Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) Submission by Mongolia to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP)

1. Timeframe Up to 2030

2. Type of contribution Policies and measures

3. Target level 3a. National contribution By 2030, Mongolia intends to contribute to global efforts to mitigate GHG emissions by implementing the policies and measures listed in Table 1, contingent upon the continuation of international support to complement domestic efforts. Table 1. Policies and measures for implementation up to 2030 Policy/strategy Sector Measure document Increase renewable electricity capacity from 7.62% in 2014 to 20% by 2020 and to 30% by 2030 as a share of total electricity generation capacity. Reduce electricity transmission losses from 13.7% in 2014 to 10.8% by 2020 and to 7.8% by 2030. State policy on energy Energy Reduce building heat loss by 20% by 2020 and by 40% by 2030, (Parliament resolution (power and No. 63, 2015), Green compared to 2014 levels. heat) development policy, Reduce internal energy use of Combined Heat and Power plants 2014 (improved plant efficiency) from 14.4% in 2014 to 11.2% by 2020 and 9.14% by 2030. Implement advanced technology in energy production such as super critical pressure coal combustion technology by 2030. Improve national paved road network. Upgrading/Paving 8000 km by 2016, 11000 km by 2021. National Action Programme on Climate Improve Ulaanbaatar city road network to decrease all traffic by Change (NAPCC), 30-40% by 2023. 2011; Urban public Increase the share of private hybrid road vehicles from transport investment Energy approximately 6.5% in 2014 to approximately 13% by 2030. programme, 2015; (Transport) Shift from liquid fuel to LPG for vehicles in Ulaanbaatar and Nationally Appropriate aimag (province) centres by improving taxation and Mitigation Actions environmental fee system. (NAMAs), 2010; Mid- term new development Improve enforcement mechanism of standards for road vehicles programme, 2010 and non-road based transport. Reduce emissions in the cement industry through upgrading the NAMAs, 2010; NAPCC, processing technology from wet- to dry- processing and through 2011; Government Industrial resolution No. 171, sector the construction of a new cement plant with dry processing up to 2012: Building materials 2030. programme Maintain livestock population at appropriate levels according to Mongolian national Agriculture livestock programme, the pasture carrying capacity. 2010 2 3b. Additional actions Mongolia is also interested to pursue some additional mitigation actions:  Reduce fuel use in individual households through improving stove efficiency (with co-benefit of air pollution reduction),  Transport (development of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system and improvement of the public transport system in Ulaanbaatar),  Agriculture (development of a comprehensive plan for emission reductions in the livestock sub-sector for implementation between 2020 and 2030),  Waste sector (development of a waste management plan, including recycling, waste-to-energy, and best management practices),  Industry (motor-efficiency and housekeeping improvements). Furthermore, in the forestry sector, a programme is underway to develop a detailed inventory along with the identification of mitigation options. In future communications, Mongolia intends to include actions for mitigation in the forestry sector to reduce GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation by 2% by 2020 and 5% by 2030 (according to State policy on forest, 2015).

4. Sectors The INDC of Mongolia includes proposed measures and additional actions for energy (including transport), industrial processes, agriculture and waste. Projected emissions by sector for 2010 and 2030 are shown in Figure 1. 2010 2030 (forecast) 21.9 Mt CO2-eq. 51.2 Mt CO2-eq. Waste, Waste, Agriculture, 0.70% 0.60% Agriculture 13.40% , 29.20% Industry, 4.50% Energy, Energy, Industry, 81.50% 63.90% 6.20% 1 Figure 1. GHG emissions share by sector in 2010 and 2030 [forecast, excluding LULUCF]. GHG emissions, reported here, exclude LULUCF sector, which are currently being estimated through the preparation of a national GHG inventory, within scope of the responsibility of the Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism of Mongolia (MEGDT).

5. GHG emission reductions In order to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding, this section provides an indicative estimate of potential emission reductions for the measures targeting all major GHG gases (CO 2, CH4, N2O) in the sectors mentioned. The cumulative impact of the measures listed in Table 1 is estimated to result in approximately an annual reduction of 7.3 Mt CO2-eq. of economy-wide emissions in 2030, corresponding to a 14% reduction compared 1 The Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism (MNET), UNEP: Mongolia Second National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ulaanbaatar, 2010 3 to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, excluding LULUCF. Total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) 50 Total potential emissions reduction of 14% in 2030 40 BAU (Mt CO2-eq.) Mitigation scenario 30 Potential reductions Energy: power and heat 4.9 Mt CO2-eq. Industry 20 0.7 Mt CO2-eq. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Energy: transport 1.7 Mt CO2-eq. Figure 2. Indicative potential emission reductions of the measures compared to BAU emissions

6. Accounting methodologies The latest official GHG emissions inventory was compiled for the year 2006 using the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, as described in Mongolia’s Second National Communication (SNC). The projected emissions for 2010, as indicated in this document, were presented in the SNC. The BAU baseline was defined according to the methodology given in Mongolia’s SNC. Indicative emission reductions were determined using LEAP modelling (energy: power and heat; energy: transport) and Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (industry). A description of the methodology could be found in the INDC detailed report. The potential impact of agricultural emission reduction measures could not be estimated due to lack of available background information, and are thus not included in the indicative estimate. Actual and forecast emission reductions will be recalculated annually, based on improved data availability and appropriate adjustments to the BAU baseline’s assumptions.

