Economic Sustainability Plan, 2020

1. Immediate Fiscal Measures……………………………………………………………………………………... 31

2. Fiscal Measures to safeguard Oil Revenues……………………………………………………………… 32 3. Fiscal Measures to mobilise and preserve non-Oil Revenues…………………………………… 33

4. Fiscal Measures reduce non-Essential Spending ………………………………………………………. 33

5. Monetary Policy Measures ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 34

6. Measures to mobilise External Support and Funding …….…………………………………….…… 35

7. Measures to collaborate with and support the States …………………………………………...... 35

8. Measures requiring Legislative Support …………………………………………………………………... 36

9. Cross-cutting imperatives for a post-COVID Economic Recovery ……………………………... 37 Real Sector Measures ……..……..……..……..……..…….……..……..……..……..……..……..……................ 38

10. Food for All: Agriculture and Food Security …………………………………………………………….... 39

11. Jobs through Homes: Mass Housing Strategy …………………………………………………………. 41

12. Energy for All: Solar Power Strategy ………………………………………………………………………… 44

13. Jobs for Youth and Women post-COVID ……..………………………………………………………….... 45

14. The Future of Work – Strategy for Jobs in Technology ……………………………………………… 47

15. The National Gas Expansion Programme(NGEP) ………………………………………………… 49 16. Supporting Small Businesses: Guaranteed Offtake Scheme for MSMEs; SME Survival Fund; SME Intervention Funds; MSME Regulatory Support ……………….... 52 17. Moving People and Goods: Road Construction and Rehabilitation ……………………….…. 58

18. Building a Resilient Health Sector …………………………………………………………………………….. 60

19. WASH Emergency Response to COVID…………...………………………………………….................. 62

20. Social Investment Programmes …………………………………………………….......................... 63 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 3

21. Aviation ................................................................................................................................... 64

