Zanzibar Development Vision 2050

1.1 Agricultural Production ………………………...…………………………………………………………….11

1.2 Industrialisation and Trade ………………………………..……………………………………………….14

1.3 Tourism ……………………..……………………………………………………………………………………..17

1.4 Blue Economy …………………..……………………………………………………………………………….19

1.5 Oil and Gas ……………………………….……………………….……………………………………………...21

1.6 Creative and Digital Economy ………………………….………………………………………………...22

1.7 Finance and Investment ………………….…………………………………………………………………24 Pillar II: Human Capital and Social Services ……………….……………………..…………………….…………..27

2.1 Education and Training ………………...…………….…………………………………………………….29

2.2 Research and Innovation ……………...…………………………………………………………………..32

2.3 Health …………………………...………………………………………………………………………………..34

2.4 Water, Sanitation and Hygiene …………………… …………………………………………………….37

2.5 Social Protection and Employment ……………….…………………………………………………...39

2.6 Culture, Heritage and Sports ……………… …………………………………………………………….42 Pillar III: Infrastructural Linkages ………………………………………………………..…………………………….44

3.1 Housing and Settlements …………………… …………………………………………………………….46

3.2 Land Transportation ……………………… ………………………………………………………………..48

3.3 Seaports and Marine Transportation ………………………………………………………………….50

3.4 Airports and Air Transportation …………………………….. ………………………………………...52

3.5 Energy ………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………..54

3.6 Information and Communications ……………………………………………………………………..56 Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Pillar IV: Governance and Resilience …………………………………………………………………..……………….58

4.1 Land Utilisation and Management …………………………………………………..………………….60

4.2 The Environment and Climate Change …………………..………………….. ……………………...62

4.3 Safety, Security and Disaster Management …………………………..……………………………..64

4.4 Governing Institutions and Public Services …………….…………………………………………..66 Making the Vision a Reality …………………………...…………………………………………………………………..68 Glossary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………70 v | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAKIA Abeid Amani Karume International Airport AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome AU African Union CSOs Civil Society Organisations DPs Development Partners ENR Environment and Natural Resources FDI Foreign Direct Investment FEZ Free Economic Zone GDP Gross Domestic Product HEI Higher Education Institution HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus ICT Information and Communications Technology LGAs Local Government Authorities LMIC Low and Middle-Income Country MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MSMEs Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises MVA Manufacturing Value Added M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NCDs Non-Communicable Diseases NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations N/A Not Available O&G Oil and Gas PPP Public-Private Partnership PWDs People with Disabilities RE Renewable Energy RGoZ Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar R&D Research and Development SDGs Sustainable Development Goals STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics STI Science, Technology and Innovation TBD To be determined TCRA Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority UMIS Upper-Middle Income Status URT United Republic of Tanzania WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene ZDV50 Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 ZPC Zanzibar Planning Commission ZSGRP Zanzibar Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | vi INTRODUCTION Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 (henceforth Vision 2050 or ZDV50) is a long-term national development plan formulated by the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar (RGoZ) to guide Zanzibar’s overall development agenda from the year 2020 to 2050. ZDV50 has the overarching aspiration of lifting Zanzibar economically and socially to attain Upper-Middle Income Status (UMIS)1 by 2050. This goal cannot be achieved without equitable, sustainable and balanced improvements in the standard of living of all Zanzibaris. Therefore, the Vision stresses that the national direction for development in the next 30 years must prioritise inclusive and pro-poor policies that target wide- reaching strategic considerations of the economic, social, political and environmental dimensions. Vision 2050 serves as a successor plan to Vision 2020, which covered the 20-year period from 2000 to 2020. The Vision also builds on the base of Results for Prosperity, which was a government initiative to bolster multisectoral development for the core economic sectors. ZDV50 focuses on addressing the present shortcomings and broadening its scope to wider-ranging commitments, both of which are required to attain the underlined objectives. The Vision is reinforced by the spirit of the Zanzibar Revolution of 1964 as well as Zanzibar’s rich culture, which emphasises the peaceful coexistence of people of different ethnicities, faiths and beliefs. ZDV50 is based on two guiding principles: our aspirations and inspirational leadership. Our aspirations underscore the importance of taking active ownership of our future based on our own wishes and values: the Vision is by Zanzibaris and for Zanzibaris. For the next 30 years, we must remain fully accountable in fulfilling these targets in order to translate Vision 2050 from an aspiration to reality. 1 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Inspirational leadership requires us to carve our future with full recognition of past successes and setbacks both in Zanzibar and elsewhere. This is achieved through evidence-based development planning. In the Zanzibari context, the preparation of Vision 2050 has inextricable links to the evaluation of Vision 2020, providing quantifiable evidence on the performance of the existing planning framework. Internationally, the vision is inspired by best practices in East Africa, small island states and other relevant development stories as well as our international commitments, Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union Agenda 2063. These are in line with our untapped potential and strategic position. BUILDING ON OUR PAST: VISION 2020 “Transforming Zanzibar by the year 2020 through an unprecedented socio-economic transformation and development to achieve middle income status; characterised by increasing levels of industrialisation, competitiveness, quality livelihoods and good governance and rule of law; and having in place an educated and pro-learning society with distinct culture and values.” Vision 2020 was the first long-term development vision for Zanzibar since the 1964 Revolution. Vision 2020’s evaluation reveals that Zanzibar has successfully achieved its overall objective, having qualified for lower-middle income status ahead of plan based on income per capita. The success of Zanzibar Vision 2020, built on the strong developmental and societal foundations of the 1964 Revolution, is visible across all walks of life. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 2 A SUCCESS STORY The evaluation of Vision 2020 demonstrates a high level of achievement of the vision’s objectives. The evaluation also revealed gaps in the implementation of Vision 2020, which are addressed in ZDV50. These include:  Slightly below average GDP growth rate (7% in 2019 vs target of 9-10%),  Dominance of agriculture in employment (40.6% in 2014) rather than the modern sectors, and  High infant mortality rate (45 in 2014/15) far above the projected 20 per thousand live births. 3| Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 The success of Vision 2020 spans all productive sectors from the economy to social services, wellbeing, culture and our identity. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 4 VISION 2050 “To attain Upper Middle-Income Status by the year 2050 through sustainable and inclusive human development” Our vision is centred on human development as we want improvements in economic growth to be accompanied by higher overall standard of living as well as the attainment of near-zero extreme poverty2 in Zanzibar. As part of this holistic planning perspective, the vision is shaped by four pillars. Each pillar is subdivided into different priority areas, reflecting the layers of Zanzibar’s economy and society. Every priority area in turn consists of aspirations for the next 30 years and targeted performance indicators. 5 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Pillar I ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION OBJECTIVE A structural transformation of Zanzibar’s productive capabilities through economic modernisation and diversification with a focus on export-oriented and technology-driven development, translating national comparative advantage to competitive advantage, characterised by openness, macroeconomic stability, high saving and investment rates, market allocation, pragmatic leadership and strong private sector engagement as growth enablers. OVERVIEW In the last 10 years, Zanzibar has made considerable gains in several economic dimensions (see figure 1). As of 2019, the country has enjoyed relatively high rates of economic growth, with annual GDP growth in the last 10 years averaging at 6.1% at constant prices, with GDP reaching TZS 3,078 billion. Zanzibar’s population has also continued to expand, reaching 1,621,000, with an annual increase of 2.8%. Furthermore, per capita income has grown, reaching USD 1,114 (TZS 2,549,000) at current prices. Headline inflation has been in the single digits since 2012, with a low and stable reading of 2.7% in 2019. Economic performance has thus been sufficiently strong for Zanzibar to graduate from low income to lower-middle income status in 2019 ahead of Vision 2020. However, growth has been erratic and neither robust nor inclusive enough. Likewise, the envisaged structural transformation happened but at a slower pace. Accordingly, the economy remains less diversified, with modern sectors picking up at an ad hoc and slower pace as well as a dependence on subsistence-based agriculture and tourism. Currently the economic multiplier generated through these activities is suboptimal, resulting in low productivity and a high trade deficit. Indeed, there is considerable untapped potential for forward and backward linkages through import substitution and export-oriented development both on land and from the sea. Despite strong overall economic Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 6 growth, the rapid population rise has lowered effective per capita income growth. Under the circumstances, and considering the need to turn the population dynamics from a “curse” to “demographic dividend”, the more practical route will be to achieve sustained higher economic output. Figure 1: GDP growth at constant 2015 prices (%), annual inflation rate (%) [left] and GDP per capita at constant 2015 prices (USD) [right], 2010-19 Moving forward, Zanzibar’s transition from lower-middle income to upper-middle income status in the next 30 years must be supported by strengthened economic fundamentals. In part, this will involve a reorientation of the economy away from subsistence-based agriculture to higher value- added activities, both in the primary and secondary sectors, as well as ensuring the service sector is enlarged beyond high-volume tourism. For inclusive growth to benefit as many Zanzibaris as possible, these pursuits will emphasise and exploit national and regional comparative advantages. Further economic gains may be reaped by recognising and reinforcing the strong backward and forward linkages between economic sectors, such as the contribution of agriculture to tourism and industry as well as the interplay between industry and tourism. These efforts need to be paired with an emphasis on creating a conducive business environment to promote private sector investment and expand production capacity on the back of export-oriented growth, bearing in mind Zanzibar’s strategic position to serve the Tanzanian, East African and international markets. Another crucial ingredient in the transformation agenda is the due 7 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 recognition of emerging sectors, especially the operationalisation of the blue economy. As a small island nation, Zanzibar has the potential to develop a thriving blue economy backed by the effective and sustainable exploitation of marine resources and related areas through the development of a competitive advantage in fisheries and aquaculture, coastal and marine tourism, marine trade and infrastructure as well as oil and gas. To review the success of these policies, it is recommended that Zanzibar commit to strengthening poverty assessment and multi-dimensional poverty reduction targeting in addition to the performance indicators highlighted. Priority Areas Benchmarks SDGs Agenda 2063 Aspirations 1, 2, 7 Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 8 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY Stable macroeconomic performance is the cornerstone of inclusive economic transformation, serving as a necessary condition for the fulfilment of the Vision’s objectives as well as supporting the security of the country as a whole. Zanzibar generally benefits from strong macroeconomic fundamentals in terms of growth and inflation, but certain volatilities such as currency fluctuations have existed from time to time since 2000. For a developing country like Zanzibar, inclusive transformation connotes tackling unemployment and lifting people from poverty. In the next 30 years, Zanzibar shall oversee the expansion of its middle class, accompanied by an increase in domestic consumption and the growth of its local market in line with supply-side developments. A secure society therefore requires a productive workforce able to tap into development opportunities and an emerging market alongside the ability of all Zanzibaris to access opportunities for food and income security. Zanzibar has made strides in these areas in line with economic growth, but there is a need to intensify efforts moving forward to ensure no one is left behind. Table 1 depicts key macroeconomic and socio-economic indicators, comparing the 2019 baseline with targets for 2030, 2040 and 2050. The baseline and targets for specific sectoral indicators are discussed further in the subsequent priority areas. Targets set assume implementation of economic diversification efforts; absence of long-term supply and demand shocks; annual population growth at 2.5% until 2030, 2% until 2040 and 1.85% until 2050. Table 1: Key macroeconomic and socio-economic indicators, comparing the 2019 baseline with targets for 2030, 2040 and 2050. 9 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Figure 2 meanwhile highlights the composition of the economy by sector in 2019 as well as targets for 2030, 2040 and 2050. As part of efforts towards greater economic diversification, industry is expected to nearly double in share from 18% in 2019 to 35% in 2050 while agriculture as a share of GDP is estimated to halve from 21% in 2019 to 10% in 2050. Given that Zanzibar is a service- based economy, services – supported by tourism, creative industries and digital economy, the financial sector and relevant emerging sectors – will continue to be the largest contributor to GDP over the next 30 years, though its share of GDP shall decline slightly as industrialisation picks up. Figure 2: Projection of the composition of the economy by sector in 2019 as well as targets for 2030, 2040 and 2050. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 10 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Strategic Direction: Transforming agriculture from subsistence- based to export-oriented production in a sustainable and climate resilient manner through value addition for greater food independence BACKGROUND As Zanzibar is in its early stages of development, agriculture continues to contribute to a significant share of GDP and employment, and the sector is predominantly subsistence-based, with food security standing at 48.9% in 2019/20. In recent years, the government has invested considerably in agriculture by providing agricultural input subsidies and machinery; building capacity for increased production and productivity in crops, fisheries and livestock; research for development and training. However, given inevitable time lags in realising the returns to investment, the impact of these measures has not been fully observed. Typical of its nature in a developing country, Zanzibar’s agriculture has been characterised by erratic production trends, limited productivity and some inefficiencies because not enough land is used to grow high-value crops. 11 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Farmers still require assistance in gaining critical technical knowledge of irrigation, animal husbandry, use of fertiliser, breeding as well as pest and disease control. In the fisheries sub-sector, there should be greater focus on commercialisation, effective value-chain development through clustering and ensuring fish stock meets export demand. The forestry sub-sector shall equally need similar attention and concerted efforts. In the next 30 years, climate resilience will play an increasingly important role in the productivity of agriculture and its ability to provide food and nutritional security for Zanzibar. Therefore, agricultural development in Zanzibar should reflect sustainable and climate-smart agricultural practices as insurance against climate change. Aspirations

