Slovenian industrial strategy 2021-2030

6.5. Internacionalizacija 57 7. USMERITVE ZA POVEZAN ZELENI, USTVARJALNI IN PAMETNI RAZVOJ 58 8. PREGLED PRISPEVKA POSAMEZNIH SKLOPOV UKREPOV K POSAMEZNEMU ZASTAVLJENEMU CILJU 65 9. ZAKLJUČEK 69 SEZNAM UPORABLJENIH KRATIC 70 PRILOGE 72 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 109 4 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Uvodnik Foto: Nebojša Tejić Spoštovani, pred vami je nova Slovenska industrijska strategija 2021-2030, ki nas v skladu z evropsko industrijsko strategijo pripravlja na prihodnost. Razmere, povezane s pandemijo korona vi- rusa, s katerimi smo bili in smo soočeni še danes, so ustvarile priložnost za razmislek: KJE smo, KAJ počnemo, ter predvsem: KJE hočemo biti in KAM želimo priti. Naše in svetovno gospodarstvo se spreminja pred našimi očmi, hitreje kot kdaj koli prej. Globalizacija, tehnološki napredek in inovacije poganjajo to kolesje razvoja. Stari igralci na trgu izginjajo, pojavljajo se novi. Spreminjajo se trgovinski tokovi. Industrija se mora neneh- no prilagajati, se preoblikovati, da ostane konkurenčna. Dejstvo je, da je treba uporabiti vse mehanizme za ohranitev tehnoloških kompetenc, ki jih imamo, ter za uspešno obvladovanje in oblikovanje novih globalnih izzivov in razvoja. Predstavljena strategija temelji na skupni viziji razvoja Evropske unije, ki je bila začrtana z Evropskim zelenim dogovorom in ki usmerja države v korenito preobrazbo gospodarstva in družbe za dosego podnebne nevtralnosti do leta 2050. Gre za novo dolgoročno strategijo Evropske unije za rast, ki poudarja sodobno, konkurenčno in z viri gospodarno gospodar- stvo. Rast in konkurenčnost sta še vedno v ospredju, vendar s pomembnim poudarkom: go- spodarsko rast je treba ločiti od rabe virov in preiti na sistem krožnega gospodarstva. Nadalje, strategija poudarja pomen ustvarjalnosti in inovacij, kar je ključnega pomena za pri- hodnji razvoj gospodarstva. Namen je skrb za ustvarjalno, podjetno in inovativno podporno okolje, za krepitev inovacijskega potenciala in dvig konkurenčnosti. Pozornost je namenjena tudi zagonu, rasti, razvoju in ohranjanju perspektivnih malih in srednje velikih podjetij. Prav tako pa strategija veliko pozornosti posveča digitalni transformaciji gospodarstva z ra- zvojem ter uvajanjem novih pametnih tehnologij. V tem oziru je ključno spodbujanje razvoj- no-raziskovalnega in inovacijskega ciklusa, mreženje in povezovanje, razvoj kompetenc in internacionalizacija poslovanja. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 5 Če povzamemo, vizija tega dokumenta je tlakovati pot zelenemu, ustvarjalnemu in pamet- nemu razvoju. Na osnovi teh smernic razvoja bomo oblikovali ukrepe za podporo slovenski industriji pri njenem nadaljnjem napredku, revitalizaciji oziroma preobrazbi. Z izvajanjem industrijske strategije želimo premikati meje razvoja, ter ohraniti ali pridobiti primat z vidika inovativnosti in konkurenčnosti v primerjavi z ostalimi deli sveta. Prav tako želimo v skladu z industrijsko politiko EU postati bolj samooskrbni, povečati strateško avtonomijo in krepiti verige vrednosti. Zadali smo si cilj, da do leta 2030 dosežemo produktivnost dela, merjena z dodano vrednostjo na zaposlenega, v višini 66.000 EUR. V Evropski uniji je že dolga leta uveljavljeno načelo „Pomisli najprej na male“ (ang. „Think small first“), kar pomeni, da je treba pri sprejemu zakonodaje najprej pomisliti na mikro podjetja, ki nimajo veliko virov, da bi se lahko prilagajala spremembam. S to industrijsko strategijo pa želimo dodati načelo „Pomisli najprej zeleno, ustvarjalno in pametno“ (ang. „Think Green, Creative and Smart first“), kar pomeni, da želimo, da se pri vsakem ukrepu, vsakem razvoju novega izdelka, storitve ali poslovnega modela, pri zagonu novega podjetja, pri novih investicijah, najprej pomisli, kako in na kakšen način bi lahko prispevali k zelene- mu, ustvarjalnemu in pametnemu razvoju. Na ta način bomo krepili položaj in mednarodno konkurenčnost industrije ter zagotovili, da ostane vitalni del slovenskega gospodarstva. Torej gremo zeleno, ustvarjalo in pametno naprej! Ljubljana, december 2021 Zdravko Počivalšek, minister za gospodarski razvoj in tehnologijo 6 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 1. UVOD Industrija s svojo izvozno usmerjenostjo in inovativnostjo predstavlja temelje blaginje in razvoja Slovenije ter je vitalni del njenega gospodarstva, zato ji je treba nameniti ustrezno pozornost. V ožjem smislu se industrija nanaša na proizvodno-predelovalne dejavnosti, ki v Sloveniji zaposlujejo preko 201.722 oseb v 19.671 podjetjih. Slovenska predelovalna dejav- nost je v letu 2019 skupno prispevala 23,2 % k dodani vrednosti gospodarstva, kar jo uvršča na tretje mesto v EU-27, za Irsko in Češko. Povprečje EU-27 je 16,7 %. Slovenska podjetja v predelovalni dejavnosti ustvarijo skoraj tretjino celotne prodaje in dve tretjini celotnega iz- voza. Predelovalne dejavnosti so zaslužne za okoli 75 % vlaganj v raziskave in razvoj (RRD) v poslovnem sektorju. Poleg tega je na industrijo vezana več kot četrtina storitvenih dejavnosti. Meje med proizvodnjo in storitvami so postale zamegljene in interakcije med storitvami in proizvodnjo se v vseh panogah povečujejo. Zato pričujoča industrijska strategija zajema širši pogled na industrijo in vključuje tudi z njo povezane storitve. Industrijska strategija povezuje različne industrijske verige, velika podjetja, mikro, mala in srednje velika podjetja, vključno z zagonskimi podjetji (v nadaljevanju MSP), akademske in raziskovalne inštitute ter druge deležnike. V povprečni industrijski enoti dela nekaj več kot deset zaposlenih. Na drugi strani pa imamo nekaj velikih podjetij, ki zaposlujejo tudi preko tisoč delavcev. Sobivanje malih in velikih podjetij je v gospodarstvu predpogoj za uspeh. Prav tako pa je pomembno njihovo povezovanje z raziskovalno sfero in kreativno-kultur- nim sektorjem (KKS). Glavno gonilo razvoja so namreč ustvarjalnost ter raziskave, razvoj in inovacije. Ena izmed ključnih nalog strategije je, da ustvari pogoje za povezovanje različnih akterjev in za učenje ter izpeljavo novih inovativnih projektov, ki premikajo meje razvoja. Nove tehnologije, dolžina življenjskega cikla izdelkov, nujnost izkoriščenja domačih surovin ter surovin iz odpadkov in naraščajoča globalna konkurenca povečujejo pomen inovacij ne le za prihodnji razvoj podjetij, temveč tudi za njihovo preživetje na dolgi rok. Zaradi preple- tanja in soodvisnosti naštetih izzivov je treba iskati sistemske rešitve v smeri primerjalnih prednosti, ki jih ima Slovenija. Industrija v Sloveniji se je skozi čas nenehno spreminjala: od delovno intenzivne v tehnolo- ško intenzivno, od predelave surovin v izdelavo vse zahtevnejših visokotehnoloških izdel- kov, od manj zahtevnih trgov do najbolj zahtevnih, od velikih emisijsko intenzivnih tovarn v sodobne nizkoogljične pametne tovarne prihodnosti, kar nam omogoča tehnološki napre- dek, vključno z digitalizacijo. Ta preobrazba še zdaleč ni končana. Industrija v Evropi doživlja preporod v smeri zelene in digitalne preobrazbe ter si prizadeva za povrnitev tehnološke suverenosti in avtonomije. Tudi v Sloveniji moramo poskrbeti za nov razvojni preboj, ki bo industriji ohranjal položaj vitalnega dela gospodarstva. Ta preboj bo, kot sledi v strategiji, temeljil na zelenem, ustvar- jalnem in pametnem razvoju. Trendi, kot so digitalizacija in prehod v nizkoogljično krožno SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 7 gospodarstvo, namreč temeljito spreminjajo okolje in način delovanja gospodarstva. S seboj prinašajo ogromno priložnosti, a hkrati tudi izzivov, s katerimi se je potrebno soočiti. Ritem razvoja, ki ga narekujejo nove tehnologije in družbeni izzivi, kot so globalizacija, boj proti podnebnim spremembam, potreba po učinkovitejši rabi surovin, demografske spremembe in zdravstveni izzivi, je čedalje hitrejši. Glede na pričakovani trend naraščanja cen surovin in energentov je treba spodbujati razvoj tistih področij gospodarstva, ki bodo dolgoročno zahtevali čim manj surovin, ne glede na to ali so iz obnovljivih ali neobnovljivih virov, za ustvarjanje (nove) dodane vrednosti. Hkrati s tem pa je seveda treba vzpostaviti pogoje, da bodo obstoječi gospodarski sistemi lahko naslavljali zahtevane spremembe za dosego zelene- ga in digitalnega prehoda. Industrija mora slediti, soustvarjati trende in se stalno posodabljati, da ostane konkurenčna in dviguje produktivnost. To velja tudi za tradicionalne industrije, ki se digitalizirajo, posta- jajo »pametne« in stremijo k znižanju okoljskega odtisa. Če želimo doseči podnebno nevtral- nost do leta 2050 in preiti v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo, so nujne tudi spremembe potrošniških navad, česar brez proaktivne vloge industrije, kakor tudi politike države, ne bo možno doseči. Posledično bo to prispevalo k dvigu družbene odgovornosti in mednarodne- mu ugledu slovenskih podjetij. Slovenska industrijska strategija bo prispevala k doseganju svetovnih ciljev trajnostnega razvoja, kot so opredeljeni z Agendo 2030. Cilj je oblikovati trajnostno industrijsko strategijo, ki bo skladna s Slovensko strategijo pame- tne specializacije (S4), Evropskim zelenim dogovorom in drugimi razvojnimi usmeritvami, ter bo spodbujala inovativne rešitve, vpeljavo najsodobnejših tehnologij, digitalno preobraz- bo gospodarstva ter prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo. Čas je za novo industrijsko strategijo, ki bo upoštevala tudi primerjalne prednosti Slovenije in spremenjene okoliščine v svetu, ki so posledica vedno težjega obvladovanja podnebnih sprememb in pandemij, vključ- no s potrebo po krepitvi tehnološke suverenosti in avtonomije. Ukrepi morajo omogočiti industriji lažje obvladovanje in prilagajanje spremembam ter tehnološki napredek, kar je ključni dejavnik uspeha v 21. stoletju. Pomemben je proaktiven in usklajen pristop tako države kot podjetij, javnih raziskovalnih in izobraževalnih institucij ter drugih deležnikov. S skrbno zasnovo novih proizvodov, ki upošteva krožne in digitalne vidike, z novimi trajnostnimi tehnologijami, uporabo domačih obnovljivih surovin, novimi delovnimi mesti in prekvalifikacijo je potrebno predvideti spre- membe, se jim prilagoditi in jih obvladati. Izziv je, kako vzpostaviti sistem, skozi katerega se bomo lahko nenehno učili in prilagajali spremembam. Pri tem so bistvenega pomena inova- cije, naložbe in krepitev že pridobljenih znanj in kompetenc ter razvoj novih. Industrijska strategija EU, ki jo je Evropska komisija predstavila v letu 2020 in posodobila v letu 2021, v ospredje postavlja krepitev enotnega trga, kar je osnova za konkurenčnost EU na globalnem trgu. Prav tako je cilj posodobljene industrijske strategije okrepiti vodilno vlogo Evrope kot svetovne industrijske sile za zagotovitev konkurenčne prednosti na področju di- gitalnih in zelenih tehnologij. Dolgoročna strateška usmeritev EU je v skladu z Evropskim zelenim dogovorom doseganje podnebne nevtralnosti do leta 2050 z zahtevo po zanesljivi os- krbi s surovinami ter čisti in cenovno dostopni energiji. Poudarjene so digitalne tehnologije, ki spreminjajo podobo industrije in način poslovanja ter omogočajo prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo. Digitalizacija je gonilo krožnega gospodarstva. Digitalne tehnologije omogočajo nove poslovne modele, industriji omogočajo, da je produktivnejša, delavcem za- 8 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 gotavljajo nove spretnosti in podpirajo razogljičenje našega gospodarstva. Digitalni sektor bo prispeval tudi k uresničevanju Evropskega zelenega dogovora, in sicer kot vir čistih tehnolo- ških rešitev ter s tem, da bo zmanjšal svoj ogljični odtis. Digitalna preobrazba gospodarstva je horizontalna glede na vse ostale dejavnosti in vsa tri razvojna področja te strategije, saj omogoča, da se lahko zaveze glede nizkoogljičnega krožnega gospodarstva, ustvarjalne, ino- vativne in razvojno naravnane pametne industrije sploh uresničijo. Slovenija z namenom ustvarjanja ter krepitve enotnega trga EU kot tudi zagotavljanja konku- renčnosti slovenskih podjetij v evropskem in globalnem prostoru pri ustvarjanju nacionalne industrijske strategije upošteva usmeritve industrijske strategije EU in ostalih relevantnih dokumentov. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 9 2. NAMEN, VIZIJA, KAZALNIKI IN OKVIR UKREPANJA V letu 2013 je Vlada Republike Slovenije sprejela dokument »Slovenska industrijska politika - SIP«, ki je postavil prioritete razvoja industrije in gospodarstva za obdobje 2014-2020. Vse- boval je usmeritve za povečanje konkurenčnosti poslovnega okolja, za krepitev podjetništva in inovacijske sposobnosti gospodarstva, za učinkovit odgovor na družbene izzive ter aktiv- nosti za trajnostni razvoj slovenske industrije. V minulem obdobju je bila vizija industrijske politike, da se preko izboljšanja poslovnega okolja, podpore podjetništvu in inovacijam ter preko razvoja perspektivnih tehnoloških in industrijskih področij, ki odgovarjajo na druž- bene izzive, ustvari pogoje za kontinuirano prestrukturiranje obstoječe industrije v energet- sko, materialno, okoljsko in družbeno učinkovito industrijo znanja in inovativnosti za nova, trajnejša in kvalitetnejša delovna mesta ter večjo vpetost v mednarodne tokove poslovanja. Ocenjujemo, da je bilo uresničevanje Slovenske industrijske politike le deloma uspešno, saj je bilo v veliki meri vezano na sredstva finančne perspektive EU 2014-2020 in pogojeno z dob- rim sodelovanjem vseh resorjev glede na pristojnost. Ugotavljamo, da je manjkal sistemati- čen pristop in povezovanje ukrepov, ki izhajajo iz podanih usmeritev. Prav tako ugotavljamo, da je treba strategijo nadgraditi z novimi spoznanji in usmeritvami ter pospešiti njeno izva- janje v praksi. Pri tem bo poseben poudarek dan povezovanju med gospodarstvom, instituci- jami znanja in vsemi ministrstvi v sklopu inovacijske dejavnosti in povezavi z Raziskovalno in inovacijsko strategijo, ter izpostavljena močna navezava na prioritetna področja Slovenske strategije pametne specializacije (S4). Hkrati bo potrebno zagotoviti dodatno koordinacijo priprave ukrepov med ministrstvi, da se ti dopolnjujejo in nadgrajujejo. Samo takšno pove- zovanje bo lahko ob implementaciji industrijske strategije uspešno identificiralo priložnosti za slovensko vključevanje v globalne verige vrednosti ob hkratni krepitvi strateške avtono- mije slovenskega in EU gospodarstva. V evalvaciji delovanja strateških razvojno-inovacij- skih partnerstev (SRIP-ov)1 se ocenjuje, da je potrebno tudi njihovo bistveno intenzivnejše vključevanje v oblikovanje industrijske in raziskovalne politike. S tega vidika je pomembna nadaljnja krepitev podpornega okolja, kar je izpostavljeno v okviru poglavja »Ustvarjalni razvoj«. Pričujoča Slovenska industrijska strategija za obdobje do leta 2030 pomeni nadgradnjo v skladu z aktualnimi evropskimi in domačimi strateškimi dokumenti ter usmeritvami pod skupnim imenovalcem »zeleni, ustvarjalni in pametni razvoj«. Pri tem ostaja ključni cilj krepitev konkurenčnosti, produktivnosti in inovativnosti gospodarstva, kar se odraža tudi v večjem deležu visokotehnoloških proizvodov in storitev z visoko dodano vrednostjo, večjo 1 Vmesno spremljanje in vrednotenje delovanja SRIP-ov v obdobju 2017-2019, IER, FDV, FM UP, avgust 2019. 10 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 vključitvijo v mednarodne verige vrednosti ter boljšim položajem slovenskih podjetij znotraj teh verig vrednosti. Slovenska industrijska strategija bo s spodbujanjem zelenega in digitalnega prehoda prispe- vala k izpeljavi Evropskega zelenega dogovora ter Načrta za okrevanje in odpornost po pan- demiji COVID-19 skladno s priporočili in ukrepi EU na tem področju.2 Slika 1: Umestitev SIS v dokumente razvojnega načrtovanja Raziskovalna in Kohezijska politika EU inovacijska strategija Strategija pametne Načrt za ogkrevanje in specializacije -S4 odpornost Strategija razvoja Slovenije - Obzorje, InvestEU in Digitalna Slovenija SRS 2030 drugi evr. programi Program razvoja NEPN 2030 podeželja Dolgoročna podnebna Proračun RS strategija 2050 »Slovenska industrijska strategija« - SIS Program Akcijski načrti izvajanja finančnih posameznih spodbud MGRT področij Razvojni programi ostalih politik Vir: MGRT. 2 Priporočilo Sveta EU COM (2020) 524 final in Priporočilo EK COM (2020) 456 final, oboje z dne 27. 5. 2020. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 11

2.1 — Namen

2.1. Namen Namen Slovenske industrijske strategije (v nadaljevanju SIS) je postaviti usmeritve za nadalj- nji razvoj slovenske industrije v širšem smislu za obdobje od leta 2021 do leta 2030. Industrija v širšem smislu vključuje tudi z njo povezane storitve. Meje med industrijo in storitvami so namreč čedalje bolj zamegljene. Področja, ki so bila prej ločena, se zdaj prepletajo, storitve pa v vrednostnih verigah ustvarjajo čedalje večjo dodano vrednost procesom proizvodnje. Pri tem so pomembne predvsem različne, na znanju temelječe storitve, ki vplivajo na učinkovi- tost in konkurenčnost celotnega gospodarstva (npr. razvoj, dizajn, digitalne in informacijske storitve). Storitve prispevajo tudi čedalje večji delež dodane vrednosti v izvozu industrijskih proizvodov (do 50 %). Industrijska politika se v zadnjih desetletjih v razvitih državah krepi. Krepi se tudi sistemski pristop k industrijski politiki, ki poudarja ustvarjanje trgov (npr. za nizkoogljične tehnologije in produkte), zasledovanje strateških ciljev ter povezovanje struktur, institucij in politik. Slovenija se, tako kot celotna Evropska unija, sooča z mnogimi izzivi: tehnološke spremembe, digitalizacija, družbeno-politične spremembe, migracije, globalizacija, kopičenje (neobdela- nih) odpadkov, vse težji dostop do strateških surovin, podnebne spremembe, izguba biotske raznovrstnosti in izzivi, povezani z zdravjem. Vsi ti izzivi predstavljajo na eni strani grožnjo, na drugi pa tudi priložnost, odvisno od tega, kako uspešno se z njimi soočamo. Slovenija potrebuje močno industrijsko bazo, ki se bo lahko soočala z mednarodno konkurenco, pa tudi z zgoraj navedenimi izzivi. Evropski observatorij za grozde in spremembe v industriji je opredelil deset megatrendov, ki so zelo pomembni za industrijski razvoj v Evropi3. Ob tem izpostavljamo tudi vidik negoto- vosti napovedovanja prihodnjega razvoja, kar se je pokazalo v globalnih krizah, tudi sedanji, povezani s pandemijo COVID-19. V skladu s tem se pojavlja potreba po mehanizmu, s po- močjo katerega bi se povečali hitrost in odzivnost na dane izzive. Obravnavani megatrendi v študiji Evropskega observatorija za grozde in spremembe v industriji se razvrščajo v tri kategorije s posebnimi grožnjami in možnostmi (Priloga 3): 1. Tehnološki megatrendi, vključno z avtomatizacijo, integracijo predmetov in objektov, umetno inteligenco, področjem kvantnih tehnologij, kibernetsko varnostjo. 2. Socialno-politični megatrendi, ki zajemajo globalizacijo, geopolitiko ter demografske premike. 3. Megatrendi okoljskega in pametnega gospodarstva, ki so bolj specifični za kontekst EU, vključno z zelenim in krožnim gospodarstvom, urbanizacijo ter pametnimi mesti in pametno mobilnostjo. V skladu s trendi in izzivi SIS naslavlja: 1. horizontalno naravo industrijske politike in potrebo po izboljšanju okvirnih pogojev in poslovnega okolja, 3 Vir: »How to tackle challenges in a future-oriented EU industrial strategy« na osnovi European Observatory of Clusters and Industrial Change (2019). 12 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 2. tematski pristop, ki pomeni odgovor na družbene izzive (obvladovanje podnebnih spre- memb, onesnaževanje, prehod v nizkogljično krožno gospodarstvo, digitalna preobraz- ba), 3. krepitev strateških verig vrednosti, predvsem na prednostnih področjih Slovenske stra- tegije pametne specializacije (S4) in 4. dvig odpornosti in odzivnosti na zunanje dejavnike, ki jih prinašajo globalni megatrendi in nepričakovane motnje (t. i. black swans).

2.2 — Vizija in poslanstvo

2.2. Vizija in poslanstvo Vizija: Slovenska industrija je zelena, ustvarjalna in pametna. Slika 2: Prikaz prepletanja treh področij zelena ustvarjalna pametna Zeleni, ustvarjalni in pametni razvoj se med sabo prepletajo in dopolnjujejo. Prehoda v niz- koogljično krožno gospodarstvo na primer ne bomo dosegli brez razumevanja primerjalnih prednosti na področju surovin, uvajanja sistemskega pristopa in brez visoke stopnje ustvar- jalnosti, ob podpori pametnih rešitev, ki jih prinaša digitalizacija. Zato je treba usmeritve razvoja obravnavati, predvsem pa tudi izvajati, povezano. Vsaka od izvedbenih rešitev, ki jih bomo oblikovali na podlagi predlagane strategije, bo smiselno vključevala vse tri kompo- nente in vidike ter tako prispevala k doseganju sinergijskih učinkov in bolj učinkoviti porabi javnih in zasebnih virov. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 13 Poslanstvo: Slovenska industrijska strategija bo z uravnoteženim spodbujanjem vseh treh komponent trajnostnega razvoja (družba, okolje, gospodarstvo) zagotavljala konkurenčnost gospodarstva in ustvarila pogoje za prestrukturiranje industrije s krepitvijo znanja, ustvarjalnosti in inovativnosti za nova in bolj kakovostna delov- na mesta z večjo dodano vrednostjo ter prehod v zeleno, ustvarjalno in pametno gospodarstvo.

2.3 — Cilji in kazalniki

2.3. Cilji in kazalniki Spodaj navedeni kazalniki predstavljajo vrednostne cilje, ki naj bi odražali dosegljive ciljne vrednosti v letu 2030. Krovni kazalnik Produktivnost dela, merjena z dodano vrednostjo na zaposlenega po delovnih urah, je ključ- ni krovni kazalnik, na podlagi katerega bomo spremljali uspešnost izvajanja slovenske indu- strijske strategije. Odraža namreč finančne rezultate poslovanja ter vse podporne aktivnosti. Na ravni predelovalnih dejavnosti kot celote bo po 3,7-odstotni rasti produktivnosti dela v 2009–2018, v 2019–2020 prišlo do njene stagnacije, ki bo posledica ukrepov države za zaš- čito delovnih mest. V kasnejšem, 10-letnem obdobju, pričakujemo nadpovprečno rast tega kazalnika, ki bo posledica rastoče avtomatizacije in digitalizacije poslovanja, kar bo nujen predpogoj za ohranjanje konkurenčnosti slovenskega izvoza. Do 2030 naj bi produktivnost dela, merjena z dodano vrednostjo na zaposlenega, dosegla 66.000 EUR. V večini dejavnosti poslovnega sektorja je bila v zadnjih letih rast produktivnosti primerljiva oziroma višja kot v povprečju EU, zaostanek pa ostaja velik v gradbeništvu in storitvah IKT. Glede na to, da je digitalna preobrazba eden ključnih elementov strategije, produktivnost pa v tej panogi zaostaja, je temu področju potrebno nameniti posebno pozornost (UMAR, PoR 2020). 2018 2020 2030 2019–2020, 2021–2030 ocena povprečne rasti Produktivnost dela 43.679 43.711 65.832 0,0 % 4,2 % Vira: Statistični urad RS (strukturna statistika), Analitika GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. 14 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Drugi splošni kazalniki finančnega poslovanja Med drugimi splošnimi kazalniki poslovanja navajamo ključne kazalnike poslovanja, ki smo jih opredelili v poglavju o napovedi. Izvoz bo še naprej poganjal rast prodaje, vendar njegov pomen v prodaji (t. i. izvozna usmerjenost) ne bo več naraščal tako kot v preteklem obdobju, ker pričakujemo stabilizacijo povpraševanja po industrijskih izdelkih tudi na domačem trgu. 2018 2030 Prodaja (mrd EUR) 31,2 41,8 Izvoz (mrd EUR) 21,8 29,8 EBITDA (mrd EUR) 3,4 4,7 Investicije (mrd EUR) 2,0 2,3 Izdatki predelovalne dejavnosti za R&R (mrd EUR) 0,49 0,80 Uvrstitev na lestvici svetovne konkurenčnosti WEF 35. mesto (2019) 30. mesto med 141-imi državami Viri: Statistični urad RS (strukturna statistika), Analitika GZS, EIS, The Global Competitiveness Report 2019, World Economic Forum. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2030 – napoved. Podkazalniki I. Področje »zelenega« razvoja Na področju zelenega razvoja je ključni kazalnik snovna produktivnost, merjena z razmer- jem med BDP ter porabljenimi surovinami in materiali. To je tudi kazalnik uspešnosti izpe- ljave 8. cilja Strategije razvoja Slovenije 2030, prehoda v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo. Slovenija, zadnji EU, zadnji znani 2030, cilj znani podatek podatek Snovna produktivnost (SKM/kg)4 1,9 (2018) 2,2 (2018) 3,50 (UMAR, PoR 2020) Krožna (sekundarna) raba materiala* 10,4 (2019) 11,9 (2019) Povprečje EU v letu 2030 Delež zaposlenih v krožnem 2,02 % (2018) 1,71 % (2018) 3,5 % gospodarstvu glede na skupno število zaposlenih, v %* % MSP, ki ponujajo zelene izdelke ali 23 % (2017) 24 % (2017) Nad storitve** povprečjem EU v letu 2030 % MSP, ki so sprejela ukrepe za 52 % (2017) 57 % (2017) Povprečje EU v učinkovito rabo virov ** letu 2030 % MSP, ki so sprejela ukrepe za 47 % (2017) 63 % (2017) Povprečje EU v učinkovito rabo energije ** letu 2030 4 Navedeni cilj izhaja iz SRS 2030. Snovna produktivnost se izračuna z delitvijo BDP v standardu kupne moči z domačo porabo snovi - DPS). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 15 Slovenija, zadnji EU, zadnji znani 2030, cilj znani podatek podatek Skupne emisije toplogrednih plinov Brez cilja v 2020 -20 % v 2020 -36 % glede na (NEPN) glede na 1990 glede na 1990 2005 Delež energije iz obnovljivih virov 22 % (2019) 19,7 % (2019) 27 % (Eurostat) »Eko-inovacijski« indeks 94 (2019) 100 110 Emisijska produktivnost, SKM/mio. kg 3,2 (2018) 3,4 (2017) Povprečje EU v CO2 (UMAR, PoR 2020) letu 2030 Število okoljskih certifikatov ISO 14001 209 (2018) 172,5 (2018) 250 v letu 2030 na mio prebivalcev (UMAR, PoR 2020) Količina predelanega okroglega lesa v 1,82 mio (2019) / 3 mio Sloveniji za ne-energetsko rabo v m3 Viri: NEPN, Eurostat, SURS, UMAR, Eco-Innovation Scoreborard. Kazalniki, označeni z *, se nanašajo na metodologijo, ki izhaja iz spremljanja izvajanja Akcijskega načrta za krožno gospodarstvo EU 20155. Kazalniki, označeni z **, se nanašajo na raziskavo Flash Eurobarometer 456: SMEs, resource efficiency and green mar- kets, Fieldwork September 2017, Publication January 2018. II. Področje »ustvarjalnega« razvoja Za področje ustvarjalnega razvoja je kot ključni kazalnik izbran inovacijski indeks, ki vklju- čuje različne vidike ustvarjalnosti in inovativnosti. Zadnji znani podatek 2030, cilj Inovacijski indeks (glede na razvitost EU) 84,9 % (2020) 110,0 % Število veljavnih nacionalnih znamk 24.599 (julij 2020) 26.000 Število raziskovalcev v poslovnem sektorju 8.285 (2018) 12.000 Delež inovacijsko aktivnih podjetij 48,6 % (2016–2018) 55,0 % Vključenost v podjetništvo (% od populacije)* 7,8 % (2019) 10,0 % Zaznavanje poslovnih priložnosti (% odraslega 3,6 % (2019) 4,0 % prebivalstva v starosti od 18 do 64 let)* Zaznavanje poslovnih priložnosti (% odraslega 47,6 % (2019) 55,0 % prebivalstva v starosti od 18 do 64 let)* Število hitro rastočih podjetij v zadnjih petih letih 5.347 (2014–2018) 7.000 (2026-2030) Delež zaposlenih v kreativni ekonomiji (glede na 7 % (2017) 10 % vse zaposlene) Bruto dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v KKS 45.527 EUR (2017) 5 % nad povprečjem (BDV) v RS Viri: GEM (kazalniki, označeni z *, se nanašajo na metodologijo GEM), European Innovation Scoreboard 2019, Ajpes, Statistična analiza stanja KKS v Sloveniji 2008–2017, Tm View, napovedi: Analitika GZS, URSIL. 5 Eurostat - Circular Economy Indicators, Eurostat - Circular Economy Indicators - Monitoring framework. 16 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 III. Področje »pametnega« razvoja Na področju pametnega razvoja, ki vključuje uvajanje naprednih tehnologij, kot ključni ka- zalnik izpostavljamo DESI indeks, ki meri stopnjo digitalizacije v gospodarstvu in družbi. Zadnji znani podatek 2030, cilj DESI indeks 51,2 točke (16. mesto),2020 9. mesto Delež izdatkov za RRD v BDP v poslovnem sektorju 1,40 % (2018) 2,00 % Število patentnih prijav slovenskih prijaviteljev pri 121 (2019) 150 Evropskem patentnem uradu Število robotov na 10.000 zaposlenih v industriji 174 (2018) 250 Digitalni indeks (visok in zelo visok v podjetjih z več 26 % (2018) 35 % kot 10 zaposlenimi) DESI - 2 Človeški kapital 48,3 (15.), 2020 8. mesto DESI - Integracija digitalne tehnologije 40,9 (15.) 2020 8. mesto Delež visokotehnoloških proizvodov v izvozu 19,5 % (2018) 25 % Delež predelovalnih podjetij, ki imajo digitalno stra- 8 % (2019) 15 % tegijo za preoblikovanje poslovanja podjetij Viri: DG Connect, EPO, ARRS, International Federation of Robotics, 2019, Ajpes, Statistični urad RS, napovedi: Ana- litika GZS, UMAR (Poročilo o razvoju 2020). Slovenska industrijska strategija bo hkrati prispevala k doseganju svetovnih ciljev trajnostne- ga razvoja, kot so opredeljeni z Agendo 2030 (»Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs«), še zlasti njenih ciljev: 1. Dostojno delo in gospodarska rast, 2. Industrija, inovacije in infrastruktura, 3. Trajnostna mesta in skupnosti, 4. Odgovorna uporaba in proizvodnja, 5. Podnebni ukrepi. Spremljanje napredka pri doseganju ciljev trajnostnega razvoja preko izbranih kazalnikov, ki so relevantni za Slovenijo, beleži SURS na spletni strani stat.si.

2.4 — Nabor ukrepov in institucionalni okvir

2.4. Nabor ukrepov in institucionalni okvir Za izvajanje SIS je na razpolago spodnji nabor ukrepov, ki se glede na področje razvoja razli- kujejo po pomenu. S temi »standardnimi« ukrepi lahko spodbujamo tako zeleni in ustvarjal- ni kot tudi pametni razvoj, pri čemer je potrebno te ukrepe ustrezno oblikovati in usmeriti. Usmeritve se odslikavajo že v posameznih poglavjih zelenega, ustvarjalnega in pametnega razvoja, skupno in povezovalno pa so navedene v okviru poglavja »Usmeritve za povezan ze- SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 17 leni, ustvarjalni in pametni razvoj«, kjer so določeni tudi nosilci izvajanja in ocena potrebnih finančnih sredstev. Nabor ukrepov/instrumentov po področjih Ukrepi / instrumenti RRI 1. Raziskave, razvoj in inovacije 2. Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti 3. Vključevanje v mednarodne raziskovalno-razvojne in inovacij- ske projekte in programe 4. Mreženje in sodelovanje na področju RRI PODJETNIŠTVO 5. Podporno okolje za podjetja 6. Promocija podjetništva in inovativnosti 7. Spodbujanje zagonskih podjetij in podjetij s potencialom hitre rasti 8. Podpora rasti in razvoju MSP 9. Netehnološke inovacije in poslovni modeli 10. Spodbujanje investicij INTERNACIONALIZACIJA 11. Podpora internacionalizaciji KADRI 12. Krepitev kompetenc, usposabljanje, prekvalifikacija, prilagaja- nje demografskim spremembam POSLOVNO OKOLJE 13. Infrastruktura 14. Zakonodaja in poslovno okolje Potreben je sistematičen pristop, ki povezuje vsa tri področja razvoja, hkrati pa je treba pos- krbeti za ustrezen institucionalni okvir izvajanja SIS. V tem oziru je potrebno nosilce izvaja- nja SIS opolnomočiti tako s kadrovskega kot tudi s strokovnega vidika. Institucionalni okvir izvajanja SIS tvorijo vsi resorji, na katere se nanašajo usmeritve posa- meznih področij. Pomembno vlogo na posameznih področjih pa imajo tudi naslednje insti- tucije: • Javna agencija Republike Slovenije za spodbujanje podjetništva, internacionalizacije, tu- jih investicij in tehnologije - SPIRIT Slovenija, javna agencija, • Slovenski podjetniški sklad – SPS, • Slovenski regionalno razvojni sklad – SRRS, • Slovenska izvozna in razvojna banka - SID, • Javna agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije – ARRS, • Ekosklad idr.. 18 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 3. PREDELOVALNE DEJAVNOSTI V SLOVENIJI IN EU

3.1 — Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji v 2008–2018

3.1. Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji v 2008–2018 V času po gospodarski krizi leta 2008 se je ponovno izkazalo, da je industrija vir odpornosti, inovacij in celo socialne stabilnosti. Kot je bilo že uvodoma poudarjeno, je slovenska prede- lovalna dejavnost v letu 2019 skupno prispevala 23,2 % k dodani vrednosti gospodarstva, kar jo uvršča na tretje mesto v EU-27, za Irsko in Češko. Povprečje EU-27 je 16,7 %. Trenutna povprečna dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v predelovalni dejavnosti znaša 44.000 EUR. Evropska unija se zaveda potrebe po »reindustrializaciji«, zato si je že leta 2012 zadala cilj doseči 20-odstotni delež industrije v BDP do 2020. Predelovalne dejavnosti ustvarijo skoraj tretjino prihodkov od prodaje (31,3 mrd EUR) in okoli dve tretjini celotnega izvoza (21,7 mrd EUR od skupno 30,9 mrd EUR v letu 2018). Po podatkih Statističnega urada za leto 2018 je bilo v industriji v Sloveniji aktivnih 21.158 podjetij. Kar 93 % industrijskih podjetij (19.671 podjetij) je bilo registriranih v predelovalnih dejavnostih, v njih pa je bilo zaposlenih malo manj kakor 201.722 oseb. V nadaljevanju so opisani primerjalni kazalniki v zadnjem razpoložljivem letu (2018)6 ter primerjava z letom 2008. Podrobnejšo analizo slovenske predelovalne dejavnosti v zadnjem desetletju vsebuje Priloga 1. Gospodarski subjekti iz predelovalnih dejavnosti so v letu 2018 ustvarili za 31,3 mrd EUR prihodkov od prodaje na osnovi prodajne vrednosti kupcem zaračunanih prodanih proizvodov ali trgovskega blaga in materiala ter opravljenih storitev. V 2018 so predelovalne dejavnosti ustvarile za 5,4 mrd EUR več prihodkov kot leta 2008 oziroma so ti nominalno porasli za 21 % oziroma realno za 11,4 %7. 6 Seštevki po posameznih dejavnostih predelovalnih dejavnostih se pri nekaterih podatkih ne ujemajo s podatki za predelovalne dejavnosti skupaj zaradi zaupnosti podatkov; v takih primerih smo znotraj predelovalnih dejavnosti upoštevali le podatke za gospodarske družbe. 7 Za deflacioniranje upoštevan deflator skupni indeks cen industrijskih proizvodov pri proizvajalcih v predeloval- nih dejavnostih. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 19 Ključne skupine prede- Prihodek Izvoz, Dodana Število Bruto Dodana lovalnih dejavnosti od pro- mio EUR vrednost, zaposle- poslovni vrednost daje, mio EUR nih presežek na za- mio EUR (EBIT- poslenega DA), mio EUR PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 31.279 21.764 8.811 201.896 3.436 43.679 Prehrambna 2.385 630 593 16.247 229 36.324 Tekstilna 898 661 263 9.166 83 28.741 Lesna 1.413 777 439 13.169 168 34.238 Papirna 1.297 743 300 5.705 100 36.556 Kemična 5.991 4.762 2.051 24.712 972 64.109 Nekovinska 1.014 589 336 6.967 150 48.051 Kovinska 6.433 4.293 1.748 42.712 642 40.933 Elektro 4.387 3.525 1.115 28.024 375 39.804 Strojna 6.978 5.479 1.795 41.193 642 43.593 Druge 484 304 170 4.315 71 39.440 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS, podatki leto 2018. Prihodki od prodaje na domačem trgu so v letu 2018 znašali 9,4 mrd EUR in so bili v pri- merjavi z letom 2008 nižji za 682 mio EUR, kar predstavlja upad za 6,8 %. Znižanje prodaje so zaznamovali predvsem stečaji nekaterih večjih podjetij v lesni, tekstilni ter nekovinski in- dustriji, kakor tudi prestrukturiranje teh panog. V zadnjih 10-ih letih (2018/2008) so se znot- raj predelovalnih dejavnosti prihodki na domačem trgu zvišali le v strojni industriji (27 mio EUR), v drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (16 mio EUR) in kovinski industriji (44.000 EUR). Predelovalne dejavnosti so v 2018 beležile 21,7 mrd EUR izvoza ter so tako za 43,8 % ozi- roma za 6,6 mrd EUR presegle izvoz iz leta 2008. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) se je znotraj predelovalnih dejavnosti izvoz najbolj zvišal v strojni, kovinski, kemični, elektro in- dustriji. Le tekstilna industrija v 2018 ni uspela doseči nivojev izvoza iz leta 2008. V 2018 je bilo v predelovalnih dejavnostih 201.896 zaposlenih oseb8, kar je bilo za 20.000 oseb oziroma za 9 % manj kot leta 2008. Dodana vrednost v stroških faktorjev9 je v 2018 v predelovalnih dejavnostih znašala 8,8 mrd EUR, kar je bilo za 2,1 mrd EUR oziroma za 30,7 % več kot v letu 2008. Bruto marža10 se je v zadnjih enajstih letih gibala na ravni med 25,6 in 29 %. V letu 2018 je bila v primerjavi z letom 2008 bruto marža višja za 2,1 odstotnih točk. Dodana vrednost na zaposlenega je v 2018 v predelovalnih dejavnostih znašala 44.000 EUR, kar je bilo za 43,5 % več oziroma za 13.200 več kot v letu 2008. Za primerjavo - BDP na prebivalca se je v tem obdobju zvišal za 17,7 %. 8 Pri pravnih osebah, samostojnih podjetnikih ali drugih registriranih fizičnih osebah. 9 Dodana vrednost v stroških faktorjev se izračuna kot bruto prihodek iz poslovnih dejavnosti po popravkih za subvencije za poslovanje in posredne davke. Dodana vrednost se v stroških faktorjev računa ‚bruto‘, ker se popravki vrednosti (kot je npr. amortizacija) ne odštejejo. Od leta 2010 naprej se pri izračunu dodane vrednosti upoštevajo tudi subvencije, dotacije, regresi, kompenzacije in drugi prihodki, ki so povezani s poslovnimi učinki. 10 Delež dodane vrednosti v prihodkih. 20 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Poslovni subjekti so v letu 2018 za investicije v opredmetena osnovna sredstva11 namenili slabi 2 mrd EUR, kar je bilo za 14 % več kot v letu 2008. Zadnji dve poslovni leti sta bili in- vesticijsko zelo intenzivni, kar je povezano z visoko izkoriščenostjo kapacitet v predelovalnih dejavnostih, rastjo razpoložljivega dohodka in ugodno razpoložljivostjo finančnih virov. Bruto domači izdatki za raziskave in razvoj12 so v letu 2018 v predelovalnih dejavnostih znašali 488,6 mio EUR, kar je bilo za 159,3 mio EUR več kot v letu 2008 oziroma za 48,4 % več. V celotnem poslovnem sektorju so izdatki za raziskave in razvoj znašali 662,4 mio EUR. Izdatki RRD v predelovalnih dejavnostih so tako znašali 73,8 % izdatkov celotnega poslovne- ga sektorja. Sektor države je v letu 2018 nastopal med viri financiranja za RRD v poslovnem sektorju s 6,2-odstotnim deležem. Na ravni Slovenije so celotni bruto domači izdatki za RRD v Sloveniji v letu 2018 znašali 892,7 mio EUR oziroma 2,0 % BDP. Delež financiranja države je znašal 0,5 %. Cilj 2030 predvideva povečanje vlaganj v RRD do leta 2020 na najmanj 3 % BDP.

3.2 — Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji, EU-27

3.2. Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji, EU-27 in CEE-4 v 2008–2017 Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile bistveno nižje prihodke na zaposlenega (152.000 EUR) kot v EU-27 (mediana) (191.000 EUR) ter malenkost višje, kot znaša v sku- pini primerljivih srednjeevropskih držav (v nadaljevanju CEE-413) (mediana) (151,7 tisoč EUR). Predelovalna dejavnost je v Sloveniji ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (43,3 tisoč EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (32,5 tisoč EUR) ter nekoliko nižjo, kot znaša mediana držav EU-27 (43,7 tisoč EUR). Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile višjo bruto maržo, kot znaša mediana v državah EU-27 ter mediana v CEE-4 (SLO 28,5 %, EU 23,8 %, CEE-4 22 %). Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile nekoliko višjo EBITDA maržo (poslovni presežek/ prihodkih), kot znaša mediana v državah EU-27 ter mediana držav CEE-4 (SLO 11,7 %, EU- 27 10,2 %, CEE-4 10,8 %). V 10-letnem obdobju (2008–2017) so najvišjo EBITDA maržo beležile države CEE-4 (mediana), ki je bila višja od zabeležene v Sloveniji. Delež bruto investicij v opredmetena osnovna sredstva v primerjavi s prihodki je bil ne- koliko višji kot v državah CEE-4 ter višji kot v državah EU-27 (SLO 5,6 %, EU 4,2 %, CEE- 4 5,2 %). Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile višji strošek dela v dodani vrednosti, kot znaša mediana v državah EU-27 (60,5 %) oziroma mediana v CEE-4 (50,7 %). 11 Investicije v vsa nova in obstoječa opredmetena osnovna sredstva (zgradbe, stroje in opremo, patente, licence, itd.), katerih doba uporabnosti je daljša kakor eno leto, vključno z neproizvedenimi opredmetenimi osnovnimi sredstvi, kakor je zemljišče. 12 Skupni notranji izdatki za raziskave in razvoj, ki se izvajajo na ozemlju Republike Slovenije. 13 V to skupino držav spadajo Poljska, Češka, Madžarska in Slovaška, ki imajo podobno strukturo gospodarstva kot Slovenija in so na podobni ravni gospodarske razvitosti. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 21 Odstopanje Slovenije14 po oddelkih predelovalnih dejavnosti v primerjavi z mediano kazalnika pri EU-27, 2017 Ključne skupine prede- Bruto Investicije EBITDA Strošek DV/ Prihodki/ lovalnih dejavnosti marža /prihodkih marža dela v DV zaposle- zaposle- v o. t.15 v o. t. v o. t.16 v o. t. nega nega PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 4,7 1,5 1,5 2,3 -379 -38.048 Prehrambna 3,0 0,0 0,4 3,8 2.714 -4.797 Tekstilna -0,1 2,0 1,8 -6,9 3.316 -1.271 Lesna 2,8 2,4 0,8 0,0 2.096 0 Papirna -2,6 -2,7 -2,4 2,0 -2.310 0 Kemična 8,8 1,6 4,0 2,6 -7.668 -56.751 Nekovinska 2,1 -0,3 1,7 -4,7 -1.538 -23.168 Kovinska 0,0 1,6 0,5 -0,7 0 -1.113 Elektro -0,8 1,6 0,8 -0,3 -3.419 -45.981 Strojna 0,2 2,1 0,6 -2,1 0 -32.280 Druge 2,5 0,3 4,7 -9,3 13.999 30.145 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Slovenija je pri glavnini kazalnikov prehitevala CEE-4, medtem ko v primerjavi z EU-27 kljub višji bruto marži zaostaja pri produktivnosti dela. Kljub temu je bila EBITDA marža v slovenskih predelovalnih dejavnostih predvsem zaradi večjega pomena farmacevtske indu- strije znotraj kemične industrije oziroma predelovalnih dejavnosti višja kot v EU-27. Podrobnejšo primerjalno analizo vsebuje Priloga 2.