22. Ensuring Continuous Learning – Education ………………...…………………………………............ 65

23. Science and Technology ………………………………………………………………................................. 67

24. Internal Security Sector………………………………………………………...………………………………….. 68

25. Solid Minerals …..…………………………………………………...………………………………………………… 69

26. Digital Switch Over Programme ………………………………………………………....................... 71 Delivering the Plan ….........………………………………………………………………………………………............. 73 Delivery Elements ………………………………………………………...…………………………………………………... 73 Implementation Framework ………………………………………………………............................................. 73 4 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan List of Abbreviations FERMA Federal Roads Maintenance Agency AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AfDB African Development Bank FCCPC Federal Competition and Consumer Protection ASM Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining Commission ASO Analogue Switch Off FIRS Federal Inland Revenue Service BHCPF Basic Healthcare Provision Fund FCT Federal Capital Territory BPO Business Process Outsourcing GOEs Government-Owned Enterprises BOI Bank of Industry IDP Internally Displaced Person BVN Bank Verification Number IMF International Monetary Fund CAC Corporate Affairs Commission IPPIS Integrated Personnel and Payroll Information System CBN Central Bank of Nigeria ISPO Irrevocable Standing Payment Order CCT Conditional Cash Transfer LGA Local Government Area CIT Company Income Tax LPG Liquified Gas CKD Completely Knocked Down MDA Ministry, Department and Agency CNG Compressed Natural Gas MSMEs Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease NAFDAC National Agency for Food and Drug Administration DPR Department of Petroleum Resources and Control DSO Digital Switch Over NASENI National Agency for Science and Engineering ERGP Economic Recovery and Growth Plan Infrastructure ESC Economic Sustainability Committee NBC National Broadcasting Corporation ESP Economic Sustainability Plan NBS National Bureau of Statistics FAAC Federation Account Allocation Committee NEHF National Emergency Health Fund Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 5 NEXIM Nigerian Export Import Bank SHAROW-MIP Stakeholders Assisted Right of Way NCC Nigerian Communications Commission Maintenance Intervention Programme NCS Nigeria Customs Service SHFS Smallholder farmers NGEP National Gas Expansion Programme NPK Fertiliser SIFTAS States Fiscal, Transparency, Accountability and NLNG Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited Sustainability NNPC Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics NSCDC Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps TETFUND Tertiary Education Trust Fund NSIA Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority UBEC Universal Basic Education Commission NYSC National Youth Service Corps VAT Value Added Tax NSITF Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene OOSC Out of School Children WHO World Health Organisation PAYE Pay as You Earn P4R Payment for Results PEWASH Partnership for Expanded Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene PMO Project Management Office PFI Presidential Fertiliser Initiative PTDF Petroleum Technology Development Fund R & D Research and Development REDISSE Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement RITCS Road Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme SAIPZ Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones 6 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Executive Other Ministers Co-opted: Summary (i) (ii) Hon. Minister of Agriculture & Rural Development; Hon. Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Introduction Management & Social Affairs; (iii) Hon. Minister of Works & Housing; Following the health and economic emergencies caused by the (iv) Hon. Minister, Aviation; COVID-19 pandemic, His Excellency, President Muhammadu Buhari (v) Hon. Minister, Communication & Digital Economy; established the Economic Sustainability Committee (ESC) on March (vi) Hon. Minister, Education; 30, 2020. (vii) Hon. Minister, Health; Membership of the Committee (viii) Hon. Minister, Interior; (ix) Hon. Minister, Science & Technology; and Membership of the Committee consists of: (x) Hon. Minister of Transportation. (i) His Excellency, the Vice President; (ii) Hon. Minister, Finance, Budget & National Planning; (iii) Hon. Minister of State, Budget and National Planning; Terms of Reference (iv) Hon. Minister, Industry Trade & Investment; (i) Develop a clear Economic Sustainability Plan in response to (v) Hon. Minister, Labour and Employment; challenges posed by the COVID-19 Pandemic; (vi) Hon. Minister of State, Petroleum Resources; (vii) Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria; (ii) Identify fiscal measures for enhancing distributable oil and (viii) Group Managing Director, NNPC; and gas revenue, increasing non-oil revenues and reducing non- essential spending, towards securing sufficient (ix) Permanent Secretary, Cabinet Office - Secretary resources to fund the plan; Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 7 (iii) Propose monetary policy measures in support of the Plan; Briefing of State Governors (iv) Provide a Fiscal/Monetary Stimulus Package, including As members of the National Economic Council and major stake- support to private businesses (with emphasis on strategic holders, State Governors were fully briefed on how the implemen- sectors most affected by the pandemic) and vulnerable tation of the Plan would necessarily entail their full collaboration, segments of the population; especially the mass agriculture, mass housing, broadband connec- tivity, domestic solar projects, etc. The Governors also submitted (v) Articulate specific measures to support the States and FCT; their views and contributions to the development of the Plan. (vi) Propose a clear-cut strategy to keep existing jobs and create Consultative Session with the leadership of the opportunities for new ones; and National Assembly (vii) Identify measures that may require legislative support to The Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives deliver the Plan. led principal officers of the National Assembly in meeting with mem- bers of the ESC. After the draft Sustainability Plan was presented to them, the legislators commended its strategic approach and made Consultation of Other Stakeholders some recommendations, which are to be taken into consideration in implementing the plan. Consultation with the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (EAC) Other Plans Incorporated in the Proposed Economic Sustainability Plan: Apart from the FEC Members and Agency CEOs consulted by the (i) The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) Committee, the ESC also met with the members of the Presiden- tial Economic Advisory Council and subsequently exchanged corre- (ii) Report of the Economic Crisis Committee (headed by the spondence with them on the policy thrust and some particular as- Hon. Minister of Finance, Budget & National Planning) pects of the draft Sustainability Plan, including its implementation strategy. (iii) The Finance Act 2019; and (iv) Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Proposals. 8 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan allocations to FAAC was N669.9 bn monthly. The very steep decline in revenues available for sharing among governments of the feder- ation will have serious implications for wages, overheads and capi- tal expenditures at Federal, State and Local Government levels. Unemployment rate which was 23.1% (or 20.9m people) at the end of 2018 is expected to rise to 33.6% (or 39.4 million people) at the end of 2020, if urgent steps are not taken. The major problem with unemployment of a very large youth population is the hopelessness BASIS OF THE PLAN that gives rise to criminal activities and anti-social behavior, which can ultimately create potential recruits into the ranks of insurgents. Immediate Challenges of the COVID-19 Pandemic Even for those able to earn a living, the situation is dire. The NBS re- The COVID-19 pandemic has created severe Economic consequenc- cently released a household survey of poverty in Nigeria, a five-year es for all countries around the world. Nigeria has also been very study which showed that over 40% of Nigerian households earn badly hit. The lockdowns have frozen economic activities, caus- less than N137,000 per annum. This is barely N11,000 per month. ing massive job losses and supply chain disruptions. It has also With the COVID crisis, this poor income will drop much further. depressed the demand for crude oil and precipitated an unprece- dented oil price crash. Nigeria’s dependence on oil for revenue and Given these indices, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) projects foreign exchange makes it particularly vulnerable in this situation. that economic growth could fall by as much as minus 4.40% to mi- nus 8.91% depending on the length of the lockdown period, the po- It is expected that if oil prices average $30 over the rest of the year, tency of the economic plans that are put in place, and, in particular, oil revenues (assuming Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation the amount of stimulus spending. reduces Joint Venture operating costs by 20%), would amount to about N88.4 billion monthly. Assuming that non-oil revenues are The time-tested approach to fighting a recession is a stimulus pack- sustained at the lower level projected in the revised budget esti- age. The size of the stimulus package will usually determine how mates, the total allocations to FAAC for the rest of the year would shallow or deep the recession would turn out to be. We asked the then be around N485 billion a month. This time last year total NBS to give us a model of what the macro implications of four sce- Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 9 narios would be if we had the good fortune for oil prices to average agro-allied jobs, with a scheme for guaranteeing off-take of farm at $30 per barrel in 2020. produce. This ensures that farmers are assured of an income. Oth- er signature programmes include mass social housing, using local (i) Scenario 1: With no stimulus, i.e., if we simply stick to our materials, installing solar power in 5 million homes, and providing budget the economy will decline by minus 4.40% at best. assistance to daily-paid and self-employed workers – petty trad- ers, artisans like bricklayers, vulcanisers, and electricians as well as (ii) Scenario 2: With a stimulus of just N500 billion, the economy commercial drivers and barrow-pushers. will decline by minus 1.94%. Many businesses have suffered severe losses due to the lockdowns (iii) Scenario 3: With a stimulus of N2.3 trillion, the economic and have had to decide on laying off staff, we have developed a decline will be lower at minus 0.59%. strategy to ensure that as many as possible do not collapse and are able to retain their staff. For other businesses - aviation, hotels (iv) Scenario 4. With a stimulus of N3.6 trillion there will still , private schools, restaurants, finding it difficult to continue making be negative growth but only of -0.42% loan repayments to banks, we have developed a scheme for the restructuring of their loans. For the extremely poor and vulnerable, Given our low level of revenues and the importance of monetary we have increased support available under the Social Investment stability, we settled for a stimulus package of N2.3 trillion, which Programme. raises the question: How will this funded? This amount will be fund- ed by N500bn from Special Accounts, N1.11 trillion of CBN struc- General Objectives of the Plan tured lending and N302.9bn from other funding sources. (i) To stimulate the economy by preventing business collapse The second issue is the strategy. We decided that the best way to and ensuring liquidity; beat the triple problem of very low foreign exchange, huge unem- ployment and negative growth is by focusing on Mr. President’s (ii) retain or create jobs using labour intensive methods in key mantra to produce what we eat and eat what we produce. areas like agriculture, facility maintenance, housing and direct labour interventions; This meant focusing on agriculture, increasing the acreage under cultivation and engaging thousands of young people in farming and (iii) undertake growth enhancing and job creating infrastructural 10 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan investments in roads, bridges, solar power, and on achieving value for money. The overriding objective is to keep communications technologies; the economy active through carefully calibrated regulatory inter- ventions designed to de-risk the environment for local production (iv) promote manufacturing and local production at all levels and and enterprise, galvanise external sources of funding, rationalise advocate the use of Made in Nigeria goods and services, as a existing debt obligations and boost investments in strategic sectors way of creating job opportunities, achieving self-sufficiency affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, while supporting the financial in critical sectors of our economy and curbing unnecessary viability of State Governments. demand for foreign exchange which might put pressure on the exchange rate; and (v) extend protection to the very poor and other vulnerable groups – including women and persons living with disabilities - through pro-poor spending. This plan is based on three pillars The first pillar consists of “Real Sector Measures”, and comprises a mix of project and policy approaches, which focus on the creation of jobs across the fields of agriculture and agro- processing, food security, housing construction, renewable energy, infrastructure, The “third pillar is Implementation”. This is the key to the suc- manufacturing and the digital economy. The aim is to safeguard cess of the plan. Each Minister will be responsible for supervising existing micro, small and medium scale businesses while ramping the implementation of plans situated in their Ministry through a up local productive capacity by encouraging opportunities for inno- ministerial implementation Committee chaired by the Minister. The vation in the various sectors. Ministerial Committee will be responsible for ensuring synergy be- tween stakeholders, especially the public and private sector. The The second, “Fiscal and Monetary Measures”, outlines steps Committees shall also drive the execution of specific projects, co- that will be taken to maximise government revenue, optimise ex- ordinate the entire sectorial value chain and ensure resolution of penditure and enshrine a regime of prudence with an emphasis bottlenecks impeding implementation. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 11 The Economic Sustainability Committee, which is an inter-Minis- will be incentivised to engage in farming and agro-processing, as terial Committee, will be responsible for general oversight of im- that is a field in which Nigeria has comparative advantage. The Hon plementation and will report to the President. Expenditure will be Minister of Agriculture and the CBN Governor have agreed a de- monitored through the National M&E Framework and the Budget tailed plan of action in this regard. Office of the Federation. (ii) Extensive Public Works and Road Construction Proposed Key Projects Programme (focusing on both major and rural roads) As the country cannot afford to continue with the importation of Key projects put forward by relevant Ministries to sustain econom- bitumen for road construction, emphasis will now be on the use of ic activity, boost production, create the maximum number of jobs locally available materials like limestone, cement and granite. Op- possible and save foreign exchange include – tions have been explored for using these materials in major Federal highways. Similarly, a significant number of workers can be engaged (i) A Mass Agricultural Programme: in the construction of rural roads using stones and other materials available locally. The Hon. Minister of Works and Housing is devel- oping the engineering concept and template for this approach in order to assist the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, which is responsible for rural roads. (iii) Mass Housing Programme: This programme is expected to deliver up to 300,000 homes annu- ally, engaging young professionals and artisans who form them- selves into small and medium scale businesses within the con- struction industry. Such enterprises will use indigenous labour and materials working on dedicated housing sites. For instance doors, This is expected to bring between 20,000 and 100,000 hectares of windows and other materials will be produced, finished or assem- new farmland under cultivation in every State of the Federation. bled at mass housing construction sites. Also, home designs can be The aim is to create millions of job opportunities, directly and indi- standardised and costed with economies of scale in mind to ensure rectly, over a 12-month period. A significant number of Nigerians their affordability. 