National Water Resources Plan – Framework Plan

IW /F F /L D B /0 1 1 5 National Water Resources Plan – Framework Plan Irish Water’s 25 Year Plan for Our Water Assets Spring 2021 ii | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Data Disclaimer: This document uses best available data at time of writing. As data relating to population forecasts and trends are based on information gathered before the Covid 19 Pandemic, monitoring and feedback will be used to capture any updates. The National Water Resources Plan will also align to relevant updates in applicable policy. iii | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................. III TECHNICAL APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................. V 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 WHO WE ARE ........................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 WHAT IS THE NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLAN ................................................................................................ 3 1.4 WATER SUPPLY IN IRELAND ................................................................................................................................... 4 1.5 PROGRESS TO DATE .............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.5.1 Water Quality .......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.5.2 Water Conservation ................................................................................................................................ 5 1.5.3 Future Proofing ....................................................................................................................................... 5 1.6 OUR FUTURE CHALLENGES ................................................................................................................................... 6 1.7 THINKING AHEAD .................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.8 CONTEXT FOR THE NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLAN – A PLAN BASED ON POLICY ............................................. 7 1.8.1 Water Services Policy Statement ........................................................................................................... 8 1.8.2 Project Ireland 2040 - National Planning Framework ............................................................................. 8 1.8.3 Water Framework Directive and River Basin Management Plan for Ireland 2018-2021 ....................... 9 1.8.4 National Adaptation Framework – Sectoral Adaptation Planning .......................................................... 9 1.8.5 Drinking Water Directive ....................................................................................................................... 10 1.8.6 How Our Plan is Designed to Incorporate Policy ................................................................................. 10 1.9 NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLAN – WHAT IS THE PROCESS? .......................................................................... 12 1.9.1 What has happened to date? ............................................................................................................... 12 1.9.2 Phase 1 NWRP – Framework Plan ...................................................................................................... 15 1.9.3 Adopting the NWRP – Framework Plan ............................................................................................... 16 1.9.4 Start of Phase 2 NWRP –Regional Water Resources Plans ................................................................ 17 1.10 SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 2. Water Resources Planning and Key Concepts ................................................................................................. 20 2.1 THE WATER RESOURCES PLANNING PROCESS .................................................................................................... 21 2.1.1 Basis for this Plan ................................................................................................................................. 21 2.2 TRACKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE DRINKING WATER SAFETY PLAN .................................................................. 24 2.3 KEY CONCEPTS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING ............................................................................................... 25 2.3.1 Water Resources Zones and Water Supply Zones .............................................................................. 25 2.3.2 Weather Event Planning Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 31 2.3.3 Level of Service .................................................................................................................................... 33 2.3.4 Supply Demand Balance ...................................................................................................................... 35 2.4 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................... 37 3 Identify the Need - Public Water Supply ............................................................................................................. 38 3.1 INTRODUCTION TO SUPPLY .................................................................................................................................. 40 3.2 STEP 1 – CALCULATE THE HYDROLOGICAL YIELD ................................................................................................. 41 3.2.1 Surface Water Sources......................................................................................................................... 41 3.2.2 Groundwater Sources ........................................................................................................................... 44 3.3 STEP 2 – ALLOW FOR SUSTAINABLE OPERATION .................................................................................................. 46 3.3.1 WTP and Network Capacity ................................................................................................................. 46 3.3.2 Process Losses .................................................................................................................................... 46 3.4 STEP 3 – CALCULATE THE DEPLOYABLE OUTPUT ................................................................................................. 47 3.5 STEP 4 – ALLOWANCE FOR OUTAGE .................................................................................................................... 48 3.6 STEP 5 – CALCULATE THE BASELINE WAFU ........................................................................................................ 49 3.7 STEP 6 – FORECAST THE COMPONENTS OF SUPPLY TO DERIVE THE FUTURE WAFU .............................................. 50 3.7.1 Climate Change .................................................................................................................................... 50 iv | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 3.7.2 Abstraction Legislation.......................................................................................................................... 51 3.8 BASELINE AND FORECAST SUPPLY....................................................................................................................... 52 3.9 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................... 54 4. Identify the need – Demand for Water in Public Water Supplies ................................................................... 55 4.1 INTRODUCTION TO DEMAND ................................................................................................................................. 57 4.2 STEP 1 – CALCULATE BASE YEAR DEMAND .......................................................................................................... 58 4.2.1 Overview of Base Year Water Balance ................................................................................................ 58 4.2.2 Demand Components ........................................................................................................................... 60 4.3 STEP 2 – CALCULATE FORECASTS FOR COMPONENTS OF DEMAND ....................................................................... 66 4.3.1 Overview of demand forecasts ............................................................................................................. 66 4.3.2 Demand component forecasts .............................................................................................................. 66 4.3.3 Leakage – Approach to Leakage Reduction Forecast ......................................................................... 73 4.3.4 Climate Change .................................................................................................................................... 77 4.3.5 Water Conservation Initiatives .............................................................................................................. 77 4.3.6 Excessive Use Charge ......................................................................................................................... 78 4.3.7 Non-domestic Tariff Framework ........................................................................................................... 78 4.4 STEP 3: CALCULATE HEADROOM ......................................................................................................................... 79 4.5 STEP 4: CALCULATE TOTAL DEMAND FORECAST .................................................................................................. 81 4.6 STEP 5: CALCULATE PEAKING FACTORS .............................................................................................................. 81 4.6.1 Tourist demand ..................................................................................................................................... 83 4.7 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................... 83 5 Identify the need – Barrier Assessment ................................................................................................................. 84 5.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 86 5.2 DRINKING WATER REGULATION ........................................................................................................................... 86 5.3 UPCOMING LEGISLATIVE CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................... 86 5.3.1 Microbiological ...................................................................................................................................... 87 5.3.2 Chemical ............................................................................................................................................... 87 5.3.3 Indicator ................................................................................................................................................ 88 5.3.4 Cryptosporidium .................................................................................................................................... 88 5.4 MONITORING OF OUR EXISTING SUPPLIES ............................................................................................................ 88 5.5 RISK ASSESSMENT OF OUR EXISTING SUPPLIES – THE DRINKING WATER SAFETY PLAN APPROACH ..................... 89 5.6 THE BARRIER APPROACH TO SAFE AND SECURE DRINKING WATER ...................................................................... 92 5.7 INTERIM BARRIER ASSESSMENT REVIEW .............................................................................................................. 94 5.8 MANAGING RISK IN DRINKING WATER SUPPLIES ................................................................................................... 95 5.9 MANAGING RISK IN DRINKING WATER ABSTRACTION CATCHMENTS ....................................................................... 95 5.10 FUTURE ASSET PLANNING ACROSS OUR EXISTING SUPPLIES .............................................................................. 96 5.11 RELIABILITY – CAPITAL MAINTENANCE AND CRITICAL ASSETS ............................................................................. 97 5.12 SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 98 6. Summarise the Need - Supply Demand Balance and Barrier Risk Scores ...................................................... 99 6.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 101 6.2 SUMMARY RESULTS WATER QUANTITY – SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE .................................................................. 101 6.2.1 National Summary .............................................................................................................................. 102 6.2.2 How we are presenting the SDB information ..................................................................................... 111 6.3 QUALITY AND RELIABILITY ................................................................................................................................. 112 6.3.1 Quality and Reliability – Summary Results......................................................................................... 112 6.3.2 Water Security – The Barrier Approach to Asset Management ......................................................... 112 6.4 SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 116 7. Develop Solutions – Our Approach .................................................................................................................. 117 7.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 119 7.2 THE THREE PILLARS ......................................................................................................................................... 119 7.3 OUR CURRENT ACTIONS ................................................................................................................................... 120 7.3.1 Lose Less: Leakage Reduction .......................................................................................................... 120 v | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 7.3.2 Use Less: Water Conservation & Stewardship .................................................................................. 122 7.3.3 Supply Smarter: Capital Investment and Improved Operations ......................................................... 125 7.3.4 Cross Pillar Action: Data Acquisition and Improvement Projects ....................................................... 128 7.4 SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 130 8. Develop Solutions – Our New Options Methodology .................................................................................... 131 8.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 133 8.2 NEW OPTIONS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY – CRITERIA ................................................................................... 134 8.2.1 Resilience ........................................................................................................................................... 136 8.2.2 Deliverability and Flexibility ................................................................................................................ 137 8.2.3 Progressibility ..................................................................................................................................... 138 8.2.4 Sustainability (Environmental and Social Impacts) ............................................................................ 139 8.2.5 Cost..................................................................................................................................................... 139 8.3 A NEW OPTIONS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................. 140 8.3.1 Stage 1: Identify the Need .................................................................................................................. 141 8.3.2 Stage 2: Scoping of the Study Area ................................................................................................... 141 8.3.3 Stage 3: Option Development: Unconstrained Options List ............................................................... 142 8.3.4 Stage 4: Coarse Screening ................................................................................................................ 147 8.3.5 Stage 5: Fine Screening ..................................................................................................................... 148 8.3.6 Stage 6: Feasible Options List – Option Costing ................................................................................ 151 8.3.7 Stage 7: Approach Development ........................................................................................................ 151 8.3.8 Stage 8: Monitoring and Feedback into Plan ..................................................................................... 160 8.4 SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 167 9. What Happens Next ............................................................................................................................................. 168 9.1 SUMMARY OF THE FRAMEWORK PLAN ................................................................................................................ 169 9.1.1 Identify the Need ................................................................................................................................. 170 9.1.2 Identify the Need: Quality and Reliability ............................................................................................ 171 9.1.3 Identifying appropriate solutions: Our Three Pillar Approach ............................................................. 171 9.2 OPTIONS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND PREFERRED APPROACH DEVELOPMENT .......................................... 172 9.2.1 Delivery of the National Water Resources Plan ................................................................................. 174 9.3 TRACKING OUR PROGRESS................................................................................................................................ 176 9.4 ADOPTION OF THE NWRP - FRAMEWORK PLAN .................................................................................................. 176 GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AND TERMS .................................................................................................................... 177 Technical Appendices A. Consultation B. Planning Scenarios C. Supply Assessment D. Level of Service E. Drought Planning F. Climate Change Impacts on Supplies G. Regulatory and Licensing Constraints H. Sustainable Economic Level of Leakage Report I. Headroom J. Irish Water’s Multi Barrier Approach for Achieving Safe and Secure Drinking Water K. Residuals L. Supply Demand Balance Summaries M. Environmental Costing N. Fine Screening Scoring Criteria 1 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 1. Introduction Context and Related Plan 1 Introduction 1 2 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points This section contains the following information: • The National Water Resources Plan (NWRP) and its relationship with other Irish Water Strategies, Government Policy and Legislation; • An outline of current water services in Ireland; and • A summary of future challenges faced in serving the needs of our customers. 1.1 Introduction Did you know? • Irish Water was created in 2013; • We serve 4.2 million people; • We deliver water services to approximately 87% of the population • Irish Water currently manages 539 individual water supplies in Ireland; • We produce over 1.7 billion litres of drinking water every day, and take wastewater away for treatment before it is returned to our rivers and seas. Thousands of assets are operated and maintained to provide these services, including: • 749 water treatment plants, which deliver water through over 65,000km of pipelines; • an estimated 25,000km of sewer network through which we collect wastewater for treatment in over 1,000 wastewater treatment plants, with associated pumping stations and sludge treatment centres. 1.2 Who we are On the 1st of January 2014, through the Water Services Act (No. 1) 2013, Irish Water assumed statutory responsibility for the provision of public water services and management of water and wastewater investment. Irish Water’s role is to provide public water and wastewater services throughout the country. We are the custodian with the responsibility to manage Irelands precious water resources and, with our Local Authority partners, secure it for future generations. It is our responsibility to ensure that all our customers receive a safe and secure supply of drinking water and have their wastewater collected, appropriately treated and returned to the environment. We support Ireland’s social and economic growth in a sustainable manner through appropriate investment in water services and strive to protect the environment in all our activities. Irish Water is regulated by the following: • The economic regulator, the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU), is charged with protecting the interests of the customer. The CRU also approves appropriate funding to enable Irish Water to deliver the required services to specified standards in an efficient manner. 1 3 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • The environmental regulator, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), sets standards and enforces compliance with EU and National Legislation for drinking water supply and wastewater discharge to water bodies. The EPA liaises with the Health Services Executive in matters of public health. 1.3 What is the National Water Resources Plan Effective water services, including both the delivery of a sustainable and reliable clean water supply, and the safe disposal of wastewater, are essential for a modern country. Being able to understand and estimate how much water is required, where it is required, and when it is required, is essential to plan appropriately for Irelands' future. A national water resources plan is a strategic plan used to identify deficiencies and need across an entire water supply, and to develop plan level capital and operational solutions to address these issues. Irish Water’s National Water Resources Plan (NWRP) will be the first such plan for the entire public water supply in Ireland. It will allow us to integrate Government Policy, Legislation and external factors including climate change that have the potential to impact our water supplies, into the planning and operation of our existing and future supply asset base. The objective of the NWRP is to manage customer and communities needs while meeting their requirements over the short, medium and long term, by ensuring safe, secure, sustainable and reliable water supplies. The NWRP will: • Enable Irish Water to address need across our water supplies in the most effective way over time, through the regulated investment cycles; • Ensure that there is a transparent framework to develop the most appropriate projects/programmes to meet statutory obligations in relation to water supply; • Provide a framework to track outcomes, allowing interventions to be prioritised in order to bring the water supply up to the required standards in the shortest possible timeframe; and • Deliver a plan to ensure that all of our customers have access to safe, secure, reliable and sustainable water supplies, wherever they live. To ensure broad public and stakeholder engagement, and because it is such an enormous task, the first NWRP is being delivered in two Phases as described in section 1.9 below. Phase 1 is delivery of a Framework Plan, and Phase 2 is delivery of four Regional Water Resource Plans. During the Phase 1 NWRP – Framework Plan, Consultation one, a scoping and screening exercise with statutory consultees was undertaken in order to inform the preparation of a draft Framework Plan with accompanying SEA and Natura Impact Assessment reports. During the Phase 1 NWRP- Framework Plan Consultation two, Irish Water consulted on the draft Framework Plan with accompanying SEA and Natura Impact Assessment reports, and in particular on the methodologies detailed in the draft Framework Plan, in order to identify need and find solutions to address need across all of our supplies. The Framework Plan has been updated and finalised following consideration of all submissions received during consultation and is this document which has been formally adopted by Irish Water together with accompanying SEA Statement and Appropriate Assessment Determination. In the Framework Plan we have assessed need across each of the 539 public water supplies nationally, in terms of: • Water Quantity that Irish Water can provide; • Water Quality that Irish Water can provide; and • Performance and operational efficiency of Irish Water’s Asset Base. 4 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Water resources plans are reviewed on a cyclical basis to take account of new information, data, policies and laws and are typically updated every 5 years. We know things will change over the next 25 years so, within the Framework Plan, we have considered a range of possible futures, some more challenging than others. We have also committed to an ongoing process of monitoring and feedback. This approach is called adaptive planning and means we are ready and flexible whatever the future holds. A glossary of technical terms used is included at the end of the document. 