Fifth Strategic Plan Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5)

2 © Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, 5th Edition of the Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), 2024/2025-2028/2029. The 5th Edition of the Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) is available online at www.minagri.gov.rw Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI). Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation: Building Resilient and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems (PSTA 5). Kigali-Rwanda,2024. Recommended Citation: http://www.minagri.gov.rw/ 3 Table of Content 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 13 1.1 The role of the Agri-food systems in Rwanda ........................................................................... 13 1.2 Policy context ............................................................................................................................ 14 2. SECTOR OVERVIEW AND PERFORMANCE ............................................................................... 17 2.1 Agri-food systems overview ...................................................................................................... 17 2.2 Agri-food sector performance in the PSTA 4 period ................................................................. 21 2.2.1 Contributions to incomes and the economy .......................................................................... 21 2.2.2 Performance towards Food Security and Nutrition ............................................................... 25 3. KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................... 31 3.1. Production level ........................................................................................................................ 31 3.2. Post-harvest and consumer level ............................................................................................. 33 4. PRIORITIES AND THE THEORY OF CHANGE ............................................................................. 41 4.1. Vision, mission, and objective ................................................................................................... 41 4.2. Impact goals ............................................................................................................................. 41 4.3. Cross-cutting priority areas ....................................................................................................... 42 4.4. Theory of change ...................................................................................................................... 45 4.5. Key innovations ........................................................................................................................ 46 PRIORITY AREA I: MODERNIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND ANIMAL RESOURCES PRODUCTION FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS ................................................ 50 Output 1.1.1: Agricultural land management and production models improved ............................. 52 Output 1.1.2: Small-holder farmers supported for household resilience ......................................... 53 Output 1.1.5: Irrigation and water resource management improved ............................................... 55 Output 1.1.6: Access to agricultural Inputs for climate-resilient production improved ................................. 56 Output 1.1.7: Plant health management enhanced ......................................................................... 57 Outcome 1.2: Modernized animal resources production and productivity ....................................... 58 4 Output 1.2.1: Animal husbandry and infrastructure in Animal Hubs improved ................................ 59 Output 1.2.2: Sustainable animal breeding established .................................................................. 60 Output 1.2.3: Access to animal feed improved ................................................................................ 60 Output 1.2.4: Animal health systems strengthened ......................................................................... 61 Output 1.2.5: Fisheries and aquaculture developed ........................................................................ 62 Output 1.2.6: Beekeeping developed .............................................................................................. 63 PRIORITY AREA II: INCLUSIVE MARKETS AND POST-HARVEST MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS. ............................................................................................ 65 Outcome 2.1: Boosted agriculture exports ...................................................................................... 65 Output 2.1.1 Export crops expanded ............................................................................................... 65 Output 2.1.2: Rwandan agri-exports de-commoditized ................................................................... 66 Outcome 2.2: Strengthened market linkages and post-harvest infrastructures .............................. 67 Output 2.2.1: Organisation models of farmers and value chain actors improved ............................ 67 Output 2.2.2: Post-harvest handling for reduced losses improved .................................................. 68 Output 2.2.3: Agriculture commodity safety and quality increased .................................................. 69 Output 2.2.4: Value addition increased ............................................................................................ 69 Output 2.2.5: Trade infrastructures improved .................................................................................. 70 Outcome 2.3: Improved food security and nutrition ......................................................................... 71 Output 2.3.1: Food security and nutrition improved ........................................................................ 71 Output 2.3.2: Households supported in nutrition-sensitive production ............................................ 72 Output 2.3.3: Food stability and mitigating related shocks ensured ................................................ 73 PRIORITY AREA III: STRENGTHENING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS ENABLERS FOR EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT DELIVERY .......................................................................................................................... 74 Outcome 3.1: Strengthened research and technology transfer for Agri-food systems transformation ....... 75 Output 3.1.1: Demand-driven research enhanced .......................................................................... 75 Output 3.1.2: Customised agriculture extension system enhanced ................................................ 76 Outcome 3.2: Strengthened agriculture de-risking for resilience .................................................... 79 Output 3.2.1: Access to agriculture finance increased .................................................................... 80 5 Output 3.2.2: Agriculture insurance scheme strengthened ............................................................. 80 Outcome 3.3: Digitized Agri-food systems ...................................................................................... 81 Output 3.3.1: Affordable digital technologies developed ................................................................. 82 Output 3.3.4: Digital competencies developed ................................................................................ 84 Output 3.3.5: Sustainable business models for digital systems and platforms developed .............. 85 Output 3.3.6: Digitalization networking strengthened ...................................................................... 86 Outcome 3.4: Strengthened Agri-food systems planning and coordination .................................... 86 Output 3.4.1: Capacity for planning and knowledge management enhanced ................................. 86 Output 3.4.2: Agri-food systems coordination and value chains developed .................................... 87 Output 3.4.4: Institutional reforms for effective implementation enhanced ...................................... 89 5. FINANCING AND ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ...................................................................................... 91 5.1 Costing methodology ............................................................................................................. 91 5.2 Financing requirements ........................................................................................................ 91 5.3 Macro-economic Impact ........................................................................................................ 92 6. MONITORING, EVALUATION, AND LEARNING PLAN ............................................................... 102 ANNEX 1: RESULTS FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................ 104 ANNEX 2: OPERATIONAL PLAN ..................................................................................................... 122 ANNEX 3: BUDGET FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................. 147 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 180 6 FOREWORD As we present the fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), we stand at a critical juncture in Rwanda’s agricultural journey. This plan, aptly titled “Building resilient and sustainable Agri food systems,” reflects our commitment to not only continue the progress we have made but to also adapt to the evolving global challenges and national priorities, with a particular focus on improving food security and nutrition in Rwanda while driving the Agri-food systems towards delivering on the country’s Vision 2050. The past few years have brought unprecedented challenges to our nation and the world. The COVID 19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, and the escalating impacts of climate change have tested the resilience of our food systems. Yet, these challenges have underscored the crucial role of agriculture in our economy and the importance of a robust, adaptable Agri-food system that ensures food security and nutrition security in a sustainable manner. PSTA 5 builds upon the foundational achievements of its predecessors, particularly the “Planning for wealth” agenda of PSTA 4. However, it advances further by adopting a holistic Agri-food system approach that places nutrition at its core. This strategy recognizes that our journey to prosperity must be underpinned by sustainability, resilience, and a focus on nutritious food for all. Our five-year vision in PSTA 5 is ambitious yet achievable. We aim to modernize crops and animal resources production, reduce post-harvest losses, strengthen market linkages, boost exports, and ensure food and nutrition security for all Rwandans. We will harness the power of technology, promote climate-smart agriculture, and create opportunities for our youth and women in the Agri-food sector. Importantly, we will prioritise the production and accessibility of nutrient-dense foods, promote biofortified crops, and implement nutrition-sensitive, environment-friendly practices for both crops and animal resources. At the core of our strategy are innovative approaches such as the AgriHubs concept, which will concentrate resources to specific production areas and foster synergies among Agri-food systems actors to drive agricultural transformation in Rwanda. We will also leverage private sector engagement more than ever before, recognizing that sustainable growth arises from partnership between government, farmers, and businesses. These partnerships will not only be crucial in developing and distributing nutritious foods and fortified products but in boosting the commercialisation capabilities of our farmers. As we implement PSTA 5, we remain committed to Rwanda's Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) and to the country’s international commitments, including the Sustainable Development Goals and the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. Our focus is particularly on SDG 2, which aims to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. I invite all stakeholders – farmers, private sector actors, development partners, nutritionists, and fellow Rwandans – to join us in this transformative journey. Together, we can build an agricultural sector that nourishes our nation, drives our economy forward and creates prosperity and good health for all. Mark Cyubahiro Bagabe, PhD Minister of Agriculture and Animal Resources 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The development of PSTA 5 has been a collaborative effort, drawing on the expertise, insights, and dedication of numerous individuals and organizations. We extend our heartfelt gratitude to all who have contributed to this strategic plan, particularly those who have helped shape our Agrifood systems focused approach. We thank our farmers, whose resilience and hard work form the backbone of our agricultural sector. Their insights and experiences have been invaluable in shaping this strategy, especially in understanding the challenges and opportunities in producing diverse, nutritious crops and animal resources based products. We are grateful to our development partners, whose continued support and technical assistance have been crucial in the formulation of this plan. Their global perspective and expertise have enriched our approach. We thank the private sector stakeholders who participated in our consultations, providing valuable perspectives on needs for de-risking the agriculture sector, market dynamics and opportunities for growth in nutritious food production and distribution. Special recognition goes to the technical team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, whose tireless efforts in coordinating inputs, analysing data, and drafting this document have been exemplary. Their dedication to integrating the Agri-food systems approach throughout the strategy has been commendable. Finally, we express our gratitude to the leadership of the Government of Rwanda for their vision and continued prioritization of the agricultural sector as a driver of national development and improved food and nutrition security. 8 LIST OF ACRONYMS AMIS Agricultural Management Information System BNR National Bank of Rwanda CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CAES Customized Agriculture Extension System CAHWs Community Animal Health Workers CFSVA Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research FFS Farmer Field School GDP Gross Domestic Product ICT Information and Communication Technology IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute ISTA International Seed Testing Association JADF Joint Action Development Forum L-FFS Livestock Farmer Field School MCCs Milk Collection Centres MCPs Milk Collection Points MINALOC Ministry of Local Government MINAFFET Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation MINAGRI Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources MINECOFIN Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning MINEDUC Ministry of Education MINICT Ministry of Information Communication Technology and Innovation MINICOM Ministry of Trade and Industry MININFRA Ministry of Infrastructure MOE Ministry of Environment 9 MOH Ministry of Health NAEB National Agricultural Export Development Board NAIS National Agriculture Insurance Scheme NISR National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda NSGR National Strategic Grain Reserve NST National Strategy for Transformation OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PPP Public-Private Partnership PSTA Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation RAB Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board RDB Rwanda Development Board RFDA Rwanda Food and Drugs Authority RICA Rwanda Institute for Conservation Agriculture RICA Rwanda Inspectorate, Competition and Consumer Protection Authority RSB Rwanda Standards Board SDGs Sustainable Development Goals STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training UPOV International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Rwanda’s agriculture sector remains the bedrock of the economy and is pivotal for inclusive wealth creation, food security, and social transformation as the country strives to become a knowledge-based, high-income economy by 2050. However, the sector faces significant challenges, including the impacts of climate change and global shocks that have disrupted food prices and availability in recent years. To address these challenges and capitalize on opportunities, the Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) for 2024/25– 2028/29 aims to build resilient and sustainable Agri-food systems that support Rwanda’s continued economic and social progress. The PSTA 5 adopts a holistic Agri-food systems approach, recognizing the interconnections between agriculture and other sectors, such as health, environment, trade, and infrastructure. Guided by a robust theory of change, the strategy emphasizes connecting farmers to attractive markets as the cornerstone for unlocking the potential of the Agri-food system. By reducing post-harvest losses, strengthening value chains management and linking farmers to lucrative markets, the strategy anticipates boosting their incomes and food security, enabling investments in better inputs, technologies, and practices that enhance production, mitigate risks—including climate risks—and generate jobs across value chains. This transforms agriculture into stronger economic activity that fuels the entire Agri-food system, improving food availability, access, and stability for consumers, leading to better food security and nutrition outcomes at national level. The increased cash flow also enables farmers and other actors to access and benefit from critical enabling services such as research, extension, finance, insurance, and digital solutions, further bringing better agriculture incomes. The PSTA 5 provides a comprehensive framework to guide this collaborative effort to transform Rwanda’s Agri-food systems for a more prosperous, food secure, and resilient future. Its total estimated cost is 6,406.5 billion RWF, with 43.7% expected to come from private sector investments. The strategy’s budget is allocated across three priority areas: 1. Modernization of Agriculture and Animal Resources Production for Climate Resilient Agri-food Systems (58.6% of the budget) 2. Inclusive Markets and Post-harvest Management for Sustainable Agri-food Systems (17.5%) 3. Strengthening Agri-food Systems Enablers for Effective and Efficient delivery (23.9%) This total budget also includes contingencies to ensure flexibility in adapting to unforeseen circumstances and price fluctuations. The table below provide details on sub-components. 11 Component Total RWF bn Share of total Total Strategy costs 6,406.5 1. Modernization of Agriculture and Animal Resources Production for Climate - Resilient Agri-food Systems 3,753.51 58.6% 1.1. Modernized Crop Production and Productivity 2,430.82 37.9% 1.2. Modernized Animal Resources Production and Productivity 1,322.69 20.7% 2. Inclusive Markets and Post-harvest Management for Sustainable Agri-food Systems 1,121.17 17.5% 2.1. Boosted Agriculture Export 144.45 2.2% 2.2. Strengthened Market linkages and Post-Harvest Infrastructures 234.84 3.7% 2.3. Improved Food Security and Nutrition 741.88 11.6% 3. Strengthening Agri-food Systems Enablers for Effective and Efficient delivery 1,531.78 23.9% 3.1. Strengthened Research and Technology Transfer for Agri-food Systems Transformation 860.64 13.4% 3.2. Strengthened Agriculture De-Risking for Resilience 405.59 6.3% 3.3. Digitized Agri-food Systems 217.14 3.4% 3.4. Strengthened Agri-food Systems Planning and Coordination 48.41 0.8% The forward-looking economywide simulation analysis highlights the transformative potential of PSTA 5, particularly under the proposed full funding scenario outlined in the table above. With full funding, simulations indicate that by 2028/29, agricultural GDP growth could significantly exceed the targeted 6.1%. Additionally, exports could surpass $1.5 billion, and the sector could make substantial contributions to reducing undernourishment—a critical factor in addressing childhood stunting. The model also projects that with full funding, PSTA 5 implementation will drive a shift in employment, reducing the proportion of workers in primary agriculture while increasing off-farm employment opportunities within the Agri-food systems. This transformation will support Rwanda's achievement of food self-sufficiency by the end of the PSTA 5 period. Conversely, the "Do Nothing" and "Business-as-Usual" funding scenarios offer minimal improvements or potential declines across most key indicators. These findings underscore the necessity of substantial investment in PSTA 5 to achieve meaningful advancements in Rwanda's agricultural productivity, economic growth, and food and nutrition security. 11 1. 12 Introduction 13 1. Introduction 1.1 The role of the Agri-food systems in Rwanda The agriculture sector remains the backbone of the Rwandan economy and the key to socio economic transformation as the country continues to transition towards a knowledge-based high-income economy by 2050. Close to 69% of households are engaged in agriculture1 and an estimated 400,000 people are employed in the Agri-food systems. The sector is also crucial for social transformation, women’s economic empowerment and youth employment. Agriculture development contributed to about two thirds of the poverty reduction achieved between 2001 and 2017.2 In 2023, the sector contributed 27% of GDP3 and about 34% of exports.4 As the country transforms to an upper middle income country by 2035 and a high-income economy by 2050, agriculture will continue to play a prominent role in both economic growth and poverty reduction. Apart from the economic significance, agriculture lies at the heart of delivering food and nutrition security for the growing population to fuel national transformation in the decades to come. PSTA 5 will be implemented with an Agri-food systems approach implying that actors and interlinked activities which add value in agriculture production and related off-farm interventions play an essential role in producing and bringing food from the field to consumption. These actors also serve as the main contributors to stable and predictable access to safe and nutritious food in the country. Safe and nutritious food are essential for reducing food insecurity, malnutrition, and childhood stunting, and hence secure a healthy population today and in the future. There is a significant demand to produce more nutritious food which calls for efficient and effective use of the scarce land resources. Rwanda is one of the smallest and most densely populated countries on the African continent with over 72% of the population living in rural areas.5 The country has a population of 13.2 million of which 8.6 million are aged below 30 years,6 and it is projected to grow to 22.1 million by 2050 which will substantially increase the demand for food. Hence the imperative need to improve land productivity, protection of agriculture land from encroachment,7 and to use currently unused land for production, where suitable. Over the past few years, food security came under significant pressure as Covid-19, and other global shocks unfolded. At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, when international trade was disrupted and household incomes declined, Rwanda had to rely on its stored commodities to feed its population and the percentage of food secure households declined slightly to 79.4% in 2021 versus 81.3% in 2018 and 80.5% in 2015.8 Furthermore, in 2022 there was a major spike in the global prices of fuel and food commodities.9 In Rwanda, food insecurity was further exacerbated by droughts and severe dry spells events, which caused the inflation of domestically produced food products, reaching unprecedented levels in 2022 and 2023.10 The future is likely to witness further disruptions because of the escalating effects of climate change and other factors. Firstly, the impact of climate change in the form of droughts, floods, and 1 NISR, Fifth Population and Housing Census, 2022 2 Government of Rwanda, 2020, Vision 2050. In this period, the poverty rate reduced from 58.9% to 38.2% according to the National Household Survey, EICV 1-5 3 NISR, National Accounts 2023 4 MINAGRI Annual Report, 2022/23 5 NISR, 2023, Fifth Population and Housing Census, 2022 6 NISR, 2023, Fifth Population and Housing Census, 2022 7 PRESIDENTIAL ORDER N° 038/01 OF 20/05/2022 ESTABLISHING THE NATIONAL LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN, page 53 (72). 8 NISR, CFSVA 2021 9 IFPRI. (2022a). Russia-Ukraine war: After a year, impacts on fertilizer production, prices, and trade flows. 10 NISR, Consumer Price Index, 2023 14 soil erosion has been profound over the past decade and is projected to intensify in the future.11 Secondly, population growth and the need for increasing food supplies, despite the scarcity of land. Thirdly, potential future shocks in global markets cannot be ruled out. Consequently, intensified efforts toward Agri-food systems transformation will be critical for future national development. Considering recent events and future trends, rapid and profound transformation of the Agri-food systems is required. Firstly, to increase production efficiency and sustainability, it is imperative to integrate advanced agricultural technologies and practices. This involves strengthening the linkages between Agri-food systems actors including inputs and farm machinery suppliers, animal feed producers, farmers, processors, and markets. Secondly, investing in agriculture value chains is crucial for improving the quality, safety, economic and nutritional value of food and non-food products. This requires reducing post-harvest losses, improving storage and cold chain facilities, enhancing food processing capabilities, ensuring efficient waste management, as well as the use of relevant economy wide models. Thirdly, to empower the rural population, especially farmers, women and youth, people with disabilities, through inclusive education, training, and access to finance and user-friendly technologies, will be key to driving innovation and entrepreneurship in the Agri-food systems. As we approach 2050, the role of agriculture and the Agri-food systems in Rwanda’s socio economic context will evolve. While the sector’s contribution to GDP may decline in relative terms, its importance in ensuring food security, driving social transformation, and contributing to sustainable development will only grow. The government, together with its development partners, must therefore prioritize implementing Agri-food systems in-line with the government's development agenda, leveraging the sector’s potential to address the challenges in a sustainable and resilient way. Against this backdrop the fifth edition of the Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) has been themed: “Building resilient and sustainable Agri-food systems”. The PSTA 5 builds upon the “Planning for wealth” agenda of PSTA 4 and maintains the Ministry’s ambition of transforming agriculture towards prosperity, green, and market driven goals. However, the past few years have highlighted that sustainability and resilience are preconditions for longer term wealth creation. In a world that is becoming more volatile, agriculture transformation needs more comprehensive strategies that consideration the multifaceted nature of the sector, exogenous factors, and global events. PSTA 5 therefore emphasizes the need to consider broader Agri-food systems and climate resilience to achieve national economic development as well as food and nutrition security objectives. This involves recognition of the required substantial resources, and more importantly the need to strengthen the interlinkages between agriculture development and other areas such as health, environment, commerce, finance, ICT, education, gender equality and youth empowerment. This is comprehensively reflected in the PSTA 5 design. 1.2 Policy context The PSTA 5 is the overarching agriculture sector plan, and it will implement the second edition of the National Strategy for Transformation (NST-2) spanning the 2024-2029 period. PSTA 5 is designed to make significant progress toward the country’s overall target of achieving high-income status by 2050 and upper-middle income status by 2035. To achieve this, labour productivity in agriculture will need to increase manifold from its current levels, and agriculture production will employ fewer people than today. The transition is to be gradual and with particular attention paid to youth and gender specific impacts.12 Going into 2050, Rwanda envisions agriculture to be “totally transformed with professional farmers and commercialized value chains.13 Specifically, the Vision’s third Pillar, “Agriculture for Wealth Creation” outlines four strategic targets: Firstly, a transition to a modern market oriented and climate resilient agriculture; secondly, a scaled-up use of modern inputs and technologies to maximize 11 FAO. 2023. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023. Page 32, 244 12 GoR, 2020, Vision 2050 13 GoR, 2020, Vision 2050 15 productivity; thirdly, increased access to agriculture finance and risk sharing facilities; and, finally, integration with global value chains of higher value products. Vision 2050 also highlights some key considerations for success. For example, consistency in prioritization, increasing the role of the private sector, deepening regional integration, and adopting an unconventional approach to go beyond the “business-as-usual” development. The strategy also considers key national priorities reflected in Rwanda’s National Determined Contributions 2020, Revised Green Growth Climate Resilience Strategy, the National Land Use Master Plan 2020-50, the 2-Years Multisectoral Plan for to Accelerate Stunting Reduction, the National Disaster Risk Management Policy, the National Strategy for Sustainable Graduation, and others. Moreover, the PSTA 5 integrates high-level components from several agricultural sub-sector strategies and studies developed over the past years. These strategies include, the Rwanda Irrigation Strategic Plan, National Agriculture Financial Services Strategy, Post-Harvest Management Strategy, Livestock Development Strategy, National Agriculture Digitization Strategy, National Agriculture infrastructure Management Strategy, National Agriculture insurance Scheme, Leveraging Private Sector Strategy, Management of Agri PPDs and Value Chain Platforms Mechanisms in Rwanda, National Aquaculture Strategy for Rwanda, Rwanda Beekeeping Development Strategy, Nutrition Sensitive Agriculture Mainstreaming Guidelines, Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy, and others. In addition, existing laws, and regulations relevant for agriculture, such as the Land Law, Seed Law, PPP Law, the Investment Code, and others were considered. At the international policy nexus, Rwanda’s agricultural strategies are compliant with the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 14 and SDGs, EAC Agriculture and Rural Development Strategy, and the AfCFTA. The pan-African CAADP initiative offers a unified vision for rejuvenating agricultural growth, fortifying food security, and galvanizing rural development. Additionally, the strategy underscores its commitment to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 2, which emphasises ending hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture. This calls for a transformation in Agri-food systems in ways that ensure the delivery of safe, low cost, nutritious foods and consumption of healthier diets. By harmonising the PSTA 5 with the SDGs, the Government of Rwanda reinforces its pledge to not just uplift its own populace but also contribute constructively to other global goals including SDG 5 on Gender equality, SDG 8 on decent work and economic growth, SDG 12 on responsible production and consumption, SDG 13 on climate action and SDG 14 on life below water. Formulation process of PSTA 5 The PSTA 5 formulation process was designed in a consultative manner using evidence-based inputs. Implementation of PSTA 5 will require a multitude of stakeholders, and therefore, significant efforts have been made to make the strategy formulation inclusive and participatory while responding to National, Regional, Continental and International policy directives. The process is aligned to the guidelines for Cabinet papers, which requires a consultative process at local and central levels. To ensure alignment and coherence, the strategy was formulated in alignment with Rwanda’s Vision 2050, National Agriculture Policy and other preceding documents. It also took into consideration international commitments, such as the CAADP agreements and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The document considered data from relevant existing sources including the PSTA 4 mid-term review (MTR), prior strategic documents, research papers, Laws and Regulations, and reports. Furthermore, sub-sector strategies at various stages of development and approval were reviewed and considered in the PSTA 5. Additionally, publicly available datasets on production, consumption, trade, labour, food balance sheet, food security etc. were collected from the National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR) and analysed. This allowed for a holistic understanding of the historical and current context, challenges, and the progress made in the Agri-food systems. 14 Fourth CAADP Biennial Review, 2023 http://chrome-extension/efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https:/au.int/sites/default/files/documents/43556-doc-EN 4th CAADP Biennial Review Report-COMPLETE.pdf 16 Primary data was collected primarily through meetings and consultations and organized consultations across all provinces with representatives from all districts were undertaken. Focus group discussions with farmers and value chain actors were held. To be inclusive, special focus group discussions with women and youth were organized separately. Moreover, civil society, the private sector, and development partners have been consulted through the Agriculture Sector Working Group. A three-days knowledge seminar was held in November 2023 with national and international experts informing the strategy on national and global challenges to the Agri-food systems. Furthermore, each draft of the PSTA 5 was shared with agriculture stakeholders for enrichment and comments. The present document took into consideration inputs from all agriculture sector members. Consultations with government institutions, relevant for the Agri-food systems transformation, have been held to allow for joint planning and working as well as closer interaction during implementation. The consultations included institutions from key sectors relevant to the Rwanda’s Agri-food systems like health, environment, trade and industry, infrastructure, and others. Additionally, a year-long training programme on food systems is being conducted for civil servants across relevant institutions to underpin the envisioned transition to a more holistic implementation approach. Outline of the document The PSTA 5 document aspires to paint a comprehensive picture of the Agri-food systems and the strategic priorities to improve performance both from the macro-perspective and for specific topics. The document has the following structure. The Sector Overview and Performance reports on the situation in the Agri-food systems at a macro level over the past 5 years and considers challenges and opportunities for future success. This informs the overall goals and the Theory of Change. The subsequent strategic framework is divided into three priority areas. Priority Area 1 considers the supply side of the Agri-food systems and is aimed at increasing agricultural production through more climate resilient practices and technologies. Priority Area 2 considers the markets side, i.e. the agriculture value chain and consumption aspects for sustainable food systems. Finally, Priority Area 3 considers the systemic enablers which strengthen the Agri-food systems overall. Each Priority Area contains outcomes and outputs defining the planned activities under PSTA 5. Each output is informed by a situational assessment related to the specific topic and outlines priorities in the area. 17 2. Sector overview and performance The PSTA 5 emphasises a food systems approach. Hence the following sub-section provides an overview of the Agri-food systems and the key actors, followed by a review of sector performance during PSTA 4 period with respect to the contribution toward economic development and improving food security and nutrition outcomes. 2.1 Agri-food systems overview With PSTA 5, Rwanda has committed to a food systems approach, recognizing its fundamental role for the economy and for securing sustainable availability, access to nutritious and healthy diets for all while empowering Agri-food systems actors. The Agri-food systems encompass the entire range of actors and their interlinked value-adding activities. Agriculture is closely linked to sectors like environment, health, infrastructure, trade, finance, technology, local administration and education, all vital for food security and transformation. Environmental ties include climate change, land use, and ecosystems. Key health-related actions involve water, sanitation, hygiene (WASH), food safety, and school feeding programs. Skills development and capacity building are essential for sustainability. Infrastructure, including roads, electricity and markets that connect agriculture to services and trade. Trade, in turn, drives the export and import of agricultural goods by integrating local and global markets. Farming plays a significant role in Agri-food systems giving employment to 3.5 million farmers. Out of these, 1.78 million derive their main livelihood from subsistence farming, and 1.72 million are market oriented15. Men have a significantly higher propensity to be engaged in market-oriented agriculture than women (55% vs 44%). Additionally, the wider food-systems, beyond primary production, employs about 400,000 people and contributes approximately USD 1.1bn to GDP.16 Workers in trade, transport, agro-processing, food services, input supply, food preparation etc, connect farmers to markets and are essential for agriculture transformation through backward and forward linkages. The majority of farmers do mixed farming systems combining crops and animal production.17 Beans are the most common crop farmed by 79.9% of the households followed by other staples: maize, cassava, and sweet potato.18 The most common animal is cows, which is reared by 925,808 households, followed by goats, pigs, and chicken.19 With small and decreasing landholdings, households are gradually shifting this composition towards smaller animals. Fruits are produced by 65% of the households, whereas only 15% of households grow vegetables20 (infographic 5). Because farming households are heterogenous, farm typologies based on different characteristics, needs, and opportunities should be considered. About 58% of farmers are women, and 95% of farmers reside in rural areas21. Youth (age 16-30) constitute 32% of farmers and two thirds of farmers are younger than 46 years of age. Whereas, farmers have less formal education than the rest of the population, youth-farmers have significantly more education than non-youth farmers (infographic 4). These differences must be given consideration in programmes aimed towards strengthening household resilience. For example, small-holder subsistence farmers are more vulnerable to climate change impacts than commercial farmers who can afford agro-insurance and protective measures. 15 Labor Force Survey Annual Report, 2023. 16 IFPRI, 2022, Measuring Changes in Rwanda’s Agri-food systems 17 NISR, 2023, Fifth Population and Housing Census 2022 18 NISR, 2023, Fifth Population and Housing Census 2022 19 NISR, 2023, Fifth Population and Housing Census 2022 20 NISR, 2023, Fifth Population and Housing Census 2022 21 NISR, Labour Force Survey, 2023 18 s 19 20 21 2.2 Agri-food sector performance in the PSTA 4 period 2.2.1 Contributions to incomes and the economy Agriculture gross value added increased by 3.1% per year on average in the 2018-2023 period compared to overall GDP growth of 6.5%. Whereas food crops are still the largest sub-sector at 62% of total agriculture production, animal production saw remarkable growth of 9% per year since 2018. Food crops saw 2.5% growth since 2018, which is lower than the preceding decade – annual growth in food crops between 2008-2018 was 5.5%. After the implementation of the Crops Intensification Programme, agriculture yields improved substantially, but the effect has diminished since approximately 201322. Export crops have seen a slight decline during the PSTA 4 period, mainly due to the pandemic, international prices of coffee and tea, and stagnating domestic production volumes and yields of the major crops. Agriculture proved more resilient than the rest of the economy during the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, the agriculture gross value-added increased by 1% compared to an overall decline in national GDP of 3.4%, and the sector absorbed about 450,000 additional workers during that year23. Agriculture remains the main source of employment and livelihoods, but productivity is low. As seen in the previous section, agriculture primary production employs over 3.4 million people24 and creates livelihoods for 69% of households25. However, agriculture gross value added is RWF 0.72 million/worker/ year compared to 3.19 million in industry and 3.36 million in services26. With a growing labour force, it is critical to increase agriculture sector productivity as well as creating off-farm opportunities in the wider Agri-food systems where productivity and wages are higher27. The PSTA 4 period saw improved uptake of good agricultural practices between 2018 and 2023. The share of farmers using inorganic fertilizers increased from 22% to 56% with applications increasing from 32 kg/ha to 70 kg/ha. Meanwhile, organic fertilizer uptake increased from 44% to 86%28. The use of improved seeds increased from 9% to 29% and the use of pesticides from 17% to 33%.29 From 2022, the global rise in input costs posed significant challenges, limiting farmers' access to fertilizers30. In response, the government adjusted fertilizer prices and subsidies, taking on a larger share of the price increases to shield farmers from market volatility31. Integrated soil land husbandry and water management measures were applied and strengthened during PSTA 4 to mitigate the climate change impact. By 2023, 92% of farmers were using anti erosion control measures versus 68% in 2018 with the area under radical terraces increasing from 110,905 ha to 138,579 ha. The area developed for irrigation increased to 71,585 ha. by 2023 with the percentage of farmers using irrigation doubling from 5% to 10%32. 22 MINAGRI, National Agriculture Policy 2018 23 NISR, Labour Force Survey 24 NISR, Labour Force Survey 25 NISR, Fifth Population and Housing Census, 2022 26 Calculated as Real GDP (2017) prices per worker according to the Labour Force Survey. 27 NISR, Labour Force Survey 28 NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 29 NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 30 IFPRI source: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-ukraine-war-after-year-impacts-fertilizer-production-prices-and-trade-flows 31 IFPRI, 2022: “Expected impacts of increases in international prices of fertilizer in Rwanda” Source: chrome extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/135073/filename/135287 .pdf. 32 NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Survey about:blank about:blank about:blank 22 23 Food crop production increased between 2018 and 2023 due to increased harvested area of about 10%,33 but overall yields did not increase as anticipated under PSTA 4. There were large variations between crops (see infographic 6B). Some crops recorded increased yields and production, including cassava, wheat, paddy rice, sweet potato, and maize amongst others. On the other hand, some important crops saw declining yields, mainly due to crop disease and climate change. For instance, bean yields declined by 18% mainly due to droughts, disease and lower use of quality seeds. Furthermore, cooking banana yields declined by 16% in the period due to widespread Banana Xanthomonas Wilt disease. Animal resources production volumes increased significantly during PSTA 4 implementation. This growth is attributed to different programs supporting the development of the animal resources sub sector.34 The milk production increased from 776,284 MT to 1,061,301 MT (37%) from 2016-2017 to 2022-2023. Meat production rose from 96,457 MT to 197,778 MT (105 %) driven mainly by beef and poultry which constitute 35% and 27% of total meat production respectively.35 The growth in meat production is driven mainly by beef and poultry which constitute 35% and 27% of total meat production, respectively.36 Egg production increased from 7,475 MT to 17,344 MT (132%). Fish production is reported to have increased from 31,465 MT in 2018-2019 to 46,495 MT in 2022-2023, whereas honey production rose from 5,200 MT to 7,250 MT.37 Cross-cutting challenges in animal resources production are related to cost of feed, animal genetics, and disease management. Goat meat production is hampered by Rift Valley Fever and PPR, pork production by African Swine Flu and Swine Erysipelas. Egg production and poultry are particularly affected by the cost of quality feeds. Projects to improve access to protein sources in animal feeds are ongoing, especially the production of new soya varieties38 and proteins from insects.39 Over 80% of fish production is currently capture fisheries, but aquaculture is expected to grow substantially in the coming years.40 Agriculture exports increased from USD 462.4 million in 2018/19 to USD 857 million by 2022/2023.41 Rwanda has a revealed comparative advantage in high-value agriculture products due to its small size and unique growing conditions. The traditional export crops are coffee and tea which still take up over a quarter of total agricultural exports. Additionally, there are substantial informal cross border exports of animal products, live animals, and cereals to neighbouring countries. Horticulture exports such as fruits, vegetables, flowers, and nuts grew by 136% increasing their export share from 4% to 7%. These developments indicate that an inflexion point has been reached with several logistics and transport related factors addressed in tandem with improved business linkages to large buyers in high value markets. This trend is expected to continue, fuelled by the establishment of the Gabiro Business Hub in the Eastern Province and other production sites to meet the demand for consistent and large quantity supply in high-value export markets. Other agriculture commodities (e.g. grains and re-exports) constitute more than half of agriculture exports and grew by 38.5%. Main challenges in the export area are related to climate change, price fluctuations, commodity certification, limited branding and value addition, as well as the quality and quantity of exportable agriculture products. 