12 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan (v) Strengthening the Social Safety Net: This will be achieved through an increase in the number cash trans- fer beneficiaries, N-Power volunteers and sundry traders enjoying small and micro loans through the MarketMoni and TraderMoni schemes. The preexisting conditional cash transfer will be extend- ed to cover mostly the rural poor. However, on account of the cur- rent lockdown, most of the urban poor, artisans, labourers, petty traders, street vendors, cart pushers, have become further impov- erished. For the construction of houses to continue uninterrupted across the country, the Federal Ministry of Works and Housing, CBN and the Family Homes Fund (under the Ministry of Finance) are mak- ing arrangements for purchase through cooperatives and for ware- housing of completed houses, which will then be mortgaged or let out on rent-to-own basis. (iv) Installation of Solar Home Systems: The proposed Solar Home Systems Project will cover up to 5 million households, serving about 25 million individual Nigerians who are currently not connected to the National Grid. In view of the scale of materials required, solar equipment manufacturers will be re- (vi) Support for Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises quired to set up production facilities in Nigeria, thereby offering Implementation of a scheme to support business activities of additional job opportunities to Nigerians. In addition, installation, MSMEs through guaranteed off take of items like personal protec- servicing and payment collections are expected to provide thou- tive equipment, face shields, face masks, hand sanitizers, shoecov- sands of other jobs. ers, soaps, etc. In this regard, we expect to catalyse massive invest- ments in light manufacturing, which will ensure that many common Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 13 articles of everyday use are made in Nigeria to acceptable standard. Cross-Cutting Imperatives (vii) Reduction in NAFDAC registration fees It is further envisaged that a range of measures must be necessarily Practical support has also been initiated for MSMEs as an immediate taken to undergird the implementation of the Plan, enhance ser- response to support resilience. In this regard, the National Agency vice delivery and build resilience in the post- COVID-19 economy. for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) has imple- These measures include: mented an 80% reduction of its product registration charges and total waiver of administrative charges for product license renewals. (i) Digital identification of every Nigerian, this will help improve the provision of cash transfers and other benefits; (viii) Survival Fund: This is to give payroll support to small and medium-sized enterpris- (ii) Broadband connectivity to help school children access digital es so that they can keep their employees and help maintain jobs. education across the entire country; (ix) Promotion of Domestic Gas Utilisation: (iii) Local production of all that we can: shoes, steel fabrication, To take advantage of Nigeria’s abundant gas resources, which is ceramics, plastics, furniture and building materials; also cheaper and more friendly to the environment, this project will promote indigenous manufacture of gas cylinders, building of gas (iv) Promoting strategic investment in the local manufacture of filling stations and conversion of cars to promote the wide use of generic medicines to reduce importation of expensive drugs; compressed natural gas in the domestic market. (v) To establish a national research fund for medicine and (x) Digital Technology: pharmaceuticals funded by contributions from TETFUND To foster a culture of innovation and create a wide variety of tech- and Corporate Social Responsibility expenditure of private nology and ICT jobs, special attention will be paid to the promotion companies; of technology hubs, call-centres for business process outsourcing and digitisation of processes, both in Government and within the (vi) To promote the uptake of the FGN Savings Bond to private sector. Experience thus far indicates that, if well harnessed, encourage all Nigerians to save a portion of their income no this is a sector that can create jobs on a large scale and earn foreign matter how small. exchange for the country. 14 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Overview production cost, because of the shutdown in virtually every area of manufacturing, services and commerce all over the world. Where this happens, it means that we get virtually no revenues from our oil. N igeria is currently faced with perhaps the most challenging eco- nomic downturn in its history just as the global economy is also confronting its sharpest reversal in a generation. With every coun- There is also a glut in the global gas market, on account of which we are sometimes unable to sell our stock of Liquefied Natural Gas, try dealing with varying degrees of the same problem, there are few potentially wiping out much of the dividends expected from NLNG. places to turn for help. In effect, our major sources of foreign exchange are gravely threat- ened and our external reserves get little or nothing by way of aug- For Nigeria, this is a multilayered quandary: a health crisis, near mentation. Rather, they are being depleted for external payments total shut- down of economic activities, capital flow reversals and a and importation. fast increasing unemployment rate, fuelled by layoffs in almost all sectors of the economy. Non-oil revenue, largely made up of taxes, has also practically dried up. This is because, like several economies around the world, Nige- Nigeria’s status as an ria is faced a paralysis of economic activities due to lockdown meas- oil dependent develop- ures in the Federal Capital Territory and the key commercial and ing economy also puts industrial centres of Lagos, Ogun and Kano States. In addition, sev- us in a particularly diffi- eral other State Governments took similar steps to slow the spread cult place. Government of COVID-19 in their respective territories. These have cumulatively revenues have declined resulted in supply chain disruptions, suspension of commercial ac- significantly, first, on ac- tivities and large-scale job losses. count of the fall in crude oil prices to as low as $12 The depletion of our dollar earnings have also depreciated the Na- per barrel in April 2020, ira, and pushed up prices, especially of imported goods. This is a and then our inability at cause for concern, coming at a time when the average household times to sell oil, despite purchasing power is falling sharply on account of loss of income. its being priced below Businesses that depend on importation for raw materials or other Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 15 inputs for manufacturing are hampered by the sharp drop, by as ing strenuous efforts to address these weaknesses, the current eco- much as 90%, in foreign exchange earnings and shutdowns in ex- nomic emergency threatens to reverse much of the achievements porting countries. So, rather than expect taxes (CIT, PAYE or VAT), and push millions of our people below the poverty line. we should be prepared, at best, for companies reporting losses or seeking tax payment deferment, while government finds a way of shoring up businesses. The Challenge In the face of these emerging challenges, the onslaught of COV- The immediate challenge is that of business continuity, especially ID-19 has also meant radically increased demand for resources in how we protect as many of our Micro, Small, and Medium Enterpris- the health sector, to provide for mounting personnel costs, haz- es as is possible while keeping the economy competitive We have a ard pay, emergency equipment, such as personal protective equip- large informal workforce, usually daily wage earning, consisting of ment, ventilators, oxygen tanks, testing facilities, isolation centres street vendors, petty traders, artisans, roadside motor mechanics, and drugs. This means, for the appropriate level of response, we etc., who have now been deprived of their income. would have to significantly increase our health- care expenditure. With 40% of the population being already classi- fied as poor, i.e., earning less than N137,000 per annum, the COVID-19 crisis is set to multiply the misery, if left unchecked. Structural The Response Vulnerabilities In response to this unprecedented challenge, President Muham- Prior to COVID-19, apart from a major dependence on oil for public madu Buhari established the Economic Sustainability Committee revenues and foreign exchange earnings, our economy was sus- (ESC). Among other things, the ESC was to: ceptible to inflationary pressures and characterized by a high debt service ratio, a weak infrastructural base and unsatisfactory human (i) develop an economic sustainability plan, including capital development indices. Although, government has been mak- recommendation of an appropriate stimulus package; 16 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan (ii) devise measures to create more jobs while keeping safe the $22 per barrel and $14 per barrel, respectfully. As the data reveals, existing ones; and (iii) identify fiscal and monetary measures to enhance oil and non-oil government revenues, in order to fund the plan. The Scenarios if oil prices average $30 over the rest of the year, estimated oil rev- enues (with NNPC concurrently reducing JV costs by 20%) would amount to N88.4bn monthly. At the same time, if non-oil revenues are sustained at the lower level projected in the revised budget es- timates, then average monthly allocations to FAAC for the rest of In determining the level of response or stimulus appropriate for the year would only be about N485bn a month. This would be a this situation, the ESC found it necessary to consider carefully some best-case scenario. probable scenarios. For example, in terms of expected revenues, the fluctuation in global oil prices presages serious economic chal- In the worst-case scenario of $14 per barrel, we lenges for the rest of 2020. This is because crude oil accounts for will incur a net loss of oil production revenues 50% of consolidated government revenues, 30% of banking sector amounting to about $11.8bn monthly. Non-oil rev- credit and 90% of export earnings. In the circumstance, we cannot enue would similarly reflect the slowdown in eco- but expect large budgetary and payments gaps. nomic activities. Monthly FAAC for the rest of the The revenue outlook for the rest of 2020 is depicted in Tables I-IV, year, starting from May 2020, may therefore be no showing scenarios for oil prices at $30 per barrel, $25 per barrel, higher than N384bn. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 17 Monthly FAAC for the rest of the year, starting from May 2020, may The National Bureau of Statistics has modelled macro scenarios therefore be no higher than N384bn. which show that economic growth could fall by as much as -4.40% to -8.91% depending on the severity of the outbreak COVID-19, length of lockdowns and quantum of stimulus deployed by government. In an optimistic scenario, with an average price of $30 per barrel of crude oil in 2020 and a stimulus of up to N3.6tn, growth will still de- cline by -0.42% in 2020, possibly rising to 3.03% in 2021 and 5.17% by 2025. A lower stimulus of N2.3tn or 1.5% of GDP at the same oil price of $30 per barrel will result in a fall in output of -0.59% in 2020 and a resumption of growth to 2.54% in 2021. A more cautious scenario of $20 per barrel with a N3.6tn stimulus will result in negative growth of -2.42% in 2020 recovering to 1.19% in 2021 and 3.32% in 2025. At the same price level, a N2.3tn stimulus will result in an annual growth rate of Neither the optimistic scenario nor the worst-case scenario is com- -2.82% in 2020. and 0.95% in 2021. forting, if compared to the average FAAC disbursement for the first In the pessimistic scenario, if oil prices level out at $15 per barrel three months of 2020, which was N669.9bn. This means that at in 2020 due to a prolonged global recession or continued oil glut, a $30 per barrel oil price, total monthly FAAC will be N184bn less then even with the stimulus of N3.6tn, the economy will decline by every month, while if the price averages $14 per barrel, the FAAC -3.01% in 2020 and only rise by 0.45% in 2021. At the same price total will reduce by N270.9bn a month. This will have serious impli- level of $15 per barrel, a N2.3tn stimulus will still result in a sharp cations for personnel costs, overheads and capital expenditures at decline of -3.66% in 2020. These figures, as well as those for infla- Federal, State and Local Government levels, especially coming at a tion, reserves and external balance, are shown in Table V. time when resources are needed to pay for compelling counter-cy- In the optimistic scenario, and reflecting the stimulus, inflation is clical and pro-poor policies. 18 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan expected to rise to 15% by the end of this year and only fall to sin- gle digits by 2023 while the cautious and pessimistic scenario will show more moderate inflation reflecting a generalised slowdown in economic activity. With regard to external financing, the overall balance is expected to deteriorate from -$2.1bn to -$16.2bn, leaving a financing gap of $14.1bn. Some of this can be met through concessional borrow- ing of about $7bn from international financial institutions, but that will still leave a financing gap of $7.1bn dollars (See Table VI). The external debt situation is also of concern. Nigeria is expected to pay $165m as interest on its bilateral official debts (mostly to Chi- na) and will likely get some relief following the G20 agreement in this regard. But a greater problem will arise from interest payments What we must do due on outstanding Eurobonds, which amount to $655.48m for the rest of 2020. It is clear that we must now take urgent steps to forestall a severe economic downturn and the largest unemployment situation yet in Averting a deep recession our history. Consequently, over the next twelve months, the Feder- al Government will work in close collaboration with State Govern- In essence, we have to find ways to prevent or limit recession, and ments and the private sector to stimulate the economy by prevent- avert the accompanying prospects of business failures, job losses, ing business collapse and ensuring liquidity; retaining and creating and increased poverty. The generally accepted approach today is jobs using labour intensive methods in key areas like agriculture, to deploy a stimulus package, an increase in government spending, housing, digital business services and direct labour interventions. tax discounts, loan re-payment deferments or re-structuring, all We must also undertake growth enhancing and job creating infra- with a view to increasing aggregate demand by beefing up invest- structural investments in roads, bridges, renewable energy, and ments and consumer spending. The question then is not whether communication technologies; and extend the protection of vulner- or not we should stimulate the economy but what size of stimulus able groups – including women and persons living with disabilities package is capable of preventing a disastrous recession. - through pro-poor spending. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 19 The Proposed Plan The Economic Sustainability Plan aims to mitigate the effects of a deep recession, while ensuring social stability and addressing long-standing economic vulnerabilities as envisaged in the Econom- ic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). While a stimulus package is a good start, we recognise that merely spending without increasing production will only fuel inflation. We therefore need a simple but big vision that focuses on retaining and creating jobs and increasing productivity. Consequently, the Economic Sustainability Plan which will last for one year focuses on achieving mass employment and mass domestic production, which are not dependent on importa- tion or foreign exchange expenditure. Fiscal and Monetary Measures Given our limited fiscal space and the scale of our economic challenge, the Federal Government has The Plan is based on several pillars. Fiscal and monetary measures opted for the stimulus package of N2.3tn. It will will be taken to maximise government revenue and entrench a re- gime of prudence with an emphasis on achieving value for money. obtain the resources for the stimulus from Spe- Our goal is to keep the economy active through carefully calibrated cial Accounts - N500bn; CBN structured lending regulatory interventions designed to boost domestic value-addi- – N1.11bn; as well as portions of the resources tion, de-risk the enterprise environment, galvanise external invest- to be obtained from external bilateral/multilater- ment and sources of funding while rationalising existing debt obli- al sources - N334bn and other funding sources – gations and providing support to both the State Governments and N302.9bn. business sectors negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The role of government, (in the fiscal, monetary and real sectors) is to be the provider or facilitator of resources for private sector pro- grammes, and ultimately to ensure offtake of whatever is produced 20 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan in the designated sectors. This means that government will arrange 5. A national saving culture will be further developed by offtake for work done, houses built, or goods produced. doubling participation in the FGN Saving Bond though enabling a wider reach and a use of innovation. Cross-Cutting Imperatives There are a number of cross-cutting imperatives that must be im- Real Sector Measures plemented in order to build resilience in a post-COVID-19 economy. The Real Sector Measures consist of a mix of project and policy ap-