1.1.1 Intensified and diversified production and productivity of high-quality crops, livestock4, fisheries, aquaculture as well as marine and forestry products, focusing initially on labour- intensive production and subsequently developing capacity in capital-intensive means of production;

1.1.2 Investment in appropriate high quality and facilitative inputs, technologies, research and capacity development to produce quality products for exports and local markets, including tourism, in line with the green and blue economies, focusing on nutrition-sensitive agriculture5 to achieve high food and nutritional security;

1.1.3 A thriving, competitive private sector of agribusinesses, reinforced by effective farmer organisations, focused on improving and expanding production, marketing, value addition and regular access to market information for export and domestic markets;

1.1.4 Climate-smart agriculture that builds climate resilience by incorporating appropriate financing strategies, risk management measures and agricultural insurance for agricultural value-chain actors;

1.1.5 Enhanced agricultural extension services that equip agricultural value-chain actors with appropriate technologies in crop and livestock husbandry practices, aquaculture, marine and natural resource management; and

1.1.6 Robust policies and legislation with strong institutions, adequate capacities, financing and coordination for agricultural transformation, reinforced by considerations of sustainability and climate change resilience in the development of agricultural plans. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 12 Key Performance Indicators Targets set are based on the following assumptions: continued intensification, no natural hazards, sustainable input supply and technological development. It is expected that agriculture should contribute to a reduced share of GDP and employment as its productivity rises (though until 2030, agricultural employment will grow as the sector shifts from labour-intensive to capital-intensive production). The role of agriculture by 2050 will be to provide raw materials, inputs and further opportunities for industrialisation as well as providing food and nutrition to society. * Baseline figure is for anchovies only. ** Figures refer to the production of rice, sugar and wheat flour only. *** Figures refer to the production of cloves, clove stem and seaweed. **** Targets are based on the assumption of reduced dependence on firewood as a major forestry product in light of greater O&G usage over time as well as intensified production of wooden products and other forestry products. Our aspirations support the development of an integrated value-chain that emphasises agro-processing and value addition 13 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 INDUSTRIALISATION AND TRADE Strategic Direction: Developing national industrial and trade potential through a focus on targeted export-oriented sectors for greater value addition BACKGROUND The RGoZ recently introduced several institutions to support trade development and industrialisation through micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), covering product quality and consumer protection. Although industry is a key input for trade, the linkages between the two sectors need to be optimised further. Current industrial activity, including repackaging textiles and bottling water, is not sufficiently export-oriented and does not align perfectly with national comparative advantage. In particular, agro-processing remains small in scope despite high regional export demand and commercialisation potential. As a consequence, Zanzibar’s trade volume is low with limited export value and production, placing the country at a competitive disadvantage in the region. Trade prospects are further challenged by the underutilisation of free economic zones (FEZs) and limited export-based infrastructure (see 3.3). Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 14 Moving forward, Zanzibar has the potential to accelerate economic growth, promote skilled and semi-skilled labour and diversify sources of revenue by turning its comparative advantage in marine and agricultural resources into a competitive advantage. There is scope to add value and improve Zanzibar’s trade balance by commercialising cloves, fisheries, oils, seaweed and dairy through canning, drying, refinement and distillation. Other key industries with export potential include salt refining, jewellery, wooden products, electronics and handicrafts, capitalising on the linkages between tourism, agriculture and trade. Aspirations

1.2.1 A well-developed and competitive industrial base for domestic and export markets through import substitution and export orientation respectively where appropriate;

