National Adaptation Plan of the Republic of the Marshall Islands

1.1 Our NAP Vision  30

1.2 Guiding Principles National Self-Determination 30

1.3 Country Overview 33

1.4 Why We Need a Climate Adaptation Survival Plan 35

1.5 The UNFCCC National Adaptation Process 36

1.6 How The RMI NAP Was Developed 38

1.7 How The NAP Will Be Used 39

1.7.1 By National Stakeholders 39

1.7.2 By International Partners 40

1.8 NAP Scope, Bounds, and Limitations 41 Section B: THE RMI COUNTRY CONTEXT 46

2.1 Political Environment 46

2.2 Economic Context 50

2.3 Social and Cultural Context 53

2.3 Technological and Infrastructure Contexts 60

2.4 Environment and Infrastructure 67

2.5 Natural Resource Context 69

2.5.1 Fisheries 69

2.5.2 Agriculture 72

2.6 Legal and Policy Context 74

2.7 Institutional Governance Of Climate Change 76 Section C: THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR RMI’S CLIMATE ACTION  82

3.0 Climate Baseline 82

3.1 Extreme Weather 83

3.2 Future Climate Forecasts 89 Section D: CLIMATE IMPACTS, RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES 94

4.0 Introduction 94

4.1 Vulnerabilities of Spatially Dispersed Communities 95

4.1.1 The Lived Experience of Climate Impacts and Risks in Communities 96

4.2 Projections of Physical and Environmental Impacts on Communities 101

4.2.1 Urban Communities 103

4.2.2. Semi-Urban Communities 106

4.2.3 Rural and Outer Atoll Communities 107

4.3 Vulnerabilities of Key Economic and Social Sectors 108

4.3.1 Vulnerabilities of the Works, Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation Services and Communications Sectors 109

4.3.2 Vulnerabilities of the Healthcare and Social Services Sectors 117

4.3.3 Vulnerabilities of the Education, Skills, and Training Sectors 119

4.3.4 Vulnerabilities of the Fisheries Sector 121

4.3.5 Vulnerabilities of the Culture and Internal Affairs Sector 123

4.4 Vulnerabilities of the Natural Resources and Commerce Sectors 131

4.5 Summary of RMI Community and Sector-Level Vulnerabilities 133 Section E: THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PATHWAY FOR SURVIVAL 138

5.0 Purpose of the Adaptation Pathway 138

5.1 Considerations for Decision-making for the Pathway 139

5.2 Pathway Steps 2023 to 2150 142

5.3 Estimating the Costs of Adaption Options 148 Section F: NAP IMPLEMENTATION I: NATIONAL STRATEGY AND ACTION PLANS 154

6.0 The National Strategic Plan And Climate Adaptation 154

6.1 The NAP Implementation Strategy 155

6.2 Action Plans for Key Economic and Social Sectors 156 6.2.1 Action Plan for the Works, Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation Services and Communications Sectors 157 6.2.2 Action Plan for the Healthcare and Social Services Sectors 159 6.2.3 Action Plan for the Education, Skills, and Training Sectors 161

6.2.4 Action Plan for the Fisheries Sector 162

6.2.5 Action Plan for the Internal Affairs Sector 164 6.2.6 Action Plan for the Natural Resources and Commerce Sectors 166

6.3 Action Plan for Spatially Distributed Communities 168

6.4 A Cross-Cutting Gender Equity-Focused Action Plan 170

6.5 From Action Plans To Implementation 172 Section G: NAP IMPLEMENTATION II: THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT 176

7.0 Introduction 176

7.1 All-Of-Government Approach to Implementing Climate Adaptation Actions 176

7.1.1 Enhancing the Legal and Policy Foundations 177

7.1.1.1 Land Tenure and Land Rights 178

7.1.1.2 Sea-Level Rise Policy 178

7.1.1.3 Disaster Risk and Resilience Policy 179

7.1.1.4 Provision of Government Services 179

7.1.1.5 Physical Planning and Coastal Conservation 180

7.1.1.6 Environmental Protection and Climate Adaptation 180

7.2 Fit-For-Purpose Climate Governance and Administration 183

7.3 Mobilizing the Right Resources 183

7.3.1 Climate Finance 184

7.3.2 Climate Finance Administration and Capacity Building:  187

7.4 Human Capacity Building and Outsourcing 188

7.5 All-Of-Society Approach to Implementing Climate Adaptation Actions 189

7.5.1 Public Awareness, Education, and Behavioral Change 190 Section H: NAP IMPLEMENTATION III: MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK 194

8.0 Introduction 194

8.1 Monitoring and Evaluation Across the RMI Pathway for Survival 194 Table Of Figures Figure 1: Our NAP Vision overlain on the flag of the RMI, adopted in 1979 at the onset of self-rule on the island. 30 Figure 2:Overall status of Reimaanlok Community-based Resource Management Planning  32 Figure 3: Map of the RMI 35 Figure 4: Summary of the formal UNFCCC NAP development process. 37 Figure 5: Volume of fish catches on the Island 71 Figure 6: Tile Til Eo Structure 78 Figure 7: Average monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and rainfall in the Marshall Islands, 1991-2020. 83 Figure 8: Causes of coastal flooding in the RMI (Deltares 2022c). 84 Figure 9: Projected change in annual maximum 5-day rainfall (25-year return level) 85 Figure 10: Wave and sedimentary processes on an atoll island  86 Figure 11: Varying degrees of wave exposure within Majuro Atoll (left panel; red indicates large waves while blue indicates small waves) and for the RMI (right panel; darker red indicates larger waves and yellow indicates smaller waves). Source wave hind-cast data: (SPC, 2020). 87 Figure 12: Sea level observations and projections for Majuro (Bamber et al., 2019). 87 Figure 13: Project change in Annual Mean Drought Index for RMI.  89 Figure 14: How disaster risk increases as risk components – hazard, exposure, and vulnerability – increase. Source: Adapted from World Bank (2013). 95 Figure 15: Most frequent community observations of climate change 96 Figure 16: Most frequently mentioned Climate impacts  97 Figure 17. Most frequently mentioned impacts of climate change by gender  98 Figure 18: Percentage of flooded area per atoll by settlement types* 103 Figure 19: Flooding during high tide (MHHW) (left panel) and during the 1-in-10-yr swell wave event (right panel) for the urban centers Djarrit, Uliga, Delap, and Rairok, and the intermediate center Laura. 104 Figure 20: Illustration of flooding scenarios for the Delap, Djarrit, and Laura communities in Majuro, showing regions affected by groundwater flooding, high tide flooding and flooding during a storm event for different sea level rise scenarios. 105 Figure 21: The Long-Term National Adaptation Pathway of the Republic of the Marshall Islands 143 Figure 22: Strategic relationships between NSP, NAP, and other national processes 155 Figure 23: Hierarchy of Objectives of the NAP Implementation Strategy 156 Figure 24: Elements of the ‘enabling environment” to strengthen the National Adaptation Plan 176 Figure 26: Symbol classifications guide to M&E tables. 195 Table Of Tables Table 1: Self-determined principles for the NAP 31 Table 2: 2021 Census compared to previous census results. The population decrease between the 2011 and 2021 census is also indicated: Yellow: 0-25%; Orange: 25-50%, Red: 50-75%; Purple: >75%. 53 Table 3: Healthcare Services Data in the RMI 55 Table 4: Access to Infrastructure Elements by Community (82 communities in total) 61 Table 5: Targets for the RMI electricity sector, derived from RMI’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement 67 Table 6: Fishing revenue for 2019-2021. 70 Table 7: Type of atolls, % of the population*, and % of land.  102 Table 8: Overview of the flooded areas, people affected, and EAD for Ebeye, for the 1-in-10-yr swell event.  106 Table 9: Specific Transportation Sector Vulnerabilities 110 Table 10: Specific Telecommunications and Energy Sector Vulnerabilities 112 Table 11: Specific Water and Sanitation Sector Vulnerabilities 114 Table 12: Specific Coastal Protection Sector Vulnerabilities 116 Table 13: Estimated change in the Maximum Catch Potential (MCP) for RMI under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) for 2030 and a low (SSP2-4.6) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) for 2050. 123 Table 14: MoCIA Roles In Addressing Climate Vulnerabilities 130 Table 15: Summary of Community-Level Perceptions of their Vulnerability across the RMI 133 Table 16: Summary of Sector Vulnerabilities across the RMI 133 Table 17: Additional Criteria for Pathway Decision-making (Deltares, 2023) 141 Table 18. Illustrative Ranking of 10 atolls on Raising Land or Creating new land areas*  146 Table 19: Overview of adaptation options for protecting urban centers up to 0.5 m SLR for investment scenarios of approximately USD 250, 500, and 1000 million.  148 Table 20: Overview of adaptation options for raising or reclaiming land for new urban centers for investment scenarios of $ 500, 1000, 2500, and 5000 million.  149 Table 21: Overview of adaptation options for raising land to consolidate intermediate centers, for investment scenarios of $ 250, 500, 1000, and 2000 million.  150 Table 22: Total costs (2021 $) for raising different islets of intermediate centers, for both the Raising & Rebuilding and Raising and Revetment options*. 151 Table 23: Cross-Sector Adaptation Barriers 157 Table 24: Action Plan for Works, Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation, and Communications Sectors. 157 Table 25: Summary of Potential Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan for Works, Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation, and Communications Sectors 159 Table 26: Action Plan for Healthcare and Social Services Sectors  159 Table 26: Summary of Adaptive Capacity and Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Health Sector Action Plan 160 Table 27: Action Plan for Education, Skills, and Training Sectors 161 Table 28: Summary of Potential Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan 162 Table 29: Action Plan for the Fisheries Sector 162 Table 30: Summary of Adaptive Capacity and Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan 163 Table 31: Action Plan for Internal Affairs Sectors 164 Table 32: Summary of Potential Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan for the Internal Affairs Sector 165 Table 33: Action Plan for Natural Resources and Commerce sectors 166 Table 34: Summary of Adaptive Capacity and Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan for Natural Resources and Commerce Sectors 167 Table 35: Community Action Plan for Atolls and Islands 169 Table 36: Interlinkages and Dependencies among Stakeholders. 170 Table 37: An Action Plan for Strengthening the All-Of-Government Approach  181 Table 38:An Action Plan for Empowering the All-Of-Society Approach  191 Table 40: Goal 2: Build And Sustain Adaptive Resilience 196 Table 41: Goal 2: Build And Sustain Adaptive Resilience 204 Table 42: Goal 3: Self Determination Of Our Future 210 Table 43: Goal 2: Strengthen the Enabling Environment 212 Table 44: Goal 2: Strengthen the Enabling Environment 214 Executive Summary Introduction The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a large ocean, small island developing state located near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. RMI is a collection of 29 geographically dispersed coral atolls and 5 islands spread across over 2,000,000 km2 of ocean. There are 24 inhabited atolls and islands, most of which are remote and lie merely two meters above sea level, on average. The country faces extreme risks as a result of climate change. This National Adaptation Plan (NAP) aims to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change impact; integrate adaptation strategies into national planning, policies, and programs; and outline a practicable adaptation pathway, from short to long-term, guiding towards the RMI’s survival and viability. The challenges encountered are multifaceted and intertwined, and need a coordinated approach that encompasses analysis, planning, institutional and capacity development, and dedicated engagement with our communities. The RMI also contends with socio-economic and environmental adversities, some of which are rooted in past colonial injustices. Our geographic isolation, limited natural resources, and heightened risks from natural hazards, are all magnified by climate change. Our NAP development process has centered both scientific insights and traditional knowledge in an inclusive, gender-sensitive, and transparent manner, engaging a broad spectrum of stakeholders, including international partners, to 18 ensure a holistic approach. Our culture of self- seen in the Marshallese language. For example, determination and resilience in the face of “aeloñ kein” which simply translates to “our adversity is reflected in our plan for our survival. islands”, can be broken down further into “ae” meaning ocean, “loñ” meaning skies, and “kein” We are committed to climate adaptation meaning land, or even more specifically, the decision-making that respects our sovereignty trees, plants, and earth that make up that land. and protects our human rights. The Marshallese person belongs not only to the land, but also the surrounding skies and seas. Our colonial legacies influence climate vulnerability. For example, the legacy of the The RMI is particularly vulnerable to natural nuclear weapons testing program forced many hazards like typhoons and sea-level rise. We of our people to migrate to different islands that face various climate challenges, including are unsuitable and more climate vulnerable. We rising temperatures, droughts, and sea-level do not want to perpetuate the subordination that rise in our tropical country, which has two has affected our country in the past, and instead distinct seasons: a wet season from May to will respect self-determination and human November and a dry season from December rights by centering climate adaptation decision- to April. Our climate is influenced by trade making in the hands of our communities and winds, the South Pacific Convergence Zone, elected leaders. RMI leaders intend to face the and periodic El Niño events, and it has been looming threat of mid-century uninhabitability in following global warming trends. Average a way that honors our people and culture, and temperatures have been gradually increasing, their decision-making, pursuing a collaborative especially since the 1980s, accompanied engagement with international partners without by reduced rainfall exacerbated by El Niño, subordinating our decision-making and the sometimes leading to an 80% reduction in needs and rights of our people. rainfall. Floods and storm surges are common, particularly during El Niño years. Typhoons This NAP is aligned with other global commitments are less common but devastating when they like the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and occur. The rising sea levels, exceeding the the guidance of the United Nations Framework global average, pose a significant threat due Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to the low-lying nature of our islands, affecting and is a comprehensive approach not only coastal areas, freshwater sources, and land to confront climate change but also to tackle use. Saltwater intrusion in our fresh water lenses the interconnected developmental challenges is a growing issue, emphasizing the urgent faced by the RMI. need for comprehensive climate adaptation measures, as local aquifers are highly sensitive Country Context to atmospheric and oceanic changes. Indigenous culture is deeply ingrained in the In the RMI’s mixed parliamentary-presidential RMI’s landscape and oceans which are now system the President, chosen by the Nitijela threatened by climate change. Marshallese legislature, serves as the government’s head. culture has a complex and rich relationship to Traditional leaders are represented in the land that is beyond what can be stated in this Council of Iroij, which can review legislation document. The depth of this relationship can be affecting cultural norms. 19 The economy relies heavily on external resources are pivotal for the RMI’s economy and cultural and imports, and is concentrated in the service identity. Our large Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) sector, agriculture, and fisheries. Government offers rich marine biodiversity, especially lucrative efforts to diversify include boosting sustainable tuna species. Agriculture, although contributing tourism and investing in renewable energy, less to GDP, is crucial for outer island livelihoods, with the aim of 100% renewable energy by 2050, with the government working to manage these though there are logistical challenges due to sectors sustainably through organizations like the country’s isolation and geographic spread. the Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority Most employment is public sector-based, with (MIMRA) and the Ministry of Natural Resources many seeking opportunities abroad. Fisheries and Commerce (MNRC). Image Supplied by Chewy Lin Infrastructure in the RMI is diverse and managed issues like a digital divide persist. The Ministry by various ministries and state-owned of Environment and its EPA division are actively enterprises. The Ministry of Works, Infrastructure, engaged in environmental protection, focusing and Utilities coordinates key projects such as on water quality and waste management. roads and coastal protections, outlined in a Challenges include water security and waste National Infrastructure Investment Plan with management due to geographic and climate- a budget requirement of $732 million from related constraints. 2017-2026. The maritime sector is essential for inter-island transport and supporting According to the 2021 Census, RMI has seen a livelihood activity in the neighboring atolls. 20% population drop, mainly due to migration While telecommunications have improved, to the U.S. The education and healthcare 20 sectors have improved but face resource and chaired by the Minister of Environment and the staffing constraints, with healthcare being less Chief Secretary, TTEC directs and coordinates accessible in remote areas. Non-communicable activities across multiple sectors, from emissions diseases remain prevalent. Despite a Human mitigation and adaptation planning to global Development Index (HDI) of 0.704, educational reporting requirements. Its establishment in 2019 challenges persist, particularly in infrastructure has strengthened coordination. and learning outcomes in outer islands. Community Impacts, Risks and Geopolitically, the Compact of Free Association Vulnerabilities (COFA) outlines a unique relationship between the RMI and the U.S. Additionally, the RMI works Climate change, manifested as rising sea levels, closely with a wide array of international fluctuating temperatures, and inconsistent partners, both bilaterally and through regional rainfall, has far-reaching consequences for our organizations like the Pacific Islands Forum. The livelihoods and access to critical resources. RMI plays an influential role in multilateral fora, These changes affect critical areas such as with a strong presence in the UNFCCC, Human fishing and agriculture, where men report Rights Council, and IMO, for example. declining yields. Women involved in handicrafts, Policy and Institutional also face challenges in sourcing materials, Arrangements affecting their income. These shifts exacerbate pre-existing issues of food and water scarcity, Many of our legislative acts and national plans putting more stress on already overburdened already touch directly or indirectly on climate infrastructure, from roads to healthcare facilities. change, such as the RMI Maritime Zones Declaration Act 2016, Protected Areas Network Urban centers like Majuro and Ebeye are Act 2015, and the National Strategic Plan 2020- particularly vulnerable. They face not only 2030. The enforcement and implementation climate-induced risks like coastal flooding of these policies requires further support, but also challenges tied to rapid urbanization including funding. With the adoption of our Tile such as overburdened public services. Due to Til Eo 2050 Climate Strategy “Lighting the Way” land elevations averaging below 6.5 feet (2m), in 2018 as well as our RMI NDC Partnership Plan, even moderate sea level rises of 20” (0.5m) efforts to bolster RMI’s resilience against climate are projected to result in regular overwash impacts are already underway, with funding events, which will challenge habitability. Internal secured from the Green Climate Fund and other migration from rural areas to cities further partners. The government, however, recognizes compounds these vulnerabilities. the need to build upon these efforts, particularly Semi-urban communities, although benefiting in light of the scale of projected future impacts from better service accessibility, face their own related to climate change and implementation set of climate-related challenges, including challenges. groundwater flooding. Rural communities are most threatened by food and water scarcity, Our Tile Til Eo Committee (TTEC) serves as the due to salinization of soils, saltwater intrusion into national body overseeing climate change the freshwater lenses and shifts in agricultural response and disaster risk reduction. Co- and fishing conditions. 21 Across these diverse settings, the absence further support. The nation’s geographic spread of detailed, accurate data hampers the complicates these issues further, highlighting effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, the acute need for better-trained healthcare highlighting the immediate need for a more professionals who can reach all our communities. integrated, data-based approach for long-term resilience. The education and training sectors are likewise vulnerable. Existing challenges such as declining Sectoral Impacts, Risks and enrollment and logistical issues are exacerbated Vulnerabilities by climate change impacts like coastal erosion and increased disease spread. Extreme weather Climate change amplifies existing vulnerabilities events pose a significant threat to school across sectors. The challenges are deeply attendance and educational quality. There is intersectional, requiring comprehensive, an urgent need for climate-specific policies and integrated, and inclusive approaches for curriculum development to prepare the coming mitigation and adaptation. From healthcare generations for the challenges ahead – both and education to fisheries and vulnerable for understanding the issues and developing populations, the need for immediate, climate- appropriate skills for the future. resilient planning and governance is urgent. While fishing is a significant revenue source, The RMI low-lying atolls and unique land with Majuro a key tuna transhipment port, it tenure system make infrastructure sectors like faces challenges like overfishing and climate utilities, energy, and transportation, particularly change impacts on both commercial and susceptible to climate impacts like sea-level local fisheries. Changes in ocean conditions rise and severe weather. Funding constraints, could drastically affect fish distribution and especially in remote atolls, amplify these abundance, threatening traditional fishing vulnerabilities. Rising global temperatures and practices. Potential migration of tuna away from ocean acidification accelerate the deterioration the RMI’s Exclusive Economic Zone and the risk of these critical systems, making the case for of illegal fishing add complexity and risk to this immediate, climate-resilient planning. promising and developing sector. The healthcare system is also severely stressed Vulnerable populations, including women, by resource shortages and these will be youth, the elderly, and persons with disabilities, exacerbated by climate change impacts. face heightened risks. Societal roles, existing Already grappling with challenges like poverty, inequalities, and limited resources make these urbanization, and disease prevalence, the groups particularly susceptible to the cascading healthcare infrastructure faces additional effects of climate change. Gender-based burdens from the rise in waterborne and vector- violence and mental health issues are likely to borne diseases due to climate-related events. worsen, while land tenure issues could lead to Malnutrition, attributable to disrupted food and future disputes, especially as rising sea levels water supplies, adds to healthcare delivery threaten to displace communities. challenges. Although much work is currently progressed through the climate and health Our natural resources and commerce sectors policy and workplan, there will be a need for face enormous challenges. Scarce freshwater 22 resources are further strained by climate affecting agriculture, health, and traditional impacts like droughts and rising temperatures, livelihoods. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific The National Adaptation Pathway for Survival each with decision points based on sea-level serves as a dynamic blueprint, outlining how rise projections. the nation will respond from now until 2150. It embraces 5 key principles: effectiveness, In the near term (2024 - 2040), our plan efficiency, equity, considers preparing the institutional frameworks to address climate change and prioritizes Our Adaptation Pathway for immediate, low-risk adaptation actions informed Survival: Short, Medium and by current science. These include low technology Long Term community initiatives and nature-based solutions and infrastructural improvements, all The National Adaptation Pathway for Survival nested within a legal framework that promotes serves as a dynamic blueprint, outlining how quick implementation. The strategy ensures early the nation will respond from now until 2150. It measures that safeguard the most vulnerable embraces five key principles: effectiveness, communities and the Marshallese way of life. efficiency, equity, enablement, and sustainability, and is built to be flexible, accommodating The mid-century period (2040 - 2070) is a evolving climate data and societal needs. The pivotal phase for the RMI. Decision Point 2 in this Pathway divides the timeline into key periods, window will compel the nation to re-evaluate its 23 existing protective measures, based on new sea- level rise data and updated adaptation plans. Decisions will then need to be made about next steps, including which atolls can be sustainably protected in the longer term, and the necessity of planned relocations and the building of infrastructure in designated community hubs. Between 2070 - 2100, sea levels are expected to rise to 20” (0.5 meters), triggering habitation responses and a comprehensive review of existing strategies. Beyond 2070, two scenarios come into play. If sea-level rise is manageable, the government may continue to invest in protective structures for the existing communities. If not, then the focus will need to turn to discussions on planned relocation measures or seeking alternative land beyond the RMI. Another critical year is 2150, by which time a 6.5ft (2-meter) rise is currently projected. Whether it is practicable to provide for this or whether to look to other strategies including migration or seeking alternative land will have to be decided through the mid 2000s, prompting evaluations of ongoing protective measures, influencing choices between fortifying current communities or initiating relocations. Atoll-specific strategies are also embedded in the plan. In urban centers like Majuro and Ebeye, the focus is on fortifying coastal barriers, and later planned relocation. Semi-urban atolls will see investments in both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ protective infrastructure, while rural atolls will initially utilize nature-based and low-cost solutions. Decisions to pursue various measures at key points will depend on climate data updates, financial analyses, and community consultations. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 24 Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific The Cost of Adaptation complements other policy documents and sectoral plans. The implementation of the NAP will The cost of adaptation strategies to protect require further synchronization, including with the against sea-level rise in particular is substantial, establishment of a coordination implementing with estimates ranging from USD 250 million for mechanism to guide investments and actions protection of individual specific areas to over in line with broader NSP goals. USD 1 billion for comprehensive protection of both urban centers against a 20” (0.5m) sea- Implementation Strategy level rise. Raising and protecting an area against 6.5ft (2m) SLR (needed by 2150 on current The NAP Implementation Strategy has three projections) sufficient for the RMI’s current overarching goals: (1) building adaptive resilience population could exceed USD 5 billion. Semi- across human and ecological systems; (2) urban and intermediate centers have varying strengthening the enabling environment for NAP costs based on the extent of the adaptation activities, and (3) adopting a self-determined needed and the investment available, ranging approach that honors the country’s heritage from USD 250 million to USD 2 billion for protection and benefits future generations. to 20” (0.5m) and 6.5ft (2m) SLR respectively. The These goals are set to achieve five high- RMI Government will evaluate the practicality level outcomes that focus on sectoral and and cost implications of these options, including community resilience, all-of-government and with existing and potential funders. all-of-society commitments, and inclusivity in decision-making. Action plans have been The NAP and Our National devised for each outcome, covering key Strategic Plan economic and social sectors, and emphasizing an integrated approach The National Strategic Plan (NSP) is the country’s that involves government and comprehensive planning framework. The NAP will societal stakeholders. These action plans be integrated within the NSP as the primary plan are to be further developed into specific for climate change adaptation and resilience. implementation plans by the respective lead The NAP not only addresses the climate ministries and agencies. Such implementation change objectives outlined in the NSP but also 25 plans will include setting schedules, securing arrangements to oversee and manage the NAP resources, and engaging stakeholders. implementation. For Community Action Plans, this involves developing atoll-specific Local Area Plans for Getting Everyone Engaged Adaptation (LAPAs) to meet national objectives. In adopting an “All-Of-Society Approach” for Building an Enabling implementation, we emphasize decentralized Environment to Support NAP governance and are involving local communities, public-private partnerships, educational Implementation institutions, and marginalized groups such To successfully implement the NAP the as women and youth. By hosting community government aims to create a comprehensive forums and employing media outlets, the plan “All-Of-Government” and “All-Of-Society” aims to foster participatory decision-making approach, focusing on three core elements: (1) and raise awareness on climate risks. Special Policy and legislative foundations; (2) Effective emphasis is placed on incorporating women’s governance and administration structures and; voices in decision-making and with targeted (3) Resource mobilization guided by sustainable training aimed at enhancing women’s skills and development plans. participation in leadership. Gender and human rights considerations are integrated across Notably, strengthening coordination and policies. developing adaptation capacity in existing institutional arrangements to support Moreover, the RMI government plans to engage implementation of the NAP is critical. Alongside communities across the society through of this there is a need for a comprehensive extensive public awareness and educational awareness program for the Marshallese campaigns. These include specialized climate population to understand the projected impacts change modules in school curriculums, training of climate change, how they can prepare for sessions for teachers and community leaders, them and how they can be involved in the and widespread media campaigns. critical decision-making which will be required to achieve equitable and sustainable outcomes Mobilizing the Right Resources for all Marshallese. The RMI needs significant long-term funding The complexity, cost and interconnectedness for adaptation. We will primarily focus on two of the climate change issues and the extreme sources: international and regional support outcomes to be addressed, make it imperative and domestic public finance. International that there be both institutional clarity and sources like the Green Climate Fund and the political focus on initiating arrangements World Bank are considered vital. Additionally, for implementing the NAP. The Government the ongoing negotiations with the U.S. on the has recently adopted the Sea Level Rise (SLR) Compact of Free Association may provide Adaptation Policy as a precursor to preparing for resources to adaptation efforts. While domestic NAP implementation in three key areas: technical revenues also play a significant role, the size of development for SLR and monitoring climate the economy is small compared to the scale of impacts; addressing underlying institutional and the adaptation challenge. The RMI also looks to cultural issues; and, establishing institutional innovate with regional collaborations, such as 26 partnerships with neighboring Pacific countries and society action plans. The framework sets and global organizations. A multi-layered performance indicators that guide responsible approach outlined in the NAP signifies RMI’s ministries in measuring progress and introduces comprehensive strategy to mobilize resources, an additional level of accountability through from international funding and domestic designated M&E leads. A baseline provides revenues to innovative finance mechanisms, initial data against which progress can be aimed at building a resilient future in the face compared, a timeframe for implementation, of climate change. and a suggested frequency for continuous evaluation are also outlined. The M&E framework Accountability and Reporting on is focused on a ten-year span starting from 2023 Progress and recommends a midterm evaluation at the five-year mark and anticipates an update of The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework this NAP based on experiences and emerging outlines a comprehensive approach to assess data from the 2024-2034 period. the effectiveness of various action plans, including sector, community, government Image Credits: Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 27 Section A: INTRODUCTION 29 Section A: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Our NAP Vision “Papjalmae” means preparing for unforeseen circumstances. In this case the climate crisis is the greatest unforeseen circumstance our country has experienced beyond the nuclear legacy. “Papjalmae” “Planning and preparing for unforeseen and unexpected future events” Figure 1: Our NAP Vision overlain on the flag of the RMI, adopted in 1979 at the onset of self-rule on the island.

1.2 Guiding Principles National Self-Determination Self-determination and the right of RMI citizens to determine their responses to climate change supported by observations, local, indigenous knowledge, and science-based actions guides the NAP. A set of values-based principles founded on ‘self-determination’ and understanding the local situation was developed (Table 1). These guiding principles are incorporated into each part of the NAP process and will be used to inform the recommendations that stem from the NAP. 30 Table 1: Self-determined principles for the NAP Principles Principle Title Definition Right to remain The right of RMI citizens to remain in their homelands – and this right should be protected (to the extent practicable) – noting it will require transformative measures. Right to self-determination The right of RMI citizens to determine their responses to climate change supported by observation, knowledge, and science. A resilience imperative Resilience (physical and well-being) must be a fundamental focus across all sectors and areas of atoll development based on understanding of situations, identifying adaptation measures fit for purpose, and addressing the local context. The need to address This, in turn, requires transformative thinking to be achieved and transformative measures implemented. Integrated adaptation Accepting the complex and multi-dimensional scope of climate change and, coordinating across the sectors and developing the adaptive capacity to adjust to the changing situation. Progressive adaptation Monitoring climate impacts and building on progressive adaptation pathways and sustainable solutions over time. Gender, social inclusion, and Maintaining a strong focus on gender equality, social inclusion, and fairness. fairness Technology and tradition Embracing innovation and technology as well as traditional knowledge. Lessons from the nuclear legacy Learn from the level of trauma and environmental degradation that our islands and people experienced from the testing, which subsequently contributed to further vulnerability to climate change. The Reimaanlok Approach: This is a vital aspect proceed. Despite the complexities, the RMI of development planning in the RMI, as all land Government is committed to transparent and in the country is under traditional ownership, culturally respectful consultation processes. which necessitates consultation with traditional The Reimaanlok Framework, RMI’s national landowners in order for any development to approach to community-based conservation, 31 was adopted in 2008 and aimed to conserve sites.1 The Reimaanlok Approach not only guides at least 30% of marine and 20% of terrestrial consultations for the National Adaptation Plan resources in Micronesia by 2020. Since meeting (NAP) but is expected to also play a crucial its initial Micronesia Challenge goal, RMI has role in informing its implementation. The 8-step since set itself the target of conserving 50% of its Reimaanlok Approach helps atoll communities coastal resources by 2030. This initiative focuses in the Marshall Islands think globally and act on sustaining biodiversity and livelihoods, locally. It employs community-based tools and enhancing community and ecosystem approaches to articulate local objectives that resilience, and is currently being implemented translate to national, regional and international in five islands/atolls, with the goal of expanding goals. its successful principles and processes to other 1 Initiation 2 Project Scoping and Setup 3 Building Commitment 4 Collecting and Managing information Maintaining Commitment 8 Monitoring, Evaluation, and Adaptive Management 7 Sign Off 6 Developing the Management Plan 5 Overall Status of Reimanlok Community-based Resource Management Planning by Site - October 2020 Pending Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Kwajalein Majuro - Buruon Majuro - Ajeltake Ailinglaplap Majuro -Bikirin Ailuk Rongerik Likiep (R2R) Jabat Majuro-Drenmeo Namdrik Rongelap Aur (R2R) Maloelap Majuro-Bokan Botin Jaluit** Ailinginae Mejit (R2R) Wotje Majuro-Ene Kalamur Bikini Lib (Ramsar Site)* Namu Majuro-Woja Enewetak Arno Ultrik Ujelang Mili Ujae Erikub Bikar Lae Jemo Bokak Ebon (R2R) Taka Wotho (R2R) Nadrikdrik Ailinglaplap-Bouj Kili *Lib marine survey to be conducted **Jaluit Atoll Conservation Area Plan from 1999 needs to be revisited Figure 2:Overall status of Reimaanlok Community-based Resource Management Planning2 Economic development and resilience are objective of merging conservation practices essential components of adaptation because from the biophysical sciences with traditional a more prosperous society will have more community-based atoll practices and resources, individually and collectively, to processes to achieve mutually agreed adapt to climate change. A vital strength of outcomes. Consequently, the Reimaanlok the Reimaanlok Framework is its underpinning Framework contains the necessary processes 1 Socio-Economic Monitoring (SEM) Surveys, completed as part of the Reimaanlok Process, have been completed for a number of atolls, including Aur, Likiep, Ebon, Maloelap, Ujae, and Utrok amongst others. The SEM Surveys are important for understanding the degree of dependence of the local community on the natural resources for both subsistence and income-generation. In addition to these Socio-economic Monitoring Surveys, completed Atoll Resource Management Plans exist for Lae, Ebon, Mejit, Wotho, Maloelap, Jabat, and Namu. These plans include recommendations to build socioeconomic resilience and ecological resilience. Embracing the views of community members, a series of recommendations are presented through the incorporation of the Local Early Action Plan (LEAP) processes to include “Community Climate Stories” and “Community Maps,” in addition to introducing (over time) Climate Vulnerability Risk Assessments into the current Reimaanlok Process. 2 Note that atolls have progressed further along the plan since October 2020 and to be formally reported. 32 and practices to support the NAP process military control of the country from Japan and to determine coastal adaptation to climate assumed administrative control under United change within atoll communities, particularly in Nations auspices as part of the Trust Territory 3 the neighboring-islands . of the Pacific Islands following the end of World War II. The country bears the enduring

1.3 Country Overview legacy of U.S. nuclear weapons testing. This testing, including the infamous Bikini Atoll tests, As part of the of the Micronesian region, the had devastating environmental and health Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) consists consequences for the Marshallese people, of two groups of atolls and islands in the Central leading to lasting impacts on their land and North Pacific Ocean, about 3,200 kilometers well-being. RMI’s pursuit of nuclear justice, (km) away from Honolulu and Tokyo4. 22 of including compensation and environmental the 29 atolls and 4 of the 5 small, raised coral remediation, remains an ongoing issue in islands are inhabited; the atoll islands are international diplomacy. In 1983, the RMI rarely more than 200 m in width, and almost signed a Compact of Free Association with all of the land is below 6.5ft (2 meters). The the US and gained independence in 1986 Marshall Islands has a moist, tropical climate, with the Compact’s entry coming into force. heavily influenced by the north-east trade Under this Compact, the US provided defense, wind belt. Annual rainfall varies considerably subsidies, and access to social services, and from north to south within the archipelago, in 2003, this agreement was amended to with atolls in the south receiving 300–340 cm provide around US$70 million each year over of rainfall annually, perhaps as much as three the period 2004–2024 5. Since independence, times more than northern atolls. The average external assistance and grants have formed annual temperature and monthly means are 60% of government revenue. generally consistent at around 27°C, with a maximum daily variation of about 7°C1. Most of In addition to the reliance on external the RMI’s approximately 42,000 persons (2021) assistance, the RMI faces a variety of social live in the capital city, Majuro. About 92% of vulnerabilities, much like many other Small the population identifies as Marshallese, and Island Developing States (SIDS). Issues more than 98% of its people speak the official of geographical remoteness, a small, local language. sparsely distributed population, distance to international import and export markets, and The RMI has a unique and close relationship associated high costs of transportation, small with the United States (US). In 1944, the US gained domestic market, challenges of achieving 3 Socio-Economic Monitoring (SEM) Surveys, completed as part of the Reimaanlok Process, have been completed for a number of atolls, including Aur, Likiep, Ebon, Maloelap, Ujae, and Utrok amongst others. The SEM Surveys are important for understanding the degree of dependence of the local community on the natural resources for both subsistence and income-generation. In addition to these Socio-economic Monitoring Surveys, completed Atoll Resource Management Plans exist for Lae, Ebon, Mejit, Wotho, Maloelap, Jabat, and Namu. These plans include recommendations to build socioeconomic resilience and ecological resilience. Embracing the views of community members, a series of recommendations are presented through the incorporation of the Local Early Action Plan (LEAP) processes to include “Community Climate Stories” and “Community Maps,” in addition to introducing (over time) Climate Vulnerability Risk Assessments into the current Reimaanlok Process. 4 Subbarao, S. & Mucadam, R. (2015). Second National Communication of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. United Nations Development Program/Global Environment Facility. Suva, Fiji. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/mhlnc2.pdf[ [accessed 10/07/2019] 5 US Department of State (2018). U.S. Relations with Marshall Islands. URL: https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-marshall- islands/[accessed 15/07/2019] 33 economies of scale of production, and very economic damages estimated at just under high energy costs, as well as few natural US$5 million8. “While this event remains the resources, all hinder economic development most severe disaster for the country, the potential. The RMI heavily relies on imports risk from disaster in the RMI is high due to – agricultural production is primarily the combination of economic and physical subsistence-based, and small-scale industry vulnerability. With previous nuclear testing on is limited to handicrafts, tuna processing, and some of the atolls having long made them 1 copra . Although tourism is not a major source uninhabitable9, the nation’s susceptibility of foreign exchange, the industry accounts to natural hazards is further exacerbated for about 10% of the local labor market. by climate change and variability. The risks While many official basic indicator data are faced by the Marshall Islands have been set unavailable for the RMI (Table 1), using 2011 out in several communications to the United census data, it was estimated that 37% of the Nations, including the Republic’s Second total population live below the “basic-needs National Communication to the UNFCCC 6 income line” . While 30% of residents in the (2015). The RMI is also noted for being the two main urban centers (Majuro and Ebeye) first country to submit an ambitious second are estimated below this line, these numbers Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) could be double in the outer islands. Such under the Paris Agreement 10. deepening poverty, amidst “growing concerns over high unemployment, financial hardship, hunger, and poor nutrition”, is noted in the context of a vulnerability to “transnational threats, natural disasters, and the potential effects of climate change.” The Marshall Islands face a risk of high impact cyclones, and the low-lying islands are susceptible to coastal floods and tsunamis 7. Extreme heat and drought conditions also represent a high risk and have recently affected the islands. In late 2015/early 2016, below-average rainfall, exacerbated by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), induced local drought conditions and water shortages. EM-DAT data estimates that the drought affected more than half the population, with 6 Johnson, J. (2016). ADB report: Poverty rate high in Marshall Islands. Marianas Variety online April 19 2016. URL: http://www. mvariety.com/regional-news/88542-adb-report-poverty-rate-high-in-marshall-islands [accessed 15/07/2019] 7 GFDRR (2016). ThinkHazard! Profile for the Marshall Islands. URL: http://thinkhazard.org/ [accessed 15/07/2019] 8 EMDAT (2019). Emergency Events Database. URL: https://www.emdat.be/ [accessed 15/07/2019] 9 Dvorsky, G. (2019). Radiation Levels at the Marshall Islands Remain Disturbingly High. 15/07/2019. URL: https://gizmodo.com/ radiation-levels-at-the-marshall-islands-remain-disturb-1836382678 [accessed 15/07/2019] 10 Mead, L. (2018). Marshall Islands Becomes First Country to Submit Second, More Ambitious NDC. 28/11/2018. URL: https://sdg.iisd. org/news/marshall-islands-becomes-first-country-to-submit-second-more-ambitious-ndc/ 34 Figure 3: Map of the RMI

1.4 Why We Need a Climate model projections are lacking for all atolls, Adaptation Survival Plan presenting challenges for decision-makers. ► The Republic of the Marshall Islands’ (RMI) ► Potential threats to human well-being and has experienced warming of around 0.60C natural ecosystems include increased since 1980. prevalence of heat waves, intensified cyclones, saline intrusion, wave-driven ► Future trends in warming are obscured by flooding, and permanent inundation. the inability of climate models to simulate trends at sufficiently small spatial scales ► Biodiversity and the natural environment accurately. Warming is likely to take place at of RMI face extreme pressure, and the loss a rate slightly lower than the global average. of some species of fish, coral, bird, and terrestrial species is likely without effective ► Current emissions pathways are tracking conservation measures. between RCP 4.5 (2.7 degrees of warming) ► RMI faces a potential long-term threat and RCP 2.6 (1.8 degrees of warming). from permanent inundation and wave- ► The IPCC’s AR6 report demonstrates that driven flooding, and some studies have climate impacts will increase with every suggested that many of its low-lying islands tenth of a degree of warming. Limiting will become uninhabitable within the 21st warming to 1.5°C will avoid the worst impacts century. and loss and damage, which is already a ► Other research has suggested that the reality for the RMI. risk of large-scale net loss of land may ► RMI faces diverse risks from climate previously have been overstated, and if change; however, data and reliable natural processes and assets, such as coral 35 reefs, are conserved, human inhabitancy ► Communities will need support to adapt and might be sustained over the long-term. manage disaster risks facing their wellbeing, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Geographic ► RMI’s population already lives in a dynamic isolation and economic vulnerabilities will ecosystem, to which it has adapted, but increase the challenges communities and climate change is likely to increase its decision-makers face. variability, pose new threats, and stress livelihoods. Artwork by Jinghui Joy Huang titled “Our Culture, Our Pride”

1.5 The UNFCCC National commitments to develop resilient infrastructure Adaptation Process and ensure sustainable livelihoods. Projections also tell us that the RMI must start building For many countries like the RMI, national-scale resilience and planning adaptation pathways to climate adaptations that are led through prepare for the coming decades because the existing governance structures, such as TTEC, window of opportunity to do so is closing. require ongoing strengthened engagement and ongoing support from the international community. This includes significant resource allocations, and immediate and long-term 36 C Implementation Strategies NAP PROCESS LING FACTORS ENAB Planning Implementation Financing A B Laying the groundwork Preparatory Institutional and addressing gaps elements Arrangements Capacity Development Information Sharing A B C D Monitoring Elements in the & Evaluation NAP Technical Guidelines D Reporting, monitoring and review Figure 4: Summary of the formal UNFCCC NAP development process11. Parties to the 2010 UNFCCC 16th Conference The objectives of the NAP process are twofold. of Parties (COP16) decided upon the Cancun First, to reduce vulnerability to the impacts Adaptation Framework. This includes a process of climate change by building adaptive for formulating National Adaptation Plans capacity and resilience. Second, to facilitate (NAPs), which are meant to assist countries in the integration of climate change adaptation identifying medium and long-term adaptation coherently into relevant new and existing needs and to develop and implement strategies policies, programs, and activities, in particular and programs to address those needs. development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at The NAP process is designed to be country- different levels, as appropriate. driven, gender-sensitive, participatory, and fully transparent. The general components (Figure 2) Practically, these objectives cover specific include laying the groundwork and addressing projects and programs aimed at decreasing gaps, preparatory elements, implementation vulnerability, enhancing adaptive capacity, and strategies, reporting, monitoring, and review. This a broader evolution of national development NAP document represents the third part of the where climate change considerations are process, which is the development and approval mainstreamed into national governance of the implementation strategies to guide the processes. The RMI Government officially Government of the RMI. launched its NAP process in 2020, building on ongoing work and adaptation work in specific 11 Source: NAP Network, 2019 37 sectors. 1.6 How The RMI NAP Was Developed The TTEC system and particularly the Adaptation Working Group of the TTEC was empowered to develop a self-determined NAP, providing formal oversight of the NAP development process on behalf of the Government of the RMI while the NDCP Working Group focused on ensuring that cross cutting areas were integrated into the adaptation development process12. These Working Groups contributed significantly to the process through detailed reviews and approvals of various scientific, technical, expert, and community reports, surveys, and studies that were undertaken from 2019 to the present13. This NAP represents the most decisive plan developed to date to address the climate change crisis at the national level. It aligns with and builds upon existing national plans and strategies which address climate change and seeks to incorporate the findings of gap assessments and studies to drive a comprehensive, holistic, and practical approach to climate change adaptation. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 12 NDC-Partnership Working Group Report on Gender and Human Rights Analysis: Ensuring a gender-responsive National Adaptation Plan in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. 13 NDC-Partnership Working Group Report on Gender and Human Rights Analysis: Ensuring a gender-responsive National Adaptation Plan in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. 38 Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific

1.7 How The NAP Will Be Used levels of government, and non-governmental stakeholders. Sharing experiences and lessons Government: For government agencies, the learned through the NAP process can also NAP provides a roadmap for integrating enhance global knowledge on adaptation. climate change adaptation into planning and policymaking across different sectors and Civil Society: Civil society organizations (CSOs) levels of government. This can help strengthen can use the NAP to understand government and build upon mechanisms like the TTEC to priorities and strategies for adaptation, which ensure a coordinated and coherent approach can help them align their activities and advocacy to adaptation. NAPs can also provide a basis for efforts. They can also use the NAP to hold the engagement with other stakeholders, including government accountable for its commitments civil society, businesses, and local communities. to climate change adaptation.