1.4 Water Supply in Ireland Water is currently abstracted from approximately 1,090 individual sources and treated in 749 Water Treatment Plants (WTPs). The size of these WTPs varies significantly across the country, with the largest 72 producing 73% of the water supplied, and the smallest 500 producing on average about 6% or 0.2Ml/d of the total supply. The WTPs feed water into supply areas known as Water Resources Zones (WRZs). Each WRZ is an independent water supply system serving a region, city, town or village and is governed by topography or the extent of the water distribution network in an area. Within a WRZ most customers receive the same Level of Service (LoS), measured as a probability of interruption to services (for example one interruption to supply in 50 years). There are 539 WRZs in Ireland. These range in size, serving populations of less than 30 people (small rural areas) up to 1.7 million people (Greater Dublin Area - GDA). Ireland has a dispersed population and water supplies were historically developed in response to need in the immediate vicinity. As a result, some supplies were developed using surface or groundwater sources with limitations in terms of quantity available and/or variable raw water quality. Also, due to long term under investment in water services, many of our water supply assets (WTPs, water mains etc) are in need of upgrades or additional infrastructure is required. There are a number of key issues that impact the quality, sustainability and reliability of our existing water supplies including: • Single Source Supplies: Many WRZs rely on a single source of supply, meaning they are more vulnerable to interruptions to supply; • Inappropriate Water Sources: Current supplies often come from small local rivers. We must ensure that our abstractions do not adversely impact the environment so that Ireland can comply with its obligations under the Water Framework Directive; • Treatment Capacity: Rapid growth in some areas has meant that some of our WTPs are undersized and treat water in quantities that exceed the original design capacity of these facilities; • Water Quality: Although 99.6% of samples passed quality tests in 2019, some of our water treatment facilities and distribution systems do not function as effective barriers to reduce risk and may not consistently ensure safe drinking water at Customer’s taps. A legacy of under-investment has exacerbated the problems with some water supply assets. • Network Performance: The performance of our distribution networks does not meet European norms, and leakage and distribution losses are unacceptably high. Key issues include: o The average age of the water mains infrastructure in Ireland is estimated at between 65 and 85 years. This compares to an EU average of 36 years1 o Some of the cast iron mains in our cities and towns are often heavily corroded and vary in age from 50 to 160 years, giving rise to high leakage, rust discolouration and high risk of failure causing supply disruption. o Other pipe materials such as uPVC and Asbestos Cement laid between the 1960s and 1980s can also be problematic with high burst frequency 1 European Benchmarking Cooperation 2013 5 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • Constrained Funding: Due to long term underinvestment in water services many of our assets are failing and are in need of significant capital investment. This issue, coupled with increasingly strict EU standards regarding treated water quality and protection of the environment, are together driving the need to increase as opposed to reduce expenditure. 1.5 Progress to date Irish Water has made positive progress in improving water quality for our customers by developing policies and strategies for our water supplies. We have progressed projects and programmes to deliver the requirements of these policies. Irish Water’s Investment periods, (known as Revenue Control periods) set out how much Irish Water can spend on projects and programmes for that period and are subject to oversight by and approval of the CRU. The first Capital Investment Plan covered the period 2014-2016. The second investment plan covered 2017 to 2019. We are currently at early implementation stages of the new investment plan for 2020- 2024. Between January 2014 and December 2019 Irish Water invested €3.9 billion in public water and wastewater infrastructure, with a further projected spend of circa €5bn by 2024. We have invested in a range of water projects and programmes that will support and enable proper planning and sustainable development at a national, regional and local level. The objective of this approach has been to deliver a balanced portfolio of investment across the three themes of Quality, Conservation and Future Proofing. 1.5.1 Water Quality Irish Water aims to lift Boil Water Notices (BWN) through targeted investment and we have successfully achieved this for 79,507 people since 2014. Nearly 16,000 of these people were on long term boil water notices. Through investment in water assets and infrastructure, Irish Water has removed 174 public water schemes from the EPA’s remedial action list. Over the same period (2014-2019) an additional 86 schemes have been added, leaving 52 schemes with remedial works remaining. Since the start of 2014, 72 WTPs have been rationalised by Irish Water by laying a water main connection to a neighbouring treatment plant. We are also delivering a range of national programmes to address high risk water supplies. Through our National Disinfection Programme, we have upgraded a total of 255 WTPs and under our National Lead Programme we have replaced a total of 32,641 lead services, representing a significant investment in protecting public health. 1.5.2 Water Conservation Water conservation is a key focus for Irish Water. Our National Leakage Reduction Programme is reducing leaks across Ireland by fixing or replacing old, damaged pipes and removing lead service pipes from the network. Through this programme we have achieved total gross leakage savings of 154.2 Ml/d on the private side and 233.2 Ml/d on the public side of the water distribution network for the 2014-2019 period. 1.5.3 Future Proofing Between 2014 and 2019 we delivered key outcomes to support growth including constructing 11 new WTPs and upgrading 36 WTPs. We have also laid a total of 1,906km of new and rehabilitated water main. Major national strategic infrastructure water projects have also been progressed during this time, including the Vartry Water Supply Scheme (Co Dublin and Wicklow) and Lough Guitane WTP (Kerry). These projects are of vital importance and critical to meeting Ireland’s growing water needs. Despite this progress, Irish Water will have further challenges to address. Therefore, it is essential that we put in place a NWRP in order to keep making progress in a strategic and prioritised way for the next 6 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 25 years. The NWRP will help Irish Water inform the capital investment plans for each future investment cycle. 1.6 Our Future Challenges Ireland has a temperate climate with relatively high annual average rainfall, so while it is easy to assume that there is plenty of water available for supply, this is not always the case. Rainfall is unevenly distributed across the country, with more falling in the west than the east. Figure 1.1 shows that the areas with lowest rainfall have the greatest population density, meaning resources in our most populated areas can become stressed. Figure 1.1 - Rainfall in Ireland compared to population density In addition, we also face key challenges over the coming years, which have the potential to exacerbate the current problems with our water supplies: • A growing population: The country’s population is expected to increase by 21% or 1.2 million people over the next 25 years, this will impact on the demand for water; • Changes in land use and emerging contaminants: Increasing pressure on the quality of water in the natural environment before it is treated, due to changes in land use, emerging contaminants and higher quality/supply standards required under the recast Drinking Water Directive; • A changing climate: Changing weather patterns reducing available supplies and increasing the frequency of droughts and other extreme weather events that can result in interruptions to supply; and • An Environment in Need: We currently abstract water from rivers and groundwater aquifers for the purpose of water supply. We need to make sure we leave enough water in the environment to protect the health of rivers and wildlife. Forthcoming abstraction legislation, required to ensure that Ireland can meet its obligations under the Water Framework Directive, may reduce the amount of water we are able to abstract from some of our sources in the future. If we can address these challenges as part of our Plan, we will ensure that future infrastructure development is proportionate to identified need and is sustainable, reliable and resilient. 7 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 1.7 Thinking Ahead The consequences of not planning properly are significant for society, the economy and the environment. We need to take proactive steps to make sure that we have sufficient water for future generations, and that our supplies are safe, secure, reliable and sustainable. We’ve looked at a wide range of options to address identified need under three key pillars: 1. Lose Less: This pillar focuses on reducing water lost through leakage and improving the efficiency of our distribution networks. Only a tiny proportion of leaks within our distribution networks come to the surface as visible leaks. Most water leakage is absorbed into the ground or escapes into sewers and drains, so cannot be seen at ground level. The lose less pillar includes the actions which will improve our understanding of leakage, ways to reduce it, and the tools required to help us to find and fix leaks. 2. Use Less: This pillar focuses on the potential for us all to use less water in our everyday lives, and looks at activities to help understand water use habits, influence behaviour, encourage change and promote water efficient devices and appliances for domestic and non-domestic customers. 3. Supply Smarter: This pillar focuses on improving the quality, resilience, and security of our supplies through infrastructure improvements, operational improvements and developing new sustainable sources of water. The Supply Smarter pillar includes actions to proactively engage in the protection our natural water resources, improve the performance and resilience of existing supplies, improve interconnectivity within our supply networks, increase the amount of water available for use, reduce risk, improve compliance, address the environmental impacts of existing abstractions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. We also support this through asset maintenance, operations and by delivering process optimisation and training. The key option types for infrastructure improvements under the supply smarter pillar are shown in Figure 1.2. 1.8 Context for the National Water Resources Plan – A Plan based on Policy The context for the NWRP lies primarily in Government Legislation and Policy for water services, growth and economic development, protection of the environment and climate change adaptation. We operate under an economic regulatory regime which requires us to operate efficiently, having regard to whole life cost of supplies. We must develop a strategic plan for our water supply infrastructure that provides a clear and transparent roadmap for how we operate, maintain, reinforce, develop and invest in our asset base aligned to national policy that ensures the best outcomes for water users. The key policies feeding into our NWRP are: • Water Services Policy Statement (WSPS); • Project Ireland 2040 – National Planning Framework (NPF); • Water Framework Directive (WFD) & River Basin Management Plan (RBMP) for Ireland; • National Adaptation Plan (NAP) & Adaptation Plan for Water Quality and Water Services Infrastructure; and the • Recast Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Figure 1.2 - Key option types 8 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 1.8.1 Water Services Policy Statement The WSPS (2018-2025) identifies high-level objectives and priorities for delivery of water and wastewater services between 2018 and 2025. It was prepared by the Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government, in line with the Water Services Act (2017) giving clear direction to strategic planning and decision-making on water and wastewater services in Ireland. The themes and policy objectives contained within the WSPS are complementary to the strategic objectives set out in Irish Water’s Water Services Strategic Plan (WSSP). The NWRP is aligned with the three themes in the WSPS namely: • Water Quality; • Water Conservation; and • Futureproofing of Assets. 1.8.2 Project Ireland 2040 - National Planning Framework Project Ireland 2040 - National Planning Framework (NPF)2 is a high-level strategic planning and development guidance for the country over the next 20 years, underpinning population growth that is economically, socially and environmentally sustainable. The National Development Plan (NDP) 2018-2027 sets out the investment priorities that will provide the foundation for implementation of the NPF and the commitment to public investment reform. We have used the best available information from the NPF and three Regional Assemblies when developing our demand forecasts within this Framework Plan. Therefore, our Framework Plan directly aligns with national policy on growth and allows us to understand the role of the public water supply in supporting future growth and development. Information from the Regional Assemblies will also be used in the Regional Water Resources Plans which will be developed as Phase 2 of the NWRP, as discussed in section 1.9. The Local Authority Development Plans required under the Planning and Development Act, 2000 as amended, must be consistent with the NPF. Therefore, as pertinent demographic information from the Development Plans becomes available, it will be incorporated into our NWRP on a county by county basis as the NWRP evolves over time. This will ensure that our strategic plans best reflect need in the communities we serve. In turn, information from Irish Water’s capacity registers will be made available for the purposes of Development Plans. This process will involve an ongoing feedback loop between the Resources Planning process and the forward planning processes in Irish Water, the Regional Assemblies and the Local Authorities. 2 Project Ireland 2040 – National Planning Framework (Feb 2018) 9 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 1.8.3 Water Framework Directive and River Basin Management Plan for Ireland 2018-2021 The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) (2000/60/EC) and the subsequent River Basin Management Plan (RBMP), are referenced by the Framework Plan as they set the objectives for managing the water bodies in our natural environment from abstraction to final discharge. The RBMP sets out the WFD objectives for Ireland. It considers the actions Ireland will need to take to improve water quality and to achieve at least “Good” ecological status in waterbodies (rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters) by 2027. The RBMP drives a programme of measures to deliver a more considered and balanced approach to the water taken from the environment and any potential impacts arising. The RBMP will influence from where, in what quantities, and under what conditions we can abstract water for the public water supply. The RBMP sets the constraints around our existing abstractions including any measures that may need to be undertaken to reduce the environmental impacts on these existing sources. It will also influence the legislative framework within which any new abstractions we develop must conform. 1.8.4 National Adaptation Framework – Sectoral Adaptation Planning Building on the work completed under the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (NCCAF 2012), the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment published Ireland’s first statutory National Adaptation Framework (NAF), in January 2018. The NAF sets out the national approach to adaptation in Ireland to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. The approach requires each government department to develop a Sectoral Adaptation Plan for their area of responsibility. As part of the NAF, the Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government (DPHLG) produced the Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Water Quality and Water Services Infrastructure. Figure 1.3 lists the acute priority impacts on water services and their associated risk controls and adaptation measures as stated in the Sectoral Adaptation Plan. Figure 1.3 - Adaptation Plan Acute Priority Impacts The NWRP is called out as an adaptation measure under all the identified acute priority impacts within the Sectoral Adaptation Plan. 10 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan We note the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Bill 2021 was published in March 2021 and at the time of finalising this Framework Plan, it is being debated by the Oireachtas. We will incorporate this new policy into our Water Resources Planning process and will review as part of the Regional Water Resources Plans in accordance with our feedback and monitoring process. 1.8.5 Drinking Water Directive The Recast Drinking Water Directive (DWD)3 has updated the quality standards for water intended for human consumption and has introduced minimum hygiene requirements for materials in contact with drinking water (e.g. pipes, taps). A watch-list mechanism will allow for the monitoring of substances or compounds of public or scientific concern to health, such as endocrine disruptors, pharmaceuticals and microplastics. In addition, EU Members must ensure the safety of drinking-water supplies with a comprehensive risk assessment and risk management approach that encompasses all steps in water supply from catchment to consumer. Greater transparency on water quality information must also be provided. 1.8.6 How Our Plan is Designed to Incorporate Policy On the 1st of January 2014, through the Water Services Act (No. 1) 2013, Irish Water assumed statutory responsibility for the provision of public water services and management of water and wastewater investment. Subsequent legislation, the Water Services (No. 2) Act 2013, required that Irish Water prepare a Water Services Strategic Plan (WSSP) setting out the company’s objectives in relation to the provision of public water services for the State over a 25-year period. Under the Act, the WSSP is required to address the following aspects: • Drinking Water Quality; • The prevention or abatement of risk to human health or environment relating to provision of water services; • Existing and projected demand for water services; • Existing and planned arrangements for provision of water services; • Existing and reasonably foreseeable deficiencies in the provision of water services; • Existing and planned water conservation measures; and • The management of the property of Irish Water. Work on the WSSP commenced in early 2014 and included the publication of the WSSP Issues Paper in July 2014, which was subject to public consultation for a period of five weeks. Further to responses on the WSSP Issues Paper and stakeholder engagement, statutory consultation as part of SEA on the draft WSSP was conducted between 19 February 2015 and 17 April 2015. The final WSSP was approved by the (then) Minister of Environment Planning and Local Government in October 2015. The adopted WSSP sets out six strategic objectives, to achieve the statutory requirements of the plan: • Meet Customer Expectations; • Ensure a Safe and Reliable Water Supply; • Provide Effective Management of Wastewater; • Protect and Enhance the Environment; • Support Social and Economic Growth; and • Invest in Our Future. 3 Drinking Water Directive (98/83/EC), Provisional Agreement of Recast Directive 18th December 2019 11 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 1.4 shows that the WSSP is a Tier 1 Plan, which sets out the strategic objectives for the business. It also sets the context for the Tier 2 implementation plans which are the framework by which we develop the processes, programmes and projects to meet the objectives set out in the WSSP. The NWRP is one of our Tier 2 Implementation Plans and was called out as a requirement within the WSSP. The NWRP focusses on water supply, particularly in relation to five of the six objectives set out in the WSSP: • Meet Customer Expectations; • Ensure a Safe and Reliable Water Supply; • Protect and Enhance the Environment; • Support Social and Economic Growth; and • Invest in Our Future. The NWRP will ensure that we have a transparent Framework Plan and Regional Water Resources Plans to allow us to provide a safe, secure, reliable and sustainable water supply now and into the future. In line with the statutory requirements of the WSSP, once adopted, the NWRP will become Irish Water’s strategic framework for the delivery of water services, which in turn will assist in planning projects and programmes to address water supply issues in conjunction with updates to applicable national policies. These will then be prioritised and brought forward through our regulated 5-year investment cycles. Figure 1.4 also shows that the NWRP will be the means by which we directly align government policy with our strategic plans for water services. Figure 1.4 - How Irish Water incorporates government policy into our strategic plans. Please note the NWRP consists of Phase 1 National Water Resources Plan-Framework Plan & Phase 2 (x4) Regional Water Resources Plans. 12 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 1.9 National Water Resources Plan – What is the Process? The NWRP is subject to the provisions of the European Council Directive on assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment (Directive 2001/42/EC). This is known as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive and its provisions are transposed into Irish law by European Communities (Environmental Assessment of Certain Plans and Programmes) Regulations 2004 (S.I. No. 435 of 2004 as amended in 20114). The Directive is applicable to the National Water Resources Plan. As this is our first NWRP we have divided it into two distinct phases, the combination of which will form our overall National Water Resources Plan. Phase 1 is the NWRP – Framework Plan, which has been subject to SEA and Appropriate Assessment. This is the final version of that Framework Plan, as adopted. Phase 2 comprises four Regional Water Resources Plans each of which will be subject to SEA and Appropriate Assessment. 1.9.1 What has happened to date? The development of the NWRP commenced in 2017 and involved: • Identifying best practice that could be applied for water resource planning in Ireland; • Identifying all issues related to water supply including, quality, quantity, leakage, reliability and sustainability; • Developing a robust methodology to identify and prioritise programs of work to address the identified need; and • Early stakeholder engagement and consultation with key stakeholders. SEA screening was conducted in August 2017 by Irish Water (as the responsible authority) and we determined that SEA of the NWRP was required in accordance with Directive 2001/42/EC. Irish Water developed: • An SEA Scoping Report outlining the geographical and temporal scope of the NWRP Methodology and SEA; • The baseline environment for the plan; and • A proposed framework of SEA objectives to inform the strategic assessment. Consultation with the environmental authorities and non-statutory consultation (Phase 1 NWRP – Framework plan Consultation one) was carried out on the SEA Scoping Report between November 2017 and January 2018. Feedback from consultation was incorporated into our draft Framework Plan and the SEA process. Since June 2018, we have undertaken extensive engagement with our local authority partners. As part of the development of the Phase 1 NWRP draft Framework Plan, regular presentations and workshops were undertaken with each of the 31 local authorities across the country. The feedback from the Phase 1 NWRP-Framework Plan Consultation one is summarised in Figure 1.5 and further detail is provided in Appendix A. A high-level overview of the NWRP consultation roadmap is summarised in Figure 1.6. 4 http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2011/si/200/made/en/print http://scanmail.trustwave.com/?c=17268&d=qdnE34ysalJZ6AxmBwdC2bGGT5k1 k7c PtC 6wExA&s=328&u=http%3a%2f%2fwww%2eirishstatutebook%2eie%2feli%2f2011%2fsi%2f200%2fmade%2fen%2fprint 13 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Phase 1 NWRP – Framework Plan SEA Scoping (Consultation One) Phase 1 NWRP – Framework Plan Non-statutory Local Authority and Stakeholder engagement • 1,186 Website hits • 150 update emails • 71 queries • 36 stakeholder briefings • 18 pieces of media coverage • Conferences and workshops • 29 workshops across 31 Local Authorities between June and July 2019 • Over 1800 comments reviewed • Data validated for 539 WRZs, 1090 Abstractions and 749 WTPs Figure 1.5 - Summary of Phase 1 NWRP – Framework plan consultation one prior to publication of draft Framework Plan The SEA requirements have been integral to the development of the NWRP to ensure the environment is considered throughout the process. This is described fully in the accompanying SEA Statement. SEA objectives identified through SEA scoping consultation process have been taken into account in the preparation of the Framework Plan and the Options Assessment Methodology set out in it. This Options Assessment Methodology will be applied to each Water Resource Zone as part of Phase 2 of the NWRP, the preparation of the Regional Water Resources Plans. 14 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 1.6 NWRP Consultation Roadmap 15 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 1.9.2 Phase 1 NWRP – Framework Plan The Framework Plan includes: • A description of the methodology we propose to use for Water Resources Planning: o How we assess quantity need through the Supply Demand Balance o How we assess quality and reliability need through the Barrier Assessment o How we address sustainability by ensuring that all new options for water supply must be based on conservative approaches to protecting water sources o Our Options Assessment Process o Our Preferred Approach Development Process • An assessment of Need across our asset base in terms of Quality, Quantity, Reliability and Sustainability for all of our supplies nationally (Figure 1.7). Figure 1.7 – Our NWRP Options Process During the Phase 1 NWRP – Framework plan Consultation two, for illustrative purposes only, we included a case study to help people understand how the proposed methodology was applied to an area (to bring it to life). This case study was not a plan for this area, as the draft Regional Water Resources Plans are still being developed, based on this Framework Plan, as Phase 2 of the NWRP. Figure 1.8 summarises the key components of the NWRP (the Framework Plan and four Regional Water Resources Plans) and the consultation steps that were undertaken for Phase 1 and will take place for Phase 2 of the NWRP. 16 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 1.8 – Component Parts of National Water Resources Plan The Phase 1 NWRP - Framework Plan Consultation two ran from Tuesday 8th December 2020 to Friday 12th March 2021. 1.9.3 Adopting the NWRP – Framework Plan This Framework Plan is an amended version of the draft Framework Plan as consulted on during Phase 1 NWRP - Framework Plan Consultation two. It has been amended in light of and following consideration of all submissions received. The consideration given to all of the submissions received on the draft Framework Plan is contained in a Consultation Report. The Consultation Report attaches a version of this Framework Plan showing all changes made to the draft Framework Plan. This Framework Plan is accompanied by an SEA Statement and Appropriate Assessment Determination as required by law, which were adopted with this Framework Plan by Irish Water. A Non-Technical Summary of the Framework Plan has also been prepared. These Phase 1 NWRP- Framework Plan documents can be viewed at https://www.water.ie/projects- plans/our-plans/nwrp/ https://urldefense.com/v3/ https:/www.water.ie/projects-plans/our-plans/nwrp/ ;!!B5cixuoO7ltTeg!WARal5BlyDkyZCeG-Bt8lFrrW2PCe3SQc mtYfIo3TWynUSY9dVXWD56s9Bj9YWaSQTnsQ$ https://urldefense.com/v3/ https:/www.water.ie/projects-plans/our-plans/nwrp/ ;!!B5cixuoO7ltTeg!WARal5BlyDkyZCeG-Bt8lFrrW2PCe3SQc mtYfIo3TWynUSY9dVXWD56s9Bj9YWaSQTnsQ$ 17 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 1.9.4 Start of Phase 2 NWRP –Regional Water Resources Plans As explained above, this is our first NWRP. It considers 539 individual Water Resource Zones and 65,0000 km of distribution network. The scale of the undertaking is especially significant when we compare this against the number of water resource zones that water utilities in the United Kingdom (UK) must plan for, and the depth of data that those utilities have available to them. The differential relative to the number of water resource zones is illustrated in Table 1.1 where we give an example of the number of water resource zones managed by other utilities. Table 1.1 - UK water utilities WRZ comparison Water Utility Number of WRZs Total number of customers Northern Ireland Water 7 1.7 million Welsh Water 24 3 million United Utilities 4 7 million Southern Water 10 3 million Scottish Water approx. 