1.2.2 A sustainable industrialisation programme focused on increasing export volume and manufacturing value added (MVA) through a mix of capital and labour-intensive industry based on comparative advantage as follows:  A strategic approach to light manufacturing in agro-processing consistent with export demand, targeting all segments of the value-chain for greater commercialisation and value addition,  A competitive private sector, comprising businesses of all sizes, including suitable multinational corporations, backed by strong business support services with strategies to promote local industry and linkages with agriculture and tourism,  The operationalisation of heavy industry in oil and gas where applicable;

1.2.3 A dynamic industrial and trade policy framework that regularly reviews targeted industries as well as their export and investment incentives based on emerging sectors, international market trends and shifting comparative advantage;

1.2.4 Streamlined and coordinated mechanisms for trade within Zanzibar, between the RGoZ and URT, in East Africa and the Tripartite Free Trade Area, through the World Trade Organization and others;

1.2.5 Strong local investment in industry through established industrial training modules, appropriate incentives, protection and access to finance for local investors;

1.2.6 High quality and volume of locally manufactured products and services attained through the provision of appropriate reciprocal control mechanisms6 by linking incentives to performance and standards to foster the growth of MSMEs to large-scale businesses; and

1.2.7 Favourable internal and external infrastructure for trade and investment in export- processing industrial parks, including operationalised FEZs, in line with a cluster approach, prioritising activities based on regional comparative advantage to maximise competitive advantage. 15| Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Key Performance Indicators Industrialisation and trade are closely linked, with the extensive expansion of the former serving as a crucial input to promote our brand through the growth of trade value and volume Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 16 TOURISM Strategic Direction: Building an integrated, inclusive and sustainable tourism sector as a reliable economic industry and a market for other sectors by promoting high-value tourism, creating decent jobs for locals and ensuring that most tourist dollars spent stay in Zanzibar BACKGROUND Tourism is among the leading sectors in Zanzibar’s economy, creating 35,000 direct service jobs in 2019, with an average annual growth rate in tourist arrivals of 17% between 2008 and 2018. Acknowledging the multiplier effects that tourism earnings have on employment creation and GDP growth at large, the RGoZ recently introduced the ‘Tourism for All’ vision to make tourism more integrated, inclusive and sustainable. However, the sector continues to be characterised by insufficient linkages with agriculture and other socio-economic sectors, resulting in the leakage of employment and tourism dollars out of Zanzibar. This is because: (i) hotels prefer to buy imported produce due to the perception of better quality and quantity; (ii) hotels prefer to hire more skilled foreign nationals, especially in management; (iii) challenges in enforcement lead some hotels to engage in tax avoidance and (iv) tourism products 17 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 are low-profile and not sufficiently marketed. Therefore, all national initiatives in tourism should recognise the linkages that the sector shares with agriculture, industry and human resources more broadly. Aspirations

1.3.1 A strong, sustainable and resilient market for high-value tourism marked by high average expenditure per tourist through the prioritisation of investment in luxury and boutique hotels as well as improving infrastructural links, bearing in mind the cultural and environmental impact of these economic activities;

1.3.2 Diversified tourism products in line with Zanzibar’s natural and cultural heritage as well as commercial potential to accelerate market expansion, including the domestic market;

1.3.3 Strong linkages between tourism and agricultural supply chain actors by incentivising tourist establishments to purchase and source local products and minimise imports;

1.3.4 High quality local labour force with decent work, focusing on youth employability, through practical tourism training and apprenticeships; and

1.3.5 Strong local content in the tourism industry, supported by appropriate incentives and awareness programmes for all stakeholders while ensuring corporate social responsibility and investment. Key Performance Indicators We aim to strengthen our tourism label to reinforce Zanzibar's position as the pearl of the Indian Ocean Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 18 BLUE ECONOMY Strategic Direction: Effectively coordinating and managing the development of the ocean and its endowments for significant contribution to economic prosperity BACKGROUND Small in its land area, Zanzibar has a vast area covered by the Indian Ocean, both in its territorial waters as well as its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This represents a major comparative advantage in the cross-cutting blue economy sector, including in maritime trade and transportation, fisheries development (as a seafood hub and for industrialisation), further tourism development, resource extraction, including oil and gas (O&G) and R&D. Though interventions in marine-related sub-sectors of Zanzibar’s economy have consistently taken place, this blue side of the economy is currently under-exploited and haphazardly developed. Zanzibar has recently developed the Blue Economy Policy to formalise blue development as a growth generator for the next decade in the context of employment generation and poverty reduction. This policy defines the scope of the blue economy under four key areas, namely fisheries and aquaculture; marine trade; sustainable marine tourism and energy, comprising renewable energy (RE) and O&G. It also outlines the institutional framework, calling for a coordinating institution within the RGoZ to 19 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 oversee blue economy-related undertakings. Overall, as Zanzibar further integrates into the Indian Ocean cluster of small island economies, a cohesive blue economy framework will become increasingly important as a means of strengthening linkages between the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. This will involve the effective and sustainable coordinated management of Zanzibar’s natural and human resources, both in the marine environment and on land, thereby representing a considerable share of the country’s GDP in the 30 years to come. Aspirations

1.4.1 A cohesive blue economy captured through sectoral linkages across agriculture (1.1), industrialisation and trade (1.2), tourism (1.3) and maritime transportation (3.3) as follows:  Industrial value addition, including the commercialisation of fisheries and aquaculture, in line with domestic and export market demand,  Expansion of sustainable marine tourism to include undeveloped markets for ecotourism 7 to promote job creation,  Efficient and reliable maritime infrastructure network and services, including seaports and undersea pipelines, to facilitate trade and passenger flows as well as strengthening tourism demand;

1.4.2 High expertise in managing blue economy-related technologies through capacity building and investment in R&D to ensure local ownership and greater contribution to the general economy;

1.4.3 Sustainable exploitation of marine-related resources and products within an operational blue economy framework guided by marine spatial planning, environmental preservation and clear investment procedures; and

1.4.4 Continued adherence to and support for regional and international blue economy institutions and initiatives in order to preserve the marine environment and promote economic cooperation. Key Performance Indicators This priority area does not have any indicators as it is emerging and multisectoral in nature, thereby lacking baseline data and suitable targets. However, successor short-term strategies and the evaluation of ZDV50 in 2030 should incorporate the following indicators where applicable: (i) Blue economy share to GDP, (ii) Proportion of total employment in the blue economy sectors, (iii) Gross investment in the blue economy (USD millions). Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 20 OIL AND GAS Strategic Direction: Maximising the potential to generate value and employment from oil and gas BACKGROUND Preliminary data suggest there may be commercially viable petroleum deposits around Zanzibar. Lo- cal exposure to and awareness of sustainable O&G practices is low as there has been a limited history of commercial crude oil extraction. Therefore, Zanzibar should prepare for the possibility of finding O&G and managing it well to avoid the natural resource curse. O&G in Zanzibar may come from two sources: onshore and offshore production, thereby having synergies with the land and blue economies respectively. Aspirations

1.5.1 A comprehensive mechanism for sustainable O&G exploration, operationalising O&G-related policies and related regulatory frameworks;

1.5.2 Substantial infrastructural and investment capacity, human capital and revenue management related to sustainable O&G exploration and commercialisation; and

1.5.3 Inclusive O&G investment that promotes local community development through technology transfer, training and local content requirements where applicable. Key Performance Indicators This priority area does not have any indicators as it is emerging and contingent on the availability of substantial O&G deposits, thereby lacking baseline data and suitable targets. However, successor short- term strategies and the evaluation of ZDV50 in 2030 should incorporate the following indicators where applicable: (i) Share of O&G industry to GDP, (ii) Proportion of total employment in O&G, (iii) Growth rate of O&G industry, (iv) Volume and value of O&G exported. 21 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 CREATIVE AND DIGITAL ECONOMY Strategic Direction: Pursuing the development of the creative and digital economy to diversify and complement the service sector BACKGROUND The creative industries cover a range of tertiary sectors including advertising, arts and crafts, design, entertainment, architecture, books, media and software. There is potential to harness innovation in Zanzibar, particularly among its youth population, as this resource is not finite. Currently, there are annual national-level cultural festivals targeting separate areas of the creative industries, including the Zanzibar International Film Festival, Sauti za Busara and Utamaduni wa Mzanzibari. Moving forward, special attention must be given to the development of the creative industries to enable Zanzibar further diversify and modernise its economy, produce intangible cultural exports as a commodity as well as diversifying the service sector beyond tourism. This will not only create jobs and generate an additional source of income, but it will also contribute to poverty reduction, especially among the youth. Zanzibar also stands to benefit from the digital economy as digitalisation picks up pace globally, both as an economic industry by its own merit as well as an enabler for the prosperity of other sectors. A critical tool in the digital economy framework is the widespread use of information and Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 22 communications technology (ICT). To date, the RGoZ has recognised the importance of ICT to the economy by investing in communications infrastructure (National Fibre Backbone) and administrative arrangements. In line with this, the private sector has also invested in both infrastructure and services. Further ICT investment could empower future entrepreneurs to innovate and be discovered, particularly given its lower capital requirements than for labour- intensive businesses. Investment in ICT training, education and R&D can catalyse the growth of high-tech services and industry as well as establishing onshore and offshore ICT businesses. Meanwhile, recent technological advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics, big data and blockchain technologies pose an opportunity for Zanzibar both as a consumer and a developer. Aspirations

