Living with Change (LivC): An Integrated National Strategy for Enhancing the Resilience of Tokelau to Climate Change and Related Hazards, 2017-2030

3. Human Development: Capacity and her development partners to enhance Building, Education, Training, Public her resilience, and readiness to climate Awareness & Outreach change and related hazards, in the context of national sustainable development. This pathway involves (i) Improving the capacity of the three villages to prepare for

1. Mitigation: Decarbonisation emergencies and disasters. This will ensure Development the timely and effective response and This pathway revolves around clean energy, recovery in relation to both rapid and slow low carbon, “no regrets” development onset disasters, which may be exacerbated policies, focusing on (i) reducing the carbon or caused by climate change; (ii) Enhancing intensity of development processes, (ii) disaster preparedness, response, and increasing the efficiency of end-use energy recovery initiatives, will reduce undue human consumption, (iii) enhancing the resilience of losses and suffering, and; (iii) Minimising energy and related infrastructure, and, (iv) adverse consequences for national, village, increasing the protection and conservation of and local communities’ livelihoods, and terrestrial and ocean ecosystems that are environmental ecosystems will have both vital to the Tokelauan people and could beneficial effects across society. help capture carbon dioxide. The LivC and its companion LivC This pathway will contribute to emphasising Implementation Plan, 2017-2022, set out clean energy, low carbon economic priority areas that shall be undertaken at both development policies, more resilient and a the village and national level. The priority more climate-proof infrastructure. Putting areas are supported by a set of institutional these actions in place will not only increase partnerships that bring together villages, energy security but will work to decrease the national, and international agencies to net emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). implement the LivC. 1 WHY A CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY IS NECESSARY It is widely accepted that climate change and 1. Aims What is Tokelau’s vision of the related hazards pose an existential threat to future? What goals and objectives Tokelau. This reality makes it critical for should drive her climate change and Tokelau to have a national climate change related hazards’ strategy? strategy in place. 2. A c t i v i t i e s W h a t i s To k e l a u ’ s The most significant climate change related mission? What types of services will hazards affecting Tokelau are tropical allow Tokelau to achieve her aims? cyclones, severe weather systems (non- 3. Partnerships Who does what? Who tropical cyclone storms resulting in heavy are Tokelau’s partners and what do rains and flooding), drought, flooding they bring to the table? associated with storm surges and king tides, 4. Approaches How do they do it? In sea level rise, water spouts, disease what ways does Tokelau conduct epidemics, bush fires, landslides and activities with other agents of both tsunamis, as summarised in Annex 1. While government and non-governmental earthquakes are not related to climate organisations? change, they do cause tsunamis and can impact critical infrastructure. As such, the 5. Evaluations How is success judged? threat of tsunami run-up onto low-lying atolls What evidence informs pragmatic can be exacerbated by climate-change decisions? induced sea-level rise. Although Tokelau is in an area of relatively LivC is a product of years of planning and low tropical cyclone activity due primarily to discussions, desktop reviews of government its position far north in the southwest Pacific reports and documents, and extensive basin, the risk is elevated during El Niño consultations using a whole-of-community seasons (Diamond, 2016). Diamond (2016) approach. LivC has two parts: found five tropical cyclones possibly impacting Tokelau by coming within 278km • The LivC Strategy, 2017-2030 (this from 1970-2015. document) LivC was prepared using a simple model, • The LivC Implementation Plan, based on answers to the following questions; 2017-2022 (companion document). THE FUTURE WE WANT Our Vision Our Mission Tokelau is a vibrant, innovative, climate- To provide Tokelauans with climate change resilient, and ready nation, with healthy and related hazards’ intelligence services communities, ecosystems, and an economy (CCS) to enhance their safety, resilience, that are all resilient in the face of change. freedom, sustainability, healthy ecosystems and well-being, and economic prosperity in the face of change. 2 FUTURE PATHWAYS LivC identifies three inter-related strategic Adaptation: Strengthened integrated Climate-Resilient Investment Pathways risk reduction and adaptation to (CRIP) that need to be pursued by Tokelau enhance climate change and disaster and her development partners to ensure that resilience. Tokelau is a vibrant, innovative, climate- Pursuing this pathway entails resilient, and ready nation with healthy successfully managing risks caused by ecosystems, communities, and an economy climate change and disasters in an that are all resilient in the face of change. integrated manner, within social and economic development planning processes and practices to reduce the accumulation of such risks, and prevent the creation of new risks and loss and damage. This pathway will contribute to strengthening resilient developments and achieving e ff i c i e n c i e s i n n a t u r a l a n d h u m a n resource management. Objective: Successfully manage climate change and disaster risks in an Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Array. Fakaofo, August