7. Fairness and ambition Mongolia has a low responsibility for climate change mitigation in terms of its historic emissions, and limited capacity due to relatively challenging environmental conditions including a long lasting heating season, a coal based electricity production system, a lack of access to cleaner fossil fuels and a highly dispersed population particularly in remote areas (lack of access to the electricity grid). This has led to a high emissions per capita ratio. Mongolia is committed to the decarbonisation of its growing economy and intends to reduce its emissions intensity by implementing the proposed measures. The proposed targets have their origins in the Green Development Policy of Mongolia, which is an over- arching and comprehensive approach to deliver low-carbon economic growth taking into account national circumstances in the context of its sustainable development. This ambitious strategy mainstreams both mitigation and adaptation in a way to reduce social and environmental vulnerability. Parliamentary approval of the most significant energy measures, and corresponding commitment to implement an important part of the mitigation actions with domestic means, demonstrates the ambition of the Mongolian Government.

8. Planning process and means of implementation Planning Processes The Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism is the key ministry to develop, update and implement climate related policies. In addition, other line ministries including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry 4 of Energy, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Building and Urban Development, Ministry of Road and Transport and Ministry of Agriculture will be involved. The elaboration of this INDC involved a multi-stakeholder process and consultations with key public bodies. It is largely based on existing legal frameworks and adopted policies of the Mongolian government, approved by the Parliament. Domestic legally-binding legislation already in place includes:  Green development policy, 2014 (2014-2030)  National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC), 2011 (2011-2021)  State policy on energy, 2015 (2015-2030)  National agriculture development policy, 2010 (2010-2021)  State policy on forest, 2015 (2016-2030)  MDGs based comprehensive national development programme, 2008 (2008-2021)  Law on renewable energy, 2015  Law on energy, 2015  State policy on Industry, 2015 (2015-2030) Majority of the development and climate policies and programmes cover periods up to 2016 and 2020. Thus, during the period of 2016-2020, Mongolia will elaborate relevant policy documents for consultation at the national level for its development and national climate policies for the period 2021-2030. Progress towards the fulfilment of the contribution will be assessed through an annual review of the implementation progress of the proposed policies and measures. Means of implementation The measures outlined in this INDC have been presented as legislation and/or proposed in national development strategies and plans. As such, responsibility for implementation will follow existing institutional arrangements that define roles and responsibilities for the relevant sectors. In order to successfully implement the policies and measures as part of this contribution (Table 1), as well as the proposed additional measures (described in section 3b), Mongolia will seek international funding, capacity building and technology supports to complement its domestic resource allocations and efforts. Mongolia will articulate its specific needs, and communicate the potential supporting role of the international community. As a preliminary indication, some specific measures that will be important to reach the proposed targets are described in Table 2, with estimated investment needs of 3.5 billion USD. The anticipated financing modalities will be described at a later date, but a substantial private sector share is expected (leveraged by public funds) to be a part of the funding. Mongolia is interested in opportunities to access international climate funds namely the Green Climate Fund and in participation with crediting mechanisms to implement these measures. Table 2. Policies and measures for implementation up to 2030 Stated contribution Specific measures Investment needs Source Increase the share of Installation of 675 MW 1,350 million USD LEAP analysis with renewable electricity capacity large hydro power costs based on capacity to 30% of total facilities. average of IPCC 2 electricity generation Installation of 354 MW 584 million USD data capacity by 2030, from wind power facilities. 7.62% in 2014. Installation of 145 MW 573 million USD solar PV power facilities. Reduce building heat loss Improved insulation for 90 million USD Technology Needs by 40% by 2030, compared existing panel apartment Assessment (TNA), to 2010 levels. buildings of 18,184 2013 households in Ulaanbaatar. Improved efficiency of coal Improved efficiency of coal 900 million USD TNA, 2013 fired heating plants and fired plants. thermal power plants. 2 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/SRREN_FD_SPM_final.pdf 5 Annex B: Adaptation component

1. Rationale for Adaptation Considering the importance of adaptation to climate change in Mongolia, this adaptation component has been included in the INDC, due to its high degree of vulnerability to climate change. It is based on a detailed analysis of the anticipated impacts of climate change and those challenges would pose to socio- economic development. Adaptation targets have been identified, along with the funding, capacity, and technologies necessary to achieve them. Implementing these actions will support sustainable development and improve Mongolia’s resilience to climate change. There is a need further to use more differentiated approaches such as defining the role of passive adaptation based on traditional ways of life, active adaptation based on gained knowledge and experiences, and proactive adaptation involving modern technology and know-how.