3.3 — Evropski okvir

3.3. Evropski okvir V letu 2020 se je gospodarstvo Slovenije, EU in širše po svetu soočilo s pandemijo COVID-19, ki je močno zaznamovala poslovanje. Povzročila je motnje v dobavnih verigah, industrijski proizvodnji, zunanji trgovini in pretoku kapitala. Šok, ki ga doživlja gospodarstvo, je veliko hujši od zadnje gospodarsko-finančne krize iz leta 2008. Ranljivost izhaja iz močne vpetosti Slovenije in EU v globalne verige vrednosti. Zaradi očitne gospodarske soodvisnosti Evrope je pomembno, da bo okrevanje šlo tudi v smeri krepitve evropske industrijske in strateške avtonomije. Z vidika posodabljanja in prestrukturiranja gospodarstva je na mestu razmislek o diverzifikaciji gospodarstva, da bo bolje pripravljeno na tveganja, ki jih prinaša vpetost v globalne verige vrednosti. Kot se je pokazalo med pandemijo COVID-19, je smiselno, da se 14 Za koliko je vrednost kazalnika v Sloveniji višja od mediane kazalnika držav EU-27. 15 Izračun dodane vrednosti v prihodkih. 16 EBITDA marža je izračun poslovnega presežka v prihodkih. 22 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 podjetja z identifikacijo tveganj in načrtovanjem ukrepov za njihovo obvladovanje pripravijo na nemoteno poslovanje tudi v času motenj. Tako Slovenija kot celotna EU v dani situaciji pripravljata in izvajata ukrepe za blažitev krize in ponovno okrevanje gospodarstva. Da bi okrevanje postalo trajnostno, celostno, vključu- joče in pravično za vse države članice, je Evropska komisija pripravila Načrt za okrevanje in odpornost za Evropo17, v okviru katerega je predlagala oblikovanje novega instrumenta, t. i. »EU naslednje generacije«, ki prinaša precejšnja finančna sredstva tudi za Slovenijo. Na osnovi tega države članice EU pripravljajo nacionalne Načrte za okrevanje in odpornost, v okviru katerih je vsaj 37 % sredstev namenjenih za zeleni, 20 % pa za digitalni prehod gospo- darstva. S tem je omogočeno uresničevanje Evropskega zelenega dogovora in pospeševanje digitalne preobrazbe. Evropski zeleni dogovor18 (v nadaljevanju EZD), predstavljen konec leta 2019, služi kot kaži- pot ukrepov za EU, ki naslavljajo okoljske in podnebne izzive sodobne družbe skozi različne družbene sektorje s ciljem, da bi do leta 2050 Evropa postala prva podnebno nevtralna celina na svetu. Gre za prispevek EU k izpolnjevanju Pariškega podnebnega sporazuma, Konvencije o biološki raznovrstnosti ter drugih mednarodnih zavez. Pariški sporazum države zavezuje k omejitvi dviga povprečne globalne temperature občutno pod dve stopinji Celzija do konca stoletja glede na predindustrijsko dobo in jih spodbuja k ukrepom za omejitev na 1,5 sto- pinje. Doseganje podnebno nevtralnega in krožnega gospodarstva zahteva pravočasno in celovito mobilizacijo industrije in širše družbe. Največjo pozornost namenja gospodarstvu in skupnim strategijam, ki dajejo usmeritve za njegov prihodnji razvoj. Del EZD je tudi t. i. »Mehanizem za pravični prehod«, ki bo spodbujal socialno pravičnost pri prehodu na pod- nebno nevtralno gospodarstvo v najbolj ranljivih premogovniških regijah in regijah z ogljič- no intenzivnim gospodarstvom. Preoblikovanje industrijskega sektorja in vseh vrednostnih verig je dolgotrajno in po oceni traja 25 let, celo generacijo. Da bo dosežena vizija podnebne nevtralnosti do leta 2050, je treba v naslednjih petih letih sprejeti potrebne odločitve in uk- repe. To je še posebno pomembno v kontekstu krepitve podnebnih ambicij EU, saj Evropska komisija predlaga vsaj 55-odstotno neto znižanje emisij toplogrednih plinov na ravni EU glede na leto 1990 že do leta 2030. V letu 2020 je Državni zbor RS sprejel Resolucijo o Nacionalnem programu varstva oko- lja za obdobje 2020–2030 (ReNPVO 2020–2030), s katero so opredeljene usmeritve, cilji, naloge in ukrepi deležnikov varstva okolja ter ukrepi za doseganje ciljev Strategije razvoja Slovenije 2030, ki med strateškimi usmeritvami za doseganje kakovostnega življenja prepoz- nava tudi ohranjeno zdravo naravno okolje. ReNPVO 2020–2030 podaja tudi usmeritve za načrtovanje in izvajanje politik drugih sektorjev, ki vplivajo na okolje. Prioritete industrijske strategije je treba načrtovati z upoštevanjem financiranja, ki je na vo- ljo v okviru Večletnega finančnega okvira EU 2021 – 2027 in Načrta EU za okrevanje in odpornost. Za Slovenijo je skupno predvidenih 10,5 mrd EUR sredstev. Od tega je v okviru Večletnega finančnega okvira Sloveniji dodeljenih 4,5 mrd EUR – 2,9 mrd iz naslova Evrop- ske kohezijske politike in 1,6 mrd iz naslova Skupne kmetijske politike. V okviru Načrta EU 17 Načrt okrevanja za Evropo. 18 COM(2019) 640 final. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 23 za okrevanje in odpornost je za Slovenijo predvidenih 2,1 mrd EUR nepovratnih in 3,6 mrd EUR povratnih sredstev. Sklad za pravični prehod19, ki je del že omenjenega Mehanizma za pravični prehod, bo podpiral gospodarsko diverzifikacijo v najbolj ranljivih premogovniških regijah. To pomeni podporo produktivnim naložbam v mala in srednja podjetja, ustanavljanje novih podjetij, raziskave in inovacije, sanacijo okolja, čisto energijo, izpopolnjevanje in prekvalifikacijo de- lavcev, podporo pri iskanju zaposlitve in aktivno vključevanje v programe za iskalce zaposli- tve ter preoblikovanje obstoječih ogljično intenzivnih obratov, če se bo z naložbami doseglo znatno zmanjšanje emisij in zaščita delovnih mest. Načrtovanje programov Sklada za pravič- ni prehod za obdobje 2021–2027 bo Sloveniji pomagalo nasloviti nekatere izzive, ki jih prina- ša prehod na podnebno nevtralno gospodarstvo. V Sloveniji sta upravičeni Savinjsko-šaleška regija in Zasavje. Naložbe v zeleni prehod, kot so določene v Nacionalnem energetskem in podnebnem na- črtu Slovenije 2030 (s pogledom do 2040), bodo povečale sedanji nizki delež obnovljivih virov energije, krepila se bo energetska infrastruktura, izvajali se bodo ukrepi za zmanjšanje onesnaženosti zraka, ki je v slovenskih krajih in mestih nad povprečjem EU, krepil se bo prehod v krožno gospodarstvo, podpora bo namenjena krepitvi socialnega podjetništva in pospeševanju prizadevanj za omejitev možnih učinkov za regije in sektorje, ki jih bo prehod najbolj prizadel. V letu 2020 so bili predstavljeni Nova industrijska strategija za Evropo20, Strategija za MSP za trajnostno in digitalno Evropo21 ter novi Akcijski načrt za krožno gospodarstvo22. Ko- nec leta 2020 je bila predstavljena še strategija za trajnostno in pametno mobilnost. Ozelenila se bo skupna kmetijska politika. Veliko pozornosti bo namenjene zamenjavi nevarnih snovi z manj oziroma ne-nevarnimi kemikalijami oziroma drugimi alternativami skladno s Traj- nostno strategijo za kemikalije. Sledili bodo ukrepi za zmanjšanje onesnaževanja iz večjih industrijskih naprav. Nova industrijska strategija za Evropo zasleduje tri ključne prednostne naloge, da bi Evro- pa zadržala vodilni položaj v industriji, in sicer: 1. ohraniti svetovno konkurenčnost evropske industrije in enake konkurenčne pogoje na domačem in svetovnem trgu, 2. zagotoviti podnebno nevtralnost Evrope do leta 2050 in 3. oblikovati digitalno prihodnost Evrope. V letu 2021 je Evropska komisija industrijsko strategijo posodobila23 zaradi potrebe po pri- lagoditvi začrtanih ukrepov novim okoliščinam, povezanih s pojavom pandemije Covid-19. Posodobljena strategija potrjuje dosedanje prednostne naloge in je usmerjena v krepitev konkurenčnosti EU industrije ter pomoči in spodbujanju MSP pri soočenju s ključnimi izzi- vi podnebne nevtralnosti in digitalizacije. Osredotoča se na okrepitev odpornosti enotnega 19 COM(2020) 460 final. 20 COM(2020) 102 final. 21 COM(2020) 103 final. 22 COM(2020) 98 final. 23 COM (2021)350 final. 24 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 trga, obravnavanje strateških odvisnosti EU in pospešitev dvojnega prehoda. Industrijska strategija EU poudarja potrebo po celovitih ukrepih za posodobitev in razogljičenje ener- gijsko intenzivnih industrij, za podporo industrijam trajnostne in pametne mobilnosti, za spodbujanje energijske učinkovitosti ter zagotavljanje zadostne in stalne oskrbe z nizko- ogljično energijo po konkurenčnih cenah. Pobude, poznane kot industrijska zavezništva, so prinesle dobre rezultate na področju baterij, plastike in mikroelektronike. Zavezništvom za čisti vodik in nizkoogljično industrijo sledijo še zavezništva za industrijske oblake in platfor- me ter zavezništvo za surovine. Nova Strategija za MSP za trajnostno in digitalno Evropo poudarja, da so mala in srednja podjetja bistvena za konkurenčnost in blaginjo Evrope. Na podlagi nove strategije za MSP bo EU podprla ta podjetja tako, da bo: 1. spodbujala inovacije z novimi sredstvi in vozlišči za digitalne inovacije v okviru trajno- stnega in digitalnega prehoda, 2. zmanjšala birokracijo z odpravo ovir na enotnem trgu in odprtjem dostopa do financi- ranja, 3. olajšala dostop do financiranja z vzpostavitvijo sklada za prve javne ponudbe MSP (pri čemer se bodo naložbe usmerjale preko novega javno-zasebnega sklada) in pobudo ESCALAR (mehanizem za povečanje skladov tveganega kapitala in privabljanje več za- sebnih naložb). Nov Akcijski načrt EU za krožno gospodarstvo kot del nove Industrijske strategije za Evro- po in Evropskega zelenega dogovora predvideva ukrepe, s katerimi bi s svojo zasnovo trajno- stni izdelki postali pravilo in jih bo lažje ponovno uporabiti, popraviti in reciklirati, v največji možni meri pa bodo vključevali reciklirane surovine namesto primarnih, z izjemo lesa. Pri tem je pomemben element, ki mu je v Sloveniji potrebno posvetiti bistveno več pozornosti, vsekakor industrijska simbioza, ko stranski proizvod ali odpadek enega postane surovina za drugega proizvajalca. Ukrepi se bodo osredotočili na sektorje, ki uporabljajo največ vi- rov in kjer so možnosti za njihovo krožnost velike, predvsem na področjih elektronike in IKT, baterij in vozil, embalaže z zmanjšanjem njene prekomerne uporabe; plastike z novimi zahtevami glede vsebnosti recikliranih materialov in ukrepe za zmanjševanje mikroplastike v okolju ter vzpodbujanje uporabe biološko razgradljive plastike (Evropska strategija za plasti- ko v krožnem gospodarstvu). Na področju tekstilnih izdelkov se predvideva nova strategija za krepitev konkurenčnosti in inovativnosti za ponovno uporabo tekstila. Pripravljena bo tudi celovita strategija za trajnostno grajeno okolje, ki spodbuja načela kroženja za stavbe. Ustvariti je treba pogoje za dobro delujoč evropski trg sekundarnih surovin v okviru znamke »Reciklirano v EU«, ki jo načrtuje EU. Krožno gospodarstvo bo imelo neto pozitivne učinke na rast BDP in ustvarjanje delovnih mest, saj se lahko z izvajanjem ambicioznih ukrepov krožnega gospodarstva v Evropi do leta 2030 poveča BDP EU za dodatnih 0,5 % in ustvari približno 700.000 novih delovnih mest. V povezavi s tem velja poudariti vidik rabe surovin. Evropska industrija se sooča z visoko uvozno odvisnostjo od surovin, nestabilnostjo njihovih cen in oteženim dostopom do su- rovin zaradi omejenosti, kar velja predvsem za t. i. kritične surovine. Od leta 1970 do leta 2017 se je letni svetovni obseg pridobivanja surovin potrojil in še narašča, kar je privedlo do pomanjkanja nekaterih kritičnih surovin. Poleg tega približno polovica vseh emisij to- plogrednih plinov in več kot 90 % izgube biotske raznovrstnosti ter pritiska na vodne vire SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 25 izhaja iz pridobivanja naravnih virov in predelave materialov, goriva in hrane. Industrija EU je začela prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo, vendar še vedno ustvarja 20 % emisij toplogrednih plinov v EU. Ostaja preveč »linearna« in odvisna od pretoka na novo prido- bljenih surovin, trgovanja z njimi, njihove predelave in, končno, njihovega odlaganja v obliki odpadkov ali emisij. Zgolj 12 % materialov, ki jih uporablja, izvira iz recikliranih materialov. Zeleni in krožni prehod je priložnost za razširitev trajnostnih gospodarskih dejavnosti, na- ravnanih na ustvarjanje delovnih mest. Vendar pa je preobrazba prepočasna. Evropski Zeleni dogovor bo podprl in pospešil prehod industrije EU na trajnostni model vključujoče rasti. Septembra 2020 je tako Evropska komisija predstavila nov Akcijski načrt EU na področju kritičnih surovin24, v katerem predlaga ukrepe za zmanjšanje odvisnosti EU od tretjih držav z diverzifikacijo oskrbe in izboljšanjem učinkovitosti virov in načeli krožnega gospodarstva. Posodobila je tudi seznam kritičnih surovin. Seznam vsebuje 30 za EU kritičnih surovin. Prvič je bil na seznam dodan element litij (Li), ki je bistven za prehod na e-mobilnost. Komi- sija EU je namreč ugotovila, da bo EU samo za baterije električnih avtomobilov in shranje- vanje energije potrebovala do 18-krat več litija do leta 2030 in do 60-krat več do leta 2050. Akcijski načrt bo prispeval k trajnostni okrepitvi ključnih tržišč za e-mobilnost, baterije, obnovljive energije, obrambne namene in digitalne aplikacije. Naložbe v raziskave in inovacije so ključni instrument za rast produktivnosti in dodane vrednosti, kot tudi pomemben del strategije za okrevanje in odpornost po pandemiji CO- VID-19. Tudi pred krizo je bila Slovenija ocenjena le kot »zmerna inovatorka«, kar pome- ni, da bo treba bistveno pospešiti njena prizadevanja za dohitevanje najuspešnejših držav. Poslovni sektor je zaslužen za 75 % izdatkov za raziskave in razvoj. Upad gospodarske rasti zdaj ponovno ogroža raziskave in razvoj ter inovacije podjetij. Razmeroma nizka stopnja inovativnosti25, zlasti v MSP, upočasnjuje razvoj in širjenje inovativnih poslovnih procesov in rešitev, ki so potrebne v razmerah za izhod iz krize zaradi epidemije. Treba bo vlagati v inovativna MSP, vključno z zagonskimi, katerih dejavnosti vključujejo nastajajoče tehnolo- gije in prelomne inovacije, ter razviti nove modele za podporo njihovi rasti in razvoju, da bi lahko okrepila proizvodnjo. Sodelovanje med akademsko sfero in podjetji je večinoma ome- jeno na srednje- in visokotehnološke sektorje. Učinkovitost okolja za prenos znanja v okviru raziskovalnih organizacij in visokošolskih ustanov je precej neenakomerna in nezadostna. Stanje na tem področju bo treba izboljšati s povezavami med univerzami ter javnimi razisko- valnimi organizacijami in podjetji, kar bo ključno za uspešno pretvorbo znanja v inovacije, izboljšanje uspešnosti raziskav in inovacij ter spodbujanje gospodarske rasti. Za dosego ciljev na področju raziskav, inovacij in konkurenčnosti bo treba povečati vlaganja v raziskave in razvoj do leta 2030. Med drugim bomo podjetja usmerjali k financiranju in vključevanju v razvojno-raziskovalne programe in demonstracijske projekte, tudi z aktivno davčno politiko (davčne olajšave za raziskave in razvoj). Digitalna preobrazba je prav tako eden od bistvenih elementov za okrevanje gospodarstva po krizi. Evropska komisija je 9. marca 2021 v dokumentu »Evropsko digitalno desetle- tje: digitalni cilji za leto 2030«26 predstavila vizijo, cilje in možnosti za uspešno digitalno 24 COM(2020) 474 final. 25 Inovacijska dejavnost podjetij 2016-2018. 26 COM(2021) 118 final. 26 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 preobrazbo Evrope do leta 2030, ki je prav tako ključnega pomena za prehod na podnebno nevtralno, krožno in odporno gospodarstvo. Cilj je doseči digitalno suverenost v odprtem in povezanem svetu ter oblikovanje digitalne politike, ki ljudem in podjetjem omogoča izkori- stek človeško usmerjene, trajnostne in uspešnejše digitalne prihodnosti. S tem namenom je Evropska komisija predlagala ustanovitev digitalnega kompasa, s katerim bi digitalne ambi- cije EU do leta 2030 konkretizirali. Sestavljajo ga štiri glavne točke, ki se nanašajo na znanja in spretnosti, digitalno preobrazbo podjetij, digitalizacijo javnih storitev in zagotovitev varne in trajnostne digitalne infrastrukture. Potencial Slovenije na področju digitalne preobrazbe se je pokazal s hitro uvedbo sistemov dela in šolanja na daljavo ter rešitev prodaje preko spletnih trgovin, ki so jih nekatera slo- venska podjetja uvedla na začetku krize. Večja digitalizacija poslovnih modelov in proizvo- dnih procesov bo te spremembe razširila na večji del gospodarstva. Slovenija lahko gradi na obstoječem znanju in odličnih zmogljivostih na področju robotike, umetne inteligence in blokovne tehnologije, da bi podprla širitev digitalizacije na manj napredne, tradicional- ne panoge. Ponovna uporaba širokega nabora podatkov javnega sektorja in gospodarstva bo, skladno z EU strategijo Skupnih podatkovnih prostorov, lahko podprla razvoj inovacij in gospodarstva na podlagi uporabe velepodatkov. Podatki so ključni tudi za podjetja. Po- datkovna ekonomija v Sloveniji predstavlja še popolnoma neizkoriščen potencial. Strategija mora vzpodbuditi in omogočiti razvoj rešitev v vseh dimenzijah (horizontalno, vertikalno in po časovni osi), t. j. povezljivost sistemov na osnovi strukturiranih podatkov v obstoječih IKT sistemih (analitika in optimizacija procesov, kibernetska varnost, IoT, povezljivost že SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 27 vgrajenih industrijskih in poslovnih sistemov, platforme, digitalni dvojčki,…), ki bodo za posameznika in podjetja hkrati tudi varna. Okrevanje gospodarstva po krizi ni edini razlog za digitalno preobrazbo, temveč ta dviguje tudi produktivnost, konkurenčnost in krepi odpornost gospodarstva in družbe. Veliko pri- pomore tudi k procesni varnosti – preprečevanju nezgod in velikih industrijskih nesreč (so- fisticirani sistemi za zaznavanje in odpravljanje procesnih napak, alarmiranje, ukrepanje,…). Digitalna preobrazba že dolgo ni več zgolj opcija, za katero bi se lahko odločili, temveč je nuja, ki jo mora Slovenija sprejeti na vseh ravneh - ne le v industrijski politiki, temveč tudi na ostalih nivojih življenja posameznikov. Prevelik zaostanek zaradi neustrezne obravnave in posledično prepočasne digitalne preobrazbe bi pomenil zaostanek na vseh zadanih nivojih, ki jih ta strategija zasleduje, še posebej pa na področju pozicioniranja Slovenije v medna- rodnem okolju. Vključevanje digitalnih tehnologij v podjetja je sicer zadnja leta potekalo s podobno hitrostjo kot v EU. Za učinkovito sledenje hitremu napredku na področju uvajanja naprednih IKT-tehnologij za preboj med uspešnejše države EU so potrebna dodatna priza- devanja zlasti za zagotovitev povečanih potreb po kadrih z ustreznimi digitalnimi znanji. Prilagoditi je potrebno izobraževalni sistem in politike vseživljenjskega izobraževanja. Da bi lahko v polnosti izkoristili potencial digitalnih tehnologij, je hkrati potrebno prilagajati zakonodajno okolje. V tem oziru je pomembna uvedba digitalnega testa, ki bo preverjal pri- mernost zakonodaje z digitalnega vidika.

3.4 — Napovedi 2021–2030

3.4. Napovedi 2021–2030 Metodologija Pri napovedih za predelovalno dejavnost smo uporabili pristop od spodaj navzgor (»bottom-up«), ki predvideva napovedi gibanja prodaje, izvoza, dodane vrednosti, EBITDA, zaposlenih in investicij. Pri napovedih smo izhajali tako iz gibanj v zadnjem desetletju, iz odstopanj marž slovenskih panog glede na EU-27, kot tudi iz ocen konkurenčnih prednosti, ki jih uživajo določene panoge v Sloveniji. Napovedi smo oblikovali za dve obdobji, in sicer za dveletno (2019–2020)27 ter desetletno (2021–2030). Ti dve obdobji smo razdelili, ker oce- njujemo, da bo epidemija COVID-19 precej negativno vplivala na vse ključne gospodarske agregate podjetij. V osnovnem scenariju Analitike GZS epidemija COVID-19 po letu 2021 ne bo imela večjega negativnega učinka na poslovanje predelovalne dejavnosti. Glede na potencial rasti določenih dejavnosti, ki v večji meri omogočajo zasledovanje ciljev krožnega gospodarstva, se ob izvedbi ustreznih ukrepov lahko pričakujejo večji pozitivni premiki od spodaj navedenih projekcij. 27 Zadnji razpoložljivi podatki v času priprave analize so za leto 2018. 28 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Prodaja Prodaja predelovalne dejavnosti bo leta 2020 upadla na okoli 30 mrd EUR, kar bo 1,3 mrd EUR manj kot leta 2018. Med dejavnostmi, kjer bo rast prisotna, bosta le prehrambna in ke- mična industrija. Rast pri prvi bo izvirala iz ugodnih trendov, ki so bili posledica COVID-19 (rast cen hrane, povečanje državnih zalog in zalog gospodinjstev), v drugi pa predvsem iz se- gmenta kemične industrije na področju generičnih zdravil. Močneje bodo prizadete ciklične dejavnosti, kot so tekstilna, lesna, kovinska, strojna in elektro industrija. Ključne skupine pre- Prodaja, Prodaja, Prodaja, Letna Letna delovalnih dejavnosti 2018 2020 2030 sprememba sprememba (000 EUR) (000 EUR) (000 EUR) prodaje v % prodaje v % 2019-2020 2021-2030 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 31.279.103 29.905.518 41.806.234 -2,2 % 3,4 % Prehrambna 2.384.590 2.505.310 3.175.858 2,5 % 2,4 % Tekstilna 898.293 827.867 1.009.165 -4,0 % 2,0 % Lesna 1.413.409 1.302.598 1.587.859 -4,0 % 2,0 % Papirna 1.296.843 1.245.488 1.518.243 -2,0 % 2,0 % Kemična 5.990.623 6.232.644 8.791.760 2,0 % 3,5 % Nekovinska 1.014.271 954.328 1.186.333 -3,0 % 2,2 % Kovinska 6.432.627 5.928.309 7.813.794 -4,0 % 2,8 % Elektro 4.387.114 4.085.390 6.654.670 -3,5 % 5,0 % Strojna 6.977.697 6.363.834 9.420.029 -4,5 % 4,0 % Druge 483.629 459.750 648.523 -2,5 % 3,5 % Vir: Statistični urad RS, napoved Analitike GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. Primer strukturnih razlik znotraj dejavnosti: proizvodnja papirja in izdelkov iz papirja Proizvodnja papirja in papirnih izdelkov je ločena na proizvodnjo vlaknin, papirja in kartona (sem spadajo vse večje papirne družbe) in pa na proizvodnjo izdelkov iz teh materialov. V drugo skupino spadajo družbe, ki se ukvarjajo pretežno s tiskom, ki je področje v dejavnosti, kjer bo prisotno poslovno prestrukturiranje v smeri zviševanje produktivnosti, tudi z zniževanjem števila zaposlenih. Te družbe so podvržene večji mednarodni konkurenci, tudi iz azijskih držav. Produktivnost dela v prvi dejavnosti znaša na osnovi podatkov Ajpesa pri gospodarskih druž- bah preko 70.000 EUR (2019), v drugi pa 38.000 EUR. Prodaja v prvi dejavnosti je znašala 60 % panožne v 2019, dodana vrednost pa 50 %. V napovedovalnem obdobju tako ocenjujemo, da se bo znotraj papirne industrije segment papirnic krepil po pomenu, segment tiska pa bo beležil nižjo rast poslovnih kategorij, v nekaterih celo negativno (zaposlovanje). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 29 V drugem, 10-letnem obdobju, ocenjujemo, da bo povprečna rast prodaje znašala 3,4 % le- tno, pri čemer bo nadpovprečna v elektro, strojni in kemični industriji. V dejavnostih, ki so podvržene globalni konkurenci ter kjer Slovenija uživa šibkejše konkurenčne prednosti (tekstilna, papirna industrija), bo rast prodaje podpovprečna. V panogah, ki temeljijo na naravnih virih (les), pa bomo z ukrepi za vzpostavljanje pogojev za razvoj panog dosegli višjo rast od trenutno predvidene, ki bo opredeljena v poglavju »3.4. - Industrija, temelječa na lesu in ostalih naravnih obnovljivih materialih«. Celotna prodaja bo v 2030 za 12 mrd EUR višja kot v letu 2020 in bo narasla na 41,8 mrd EUR. Izvoz Epidemija COVID-19 bo v večji meri vplivala na vrednostni padec izvoza v 2019–2020 kot pa na znižanje prodaje na domačem trgu. Posledično naj bi se izvoz predelovalne dejavno- sti v 2020 znižal za 1,1 mrd EUR glede na leto 2018. Kasnejša rast v naslednjem 10-letnem obdobju (3,7 %) naj bi prispevala h krepitvi izvoza na okoli 30 mrd EUR do leta 2030. Delež izvoza v celotni prodaji naj bi se povišal na 71 % (70 % v 2018). Izvoz naj bi najhitreje (no- minalno gledano) naraščal v strojni, elektro in kemični industriji, ki naj bi skupaj prispevale h kar 75 % celotnega povišanja izvoza v obdobju 2021–2030 (+4,8 mrd EUR). Najbolj naj bi se okrepila izvozna usmerjenost v lesni (s 55 na 58 %) in kemični industriji (z 79 % na 81 %). Ključne skupine prede- Izvoz, 2018 Izvoz, 2020 Izvoz, 2030 Letna Letna lovalnih dejavnosti (000 EUR) (000 EUR) (000 EUR) sprememba sprememba izvoza v % izvoza v % 2019-2020 2021-2030 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 21.764.371 20.666.631 29.804.170 -2,6 % 3,7 % Prehrambna 630.020 642.683 830.751 1,0 % 2,6 % Tekstilna 661.489 603.294 749.960 -4,5 % 2,2 % Lesna 777.082 708.718 916.109 -4,5 % 2,6 % Papirna 743.025 706.338 878.055 -2,5 % 2,2 % Kemična 4.762.391 4.974.242 7.084.749 2,2 % 3,6 % Nekovinska 588.995 548.486 688.529 -3,5 % 2,3 % Kovinska 4.293.021 3.939.981 5.295.004 -4,2 % 3,0 % Elektro 3.525.488 3.269.429 5.427.868 -3,7 % 5,2 % Strojna 5.479.127 4.986.641 7.524.632 -4,6 % 4,2 % Druge 303.581 286.819 408.512 -2,8 % 3,6 % Vir: Statistični urad RS, napoved Analitike GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. Dodana vrednost in bruto marža Dodana vrednost se bo gibala precej podobno kot prodaja oziroma bo za njo rahlo zaostajala, kar je posledica naše ocene, da je izhodiščna bruto marža v slovenskem gospodarstvu bila že v letu 2018 nadpovprečno visoka tako glede na mediano EU-27 kot glede na zgodovinsko povprečje. Zato ocenjujemo, da je ob napovedani rasti prodaje in izvoza dovolj ambiciozen cilj, da bruto marža ostane na nivoju iz leta 2018 (28,2 %). V dejavnostih, kjer se bo dodana 30 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 vrednost povečevala hitreje od prodaje, se bo posledično okrepila bruto marža. Glede na leto 2018 bo v 2030 višja v papirni (+1,6 o.t.), tekstilni (+0,9 o.t.), lesni in kovinski industriji (+0,6 o.t.), znižala pa se bo v kemični (-0,7 o.t.) zaradi pritiska na cene generičnih zdravil in elektro industriji28 (-0,4 o.t.) Ključne skupine prede- Dodana Dodana Dodana Letna Letna lovalnih dejavnosti vrednost, vrednost, vrednost, sprememba sprememba 2018 2020 2030 dod. vr. v % dod. vr. v % (000 EUR) (000 EUR) (000 EUR) 2019-2020 2021-2030 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 8.811.030 8.477.406 11.798.624 -1,9 % 3,4 % Prehrambna 593.469 617.445 790.382 2,0 % 2,5 % Tekstilna 263.356 245.244 304.864 -3,5 % 2,2 % Lesna 438.515 404.135 502.384 -4,0 % 2,2 % Papirna 300.052 291.118 376.307 -1,5 % 2,6 % Kemična 2.050.654 2.133.500 2.951.861 2,0 % 3,3 % Nekovinska 336.260 317.693 394.927 -2,8 % 2,2 % Kovinska 1.747.775 1.614.107 2.169.225 -3,9 % 3,0 % Elektro 1.115.439 1.043.035 1.666.908 -3,3 % 4,8 % Strojna 1.795.365 1.647.721 2.415.679 -4,2 % 3,9 % Druge 170.145 163.407 226.086 -2,0 % 3,3 % Vir: Statistični urad RS, napoved Analitike GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. Zaposlenost Povečevanje avtomatizacije in padec izvoza v 2020 zaradi epidemije COVID-19 naj bi pri- spevala k temu, da se bo zaposlenost v obdobju 2019–2020 v povprečju krčila. Podobno bo v desetletju kasneje, ko bo pritisk na dvig konkurenčnosti zahteval večja vlaganja in vitke, ino- vativne modele poslovanja. Svetli izjemi bosta strojna in elektro industrija, kjer bo visoka rast dodane vrednosti preprečevala padec zaposlenosti. Število zaposlenih naj bi se do leta 2020 skrčilo za 7.000 oseb glede na leto 2018, do leta 2030 pa se bo znižalo še za 15.000. Nominal- na rast dodane vrednosti (najbolje odraža organsko rast poslovanja) bo preprečila še hitrej- še znižanje števila zaposlenih, ki bo primarno posledica tako višanja stopnje avtomatizacije proizvodnje kot tudi bolj intenzivnega povezovanja industrije z drugimi deli gospodarstva29. Ključne skupine prede- Zaposleni, Zaposleni, Zaposleni, Letna Letna lovalnih dejavnosti 2018 2020 2030 sprememba sprememba zap. v % zap. v % 2019-2020 2021-2030 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 201.722 193.943 179.222 -1,9 % -0,8 % 28 Znižanje marže v nekaterih industrijah bo posledica konvergence marže k EU povprečju. 29 To pomeni še več povezovanja z domačim storitvenim sektorjem, outsourcingom določenih aktivnosti z visoko dodano vrednostjo (marketing, oblikovanje, PR). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 31 Ključne skupine prede- Zaposleni, Zaposleni, Zaposleni, Letna Letna lovalnih dejavnosti 2018 2020 2030 sprememba sprememba zap. v % zap. v % 2019-2020 2021-2030 Prehrambna 16.338 16.338 14.046 0,0 % -1,5 % Tekstilna 9.163 8.800 6.624 -2,0 % -2,8 % Lesna 12.808 12.051 9.847 -3,0 % -2,0 % Papirna 8.208 7.883 6.441 -2,0 % -2,0 % Kemična 31.987 31.668 27.226 -0,5 % -1,5 % Nekovinska 6.998 6.721 5.778 -2,0 % -1,5 % Kovinska 42.698 40.590 34.896 -2,5 % -1,5 % Elektro 28.023 26.913 29.729 -2,0 % 1,0 % Strojna 41.185 38.751 40.733 -3,0 % 0,5 % Druge 4.314 4.228 3.902 -1,0 % -0,8 % Vir: Statistični urad RS, napoved Analitike GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. Spremenjena struktura sodobnega gospodarstva Dinamiki zmanjševanja zaposlenih v glavnini predelovalnih dejavnostih bo sledila vzporedna rast zaposlovanja v storitvenih sektorjih, ki so vezani na predelovalno dejavnost, še posebej v dejavnosti zaposlovanja napotene delovne sile, montaže, kreativnih industrij, pravnega, davčnega, poslovnega svetovanja, čiščenja in vrste drugih podpornih funkcij. Trendi izločanja podpornih funkcij iz matičnih družb bodo posledica optimizacije poslovnih modelov po vzorih najuspešnejših družb v tujini. Z drugimi besedami to pomeni, da se bo multiplikator zaposlovanja predelovalnih dejavnosti do 2030 povečeval (vsako delovno mesto v predelovalnih dejavnosti bo v večji meri prispevalo k novemu delovnemu mestu v storitvenem delu gospodarstva). Investicije Investicije se bodo po naši oceni v prvem obdobju znižale za petino, potem pa bodo zlagoma naraščale po povprečni letni stopnji 3,7 %. V prvem obdobju se bodo najbolj krčile v strojni, kovinski, tekstilni, lesni in papirni industriji. V obdobju 2019–2020 bodo investicije znašale 5,4 % letne prodaje, kar je nekoliko manj kot v obdobju 2008–2018 (5,5 % letne prodaje). V drugem obdobju bo do leta 2030 v predelovalni dejavnosti za investicije namenjenih v pov- prečju 5,6 % letne prodaje. Najbolj bodo naraščale v kemični in kovinski industriji, kjer bo uresničena polovica celotnih investicij. Relativno pa bodo najbolj narasle v tekstilni industri- ji, ker bodo potrebne za doseganje ustreznega dviga produktivnosti dela. 32 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Ključne skupine prede- Investicije, Investicije, Investicije, Letna spre- Letna spre- lovalnih dejavnosti 2018, v 000 2020, v 000 2030, v 000 memba inv. memba inv. EUR EUR EUR v % 2019- v % 2021- 2020 2030 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 1.975.153 1.612.974 2.348.692 -9,6 % 3,8 % Prehrambna 117.578 103.892 149.406 -6,0 % 3,7 % Tekstilna 38.245 30.978 49.037 -10,0 % 4,7 % Lesna 133.871 108.436 152.959 -10,0 % 3,5 % Papirna 60.432 48.950 69.718 -10,0 % 3,6 % Kemična 437.150 386.266 588.477 -6,0 % 4,3 % Nekovinska 67.746 59.860 82.821 -6,0 % 3,3 % Kovinska 423.567 343.089 512.760 -10,0 % 4,1 % Elektro 203.590 172.319 245.431 -8,0 % 3,6 % Strojna 468.673 338.616 468.502 -15,0 % 3,3 % Druge 24.301 20.568 29.579 -8,0 % 3,7 % Vir: Statistični urad RS, napoved Analitike GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. EBITDA in EBITDA marže EBITDA v 2020 bo za 6 % nižja od tiste v 2018, do 2030 bo naraščala po 3,7-odstotni rasti na 4,7 mrd EUR. V prvem obdobju (2019–2020) bo nominalni padec največji v strojni (40 % padca) in v kovinski industriji (31 % celotnega padca), vseeno pa naj bi v kemični industriji zrasla za 40 mio EUR zaradi večjega povpraševanja po generičnih zdravilih. V drugem ob- dobju (2021-2030) bo kemična industrija prispevala k rasti EBITDA v višini 27 %, strojna v višini 23 % in elektro industrija v višini 18 %. EBITDA marža v predelovalni dejavnosti se bo v 2030 iz 11,0 % v letu 2020 zvišala na 11,3 %. Ključne skupine prede- EBITDA, EBITDA, EBITDA, Letna Letna lovalnih dejavnosti 2018, v 000 2020, v 000 2030, v 000 sprememba sprememba EUR EUR EUR EBITDA v EBITDA v % 2019- % 2021- 2020 2030 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 3.435.310 3.282.032 4.721.170 -2,7 % 3,7 % Prehrambna 228.978 231.274 304.830 0,5 % 2,8 % Tekstilna 83.271 78.350 105.295 -3,0 % 3,0 % Lesna 167.568 141.830 181.554 -8,0 % 2,5 % Papirna 100.046 95.106 134.157 -2,5 % 3,5 % Kemična 971.961 1.011.228 1.399.112 2,0 % 3,3 % Nekovinska 150.270 137.050 170.368 -4,5 % 2,2 % Kovinska 642.121 594.247 814.262 -3,8 % 3,2 % Elektro 374.832 345.445 607.066 -4,0 % 5,8 % SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 33 Ključne skupine prede- EBITDA, EBITDA, EBITDA, Letna Letna lovalnih dejavnosti 2018, v 000 2020, v 000 2030, v 000 sprememba sprememba EUR EUR EUR EBITDA v EBITDA v % 2019- % 2021- 2020 2030 Strojna 642.159 579.548 908.671 -5,0 % 4,6 % Druge 70.756 67.954 95.856 -2,0 % 3,5 % Vir: Statistični urad RS, napoved Analitike GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. Izdatki za raziskave in razvoj Pri napovedi izdatkov za R&R smo sledili ciljni usmeritvi, da izdatki za R&R v zasebnem sektorju dosežejo 1,8 % BDP v letu 2030. Kemična industrija naj bi kljub podpovprečni rasti izdatkov za R&R (5,4 %) v obdobju 2021-2030 prispevala k 43-odstotnemu povečanju ce- lotnih izdatkov za ta namen v predelovalni dejavnosti. Sledila naj bi ji elektro industrija s 26-odstotnim in strojna industrija z 18-odstotnim deležem. Na nacionalnem nivoju je do leta 2030 cilj povečanja vlaganj v raziskave in razvoj najmanj 3 % BDP, od tega najmanj 1 % BDP iz javnih sredstev. Ključne skupine prede- Izdatki za Izdatki za Izdatki za Letna Letna lovalnih dejavnosti R&R, 2018, R&R, 2020, R&R, 2030, sprememba sprememba v 000 EUR v 000 EUR v 000 EUR Izdatkov za Izdatkov za R&R v % R&R v % 2019-2020 2021-2030 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 488.636 446.144 800.364 -4,4 % 6,0 % Prehrambna 7.616 6.169 11.580 -10,0 % 6,5 % Tekstilna 7.026 5.076 9.091 -15,0 % 6,0 % Lesna 4.215 4.215 8.292 0,0 % 7,0 % Papirna 4.642 3.760 6.734 -10,0 % 6,0 % Kemična 212.255 220.830 373.649 2,0 % 5,4 % Nekovinska 4.090 4.090 8.046 0,0 % 7,0 % Kovinska 21.073 17.069 40.409 -10,0 % 9,0 % Elektro 128.820 116.260 208.204 -5,0 % 6,0 % Strojna 79.647 64.514 126.909 -10,0 % 7,0 % Druge 4.610 4.161 7.451 -5,0 % 6,0 % Vir: Statistični urad RS, napoved Analitike GZS. Opomba: leto 2018 - zadnji znani podatek v času priprave analize; leto 2020 - ocena; leto 2030 – napoved. 34 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 4. ZELENI RAZVOJ Zeleni, trajnostni in krožni razvoj gospodarstva postaja trend in hkrati nujnost za ohranjanje dolgoročne mednarodne konkurenčnosti. Prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo smo v Sloveniji umestili med strateške razvojne prioritete. Vlada Republike Slovenije je konec leta 2017 sprejela Strategijo razvoja Slovenije 2030 (v nadaljevanju SRS 2030), kjer je opredelje- nih 12 ključnih ciljev, med katerimi je tudi nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo. Ta cilj bomo dosegli s spodbujanjem inovacij, novih poslovnih modelov, digitalno preobrazbo, učinkovito rabo surovin z zapiranjem snovnih tokov in energije ter prilagajanjem na podnebne spre- membe. V skladu s tem bo potrebno prilagoditi vse politike, od raziskovalno-inovacijske do politike izobraževanja in zaposlovanja. Ključna je tudi prilagoditev in oblikovanje novih kompetenc na vseh nivojih izobraževanja in usposabljanja ter zagotovitev ustreznega števila usposobljenih kadrov. Prav tako je v tem kontekstu pomembno izvajanje ukrepov iz Nacionalnega podnebno energetskega načrta 2030 (v nadaljevanju NEPN 2030). Ključni cilji NEPN-a 2030 so: • zmanjšanje skupnih emisij toplogrednih plinov za 36 %, od tega za 20 % v sektorju ne-ETS (kar je 5 odstotnih točk nad sprejeto zavezo Slovenije), • vsaj 35-odstotno izboljšanje energetske učinkovitosti, kar je višje od cilja. sprejetega na ravni EU (32,5 %), • vsaj 27 % obnovljivih virov energije, kjer je Slovenija zaradi relevantnih nacionalnih okoliščin - v prvi vrsti okoljskih omejitev - morala pristati na nižji cilj od cilja na rav- ni EU (32 %), s prizadevanjem, da se ambicija zviša pri naslednji posodobitvi NEPN-a (2023/24), • 3-odstotna vlaganja v raziskave in razvoj, od tega 1 % javnih sredstev. Izboljšanje energetske in snovne učinkovitosti v vseh sektorjih in posledično zmanjšanje rabe energije in drugih naravnih virov je tudi prvi in ključni ukrep na poti k podnebno nevtralni družbi. Izpolnjevanje NEPN-a nas vodi v zmanjševanje odvisnosti od fosilnih goriv; hkra- ti z NEPN-om podpiramo tudi trajnostne rešitve v prometu (javni trajnostni transport), v stavbah (ogrevanje in hlajenje, celovita prenova) in v industriji (v teku zaradi zagotavljanja konkurenčnosti). NEPN med drugim opredeljuje tudi cilje za zmanjšanje in opuščanje rabe premoga, do leta 2030 za 30 %. Najpozneje do leta 2021 bo sprejeta strategija za opuščanje rabe premoga in prestrukturiranje premogovnih regij v skladu z načelom pravičnega preho- da, ki bo določila natančni časovni načrt opuščanja rabe premoga v Sloveniji. NEPN določa preučitev uporabe možnosti novih jedrskih energij in najkasneje do leta 2027 sprejetje od- ločitve o drugem bloku Nuklearne elektrarne Krško (NEK). Poleg tega določa NEPN tudi postopno zmanjševanje subvencij fosilnim virom energije in njihovo ukinitev. NEPN določa tudi krepitev vlaganj v raziskave in razvoj ter več vlaganj v kadre, ki bodo pomembni za pre- SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 35 hod v podnebno nevtralno družbo. Eno izmed ključnih področij, ki jih izpostavlja NEPN, je tudi prehod v krožno gospodarstvo.

4.1 — Prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo

4.1. Prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo Nov investicijski zagon mora temeljiti na zelenih načelih bolj odpornega in vključujočega podnebno nevtralnega modela za ohranjanje in izboljšanje biotske raznovrstnosti in kakovo- sti življenja za vse, kar je krovni cilj SRS 2030. Gre za spremembo linearnega ekonomskega modela, ki deluje po načelu »vzemi, porabi, zavrzi«, v krožni ekonomski model, ki temelji na čim daljšem ohranjanju vrednosti materialov in izdelkov, nadomeščanju produktov s sto- ritvami, prehodu od lastništva k souporabi ter uporabi digitalizacije. Nove tehnologije, os- novane na digitalizaciji, obnovljivih virih energije in razvijajočih hibridnih tehnologijah, kot so dodajalne ali aplikativne tehnologije (3D tiskanje) z novimi in alternativnimi materiali, so podporne tehnologije za prehod v krožno gospodarstvo. Krožni koncept (poimenovan tudi 3R – »reduce, reuse, recycle«) stremi k cilju zapiranja snovnih tokov na način, da se količina odpadkov minimizira oziroma uporabi kot vir. Izdelki so zasnovani tako, da jih je možno popravljati, nadgrajevati, obnavljati in ponovno uporabiti, šele v skrajni fazi reciklirati. Zato je bistven gradnik prehoda v nizkoogljično gospodarstvo integracija eko dizajna v iskanje rešitev pri izdelkih, storitvah ali poslovnih modelih. Narava sama je krožni sistem, v katerem vse kroži, ni izgub in odpadkov. Pri uveljavitvi krožnega gospodarstva pa se morajo upošte- vali tudi pozitivni vplivi ponora CO2 v fazi nastajanja materiala. Pri tem je učinkovit pred- vsem kaskadni način uporabe lesa, s katerim lahko dosežemo celo negativen ogljični odtis. Prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo pomeni priložnost za razvoj gospodarstva, saj prinaša konkretne finančne koristi podjetjem in gospodarstvu, spodbuja inovacije in znižuje negativen okoljski vpliv v dobaviteljski verigi. Odpravljanje odpadkov iz industrijskih verig preko ponovne uporabe materialov ustvarja prihranke v proizvodnji in manjšo odvisnost od primarnih, predvsem kritičnih surovin. Posebno pozornost je treba posvetiti tudi komunal- nim odpadkom in izboljšati podporno okolje z infrastrukturo ter povečati samozadostnost države za ustrezno ravnanje s temi odpadki v skladu s hierarhijo ravnanja z odpadki. 36 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Slika 3: Shematski prikaz krožnega gospodarstva Vir: Jawahir st al. (2006) Prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo torej terja boljše ravnanje z viri in se mora najprej osredotočiti na preprečevanje nastajanja odpadkov že od zasnove proizvodov (»cir- cular and digital by design«) do izboljšanega zbiranja za povečanje/ohranitev čistosti tokov za njihovo izboljšano predelavo oziroma reciklažo. Pri tem je treba upoštevati cel življenjski cikel proizvoda skozi celotno verigo vrednosti. Z uvajanjem načel nizkoogljičnega krožnega gospodarstva bomo izboljšali energijsko in snovno samozadostnost in zmanjšali odvisnost od tujih trgov. Pomembna bo infrastruktura za oskrbo z energijo, predvsem električno, tako za obdelavo odpadkov kot tudi za boljšo oskrbo s surovinskimi in energetskimi viri iz odpadnih tokov. Za prehod v krožno gospo- darstvo je ključna tudi optimizacija z digitalizacijo in umetno inteligenco ter postopna ele- ktrifikacija različnih postopkov, od elektrifikacije toplote in tehnoloških postopkov do pro- izvodnje vodika kot tudi zajema in shrambe ogljika, pri čemer je treba hkrati s tehnološkim razvojem prilagajati tudi zakonodajni okvir. Vse naštete tehnologije prihodnosti temeljijo na nizkoogljičnih in obnovljivih virih energije. Pomemben del krožnega gospodarstva predstavlja t. i. biogospodarstvo, ki se v svetu krepi. Glede na definicijo Evropske komisije biogospodarstvo zajema vse sektorje in sisteme, ki temeljijo na pridobivanju in predelavi bioloških virov (genski viri, živali, rastline, mikro- organizmi in pridobljena biomasa, vključno z organskimi odpadki), njihovih funkcijah in načelih. Biogospodarstvo poleg primarne proizvodnje vključuje tudi vsa industrijska področja, katerih viri in postopki proizvodnje hrane, krme, zdravil in drugih proizvodov, energije in storitev temeljijo na naravnih virih biološkega izvora. V tem oziru je ključno izboljšanje dostopnosti ter trajnostna raba biomase kot primarnega, naravnega, obnovljivega surovinskega vira, ki vse bolj pogojuje mednarodno konkurenčnost velikega dela predelo- SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 37 valnih dejavnosti. Tako postaja trend prihodnosti npr. na področju plastičnopredelovalne industrije bioosnovana plastika, ki jo pridobivajo iz biopolimerov, te sestavine pa so produkt biorafinerij. V okviru tega je treba omeniti tudi pomen bioosnovane kemične in farmacevt- ske industrije. V skladu s pobudami na evropski ravni tudi Slovenija pripravlja načrt prehoda v krožno gospodarstvo. Gre za t. i. Celoviti strateški projekt razogljičenja preko prehoda v krožno gospodarstvo, ki je eden izmed ključnih nacionalnih projektov, ki bo prinesel pozitivne učinke na konkurenčnost gospodarstva, okolje, zaposlovanje in druge družbene vidike ter s tem višjo kakovost življenja. Projekt je sistemske narave in je usmerjen na vsa področja, ki so ključnega pomena za prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo. Projekt se pripravlja v partnerstvu z vodilnimi evropskimi institucijami na tem področju30. Tako bomo lahko v Slovenijo prenesli najbolj aktualno evropsko znanje za prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospo- darstvo, ga povezali z domačim znanjem in nadgradili. Projekt med drugim zajema podporo ustanavljanju zagonskih podjetij, ki bodo delovala na področju nizkoogljičnih krožnih rešitev in podporo procesu inoviranja ter prehoda MSP v nizkoogljične krožne poslovne modele. Hkrati bodo vzpostavljeni sistemski pogoji za dvig usposobljenosti v različnih skupinah deležnikov (osnovne in srednje šole, visokošolske in- stitucije, podjetja, javna uprava) za oblikovanje in izvajanje ustreznih rešitev, potrebnih za prehod v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo. Tudi v tem kontekstu je dvig kompetenc in potreba po prekvalifikaciji in izkoriščanju priložnosti za ustvarjanje novih, zelenih delov- nih mest ključnega pomena. V okviru projekta je predvidena tudi podpora razogljičenju v ključnih verigah vrednosti: predelovalni industriji, gozdno-lesni verigi, prehranski verigi, grajenem okolju in mobilnosti. Prehod v nizkoogljično gospodarstvo in Evropski zeleni dogovor bosta od nekaterih panog zahtevala večje prilagoditve. Kemikalije imajo temeljno vlogo v večini industrijskih panog in bodo postale gradniki nizkoogljičnih, učinkovitih tehnologij, materialov in izdelkov. Nova evropska strategija na področju kemikalij za trajnostnost bo vzpodbudila inovacije in prila- goditve kemične industrije (vključno z gumarsko, plastičarsko in farmacevtsko industrijo), pa tudi vseh njenih odjemalcev vzdolž distribucijske verige. Za uspešen zeleni prehod bo ključnega pomena povečanje naložb in inovativnih zmogljivosti kemične industrije v za- gotavljanje varnih in trajnostnih kemikalij, zmanjševanje onesnaževanja in obremenitev za zdravje in okolje ter doseganje strateške samostojnosti in samozadostnosti EU pri oskrbi z osnovnimi kemikalijami. Za prehod v nizkoogljično družbo in krožno gospodarstvo mora država spodbuditi investi- cije v potrebna osnovna sredstva, hkrati pa mora vzpostavljati ustrezno zakonodajo in ostale potrebne pogoje. 30 S skupnostmi znanja in inovacij (KIC - Knowledge and Innovation Community) v okviru EIT (Evropskega inštituta za inovacije in tehnologijo) ter Skupnim raziskovalnim središčem (JRC) Evropske komisije. 38 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030

4.2 — Razogljičenje energetsko intenzivne industrije

4.2. Razogljičenje energetsko intenzivne industrije Pomemben del slovenske industrije predstavlja energetsko intenzivna industrija - EII (ko- vinska, nekovinska, kemična in papirna). EII letno porabijo slabo šestino vse končne pora- bljene energije v Sloveniji. Te dejavnosti zaposlujejo okoli 27.500 oseb in ustvarijo 2,5 % BDP. Pomembne so tudi z izvoznega vidika, saj pretežni del svojih izdelkov izvozijo. Veliko večino energije v industriji porabi sorazmerno malo število podjetij. V letu 2016 je zgolj 20 podjetij porabilo polovico vse energije v industriji. Industrija je v letih 2005-2016 znižala neposredne emisije toplogrednih plinov za več kot 35 %, procesne emisije pa za več kot 20 %. Ne glede na to pa visok delež EII v strukturi slovenskega gospodarstva zaradi večje izpostavljenosti spremembam, ki bodo izhajale iz podnebno-energetskih politik, pomeni tudi primerjalno večjo ranljivost Slovenije. Zato je nujno pravočasno in učinkovito posodabljanje in prestruk- turiranje slovenskega gospodarstva in podjetij v EII. Energetsko intenzivna industrija v Sloveniji je sicer v primerjavi z napravami v EU energet- sko zelo učinkovita in večinoma uporablja najboljše tehnologije, ki so na voljo (BAT). S tega vidika je za večji preskok v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo zelo odvisen od razvoja novih prebojnih tehnologij, ki jih na trgu še ni ali so šele na začetku razvoja na področju elektri- fikacije toplote in proizvodnih postopkov. Določene že razvite tehnologije, od proizvodnje in uporabe vodika do zajema in uporabe ter zajema in skladiščenja ogljika, pa še čakajo na cenovno sprejemljivo, ustrezno integracijo v proizvodne procese energetsko intenzivne in- dustrije. Potrebno se je izogniti zapiranju najučinkovitejših podjetij, saj bi se s tem emisije na glo- balni ravni povečale, ker bi uvažali izdelke iz manj učinkovitih naprav iz drugih delov sveta (carbon leakage – odliv ogljika). Industrijo je potrebno še bolj spodbuditi tako k nadaljnje- mu zmanjševanju energetske intenzivnosti in upravljanju z energijo kot tudi zmanjševanju procesnih emisij z optimizacijo, digitalizacijo in uporabo umetne inteligence. Ta industrija potrebuje zanesljivo dobavo čiste energije in oskrbo s surovinami, kar pogojujeta ustrezna in- frastruktura tako za oskrbo z energijo in za ravnanje z odpadki. Po oceni Evropske komisije bo ne glede na že izvedene in pričakovane ukrepe v zmanjšanje porabe elektrike v EII poraba elektrike v energetsko intenzivni industriji v EU narasla z 2,98 na 4,43 TWh. V tem oziru je potrebno nasloviti tudi vprašanje ranljivosti EII z vidika cenovne dostopnosti energije. V pri- hodnosti bo namreč industrija soočena z bolj zahtevnimi razmerami na trgu z energijo kot posledico pričakovanih gibanj na mednarodnih trgih in hkrati potrebnih vlaganj v obnovo proizvodnih in prenosnih oziroma distribucijskih zmogljivosti v Sloveniji. Pomen EII prepoznava tudi Evropski zeleni dogovor, kjer je zapisano, da je energetsko inten- zivna industrija nepogrešljivi del gospodarstva, saj zagotavlja surovine za druge vrednostne verige, ki so pomembne za gospodarstvo EU. Pomemben vidik v tem oziru je tudi dostop do surovin (predvsem kritičnih surovin, ki jih bo treba bolje izločevati iz obstoječih odpadnih tokov). Za tehnološki preboj in posodobitve energetsko intenzivne industrije je treba izkori- stiti vse možnosti, ki so na voljo na ravni EU (npr. Inovacijski sklad, Obzorje) ter na domači ravni preko mehanizma za okrevanje in odpornost ter za pravični prehod. Preko ukrepov bomo spodbujali raziskave, razvoj in inovacije ter prenos naprednih tehnologij, naložbe v uvajanje tehnologije in infrastrukture za cenovno dostopno čisto energijo, energetsko učin- kovitost in zamenjavo energentov, povečanje snovne učinkovitosti in spodbujanje uvedbe SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 39 krožnih rešitev v industriji osnovnih materialov (uporaba sekundarnih surovin, nadome- ščanje ogljično oziroma energetsko intenzivnih surovin in materialov s snovmi z nižjim od- tisom). Prav tako bomo okrepili mednarodno sodelovanje za razvoj prebojnih tehnologij in uvajali možnosti optimizacije proizvodnje z avtomatizacijo, digitalizacijo, kvantnimi tehno- logijami in umetno inteligenco. Obstoječa proizvodnja se je že občutno racionalizirala predvsem z vidika zmanjšanja po- rabe energije na enoto in povečanja snovne produktivnosti. V skladu s širšimi evropskimi napovedmi se v prihodnjih letih pričakuje preboj in večjo cenovno dostopnost novih niz- koogljičnih tehnologij, ki bodo temeljito preoblikovale proizvodnjo v energetsko intenzivni industriji. Te tehnologije so predvsem: • uporaba podnebno nevtralnega vodika (toplota in/ali procesi), • uporaba biomase in biotehnologij, • nadaljnja elektrifikacija toplote, • nadaljnja elektrifikacija procesov (elektroliza, elektrokemija), • zajemanje in uporaba ogljika (CCU – Carbon Capture and Utilisation), • zajemanje in shranjevanje ogljika (CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage). Zato bo treba pospeševati tako razvojno-inovacijske aktivnosti kot tudi pilotno-demonstra- cijske aktivnosti (npr. proizvodnja sintetičnega metana in vodika) in investicijske spodbude za ta namen. Prav tako je ključno povezovanje industrije v lokalne energetske skupnosti s pomočjo digitalizacije in implementacije pametnih platform, izkoriščanja odpadne toplo- te ter večanja samooskrbe iz obnovljivih virov energije. Izboljšanje energetske učinkovitosti je nujno, tudi s spodbujanjem uvajanja energetskega managementa v podjetjih, npr. preko uvedbe sistemov, skladnih z ISO 50001 (oz. ustreznih alternativ) tako v energetsko inten- zivnih podjetjih kot tudi v energetsko manj intenzivnih podjetjih (v tistih, ki imajo strošek energentov na tretjem ali nižjem mestu na stroškovni lestvici). Hkrati je potrebno podjetja spodbuditi k izvedbi naložb, ki so identificirane v okviru energetskih pregledov. 40 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030

4.3 — Trajnostna mobilnost

4.3. Trajnostna mobilnost Mobilnost bo tudi v prihodnosti temelj družbe in ekonomije, hkrati pa lahko, ob nadalje- vanju obstoječega trenda, prav emisije toplogrednih plinov iz prometa ogrozijo doseganje podnebnih ciljev. Sektor prometa v Sloveniji predstavlja daleč največji vir emisij TGP in sicer kar 52,9 % v letu 2018. Delež sektorja je bil še leta 2005 samo 38-odstoten. Večina emisij je iz cestnega prometa. Promet je tudi edini sektor, v katerem so se emisije v obdobju 2005−2018 povečale, in sicer za 31,9 % (vir: Podnebno ogledalo 2020). Zeleno in digitalno bosta ključni področji razvoja mobilnosti v prihodnjem desetletju, če bomo želeli emisije iz sektorja pro- meta obvladati. Na področju infrastrukture se poudarjata čisti promet in logistika, vključno z namestitvijo polnilnih postaj za električna vozila, spodbudami za železniški promet ter čisto mobilnost v mestih in regijah. Treba je torej spodbujati trajnostne oblike mobilnosti in temu prilagoditi tudi izgradnjo prometne infrastrukture, ki bo preferenčno spodbujala odmik od cestnega prevoza bodisi potnikov bodisi tovora. Področje se tesno povezuje s t. i. pametnimi mesti in skupnostmi, kar je podrobneje razdelano v Slovenski strategiji pametne specializacije (S4). Na področju industrije pa je treba poudariti, da slovenska avtomobilska industrija predsta- vlja v celoti okvirno 10 % slovenskega bruto dodanega proizvoda in okvirno 20 % slovenske- ga izvoza. Na tem področju posluje okoli 285 podjetij, ki zaposlujejo 16.000 ljudi. Slovenski izvozniki, dobavitelji avtomobilski industriji, dosegajo vse mednarodne standarde in so kom- petentni dobavitelji na globalnem trgu s ključnimi kupci v Nemčiji, kamor slovenska avto- mobilska industrija izvozi 40 % svoje proizvodnje, sledijo Francija, Italija, Avstrija, Velika Britanija in Združene države Amerike. Dejstvo je, da je pandemija COVID-19 močno prizadela avtomobilsko industrijo. Slovenija ima močne razvojne dobavitelje z ogromno akumuliranega znanja in razvojnimi potenciali, a so razmere težke, tudi zaradi prekinitve dobavnih verig. Tudi za avtomobilsko industrijo ve- lja, da se bo morala še naprej posodabljati v smeri zelenega in digitalnega prehoda. Predvsem pa bo morala slediti tržnim trendom, ki gredo v smeri elektrifikacije vozil in spremembe po- slovnih modelov (npr. »car-sharing«). Glede na akumulirano znanje in potenciale pa lahko priložnosti in razvojne projekte poišče tudi izven panoge.