220 5 million Irish Water 539 4.2 million In light of the fact that this is the first NWRP, with 539 WRZs and a very significant challenge in terms of historic underinvestment in water infrastructure to date, it was considered necessary and prudent to divide the public water supply system into the four regional groups as shown in Figure 1.8 and as explained below. These regional boundaries are only relevant for the development of the first NWRP and have been identified as the most efficient and appropriate way to allow Irish Water to identify Preferred Approaches for each Water Resource Zone in an efficient and timely manner. Once the first NWRP has been finalised, comprised of this Framework Plan and the four Regional Water Resources Plans (RWRPs), together they will be treated as a unified plan. The relevant regional groupings will have no ongoing application. In particular, the Preferred Approaches identified in each RWRP will be prioritised collectively through Irish Water’s planning and investment cycles. In other words, there will not be any difference in investment priority across the four regional groupings. Where Local Authority Areas have been split across two RWRPs, Irish Water will engage with those local Authorities following the finalisation of the RWRPs, on the outcomes for all of the water supplies in their areas. The formation of the four regional groups (described below) was determined based on the following criteria: 1. Irish Water Operational Regions (North and West, Eastern and Midlands, and Southern Region): In order to allow us to optimize the staffing resources during the roll out of the four RWRPs. 2. The Water Resource Zone boundaries: To represent our current supplies. Due to the disproportionate volume of WRZs in the Southern Region, for administration of the roll out process, the area has been split into two groups, South West and South East. 3. Local Authority boundaries: This allows us to align the Local Authority Development Plans to our Supply Demand forecasts, and to assess the full options assessments process with our colleagues in the Local Authority Water Services Sections. In some cases the Local Authority areas had to be split for delivery purposes. 18 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 4. Environmental Impact: As far possible, designated water body catchment (or at least sub- catchment areas), as delineated by the EPA under the River Basin Management Plan, have been used. The outputs of the four RWRPs will be combined for prioritisation and progression through the future cycles of capital investment planning as described above. Each of the four RWRPs, together with their respective SEA Environmental Reports and Natura Impact Statement will ensure that consideration is given to the cumulative impacts and in-combination effects of the other RWRPs, and adjustments will be made to address those impacts to the fullest extent possible based on all available information. Each of the four regional groups will have their own RWRP as described below: • Regional Water Resources Plan: North West (Group Area 1) • Regional Water Resources Plan: South West (Group Area 2) • Regional Water Resources Plan: South East (Group Area 3) • Regional Water Resources Plan: Eastern and Midlands (Group Area 4) Each RWRP will: • Apply the methodology in this Framework Plan to the regional areas of Water Supplies • Develop Plan Level Preferred Approaches (solutions) for all water supplies within these regional group areas. For the purposes of preparing the RWRPs, each regional area has been subdivided into Study Areas to assist in the identification of both need and solutions, with all of the Study Areas to be considered holistically in each draft RWRP. 1.10 Summary Water Resources Planning plays an essential part in ensuring that we have a safe, secure, sustainable and reliable public water supply that supports Government Policy and Irish Water Policy. The NWRP will be Irish Water’s first strategic plan for water services and will form the basis for the transformation of these services in Ireland over the short, medium and long term. In this part of the Framework Plan we have: • Described the current status of water services in Ireland; • Outlined the specific challenges we face in serving the future needs of our customers; • Outlined the context for the NWRP and its relationship to other Irish Water strategies, Government policy and legislation; • Described our consultation on the NWRP to date; and • Explained the structure and phasing of the NWRP into this Framework Plan, and the RWRPs now being prepared. Figure 1-9 - Regional areas for roll-out of Phase 2 of the NWRP 19 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Leixlip Water Treatment Plant, County Dublin 20 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 2. Water Resources Planning and Key Concepts Context and Related Plan Water Resources Planning & Key Concepts 2 21 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points This section contains the following information: • The Resource Planning process that we have adopted for this Framework Plan including the use of Drinking Water Safety Plans (DWSPs) to assess risk • An introduction to the key water resource planning concepts 2.1 The Water Resources Planning Process Water Resources Plans are standard practice for other utility companies that are involved in drinking water supply on a regional basis. Irish Water needs to develop a National Water Resources Plan (NWRP) that is specific to the public water supply in Ireland, accounting for: • Ireland’s dispersed low-density population; • The historical development of our existing water supply system; and • The baseline condition of our assets and risks we must manage as part of our supplies. 2.1.1 Basis for this Plan This section outlines the reasons we selected a water resources planning methodology based on the methodology approved by the UK's Water Services Regulation Authority (OFWAT) out of the available alternatives. Prior to developing this Framework Plan, the resources planning methodologies used in other jurisdictions were reviewed, including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and the USA. Methods for water service provision vary greatly across the countries summarised in Table 2.1. Within the European Union, there is a common Legislative Framework across all countries, governed primarily by the Drinking Water Directive (98/83/EC) as amended and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) as amended. The regulation of water service providers varies considerably across the countries. The process in Ireland is most similar to that of the United Kingdom (including England and Wales) due to the similarities between the legislative framework for water services, catchment level populations, water asset bases and water supply asset bases, while recognising existing constraints such as data limitations. In contrast, the methodologies used in jurisdictions other than the UK arose in very different contexts and were not considered to be a viable starting point to develop a methodology suitable to the Irish context. Providers of water services are supervised by independent regulators for quality, environmental and financial regulation, namely the Environment Agency and OFWAT in the United Kingdom, and the Environmental Protection Agency and Commission for the Regulation of Utilities in Ireland. In most countries water service provision is fragmented, with large urban supplies managed separately to rural supplies or regionalised where a utility provides water services for urban and rural settlements within a defined geographical region. Irish Water is a single national water utility. However, in terms of population and scale, the public water supply in this state is of similar size to regional supplies in larger countries such as the United Kingdom and Italy. 2 22 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Although the Water Framework Directive and associated River Basin Management Plan, require cross jurisdiction collaboration and planning in relation to the environmental health of the natural raw water environment, most water service providers in the countries assessed do not have uniform prescribed guidelines or fully Integrated Water Resources Planning. However, in order to ensure resilience and to respond to external risks such as climate change, financial constraints and aging infrastructure, it is likely that there will be an increased focus on water resources planning in all countries into the short, medium and long term. Recently the OECD has recognised the need for its member countries to undertake strategic water supply planning to address the financial and environmental constraints on the provision of water services into the future5. As Irish Water is the single national utility for water services, we must take a proactive approach to strategic planning, and we have committed to developing a Water Resources Plan within our primary business objectives as set out in our Water Services Strategic Plan. There are a number of key considerations that influence the development of a water resources plan, including, legislative, regulatory, climatic and asset base, as listed in Table 2.1. In the development of this plan we reviewed these considerations across a number of jurisdictions and identified the commonalities when compared to Irish Water’s supply. Table 2.1 - Comparison of water resource planning considerations across jurisdictions R e p u b li c o f Ir e la n d F ra n c e G e rm a n y S p a in It a ly U n it e d K in g d o m A u s tr a li a N e w Z e a la n d C a n a d a U n it e d S ta te s Legislative Framework - - - - - - - - - - - Quality x x x x x x - - - - - Environment x x x x x x - - - - Regulation of Water Service Providers x - - - - x - - - - Provision – Local (fragmented), Regional, National N F F F F R F R R F Prescribed Process for Integrated Water Resource Planning - - - - - x x x - - Climate x - - - - x - - - - Technical Standards - Treatment Types x x x x x x x x x x - Distribution x - - - - x - - - - - Domestic x - - - - x - - - - 5 2019 OECD Challenges in Financing Water Supply, Sanitation and Flood Protection – Challenges in EU Member States and Policy options 23 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan As water services provision in Ireland has the most commonalities with that of the United Kingdom, we used the “Final Water Resources Planning Guidelines 2016”, developed by the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales in England and Wales respectively as the starting point for our Framework Plan. As summarised in Table 2.1, the main reasons for this decision are: • Ireland’s legislative framework for water services is similar to that in England and Wales (and the UK including Scotland & Northern Ireland); • Ireland's national population is similar to the population of some of the UK's water resources planning catchments; • Our natural climatic conditions are more similar than the other countries considered; • Our water asset base is technically comparable in terms of treatment, distribution and domestic plumbing arrangements (for example in Ireland and the UK, domestic plumbing systems use storage tanks in attics, as opposed to the pressurised systems more frequently used elsewhere in Europe. As these tanks can fill at night time, they need to be accounted for in minimum night flow calculations, and therefore impact leakage and demand estimation) • Our water supply asset base, particularly supplies in the large urban centres, developed in parallel to those in the UK with the same design philosophy, distribution process, and materials used; and • The regulatory framework for water services is similar, including the separation of responsibility for water services provision, environmental regulation and economic regulation. However, there are some key differences as described below: • Licencing: In general, water abstractions in other jurisdictions are licenced and environmental considerations have been factored into the long-term viability and planning for water sources. Historically in Ireland there has been limited regulation of abstraction of water from the natural environment for the purposes of public water supply. Within our existing asset base some abstractions may not be able to provide the supply of water to meet the demand required particularly during dry weather periods. As demand increases over time, this issue will become more evident and therefore needs to be given more consideration in our NWRP Framework Plan. • Quality: Many of our water supplies are at risk of not achieving the standards set out in the Drinking Water Regulations. They therefore require significant investment in maintenance and upgrades to ensure continued protection of public health of our customers. This may require us to commit capital investment into sites in the short term to address public health and water quality issues even though some of these supplies may not be viable in the medium to long term. Therefore, the NWRP Framework Plan must consider quality as well as quantity issues, and allow for interim steps to incrementally improve our water supplies. • Asset Performance: Due to historic under investment in capital maintenance, our asset base is in poor condition compared those in the UK. This manifests itself in high leakage rates across our networks and low levels of service to our customers. These deficits require sustained long-term investments and actions across many areas that will deliver gradual improvements over multiple investment cycles. Therefore, asset performance and reliability needs must be considered within our NWRP Framework Plan. • Data: Water Resources Planning in UK utilities follows a well-defined process that has been developed over a 25-year period and is built off prescribed operational data for both supply and demand. At present, our information systems were not designed for the purposes of water resources planning and do not capture all of the required data sets. Therefore, within this Framework Plan we have had to use a combination of best available data and surrogate data from other jurisdictions where necessary. 24 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • WRZs: As described above, the national public water supply in Ireland has significantly more WRZs than a typical UK utility, which reflects the dispersed population in Ireland and the way that water services have developed over time. This adds a level of complexity to our resources plan, due to the extent of identified need we must address. To mitigate against this, Irish Water will develop our Preferred Approaches (solutions) for each water supply within four Regional Water Resources Plans (RWRPs) as described above. 2.2 Tracking Progress through the Drinking Water Safety Plan Our existing water supplies are constantly changing as new assets are incorporated into our networks and existing assets deteriorate over time. The legislative environment within which we operate is also evolving and our natural water resources are impacted by activities within the catchments and by climate change. Irish Water’s NWRP will be developed on a five-year cycle, but within these cycles reviewed annually, as we must constantly monitor and react to emerging risk and need. Monitoring and feedback into the Framework Plan is committed to, as outlined in Chapter 8 of this document. The most effective way of monitoring our supplies is through a comprehensive risk assessment process that encompasses all steps in water supply from water sources (catchment) to consumer (tap). This approach is known as the Drinking Water Safety Plan (DWSP), as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in their Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality (2004) and Water Safety Plan Manual (2009). Historically DWSPs were predominantly used to assess risk in terms of drinking water quality and compliance with the Drinking Water Regulations. However, Irish Water proposes to incorporate the DWSP into the way we work and use it as the means to manage risk as part of our resources planning process. The completion of Drinking Water Safety Plans is also a requirement in the Recast Drinking Water Directive (2020). As such, we will expand our use of the DWSP to incorporate, quantity, quality and sustainability issues, as summarised in Figure 2.1. Figure 2.1 - Water Resources Planning – The DWSP approach 25 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan DWSPs must be set up to align with our WRZs in order to enable us to manage quantity, quality and sustainability risk from ‘source to tap’ on a catchment basis, for the short, medium and long-term demand horizons. This process will allow us to progress and track tactical and operational interventions, and to address the risks that sit outside of the capital investment planning process. This will become increasingly important when our abstractions are regulated and subjected to licenced conditions. 2.3 Key Concepts in Water Resources Planning Within this section we introduce some of the key concepts that we have used to develop the NWRP, including: • Water Resource Zones (WRZs); • Weather Event Planning Scenarios; • Levels of Service (LOS); and • Supply Demand Balance (SDB). Each concept is summarised in the paragraphs below. More detailed technical information is also provided in Appendix B (Planning Scenarios), Appendix C (Supply Assessment) and Appendix D (LoS), respectively. 2.3.1 Water Resources Zones and Water Supply Zones When assessing the need for water across a very large asset base, the first concept to be considered is the geographic definition of our water supplies. Figure 2.2 demonstrates a schematic of a simple water supply network, which consists of a water source with a treatment plant, and a network to deliver water to meet water demand in a particular area. Figure 2.2 – Simple Water Supply Schematic This configuration is only representative of our most basic remote water supplies or our more vulnerable large supplies that rely on a single source of water. As these types of supplies have no connectivity to a wider network, they have little resilience to planned or unplanned events within the asset base, which can result in water outages or boil water notices. Some of our larger water supplies consist of multiple interconnected sources and treatment plants, with the ability to transfer large amounts of water around trunk main networks. This allows improved resilience for planned and unplanned events. Management units need to be developed to enable us to describe, understand, manage and plan for water supplies both now and into the future. Therefore, our resource planning unit of management must allow us to consider not only the capital and operational interventions we need to make to the existing asset base, but also how we need to transform and improve connectivity between and within our supplies. 26 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 2.2 and Figure 2.3 outline the different scales for the management of water supplies required to function as a regulated water service provider, and how these relate to each other. Table 2.2 – Water Resource Spatial Management Units Scale Management Unit Purpose Regulatory Interface National WSSP Setting our Business Objectives DHLGH NWRP – Framework Plan Implementing the objectives of the WSSP and applicable legislation and guidance CRU, EPA NWRP Regional Resource Plan Group Areas Cumulative impact assessment. Prioritisation of investment and outcomes for regulated investment planning strategic funding requirements CRU, EPA Regional NWRP Regional Resource Plan Group Areas Developing of Asset Management Plans covering Irish Water’s Operational Regions, for the purpose of planning investment and improving operations CRU, EPA Sub Regional Catchments Assessing our water abstractions and wastewater discharges in relation to legislative requirements including WFD, Habitats Directive, Birds Directive and pending abstraction legislation EPA, DPHLG, NPWS Sub Regional Water Resource Zones (WRZ) Identifying baseline issues with Supply and Demand, forecasting future issues with Supply and Demand, drought and critical period planning, adaptive planning, bulk transfer and strategic storage requirements. Identifying baseline need in relation to water quality and barrier risk and assessing the customer base that will be impacted by a deterioration in water quality or the failure or non-performance of a Water Treatment Plant within a complex network. CRU, EPA Local Water Supply Zone (WSZ) Water Resource Zones consist of multiple Water Supply Zones. Water Supply Zones are used to delineate differing areas of our water supplies in order to assess the quality and compliance of drinking water, including within complex networks, where multiple water types are blended. The primary function of a WSZ is to report on Drinking water compliance to our regulator the EPA. EPA District Metered Area (DMAs) Each Water Supply Zone consists of a number of District Metered Areas. These are small discrete areas of our water distribution network which are used for leakage management, network control, emergency network interventions, and ensuring water quality at the extremities of our distribution networks. CRU 27 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 2.3 – Water Resource Planning Spatial Management Units All of these spatial units relate to each other, with DMAs being the smallest component part of our supply. Groups of DMAs form WSZs, groups of WSZs form WRZs and groups of WRZs are considered in the RWRPs. As there can be multiple water sources and water supply zones in a complex network, WRZs are the management units at which water resource planning is undertaken. WRZs represent an area where the supply and demand are largely self-contained. It is where the resources, supply infrastructure such as the water treatment plants, and the customers are interconnected. As part of this Framework Plan, the Supply Demand Balance is calculated for each WRZ. Examples of WRZs and WSZs are shown in Boxes 2.1 and 2.2. 28 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Box 2.1 – Example WRZ and WSZs In this example, there are two WRZs and three WSZs. WRZ “A" contains two WSZs, which are connected by a trunk main. If there was an outage at the water treatment plant in WSZ A1, the area could continue to be supplied from the water treatment plant located in WSZ A2 (should sufficient spare capacity be available). WRZ B contains just one WSZ and is not connected to any other WSZs. If an outage occurred at the source, treatment plant or trunk main network in this supply, the majority of customers could be impacted. 29 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Box 2.2 – Example Water Resource and Supply Zones 2 In this example there is one WRZ and three WSZs. A trunk main connects WSZs A1 and A2 with B1 to form a single WRZ. This arrangement offers greater resilience as, if there is an issue at the water treatment plant or with a source in WSZ B1, customer supply could be maintained from WSZ A1 or A2 (should spare capacity be available). As part of this Framework Plan, all of the WRZs that make up the national public water supply have been delineated in accordance with the process set out in Boxes 1.1 and 1.2. We have also associated the DMAs and WSZs to each WRZ, allowing us to monitor quality, quantity, capital maintenance need and risk across all of our supplies. WRZ boundaries are dynamic and can change over time, for example, if we construct new trunk mains to connect separate water supplies (see Box 2.2). To establish a measurable baseline for the NWRP, we have defined our WRZs as they will be in 2021, which includes planned and ongoing improvement to our water supply networks, as set out in our current Capital Investment Cycle. There are 539 WRZs in Ireland. Each zone varies in size from small rural systems with populations of less than 30 to the GDA with a population of 1.7 million. A comparison with the WRZs from a number of UK water utilities is shown in Table 2.3 and Figure 2.4. Similar sized populations served with fewer WRZs with more connectivity can achieve economies of scale and bring resilience and reliability of supply to customers. Our current model presents challenges of efficiency, consistent maintenance and service performance. A secondary effect is that in many WRZs, we have fewer connections per unit length of pipe, a factor that impacts leakage statistics and comparisons. 30 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 2.3 - UK water utilities WRZ comparison Water Utility Number of WRZs Total number of customers Northern Ireland Water 7 1.7 million Welsh Water 24 3 million United Utilities 4 7 million Southern Water 10 3 million Scottish Water approx. 