1.6.1 Strong and world-class segments of the creative industries, with high and adequately protected domestic production for both local and international audiences;

1.6.2 High synergy between the creative industries and tourism supported by investment and training in complementary activities, such as handicraft, music and other activities;

1.6.3 Commercialised technology-focused innovation in line with developments in ICT and emerging technologies for use in government, business and trade, including the development of e-commerce for domestic, regional and international markets;

1.6.4 Solid support and training for human capital development in ICT, including entrepreneurship at vocational institutes and universities; and

1.6.5 A school curriculum incorporating ICT and other relevant developments in science, technology and innovation (STI) at all levels, with opportunities for students to learn coding from early levels. Key Performance Indicators 23 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 FINANCE AND INVESTMENT Strategic Direction: Creating a sizeable and competitive private sector, with an innovative financial sector, as well as strengthening domestic resource mobilisation BACKGROUND Zanzibar recognises the role of the private sector in bringing about socio-economic development through finance and investment. The priority area covers three main themes, namely (i) financial sector and services, (ii) investment and (iii) public financial management. Firstly, the financial sector is a major tool needed to promote development as an economy becomes increasingly complex, requiring new financial markets to increase financial security and capital building opportunities. Key areas of focus here include offshore and inshore banking, insurance and capital markets. Financial inclusion also extends to households: currently, about 43% of Zanzibaris remain financially excluded and only 27.7% use banking services in 2019/20. Secondly, investment covers the creation of a seamless business environment for the private sector. The current investment climate needs better operationalisation in areas such as tax regime harmonisation to stimulate foreign direct investment (FDI) and private domestic investment. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 24 Finally, this should be accompanied by a solid public financial management agenda, encompassing domestic resource mobilisation and development financing. The cash-based economy would benefit from more mechanisms and tools in place to enforce and improve revenue collection, thereby further reducing institutional dependence on financing from development partners. In terms of modalities, the government has identified public-private partnerships (PPP) as a viable means of effectively addressing the constraints of financing, management and the maintenance of public goods and services. The full engagement of the private sector, coupled by the adoption of PPP in Zanzibar, could enable the government to better fulfil its responsibilities in the efficient delivery of infrastructural facilities and services. Aspirations Financial sector and services

1.7.1 High financial inclusion catalysed by effective coordination between the public and private sectors in sustainable credit provision, long-term financing, consumer protection, credit referencing and various financial products; streamlined informal finance and microfinance institutions; improved access to insurance services and a conducive environment for electronic payment methods to reduce cash dependence;

1.7.2 Enhanced utilisation of financial markets through the introduction of stock exchange, capital markets and offshore banking;

1.7.3 An enabling environment for effective capital flows between Zanzibar and its diaspora marked by formalised remittance procedures; Investment

1.7.4 An attractive destination for domestic and FDI with harmonised tax laws as well as improved registration and management of business, supported by a regular review of corporate tax exemptions and regular research on optimal rates of taxation; Public Financial Management

1.7.5 Efficient revenue collection mechanisms reinforced by a stronger tax regime, the identification of new opportunities and the deployment of modern fiscal technologies;

1.7.6 A diversified framework for resource mobilisation marked by mutually beneficial cooperation with the developed world through joint ventures, technology transfer and information sharing to reduce aid dependency; and

1.7.7 Effective exploitation of new financing windows for investment through PPP projects, targeting the following areas with support from the diaspora where applicable: 25 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050  Expanded coverage and modernised infrastructural services,  Reciprocated technology and knowhow between private and public sectors,  Streamlined procurement and operating procedures with innovative financing strategies to attract institutional investors. Key Performance Indicators Investment projects are part of Zanzibar's aim to become a more attractive destination for FDI in the region Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 26 Pillar II HUMAN CAPITAL AND SOCIAL SERVICES OBJECTIVE Developing a healthy, competitive, innovative and productive human capital base, supported by reliable and sustainable social services for all, in order to contribute effectively to national and global development. OVERVIEW Development cannot be achieved without people at the forefront. Human capital is therefore instrumental for turning any vision into reality. With wide-ranging technological progress taking place across the world, Zanzibar needs a healthy workforce with relevant skills and talents to serve the local labour market as well as to contribute and compete as global citizens. The stock of human capital has to be served by adequate social services, with education and health in particular as important flows needed to mould the capable and competitive Zanzibaris of tomorrow. Significant achievements in the provision of basic educational, healthcare and other social services have been observed in the country. However, as Zanzibar enters the league of middle-income nations, there is a need to take the human capital base to greater heights. This would involve strengthening the fundamentals in terms of the delivery of soft infrastructure and related services to ensure no Zanzibari is left behind. 27 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Priority Areas Benchmarks SDGs Agenda 2063 Aspirations 1, 5, 6 Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 28 EDUCATION AND TRAINING Strategic Direction: Transforming the education system to support quality inclusive education and training programmes to build human capital that serves the needs for economic and social development BACKGROUND In the past 20 years, education in Zanzibar has seen several key developments to complement the policy of free education introduced in 1964 following the Zanzibar Revolution. These include greater emphasis on teacher training, the mass construction of modern schools, improved student enrolment rates, particularly at primary level, and the establishment of new higher education institutions (see also 2.2). Nevertheless, there remains a challenge in curriculum design across all levels. Pre-primary and primary education does not adequately promote the acquisition of basic knowledge of literacy and numeracy. At secondary level and beyond, there is not enough focus on higher-order skills, such as critical thinking, creativity and innovation, as well as labour market-oriented skills development in students’ specialisations. Vocational education is currently designed for school dropouts, limiting the 29 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 scope and potential for developing a diversified workforce. Further, some schools struggle with the provision of hard infrastructure, including sufficient classrooms, and soft infrastructure, such as teaching and learning resources ranging from libraries to science labs and ICT equipment. There are also noticeable gaps in the quality and quantity of qualified teachers in science and mathematics. Aspirations

2.1.1 Inclusive access to quality education at all levels with a focus on raising transition rates from one level to another, under a diversified and sustainable financing scheme;

2.1.2 A highly competitive and motivated workforce of teachers with an established teacher competency framework to maintain the quality of education;

2.1.3 Curricula that reflect the needs of the time at all levels, with a clear focus on basic knowledge of literacy, numeracy, digital literacy, culture and citizenship at pre-primary and primary levels as well as building core skills and competencies in specific specialisations at higher levels, which go in hand with building critical thinking and innovation;

2.1.4 Industry-ready graduates equipped with professional skills acquired through internships, apprenticeships, entrepreneurship programmes, certification, vocational and on-the-job training in line with relevant employment opportunities;

2.1.5 Optimal pre-primary education that promotes parental participation and involvement in early childhood learning;

2.1.6 An optimum school environment with adequate hard and soft infrastructure for learners at all levels, ensuring greater inclusiveness through targeted arrangements for children with special needs, including the disabled and those at risk of dropping out;

2.1.7 A streamlined education system that incorporates religious education, including madrasahs; and

2.1.8 A resilient education system prepared for crisis situations through the development of emergency contingency strategies to minimise disruptions to teaching and learning. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 30 Key Performance Indicators Our agenda is to focus on equipping students from the early stages of learning with relevant skills to prepare them for the demands of the 21st century and beyond 31 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 RESEARCH AND INNOVATION Strategic Direction: Investing in cutting-edge impact-oriented scientific and socio-economic research to address the developmental needs of the nation BACKGROUND Human development is witnessing a new phase of growth, which simultaneously affects and is influenced by the level of knowledge and the size of the knowledge economy. Impact-oriented research is a key component of both scientific and socio-economic work, whether in universities or policymaking, to ensure development is focused on improving livelihoods. In recognition of this development perspective, the RGoZ is implementing an ambitious plan to establish research institutions in applied science and technology, supplementing the research initiatives of existing universities. While initiatives on one aspect of research are underway, socio-economic research has not been well institutionalised. As a result, Zanzibar needs a sustainable source of evidence-based empirical research as well as policy analysis tools for truly inclusive development. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 32 Aspirations