33 NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 2018-2023 34 MINAGRI, 2024, Livestock Development Strategy 35 RAB statistics 36 RAB statistics 37 MINAGRI, 2022-2023 Annual report 38 RAB et la Fondation Avril: “Plan Soja Rwanda 2030" 39 MINAGRI, 2024, Livestock Development Strategy 40 MINAGRI 2023, Aquaculture Development Strategy 41 MINAGRI, 2023, annual Report 2022/23 24 25 2.2.2 Performance towards Food Security and Nutrition Over the past few years, the country faced increased exposure to food related risk factors, impacting food availability, access, and market stability. The year-on-year food inflation peaked at 65% in November 2022, due to a combination of reduced global supply of grains and fertilizers, food export restrictions from several countries in the region, and climate change impact affecting domestic production 42 . Prior to that, the Covid-19 pandemic had severely affected household incomes43. Rwanda relies on imports for 20% of the dietary energy needs rendering the country vulnerable to international food crises 44 .Food production has increased from 2,176 kcal/person/day in 2018 to estimated 2,233 kcal/capita/day in 202345. In theory, and given the given the age composition of the population, this is sufficient to cover the country’s food needs, but food loss, animal feeds, exports, etc. leave the country with a self-sufficiency ratio of 79.4%46, i.e. a deficit. Main contributors to dietary energy production are staple crops. The most important crops for dietary energy production are maize (16%), beans (15.6%), banana (14.9%), cassava (13.4%), and sweet potato (14.6%). The contribution to dietary energy from animal products has increased slightly from under 10% in 2018 to over 11% in the period. Milk is the most important animal product contributing 5% of dietary energy production. National protein production increased by 10% between 2018 and 2023, but according to estimates the production is 19% short of the domestic need 47 . Production stood at 68 grams/person/per day, whereas the estimated need is 84 gr/person/day, considering the age distribution of the population. The contribution of animal protein increased from 24.3% to 30.9% between 2018-2023. Beans remain the predominant contributor to protein production at 30.4%. 42 Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, James Thurlow, David Spielman, Jenny Smart, Gilberthe Benimana, Serge Mugabo, and Gracie Rosenbach, 2022, Impacts of the Ukraine and Global Crises on Poverty and Food Security, IFPRI Country Brief 5 43 NISR, CFSVA 2021 44 According to NISR, Food Balance Sheet 2022 the self-sufficiency ratio is 79.4% 45 NISR, 2023, Rwanda Food Balance Sheets Dashboard 46 NISR, Food Balance Sheet, 2022 47 Authors calculation from: NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Surveys; MINAGRI Annual Report Animal Resources 2022/23; Kcal/kg estimates from FAO and NISR, 2023, 5th Population and Household Census 2022 and age-specific dietary needs. The need is estimated under the assumption that an active person needs 15% of their energy intake from protein sources. 26 27 28 Food insecurity stood at 20.6% of households in 2021, which is similar to 2015 and 2018, and is correlated with household wealth, education, urbanisation, profession, and gender 48 . Only 2% of households in the wealthiest quintile, are affected by food insecurity; if the head has completed secondary education, only 7% are food insecure; food insecurity in urban areas is 7% vs 23.3% in rural areas; 40% of agriculture day-workers are food insecure; 27% of women headed households are food insecure vs 18% for male headed households (see infographic 8 below). Although the rates of stunting persist at elevated levels, the recent advancements indicate that different initiatives are yielding positive results. By 2021, stunting decreased to 32.4% versus 34.9% in 2018 and 43% in 201249. Most impressively, stunting rates in severely food insecure households declined from 62% to 40%50. This may be attributed to accelerated Government efforts over the past 5 years with initiatives such as the Shisha Kibondo programme, community-based nutrition programs where monthly growth monitoring and malnutrition screening is conducted, and therapeutic feeding programmes, involving 25% and 11% of children in the 6-23 months age group, respectively. Given the results, there are continued indications for sustained efforts to ensure equitable access to proper nutrition for all children. However, considerable efforts on several fronts are still required to reduce stunting further. As we delineate the socio-economic factors influencing nutritional outcomes, it becomes evident that stunting rates are considerably higher among the poorest households (43%) underscoring a direct correlation between economic stability and nutritional well-being. In urban areas, stunting is 15.9% versus 34.7% in rural areas51. If the mother has no education, 41% percent of kids are stunted, whereas it is 16.1% if the mother completed high school and 6.0% if she completed university52. Global evidence from the past several decades suggests that stunting is a result of diverse spectrum of factors such as overall dietary intake, dietary intake from non-staples, water and sanitation, and gender equality53. This point towards implementing comprehensive measures from gender-sensitive interventions, fostering community engagement, rural water access, strengthening healthcare services, aligning policies, and maintaining rigorous data monitoring. The proportion of underweight female children decreased from 10.2% in 2010/2011 to 6.3% in 2019/2020, whereas for male children, it decreased from 12.7% to 9% during the same period54. The decline in underweight prevalence signifies positive strides in addressing overall malnutrition. However, like stunting, a gender-specific disparity remains, indicating a need for targeted interventions for male children. 48 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 49 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 50 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 51 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 52 NISR,2022, CFSVA 2021 53 Smith, L.C. and Haddad, L. (2015) Reducing Child Undernutrition: Past Drivers and Priorities for the Post-MDG Era. World Development, 68, 180-204. 54 NISR, 2020, Demographic Health Survey 29 30 Key Challenges and Opportunities 31 3. Key Challenges and Opportunities 3.1. Production level Land scarcity: Rwanda grapples with an inherent land scarcity issue, a consequence of its geographical constraints and burgeoning population. Average land holdings are now 0.45 ha, and the median is 0.2 ha. per agricultural household55. Increasing productivity and the value generated from the land is of utmost strategic importance and will be more critical in the future as the population grows. Land conservation and restoration will be essential for achieving the productivity objectives. There are essentially 4 ways to increase productivity: Improving yields and animal productivity in the current production system. This could roughly double crop production as current yields are at about 40-50% of their yield potential56. Animal production can increase manifold with improved practices. This requires intensified investment in improved agronomic practices, irrigation, equipment, inputs, infrastructure, animal feeds and breeds, disease and pest control mechanisms, and research, amongst others. These elements are covered in detail throughout the strategy. Protecting agricultural land and developing marginal land for improved production. Integrated landscape management and mainly using climate smart, regenerative and conservation agriculture, which protects land health and maintains land productivity and the agro-ecology. Furthermore, to protect current agricultural land against encroachment from settlements. Finally, developing land which is currently unused for crops and animal production. Improved food quality, food safety, value addition, and reduced post-harvest losses. Findings from the latest study 2023 on post-harvest losses, showed that post-harvest losses in the maize value chain is 13.8%, 12.4% for rice, and 11.3% for beans. This represents an important quantity of cereals and pulses lost annually and the need for improving handling capacity. Today the country records a total of 1,512 drying infrastructures including 927 drying shelters, and 585 drying grounds, and a total of 525 storages with respective capacities of 30,961MT: 14,714MT and 297,525MT. The percentage of losses attributed to Aflatoxin is recorded at 2.2% in Maize57. Post-harvest management and handling is primarily traditional and lacks advanced technologies and practices, which causes food loss, reduced access to quality inputs for processors and raises food safety concerns. Preventative food related disease is among the leading causes of morbidity in Rwanda, and the third leading cause of child mortality58. Prioritising high-value products. Shifting to high-value products can increase farmer incomes manifold with the current production techniques. For example, if a farmer shifts from beans to cooking banana, the land productivity could increase by almost 10 times using the existing farming practices59. Shifting to high value export crops or animal products can increase the value added by even more60,61 . The impact of climate change is significant, and it is expected to accelerate in the future. Mean temperatures have risen between 1.4°C and 2.56°C from 1971 to 2016 and increased 55 NISR, 2020, Agriculture Household Survey 56 PSTA 5 Projection Model 57 Assessment of post-harvest losses for beans, cassava, irish potato, maize, rice, and tomato crops Final Report- 2023 (RAB) 58 Martin Ntawubizi, Anselme Shyaka, Christine Mukantwali, Eugène Niyonzima, Jerome Ndahimana, and Jean Baptiste Ndahetuye, 2020, Situational analysis of the food safety control system in Rwanda: Animal-source foods, fruits, and vegetables, UR/RAB/RSB 59 NISR, 2024, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 60 NAEB, 2024, Profitability Analysis on Horticulture 61 IFPRI, 2024, Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers 1 2 3 4 32 occurrences of floods and droughts62(Infographic 10 on page 36). The loss from climate related disasters is estimated between 2%-10% of agri-GDP per year. 63 Meanwhile, the continuous loss from soil erosion has been estimated at RWF 810 billion per year.64 This trend is projected to continue with mean temperatures to increase by between 0.1-0.3 degrees by 2050 and a 5-10% increase in rainfall variability.65 The implications are that droughts, floods, landslides, and soil erosion are likely to be more frequent. The future changes may cause yield potentials of essential staple crops to decrease by over 10% by 2050.66 Rwanda’s National Determined Contribution has set goals for climate mitigation and adaptation, especially for conservation agriculture, sustainable intensification, soil and water management, agroforestry, and climate resilient breeds and seeds. The PSTA 5 will incorporate climate smart agriculture as per the NDC. Low yields and animal production due to sub-optimal agriculture and animal husbandry practices and climate impacts. Whilst the uptake of inputs, irrigation, and land husbandry have improved during the PSTA 4 period, yields remain low. About 65% of farmers had received extension services in 202067, but stakeholder consultations have found that the current extension system, has limited uptake, is often of low quality, and is too narrow in its focus68. Additionally, there is limited availability of impactful technologies such as climate resilient seeds, post-harvest facilities, and only 1% of farmers report to use mechanization 69 etc. Hence, there is a need to develop demand-driven technologies, and secure uptake and use through a more adapted extension system. Access to finance and insurance for farm operations. The agriculture sector receives 6%70 of commercial credit against the target of 10.4%,71 which is well below its 27% contribution to GDP.72 Across all consultations,73 the access and volume of finance was reported insufficient by farmers. Only 17% of farmers receive formal finance for their operations, whereas another 60% get finance from informal lenders or family. Accessing finance is critical for farmers to afford improved technologies and accessing services to improve productivity. Insurance can enhance access to credit through risk mitigation while increasing resilience. The insurance adoption amongst farmers increased from 4% in 2016 to 11% in 2020,74 indicating that there is a need for increasing coverage. Commercialization is a key driver for agriculture transformation and food security. About 12% of commercial farmers are food insecure versus 32% for subsistence farmers75. Furthermore, uptake of good agriculture practices is substantially higher among commercial farmers compared to subsistence farmers. Previous research has focused on landholdings to drive agriculture transformation76. More recent empirical studies find that the level of commercialization and crop choice is relatively more important for household income than landholdings, reinforced by enhanced access to value chain finance and formal credit 77 Furthermore, analysis of Seasonal Agriculture Survey data finds that increasing the share of production sold by 1%-point is associated with 0.19% higher average yield and 62 Ministry of Environment, 2020, Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. 63 Watkiss, Paul, Blanche Butera, Jonathan Bower, 2023, The Macroeconomic Case for Climate Adaptation in Rwanda, IGC. 64 IUCN, 2022, The State of Soil Erosion Control in Rwanda. 65 Ministry of Environment, 2020, Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. 66 Austin, Kemen, R. Beach, D. Lapidus, M. Salem, N. Taylor, M. Knudsen, and N. Ujeneza. (2020). “Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Productivity of Eleven Staple Crops in Rwanda”, Sustainability. 67 NISR, Agriculture Household Survey 2020. 68 Consultation on CAES, 27th July 2023. 69 NISR, Agriculture Household Survey, 2020. 70 BNR, Monetary Statements. 71 Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (2018-2024) Planning for Wealth. 72 NISR, National Accounts. 73 The situation assessment report of PSTA 5 consultations. 74 Agriculture Finance Thematic Report FinScope Rwanda 2020 – Access to Finance Rwanda (afr.rw) 75 NISR, CFSVA. 76 See PSTA 4. 77 IFPRI, 2024, Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers, (forthcoming). https://afr.rw/downloads/agriculture-finance-thematic-report-finscope-rwanda-2020/ 33 1.25% higher income per hectare78. The underlying logic is that commercialization generates cash flow and incomes that allow farming households to invest in better practices and household expenditures. Finally, commercialization enhances job creation. Whereas 240,000 commercial farmers are independent, 1.6 million people are workers on commercial farms 79, and bringing production through the commercial challenges create additional jobs in trade, transport, processing and other parts of the Agri-food systems This underscores the need to focus on commercializing farmers to bring about rural transformation. 3.2. Post-harvest and consumer level Favourable agronomic conditions for high-value products. Rwanda’s rainfall pattern allows for 3 harvests annually. It possesses unique climatic and topographical characteristics, making it inherently favourable for the propagation of economically significant crops, notably tea, coffee, and diverse horticulture crops such as chilli, French beans, avocado, passion fruits, and others. The commodities derived from these specific chains are of high quality, consistently commanding a premium price in global markets. Furthermore, several animal resource value chains have seen significant progress over the past decade indicating favourable conditions, especially for products less dependent on feeds such as eggs, milk, aquaculture, and honey. The PSTA 5 will build on these strategic advantages to drive agriculture transformation. Weak market linkages due to lack of hard and soft market infrastructure. Market linkages require hard infrastructure such as feeder roads, market facilities, post-harvest infrastructure, and cold-chain facilities. According to the World Bank Report, despite the large investments in Rwanda (8.4% of GDP in 2019-2024) there is still a need to increase infrastructure investment to reach the government’s goal of 6.5% annual real GDP Growth80. However, soft infrastructure is equally important and particular focus will be put on the organisation of all value chain actors for improvement of and ownership in the management of hard infrastructure and the trade relations between actors in the system. Although the country has roughly 5,000 agricultural cooperatives with 1.1 million listed members, only 13% of farmers report being active members of a cooperative or a farmer association81. Whilst some farmer organizations are well functioning, consultations across all provinces have identified a need for improving the governance and management of many farmer organizations to increase farmer participation and strengthen market linkages. Meanwhile, alternative models such as Out-grower Service Companies have emerged and achieved substantial increases and production in their operations, especially in the tea sector.82 To strengthen market linkages, PSTA 5 will pilot these and other new models for farmer organisations. Access to safe high-quality food and reducing food loss. Rwanda's domestic food system is predominantly informal, with a large proportion of food being produced for auto-consumption or traded domestically. This informality extends to post-harvest handling, which is primarily traditional and lacking in advanced technologies and practices. Poor handling practices causes food loss, reduced access to quality inputs for processors, and raises food safety concerns. Preventative food related disease is among the leading causes of morbidity in Rwanda, and the third leading cause of child mortality83. There is a strong need for hard and soft infrastructure for testing and standards compliance to increase food safety, value addition, and food quality. High price volatility in consumer markets. Since 2010, food price inflation has seen four peaks in which year-on-year inflation exceeded 20%,84 i.e. there has been a severe food price shock every 3-4 78 Manayubahwe, Kazana, and Mads Knudsen, 2024, Determinants of Agriculture Yields and Value Added, Technical Note for PSTA 5. 79 NISR, Labour Force Survey 2023. 80 World Bank Document Infrastructure Development: Leveraging Private Sector to close the Gap (worldbank.org). 81 NISR, Agriculture Household Survey, 2020. 82 Gatsby Foundation, 2020, IN IT FOR THE LONG HAUL: Transformative impact from The Wood Foundation Africa and Gatsby Africa’s investments in the Rwandan tea sector. 83 Martin Ntawubizi, Anselme Shyaka, Christine Mukantwali, Eugène Niyonzima, Jerome Ndahimana, and Jean Baptiste Ndahetuye, 2020, Situational analysis of the food safety control system in Rwanda: Animal-source foods, fruits, and vegetables, UR/RAB/RSB 84 NISR, Consumer Price Index https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/992631626808031540/pdf/Rwanda-Economic-Update-The-Role-of-the-Private-Sector-in-Closing-the-Infrastructure-Gap.pdf https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/rwanda/publication/infrastructure-development-leveraging-private-sector-to-close-the-gap 34 years on average. During this period, inflation peaks are typically correlated with adverse weather events,85 which are anticipated to intensify with climate change. Disaster risk is the sum of vulnerability with the hazard and exposure and that disaster risk management. With the increasing exposure to hazards, it is imperative to strengthen resilience both at the national and local levels by increasing food production and food storage for the growing population as well as increasing resilience at the household level. This requires a cross-sectoral effort contribution from Agri-food systems actors to reduce risk and increase absorptive and adaptive capacities across the system. Addressing malnutrition. The critical role of dietary diversity and nutritious foods dietary intake from non-staples is equally important for reducing stunting as the overall dietary energy intake.86 However, the dietary diversity scores have stabilized around 5.5 different food items per week on average as evidenced in the past few CFSVA surveys.87 Protein intake and several micro-nutrients are generally missing from the reported dietary diversity scores. The factors for low uptake are both economic, behavioural, and systemic. Hence, there is a need to promote public programmes to increase access to nutritious food. This can be achieved through processing of wholegrain, fortification, and bio-fortification. Behavioural change and sensitization on intake of widely available nutritious foods such as orange fleshed sweet potatoes, high-iron beans, small dried fish (rich in vitamin B12), dark green leafy vegetables (abundant in vitamin A) as well as carrots, mango, and milk.88 Additionally, to increase availability and access through increased production of nutritious food, and increasing income to be able to purchase a variety of foods. Systemic level Transformational potential in leveraging youth. Youth farmers have more formal education than the older generations and empirical studies find that they are more commercially oriented, have higher land productivity, and have more off-farm jobs – especially when compared to households with mature heads 89 . However, they only have access to about half the land of non-youth 90 . This points to opportunities in expanding markets for land-leasing in order to potentially increase land productivity. Furthermore, youth have significant potential for entrepreneurship, especially in the wider Agri-food systems and are typically early and efficient adapters of new technology. Transformational potential in women increasing women participation in commercial value chains and off-farm employment. About 58% of farmers are women, but they are less likely to be involved in market-oriented agriculture and have fewer off-farm jobs than men91. About 51% of rural working age women (1.5 million) are outside the labour force compared to 36% of rural men92. About 21% of rural women have off-farm jobs. Consequently, there is significant untapped potential from increasing women’s labour market participation both from a national perspective as well as for the households. Transformational potential adopting innovation and digitalization. Several global studies carried out in different countries at various stages of development have found that the average return to investment in agriculture innovation is approximately 40-60%93 . In Rwanda, crop animal yields are far from the global averages. Hence, there is still a significant potential for research in all stages of the value chain. Furthermore, the past decade has seen the emergence of several digital technologies such as remote sensing, digital payment systems, digital extension services and many others. In Rwanda, 85% 85 World Bank, Note to Development Partners for NST2 86 Smith, L, and L Haddad, 2015, Reducing Child Undernutrition: Past Drivers and Priorities for the Post-MDG Era, World Development 68 (441). 87 NISR, CFSVA 2021 88 Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). Affordability of nutritious foods for complementary feeding in Rwanda. Geneva: GAIN, 2021 89 IFPRI, 2024, Rwandan farmer typologies, (forthcoming) 90 Agriculture Household Survey, 2020 91 NISR, Labour Force Survey 2023 92 NISR, Labour Force Survey 2023 93 MINAGRI, PSTA 4 35 of farmers have access to mobile phones and currently 55% use mobile payments. These are opportunities to leverage both for the public and private sectors. Potential for increased private sector and civil society participation. The PSTA 4 mid-term review found limited evidence for synergies with private sector and civil society actors as well as limitations in coordination between different institutions. The food system entails a multitude of sectors and actors, and successful outcomes are contingent on leveraging capacities of all actors. It is therefore crucial to address this gap in the PSTA 5 strategic period, both in terms of research and planning partnerships as well as public-private partnerships. Transformation in building capacities. The PSTA 4 mid-term review found that capacity building and institutional changes envisaged were not sufficiently implemented. This will need to be addressed during PSTA 5 to deliver on the targets. Using an Agri-food systems approach and increased delivery through partnerships there will be an increased need for coordination, knowledge management through the implementation of flagship programs like the Customised Agriculture Extension System (CAES), skills and capacity development, and resource mobilization. 36 37 38 39 40 Priority and Theory of Change 41 4. Priorities and the Theory of Change 4.1. Vision, Mission, and Objective PSTA 5 serves as a framework for implementing the National Strategy for Transformation (NST 2), ensuring direct alignment with the National Agriculture Policy and Rwanda's Vision 2025. The strategy is guided by the following vision and mission: VISION MISSION A nation that achieves food security, nutritional health, and sustainable agricultural growth driven by a productive, resilient, and market-led agricultural sector. To ensure food and nutrition security in Rwanda by leveraging modern production and agribusiness, while professionalizing farmers to enhance production, post-harvest management, commercialisation, and competitiveness. 4.2. Impact goals The impact goals are by the Vision 2050 and NST 2 calling for a bold agenda for PSTA 5 aimed at transforming not only the agriculture sector but underpinning transformation of all Agri-food systems to achieve sustainable food and nutrition security and increasing resilience. Increased economic growth and opportunities. Increasing rural household incomes will be the bedrock of broad-based transformation in the long-term underpinning progress on social and economic indicators. Vision 2050 sets a bold target for labour productivity which is a function of growth in agriculture GDP and creating non-farm opportunities to reduce the dependency of agriculture for incomes. This requires a substantial increase in land productivity paired with labour saving technologies. Moreover, it requires a shift to higher value products through increased exports and value addition. Increasing incomes for agricultural households will underpin the economic transformation in the decades to come. Improved food security and nutrition. Agriculture is the cornerstone of both economic stability and societal health and well-being. PSTA 5 targets a substantial elevation in the percentage of our populace who are food secure. Concurrently, in a bid to nurture a healthier future generation, the plan is committed to reducing stunting rates. National food sovereignty is another aspect of food security to be addressed by the strategy. The strategy will target increased national production and food reserve capacity. Improved resilience. Over the past few years, the world has seen global shocks such as the COVID 19 and supply shocks to essential agricultural resources, coupled with the relentless challenges of climate change. Like other countries, Rwanda was severely impacted by these shocks, and it is very likely that there will be more shocks in the future. It is therefore paramount to build resilient Agri-food systems against both social, economic, and natural shocks. Measures of using climate-smart agriculture techniques, de-risking the agriculture sector, ensuring inclusiveness in all agriculture-related activities, capacity building of farmers as well as the enhancement of the current strategic grain reserve will be taken. 42 Table 1: Impact Indicators Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2028/29 Inclusive economic transformation Agriculture GDP growth % GDP National Account 2.0% 6.1% Agriculture exports revenue (USD Million) USD Million NAEB Annual Report 875 1,540 Off-farm jobs in the Agri-food Number off-farm jobs in Agri-food system Labour force Survey and SAM 400,000 644,204 Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index Index value IFPRI 72% 100% Improved food and nutrition security Percentage food secure HH (CARI indicator) % CFSVA 79.4% (2021) 88% Stunting rate % CFSVA 32.4% (2021) 15% Dietary diversity score Score CFSVA 5.5 8.0 Food self-sufficiency ratio % Food Balance Sheet 79.6% (2022) 100% 4.3. Cross-cutting priority areas The strategy has several cross-cutting priorities. These are priorities which due to their importance and complex nature need to be considered across all strategic components both in planning and implementation. In PSTA 5 the following are considered as cross-cutting areas: 1. Farmer inclusion. Farmers are key stakeholders in the Agri-food systems and their participation is crucial for successful implementation of the strategy. It is critical to involve farmers in the decision making process and ensure that interventions are closely aligned with their needs, experiences, and insights. This will happen for example through introducing Village Land Use Action Plans. Also, inclusion of categories of farmers in the Agri-food systems by linking them to markets and services 43 is also a cross-cutting priority, as this will underpin the transformation of the sector and the economy in the decades to come. 2. Environment and climate change. The accelerating impact of climate change is affecting the entire food system. Climate adaptation is therefore to be considered across all strategic interventions. Conservation agriculture is one of the key levers in adaptation, and as such, its principles have been tested and currently being expanded across various initiatives and will loom prominently in the upcoming strategic period. In 2022, the adoption of Conservation Agriculture in Rwanda commenced, leading to the establishment of 5,416 demonstration plots by 202394. It is projected that full-scale adoption at the village level is anticipated95. 3. Improved nutrition. Nutrition is critical for building human capital and it is therefore important for the long-term potential of the economy. Yet, the stunting rate remains high at 32.4%. Addressing this will require a multi-sector approach and concerted efforts across accessibility, availability, and uptake of healthy diets, as well as partnership between institutions championing this cause. Nutrition is a crosscutting priority in PSTA 5, but there are also nutrition targeted interventions in Priority Area II. 4. Youth employment. Youth is a valuable resource, carrying potential for innovation and dynamism. Harnessing this potential requires intentional effort toward creating off-farm opportunities and capacity building in the Agri-food systems. By diversifying opportunities within the sector, youth can find employment in various fields that match their skills, energy, and interests. The creation of meaningful job opportunities, aligned with the youth’s interests and aptitudes, is crucial. Such roles must not only be engaging but also provide equitable financial rewards, enabling young individuals to secure a respectable standard of living. This will ensure their integration into the workforce with dignity and purpose. 5. Gender and family promotion. The text discusses the importance of gender equity in agriculture, emphasizing that women face disparities in income and farming opportunities when compared to men. To address this, the strategy prioritizes gender inclusion, ensuring women have equal access to agricultural resources and decision-making processes. The approach aims to empower women, enhancing productivity and household agricultural output. Updating the Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy aligns with this vision, focusing on adopting labour saving technologies to improve efficiency and the quality of agricultural products. This transformational framework serves as a catalyst for engaging diverse stakeholders and driving social and economic change in agriculture. 6. Leveraging the private sector. Recognizing the critical role of the private sector in driving innovation and investment, this priority seeks to foster a conducive environment for private sector participation and collaboration in the agricultural sector. 7. Digitization of the Agri-food systems. Digitization will fuel the transformation both on farms and in the wider Agri-food systems. Digital solutions have transformational potential for improving production, quality, traceability, finance, planning and several other aspects. 8. Capacity development. The complexity of the Agri-food systems requires strong actors. Interventions across the strategy will target capacity building of farmers, value chain actors, and systemic enablers (policymakers, public servants) during implementation to achieve sustainable results. 9. Adaptive management in implementation. This priority underscores the importance of flexibility and responsiveness in management practices, allowing for continuous learning, adjustment, and improvement of strategies based on evolving circumstances and insights. 10. Disaster Management. Despite the emphasis of PSTA 5 on building resilient and sustainable food systems, disasters may still occur that cannot be prevented. Agriculture remains a sector particularly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards and disasters. Risk mitigation and disaster management are integral components of the interventions proposed under PSTA 5. Promoting good agricultural practices continues to be a priority to reduce risks at the farm level. During PSTA 5, agricultural research should consider risk reduction, adaptation, and sustainability, while agricultural insurance products help farmers and stakeholders recover after a crisis. Additionally, capacities and 94 Speech by MINAGRI Minister of State, Knowledge Seminar, November 22, 2023 95 RAB internal source. 44 institutional systems will be strengthened to improve disaster preparedness by providing timely information and having response and recovery plans and systems in place. 11. Disability and social inclusion. Under PSTA 5, the theme of disability and social inclusion is critical to ensuring that all members of society benefit equitably from advancements in agriculture. PSTA 5 emphasizes the integration of persons with disabilities into all aspects of agricultural development, ensuring that they have equal access to resources, training, and opportunities. Inclusive policies and programs will be designed to remove barriers and create enabling environments for disabled individuals to participate fully in the agricultural value chain. Through targeted interventions, capacity building, and awareness campaigns, PSTA 5 aims to foster a culture of inclusivity, empowering individuals with disabilities to contribute to and benefit from resilient and sustainable food systems. 12. Data and Statistics. Under PSTA 5, data and statistics are very important in building resilient and sustainable food systems. Accurate, timely, and comprehensive data collection and analysis are essential for informed decision-making and strategic planning. PSTA 5 emphasizes the enhancement of data management systems to ensure the reliability and accessibility of agricultural data. This includes leveraging advanced technologies and methodologies for data collection, processing, and dissemination. By strengthening the capacity for data-driven analysis, PSTA 5 aims to improve monitoring and evaluation processes, identify trends and challenges, and support evidence-based policy formulation. The goal is to create a robust data ecosystem that supports continuous improvement and innovation in the agricultural sector. 13. HIV /AIDS and NCDs. Under PSTA 5, addressing HIV/AIDS and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is essential for building resilient and sustainable food systems. Recognizing the impact of health on agricultural productivity, PSTA 5 integrates health considerations into its strategies and interventions. Efforts focus on raising awareness, providing education, and ensuring access to healthcare services for individuals affected by HIV/AIDS and NCDs within the agricultural community. By promoting healthy lifestyles and supporting disease prevention and management, PSTA 5 aims to enhance the well-being and productivity of farmers and agricultural workers. This holistic approach not only improves individual health outcomes but also strengthens the overall resilience and sustainability of the agriculture sector. 14. Research and Development. Under PSTA 5, research and development (R&D) are cornerstone activities for advancing resilient and sustainable food systems. Emphasizing innovation, PSTA 5 supports comprehensive R&D initiatives aimed at improving agricultural productivity, sustainability, and climate resilience. This involves fostering partnerships between research institutions, universities, and the private sector to drive technological advancements and the adoption of best practices. Key areas of focus include developing climate-smart agricultural technologies, enhancing crop and livestock varieties, and promoting sustainable land and water management practices. By investing in R&D, PSTA 5 seeks to generate new knowledge, solutions, and tools that empower farmers, enhance food security, and contribute to the long-term sustainability of the agricultural sector. 15. Regional and International positioning. PSTA 5's focus on "Regional and International Positioning" is crucial for enhancing Rwanda's competitiveness in the global agricultural market. This theme is justified by the need to integrate Rwandan agriculture with regional and international markets, ensuring local farmers and agribusinesses can access broader markets, benefit from trade agreements, and attract foreign investment. Key activities to implement include establishing strategic trade partnerships, participating in international agricultural fairs and exhibitions, enhancing export quality standards, and facilitating knowledge exchange through global collaborations and training programs. These efforts will help position Rwanda as a leading agricultural hub in the region, fostering economic growth and sustainability. 45 4.4. Theory of change The Theory of Change identifies the pathways between the strategic priorities and the expected results, by addressing root causes of systemic barriers for actors in the Agri-food system. The core problem for most actors in the system is financial capital. Subsistence/semi-commercial farmers generally have insufficient resources to invest in improving the production, mitigating risks, and meeting basic needs of the household. As a result, there is a low uptake of technologies, which in turn causes yield gaps in the animal and crop production, lower incomes with direct effect on food and nutrition security. This has a consequence on the other actors of Agri-food systems as the off-takers do not get sufficient quality produce from farmers while the input and service providers struggle to sell their products and services to the producers. Furthermore, consumers in general are either having limited access to sufficient and quality food or having insufficient incomes (considering that about 68% of the consumers are farmers) to fulfil their food needs in terms of quality and quantity. The key strategic entry point for unlocking the system is to connect farmers to remunerative markets, which increases farm incomes and fuels the system. When farmers are connected to attractive markets that are profitable or remunerative, incomes from farming increase, and so does the ability and incentives to invest in inputs and technologies which further increase production and reduce risks to the production (including climate risks). Due to this investment, there will be more jobs for farm workers, more business for inputs and service providers, and more produce for off-takers. Consequently, production, jobs, and incomes increase across the Agri-food systems. Food availability, access, and stability will contribute to the benefit of consumers, which will lead to the substantial use of nutritious food, and improvements in food security and nutrition outcomes. The boosted farm incomes to fuel the system will be the basis for increasing uptake of enabling functions, which will propel the system further forward. Market-oriented farmers will be able to invest in technologies and extension services, stimulating the production of modern technologies and services which will be provided by the public sector, research institutions as well as the private sector institutions. Enhancing the quality of these institutions will have a multiplicative impact on the Agri-food systems. This will also be coupled with digitalization, to ensure a smooth and more efficient running of the system. With increased cash-flows, cash-flow based lending will be possible, creating finance to fuel the system further. Moreover, farmers will be able to afford agri-insurance to increase resilience against disasters. Finally, with increased commercialization and incomes, system actors will be able to afford the use and maintenance of infrastructure at the level of production, post-harvest, and further stimulate the development of agricultural value chains. Youth will play a key role in this transformation. With improved enabling factors, youth will play key functions in the Agri-food systems as commercial farmers, skilled farmworkers, and entrepreneurs across the entire system, leading to the creation of more decent jobs. The potential of women’s increased participation in the value chains will be unlocked. With the transitioning system, opportunities to increase women’s labour market participation will increase. However, the barriers are specific to each context, so all interventions will need to consider the barriers and circumstances preventing their equal participation. Vulnerabilities to various shocks must be addressed in the short and medium term. The full transition is not expected within this strategic period. There will be a continued need to support resilience of vulnerable households – smallholders in particular. Critical consideration will be given to climate change adaptation and shocks mitigation to ensure food availability at households and national level in the foreseeable future. This Theory of Change informs the Priority Areas to be discussed in detail in the following sections, and especially how they are interlinked. These are the Modernization of Agriculture and Animal Resources Production for resilient Agri-food systems (the production side); Inclusive markets and post-harvest management for sustainable Agri-food systems (the supply and post-harvest handling side) and strengthening the systemic enablers. Financial and technical investments in the 46 three priority areas while considering the cross-cutting areas will ignite the transformation of Agri-food systems in Rwanda toward the desired impact. 