1.7.1 By National Stakeholders Business: For businesses, the NAP provides insights into the Government’s plans for adapting Supporting Sustainable Development: to climate change, which can inform their Without proper planning and implementation risk management and strategic planning. For of adaptation measures, climate change example, in specific sectors or regions identified challenges the achievement of the Sustainable as particularly vulnerable to climate change, Development Goals (SDGs). The NAP lays out the businesses in those areas might need additional country’s path to climate resilient development. measures to manage their risks. Businesses can also identify opportunities to support and benefit Enhancing Collaboration and Learning: The from adaptation measures, such as developing NAP aims to facilitate learning and collaboration new products or services. between different government departments, 39 Communities: Local communities can use with the Government to improve coastal the NAP to better understand the risks they management against sealevel rise. face from climate change and the measures Research institutions: Such institutions can also being taken to manage them. This can help use the NAP to guide their research agendas, them participate more effectively in local focusing on the issues and questions most adaptation efforts. For example, working relevant to the country’s adaptation needs. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific

1.7.2 By International Partners effort and ensure that different initiatives are mutually supportive. It will also help to inform Under the Paris Agreement, countries are international donors and multilateral banks encouraged to plan and implement adaptation funding commitments for the implementation efforts and report on these to the UNFCCC. The of the NAP by the RMI government. The GCF has NAP process is an important part of meeting reported that countries with approved NAPs these obligations. More significantly, the NAP are becoming more likely to move through will help international actors, including donors administrative processes and receive funding and implementing partners, align with the RMI’s at greater rates. self-identified needs and objectives rather than being driven by external agendas. Providing a Another critical purpose of the NAP is to identify comprehensive overview of the RMI’s ‘survival and often prioritize areas where the RMI may strategy’ further enables partners to coordinate need support in terms of capacity building. their efforts This can avoid duplication of This includes technical assistance, knowledge 40 transfer, or strengthening institutional capacities. and its international partners. It is a concrete It also provides a monitoring and evaluation plan documentation of our country’s adaptation to keep track of the effectiveness of adaptation needs, the effectiveness of measures to be measures. Lastly, as future partnerships are undertaken, and areas where collaborative negotiated, the NAP will be essential for further efforts will be beneficial. policy dialogue between the RMI Government Artwork by Joenathan Defan titled “Tomorrow”

1.8 NAP Scope, Bounds, and Adaptation planning in RMI differentiates between Limitations barriers and limits. Barriers refer to restrictions or constraints that may restrain our adaptive The RMI National Adaptation Plan declares our capacity and the range of adaptation options commitment to confront the impacts of climate available, yet these are often resolvable. They change head-on. In shaping our intentions, encompass various institutional, governance, we recognize that some challenges can be and political-economic constraints that may met and solved, others avoided, and others affect the RMI government’s ability to adapt. require additional data and evidence for fair Nevertheless, explicit high-level adaptation and equitable decision-making. While the NAP goals and innovative leadership can be vital to is aspirational, it is not a universal remedy; it overcoming these barriers to adaptation. operates within realistic barriers and limitations that merit careful consideration. 41 Limits, on the other hand, represent thresholds integrate climate change considerations across beyond which adaptation is no longer possible. various sectors, also exist. There are challenges These may include ecological constraints that to effective inter-ministerial coordination and pose existential threats to RMI’s survival goals, stakeholder engagement as learnt through the such as sea-level rise for low-lying atoll nations TTEC mechanism since its official set up in 2019. like RMI, creating significant limitations with unavoidable impacts from the loss of territory14. The uncertainty of climate impacts adds to the complexity, making it difficult to develop and This first NAP focuses on a 10-year plan that implement effective adaptation strategies. includes setting conditions for future adaptation, This uncertainty also presents challenges in identifying immediate community needs, and prioritizing adaptation measures. enhancing our evidence-based analysis to define and prepare for longer-term, resource- The NAP, therefore, embodies a broad and intensive adaptive actions in the 10-50+ year complex scope with defined boundaries and horizon. Prioritization of adaptation measures constraints. It presents a robust response to has been essential due to limited resources and climate change, recognizing the inherent considers factors like severity and immediacy challenges, barriers,, and limitations that frame of the risks posed, the number of people and our approach. With an understanding of these communities affected, cost-benefit analysis, multifaceted elements, we are better positioned and the feasibility of implementation. Our to navigate a future impacted by climate vulnerability assessments have provided a change, aligning our aspirations with achievable sound basis for this prioritization. and firmly grounded realities. Engaging various stakeholders, including government agencies, civil society, the private sector, and local communities through the TTEC coordination mechanism, has ensured that the NAP is relevant, effective, and widely supported. Grounding the NAP in national legislative and policy frameworks ensures its legitimacy and institutionalization into governance. However, there are several constraints which must be highlighted. Securing sufficient funding is and will be a significant barrier, as is the case for many developing countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Technical challenges, such as the need to conduct complex vulnerability assessments and 14 IOM, 2023. Republic of the Marshall Islands, Climate Security Risk Assessment Profile. Climate Security Policy Brief. 42 Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 43 44 Section B: THE RMI COUNTRY CONTEXT 45 Section B: THE RMI COUNTRY CONTEXT

2.1 Political Environment Government in RMI is organized through a to as the “Council of Chiefs,” is an advisory mixed parliamentary-presidential system. The body in the governmental structure of the President is the Head of Government, elected Republic of the Marshall Islands. It is designed by the Nitijela, the legislative body, from among to incorporate traditional authority within the 15 its members . The legislative power is vested modern, democratic governmental structure. in the bicameral parliament, consisting of the This council links the country’s traditional Nitijela (lower house with elected members) heritage and its contemporary political system. and the Council of Iroij (upper house with The Marshall Islands Constitution gives it the appointed members), representing traditional authority to review legislation passed by the leaders. This setup ensures a balance of powers Nitijela (Parliament) that affects customary and respect for traditional authority within a law, traditional practices, or land tenure16. If the democratic framework. Regarding the national Council of Iroij objects to such a bill, it is returned electoral process, the Nitijela, also known as the to the Nitijela for reconsideration. This ensures Parliament, consists of 33 members elected that the traditional rights and customs of the for four years in single-seat and five multi-seat Marshallese people are upheld and respected constituencies. The electoral process adheres in the nation’s law-making process. to universal suffrage for all citizens aged 18 and over. In turn, the President and cabinet Compact of Free Association (COFA) form the executive branch of the government, The COFA between the RMI and the United balancing the legislative powers of the Nitijela. States came into effect in 198617. It established The elections are generally free and fair, and a special relationship that allowed the US to political competition is active with multiple operate military bases on RMI territory, primarily political parties and independent candidates. on Kwajalein Atoll, while providing financial assistance, defense, and other benefits to One unique aspect of the RMI’s political the RMI18. Between 1986 and 2003, the US system is the Council of Iroij (Chiefs). This is a Government provided funding to the RMI, spent 12-member body of tribal chiefs that serves a on infrastructure development, education, largely consultative role, particularly on matters health, and other areas. The financial support concerning customary law and traditional continued through a renewed agreement practices. The Council of Iroij, often referred in 2003, which promised the RMI funding 15 Institute of Island Studies, UPEI. 2007. Jurisdiction Project. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/castandea2/docs/ upei-2007.pdf 16 Constitution of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. 1979. https://rmiparliament.org/cms/phocadownloadpap/userupload/ admin/ConstitutionoftheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands1.pdf 17 Congressional Research Service. The Compacts of Free Association. 2022. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/ IF12194/1. Also see, USCIS. 2020. Status of Citizens of the Freely Associated States of the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of the Marshall Islands. https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/fact-sheets/FactSheetVerifyFASCitizens.pdf. Also see, $OI. Compacts of Free Association. 2022. https://www.doi.gov/oia/compacts-of-free-association 18 Congressional Research Service. 2020. The Freely Associated States and Issues for Congress. https://crsreports.congress. gov/product/pdf/R/R46573/2 46 assistance over 20 years (2004-2023). The US The 2023 COFA renewal negotiations underscore also established a trust fund to sustain the RMI’s the need for increased support. As per the economy after the Compact funding ended.19 By stipulations, the Marshall Islands yield control of 2023, this trust fund had grown to over $1 billion. their surrounding waters and airspace to the U.S. military. The delicate balance this requires, However, the sustainability of the fund and its ability to compensate for the cessation of between ceding such sovereign rights and direct Compact grants is uncertain, given the maintaining local services such as education potential volatility of investment returns and the and healthcare, is a key component of these challenges facing the RMI’s economy. The COFA negotiations. also has significant implications for RMI citizens’ migration rights. Image Supplied by Chewy Lin An undisclosed amount is expected to be and its inhabitants. These initiatives include allocated towards a repurposed trust fund. extending healthcare and education grants, This fund will allow the Marshall Islands to funding climate change adaptation measures, prioritize their needs, addressing the impacts and creating a museum and research facility of U.S. nuclear testing, ongoing U.S. military dedicated to the history of U.S. nuclear testing. activities, and climate change. Additionally, the Infrastructure development on Kwajalein Atoll is funding will back various initiatives crucial to the also included in the funding commitments. development and wellbeing of the island nation 19 $OI. 2015. The Government of the Marshall Islands Contributes Additional $650,000 to Trust Fund for the People of the Marshall Islands. https://www.doi.gov/oia/government-marshall-islands-contributes-additional-650000-trust-fund-people- marshall-islands#:~:text=The%20Trust%20Fund%E2%80%99s%20purpose%20is%20to%20contribute%20to,Amended%20 Compact%20of%20Free%20Association%20expire%20in%202023. 47 Nuclear Legacy: The establishment of a National the USA’s nuclear weapons testing program. Nuclear Commission (NNC) under the 2017 Efforts to address nuclear justice for Marshallese 20 National Nuclear Commission Act reflected a people have been ongoing for decades and renewed effort to ensure that the RMI’s nuclear must continue, especially with climate change legacy is never forgotten. The NNC has a core impacts compounding threats such leakages nuclear justice mandate to coordinate the from the Runit Dome, where nuclear waste has government’s efforts to address ongoing, been stored. unresolved issues and challenges arising from Image Source: Business Insider( https://i.insider.com/5daf6aab045a3119eb2b536c?width =800& format =jpeg&auto=webp) Diplomatic and Pacific Relationships: The RMI guide these relations. The RMI is an active maintains cordial relations with its Pacific Island member of a number of regional organizations, neighbors, collaborating on political, economic, such as the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), which environmental, and social matters such as facilitate dialogue and cooperation on climate climate change, sea-level rise, sustainable change, fisheries management, regional 21 development and public health . Shared history, security, and sustainable development. cultural connections, and common challenges 20 RMI Pariliament. 2017. NATIONAL NUCLEAR COMMISSION ACT 2017. https://rmiparliament.org/cms/images/LEGISLATION/ PRINCIPAL/2017/2017-0034/NationalNuclearCommissionAct2017_1.pdf 21 $OS. 2021. U.S. Relations With Marshall Islands. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-marshall-islands/ 48 Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific Exclusive Economic Zone and National Security: living resources within 200 nautical miles of As a large ocean state, the RMI’s EEZ is as much its coast. This jurisdiction affirms the country’s a part of its territory as its land, and threats to it authority over its maritime resources, thus have implications for national security and the bolstering its position in international agreements, 22 economy . As a member of the Pacific Islands treaties, and negotiations concerning marine Forum, the RMI endorsed the 2021 Declaration on conservation, climate change, and sustainable Preserving Maritime Zones in the face of Climate resource use. Change-related Sea-level rise, signaling deep mutual commitment and a strong and decisive Economically, the EEZ is a crucial asset for the step to safeguard the homes and interests of RMI. The EEZ’s abundant marine resources, the Pacific peoples, and maintain peace and including the world’s largest tuna fishery, provide security. a significant source of income. The RMI benefits from the revenues generated by commercial The RMI’s EEZ, a jurisdictional space, affords the fishing within its EEZ, especially through licenses country control over its maritime activity, which sold to foreign vessels. Nevertheless, it’s essential is crucial for national security. It enables the to recognize the challenges associated with management of potential threats such as illegal managing an EEZ. The RMI’s vast area and fishing, smuggling, and unauthorized military limited resources make monitoring, control, and activities. RMI holds exclusive rights to explore, surveillance of the EEZ a considerable task. Illegal, exploit, conserve, and manage living and non- unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing can 22 Pacific data hub. 2021. Republic of Marshall Islands Exclusive Economic Zone (200 Nautical Miles). https://pacificdata.org/ data/dataset/republic-of-marshall-islands-exclusive-economic-zone-200-nautical-miles 49 lead to significant economic losses. Furthermore, the EEZ. As such, the RMI and other Pacific Island climate change, with its potential to disrupt fish nations engage in regional cooperative efforts migration patterns, poses substantial risks to to manage and protect their valuable maritime the sustainability of the marine resources within resources within their respective EEZs. Image Supplied by IOM

2.2 Economic Context The small market size, geographical remoteness, and dispersion of the atolls limit the growth of the Economic Growth and Standard of Living: The private sector. The remaining national income is RMI is a lower-middle-income country with a GDP derived from the service sector, royalties from 23 per capita of US$4,171 in 2021 . Approximately 20% the fisheries sector, small-scale handicrafts, and of the population of RMI has been reported to subsistence agriculture. The industry is limited to live on less than US$1 a day. Based on WHO and the processing of coconut products and tuna25. UNICEF statistics, as of 2015, 77% of the population The US Government provides financial and has access to improved sanitation facilities, 12% technical assistance under the Compact, and to shared facilities, and 4% to other unimproved other development partners (ADB, World Bank, facilities. Due to the geographic spread of the Republic of China Taiwan) also support the RMI islands and atolls, the capability of providing economy. Total official development assistance government services is constrained, and costs received in 2016 was $57 million, accounting for 24 are high due to logistical challenges . 32% of the national income. 23 World Bank, 2021 24 UNICEF & Australian Aid. (2016). A Snapshot of Water and Sanitatoin in the Pacic 2015 Sub-Regional Analysis and Update. 25 Economic Policy, Planning and Statistics Office (EPPSO), Office of the President, .(2018, June). REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS, STATISTICAL YEAR BOOK, 2017. Pacific Environment Data Portal. Republic of the Marshall Islands. 50 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): As per the primarily due to infrastructural spending26. In World Bank, RMI’s GDP in 2019 was about $216 2018, RMI’s GDP growth rate was 3.6%, according million. The GDP growth rate fluctuates based on to the World Bank. The Gross National Income various factors, such as external aid flows, public (GNI) per capita, a measure often used to gauge spending, and extreme climate conditions. Since living standards, was $6750 in 2019, according to 2015, the economy has been improving, growing the World Bank27. by 1.9 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017, Artwork by Mailynn Bias titled “The Sunken Horizon” Employment Rate: A key economic and social from the International Labour Organization (ILO), challenge in RMI is the limited number and the unemployment rate was approximately 36% variety of employment opportunities, though in 2018. the public sector provides many formal jobs. According to 2011 census data, unemployment Key activities and outputs of the Trade and is not high (4.7%), but there is a low labor force Investment Division are as follows: Develop participation level – only 41% of people aged and improve the quality and quantity of 15 or older are actively working . Accurate28 manufactured products; improve packaging unemployment figures are challenging to obtain and labeling to be more attractive and to meet due to the significant informal and subsistence all export requirements; and increase domestic economy. However, per the most recent data consumption of local products. Others are to 26 Gong Yang, & Davis. (2019). Development Finance Assessment for Republic of The Marshall Islands, Leveraging finance for sustainable development. UNDP 27 World Bank Open Data. (2023) 28 GCF. (2019a). 51 increase exports of niche/value-added products, The RMI’s diversification strategy focuses on ensure export products meet international several key areas: The RMI has identified tourism requirements, have smooth and efficient permit as a potential growth area, given its rich history processes, and facilitate trade by ensuring RMI and natural beauty. Efforts are being made to meets import and export standards. develop sustainable, culturally respectful, and environmentally friendly tourism. Challenges to The RMI National Export Strategy (NES) vision is tourism development include the RMI’s remote to transform the RMI into a globally competitive location and limited infrastructure. The RMI’s export-driven economy with diversified high- large exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is rich value-added products and services targeting in marine resources, particularly tuna33. The new markets to provide better employment country is working to leverage these resources opportunities and generate higher incomes. more effectively through licensing fees and To achieve this vision, the potential impacts value-added activities such as processing and from climate change must be understood and transshipment. Regional cooperation through managed. The Office of Commerce, Investment bodies like the Parties to the Nauru Agreement and Tourism (OCIT) also supports the commerce is key to this strategy. The Government has also sector and has wider functions and powers sought to improve food security and reduce designed to catalyze economic and social reliance on food imports through support to development. The OCIT goal is to stimulate the agricultural sector. This includes initiatives to private sector economic activity to increase enhance crop production, develop agroforestry, employment and sustainable Foreign Direct and support smallholder farmers. Investments (FDIs), boost the local economy, and significantly enhance tourism, fisheries, and A vibrant private sector is crucial to job creation micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. and economic growth. Efforts to improve the business environment include reforms to Visitors to the RMI are limited but have steadily regulations, improving access to finance, and risen over the last 20 years, from approximately initiatives to foster entrepreneurship. Given its 4,700 in 2000 to 5,550 in 2007 and 10,771 in 2019. abundant sunshine and wind, the RMI sees Tourism accounts for just under 10% of gross renewable energy, particularly solar and wind domestic product29. The tourism industry power, as a potential area for development. This employed just over 600 Marshallese in 2015, can reduce the country’s reliance on expensive equivalent to an estimated 5.5% of the country’s imported fossil fuels, create jobs, and contribute workforce30. The main tourism activities have to climate change mitigation. The RMI also 31 generally been diving and sport-fishing . Travel sees overseas employment as an important to the RMI is largely by airlines, although two to part of its economic strategy, particularly three cruise ships visit each year, plus a small in the United States. This provides valuable number of unrecorded high-spending yacht employment opportunities for the Marshallese, visitors32. and remittances are an important source of income. This diversification strategy requires 29 Pacific Tourism Organization (2020) 30 Pacific Tourism Organization (2020) 31 Collison and Spear (2009) 32 Strategic Tourism Development Plan 2020-2024, Government of the RMI (2019) 33 World Bank. (2021). Republic of the Marshall Islands Maximizing opportunities, enhancing sustainability COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW. Retrieved from https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/36124 52 substantial support in terms of infrastructure suggesting an end to decades of continuous development, capacity building, policy reforms, population growth in the two main urban atolls. and investment. Implementation can be a Emigration to the United States is increasing, significant challenge, given the RMI’s capacity given that the Compact of Free Association constraints and vulnerability to external shocks, (COFA) allows Marshallese citizens to work and including climate change. study in the United States without a visa34. The preliminary results from the 2021 Census (Table

2.3 Social and Cultural Context 2) display a trend of population reduction across all atolls since 1988, with a 20% reduction Population: The 2021 census shows that the for the whole country (53,158 down to 41,523 number of people living in the RMI has declined, inhabitants35). affecting both rural atolls and urban centers, Table 2: 2021 Census compared to previous census results. The population decrease between the 2011 and 2021 census is also indicated: Yellow: 0-25%; Orange: 25-50%, Red: 50-75%; Purple: >75%. 1988 1999 2011 2021 % Change 2021 to Census Census Census Census* 2011 Marshall Islands 43,380 50,840 53,158 42,465 -20.1 Ailinglaplap 1,715 1,959 1,729 1,179 -31.8 Ailuk 488 513 339 235 -30.7 Arno 1,656 2,069 1,794 1,144 -36.2 Aur 438 537 499 317 -36.5 Bikini 10 13 9 - Ebon 741 902 706 469 -33.6 Enewetak 715 853 664 296 -55.4 Jabat 112 95 84 75 -10.7 Jaluit 1,709 1,669 1,788 1,403 -21.5 Kili 602 774 548 416 -24.1 Kwajalein 9,311 10,902 11,408 9,895 -13.3 Lae 319 322 347 85 -75.5 Lib 115 147 155 119 -23.2 Likiep 482 527 401 234 -41.6 Majuro 19,664 23,676 27,797 23,182 -16.6 Maloelap 796 856 682 401 -41.2 34 Duke, M. R. (2014, May 22). Marshall Islanders: Migration Patterns and Health-Care Challenges. Retrieved from https://www. migrationpolicy.org/article/marshall-islanders-migration-patterns-and-health-care-challenges 35 Economic Policy Planning and Statistics Office of the Republic of Marshall Islands, Population and Housing Census 2021 (PHC 2021), version 01 of the licensed datasets (March 2023), provided by the Pacific Data Hub - Microdata Library. https://microdata. pacificdata.org/index.php/home 53 Mejit 445 416 348 230 -33.9 Mili 854 1,032 738 494 -33.1 Namdrik 814 772 508 300 -40.9 Namu 801 903 780 526 -32.6 Rongelap - 19 79 - Ujae 448 440 364 310 -14.8 Utrik 409 433 435 264 -39.3 Wotho 90 145 97 89 -8.2 Wotje 646 866 859 802 -6.6 Human Development: The latest HDI report36 for and vocational training (TVET) programs. Non- the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) was for formal TVET programs are available through 2019, in which the RMI had an HDI value of 0.70437. the National Training Council (NTC) and via This report puts the country in the high human government funding for non-governmental development category, placing it at 117 out of 189 and private sector training providers. The CMI countries and territories. The HDI value measures and the University of the South Pacific provide the country’s average achievement in human post-secondary education. The RMI Scholarship development. A higher HDI signifies that the program allows a small percentage of students country is showing steady progress in human to access colleges and universities outside the development compared to previous years RMI. A degree program in teacher training is but still has room for improvement, especially available on the island. compared to other countries with a very high human development index. Here’s what the There is a plan for the school system to HDI value represents regarding the three HDI deliver education under four pathways: life components for the RMI: As of the 2019 report, skills (focused on self-sufficiency on islands), the RMI had a life expectancy of 73.0 years. In technical vocation, further education, and 2019, the expected years of schooling in the RMI military. At present, funding is being sought to was 12.7 years, and the mean years of education implement this. The 85 schools of the PSS enrolled was 9.5 years. However, in 2019, the RMI’s GNI per 12,237 students in 2015-2016. As of July 2016, the capita (based on purchasing power parity) was PSS employed 852 teachers and supporting $3,995. personnel. In addition, the PSS also has chartered and oversees 26 private schools that enroll 3,126 Education: The Ministry of Education (MoEd) students. Additionally, preschool programs oversees the education sector within the RMI and are being piloted under a multisectoral early delivers education through the Public School childhood development project. This is intended System (PSS). Some private schools operate to increase access to adequate and quality within the RMI. The Division of the Secondary and maternal and child health services, create Vocational Education runs the MoEd technical opportunities for early stimulation and learning, 36 The HDI value is a measure of the country’s average achievement in human development. A higher HDI signifies that the country is doing well in terms of longevity, education, and income indices. 37 Pedro Conceição. (2020). Overview Human Development Report 2020, The next frontier Human development and the Anthropocene. UNDP. United States. Retrieved from https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/tr/UNDP-TR- HDR-OVERVIEW-EN-2020.pdf 54 pilot a social protection system and support Another challenge is the quality and training of for families with young children. Further, it aims teachers. School infrastructure is also a concern, to address the limited affordability of nutritious particularly in the outer islands. The government diets, especially for children in vulnerable families devotes a considerable proportion of its budget (World Bank, 2019). to education. However, limited resources and capacity constraints are substantial challenges The country faces several challenges in in delivering quality education to all children. The providing quality education to all its children. RMI has made strides in improving education The net enrollment rate in primary education access for girls and children with special needs, in the RMI is high at approximately 94%. The but challenges remain. adult literacy rate is also relatively high, at about 98%38. However, learning outcomes are The number of school-age children is expected a significant concern. Only around 23% of Year to remain constant for the immediate future and 6 students met the minimum proficiency level potentially go up if the PSS successfully reduces for reading, and approximately 24% met the the number of school dropouts and truancy. minimum proficiency level for numeracy39. Despite high enrollment rates, regular school Healthcare: attendance can be challenging, particularly in the outer islands. This situation is due to various The Ministry of Health and Human Services factors, including geographic isolation, limited (MOHHS) is the state health agency that provides resources, and socio-economic issues. Dropout health care services and strategy and policy rates, particularly at the secondary level, are for the people of the RMI. The following table a concern. Only around 33% of students who provides an overview of the healthcare facilities started grade 1 reached grade 1240. (Table 3): Table 3: Healthcare Services Data in the RMI Type of health care facility Urban Area Rural/outer islands Hospitals 2 0 Health centers (HC) 4 49 (2HC in outer islands vacant/no HA {2021}) Private clinics 1 ‘177’ Health centers 2 4 Total 9 53 38 Marshall Islands - World Bank Gender Data Portal. (2018). Retrieved from https://genderdata.worldbank.org/countries/ marshall-islands 39 Pacific Community Educational Quality and Assessment Programme. (2019). Pacific Islands Literacy & Numeracy Assessment 2018 Regional Report. Pacific Community. https://research.acer.edu.au/ar_misc/31 40 ADB. (2015). 2015 ANNUAL REPORT, ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK, SCALING UP TO MEET NEW DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES. Pacific Community. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/182852/adb-annual-report-2015. pdf 55 The hospitals are equipped to provide mainly care services. Some clinics have continuous primary and secondary care and are limited in staffing issues. Medical and public health staff offering tertiary care. Patients needing additional provide outreach to the health centers on the care, such as dialysis, must go out of the country, outer island and within the community. There and these referrals consume a large portion of is a schedule of 21 two-week clinics on each the health sector budget. Health centers in the island per year, but this is difficult to achieve due outer islands are managed through the Outer to capacity, transport, and weather. There are Islands Health Services Division of the Bureau of two hospital laboratories on the RMI with limited Primary Health Care Services. Their focus is on capacity. preventative, promotion, and essential clinical Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 56 Priority diseases have been identified for testing enhanced community resilience and improved in-country, but samples must be sent to one well-being, and an integrated approach to of two referral laboratories in Hawaii or further climate change and health adaptation. This afield for all other specialist testing and other feeds into the health pillar of the National communicable diseases. There is limited mental Strategic Plan 2020-2031(EPPSO, 2020). health support available in the RMI. The Mental Overall, the RMI health sector has seen significant Health Care team at Majuro Hospital consists improvements over the years, but several of only one psychiatrist servicing the country challenges persist due to its geographical and no institutions for persons with mental remoteness, scattered population, and limited disabilities. However, there is a limited holding resources. Access to healthcare services unit at Majuro Hospital for those suffering an varies significantly. While the capital Majuro acute mental health crisis. In addition, the 177 and Ebeye have hospitals providing a range of Health Care Program Clinics provide healthcare services, healthcare access in the outer islands services on the four atolls affected by nuclear is limited, often comprising of health centers testing, including the Department of Energy and dispensaries with basic services41. There is (DOE) clinic that provides medical services to a shortage of healthcare professionals in the nuclear patients under the DOE. One private RMI, with approximately 1.3 physicians per 1,000 clinic provides limited clinical services for the people and 3.3 nurses and midwives per 1,000 people42. NCDs such as heart disease, diabetes, residents of Majuro. and cancer are significant health issues, Regarding training for health professionals, the accounting for an estimated 76% of all deaths in the RMI in 2016. Infant and under-5 mortality Department of Nursing and Allied Health at the rates have decreased but remain relatively high College of the Marshall Islands (CMI) provides a compared to global averages. In 2019, the infant two-year Diploma in Nursing and a Certificate mortality rate was approximately 21 deaths per in Public Health. All other tertiary health training 1,000 live births, and the under-5 mortality rate takes place remotely or off-island. The MOHHS was approximately 25 deaths per 1,000 live developed an initial National Climate Change births43. The RMI has generally high immunization and Health Action Plan (NCCHP) in 2012 in coverage rates; in 2019, about 90% of infants collaboration with the World Health Organization received the DTP3 vaccine, which protects (WHO). However, there was insufficient funding, against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis44. The capacity, and coordination to deliver this plan. country’s total health expenditure was about In 2019, a climate change section was formed, 14.3% of GDP in 2017, indicating a substantial and in 2022, the National Climate Change and investment in health relative to the size of its Health Policy and Revised Action Plan (NCCHPv2) economy45. was passed (Government of Marshall Islands, Culture and Internal Affairs: Marshallese culture 2022). It sets out three main goals: improved is deeply rooted in the land and the ocean, health protection against climate-related risks, with a saying “jolet jen anij” that emphasizes 41 United Nations Children’s Fund, Situation Analysis of Children in the Marshall Islands, UNICEF, Suva, 2017 42 World Bank Open Data. (2023). 43 ibid 44 United Nations Children’s Fund, Situation Analysis of Children in the Marshall Islands, UNICEF, Suva, 2017 45 World Bank. 2019. “World Development Indicators.” URL: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development- indicators 57 the islands’ significance as the most precious The culture has withstood colonization and gift. Traditionally, Marshallese society had clear displacement48, transitioning from German gender roles, but there is an ongoing need influence to Japanese and then United States for improvement in women’s involvement governance, before gaining independence in in political and economic activities46,47. 1986. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific The RMI’s cultural history has been marked by Marshallese people being forcibly relocated and displacement from historic nuclear testing, permanently losing islands49,50. especially affecting the Bikini, Rongelap, Enewetak and Utrok communities. Climate change The richness of Marshallese culture encompasses adaptation efforts must consider this history of matrilineal traditions, community values, and 46 Kattil-De Brum Tonie K.- 2018 “Women of the Marshall Islands and Environmental Change: Agency and Power in Resource Management” Thesis for MES - University of Waikato, NZ 47 RMI-MoCIA - May 2018 “Gender Equality - Where do we stand?” 48 Displacement: The movement within a State and/or across international borders of people who are forced or obliged to leave their homes or places of habitual residence due to sudden-onset natural hazards and/or slower, cumulative pressures occurring in the context of climate change. 49 Embassy of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to the United States of America. (n.d.). 50 Barker 2013: 61 58 a close relationship with land and sea. The plan also underlines the need for up-to-date dominant Christian religion has influenced registration for births, deaths, and marriages, social norms and community life. Indigenous recognizing this as crucial for planning in an knowledge, including traditional practices in uncertain future, especially with the growing fishing, agriculture, ecosystem management, challenges of climate change. Furthermore, the and decision-making, offers insights into Strategic Plan includes measures to prevent resource management, food security, and child abuse and neglect, reflecting concerns participatory governance. Modern challenges about family dispersion across islands or exist in balancing cultural preservation with overseas. It details comprehensive procedures modernization, addressing social issues, and for adopting children, acknowledging that managing the impacts of globalization and adoption might remain significant due to climate change. Climate change’s threat to various social factors like dislocation, migration, Marshallese culture and identity is especially livelihood stresses, and teenage pregnancies. It significant, as it directly endangers the low-lying emphasizes the preservation of the historic and atolls that comprise the nation and serve as a cultural heritage of the RMI, stemming from the foundation for identity and social organization. fear that displacement or destruction due to climate events could lead to a loss of identity The Ministry of Culture and Internal Affairs and culture. (MoCIA) plays a pivotal role in preserving and promoting Marshallese culture. Its vision is to A holistic development approach is advocated “preserve, protect, and provide for the cultural to facilitate the Marshallese people’s physical, and social rights of the people of the Marshall spiritual, intellectual, and social productive Islands.” The MoCIA comprises nine divisions and development. This becomes even more crucial seven overarching programs, including electoral in the context of the climate crisis, encompassing administration, local government, human rights, areas like education, health, and livelihoods. The child rights, disability coordination, and more. plan’s commitment to increasing the role of The Community Development Division (CDD) women in national development emphasizes the aims to improve the quality of life through social need for women’s voices in decisions, especially and human rights programs, targeting the most for successful adaptation to climate change. vulnerable, such as women, children, youth, Lastly, the plan calls for increased efforts to persons with disabilities, and senior citizens. It is inform, educate, and entertain the people of the also involved in ongoing work to draft, implement, RMI effectively, including better connectivity to monitor, and report on national policies serving atolls and effective public broadcasting to raise marginalized persons’ interests in the RMI. awareness and educate about climate matters. The MoCIA’s three-year Strategic Plan for 2021 to 2023 outlines several key focus areas. It emphasizes the importance of efficient and fair elections, reflecting the need for democratic decisions around climate change that consider local views. It calls for improving the operation of local government, considering that climate change impacts are highly localized. The 59 Image Supplied by IOM