2.2.1 High capacity of local higher education institutions to conduct innovative and cutting-edge research that is directly applicable to industry and societal development in line with internationally competitive teaching programmes;

2.2.2 Sound national research agenda supported by sustainable investment and planning mechanisms with clear identification of priorities to empower universities and research institutions to carry out high-impact STI and socio-economic research;

2.2.3 Well-reflected research outputs in government planning and operations, supported by the high availability of data and information;

2.2.4 Equitable and affordable access to information and knowledge across all segments of the population, bridging the digital divide through appropriate public policy strategies in line with the principles of digital development, open data and open standards; and

2.2.5 Strong performance and highly impact-oriented results that link research to coordination and reporting mechanisms in the public and private sectors. Key Performance Indicators In line with our development goals for research and innovation, engagement in scientific research as early as secondary education is key. 33 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 HEALTH Strategic Direction: Maintaining an equitable and sustainable universal healthcare system accessible to all, provided by highly skilled healthcare professionals and supported by modern medical technologies and facilities BACKGROUND Since the 1964 Revolution, Zanzibar has benefited from significant improvements in the provision of free health services for all. In recent years, the RGoZ has emphasised the development of the health sector by heavily investing in upgrading healthcare infrastructure facilities from primary to tertiary levels, further providing specialised medical services and equipment as well as promoting medical and health research initiatives. This is reinforced by a promising increase in medical professionals as well as capacity building initiatives through the establishment of medical faculties at local institutions. Indeed, in line with the government’s efforts, life expectancy has risen from 48 years in 2000 to 65 in 2012. However, there is a need for further attention in upscaling the current achievements in order to maintain the health and well-being of the people. Health financing, standing at 3.1% of GDP in 2019, Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 34 should remain sustainable in order to ensure high accessibility of health services, equity in health service provision and preparedness for health security issues in crisis situations. While there is extensive coverage of health facilities, some facilities struggle to operate efficiently and effectively due to inadequate staff and equipment. Though efforts to control HIV/AIDS, malaria and gastro-intestinal diseases have been relatively successful, there is an increasing concern of emerging non-communicable diseases (NCDs) as well as perinatal, neonatal and infant mortality. Aspirations

2.3.1 A highly reliable and accessible primary healthcare sector that incorporates strong health promotion and community health programmes targeting the prevention and management of non-communicable and communicable diseases, including HIV/AIDS;

2.3.2 Universal health coverage with emergency medical care and referral services across Zanzibar to improve access to healthcare in underrepresented areas;

2.3.3 A modern healthcare delivery system supported through effective investment plans and related interventions with a focus on human capital development, research, health infrastructure, medical technology, digital health systems, quality control as well as specialised medical and health practitioners and services;

2.3.4 Effective pre-service training programmes to develop industry-ready healthcare providers receiving continuous professional development, with attractive compensation packages and motivation;

2.3.5 Inclusive, high quality services for the elderly and people with disabilities as well as in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, child and adolescent health to reduce mortality and malnutrition as well as to manage population growth;

2.3.6 A multisectoral approach to healthcare at the forefront of social services by strengthening linkages to education through training; to water, sanitation and hygiene through disease prevention; and to tourism through medical tourism where appropriate;

2.3.7 A resilient healthcare system with adequate contingency plans to maintain the high coverage of essential services in crisis situations; and

2.3.8 Diversified and sustainable healthcare financing for quality service provision to all. 35 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Key Performance Indicators Healthcare is at the forefront of social services, with future efforts on ensuring modern diagnostic services in line with up-to-date technologies and highly skilled manpower Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 36 WATER, SANITATION AND HYGIENE Strategic Direction: Towards greater accessibility, affordability and sustainability of water resources, sanitation services and hygiene practices, ensuring all households and public institutions have access to safely managed water and sanitation BACKGROUND The past 20 years have been marked by improvements in the provision of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services, including access to latrines, especially in urban areas. The number of households with access to safe and clean water has increased, following major government interventions in water sourcing and distribution. Furthermore, measures have been undertaken to ensure sustainable rainwater and solid waste management. However, due to the pressure imposed by a growing population and energy-intensive economic activities, WASH services face several operational challenges. In the water sub-sector, the main challenges are related to the maintenance and operation of water supply as well as high operational costs, while in sanitation, waste is largely collected unsustainably. 37 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Aspirations

2.4.1 Sustainable access to safe and clean drinking water facilitated by an effective water resource management master plan and associated strategies, focusing on integrated water resources management to protect the water ecosystem;

2.4.2 Diversified potable water sources reinforced by the exploration of undersea freshwater, rainwater harvesting and reuse technologies as well as seawater desalination;

2.4.3 Optimal water supply management for agriculture, tourism, industry and other economic activities supported by continuous R&D on sustainable sources;

2.4.4 Sustainable sanitation service provision through effective sanitation-focused interventions, including the enforcement of the ‘polluter pays’ principle and the construction of sewerage treatment systems for households and industry; and

2.4.5 Strong institutional framework for the sustainable and responsible collection, processing and disposal of solid, liquid and hazardous waste that focuses on empowering local government authorities (LGAs) and other relevant institutions. Key Performance Indicators * The figures are disaggregated by region as follows: Mjini Magharibi (22.9%); Kaskazini Unguja (0.5%), Kusini Unguja (0.03%), Kaskazini Pemba (0.7%) and Kusini Pemba (2.5%). Targets set are national averages. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 38 SOCIAL PROTECTION AND EMPLOYMENT Strategic Direction: Promoting a happy and stable society bolstered by social wellbeing, peaceful coexistence and decent employment, focusing on protecting vulnerable groups BACKGROUND Social protection concerns the opportunity for all Zanzibaris to live a decent, safe and secure life, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups, comprising the elderly, women, children and PWDs, to promote equity and inclusion. The RGoZ has taken various steps to promote access to social protection opportunities for vulnerable people, including the provision of special residences and a pension scheme for elderly people; loans for female and youth entrepreneurs and life support for PWDs. However, nearly 45% of Zanzibari women are employed in the informal economy and only 27.2% have right of land occupancy as of 2015 , suggesting an inequitable share of economic growth. Another commendable action taken by the RGoZ with the support of development partners is the recognition of issues of violence against women and children through the formulation of the National 39 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Plan of Action to End Violence Against Women and Children. Nevertheless, women and children continue to be at risk of violence and abuse while child marriage remains a challenge in some areas. Meanwhile, despite progress in upholding disability rights, many PWDs continue to face difficulties in finding decent employment and education. The evaluation of the Zanzibar Social Protection Policy suggests that social assistance has room for expansion. In particular, there is a need for a shock-responsive social protection scheme in crisis situations, which has been reinforced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even with a strong safety net, individuals cannot prosper in society without decent and fulfilling employment. The Labour Commission is therefore tasked with upholding labour rights and participation by addressing the reduction of child labour and youth unemployment, labour dispute settlements, employer registration and occupational health and safety. It is important that business principles uphold workers’ rights in business operations, products and services as well as business relationships throughout the supply chain. Aspirations

2.5.1 An equal and equitable society that protects and empowers women, children, PWDs and other people with vulnerable situations;

2.5.2 Extensive quality social services, including social security coverage and other safety nets for vulnerable and destitute Zanzibaris, to ensure protection against life-course shocks and livelihood risks;

2.5.3 A comprehensive, widely available system of social support services, including one-stop centres, for medical, legal, rehabilitative, psycho-social and other services for survivors of violence and victims of drug abuse, with adequate well-trained social welfare personnel to provide services, case management and follow up;

2.5.4 Inclusive access to economic empowerment, business opportunities and wealth creation, including easy access for PWDs;

2.5.5 Inclusive, sustainable and decent employment, marked by the integration of social security as part of labour and focusing on occupational safety and health, workers’ compensation, self-employment and an entrepreneurial culture;

2.5.6 Effective compliance to labour standards by enhancing labour relations, social dialogue and dispute resolution mechanisms to attain industrial harmony;

2.5.7 Innovative, flexible and inclusive skills development programmes, covering work-based learning, lifelong learning and quality apprenticeships to create more decent employment, especially for the youth;