4.4 — Industrija, temelječa na lesu in ostalih naravnih

4.4. Industrija, temelječa na lesu in ostalih naravnih obnovljivih materialih Slovenija bo na svoji poti do osnovnega cilja iz Evropskega zelenega dogovora (do 2050 pre- hod v čisto družbo brez neto emisij toplogrednih plinov) izkoristila razvojni potencial, ki ga omogočajo domači naravni obnovljivi materiali, ki zagotavljajo nemoteno preskrbo s su- rovino, kratke dobavne poti in imajo pozitiven vpliv na blaženje podnebnih sprememb. Z večanjem zavedanja o pomenu ohranjanja okolja se iščejo alternative fosilnim virom, katerih uporaba ima velike, dolgoročno negativne posledice na naš življenjski prostor. Eden izmed SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 41 načinov je zagotovo v večji uporabi izdelkov, narejenih iz naravnih obnovljivih materialov, ki predstavljajo ponor CO2. Les je ključna strateška surovina oz. industrijski material v Sloveniji, ki je naravni in obnovlji- vi vir. V Sloveniji je letni prirast cca 9 mio m³ lesa, medtem ko je letni posek cca 6 mio m³31, od česar se ga doma predela le 1,82 mio m³ okroglega lesa (podatek za leto 2019); v tujino se ga skupaj s sekanci in lesnimi ostanki izvozi 2,87 mio m³ (podatek za leto 2019, vir: SURS, Zavod za gozdove Slovenije32), nato pa uvaža polizdelke oziroma izdelke iz lesa; ostalo pa se porabi za energetske namene. Les je z vidika CO2, ki se ga ustvari iz 1m3 nekega materiala, v primerjavi z drugimi surovinami v bistveni prednosti. Medtem ko se pri pridelavi ostalih materialov spušča CO2 v okolje (količina je odvisna od vrste materiala), se pri prirastu lesa ta skladišči in predstavlja do njegovega uničenja (kurjenje – gnitje) negativno vrednost ustvar- jenega CO2 za okolje. Študija »Climate effect of the forest-based sector in the European Uni- on« iz leta 2020 ugotavlja, da evropski gozdovi in sektorji, ki temeljijo na lesu, skupno znižu- jejo bilanco v EU ustvarjenega CO2 za kar 20 %. Pri gospodarjenju z gozdovi je treba dovolj pozornosti posvetiti tudi t. i. na naravi temelječim rešitvam (v angl. Nature based solutions). Študija »The solution is in nature« iz leta 2021 pri tem izpostavlja velik pomen gospodarjenja z gozdovi na način, ki pozitivno vpliva na varstvo biotske raznovrstnosti. Les je material z vsaj dvema ali tremi uporabnostnimi cikli; gre za t. i. kaskadno rabo lesa: najprej ga uporabimo kot produkt (žagan les, gradbene komponente, pohištvo), drugič kot material v reciklirnem procesu (plošče ali papir) in slednjič za pridobivanje energije, kar prikazuje tudi spodnja slika. Les torej primarno prepoznavamo kot material za industrijsko predelavo in ne kot energent. Kot energent se uporablja le les, ki ni primeren za nadaljnjo industrijsko predelavo in odsluženi les. V segmentu rabe naravnih obnovljivih materialov, ki skladiščijo ogljik, se pojavljajo velike možnosti predvsem na področju predelave lesa, ki ga ima Slovenija v zadostnih količinah (58 % ozemlja je poraščenega z gozdovi), kar predstavlja, ob trajnostnem upravljanju z gozdovi in izboljševanju stanja ohranjenosti biotske raznovrstnosti, zadosten potencial za dolgoro- čen razvoj, temelječ na domači surovini. Podnebne spremembe vplivajo na drevesno sesta- vo, zato je nujno prilagajanje lesne industrije na nove razmere. Smiselno je razmisliti tudi o alternativnih surovinah (bioodpadki iz kmetijstva, gozdarstva in komunale). Za prilagajanje na podnebne spremembe je treba tudi pri načrtovanju upravljanja z gozdovi upoštevati na naravi temelječe rešitve, vključno s preprečevanjem vnašanja in širjenja tujerodnih vrst, zlasti invazivnih. Slovenski gozdovi predstavljajo tudi neizmeren bazen genskih virov za raziskave in razvoj v različnih panogah (npr. farmacevtska in prehrambna industrija, biogoriva, indu- strija sinteznih spojin, obvladovanje škodljivcev itd.). 31 Številka velja za povprečni posek med leti 2015-2019, ko so bile velike naravne ujme, dejanski letni posek pa je sicer manjši, okoli 5 milijonov m³ bruto. 32 Izvoz okroglega industrijskega lesa je po prvih neuradnih podatkih v letu 2020 znašal 1,4 mio m3. 42 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Slika 4: Prikaz kaskadne rabe lesa Vir: EPF – European Panel Federation; SGLP – Obvladajmo podnebne spremembe – uporabimo les, 2010. Področje gradnje in opremljanja pametnih lesenih stavb je izjemna tržna priložnost, ki se bo z leti samo še večala. Če bi v EU povečali delež novozgrajenih hiš iz lesa za samo 10 %, bi to na letni ravni prispevalo k 25-odstotnemu znižanju količine CO2. V tem kontekstu je pomembna preusmeritev na leseno gradnjo v okviru javnega naročanja. Naša vizija se prid- ružuje viziji združenj gozdno-lesnega sektorja EU, zapisani v Forest-based Industries 2050 (CEI Bois, 2019), ki predvideva, da bo delež konstrukcijskega lesa s sedanjih 10 % zrasel na 30 %, kar pomeni trikrat več gradnje z lesom, kot je imamo sedaj. Količina lesa v gozdovih pa tako v EU kot v Sloveniji to brez težav omogoča. Večja predelava lesa, posekanega v Slo- veniji, lahko dodatno prispeva k znižanju emisij oz. povečanju ponorov v gozdovih v skladu z Uredbo LULUCF (EU 2018/841). Vizija lesnopredelovalne industrije je zvišati nivo lesene gradnje z razvojnimi dejavnostmi in z izgradnjo demonstracijskih (pilotnih) stavb, v okviru katerih se bodo oblikovali novi poslovni modeli, ki bodo omogočali konkurenčen nastop konzorcijev pri investitorjih doma in na tujih trgih. S tem si bo tudi slovenska lesnopredelovalna industrija zagotovila tržišče za prodajo velikih količin lesa z visoko dodano vrednostjo. Poleg materialne rabe lesa se lahko les uporablja tudi za pridobivanje biospojin (bioderivatov), katerih produkti nadomeščajo sintetične kemikalije. Veliko manjvrednega lesa se v Sloveniji predela tudi v papirnicah, ki trenutno več kot 60 % potrebnega lesa še vedno uvažajo. Manj kvaliteten les ter lesni ostanki tako dosežejo višjo dodano vrednost, kot če se tak les uporabi za energetske namene. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 43 S ciljem večanja predelave lesa doma bo nujna realizacija investicij tako v primarno prede- lavo lesa kot v vse ostale stopnje predelave lesa, kar je neposredno povezano s krepitvijo t. i. mehkega kapitala – to so raziskave, razvoj, inovacije, človeški viri itd. Poleg lesene gradnje, v katero spada tudi leseno stavbno pohištvo, je v Sloveniji še vedno zelo prisotna pohištvena industrija. Ključni poudarek je na novih tehnologijah in poslovnih mo- delih v proizvodnih in razvojnih procesih, pri čemer je potrebno upoštevati načela krožnega in digitalnega razvoja (»creative and digital by design«). Lesnopredelovalna industrija je v Sloveniji pomembna tudi z vidika velikega števila MSP, v okviru katerih je skoraj 1500 samostojnih podjetnikov, za katere je ključno prizadevanje za bolj prijazno poslovno okolje in spodbujanje potrošnje iz obnovljivih virov. Pri tem je treba izpostaviti tudi, da je v Sloveniji več kot 400.000 lastnikov gozdov. Treba je poskrbeti za nji- hovo mobilizacijo in povezovanje za intenziviranje gospodarjenja z gozdom in povečanjem rabe lesa v Sloveniji. Les predstavlja izhodno surovino za številne tehnološko napredne sonaravne materiale in proizvode (kompoziti, modificiran les, izolacijski in polimerni materiali, tkanine, topila, utekočinjen les, karbonska vlakna, zdravila, piroliza – lesni plin itd.). Da bi izkoristili vse priložnosti na tem področju, je treba krepiti izobraževanje in raziskave biomaterialov (npr. na področju arhitekture, gradbeništva in strojništva). Ker so na les vezane še druge panoge, kot so gozdarstvo, celulozna in papirniška industrija, del gradbeništva, kreativne industrije (oblikovanje, arhitektura, raziskovalna umetnost,…), ima razvoj lesnopredelovalne industri- je multiplikativne učinke, kar predstavlja velik potencial, ki ga je potrebno izkoristiti. Osnovni cilji do leta 2030, vezani na izkoriščanje lesa, so povečanje predelanega okroglega lesa v Sloveniji za neenergetsko rabo na 3 mio m3 letno, doseči 30-odstotni delež lesa v vseh novih javnih stavbah, razvoj novih načinov uporabe lesa, povečanje števila zaposlenih v pa- nogah, povezanih z lesom (pri čemer se upošteva povečanje zaposlenih v storitvah, ki so po- vezane s temi panogami, česar ni upoštevanega v splošni analizi, npr. popravila, montaža,…), in povečanje prodajne realizacije v lesni industriji na 2,5 milijarde EUR letno. Uresničitev zelenega preboja in trajnostni razvoj bomo dosegli z oblikovanjem spodbudnega okolja za dejavnosti, ki prispevajo k doseganju ciljev zelene Evrope. Predelave lesa se zato lotevamo sistematično ob upoštevanju potenciala, ki ga v sebi nosijo mikro, majhna in sre- dnja podjetja. 44 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 5. USTVARJALNI RAZVOJ Eden izmed stebrov sodobne družbe so raziskave, razvoj in inovacije (RRI). Vse troje v veliki meri temelji na povezovanju znanj, industrij in organizacij, ki v medsebojnem sodelovanju razvijajo ustvarjalne inovacije. Te vedno pogosteje izhajajo iz problema posameznika, družbe in/ali okolja in tudi ponujajo rešitev za specifičen problem. Drugače kot v preteklosti danes v uspešen in odprt RRI cikel pogosto vstopajo različne organizacije, vse od podjetij različnih velikosti in panog, institucij znanja, nevladnih organizacij (NVO) do kreativnih industrij (KI), ki so vir spodbud za razvoj gospodarstva ter tudi celotne družbe. Sodelovanje podjetij z institucijami znanja, NVO in s KI povečuje tako ustvarjalnost posameznikov kot inovativno- st v podjetjih, omogoča njihov izboljšan nastop na domačih in tujih trgih, s tem pa povečanje prihodkov ter povečanje dodane vrednosti. Tako ustvarjalnost kot inovativnost sta eni izmed ključnih lastnosti in veščin, ki izboljšujeta ekonomske in socialne kazalce v državi, povezovanje in sodelovanje pa predstavljata velik potencial za iskanje rešitev za velike družbene izzive sedanjosti: staranje prebivalcev, okolje, zdravje, hrana in varnost. Mednarodne analize kažejo, da imajo podjetja, ki se v svojih poslovnih procesih povezujejo s KI, večji dobiček in hitrejšo rast. Podjetjem, ki investirajo v dizajn (v primerjavi s podjetji, ki NE investirajo v dizajn): • se prihodek veča 22 % hitreje (Danish Design Centre (The Economic Effects of Design, 2003)), • so za več kot 50 % bolj produktivna (Swedish Industrial Design Foundation, 2008) ter • dosegajo za 200 % višje cene delnic (British Design Council, 2007). Innobarometer, raziskava Evropske komisije iz leta 2016 na temo inovacijskih procesov v MSP kaže, da je v slovenskem gospodarstvu na področju vključevanja, oblikovanja in ustvar- jalnosti v inovacijske procese podjetij še veliko neizkoriščenega potenciala. Raziskava je na vzorcu 501 slovenskega podjetja pokazala, da je delež slovenskih podjetij, za katera je obliko- vanje po njihovem lastnem mnenju osrednjega pomena za njihovo poslovno strategijo, le 5 % (Danska, Avstrija: 21%, Velika Britanija: 17 %). Delež podjetij, ki po lastnih trditvah sploh ne uporabljajo oblikovanja, je v Sloveniji 43 %, povprečje v EU 27 je 37%. Uporaba digitalnih orodij, kot so npr. orodja za industrijsko oblikovanje, razvoj izdelkov, proizvodnih naprav in objektov ter tehnološka orodja (CAD/CAM, 3D tisk) in s temi podro- čji povezane simulacije (materiali, orodja, sestavi,…), močno krepijo učinkovitost ustvarjal- ne in inovacijske dejavnosti. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 45

5.1 — Skrb za ustvarjalno, podjetno in inovativno

5.1. Skrb za ustvarjalno, podjetno in inovativno podporno okolje Podjetniško in inovativno podporno okolje v Sloveniji je zelo pestro in živahno, a na drugi strani razpršeno, slabo pregledno in neusmerjeno. V tem okolju delujejo različni subjekti, ka- terih aktivnosti se mnogokrat podvajajo in ne ustvarjajo želene in pričakovane vrednosti. Za- radi tega Slovenija nujno potrebuje platformno okolje, ki bo ustvarjalo zdrav, spodbuden in povezovalen ekosistem, ki bo temeljil na ustvarjalnosti, podjetnosti in povezovanju. Znotraj takšnega ekosistema je potrebno vzpostaviti skupine, ki bodo izvajale programe na področjih (I) gospodarstva, (II) akademske in znanstveno-raziskovalne sfere, (III) javnega sektorja in (IV) širše družbe. Skupine morajo izvajati strukturirane programe, ki bodo za vsak segment ekosistema temeljili na ključnih področjih in zasledovali specifične cilje ter delovale platfor- mno, povezovalno in komplementarno. S takšnim pristopom bo mogoče strukturirano in učinkovito nasloviti glavne izzive sodobne družbe in države. Platformno organiziran ekosistem potrebuje neodvisnega, korektnega in povezovalnega ko- ordinatorja, ki bo vodil krovni program in povezoval glavne subjekte ter konzorcije, ti pa bodo izvajali specifične programe za dvig inovativnosti in podjetnosti vsak na svojem po- dročju. Tako programi kot izvajalci se morajo medsebojno dopolnjevati, povezovati, informirati in izobraževati. Skrbeti morajo za ustvarjalno, podjetno in inovativno podporno okolje, da bo Slovenija privlačen kraj za razcvet talentov, hitro rastočih in ostalih podjetij, ki bodo ustvar- jala visoko dodano vrednost, nova delovna mesta in hkrati posodabljala gospodarstvo v sme- ri krožnega in digitalnega prehoda. Podjetniško in inovativno podporno okolje mora predstavljati vključujoče okolje, ki sloni na sodelovanju podjetij z dobavitelji, kupci, konkurenco, univerzami, znanstveno-razisko- valnimi organizacijami, inštituti, KI, NVO in drugimi javnimi in zasebnimi organizacijami. Ta mreža pomaga podjetjem premostiti ovire, ki se nanašajo na vire financiranja, človeški kapital, socialni kapital in druge vire, povezane s specifiko določenega podjetja ali trga. V tem okviru je treba izpostaviti subjekte socialne ekonomije, ki jih je treba obravnavati na enak način kot vse ostale subjekte v podpornem okolju, izvajalce posameznih ukrepov pa usposobiti za delo z njimi. Kakovost podpornega okolja je bistvenega pomena za prelivanje znanja, ki generira razvoj. Zato je potrebno graditi na podjetniško-inovacijski infrastrukturi, ki bo omogočala, spodbu- jala ter razširjala sistem odprtih inovacij v podjetja in organizacije vseh oblik, da medsebojno sodelujejo, se povezujejo, izmenjujejo znanje, izkušnje ter izume, licencirajo tuje rešitve ter vseskozi spodbujajo ustanavljanje novih podjetij. Kljub različnim kazalnikom in analizam inovativnosti (npr. European Innovation Scorebo- ard, Global Innovation Index,…) pa te analize ne izkazujejo realnega stanja inovativnosti v slovenskem gospodarstvu, saj zaobjemajo širok nabor kazalcev, ki v veliki meri niso vezani na gospodarstvo. Za dejanski in realen vpogled v stanje inovativnosti v slovenskem gospo- darstvu je potrebno razviti in letno izvajati analizo inovativnosti med slovenskimi podjetji vseh velikosti, ki bo dala vpogled v posamezne dele inovativnosti in stopnje inovacijske kul- 46 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 ture ter s tem omogočala nasloviti bistvene pomanjkljivosti, na katere bo država pozorna, podjetja pa tudi podprla z različnimi finančnimi in nefinančnimi ukrepi. Oblikovali, vzpostavili in krepili bomo celostno in povezano podporno okolje za inovativ- nost, ki bo platformno zgrajeno iz subjektov/konzorcijev, ki bodo izvajali programe inova- tivnosti na ključnih področjih inovacijskega ekosistema: (I) gospodarstvo in njihove repre- zentativne zbornice/združenja, (II) akademska in znanstveno-raziskovalna sfera, (III) javni sektor in (IV) širša družba. Pri tem je ključna vloga tako Javne agencije SPIRIT Slovenija kot deležnikov podpornega okolja na nacionalni ravni. V tem okviru bomo krepili: 1. Mrežo slovenskih poslovnih točk (t. i. SPOT), katerih namen je nudenje brezplačnih podpornih storitev za podjetnike in potencialne podjetnike, med drugim nudenje stori- tev podjetniškega svetovanja, informiranja in podjetniškega usposabljanja ter obogaten nabor storitev s področja internacionalizacije in tujih investicij. SPOT bo prispeval k vsem trem področjem industrijske strategije (zeleni, ustvarjalni in pametni razvoj). 2. Subjekte inovativnega okolja (t. i. SIO) za učinkovite storitve za podjetništvo in inova- cije ter oblikovanje uravnotežene programske podpore za zagon, rast, razvoj in ohranitev podjetij. S tem bomo prispevali k: • povečevanju števila novoustanovljenih podjetij, predvsem tistih, ki dosegajo višjo dodano vrednost v primerjavi s slovenskim povprečjem, SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 47 • povečevanju stopnje preživetja novoustanovljenih podjetij, • premagovanju ovir hitro rastočih podjetij. 3. Podporno okolje na področju ustvarjalnosti, ki bo osnovano na podpori ustvarjalnosti v smislu razvoja kulturno-kreativnih sektorjev (KKS) ter povezovanja KKS s preostalim gospodarstvom. Trenutno je slednje podprto v okviru Centra za kreativnost, Mreže cen- trov raziskovalnih umetnosti in kulture. 4. Podporno okolje za zagonska in scale-up podjetja (t. i. Startup Plus Program): program na enem mestu združuje vso ključno podporo, ki jo potrebujejo inovativna start-up podjetja za hitro globalno rast. Ta poleg finančnih spodbud sklada (subvencije, konvertibilna posojila, lastniško investiranje) zajema intenziven mentorski program ter usposabljanje v več različnih kakovostnih in specializiranih vsebinskih programih. 5. Inovacijska stičišča (t. i. »innovation hubs«): krepili bomo tako digitalna kot tudi osta- la inovacijska stičišča, ki so namenjena inovacijskemu sodelovanju in povezovanju jav- nega in zasebnega sektorja ter so platforma za sodelovanje različnih igralcev in skupin, ki hočejo doseči boljše rezultate inovacij, bistven poudarek pa je na konkretni vsebini. Še posebej je treba okrepiti inovacijsko sodelovanje in povezovanje v kohezijski regiji Vzhodna Slovenija. Sodobna mednarodno primerljiva inovacijska stičišča nudijo tako vsebinsko kot tudi infrastrukturno podporo razvojno-raziskovalnim projektom MSP s ciljem uspešne mednarodne komercializacije znanja in tehnologij. 6. Pisarne za prenos znanja: njihov namen je povezovanje javnih raziskovalnih organiza- cij in gospodarstva. Njihova dejavnost vključuje pripravo, posredovanje in prilagajanje tehnološko in tržno ustrezne ponudbe raziskovalcev iz JRO podjetjem na podlagi iden- tifikacije tehnoloških, raziskovalnih in razvojnih potreb gospodarstva. Pisarne usmerjajo raziskovalce k zadovoljevanju potreb gospodarstva, v podjetjih dvigajo zavest o dostop- nosti raziskovalnih kapacitet in podjetja usmerjajo k uporabi storitev, ki jih raziskovalne organizacije lahko ponudijo. Raziskovalce je potrebno usposobiti z znanji o trgu, kupcih in podjetništvu. V okviru podpornega okolja so pomembna tudi strateška razvojno-inovacijska partnerstva – t. i. SRIP-i, ki pa so izpostavljeni v okviru naslednjega poglavja.

5.2 — Promocija ustvarjalnosti, podjetnosti in inovativnosti

5.2. Promocija ustvarjalnosti, podjetnosti in inovativnosti Za ustvarjanje pozitivne inovacijske mikroklime mora Slovenija nadaljevati s premiki na po- dročju krepitve kulture ustvarjalnosti, podjetništva in inovativnosti. Program spodbujanja mladih k razvoju ustvarjalnosti, podjetnosti in inovativnosti (v nadaljevanju UPI) je prinesel določene rezultate. S tem programom se želi pri mladih razvijati osebnostne lastnosti, ki so pomembne za podjetništvo – od ustvarjalnosti, samoiniciativnosti, sprejemanja tveganj in odgovornosti do samozavesti in javnega nastopanja. Prizadevali si bomo, da se kulturo ustvarjalnega, podjetnega in inovativnega načina razmišljanja in poznavanja intelektualne lastnine vpelje v vse dele izobraževalnega sistema (kroskurikularno) od vrtcev do fakultet ter tudi v podjetja za vzgojo ustreznih kadrov. 48 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Skrbeti je treba za promocijo podjetništva in izvajanje ukrepov za spodbujanje podje- tništva med posebnimi ciljnimi skupinami (npr. mladi, ženske, družinsko podjetništvo). Ključna je tudi promocija in internacionalizacija industrije skozi koherentno delovanje pod- pornih mrež ter organizacijo konferenc, posvetov, seminarjev in delavnic v Sloveniji in v mednarodnem okolju. V Sloveniji že več kot dvajset let uspešno poteka nagrajevanje in promocija najboljših slo- venskih inovacij, ki temelji na regijskem izboru najboljših inovacij in se zaključi z izborom najboljših nacionalnih inovacij. Priznanja za inovativnost ne pomenijo zgolj potrditve za nagrajence in njihovo promocijo doma in po svetu, ampak jih tudi povezujejo med sabo, zato je smiselno projekt nadaljevati, pospeševati in ga nadgraditi z dodatnimi vsebinskimi aktivnostmi.

5.3 — Podpora zagonu, rasti, razvoju in ohranitvi podjetij

5.3. Podpora zagonu, rasti, razvoju in ohranitvi podjetij V tem okviru je potrebno spodbujanje ustanovitve in zagona nastajajočih inovativnih pod- jetij, podjetij v fazi hitre rasti (scale-up), razvoj ostalih podjetij in uspešen prenos idej pod- jetnih posameznikov in skupin v tržno uspešne podjeme, ki imajo pozitiven gospodarski in družbeni pomen. Spodbude bodo usmerjene v nišne trge in bodo podpirale zeleni in digi- talni prehod. Prav tako je ključnega pomena, da imajo podjetja, zlasti MSP, v obeh kohezijskih regijah dostop do ugodnih virov financiranja, saj je to ena najtežje premostljivih ovir za vsa pod- jetja. V tem oziru je potrebno krepiti dolžniške in lastniške vire financiranja. Prav tako so z vidika rasti, razvoja in ohranitve podjetij pomembne spodbude tako malih vrednosti (npr. t. i. vavčerji), preko katerih imajo podjetja dostop do storitev s področja digitalizacije, varstva intelektualne lastnine, certifikatov, usposabljanja in zunanjih storitev na drugih pomembnih področjih, kot tudi velikih razvojno- inovacijskih projektov, ki so strateškega pomena za dr- žavo. Pomembno je podpirati raziskave in razvoj ter investicije preko davčnih olajšav; podjetja je treba aktivno motivirati k vlaganju v nove produkte, ki morajo biti svetovno konkurenčni. Dodatno je potrebno vzpodbujanje prijave patentov in zaščite znamk ter podpora uvajanja konkretnih novih tehnologij, ki spodbujajo ustvarjalnost in s tem konkurenčnost (npr. ume- tna inteligenca, VR). Eden od pomembnih stebrov prenosa znanja in tehnologij, ki prispeva h gospodarski rasti, so tudi odcepljena podjetja (spin-out in spin-off podjetja) javnih raziskovalnih organizacij. Ta podjetja kreirajo nova delovna mesta in imajo velik potencial, da postanejo inovativna in hitro rastoča, zato je potrebno tudi v Sloveniji vzpostaviti evropsko primerljivo normativno okolje za ustanavljanje takih podjetij. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 49

5.4 — Krepitev netehnoloških inovacij

5.4. Krepitev netehnoloških inovacij Spoprijemanje podjetij, zlasti MSP, z izzivi zelenega in digitalnega prehoda gospodarstva terja širše razumevanje pojma inovacije, ki se ne more omejevati le na tehnologijo, ampak vključuje vse vrste inovacij, od najpogosteje prisotnih produktnih in procesnih do marketin- ških, organizacijskih in družbenih. Obstoječa mala podjetja niso nujno inovativni startupi v klasičnem smislu. V takšnih podjetjih je treba z ukrepi spodbujati tudi inovativne poslovno- -upravljavske rešitve ter ustvarjalnost v najširšem smislu. Netehnološke inovacije, ki temeljijo na inoviranju procesov, storitev in predvsem poslovnih modelov, so pogosto tiste, ki ustvarjajo razliko med posameznimi proizvodi in ustvarjajo do- dano vrednost. Dejstvo je, da inovacije mnogokrat ne izhajajo iz raziskav in razvoja, temveč temeljijo na problemu uporabnika ter uporabi obstoječih tehnologij, produktov. Inovacija je lahko nov poslovni model, ki na primer izhaja iz upoštevanja uporabniških izkušenj, upora- be digitalnih tehnologij (npr. platforma za souporabo) ali vključevanja storitev (poprodajne storitve, popravila ipd.). Ključne so tudi t. i. »družbene inovacije«, pri čemer gre za nove ideje (produkte, storitve, modele), ki hkrati učinkovito odgovarjajo na potrebe družbe in ustvarjajo nove družbene odnose in sodelovanja. Gre za inovacije, ki poleg splošnih koristi za družbo povečujejo tudi zmogljivost družbe za ukrepanje. Ključna razlika med inovacijo in družbeno inovacijo je torej ta, da družbena inovacija poleg ekonomske vrednosti naslavlja tudi potrebe in izzive družbe ter ustvarja družbeni učinek. V tem oziru je treba krepiti tudi socialno ekonomijo, ki ima ključno vlogo pri ustvarjanju delovnih mest in socialni vključenosti. Ključno je povezovanje s KKS, predvsem z oblikovanjem, arhitekturo in dizajn managemen- tom ter drugimi procesi, ki vzpodbujajo razvoj netehnoloških inovacij. Dizajn management je primer instrumenta krepitve ustvarjalnosti in izboljšanja konkurenčnosti v podjetjih, ki se je izkazal za izjemno uspešnega. V Sloveniji smo to podprli preko dveh kompetenčnih centrov za dizajn management - KCDM (v obdobjih 2013-2015 ter 2017-2019). V 2,5 leta trajajočem projektu KCDM 2.0 (2017-2019) je bilo v usposabljanja vključenih 37 podjetij in njihovih skupno 1.433 zaposlenih. Rezultati po koncu projekta so izjemno dobri. S pomočjo izboljšav poslovnih procesov in produktov se je rast dobička v podjetjih v projektu povečala v povprečju za 104 %, dodana vrednost na zaposlenega pa v povprečju za 12 %. 50 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 6. PAMETNI RAZVOJ Pametna industrija, ki jo lahko imenujemo tudi Industrija 4.0, je postala trend, ki je strate- ška prioriteta v mnogih industrijskih podjetjih. Pri tem podjetja združujejo napredno po- vezljivost, avtomatizacijo, tehnologije oblakov, senzoriko, različne proizvodne procese, inte- ligentne algoritme, IoT (internet stvari) in umetno inteligenco. Bistvo je popoln nadzor nad celotnim poslovnim procesom preko digitalne platforme. Pri tem gre lahko za proizvodnjo, logistiko, upravljanje z viri, sledenje materialom in podobno. Prav tako kot tehnologija pa so pomembni tudi poslovni procesi, ki se z uvedbo digitalizacije spremenijo. Enako velja za verige vrednosti. Za pametno industrijo, ki jo je potrebno čim hitreje prilagoditi enotnemu digitalnemu trgu EU, je pomembna krepitev digitalizacije poslovanja, storitev, produktov in poslovnih mode- lov, pospešeno vlaganje v raziskave, razvoj in inovacije, mreženje in povezovanje različnih akterjev, krepitev kompetenc ter nenazadnje pospeševanje mednarodnega povezovanja pod- jetij. Ključno na teh področjih ostaja razumevanje trga, produkta in problema uporabnika, ki ga z naprednimi tehnološkimi rešitvami rešujemo. Izzive družbe je namreč potrebno reševati s sodobnimi tehnologijami in razviti produkte, ki bodo pomagali družbi in bodo posledično uspešni na trgu. Treba je vzpodbuditi podjetja, da si kreirajo lastne digitalne strategije, ki dopolnjujejo poslovne strategije in jih implementirajo. Pospešena avtomatizacija s sabo prinaša tudi manjšo potrebo po tradicionalnih delovnih mestih. S tega vidika je treba nasloviti tudi prekvalifikacijo delavcev, ustvarjanje kompetenc za poklice prihodnosti, morebitne prilagojene oblike dela in delovnika (skrajšan delovni čas, delo od doma, souporaba,…), ter spremembe, ki izhajajo iz krožnih poslovnih modelov (po- večanje storitev »reuse«, »remanufacturing«,...). Digitalizacija mora podpirati tudi zeleni in ustvarjalni prehod. Odpornost digitalizirane industrije na kibernetske grožnje in napade je ključna za njeno dolgo- ročno uspešnost in preživetje. Zato je v pametni industriji potrebno zagotavljati visok nivo kiber- netske varnosti, tako z ustreznimi sistemi kot tudi postopki in izobraževanjem ter osveščanjem. Evropska komisija je januarja 2021 izdala poročilo z naslovom »Industry 5.0: Towards a sustainable, human-centric and resilient European industry«33, ki se posebej osredotoča na industrijskega delavca kot človeka. Industrija 5.0 dopolnjuje obstoječo paradigmo Indu- strije 4.0 s poudarjanjem raziskav in inovacij kot gonila za prehod na trajnostno, osredotoče- no na človeka/posameznika in odporno evropsko industrijo. Industrija 5.0 poskuša zajeti vrednost novih tehnologij za dosego blaginje, ki presega cilje delovnih mest in rasti, hkrati pa spoštuje planetarne meje in v središče proizvodnega procesa 33 https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/industry-50_sl. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 51 postavlja blaginjo industrijskega delavca. Namen je, da se upošteva današnje pereče socialne omejitve in nikogar ne pusti zadaj. To predpostavlja vrsto ustreznih ukrepov tako za spošto- vanje človekovih pravic, kakor tudi zagotavljanja varnega digitalnega delovnega okolja. In- dustrijski delavec dobiva novo vlogo - ne sme se ga smatrati za strošek, ampak za investicijo, ki bo omogočila razvoj tako podjetju kot delavcu. Delodajalec mora biti zato zainteresiran za vlaganja v veščine, sposobnosti in tudi dobro počutje zaposlenega. Pomemben predpogoj Industrije 5.0 je, da mora tehnologija služiti ljudem in ne obratno. V kontekstu industrije to pomeni, da se tehnologija uporablja in proizvodnja prilagaja potrebam in raznolikosti industrijskih delavcev, namesto, da se mora delavec prilagajati stalno razvijajoči se tehnolo- giji. Delavec mora biti opolnomočen in njegovo delovno okolje mora biti vključujoče. Zato bi moral biti delavec tesno vključen v sooblikovanje in uvajanje novih tehnologij, vključno robotike in umetne inteligence. Roboti naj bi za večjo varnost delovnega mesta prevzemali veliko število ponavljajočih se in enostavnih opravil.

6.1 — Krepitev digitalizacije in pametnih rešitev

6.1. Krepitev digitalizacije in pametnih rešitev Posodabljanje gospodarstva mora iti v smeri uporabe najbolj sodobnih tehnologij, najvišje procesne varnosti, zvišanja stopnje avtomatizacije in robotizacije, uporabe digitalnih tehno- logij ter umetne inteligence, kar posledično prispeva tudi k učinkovitejši rabi virov in energi- je. Uvajanje pametnih tovarn naj bi kar 10-krat povečalo produktivnost, hkrati pa omogočalo personalizacijo produktov, rešitev. Uvajanje digitalnih rešitev mora potekati na več ravneh. Na ravni EU in ravni države se prilagaja zakonodaja, pravila kibernetske varnosti in varstva potrošnikov ob hkratnem uvajanju digitalne tehnologije v poslovanje podjetij na vseh pod- ročjih. Nova zakonodaja pa mora imeti ocenjen vpliv na digitalno. Ti procesi že spreminjajo podobo industrije in način poslovanja. To dokazujejo slovenska podjetja, ki sodelujejo z vo- dilnimi podjetji na svetovnem trgu tudi z uvajanjem pametne avtomatizirane proizvodnje in uporabo umetne inteligence. Pri tem mora biti v skladu z razvijajočim se konceptom Indu- strije 5.0 v ospredju opolnomočeni človek - delavec. Ukrepi na področju digitalizacije omogočajo podjetjem preprost in hiter prodor na tuji trg oziroma razširitev poslovanja na obstoječem tujem trgu, krajši čas določenih operacij, pro- cesov, optimizacijo in učinkovitejše iskanje virov oziroma učinkovitejšo nabavo, nižje stro- ške administracije, povečano preglednost nad poslovnimi procesi ter posledično povečano prodajo na tujih trgih, izboljšanje konkurenčnega položaja, poenostavitev distribucijske poti, razširitev trga in dosega poslovanja ter posledično večje prihodke, izboljšanje interakcij s strankami, natančnejše in lažje dostopne informacije o samem podjetju, dobaviteljih, kup- cih, ciljnih trgih, povečanje hitrosti poslovanja, povečanje tržnega deleža in racionalizacijo poslovnega modela. Za to pa bomo potrebovali tudi močno nacionalno digitalno infrastruk- turo, ki vključuje aktivno povezovanje in sodelovanje različnih akterjev s ciljem postaviti Slovenijo na zemljevid uspešnih in referenčnih držav na področju pametne in zelene indu- strije. Hitre in zanesljive širokopasovne povezave (fiksne in mobilne), tudi na podeželju, so nujne za razvoj ključnih spletnih socialnih in gospodarskih storitev. Uvedba 5G je odvisna od pravočasne dodelitve spektra 5G. 52 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Nasloviti želimo ne samo digitalnega preoblikovanja klasičnih podjetij, ampak želimo nuditi podporo hitrejšemu razvoju digitalnih podjetij. Izboljšanje digitalnih znanj in spretnosti de- lavcev bi lahko razmeroma hitro povečalo njihovo zaposljivost in podprlo gospodarsko okre- vanje po krizi zaradi pandemije COVID-19. Uvedba uporabniku prijaznih storitev e-upra- ve in digitalnih javnih storitev bi pomagala dodatno zmanjšati upravno breme za podjetja. Čeprav so na voljo že številne javne spletne storitve, bodo za njihovo uporabo s strani posa- meznikov in podjetij potrebna prizadevanja za povečanje zaupanja ljudi v spletne transakci- je in njihovo varnost (npr. uvedba nacionalnega elektronskega identifikatorja, zagotavljanje kibernetske varnosti in varovanja zasebnosti). Pametna industrija bo upoštevala tudi Nacionalni program spodbujanja razvoja in uporabe umetne inteligence v RS do leta 2025 (NpUI), ki je usklajen s SRS 2030. NpUI med globalne izzive uvršča tudi industrijsko 4.0 revolucijo tako, da se vzpostavljajo novi modeli gospodar- skega poslovanja ter celotnega družbenega in okoljskega razvoja. Digitalna preobrazba hkrati pomeni tudi preobrazbo industrije v industrijo 4.0, s čimer bo Slovenija lahko konkurirala v evropskem in svetovnem prostoru. V proizvodnem podjetju bo potrebno digitalno transformacijo in digitalizacijo opredeliti na dveh ravneh, na ravni digitalizacije proizvodov, storitev in ustvarjanja digitalnih poslovnih modelov (smart) ter z digitalizacijo procesov in poslovanja. To bo predstavljalo prihranek na vseh ravneh poslova- nja, dvig produktivnosti in konkurenčnosti na globalnem trgu. Pri razvoju je treba upoštevati načela vgrajene kibernetske varnosti. Poleg posodabljanja gospodarstva z digitalizacijo poslovanja in uvajanjem pametnih rešitev v lastno poslovanje pa moramo spodbujati tudi razvoj poslovanja gospodarstva v smeri upora- be novih tehnologij, kot so IoT, umetna inteligenca, digitalne platforme in podobno, za nove digitalizirane storitve, produkte in poslovne modele. Pri tem temeljimo na poznavanju trga, konkurence, lastnih kupcev in uporabnikov in se osredotočamo na sodobno uporabniško iz- kušnjo. Uspešen in hiter razvoj v tej smeri, ki je za konkurenčnost nujen, lahko spodbudimo SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 53 z razvojem lastnih digitalnih kompetenc zaposlenih v podjetju ter s povezovanjem v nova razvojna partnerstva in verige vrednosti z razvojnimi podjetji IKT sektorja in institucijami znanja za razvoj produktov z višjo dodano vrednostjo ali višjo stopnjo integracije. Na ta način bomo lahko povezovali multidisciplinarna znanja za kreiranje sodobnih digitalnih storitev, produktov in poslovnih modelov, kar bo poleg produktivnosti drugi nujni pogoj za kon- kurenčnost gospodarstva, dvig dodane vrednosti in uspešno internacionalizacijo oziroma povečevanje izvoza na zahtevne trge z višanjem deleža visokotehnoloških proizvodov. Na ta način lahko slovenska industrija širi izvozne trge in postaja odpornejša.

6.2 — Spodbujanje razvojno-raziskovalnega in

6.2. Spodbujanje razvojno-raziskovalnega in inovacijskega ciklusa Industrijska strategija skupaj z Raziskovalno in inovacijsko strategijo usmerja ukrepe v spod- bujanje celotnega razvojnega, raziskovalnega in inovacijskega ciklusa od TRL 1-9 s poudar- kom na prioritetnih področjih, ki izhajajo iz Slovenske strategije pametne specializacije (S4), kar se bo sistemsko krmililo preko novega Zakona o znanstveno-raziskovalni in inovacijski dejavnosti. Tako bomo dosegli tudi preusmeritev industrije od prakse dobavljanja kompo- nent v nišno usmerjenega soustvarjalca tehnološko visoko razvitih izdelkov. Pri zasnovi iz- delkov je potrebno upoštevati krožne in digitalne vidike (»circular & digital by design«). Bistveno pri tem je, da se prioritet ne opredeljuje »od zgoraj navzdol«, pač pa na osnovi partnerstva med gospodarstvom, institucijami znanja, državo in drugimi deležniki. Pri tem je bistvenega pomena, da se vzpostavi sistem uporabe raziskovalne opreme, ki obse- ga dopolnitev že vzpostavljene evidence razpoložljive raziskovalne opreme ter vzpostavitev povezave med uporabniki in lastniki opreme. Med vlaganji v raziskave in razvoj bo, poleg podpore zelenemu in digitalnemu prehodu, dan poseben poudarek reševanju drugih družbenih izzivov (npr. pandemij). Za to področje bodo na voljo sredstva, ki izhajajo iz Sklada EU za okrevanje in odpornost in iz programov Obzorja. Spodbujati bi bilo treba uporabo evropskega patenta z enotnim učinkom, ko bo ta sistem začel veljati. Z njegovo uporabo bi še posebej MSP lahko za nižjo ceno varovala svoje izume v tistih državah EU, ki bodo sodelovale v sistemu evropskega patenta z enotnim učinkom.

6.3 — Mreženje in povezovanje

6.3. Mreženje in povezovanje Mreženje in povezovanje, predvsem na področju raziskav, razvoja in inovacij, je ključnega pomena. V povezavi s tem se bo nadaljeval razvoj koncepta strateških razvojno-inovacijskih partnerstev (SRIP-ov), ki na vsakem od prednostnih področij S4 združujejo ključne delež- nike iz gospodarstva, raziskovalne sfere in ostale deležnike. Ti skupaj z državo ne samo so- oblikujejo razvojno politiko, ampak tudi organizirajo celovit razvojno-inovacijski ekosistem 54 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 po posameznih področjih S4. V praksi to pomeni vzpostavljanje različnih organizacijskih mostov (skupnih omizij, kjer različni akterji sodelujejo pri oblikovanju strategij in razvoj- nih programov) ter verig vrednosti tako doma kot z vključevanjem v mednarodne verige in mednarodne razvojno-inovacijske platforme s pripravo zahtevnejših razvojnih projektov, z vzpostavljanjem skupnih nastopov in mednarodno promocijo. Zastaviti je treba ambiciozne cilje za internacionalizacijo znanja in rešitev, kjer bi bila slo- venska podjetja s podpro celotnega ekosistema (država, raziskovalni sektor, nevladni sektor) sposobna ponuditi celovite visokotehnološke rešitve za večja okolja. Pomembne so tudi druge oblike povezovanja in mreženja, na primer grozdi, digitalna inova- cijska stičišča, kompetenčni centri in druge neformalne oblike povezovanja. Digitalna inovacijska stičišča (t. i. »Digital Innovation Hubs«, akronim DIH) in podobni su- bjekti so izjemnega pomena za kreiranje celotnega ekosistema sodelovanja številnih različnih deležnikov in ciljnih skupin. To je prepoznala tudi Evropska komisija, ki v okviru Digitalnega programa Evrope34 temu področju namenja veliko pozornost in tudi finančna sredstva, saj želi vzpostaviti mrežo Evropskih digitalnih inovacijskih stičišč (EDIH). Slovenija je v skladu s smernicami EK to področje opredelila v smernicah Digitalna inovacijska stičišča v Sloveniji po 202035. Ključni namen takšnega sodelovanja med deležniki zasebnega, javnega, razisko- valnega, akademskega in lokalnega okolja je digitalna preobrazba, ki mora doseči prav vsa področja vsakodnevnega življena. Potrebno je krepiti poznavanje naprednih digitalnih teh- nologij, ozavestiti priložnosti in nevarnosti, usposobiti posameznike, kakor tudi omogočiti podjetjem dostop do infrastrukture za testiranje naprednih digitalnih tehnologij (op.: labo- ratorijska oprema oziroma testirno okolje je predrago za MSP-je). Ključna smernica tukaj je, da so takšne storitve blizu uporabnika, kar pa je v Sloveniji, zaradi majhnosti države, pred- nost. Pomembna dodana vrednost EDIH mreže bo tudi mednarodno povezovanje in iskanje novih poslovnih priložnosti, prenos dobrih praks, prenos znanja in iskanje skupnih rešitev.

6.4 — Krepitev in razvoj novih kompetenc, prekvalifikacija,

6.4. Krepitev in razvoj novih kompetenc, prekvalifikacija, nove oblike dela Uresničevanje pametne industrije mora biti usmerjeno v krepitev kompetenc zaposlenih. Pomembno vlogo na tem področju predstavlja platforma za napovedovanje potreb po kom- petencah, ki bo na podlagi spremljanja trendov in potreb trga dela omogočila pravočasna usposabljanja in izobraževanja sodelavcev za prihajajoče nove naloge, ki jih narekuje nene- hen industrijski razvoj. Na podlagi nenehnega spremljanja vrzeli v kompetencah zaposlenih se bodo tako lahko oblikovali ustrezni programi izobraževanja in usposabljanja, ki bodo kre- pili kompetence, potrebne za delo in razvoj na področju zelenega, pametnega, digitalnega in ustvarjalnega. Predvsem pa bo potrebno z ukrepi omogočiti pridobivanje in krepitev interdi- sciplinarnih ter »mehkih« kompetenc. 34 Digital Europe Programme. 35 Smernice Digitalna inovacijska stičišča v Sloveniji po 2020 . SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 55 Z ukrepi za prekvalifikacijo in dokvalifikacijo zaposlenih, ki bodo zaradi digitalizacije in vpe- ljave industrije 4.0 potrebovali nove kompetence, se bo zmanjšalo število brezposelnih oseb na trgu dela. Vendar morajo biti ukrepi celostni in zajeti celotno vertikalo in se začeti že v osnovnih šolah z ustreznimi izobraževalnimi vsebinami in kakovostno karierno orientacijo, s pomočjo katere se bo usposobilo učence, dijake, študente in kasneje odrasle za razvoj in načrtovanje kariere. Ukrepi naj spodbujajo pridobivanje kompetenc s področja pametnega in digitalnega v različnih oblikah (npr. »job shadowing«). Prav tako je zaposlenim potreb- no omogočiti različne oblike opravljanja dela, predvsem glede na trend personalizacije de- lovnega mesta, kjer je to ustrezno. Novi načini in oblike dela zahtevajo višji nivo razvitosti kompetenc, ki omogočajo sodelovanje in učinkovito opravljanje delovnih nalog. Preskok v digitalno je mogoč le, če imajo kadri razvite digitalne kompetence36 ter z njihovo pomočjo učinkovito opravljajo delo. Nadalje morajo ukrepi zajeti ohranjanje obstoječega visoko izobraženega kadra ter privablja- nje istega iz tujine ter omogočati prožno prehajanje kadra iz institucij znanja in izobraževal- nega sistema v gospodarstvo in obratno; s slednjim spodbujamo povezavo znanja in prakse ter interdisciplinarnost. Pravočasno odkrivanje in ohranjanje talentov v gospodarstvu, insti- tucijah znanja in izobraževalnih institucijah, razvoj karier zaposlenih z namenom prekvalifi- kacije in dokvalifikacije, je ključnega pomena za razvoj. Eden najpomembnejših, predvsem pa najuspešnejših instrumentov z vidika pomena mre- ženja podjetij na področju skupnih ter ciljanih vlaganj v znanja, spretnosti in kompetence zaposlenih so kompetenčni centri za razvoj kadrov (v nadaljevanju KOC). KOC-i so bili ob svojem začetku leta 2010 prvi primer uspešnega povezovanja podjetij na področju vlaganj v znanja zaposlenih. S sprejemom S4 leta 2015 so postali osrednji instrument podpore vlaga- njem v znanja in veščine zaposlenih za potrebe pametne specializacije. KOC-i dopolnjujejo delovanje SRIP-ov na področju razvoja človeških virov oz. znanj in spretnosti, s čimer je dosežen celovitejši pristop v trikotniku razvoja človeških virov, spodbujanja inovativnosti in konkurenčnosti ter vlaganj v raziskave in razvoj. KOC-i zagotavljajo poklicno specifična usposabljanja in izobraževanja, ki so prepoznana kot nujna za razvoj in konkurenčnost posamezne panoge oziroma področja delovanja. Po- membna prednost izvajanja KOC-ev je, da podjetja sama oblikujejo vsebine izobraževanja oz. usposabljanja in imajo fleksibilnost pri izbiranju izvajalcev izobraževanj. V programskem obdobju 2014-2020 je pri izvajanju KOC-ev, ki so oblikovani kot mreže podjetij, skupaj sode- lovalo več kot 600 podjetij z zabeleženimi več kot 50.000 vključitvami v usposabljanja (samo v okviru razpisa 2019-2022 je v desetih podprtih KOC-ih vključenih kar 327 podjetij, na- črtovanih pa 22.352 vključitev v najrazličnejša usposabljanja, ki bodo z razvojem ključnih kompetenc okrepila konkurenčnost slovenskih podjetij). Kompetenčni centri bodo tudi v prihodnje namenjeni nadgradnji znanj, veščin in spretnosti zaposlenih, razvoju kompetenč- nih modelov in krepitvi povezovanja podjetij ter izmenjavi dobrih praks na področju razvoja kadrov, s posebnim poudarkom na razvoju znanj na področju pametne specializacije, z na- menom podpore podjetjem pri digitalni preobrazbi in prehodu na industrijo 4.0. 36 Digitalne kompetence so ključnega pomena za izobraževanje, delo in aktivno participacijo v digitalni družbi. EK je v sodelovanju z državami članicami pripravila Okvir digitalnih kompetenc za državljane (trenutna verzija DigComp 2.1. in se redno posodablja), ki vsebuje 21 kompetenc na področjih: informacijska pismenost, komu- nikacija in sodelovanje, izdelava digitalnih vsebin, varnost in reševanje problemov. 56 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030

6.5 — Internacionalizacija

6.5. Internacionalizacija Namen internacionalizacije je spodbuditi večjo odprtost v mednarodno okolje. Hiter napre- dek od podjetij zahteva nenehno prilagajanje, povečevanje učinkovitosti, zniževanje stroškov in iskanje novih priložnosti na domačem ter tujih trgih. Tako postaja internacionalizacija poslovanja tudi za večino MSP-jev nujna za preživetje. V ta namen se pripravlja Program spodbujanja investicij in internacionalizacije slovenskega gospodarstva. Program v središče postavlja tri strateška področja: trajnost, inovativnost in digitalizacijo. Z ukrepi bomo skušali omiliti posledice pandemije COVID-19 in delovali v smeri dinamične, odporne in konku- renčne Slovenije. Glavni cilji programa so diverzifikacija izvoza, povečanje števila izvoznikov (MSP-jev), pozicioniranje v globalnih verigah vrednosti, zmanjšanje zaostanka pri vhodnih tujih neposrednih investicijah za drugimi državami EU, ciljna usmerjenost ter izboljšanje učinkovitosti ekosistema. Pomembna je tudi internacionalizacija na področju raziskav, razvoja in inovacij. Zato je pot- rebno: • pospeševanje vključevanja v evropske in globalne razvojno-raziskovalne in tehnološke projekte, pobude in programe (npr. Obzorje, Eureka, Evropska vesoljska agencija – ESA, Evropska obrambna agencija - EDA, CERN, FAIR, CTA, Life+ programi), • spodbujanje sodelovanja z različnimi evropskimi in mednarodnimi institucijami (npr. European Institute of Technology - EIT/ Knowledge and Innovation Communities - KICs, Biobased industry Joint Undertaking - BBI JU), • krepitev sodelovanja z obstoječimi in novimi mrežami podpornega okolja ter ostalimi deležniki v tujini (npr. mreža European Enterprise Network – EEN, EU DIH network), • identificiranje in spremljanje tehnoloških dosežkov/trendov na evropskem in globalnem trgu ter prenos dobrih praks iz Slovenije in v Slovenijo, ki obsega mednarodne gospodar- ske dogodke, mrežo Innovation Radar, mrežo ekonomskih predstavnikov v tujini, med- narodne mreže s področja KKS in podjetništva, kot so npr. European Creative Business Network (ECBN), Creative Business Network in druge. Z namenom izvoza znanja in storitev na tuje trge ter hitrejše diverzifikacije slovenskega go- spodarstva se bo preučila možnost izvedbe pilotno-demonstracijskih projektov na področju internacionalizacije. V prvi fazi se bo izvedla študija izvedljivosti (ali je posamezen produkt/ storitev primeren za posamezen tuji trg); v kolikor študija izkaže izvedljivost poslovanja, bi se lahko podjetje v drugi fazi vključilo v izbor za izvedbo pilotno-demonstracijskega projekta na posameznem tujem trgu. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 57 7. USMERITVE ZA POVEZAN ZELENI, USTVARJALNI IN PAMETNI RAZVOJ Kot je navedeno v poglavju 2.4, je nabor ukrepov za izvajanje SIS v veliki meri standardiziran. Vendar pa je pri posameznih ukrepih ključno, da so pravilno usmerjeni in da v izvedbenem delu podprejo zeleni, ustvarjalni in pametni razvoj. Primer ukrepa so raziskave, razvoj in ino- vacije, ki so osnovno gonilo razvoja gospodarstva, vendar je pomembno, kam in kako so us- merjene, da bodo podprle želeno smer razvoja. Orodje ekonomske politike za doseganje ciljev pa so tako materialne kot nematerialne spodbude. Ključne so tudi tiste, ki usmerjajo potrošnjo in s tem določajo tržno obnašanje, ki bo temeljilo na odgovornem povpraševanju. Pregled izvajanja usmeritev SIS 2021 - 2030 bo spremljal MGRT kot nosilni resor na dveletni ravni. Usmeritve po posameznih sklopih ukrepov nosilni ocena finanč- resor/ji nih sredstev37 2021-2030 1. Raziskave, razvoj in inovacije (RRI): MGRT, 4 mrd €

1.1 — Povečanje deleža za RRD na 3 % BDP, od tega javni del na 1 %. MIZŠ, (vključno

1.1. Povečanje deleža za RRD na 3 % BDP, od tega javni del na 1 %. MIZŠ, (vključno

1.2 — Ohranitev 100-odstotnih davčnih olajšav DDPO za vlaganja RRI. SVRK z davčnimi

1.2. Ohranitev 100-odstotnih davčnih olajšav DDPO za vlaganja RRI. SVRK z davčnimi

1.3 — Povezovanje celotnega razvojnega cikla od TRL-1 do TRL-9 olajšavami za

1.3. Povezovanje celotnega razvojnega cikla od TRL-1 do TRL-9 olajšavami za - usklajeno zaporedno financiranje projektov od zgodnjih faz RRI in povra- razvoja do uvedbe na trg. tnimi viri)

1.4 — Razvoj in krepitev raziskovalne infrastrukture

1.4. Razvoj in krepitev raziskovalne infrastrukture.

1.5 — Vzpostavitev sistema uporabe raziskovalne opreme, ki obsega

1.5. Vzpostavitev sistema uporabe raziskovalne opreme, ki obsega dopolnitev že vzpostavljene evidence razpoložljive raziskovalne opreme ter vzpostavitev povezave med uporabniki in lastniki opreme; v okviru tega tudi spodbujanje odprtega inoviranja.

1.6 — Pospeševanje prenosa tehnologije in znanja za pospešeno komer

1.6. Pospeševanje prenosa tehnologije in znanja za pospešeno komer- cializacijo rezultatov raziskav in razvoja.

1.7 — Krepitev števila (mladih) raziskovalcev v gospodarstvu in podpo

1.7. Krepitev števila (mladih) raziskovalcev v gospodarstvu in podpo- ra raziskovalcem na začetku kariere.

1.8 — Upoštevanje krožnih in digitalnih vidikov pri zasnovi izdelkov (»cir

1.8. Upoštevanje krožnih in digitalnih vidikov pri zasnovi izdelkov (»cir- cular and digital by design«) – vključenost zahteve v javne razpise.

1.9 — Krepitev RRI na področjih novih in alternativnih ter naravno

1.9. Krepitev RRI na področjih novih in alternativnih ter naravno obnovljivih materialov, izdelkov, storitev in tehnologij z upošte- vanjem sodobnih pristopov (analiza življenjskega cikla - LCA, digitalni dvojčki ipd.).

1.10 — Razvoj najsodobnejših tehnologij in produktov po usmeritvah

1.10. Razvoj najsodobnejših tehnologij in produktov po usmeritvah nove RISS in Slovenske strategije pametne specializacije (pred- nostna vlaganja v nišna področja z največjim potencialom rasti in preboja na mednarodne trge). 37 Ocena finančnih sredstev temelji na potrebah in predvidenih virih iz naslova Večletnega finančnega okvira EU (kohezijska politika 2021-2027), Načrta za okrevanje in odpornost, Sklada za podnebne spremembe in proračuna RS. 58 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Usmeritve po posameznih sklopih ukrepov nosilni ocena finanč- resor/ji nih sredstev37 2021-2030 2. Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti MGRT, 250 mio €

2.1 — Podpora pilotno-demonstracijskih projektov (npr. za proizvodnjo MIZŠ,

2.1. Podpora pilotno-demonstracijskih projektov (npr. za proizvodnjo MIZŠ, sintetičnega metana in vodika) in demonstracijskih centrov, ki MOP, prispevajo k zelenemu, ustvarjalnemu in pametnemu prehodu in MZI, preko katerih bo mogoča promocija rešitev in znanja. MJU

2.2 — Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti na področju internacionali

2.2. Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti na področju internacionali- zacije, katerih namen je izvoz znanja in storitev na tuje trge ter hitrejša diverzifikacija slovenskega gospodarstva.

2.3 — Vzpostavitev pilotnih primerov kaskadne rabe lesa oz. naravno

2.3. Vzpostavitev pilotnih primerov kaskadne rabe lesa oz. naravno obnovljivih materialov za zapiranje snovnih tokov in izboljšanje snovne izrabe odpadkov: povratna logistika, sortiranje, spremlja- nje tokov itd..

2.4 — Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti v energetsko intenzivni indu

2.4. Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti v energetsko intenzivni indu- striji za uvajanje novih nizkoogljičnih tehnologij za izboljšanje energetske in snovne učinkovitosti, ohranjanje konkurenčnosti in preprečitev »odliva ogljika«.

2.5 — Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti za spodbujanje nadomešča

2.5. Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti za spodbujanje nadomešča- nja surovin fosilnega izvora (biorafinerija, ki bi podpirala razvoj bioosnovanih materialov na osnovi biomase). 3. Vključevanje v mednarodne raziskovalno-razvojne in inovacij- MGRT, 30 mio € ske projekte in programe MIZŠ

3.1 — Pospeševanje vključevanja v evropske in globalne raziskovalno

3.1. Pospeševanje vključevanja v evropske in globalne raziskovalno- -razvojne in inovacijske projekte, pobude in programe ter medna- rodne raziskovalne infrastrukture.

3.2 — Spodbujanje sodelovanja z različnimi evropskimi in mednarodni

3.2. Spodbujanje sodelovanja z različnimi evropskimi in mednarodni- mi institucijami ter mrežami podpornega okolja.

3.3 — Identificiranje in spremljanje tehnoloških dosežkov/trendov na

3.3. Identificiranje in spremljanje tehnoloških dosežkov/trendov na evropskem in globalnem trgu ter prenos dobrih praks. 4. Mreženje in sodelovanje na področju raziskav, razvoja in inova- MGRT, 25 mio € cij MIZŠ,

4.1 — Nadgradnja strateških razvojno-inovacijskih partnerstev (SRIP- SVRK,

4.1. Nadgradnja strateških razvojno-inovacijskih partnerstev (SRIP- SVRK, -ov) ter vpeljava novih tehnologij in dobrih praks na različna MJU področja in s tem pospešenega sodelovanja in razvoja deležnikov po posameznih področjih.

4.2 — Pospeševanje drugih oblik sodelovanja poslovnih subjektov z

4.2. Pospeševanje drugih oblik sodelovanja poslovnih subjektov z raziskovalno-razvojnimi institucijami in drugimi deležniki.

4.3 — Vzpostavitev platforme za pospeševanje sodelovanja obstoječih in

4.3. Vzpostavitev platforme za pospeševanje sodelovanja obstoječih in novih deležnikov četverne vijačnice v okviru S4, in sicer s pomoč- jo vzpostavitve oziroma nadgradnje infrastrukturnih, raziskoval- no-razvojnih in vsebinskih pogojev inovacijskega podpornega okolja.

4.4 — Pospeševanje razvojnih partnerstev za krepitev digitalnih produk

4.4. Pospeševanje razvojnih partnerstev za krepitev digitalnih produk- tov, storitev in poslovnih modelov. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 59 Usmeritve po posameznih sklopih ukrepov nosilni ocena finanč- resor/ji nih sredstev37 2021-2030 5. Podporno okolje za podjetja MGRT, 50 mio €

5.1 — Vzpostavitev povezovalnega, vključujočega in komplementar- MJU

5.1. Vzpostavitev povezovalnega, vključujočega in komplementar- MJU nega platformnega ekosistema, ki bo izgrajen iz subjektov ter programov na temeljnih področjih celotne družbe (gospodarstvo, akademska in znanstveno-raziskovalna sfera, javni sektor, lokalne skupnosti in širša družba).