1. We must ensure that every Nigerian has a unique digital proaches, which focus on the creation of jobs across the fields of identity. The lack of such identification was a key obstacle in agriculture, food security, housing construction, renewable energy, giving support and palliatives during the lockdown. infrastructure, manufacturing and the digital economy. The aim is to safeguard and support existing micro, small and medium scale

2. Also important is broadband connectivity across the whole businesses while ramping up local productive capacity by maximis- country, as that is our surest launch-pad to the ing emerging opportunities for innovation in technology, agro-allied modernisation of the Nigerian economy. value-chains, garment production, information and communication technology, entertainment and tourism, among other sectors. The

3. The pandemic has shown that research and development is approaches chosen will help to reduce costs in a manner consistent vital and must be incorporated to enable national resilience with private sector development. and strengthen local production. The plan then is to create a special fund for medical and pharmaceutical research including by pooling funds from existing schemes such as in Preserving and Creating Jobs TETFUND and from adjustments to how corporate social responsibility is used for tax deductability. There are four imperatives at the heart of our job creation drive. First, we must adopt a Mass Agricultural Programme. The agricul-

4. In the same vein, as there are likely to be other serious tural value chain must start with a focus on smallholder farms, both outbreaks of infectious diseases, a national strategic to preserve existing livelihoods and enable them as lynchpin of the investment in the manufacturing of generic medicines must sector. Farming is of course a vocation most Nigerians are already be undertaken. familiar with or can easily adapt to through a more robust value Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 21 chain supported by reliable access to energy for irrigation, agricul- ances. With a plan for 5 million homes to be delivered by the private tural production and refrigeration of goods to markets. Second is a sector, we have no doubt that they will be well motivated to do so national rural road construction programme. Third is a mass hous- within the shortest possible time. ing programme; and, while existing institutions continue to develop definitive solutions to the constraints in the on-grid power sector, the fourth aspect of the Plan will focus on the large scale installa- tion of mini-grids and solar home systems in a minimum of 5 mil- lion households not currently on the grid. Sourcing Local Materials As a deliberate strategy, given foreign exchange constraints and the need to promote local value addition, all these programmes will strive to maximise the use of only local inputs. For roads, where we cannot afford to import bitumen or asphalt with our scarce re- sources, we will use limestone and rocks, which we have in abun- dance. So all roads, especially those to be built through investments from national savings including pension funds will be designed to optimise the use of local materials. Mass housing will also use local Protecting the Most Vulnerable materials, and of course local labour only. Even as we focus on putting our dynamic and entrepreneurial pop- A notable exception to our ‘minimal imports’ policy may be in our ulation to work, we are mindful of the need to protect the most collaboration to provide solar power on a massive scale for 5 mil- vulnerable segments of our society from the shocks inflicted by lion households. This will require imports of solar panels in the COVID-19 and the resultant economic upheaval. To this end, the short-run. However, there are indications that some of the world’s existing Social Investment Programmes will be deepened and ex- leading manufacturers are prepared to set up local manufacturing panded to spread a broader umbrella of protection over our most plants for producing necessary solar power components and appli- vulnerable persons and communities. 22 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan In recognition of the fact that most people at the bottom of the pyr- Delivery amid are engaged as daily-paid and self-employed workers – like bricklayers, vulcanisers, general petty traders, electricians, bus driv- Each Minister will be responsible for supervising the implementa- ers and barrow-pushers – whose livelihoods have been disrupted tion of plans situated in his or her Ministry, through a Ministerial by the lockdown and who require assistance, we propose a credit Implementation Committee chaired by the Minister. The Ministerial facility to be disbursed through micro-finance and fin-tech credit Committee will be responsible for ensuring synergy between stake- providers. To ensure that all programmes achieve inclusion across holders, especially the public and private sectors. The Committees all social groups, strategies to respond specifically to needs of wom- shall also drive the execution of specific projects, coordinate the en- en and girls will be deployed. Data shall be dis-aggregated to show tire sectorial value chain and ensure resolution of any bottlenecks, the distribution of beneficiaries according to gender. which might impede implementation. The Economic Sustainability Committee, an inter-ministerial Com- Fostering New Ways of Working mittee, which will work with the National Economic Council will be responsible for general oversight of implementation and will report As a whole, the Economic Sustainability Plan seeks to foster new regularly to the President. Project Monitors and the ESC Secretariat ways of working, producing, learning and managing public health will support the ESC and Ministerial Implementation Committees. and safety in the years to come. This includes building resilience Expenditures will be monitored through the National M&E Frame- across critical sectors, including aviation, education, healthcare, in- work and the Budget Office of the Federation. ternal security, mining, water and sanitation. Our ultimate aim is to transform adversity into advantage. Instead of the prospect of 30 million unemployed Nigerians staring us in the face, we can put up to 30 million Nigerians to work, even in the short term. This possibility requires a concerted whole-of-govern- ment and whole-of-society campaign to steer our nation through these difficult times. This document is an expression of our resolve to not only survive this emergency, but emerge from it thriving. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 23 Table I. $30/bl Scenario $30/bl Scenario with 20% Cut on JV and Dom (N’bn) Gas Cost (N’bn) NNPC Gross Revenue (JV+PSC) 3178 3178 Cost Deductions 2353 1995 Annual FAAC Remittance 824 1183 Amount Remitted to FAAC (Jan-Apr) 475 475 Estimated Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) 349 707 Anticipated Monthly Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) 44 88.4 Revised Budget Monthly Avg 33(100%) Monthly Average 80% (excluding Royalty) Estimated Monthly Royalty from Others (JVs, PSCs, Independent and Marginal Fields) 39 39 Signature Bonus 47 38 Net Corporate Tax Distributable and Net VAT distributable 310 248 Net Customs Revenue Distributable 63 51 Net Revenue from Other Sources 23 21 Total Monthly Revenue from Other Sources (Royalties, CITA, VAT, Customs Revenue) 482.7 396.4 Grand Monthly Total Remittances to FAAC 526 485 24 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Table II. $25/bl Scenario $25/bl Scenario with 20% Cut on JV and Dom (N’bn) Gas Cost (N’bn) NNPC Gross Revenue (JV+PSC) 2927 2927 Cost Deductions 2353 1995 Annual FAAC Remittance 574 932 Amount Remitted to FAAC (Jan-Apr) 475 475 Estimated Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) 99 457 Anticipated Monthly Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) 12.3 57.1 Revised Budget Monthly Avg (100%) Monthly Average 80% (excluding Royalty) Estimated Monthly Royalty from Others (JVs, PSCs, Independent and Marginal Fields) 39 39 Signature Bonus 47 38 Net Corporate Tax Distributable and Net VAT distributable 310 248 Net Customs Revenue Distributable 63 51 Net Revenue from Other Sources 23 21 Total Monthly Revenue from Other Sources (Royalties, CITA, VAT, Customs Revenue) 48.7 396.4 Grand Monthly Total Remittances to FAAC 495 453 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 25 Table III. $22/bl Scenario $22/bl Scenario with 20% Cut on JV and Dom (N’bn) Gas Cost (N’bn) NNPC Gross Revenue (JV+PSC) 2777 2777 Cost Deductions 2353 1995 Annual FAAC Remittance 423 782 Amount Remitted to FAAC (Jan-Apr) 475 475 Estimated Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) -51.7 306 Anticipated Monthly Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) -6.5 38.3 Revised Budget Monthly Avg (100%) Monthly Average 80% (exc Royalty) Estimated Monthly Royalty from Others (JVs, PSCs, Independent and Marginal Fields) 39 39 Signature Bonus 47 38 Net Corporate Tax Distributable and Net VAT distributable 310 248 Net Customs Revenue Distributable 63 51 Net Revenue from Other Sources 23.7 21 Total Monthly Revenue from Other Sources (Royalties, CITA, VAT, Customs Revenue) 482.7 396.4 Grand Monthly Total Remittances to FAAC 477 434 26 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Table IV. $14/bl Scenario $14/bl Scenario with 20% Cut on JV and Dom (N’bn) Gas Cost (N’bn) NNPC Gross Revenue (JV+PSC) 2377 2377 Cost Deductions 2353 1995 Annual FAAC Remittance 23 381 Amount Remitted to FAAC (Jan-Apr) 475 475 Estimated Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) -452 -94.2 Anticipated Monthly Remittance to FAAC (May-Dec) -56.5 -11.8 Revised Budget Monthly Avg (100%) Monthly Average 80% (excluding Royalty) Estimated Monthly Royalty from Others (JVs, PSCs, Independent and Marginal Fields) 39 39 Signature Bonus 47 38 Net Corporate Tax Distributable and Net VAT distributable 310 248 Net Customs Revenue Distributable 63 51 Net Revenue from Other Sources 23.7 21 Total Monthly Revenue from Other Sources (Royalties, CITA, VAT, Customs Revenue) 482.7 396.4 Grand Monthly Total Remittances to FAAC 427 384 Source for Table I-IV: NNPC Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 27 Table V. 28 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Table VI. Nigeria: External Financing Gap 2020 (Billions of U.S Dollars, unless otherwise specified) 2019 Pre-COVID/19 RFI Current Account Balance -17.0 -5.4 -14.7 Trade Balance 2.9 14.4 -7.2 Exports 65.0 67.4 37.3 Oil & Gas 54.5 59.9 27.8 Imports -62.1 -53.0 -44.5 Services (Net) -33.8 -32.0 -25.7 Income (Net) -12.5 -14.3 -7.5 Transfers (Net) 26.4 26.5 25.8 Financing 13.6 3.3 -1.5 Financial Account (Net) 13.6 3.3 -1.5 FDI 1.8 2.1 0.9 Portfolio Investment (Net) 9.0 7.6 -2.4 Other Investment (Net) 2.8 -6.4 0.0 Overall Balance -5.5 -2.1 -16.2 Financing Gap 14.1 percent of gap 3.2 RFI 3.4 percent of gap 24.1 Other sources World Bank 2.5 African Development Bank 0.5 Islamic Development Bank 0.1 Afrexim Bank 0.5 Total other sources 3.6 percent of gap from other sources 25.5 Source: Federal Government and IMF Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 29 Fiscal and Monetary Measures 30 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

1. Immediate Fiscal Measures Objective Mobilise resources to stimulate the economy and fund projects in the Economic Sustainability Plan. Policies - Unlock available funds in Special Accounts to create a N500bn intervention fund - Specific measures to support the Private Sector: - Activate the provisions of the Finance Act 2020 in support of MSMEs - Structure and launch a Tax Resolution and Settlement Unit - Extend deadlines and suspend penalties for filing tax returns - Incentivise employers to retain and recruit staff during economic downturn (see Table 14 below) - Provide targeted tariff reduction and trade finance facilities to support strategic imports and serve as a boost to economic activity - Support strategic industries affected by the pandemic, such as the aviation, hospitality and road transport sectors • Measures to support the Health Sector - Convert World Bank REDISSE programme to support COVID-19 interventions in the states - Provide funding to pharmaceutical sector to support the procurement of raw materials and equipment required to boost local drug production - Provide N86bn intervention fund for health infrastructure - Accelerated procurement of health material and equipment - Develop incentive package for frontline healthcare workers • Accelerate Infrastructure Completion - Expand the scope of the Road Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme (RITCS) - Accelerate the construction of 794.4km of approved roads and bridges under RITCS Implementing Agencies Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning Central Bank of Nigeria Timeline 12 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 31

2. Fiscal Measures To Safeguard Oil Revenues Objective Safeguard oil revenues Policies • Deregulate the price of refined petroleum products and establish a sustainable framework for maintaining the national strategic stock. • NNPC to ensure 100% remittance of royalty and taxes paid by companies in kind to the Federation Account and sustain periodic reconciliation with DPR and FIRS • NNPC to continue to rationalise deductions from oil sector revenue in order to maximise payments to the Federation Account. • Maintain the practice of NNPC paying commercial value for all its crude oil lifting going forward. • Reduce the average production costs of crude oil by at least 20% in the first instance. Implementing Agencies Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Department of Petroleum Resources, NNPC Timeline 12 months 32 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

3. Fiscal Measures To Mobilise and Preserve Non-Oil Revenues Objective Maximise government revenues and optimise expenditures Policies • Implement the VAT reforms in the Finance Act 2020, maintaining the increase in VAT rate to 7.5%. • Develop business continuity plans for tax and customs administration to provide services to citizens, taxpayers, and importers in case of widespread contagion (or mobility restrictions). • Rationalise ineffective tax incentives and exemptions. • Increase remittances and recovery of unremitted revenues from GOEs. • Immediate sign-off of guidelines of Significant Economic Presence (to capture revenues from cross-border business transactions). • Unlock value from FG assets that are lying idle or under-utilised. • Incentivise the use of up to N2 tn of pension funds for roads and housing development. Implementing Agencies Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning

4. Fiscal Measures To Reduce Non-Essential Spending Objective Streamline all government expenditure and eliminate non-essential items Policies • Adopt a Financing Plan for the Power Sector Recovery Programme. • Eliminate non-critical and administrative capital expenditure. • Expand the biometric-based Integrated Personnel & Payroll Information System (IPPIS) to cover all MDAs. • Rationalise government agencies. Implementing Agencies Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning Timeline 12 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 33