2.5.8 Enhanced prevention of and response to retrogressive practices, such as violence against women, children and PWDs as well as child and forced labour through the Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 40 implementation of relevant national plans; and

2.5.9 Suitable standards for the accreditation and monitoring of substance abuse treatment, supporting relevant research and technology to reduce the use of drugs and other substances. Key Performance Indicators Upholding the welfare of all Zanzibaris, including PWDs, is key to building the next generation 41 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 CULTURE, HERITAGE AND SPORTS Strategic Direction: Leveraging Zanzibar’s rich history by promoting Swahili culture as a commodity, and developing sporting talent to instil pride while strengthening the national tourism brand BACKGROUND Zanzibar’s strategic location at the crossroads of the Middle East and East Africa has endowed it with a unique Swahili history and heritage, contributing to national identity and unity alongside sports. To preserve the nation’s history and promote tourism, several heritage buildings and sites have been identified and renovated in line with Stone Town’s designation as a UNESCO World Heritage Site since 2000. In sports, Zanzibar has participated in various national and regional tournaments in athletics, football and indoor sports, promoting national pride. To improve sports infrastructure, the RGoZ has recently renovated stadiums to meet international requirements as well as introducing new sporting facilities in every district. Nevertheless, strategic measures need to be deployed in order to further capitalise on the potential of both heritage and sports. Several historical buildings are in a state of disrepair, with some heritage Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 42 sites yet to be preserved to their potential, while national branding of Zanzibar’s Swahili language and culture should be strengthened. Finally, infrastructural enhancements in sports need to be accompanied by improved athletic performance to ensure Zanzibari sporting talents are recognised and able to compete nationally and internationally. Aspirations

2.6.1 A leading hub for Swahili language and culture enriched by a strong research foundation, transfer programmes and capacity building;

2.6.2 A wide appreciation for Zanzibar’s heritage, backed by a focus on the conservation, revival, management and promotion of the natural heritage, heritage sites, local arts and practices, Islamic culture and other traditional cultures to promote patriotism;

2.6.3 A competitive sports and cultural destination with modern sports, cultural and recreational infrastructure in line with international standards, including the promotion of professional sports in traditional and emerging sports; and

2.6.4 Improved athletic performance in national and international competitions developed through competitive leadership training and sports academies. Key Performance Indicators 43 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Pillar III INFRASTRUCTURAL LINKAGES OBJECTIVE Focusing on the provision of modern, high quality, accessible and reliable infrastructure within and across homes and settlements, to catalyse Zanzibar’s economic transformation by enhancing domestic, regional and international connectivity and productivity. OVERVIEW Investment in infrastructure has been treated as a high priority by the RGoZ in collaboration with development partners since the early days of the Zanzibar Revolution. In particular, the expansion of the road network has often been given a considerable budgetary share, with the aim of promoting economic development. This has been accompanied by infrastructural projects across wide sectors of the economy, including modern housing; seaports; airports; energy and telecommunication networks, to stimulate local and foreign investment, wealth creation and employment-generating activities. The overall contribution of this sector to economic growth has been promising. However, infrastructural development strategies have been constrained by limited institutional arrangements in financing mechanisms. To guarantee seamless movement of people and goods within and across Zanzibar so as to take advantage of trading and investment opportunities, the focus over the next 30 years should be on improving housing supply, road networks, adequate seaport facilities, upgrading the country’s airports and meeting rising energy demand. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 44 Priority Areas Benchmarks SDGs Agenda 2063 Aspirations 1, 2 45 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 HOUSING AND SETTLEMENTS Strategic Direction: Ensuring accessible and affordable modern housing for all through the regeneration and redistribution of settlements, without compromising on the size and quality of land and related resources BACKGROUND Since 1964, the RGoZ has placed emphasis on the provision of proper housing for the population. Several interventions have taken place to ensure all Zanzibaris have a comfortable roof over their heads, including the construction of flats in a number of urban centres in Unguja and Pemba as well as the recent planning and development of modern settlements, such as Kwahani, Mbweni and Fumba. However, as the population grows, unplanned settlements, especially in and near urban centres, continue to be a challenge. This is in line with the low quality of housing and accompanying infrastructure, such as water, sanitation and energy. This calls for wider expansion and modernisation of settlements including the establishment of new urban centres and towns, as earmarked in the Zanzibar Spatial Development Master Plan (ZSDMP). Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 46 Aspirations

3.1.1 Universal access to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic quality services with adequate access to key transportation networks, emphasised by the upgrading of unplanned settlements and regeneration of urban areas into modern settlement;

3.1.2 Eco-friendly, sustainable, innovative and cost-effective building methods to avoid misallocation of resources and environmental destruction; and

3.1.3 Active private sector engagement in real estate to boost housing supply in earmarked urban settlements across districts and towns. Key Performance Indicators By 2050, we envision that the majority of households will enjoy access to a high standard of life in modern settlements 47 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 LAND TRANSPORTATION Strategic Direction: Building sustainable, safe and environmentally friendly all-weather urban and rural road networks to support socio-economic development BACKGROUND The government has embarked on improving the main entry roads to Zanzibar City and other townships based on strategic requirements and priorities identified in the Zanzibar Transport Master Plan (2008). Road networks are the only source of land transportation in Zanzibar, connecting townships, suburbs and rural economic and social activities. As of 2019, 62.7% of roads are paved, but the road system in many areas is characterised by inadequate finishing (road furniture), weak drainage, limited space for expansion and insufficient street pavements. Collectively, this backlog has led to seasonal flooding, traffic congestion, road accidents and high maintenance costs. Zanzibar needs effective transportation infrastructure to support rapid trade connectivity, taking advantage of regional integration. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 48 Aspirations

3.2.1 High quality and reliable road facilities within and across Zanzibar, where all single-lane main roads are upgraded to dual carriageways and new roads, highways, flyovers, bridges, carparks and street lanes are constructed;

3.2.2 Efficient urban road infrastructure that emphasises the reduction of congestion, improving road safety and connectivity of community roads to feeder roads as well as enhancing pedestrian experience; and

3.2.3 Adequate infrastructure for public transportation in key areas, including establishing a rapid bus and rail network as well as upgrading daladala routes. Key Performance Indicators We aim to take land transportation further by modernising surface transport networks and facilities 49 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 SEAPORTS AND MARINE TRANSPORTATION Strategic Direction: Making Zanzibar a regional hub for maritime transportation BACKGROUND As a coastal nation, Zanzibar relies heavily on marine transportation to facilitate trade with the rest of the world. The islands’ main seaport at Malindi alone handles about 95% of Zanzibar’s trade and nearly 3 million ferry passengers per year. Given the importance of marine connectivity, the RGoZ has invested considerably in the sector by upgrading port facilities at Malindi, Wete and Mkoani as well as undertaking initiatives to establish commercial ports at Mpigaduri and Wesha and an O&G port at Mangapwani. Private sector participation has continued to increase with government support, particularly in the provision of passenger ferries connecting Unguja to Dar es Salaam and Pemba. Nevertheless, seaport and maritime services have not been leveraged fully for Zanzibar to serve as a transshipment hub in East Africa and the Indian Ocean. The port at Malindi has experienced a decline in performance amid rising trade demand due to its low carrying capacity. The port currently takes Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 50 5-6 days to offload cargo, leading to a loss of productivity and raising freight costs. As marine trade grows in importance, there is a need to maintain safety and security standards to the international level by monitoring, regulating and coordinating maritime activities. Aspirations

3.3.1 A safe and secure maritime transportation network in Zanzibar’s area of jurisdiction;

3.3.2 Efficient and effective cargo ports that are able to handle modern container ships, with sufficient provision and links to container services, inland depots, storage, dry docking and bunkering services;

3.3.3 Specialised ports with adequate facilities, including O&G service centres and dedicated fishing ports;

3.3.4 A comprehensive passenger hub at Malindi that integrates ferry and marina services, revitalising Forodhani Waterfront to leverage linkages with tourism development;

3.3.5 Reliable and efficient marine transportation facilities in Pemba, including improving cargo and passenger terminals in Mkoani and Wete, for better marine connectivity between islands;