220 5 million Irish Water 539 4.2 million Figure 2.4 shows that we have significantly more WRZs than our UK counterparts, which reflects the dispersed population in Ireland and the way that water services has developed over time. Figure 2.4 - UK water company WRZ comparison We expect the number of WRZs in Ireland to reduce as we invest in providing strategic infrastructure throughout the country. This process will be driven by the requirement to deliver the required quality and quantity of water in the most efficient manner. This rationalisation journey will require both new sources and substantial provision of trunk mains and reservoirs, with an associated need for investment. However, it is likely that we will have to continue to operate a substantial number of WRZs for the foreseeable future, particularly in low density and remote areas. As explained above, a phased approach to the development of a national water resources plan is needed in light of the fact that we are at an early stage of this process and have a far greater number of diverse WRZs than our UK counterparts. Northern Ireland Water Welsh Water United Utilities Southern Water Scottish Water Irish Water 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 To ta l N u m b e r o f C u s to m e rs ( M ill io n ) Number of Water Resource Zones 31 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 2.3.2 Weather Event Planning Scenarios As access to a good quality uninterrupted water supply is essential for public health, we must ensure that our water supplies can withstand changes in climatic conditions. Although we live in a temperate climate, as global temperatures continue to rise, Ireland may experience more frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts and storms. Irish Water must plan for these events and develop a resilient water supply system to limit the impacts of extreme events on our customers. During certain years, the water supply systems in Ireland have experienced major stress. For example, during Storm Emma (2018), there was an increase in burst water mains due to periods of sub-zero temperatures followed by relatively rapid warming. In contrast, summer 2018 and spring 2020 saw prolonged warm dry weather resulting in low flows and decreased water levels in our rivers and lakes. This resulted in reduced water availability for our public water supplies which also coincided with an increase in customer demand. Table 2.4 outlines the four Weather Event Planning Scenarios considered in this Framework Plan. More information on these scenarios is contained within Appendix B. Table 2.4 – Weather Event Planning Scenarios Scenario Scenario Description and Weather Type Feels like NYAA Normal Year Annual Average: The normal year scenario describes the demand and supply available to Irish Water in a typically average weather year DYAA Dry Year Annual Average: The dry year scenario is when there is low rainfall but no constraints on demand. Demands are based on the average daily demands experienced over the year under “dry” year weather conditions. Demands would be higher than in normal years DYCP Dry Year Critical Period: This occurs within the dry year, generally a few weeks during the summer where demands can be significantly above the annual average WCP Winter Critical Period – The WCP generally occurs as a result of Freeze–Thaw incidents such as Storm Emma in 2018. High demands during these periods are driven by an increase in leaks from burst of pipes as a result of the very low temperatures Supply availability for a WRZ varies for each Planning Scenario. For example, when we consider surface water sources such as rivers or lakes, more water is naturally available for abstraction during winter months than summer months. Therefore, in a WRZ supplied by surface water sources, more water will be available during the Winter Critical Period (WCP) than during other planning scenarios, and the limiting factor on supply availability is usually water treatment capacity or network capacity. Whereas, in the same WRZ, during a Dry Year Critical Period, the water source tends to be the limiting factor. Demand also fluctuates under the four Weather Event Planning Scenarios. Figure 2.5 illustrates that during a prolonged period of warm dry weather typically associated with a Dry Year Critical Period (DYCP), our customers can use significantly more water than during other scenarios, particularly if temperatures are high. 32 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan During a WCP, the demand is even higher due to water lost from the extremities of the network. Cold weather makes pipes more prone to bursts and impacts shallow private connection pipes that feed individual properties from our distribution mains. Connection pipes are a particular problem as historically many of these were laid at very shallow depths, leaving them prone to frost damage. Figure 2.5 – Demand profiles for Weather Event Planning Scenarios We use ‘peaking factors’ to calculate how demand changes for each Planning Scenario. Ideally, peaking factors would be based on historical data of water use during the planning scenarios. However, country- wide reliable historical data is not presently available, so we have used data from other water utilities with similar characteristics. Further information on peaking factors and how they are applied is provided in Chapters 3 and 4. Box 2.3 provides context of the weather conditions in Ireland. Box 2.3 – Drought Conditions in Ireland Ireland is known for its rain, so it’s easy to assume there’s plenty of water available. But historical records show that in the past Ireland experienced extreme weather conditions and droughts more frequently than we have done in recent years. Appendix E Figure 1.1 shows a heatmap of drought severity from 1850 to 2020 using rainfall gauge data from 10 Met Éireann synoptic stations chosen for drought monitoring as part of this plan. Historic data indicates that Ireland experienced significant drought conditions approximately once every 10 years between the 1850’s and 1970’s. However, as the majority of our supplies have been developed and expanded since the 1970’s they have never been tested against these types of historical extreme weather conditions. Therefore, our asset base may be vulnerable to changes in weather patterns as a result of climate change. 33 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 2.3.3 Level of Service Level of Service (LoS) refers to the reliability of the supply that our customers can expect to receive and is expressed as a frequency or return period of supply failure (refer to Appendix D Level of Service). For example, if the LoS is stated as 1 in 50, as a consumer, you would only ever expect to experience a water outage or severe limitations to your supply, on average, once every 50 years. This standard of service is particularly important in larger supplies, where the social and economic consequences of failure to supply are significant and where mitigation measures such as tankered supplies are not feasible due to scale of demand. The LoS in Ireland varies according to location, ranging from lower than 1 in 10 to better than 1 in 50. As summarised in Figure 2.6, approximately 50% of the population are at risk of receiving a LoS of lower than 1 in 50 during normal conditions (NYAA). In this Framework Plan, Supply Demand Balance assessments have been developed for each WRZ based on a 1 in 50 Year LoS. This means Irish Water will aim to provide a uniform minimum of 1 in 50- year LoS across the entire public water supply over time. However, it should be noted that while customers within a WRZ with this LoS should not expect a major disruption to supply, they may experience some infrequent water use restrictions such as water conservation orders. The identification of and response to drought conditions that exceed these return periods is described in Appendix E Drought Planning. Given that the current LoS in Ireland is low compared to international norms, the minimum of 1 in 50 LoS was set as a comparatively achievable target until our data and understanding of our water supplies improves. In comparison, in the UK, current best practice is to provide a 1 in 100-year LoS. This may take multiple investment cycles to realise and is not considered to be realistic for this first iteration of the NWRP. The drought during June and July 2018 was a short but significant weather event, which had a major impact on Ireland’s water bodies and the public water supply, in particular in the south, east and midlands of the country. During this event we did not experience a loss of supply to all of the areas identified as having a LoS of less than 1 in 50 years, as outlined in Figure 2.6. This was due to the emergency measures implemented by Irish Water in conjunction with our Local Authority partners. These measures included: operating treatment facilities beyond their design capacities, tankering water to local communities, network management, implementing water conservation orders, and in extreme cases creating temporary obstructions in water bodies to maintain flow into our treatment plants. All of these measures represent undesirable and high-risk operations, potentially compromising the natural environment, impacting our ability to provide compliant drinking water and risking damage to our supply assets. Normal LoS considerations in water resource planning place the focus on ensuring that our supplies are robust enough to produce enough water to meet demand across all Weather Event Planning Scenarios, thus reducing or removing the need for high risk operations. Due to the condition of our asset base, Irish Water also needs to consider maintenance requirements when assessing Levels of Service. The condition of our distribution networks or treated water storage availability also has an impact on interruptions to our customer’s supplies. Therefore, as part of Irish Water’s water resources planning process, we will also identify key needs in relation to asset renewal and network requirements. 34 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 2.6 - LoS in each WRZ for a normal year (NYAA) 35 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 2.3.4 Supply Demand Balance The Supply Demand Balance (SDB) is the difference between the water we have available in our supplies compared to the demand for water under each Weather Event Planning Scenario. In terms of supply availability, the SDB considers water availability in the natural environment, current abstractions, water treatment capacity, process losses, trunk main constraints, and required allowances to ensure continuity of supply during planned and unplanned events. When all of these factors have been considered, we can develop a Water Available for Use (WAFU) for each water resource zone. As part of our supply forecasts we must consider reducing supply availability due to climate change and risks in relation to sustainability driven reductions in allowable abstraction from waterbodies. We must produce enough water supply at the top of our distribution networks to ensure that customers receive the volume of water they require at the extremities of a complex distribution network. The demand for water must therefore account for network efficiency and losses across the network during distribution. When we assess demand for water as part of the Supply Demand Balance, we assess the current water balance which includes; domestic demand, non-domestic demand, operational usage (such as flushing water mains and fire hydrants), apparent losses and leakage. As part of demand forecasting, we must consider, leakage reduction, growth in demand, and allow for uncertainties (provision of headroom). A deficit in the SDB means that the demand for water is higher than the available supply. In the event of an identified deficit, we consider what actions could be taken in response, e.g. reduce future demand, increase supply or a combination of both. Figure 2.7 identifies the components of the SDB. In Chapters 3 and 4 of the Framework Plan, we outline how each of these components is calculated. Box 2.4 shows an example SDB projection over 25 years. Figure 2.7 - Components of the SDB 36 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Box 2.4 – Example SDB This Figure demonstrates the demand for water increasing over time, which is typical of a growing population and economy. Our forecasts and assessments of demand require assumptions, including data accuracy and the reliability of our future projections. The available water supply, WAFU is anticipated to reduce over the 25-year period due to climate change impacts. There is also a risk that in some locations that our WAFU will need to reduce over time, in order to meet the requirements of the then current River Basin Management Plan or abstraction licensing, where the current level of abstraction is considered to be causing environmental damage. Headroom is the term given to a buffer in the SDB. It accounts for the uncertainty with data and the assumptions used in the supply and demand estimates and forecasts. The headroom allowance is added to the demand forecast (as set out in Chapter 4). In this example, the SDB is in surplus from Years 1 to 9. The WAFU is decreasing due to climate change and a deficit occurs in the SDB from Year 10. This deficit increases through to Year 25 reaching 20 million litres per day (Ml/d). In this example, there is a sudden drop in the WAFU in Year 11 due to potential licensing constraints affecting abstraction. Interventions would be required to reduce demand or increase supply to address the deficit shown in this example. 37 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 2.4 Summary As Irish Water is at the start of the water resources planning journey, we have had to adapt best international practice to suit the constraints and condition of our existing asset base. We have also had to amend our approach to the resource planning process to reflect the data and information systems that we have available to us at present. In this section of the Framework Plan we have summarised: • The Resource Planning process that we have adopted for this Framework Plan including the use of DWSP to monitor and assess risk; We have also summarised some of the key concepts in water resources planning, that are necessary to understand the methodologies outlined in the subsequent Chapters, including: • Water Resource Zones; • Weather Event Planning Scenarios; • Levels of Service; and • Supply Demand Balance. In the next three Chapters of this document, we provide an overview of how we assess our current and future supply availability and demand requirements. We also identify our current needs in relation to quality and performance across the existing water supply asset base. 38 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 3 Identify the Need - Public Water Supply 1 Identify the Need – Public Water Supply 3 39 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points In this Chapter we: • Outline and describe how we estimate the components of Supply • Set out the current Water Available for Use (WAFU) and how we expect this to change over the next 25 years Figure 3.1 – NWRP Process – Supply Forecast 3 40 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 3.1 Introduction to Supply To plan for future water availability, Irish Water must determine the amount of water that we can currently supply to our customers and then forecast how this might change over the next 25 years (Figure 3.1). The amount of water we can currently supply depends on a number of factors including: • The quantity of “raw water” we can safely abstract from the natural environment, when considering the Level of Service, we strive to achieve; • The amount of this water we can convert to drinking water using our existing treatment facilities; and • How much of this treated drinking water we can send into our distribution systems via our bulk distribution networks (trunk mains). By considering all of these factors we can properly identify the constraints in our water supply systems. In some cases, we may have an abundance of natural raw water, however, we are constrained by the capacity of our current treatment facilities. Conversely, in other areas, we may have appropriate treatment capacity, but our existing natural supplies are at risk, particularly during drought conditions. Our treatment processes can also come under pressure when raw water quality deteriorates following storm events. In order to ensure that water customers receive safe and secure supplies, we must also consider reliability and risk to supply in our assessments. This is due to the fact that water sources, treatment facilities and bulk distribution networks cannot operate at 100% capacity all of the time. When we account for availability, capacity in production, capacity in transfer mains, reliability and risk within our existing supplies, we call the amount of water we have available to supply our customers Water Available for Use (WAFU). This section outlines how we calculate the current WAFU in each Water Resource Zone (WRZ) and how we forecast that this will change over time. Figures 3.2 and 3.3 illustrate the steps involved: Step 1: Calculate the Hydrological Yield Step 2: Allow for Sustainable Operation Step 3: Calculate the Deployable Output (DO) Step 4: Allow for Outage Step 5: Calculate the Current WAFU Step 6: Forecast the components of supply to derive the Future WAFU Figure 3.2 - Summary of Supply Components 41 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 3.3 - WAFU Calculation Process Further details on each of these steps are provided in the sections below. 3.2 Step 1 – Calculate the Hydrological Yield To determine the WAFU we must understand the Hydrological Yield, which is the amount of water that is available from a source, be it a river, lake or groundwater body. The Hydrological Yield is dependent on the size, location and hydrological properties of the catchment from which we abstract and the Level of Service we aim to provide. At present, we abstract more water from surface water sources (rivers and lakes) than from groundwater sources (boreholes and springs) for the provision of public water supply. This is illustrated in Figure 3.4 which shows that although we have 293 surface water sources and 797 groundwater sources, our surface water sources provide 83% of our total supply, whilst groundwater sources provide only 17% of the supply. This is driven by a number of factors, including the historical development of public water supplies, complexity in assessing the availability of groundwater as a water source, and the natural geological conditions in Ireland. Whilst most of Ireland’s bedrock is classified as an aquifer, it is relatively poor at storing and transmitting groundwater, thus limiting the volumes available for abstraction and in some cases resilience during dry periods. Furthermore, 7.5% of the total national supply abstracts from vulnerable groundwater sources pumped from karstified and fissured limestone bedrock, which may be susceptible to surface contamination. Figure 3.4 – Supply Summary 3.2.1 Surface Water Sources The volume of water available to us from our surface water sources naturally varies throughout the year. Less water is typically available from April to September, and significantly less if we experience a drought. Our method for calculating the Hydrological Yield from River and Lake sources is summarised below. A more detailed outline of how the hydrological yield is calculated is provided in Appendix C. River Sources We consider the following information is required to determine the hydrological yield for a river source: • Catchment area; • The standard annual average rainfall for the catchment; • Q95, the river flow which is equalled or exceeded 95% of the time; 42 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • Qmean; the river flow which is equalled or exceeded 50% of the time, and • Slope of the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) see Box 3.1. Where possible, data has been taken from nearby river gauging stations to produce FDCs for our abstraction sites. However, in Ireland many river sources are ungauged, and to ensure a nationally consistent approach across the plan, a “transposition method” has been used. Using this method, data is taken from a gauging station with a similar catchment and used as a “donor gauge” to produce the FDC for an ungauged river abstraction source. Based on discussions with the EPA, for the Framework Plan, we developed a list of over 100 “donor catchments” that were used to produce FDCs for all our ungauged abstraction sites. Further information on the “transposition method” is provided in Appendix C. Box 3.1 – Example of an FDC The interaction between a river catchment and the prevailing weather conditions means flows can vary between different rivers. We summarise this variation in flows through Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). An FDC describes the amount of time that the flow in a river is likely to equal or exceed a particular rate at a specific location. The time period is stated as a percentage so, for example, the 95th percentile flow, which is known as the Q95 flow, is the flow that is equalled or exceeded 95% of the time. FDCs for three example river catchments in Ireland are shown in the graph below. An FDC is shown for the Coomhola River. This is a small, steep upland catchment, which is referred to as being a ‘flashy’ river catchment type, as it will respond quickly to rainfall. This FDC is compared to the River Aughrim which is a larger, lowland river and is a ‘flatter’ river catchment type that takes longer to respond to rainfall. The graph shows that the ‘flashy’ Coomhola River experiences a wider range of flows and would be expected to have a comparatively smaller Q95 or low flow compared to the ‘flatter’ River Aughrim. The River Suck, which is a large, moderately sloped catchment in Galway, has an FDC which lies between the flashy and flat river catchment types. 43 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan To calculate the Hydrological Yield, we then input the FDC and other information for each source including rainfall data into the Institute of Hydrology Report No.108 Low flow estimation in the United Kingdom Method. We then use this method to calculate the Hydrological Yield for a given source based on maintaining a 1 in 50 Year LoS. As presently no suitable equivalent techniques have been developed specifically for Irish rivers, we have adopted this method from the UK. The climatic and physical similarities between Irish and UK river catchments facilitates the application of this method with an acceptable degree of accuracy until an Irish specific technique is developed. Lakes and Reservoirs A similar approach is used to determine the Hydrological Yield for lakes and impounding reservoir sources. In addition to the information used to assess river sources, in order to determine the Hydrological Yield in the lake or impounding reservoir we also need to consider the water storage available. The following information is required: • The surface area of the lake or reservoir; • The potential rate of evaporation; and • The usable storage which is the volume between the highest and the lowest potential water levels. Any water that is stored below the lowest potential lake or impounding reservoir level is known as “emergency” or “dead storage” and is not considered to be available for use in our hydrological yield calculations. Example of a lake water source For most of our lakes and impounding reservoirs all of this information is not available. Therefore, the potential storage has been estimated based on the surface area with an assumed a storage depth of 1 metre. This is conservative in terms of likely infrastructure but aligns with WFD standards for lakes that consider the impacts of water level fluctuations on lake margin ecology. There is a need to undertake a significant exercise to collate depth and intake data for all lake sites. Refer to section 7.3.4.1 for a summary of the activities we will carry out in terms of supply side data improvements. 44 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan We then calculate the Hydrological Yield using the available storage, FDC, rainfall data and other information using the Institute of Hydrology Report No.108 Low flow estimation in the United Kingdom Method. The Hydrological Yield is also based on maintaining a 1 in 50 Year LoS. 3.2.2 Groundwater Sources Groundwater resources are important to Irish Water, currently providing 17% of our total supply by volume. This percentage increases significantly in certain counties, with groundwater being the main source, for example, in Laois, Offaly, Roscommon and North Cork. Furthermore, Irish Water have almost 800 individual groundwater abstractions, many of which have proven to be a dependable water supply both in terms of yield and natural water quality. Ground water sources have been considered in tandem with surface water sources for the purposes of identifying potential new water sources within this Plan. Though there are a few exceptions, the volume that is obtained from an abstraction, e.g. a borehole, is generally less than 1 Ml/d. This is largely dependent on the inherent hydrogeology and Appendix C provides further information on the aquifer categories and the expected yields. Yields of wells and boreholes are assessed from sustained pump tests with monitoring of boreholes required to help confirm hydrogeological yields. The information is variable, from well documented, comprehensive and reliable tests and data, to a paucity of information on yield. Irish Water will aim to complete site-specific studies of groundwater availability. This activity will also be driven by the requirements of the pending legislation and regulations on abstraction from the natural environment. This will also be important to understand the impacts of climate change. Groundwater as a resource may be more resilient than surface water in different parts of the country. Irish Water are committed to improving hydrogeological data collection to better understand and characterise our groundwater resources and to be able to work collaboratively with Geological Survey Ireland and the Environmental Protection Agency, particularly in relation to their respective groundwater monitoring programmes. Irish Water monitor water levels on individual supplies for operational reasons and it is Irish Waters intention to feed this information into the national groundwater monitoring programmes. As information becomes available, we will feed this into our supply demand balance assessments, in accordance with the process set out in Chapter 8, of this Framework Plan. Groundwater potential is assessed from historical data on wells and boreholes, and used in the hydrogeological categorisation of aquifers, informing potential for abstraction. In general, groundwater potential is constrained by geological factors primarily: glacial till, shallow aquifers with surface connectivity and limestone bedrock with open fissures and surface interface (as well as high levels hardness, iron and manganese) as frequent constraints. Due to variable existing information on some of our supplies, the potential for large variations in sub- surface geology, even over short distances, producing robust desktop assessments of water availability from our existing groundwater abstractions is difficult (Figure 3.5). Ideally, yield estimates would be based on a three-dimensional assessment of the geology within the vicinity of the supply, supplemented with long term records on pumping and drawdown of water levels over many years. 45 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 3.5 - Conceptual Model of a Groundwater Abstraction For the purposes of the Framework Plan a simple methodology has been developed for assessing the Hydrological Yield of our groundwater sites. This is carried out by: · Collecting and collating site-specific data, this may include more reliable information on the yield for the source; · Location, abstraction rate(s) and site configuration are often the minimum information available. The operational data provides useful information on the yield, and assumptions can be made around the average production from each site. It can be assumed the average abstraction value is an initial estimate of the yield. Most local authorities in the case of boreholes, would have drilled and sought the maximum yield possible through 72-hour pumping tests. This provides an initial yield. Additional information on performance in prolonged dry weather periods is providing supporting information on yields. Irish Water are continuously improving data acquisition and integration and this will be used to improve the yield estimates; · Additionally, to assist in a desk top assessment of the yield where we have limited information, a preliminary indicative check is done by defining the Zone of Contribution (ZOC), or the land area that contributes water to the well or spring; and, calculating a water balance for the source using the average abstraction rate and the annual average recharge rate as estimated from the Geological Survey Ireland (GSI) recharge maps. The water balance estimates the area needed to supply the yield and is then compared to the delineated ZOC (Appendix C). · As further assessments are made and relevant data collected, iterative improvements will be made to the yield estimates. 