2. Summary of climate change trends, impacts and vulnerabilities The annual mean air temperature over Mongolia has increased by 2.07°C from 1940 to 2014. The ten warmest years in the last 70 years have occurred since 1997. In this period, annual precipitation has decreased slightly and the seasonal rainfall pattern has changed: winter precipitation has gradually increased and summer rain has decreased in some regions. Climate projections show intensification of st these changes in the first half of the 21 century. Some of the key impacts and vulnerabilities are:  Approximately 70% of pastoral land has degraded, while changing plant composition.  Winter dzud (heavy snow, cold waves, storms etc.) risk is likely to increase leading to more losses in livestock sector.  Non-irrigated crop production is becoming more unstable. Assessments show that wheat production might be decreased by 15% by 2030 due to climate change.  The drying up of lakes, rivers and springs and melting of glaciers has intensified in the last decades. The recent surface water resource inventory confirmed that 12% of rivers, 21% of lakes and 15% of springs have dried up. Water temperature and evaporation are continuously increasing, leading to declining water resources.  The intensification of dry climatic conditions cause the increase of the frequency of forest and steppe fires, the occurrence and the intensity of forest insect and pest outbreaks. As a result, the forest area is reduced by 0.46% annually, and forest resources have been degraded significantly.  The frequency of extreme weather phenomena has doubled in the last two decades. This is expected to increase by 23-60% by the middle of the century as compared to present conditions. Assessment of current and future impact of climate change confirms that animal husbandry, arable farming, human health, and natural resources including water, forest, pasture and soil are the most vulnerable sectors in Mongolia, and also reinforces the importance of natural disaster management.

3. Long and short-term adaptation visions, goals and targets Vision for adaptation: Increased adaptive capacity to overcome negative impacts of climate change, and to strengthen resilience of ecosystem and socio-economic sectors. Adaptation aims to reduce risks and vulnerabilities for the following sectors:  Animal husbandry aims to maintain ecosystem balance through improving pasture management.  Arable farming aspires to meet the total national need in crops by reducing bare fallow and soil moisture loss, introducing medium and long-term varieties of crops, increased irrigation with water saving technologies including snow, and rain water harvesting. 6  Water resources sector’s objectives are to expand state protected areas covering especially river headwater areas, where 70% of water resources are formed, to ensure proper use of water resources, and to strengthen integrated water resource management in river basins.  Forest resource aims to reduce forest degradation, and to implement re-forestation and sustainable forest management strategies.  Natural disaster management seeks to build effective disaster management to prevent environmental and socio-economic losses. Some adaptation activities under these goals will also have mitigation co-benefits:  Improving pasture management would increase the carbon sink of CO 2 equivalent to 29 million tons per year, which is equal to 1/3 of emission reduction in energy sector.  Reducing bare fallow to 30% in rain-fed crop land, increasing variety of crops, zero-tillage and crop rotation would consequently increase a carbon sink.  Increasing protected areas up to 25-30% of the total territory will help maintain natural ecosystems and preserve water resources with a certain synergy effects for emission reduction.  Increasing forest area up to 9.0% by 2030 and reducing forest fire affected area by 30% would conserve ecosystems and increase carbon sink. In general, carbon sinks of natural ecosystems will be increased with a capacity to absorb almost a half of the CO2 emissions from energy sector in the country by implementing adaptation policies in agriculture, forestry, and water resource sectors.

4. Current and planned adaptation undertakings Animal husbandry and pasture: Every year, around 1.0 million USD is allocated from Government budget to facilitate scientific, environmentally sound measures against pasture insects and rodents. Monitoring system for pasture and soil has been created and is being strengthened. Existing national policy documents include strategic objectives to protect pasture, which occupy about 80% of the territory. These objectives include improved pasture management, regulation of livestock numbers and herds’ composition by matching with pasture carrying capacities, improved animal breeds, and regional development of intensified animal farming. Arable farming: As of 2015, the total cropland has been accounted as 750 thousand ha and 450 thousand ha is re-used cropland, which was abandoned. Drip irrigation systems have been experimented since 1997 and currently used for limited area of vegetable field. Water resource: As of 2015, state protected area covers 17.4% of the total national land including a certain part of river headwater areas. Integrated river basin management plans have been developed for 7 river basins out of the planned 29. Forestry: Community based forest resource management has been introduced and about 20% of the forest area is currently under protection of community forestry groups, which comprise 74.8% of the total community groups on environmental protection. Multi-purpose forest resource inventory is under the process.