3.3.6 Efficient small port services across the islands where all basic services are provided; and

3.3.7 A regional leader in international ship registration. Key Performance Indicators * All targets are measured relative to the base value of 100 for the highest scoring country in 2004. 51 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 AIRPORTS AND AIR TRANSPORTATION Strategic Direction: Attaining competitive rates of air and passenger traffic alongside upgrades to local airports to meet regional and international aviation standards BACKGROUND The aviation sector in Zanzibar is currently served by Abeid Amani Karume International Airport (AAKIA) and Pemba Airport, both of which primarily serve routes within Tanzania. These airports are increasingly struggling to meet rising passenger traffic demand as Zanzibar’s tourism industry continues to grow. As of 2020, a new terminal at AAKIA is due to start operations, thereby more than doubling overall annual passenger capacity to 2.6 million. In addition, feasibility studies to upgrade Pemba Airport to the status of an international gateway for passengers and cargo are under way while Kigunda airstrip has been earmarked as an alternative option. The area surrounding AAKIA has been declared an FEZ, but development has been underwhelming. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 52 Aspirations

3.4.1 Competitive airline services and airport infrastructure that meet appropriate international standards, including continuously upgrading and modernising AAKIA and Pemba Airport as well as ensuring adequate air links between Zanzibar and the rest of the world;

3.4.2 A sustainable airport infrastructure plan with zoned reserve land for air strips and helipads where appropriate; and

3.4.3 An operational Airport FEZ supported by the establishment of warehousing facilities to capture spill-overs between industry and transport. Key Performance Indicators The opening of AAKIA Terminal 3 is part of our goal to continuously upgrade our aviation and airport facilities 53 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 ENERGY Strategic Direction: Attaining greater power system independence and reliability through the diversification of energy sources, especially renewable energy BACKGROUND Predictable and reliable power supply has become a major priority for productivity as domestic energy demand rises due to high economic and population growth. Currently, Zanzibar is almost entirely dependent on mainland Tanzania for electrical energy, with submarine cables carrying power from the mainland. Though energy security is currently satisfactory with a total electricity surplus of 20MW in 2020, there are concerns that power supply may soon become unpredictable and struggle to keep up with rising energy demands. Renewable energy (RE), including solar and wind power, presents an opportunity to promote energy independence and ensure a more reliable power supply without compromising on environmental sustainability. However, RE sources account for a negligible share of total energy consumption due to slow adoption, limited technical expertise and limited financing for RE infrastructural development. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 54 RE technologies are also useful for cooking, with waste-to-energy sources such as bioethanol, biogas and briquettes serving as viable alternatives to reduce dependence on traditional cooking fuels, such as fuelwood and charcoal. Aspirations

3.5.1 Sustainable and diversified energy sources through the exploration and adoption of domestically generated energy, including potential RE and non-RE sources;

3.5.2 A reliable power system backed by improvements to the current submarine cable network;

3.5.3 High public and private sector investment in RE-centred initiatives, including engagement with RE-focused NGOs; and

3.5.4 Modern and innovative RE and non-RE technologies supported by R&D, innovation and training programmes. Key Performance Indicators Note: Share of energy generation is tabulated as follows: • 2020: undersea cables from mainland Tanzania (120 MW), indigenous RE and non-RE (0 MW) • 2030: undersea cables from mainland Tanzania (220 MW), indigenous RE (83 MW), indigenous non-RE (0 MW) • 2040: undersea cables from mainland Tanzania (270 MW), indigenous RE (135 MW), indigenous non-RE (50 MW) • 2050: undersea cables from mainland Tanzania (270 MW), indigenous RE (185 MW), indigenous non-RE (140 MW) * The difference between electricity supply and demand. It is assumed that with greater diversification of energy sources in the next 30 years, growth in electricity generation will outpace that of demand, with the possibility of exporting domestically generated energy to mainland Tanzania and other markets. 55 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS Strategic Direction: Providing effective and efficient information, telecommunications and related services for all BACKGROUND Zanzibar has made strides towards becoming a knowledge-based society, with progress in building a new-generational air and fibre optic backbone network, including government offices. Meanwhile, broadcasting has evolved through digitalisation and direct-to-home services on top of existing licensed private radio and television stations. Additionally, mobile phone technology and utilisation have both grown in recent years, with increases in the number of service providers, users and mobile service products. In 2015, Zanzibar developed its ICT Policy, which is aligned with the requirements of TCRA - the national regulatory authority. The policy uses the principles of competition as a means of promoting rapid sectoral development. Despite the development of hard ICT infrastructure, last mile connectivity to premises remains a challenge: households and businesses are not sufficiently connected to the network nor are they Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 56 optimally using digital products and services. Aspirations

3.6.1 Accessible and affordable communications services throughout Zanzibar, linking all areas to air, fibre optic and emerging ICT infrastructure;

3.6.2 Effective ICT usage in productive sector services to improve efficiency in trading and to reduce transaction costs; and

3.6.3 Reliable, accessible and affordable broadcasting services through an expansion of digital infrastructure, expanding their reach to both local and international audiences. Key Performance Indicators As part of building a knowledge-based society, we want to ensure high coverage of modern broadcasting services in line with developments in ICT 57 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Pillar IV GOVERNANCE AND RESILIENCE OBJECTIVE Ensuring the continuity of social, economic, political and environmental stability in Zanzibar through accountable, transparent, responsible and effective governance that emphasises the management of all national resources with implementable monitoring and evaluation frameworks OVERVIEW The RGoZ has consistently acknowledged the role of good governance in facilitating development in its previous national plans. The establishment of an accountable, transparent, responsive and effective system of governance that is resilient to developmental pressures cannot be emphasised enough. In this regard, Zanzibar has made headway in terms of creating legal and administrative frameworks promoting the rule of law, the protection of vulnerable groups and environmental management. However, plans have not always translated into action: reporting mechanisms are occasionally incomplete while enforcement of strong legal provisions is often a challenge. Moving forward, Zanzibar must ensure a clear, consistent and continuous link between policy and implementation. Overall, it is important to note that governance and resilience is not just a static event but a dynamic series of multifaceted and multidimensional processes, initiatives and institutions. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 58 Priority Areas Benchmarks SDGs Agenda 2063 Aspirations 1, 3, 4 59 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 LAND UTILISATION AND MANAGEMENT Strategic Direction: Utilising land equitably and sustainably through flexible and innovative land administration for inclusive growth BACKGROUND The importance of managing land resources sustainably is urgent for land-scarce Zanzibar, given a land area of just over 2,400 square kilometres. The country faces considerable land pressures amid a growing population and a rise in land-intensive economic activities, such as agriculture and tourism. However, land disputes and poor urban planning are commonplace due to an inadequate and insufficient national spatial data management system. As Zanzibar strives for inclusive development, there is a need for effective land administration and management to: (i) guide social and economic activities; (ii) control land use; (iii) allocate land ownership effectively and (iv) reduce land disputes. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 60 Aspirations

4.1.1 Effective land laws and policies that are reviewed regularly to cope with emerging socio-economic needs and environmental conditions, enforcing development control where appropriate;

4.1.2 Clear and efficient allocation and utilisation of land for different economic activities, where zoning laws are regularly updated, settlements are remapped and land is reserved to reflect changes in land use patterns and population growth;

4.1.3 Transparent, accountable and participatory land governance for sustainable land use; and

4.1.4 Effective and sustainable land recycling12 and reclamation interventions to increase land for use and reserve, reinforced by vertical urbanisation to support a growing population. Key Performance Indicators Note: Targets for proportion of land use assume more efficient use of existing land for settlements and intensive agriculture amid land recycling and reclamation efforts. 61 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE Strategic Direction: Pursuing comprehensive green and blue development through the sustainable management of ENR and climate resilience, contributing to socio-economic development goals BACKGROUND Economic development activities that are carried out without proper planning and care often have negative externalities, leading to pollution and environmental degradation. Degraded and polluted areas no longer provide a suitable home for flora and fauna, leading to biodiversity loss as well as low food and nutritional security. Ecological stability is further threatened by climate change, which could potentially affect future livelihoods, with children in particular at greater risk of food and water scarcity; vector and water-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue and cholera as well as air pollution. There is therefore a need to manage development sustainably to ensure the continuity and perpetuation of natural resources for generations to come. It is important to note that the sustainable management of the environment and natural resources (ENR) as well as improved climate resilience is not only compatible with economic development, but it will also help Zanzibar achieve key Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 62 development goals, ranging from food security, agricultural stability, health and poverty reduction. Aspirations

4.2.1 Reliable, effective and enforceable policies and management tools for sustainable ENR management and enhanced climate resilience;

4.2.2 An enabling environment for climate change management through sustainable climate financing mechanisms;

4.2.3 Enhanced national research capabilities focusing on targeted responses to climate change and other ENR issues;

4.2.4 The integration of sustainable ENR management actions and climate resilience values with development objectives for maximum contribution to long-term socio-economic development in line with the circular economy, taking children’s best interest into consideration;