5.2 — Krepitev podpornega okolja za krožno gospodarstvo in digitaliza

5.2. Krepitev podpornega okolja za krožno gospodarstvo in digitaliza- cijo, kar vključuje podporo razvoju digitalne ekonomije z ustvar- janjem novih verig vrednosti, inoviranjem produktov, rešitev in novih poslovnih modelov.

5.3 — Nadaljnji razvoj in nadgradnja storitev podpornih subjektov pred

5.3. Nadaljnji razvoj in nadgradnja storitev podpornih subjektov pred- vsem v smeri zelenega, ustvarjalnega in pametnega razvoja. 6. Promocija podjetništva in inovativnosti MGRT 10 mio €

6.1 — Promocija inovativnosti in podjetniške kulture kot pozitivne vred

6.1. Promocija inovativnosti in podjetniške kulture kot pozitivne vred- note (npr. preko javnih medijev, sodelovanja na dogodkih, poslov- nih srečanjih in sejmih s področja podjetništva, obrti in inovacij, izbora in nagrajevanja najboljših slovenskih inovacij ipd.).

6.2 — Celovita promocija in nagrajevanje ustvarjalnosti, podjetništva in

6.2. Celovita promocija in nagrajevanje ustvarjalnosti, podjetništva in inovativnosti (UPI).

6.3 — Promocija strateških razvojno-inovacijskih partnerstev in pame

6.3. Promocija strateških razvojno-inovacijskih partnerstev in pame- tne specializacije (promocija razvojnih prebojev, ki so rezultat uvajanja pametne specializacije).

6.4 — Promocija podjetništva v posebnih ciljnih skupinah

6.4. Promocija podjetništva v posebnih ciljnih skupinah.

6.5 — Promocija in odpiranje novih tržnih poti na domačem in tujih

6.5. Promocija in odpiranje novih tržnih poti na domačem in tujih trgih.

6.6 — Krepitev znamk, vključno s krepitvijo pozicioniranja Slovenije

6.6. Krepitev znamk, vključno s krepitvijo pozicioniranja Slovenije kot zelene, ustvarjalne in pametne dežele (ambasadorji »green. creative.smart«). 7. Spodbujanje zagonskih podjetij in podjetij s potencialom hitre MGRT 40 mio € rasti

7.1 — Spodbujanje ustanavljanja novih inovativnih podjetij (startupov)

7.1. Spodbujanje ustanavljanja novih inovativnih podjetij (startupov) in podjetij s potencialom hitre rasti ter hitro rastočih (scale-up) podjetij. Poseben poudarek bo dan zagonu »krožnih in digitalnih« podjetij.

7.2 — Spodbujanje povezovanja podjetij z mentorskimi sistemi in po

7.2. Spodbujanje povezovanja podjetij z mentorskimi sistemi in po- slovnimi mentorji.

7.3 — Spodbujanje povezovanja zagonskih podjetij z »zrelimi« podjetji

7.3. Spodbujanje povezovanja zagonskih podjetij z »zrelimi« podjetji. 60 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Usmeritve po posameznih sklopih ukrepov nosilni ocena finanč- resor/ji nih sredstev37 2021-2030 8. Podpora rasti, razvoju in ohranitvi podjetij, predvsem MSP MGRT, 150 mio €

8.1 — Krepitev dolžniških virov financiranja (subvencioniranje obre- MOP, + povratna

8.1. Krepitev dolžniških virov financiranja (subvencioniranje obre- MOP, + povratna stnih mer, mikrokrediti, mikrogarancije, krediti in mezzanine MZI, sredstva krediti, garancije,…). MJU

8.2 — Krepitev lastniških virov financiranja (krepitev in učinkovito

8.2. Krepitev lastniških virov financiranja (krepitev in učinkovito delovanje skladov semenskega in tveganega kapitala) ter razvoj drugih sodobnih oblik financiranja.

8.3 — Uvajanje spodbud malih vrednosti (t. i. vavčerjev) za posebne

8.3. Uvajanje spodbud malih vrednosti (t. i. vavčerjev) za posebne vsebine, ki podpirajo zeleni, ustvarjalni in pametni razvoj.

8.4 — Pospeševanje digitalne in krožne preobrazbe podjetij: spodbujanje

8.4. Pospeševanje digitalne in krožne preobrazbe podjetij: spodbujanje uvajanja sodobnih digitalnih tehnologij v poslovanje podjetij, ustvarjanje novih produktov, storitev in poslovnih modelov ter ustvarjanje razvojnih partnerstev za te namene.

8.5 — Spodbude za krepitev lesno-predelovalne panoge

8.5. Spodbude za krepitev lesno-predelovalne panoge.

8.6 — Izboljšanje energetske učinkovitosti v podjetjih, tudi preko uva

8.6. Izboljšanje energetske učinkovitosti v podjetjih, tudi preko uva- janja energetskega managementa, uvedbe sistema ISO 50001 in drugih pomembnih standardov ter certifikatov na področju okolja in energije. 9. Netehnološke inovacije in poslovni modeli MGRT 60 mio €

9.1 — Podpora netehnološkim inovacijam in inoviranju poslovnih

9.1. Podpora netehnološkim inovacijam in inoviranju poslovnih modelov (procesne in organizacijske inovacije, nove poslovno- -upravljavske rešitve, novi poslovni modeli ter inovativne metode internacionalizacije podjetij na osnovi skupnih vlaganj znanja, tehnologij in kapitala).

9.2 — Razvoj in prenova poslovnih modelov in procesnih izboljšav za

9.2. Razvoj in prenova poslovnih modelov in procesnih izboljšav za pospeševanje prehoda v krožno in digitalno gospodarstvo, tudi z uporabo najsodobnejših tehnologij (optimiziranje poslovnih tokov, optimizacija pretoka materialov in njegove rabe, avtomati- zacija linij, souporaba,…).

9.3 — Podpora dizajn managementu ter povezovanju kulturno-kreativ

9.3. Podpora dizajn managementu ter povezovanju kulturno-kreativ- nih sektorjev in podjetij. 10. Spodbujanje investicij MGRT 300 mio €

10.1 — Spodbujanje strateško pomembnih začetnih investicij domačih in

10.1. Spodbujanje strateško pomembnih začetnih investicij domačih in tujih vlagateljev.

10.2 — Podpora investicijam za uvajanje Industrije 4.0 in nizkoogljičnega

10.2. Podpora investicijam za uvajanje Industrije 4.0 in nizkoogljičnega krožnega gospodarstva.

10.3 — Zeleno javno naročanje pri investicijah

10.3. Zeleno javno naročanje pri investicijah. 11. Internacionalizacija MGRT, 100 mio €

11.1 — Pospeševanje internacionalizacije v skladu s Programom spodbu- MZZ

11.1. Pospeševanje internacionalizacije v skladu s Programom spodbu- MZZ janja investicij in internacionalizacije slovenskega gospodarstva.

11.2 — Omogočanje in povečanje internacionalizacije preko digitalizacije

11.2. Omogočanje in povečanje internacionalizacije preko digitalizacije.

11.3 — Spodbujanje skupnega nastopanja podjetij v verigah vrednosti na

11.3. Spodbujanje skupnega nastopanja podjetij v verigah vrednosti na svetovnem trgu. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 61 Usmeritve po posameznih sklopih ukrepov nosilni ocena finanč- resor/ji nih sredstev37 2021-2030 12. Krepitev kompetenc, usposabljanje, prekvalifikacija, prilagajanje MGRT, 30 mio € demografskim spremembam MDDSZ,

12.1 — Razvoj platform za krepitev kompetenc zaposlenih in vodstvenega MIZŠ

12.1. Razvoj platform za krepitev kompetenc zaposlenih in vodstvenega MIZŠ kadra v vseh vejah industrije in na področju krožne in digitalne transformacije gospodarstva nasploh.

12.2 — Krepitev kompetenc, potrebnih za zeleni, ustvarjalni in pametni

12.2. Krepitev kompetenc, potrebnih za zeleni, ustvarjalni in pametni razvoj, upoštevajoč globalne trende. 13. Infrastruktura MGRT, 300 mio €

13.1 — Razvoj potrebne infrastrukture, ki omogoča razvoj zelene, ustvar- MOP,

13.1. Razvoj potrebne infrastrukture, ki omogoča razvoj zelene, ustvar- MOP, jalne in pametne industrije (sodobne fiksne in mobilne povezave, MZI, npr. 5G, blockchain, razvoj objektov za povečanje snovne in MJU energetske učinkovitosti in rabe, odprte standardizirane podat- kovne platforme, e-identiteta, infrastruktura za e-poslovanje med podjetji…).

13.2 — Povezovanje industrije v lokalne energetske skupnosti in izkori

13.2. Povezovanje industrije v lokalne energetske skupnosti in izkori- ščanje odpadne toplote.

13.3 — Vlaganje v infrastrukturo za povečanje samooskrbnosti glede

13.3. Vlaganje v infrastrukturo za povečanje samooskrbnosti glede ravnanja z odpadki.

13.4 — Podpora energetsko samooskrbnim industrijam

13.4. Podpora energetsko samooskrbnim industrijam. 14. Zakonodaja in poslovno okolje Vsi -

14.1 — Spodbujanje trajnostne proizvodnje in potrošnje; v okviru tega resorji

14.1. Spodbujanje trajnostne proizvodnje in potrošnje; v okviru tega resorji tudi ozaveščanje javnosti o pozitivnih učinkih uporabe naravnih obnovljivih virov.

14.2 — Ustvarjanje spodbudnega gospodarskega okolja (jasna, konsisten

14.2. Ustvarjanje spodbudnega gospodarskega okolja (jasna, konsisten- tna in izvedljiva zakonodaja, hitri postopki za pridobivanje dovo- ljenj, spodbuden fiskalni okvir itd.) za investicije v nizkoogljično krožno gospodarstvo.

14.3 — Ustvarjanje in krepitev trgov za sekundarne surovine in pospeše

14.3. Ustvarjanje in krepitev trgov za sekundarne surovine in pospeše- vanje industrijske simbioze.

14.4 — Zeleno oziroma krožno javno naročanje, v okviru katerega se

14.4. Zeleno oziroma krožno javno naročanje, v okviru katerega se podpira tudi uporaba naravnih/obnovljivih virov (npr. spodbuja- nje lesene gradnje z zelenimi javnimi naročili).

14.5 — Spodbujanje standardizacije (aktivno vključevanje v sooblikovanje

14.5. Spodbujanje standardizacije (aktivno vključevanje v sooblikovanje ter podpora uporabi mednarodnih standardov), uporabe medna- rodnih certifikatov in varstva intelektualne lastnine.

14.6 — Vzpostavitev evropsko primerljivega normativnega okolja za

14.6. Vzpostavitev evropsko primerljivega normativnega okolja za ustanavljanje odcepljenih podjetij. 62 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 PREGLED FINANČNIH SREDSTEV MGRT V LETIH 2020-2022 Predvidena integralna sredstva za leta 2020 - 2022 za izvedbo ukrepov iz naslova MGRT za navedene ukrepe predstavljajo več kot 91 milijonov evrov, ki jih dopolnjujemo z ukrepi iz po- vratnih sredstev. Dodatno k izvajanju posameznih ukrepov prispevajo tudi druga ministrstva (MIZŠ, MOP, MJU, MZI) iz naslova njihovih proračunskih sredstev. Z evropskimi kohezijskimi sredstvi bomo spodbujali predvsem RRI, investicije, podjetništvo in krožno gospodarstvo in v obdobju 2020 – 2022 bo za to namenjenih več kot 265 mio EUR iz OP EKP 2014 - 2020. Zelo pomemben segment spodbud pa so tudi povratna sredstva v oblikah kreditov, garancij in kapitalskih vložkov. V naslednjem finančnem obdobju 2021 – 2027 bomo zagotavljali sredstva za ukrepe iz Skla- da za okrevanje in odpornost v planirani višini 427 milijonov evrov in iz Večletnega finanč- nega okvira (okvirno 450 milijonov evrov) ter Sklada za pravični prehod (okvirno 235 mio EUR). Vsa ta sredstva EU še niso potrjena s strani Evropske komisije, zato končna vrednost sredstev še ni znana. Obstaja tveganje, da vse aktivnosti ne bodo izvedene v obsegu, ki bi zagotavljal doseganje zastavljenih ciljev, v kolikor ne bodo zagotovljene zadostne spodbude s strani države. Večina ukrepov sicer temelji na predvidenih sredstvih iz naslova MGRT, vendar vezano na večletne sklade, načrte in programe EKP. Vsekakor pa v navedena predvidena sredstva niso vključena posamezna oziroma dodatna sredstva drugih deležnikov ekosistema (predvsem zasebnih). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 63 Predvidena finančna sredstva za izvajanje ukrepov (nacionalni proračun - realizacija 2020, sprejeti 2021 in 2022, OP EKP - realizacija 2020, pravice porabe 2021, 2022) FINANČNA FINANČNA FINANČNA VIR SREDSTVA SREDSTVA SREDSTVA 2020 (V €) 2021 (V €) 2022 (V €) Raziskave, razvoj in inovacije (RRI) 20.512.122 21.352.629 15.049.437 EKP Demonstracijski in pilotni projekti 23.969.999 23.369.594 15.221.773 EKP Vključevanje v mednarodne raziskoval- 9.810.346 13.152.217 11.725.663 EKP in no-razvojne in inovacijske projekte in integrala programe Mreženje in sodelovanje na področju 1.947.220 3.922.838 3.453.106 EKP in raziskav, razvoja in inovacij integrala Podporno okolje za podjetja 11.165.308 12.289.594 12.019.780 EKP in integrala Promocija podjetništva in inovativnosti 323.191 270.000 270.000 integrala Spodbujanje zagonskih podjetij in pod- 1.980.559 2.160.000 2.160.000 EKP jetij s potencialom hitre rasti Podpora rasti, razvoju in ohranitvi 28.421.058 26.498.677 4.582.939 EKP podjetij, predvsem MSP Netehnološke inovacije in poslovni 3.638.858 3.081.470 4.066.820 EKP modeli Spodbujanje investicij 7.803.120 12.325.891 15.000.000 integrala Internacionalizacija 14.965.086 17.813.082 14.413.600 EKP in integrala Krepitev kompetenc, usposabljanje, 36.210 550.000 553.346 integrala prekvalifikacija, prilagajanje demograf- skim spremembam SKUPAJ 124.573.077 136.785.992 98.516.464 64 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 8. PREGLED PRISPEVKA POSAMEZNIH SKLOPOV UKREPOV K POSAMEZNEMU ZASTAVLJENEMU CILJU Pregled prispevka posameznih sklopov ukrepov je narejen na osnovi tabele v 6. poglavju in posameznih zastavljenih ciljev v poglavju 1.3. KLJUČNI izbrani cilji 2030 Produktivnost Izvoz ZELENO USTVARJALNO PAMETNO dela (2030 Snovna Inovacijski indeks DESI Indeks (cilj 2030 je 66 cilj produktiv- in dvig na lestvici (2030 cilj sklopi ukrepov tisoč EUR doda- 29,8 nost (2030 EII med vodilne je doseči na vrednost na mrd cilj je 3,50 inovatorke (2030 60 točk, 10. zaposlenega) EUR) SKM/kg) cilj je doseči 110% mesto) v EU) VLAGANJA V RAZISKAVE IN TEHNOLOŠKI RAZVOJ 1. Raziskave, razvoj in inovacije (RRI):      Davčna olajšava za RR in finančne spodbude s poudarkom na projektih, ki izražajo možnost hitre komercializacije inovacij v obliki novih produktov in storitev ali patentov (TRL 6-9). 2. Demonstracijski in pilotni RRI projekti:      Spodbude za podporo najbolj obetavnim pro- jektom, ki doprinašajo k razvoju novih tehnologij s poudarkom na zeleno in digitalno. 3. Vključevanje v med- narodne raziskovalno-    -razvojne in inovacijske projekte in programe: spodbujanje oblikovanja in vključevanja v med- narodne RRI projekte z namenom prodora na tuje trge. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 65 KLJUČNI izbrani cilji 2030 Produktivnost Izvoz ZELENO USTVARJALNO PAMETNO dela (2030 Snovna Inovacijski indeks DESI Indeks (cilj 2030 je 66 cilj produktiv- in dvig na lestvici (2030 cilj sklopi ukrepov tisoč EUR doda- 29,8 nost (2030 EII med vodilne je doseči na vrednost na mrd cilj je 3,50 inovatorke (2030 60 točk, 10. zaposlenega) EUR) SKM/kg) cilj je doseči 110% mesto) v EU) 4. Mreženje in sodelo- vanje na področju razi-    skav, razvoja in inovacij: upravljanje in povezova- nje vzpostavljenih mrež deležnikov inovacijskega ekosistema v Sloveniji z določenimi merljivimi parametri uspeha (novi produkti, novi patenti, nova mednarodna sode- lovanja podjetij). SPODBUJNJE PODJETNIŠTVA 5. Podporno okolje za podjetja: ukrepi za    spodbujanje start- in scale-upov, dostop do ključnih informacij na enem mestu, ukrepi za digitalno transformacijo, ukrepi za razvoj novih poslovnih modelov. 6. Promocija podje- tništva in inovativ-     nosti: komunikacijske kampanje, podpora konferencam, srečanjem in sejmom, programi nagrajevanja podjetništva in inovativnosti, ambasa- dorji podjetništva. 7. Spodbujanje za- gonskih podjetij in     podjetij s potencialom hitre rasti: spodbude za nova podjetja, mentorske sheme, povezovanje. 66 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 KLJUČNI izbrani cilji 2030 Produktivnost Izvoz ZELENO USTVARJALNO PAMETNO dela (2030 Snovna Inovacijski indeks DESI Indeks (cilj 2030 je 66 cilj produktiv- in dvig na lestvici (2030 cilj sklopi ukrepov tisoč EUR doda- 29,8 nost (2030 EII med vodilne je doseči na vrednost na mrd cilj je 3,50 inovatorke (2030 60 točk, 10. zaposlenega) EUR) SKM/kg) cilj je doseči 110% mesto) v EU) 8. Podpora rasti, razvo- ju in ohranitvi podjetij,      predvsem MSP: ugodno dolžniško financiranje (krediti, garancije, obre- stne mere), semenski in tvegani kapital, spodbude za lesnopredelovalno panogo in energetsko transformacijo. 9. Netehnološke inovaci- je in poslovni modeli:      podpore pri uvajanju alternativnih poslovnih modelov (digitalno poslovanje, trajnostno poslovanje,…), nove me- tode internacionalizacije, avtomatizacija proizvod- nih procesov. SPODBUJANJE INVESTICIJ IN INTERNACIONALIZACIJE 10. Spodbujanje investi- cij: spodbude strateškim     investicijam in investici- jam z večjim potencialom rasti dodane vrednosti s poudarkom na zelenem in digitalnem. 11. Internacionalizacija: nastopi na tujih trgih,    vzpostavljanje predstav- ništev, krepitev delegacij, spodbujanje skupnega nastopa podjetij na tujih trgih. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 67 KLJUČNI izbrani cilji 2030 Produktivnost Izvoz ZELENO USTVARJALNO PAMETNO dela (2030 Snovna Inovacijski indeks DESI Indeks (cilj 2030 je 66 cilj produktiv- in dvig na lestvici (2030 cilj sklopi ukrepov tisoč EUR doda- 29,8 nost (2030 EII med vodilne je doseči na vrednost na mrd cilj je 3,50 inovatorke (2030 60 točk, 10. zaposlenega) EUR) SKM/kg) cilj je doseči 110% mesto) v EU) VLAGANJE V KADRE 12. Krepitev kompe- tenc in usposabljanje:      podpora modelom za napovedovanje kompe- tenc in krepitev znanj ter izobraževalnih potreb za poklice prihodnosti s poudarkom na zelenem, ustvarjalnem in pamet- nem razvoju. POSLOVNO OKOLJE 13. Infrastruktura: podpora izgradnji 5G,      e-storitve, lokalne ener- getske skupnosti. 14. Zakonodaja in po- slovno okolje: stabilnost   in predvidljivost ter evropsko primerljiva normativna ureditev. 68 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 9. ZAKLJUČEK Industrijska strategija postavlja usmeritve za prehod gospodarstva v zeleno, ustvarjalno in pametno gospodarstvo ter s tem dvig konkurenčnosti. V trenutku nastajanja te strategije se svet sooča s pandemijo koronavirusa; s tem povezani izzivi so večji kot kadarkoli prej. Največji izziv tega trenutka je zagotovo gospodarsko, socialno in splošno okrevanje držav. Vse to terja spremembe v razmišljanju in delovanju na vseh področjih. Razmišljanje izven ustaljenih okvirjev je postalo nujnost. To brez strukturne prenove evropskega in seveda tudi slovenskega gospodarstva v smeri trajnostnega, vključujočega in regionalno bolj uravnoteže- nega razvoja ne bo mogoče. Prav tako je treba ujeti val četrte industrijske revolucije. Slovenija ima priložnost, da s pomočjo razpoložljivih evropskih sredstev zagotovi potrebna vlaganja v raziskave in razvoj, inovacije, digitalizacijo, izobraževanje, pa tudi usposabljanja za številne poklice prihodnosti. Prioriteta pri investiranju evropskih sredstev je zagotovitev dolgoročne konkurenčnosti slovenskega gospodarstva. V novi industrijski strategiji 2021 - 2030 določamo cilje za razvojni preboj slovenske indu- strije in poti do njih. Cilji industrijske strategije do leta 2030 so doseči 66.000 evrov dodane vrednosti na zaposlenega, preiti v krožno gospodarstvo in močno okrepiti inovacijski zagon podjetij. Za izvajanje strategije bo v naslednjih letih na voljo vrsta ukrepov, ki bodo usmer- jeni v krepitev zelenega, ustvarjalnega in pametnega razvoja, in ki bodo podjetjem pomagala spreminjati poslovne procese in krepiti njihov dolgoročni položaj na globalnem trgu. S to strategijo se povezujemo v širšo zgodbo industrijske strategije EU, s katero se vzpostavlja skupna zaveza EU, njenih držav članic in regij, industrije, MSP-jev in vseh drugih zainte- resiranih strani za prenovljeno partnerstvo. S tem bo Evropi omogočeno, da kar najbolje izkoristi industrijsko preobrazbo v smeri zelenega in digitalnega prehoda ter hkrati povečuje strateško avtonomijo gospodarstva. V EU je že dolga leta uveljavljeno načelo »Pomisli najprej na male« (ang. ‚Think small first‘), kar pomeni, da je treba pri sprejemu zakonodaje najprej pomisliti na mikro podjetja, ki ni- majo veliko virov, da bi se lahko prilagajala spremembam. S to industrijsko strategijo želimo uvajati načelo »Pomisli najprej zeleno, ustvarjalno in pametno« (ang. ‚Think Green, Creative and Smart first‘), kar pomeni, da želimo, da se pri vsakem ukrepu, vsakem razvoju novega izdelka, storitve ali poslovnega modela, pri zagonu novega podjetja, pri novih investicijah,… najprej pomisli, kako in na kakšen način bi lahko prispevali k zelenemu, ustvarjalnemu in pametnemu razvoju. Na ta način bomo krepili položaj in mednarodno konkurenčnost indu- strije ter zagotovili, da ostane vitalni del slovenskega gospodarstva. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 69 SEZNAM UPORABLJENIH KRATIC ARRS Javna agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije BAT Najboljše tehnologije, ki so na voljo, angl. Best available technologies BDP Bruto družbeni proizvod BDV Bruto dodana vrednost CCS Zajemanje in shranjevanje ogljika, angl. Carbon Capture and Storage CCU Tehnologije zajema in ponovne uporabe ogljika, angl. Carbon Capture and Utilisation CEE – 4 Skupina štirih srednjeevropskih držav - Češka, Madžarska, Poljska, Slovaška DESI indeks angl. The Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) DPS Domača poraba snovi DV Dodana vrednost EBITDA Prihodek pred obrestmi, davki in amortizacijo EII Energetsko intenzivna industrija EK Evropska komisija ETS Sistem EU za trgovanja z emisijami, angl. Emission trading system EU Evropska unija EZD Evropski zeleni dogovor GZS Gospodarska zbornica Slovenije IKT Informacijske in komunikacijske tehnologije IoT Internet stvari, angl. Internet of Things JRO Javne raziskovalne organizacije KCDM Kompetenčni center za dizajn management KI Kreativne industrije KKS Kulturno-kreativni sektor LCA Analiza življenjskega cikla, angl. life cycle assesment LULUCF Sprememba rabe zemljišč in gozdarstvo, angl. Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry 70 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 MDDSZ Ministrstvo za delo, družino, socialne zadeve in enake možnosti MF Ministrstvo za finance MGRT Ministrstvo za gospodarski razvoj in tehnologijo MIZŠ Ministrstvo za izobraževanje, znanost in šolstvo MJU Ministrstvo za javno upravo MOP Ministrstvo za okolje in prostor MSP Mala in srednje velika podjetja, angl. Small and medium enterprises MzI Ministrstvo za infrastrukturo NEPN Nacionalni energetsko podnebni načrt NVO Nevladne organizacije RRD Raziskovalno-razvojna dejavnost RRI Raziskave, razvoj in inovacije R&R Raziskave in razvoj S4 Slovenska strategija pametne specializacije SID Slovenska izvozna in razvojna banka SIO Subjekti inovativnega okolja SIP Slovenska industrijska politika SIS Slovenska industrijska strategija SKM Standard kupne moči SPIRIT Javna agencija Republike Slovenije za spodbujanje podjetništva, internaciona- lizacije, tujih investicij in tehnologije SPOT Mreža slovenskih poslovnih točk SPS Slovenski podjetniški sklad SRIP Strateško razvojno-inovacijsko partnerstvo SRRS Slovenski regionalno razvojni sklad SRS 2030 Strategija razvoja Slovenije 2030 SURS Statistični urad Republike Slovenije SVRK Služba vlade za razvoj in evropsko kohezijsko politiko TGP Toplogredni plini TRL Nivo tehnološke pripravljenosti, angl. Technology Readiness Level UPI Ustvarjalnost, podjetnost in inovativnost SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 71 PRILOGE Priloga 1: Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji v obdobju 2008–2018 Število subjektov Na področju predelovalnih dejavnosti je bilo konec 2018 aktivnih 19.705 podjetij (pravnih oseb oziroma družb, fizičnih oseb oziroma s. p.-jev ter normiranih s. p.-jev, ki so izkazali prihodek ali stroške dela). V zadnjih desetih letih se je število podjetij povečalo za 1,3 % na leto, v zadnjih petih letih pa za 1,7 % na leto. V 2018 je bil med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi v primerjavi z letom 2008 porast števila podjetij največji v prehrambni (1.513 zaposlenih), strojni (517 zaposlenih), lesni (459 zaposlenih) ter kovinski industriji (295 zaposlenih). Šte- vilo podjetij se je znižalo v tekstilni, papirni, kemični, elektro in nekovinski industriji (od 282 v tekstilni do 18 v nekovinski industriji). V letu 2018 je največ podjetij delovalo v kovinski industriji (23 % vseh), sledijo strojna (17 %), lesna (16 %) ter prehrambna industrija (13 %). Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. 72 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Opis metodologije Poslovanje predelovalnih dejavnosti je analiza na podlagi podatkov o poslova- nju poslovnih subjektov Ajpesa (Letni računovodski izkazi gospodarskih družb, gospodarskih javnih služb, malih samostojnih podjetnikov, zadrug, društev, itd.) kot tudi podatkov iz davčnega obračuna akontacije dohodnine od dohodka iz dejavnosti, davka na dodano vrednost in davka od dohodkov pravnih oseb, ki jih zbira FURS. V prehrambno industrijo so vštete dejavnosti C10 Proizvodnja živil in C11 Pro- izvodnja pijač; v tekstilno industrijo C13 Proizvodnja tekstilij, C14 Proizvodnja oblačil, C15 Proizvodnja usnja, usnjenih izdelkov; v lesno industrijo C16 Obdela- va in predelava lesa, C31 Proizvodnja pohištva; v papirno industrijo C17 Proi- zvodnja papirja in izdelkov iz papirja, C18 Tiskarstvo in razmnoževanje posnetih nosilcev zapisa; v kemično industrijo C19 Proizvodnja koksa in naftnih derivatov, C20 Proizvodnja kemikalij, C21 Proizvodnja farmacevtskih surovin, C22 Proizvo- dnja izdelkov iz gume in plastike; nekovinski mineralni izdelki C23; v kovinsko industrijo C24 Proizvodnja kovin, C25 Proizvodnja kovinskih izdelkov; v elektro industrijo C26 Proizvodnja računalnikov, elektronskih in optičnih izdelkov, C27 Proizvodnja električnih naprav; v strojno industrijo C28 Proizvodnja drugih stro- jev in naprav, C29 Proizvodnja motornih vozil, C30 Proizvodnja drugih vozil in plovil, C33 Popravila in montaža strojev in naprav; v druge dejavnosti C32 druge predelovalne dejavnosti. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 73 Prihodek od prodaje v predelovalnih dejavnostih Gospodarski subjekti iz predelovalnih dejavnosti so v letu 2018 ustvarili za 31,3 mrd EUR prihodkov od prodaje na osnovi prodajne vrednosti kupcem zaračunanih prodanih proizvo- dov ali trgovskega blaga in materiala ter opravljenih storitev. V 2018 so predelovalne dejav- nosti ustvarile za 5,4 mrd EUR več prihodka kot leta 2008 oziroma so ti porasli za 21 %. V zadnjih enajstih letih so predelovalne dejavnosti v povprečju ustvarile 25,4 mrd EUR prihod- kov od prodaje, v zadnjih petih letih pa zaradi konjunkture in večje vpetosti v mednarodne tokove v povprečju 27,4 mrd EUR prihodka od prodaje. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) so se v predelovalnih dejavnostih prihodki najbolj zvi- šali v strojni (1,6 mrd EUR), kemični (1,3 mrd EUR), elektro (1,3 mrd EUR) ter kovinski industriji (1,2 mrd EUR). Tekstilna in lesna industrija v 2018 še nista prišli na nivo iz leta 2008, tako zaradi stečajev mnogih podjetij, kakor tudi zaradi prestrukturiranja (zniževanja proizvodnje pri obstoječih družbah). Kriza je leta 2009 prizadela vse panoge v predelovalnih dejavnostih, vendar je večina panog presegla nivo predkriznega leta. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V obdobju zadnjih petih let (2014–2018) so prihodki v predelovalni dejavnosti vsako leto v povprečju porasli za 5,6 % letno. Znotraj predelovalnih dejavnosti so najbolj porasli v strojni industriji (za 8,3 % letno), drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 7,8 % letno), lesni ter ko- vinski in elektro industriji (6,7 % oziroma 6,6 % letno). 74 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Prihodek Vred. Ø Vred. Vred. Sprem. v % Ø Vred. CAGR38 od prodaje 2018, 2008– razlika 2018/2008 2014– v ob- mio EUR 2018, 2018– 2018, dobju mio 2008, mio EUR 2014– EUR mio EUR 2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 31.279 25.360 5.450 21,1 % 27.446 5,6 % Prehrambna 2.384 2.196 125 5,5 % 2.263 2,2 % Tekstilna 895 846 -173 -16,2 % 812 2,9 % Lesna 1.415 1.191 -58 -3,9 % 1.247 6,8 % Papirna 1.297 1.188 10 0,8 % 1.226 2,7 % Kemična 6.048 5.010 1.375 29,4 % 5.473 3,6 % Nekovinska 1.014 907 9 0,9 % 919 3,4 % Kovinska 6.431 4.951 1.198 22,9 % 5.559 6,7% Elektro 4.387 3.454 1.337 43,8 % 3.870 6,6 % Strojna 6.995 5.275 1.583 29,3 % 5.739 8,3 % Druge 484 380 115 31,3 % 420 7,8 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Prodaja na domačem trgu Prodaja v predelovalnih dejavnostih na domačem trgu se je v zadnjem desetletnem obdobju najbolj povečala v zadnjih dveh letih (2017 in 2018). Višja je bila tako zaradi višje potrošnje prebivalstva kot podjetij. Čisti prihodki so se drastično zmanjševali v letu 2009, sledila pa sta še dva cikla zmanjšanja prodaje na domačem trgu in sicer v letih 2012-2013 ter v letu 2015. Prihodki od prodaje na domačem trgu, ki so v 2018 znašali 9,4 mrd EUR, so se v zadnjih 38 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 75 desetih letih znižali v povprečju za 0,7 % na leto. V zadnjih enajstih letih so predelovalne de- javnosti v povprečju ustvarile 8,6 mrd EUR prihodkov od prodaje na domačem trgu. V 2018 so predelovalne dejavnosti v primerjavi z letom 2008 beležile 682 mio EUR manj prihodkov od prodaje na domačem trgu, kar predstavlja upad za 6,8 %. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) so se znotraj predelovalnih dejavnosti prihodki na do- mačem trgu zvišali le v strojni industriji (27 mio EUR), drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (16 mio EUR) in kovinski industriji (44.000 EUR). Vse ostale dejavnosti pri prodaji na domačem trgu še niso dosegle nivojev iz leta 2008. Največji zaostanek beležijo predvsem nekovinska (244 mio EUR), tekstilna (188 mio EUR) ter prehrambna industrija (124 mio EUR). V obdobju zadnjih petih let (2014–2018) so prihodki na domačem trgu vsako leto v povpre- čju porasli za 2,6 % letno. Med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi so prihodki na domačem trgu v povprečju najbolj porasli v lesni industriji (za 5,9 % letno), elektro in kovinski industriji (za 3,9 in 3,8 % letno), papirni (za 3,6 % letno) ter kemični industriji (za 3 % letno). Prihodki na domačem Vred. Ø Vred. Vred. Sprem. Ø Vred. CAGR39 trgu 2018, 2008– razlika v% 2014– v ob- mio EUR 2018, 2018– 2018/2008 2018, dobju mio EUR 2008, mio EUR 2014– mio EUR 2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 9.364 8.639 -682 -6,8 % 8.628 2,6 % Prehrambna 1.638 1.630 -124 -7,0 % 1.620 0,1 % Tekstilna 212 238 -188 -46,9 % 203 1,5 % Lesna 754 650 -14 -1,9 % 668 5,9 % Papirna 585 534 -73 -11,1 % 514 3,6 % Kemična 1.271 1.166 -35 -2,7 % 1.164 3,0 % Nekovinska 403 434 -244 -37,7 % 370 1,2 % Kovinska 2.223 1.913 0 0,0 % 1.993 3,8 % Elektro 829 764 -48 -5,4 % 772 3,9 % Strojna 1.311 1.185 27 2,1 % 1.201 1,4 % Druge 138 123 16 13,3 % 122 3,3 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Prodaja na tujem trgu Po začetku krize v letu 2009 in drastičnem upadu tako domačega povpraševanja kot izvoza so predelovalne dejavnosti hitro nadoknadile izgube pri izvozu. Predelovalne dejavnosti so v 2018 beležile 21,7 mrd EUR izvoza ter so tako za 43,8 % oziroma za 6,6 mrd EUR presegle izvoz iz leta 2008. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) se je znotraj predelovalnih dejavnosti izvoz najbolj zvišal v strojni, kovinski, kemični, elektro in nekovinski industriji. Le tekstilna industrija v 2018 ni uspela doseči nivojev izvoza iz leta 2008. V obdobju zadnjih petih let (2014–2018) se je izvoz v predelovalni dejavnosti vsako leto v povprečju povečal za 7,3 % letno. Med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi je izvoz v povprečju najbolj porasel v drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 9,9 39 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). 76 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 % letno), lesni (9,6 % letno) in kovinski industriji (za 9,4 % letno), kakor tudi elektro in stroj- ni industriji (8,9 in 8,8 % letno). Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Znotraj predelovalnih panog so v 2018 največji izvozniki v strojni industriji, ki skupaj do- segajo 5,5 mrd EUR izvoza oziroma 25 % izvoza celotne predelovalne panoge, sledijo še ke- mična s 4,8 mrd EUR, kovinska s 4,3 mrd EUR in elektro industrija s 3,5 mrd EUR izvoza. Slednje izvozijo kar 83 % celotnega izvoza predelovalne panoge. Prihodek 2018, Ø 2008– 2018- Sprem. Ø 2014– CAGR40 v na tujem trgu mio EUR 2018, 2008, v% 2018, obdobju mio EUR mio EUR 2018/2008 mio EUR 2014– 2018) PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 21.764 16.406 6.634 43,8 % 18.627 7,3 % Prehrambna 630 470 243 62,7 % 548 7,4 % Tekstilna 661 581 -21 -3,1 % 578 2,9 % Lesna 777 571 203 35,3 % 652 9,6 % Papirna 743 629 197 36,1 % 696 3,8 % Kemična 4.762 3.861 1.391 41,3 % 4.322 3,9 % Nekovinska 589 459 181 44,4 % 532 5,4 % Kovinska 4.293 3.010 1.427 49,8 % 3.582 9,4 % Elektro 3.525 2.534 1.266 56,0 % 2.953 8,9 % Strojna 5.479 4.089 1.603 41,4 % 4.512 8,8 % Druge 304 201 143 89,1 % 253 9,9 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Podjetja v predelovalnih dejavnostih so v 2018 dosegla 70-odstotni delež prihodkov na tujih trgih v prihodkih od prodaje predelovalnih dejavnosti. Tako so z aktivnejšim povezovanjem 40 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 77 in iskanjem novih trgov predelovalne dejavnosti delež izvoza v prihodkih zvišale z 59 % v 2008. Najbolj izvozno usmerjena je bila v 2018 elektro industrija (z ustvarjenim 80-odsto- tnim deležem izvoza), ki ji sledijo kemična (79 %), strojna (78 %) in tekstilna industrija (74 %). Najmanj izvozno usmerjena pa je prehrambna industrija (26 %). Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Prodaja na tujih trgih EU (kjer zajemamo le podatek družb in s.p-jev, ki sicer predstavlja- jo večino izvoza) je za predelovalne dejavnosti najpomembnejša, saj so na tem trgu v 2018 ustvarili kar 80 % celotnega izvoza oziroma 17,2 mrd EUR izvoza blaga in storitev. Izvozni trg EU je najpomembnejši za strojno industrijo, saj je med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi ta v 2018 v EU izvozila 29 % celotnega izvoza EU, sledijo kovinska (21 %), kemična (19 %), elektro industrija (15 % oziroma 4,9 mrd EUR izvoza), medtem ko papirna, tekstilna in prehrambna industrija v EU izvozijo med 3,5-2,5 % celotnega izvoza predelovalnih dejavnosti v EU. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. 78 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Prihodki od prodaje na trgu EU so se v zadnjih desetih letih zvišali v povprečju za 4,5 % na leto. V letu 2008 so prihodki od prodaje na trgih EU znašali 11,1 mrd EUR (izvoz na Hrvaško še ni bil vključen) in v 2009 upadli na 9 mrd EUR, leta 2011 presegli nivo predkriznega leta, nato pa smo, ob ugodnih ekonomijah EU, pospešeno izvažali na te trge. V zadnjih petih letih so predelovalne dejavnosti na trgih EU v povprečju ustvarile 14,6 mrd EUR prihodkov od prodaje. V zadnjih petih letih (2018/2014) so se prihodki na trgu EU med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi v povprečju zvišali za 8,5 % na leto, relativno najbolj v prehrambni industriji (13,6 % na leto), ki je sicer med vsemi predelovalnimi dejavnostmi med najmanj izvozno usmerjenimi. Po rasti v zadnjih petih letih sledijo še lesna (v povprečju 11,8 % na leto), elek- tro, strojna in kovinska industrija (10 % na leto). Čisti prihodki od prodaje na trgih izven EU (kjer zajemamo le podatek družb in s.p.-jev) je za predelovalne dejavnosti manj pomemben kot EU, se pa delež izvoza na trge izven EU z leti krepi. V 2018 so predelovalne dejavnosti izvozile na trge izven EU 20 % celotnega izvoza oziroma 1,5 mrd EUR izvoza blaga in storitev. V 2018 so največji izvozniki na trge izven EU v kemični industriji, ki dosegajo 1,5 mrd EUR izvoza oziroma 34 % izvoza celotne predelo- valne panoge izven EU, sledijo še elektro (20-odstotni delež), kovinska (15-odstotni delež) in strojna industrija (12-odstotni delež). V obdobju zadnjih petih let (2014–2018) so prihodki z izvozom na trge izven EU v predelovalni dejavnosti vsako leto v povprečju porasli za 3,1 % letno. Med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi je izvoz na trge izven EU v povprečju najbolj porasel v drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (14 % letno), tekstilni (za 9 % letno), kovinski (8,7 % letno), elektro industriji (za 5,4 % letno), upadel pa v papirni, lesni in prehrambni industriji (od 3 v lesni do 1,5 % na leto prehrambni industriji). Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 79 Prihodek 2018, Ø 2004– Ø Sprem. 2018, Ø 2004– CAGR41 na tujem trgu mio EUR 2018, v %/ leto mio EUR 2018, v ob- trg EU mio EUR (2014– trg izven mio EUR dobju trg EU 2018) EU trg izven 2014– trg EU EU 2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 17.239 14.595 8,5 % 4.526 4.031 3,1 % Prehrambna 431 358 13,6 % 199 189 -1,4 % Tekstilna 498 456 1,3 % 164 122 9,0 % Lesna 687 563 11,8 % 90 89 -1,9 % Papirna 601 542 5,9 % 142 154 -2,9 % Kemična 3.216 2.896 5,5 % 1.547 1.427 0,9 % Nekovinska 462 409 6,3 % 127 123 2,5 % Kovinska 3.625 3.047 9,6 % 668 535 8,7 % Elektro 2.625 2.172 10,2 % 901 781 5,4 % Strojna 4.920 4.000 9,8 % 559 512 2,1 % Druge 174 153 7,3 % 130 100 14,0 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Število zaposlenih V 2018 je bilo v predelovalnih dejavnostih 202.000 zaposlenih oseb, ki delajo pri delodajalcu (pri pravnih osebah, samostojnih podjetnikih ali drugih registriranih fizičnih osebah), ki so prejemali plačo ter so bili na podlagi pogodbe o zaposlitvi obvezno socialno zavarovani, kar je za 20.000 oseb oziroma za 8,9 % manj kot leta 2008. V tem času je število zaposlenih najbolj poraslo v kemični (+5.081 zaposlenih), strojni (+2.066 zaposlenih. predvsem v popravilih in montaži strojev in naprav) in elektro industriji (+847 zaposlenih), zmanjšanje pa so beležili predvsem v tekstilni (-11.731 oseb), lesni (-9.219 zaposlenih), papirni industriji (-3.337 zapo- slenih). V zadnjih enajstih letih (2008–2018) je bilo v povprečju 189.708, v zadnjih petih letih (2014–2018) pa 187.546 zaposlenih. V zadnjih petih letih se je število zaposlenih povečalo za 2,6 % na leto, najbolj v kemični, kovinski in strojni industriji, največje zmanjšanje pa so doživeli v papirni, pa tudi tekstilni ter nekovinski industriji. 41 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). 80 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Število Vred. Ø Vred. Vred. Sprem. Ø Vred. CAGR42 zaposlenih 2018, 2008– razlika v% 2014– v obdob- mio 2018, 2018–2008, 2018/2008 2018, ju 2014– EUR mio EUR mio EUR mio EUR 2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 201.896 189.724 -19.586 -8,8 % 187.581 2,6 % Prehrambna 16.247 15.565 -1.054 -6,1 % 15.288 2,1 % Tekstilna 9.166 12.142 -11.728 -56,1 % 9.325 -2,5 % Lesna 13.169 14.536 -8.858 -40,2 % 12.398 1,6 % Papirna 5.705 8.467 -5.840 -50,6 % 7.495 -7,3 % Kemična 24.712 23.804 -2.194 -8,2 % 22.752 1,7 % Nekovinska 6.967 7.459 -1.958 -21,9 % 6.840 -0,4 % Kovinska 42.712 38.378 -79 -0,2 % 39.496 3,7 % Elektro 28.024 25.965 848 3,1 % 26.115 2,2 % Strojna 41.193 35.704 2.074 5,3 % 37.161 3,6 % Druge 4.315 4.149 -484 -10,1 % 4.099 2,6 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. 42 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 81 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Dodana vrednost in bruto marža Dodana vrednost v stroških faktorjev je enako kot bruto prihodek iz poslovnih dejavnosti po popravkih za subvencije za poslovanje in posredne davke. Ustvarjena dodana vrednost, ki predstavlja razliko med prodajnimi prihodki ter nekaterimi drugimi poslovnimi prihodki (kosmati donos iz poslovanja) ter stroški blaga, materiala in storitev in drugimi poslovnimi odhodki, je v 2018 v predelovalnih dejavnostih znašala 8,8 mrd EUR, kar je bilo za 2,1 mrd EUR oziroma za 30,7 % več kot v letu 2008. V zadnjih enajstih letih je dodana vrednost v pre- delovalnih dejavnostih v povprečju letno znašala 6,9 mrd EUR. Večji upad dodane vrednosti so predelovalne dejavnosti beležile v letu 2009 ter nižjo leta 2012, v povprečju pa je v zadnjih desetih letih letno beležila 2,7-odstotno rast. 82 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V strukturi dodane vrednosti vseh predelovalnih dejavnosti je v 2018 največ dodane vred- nosti ustvarila kemična industrija (23-odstotni delež), sledijo ji strojna (20,4%), kovinska (19,8 %), prehrambna (6,7 %) in lesna industrija (5 %). Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) se je med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi dodana vrednost najbolj zvišala v strojni in kemični industriji (598 mio EUR), kovinski (456 mio EUR), ele- ktro (330 mio EUR) ter prehrambni industriji (124 mio EUR). Tekstilna, papirna in lesna industrija v 2018 še niso ustvarile nivoja dodane vrednosti iz leta 2008. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 83 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V zadnjih petih letih (2014–2018) je dodana vrednost v predelovalnih dejavnostih v povpre- čju porasla za 7 % letno ter beležila v povprečju 7,8 mrd EUR dodane vrednosti. Med pre- delovalnimi dejavnostmi je dodana vrednost na leto najbolj porasla v drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (9,8 % letno), v kovinski industriji za 9 % letno, lesni za 8,7 % letno in strojni industriji za 8,2 % letno. Dodana vrednost 43 Vred. Ø Vred. Vred. Sprem. Ø Vred. CAGR44 v 2018, 2008– razlika v% 2014– obdobju mio EUR 2018, 2018– 2018/2008 2018, 2014– mio EUR 2008, mio EUR 2018 mio EUR PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 8.812 6.901 2.068 30,7 % 7.775 7,0 % Prehrambna 593 490 124 26,5 % 527 6,2 % Tekstilna 263 250 -51 -16,3 % 240 4,3 % Lesna 439 350 -1 -0,3 % 373 8,8 % Papirna 300 301 -26 -8,1 % 307 0,5 % Kemična 2.022 1.583 570 39,2 % 1.776 5,8 % Nekovinska 337 274 27 8,6 % 294 6,2 % Kovinska 1.748 1.301 456 35,3 % 1.550 9,0 % Elektro 1.115 901 330 42,1 % 1.021 6,1 % Strojna 1.795 1.322 570 46,5 % 1.534 8,2 % Druge 170 129 42 33,1 % 149 9,8 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Bruto marža (delež dodane vrednosti v prihodkih) se v zadnjih petih letih giblje na ravni med 28 in 29 %, kar pomeni, da na ravni prodanih proizvodov in storitev ni bilo narejene- ga Dodana 43 kvalitativnega vrednost vnapredka, temveč je bila rast dodane vrednosti vezana predvsem na večjo stroških faktorjev. 44 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). 84 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 proizvedeno količino proizvodov ali storitev. V letu 2018 je v primerjavi z letom 2008 bruto marža višja za 2,1 o.t. V tem času se je med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi bruto marža najbolj zvišala v prehrambni, strojni in kemični industriji, kakor tudi v kovinski in nekovinski in- dustriji, znižala pa v tekstilni in papirni industriji. Med vsemi predelovalnimi panogami so v 2018 beležili najvišjo bruto maržo v drugih pre- delovalnih dejavnostih (35 %), sledijo kemična (34 %), nekovinska (33 %) in lesna industrija (29 %), najnižjo pa imata papirna in prehrambna industrija (25 %). Bruto marža45 v % Vred. 2018, Ø 2018– Ø 2014– Razlika CAGR46 v v% 2018 2018 2018-2008 obdobju 2014–2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 28,2 % 27,1 % 28,3 % 2,1 o.t. 1,3 % Prehrambna 24,9 % 22,3 % 23,3 % 4,1 o.t. 3,9 % Tekstilna 29,4 % 29,6 % 29,6 % 0,0 o.t. 1,3 % Lesna 31,0 % 29,3 % 29,9 % 1,1 o.t. 1,9 % Papirna 23,1 % 25,3 % 25,1 % -2,2 o.t. -2,1 % Kemična 33,4 % 31,5 % 32,4 % 2,4 o.t. 2,1 % Nekovinska 33,2 % 30,1 % 32,0 % 2,4 o.t. 2,7 % Kovinska 27,2 % 26,1 % 27,9 % 2,5 o.t. 2,1 % Elektro 25,4 % 26,1 % 26,4 % -0,3 o.t. -0,4 % Strojna 25,7 % 25,0 % 26,8 % 3,0 o.t. -0,1 % Druge 35,2 % 33,6 % 35,4 % 0,5 o.t. 1,8 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Dodana vrednost na zaposlenega Dodana vrednost na zaposlenega je v 2018 v predelovalnih dejavnostih znašala 44.000 EUR, kar je bilo za 43 % več kot v letu 2008. V zadnjih enajstih letih je dodana vrednost na zaposle- nega v predelovalnih dejavnostih v povprečju letno znašala 36.000 EUR. Večji upad dodane vrednosti na zaposlenega so predelovalne dejavnosti beležile predvsem v letu 2009 (-12 %), v povprečju pa je v zadnjih desetih letih beležila 3,7-odstotno letno rast. 45 Bruto marža je izračun dodane vrednost v prihodkih. 46 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 85 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Dodana vrednost na Vred. 2018, Ø Vred. Sprem. v % Ø Vred. CAGR48 v zaposlenega47 EUR 2008–2018, 2018/2008 2014–2018, obdobju mio EUR mio EUR 2014–2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 43.645 36.464 43,3 % 41.364 4,3 % Prehrambna 36.521 31.515 34,7 % 34.454 4,0 % Tekstilna 28.731 21.802 90,7 % 25.810 6,9 % Lesna 33.347 24.818 66,8 % 30.006 7,1 % Papirna 52.595 36.426 85,9 % 41.636 8,4 % Kemična 81.840 67.032 51,6 % 77.954 4,0 % Nekovinska 48.323 37.119 39,2 % 43.026 6,6 % Kovinska 40.920 33.750 35,5 % 39.120 5,1 % Elektro 39.803 34.701 37,8 % 39.061 3,8 % Strojna 43.571 36.860 39,1 % 41.144 4,5 % Druge 39.434 31.045 48,0% 36.272 7,0 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) se je med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi dodana vrednost na zaposlenega najbolj zvišala v lesni in tekstilni industriji (14.000 EUR), nekovinski in- dustriji (13.000 EUR), drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (13.000 EUR) ter strojni industriji (12.000 EUR). 47 Dodana vrednost na zaposlenega je izračun dodane vrednosti v stroških faktorjev glede na število zaposlenih. 48 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). 86 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V zadnjih petih letih (2014–2018) je dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v predelovalnih de- javnostih v povprečju porasla za 4,3 % letno ter beležila 41.371 EUR dodane vrednosti na zaposlenega. V zadnjih petih letih je bila med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi dodana vrednost na zaposlenega najvišja v kemični (61.000 EUR), nekovinski (43.000 EUR), papirni (38.000 EUR) in strojni industriji (41.000 EUR). V tem času se je najbolj zvišala v lesni industriji (7,6 % na leto), drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (7 % na leto), tekstilni (6,9 % na leto) in nekovinski industriji (6,5 % na leto). Najnižjo dodano vrednost v zadnjih petih letih beležita tekstilna (26.000 EUR) ter lesna industrija (30.000 EUR). Stroški dela v dodani vrednosti Stroški dela, ki v večini podjetij predstavljajo največji odhodek med poslovnimi odhodki, so v predelovalnih dejavnostih v letu 2018 znašali 5,4 mrd EUR ter so se v zadnjih petih letih zvišali 8-krat, izjema sta bili leti 2009 in 2013. Stroški dela so se v 2018 v primerjavi z letom 2008 zvišali za 24,4 %. V zadnjih enajstih letih so predelovalne dejavnosti v povprečju bele- žile 4,3 mrd EUR stroškov dela, v zadnjih petih letih ob vse večjem pritisku na rast plač, tudi minimalne, so stroški dela v povprečju znašali 4,7 mrd EUR. SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 87 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) so med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi stroški dela kljub upadu števila zaposlenih najbolj porasli v kemični (349 mio EUR) in strojni industriji (346 mio EUR), na kar je vplivalo predvsem novo zaposlovanje, ter v kovinski industriji (280 mio EUR) ob dvigu plač. V tekstilni, lesni in papirni industriji je strošek dela v 2018 nižji kot v 2008, saj se je v teh panogah število zaposlenih več kot prepolovilo, stroški dela pa so se zmanjšali med 10 in 35 %. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V obdobju zadnjih petih let (2014–2018) so stroški dela v predelovalni dejavnosti vsako leto v povprečju porasli za 5,9 % letno. Med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi so stroški dela na leto najbolj porasli v kovinski in strojni industriji (za 7,3 % letno), drugih predelovalnih dejavno- stih (za 6,5 % letno), kemični (za 6,1 % letno) ter elektro industriji (6 % letno). 88 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Strošek dela Vred. Ø Vred. Vred. Sprem. v % Ø Vred. CAGR49 2018, 2008– razlika 2018/2008 2014– v ob- mio 2018, 2018- 2018, dobju EUR mio EUR 2008, mio EUR 2014– mio EUR 2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 5.376 4.333 1.056 5,9 % 4.693 5,9 % Prehrambna 364 312 48 4,9 % 324 4,9 % Tekstilna 180 192 -100 0,5 % 165 0,5 % Lesna 271 253 -67 4,7 % 241 4,7 % Papirna 200 189 -24 2,5 % 188 2,5 % Kemična 1.079 832 349 6,1 % 938 6,1 % Nekovinska 186 170 9 2,6 % 171 2,6 % Kovinska 1.106 847 280 7,3 % 954 7,3 % Elektro 741 594 194 6,0 % 650 6,0 % Strojna 1.153 863 346 7,3 % 978 7,3 % Druge 99 79 25 6,5 % 85 6,5 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Delež stroškov dela v dodani vrednosti pove, kolikšen delež dodane vrednosti po plačilu delovne sile ostane lastniku kapitala za razvoj, investicije, stroške financiranja, davke in izpla- čilo ali zadržanje dobička. Delež stroškov dela v dodani vrednosti je v predelovalnih dejav- nostih nad 60-odstoten, saj so mnoge panoge delovno intenzivne z nižjo ustvarjeno dodano vrednostjo. V predelovalnih dejavnostih so stroški dela v dodani vrednosti postopno upadali vse od 2013 do 2017, ko so znašali med 64,1 % in 59,1 %, v 2018 pa so ponovno porasli, saj so se stroški dela povišali za več, kot je znašalo zvišanje dodane vrednosti. Najvišje stroške dela v dodani vrednosti so v predelovalnih dejavnostih zabeležili v 2009 (72,6 %), saj so stroški dela upadli za pol manj, kot pa je znašal upad dodane vrednosti zaradi finančne in gospodarske krize. V zadnjih enajstih letih so stroški dela v dodani vrednosti v povprečju znašali 63 %, v letih 2008–2013 so znašali v povprečju 66 %, v naslednjih petih letih (2014–2018) pa 60 %. Med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi beležijo v 2018 najvišji strošek dela v dodani vrednosti v tekstilni (68,4 %) in papirni industriji (66,7%), ki sta delovno zelo intenzivni panogi in ustvarita nižjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega. Sledijo elektro (66,4 %), strojna (64,2 %), kovinska (63,3 %), lesna in prehrambna industrija (dobrih 61 %). 49 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 89 Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) so med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi stroški dela v doda- ni vrednosti upadli za 3 o.t., saj so predelovalne dejavnosti kljub skoraj 20.000 manj zaposle- nih ustvarile višjo dodano vrednost (za 31 %) ob višjih stroških dela (24 %). V tem času so stroški dela v dodani vrednosti najbolj upadli v tekstilni in lesni (za 21 in 15 o.t.), kakor tudi prehrambni industriji (za 6 o.t.) ter porasli v kemični industriji (za 2,3 o.t.). V zadnjih petih letih so stroški dela v dodani vrednosti najbolj upadli v nekovinski in lesni industriji (6,9 in 6 o.t.), kjer tudi delovno intenzivne panoge ustvarjajo proizvode z višjo dodano vrednostjo. Sledijo druge nekovinske predelovalne dejavnosti, kjer so stroški dela upadli za 4,2 o.t. ter strojna industrija. Stroški dela v DV Vred. 2018, Ø 2018– Ø 2014– Sprem. v Sprem. v% 2018 2018 o. t. v o.t. 2018/2008 2014/2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 61,0 % 63,2 % 60,4 % -3,0 o.t. 0,3 o.t. Prehrambna 61,4 % 63,9 % 61,4 % -6,1 o.t. -0,4 o.t. Tekstilna 68,4 % 76,6 % 68,9 % -20,7 o.t. -1,3 o.t. Lesna 61,8 % 73,1 % 64,9 % -15,0 o.t. -6,0 o.t. Papirna 66,7 % 63,0 % 61,1 % -1,8 o.t. 8,1 o.t. Kemična 52,6 % 52,6 % 52,7 % 2,3 o.t. 1,8 o.t. Nekovinska 55,3 % 62,6 % 58,2 % -1,7 o.t. -6,9 o.t. Kovinska 63,3 % 66,2 % 61,5 % -0,7 o.t. 2,9 o.t. Elektro 66,4 % 66,6 % 63,6 % -3,2 o.t. 0,4 o.t. Strojna 64,2 % 65,7 % 63,9 % -1,7 o.t. -1,9 o.t. Druge 58,4 % 62,5 % 57,8 % 0,1 o.t. -4,2 o.t. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. 90 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Bruto poslovni presežek (EBITDA) in marža bruto poslovnega presežka Bruto poslovni presežek je presežek, ki nastane iz poslovnih dejavnosti po poplačilu vhodnih faktorjev dela. Izračuna se lahko iz dodane vrednosti v stroških faktorjev, in sicer tako, da se od te vrednosti odštejejo stroški dela. Bruto poslovni presežek v predelovalnih dejavnostih je v letu 2018 presegel 3,4 mrd EUR, raven iz leta 2008 pa je presegel za 1 mrd EUR oziroma za 41,8 %. Bruto poslovni presežek je presežek, ki zadnjih šest let konstantno raste, v zadnjih desetih letih so predelovalne dejavnosti v povprečju beležile 3,6-odstotno rast na leto, v zad- njih petih letih pa letna rast znaša 8,8 %. V zadnjih enajstih letih so predelovalne dejavnosti v povprečju ustvarile 2,6 mrd EUR bruto poslovnega presežka, v zadnjih petih letih pa 3,1 mrd EUR. V zadnjih desetih letih (2018/2008) se je med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi bruto poslovni presežek najbolj zvišal v strojni in kemični (224 in 221 mio EUR), kovinski (176 mio EUR) in elektro industriji (136 mio EUR). Le papirna industrija še ni dosegla nivoja bruto poslovnega presežka iz leta 2008. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V obdobju zadnjih petih let (2014–2018) je bruto poslovni presežek med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi vsako leto v povprečju najbolj porasel v lesni in tekstilni industriji (za 18 in 17 % letno), drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 16 % letno), kovinski in nekovinski (12 in 11 % letno) ter strojni industriji (za 10 % letno). Med vsemi predelovalnimi panogami so v 2018 največ bruto poslovnega presežka ustvarili v kemični industriji (27 % celotne predelovalne panoge), sledijo kovinska in strojna (19 %), elektro (11 %), prehrambna (7 %) in lesna indu- strija (5 %). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 91 Bruto poslovni prese- Vred. Ø Vred. Vred. Sprem. Ø Vred. CAGR50 v žek (EBITDA) 2018, 2008– razlika v% 2014– obdobju mio 2018, 2018– 2018/2008 2018, 2014– EUR mio EUR 2008, mio EUR 2018 mio EUR PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 3.436 2.568 1.013 41,8 % 3.082 8,8 % Prehrambna 229 177 77 50,3 % 203 8,4 % Tekstilna 83 58 49 142,4 % 75 16,7 % Lesna 168 96 66 64,4 % 132 18,2 % Papirna 100 111 -3 -2,8 % 119 -2,9 % Kemična 944 751 221 30,6 % 839 5,5 % Nekovinska 151 104 18 13,2 % 124 11,8 % Kovinska 642 454 176 37,7 % 596 12,3 % Elektro 375 307 136 56,9 % 372 6,4 % Strojna 642 459 224 53,7 % 555 10,0 % Druge 71 50 18 32,9 % 64 15,6 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Marža bruto poslovnega presežka, ki je izračunana kot razmerje med bruto poslovnim pre- sežkom in prihodki od prodaje (izračunan v %) kaže, koliko bruto poslovnega presežka pa- noga realizira na denarno enoto prihodkov od prodaje, izkazana v %. Ta je v predelovalnih dejavnostih v 2018 znašala 11 % ter je bila nižja kot v 2017 (11,7 %). Zviševala se je v letih 2004-2017, v zadnjih petih letih pa je v povprečju znašala 11,2 %. Najvišjo maržo poslovnega presežka so v 2018 zabeležili v kemični (15,6 %) in nekovinski industriji (14,9 %), drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (14,6 %), o najnižjih pa poročajo iz elektro (8,5 %) ter strojne, tekstilne in prehrambne industrije (dobrih 9 %). Marža bruto poslovne- Vred. 2018, Ø 2008– Ø 2014– Sprem. CAGR52 v ga presežka51, v % v% 2018, 2018 2018/2008 obdobju v% 2014–2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 11,0 % 10,0 % 11,2 % 1,6 o.t. 3,0 % Prehrambna 9,6 % 8,0 % 9,0 % 2,9 o.t. 6,0 % Tekstilna 9,3 % 6,9 % 9,2 % 6,1 o.t. 13,5 % Lesna 11,9 % 7,9 % 10,5 % 4,9 o.t. 10,7 % Papirna 7,7 % 9,4 % 9,8 % -0,3 o.t. -5,5 % Kemična 15,6 % 14,9 % 15,3 % 0,1 o.t. 1,8 % Nekovinska 14,9 % 11,4 % 13,4 % 1,6 o.t. 8,1 % Kovinska 10,0 % 8,9 % 10,7 % 1,1 o.t. 5,3 % 50 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). 51 EBITDA marža je izračun poslovnega presežka v prihodkih. 52 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). 92 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Marža bruto poslovne- Vred. 2018, Ø 2008– Ø 2014– Sprem. CAGR52 v ga presežka51, v % v% 2018, 2018 2018/2008 obdobju v% 2014–2018 Elektro 8,5 % 8,7 % 9,6 % 0,7 o.t. -0,2 % Strojna 9,2 % 8,6 % 9,7 % 1,5 o.t. 1,5 % Druge 14,6 % 12,8 % 15,0 % 0,2 o.t. 7,2 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Investicije Poslovni subjekti so v letu 2018 za investicije v opredmetena osnovna sredstva namenili slabi 2 mrd EUR, kar je bilo 14 % več kot v letu 2008. Bruto investicije v opredmetena osnov- na sredstva zajemajo vse investicije v vsa nova in obstoječa opredmetena osnovna sredstva (zgradbe, stroje in opremo, patente, licence itd.), katerih doba uporabnosti je daljša kakor eno leto, vključno z neproizvedenimi opredmetenimi osnovnimi sredstvi, kakor je zemljišče. Investicije v opredmetena osnovna sredstva se tako krepijo vse od dna v letu 2015 (1,3 mrd EUR) oziroma zgodovinskega dna v letu 2010 (1,1 mrd EUR). V zadnjih enajstih letih (2008– 2018) so družbe za investicije v opredmetena osnovna sredstva letno v povprečju namenile 1,4 mrd EUR. Zadnji dve poslovni leti (2017 in 2018) sta bili investicijsko zelo intenzivni, kar je povezano tako z visoko izkoriščenostjo kapacitet v predelovalnih dejavnostih kot z rastjo razpoložljivega dohodka. Tudi poceni finančni viri blagodejno vplivajo na rast investicij, vendar niso odločilni za njihovo krepitev, saj se delež lastnih sredstev pri investicijah krepi. Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Med vsemi predelovalnimi panogami so v 2018 največ bruto investicij v opredmetena osnov- na sredstva namenili v strojni industriji (24 % celotne predelovalne panoge), sledijo kemična (22 %), kovinska (21 %) ter elektro industrija (10 %), najmanj investicij pa namenijo v tekstil- ni industriji, drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih ter papirni industriji (pod 2 %). Merjeno v prihodkih od prodaje so predelovalne dejavnosti za bruto investicije v opredme- tena osnovna sredstva v 2018 namenile 6,3 % letne prodaje, kar je bilo več kot v 11-letnem SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 93 poslovnem ciklu (5,5 %). Največji delež investicij v prodaji ima v 2018 lesna industrija (9,5 % v 2018, 6,0 % v 11-letnem povprečju), sledijo kemična (7,3 % v 2018, 6,7 % v 11-letnem obdobju), strojna (6,7 % v 2018, 4,9 % v 11-letnem obdobju) ter nekovinska (6,7 % v 2018, 6,6 % v 11-letnem obdobju) in kovinska industrija (nad 6 % v 2018, 5,8 % v 11-letnem obdobju). Bruto investicije v opred- Investi- Ø Inve- Sprem. Sprem. Inve- CAGR53 metena osnovna sredstva cije sticije v% v %/ leto sticije v v ob- 2018, 2008– 2018/2008 2014– prodaji, v dobju mio EUR 2018, 2018 % 2018 2014– mio EUR 2018 PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 1.975 244 14,1 % 10,6 % 6,3 % 5,5 % Prehrambna 118 -13 -9,8 % 17,7 % 4,9 % 4,0 % Tekstilna 38 -7 -14,8 % 22,2 % 4,3 % 4,2 % Lesna 134 25 22,8 % 24,1 % 9,5 % 6,1 % Papirna 60 -58 -49,1 % 6,2 % 4,7 % 4,5 % Kemična 437 10 2,3 % 6,9 % 7,3 % 6,7 % Nekovinska 68 -41 -37,7 % 11,2 % 6,7 % 6,2 % Kovinska 424 77 22,3 % 16,0 % 6,6 % 6,1 % Elektro 204 49 32,1 % 1,9 % 4,6 % 4,9 % Strojna 469 194 70,4 % 10,4 % 6,7 % 5,2 % Druge 24 8 47,5 % 12,1 % 5,0 % 4,1 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Vir: SURS, preračuni Analitika GZS. Bruto domači izdatki za RRD (BIRR) so skupni notranji izdatki za RRD, ki se izvaja na ozemlju Republike Slovenije. Izdatki za RRD, ki jih imajo izvajalci RRD v poslovnem sektor- ju, so v 2018 v predelovalnih dejavnostih znašali 488 mio EUR, kar je za 159 mio EUR več kot 53 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). 94 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 v 2008 oziroma za 49 % več. V zadnjih enajstih letih so izdatki za RRD v poslovnem sektorju znašali 429 mio EUR, v zadnjih petih letih pa 461 mio EUR. V RRD so med predelovalnimi dejavnostmi v 2018 namenili največ izdatkov v kemični indu- striji (212 mio EUR), sledijo elektro (129 mio EUR), strojna (80 mio EUR) ter kovinska in- dustrija (20 mio EUR). V zadnjih desetih letih (2018–2008) so izdatke za RRD najbolj zvišali v kemični in elektro industriji (za 53 mio EUR), sledita strojna (22 mio EUR) in prehrambna industrija (6 mio EUR). RRD v poslovnem Vred. Ø Vred. Vred. Sprem. Ø Vred. CAGR55 v sektorju54 2018, 2008– razlika v% 2014– obdobju mio EUR 2018, 2018– 2018/2008 2018, 2014– mio EUR 2008, mio EUR 2018 mio EUR PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 488,6 428,5 159,3 48,4 % 461,3 1,0 % Prehrambna 7,6 4,7 6,2 444,8 % 6,8 3,5 % Tekstilna 7,0 6,4 2,6 57,4 % 6,3 -2,6 % Lesna 4,2 3,4 2,7 180,1 % 3,9 10,7 % Papirna 4,4 3,1 1,6 58,4 % 3,0 14,6 % Kemična 204,5 191,9 45,6 28,7 % 205,3 1,5 % Nekovinska 4,1 5,9 -0,1 -2,5 % 6,4 -22,2 % Kovinska 20,1 28,5 0,1 0,7 % 24,5 -13,3 % Elektro 128,8 108,8 53,3 70,7 % 127,3 0,3 % Strojna 79,4 69,0 21,5 37,0 % 68,0 2,4 % Druge 4,6 5,1 1,9 69,5 % 5,7 4,8 % Vir: SURS, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. 54 Notranji izdatki za RRD v poslovnem sektorju, po dejavnostih predelovalnih dejavnosti so nekateri podatki zaradi zaupnosti za leti 2017-2018 ocenjeni. 55 Povprečna letna rast (geometrijsko povprečje). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 95 Priloga 2: Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji, EU-27 in skupini primerljivih srednjeevropskih držav (CEE-4) v 2008–2017 Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile višjo bruto maržo kot znaša media- na v državah EU-27 ali mediana v CEE-4 (SLO 28,5 %, EU 23,8 %, CEE-4 22 %). Največje odstopanje bruto marže Slovenije v primerjavi z državami EU beležijo kemična (8,8 o.t.), prehrambna (3 o.t.) in lesna industrija (2,8 o.t.), kjer Slovenija beleži višjo bruto maržo. V primerjavi z državami CEE-4 so bila največja odstopanja v slovenski kemični (10,1 o.t.), ele- ktro (8,2 o.t.) in strojni industriji (6,4 o.t.). Delež bruto investicij v opredmetena osnovna sredstva v primerjavi s prihodki je bil v Sloveniji malenkostno višji kot v državah CEE-4 ter višji kot v državah EU-27 (SLO 5,6 %, EU 4,2 %, CEE-4 5,2 %). K višjemu slovenskemu deležu investicij v prihodkih v primerjavi z EU-27 so pripomogle predvsem lesna, strojna in tekstilna industrija. V primerjavi z drža- vami CEE-4 so odstopanja deleža investicij v prihodkih manjša. Višji deleži so v slovenski lesni, elektro in kemični industriji, za CEE-4 pa zaostajajo v papirni industriji in drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih. Slovenija je v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega v predelovalnih dejavno- stih (44,3 tisoč EUR), kot je znašala mediana v državah CEE-4 (33.000 EUR), ter nižjo, kot je znašala mediana v državah EU-27 (43,7 tisoč EUR). Slovenija je v primerjavi z državami EU- 27 po ustvarjeni dodani vrednosti na zaposlenega najbolj pridobila, oziroma najbolj prehite- va, med drugimi predelovalnimi dejavnostmi, v drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 14.000 EUR), tekstilni (za dobrih 3.000 EUR), prehrambni (slabih 3.000 EUR) in lesni industriji (za dobrih 2.000 EUR dodane vrednosti na zaposlenega). Na drugi strani za EU-27 (mediana) Slovenija najbolj zaostaja v kemični (8.000 EUR), elektro (za dobrih 3.000 EUR) in papir- ni industriji (dobrih 2.000 EUR). Slovenija je v primerjavi z državami CEE-4 po ustvarjeni dodani vrednosti na zaposlenega najbolj pridobila, oziroma najbolj prehiteva, med drugimi predelovalnimi dejavnostmi, v kemični industriji (za 20.000 EUR) ter drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih (za več kot 19.000 EUR), pa tudi v tekstilni, lesni, kovinski in nekovinski indu- striji (med 12-14 tisoč EUR). Slovenija tako po dodani vrednosti na zaposlenega beleži v vseh predelovalnih panogah višjo dodano vrednost kot pa primerljive panoge v CEE-4 (mediana). 96 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Odstopanje Slovenije56 po oddelkih predelovalnih dejavnosti v primerjavi z mediano kazalnika pri skupini srednjeevropskih držav (CEE-4), 2017 Ključne skupine prede- Bruto Investi- EBITDA Strošek DV/ Prihodki/ lovalnih dejavnosti marža cije /pri- marža dela v DV zaposle- zaposle- v o.t. hodkih v o.t. v o.t. nega nega v o.t. PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 6,5 0,5 0,9 7,7 10.839 281 Prehrambna 4,5 -0,8 -0,1 7,4 9.520 19.632 Tekstilna 0,3 0,4 1,6 -5,1 13.932 45.400 Lesna 4,8 1,4 0,9 4,2 12.692 26.859 Papirna -1,6 -4,2 -3,5 12,5 4.677 26.011 Kemična 10,1 0,7 3,8 10,5 20.364 -25.364 Nekovinska 3,0 -1,8 -1,0 4,8 11.711 26.965 Kovinska 2,5 0,4 -0,4 5,9 12.137 34.206 Elektro 8,2 0,8 2,8 3,1 10.477 -22.085 Strojna 6,4 0,2 0,1 8,3 6.296 -31.765 Druge 5,2 -2,7 4,0 -7,4 19.347 36.315 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v letu 2017 beležile višji strošek dela v dodani vred- nosti (59,1 %), kot znaša mediana v državah EU-27 (56,8 %) oziroma mediana v CEE-4 (51,3 %). Odstopanje Slovenije glede na CEE-4 je bilo največje v papirni in kemični industriji, kjer je bil strošek dela v dodani vrednosti v Sloveniji višji za več kot 10 o.t., kakor tudi v strojni, prehrambni in kovinski industriji (za več kot 6 o.t.). Le v tekstilni industriji in drugih prede- lovalnih dejavnostih je bil strošek dela v dodani vrednosti v Sloveniji nižji, kot znaša v CEE-4. V primerjavi z državami EU-27 je bil strošek dela v dodani vrednosti višji le v prehrambni, kemični in papirni industriji, medtem ko je bil v ostalih panogah nižji. Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile bistveno nižje prihodke na zaposlenega kot v EU-27 ter malenkost višje, kot znaša v CEE-4 (SLO 152.000 EUR, EU-27 190.000 EUR, CEE-4 152.000 EUR). V primerjavi z EU-27 so prihodki na zaposlenega v Sloveniji najbolj zaostajali v kemični (za 57.009 EUR), elektro (za 46.000 EUR), strojni (32.000 EUR) in neko- vinski industriji (23.000 EUR). Le v drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih so bili v Sloveniji višji kot v EU-27. V primerjavi s CEE-4 so prihodki na zaposlenega v predelovalnih dejavnostih najbolj zaostajali v strojni in kemični industriji (za 31 oziroma za 25 tisoč EUR). Slovenija je po prihodkih na zaposlenega najbolj prehitevala CEE-4 v tekstilni (45.000 EUR), drugi predelovalni (36.000 EUR) in kovinski industriji (34.000 EUR). 56 Za koliko je vrednost kazalnika v Sloveniji višja od mediane kazalnika držav srednjeevropske skupine (CEE-4). SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 97 Odstopanje Slovenije57 po oddelkih predelovalnih dejavnosti v primerjavi z mediano kazalnika pri EU-27, 2017 Ključne skupine prede- Bruto Investi- EBITDA Strošek DV/ Prihodki/ lovalnih dejavnosti marža cije /pri- marža dela v DV zaposle- zaposle- v o. t.58 hodkih v o. t.59 v o. t. nega nega v o. t. PREDEL. DEJ. SKUPAJ 4,7 1,5 1,5 2,3 -379 -38.048 Prehrambna 3,0 0,0 0,4 3,8 2.714 -4.797 Tekstilna -0,1 2,0 1,8 -6,9 3.316 -1.271 Lesna 2,8 2,4 0,8 0,0 2.096 0 Papirna -2,6 -2,7 -2,4 2,0 -2.310 0 Kemična 8,8 1,6 4,0 2,6 -7.668 -56.751 Nekovinska 2,1 -0,3 1,7 -4,7 -1.538 -23.168 Kovinska 0,0 1,6 0,5 -0,7 0 -1.113 Elektro -0,8 1,6 0,8 -0,3 -3.419 -45.981 Strojna 0,2 2,1 0,6 -2,1 0 -32.280 Druge 2,5 0,3 4,7 -9,3 13.999 30.145 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. Delež izdatkov za RRD poslovnega sektorja v prodaji je v Sloveniji v 2017 znašal 1,5 %, kar je več, kot znaša mediana EU-23 (0,7 %) ter mediana CEE-4 (0,5 %). Podobna dinamika je beležena tudi v obdobju 2008–2017, kjer delež izdatkov za raziskave in razvoj poslovnega sektorja v prodaji v Sloveniji znaša 1,7 %, v EU-23 0,6 % in v CEE-4 0,4 %. V 2017 je med EU državami najvišji delež izdatkov za RRD poslovnega sektorja v prodaji znašal na Švedskem 3,3 %, Danskem 2,6 %, v Avstriji in Nemčiji 2,7 %. Delež izdatkov za RRD v celotnem poslovnem sektorju v prihodkih, v % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 EU-23 0,6 % 0,6 % 0,5 % 0,7 % 0,7 % 0,6 % 0,7 % 0,7 % 0,6 % 0,7 % n. p. (mediana) CEE-4 0,3 % 0,3 % 0,4 % 0,3 % 0,4 % 0,4 % 0,4 % 0,4 % 0,4 % 0,5 % n. p. (mediana) Slovenija 1,3 % 1,6 % 1,7 % 1,8 % 1,8 % 2,0 % 1,8 % 1,8 % 1,7 % 1,5 % 1,6 % Vir: Eurostat, preračuni Analitika GZS. 57 Za koliko je vrednost kazalnika v Sloveniji višja od mediane kazalnika držav EU-27. 58 Izračun dodane vrednosti v prihodkih. 59 EBITDA marža je izračun poslovnega presežka v prihodkih. 98 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile bistveno nižje prihodke na zaposlenega kot v EU-27 (mediana) ter malenkost višje kot v CEE-4 (mediana). Predelovalna dejavnost je v Sloveniji ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (43,3 tisoč EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (32,5 tisoč EUR) ter nekoliko nižjo, kot znaša mediana držav EU-27 (43,7 tisoč EUR). Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile višjo bruto maržo, kot znaša mediana v državah EU-27 ter mediana v CEE-4 (SLO 28,5 %, EU 23,8 %, CEE-4 22 %). Delež bruto investicij v opredmetena osnovna sredstva v primerjavi s prihodki je bil nekoliko višji kot v državah CEE-4 ter višji kot v državah EU-27 (SLO 5,6 %, EU 4,2 %, CEE-4 5,2 %). Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji so v 2017 beležile višji strošek dela v dodani vrednosti, kot znaša mediana v državah EU-27 (60,5 %) oziroma v CEE-4 (50,7 %). Predelovalne dejavnosti v Sloveniji v 2017 so beležile nekoliko višjo EBITDA maržo (poslovni presežek/prihodkih), kot znaša mediana v državah EU-27 ter mediana skupine srednjeevropskih držav CEE-4 (SLO 11,7 %, EU-27 10,2 %, CEE-4 10,8 %). V 10-letnem obdobju (2008–2017) so najvišjo EBITDA maržo beležile države CEE-4 (mediano), ki je bila višja od zabeležene v Sloveniji. Predelovalne dejavnosti EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 23,8 % 22,0 % 28,5 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 20,8 % 21,5 % 27,1 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 4,2 % 5,2 % 5,6 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 3,8 % 4,8 % 5,4 % EBITDA marža 2017 10,2 % 10,8 % 11,7 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 9,2 % 10,6 % 10,0 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 56,8 % 51,3 % 59,1 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 48,6 % 50,7 % 63,0 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 43.703 32.485 43.324 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 40.244 29.453 35.596 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 190.061 151.732 152.013 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 193.828 136.875 131.390 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V prehrambni industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (35.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (25.000 EUR) ter mediana v državah EU- 27 (32.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v prehrambni industriji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in nižja od mediane EU-27. Prehrambna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 20,3 % 18,8 % 23,3 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 20,6 % 18,9 % 22,0 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 4,4 % 5,2 % 4,4 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 3,9 % 4,2 % 4,1 % EBITDA marža 2017 8,4 % 8,9 % 8,8 % SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 99 Prehrambna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 8,4 % 8,8 % 7,9 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 58,5 % 54,9 % 62,3 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 57,0 % 53,3 % 64,1 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 31.685 24.879 34.399 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 34.876 22.691 30.891 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 152.605 128.176 147.808 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 169.683 120.100 140.322 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V tekstilni industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (28.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (14.000 EUR) ter mediana v državah EU-27 (24.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v tekstilni industriji v Sloveniji višja tako od mediane CEE-4 kot EU-27. Tekstilna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 30,4 % 30,0 % 30,3 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 30,0 % 30,0 % 29,6 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 3,0 % 4,6 % 5,0 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 3,8 % 4,9 % 3,9 % EBITDA marža 2017 9,3 % 9,4 % 11,1 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 8,9 % 10,1 % 6,6 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 70,5 % 68,7 % 63,5 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 73,3 % 66,3 % 77,8 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 24.906 14.290 28.222 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 17.860 13.560 20.010 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 94.331 47.661 93.060 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 59.504 45.230 67.602 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V lesni industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (31.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (19.000 EUR) ter v državah EU-27 (29.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v lesni industriji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in nižja od mediane EU-27. Lesna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 27,0 % 25,0 % 29,8 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 29,4 % 25,2 % 29,1 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 4,5 % 5,5 % 6,9 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 4,5 % 5,9 % 5,7 % EBITDA marža 2017 9,9 % 9,7 % 10,6 % 100 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Lesna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 8,8 % 11,5 % 7,6 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 64,3 % 60,1 % 64,3 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 53,8 % 54,5 % 73,9 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 29.283 18.687 31.379 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 31.509 19.179 23.213 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 105.127 78.268 105.127 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 107.325 76.121 79.670 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V papirni industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (40.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (35.000 EUR) ter nižjo, kot znaša media- na v državah EU-27 (42.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposlene- ga v papirni industriji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in nižja od mediane EU-27. Papirna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 28,0 % 27,0 % 25,4 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 29,4 % 25,4 % 25,6 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 6,9 % 8,4 % 4,2 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 5,8 % 7,6 % 5,4 % EBITDA marža 2017 12,3 % 13,4 % 9,9 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 10,7 % 12,2 % 9,6 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 58,9 % 48,4 % 60,9 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 61,2 % 52,1 % 62,6 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 42.029 35.043 39.719 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 28.623 26.303 34.413 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 156.277 130.266 156.277 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 97.229 103.389 134.671 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V kemični industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlene- ga (80.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (42.000 EUR) ter v državah EU-27 (70.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v kemični indu- striji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in mediane EU-27. Kemična industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 24,3 % 23,1 % 33,2 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 19,0 % 20,4 % 31,4 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 5,1 % 6,1 % 6,7 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 4,3 % 4,6 % 6,7 % EBITDA marža 2017 12,1 % 12,3 % 16,1 % SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 101 Kemična industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 10,2 % 12,3 % 15,0 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 48,9 % 40,9 % 51,5 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 42,5 % 39,8 % 52,5 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 70.364 42.331 62.696 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 67.452 43.443 57.548 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 244.512 213.125 187.761 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 354.357 213.357 183.034 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V nekovinski industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (45.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (33.000 EUR) ter nižjo, kot znaša medi- ana v državah EU-27 (47.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposle- nega v nekovinski industriji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in nižja od mediane EU-27. Nekovinska industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 30,9 % 30,1 % 33,0 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 30,9 % 31,4 % 29,8 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 5,1 % 6,6 % 4,8 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 6,1 % 6,9 % 6,6 % EBITDA marža 2017 13,0 % 15,7 % 14,7 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 12,5 % 15,2 % 11,1 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 60,1 % 50,6 % 55,4 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 54,3 % 51,6 % 62,8 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 46.867 33.618 45.329 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 43.996 30.707 35.629 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 160.356 110.223 137.188 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 142.197 97.885 119.399 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V kovinski industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (41.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (29.000 EUR) ter enako, kot znaša me- diana v državah EU-27 (41.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je bila dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v kovinski industriji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in nižja od mediane EU-27. Kovinska industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, medi- Slovenija ana Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 28,1 % 25,7 % 28,1 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 26,2 % 24,7 % 26,2 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 4,3 % 5,5 % 5,8 % 102 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Kovinska industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, medi- Slovenija ana Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 5,3 % 5,5 % 5,7 % EBITDA marža 2017 10,5 % 11,4 % 11,0 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 8,9 % 10,4 % 9,1 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 61,5 % 54,9 % 60,8 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 58,0 % 58,3 % 65,4 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 40.664 28.527 40.664 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 31.181 25.213 33.110 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 145.668 110.349 144.555 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 119.071 102.042 126.573 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V elektro industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (41.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (31.000 EUR) ter nižjo. kot znaša media- na v državah EU-27 (45.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposlene- ga v elektro industriji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in nižja od mediane EU-27. Elektro industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 27,1 % 18,0 % 26,2 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 23,7 % 16,5 % 26,3 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 3,3 % 4,0 % 4,9 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 3,0 % 2,9 % 4,9 % EBITDA marža 2017 9,3 % 7,3 % 10,1 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 7,6 % 7,6 % 9,0 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 61,8 % 58,3 % 61,5 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 52,7 % 53,3 % 65,9 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 45.038 31.143 41.619 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 54.585 28.315 34.322 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 204.605 180.710 158.625 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 230.548 171.494 130.402 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V strojni industriji je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (44.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (37.000 EUR) ter enako, kot znaša medi- ana v državah EU-27 (44.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposle- nega v strojni industriji v Sloveniji višja od mediane CEE-4 in nižja od mediane EU-27. Strojna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 26,4 % 20,3 % 26,6 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 19,7 % 22,2 % 25,0 % SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 103 Strojna industrija EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Investicije/prihodkih 2017 3,5 % 5,4 % 5,6 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 3,5 % 4,8 % 4,8 % EBITDA marža 2017 9,6 % 10,1 % 10,2 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 7,0 % 11,3 % 8,7 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 63,8 % 53,4 % 61,7 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 59,3 % 48,3 % 65,4 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 43.670 37.374 43.670 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 45.308 35.744 36.204 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 196.400 195.885 164.119 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 229.743 161.338 144.915 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. V drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih je Slovenija v 2017 ustvarila višjo dodano vrednost na zaposlenega (42.000 EUR), kot znaša mediana v državah CEE-4 (23.000 EUR) ter mediana v državah EU-27 (28.000 EUR). V obdobju 2008–2017 je dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v drugih predelovalnih dejavnostih v Sloveniji višja tako od mediane CEE-4 kot EU-27. Druge pred. dej. EU-27, mediana CEE-4, mediana Slovenija Bruto marža (DV/prih.) 2017 35,5 % 32,8 % 38,0 % Bruto marža (DV/prih.) Ø 2008–2017 30,4 % 34,0 % 33,7 % Investicije/prihodkih 2017 4,4 % 7,4 % 4,7 % Investicije/prihodkih Ø 2008–2017 4,9 % 7,6 % 5,0 % EBITDA marža 2017 13,3 % 13,9 % 18,0 % EBITDA marža Ø 2008–2017 11,2 % 14,5 % 13,0 % Strošek dela v DV 2017 62,0 % 60,0 % 52,6 % Strošek dela v DV Ø 2008–2017 66,8 % 53,9 % 61,5 % DV/zaposlenega 2017 27.981 22.633 41.979 DV/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 24.223 21.470 30.183 Prihodki/zaposlenega 2017 80.362 74.193 110.508 Prihodki/zaposlenega Ø 2008–2017 79.707 63.171 89.558 Vir: Eurostat, strukturna statistika podjetij, preračuni Analitika GZS. 104 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Priloga 3: Megatrendi Megatrendi Grožnje Priložnosti Tehnološki megatrendi Neustrezen regulativni pristop Kombinacija množične proizvo- (avtomatizacija, zasledenje tehnološkemu napredku dnje in prilagodljivosti uporabe Integracija predmetov insocialne zahteve (npr. v zvezi s napredne tehnologije in objektov, podat- pravili o varstvu podatkov, kiber- Večja vključenost stranke v proi- kovno usmerjen svet, netskivarnosti…) zvodne procese kibernetska varnost in Nizka stopnja kibernetske varnosti blokchain) Razvoj novih trgov (zlasti z upora- (tveganje za operacije in inovacije) bo IKT) Omejena družbena sprejemljivost Pojav novih zaposlitvenih mož- tehnoloških sprememb nosti Omejena okoljska trajnost Zmanjšanje tveganja za pomanjka- Omejena interoperabilnost in nje delovne sile v okviru staranja standardi prebivalstva (robotizacija) Omejena integracija različnih Povečana produktivnost tehnologij v poslovne procese Možnost ponovnega uvajanja indu- Tehnološka brezposelnost (zlasti v strijskih dejavnosti v razvite države sektorjih, kot je transport) (npr. uporaba 3D tiskanja) Spreminjanje zahtevglede spret- nosti in težave zapresežne delavce Socialno-politični Politične napetosti (domača in Povečanje poslovnih priložnosti, megatrendi mednarodna raven) povezanih s staranjem prebivalstva (globalizacija in ge- Nasprotovanje migracijam Povečanje poslovnih priložnosti v opolitika ter demo- državah v razvoju (rast prebivalstva grafski premiki) Trgovinska vojna, stopnjevanje in gospodarski razvoj) protekcionizma Uspešno vključevanje migrantov in Povečana nelojalna konkurenca starejših delavcev v delovno silo (npr.damping) (spreminjanje kadrov, izobraževa- Povečana globalna konkurenca in nje in usposabljanje) njene negativne posledice (npr. zaprtje tradicionalnih industrij) Povečanje talentov na globalni rav- ni (naraščajoče in bolj izobraženo Neuspešna prilagoditev sistemov prebivalstvo) zdravstvenega in socialnega varstva (kontekst staranja prebivalstva) Pojavnovega / bolj uravnoteženega modela globalizacije Pomanjkanje delovne sile zaradi staranja prebivalstva Pojav krajših / regionalnih in / ali krožnih vrednostnih verig Okoljski škodljivi učinki globaliza- cije in rasti prebivalstva SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 105 Okoljsko in pametno- Neustrezen regulativni pristop Pojav novih poslovnih modelov gospodarstvo (npr.cilji glede recikliranja, okolj- (krožno gospodarstvo, integracija- (zeleno in krožno go- ska pravila,varnostna pravila za IKT v mestih in mobilnosti) spodarstvo, urbaniza- avtonomna vozila…) Razvoj novih sektorjev s poten- cija, pametna mesta in Inercija trenutnih ekonomskih cialnimi koristmi za prve v poslu pametna mobilnost) modelov, pomanjkanje družbene (zeleno gospodarstvo, pametna sprejemljivosti (npr. glede poveča- mesta in mobilnost…) nje davkov na gorivo ali ogljik) Vir: Avtorji študije: »How to tackle challenges in a future-oriented EU industrial strategy« na osnovi European Obser- vatory/ of Clusters and Industrial Change (2019). 106 SLOVENSKA INDUSTRIJSKA STRATEGIJA 2021–2030 Number: 31000-2/2021-3 Date: 24 June 2021 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Table of Contents Introduction 113 1. INTRODUCTION 115 2. PURPOSE, VISION, INDICATORS AND ACTION FRAMEWORK 118