2.3 Technological and Infrastructure Several state-owned enterprises also have Contexts control over infrastructure assets and services, including Air Marshall Islands Inc.; Kwajalein Infrastructure in the RMI comprises the Atoll Joint Utilities Resources Inc. (KAJUR); Majuro fundamental physical facilities and systems Atoll Waste Company; Majuro Water & Sewer providing the services and facilities necessary Company; Marshalls Energy Company Inc (MEC); for the economy and society to function (Table Marshall Islands Shipping Corporation (MISC); 4). It comprises roads, bridges, schools, hospitals, Marshall Islands National Telecommunications ports, airports, water supply, wastewater, solid Authority (NTA); Office of Commerce, Investment, waste, electrical grids, telecommunications, and and Tourism; and the RMI Ports Authority. “hard” climate change adaptation measures (such as seawalls). The infrastructure asset The RMI National Infrastructure Investment Plan base of the RMI is generally managed under the (NIIP 2017-2026) (RMI, 2017) has been developed oversight of the Ministry of Works, Infrastructure, as part of the strategic planning framework, and Utilities (MWIU). However, there are which is founded on the Strategic Development connections to other key agencies, including Plan Framework and National Strategic Plan the Ministry of Health (responsible for health (NSP). The NIIP forms the priority infrastructure facilities), the Ministry of Education (responsible development goals for ten years between 2017 for school facilities), and the Ministry of Transport and 2026. The total investment proposed for the and Communications (MTICT) (responsible for identified priority projects equals $732 million, regulatory oversight of air and sea transport, including project management costs, institutional and telecommunications). projects, and infrastructure maintenance for the strategic infrastructure areas. Accountability for 60 implementing the NIIP is the responsibility of the with the Ministry of Finance and Foreign Affairs, MWIU in coordination with the Chief Secretary which acts as the interface with bilateral and Office and Project Management Unit. MWIU multilateral development partners that support works closely with each relevant implementing the financing of the NIIP-related projects. ministry, agency, or state-owned enterprise and Table 4: Access to Infrastructure Elements by Community (82 communities in total) Infrastructure Element Majuro Communities with Neighbouring Island Access to Element (out of 11) Communities with Access to Element (out of 71) Airport 10 25 Dock 3 7 Boat for community use Unknown 51 Phone 11 19 Internet 11 6 Mobile Phone 11 11 Radio (VHF and HF) 11 71 Solar Power 11 64 Electricity 11 9 Coastal Protection: Coastal Protection is MWIU is in the process of implementing a overseen by MWIU, focusing on developing new Building Code for RMI, which will establish and maintaining assets such as sea walls. The minimum standards such as finished floor goal is to shield private and public assets from levels and wind loads. Mapping Majuro for these climate hazards like erosion, storm surges, king minimum requirements is underway based on tides, and sea level rise, thereby reducing the specific risks in different areas. risk of damage. One current example is the construction of a 450m long seawall near the With funding from international partners new stadium on Majuro, with a budget of $1 through PREP II, MWIU is engaged in the Ebeye million, to counter indirect impacts from the Coastal Protection Engineering Design and existing seawall. Construction Supervision project. This initiative will establish a 2.1km coastal protection system The purpose of coastal protection is not only on Ebeye’s western coastline. A final design has to preserve existing infrastructure but also to been selected following extensive community enhance the adaptability of national and local consultation, with mobilization and construction government agencies to climate change, boost work to commence as soon as practicable disaster risk reduction, and encourage resilient following the signing of a formal construction investments. Specific benefits will be rendered contract. This project forms part of a broader to communities residing near vulnerable coastal Climate Resilient Coastal Protection Project areas and the RMI population and economy. aimed at enhancing early warning systems and 61 minimizing climate change effects. The maritime sector is a cornerstone of the RMI’s transportation system. There are several Additionally, MWIU is exploring locations for sea seaports, with the largest in Majuro. Government- walls around Majuro as part of the RMI Urban subsidized shipping services offer crucial inter- Resilience Project, supported by the World Bank. island transportation for people and goods. Strategies such as “Hold the Line, Advance the Line, Local Government councils usually oversee the Managed Realignment, or No Active Intervention” Outer Island seaports, but the lack of proper are under consideration. A holistic approach facilities can lead to damage or loss during is being emphasized to ensure that future goods transfer. An ambitious project funded investments align with long-term adaptation by the World Bank aims to enhance safety and plans, potentially including relocation, thereby efficiency in maritime infrastructure, taking fostering cross-sectoral action. climate change into account53,54. A roadmap prepared by the MTCIT outlines strategies for Transportation: Transportation in the RMI plays sustainable domestic maritime transportation, an essential role in connecting the nation’s including emission reduction and connectivity 29-atoll territory. Given the dispersed geography, improvement. There are even innovative plans various means of transport, including sea, air, for traditional sailing canoes funded by the and land, are vital for economic development, German Government to revive Marshallese international trade, tourism, and overall quality navigation traditions. of life51,52. Image Supplied by IOM 51 UN. 2022. Permanent Mission of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to the United Nations. https://www.un.int/ marshallislands/marshallislands/country-facts 52 CIA. 2023. Marshall Islands. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/marshall-islands/ 53 ST. 2019. Marshall Islands: profiling a key shipping player. https://www.ship-technology.com/analysis/marshall-islands-and- the-shipping-industry/ 54 62 Air travel provides vital connections both The challenges faced in the transportation domestically and internationally. The national sector are significant and multifaceted61. airline, Air Marshall Islands, operates domestic Services can be infrequent, and travel times flights, but international connections are are long due to large distances between limited to locations like Hawaii, Guam, and Fiji. islands. Additionally, maintenance problems The primary gateway for international flights have historically plagued air operations. is the Amata Kabua International Airport Transportation infrastructure, including ports, (AKIA) in Majuro, overseen by the RMI Ports airports, and roads, is susceptible to damage Authority. Outer Island airports are generally from climate-related impacts, such as unsealed, demanding additional maintenance. tropical storms and high waves. There are also Three outdated planes service these areas, challenges in coordination and planning for highlighting the need for further investment long-term service levels. 55,56,57,58 and infrastructure enhancement . The importance of air services to the outer islands in However, transportation infrastructure and terms of social and economic linkages cannot service improvements can positively impact be underestimated59. the RMI’s economy. The MWIU, MTCIT, RMI Ports Authority, and other governmental bodies Land transport is the primary mode of mobility are responsible for different aspects of within the islands for both people and goods. transportation and work towards development The MWIU is responsible for developing and and proper maintenance. A coordinated maintaining roads, including storm drains and approach is necessary, as seen in the USD the sole bridge on Majuro. Roads are limited, 33.12 million RMI Maritime Investment Project and less than ten percent are paved, but land and the strategic plans for domestic maritime transport plays a crucial role in tourism and first- transportation. mile/last-mile connectivity for transport hubs roads60. On Ebeye, land transport falls under the Telecommunications: The primary provider of Public Works division, while other outer atolls and telecommunications services is the Marshall islands’ road maintenance is the responsibility of Islands National Telecommunications Authority each respective Local Government. Vehicles are (NTA), a state-owned entity62. It provides various commonly used in Majuro, while bicycles and services, including telephone, internet, and walking remain common elsewhere. 55 APC. 2019. REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS PORT AUTHORITY. https://www.pacificports.org/republic-of-the-marshall- islands-port-authority/ 56 List of airports in the Marshall Islands. (2022, March 27). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_the_ Marshall_Islands 57 Luan. 2022. THE AIRPORTS IN MARSHALL ISLANDS: A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE. https://traveltastic.blog/the-airports-in-marshall- islands/ 58 FlightConnections. 2021. Airports in Marshall Islands. https://www.flightconnections.com/airports-in-marshall-islands-mh 59 AMA. 2023. Welcome to AIR Marshall Islands. https://www.airmarshallislands.net/ 60 CIA. 2022. Field Listing; Roadways. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/roadways/ 61 World Bank. 2021. Marshall Islands: New Climate Study Visualizes Confronting Risk of Projected Sea Level Rise. https://www. worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/10/29/marshall-islands-new-climate-study-visualizes-confronting-risk-of- projected-sea-level-rise 62 World Bank. 2021. Digital Republic of the Marshall Islands Project (P171517). https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/869991611289543219/pdf/Project-Information-Document-Digital-Republic-of-the-Marshall-Islands-Project-P171517. pdf#:~:text=The%20majority%20government-owned%20Marshall%20Islands%20National%20Telecommunications%20 Authority,and%20international%20telecommunications%20services%20in%20the%20Marshall%20Islands. 63 cable TV. Mobile phone coverage in the RMI has optics to major areas and has installed solar- improved significantly in recent years, although powered Demand Assigned Multiple Access coverage may still be limited or nonexistent on (DAMA) systems in 70 schools. These systems, some of the more remote atolls. The International though affected by environmental factors, are Telecommunication Union (ITU) reported a maintained regularly. mobile-cellular telephone subscription rate of 18.5 per 100 inhabitants in 2019. Internet Connections to Starlink are being made across connectivity is also challenging due to the RMI’s the RMI for more stable connections, especially geographical isolation and dispersed population. in outer atolls. The main data backbone comes According to the ITU, between 2018 and 2022, from the HANTRU-1 submarine cable from Guam, the annual average percentage of individuals installed in 2009, providing a 6 Gbps link. An using the internet in the RMI was approximately onward cable connects Majuro to Ebeye with 2 38% 63,64,65 . This indicates a significant digital Gbps capacity, but no current backup systems divide, with many people unable to access the exist. NTA’s MHTV+ platform offers 4K HDR IPTV internet due to lack of coverage, affordability, or services with 45 channels and On-Demand digital literacy. In recent years, the RMI has made access. They have also implemented an strides in improving internet connectivity. In 2020, Emergency Cellular Broadcast system, reaching the country was connected to the wider world up to 20 thousand people, and operate an HF through its first submarine fiber optic cable, radio base for emergencies. The communication which links Majuro with Kwajalein Atoll and the services and infrastructure are considered global internet. dated, with NTA exploring new solutions for emergency preparedness. One major project The Ministry of Transportation, Communications by MTCIT involves creating a Digital Platform for and Information Technology (MTCIT) oversees data collection, including migration data and telecommunications services, carrying out climate change studies. This will aid in planning the National Information Communication and support for various RMI projects. Additionally, Technology Policy. This policy emphasizes open international partners are supporting the Pacific and competitive markets, modern regulation, Regional Connectivity Program aims to bring non-discrimination, universal service for remote high-speed internet to the region through areas, and optimal resource usage. Marshall submarine fiber-optic cables, with construction Islands National Telecommunications Authority expected to be completed by 2023. This (NTA), a state-owned entity, is the sole provider connection will likely increase bandwidth and of telecommunications services in the RMI. reduce latency, enhancing internet access for NTA’s mission is to offer efficient connectivity the country’s residents. to all Marshallese people. Established in 1987 and privatized in 1991, NTA delivers 4G services Energy and Power Generation Sector: RMI’s in central islands and has plans for 5G by energy strategy is encompassed in National 2024. It provides internet through DSL and fiber Energy Policy and Action Plan (2016), and the 63 Tradingeconomics. 2023. Marshall Islands - Individuals Using The Internet (% Of Population). https://tradingeconomics.com/ marshall-islands/individuals-using-the-internet-percent-of-population-wb-data.html 64 Indexmundi. 2021. Marshall Islands Internet users. https://www.indexmundi.com/marshall_islands/internet_users. html#:~:text=Internet%20users%3A%20total%3A%2029%2C290%20percent,of%20population%3A%2038.7%25%20%28July%20 2018%20est.%29 65 Kemp, S. 2022. DIGITAL 2022: THE MARSHALL ISLANDS https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2022-marshall-islands 64 Electricity Roadmap. The aim of the RMI National infrastructure, human resource development, Energy Policy to implement renewable energy policy, and financing to decrease dependence and energy efficiency measures to achieve on diesel through significantly increasing 20% renewable energy by 2020 has not been renewable energy. The Electricity Roadmap fully met though progress has indeed been covers four types of systems: grids for Majuro made. Although over 95% of RMI’s energy still and Ebeye, mini-grids, hybrid solar-PV systems, relies on diesel, the policy also strives to reduce and individual solar home systems or standalone vulnerability to climate change by shifting power systems.The government has set a target from oil to renewable energy sources. The to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2050. policy proposes investments in technology, Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific The National Energy Office (NEO) guides policy under a Combined Utility Board of Directors. development and implementation activities in the sector. The Marshall Energy Company The National Energy Policy’s goal for the outer (MEC), a state-owned enterprise, is the sole islands is to ensure all development through electric power provider responsible for electric renewable energy sources. NEO and MEC’s power in Majuro and two outer-island regional partnership has led to more than 3,100 solar centers, Jaluit and Wotje. MEC also manages home systems installed throughout the RMI, the retail diesel supply in RMI for generating and offering a total PV capacity of over 580kW. transmitting electricity in certain atolls. KAJUR is Additionally, they’ve partnered with PSS to install the sole provider for generating and transmitting solar PV systems in six primary schools in the electricity in Ebeye, with both MEC and KAJUR outer island atolls. 65 The RMI’s energy sector is in a transition phase, 116kt CO2-e; in 2016, it was approximately 121 kt with robust plans and policies to reduce CO2-e (excluding fishing). The electricity sector dependence on diesel and enhance renewable accounted for 47% of national emissions in 2016. energy sources. The collaboration between Consequently, to achieve the stated overall governmental offices, state-owned enterprises, national emission reductions, diesel usage in this and international support underscores a sector will need to be at least 65% below 2010 concerted effort to achieve sustainable energy levels by 2030, assuming all others sectors meet goals, align with global agreements, and mitigate their reduction targets. vulnerabilities related to climate change. The challenge is that the demand for electricity The RMI has historically been heavily dependent services is expected to rise concurrently. The on imported fossil fuels for electricity generation; government must also ensure that electricity this has significant economic implications, with remains affordable for all consumers in an fuel imports accounting for up to 25% of total equitable way. While renewable energy can import expenditure. Over 90% of the population reduce fuel costs, we must also consider has access to electricity66,67,68,69 largely because the increased equipment maintenance and most of the population resides in high-access replacement expenses. urban areas like Majuro and Ebeye, compared to Efforts to minimize losses in electricity supply, outer islands. The RMI has significant potential for promote energy efficiency, and encourage solar and wind energy generation and has made behavior change can reduce the need for strides toward harnessing these resources. The extensive investment in generation equipment, current installed solar PV capacity stands at 3.5 leading to overall cost savings. Transitioning to MW. The country has implemented measures to renewables will reduce emissions and decrease improve efficiency, such as upgrading power our reliance on imported fossil fuels, thus reducing plants and distribution systems and promoting our vulnerability to oil price shocks. This shift energy-efficient appliances70. towards utilizing local solar and wind resources The RMI’s Nationally Determined Contribution enhances our energy security and resilience in (NDC) sets ambitious goals for reducing the face of global oil price fluctuations. Moreover, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The ensuring that our infrastructure remains resilient commitment is to reduce economy-wide GHG to the growing risks posed by climate change emissions by 32% below 2010 levels by 2025, is crucial. This includes improving the reliability with additional targets of 45% by 2030, and of grids on Majuro and Ebeye and enhancing achieving net zero emissions by 2050. In 2010, system serviceability on the outer islands. national emissions were estimated at around 66 Macrotrends. 2023. Marshall Islands Electricity Access 1999-2023. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/MHL/marshall- islands/electricity-access-statistics 67 $OE. 2020. Marshall Islands Energy Snapshot. https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/marshall-islands-island-energy- snapshot-2020 68 IRENA. 2022. Energy Profile: Marshall Islands. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Statistics/Statistical_ Profiles/Oceania/Marshall%20Islands_Oceania_RE_SP.pdf 69 Ritchie, H. and Roser, M. 2022. Marshall Islands: Energy Country Profile. https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/marshall- islands 70 World Bank. 2021. Republic of the Marshall Islands. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/ doc/3f5eff0253b00386e9ef80d0e95b4d5e-0070012021/original/RMI-Country-Insert-A4-DIGITAL.pdf 66 Table 5: Targets for the RMI electricity sector, derived from RMI’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement

2.4 Environment and Infrastructure environmental management as set out in the National Environmental Protection Act of 1984 The Ministry of Environment (MoE) was and the Coast Conservation Act of 1998. Under established in 2018. Its role is to enhance or the EPA’s purview are reviewing the impacts of strengthen collaboration and coordination water quality, land and coastal management, in the protection of the environment, conservation, waste and pollution, conservation, restoration, and sustainable environmental information management, use of natural and genetic resources. This education, and awareness of societal activities. includes the safeguarding of related cultural resources, and the utilization of sustainable Water, Sanitation, and Waste: Like many atoll and renewable energy. Further, it is mandated nations, the RMI faces significant challenges to address mitigation and adaptation to regarding freshwater resources and water climate change impacts and natural hazards, security. Its unique geographic characteristics, including through increased communication small size, remote location, low-lying atolls, and within government and stakeholders and human impacts such as population growth enhanced implementation of existing Acts. The and climate change drive these challenges. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), one of Freshwater resources in the RMI are limited and three divisions of MoE, was established in 1984 primarily depend on rainfall, which replenishes with the mandate to preserve and improve thin freshwater lenses - layers of fresh the quality of the environment. EPA now sits groundwater that float atop denser seawater under the MoE and is a statutory authority in the porous coral atoll. These lenses are highly consisting of an independent Board with broad vulnerable to over-extraction and pollution. Most policy functions and mandates related to of the population relies on rainwater harvesting 67 as a significant source of drinking water. Most sanitation facilities in 201772737475, but water households have rooftop catchment systems scarcity remains an issue. The water supply in linked to storage tanks. However, the capacity the RMI varies across different islands and is and quality of these systems can vary widely, managed by various agencies. Majuro Water and during periods of drought, they may not and Sewer Company (MWSC) provides water to provide adequate supply. The public water Majuro Island, sourced from airport catchment, supply in Majuro and Ebeye is sourced from roof runoff, and groundwater. However, the freshwater lenses and rainwater catchment, system is constrained by a failure rate of 40%. but the supply is intermittent, often limited to a Ebeye Island relies on a desalination plant, while 71 few hours a week . This water is also subject to the outer islands depend on rainwater or shallow quality issues. wells. The ‘Addressing Climate Vulnerability in the Water Sector’ (ACWA) Project, launched in Freshwater resources are vulnerable to 2021, aims to enhance rainwater harvesting contamination from human activities, including and storage across the RMI. Drought response inadequate sanitation systems and waste includes 54 seawater reverse osmosis plants, a disposal. The high population density in Majuro vital initiative in a region where water scarcity can and Ebeye may exacerbate these issues. be acute, particularly during drought conditions. Climate change poses significant threats to water security in the RMI. Rising sea levels can Wastewater management in Majuro includes a increase the salinization of freshwater lenses, saltwater reticulated system run by MWSC, with while changes in rainfall patterns, including only a third of urban households connected. drought and intense rainfall events, can impact In Ebeye, a system utilizing saltwater has been rainwater supplies and water quality. With plagued by low pressure and sewage line support from international partners, the RMI infiltration. Many outer atolls lack adequate Government has been implementing various facilities, relying on ill-maintained pits and septic measures to improve water security. These tanks. Projects and trials, such as composting include infrastructure improvements, such toilets, are underway to conserve water and as upgrading water supply and distribution prevent sewage leakage. systems, increasing storage capacity, and improving sanitation facilities. There are Solid Waste Management is a multifaceted also efforts to enhance water management challenge in the RMI. Solid waste comprises practices, including water conservation and household and commercial waste, including demand management, and to build resilience food waste, packaging, and hazardous materials to climate change impacts. such as used oil and batteries. In Majuro, waste is disposed in open dumps like the Batkan Over 50% of the population had access to basic dump, with minimal treatment or segregation. 71 The Republic of the Marshall Islands: state of the environment report 2016. Apia, Samoa : SPREP, 2016 72 PRIF. 2021. Sanitation Options for Pacific Island Countries: Vanuatu and Republic of Marshall Islands. https://www.theprif.org/ sites/default/files/documents/PRIF_SanitationReport_V7.pdf 73 FAO. 2020. REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOOD SECURITY PROFILE. https://www.fao.org/3/cb3975en/cb3975en.pdf 74 Indexmundi. 2021. Marshall Islands - Access to basic sanitation services. https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/marshall- islands/access-to-basic-sanitation-services 75 UNICEF. 2021. In the Pacific, thousands of people will still lack access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene in 2030 unless progress increases – warn WHO, UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/pacificislands/press-releases/pacific-thousands-people- will-still-lack-access-safe-water-sanitation-and-hygiene 68 Outer atolls often dispose of waste through and structural deficiencies in incineration 76 burning or burying . Recycling initiatives have facilities. A composting facility in Laura and been increasing, especially for materials like recycling efforts, including container disposal aluminum cans and plastic bottles. The Majuro legislation since 2018, contribute to waste Atoll Waste Company (MAWC) oversees solid management improvements. In Ebeye, the waste management in Majuro, collecting Kwajalein Atoll Local Government (KALG) household waste and green waste, but faces manages waste collection and disposal, but is challenges such as limited landfill capacity facing environmental and leachate problems. Image Supplied by the Marshall Islands Journal

2.5 Natural Resource Context habitats for other species valuable to local subsistence fisheries, such as grouper, snapper,

2.5.1 Fisheries and reef-associated sharks. Commercial fishing, particularly for tuna, is a significant part of the RMI fisheries is critical to the country’s ecology, RMI’s economy (Table 6). The RMI’s Exclusive economy, and livelihoods. The extensive coral Economic Zone is part of the Parties to the Nauru reefs and vast oceanic territory support diverse Agreement (PNA), which controls the world’s marine species. Tuna is particularly abundant in largest sustainable tuna purse seine fishery78. the region, including skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye, Under the PNA’s Vessel Day Scheme, the RMI and albacore, making the waters of the RMI sells fishing days to foreign fishing vessels, one of the richest tuna grounds in the world77. providing significant revenue. Fishing is not just Additionally, the reef ecosystems provide 76 The Republic of the Marshall Islands: state of the environment report 2016. Apia, Samoa : SPREP, 2016 77 Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority, Annual Report 2021. (2021). Retrieved from https://www.rmimimra.com/media/ attachments/2022/12/19/fy2021-mimra-annual-report.pdf 78 Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority, Annual Report 2021. (2021). Retrieved from https://www.rmimimra.com/media/ attachments/2022/12/19/fy2021-mimra-annual-report.pdf 69 an economic activity in the RMI but also crucial countries (excluding the Territories) and the 19th for local livelihoods and food security. largest EEZ in the world. About half of RMI’s EEZ borders international waters to the north, and Many Marshall Islanders engage in subsistence the other half borders three other Pacific Island fishing to supplement their diets and income. nations (Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, This is particularly important in outer atoll and the Republic of Kiribati) to the south. communities, where employment opportunities are limited, and imported food can be expensive The Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority and of lower nutritional value. Fishing is also a (MIMRA) is the agency responsible for managing key part of the local culture and traditional the fisheries resources for the RMI. MIMRA operates knowledge, with techniques passed down per the Marshall Islands Marine Resources Act through generations. Challenges include 1997. As set out in section 119 of the Act, the overfishing, particularly by distant-water fishing mandate of MIMRA covers both the inshore nations, climate change impacts on fish stocks coastal and offshore fishery resources in the 200 and coral reefs, and access to better data to nautical mile EEZ and any RMI-flagged vessels manage fisheries sustainably. On the other fishing outside the RMI EEZ. MIMRA’s mission is to hand, the RMI has significant opportunities to facilitate the sustainable and responsible use of increase the benefits gained from its fisheries, marine resources in the RMI. such as through value-adding catch processing, increasing local participation in the commercial One of the key connections in the RMI that MIMRA fishing industry, and sustainable aquaculture. relies upon in the fisheries sector is the RMI Ports authority responsible for developing, maintaining, The RMI has an EEZ of about 2,131,000 km2 with a and operating all seaports. The RMI has two land area of about 181 km2, making it the fourth wharves in Majuro, Uliga Dock (domestic) and largest EEZ amongst the other Pacific Island Delap Dock (international), and one in Ebeye. Table 6: Fishing revenue for 2019-2021. Source of Revenue 2021 Revenue (USD$) 2020 Revenue (USD$) 2019 Revenue (USD$) VDS $26,027,040 $28,112,074 $28,143,896 Fishing Rights $3,629,878 $3,579,787 $2,314,357 Licensing and registration $2,164,040 $2,300,800 $2,573,000 of fishing vessels Transshipment fees $347,000 $319,000 $538,000 Fishing violation fines and $600,000 $100,000 $200,000 fees Observer fees $610,450 $660,594 $766,760 Others $39,113 $127,584 $73,253 Total Revenue $33,417,481 $35,199,839 $34,609,266 70 Oceanic fisheries: The contributions of tuna to the The Majuro port is the only designated port economy are so substantial that RMI is termed for transshipment in the RMI, and it is a major ‘tuna-dependent’ (Bell et al., 2021). Significantly, regional hub for purse seine transshipment. 95% of all tuna caught from the jurisdictions of Majuro is the second busiest port in the world the 22 Pacific Island countries and territories after Busan in South Korea based on the number comes from the combined EEZs of these 10 SIDS, of foreign vessel visits (1168) and the first in the and access fees paid by industrial fishing fleets world in terms of foreign fishing vessel hold size provide an average of 37% (range = 4−84%) of (943,000 m3)80. their government revenue (excluding grants). For the RMI in 2021, access fees to commercial Coastal fisheries: The coastal fishery resources fisheries via the VDS were approximately US$31 and activities are deeply rooted in Marshallese million, representing 47.8% of government culture and provide employment and nutrition. revenues. The main commercial fishing method The per capita seafood consumption in the RMI in the RMI is purse seine, with skipjack tuna being is estimated to be between 38.9 and 59.0 kg per the prominent species, comprising 93% of the person per year (Gillett, 2016). Coastal waters are total, followed by yellowfin tuna (6%) and bigeye defined by the Zones Declaration Act 2016 and tuna (1%)3. Longline and pole-and-line fishing extend out to 12 nautical miles around all atolls also occur within the waters of tuna-dependent and islands (defined in the Act as “the Territorial Pacific SIDs, but, in general, and particularly in Sea”) and out to 50 nautical miles around Majuro, the RMI, they make minor contributions to the Arno, and Kwajalein atolls (Special Management economy compared with purse-seine fishing. In Areas). Inshore fisheries areas are protected for addition to the revenue generated by the fishery artisanal and game-fishing and are defined as vessels operating in the RMI EEZ, the RMI has the sea and seabed to a distance of 5 miles 79 from the atoll baseline. developed significant shore-based facilities . Figure 5: Volume of fish catches on the Island 79 Examples include the Marshall Islands Fishing Venture longline Fish Base that processes fresh chilled tuna and the Pan Pacific Foods loining plant processing skipjack from the purse seine fishery. 80 Hosch et al., 2019 71 Much of the catch (Figure 5) is sold through the crops for subsistence, 10.2% for both income Outer Islands Fish Market Centre in Majuro, the and subsistence, and just 0.2% for income alone. Kwajalein Atoll Fish Market in Ebeye, and Fish Bases Although that census considered 64% of the located at Aur, Maloelap, Arno, Jaluit, Wotje, Likiep, total land area of the RMI to be arable, only 11% of Namu and Ailinglaplap. The Fish Bases supply the RMI was used for crop production then. The locally caught fish to the Fish Markets in the two Ministry of Natural Resources and Commerce urban centers of Majuro and Ebeye. Ciguatera (MNRC) is responsible for Agriculture, Forestry, is an issue, and research continues on causes Quarantine, and Trade and Investment. of ciguatera fish poisoning on outer islands to safeguard the supplies at the Fish Markets and Currently, agricultural production (excluding Fish Bases. fisheries) represents a relatively small proportion of the RMI economy (around 4% of GDP) but is There are four companies engaged in the a critical source of livelihood, especially on the outer islands. The principal commercial crops export of crustaea (Paguristes, Calcinus are coconuts and breadfruit. Copra, the dried- elegans, Pusiostoma mendicaria, Ophiocoma out meat of coconuts, currently accounts for scolopendrina); giant clams (Tridacna derasa, only about 1% of GDP. Copra processing is done Tridacna maxima, Tridacna squamosa, primarily through the Tobolar Copra Processing Hippopus hippopus); live corals; and aquarium Authority (Tobolar), a State-Owned Enterprise. fish (Pomacanthidae, Serranidae, Labridae, Tobolar guarantees the purchase of all Microdesmidae). The commercial viability of coconuts harvested in the RMI and is responsible farming and marketing black pearls, giant clams, for collecting, transporting, and processing the soft and hard corals, and small volumes of raw material, paying farmers for their produce, ornamental fish has been demonstrated. Public and selling the final products. The Government sector support via technical assistance for provides a significant subsidy to Tobolar. mariculture development has been significant over the years, and several initiatives have been Consequently, the value chain of copra and implemented with the support of government, coconut plantations rehabilitation and replanting continues to be championed as key pathways bilateral, and international agencies. MIMRA to promote economic development and operates giant clam hatcheries on Arno and income generation. The NSP 2020 also identifies Likiep and a hatchery at Woja on Majuro. The that while there is some underutilized land in the Woja hatchery provided black-lipped oyster RMI, which offers potential for increased output spat to local farmers but is being renovated to of agricultural food crops, this is limited, and soil produce giant clams. conditions are generally poor. The agricultural sector is a key focus area for the MNRC to

2.5.2 Agriculture improve the resilience of the Marshallese, which is identified as one of the five strategic areas Agriculture was traditionally a key component supporting the economic development pillar in the RMI economy, emphasizing permanent of the NSP 2020. Relevant legislation and policy crops and plantations. However, by the 2011 include a food security policy, a trade policy, national census, there has been a steady an export strategy, the Marshall Islands Organic decline and loss of engagement in agriculture, Farmers Association (MIOFA) Strategy, a Forest with only 52% of households raising crops. Action Plan, and an Agriculture Sector Plan. Among these households, 42.2% were growing 72 These plans generally address food production, physical assets is the newly remodeled nursery security, and ecosystem services for the nation. in Delap District on Majuro Atoll. The purpose Several programs are being implemented of the nursery is to promote food security and by MNRC that are underway to respond to plant conservation through seedling production and adapt to climate change. This includes and distribution in Majuro, and the provision of moving from introduced agricultural practices agricultural equipment and services81. MNRC has associated with planting root crops like kumara also been working on a program to establish five and taro to traditional practices, such as nurseries on the outer atolls, with one currently replanting coconut trees, breadfruit trees, and established on Ebeye doing well, alongside pandanus trees, as the root crops are labor- one in Arno due to proximity to Majuro, so the intensive and more susceptible to droughts, products can easily be transported and sold. poor soil, and sea level rise. One of the MNRC’s Artwork by Hazel Peter titled “Cheers” The agriculture division also works closely with practices. Forests are also important to the RMI, stakeholders and supports capacity building with 70% of the RMI covered in forestry (Forest in developing and promoting sustainable, Inventory and Analysis – FIA 2008 and 2018). improved small livestock management The RMI’s natural tropical forest ecosystems 81 From April to December 2020, the nursery distributed 4,980 seedlings and supports work by MNRC to encourage households to establish home gardens. However, interest in this program has dwindled in recent years. 73 are traditionally used in wood production, Historically, several national-level policies, plans, food production through agroforestry, trees and strategies have mentioned climate change in home gardens, and non-timber forest as a primary driver of development decisions products (notably pandanus fiber). However, for the RMI. In practice, however, implementation these areas are generally under-examined gaps, lack of necessary resources, and faulty with data and information gaps regarding designs of progress indicators for accountability biodiversity, importance, socio-ecological have slowed progress in climate resilience functions, uses, traditional management, and building. geographical information. Available information was developed only in established plots, which The National Strategic Plan (NSP) 2020-2030, may not fully capture the state of forests based on the Vision 2018 format, provides a and forestry management in the RMI. These comprehensive framework for development forests play essential roles in food security and but lacks specific actions and measures. climate change mitigation, providing coastal Its effectiveness relies on a monitoring and stabilization, windbreaks, and habitats for many evaluation framework. The Nationally Determined species. Contribution (NDC) of 2018 outlined ambitious emissions reduction targets, and the RMI became The activities of the quarantine division are the first country to submit an updated NDC. critical to the ongoing health of the RMI’s natural biodiversity and agricultural activities, as well as These targets align with the National Energy current and future export and trade activities. Plan and National Climate Change Policy goals. The division conducts quarantine inspections The RMI Strategic Development Plan Framework and law enforcement on all incoming aircraft 2003-2018 (Vision 2018) set forth key drivers for and vessels to the RMI. In addition, with the development, including socioeconomic self- Division of Agroforestry, the division performs reliance, environmental sustainability in the face surveys and monitoring of pests. The quarantine of climate change, and supporting neighboring division’s core objectives are to prevent the islands’ livelihood and well-being. These drivers introduction and further spread of injurious align to advocate, raise awareness, and educate pests and diseases into and within the RMI and on climate change and resilience building in the to safeguard agriculture, livestock, and the RMI’s National Strategic Plan 2020-2030. However, no natural biodiversity. specific policy is dedicated to increasing climate awareness and knowledge.

2.6 Legal and Policy Context Several policies have included consideration The main substantive legislation relevant to of climate change adaptation. The Tile Til Eo national planning for climate change adaptation 2050 Climate Strategy aims to achieve net-zero are: The RMI Maritime Zones Declaration Act 2016 greenhouse gas emissions and 100% renewable I, The Protected Areas Network (PAN) Act (2015), energy goals by 2050 while accelerating The Coast Conservation Act 2008, The Marshall adaptation and resilience measures. The Islands Marine Resources Act 1997; The Historic National Oceans Policy and Implementation Preservation Act 1991; The Planning and Zoning Plan provides a roadmap for marine resource Act (1987); The National Environmental Protection management, and the Water and Sanitation Act (NEPA) 1984 and its Environmental Impact Policy and Proposed Action Plan serve as a Assessment (EIA) Regulation (Section 21); The framework for climate-resilient water sector Land Acquisition Act 1968. development. The 2011 National Climate Change 74 Policy Framework emphasizes the need natural hazards, including typhoons, droughts, for education, awareness, and community and sea-level rise due to climate change74. mobilization to prepare for climate change’s These hazards threaten the country’s critical negative effects. However, implementation has infrastructure and sustainable development74. been limited, and the National Adaptation Plan The RMI has developed policies and frameworks (NAP) is expected to drive the implementation for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and disaster of this policy. While there is no specific policy risk management (DRM) in response to these on information management and services, challenges. The Joint National Action Plan for the National Disaster Management Office has Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster developed the Bok Am Melele (BAM) information Risk Management (JNAP) was developed management strategy, which is yet to be in 2014 and outlines a unified approach to implemented. Efforts to improve information addressing climate change adaptation and management for resilience and support the disaster risk management83,84. The JNAP was implementation of BAM are underway. never implemented although its goals were taken into the NAP development. The National In 2018, the RMI became the first country to Strategic Plan acknowledges climate change submit an updated (second) NDC formally. The and disaster risk as significant challenges and NDC aims to achieve an economy-wide GHG emphasizes the need for sustainable and emissions reduction of at least 32% below 2010 resilient development85,86. It also highlights the levels by 2025 and at least 45% below 2010 levels need for strong partnerships and cooperation by 2030, as well as an indicative target to reduce at the local, national, regional, and international its emissions by at least 58% below 2010 levels levels to address these challenges. by 2035 with the aspiration to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The RMI’s emissions peaked The National Disaster Management Office in 2009 and have been decreasing since, in (NDMO) coordinates disaster response and alignment with its National Energy Plan and recovery efforts in the RMI87,88. With a new National Climate Change Policy goals. In 2010 DRM law 2023, the Office will work closely with (baseline year for the RMI), total emissions were other government departments and local and approximately 185 Gg CO2-e, just 0.00001% of international partners to manage and reduce 82 global GHG emissions . disaster risks and promote resilient development. Lastly, the RMI is a signatory to the Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Risk Management: Resilient Development in the Pacific89 and the Due to their geographical location and features, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction90, RMI’s atolls are highly vulnerable to various 82 World Bank (2020a) 83 RMI. 2014. Republic of the Marshall Islands Joint National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation & Disaster Risk Management 2014 - 2018. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/mas170016.pdf 84 UNEP. 2014. Joint National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management 2014–2018. https://leap. unep.org/countries/mh/national-legislation/joint-national-action-plan-climate-change-adaptation-and-disaster 85 PRIF. 2020. Marshall Islands National Strategic Plan 2020 to 2030. https://www.theprif.org/media/106 86 RMI. 2021. RMI National Strategic Plan. https://rmi-data.sprep.org/dataset/rmi-national-strategic-plan 87 DEVEX. 2020. . National Disaster Management Office (NDMO - Marshall Islands). https://www.devex.com/organizations/ national-disaster-management-office-ndmo-marshall-islands-150648#:~:text=The%20NDMO%20is%20responsible%20 for%20disaster%20risk%20management,and%20objectives%20of%20National%20DRM%20strategy%20are%20achieved 88 RMIEDP. 2021. NDMO Strategic Plan. https://rmi-data.sprep.org/dataset/ndmo-strategic-plan 89 PIF. 2020. The Framework for Resilient Development in the Pacific. https://www.forumsec.org/frdp/ 90 UNDRR. 2015. What is the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction? https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai- 75 which provide guidelines and support for and the reduction of climate and disaster national efforts.mage Supplied by Webmedia risk for the well-being of its people91. It directs South Pacific agencies and recommends to the Cabinet through the Chief Secretary on climate change

2.7 Institutional Governance Of policy, resilience to climate and disaster risk, and Climate Change reporting against global climate change and The Tile Til Eo Committee (TTEC) provides national disaster reduction conventions. oversight of the RMI response to climate change Image Supplied by IOM The scope of its oversight is through accountable and analyzing and responding to their impact agencies and includes: (i) Mitigation of emissions on RMI; (iv) Addressing processes and reporting and related energy, transportation and waste requirements under the UNFCCC and Paris planning and implementation - including the Agreement including National Communications, monitoring of national policies and NDC targets; Biennial Update Reports, Technology Needs (ii)Adaptation to climate change and disaster Assessments and Nationally Determined risk planning and implementation - including Contributions and others; (v) Addressing other the National Adaptation Plan with a focus on the global and regional climate and disaster risk well-being of the Marshallese people in the face platforms for their application to RMI and the of climate change and disasters (iii) Receiving regional Framework for Resilient Development Assessments and Special Reports from IPCC in the Pacific; (vi) Promoting the application framework/what-sendai-framework 91 C.M. 124 (2019). Reformation of the Tile Til Eo Committee 76 of resilience measures and the reduction of The functions of the Adaptation Working Group climate and disaster risk in sector practices and include: the development and preparation of development planning through the NSP and RMl’s National Adaptation Plans; Facilitating sector plans, strategies and policies; (vii) national awareness of adaptation issues; Development and monitoring of integrated Facilitating and promoting adaptation policy for climate change and climate and measures through all sectors; Advice on disaster resilience in RMI; (viii) Coordination of RMl’s adaptation communication; Developing technical and political dialogue and messages adaptation components of national reporting both internal and to the global discussion. processes; Facilitating integration of traditional knowledge in adaptation measures and The Environmental Advisory Council (EAC), activities; Facilitating national discussions on established under the National Environmental adaptation options based on sound scientific Protection Act Rev 2003, oversees environmental data and information; and Ensuring community issues and the Environmental Protection participation from all islands and groups in Authority (EPA) activities. The TTEC sits in parallel discussions involving adaptation measures with the EAC, focusing on climate change. The intended for them. work of the TTEC is conducted through Working Groups and Task Forces as appropriate, making The functions of the RMI NDC Partnership Working recommendations to the TTEC. Each Working Group include: Representing the interest of Group or Task Force is headed and convened the Global NDC Partnership (and any funding by an accountable agency. The TTEC has source) in the Mitigation and Adaptation Working established Working Groups for Mitigation, Groups; Providing/developing integrated cross- Adaptation, and the RMI NDC-Partnership. cutting inputs and services to the Mitigation and Adaptation Working Groups, including Women’s The functions of the Mitigation Working Group issues and gender, Human rights, Vulnerable include: the implementation of the Electricity groups, Youth and children, Health services, Roadmap; Maintenance of the National Energy Education services, Outer island engagement, Policy and Action Plan; Awareness campaign Capacity building, Climate financing and and activities to promote energy conservation financial services, Global leadership, Monitor and energy efficiency; Promotion of enhanced implementation of RMI’s Climate Strategies. use of renewable energy technology and phase-out of fossil fuels; Collection, compilation, Within the Ministry of Environment, the Climate and analysis of relevant energy data for other Change Directorate (CDD) reports to the activities such as GHG inventory and advice Minister on all climate change topics, including on policies on conservation, prices, and others; adaptation. The CCD is also coordinating Development of mitigation components for and supporting adaptation planning and national reporting processes; and Development implementation by other ministries and agencies of policies and actions in other sectors including in the government. transportation and waste. 77 Figure 6: Tile Til Eo Structure Several ministries are nationally involved in various climate change policy and management aspects. Five ministries serve on all three Working groups, attesting to their larger responsibilities and greater expectations on the national climate change front: Environmental Protection Authority (AWG, MWG), Ministry of Natural Resources and Commerce (AWG, MWG), Ministry of Works, Infrastructure and Utilities (AWG, MWG), Ministry of Transportation, Communication and Information (AWG, MWG), Ministry of Culture and Internal Affairs (AWG, NDC-P). The NDC-P Facilitator is part of all three WGs to attend to multiple cross-cutting issues, and the Climate Envoys can participate in all three WGs when appropriate for them to do so. 78 79 80 Section C: A SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR RMI’S CLIMATE ACTION 81 Section C: THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR RMI’S CLIMATE ACTION

3.0 Climate Baseline The RMI has a warm, tropical climate year- the RMI is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). round, with average temperatures around 27 C o Following severe El Niño events, rainfall can be and annual precipitation of approximately reduced by as much as 80%, with the dry season 350 cm. Two seasons are recognized: a wet beginning earlier and lasting longer. As a result, season between May and November and a drought remains a common hazard in the RMI, in drier season between December and April. the northern atolls. Climate is governed by the trade winds and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) movement92. Year-to-year variability in climate is also strongly influenced by El Niño conditions, which bring drought conditions to the RMI93. Figure 7 shows the most recent climatology for observed temperature and precipitation across the seasonal cycle for the latest climatology, 1991–2020. There are relatively constant temperatures around 80-82°F (26.7-27.8°C), but significant changes in precipitation occur between the dry and wet seasons. In addition, there is a considerable difference between the northern atolls, which receive less than 50 in (125 cm) of rain each year and are very dry in the dry season, and the atolls closer to the equator, which receive more than 100 in (250 cm) of rain each year. Historically, average air temperature has increased by 0.3°C per decade in Kwajalein since 1960 and by 0.12°C per decade in Majuro since 1956, and the number of hot days and nights have increased at both locations. Rainfall has decreased by 30 mm per decade in Kwajalein since 1960 and by 77.4 mm per decade in Majuro since 1956. In addition to the long-term observed decrease, the main driver of rainfall in 92 Linacre, E. & Geerts, B. (1998). Movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. URL: http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/ cwx/ notes/chap12/spcz.html 93 The NextGen projections for the Pacific region under CMIP5 are expected to be available from late 2021. These will provide an update on the PACCSAP 2014 projections referenced in this profile. The process for providing the new NextGen CMIP6 projections for the Pacific is still in the planning phase. 82 Figure 7: Average monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and rainfall in the Marshall Islands, 1991-202094. Evidence suggests that warming trends across trend in annual rainfall at Majuro, statistically the islands are consistent with global warming significant at the 5% level, since 1954.23 This trends95. There have been observed increases could be due to a shift in the mean location in the annual and half-year mean temperatures of the ITCZ away from Majuro and a change in at Majuro (southern Marshall Islands) since 1955 the intensity of rainfall associated with the ITCZ. and at Kwajalein (northern Marshall Islands) There has also been a decrease in the number since 1952, which are statistically significant at the of Very Wet Days since 1953. Notable inter-annual 5% level. Maximum and minimum temperature variability associated with the El Nino-Southern trends at Kwajalein are much stronger compared Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is evident in the to Majuro, although it seems that the rate of observed rainfall records for Majuro since 1954 change has been faster at Majuro. Additionally, and Kwajalein since 1945. The remaining annual, the frequency of Warm Days for the region has seasonal, and extreme rainfall trends at Majuro increased while the number of Cool Nights has and Kwajalein show little change. decreased at Majuro and Kwajalein. Historical warming shows a significant increase in the rate 3.1 Extreme Weather of warming post-1980, suggesting that over the subsequent 40-year period, the climate in the Floods, Typhoons, and Storm Surge vicinity of the RMI warmed by approximately The RMI is affected by rapid onset (typhoons 23