5. Monetary Policy Measures Objective Support the economy using monetary measures. Policies • Provide N1tn in loans to boost local manufacturing and production across critical sector. • Unify exchange rates to maximise naira returns to FAAC from foreign exchange inflows. • Manage the exchange rate in a sustainable manner. • Invoke partial risk guarantees for SMEs. • Grant additional moratorium of 1 year on CBN intervention facilities. • Reduce interest rate on intervention facilities from 9% to 5%. • Create N100bn target credit facility for affected MSMEs. • Grant regulatory forbearance to banks to restructure terms of facilities in affected sectors. • Improve foreign exchange supply to the CBN by directing oil companies and oil service companies to sell foreign exchange to the CBN rather than the NNPC. Implementing Agencies Central Bank of Nigeria Timeline 12 months 34 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

6. Measures to Mobilise External Support and Funding Objective Mobilise external funding and seek debt relief. Policies • Engage with multilateral and donor agencies to access additional funding for crisis response, i.e. IMF - $3.4bn; World Bank - $2.5bn; AfDB - $0.5bn, African Export-Import Bank - $0.5bn, IsDB - $113m. • Seek moratorium from official partners on bilateral and multilateral debt. • Support arrangements to secure commercial debt relief. Implementing Agencies Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning Timeline 12 months

7. Measures to Collaborate with and support The States Objective Support financial viability of States. • Negotiate suspension of payments in respect of ISPO. Policies • Provide moratorium on deductions in respect of bailout loans. • Develop guidelines to protect inter-state commerce. • Encourage States to achieve SIFTAS and other World Bank programme actions in order to access external support. • States should consider issuance of promissory notes to pay their construction debts. • Collaborate with State Governments on Affordable Mass Housing, Agriculture and Off-grid Power Projects and other projects in the ESP. Implementing Agencies Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning. Central Bank of Nigeria. Timeline 12 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 35

8. Measures Requiring Legislative Support Objective Secure appropriate legislative basis for actions to achieve economic sustainability. Passage of: Policies • A Fiscal Stimulus Act. • Other provisions to backstop the Economic Sustainability Plan. Implementing Agencies Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning Federal Ministry of Justice Timeline 0 - 3 months 36 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

9. Cross Cutting Imperatives for A Post-Covid Economic Recovery Objective To build resilience into the architecture of government and society. Policies • Collaboration between government, the telecoms ecosystem and banking sector to provide a National Identification Number (NIN) to every Nigerian. • Promote strategic investment to make Nigeria a major hub for the manufacture of generic medicines. • Achieve broadband infrastructure across the country by 2023. • Create a special fund for medical and pharmaceutical research, pooling funds from existing schemes in TETFUND and from corporate social responsibility (CSR) contributions. • Promote a national savings culture by doubling participation in FGN Savings Bonds by reaching a wider set of people and using innovation. • Reform the NHIS to promote universal health coverage. Implementing Agencies FM of Science & Technology, FM of Communications & Digital Economy, FM of Education, FM of Health, FM Finance, Budget and National Planning, NIMC Timeline 12 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 37 Real Sector Measures Details of all programmes in this Section are contained in the Annex to this Plan 38 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

10. Food For All: Agriculture and Food Security This project which will take place over a period of 12 months and fertilisers, pesticides as well as extension services, storage to is intended to expand existing production in the agricultural mitigate post-harvest losses and equipment. Farmers will also sector and stimulate the establishment of new farms in be linked to low-interest input financing. partnership with State Governments, the private sector and individual citizens. The intention is for the project to create 5 The increased production will be purchased by private sector million jobs by focusing on increasing land under cultivation with anchor purchasers (e.g. large conglomerates), agro-processors, State Governments contributing between 20,000 to 100,000 commodity exchanges and procurement for government hectares from a combination of aggregated smallholder farms strategic reserves. In addition, any unsold produce will be and utilisation of abandoned states farm settlements and purchased at a reserve price by relevant agencies on behalf of agricultural projects. the Federal Government. The project will span the entire agricultural value chain, from Also, to facilitate access to farms, there will be extensive ‘farm to table’ as it were. It will support small holder farmers construction of rural roads, using locally sourced materials like directly or through outgrower schemes with services and inputs granites and rocks. including land-clearing, ploughing, provision of seeds, saplings, Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 39 Objective Create 5 million jobs in the agricultural sector while boosting agricultural production and guaranteeing food security. Guiding Principle Expand production and output by working closely with the private sector to address all issues along the value chain, including production, harvesting, storage, transporting, processing and marketing. Project Elements • Identify between 20,000 and 100,000 hectares of land per State for agricultural use. • Explore financing options so that small holder farmers can access interest-free credit with a small administrative charge. • Involve individual farmers and agricultural cooperatives to increase agricultural labour capacity nationally. • Partner with private sector to implement strategies to increase yield per hectare including through outgrower schemes and knowledge transfer protocols and greater access to energy for production and refrigeration. • Guarantee market and mitigate post-harvest losses for the products through a combination of private sector off-takers, commodity exchanges, a government buy-back scheme, strategic reserve purchases. Implementation Structure Presidential Task Force on Food and Jobs in Agriculture Estimated Cost N 634, 982,256,367.46 Timeline 12 months 40 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

11. Jobs Through Homes: Mass Housing Housing Strategy The Mass Housing Strategy envisages the creation of 1.8 million In addition, construction sites will function like factories for the jobs starting with the construction of 300,000 homes in the next light manufacture of inputs for house construction, such as 12 months. The strategy envisages a two-track approach. locks, keys, nails, doors, window frames, cement bricks, paint plants, etc. to be used on location. In order to create indirect The first track is aimed at easing bottlenecks in the delivery of so- jobs and save on costs, it is intended that all the materials to be cial housing while the second track will deliver affordable homes used in the houses will be produced in Nigeria. through direct government interventions in house construction. Financing will be arranged through the designation of a Homes’ Track 1 Warehousing Agent who will purchase the completed homes from the developer teams and from whom individual buyers will In addition to the jobs created in the process of increasing the eventually purchase homes. national housing stock, the strategy will also motivate increased domestic production of building materials. 11. JOBS THROUGH HOMES: MASS HOUSING HOUSING STRATEGY Features of the strategy include developing standardised home design to streamline production methods and costs, engage- ment with States Governments to provide suitable land banks Track 2 and giving construction contracts with guaranteed off-take to a mix of established developers and consortiums of young profes- In Track 2, between them, the Federal Housing Authority, the sionals in the building sector (architects, engineers, quantity sur- Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria and the Public Building and veyors, accountants, etc.) as small and medium scale contrac- Housing Development Programme will support the creation of tors. These groups will in turn generate the associated artisanal construction and associated jobs over the next 12 months. This jobs. will involve building 10,840 units of low, medium and high income units across the six geopolitical zones. Under the Public Building and Housing Development Programme, a further 12,008 houses Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 41 will be built. Also, a programme of extensive rehabilitation and Housing Development Loan Scheme and a National Affordable restoration of public buildings will be implemented all over the Workers’ Housing Scheme. An Executive Order to implement country. The Federal Mortgage Bank will also provide construc- the National Public Buildings Maintenance Policy will be issued tion financing, for up to 2,667 housing units per year with ar- to facilitate the survey and maintenance work on public build- rangements for off-take being organised through a Cooperative ings. Track 1 Objective Build 300,000 homes across the country in 12 months in the first instance. Guiding Principle Utilise the job creation potential of the housing sector to create a lot of jobs at professional and ar- tisanal levels using local materials while also providing homes for at least 1.5 million more Nigerian families across the country. Project Elements Work with State Governments to identify land for housing construction in all Local Government Areas • Target 100% local input for construction of 400 homes in each Local Government Areas. • Standardise design of homes for cost management and industrialisation of construction process. • Identify and select delivery partners formed by groups of professionals and artisanal builders as primary delivery channels. • Create a ‘Homes Warehouse’ to buy any completed homes from delivery partners, in the absence of ready off-takers. • Mortgage or sell homes to the public through the Homes Warehouse. • Encourage private sector involvement and facilitate maturity of the mortgage market that will cater to the needs of middle-class Nigerians while government addresses the needs of low-income earners and the poor. Timeline 12 months 42 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Track 2 Objective Utilise existing institutions to build 25,515 affordable homes across the country in 12 months Guiding Principle Optimise the job creation potential of the housing sector to deliver affordable housing across the country. Project Elements • Work with States to identify land for housing construction. • Target 100% local input for construction. • Engage the housing industry supply chain in its entirety including mortgage banks, developers, builders and artisans. • Engage with off-takers in the private and public sector through employee cooperatives. • Ensure use of local content in construction, rehabilitation and maintenance work. • Issuance of Executive Order on the implementation of the National Public Buildings Maintenance Policy. Implementation Structure Federal Ministry of Works and Housing, Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, Federal Housing Authority Estimated Cost N 317,292,377,973.48 Timeline 12 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 43

12. Energy For All: Solar Power Strategy The Solar Power Strategy will support 250,000 jobs and impact development finance institutions and the CBN in order to install up to 25 million beneficiaries through the installation of 5 million solar systems at an affordable price. The project will also draw Solar Home systems and mini-grids. Provision of reliable elec- on the experience of the ‘Energising Economies’ project through tricity to health clinics will also be included as a priority. which customers with low energy demand were provided with electricity on a monthly ‘pay-as-you-go’ basis by private sector The project will swiftly increase the stock of affordable energy operators. by providing solar power to rural communities that have little The project will also promote the local production of solar com- or no access to the national grid. Private sector installers of so- ponents and appliances, taking advantage of the work that has lar systems will be supported to access low-cost financing from already been done in this regard by the NASENI and others. Objective Create 250,000 jobs in the energy sector while providing solar power to 5 million households by 2023. Guiding Principle Leverage private sector knowledge and finance as well as the demonstrated willingness of citizens to pay for reliable power supply to expand access to electricity nationally. Project Elements • Identify locations for solar installations working with state governments. • Identify prospective beneficiaries. • Facilitate the participation of private sector solar providers including SMEs in the deployment of solar power to 5 million households. • Encourage private sector financing for off-grid solar energy projects with a minimum Tier 2 (80W – 150W) system. • Attract investment of solar panel manufacturers into Nigeria, building on the work already done by NASENI and others. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Power, Rural Electrification Agency, Niger Delta Power Holding Company Estimated Cost N 240,000,000,000.00 Timeline 12 months 44 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