2.1 — Purpose 120

2.1. Purpose 120

2.2 — Vision and mission 121

2.2. Vision and mission 121

2.3 — Objectives and indicators 122

2.3. Objectives and indicators 122

2.4 — The scope of measures and institutional framework 126

2.4. The scope of measures and institutional framework 126 3. PROCESSING ACTIVITIES IN SLOVENIA AND EU 127

3.1 — Processing activities in Slovenia in 2008–2018 127

3.1. Processing activities in Slovenia in 2008–2018 127

3.2 — Processing activities in Slovenia, EU-27 and CEE-4 in 2008–2017 129

3.2. Processing activities in Slovenia, EU-27 and CEE-4 in 2008–2017 129

3.3 — European Framework 130

3.3. European Framework 130

3.4 — Forecast 2021–2030 136

3.4. Forecast 2021–2030 136 4. GREEN DEVELOPMENT 143

4.1 — Transition to a low-carbon circular economy 144

4.1. Transition to a low-carbon circular economy 144

4.2 — Decarbonisation of energy intensive industry 147

4.2. Decarbonisation of energy intensive industry 147

4.3 — Sustainable mobility 149

4.3. Sustainable mobility 149

4.4 — Industry based on wood and other natural renewable materials 149

4.4. Industry based on wood and other natural renewable materials 149 5. CREATIVE DEVELOPMENT 153

5.1 — Concern for a creative, entrepreneurial and innovation support environment 154

5.1. Concern for a creative, entrepreneurial and innovation support environment 154

5.2 — Promotion of creativity, entrepreneurship and innovation 156

5.2. Promotion of creativity, entrepreneurship and innovation 156

5.3 — Support to start-up, growth, development and preservation of enterprises 157

5.3. Support to start-up, growth, development and preservation of enterprises 157

5.4 — Strengthening non-technological innovation 158

5.4. Strengthening non-technological innovation 158 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 111 6. SMART DEVELOPMENT 159

6.1 — Digitalisation and smart solution strengthening 160

6.1. Digitalisation and smart solution strengthening 160

6.2 — Promoting the development, research and innovation cycle 162

6.2. Promoting the development, research and innovation cycle 162

6.3 — Networking and cooperation 162

6.3. Networking and cooperation 162

6.4 — Strengthening and developing new competences, re-qualification,

6.4. Strengthening and developing new competences, re-qualification, new forms of work 163

6.5 — Internationalisation 165

6.5. Internationalisation 165 7. GUIDELINES FOR CONNECTED GREEN, CREATIVE AND SMART DEVELOPMENT 166 8. REVIEW OF CONTRIBUTIONS BY INDIVIDUAL SETS OF MEASURES TO INDIVIDUAL GOALS 173 9. CONCLUSION 176 LIST OF MOST COMMONLY USED ABBREVIATIONS 177 APPENDICES 179 112 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Introduction Photo: Nebojša Tejić Dear Sir/Madam, The new Slovenian Industrial Strategy 2021-2030, aligned with the European Industrial Strat- egy, prepares us for the future. The situation related to the coronavirus pandemic, which we have faced and are still facing today, has created an opportunity to reflect on WHERE we are, WHAT we are doing, and, above all, WHERE we want to be and WHERE we want to get to. Our economy and the global economy are changing before our eyes, faster than ever before. Globalization, technological progress, and innovation are driving this wheel of development. Old market players are disappearing; new ones are emerging. Trade flows are changing. Industry must constantly adapt, transform itself to remain competitive. The fact is that all mechanisms must be used to preserve the technological competencies we have and to suc- cessfully cope with and shape new global challenges and developments. This strategy is based on the shared vision for the development of the European Union set out in the European Green Deal, which guides countries towards a radical transformation of their economies and societies to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This is the European Union’s new long-term growth strategy, which emphasizes a modern, competitive, and re- source-efficient economy. Growth and competitiveness are still at the forefront, but with an important emphasis: economic growth must be decoupled from resource use and the shift towards a circular economy system. Furthermore, the strategy stresses the importance of creativity and innovation, which are key to the future development of the economy. The aim is to foster a supportive environment for creativity, entrepreneurship, and innovation, to strengthen innovation potential and increase competitiveness. Attention is also paid to the start-up, growth, development, and retention of promising small and medium-sized enterprises. The strategy also focuses on the digital transformation of the economy through the devel- opment and deployment of new smart technologies. In this respect, fostering the R&D and SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 113 innovation cycle, networking and integration, competence development, and international- ization of business are key. In summary, the vision of this document is to pave the way for green, creative, and smart development. On the basis of these development guidelines, we will formulate measures to support the Slovenian industry in its further progress, revitalization, or transformation. The Industrial Strategy aims to push the boundaries of development and to maintain or gain a competitive edge in terms of innovation and competitiveness compared to the rest of the world. We also want to become more self-sufficient, increase strategic autonomy and strengthen value chains, in line with EU industrial policy. We have set ourselves the goal of achieving labor productivity, measured in value-added per employee, of €66,000 by 2030. The European Union has long recognized the principle of “Think small first”, which means that micro-businesses, which do not have many resources to adapt to change, should be the first to be considered when adopting legislation. With this Industrial Strategy, we want to add the principle of “Think Green, Creative and Smart first”, which means that we want every ac- tion, every development of a new product, service or business model, every start-up of a new business, every new investment, to think first about how and in what ways we can contribute to green, creative and smart development. In this way, we will strengthen the position and international competitiveness of the industry and ensure that it remains a vital part of the Slovenian economy. So let’s go green, creative, and smart! Ljubljana, December 2021 Zdravko Počivalšek, Minister of Economic Development and Technology 114 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 1. INTRODUCTION Through export orientation and innovation, industry represents the foundations of welfare and the development of Slovenia and is the essential part of the country’s economy. There- fore, it needs proper attention. In the narrow sense, industry refers to the manufacturing and processing activities that employ over 201,722 people in 19,671 companies in Slovenia. Slovenian processing activity in 2019 contributed a total of 23.2% to the added value of the economy, ranking it in third place in the EU-27, behind Ireland and the Czech Republic. The EU-27 average is 16.7%. Slovenian processing companies create almost one third of total sales and two thirds of total exports. Processing activities contribute to 75% of the invest- ments in R&D in the business sector. More than one fourth of service activities are connected to industry. The borders between manufacturing and services have become blurred and the interaction between services and manufacturing is increasing in all branches. Therefore, this Industrial Strategy shows a wider view of the industry and includes industry-related services. The Industrial Strategy connects various industrial chains, large enterprises, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, including start-ups (hereinafter referred to as SMEs), aca- demic and research institutes and other stakeholders. More than ten employees work in an average industrial unit. On the other hand, there are some large enterprises that employ over a thousand workers. The co-habitation of small and large enterprises in the economy is the precondition for success. Their cooperation with the research sphere and the creative and cultural sector (CCS) is also very important. The main engine of growth is creativity, research, development and innovation. One of the key tasks of this strategy is to create the conditions for connecting various stakeholders and to learn about as well as derive new in- novative projects that expand the limits of development. New technologies, the life cycle of products, the necessity of exploiting local materials and raw materials from waste as well as increasing global competition enhance the importance of innovation not only for the future development of enterprises, but also for their long-term survival. Due to the interaction and co-dependence of those challenges, we need to look for systemic solutions in the direction of comparative advantages of Slovenia. Industry in Slovenia has constantly changed through time: from labour-intensive to tech- nology-intensive, from raw material processing to production of exacting high technology products, from less demanding markets to more demanding ones, from large emission-in- tensive factories to the modern low-carbon smart factories of the future, thereby enabling technological progress, including digitalisation. This transformation is far from complete. Industry in Europe is experiencing profound changes in the direction of a green and digital transformation and is striving to regain technological sovereignty and autonomy. Slovenia has to provide for a new developmental breakthrough that will enable its industry to preserve its position as the essential part of the SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 115 economy. This breakthrough will, as shown in the strategy, be based on green, creative and smart development. Trends such as digitalisation and the transfer to a low-carbon circu- lar economy are profoundly changing the environment and the way in which the economy works. They bring many opportunities but also challenges that we need to face. The rhythm of development set by new technologies and social challenges such as globalisation, the fight against climate change, the need for an effective use of raw materials, demographic change and health challenges, is becoming faster and faster. Considering the expected trend in the increase of prices of raw materials and energy sources, there must be a stimulation of those economy sectors that in the long-term will demand fewer raw materials, regardless of wheth- er they originate from renewable or non-renewable sources, i.e. to generate (new) added value. The conditions that will allow the existing economic systems to address the required changes for achieving the green and digital transition must be introduced. The industry should follow and co-create trends and be constantly updated to remain com- petitive and boost productivity. This also applies to traditional industries that are being digi- talised, becoming “smart” and focussing on lowering the environmental footprint. If we want to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and transform into a low-carbon circular economy, the habits of consumers must be changed, but this cannot be achieved without the proactive role of industry and the proper state policies. This will consequently contribute to the increase of social responsibility and the international reputation of Slovenian enterprises. The Slovenian Industrial Strategy will contribute to the achievement of the global sustainable development objectives that have been determined in the 2030 Agenda. The aim is to form a sustainable industrial strategy that is harmonised with the Sloveni- an Smart Specialisation Strategy (S4), the European Green Deal and other developmental guidelines, to stimulate innovative solutions, the introduction of modern technologies, dig- ital transformation of the economy and the transition to a low-carbon circular economy. It’s time for a new industrial strategy that will consider the comparative advantages of Slovenia and the changed situation in the world, a result of the increasing challenges involved in the management of climate change and the pandemic, including the need to strengthen techno- logical sovereignty and autonomy. The measures should enable the industry to more easily manage and adapt to change as well as to technological progress, which is a key performance factor in the 21st century. A proactive and harmonised approach of the country and enterprises, public research and education institutions as well as other stakeholders is important. With a diligent design of new products that considers circular and digital aspects, with new sustainable technologies, the usage of domestic renewable raw materials, new jobs and re-qualification, change must be envisaged, adapted to and managed. The challenge is to establish a system that will enable constant learning and adaptation to change. Innovation, investment and strengthening of acquired knowledge and competences as well the development of new ones are of significant importance. The EU Industrial Strategy, presented by the European Commission in 2020 and updated in 2021, is putting forth the strengthening of the single market, which is the basis for the EU’s competitiveness in the global market. The objective of the updated industrial strategy is to strengthen Europe’s leading role as a global industrial force to ensure competitive advantage in digital and green technologies. The long-term EU strategic guideline is, in accordance 116 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 with the European Green Deal, to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 by acquiring a reliable supply of raw materials and clean as well as affordable energy. Digital technologies, following the industry’s image and method of operation, have been emphasised and they enable the transition to a low-carbon circular economy. Digitalisation is the driving force of a circular economy. Digital technologies enable new business models and enable industry to become more productive, ensure workers acquire new skills and support the decarbonisation of our economy. The digital sector will also contribute to the realisation of the European Green Deal, i.e. as a source of clean technological solutions and by reducing its carbon footprint. The economy’s digital transformation is horizontal with regard to all other activities and all three developmental areas of this strategy, because it enables the realisation of the com- mitments regarding a low-carbon circular economy and creative, innovative and develop- ment-oriented smart industry. With the aim to generate and strengthen the EU single market as well as to guarantee the competitiveness of Slovenian enterprises in the European and global arena, Slovenia is creat- ing the national industrial strategy by considering the guidelines of the EU Industrial Strate- gy and other relevant documents. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 117 2. PURPOSE, VISION, INDICATORS AND ACTION FRAMEWORK In 2013, the Government of the Republic of Slovenia adopted the “Slovenian Industrial Pol- icy – SIP” document that set the priorities of the development of the industry and economy for the 2014–2020 period. It contained guidelines to enhance business environment compet- itiveness, to strengthen the entrepreneurship and innovation abilities of the economy as an effective response to social challenges and activities for the sustainable development of Slo- venian industry. By improving the business environment, supporting entrepreneurship and innovations, developing propulsive technological and industrial sectors able to react to social challenges, SIP’s vision in the past period was to create conditions for the continuous restruc- turing of existing industry into an energy, resource, environmentally and socially sustainable industry of knowledge and innovations capable of creating new, long-term and quality jobs and being strongly integrated into international business flows. We estimate that the realisation of the Slovenian Industrial Policy was partially successful because it was greatly connected to the EU 2014-2020 financial perspective funds and con- ditioned with the good cooperation of all line ministries. We have found that a systemat- ic approach and the coordination of the measures that arise from the provided guidelines was lacking. We have also found that the strategy must be upgraded with new know-how and guidelines and must accelerate its implementation in practice. Special emphasis will be placed on the coordination of the economy, knowledge institutions and all ministries within the scope of innovation activity and in cooperation with the Research and Innovation Strate- gy. Strong connection to the priority areas of the Slovenian Smart Specialisation Strategy (S4) will also be emphasised. Additional coordination to prepare measures between ministries will be needed as their measures are supplemented and upgraded. Only such coordination along with the implementation of the industrial strategy will successfully identify the op- portunities for Slovenia’s inclusion in global value chains as well as strengthen the strategic autonomy of the Slovenian and EU economy. The evaluation of the operation of Strategic Development and Innovation Partnerships (SDIP1 shows that they should be more intensive- ly included in the formation of industrial and research policy. Further strengthening of the support environment is important from this aspect, which has been emphasised within the “Creative Development” section. This Slovenian Industrial Strategy for the period to 2030 represents an upgrade in accord- ance with the current European and domestic strategic documents and guidelines with the common denominator “green, creative and smart development”. The key objective still re- 1 Interim monitoring and evaluation of the operation of SDIP in the 2017–2019 period, IER, FDV, FM UP, August 2019. 118 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 mains to strengthen the competitiveness, productivity and innovation of the economy, which is reflected in a larger proportion of high technology products and high added value services, greater inclusion in international value chains and better positioning of Slovenian enterprises within these value chains. By stimulating a green and digital transformation, the Slovenian Industrial Strategy will con- tribute to the implementation of the European Green Deal and Slovenia’s Recovery and Re- silience Plan after the COVID-19 Pandemic in accordance with EU recommendations and measures in this area.2 Figure 1: Inclusion of SIS into development planning documents Research and EU Cohesion Policy Innovation Strategy Smart Specialisation Recovery and Strategy S4 Resilience Plan Slovenian Development Strategy Horizon, InvestEU and Digital Slovenia SDS 2030 other programmes Rural Development NEPN 2030 Programme Long-term Climate RS Budget Strategy Slovennian Industrial Strategy SIS MGRT financial initiatives Action implementation programmes in programme individual areas Development programmes of other policies Source: Ministry of Economic Development and Technology. 2 Recommendation of the EU Council COM (2020) 524 final and Recommendation of the EC COM (2020) 456 final, both of 27 May 2020. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 119

2.1 — Purpose

2.1. Purpose The purpose of the Slovenian Industrial Strategy (hereinafter referred to as the SIS) is to set the guidelines for future development of Slovenian industry in the wider context for the period from 2021 to 2030. In the wider context, industry also includes related services. The borders between industry and services are becoming blurred. The areas that were separated before are now intertwining, and the services in value chains are creating greater added value for production processes. Various knowledge-based services are very important here because they impact the efficiency and competitiveness of the entire economy (e.g. development, de- sign, digital and information services). Services are contributing a large share of added value to exports of industrial products (up to 50%). Industrial policy has been strengthening in the past few decades in the developed countries. The systemic approach to industrial policy is strengthening, thus emphasising the generation of markets (e.g. for low-carbon technologies and products), following strategic objectives and connecting structures, institutions and policies. As with the entire European Union, Slovenia faces many challenges: technological change, digitalisation, social and political change, migrations, globalisation, accumulation of (non-processed) waste, aggravated access to strategic raw materials, climate change, loss of biodiversity and health-related challenges. All these challenges are a threat and an opportu- nity, depending on how successfully we face them. Slovenia needs a strong industrial base capable of facing international competition as well as the above-mentioned challenges. The European Observatory for Clusters and Industrial Change has determined ten mega trends that are very important for industrial development in Europe3. We would also like to emphasise the aspect of the uncertainty of predicting future development, which has been revealed by a global crisis, i.e. the current one connected to the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need for a mechanism to increase the speed and responsiveness to such challenges. The mega trends discussed in the European Observatory for Clusters and Industrial Change study are categorised in three categories that carry special threats and opportunities (Appendix 3): 1. Technological mega trends including automation, integration of subjects and objects, quantum technology, cyber security. 2. Socio-political mega trends that comprise globalisation, geopolitics and demographic movements. 3. Mega trends in the environmental and smart economy that are more specific to the EU context, including green and circular economy, urbanisation and smart cities as well as smart mobility. In accordance with the trends and challenges, the SIS addresses: 1. The horizontal aspect of industrial policy and the need to improve framework conditions and business environment; 3 Source: “How to tackle challenges in a future-oriented EU industrial strategy” on the basis of the European Observatory for Clusters and Industrial Change (2019). 120 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 2. A themed approach that is a response to social challenges (managing climate change, pollution, transition to a low-carbon circular economy, digital transformation); 3. The strengthening of strategic value chains, especially in the priority areas of the Slove- nian Smart Specialisation Strategy (S4) and 4. The increase of resilience and responsiveness to external factors brought by global mega trends and unexpected disturbances (i.e. black swans).

2.2 — Vision and mission

2.2. Vision and mission Vision: Slovenian industry is green, creative and smart. Figure 2: The presentation of how these three areas are interconnected green creative smart Green, creative and smart development are interconnected and supplemented. We will not achieve the transition to a low-carbon circular economy without understanding the compa- rable advantages in the area of raw materials, introducing a systemic approach and without a high rate of creativity and smart solution support brought by digitalisation. Therefore, the development guidelines must be considered and also implemented through coordina- tion. Each of the implementing solutions that will be designed on the basis of the proposed strategy will rationally include all three components and aspects thus contributing to the achievement of synergy effects and a more effective spending of public and private sources. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 121 Mission: With a balanced promotion of all three components of sustainable development (society, environment, economy), the Slovenian Industrial Strategy will ensure the competitiveness of the economy and create the conditions for industrial restruc- turing by strengthening knowledge, creativity and innovation for new and more quality jobs with greater added value and a transition to a green, creative and smart economy.