0.6 C. o Evidence also suggests a decreasing and floods) and slow onset (droughts) natural 94 World Bank, 2022, Climate Risk Country Profile: Marshall Islands 95 Subbarao, S. & Mucadam, R. (2015). Second National Communication of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. United Nations Development Program/Global Environment Facility. Suva, Fiji. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/mhlnc2.pdf 83 hazards. Typhoons (Figure 8) are relatively moderate or large trade and locally generated infrequent, with an average of 22 per decade waves coinciding with high tide levels. Severe being recorded between 1977 and 2011, with and damaging flood events are caused by 18% of these typhoons developing into severe occasional large swell wave conditions caused events (i.e., Category 3 or stronger). Low-intensity by distant storms causing elevated water levels “nuisance’ and intense ‘severe’ flooding in the (wave set up) over reef flats, wave over wash RMI are primarily caused by (a combination of) and widespread inundation over islet land areas, extreme water levels, waves, and rainfall (Figure and typhoon events resulting in raised sea 8). These are mainly due to nuisance flooding levels (storm surge) and large wave conditions, caused by high (king) tide levels inundating causing wave-set up over the reef flats, wave low-lying land and wave overtopping of the over wash and widespread inundation over islet immediate shoreline and low-lying land due to land areas. Figure 8: Causes of coastal flooding in the RMI (Deltares 2022c). Rare precipitation events are often referred 25-year Return Level by 2050 under all RCPs to as events of a certain return level, and the of CIMP5 ensemble modeling for the Marshall 5-day cumulative rainfall indicator focuses on Islands, it is noted that compared to the historical the maximum rainfall amount over any 5-day value, there is a minor increase (<10%) but these period that can be expected once in an average are associated with great uncertainty. Future 25-year period. Changes in this indicator may projections as illustrated in Figure 9 highlight significantly impact infrastructure and endanger the projected change in annual maximum life and property through direct physical effects 5-day rainfall of a 25-year return level. Projected and perhaps water quality issues. As such, any median changes seem to be small initially, then significant changes in the heavy rainfall event’s increases closer to 2100, but the range of rainfall magnitudes must be understood. Based on change is very broad. Further contextualization recorded 5-Day Cumulative Rainfall for 1986– and monitoring is therefore required going 2005 and projected 5-Day Cumulative Rainfall forward. 84 Figure 9: Projected change in annual maximum 5-day rainfall (25-year return level) Typhoons (tropical cyclones) have historically Marshall Islands caused an average USD 63 affected the Marshall Islands. The tropical million per typhoon.28 cyclone archive of the Northern Hemisphere indicates that between the 1977 and 2011 seasons, Between 1979 and 2015, eighteen significant 78 typhoons developed within or crossed the flooding events have been recorded in Majuro Marshall Islands EEZ, and 18% of these became and classified into six categories97. Three of severe events (Category 3 or stronger). This these categories are associated with wave/ represents an average of 22 typhoons per swell generation in North Pacific, South Pacific, decade, although there is large interannual and tropical storms or typhoons, respectively, variability.96 Typhoons were most frequent in and three with lagoon side inundation that can El Niño years (50 typhoons per decade) and occur from swell penetration into the lagoon least frequent in La Niña years (3 typhoons and locally generated waves, both coinciding per decade); the neutral season average is 18 with high tides. The occurrence and magnitude cyclones per decade. Although there have been of high (king) tide events are primarily influenced notable recent storms, such as Bavi and Nangka by the astronomical tide, ENSO effects on mean in 2015, Tropical Storm Zelda in 1991 remains sea level, and underlying mean sea-level rise. on record for causing significant damage to The highest astronomical tides in the RMI tend homes and livelihoods, affecting almost 6,000 to occur around the equinoxes. Significant persons. In 1997, Typhoon Paka caused US$80 inundation events due to long-period swell million of damage to crops and affected 70% of or typhoons have tended to cause extensive houses on Ailinglaplap Atoll, and it is estimated damage on a particular atoll or group of atolls that during a 20-year period, typhoons in the in the RMI, historically, around every 10 to 20 96 Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2014). Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific: New Science and Updated Country Reports. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Technical Report, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia. URL: https://www. pacificclimatechangescience.org/wp content/uploads/2014/07/PACCSAP_CountryReports2014_WEB_140710.pdf 97 Ford et al., 2018 85 years. Significant flooding impacts from long- island berm height, are not static but dynamic period swell waves, often generated by distant landforms that evolve due to erosion and (reef) mid-latitude storm events, occurred over 7-8 accretion (Figure 10). The width and elevation of 98 December 2008 and between 27 November the reef platform strongly influence the amount 99 and 4 December 1979 . of wave energy reaching the shore and, hence, the potential for coastal flooding. Wide, shallow The severity of flooding depends on its cause reef flats covered by healthy coral ecosystems and the geomorphological features of an effectively reduce waves. island that influence flooding processes. These features, such as the reef platform elevation and Figure 10: Wave and sedimentary processes on an atoll island 100 The exposure of islands to wind and waves by the atoll rim. Djarrit is again less vulnerable depends on their geographic location. In the than Rongrong because of sheltering by the RMI, islands heavily exposed to the northeastern neighboring atoll Arno. trade winds and resulting swells are more prone to coastal flooding. Islands can be sheltered from these waves by the atoll rim (Figure 11, left panel) or other islands (Figure B.3, right panel). In Majuro, southwest-facing islands (e.g., Laura) are less vulnerable than northeast-facing islands (e.g., Djarrit and Rongrong) due to sheltering 98 Hoeke, et al. 2013 99 Spennemann 2002 100 Masselink & Kench 2021 86 Figure 11: Varying degrees of wave exposure within Majuro Atoll (left panel; red indicates large waves while blue indicates small waves) and for the RMI (right panel; darker red indicates larger waves and yellow indicates smaller waves). Source wave hind-cast data: (SPC, 2020). Because of the low topography of all RMI atolls (128 mm) between 1993 and 2018. This is higher (less than 9.8 ft - 3m in height), sea level rise than the observed global mean sea level rise remains one of the country’s most important (3.2 in - 81 mm) during that period. Measured climate change impacts, and its threat is sea level rose in Majuro by 0.14 in (35 mm) per increasing. Sea level rise is measured by one tide decade for the period 1968–2018, increasing to gauge located on Majuro Atoll. The observed 0.19 in (49.2 mm) per decade over the period mean sea level in Majuro increased by 5.04 in 1993-2018 (NOAA, 2019)101 (Figure 12). Figure 12: Sea level observations and projections for Majuro (Bamber et al., 2019). 101 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level 87 RMI is not in a seismically active area, and its 0 and +150 days. The projected change for the narrow continental shelf limits the generation Marshall Islands likely signals the potential for of high tsunami waves, but extremely active extremely uncomfortable conditions, with local seismic zones in the Pacific can generate impacts and repercussions. However, it is noted earthquakes and tsunamis capable of traveling that further research is required to understand great distances. The Pacific Catastrophe better the implications of climate change and Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative 2011 its interaction with the ENSO phenomenon for its estimated the average annual loss related to future regime and potential heat waves. typhoons and tsunamis/earthquakes to be around 1.7% of gross domestic product (i.e., $3 An additional factor for consideration is the million). They estimated that in the next 50 years, potential for marine heat waves. Research has RMI has a 50% chance of experiencing a loss shown that “from 1925 to 2016, global average exceeding USD 53 million and a 10% chance of marine heatwave frequency and duration experiencing a loss exceeding USD 160 million. increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave Heat Waves days globally”.102 While such research has not explicitly identified the Marshall Islands under Heat waves are defined as a period of 3 or more threat, the consequences of these trends may days when the daily temperature remains above be severe for marine ecosystems in the region, the 95th percentile.22 This becomes highly likely which are adapted to survive under very stable as the RMI approaches 2100. The RMI regularly temperature regimes and the livelihoods experiences relatively high temperatures, with dependent on them. a mean annual temperature of around 27.6oC and the highest in September at an average Drought of 27.7 C. o Ensemble-based yearly mean temperature anomalies in the Marshall Islands Drought events in 2013 and 2015 affected 27,384 are projected to reach even up to 3.1oC by 2100 persons, just over half of the then current total (Table 2), with a projected ensemble mean population of 59,000 people, 2 with an estimated change in the maxima of the daily maximum economic damage cost of around US$5 million.6 temperature of 3.3oC, compared to the historical Drought can be expressed in many ways, from mean. By 2100, the projected change in the Heat simple precipitation deficits to complex estimates Index 35 for the Marshall Islands is 356.25 days of remaining soil moisture. The Standardized per year by the 2090s, under RCP8.5 (Figure 6b) Precipitation Index (SPI)9 drought projections for – this Index represents a change in the total very low and very high emissions (RCP2.6 and count of days where the daily mean heat index 8.5), and for both the northern and southern rose above 35oC relative to the reference period Marshall Islands, show that the overall proportion (1986–2005). While noted instances of Heat Index of time spent in drought is expected to decrease 35 may be primarily found in monsoon regions under all scenarios. However, it should be noted and some subtropical locations with high that complex processes relating to rainfall humidity,25 in general, the values vary between projections, including the limited consensus 102 Oliver, E. C., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A., Alexander, L. V., . . . & Holbrook, N. J. (2018). Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature communications, 9(1), 1324. URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ articles/PMC5893591/ 88 of future ENSO influence for the region, hinder time intervals (Figure 13). The likelihood for the confidence of these projections of drought severe drought analyses the frequency at frequency and duration. Another lens through which prolonged dry conditions are expected. which to view drought risk is the Standardized Projections suggest that southern atolls are Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), more likely to face severe drought compared to widely used today as a global measure for northern atolls in the Marshall Islands in the near drought monitoring over various cumulative long term. Figure 13: Project change in Annual Mean Drought Index for RMI.

3.2 Future Climate Forecasts Pacific. Extreme El Niño events may become more common, and El Niño-driven rainfall Weather and climate in the Pacific region are variations near the equator may be enhanced controlled by the location of the Inter Tropical under global warming. Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and are affected The IPCC’s sixth assessment report uses a new by ENSO events, which are and will continue to set of scenarios derived from the RCP scenarios, be the major cause of year-to-year climate the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios variations in the Pacific. El Niño events will be (SSPs). However, downscaled information for warmer, although projections regarding the the RMI based on the latest generation of frequency and intensity of future ENSO events climate models and the SSPs scenarios were are inconsistent. ENSO-driven rainfall changes unavailable when this NAP was developed, so are expected to intensify in the central-east the RCP scenarios and 5th generation of climate equatorial Pacific and the western equatorial models are used instead. 89 Based on the global climate models used Kwajalein and by 3% in Majuro by 2090, and Sea for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, The level will rise by 1.58 ft (48 cm) by 2090. Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Under a high emission scenario (RCP6.0), Average identified the best models for the Pacific Small air temperature will increase by 3.4°F (1.9°C) in Island Developing States (P-SIDS) and produced Kwajalein and 3.2°F (1.8°C) in Majuro by 2090; climate projections for different countries. Annual rainfall will increase by 5% in Kwajalein Although a range of climate scenarios103 and Majuro by 2090 and; Sea level will rise by 1.61 was used, this summary provides the projections ft (49 cm) by 2090. for the low-emission scenario (RCP2.6) and the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), including the Under a very high emission scenario (RCP8.5): two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0). Average air temperature will increase by 5.6°F These projections are for 2090 or 2100, but the (3.1°C) in Kwajalein and 5.4°F (3.0°C) in Majuro impacts will continue after that, particularly sea by 2090; Annual rainfall will increase by 14% level rise. Each scenario provides a projected sea in Kwajalein and by 8% in Majuro by 2090; level rise over time with a range of confidence Current extreme rainfall events (5% probability levels. Figure B.5 shows the mid-point expected occurrence in any one year) will have a 20% sea level rise for the three emissions scenarios probability of occurrence in any one year in adjusted for RMI conditions.104 Kwajalein and a 16.7% probability of occurrence in any one year in Majuro; Rainfall during these The following is the summary of climate extreme events will increase by 1.3 in (32 mm) in projections. Under a very low emission scenario Kwajalein and 1.2 in (30 mm) in Majuro by 2090 (RCP2.6) (this scenario is still possible, but and; Sea level will rise by 2.13 ft (65 cm) by 2090. emissions are currently off track), Average air temperature will increase by 1.4°F (0.8°C) by If the melting of Greenland and Antarctic 2090, and Annual rainfall will increase by 3% by ice sheets continues at the current rate or 2090. Others are current extreme rainfall events accelerates, sea level in Kwajalein and Majuro, (5% probability of occurrence in any one year) respectively, may rise by between 4.0-4.4 ft (1.22- will have a 12.5% probability of occurrence in any 1.33 m – intermediate scenario) and 10.7-11.2 ft one year in Kwajalein and an 11.1% probability of (3.26-3.43 m – extreme (very low probability but occurrence in any one year in Majuro; Rainfall physically possible scenario)) by 2100. Sea level during these extreme events will increase by rise combined with wave action and extreme sea 6mm in Kwajalein and 9mm in Majuro by 2090 level events is currently the dominant feature of and; Sea level will rise by 1.35 ft (41 cm) by 2090. climate change projections within the RMI. They will result in more frequent and intense coastal Under a low emission scenario (RCP4.5): Average flooding and land overtopping, key climate air temperature will increase by 2.7°F (1.5°C) determinants for atoll/island habitability, as they by 2090; Annual rainfall will increase by 5% in directly affect land usage and water resources. 103 These scenarios are generated by combining outputs from different climate models and are presented as an average (mid-point) value with a confidence range. They are periodically updated with improvements in simulations of the SLR processes and their rate of change. Their application is reviewed in the “Climate Science Stocktake and Gaps for the RMI NAP Report CCD” NAP Support Team/CCD - August 2021 104 The most recent updated projections were prepared in 2021 resulting in a new series of scenarios designated SSP. The differences between the RCP and the SSP series are nominal out to 2090. The SSP series has not yet been updated for RMI conditions and so the RCP series is presented here. In due course the SSP series should be adopted once adjusted for RMI conditions – as for any future adjustments from IPCC. 90 Saltwater Intrusion: Freshwater lens (FWL) on salinity levels, allowing saltwater intrusion into RMI’s small low-lying atoll islands will experience the FWL, whereas low tides permitted freshwater 105 an increasing threat of salinization . This expulsion into the lagoon. Large rain events phenomenon is prompted by threats like high quickly freshened groundwater wells, though tides, particularly king tides, decreased rainfall, conductivity recovery was slower. An overwash large wave events, and sea-level rise. Rising event led to temporary groundwater and salinity temperatures could cause the reservoir’s already level increases. Groundwater and salinity levels limited freshwater resources to evaporate more also mirrored the falling trend in Mean Sea quickly. The freshwater lens that floats above a Level during an El Niño-Southern Oscillation mixed saltwater base will be elevated because event. These findings underscore the atoll of sea level rise, and its slope and head will also aquifer’s sensitivity to atmospheric and oceanic increase. This is likely to cause an increase in influences and highlight the FWL’s vulnerability lateral saline mixing, increased evaporation to climate change-induced rainfall and sea through pits and wells, increased loss of fresh level alterations. Worryingly, this is likely the case water by coastal leakage, saline water being across many of RMI’s low-lying atolls. brought within reach of coconut and other tree crop roots or well and pump intakes, and an overall reduction in the supply of fresh water106. Human actions such as contamination, over- extraction, and island modification pose further risks. A study on Roi-Namur Atoll examined conductivity (salinity) in groundwater wells in response to severe rainfall and seasonal patterns107. Tidal lag and efficiency, dependent on the shoreline distance, were demonstrated. Responses of the nearshore aquifer to an island over wash event were tracked. Freshwater outflow patterns and saline boundaries of the FWL were outlined using ERT profiles, while depth-specific geochemical pore water measurements affirmed the fresh-saline water boundaries. Submarine Groundwater Discharge was also calculated relative to tidal fluctuations. The research showed that the timing of various threats significantly influenced their impact on the FWLs. High tides caused the greatest rise in groundwater and 105 Oberle FKJ, Swarzenski PW, Storlazzi CD. Atoll Groundwater Movement and Its Response to Climatic and Sea-Level Fluctuations. Water. 2017; 9(9):650. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090650 106 World Bank. (2021, June). Climate Risk Country Profile, Marshall Islands. World Bank. Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/ report/marshall-islands/climate-risk-country-profile-marshall-islands 107 Hinkel, J. et al., 2014. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st-century sea-level rise. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 111(9), 3292-3297. 91 92 Section D: CLIMATE IMPACTS, RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES Artwork by Debby Schutz titled “Ijunamnam” 93 Section D: CLIMATE IMPACTS, RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES

4.0 Introduction Vulnerability is defined by the third report of the and indigenous knowledge. “Niti” means “to bring International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) together,” while “jela” refers to understanding, as the degree to which a system is susceptible which means when we come together, more to and unable to cope with adverse effects of understanding and knowledge sharing is climate change, including climate variability possible. What this terminology demonstrates 108 and extremes . Vulnerability combined with is the importance of community engagement exposure to climate hazards forms an overall – that lived experiences are a valuable form of 109 picture of risk (as shown in Figure 14) . indigenous science. A holistic assessment of climate impacts Climate impacts and risks are also scientifically and vulnerabilities in the RMI depends on measured and evaluated using climate models, understanding science-based measures as statistical analysis, and scientific studies. This well as the lived experiences of climate impacts may include assessments of potential impacts by people and communities.110 Both are equally such as changes in temperature, sea-level rise, important to maximize meaningful adaptation extreme weather events, and other climate- opportunities. related changes113. Assessing climate vulnerability through a We consider communities’ views of their impacts sectoral approach is essential. Different sectors, and vulnerability as central to designing such as agriculture, water supply, energy, and adaptation strategies. Communities perceive, health, are affected by climate change in distinct interpret and react to climate impacts and risks111 ways. Rising temperatures and altered rainfall based on lived experiences, cultural beliefs, patterns may necessitate varying responses media coverage, and political attitudes112. The in these areas. A sectoral approach helps highest political body in the Marshall Islands, to identify these unique challenges and the Parliament, is named after the term “Nitijela.” formulate tailored response strategies. In the context of this report, we use the term Allocating resources effectively is vital in “nitijela” to refer to community lived experiences addressing climate vulnerabilities, and a sectoral 108 BECA Consultants, 2023 109 Shah et al. 2013 110 Full details in the International Organization for Migration, Jo-Jikum, Marshall Islands Conservation Society, The University of Melbourne, and Wutmi United Together Marshall Islands. 2023 “My heritage is here” : Report on Consultations with Communities in the Marshall Islands in Support of the Development of the National Adaptation Plan. International Organization for Migration: Majuro. 111 Van der Linden, S., 2015. The social-psychological determinants of climate change risk perceptions: Towards a comprehensive model. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 41, 112-124. 112 Weber, E. U., 2010. What shapes perceptions of climate change? *Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change*, 1(3), 332- 342. 113 Hinkel, J. et al., 2014. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st-century sea-level rise. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 111(9), 3292-3297. 94 analysis allows us to prioritize and deploy also allows us to understand how sectors resources efficiently. Alignment with existing interconnect and influence each other, providing policy and regulation is another key benefit of a holistic view of system resilience. a sectoral approach. Since policies are often structured around specific sectors, assessing This approach also recognizes the social and climate vulnerability in this way implements economic considerations linked to different changes which are more feasible. Additionally, sectors, offering insights into how climate it enables sensitivity to local conditions and change might affect various parts of society variations within a country, accommodating differently. Using the best available data for specific vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities each sector and area results in more accurate in different regions. A sectoral perspective and actionable insights. Figure 14: How disaster risk increases as risk components – hazard, exposure, and vulnerability – increase. Source: Adapted from World Bank (2013).

4.1 Vulnerabilities of Spatially vulnerable populations and underrepresented Dispersed Communities groups (persons with disabilities, women, youth, migrants, deportees, private sector, etc). In keeping with this Marshallese philosophy, Findings demonstrated that the Marshallese are this NAP draws on findings of significant not passive victims of these changes. They are and unprecedented consultations with RMI responding in the best ways they can, but these communities. Methods were developed for the responses are constrained by poverty and a lack local context and deployed over more than 120 of access to services. They are thoughtful about days of site visits across 15 atolls and islands to what forms adaptation might take to ensure hear from some 1,362 people, about 3% of the they can remain in the islands they call home. national population. Those consulted included 95

4.1.1 The Lived Experience of Climate for our country to address issues like climate Impacts and Risks in Communities114 change impacts, corruption, land issues, have better medical care, better educational The people of the RMI strongly aspire to continue opportunities, and more.” People are observing living in their homelands, which is sustained by changes in their environments, including rising their access to place-based natural resources. sea levels, increasing air temperatures, and These factors are key to their sense of place and increasing drought and more erratic rainfall. security. “This is where our ancestors lived and These observations have been made in every where they’re buried. This is our home that’s atoll, and by women, men, and youth (Figure been blessed by those before us. We will die 15). These environmental changes are having here”, for example, and “my heritage is here”. widespread and significant impacts on their lives. These impacts will amplify as emissions This aspiration is threatened by climate change. increase if there is no adaptation to help avert “My aspiration is to see a future where everyone or minimize them. can work together to come up with solutions Figure 15: Most frequent community observations of climate change Sea-level rise was the main observation of communities identified this change. More communities (40%) and was reported in all women than men mentioned hotter air islands, though its relative importance varied temperatures. Drought arising from more erratic from island to island. Many people observed rainfall and hotter temperatures was mentioned that high tides were more frequent and that sea by 22% of community members. Men were much levels were higher during king tides. more likely than women to report an increase in drought and rainfall, because men are Air temperatures were also said to be hotter responsible for harvesting tree crops, gardening, than in the past, and approximately 31% of and maintaining livestock, where the effects of 114 Excerpt quotes in this section are from the My Heritage Is Here Report. 96 drought are most felt. A consequence of less time it takes for the supply of nuts to recover rain and drought reported on many islands is after droughts has increased as droughts have increasing dust. become more intense. These problems were reported in Ailinlaplap, Ailuk, Arno, Mejato, and The most frequently mentioned impact (Figures Wotho. 115 16 and 17) is on livelihoods (>33%), with more men than women reporting negative impacts “I was born and raised here. The changes I’ve since they are responsible for more of those seen from the effects of climate change are aspects of households that depend on very disturbing. The pandanus won’t even climate-sensitive natural resources. But, the be ripe yet and half of the fruit will fall out. It consequences of these impacts on livelihoods wouldn’t be harvest season yet the color of are felt more acutely by women who make the fruit changes. The wells don’t have that many handicraft goods. In many of the islands much water anymore. There’s a lot of coastal where copra is produced and sold, income erosion. We wonder why we have to go out so from production was said to be falling due to far in the ocean to fish and we hear that it’s increasing heat and salinization of soils, reducing because the heat is making the fish go into the production of coconuts, and because the deeper, cooler waters”. Figure 16: Most frequently mentioned Climate impacts Women across the RMI earn income from reported needing to travel further to collect producing and selling handcrafts (amimono). these materials. The problem of supply was In every island where this is the case, women compounded by the increasing challenge of reported that droughts and sea-level rise accessing these resources due to greater heat: also affect some of the species used to make many women said the weather was now too handicrafts, such as copra and pandanus, hot during the day for copra harvesting or shell and shells harvested from the shore. Women collection and must now be done in the evening 115 The category of ‘livelihoods’ encompasses all the activities that secure a means of living, be they from subsistence activities or the sale of goods, services, or labor. 97 (from 4 p.m. onwards), which is also when they have decreased, they face exhaustion from are expected to care for children and prepare daily chores and family commitments, and they the evening meal. The combined effect of these experience more family conflicts. These impacts changes is that fewer handicrafts are produced, are expected to increase as emissions continue some are no longer made, women’s incomes to grow. Figure 17. Most frequently mentioned impacts of climate change by gender Only 4% of community members thought demand for boats, and with rising fuel costs ocean temperatures were also rising – mostly (US$12/gallon) fishing has become more costly. fishermen and women reported associated There are also safety implications, given seas are changes such as stronger currents, coral thought to now be rougher and less predictable. bleaching, and coral and fish migration to In Jaluit and Likiep, changes in tides, sea levels, deeper or cooler waters. A similar number of and waves have made harvesting of clams people suggested changes in typhoons, though more dangerous, and it has also made travel this was reported in only a few atolls and islands to islands within the atolls to harvest clams and and was always about a past typhoon that was other resources more difficult. considered particularly bad. These changes and the reduced supply of Yet fishers in almost all atolls reported increasing plant food mean that communities rely more challenges catching fish, with falling catches on imports to meet their food needs. At the and/or increasing effort per unit so changes same time, diminished sales of copra, fish, and in the marine environment are also affecting handicrafts reduce income to purchase foods. livelihoods. The degradation of reefs, a decrease Many households struggle to buy what they in fish in nearby warmer waters, migration of need, significantly exacerbated by supply-side species to deeper and cooler waters, and less constraints associated with limited shipping and predictable fish behavior all mean fishers must markets; for example, a 20lb bag of flour is $40 go further to catch fish. This increases the in some atolls. 98 These challenges pose social and health risks. groundwater and rainwater harvesting for “There is a lot of trauma and stress [among all their water needs; most rely on reverse heads of households] caused by not being able osmosis units to meet some of their water to provide for their families. These stressors needs. Some islands had acute water security result in social issues such as domestic challenges. Wotje residents resort to drinking violence and substance abuse.” well water, which is typically used for cleaning only and for drinking only as a last resort due 116 Food security was the second most frequently to safety concerns and increasing salinization. mentioned area of impact (25% of community Salinization of groundwater was commonly members). Here, too, men more than women reported, including in Wotho, where there are report food security as a concern, again 14 wells that are increasingly contaminated by because in most households, much food is salt water due to sea-level rise and reduced supplied from the local environment, and this rainfall. is the responsibility of men. Increasing heat, decreasing and more variable rainfall, and Impacts on infrastructure: RMI’s infrastructure, increasing salinity of soils and groundwater from which already faces severe constraints and incursions of seawater are all said to be reducing challenges, is now being impacted by climate the health and yield of key food crops such as change. This includes power and water supply, bananas, breadfruit, coconuts, limes, pandanus, transport, and communications. swamp taro, tomatoes, and watermelon. In many atolls, roads, and houses are damaged In Ailuk, people report that tapioca can no longer by flooding during high tides – with water coming be grown, and in Wotho, villagers report that both over the coast and also rising from the breadfruit now ripens up to two months earlier ground, including in Ailinglaplap, Wotho, Wotje, than usual in dry years, is smaller, and rots faster Kwajalein and Majuro. Salinity and flooding after harvest. Increasing heat also means people damaged power lines, leading to several-day spend less time harvesting and planting crops electricity cuts and damaged houses and during the day and spend more on expensive, rainwater tanks (58% of households in Majuro less healthy, imported foods. Atoll get their drinking water from rainwater tanks). Typhoons cause significant damage to This also intersects with the nuclear legacy. houses, food plants, and livestock in Enewetak Many women in Enewetak are concerned about and housing, roads, seawalls, and power lines the health implications of consuming marine in Kwajalein. The docks in Ailinglaplap and Arno species, given their fears of sea-level rise causing have been progressively destroyed through greater contamination from radiation leached rust after successive high tide events, so much from the Runit dome. so that the dock in Ailinglaplap is no longer in use, and people now load and offload goods off Impacts on water security117: About 15% of the shore, which is more time-consuming. This is communities are concerned about water the same in almost all other rural communities. security. Few atoll communities rely solely on Erosion damages roads, including Ailinglaplap, 116 Food security is the reliability of access to enough nutritious food, either from subsistence activities, transfers from family and friends, or purchases. 117 The reliable supply of sufficient quantities of safe water for human consumption 99 Ebon, Likiep, Ujae, and Wotho. In many atolls, the shortages and flooding both cause schools to road being damaged is the one that leads to the close. The impacts of flooding on mobility are airport, and in Kili and Wotho, there is episodic more pronounced for people with physical and flooding of the airstrip itself. Rates of erosion are mental disabilities, who often lack support to high. For example, in Ebon, more than three feet move around when there are high tides and of coastal land has been lost in the past ten floods. Schools are at risk from erosion and years. Erosion has destroyed graves in Arno and flooding, including in Wotje and Enewetak. In Majuro, and in Majuro, erosion threatens Laura Enewetak, women in particular, are concerned Beach, one of the few places where children can about the safety of school children during swim. typhoons, given the school is close to sea level and on the northern side of the island where Flooding restricts people’s access to key typhoons do most damage. services, including walking to school in Ajeltake- Laura, Majuro, and Wotje. In Kwajalein, water Image Supplied by the Marshall Island Journal Impacts on health: Health impacts from air caused by low rainfall has increased cases climate change are driven primarily by high of eye infections. Dust also ends up in the water air temperatures and water scarcity but are tanks and contaminates drinking water that is exacerbated by extremely limited health already scarce; a lack of good drinking water services, especially in rural atolls. Community has increased cases of diarrhea (including members believe that higher temperatures and among children), especially when people try drought are impacting their health: dust in the to save water by not washing their hands; and 100 participants described higher rates of heat was reported across many atolls. Isolation is stress, with people reporting feeling dizzy and compounded by increasing tensions within weak. These problems were pronounced in Ailuk, some communities over scarce resources. In Ailinglaplap, Arno, Enewetak, Kwajalein, Wotje, Wotje, there is growing competition for seed and Wotho. stock and water resources. In Jaluit, community members are experiencing conflicts and tension In Ailinglaplap, people report increased cases of between other families and communities as fish poisoning (ciguatera). In Kwajalein, people resources become scarce, and in Ailuk, less get sick because of poor nutrition, and heat and income and a negative impact on livelihoods water scarcity led to cases of dehydration. In are causing some land disputes. Majuro, high tides create unhygienic conditions because of their effect on the sewage system; “I can see the change through the social they disperse rubbish and increase mosquitoes. climate amongst the community. It used to These events often result in outbreaks of be so peaceful and the atmosphere amongst vector-borne diseases (for example, dengue, the people was calm. Now there’s more hatred chikungunya, Zika virus) that can spread to the and social isolation in the community. They rest of the country, causing fatalities and having don’t take care of their siblings and they’re high costs to public health. arguing over land now. You can tell everything is starting to change”. Page 22 My heritage is Climate change also affects mental health here report. because it increases stress levels in people’s lives. Women are particularly vulnerable as they

4.2 Projections of Physical and are responsible for preparing food and are Environmental Impacts on increasingly expected to contribute financially Communities to households, which most do through making and selling handicrafts. Women are increasingly The scale of the impacts on communities will vary worried about the consequences of not meeting based on historical settlement patterns defined their expectations, including, in the most extreme by environmental constraints. Traditionally, cases, domestic abuse. residential and community buildings have been located on the larger atolls, some 33-55 yd (30 – “There is no time to be ignorant because, even 50 m) inland from the lagoon shoreline, landward in a small island like ours, we cannot ignore of the low lagoon-side beach berm, and well the immense changes, most of which are not above the high tide mark118. Communities will encouraging. To build resilience, we need to face threats to habitability over the next 70 years harmonize not just with nature but with each and beyond. Coastal flooding, exacerbated at other”. Page 27 My heritage is here report. higher sea levels, will continue threatening people, Impacts on social life: More women than men buildings, land, and infrastructure in the RMI report that there are the social implications of (Table 7). The combined impacts of continuous climate change, such as decreasing social sea level rise wave action and extreme sea level interactions due to heat, which is forcing people events will affect the habitability and livelihoods to spend more time inside and less time out of atoll-based communities for any sea level rise socializing and exercising. This impact of heat greater than 20” (0.5m). 118 Spennemann, 2006 101 Table 7: Type of atolls, % of the population*, and % of land. Type of Atoll Atolls/Centers # Atoll / Centers % Population % Land Area Urban Center Majuro, Ebeye 2 70.5 6.5 Intermediate Ailinglaplap, Arno, Jaluit, Wotje, 4 11.6 30.4 Center Ailuk, Aur, Ebon, Enewetak, Jabat, Kili, Kwajalein (withouh Ebeye), Lae, Lib, Likiep, Rural Atoll 18 17.9 63.1 Maloelap, Mejit, Mili, Namdrik, Namu, Ujae, Utrik, Wotho, * The % of the population is calculated based on the 2011 RMI Census and only inhabited atolls in 2021 were included. The level of vulnerability varies between the level. The accessibility to services, particularly different types of atolls and the different health, education, and transport in different communities in each atoll. Differences in the atolls, has an essential impact on the population exposure to the sea level rise are highlighted distribution, influencing their vulnerability. In in Figure 18, but other climate change impacts addition, the level of investment varies locally will affect the general exposure of the atolls/ to protect against extreme events and provide islands and their communities. In addition, for economic development opportunities. It is socio-economic drivers, such as poverty, weak lower in the more rural atolls, leading to internal economic development, and gender inequality, migration to the urban or intermediate centers. will strongly influence vulnerability at the local 102 Figure 18: Percentage of flooded area per atoll by settlement types* *Modeled using global elevation data. Uncertainty bands were estimated based on the comparison to high-resolution model results for Majuro and Ebeye The current development patterns in the RMI most densely populated island in the Pacific. (including demographics and sector demands), These communities typically have better access excluding the US Military facilities on Kwajalein, to healthcare, education, and infrastructure are generally separated into three groups: urban services, but face challenges related to rapid centers, intermediate centers, and neighboring urbanization, such as overcrowding, inadequate rural atolls. housing, and pressure on water and sanitation systems.

4.2.1 Urban Communities The urban communities of Majuro and Ebeye Majuro and Kwajalein are home to most of have essential infrastructure for public services the RMI’s population and contain the main and economic development, which are urban centers. Majuro, the capital, is the threatened by more frequent and intense country’s most populated atoll and it’s political, coastal flooding due to sea level rise (see below economic, and cultural center. Ebeye is the specifically for Majuro and Ebeye). Although 103 it is more difficult to measure and attribute to of coastal flooding risk. Waves from the northeast climate change, coastal erosion is also a critical mainly cause swell-related flooding. The urban issue in these urban communities where housing centers of Djarrit, Uliga, and (to a slightly lesser and infrastructure can be located close to the extent) Delap (D-U-D) are thus exposed to coastline. Damage to critical infrastructure, large waves with long periods. Typhoons are such as ports, harbors, and jetties, can (and will) infrequent but can cause significant damage119. continue to disrupt inter-island connectivity and Intense precipitation is a major factor in flooding fundamental lifelines for trade, food, and energy caused by typhoons, resulting in flooded areas security. otherwise unaffected by swell-related flooding. The high density of buildings and population For D-U-D and Rairok, the percentage of the in these urban communities may generate an area flooded during high tide (Mean Higher High urban heat island effect where the temperature Water, MHHW) increases rapidly from 20 in (0.5 is higher in dense neighborhoods compared to m) sea level rise onwards (Figure 19, left panel). less urbanized areas. A high-density population Beyond this level, large areas will be flooded may also increase the risk of dissemination of during each tide (especially in Djarrit and Rairok), diseases, including those influenced by climate while at Laura, tidal flooding is still limited at 3.3 change, such as respiratory illnesses and vector- ft (1 m) sea level rise. For the 6.6 ft (2 m) sea level borne or water-borne diseases. rise scenario, practically all of Majuro Atoll will permanently or regularly be inundated by tides. In Majuro Atoll, swell waves are the leading cause Figure 19: Flooding during high tide (MHHW) (left panel) and during the 1-in-10-yr swell wave event (right panel) for the urban centers Djarrit, Uliga, Delap, and Rairok, and the intermediate center Laura. 119 Spenneman 1996 104 A considerable portion of the DUD-Rairok area Flooding from swell, typhoons, and rainfall can (10-70%) already experienced more than 10 cm translate to expected average annual damages of flooding during a 1-in-10-year swell wave by considering the population and assets in event (Figure B.7 and Figure B.). This is projected hazard-prone areas. Due to the large number to increase dramatically with SLR. With a 20 in of assets in urban centers, the coastal risk is (0.5 m) sea level rise, between 70 and 80% of the higher compared to intermediate centers and DUD-Rairok area will be flooded. With a 3.3 ft (1 neighboring islands. For the DUD-Rairok area, m) sea level rise, this will increase to 90 – 95%. the expected losses resulting from flooding are Compared to urban centers like Delap, Uliga, estimated at 4.4 million USD/year on average for Djarrit, and Rairok, the intermediate center, Laura, the current situation (no sea level rise), which is relatively well protected from flooding due to corresponds to approximately 2% of the current its higher elevation and milder wave exposure annual GDP of the RMI, compared to 0.26 million (Figure 20). The flood extent is 30% for 20 in (0.5 USD/year for Laura. For the 20 in (0.5 m) sea level m) sea level rise, compared to 70 – 95% for the rise, the total expected losses are 56 million USD/ DUD-Rairok area (Figure B.7). For 3.3 and 6.6 ft year on average for DUD-Rairok and 1.4 million (1 and 2 m) sea level rise, however, the flood USD/year for Laura. For the 3.3 ft (1 m) sea level extent in Laura rapidly increases to 88 and 99%, rise, the expected average losses increase respectively. exponentially to 206 million USD/year for DUD- Rairok and 12.1 million USD/year for Laura (Majuro CVA). Figure 20: Illustration of flooding scenarios for the Delap, Djarrit, and Laura communities in Majuro, showing regions affected by groundwater flooding, high tide flooding and flooding during a storm event for different sea level rise scenarios. 105 In Ebeye, as in Majuro, coastal flooding is caused The portion of people affected increases with by large swell events and infrequent typhoons. sea level rise, from 67% for the present situation During the 1-in-10-year storm, more than two- to 98% for 31 in (0.78 m) sea level rise, reflecting thirds of the island (69%, Table B2) can be flooded. the trend in flooded areas. The main source of Flooding frequency and extent will increase with direct damage is damage to houses and the sea level rise. With 20 in (0.5 m) sea level rise, the Ebeye causeway. Estimated total damages may island will experience frequent flooding during increase by a factor 3 to 4 due to sea level rise, high tide. For a simulated storm event, 89% of from 4.5 million USD/yr for the current scenario the island will be flooded with 21 in (0.53 m) sea to 16 million USD/yr for 31 in (0.78 m) sea level rise level rise, up to 96 and 99% for the 3.3 and 6.6 ft (Table 8). (1 and 2 m) sea level rise scenarios, respectively. Table 8: Overview of the flooded areas, people affected, and EAD for Ebeye, for the 1-in-10-yr swell event. SLR=0.5 m SLR=1.0 m SLR=2.0m (approx. 1.5 ft) (approx. 3 ft) (approx. 6 ft) SSP1-2.6: 2090 [2070-2130] >2150 [2120->2150] >2150 Sustainability SSP1-2.6 Low-Confidence: Sustainability including low 2090 [2060-2130] 2100 [2080-2150] >2150 [2130->2150] likeihood, high-impact ice sheet processes SSP2-4.5: 2080 [2070-2100] 2140 [2110->2150] >2150 Middle of the road SSP5-8.5: 2070 [2060-2080] 2110 [2090-2140] >2150 [2140->2150] Fossil-fuel development SSP5-8.5 Low-Confidence: Fossil- fuel development including low 2070 [2050-2080] 2100 [2070-2140] 2140 [2100->2150] likelihood, high-impact ice sheet processes Results up to 0.78 m sea level rise are based on the Ebeye CVA study, while flooded areas for 3.3 and 6.6 ft (1 and 2 m) are from the Atoll Study. The 10.2, 21, and 31 in (0.26, 0.53, and 0.78 m) sea level rise values were based on Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for time horizons of 2050 and 2100 (source: Deltares 2022c).