2016. Photo courtesy: C. L. Anderson integrated manner, reduce existing risks, and prevent the creation of new Mitigation: Decarbonisation and additional risks. development Human Development: Capacity Pursuing this pathway revolves around Building, Education, Training, Public low carbon, no regrets development Awareness, and Outreach policies, focusing on reducing the Pursuing this pathway includes carbon intensity of development improving the capacity of the three processes, increasing the efficiency of villages to prepare for emergencies end-use energy consumption, and disasters, thereby ensuring timely enhancing the resilience of energy and and effective response and recovery in related infrastructure, and increasing relation to both rapid and slow onset the protection and conservation of disasters, which may be exacerbated terrestrial and marine ecosystems. This or caused by climate change. Disaster pathway will contribute to developing preparedness, response and recovery low carbon economic development initiatives will reduce undue human policies, more resilient and climate losses and suffering, and minimise proofing energy and related adverse consequences for national, infrastructure in place, increased village, and local communities, for energy security, and decreased net economic, social, environmental, emissions of greenhouse gases infrastructure, and ecological systems. (GHGs). Objective: Enhance institutional, Objective: Reduce carbon intensity of governance and public awareness of climate development processes, increase change and related hazards, disaster efficiency of end-use energy preparedness, response, and recovery. consumption, increase resilience of energy and related infrastructure on all The LivC Implementation Plan, 2017-2022, three villages, and enhance policies describes the key outcomes and and measures to protect and conserve development priority focused areas for each To k e l a u ’ s t e r r e s t r i a l a n d m a r i n e CRIP. ecosystems. 3 TURNING STRATEGY INTO ACTION Institutional Arrangements technical agencies to provide The successful implementation of LivC financial, policy relevant advice, will depend on suitable governance and technical support, and structures and adequate institutional (iv) Promoting human development a n d h u m a n c a p a c i t y, ( i . e . w e l l - (capacity building, education, resourced and fully functioning training and public awareness institutional arrangements). The and outreach of climate change fundamental principle for the and related hazards’ implementation of the LivC is that the programmes). ownership, planning, and its implementation lies with the respective Partnerships, Approaches, and Taupulega of each village. Resourcing Under this arrangement, it is The most critical success factor for the envisioned the implementation of LivC achievement of the LivC goals is to will be based on a combination of foster partnerships between the scientific, evidence-based information, TCR2O and other departments of the complemented by indigenous G o v e r n m e n t o f To k e l a u , v i l l a g e k n o w l e d g e , a n d To k e l a u - s p e c i f i c c o u n c i l s , c i v i l s o c i e t y, t h e p r i v a t e experience under the guidance of the s e c t o r, r e g i o n a l a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l Taupulega of each village, as well as organisations, and developmental best practices and lessons learned partners. from other low lying atolls in the LivC is designed with the Pacific. In identifying priorities and understanding that the Government of implementation strategies, the Tokelau and developmental partners Taupulega will be supported by the will help support the financing and principal administration institutions of implementation as outlined in the LivC governance in Tokelau (the General Implementation Plan, 2017-2022. The Fono and the Council of the On-Going p r e s e n t To k e l a u c l i m a t e c h a n g e Government of Tokelau). This support programme unit, managed by only one would include: full-time staff member and supported (i) Seeking new partnerships and by one external advisor on a fixed term further engaging traditional contract, is currently under the Office development partners; of the Council of the Ongoing Government of Tokelau (OCOG). The (ii) Providing a central point, resolution by the General Fono to t h r o u g h a To k e l a u C l i m a t e place climate change as a national Change, Resilient, Readiness & development priority under the Tokelau Emergency Services’ Office National Development Framework, (TCR2O) to ensure enhanced 2016-2020, provides an opportunity for