Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

1. The need to include adaptation in For the Kyrgyz Republic, a mountainous country that has a contribution high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, the implementation of adaptation actions is vital1.

2. The most vulnerable sectors and Sector Losses2, mln $2005 expected economic losses in Water resources 718 absence of adaptation actions Agriculture 70 Energy 200 Emergencies 38 Healthcare 110 Forest and Biodiversity 94.80 Total: 1230.80 The current assessment of economic losses is the lower bound, as a result of the specific national assessment methods. The revision of the methods is envisioned. Reduction of economic losses in the hydro energy sector will be reached through mitigation actions.

3. Adaptation target To prevent the climate change related damage and losses in the country.

4. Resources required to reduce calculated losses, mln. $ 2005 4.1. Domestic costs3 213.40 4.2. International support 1592.10 4.3. Total 1937.50

5. Reduced economic losses, mln. $ 2005 5.1. Through domestic activities 135.60 5.2. Through international support 1011.40 5.3. Total 1230.80

6. Monitoring and reporting The monitoring over implementation of the adaptation contribution will be combined with a process of regular updating of the national priorities and sectorial adaptation programs and action plans. Preparation of the updated programs and plans will be based on assessments of the earlier adaptation plans’ outcomes. 1 Priority Directions for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kyrgyz Republic till 2017, sectorial Action Plans on adaptation to climate change in the Kyrgyz Republic, www.nature.gov.kg, www.climatechange.kg 2 Annual losses under the temperature increase by 50C relatively 1961-1990 level. 3 Domestic costs hereinafter refer to resources within the funds allocated to ministries and institutions for the relevant year. 2 Contribution to mitigation

1. Long term GHG Limiting the per capita GHG emissions to maximum of 1.23 t/CO2, or 1.58 emissions target t/CO2 in 2050 to achieve the below 2°C objective, with a probability of 66% and 50% respectively. Based on the IPCC and IEA developments in the context of the below 2°C objective, the target is communicated in CO2. For INDC monitoring, emission of other GHGs was accounted in CO2-eq (shown in Section 12).

2. Time frame January 1, 2020 - December 31, 2030, and 2050

3. Contribution Kyrgyz Republic will reduce GHG emissions in the range of 11.49 - 13.75% below BAU in 2030. Additionally, under the international support Kyrgyz Republic could implement the mitigation measures to achieve total reduction in the range of 29.00 - 30.89% below BAU in 2030. Kyrgyz Republic will reduce GHG emissions in the range of 12.67 - 15.69% below BAU in 2050. Additionally, under the international support Kyrgyz Republic could implement the mitigation measures to achieve total reduction in the range of 35.06 - 36.75% below BAU in 2050.

4. Base year Not used to determine the targets as they are indicated in per capita GHG emission. 2010 is taken for the emissions modeling.

5. Scope • Energy • Industrial processes, solvents and other product use • Agriculture • Land use, land use change and forestry • Waste

6. Greenhouse gases Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)

7. Methodological Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories approaches for accounting of anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals

8. Metric (GWP Carbon dioxide - 1 values) Methane - 21 Nitrous oxide - 310 HFC-134a - 1300 Other GHGs emissions not relevant. 3

9. Methodology and Model - SHAKYR (development of the Climate Change Centre of the assumptions for Kyrgyz Republic). modeling emission To assess the potential mitigation actions to achieve the long term GHG scenarios (baseline emissions target, the following scenarios were developed: and mitigation  Scenario 1: Low population growth - high economic growth; measures)  Scenario 2: Average population growth - average economic growth;  Scenario 3: High population growth - low economic growth. The following estimates of population for 2050 (in thousands): Scenario 1 - 6872; Scenario 2 - 7975; Scenario 3 - 9170. Figure below provides a graphical illustration of per capita emissions for the three scenarios. 3 т СО2/pc Scenario 1 2,5 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 2 1,58 т СО2/pc 1,5 1,23 т СО2/pc 1 0,5 0 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

10. Expected GHG emissions reduction and resources required for mitigation to 2100, mln. $2005 Total Domestic efforts International Support Resources GHG Resources GHG Resources GHG reduction cumulative reduction cumulative reduction cumulative annual ($2005, in annual ($2005, in annual ($2005, in (CO2 Gg) millions) (CO2 Gg) millions) (CO2 Gg) millions) Scenario 1 1960 7403 733 2865 1227 4548 Scenario 2 1630 5635 568 2070 1062 3575 Scenario 3 1867 4463 686 2247 1181 2226

11. GHG emissions reduction as % below BAU scenario 2020 2030 2050 2100 Scenario 1 Domestic efforts 12,22 13,75 15,69 15,06 International support 13,14 17,04 21,06 23,91 Total 25,36 30,89 36,75 38,92 Scenario 2 Domestic efforts 11,58 13,29 13,98 16,28 International support 12,70 16,66 22,53 28,12 Total 24,27 29,96 36,51 44,31 Scenario 3 Domestic efforts 11,09 11,49 12,67 20,98 International support 12,76 17,51 21,98 20,78 Total 23,86 29,00 35,06 41,66 4

12. GHG emissions reduction 12.1. GHG emissions reduction through domestic efforts and international support for Scenario 1 12.2. GHG emissions reduction through domestic efforts and international support for Scenario 2 12.3. GHG emissions reduction through domestic efforts and international support for Scenario 3

13. Monitoring and reporting Monitoring over implementation of the mitigation contribution will be combined with a process of regular updating of the national mitigation priorities, programs and action plans. Preparation of the updated programs and plans will be based on assessments of the earlier mitigation measures’ implementation. The domestic MRV system will be developed and established as a basis for monitoring and reporting of the mitigation actions. Reporting will also be carried out in the frames of the national communications on climate change and biennial update reports. 5

14. Fairness and ambition GHG emissions of the Kyrgyz Republic are small. In 2010, the share of the Republic in global GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion was 0.023%. Per capita GHG emissions of the Kyrgyz Republic are less than one-third of the world average. The low emissions of Kyrgyz Republic are largely because 90% of the total electricity generation is supplied by the hydroelectric power plants. However, the expected climate change impacts will decrease the water flow after the 30s and, consequently, reduce the hydropower resources potential. As a result, even with an annual GDP growth of 4%, the electricity demand for Kyrgyzstan's economy would be much more that can be met through the hydropower capacities. The Kyrgyz Republic is a lower middle income country with 637.3 pc income, compared to global average per capita income of 8054.6 (2014, $2005). To meet its development needs the economy is expected to grow and so will do the GHG emissions. The increase in GHG emissions is expected to be much faster than in the developed countries. Despite this, the long term vision of the Kyrgyz Republic is to limit the per capita GHG emissions to a very low level of 1.58 t CO2 in line with 20C objective. Hence, the ambition and fairness of the national efforts, submitted in the INDC, is evident and equitable in the face of a sharp growth of the country's economic level. 6