4.2.2. Semi-Urban Communities engaging in subsistence activities like fishing and agriculture and participating in the cash Semi-urban communities in the RMI are usually economy through employment or small located on larger atolls or close to the main businesses. urban centers, such as Majuro or Ebeye. The lifestyle in semi-urban communities is often a Intermediate centers, such as Ailinglaplap, mix of traditional and modern, with residents Arno, Jaluit, and Wotje, have a lower population 106 density than the urban centers but include such as sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, and important infrastructure such as government extreme weather events, which can threaten buildings, high schools, and jetties. They are their livelihoods and overall resilience. expected to continue to develop in the future, On most neighboring atolls and islands, the accommodating more people from either the development pattern is still largely influenced urban atolls or the rural atolls. Intermediate by continued low population densities due to centers will increasingly experience sustained the significant out-migration to the main urban groundwater flooding or frequent flooding centers or overseas. However, where there are during high tide, potentially rendering these higher population pressures or less adherence areas uninhabitable or unsuitable for agriculture. to traditional approaches to locating residential In addition, saltwater intrusion may inhibit and other buildings has occurred over the last agriculture and require more costly measures half-century, development exposure to coastal for drinking water supply, such as import and inundation and shoreline change has increased. desalinization, if the demand cannot be covered The traditional division of land has also had an through rainwater capture. important role in the development pattern of Infrastructure and population in these semi- these rural atolls, with the traditional land unit, urban communities are threatened by climate called “weto” extending in strips running from change impacts (sea level rise related erosion the ocean to the lagoon side, ensuring that and inundation) like the infrastructure and each household has an appropriate location population in the urban communities. However, across the island for residential structures and due to lower population density, the urban heat also provide access for each household to the island effect and disease spreading is expected different environmental zones on the island. to be less significant. We need to ensure the The issues facing these rural neighboring atoll development of these intermediate centers communities mostly relate to food and water considers climate change and disaster risks to security. More frequent and intense coastal ensure they are sustainable and are planned to flooding will lead to salinization of the groundwater limit the generation of new/additional risks. reserve and the soil, limiting the yield of crops,

4.2.3 Rural and Outer Atoll an impact already observed in low areas on Communities Likiep. In addition, changes in the rainfall patterns may also affect agriculture yields, particularly in The outer atolls are more remote and have the northern atolls already prone to drought. smaller populations, often in rural or semi- Changes in the ocean, in particular ocean rural settings. These communities rely more on warming and ocean acidification, are projected traditional subsistence lifestyles, including fishing to impact fish and other marine organism and agriculture. They generally have more distribution, affecting coastal fisheries, which is limited access to services and infrastructure, essential for food supply and income generation. which can result in lower levels of education, Both expected reduction of food supply from healthcare, and economic opportunities. agriculture and fisheries in the neighboring atolls Due to their isolation and lower population are expected to make community members densities, these communities may also be more more dependent on imported food, with health vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and financial consequences for the households 107 and increased solid waste management issues. minimizing exposure to all but the most extreme typhoon wave-related inundation events. The key issue for the rural neighboring atolls However, the efficiency of such measures is the likelihood of the atolls becoming decreases with sea level rise and is thus uninhabitable due to more frequent and temporary. When sea level rises, relocation to intense flooding, damaging infrastructure and other, protected atolls is projected to be one impacting the groundwater aquifer. A vegetated potential adaptation measure available, and buffer between the lagoon shoreline and the consequences of this measure in terms of residential or other structures may reduce the loss of land, loss of livelihood, and community will impacts of coastal flooding on infrastructure need to be addressed. and buildings, and this tends to be the most ‘optimum’ position for development in terms of Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific The challenge facing planning adaptation highly uncertain due to the low resolution and measures for neighboring atolls relates to the accuracy of the global elevation data. lack of accurate data on island topography to

4.3 Vulnerabilities of Key Economic help predict key flooding areas and develop specific flood maps for individual neighboring and Social Sectors atolls. Projections of future coastal flooding Sector vulnerabilities relate to how well a vary for the different islands, depending on particular sector can address climate change’s local factors such as land elevation and wave impacts in their relevant area. Vulnerabilities exposure. For example, there are islands with may relate to governance, policy direction, lower projections of flooding (e.g., Aur, Maloelap, data/information, financial or physical. Ujae, Wotje, Figure B.6), but it is noted that this is 108

4.3.1 Vulnerabilities of the Works, complicates the provision of consistent services. Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transporting essentials to distant atolls is a Transportation Services and logistic and economic challenge, sometimes Communications Sectors pricing these services out of reach for remote residents. The RMI faces significant challenges in sectors reliant on physical infrastructure: utilities, energy, Tangible Impacts of Climate Change: transportation, and telecommunications (Tables Projected increases in sea levels foreshadow 9-12). The very nature and distribution of these more frequent coastal erosion and flooding. infrastructures amplify their susceptibility. Key infrastructure components, including ports, Common vulnerabilities are: roads, and buildings, are directly in harm’s way. Such eventualities risk making roads Legislative Concerns of Land Tenure and impassable and can also sever community Ownership: RMI’s unique land tenure system often links to essential services. Furthermore, rising limits infrastructure development. A case in point groundwater threatens foundational structures, is the road to Majuro airport, rerouted around potentially leading to more rapid deterioration private property when the owner didn’t grant and contaminating water sources. access. This occasionally forces infrastructure into less optimal locations, like areas closer to The RMI is no stranger to the ravages of tropical coastlines, exposing them to greater climate cyclones. If projections hold true, the archipelago risks. The predominance of privately owned land will see a surge in the frequency and intensity housing public infrastructure poses additional of these destructive events. The repercussions challenges. Disagreements over lease terms span from direct infrastructure damage to can jeopardize the continued operation and prolonged service disruptions, especially in accessibility of vital infrastructure. transport, severely affecting island connectivity and access to essential services. Environmental Factors: The inherent low elevation of the RMI’s atolls poses a two-fold Oceans becoming more acidic can erode threat. Firstly, most infrastructure finds itself in coastal structures. From seawalls to ports, coastal areas, at direct risk from severe weather increased maintenance and repair are on the events and rising sea levels. Secondly, spatial horizon. Additionally, the corrosive effects of constraints have led to logistical challenges, acidic waters can compromise the longevity such as smaller aircraft being the only feasible and integrity of concrete structures, requiring mode of air transport due to runway lengths. In more frequent replacements. urban centers limited land availability sometimes pushes vital facilities closer to the coastlines, With global temperatures on an upward trend, heightening their vulnerability. the RMI faces multiple challenges. Elevated temperatures can speed up wear and tear on Economic Implications: The onus of infrastructure, from roads to buildings. Moreover, infrastructure maintenance for outer atolls utility systems, especially electricity and water typically falls on local governments. Given their supplies, might buckle under the strain of limited financial resources, they often grapple extreme heat, rendering them unreliable. Such with developing and maintaining quality conditions also raise health and safety concerns infrastructure. This underfunding results in for workers, necessitating more frequent breaks facilities that are more susceptible to damage and prolonging construction or repair schedules. and decay. The RMI’s dispersed geography 109 110 Table 9: Specific Transportation Sector Vulnerabilities Sector / Hotter temperatures Rising sea levels (high Increased tropical Changing rainfall Ocean changes Other (sector specific) Hazard (hot days, tide‘sunny day’ flooding, cyclones (increased patterns (drought, (sea surface heat waves) rising groundwater level) frequency, intensity, extreme rainfall temperature, more larger waves, intensity) dissolved oxygen, and higher storm acidification) surges) Air The existing RMI airports are low The increased Changes in The changing climate Transport airport facilities lying and vulnerable frequency and weather patterns, change will impact and operations to rising sea levels with intensity of including shifts in airport facilities, are vulnerable to an increasing risk of extreme weather wind patterns and infrastructure and increasing hot days coastal erosion of airport events such as rainfall variability are operations across the and heatwaves lands, coastal flooding tropical storms or expected to affect multiple sectors that as they are largely of airport facilities, and cyclones will lead to the air transport rely on air transport. open-air or cooled with airport access greater disruption sector. Such This includes only by natural routes and supporting to air travel, changes can affect passenger air travel ventilation and fans. infrastructure (e.g., roads, damage airport flight operations, for tourism and social The increasing energy, water supply) infrastructure, particularly for small connectivity, the number of hot days also vulnerable to sea- and pose risks aircraft and inter- economic sectors and heat waves will level rise. The effects of to aircraft and island domestic which rely on air affect comfort of SLR will be felt as both a passengers. Severe flights. transport (e.g. tourism, terminal staff and chronic threat (gradual weather conditions The airstrips in fisheries, importing users, may affect decline in service) and can lead to flight RMI are unsealed, critical components the safety (e.g., via acute extreme events cancellations, except for Majuro for infrastructure/ dehydration, fatigue) such as extreme storms. delays, and and Kwajalein, and facilities), of ground staff For Majuro, this has a potential damage are generally in a humanitarian personnel, the cross-sector impact to aircraft. poor state. These development and with a reduction in the Alterations in wind often consist of only aid, health and reliability of ground potential freshwater patterns may grass, coral, or gravel emergency transport, support equipment, collection from require adjustments surfaces, which government, and accelerate the groundwater infiltration, in flight routes results in additional diplomatic transport. deterioration of with the runway acting and landing maintenance after infrastructure (e.g., as a significant source approaches, heavy rain events. asphalt runway), of freshwater runoff impacting the and place additional capture efficiency and stress on supporting safety of air infrastructure services transport. (e.g., power supply, water, and sanitation). Sea The erosion of shorelines The increased Rainfall variability One of the key Transport and inundation frequency and is expected to restrictions resulting from sea level intensity of extreme affect the sea highlighted by MTCIT rise can undermine weather events transport sector, that will impact foundations, cause such as tropical with increased the RMI response structural damage, and storms or cyclones levels of flooding to climate change render infrastructure will lead to greater within the port is that due to the associated with the Ports disruption to sea as well as the isolation from other unusable. This can hinder transport, as well surrounding countries, the majority transportation, trade, and as damage port transport of items coming into economic development, infrastructure. network (roads) RMI must go through making it challenging These severe upon which the the Port. to provide essential weather conditions ports rely on However, there services to the outer atoll can lead to sailing to move their is limited space communities. cancellations, goods in Ebeye and capacity for delays, and and Majuro. unloading, particularly potential damage due to the lack of to vessels. Further cranes at the Delap isolating the outer international port. communities in RMI. There is currently no plans by MTCIT or the RMI Ports Authority to increase the capacity at these chokepoints. This is further exacerbated by impacts from climate change when the roads to and from the port are flooded due to inundation. The port is also vulnerable to power outages, which affects operations. 111 112 Land Hotter temperatures As sea levels rise, coastal Increased Climate change can transport can cause roads to areas where roads frequency and alter rainfall patterns, soften and expand, and transportation intensity of extreme leading to changes which can lead infrastructure are often weather events: in water availability to potholes and located are at risk of These events can and the potential other damage. This flooding and coastal cause significant for increased rainfall can make roads erosion. This can damage to roads, intensity. Heavy more dangerous damage or render roads bridges, and other rainfall events can to drive on and impassable, hindering transportation result in flooding, can also increase transportation, trade, and infrastructure, which can damage maintenance costs. economic development, resulting in road pavements, making it challenging to disruptions to bridges, and respond to emergencies, transportation culverts, making and isolate communities services. Landslides them impassable. In from essential services and flash floods contrast, droughts like hospitals, schools, can also occur, can lead to soil and markets. further hindering instability and The coastal roads in road accessibility. the weakening of RMI are particularly road foundations, vulnerable to these increasing the risk of impacts. road damage Table 10: Specific Telecommunications and Energy Sector Vulnerabilities Sector / Hazard Hotter Rising sea Increased tropical Changing Ocean Other (sector pecific) temperatures levels (high cyclones (increased rainfall changes (hot days,heat tide ‘sunny day’ frequency, intensity, patterns (sea surface waves) flooding, rising more larger waves, (drought, temperature, groundwater and higher storm extreme dissolved level) surges) rainfall oxygen, intensity) acidification) Telecommunications Increased RMI are low-lying Increased frequency Telecommunication temperatures atolls, making and intensity of extreme networks rely on a stable can require them susceptible weather events: RMI and continuous supply additional to sea level rise. are exposed to tropical of electricity to operate. maintenance As sea levels rise, storms, cyclones, and Power outages caused and cooling of coastal areas where other extreme weather by climate-related the equipment telecommunications events. These events can result in Telecommunications that is relied infrastructure is often events can cause service interruptions and Cont. upon in RMI to located are at risk of physical damage to impact the functionality communicate. flooding and coastal telecommunication of telecommunications Any disruptions erosion. This can infrastructure, such as networks, particularly can have damage or disrupt downed power lines, where this is an significant the operation of damaged antennas, important means of consequences, critical infrastructure, and structural damage communication in the particularly including to communication extreme climate or to critical submarine cables, towers. These emergency events. communication communication disruptions can lead to Increased maintenance lines, such as towers, and service outages and and repair costs: those used by equipment shelters. affect the reliability Climate change-related emergency and availability of impacts, such as storms, services. communication flooding, and high services. humidity, can accelerate the wear and tear of telecommunication infrastructure. This can lead to increased maintenance and repair costs for the sector. Energy As temperatures Increased tropical The switch to a focus rise, people will cyclones can potentially on renewable energy need to use disrupt the supply may reduce some more energy chain and increase vulnerabilities to the for cooling. This the costs of importing impacts of climate will put a strain diesel (e.g., through change, particularly the on the energy changing weather individually powered grid, which patterns and conditions homes. However, will increase that affect maritime lower- income houses, the number transportation). particularly those in of blackouts the outer atolls, are already likely to be considered impacting unsuitable for solar Majuro, as an installation due to example. being in poor structural condition. Therefore, the most vulnerable parts of our community may remain vulnerable to power outages as a result of increasing climatic events in the future. 113 114 Table 11: Specific Water and Sanitation Sector Vulnerabilities Sector / Hotter temperatures (hot Rising sea levels Increased tropical Changing rainfall Ocean changes Hazard days, heat waves) (high tide‘sunny day’ cyclones (increased patterns (sea surface flooding, rising frequency, intensity, (drought, extreme temperature, groundwater level) more larger waves, rainfall dissolved and higher storm intensity) oxygen, surges) acidification) Water Hotter temperatures can lead Sea level rise can Extreme storms and Some areas may With increased resources to increased evaporation lead to the infiltration heavy rainfall events can experience increased acidification rates, which can reduce water of saltwater into the cause flooding and may rainfall intensity, comes increased availability in aquifers. This can be groundwater freshwater carry pollutants, such leading to challenges contamination particularly problematic in areas lenses. This intrusion as chemicals, sewage, in capturing and when combined that are already water- stressed, can contaminate the and debris, into the managing the with the other such as the outer atolls. freshwater supplies, groundwater, rendering excess water. Other hazards, like sea Warmer temperatures can also making them unsuitable it unsafe for use without regions may face level rise and lead to decreased water quality for consumption and proper treatment. reduced rainfall, tropical cyclones, due to less dissolved oxygen, irrigation, requiring Heavy rainfall may resulting in water which will increase which is essential for aquatic life. treatment to remove the overwhelm individual scarcity (droughts) the likelihood of salt content. rainwater harvesting and the continued inundation. Warmer water provides a more systems, reducing the need for alternative favorable environment for the percentage of the rainfall water sources will be growth of algae and other that can be effectively required. microorganisms, resulting in contamination and increased collected. risks to health from more prevalent water-and vector- borne diseases. Wastewater Higher temperatures can The existing The outfalls of the saltwater Extreme weather The wastewater increase the growth of bacteria infrastructure in Majuro reticulated systems have events resulting systems on in wastewater, which can make and Ebeye already been damaged in the in heavy rainfall Majuro and Ebeye it more difficult to treat. This has occurrences of past because of extreme can inundate the are reticulated can increase the risk in RMI of saltwater intrusion; this storms. This vulnerability will wastewater network, saltwater prevalent water-and vector- occurrence will increase continue as the presence including poorly wastewater borne diseases, particularly in frequency, duration, of extreme storms will maintained septic systems. As ocean where there are discharges and intensity, because continue with expected tanks or pits where acidification of raw sewage into the ocean of sea level rise. changes to the frequency this is poor drainage increases then off the coastline of Majuro due and intensity. High winds, and damage to the there will be to degraded outfall pipes and storm surges, and heavy tanks. accelerated infrastructure. rainfall associated with This poses health and deterioration. This these extreme weather environmental risks will increase Wastewater events can result in pipe due to the release of maintenance and breaks, leaks, or even untreated sewage running costs. Cont. complete destruction of into the surrounding the infrastructure. environment. This damage can disrupt Conversely, droughts the saltwater reticulation will limit the ability of system, leading to water the Ebeye wastewater shortages and difficulties system to be able to in providing a consistent draw water from the supply of water to the wells to pump and population. flush out the system. Solid Waste Increased temperatures can Both of the landfill Due to the low lying nature More frequent lead to accelerated waste sites used on Ebeye of the existing landfills in extreme rainfall decomposition, higher emissions and Majuro are at risk Majuro and Ebeye, there events increase of volatile organic compounds of inundation from is already a significant the amount of and increased odor generation. sea level rise and risk of waste material leachate that will be Higher temperatures could also extreme storms. This being washed into the discharged from the increase the corrosion rates would result in the surrounding coastal waters. unlined landfills in RMI. of machinery by accelerating potential contamination This can lead to severe This will further add chemical reactions and of the surrounding pollution and risks to to the contaminants increasing the evaporation environment through human health. The increase leaching into the rate of moisture and therefore the release of waste of tropical cyclones will coastal waters the concentration of corrosive materials and only exacerbate this issue. around RMI. Further substances. Landfill fires are a contaminants through The same applies for impacting human serious problem, and they can leachate. outer atolls where waste is health and freshwater be exacerbated by increased stored/disposed near the sources. temperatures. Due to the lack coastline. of separation of hazardous substances from the landfills in RMI, there are increased 115 116 Table 12: Specific Coastal Protection Sector Vulnerabilities Sector / Hotter Rising sea levels (high Increased Changing rainfall Ocean Other (sector Hazard temperatures tide ‘sunny day’ flooding, tropical cyclones patterns (drought, changes specific) (hot days, rising groundwater level) (increased extreme rainfall (sea surface heat waves) frequency, intensity) temperature, intensity, more dissolved larger waves, oxygen, and higher storm acidification) surges) Coastal Warmer Sea level rise exacerbates Extreme storms, Flooding from extreme Increased levels Impact on Protection temperatures coastal erosion and including tropical events can create of acidification biodiversity and can lead to increases the risk of cyclones, can additional ponding can lead to ecosystems: Coastal increased inundation. Higher sea levels cause severe where seawalls have corrosion of the protection measures corrosion of the result in more frequent and damage to coastal been constructed as materials used can disrupt natural materials used severe erosion of beaches, infrastructure, they are often higher to construct coastal ecosystems to construct shorelines, and protective such as seawalls, than the adjoining seawalls, such and habitats. seawalls, as dunes. Extreme storms breakwaters, and low- lying land (as as concrete These structures well as increase and changing weather revetments. When they act to stop wave and steel. This can impede the expansion and patterns can further combined with run-up and events). can weaken movement of contraction intensify erosion and lead rising sea levels, This means they can the seawalls sediment, alter processes. This to the loss of land in places increased storm act as a barrier for and make them wave patterns, and can weaken that were not previously surge heights pose stormwater runoff, more likely to fail. impact marine seawalls and exposed, undermining the greater challenges which exacerbates and terrestrial make them effectiveness of coastal to the structural and prolongs the biodiversity. more likely to fail. protection measures. The integrity of these impacts felt on the Changes in water RMI lacks natural barriers to coastal protection adjoining properties temperature, salinity, climate hazards due to the structures. that the seawalls were and other factors low- lying nature. established to protect. associated with climate change can further affect the health and resilience of coastal ecosystems. Image Supplied by the Marshall Islands Journal

4.3.2 Vulnerabilities of the Healthcare increasing the risk of food and waterborne and Social Services Sectors illnesses. As flooding becomes frequent, it affects agricultural output, particularly coastal The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) faces crops. The RMI’s dependence on imported foods pronounced vulnerabilities in its healthcare and is heightened, risking the nutritional intake of its social services due to the impacts of climate residents. Given the high prevalence of diseases, change. These vulnerabilities pose a significant such as diabetes and tuberculosis in Micronesian threat, from damaging vital facilities to straining nations, any additional health challenges could the healthcare system, curtailing access to overwhelm the system. social services, and introducing new climate- induced health challenges. Furthermore, as global temperatures rise, health challenges intensify. Human bodies face Climate Influence on Diseases: Island nations, extreme stress when exposed to temperatures particularly those in the Pacific, are exceptionally above 35°C. Continued exposure can lead to vulnerable to health repercussions resulting severe health complications or even death. from climate change. Droughts in the region, With temperatures climbing, there’s a growing which intensify water shortages, act as breeding risk of heat-related ailments120. The elderly, grounds for diseases like dengue fever, Zika virus, children, and those with chronic conditions face and cholera. heightened risk. Without adequate interventions, the next decades could see an alarming rise in Storms and flooding have an immediate impact, 120 Singh, R. B., Hales, S., De Wet, N., Raj, R., Hearnden, M., & Weinstein, P. (2001). The influence of climate variation and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific islands. Environmental health perspectives, 109(2), 155–159. URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ pmc/articles/PMC1240636/ 117 heat-related deaths in places like the Marshall Geographic Spread: The dispersion of islands Islands. adds logistical challenges to healthcare administration and service delivery. Infectious Diseases and Climate Sensitivity: The correlation between climate change Coastal Living: Most people live near the coast, and the spread of infectious diseases is making them immediate victims of climate becoming undeniable. Temperature fluctuations, adversities. precipitation variations, and humidity changes directly influence disease vectors and their Island Ecosystems: Overuse and contamination transmission rates. risks threaten the already fragile freshwater resources. Although socioeconomic advancements have curtailed several infectious diseases, these gains Human Resources: An ongoing concern is the risk reversal with the changing climate conditions. region’s lack of adequately trained healthcare The 2016 RMI Environment Report underscored professionals. this, spotlighting the looming dangers of climate- Health Infrastructure Challenges: Many health related health issues. Rising sea temperatures facilities, particularly those located near the present a new set of challenges, from increased coasts, risk damage from extreme weather cases of diarrhea121 and dengue fever to quicker events. This puts a strain on healthcare food spoilage rates, escalating the risks of food 122 accessibility . Access challenges are manifold - poisoning. from high travel costs to infrequent transportation General Vulnerabilities: Underlying the specific options and the reliability of ports123. Climate- threats from climate change are several general induced migration also disrupts established vulnerabilities that compound the healthcare healthcare dynamics124. Urban centers become challenges in the RMI: overburdened while remote clinics grapple with relevancy and staffing issues. Existing health Urbanization: With a significant portion of the issues like cancer, diabetes125, and tuberculosis population residing in urban hubs, the risk of will likely worsen with the climate shift. This will rapid disease spread, sanitation issues, and require curative and preventive measures to healthcare access disparity grows. ensure a healthy populace in the future. Poverty: Economic constraints hinder individuals from seeking timely medical attention or accessing preventive care. 121 Bentham, G., & Langford, I. H. (2001). Environmental temperatures and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales. International journal of biometeorology, 45(1), 22–26. URL: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11411411/ 122 Taylor, 2021 123 McCue, 2021 124 Van Der Geest, Burkett, Fitzpatrick, Stege and Wheeler, 2019 125 Dain, K., & Hadley, L. (2012). Diabetes and climate change—Two interconnected global challenges. Diabetes research and clinical practice, 97(2), 337–339. URL: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22890699/ 118 Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific

4.3.3 Vulnerabilities of the Education, Such a move may contribute to further out Skills, and Training Sectors migration from small atolls and islands. Despite goals to maintain enrollment The PSS struggles to provide consistent numbers, enrollments continue to decline at education and instructional support across the all levels, attributed to migration to the US. RMI. Heavy reliance on skilled teachers to service Such outmigration will likely continue to affect less populated atolls is a high vulnerability, education services on the outer islands and in as migration statistics indicate decreasing key population centers as students and their populations in the outer atolls. Available figures families migrate. The continued migration show that RMI has not achieved universal of people from the outer islands to the core areas will also cause population pressures enrollment in primary education (UNICEF, 2017). on school rolls in these centers and student The PSS aims to reduce the number of school accommodation. It puts financial pressures dropouts by 25%, partly by ensuring there is on households (and extended social support reliable sea and air transportation to get students networks) forced to migrate. Where children and to atolls with high schools and the provision teenagers have to move for education on their of dormitories for outer island students. Such own, there is potential for increased vulnerability initiatives will need to account for the impacts of when separated from family support, particularly climate change. This will be particularly important for young women. given the PSS goal to transfer all Grade 7-8 Education policies may also impact negatively students in primary schools with fewer than 50 on younger children in the family. Marshallese students to the nearest larger school, reducing men and women often migrate for education the number of small public primary schools. and training, and this diaspora means that a significant proportion of children and young people do not live with their biological parents, 119 causing stress for the younger children and their cooling systems, and adequate water supply families. Some 11% aged 0-4 years have one or to withstand droughts. PSS will need to working both parents living overseas. For 7% of these with communities, local government, and children, their father is overseas, leaving their central government to protect key schools from mothers to meet the daily demands of parenting erosion, flood and inundation and to ensure with support from the extended family. schools have adequate water supply for drinking and proper sanitation, accompanied by health Unfortunately, up-to-date data on the impact education and hygiene training in the curriculum. of natural disasters on school infrastructure A strategy is needed to address population and children attending schools during natural change and provision of education in remote disasters is unavailable (UNICEF, 2017). Climate islands where populations may dwindle due to change is likely to impact many school facilities climate change. significantly and will need to be addressed to increase the resilience of school facilities to climate and disaster risks. This includes physical infrastructure resilience, and the students and teachers within these facilities. Key climate change impacts include: Droughts and poor access to drinking water could affect students’ health and may influence attendance and school closures. Additional concerns include flooding and inundation of school facilities;coastal erosion and loss of land impact on physical infrastructure more generally (jetties and wharves); spreading of communicable diseases, including vector-borne diseases; extreme high temperatures could affect the health of students and their ability to learn, and hence, may influence attendance, especially as the ability to regulate temperatures in schools is limited; extreme weather events affect transportation, making children unable to access schools; Policies: No specific climate change policies are currently established within the education sector. Within the TTEC Working Group, PSS represents education and is a cross-cutting issue across sectors. Future policies would need to address the construction of new or replacement school infrastructure facilities. When school facilities are being developed, they need to account for climate change,e.g. through elevated structures, 120 Image Supplied by the Marshall Islands Journal

4.3.4 Vulnerabilities of the Fisheries affecting traditional fishing practices and local Sector fishing economies. Warmer water temperatures can also increase the risk of coral bleaching Due to the importance of the fisheries sector in events, damaging coral reefs and associated the RMI, the impacts of a changing climate could fish habitats. be significant to the livelihoods and subsistence of the Marshallese. These impacts are likely to result in tuna species caught by purse-seine fishing (skipjack, yellowfin, Commercial Oceanic Fisheries: Generally, and bigeye tuna), which RMI is so dependent changes in rainfall patterns associated with on, migrating in an easterly direction into the ENSO and the ITCZ can affect coastal water high seas out of the existing EEZs. Simulations to salinity and nutrient levels, influencing the consider the potential future distribution of tuna productivity and distribution of fish and other as a result of changing environmental variables marine species by disrupting spawning seasons have identified that by 2050, under a high and migration patterns, affecting fishing greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), activities and the long-term sustainability of the total biomass of the three tuna species in the fish stocks. In addition, extreme storm events combined jurisdictions of the 10 PNA EEZs would that bring heavy rainfall and subsequent runoff decrease by a total of approximately 12%, with from the surrounding land can also lead to an average of 13%. Specifically, for the RMI, under water pollution and habitat degradation, further this scenario, the average expected change to impacting fisheries. In contrast, changes in sea the biomass in yellowfin tuna is a reduction of and land temperatures can lead to shifts in 10%, a reduction in bigeye tuna of 2%, and a slight the distribution and abundance of fish species. 1% increase in skipjack tuna of 1%126. Some fish species may migrate to cooler waters, 126 Bell et al. 2021 121 Overall, the average total change in biomass In addition to the direct climate change impacts is projected to decrease by 19,261 tons, from on the distribution of fish species, the fisheries 437,919 tons in 2020 to 418,658 tons by 2050. sector faces vulnerabilities such as the potential However, under the same scenario, the loss of Majuro as a key transshipment port due maximum change predicted could be as high to sea level rise and increased likelihood of road as a reduction of 10% in total, reducing the inundation. Several factors will influence Majuro’s total biomass by 43,738 tons. The estimated continued role as a vital port in the Pacific, with changes in purse-seine catch under RCP 8.5 decision-making being a fluid process. Key could reduce total annual fishing access fees drivers include the eastward movement of fish for the RMI, projected to be approximately stocks under climate change, which may reduce $200,000 but as high as $2.7 million. It is noted visits to Majuro; the need to maintain safe and that under a lower-emissions scenario (RCP protected anchorage areas, something Majuro 4.5), the projected impacts are expected to currently provides; the accessibility to essential be less severe, with some SIDS benefiting from amenities and facilities near the wharf; the an increase in tuna species caught. This is necessity to maintain and possibly increase the case for the RMI, where the distribution of wharf-side access and capacity in the face tuna species in an easterly direction will initially of climate change; and cost considerations, help the RMI, as they are located further east which could be affected by increased climate- than some of the other Pacific SIDS. But as the related maintenance costs127. These aspects climate changes, the tuna species will continue collectively determine Majuro’s attractiveness to move further east out of the RMI EEZ, too, as a transshipment location and are subject so the potential benefits will be temporary. to change due to climate change and other Critically, the sustainability of tuna catches variables. could be at greater risk because the monitoring, control, and surveillance required to combat Coastal Fisheries: Models for the tropical illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing Western Pacific indicate that sea surface and impose penalties for non-compliance temperature will rise by ≥ 3 °C, surface dissolved are more complex in high-seas areas where oxygen will decline by ≥ 0.01 ml L−1, pH will drop by tuna are expected to migrate. This is because ≥ 0.3, and net primary productivity will decrease responsibility for compliance with fishing by 0.5 g m−2 d−1 across much of the region by regulations on the high seas rests with the 2100 under the business-as-usual scenario. states that ‘flag’ fishing vessels (often resulting These changes were associated with rates in self-regulation), whereas compliance within of local species extinction of > 50% in many EEZs is under the control of coastal states. With regions as fishes and invertebrates decreased changes to the distribution of tuna into the in abundance or migrated to regions with high seas, the onus will be on the Western & conditions more suitable to their bio-climate Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) to envelope. Maximum potential catch is projected implement tighter controls on fishing for tropical to decrease by > 50% across many areas, with tuna species by all vessels operating in high- the largest impacts in the western Pacific warm seas areas of the Western and Central Pacific pool. Climate change scenarios that included Ocean (WCPO). strong mitigation resulted in substantial 127 Blaha, 2019 122 reductions of Maximum potential catch losses, greater than 18% by 2050 are expected under a with the area where Maximum potential catch high emissions scenario, with most being over losses exceeded 50% reduced from 74.4% of the 50% under this climate scenario. Even for a low region under business-as-usual to 36.0% of the emissions scenario, the average decline in PICs 128 region under the strong mitigation scenario . will be 28.5%. For the RMI, the best-case scenario predicted is a decline of 40% of the coastal catch Based on the current (baseline) catch levels, and 75% in the worst-case scenario, as shown in the projected impact on the volume of coastal Table 13 below. fisheries caught could fall for 13 of the 14 PIC under almost all climate change scenarios. Declines Table 13: Estimated change in the Maximum Catch Potential (MCP) for RMI under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) for 2030 and a low (SSP2-4.6) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) for 2050. CHANGE IN MCP (%) Pacific Species Catch SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.6 SSP5-8.5 Island category comp. 2023 2050 2050 Country MCP Range Median MCP Range Median MCP change change change RMI Demersal 0.712 -60 to - -40.0 -28.5 -90 to- -75.0 -53.4 20 60 Nearshore 0.288 -60 to -35.0 -10.1 -90 to- -70.0 -20.2 pelagic - 10 50 Overall -44.9 -38.6 -73.6 In addition to direct impacts on fish abundance, caught and sold at local markets or consumed coastal habitats around atolls, including coral for subsistence by the Marshallese living on the reefs and seagrass habitat, are likely to be outer atolls. impacted by climate change. This will increase the vulnerability of the coastal fisheries relied 4.3.5 Vulnerabilities of the Culture and upon by those communities. Ocean acidification Internal Affairs Sector from a changing climate can hinder the growth Gender: Marshallese climate change policies and development of shell-forming organisms, acknowledge that climate change affects such as oysters, clams, and coral reefs129. men and women differently, making efforts Impacts on these important coastal habitats to integrate gender and human rights around the atolls in the RMI will further change considerations into adaptation and mitigation the species type and abundance, which plans. Women in the RMI suffer disproportionately increases the vulnerability of the coastal fisheries from climate change owing to existing sector. This will likely reduce the number of fish societal roles, responsibilities, and inequalities. 128 Ash et al., 2018 129 Ash et al., 2018 123 This disadvantage is exacerbated by their outer islands and beginning to form chapters responsibilities in families, such as domestic food outside the RMI, WUTMI implements programs and water provision and childcare, combined strengthening parenting skills, addressing with limited access to resources like health, substance misuse, establishing support services education, and public office. for gender violence survivors, and increasing awareness of gender in climate and disaster risk The impact on women is especially pronounced management. in the outer atolls, where women’s roles in Gender and human rights in relation to climate making handicrafts and maintaining domestic change activity is a complex and singular issue duties are vital for family income and well-being. – given the fundamental desirability to bring Climate change risks and disasters expose women’s voice, alongside that of men, to the them to economic hardship, unemployment, critical climate change decision-making over health issues, gender-based violence, limited the next few years and into the future. Major access to justice, and increased poverty and cultural and existential decisions will be required marginalization. in the short term to identify a practicable adaptation pathway, and in the intermediate Gender, though not a ‘sector’ traditionally, is and longer term to prepare for and implement addressed through institutions and mechanisms it. Considerations need to be mindful of original like the TTEC and CCD. These entities ensure all traditions and customs. sectors are gender responsive and inclusive, promoting gender equality by confronting From a once cooperative and complementary norms, roles, and inequalities in various areas. The role in decision-making, women’s voice and intersectional approach recognizes overlapping influence has diminished dramatically from forms of discrimination based on factors like pre-colonial times. Their historical influence as class, sex, age, or disability. Women Uniting peacemaker, consensus builder and finisher Together Marshal Islands (WUTMI) is a leading was never more needed than now to be part non-governmental organization promoting of addressing the decisions required of climate women’s rights. Comprised of 22 chapters from change. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 124 ​​Indeed, prior to the colonial period, women had that the lived experiences of our Marshallese significant power in decision-making, and played women are far from perfect. Women continue roles in fishing, canoe building and navigation. to face multiple barriers that prevent them from With Christian influence at the turn of the 19th enjoying a life free from violence and coercion century this culture changed, and the power where they can access equal opportunities and of women was diminished. Today, women face equal rights.” multiple barriers that prevent them from living lives free of violence and coercion, and decision The report goes on to note: making power is largely in the hands of men. “The fundamental values of Marshallese culture The complexity and dilemma of acknowledging include caring for each other, respect, reciprocity the issue and changing current norms is and partnership. However, these traditional demonstrated by quotes from recent studies: beliefs and women’s customary rights co-exist with dissonant gender stereotypes, gender roles 130 1. The NAP GN report commissioned by the and inequality. In modern society, most decision- NDC – Partnership Working Group notes: making has shifted to the men of the family. “While both gender and human rights Stereotypes include the belief that women’s are espoused by Marshallese Institutions, place is in the home, while men should occupy their incorporation into the nation’s efforts the public space…” to adapt to climate change is a complex task often requiring new ways of thinking, 3. The Beca Output 2 report132, commissioned collaborating and governing”. by the PREP II Project, noted a report by WUTMI133 which: Understanding why gender equality and human rights considerations should be central “... found patriarchal ideology reflected in to adaptation efforts, and how to accomplish community values and beliefs regarding gender, these important objectives, is essential for an gender roles and women’s rights, and men’s use effective response of the Marshallese people of violence against women.” and its government to the climate crisis. It went on to note: “Despite having a history 2. The Ministry of Culture and Internal Affairs of matrilineal land rights and women having Gender Equality report131 states: chiefly titles and clan affiliation, (recent) cultural and religious values shape constructions of “In Marshallese culture, women are traditionally masculinity and femininity, placing women in a respected as key decision-makers and subordinate role to men. These gender unequal landowners and recognised for their contribution values, attitudes and practices are repeatedly to our economy, society and families. We conflated with tradition or ‘custom’. As a result, culturally value women and girls, but we realise women are accorded fewer rights and less 130 NAP Global Network, “Gender and Human Rights Analysis: Ensuring a Gender-Responsive NAP in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2021 131 Ministry of Culture and Internal Affairs, “Gender Equality – where do we stand?”, May 2018 132 Beca Consultants, “Output 2 – Sector Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning Report” August 2023 133 WUTMI, “Someone to Save Me From Him: Findings from the Community Engagement Study on the Design of the Violence Against Women and Girls Support Service in RMI, 2016 125 social freedoms than men, and men’s use of nurturers, providers and overall leaders of their violence against women is justified and largely clans were undermined and the power which used with impunity. Over half of all women (56%) belonged to them was passed on and continues and men (58%) surveyed agreed that violence to be vested in their brothers as a result of foreign against women was justified under specific contact.” 4 circumstances.” De Brum also references Arthur Spoehr136: 4. But this was not always the case and the conflict between traditional and modern “The extant scholarship offers evidence of values might be explained by Tonie de Marshallese women’s standing being diminished Brum134 who references Carol Curtis135: by the missionary values of Christianity and western society’s notion of traditional gender “…during the pre-colonial period women were roles – all of which were accepted by the always held in great respect. Because they were Marshallese. Nowadays, customary norms, the creators of new clans and lineages they stereotypes of women’s roles and a lack of had significant power in their community and public awareness have left Marshallese women decision-making. However …after Christianity excluded from decision-making positions.” had swept through the RMI at the turn of the 19th century, the power vested in women through This has been addressed to some extent by their matrilineal lineage began to dissipate. recent equality policy and law and within the RMI Public Service women occupy senior positions She recalls a time in history, before Christian – however, as noted by WUTMI, progress is influences, when women were fishers, canoe slow and the norms and blockages still exist. builders and navigators themselves. The Representation in the Nitijela and in local traditional roles of Marshallese women as government remains sparse. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 134 Kattil-De Brum Tonie K, “Women of the Marshall Islands and Environmental Change: Agency and Power in Resource Management” Thesis for MES – University of Waikato, NZ, 2018 135 Curtis Carol, “Women and Culture”, (n.d), 1992 136 Spoehr, A, “Majuro: A village in the Marshall Islands”, Chicago Natural History Museum, 1949 126 At a political level, action has been taken with One example of the complexities of the the “National Gender Mainstreaming Policy” challenge, from the community consultations, is (2015), the report from the Ministry of Culture and from Wotje, where women explained that due Internal Affairs on “Gender Equality – where do to the increase in air temperature they find they we stand?” (2018) and the more recent “Gender are staying home more and not interacting Equality Act” (2019). with and supporting each other. This coupled with the reduction of livelihood options for men At a social and community level, the slow puts more stress on women in the household implementation of these measures is showing and can lead to violence without a positive a need to go far beyond the current dialogue coping mechanism. Therefore, the community and provide for programs, commitment and requested for traditional huts to be built around champions across society. There are concerns the island to promote social cohesion and 1 in the NAP GN report that efforts to address strengthen positive social networks. these issues have a feel of ‘tick box’ measures and it is felt a focused and better resourced Youth, Elderly, and the Infirm/ Disabled: response is required. This view is reinforced Approximately 34% of the RMI population are in discussions with the WUTMI Board, who note under age 15, and 54% are under 24. With high their successes while lamenting the lack of rates of teenage pregnancy and only 5% resources and noting ruefully their difficulty possessing tertiary qualifications, youth face in having an overall impact because of unique challenges. Many must leave rural homes entrenched attitudes. for education, limiting visits due to transportation issues. Climate change impacts are forcing The NAP should become a platform for more young people to leave their home islands gender action. This can be achieved through to support families, thus affecting both the development of a Gender Action Plan and by working-age population on outer islands and inclusion of gender elements in all sector action the youth’s connection to traditional skills and plans. healthy diets. Furthermore, the visible impacts of climate change are causing despair and anxiety Two things are clear. First, the fundamental among youth about their future on traditional importance of women’s voice in climate change lands. The Youth Services Bureau emphasizes decision-making. Cabinet has acknowledged education and discussion with young people this in adopting the SLR Adaptation Policy137 in to help them understand climate adaptation, June, in which addressing women’s voice is one mitigation, and preservation of Marshallese of the priority underlying issues. Second, the need cultural traditions. to elevate the work of WUTMI to a higher level of focus and resourcing and the work of MCIA to On average, life expectancy is around 65 promote gender equality and responsiveness in years138.Ischemic heart disease is the leading all sectors. Both are required to overcome the cause of death in the RMI139. Poor diet, water substantial barrier represented by the current scarcity, and higher temperatures exacerbate social norms and stereotypes around gender. the existing vulnerabilities of this population. 137 Government of RMI, “SLR Adaptation Policy”, June 2023 138 World Bank, 2021 139 IHME, 2021 127 Access to health care is limited to primary migration, particularly for senior citizens and care in the outer islands and secondary care those with underlying health conditions140. The in the mainland. Vulnerable older adults and limited diet available, temperatures, and risk of those with underlying health conditions may be extreme weather events may be things that this required to travel overseas for health care away population cannot withstand and result in higher from their main support networks. Health is one rates of morbidity amongst this population, of the primary reasons for internal and external increased health effects, or forced migration. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific Persons with disabilities in the Pacific Islands, living in poorly constructed homes. Recovery notably the 6,210 in the Republic of the Marshall post-disasters is often slower, with some facing Islands (RMI), face significant marginalization. displacement or inadequate housing. Though The 2021 RMI Census revealed disabilities such as RMI ratified the Convention of the Rights of difficulties in seeing (8%), hearing (4%), walking or Persons with Disabilities in 2015, services are climbing (5%), concentrating (6%), self-care (3%), sparse, particularly on outer islands, due to and communicating (3%). Their lower adaptive funding constraints. These challenges often capacity makes them particularly vulnerable result in social and financial isolation for disabled to climate change and disasters. Challenges individuals. The government did establish a include not accessing warnings due to hearing disability pension in 1990 through the Marshall or reading impairments, mobility issues, and Islands Social Security Administration (MISSA), 140 Van Der Geest et al., 2019 128 but the scheme’s effectiveness is uncertain due take their lands and threaten their rights and to data gaps. There’s a pressing need to bolster livelihoods, possibly within generations. support for this vulnerable group. Land tenure: The land tenure arrangements in Culture: The MoCIA is responsible for protecting the RMI mean that all land is private. A current historic and cultural heritage. Currently, this is vulnerability associated with land tenure is focused on identifying sites of cultural heritage that many arrangements, particularly in outer and the demarcation on maps. The HPO within atolls, are ‘handshake’ agreements between MoCIA also has the function of reviewing landowner and leaseholder, which means they earthwork applications and commenting on any rely on the ongoing goodwill of the parties cultural heritage sites of significance that may involved. This may create future vulnerabilities as be impacted. However, there is currently limited land comes under more pressure due to rising information on the impacts of climate change sea levels. There is also a process of voluntary on cultural sites of significance in the RMI. registration of land ownership. This creates Anecdotal reports are that many cemeteries vulnerabilities as unclear land ownership and are at risk from coastal erosion and SLR, and lease arrangements may be the subject of such sites being damaged can have very high increasing disputes in the future, particularly associated impacts on the community. as people become displaced from their lands and seek to migrate to other land areas they There are also vulnerabilities associated with consider they have a ‘claim’ over. The lack of maintaining cultural practices in the RMI with a planning controls over what can and cannot changing climate. For example, water shortages be done on land means that land particularly and rising sea levels on the outer atolls affect the vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate traditional plants that comprise the predominant may continue to be developed, increasing diet in outer atolls. Embedded cultural practices climate risks over time. tied to traditional food sources are at risk, particularly in outer atoll communities. There are Institutional vulnerability: The key impacts on also implications for traditional practices, such the Divisions/ Offices operating under the MoCIA as the production of handicrafts, with physical are summarized in Table 14 below: resources, such as freshwater for growing crops used in the production of the handicrafts, coming under strain. Given the reliance of many outer atoll communities on handicrafts for income, this is a higher vulnerability for outer atolls than main urban centers. The CDD Situational Statement points to other less visible effects of climate change on vulnerable people: There is growing despair or identity crisis affecting the populations of low- lying atolls, where people have close ties to their land but have little idea how to accept or deal with the knowledge that climate change will 129 Table 14: MoCIA Roles In Addressing Climate Vulnerabilities 130 Policies/strategies: The RMI government role in decision-making; Gender Equality Act recognizes gender and human rights as essential (RMI, 2019) - Legally frames gender equality, in national strategies, laws, and institutions. promoting gender integration across climate- The CDD in MoCIA oversees implementing, related policies; Updated Nationally Determined monitoring, and reporting on policies for Contribution (RMI, 2018) - Commits to gender- vulnerable groups and international treaties responsive approaches and aims for carbon (CRC, CEDAW, and CRPD) serving marginalized neutrality by 2050. The 2019-2021 NDC Partnership individuals. It promotes gender in development Plan focuses on incorporating gender and initiatives, institutional arrangements, and human rights in the NAP and climate action, financing, focusing on diverse needs and voices. including gender-sensitive budgeting. CDD emphasizes women’s leadership and