2.3 — Objectives and indicators

2.3. Objectives and indicators The indicators below are value objectives that reflect the attainable target values for 2030. Umbrella indicator Labour productivity, measured with added value per employee as per working hours, is the key umbrella indicator, on the basis of which we will monitor the success of the Slovenian In- dustrial Strategy. It reflects the financial results of operation and all supporting activities. At the level of processing activities as a whole, after a 3.7-percent growth in labour productivity in the 2009–2018 period, it will stagnate in the 2019–2020 period due to the country’s meas- ures to protect jobs. In the subsequent 10-year period, we expect an above average growth of this indicator caused by the growing automation and digitalisation of operation, which will be the necessary precondition to maintain Slovenian export competitiveness. By 2030, labour productivity, measured by added value per employee, will have achieved EUR 66,000. In most business sector activities, the growth in productivity in the past year was comparable or higher than the EU average, but there is a delay in construction and ICT services. Consid- ering the fact that digital transformation is one of the key strategy’s elements, productivity is lagging behind in this sector, so we should pay special attention to it (UMAR, PoR 2020). 2018 2020 2030 2019–2020, 2021–2030 average growth evaluation Labour productivity 43,679 43,711 65,832 0.0% 4.2% Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (Structural Statistics, Analitika GZS. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. 122 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Other general financial operation indicators Key performance indicators are also indicated among other general performance indicators which were determined in the forecast section. Exports will continue driving growth of sales, but its importance in sales (e.g. export orientation) will not increase as in the past period because we expect the demand for industrial products in the domestic market to stabilise. 2018 2030 Sales (EUR billion) 31.2 41.8 Export (EUR billion) 21.8 29.8 EBITDA (EUR billion) 3.4 4.7 Investment (EUR billion) 2.0 2.3 Expenditure of processing activities for R&D (EUR billion) 0.49 0.80 Rank on WEF scale 35th place (2019) 30th place among 141 countries Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (Structural Statistics), Analitika GZS, EIS, The Global Compet- itiveness Report 2019, World Economic Forum. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2030 – forecast. Sub-indicators “Green development” area In green development, the key indicator is resource productivity, measured by the ratio be- tween GDP and consumed raw materials and other materials. This is also the indicator of success in carrying out Goal 8 of Slovenia’s Development Strategy 2030, transfer to a low-car- bon circular economy. Slovenia, latest EU, latest 2030, objective known data known data Resource productivity (SKM/kg)4 (UMAR, 1.9 (2018) 2.2 (2018) 3.50 PoR 2020) Circular (secondary) consumption of ma- 10.4 (2019) 11.9 (2019) EU average in terial* 2030 Proportion of employees in the circular 2.02% = 2018 1.71% = 2018 3.5% economy, considering the total number of employees, in %* % of SME offering green products or servic- 23% = 2017 24% = 2017 Above EU aver- es** age in 2030 % of SME, adopting the measures for effi- 52% (2017) 57% (2017) EU average in cient use of resources** 2030 4 The indicated goal arises from SDS 2030. Resource productivity is gross domestic product (GDP) divided by domestic material consumption (DMC). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 123 Slovenia, latest EU, latest 2030, objective known data known data % of SME, adopting the measures for effi- 47% = 2017 63% = 2017 EU average in cient use of energy** 2030 Total greenhouse gas emissions (NEPN) No goal in 2020 –20% in 2020 –36% compared with regard to compared to to 2005 1990 1990 Share of energy from renewable resources 22% = 2019 19.7% = 2019 27% (Eurostat) “Eco-innovation” index 94 (2019) 100 110 Emission productivity, SKM/mio. kg CO2 3.2 (2018) 3.4 (2017) EU average in (UMAR; PoR, 2020) 2030 Number of environmental certificates ISO 209 (2018) 172.5 (2018) 250 in 2030 14001 per million people (UMAR, PoR 2020) Quantity of processed round wood in Slove- 1.82 million in / 3 million nia for non-energy consumption in m3 2019 Sources: NEPN, Eurostat, SURS, UMAR, Eco-Innovation Scoreboard. Indicators marked with * refer to methodology arising from monitoring the implementation of the EU 2015 Action Plan for Circular Economy5. Indicators marked with ** refer to Flash Eurobarometer 456: SMEs, resource efficiency and green markets, Fieldwork September 2017, Publication January 2018. “Creative development” area In creative development, the key indicator is the selected innovation index that includes dif- ferent aspects of creativity and innovation. Latest known data 2030, objective Innovation index (considering EU development) 84.9% = 2020 110.0% Number of valid national labels 24,599 (July 2020) 26,000 Number of researchers in business sector 8,285 (2018) 12,000 Share of innovation-active enterprises 48.6% (2016–2018) 55.0% Inclusion in entrepreneurship (% of population)* 7.8% = 2019 10.0% Identifying business opportunities (% of adult pop- 3.6% = 2019 4.0% ulation from 18 to 64 years of age)* Identifying business opportunities (% of adult pop- 47.6% = 2019 55.0% ulation from 18 to 64 years of age)* Number of emerging companies in the past five 5,347 (2014–2018) 7,000 (2026-2030) years 5 Eurostat - Circular Economy Indicators, Eurostat - Circular Economy Indicators - Monitoring framework. 124 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Latest known data 2030, objective Share of employees in creative economy (consider- 7% = 2017 10% ing all employees) Gross added value per employee in CCS (GAV) in EUR 45,527 (2017) 5% above average % in RS Sources: GEM (indicators, marked with *, refer to GEM methodology), European Innovation Scoreboard 2019, Ajpes, Statistical situation analysis of CCS in Slovenia 2008–2017, Tm View, forecast: Analitika GZS, URSIL. “Smart development” area In smart development that includes the introduction of advanced technologies, we empha- sise the DESI index as the key indicator, measuring the level of digitalisation in the economy and society. Latest known data 2030, objective DESI index 51.2 points (16th place), 2020 9th place Share of expenditure for RDA in GDP in the 1.40% = 2018 2.00% business sector Number of patent applications by Slovenian 121 (2019) 150 applicants at the European Patent Office Number of robots per 10,000 employees in 174 (2018) 250 industry Digital index (high and very high in enterprises 26% = 2018 35% with more than 10 employees) DESI – 2 Human capital 48.3 (15th), 2020 8th place DESI – Digital technology integration 40.9 (15th) 2020 8th place Share of high technology products in export 19.5% = 2018 25% Share of processing enterprises which have a dig- 8% = 2019 15% ital strategy for reforming enterprise operations Sources: DG Connect, EPO, ARRS, International Federation of Robotics, 2019, Ajpes, Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecasts: Analitika GZS, UMAR (Development Report, 2020). The Slovenian Industrial Strategy will contribute to the achievement of the global sustainable development objectives that have been determined in the 2030 Agenda (“Sustainable Devel- opment Goals – SDGs”), especially the following goals: 1. Decent work and economic growth 2. Industry, innovation and infrastructure 3. Sustainable cities and communities 4. Responsible consumption and production 5. Climate action The monitoring of progress in achieving sustainable development goals through selected in- dicators that are relevant for Slovenia are recorded by SURS on the website stat.si. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 125

2.4 — The scope of measures and institutional framework

2.4. The scope of measures and institutional framework The scope of measures that differ by meaning with regard to development area is available for the implementation of SIS. These standard measures are used to promote green, creative and smart development, but these measures must be appropriately designed and guided. Guidelines are reflected in individual chapters of green, creative and smart development, and they are jointly and connectively indicated in the framework of the chapter “Guidelines for a connected green, creative and smart development”, in which the carriers of implementation and the evaluation of necessary funds are stipulated. Scope of measures/instruments by areas Measures/instruments RDI 1. Research, development and innovation 2. Demonstration and pilot projects 3. Inclusion in international research and development as well as innovation projects and programmes 4. Networking and cooperation in RDI ENTREPRENEURSHIP 5. Supporting environment for enterprises 6. Promotion of entrepreneurship and innovation 7. Promotion of startups and enterprises with rapid growth potential 8. Support to SME growth and development 9. Non-technological innovation and business models 10. Promotion of investments INTERNATIONALISATION 11. Support to internationalisation HUMAN RESOURCES 12. Strengthening competences, training, requalification, adapta- tion to demographic change BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 13. Infrastructure 14. Legislation and business environment A systematic approach that connects all three development areas is necessary, but at the same time, an appropriate institutional framework for SIS implementation must be provided. The carriers of SIS implementation must be empowered from the HR and expert aspect. The institutional framework of SIS implementation is created by all line ministries to which the guidelines of individual areas refer. The following institutions have an important role in individual areas: • Public Agency for Entrepreneurship, Internationalisation, Foreign Investments and Technology – SPIRIT Slovenia, public agency, • Slovenian Enterprise Fund – SPS, • Slovenian Regional Development Fund – SRSS, • Slovenska izvozna in razvojna banka d.d. – SID, • Slovenian Research Agency – ARRS, • Ekosklad etc. 126 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 3. PROCESSING ACTIVITIES IN SLOVENIA AND EU

3.1 — Processing activities in Slovenia in 2008–2018

3.1. Processing activities in Slovenia in 2008–2018 After the economic crisis in 2008, it was proven that industry is a source of resilience, inno- vation and even social stability. As already mentioned, Slovenian processing activity in 2019 contributed a total of 23.2% to the added value of the economy, ranking it in third place in the EU-27, behind Ireland and the Czech Republic. The EU-27 average is 16.7%. The current average added value per employee in processing activity is EUR 44,000. The EU is aware of the need for “re-industrialisation”, therefore, in 2012 it planned to achieve a 20-percent share of industry in GDP by 2020. Processing activities make up almost one third of sales revenue (EUR 31.3 billion) and around two thirds of total exports (EUR 21.7 billion of total EUR 30.9 billion in 2018). According to the data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slove- nia for 2018, there were 21,158 enterprises active in industry in Slovenia. 93% of industrial enterprises (19,671 enterprises) were registered for processing activities and they employed approximately 201,722 people. The comparative indicators in the last available year (2018)6 and a comparison with 2008 are described below. A detailed analysis of Slovenian processing activity in the past decade is presented in Appendix 1. Business entities in processing activities in 2018 generated EUR 31.3 billion sales revenue on the basis of the sales value of products or merchandise sold and charged to buyers as well as material and implemented services. In 2018, processing activities generated EUR 5.4 billion more revenue than in 2008, or they nominally grew by 21% or by 11.4% in real terms7. 6 The sums by individual activities of processing activities in some data do not match the data for processing activities due to data confidentiality; in such cases, we have only considered data for enterprises within processing activities. 7 Deflator, considered for deflation, included the joint industrial product price index with producers in processing activities. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 127 Key groups of pro- Sales Export, Added Number Gross Added cessing activities revenue, EUR mio value, of em- business value per EUR mio EUR mio ployees surplus employee (EBIT- DA), EUR mio PROC. ACT. TOTAL 31,279 21,764 8,811 201,896 3,436 43,679 Food 2,385 630 593 16,247 229 36,324 Textile 898 661 263 9,166 83 28,741 Wood 1,413 777 439 13,169 168 34,238 Paper 1,297 743 300 5,705 100 36,556 Chemical 5,991 4,762 2,051 24,712 972 64,109 Non-metal 1,014 589 336 6,967 150 48,051 Metal 6,433 4,293 1,748 42,712 642 40,933 Electrical 4,387 3,525 1,115 28,024 375 39,804 Machine-building 6,978 5,479 1,795 41,193 642 43,593 Other 484 304 170 4,315 71 39,440 Source: SURS, structural enterprise statistics, Analitika GZS, data for 2018. Sales revenue in the domestic market in 2018 amounted to EUR 9.4 billion and was by EUR 682 million lower compared to 2008, which is a 6.8% drop. The drop in sales was character- ised mostly by bankruptcies of some major enterprises in the wood, textile and non-metal industries, as well as the restructuring of those industries. In the past 10 years (2018/2008), revenue in the domestic market reduced only in the machine-building industry (EUR 27 million), in other processing activities (EUR 16 million) and metal industry (EUR 44,000). In 2018, processing activities recorded EUR 21.7 billion exports and by 43.8% or EUR 6.6 billion exceeded the exports recorded for 2008. In the past ten years (2018/2008), exports mostly increased under processing activities, i.e. in the machine-building, metal, chemical and electrical industries. In 2018, only the textile industry did not manage to reach the levels of exports of 2008. In 2018, there were 201,896 people employed 8 in processing activities, which was 20,000 or 9% fewer than in 2008. Added value in factor costs9 in 2018 in processing activities amount- ed to EUR 8.8 billion, or EUR 2.1 billion (30.7%) more than in 2008. Gross margin10 in the past eleven years remained at a level between 25.6 and 29%. Compared to 2008, gross margin in 2018 was 2.1 percentage points higher. Added value per employee in 2018 in processing activities amounted to EUR 44,000 or EUR 13,200 (43.5%) more than in 2008. For compari- son: GDP per person in that period increased by 17.7%: 8 In legal entities, sole entrepreneurs and other registered natural persons. 9 In costs of factors, added value is calculated as gross income from business activities after adjustments for sub- sidies for operations and indirect taxes. Added value is charged “gross” in costs of factors, but value adjustments (such as amortisation) are not deducted. Since 2010, subsidies, grants, holiday pay, compensations and other income connected to business effects are considered in the calculation of added value. 10 Share of added value in revenue. 128 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Business entities earmarked less than EUR 2 billion in 2018 for investments in tangible fixed assets,11 or 14% more than in 2008. The last two years were quite intensive with regard to investments, which is connected to high utilisation of capacities in processing activities, growth of available income and beneficial availability of financial sources. Gross domestic expenditure for research and development12 amounted to EUR 488.6 mil- lion in 2018, or EUR 159.3 million more than in 2008 (48.4%). In the entire business sector, expenditure for research and development amounted to EUR 662.4 million. R&D expendi- ture in processing activities therefore presented as a 73.8% expenditure of the entire business sector. The state sector in 2018 held a 6.2-percent share among sources of financing in R&D in the business sector. At the state level of Slovenia, the total gross domestic expenditure for R&D in Slovenia in 2018 amounted to EUR 892.7 million or 2.0% GDP. The country’ share of financing was 0.5%. The 2030 goal envisages an increase in investment in R&D by 2020 to at least 3% of GDP.

3.2 — Processing activities in Slovenia, EU-27 and CEE-4

3.2. Processing activities in Slovenia, EU-27 and CEE-4 in 2008–2017 Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded significantly lower revenue per employee (EUR 152,000) than in EU-27 (median) (EUR 191,000) and slightly higher than in the group of comparable central European countries (CEE-413) (median) (EUR 151.7 thousand). Pro- cessing activity in Slovenia created the highest added value per employee (EUR 43.3 thou- sand) than the median in CEE-4 countries (EUR 32.5 thousand) and slightly lower than the median of EUR-27 (EUR 43.7 thousand). Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded a higher gross margin than the median in EU-27 countries and the median in CEE-4 (SLO 28.5%, EUR 23.8%, CEE-4 22%). Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded a higher EBITDA margin (business surplus/revenue) than the median in EU-27 countries and the median in CEE-4 (SLO 11.7%, EU-27 10.2%, CEE-4 10.8%). In the 10-year period (2008–2017) the highest EBITDA margin was recorded by the CEE-4 countries (median), which was higher than the recorded margin in Slovenia. The share of gross investments in tangible fixed assets compared to revenue was slightly higher than in CEE-4 countries and higher than in EU-27 countries (SLO 5.6%, EU 4.2%, CEE-4 5.2%). Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded higher labour costs in add- ed value than the median value in EU-27 countries (60.5%) or the median value in CEE-4 (50.7%). 11 Investments in new and existing tangible fixed assets (buildings, machinery, patents, licences, etc.) with useful life longer than one year, including non-produced tangible fixed assets such as land. 12 Total internal expenditure for R&D, implemented in the territory of the Republic of Slovenia. 13 This group includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, which have a similar economy struc- ture as Slovenia and are at a similar level of economic development. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 129 Slovenia’s deviation14 by sectors of processing activities compared to indicator median with EU-27, 2017 Key groups of pro- Gross Invest- EBITDA Labour AV/em- Revenue/ cessing activities margin ment/ margin cost in add- ployee employee in p. p.15 revenue in p. p.16 ed value in p. p. in p. p. PROC. ACT. TOTAL 4.7 1.5 1.5 2.3 -379 -38,048 Food 3.0 0.0 0.4 3.8 2,714 -4,797 Textile -0.1 2.0 1.8 -6.9 3,316 -1,271 Wood 2.8 2.4 0.8 0.0 2,096 0 Paper -2.6 -2.7 -2.4 2.0 -2,310 0 Chemical 8.8 1.6 4.0 2.6 -7,668 -56,751 Non-metal 2.1 -0.3 1.7 -4.7 -1,538 -23,168 Metal 0.0 1.6 0.5 -0.7 0 -1,113 Electrical -0.8 1.6 0.8 -0.3 -3,419 -45,981 Machine-building 0.2 2.1 0.6 -2.1 0 -32,280 Other 2.5 0.3 4.7 -9.3 13,999 30,145 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In most indicators, Slovenia exceeded the CEE-4, while compared to EU-27 and despite the higher gross margin, it lags behind in labour productivity. Nevertheless, the EBITDA margin in Slovenian processing activities is mostly due to the importance of pharmaceuticals within chemical industry or processing activities higher than in EU-27. A detailed comparison is presented in Appendix 2.

3.3 — European Framework

3.3. European Framework In 2020, the economy of Slovenia, the EU and the rest of the world faced the COVID-19 pandemic, which had a strong impact on business. It caused disturbances in supply chains, industrial production, foreign trade and capital flow. The shock that the economy is experi- encing is much worse than that of the last economic and financial crisis in 2008. Vulnerability arises from the strong integration of Slovenia and the EU in the global value chains. Due to the apparent economic co-dependence of Europe, it is important that recovery will run in the direction of strengthening European industrial and strategic autonomy. From the aspect of updating and restructuring the economy, we should consider diversifying the economy so that it will be better prepared for the risks that are connected to the integration in global val- ue chains. As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, it makes sense for enterprises 14 The amount by which the indicator value in Slovenia is higher than the indicator median in the EU-27. 15 Calculation of added value in revenue. 16 EBITDA margin is the calculation of operating surplus in revenue. 130 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 to prepare for uninterrupted operations even during times of crises by identifying risks and planning measures to manage them. Slovenia and the entire EU are preparing and carrying out the measures necessary to mitigate the crisis and enable the recovery of the economy. To make the recovery sustainable, com- prehensive, inclusive and just for all member states, the European Commission has prepared the Recovery and Resilience Facility17, within which it has proposed the formation of a new instrument, the so-called “NextGenerationEU” that also brings extensive financial funds to Slovenia. EU member states are preparing their national recovery and resilience plans in which at least 37% of funds are to be dedicated to green measures and 20% of funds are to be dedicated to the digital transformation of the economy. This enables the realisation of the European Green Deal and the acceleration of digital transformation. European Green Deal18 (hereinafter referred to as the EGD), presented at the end of 2019, is used as a signpost for EU measures, addressing the environmental and climate challenges of modern society through different social sectors with the aim for Europe to become the first climate neutral continent in the world by 2050. This is the EU’s contribution to fulfilling the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, Convention on Biological Diversity and other interna- tional commitments. The Paris Agreement commits countries to limiting the rise in average global temperature to well below two degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to the pre-industrial period and encourages them to take measures to limit it to 1.5 degrees. Achieving a climate neutral and circular economy requires a timely and comprehensive mo- bilisation of industry and the wider society. Most attention is dedicated to the economy and joint strategies that provide the guidelines for its future development. A part of the EGD is the so-called Just Transition Mechanism that will promote social inclusion in the transition to a climate neutral economy in the most vulnerable coal-mining regions and in regions with a carbon intensive economy. The transformation of the industrial sector and all value chains is long-term and will take 25 years, an entire generation. To achieve the climate neutrality vision by 2050, the necessary decisions and measures must be adopted in the next five years. This is especially important in the context of the strengthening climate ambitions of the EU, as the European Commission proposes at least a 55-percent net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the EU level by 2030 as compared to 1990. In 2020, the National Assembly of the Republic of Slovenia adopted the National Environ- ment Protection Programme with programmes of measures until 2030 (ReNPVO 2020– 2030), which determines the guidelines, goals, tasks and measures of environment protection stakeholders as well as the measures for achieving the goals of Slovenia’s Development Strat- egy 2030, which also recognised a preserved healthy natural environment among its strategic guidelines for achieving quality of life. ReNPVO 2020–2030 also provides the guidelines for planning and carrying out the policies of other sectors that impact the environment. The priorities of the industrial strategy shall be planned by considering the funds that are available within the scope of the Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021–2027 and the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility. EUR 10.5 billion have been earmarked for Slove- nia. EUR 4.5 billion have been earmarked within the Multiannual Financial Framework for 17 Recovery Plan for Europe. 18 COM(2019) 640 final. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 131 2021–2027 – EUR 2.9 billion under the European Cohesion Policy and EUR 1.6 billion under the Common Agricultural Policy. Within the scope of the EU Recovery and Resilience Fa- cility, EU 2.1 billion subsidies and EUR 3.6 billion repayable funds are planned for Slovenia. Just Transition Fund19, which is part of the Just Transition Mechanism, will support eco- nomic diversification in the most vulnerable coal mining regions. This means support to productive investments in small and medium-sized enterprises, new enterprises, research and innovation, environment rehabilitation, clean energy, training and re-qualification of workers, support in job seeking and active inclusion in programmes for job seekers, and the transformation of existing carbon intensive plants, if investment is to achieve a substantial reduction of emissions and protect jobs. Planning the Just Transition Fund programmes for the 2021–2027 period will help Slovenia to address some challenges brought by the transition to a climate neutral economy. The beneficiaries in Slovenia are the Savinjsko-Šaleška region and Zasavje. Investments in green transition, as are determined in the National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Slovenia 2030 (with prospects by 2040) will increase the current low proportion of renewable sources of energy, strengthen the energy infrastructure, and the measures for reducing air pollution, which is above the EU average in Slovenian towns and cities, will be implemented, the transition to a circular economy will be strengthened, and support will be given to strengthening social entrepreneurship and promoting efforts to limit the potential effects on the regions and sectors most impacted by the transition. The following documents were presented in 2020: New Industrial Strategy for Europe20, Strategy for SME for a Sustainable and Digital Europe21 and the new Circular Economy Action Plan 22. The strategy for sustainable and smart mobility was presented at the end of 2020. Common agricultural policy will also become green. Considerable attention will be given to replacing hazardous substances with less or non-hazardous chemicals or other alter- natives in accordance with the Sustainable Strategy for Chemicals. The measures to reduce pollution from major industrial devices will follow. The New Industrial Strategy for Europe follows three key priorities for Europe to hold its leading position in industry, i.e.: 1. to maintain the global competitiveness of European industry and the same competitive conditions in the domestic and global market, 2. to ensure the climate neutrality of Europe by 2050, and 3. to form the digital future of Europe. In 2021, the European Commission updated the industrial strategy23 due to the need to adapt the planned measures to new circumstances connected to the Covid-19 pandemic. The updated strategy confirms the current priority tasks and is focused on strengthening the competitiveness of EU industry and helping as well as encouraging SME in facing the key 19 COM(2020) 460 final. 20 COM(2020) 102 final. 21 COM(2020) 103 final. 22 COM(2020) 98 final. 23 COM (2021)350 final. 132 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 challenges of climate neutrality and digitalisation. It focuses on strengthening the resilience of the single market, considering strategic dependencies of the EU and accelerating dual transition. The Industrial Strategy of the EU emphasises the need for comprehensive meas- ures to update and de-carbon energy intensive industries, to support sustainable and smart mobility industries, to promote energy efficiency and ensure a sufficient and permanent sup- ply of low-carbon energy at competitive prices. Initiatives known as industrial alliances have brought good results in the area of batteries, plastics and microelectronics. Clean hydrogen and low-carbon alliances are followed by alliances for industrial clouds and platforms and the raw material alliance. The New Strategy for SME for Sustainable and Digital Europe emphasises that SMEs are key for Europe’s competitiveness and welfare. On the basis of the new strategy for SMEs, the EU will support those enterprises by: 1. Promoting innovation with new funds and hubs for digital innovation within sustainable and digital transition; 2. Reducing bureaucracy by eliminating obstacles in the single market and opening access to financing; 3. Simplify access to financing by establishing the fund for initial public offerings of SME (whereby investment will be implemented via the new public private fund) and the ES- CALAR initiative (mechanism for increasing venture capital funds and attracting more private investment). The new Circular Economy Action Plan as part of the New Industrial Strategy for Europe and the European Green Deal envisages measures through which sustainable products will become the rule and will be more easily re-used, repaired and recycled, with a greater inclu- sion of recycled materials instead of primary materials, with the exception of wood. Indus- trial symbiosis is an important element that is deserving of more attention in Slovenia, as a by-product or waste of one product becomes a raw material for another producer. Meas- ures will focus on sectors that use the most resources and where the possibilities for their circularity are great, especially in electronics and ICT, batteries and vehicles, packaging by reducing its overuse; plastics with new requirements for the content of recycled materials and measures to reduce micro plastics in the environment, and promoting the use of bio- degradable plastics (European Strategy for Plastics in a Circular Economy). A new strategy for strengthening competitiveness and innovation in the reuse of textiles is envisaged in the area of textile products. A comprehensive strategy for a sustainably built environment that promotes the principles of circulation for buildings will also be prepared. The conditions for a well-functioning European market of secondary materials within the “Recycled in the EU” brand, planned by the EU, must be created. A circular economy will have net positive effects on GDP growth and the creation of jobs because GDP in the EU can be increased by implementing ambitious circular economy measures in Europe by 0.5% by 2030 and approx- imately 700,000 new jobs can be created. The aspect of raw material use must also be emphasised. European industry faces a high import dependence on raw materials, instability of their prices and difficult access to raw materials because they are limited, especially the so-called critical raw materials. From 1970 to 2017, the global scope of acquiring raw materials tripled and is still increasing, which has led to the lack of some critical raw materials. Approximately one half of all greenhouse gas SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 133 emissions and more than 90% of the loss in biodiversity as well as pressure on water sources arise from acquiring natural resources and processing materials, fuels and food. EU industry started the transition to a low-carbon circular economy but still generates 20% of the green- house gas emissions in the EU. It is still too “linear” and depends on the flow of newly ac- quired raw materials, their trading, processing and finally, their deposit in the form of waste or emissions. Just 12% of the material it uses originates from recycled materials. A green and circular transition is an opportunity to expand sustainable economic activities, oriented in creating jobs. But the transformation is too slow. The European Green Deal will support and accelerate the EU’s transition of industry to the sustainable model of inclusive growth. In September 2020, the European Commission presented the new EU Action Plan on Crit- ical Raw Material24 in which it proposes measures to reduce the dependence of the EU on third countries by diversifying supply and improving the efficiency of resources and the prin- ciples of a circular economy. It has updated the list of critical raw materials. The list contains 30 raw materials critical to the EU. For the first time, lithium (Li) has been added to the list. This material is essential in the transition to e-mobility. The European Commission has found that, just for e-vehicle batteries and energy storage, the EU will need up to 18 times more lithium by 2030 and 60 times more by 2050. The action plan will contribute to a sus- tainable strengthening of key markets for e-mobility, batteries, renewable energy, defence and digital applications. Investment in research and innovation is the key instrument for productivity and added value growth, as well as being an important part of the strategy for recovery and resilience after the COVID-19 pandemic. Before the crisis, Slovenia was evaluated as a moderate in- novator, meaning that it will be important to promote its efforts to equal the most successful countries. The business sector accounts for 75% of R&D expenditure. The decline in eco- nomic growth now endangers R&D as well as business innovation. A relatively low level of innovation25, especially at SMEs, is slowing down the development and the expansion of the innovative business processes and solutions that are necessary conditions for overcoming the crisis arising from the epidemic. Investments in innovative SMEs are important, including start-ups, whose activities include emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, and new models to support their growth and development will have to be developed to strength- en production. Cooperation between the academic sphere and enterprises is too often lim- ited to medium and high technology sectors. The efficiency of the environment to transfer knowledge within research organisations and higher education institutions is quite unequal and insufficient. The situation in this area will have to be improved by collaboration between universities and public research organisations as well as enterprises, which will be of key importance for a successful transfer of knowledge into innovation, improving the success of research and innovation and for promoting economic growth. To achieve the goals in research, innovation and competitiveness, investment in research and development will have to be increased by 2030. Enterprises will be guided towards financing and inclusion in re- search and development programmes as well as demonstration projects, including through an active tax policy (tax relief for research and development). 24 COM(2020) 474 final. 25 Innovation activity of enterprises 2016-2018. 134 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Digital transformation will also be one of the key elements for economic recovery after the crisis. On 9 March 2021, the European Commission in its document “The EU digital decade: A new set of digital targets for 203026” presented the vision, goals and possibilities for a successful digital transformation of Europe by 2030, which is of key importance for the transition to a climate neutral, circular and resilient economy. The aim is to achieve digital sovereignty in an open and connected world, and to form digital policy that enables people and companies to take advantage of a digital future that is oriented in people, sustainability and success. With this purpose, the European Commission proposed the foundation of a digital compass to specify the digital ambitions of the EU by 2030. It is comprised of four main points referring to knowledge and skills, digital transformation of enterprises, digitali- sation of public services and ensuring a safe and sustainable digital infrastructure. Slovenia’s potential in digital transformation has been shown with the fast introduction of remote work and schooling systems and the solution of sales via online shops which were introduced by some Slovenian enterprises at the beginning of the crisis. Greater digitalisation of business models and production processes will expand those changes to a larger part of the economy. Slovenia can build on the current knowledge and excellent capacities in robotics, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology to support the expansion of digitalisation to less advanced and traditional sectors. The reuse of a wide range of public sector and econ- omy data will, in accordance with the EU Joint Data Strategy, support the development of innovation and economy on the basis of the use of mega data. Data is key for enterprises. The data economy in Slovenia presents a completely unexploited potential. The strategy must 26 COM(2021) 118 final. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 135 encourage and enable the development of solutions in all dimensions (horizontally, vertically and chronologically), i.e. The connectivity of systems on the basis of structured data in cur- rent ICT systems (Analytics and optimisation of processes, cybersecurity, ioT, connectivity of installed industrial and business systems, platforms, digital twins, etc.), which will also be safe for individuals and enterprises. The economy’s recovery after the crisis is not the only reason for digital transformation, but it also increases productivity, competitiveness and strengthens the resilience of the economy and society. It also contributes to process safety – preventing accidents and major industrial accidents (sophisticated systems for detecting and eliminating process errors, alarming, act- ing, etc.). Digital transformation has for a long time not been only an option, but a necessity that Slovenia has to adopt at all levels – not only in industrial policy, but also at all other levels of life. A great delay due to inappropriate consideration and consequently due to a slow digital transformation would present a delay at all levels of the industry, especially in the area of positioning Slovenia in the international environment. The inclusion of digital technologies in enterprises has been carried out in a way similar to that of the EU. Further efforts are needed to effectively follow the rapid progress in the introduction of advanced ICT technologies to break through among the more successful EU countries, in particular to meet the increased need for staff with relevant digital skills. The educational system and lifelong education policies must be adapted. To fully exploit the potential of digital technologies, leg- islation must also be adapted. The introduction of a digital test that will verify the suitability of legislation from the digital aspect is also important.

3.4 — Forecast 2021–2030

3.4. Forecast 2021–2030 Methodology The forecasts for processing activity were made according to the bottom-up approach that envisages the forecasts for sales, export, added value, EBITDA, employees and investments. Forecasts are based on trends in the last decade, the deviations of margins of Slovenian sec- tors with regard to the EU-27 and evaluations of the competitive advantages of some sectors in Slovenia. Forecasts were made for two periods, i.e. for a two-year period (2019–2020)27 and ten-year period (2021–2030). These periods were divided because we estimate that the COVID-19 epidemic will have a negative impact on all key economic aggregates of enterpris- es. In the basic scenario of the Slovenian Chamber of Commerce Analysis, the COVID-19 epidemic will not have a major negative impact on the operations of the processing activities. With regard to the potential of growth of certain activities that mostly enable the considera- tion of circular economy goals, greater positive movements from the below indicated projec- tions can be expected if appropriate measures are taken. 27 The latest available data during the analysis preparation are for 2018. 136 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Sales Key groups of pro- Sales, 2018 Sales, 2020 Sales, 2030 Annual Annual cessing activities (EUR 000) (EUR 000) (EUR 000) change in change in sales in % sales in % 2019–2020 2021–2030 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 31,279,103 29,905,518 41,806,234 -2.2% 3.4% Food 2,384,590 2,505,310 3,175,858 2.5% 2.4% Textile 898,293 827,867 1,009,165 -4.0% 2.0% Wood 1,413,409 1,302,598 1,587,859 -4.0% 2.0% Paper 1,296,843 1,245,488 1,518,243 -2.0% 2.0% Chemical 5,990,623 6,232,644 8,791,760 2.0 % 3.5 % Non-metal 1,014,271 954,328 1,186,333 -3.0% 2.2% Metal 6,432,627 5,928,309 7,813,794 -4.0% 2.8% Electrical 4,387,114 4,085,390 6,654,670 -3.5% 5.0% Machine-building 6,977,697 6,363,834 9,420,029 -4.5% 4.0% Other 483,629 459,750 648,523 -2.5% 3.5% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecast by Analitika GZS. Note: year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. Sales of processing activity will drop to around EUR 30 billion in 2020, or EUR 1.3 billion less than in 2018. The food and chemical industries are among the activities in which growth is expected. Growth in the food industry will originate from beneficial trends resulting from COVID-19 (increase in food prices, increase in national stock and stock of households), while the chemical industry will mostly prosper due to generic drugs. Cyclic activities such as tex- tile, wood, metal, machine-building and the electrical industry will be more strongly affected. In the second 10-year period we estimate that the average growth in sales will be at 3.4% annually, while it will be above average in the electrical, machine-building and chemical industries. In activities subject to global competition and in which Slovenia has weaker com- petitive advantages (textile, paper industry), growth in sales will be below average. In sectors that are based on natural resources (wood), the measures for establishing the conditions for development will reach a higher growth than envisaged, which will be determined in chapter “3.4 – Industry, based on wood and other natural renewable materials”. Total sales in 2030 will be EUR 12 billion higher than in 2020 and will rise to EUR 41.8 billion. Export The COVID-19 epidemic will have a greater impact on the decline in exports value in 2019– 2020 than on a decline in domestic sales. Consequently, processing activities exports in 2020 will drop by EUR 1.1 billion compared to 2018. Subsequent growth in the next 10-year period (3.7%) will contribute to exports strengthening to around EUR 30 billion by 2030. The share of exports in total sales will increase to 71% (70% in 2018). Exports will most rapidly (from a nominal aspect) increase in the machine-building, electrical and chemical industries, which will together contribute to a 75% total increase in exports in the 2021–2030 period (+EUR SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 137 Example of structural changes within an activity: paper and paper products production Paper and paper products production is separated into production of fibres, paper and cardboard (including all major paper companies) and the production of products made from all the above materials. The second group includes enterpris- es that mostly deal with printing, which is an area in which business restructuring will be present to increase productivity and reduce the number of employees. These enterprises are also subject to greater international competition, including from the Asian countries. According to Ajpes data, labour productivity in the first activity in enterprises amounts to over EUR 70,000 (2019), in the second activity to EUR 38,000. Sales in the first activity presented 60% of the sector in 2019, while added value amounted to 50%. Therefore, in the forecast period we can estimate that the segment of paper enterprises within the paper industry will strengthen by importance, while the printing segment will record a lower growth in business categories, even a negative one in some categories (employment). 4.8 billion). The exports orientation in the wood (from 55 to 58%) and chemical industries (from 79 to 81%) will strengthen the most. Key groups of pro- Export, Export, Export, Annual Annual cessing activities 2018 (EUR 2020 (EUR 2030 (EUR change in change in 000) 000) 000) export in % export in % 2019–2020 2021–2030 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 21,764,371 20,666,631 29,804,170 -2.6% 3.7% Food 630,020 642,683 830,751 1.0% 2.6% Textile 661,489 603,294 749,960 -4.5% 2.2% Wood 777,082 708,718 916,109 -4.5% 2.6% Paper 743,025 706,338 878,055 -2.5% 2.2% Chemical 4,762,391 4,974,242 7,084,749 2.2% 3.6% Non-metal 588,995 548,486 688,529 -3.5% 2.3% Metal 4,293,021 3,939,981 5,295,004 -4.2% 3.0% Electrical 3,525,488 3,269,429 5,427,868 -3.7% 5.2% Machine-building 5,479,127 4,986,641 7,524,632 -4.6% 4.2% Other 303,581 286,819 408,512 -2.8% 3.6% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecast by Analitika GZS. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. Added value and gross margin Added value will change similarly to sales or will slightly lag behind it, which is the result of our estimate that the starting gross margin in the Slovenian economy in 2018 was above 138 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 average both in terms of the EU-27 median and the historical average. Therefore, we estimate that an ambitious goal is, with the predicted growth in sales and export, that the gross margin remains at the level from 2018 (28.2%). In activities in which added value will increase more quickly than sales, the gross margin will also strengthen. Relative to the year 2018, it will be higher by 2030 in the paper (+1.6%), textile (+1.9%), wood and metal industries (+0.6%), and it will be lower in the chemical industry (-0.7%) due to the pressure on the prices of generic drugs, and in the electrical industry28 (-0.4%). Key groups of pro- Added val- Added val- Added val- Annual Annual cessing activities ue, 2018 ue, 2020 ue, 2030 change change (EUR 000) (EUR 000) (EUR 000) in added in added value in % value in % 2019–2020 2021–2030 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 8,811,030 8,477,406 11,798,624 -1.9% 3.4% Food 593,469 617,445 790,382 2.0% 2.5% Textile 263,356 245,244 304,864 -3.5% 2.2% Wood 438,515 404,135 502,384 -4.0% 2.2% Paper 300,052 291,118 376,307 -1.5% 2.6% Chemical 2,050,654 2,133,500 2,951,861 2.0% 3.3% Non-metal 336,260 317,693 394,927 -2.8% 2.2% Metal 1,747,775 1,614,107 2,169,225 -3.9% 3.0% Electrical 1,115,439 1,043,035 1,666,908 -3.3% 4.8% Machine-building 1,795,365 1,647,721 2,415,679 -4.2% 3.9% Other 170,145 163,407 226,086 -2.0% 3.3% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecast by Analitika GZS. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. Employment The increase in automation and drop in exports in 2020 due to the COVID-19 epidemic will contribute to the reduction of employment in the 2019–2020 period. The situation will be similar later, when the pressure to increase competitiveness will require greater investment and lean, innovative business models. Bright exceptions will be the machine-building and electrical industries, in which a high growth in added value will prevent a drop in employ- ment. By 2020, the number of employees will have dropped by 7,000 people in comparison to 2018, and by 2030, the number will drop by another 15,000. The nominal growth in added value (which best reflects the organic growth of operations), will prevent a quicker reduction in the number of employees that will primarily be the result of increasing the level of pro- duction automation as well as more intensive collaboration of the industry with other parts of the economy29. 28 Margin reduction in some industries will be the result of margin convergence to the EU average. 29 This means that there should be more collaboration with the domestic service sector, outsourcing of certain high added value activities (marketing, design, PR). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 139 Key groups of pro- Employees, Employees, Employees, Annual Annual cessing activities 2018 2020 2030 change in change in employ- employ- ees in % ees in % 2019–2020 2021–2030 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 201,722 193,943 179,222 -1.9% -0.8% Food 16,338 16,338 14,046 0.0% -1.5% Textile 9,163 8,800 6,624 -2.0% -2.8% Wood 12,808 12,051 9,847 -3.0% -2.0% Paper 8,208 7,883 6,441 -2.0% -2.0% Chemical 31,987 31,668 27,226 -0.5% -1.5% Non-metal 6,998 6,721 5,778 -2.0% -1.5% Metal 42,698 40,590 34,896 -2.5% -1.5% Electrical 28,023 26,913 29,729 -2.0% 1.0% Machine-building 41,185 38,751 40,733 -3.0% 0.5% Other 4,314 4,228 3,902 -1.0% -0.8% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecast by Analitika GZS. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. Changed structure of the modern economy The dynamic of decreasing the number of employees in most processing activities will be followed by a parallel growth of employment in service sectors that are connected to processing activity, especially in employing a referred labour force, installation, creative industries, legal, tax, business consulting, cleaning and other types of support functions. The trends of excluding support functions from parent companies will be the result of optimising business models in accordance with the role models of the most successful enterprises abroad. In other words, this means that the processing activities employment multiplicator will increase by 2030 (every job in processing activities will greatly contribute to a new job in the service sector). Investments According to our estimates, investment will drop by one fifth in the first period, then gradu- ally increase at an average annual rate of 3.7%. In the first period, investment will mostly de- crease in the machine-building, metal, textile, wood and paper industries. In the 2019–2020 period, investment will amount to 5.4% of annual sales, which is slightly less than in the 2008–2018 period (5.5% of annual sales). In the second period, an average of 5.6% of annual sales will be earmarked for investment in processing activities by 2030. Initially, investment 140 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 will mostly increase in the chemical and metal industries, in which half of the total invest- ments will be realised. Relatively, they will increase the most in the textile industries because they will be needed to achieve a proper increase in labour productivity. Key groups of pro- Invest- Invest- Invest- Annual Annual cessing activities ments, 2018, ments, 2020, ments, 2030, change in change in in EUR 000 in EUR 000 in EUR 000 inv. in % inv. in % 2019–2020 2021–2030 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 1,975,153 1,612,974 2,348,692 -9.6% 3.8% Food 117,578 103,892 149,406 -6.0% 3.7% Textile 38,245 30,978 49,037 -10.0% 4.7% Wood 133,871 108,436 152,959 -10.0% 3.5% Paper 60,432 48,950 69,718 -10.0% 3.6% Chemical 437,150 386,266 588,477 -6.0% 4.3% Non-metal 67,746 59,860 82,821 -6.0% 3.3% Metal 423,567 343,089 512,760 -10.0% 4.1% Electrical 203,590 172,319 245,431 -8.0% 3.6% Machine-building 468,673 338,616 468,502 -15.0% 3.3% Other 24,301 20,568 29,579 -8.0% 3.7% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecast by Analitika GZS. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. EBITDA and EBITDA margins In 2020, EBITDA will be 6% lower than in 2018, by 2030 it will increase with a 3.7-percent growth to EUR 4.7 billion. In the first period (2019–2020), the nominal drop will be largest in the machine-building (40% drop) and metal industries (31% of total drop), while in the chemical industry it will increase by EUR 40 million due to a greater demand for generic drugs. In the second period (2021–2030), the chemical industry will contribute 27% to EBIT- DA growth, the machine-industry 23% and the electrical industry 18%. By 2030, the EBIT- DA margin in processing activity will increase from the 11.0% recorded in 2020 to 11.3%. Key groups of pro- EBITDA, EBITDA, EBITDA, Annual Annual cessing activities 2018, in 2020, in 2030, in change in change in EUR 000 EUR 000 EUR 000 EBITDA in EBITDA in % 2019– % 2021– 2020 2030 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 3,435,310 3,282,032 4,721,170 -2.7% 3.7% Food 228,978 231,274 304,830 0.5% 2.8% Textile 83,271 78,350 105,295 -3.0% 3.0% Wood 167,568 141,830 181,554 -8.0% 2.5% Paper 100,046 95,106 134,157 -2.5% 3.5% Chemical 971,961 1,011,228 1,399,112 2.0% 3.3% SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 141 Key groups of pro- EBITDA, EBITDA, EBITDA, Annual Annual cessing activities 2018, in 2020, in 2030, in change in change in EUR 000 EUR 000 EUR 000 EBITDA in EBITDA in % 2019– % 2021– 2020 2030 Non-metal 150,270 137,050 170,368 -4.5% 2.2% Metal 642,121 594,247 814,262 -3.8% 3.2% Electrical 374,832 345,445 607,066 -4.0% 5.8% Machine-building 642,159 579,548 908,671 -5.0 % 4.6 % Other 70,756 67,954 95,856 -2.0 % 3.5 % Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecast by Analitika GZS. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. Expenditure for research and development In accordance with the expenditure forecast for R&D, we have followed the target guideline that R&D expenditure in the private sector will reach 1.8% GDP in 2030. Despite the below average growth in expenditure for R&D (5.4%), the chemical industry will in the 2021–2030 period contribute to a 43 percent increase in total expenditure for this purpose in processing activity. The electrical industry will follow with 26 percent and the machine-building indus- try with an 18 percent share. At the national level, the goal of increasing investment in R&D by 2030 is to at least 3% of GPD, of which at least 1% of GDP will come from public funds. Key groups of pro- Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Annual Annual cessing activities for R&D, for R&D, for R&D, change in change in 2018, in 2020, in 2030, in expenditure expenditure EUR 000 EUR 000 EUR 000 in R&D in in R&D in % 2019– % 2021– 2020 2030 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 488,636 446,144 800,364 -4.4% 6.0% Food 7,616 6,169 11,580 -10.0% 6.5% Textile 7,026 5,076 9,091 -15.0% 6.0% Wood 4,215 4,215 8,292 0.0% 7.0% Paper 4,642 3,760 6,734 -10.0% 6.0% Chemical 212,255 220,830 373,649 2.0% 5.4% Non-metal 4,090 4,090 8,046 0.0% 7.0% Metal 21,073 17,069 40,409 -10.0% 9.0% Electrical 128,820 116,260 208,204 -5.0% 6.0% Machine-building 79,647 64,514 126,909 -10.0% 7.0% Other 4,610 4,161 7,451 -5.0% 6.0% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, forecast by Analitika GZS. Note: Year 2018 – last known data during the analysis; year 2020 – estimation, year 2030 – forecast. 142 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 4. GREEN DEVELOPMENT A green, sustainable and circular development of the economy is becoming a trend and a ne- cessity for preserving long-term international competitiveness. The transition to a low-car- bon circular economy was integrated among the strategic developmental priorities in Slo- venia. At the end of 2017, the Government of the Republic of Slovenia adopted Slovenia’s Development Strategy 2030 (hereinafter SDS 2030), which determines 12 key goals, in- cluding a low-carbon circular economy. This goal will be achieved by promoting innovation, new business models, digital transformation, efficient use of raw materials by closing materi- al flows and energy as well as by adapting to climate change. All policies, from research and innovation to education and employment policy will have to be adapted accordingly. Adap- tation and formation of new skills at all levels of education and training as well as ensuring the appropriate number of qualified staff is of key importance. The implementation of measures from the National Energy and Climate Plan 2030 (herein- after referred to as the NECP 2030) is also important in this context. The key goals of NECP 2030 are: • reducing total greenhouse gas emissions by 36%, of which 20 % will be in the non-ETS sector (which is 5 percentage points above Slovenia’s adopted commitment); • min. 35-percent improvement of energy efficiency, which is higher than the goal, adopted at the EU level (32.5%), • min. 27-precent renewable energy resources, where Slovenia had – due to relevant national circumstances, especially environmental restrictions – to agree with a lower goal than the goal at the EU level (32%) with the aim to increase the ambition at the next update of NECP (2023/24), • 3-percent investment in research and development, 1% of which is from public funds. The improvement of energy and material efficiency in all sectors and the consequent re- duction in the use of energy and other natural resources is the first and key measure on the way to a climate neutral society. The fulfilment of NEPC leads to reducing the dependence on fossil fuels, with NEPC we are also supporting sustainable solutions in transport (public sustainable transport), in buildings (heating and cooling, comprehensive renovation) and in industry (due to ensuring competitiveness). NEPC also determines the goals to reduce and abandon the use of coal by 30% by 2030. By 2021, the strategy for abandoning the use of coal and restructuring coal mining regions in accordance with the just transition principle will be adopted and will determine a more specific time plan for abandoning the use of coal in Slo- venia. NEPC determines the study of the use of new nuclear energy, and it also determines that the decision on the second block of the Krško Nuclear Power Plant (NEK) will have to be made by 2027 at the latest. NEPC also determines a gradual reduction of subsidies for fossil resources of energy and their termination. NEPC also determines the strengthening of SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 143 investment in R&D and more investment in staff that will be important in the transition to a climate neutral society. One of the key areas highlighted by the NEPC is also the transition to a circular economy.

4.1 — Transition to a low-carbon circular economy

4.1. Transition to a low-carbon circular economy The new investment cycle must be based on green principles of a more resilient and inclusive climate neutral model for preserving and improving biodiversity and quality of living for all, which is the umbrella goal of the SDS 2030. This involves a change of the linear economic model that operates according to the “take-make-consume-throw away” principle into a cir- cular economic model that is based on extended preservation of the value of materials and products, replacing products with services, transition from ownership to co-use and digital- isation usage. New technologies that are based on digitalisation, renewable energy sources and developing hybrid technologies such as applied technologies (3D printing) with new and alternative materials are the supporting technologies for a transition to a circular economy. The circular concept (also called the “3R – reduce, reuse, recycle) focuses on closing material flows by minimising the quantity of waste or using it as a source. The products are designed to be repaired, upgraded, restored and reused and recycled in the last phase. Therefore, the integration of eco-design into the search for solutions in products, services or business mod- els is an essential building block of the transition to a low-carbon economy. Nature itself is a circular system in which everything circles and there are no losses or waste. Positive impacts of CO2 sinking in the material emergence phase must be considered in the introduction of a circular economy. The cascade use of wood is especially efficient, because we can even achieve a negative carbon footprint. The transition to a low-carbon circular economy presents an opportunity for the develop- ment of the economy because it brings concrete financial benefits to companies and the economy, promotes innovation and reduces negative environmental impacts in the supply chain. The elimination of waste from industrial chains via reuse of materials creates savings in production and lower dependence on primary, especially critical, materials. Special atten- tion should be dedicated to municipal waste, the support environment should be improved with infrastructure, and the country’s self-sufficiency for proper waste management must be increased in accordance with the waste management hierarchy. 144 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Figure 3: Schematic presentation of a circular economy The transition to a low-carbon circular economy demands better resource management and should focus on preventing the occurrence of waste from the product design (circular and digital by design) as well as improved collection for enhancing/preserving the purity of flows for their improved processing or recycling. The entire product life cycle through the entire value chain must be considered. By introducing low-carbon circular economy principles, we will improve energy and materi- al self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on foreign markets. The infrastructure for energy supply, especially electricity for waste processing and better supply of raw materials and en- ergy sources from waste flows, will also be important. Optimisation with digitalisation and artificial intelligence, gradual electrification of various procedures, from heat electrification and technological procedure electrification to hydrogen production as well as carbon col- lection and storage is of key importance for a transition to a circular economy, whereas the legislative framework must also be adapted to the technological development. All the tech- nologies of the future are based on low-carbon and renewable sources of energy. A bio-economy that also strengthens the world is also an important part of a circular econ- omy. According to the definition of the European Commission, the bio-economy comprises all sectors and systems that are based on acquiring and processing biological resources (ge- netic resources, animals, plants, microorganisms and acquired biomass, including organic waste), their functions and principles. Besides primary production, the bio-economy also includes other industries in which the sources and procedures of producing food, feedstuffs, medicines and other products, energy and services are based on natural resources of bi- ological origin. Therefore, improving the accessibility and the sustainable use of biomass as a primary, natural, renewable raw material resource, which increasingly conditions the international competitiveness of a large part of manufacturing, is crucial. The future trend in the plastics processing industry is bio-based plastics acquired from bio-polymers. These SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 145 components are the product of biorefineries. The importance of the bio-based chemical and pharmaceutical industry must also be mentioned within this scope. Slovenia is preparing a plan for the transition to a circular economy in accordance with the initiatives at the European level. This involves a comprehensive strategic decarbonisation project via the transition to a circular economy which is one of the key national projects that will bring positive effects to the economy’s competitiveness, the environment, employ- ment and other social aspects as well as a higher quality of life. The project is systemic and focuses in all areas that are key for the transition to a low-carbon circular economy. The project is being prepared in partnership with the leading European institutions in this area30. European know-how in the area of transitioning to a low-carbon circular economy will be transferred to Slovenia and connected with domestic knowledge as well as upgraded. The project also includes support for establishing start-up companies that will work in low-carbon circular solutions and support innovation and the transition of SME to low-car- bon circular business models. Systemic conditions for increasing the qualifications of various groups of stakeholders (primary and high schools, higher education institutions, companies, public administration) will be introduced at the same time to design and carry out the appro- priate solutions necessary for a transition to a low-carbon circular economy. In this context, enhancing competences and the need for requalification and exploiting opportunities to cre- ate new green jobs is of key importance. Supporting decarbonisation in key value chains is also envisaged within the project: in processing industry, forest-wood chain, food chain, built environment and mobility. The transition to a low-carbon economy and the European Green Deal will demand certain adjustments in various industries. Chemicals have a fundamental role in most industrial sectors and will become the builders of low-carbon and efficient technologies, materials and products. The new European strategy in chemicals for sustainability will promote the inno- vation and adaptations of the chemical industry (including the rubber, plastics and phar- maceutical industries) as well as all its consumers along the distribution chain. Increasing the investment and innovative capacity of the chemical industry in providing safe and sus- tainable chemicals, reducing pollution and the burden on health and the environment, and achieving the EU’s strategic autonomy and self-sufficiency in the supply of basic chemicals will be crucial for a successful green transition. To transition to a low-carbon society and circular economy, the country must promote in- vestment in necessary fixed assets as well as introduce appropriate legislation and other con- ditions. 30 With KIC – Knowledge and Innovation Communities within the European Institute of Innovation and Tech- nology and Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. 146 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030

4.2 — Decarbonisation of energy intensive industry

4.2. Decarbonisation of energy intensive industry Energy intensive industry - EII (metal, non-metal, chemical and paper) is an important part of Slovenian industry. Annually, EII consume less than one sixth of the final used energy in Slovenia. These activities employ around 27,500 people and create 2.5% GDP. They are also important from an export point of view, as they export most of their products. A relatively low number of companies use the majority of energy in industry. In 2016, only 20 companies used half of all energy in industry. From 2005 to 2016, industry reduced direct greenhouse gas emissions by more than 35%, while process emissions were reduced by more than 20%. Nevertheless, a high share of EII in the Slovenian economy structure means the greater vul- nerability of Slovenia due to greater exposure to changes arising from climate energy policies. Therefore, a timely and efficient renovation and restructuring of the Slovenian economy and companies in EII is important. Energy intensive industry in Slovenia is very effective in Slovenia compared to plants in the EU and mostly uses the best available technologies (BAT). From this point of view, a ma- jor transition to a low-carbon circular economy is highly dependent on the development of new breakthrough technologies that are not yet on the market or are just beginning to be developed in the field of heat, electrification and production processes. Certain developed technologies, from production to the use of hydrogen and the collection, storage and use of carbon still await an affordable and proper integration into the production processes of energy intensive industry. We need to avoid closing the most efficient companies because emissions at the global level would increase as products from less efficient plants and other parts of the world were im- ported (carbon leakage). Industry must be encouraged to further reduce energy intensive activities and manage energy as well as reduce process emissions with optimisation, digi- talisation and the use of artificial intelligence. This industry needs a reliable supply of clean energy and a supply with raw materials which is conditioned by a proper infrastructure for energy supply and waste management. According to the European Commission, regardless of the already implemented and expected measures to reduce electricity consumption in the EII, electricity consumption in energy-intensive industry in the EU will increase from 2.98 to 4.43 TWh. The issue of EII vulnerability from the aspect of affordability of energy must also be addressed. In the future, industry will face a more demanding situation in the energy market due to the expected movements in international markets and the investment needed to restore production and transmission or distribution capacities in Slovenia. The importance of EII is also recognised by the European Green Deal, which states that the energy intensive industry is an indispensable part of the economy because it provides raw materials for other value chains that are important for the EU economy. Another important aspect is access to raw materials (especially critical raw materials that must be excluded from the existing waste flows). All opportunities that are available at the EU level must be used for technological breakthroughs and the renovation of energy intensive industry (e.g. Innova- tion fund, Horizon). At the domestic level this should be exploited via the recovery and resil- ience mechanism and the just transition mechanism. The measures will be used to promote research, development and innovation and transfer advanced technologies, investments in the introduction of technology and infrastructure for affordable clean energy, energy effi- SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 147 ciency and replacement of energy sources, increasing material efficiency and promoting the introduction of circular solutions in the industry of basic materials (the use of secondary raw materials, replacing carbon or energy intensive raw materials and materials with substances that have a smaller footprint). We will strengthen international cooperation for the devel- opment of breakthrough technologies and introduce options to optimise production using automation, digitalisation, quantum technologies and artificial intelligence. Current production has been especially significantly rationalised from the aspect of reducing energy consumption per unit and increasing material production. In accordance with wider European forecasts, breakthroughs and greater affordability of new low-carbon technologies are expected in the coming years that will fundamentally transform production in energy-in- tensive industry. These technologies are, specifically: • use of climate-neutral hydrogen (heat and/or processes); • use of biomass and biotechnologies; • further heat electrification; • further process electrification (electrolysis, electrochemistry); • capture and utilisation of carbon (CCU); • capture and storage of carbon (CCS); Therefore, we need to accelerate developmental and innovation activities as well as pilot and demonstration activities (e.g. production of synthetic methane and hydrogen), and the in- vestment incentives for this purpose. The integration of industry in local energy commu- nities with digitalisation and the implementation of smart platforms, exploiting waste heat and increasing self-supply from renewable sources of energy, is also important. Improving energy efficiency is necessary also by promoting the introduction of energy management in enterprises, e.g. via the introduction of systems that are harmonised with ISO 50001 (or ap- propriate alternatives) in energy intensive enterprises and in less energy intensive companies (in those where the cost of energy sources comes third or later on the cost scale). Enterprises must be motivated to invest in energy reviews. 148 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030

4.3 — Sustainable mobility

4.3. Sustainable mobility In the future, mobility will remain the foundation of society and the economy. However, at the same time, greenhouse gas emissions from traffic can endanger the achievement of cli- mate goals if the current trend continues. Traffic in Slovenia represents the largest source of GHG emissions, i.e. 52.9% in 2018. The share of this sector in 2005 was 38%. Most emissions originate from road traffic. Traffic is also the only sector in which emissions increased in the 2005–2018 period, i.e. by 31.9% (source: Climate Action Mirror 2020). Green and digital will be the key areas of mobility development in the next decade, if we want to manage the emissions from traffic. Clean transport and logistics are emphasised in infrastructure, including the setup of e-charging stations, initiatives for railway transport and clean mobility in towns and regions. Sustainable forms of mobility must be promoted, and the construction of transport infra- structure should be adapted to preferentially encourage the deviation from road transport of passengers and cargo. This segment is closely connected to smart cities and communities, which is further discussed in the Slovenian Smart Specialisation Strategy (S4). It should be emphasised that the Slovenian car industry represents approximately 10% of Slovenian gross added product and approximately 20% of Slovenian imports. Around 285 enterprises employing 16,000 people operate in this segment. Slovenian exporters and sup- pliers for the car industry have all the international standards and are competent suppliers in the global market with key buyers in Germany, where the Slovenian car industry exports 40% of its production, followed by France, Italy, Austria, Great Britain and the USA. The fact is that the COVID-19 pandemic has strongly affected the car industry. Slovenia has strong developmental suppliers with a log of accumulated knowledge and development potentials, but the situation is difficult in large part due to the termination of supply chains. This is also true of the car industry as it will have to continue to upgrade in the direction of a green and digital transition. It will have to follow market trends in the direction of car electrification and business model change (car-sharing). Due to the accumulated knowledge and potential, opportunities and developmental projects can be sought outside the industry.

