Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of Trinidad and Tobago Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

1. The economic module, which forecasts the general economic growth of Trinidad and Tobago and that of the sectors, according to some assumptions and scenarios generated.

2. The sectoral submodels, which develop the technical specificities of every sector, according to the forecasts of the economic module. 1 Trinidad and Tobago will continue to revise the BAU projections as more data becomes available to better track emission reduction efforts. 4

3. The emissions module, which converts the activity data into GHG emissions, according to the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The development of the future scenarios is based on projections of the World Bank for Trinidad and Tobago and the Caribbean2. The scenario developed shows a lower economic growth and is therefore defined as the conservative scenario, while the growth expected for the Caribbean is higher, so it was used as the baseline for the optimistic scenario. The scenarios have an important influence on the GHG emissions. Firstly, it is due to the relationship between the demand growth and the GHG emissions. And secondly, because in a long term projection, structural transformations of the economy take place, reflecting the differences between the relative weights of the economic sectors, and affecting the GHG emissions. Type of Emissions Reductions: Emission reduction from projected emissions based a business as usual scenario to the year 2030. Sectors: Transportation, power generation and industry. Gases: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide Fairness and Ambition: Trinidad and Tobago is a small island developing state with the attendant limitations of small size, limited technological, technical, financial and human resources, relatively small economy, accounting for less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions and more critically, acutely vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. Notwithstanding, the Government of Trinidad and Tobago has placed equal importance on mitigation and adaptation because it recognises the need for developing a low carbon economy in order to assist in the achievement of sustainable development objectives. To this end, Trinidad and Tobago has begun to put in place the necessary policy and legislative framework and has committed to unconditional mitigation action consistent with the implementation of the National Climate Change Policy. 2 “Real Projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Growth Rates of GDP for Baseline Countries/Regions (in billions of 2005 dollars) 2000-2030”. World Bank World Development Indicators, International Financial Statistics of the IMF, IHS Global Insight, and Oxford Economic Forecasting, as well as estimated and projected values developed by the Economic Research Service all converted to a 2005 base year. 5 Additionally, robust policy measures for forest, land use and natural resources management are underway that will result in greater mitigation of greenhouse gases but which are not included as part of the iNDC. Trinidad and Tobago’s iNDC therefore goes beyond the requirements of the provisions made for SIDS in Paragraph 11 of Decision 1/CP.20. Furthermore, the Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago is developing a feasible carbon trading scheme that will also result in reduced emissions in the industrial sector. Contribution to The Government of Trinidad and Tobago recognises the legally achieving the objective binding commitment of all Parties to achieving the objective of of the UNFCCC: the UNFCCC as articulated in its Article 2 and the need for mitigation action by all Parties regardless of their quantum of emissions. The mitigation efforts of Trinidad and Tobago along with those of all Parties will collectively contribute to the reduction of global atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and the achievement of the objective of the UNFCCC. Explanatory Notes BAU Scenario: The estimated emissions to 2030 are based on the Business-As-Usual (BAU) projections modeled, and calculated as the average of the emissions projected of both the optimistic scenario and the conservative scenarios.

1. Emissions Reduction by 2030: The emissions reduction objective is intended to be a reduction of the cumulative emissions of the three sectors (power generation, industry and transport) between 2013 and 2030, and aimed to be achieved by 31 December 2030. These cumulative emissions are referenced against a 2013 baseline in which the total emissions from these sectors amounted to an estimated 34,234,032 tCO2-e.

2. Sectors: The sectors covered are the three major emitting sectors (power generation, industry and transportation) as the emissions from the other sectors are considered relatively negligible. For example, in 2010, the land use and agriculture sector accounted for 2% of total economy- wide emissions, while the waste sector accounted for 7% of the total economy-wide emissions.

3. Global Warming Potential (GWP): GWP used were consistent with the 1996 IPCC Guidelines and applied in estimating projected emissions. 6