13. Jobs for Youths and Women Post Covid-19 This project brings together some of the key elements already The Jobs For Youth Project will support the creation of jobs existing in this Plan including road construction and mainte- through: nance, digital economy and education. It also contains addition- • Training in digital skills in partnership with private sector al elements such as the creation of a national public works pro- providers like Google, Microsoft, IBM and Cisco gramme to create 774,000 jobs (in all 774 local governments) • Direct labour in a National Public Infrastructure and empowerment schemes designed to boost the capacity of Maintenance project women in artisanal employment and Micro, Small and Medium • Provision of start-up capital and entrepreneurship skills Enterprises (MSMEs). for young Nigerians people and women Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 45 Objective Create jobs for youths in relevant priority sectors. Guiding Principle Develop an enabling environment for the proactive engagement of the country’s youth in priority sectors of the economy to promote the creation of a productive and inclusive society. Project Elements • Identify beneficiaries. • Ensure appropriate gender diversity in access to resources and empowerment opportunities. • Provide training in key digital skills in partnership with private sector, providers, including Google, Microsoft, IBM, Cisco where applicable • Provide start-up capital for participants of selected programmes where applicable. • Provide training in entrepreneurship skills for applicants. • Identify relevant National Public Infrastructure Maintenance projects. • Provide access to direct labour in a National Public Infrastructure Maintenance project. • Provide access to start-up capital for qualifying young Nigerian entrepreneurs where applicable. • Provide resources for training. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Labour and Productivity (Sub-Committee on Creation of Jobs for Youth and Women) Estimated Cost N 50,000,000,000.00 (for Direct Labour in National Infrastructure Projects) Timeline 12 months 46 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

14. The Future of Work – Strategy For Jobs in Technology The Strategy for Jobs in Technology will take advantage of op- Additional workspaces for private sector participants will be portunities in the digital economy to create 1 million jobs in identified in partnership with State Governments to form tech- outsourcing. It is intended to create jobs by training young nology parks and outsourcing centres. Service standards will Nigerians to take advantage of existing initiatives in the digital be set for the private sector through regulatory agencies, e.g. economy, including in education, entertainment, e-commerce, NCC, FCCPC, CBN and for the government through the office of financial services and software development. Specifically, it in- the SGF and the Head of Service. This will stimulate activity in tends to leverage the high job creation potential of the technol- the contact (call) centre and document digitisation sectors. By ogy sector by using policy to deepen the provision of business enhancing their customer service structure in compliance with support services, including business process outsourcing in the minimum standards established by regulation, customer facing economy. For these purposes, this strategy incorporates the ex- government agencies will be leading off-takers of these services pansion of broadband connectivity to business services parks in addition to major private sector entities like banks, telecom- and locations. munications companies, satellite television services, airlines and e-commerce operators Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 47 Objective Launch a national programme to create jobs in digital outsourcing. Guiding Principle Develop a national workforce for jobs of the future by enhancing the competence and capacity of Nigerian youth to participate in job intensive technology sectors. Project Elements • Identify sub-sectors for Nigeria’s focus in BPO; such as Call/Contact Centres, Document Digitisation, Software Development and Troubleshooting, Paralegal Services, Book-keeping, etc. • Development of policy guidelines and regulations by relevant regulatory agencies establishing service standards for customer facing activities by both government and private sector entities, e.g. prescribing at least one call centre seat for every 1,000 customers. • Restart and execute the Government Contact Centre Project (in partnership with the private sector). • Develop enabling policy environment including incentives for the training, recruitment and retention of personnel. • Establish Data Processing and Document Digitisation as government policy so that government is a key off-taker of such services. • Provision of facilities to support BPO, including broadband access, and collaboration with the private sector to create suitable technology parks and workspaces. • Availability of low cost finance to support start-ups in the BPO sector. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy Estimated Cost Not applicable Timeline 12 months 48 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

15. National Gas Expansion Programme (NGEP) Track 1 support conversion from the use of traditional fuels like kero- sene, wood etc. to the use of cleaner LPG fuel. The project will The National Gas Expansion Programme will accelerate the tran- engage with private sector to promote the distribution and do- sition of Nigeria to a post-oil era, promote the domestic use of mestic manufacture of cylinders and other accessories to en- cleaner fuels, and prepare the CNG market for export opportu- courage expand the adoption and use of LPG. nities. Subsequently, a Presidential Inter-Ministerial Committee was constituted and saddled with the responsibility of coordinating The downstream sector will be engaged to develop modular the proposed interventions under this initiative, with the Na- Compressed Natural Gas refilling plants for the distribution of tional Gas Expansion Programme Management Office (PMO) gas. charged with the responsibility to coordinate the implementa- tion of the expansion programme. Track 2 The National LPG Expansion Implementation Plan will oversee and drive all the disparate efforts undertaken by industry stake- holders to promote LPG consumption in Nigeria. Working with private sector developers, the project will organise the sector to Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 49 Track 1 Objective Launch a national programme to promote domestic use of CNG and support the creation of 1 million jobs. Guiding Principle Maximise domestic use of CNG while reducing reliance on refined petroleum products like kerosene and PMS. Project Elements The National Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme The National Gas Expansion Programme Compressed Natural Gas as Vehicular (Transportation) Fuel: • Implement detailed CNG penetration plan. • Identify in-country firms for CNG conversion kits and OEM companies. • Provide incentives to reduce conversion costs of vehicles and equipment that use other forms of energy. • Roll-out programme for CNG utilisation on identified interstate routes, including Abuja. • Develop local content and capacity building initiatives with PTDF for CNG conversion. • Provide available gas resources along existing pipeline infrastructure. • Liaise with NEXIM, BOI and NCDMB for financing for private sector Conversion Garages and Gas Filling Stations. • Partner with relevant stakeholders on deployment of the pilot modular CNG refilling stations, conversion training and certification nationwide. • Mass sensitisation and public awareness across the country on the use of CNG including safety measures. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Estimated Cost N 90,000,000,000.00 Timeline 12 months 50 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Track 2 Objective Support the creation of 1 million jobs through the conversion of 30 million homes from dirty fuels (kerosene, charcoal and diesel) to LPG and achieve emissions reduction in greenhouses gases while also applying LPG in other sectors such as agriculture, power generation, transport, industry and technology Guiding Principle Maximise inland production of almost 5 million tonnes of gas to contribute to a reduction in the for- eign exchange requirement for petroleum products. Project Elements • Implement an awareness and sensitisation campaign in partnership with state governments starting with 12 pilot states in the six geo-political zones. • Implement a Cylinder Injection Scheme through the provision of 5 – 10 million cylinders in the pilot states. • Promote the establishment of cylinder manufacturing plants for gas stoves and accessories. • Modify the National automotive policy to include gas for automobiles. • Engage OEMs to establish CKD factories locally. • Engage Agriculture, Telecoms and Power sectors in the use of LPG logistics (Agriculture), for captive power (industry and Telecoms). • Promote and incentivise more domestic supply sources from marginal field operators and reduction of exports from current exporters of LPG. • Seed capital required from FGN by the DFI’s for the proposed LPG Fund with BOI acting as single obligor Implementing Structure Inter- Ministerial Committee on LPG Estimated Cost N23,400,000,000.00 Timeline 12 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 51

16. Supporting Small Businesses: Guaranteed Offtake Scheme for MSMEs; SME Survival Fund; SME Intervention Funds; MSME Regulatory Support There are several tracks through which Government will be sup- include: hotels, creative industries, road transport, tourism, pri- porting micro, small and medium enterprises to enable them vate educational institutions, etc. respond to the economic challenges of COVID-19. Interest-free credit to artisans: In addition, a further scheme TRACK 1 to support daily-paid and self-employed workers and artisans through the provision of interest-free credit to be disbursed The purpose of the Guaranteed Off-take Scheme for MSMEs is through micro-finance and fin-tech credit providers. to safeguard 300,000 existing jobs in 100,000 MSMEs (impacting 1,000,000 individuals) and sustain local production. The scheme Support to the Road Transport Sector: To cushion the effects of will function by government making arrangements to purchase social distancing, further support will be provided to the road specific priority products made by MSMEs. To ensure value for transport sector in the form of direct grants to transport work- money the process for such supplies will be a bidding process. ers and businesses to support this sector which enables signifi- The scheme will ensure that small businesses do not fail and cant proportion of commercial activity. thus ensure that the jobs in the MSME sector are not lost to the global and national slowdown in economic activity. TRACK 3 TRACK 2 This track is an initiative to be led by the Bank of Industry (BOI) to provide support to key sectors impacted by the pandemic such Payroll support to designated sectors: The scheme is a condi- as: Healthcare; Agro Processing; Creative Industry; Oil & Gas; fe- tional grant to support vulnerable SMEs in designated vulner- male-owned businesses. able sectors in meeting their payroll obligations and safeguard jobs from the shock of COVID-19. The scheme will seek to sup- Preliminary engagements have been undertaken with the pri- port 50,000 SMEs employing a minimum of 10 employees and a vate sector to identify interventions required. These include: maximum of 50 employees each. Designated vulnerable sectors 52 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan • Credit facilities that support their working capital and sectors i.e. to micro, small and medium enterprises as well as expansion of existing production facilities large corporates. • Credit remediation support e.g. tenor extension, loan TRACK 4 restructuring, moratoriums etc. This track is a practical and immediate response to micro and • Support for working capital facilities and term loans to small businesses to support resilience and ensure continued finance expansion requests. local production and cushion the effects of the pandemic. The measures introduced will reduce product registration and re- Given its structure, BOI as fund manager is able to provide tai- newal tariffs with the National Agency for Food and Drug Admin- lored lending solutions across the value chains of these affected istration and Control (NAFDAC). Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 53 Track 1 Objective Sustain 300,000 jobs in 100,000 MSMEs by guaranteeing off-take of priority products, such as processed food, Personal Protective Equipment, hand sanitisers, face-masks, face-shields, shoe covers, pharmaceuticals. Guiding Principle Safeguard existing small businesses to save jobs and ensure continued local production. Project Elements • Purchase identified items from small businesses. • Collaborate with private sector MSME associations. • Define the products, quantity required and the price for the identified products. • Solicit interest from MSMEs to participate in procurement. • Verify and screen the applications from bidding MSMEs. • Provide registration support with CAC for unregistered MSMEs. • Develop and sign contract with beneficiaries. • Make payments based on agreements. • Make arrangements for transparent purchase and distribution of procured items. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment Estimated Cost N 15,000,000,000.00 54 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Track 2 Objective Establish the SME Survival Fund to sustain at least 500,000 jobs in 50,000 SMEs. Guiding Principle Use payroll support to save jobs and ensure continued local production. Project Elements • Identify beneficiary small businesses in designated sectors, viz: Hotels, Creative Industries, Road Transport, Tourism, Private Schools and Export-related businesses. • Screen and verify applications using available company registration, tax registration. • Identify, approve and disburse grants to beneficiaries through microfinance banks and financial technology credit providers. • Identify eligible private transport companies and workers. • Screen and verify applications of eligible Road Transport workers. • Approve and disburse grants to beneficiaries. Implementing Structure Steering Committee on the MSME Survival Fund; Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Bank of Industry. Estimated Cost N50,000,000,000.00 [payroll support] N200,000,000,000.00 [loans to artisans] N10,000,000,000.00 [support to private transport companies and workers] Timeline 0 - 3 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 55 Track 3 Objective Support the creation jobs in priority sectors using BOI, NEXIM and other national development banks as fulcrums. Through the provision of: N50bn MSME de-risking facility N100bn Intervention Fund for the health sector N150bn Capitalisation Fund for priority sectors N50bn Export Expansion facility Priority Areas Healthcare, Agro Processing, Food Processing, Creative Industry, Local Oil & Gas, and Export Sector. Guiding Principle Support the resilience of existing businesses to respond to the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pan- demic in identified priority sectors (of which 40% are female-owned) to retain and create jobs. Project Elements • Engage Deposit Money Bank partners. • Invite applications from intending beneficiaries. • Verify and screen the applications from bidding MSMEs. • Develop and sign contract with beneficiaries. • Make disbursements based on agreements. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Bank of Industry (Programme Steering Committee) Timeline 12 months Estimated Cost N350,000,000,000.00 56 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Track 4 Objective Support continuing production of MSMEs in the food and drug sector during the COVID-19 era. Guiding Principle Support the resilience of existing businesses to respond to the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Project Elements • Implement zero charges for first 200 micro and small businesses to register products. • Implement 80% reduction in charges for product registration of micro and small businesses for a period of 6 months (until November 2020). • Provide waivers on administrative renewal of expired product licences for micro and small businesses for 3 months. Implementing Structure National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control Timeline 0 - 6 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 57