46 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 3.3 Step 2 – Allow for Sustainable Operation Sustainable Operation reflects the amount of water we can supply based on the capacity of our water treatment plants and bulk distribution network. It also accounts for unavoidable water losses that occur during treatment (known as Process Losses). 3.3.1 WTP and Network Capacity Our water treatment plants (WTPs) and the distribution networks transferring treated drinking water from these WTPs to homes and businesses have maximum capacities. This maximum capacity can limit the volume of water that can be obtained from a source, regardless of the hydrological yield or raw water availability. We assess capacity of the WTPs and network supplying each WRZ to see if this is the factor limiting water available for use. 3.3.2 Process Losses All production processes from manufacturing to energy production to construction involve losses. This is difference between the amount of raw materials required at the start of a process to deliver the amount of product produced at the end of a process. For example, in furniture manufacturing, some pieces of wood end up as saw dust or offcuts, in energy generation some output is lost through efficiency of turbines. For water treatment it is the same, there is a difference between the volume of raw water we transfer to our treatment facilities and the volume of drinking water that is produced. This loss is known as Process Loss. It is an unavoidable element of water supply and is generally a function of the raw water quality and the amount of treatment required to bring this water up to the standards required by the drinking water regulations. The amount of water ‘lost’ as Process Losses depends on the type of water treatment plant. There are three main types of water treatment plants operated by Irish Water, summarised as follows: • WTPs which include some type of chemical coagulation and filtration process, where losses would be moderate to high. These types of treatment plants are usually at surface water or ground water sites where there is a potential for contamination of the water source; • WTPs which include filtration plus disinfection processes, where losses would be moderate to low. These treatment plants are usually required at well protected sources with high raw water quality, and moderate to low potential for contamination; • WTPs which involve disinfection only, where losses would also be moderate to low. This type of treatment process is usually only applied to well protected and constructed groundwater abstractions, where there is no potential for contamination and continuous monitoring is in place. The losses are associated with small quantities used for chlorine residual monitoring, which can account for 1-2% of small output plants. Other Treatment Processes, such as Desalination or Effluent reuse involve significant process losses, due to the quality, for example, it can take over two litres of saline water to produce 1 litre of drinking water in a desalination process. Table 3.1 summarises the Process Loss percentages that are applied to the three treatment plant types in our supply assessments, when we have no site specific WTP data available. These losses are consistent with industry standards. 47 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Filtration of water In some of our larger WTPs, where raw water quality is very good, coupled with performing assets and careful operational practice, process losses can be significantly less than these amounts. For example, at the largest water treatment plant in Ireland, Ballymore Eustace, although a Coagulation, Flocculation, Clarification and Filtration process is used, process losses are typically less than 2%. Where site specific information has been made available, it has been used within the Framework Plan. It is the aim of Irish Water to collate site specific data on process losses for all WTPs which will account for variability in raw water quality and incorporate this data into its water resource planning as it becomes available. As part of our Options Appraisal Methodology, we will consider the possibility of plant upgrades to reduce process losses as an option to address supply demand balance deficits, where feasible. Table 3.1 - Percentage Process Losses Accounted for the different treatment types WTP treatment type Process Losses (%) Coagulation, flocculation, clarification and filtration (includes waste residuals) - 8 Filtration and disinfection - 3 Disinfection only - 1 3.4 Step 3 – Calculate the Deployable Output The Deployable Output (DO) is the total amount of water that we can supply to our customers from our water treatment plants and through our distribution networks before we account for risk and reliability in terms of planned and unplanned events across our supply asset base. 48 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan The DO calculation for a simple WRZ consisting of a single source, feeding a WTP that in turn feeds a bulk distribution network is determined as: • The hydrological yield of the water source minus process losses, where the Hydrological Yield is the constraining factor; or • The WTP output and/or bulk distribution network capacity where the hydrological yield is not the constraining factor. For more complex WRZs where there are multiple raw water sources, supplying multiple WTPs with complex bulk distribution networks, we use an industry standard water resource simulation model called Aquator to calculate DO. Using Aquator, the DO is developed based on a behavioural modelling analysis of the supply system, using long-term inflow time series that have been derived for each of the sources. The model is tested to failure at a daily time step to support increasing levels of demand in a series of iterations, allowing a DO to be generated for a given LoS. The DO for each of our water supplies, where the DO is not constrained by WTP capacity, is a function of hydrological yield and can vary considerably over the course of the year. In winter conditions, when precipitation and water availability in the natural environment is high, treatment capacity and bulk transfer capacity tend to be the limiting factor in DO. In contrast in summer periods or drought conditions, water availability in the natural environment tends to be the limiting factor. As Irish Water must supply water in all conditions, we calculate DO for each WRZ for the following Weather Event Planning Scenarios (as described in Chapter 2). • Normal Weather (NYAA); • Dry Conditions (DYAA); • Drought Conditions (DYCP); and • Winter Conditions (WCP). The DO calculation considers the variability in the natural environment and the design parameters around our WTPs and bulk transfer networks. It does not consider reliability of our assets or the planned or unplanned activities that form part of normal water services operations. 3.5 Step 4 – Allowance for Outage An Outage is a planned or unplanned event that results in a short-term reduction in DO. An outage might occur when quality in our water sources deteriorates, when a piece of equipment fails at a source or treatment plant, or when we need to carry out planned maintenance. For our larger supplies we apply an Outage factor to account for this within our calculation of the WAFU. Our assets do not operate at 100% output all of the time; therefore, it is necessary to cater for the planned and unplanned activities that take place across our asset base throughout the year. Also, fluctuations in raw water quality or pollution events may occur which will reduce the volume of water which can be sustainably produced at our treatment plants for a period of time, or maintenance activities may need to be carried out on a continuous programme. Unplanned events such as the failure of a component of one of our WTPs, a break along one of our raw water intake mains or bulk distribution mains must be considered. These are normal characteristics of a water supply system that result in an “outage”. In water supplies where raw water sources are well protected and sustainable, coupled with high performance, appropriately designed and well-maintained assets, the frequency and duration of an outage will be low compared to a poorly planned, designed and maintained supply. However, there is 49 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan always a risk of outage, and as part of water resource planning, outage allowances are applied to DO calculations. Outage allowances are usually calculated for each WRZ individually based on a history of planned and unplanned outage events, severe weather interruptions, water quality issues, pollution events and an analysis of cause to determine future allowances. At present, due to limited availability of historical operational records, an individual analysis is not possible for the majority of our supplies. In other jurisdictions, outage allowances range from 2% to 9%. Further to a review of other water utilities planning assumptions in similar types of WRZs and our own experience, for this Framework Plan we have applied a 5% outage allowance to Large and Very Large WRZs only. This provides a reasonable average allowance in loss of deployable output but data collection to capture actual outage events is a key data gathering requirement. For medium and small sized WRZs where there is often only one source of water, there is no benefit of applying an outage allowance, as in these cases, any significant incident will result in the total loss of supply. Table 3.2 summarises the outage allowances included in the SDB assessment, in our Framework Plan. Table 3.2 - NWRP Outage Allowance WRZ Outage allowance Very Large zones (> 200Ml/d) 5% Large zones (10–200Ml/d) 5% Medium zones (1–10Ml/d) 0% Small zones (<1Ml/d) 0% 3.6 Step 5 – Calculate the Baseline WAFU When considering supply availability as part of water resources planning, all the component parts of the individual water supplies that have the potential to impact on our ability to produce and distribute water to our customers are considered. This allows us to identify the limiting factors in our current supplies, and the interventions which may be required. It also allows us to identify the components of our supplies that have unacceptable risks associated with them in terms of maintaining a safe, secure and reliable water supply. As shown in Figure 3.6, an analysis of each WRZ considers all the factors outlined in Steps 1 to 4, including hydrological yield, sustainable operation and outage allowance. Step 5 is to calculate the WAFU. As outlined previously, this is estimated as: Figure 3.6 – WAFU Calculation Process The WAFU is estimated for each of the Weather Event Planning Scenarios described in Chapter 2 of the Plan. 50 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 3.7 Step 6 – Forecast the components of supply to derive the Future WAFU As the purpose of water resources planning is to ensure that we have sufficient water supplies in place for our customers now and into the future, we take the baseline WAFU developed for each WRZ and forecast how it may change over the next 25 years. Many of the current challenges with existing water supplies relate to asset performance, characterised by undersized WTPs or inadequate treatment processes. Across our groundwater supplies, uncertainties around sustainable yield are also an issue. These deficiencies are largely within our control and, although the scale of funding required to address them will be significant, they can be addressed over time through investment, improved operation, maintenance and site investigations. However, in the coming years the emerging issues which have the greatest potential to impact on our ability to supply water will relate to the natural environment and will largely be outside of our control. As noted in Chapter 1, our water supply network developed over time, usually based on the need in the immediate vicinity. Some of our 1,090 abstractions are at risk of not meeting the requirements of pending abstraction legislation which will be based on environmental sustainability. In addition to this, the majority of our supplies were developed during a relatively consistent climatic period in Ireland over the past 50 years, with comparatively few dry periods compared to the long-term historical record. The forecasts for future WAFU must consider how climate change impacts may affect the hydrological yield of our sources, which may not be resilient to more extreme weather conditions. Due to the condition of our existing supply asset base, particularly in relation to compliance with drinking water regulations, there will be competing needs for limited financial resources in the coming years. This means essential funding requirements to improve compliance and the condition of our asset base will limit the amount of funding available to move towards a more sustainable supply model in the short to medium term. As part of the Framework Plan, the impact of climate change and anticipated abstraction legislation on water supply forecasts have been considered. 3.7.1 Climate Change Our WAFU forecast considers the impact of climate change on our existing sources by adjusting the future hydrological yield of each source using Ireland-specific climate change factors, which were developed by the ICARUS (Irish Climate Analysis and Research Unit) Department of NUI Maynooth in 2008. The work involved assessing nine catchment types across Ireland to develop seasonal adjustment factors that could be applied to hydrological yield. The central estimate of the impact of climate change on water availability has been included within the SDB for each WRZ. The uncertainty around the central estimate has been included in the headroom calculations in line with UK guidance. In 2018, Irish Water commissioned further research with the ICARUS Department in NUI Maynooth under the Climate Sensitive Catchments Project. This project has used the latest climate change projections and a best practice risk-based approach to assess the impacts of climate change on flows in 206 catchments in Ireland. The Climate Sensitive Catchments Project is not included in this Framework Plan, as we must develop an operational means of applying the research outputs into our Hydrological Yield assessments. Based on our work to date, it is clear that the full application of the techniques presented in the study to all our surface water sources will require a multi-year programme of work including: 51 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • Hydrological measurements; • The development of additional rainfall-runoff models; • Groundwater studies; and • An assessment of the significance of reservoir and lake storage on a catchment’s runoff response. In addition to this, as part of the TRANSLATE project, Met Éireann, are developing standardised national climate projections for Ireland and climate services support. This will provide the necessary information requirements for sectoral adaptation planning. Irish Water will work with Met Éireann to adopt these projections when they become available, in order to ensure that our NWRP is always aligned with national policy. Geological Survey Ireland have embarked on a groundwater monitoring and modelling project that seeks to understand the impact of climate change on the groundwater resources in Ireland. This will assist in the sustainable yield assessments and help monitor and understand operational data. It will help indicate susceptible supplies and enable Irish Water adapt resource management. This data will be factored into assessments when available. As our understanding of the impacts of climate change improves, incremental improvements will be incorporated into the SDB calculations, in accordance with the process set out in Chapter 8 of this Framework Plan. Additional information on Irish Water’s approach to considering the effects of future climate change and the Climate Sensitive Catchments Project is provided in Appendix F. 3.7.2 Abstraction Legislation Most of our abstractions have been in operation long before any modern environmental legislation. Historically, when new supplies were developed, the emphasis was placed on the capacity of the WTPs or the capacity of the bulk transfer mains. Although some consideration was given to the sustainability of water bodies, through the requirements for environmental assessment in compliance with the Planning and Development Acts as amended, many water supplies pre-dated this. Most surface abstractions in recent decades, apart from those from ESB hydroelectric schemes, were approved under the Water Supplies Act 1942, which included some level of hydrological assessment. However, many of our smaller supplies were never formally permitted. More stringent environmental standards may mean that surface water and groundwater abstractions that were once regarded as acceptable may now be considered to be unsustainable, particularly in dry weather conditions, in the context of new legislation. These abstractions may in the future be subject to modifications to meet the requirements of the WFD. These more stringent environmental standards may generate uncertainty in some of our current estimates of deployable output but we will work with the EPA through the expected abstraction licencing process to understand any potential impacts, and these will then be integrated back into the assessments, and options updated. Coarse screening and fine screening assessments carried out as part of the development of feasible options considered in the NWRP, have incorporated theoretically conservative standards and limits, in order to mitigate this uncertainty. In summer 2018, the Government published a General Scheme for the Water Environment (Abstractions) Bill (Abstractions Bill), which proposed alignment of abstraction licencing with the requirements of the Water Framework Directive. The Government approved an amended General Scheme of the Abstractions Bill in September 2020. We are assessing existing abstractions, and taking a precautionary approach, based on our current understanding of how proposed abstraction legislation might be applied, as outlined in Appendix C. This assessment suggests that certain schemes may be subject to reductions in abstraction. Figure 3.7 shows how the anticipated abstraction legislation could change the way that we calculate the WAFU . 52 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 3.7 – Potential Impact of the Abstraction Legislation on the WAFU Calculation Process As the Abstractions Bill is still being developed, we do not have full visibility of the future regulatory regime. We have therefore not progressed through a theoretical licencing process on a site by site basis and cannot reliably include an estimation of sustainable abstraction within the SDB calculations. Instead, we use the hydrological yield, water treatment capacity and bulk transfer limitations in our calculation of DO. We also use the sustainable abstraction assessment to assess the sensitivity of the Preferred Approaches (solutions) we develop as part of the NWRP. Therefore, our Framework Plan assumes that existing abstractions can continue on a transitional basis, subject to the registration and/or licensing requirements as outlined in the General Scheme of the Abstractions) Bill approved by the Government in September 2020. For these abstractions, further studies will be undertaken in conjunction with the EPA and appropriate stakeholders. Following investigation, if an abstraction is confirmed to be affecting a waterbody status the Supply Demand Balance will be updated and solutions will be delivered through future cycles of the RBMP and/or RWRPs. In parallel, IW will also consider other hydro morphological impacts, such as barriers to fish migration, as part of this process. As the objective of our NWRP is to achieve safe, secure, reliable and sustainable supplies, any new abstractions proposed to be developed by Irish Water as part of our RWRPs will be based on conservative assessments of sustainable abstraction. This will ensure that our water supplies continually improve in terms of environmental sustainability. More information on Regulatory and Licensing Constraints can be found in Appendix G. Irish Water has been an active participant in the characterisation process for the 3rd cycle River Basin Management Plan 2022-2027 and has liaised closely with the EPA during the development of this Framework Plan. Therefore, although the proposed Abstractions Bill is still under development and there may be some uncertainty in our calculations of sustainable abstraction, the assessments used as part of the development of the Framework Plan have followed the same principles as those that will likely be used by the regulatory authorities (based on the legislation as currently envisaged). 3.8 Baseline and Forecast Supply When we apply the WAFU assessment methodology set out in this Chapter to our existing supplies, and forecast the change in these supplies, we can assess how our supplies might perform now and into the future. Figure 3.8 shows our calculation for the WAFU nationally for our weather event planning scenarios, between 2019 to 2044. A summary of this information is also provided in Table 3.3. 53 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 3.8 – National Summary of WAFU, 2019 to 2044 Table 3.3 - Change in WAFU, 2019 to 2044 Weather Planning Scenario WAFU (Ml/d) Change in WAFU from 2019 to 2044 2019 2044 Total (Ml/d) (%) NYAA 1,723 1,725 2  0 DYAA 1,631 1,622 -14  -0.5 DYCP 1,773 1,762 -12  -1  WCP 2,139 2,152 +13  +1   = Increase in WAFU  = Decrease in WAFU Presently, for a normal year (NYAA) the maximum WAFU is 1,723Ml/d. This will increase in the short term to 1,751Ml/d as a result of delivery of projects to increase WAFU during the current investment cycle. By 2044 however, the maximum WAFU is reduced back to 1,725Ml/d, due to the impacts of climate change. For a dry year (Dry Year Annual Average) the maximum WAFU is 1,631Ml/d, rising to 1,654 Ml/d in 2023. This reduces to 1,622Ml/d in 2044. The WAFU is less in a dry year than in a normal year as dry weather conditions reduce the amount of raw water (Hydrological Yield) that we can abstract from our sources. Although there is less raw water availability from water sources, during a DYCP we allow our WTPs to operate at peak output over 22 hours. This represents an increase in operational time (usually 20 hours) to meet demand with a reduction in time for routine maintenance. This means that for water supplies where hydrological yield is not a limiting factor, we allow a peak deployable output from these sites. The 54 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan WAFU is higher during the WCP. This type of event tends to be short in duration and in some cases, we may be able to increase the operating period of our WTPs to address demand increase. Raw water availability is not normally a constraint during the WCP, which usually occurs when river and lake levels are at their highest. During the planning period we are predicting a 2% reduction in WAFU due to climate change, which is expected to reduce the amount of water that we can abstract from our surface water sources. At present, our forecast WAFU does not include the potential effects of the anticipated abstraction legislation, which will likely further reduce the amount of water we are able to abstract from our sources. The effects of the anticipated abstraction legislation are too wide ranging and uncertain to be assessed at this stage, with a more detailed site-by-site assessment required when the legislation is enacted. However, as part of our Options Assessment Methodology (see Chapter 8) we include a Sensitivity Assessment to ensure we understand how the abstraction legislation could impact our preferred options and programmes for each WRZ. 3.9 Summary In this Chapter we have: • Outlined and described how we estimate the components of supply. • Set out the current WAFU and how we expect this to change over the next 25 years. • We have also applied the baseline and forecast WAFU assessment methodology to our existing supplies. The output of this assessment will be used in our Supply Demand Balance Calculations. 55 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 4. Identify the need – Demand for Water in Public Water Supplies Identify the Need - Demand for Water for Public Water Supply 4 56 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points In this Chapter we will: • Outline the components of demand; • Describe how we estimate current demand and forecast future demand for domestic and non-domestic purposes; • Explain how we estimate leakage and leakage forecasts; • Outline operational water use; • Explain the concept of headroom and how this is used to provide for uncertainty in our estimates; • Describe our approach to calculate peaks in demand under the Weather Event Planning Scenarios; and • Set out the overall demand forecast for the next 25 years. 