4.5. Key innovations The PSTA 5 brings on board the following key innovations: Increased focus on Agri-food systems thinking. PSTA 5 takes a holistic approach realizing the role of agriculture as a generator of both incomes and food for the population. It considers the actors of the system and the relationships between them to engender improved outcomes. Furthermore, it considers the full spectrum of sectors in the system including health, environment, trade, infrastructure, digital economy, the financial sector etc. and the interaction and linkages between the sectors. This approach calls for increased emphasis from MINAGRI on its role as a coordinator, regulator, and facilitator of the Agri-food systems, coordinating the efforts of other public and civil society actors and leveraging the private sector. This requires an increased focus on managing knowledge and planning jointly with other actors. Increased focus on climate resilience. Recognizing climate change as a tremendous force with severe impact on incomes and food security, the PSTA 5 will prioritize climate resilience. This includes climate smart agriculture practices, including sustainable land management, soil health, water management as well as climate resilient seeds and breeds. Regenerative agriculture techniques will be embedded in the extension system, and the focus of research will be to develop and implement climate resilient technologies and practices. New management of agricultural land through agriHubs and Food Basket Sites s. To achieve the desired agricultural productivity and growth, an innovative approach to land management will be implemented. Agricultural land with potential for consolidation will be identified and mapped to facilitate focused interventions from both the public and private sectors. This initiative aims to enhance production for food security and commercial purposes. Infrastructure investments, such as irrigation systems, cold chain facilities, post-harvest handling, and feeder roads, will be prioritized based on the specific needs of these sites to strengthen production and market linkages. Farm Service Centres (FSCs) will be established around these areas to provide critical support, including inputs, private-led extension and mechanization services, out-grower services and other essential services. The identified sites will be categorized into two classifications: AgriHubs and Food Basket Sites (FoBaSi). AgriHubs as envisioned in the PSTA 5 strategy, are market-driven agricultural production sites operating on large land parcels with at least 500 hectares and often featuring irrigation systems. They will be mainly operated by large scale farmers and/or investors and equipped with advanced modern infrastructure including irrigation systems and production and post-harvest machinery. AgriHubs will target both domestic and export markets. Food Basket Sites (FoBaSi) will capitalize on consolidated land sites of not less than 5 hectares that are agglomerate under one management for production, product aggregation and marketing. They will be mainly managed by smallholder farmers organizations with support from the Government over a period of five years after which the food baskets will be autonomous. The production under FoBaSi will be mainly oriented to food security, domestic and the export markets. Depending on the specific needs and characteristics of the sites, various management models will be adopted: • Cooperative-driven model. This farmer led model is functioning in certain areas, but generally needs substantial improvement in governance and technical capacities. The Government and various development partners will support them with professional management skills to enable them to run autonomously and professionally after 5 years of PSTA 5 implementation. • Out-grower model. Off-takers sign supply contracts and provide services to farmers. This model may work in some value chains, especially export value chains with fewer options for 47 side-selling. Support will be performance based and directed toward increased production and strengthened market linkages, incentivizing the out-grower to invest in farmers and farms. • Land-leasing model. A farmer or investor takes over the production and pays landowners a fixed fee, or possibly a share of revenues or production, and they may be employed as workers as well. Under this model, the role of the government is to ensure facilitation and fairness between the parties. Strengthening the Country’s commodity reserves to address market volatility and relieve pressure on the production sector. Given the price volatility seen in recent years and the foreseen instability from climate change, the Government will not only invest in expanding the national strategic reserves for grains but will also strengthen private-led commodity reserves. Whilst production from Food Basket Sites and AgriHubs will increase, the core mandate of these reserves will be to secure the most affordable food staples available while limiting the food inflation. Meanwhile, the core focus of the agriculture sector will be transitioning into sustainable commercial models. New and focused model for improving household resilience. Support to vulnerable households will be focused on facilitating graduation out of poverty while mitigating risks affecting household production. The focus will be on food access, nutrition, and climate resilient production. Increased emphasis on research. Research in modern, climate and nutrition smart technologies will be critical for the transformation. Several centres of excellence will be established to provide demand driven innovation, facilitate coordination with research networks and education institutions, and ensure uptake through training and collaboration with the private sector. National Agri-food systems coordination. Under PSTA 5, with the adoption of complex approaches such as Agri-food systems and AgriHubs, the role of the public sector is gradually transitioning from a "tactical" implementing role to a "strategic" facilitating role. This shift will pave the way for increased participation and significant interventions by the private sector and non-governmental institutions in supporting the advancement of Agri-food systems. This shift entails establishing robust regulatory frameworks, crafting incentives, and designing programs with systemic impacts. It also requires a strong commitment to robust knowledge management and the establishment of effective Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) systems to ensure continuous improvement in the impact of investments in Agri-food systems. At the central level, the MEL system will be necessary to align institutions with this more strategic role, coordinate and guide the efforts of private, governmental, and non-governmental entities in their implementation roles. 48 49 Priority Area I 50 Priority Area I: modernization of agriculture and animal resources production for climate-resilient Agri food Systems This Priority Area covers the production side in the Agri-food systems focused on increasing crop and animal resources production. Land stands out as the scarce production factor, highlighting the necessity to improve land productivity, which would yield the most significant impact on the Agri-food systems. This requires a new approach to address land fragmentation, land health, climate change adaptation, inputs, crop pest and disease control, agriculture water resources management and mechanization. Simultaneously, efforts will be directed towards enhancing and diversifying incomes and diets through the improvement of animal resources production systems. This endeavour involves bolstering infrastructure for livestock production, optimizing animal feeding, refining breeding techniques, and strengthening animal health systems. By elevating productivity levels at the farm level and considering climate change, the groundwork is laid for increased incomes, food security, and increased resilience across the agricultural landscape. Outcome 1.1 Modernized crop production and productivity As indicated in previous sections, there has been substantial uptake in agricultural inputs, irrigation, and mechanization in the PSTA 4 period. However, despite the concerted efforts and substantial investments over the past five years, the anticipated evolution in production and productivity has yet to materialize. Challenges persist, exacerbated by the accelerated impact of climate change, casting uncertainty over the attainment of PSTA 4 targets. The following subsections present a plan to turn this around for the next strategy, but also introduces new priorities reflecting the emerging landscape. Particularly, PSTA 5 puts higher priority on new production models, selected priority crops and commodities aiming at sustainably increasing productivity with climate smart practices, improved inputs distribution models while leveraging the capacity of women, youth, and the private sector to a larger extent. The selection of priority crops and commodities within PSTA 5 largely mirrors previous strategies, albeit with a particular focus on increasing resilience to shocks and augmenting agriculture production. The following is an overview of key crops and their anticipated growth trajectories: Maize: Holds a pivotal role as a cereal in the national diet balance sheet, contributing significantly to both caloric (16%) and protein (13.3%) production. Its importance extends to industrial applications, with a projected production increase of 72% by the end of PSTA 5. Notably, maize serves as a crucial component of the strategic reserve due to its commendable storability. Irish potato: As a staple food and valuable cash crop, Irish potato production is forecasted to surge by 92% by the end of PSTA 5. The introduction of new varieties suited to lower altitudes promises to broaden production beyond its current niche, particularly in the Eastern Province where land availability facilitates expansion. Beans: Beans like maize, constitute a significant staple food, contributing 16% to caloric production and 30.3% to protein production. Efforts are underway to address the challenge of low yields through the development of high-yielding varieties and the promotion of climbing beans. Despite productivity constraints, fortified high-iron bean varieties hold promise for nutritional enhancement, with a targeted increase in production of 50%. The promotion of high iron beans is done through linking producers to the school feeding programmes and domestic markets. Soybean: Soybean is a high-value crop that has garnered attention from the government of Rwanda due to its numerous benefits for both human consumption and the agricultural value chain. Known for 51 its nutritional value, versatility in food production, and potential as a key input for agro-industries, soybean is positioned as a strategic crop within Rwanda's agricultural transformation agenda. The crop's suitability to Rwanda's agro-climatic conditions further enhances its potential for scaling production and contributing to food security, economic growth, and the development of the agricultural sector. By the end of PSTA 5 implementation, soybean production is expected to double. Additionally, sunflower cultivation will be introduced and tested for higher productivity and potential as complementary or alternative crop to soybean, especially in processing industries. Cooking Banana: With its substantial contribution to both caloric (15%) and protein (5.3%) production, banana stands as a vital alternative to Irish potatoes. Enhanced production hinges on improved plantation management and the provision of high-quality suckers for replanting, facilitating plantation reconversion. The production of cooking banana is projected to increase by 40% over current annual production. Wheat: Wheat is an important staple crop globally, providing a significant portion of the calories in many diets. In Rwanda, the demand for wheat has been growing due to changing dietary patterns and the increasing demand for processed foods like bread, pasta, and biscuits. However, the country has traditionally relied on imports to meet its wheat needs, creating an opportunity for local production that is projected to nearly double in the next 5 years. This will help the country in its endeavor to reduce dependency on foreign wheat and contribute to national food security. Cassava: Acknowledged for its potential for high yields and resilience to climate shocks, cassava contributes significantly to caloric production (13%) and serves as a raw material for various industries. Efforts to bolster cassava production align with PSTA 5 that focus on building resilient and sustainable Agri-food systems. The strategy targets to increase cassava production by 23%. Rice: Building on yield improvements witnessed during PSTA 4, rice cultivation is earmarked for promotion to reduce reliance on imports, which currently satisfy 40% of domestic demand. Expansion and efficient management of existing irrigated schemes, alongside the establishment of new ones, are pivotal to double rice production as per the PSTA 5 targets. Fruits and vegetables: The two commodities encompass an important number of species and varieties already in production in Rwanda. They are recognised for their nutritional and economic value. Their production volume will be more than doubled in response to the projected increase of domestic and export demand. 52 Output 1.1.1 Agricultural land management and production models improved Situation The National Land Use and Development Masterplan 2020-205096 outlines a growing need for a substantial reconfiguration of rural landscapes to take place over the coming decades. This entails reserving 1,243,300 ha for agriculture by 2050 and concentrating investment toward modern commercial agriculture on the 841,400 ha. that are deemed “highly” suitable for agriculture. Over the next few decades small homesteads are to be gradually consolidated in more concentrated rural settlements in a bid to increase production and promote structural change with more off-farm jobs, and fewer and better paid jobs in agriculture production97. Both public and private investment in agriculture development is often complementary to other investments. For example, the returns to investment in production are higher if complemented by investment in post-harvest handling, market infrastructure, and processing in the same location. Most importantly, investment in the management of infrastructure and of farmer organizations is critical for creating sustainable commercial agriculture models linking farmers to markets. Unfortunately, cooperatives and other farmer organisations often struggle with acquiring the capacity to manage infrastructure, create operations, assets, and offer attractive markets for their members (see Section 3 and Output 2.2.1: Organisational models). Yet, over the past decade, new organizational models have emerged. For example, out-grower service companies in the tea sector, have significantly increased productivity and incomes for farmers and agricultural workers98. Another example is NASHO irrigation cooperative (NAICO) Eastern Province which has quadrupled yields over the past decade99. Finally, the Gabiro Agribusiness Hub, being completed, is expected to generate significant private investment, substantially improve yields of high-value crops, and create approximately 4,000 jobs. The government is identifying agricultural land that is potential for consolidation, mainly to form the “Food Basket Sites s," primarily owned by smallholder individual farmers or cooperatives, with most plots around 5 hectares and some larger irrigated sites, PSTA 5 aims to develop sustainable commercial large-scale production models in high-potential areas (named AgriHubs in this document), creating market opportunities for all farming households. Key strategic interventions Underpin the transition with a Land-use Masterplan and clear regulations and guidelines for land use and land-lease. The transition will be supported by a Land-use Masterplan with clear regulations for land-use and land-lease. Districts will identify high-potential areas for agricultural transformation, guiding investments. A comprehensive masterplan will consider socio-economic and agronomic factors, along with improved land-use and lease guidelines. Studies show that younger farmers have higher land productivity, suggesting that well-designed lease regulations can improve productivity, investment, and sustainability 100 . Additionally, since female-headed households own less land than male-headed households, it is crucial to ensure women's participation in land tenure programs. Inclusive land-lease models can optimize land use and increase incomes for both landowners and lessees. AgriHubs and Food Basket Sites. The government and partners will invest in AgriHubs and Food Basket Sites by partnering with the private sector, supporting farmer organizations, infrastructure, and market linkages, aiming to enhance food security and create sustainable commercial farming organizations within five years. These sites will be provided with infrastructure, technology, soil fertility management, mechanization, irrigation, and post-harvest support, customized to local needs. Locations 96 GoR, 2020, National Land Use and Development Masterplan 2020-2050 97 GoR, 2020, National Land Use and Development Masterplan 2020-2050 98 Bourque, R, 2020, in it for the long haul: Transformative impact from The Woods Foundation Africa and Gatsby Africa’s investments in the Rwandan tea sector 99 Mukeshimana, Gloriose, Christophe Mupenzi, Janvier Ndayambaje, 2023, “Analysis of Irrigation Development to Crop Production in the Kirehe District Case of Nasho Irrigation Scheme”, East African Journal of Science and Technology, Vol.12 Issue 1, 2022 Narmah, (P.19 –29) 100 IFPRI, 2024, Rwandan farmer typologies, (forthcoming) 1 2 53 will be prioritized in areas with large irrigation schemes and consolidated plots over 5 hectares. AgriHubs are more market-oriented and big investors-led sites and they will gradually expand to cover Food Basket Sites, where management will be simplified. For both types of agricultural sites, the public sector will facilitate financial incentives, strengthen farmer organizations, and collaborate with the private sector on sustainable projects, monitoring results through MEL (Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning). Output 1.1.2: Small-holder farmers supported for household resilience Situation Over the past decades, various public programs have aimed at supporting agricultural households, with mixed levels of success. Smallholders have benefitted from initiatives such as input subsidies, including seeds, fertilizers, and cuttings, designed to increase agricultural productivity. Historically, smallholder support under the Crop Intensification Program (CIP) has served a dual purpose: improving household level food production and contributing to the national production of staple crops. Key strategic interventions Support smallholders to create Food Basket Sites (FoBaSi). Farmers outside Food Basket Sites will be informed about related interventions and supported to create the sites voluntarily. This will be a major step to increase their access to climate resilient technologies. Furthermore, they will be sensitised on the importance of graduating to AgriHubs and becoming more commercial which will increase their agriculture income and reduce poverty. Output 1.1.3: Urban and peri-urban farming promoted Situation Urban and peri-urban areas provide a controlled environment agriculture (CEA) and other cutting-edge agriculture technologies in proximity to urban markets. Such technologies can increase access of city dwellers to fresh and nutritious food, urban greening, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem resilience. Moreover, peri-urban areas offer opportunities for agri-tourism. Key strategic interventions Promote investment and start-ups with high-intensive, climate resilient, and nutrition sensitive production models: including hydroponics, vertical farming systems; and aquaponic systems, rooftop gardens and mushroom production etc. Building capacity of youth and women farmers working in urban areas to foster a business oriented approach and producing highly nutritious income generating crops such as fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Build capacity in these practices and business models through demonstration sites to train youth and women. Mainstream agro-ecotourism activities in urban and peri-urban farming areas. Agro-ecotourism or agri-ecotourism is a blend of agri-tourism and ecotourism activities that PSTA 5 seeks to leverage. It exposes and engages visitors in socially responsible, eco-friendly, and sustainable farming practices and learning about local produce and culture. It is designed to create off-farm activities, on-farm farmer’s markets and thus increase farm incomes. Agro-ecotourism sites, once strategically established and organized, offer visitors participate in experimental farming practices by immersing themselves in the agricultural lifestyle such as cow milking, traditional milk processing, etc. Mainstreaming agro ecotourism will promote local agriculture products and provide an authentic Rwandan rural experience. 2 3 1 1 54 Output 1.1.4: Climate-smart agriculture practices improved Situation The country is facing a growing impact from climate change with increasing temperatures resulting in weather related disasters. In addition, Rwanda’s topography, compounded by sub-optimal agriculture practices, contributes to significant land degradation and soil erosion, which reduces soil fertility. Remote-sensing based data suggest that the country currently has about 1.1 million ha at risk for soil erosion, of which about 867,000 ha. are currently insufficiently protected101. Building on Rwanda’s Nationally determined contributions (NDC) 2020 and the revised Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy (GGCRS), PSTA 5 outlines a bold strategy for protecting all agricultural land at risk within this strategic period. This will substantially reduce both the impact of climate related disasters by reducing the ongoing depletion of soil quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this will sustainably increase long-term productivity and nutritional outcomes for small-holder farmers and vulnerable groups. There will be a need for substantial resources and capacities to adapt to the impacts of climate change and manage floods and soil erosion across the Rwandan watersheds. This includes investment in climate smart practices and land husbandry such as Conservation Agriculture practices, terracing, nature-based solutions, agroforestry, improved fertilizer recommendations informed by soil maps, increased use of lime, organic fertilizers, and soil conservation. Furthermore, many climate-smart techniques have improved nutrition potential - for example, agro-forestry and upstream planting of orange fleshed sweet potatoes. Policies and stakeholder coordination nationally and within catchments will be required for successful implementation. Moreover, weather and climate conditions are among the factors governing agriculture activities, they have a very significant effect on the performance of the agriculture sector in Rwanda. The agricultural sector is highly dependent on weather conditions and at the same time vulnerable to climate and weather-related risks, including prolonged droughts, erratic rains, floods, hailstorms and landslides. Key strategic interventions Promote Integrated Watershed Management Approach. Catchment restoration requires involvement of stakeholders ranging from the national level to land-users within the catchment. Sub-catchment committees will be established across all Level 3 catchments across the country to coordinate and plan interventions that respond to the unique condition of each catchment. The committees will be part of restoration design and approve activities to restore the catchments. Relevant activities include establishing terraces, agroforestry, storm-water management and other solutions to strengthening land health, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity. Climate Change adaptation and Mitigation Measures. As Rwanda advances its efforts in agricultural intensification to boost productivity, it will emphasize sustainability measures such as promoting conservation agriculture (CA). Conservation agriculture entails various practices, including minimizing soil disturbance, preserving soil cover, diversifying crops, integrating nutrient management through customized application of organic and inorganic fertilizers, adopting agroforestry systems, integrated pest management strategies, implementing efficient irrigation methods, and integrating crop-livestock systems. Establish climate smart information systems and advisory services. Weather and climate conditions significantly impact agriculture in Rwanda. The sector is highly dependent on weather and remains vulnerable to climate-related risks like droughts, erratic rains, floods, hailstorms, and mudslides. To enhance farmers' resilience, it's crucial to improve access to timely and affordable weather information. However, access alone is not enough; the information must be clear, actionable, and meaningful for 101 IUCN, 2022, The State of Soil Erosion Control in Rwanda 1 2 3 55 farmers and decision-makers. The private sector will be supported to help disseminate customized weather information and advisories to farmers. Enhance weather and climate information dissemination. Providing timely and affordable weather information and advisories and empowering farmers with precise, actionable weather information for enhancing crop management, productivity, and resilience against weather variability is very important in building the adaptation capacity of farmers. In addition, the weather information and advisory should be customized and tailored to guide activities and decisions of farmers towards optimizing the efficiency of their activities. Output 1.1.5: Irrigation and water resource management improved Situation Irrigation is critical for increasing productivity and mitigating climate-driven drought risks. Rwanda largely depends on rainfed agriculture, with 71,585 ha irrigated by 2023 versus a potential of 596,810ha. While some irrigation and watershed projects perform well, others face underutilization, poor maintenance, and limited access to affordable energy. Cooperatives and water user organizations require capacity building to develop viable business models for maintaining and replacing infrastructure. PSTA 5 prioritizes expanding irrigation by completing ongoing large-scale schemes, although planning delays, feasibility studies, and infrastructure challenges remain barriers. Establishing large-scale irrigation schemes typically takes five years, requiring substantial water and electricity supplies in remote areas. New large-scale schemes will be planned for the next strategic phase. Small-scale irrigation will be prioritized in PSTA 5 due to its faster implementation and broader farmer reach. However, running costs, especially for fuel, pose challenges. To address this, solar-powered small-scale irrigation systems will be piloted and potentially scaled up. Sustainability and broad access to irrigation remain key objectives. This includes training farmers, supporting youth-driven organizations to manage large-scale schemes, and promoting water harvesting techniques. Maintenance models and capacity-building initiatives will be critical to ensuring long-term irrigation success for both large- and small-scale projects. Key strategic interventions Expand and optimise large-scale irrigation. The strategy aims to activate 20 schemes covering 45,000 ha with existing feasibility studies, initiating 19 new schemes across the country. Priority is given to areas with well-functioning farmer organizations, high agricultural potential, and commercial value, ensuring cost-effectiveness and sustainability in new and rehabilitated marshland irrigation schemes. Furthermore, investments will also put into maintenance and rehabilitation of the existing schemes. Roll out Small-Scale Irrigation Technologies (SSIT). Will be rolled out to generate more rapid results. Solar driven equipment will be piloted to reduce running costs for farmers. At least 30% of the SSIT shall be given to women farmers, to even out the existing gender disparity where for example 16% of men headed households have access versus 10% of female headed households102. Promote water harvesting. The government has successfully increased farmers’ access to water saving technologies and equipment like dam-sheets and rainwater harvesting facilities in drought-prone areas. The Pilots of water-saving technologies and their dissemination will continue in the coming period. Build alliances for implementation and maintenance of irrigation schemes. Strong organisations to manage irrigation schemes are critical for ensuring the organisational model will be specific to each scheme. Irrigated land will be prioritised for AgriHubs to manage while outside AgriHubs, the scheme will be managed either by private companies, cooperatives, or water user’s organisations. 102 NISR, Agriculture Household Survey, 2020 4 1 2 3 4 56 Consideration will be given to the capacity of managing entities and they will be supported according to their needs. Promote water saving and efficiency technologies to increase water productivity. This initiative is aimed at standardizing and improving the quality of irrigation methods throughout Rwanda. The RAB Centre of Excellence for Mechanization will broaden its focus to encompass irrigation, establishing itself as a key centre for training and research for both farmers and irrigation experts. This will be in collaboration with the Rwanda Institute of Engineers (RIE), which plays a critical role in educating and enhancing the skills of irrigation professionals. Output 1.1.6: Access to agricultural Inputs for climate-resilient production improved Situation Rwanda has seen significant progress increased in adoption of improved seeds and fertilizers from 2018 to 2023, reflecting an ongoing shift to improved agriculture practices. The use of quality seeds surged during this period, with Season A uptake for small-scale farmer increasing from 12.5% to 36% and large-scale farmer uptake increasing from 53% to 86%103. Furthermore, Rwanda has achieved remarkable self-sufficiency in seed supply for maize, soybean, and wheat through enhanced local seed production, reducing dependency on imported seeds104. This achievement is credited to the active participation of both private and public sectors, significantly surpassing the targets set by PSTA 4105. On the other hand, concerns about seed quality persist, especially for hybrid maize and horticulture seeds, indicating a need for continued focus on producing high-quality seeds to meet agricultural standards and to get climate-resilient and bio-fortified seeds in the country (See Output 3.1.1)106.The period also saw the application of inorganic fertilizers double from 32 kg/ha in 2017 to 70.3 kg/ha in 2023107, and uptake of organic fertilizers increased from 48.2% of farmers to 83.4% in Season A108. However, the reliance on inorganic fertilizers without proper soil amendment has not translated into proportional yield improvements. In some cases, fertilizers effectiveness is compromised by the absence of soil information and limited availability of complementing organic fertilizers. Quality seed use is foundational to the desired agriculture modernization. Guided by the Rwanda Seed Strategy and Investment Plan anchored on PSTA 5, a robust and vibrant private led-seed system will be developed that complies with level five of seed industry requirements. Rwanda’s seed system will be fully accredited internationally (ISTA, OECD, UPOV), and the seed industry will constitute a significant contributor to agriculture exports in addition to satisfying local demand. 103 NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Survey, 2018 and 2023. 104 “RWANDA ENDS SEEDS IMPORT” – RAB Website Source: https://www.rab.gov.rw/1-1/news-details/rwanda-ends-seeds import#:~:text=''In%20this%20season%2C%20we,Minister%20said%20in%20the%20interview 105 PSTA 4 – MTR. Page 50-51. 106 Consultations with farmers in Kigali, Northern Province, and Eastern Province 107 MINAGRI Annual report, 2023 (Page 10) 108 NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Survey, 2018 and 2023. 5 https://www.rab.gov.rw/1-1/news-details/rwanda-ends-seeds-import#:~:text=''In%20this%20season%2C%20we,Minister%20said%20in%20the%20interview https://www.rab.gov.rw/1-1/news-details/rwanda-ends-seeds-import#:~:text=''In%20this%20season%2C%20we,Minister%20said%20in%20the%20interview 57 Key strategic interventions Promote functional Farm Service Centres. FSCs are hubs providing farmers with a complete range of services including quality inputs, capacity building information, finance, technology, and market linkages109. They will be established to address previous issues related to delays in availability of timely delivered quality inputs in the required quantities. FSCs will be local hubs for entrepreneurship and job creation for professionals in various agriculture services and inputs. Increase local production and storage of improved seeds and fertilizers in partnership with the private sector. Local seed production will be strengthened by focusing on improving quality through variety maintenance, basic seed production and quality inspection. The priority for seed development is climate resilience, market preference, nutrition content, and yield potential of new varieties. Local production of organic fertilizers. Local production of inorganic fertilizers will be promoted. Moreover, ongoing production of local organic fertilizers will continue110, and a strategic seed reserve will be established to support farmers in emergencies (see Output 2.3.4). Increase efficiency of agriculture inputs with soil testing and bio-fertilizers. Recommendations based on soil tests and crop suitability maps to ensure the right quantity and blend of various organic and inorganic fertilisers is used in a certain area for a given crop. Output 1.1.7: Plant health management enhanced Situation Plant protection and pest management are crucial in Rwanda's agricultural sector due to diverse crops facing increasing pest pressure. The National Agriculture Policy emphasizes the need for integrated approaches to manage pests sustainably. Yield losses from pests such as potato bacterial wilt and late blight can reach 100%, threatening food security. Other pests, such as fall armyworm and Striga weed, also pose significant challenges. Cassava production suffers from diseases like cassava mosaic disease and cassava brown streak disease, with estimated yield losses at 100%. Coffee production faces annual losses of up to 40% due to coffee leaf rust and significant damage from insect pests like the coffee berry borer. The control of diverse crop pests that damage crops continue to be critical, especially when compounded with the impact of climate change. Protective measures include using pest-resistant cultivars, cultural control, biological control, pesticides, and quarantine regulations Key strategic interventions Carry out pest surveillance, risk assessment, and information systems. Implement a comprehensive pest surveillance and monitoring program aimed at tracking the occurrence, spread, and intensity of pests and diseases impacting both crops and natural environments. This entails deploying skilled personnel in the field, leveraging remote sensing technology, and setting up early warning mechanisms to swiftly identify pest outbreaks. Moreover, Disease Incidence should be monitored statistically though the Seasonal Agriculture Survey. Build public awareness and capacity building in plant protection to enhance the connection between surveillance and practical application. Results from the Pest surveillance will be communicated through different communication channels and the public will be given capacities of how to deal with plant health identified issues. 109 Existing agro-dealers or agriculture cooperatives may collaborate to form these centres. Six farm service centres are already established in 6 districts including Nyabihu, Karongi, Ngororero, Bugesera Gatsibo and Nyamagabe and have started providing services to farmers. (CNFA.org/farm services centres) 110 “RWANDA LAUNCHES A FERTILIZER BLENDING FACTORY WITH AN ANNUAL CAPACITY TO BLEND 100,000 TONNES” – MINAGRI website source: https://www.minagri.gov.rw/updates/news-details/rwanda-launches-a-factory-with-an annual-capacity-to-blend-100000-tonnes-of-fertilisers 1 2 3 1 2 https://www.minagri.gov.rw/updates/news-details/rwanda-launches-a-factory-with-an-annual-capacity-to-blend-100000-tonnes-of-fertilisers https://www.minagri.gov.rw/updates/news-details/rwanda-launches-a-factory-with-an-annual-capacity-to-blend-100000-tonnes-of-fertilisers 58 Use IPM techniques in extension. Institutionalized in Farmer Field School (FFS) and extension system from farming to post-harvest as well as promoting the use of biodiversity in agricultural systems to control or reduce pests and diseases. Enforce the regulatory frameworks and biosecurity measures. Enforcement of quarantine protocols and phytosanitary measures to reduce infiltration and spread of pests and diseases. For import/export activities access to superior plant materials will be balanced against bio-security risks. Furthermore, improving the process for registration and certification of biopesticides and biofertilizers. Output 1.1.8: Mechanization and labour-saving technologies promoted Situation The agricultural sector in Rwanda is heavily reliant on manual labour, impacting overall productivity and efficiency across various crop value chains, including priority crops like rice and maize. Just about 1% of farmers use mechanization 111 . From ploughing to harvesting and post-harvest handling, most activities are labour-intensive, affecting the workload especially for women who mostly do the fieldwork112. Even the application of fertilizers and pesticides is primarily manual, posing health risks to the farming community. This situation mirrors the current state of mechanization in Africa which remains relatively low compared to other continents with 65% of farms dependent on human labour, 25% are powered by drought, and 10% by engine power113. PSAT 5 efforts towards mechanisation will target suitable solutions considering land availability and topography. Key strategic interventions Operationalize the Centre of Excellence for mechanization. The centre will research, develop, and produce agricultural machinery as well as training users. Partnerships will be established to higher education, TVET, and research institutions. Research and dissemination will be targeted to identified needs amongst farmers. Enhance entrepreneurship and innovation for mechanization with innovation fund (de-risking facility). Incentivize uptake of mechanization through training and financial incentives to farmers and value chain actors. This will attract investment and entrepreneurship in the mechanization space comprising for example assembly, distribution, importation, and maintenance of equipment. Priority will be given to introducing mechanization technologies tailored to the needs and capacities of women farmers such as power tillers, small-scale tractors, and portable threshers. Promote Sustainable Practices. The strategy underscores the importance of adopting mechanization that aligns with environmental conservation and natural resource preservation. Advocacy for practices such as direct sowing, minimal tillage, land levelling, and crop residue retention will be prevalent. Outcome 1.2: Modernized animal resources production and productivity Animal products have been the fastest growing agricultural sub-sector over the past decade including the PSTA 4 period where output grew by 8.5% per year on average114. Animal product value chains present excellent opportunities for generating incomes to farmers and value chain actors and highly nutritious food for the population. Whilst the beef and dairy value chains remain large and important, other value chains such as eggs, fish, poultry, pigs, honey, and rabbits are emerging as nutritious high 111 NISR, Seasonal Agriculture Survey, 2023 112 MINARI, 2019, Women and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy 113 Africa Agriculture Status Report, 2023. Page 68 114 NISR, National Accounts 3 4 1 2 3 4 59 value alternatives with lower feed intensity. Rwanda’s comparative advantage is expected to be in these value chains given the scarcity of land. Despite the progress, only 60% of households consume protein rich food 115 , and there is still a significant untapped potential to grow the production further and close the gap. This outcome addresses key challenges and opportunities related to animal husbandry practices, breeding, animal health, affordable feeds, finance, and relevant infrastructure for production and value addition. These factors are complementary and therefore the strategy will take a clustered approach concentrating efforts toward tangible results. Output 1.2.1: Animal husbandry and infrastructure in animal hubs improved Situation Addressing the core challenges to build value chains requires concentration of complementary infrastructure and capacities relevant to the specific value chain. For optimal use of resources and capacity, the strategy will adopt a spatial approach concentrating the provision of public investment and services in high-potential areas for each animal value chain and creating opportunities for private investment. There will also be investment in feeder roads, post-harvest management, and market infrastructure to strengthen the linkages in the Agri-food systems (see Outcome 2.2). This approach allows for tailoring interventions to local contexts. For example, supporting compliance with the newly adopted zero-grazing policy in the Eastern Province, and other local factors. Key strategic interventions Demarcate AnimalHub locations for specific value chains in collaboration with Local Governments and communities. This includes aggregation of producers in specialized cohorts with the common interest of providing training, increasing access to inputs, and access to infrastructure and coordinating marketing, and the full value chain supported by digital platforms. Initially, each district will select one animal value chain to focus on and plan the required investment in relevant infrastructure. Investment will be tailored to the local contexts with provision of value chain specific infrastructure and services. For example: o Milk and Dairy: water infrastructure, feeder roads, Milk Collection Centers (MCCs) and Milk Collection Points(MCPs), manure management. In zero-grazing zones, there will be focus on animal feed production, water management, and standard compliant sheds. o Beef farm, sheep, and goats: to be in areas less suitable for cultivation. Focus on proximity extension, veterinary services, and value addition. o Pigs: Focus on value addition, specialized extension and veterinary services, and feed storage in selected locations. o Poultry: Focus on feed and specialized vet services in hub locations. Support out-grower models such as with nucleus farms providing poultry to surrounding small-scale farmers. o Aqua Parks: Provision of suitable infrastructure, fish-feed, specialized veterinary services. For cage aquaparks environmental compliance will be emphasized, whereas for pond aqua parks there will be focus on extension services and involving local communities. o Honey: Hubs will be located near forests adequately distant from cultivated areas. Focus will be employment creation for local communities providing modern equipment, capacity building, and bee queens. Enforce and build capacity to implement the zero-grazing policy in Eastern Province. The Eastern Province will be a Hub for livestock in which optimal production entails protecting animals in sheds considering the climate conditions in the area. Farmers are to invest in improving livestock sheds and water infrastructure in compliance with RAB and requirements for the design, construction, and 115 NISR, CFSVA, 2021 1 2 60 operation of animal sheds. Public support is provided in the form of capacity building, and provision of dam-sheets and other farm machinery. Output 1.2.2: Sustainable animal breeding established Situation Genetic improvement drives Rwandan livestock development, with modern pig husbandry practices, Artificial Insemination (AI) centers, and advanced semen delivery technology boosting pig production. In dairy, the Songa bull center supports local bovine semen production, enhancing yields by crossbreeding resilient local cows with high-yielding exotic breeds. The breeding systems in Rwanda face multiple challenges: Firstly, limited access to high-quality parent stock and inbreeding small ruminants has led to lower productivity and quality of seep, goat, and pig meat. Secondly, there is limited access to bovine AI services due to logistical issues and insufficient skilled AI technicians and semen conservation and delivery systems leading to a low success rate of 40%116. Consequently, most farmers prefer natural mating which has its own challenges: disease transmission (e.g., Brucellosis), inbreeding, and poor genetic potential of the bulls affecting productivity of the offspring. Thirdly, production of poultry, fish, and honey are severely limited by availability of chicken, fish fingerlings, and bee queens. Key strategic interventions Establish breeding centres for different livestock. Breeding centres including a centre of excellence will introduce improved breeds to maintain access to healthy productive animals and genetic diversity within the herd or flock. The centres will provide access to embryo transfers and other fertilization techniques and provide capacity building for AI technicians. Establish certified hatcheries for poultry and aquaculture, and bee queen rearing centres. These will be established and expanded to meet the demand and requirements for substantially increasing the production of honey, eggs, white meat. Establish LN2 (Liquid Nitrogen 2) plants near AnimalHubs to ease logistics for AI provision. Skill development plans to increase AI success rate in cattle to 60%. Implement a holistic policy and standards framework. For sound livestock breeding practices, integrating regulations, policies, breed standards, herd/flock books, and identification systems. This comprehensive approach aims to drive sustainable genetic resource management, fostering positive and enduring changes in Rwanda's livestock sector. Output 1.2.3: Access to animal feed improved Situation The animal feed sector faces challenges including high cost of raw materials, poor quality, and storage constraints, limited regulatory compliance amongst feed traders. Additionally, resource and infrastructure limitations, including water shortages, insufficient research, and a shortage of large-scale feed processing capacity, further impede the growth of improved forage production and overall feed processing capabilities117. Furthermore, local factories struggle to overcome regional competition due to high operational costs118, hindering competitiveness. Addressing these challenges involves efficient land use, access to quality seeds and water, and reducing machinery costs for farmers. 116 RAB, 2019. ADOPTION OF ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION AND SUCCESS RATE IN DAIRY CATTLE IN RWANDA 117 Rwanda livestock master plan (2017/18-2021/22) 118 due to being a landlocked country. 