5. Gaps and barriers Mongolia faces some challenges in mobilization of its full potential to achieve the adaptation goals and targets. Major barriers include:  A lack of funding, financial incentives and investments.  Challenges to introduce advanced new technologies and equipment due to lack of domestic 7 production.  Weak management of disaster risks at local level, weak and inadequate early warning systems for prevention of droughts and dzuds, a lack of an enabling legal environment.  Weak coordination and integration among various sectors.  Insufficient human resources capacity and a lack of technical training on climate change and limited engagement of academic institutions.  Weak monitoring and evaluation system for sectors, climate events and programmes.

6. Summary of adaptation needs Based on current adaptation undertakings and gaps, the needs to achieve adaptation goals and targets for 2021-2030 are given in (Table 3). Rough estimations of adaptation measures, listed in Table 3, shows that in the future Mongolia will need around 3.4 billion USD for funding in technology and capacity building. Up to 80% of total need expected to be financed from international sources and donor institutions. Table 3. Adaptation needs (2021-2030) Sector Adaptation Adaptation Needs goals Targets Capacity Technology Financial (international, investments), million USD Animal -To -Reduce rate of -To create -To build an 46.0 husbandry implement pasture regulations for early warning and sustainable degradation pasture use system for pastures pasture -Regulate -To set up drought and management headcounts and taxation system dzuds to types of animals for pasture use prevent animal including wild -To increase loss animals to community -To improve match with participation in livestock pasture carrying proper use of quality and capacities pastures, their breeds monitoring and -To improve conservation livestock health (epidemic and infectious diseases) management Arable -To increase -To reduce bare -To create -To diffuse 150.0 farming irrigated fallow to 30% regulations on zero-tillage cropland, -To introduce soil protection technology reduce soil crop rotation (soil texture, -To increase water loss system with 3-4 nutrient and variety of and routes and 3-5 moisture) crops and decrease soil crops rotation carbon -To expand -To introduce emissions irrigated effective drip cropland by 2- irrigation 2.5 times technology reducing water use by 2.5-5.0 times 8 Water -To maintain -30 % of the -To implement -To implement 5.0 resources availability of territory will be Integrated water ecosystem water state protected resource based resources by 2030 and management technologies through sustainable systems -To support protection of financial -To coordinate ecosystem runoff mechanism will multi-stakeholder services formation be introduced relations through through zones and improved legal hydrological their native policies and monitoring, ecosystems efficient construction of in river management water basins -To strengthen diversion human resource canals to lakes capacity to deal located in with technical flood plains issues and re- forestation actions -To construct -To create water - To enhance - 1800.0 reservoirs for reservoirs at hydrological glacier melt rivers and at monitoring and water outlets of lakes, research for river harvesting and to construct flow regulation multipurpose -To construct -To regulate systems of water water reservoirs river streams use and water and flows diversion facilities to transfer water resources to dry regions -To introduce -To find solutions - To conduct -To introduce 605.0 water saving (and studies and new and water subsequently introduce technologies treatment implement) for sustainable for water technologies sustainable water supply saving, and water supply in with closed treatment Ulaanbaatar and systems for industries preventing and mining in evaporation loss the Gobi region Forest -To increase -Forest area will -To build -To introduce 11.0 resource efficiency of be increased to capacity of technology to reforestation 9% by 2030 community plant actions through forestry groups seedlings reforestation to conduct activities modern technologies for forest seedlings and tree plantations -To reduce -To reduce forest -To set up fully -To use 13.0 forest degradation rate equipped airplanes to degradation caused by stations fighting fight against rate human activities, forest fires and fires fires, insects and insects outburst -To introduce diseases and capacity biological building technologies against insects 9 and pests -To improve -To make forests -To provide -To improve 7.0 effectiveness resilient to equipment and efficiency of of forest climate change machineries to forest cleaning management by improving carry out forest technologies their productivity cleaning and changing activities their composition -To train human and structure resources for forest management practices Natural -To enhance -To strengthen -To establish -To improve 65.4 disaster and improve early warning early detection forecast management early warning system for and prediction quality through and natural disasters system increasing prevention -To conduct super systems for disaster risk computer natural assessments at capacity disasters local and sub- -To establish national levels Doppler radar network covering entire territory of the country

7. Monitoring and reporting process Monitoring of climate change adaptation measures will be conducted in an integrated way as per the existing national programmes. Required funding for adaptation measures, listed in Table 3, could be provided from State budget, Government special funds, international funds and through other financial mechanisms. Monitoring will be based on achievement of adaptation goals and targets. Baselines and targets for indicators will be assessed quantitatively and qualitatively at every phase of its implementation. ------ xXx ------ 10