4 Figure 4.1 – NWRP Framework Process – Demand Forecast 57 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 4.1 Introduction to Demand To plan for future water demand, Irish Water must understand the current demand for water, and then forecast how this might change over the next 25 years (Figure 4.1). The term ‘demand’ refers to the amount of water we need to input into our distribution networks at water treatment plants to ensure that we can meet our customer’s water requirements in the homes and businesses at the boundaries of our networks. Our water distribution networks are extensive, for example the distribution network for Clonakilty in County Cork contains approximately 450 kilometres of water mains (approximately the distance between Cork and Letterkenny). As our water supplies travel through large networks before they reach our customers, the network performance or leakage needs to be considered in our demand calculations. Figure 4.2 shows the baseline components of demand. The components are assessed separately as they each involve different patterns of use and are subject to different drivers for change over the next 25 years. The following demand components have been assessed: • Domestic water use – water used in homes. It is often calculated by multiplying the population served by the average Per Capita Consumption rate (PCC); • Non-domestic water use – water used in metered or unmetered non-domestic premises; • Operational use – water used by Irish Water in carrying out its operations and hydrant use; • Apparent Losses – water use from connections that are not recorded on our systems; and • Leakage from pipes and joints in the supply network, or from overflows at storage tanks. The total amount of water supplied into the distribution network (from our treatment works) is known as “distribution input”. Therefore, for each WRZ, the demand components combine to give distribution input, i.e. Figure 4.2 - Deriving forecasts of total demand 58 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Demand for water in any WRZ fluctuates daily, seasonally and during critical periods such as drought or freeze thaw conditions. The fluctuations occur for a variety of reasons, including: • Changing weather affects the way water is used. For example, watering of gardens can increase demand significantly during a dry spring or summer; • Movement of people during holiday times or at weekends can result in increases in water demand in some WRZs and decreases in others; • Non-domestic demand, for example in schools, offices and other places of work, may be lower during weekends or holiday times; • Some non-domestic customers, such as the agricultural sector, may increase their demand during hot or dry weather; and • Leakage from the distribution network and our customers supply pipes tends to increase during very cold weather. Ireland experienced very large increases in leakage following severe cold weather in the winters of 2009/10, 2010/11 and Storm Emma in 2018. We consider these factors as part of our Weather Event Planning Scenarios, as outlined in Chapter 2. To forecast demand over the next 25 years, we first need to develop an understanding of how water is currently used once it enters the distribution system. This section outlines our understanding of current water usage in 2019 (this is the base year from which we start our forecasts of demand) and sets out how this forecast will change over time. We describe the steps to derive the demand forecast: Step 1: Calculate base year demand (the water balance) Step 2: Calculate forecasts for each component of demand Step 3: Calculate headroom Step 4: Calculate the total demand forecast Step 5: Derive and apply factors to convert demand to Weather Event Scenarios. Water demand forecasts for the period 2019 to 2044 have been developed for each of the 539 WRZs that Irish Water supplies water to. 4.2 Step 1 – Calculate Base Year Demand 4.2.1 Overview of Base Year Water Balance Irish Water currently supplies about 1,730 million litres per day (Ml/d) of water to approximately 4.2 million people. This represents about 87% of the total population of Ireland (the remainder receive water from private supplies or Group Water Schemes). The public water supply serves approximately 1.6 million domestic and 0.2 million non-domestic properties. A summary of Irish Water’s current supply is provided in Table 4.1. 59 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 4.1 - Summary of Irish Water’s water supply Item Number in 2019 Total population served 4.2 million Number of domestic properties served 1.6 million Number of non-domestic properties served 0.2 million Total quantity of water supplied 1,732 Ml/d Number of WRZs 539 Table 4.2 highlights how our WRZs vary significantly in size. In most zones, the population served is less than 1000. The five largest WRZs account for 57% of the total population served by Irish water and account for 50% of the total volume of water put into distribution. Table 4.2 - Summary of Irish Water’s WRZs WRZ category Population served category Number of WRZs in category Population in 2019 (million) (% of total) Average Demand in 2019 (Ml/d) (% of total) Very large WRZs: • GDA • Cork City • Galway City • Limerick City • South Louth / East Meath over 100,000 5 1.72 (41%) 0.29 (7%) 0.15 (4%) 0.12 (3%) 0.11 (3%) 572 (33%) 132 (8%) 75 (4%) 44 (3%) 34 (2%) Large WRZs 25,000 to 100,000 14 0.62 (15%) 276 (16%) Medium WRZs 5000 to 25,000 72 0.79 (19%) 387 (22%) Small WRZs 1000 to 5000 133 0.33 (8%) 167 (10%) Very small WRZs 0 to 1000 315 0.08 (2%) 44 (3%) Total 539 4.2 million (100%) 1732 Ml/d (100%) *Due to rounding the percentage figures may not add to 100% Since Irish Water was established, we have been collating all data held by Local Authorities into our centralised systems in order to understand how water is used once it is put into supply. In late 2018, a Leakage Management System (LMS) which draws together a range of live data including numbers of customers, metered customer usage and water put into supply, was developed. The key features of the LMS allow us to assess leakage trends in a uniform way across our supplies, and to manage active leakage control activities. 60 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Although the LMS is in its early stages and will take a number of years to fully calibrate, we are continuously improving our knowledge of leakage across our distribution networks. Our estimation methodologies are based on best international practice, and the LMS provides us with a platform for analysis of data. We have used the first full year of output from LMS to develop the baseline demand and water balance for the Framework Plan. The components of national distribution input for 2019, national public water supply, are shown in Table 4.3. Table 4.3 - National Water Balance for 2019 Water balance component Volume in 2019 % of total in 2019 Domestic consumption 556 Ml/d 32% Non-domestic consumption 407 Ml/d 23% Operational use 17 Ml/d 1% Apparent Losses 12Ml/d 1% Leakage 741 Ml/d 43% Distribution input (i.e. total water supplied) 1,732 Ml/d 100% 4.2.2 Demand Components 4.2.2.1 Base year population The estimated population currently living in each WRZ has been based on the 2016 Census data. Forecasts for future populations have been based on draft growth projections from the National Planning Framework (NPF), and updated information from the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (RSES) and Local Authority Planning sections (where available). The 2016 population was assigned to District Metering Areas (DMAs) by mapping the Central Statistics Office (CSO) data to DMA boundaries. We have projected the 2016 population forward to 2019 using the growth projections in the NPF to establish our base year populations. Our approach to forecasting population growth is described in Section 4.3 4.2.2.2 Base year domestic demand We measure domestic demand as Per Household Consumption (PHC) or Per Capita Consumption (PCC) in litres per household per day or litres per person per day based on a combination of metered data and estimates for unmetered properties. PHC and PCC are made up of micro-components of use such as: toilet flushing, personal washing, clothes washing, dishwashing and outdoor use. The demand associated with these micro-components relates to either individual use or shared use. Individual use covers activities such as toilet-flushing and personal washing and is largely independent of the number of people living in a property. Shared use includes activities like washing clothes in a machine and is dependent on the number of people living in a property. Understanding this breakdown of usage in the base year helps forecast changes in demand. In 61 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Ireland we do not currently have detailed information about water-using behaviour and a breakdown by micro-component. Currently, the percentage of metered properties varies by WRZ but, on average 57% of domestic properties in Ireland are fitted with meters. For these properties we have good data on the demand for water. For each WRZ the average metered PHC for those properties has been taken within the WRZ. An allowance of 2% for Meter Under Registration (MUR) has then been applied. This reflects that meters do not record usage to 100% accuracy and that the accuracy deteriorates with age of meter. The allowance we apply is based on evidence from the UK WRc report ‘CP360 Commercial Meter Under-Registration’ taking into account age and type of meter. The evidence for small commercial meters has been applied to our domestic meters. For the unmetered domestic properties, we have assumed that we can extrapolate the metered data and then apply it to the unmetered properties. The average PHC is calculated for each county using data from metered domestic properties within that particular county. This county-wide PHC value was assigned to unmeasured properties in all WRZs in that county. This allows us to account for significant deviations from average use in small WRZs. The results summarised in Table 4.4, show that the average PHC across Ireland was 354 litres/household/day and the average PCC was 133 litres/person/day in 2019. In our supply demand balance calculations, we use PCC calculated for the specific water resource zone based on the data we have. So for example in the GDA we use 122 l/p/d, while in Cork City we use 143 l/p/d. The assumption that metered properties are representative of all domestic properties in Ireland may not be correct. In other jurisdictions, higher allowances for PCC are applied to un-metered properties as part of demand calculations and leakage estimation. In order to improve our understanding over time, we need to identify appropriate domestic characteristics that influence water use. We can then use this information to classify our households and examine the representativeness of the metered data. This exercise will require a number of pilot studies across our supplies over the coming years. In the interim, for this Framework Plan, we have assumed that the metered data is applicable to the entire domestic customer base. This may initially result in an underestimate of PHC and domestic demand, and an overestimation of leakage in our distribution networks. It should also be noted that in England, the National Infrastructure Commission6 is advocating a reduction in PCC from 141 l/p/d nationally to 118 l/p/d in the future. For comparison, PCC used within this Framework Plan for some of our larger WRZs such as GDA, and Limerick City are set at 122 l/p/d and 125 l/p/d. 6 Preparing for a Drier Future, National Infrastructure Commission, 2018. 62 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 4.4 - Comparison of PHC and PCC across Ireland WRZ PHC in 2019 (l/h/d) PCC in 2019 (l/p/d) GDA 354 122 Cork City 382 143 Galway City 383 147 Limerick City 330 125 South Louth & East Meath 369 122 Other 534 WRZs 348 143 Average for all 539 WRZs 354 133 Domestic meters are generally fitted in the footpath meaning any water losses from the customer connection supplying the house, or internal plumbing leaks is included in the metered data. In the UK, water utilities report leakage as “Total Leakage” to their regulators. Total Leakage is the combined water losses across the public distribution networks in addition to leakage in private customer supply pipes and private plumbing systems (based on estimated values for customer side leakage). At present, Irish Water reports leakage as Distribution Network Leakage to our economic regulator the CRU and does not include Customer Side Leakage (CSL) within this assessment. However, due to the potential underestimation of PCC in non-metered households, our Distribution Network Leakage may be overestimated, and in reality, closer to a Total Leakage assessment. Due to our current treatment of CSL, the PCC for Irish Water may not be directly comparable with the PCC as reported in the UK. As Customer supply pipes are not part of the public water distribution network, leaks from these pipes are the responsibility of the property owner. However, Irish Water proactively promotes water conservation and encourages customers to repair leaks. We also offer a free repair under our First Fix Free scheme, where such leaks are identified. The First Fix Free scheme was initially very successful, but uptake has reduced to relatively low levels since the domestic charges were abolished. The savings associated with the First Fix Free scheme to date are estimated to be 120Ml/d (gross leakage savings). However, it must be noted that gross leakage savings do not translate directly into reductions in overall demand for the following reasons: • Savings are continuously offset by Natural Rate of Rise (NRR) (the rate at which leakage would increase if it is not managed) and new leaks within properties or on other supply pipes • CSL Savings are at the ends of long distribution network, and water saved results in small increases in service to other customers who may have low water pressure in their supplies. We will continue to monitor take up rates with the First Fix Free scheme when the excessive use charge is implemented (see Chapter 7). For this iteration of the NWRP, the CSL element of domestic demand is considered to remain static, based on empirical data trends from the “First Fix” scheme to date, and based on the assumption that domestic charges will not be introduced. 63 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Across all WRZs the base year average PCC is 133 litres per person per day (l/p/d). The total domestic demand in Ireland for 2019 was calculated to be 556Ml/d. 4.2.2.3 Base year non-domestic demand Non-domestic demand includes manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, agriculture, utility companies, commercial businesses, retailers, hotels, leisure businesses, local authorities, communal establishments, schools and hospitals. They use water in a variety of ways, including industrial processes, site washing, catering and office facilities. Most non-domestic customers have meters fitted and pay for water based on the volumes they use. Non-domestic usage in Hospitals and Healthcare Facilities Base year water use in non-domestic properties in each WRZ has been estimated based on the available metered data. Where current metered data is not available, we have used estimated consumption data based on previous meter readings where these are available or an assumed average usage per property. We have applied an allowance of 5% for MUR. This reflects that meters do not record usage to 100% accuracy and that the accuracy deteriorates with age of meter. The allowance is based on evidence from the UK WRc report ‘CP360 Commercial Meter Under-Registration’ taking into account age and type of meter. We have a small number of non-domestic customers that are not metered. The consumption for these properties is calculated based on the same assumed average usage per property. 64 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan We calculated the non-domestic water use for 2019 to be 407Ml/d. 4.2.2.4 Base year operational use Operational use includes water used by Irish Water at our sites, for mains cleaning in operating the distribution network, at hydrants for firefighting, and by local authorities for road and gully cleaning. We do not have data which allows us to make a direct estimate of the quantity of operational use in each WRZ. We have therefore assumed that the operational use of water is 1% of distribution input, based on data from the other water utilities in other jurisdictions with similar characteristics. We estimate that the operational use of water is 1% of distribution input for 2019. 4.2.2.5 Apparent Losses Apparent Losses include water that is used in properties (both domestic and non-domestic) through permanent and temporary connections that are currently unknown to us. We do not have data which allows us to make a direct estimate of the quantity of apparent losses in each WRZ. Therefore, we have assumed that this amounts to 1% of distribution input in urban areas, based on data from UK water utilities with similar characteristics. We have reduced the allowance to 0.5% in rural areas reflecting the lower density of connections. However during our consultation period it was raised by a number of our Local Authority Water Services partners that this figure could be a gross underestimate of apparent losses. As we progress optimisation of or District Metered Area’s we will refine data in relation to this. We estimate that apparent losses amount to 1% of overall demand for 2019 in urban areas and 0.5% in rural areas. 4.2.2.6 Leakage Forecasting Leakage comprises losses from the distribution network through bursts and seeps. The volume is not measured directly but can be estimated as the amount of water that is put into supply but cannot be accounted for as water that is used by our domestic and non-domestic customers, apparent losses or in our operations. This is calculated as: Managing leakage is important in the context of the NWRP as leakage reduction can create greater headroom between Demand and the amount of Water Available for Use (Supply). As a result, leakage reduction is an integral part of managing the Supply Demand Balance now and into the future, and is one of our Three Pillar solution types, Lose Less, as outlined in Chapters 1 and 7. 65 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Example of leakage 4.2.2.7 Base year leakage The process of developing the LMS and migrating DMAs from the different Local Authority areas into this intelligence system started in late 2018. All Local Authorities were fully operable in LMS in October 2019, and work continues in order to achieve the complete data configuration. When the LMS has been calibrated, we will be able to fully adopt best practice methodologies in estimating leakage. For base year demand, based on best available data, leakage has been calculated as 741Ml/d nationally. Due to the potential variation around our estimates of domestic and non-domestic water use, it is likely that some customer consumption (which we are not aware of and are unable to quantify) may be included in our current estimates of leakage. As our data around customer consumption improves, we will be able to reassess our estimates of leakage and will do so. Another key area of future data improvement is on the assumption that unmetered household properties use water in proportion to metered household properties. Further pilot studies are planned in order to understand whether this is an appropriate assumption. As we improve our data and understanding of the differences between metered and unmetered usage, we will adjust our estimate for domestic demand and leakage. We will then update our SDB calculations via the monitoring and feedback loop described in Chapter 8 of this Framework Plan. In 2019, baseline leakage was estimated to be 741Ml/d. 66 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 4.3 Step 2 – Calculate Forecasts for Components of Demand 4.3.1 Overview of demand forecasts Over the next 25-years, it is forecasted that: • Water use by domestic customers will increase due to the significant population growth; • Non-domestic water use is expected to increase due to economic growth; and • Large reductions in leakage are planned. Further details of our approach are provided in the following sections. 4.3.2 Demand component forecasts 4.3.2.1 Population forecasts The NPF “Project Ireland 2040 – Our Plan” has enabled Irish Water to estimate the change in population over the next 25 years. It predicts that at least 50% of future population growth will be focused in the five cities of Dublin, Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford and their suburbs. The growth rates from the NPF and Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy (RSES) have been used to forecast populations in each WRZ. The NPF sets target population numbers and our growth rates are based on these targets. As some WRZs comprise a mix of different settlement types, and can serve both urban and rural areas, we have proportionally allocated different growth rates for these mixed WRZs. The NPF ends in 2040 and our forecasts extend to 2044. We have continued the growth rates from the end of the NPF and RSES to 2044 to cover the whole 25-year period of our Framework Plan. Table 4.5 - Population growth rate of settlements based on the draft NPF Settlement/type of settlement Percentage population growth 2019 to 2044 (%) Comment Dublin City and suburbs 26% Growth from 1,208,841 in 2019 to 1,523,230 in 2044 Cork City and suburbs 54% Growth from 211,933 in 2019 to 325,838 in 2044 Galway City and suburbs 53% Growth from 80,615 in 2019 to 123,662 in 2044 Limerick City and suburbs 61% Growth from 98,465 in 2019 to 158,886 in 2044 Waterford City and suburbs 56% Growth from 53,661 in 2019 to 83,764 in 2044 Towns with population over 10,000 in 2016 On average 29% 41 settlements across three regions Towns with population between 1,500 and 10,000 11 specific towns 31% growth assumed for Carrick-on-Shannon, Monaghan, Nenagh and Roscommon. 15% growth assumed for other towns Settlements with population <1,500 16% 15% growth assumed for all settlements with population <1,500 Further details of the population forecasts are provided in Table 4.5. These figures will be further developed when Local Authority Development Plans are adopted. 67 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan The NPF envisages 26% growth in Dublin City and suburbs between now and 2040 with various rates for the remainder of the country ranging from 16% to 61% based on settlement type and size. The Water Resource Zone that covers the Greater Dublin Area includes Dublin City and suburbs and parts of Meath, Kildare, Wicklow and county Dublin. Therefore, the anticipated growth in this WRZ is a weighted combination of Dublin City and suburbs, and applicable growth rates for the other areas. The domestic demand forecasting used by Irish Water for the Greater Dublin Area front loads the growth to 1.3% between 2020 and 2030, to reflect observed patterns, then reduces the rate to meet the same NPF end point. The growth rate is extrapolated from the end of the NPF to 2044. The growth rate across the rest of Ireland is linear over the 25-year period within our Framework Plan. Growth projections are set out under the NPF and the RSES. The Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended) requires that all City & County Development Plans and variations are consistent with the RSES and relevant national policy (NPF). The Office of the Planning Regulator (OPR) evaluates and assesses these Plans to ensure they comply with the relevant planning policy and are in accordance with the principles of proper planning and sustainable development. As the City and County Development Plans are finalised, Irish Water will incorporate and take account of the growth rates set out in these Plans into our demand projections. There is a defined mechanism for these to be provided through our Forward Planning team. 4.3.2.2 Domestic demand forecasts To calculate future domestic demand, it is important to consider how PCC will change over time. We can then multiply forecast PCC by the population forecast, to estimate future domestic demand. Some factors that may drive change are shown in Figure 4.3 Figure 4.3 - Factors that drive change in PCC It is expected that the occupancy rate of homes in Ireland will decrease in the future meaning the average household will be smaller. This will tend to increase PCC levels as the components of water use which are shared amongst the household, will be spread across fewer occupants. However, recent models of appliances such as washing machines and dishwashers use less water per cycle, which can off-set increases from lower occupancy rates. 68 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Due to current data limitations in Ireland, data from the UK was used in our Framework Plan to assess potential changes to PCC for the period of the Framework Plan. We have considered how the improvement in appliance efficiency combined with falling occupancy (based on the NPF) would impact PCC over the next 25-years. This work has indicated that in Ireland, PCC would be expected to increase by 1l/p/d by 2044, largely driven by reduced household occupancy rates. By comparison UK water companies are, in some cases, forecasting significant reductions in PCC due to active customer engagement to change water using behaviour. Domestic customers in the UK pay for water services-based household usage and have an incentive to reduce water use if they are metered. As the level of household metering in the UK resulted from a combination of customer choice (Opt-in) and supply demand need (with associated water efficiency initiatives), UK companies use higher demand estimates for unmetered connections (whereas in our Framework Plan we have assumed that metered and unmetered connections have the same PHC). On a conservative basis for the purposes of this Framework Plan, we have taken the view that we should not allow PCC to increase by 1l/p/d from current levels. Therefore, our domestic demand forecasts are based on no change in PCC over the 25-year period of the Plan. We have forecast there will be no change in PCC over the 25-year period of this plan. For each WRZ, the domestic demand has been estimated for annually, by multiplying the forecast WRZ populations by the estimated PCC values for each year. The domestic consumption forecast is summarised in Table 4.6 for all areas served by Irish Water, and in Table 4.7 for the 5 largest WRZs supplied by Irish Water. Table 4.6 - Summary of domestic consumption forecast for the total population served by Irish Water 2019 2024 2034 2044 Population served by Irish Water (millions) 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.3 Average PCC (l/head/day) 133 133 133 133 Domestic consumption (Ml/d) 556 586 645 700 Table 4.7 Summary of domestic consumption forecast by WRZ (Ml/d) 2019 2024 2034 2044 GDA 207 218 240 257 Cork City 41 44 52 60 Galway City 22 23 27 30 69 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Limerick City 15 17 20 23 South Louth & East Meath 13 14 15 16 Other 534 WRZs 258 270 292 313 Total (all 539 WRZs) 556 586 645 700 *Note: Values may not sum exactly due to rounding Based on forecast population growth it is estimated that domestic water demand will increase from 556Ml/d (in 2019) to 700Ml/d in 2044. We are not allowing for any increase in PCC over the period of the plan. 4.3.2.3 Non-domestic demand forecast Overview of non-domestic demand forecast There are significant differences in water use trends amongst non-domestic customers across our WRZs. This is because water use at non-domestic properties varies enormously from sector to sector, and from property to property. The consumption volumes are primarily related to economic factors, water-use intensity and how this is changing, rather than to numbers of business customers. Therefore, an allowance for non-domestic growth will be required for towns and cities identified as strong growth areas in Project 2040. For other areas, it is assumed that there will be no significant increase in non-domestic demand, as shown in Table 4.8. Table 4.8 - Summary of non-domestic consumption forecast 2019 2024 2034 2044 GDA 139 178 215 232 Cork City 33 34 35 36 Galway City 15 16 16 17 Limerick City 12 13 13 14 South Louth & East Meath 6 6 6 7 Other 528 WRZs 201 201 202 203 Total (all 539 WRZs) 407 448 487 508 Further details of our approach to different areas are provided below. We have estimated the non-domestic water use for 2019 to be 407Ml/d. Across the national public water supply, this is projected to increase to 508Ml/d by 2044. 