coordination, information an immediate independent review of management and dissemination, the functions and roles of the present and integration of government’s Tokelau climate change programme climate change, disaster risks, unit, and how the unit shall be response and recovery strengthened now and into the future. frameworks and development plans; (iii) Organising and coordinating support from Pacific regional CROP agencies, UN agencies, development partners and key 4 MEASURING PROGRESS The progress of LivC will be coordinated, of LivC will be evaluated against strategic monitored, reviewed, and evaluated through outcomes and development priority areas, the Taupulega, the General Fono, and the every six months. OCOG. The TCR2O shall conduct a mid-tern review As described in the Companion LivC of the LivC every four years commencing on Implementation Plan, 2017-2022, progress 30 June 2021. towards achieving the goals and objectives REFERENCES Diamond, H. (2016): Tokelau Tropical Cyclone Transformation, Wuppertal Institute, the German Climatology, A Report, September 2016. Development Institute (Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, (DIE)), German Watch, Government of Tokelau, (2016): Draft Tokelau Germany (in press). National Development Framework, 2016-2020. Nurse, L.A., R.F. McLean, J. Agard, L.P. Government of Tokelau, (2016): Draft Nukunonu Briguglio, V. Duvat-Magnan, N. Pelesikoti, E. Development Plan, 2016-2020. Tompkins, and A.Webb, 2014: Small islands. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Government of Tokelau, (2012): Draft Tokelau Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Climate Change Strategy, 2012 to 2017. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Government of Tokelau, (2013): Tokelau Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Renewable Energy Project Review 2013. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Government of Tokelau, (2016): The Changing Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Climate in Tokelau, Issue 1, Monday, June 20, Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel,

2016. A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Government of Tokelau, (2015): Tokelau Interim Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New Strategic Plan, 2015-2016. York, NY, USA, pp. 1613-1654. IPCC., (2013): Summary for Policymakers. In: MCDEM (2016): Disaster & Climate Risk Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Management Plan, Nukunonu, 2016. Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the MCDEM (2016): Disaster & Climate Risk Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Management Plan, Atafu, 2016. [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, M C D E M , ( 2 0 1 6 ) : P a c i fi c D i s a s t e r R i s k S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex Management and Resilience (Pac DRMR) and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Programme, Implementation Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA NIWA (2013): Tsunami hazard potential for the atolls of Tokelau, Prepared for the Villages Lafley, A.G., & Martin, R.L. (2013) Playing to win: How strategy really works. Boston, Mass: Emergency Committee of Tokelau, June 2013. Harvard Business Review MCDEM (2016): NOAA (2012): NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Disaster & Climate Risk Management Plan, Research Laboratory, Innovative Research for Atafu, 2016. the Freshwater Seas, Strategic Plan, 2012. US Department of Commerce, United States Lefale, F., (2016): AOSIS: Where to from Paris? Government. Climate Clubs and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), In: Climate Appliances apres Ott, H., S. Bauer, C. Brandi, F. Mersmann and L. Paris – The Potential of Pioneers Climate Weischer (2016): Climate Alliances après Paris, Alliances to contribute to Stronger Mitigation and The Potential of Pioneer Climate Alliances to 5 Contribute to Stronger Mitigation and UNEP (2001), A simplified guide to the IPCC’s Transformation, Paper for the Pioneers Alliance “Climate Change 2001: Mitigation”, GE. Actions Project, the German Development 0201807/E - September 2002 – 2000. Institute (Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, DIE), Bonn, Germany. UNFCCC Secretariat (1992): The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Ramsay, D. (2006): Reducing the risks of (UNFCCC) cyclone storm surge inundation on the atolls of Tokelau 2006 – An overview of cyclone related UNFCCC Secretariat (2015): The Paris coastal hazards. NIWA Client Report: Agreement to the UNFCCC. HAM2005-119, July 2005. NIWA Project: United Nations (2015): The Sendai Framework UNS05201. for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030. SPC and SPREP (2016): Strategy for Resilience United Nations (2014): The Small Island Development in the Pacific: An Integrated Developing States Accelerated Modalities of Approach to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Action (SAMOA) SAMOA Pathway. Management (SRDP), 2017-2030. United Nations (2015): Transforming Our World: SPREP (2012): Pacific Islands Meteorological the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Strategy, 2012-2021, Apia, Samoa. 2015-2030.