4.4 — Industry based on wood and other natural

4.4. Industry based on wood and other natural renewable materials On its way to the basic goal from the European Green Deal (transition to a clean society without net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050), Slovenia will utilise the developmental po- tential enabled by domestic natural renewable materials, which ensure an uninterrupted sup- ply of raw materials, short supply routes and a positive impact on climate change mitigation. By increasing the awareness of the importance of environment conservation, alternatives to fossil sources are sought as their use has major, long-term negative effects on our living space. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 149 One of the ways is the increased use of products made from natural renewable materials that represent CO2 sinking. Wood is the key strategic raw material and industrial material in Slovenia and is a natural and renewable source. Annual natural growth of wood in Slovenia is 9 million m³, while annual felling accounts for approximately 6 million m³31, of which only 1,82 m³ of round wood is processed at home (data for 2019), together with cut wood and wood waste 2.87 million m³ is exported abroad (data for 2019, source: SURS, Forest Service of Slovenia32), then semi-prod- ucts or wood products are imported, while the remaining amounts are used for energy. From the aspect of CO2 created from 1 m3 of some materials, wood has quite an advantage in com- parison with other raw materials. While in the processing of other materials CO2 is released into the environment (the quantity depends on the type of material), with growth, CO2 is stored and, until its destruction (burning – rotting), it represents a negative value of created CO2 for the environment. The ‘Climate effect of the forest-based sector in the European Union’ study from 2020 determines that European forests and wood-based sectors together lower the balance of CO2 created in the EU by 20%. Nature-based solutions should also re- ceive more attention in the area of forest management. The ‘Solution is in Nature’ from 2021 highlights the great importance of forest management in a way that has a positive impact on biodiversity protection. Wood is a material with at least two or three useful cycles, the so-called cascading use of wood. First, it is used as a product (cut wood, building component, furniture), secondly as material in the recycling process (panels or paper) and lastly for acquiring energy as is shown on the image below. Wood is primarily recognised as material for industrial processing and not as energy source. Only wood that is not suitable for further industrial processing or waste wood is used as an energy source. In the segment of using natural renewable materials that store carbon, there are great op- portunities in wood processing as Slovenia has large quantities of it (58% of the territory is covered in forest), which means that with sustainable forest management and improving the preservation of biodiversity, there is sufficient potential for long-term development based on domestic raw materials. Climate change impacts tree composition, therefore, the wood in- dustry must adapt to the new situation. We should also think about alternative raw materials (biowaste in agriculture, forestry and municipal management). To adapt to climate change in forest management planning, we should consider nature-based solutions, including the prevention of entry and spreading of foreign species, especially invasive species. Slovenian forests are also an immense pool of gene sources for research and development in various segments (e.g. pharmaceutical and food industry, biofuels, synthetic components industry, pest control, etc.). 31 The number applies to average felling from 2015 to 2019, when there were major natural storms, while the actual annual felling rate is lower, at around gross 5 million m³. 32 Export of round industrial wood (according to initial unofficial data in 2020) amounted to 1.4 million m3. 150 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Figure 4: Presentation of cascading use of wood Source: EPF – European Panel Federation; SGLP – Tackle climate change, use wood, 2010. The construction and furnishing of smart wooden buildings is an exceptional market oppor- tunity that will only grow. If the proportion of newly built wooden houses in the EU were to increase by 10%, this would contribute to a 25% annual reduction of CO2. The redirection to wood construction within public procurement is important in this context. Our vision joins that of forest and wood associations in the EU vision written in the Forest-Based Industries 2050 (CEI Bois, 2019) that envisages that the proportion of construction wood will grow from the current 10% to 30%, meaning that the amount of wood construction will triple. The amount of wood in forests in both the EU and Slovenia makes this possible. Greater process- ing of wood felled in Slovenia can additionally contribute to reducing emissions or increasing carbon sinks in forests in accordance with the LULUCF (EU 2018/841) Regulation. The vision of the wood processing industry is to increase the level of wood construction with developmental activities and by building demonstration (pilot) buildings. New business models will thus form to enable a competitive performance of consortia with investors in Slo- venia and in foreign markets. In this way, the Slovenian wood processing industry will also secure a market for the sale of large quantities of wood with high added value. In addition to the material use of wood, wood can be used to acquire bio components (bio derivatives), the products of which can replace synthetic chemicals. A lot of inferior quality wood in Slovenia is also processed in paper factories which currently still import more than 60% of their re- SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 151 quired wood. Inferior quality wood and wood waste thus achieve higher added value than if such wood is used for energy purposes. With the aim of increasing wood processing in Slovenia, investment will have to be made in primary wood processing and other wood processing areas which is directly connected to strengthening the so-called soft capital – research, development, innovation, human re- sources, etc. In addition to wooden construction, which also includes joinery, the furniture industry is still very prominent in Slovenia. The key emphasis is on new technologies and business mod- els in production and development processes, whereby it is necessary to take into account the principles of circular and digital development (“creative and digital by design”). The wood processing industry in Slovenia is important from the aspect of a high number of SMEs, in which there are almost 1,500 sole entrepreneurs, for whom the key is to strive for a friendlier business environment and to promote consumption from renewable sources. It should be emphasised that there are more than 400,000 forest owners in Slovenia. They should be mobilised and connected to intensify forest management and increase wood use in Slovenia. Wood is the output material for many technologically advanced co-natural materials and products (composite products, modified wood, insulation and polymer materials, fibres, sol- vents, liquefied wood, carbon fibres, medicines, pyrolysis – wood gas, etc.). Education and biomaterial research must be strengthened to utilise all opportunities in this area (e.g. in architecture, construction and machine-building). As other sectors such as forestry, the cel- lulose and paper industry, some construction, and the creative industry (design, architecture, research art ...) are connected to wood, the development of the wood processing industry has great potential that must be used. The basic goals by 2030, connected to wood exploitation, are to increase the amount of round wood in Slovenia for non-energy use to 3 million 3 per year, to reach a 30-percent share of wood in all new public buildings, to develop new ways to use wood, to increase the number of employees in wood-connected industries (in which the increase of employees in services connected to these branches must be considered as these are not considered in the general analysis and include repairs, installations ...) and to increase the realisation of sales in the wood industry to EUR 2.5 billion per year. The realisation of green a breakthrough and sustainable development will be achieved by forming an encouraging environment for activities that contribute to achieving the goals of a green Europe. Wood processing is therefore tackled systematically by considering the potential carried by micro, small and medium sized enterprises. 152 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 5. CREATIVE DEVELOPMENT Research, development and innovation (RDI) are one of the main pillars of modern society. All three are largely based on connecting knowledge, industries and organisations which mutually develop creative innovation. These increasingly arise from the problem of the in- dividual, society and/or environment and offer a solution to a specific problem. Different organisations enter the successful and open RDI cycle differently than in the past, i.e. from enterprises of different sizes and sectors, knowledge institutions, NGOs to creative industries (CI) that are the source of incentives for the development of the economy and society as a whole. Cooperation of enterprises with knowledge institutions, NGOs and CI increase the creativity of individuals and innovation in enterprises, enables their improved performance in domestic and foreign markets and increases revenue and added value. Creativity and innovation are the key features and skills that improve the country’s economic and social indicators, and connections and cooperation present great potential for finding solutions to today’s major societal challenges, including population ageing, environment, health, food and safety. International analyses show that enterprises which connect with CI in their business pro- cesses create higher profits and achieve quicker growth. Enterprises that invest in design (compared to enterprises that do NOT invest in design): • Their revenue increases at a 22% quicker rate (Danish Design Centre (The Economic Effects of Design, 2003)); • Are more than 50% more productive (Swedish Industrial Design Foundation, 2008) and • Achieve 200% higher stock prices (British Design Council, 2007). The Innobarometer, the 2016 European Commission research into innovation processes in SME shows that the Slovenian economy has a lot of unexploited potential in the area of in- cluding design and creativity in the innovation processes of enterprises. Based on a sample of 501 Slovenian enterprises, the research has shown that the share of Slovenian enterprises for which design is of key importance for their business strategy is only 5% (Denmark, Austria: 21%, Great Britain: 17%). The share of enterprises that do not use design, according to their own statements, is 43% in Slovenia, the average in the EU 27 is 37%. The use of digital tools such as tools for industrial design, product development, production devices and objects, technological tools (CAD/CAM, 3D printing) and simulations (materi- als, tools, installations) strongly strengthen the efficiency of creative and innovation activity. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 153

5.1 — Concern for a creative, entrepreneurial and

5.1. Concern for a creative, entrepreneurial and innovation support environment The entrepreneurial and innovation support environment in Slovenia is very diverse and lively, but also dispersed, lacking in transparency and unfocused. Various entities operate in this environment whose activities are often duplicated and do not create the desired and expected value. Therefore, Slovenia needs a platform that will create a healthy, stimulating and connected ecosystem that will be based on creativity, entrepreneurship and connection. Groups that will carry out programmes in (I) the economy, (II) the academic and science and research sphere, (III) the public sector and (IV) the wider society, must be established within such an ecosystem. Groups must carry out structured programmes that are based on key areas and follow specific goals for every segment, and which will operate as a platform and as a connected entity and be complementary. With this approach, the main challenges of modern society and the country can be structurally and effectively addressed. An ecosystem designed as a platform needs an independent, correct and connective coordi- nator that will manage the umbrella programme and connect the main subjects and consor- tia, which will carry out specific programmes to increase innovation and entrepreneurship in every area. Programmes and the entities that carry them out should complement, connect, inform and educate each other. They should provide for a creative, entrepreneurial and innovative sup- porting environment to make Slovenia an attractive place for the prosperity of talent, growth and other enterprises, which will create high added value, new jobs and at the same time renew the economy in the direction of a circular and digital transition. An entrepreneurial and innovative supporting environment must represent an inclusive en- vironment that is based on the cooperation of companies with suppliers, buyers, competi- tion, universities, scientific and research organisations, institutes, CI, NGOs and other public and private organisations. Such a network helps enterprises to overcome obstacles that refer to the sources of financing, human capital, social capital and other sources, connected to the specifics of a certain enterprise or market. Social economy subjects must be emphasised and dealt with the same as other subjects in the support environment, while the implementers of individual measures should be qualified to work with them. The quality of the support environment is essential to transfer knowledge that generates de- velopment. Therefore, we should build on entrepreneurial and innovation infrastructure that will enable, promote and expand a system of open innovation in enterprises and organisa- tions of all forms, to cooperate, connect, exchange knowledge, experience and inventions, license foreign solutions and promote the foundation of new enterprises. Despite many indicators and innovation analyses (e.g. European Innovation Scoreboard, Global Innovation Index ...) these analyses do not show the real situation of innovation in the Slovenian economy because they comprise a wide range of indicators that are not signifi- cantly connected to the economy. An innovation analysis among Slovenian enterprises of all sizes should be developed and implemented annually to gain an actual and real insight into innovation in the Slovenian economy which will provide an understanding of the individ- 154 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 ual parts of innovation and innovation culture, thus enabling the addressing of significant deficiencies that should be drawn to the country’s attention, and which would also support enterprises with various financial and non-financial measures. We will design, introduce and strengthen a comprehensive and connected support envi- ronment for innovation that will have a platform built from subjects/consortia that will carry out innovation programmes in key areas of the innovation ecosystem: (I) the economy and its representative chambers/associations, (II) academic, scientific and research sphere, (III) public sector and (IV) society. The key role of the SPIRIT Slovenia public agency as stake- holders of the supporting environment at the national level is of key importance. Within this framework, we shall strengthen: 1. The Slovenian Business Points Network (SPOT), whose purpose is to offer free support services for entrepreneurs and potential entrepreneurs, and offer services of business consulting, providing information and training as well as a rich scope of services in in- ternationalisation and foreign investment. SPOT will contribute to those three areas of the industrial strategy (green, creative and smart development). 2. Innovative Environment Subjects (SIO) for effective services for entrepreneurship and innovation, and designing a balanced programme of support to drive, grow, develop and preserve enterprises. Thus, we will contribute to: SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 155 • Increasing the number of new enterprises, especially those that create higher added value compared to the Slovenian average. • Increasing the level of survival of newly founded enterprises. • Overcoming the obstacles of rapidly growing enterprises. 3. A supportive environment in the field of creativity that will be based on supporting creativity in the sense of developing cultural and creative sectors (CCS) and connecting those CCS with the rest of the economy. Currently, the latter is supported within the Creativity Centre, Network of Research Art and Culture Centres. 4. Supporting environment for start-up and scale-up enterprises (so-called Startup Plus Programme): the programme comprises all key support needed by innovative start-up companies for rapid global growth. In addition to the financial incentives of the fund (subsidies, convertible loans, ownership investment), the programme also includes an intensive mentorship programme and training in several quality and specialised con- tent programmes. 5. Innovation hubs: we will strengthen digital and other innovation hubs intended for innovation cooperation and connecting the public and private sectors which are the platform for the cooperation of various stakeholders and groups that want to achieve the best innovation results with a significant emphasis on concrete content. Innovation cooperation and connection in the East Slovenia cohesion region must be strengthened. Modern internationally comparable innovation hubs offer both content and infrastruc- tural support to developmental and research projects of SMEs with the aim of successful international commercialisation of knowledge and technologies. 6. Knowledge transfer offices: their purpose is to connect public research organisations and the economy. Their activity includes the preparation, mediation and adaptation of a technologically suitable and market-appropriate offer prepared by researchers from public research enterprises on the basis of identifying the technological, research and development needs of the economy. Offices direct researchers to meet the needs of the economy, raise awareness in enterprises about the availability of research capacities, and direct enterprises to use the services that research organisations can offer. Researchers must be qualified with knowledge about the market, buyers and entrepreneurship. Strategic development and innovation partnerships or so-called SRIP are important within the supporting environment and these are discussed further later in this document.

5.2 — Promotion of creativity, entrepreneurship and

5.2. Promotion of creativity, entrepreneurship and innovation Initiatives to strengthen the culture of creativity, entrepreneurship and innovation must be made to create a positive innovation micro-climate in Slovenia. The programme for mo- tivating young people to develop creativity, entrepreneurship and innovation (hereinafter referred to as CEI) has brought certain results. This programme aims to develop qualities in 156 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 young people that are important for entrepreneurship – from creativity, initiative, and ac- cepting risks and responsibilities to self-confidence and performing in public. We will strive to introduce the culture of a creative, entrepreneurial and innovative way of thinking and understanding intellectual property in all parts of the educational system (across the curric- ulum), i. e. in kindergartens and higher education facilities as well as in enterprises for the education of suitable staff. Efforts should be made to promote entrepreneurship and carry out measures to encourage entrepreneurship among special target groups (e.g. youth, women, families). The promotion and internationalisation of industry through the coherent operation of supporting networks and organising conferences, consultations, seminars and workshops in Slovenia and in the international environment are key. For more than twenty years, the granting of awards and promotion of the best Slovenian innovation has been in progress in Slovenia, based on regional selection of the best inno- vation, a process which ends in the selection of the best national innovation. Awards for innovation not only bring a confirmation to award winners and promotion in Slovenia and abroad, but they are also interconnected, therefore the project should be continued, acceler- ated and upgraded with additional content activities.

5.3 — Support to start-up, growth, development and

5.3. Support to start-up, growth, development and preservation of enterprises In this framework, innovative start-ups and scale-ups, the development of other enterprises and a successful transfer of ideas of entrepreneurial individuals and groups in successful cooperation must be promoted because this has a positive economic and social meaning. Initiatives will focus on niche markets and support a green and digital transition. It is of key importance that enterprises, especially SME, in both cohesion regions have access to proper financing sources as this is one of the most difficult obstacles to overcome for all enterprises. Debt and ownership sources of financing should be strengthened respectively. From the aspect of growth, development and preservation of enterprises, small value initia- tives (e.g. vouchers) are also important, since enterprises have access to services in digitali- sation, intellectual property protection, certificates, training and outsourcing in other areas, as well as major development and innovation projects that are strategically important for the country. It is important to support research, development and investment via tax relief; enterprises must be actively motivated to invest in new products that have to be competitive at the global level. It is important to promote patents and brand protection applications as well as support the introduction of concrete new technologies that promote creativity and competitiveness (e.g. AI, VR). One of the important pillars of knowledge and technologies transfer contributing to eco- nomic growth is the so-called spin-out and spin-off enterprises of public research organisa- SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 157 tions. These enterprises create new jobs and have great potential to become innovative and rapidly growing, therefore a normative environment that is comparable with the EU must be introduced in Slovenia for the foundation of such enterprises.

5.4 — Strengthening non-technological innovation

5.4. Strengthening non-technological innovation While enterprises, especially SME, deal with the challenges of green and digital transition, they require a wider understanding of the term innovation, which cannot only be limited to technology, but must also include all types of innovation, from the most common prod- uct and process innovation to marketing, organisational and social innovation. The existing SMEs are not necessarily innovative start-ups in the classical sense. Measures must be taken in such enterprises to promote innovative business and management solutions and creativity in the wider sense. Non-technological innovation that is based on innovating processes, services and business models is often that which makes the difference between individual products and creates added value. Innovation often does not arise from R&D, but is based on the user’s problem and the use of existing technologies and products. Innovation can be a new business model that arises from considering user experience, the use of digital technologies (e.g. sharing platform) or including services (after-sales services, repairs etc.). Social innovation is essential because it mostly involves new ideas (products, services, mod- els) that effectively respond to society’s needs and create new social relationships and coop- eration. This involves innovation that also enhances society’s ability to act. The key difference between an innovation and social innovation is that, in addition to having economic value, social innovation also addresses the needs and challenges of society, thus creating a social effect. In this sense, social economy should also be strengthened as it has the key role in cre- ating jobs and social inclusion. Connecting with CCS is of key importance, especially through design, architecture and de- sign management, as well as other processes that promote the development of non-tech- nological innovation. Design management is an example of strengthening creativity and improving competitiveness in enterprises, and it has proven to be exceptionally successful. In Slovenia, this was supported via two design management competence centres (DMCC) (2013–2015 and 2017–2019). In a DMCC 2.0 project that lasted 2.5 years (2017–2019), 37 enterprises and a total of 1,433 employees were included in training. The results after the end of the project were very good. By improving business processes and products, profit growth in enterprises within the project increased by 104%, while added value per employee increased on average by 12%. 158 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 6. SMART DEVELOPMENT Smart industry, which can also be called Industry 4.0, has become a trend that is a strategic priority in many industrial enterprises. Enterprises combine advanced connectivity, automa- tion, cloud technologies, sensors, different production processes, intelligent algorithms, IoT (Internet of Things) and artificial intelligence. The essence is complete control of the entire business process via a digital platform. This can involve production, logistics, resource man- agement, material tracking and similar. Like technology, business processes are also important because they change with the introduction of digitalisation. The same applies to value chains. For smart industry that must adapt quickly to the common EU digital market, the strength- ening of digitalisation of operations, services, products and business models, accelerated investment in research, development and innovation, networking and connecting various stakeholders, strengthening competences and also promoting international connection of enterprises are very important. The key issue here remains understanding the market, the product and user problems that can be resolved with advanced technological solutions. So- cietal challenges must be resolved with modern technologies and products that will help society and consequently be successful in the market must be developed. Enterprises should be encouraged to create their own digital strategies that supplement business strategies and implement them. Accelerated automation also brings a lower need for traditional jobs. From this aspect, we should address the re-qualification of workers, creating competences for the jobs of the fu- ture, potentially adapted work forms and working hours (shortened working hours, work from home, sharing ...), and changes that arise from circular business models (increasing the reuse services, remanufacturing ...). Digitalisation should support a green and creative transition. The resilience of a digitalised industry to cyber threats and attacks is of key importance for its long-term success and survival. Therefore, a high level of cyber security should be ensured in a smart industry through appropriate systems and procedures, training and awareness-raising. In January 2021, the EC published a report entitled Industry 5.0: Towards a sustainable, human-centric and resilient European industry,33 which focuses on the industrial worker as a human being. Industry 5.0 complements the current paradigm of Industry 4.0 by em- phasising research and innovation as the driving force for a transition to European industry that is sustainable, focused on the human being/individual and resilient. Industry 5.0 seeks to capture the value of new technologies for achieving prosperity that surpasses the goals of jobs and growth while respecting planetary boundaries and placing the well-being of the industrial worker at the heart of the production process. The purpose is 33 https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/industry-50_sl. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 159 to consider the current social restrictions and not leave anyone behind. This assumes a series of appropriate measures to respect human rights and ensure a safe digital working environ- ment. The industrial worker receives a new role in which they are not considered as a cost, but as an investment that will enable the development of the company and of the worker. Employers must be interested in investing in the skills, abilities and well-being of the employ- ee. An important precondition for Industry 5.0 is that technology must serve the people and not vice versa. In the industrial context this means that technology is used, and production is adapted to the needs and diversity of industrial workers instead of workers adapting to the constantly developing technology. Workers must be empowered, and their working environ- ment must be inclusive. Therefore, every worker must be closely included in the co-design- ing and introduction of new technologies, including robotics and artificial intelligence. To enhance safety at work, robots would assume a large number of repetitive and simple tasks.

6.1 — Digitalisation and smart solution strengthening

6.1. Digitalisation and smart solution strengthening The economy should be renewed by using modern technologies, the highest process safety, increasing the level of automation and robotisation, and the use of digital technologies and artificial intelligence, consequently contributing to a more effective use of resources and en- ergy. Introducing smart factories would increase productivity by a factor of 10, at the same time it would enable the personalisation of products and solutions. Introducing digital solu- tions must be carried out at several levels. At the EU and national level, legislation, cyber security rules and consumer safety should be adapted along with the introduction of digital technologies in the operations of enterprises in all areas. New legislation must also have an estimated impact on the digital legislation. These processes are changing the image of indus- try and the method of operation. This is proven by Slovenian enterprises that also cooperate with the leading enterprises in the global market by introducing smart automated produc- tion and the use of artificial intelligence. The empowered person – worker must be placed at the forefront in accordance with the developing concept of Industry 5.0. Measures in digitalisation enable enterprises to have a simple and rapid breakthrough in the foreign market, and an expansion of operations in the existing foreign market, shorter time of certain operations, processes, optimisation and more effective search for resources and effective purchasing, lower administration costs, enhanced transparency over business pro- cesses and enhanced sales in foreign markets, the improvement of the competitive position, simplification of distribution channels, expansion of the market and business reach, conse- quently higher income, improvement of interaction with clients, more accurate and easily accessible information about the enterprise, suppliers, buyers, target markets, increasing the speed of operations, increasing market share and the rationalisation of the business model. Therefore, we will need a strong digital infrastructure that includes the active collaboration of various stakeholders with the aim of putting Slovenia on the map of successful and reference countries in smart and green industry. Fast and reliable broadband connections (fixed and mobile), including rural areas, are necessary for the development of key online social and economic services. Introduction of 5 G depends on the timely allocation of the 5G spectrum. 160 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 We do not wish to address only the digital transformation of ordinary enterprises, but we want to offer support to the faster development of digital enterprises. Improving the dig- ital knowledge and skills of workers could relatively quickly enhance their employability and support the economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Introducing us- er-friendly e-administration services and digital public services would help to reduce the administrative burden on enterprises. Although numerous public online services are already available, efforts to enhance the trust of people in online transactions and their safety will be needed by individuals and enterprises (e.g. introduction of the national electronic identifier, ensuring cyber security and protecting privacy). Smart industry will also consider the National programme on encouraging the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) by 2025 (NpAI), which has been harmonised with the SDS 2030. The NpAI includes the industrial 4.0 revolution among the global challenges to es- tablish new economic operation models and overall social and environmental development. Digital transformation also represents the industry’s transformation into Industry 4.0, in which Slovenia will be able to compete on a European and global scale. Digital transforma- tion and digitalisation in the production enterprise will have to be defined on two levels, at the level of digitalisation of products, services and creating digital business models (smart) and the digitalisation of processes and operations. This will present savings at all levels of operation and increase productivity and competitiveness in the global market. The principles of installed cyber security must be considered in development. In addition to updating the economy by digitalising operations and introducing smart solu- tions in own operations, we need to promote the development of operations of the economy by using new technologies such as IoT, artificial intelligence, digital platforms and similar, for new digitalised services, products and business models. This must be based on an un- derstanding of the market, competition, own buyers and users and focus on a modern user experience. A successful and fast development in this direction, which is necessary for com- SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 161 petitiveness, can be encouraged by developing the digital competences of employees in enter- prises and by gaining inclusion in new development partnerships and value chains through ICT sector enterprises and knowledge institutions to develop higher added value products or a higher level of integration. In this way we can connect multidisciplinary knowledge for creating modern digital services, products and business models, which will be, in addition to productivity, the second necessary condition for economic competitiveness, the increase of added value and successful internationalisation or increasing exports to demanding markets by increasing the share of high technology products. In this way, Slovenian industry can ex- pand export markets and become more resilient.

6.2 — Promoting the development, research and

6.2. Promoting the development, research and innovation cycle Together with the Research and Innovation Strategy, the Industrial Strategy directs measures into promoting a comprehensive developmental, research and innovation cycle from TRL 1-9 by emphasising priority areas that arise from the Slovenian Smart Specialisation Strategy (S4), which will be systemically steered via the new Act on Scientific, Research and Innova- tion Activity. We will also achieve the redirection of industry from supplying components to a niche-focused co-creator of technologically developed products. Circular and digital by design concepts should be considered in product design. It is essential that priorities are not defined ‘from the top down’ but on the basis of partnership between the economy, knowledge institutions, the state and other stakeholders. It is important to establish a system of research equipment use that encompasses the supple- mentation of the introduced list of available research equipment and the introduction of a connection between the users and owners of equipment. Investment in research and development will also emphasise, in addition to supporting a green and digital transition, resolving other social challenges (e.g. pandemics). Funds that arise from the EU Fund for Recovery and Resilience and Horizon programmes. We should also promote the use of the European patent with unitary effect when the system enters into force. Through its use, SMEs would protect their inventions at a lower price in those EU countries that cooperate in the European patent with unitary effect.

6.3 — Networking and cooperation

6.3. Networking and cooperation Networking and cooperation in research, development and innovation is of key importance. Therefore, the development of Strategic Development and Innovation Partnerships (SDIP), which in every S4 priority area combine the key stakeholders in the economy, research sphere and others, will continue. Together with the state, they not only co-design the development 162 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 policy but also organise a comprehensive development and innovation ecosystem by indi- vidual S4 areas. In practice, this means introducing various organisational bridges (round tables where different stakeholders cooperate in designing strategies and development pro- grammes) and value chains in Slovenia and, by inclusion in international chains and in- ternational development and innovation platforms by preparing demanding development projects, establishing joint performances and international promotion. Ambitious goals for internationalising knowledge and solutions should be set, for which Slo- venian enterprises would use the support of the ecosystem (country, research sector, non-gov- ernmental sector) to offer comprehensive high technology solutions for larger environments. Other forms of connecting and networking, i.e. clusters, digital innovation hubs, competence centres and other informal forms of connecting are also important. Digital innovation hubs (DIH) and similar subjects are exceptionally important for creating an entire ecosystem for the cooperation of different stakeholders and target groups. This has been recognised by the European Commission, which dedicates a considerable amount of attention and funds within the Digital Europe Programme (DIGITAL)34 as it wants to introduce a network of European Digital Innovation Hubs (EDIH). In accordance with the EC guidelines, Slovenia has determined this area in the Digital Innovation Hubs guidelines in Slovenia after 202035. The key purpose of such cooperation between the stakeholders of private, public, research, academic and local environment is the digital transformation that must reach all areas of everyday life. The recognition of advanced digital technologies must be strengthened, advantages and risks must be identified, and individuals must be qualified, enterprises must also obtain access to the infrastructure for testing advanced digital technol- ogies (laboratory equipment or a testing environment is too expensive for SMEs). The key guideline is that such services should be close to the user, which is an advantage in Slovenia due to the small size of the country. International cooperation and searching for new busi- ness opportunities will also be an important added value of the EDIH network, as well as the transfer of best practices, transfer of knowledge and searching for joint solutions.

6.4 — Strengthening and developing new competences,

6.4. Strengthening and developing new competences, re-qualification, new forms of work The realisation of smart industry must focus on strengthening employee competences. The platform for predicting needs by competences has an important role here because it will enable the timely training and education of employees on the basis of monitoring trends and market needs for the upcoming new tasks dictated by continuous industrial development. Appropriate training and education programmes will be designed on the basis of monitoring the gaps in employee competences. They will strengthen the competences necessary for work 34 Digital Europe Programme. 35 Digital Innovation Hub Guidelines in Slovenia after 2020 . SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 163 and green, smart, digital and creative development. The measures must enable the acquisi- tion and strengthening of interdisciplinary and soft skills. Through re-qualification and additional qualifications of employees who will need new com- petences due to the digitalisation and introduction of Industry 4.0, the number of unem- ployed in the labour market will reduce. Measures must be comprehensive, and they should include the entire vertical structure, beginning in primary schools with appropriate educa- tional content and quality career orientation to qualify pupils, students and adults for de- velopment and career planning. Measures should promote the acquisition of competences in smart and digital areas (job shadowing). Employees should also be enabled to do various types of jobs, considering the trend of job personalisation, where this is appropriate. New work methods and forms require a higher level of job development, which enables the coop- eration and effective performance of jobs. The transition to digital is possible only if workers have developed digital competences36 and if they perform work effectively with the help of these. Furthermore, measures must cover the retention of existing highly educated staff and attract them from abroad and allow for a flexible transition of workers from knowledge institutions and the education system to the economy and vice versa, which also promotes connecting knowledge and practice as well as interdisciplinarity. The timely discovery and preservation of talent in the economy, knowledge institutions and education institutions, and the develop- ment of the careers of employees with the purpose of re-qualification and additional qualifi- cation are of key importance for development. One of the most important and most successful instruments from the aspect of networking in the area of joint and targeted investment in the knowledge, skills and competences of employees are competence centres for HR development (CCHR). At the beginning of 2010, the CCHRs were the first example of a successful connection of enterprises and investment in employee knowledge. By adopting the S4 in 2015, they became the main instrument of support for investment in the knowledge and skills of employees for the needs of smart spe- cialisation. CCHR supplement the work of SDIP in HR development of knowledge and skills to achieve a comprehensive approach in the triangle of HR development, promotion of inno- vation and competitiveness and investment in R&D. CCHR ensure professionally specific training and education that is recognised as necessary for the development and competitiveness of an individual sector or business. An important advantage of CCHR implementation is that enterprises design their education and training content and are flexible in choosing education courses providers. A total of 600 enterprises via more than 50,000 inclusions in training programmes cooperated in the implementation of CCHR, designed as networks of enterprises, in the 2014–2020 period (327 enterprises were supported within the 2019–2022 tender, 22,352 inclusions in various training pro- grammes designed to strengthen the competitiveness of Slovenian enterprises by developing key competences are planned). Competence centres will serve the upgrade of the knowledge and skills of employees, developing competency models, strengthening business networking 36 Digital competences are of key importance for education, work and active participation in the digital society. The EC has in cooperation with member states prepared the Digital Competence Framework for Citizens Dig- Comp 2.1. and constantly updated), which contains 21 competences in the following areas: information literacy, communication and cooperation, preparation of digital content, security and problem solving. 164 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 and exchanging best practices in HR development, with a special emphasis on the develop- ment of knowledge in smart specialisation with the purpose of supporting enterprises in the digital transformation and transition to Industry 4.0.

6.5 — Internationalisation

6.5. Internationalisation The purpose of internationalisation is to promote greater openness for the international en- vironment. Fast progress demands constant adaptation, increasing of effectiveness, reducing costs and searching for new opportunities in the domestic and foreign markets. Internation- alisation is necessary for the survival of enterprises, especially SMEs. The preparation of the Programme for the promotion of investments and Slovenian business internationalisation is in progress. The programme sets three strategic areas in the centre: sustainability, innovation and digitalisation. The measures will aim to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and to work in the direction of a dynamic, resilient and competitive Slovenia. The main objectives of the programme are to diversify exports, increase the number of export- ers (SMEs), gain positioning in global value chains, reduce the backlog of incoming foreign direct investment behind other EU countries, effect target orientation and improve the effi- ciency of the ecosystem. Internationalisation in research, development and innovation is also important. Therefore, it is necessary to: • Speed up the inclusion in European and global development and research as well as tech- nological projects, initiatives and programmes (e.g. Horizon, Eureka, European Space Agency, European Defence Agency, CERN, FAIR, CTA, Life+ programmes), • Promote cooperation with different European and international institutions (e.g. Euro- pean Institute of Technology - EIT/ Knowledge and Innovation Communities - KICs, Biobased industry Joint Undertaking - BBI JU), • Strengthen cooperation with the current and new networks of the support environment and other stakeholders abroad (e.g. European Enterprise Network – EEN, EU DIH net- work), • Identify and monitor technological achievements/trends in the European and global market, and transfer from and to Slovenia best practices which encompass international economic events, the Innovation Radar Network, a network of economic representatives abroad, international network in CCS and entrepreneurship, such as European Creative Business Network (ECBN), Creative Business Network and others. The option to carry out pilot and demonstration projects in internationalisation will be stud- ied with the purpose of exporting knowledge and services in foreign markets and diversi- fying the Slovenian economy faster. A feasibility study will be carried out in the first phase (whether an individual product/service is appropriate for an individual foreign market); if the study proves feasibility, the enterprise can be included in the selection of the pilot and demonstration project in an individual foreign market in the second phase. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 165 7. GUIDELINES FOR CONNECTED GREEN, CREATIVE AND SMART DEVELOPMENT As indicated in section 2.4, the scope of measures for the implementation of SIS has been greatly standardised. But it is of key importance for individual measures to have proper guid- ance and to support green, creative and smart development in the execution phase. Examples of measures include research, development and innovation, which are the main drivers of economic growth, but where and how they are guided to support the desired direction of development is important. The tools of economic policy for achieving goals are material and non-material initiatives. Those that direct consumption and thus determine market behav- iour that is based on responsible demand are also crucial. A review of the implementation of SIS 2021–2030 guidelines will be monitored by the MGRT as the responsible line ministry every two years. GUIDELINES by individual sets of measures Respon- Evaluation sible line of financial minis- assets37 tries 2021–2030 1. Research, development and innovation (RDI): MGRT, EUR 4 bil-

1.1 — Increasing the share for RDI to 3% of GDP, of which the public MIZŠ, lion (includ

1.1. Increasing the share for RDI to 3% of GDP, of which the public MIZŠ, lion (includ- part will be 1%. SVRK ing tax relief

1.2 — Preservation of 100-percent tax relief for investments in RDI. for RDI

1.2. Preservation of 100-percent tax relief for investments in RDI. for RDI

1.3 — Connecting the entire development cycle from TRL-1 to TRL-9. and return

1.3. Connecting the entire development cycle from TRL-1 to TRL-9. and return – Harmonised consecutive financing of projects from early devel- resources) opment phases to launch.

1.4 — Development and strengthening of research infrastructure

1.4. Development and strengthening of research infrastructure.

1.5 — Introducing the system of research equipment use that encom

1.5. Introducing the system of research equipment use that encom- passes the supplementation of the introduced list of available research equipment and the introduction of networking between equipment users and owners. Promoting open innovation.

1.6 — Accelerating the transfer of technology and knowledge for fast

1.6. Accelerating the transfer of technology and knowledge for fast commercialisation of results and development.

1.7 — Strengthening the number of (young) researchers in the economy

1.7. Strengthening the number of (young) researchers in the economy and supporting researchers at the start of their careers.

1.8 — Considering circular and digital by design concepts – inclusion of

1.8. Considering circular and digital by design concepts – inclusion of this demand in public tenders. 37 Evaluation of financial assets based on the needs and envisaged sources from the Multiannual Financial Frame- work (Cohesion Policy 2021–2027), Recovery and Resilience Facility, Climate Change Fund and the budget of the RS. 166 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 GUIDELINES by individual sets of measures Respon- Evaluation sible line of financial minis- assets37 tries 2021–2030

1.9 — Strengthening RDI in new and alternative as well as naturally

1.9. Strengthening RDI in new and alternative as well as naturally renewable materials, products, services and technologies, by considering the modern approach (life cycle analysis LCA, digital twins etc.).

1.10 — Development of modern technologies and products in accord

1.10. Development of modern technologies and products in accord- ance with the guidelines of the new Resolution on the National Research and Development Programme and Slovenian Smart Specialisation Strategy (priority investments in niche areas with the greatest potential for growth and breakthrough to internation- al markets). 2. Demonstration and pilot projects MGRT, EUR 250

2.1 — Support for pilot and demonstration projects (e.g. for production MIZŠ, million

2.1. Support for pilot and demonstration projects (e.g. for production MIZŠ, million of synthetic methane and hydrogen) and demonstration centres, MOP, contributing to green, creative and smart transition, which will MZI, enable the promotion of solutions and knowledge. MJU

2.2 — Demonstration and pilot projects in internationalisation, the pur

2.2. Demonstration and pilot projects in internationalisation, the pur- pose of which is to export knowledge and services to foreign mar- kets and to speed up the diversification of the Slovenian economy.

2.3 — Introduction of pilot examples of cascaded use of wood and natu

2.3. Introduction of pilot examples of cascaded use of wood and natu- rally renewable materials for closing material flows and improving the use of waste: return logistics, sorting, monitoring flows, etc.

2.4 — Demonstration and pilot projects in energy intensive industry for

2.4. Demonstration and pilot projects in energy intensive industry for introducing new low-carbon technologies for improving energy and material efficiency, maintaining competitiveness and prevent- ing carbon leakage.

2.5 — Demonstration and pilot projects for promoting the replacement

2.5. Demonstration and pilot projects for promoting the replacement of fossil raw materials (biorefineries that will support the develop- ment of bio-based materials on the basis of biomass). 3. Inclusion in international research and development as well as MGRT, EUR 30 innovation projects and programmes MIZŠ million

3.1 — Accelerating the inclusion in European and global research and

3.1. Accelerating the inclusion in European and global research and development as well as innovation projects, initiatives and pro- grammes, international research infrastructure.

3.2 — Promoting cooperation with various European and international

3.2. Promoting cooperation with various European and international institutions and supporting environment networks.

3.3 — Identifying and monitoring technological achievements/trends in

3.3. Identifying and monitoring technological achievements/trends in the European and global market, transfer of best practices. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 167 GUIDELINES by individual sets of measures Respon- Evaluation sible line of financial minis- assets37 tries 2021–2030 4. Networking and cooperation in research, development and MGRT, EUR 25 innovation MIZŠ, million

4.1 — Upgrading strategic development and innovation partnerships SVRK,

4.1. Upgrading strategic development and innovation partnerships SVRK, (SDIP) and introduction of new technologies and best practices MJU in various fields, speeding up the cooperation and development of stakeholders by individual areas.

4.2 — Speeding up other forms of cooperation of business entities with

4.2. Speeding up other forms of cooperation of business entities with research and development institutions and other stakeholders.

4.3 — Introduction of a platform for accelerating cooperation of existing

4.3. Introduction of a platform for accelerating cooperation of existing and new stakeholders of the quadruple helix within S4 by intro- ducing or upgrading infrastructural, research and development as well as content conditions for an innovation support environment.

4.4 — Accelerating development partnerships for strengthening digital

4.4. Accelerating development partnerships for strengthening digital products, services and business models. 5. Support environment for enterprises MGRT, EUR 50

5.1 — Introducing a connective, inclusive and complementary platform MJU million

5.1. Introducing a connective, inclusive and complementary platform MJU million ecosystem that will be built from entities and programmes in the fundamental areas of society (economy, academic, scientific and research sphere, public sector, local communities and the wider society).

5.2 — Strengthening the support environment for a circular economy

5.2. Strengthening the support environment for a circular economy and digitalisation, including support for developing a digital econ- omy by creating new value chains, product innovation, innovation of solutions and new business models.

5.3 — Further development and upgrade of services of supporting

5.3. Further development and upgrade of services of supporting entities, especially in the direction of green, creative and smart development. 6. Promotion of entrepreneurship and innovation MGRT EUR 10

6.1 — Promotion of innovation and entrepreneurial culture as a positive million

6.1. Promotion of innovation and entrepreneurial culture as a positive million value (e.g. via public media, cooperation at events, business meet- ings and fairs with regard to entrepreneurship, craft and inno- vation, selection and upgrade of the best Slovenian innovations, etc.).

6.2 — Comprehensive promotion and awarding of creativity, entrepre

6.2. Comprehensive promotion and awarding of creativity, entrepre- neurship and innovation (CEI).

6.3 — Promotion of strategic development and innovation partnerships

6.3. Promotion of strategic development and innovation partnerships and smart specialisation (promotion of development break- throughs that are the result of introducing smart specialisation).

6.4 — Promotion of entrepreneurship in special target groups

6.4. Promotion of entrepreneurship in special target groups.

6.5 — Promotion and opening of new market paths in the domestic and

6.5. Promotion and opening of new market paths in the domestic and foreign markets.

6.6 — Strengthening of brands, including the positioning of Slovenia as a

6.6. Strengthening of brands, including the positioning of Slovenia as a green, creative and smart country (green.creative.smart ambassa- dors). 168 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 GUIDELINES by individual sets of measures Respon- Evaluation sible line of financial minis- assets37 tries 2021–2030 7. Promotion of start-ups and enterprises with rapid growth poten- MGRT EUR 40 tial million

7.1 — Promotion of the foundation of new innovative enterprises (start

7.1. Promotion of the foundation of new innovative enterprises (start- ups) and fast growing (scale-up) enterprises. Special emphasis will be given to starting circular and digital enterprises.

7.2 — Promotion of connection of enterprises with mentorship systems

7.2. Promotion of connection of enterprises with mentorship systems and business mentors.

7.3 — Promotion of connection of start-ups with “mature” enterprises

7.3. Promotion of connection of start-ups with “mature” enterprises. 8. Support for the growth, development and preservation of enter- MGRT, EUR 150 prises, especially SME MOP, million +

8.1 — Strengthening debt financing sources (subsidising interest rates, MZI, repayable

8.1. Strengthening debt financing sources (subsidising interest rates, MZI, repayable micro loans, micro warranties, loans and mezzanine loans, guar- MJU funds antees, etc.).

8.2 — Strengthening ownership financing sources (strengthening and

8.2. Strengthening ownership financing sources (strengthening and effectively managing seed and risk capital) and developing new modern forms of financing.

8.3 — Introducing small value initiatives (e.g. vouchers) for special con

8.3. Introducing small value initiatives (e.g. vouchers) for special con- tent that supports green, creative and smart development.

8.4 — Accelerating the digital and circular transformation of enterprises

8.4. Accelerating the digital and circular transformation of enterprises: encouraging the introduction of modern digital technologies into operations of enterprises, creating new products, services and business models and creating development partnerships for these purposes.

8.5 — Initiatives for strengthening the wood processing sector

8.5. Initiatives for strengthening the wood processing sector.

8.6 — Improving energy efficiency in enterprises, also including the

8.6. Improving energy efficiency in enterprises, also including the introduction of energy management, introducing the ISO 50001 system and other important standards and certificates in environ- ment and energy. 9. Non-technological innovation and business models MGRT EUR 60

9.1 — Support for non-technological innovation and innovative business million

9.1. Support for non-technological innovation and innovative business million models (process and organisation innovation, new business man- agement solutions, new business models and innovative methods of enterprise internationalisation on the basis of joint investments of knowledge, technologies and capital).

9.2 — Development and restoration of business models and process im

9.2. Development and restoration of business models and process im- provements for speeding up the transition to a circular and digital economy, also by using modern technologies (optimising business flows, optimising material flows and their usage, line automation, sharing ...).

9.3 — Support for design management and connecting cultural and

9.3. Support for design management and connecting cultural and creative sectors and enterprises. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 169 GUIDELINES by individual sets of measures Respon- Evaluation sible line of financial minis- assets37 tries 2021–2030 10. Promotion of investments MGRT EUR 300

10.1 — Promotion of strategically important initial investments of domes- million

10.1. Promotion of strategically important initial investments of domes- million tic and foreign investors.

10.2 — Support for investment for introducing Industry 4.0 and a

10.2. Support for investment for introducing Industry 4.0 and a low-carbon circular economy.

10.3 — Green procurement in investments

10.3. Green procurement in investments. 11. Internationalisation MGRT, EUR 100

11.1 — Promotion of internationalisation in accordance with the Pro- MZZ million

11.1. Promotion of internationalisation in accordance with the Pro- MZZ million gramme for the promotion of investments and Slovenian business internationalisation.

11.2 — Enabling and enhancing internationalisation via digitalisation

11.2. Enabling and enhancing internationalisation via digitalisation.

11.3 — Promoting joint performance of enterprises in value chains in the

11.3. Promoting joint performance of enterprises in value chains in the global market. 12. Strengthening competences, training, requalification, adaptation MGRT, EUR 30 to demographic change MDDSZ, million

12.1 — Development of platforms to strengthen the competences of MIZŠ

12.1. Development of platforms to strengthen the competences of MIZŠ employees and management staff in all branches of industry and in the circular and digital transformation of the economy in general.

12.2 — Strengthening the competences necessary for green, creative and

12.2. Strengthening the competences necessary for green, creative and smart development, considering global trends. 13. Infrastructure MGRT, EUR 300

13.1 — Development of necessary infrastructure that enables the devel- MOP, million

13.1. Development of necessary infrastructure that enables the devel- MOP, million opment of green, creative and smart industry (modern fixed and MZI, mobile connections, 5G, blockchain, development of facilities to MJU enhance material and energy efficiency and use, open standardised data platforms, e-identity, infrastructure for e-business among companies, etc.).

13.2 — Connecting industry in local energy communities and utilising

13.2. Connecting industry in local energy communities and utilising waste heat.

13.3 — Investing in infrastructure to enhance self-supply with regard to

13.3. Investing in infrastructure to enhance self-supply with regard to waste management.

13.4 — Support for energy self-supply industries

13.4. Support for energy self-supply industries. 170 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 GUIDELINES by individual sets of measures Respon- Evaluation sible line of financial minis- assets37 tries 2021–2030 14. Legislation and business environment All line -

14.1 — Promotion of sustainable production and consumption; raising minis

14.1. Promotion of sustainable production and consumption; raising minis- the awareness of the public regarding the positive effects of using tries natural renewable resources.

14.2 — Creating a stimulating economic environment (clear, consistent

14.2. Creating a stimulating economic environment (clear, consistent and feasible legislation, fast procedures for acquiring permits, en- couraging a fiscal framework, etc.) for investment in a low-carbon circular economy.

14.3 — Creating and strengthening markets for secondary materials and

14.3. Creating and strengthening markets for secondary materials and accelerating industrial symbiosis.

14.4 — Green or circular public procurement to support the use of

14.4. Green or circular public procurement to support the use of natural/renewable resources (e.g. supporting wood construction through green public procurement).

14.5 — Promoting standardisation (active inclusion in co-designing and

14.5. Promoting standardisation (active inclusion in co-designing and supporting the use of international standards), use of international certificates and intellectual property protection.