4.4 Vulnerabilities of the Natural capacity building for better problem solutions. Resources and Commerce Sectors CDD leads the Gender and Protection Cluster under the National Disaster Management Climate change poses severe risks to the RMI’s Office, acts as the secretariat for the National natural resources and commerce sectors, Human Rights Committee, and chairs the WUTMI which depend on environmental conditions for Executive Committee, among other roles. The sustenance and trade. The existing nutrient-poor Training Centre, partnered with WUTMI, prepares soil, lacking essential elements like nitrogen and Marshallese for employment, including a two- phosphorus, will be further strained by escalating month handicraft course. temperatures, droughts, and sea level rise. RMI’s international voice includes a seat on Intensifying droughts have led some outer atoll the UN Human Rights Council, and women communities to forgo farming, conserving scarce leaders are engaged in global women’s rights water strictly for household use. Such drastic discussions. The National Gender Mainstreaming adaptations have negative repercussions on Policy (2015) and other key documents community health and nutrition. The ACWA guide gender integration in government project addresses part of this challenge by services, economic empowerment, and upgrading 3,000 homes for enhanced rainwater inequality reduction. Official priorities include harvesting. Yet, despite these efforts, the issue of addressing teenage pregnancy, violence freshwater availability remains acute, especially against women, and limited access to justice. in the northern atolls. The RMI has uniquely fragile water resources Main national policies aimed at improving due to their small size, lack of storage, and gender equality within climate change strategies limited freshwater.141 The main sources of fresh include: National Gender Mainstreaming Policy water are rainfall harvesting and groundwater (RMI, 2015) - Focuses on delivering gender- – urban centers utilize rainwater, groundwater, responsive programs and reducing GBV; Tile Til Eo desalination, and imports, while the outer islands 2050 Climate Strategy (RMI, 2018) - Incorporates use mainly rainwater and groundwater. Wet gender and human rights into adaptation season rainfall generally supplies the majority and mitigation strategies, promoting women’s of freshwater to the RMI, and the main source 141 Subbarao, S. & Mucadam, R. (2015). Second National Communication of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. United Nations Development Program/Global Environment Facility. Suva, Fiji. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/mhlnc2.pdf 131 of drinking water is rainwater catchments and atolls, with less rain-fed recharge, increased tanks which are used by almost four-fifths of evaporation, and increased water demand.1 households.142 About 88% of the population has access to improved drinking water sources. Northern atolls in RMI predominantly rely on Despite relatively high rainfall, the limited storage rainwater, making them vulnerable during low capacity and aging reticulated water system rainfall periods. The 1998/1999 El Nino, one of the mean the public water supply is rationed – under most severe, brought only 8% of the usual rainfall non-drought, normal operating conditions, the over four months, severely impacting areas like public water operates three days a week for four Laura’s freshwater lens on Majuro. This shortage hours a day.143 forced the government to declare a disaster and use Reverse Osmosis (RO) Units, which are There is a pressing need to upgrade the expensive, environmentally unsustainable, and city’s water infrastructure due to historic emit CO2. The implications for RMI’s disaster underinvestment in water management and management and response are significant, rehabilitating water and wastewater systems. with potential increases in the frequency and This urgency is heightened as more people intensity of El Nino events. relocate to the two urban islands, adding strain on already stretched water supplies. The MNRC has seen an increase in breadfruit trees impacts of climate change, specifically salt- being “burnt,” meaning that a section or the water intrusion, on these resources haven’t been entire canopy of the breadfruit tree has lost its thoroughly addressed1. On the Majuro atoll, the leaves and is not producing any breadfruit. This is primary water sources are the Laura freshwater due to an increase in temperature and exposure lens and an airport runway catchment system. to salt spray. Plans to increase the planting of These feed the city’s main reservoir. As global these traditional species by MNRC must include temperatures climb, this reservoir risks increased measures to ensure the plants remain viable evaporation rates, further limiting an already with climate change impacts. scarce freshwater supply. Rising temperatures and increased hot days also pose risks to communities, with heat stress and Additionally, the looming threat of sea level discomfort affecting outdoor agricultural and rise can compromise this freshwater lens. This forestry activities and constraining the number leads to risks like saline contamination, affecting of hours that can be spent on them. agriculture, and general depletion of freshwater reserves. If sea levels continue to rise and are Crops will become increasingly susceptible to combined with increased storm surges, it could pests and diseases. Pests such as the breadfruit temporarily make groundwater saline, a situation mealybug, coconut scale, and spiraling whitefly, only remedied when sea levels stabilize1. which can seriously affect crop productivity and overall food security, may increase. The Lower rainfall with higher temperatures isolation of the RMI means that these same associated with global warming would crops have a narrow genetic base, particularly decrease the groundwater resources of these 142 RMI (2016). Republic of Marshall Islands State of the Environment Report 2016. Apia, Samoa: SPREP. URL: https://www.sprep. org/attachments/VirLib/Marshall_Islands/state-of-environment-report-2016.pdf 143 ADB (2020b). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2020, 51st Edition. Asian Development Bank. Manila. URL: https://www.adb. org/sites/default/files/publication/632971/ki2020.pdf 132 some of the varieties of species of pandanus, decline in agriculture engagement. This also taro, breadfruit, coconuts, dwarf banana, impacts the handicraft industry, which often and sources of traditional medicines, which relies on natural resources like freshwater to are now endangered. This increases their grow the plants used in the outer atolls. vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Protecting the genetic diversity of these crops Historically, coastal forests on the beach crest from introduced pests and diseases and the above the high tide mark have been thinned effects of extreme weather events like droughts and removed in many urban and rural areas and severe cyclones, is difficult (and sensitivity to provide land for development, particularly in high). The limited resources currently in the RMI Majuro and Ebeye. These root systems were used for quarantine and biosecurity increase the to reinforce the beach “berm” or crest and, to vulnerability to pest and disease outbreaks with an extent, could resist coastal erosion, maintain warming temperatures. berm height, and therefore minimize the occurrence of overtopping. Their removal has With increased migration to urban centers resulted in more frequent overtopping events and beyond, here is an increasing risk of losing and erosion along the foreshore, increasing traditional knowledge of agricultural practices. vulnerability over time. Tables 15 and 16 show This includes the knowledge of how to farm sectoral vulnerabilities in the RMI. and care for domestic and traditional plants and animals across the outer atolls. This has 4.5 Summary of RMI Community accompanied Marshallese households’ overall and Sector-Level Vulnerabilities Table 15: Summary of Community-Level Perceptions of their Vulnerability across the RMI Sea Level Rise Rising temperature of ocean Typhoon Rising Air Temperature Drought Vector Borne/ Depletion Gender Handicraft King Water Coastal Food Radioactive Coral Infrastructural Dock Isolation and Food Flooding Water Borne of Fishing based Livelihood Erratic Rainfall industry Tides Contamination Erosion Contamination Contamination bleaching Damages Damages Heat Stress Insecurity Atoll Type Disease Stocks Vioence impacted Amo Urban Majuro Urban Ebeye Urban Ailinglaplap Intermediate Wotje Intermediate Jaluit Intermediate Ailuk Rural Enewatak Rural Kwajalein Rural Wotho Rural Ebon Rural Kili Rural Likiep Rural Mejatto Rural Ujae Rural Utrik Rural Red= Hi; Blue= Mid; Green=Lo; White=No response Table 16: Summary of Sector Vulnerabilities across the RMI 133 Red= Hi; Orange= Mid; Grey= Lo or No; Green=Hazard may reduce Vulnerability 134 - __,- -- - - - - Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 135 Section E: THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PATHWAY FOR SURVIVAL 137 Section E: THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PATHWAY FOR SURVIVAL

5.0 Purpose of the Adaptation Pathway As described in the previous section, the Practical development options in the Adaptation projected effects of climate change for RMI are Pathway are limited by the low lying and often uncertain and will unfold over many decades narrow land forms (there is limited width and and well into the next century. Therefore, height to retreat to) and by the attendant high adaptation is best approached as a process cost of long term land protection measures 144 of adjustment over time . RMI’s NAP identifies (involving hard edged engineered walls or an Adaptation Pathway grounded in the best revetments and, ultimately, lifting of land). They available science and seeks to set out a process are also limited by the enabling environment, for preparing for the impacts of climate change, both from a cultural perspective (noting the and implementing adaptation activity to secure difficulties for development arising from the the well being of MRI citizens. The Adaptation traditional land tenure and individual rights Pathway also aims to limit loss and damage. mechanisms) and from the need to develop adaptation capacity and adjust the institutional The Adaptation Pathway is characterized governance frameworks to enable the dynamic by a sequence of actions in the long-term, and the critical decision-making required. each triggered by a change in environmental conditions (for example, sea-level rise), social The intermediate and long-term habitation limits conditions (for example, out migration), or a from sea level rise (SLR) are contained in the SLR combination of these. Trigger points indicate Policy148, however it is becoming clear149 that when there is a need for a step change in ‘the complex intersections of climate related 145 adaptation action . In this way, the Adaptation impacts means that it is likely habitation limits Pathway guides how adaptation activities will be reached long before sea level rise makes should happen, what adaptation should islands uninhabitable’. involve, and, importantly, when adaptation should happen – which is not a set date, but This underscores the need for urgent action is based on when conditions make changes and decision making in the early phases of the necessary146. The Adaptation Pathway enables Pathway. Particularly, there is need to establish adaptation to begin now with dynamic SLR and climate impacts monitoring to inform decision-making in response to changing decision-making and to undertake deep conditions and new information147. discussion on the underlying issues of the SLR Policy. 144 Hasnoot et al.,, 2013 145 Werners et al., 2015 146 Werners et al. 2021 147 Barnett et al., 2014 148 RMI Government, RMI SLR Adaptation Policy, Cabinet Minute 098 (2023), June 2023 149 Beca Output 3 Report – Community Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning Report, September 2023 138 The proposed Pathway is set out in Figure 21. It values150. includes four phases – all adjusted for actual observations of climate impacts at the time: ii. An efficient pathway that is well planned, coordinated, mainstreamed across all ​​Phase D1 (2023 – 2040) In this phase, the sectors and scales, and commenced as necessary implementation frameworks would soon as possible151. be prepared, the technical studies on the protection measures and the underlying issues iii. An equitable pathway that considers the of the SLR Policy would be undertaken, and local most and least vulnerable people, their planning and measures for community led livelihoods, quality of life, and prospects for low technology and nature-based-adaptation a better future for the next generations of would be initiated. Marshallese. Phase D2 (2040 – 2050) In this phase, key iv. An enabled pathway that is data and decisions on protection measures for the 20” evidence-based, led by national leaders, (0.5m) SLR decision point would be made. There implemented through responsible and would be consideration of the consolidation empowered national institutions, and of services and planned relocations from sufficiently resourced152. unprotected atolls as necessary and v. A sustainable pathway that is designed to consideration of the practicability of measures improve the lives of as many Marshallese to achieve protection to 6.5ft (0.5m) SLR for 2150 for as long as possible without risking worse and beyond. conditions for them because of actions Phase D3 (2050 – 2070) This phase includes taken in the short to medium term. the implementation of identified measures for protection and planned relocation and review 5.1 Considerations for Decision- of the Pathway beyond D3. making for the Pathway Phase D4 (2070/2090 – 2150) This phase provides i. Managing Uncertainty: Our Pathway for validation and implementation of 6.5ft (2m) acknowledges that uncertainties over SLR protection measures or alternative pathways time could impact the mid- and long-term of migration or identification of alternative decisions. The flexibility to manage such land[SS1] . uncertainties is built into the Pathway. Pathway Principles: Over the long-term timeline, Uncertainty 1: Projections about how much five indelible principles will guide this process: the climate will change arise because there is uncertainty about how much emissions of i. An effective pathway that is driven by the greenhouse gasses there will be. The trend of demand of the Marshallese people to more warming, rising seas, and changes in respond to national and local needs and climate and oceanic processes is clear: some 150 Eriksen, et al., 2011 151 Schipper et al., 2022 152 Barnett, 2022 139 change is now occurring, and more change iii. The raised and protected land for the is inevitable – with all indications pointing to 2150 timeframe should provide space to increasing changes, but the actual amount and safely accommodate people for a sea 153 timing of changes are still unclear . level rise scenario of 2 meters. The amount of land required to host 10,000 Marshallese Uncertainty 2: The specific responses of would range from 0.25 km2, for a population environmental systems to changes in climate density comparable to Ebeye today, to and oceans is uncertain. For example, there is 1.5 km2, for a population density comparable uncertainty about the future shape and size of to Delap today. A new airport would require islands154. an additional ~0.5 km2. The land would need Uncertainty 3: There is uncertainty about to be raised to a minimum target elevation the effectiveness of specific adaptation between 11.0 and 12.5ft (3.3 and 3.8m) to interventions. As noted by the IPCC, “there is prevent groundwater-driven intrusion for up limited information on the effectiveness of to 2 meters of sea level rise. the adaptation practices and the scale of action needed”155. Not much is known about iv. Preliminary analyses on identifying land adaptation on atolls156 because there has for protection is based on environmental been little investment in research and tangible and physical parameters that may be initiatives157. Pilot studies are needed, for moderated by social and cultural priorities: example, to identify whether nature-based While physical and environmental criteria measures will be able to keep pace with an are used for identifying land to protect accelerating rate of sea level rise. and elevate, they are only part of a much broader decision-making process that will ii. The timeline for action is based on present need to take place, in which many other scientific models and data: This NAP is important factors will contribute to and predicated on data and information which influence the decision (see Table 17 below). informs that sea levels are projected to Extensive stakeholder engagement will be rise around the RMI to: 20” (0.5m) between required for some factors to be adequately 2070 and 2090; 3.3ft (1m) around 2130, and; considered in order to fully incorporate them 6.5ft (2m) beyond 2150. At around 20 in in the decision-making process, while others (0.5m) of Sea Level Rise (SLR), habitability of may require more detailed data collection unprotected atolls will become problematic and analyses over the timeline. due to extreme tides and frequent wave over-wash. 153 As per the RMI Sea-Level Rise Policy 2023, SLR and its effects shall be actively monitored for the purposes of adaptation planning and decision-making, hence recognizing this uncertainty. For this purpose, the IPCC 2021 SLR Scenario projections SSP1- 2.6, SSP2- 4.5 and SSP5-8.5 should be used as the basis for updating future SLR planning projections. 154 Kench et al., 2018 155 Mycoo et al. 2022 156 In theory adaptation can significantly reduce climate impacts on atolls. For example, there are already highly engineered islands (such as Hulhumale in the Maldives) that are likely to be sustainable through a changing climate (Brown et al., 2020). 157 UNEP, 2022 140 Table 17: Additional Criteria for Pathway Decision-making (Deltares, 2023) Theme Factors Socio-cultural Heritage, potential for traditional livelihoods, diversity, cultural protection status Socio-economic Presence of vulnerable populations, blue economy, distribution of costs and benefits of the project Socio-political Land ownership and rights, political will, governance, decision-making, legal conditions, geopolitical factors, financing availability Ongoing transitions Population loss and growth on different atolls, emigration, climate change rate, green energy transition, collaboration between SIDS Ecological Ecological impacts, environmental protection status (e.g. Marine Protected Areas) 5. Consideration of the Practicable Limits infrastructure, government services, and of Technical Feasibility: These include commerce and less feasible if these are exposure to hazards, construction feasibility, lacking in a transition phase. and functional feasibility. Exposure to hazards: RMI is exposed to several natural 6. All the adaptation pathway options are hazards, including waves, typhoons, extreme costly. Investments available for flood precipitation, flooding, and drought. Several protection measures will likely be insufficient. atolls have the additional hazard of having Most neighboring islands and intermediate a history of nuclear testing. Construction centers will only be protected by low-cost, feasibility: Raising or creating new land in RMI local adaptation solutions, and planned that is large enough to house 10,000 people relocation from these islands to new centers and an airport would be challenging, given is very likely. The cost of protecting all atolls RMI’s remoteness and atoll geomorphology. against this is costly (order of $35 billion for Thus, the emphasis is currently on the 6.5ft (2m) SLR and $5 billion for 20” (0.5m) physical size and shape of an atoll, its SLR) – it will be necessary to consider which accessibility, and its proximity to services parts of atolls, and how many atolls, can be during the construction phase. Functional protected. The cost of protection is a well- feasibility during the transition period: Any known limitation and this likely means that planned movement of people, infrastructure, protection of the urban centres of Ebeye government services, and commerce will and Majuro D-U-D beyond 20” (0.5m) SLR is take long transition periods. Therefore, an not practical. option is for new settlements to be developed 7. Recognize that a conducive enabling near settlements that have existing service environment must be put in place for infrastructure and commerce that can be effective implementation of physical extended; or in areas where there is feasibility actions: The physical implementation of to situate such services (utilities, commerce the Pathway actions requires grounding, etc). It is more functionally feasible if new empowerment, and national authorization settlements can accommodate existing 141 via respective legislative, policy158, planning, There are two Threshold Points identified and institutional governance frameworks. along the Pathway. Threshold Point 1, around The current institutional and implementation 2070, is the estimated ‘marker’ year by which landscape have to be assessed and sea-level rise is expected to an estimated 20” improved as necessary, particularly in the (0.5m) mark around the RMI. Threshold Point 2 short term, to facilitate the later phases of has been pinned at around 2150 when the sea- the Pathway. level is estimated to reach a 6.5ft (2m) mark. Each threshold corresponds to certain adaptive 8. Consider nature-based solutions in place of actions, or suite of actions, that must be taken. hard-engineered solutions where available and appropriate: Identify low-cost and Four main Decision Points (D, D2, D3, D4) are nature-based adaptation measures identified along the Pathway. Each of these and activate them locally in the short decision points represents the relative point to intermediate term. This is to improve in time by which critical national decisions habitability and potentially extend the 20 must be made. At these points, the decisions inches (0.5m) SLR tipping point projection. will affect subsequent decisions along the These measures should include upscaling pathway; they are path-dependent decision local initiatives from Reimaanlok and points. The first two decision points prioritize traditional activity. For long term protection national decisions about Protection as a piecemeal hard-edge adaptation measures main adaptation strategy, while the next two will not be sufficient or effective for RMI, and decision points further along the timeline incremental measures building towards an identified planning point over time will be focus on national decisions about Planned necessary. Relocation and Migration as adaptation strategies.

5.2 Pathway Steps 2023 to 2150 The Pathway (Figure 21) includes the key activities, targets, and critical decision points and options and identifies timely windows of opportunity for the execution of a national strategy to combat climate change. In its first NAP, RMI seeks to focus on the next ten years of implementation. The NAP will be revised, updated, renewed, and reapproved in 10-year cycles over the Pathway timeline. As we focus on the next decade of action in our Pathway, we do so while collectively steering toward the 2070 and 2150 thresholds. The Pathway takes us from the present 2023 to a long-range planning point of 2150. 158 An example of this is the SLR Policy 2023 that calls for a rolling 50-year planning horizon for SLR be applied to definitive adaptation planning; and that a National Planning Statement for Climate Change be prepared to guide and monitor adaptation development. 142 Figure 21: The Long-Term National Adaptation Pathway of the Republic of the Marshall Islands 143 From 2023 to around 2040 In this phase, the RMI intends to resolve many execution, and monitoring of investments of the underlying issues to enable the pathway aimed at mitigating the impacts of for decisive and effective implementation of climate change or adapting to its effects; adaptation actions. These issues are further and identifying and accessing various discussed in the Enabling Conditions section of sources of finance, such as public and the NAP, but six broadly described issues are the private funds, grants, loans, or investments. most relevant to adaptation. 1. Public policy transformation through 5. Reviewing and updating environmental reforming existing policies to align with and construction regulations to align climate change needs, technological withclimate adaptation protection and advancements, and global trends. relocation priorities, considering geophysical Transformation also includes streamlining and infrastructure works across parts of the processes, reducing red tape, enhancing RMI. government responsiveness, and replacing outdated policies that may hinder climate During this period, the RMI government and adaptation objectives. stakeholders must develop and implement atoll specific adaptation and resilience measures 2. Develop institutional and administrative through atoll adaptation and disaster planning arrangements and capacity to implement which includes resilience provisions from national adaptation activities. This includes the new DRM Act 2023. The focus of the next structuring the government mechanisms, decade is the design and planning stage, with ministries, agencies, and committees to implementation/ construction later on. undertake climate actions effectively and efficiently in coordinated ways. It also includes In the Urban atolls of Majuro and Ebeye, the arrangements for oversight, governance, design plans will include how to relocate accountability, and transparency. communities and government services and therefore identify agreed new sites on the 3. Align land tenure and land rights with atolls that meet the criteria of being able to be climate adaptation needs as necessary protected to the 0.5m sea level rise threshold and appropriate.. This includes reconciling by 2070 and have the potential to be protected Marshallese traditional land ownership and to the 2m threshold by 2150, if it is found to be transfer approaches with modern best practicable. Coastal protection measures for practices. This applies to communities, urban centers must be upgraded to prevent businesses, investors, and donors. frequent flooding and buy time for long-term transformative measures. Urban centers, such 4. Develop climate finance pipelines, i.e., as the Djarrit-Uliga-Delap (DUD) area in Majuro the processes of securing and channeling and Ebeye, house most of the population and financial resources towards climate- key critical infrastructure such as hospitals and related projects and initiatives. This includes airports. Without adaptation, these densely the planning, development, approval, populated urban centers will experience 144 frequent flooding even with small amounts of In Semi-Urban atolls, the objective will be to sea level rise. With SLR in excess of 20” (0.5m) invest in protection to be resilient to the 0.5m ground water intrusion from rising sea will lead sea-level rise (Threshold 1). This could mean to the need to lift land as well as protect it. This protecting entire atolls or at least their highest is impractical in the highly developed existing elevations. Where that atoll cannot be protected urban centers and consideration will need to be to this Threshold and adaptive mechanisms given to re-locating the center of government shift from protection to planned relocation of to a safer site. communities. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific Two options exist for intermediate centers: important aspect of these measures allows for either the ‘low-cost, short-term’ option, periodic flooding and storm deposition on the ultimately leading to the island’s abandonment island, thus allowing for some natural dynamics in decades to come, or the ‘high-cost, long- and potential vertical growth of the coastal term’ option, leading to a consolidated urban berm in response to sea level rise. However, center later in the Pathway. The first option they provide less protection against flooding is the implementation of Nature-based than engineered coastal protection structures, Solutions (NbS) to increase protection levels and island assets will be periodically flooded. and decrease the vulnerability of these Additional measures for this low-cost scenario islands to flooding. Possible measures include include planned relocation from hazardous reef restoration, artificial reef structures, and regions (near the ocean coast and areas coastal berm enhancement (vegetation below mean sea level) to safer locations on the planting, vertical increase of the berm level). An 145 intermediate centers. Between 2070 and 2090159, climate change impacts render the islands the intermediate centers relying on NbS are uninhabitable (for example, moving away from expected to become uninhabitable, primarily flood-prone areas within the same atoll). NbS due to frequent flooding, but also on some measures allow for local, inclusive adaptation islands due to salinization of drinking water and/ with strong involvement of local inhabitants. The or insufficient agricultural production. Monitoring need for these studies are also anticipated in flooding and island change will help inform both the SLR Policy. residents and the government in the decision for The results of a preliminary multicriteria planned relocation. 160 assessment study , are shown in Table 18 The second option for intermediate centers below. Since many criteria in the construction is raising land and protecting it. Studies for and functional feasibility themes are based on addressing these issues are contained in the SLR proximity (to transport and critical infrastructure, Policy. basic amenities), Majuro, Kwajalein, and several nearby atolls appear at the top of the list. Since In Outer or Rural atolls, RMI will promote climate more criteria (social, cultural, and economic) resilience through appropriate NbS solutions should be included, this list is illustrative but and cost-effective, hard-engineered protection provides an example of the future analysis that for identified infrastructure and works. The the RMI government will undertake for decision- adaptation pathway for sparsely populated making along the Pathway. neighboring atolls and other islands comes down to buying time until sea level rise and other Table 18. Illustrative Ranking of 10 atolls on Raising Land or Creating new land areas* * Based on the outcome of an initial MOCIA for physical and environmental criteria when all criteria are weighted equally (Deltares, 2023). 159 In 2070 SLR is expected to be 0.36 m to 0.47 for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In 2090, SLR is expected to reach 0.49 m to 0.74 m for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively (Garner et al., 2021). 160 Deltares, 2023. Methodology to identify land to protect and elevate. Assessment of environmental and technical criteria. 146 Between 2040 and 2050 RMI population. This largely pertains to building In this phase, the critical Decision Point 2 the ‘new’ Majuro and Ebeye at their designated is included. Here, the RMI government and new locations. It also focuses on the major stakeholders will consider the actual sea-level development of raised and protected locations rise and other up-to-date data and models to within the RMI where the communities from areas select and decide which atolls shall continue they deem uninhabitable may move to and be along a protection pathway as their adaptation accommodated and where their livelihoods can strategies, be it nature-based, hard-edged, or a be sustained or improved. This is the ‘transition’ combination of both. If needed, decisions will also period during which new communities, housing, be made regarding which atolls can no longer government services, and requirements for be protected based on priorities for protection, living are built and developed. This period also size of communities and acquired funds. represents when the RMI’s forward-looking strategy focuses more on relocation. New, raised centers need to be created to provide space for habitation, government buildings, 2070 to around 2090 and infrastructure in the RMI in the long term. As the sea level rises, parts of the urban centers No communities are living on atolls or islands will be lower than the surrounding sea. This will where their safety and livelihoods are threatened lead to groundwater salinization and problems and the population is now consolidated in for agriculture and drinking water supply. At the elevated and protected land areas. This the same time, water may seep under coastal represents the important strategic completion defense structures and inundate low-lying of adaptive action on the Pathway to avert areas without continuous and costly drainage the worst-case scenarios of the 20 in (0.5m) and dewatering. This will likely lead to parts of sea-level rise (Threshold 1). In this period, the the urban centers becoming uninhabitable RMI government and stakeholders must start sometime between 20 and 40 in (0.5 and 1 m) looking at the most recent data and models to 161 determine if a further shift in adaptation strategy sea level rise . Raising land in densely populated urban centers is probably not economically and is needed to counter the 6.5ft (2m) sea-level practically feasible. Therefore, new space will rise (Threshold 2) by 2150. The decision here need to be created in anticipation of increased is to invest in further protection infrastructure flooding beyond 20 in (0.5 m) of sea level rise. of the already protected atolls/ areas or a The area to reclaim or raise depends strongly on combination thereof to confront the projected the availability of funds for adaptation. 2m sea level rise or shift the adaptation strategy to a priority of preparedness for migration of the Between 2050 to 2070 population out of the RMI. A phased approach The major construction of protective could include raising islands for 3.3 ft (1 m) sea infrastructure at new community sites must level rise with adaptive/floodproof infrastructure be completed. Importantly, these new sites will and housing (e.g., high doorsteps, proper consist of lands or atolls (or some combination drainage systems, compartmentalization of thereof) that can accommodate the projected areas to reduce flooding extents) that allows 161 Monitoring of ocean and in particular groundwater levels on the atolls will help better identify what amount of sea level rise between 20 and 40 in (0.5–1.0 m) will lead to groundwater flooding around critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and main access roads, and under what conditions this flooding is likely to occur. 147 for future protection / raising works. This will also sea-level rise was estimated in 2021 at over be based on factors including the will of the USD 1000 million. Therefore, prioritization of people, updated models of sea-level rise, other investments will be required162. For example, geophysical and meteorological challenges (for protecting the DUD area from flooding on the example, frequency of extreme weather events). open ocean coast or the ocean coast of Ebeye and the lagoon coast of DUD could require up to USD 250 million (Table 19), while investments 2100 to around 2150 of up to USD 500 million could provide ample If the D4 decision was to shift focus to options for prioritizing urban centers. The DUD’s population migration or finding alternative land, ocean and lagoon coast can be protected, but this is the period over which this will need to it is also an option to protect the ocean and be implemented and achieved. The Pathway lagoon coast of Rairok. Another option is to reiterated that this is the third adaptive priority focus investments on Ebeye and the causeway after the priority of atoll protection and atoll that links Ebeye to Guggegue. planned relocation have been exhausted Meanwhile, up to USD 1000 million could be between 2023 and 2090. required to protect the entire DUD-Rairok and Ebeye region. However, this does not include the

5.3 Estimating the Costs of Adaption Ebeye causeway. Hence, a second option exists Options where Ebeye and the entire causeway could be Protecting all urban centers up to 20 in (0.5m) protected from flooding. Table 19: Overview of adaptation options for protecting urban centers up to 0.5 m SLR for investment scenarios of approximately USD 250, 500, and 1000 million163. 162 Investments in this chapter are described in terms of costs (2021 $) and present value. The present value is the current value of a future sum of money that’s discounted by a rate of return. It tells you the amount needed to invest today to earn a specific amount in the future. It represents that money today is worth more than the same amount in the future, assuming that interest can be made on the investment which accumulates over time. For example, an investment of $1000 $ now, with an assumed rate of return of 6 %, would be worth $1000*1.0610= $1791 $ (79% greater) in 10 years. Similarly, at a rate of return of 6%, investments now would be approximately 18 times greater in 50 years. The other way around, we can back-calculate the investment needed now for an expense to be made in the future: the present value. The present value is therefore lower than the construction cost at a future time of execution. 163 Construction costs are based on estimates from the Majuro CVA. The range in costs includes both the choice for different types of protection, as well as the uncertainty in costs for each protection type. These costs do not include potential relocation / rehabilitation costs. Besides financial considerations and space requirements, other technical, institutional, and economic considerations exist on what parts of the urban centers to protect and how to protect these. 148 Raising an area of land sufficient for the entire Raising land to (2 m) sea level rise allows for current population of the RMI with an average the long-term habitability of islands but is also population density of 230 m2 per person expensive and requires significant investments (current population density of DUD-Rairok area; in a short timeframe. The decision of Threshold Atoll Study) is likely to exceed USD 5000 million. 2 will be made by around 2070 as this sea level Increasing population density in the elevated rise is estimated to occur by 2150. Table 20 area to that of Djarrit (approximately 55 m2 gives estimates for potential areas that can be per person) or Ebeye (approximately 25 m2 per raised or reclaimed, along with the associated person) will allow for greater populations to be potential population in these raised areas, for located on the raised areas and reduce total investment scenarios of USD 500, 1000, 2500, and costs. 5000 million. Table 20: Overview of adaptation options for raising or reclaiming land for new urban centers for investment scenarios of $ 500, 1000, 2500, and 5000 million. * Unit costs are based on the Atoll Study, Table 6-1. Three population densities are listed to estimate the total number of people to populate the new centers. Population estimates are rounded to the nearest hundred. Raising land to withstand sea level rise beyond 6.6 ft (2 m) is possible but more costly and has not been costed. 149 The abandoned land could be raised following square miles (0.17 km2) (USD 500 million) and 0.54 planned relocation from the urban centers. sq. miles (1.33 km2) (USD 2000 million) for Raise This would be cost-effective as the urban and Revetment (Table 21-22). Only a few smaller centers would be equipped with relatively regions at Wotje (Wodmej), Jaluit (Jabor), and advanced coastal protection structures. This Majuro (Arrak) can be protected by up to 3.3 ft (1 option is heavily dependent on demographic m) sea level rise under the investment scenarios trends (international migration, population of USD 250 and USD 500 million (Table 21). For density in remaining urban centers), condition the investment scenarios of $1000 and $2000, of the coastal protection structures, availability these centers, as well as Ine (Arno) and Ebadon of construction material, and sea level rise (Kwajalein), can be protected up to 6.6 ft (2 m) projections. sea level rise. Other intermediate centers such as Jaluit, Roi-Namur on Kwajalein, and Jih and For Semi-Urban centers, as shown in the total Woja on Ailinglaplap can be protected by up area that can be raised for four investment to 3.3 ft (1 m) sea level rise for these investment scenarios ranges from 0.12 sq. miles (0.31 km ) 2 scenarios (Table 22). These issues would be (USD 500 million) and 0.97 sq. miles (2.5 km ) 2 reviewed under the SLR Policy. (USD 2000 million) for Raise and Rebuild, to 0.07 Table 21: Overview of adaptation options for raising land to consolidate intermediate centers, for investment scenarios of $ 250, 500, 1000, and 2000 million. * Unit costs are based on the Atoll Study, Table 6-1. Three population densities are listed to estimate the total number of people to populate the new centers. Population estimates are rounded to the nearest hundred. Raising land to withstand SLR beyond 6.6 ft (2 m) is possible but more costly and has not been costed. 150 Table 22: Total costs (2021 $) for raising different islets of intermediate centers, for both the Raising & Rebuilding and Raising and Revetment options*. * Costs rounded to nearest $100 million. 151 152 Section F: NAP IMPLEMENTATION I: NATIONAL STRATEGY AND ACTION PLANS 153 Section F: NAP IMPLEMENTATION I: NATIONAL STRATEGY AND ACTION PLANS

6.0 The National Strategic Plan And Climate Adaptation The National Strategic Plan164 (NSP) is RMI’s The NAP (Figure 22) is designed to be the apex apex planning document, which provides a coordinating document for planning and roadmap for progress on national priorities in implementation across several allied policy strategic areas of social services and cultural spheres (for example, the National Sea-Level identity, economic development, infrastructure, Rise Policy), existing and envisioned sectoral environmental awareness, climate change, and programs and strategies (for example the governance. Furthermore, the NSP aligns with the Ministry of Health Climate Change and Health priorities and frameworks outlined in national Strategy) as well as government and donor policies, sectoral plans, and international funded projects and initiatives on climate agreements. change adaptation and resilience building (for example, UNDP, GEF funded, and IOM). In relation to the NSP, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) becomes the apex national planning NAP action plans to provide broad national- and implementation document on Climate level guidance on what types and character of 165 Change Adaptation and Resilience . It aligns policies, sectoral programs, and donor-funded with the NSP’s Environment, Climate Change and projects are the most salient to overall NAP Resiliency pillar. When actions are undertaken to progress and, by extension, that of the NSP. Those fulfill the NAP, the NSP’s Climate Change ambitions initiatives that will be prioritized for investment are directly fulfilled. Additionally, because of the and implementation. Figure 22 below illustrates cross-cutting nature of climate adaptation the implementation relationships between the actions, the implementation of NAP objectives NSP, NAP, and other national processes. also plays a substantial role in achieving progress on other NSP Pillars (for example, In the NSP, Pillar 2, “Environment, Climate Change Economic Development and Infrastructure), as and Resiliency,” identifies Climate Change as a well as meeting other targets at the community strategic priority along with Atoll Environment, and sectoral levels. Disaster Risk Management and Radiation. 164 The NSP 2020-2030 spans a 10-year timeframe (to be updated in 10-year cycles); sets the national vision and long-term development goals; identifies Sector Over-Arching Goals; specifies the Sectors, Strategic Areas and related Policy Objectives; provides a guide for the allocation of budget resources through the MTBIF and annual budget appropriations. Further, that ‘resilience’, in all its dimensions including, environmental, social, economic resilience, would be the foundation of the NSP and a development necessity. There is a recognition that challenges faced by RMI are not just from climate change and natural disaster hazards but also from socio-economic factors. 165 The new National Disaster Risk Management Plan in development will also play a role here. 154 Figure 22: Strategic relationships between NSP, NAP, and other national processes The NAP Implementation and Action Plans Goal 2 is to strengthen the enabling environment provided here will advance commitment to support short-, medium-, and long-term set out in the NSP to a holistic response, and adaptation activities. There are two high-level guide mainstreaming climate-related risks into outcomes to achieve the Goal: planning and budgeting. Outcome 3 is to build and sustain an ‘All- Of-Government’ commitment to national

6.1 The NAP Implementation adaptation and resilience in the short, Strategy medium, and long terms. The Overarching Goals of the RMI NAP 2023 are Outcome 4 is to build and sustain ‘All-Of- threefold (Figure 23). Society’ involvement in national adaptation and resilience in the short, medium, and long Goal 1 is to build and sustain adaptive resilience terms. across all human and ecological facets of the RMI. At least two high-level outcomes are Goal 3 is cross-cutting across Goals 1 and 2. It is required to achieve this Goal. to adapt through a self-determined approach to RMI’s heritage and its current and future Outcome 1 is sectoral resilience across key generations. To achieve it RMI will pursue: economic and social sectors of the RMI, and Outcome 5 inclusivity and fairness in all Outcome 2 is community-level resilience national decision-making around climate across all 24 inhabited atolls/islands, including adaptation. Diagram 23 below illustrates the urban, semi-urban, and rural/outer atolls. RMI’s NAP Implementation Strategy. 155 Figure 23: Hierarchy of Objectives of the NAP Implementation Strategy Action Plans have been developed to realize 6.2 Action Plans for Key Economic each of the NAP Outcomes. For Outcome 1 on and Social Sectors Sectoral Resilience, Action Plans for six key sectors have been developed – Education, Health, Climate Adaptation Action Plans are Infrastructure, Fisheries, Natural Resources and combinations of recommended options to Commerce, Internal Sector. For Outcome 2 on pursue from now to 2050. However, the most Community Resilience, the Action Plan includes attention is paid to implementation over the activities to build resilience across urban, next ten years. Generally, the tables indicate semi-urban, and rural atolls. For Outcome 3, implementation timeframes from 2024 – 2030 an ‘All-of-Government’ Action Plan comprises (these are the more urgent actions that need to several policy-strengthening, governance, happen first); 2030 – 2045 (some of these may and administrative and resource mobilization be dependent on short-term actions); and 2045 activities. For Outcome 4, an ‘All-of-Society’ and beyond (these require greater lead in time Action Plan includes activities to promote public or are not required in the interim). awareness and education, social acceptability, and political will to build climate resilience. For Tables 23-34 highlight action plans for various Outcome 5 on Inclusivity in Decision-Making, vital sectors, actors, and key players, and possible the Action Plan on gender, equality, and social Adaptive Capacity and Adaptive Barriers to their inclusion cuts across all the aforementioned implementation. Barriers to adaptation have Action Plans. For these NAP Action Plans to been identified that are general (table 23 below) achieve the expected outcomes, they must be as well as sector-specific (detailed in relevant converted into specific Implementation Plans by sections) their respective lead ministries and agencies. 156 Table 23: Cross-Sector Adaptation Barriers Potential Barriers to Adaptation 1. Agencies and organizations face funding, communication challenges, and confusing roles in climate adaptation. 2. Shortage of skilled professionals in areas related to climate change adaptation hinders development, exacerbated by the migration of qualified experts. 3. Geographical isolation of neighboring islands in the RMI makes transport of personnel and shipment of material and equipment difficult, affecting the implementation and the monitoring of adaptation activities. Limited transportation to the atolls reinforces this barrier. 4. Limited understanding of various detailed climate change impacts in the different sectors 5. Donor-funded infrastructure focuses on ‘direct’ climate change adaptation but less on activities indirectly reducing local vulnerability to climate change. Effective coordination of effort priorities with international entities is needed. 6. Limited climate change information sharing hinders long-term adaptation, with challenges like the disrupted communication across atolls. Improved record-keeping and risk data are needed for effective resilience planning. 7. Gaps in data collection – inefficient data recording and monitoring system 8. Socio-economic challenges and ad hoc community demand for immediate fixes can divert resources and hamper holistic, long-term planning climate change adaptation and resilience.

6.2.1 Action Plan for the Works, Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation Services and Communications Sectors Table 24: Action Plan for Works, Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation, and Communications Sectors. No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders W1 Revise of the NNIP to focus on 2024-2025 MWIU This action links to the climate change as a cross-cutting MTCIT cross-sector action of lens incorporated in infrastructure setting long-term levels of RMI Ports projects. service for infrastructure, Authority facilities, and services. W2 Operationalize legislative and 2024-2030 MWIU policy frameworks to incorporate a MTCIT long-term consideration of climate RMI Ports change in line with the strategic direction provided in the NAP and Authority agreed levels of service. 157 W3 Implement the NIIP, ensuring the 2026-2030 MWIU This action links to the prioritization of infrastructure work MTCIT cross-sector action of and maintenance that align with setting long-term levels of RMI Ports climate adaptation policies. service for infrastructure, Authority facilities, and services. W4 Conduct an infrastructure sector- 2024-2026 CCD specific vulnerability assessment MWIU to prioritize protection areas, MoCIA infrastructures and services, identify and plan for future service levels. W5 Establish a governance arrangement 2024-2026 CCD RMI Ports Authority for the infrastructure and services MWIU MTCIT sector to enable multi-agency Other relevant MISC partnerships and improve agencies Air Marshall Islands Inc efficiencies across donor-funded infrastructure projects. MEC MoCIA Donor agencies MOFBPS W6 Operationalize the assessment of 2026-2030 CCD the vulnerability of the potential new MWIU infrastructure for key sectors Other relevant agencies W7 Establish a Build Back Better Best 2024-2026 CCD Links to cross-sectoral Practice Guideline for rebuilding NDMO action infrastructure to be more resilient if MWIU damaged during disasters. W8 Identify, develop, and implement 2026-2040 CCD training and education programs MWIU for local people to improve their MoEST skills and capabilities to develop and maintain infrastructure and services across the RMI. W9 Launch a program to improve the 2026-2040 MWIU MoCIA communication and transport MTCIT NDMO within and between the outer atolls CCD to reduce disruptions, provide for resilience and backup systems. W10 Provide input to planning for, and 2045-2070 All infrastructure Links to cross-sectoral levels implement maintenance and and services of service action investment per the long-term levels agencies of infrastructure agreed as part of, the long-term adaptation pathways. 158 Table 25: Summary of Potential Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan for Works, Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation, and Communications Sectors Specific Barriers to Adaptation in the Infrastructure sector 1. Economic challenges in the RMI stem from limited inter-atoll connectivity, resulting in restricted access to services. Reduced voyages by MISC and high transportation costs impede market access and essential services, impacting community well-being. 2. Infrastructure is vulnerable due to environmental and resource challenges. 3. No current planning framework guides appropriate development, and the existing Planning and Zoning Act 1987 faces implementation challenges. Marshallese landowner rights may impact the adoption of certain adaptation measures on their property.

6.2.2 Action Plan for the Healthcare and Social Services Sectors Table 26: Action Plan for Healthcare and Social Services Sectors No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders H1 Continue implementing the approved 2024-2030 Ministry of Health CCD, NDMO sector climate and health strategy, aligning the strategy with the NAP sectoral action plan. H2 Implement a post-disaster recovery 2024-2026 CCD and NDMO Will require policy, including financing for quick re- Ministry of coordination establishment of priority health services Finance between (including “build back better”). MoCIA, Ministry of Health and Public Services, and be an endorsed prioritization plan. H3 Audit climate resilience of existing 2024-2026 Ministry of Health Ministry of Works, health infrastructure and program of CCD Infrastructure and upgrading. Utilities H4 Launch programs to improve 2027-2045 MTCIT MWIU accessibility to healthcare in the MWIU MoCIA neighboring atolls, including upgrading Ministry of Finance outer island health facilities so all have internet/satellite capabilities and Ports Authority include video conferencing and the wharfs to allow the MOHHS boat to dock. 159 H5 Develop and implement education 2024-2045 Ministry of Health Requires a collective programs on health and climate WUTMI approach between change – both awareness and these government CCD resilience building including all aspects Sections, MoCIA of climate change and health. Ministry of Education- PSS H6 Healthy homes program: Targeted 2024-2045 CCD MWIU at sanitation, waste disposal, water MoCIA Ministry of Finance collection and storage, and resilience to extreme temperature H7 Collect annual data of climate change 2024-2070 MOHHS Health clinics impacts on health and the impact of EPPSO MoCIA adaptation measures. CCD H8 Build capability of health staff in all 2024-2070 MOHHS In addition, see climate and health priority areas MOEST NCCHP and RAP v2 CCD MOFBPS. documents. Involve MTCIT for radio/ TV to promote health messages and recruitment drives. H9 Implement building specifications 2030-2045 MWIU Could be applied for repairs (post weather events), MOHHS across all ministries upgrades, and new buildings to CCD with public respond to climate change. infrastructure. H10 Provide input to planning for, and 2045-2070 All infrastructure Links to cross-sectoral implement maintenance and and services levels of service action investment per the long-term levels of agencies health services agreed as part of, the long-term adaptation pathways. Table 26: Summary of Adaptive Capacity and Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Health Sector Action Plan Adaptive Capacity 1. Local social networks that can be utilized for support and education. 2. Local knowledge of climate patterns and strategies to secure food and water sources. 3. Local natural health practices that improve resilience. 4. Local food growing and healthy living habits that can be enhanced. 5. Utilization of existing women’s networks and programs. 6. A climate change Division is embedded in MoHHS and budgeted for. 7. The endorsement of the national climate change and health policy and its strong alignment with the RMI NSP and the NAP. 9. Strong, practicable, and effective health disaster response systems performing well during the COVID-19 pandemic are a sound foundation for deploying adaptation actions. 160 Specific Barriers to adaptation in the Health Sector 1. The NCCHPv2, 2022 identifies: insufficient expertise and resources, including lack of dedicated staff, equipment, training, and information. Others are complicated transportation logistics for reaching outer islands and unreliable internet and electronic communications; perceived lack of political will and competing priorities; limited engagement of traditional leaders and landowners; and cultural taboos, apathy, and stigma in some cases (e.g., mental health). 2. Changed dietary practices and loss of traditional knowledge about food. 3. Poor household conditions – inadequate water sources, poor sanitation, lack of waste disposal systems, unhealthy food preparation areas, overcrowding, and inability to withstand extreme weather. 4. Limited staffing capacity and capability. This is particularly an issue given that mental health is expected to worsen with climate anxiety. 5. Gaps in data collection – migration tracking and annual population reporting, including age, gender, and health status. 6. Absence of building codes relating to new buildings and repairs of buildings with climate resilience. 7. Plans post-disaster in terms of policies and prioritization for rebuild/response – including health provisions and infrastructure. 8. Limited/no coordination of aid-funded projects to avoid duplication and maximize benefits for the Health Sector. 9. Migration and the challenges of declining populations in the outer islands, growing populations in urban centers, and loss of trained health professionals overseas. 10. Increasing migration and an urbanizing population will have less access to natural resources, traditional practices, and cultural networks that were used to adapt to weather events in the past.

6.2.3 Action Plan for the Education, Skills, and Training Sectors Table 27: Action Plan for Education, Skills, and Training Sectors No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders E1 Development of a Climate Change 2024-2026 MOEST MOHHS Adaptation Plan for the Education Sector. CCD MOFBPS MoCIA E2 Audit of climate resilience of existing 2026-2028 MWIU Ministry of Health education infrastructure and MOEST Ministry of Finance recommendations for program upgrades. CCD MoCIA E3 Building specifications for post-disaster 2025-2028 MOEST Could be applied repairs, upgrades, and new buildings to NDMO across all ministries with respond to climate change. public CCD MWIU infrastructure. 161 E4 Implementation of the Adaptation 2026-2045 MWIU Could be applied Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the MTCIT across all ministries with Education Sector , with a focus on the public upgrade of education facilities. Special infrastructure. efforts should focus on the education facilities used as shelter. E5 Revision school curriculum at all levels to 2024-2026 MOEST The curriculum will need better include climate change, its causes, CCD to be regularly updated impacts in the RMI and locally relevant with new information adaptation options E6 Training of teachers to successfully 2026-2045 MOEST Refresher training to be deliver the revised curriculum. regularly offered E7 Provide input to planning for, and 2045-2070 All infrastructure Links to cross-sectoral implement maintenance and investment and services levels of service action per the long-term levels of education agencies services agreed as part of, the long-term adaptation pathways. Table 28: Summary of Potential Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan Specific Barriers to Adaptation in the Education Sector 1. Limited or unavailable sanitation facilities at some schools. 2. Insufficient water supply during longer periods of disaster will also be affected by drought conditions exacerbated by climate change. 3. The lack of resilience of transportation systems at any time, especially during a disaster or severe weather event. 4. The limited capacity of medical personnel to aid in immediate emergencies is especially problematic if students are concentrated on certain islands during a disaster. 5. Lack of air conditioning or adaptive capacities of classrooms, especially new classrooms, with classrooms becoming too hot for classes to continue during certain times of the day or year. 6. Reliance on teachers in outer atoll islands and risk of them migrating due to climate change. 7. Teachers with limited knowledge of climate change impacts may not appropriately incorporate climate change education into school curricula and teachings.

6.2.4 Action Plan for the Fisheries Sector Table 29: Action Plan for the Fisheries Sector No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders F1 Development of a Climate Change 2024-2026 MIMRA Adaptation Plan for the Fisheries Sector, CCD based on the MIMRA Strategic Plan F2 Assessment and monitoring of the fisheries 2024-2045 MIMRA sector in the RMI economy and the EPPSO economic and social consequences of climate change on the sector . 162 F3 Monitoring, mapping and modeling of the 2024-2045 MIMRA Subregional fisheries changes in the tuna stock to inform the PNA organizations PNA countries and enable them to plan including FFA. for changes in government revenues Regional fisheries and related economic benefits from tuna Management fishing and negotiate within their respective organizations, partnerships at a regional and international including WCPFC. level to maintain the present-day benefits IATTC. F4 Monitoring, mapping and modelling 2024-2045 MIMRA of the changes in the coastal fish and invertebrates’ stock to inform the coastal fisheries management F5 Expand on MIMRA’s Fish Aggregating Device 2024-2030 MIMRA (FAD) program to improve fishing for local communities. F6 Protect and manage the customary way 2024-2030 MIMRA of handing down traditional knowledge by HPO working with the Historic Preservation Office to collect, collate, and appropriately share this knowledge. F7 Facilitate training to build capacity on the 2024-2030 MIMRA Potentially link to outer islands and atolls to monitor and local climate evaluate impacts on the coastal fisheries. change representatives on the outer atolls. F8 Expansion of the existing Reimaanlok 2024-2045 MIMRA Funding agencies community-based management program Ministry of and of the trials to expand existing Finance mariculture. F9 Retain a portion of the fisheries license 2024-2045 MIMRA Ministry of Finance revenue to establish sustainable sector management plans for RMI and reduce the risk of external aid funding support reducing or disappearing entirely. F10 Provide input to planning for, and implement 2045-2070 All infrastructure Links to cross- maintenance and investment per the long- and services sectoral levels of term levels of fisheries services agreed as service action agencies part of, the long-term adaptation pathways. Table 30: Summary of Adaptive Capacity and Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan Specific Barriers to Adaptation in the Fisheries Sector 1. MIMRA depends on other Ministries for critical infrastructure, including transportation to outer islands and communication with them. While the RMI Ports Authority manages ports in major areas, local governments handle outer island facilities, facing severe resource constraints. 2. Effective management requires robust international cooperation, but as climate change alters tuna habitats, existing agreements and relationships may be challenged, especially with some nations resisting zone-based management in favor of historical flag-based approaches. 163 3. Challenges in managing global demand, prices, and market access due to its small size and geographical remoteness. 4. Limited data on the fisheries sector’s contribution to the onshore economy, including employment in related industries and revenue from visiting vessels. 5. Decentralized organization of coastal fisheries and land tenure complexity that poses challenges for MIMRA in management, collaboration, data collection, and fisheries monitoring. 6. Population decline and internal migration to Ebeye and Majuro intensify pressures on their coastal fisheries, leading to overfishing and environmental degradation. 7. Transportation challenges to outer atolls hinder the sale of fish and potential mariculture exports, which require intact deliveries to international markets.

6.2.5 Action Plan for the Internal Affairs Sector Table 31: Action Plan for Internal Affairs Sectors No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders IN1 Development of a climate change 2024-2026 MOCIA MIMA adaptation plan for the internal affairs sector CCD IN2 Collection, update and use of sex- 2024-2030 EPPSO Link to collection disaggregated data and gender analysis MOCIA of demographic/ to inform the implementation of programs CDD migration data and projects and to ensure that resources allocated for adaptation actions benefit the MOEST cross sectoral most vulnerable groups. action IN3 Undertake capacity development on gender 2026-2045 MOCIA Training center and climate change, bringing together CCD different sectors through joint training WUTMI workshops and regional visits. Support women leaders and conduct training for prospective female councilors and mayors. IN4 Support to the development and 2024-2030 CDD MTCIT implementation of local adaptation plan CCD MoHHS for the atolls of the RMI, including capacity Registrar Division MoEST building, improved connectivity and support to the sustainability of all aspects of local MIMA governance and record keeping to increase resilience. IN5 Integrate climate change considerations 2024-2030 Administration Ministry of into budget development and resource division Finance allocation processes, prioritizing funding for climate adaptation initiatives. Introduce gender budgeting processes to track the proportion of budgets spent on women’s issues. 164 IN6 Promote public awareness campaigns on 2024-2045 MOCIA Dedicate airtime climate change, and the importance of Electoral Office and programming participation in decision-making processes. MTCIT to disseminate Develop specific programs to promote information on National Radio women’s participation. climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and community resilience. IN7 Support capacity building for local 2026-2045 CCD Link to collaboration communities in climate adaptation and NDMO with NDMO, ACWA disaster risk reduction and sustainable project and CCD to CDD practices. Identify and coordinate local identify local climate island representatives. champions on each atoll. IN8 Identify and prioritize vulnerable cultural 2024-2026 HPO Engage with heritage sites to protect and preserve CCD communities, climate change impacts and artifacts. government Develop climate change adaptation plans agencies, and for historic sites, including measures to international mitigate sea-level rise and increased coastal partners to raise erosion. awareness and secure funding for cultural heritage conservation in the face of climate change. IN9 Develop and implement programs to provide 2026-2030 MOCIA Links to cross- services to support community members, in All relevant sectoral levels of particular to improve health, mental health, agencies service action education and other services IN10 Provide input to planning for, and implement 2045-2070 All infrastructure Links to cross- maintenance and investment per the long- and services sectoral levels of term levels of services agreed as part of, the service action agencies long-term adaptation pathways. Table 32: Summary of Potential Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan for the Internal Affairs Sector Specific Barriers to Adaptation in the Internal Affairs Sector 1. The view of women only as vulnerable can hinder their potential as proactive agents of change in climate adaptation actions. 2. Cultural norms around gender-based violence hinder women’s engagement in various community activities, including climate adaptation. The normalization of such violence highlight the significant challenge in shifting attitudes towards gender equality. 3. Sociocultural norms dictate traditional gender roles, often side-lining women from decision-making despite the matriarchal land system. While women possess voting rights equal to men, cultural practices deter them from leadership roles, potentially hindering climate adaptation efforts given women’s closer understanding of climate change impacts on aspects like food security and health. 5. Reasonable climate and gender policies exist but lack thorough governance mechanisms that ensure equal participation. Men dominate political spheres, with few women in top roles, indicating potential tokenism in gender-inclusive initiatives rather than genuine commitment to change. 165 6. Climate change exacerbates food insecurity and health issues, with limited financial resources hindering adaptation to these challenges. The 2016 drought led to higher morbidity rates and decreased nutrition, particularly impacting women responsible for family nourishment, and the resulting malnutrition has generational consequences, but addressing these issues requires a multi-faceted approach beyond just the health sector, considering poverty, education, and urbanization. 7. Governance and policy challenges in climate change adaptation include fragmented government structures and a lack of interagency coordination. Additionally, the insufficient integration of climate considerations into mainstream policies and plans can hinder effective adaptation across various sectors. 8. The RMI grapples with socioeconomic challenges, such as high poverty and dependency on climate- vulnerable sectors, which intersect with climate adaptation efforts. These challenges can constrain resource allocation and the execution of adaptation measures for the most vulnerable populations. 9. Public awareness and engagement in climate adaptation is hindered by consultation fatigue, diverse project messages, and historical trauma from nuclear testing. Marshallese fear losing control over their futures. Addressing this requires multi-faceted efforts, including capacity building, improved coordination, and sustainable funding sources.

6.2.6 Action Plan for the Natural Resources and Commerce Sectors Table 33: Action Plan for Natural Resources and Commerce sectors No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders N1 Review the Republic of the Marshall Islands 2024-2026 MONRC Agriculture Sector Plan 2021 – 2031 to strengthen the climate change focus. N2 Launch technical support programs for 2026-2030 MONRC OCIT (economic drought and temperature/sea spray resilient return on crops) crops and a direct planting program for these species. N3 Expand the “climate-smart agriculture” raising 2026-2030 MONRC Coordinate campaign to include education on future awareness impacts to crops and climate-resilient crop raising with practices. MoCIA N4 Undertake a survey of coastal forests across 2024-2026 MNRC RMI, their condition, and the level of existing MICS protection. N5 Investigate specific locations where nature- 2024-2030 MNRC CCD based solutions, such as coastal forests, can MoE enhance resilience to rising sea levels/salt spray and commence. N6 Complete a tourism competitiveness study 2024-2026 OCIT EPPSO to understand activities under this sector, its (Immigration importance in the socio-economic situation data) of the RMI and how it may be impacted by climate change. 166 N7 Support the Historic Preservation Office (HPO) 2024-2030 HPO MNRC in collecting and retaining historical, cultural, OCIT and traditional knowledge on agriculture and ways of life. N8 Modernize the Copra subsidizing scheme and 2024-2045 MNRC OCIT, CCD determine plans around the length of time subsidies apply while economic practices can be established in outer islands (for example, export of coconut oil). N9 Develop and implement plans for additional 2024-2045 MNRC MWIU seawalls and other protection measures, OCIT Ministry of such as nature-based solutions, to protect CCD Finance key tourism infrastructure, such as hotels, where it aligns with service levels and long- term adaptation plans. N10 Provide input to planning for, and implement 2045-2070 All infrastructure Links to cross- maintenance and investment per the long- and services sectoral levels of term levels of agriculture services and service action agencies tourism opportunities agreed as part of, the long-term adaptation pathways. Table 34: Summary of Adaptive Capacity and Adaptive Barriers to Implementing the Action Plan for Natural Resources and Commerce Sectors Potential Adaptive Barriers Planting on outer islands is difficult because agriculture is labor intensive, and prolonged outdoors is less desirable with increasing temperatures. Transportation to the remote neighboring islands is difficult (slow and lack of shipping / too infrequent), meaning people have limited opportunities to sell their goods / grown vegetables. Aircraft only visit outer atolls generally once per week or sometimes twice for larger atolls. These services can be disrupted for various reasons, including adverse weather or maintenance. These planes also have very limited freight capacity. More agricultural production could lead to deforestation, soil erosion, and land degradation. Governance in the RMI emphasizes enhancing economic activities, especially in agriculture, to increase resilience against climate change effects. The MoNRC collaborates with other sectors, like the MoWIU and the PSS, for education on traditional practices. Yet, communication with communities about the timeframes and alignment with national adaptation pathways, especially in depopulating areas, is essential for proposed economic growth. Traditional practices may become less suitable to the changing climate and lead to lower social outcomes. Alternatives may need to be considered by communities e.g. agricultural practices; and will need to be accompanied by education and training. Similarly, climate changes may alter the survivability of important flora and fauna species, requiring consideration of introducing non-indigenous resilient species for communities to use. Internal migration to Majuro, Ebeye, and external out of RMI is risking the loss of traditional agricultural knowledge, impacting the care for domestic and traditional plants and animals across outer atolls. The decline in agricultural engagement has similarly affected the handicraft industry, which depends on natural resources from these neighboring islands. 167 The NSP 2020 highlights the economic inefficiencies stemming from government subsidies for copra, negatively impacting the copra processing industry. Addressing Tobolar’s economic viability is crucial, and while growth opportunities exist in the sector, they should be explored for food security, commercial production, and resilience- building. The NSP 2020 identifies that while there is some underutilized land in RMI, which offers potential for increased output of agricultural food crops, this is limited, and soil conditions are generally poor. Natural tropical forest ecosystems, utilized for various purposes, including wood production and agroforestry, suffer from data and information deficiencies related to biodiversity, ecological importance, and traditional management, among other aspects. It is essential to address these data gaps to consider nature-based solutions in adaptation plans.

6.3 Action Plan for Spatially committee and the development of disaster Distributed Communities plans. However, some atolls will have limited resources to implement and monitor different Table 35 lists adaptation actions that can plans at the same time. A discussion between begin immediately and the atolls and islands the local government and multiple government where these are most applicable166. Other agencies is necessary to determine the most atolls and islands would likely also benefit from relevant approach for the different types of these adaptation activities. While the actions atolls, be it a series of very focused plans or an are not ranked by priority, the implementation integrated development plan for the atoll, or any time frame reflects the urgency with which the option in between. respective action needs to be addressed. The table below shows goal 1, outcome 2 of the NAP implementation strategy. In conjunction with the NDMO, the CCD will coordinate and administer the Community Action Plan with reporting to the Ministry of Internal Affairs – Local Government Division. This approach maximizes the resources of all three organizations, relies on a combined mandate that covers much of the NAP objectives, and reduces overlaps in each organization’s investments and activities. Different committees have been established and different action plans are being developed at atoll levels, for example the Reimaanlok supports the establishment of a specific committee and the development of natural resource management plan and the NDMO supports the establishment of a disaster 166 These actions were developed through extensive consultations with atoll communities by the IOM and Melbourne University. International Organization for Migration, Jo- Jikum, Marshall Islands Conservation Society, The University of Melbourne and Women United Together Marshall Islands. 2023. “My heritage is here” : Report on Consultations with Communities in the Marshall Islands in Support of the Development of the National Adaptation Plan. International Organization for Migration: Majuro. 168 Table 35: Community Action Plan for Atolls and Islands No. Action Timeframe Sector & Lead Responsibility Atolls & Communities A1 Building on the establishment of 2024-2025 CCD, NDMO and MOCIA (Local All atolls Disaster Committees by NDMO, Government Division) establishment or extension of Atoll level committees to support the development and implementation of Community Action Plans A2 Identification on the format and 2024-2025 CCD, NDMO and MOCIA and All atolls scope of the local adaptation other relevant agencies plans (isolated or integrated with other issues), acknowledging different ones may be needed for different atoll types A3 Development of Community 2026-2028 CCD, NDMO and MOCIA (Local All atolls Action Plans including sections Government Division) on specific vulnerability and exposure and tailored adaptation pathways aligned with the national adaptation pathways A4 Implementation and monitoring 2028-2045 CCD, All atolls of the progress of the NDMO and MOCIA (Local Community Action Plans and Government Division) adaptation pathways, including monitoring the outcomes and the resulting change in vulnerability A5 Development and 2028-2045 CCD, Other relevant implementation of awareness NDMO partners for campaigns and capacity specific topics MOCIA building for community members (e.g., gender, and local governments on fisheries, etc.) climate change, its impacts and adaptation options. A6 Development and implementation of program to support sustainable and diversified livelihoods in the communities (e.g., tree planting, community gardens, marine protected areas, aquaculture, handicraft, etc.) 169 A7 Development of and support to 2028-2045 CCD, Other relevant programs to deliver sustainable, MOCIA partners for climate change proofed services specific topics Other relevant government to community members, (e.g., gender, agencies including health, education, fisheries, etc.) energy, housing, water supply, communication, transport, etc. A8 Development of and support to 2028-2045 CCD, MICS programs to improve coastal MOCIA protection and risk resilience. This NDMO includes assessment of areas at risk, piloting nature-based Other relevant government solutions, coral regeneration, agencies strengthened DRM A9 Program to support 2028-2045 CCD, Other relevant representativity and inclusivity in MOCIA partners for decision making specific topics Other relevant government (e.g., gender, agencies people with disabilities, etc.) A10 Provide input to planning for, and 2045-2070 Communities, local government, Links to cross- implement maintenance and all infrastructure sectoral levels of investment per the long-term and services service action levels of services agreed by the agencies community as part of, the long- term adaptation pathways.

6.4 A Cross-Cutting Gender Equity-Focused Action Plan Table 36: The table below corresponds to goal 3, outcome 5 of the NAP implementation strategy. This Action Plan is set according to the four components of the National Climate Change and Health Policy and Revised Action Plan for RMI: Empowerment, Evidence, Resources, and Implementation. Table 36: Interlinkages and Dependencies among Stakeholders. No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders G1 Empowerment: Actively use the NAP 2024-2030 OCS Links to NDC-P Working implementation as a springboard for MCIA Group oversight gender equality actions – noting the Links to sector action CCD strength of the existing legal and policy plans, which should framework and the weakness of its include gender implementation elements 170 G2 Empowerment: Develop and promulgate Now-2030 MCIA WUTMI Links to NDC-P Working a gender equality awareness program Group oversight. to change the current cultural Needs to start before norms and strengthen the traditional the election cooperative roles in decision-making. Include: • Establish champions to promote and enable equality • A publicity program to promote women standing for office – and a parallel program promoting women in politics voter awareness. • A campaign to counter the notion that women are vulnerable G3 Empowerment: Develop and deliver 2024-2030 MOCIA Links to NDC-P Working a family development program WUTMI Group oversight addressing a range of family issues including: • Cooperative traditions • Elimination of family and gender violence • Shared decision-making • Roles in children’s upbringing G4 Empowerment: Develop and deliver 2024-2030 MCIA Links to NDC-P Working capacity development programs on NDC-P Group oversight gender and climate change G5 Empowerment: Promote and 2024-2030 MCIA Links to NDC-P Working fund programs through WUTMI for WUTMI Group oversight women’s empowerment socially and economically – including women’s leadership G6 Evidence: Develop a situational baseline 2024-2030 MCIA of gender markers and monitor progress EPPSO against it G7 Evidence: Collect and use sex- 2024-2030 MCIA disaggregated data and gender EPPSO analysis to inform development programs and projects. Ensure resources allocated for adaptation actions benefit the most vulnerable groups G8 Evidence: Establish data storage and 2024-2030 OCS Links to Governance analysis capacity through government EPPSO Action Plan and systems to provide an understanding of Census data the RMI situation G9 Evidence: Establish strong monitoring, 2024-2030 OCS Links to TTEC oversight evaluation, and learning protocols CCD to understand progress and adjust programs 171 G10 Resources: Establish programs for 2024-2030 OCS Links to TTEC oversight training teachers across all levels in PSS gender-responsive programs, promoting gender equality and modeling these best practices G11 Resources: Review the school curriculum 2024-2030 OCS Links to TTEC oversight to promote gender equality practices PSS throughout all age groups actively G12 Resources: Establish programs to 2024-2030 PSC Links to TTEC oversight strengthen gender-responsive OCS capacities within the public sector – both in numbers and skills G13 Resources: Expand existing programs for 2024-2030 OCS Links to TTEC oversight capacity building in women’s leadership G14 Implementation: Ensure that the 2024-2030 OCS Links to TTEC oversight implementation of the NAP renforces the CCD need for gender inclusive action plans G15 Implementation: Develop other positive 2024-2030 MCIA Links to TTEC oversight programs to actively give effect to the National Gender Mainstreaming Policy and the Gender Equality Act – moving assertively to explicit action G16 Implementation: Give effect to the NSP 2024-2030 EPPSO Link to TTEC Oversight Gender Goals in all sector planning HOD’s G17 Implementation: Consider affirmative 2024-2030 OCS Link to TTEC Oversight action in government and local MCIA government elections

6.5 From Action Plans To sector-driven implementation process will be Implementation a guiding feature for each sector’s forward strategies, activities, programs, budget and The objectives of the Community Action Plans resourcing. and the Sector Action Plans go beyond mere commitment to the NAP. For lead implementation Similarly, for Community Action Plans presented partners, this commitment demands a here, the immediate next steps for lead conversion of their Action Plan into tangible implementation partners will be bridging that on-the-ground actions and results through implementation gap. Here, the next step is respective implementation planning processes. developing atoll-based Local Area Plans for These processes include, for each sector, Adaptation167 (LAPAs). These LAPAs generate setting a schedule, determining and accessing the site, community locale-specific, tailored resources, and engaging key stakeholders. Each implementation strategies for each unique 167 https://www.ids.ac.uk/download.php?file=files/dmfile/LHcasestudy03-NepalLAPA.pdf 172 atoll in the RMI168. They contain implementation to generate outcomes that tie directly back to schedules of works, targets, and resource plans NAP national-level objectives over time. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 168 The LAPA Framework focuses on incorporating the adaptation needs of local communities into their planning systems to combat climate change impacts. This framework prioritizes a bottom-up, inclusive, and adaptable approach. It employs climate vulnerability assessments to pinpoint the most at-risk municipalities and livelihoods. Centered on the needs of the people, LAPA ensures active participation and direct benefits to those most vulnerable to climate change. The creation of LAPAs is driven by a thorough process, championed by local communities and stakeholders. 173 174 Section G: NAP IMPLEMENTATION II: THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT 175 Section G: NAP IMPLEMENTATION II: THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

7.0 Introduction This Section addresses what is needed of implementation of the NAP. This requires an the enabling environment to support a self- “All-Of-Government” approach embedded determined, equitable response to the impacts within an “All-Of-Society” commitment. It has of climate change that serves the needs of all three core requirements – conducive policy segments of society. and legal foundations, effective governance and administrative structures, and the ability The RMI government, with the support of partners, to mobilize the right resources for sustainable is committed to establishing a robust enabling development. environment to facilitate comprehensive Figure 24: Elements of the ‘enabling environment” to strengthen the National Adaptation Plan

7.1 All-Of-Government Approach strategies to address complex challenges or to to Implementing Climate Adaptation achieve common goals. Instead of operating Actions in silos with each department or agency working independently on issues that may The all-of-government approach requires have interconnected components, an all-of- multiple government departments or agencies government approach promotes holistic and to coordinate their actions, resources, and integrated planning and action. 176 Departments work together to design and the public receive consistent information. implement policies, ensuring that efforts are complementary and not duplicative. They Such an approach will be necessary for the have shared goals around relevant parts of the focus and application required to address the government to rally around common objectives, complexities of issues, decision-making and ensuring that everyone is moving in the same implementation of the NAP. Table 37 at the direction; and maintain a unified message from end of this section shows an action plan for the government, ensuring that stakeholders and implementing the all-of-government approach. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific

7.1.1 Enhancing the Legal and Policy through the social community structures. Foundations Enhancing the legal and policy environment to The RMI has a strong traditional Constitution- implement the National Adaptation Plan hinges based legislative foundation that anchors on three modes of action. First, is determining if national governance. It is based on a cooperative sufficient policies currently exist to support NAP hierarchy of land ownership with traditional implementation. Policy gaps may need to be linkages supporting livelihood through the lower filled and efforts are already underway to do so, levels of the hierarchy. While the land ownership including for example, new national disaster risk hierarchy has been maintained, modern and resilience policies that acknowledge climate economic activity presents a challenge to adaptation objectives within their proposed maintaining the supporting traditional linkages mandates. Second, is determining if existing 177 policies need to be updated to accommodate 7.1.1.2 Sea-Level Rise Policy the NAP objectives. Periodic updates of national policies are always good practice and may In June 2023, the Cabinet adopted the Sea Level also occur in previously set cycles. When such Rise (SLR) Adaptation Policy (CM 098 - 2023) to periodic updates are scheduled, they must now address the complex set of issues arising from take the NAP implementation into consideration. the projected rising sea levels. With the current This will also include economic development SLR of 4 inches from the baseline around 2000 related policies. Third, where national policies are and projected to reach 20 inches between active and will sufficiently provide the support 2070 and 2100, and a staggering 6.5 feet by the NAP requires for implementation, it must 2150, proactive planning and decision-making be determined if the relevant authorities are is necessary if the impacts are to be managed. empowered enough through proper resourcing The Policy169 addresses three areas: and authority to carry out their mandates. Critical areas are noted as follows: Firstly, the technical issues of monitoring SLR and its impacts, setting planning parameters

7.1.1.1 Land Tenure and Land Rights and guides and undertaking studies on atoll protection and potential re-location of the The RMI faces unique challenges tied to its land center of government. These hinge on the tenure and property rights systems, challenges observations that 20” of SLR represents a nominal which significantly impede climate change tipping point for habitation of unprotected atolls adaptation actions. A robust understanding and that protecting the urban atolls of Majuro of the intertwined nature of land tenure, land D-U-D and Ebeye is not practicable beyond the rights, and climate adaptation is crucial 20” threshold. Also, based on the assessment for policymakers to effectively address the that the cost of this protection is expected to be impending concerns (this has been pointed out very expensive. At 20” of SLR it is assessed that more specifically in Action Plans). the cost of protecting an island within an atoll Land tenure in the RMI presents a complex would be around $300 - $500 million each. For web, with private ownership dominating the up to $2 billion up to four atoll islands could be landscape. Given the absence of public land and protected to provide for population migration the voluntary nature of land registration, there from the remaining 20 unprotected atolls. At exists a pervasive ambiguity surrounding land 6.5ft of SLR beyond 2150, one of these pieces of ownership. This uncertainty casts a shadow on land could be further protected, lifted 2m and long-term economic and adaptation planning occupied to provide 1 – 1.5 square km of land at efforts. an additional cost of $1.5 - $3 billion. Addressing this issue will require a consideration Secondly, a number of underlying issues are of the traditions that underpin the system, identified, which if not addressed will become the economics and the legal framework. barriers to adaptation action. These include This consideration is provided for in the SLR land tenure, women’s voice in adaptation Adaptation Policy as an underlying issue and is decision-making, re-allocation of rights for part of the associated Action Plan. people displaced from their land and reforms 169 RMI Sea Level Rise (SLR) Adaptation Policy, TTEC Committee, RMI Government CM 098 (2023), June 2023 178 of the public sector and the economy. They are is a plan of substantial complexity in terms of fundamental cultural and institutional issues that decisions to be made, money to be spent and will require long and complex conversations, underlying barriers to be overcome. There will be touching in some instances on constitutional a need for an adaptation implementing office and Compact-related concerns. and the location and context of its arrangements will be addressed under the Policy and its Action Third, the Policy addresses the need for an Plan being prepared for Cabinet. institutional framework to provide for the oversight and implementation of the NAP which Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific

7.1.1.3 Disaster Risk and Resilience suite to guide resilient development under the Policy umbrella of the National Strategic Plan. The new DRM Act 2023 provides for disaster and 7.1.1.4 Provision of Government climate resilience planning and a policy will be Services prepared under the Act to give effect to this. This will be through the new National Disaster Risk Section 15 of the Constitution of the RMI recognizes Management Plan which will provide for national, the right of the people to health care, education, agency and atoll level planning. This policy will and legal services and the obligation of the RMI sit alongside the SLR Policy and other expected Government to take every step reasonable and social and community policies as a coherent necessary to provide these services. 179 The 2021 census notes a population decline for casting the Planning and Zoning Act and the SLR RMI of 22% from 55,000 in 2012 to approximately Adaptation Policy calls for the development of a 43,000 in 2021. In the neighboring atolls the Planning Statement for SLR. Both documents will decline is more marked between 33% and up need to consider the land tenure issue and find to 50%. There has been migration from the some resolution if they are to be effective. neighboring atolls to the urban atolls of Majuro and Ebeye and a net migration off-shore – 7.1.1.6 Environmental Protection and notably to the US under the Compact of Free Climate Adaptation Association. The National Environmental Protection Act 1984 establishes a National Environmental Protection With levels of service for education, health, Authority (NEPA) to protect and manage the infrastructure and community services environment. The Act is subject to Title I, Article already marginal for the neighboring atolls VI of the Compact of Free Association by and it is unsustainable to maintain effective between the US and RMI governments. The NEPA levels of service to these communities and is granted powers necessary for its functions, consideration of a level of service policy including making regulations for earth moving, including consolidation of services is becoming environmental impact assessment, marine urgent. To continue with a policy of continuing water quality, pesticides and pollutants, water services with decreasing populations simply supply, solid waste, toilet facilities and sewage means the level of service provision for all disposal, and sustainable development. NEPA Marshallese will continue to decline – this at a is also responsible for formulating a Land Use time when the NAP itself is seeking an increased Scheme that provides a rational, orderly, and level of service to prepare for climate change. efficient system of acquiring, utilizing, and

7.1.1.5 Physical Planning and Coastal disposing of land and its resources to derive Conservation maximum benefits. The Planning and Zoning Act 1987 provides for NEPA may delegate any of its powers and the: planning of land and water use; promotion functions – it is not clear the extent to which of the health, safety, and general welfare of the it has done so to local government authorities people; creation of zones in municipal areas; or any other party. NEPA has wide-ranging regulation and control of building construction; responsibilities: Article 127 appears to give prevention of overcrowding of land; and matters national-level land use planning to the connected thereto. This Act is incompatible with NEPA, although its functionality is currently the traditional land tenure practice and has not undeveloped. The Land Use Scheme produced been implemented to any effective extent. Other by NEPA may include a land inventory and legislation now sits in parallel and in particular classification system and designate a range of the Protected Areas Network Act 2015. The PAN potential land utilization measures. Act is, however, focused on planning for use of local natural resources and their conservation. NEPA’s mandate extends to a system for exploitation of “aquatic resources” within The Urban Resilience Project currently being the territorial waters of the RMI, including its implemented includes a provision for re- Exclusive Economic Zone, but these do not 180 include aggregates or seabed materials. population consolidation. NEPA’s earthmoving The environmental impact assessment will regulations apply to creating new elevated be required to create new elevated atoll island settlements - all earthmoving requires an settlements and is probably necessary for Erosion and Sedimentation Control Plan. land abandonment that could arise from Table 37: An Action Plan for Strengthening the All-Of-Government Approach No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders AG1 Chief Secretary’s Office makes 2024 OCS CCD, TTEC, Cabinet a National Declaration on All- Of-Government and All-Of- Society Commitment to NAP implementation. AG2 Hold a national discourse on land 2024-2030 OCS CCD, TTEC Cabinet tenure and land rights law to accommodate NAP actions. AG3 Re-establish and implement the 2024-2030 MoWIU, Ministry of MoNRC, Landowners Planning Act for zoning designations. Environment AG4 Develop and approve the SLR Policy 2024-2030 OCS CCD, TTEC, Cabinet implementation plan. AG5 Disaster Risk and Resilience Policy 2024-2030 NDMO Local Government Division AG6 Develop a government policy on 2030-2045 MoCIA Local Government delivering critical public services Division with attention to outer atolls based on CBA criteria. AG7 Review and update the Planning 2024-2030 MoWIU Transport, Telecomm, and Zone Act and attendant Natural Resources, regulations to facilitate NAP Environment activities. AG8 Review and provide resources and 2024-2045 Ministry of support to implement the Coast Environment; NEPA Conservation Act to facilitate NAP activities. AG9 Review, update, and resource NEPA 2024-2030 Ministry of CCD strategy to mainstream climate Environment; NEPA change impacts into EIA and other regulatory processes. AG10 Establish and empower a high-level 2024-2030 OCS CCD, Cabinet NAP Oversight Board with Civic and Expert Working Groups. 181 AG11 Modernize, expand, and resource 2024-2030 OCS, Ministry of CCD a National Climate Change Office Environment from CCD as Secretariat for NAP implementation. AG12 Review and rationalize the number 2024-2030 CCD, NDMO, NDC, and mandates of disparate TTEC climate-related committees and taskforces across Ministries for more efficient coordination of efforts and limited human resources. AG13 Continue building NDA 2024-2030 , CCD, NDMO competencies in proposal administration and pipeline development, including increasing quality and quantity of proposals. AG14 Streamline and implement systems 2024-2030 MoFBPS CCD, Local and tools to allocate public Government Division financing of NAP activities through MoFBPS national budget processes. AG15 Lobby international partners to 2024-2070 Climate Envoys MoFBPS, CCD contribute to the new MIRA Trust Fund. AG16 Access Compact funding to 2024-2045 MoFBPS, CCD MoFAT, NDMO implement NAP activities, including US technical assistance. AG17 Implement public financial 2024-2030 MoFBPS CCD, EPPSO management systems and systems to coordinate donor funding records for alignment with NAP budgeting and allocations. AG18 Develop and implement a CBA- 2024-2030 EPPSO, MoFBPS CCD, NDMO based NAP project identification and selection protocol for Ministries. AG19 Strengthen and resource the data 2024-2030 EPPSO, MoFBPS CCD, NDMO management capacity, capabilities, and functionality of EPPSO to support NAP processes (data collection, analysis, M&E). AG20 Finalize the RMI position paper on 2024-2030 MoFBPS CCD Innovative Climate Finance and implement it. AG21 Organize and facilitate a discussion 2024-2026 MOCIA Non-government between NDMO, CCD, other CCD partners: IOM, Red agencies, local government and Cross, MICS NDMO other partners to identify which committees should be established Other relevant in the neighboring atolls, their agencies composition and the atoll level plans to be developed and overseen by these committees 182

7.2 Fit-For-Purpose Climate • Retain the current policy and advocacy Governance and Administration functions (local and global) of the Climate Change Division (CCD) under an appropriate The Government of the RMI is committed Ministry structure to reviewing existing governance and administrative structures to align and coordinate • Reform and reinforce the planning how to effectively deal with the multifaceted functions of the Economic Policy Planning challenges of climate adaptation. Challenges170 and Statistics Office under an appropriate to be addressed include: structure accountable to OCS ► difficulties with coordination of short and • Establish an Adaptation Implementing medium term planning and the need for Agency under an appropriate institutional focus in this area structure accountable ultimately to OCS and Cabinet ► limited public sector funding leading to competing programs across ministries • Give consideration to the formation of an and fragmented rather than coordinated expert body to guide advice within the activities institutional arrangements. ► the evolving understanding of the role of the 7.3 Mobilizing the Right Resources OCS as the head of the public service and reinforcing ministry accountabilities within Mobilizing the right resources is a linchpin for this – also as principal adviser to Cabinet successful climate adaptation. Allocating a dedicated portion of the national budget for ► the need to ensure appropriate adaptation measures can provide consistent implementing mechanisms and monitoring funding for essential initiatives, but, given the arrangements are in place to give effect to scale of the challenge in the RMI., this will not adopted policies, strategies and plans come close to meeting the demands. It will be necessary to leverage international climate Reviewing the institutional arrangements for the finance from entities such as the Green implementation of the NAP will be undertaken Climate Fund, the World Bank, and bilateral under the SLR Policy. Arrangements are subject donors to provide the RMI with both funds and to discussion but are expected to include: technical assistance. Additionally, offering • Maintain the TTEC as the Adaptation incentives and tax breaks, may also help spur Oversight body with a new committee private investments in climate adaptation. structure to represent the needs of Collaborating with neighboring countries, implementation academic institutions, and global organizations can provide insights, technical expertise, and • Reform the Ministry of Environment Act to best practices that would be invaluable for the provide an appropriate set of mechanisms RMI. Avenues for each of these are noted below. to promote and coordinate the activities of its constituent offices 170 Much of these points are further reinforced in the recently approved Sea Level Rise Policy 2023 183

7.3.1 Climate Finance iii. Global Environment Facility (GEF): The RMI will work with GEF’s implementing agencies The RMI will need to simultaneously seek the and National Focal Point to develop project most promising financing sources in the short proposals based on the NAP Action Plans. term while also exploring access to additional resources and channels in the medium- and iv. Climate Investment Funds (CIF): the RMI long term. government will work through the multilateral development banks (MDBs), including the The NAP financing and resource mobilization World Bank and Asian Development Bank will be formed through three key source areas: (ADB), that partner with CIF. (1) Assistance, provided bilaterally or through (2) regional entities, from climate finance facilities, or Given the extremely complex application and multilateral development banks are channeled management processes for grants, RMI may through either the government budget (as face challenges to apply for multiple major grants and loans), through the MIRA, or directly finance at once. It will therefore prioritize those to projects, to fund activities that can address which provide the greatest flexibility and the climate change adaptation. (3) Domestic public highest chance of success. finance is channeled through the government’s national recurrent and development and In addition, RMI will continue to advocate in subnational budgets to fund sectoral activities international forums, including the UNFCCC and and projects that can address climate change international finance discussions, to push for adaptation. This will include resources received flexible, programmatic funding mechanisms through US Compact negotiations, a portion of and streamlined application procedures in order which may be distributed towards adaptation to increase the accessibility of climate finance. needs. While initiatives such as GCF readiness funds to enhance institutional capacity on the ground (1) International climate finance sources: and support access are welcome, the experience This is carded to be the RMI’s main source of of the RMI in applying for and implementing GCF financing the NAP. Sources include bilateral projects underscores the need for a paradigm providers, multilateral climate funds, multilateral shift in the delivery of climate finance to support development banks, and other international and adaptation at the scale that will be required. regional organizations. Moreover, RMI will continue to advocate for RMI will seek support from: a greenhouse gas levy in maritime shipping, proposed by RMI and the Solomon Islands. i. The Green Climate Fund (GCF), through This could generate significant revenue for accredited entities (which in RMI include the vulnerable developing countries, including RMI. Ministry of Finance) or by the CCD, which is the Nationally Designated Authority (NDA). The RMI is also currently undertaking negotiations with the US on the Compact of Free Association. ii. Adaptation Fund: RMI will access funds The RMI government will have discretion to through direct access proposals put through spend resources from the Compact on climate its National Implementing Entity. adaptation. The amounts that can be dedicated 184 Image Supplied by PREP II Team 185 to climate adaptation will be reviewed once the for innovative finance measures such as Compact negotiations are complete. It is also debt swaps and facilitating loss and damage possible that in the next decade, the US may payments, which is particularly crucial for invest in climate adaptation of its military bases nations like RMI. abroad. The Kwajalein Base may benefit from such investment in the atoll and its communities. (3) General domestic public finance channeled The RMI government must be ready to involve through the national budget: General domestic itself in such discussions. revenues are not explicitly earmarked for climate change action. General domestic revenues (2) Regional Cooperation on Climate Finance: resources are supplemented by domestic Following a decision to draft a Regional borrowing (external grants and loans) and Climate Finance Strategy, collaborations fund the government’s national recurrent and between regional entities and global development budgets. Together, they constitute organizations like the UNFCCC Secretariat a substantial financing potential for capital and GCF have intensified. Initiatives such as investments in adaptation (e.g., to climate-proof the North Pacific office for SPREP, championed infrastructure) and recurrent activities (e.g., to by the RMI, facilitated direct communication develop and implement sectoral resilience for environmental policymaking, project policies). These resources are allocated through development, and access to climate finance. established budget processes passed annually The RMI also supports the Pacific Resilience by the Cabinet in recurrent and development Facility (PRF), a finance model that advocates budgets171. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific 171 The recurrent budget funds staff, operational expenses, and minor capital outlays for activities of national departments and agencies and provides support to local government administration and capital projects in priority sectors of each atoll. The development budget comprises one-year or multi-year public investment projects and programs, primarily in physical capital (e.g., roads) and human capital. The development budget can also provide co-financing/counterpart funding for development partner projects. 186 The new Marshall Islands Resilience and tap into larger amounts. Adaptation Trust Fund Act, 2022 (MIRA), objectives are: (1). Supporting the country’s 7.3.2 Climate Finance Administration long-term strategies to handle climate change. and Capacity Building: (2). Gathering, stimulating, and increasing Overall, mobilizing climate finance is complex financial resources exclusively for tackling these because of the technical requirements and challenges. (3). Offering a consistent flow of capacities needed to design and implement financial aid for initiatives that build climate climate change adaptation projects, the diversity resilience. (4). Boosting both government and of funding sources (national, subnational, public spending, along with contributions from international, private), and the requirements international partners. (5). Strengthening the to apply for, access, and report on the use of government’s ability to effectively plan and those funds. Financing sources and channels oversee its national strategies against climate will be pursued in a phased manner that fits change impacts. It is designed to be a single with the phasing of the NAP into immediate, port-of-call for donors seeking to support mid-term, long-term, and ongoing phases of RMI’s climate adaptation efforts, providing a implementation to efficiently utilize the capacity streamlined, single source of resources that the for accessing finance. Funds supporting capacity government can determine how to spend. The building will be prioritized in order that greater goal is to accumulate at least $20 million in the and more efficient use of available finance can fund by the end of 2026 by combining national be made over time. sources and support from international partners. The government will contribute USD 3 million for Government Coordination: The Ministry of the fund’s initial capital. Beyond this initial phase, Finance, CCD, and EPPSO (a central service the government will continue to inject funds whose mission is to support the RMI government from various sources such as: excess savings in defining, implementing, and monitoring the and resources; revenues from international National Strategic Plan will have responsibility for registries; income from any other significant coordinating the international climate financing government service; and any unexpected and the financial planning and implementation additional revenues. Besides its contributions, of the NAP. the government will also seek grants from international diplomatic and development allies. Project Identification and Selection: Based on the NAP Sectoral and Community Action Each year, the overseeing Board will finalize an Plans, responsible lead Ministries and Agencies amount that will be given to the government. will develop their own Implementation Plans This will finance crucial projects that bolster that align with the NAP (and, by extension, the climate resilience, aligning with national plans. National Strategic Plan), laying out specific To assist with budget preparations, the Board ministry-led programs, and projects to be will inform the government each year about proposed for climate financing for approval the amount available for the upcoming year. MoFBPS by a NAP Oversight Board Board Consideration will be given to using some of this whose members will include CCD as the funding as prerequisite co-financing required secretariat, the Ministry of Finance and EPPSO. by international finance agencies and donors to 187 MoFBPSA cost-benefit analysis framework Managing Climate Finance: “Strengthening (CBA) will be applied to all proposed climate of RMI’s capacity to undertake due diligence, adaptation projects for which Ministries and manage climate finance flows, ensure rigorous Agencies request climate financing. The level fiscal responsibility, and provide adequate of analysis will be determined based on several reporting from the proposal phase through to factors, including size, scope, and urgency. access and disbursement will be required. Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific

7.4 Human Capacity Building and addition, it is noted that various programs require Outsourcing local on-island skilled resources to perform local roles. For example, the NDMO has a focal point Every RMI sector suffers from skills shortages on each island atoll who reports hazards and and a lack of human resources to perform disasters such as extreme water shortages. The key roles within ministries. This is because the ACWA project also has a local representative skilled workforce is migrating from the RMI to tasked with monitoring newly established rain pursue higher-income earning positions. This storage on each atoll. Implementing the NAP skills shortage is expected to continue and be will also heavily rely on local representatives exacerbated by climate change, which may force to undertake ongoing monitoring of climate more people to leave their homes. This is a key change indicators, assist with awareness raising vulnerability and will hinder the implementation in local communities, and potentially implement of the NAP and the actions needed to provide on-island adaptation measures. There would be long-term adaptation planning within the RMI. In considerable benefit in pooling resources and 188 establishing a paid position on each island that • Capacity development within MoNRC for could support these various activities, given the addressing food security and nature-based- overlapping nature of the requirements. adaptation in the neighboring atolls

7.5 All-Of-Society Approach to • Capacity development for OCIT for Implementing Climate Adaptation economic and livelihood initiatives to run in Actions parallel with the atoll adaptation programs The Government of the RMI seeks to • Capacity development within MoWIU for provide for an ‘all-of-society’ approach to land management, coastal development implementing climate adaptation actions and project management by ensuring a ‘connected’ arrangement by • Capacity development in the PSS for which implementation of the NAP is driven and curriculum development focussed on coordinated by the Adaptation Implementing preparing the next generations for what Office effecting delivery through the sector climate change will bring and encourage ministries of the government and through the commitment to developing skills needed local governments. The following adaptation capacity development The NAP will support the deep-seated expertise would need to be provided to support this and insights that reside within local communities arrangement: and varied societal groups. By shifting towards a more connected and inclusive NAP strategy, • Capacity development of the MoCIA who we ensure that grassroots insights and local would be expected to take a major role in knowledge play a pivotal role in crafting adaptive supporting local government and gender strategies. Moreover, the onus of addressing and human rights issues and advocacy and climate change transcends governmental in community engagement duties; it is a collective endeavor that the entirety of society must shoulder. Involving every • Capacity development of Climate Change stakeholder does not only distribute responsibility Division in policy development, awareness but also infuses a deeper sense of commitment, programs and advocacy and monitoring which, in turn, leads to sustained action and results. Collaborative learning, pooling resources, • Capacity development in the OCS for policy and fostering mutual support systems further oversight and development and in national bolster climate resilience. planning Encouraging participatory decision-making, • Capacity development within OCS to drive which involves convening community meetings the underlying issues resolution and forums, ensures that residents have a direct hand in the decision-making process. • Capacity development within the MoFBPS This approach, enriched by consistent feedback, for addressing financing measures and for facilitates the evolution and refinement of financial management processes for the strategies. Concurrently, schools, community NAP implementation centers, and media outlets can become 189 instrumental in disseminating knowledge and teachers, community torchbearers, and other cultivating awareness about the impending pivotal stakeholders will be regularly conducted climate risks and necessary counteractive to supplement this. These efforts will be bolstered measures. by disseminating informational materials crafted in local dialects, ensuring accessibility The synergy of public-private partnerships and understanding (much of this is already in (PPPs) offers another avenue. By fostering the Education Sector Action Plan). collaborations between the government and the private sector, we can usher in a wave of We will also emphasize behavioral change by innovation, secure essential funding, and build relating success stories to the public. These a resilient infrastructure against the climate will chronicle those RMI ‘champions’ who have onslaught. taken successful climate adaptation actions in their homes, communities, companies, Traditional practices of the RMI people are and livelihoods. Incentive-driven programs reservoirs of wisdom. Weaving these into our will be rolled out, offering tangible rewards NAP approaches can enhance effectiveness. for communities and enterprises that exhibit Furthermore, it’s paramount to elevate innovative adaptive measures. Additionally, marginalized voices, ensuring that groups platforms will be available for open dialogues, such as women, youth, and other marginalized letting individuals share their unique adaptation communities are seen and heard, playing stories and challenges. a pivotal role in decision-making and implementation. The RMI government emphasizes public-private partnerships, so collaborative endeavors will be

7.5.1 Public Awareness, Education, sought with local and global organizations to pool and Behavioral Change technical expertise and funding. Engagements with educational bodies will be initiated for The NAP envisions an informed, empowered, collaborative research and expansive outreach. and proactive Marshallese society. Achieving The business community will not be engaged as this requires a multi-faceted approach. We will proactive change instigators. educate every individual in the RMI about the severe impacts of climate change, especially concerning our natural and cultural heritage. While nurturing conversations on climate change is essential, the goal is personal and societal behavioral change to build resilience. We want to instill changes in everyday behaviors that harmoniously align with the overarching objectives of the NAP. In parallel, we will intensify its efforts in public education. This will see the integration of specialized climate change modules into school curriculums. Training sessions tailored for 190 Table 38: An Action Plan for Empowering the All-Of-Society Approach No. Action Timeframe Responsibility Interlinkages/ Dependencies/ Stakeholders AS1 Do a stocktake of multistakeholder 2024-2030 CCD TTEC, OCS participatory processes to update as we move from NAP development under TTEC/AWG to NAP implementation in a new governance framework. AS2 Organize and implement a strategic 2024-2030 CCD Chamber of approach to increased involvement Commerce, of the private sector, faith-based churches, academic organisations and academia in the NAP institutions implementation process. AS3 Resource and fast-track implementation 2024-2030 MoCIA CCD of the national gender policy. AS4 Develop and utilize systems, tools and 2024-2045 CCD MoCIA guides to integrate gender into NAP sector and community action plans and monitor progress. AS5 Launch and sustain a NAP public 2024-2045 CCD, MoCIA Project partners awareness campaign than incorporates elements of public education and behavior change. AS6 Institute annual assessment polls or 2024-2070 EPPSO CCD surveys of the national lived experiences and opinons on NAP progress. AS7 Conduct a labor market analysis that 2024-2027 AG, Division MoEST, MoFAT, MICC will show current gaps and also future Immigration, requirements for private and public Division of Labor sector followed by an implementation and training/capacity building plan to have those skills in country starting from early age in high school and appropriate scholarships. 191 192 Section H: NAP IMPLEMENTATION III: MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK 193 Section H: NAP IMPLEMENTATION III: MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK

8.0 Introduction The monitoring and evaluation framework is is most suited to continuous evaluation and based on the Action Plans previously detailed feedback about progress along the adaptation in Sections F and G. These include the Sector, activities. Community, and Gender Action plans and those for All-of-Government and All-of-Society. These 8.1 Monitoring and Evaluation monitoring and evaluation frameworks provide Across the RMI Pathway for Survival Performance Indicators, which are starting points for responsible Ministries, and monitoring This M&E framework focuses primarily on the next and evaluation lead to further defining how to ten years of the NAP 2023, which is the first part of measure progress over time. The Performance the much longer-term RMI Adaptation Pathway Indicator links to a broader, higher-level societal outlined in Section E. In ten years, this NAP 2023 Target that ultimately symbolizes the outcome must be updated based on the experience of we want to achieve for our society. The lead the 2024-2034 period as well as updated data, ministries/ agencies are repeated as in the information, and socio-cultural context that Action plans, but an M&E lead is also included emerges and becomes apparent over the to share this function and build another level course. Before that, however, it is advised that a of performance accountability. A Baseline is midterm evaluation be done at the 5-year NAP provided that communicates an initial estimation implementation midpoint. Figure 26 shows the of whether there is enough evidence, data, or symbolic representation of the monitoring and information about the particular performance evaluation, while Tables 39 – 43 provide detailed indicator to have a comparator to expected summaries of strategies, indicators, and other progress. A timeframe for implementation is details for monitoring and evaluating outcomes again provided, and a suggested M&E frequency under Goals 2 and 3. Baseline No: There is insufficient information to form a baseline. There is some information to start developing a baseline. There is a baseline that may need to be reviewed and up dated. A suitable baseline has been established. 194 Timeframe Short (2024-2030) Short to Medium (2024-2045) Medium (2030-2045) Medium to Long (2030-2070) Long (2045 -2070 Monitoring Frequency Annually Biannually Every 3-5 years Figure 26: Symbol classifications guide to M&E tables. 195 196 Table 40: Goal 2: Build And Sustain Adaptive Resilience Outcome 1: SECTORAL RESILIENCE Sector: Infrastructure, Works, Transportation, Telecommunications Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency W1 Ministry-led 5-year NAP All projects are approved L: Works implementation plan is approved. and monitored, partly based on climate adaptation ME: Works, CCD responsiveness. W2 Legislation and policies integrate All legislation and policies L: Works ‘climate proofing’ standards, guiding the ministry have regulations, and guidelines. mainstreamed climate ME: Works, CCD, adaptation. Finance W3 Completed quantitative sector- Prioritize the most critically L: Works specific risk and vulnerability vulnerable ministry activities assessments and plans that require ME: Works, CCD, climate-proofing. Finance W4 Increased efficiency in multi- Reduced project completion L: Works agency decision-making is times and stronger multi- measurable in reduced project agency collaborations ME: Works, CCD times. W5 Increase in the number and There is a 50% increase in L: MEC capacity of renewable energy on- solar generation in the off- grid and off-grid. grid sector and national grid ME: MEC, EPPSO, CCD capacity. W6 Build Back Better Best Practice Damaged infrastructure L: Works Guideline launched. is rebuilt based on the Guidelines ME: Works, CCD W7 RMI Ports approves a Increased RMI Port efficiencies L: Works, MIMRA Modernization Investment Plan in scheduled operations. that considers climate adaptation. ME: Works, CCD W8 Number of Marshallese trained Enough trained persons L: Works, MEC and certified in critical renewable to effectively cover all energy skills areas. ministry tasks across all RMI ME: Works, CCD communities. W9 Number of Marshallese Enough trained persons L: Works, MEC trained and certified in critical to effectively cover all telecommunications skills areas. ministry tasks across all RMI ME: Works, NDMO, communities. CCD W10 The number of communities Communities that can make L: Education, Local made aware and educated about informed decisions with the Government how climate impacts their critical government about potential infrastructure services. internal migration options. ME: Local government, CCD W11 A Ministry-approved M&E for all Increased efficiency and L: Works infrastructure operations. accountability for major projects. ME: Works, EPPSO W12 Increased or value-added returns New ways to increase L: Works on investments on traditional measurable ROI on projects. projects. ME: Works, Finance, CCD W13 The ratio of capital finance to To make existing and new L: Works long-term maintenance costs. infrastructure more climate resilient in the long term. ME: Works, Finance, CCD Outcome 1: SECTORAL RESILIENCE Sector: Health Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency H1 Climate and health strategy 100% of top health priorities L: Health achieves Ministry implementation are launched milestones. ME: Health, EPPSO, CCD H2 Post-disaster recovery policy Resilience of critical national L: Health launched and funded. health infrastructure ME: Health, NDMO, CCD 197 198 H3 Audit completed for all health Recommendations of the L: Health centers audits become the basis for an improvement plan ME: Health, EPPSO, CCD H4 Increased access and ease of 100% of atoll persons requiring L: Health access to inter-island transport inter-island transport for for health services. healthcare can receive it. ME: Health, Transport, CCD H5 All outer atoll communities have a 100% of outer atoll L: Health climate and health education and communities receive awareness program. updated climate information ME: Health, useful to them. Education, CCD H6 Launch and implementation of 100% of homes receive help to L: Health the Healthy Homes program implement the program. ME: MoCIA, CCD H7 The annual database is National database of local L: Health populated accurately. area migration. ME: MoCIA, EPPSO, CCD H8 The number of recruited staff in For the health sector to L: Health critical health sector roles. become 100% staffed to meet the needs of the RMI people. ME: Health, CCD H9 The program launched for All healthcare facilities meet L: Health critical infrastructure repairs and weather resilience standards. upgrades. ME: Health, Works, CCD H10 Internet and video conferencing 100% of Outer Atoll health L: Health capabilities are installed. centers have video conferencing and internet ME: Health, Finance, capabilities. CCD Outcome 1: SECTORAL RESILIENCE Sector: Education Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency E1 Program of climate resilience 100% of schools are audited L: Education audits of schools launched. with recommendations forming an action plan. ME: Works, Finance, CCD E2 Program for repairs and sustained 100% of schools have funded L: Education maintenance of schools launched. regular maintenance schedules. ME: Works, Finance, CCD E3 Increased access and ease of 100% of atoll persons L: Education access to inter-island transport for requiring inter-island education services. transport for education can ME: Transport, receive it. MoCIA, CCD E4 A formal teacher training program 100% of schools have at L: Education initiated. least one formally trained resource teacher. ME: Education, CCD E5 School places available for all All schools meet cost-benefit L: Education needing placements. service justifications. ME: Education, Finance, CCD 199 200 Outcome 1: SECTORAL RESILIENCE Sector: Fisheries Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency F1 Survey of fisheries employment Develop a fisheries L: MIMRA and livelihood dependency livelihood dependency risk completed. management plan. ME: MIMRA, EPPSO, CCD F2 Fund and implement a major Reliable estimates of fisheries L: MIMRA Fisheries Economics Research sector economic losses Program. and gains over time due to ME: MIMRA, EPPSO, climate change. CCD F3 FAD program reaches local 100% of local communities L: MIMRA communities not yet involved. are active in the FAD program. ME: MIMRA, CCD F4 HPO formally preserves traditional Traditional knowledge is L: MIMRA, HPO knowledge. formally archived and accessible. ME: HPO F5 The number of outer atoll fishing 100% of outer atoll fishing L: MIMRA communities trained in self- communities monitor and monitoring. report to given standards. ME: MIMRA, CCD F6 Regional fisheries agreements An effective working L: MIMRA signed by RMI with Pacific partners. relationship with regional fisheries ministries and ME: MIMRA, Foreign agencies Affairs, CCD F7 Reimaanlok program expanded to 100% of atoll communities L: MIMRA all atolls. active in the Reimaanlok program. ME: MIMRA, MoCIA, CCD F8 The number of trials increased Increased national income L: MIMRA as the number of trials to from mariculture as tuna commercialization increased. fisheries potentially decline ME: MIMRA, MNRC, over time. EPPSO, CCD F9 Increased ocean transportation A reliable catch to market to L: MIMRA access from Majuro markets to processing and sale value outer atolls for the fisheries sector. chain networking all atolls. HE: MIMRA, Transport, CCD F10 Percentage increased government Reduce dependence on L: MIMRA investment in the sector from foreign aid, which may or license revenue. may not come. ME: MIMRA, Finance, CCD F11 Increased knowledge flow by Greater effectiveness in the L: MIMRA events, products, and exchanges sector through collaborative between fisheries-related knowledge sharing. ME: MIMRA, EPPSO, agencies. CCD Outcome 1: SECTORAL RESILIENCE Sector: Internal Affairs Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency IN1 New data collection surveys More effective and equitable L: MoCIA include more gendered variables resource distribution for analysis. decisions by ministry based ME: EPPSO, MoCIA, on gendered needs. CCD IN2 The number of training workshops Build sectoral capacity L: MoCIA, CCD that integrate gender aspects in across ministries and goals. agencies. ME: MoCIA, CCD IN3 Increased access to family, Increased effectiveness of L: MoCIA youth, elderly, and gender-based government-provided social services to outer atolls. services over the long term. ME: MoCIA, EPPSO, CCD 201 202 IN4 Tracking system for gender-based More efficient budget L: MoCIA budgeting launched and used. allocations to targeted vulnerable groups. ME: MoCIA, EPPSO, CCD IN5 Number of polling stations where Ensure the strength and L: MoCIA climate-proofing has been accountability of the national implemented. electoral system. ME: MoCIA, EPPSO, CCD IN6 Electorate polling questions show Elected officials recognize L: MoCIA increased interest in politicians’ the need for a climate action climate actions. platform. ME: MoCIA, EPPSO, CCD IN7 Number of female candidates for Gender equity in national L: MoCIA elected office. decision-making. ME: MoCIA, EPPSO, CCD IN8 The number of local area Local community-specific, L: MoCIA adaptation plans developed and tailored adaptation actions. launched. ME: MoCIA, NDMO, CCD IN11 Number and capacity of 100% of communities have L: MoCIA installations in vulnerable access to suitable storage communities. facilities. ME: MoCIA, NDMO, CCD IN12 Return on investment for Increased capacity of the L: MoCIA increased funding to WUTMI non-governmental sector to assist with gender-related ME: MoCIA, NDMO, programming. CCD IN13 The number of vulnerable cultural Protect the remaining cultural L: HPO sites made climate resilient. heritage of the RMI. ME: MoCIA, NDMO, CCD IN14 Increased access to participation Increase public awareness L: MoCIA of communities and content on and support for climate local climate issues. actions at the most local ME: MoCIA, NDMO, levels. CCD IN15 Increased access to family- Increase the long-term L: MoCIA oriented mental services. resilience of the traditional family unit as essential to RMI ME: MoCIA, Health, society. CCD Outcome 1: SECTORAL RESILIENCE Sector: Natural Resources and Commerce Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency N1 Technical programs launched, up Successfully introduce L: MNRC and running. climate-resilient crop varieties for the long term. ME: MNRC, CCD N2 Expand agricultural outreach Provide all farmers with L: MNRC programs to all atoll communities. climate-smart farming skills and tools. ME: MNRC, CCD N3 The coastal forest surveys Utilize coastal forests as L: MNRC completed, and protection plans nature-based barriers to are in place. assist in storm surge and SLR ME: MNRC, CCD protection. N4 Focus nature-based solutions to Utilize coastal forests as L: MNRC specific areas conducive to this nature-based barriers to practice. assist in storm surge and SLR ME: MNRC, CCD protection. N5 Tourism competitiveness Increase the share of RMI GDP L: MNRC study completed and an from the tourism sector. implementation plan drawn up. ME: MNRC, Finance, EPPSO, CCD 203 204 N6 Increase funding and capacity of HPO has the capacity L: HPO the HPO and resources to save and protect RMI historical ME: MNRC, HPO, knowledge. EPPSO, CCD N7 Modernize the copra sector and Increase the share of RMI GDP L: MNRC increase exports. from the copra sector. ME: MNRC, Finance, EPPSO, CCD N8 Identify high-risk tourism Secure tourism assets and L: MNRC infrastructure and sites for tourism potential tourism assets from investment for climate protection. climate impacts of the future. ME: MNRC, Finance, Works, CCD N9 Launch a coastal reafforestation Utilize coastal forests as L: MNRC campaign. nature-based barriers to assist in storm surge and SLR ME: MNRC, CCD protection. Table 41: Goal 2: Build And Sustain Adaptive Resilience Outcome 2: Community Climate Resilience RMI Atolls and Islands Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency A1 Price controls/ subsidies system Reduced cost of living for L: MoCIA implemented. outer atoll communities. HE: EPPSO, Finance, CCD A2 Number of trees planted Sustainable tree ecology for L: MNRC, MoCIA and sustained in each atoll long-term coastal protection, community. food security, and handicrafts. ME: MNRC, CCD A3 Community garden programs Support a viable long-term L: MNRCM MoCIA and services launched; or culture of climate-smart expanded from existing onrd. small-scale agriculture. HE: MNRC, CCD A4 Community acquisition of tools Improve the competence and L: MNRCM MoCIA and training to use them. capabilities of rural farming communities. HE: MNRC, CCD A5 Production volume from Build the aquaculture sector L: MNRCM MIMRA aquaculture. as a viable livelihood and economic contributor to RMI. HE: MNRC, MIMRA, CCD A6 Fish market up and running. Improve the fish supply value L: MNRCM MIMRA chain resilience. HE: MNRC, MIMRA, CCD A7 Marine-protected areas are Ensure an untouched marine L: MNRCM MIMRA formally assigned and protected. area for fish stock protection, nurturing and recovery. HE: MNRC, MIMRA, CCD A8 Number and capacity of Household-level water L: MNRCM, Works rainwater tanks installed. security for the long term. HE: MNRC, Works, CCD A9 Number of working reverse Household-level water L: MNRCM, Works osmosis units across the RMI and security at sanitary levels for per community. the long term. HE: MNRC, Works, CCD A10 Number and volume of potable Household-level water L: MNRCM, Works groundwater sources. security at sanitary levels for the long term. HE: MNRC, Works, CCD A11 Number of water tanks elevated Household-level water L: MNRCM, Works and protected. security at sanitary levels for the long term. HE: MNRC, Works, CCD 205 206 A12 Public database and mapping of Reduce population exposure L: Health, EPA radiation levels. to harmful radiation levels. HE: EPA, Health, CCD A13 The number of health facilities More effective delivery of L: Health, Works upgraded to standard and community health services. maintained as such. HE: Health, CCD A14 Number of medical personnel per More effective delivery of L: Health, MoCIA citizen, especially in remote atolls. community health services. HE: Health, MoCIA, CCD A15 Maternity ward built, then More effective delivery of L: Health, MoCIA expanded to meet RMI capacity community health services. needs. HE: Health, MoCIA, CCD A16 Building codes launched Increase long-term resilience L: Works, MoCIA and building inspectorate of housing to protect people. empowered. HE: Works, CCD A17 Investments in alternative Increase long-term resilience L: Works, MoCIA housing systems. of housing to protect people. HE: Works, Finance, CCD A18 Number of women and Increase the stock of L: MoCIA, Works vulnerable persons that can be community infrastructure accommodated atoll. resources for social cohesion HE: MoCIA, CCD and care. A19 Launch or strengthen programs Improve long-term resilience L: Works, Finance on road works and maintenance. of road transport and community access. HE: Works, CCD A20 Volume and types of waste are Build a robust and sanitary L: Works, Environment regularly collected. national waste disposal system. HE: Works, Environment A21 The number of houses reinforced Build resilience of housing L: Works, to standard. stock across the RMI. Environment, MoCIA HE: Works, Environment A22 Number of homes connected to Increase the long-term L: Works, sewer and water. resilience and sanitary Environment, EPA, standards of RMI housing MoCIA stock. HE: MoCIA, CCD A23 Facilities built and number of Increase access to markets L: MoCIA, MNRC vendors it can accommodate. and earnings for women. HE: MoCIA, CCD A24 Site surveys completed and Reduce coastal erosion now L: Works, Environment prioritized workplan initiated. and protect for future SLR and storm surges. HE: Environment, CCD A25 Number of successful nature- Increased use of nature- L: MNRC, Environment based pilots completed and based solutions as a viable moved to full scale. resilience-building option. HE: Environment, CCD A26 Acreage of coral reefs Increased use of nature- L: MNRC, rehabilitated. based solutions as a viable Environment, MIMRA resilience-building option; enhance a tourism product. HE: Environment, CCD A27 Number and quality of internet Build community L: Telecomm.; MoCIA and phone connections per communications resilience for household. the long term. HE: Telecomm., CCD A28 Number of trained and resourced Build community L: Telecomm.; NDMO, radio operators per atoll communications resilience for MoCIA community. the long term. HE: Telecomm., CCD 207 208 A29 Number of schools and Provide knowledge and L: Education; NDMO, community centers stocked with skills-building materials for MoCIA climate change education and community engagement. awareness materials. HE: Education, CCD A30 Launch of a national online Build education and training L: Education; MoCIA learning system. sector resilience for the long term and emergencies. HE: Education, CCD A31 Number of atoll communities that Build local-level disaster and L: NDMO have developed local disaster risk climate resilience relevant to management plans. particular atoll contexts. HE: NDMO, CCD A32 Launched health and hygiene Improve community health L: Health, MoCIA education programs. and hygiene awareness to reduce vulnerability to a HE: Health, CCD changing climate. A33 Number of households with solar Build off-grid power resilience L: MEC panels and batteries. at household and community levels. HE: MEC, CCD A34 Percentage reduction in Strengthen systems to L: MoCIA, Health domestic violence cases. manage domestic violence as climate stressors could HE: MoCIA, EPPSO, increase cases. CCD A35 Increase in fund and grant Build a national self-help L: NDMO, Finance awards from the fund. mechanism for post-disaster recovery. HE: NDMO, Finance A36 Increase in funds and number of Build a national self-help L: MoCIA, NDMO, persons aided. mechanism for post-disaster Health recovery. HE: MoCIA, CCD A37 Agreements and formal Bring equity for all citizens L: Chief Secretary declarations of resolutions made. on land rights, should long- term climate impacts force HE: Chief Secretary, migration. CCD A38 Increase in community Strengthen national channels L: CCD, MoCIA communications interactions that of formal and informal direct produce tangible actions and discourse with citizens. HE: CCD outcomes. A39 Number of LAPAs developed and Tailor adaptation solutions L: NDMO implemented. to each specific atoll’s character, needs, and HE: NDMO, CCD community preferences. A40 Number of businesses assisted by Provide climate risk alleviation L: Finance, MNRC the subsidies. to keep the business sector afloat. HE: Finance, CCD A41 Increase in cost efficiency per Make shipping of goods more L: Transport, Finance, shipping and air transport. accessible to more people MIMRA and communities. HE: Transport, CCD A42 Number of canoes built Keep traditional livelihoods L: MoCIA, MNRC and skills alive and contribute to RMI society. HE: MNRC, CCD A43 Level of satisfaction with dock Improve the efficiency of dock L: MIMRA, Works, facilities registered by users. operations and the service Transport experience received by users. HE: Transport, CCD A44 Launch an elderly special Build climate-impact resilient L: Health, Transport transport program. systems to protect the most vulnerable, like senior citizens. ME: Health, CCD 209 210 Table 42: Goal 3: Self Determination Of Our Future Outcome 5: Inclusivity in Decision-Making Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency G1 A NAP-aligned schedule of works Elevate gender and L: OCS to implement has been launched. vulnerable group actions and conversation to the highest ME: MCIA, CCD levels. G2 Number of activities and Elevate gender and L: MCIA participants involved in the vulnerable group actions and Gender Equality Awareness conversation to the highest ME: MCIA, CCD Program. levels. G3 Family Development program Elevate healthy family L: MCIA launched, and activities being structure as central to RMI implemented. society and build resilience ME: MCIA, EPPSO, CCD to future climate change challenges. G4 Baselines established and a data Make data and evidence- L: MCIA collection system established. driven decisions. ME: MCIA, EPPSO, CCD G5 Participants and audiences Societal involvement and L: MCIA reached gender and climate awareness building. change programming. ME: MCIA, EPPSO, CCD G6 Baseline established. Need a baseline to monitor L: MCIA future progress. ME: MCIA, EPPSO, CCD G7 Sex-disaggregated database is To monitor and make L: MCIA established. decisions on gender-based climate adaptation. ME: MCIA, EPPSO, CCD G8 Analytical capacity established to To monitor and make L: MCIA serve RMI government. decisions on gender-based climate adaptation. ME: MCIA, EPPSO, CCD G9 Establish an M&E system To monitor and make L: OCS alongside data collection and decisions on gender-based analysis. climate adaptation. ME: MCIA, EPPSO, CCD G10 Number of resource personnel/ To integrate gender sensitivity L: Education teachers trained in gender- as appropriate in the responsive climate education. education system. ME: Education, EPPSO, CCD G11 Number of ministries trained in To integrate gender sensitivity L: OCS the series of approved skills. as appropriate in the public service system. ME: EPPSO, CCD G12 Number of women leaders Increase women’s L: OCS certified in leadership skills. representation in public and private sector leadership ME: EPPSO, CCD ranks. G13 NSP Gender Goals achieved. To elevate gender sensitivity L: OCS across RMI society. ME: HOD, CCD 211 212 Table 43: Goal 2: Strengthen the Enabling Environment Outcome 3: All-of-government commitment to sustained climate adaptation and resilience Gender and Vulnerable Groups Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency AG1 National Declarations made. Symbolic action to signal the L: OCS highest levels of commitment and engage the national ME: CCD community. AG2 Discourse held with commitments Rationalize fair and equitable L: OCS to action made. agreements with landowners around potential movements ME: Nitjela, CCD for climate adaptation. AG3 Planning Act updated and Establish clear rules for future L: OCS, Planning entered into force. climate-resilient land-use planning. ME: Finance, CCD AG4 SLR Policy implementation plan Institutionalize SLR L: OCS, Works approved and resourced. consideration as a priority in all relevant government ME: Works, CCD decision-making. AG5 Disaster Risk AG6 Policy on critical government To develop a framework L: OCS, MoCIA, services is approved for for decision-making on the Transport, Telecom., implementation. provision of government MEC services as it becomes more challenging to do so with ME: CCD climate impacts. AG7 Implement the Coastal To support coastal hard L: Works Conservation Act infrastructure protection and NBS for SLR. HE: Works, CCD AG8 Operational alignment of EIA To ensure that the EIA process L: EPA, Environment process with NAP objectives. adequately considers climate impacts in the regulatory ME: EPA, CCD approval process. AG9 Oversight Board established and Provide a high-level L: OCS fully operational. mechanism for national accountability and ME: OCS transparency. AG10 CCD expansion strategy Coordinate all national L: OCS approved and resourced. climate activities. ME: OCS AG11 A comprehensive climate Have a national coordinated L: CCD activities coordination system is approach to climate action developed and operated through to increase effectiveness and ME: OCS, CCD CCD. efficiency. AG12 Number and value of successful Increase funding for national L: Finance, CCD, OCS proposals funded by the GCF and climate action efforts. other donors. ME: Finance, EPPSO, CCD AG13 Climate action is a major criterion Increase funding for national L: Finance, CCD, OCS for all budget allocations. climate action efforts. ME: Finance, EPPSO, CCD AG14 Increase in financing to the Trust Increase funding for national L: Finance, CCD, OCS Fund climate action efforts. ME: Finance, EPPSO, CCD AG15 Amount of Compact Funds used Increase funding for national L: Finance, CCD, OCS for climate activities. climate action efforts. ME: Finance, EPPSO, CCD AG16 Public financial management More efficient coordination L: Finance, CCD, OCS systems integrate climate and allocation of climate financing. finance. ME: Finance, EPPSO, CCD AG17 Cost-Benefit analysis procedures More efficient coordination L: Finance, CCD, OCS are in place and being used. and allocation of climate finance. ME: Finance, EPPSO, CCD 213 214 AG18 EPPSO has full functionality and Better data and reliable L: EPPSO capacity to support the NAP M&E information for evidence- requirements. based climate decision- ME: CCD, OCS making. AG19 RMI Position Paper finalized Increase funding for national L: Finance, CCD, OCS and moved to draft Policy for climate action efforts. approval. ME: Finance, EPPSO, CCD Table 44: Goal 2: Strengthen the Enabling Environment Outcome 4: All of Society Involvement in climate adaptation and resilience building. Activity Performance Indicator Target Leads/ M&E Baseline Monitoring Timeframe No. Frequency AS1 Active involvement of stakeholders Improve democratic L: OCS in participatory processes. governance traditions. ME: CCD AS2 Active involvement of targeted Bring new voices in to improve L: OCS stakeholders in participatory democratic governance processes. traditions. ME: CCD AS3 National Gender Policy Institutionalize gender-based L: OCS implemented. equality in governance processes. ME: CCD AS4 Development and use of new Operationalize gender L: OCS management tools. integration. ME: CCD AS5 Campaigns launched for public Increase public support for L: OCS awareness, education, and climate adaptation, especially behavior change. if drastic actions are needed. ME: CCD AS6 Regular polls conducted and To gauge public support for L: EPPSO, CCD results analyzed. climate actions over time. ME: CCD, EPPSO Art and Imagery The artwork and images used throughout this document have been sourced from a range of generous contributors, each offering a glimpse of the Marshall Islands and her people through a different lens. The aim has been to connect and share with the reader a unique journey through this large ocean nation, presenting many cultural, social and economic facets that influence the nations’ plan for adaptation to the impact of climate change. Special acknowledgment is given to the young artists whose works are included. The nation’s future, yours will be the generation most impacted by what lies ahead. Lean into your heritage as navigators and you will successfully steer a course along the narrow road. Page 36 Artist: Jinghui Joy Huang Title: “Our Culture, Our Pride” Description: My painting is about Marshallese culture. It is our culture and our pride. Page 41 Artist: Joenathan Defan Title: “Tomorrow” Description: This painting is about what will happen tomorrow, sea level is gonna rise up and since the water keeps rising year after year to safeguard our people and culture we would have to elevate and build things bigger or higher. Due to global warming we will have to adapt to all these changes in our environment. Page 51 Artist: Mailynn Bias Title: “The Sunken Horizon” Description: With climate change we are dealing with coastal erosion and pollution from gasses not only in the air but also in the ocean. The painting shows a sailboat using renewable energy because it is better for the environment. Using speedboats damages our environment because of the fuel they use. Page 73 Artist: Hazel Peter Title: “Cheers” Description: This painting represents our rising sea levels. As the sea level increase, I wanted the coconuts to represent our current livelihood and future. The coconut on the left (bad coconut) represents our future. It represents oil in our ocean. With no animals. The coconut on the right (good coconut) represents our current livelihood with our fresh water and beautiful land. I painted two hands to have a “cheers” with one another, so we all can help each other to save our beautiful islands. Page 92-3 Artist: Debby Schutz Title: Ijunamnam Description: To unwind from a long day of workshops and community work, the team swam the pristine waters of Aur-Tobal, being offered bob and swimming out to play ijunamnam. As the sunset dipped into the water, a school of fish flew out of the surface in such a uniform, organized pattern across the multi-colored sea and sky, mere feet away from us. We looked in awe and couldn’t contain our excitement at the beauty we just experienced. It was too perfect an experience to not capture. 215 Image Supplied by Webmedia South Pacific Republic of The Marshall Islands National Adaptation Plan 2023 218