ANNEX 1. Tokelau Climate Change Profile. Societal Impact by Atoll HAZARD Atafu Nukunonu Fakaofo Tropical Cyclone Extreme Extreme Extreme Severe weather non-tropical Extreme Extreme Extreme cyclone systems Drought Extreme Extreme Extreme Flood - Storm Surges and King Extreme High High Tides Flood Runoff - Heavy Rain High Extreme Extreme Water Spout High High High Disease Epidemics Medium High High Bush Fire Low Medium Low Landslide Low Medium Low Tsunami and Coastal Inundation Low Low Low from Run-Up Sources: LivC Situational Analysis Mission (2016); NZ MCDEM (2016), DCRMP, Atafu, Nukunonu; Samoa Red Cross Society (2005); Fakaofo by extrapolation. 6

ANNEX 2: GLOSSARY Aumaga The able bodied (men). The aumaga towards achieving sustainable development; (2) are responsible for looking after the village and Actions to assure that effective institutions, do most of the required labour- intensive work in strategies, and choices for risk management will Tokelau society. be identified, implemented, and sustained as an integrated part of achieving sustainable Climate Adaptation In human systems, the development. process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects to moderate harm or Climate Resilience The capacity for a social- exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural ecological system to (1) absorb stresses and systems, the process of adjustment to actual maintain function in the face of external stresses climate and its effects, human intervention may imposed upon it by climate change, and (2) facilitate adjustment to expected climate. adapt, reorganise, and evolve into more desirable configurations that improve the Climate change in Intergovernmental Panel on sustainability of the system, leaving it better Climate Change (IPCC) usage refers to a change prepared for future climate change impacts. in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Climate-Resilient Investment Pathways Solar Photovoltaic energy on each atoll contributes Climate-resilient investment pathways include to Tokelau’s decarbonisation scheme, Fakaofo, strategies, choices and actions that reduce August 2016. Photo courtesy: C.L. Anderson. climate change and its impacts. Climate-resilient investment pathways include two main categories of responses: (1) Actions to reduce Decarbonisation The reduction or removal or both human induced climate change as well as carbon dioxide from fossil fuel energy sources. A affects from natural climate variability, and its decarbonised (low-carbon) economy is an impacts, including both mitigation and adaptation economy that has a minimal output of greenhouse gas emissions in general into the environment biosphere, but specifically refers to the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. Disaster The severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery. Faipule A Government of Tokelau representative Telecommunications Infrastructure are critical on each of the three atolls. The faipule are lifelines for Tokelau Nukunonu, August 2016. Photo elected every 3 years during general elections. courtesy: C.L. Anderson. They are members of the Office of the 7 G o v e r n m e n t o f To k e l a u w i t h p o r t f o l i o s No regrets policies Options or actions to reduce (Ministers); the Ulu of Tokelau is a Faipule and is greenhouse gas emissions that have negative also the Head of Government. net costs. Net costs are negative because these options generate direct or indirect benefits, such Fatupaepae Women’s committees which are as those resulting from reductions in market comprised of those women who are finished with failures, double dividends through revenue school. The wife of the faipule is the President recycling and ancillary benefits that are large assisted by the Pulenuku’s wife. However, the enough to offset the costs of implementing the elders of the Fatupaepae are accorded the options. highest respect. Pulenuku The village mayor, who is also a matai in the village, and is elected every 3-years during the General elections. The Pulenuku traditional role is to take the lead in managing the village affairs from the decisions and policies made by the Taupulega (the Village Council). Resilience The ability of people, households, communities, countries and systems to mitigate, adapt to and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth. As this definition suggests, the concept (and measurement) of Fatupaepae engage in LivC strategic planning. resilience is complex and multidimensional. Fakaofo, August 2016. Photo courtesy: Fatu Tauafiafi. Strategy A guide for achieving the sort of future that people want. It can help people, organisations, or a whole system work together General Fono The General Assembly, the more effectively on the most important and legislative body that makes national decisions for prioritised items. Without a strategy, small Tokelau after consultation with the village problems today can become big problems over Taupulega (Village Councils). It is also the time. Legislative National Committee and the National Budget Committee. The numbers of delegates on Taupulega The Village Council. Each atoll has the General Fono are representative of the its own council. Fakaofo village comprises of population from each of the three villages. council of elders. Atafu and Nukunonu on the other hand comprise the village council of Hazard The potential occurrence of a natural or Matais. human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. Impacts The effects on natural and human systems. In this document, the term ‘impacts’ is used to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physical events, of disasters, and of climate change. Mitigation (of climate change) A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Note “mitigation” (in the context of disaster risk Youth participate in Keyhole Garden Project for reduction) is defined as the “lessening of the adaptation. Atafu, August 2016. Photo courtesy: P.F. potential adverse impacts of physical hazards Lefale. (including those that are human-induced) through actions that reduce hazard, exposure, and Tupulaga Youth, including sports teams. vulnerability.” In LivC, we restrict the use of “mitigation” to the climate change definition. Vulnerability The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected by climate-related risks. 8 Above: The MV Mataliki ship brings passengers and supplies from Apia, Samoa to Tokelau. Nukunonu, August 2016. Photo courtesy: C.L. Anderson. Left: Sunset in Atafu. August 2016. Photo courtesy: P. F. Lefale. 9