1 2 3 4 61 Fundamentally, there is competition between producing raw materials for animal feeds versus for human consumption, which typically have higher value119. Yet, over the past few years, opportunities have emerged to produce animal feed sources on small land and areas not suitable for staple crops. For example, producing protein from insects and producing climate resilient grasses, which can be grown at high intensity at hydroponic facilities. For example, Napier grass cuttings, Brachiaria, Panicum, Chloris, Leucaena, Panicum, Disodium, Mucuna and Barley fodder120. Key strategic interventions Increase the nutrient reserves of animal feed plants to improve access to raw materials. Increasing grain storage capacity and sourcing animal feed ingredients locally or globally at relatively low cost, particularly during periods of high grain production, would reduce production expenses (see 2.3.3). Encourage PPP models promoting investment and entrepreneurship to produce alternative sources of animal feed. Including circular economy concepts such as insects for animal protein, food waste, hydroponics for climate resilient grasses. Support to farmers in fodder production and conservation including acquisition of the machinery used in fodder harvesting and processing. Strengthen R&D and dissemination of climate-resilient fodder varieties. To respond to the effects of climate change on livestock nutrition, it is important to do research on drought-tolerant fodder grasses and legume species. Output 1.2.4: Animal health systems strengthened Situation Over the past decade, the demand for veterinary services in Rwanda has grown due to increased livestock production and emerging animal diseases like Rift Valley Fever (RVF), Swine Erysipelas, African swine fever (ASF), and Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR). Effective animal health systems are crucial for early diagnosis, prevention, and control of diseases, particularly zoonotic ones that can spread across borders. These diseases limit trade, food security, and public health, especially in rural areas. The situation is worsened by climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and increased animal and human movement. A multisectoral approach, as outlined in Rwanda’s One Health Policy, is needed to address these challenges. Expanding animal health facilities, improving disease surveillance, and enhancing preparedness are key. Additionally, there is a need to improve farmers' knowledge of diseases, biosecurity, and access to veterinary services, while addressing gaps in veterinary human resources, particularly in emerging value chains. Key strategic interventions Provide affordable and sustainable proximity veterinary services to farmers to enhance animal and zoonotic disease prevention and control through fostered public private partnerships and One Health approaches. Establish clinics with veterinary doctors and paraprofessionals across the country. The clinics will emphasize vaccinations and disease surveillance. Trained Community Animal Health Workers (CAHWs) will be providing basic animal husbandry and health services in communities. Affordability will be facilitated through implementation of Veterinary Sanitary Mandate (VSM) and through collaboration with cooperatives and off-takers as per Customized Agriculture Extensions System (CAES). Furthermore, to strengthen capacity for veterinarians, paraprofessionals, livestock owners, and abattoirs for detecting and reporting unusual animal health incidents. And finally, to collaborate across agencies to safeguard Rwanda against the risk of AMR and incursion of diseases. 119 PSTA 4 MTR Final Report. 120 MINAGRI, 2022. Annual Report 2021 – 2022 FY. 1 2 3 1 62 Strengthen national epidemio-surveillance programme for early warning and monitoring of animal diseases. A unit in RAB will be established to identify outbreaks and emerging diseases early, provide information for implementing control and prevention measures, research, data collection, and investigations on animal health and disease prevalence, and finally to report on animal health status every 6 months. Furthermore, to upgrade veterinary laboratories capable of diagnosing and differentiating relevant infections or infestations. Finally, veterinary laboratory service diagnostic capacity will be strengthened across the country to improve quality and accessibility. Strengthen digital technologies and innovations to transform veterinary services. Update and maintain livestock registry for cattle and other livestock, both for genetic planning and disease mitigation. The demand for digital skills and innovations is expected to rise in the future within all stakeholder groups of the animal health sector. Beyond health management, this system will have several other use cases for planners and value chain actors, and there will be a need to capacity building on digital technologies across the value chains. Output 1.2.5: Fisheries and aquaculture developed Situation Rwanda's fisheries and aquaculture sector made significant strides in the PSTA 4 period toward boosting fish production. Efforts included enhancing fingerlings production, promoting investments in aquaculture, and fisheries, alongside robust extension services and surveillance121. Whereas capture fisheries cannot go much beyond its current level of about 40,000 MT/year, there is significant potential to increase aquaculture production. This modern approach to aquaculture promises to enhance fish production through efficient resource use, minimal environmental impact, and improved fish growth rates. The main challenges for further growth are cost of fish-feed, availability of fish-fingerlings, access to specialized extension and veterinary services, infrastructure, and adequate biosecurity measures. Key strategic interventions Establish the national aquaculture research centre. The centre will be tasked to provide fingerlings by conducting adaptability trials of various fish species of economic value across various regions of the country to integrate them into production, as well as testing feeding trials for locally produced feeds and developing strategies for disease prevention and treatment, among other responsibilities. Develop certified private hatcheries. The government will engage private investors to set-up certified hatcheries. Demarcate sites for aquaparks. Clustering of fish-farms to provide infrastructure, extension and veterinary services, coordination for bulk purchase of inputs, and aggregation of produce, and value addition. Promote private investment in fish-feed plants. Facilitate access to affordable raw materials through public bulk payments and storage. Use de-risking to incentivise investment. Promote circular economy models for providing affordable fish-feed. De-risk entrepreneurship and investment in technologies that use animal waste, integrate with plant production etc. 121 MINAGRI Annual reports, FY 2020-21 (page 69), FY 2021-22 (page 63) and FY 2022-23 (page 49) 3 1 2 3 4 5 2 63 Output 1.2.6: Beekeeping developed Situation Honey production has considerable potential for exports, value addition, and income generation, not least for vulnerable groups. Over the PSTA 4 period output increased from 5,105 to 7,250 MT (2018 2023). Training initiatives targeting young beekeepers, emphasizing modern methods and advanced techniques for increased productivity contributed to this growth122. It is reported that there are 120,000 beekeepers in the country of which 35% are using modern methods.123 The critical constraints to increased production includes access to modern equipment and bee queens plus royal jelly, and potential health threats from pesticides on cultivated land. Key strategic interventions Promote modern sustainable beekeeping practices in suitable zones. Proximity coaching and field trials to enhance capacity of youth, women, and people with disabilities in key beekeeping zones124 such as Nyungwe, Gishwati, Mukura, Virunga National Park, Akagera National Park, and Ruhande/Arboretum. Support in the zones will comprise access to modern equipment and queens; training in IPM, best apiculture practices, disease management, business management. Promote market linkages for high-value international markets and processing. This will facilitate investment at production level. Encourage value addition with honey-based items like mead and cosmetics in local communities through the de-risking facility (see Output 3.2.1). Strengthen national research and development and regulations. Research into bee genetics should be promoted to sustain the development of bee strains that are more resilient to diseases and environmental stressors and developing customized educational programmes for beekeepers. Moreover, research efforts should concentrate on increasing the quantity of melliferous plants and pollinator-friendly flora around apiaries and IPM techniques. These will inform development and implantation of regulations and policies to protect bee populations in the selected zones. 122 MINAGRI, Annual Report 2022/23 123 “Revitalizing Rwanda’s beekeeping to increase quality and quantity of bee products” https://www.fao.org/rwanda/news/detail-events/ru/c/1373162/ 124 MINAGRI Annual Report, 2023. (Page 50) 1 2 3 https://www.fao.org/rwanda/news/detail-events/ru/c/1373162/ https://www.fao.org/rwanda/news/detail-events/ru/c/1373162/ 64 Priority Area II 65 Priority Area II: Inclusive markets and post-harvest management for sustainable Agri-food systems. Priority Area II considers the demand-side in the Agri-food systems, i.e. post-harvest handling, value addition, markets, and consumers. Developing the domestic market is essential for food security and nutrition, while export markets provide opportunities for increasing incomes and attracting investment. The aim is to transition agriculture from subsistence to commercial farming, through enhancing market access and increasing incomes for farmers. Strengthening the demand-side will be the basis for commercialization of production, hence catalysing agriculture transformation and ensuring food security and nutrition. Outcome 2.1: Boosted agriculture exports There are compelling reasons to boost agriculture exports. Firstly, exports are relevant for the trade balance. But equally important, agriculture exports carry the highest potential for agriculture transformation through their potential for attracting private sector investment and linking farmers to high value markets. Agriculture exports revenue increased by USD 235 million between 2018 and 2023125, but there is still room for substantial growth. The main factors to drive growth will be to increase the branding and value of exports and to increase the production volumes. Output 2.1.1 Export crops expanded Situation The core of increasing Rwanda’s agriculture exports is to boost production volumes in existing value chains and to promote new value chains with export potential. Export value chains are relatively well functioning in general, but each value chain has unique bottlenecks hampering further development. In coffee, the main problem is low yields due to ageing trees, climate change, and sub-optimal agricultural practices. Whereas coffee has excellent market prospects, investing in rejuvenation is limited due to the long maturity period of 3-5 years combined with relatively low farmgate prices. In contrast, tea farmers have seen increased incomes and production in recent years from successful out-grower models126 , but there is limited value addition, and farmers face difficulties getting tea puckers. Both coffee and tea plantations are vulnerable to fluctuating temperatures related to climate change. In coffee, mulching and intercropping with shade crops (i.e., banana) is a possibility, but with increasing climate change, production at lower altitudes will become increasingly difficult and new production sites will be needed at higher altitudes. The budding horticulture value chains such as avocado, French beans, chilli and others have shown significant market potential over the past few years, but struggle with nascent business structures, inadequate and costly cold-chain logistics, cost of seeds, traceability, access to standards, and agronomic skills for export-oriented production. 125 NAEB Statistics 126 Gatsby Foundation, 2020, IN IT FOR THE LONG HAUL: Transformative impact from The Wood Foundation Africa and Gatsby Africa’s investments in the Rwandan tea sector 66 Key strategic interventions Demarcate land for exports in AgriHubs. Land for export crops will be demarcated within AgriHubs, offering access to inputs, services, and post-harvest facilities. Guiding principles for the selection of Hubs will be local growing conditions, income potential, and stakeholder interests. For high-value products, land-lease and profit-sharing models are likely possible. Expand coffee and tea plantations. New coffee and tea areas will be established at higher altitudes in response to climate change challenges. There will be guidance for improved practices and extension guides for climate smart production, which have been developed127. Increase the planted area for other exports crops: areas for other export crops will be identified and designed. Initial Hubs will consider zones for chilli, avocado, French beans, and passion fruit, and others. The focus will be on protected agriculture, traceability, food safety and quality standards compliance, and critical post-harvest facilities. Promote cost-effective post-harvest handling and processing facilities and their operationalization in the AgriHubs. This includes cold-chain facilities that are fit for purpose, new technologies for aggregation, quality testing, packaging, storage, transport, and others. Public support to accessing inputs, access to quality and traceability standards, and other services will be planned in collaboration with off-takers. The government will conduct relevant research for optimal agricultural practices and extension services including climate-smart practices, intercropping, and advanced agriculture production systems (e.g., protected agriculture) tailored to the export market. Unlock growth in new potential export value chains to diversify exports. Diversifying exports increases resilience against global shocks. When a new potential product has been identified through market intelligence or private sector initiatives, new impediments and structural constraints usually emerge. The Government will adopt a systemic approach to discovering and addressing such impediments through various support modalities such as infrastructure provision, research, capacity building, inputs, advisory for standards compliance, business development support, and financial support. Output 2.1.2: Rwandan agri-exports de-commoditized Situation Rwanda’s agriculture exports are dominated by commodities with limited branding and value addition, and producer margins on export crops are limited. For example, the quality of Rwandan coffee has increased significantly over the past decades, yet branding and penetration in high-value markets are less than desired, and Rwandan coffee producers are subject to volatility in international commodity prices and legal barriers in destination countries. The share of fully washed coffee has increased to 76% of total exports, but roasted coffee is less than 1% of coffee exports128. In tea, about 25% is sold through direct sales, and value addition is limited. Whereas some value-added products are exported to the region, it remains a small share of total exports. As a result, Rwandan producers have limited market power. For example, in 2023, the average farmgate price for coffee was RWF 410 – under 7% of the average export price at RWF 6,242129. Strengthening marketing, branding, value addition as well as creating alternative selling options will increase the market power for Rwandan producers and increase incomes. 127 Reference made to the Green Gicumbi Project managed by Rwanda Green Fund 128 NAEB July 2022- June 2023 Statistics Report 129 NAEB Statistics 1 3 2 67 Key strategic interventions Enhance the market share and public diplomacy. There will be resources allocated towards branding Rwandan high value agri-commodities and strengthening market intelligence in foreign destinations. Also to facilitate direct linkages between Rwandan exporters and foreign buyers and increase Rwanda’s market share at international markets. Strengthen the home market for diversified export products. Spurring a strong home market for exported commodities will improve resilience against international price shocks. It will also strengthen the country’s brand in tourism sectors and increase bargaining power against foreign buyers of products. Establish and improve agriculture export facilities to promote value addition and diversification of Rwandan agriculture exports. The focus will be on developing infrastructure, labs, capacity, resources/investments, services, mechanization, packaging across the value chain. Promote investment in de-commoditization of exports. The government will proactively seek private investment for developing these export value chains further and transforming the agriculture sector. In addition, viable investment packages will be designed to attract global operators for production, value addition, or infrastructure, and identify. For high-risk/first mover products, public ventures will be considered aiming at crowding-in private investment and creating systemic change. Outcome 2.2: Strengthened market linkages and post-harvest infrastructures As outlined in the Theory of Change, the commercialization of farming is identified as a crucial catalyst for agricultural transformation. This necessitates the development of robust market linkages between farmers and their buyers. These linkages take the form of physical (hard) infrastructure, processes, and systems (soft infrastructure) as well as in the relationships established between market system actors. This outcome aims to strengthen these linkages by considering farmer organizations linking the 2.3 million farming households to markets, post-harvest infrastructure, quality standards, value addition, and trade infrastructure. Output 2.2.1: Organisation models of farmers and value chain actors improved Situation With land fragmentation and small plot sizes, effective organisation of farmers is critical for improving their market access and their market power. Farmer organizations in Rwanda are largely dominated by agricultural cooperatives, which are set up to solve input and output market problems. Currently agricultural cooperatives take the biggest share of close to 48% of the total registered cooperatives (4,946 out of 10,563) with 1.14 million members. On the other hand, only 13% of farmers report to be selling through cooperatives 130 , and consultations across the country have found low member involvement and ownership due to widespread management and governance capacity deficiencies in most cooperatives. In recent years, new organizational forms such as Out grower Service Companies (OSCs) have emerged with some success in the tea value chain. While OSCs typically address some of the governance and capacity issues, they require significant capital investment to be effective. 130 NISR, 2020, Agriculture Household Survey 1 2 3 4 68 Key strategic interventions Concentrate investment in farmer organizations in AgriHubs. Public and civil society efforts will be concentrated in farmer organizations to create market linkages to off-takers. Professional management will be established and fully funded in the first year. External support will be phased out over a 5-year period after which the cooperatives shall be financially sustainable. Establish a dedicated capacity and enterprise development program of agricultural cooperatives to become farmer led enterprises. MINAGRI in close collaboration and support from MINICOM to establish a capacity-building programme in governance, financial management, member involvement and business development for agricultural cooperatives to ensure sustainability. To separate the management and governance roles within the cooperatives there should be structured incentives or compensation mechanisms for cooperative leaders for effective and efficient delivery. Encourage partners and the private sector to promote new farmer organisation models (out grower service models and contract farming). Civil society, farmers and other private sector players are encouraged to develop alternative and innovative models, which improve market access for farmers. Further strengthening farmer organizations through establishing information-sharing platforms, providing extension services, and leveraging digital technologies to disseminate timely and relevant information to farmers through their mobile phones. There shall be specific emphasis on the formation of producer groups among youth and women farmers, encouraging collaboration and collective action in the production and marketing of agricultural products. Output 2.2.2: Post-harvest handling for reduced losses improved Situation Post-harvest handling and value addition are crucial for food quality, safety, and boosting incomes through commercialization and exports. Nutritious food is perishable, so adequate facilities are key to ensuring access to healthy diets. In PSTA 4, the government focused on improving post-harvest handling, reducing losses from 16.4% in 2019 to 13.8% in 2023. However, a recent 2023 study by RAB highlighted significant losses across value chains: maize (13.8%), beans (11.3%), rice (12.4%), tomato (33.5%), cassava (24.8%), and Irish potatoes (25.2%). These losses are highest during processing and at collection centers, primarily due to inadequate training and extension services on post-harvest handling and marketing. Key strategic interventions Carry out post-harvest training to enhance post-harvest handling and storage of perishable nutritious foods and animal products. Training on various post-harvest practices, tools, and technologies for handling perishable crops and animal products will be given. Thematic training modules on safe handling practices will be developed and disseminated in collaboration with academic institutes and the private sector. There will be specific training sessions on food preservation techniques such as drying, canning, and fermentation targeting women farmers. This empowers women to extend the shelf life of their produce, thus reducing food waste and increasing market opportunities for their products. Innovation on cool chains, drying and preservation and local manufacture of post-harvest equipment and technologies will be encouraged, Develop a viable private sector driven operating model for post-harvest handling. The private sector plays the main role in operating post-harvest facilities. An agriculture de-risking facility is to be established to foster public-private partnerships with capacity building and financial support Construction of small-scale rural-based agro-processing units and value addition facilities to allow preservation of crops closer to production sites, provision of transport technologies tailored to the needs of smallholder farmers. 1 2 3 1 2 69 Output 2.2.3: Agriculture commodity safety and quality increased Situation Rwanda's informal Agri-food systems are predominantly informal and generally lack proper post-harvest handling. This raises concerns about safety, nutrition, and accessibility of diverse food items. Social and economic factors shape dietary patterns, contributing to preventable food-related diseases, a leading cause of morbidity and child mortality. Key safety concerns include parasites, bacteria, and mycotoxins, posing serious health risks. Aflatoxins, particularly prevalent in maize, ground nuts, chilli, cassava, and dairy, are a significant focus. Rwanda has recently established institutions to promote food safety standards development and compliance, but they face challenges in implementation, in part due to overlapping mandates. Streamlining and empowering these bodies are essential to effectively address food safety issues. Accountability and service delivery must be assessed and improved to enhance their contributions to Rwanda's food safety and quality standards. Requirements for compliance and traceability are on the rise in global markets such as the EU. Key strategic interventions Improve institutional coordination. To ensure efficient utilization of resources, and to optimize the collective impact of the institutions, there is a need for clarified demarcation of the functions and responsibilities of relevant authorities in charge of quality control, standards, rules and regulations, and conservation. Additionally, given the significant impact of these institutions on business outcomes, it is important to include the views of market actors when assessing institutional performance. Develop standards and a traceability system. The government will focus on improving food standards, enforcement, and changing behaviours to tackle food contamination and waste, which happens mostly after harvesting and in informal processing places. Additionally, a traceability system will be set up with the aim to trace food in critical commodities, starting with General Agricultural Practices (GAP) certified export products, and gradually rolled out across the Agri-food systems. Build capacity in testing, and food safety awareness along value chains. A national program will be rolled out to educate farmers, traders, and local processors as well as Youth and women-led Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) on best practices related to food safety and quality standards. This initiative will also provide access to testing and affordable technologies that enhance food safety from production to post-harvest handling. A network of extension services will be established to offer continuous guidance and support. Business support schemes. A business support scheme is set to be established, aimed at offering financial and technical SMEs dedicated to advancing food safety standards. This scheme will offer technical advisory services and grants to SMEs that invest in safe food handling practices, adopt food safety management systems, and comply with national and international food safety standards. Priority will be given to address the most serious safety concerns related to consumption of contaminated food. Output 2.2.4: Value addition increased Situation Agro-processing gross value added was about RWF 864 bn in 2022, which is about 64% of total manufacturing sector value added. The World Bank estimates Rwanda’s food processing sector to reach US$340 million by 2024, highlighting the growing domestic demand131. However, there is a large untapped potential to add more value to agricultural produce. For example, in 2021, only about 8% of the milk production was channelled through Milk Collection Centres, and they were operating at 53% 131 https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/binaries/agroberichtenbuitenland/documenten/publicaties/2024/04/30/rwanda-agri economic-outlook/Rwanda+Agri-economic+outlook.pdf 1 2 3 4 https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/binaries/agroberichtenbuitenland/documenten/publicaties/2024/04/30/rwanda-agri-economic-outlook/Rwanda+Agri-economic+outlook.pdf https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/binaries/agroberichtenbuitenland/documenten/publicaties/2024/04/30/rwanda-agri-economic-outlook/Rwanda+Agri-economic+outlook.pdf 70 of capacity. Moreover, increasing processing is an opportunity to increase both farmer incomes and nutritious food through fortification. Key strategic interventions Promote public-private partnerships with systemic large-scale impact. Larger agro-processors to be incentivized to act as anchor firms investing in their value chains toward creating systemic impact for farmers and increasing availability of quality raw materials for processing. Increase investment in local facilities for value addition. The de-risking facility will incentivize entrepreneurship and investment in local facilities for value addition. Including small livestock slaughter slabs, local dairy plants linked to MCCs, local whole grain flour mills, extending value chains and others. Build capacity and enforce compliance with food safety and quality standards. Public institutions and private sector providers will support processors in compliance with standards and food safety regulations at the processing units. Increase food fortification in processing. Staple fortification is a relatively cost-effective way to rapidly enhance nutritious outcomes in the short to medium term. The assigned regulatory bodies will support processors to access the relevant certificates to produce fortified food products. Output 2.2.5: Trade infrastructures improved Situation Rwanda’s topography hinders the construction of effective transport, logistics, and trade networks. Roads in rural areas are largely unpaved and often in poor condition. In addition, the country’s storage infrastructure is limited. While there has been progress in expanding the road network and storage facilities, challenges in the transportation of produce remain. E-Soko data often find over 50-100% price differentials in markets across the country, which is indication of significant market imperfections. A relatively small share of crop and animal products goes through the formal trade channels. The key impediments are lack of feeder roads, transport facilities, standard storage facilities and limited access to market information. Availability of cost-effective electricity and water to the collection centres and storage facilities is limited. For example, in 2023, only about 8.6% of the milk production was channelled through Milk Collection Centres, and they were operating at 53% of capacity132. With additional milk powder factories and dairy plants under construction, there will be a sustained opportunity for increasing the supply. Small livestock slaughter facilities are scarce, thus poor meat quality and safety, leading to low meat exports compared to imports. Key strategic interventions Operationalise the Kigali Wholesale Market, community markets, and other strategic facilities. The Kigali Wholesale Market will be operational in this strategic scheme. Wet markets in local areas are also critical for availability and access to nutritious food, which is often perishable, and livestock markets are available where needed. Improve transport networks including feeder roads focused toward AgriHubs and Food Basket Sites s. There will be a concerted effort between MININFRA and MINAGRI under the umbrella of Agri food systems to avail and improve the transport infrastructure, ensuring swift and efficient movement of agricultural produce. 132 MINAGRI, 2021. Annual Report 2020 – 2021. 1 2 3 4 1 2 71 Support standards compliance at markets. To ensure improvement in trade and increase market access, there is a need to follow national and international standards and regulations across various agricultural commodities as a priority. Regulations, enforcement, capacity building and effective market infrastructure will be implemented in collaboration with competent public institutions to develop food standards further. Outcome 2.3: Improved food security and nutrition The consumption of nutritious and safe food is a critical aspect of public health and well-being, and it has been on an upward trajectory, driven by various government initiatives, civil society effort, and international partnerships aimed at promoting food security and improving nutrition. This component targets the promotion of stable availability, access, and utilization of a safe, nutritious, and varied diet. Output 2.3.1: Food security and nutrition improved Situation Rwanda's agricultural growth hasn't fully addressed food security challenges; 21% of households are food insecure133 with child stunting at 32.4%134. Food production falls short of national needs by 19% in protein, despite the initiatives like One-Cow-per-Poor-Family that aim at improving nutrition and income amongst the most vulnerable households. Malnutrition is mainly caused by limited consumption of nutritionally diverse foods, and insufficient consumption of animal proteins and diversity in vegetables and fruits. Dietary diversity is 5.5 out of 12 and largely unchanged between 2018 and 2021. It is 6.7 in urban areas and 5.3 in rural areas. Key challenges include lack of animal proteins and costly nutritious foods in rural markets. Economic vulnerability exacerbates food insecurity, with 29.5% of households spending over 65% of their income on food135. Malnutrition stems from limited diverse food intake, micronutrient deficiency, and unhealthy diets, impacting children, adolescent girls, and pregnant/lactating women136. To combat these issues, the government promotes home gardening, diverse agricultural practices, and nutrition education campaigns. Several policies and tools have been implemented to enhance nutrition interventions. These are for example the Nutrition Sensitive Agricultural Mainstreaming Guidelines 2020, the Rwanda Food Composition Table (RFCT), The Nutrition Sensitive Crop Calendar, The Food Based Dietary Guidelines and ongoing research on biofortified beans and orange-fleshed sweet potatoes contribute to enhancing nutrition interventions. Additionally, nutrition-dense foods such as green leafy vegetables, avocados, and carrots, are promoted with a target to improve dietary diversity and nutrition nationwide. Strategic public-private partnerships promote nutrient-dense products’ consumption through campaigns, cooking demos, and nutrition education. Collaboration ensures policy implementation involving district units, health workers, and technical experts. Joint actions were taken to promote consumption of NDP through Nutrition Campaign, Social Protection, cooking demonstration and kitchen gardens and nutrition education. The government promotes home gardening, diverse agriculture, and conducts nutrition education campaigns. In PSTA 5, four strategic interventions have been identified to contribute to the Rwanda’s vision on eradicating malnutrition: 133 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 134 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 135 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 136 NISR, 2022, CFSVA 2021 3 72 Key strategic interventions Promote consumption of nutritious food stimulated. Transition to wholegrains and fortified foods, greens, and fruits (school feeding, defence, police, correction facilities etc.) This promotes healthy eating habits and creates a market for producing nutritious food. Where possible, use wholegrains in the grain reserve. Wholegrain processing can produce around 30% more content and is nutritionally superior to refined processing, so it can feed more people with the same number of grains if distributed within its shelf-life period. Maintain and scale up nutrition sensitive social protection programmes. Maintain and scale successful social safety nets programmes such as Childhood Development Programs, VUP, and One Cup of Milk per Child Program; to increase accessibility and behaviour change toward nutritious food consumption amongst infants. Still, the high stunting rates calls for other social protection interventions which ensure the well-being of vulnerable populations through better access to quality, nutritious and diversified food, and income generating activities to afford nutritious food and healthy diets. Additional measures will be taken to build a culture for nutritious food. For example, behavioural change programmes, and fruit trees will be planted near schools and in other public spaces. Promote biofortified crops and industrial food fortification at the household level. The biofortified staple crops and vegetable varieties can be developed and they contain higher levels of important nutrients such as iron and zinc, addressing deficiencies. A comprehensive food fortification program targeting selected food vehicles will be implemented. This multifaceted approach encompasses firstly, policy development to mandate the fortification of cereals with essential nutrients; secondly, establishment of a regulatory framework with clear standards for nutrient types, levels, and quality control; and, thirdly, stakeholder engagement involving government agencies, food industry players, and civil society for coordination and compliance. Infrastructure enhancements will support the production and monitoring of fortified cereals. Implementing dietary guidelines and nutrition sensitive agriculture guidelines. Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) already in place are dietary recommendations expressed in terms of food and diet instead of nutrients, to be understood and used by the populations. Nutrition Sensitive Agriculture (NSA) Mainstreaming Guidelines (2020) provides systematic guidance for the designing, execution, and monitoring of nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs. The guidelines will be underpinned by events and activities to facilitate behavioural change amongst the population. Output 2.3.2: Households supported in nutrition-sensitive production Situation Many rural households, particularly those led by women, face challenges in securing adequate nutrition, income, and resilience against climate or economic shocks. Livestock production offers an opportunity to enhance household food security, diversify incomes, and improve the overall livelihood of families. Additionally, small-scale vegetable gardening can boost nutrition, particularly for vulnerable groups. Supporting women-headed households with animal resources and vegetable production will be a key step in addressing gender disparities and fostering household resilience. Key strategic interventions Distribution of Animal resources and Vegetable seeds to families: Eligible households will be supported with cow, small livestock (goats, pigs, sheep, rabbits and poultry). Additionally, they will be supported with Vegetable seeds for the kitchen garden to improve their standards of living in terms of nutritious and quality food. 1 2 3 4 73 Output 2.3.3: Food stability and mitigating related shocks ensured Situation In recent years, the global landscape of food security has faced unprecedented challenges. The COVID 19 pandemic has not only disrupted supply chains but also significantly increased the cost of agricultural inputs and food commodities. Concurrently, global events have further escalated these prices and led to scarcity of grains and inputs in 2022-24. In reaction to these crises, some countries have imposed export bans on food, compounding the problem and triggering a protectionist cascade that further restricts global supply137. Climate change has also aggravated the situation, impacting agricultural productivity more severely than ever before. Extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense, leading to crop failures and a reduction in food production. These fluctuations in food availability and prices disproportionately affect the most vulnerable households, spending a higher percentage of their income on food and have limited ability to absorb shocks. In Rwanda, the twin crises resulted in a major spike in food prices, with the inflation on locally produced food prices reaching 51% in November 2022138. To safeguard against these multifaceted challenges, the country needs to enhance its strategic grain reserve significantly. Such a reserve would enable the nation to source food from the most cost-effective markets, strengthen domestic agricultural value chains, and ensure the smooth functioning of the domestic market. An expanded and well-managed strategic grain reserve is a vital intervention for maintaining national food security and protecting the population against the vagaries of international markets and climate unpredictability. Key strategic interventions Expansion of warehouse facilities. Enhancing the grain reserve will require more warehouse facilities, including the construction of new storage units in key locations and upgrading existing ones to increase capacity. These facilities will be equipped with modern preservation technologies to minimize post-harvest losses and maintain grain quality. Strategic placement will optimize logistics for domestic distribution and import-export activities, strengthening the grain reserve system. Investments will include climate-controlled storage to regulate temperature and humidity, proper ventilation to prevent mold and moisture growth, and airtight seals to protect against pests and contaminants, especially to prevent aflatoxins. Improve early warning systems and forecasting. This is critical for reducing the loss of lives and livelihoods associated with natural disasters. Leveraging advancements in remote sensing and economic modelling, the strategy includes implementing a sophisticated early warning system. This system will integrate satellite imagery, weather data, and market trends to predict food price fluctuations and potential shortages. By employing predictive analytics, authorities will gain actionable insights that enable proactive management of the grain reserve, optimizing stock levels in anticipation of market shifts and climatic events. Strengthen the national gene bank to conserve seed. Recognising the critical role of resilience in food security, the strategy emphasizes strengthening the existing gene bank with a focus on preserving high-quality, diverse seed varieties. These seeds can be rapidly distributed to farmers in response to prolonged food shortages or crop failures. By safeguarding genetic diversity and ensuring access to climate-resilient seeds, the gene bank will serve as a vital resource for sustaining agricultural production and facilitating recovery during and after crises. 137 Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, James Thurlow, David Spielman, Jenny Smart, Gilberthe Benimana, Serge Mugabo, and Gracie Rosenbach, 2022, Impacts of the Ukraine and Global Crises on Poverty and Food Security, IFPRI Country Brief 5 138 NISR, 2024, Consumer Price Index 1 2 3 74 Priority Area III 75 Priority Area III: Strengthening Agri food systems enablers for effective and efficient delivery Several enablers are critical for strengthening both the agriculture production side, the side of consumers and value chain actors, and the linkages between actors. The prioritized enablers in PSTA 5 covers innovation and technology transfers, agriculture financing and de-risking, digitalization, planning and coordination. Improving the capacity of these functions underpins transformation of the system through availing critical service to farmers, market actors, and consumers. Outcome 3.1: Strengthened research and technology transfer for Agri-food systems transformation This outcome entails numerous programmes to improve support functions. For example, research and innovation facilitate most functions in the system. The research component focuses on linkages between institutions and the feedback with extension to increase farmer uptake. Education, especially agriculture TVET and food science, will be fundamental for agricultural transformation. Output 3.1.1: Demand-driven research enhanced Situation Research and technology transfer are at the core of agriculture transformation while adapting to climate change and mitigating outbreaks of various pests and diseases. The average return to investment in agriculture research is 40-60% globally, and it is higher in developing countries like Rwanda139. The PSTA 4 period focused on the development and release of high-yielding, disease and pest-resistant crop varieties and animal breeds, and various technologies to help farmers cope with climate risks140. Whilst there was progress in developing new varieties and breeds, and creating fertilizer rate recommendations, challenges remain. The main challenges include limited uptake and commercial use of developed innovations, the need for improved facilities in post-harvest research, gene-bank, ICT facilities, and irrigated test plots141. Furthermore, there is a need to develop and maintain a pool of highly skilled researchers in the applied research facilities. Research is dominated by the public sector. For example, in the national plant variety list published in 2021, 136 out of 170 plant varieties are owned by RAB and the remaining 34 are owned by private companies142. However, there is an opportunity to leverage networks of national and international research fora, including universities, the private sector, and global research institutions such as CGIAR. The Joint Action Development Forum (JADF) can lead to technology transfer and capacity building and enable evidence-based policy making and national development143. Key strategic interventions Develop high-yielding, nutritious, climate resilient, and disease resistant seeds and breeds. Priority will be given to developing high-yielding and disease-resistant crop varieties, and genetic enhancements in the animal sector. 