17. Moving People and Goods: Road Construction and Rehabilitation Road construction and rehabilitation is essential to boost eco- as ensure the structural integrity of bridges and hydraulic struc- nomic activity by easing the transportation of goods and per- tures. sons. Other key FERMA interventions are the Stakeholders Assisted Using a labour-intensive approach, this project will cover the Right of Way Maintenance Intervention Programme (SHAROW- construction and maintenance of federal highways, roads, and MIP); strategic economic and petroleum products route mainte- bridges as well as road interventions within federal tertiary insti- nance and maintenance of roads in tertiary and research insti- tutions all across the country. tutions. This SHAROW-MIP programme is aimed at creating jobs by involving communities in vegetation management and silt In addition, the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) will control in order to enhance visibility, safety and security along undertake interventions to maintain strategic roads nationwide; critical federal highways. It will now be complemented by a post provide, maintain and manage connecting corridors with Spe- COVID-19 intervention to reduce bottlenecks that severely re- cial Agro-Industrial Processing Zones across the country; install strict the flow of food, fuel and medical supplies and thus en- and maintain street lighting to enhance highway security; as well hance the speed of delivery of these vital items. 58 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Objective Using local materials, create 296,000 jobs in the construction and rehabilitation of roads in the 6 geo-political zones of the country. Guiding Principle Utilise a construction and maintenance approach that is labour-intensive to improve the national road network. Project Elements • Mapping of roads requiring repairs and interventions, including to vital economic installations in order to optimise economic activity and speed up transportation of people and goods. • Provision of finance to pay engineers, foremen, and labourers and to buy materials for road construction and repairs such as granite, bitumen, cement. • Rehabilitation/Construction of Roads and Bridges across the 6 geopolitical zones of the country, including road intervention within Federal Tertiary Institutions. • Close collaboration with State Governments implementing the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones. • Engagement with communities and stakeholders especially on improving visibility, safety and security on the roads. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Works and Housing Estimated Cost N 60,000,000,000.00 Timeline 12 Months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 59

18. Building A Resilient Health Sector The current pandemic has accentuated the need for a robust will be brought to bear on the effort to transform public second- healthcare system. National efforts in this regard are hinged on ary and tertiary health institutions into self-administering and four key priorities, namely, boosting the response to the COV- self-sustaining enterprises with the capacity to manufacture ba- ID-19 pandemic, ensuring access of every Nigerian to qualita- sic commodities and consumables like intravenous fluids, laun- tive health services based on the prioritisation of primary health dry soap, surgical gloves, bed sheets and pillowcases, nurses care, building preparedness for the threat posed by infectious and doctors uniforms, etc. diseases and boosting local research and development efforts aimed at the production of medical and pharmaceutical resourc- While steps are being taken to expand the National Health Insur- es. ance Scheme to cover all citizens, the protection of health work- ers on the front lines of addressing COVID-19 and other infec- Immediate efforts are targeted at ramping up local production tious diseases shall be a priority. To this end, the Nigeria Social of materials such as Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs), hand Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) shall provide insurance coverage sanitisers, face masks and other resources for infection control. for health workers across all tiers of government as well as in With a functional financial resource pooling mechanism in place the private sector. to cover the healthcare of citizens, the private sector support 60 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Objective Develop a robust health system with the capacity to withstand shocks. Guiding Principle Ensuring resilience in health sector systems. Project Elements • Create a single national pool of resources for the purchasing of a defined package of health services to foster broader risk sharing and reduce duplication of effort. • Expand universal health insurance to cover the poorest and most vulnerable by linking the National Health Insurance Scheme to the National Social Register. • Accelerate implementation of the Basic Health Care Provision Fund (BHCPF) to achieve at least a 65% increase in the share of the population covered by primary healthcare by 2023. • NSITF to launch insurance scheme for health workers to cover exposure to COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. • Ensure access to power for health clinics through stand-alone systems or micro-grids (where necessary). • Establish a favourable tariff regime to support domestic pharmaceutical companies and allied manufacturers. • Support domestic pharmaceutical companies to meet WHO prequalification criteria, and overcome a major challenge to production for export. • Mobilise private sector resources to contribute to various health funds and services such as the National Emergency Health Fund or Basic Healthcare Provision Fund (BHCPF), health infrastructure development and granting incentives like tax exemptions. • Support local research and development efforts aimed at production of medical and pharmaceutical resources including vaccines and consumables. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Health Estimated Cost N 198,936,000,000.00 Timeline 12 months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 61

19. WASH Emergency Response to Covid-19 As part of the public health response and to strengthen resil- (i.) Partnership for expanded Water Supply, Sanitation and ience against the spread of infectious disease, there will be a Hygiene (PEWASH) for rapid improvement of WASH concerted effort to increase water supply to public utilities and activities in rural areas public places, including markets, IDP camps, isolation and test- (ii.) National WASH Action Plan to strengthen WASH ing centres. Beyond the emergency phase, there will be a scale- governance institutions and service provision up of the following already launched national initiatives: (iii.) Clean Nigeria Campaign against Open Defecation Objective Fast-track the implementation of the National WASH programme Guiding Principle Contribute to public health strategies to increase pandemic preparedness. Project Elements • Establish a WASH Sector COVID-19 National Response Committee. • Provision of Safe Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene Services in public places to improve access to running water supply to facilitate handwashing practices at COVID-19 isolation centres, testing locations, markets, motor parks, schools and to vulnerable areas including IDP camps. • Provision of sustainable power solutions for water provision, where required, e.g. stand-alone solar powered bore holes and water heaters. • Provision of emergency support to water and sanitation utilities to ensure continuity of water supply and emergency measures to ensure that water utility staff have protective equipment, priority for testing and salary supplements for additional workload on health workers and related personnel. • Public advocacy on hand-washing. Implementing Structure WASH Sector COVID-19 National Response Committee Estimated Cost N10,290,525,000 Timeline 12 months 62 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

20. Social Investment Programme In view of current challenges, the existing Social Investment Pro- ployment or entrepreneurship opportunities. A monthly stipend grammes will be expanded to offer greater and wider protection of N30,000 will be paid to each beneficiary during the period. to the most vulnerable persons and communities: Cash Transfers will be expanded to cover an additional 1 million Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme households. (GEEP): To stimulate economic activity, the programme will con- The National Home Grown School Feeding Programme will be tinue providing loans to vulnerable micro, small and medium expanded to all States of the Federation. participating persons enterprises, starting from N10,000. As part of the Covid-19 re- will be paid through their account numbers, telephone lines or sponse, the moratorium will be extended for at least 3 months. in cash. The programmes will deepen financial inclusion by bringing a N-Power: The N-Power Programme will continue to provide job proportion of the 36.8% of the adult population said to be finan- opportunities to Nigerian youths aged 18 – 35 on a year to year cially excluded into the financial system. To achieve this, mobile basis following which the beneficiaries will be exited into em- money and agent networks will be leveraged. Objective Increase support to vulnerable individuals and households in the context of COVID-19. Increase reach and access to key social programmes while dampening the effects of the adverse Guiding Principle economic and health impacts of the global pandemic on low income earners and the poor. Project Elements • Enroll one caregiver (and one alternate) per household and start disbursement of Cash Transfers to all the 2,644,495 households captured on the National Social Register of Poor and Vulnerable Households. • Expand social register, enroll and disburse cash transfers to an additional 1 million households. • Expand the school feeding programmes to all States of the Federation. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development Estimated Cost N 87,063,566,666.67 Timeline 12 Months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 63

21. Aviation The Aviation industry has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pan- supply lines for essential and cargo flights open. demic as over 90% of its activities and operations have been ad- versely affected, resulting in losses that are valued at N21bn on It is also proposed to fast track the establishment of a private a monthly basis. Emphasis is therefore placed on ensuring the sector driven national carrier to generate revenue and contrib- recovery of the sector, and providing financial support where ute to GDP, while creating activity in the wider economy for sup- necessary to ensure that the sector not just survives, but also pliers, importers, exporters and manufacturers. sustains air connectivity to keep passenger traffic as well as Objective Save existing aviation industry organisations and jobs, through a targeted stimulus package and fast track the establishment of a private sector driven national carrier. Guiding Principle Strengthen the aviation sector so that it survives and creates job opportunities and supports general economic activity including transport logistics. Project Elements • Extend grant support including payroll support to the aviation industry including airlines, handlers, caterers and related services. • Provision of single digit soft loans, with long term repayment plan. • Deferred payment of taxes and filing dates. • Ensure the removal of Value Added Tax VAT) from airline tickets as approved by FEC. • Provision of COVID-19 tests for all passengers and crew. • Waiver of airport rent fees to airport operators for the duration of the lockdown plus one month. • Begin processes for establishment of private sector-driven national carrier. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Aviation Estimated Cost N 27,000,000,000.00 Timeline 12 Months 64 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