4.2.5 Strengthened sustainable ENR and climate resilient conservation practices as part of efforts to increase the greening of the island;

4.2.6 An increased share of protected marine and forest conservation areas to ensure the continuity of ecosystem biodiversity; and

4.2.7 High capacity in ENR and climate resilience management and practices at all levels. Key Performance Indicators 63 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 SAFETY, SECURITY AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT Strategic Direction: Maintaining a safe and secure environment for peaceful living in Zanzibar, supported by effective, efficient and resilient disaster management mechanisms BACKGROUND There are two important dimensions of security to ensure the continuity of a country: personal and regime security, alongside disaster risk management. Zanzibar generally has a good track record in personal and regime security, with a manageable crime rate and a relatively stable state apparatus by regional standards. This has been reinforced by the recent installation of streetlights in two phases in parts of Unguja and Pemba as well as the Mji Salama Project for urban safety through the introduction of CCTVs. Overall national stability, however, also rests on the national capacity to respond adequately to natural and man-made hazards, an area in which Zanzibar has room for improvement. To ensure adequate preparedness for and rapid responsiveness to natural disasters and other hazardous events, early warning systems need to be strengthened. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 64 Aspirations

4.3.1 Stable national security maintained by highly professional and competent Special Departments alongside national security and defence forces;

4.3.2 High road and personal safety supported by the provision of street lighting and surveillance devices and other monitoring systems in criminal hotspots, including tourist areas;

4.3.3 A strong disaster management framework backed by a comprehensive information system, M&E and research with improved early warning systems, emphasising the participation of vulnerable groups in plans and strategies; and

4.3.4 High disaster management capacity with enhanced preparedness and responsiveness to overcome epidemics, fires, natural disasters and hazardous events at all levels. Key Performance Indicators We want to maintain safe and secure living for everyone 65 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 GOVERNING INSTITUTIONS AND PUBLIC SERVICES Strategic Direction: Upholding transparency, accountability and the rule of law in government and society, supported by an efficient and competent bureaucracy for public service delivery BACKGROUND The RGoZ has taken initiatives to promote good governance by developing policies, strategies and laws, alongside recent reforms in the public sector. The legal system in particular has seen the creation of new legal institutions and the review of major laws. This is in line with the government’s continuous efforts to maintain peace, security and solidarity. Despite the existence of strong legal and policy frameworks on paper, however, enforcement remains a challenge, with many programmes facing inadequate implementation and operationalisation. There are also several systemic issues that have not been adequately addressed, including the insufficient capacity of the legal system, high bureaucracy in the provision of public services as well as corruption in the public and private sectors. Ultimately, Zanzibar’s public services and legal system should uphold the principle that no Zanzibari is left behind to strengthen poverty reduction initiatives. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 66 Aspirations

4.4.1 Effective implementation and enforcement of policies and laws, reinforced by high engagement with key stakeholders through regular reviews and M&E mechanisms to improve governance and the rule of law;

4.4.2 Highly efficient, knowledgeable and competent public servants who provide strengthened public services alongside greater service digitalisation and performance management;

4.4.3 High ethical conduct and accountability of public leaders and civil servants in line with a zero-tolerance policy on corruption and its roots as well as mobilising public participation against corruption;

4.4.4 Strong civil and criminal justice framework and infrastructure with highly accessible legal services for all under an effective judiciary system, including a focus on child justice through community rehabilitation programmes for child offenders;

4.4.5 Strong democratic and oversighting organs with continued government commitment to upholding human rights and participatory democracy, reflecting relevant international conventions and the needs of the time where applicable;

4.4.6 Continued adherence and alignment to relevant international conventions, treaties and declarations that support Zanzibar’s development aspirations through effective coordination with the URT, development partners and the international community at large; and

4.4.7 High capacity and reliable LGAs that provide effective public services in their area of jurisdiction. Key Performance Indicators 67 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Making the Vision a Reality OVERVIEW Vision 2050 is the highest guiding instrument for national planning in Zanzibar. Any development project or plan that takes place over the next 30 years must be aligned with the objectives set out across the Vision’s four pillars, all of which are in turn aligned with Zanzibar’s international commitments to the SDGs and AU Agenda 2063. To ensure the effective implementation of the long-term vision, Vision 2050 will be supported by the development of medium-term strategies, dividing the long-term targets into more tangible and operationalised targets on the five-year horizon. These targets then form the building blocks for the development of annual sectoral plans, implementation programmes and projects. Figure 3 below summarises these three timeframes for development planning in Zanzibar. With the current institutional setup, the Zanzibar Planning Commission (ZPC) is the national authority responsible for coordinating the implementation of Vision 2050 and any ensuing medium-term strategies. As the custodian of the vision, ZPC is tasked with ensuring all stakeholders are aware of the vision’s priority areas as well as reviewing all cross-ministerial project documents to guarantee consistency with the vision. Evidence-based policies and strategies are necessary for functional monitoring and evaluation (M&E), which serves as an important Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 68 implementation tool. Therefore, the national mandate for M&E is also tasked to the ZPC. Annual plans, development programmes and projects meanwhile are the responsibility of the MDAs. Vision 2050 will be implemented in three 10-year phases – namely 2020-2030, 2030-2040 and 2040-2050 – that will guide growth strategies, policies as well as political parties’ guidelines. At the end of every 10-year term, ZPC, in collaboration with all key stakeholders, will conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the vision. The evaluation will include analyses of two areas: 1) The performance of and trends in Zanzibar’s macroeconomic indicators with respect to national income and poverty reduction. This will be reviewed to determine national progress towards fulfilling the vision’s main goal of attaining UMIS by 2050; 2) The progress in each pillar and priority area therein. This will be measured against the corresponding target of every performance indicator for that particular period. To strengthen the implementation mechanism, the vision will be reinforced using five-year medium-term strategies, sector policies and annual plans, beginning with ZSGRP IV for 2020-2025. These documents will clearly identify the sources of human and material capital necessary to implement Vision 2050-aligned programmes and projects; provide key timelines; outline the necessary financial modalities; and clarify the institutional arrangements, including the MDAs and/or LGAs responsible and the appropriate partnership mechanisms, such as public or private financing, joint ventures or PPP. 69 | Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 Glossary 1 Countries that have a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita between USD 3,956 and USD 12,235 as of 2018. Note that the minimum threshold may increase over time with inflation. Note further that this definition from the World Bank uses GNI rather than GDP per capita, the former of which includes nationally-owned factors of production abroad and excludes foreign- owned factors of production based domestically. However, this difference is expected to be negligible for a small economy like Zanzibar. 2 Equivalent to food poverty, which refers to individuals whose monthly (price-adjusted) total household consumption does not meet the minimum nutritional requirements of 2,200 kilocalories (kcal) per adult per day. 3 Zanzibar’s Human Development Index baseline for 2018 is an average of the scores for the five regions weighted by population: Mjini Magharibi (0.690), Kaskazini Unguja (0.560), Kusini Unguja (0.612), Kaskazini Pemba (0.543) and Kusini Pemba (0.577). Source: https://globaldatalab.org/ shdi/shdi/ 4 Covers dairy, poultry, beef, sheep, goat and honey production. 5 An approach to agricultural development that prioritises foods and crops that are nutritionally rich, focusing on dietary diversity and food fortification to address malnutrition and promote food and nutritional security. 6 Binding conditions that firms need to fulfil in order to qualify for tax incentives and other forms of state support, including binding, measurable and time-sensitive targets. 7 Environmentally conscious tourism, covering areas such as marine and maritime archaeology, island hopping, marine wildlife watching and recreational fishing. 8 In line with the SDGs, researchers are professionals who conduct research and improve or develop concepts, theories, models techniques instrumentation and/or software of operational methods. 9 Settlements characterised by adequate housing, in which individuals live in conditions that benefit or do not harm their health, safety, prosperity and opportunities. Inadequate housing may include slums or informal settlements. 10 A house that fulfils basic infrastructural demands, including electricity, improved sanitation facilities, improved water sources and access to clean fuels for cooking. 11 Specialised ports include dedicated fishing ports and O&G ports. 12 Calls for reduction in land size by converting existing settlements into other uses through verti- cal urbanisation and related strategies. Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 | 70 ZANZIBAR PLANNING COMMISSION P. O. Box 1154/874 Zanzibar Tel/Fax: +255 24 223 0546 Website: www.planningznz.go.tz