139 MINAGRI, PSTA 4 140 MINAGRI, 2022, MTR; MINAGRI 2022/23 Annual Report 141 MINAGRI, 20221 MTR; Stakeholder consultations 142 National Plant variety list 2021 143Yongabo, P., & Göktepe-Hultén, D. (2021). Emergence of an agriculture innovation system in Rwanda: Stakeholders and policies as points of departure. Industry and Higher Education, 35(5), 581-597. https://doi.org/10.1177/0950422221998610 1 https://doi.org/10.1177/0950422221998610 76 Develop technologies related to soil management, inputs, plant health, and animal health. Research will concentrate on land health and Integrated Soil Fertility Management, pest and disease measures, and developing climate-smart agricultural practices, and high-intensive technologies such as hydroponics, aeroponics, and others. To further enhance soil health and productivity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions through CO₂ sequestration and mitigating methane emissions, a strategy for compost development will be implemented during the PSTA 5 era. Compost enriches soil organic matter, improves soil structure, and offers a sustainable alternative to synthetic fertilizers, promoting long-term agricultural resilience and productivity while contributing to the fight against global warming and climate change. Develop post-harvest and mechanisation technologies. The research will aim to produce post harvest technologies fitted to the Rwandan context, aimed at farmers accessing labour saving technologies and achieving improved quality and reduced post-harvest losses. Consider specifically labour-saving technologies that address the needs of youth, women, and persons with disabilities. Carry out conservation of genetic resources. Resources will be allocated to the collection, characterization, conservation, and archiving of data related to both native and exotic germplasm and genes to avoid genetic loss. The conservation of genetic resources, including microbial species, through ex-situ methods, will be carried out in dedicated infrastructure, such as the National Gene Bank in Rubona, and will be complemented by the establishment of selected in-situ conservation sites. The National Gene Bank will be revamped, expanded, and equipped and its management enhanced. Enhance research staff capacity. Research staff will be given PhDs, Masters and Non-degrees short term courses in core and emerging topics. Furthermore, there will be intensified efforts toward staff retention to maintain and grow the capacity for high quality and need-responsive research. Gender equality in the access to these opportunities will be ensured. Research will be promoted through scientific publications, and technologies developed by researchers shall be supported to access intellectual property and contribute to evidence-based policymaking. Strengthen the network with domestic, regional, and international research institutes. While maintaining a long-term National research program, regional and international research collaboration will be strengthened. In that way technologies available in the region and across the world will be introduced in Rwanda through patents and licenses to support the sector. Set academy-ministry research platform to review the progress and suggest research projects for joint mobilization of funds. Promote private sector investment in research (local, regional, and international companies). The national research institutions will expand collaboration with private actors to access new technologies to allow farmers to access high quality and productive varieties and breeds. Output 3.1.2: Customised agriculture extension system enhanced Situation The extension system is crucial for technology adoption and technology development. Ideally, they work in a dynamic iterative process, translating best agricultural practices and new technologies to farmers, as well as articulating the challenges faced by farmers to the research and policy communities. The Twigire Muhinzi extension model adopted in 2014 marked a shift towards a decentralized farmer to-farmer extension system, aimed at ensuring comprehensive access to advisory and extension services for all farmers in Rwanda. The model operates through a dual approach, utilizing both Farmer Promoters and Farmer Field Schools to disseminate knowledge and agricultural practices. This has resulted in a substantial increase in the outreach of public advisory services, expanding from one-third of households in 2012 to about two-thirds in 2015. An impact study found that FFS participants saw 2 4 3 5 6 7 77 their yields grow by close to 38%, while farmers trained by FPs had 11% higher yields144. Similarly, livestock producers who participated in Livestock-FFS (L-FFS) saw their yields of milk increase by 75%, from 4.5 to 7.9 Liters per day, and 90% of the participants saw improvements in animal health145. The program also successfully introduced climate smart agricultural practices in livestock. Another community-based extension model in animal husbandry practices is the use of Community Animal Health Workers (CAHWs). These are members of the community who receive training in basic animal health care and provide a limited range of basic veterinary services to the members of their community, often in association with or supervised by a graduated veterinarian146. The current extension model is recognized for its demand-driven approach, geographic accessibility, and the promotion of technology transfer. It encourages group formation, contributing to social cohesion among farmers and serving as a foundation for various development interventions. Additionally, it utilizes demo plots and experiential learning in Farmer Field Schools, empowering farmers with decision-making skills essential for effective farm management. Despite its success, the current extension system faces several challenges. Firstly, it is financially unsustainable and relies on public funds and voluntary work from Farmer Promoters. Farmers have limited funds available for FP training let alone a 6-months course in FFS, and the public funds can only reach a fraction of the more than 3.4 million farmers in the country. Secondly, the current system is limited in its scope and capacity for transformational topics beyond basic food commodity production. There is little capacity to cover important topics linking the farmers to opportunities and value chain development, i.e., post-harvest handling, business management, standards compliance, production of commercial crops etc. They are also uniform, one size fits all, and do not consider the various needs of different stakeholders. Finally, the system does not effectively provide a feedback loop from farmers to inform research and curriculum priorities. As a result, undesirable agricultural practices are still widespread in rural areas, including practices that promote erosion, the absence of crop rotation, excessive use of pesticides, limited utilization of organic manure and lime leading to soil acidification, and the application of a uniform fertilizer recommendation nationwide without considering the unique characteristics of each soil type (including under or over-use of fertilizers). The GoR has therefore developed the Customized Agriculture Extension System (CAES), to complement the existing system and make the extension system more sustainable responding to the needs of market actors. The implementation of CAES is based on the principle of subsidiarity that stipulates that extension to be effective and responsive to clients must be planned and implemented at the proximity of the beneficiaries where responsibilities between the different levels of the Government and the extension services participants are clearly defined. Although there has been some improvement in the livestock sector paying for CAHWs paid for by farmers and input providers147, the overall CAES system is yet to be implemented and will need substantially increased participation from stakeholders. Key strategic interventions Develop customized extension packages across commodity value chains. Customized extension packages will be developed in collaboration with different stakeholders, particularly farmers and market actors to respond to their needs. These packages shall be developed for a wider set of value chains. Special consideration is to be given to gender and youth. Based on farmer-to-farmer learning the extension packages need to include indigenous knowledge suited to different agro-ecological conditions 144 Musabyimana, Innocent, Ranganathan, Sankaranarayanan, and Hilda Vasanthakaalam, 2018, Success story of implementing the self sustaining agricultural extension system in Rwanda, Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development Vol. 10 (9) 145 RDDP, 2022. Impact assessment of L-FFS 146 VSF International (2018). Community-Based Animal Health Workers (CAHWs). Guardians for Quality, localised Animal Health Services in the Global South. 147 Orora wihaze, 2022. Feed The Future Rwanda Orora Wihaze Activity, quarter 3 Performance Report. Kigali, July 29, 2022 1 78 of the country and promote sustainable agriculture. The materials shall be tailored to the needs of different demographics, including women, men, youth, persons with disability, and elderly farmers. Conduct capacity development of extension service providers. The public sector will develop manuals for capacity building of extension service providers and introduce a certification system for quality assurance. Existing FPs, Master Trainers, FFS and L-FFS facilitators and Community Animal Health Workers (CAHWs) will be enrolled alongside emerging private providers, and private veterinarians and paraprofessionals will be engaged through Veterinary Sanitary Mandate (VSM). Youth in rural communities shall be given opportunities for this training with emphasis on participation from young women. Provide incentives and platforms for certified extension workers for service delivery. Both FFS and L-FFS shall be included in the CAES system. They will be allowed to sell services to private market actors who need capacity upgrading. Whereas the workers currently are mostly voluntary, a payment system is to be introduced for those who are certified and consistently provide services in their local communities. Whereas many Twigire Muhinzi FPs will be retained, the CAHW system will be expanded and branded as “Twigire Mworozi”. Furthermore, to promote cost efficient digital service delivery models building on previous experience will be leveraged. Strengthen the partnership between the Government, the private sector, and knowledge Institutions. The coordination task force will oversee quality assurance of extension materials, fund mobilization, and coordination of extension service providers. The task force will coordinate partnerships with market actors to incentivise extension services provision, as well as partnerships with research and higher learning institutions will be supported to strengthen their outreach programmes. The private sector partners will provide the feedback loop to research institutions and in some cases pay for the research. There will also be extensive involvement with farmers representing both youth, women, men, persons with disabilities, and elderly farmers to ensure that extension packages respond to their needs. The good practices, information, and success stories will be shared through knowledge sharing events such as research open days, agriculture shows and policy dialogues. Promote market linkages for sustainable financing of agricultural extension. There is a mutual benefit for off-takers and input providers to establish relationships with producers to ensure access to quality raw materials, and for financial service providers to facilitate transactions between farmers and off-takers. There is also potential for input providers to develop markets with farmers. Local Farm Service Centres should be leveraged to implement these strategies for continuity and support. Upgrade Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning. As the extension programme becomes more pluralistic and implemented by private partners, it is critical for the public sector to enhance its ability to monitor results and ensure learning and knowledge sharing. Public funds must be used where they generate the most impact for farmers and the Agri-food systems in general, and constant learning and adaptation will be necessary to ensure this. Output 3.1.3: Technical capacity, education, and skills developed Situation Sustained agriculture transformation will require a transition towards professional farmers trained extensively in good agricultural practices, animal husbandry, farm management, post-harvest handling etc. Yet over 91% of Rwanda’s 3.4 million farmers have only primary education or had no formal education at all148. Although the younger generation of farmers are comparatively better educated, still, 41% have only primary school education and 41% had no formal education. Hence, only a small proportion of farmers have received secondary level or extensive TVET education in agriculture practices. 148 NISR, Labour Force Survey 2023 2 4 3 5 6 79 Hence, there is a dire need to increase the level of education amongst farmers, especially in modern and commercial farming practices, as well as graduates in agronomy, veterinarians, and other Agri-food system related studies from higher learning institutions. Just 818 students graduated from higher education in agronomics or veterinary services in 2023149, while the number of students trained in farming is unknown. For a modernised Agri-food system and transformed rural economies, the education of professional farmers will need to be delivered at a large scale through TVET, secondary schools, and higher learning institutions. There are ample opportunities to further strengthen agricultural education and professionalisation efforts. Collaborative initiatives between educational institutions, government agencies, and private sector partners can enhance the relevance and effectiveness of agricultural training programmes. By integrating hands-on learning experiences, internships, and apprenticeships into curricula, institutions can better prepare agriculture workers for the challenges in agriculture. Key strategic interventions Strengthen the TVET and agriculture provision for professional farming. The TVET system must be strengthened to substantially change practices in the sector and educate the next generation of farmers and value chain actors at a substantially larger scale. TVET is relevant for both production and post-harvest levels, and climate smart agriculture will be a recurrent theme. Ensure that courses are designed to entice both young women and men to participate. Strengthen higher-level institutions and especially the STEM field toward capacities needed in the Agri-food systems. Developing specialized courses in food technology, agriculture, and veterinary practices to incorporate emerging technologies in the training and build a robust food cluster. Strengthen internship programs. Establishing collaborative programs with industry stakeholders to facilitate internships, thereby bridging the gap between education and practical industry demands. Promote entrepreneurship programs. Launching initiatives that nurture entrepreneurial skills among the youth, aiding them in establishing businesses that can transform the Agri-food systems. Entrepreneurship could be in everything from commercial farming, post-harvest provision, extension services, value addition, or other activities in the Agri-food systems. At least 50% of participants shall be women. Ensure inclusivity in the educational system. A focal point remains on ensuring inclusivity, emphasizing programs that actively involve youth, especially young women. Additionally, there is a strong inclination towards promoting sustainable, climate-smart practices through education, ensuring the coming generations are stewards of environmentally friendly agricultural practices. Outcome 3.2: Strengthened agriculture de-risking for resilience Despite the Agriculture sector’s high contribution to Rwanda’s GDP, employment, poverty reduction, and most importantly food and nutrition security, it remains the least-served sector when it comes to financing. The Central bank data on loan disbursement across different economic sectors per types of financial services providers indicate that the share of financing that goes to the agriculture sector stands at six percent and the total loan portfolio to agriculture stands at 3.7% of total formal credit150. The commercial banks’ agriculture loan portfolio stands at 5% of the total loans, Microfinance institutions (other than Umurenge SACCOs) at 7% and Umurenge-based SACCOs at 26%. However, in terms of importance, commercial banks contributed up to 80%, Microfinance institutions other than SACCOs 8% and Umurenge SACCOs 12%. 149 NISR, Statistical Yearbook 2023 150 BNR 1 2 3 4 5 80 Output 3.2.1: Access to agriculture finance increased Situation In 2023, only 6% of commercial credit was allocated to agriculture, despite the sector contributing about 25% of GDP and employing over two-thirds of the population. While this marks an improvement from the 1-2% before the PSTA 4 period, it still falls short of the NST-1 target of 10%. Challenges stem from both the demand side (subsistence farming, production risks, market risks, lack of access to credit, outdated agronomic practices, etc.) and the supply side (high transaction costs, lack of suitable financial products, and limited capacity of financial institutions). A major barrier is the lack of data on farmers, which hinders access to financing. In sectors like tea and coffee, where extensive profiling has been conducted, this has notably eased access to finance. The public sector has played a significant role in funding agriculture with investments in irrigation, terracing, and cold-chain facilities, and this will continue in PSTA 5, with a greater focus on maximizing investment impact by strengthening the implementers. Key strategic interventions Establish the agriculture de-risking facility. Aimed at bridging the gap between farmers and financial markets by minimizing finance market risks and stimulating both demand and supply sides. This includes providing credit guarantees, technical assistance, and grants to support infrastructure development, market linkages and value chain advancements, focusing on systemic impact projects that ensure gender inclusion and youth opportunities. Incentivize the development of tailored agri-finance products. Encourage agricultural finance innovation through evidence-based approaches and partnerships, developing new financial models to address market failures and leveraging patient capital and blended finance. Special focus will be on products for smallholder farmers, women, and persons with disabilities, as they have lower access to finance than other demographics.151. Strengthen governance and coordination for agri-finance reforms. Improve the coordination among agriculture finance stakeholders, establish working groups, and roll out infrastructure improvements to facilitate access to financial services in rural areas, ensuring an enabling environment for agriculture finance. Build farmer profiles and strengthen digital payment systems. Accelerate the creation of farmer registries in priority value chains to enhance finance access, implement interoperable payment systems to provide a comprehensive view of smallholder financial transactions and develop alternative collateral options. Create awareness and strengthen financial services education. Launch campaigns to increase awareness of financial services, addressing cultural norms affecting gender-based access, and enhancing the capacity of financial service providers to develop seasonally adjusted products. Output 3.2.2: Agriculture Insurance scheme strengthened Situation Rwandan agriculture is largely rain-fed, making it vulnerable to climate-related risks, especially droughts. Climate change has heightened the risks of droughts, floods, pests, and diseases that affect crops and livestock. Parts of Rwanda have seen unusual climate patterns, such as rainfall variability 151 NISR, Finscope 2021 1 2 3 4 5 81 and extreme events, including heavy rains in the North and West and droughts in the East and South of the country. In response, the government launched the National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS) in 2019 under the initiative "Tekana Urishingiwe Muhinzi Mworozi." This program aims to reduce agricultural risks through insurance, offering indemnity-based livestock products and area-yield index insurance for crops. The government subsidizes 40% of premiums, while farmers cover 60%. The scheme currently covers eight crops and three types of livestock, with aquaculture insurance under development. Since its launch, the NAIS has significantly mitigated risks from weather and disease. In four years, the scheme has facilitated over RWF 2 billion in agricultural loans, using insurance as collateral. Insurance companies have collected over RWF 4 billion in premiums, and RWF 2.5 billion has been paid out in compensation to farmers for losses. These successes were largely enabled by nearly RWF 1.7 billion in government subsidies. However, uptake of the insurance scheme has been lower than expected. Barriers include high promotional costs, limited market knowledge, insurer reluctance, and issues with contract fulfilment and payouts. The insurance mainly covers input costs but does not address the opportunity cost of lost harvests or income. Farmers are compensated for direct damage but not for the potential income lost from selling their harvest, making the insurance less attractive. A key challenge is the lack of detailed data on farmers, limiting access to financial services. However, in sectors like tea and coffee, where farmers have been profiled through detailed data collection, access to finance has improved. Profiling has helped farmers in these sectors secure loans and financial products. The public sector has been crucial in financing agricultural infrastructure. During PSTA-2, 3, and 4, significant investments were made in irrigation, terracing, cold-chain facilities, and more. These investments, alongside grants to private sector implementers, have contributed to the sector’s growth. For PSTA 5, there is a focus on ensuring strong implementers to maximize the impact of these investments. Despite challenges, Rwanda’s agriculture sector has grown, with agro-export value rising and major projects improving irrigation, commercialization, and access to finance and insurance. Moving forward, ensuring the efficiency of these initiatives and a comprehensive strategy to strengthen agricultural stability, productivity, and sustainability is essential. Key strategic interventions Stimulate demand for agri-insurance. Enhancing uptake through clear guidelines, mobilization efforts, enforcement, and continued subsidies. Make agriculture insurance compulsory for all large scale crops and livestock farmers to create a critical mass and allow for risk spreading. In return, the Government will subsidize output coverage products and improve accountability and transparency, ensuring farmers receive their contracts promptly after premium payments, and monitoring the fulfilment of these contracts by insurance companies to build trust with farmers. Currently access rates for women and youth are respectively 0.7% and 0.8% versus 1.1% for men and non-youth 152 . Therefore, consideration will be given to meeting the specific needs of these groups. Stimulate the development of more attractive and profit-oriented agriculture insurance products. The government subsidy will shift towards output-based insurance products. Moreover, to increase the uptake of insurance the government will improve access to data and farmer profiles for more efficient delivery of insurance products. Outcome 3.3: Digitized Agri-food Systems Over the past few decades, the world has seen the emergence of new digital technologies with transformational potential at all levels in the Agri-food systems. For example, farm operations can be greatly improved with modern technologies such as precision farming, smart irrigation, smart livestock monitoring for optimized feed and water management, digital extension services, and many others. At the level of value chains, digital payment solutions can improve access to markets and finance, as 152 NISR, Agriculture Household Survey 2020 1 2 82 digital traceability systems can enhance supply chain transparency to reduce food losses and provide reliable information for consumers, and other stakeholders. Finally, at the planning and governance level, digital technologies such as remote sensing and artificial intelligence can automate data collection and simplify workflows for rapid decision-making. Rwanda has established a robust institutional framework to support digitization of agriculture and harness the full potential of these technologies clustered under the name “4th Industrial Revolution (4IR)” 153. The ICT4RAG (ICT for Rwanda Agriculture- 2016-2020 and the National Digital Agriculture Strategy 2023-2030 (NDAS) set the digital agenda for agriculture coupled with key national policies such as the revised National Broadband Policy (2022) prioritizes 4G/5G access, critical for data-driven solutions. The Responsible National AI policy promotes ethical Artificial Intelligence (AI) development in agriculture, backed by ongoing use cases. The Startups Act and Rwanda Innovation Strategy (2023) incentivize and support Agritech growth. Finally, the creation of digitalization divisions within key Ministries has proved a game-changer for accelerating digital transformation and creating practical digital solutions. Nevertheless, Rwanda's agriculture grapples with digital hurdles which are to be addressed in the PSTA 5 period. Challenges include limited rural internet, low farmer literacy rates, inaccurate data, affordability issues, limited institutional capacity, and fragmented tools. The following subsections define an agenda for digitising the agriculture sector at farm level, in value chains, and in institutions. The agenda here established how the government can facilitate the private sector and civil society to drive the transformation through the adequate frameworks to expand rural connectivity, bridge the digital divide, enhance data quality, promote financial inclusion, standardise tools, build sustainable solutions, and create awareness through education. Output 3.3.1: Affordable digital technologies developed Situation Rwanda has made significant progress in digital infrastructure with rising internet and mobile phone use (30.5% internet penetration and 11.7 million mobile phone users)154. Especially recent surges in the use of mobile money and smartphone usage have created opportunities across the sector to leverage data and traceability to provide products and services. However, a digital divide persists between urban and rural areas (79.6% mobile phone ownership in Kigali vs. 35% in the Southern Province)155, which is a barrier to fully unlock the potential of digitalization in propelling agricultural development. Despite advancements in digital agriculture initiatives like the Agriculture Monitoring Information System (AMIS), E-soko, and Irembo, there are still challenges like data limitations, affordability, and unequal access due to disparities across location, age groups, and gender. The benefits of digitalization will only be fully reaped when a critical mass of farmers have access to digital applications. Key strategic interventions Prioritize Device access and connectivity. Expand access to affordable digital devices for farmers and stakeholders through subsidies, partnerships, and tax incentives156 and Increase advocacy for investment in expanding reliable internet access across rural areas. Reduce Costs for Digital Adoption. Partner with private companies and others to subsidize access and transaction fees for essential agricultural services, driving wider use157. Establish a Digital Public Infrastructure for Agriculture. Build the Agricultural Management 153 DE4A (Digital Economy for Africa Initiative). Digital Transformation Strategy for Africa [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2023 Dec 12]. Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/all-africa-digital-transformation 154 Simon Kemp, 2023, Digital Insights for Rwanda. 155168 NISR. Statistical Yearbook 2022. 2022. Available from: http://www.statistics.gov.rw 156 AFDB. Africa Digital Transformation Action Plan (2022-2026). 157 GSMA. The Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2023. 1 2 3 https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/all-africa-digital-transformation http://www.statistics.gov.rw/ 83 Information System (AMIS) as a comprehensive registry for farmers, farms, crops, and livestock. This foundation will empower innovation and unlock data-driven decision-making through analytics. Integrate AMIS with Esoko, mobile payments, and e-commerce platforms to connect farmers directly to markets, improve transparency, and enhance food security. Output 3.3.2: Data governance enhanced Situation Rwanda's data infrastructure offers potential for informed agricultural decisions, but challenges persist158. Data collection suffers due to a lack of incentives159, resource limitations at the local level160, and slow traditional methods. Investing in capacity building, incentives, and technological solutions can overcome these hurdles, empowering data teams and unlocking actionable insights for policy and investment. Key strategic interventions Implement a robust data strategy and governance framework. This framework will prioritize data privacy, compliance, and quality, while enabling data sharing across stakeholders. National and local data stewards will oversee collection, quality, and capacity building in data technologies. Build a scalable data network with incentives. Motivate data collection with performance-based rewards, leverage private and youth partnerships to expand outreach, guaranteeing data quality through clear processed and robust data governance161. Modernize data collection with technology. Utilize drones, satellite imagery, IoT, and crowdsourcing to gather data faster and cheaper162. Invest in robust data storage, analysis, and AI tools to unlock big data's potential for nationwide agricultural insights to inform policy making163. Output 3.3.3: Digital innovation in agriculture value chains promoted Situation Rwanda boasts a thriving ecosystem for digital innovation with plenty of start-up initiatives and several start-up incubators. However, there is a hurdle to reach young innovators toward agri-tech resources and initiatives are concentrated in cities. Moreover, low agricultural commercialization limits the financial viability of many agri-tech solutions, and early-stage agri-tech startups struggle to reach the market. However, opportunities exist. Development of Infrastructure coupled with decentralization of resources, and mentorship programs, can address rural access gaps. 158 FAO. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021: Digitalization and Big Data in Agriculture. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021. FAO; 2021. 159 World Bank. Data Driven Agriculture Toolkit. 2023. 160 FAO. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021: Digitalization and Big Data in Agriculture. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021. FAO; 2021. 161 World Bank. Data Driven Agriculture Toolkit. 2023. 162 FAO. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021: Digitalization and Big Data in Agriculture. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021. FAO; 2021. 163 World Bank. Data Driven Agriculture Toolkit. 2023. 1 3 2 84 Key strategic interventions Launch Agritech innovation pipeline. Establish a dedicated program to onboard and nurture Agritech talent. This pipeline will leverage existing initiatives, GoR collaborations (MINAGRI-MINICT), and innovation hubs to ensure quality assurance. Verified innovations will be promoted to farmers, boosting confidence and adoption. Cultivate Agritech Champions. Expand incubation programs, mentorship, and hackathons to attract and empower young innovators. Delivering tailored training for Agritech entrepreneurs will enable success at all development stages. Unlock AMIS data for Innovation. Promoting the AMIS API for local and international innovators/researchers will empower them to create data-driven Agritech solutions for farmers. Output 3.3.4: Digital competencies developed Situation Rapid digitalization in Rwandan agriculture offers great potential, but challenges remain. Smallholder farmers, especially women and the elderly, face barriers in digital literacy and device access. For example, women are 21% less likely than men to own a mobile device. While 77% of young Rwandans (aged 15-24) use the internet, only 27% of those aged 55-64 do. Moreover, there’s a widening gap between the required and existing government capacity to leverage emerging technologies for agricultural transformation. This highlights the need for capacity building within government ranks to adopt digital tools effectively. Ensuring access to technology and digital literacy for smallholder farmers, particularly women and the elderly, is crucial for maximizing the potential of digital tools. The government must bridge these gaps to make agriculture more inclusive and sustainable, fostering growth through innovation and capacity development. Key strategic interventions Strengthen delivery of digital literacy through age-appropriate programs and innovations. Leverage existing networks like digital ambassadors, farmer promoters, village elders with smartphones, etc. and partner with private sector initiatives to develop context-specific, accessible digital literacy modules. Leveraging innovations to strengthen sustainable delivery of digital literacy and advisories like solar powered tablets and other private sector advisory models (e.g., kuza.one) will contribute to energy efficient solutions. Strengthen Regional and Community Agritech ICT Centres. Partnering with existing rural ICT centres to equip them with computers, internet, and Agri-digital officers, will empower farmers with information access nationwide. Explore alternative solutions like affordable tablets or public access points to technology such as digital villages. Develop structured programmes for sustained capacity development (leadership and emerging technologies, other). Equip government staff with digital skills to identify, prioritize, and adopt relevant emerging technologies skills in each period such as AI, satellites, machine learning and blockchain. 1 2 3 1 2 3 85 Output 3.3.5: Sustainable business models for digital systems and platforms developed Situation MINAGRI has launched a robust suite of digital agriculture platforms with over 10 operational or near completion platforms. Examples include the Management Information System (MIS), Esoko, National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS), National Strategic Reserve System (NSGR), Smart Kungahara (SKS), Smart Nkunganire (SNS), the livestock harmonization project, FaMIS, the Seed value chain digitization system, the Smart Agric System-Satellite Enabled system (MVP stage), the AI-enabled voice chatbot for Agri-advisory (implementation), inspection and certification system, and Rwanda Soil Information Service (RWASIS). However, the long-term sustainability of these systems presents challenges, particularly regarding funding, data updates, and technical expertise for ongoing maintenance164. The current reliance on pre qualified service providers for system development and handover often incurs significant costs and requires technical capacity for maintenance and updates. Development partner contributions and technical assistance can help offset initial costs, but ongoing maintenance, data collection, and upgrades require innovative solutions. Additionally, timely data collection is crucial for many systems, particularly those using machine learning or requiring output validation, further complicating sustainability. A compounding factor is the widening gap between the required and existing government capacity to leverage emerging technologies for transformation. Although the government has invested significantly in digital capacity during the PSTA 4 period, rapid advancement in available technologies poses challenges in keeping pace and unlocking the full potential. While public investment plays a crucial role in enabling digital agriculture transformation,165 recognizing the limitations of relying solely on government funding is vital. To achieve sustainable growth, diversifying financing models through strategic partnerships, private sector engagement, and innovative approaches is crucial166. Key strategic interventions Diversify funding for digital agri-tech. Secure long-term financial viability by exploring hybrid funding models (public-private partnerships, user fees) and innovative data monetization (anonymized data for research/services). This, combined with open-source solutions and subsidized technologies, will ensure the sustainability of digital agriculture platforms. Mobilise resources for digital agriculture growth. Develop a comprehensive resource mobilization plan which maps funding sources (grants, blended finance) to stakeholder needs and gaps. Leverage blended finance tools and incentivize private sector participation (co-financing, risk-sharing) to attract investment and accelerate digital agriculture growth. Additionally, establish dedicated funds to support local innovators and early-stage solutions. 164 World Bank. Data Driven Agriculture Toolkit. 2023. 165 FAO. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021: Digitalization and Big Data in Agriculture. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021. FAO; 2021. 166 World Bank. Data Driven Agriculture Toolkit. 2023. 1 2 86 Output 3.3.6: Digitalization networking strengthened Situation While establishing a digital office within MINAGRI was a positive step, challenges remain in achieving effective coordination across the sector. Collaboration between the office, other directorates, and external Agri-food systems stakeholders is critical, yet remains limited. This fragmentation leads to missed opportunities and duplicated efforts 167 . Additionally, digital delivery is often overlooked in monitoring and evaluation frameworks. Early and ongoing collaboration with the digital office throughout project lifecycles is essential to optimize efficiency, leverage expertise, and achieve successful digital agriculture integration. Key strategic interventions Establish a cross-cutting digital agriculture working group. Led by the PS office and comprising representatives from across the Agri-food systems stakeholders (MINAGRI, RAB, NAEB, private sector, farmer organizations, development partners) and building on the National Digital Agriculture Strategy (NDAS), this group will drive coordinated planning, prioritization, and implementation of digital agriculture strategies. It will oversee information sharing and ensure the strategy’s alignment with evolving sector priorities, facilitating smooth execution. Establish a national digital agriculture task force. The task force will translate the strategy into concrete action with a core focus on driving implementation by leading data governance efforts, exploring resource mobilization options, and fostering collaboration across the entire Agri-food systems. Outcome 3.4: Strengthened Agri-food systems planning and coordination The Government of Rwanda (GoR) will continue the path toward becoming a market facilitator rather than a market actor. This outcome underscores the importance of institutional capacity and synergized coordination to deliver results in Rwanda's Agri-food systems with a strengthened focus in MINAGRI on evidence-based policy, programme designs, resource mobilization, regulations, Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL), and knowledge management. Meanwhile, implementing agencies will focus on supporting farmers, market actors, and consumers to thrive in the Agri-food systems. To deliver on this agenda, there is a need for strengthening institutional capacity and the enabling environment to mobilise the necessary resources and capacities from various actors. Therefore Agri food systems planning, coordination, improved policies and regulations, enhanced institutional capacity are key areas of focus under this outcome. Output 3.4.1: Capacity for planning and knowledge management enhanced Situation The transformational food systems agenda outlined in this strategy entails introducing programmes that involve a wide range of stakeholders. Initiatives such as the de-risking facility, CAES, and the AgriHubs are new approaches and involve collaboration with Agri-food systems stakeholders, and to realize the full impact potential and mitigating potential risks of such programs requires strong designs from the onset and adapted approaches during implementation. Furthermore, PSTA 5 requires substantial resource mobilisation from a wide range of stakeholders. Currently, Rwanda allocates 7.5% of its public expenditure to agriculture, falling short of the 10% target in the Malabo declaration168. This indicates a need to increase the capacity for mobilising public, private, and civil society resources, as well as increasing efficiency and effectiveness. Therefore, the new agenda requires increased 167 World Bank. Data Driven Agriculture Toolkit. 2023. 168 4th Biennial CAADP Report, 2023. Page 114. 1 2 about:blank 87 capacity in MINAGRI and its agencies for planning and adaptive management of programmes with catalytic impact across the Agri-food systems. Key strategic interventions Strengthen public sector capacity to design and oversee the implementation of impactful programs. PSTA 5 will intensify the programmatic approach to deliver on the strategic agenda. This requires a project tasked with designing impactful programmes and mobilising the required resources. The project will design programmes and public private partnerships with feasibility studies, cost-benefit assessments, and environmental and social impact assessments, and accountability. This will be achieved through the existing public sector staff, which will be complemented by recruitment of new staff where needed. Strengthen MEL and knowledge management capacity for adaptive management. The strategy and programmes will have a robust yet flexible MEL framework at several levels. Firstly, the strategy and key programmes require base-lines, mid-term reviews, and end-lines at the impact and outcome levels to guide broad, strategic priorities. Secondly, there will be ongoing reports capturing progress on output indicators as well as qualitative assessments capturing lessons learned during implementation and guiding the way forward. Thirdly, there will be ongoing reports on real-time data tracking and analysis in key areas such as food prices, disaster events, and others. Fourthly, ad-hoc research projects will be commissioned in partnership with research institutions, to provide strategic guidance for policy and strategy formulation. Finally, MINAGRI will ensure knowledge sharing through events and dissemination across programmes. Establish a public sector capacity building programme to underpin the transformation. This programme aims to endow them with the requisite skills for effective engagement and facilitation considering the new strategy, including navigating public-private interfaces, and contributing to systemic agricultural improvements. The programme will include various models of capacity building such as formal degrees in relevant fields, non-degrees training, on-the-job capacity building, and coaching. Establish PSTA 5 coordination program (to be called Programme 5). The agriculture sector is required to have a dedicated basket fund for coordination and capacity building of the staff and key players, supporting the transformational agenda of PSTA 5. The fund will help to secure coordination operations such as office expenses, training costs, convenings, post-project management, and other indirect costs. The fund will replace Programme 4 which was a support fund for PSTA 4 implementation and is therefore required to be upgraded to this PSTA edition. This basket will be directly linked to the existing projects and flagship programs to be developed under the PSTA 5 and its funding will come from partners as direct contribution or indirect costs (overheads) on the flagship programs and depending on the flexibility of the partners. This will be clarified and implemented through financial and technical agreements that will be signed between heads of institutions in the agricultural sector and partners for Agri-food systems transformation. Output 3.4.2: Agri-food systems coordination and value chains developed Situation The Agri-food systems objective requires collaboration between sectors and joint planning. Recognizing the interconnectedness of sectors MINAGRI will foster collaboration with other sectors and partners critical to achieving PSTA 5 objectives. The agriculture sector working group will need to be redesigned to reflect the food systems approach, and there will be increased coordination with other institutions that are critical in the Agri-food systems, such as MINECOFIN, MINAFFET, MINICT, MINALOC, MOH, MOE, MINEDUC, MINICOM, RDB, and MININFRA etc. Moreover, in response to gaps identified in the MTR, there is a need for intensified efforts toward public private dialogue as well as strengthening coordination with civil society, research institutions, and development partners in critical areas such as research and extension services provision and other, with a common agenda to strengthen value chains. 1 2 3 4 88 Key strategic interventions Establish cross-institutional platforms to strengthen Agri-food systems coordination. A food systems secretariat will be established to coordinate interventions and joint planning across sectors. Secondly, the CAES secretariat will be established to implement the CAES agenda linking research outputs to extension providers, value chain actors, and funders (see Outcome 3.1.2) Prepare packaged business plans for value chain development. De-risking investment through business models that assess the profitability of various value chains. This will inform the government, farmers, and investors about business viability. The plans will consider youth and create access for women. Revitalize and establish new National Agriculture VCPs to bolster private sector engagement. It will serve as a nexus for collaborative development across the agriculture value chains. It will promote the development of investment plans and defined contributions from both the public and private sectors. Establish transparent governance structures for PPDs. Provide PPD guidelines to foster stakeholder engagement by respecting stakeholders’ representation (youth and women), agenda-setting for efficient PPDs meetings, and follow-up mechanisms for meeting resolutions. Establish and strengthen linkages with regional value chains. Diversify export opportunities into broader markets through MINAFFET & PSF (example: access the global marketplace for Rwandan products). Output 3.4.3: Policy and regulatory reform for an enabling environment reviewed Situation The Government of Rwanda (GoR) remains steadfast in its commitment to foster a conducive environment for the transformation of agriculture and enhancing resilient Agri-food systems. The PSTA 4 Mid-Term Review (MTR) provides detailed insights into Rwanda's progress in creating an enabling environment for agricultural transformation as outlined in the PSTA 4 framework. Specific achievements include significant advancements in climate resilience through the development of terraces and irrigation systems, the establishment of local seed companies to reduce seed import dependency, and improvements in food security and nutrition. For instance, the area under irrigation increased by 21.3% during the 2018-2021 period, and 53 local seed companies were initiated, contributing to the availability of locally produced improved seeds169188. Such a transformational agenda of the Rwandan Agri-food systems, including the agriculture sector, will necessitate a reconfiguration of institutional structures to support these enhanced roles efficiently and effectively. During PSTA 4, MINAGRI has worked synergistically with stakeholders to support investment in the sector (e.g. access to subsidies and access to finance) and facilitate access to services (e.g. access to land tenure for agriculture endeavour). However, in the rapidly evolving Agri-food system space, regulatory frameworks often struggle to keep pace with innovation adoption, market trends, and the changing needs of farmers, consumers, and businesses. This can lead to outdated, excessive, or inefficient regulations that hinder growth, innovation, and sustainability in the sector. Hence, the ministry has been partnering with different stakeholders to firm up its system. A continuous regulatory reform review is essential to identify regulatory bottlenecks, to align policies with current best practices, and new development, and to ensure that the legal environment reinforces rather than impedes agricultural development, and that policies and regulations are informed by evidence. 