22. Ensuring Continuous Learning - Education The immediate focus in the Education sector is to address the The project will be delivered over 36 months to accommodate disruptions caused by the pandemic and ensuing social distanc- the longer lead times in the education sector while addressing ing measures at all levels of education. Practical steps will be the incidence of Out-Of-School Children (OOSC). It is expected taken to minimise disruption to learning, utilising technology as that with the structures that are established by this project, a appropriate. Specifically, virtual learning will be implemented major post-project benefit will be the eradication of the inci- (either online or through broadcast), virtual convocation cere- dence of OOSC within five years. monies or issuance of certificates (with postponed ceremonies) should be implemented to continue educational progression. The project will generate accurate and verifiable education data necessary for planning and decision-making and will involve ex- In similar context, consideration will be given to suspending the tensive stakeholder engagement at State and local government National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) Orientation Camp Exercis- levels as well as private sector engagement to understand needs es for at least 24 months while allowing deployment to places of as well as sensitise local populations on skills development and primary assignment. This will ensure that there is no backlog in entrepreneurship. The project will create employment opportu- the National Service placement pipeline. Going forward, steps nities for qualified graduates and will develop the required pro- will also be taken to address three key issues in the educational ficiency of the teaching professionals in those critical subjects sector - The incidence of Out of School Children, the national that underpin productivity, efficiency and innovation in a mod- shortage of basic education teachers and the urgent need to de- ern economy. velop proficiency in STEM/TVET and digital literacy on a national level. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 65 Objective Minimise disruption to learning at all levels of education. Guiding Principle Utilise practical measures to ensure that learning continues during the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 school years. Project Elements • Develop regulations to ensure that learning is not disrupted during the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 school years in particular, virtual convocation ceremonies or issuance of certificates with postponed convocation ceremonies. • Develop standards for remote learning curriculum (online or via broadcast). • Map the incidence of OOSC in 774 Local Government Areas and engage key local stakeholders. • Establish a vocational skill acquisition centre in each of the 774 Local Government Areas. • Identify qualifying unemployed graduates to initiate the recruitment process for new teachers. • Identify qualifying candidates for apprenticeship and artisan development programmes. • Engage industry and different sectors to identify relevant skills and competences required to guarantee employment in their sectors. • Identify locations for National Institute of Technology to be established in 6 geopolitical zones and FCT. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Education, Federal Ministry of Youth and Sports Timeline 12 months 66 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

23. Science and Technology This project will address the establishment of a viable Science Innovation to increase agricultural and livestock and Innovation ecosystem for the country especially by integrat- productivity ing the use of science and technology in the agricultural, housing • Increasing energy reliance through sustainable Research and roads and solar power projects in this Plan. and Development (R & D) in renewable and alternative energy sources Key aspects of the project are as follows: • Establishment of programmes for utilisation and • Monitoring and Review of the National Policy on Science, commercialisation of research outputs from Federal Technology and Innovation to attain nationally-defined Institutes by Small Business. objectives • Establishment of Science and Technology Parks across • Acquisition and application of Science, Technology and the Country Objective Establishment of an economically viable Science and Innovation ecosystem in Nigeria. Guiding Principle Utilise the Science and Innovation system to support entrepreneurship and economic recovery. Project Elements • Update and implement the 2012 Science, Technology and Innovation Policy. • Establish Science and Technology Parks across the country. • Rationalise, Revitalise and Reposition all Federal Research Institutes. • Establish programmes for utilisation and commercialization of research outputs from Federal Research Institutes. • Actively collaborate with the private sector to create a large number of well-paid jobs for Nigerian youths. • Provide support to research on the reduction of post-harvest losses of Agricultural produce. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Science and Technology Estimated Cost N144,117,052,900.00 Timeline 12 Months Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 67

24. Internal Security Sector The COVID-19 outbreak has impacted the Ministry of Interior agencies are seeking for ways to ease the operations of busi- in several ways including border closure and travel restrictions, nesses that they engage with and ensure the safety of inmates restrictions of business activities, cessation of issuance of pass- in correctional facilities through activities such as the comple- ports and visas, inability of some companies to promptly renew tion of 3000 Maximum Capacity Custodial Centres and the intro- their expatriate quota positions, evacuation of foreigners and duction of revenue-generating and cost-saving technologies. All congestion in correctional centres. these will be implemented as the Ministry enhances the capacity of its agencies to assist in the maintenance of peace and order Given the more focused COVID-19 related tasks that now have across the nation. to be performed across its many agencies, the Ministry and its Objective Strengthen the national capacity to manage immigration, correctional facilities and public safety post-COVID-19. Guiding Principle Using appropriate technology to facilitate the business operations of the Ministry of Interior. Project Elements • Ensure reduced processing time for the Ministry’s business operations and the continued issuance of travel and residency documents including expatriate quotas, passports and driving licenses. • Enhance inmate health and safety in existing facilities. • Rehabilitate custodial centres and barracks nationwide and maintain existing infrastructure. • Implement revenue generating schemes and cost-saving technologies while improving service delivery. • Implement training programmes for Agro Rangers and NSCDC to enhance their effectiveness in protecting the population and in maintenance of peace and order. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Interior Estimated Cost N 2,394,058,948 Timeline 12 Months 68 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

25. Solid Minerals This project aims to develop artisanal and small-scale mining for level of employment in all business activities related to the min- economic growth and development in Nigeria. The promotion ing cluster, increase in the rate and exportation of value-added and fostering of cluster development is expected to rapidly spur products and services as well as attract foreign investments. job creation. This will also agglomerate ASM producers, custom- ers and competitors based on geographical proximity or linked The target area for the implementation of the project is the by complementary expertise which will promote efficiency and known ASM high density States in Nigeria, including Osun (gold increase specialisation and production. mining), Zamfara (gold mining), Kaduna, Niger (gold mining), Bauchi (kaolin & coltan), Nasarawa, Gombe (gypsum) and Pla- It is expected that the development of clusters will create sus- teau (tin) states. The aim is to set-up a cluster in each geopolitical tainable competitive advantages via the development of down- zone stream mining industries, the generation of new start-up com- panies, increase in the level of competitive inputs and in the Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 69 Objective Establish a programme to organise artisanal miners and develop the mineral value-chain in 6 geo-political zones. Guiding Principle Deepen artisanal and small-scale mining for economic growth. Project Elements • Improving the infrastructure for economic actors and creating an environment for the emergence of subsidiary and service-oriented companies that will boost further economic activity. • ASM Co-operative Registrations - The number of ASM co-operative licenses registered with the Ministry of Mines and Steel can be monitored and utilised to measure the formalised direct employment rates in the mining industry. • Collection of biometric, BVN and identity data. Data collection is important for transparency, analysis, decision-making and planning purposes. • Reporting on Royalty Payments • Ensuring that each Authorised Processing Facility keeps a register that keeps information on the type, physical characteristics and quantity of development minerals present in different stages of commerce as is required by the applicable regulations. Implementing Structure Ministry of Mines and Steel Development Estimated Cost N6,000,000,000 Timeline 12 months 70 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan

26. Digital Switch Over Programme The ongoing national Digital Switch Over Programme (DSO) will Local licensed manufacturers will expand production of compo- be accelerated to support the process of the Analogue Switch nents for the DSO equipment under the accelerated DSO pro- Off (ASO) freeing up the spectrum for resale and deliver the ben- gramme. Other benefits of the programme will include an in- efits of Digital Television. The DSO will underpin the develop- crease in digital television penetration across the country and ment of a sound digital economy in Nigeria, create jobs around provide an opportunity for increased revenue generation from the manufacturing, installation and maintenance of associated the sale of the vacated spectrum. The DSO programme will re- equipment and expand jobs in the creative sector (including duce the cost of internet services and increase broadband pen- presenters, producers, content creators, actors) which will now etration in Nigeria as well as provide opportunities for audience have enhanced outlets for distribution of creative content. management which will add value to the Nigerian advertising sector. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 71 Objective Fast-track the implementation of the National Digital Switch Over Programme. Guiding Principle Strengthen digital infrastructure. Project Elements • Develop digital infrastructure in strategic locations and gap fillers installed in difficult to reach areas. • Engagement with equipment manufacturers to expand manufacturing in preparation for roll-out. • Implement a public engagement campaign on the DSO Programme for adaptation. • Develop amendments to the National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) Act to meet the needs of the DSO Programme. • Establish a content development fund to improve content. • Establish a test factory to ensure DSO equipment meet specified standards • Strengthen monitoring facilities of the NBC to meet the regulatory needs in the digital era and buy-back of analogue transmitters. Implementing Structure Federal Ministry of Information and Culture Estimated Cost N15,000,000,000.00 Timeline 12 months 72 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Delivering the Plan • meeting project requirements Collaboration between public and private sector to measure results • Adoption of clear accountability framework and monitoring The success of this Economic Sustainability Plan depends on deliv- mechanism ery. This is because the circumstances in which the plan is being • Active oversight by ESC developed requires that the depth of the recession is ameliorat- ed. Delivery also lies at the core of the ESP because the projects it contains are not new but rather the processes and arrangements Implementation Framework to be put in place for achieving desired results. In agriculture for instance, the approach would be to tackle all the constraints across • The Economic Sustainability Committee and the National the value chain simultaneously using methods and practices that Economic Council which are chaired by the Vice President have been proved to work in Nigeria. Clearly, successful implemen- and report to the President is responsible for providing tation of the ESP would also require that a number of cross-cutting overall strategic vision, policy direction and general oversight items be addressed. The importance of identification became ap- of implementation. parent during the COVID-19 crisis especially for the distribution of palliatives but also for extending support to household enterprises. • Ministerial Implementation Committee chaired by the Similarly important is the capacity of the public service to interface Federal Ministers in the relevant sectors shall be successfully with the private sector to ensure the achievement of responsible for ensuring synergy between stakeholders desired results. across Ministries, Departments and Agencies and the private sector. They shall also drive the execution of specific projects, coordinate the entire sectoral value chain and ensure Delivery Elements resolution of bottlenecks impeding implementation. • Establishment of clear priorities • Project Monitors constituted by combined public and private • Articulation of detailed action plans in each sector sector teams shall be responsible for facilitating • Clarity in time-frame of projects problem-solving, stakeholder engagement forums that bring • Stipulation of desired results and outcomes together government and private sector actors, ensuring • Use of private sector agents with track record of delivery or Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 73 results and quality assurance and reporting to the Economic Sustainability Committee. The National Monitoring & Evaluation and the Budget Office of the Federation shall be responsible for the monitoring and evaluation of all expenditure in line with their statutory responsibilities pursuant to section 4 of the National Planning Commission Act, 1993 as well as section 30 and 50 of the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 respectively. Furthermore, this will ensure compliance with signed agreements with IMF, World Bank and other Multi-lateral agencies with regards to the budget support facilities for Transparency, accountability and Post Audit of all COVID-19 expenditures”. • The ESC Secretariat shall interface with the Project Monitors, serve as the link between the ESC and Project Monitors, work with project monitors to develop primers for ESP sectors and generally provide support to the ESC, the Sectoral Task Forces and project monitors. 74 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 75 76 Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan