Lebanon’s Nationally Determined Contribution - Updated 2020 Version

1. National Circumstances ........................................................................................................................ 1 2. Climate Action for Sustainable Development and a Green Economy .................................................. 2

3. Climate Action Enablers ........................................................................................................................ 3

4. Mitigation Contribution ........................................................................................................................ 5

5. Adaptation ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Impacts of Climate Change in Lebanon .................................................................................................... 7 Adaptation Priorities ................................................................................................................................. 7

6. Support Needed for NDC Implementation and Achievement ............................................................ 13 Annex I: Information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Lebanon’s mitigation part of the NDC.......................................................................................................................... 14 Executive Summary Amid the significant gap between the aggregate effect of greenhouse gas emission reductions announced in the 2015 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the emissions pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement goal, the global call for ambition should be met with an increase in climate action efforts. Moreover, the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways clearly calls for stronger mitigation measures, as well as enhanced resilience, in order to avoid catastrophic climate changes. The Republic of Lebanon is submitting an update to its 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in accordance with Article 4.9 of the Paris Agreement (and Law 115/2019) to respond to this call for enhancement and to meet the goals of the Agreement. Lebanon firmly believes in combatting the climate crisis by adopting a pathway towards sustainable development. This update comes at a time when Lebanon is facing economic, financial, monetary, and banking crises which significantly impact economic output, livelihoods, and development. Several reforms packages are under development to bring Lebanon unto a more sustainable and positive development path. Lebanon will need international support to successfully overcome the economic downturn, and to sustainably rebuild its economy and the resilience of its society. Despite its hardships, Lebanon remains committed to fighting the climate crisis. This will entail policy and fiscal reforms to enable the improvement of the energy and transport sectors through energy efficiency, the sustainable use of Lebanon’s land and water resources, the reduction of polluting practices in agriculture, waste, and industry, and enhancing the resilience of communities and infrastructure. These solutions go in tandem with Lebanon’s economic recovery and would increase revenue to the government, which are crucial steps to emerge from the current crisis. This NDC update is therefore aligned with the economic recovery effort and while providing complementary sustainable solutions to Lebanon’s challenges. Moreover, Lebanon prioritizes the consideration of the socio-economic status of the most vulnerable through a gender lens. Finally, this NDC will be achieved only if all national stakeholders (including non- state actors such as municipalities) cooperate and the international community supports Lebanon during these difficult times. The most notable updates of this 2020 NDC are: Lebanon commits to unconditionally increase its greenhouse gas emission reduction target relative to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario from 15% to 20%, and conditionally increasing its GHG emission reduction target relative to the BAU scenario from 30% to 31%. Lebanon commits to unconditionally generate 18% of its power Increase in mitigation demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 11% of its heat demand (in the ambition and transparency building sector) from renewable energy sources in 2030, compared to a combined 15% in 2015. Moreover, Lebanon conditionally commits to generate 30% of its power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 16.5% of its heat demand (in the building sector) from renewable energy sources in 2030, compared to a combined 20% in 2015. This NDC provides additional information on the mitigation targets through the guidance on Information to provide Clarity, Transparency and Understanding (ICTU) in Decision 4/CMA.1. More clarity is provided on Lebanon’s adaptation guiding principles and priorities, forming part of its adaptation communication. Increase in adaptation action Adaptation priorities include strengthening of the agricultural sector's clarity resilience, sustainable use of natural resources, developing sustainable water services, managing terrestrial and marine biodiversity, reducing vulnerability of coastal zones, ensuring public health safety and reducing disaster risk. Lebanon’s NDC targets and implementation are synchronized with the Enhance synchronization 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, as well as other related conventions to maximize efficiency and partnerships. Improve integration and The importance of a whole-of-society approach has been considered in inclusiveness this NDC by prioritizing vulnerable groups in climate action. 1

1. National Circumstances Lebanon faces an unprecedented economic, financial, monetary, and banking crisis. An accumulation of large budget deficits has significantly increased the debt-to-GDP ratio. Moreover, the Lebanese Pound has devalued, while inflation rates soared, impacting the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of Lebanese citizens. The fact that Lebanon relies on imports for most of its food and energy supplies has aggravated the situation even further. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated conditions whereby the government-imposed lockdowns that further lowered economic activity. On August 4th, 2020, an explosion occurred at the port of Beirut which damaged the Port infrastructure, and surrounding area; the cost of damage is estimated between 3.8 and 4.6 billion US Dollars1. This further sets back an already struggling economy and has halted a large area of commercial activity and essential services: the consequent physical capital losses of the blast are expected to cause an additional decline in GDP, estimated at 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points1. Since 2011, Lebanon has been dealing with a crippling humanitarian crisis due the displaced Syrian population, which has stretched an already fragile public infrastructure with demands exceeding the capacity of institutions to meet the required needs. The lack of security caused by the regional turmoil adds another layer of paralysis. Therefore, Lebanon once again considers that the achievement of its targets presumes: · The reinstatement, as soon as possible, of the prevailing national circumstances prior to the latest regional crisis, a matter considered as Lebanon’s legitimate right; · The absence of the emergence of any new crisis which could adversely affect Lebanon’s national circumstances. Lebanon is experiencing a multi-faceted crisis, which will only worsen with climatic impacts. Therefore, Lebanon’s priority for the next decade is to spur sustainable growth through the creation of decent jobs and improve the well-being of its population through welfare programmes and protection of natural resources. Consequently, the implementation of this NDC consists of inherent components in Lebanon’s economic recovery path, while reaffirming Lebanon’s commitment to the climate fight. It is under these circumstances, and in accordance with Article 4.9 of the Paris Agreement and Law 115/2019, that Lebanon presents its updated 2020 NDC, which can only be achieved through the cooperation of all national stakeholders and the invaluable support of the international community during these difficult times. 1 Beirut Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA), World Bank (2020) 1

2. Climate Action for Sustainable Development and a Green Economy Lebanon’s roadmap to macroeconomic stability amid the number of challenges it is facing will need to be green, inclusive, and conform with the leave no one behind principle. The aim is to drive sustainable, low- emission growth, as well as increase the resilience of the economy, communities and ecosystems to sustain any future shocks, including climate events. The government has put forth several plans and reforms agendas to attract foreign investments and aid to put the country on a long-term sustainable growth trajectory, including the CEDRE-CIP (Conference Economique pour le Développement par les Reformes avec les Entreprises – Capital Investment Program)2, the Lebanon Economic Vision (LEV)3 and the Government Financial Recovery Plan4. Moreover, several ministerial strategies are shifting their missions by reiterating the priority to drive sustainable economic growth. Moreover, a climate-proofing analysis of the above plans has been conducted to secure harmonization with the Paris Agreement mandate. This NDC update is synchronized with these plans and reforms and most of the proposed courses of action are already stated in endorsed ministerial strategies and plans, which together form Lebanon’s international commitment. Lebanon’s NDC, in addition to reducing national greenhouse gas emissions, will also improve air quality, enhance food security, reduce poverty and vulnerability, create job opportunities, protect the environment and green cities, and improve social welfare and boost economic growth. Moreover, in the energy sector it will increase its robustness, security, reliability, sustainability and independence, which will reduce the burden on the government budget and alleviate the fiscal deficit. Furthermore, climate action enables the move to a green and blue economy by removing barriers to clean investments and solidifying demand for greener products and services through sound economic incentives and regulation. Moving towards a green economy in Lebanon satisfies the concept of sustainable development since it aims for high human development, with a reduced ecological impact. Lebanon’s draft Low Emission Development Strategy’s (LEDS) objectives are in line with this principle, by visualizing a circular economy, enhanced research and development, and decoupled economic growth and GHG emissions. This NDC is a steppingstone to achieving the LEDS objectives in 2050. Lebanon prioritizes a just transition through the consideration of the socio-economic status of the most vulnerable, adopting a gender-responsive approach. This is in line with the Government of Lebanon’s adherence to the Secretary-General’s 2019 Climate Action Summit declaration on Social and Political drivers, which aims at “ensuring that the economic, environmental and social aspects of the transformation of economies and societies towards greater sustainability are managed in ways that maximize opportunities of decent work for all, reduce inequalities, promote social justice, and enhance country’s efforts to improve the people’s health.” 2 CEDRE – CIP (2018) (http://www.pcm.gov.lb/Admin/DynamicFile.aspx?PHName=Document&PageID=11231&published=1) 3 LEV, McKinsey (2018) (https://www.economy.gov.lb/media/11893/20181022-1228full-report-en.pdf) 4 Government Financial Recovery Plan (2020) (http://finance.gov.lb/en- us/EventPdfs/English/The%20Lebanese%20Goverment%20Financial%20Recovery%20Plan.pdf) 2

3. Climate Action Enablers and its amended version 192/2020, where the Water Code lists penalties for polluters. Finally, Measures for sustainable development and climate-proofing public and private investments climate action are most effective if based on and projects is necessary to avoid climate- robust governance mechanisms, regulations and negative projects. partnerships. Lebanon therefore views these elements as Climate Action Enablers which are CAE3: Strengthened Partnerships crucial to sustained and more ambitious actions The role of Non-State Actors (NSAs), including to achieve the NDC. Moreover, these enablers the private sector and Civil Society Organizations contribute to the achievement of numerous is primordial to implement climate action. It is Sustainable Development Goals, including SDGs therefore important to scale-up the existing 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) and 17 partnerships with NSAs to enable their increased (Partnerships for the Goals). Several enablers involvement in mitigation and adaptation below are already underway, and others have actions, as well as climate advocacy. Moreover, been prioritized for implementation. the Government of Lebanon is prioritizing the ease of doing business as depicted in its financial recovery plan, which will contribute to increased CAE1: Improved Governance and Institutional contributions from the private sector. Capacities Lebanon prioritizes climate governance as the enabling of institutions to plan, prepare and CAE4: Innovative Research and Development react to climate change. Building the needed Encouraged institutional capacities to reform, analyze, Lebanon aims to reduce the carbon intensity of coordinate and regulate climate and sustainable its economy through stimulating Research and development action is essential. This is Development for low carbon and sustainable particularly important for climate policy technologies. In addition, Lebanon needs to coherence, efficiency, integration and improve its scientific aptitude to better guide mainstreaming, which are the building blocks of decision-making. It is therefore important to effective and informed green reforms. foster an innovative environment by sustainably enhancing the capabilities of the private sector, driving large public investments for research and CAE2: Incentivized Action and Fiscal Reform piloting, partnering with academic bodies to Lebanon strives to derisk climate-relevant provide the needed readiness for investments both for the public and private transformational change, and encouraging sectors, as it is of the essence to accelerate the innovation labs. deployment of climate-friendly technologies, especially renewable energy5. Additionally, fiscal incentives and disincentives are necessary to CAE5: Comprehensive Integration operationalize the “Polluter Pays Principle” Integrated solutions to the climate crisis, as well across all relevant emitting sectors to fast-track as economic recovery, cannot be performed the shift to greener options, such as Decree without the effective inclusion of gender 167/2017 which reduces corporate tax/customs institutions, youth groups and vulnerable fees based on clean technology uptake, Article communities. Lebanon plans to revise its policy- 55 of 2018 Budget Law which provides tax making process to include these groups which exemptions for electric vehicles and tax are key to the success of the NDC and are the reductions for hybrid vehicles, and Law 77/2018 most impacted by climate impacts. 5 NY: United Nations Development Programme UNDP (2017). Lebanon: Derisking Renewable Energy Investment. New York, 3 CAE6: Enhanced Monitoring and Transparency Clarity and effectiveness of action can only be tracking the global progress of the climate fight, guaranteed through a robust monitoring and a transparency framework will be established to transparency framework, tackling climate and improve institutional arrangements, data sustainable development action, as well as availability and periodicity, as well as monitoring support. In order to enhance the impacts of and evaluation of mitigation and adaptation policymaking, and to successfully participate in projects. 4

4. Mitigation Contribution Lebanon is updating the mitigation targets included in its 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in accordance with paragraphs 9 of Article 4 of the Paris Agreement and Law 115/2019, paragraph 24 of Decision 1/CP.21 and paragraphs 5, 6 and 7 of Decision 1/CMA.2, to respond to the urgent global call for enhanced ambition in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, considering Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) in light of national circumstances, and in line with the Secretary-General’s Climate Action Summit declaration on Mitigation Strategy, which Lebanon joined in 2019. This NDC represents a progression beyond Lebanon’s 2015 NDC by unconditionally increasing its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission target relative to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario from 15% to 20%, and conditionally increasing its GHG emission target relative to the BAU scenario from 30% to 31%. Moreover, Lebanon commits to unconditionally generate 18% of the power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 11% of its heat demand (in the building sector) from renewable energy sources in 2030, compared to a combined 15% in 2015. Conditionally, Lebanon commits to generate 30% of the power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 16.5% of its heat demand (in the building sector) from renewable energy sources in 2030, compared to a combined 20% in 2015 (guided by the IRENA Renewable Energy Outlook: Lebanon6). Lebanon believes that enhanced climate ambition is needed from all countries despite climate vulnerability, as increased mitigation leads to a decrease in adaptation needs. The NDC GHG targets have been methodologically updated to reflect the national GHG inventory with the use of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the 100-year time-horizon GWP values from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Most of the proposed courses of action to implement the mitigation NDC are already alluded to in endorsed ministerial strategies and plans, as well as reports, such as the Policy Paper for Electricity sector (PPES) 2019, the 2020 National Water Sector Strategy (NWSS), the 2020 Ministry of Agriculture Strategy, the Oil and Gas Strategic Environmental Assessment, and the 2020 IRENA Renewable Energy Outlook: Lebanon, the National Cooling Plan (NCP), among others, which together form Lebanon’s international commitment. Lebanon’s GHG target is economy-wide, and includes mitigation efforts from the energy, transport, forestry, agriculture, waste and industrial sectors to achieve its NDC. Moreover, almost all planned mitigation actions have sustainable development co-benefits. The implementation of the above-mentioned Climate Action Enablers is crucial to the achievement of the targets put forward in this update. 6 IRENA Renewable Energy Outlook: Lebanon (https://www.irena.org/- /media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Jun/IRENA_Outlook_Lebanon_2020.pdf) 5 Unconditional targets 20157 Unconditional targets 20208

1. A GHG emission reduction of 20% compared to

1. A GHG emission reduction of 15% compared to the the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030, Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030 (amounting to 7,790 Gg. CO2eq.). (amounting to 6,222 Gg. CO2eq.) 2. 18% of the power demand (i.e. electricity 2. 15% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is demand) and 11% of the heat demand (in the generated by renewable energy sources. building sector) in 2030 is generated by

3. A 3% reduction in power demand through energy- renewable energy sources. efficiency measures in 2030 compared to the 3. A 3% reduction in power demand through demand under the BAU scenario. energy-efficiency measures in 2030 compared to the demand under the BAU scenario. Conditional targets 20157 Conditional targets 20209

1. A GHG emission reduction of 31% compared to

1. A GHG emission reduction of 30% compared to the the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030 (amounting to 12,075 Gg. CO2eq.). (amounting to 11,860 Gg. CO2eq.). 2. 30% of the power demand (i.e. electricity 2. 20% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is demand) and 16.5% of the heat demand (in the generated by renewable energy sources. building sector) in 2030 is generated by

3. A 10% reduction in power demand through energy- renewable energy sources. efficiency in 2030 compared to the demand under 3. A 10% reduction in power demand through the BAU scenario. energy-efficiency in 2030 compared to the demand under the BAU scenario. Lebanon will track progress and achievement of the unconditional and conditional targets listed above in its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) and onwards, contingent on adequate support. Additional information on the mitigation targets is provided in the Annex to this submission. Lebanon has used the guidance on Information to provide Clarity, Transparency and Understanding (ICTU) in Decision 4/CMA.1. 7 GHG emission reductions recalculated as per the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and AR5 GWPs. Numbers reflect rounding. 8 The unconditional mitigation scenario includes the impacts of mitigation actions which Lebanon can nationally implement, and through international support in the form of loans or other repayable instruments. 9 The conditional mitigation scenario covers the mitigation actions under the unconditional scenario, as well as further mitigation actions which can be implemented upon the provision of additional international support in the form of grants. 6

5. Adaptation Impacts of Climate Change in Lebanon Climatic changes are expected to have diverse implications on Lebanon’s environment, economy, and social conditions. Extreme weather events are and will continue to impact public health, human settlements, infrastructure, agricultural output, power supply and the economy at large. The fragile biodiversity, ecosystems, and natural habitats will be threatened by increased forest fires, pest outbreaks sea level rise, storm intensity and drought. Moreover, a decrease in snow cover, water availability, agricultural productivity, including fisheries and aquaculture, and tourism would impose heavy economic costs. Moreover, studies show that for particularly dry years, when total annual precipitation is low, overall GDP is estimated to have lost more than 60% compared to years when total precipitation reached its optimal. These effects, in turn, would lower incomes for households and businesses, reduce revenues and increase costs to the government. Therefore, adverse climate impacts will add an additional layer of challenges and sets back any improvement in the Lebanese socio-economic status. Lebanon views climate change as a threat multiplier to its current struggles which makes tackling the climate crisis a global priority, and swift adaptation a national one. Adaptation Priorities Lebanon will increase its resilience to climate change in tandem with enhancing resilience against economic shocks and other possible disasters. Therefore, Lebanon is prioritizing the synchronization of adaptation action with the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, and the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. Moreover, Lebanon acknowledges that vulnerable groups, especially women, are disproportionately impacted by climatic events, and will therefore commit to render climate adaptation action gender responsive. Below are guiding principles and sectoral adaptation priorities which, together, aim to preserve and restore the natural capital and enhance and protect the built capital, as well as livelihoods, to ensure sustainable growth and resilience to climate change. Moreover, these principles and priorities are in line with the relevant national sectoral strategies and will inform Lebanon’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP), w. Furthermore, the most relevant SDGs are listed per sectoral priority; Lebanon considers the SDGs 5 (gender equality), 13 (climate action), 16 (peace, justice and strong institutions) and 17 (partnerships for the goals) to be inherent in the successful achievement of the adaptation priorities and are therefore considered relevant to all actions. The achievement of the different adaptation priorities is highly interactive. Moreover, the implementation of the above-mentioned Climate Action Enablers is crucial to the achievement of the adaptation priorities. 7 Finally, as per paragraph 11 of Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, Law 115/2019 and paragraph 11 of Decision 9/CMA.1, the below priorities correspond to (c) National adaptation priorities, strategies, policies, plans, goals and actions of the Annex of Decision 9/CMA.1 (Further guidance in relation to the adaptation communication, including, inter alia, as a component of nationally determined contributions, referred to in Article 7, paragraphs 10 and 11, of the Paris Agreement and Law 115/2019). Therefore, the below priorities constitute part of Lebanon’s Adaptation Communication in accordance with paragraph 10 of Article 7 of the Paris Agreement and Law 115/2019. Lebanon’s adaptive capacity and resilience depend on international support in the form of finance, technology transfer, capacity-building, and technical assistance. Guiding Adaptation Principles

1. Achieve food and water security through the sustainable management of resources

2. Enhance the resilience of the infrastructure, urban and rural areas to subsist climate- related disasters

3. Ensure and protect public health, well-being and safety of all communities through climate- resilient systems

4. Incorporate Nature-Based Solutions as a first line of defense from adverse impacts of climate change

5. Combat desertification and land degradation by achieving Land Degradation Neutrality

6. Substantially reduce the risk of climate and non-climate related disasters to protect lives, the economy and physical and natural assets 8 Adaptation priorities Strengthen the agricultural sector’s resilience to enhance Lebanon’s agricultural Adaptation priority 1 output in a climate-smart manner Climate-smart agriculture includes GHG reducing measures such as managing Mitigation co-benefit(s) quantities and types of fertilizers Most relevant SDGs SDGs 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, and 15 · Restore the livelihoods and productive capacity of farmers and producers; · Increase agricultural production and productivity; · Enhance efficiency and competitiveness of agri-food value chains including fisheries; Key activities · Encourage private investment along the agri-food value chain including innovative technical solutions and improved access to climate finance and insurance; · Strengthen the enabling institutional environment; · Increase resilience of households with reference to food and nutrition security. Reference document Ministry of Agriculture’s 2020-2025 Strategy Promote the sustainable use of natural resources, restore degraded landscapes, Adaptation priority 2 and increase Lebanon’s forest cover while meeting the ecological, social and economic needs of sustainable forest management Mitigation co-benefit(s) Reforestation, afforestation and land restoration activities enhance carbon sinks Most relevant SDGs SDGs 1, 8, 12, and 15 · Achieve the goals listed in the Brummana Declaration for the Role of Mediterranean Forests to Fulfil the NDCs10; · Adapt forest systems to climate change by halting land degradation, controlling erosion of topsoil, improving water quality and soil productivity; · Establish sites with improved production capacity linking with the development of wood and non-wood forest product processing industry and with the people’s Key activities needs in terms of goods and services and improved employment opportunities; · Promote sustainable rangeland management; · Reduce the risk of intense and frequent forest fires through the development of fire prevention measures and early warning systems; · Manage pest and disease outbreaks to protect forests and forest resources. Ministry of Agriculture’s National Forest Program (NFP), National Strategy for Forest Reference document Fire Management and the National Afforestation/Reforestation Programme 40 Million Forest Trees Planting Programme (NARP) 10 https://vi-med.forestweek.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/brummana-declaration.pdf 9 Structure and develop sustainable water services, including irrigation, in order to Adaptation priority 3 improve people's living conditions Mitigation co-benefit(s) Irrigation using clean energy sources reduces GHG emissions Most relevant SDGs SDGs 1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12, 15 · Implement the Beirut Water Declaration11; · Enhance the efficient use of irrigation water and expand the supply of surface water sources for irrigation; · Encourage and support the use of renewable energy in agricultural irrigation and in drinking water supply; · Build an operational and sustainable legal and institutional framework to ensure Key activities a proper management of the water sector allowing the development of sustainable and efficient services; · Develop financing tools for the sector to set-up financial mechanisms allowing the sustainability and the financial balance of the services; · Involve all actors in the service chain and establish sustainable mechanisms for collaboration and coordination to improve the sector monitoring and transparency. Ministry of Energy and Water’s National Water Sector Strategy (NWSS) and Ministry Reference document of Agriculture’s 2020-2025 Strategy Value and sustainably manage Lebanon’s terrestrial and marine biodiversity for the preservation and conservation of its ecosystems and habitats and the species they Adaptation priority 4 harbour in order to adequately respond to anthropogenic and natural pressures and to ensure Lebanese citizens equal access to ecosystem goods and services Mitigation co-benefit(s) Biodiversity management contributes to carbon sinks and the blue economy Most relevant SDGs SDGs 2, 4, 11, 12, 14 and 15 · Identify the status of 75% of known flora and fauna species and implement conservation actions on 50% of threatened species; · Protect at least 20% of natural terrestrial and marine ecosystems and represent all types of ecosystems in the protected areas network; · Increase the total percent coverage of nature reserves to reach at least 5% of Key activities Lebanon’s area; · Sustainably manage 50% of all natural ecosystems and properly consider them in spatial planning implementation; · Alleviate the gap between Lebanon's ecological footprint and biocapacity is to reach an equal state; 11 https://www.riob.org/en/file/280436/download?token=pIghIHCp 10 · Establish effective measures to control the introduction and diffusion of non- indigenous biodiversity into the environment; · Identify vulnerable ecosystems to climate change and develop and implement appropriate adaptation plans; · Implement rehabilitation plans in at least 20% of degraded sites so that they can safeguard the sustained delivery of ecosystem services. Ministry of Environment’s National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) Reference document and the “Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Lebanon Coastal Zone” report Reduce the vulnerability of climate change impacts on coastal zones, especially in Adaptation priority 5 cities Most relevant SDGs SDGs 6, 9, 10 and 14 · Assess the sea-water intrusion in the major coastal aquifers; · Enhance the Artificial Recharge of some selected aquifers; · Refresh the water budgeting of all aquifers progressively; Key activities · Perform the modelling of the karstic, saline and porous aquifer; · Increase the protective capacity of coasts against storm surges and sea-level rise; · Promote sustainable use of natural resources, such as fisheries. Ministry of Energy and Water’s National Water Sector Strategy (NWSS) and Ministry Reference document of Agriculture 2020-2025 Strategy Adaptation priority 6 Ensure overall public health and safety through climate-resilient health systems Most relevant SDGs SDGs 3, 6, 10, and 11 · Assess the vulnerability of public health sector to climate change, identifying the current and future health effects and establishing early warning systems · Build the capacity of health sector professionals in the identification of health impacts from other sectors (e.g. transport, energy, food, water, housing and urban development; · Empower and ensure sustainability of existing environmental health functions and services to face challenges of water security for health, water quality degradation, Key activities droughts, heat waves, food security and safety, vectors redistribution, air quality degradation, floods and other climate related natural disasters; · Upgrade epidemiological surveillance to incorporate new health outcomes in the Epidemiological Surveillance Unit; · Develop a mechanism to incorporate climate data in the national health information system; · Develop health system response strategies, plans and projects and integrate them into national health strategies. Reference document The National Health and Environment Strategy 2016-2021, MoPH, WHO, 11 Reduce disaster risk and minimize damages by mitigating and adapting to climate- Adaptation priority 7 related natural hazards and extreme weather Most relevant SDGs 1, 2, 3, 9, 10 and 11 · Conduct a multi-hazard risk assessment; · Update/revisit flood, fire and drought risk maps; Key activities · Upgrade and develop an early warning platform for multi-hazards; · Coordinate the updating of the National Forest fire management strategy. 12

6. Support Needed for NDC Implementation and Achievement The NDC’s implementation depends on change. This support includes finance, capacity- adequate and predictable climate and building and technology transfer. sustainable development finance, as well as economic and political stability, and the Capacity-building of government institutions enhanced capacity of Lebanese institutions. and Non-State Actors to mitigate and adapt to climate change. More importantly, capacity- Therefore, Lebanon is working towards the building support is needed to operationalize the establishment of the Lebanon Green Climate Action Enablers which act as means of Investment Facility (LGIF) as stipulated in the implementation for climate action and Government’s Financial Recovery Plan, to sustainable development. Capacity provide climate and green finance through development for reform and recovery is of accessible and affordable finance instruments essence to put Lebanese institutions on track to for both the public and private sectors, as well as carry-out the required actions. to provide needed technical assistance to various entities to create bankable projects. The In this period of economic rebuild, technology LGIF is foreseen to substantially contribute to transfer is essential to access the best available the implementation of the NDC by increasing technologies to avoid additional GHG emissions investments to climate-friendly projects, and increase adaptive capacities. Sectors such through strong donor and investor coordination as industry, agriculture, waste, energy and mechanism and capitalization strategy. buildings could greatly benefit from technologies which enhance resource and production Moreover, Lebanon is currently developing a efficiency to encourage circular economy. climate-proofing methodology which aims to Moreover, the innovative digitalization of assess and reduce the impacts of climate- climate action is foreseen to maximize the negative projects, as well as potentially guide the efficiency and sustainability of the green evaluation of investments, through a climate- transition. lens. Ultimately, Lebanon intends to explore the possibility of greening foreign investments Lebanon plans to make its support needs clear, including Official Development Assistance (ODA) starting with the Green Climate Fund (GCF)’s to accelerate the achievement of the NDC and country programme for Lebanon. The avoid locking in carbon emissions on the long- programme plans to provide guidance for term. Finally, the consideration of investors and donors on NDC priorities, which Environmental and Social Standards (ESS), as will be in line with the planned investments for well as gender-responsiveness should be economic recovery. included in projects’ evaluation and implementation. Furthermore, the NDC Partnership Plans under development will deliver an overview of Further support is strongly needed from the sectoral enabling activities and needs for the international donor community to overcome implementation of the NDC, both for climate the many challenges Lebanon is facing, action and climate transparency. including mitigating and adapting to climate 13

Annex I: Information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Lebanon’s mitigation part of the NDC Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Lebanon 1. Lebanon commits to unconditionally reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below its Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario (amounting to 7,790 Gg. CO2eq.) and to conditionally reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 31% below its Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030 (amounting to 12,075 Gg. CO2eq.) 2. Lebanon commits to unconditionally generate 18% of its power demand(i.e. electricity demand) and 11% of its heat demand (in the building sector) by renewable energy sources and to conditionally generate 30% (i.e. electricity demand) of its power demand and 16.5% of its heat demand (in the building sector) by renewable energy sources in 2030 3. Lebanon commits to unconditionally reduce power demand through energy efficiency measures by 3% under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and to conditionally reduce power demand through energy efficiency measures by 10% under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030 Numbers reflect rounding Information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Lebanon's NDC Para Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Lebanon's NDC 1 Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year): 1. Reference point: GHG emissions level in the projected BAU scenario in 2030 2. Reference point: power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and heat demand (in the building Reference year(s), base year(s), reference sector) in the projected BAU scenario in 2030 (a) period(s) or other starting point(s) 3. Reference point: Power demand (i.e. electricity demand) in the projected BAU scenario in 2030 The BAU scenario does not take into account mitigation actions implemented after 2011. Quantifiable information on the reference 1. GHG emissions level in the projected BAU scenario in 2030: 38,950 Gg CO2eq. indicators, their values in the reference 2. Power demand (i.e. electricity demand) in the projected BAU scenario in 2030: 34,742 GWh, (b) year(s), base year(s), reference and heat demand in the building sector in the projected BAU scenario in 2030: 18 PJ period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as 3. Power demand (i.e. electricity demand) in the projected BAU scenario in 2030: 34,742 GWh applicable, in the target year For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as (c) components of nationally determined Not applicable. contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information 14 1. Target: unconditionally reduce GHG emissions by 20% below the BAU scenario (amounting to 7,790 Gg. CO2eq.) and to conditionally reduce GHG emissions by 31% below the BAU scenario (amounting to 12,075 Gg. CO2eq.) in 2030 Target relative to the reference indicator, 2. Target: unconditionally generate 18% of the power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 11% of the heat demand in the building sector by renewable energy sources and to conditionally (d) expressed numerically, for example in generate 30% of the power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 16.5% of the heat demand percentage or amount of reduction in the building sector by renewable energy sources in 2030 3. Target: unconditionally reduce power demand through energy efficiency measures by 3% under the BAU scenario and to conditionally reduce power demand through energy efficiency measures by 10% under the BAU scenario in 2030 The sources of data used to quantify the reference points consist of Lebanon’s Third National Communication (TNC)’s time series analysis, as well as information stemming from consultations Information on sources of data used in with the different concerned ministries through consultations. Moreover, information included in (e) quantifying the reference point(s) ministerial strategies as well as estimates from international organizations have been used to quantify the reference points. The BAU and mitigation scenarios were developed for all sectors using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. The GHG emissions level for the BAU scenario, unconditional and conditional targets in 2030 may Information on the circumstances under be updated and recalculated depending on methodological changes in the GHG inventory, such as (f) which the Party may update the values recalculating the GHG inventory with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines or changes in Global Warming of the reference indicators Potential (GWP) in IPCC Assessment Reports, or the adoption of the 2019 IPCC Refinement. Information on updates made will be included in the Biennial Transparency Reports (BTR). Numbers reflect rounding Time frames and/or periods for implementation: 2 Time frame and/or period for implementation, including start and end date, consistent with any further relevant Lebanon has already begun implementing the actions and activities needed to meet this (a) decision adopted by the Conference of the commitment. It will continue to do so until 2030. Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) Whether it is a single-year or multi-year (b) Single-year target in 2030 target, as applicable 15 3 Scope and coverage: (a) General description of the target Please refer to 1 (d) above. Lebanon’s NDC is an economy wide absolute GHG emissions target. Information provided in Lebanon's inventory as part of its Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) will be consistent with the IPCC guidelines. Sectors Energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, forestry and land-use, and waste. Gases Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). by the nationally determined contribution, (b) including, as applicable, consistent with The inclusion of perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) will be added to the NDC coverage once (IPCC) guidelines included in Lebanon’s GHG inventory. For agriculture, forestry and land-use, emissions and removals the following reporting categories are included: forest land, cropland, grassland, and wetland (wetland remaining wetland only from 2026), including land use changes between the categories, and between these categories and settlements and other land. The five carbon pools above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, litter, dead wood and soil organic matters are included. In addition, the carbon pool harvested wood products is included. Lebanon's inventory describes the sources considered insignificant and reported as not estimated. How the Party has taken into consideration (c) A similar approach, consistent with decision 18/CMA.1, will be used for reporting under the Paris paragraph 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21 Agreement. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, (d) including description of specific Not applicable. projects, measures and initiatives of Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans 16 4 Planning processes: Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its nationally determined contribution and, if available, on the (a) Party’s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: The NDC update has gone through an inter-ministerial validation process to ensure the unification of views on the way forward for Lebanon in the next 10 years. 1. Meetings with sectoral mitigation experts from line ministries were conducted to assess where additional ambition in the NDC could be allocated. 2. An adaptation expert meeting comprising ministerial experts, academia and technical consultants was conducted to assess the enhanced adaptation targets, and Domestic institutional arrangements, their appropriateness considering Lebanon’s special circumstances. public participation and engagement with 3. A Non-State Actors (NSA) consultation meeting which included academic experts, (i) local communities and indigenous peoples, youth, the private sector and civil society organizations was also organized to ensure in a gender-responsive manner their participation in defining the 2020 NDC update. 4. Gender representatives were engaged in the different consultation meetings. 5. Finally, the results were presented to the official inter-ministerial NDC committee, headed by the Ministry of Environment. Once feedback was received, the NDC was sent to the Council of Ministers for official approval. The NDC implementation process is coordinated by the Ministry of Environment and the implementation of the numerous sectoral policies is the responsibility of the line ministries. (ii) Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate: Please refer to National circumstances, such as 1. Section 1 of this NDC: National Circumstances geography, climate, economy, 2. Part I of Lebanon’s Third Biennial Update Report (BUR3) submitted to the UNFCCC in a. sustainable development and poverty October 2019. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/LEBANON- eradication %20Third%20Biennial%20Update%20Report%202019.pdf 1. The implementation of Lebanon’s NDC, as well as the development of the Low- Best practices and experience related to the Emission Development Strategy (LEDS), has been mandated by the official economic b. preparation of the nationally determined recovery plan of Lebanon, prioritizing climate action in the reform process. contribution Therefore, the integration of the NDC into higher-level governmentally endorsed 17 plan enhances climate action. 2. This NDC highlights the important linkages between climate action and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Lebanon assessed the relationship between the sectoral adaptation and mitigation policies and the 169 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) sub-targets which resulted in numerous synergies in implementation and tracking. This exercise contributes to fully synchronizing the planning of climate action and sustainable development, which is made clear in this NDC. Agriculture http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=281 Forestry http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=285 Energy http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=282 Renewable Energy http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=288 Energy Efficiency http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=284 Solid Waste http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=290 Solid Waste NAMA http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=289 Public Transport http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=287 Private Transport http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=286 Water http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=292 Biodiversity http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=283 Industry http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/viewfile.aspx?id=291 3. Lebanon thoroughly assessed the extent of gender-responsiveness in its climate- related policies through a gender analysis. A set of recommendations for gender integration into strategies, including the NDC was produced to ensure that climate action is implemented through a gender lens. This NDC strives to fully integrate gender in order to enhance implementation and consider vulnerable groups. Other contextual aspirations and c. priorities acknowledged when joining Not applicable. the Paris Agreement 18 Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act (b) jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Not applicable. Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16–18, of the Paris Agreement How the Party’s preparation of its nationally determined contribution has The first global stocktake is to take place in 2023. Lebanon participated in the Talanoa Dialogue in been informed by the outcomes of the 2018 where it committed to enhance the ambition of its NDC and welcomed the IPCC special (c) global stocktake, in accordance with report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris greenhouse gas emission pathways. Agreement Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent (d) with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on: How the economic and social consequences of response measures have Not applicable. been considered in developing the (i) nationally determined contribution Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to (ii) mitigation co-benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co- benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water 19 resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions 5 and, as appropriate, removals: Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions Lebanon is accounting for its anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals using the 2006 and removals corresponding to the Party’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (a) nationally determined contribution, Inventories, and 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas consistent with decision 1/CP.21, Inventories: Wetlands (collectively, the “2006 IPCC Guidelines”). paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the See 5(a) above. Lebanon will also apply specific assumptions and methodologies, where relevant, (b) implementation of policies and measures when accounting for progress of various policies and measures in its Biennial Update Report or or strategies in the nationally determined Biennial Transparency Report. contribution If applicable, information on how the Party will take into account existing methods and guidance under the (c) Convention to account for anthropogenic See 5(a) above. emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate IPCC methodologies and metrics used for The IPCC 2006 guidelines and parts of IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement is being used for estimating (d) estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas GHG emissions and removals. Global warming potentials (GWP) for a 100-year time horizon from the emissions and removals IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is being used to calculate CO2 equivalents. 20 Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as (e) applicable: Approach to addressing emissions and GHG emissions and removals from natural disturbances, if any, will be accounted for in accordance (i) subsequent removals from natural with the prescribed 2006 IPCC Guidelines. disturbances on managed lands Approach used to account for emissions GHG emissions and removals from harvested wood products, if any, will be accounted for in (ii) and removals from harvested wood accordance with the prescribed 2006 IPCC Guidelines. products Approach used to address the effects of (iii) Not applicable. age-class structure in forests Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating (f) corresponding emissions and removals, including: 1. To quantify the GHG emissions level in the projected BAU scenario in 2030, the following assumptions were made for emission growth drivers: Population growth was estimated to be 1.65% annually till 2030, based on World Bank estimates. Moreover, when it comes to energy emissions, it was assumed that electricity demand will How the reference indicators, baseline(s) increase by 3.5% annually and that electricity demand which cannot be satisfied by the and/or reference level(s), including, where installed generation capacity, continues to be largely satisfied through private diesel applicable, sector-, category- or activity- generators. Also, in the BAU scenario, electricity production is decreasing by 1.3% per year (i) specific reference levels, are constructed, due to the degradation of power plants. Finally, exploration activities in the offshore oil and including, for example, key parameters, gas sector has started in 2020 with the drilling of the first deep water well. However assumptions, definitions, methodologies, emission-intensive production and development operations are not expected to start before data sources and models used 2028, potentially contributing to the increase in GHG emissions level. For transport emissions, it was assumed that the fleet will be increasing by 3% annually. As for agriculture, emissions remain stable in the BAU scenario. As for forestry, due to an increase in deforestation, increase in forest fires and urban sprawl, the LULUCF sink is limited at a rate of 1% per year. Both the agriculture and forestry assumptions were made based on the time series analysis. As for waste emissions, generation is estimated to increase with population growth and with waste generation per capita increasing from 1.05 to 1.30 kg/capita/day. 21 Finally, industrial emissions are estimated to increase by 2.5% annually. 2. To quantify the reference point, the following assumptions were made for heat and power demand (i.e. electricity demand) growth: ● Heat demand: heat demand has been considered only for the building sector based on data availability. ● Power demand: Electricity demand increases by 3.5% annually; the electricity demand which cannot be satisfied by the installed generation capacity, continues to be largely met through private diesel generators. 3. To quantify the reference point, the following assumptions were made for power demand (i.e. electricity demand) growth: Electricity demand increases by 3.5% annually; the electricity demand which cannot be satisfied by the installed generation capacity, continues to be largely met through private diesel generators. For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non greenhouse-gas (ii) components, information on Not applicable. assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by (iii) IPCC guidelines, information on how the Not applicable. climate forcers are estimated Further technical information, as (iv) Not applicable. necessary The intention to use voluntary cooperation While at present, the use of Article 6 mechanisms is not envisaged, Lebanon does not exclude the (g) under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if possibility of making use of international market mechanisms to achieve its NDC targets. applicable 22 6 How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances: How the Party considers that its Considering Lebanon’s difficult national circumstances and its regional context as depicted in the nationally determined contribution is national circumstances in this NDC, as well as its low share in global emissions, Lebanon therefore (a) fair and ambitious in the light of its considers the targets put forward in this update as fair and ambitious. national circumstances Moreover, Lebanon applied the ICTU guidance to this 2020 NDC in order to enhance its clarity, transparency and understanding. Fairness considerations, including (b) reflecting on equity The NDC GHG targets have been methodologically updated to reflect the national GHG inventory with the use of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the 100-year time-horizon GWP values from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. This NDC represents a progression beyond Lebanon’s 2015 NDC by unconditionally increasing its GHG emission target relative to the BAU scenario from 15% to 20%, and conditionally increasing its GHG emission target relative to the BAU scenario from 30% to 31%. Moreover, Lebanon commits to unconditionally generate 18% of the power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 11% of its heat demand in the building sector from renewable energy sources in 2030, compared to a combined 15% in 2015. Conditionally, Lebanon commits to generate 30% of the power demand (i.e. electricity demand) and 16.5% of its heat demand in the building sector from renewable energy sources in 2030, compared to a combined 20% in 2015. The BAU level in 2030 changed due to the use of the IPCC 2006 guidelines as opposed to the 1996 How the Party has addressed Article 4, Revised IPCC Guidelines used in the 2015 NDC, adding 0.97 percentage points to the 15% 2015 (c) paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement unconditional target, and adding 0.45 percentage points to the 30% 2015 conditional target. Despite this change, the 2020 NDC targets have increased to reach 20% unconditionally and 31% conditionally, due to increased mitigation effort. NDC 2015 NDC 2020 1996 IPCC Revised 2006 IPCC Guidelines 2006 IPCC Guidelines Guidelines BAU Level in 2030 43,484 Gg CO2eq. 38,950 Gg CO2eq. 38,950 Gg CO2eq. Unconditional reduction 6,523 Gg CO2eq. 6,222 Gg CO2eq. 7,790 Gg CO2eq. in 2030 23 Conditional reduction in 13,045 Gg CO2eq. 11,860 GgCO2eq. 12,075 Gg CO2eq. 2030 Lebanon’s 2020 NDC target pertaining to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below its How the Party has addressed Article 4, (d) Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and to conditionally reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 31% paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement below its Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, is an economy-wide target. How the Party has addressed Article 4, (e) Not applicable. paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement 7 How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2: How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards (a) achieving the objective of the Lebanon’s 2020 NDC contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in Convention as set out in its Article 2 its Article 2, the objective of the Paris Agreement as set out in its Article 2, and Article 4, How the nationally determined paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement through enhancing its mitigation efforts as per 6(c) above, contribution contributes towards Article 2, therefore reducing GHG emissions further and accelerating the energy transition. (b) paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement 24