169188 Mid-Term Review PSTA- 4, pages 31-32 1 2 3 4 5 89 Key strategic interventions Institutionalize a structured review Process for regulatory frameworks. MINAGRI will regularly review and monitor the performance of its regulatory frameworks and take necessary steps and actions to deliver in line with Agri-food systems such as enabling the Business of Agriculture framework. In addition, considering the situation, the Ministry could identify new policies, laws, and regulations to bring on board, considering regulatory synergies and trade-offs. Build an alliance with Agri-food Systems stakeholders. To ensure evidence-based policies, the government will regularly consult research institutions and other stakeholders. Also, the profile of stakeholders will be widened to include Agri-food systems actors operating outside the agriculture sector during consultations. Establish new sector working group platforms geared toward Agri-food systems approaches. Output 3.4.4: Institutional reforms for effective implementation enhanced Situation Modern agriculture faces a variety of complex and evolving challenges, including climate change, market volatility, and the need for sustainable practices. These issues demand robust, agile institutional frameworks that can support transformative efforts across the agriculture sector. The agricultural landscape is further complicated by cross-cutting issues that span multiple sectors, such as water management, land use, rural development, and climate resilience. These challenges cannot be addressed within a narrow, sectoral approach but require integrated efforts across various areas, which is why a shift towards thinking in terms of Agri-food systems is necessary. Unfortunately, many existing institutional frameworks are outdated and fail to meet the demands of today’s dynamic Agri-food systems. Current structures often do not effectively integrate new technologies, data-driven decision-making, and innovative management practices. As a result, they are poorly equipped to respond to emerging trends, embrace innovation, and promote sustainable growth or resilience in the sector. This misalignment undermines the sector’s capacity to adapt, scale, and meet the demands of modern agriculture Key strategic interventions Conduct institutional review. As the PSTA 5 moves to implementation, an institutional review will be conducted to assess key institutional capacities and weaknesses against the new priorities in PSTA 5. Specific focus will be given with respect to capacities like resource mobilisation, programme design, MEL and knowledge management, digitalization, value chain development, climate resilience, legal and regulatory capacity, nutrition, and others. Conduct institutional arrangements to perform in the Agri-food Systems space. Based on the institutional and capacities gap analysis as well as responding to the pressing need and mandate of the Agri-food systems necessary institutional adjustments and arrangements will be carried out. Incorporate technology and innovation into modernization efforts. Digitalization of the Agri-food systems will play a significant role through the introduction of interactive dashboards for efficient executive decision-making and performance tracking as well as onboarding of Data analysts to provide deeper analysis of agriculture data, especially for food security projection and agriculture transformation planning. 1 2 1 2 3 90 Financing and Economic Appraisal 91 5. Financing and economic appraisal 5.1 Costing methodology The costing of the strategy was done after defining targets for activities and outputs. Unit costs were obtained from reviews of existing and previous programmes and literature, and through workshops with relevant experts in MINAGRI and relevant agencies. The cost modelling was done with COSTAB software. The main assumptions include a national inflation rate of 4.2% per annum, an international inflation rate of 3% per annum, and an exchange rate of 1294 RWF/USD. Price and implementation contingencies were applied to certain expenditure categories. Unit costs are provided inclusive of all taxes, including import duties, value-added tax (18% VAT), and other direct and indirect taxes. VAT applies to most expenditure categories except for training and grants. Local purchases mainly consist of training and study services, developments, and technical assistance. Price increase provisions are based on the 4.2% annual inflation rate as of March 2024, though it is noted that this consumer price index may not perfectly reflect the specific purchases for the strategy. 5.2 Financing requirements Table 2 provides a comprehensive overview of the financing requirements to fully fund the strategy and generate the desired impact. The total cost is estimated at 6,406.5 billion RWF, with 77.6% (4,974.4 billion RWF) in local currency and 23.8% (1,665.3 billion RWF) in foreign currency. The share of foreign exchange costs would be mainly explained by specific needs related to international technical assistance, equipment, materials necessary for rehabilitation or infrastructure installation work and other expenses related to operations, study trips, training abroad. Priority Area I: Modernization of Agriculture and Animal Resources Production for resilient food systems takes the lion’s share of the budget (58.6% of the total budget), whereas Priority Area II: Inclusive markets and post-harvest management for sustainable Agri-food systems takes 17.5%; and Priority Area III: Strengthening Food Systems Enablers for Effective and Efficient delivery takes 23.9%. Additionally, 11.3% of the total budget is allocated for contingencies, including both physical (0.8%) and price (10.5%) contingencies, to ensure flexibility in adapting to unforeseen circumstances and price fluctuations. 92 Table 2: Financing requirements by component Domestic Currency (Billion) Share of total Foreign currency (US $ Million) Total strategy costs 6,406.5 100% 4,950.8 1. Modernization of Agriculture and Animal Resources Production for Climate Resilient Agri-food Systems 3,753.51 58.6% 2,900.7 1.1. Modernized Crop Production and Productivity 2,430.82 37.9% 1,878.50 1. 2. Modernized Animal Resources Production and Productivity 1,322.69 20.6% 1,022.20 2. Inclusive markets and post-harvest management for sustainable Agri-food Systems 1,121.17 17.5% 866.4 2.1. Boosted Agriculture Exports 144.45 2.3% 111.6 2.2. Strengthened market linkages and post harvest infrastructures 234.84 3.6% 181.5 2.3. Improved Food Security and Nutrition 741.88 11.6% 573.3 3. Strengthening Agri-food Systems enablers for effective and efficient delivery 1,531.78 23.9% 1,183.7 3.1. Strengthened research and technology transfer for agri-food systems transformation 860.64 13.5% 665.1 3.2. Strengthened agriculture de-risking for resilience 405.59 6.3% 313.4 3.3. Digitized Agri-food Systems 217.14 3.4% 167.8 3.4. Strengthened Agri-food Systems planning and coordination 48.41 0.8% 37.4 The investment is divided between public and private sector contributions, with the public sector investing RWF 3,600.0 billion (56.2%) and the private sector expected to contribute RWF 2,806.5 billion (43.8%). The budget demonstrates a gradual increase in annual investment, starting at 1,071.6 billion RWF in 2024/25 and reaching 1,435.9 billion RWF by 2028/29. This escalation reflects the ambitious nature of the strategy and the increasing capacity for implementation over time. A key feature of the financial plan is the consistent and substantial private sector leveraging, which remains steady at 40 45% each year. This underscores the strategy's emphasis on public-private partnerships and highlights the government's commitment to creating an enabling environment that attracts and sustains private investment in the Agri-food system. The balanced approach between public and private funding is designed to ensure the sustainability and effectiveness of the strategy's implementation, aligning with Rwanda's vision for a market-driven agricultural transformation. 5.3 Macro-economic Impact The analysis presented in the following figures is underpinned by the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model, which is a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).170 This model has been specifically calibrated to 170 It should be noted that a CGE baseline year can usually not be calibrated to match observed data in the base year. The model approximates reality rather than replicating it. 93 Rwanda's economic context using an updated 2022 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), ensuring its relevance and accuracy. The RIAPA model allows for a comprehensive assessment of PSTA 5's potential impacts across various sectors of the Rwandan economy, capturing both direct and indirect effects of the proposed interventions. The analysis considered four scenarios for public spending: 1. PSTA 5 - Full funding scenario. This scenario assumes full implementation of PSTA 5 with complete financial backing171. 2. PSTA 5 - Partial funding scenario. This represents a situation where PSTA 5 is implemented but with limited financial resources – 84% of the planned public investment to be implemented. 3. "Business-as-Usual" scenario. This scenario assumes a continuation of current policies and public investment levels growing by the same level annually as under PSTA 4 (11% per year on average). 4. "Do nothing" scenario. This represents a baseline where no public interventions or investments are made in the Agri-food systems. Figure 1: Share of the planned public funds raised for PSTA 5 The following sections present RIAPA model projections of key macro-economic variables under the four different public spending scenarios. As presented in Figure 2, the divergence in agricultural GDP growth across scenarios is striking. The "Do nothing" scenario shows minimal growth, hovering around 3% annually with a declining trend. The "Business-as-Usual" scenario indicates slightly higher growth at 4.7% on average. However, even with partial funding, PSTA 5 is projected to significantly boost growth to 7.5% annually on average. The full funding scenario demonstrates the transformative potential of PSTA 5, with growth rates reaching 8.2% by 2028/29. Compared to the baseline, agriculture GDP will be 4.1 times larger by the end of the strategy under the fully funded scenario, versus 2.35 times larger under the business-as-usual scenario. Figure 3: Annual Agriculture GDP growth 171 It should be noted that by “fully funded” we refer to investments that can be modelled in the current RIAPA model framework. 0% 40% 84% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding Share of public funds allocated 94 Export projections vary significantly across scenarios (see Figure 4 below). The "Do nothing" scenario shows stagnant export values, while "Business-as-Usual" indicates modest growth. PSTA 5, even with partial funding, is expected to substantially increase exports from USD 875 million in 2023 to USD 2 billion by 2028/29. Full funding could push this figure to over USD 2.2 bn, highlighting the strategy's potential to transform Rwanda's agricultural export sector. Figure 4: Annual Exports Projection (USD million) The projection on the trend of workers in primary agriculture captures the complex dynamics of structural transformation, spurred by increased agricultural productivity. As agricultural productivity improves, fewer workers are needed in primary production due to several factors namely the mechanization and technology adoption that allow farms to cultivate larger areas with less labour. 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 7.4% 7.0% 7.7% 7.5% 7.6% 8.5% 7.8% 8.4% 8.5% 8.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 813 830 838 829 795 1,050 1,127 1,207 1,291 1,379 1,170 1,337 1,550 1,770 2,013 1,212 1,412 1,656 1,923 2,221 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 95 Furthermore, economies of scale, particularly in AgriHubs, enable more efficient production with fewer workers. Modern farming methods require fewer but more skilled labourers, while increased capital intensity in equipment and infrastructure reduces the relative importance of manual labour. Meanwhile, higher agricultural productivity creates jobs in adjacent off-farm sectors, such as trade/logistics, inputs provision, various services, processing, and others – especially if a larger proportion of the production are traded. These changes collectively drive the shift from primary agriculture to off-farm employment within the Agri-food system. The model (which does not account for potential additional “pull-factors” in the urban sectors), shows a gradual transition toward the 2050 goal of reaching 15% employment in agriculture. The “do-nothing” and “business-as-usual” scenarios see the agriculture employment share increase, as the effect of a growing working-age population exceeds the effect of productivity gains. In contrast, the partial and fully funded PSTA 5 scenarios see gradual decline but would need to be accompanied by off-farm growth to reach the Vision 2050 target (Figure 5). Figure 5: Share of workers in primary agriculture PSTA 5 implementation is expected to contribute in creating jobs in the Agri-food systems sectors. This has been projected outside of the CGE modelling framework under the simplifying assumption that it grows proportionally to agriculture output. With this assumption, increased agricultural production produces an equivalent demand for labour in trade, logistics, processing etc. Under this assumption there will be about 614,000 workers in the off-farm Agri-food systems compared to about 400,000 today. 68.4% 68.9% 69.3% 69.6% 69.9% 67.1% 67.3% 67.4% 67.5% 67.4%66.7% 66.5% 66.1% 65.7% 65.2%66.6% 66.2% 65.7% 65.2% 64.7% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 68.0% 69.0% 70.0% 71.0% 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 96 Figure 6: Off-farm job in the Agri-food Systems Rwanda’s Food Balance Sheet172 estimates the minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER) to be at 1741 kcal/person per day considering the age and gender composition of the population. As PSTA 5 interventions are simulated, RIAPA captures how changes in agricultural production, incomes, and food prices affect the average food availability and the distribution of food consumption. For instance, increased agricultural productivity may lead to higher food availability and lower food prices, potentially reducing undernourishment. Similarly, income growth in agricultural households may improve their food access. The fully and partially funded PSTA 5 see drastic reductions in the proportion of Rwandan accessing less than the minimum required intake – from about 30% to 18-19% (Figure 7). In contrast, the “do nothing” scenario will produce a modest decline, whereas the “business-as-usual” scenario will bring the proportion of undernourished Rwandans to 23% by the end of PSTA 5. 172 NISR, Food Balance Sheet 2022 408 421 435 449 463 476 413 432 452 474 496 519 413 444 475 512 550 592 413 448 483 524 568 614 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Th ou sa nd s "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 97 Figure 7: Prevalence of undernourishment (% with access to less than 1,741 kcal per day) Again, there are significant differences between the PSTA 5 scenarios and the “business as usual” scenarios in terms of projected food availability, calculated in terms of dietary energy to be produced (i.e production converted into kilocalories). To obtain projections for dietary energy production, the same four scenarios have been modelled under additional assumptions on land-use in a partial equilibrium model. 173 The model incorporates assumptions on land use and yield gains in AgriHubs, consolidated land and non-consolidated, and Production is then calculated by multiplying projected yields by harvested areas. The model also incorporates projections for animal resource production use in the RIAPA model. Again, there are significant differences between the PSTA 5 scenarios and the “business as usual” scenarios in terms of projected food availability (Figure 8). 173 Vanguard Economics, 2024, PSTA 5 Target Projection Model – Technical Note 31.8 30.3 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.2 30.6 28.4 27.4 26.5 25.4 24.3 23.4 30.6 28.4 26.8 24.7 22.7 21.1 19.2 30.6 28.4 26.5 24.2 22.1 20.2 18.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.0 29.0 31.0 33.0 Baseline (2023) 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 98 Figure 8: Annual dietary energy production (bn kcal) Considering the need for food self-sufficiency, a Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) has been calculated. The SSR measures the extent to which domestic production can meet total food supply needs. It is calculated as: SSR = 100 × (Production) / (Production + Imports - Exports – stock change). Imports have been modelled as the residual of the other variables in the Food balance Sheet: Imports = Production – stock change – exports – consumption loss- processing – other uses. Hence, the model incorporates further assumptions on food utilization, to project the future food balance sheet variables: Food consumption is assumed to grow in proportion to agricultural GDP growth, reflecting both increased availability and improved economic access to food, the population projections, and a modifier on food availability to reflect a target SSR. Post-harvest losses, assumed to remain a constant proportion of production for each crop. Processed food quantities, exports, and seeds for planting, all assumed to maintain constant shares of production. Animal feed demand, projected to grow in line with animal-related GDP growth. The model projects that only the fully funded scenario will allow for complete food self-sufficiency by the end of PSTA 5 (Figure 9). Meanwhile, “do nothing” will not allow for improvement from the 79% baseline. 11,440 11,597 11,773 11,928 12,087 11,636 11,918 12,227 12,524 12,83311,816 12,324 13,000 13,687 14,463 11,971 12,812 13,826 14,985 16,326 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Bi lli on s "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 99 Figure 9: Self-sufficiency ratio in dietary energy The same model projects a gradual increase in food consumption in the fully and partially funded PSTA 5 scenarios. In contrast, the “business as usual” sees a slight decline in consumption per capita, whereas the decline is more significant under “do nothing”. This reflects the need for increased food production in the future as the population grows. It should be noted that there is a trade off between increasing food consumption and increasing the SSR – increasing consumption decreases the SSR all else equal. Figure 10: Dietary energy consumption (kcal/capita/day) Protein consumption follows a similar pattern to dietary energy. However, the current production levels are relatively low compared to the need, so it will take more substantial and sustained increments in household incomes for longer to reach the desired levels of protein consumption of about 84 gr/person/day. 79% 79% 79% 79% 79% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85%81% 83% 85% 87% 90% 82% 86% 90% 95% 100% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 2,116 2,090 2,076 2,065 2,049 2,107 2,073 2,052 2,032 2,008 2,130 2,131 2,133 2,135 2,137 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding Optimal Minimum 100 Figure 11: Protein consumption (gr/capita/day) 61.2 60.5 60.1 59.8 59.3 61.0 60.0 59.4 58.8 58.1 61.6 61.7 61.7 61.8 61.9 61.8 61.7 61.9 62.1 62.3 56.0 57.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 62.0 63.0 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 "Do nothing" "Business-as-Usual" PSTA 5 - Partial funding PSTA 5 - full funding 101 Monitoring, evaluation, and learning plan 102 6. Monitoring, evaluation, and learning plan The Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) Plan is instrumental effective implementation of the strategy. It provides a comprehensive approach to tracking progress, assessing outcomes, and promoting evidence-based decision-making, while aligning with the Government of Rwanda's (GoR) planning cycle and incorporating systems-based strategy considerations. By aligning with the GoR's planning cycle, incorporating Joint Sector Reviews, and adopting a systems-based approach, this framework ensures that PSTA 5 remains responsive to the complex dynamics of Rwanda's Agri-food systems. It supports continuous improvement and adaptive management, increasing the likelihood of sustainable, positive impacts across the entire agricultural system in Rwanda. The emphasis on systems thinking and its integration with national planning processes position PSTA 5 to contribute meaningfully to transformative change in Rwanda's agriculture, while remaining flexible and responsive to emerging challenges and opportunities within the broader socio-economic context. 6.1 Reporting activities Start-up activities. There will be a PSTA 4 endline evaluation, which will serve as an overall baseline for PSTA 5 to complement the and update the baseline values in the logframe. Furthermore, outcome baselines for major programmes will be conducted where relevant and the Management Information System will be upgraded to track the indicators of the PSTA 5 log-frame. Mid-term review and an endline evaluation to provide in-depth analyses of program performance and inform priorities for PSTA 6. Thematic studies, policy briefs, and data quality assessment reports are produced as needed to support decision-making at both the program and national levels. Joint Sector Reviews and Annual Reports (JSRs). The reporting structure is designed to complement the GoR's planning cycle. The JSRs serve as a platform for all stakeholders to review sector performance, discuss challenges, and agree on priorities for the coming year. They also serve as bi-annual progress reports to provide regular updates on implementation progress feeding into Annual Reports for the relevant institutions. Rapid Assessments of key interventions will be conducted regularly to provide quick insights on specific issues or emerging challenges and provide guidance of adaptive measures. Strategic reviews and in-depth research pieces will be conducted in collaboration with partners to offer in-depth analysis of PSTA 5 implementation and strategic direction. These reviews will assess not only progress towards objectives but also how PSTA 5 is influencing the broader Agri-food systems in Rwanda. Integration, Adaptive Management, and Systems Thinking. The insights gained from rapid assessments, strategic reviews, and JSRs will be systematically integrated into the overall MEL system and decision-making processes, using systems thinking approach. This integration will consider not only direct program outcomes but also broader system effects and feedback loops within the agricultural sector. 6.2 Establishment of a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) system MEL Systems for Systems-Based Strategy. To support effective monitoring, evaluation, and learning for a systems-based strategy, several key systems will be implemented. The Management Information System (MIS) will serve as a centralized platform for data storage, management, and analysis, capable of capturing complex interactions within the agricultural system. A GIS-based mapping system will enable spatial analysis and visualization of PSTA 5 interventions and outcomes, helping to identify geographic patterns and system-wide effects. Furthermore, a robust knowledge management system 103 will include a repository of lessons learned, case studies, and communities of practice, with a focus on understanding and documenting system dynamics. Regular meetings and workshops will facilitate the discussion of findings with program managers and high-level decision-makers, encouraging adaptive management based on a holistic understanding of the agricultural system. A real-time monitoring dashboard will provide an interactive interface with up-to-date information on key performance indicators, including systems-level metrics that track changes in the broader agricultural ecosystem. This system's approach will help identify unintended consequences, synergies, and leverage points within the agricultural sector. Capacity requirements for systems thinking. The successful implementation of this MEL framework requires specific capacities, including expertise in systems thinking and analysis. A dedicated MEL unit will be established with clearly defined roles and responsibilities, including specialists in systems analysis. Regular training will be conducted to enhance skills in systems mapping, causal loop diagramming, and interpreting complex system interactions. This capacity building will extend to implementing partners to ensure a shared understanding of the systems approach across PSTA 5. 104 ANNEX 1: RESULTS FRAMEWORK Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 IMPACT LEVEL INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION Agriculture GDP growth % GDP National Account 2.0 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.3 6.1 Agriculture exports revenue (USD Million) USD Million NAEB Annual Report 875 932 1,016 1,109 1,214 1,540 Off-farm jobs in the agri food system Number off-farm jobs in Agri-food system Labour force Survey and SAM 400,000 440,000 484,000 532,400 585,640 614,00 Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index Index value IFPRI 72 - 85 - 100 IMPROVED FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY Percentage food secure HH (CARI indicator) % CFSVA 79.4 (2021) 83 - - 88 Stunting rate % CFSVA 32.4 (2021) 30 26 22 18 15 Average Household Dietary Diversity Score Score CFSVA 5.5 5.94 - - 8 Food self-sufficiency ratio % Food Balance Sheet 79.6 (2022) 81 85 90 95 100 PRIORITY AREA ONE: MODERNIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND ANIMAL RESOURCES PRODUCTION FOR CLIMATE RESILIENT AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS OUTCOME 1.1: MODERNIZED CROP PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY Quantity of production Maize MT SAS 508,492 553,953 599,587 665,701 751,440 874,337 Paddy rice MT SAS 133,628 145,714 194,117 240,073 284,576 293,178 Wheat MT SAS 16,656 18,322 20,154 22,169 24,386 26,825 Irish Potatoes MT SAS 781,032 952,518 1,047,341 1,144,425 1,305,360 1,498,545 Cassava MT SAS 1,345,379 1,441,644 1,513,683 1,567,734 1,611,554 1,653,924 Beans (Bush and Climbing) MT SAS 441,406 482,480 522,408 565,009 609,472 662,115 Soybeans MT SAS 29,059 43,817 48,199 53,019 58,320 64,152 Sweet Potatoes MT SAS 1,321,080 1,350,383 1,551,398 1,622,870 1,654,891 1,669,632 Cooking Banana MT SAS 1,049,838 1,124,865 1,199,892 1,274,919 1,349,946 1,424,973 Peas MT SAS 12,117 13,329 30,412 31,193 31,992 32,807 Vegetables Onions MT SAS 14,050 15,174 16,388 17,699 19,115 20,644 Cabbage MT SAS 31,214 33,711 36,408 39,321 42,466 45,864 Carrot MT SAS 24,147 26,079 28,165 30,418 32,852 35,480 105 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Egg plant MT SAS 49,745 53,725 58,023 62,664 67,678 73,092 Garlic MT SAS 2,798 3,022 3,264 3,525 3,807 4,111 French beans MT SAS 1,700 4,268 4,742 5,269 5,855 6,505 Pepper MT SAS 6,945 17,203 22,937 25,486 28,318 31,464 Fruits Tree tomato MT SAS 3,383 3,654 3,946 4,262 4,603 4,971 Pineapple MT SAS 12,399 13,391 14,462 15,619 16,869 18,218 Avocado MT SAS 1,293 6,151 7,485 9,264 11,673 14,975 Passion fruit MT SAS 2,523 3,923 4,322 4,762 5,247 5,783 Mango MT SAS 1,111 1,200 1,296 1,400 1,512 1,632 Productivity for the priority food crops Maize MT/Ha SAS 1.7 1.87 2.06 2.26 2.49 2.74 Irish Potato MT/Ha SAS 8.2 9.2 10.1 11.4 13.1 14.7 Rice MT/Ha SAS 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 Wheat MT/Ha SAS 1.2 1.29 1.3 1.32 1.34 1.35 Beans MT/Ha SAS 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.1 Soybean MT/Ha SAS 0.4 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Cassava MT/Ha SAS 13.5 15 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.9 Cooking banana MT/ha SAS 14.2 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.7 Output 1.1.1. Agricultural land management and production models improved Agriculture land use master plan Number (report) MINAGRI Reports 1 Area under Food Basket Sites s Ha MINAGRI Reports - 35,717 81,175 146,115 227,291 324,702 Area under AgriHubs Ha (cumulative) MINAGRI Reports - 1,008 4,032 5,600 - Farmers supported for household’s resilience Percent MINAGRI Reports 31 51 56 60 64 69 Output 1.1.3. Urban and peri-urban farming promoted Technologies demonstrated in the horticulture of centre of excellences Number MINAGRI Reports 10 12 14 16 18 20 Output 1.1.4. Climate-smart agriculture practices improved Area under Agro-forestry Ha MINAGRI Reports 13,569 17,640 22,932 29,811 38,754 50,381 106 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Area under Radical terraces (Cumulative) Ha MINAGRI Reports 142,318 146,518 150,768 155,768 161,268 167,268 Area under Progressive terraces (Cumulative) Ha MINAGRI Reports 1,032,282 1,044,282 1,057,282 1,071,282 1,086,282 1,102,282 Area under Shrubs/savannah restoration Ha MINAGRI Reports 20,656 27,418 34,180 40,943 47,705 54,467 Area under Conservation Agriculture Ha MINAGRI Reports 1,173 2,000 3,500 5,000 10,000 Area under Greenhouses Ha MINAGRI Reports 55 55 66 79 95 114 Area under banana/coffee multi-cropping Ha MINAGRI Reports 15,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Farmers accessing weather information Percent MINAGRI Reports 20 30 45 55 65 Output 1.1.5. Irrigation and water resource management improved Total area under irrigation (Cumulative) Ha MINAGRI Reports 71,585 76,686 85,769 101,884 118,229 132,171 a) Marshland Ha MINAGRI Reports 37,273 37,573 37,873 39,311 40,311 42,473 b) Hillside irrigation Ha MINAGRI Reports 9,439 13,640 17,490 27,275 39,735 48,667 c)Small-Scale Irrigation Technology Ha MINAGRI Reports 24,873 25,473 30,406 35,298 38,183 41,031 Existing irrigated schemes maintained and rehabilitated Ha MINAGRI Reports 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 IWUOs operational Number MINAGRI Reports 118 25 30 40 50 55 Output 1.1.6. Access to agricultural Inputs for climate-resilient production improved Farm services centres established Number MINAGRI Annual Report 6 8 10 15 20 Farmers using improved seeds (Large scale) Percent NIST, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 85.7 90.0 92.0 94.0 95.0 100 Farmers using improved seeds (Small scale) Percent NIST, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 35.9 40 45 47 48 50 Improved quality seeds used (per crop type) MT MINAGRI Reports 7,575.6 7,954 8,351 8,769 9,207 9,668 107 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Farmers using climate resilient seed varieties Percent MINAGRI Reports 33 36 40 44 48 53 Inorganic fertilizers used MT MINAGRI Report 96,372.9 101,191 106,250 111,563 117,141 132,440 Inorganic fertilizers application per ha Kg/ha MINAGRI Report 70.3 72.2 75.8 79.6 83.6 94.6 Lime used MT NIST, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 14,226.5 15,649 17,213 18,935 20,828 22,911 Farmers using inorganic fertilizer (Large scale) Percent NIST, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 86 90 92.5 93 94.5 95 Farmers using inorganic fertilizer (Small scale) Percent NIST, Seasonal Agriculture Survey 54.9 57.5 60.3 62.8 64.5 66.5 Bio-fertilizers produced MT MINAGRI Reports 0 2,000 2500 3000 3500 4500 Output 1.1.7: Plant Health Management enhanced Pest/disease surveillance conducted Numbers done each year MINAGRI Report 2 2 2 2 2 Farmers using pest and disease surveillance tools Percent MINAGRI Report 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Farmers (male and female) using IPM practices Percent MINAGRI Report 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Output 1.1.8. Mechanization and labour-saving technologies promoted Operational Mechanization Centre of excellence Number MINAGRI Report 0 0 1 1 1 1 Agriculture land under mechanisation Ha MINAGRI Report 81,711 84,000 90,000 92,000 95,000 100,000 OUTCOME 1.2: MODERNIZED ANIMAL RESOURCES PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY Milk MT MINAGRI Report 1,061,301 1,114,366 1,167,431 1,220,496 1,273,561 1,323,561 Meat MT MINAGRI Report 197,778 207,667 217,556 227,445 237,334 247,223 Beef MT MINAGRI Report 66,268 72,957 76,431 79,905 83,379 86,853 Goat meat MT MINAGRI Report 34,853 34,903 36,565 38,227 39,889 41,551 Sheep meat MT MINAGRI Report 8,818 9,708 10,170 10,633 11,095 11,557 108 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Poultry meat MT MINAGRI Report 53,319 55,398 58,036 60,674 63,312 65,950 Pork meat MT MINAGRI Report 25,839 25,144 26,342 27,539 28,736 29,934 Rabbit meat MT MINAGRI Report 8,681 9,557 10,012 10,467 10,923 11,378 Honey MT MINAGRI Report 7,250 8,315 10,495 12,675 14,855 17,035 Eggs MT MINAGRI Report 17,344 18,211 19,078 19,946 20,813 21,680 Fish MT MINAGRI Report 46,495 54,000 59,000 64,500 71,000 77,700 of which from fisheries MT MINAGRI Report 39,000 41,000 41,000 41,500 42,000 42,700 of which from aquaculture MT MINAGRI Report 7,495 13,000 18,000 23,000 29,000 35,000 Output 1.2.1. Animal husbandry and infrastructure in animal hubs improved Animal resources production hubs (meat, dairy, eggs & fish) Number (cumulative) MINAGRI Report 30 35 40 43 45 50 Boreholes constructed (including solar powered) Number MINAGRI Report 49 20 25 25 25 30 Valley dams rehabilitated Number MINAGRI Report 25 5 5 5 5 5 Livestock sheds constructed Number MINAGRI Report 2,200 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 Output 1.2.2. Sustainable animal breeding established Functional centre of excellence for animal genetics Number MINAGRI report 0 0 1 1 1 1 Animal breeding centres operational Number MINAGRI report 15 18 21 23 24 24 Certified poultry hatcheries established Number MINAGRI report 5 5 5 6 6 7 Certified breeders (cattle, pig, rabbit) Number MINAGRI report 0 207 508 810 1,111 1,413 Liquid Nitrogen plants operational Number MINAGRI report 2 2 3 3 4 5 Queen-rearing centres for bees established Number MINAGRI report 0 0 1 2 3 4 109 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Skilled Technicians in bovine artificial Insemination technique and embryo transfer trained (disaggregated by Gender/age) Number MINAGRI report 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,050 Cows inseminated Number MINAGRI report 109,209 115,277 130,313 147,311 166,525 188,245 Pigs artificially inseminated Number MINAGRI report 19,860 21,846 24,031 26,434 29,077 31,985 Skilled technicians in Pig Artificial Insemination trained (disaggregated by Gender/age) Number MINAGRI report 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 Output 1.2.3. Access to animal feed improved Area planted with improved forages (including climate resilient forage seeds) Ha MINAGRI report 11,718 12,000 12,500 13,000 14,000 15,300 Support forage seed multipliers (including climate smart seed varieties) Number MINAGRI report 96 126 156 186 216 246 Access to Machinery used in fodder harvesting and processing Number MINAGRI report 13 50 100 150 200 250 Local animal feeds production MT MINAGRI report 77,023 89,481 103,955 120,770 140,305 163,00 Output 1.2.4. Animal health systems strengthened National epidemic-surveillance report produced Number MINAGRI report 2 2 2 2 2 2 Veterinary clinics established Number MINAGRI report 16 96 176 256 336 416 Private Veterinary Officers (Doctors) involved in the implementation of Veterinary Sanitary Mandate Number MINAGRI report 522 677 696 716 736 755 Private Veterinary Officers (Technicians) involved in the implementation of Veterinary Sanitary Mandate Number MINAGRI report 3,804 13,539 13,927 14,318 14,712 15,109 Cattle vaccinated Number MINAGRI report 986,815 999,150 1,006,552 1,021,354 1,031,222 1,088,245 Goats vaccinated Number MINAGRI report 997,818 1,415,223 1,824,757 2,085,436 2,085,436 2,215,776 Sheep vaccinated Number MINAGRI report 220,107 337,926 442,224 505,398 505,398 536,986 Pigs vaccinated Number MINAGRI report 250,000 727,752 808,614 875,998 1,145,536 1,583,535 Rabbits vaccinated Number MINAGRI report - 38,650 85,225 271,799 376,980 483,587 Poultry vaccinated Number MINAGRI report 6,000,000 3,174,788 3,999,632 4,899,549 5,881,059 6,565,307 110 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Cattle registered Percent MINAGRI report 80 85 90 100 100 Pigs registered Percent MINAGRI report 50 60 70 80 90 Output 1.2.5. Fisheries and aquaculture developed National Aquaculture Research Centre operationalized Number MINAGRI report 1 1 1 1 Aquaparks operational Number MINAGRI report 10 20 30 40 50 Fingerlings produced for aquaculture Number MINAGRI report 16,000,000 20,000,000 26,000,000 36,000,000 46,000,000 58,000,000 Fish Hatchery constructed through private investment Number MINAGRI report 13 14 15 16 17 18 Output 1.2.6: Beekeeping developed Appropriate reserves for beekeeping established Number MINAGRI report 2 1 1 1 1 1 Commercial apiary (beekeeping) farms promoted Number MINAGRI report 2 2 2 2 2 PRIORITY AREA II: INCLUSIVE MARKETS AND POST-HARVEST MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS OUTCOME 2.1: BOOSTED AGRICULTURE EXPORTS Export revenues increased 1. Coffee USD dollars MINAGRI report 78,712,092 85,009,059 91,809,784 99,154,567 107,086,932 115,563,887 2. Tea USD dollars MINAGRI report 107,768,322 119,106,935 130,445,548 141,784,161 153,122,774 164,461,387 3. Pyrethrum and Essential Oil (a) Pyrethrum USD dollars MINAGRI report 8,063,749 8,547,574 9,060,428 9,604,054 10,1801,897 10,791,115 (b) Essential oils USD dollars MINAGRI report 3,007,087 3,037,158 3,340,873 3,674,961 4,042,457 4,446,703 4. Fruits (a) Avocado USD dollars MINAGRI report 6,342,472 7,666,879 8,991,286 10,315,693 11,640,099 12,964,506 111 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 (b) Passion Fruits USD dollars MINAGRI report 245,712 422,828 465,110 511,621 562,784 619,062 5. Vegetables (a) Chili USD dollars MINAGRI report 6,080,949 11,689,040 16,651,364 23,720,333 33,790,276 48,135,192 (b) French beans USD dollars MINAGRI report 2,850,684 3,935,725 4,624,477 5,433,760 6,384,668 7,501,985 Flowers USD dollars MINAGRI report 2,163,055 2,594,666 3,114,799 3,738,759 4,485,311 5,382,373 6. Animal and livestock products (a) Eggs USD dollars MINAGRI report 2,205,544 13,648,990 25,092,436 36,535,882 47,979,329 59,422,775 (b) Fish USD dollars MINAGRI report 46,653,031 117,617,771 188,582,511 259,547,251 330,511,992 401,476,732 (c) Dairy products USD dollars MINAGRI report 12,921,346 28,265,621 43,609,895 58,954,170 74,298,445 89,642,719 Output 2.1.1: Export crops expanded Area under Export crops Coffee Ha MINAGRI report 42,229 42,729 43,229 43,729 44,229 44,729 Tea Ha MINAGRI report 31,498 33,165 34,832 36,499 38,166 39,833 Pyrethrum Ha MINAGRI report 3,070 3,225 3,380 3,525 3,680 3,845 Essential oils Ha MINAGRI report 66 388 711 1,033 1,355 1,678 French beans Ha MINAGRI report 149 164 180 198 218 240 Chili Ha MINAGRI report 533 760 1,082 1,542 2,196 3,129 Avocado Ha MINAGRI report 517 540 619 707 794 881 112 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Passion fruit Ha MINAGRI report 34 35 39 43 47 52 Macadamia Ha MINAGRI report 605 659 707 791 844 933 Flowers Ha MINAGRI report 65 78 87 95 104 113 Export crops production Coffee MT MINAGRI Report 20,046.9 21,386.9 23,328 25,920 28,800 32,000 Tea MT MINAGRI Report 39,008.9 41,500 42,719 47,466 52,740 58,600 Pyrethrum MT MINAGRI Report 35 38 41 45 50 55 Vegetables MT MINAGRI Report 51,689 67,197 87,356 113,563 147,632 191,921 Fruits MT MINAGRI Report 21,953 26,344 31,612 37,935 45,522 54,626 Flowers MT MINAGRI Report 413 508 625 769 945 1,163 Output 2.1.2: Rwandan agri-exports de-commoditized Tea sold under direct agreement Percent MINAGRI report 24% 26% 30% 35% 40% 45% Supply agreements in high-value markets for priority commodities Number MINAGRI report 2 5 5 5 5 5 Agri-exports facilities for value-addition and diversification Number MINAGRI report 1 3 3 2 1 OUTCOME 2.2: STRENGTHENED MARKET LINKAGES AND POST-HARVEST INFRASTRUCTURES Employed population in market-oriented agriculture (gender and age disaggregated) Percent Labour Force Survey 43.5% 45% 50% 55% 60% 70% Household reporting active membership of a cooperative Percent Agriculture Household Survey 13% (2020) 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% Food crop gross value added sold Percent Seasonal Agriculture Survey 35% 38% 41% 44% 47% 50% 113 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Reduction of post-harvest losses in priority staple crops Percent MINAGRI report 13.8% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% Annual growth in agro-processing gross value added Percent NISR, National Accounts 8.8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Output 2.2.1: Organisation models of farmers and value chain actors improved Cooperatives supported in AgriHubs Number MINAGRI report 30 30 60 80 80 80 Women or youth-led cooperatives supported Number MINAGRI report 15 15 30 40 40 40 Output 2.2.2: Post-harvest handling for reduced losses improved Food crop storage facilities constructed (silos and warehouses) Number (Cumulative) MINAGRI report 530 535 540 545 550 555 Animal feeds factories constructed (including fish feeds industry) Number MINAGRI report 13 2 1 1 1 Cold storage facilities established and upgraded (Cumulative) Number MINAGRI report 90 95 100 105 110 120 New MCCs constructed and operationalized (Cumulative) Number MINAGRI report 134 136 154 188 191 193 New MCPs constructed and operationalized (Cumulative) Number MINAGRI report 150 154 186 222 226 230 Landing sites (Fish) Number MINAGRI report 1 5 5 5 3 3 Fish Drying flakes (small fish) Number MINAGRI report 4 4 4 3 3 1 Smoking areas (fish) MINAGRI report 27 1 1 1 Mobile dryers for cereals (cumulative) Number MINAGRI report 48 56 76 96 116 141 Drying shelters (Maize and beans) (cumulative) Number MINAGRI report 944 969 1,024 1,089 1,149 1,199 Drying grounds (Rice and wheat) (Cumulative) Number MINAGRI report 585 595 635 687 735 765 114 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Collection centres (Irish potato, cassava, vegetables, honey and eggs etc.) (cumulative) Number MINAGRI report 148 160 165 170 175 180 Output 2.2.3: Agriculture commodity safety and quality Increased Testing facilities for safety and quality parameters upgraded Number MINAGRI report 0 1 2 1 Traceability system established Number MINAGRI report 0 1 Output 2.2.4: Value addition increased Value addition facilities supported Number MINAGRI report 10 26 31 36 36 41 Output 2.2.5: Trade infrastructures improved Wholesale markets established (Kigali Wholesale Market) established Number MINAGRI report 0 1 Animal and Livestock markets operational Number MINAGRI report 10 11 12 13 14 15 Need Assessments for infrastructures (e.g. feeder roads, electricity, water) Number MINAGRI report 1 1 1 1 1 OUTCOME 2.3: IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION Average household dietary diversity score Score CFSVA 5.5 (2021) 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Animal products consumption per capita a. Meat Kg/Person/Year MINAGRI Report 14.2 15.6 17.2 18.9 20.8 22.9 b. Milk l/person/year MINAGRI Report 78.0 85.8 94.4 103.8 114.2 125.6 c. Fish Kg/Person/Year MINAGRI Report 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.4 d. Eggs Kg/Person/Year MINAGRI Report 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 Output 2.3.1: Food security and nutrition improved Biofortified seeds produced (per crop type) a. Beans MT MINAGRI Report 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 115 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 b. sweet potato Cuttings MINAGRI Report 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 c. Cassava Cuttings MINAGRI Report 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 e. Potato MT MINAGRI Report 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Household with kitchen garden Percent MINAGRI Report 36% 36% 40% 42% 44% 46% Schools with school garden Percent MINAGRI Report 69% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Traceability system of fortified agricultural products Number MINAGRI Report 1 National dietary guidelines and nutrition sensitive agriculture guidelines disseminated through campaigns Number (Campaign per year) MINAGRI Report 2 2 2 2 2 2 Output 2.3.2: Households supported in Animal resources production and Nutrition-Sensitive crop production (at least 30% distributed to women headed households) Cows in the Girinka program distributed Cows MINAGRI Report 467,898 25,000 28,000 30,000 33,000 35,000 Vegetable seeds for kitchen garden distributed MT MINAGRI Report 1 1 1 1 1 Goats’ distributed Number MINAGRI Report 3,416 18,630 20,436 22,500 25,785 30,890 Pigs’ distributed Number MINAGRI Report 2,662 12,500 14,680 17,320 18,500 20,700 Sheep distributed Number MINAGRI Report 2,687 7,425 9,800 11,908 13,769 15,740 Fruits trees distributed Number MINAGRI Report 440,000 580,000 730,000 930,000 1,150,000 1,400,000 Rabbit distributed Number MINAGRI Report 1,500 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Poultry distributed Number MINAGRI Report 94,643 143,720 145,600 147,890 150,000 160,000 Output 2.3.3: Food stability and mitigating related shocks ensured Private-Led Commodity Reserves Strengthened Operational MINAGRI Report 0 1 1 1 1 1 Food Monitoring and Price Projection Reports produced Reports MINAGRI Report 0 4 4 4 4 4 Quantity of grains stored as strategic reserves MT MINAGRI Report 25,312 31,678 32,150 35,000 37,500 43,000 116 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Maize MT MINAGRI Report 15,478.7 16,478 16,000 17,500 18,500 20,000 Beans MT MINAGRI Report 9,832.8 11,200 11,500 12,000 12,500 15,000 Rice MT MINAGRI Report 0 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 5,000 Soya MT MINAGRI Report 0 1,500 1,650 2,000 2,500 3,000 National storage capacity of food crops (cumulative) MT MINAGRI Report 318,025 330,025 345,025 365,025 390,025 420,025 Grain storage capacity (silos) for animal feeds MT MINAGRI Report 0 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 PRIORITY AREA III: STRENGTHENING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS ENABLERS FOR EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT DELIVERY OUTCOME 3.1: STRENGTHENED RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER FOR AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION Farmers adoption rate of modern and climate resilient agricultural practices Percent MINAGRI Report 50% 70% Farmers (male & female) accessing extension (including climate smart) services through the CAES Number MINAGRI Report 1,300,000 1,951,311 2,087,902 2,234,055 2,390,439 2,557,770 Coverage of agricultural extension services Percent MINAGRI Report 35 51 56 60 64 69 Output 3.1.1: Demand-driven research enhanced New market-driven animal breeds introduced Number MINAGRI Report 5 9 10 11 11 Crop varieties developed (climate resilient, disease resistant) total for all crops Number MINAGRI Report 77 19 5 24 9 13 Research stations (laboratory, equipment) upgraded Number MINAGRI Report 0 2 2 2 2 2 Green houses facilities established Number MINAGRI Report 29 2 2 2 2 2 Crop Suitability Maps developed Number MINAGRI Report 1 0 1 0 1 0 117 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Biotechnology products (genetically modified products), protocols and laws developed. Number MINAGRI Report 0 0 1 1 1 1 Plant genetic resources conserved Number MINAGRI Report 1,642 230 230 230 230 230 Forage genetic resources conserved Number MINAGRI Report 146 20 20 20 20 20 Local animal genetic resources characterized and conserved Number MINAGRI Report 404 60 60 60 60 60 Post-harvest technologies developed Number MINAGRI Report TBD 1 1 2 1 1 Output 3.1.2: Customised agriculture extension system enhanced Master trainers trained on specific value chain and their segments Number MINAGRI Report 250 250 250 250 250 250 Extension agents (such as FFS facilitators, FPs) trained on the delivery of new extension packages and facilitated (disaggregated by gender/age) Number MINAGRI Report 16,654 17,000 17,000 17,500 18,500 21,620 L-FFS groups established by L-FFS Facilitators Number MINAGRI Report 400 600 600 600 600 600 FFS of fish farmers established Number MINAGRI Report 30 30 30 30 30 30 Market actors trained in aquaculture and fisheries Number MINAGRI Report 100 100 100 100 100 100 Output 3.1.3: Technical capacity, education, and skills developed Youth and professional farmers trained on technical courses by education institutions and other relevant specialised institutions Number (cumulative) MINEDUC report 250 450 650 850 1,050 1,250 Long term training in Agri-food systems provided Number MINEDUC report 8 8 8 8 8 On-job specialised and professional short courses in the Agri-food systems provided Number MINAGRI report 50 50 50 50 50 OUTCOME 3.2: STRENGTHENED AGRICULTURE DE-RISKING FOR RESILIENCE Credit to agriculture sector as percentage of total loans Percent BNR, Monetary Statements 6 6 7 8 9 10 118 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Farmers accessing credit from banks or other formal financial services providers/sources (gender and age disaggregated data) Percent NISR, Finscope 16% (2021) 16% 19% 22% 27% 32% Crop farmers with agriculture insurance Percent NISR, Agriculture Household Survey 1% (2020) 5.