14.6 — Introduction of a normative environment, comparable at the Euro

14.6. Introduction of a normative environment, comparable at the Euro- pean level, to establish spin-offs. REVIEW OF FUNDS OF THE MGRT FROM 2020 TO 2022 The envisaged integral funds for the 2020–2022 period for the implementation of measures through the MGRT account for more than EUR 91 million, which is supplemented with repayable funds measures. Other ministries also contribute to the implementation of indi- vidual measures (MIZŠ, MOP, MJU, MZI) from their budget funds. We will especially promote RDI, investments, entrepreneurship and the circular economy through European cohesion funds in the 2020–2022 period, and will earmark more than EUR 265 million from OP ECP 2014–2020. A very important segment of initiatives are re- payable funds as loans, guarantees and capital inputs. In the 2021–2027 period, we will provide funds for measures under the Recovery and Resil- ience Fund in the planned amount of EUR 427 million and from the Multiannual Financial Framework (around EUR 450 million) as well as the Just Transition Fund (approx. EUR 235 million). All these EU funds have not been confirmed by the EC; therefore the final value is still unknown. There is a risk that not all activities will be implemented on a scale that would ensure achieve- ment of the set goals, if sufficient incentives from the state are not ensured. Most measures are based on the envisaged funds from the MGRT; however, they are tied to the multiannual funds, plans and programmes of the ECP. Individual or additional funds from other ecosys- tem stakeholders (especially private ones) are not included in those envisaged funds. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 171 The funds envisaged for the implementation of measures (national budget - realisation 2020, adopted 2021 and 2022, OP ECP – realisation 2020, rights of use 2021, 2022) FUNDS 2020 FUNDS 2021 FUNDS 2022 SOURCE (IN EUR) (IN EUR) (IN EUR) Research, development and inno- 20,512,122 21,352,629 15,049,437 ECP vation (RDI) Demonstration and pilot projects 23,969,999 23,369,594 15,221,773 ECP Inclusion in international research 9,810,346 13,152,217 11,725,663 ECP and and development as well as inno- Integral vation projects and programmes Networking and cooperation 1,947,220 3,922,838 3,453,106 ECP and in research, development and Integral innovation Supporting environment for 11,165,308 12,289,594 12,019,780 ECP and enterprises Integral Promotion of entrepreneurship 323,191 270,000 270,000 Integral and innovation Promotion of start-ups and enter- 1,980,559 2,160,000 2,160,000 ECP prises with rapid growth potential Support to growth, development 28,421,058 26,498,677 4,582,939 ECP and preservation of enterprises, especially SME Non-technological innovation 3,638,858 3,081,470 4,066,820 ECP and business models Promotion of investments 7,803,120 12,325,891 15,000,000 Integral Internationalisation 14,965,086 17,813,082 14,413,600 ECP and Integral Strengthening competences, 36,210 550,000 553,346 Integral training, requalification, adapta- tion to demographic change TOTAL 124,573,077 136,785,992 98,516,464 172 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 8. REVIEW OF CONTRIBUTIONS BY INDIVIDUAL SETS OF MEASURES TO INDIVIDUAL GOALS A review of the contributions of individual sets of measures has been made on the basis of the table in section 6 and on the basis of individual goals under section 1.3. KEY selected goals 2030 Labour Export GREEN Creative Smart productivity (goal in Resource Innovation index DESI In- (the goal in 2030, produc- and rise on scale dex (goal Sets of measures 2030 is EUR EUR tivity EII among lead- in 2030, 66 thousand 29.8 (goal in ing innovators 60 points, added value billion) 2030, 3.50 (goal in 2030, 10th per employee) SKM/kg) 110% in EU) place) INVESTMENTS IN RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 1. Research, development and innovation (RDI): Tax relief for      R&D and financial incentives with an emphasis on projects that express the option for speedy commercialisation of innovation in the form of new products, services or patents (TRL 6-9). 2. Demonstration and pilot projects RDI: Incentives for      supporting the most promising projects that contribute to the development of new technolo- gies with an emphasis on green and digital. 3. Inclusion in international research and development as    well as innovation projects and programmes: promotion of design and inclusion in interna- tional research and development as well as innovation projects and programmes with the aim to break through to foreign markets. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 173 KEY selected goals 2030 Labour Export GREEN Creative Smart productivity (goal in Resource Innovation index DESI In- (the goal in 2030, produc- and rise on scale dex (goal Sets of measures 2030 is EUR EUR tivity EII among lead- in 2030, 66 thousand 29.8 (goal in ing innovators 60 points, added value billion) 2030, 3.50 (goal in 2030, 10th per employee) SKM/kg) 110% in EU) place) 4. Networking and coopera- tion in research, development    and innovation: managing and connecting established networks of innovation ecosystem stake- holders in Slovenia with certain measurable success parameters (new products, new patents, new international cooperation). PROMOTING ENTREPRENEURSHIP 5. Supporting environment for enterprises: measures for    promoting start- and scale-ups, access to key information in one place, measures for digital trans- formation, measures for devel- oping new business models. 6. Promotion of entrepreneur- ship and innovation: commu-     nication campaigns, support for conferences, meetings and exhibitions, award programmes for entrepreneurship and innovation, entrepreneurship ambassadors. 7. Promotion of start-ups and enterprises with rapid growth     potential: initiatives for new en- terprises, mentorship schemes, connection. 8. Support for growth, devel- opment and preservation of      enterprises, especially SME: beneficial debt financing (loans, guarantees, interest rates), seed and risk capital, initiatives for wood processing sector and energy transformation. 174 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 KEY selected goals 2030 Labour Export GREEN Creative Smart productivity (goal in Resource Innovation index DESI In- (the goal in 2030, produc- and rise on scale dex (goal Sets of measures 2030 is EUR EUR tivity EII among lead- in 2030, 66 thousand 29.8 (goal in ing innovators 60 points, added value billion) 2030, 3.50 (goal in 2030, 10th per employee) SKM/kg) 110% in EU) place) 9. Non-technological inno- vation and business mod-      els: support in introducing alternative business models (digital operations, sustainable operations ...), new internation- alisation methods, automation of production processes. PROMOTION OF INVESTMENTS AND INTERNATIONALISATION 10. Promotion of investments: initiatives for strategic invest-     ments and investments with greater added value growth potential and an emphasis on green and digital. 11. Internationalisation: per- formances in foreign markets,    establishing representative of- fices, strengthening delegations, promotion of joint performance of enterprises in foreign mar- kets. INVESTMENTS IN HUMAN RESOURCES 12. Strengthening competences and training: supporting mod-      els for predicting competences and strengthening knowledge and education needs for pro- fessions of the future with an emphasis on green, creative and smart development. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 13. Infrastructure: support to the construction of 5G, e-servic-      es, local energy communities. 14. Legislation and business environment: stability and pre-   dictability, normative regulation comparable at the European level. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 175 9. CONCLUSION The Industrial Strategy sets the guidelines for the economy’s transition to a green, creative and smart economy and thus to an increase in competitiveness. During the preparation of this strategy, the world has been facing the coronavirus pandemic, thus making the chal- lenge even greater than ever before. The biggest challenge of this moment is most certainly an economic, social and general recovery of countries. All this demands changes in the way of thinking and functioning in all areas. Thinking outside the box has become a necessity. Without a structural restoration of the European and Slovenian economy in the direction of a sustainable, inclusive and regionally balanced development, this will not be possible. We need to catch the wave of the fourth industrial revolution. Slovenia has the opportunity to use available European funds to ensure the needed investments in research and development, innovation, digitalisation, education and training for various professions of the future. The priority in the investment of European funds is to ensure the long-term competitiveness of the Slovenian economy. The new 2021–2031 strategy determines the goals for the developmental break-through of Slovenian industry and the path to achieving those goals. The goal of the Industrial Strategy to 2030 is to achieve EUR 66,000 added value per employee, to transition to a circular econ- omy and to strengthen the innovation drive of enterprises. Many measures that will focus on strengthening green, creative and smart development and help enterprises to change their business processes and reinforce their long-term position in the global market will be availa- ble for the implementation of the strategy in the coming years. This strategy aims to integrate into the wider context of the EU Industrial Strategy, which highlights the joint commitment of the EU, its member states and regions, industry, SMEs and other interested parties to a renewed partnership. Europe will be able to exploit industrial transformation in the direction of a green and digital transition, and at the same time increase the strategic autonomy of the economy. The Think Small First principle has been in place in the EU for many years, meaning that when adopting laws, we first need to think about the micro enterprises that do not have enough resources to adapt to change. This Industrial Strategy aims to introduce the Think Green, Creative and Smart First principle, meaning that we want every measure, every devel- opment of a new product, service or business model, start-up of a new enterprise, new invest- ments to initially think about how and in what way we can contribute to green, creative and smart development. In this way, we will strengthen our position and the international com- petitiveness of our industry and ensure that it remains a vital part of the Slovenian economy. 176 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 LIST OF MOST COMMONLY USED ABBREVIATIONS ARRS Slovenian Research Agency BAT Best available technologies GDP Gross Domestic Product GAV Gross Added Value CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CCU Carbon Capture and Utilisation CEE – 4 Group of 4 central European countries – Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia DESI index The Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) DMC Domestic Material Consumption AV Added value EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation EII Energy Intensive Industry EC European Commission ETS Emission trading system EU European Union EGD European Green Deal GZS Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia ICT Information and communication technologies IoT Internet of Things PRO Public research organisations DMCC Design Management Competence Centre CI Creative industries CCS Cultural and creative sector LCA Life cycle assessment LULUCF Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 177 MDDSZ Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities MF Ministry of Finance MGRT Ministry of Economic Development and Technology MIZŠ Ministry of Education, Science and Sport MJU Ministry of Public Administration MOP Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning SME Small and medium enterprises MZI Ministry of Infrastructure NECP National Energy Climate Plan NGO Non-governmental organisations RRA Research and developmental activity RDI Research, development and innovation R&D Research and development S4 Slovenian Smart Specialisation Strategy SID Slovenska izvozna in razvojna banka d.d. SIO Innovative Environment Subjects SIP Slovenian Industrial Policy SIS Slovenian Industrial Strategy PPS Purchasing Power Standard SPIRIT Public Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for the Promotion of Entrepreneur- ship, Internationalisation, Foreign Investments and Technology SPOT Network of Slovenian business points SPS Slovenian Enterprise Fund SRIP Strategic development and innovation partnership SRSS Slovenian Regional Development Fund SDS 2030 Slovenian Development Strategy 2030 SURS Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia SVRK Government Office of the Republic of Slovenia for Development and Europe- an Cohesion Policy GHG Greenhouse gases TRL Technology Readiness Level CEI Creativity, entrepreneurship and innovation 178 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 APPENDICES

Appendix 1:

Appendix 1: Processing activities in Slovenia in 2008–2018 Number of entities In 2018, there were 19,705 active enterprises in processing activities (legal entities or enter- prises, natural persons or sole proprietors and sole proprietors with normalised expenses, which have recorded revenue or labour costs). In the past decade, the number of enterprises increased by 1.3% per year and by 1.7% in the past five years. Compared to 2008, in 2018, the increase in the number of enterprises in processing activities was the largest in food (1,513 employees), machine-building (517 employees), wood (459 employees) and metal industry (295 employees). The number of enterprises dropped in textile, paper, chemical, electrical and non-metal industry (from 282 in textile to 18 in non-metal industry). In 2018, most enterprises were active in metal industry (23% of all), followed by machine-building (17%), wood (16%) and food industry (13%). Share of enterprises in processing activities in 2018 Food 4% Textile 13% 17% Wood 6% Paper Chemical 4% Non-metal 16% Metal Electrical 23% 7% Machine-building 6% 3% Other Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 179 Methodology description The operations of processing activities is the analysis on the basis of data on op- erations of business entities by Ajpes (annual financial statements of enterprises, public services, sole proprietors, associations, cooperatives, etc.) as well as data from the tax return for the prepayment of income tax on income from activity, added value tax and corporate income tax, collected by FURS. Food industry: C10 Manufacture of food and C11 Manufacture of beverages; textile industry: C13 Manufacture of textiles, C14 Manufacture of clothes, C15 Manufacture of leather and leather products; wood industry: C16 Processing and reprocessing of wood, C31 Manufacture of furniture; paper industry: C17 Manufacture of paper and paper products; C18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media; chemical industry: C19 Manufacture of coke and oil derivatives, C20 Manufacture of chemicals, C21 Manufacture of pharmaceutical raw materi- als, C22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products; non-metal mineral prod- ucts: C23; metal industry: C24 Manufacture of metals, C25 Manufacture of metal products; electrical industry: C26 Manufacture of computers, electronic and optic products, C27 Manufacture of electrical devices; machine-building industry: C28 Manufacture of other machinery and devices, C29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, C30 Manufacture of other vehicles and vessels, C33 Repairs and installation of machinery and devices; other activities: C32 other processing activities. Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS 180 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Sales revenue in processing activities Business entities in processing activities in 2018 generated EUR 31.3 billion sales revenue on the basis of the sales value of products or merchandise sold and charged to buyers as well as material and implemented services. In 2018, processing activities generated EUR 5.4 billion more revenue than in 2008, or they nominally grew by 21%. In the last eleven years, processing activities in average generated EUR 25.4 billion sales revenue, due to conjuncture and greater integration in international flows in the past five years, the average sales revenue was EUR 27.4 billion. In the past ten years (2018/2008), revenue in processing activities mostly increased in ma- chine-building (EUR 1.6 billion), chemical (EUR 1.3 billion), electrical (EUR 1.3 billion) and metal industry (EUR 1.2 billion). Textile and wood industry in 2018 did not reach the 2008 level due to bankruptcies of many enterprises as well as due to restructuring (reduction of manufacture in existing enterprises). The crisis in 2009 affected most sectors in processing activities, but most industries exceeded the level of the year before the crisis. Trends in sales revenues among processing activities, 2008=100 145 Food 135 Textile 125 Wood 115 Paper 105 Chemical 95 Non-metal 85 Metal 75 Electrical 65 Machine- 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 building Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past five years (2014–2018), revenue in processing activities increased on average by 5.6% per year. Within processing activities, the highest increases were recorded in ma- chine-building industry (by 8.3% per year), other processing activities (by 7.8% per year), wood and metal and electrical industry (6.7% or 6.6% per year respectively). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 181 Sales Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR38 revenue 2018 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 31,279 25,360 5,450 21.1% 27,446 5.6% Food 2,384 2,196 125 5.5% 2,263 2.2% Textile 895 846 -173 -16.2% 812 2.9 % Wood 1,415 1,191 -58 -3.9% 1,247 6.8% Paper 1,297 1,188 10 0.8% 1,226 2.7% Chemical 6,048 5,010 1,375 29.4% 5,473 3.6% Non-metal 1,014 907 9 0.9% 919 3.4% Metal 6,431 4,951 1,198 22.9% 5,559 6.7% Electrical 4,387 3,454 1,337 43.8% 3,870 6.6% Machine-building 6,995 5,275 1,583 29.3% 5,739 8.3% Other 484 380 115 31.3% 420 7.8% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Sales in the domestic market Sales in processing activities in the domestic market in the past ten-year period mostly in- creased in the past two years (2017 and 2018). It was higher due to higher consumption among the population and enterprises. Net sales revenue drastically dropped in 2009, while two cycles of a reduction in sales in the domestic market in 2012–2013 and in 2015 followed. Sales revenue in the domestic market in 2018 amounted to EUR 9.4 billion and dropped in 38 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 182 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 the past ten years by an average of 0.7% per year. In the past eleven years, processing activ- ities created an average of EUR 8.6 billion sales revenue in the domestic market. In 2018, compared to 2008, processing activities recorded EUR 682 million less in sales revenue in the domestic market, which accounts for a 6.8% drop. In the past ten years (2018/2008), revenue in the domestic market decreased only in the ma- chine-building industry (EUR 27u million), in other processing activities (EUR 16 million) and metal industry (EUR 44,000). All other activities in sales in the domestic market have not yet reached the level recorded in 2008. The largest shortfalls were recorded in non-metal industry (EUR 244 million), textile (EUR 188 million) and food industry (EUR 124 million). In the past five-year period (2014–2018), revenue in the domestic market increased by an average of 2.6% per year. Revenue in the domestic market in processing activities on average mostly grew in wood industry (5.9% per year), electrical and metal industry (3.9 and 3.8% per year), paper (3.6% per year) and chemical industry (3% per year). Revenue in the do- Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR39 mestic market 2018, 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 9,364 8,639 -682 -6.8% 8,628 2.6% Food 1,638 1,630 -124 -7.0% 1,620 0.1% Textile 212 238 -188 -46.9% 203 1.5% Wood 754 650 -14 -1.9% 668 5.9% Paper 585 534 -73 -11.1% 514 3.6% Chemical 1,271 1,166 -35 -2.7% 1,164 3.0 % Non-metal 403 434 -244 -37.7% 370 1.2% Metal 2,223 1,913 0 0.0% 1,993 3.8% Electrical 829 764 -48 -5.4% 772 3.9% Machine-building 1,311 1,185 27 2.1% 1,201 1.4% Other 138 123 16 13.3% 122 3.3% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Sales in the foreign market After the start of the crisis in 2009 and a drastic drop in domestic demand as well as exports, processing activities quickly made up for the losses in exports. In 2018, processing activities recorded EUR 21.7 billion export and by 43.8% or EUR 6.6 billion exceeded the exports recorded in 2008. In the past ten years (2018/2008), exports mostly increased under processing activities, i.e. in machine-building, metal, chemical, electrical and non-metal industry. Only the textile industry in 2018 did not manage to reach the levels of exports from 2008. In the past five years (2014–2018), exports in processing activities increased by an average of 7.3% per year. Among processing activities, exports on average mostly grew in other processing activities 39 Average annual growth (geometrical average). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 183 (by 9.9% per year), wood (9.6% per year) and metal industry (by 9.4% per year) as well as electrical and machine-building industry (8.9% and 8.8% per year). Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Within the processing sectors in 2018, the major exporters were in the machine-building industry, which generated EUR 5.5 billion in exports or 25% of the exports in the entire pro- cessing sector, followed by the chemical industry with EUR 4.8 billion, metal with EUR 4.3 billion and electrical industry with EUR 3.5 billion in exports. The latter exports 83% of the total exports in the processing sector. Revenue 2018 Ø 2008– 2018– Change Ø 2014– CAGR40 in foreign market EUR 2018, 2008, in % 2018, in the mio EUR EUR mio 2018– EUR mio 2014–2018 mio 2008 period) PROC. ACT. TOTAL 21,764 16,406 6,634 43.8% 18,627 7.3% Food 630 470 243 62.7% 548 7.4% Textile 661 581 -21 -3.1% 578 2.9% Wood 777 571 203 35.3% 652 9.6 % Paper 743 629 197 36.1% 696 3.8% Chemical 4,762 3,861 1,391 41.3% 4,322 3.9 % Non-metal 589 459 181 44.4% 532 5.4% Metal 4,293 3,010 1,427 49.8% 3,582 9.4% Electrical 3,525 2,534 1,266 56.0% 2,953 8.9% Machine-building 5,479 4,089 1,603 41.4% 4,512 8.8% Other 304 201 143 89.1% 253 9.9% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Enterprises in processing activities in 2018 achieved a 70-percent share of revenue in foreign markets in sales revenue in processing activities. By more active collaboration and searching 40 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 184 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 out new markets for processing activity, the share of exports in revenue increased by 59% in 2008. In 2018, the electrical industry was most export oriented (it generated an 80-percent share in exports), followed by chemical (79%), machine-building (78%) and textile industry (74%). Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Share of revenues in foreign markets, in %, 2018 90% 79% 80% 78% 80% 74% 70% 67% 70% 63% 55% 57% 58% 60% 50% 40% 26% 30% 20% 10% 0% s d tile W Pape etal trica bu ga Fo o Te oo Ch r l Ot ild ctivi x d em ica M Ele he in tie No n- m l c rind g et al ine - us Pr ac tries oces h s in M Sales in foreign EU markets (where we include only the data of enterprises and sole proprie- tors, which otherwise present the majority of exports) are the most important for processing activities, as 80% of total exports or EUR 17.2 billion exports of goods and services was gen- erated in this market. The EU export market was most important for the machine-building industry, as among processing activities in 2018 in the EU, the latter exported 29% of total EU exports, followed by metal (21%), chemical (19%), electrical industry (15% or EUR 4.9 billion of export), while the paper, textile and food industries in the EU export 3.5–2.5% of total exports in processing activities in the EU. Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Sales revenue in the EU market in the past ten years increased by an average of 4.5% per year. In 2008, sales revenue in EU markets accounted for EUR 11.1 billion (exports to Croatia were SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 185 not included) and in 2009 they dropped to EUR 9 billion. In 2011, they exceeded the level of the pre-crisis year, then exports to those markets were accelerated due to the favourable economies of the EU. In the past five years, processing activities in EU markets created an average of EUR 14.6 billion in sales revenue. In the past five years (2018/2014), revenue in the EU market in processing activities increased by an average of 8.5% per year, relatively the most in the food industry (13.6% per year), which is among the least export-oriented indus- tries in processing activities. In terms of growth in the past five years, the aforementioned industries are followed by wood (11.8% per year in average), electrical, machine-building and metal industry (10% per year). Net sales revenue in non-EU markets (where we only consider data for enterprises and sole proprietors) is less relevant for processing activities than the EU markets, but exports to those markets have been strengthening. In 2018, processing activities exported 20% of total exports to non-EU markets, which accounted for EUR 1.5 billion of exports of goods and services. The largest exporters to non-EU markets in 2018 were in the chemical industry, achieving EUR 1.5 billiion in exports or 34% of the exports of the total processing sector outside the EU, followed by electrical (20%), metal (15%) and machine-building industry (12%). In the past five-year period (2014–2018), revenue from exports to non-EU markets in processing activities increased by an average of 3.1% per year. Among the processing activities, exports to non-EU markets on average mostly increased in other processing activities (14% per year), textile (9% per year), metal (8.7% per year), electrical industry (5.4% per year), and dropped in the paper, wood and food industry (from 3 in wood to 1.5% per year in the food industry). Revenue 2018 Ø 2004– Ø Change 2018 Ø 2004– CAGR41 in foreign market EUR mio 2018, In %/year EUR mio 2018, in the EU mar- EUR mio (2014– Non-EU EUR mio 2014– ket EU mar- 2018) markets Non-EU 2018 ket EU mar- markets period ket PROC. ACT. TOTAL 17,239 14,595 8.5% 4,526 4,031 3.1% Food 431 358 13.6% 199 189 -1.4% Textile 498 456 1.3% 164 122 9.0% Wood 687 563 11.8% 90 89 -1.9% Paper 601 542 5.9% 142 154 -2.9% Chemical 3,216 2,896 5.5% 1,547 1,427 0.9% Non-metal 462 409 6.3% 127 123 2.5% Metal 3,625 3,047 9.6% 668 535 8.7% Electrical 2,625 2,172 10.2% 901 781 5.4% Machine-building 4,920 4,000 9.8% 559 512 2.1% Other 174 153 7.3% 130 100 14.0% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS 41 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 186 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Number of employees In 2018, processing activities employed 202,000 people, who worked for employers (legal en- tities, sole proprietors and other registered natural persons), who received salaries and were included in mandatory social insurance based on employment contracts, which accounts for 20,000 people or 8.9% fewer than in 2008. In this period, the number of employees mostly grew in chemical (+5,081 employees), machine-building (+2,066 employees, especially in repairs and installation of machinery and devices) and electrical industry (+847 employees), there was a reduction especially in textile (-11,731 employees), wood (-9,219 employees) and paper industry (-3,337 employees). There was an average of 189,708 employees in the past eleven years (2008–2018) and 187,546 employees in the past five years (2014–2018). In the past five years, the number of employees increased by 2.6% per year, mostly in chemical, metal and machine-building industry, the largest drop was recorded in paper, textile and non-metal industry. Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 187 Number Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR42 of employees 2018 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 201,896 189,724 -19,586 -8.8% 187,581 2.6 % Food 16,247 15,565 -1,054 -6.1% 15,288 2.1% Textile 9,166 12,142 -11,728 -56.1% 9,325 -2.5% Wood 13,169 14,536 -8,858 -40.2% 12,398 1.6% Paper 5,705 8,467 -5,840 -50.6% 7,495 -7.3% Chemical 24,712 23,804 -2,194 -8.2% 22,752 1.7% Non-metal 6,967 7,459 -1,958 -21.9% 6,840 -0.4% Metal 42,712 38,378 -79 -0.2% 39,496 3.7% Electrical 28,024 25,965 848 3.1% 26,115 2.2% Machine-building 41,193 35,704 2,074 5.3% 37,161 3.6% Other 4,315 4,149 -484 -10.1% 4,099 2.6% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Added value and gross margin In costs of factors, added value is calculated as gross income from business activities after adjustments for subsidies for operations and indirect taxes. Generated added value that rep- resents the difference between sales revenue and some other operating revenue (gross oper- ating return) and costs of goods, materials and services as well as other operating expenses, 42 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 188 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 amounted to EUR 8.8 billion in 2018 in processing activities or EUR 2.1 billion (30.7%) more than in 2008. Added value in processing activities in the past eleven years on average amounted to EUR 6.9 billion per year. The largest drop in added value in processing activities was recorded in 2009, an average increase of 2.7 percent was recorded in the past ten years per year. Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In terms of the structure of added value of all processing activities in 2018, most added value was created by chemical industry (23% share), followed by machine-building (20.4%), metal (19.8%), food (6.7%) and wood industry (5%). Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past ten years (2018/2008), added value in processing activities mostly increased in machine-building and chemical industry (EUR 598 billion), metal (EUR 456 million), elec- trical (EUR 330 million) and food industry (EUR 124 million). Textile, paper and wood industry in 2018 did not reach the added value level from 2008. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 189 Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past five years (2014–2018), added value in processing activities on average grew by 7% per year and recorded EUR 7.8 billion added value on average. Added value in process- ing activities mostly increased in other processing activities (9.8% per year), by 9% in metal industry, 8.7% in wood and 8.2% per year in machine-building industry. Added value 43 Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR44 2018 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 8,812 6,901 2,068 30.7% 7,775 7.0 % Food 593 490 124 26.5% 527 6.2% Textile 263 250 -51 -16.3% 240 4.3 % Wood 439 350 -1 -0.3% 373 8.8% Paper 300 301 -26 -8.1% 307 0.5 % Chemical 2,022 1,583 570 39.2% 1,776 5.8% Non-metal 337 274 27 8.6% 294 6.2 % Metal 1,748 1,301 456 35.3% 1,550 9.0 % Electrical 1,115 901 330 42.1% 1,021 6.1% Machine-building 1,795 1,322 570 46.5% 1,534 8.2 % Other 170 129 42 33.1% 149 9.8% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Gross margin (share of added value in revenue) has in the past five years fluctuated between 28 and 29%, which means that there was no qualitative progress made at the level of sold products and services, but the increase in added value was mostly connected to a greater manufactured quantity of products or services. Compared to 2008, the gross margin in 2018 was 43 2.1 value Added percentage points in costs of factors.higher. In that time, the largest increase in gross margin was re- 44 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 190 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 corded in food, machine-building and chemical industry as well as in metal and non-metal industry, while it dropped in textile and paper industry. Among all processing sectors in 2018, the highest gross margin was recorded in other pro- cessing activities (35%), followed by chemical industry (34%), non-metal (33%) and wood industry (29%), while the lowest was recorded in paper and food industry (25%). Gross margin45 in % Value 2018 Ø 2018– Ø 2014– Difference CAGR46 in % 2018 2018 2018–2008 in the 2014–2018 period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 28.2% 27.1% 28.3% 2.1 p.p. 1.3% Food 24.9% 22.3% 23.3% 4.1 p.p. 3.9% Textile 29.4% 29.6% 29.6% 0.0 p.p. 1.3% Wood 31.0% 29.3% 29.9% 1.1 p.p. 1.9% Paper 23.1% 25.3% 25.1% -2.2 p.p. -2.1% Chemical 33.4% 31.5% 32.4% 2.4 p.p. 2.1% Non-metal 33.2% 30.1% 32.0% 2.4 p.p. 2.7% Metal 27.2% 26.1% 27.9% 2.5 p.p. 2.1% Electrical 25.4% 26.1% 26.4% -0.3 p.p. -0.4% Machine-building 25.7% 25.0% 26.8% 3.0 p.p. -0.1% Other 35.2% 33.6% 35.4% 0.5 p.p. 1.8% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Added value per employee Added value per employee in 2018 in processing activities amounted to EUR 44,000 or 43% more than in 2008. Added value in processing activities per employee in the past eleven years on average amounted to EUR 36,000 per year. The largest drop in added value per employee in processing activities was recorded in 2009 (-12%), an average increase of 3.7 percent was recorded in the past ten years per year. 45 Gross margin is the calculation added value in revenue. 46 Average annual growth (geometrical average). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 191 Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Added value per Value 2018, Ø Value Change in % Ø Value CAGR48 employee47 EUR 2008–2018, 2018–2008 2014–2018, in the in EUR in EUR 2014–2018 million million period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 43,645 36,464 43.3% 41,364 4.3% Food 36,521 31,515 34.7% 34,454 4.0% Textile 28,731 21,802 90.7% 25,810 6.9% Wood 33,347 24,818 66.8% 30,006 7.1% Paper 52,595 36,426 85.9% 41,636 8.4% Chemical 81,840 67,032 51.6% 77,954 4.0% Non-metal 48,323 37,119 39.2% 43,026 6.6% Metal 40,920 33,750 35.5% 39,120 5.1% Electrical 39,803 34,701 37.8% 39,061 3.8% Machine-building 43,571 36,860 39.1% 41,144 4.5% Other 39,434 31,045 48.0% 36,272 7.0% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past ten years (2018/2008), added value per employee in processing activities mostly increased in wood and textile industry (EUR 14,000), non-metal (EUR 13,000), other pro- cessing activities (EUR 13,000) and machine-building industry (EUR 12,000). 47 Added value per employee is the calculation ofadded value i in costs of factors with regard to the number of employees. 48 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 192 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past five years (2014–2018), added value per employee in processing activities on av- erage grew by 4.3% per year and recorded EUR 41,371 added value per employee. In the past five years, added value per employee was highest in chemical (EUR 61,000), non-metal (EUR 43,000), paper (EUR 38,000) and machine-building industry (EUR 41,000). The largest in- crease was achieved in wood industry (7.6% per year), other processing activities (7% per year), textile (6.9% per year) and non-metal industry (6.5% per year). The lowest added value in the past five years was recorded in textile (EUR 26,000) and wood industry (EUR 30,000). Labour costs in added value Labour costs, which in most enterprises represent the highest expense among operating ex- penses, amounted in 2018 in processing activities to EUR 5.4 billion and increased eight times in the past five years, with the exception of 2009 and 2013. Labour costs in 2018 com- pared to 2008 increased by 24.4%. In the past eleven years, processing activities on average recorded EUR 4.3 billion labour costs, in the last five years labour costs due to greater pres- sure on salary growth on average amounted to EUR 4.7 billion. Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 193 In processing activities in the past ten years (2018/2008) labour costs despite the drop in the number of employees increased in chemical (EUR 349 million) and machine-building indus- try (EUR 346 million), which was mostly affected by new employment, and in metal industry EUR 280 million) due to a rise in wages. In textile, wood and paper industry, labour costs in 2018 were lower than in 2008 because the number of employees in these sectors more than halved, so that labour costs dropped between 10 and 35%. Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past five-year period (2014–2018), labour costs in processing activities on average in- creased by 5.9% per year. Labour costs in processing activities mostly increased in metal and machine-building industry (7.3% per year), by 6.5% per year in other processing activities, 6.1% per year in chemical industry and 6% per year in electrical industry. Labour costs Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR49 2018, 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 5,376 4,333 1,056 5.9% 4,693 5.9% Food 364 312 48 4.9 % 324 4.9 % Textile 180 192 -100 0.5% 165 0.5 % Wood 271 253 -67 4.7% 241 4.7% Paper 200 189 -24 2.5% 188 2.5% Chemical 1,079 832 349 6.1 % 938 6.1 % Non-metal 186 170 9 2.6% 171 2.6% Metal 1,106 847 280 7.3% 954 7.3% Electrical 741 594 194 6.0% 650 6.0% 49 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 194 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Labour costs Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR49 2018, 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period Machine-building 1,153 863 346 7.3% 978 7.3% Other 99 79 25 6.5% 85 6.5% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS The share of labour costs in added value tells us what share of added value remains after labour force payments for the capital owner for development, investment, costs of financing, taxes, payment or retention of profit. The share of labour costs in added value in processing activities is above 60 percent because many sectors are labour intensive with lower generated added value. In processing activities, labour costs in added value gradually dropped from 2013 to 2017, i.e. from 64.1% to 59.1%, in 2018 they increased because labour costs increased by more than the amount of the added value increase. The highest labour costs in added value were recorded in processing activities in 2009 (72.6%) because labour costs dropped by half the amount of the drop in added value due to the financial and economic crisis. In the past eleven years, labour costs in added value on average amounted to 63%, in 2008–2013 they averaged 66%, while in the next five years (2014–2018) they reached 60%. In processing activities, the highest labour costs in added value in 2018 were recorded in textile (68.4%) and paper industry (66.7%), which are labour intensive sectors and generate lower added value per employee. They are followed by electrical (66.4%), machine-building (64.2%), metal (63.3%), wood and food industry (61%). Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past ten years (2018/2008), labour costs in added value in processing activities dropped by 3 p. p., as processing activities, despite 20,000 fewer employees, generated higher added value (by 31%) along with higher labour costs (24%). In that period, labour costs in added value mostly dropped in textile and wood industry (by 21 and 15 p. p.) as well as in food industry (by 6 p. p.) and grew in chemical industry (by 2.3 p. p.). In the past five years, la- SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 195 bour costs in added value mostly dropped in non-metal and wood industry (6.9 and 6 p. p.), in which labour-intensive sectors generated products with higher added value. This is followed by non-metal processing activities, in which labour costs dropped by 4.2 p. p., and machine-building industry. Labour costs in AV Value 2018 Ø 2018– Ø 2014– Change in Change in in % 2018 2018 p. p. in p. p. 2018–2008 2014–2018 PROC. ACT. TOTAL 61.0% 63.2% 60.4% -3.0 p.p. 0.3 p.p. Food 61.4% 63.9% 61.4% -6.1 p.p. -0.4 p.p. Textile 68.4% 76.6% 68.9% -20.7 p.p. -1.3 p.p. Wood 61.8% 73.1% 64.9% -15.0 p.p. -6.0 p.p. Paper 66.7% 63.0% 61.1% -1.8 p.p. 8.1 p.p. Chemical 52.6% 52.6% 52.7% 2.3 p.p. 1.8 p.p. Non-metal 55.3% 62.6% 58.2% -1.7 p.p. -6.9 p.p. Metal 63.3% 66.2% 61.5% -0.7 p.p. 2.9 p.p. Electrical 66.4% 66.6% 63.6% -3.2 p.p. 0.4 p.p. Machine-building 64.2% 65.7% 63.9% -1.7 p.p. -1.9 p.p. Other 58.4% 62.5% 57.8% 0.1 p.p. -4.2 p.p. Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Gross operating surplus (EBITDA) and margin of gross operating surplus Gross operating surplus is surplus from operating activities after the payment of input labour factors. It can be calculated from added value in costs of factors by deducting labour costs from that value. The gross operating surplus in processing activities in 2018 exceeded EUR 3.4 billion, exceeding the level from 2008 by EUR 1 billion or 41.8%. The gross operating surplus has been constantly rising for the past six years; while in the past ten years processing activities on average recorded a 3.6-percent increase per year, in the past five years, annual growth reached 8.8%. In the past eleven years, processing activities on average generated a EUR 2.6 billion gross operating surplus and EUR 3.1 billion in the past five years. In the past ten years (2018/2008), the gross operating surplus in processing activities mostly increased in machine-building and chemical industry (EUR 224 and 221 million), metal (EUR 176 million) and electrical industry (EUR 136 million). Only the paper industry has not reached the level of gross op- erating surplus from 2008. 196 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS In the past five-year period, (2014–2018) the gross operating surplus among processing ac- tivities every year on average mostly increased in wood and textile industry (by 18 and 17% per year), other processing activities (by 16% per year), metal and non-metal (12 and 11% per year) and machine-building industry (by 10% per year). Among all processing branches in 2018, the most gross operating surplus was created in chemical industry (27% of total processing branch), followed by metal and machine-building (19%), electrical (11%), food (7%) and wood industry (5%). Gross operating sur- Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR50 plus (EBITDA) 2018 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 3,436 2,568 1,013 41.8% 3,082 8.8% Food 229 177 77 50.3% 203 8.4% Textile 83 58 49 142.4% 75 16.7% Wood 168 96 66 64.4% 132 18.2% Paper 100 111 -3 -2.8% 119 -2.9% Chemical 944 751 221 30.6% 839 5.5% Non-metal 151 104 18 13.2% 124 11.8% Metal 642 454 176 37.7% 596 12.3% Electrical 375 307 136 56.9% 372 6.4% Machine-building 642 459 224 53.7% 555 10.0% Other 71 50 18 32.9% 64 15.6% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS The gross operating surplus margin calculated as the ratio between the gross operating sur- plus and sales revenue (calculated in %) shows how much gross operating surplus is realised 50 Average annual growth (geometrical average). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 197 in the sector per monetary unit of sales revenue, shown in %. In 2018 it amounted to 11% in processing activities and was lower than in 2017 (11.7%). It increased from 2004 to 2017 and amounted to an average of 11.2% in the last five years. The highest operating surplus margin in 2018 was recorded in chemical (15.6%) and non-metal industry (14.9%), other processing activities (14.6%), while a lower margin was reported in electrical (8.5%), machine-building, textile and food industry (9%). Gross operating sur- Value 2018, Ø 2008– Ø 2014– Change in CAGR52 plus margin51, in % in % 2018, 2018 2018–2008 in the in % 2014–2018 period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 11.0% 10.0% 11.2% 1.6 p.p. 3.0% Food 9.6% 8.0% 9.0% 2.9 p.p. 6.0% Textile 9.3% 6.9% 9.2% 6.1 p.p. 13.5% Wood 11.9% 7.9% 10.5% 4.9 p.p. 10.7% Paper 7.7% 9.4% 9.8% -0.3 p.p. -5.5% Chemical 15.6% 14.9% 15.3% 0.1 p.p. 1.8% Non-metal 14.9% 11.4% 13.4% 1.6 p.p. 8.1% Metal 10.0% 8.9% 10.7% 1.1 p.p. 5.3% Electrical 8.5% 8.7% 9.6% 0.7 p.p. -0.2% Machine-building 9.2% 8.6% 9.7% 1.5 p.p. 1.5% Other 14.6% 12.8% 15.0% 0.2 p.p. 7.2% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Investments Business entities earmarked less than EUR 2 billion in 2018 for investment in tangible fixed assets or 14% more than in 2008. Gross investments in tangible fixed assets comprise all in- vestments in new and existing tangible fixed assets (buildings, machinery, patents, licences, etc.) with a useful life of longer than one year, including non-produced tangible fixed assets such as land. Investment in tangible fixed assets has been strengthening from their nadir in 2015 (EUR 1.3 billion) or historical nadir in 2010 (EUR 1.1 billion). In the past eleven years (2008–2018), enterprises on average earmarked EUR 1.4 billion per year for investment in tangible fixed assets. The last two business years (2017 and 2018) were very intensive with regard to investments, which is connected to a high utilisation of capacities in processing activities and to growth of available income. Low-cost financial resources impact the increase in investment but are not decisive in regard to their strengthening as the share of own funds in investment is increasing. 51 EBITDA margin is the calculation of operating surplus in revenue. 52 Average annual growth (geometrical average). 198 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Among all processing sectors in 2018, most gross investments in tangible fixed assets were earmarked in machine-building industry (24% in total processing activities), followed by chemical (22%), metal (21%) and electrical industry (10%), the least investments are ear- marked in textile industry, other processing activities and paper industry (below 2%). When measures in sales revenue, processing activities earmarked for gross investments in tangible fixed assets in 2018 6.3% of annual sales, which was more than in the 11-year busi- ness cycle (5.5%). The largest share of investments in sales in 2018 was achieved by wood industry (9.5% in 2018, 6.0% in 11-year average), followed by chemical (7.3% in 2018, 6.7% in 11-year period), machine-building (6.7% in 2018, 4.9% in 11-year period) and non-metal (6.7% in 2018, 6.6% in 11-year period) and metal industry (above 6% in 2018, 5.8% in 11- year period). Gross investments in Invest- Ø In- Change Change in Invest- CAGR53 tangible fixed assets ments vestment in % %/year ments in in the 2018, 2008–2018, 2018– 2014– sales 2014– EUR mio EUR mio 2008 2018 2018 2018 period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 1,975 244 14.1% 10.6% 6.3% 5.5% Food 118 -13 -9.8% 17.7% 4.9% 4.0% Textile 38 -7 -14.8% 22.2% 4.3% 4.2% Wood 134 25 22.8% 24.1% 9.5% 6.1% Paper 60 -58 -49.1% 6.2% 4.7% 4.5% Chemical 437 10 2.3% 6.9% 7.3% 6.7% Non-metal 68 -41 -37.7% 11.2% 6.7% 6.2% Metal 424 77 22.3% 16.0% 6.6% 6.1% Electrical 204 49 32.1% 1.9% 4.6% 4.9% 53 Average annual growth (geometrical average). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 199 Gross investments in Invest- Ø In- Change Change in Invest- CAGR53 tangible fixed assets ments vestment in % %/year ments in in the 2018, 2008–2018, 2018– 2014– sales 2014– EUR mio EUR mio 2008 2018 2018 2018 period Machine-building 469 194 70.4% 10.4% 6.7% 5.2% Other 24 8 47.5% 12.1% 5.0% 4.1% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS Source: SURS, Analitika GZS calculations Gross domestic expenditure for RDA (BIRR) includes internal expenditure for RDA, car- ried out in the territory of the Republic of Slovenia. Expenditure for RDA, carried out by the providers of RDA in the business sector, in processing activities in 2018 amounted to EUR 488 million in 2018 or EUR 159 million more than in 2008 (49%). In the past eleven years, expenditure for RDA in the business sector accounted for EUR 429 million, in the past five years for EUR 461 million. Most expenditure was earmarked for RDA in 2018 in the chemical industry (EUR 212 mil- lion), followed by electrical industry (EUR 129 million), machine-building industry (EUR 80 million) and metal industry (EUR 20 million). In the past ten years (2018–2008), expend- iture for RDA was most increased in the chemical and electrical industry (by EUR 53 mil- lion), followed by machine-building (EUR 22 million) and food industry (EUR 6 million). 200 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 RDA in business Value Ø Value Diff. in Change Ø Value CAGR55 sector54 2018 2008– value in % 2014– in the EUR mio 2018, 2018– 2018– 2018, 2014– EUR mio 2008, 2008 EUR mio 2018 EUR mio period PROC. ACT. TOTAL 488.6 428.5 159.3 48.4% 461.3 1.0% Food 7.6 4.7 6.2 444.8% 6.8 3.5% Textile 7.0 6.4 2.6 57.4% 6.3 -2.6% Wood 4.2 3.4 2.7 180.1% 3.9 10.7% Paper 4.4 3.1 1.6 58.4% 3.0 14.6% Chemical 204.5 191.9 45.6 28.7% 205.3 1.5% Non-metal 4.1 5.9 -0.1 -2.5% 6.4 -22.2% Metal 20.1 28.5 0.1 0.7% 24.5 -13.3% Electrical 128.8 108.8 53.3 70.7% 127.3 0.3% Machine-building 79.4 69.0 21.5 37.0% 68.0 2.4 % Other 4.6 5.1 1.9 69.5% 5.7 4.8% Source: SURS, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS 54 Internal expenditure for RDA in the business sector, by processing activities, some data are estimated due to confidentiality for 2017–2018. 55 Average annual growth (geometrical average). SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 201

Appendix 2:

Appendix 2: Processing activities in Slovenia, EU-27 and group of comparable central European countries (CEE-4) in 2008––2017 Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded a higher gross margin than the median in EU-27 countries and the median in the CEE-4 (SLO 28.5%, EUR 23.8%, CEE-4 22%). The largest deviation of Slovenia’s gross margin compared to EU states is recorded in chemical (8.8 p. p.), food (3 p. p.) and wood industry (2.8 p. p.), where Slovenia recorded the highest gross margin. Compared to the CEE-4 countries, the largest deviations were recorded in the Slovenian chemical (10.1 p. p.), electrical (8.2 p. p.) and machine-building industry (6.4 p. p.). The share of gross investment in tangible fixed assets compared to revenue was slightly higher in Slovenia than in the CEE-4 countries and higher than in the EU-27 countries (SLO 5.6%, EU 4.2%, CEE-4 5.2%). Wood, machine-building and textile industry mostly contrib- uted to a higher Slovenian share of investment in revenue compared to the EU-27. Compared to the CEE-4 countries, deviations in the share of investment in revenue are lower. Higher shares are recorded in the Slovenian wood, electrical and chemical industry, while they lag behind the CEE-4 in paper industry and other processing activities. Slovenia thus created the highest added value per employee (EUR 44.3 thousand) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 33,000 thousand) and slightly lower than the median of the EUR-27 (EUR 43.7 thousand). As per generated added value per employee and compared with other EU-27 countries, Slovenia gained the most and is further ahead among other pro- cessing activities, i.e. in other processing activities (by EUR 14,000), textile (by EUR 3,000), food (EUR 3,000) and wood industry (by EUR 2,000 added value per employee). On the oth- er hand, Slovenia is mostly behind the EU-27 (median) in chemical (EUR 8,000), electrical (EUR 3,000) and paper industry (EUR 2,000). Compared to the CEE-4 countries, Slovenia gained the most in generated added value per employee, especially in chemical industry (by EUR 20,000) and other processing activities (by more than EUR 19,000), as well as in tex- tile, wood, metal and non-metal industry (between EUR 12 and 14 thousand). Measured by added value per employee, Slovenia recorded a higher added value than comparable sectors in the CEE-4 (media). 202 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Slovenia’s deviation56 by sectors of processing activities compared to the indicator median in the group of central European countries (CEE-4), 2017 Key groups of pro- Gross Invest- EBITDA Labour AV/em- Revenue/ cessing activities margin ment/ margin costs in ployee employee in p. p. revenue in p. p. AV in p. p. in p. p. PROC. ACT. TOTAL 6.5 0.5 0.9 7.7 10,839 281 Food 4.5 -0.8 -0.1 7.4 9,520 19,632 Textile 0.3 0.4 1.6 -5.1 13,932 45,400 Wood 4.8 1.4 0.9 4.2 12,692 26,859 Paper -1.6 -4.2 -3.5 12.5 4,677 26,011 Chemical 10.1 0.7 3.8 10.5 20,364 -25,364 Non-metal 3.0 -1.8 -1.0 4.8 11,711 26,965 Metal 2.5 0.4 -0.4 5.9 12,137 34,206 Electrical 8.2 0.8 2.8 3.1 10,477 -22,085 Machine-building 6.4 0.2 0.1 8.3 6,296 -31,765 Other 5.2 -2.7 4.0 -7.4 19,347 36,315 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitizka GZS calculations Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded higher labour costs in added value (59.1%) than the median value in the EU-27 countries (56.8%) or the median value in the CEE- 4 (51.3%). Slovenia’s deviation from the CEE-4 was largest in paper and chemical indus- try, where labour costs in added value in Slovenia were higher by more than 10 percentage points, as well as in machine-building, food and metal industry (by more than 6 percentage points). Only in textile industry and other processing activities were labour costs in added value lower in Slovenia than in the CEE-4. Compared to the EU-27 countries, labour costs in added value was higher only in food, chemical and paper industry, while it was lower in other sectors. Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded significantly lower revenue per employee than in the EU-27 and slightly higher than in the CEE-4 (SLO EUR 152,000, EU-28 EUR 190,000, CEE-4 EUR 152,000). Compared to the EU-27, revenue per employee in Slove- nia mostly lagged behind in chemical (by EUR 57,009), electrical (by EUR 46,000), ma- chine-building (EUR 32,000) and non-metal industry (EUR 23,000). Only in other process- ing activities were revenues per employee in Slovenia higher than in the EU-27. Compared to the CEE-4, revenue per employee in processing activities mostly lagged behind in ma- chine-building and chemical industry (EUR 31,000 or 25,000). By revenue per employee, Slovenia was mostly ahead of the CEE-4 in textile (EUR 45,000), other processing (EUR 36,000) and metal industry (EUR 34,000). 56 The amount by which the indicator value in Slovenia is higher than the indicator median in the central Europe- an countries CEE-4. SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 203 Slovenia’s deviation57 by sectors of processing activities compared to the indicator median for the EU-27, 2017 Key groups of process- Gross Invest- EBITDA Labour AV/em- Revenue/ ing activities margin ment/ margin cost in ployee employee in p. p.58 revenue in p. p.59 added in p. p. value in p. p. PROC. ACT. TOTAL 4.7 1.5 1.5 2.3 -379 -38,048 Food 3.0 0.0 0.4 3.8 2,714 -4,797 Textile -0.1 2.0 1.8 -6.9 3,316 -1,271 Wood 2.8 2.4 0.8 0.0 2,096 0 Paper -2.6 -2.7 -2.4 2.0 -2,310 0 Chemical 8.8 1.6 4.0 2.6 -7,668 -56,751 Non-metal 2.1 -0.3 1.7 -4.7 -1,538 -23,168 Metal 0.0 1.6 0.5 -0.7 0 -1,113 Electrical -0.8 1.6 0.8 -0.3 -3,419 -45,981 Machine-building 0.2 2.1 0.6 -2.1 0 -32,280 Other 2.5 0.3 4.7 -9.3 13,999 30,145 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations The share of expenditure for RDA in the business sector in sales in Slovenia in 2017 amount- ed to 1.5%, which is more than the EU-23 median (0.7%) and CEE-4 median (0.5%). A similar dynamic was recorded in the 2008–2017 period, in which the share of expenditure for research and development of the business sector in sales in Slovenia amounts to 1.7%, 0.6% in the EU-27 and 0.4% in the CEE-4. Among the EU countries in 2017, the share of expenditure for RDA in the business sector in sales in Sweden was 3.3%, in Denmark 2.6%, in Austria and Germany 2.7%. Share of expenditure for RDA in total business sector in revenue, in % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 EU-23 (median) 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% n.a. CEE-4 (median) 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% n.a. Slovenia 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% Source: Eurostat, Analitika GZS calculations Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded significantly lower revenue per employee than in the EU-27 and slightly higher than in the CEE-4. Processing activity in Slovenia created the highest added value per employee (EUR 43.3 thousand) than the median in the 57 The amount by which the indicator value in Slovenia is higher than the indicator median in the EU-27. 58 Calculation of added value in revenue. 59 EBITDA margin is the calculation of operating surplus in revenue. 204 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 CEE-4 countries (EUR 32.5 thousand) and slightly lower than the median of the EUR-27 (EUR 43.7 thousand). Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded a higher gross mar- gin than the median in the EU-27 countries and the median in the CEE-4 (SLO 28.5%, EUR 23.8%, CEE-4 22%). The share of gross investments in tangible fixed assets compared to revenue was slightly higher than in the CEE-4 countries and higher than in the EU-27 coun- tries (SLO 5.6%, EU 4.2%, CEE-4 5.2%). Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded higher labour costs in added value than the median value in the EU-27 countries (60.5%) or in the CEE-4 (50.7%). Processing activities in Slovenia in 2017 recorded a higher EBITDA margin (business surplus/revenue) than the median in the EU-27 countries and the median in the CEE-4 (SLO 11.7%, EU-27 10.2%, CEE-4 10.8%). In the 10-year period (2008–2017) the highest EBITDA margin was recorded by the CEE-4 countries (median), which was higher than the recorded margin in Slovenia. Processing activities EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 23.8% 22.0% 28.5% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 20.8% 21.5% 27.1% Investment/revenue 2017 4.2% 5.2% 5.6% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 3.8% 4.8% 5.4% EBITDA margin 2017 10.2% 10.8% 11.7% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 9.2% 10.6% 10.0% Cost of labour in AV 2017 56.8% 51.3% 59.1% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 48.6% 50.7% 63.0% AV/employee 2017 43,703 32,485 43,324 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 40,244 29,453 35,596 Revenue/employee 2017 190,061 151,732 152,013 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 193,828 136,875 131,390 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the food industry in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employee (EUR 35,000) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 25,000) and the median in the EUR-27 (EUR 32,000). In the 2008–2017 period, added value per employee in the food industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and lower than the median in the EU-27. Food industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 20.3% 18.8% 23.3% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 20.6% 18.9% 22.0% Investment/revenue 2017 4.4% 5.2% 4.4% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% EBITDA margin 2017 8.4% 8.9% 8.8% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 8.4% 8.8% 7.9% Cost of labour in AV 2017 58.5% 54.9% 62.3% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 57.0% 53.3% 64.1% SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 205 Food industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia AV/employee 2017 31,685 24,879 34,399 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 34,876 22,691 30,891 Revenue/employee 2017 152,605 128,176 147,808 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 169,683 120,100 140,322 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In 2017, Slovenia generated higher added value per employee in textile industry (EUR 28,000 EUR) than the median in the CEE-4 (EUR 14,000) and the median in the EU-27 countries (EUR 24,000). Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 30.4% 30.0% 30.3% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 30.0% 30.0% 29.6% Investment/revenue 2017 3.0% 4.6% 5.0% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 3.8% 4.9% 3.9% EBITDA margin 2017 9.3% 9.4% 11.1% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 8.9% 10.1% 6.6% Cost of labour in AV 2017 70.5% 68.7% 63.5% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 73.3% 66.3% 77.8% AV/employee 2017 24,906 14,290 28,222 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 17,860 13,560 20,010 Revenue/employee 2017 94,331 47,661 93,060 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 59,504 45,230 67,602 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the wood industry in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employee (EUR 31,000) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 19,000) and the EUR-27 (EUR 29,000). In the 2008–2017 period, added value per employee in the wood industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and lower than the median in the EU-27. Wood industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 27.0% 25.0% 29.8% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 29.4% 25.2% 29.1% Investment/revenue 2017 4.5% 5.5% 6.9% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 4.5% 5.9% 5.7% EBITDA margin 2017 9.9% 9.7% 10.6% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 8.8% 11.5% 7.6% Cost of labour in AV 2017 64.3% 60.1% 64.3% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 53.8% 54.5% 73.9% AV/employee 2017 29,283 18,687 31,379 206 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Wood industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 31,509 19,179 23,213 Revenue/employee 2017 105,127 78,268 105,127 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 107,325 76,121 79,670 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the paper industry in 2017, Slovenia generated higher added value per employee (EUR 40,000) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 35,000) and slightly lower than the median in the EUR-27 (EUR 42,000 thousand). In the 2008–2017 period, the added value per employee in the paper industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and lower than the median in the EU-27. Paper industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 28.0% 27.0% 25.4% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 29.4% 25.4% 25.6% Investment/revenue 2017 6.9% 8.4% 4.2% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 5.8% 7.6% 5.4% EBITDA margin 2017 12.3% 13.4% 9.9% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 10.7% 12.2% 9.6% Cost of labour in AV 2017 58.9% 48.4% 60.9% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 61.2% 52.1% 62.6% AV/employee 2017 42,029 35,043 39,719 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 28,623 26,303 34,413 Revenue/employee 2017 156,277 130,266 156,277 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 97,229 103,389 134,671 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the chemical industry in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employee (EUR 80,000 thousand) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 42,000 thousand) and slightly lower than the median of the EUR-27 (EUR 70,000 thousand). In the 2008–2017 period, added value per employee in the chemical industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and the median in the EU-27. Chemical industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 24.3% 23.1% 33.2% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 19.0% 20.4% 31.4% Investment/revenue 2017 5.1% 6.1% 6.7% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 4.3% 4.6% 6.7% EBITDA margin 2017 12.1% 12.3% 16.1% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 10.2% 12.3% 15.0% Cost of labour in AV 2017 48.9% 40.9% 51.5% SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 207 Chemical industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 42.5% 39.8% 52.5% AV/employee 2017 70,364 42,331 62,696 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 67,452 43,443 57,548 Revenue/employee 2017 244,512 213,125 187,761 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 354,357 213,357 183,034 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the non-metal industry in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employee (EUR 45,000 thousand) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 33,000 thousand) and slightly lower than the median in the EUR-27 (EUR 47,000 thousand). In the 2008–2017 period, the added value per employee in the non-metal industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and lower than the median in the EU-27. Non-metal industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 30.9% 30.1% 33.0% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 30.9% 31.4% 29.8% Investment/revenue 2017 5.1% 6.6% 4.8% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 6.1% 6.9% 6.6% EBITDA margin 2017 13.0% 15.7% 14.7% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 12.5% 15.2% 11.1% Labour costs in AV 2017 60.1% 50.6% 55.4% Labour costs in AV Ø 2008–2017 54.3% 51.6% 62.8% AV/employee 2017 46,867 33,618 45,329 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 43,996 30,707 35,629 Revenue/employee 2017 160,356 110,223 137,188 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 142,197 97,885 119,399 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the metal industry in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employee (EUR 41,000 thousand) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 29,000 thousand) and the same as the median in the EUR-27 (EUR 41,000 thousand). In the 2008–2017 period, added value per employee in the metal industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and lower than the median in the EU-27. Metal industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 28.1% 25.7% 28.1% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 26.2% 24.7% 26.2% Investment/revenue 2017 4.3% 5.5% 5.8% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 5.3% 5.5% 5.7% EBITDA margin 2017 10.5% 11.4% 11.0% 208 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 Metal industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 8.9% 10.4% 9.1% Cost of labour in AV 2017 61.5% 54.9% 60.8% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 58.0% 58.3% 65.4% AV/employee 2017 40,664 28,527 40,664 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 31,181 25,213 33,110 Revenue/employee 2017 145,668 110,349 144,555 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 119,071 102,042 126,573 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the electrical industry in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employee (EUR 41,000 thousand) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 31,000 thousand) and slightly lower than the median in the EUR-27 (EUR 45,000 thousand). In the 2008–2017 period, added value per employee in the electrical industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and lower than the median in the EU-27. Electrical industry EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 27.1% 18.0% 26.2% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 23.7% 16.5% 26.3% Investment/revenue 2017 3.3% 4.0% 4.9% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 3.0% 2.9% 4.9% EBITDA margin 2017 9.3% 7.3% 10.1% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 7.6% 7.6% 9.0% Cost of labour in AV 2017 61.8% 58.3% 61.5% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 52.7% 53.3% 65.9% AV/employee 2017 45,038 31,143 41,619 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 54,585 28,315 34,322 Revenue/employee 2017 204,605 180,710 158,625 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 230,548 171,494 130,402 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In the machine-building industry in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employ- ee (EUR 44,000 thousand) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 37,000 thousand) and the same as the median in the EUR-27 (EUR 44,000 thousand). In the 2008–2017 period, added value per employee in the machine-building industry in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and lower than the median in the EU-27. Machine-building indus- EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia try Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 26.4% 20.3% 26.6% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 19.7% 22.2% 25.0% SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 209 Machine-building indus- EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia try Investment/revenue 2017 3.5% 5.4% 5.6% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 3.5% 4.8% 4.8% EBITDA margin 2017 9.6% 10.1% 10.2% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 7.0% 11.3% 8.7% Cost of labour in AV 2017 63.8% 53.4% 61.7% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 59.3% 48.3% 65.4% AV/employee 2017 43,670 37,374 43,670 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 45,308 35,744 36,204 Revenue/employee 2017 196,400 195,885 164,119 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 229,743 161,338 144,915 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations In other processing activities in 2017, Slovenia created higher added value per employee (EUR 42,000 thousand) than the median in the CEE-4 countries (EUR 23,000 thousand) and the median in the EUR-27 (EUR 28,000 thousand). In the 2008–2017 period, added value per employee in other processing activities in Slovenia was higher than the median in the CEE-4 and the median in the EU-27. Other processing activities EU-27, median CEE-4, median Slovenia Gross margin (AV/rev.) 2017 35.5% 32.8% 38.0% Gross margin (AV/rev.) Ø 2008–2017 30.4% 34.0% 33.7% Investment/revenue 2017 4.4% 7.4% 4.7% Investment/revenue Ø 2008–2017 4.9% 7.6% 5.0% EBITDA margin 2017 13.3% 13.9% 18.0% EBITDA margin Ø 2008–2017 11.2% 14.5% 13.0% Cost of labour in AV 2017 62.0% 60.0% 52.6% Cost of labour in AV Ø 2008–2017 66.8% 53.9% 61.5% AV/employee 2017 27,981 22,633 41,979 AV/employee Ø 2008–2017 24,223 21,470 30,183 Revenue/employee 2017 80,362 74,193 110,508 Revenue/employee Ø 2008–2017 79,707 63,171 89,558 Source: Eurostat, structural statistics of enterprises, Analitika GZS calculations 210 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030

Appendix 3:

Appendix 3: Mega trends Megatrend Types Threats Opportunities Technological meg- Inadequate regulatory approach Combination of mass production atrends to keep pace with technological and customisation/flexibility (Automation, lntegra- advances and social demands (e.g., using advanced technologies tion of subjects and regarding rules on data protection, Greater implication of the objects, Data-driven cybersecurity... ) customer in the production world and Cybersecuri- Low levels of cybersecurity (risk for processes ty and blockchain) operations and innovation) Development of new markets Limited social acceptability of tech- (especially using ICT) nological change Emergence of new job opportu- Limited environmental sustainability nities Limited interoperability and stand- Reduction of labour shortage ards risks in the context of an ageing population (robotisation) Limited integration of the different technologies into business processes Increased productivity Technological unemployment (es- Potential for reshoring industrial pecially in sectors such as transpor- activities to developed countries tation) (e.g. use of 3D printing) Changing skills requirements and difficulties for redundant workers Socio-politial Political tensions(domestic and Increase in business opportuni- megatrends international level) ties related to population ageing (Globalisation and Opposition to migration Increase in business opportuni- geopoliticsand Demo- ties in developing countries (pop- graphic shifts) Trade war, escalation of protection- ulation growth and economic ism (e.g. commercial tensions with development) China) Successful integration of mi- Increased unfair competition grants and older workers into the (e.g.dumping) workforce (changing HR, educa- Increased global competition and its tion and training practices) negative consequences (e.g. closure Increase in global talent pool of traditional industries) (rising and more educated pop- Failed adaptation of healthcare and ulation) welfare systems (ageing population Emergence of a new/more bal- context) anced model of globalisation (e.g. Labour shortages due to ageing/re- glocalisation) tiring population Emergence of shorter / regional Environmental adverse effects of and/or circular value chains globalisation and population growth SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030 211 Environmental and Inadequate regulatory approach (e.g. Emergence of new business smart economy meg- targets on recycling, environmental models (circular economy, ICT atrends norms, safety rules on autonomous integration in cities and trans- (Green and circular vehicles...) portation...) and challenges to economy, Urbanisa- incumbents Inertia of current economic models, tion and smartcity and lack of social acceptability (e.g.re- Development of new sectors with Slnart mobility) garding increases in fuel or carbon potential benefits for first·movers taxes) (green economy, smart citiesand mobility...) Conflict between environmental andother economic and social Rise of a urban middle class in objectives the developing world, unlocking new markets Technical difficulties in adapting business models Emergence of shorter / urban·re- gional valuechains Burden some rise in costs(energy, natural resources .. ) Better integration of cities into value chains andbusines.s strat- Technological unemployment (espe- egies cially in the transportation/logistics sector) Emergence of new forms of mo- bility / improved logistics Disadvantages of intensive urbanisa- tion (e.g. congestion costs) Increased sustainability, reduced ecological impact of human activities Climate change mitigation and- adaptation New models of cities (especially smartcities) Source: Authors of study: “How to tackle challenges in a future-oriented EU industrial strategy” on the basis of the European Observatory/ of Clusters and Industrial Change (2019). 212 SLOVENIAN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 2021–2030

Slovenian industrial strategy 2021-2030

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