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.5% 6.8% Animal farmers with agriculture insurance Percent NISR, Agriculture Household Survey 1% (2020) 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% Output 3.2.1: Access to agriculture finance increased De-risking facility established and operationalized Number MINAGRI reports 1 1 1 1 1 1 Output 3.2.2: Agriculture insurance scheme strengthened Guidelines for insurance products developed and operationalize Number MINAGRI Report 1 1 1 1 1 1 Crop insured Rice Ha MINAGRI Report 23,696 23,826 23,926 24,026 24,126 24,226 Maize Ha MINAGRI Report 7,932.37 9,519 11,105 12,692 14,278 15,865 Irish Potatoes Ha MINAGRI Report 1075.6 2,662 4,249 5,835 7,421 9,008 Soya bean Ha MINAGRI Report 222.6 1,809 3,396 4,982 6,568 8,155 Beans Ha MINAGRI Report 215.4 1,802 3,388 4,975 6,561 8,148 Cassava Ha MINAGRI Report 0 1,586 3,173 4,759 6,346 7,932 119 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Chili Ha MINAGRI Report 102.27 340 578 816 1,054 1,292 French beans Ha MINAGRI Report 25. 263 501 739 977 1,215 Livestock Insured Cattle Number MINAGRI Report 48,962 49,962 51,462 53,462 55,962 58,962 Pig Number MINAGRI Report 7,300 27,300 52,300 82,300 117,300 157,300 Poultry Number MINAGRI Report 274,506 294,506 324,506 364,506 414,506 474,506 Fishponds/farms Number MINAGRI Report 800 5,200 9,900 16,100 24,650 35,000 Rabbits access to insurance scheme Number MINAGRI Report 196,846 426,499 541,326 629,907 1,104,634 1,189,606 Professionals (public & Private) trained on agriculture insurance Number MINAGRI Report 4,054 4,729 5,405 6,080 6,756 OUTCOME 3.3: DIGITISED AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS Farmers with access to a cell phone Percent Finscope report 85% (2021) 87% 89% 91% 93% 95% Farmers using mobile payment Percent Finscope report 55% 60% 63% 66% 69% 72% Output 3.3.1: Affordable digital technologies developed Farmers supported to own or use devices though telco collaboration Number MINAGRI report 50,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 500,000 Farmers registered in AMIS Number MINAGRI report 100,000 500,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 Output 3.3.2: Data governance enhanced Data strategy and governance framework in place and operationalized Number (framework) MINAGRI report 1 1 1 1 1 120 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Relevant data stored in the expanded and incentivized data collection network Percent MINAGRI report 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Output 3.3.3: Digital innovation in agriculture value chains promoted Agri-tech services supported Number MINAGRI report 5 10 10 20 30 Output 3.3.4: Digital competencies developed Farmers trained in digital literacy or using specific services Number MINAGRI report 20,000 50,000 100,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 Output 3.3.5: Sustainable business models for digital systems and platforms developed Investors for digital platforms mobilised Number MINAGRI report 1 2 4 6 8 Output 3.3.6: Digitalization networking strengthened Digital taskforce in place and operationalized Number MINAGRI report 1 1 1 1 1 OUTCOME 3.4: STRENGTHENED AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS PLANNING AND COORDINATION Budget execution rate Percent MINAGRI Report 90% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Foreign Direct Investment in Agriculture and agro-processing USD million MINAGRI Report 23.2 30 50 70 100 150 Enabling the Business of Agriculture score Score World bank 41.43 43 47 50 55 60 Output 3.4.1: Capacity for planning and knowledge management enhanced Professional short course training Number Programmes designed and funded Number MINAGRI report 6 2 2 2 2 Innovative and impactful Projects designed under PSTA 5 Number (Projects) MINAGRI report 30 35 35 35 40 40 Output 3.4.2: Agri-food systems coordination and value chains developed Business plans for value chain development packaged for entrepreneurs Number MINAGRI Report 8 8 8 8 8 Public private partnerships in agro processing/food systems support functions operational (inputs, feed, packaging, biofortified products etc.) Number MINAGRI Report 2 3 4 5 6 7 Values chain-based platforms established and operationalized Number MINAGRI Report 7 8 10 12 15 15 121 Indicator Unit Source Baseline (2023) 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 Food commodity board established Number MINAGRI Report 1 Output 3.4.3: Policy and regulatory reform for an enabling environment reviewed Coordination meetings (Agriculture Sector and Sub-Sector Working Group Meetings) Number MINAGRI Report 4 12 12 12 12 12 Join sector review meeting Number MINAGRI Report 2 2 2 2 2 2 Policy and Regulatory Reforms Regulations/report MINAGRI Report 2 2 2 2 2 Technical regulation framework developed for agricultural products safety and quality Number 1 Output 3.4.4: Institutional reforms for effective implementation enhanced Institutional reform for PSTA 5 implementation conducted Number MINAGRI Report 1 National CAES Secretariat established Number MINAGRI Report 1 Rwanda Forum for Agricultural extension and Advisory Service professionals Established Number MINAGRI Report 3 3 3 3 Food Systems Secretariat Number MINAGRI Report 1 1 1 1 1 122 ANNEX 2: OPERATIONAL PLAN No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 PRIORITY AREA ONE: MODERNIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND ANIMAL RESOURCES PRODUCTION FOR CLIMATE -RESILIENT AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS OUTCOME 1.1 MODERNIZED CROP PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY Output 1.1.1 Agricultural land management and production models improved 1.1.1.1 Agriculture Land-use Masterplan Develop Agriculture Land-use Masterplan (LUMP) Masterplan 1 Produce regulations and guidelines for land lease and contract farming Guidelines & regulations 1 2 Conduct consultative meetings with various stakeholders Number 12 Organize validation session of LUMP Number 1 1.1.1.2 Operationalization of Food Basket Sites (FOBASI) Food Basket Sites promoted and operationalized Ha 35,717 45,458 64,940 81,176 97,411 Establish guidelines for Food Basket Sites development Number 1 1 Organize mobilization meeting with farmers and leaders Number 9 9 9 9 9 Capacity building of cooperatives members in the Food Basket Sites (FOBASI) Number 7,000 7,000 4,680 3,510 2,340 Support FOBASI Cooperatives with professional managers Number 30 30 30 30 30 Train extension agents under FOBASI Number 150 150 150 150 150 1.1.1.3 AgriHubs establishment Promote and operationalize agri-Hubs Ha 1,008 3,024 1,568 Develop guidelines for agri-hub Guidelines 1 Develop Agri-hub business plan Number 5 8 11 16 20 Output 1.1.2. Small-holder farmers supported for household resilience 123 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 1.1.2.1 Support smallholders to create Food Basket Sites Facilitate access to land tenure and leasing arrangements Number (Outreach staff) 100 100 100 100 100 Support smallholder farmers with improved seeds (maize) Kg 323 343 402 432 482 Support smallholder farmers with cuttings (cassava, sweet potatoes) Cuttings 700,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 Support smallholder farmers with fertilisers MT 8,500 9,500 10,000 12,000 15,000 Output 1.1.3. Urban and peri-urban farming promoted 1.1.3.1 Promotion of vertical farming (Kitchen garden, aquaponic, hydroponics,) Support the extension of the Horticulture center of excellence Number (report) 1 1 1 1 1 Establish demonstration sites Number 10 15 20 25 30 Organize technology transfer exhibition Number 1 1 1 1 1 Distribute quality seedlings (Fruits) for urban agriculture Seedlings 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Facilitate the establishment of a plant for compost production from urban organic waste Number 1 1.1.3.2 Capacity building of Youth and Women groups in urban agriculture technologies and opportunities Support business plans for youth and women’ cooperatives Number 25 50 100 120 150 Organize training for youth and women’ cooperatives on urban farming Number (Cooperatives) 50 70 80 85 100 Mobilize farmers for high value crops Number 10 12 12 12 12 Link farmers with buyers through contract farming Number 10 15 15 20 25 1.1.3.3 Agro-eco-tourism opportunities Identify agro-eco-tourism opportunities Number (cumulative) 5 7 15 25 30 Organize trainings on agro-eco-tourism Number 250 250 250 250 250 124 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Conduct awareness campaigns on agro-eco-tourism Number 2 2 2 2 2 Output 1.1.4. Climate-smart agriculture practices improved 1.1.4.1. Soil erosion control Plantation of agro-forestry Ha 17,640 22,932 29,811 38,754 50,381 Develop Radical terraces Ha 4,200 4,250 5,000 5,500 6,000 Develop progressive terraces Ha 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 Wooded Savannah / shrub restoration Ha 27,418 34,180 40,943 47,705 54,467 Expand area under conservation agriculture Ha 1,173 11,000 50,000 70,000 100,000 Increase area under greenhouse Ha 55 66 79 95 114 1.1.4.2. Climate smart information systems and advisory services Map hot spot in agriculture (risk zone) Number (report) 1 1 1 1 1 Organize training session Number 2,148 2,200 2,250 2,500 3000 Train master trainer in climate smart agriculture Number 1,300 1,350 1,400 1,450 2000 Operationalize crop monitoring system Number 3 3 3 3 3 Output 1.1.5. Irrigation and water resource management improved 1.1.5.1 Development and rehabilitation of irrigation areas Marshlands Ha 300 300 1,438 1,000 2,162 Hillside irrigation Ha 4,201 3,850 9,785 12,460 8,932 Small-scale technologies Ha 600 4,933 4,892 2,885 2,848 Rehabilitate and maintain existing irrigation schemes Ha 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 1.1.5.2 Management of Irrigation Water User Organizations (IWUOs) 125 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Support organization and registration of IWUOs Number 25 30 40 50 55 Train members of IWUOs and cooperatives managing irrigation schemes on proper water management Number 1,380 1,679 1,820 2,000 2,150 1.1.5.3 Adoption of water saving technologies Pilot water saving technologies Number 1 2 3 5 7 Disseminate water saving technologies to users Number - factory 1 2 3 5 Output 1.1.6. Access to agricultural Inputs for climate-resilient production improved 1.1.6.1 Increasing the use of agriculture inputs (at least 30% distributed to women headed households) Mobilize farmers to use agriculture inputs Number 1,100,000 1,150,000 1,200,000 1,350,000 1,400,000 Establish farm services centres Number 6 8 10 15 20 Distribute and use of improved seed MT 7,954 8,351 8,769 9,207 9,668 Distribute and use of mineral fertilisers MT 101,191 106,250 111,563 117,141 122,998 Produce organic fertilisers MT 8,500,000 9,800,750 10,345,986 11,453,210 15,234,143 Distribute and use of lime MT 15,649 17,213 18,935 20,828 22,911 Produce Bio fertilizers MT 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,500 1.1.6.2 Boosting local production of organic and inorganic fertilizers Establish a manufacturing mineral fertilizer plant Number 1 Establish organic fertilizer production factory Number 2 2 2 2 2 1.1.6.3 Promotion of local seed production 1. Support the production of plantlets and mini-tubers seeds for potato crop Plantlets Number 2,600,000 2,730,000 2,866,500 3,009,825 3,160,316 126 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Mini-tubers Number 4,600,000 4,830,000 5,071,500 5,325,075 5,591,329 2. Support the production of pre-basic seeds Hybrid Maize seeds MT 4 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.9 Beans MT 4.5 5 5.4 6.0 6.6 Soybean MT 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.1 Wheat MT 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 Irish potato MT 500 550 605 665.5 732.1 3. Support to basic seed production Maize Hybrid MT 62 68.2 75 82.5 90.8 Wheat MT 40 44 48.4 53.2 58.6 Rice MT 15 16.5 18.2 20 22 Beans MT 46 50.6 55.7 61.2 67.3 Soybean MT 32 35.2 38.7 42.6 46.9 Irish potato MT 3,500 3,850 4,235 4,658.5 5,124.4 Banana Number 7,000 7,700 8,470 9,317 10,249 Nightshade KG 20 22 24.2 26.6 29.3 Spider plant KG 20 22 24.2 26.6 29.3 Avocado Number 20,476,700 22,524,370 24,776,807 27,254,488 29,979,936 Mango Number 3,553,600 3,908,960 4,299,856 4,729,842 5,202,826 Citrus Number 1,137,500 1,251,250 1,376,375 1,514,013 1,665,414 Apple Number 849,700 934,670 1,028,137 1,130,951 1,244,046 4. Support the production of certified seed Hybrid Maize MT 5,400 5,940 6,534 7,187 7,906 Soybean MT 300 330 363 399 439 127 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Wheat MT 460 506 557 612 673 Irish potato MT 10,000 11,000 12,100 13,310 14,641 Beans MT 350 385 424 466 512 Rice MT 660 726 799 878 966 5. QDS (Quality Declared Seeds) Irish potato MT 25,000 27,500 30,250 33,275 36,603 Cassava Number 120,000,000 132,000,000 145,200,000 159,720,000 175,692,000 Nightshade KG 20 22 24 27 29 Spider plant KG 15 17 18 20 22 Tree tomato KG 5 6 6 7 7 Passion fruit KG 20 22 24 27 29 Apple scions Number 284,000 312,400 343,640 378,004 415,804 Avocado scions Number 280,000 308,000 338,800 372,680 409,948 Mango scions Number 266,000 292,600 321,860 354,046 389,451 Citrus scions Number 122,000 134,200 147,620 162,382 178,620 1.1.6.4 Enhance infrastructure and equipment for seed production Acquisition and rehabilitation of screen houses and seed storage facilities Number 6 8 9 10 12 Acquisition and maintenance of seed production and processing equipment Number 2 2 4 5 6 Improve and maintain seed production sites with water supply (irrigation) Ha 26 30 35 40 45 Output 1.1.7. Plant health management enhanced 1.1.7.1 Sustainable plant health protection Conduct Pest and disease surveillance per season Number (report) 3 3 3 3 3 Upgrade existing plant clinics and create new ones linked to Food Basket Sites and AgriHubs Number 150 250 350 400 500 128 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Organize Plant health campaigns per season Number 3 3 3 3 3 Train farmers on IPM Number 1 1 1 1 1 Disseminate information on pest and disease forecast Number (report) 3 3 3 3 3 Train farmers in safe pesticides use, handling and disposal Number 10,920 11,500 12,780 13,932 15,000 Support Private service providers for pest and diseases control Number 450 600 800 1,000 Increase area covered by Pest management Practices Ha 550,000 650,000 780,920 802,450 877,500 Inspect planting materials Number 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Output 1.1.8. Mechanization and labour-saving technologies promoted 1.1.8.1 Increase the adoption of mechanization Operationalize the Centre of Excellence for mechanization Number (Report) 1 1 1 1 1 Develop prototypes of suitable farm machinery Number 4 4 4 4 44 Set up and facilitate private service providers in mechanization (tillage, drying, shelling,) Number 10 15 20 25 30 OUTCOME 1.2 MODERNIZED ANIMAL RESOURCES PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY Output 1.2.1. Animal husbandry and infrastructure in animal hubs improved 1.2.1.1 Animal resources infrastructures Establish animal resources production hubs (meat, dairy, eggs & fish) Number (cumulative) 35 40 43 45 50 Improve livestock sheds for zero-grazing policy Number 2,200 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 Develop and disseminate construction standards on animal shed Standards 1 1 1 1 1 Construct boreholes Number 20 25 25 25 30 Rehabilitate valley dams Number 5 5 5 5 5 129 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Support households with small-scale water harvesting facilities Number 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Construct modern livestock market Number 1 1 1 1 1 Output 1.2.2. Sustainable animal breeding established 1.2.2.1 Genetic Improvement Establish Centre of excellence for animal genetics Number 1 Establish breeding centres for cattle breed Number 1 1 Establish breeding centres for pig breed Number 1 1 Establish breeding centres for goat breed Number 1 1 1 Establish breeding centres for sheep breed Number 1 1 Establish breeding centres for rabbit breeds Number 1 1 Establish breeding centres for layer breed Number 1 1 1 Establish breeding centres for broiler breed Number 1 1 1 Establish breeding centres for dual purpose Poultry breeds Number 1 1 Introduce improved breeds bulls for dairy cattle Number 4 6 6 Introduce improved breeds bulls for beef Number 2 2 2 Introduce improved breeds for pig (boar and gilts) Number 0 14 28 Introduce improved breeds for goat Number of parents 0 30 0 40 0 Introduce improved breeds for sheep Number of parents 0 15 0 20 0 Introduce improved breeds for poultry Number of parents 100 200 300 400 0 Introduce improved breeds for rabbits Number of parents 100 100 100 100 0 Certify hatcheries for Poultry Number 1 1 Establish LN2 plants and near animal hubs to ease logistic for AI provision Number 1 1 1 130 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Create comprehensive legal framework for animal breeding and genetic management Number 1 Create electronic herd/flock book system Number 1 Output 1.2.3. Access to animal feed improved 1.2.3.1 Animal feeding Increase area under improved forage Ha 12,000 12,500 13,000 14,000 15,300 Increase local animal feeds production from factories MT 89,481 103,955 120,770 140,305 163,000 Support Farmer organisations with equipment and training for feed production Number 37 50 50 50 50 Support forage seed multipliers including climate seed varieties Number 126 156 186 216 246 Increase access to Machinery used in fodder harvesting and processing Number 50 100 115 200 250 Output 1.2.4. Animal health systems strengthened 1.2.4.1 Animal health Establish and strengthen the national epidemic surveillance programme Number (Report) 2 2 2 2 2 Establish and operationalize veterinary clinics Number 96 176 256 336 416 Increase proximity to private veterinary services providers Number 14,216 14,623 15,034 15,448 15,864 Implement Veterinary Sanitary Mandate (VSM) Number (report) 4 4 4 4 4 Vaccinate cattle Number 999,150 1,006,552 1,021,354 1,031,222 1,088,245 Vaccinate goats Number 1,415,223 1,824,757 2,085,436 2,085,436 2,215,776 Vaccinate sheep Number 337,926 442,224 505,398 505,398 536,986 Vaccinate pig Number 727,752 808,614 875,998 1,145,536 1,583,535 Vaccinate rabbit Number 38,650 85,225 271,799 376,980 483,587 Vaccinate poultry Number 3,174,788 3,999,632 4,899,549 5,881,059 6,565,307 Output 1.2.5. Fisheries and aquaculture developed 131 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 1.2.5.1 Fish production Establish the national aquaculture research centre Number 1 Conduct capacity building of fishers, fish farmers and other value chain actors Number 1,200 1,500 1,700 1,800 2,000 Establish FFS in fish industry Number 30 30 30 30 30 Establish and operationalize hatcheries Number 13 14 15 16 17 Produce fingerlings for aquaculture Number 20,000,000 26,000,000 36,000,000 46,000,000 58,000,000 Establish aquaparks Number 7 8 9 10 11 Output 1.2.6. Beekeeping developed 1.2.6.1 Honey production Establish bee queen rearing centres Number 1 1 1 Build capacities of Beekeepers Number 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Increase the number of improved bee colonies in modern hives Number 670,000 685,000 690,000 695,000 700,000 Increase the quantity of melliferous plants and pollinator friendly plants around apiaries Number 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 400,000 Establish bee reserves (Nyungwe, Gishwati, Mukura, Virunga National Park and Akagera National Park and Ruhande/Arboretum) Number (bee reserves) 1 1 1 1 1 PRIORITY AREA 2: INCLUSIVE MARKETS AND POST-HARVEST MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS OUTCOME 2.1 BOOSTED AGRICULTURE EXPORTS Output 2.1.1. Export crops expanded 2.1.1.1 Increase the area under export crop production within AgriHubs Increase the area under coffee production Ha 500 500 500 500 500 132 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Increase the area under tea production Ha 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 Increase the area under pyrethrum area Ha 155 155 155 155 155 Increase the area for different plant/crops that produce essential oils Ha 322 323 322 322 323 Increase the area under French beans production Ha 15 16 18 20 22 Increase the area under chili production (including those produced under protected agriculture systems) Ha 227 322 460 654 933 Increase the area under avocado production Ha 23 79 88 87 87 Increase the area under passion fruit production Ha 1 4 4 4 5 Increase the area under macadamia production Ha 54 48 85 53 89 Increase the area under flowers production Ha 13 9 8 9 9 2.1.1.2 Increase Export crops production Increase coffee production MT 21,386.9 23,328 25,920 28,800 32,000 Increase tea production MT 41,500 42,719 47,466 52,740 58,600 Increase pyrethrum production MT 35 45 58 76 99 Increase vegetables production MT 67,197 87,356 113,563 147,632 191,921 Increase fruits production MT 26,344 31,612 37,935 45,522 54,626 Increase flowers production MT 931 1,024 1,126 1,239 1,362 2.1.1.3 Operationalization of specialised AgriHubs Export handling facilities Increase cold-chain facilities Number 2 2 2 2 2 Establish a traceability system in export value chains Number 0 0 1 0 0 Adopt third party certified products and systems Number 10 10 10 10 10 133 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 2.1.1.4 Unlock growth in export value chains to diversify exports Identify potential markets for diversified export products Number 4 4 4 4 4 Conduct market intelligence studies Number 4 4 4 4 4 Penetrate identified markets Number 1 2 2 3 3 Output 2.1.2. Rwandan agri- exports de-commoditized 2.1.2.1 Enhance the market share and public diplomacy Organise trade events through economic diplomacy Number 10 10 10 10 10 Organise exhibitions and trade show at local, regional and international level Number 100 100 100 100 100 Initiate and sign direct supply agreements and protocols in high-value markets Number 5 5 5 5 5 Organise branding campaigns for Rwandan products Number 4 4 4 4 4 2.1.2.2 Strengthening home market for export products Organize Local campaigns for home consumption and agri-tourism Number 4 4 4 4 4 Establish Facilities for exporting and domestic value addition Number 5 5 10 10 10 2.1.2.3 Revamp agri- export facilities for value addition and diversification Establish and upgrade agriculture export facilities (horticulture) Number 1 1 Establish and Upgrade handling facility (tea, coffee) Number 1 2 Establish and upgrade quality-testing facilities Number 1 1 1 1 1 OUTCOME 2.2. STRENGTHENED MARKET LINKAGES AND POST-HARVEST INFRASTRUCTURE Output 2.2.1. Organisation models of farmers and value chain actors improved 2.2.1.1 Cooperatives in AgriHubs Support cooperatives working in AgriHubs scheme Number 30 30 60 80 80 134 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Support Women and youth led-cooperatives Number 15 15 30 40 40 Develop comprehensive training module on governance and management Number 1 1 1 1 1 Conduct training sessions per cooperative Number 16 16 16 16 16 Establish and coordinate new value chain platforms Number 5 7 7 7 8 Strengthen market linkages through contract farming Contracts 3 3 3 3 3 Output 2.2.2. Post-harvest handling for reduced losses improved 2.2.2.1 Post-harvest management Establish community-based facilities for post-harvest handling and local value addition, driven by private sector engagement Community-based facilities 2 2 2 2 2 Enhance skills in post-harvest management Trained farmers 17,150 19,230 22,500 25,789 30,127 Construct Animal feeds factories (including fish feeds industry) Number 2 1 1 1 Foster public-private partnerships to establish large-scale impact initiatives for post-harvest handling Number 2 2 3 4 5 Develop and implement private sector-led facilities and services aimed at enhancing market linkages for post-harvest handling Number 1 1 1 1 1 Establish and upgrade milk collection centres (MCCs) to streamline milk supply to the market Number 2 18 34 3 2 Establish milk collection points (MCPs) Number 4 4 4 4 4 Establish and upgrade Cold storage facilities Number 5 5 5 5 10 Increase the storage capacity of animal feeds Number (cumulative) 2 3 4 7 9 Strengthen MCCs as a hub to improve supply and milk collection Number 5 10 15 20 135 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Construct Landing sites (fish) Number 5 5 5 3 3 Construct Fish Drying flakes (small fish) Number 4 4 3 3 1 Establish Smoking areas (fish) Number 1 1 1 Purchase Mobile dryers for cereals Number 8 20 20 20 25 Construct collection centres (Irish potato, cassava, vegetables, honey and eggs etc..) Number 12 5 5 5 5 Construct food crop storage facilities (silos and warehouses) Number 5 5 5 5 5 Construct drying grounds (rice and wheat) Number 10 40 52 48 30 Construct drying shelters (maize and beans) Number 25 55 65 60 50 Procure appropriate packaging materials Number 750 800 1,000 1,500 2,000 Output 2.2.3. Agriculture commodity safety and quality Increased 2.2.3.1 Agriculture testing facilities Upgrade testing facilities for safety and quality parameters Number 1 2 1 Establish a traceability system Number 1 Output 2.2.4. Value addition increased 2.2.4.1 Facilities for value addition Establish and upgrade small livestock slaughter slabs Number 20 25 30 30 35 Establish and upgrade dairy processing facilities Number 3 3 3 3 3 Establish and upgrade local wholegrain flour mills Number 3 3 3 3 3 Provide technical assistance to business operators in standardisation Number 65 80 90 100 120 136 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Output 2.2.5. Trade infrastructures improved 2.2.5.1 Aggregation and markets facilities Establish Kigali wholesale market Number 1 Strengthen animal and livestock markets Number 11 12 13 14 15 Conduct need assessment for infrastructures needs (feeder roads, water and electricity) Number 1 1 1 1 1 Develop protocols for trade facilities Number 1 1 1 1 1 OUTCOME 2.3 IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION Output 2.3.1. Food security and nutrition improved 2.3.1.1 Nutrition sensitive Agriculture Facilitate the establishment of schools’ orchards and gardens Number 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2.3.1.2 Produce biofortified seeds Beans MT 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 Sweet potato Cuttings 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Cassava Cuttings 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Mushrooms MT 50 70 80 100 120 Potato MT 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Develop and disseminate Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) Number 13,500 16,000 20,000 25,800 30,000 Outreach campaigns for nutrition sensitive agriculture mainstreaming guidelines Number 4 4 4 4 Output 2.3.2. Households supported with animal resources production and nutrition sensitive crop production (at least 30% distributed to women headed households) 2.3.2.1 Distribution of animal resources and vegetable seeds to families 137 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Cows under Girinka program Number 25,000 28,000 30,000 33,000 35,000 Vegetable seeds for kitchen garden MT 1 1 1 1 1 Goats Number 18,630 20,436 22,500 25,785 30,890 Pigs Number 12,500 14,680 17,320 18,500 20,700 Sheep Number 7,425 9,800 11,908 13,769 15,740 Fruits trees Number 140,000 150,000 200,000 220,000 250,000 Rabbit Number 1,500 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Poultry Number 143,720 145,600 147,890 150,000 160,000 Output 2.3.3. Food stability and mitigating related shocks ensured 2.3.3.1 Increase national storage grain reserves National storage capacity of food crops (cumulative) MT 330,025 345,025 365,025 390,025 420,025 Grain storage capacity (silos) for animal feeds MT 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Food stored as strategic reserve MT 31,678 32,150 35,000 37,500 43,000 Maize MT 16,478 16,000 17,500 18,500 20,000 Beans MT 11,200 11,500 12,000 12,500 15,000 Rice MT 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 5,000 Soya MT 1,500 1,650 2,000 2,500 3,000 PRIORITY AREA 3: STRENGTHENING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS ENABLERS FOR EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT DELIVERY OUTCOME 3.1 STRENGTHENED RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER FOR AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS 138 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Output 3.1.1. Demand-driven research enhanced 3.1.1.1 Develop climate resilient and disease resistant varieties Maize Number 0 2 0 2 0 Rice Number 1 0 1 0 1 Wheat Number 7 0 3 1 1 Cassava Number 0 2 0 1 0 Irish potato Number 1 0 3 0 0 Sweet potato Number 1 0 0 3 0 Beans Number 0 0 3 0 0 Soybean Number 0 0 3 0 0 Banana Number 0 0 1 0 0 Horticulture (fruits) Number 0 1 1 2 2 Coffee Number 3 0 3 0 3 Tea Number 3 0 3 0 3 Pyrethrum Number 3 0 3 0 3 Develop protocols for in-vitro production of clean (disease-free) planting materials Number 1 1 1 1 1 3.1.1.1.2 Develop new animal breeds Introduce goat breed Number 1 1 1 1 1 Introduce sheep breed Number 0 1 0 1 0 Introduce pig breeds Number 1 1 1 1 1 Introduce layer poultry breeds Number 0 0 1 0 0 Introduce broiler poultry breeds Number 0 0 0 1 1 Introduce dual poultry breeds Number 0 1 0 0 1 Introduce new dairy breeds Number 0 1 1 1 1 139 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Introduce new beef breeds Number 1 2 2 2 2 Introduce rabbits breed Number 2 2 4 4 4 Produce research products in bee genetics Number 1 1 1 1 1 3.1.1.1.3 Develop new production technologies Conduct study on the adoption of modern technologies and climate resilient practices Number 1 1 Upgrade research stations Number 2 2 2 2 2 Develop confined facilities Number 0 0 1 0 0 Establish screen house facilities Number 2 2 2 2 2 Construction of greenhouse facilities Number 2 2 2 2 2 Develop databases for national soil and crop information system Number 0 1 0 0 0 Develop crop suitability maps Number 0 1 0 1 0 Develop integrated soil fertility management technologies Number 1 1 1 1 1 Produce fertilizer recommendations per crop Number 3 3 3 3 Conduct soil sampling and testing Ha 84,060 99,560 115,060 130,560 146,060 Develop new bio-fertilizer technologies Number 0 1 0 1 0 Develop biotechnology products (genetically modified products & protocols) Number 0 1 1 1 1 Develop improved manure management technologies Number 0 1 1 0 2 Develop animal feed technologies Number 2 1 3 2 2 Develop crop management technologies Number 2 2 2 2 2 Develop efficient water use technologies Number 0 1 0 1 0 Develop climate smart techniques Number 0 1 1 1 1 Develop diagnostic tools for quick detection of major diseases Number 1 1 1 1 1 Develop new pest/disease control and IPM packages for crops Number 2 4 2 4 2 140 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Conduct pest and disease surveillance Number (per season) 2 2 2 2 2 3.1.1.1.4 Develop post-harvest technologies Develop technologies for value addition Number 1 0 1 0 1 Develop technologies for post-harvest handling Number 0 1 0 1 0 Develop food waste management technologies Number 0 0 1 0 0 3.1.1.1.5 Conservation of genetic resources Conserve Local cattle breeds Number 0 0 1 0 1 Characterize and conserve Local poultry breeds Number 0 0 1 0 1 Upgrade the National Genebank Number (Report) 0 0 1 0 0 Establish of National Collection of Microbial Genetic Resources Number of accessions 1 1 1 1 1 Collect, characterise and conserve plant genetic resources Number 230 230 230 230 230 Collect, characterise and conserve forage genetic resources Number 20 20 20 20 20 Collect, characterise and conserve local animal genetic resources Number 60 60 60 60 60 3.1.1.1.6 Promotion of private - led research Acquire patents from researchers on new technologies Number 5 5 5 5 5 Develop new technologies in partnership with the private sector Number 2 3 4 5 Organize and coordinate research day Number 1 1 1 Output 3.1.2. Customised Agriculture Extension System Enhanced 3.1.2.1 Customized extension packages in each value chains Profiling food crops value chains Number 5 Profiling animal resources value chains Number 4 141 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Profiling horticulture value chains Number 4 Develop customized extension package for each value chain Number 14 Conduct a study on extension services providers in the country Number 1 Certify extension professionals Number 400 550 600 650 Establish a digital system of professional licensed extension providers Number 1 3.1.2.2 Capacity development and quality certification Conduct need assessment for extension services providers in prioritized value chains Number (Need assessment) 1 Train Master trainers on specific value chain Number 250 250 250 250 250 Train Front-line extension agents (such as FFS facilitators, FPs) on the delivery of new extension packages Number 17,000 17,000 17,500 18,500 21,620 Establish L-FFS groups by L-FFS Facilitators Number 600 600 600 600 600 Establish FFS on fish farming Number 30 30 30 30 30 Train aquaculture and fisheries master trainers Number 100 100 100 100 100 Establish Livestock Farmer Field Schools Number 800 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Organize Livestock Farmer Field School (L-FFS) ) that provides Extension Advisory Services (TWIGIRE MWOROZI) Number 4,946 4,946 4,946 4,946 4,946 Support Farmer Promoters with basic package Number 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 Support Crop FFS Facilitators Number 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 Support Livestock Farmer Field School (L-FFS) Facilitators Number 4,946 4,946 4,946 4,946 4,946 Establish demonstration plots Number 29,000 29,000 29,000 29,000 29,000 3.1.2.3 Strengthen partnership between private sector, government, and knowledge institutions Establish platforms of extension providers and scientists to identify research and capacity needs Meetings 4 4 4 4 4 Develop research and capacity building agenda for centres of excellence Number 8 8 8 8 8 142 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Output 3.1.3. Technical capacity, education, and skills developed 3.1.3.1 Enhance knowledge and skills in agriculture related interventions Train youth and professional farmers on technical courses by education institutions and other relevant specialised institutions Number 450 650 850 1,050 1,250 Organize long term training in Agri-food systems (Masters & PhDs) Number 8 8 8 8 8 Organize on-job specialised and professional short courses in the Agri-food systems Number 50 50 50 50 50 Undertake curricula review in collaboration with relevant specialised institutions Number 1 1 1 1 1 Upgrade schools with facilities to train in Agri-food related disciplines Number 5 5 5 5 5 Upscale industrial attachment programs to private sector (50% women) Number of students 500 1000 2000 3000 4000 Provide Youth with training, mentorship, and start-up packages (50 % women) Number 500 500 500 500 500 OUTCOME 3.2 STRENGTHENED AGRICULTURE DE-RISKING FOR RESILIENCE Output 3.2.1. Access to Agriculture Finance increased 3.2.1.1 De-risking facility 1 1 1 1 Establish credit guarantee facility Number 1 1 1 1 Establish grant facility for infrastructure development Number 1 1 1 1 Establish grant facility for market linkages and technology development Number 1 1 1 1 Develop agri-finance products Number 5 5 5 5 5 Digital farmer profiles and transaction histories stored 50,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 500,000 Conduct financial literacy campaigns targeting farmers and other relevant stakeholders Number 15 23 27 30 30 143 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Output 3.2.2. Agriculture Insurance Scheme strengthened 3.2.2.1 Crop and Animal resource insurance Develop and operationalize guidelines for insurance products Number 1 1 1 1 1 Insure area under rice Ha 23,826 23,926 24,026 24,126 24,226 Insure area under maize Ha 9,519 11,105 12,692 14,278 15,865 Insure area under Irish Potatoes Ha 2,662 4,249 5,835 7,421 9,008 Insure area under soya bean Ha 1,809 3,396 4,982 6,568 8,155 Insure area under beans Ha 1,802 3,388 4,975 6,561 8,148 Insure area under cassava Ha 1,586 3,173 4,759 6,346 7,932 Insure area under chilli Ha 340 578 816 1,054 1,292 Insure area under French beans Ha 263 501 739 977 1,215 Insure cattle Number 49,962 51,462 53,462 55,962 58,962 Insure pig Number 27,300 52,300 82,300 117,300 157,300 Insure poultry Number 294,506 324,506 364,506 414,506 474,506 Insure fishponds/farms Number 5,200 9,900 16,100 24,650 35,000 Insure rabbits Number 426,499 541,326 629,907 1,104,634 1,189,606 Train professionals (public & Private) on agriculture insurance Number 4,054 4,729 5,405 6,080 6,756 OUTCOME 3.3. DIGITISED AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS Output 3.3.1. Affordable digital technologies developed 3.3.1.1 Device access and connectivity 144 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Support farmers owning smartphones or other relevant devices through partnerships with telcos Number 200,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 Subsidize agriculture services on digital transaction fees Number 2 2 2 2 2 Build and maintain the Agricultural Management Information System (AMIS) Number 1 1 1 1 1 Host agriculture services in the data centre (OCI) Number 0 1 1 5 10 Output 3.3.2. Data governance enhanced 3.3.2.1 Agriculture data management Develop data Strategy and governance framework Number 1 Increase innovative technologies and methods such as crowdsourcing, camera-equipped drones, and high-resolution satellite imagery to gather data more efficiently and timely Number 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Mobilize new data collection agents and farmer promoters including youth onboarded to support quality data collection through GOR and private sector Number 5,000 7,000 9,000 10,000 15000 Develop Integrated decision support dashboards Number 1 1 1 2 1 Output 3.3.3. Digital innovation in agriculture value chains promoted 3.3.3.1 Agritech innovation pipeline Digitize and operationalize agriculture services Number 5 10 10 20 30 Digitalize value chains systems Number 5 5 5 5 5 Facilitate farmers and traders to access local and international markets through e-commerce Number 2,000 3,000 5,000 10,000 20,000 Register of farmers & livestock through Agriculture Management Information System (AMIS) Number of farmers registered in AMIS 100,000 500,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 145 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Output 3.3.4. Digital competencies developed 3.3.4.1 Enhance digital literacy Train digital ambassadors, farmer promoters, extension workers, and village elders in digital literacy Number 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Train Farmers in digital literacy and using digital services Number 20,000 50,000 100,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 Establish youth led hanga-hubs Number of youths 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Develop value chain digital literacy modules Number 5 7 9 11 Output 3.3.5. Sustainable business models for digital systems and platforms developed 3.3.5.1 Upgrade and develop digital systems Develop and implement a digital financial strategy /framework for agriculture, aiming to increase the percentage of farmers utilizing mobile banking, wallets, and credit platforms Number 0 1 Initiate business models for digital platforms Number 0 1 1 1 Mobilize investors through public-private partnerships in digital agriculture projects within a defined timeframe Number 1 2 4 6 8 Mobilize technical experts to support implementation of development partner funded projects implementation Number 5 10 15 20 25 Output 3.3.6. Digitalization networking strengthened 3.3.6.1 Reinforce coordination for agriculture digitalization Establish the digital agriculture technical working group Number 1 1 1 1 1 Establish National digital agriculture task force Number 1 1 1 1 1 OUTCOME 3.4 STRENGTHENED AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS PLANNING AND COORDINATION Output 3.4.1. Capacity for planning and knowledge management enhanced 3.4.1.1 Strengthen public sector capacity to design impactful programs Establish a programme designing Unit Number 1 1 1 1 1 146 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Design programmes Number 6 2 2 2 2 Develop projects designed as PPP, public, or private prepared and funded Number 30 35 35 35 40 Train staff in food systems management Number 30 30 30 30 30 Train staff in core and emerging topics Number 15 15 15 15 15 Output 3.4.2. Agri-food systems coordination and value chains developed 3.4.2.1 Coordination for Agri-food system stakeholders Design business plans for value chain development packaged for entrepreneurs Number 8 8 8 8 8 Establish value chain platforms Number 7 8 10 12 15 Establish transparent governance structure for agri-PPDs Number 1 1 1 1 1 Organize meetings with regional value chain platforms to establish linkages Number 3 3 3 3 3 Output 3.4.3. Policy and regulatory reform for an enabling environment reviewed 3.4.3.1 Review policy and strategic documents Set-up a taskforce to review regulatory bottlenecks Number 1 1 1 1 1 Review regulatory bottlenecks Number (report) 1 1 1 1 1 Organize a stakeholder consultation on regulatory review needs conducted Number 4 4 4 4 4 Output 3.4.4. Institutional reforms for effective implementation enhanced 3.4.4.1 Modernize institutional framework Conduct institutional review in light of PSTA 5 Number (report) 1 Undertake institutional restructuring based on the review Number (report) 1 Establish National CAES Secretariat Number 1 Establish Rwanda forum for agricultural extension and advisory service professionals Number 3 3 3 3 Establish Food Systems coordination unit Number 1 1 1 1 1 147 No Item Description Unit 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/ 29 Introduce improved digital processes and systems for more efficient food systems planning Number 1 1 1 1 ANNEX 3: BUDGET FRAMEWORK Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Total Budget for PSTA 5 1,071,578 1,134,955 1,420,956 1,343,034 1,435,934 6,406,457.4 PRIORITY AREA ONE: MODERNIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND ANIMAL RESOURCES PRODUCTION FOR CLIMATE -RESILIENT AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS 640,492.9 694,215.3 772,736.7 807,233.9 838,819.7 3,753,498.6 OUTCOME 1.1 MODERNIZED CROP PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY 418,451.8 446,503.3 497,099.1 529,054.1 539,704.1 2,430,812.4 Output 1.1.1 Agricultural land management and production models improved 3,265.0 5,975.1 3,631.3 3,602.3 3,806.8 20,280.6 1.1.1.1. Agriculture Land-use Masterplan - 2,504.8 110.0 - - 2,614.8 Develop Agriculture Land use Masterplan (LUMP) Masterplan - 2,187.0 - - - 2,187.0 Produce regulations and guidelines for land lease and contract farming Guidelines & regulations - 53.0 110.0 - - 163.0 Conduct consultative meetings with various stakeholders Number - 254.2 - - - 254.2 Organize validation session of LUMP Number - 10.7 - - - 10.7 Subtotal - 2,504.8 110.0 - - 2,614.8 1.1.1.2. Operationalization of Food Basket Sites (FOBASI) 3,162.6 3,310.2 3,435.0 3,602.3 3,806.8 17,316.9 Mapping Foodbasket sites per district per crop Ha 182.0 240.5 356.8 463.1 577.1 1,819.6 Establish guidelines for Food Basket Sites development Number 25.5 - - - 29.6 55.1 148 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Organize mobilization meeting with farmers and leaders Number 18.5 19.2 20.1 20.9 21.8 100.4 Capacity building of cooperatives members in the Food Basket Sites (FOBASI) Number 307.2 320.1 223.0 174.3 121.1 1,145.6 Support FOBASI Cooperatives with professional managers Number 1,100.7 1,142.9 1,186.8 1,232.4 1,279.8 5,942.6 Train extension agents under FOBASI Number 1,528.8 1,587.4 1,648.3 1,711.6 1,777.5 8,253.6 Subtotal 3,162.6 3,310.2 3,435.0 3,602.3 3,806.8 17,316.9 1.1.1.3. AgriHubs establishment 102.4 160.2 86.3 - - 348.8 Promote and operationalize Agri-Hubs Ha 51.4 160.2 86.3 - - 297.9 Develop guidelines for Agri hub Guidelines 51.0 - - - - 51.0 Subtotal 102.4 160.2 86.3 - - 348.8 Output 1.1.2. Small-holder farmers supported for household resilience 10,765.8 12,034.0 13,603.6 15,867.0 19,259.9 71,530.3 1.1.2.1. Support smallholders to create Food Basket Sites 10,765.8 12,034.0 13,603.6 15,867.0 19,259.9 71,530.3 Facilitate access to land tenure and leasing arrangements Number (Outreach staff) 1,834.5 1,904.9 1,978.0 2,054.0 2,132.9 9,904.3 Support smallholder farmers with improved seeds (Maize) Kg 3,868.0 4,252.6 5,190.6 5,792.2 6,711.1 25,814.5 Support smallholder farmers with cuttings (cassava, sweet potatoes) Cuttings 21.4 25.4 39.6 51.3 71.1 208.8 Support smallholder farmers with fertilizers MT 5,041.8 5,851.1 6,395.5 7,969.4 10,344.8 35,602.7 Subtotal 10,765.8 12,034.0 13,603.6 15,867.0 19,259.9 71,530.3 149 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Output 1.1.3. Urban and peri-urban farming promoted 4,436.5 12,843.8 8,062.1 9,381.2 11,459.5 46,183.1 1.1.3.1. Promotion of vertical farming (Kitchen garden, Aquaponic, Hydroponics,) 1,328.0 8,173.3 1,995.0 2,363.9 2,758.1 16,618.3 Support the extension of the Horticulture center of excellence Lumpsum 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.3 23.0 108.2 Establish demonstration sites Number 13.2 20.4 28.0 36.1 44.8 142.5 Organize technology transfer exhibition Number 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.2 111.6 Distribute quality seedlings (Fruits) for urban agriculture Seedlings 1,274.0 1,587.4 1,923.0 2,282.2 2,666.2 9,732.8 Establish a plant for organic manure production from City waste Number - 6,523.2 - - - 6,523.2 Subtotal 1,328.0 8,173.3 1,995.0 2,363.9 2,758.1 16,618.3 1.1.3.2. Capacity building of Youth and Women groups in urban agriculture technologies and opportunities 3,025.7 4,562.8 5,865.8 6,691.5 8,301.3 28,447.2 Support business plans for youth and women’ cooperatives Number 255.3 531.9 1,108.6 1,386.1 1,805.5 5,087.4 Organize training for youth and women’ cooperatives on urban farming Number (Cooperatives) 2,565.3 3,742.2 4,456.4 4,933.8 6,048.3 21,746.0 Mobilize farmers for high value crops Number 102.6 128.3 133.7 139.3 145.2 649.1 Link farmers with buyers through contract farming Number 102.6 160.4 167.1 232.2 302.4 964.7 Subtotal 3,025.7 4,562.8 5,865.8 6,691.5 8,301.3 28,447.2 1.1.3.3. Agro-eco-tourism opportunities 82.8 107.7 201.3 325.9 400.0 1,117.6 150 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Identify agro-eco-tourism opportunities Number (cumulative) 51.3 74.8 167.1 290.2 362.9 946.4 Organize trainings on agro eco-tourism Number 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.9 59.7 Conduct awareness campaigns on agro-eco tourism Number 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.2 111.6 Subtotal 82.8 107.7 201.3 325.9 400.0 1,117.6 Output 1.1.4. Climate-smart agriculture practices improved 54,463.0 60,674.2 70,492.0 80,193.0 90,915.8 356,738.0 1.1.4.1. Soil erosion control 27,577.3 31,587.8 39,123.1 46,333.4 54,398.6 199,020.2 Plantation of agro-forestry Ha 2,749.7 3,709.1 5,003.3 6,749.4 9,105.3 27,316.7 Develop radical terraces Ha 14,865.7 15,608.7 19,054.7 21,750.2 24,622.5 95,901.9 Develop progressive terraces Ha 4,239.9 4,766.0 5,325.9 5,921.4 6,554.4 26,807.6 Wooded Savannah / Shrub restoration Ha 5,698.5 7,371.1 9,162.1 11,077.7 13,125.0 46,434.4 Expand area under conservation agriculture Ha 12.2 118.6 559.4 812.7 963.9 2,466.9 Increase area under greenhouse Ha 11.4 14.2 17.7 22.1 27.5 92.9 Subtotal 27,577.3 31,587.8 39,123.1 46,333.4 54,398.6 199,020.2 1.1.4.2. Climate smart information systems and advisory services 26,885.7 29,086.4 31,368.8 33,859.6 36,517.2 157,717.8 Map hot spot in agriculture (risk zone) Number (report) 51.3 53.5 - - - 104.8 Organize training session Number 94.1 100.4 107.0 123.9 154.9 580.2 Train master trainer on climate smart agriculture Number 26,678.7 28,868.4 31,195.0 33,666.1 36,289.7 156,698.0 Operationalize crop monitoring system Number 61.6 64.2 66.8 69.7 72.6 334.8 Subtotal 26,885.7 29,086.4 31,368.8 33,859.6 36,517.2 157,717.8 151 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Output 1.1.5. Irrigation and water resource management improved 134,563.4 155,834.1 161,731.4 185,297.6 156,192.7 793,619.2 1.1.5.1. Development and rehabilitation of Irrigation areas 134,482.5 155,716.8 161,580.8 185,086.7 155,922.9 792,789.7 Marshlands Ha 26,914.8 27,927.5 28,979.2 30,071.4 31,205.8 145,098.7 Hillside irrigation Ha 62,350.9 80,871.1 83,916.6 104,495.3 72,291.4 403,925.2 Small-scale technologies Ha 29,629.1 30,744.0 31,901.7 33,104.1 34,352.9 159,731.8 Rehabilitate existing irrigation schemes Ha 15,587.7 16,174.2 16,783.3 17,415.9 18,072.8 84,034.0 Subtotal 134,482.5 155,716.8 161,580.8 185,086.7 155,922.9 792,789.7 1.1.5.2. Management of Irrigation Water User Organizations (IWUOs) 60.6 75.5 85.8 99.3 108.6 429.7 Support organization and registration of IWUOs Number - - - - - Train members of IWUOs and cooperatives managing irrigation schemes on proper water management /j Number 60.6 75.5 85.8 99.3 108.6 429.7 Subtotal 60.6 75.5 85.8 99.3 108.6 429.7 1.1.5.3. Adoption of water saving technologies 20.3 41.9 64.9 111.6 161.2 399.9 Pilot water saving technologies Number 20.3 41.9 64.9 111.6 161.2 399.9 Disseminate water saving technologies to users Number - - - - - Subtotal 20.3 41.9 64.9 111.6 161.2 399.9 Output 1.1.6. Access to agricultural Inputs for climate resilient production improved 128,712.0 105,911.7 143,708.8 128,831.1 142,249.0 649,412.6 1.1.6.1. Increasing the use of agriculture inputs (at least 30% distributed to women headed households) 99,030.2 72,628.6 79,433.8 86,890.5 95,062.7 433,045.7 152 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Mobilize farmers to use agriculture inputs Number - - - - - Establish farm services centres Number - - - - - Distribute and use of improved seed MT 2,407.6 2,634.2 2,882.0 3,153.2 3,449.9 14,526.9 Distribute and use of mineral fertilisers MT 60,021.9 65,440.4 71,350.0 77,795.5 84,825.5 359,433.2 Produce organic fertilisers MT 32,613.5 - - - - 32,613.5 Distribution and use of lime MT 3,987.1 4,554.1 5,201.8 5,941.8 6,787.2 26,472.0 Production of Bio fertilizers MT - - - - - Subtotal 99,030.2 72,628.6 79,433.8 86,890.5 95,062.7 433,045.7 1.1.6.2. Boosting local production of organic and inorganic fertilizers 6,322.6 6,523.2 33,651.1 6,944.0 7,164.6 60,605.5 Establish a manufacturing mineral fertilizer plant Number - - 26,920.9 - - 26,920.9 Establish organic fertilizer production factory Number 6,322.6 6,523.2 6,730.2 6,944.0 7,164.6 33,684.6 Subtotal 6,322.6 6,523.2 33,651.1 6,944.0 7,164.6 60,605.5 1.1.6.3. Promotion of Local Seed Production 22,796.4 26,037.9 29,743.3 33,961.1 38,766.4 151,305.1 Hybrid Maize MT 12,553.5 14,338.5 16,377.8 18,706.6 21,369.2 83,345.8 Beans MT 627.1 716.3 819.1 934.8 1,066.6 4,163.9 Soybean MT 458.6 523.8 598.3 682.9 780.3 3,044.1 Wheat MT 726.7 830.0 948.7 1,082.4 1,236.1 4,823.9 Rice MT 817.3 933.5 1,066.8 1,217.3 1,390.8 5,425.6 Irish potato MT 7,613.2 8,695.7 9,932.5 11,336.9 12,923.5 50,501.8 Subtotal 22,796.4 26,037.9 29,743.3 33,961.1 38,766.4 151,305.1 1.1.6.4. Enhance infrastructure and equipment for Seed Production 562.9 722.0 880.6 1,035.6 1,255.3 4,456.3 153 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Acquisition and rehabilitation of screen Houses and seed storage facilities Number 280.6 388.2 453.1 522.5 650.6 2,295.0 Acquisition and maintenance of seed production and processing equipment Number 26.0 27.0 55.9 72.6 90.4 271.8 Improve and maintain seed production sites with water supply (Irrigation) Ha 256.3 306.9 371.5 440.6 514.3 1,889.5 Subtotal 562.9 722.0 880.6 1,035.6 1,255.3 4,456.3 Output 1.1.7. Plant Health Management enhanced 81,728.1 92,452.9 94,775.1 104,488.3 114,149.9 487,594.3 1.1.7.1. Sustainable plant health protection 81,728.1 92,452.9 94,775.1 104,488.3 114,149.9 487,594.3 Conduct pest and disease surveillance per season Number (report) 152.9 158.9 165.0 171.5 178.1 826.4 Upgrade existing plant clinics and create new ones linked to Food Basket Sites and Agrihubs Number 4,587.4 4,765.6 - - - 9,353.0 Organize plant health campaigns per season Number 152.9 158.9 165.0 171.5 178.1 826.4 Train farmers on IPM Number 20,022.5 22,323.9 24,889.8 27,750.6 30,940.3 125,927.1 Disseminate information on pest and disease forecast Number (report) 275.2 285.9 297.1 308.6 320.6 1,487.5 Train farmers in safe pesticides use, handling and disposal Number 5,566.0 6,089.4 6,326.2 7,962.3 8,906.4 34,850.3 Support private service providers for pest and diseases control Number - 5,718.8 7,921.5 10,973.0 14,250.3 38,863.5 Inspect planting materials Number 50,971.1 52,951.6 55,010.5 57,150.9 59,376.1 275,460.1 Subtotal 81,728.1 92,452.9 94,775.1 104,488.3 114,149.9 487,594.3 154 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Output 1.1.8. Mechanization and labour-saving technologies promoted 518.1 777.4 1,094.8 1,393.6 1,670.5 5,454.4 1.1.8.1. Increase the adoption of mechanization 518.1 777.4 1,094.8 1,393.6 1,670.5 5,454.4 Operationalize the centre of excellence for mechanization Number (Report) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.5 54.1 Develop prototypes of suitable farm machinery Number 406.3 419.2 432.5 446.3 460.5 2,164.8 Set up and facilitate private service providers in mechanization (Tillage, drying, shelling,) Number 101.6 157.2 216.3 278.9 345.3 1,099.3 Management support for operations Number (reports) - 190.5 435.2 657.3 853.2 2,136.1 Subtotal 518.1 777.4 1,094.8 1,393.6 1,670.5 5,454.4 OUTCOME 1.2 MODERNIZED ANIMAL RESOURCES PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY 222,041.2 247,712.0 275,637.6 278,179.8 299,115.6 1,322,686.2 Output 1.2.1. Animal husbandry and infrastructure in Animal Hubs improved 115,638.8 125,382.1 130,104.6 135,009.2 140,102.9 646,237.7 1.2.1.1. Animal resources infrastructures 115,638.8 125,382.1 130,104.6 135,009.2 140,102.9 646,237.7 Establish animal resources production hubs (meat, dairy, eggs & fish) Number 1,121.1 1,164.1 1,208.8 1,255.2 1,303.5 6,052.6 Improve livestock sheds for zero-grazing policy Number 114,309.9 124,002.4 128,672.1 133,521.8 138,558.5 639,064.6 Construct boreholes Number - - - - - Rehabilitate valley dams Number - - - - - Construct modern livestock market Number 207.8 215.7 223.8 232.2 241.0 1,120.5 Subtotal 115,638.8 125,382.1 130,104.6 135,009.2 140,102.9 646,237.7 Output 1.2.2. Sustainable animal breeding established 1,320.1 3,165.9 16,157.7 417.1 903.6 21,964.4 1.2.2.1. Genetic Improvement 1,320.1 3,165.9 16,157.7 417.1 903.6 21,964.4 155 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Establish centre of excellence for animal genetics Number - - 14,545.5 - - 14,545.5 Establish breeding centres for cattle breed Number - 559.0 - - - 559.0 Establish breeding centers for pig breed Number - - 167.8 - - 167.8 Establish breeding centers for goat breed Number 779.4 - 839.2 - 903.6 2,522.2 Establish breeding centers for sheep breed Number - 377.4 - - - 377.4 Establish breeding centers for rabbit breeds Number - 161.7 - - - 161.7 Establish breeding centers for layer breed Number - 269.6 - - - 269.6 Establish breeding centers for broiler breed Number - 269.6 - - - 269.6 Establish breeding centers for dual purpose poultry breeds Number 259.8 - 279.7 - - 539.5 Introduce improved breeds bulls for dairy cattle Number 83.1 129.4 - 139.3 - 351.9 Introduce improved breeds bulls for beef Number 41.6 43.1 - 46.4 - 131.1 Introduce improved breeds for pig (boar and gilts) Number - 75.5 156.6 - - 232.1 Introduce improved breeds for goat Number of parents 25.9 - 37.2 - 63.0 Introduce improved breeds for sheep Number of parents 12.9 - 18.6 - 31.5 Introduce improved breeds for poultry Number of parents 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 - 3.4 Introduce improved breeds for rabbits Number of parents 155.9 161.7 167.8 174.2 - 659.6 156 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Establish LN2 plants and near Animal Hubs to ease logistic for AI provision Number 1,058.3 - - - 1,058.3 Create comprehensive legal framework for animal breeding and genetic management Number 21.2 - - - 21.2 Subtotal 1,320.1 3,165.9 16,157.7 417.1 903.6 21,964.4 Output 1.2.3. Access to animal feed improved 12,741.7 13,935.2 15,134.9 17,057.1 19,419.2 78,288.2 1.2.3.1. Animal feeding 12,741.7 13,935.2 15,134.9 17,057.1 19,419.2 78,288.2 Increase area under improved forage Ha 12,230.0 13,228.3 14,285.5 15,975.4 18,130.0 73,849.2 Support farmer organizations with equipment and training for feed production Number 75.4 105.8 109.9 114.1 118.5 523.7 Support forage seed multipliers including climate seed varieties Number 385.2 495.3 613.2 739.4 874.5 3,107.6 Increase access to Machinery used in fodder harvesting and processing Number 51.0 105.8 126.4 228.2 296.2 807.6 Subtotal 12,741.7 13,935.2 15,134.9 17,057.1 19,419.2 78,288.2 Output 1.2.4. Animal health systems strengthened 91,889.4 102,556.0 113,638.9 125,009.1 137,917.1 571,010.6 1.2.4.1. Animal health 91,889.4 102,556.0 113,638.9 125,009.1 137,917.1 571,010.6 Establish and strengthen the national epidemic surveillance programme Number (Report) 102.6 106.9 111.4 116.1 121.0 558.0 Establish and operationalize veterinary clinics Number 1,956.8 3,725.1 5,626.3 7,668.2 9,858.9 28,835.3 Increase proximity to private veterinary services providers Number 72,442.7 77,374.9 82,603.2 88,138.4 93,991.6 414,550.7 157 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Implement Veterinary Sanitary Mandate (VSM) Number (Report) 1,834.5 1,904.9 1,978.0 2,054.0 2,132.9 9,904.3 Vaccinate cattle Number 3,054.9 3,195.6 3,367.1 3,530.2 3,868.6 17,016.3 Vaccinate goats Number 4,327.1 5,793.2 6,875.0 7,139.1 7,876.9 32,011.2 Vaccinate sheep’s Number 1,033.2 1,404.0 1,666.1 1,730.1 1,908.9 7,742.4 Vaccinate pig Number 2,225.1 2,567.2 2,887.9 3,921.5 5,629.3 17,231.0 Vaccinate rabbit Number 59.1 135.3 448.0 645.3 859.6 2,147.2 Vaccinate poultry Number 4,853.5 6,349.0 8,076.1 10,066.3 11,669.5 41,014.3 Subtotal 91,889.4 102,556.0 113,638.9 125,009.1 137,917.1 571,010.6 Output 1.2.5. Fisheries and aquaculture developed 446.1 2,657.1 585.2 670.6 766.9 5,125.8 1.2.5.1. Fish production 446.1 2,657.1 585.2 670.6 766.9 5,125.8 Establish the National Aquaculture Research Centre Number - 2,156.6 - - - 2,156.6 Conduct capacity building of fishers, fish farmers and other value chain actors Number 52.7 68.6 81.0 89.4 103.5 395.1 Establish FFS of fish farmers Number 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.3 Establish and operationalize hatcheries Number 29.1 - - - - 29.1 Produce fingerlings for aquaculture Number - - - - - Establish aquaparks Number 363.7 431.3 503.5 580.5 662.7 2,541.7 Subtotal 446.1 2,657.1 585.2 670.6 766.9 5,125.8 Output 1.2.6. Beekeeping developed 5.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 5.8 59.5 1.2.6.1. Honey production 5.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 5.8 59.5 Establish bee queen rearing centres Number - 10.5 10.8 11.2 - 32.5 158 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Build capacities of Beekeepers Number - - - - - Increase the number of improved bee colonies in modern hives Number - - - - - Establish bee reserves Number 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 27.1 Subtotal 5.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 5.8 59.5 PRIORITY AREA 2: INCLUSIVE MARKETS AND POST-HARVEST MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS 164,932 177,909 337,169 210,636 230,523 1,121,168.8 OUTCOME 2.1 BOOSTED AGRICULTURE EXPORTS 29,837.4 25,160.9 27,627.3 29,344.2 32,475.3 144,445.1 Output 2.1.1. Export crops expanded 26,808.4 22,011.7 23,239.2 24,779.3 27,726.5 124,565.2 2.1.1.1. Increase the area under export crop production within AgriHubs 20,889.0 14,810.4 15,753.9 17,021.9 19,674.8 88,149.9 Coffee Ha 7,471.0 2,381.1 2,472.5 2,567.5 2,666.2 17,558.3 Tea Ha 5,946.4 6,174.4 6,411.4 6,657.7 7,606.3 32,796.3 Pyrethrum Ha 26.5 27.6 28.6 29.7 30.9 143.3 Essential oils Ha 186.3 193.4 200.8 208.6 216.6 1,005.7 French beans Ha 26.0 28.8 37.4 38.8 44.3 175.4 Chili (in green houses) Ha 580.0 854.3 1,267.3 1,870.9 2,771.7 7,344.2 Avocado Ha 82.0 292.6 338.5 347.5 360.8 1,421.4 Passion fruit Ha 3.2 13.4 13.9 14.5 18.8 63.8 Macadamia Ha 605.4 558.8 1,027.5 665.3 1,160.1 4,016.9 Flowers Ha 5,962.1 4,286.0 3,956.0 4,621.4 4,799.1 23,624.7 Subtotal 20,889.0 14,810.4 15,753.9 17,021.9 19,674.8 88,149.9 2.1.1.2. Operationalization of specialised AgriHubs Export handling facilities 5,715.5 5,930.5 6,165.1 6,385.8 6,626.7 30,823.6 Increase cold-chain facilities Number 5,195.9 5,391.4 5,594.4 5,805.3 6,024.3 28,011.3 159 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Establish a Traceability system in export value chains Number - - 11.2 - - 11.2 Adopt Third party certified products and systems Number 519.6 539.1 559.4 580.5 602.4 2,801.1 Subtotal 5,715.5 5,930.5 6,165.1 6,385.8 6,626.7 30,823.6 2.1.1.3. Unlock growth in export value chains to diversify exports 203.9 1,270.8 1,320.3 1,371.6 1,425.0 5,591.6 Identify potential markets for diversified export products Number - - - - - Conduct market intelligence studies Number 203.9 211.8 220.0 228.6 237.5 1,101.8 Penetrate identified markets Number - 1,059.0 1,100.2 1,143.0 1,187.5 4,489.8 Subtotal 203.9 1,270.8 1,320.3 1,371.6 1,425.0 5,591.6 Output 2.1.2. Rwandan agri- exports de-commoditized 3,029.05 3,149.12 4,388.13 4,564.85 4,748.76 19,879.9 2.1.2.1. Enhance the market share and public diplomacy 1,961.9 2,037.2 2,115.4 2,196.6 2,281.1 10,592.1 Organize trade events through economic diplomacy Number 1,019.2 1,058.3 1,098.9 1,141.1 1,185.0 5,502.4 Organize exhibitions and trade show at local, regional and international level Number 509.6 529.1 549.4 570.5 592.5 2,751.2 Initiate and sign direct supply agreements and protocols in high-value markets Number 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.6 137.6 Organize branding campaigns for Rwandan products Number 407.7 423.3 439.6 456.4 474.0 2,201.0 Subtotal 1,961.9 2,037.2 2,115.4 2,196.6 2,281.1 10,592.1 2.1.2.2. Strengthening home market for export products 1,067.1 1,112.0 2,272.8 2,368.2 2,467.7 9,287.8 160 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Organize local campaigns for home consumption and agri tourism Number 41.0 42.8 44.6 46.4 48.4 223.2 Establish facilities for exporting and domestic value addition Number 1,026.1 1,069.2 2,228.2 2,321.8 2,419.3 9,064.6 Subtotal 1,067.1 1,112.0 2,272.8 2,368.2 2,467.7 9,287.8 OUTCOME 2.2. STRENGTHENED MARKET LINKAGES AND POST-HARVEST INFRASTRUCTURE 29,369.2 41,279.9 48,616.1 54,970.5 60,604.9 234,840.6 Output 2.2.1. Organisation models of farmers and value chain actors improved 1,471.0 1,634.1 2,770.3 3,621.1 3,583.9 13,080.5 2.2.1.1. Cooperatives in AgriHubs 1,471.0 1,634.1 2,770.3 3,621.1 3,583.9 13,080.5 Support cooperatives working in AgriHubs scheme Number 917.5 953.1 1,980.4 2,743.2 2,850.1 9,444.3 Support women and youth led-cooperatives Number 76.5 79.4 165.0 228.6 - 549.5 Develop comprehensive training module on governance and management Number 30.6 31.8 33.0 34.3 35.6 165.3 Conduct training sessions per cooperative Number 81.6 84.7 88.0 91.4 95.0 440.7 Establish and coordinate new value chain platforms Number 254.9 370.7 385.1 400.1 475.0 1,885.7 Strengthen market linkages through contract farming Contracts 110.1 114.4 118.8 123.4 128.3 595.0 Subtotal 1,471.0 1,634.1 2,770.3 3,621.1 3,583.9 13,080.5 Output 2.2.2. Post-harvest handling for reduced losses improved 11,330.8 23,552.0 26,506.6 31,654.7 37,458.9 130,502.8 2.2.2.1. Post-harvest management 11,330.8 23,552.0 26,506.6 31,654.7 37,458.9 130,502.8 161 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Establish community-based facilities for post-harvest handling and local value addition, driven by private sector engagement Community based facilities 52.0 53.9 55.9 58.1 60.2 280.1 Enhance skills in post harvest management Trained farmers 752.6 879.3 1,072.1 1,280.4 1,558.6 5,543.1 Construct animal feeds factories (including fish feeds industry) Number - 4,313.1 2,237.8 2,322.1 2,409.7 11,282.7 Foster public-private partnerships to establish large-scale impact initiatives for post-harvest handling Number 41.0 42.8 66.8 92.9 121.0 364.5 Develop and implement private sector-led facilities and services aimed at enhancing market linkages for post-harvest handling Number 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 55.0 Establish and upgrade milk collection centres (MCCs) to streamline milk supply to the market Number 86.3 805.5 1,578.8 144.6 100.0 2,715.0 Establish milk collection points (MCPs) Number 166.3 172.5 179.0 185.8 192.8 896.4 Establish and upgrade Cold storage facilities Number 129.9 134.8 139.9 145.1 301.2 850.9 Increase the storage capacity of animal feeds Number (cumulative) 4,104.4 6,415.2 8,912.9 16,252.6 21,773.8 57,458.9 Strengthen MCCs as a hub to improve supply and milk collection Number - 13.9 29.0 45.3 62.9 151.0 Construct Landing sites (Fish) Number 2,338.2 2,426.1 2,517.5 1,567.4 1,626.6 10,475.8 162 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Construct fish drying flakes (small fish) Number 207.8 215.7 167.8 174.2 60.2 825.7 Establish smoking areas (fish) Number 52.0 - 55.9 - 60.2 168.1 Purchase Mobile dryers for cereals Number 1,247.0 3,234.8 3,356.7 3,483.2 4,518.2 15,839.9 Construct collection centres Number 498.8 215.7 223.8 232.2 241.0 1,411.4 Construct drying grounds Number 467.6 1,940.9 2,618.2 2,507.9 1,626.6 9,161.2 Construct drying shelters (maize and beans) Number 1,169.1 2,668.7 3,272.7 3,134.9 2,710.9 12,956.4 Procure appropriate packaging materials Number 7.6 8.4 10.8 16.7 23.0 66.6 Subtotal 11,330.8 23,552.0 26,506.6 31,654.7 37,458.9 130,502.8 Output 2.2.3. Agriculture commodity safety and quality Increased 1,231.3 106.9 2,673.9 - 1,451.6 5,463.7 2.2.3.1. Agriculture testing Facilities 1,231.3 106.9 2,673.9 - 1,451.6 5,463.7 Upgrade testing facilities for safety and quality parameters Number 1,231.3 - 2,673.9 - 1,451.6 5,356.8 Establish a traceability system Number - 106.9 - - - 106.9 Subtotal 1,231.3 106.9 2,673.9 - 1,451.6 5,463.7 Output 2.2.4. Value addition increased 13,154.8 13,669.6 14,204.7 14,761.1 15,340.2 71,130.5 2.2.4.1. Facilities for value addition 13,154.8 13,669.6 14,204.7 14,761.1 15,340.2 71,130.5 Establish and upgrade small livestock slaughter slabs Number 6,117.2 6,356.3 6,604.9 6,863.4 7,132.2 33,074.1 Establish and upgrade dairy processing facilities Number 3,976.2 4,131.6 4,293.2 4,461.2 4,635.9 21,498.2 Establish and upgrade local wholegrain flour mills Number 3,058.6 3,178.2 3,302.5 3,431.7 3,566.1 16,537.0 163 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Provide technical assistance to business operators in standardization Number 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.8 6.0 21.2 Subtotal 13,154.8 13,669.6 14,204.7 14,761.1 15,340.2 71,130.5 Output 2.2.5. Trade infrastructures improved 2,181.3 2,317.3 2,460.6 4,933.6 2,770.3 14,663.2 2.2.5.1. Aggregation and markets facilities 2,181.3 2,317.3 2,460.6 4,933.6 2,770.3 14,663.2 Establish Kigali wholesale market Number - - - 2,322.1 - 2,322.1 Strengthen animal and livestock markets Number 571.5 647.0 727.3 812.7 903.6 3,662.2 Conduct need assessment for infrastructures needs /e Number 1,558.8 1,617.4 1,678.3 1,741.6 1,807.3 8,403.4 Develop protocols for trade facilities Number 51.0 53.0 55.0 57.2 59.4 275.5 Subtotal 2,181.3 2,317.3 2,460.6 4,933.6 2,770.3 14,663.2 OUTCOME 2.3 IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION 105,725 111,469 260,925 126,321 137,442 741,883.1 Output 2.3.1. Food security and nutrition improved 2,336.8 2,558.3 2,826.4 3,153.3 3,463.9 14,338.6 2.3.1.1. Nutrition sensitive Agriculture 1,019.2 1,058.3 1,098.9 1,141.1 1,185.0 5,502.4 Facilitate the establishment of schools’ orchards and gardens Number 1,019.2 1,058.3 1,098.9 1,141.1 1,185.0 5,502.4 2.3.1.2. Produce biofortified seeds 1,317.6 1,500.0 1,727.5 2,012.2 2,278.9 8,836.2 Beans MT 357.4 425.6 498.9 577.6 662.0 2,521.3 Sweet potato MT 275.7 287.2 299.3 311.9 325.0 1,499.1 Cassava MT 204.2 212.8 221.7 231.0 240.7 1,110.4 Mushrooms MT 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.9 9.5 Potato MT 204.2 234.1 266.1 300.3 337.0 1,341.7 164 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Develop and disseminate Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) Number 275.2 338.6 439.6 588.8 711.0 2,353.2 Outreach campaigns for nutrition sensitive agriculture mainstreaming guidelines Number 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 Subtotal 1,317.6 1,500.0 1,727.5 2,012.2 2,278.9 8,836.2 Output 2.3.2. Households supported with Animal resources production (at least 30% distributed to women headed households) 5,815.5 6,945.7 8,443.3 9,693.0 11,555.1 42,452.6 2.3.2.1. Distribution of Animal resources and Vegetable seeds to families 5,815.5 6,945.7 8,443.3 9,693.0 11,555.1 42,452.6 Cows under Girinka program Number - - - - - Vegetable seeds for kitchen garden MT 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 Goats Number 1,899.2 2,164.2 2,475.5 2,947.3 3,668.3 13,154.4 Pigs Number 2,548.6 3,109.3 3,811.1 4,229.2 4,916.3 18,614.5 Sheep Number 605.5 830.3 1,048.1 1,259.1 1,495.3 5,238.3 Fruits trees Number 570.9 635.4 880.2 1,005.9 1,187.5 4,279.8 Rabbit Number 15.3 21.2 33.0 45.7 59.4 174.6 Poultry Number 175.8 185.0 195.3 205.7 228.0 989.8 Subtotal 5,815.5 6,945.7 8,443.3 9,693.0 11,555.1 42,452.6 Output 2.3.3. Food stability and mitigating related shocks ensured 97,573.1 101,964.5 249,655.7 113,475.0 122,423.5 685,091.9 2.3.3.1. Increase National Storage Grain Reserves 97,573.1 101,964.5 249,655.7 113,475.0 122,423.5 685,091.9 Strengthening Private-Led Commodity Reserves Number - - 141,961.4 - - 141,961.4 National storage capacity of food crops MT 77,938.6 80,871.1 83,916.6 87,079.4 90,364.2 420,169.9 165 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Grain storage capacity (silos) for animal feeds MT 1,291.9 1,362.4 1,541.1 1,715.9 2,044.6 7,955.8 Food stored as strategic reserve Maize MT 6,720.0 6,780.1 7,705.7 8,464.9 9,509.6 39,180.3 Beans MT 8,564.1 9,137.2 9,907.4 10,724.1 13,372.9 51,705.7 Rice MT 3,058.6 3,813.8 4,623.4 5,490.7 7,132.2 24,118.8 Soya MT - - - - - Subtotal 97,573.1 101,964.5 249,655.7 113,475.0 122,423.5 685,091.9 PRIORITY AREA 3: STRENGTHENING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS ENABLERS FOR EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT DELIVERY 266,152.6 262,830.8 311,050.2 325,164.4 366,592.0 1,531,789.9 OUTCOME 3.1 STRENGTHENED RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER FOR AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS 162,025.4 151,605.4 184,545.2 165,053.9 197,414.3 860,644.3 Output 3.1.1. Demand-driven research enhanced 67,308.6 48,299.6 76,687.8 51,961.4 78,324.4 322,581.8 3.1.1.1. Develop Climate resilient and disease resistant varieties 21,143.4 18.8 22,808.3 34.8 24,546.9 68,552.1 Maize Number - 10.7 - 11.6 - 22.3 Rice Number 5.2 - 5.6 - 6.0 16.8 Wheat Number 36.2 - 16.7 5.8 6.0 64.8 Cassava Number - 5.4 - 2.9 - 8.3 Irish potato Number 2.6 - 8.4 - - 11.0 Sweet potato Number 2.6 - - 8.7 - 11.3 Beans Number - - 12.6 - - 12.6 Soybean Number - - 12.6 - - 12.6 Banana Number - - 2.8 - - 2.8 Horticulture (fruits) Number - 2.7 2.8 5.8 6.0 17.3 Coffee Number 7,032.3 - 7,582.3 - 8,176.3 22,790.9 166 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Tea Number 7,032.3 - 7,582.3 - 8,176.3 22,790.9 Pyrethrum Number 7,032.3 - 7,582.3 - 8,176.3 22,790.9 Subtotal 21,143.4 18.8 22,808.3 34.8 24,546.9 68,552.1 3.1.1.1.2. Develop new animal breeds 112.1 254.0 263.7 296.7 296.2 1,222.8 Goat Number 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.7 110.0 Sheep Number - 21.2 - 22.8 - 44.0 Pig Number 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.7 110.0 Layer poultry Number - - 11.0 - - 11.0 Broiler poultry Number - - - 11.4 11.8 23.3 Dual poultry Number - 10.6 - - 11.8 22.4 New dairy Number - 52.9 54.9 57.1 59.2 224.2 New beef Number 51.0 105.8 109.9 114.1 118.5 499.3 Rabbits Number 20.4 21.2 44.0 45.6 47.4 178.5 Produce research products in bee genetics Number - - - - - Subtotal 112.1 254.0 263.7 296.7 296.2 1,222.8 3.1.1.1.3. Develop new production technologies 19,568.8 20,402.9 22,600.1 21,691.3 22,312.6 106,575.7 Upgrade research stations Number 15,859.7 16,362.8 16,882.2 17,418.3 17,971.7 84,494.7 Develop confined facilities Number - - 1,678.3 - - 1,678.3 Establish screen house facilities Number 3,453.9 3,563.5 3,676.6 3,793.3 3,913.9 18,401.2 Construction of Greenhouse facilities Number - - - - - Develop databases for National soil and crop information system Number - 31.7 - - - 31.7 167 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Develop integrated soil fertility mgt technologies Number 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.2 24.1 112.0 Produce fertilizer recommendations per crop Number 61.2 63.5 - 68.5 71.1 264.2 Develop new bio-fertilizer technologies Number - 21.2 - 22.8 - 44.0 Develop biotechnology products Number - 52.9 54.9 57.1 59.2 224.2 Develop improved manure management technologies Number - 21.2 22.0 - 47.4 90.5 Develop fodder/animal feed technologies Number 40.8 21.2 65.9 45.6 47.4 220.9 Develop crop management technologies/innovations Number 40.8 42.3 44.0 45.6 47.4 220.1 Develop new efficient water use technologies Number - 21.2 - 22.8 - 44.0 Develop New climate smart techniques Number - 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.7 89.7 Develop diagnostic tools for quick detection of major diseases /d Number 30.6 31.7 33.0 34.2 35.5 165.1 Develop early warning systems for pests and diseases Number - - 33.0 - - 33.0 Develop new pest/disease control and IPM packages for crops Number 61.2 127.0 65.9 136.9 71.1 462.1 Conduct pest and disease surveillance Number - - - - - Subtotal 19,568.8 20,402.9 22,600.1 21,691.3 22,312.6 106,575.7 3.1.1.1.4. Develop post-harvest technologies 20.4 21.2 44.0 22.8 23.7 132.0 Develop technologies for value addition Number 20.4 - 22.0 - 23.7 66.1 168 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Develop technologies for post-harvest handling Number - 21.2 - 22.8 - 44.0 Develop food waste management technologies Number - - 22.0 - - 22.0 Subtotal 20.4 21.2 44.0 22.8 23.7 132.0 3.1.1.1.5. Conservation of genetic resources 24,670.0 25,628.6 28,861.0 27,661.0 28,738.0 135,558.6 Conserve local cattle breeds Number - - - - - Characterize and conserve Local poultry breeds Number - - - - - Conserve local cattle breeds Number - - - - - Upgrade the National Genebank Number (Report) - - 2,235.9 - - 2,235.9 Establish of National Collection of Microbial Genetic Resources Number of accessions 2,038.8 2,118.1 2,200.4 2,286.0 2,375.0 11,018.4 Collect, characterize and conserve plant genetic resources Number 9,786.4 10,166.7 10,562.0 10,973.0 11,400.2 52,888.3 Collect, characterize and conserve forage genetic resources Number 9,786.4 10,166.7 10,562.0 10,973.0 11,400.2 52,888.3 Collect, characterize and conserve local animal genetic resources Number 3,058.3 3,177.1 3,300.6 3,429.1 3,562.6 16,527.6 Subtotal 24,670.0 25,628.6 28,861.0 27,661.0 28,738.0 135,558.6 3.1.1.1.6. Promotion of private - led research 1,794.0 1,974.2 2,110.7 2,254.8 2,407.0 10,540.7 Acquire patents from researchers on new technologies Number 254.8 264.6 274.7 285.3 296.2 1,375.6 Develop new technologies in partnership with the private sector Number - 105.8 164.8 228.2 296.2 795.1 169 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Organize and coordinate research day Number 1,539.2 1,603.8 1,671.2 1,741.4 1,814.5 8,370.0 Subtotal 1,794.0 1,974.2 2,110.7 2,254.8 2,407.0 10,540.7 Output 3.1.2. Customized Agriculture Extension System Enhanced 84,929.5 88,467.1 91,941.0 96,034.0 100,821.4 462,193.0 3.1.2.1. Customized extension packages in each value chains 739.2 338.2 - - - 1,077.3 Profiling food crops value chains Number 254.9 - - - - 254.9 Profiling animal resources value chains Number 203.9 - - - - 203.9 Profiling horticulture value chains Number 203.9 - - - - 203.9 Develop customized extension package for each value chain Number - 338.2 - - - 338.2 Conduct a study on extension services providers in the country Number 30.6 - - - - 30.6 Certify extension professionals Number - - - - - Establish a digital system of professional licensed extension providers Number 45.9 - - - - 45.9 Subtotal 739.2 338.2 - - - 1,077.3 3.1.2.2. Capacity development and quality certification 83,945.7 87,874.7 91,676.8 95,759.4 100,536.1 459,792.7 Conduct need assessment for extension services providers in prioritized value chains Number 23.4 - - - - 23.4 170 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Train master trainers on specific value chain and their segments /e Number 2,417.8 2,519.3 2,625.1 2,735.4 2,850.3 13,147.8 Train front-line extension agents (such as FFS facilitators, FPs) on the delivery of new extension packages /f Number 3,488.8 3,635.3 3,899.4 4,295.3 5,230.6 20,549.3 Support Livestock Farmer Field School (L-FFS) that provides Extension Advisory Services (TWIGIRE MWOROZI) Number 820.9 1,283.0 1,336.9 1,393.1 1,451.6 6,285.5 Establish L-FFS groups by L FFS Facilitators Number 153.9 160.4 167.1 174.1 181.4 837.0 Support Livestock Farmer Field School (L-FFS) Facilitators Number 380.6 396.6 413.3 430.6 448.7 2,069.9 Establish FFS on fish farming Number - - - - - Train aquaculture and fisheries master trainers Number 8,208.8 8,553.6 8,912.9 9,287.2 9,677.3 44,639.8 Support farmer promoters with basic package Number 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.1 83.7 Support Crop FFS Facilitators Number 200.1 208.5 217.3 226.4 235.9 1,088.1 Establish demonstration plots Number 68,236.0 71,101.9 74,088.2 77,199.9 80,442.3 371,068.2 Subtotal 83,945.7 87,874.7 91,676.8 95,759.4 100,536.1 459,792.7 3.1.2.3. Strengthen partnership between private sector, government, and knowledge institutions 244.7 254.3 264.2 274.5 285.3 1,323.0 Establish platforms of extension providers and Number 81.6 84.8 88.1 91.5 95.1 441.0 171 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total scientists to identify research and capacity needs Develop research and capacity building agenda for centres of excellence Number 163.1 169.5 176.1 183.0 190.2 882.0 Subtotal 244.7 254.3 264.2 274.5 285.3 1,323.0 Output 3.1.3. Technical Capacity, Education, and Skills Developed 9,787.3 14,838.7 15,916.5 17,058.5 18,268.5 75,869.5 3.1.3.1. Enhance knowledge and skills in Agriculture related interventions 9,787.3 14,838.7 15,916.5 17,058.5 18,268.5 75,869.5 Train youth and professional farmers on technical courses by education institutions and other relevant specialized institutions Number 628.3 945.7 1,288.7 1,658.7 2,057.6 6,579.1 Organize long term training in Agri-food systems (Masters & PhDs) Number 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.6 53.6 Organize on-job specialized and professional short courses in the Agri-food systems Number 69.8 72.7 75.8 79.0 82.3 379.7 Undertake curricula review in collaboration with relevant specialized institutions Number 51.3 53.5 55.7 58.0 60.5 279.0 Upgrade schools with facilities to train in Agri-food related disciplines Number 51.3 53.5 55.7 58.0 60.5 279.0 Upscale industrial attachment programs to private sector (50% women) Number 69.7 145.2 302.5 472.9 657.0 1,647.3 Provide youth with training, mentorship, and start-up packages (50 % women) Number 698.2 727.5 758.0 789.9 823.1 3,796.6 172 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Farmer field schools (crops and animal resources) Number 8,208.8 12,830.4 13,369.3 13,930.8 14,515.9 62,855.3 Subtotal 9,787.3 14,838.7 15,916.5 17,058.5 18,268.5 75,869.5 OUTCOME 3.2 STRENGTHENED AGRICULTURE DE-RISKING FOR RESILIENCE 54,208.6 59,131.5 72,315.4 103,753.0 116,182.8 405,591.2 Output 3.2.1. Access to Agriculture Finance increased 3,956.4 6,835.4 8,009.4 9,183.2 10,772.6 38,757.0 3.2.1.1 De-risking facility 3,956.4 6,835.4 8,009.4 9,183.2 10,772.6 38,757.0 Establish credit guarantee facility Number - 1,595.8 1,662.8 1,732.7 1,805.5 6,796.8 Establish grant facility for infrastructure development Number - 106.4 110.9 115.5 120.4 453.1 Establish grant facility for market linkages and technology development Number - 106.4 110.9 115.5 120.4 453.1 Agri-finance products developed Number 2,552.5 2,659.7 2,771.4 2,887.8 3,009.1 13,880.5 Digital farmer profiles and transaction histories stored Number 255.3 531.9 1,108.6 1,732.7 3,009.1 6,637.5 Conduct financial literacy campaigns targeting farmers and other relevant stakeholders Number 1,148.6 1,835.2 2,244.8 2,599.0 2,708.2 10,535.9 Subtotal 3,956.4 6,835.4 8,009.4 9,183.2 10,772.6 38,757.0 Output 3.2.2. Agriculture Insurance Scheme strengthened 50,252.2 52,296.0 64,306.1 94,569.8 105,410.2 366,834.2 3.2.2.1 Crop and Animal resource insurance 50,252.2 52,296.0 64,306.1 94,569.8 105,410.2 366,834.2 Develop and operationalize guidelines for insurance products Lumpsum 7,927.9 - - - - 7,927.9 Monitoring compliance with contracts between farmers and insurance firms Lumpsum 51.0 - - - - 51.0 Insure area under rice Ha 226.2 235.2 244.4 256.1 268.3 1,230.1 173 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Insure area under maize Ha 201.9 244.7 290.6 339.7 392.3 1,469.2 Insure area under Irish potatoes Ha 209.0 346.6 494.6 653.6 824.5 2,528.3 Insure area under soya bean Ha 17.5 34.2 52.1 71.4 92.1 267.3 Insure area under beans Ha 30.3 59.2 90.4 123.8 159.8 463.5 Insure area under cassava Ha 28.3 58.8 91.7 127.0 165.0 470.8 Insure area under chilli Ha 23.7 41.9 61.5 82.6 105.2 315.0 Insure area under French beans Ha 17.4 34.5 52.9 72.6 93.9 271.3 Insure cattle Number 15,222.2 17,654.8 20,206.4 24,004.8 26,320.2 103,408.4 Insure pig Number 6,595.3 8,166.6 12,105.9 18,838.7 21,082.3 66,788.8 Insure poultry Number 560.2 759.7 922.6 1,218.7 1,363.8 4,825.0 Insure fishponds/farms Number 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.3 6.4 15.9 Insure rabbits Number 13,479.8 17,777.7 21,495.9 39,171.4 43,836.7 135,761.4 Train professionals on agriculture insurance Number 5,660.7 6,880.5 8,194.4 9,604.9 10,699.7 41,040.2 Subtotal 50,252.2 52,296.0 64,306.1 94,569.8 105,410.2 366,834.2 OUTCOME 3.3. DIGITISED AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS 40,644.4 42,943.8 44,667.6 46,473.6 42,410.2 217,139.7 Output 3.3.1. Affordable digital technologies developed 20,635.4 21,971.7 22,831.0 23,724.6 24,653.7 113,816.3 3.3.1.1. Device access and connectivity 20,635.4 21,971.7 22,831.0 23,724.6 24,653.7 113,816.3 Support farmers owning smartphones or other relevant devices through partnerships with telcos Number 40.8 42.4 44.0 45.8 47.5 220.5 Subsidize agriculture services on digital transaction fees Number 203.9 211.9 220.2 228.8 237.7 1,102.5 174 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Build and maintain the Agricultural Management Information System (AMIS) Number 20,390.7 21,187.7 22,016.4 22,878.1 23,774.0 110,247.0 Host agriculture services in the data centre (OCI) Number - 529.7 550.4 572.0 594.4 2,246.4 Subtotal 20,635.4 21,971.7 22,831.0 23,724.6 24,653.7 113,816.3 Output 3.3.2. Data governance enhanced 16,067.9 16,706.5 17,348.9 18,039.4 12,790.4 80,953.1 3.3.2.1. Agriculture data management 16,067.9 16,706.5 17,348.9 18,039.4 12,790.4 80,953.1 Develop data Strategy and governance framework Number - 10.6 - - - 10.6 Build a scalable data network with incentives Number 10,195.4 10,593.9 11,008.2 11,439.0 11,887.0 55,123.5 Invest in innovative technologies and methods such as crowdsourcing, Camera-equipped drones, and high-resolution satellite imagery to gather data more efficiently and timely Number 5,097.7 5,296.9 5,504.1 5,719.5 - 21,618.2 Mobilize new data collection agents and farmer promoters including youth onboarded to support quality data collection through GOR and private sector Number 764.7 794.5 825.6 857.9 891.5 4,134.3 Develop Integrated decision support dashboards Number 10.2 10.6 11.0 22.9 11.9 66.6 Subtotal 16,067.9 16,706.5 17,348.9 18,039.4 12,790.4 80,953.1 Output 3.3.3. Digital innovation in agriculture value chains promoted 3,364.5 3,496.0 3,632.7 3,774.9 3,922.7 18,190.8 3.3.3.1 Agritech Innovation Pipeline 3,364.5 3,496.0 3,632.7 3,774.9 3,922.7 18,190.8 175 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Digitize and operationalize agriculture services Number 1,019.5 1,059.4 1,100.8 1,143.9 1,188.7 5,512.3 Digitalize value chains systems Number 51.0 53.0 55.0 57.2 59.4 275.6 Facilitate farmers and traders to access local and international markets though e-commerce Number 1,019.5 1,059.4 1,100.8 1,143.9 1,188.7 5,512.3 Registor of farmers & livestock through Agriculture Management Information System (AMIS) Number 1,274.4 1,324.2 1,376.0 1,429.9 1,485.9 6,890.4 Subtotal 3,364.5 3,496.0 3,632.7 3,774.9 3,922.7 18,190.8 Output 3.3.4. Digital competencies developed 454.3 578.6 601.8 626.0 651.1 2,911.7 3.3.4.1. Enhance digital literacy 454.3 578.6 601.8 626.0 651.1 2,911.7 Train digital ambassadors, farmer promoters, extension workers, and village elders in digital literacy Number 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 10.5 Train Farmers in digital literacy and using digital services Number 197.5 205.8 214.4 223.4 232.8 1,073.9 Establish youth led hanga hubs Number - 105.9 110.1 114.4 118.9 449.3 Develop value chain digital literacy modules Number 254.9 264.8 275.2 286.0 297.2 1,378.1 Subtotal 454.3 578.6 601.8 626.0 651.1 2,911.7 Output 3.3.5. Sustainable business models for digital systems and platforms developed 112.1 180.5 242.2 297.4 380.4 1,212.6 3.3.5.1 Upgrade and develop digital systems 112.1 180.5 242.2 297.4 380.4 1,212.6 176 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Develop and implement a digital financial strategy /framework for agriculture, aiming to increase the percentage of farmers utilizing mobile banking, wallets, and credit platforms Number - 0.4 - - - 0.4 Initiate business models for digital platforms Number - 10.6 11.0 - 11.9 33.5 Mobilize investors through public-private partnerships in digital agriculture projects within a defined timeframe Number 61.2 63.6 66.0 68.6 71.3 330.7 Mobilize technical experts to support implementation of development partner funded projects implementation Number 51.0 105.9 165.1 228.8 297.2 848.0 Subtotal 112.1 180.5 242.2 297.4 380.4 1,212.6 Output 3.3.6. Digitalization Networking Strengthened 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.9 55.1 3.3.6.1 Reinforce coordination for agriculture digitalization 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.9 55.1 Establish a cross-cutting Digital Agriculture Working Group Number 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 27.6 Establish a National Digital Agriculture Task Force Number 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 27.6 Subtotal 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.9 55.1 OUTCOME 3.4 STRENGTHENED AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS PLANNING AND COORDINATION 9,274.2 9,150.1 9,521.9 9,883.9 10,584.7 48,414.7 Output 3.4.1. Capacity for planning and knowledge management enhanced 7,053.5 7,001.3 7,288.9 7,588.4 8,021.2 36,953.2 3.4.1.1. Strengthen public sector capacity to design impactful programs 7,053.5 7,001.3 7,288.9 7,588.4 8,021.2 36,953.2 177 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total Establish a Programme designing Unit Lumpsum 609.5 628.8 648.8 669.4 690.7 3,247.3 Design programmes Number 492.5 171.1 178.3 185.7 193.5 1,221.1 Develop projects designed as PPP, public, or private prepared and funded Number 718.3 748.4 779.9 812.6 967.7 4,026.9 Public sector capacity building programme Number 3,694.0 3,849.1 4,010.8 4,179.2 4,354.8 20,087.9 Number of staff trained in core and emerging topics Number 1,539.2 1,603.8 1,671.2 1,741.4 1,814.5 8,370.0 Subtotal 7,053.5 7,001.3 7,288.9 7,588.4 8,021.2 36,953.2 Output 3.4.2. Agri-food systems coordination and value chains developed 1,129.1 1,225.9 1,383.7 1,552.0 1,790.9 7,081.6 3.4.2.1. Coordination for Agri-food system stakeholders 1,129.1 1,225.9 1,383.7 1,552.0 1,790.9 7,081.6 Design business plans for value chain development packaged for entrepreneurs Number 407.8 423.8 440.3 457.6 475.5 2,204.9 Establish value Chain Platforms Number 356.8 423.8 550.4 686.3 891.5 2,908.9 Establish transparent governance structure for agri-PPDs Number 51.0 53.0 55.0 57.2 59.4 275.6 Organize meetings with regional value chain platforms to establish linkages Number 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.9 41.3 Establish Food systems Secretariat Number 305.8 317.5 329.7 342.3 355.5 1,650.8 Subtotal 1,129.1 1,225.9 1,383.7 1,552.0 1,790.9 7,081.6 Output 3.4.3. Policy and regulatory reform for an enabling environment reviewed 407.8 423.8 440.3 457.6 475.5 2,204.9 178 Priority Area Outcome Output Key Interventions Activities Unit Budget Estimates (RWF Million) 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 Total 3.4.3.1. Review policy and strategic documents 407.8 423.8 440.3 457.6 475.5 2,204.9 Set-up a taskforce to review regulatory bottlenecks Number 102.0 105.9 110.1 114.4 118.9 551.2 Review regulatory bottlenecks Number 102.0 105.9 110.1 114.4 118.9 551.2 Organize a stakeholder consultation on regulatory review needs conducted Number 203.9 211.9 220.2 228.8 237.7 1,102.5 Subtotal 407.8 423.8 440.3 457.6 475.5 2,204.9 Output 3.4.4. Institutional reforms for effective implementation enhanced 683.8 499.1 408.9 286.0 297.2 2,175.0 3.4.4.1. Modernize Institutional Framework 683.8 499.1 408.9 286.0 297.2 2,175.0 Conduct institutional review in light of PSTA5 Number 51.0 - - - - 51.0 Undertake institutional restructuring based on the review Number - 105.9 - - - 105.9 Establish National CAES Secretariat Number 509.8 - - - - 509.8 Establish Rwanda Forum for Agricultural extension and Advisory Service professionals Number - 238.4 247.7 257.4 267.5 1,010.9 Introduce improved digital processes and systems for more efficient food systems planning Number - 26.5 27.5 28.6 29.7 112.3 Establish PSTA 5 Coordination Program (Program 5) Amount 123.1 128.3 133.7 - - 385.1 Subtotal 683.8 499.1 408.9 286.0 297.2 2,175.0 179 180 References AfDB. (n.d.). Africa Digital Transformation Action Plan (2022-2026). Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa. (2023). Africa Agriculture Status Report. Austin, K., Beach, R., Lapidus, D., Salem, M., Taylor, N., Knudsen, M., & Ujeneza, N. (2020). 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