70 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Greater Dublin Area Due to its size and complexity, the non-domestic demand forecast for the GDA was developed by independent economic analysts. This assessment considered: • Customer water usage data provided by Irish Water; • Census of Industrial Production and other CSO data on output on a sector-by-sector basis; • Position papers on development in the Greater Dublin Area; • Government strategies on key industries and activities (for example Data Centres); • Findings from econometric modelling of the likely future water intensity output; and • Long-term economic forecasts for the Irish Economy. Low, medium and high non-domestic demand scenarios were developed for the GDA, based on the potential performance of the Irish economy through to 2060 allowing for variable growth rates. The medium demand scenario, which assumes the economy performs in line with the baseline long-term forecasts, has been used to forecast non-domestic demand for GDA in this plan. We have also allowed for specific identified increases in contracted demand, for example, where customers have notified us of expected increases in water use. Regional Growth Cities The NPF identified Athlone, Cork City, Drogheda, Dundalk, Galway City, Letterkenny, Limerick City, Sligo and Waterford as strong growth areas. We have considered the following data to derive an appropriate demand forecast for these WRZs: • Intelligence from Local Authorities regarding any specific known expansions; • New Connection Applications; and • Growth rates from the NPF. For these regional cities the NPF identified an expected population growth of 50% by 2040. We have taken a view that a significant increase in population will also drive an increase in non-domestic demand. However non-domestic growth trends in these areas may be lower than the growth in domestic demand, as our non-domestic customers are incentivised to use less water through volumetric tariffs. It is therefore assumed that there will be a 10% growth in non-domestic demand for these regional centres over 25 years. Rest of Ireland A review has been undertaken of the non-domestic demand forecasts in the UK. On the basis of trends, we have concluded that there will be no increase in non-domestic demand in areas outside of the GDA and Regional Growth Cities as the growth in non-domestic demand is assumed to be offset by water efficiency. However, Irish Water continually assesses the potential for non-domestic activity through our interface with the Local Authority Planning Sections and the Connection Developer Services Function in Irish Water. Therefore, where data on significant non-domestic growth emerges, we will update the SDB. While it is noted that farming production is expected to increase significantly over the coming years (Food Wise 2025), the impact this will have on the volume of treated water required is uncertain. Therefore, we have not allowed for growth for agricultural demand in our forecasts. We will engage with 71 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan the agricultural sector to understand their water requirements over the coming years. However, existing agricultural demand is accounted for in our 2019 baseline demand. This will be monitored as per the process described in Chapter 8, monitoring and feedback into the NWRP. 72 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Box 4.1: 10-year Capacity Register The purpose of the National Water Resources Plan is to ensure that the Public Water Supply in Ireland evolves over time in a planned manner to meet best international standards, and to eradicate the current issues within our supplies. It will also be used to identify areas where investment must be prioritized, based on critical need. However, it is recognised that it will take a significant period of time and investment over many years to achieve these standards, and that the public water supply must be able to ensure both continuity of supply to existing customers and to meet Irish Water’s objective to support sustainable growth and economic development in Ireland during this journey. Therefore, the supply demand balance and barrier standards in the National Water Resources Plan – Framework Plan are not intended to be used as a deterrent to new connections to the network, or as an indicator of where growth and economic development can progress within areas of supply. In many cases we will be able to support growth whilst delivering our strategic plan, even in critical or high-risk areas by: • Addressing availability through improving our knowledge of our supplies and improved operation of existing supplies; • Reducing leakage within our existing supplies; • Progressing interim upgrades to existing supplies; • Progressing medium to long term investments. In addition to this Framework Plan, Irish Water has developed a 10-year capacity register based on an amended Supply Demand Balance to provide the LAs with an indication of settlements with potential capacity constraints. This allows Irish Water to both inform the next review of Regional Planning Strategies, the preparation of Local Authority Development Plans and also to respond to growth and development needs. It is envisaged that the majority of Growth and Development needs within the next ten years will be facilitated through leakage reduction which will initially be targeted at settlements towards the upper end of regional and county settlement hierarchies. However, this will be an interim measure as leakage reduction alone will be insufficient to address all of the supply demand balance issues and will not address existing Level of Service issues within the current supplies. There is a specific funding mechanism for small supplies within the current investment plan known as the Small Towns and Villages Growth Programme or additional programmes as required. Monitoring and Feedback The Irish Water Forward Planning team interfaces directly with the Regional Assemblies and the Local Authority Planning Departments during the preparation of the regional growth strategies and the County Development Plans. As these strategies and plans are completed, the information at settlement level will be updated in the Supply Demand Balance. The Supply Demand Balance will be formally updated as per the process set out in Chapter 8. 73 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 4.3.2.4 Operational use forecast We have kept our assumption that the operational use of water is 1% of distribution input and will remain flat throughout the forecast period based on standard practice. 4.3.2.5 Apparent Losses In the base year apparent losses are estimated as 1% of distribution input. We have kept this element of demand flat at this volume throughout the forecast period i.e. the volume in Ml/d of apparent losses remains constant but the percentage of distribution input varies across the period. 4.3.3 Leakage – Approach to Leakage Reduction Forecast In addition to the consideration of leakage as a solution to some supply demand balance issues across our water supplies, leakage reduction is also driven by the “value” of the water lost across our distribution networks. By value of water, we do not just mean the operating costs of the water produced for supply (including power, chemical and treatment costs) but also the social and environmental costs of producing water (abstraction from the natural environment), and the cost of managing the efficiency of our distribution networks (the costs involved in continuously addressing leakage, disruption to water supplies, the impacts of the construction works required to reduce leakage). When the total costs of producing water (including environmental and social) are greater than the cost of reducing leakage, there is a natural driver to further reduce leakage to achieve equilibrium. This is known as the Sustainable Economic Level of Leakage (SELL). In the UK, the industry regulators for water supply set leakage reduction targets for the individual water utilities based on SELL, for the first iterations of their water resources plans and capital investment cycles. As the utilities have progressed along their leakage reduction glide paths, and have achieved or are approaching SELL, the UK regulators are now setting the challenge for some to go beyond SELL. As this is Irelands first NWRP, the forecast for leakage reduction within the Supply Demand Balance or as a solution to address SDB deficits within this iteration of the Framework Plan, has been set as SELL for the public water supply in Ireland. As per the UK, as we progress towards SELL targets, Irish Water will continually review and push towards further leakage reductions. These targets will be continually reviewed through the five-year resources planning cycles. It should also be noted that utilising SELL methodologies also has the benefit in driving data improvement, which in turn optimises the ability to deliver leakage savings. Developing SELL calculations requires us to increase our understanding of zonal pressures, meter performance, customer use, background leakage and the night lines for our supplies. In other words by utilising SELL to transform our understanding of our water supplies, we can focus our investments and therefore reduce leakage at a faster rate with the benefit of the enhanced data from the network. The SELL forecasts have been calculated using the latest available data from the LMS for 2019, using best practice methodologies for calculating SELL within the UK. Whilst there remain a number of areas where the data used for our calculations will improve significantly over the coming few years, the SELL targets in this Framework Plan have made best use of all data improvements that Irish Water has achieved to date. As part of the Framework Plan, we have estimated SELL for: • Irish Water overall; • The GDA; and • The remainder of Irish Water as the residual of Irish Water minus the GDA 74 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan The calculation of SELL uses a model that collates data inputs. The detail around the estimation of SELL is included in the report contained in Technical Appendix H: SELL – 2019 update. For the purposes of calculating the SELL, the baseline position for 2019 is taken as the 2019 target. There are two options for assessing SELL, summarised as follows: • Short Run SELL which identifies the leakage reduction to be achieved over the coming years based on the value of water compared to the cost of water losses through leakage • Long run SELL which identifies the leakage reduction to be achieved over a longer planning horizon allowing for investment in further pressure management, asset renewal, district metering and telemetry, smart metering, smart networks and measures to control customer side losses where possible. In WRZs where the SDB is in deficit, the Long Run SELL can be used to evaluate further leakage reduction options alongside water conservation measures and supply side measures to make more water available. At present due to data availability, and the need to understand the delivery and response of our networks to Short Run SELL targets, it is not possible to calculate Long Run SELL. Therefore, within this iteration of the NWRP, we consider the Short Run SELL targets. However, as part of the Options Assessment Methodology within this Framework Plan, we test all Preferred Approaches (solutions to address identified need) to sensitivities in leakage reduction, including the possibility of exceeding targets for leakage reduction. The Framework Plan also includes a feedback and monitoring process, whereby data improvements are continually fed into our SDB assessments and fed into the Regional Water Resources Plans. Further reference to SELL within this document is in relation to the Short Run SELL unless otherwise stated. 4.3.3.1 Main data inputs to SELL In estimating the Short Run SELL there are a number of key data inputs: • The estimation of background leakage/policy minimum formulae for estimating background leakage are also considered in the SELL • The Marginal Cost of Water (MCW) is the cost of water saved if demand is reduced by 1 Ml/d • Analysis of steady state repair data is used to determine how much effort is required to maintain leakage levels • The variable cost element of Active Leakage Control (ALC) costs is required and used in the SELL • Externalities (external costs), of which the most significant is related to the cost of carbon, based on forecasts of the shadow price of carbon The derivation of these data inputs for SELL calculation are based on best available information and are detailed in Appendix H: SELL – 2019 update. 4.3.3.2 SELL Assessment The assessment of SELL as part of this Framework Plan is fully described in Appendix H, and includes: • The methodology used and basis for selecting the methodology; • An estimation of SELL for the GDA and the rest of Irish Water’s supplies; • A sensitivity analysis of SELL; • The factors influencing the transition to SELL; • The SELL glide paths, or annual leakage reductions over time to achieve the SELL target, for the GDA and rest of Ireland; and 75 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • Consideration of Data improvements Based on the analysis of SELL used in this Framework Plan, a summary of the calculated GDA and National SELL targets using different scenarios is summarised in Table 4.9. Table 4.9 - Summary of Potential SELL scenarios forecast for GDA and Nationally (Ml/d) GDA (Ml/d) National (Ml/d) Remainder (non-GDA) (Ml/d) Description of scenario 119 539 420 Estimate using best 2019 data available 127 576 449 Upper bound 113 509 396 Lower bound 114 534 420 Estimate using best 2019 data available plus additional economic pressure management in GDA 130 534 404 Estimate using Managing Leakage 2011 estimate for background leakage and a less optimistic view of ALC efficiency plus additional economic pressure reduction in GDA. For the purposes of this Framework Plan, the SELL targets we have used in the SELL scenario are based on the methodology identified in the UKWIR Report – Managing Leakage 20117, as highlighted in red in Table 4.9. The associated glide paths to achieve these leakage targets for the GDA are summarised in Table 4.10 and Figure 4.4. As can be seen, the target SELL target in the GDA is calculated as being 130 Ml/d by 2034. This SELL glide path has been built into the Supply Demand Balance assessment for the GDA within the Framework Plan. Figure 4.4 illustrates the Glide path to achieving SELL outside the GDA (extract from Appendix H 2019 SELL report). Table 4.10 - GDA leakage level included in demand forecast (Ml/d) 2019 2024 2033 2034 GDA leakage level 215 185 131 130 7 UKWIR Managing Leakage 2011 (ref. 10/WM08/42 www.ukwir.org) 76 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 4.4 – Leakage glide path to achieving SELL in the GDA (Ml/d) (extract from Appendix H - 2019 SELL report) The SELL for the rest of Ireland is estimated as 404Ml/d, as summarised in Table 4.11 and Figure 4.6, or a net leakage reduction of 120 Ml/d by 2034. Table 4.11 - Leakage level included in demand forecast (Ml/d) 2019 2024 2033 2034 Leakage level outside GDA 524 513 404 404 Irish Water leakage level 739 698 534 534 Figure 4.5 – Glide path to achieving SELL outside the GDA (Ml/d) (extract from Appendix H 2019 SELL report) 77 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan At present we have focussed the SELL for the rest of Ireland on priority WRZs based on • Supply demand deficit; • Existing abstractions with sustainability issues; and • Drought impacts. As the net leakage reduction targets are prioritised on an annual basis, for the WRZs outside of the GDA, SELL targets have not been automatically assigned to the SDB assessments within this Framework Plan. Instead they have been prioritized based on key deficits and are applied to the identified SDB deficits within the WRZs as part of the Preferred Approach. We will continue to focus operational efforts to off-set the natural rate of rise of leakage in all other areas. We have explored the sensitivity of our forecasts in Appendix H. 4.3.4 Climate Change Research shows that climate change has an impact on water use. We have applied factors for climate change to our demand forecasts. These factors are based on the UKWIR 2013 study ‘Impact of Climate Change on Demand’. We have used a single change factor, shown in Table 4.12 for peak and average conditions as the changes are small, and our local data series does not cover a long enough period to develop Ireland specific values for peak and average conditions. We anticipate using different values for peak and average events in the future, as data permits. Table 4.12 Climate change factors 2019 2024 2034 2044 Change factor for peak and average conditions 1.0017 1.0029 1.0052 1.0073 These change factors are applied to the demand peaking factors in the Dry Year Critical Period Weather Planning Scenario (see Chapter 2). 4.3.5 Water Conservation Initiatives The NWRP introduces three solution pillars (Lose Less, Use Less, Supply Smarter), to address identified SDB deficits. The middle pillar of ‘Use Less’ – relates to demand side interventions. The Use Less pillar focuses on activities to help understand water use habits, influence behaviour, to encourage change and promote water efficient devices and appliances for domestic and non-domestic customers. The ability to reduce demand based on technology, behaviour and metering is uncertain and sensitive to the situational context and the awareness of need. For example, in England and Wales there have been significant reductions in demand related to increased metering in the south east of the country, facilitated by the designation by the Environment Agency of the area as a water scarce region. In contrast, in the 78 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan northwest and northeast of England where water scarcity is not as prevalent, there is less metering and less impetus to reduce demand. Technology offers benefits, but the changeover rates to new technologies are uncertain. Monitoring regimes need to be designed and maintained to understand significant changes that have been made and their result on water use. It is therefore difficult to assess at this time the potential benefit of water conservation activity in Ireland. Also, due to the funding mechanisms for water services, findings from water efficiency measures developed in the UK cannot be directly applied to Ireland. Within this first iteration of the NWRP, we have considered water conservation within our Domestic and Non-Domestic forecasts in the following ways: Domestic Demand Forecasts: Even though occupancy rates are falling within households, which normally results in increased demand, we have held our per-capita consumption rates as static across our supplies. This means that increased per capita consumption growth will need to be addressed through water efficiency. For example, in the GDA even though falling occupancy rates will result in an upward pressure on PCC, we have kept the PCC values as 122 l/p/d over the 25-year duration of the forecast. Non-Domestic Demand Forecasts: One of Ireland’s great economic success over the past thirty years has been its ability to attract foreign direct investment and promote strong indigenous growth, thus supporting job creation. This has meant that some of our trends in relation to nondomestic use are not aligned with areas of the UK or some European jurisdictions where heavy industry and manufacturing activity has significantly declined over time. Within our Framework Plan we recognise that growth does not always result in an increase in non- domestic demand, and even though the population and economy are forecast to grow considerably over the coming years, we have limited non-domestic water demand to the regional Cities. We have also capped non-domestic growth within other settlements. In these areas we will try to facilitate growth in non-domestic water use via efficiency improvements and water conservation. Further studies will be required to improve our understanding of the extent to which water conservation can influence the SDB. 4.3.6 Excessive Use Charge Recent government policy has allowed for the Household Water Conservation Charge or Excess Use Charges to highlight high usage to our customers. The revised policy sets an allowance per household including a higher limit for large families. Once this is exceeded, they incur a charge. The policy came into effect in late 2019 and the earliest date for customers to receive a charge is January 2021. As there is limited data relating to the water saving benefits of this approach, at present it has not been factored into the demand forecasts. When this charge has been in place for a period of time, we will be able to assess the benefits and include any potential water savings within the SDB forecasts using the monitoring and feedback process described in Chapter 8. 4.3.7 Non-domestic Tariff Framework The Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) published a decision paper on the non-domestic tariff framework and developing harmonised charging arrangements. This paper considered; • Geographic basis of charging; • Customer classification into tariff bands; • How tariffs will be structured; and 79 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • Cost of providing water/wastewater to each customer class. Irish Water do not yet have the required base data to overlay the impact of this tariff model in order to assess the subsequent impact those tariffs may have on water use in the non-domestic sector. Upon completion of our data improvement/acquisition programme, it will be possible to undertake this next level of modelling to acquire greater understanding of the customer categories and differences by region and we will then update our demand forecasts, as described in Chapter 8. 4.4 Step 3: Calculate Headroom When developing forecasts and assessments, assumptions need to be made on the accuracy of existing data and how likely our future projections will be. Headroom is the safety margin which is applied to demand forecasts to allow for uncertainties in our calculations on both the demand side and the supply side. The allowance is calculated and added to demand to provide a buffer in the SDB. Typically, headroom includes uncertainty associated with: • The assessment of the hydrological yield at surface water sources associated with the limited gauged data available; and • Future population projections, which are demonstrated, for example, by the range of projections produced by the CSO. Using best practice, headroom is calculated for each WRZ individually by quantifying the supply-side and demand-side uncertainties based on available data. The UK Water Industry Research Ltd (UKWIR’s) Improved Methodology for Assessing Headroom (2002) is the method used by the UK water utilities to calculate headroom (see Figure 4.6). 80 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 4.6 - Overview of Headroom Calculation Methodology for the Plan (Adapted from Figure 1.3 in The UKWIR Improved Methodology for Assessing Headroom 2002) Whilst the necessary data was available to apply the UKWIR methodology to the GDA WRZ, at present there is insufficient data to apply this methodology across public water supplies nationally, therefore: As part of the water resources planning process, Irish Water will over time develop peaking, and headroom allowances, specific to each water resource zone. Whilst the necessary data was available to apply the UKWIR methodology to the GDA WRZ for this iteration of the NWRP, at present there is insufficient data to apply this methodology across public water supplies nationally. Therefore, as part of this plan we have applied the full methodology to the GDA. This has allowed us to test the methodology and understand the data requirements. In the remaining WRZs surrogate data has been applied on an interim basis. As our data improves over the coming years, we will replace surrogate data with site specific data on a WRZ by WRZ basis, as it becomes available. - Outside of the GDA, best available information from similar WRZ types in the UK has been used as surrogate data As our data and understanding of our water supply network improves, we will move towards delivering full headroom calculations for each individual WRZ. 81 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan A review of the UK has identified that water utilities’ average headroom percentages vary between 3% and 8%. However, in some of the smaller, rural areas, headroom can be over 15% where there is greater uncertainty due to limited data. Our WRZs generally experience a greater level of uncertainty in comparison to typical UK water utilities because we have fewer years of asset data available. We are continuously working on improving our understanding of our asset base to reduce our level of uncertainty and achieve a better understanding of our headroom requirements. Table 4.13 shows the headroom figures we used for the various WRZs. Headroom factors are applied to the Supply Demand Balance for each Weather Event Planning Scenarios described in section 2.3.2, in order to derive the Total Demand. Table 4.13 - NWRP headroom allowance More details on the uncertainties that headroom allows for and a description of how headroom is calculated can be found in Appendix I. 4.5 Step 4: Calculate Total Demand Forecast Total demand is the sum of the components of water use plus headroom for each Weather Event Planning Scenario. This represents the amount of water we need to have available for supply to meet the needs of our customers allowing for our operational use, apparent losses and leakage. 4.6 Step 5: Calculate Peaking Factors In Steps 1 to 4 we calculate total demand during normal conditions (the NYAA) including the impacts of climate change on demand. We also calculate total demand for the different Weather Event Planning Scenarios (described in section 2.3.2). Ideally, calculations would be based on historical data for water use during these scenarios to derive peaking factors that describe the scale of the increase in total demand for each scenario. These factors are then applied to normal year total demand. However, country-wide reliable historical data is not presently available for all WRZs. Where we have available data we have used that in our plan. Where we do not, we have used data from Northern Ireland Water, our closest neighbour with similar characteristics and checked this against best available data for our supplies. This data has been used to derive peaking factors depending on the size of the WRZ. For the DYAA and DYCP scenarios we multiply the peaking factor by the annual climate change factor and this is applied to total demand. The peaking factors we have calculated for 2019 are outlined in Table 4.14. WRZ Headroom Allowance Comment GDA 8% Based on UKWIR methodology as Figure 4.4 Large zones (10– 100Ml/d) 10% Large urban centres not significantly different to GDA Medium zones (1–10Ml/d) 15% Mostly WRZs with small number of sources or lots of small sources leading to significant uncertainty Small zones (<1Ml/d) 20% Mostly small, isolated rural WRZs, where uncertainty is a large percentage but a small quantity 82 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 4.14 - Peaking factors for WRZs during summer and winter planning scenarios Size of WRZ DYAA Summer planning scenario (DYCP) Winter planning scenario (WCP) Small WRZ (up to 1 Ml/d) 2% 20% 50% Medium WRZ (up to 10 Ml/d) 2% 20% 40% Large WRZ (up to 100 Ml/d) 2% 20% 30% GDA (> 100 Ml/d) 2% 13% 20% Tables 4.15, 4.16 and 4.17 show the impact of applying these factors to the total demand for each WRZ. Table 4.15 - DYAA Total Demand WRZ 2019 (Ml/d) 2024 (Ml/d) 2034 (Ml/d) 2044 (Ml/d) GDA WRZ 630 654 659 699 Cork City WRZ 148 151 161 172 Galway City WRZ 84 85 90 94 Limerick City WRZ 50 51 55 59 South Louth & East Meath WRZ 38 40 41 43 All other WRZs 1,010 1,017 1,046 1,074 Total (all 539 WRZs) 1,960 1,997 2,052 2,141 Table 4.16 - DYCP Total Demand WRZ 2019 (Ml/d) 2024 (Ml/d) 2034 (Ml/d) 2044 (Ml/d) GDA WRZ 697 723 729 774 Cork City WRZ 174 178 190 203 Galway City WRZ 99 100 106 111 Limerick City WRZ 59 60 65 70 South Louth & East Meath WRZ 45 47 49 51 All other WRZs 1,192 1,200 1,235 1,268 Total (all 539 WRZs) 2,266 2,308 2,373 2,476 83 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 4.17 - WCP Total Demand WRZ 2019 (Ml/d) 2024 (Ml/d) 2034 (Ml/d) 2044 (Ml/d) GDA WRZ 742 769 773 819 Cork City WRZ 188 192 205 218 Galway City WRZ 107 108 114 120 Limerick City WRZ 63 65 70 76 South Louth & East Meath WRZ 49 50 52 54 All other WRZs 1,359 1,367 1,402 1,437 Total (all 539 WRZs) 2,508 2,551 2,617 2,724 4.6.1 Tourist demand Some WRZs including those located by the coast will experience influx of tourists particularly during summer months. This can result in elevated water demands. In cases where the holiday population is high relative to the resident population these demand peaks may be very pronounced during hot, dry weather periods in the summer holidays. Reports published by Bord Fáilte and Fáilte Ireland have been examined. However, they only provide generalised information about the location of tourist sites. They identify that major cities and towns receive the largest numbers of tourist visitors. These areas are usually supplied from large WRZs where the extra demands are small relative to the baseline demand. At early development stages of our Framework Plan, variations in monthly distribution input for each WRZ were investigated to identify whether WRZs with the largest peaks in demand were tourist destinations. However, based on available data the findings were inconclusive. Therefore, whilst it is recognised that tourism may significantly affect peak demand in some WRZs, no reliable means of identifying this or quantifying the effects was found. It is likely that some of this demand is covered by the peaking factors we use for scenario planning in the Framework Plan. This is a factor of uncertainty in the demand forecasts and is currently covered by the headroom allowance rather than being allowed for separately. 4.7 Summary In this section we have explained how we calculate the total demand for water which includes the needs of our customers and our own operations, and losses due to leakage. It also includes a ‘headroom allowance’ to allow for potential variations in our calculations. More details on the potential variation that headroom allows for and a description of how headroom is calculated can be found in Appendix I. The Demand methodology described in this Chapter is part of this Framework Plan and the associated Supply Demand Balance Calculations for each water supply can be found in Appendix L. 84 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 5 Identify the need – Barrier Assessment 1 6 Identify the Need - Barrier Assessment 5 85 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points In this Chapter we will: • Outline Water Quality Risk and Need across our existing asset base; • Describe the Barrier Assessment Process; and • Summarise our Critical Maintenance Process. 5 Figure 5.1 - NWRP Process – Barrier Assessment Water Quality and Reliability 86 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 5.1 Introduction Irish Water has a statutory obligation to produce safe drinking water that complies with regulatory standards, and this is overseen by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Irish Water has put in place the necessary structures to support sampling, testing and reporting from source to tap and puts in place the necessary actions should a risk to the safety of a supply be identified from our monitoring programmes. We are now going further and looking to ensure that public water supplies are also secure and sustainable. This requires us to identify and appropriately manage risk to our water supplies. Risk is the possibility of an adverse event occurring (e.g. Cryptosporidium contamination of the source, failure of a dosing pump) that could impact on our ability to provide safe water. Risk cannot be eliminated, but by quantifying, categorising, and managing risk, we are taking a proactive approach to ensuring our supplies are safe, secure and sustainable. Our risk management approach is based on the World Health Organisation’s Drinking Water Safety Plan (DWSP) approach. The DWSP approach involves assessing a comprehensive range of hazardous events that could potentially occur in every single drinking water supply from source (catchment) to tap (consumer). These assessments are then used to inform the required operational, maintenance, or capital interventions that will manage / mitigate the likelihood of these hazardous events from occurring. These hazard assessments from the DWSPs are converted into “identified need” within the Framework Plan. In this Chapter, we provide an overview of Irish Water’s current Drinking Water Safety Plan approach to risk assessment in more detail and show how the live hazard assessments from the DWSP feed into this and future cycles of the NWRP (Figure 5.1). 5.2 Drinking Water Regulation The current European Union (Drinking Water) Regulations 2014 was transposed into Irish law by S.I. 122 of 2014 and amended by S.I. 464 of 2017 to give effect to the Drinking Water Directive (Council Directive 98/83/EC of 3 November 1998). The Regulations set the standards that drinking water supplies must meet to safeguard public health. These standards set out the water parameters to be tested, how often they are to be tested for, and the acceptable limits for each water quality parameter. The European Union (Drinking Water Regulations) 2014, transposed into Irish law by S.I. 122 of 2014 as amended set the standards that water supplied to the public must adhere to. 5.3 Upcoming Legislative Context On the 1st of February 2018, the Commission submitted its recast proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the quality of water intended for human consumption, more commonly referred to as the Drinking Water Directive (DWD). The overarching objective of the recast proposal is to ensure a high level of protection of the environment and of human health from the adverse effects of contaminated drinking water. The European Parliament adopted the Recast DWD on 16 December 2020, it entered into force on the 12th of January 2021 and member states have 2 years to transpose it The Recast DWD proposes a risk-based approach to the supply of safe and secure drinking water. The risk-based approach comprises three elements: 1. Catchment – catchment area up to abstraction point (or zone of contribution in the case of groundwater) 2. Supply system – from abstraction point to point of supply; and 3. Domestic system – from point of supply to tap. 87 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan The first risk assessment and risk management of elements are to be completed within six years of transposition of the recast DWD into the statute book. Thereafter, it is to be reviewed at regular intervals no longer than six years. For catchment and domestic supply, member states are required to ensure that risk assessment and risk management is performed. For the supply system, member states are to ensure that risk assessment and risk management is performed by the Water Authority. This approach is effectively illustrated in Figure 5.2. Under recast DWD, quality standards for water intended for human consumption have been updated, and minimum hygiene requirements for materials in contact with drinking water (e.g. pipes, taps) have been introduced. A watch-list mechanism will allow for the monitoring of substances or compounds of public or scientific concern to health, such as endocrine disruptors, pharmaceuticals and microplastics. Furthermore, the recast DWD requires that EU Members ensure the safety of a drinking water supply through the comprehensive risk assessment and risk management approach that encompasses all steps in water supply from catchment to consumer. Greater transparency of water quality information for customers is also proposed. Parameters in the Drinking Water Regulations are grouped into three categories, ‘Microbiological’, ‘Chemical’ and ‘Indicator’, and summarised as follows: 5.3.1 Microbiological This category refers to the two main types of bacteria that pose a risk to public health if present in drinking water – E.coli and Enterococci. These bacteria usually end up in raw water sources (i.e. rivers, lakes, springs, etc.) following contamination by human and/or animal faeces. Monitoring of our public water supplies for E.coli and Enterococci is essential to verify the water is safe to drink, and that the disinfection process is working correctly. 5.3.2 Chemical Water is an excellent solvent and most source waters contain mineral concentrations derived from the underlying catchment geology and runoff from land. Chemicals and metals are tested in drinking water to determine if they are present and, if so, are they within acceptable limits. Chemical parameters that are present in drinking water can be caused by a number of different issues. These include chemicals dissolving into water from pipes and chemicals carrying over from the treatment process. They can also be due to chemical reactions occurring between different materials in the water or even runoff from the environment. Figure 5.2 – Illustration of how IW’s DWSP approach will meet the proposed DWD Recast requirements 88 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Some chemicals, such as metals, occur naturally in the environment and some are essential for life and are available naturally in our food. Others, such as lead and mercury, can have negative effects on health. Copper is an example of a metal that is essential in our diet but is toxic at high concentrations. Furthermore, metals such as lead, copper, and nickel can dissolve into drinking water from the supply pipe connecting your property to the public mains and from pipes and fittings within the plumbing systems domestic or non-domestic properties. 5.3.3 Indicator This parameter group includes all other tests not including ‘Microbiological’ or ‘Chemical’ parameters, (e.g. total organic carbon, colour and turbidity). Testing for these ‘Indicator’ parameters is required to monitor if there is a potential problem with the source, treatment process, or distribution network of a water supply that requires investigation, or that may point to a more serious problem requiring remedial operational and/or maintenance action. 5.3.4 Cryptosporidium Cryptosporidium is a protozoan, i.e. a very small single celled organism. It is pathogenic, meaning it can cause infection, disease or illness in other living things, but it is also parasitic, meaning it lives off other living things. Whilst Cryptosporidium is not specifically named in the Drinking Water Regulations, public water supplies must be free from parasites. Irish Water therefore monitors our water supplies for the presence of Cryptosporidium, where the risk of finding it is highest. 5.4 Monitoring of Our Existing Supplies Irish Water monitors all public water supplies in accordance with the requirements of the European Drinking Water Regulations and the results of these tests are reported to the EPA (Irish Water’s environmental regulator). Irish Water publishes the results from the regulatory monitoring programme on its website at www.water.ie/waterquality. This website provides information on the Drinking Water regulatory standards and allows users of public water schemes to check the results for their water supply by using their home address and/or Eircode. If a drinking water sample shows a result above a specified water quality standard, Irish Water reports it immediately (where applicable) to the EPA. If there is a concern about a possible health risk, we also consult the Health Service Executive (HSE). If a water sample has a result above a regulatory limit, this does not automatically mean there is an immediate risk to health. Therefore, Irish Water undertakes a The European Union (Drinking Water Regulations) 2014, transposed into Irish law by S.I. 122 of 2014 set the standards that water supplied to the public must adhere to. 89 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan water quality risk assessment and discusses this risk assessment with the HSE as part of a consultative process. If the consultation concludes that the risk to public health is of such significance that the affected consumers must be notified immediately, Irish Water takes prompt action to do so. The EPA, as regulator, supervises the investigation Irish Water undertakes following notification of water quality failures, including the effectiveness and timeliness of corrective and preventative actions. The EPA has a hierarchy of further enforcement actions available to them, including undertaking an Audit, placing the supply on the Remedial Action List (RAL), or imposing a Direction. The EPA updates and publishes their Remedial Action List every three months and can be viewed at www.epa.ie/water/dw/ral. The EPA also publishes its annual review of the quality of drinking water in public water supplies for the previous year. Box 5.1 includes an excerpt from the EPA’s latest published Drinking Water Quality in Public Supplies 2019 Report Table 5.1, setting out the current status of our supplies with respect to compliance with Microbiological, Chemical and Indicator parameters in the Regulations. Box 5.1 Water Quality in 2019 Water quality across each of the three parameter categories has remained consistent since Irish Water became responsible for public water supplies in 2014. Table 5.1 - Overall percentage compliance of samples taken for public water supplies Parameter Categories 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Microbiological (%) 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 Chemical (%) 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.6 99.6 Indicator (%) 99.3 99.1 99.8 98.9 98.8 99.1 5.5 Risk Assessment of Our Existing Supplies – The Drinking Water Safety Plan Approach As can be seen in Box 5.1, in general our supplies show good compliance with the Regulations, and most compliance trends have improved over time. In line with the requirements of the Drinking Water Regulations, Irish Water take samples from the point of compliance, which is the customer tap. While compliance sampling is robust and is necessary to monitor regulatory compliance, it is retrospective in nature (i.e. a lagging indicator) and does not assess all of the wider risks in our water supplies. Irish Water requires a methodology that allows us to proactively assess risk in our water supplies from “source to tap” as a way to identify and prevent possible future non-compliance, rather than react to a non-compliance after it has occurred. The Drinking Water Safety Plan (DWSP) approach, developed by the World Health Organisation and endorsed by the EPA, is best practice in terms of a ‘source to tap’ risk assessment for water supplies as outlined in Figure 5.3. The DWSP approach aims to achieve the following: • To provide a comprehensive risk assessment and risk management approach that encompasses all steps in water supply provision from catchment to consumer; • A risk management strategy that influences a water utilities whole way of working towards the continuing supply of safe and secure water; and http://www.epa.ie/water/dw/ral 90 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • A source to tap risk assessment and risk management system to inform the effective controls or barriers required to consistently supply safe and sustainable drinking water. The DWSP model critically and objectively determines the component risk associated with the source(s), treatment processes, process controls, alarm and plant shutdown settings, and finally the robustness of these processes. It also allows for consideration of occurrences that fall outside of normal operating conditions e.g. weekend events, weather issues, failed monitors etc. Risk scores from the DWSP assessment will be used to identify need, to develop operational or maintenance solutions, and to prioritise remedial works for supplies that pose potential risk to public health. This process will drive improvements in the provision of consistently safe and secure drinking water nationally. The DWSP approach involves assessing hazards that can occur in a drinking water supply from source to tap, assessing the Barriers that are in place to mitigate against these risks and guiding the management plans, operational monitoring and surveillance required for each supply (summarised in Figure 5.3). Figure 5.3 - An overview of the DWSP approach, as provided by the EPA Hazards are biological, chemical, physical or radiological sources that have the potential to cause contamination of a drinking water source; and Hazardous Events are considered incidents or situations that can lead to the presence of a hazard (e.g. the failure of a slurry lagoon allowing cattle waste to flow into a river). Risk is interpreted as the likelihood of identified hazards causing harm in exposed populations in a specified time frame; and Risk Assessment is the measure of magnitude of harm and / or the consequences of a hazard reaching a drinking water source. 91 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Box 5.2 Source Risk Assessment Irish Water have begun the process of source risk assessing all surface water and groundwater sources through the development of a suite of tools which utilise surface water catchment boundaries and Source Protection Zone boundaries published by the GSI (Department of Environment, Community and Local Government, GSI and EPA, 19998; EPA, 20119), where they exist, but ZOC boundaries in their absence, to characterise land use in the catchments, illustrate stakeholders for collaboration, and identify diffuse and points source pollution and contaminant derivatives to inform source water risk. Theoretical contaminant loadings, i.e. Cryptosporidium, E. coli, pesticides, chemicals and metals – anthropogenic and naturally occurring and nutrients are being estimated at the catchment scale using the source – pathway – receptor approach and this will inform risk management via the National Water Resources Plan, i.e. raw water monitoring programmes, areas for catchment interventions and treatment requirements. To realise Irish Water’s objective in providing a safe and wholesome water supply to our customers, Irish Water has identified 174 potential hazards (also referred to a hazardous events) that may pose a risk in our ability to produce safe and secure drinking water. Table 5.2 shows the number of potential hazards associated with the various stages (1-6) involved in a water supply. 8 https://www.gsi.ie/documents/Groundwater Protection Schemes report.pdf 9 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/advice/drinkingwater/Advice%20Note%20No7.pdf https://urldefense.com/v3/ https:/www.gsi.ie/documents/Groundwater Protection Schemes report.pdf ;!!B5cixuoO7ltTeg!ViXNMbUvL35sqja-JXG Uii6t5Z0w4t2 gSJhQ0KfQzoZAhbdOgbusqkYJNIVyeLCDU1A$ https://urldefense.com/v3/ https:/www.epa.ie/pubs/advice/drinkingwater/Advice*20Note*20No7.pdf ;JSU!!B5cixuoO7ltTeg!ViXNMbUvL35sqja-JXG Uii6t5Z0w4t2 gSJhQ0KfQzoZAhbdOgbusqkYJNIVxlgQM0hw$ 92 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Irish Water has developed a set of specifically customised methodologies for the assessment of risk for each hazard as opposed to a rigid singular process. Where available, data is used to determine risk via predictive modelling and, where appropriate, bespoke failure-based review is also used to ascertain risk. In some cases, Irish Water uses a combination of the two. Table 5.2 - Numbers and grouping of DWSP Hazardous Events across the 6 categories of water supply Core list of hazards G e n e ra l C a tc h m e n t S u rf a c e w a te r c a tc h m e n t G ro u n d w a te r c a tc h m e n t In ta k e S to ra g e L in e O th e r C F C F ilt ra ti o n D is in fe c ti o n R e s id u a ls D e s ig n M e m b ra n e f ilt ra ti o n N e tw o rk S e rv ic e r e s e rv o ir P re m is e s S y s te m T ra in in g Source 22 12 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Raw water - - - 9 6 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - Treatment - - - - - - 22 21 16 14 6 5 2 - - - - - Distribution - - - - - - - - - - - - - 22 9 - - - Consumer - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3 - - Management - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3 1 As part of the DWSP approach, Irish Water is developing scientifically robust datasets to assign risk. For the ‘source’ component of DWSPs, a greater emphasis will be placed on the source-pathway-receptor concept for contaminant delivery and utilisation of existing national scale catchment related datasets published by the EPA and Geological Survey Ireland. For the ‘treatment’ and ‘distribution’ component of DWSPs, Irish Water are utilising the well-established ‘Failure Mode Effect Analysis’ which provides a step-by-step approach for identifying all possible failure modes that can result in a hazardous event. Once identified, we assess risk against the existing controls (Barriers), which we have in place for source protection or within our water treatment plants and networks. This Barrier Assessment process highlights where there is a deficit in these controls or treatment process elements. The process is not static, but rather ‘living’ in that it will continuously be open to review and receive regular updates and upgrades as requirements evolve. 5.6 The Barrier Approach to Safe and Secure Drinking Water Irish Water’s multi barrier approach, in terms of water treatment, is summarised in Figure 5.4. The multi barrier approach takes a source to tap approach by seeking to reduce the level of contamination entering water sources, applying robust multiple treatment barriers at the water treatment plants based on source risk assessment, and having appropriate temporal and spatially distributed monitoring programmes at each stage of the source to tap process to validate performance (Box 5.2). Barrier components consist of any actions, processes, procedures, standards or assets (treatment plants, water mains, pumping stations etc.) put in place across the entire system, from catchment to tap, to achieve water of sufficient quality and quantity. The Barrier standards should be able to sufficiently address the potential hazards identified in the DWSP assessments. Currently, there are eight key Barriers, and associated control measures (set out in Figure 5.4). 93 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 5.4 - Irish Water’s Barriers for achieving Safe & Secure Drinking Water The eight barriers and eight sub-barriers are: Barrier 1: Inactivation of bacteria and viruses, as determined from a calculation of the chlorine contact time (generally referred to as ‘Ct’). Barrier 2: Maintenance of a microbiological barrier in the distribution network Barrier 3: Inactivation of protozoa (i.e. Cryptosporidium and Giardia) by UV radiation with reference to a determination of the Cryptosporidium risk score Barrier 4: Removal of protozoa (i.e. Cryptosporidium and Giardia) by coagulation, flocculation and clarification (CFC) and filtration, slow sand filtration or membrane filtration with reference to a determination of the Cryptosporidium risk score Barrier 5: Prevention of supply interruptions Barrier 6: Prevention of the formation of trihalomethanes (THMs) Barrier 7: Prevention of pollution of the environment Barrier 8: Minimising the level of other physical / chemical parameters such as: a. Lead b. Pesticides c. Nitrates d. Aluminium e. Iron f. Manganese g. Taste and odour h. Others 94 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Of these, the first five barriers (Barriers 1 – 5) are the most critical, as failure of one or more of these could present an immediate health risk or loss of water supply to our customers. The Barriers and their control measures are aligned with water quality requirements to achieve a safe and secure water supply and are further detailed in Appendix J. Where the existing barriers are not sufficient to address potential hazards, the component and severity of the associated failure mode is identified within a DWSP and this identified need will require an associated mitigation in the form of either an operational intervention or a capital investment in our asset base. The relationship between the DWSP, the Barrier Assessment and the National Water Resources Plan is summarised in Figure 5.5. Figure 5.5 - Relationship between the DWSP, the Barrier Assessment and the National Water Resources Plan The Recast DWD breaks the water supply scheme into 3 parts: catchment, supply systems and domestic systems. Requirements for risk assessment and risk management vary across the three component parts. The eight barriers considered within this plan relate to supply systems. Now that the recast DWR has been adopted, further/alternative barriers will be developed for catchment and domestic systems. Methodologies for risk assessment are currently being refined and enhanced with the availability of improved datasets and in line with the Recast DWD and the DWSP approach and our barrier assessments will also be continuously updated to ensure that the revised methodologies are captured in the reporting. As a result, there may be uncertainty and confliction in inter-annual reporting metrics. However this will be a reflection of the improved risk identification process. 5.7 Interim Barrier Assessment Review In the enduring model, as shown in in Figure 5.6, the hazard assessments completed as part of the DWSPs will be used as the base data for the Barrier Assessments, which will in turn inform water quality driven need within our NWRP. However, as Irish Water currently operates 539 individual water supplies, and each site specific DWSP requires 174 individual assessments, it will likely take many years to fully complete the DWSP assessments across our entire water supply asset base. 95 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan In order to understand potential water quality driven need, for the purposes of the Framework Plan, we have evaluated on an interim basis the capability of our existing Barriers to meet the stringent asset standards we wish to achieve. We are undertaking this by applying a risk hierarchy based on lagging and (some) leading analysis. This Interim Barrier Assessment has allowed us to identify need for the purposes of the Framework Plan which will in turn be used to inform the Preferred Approaches (capital interventions and associated level of investment) required within the Regional Water Resources Plans. Whilst this interim approach provides a data-based analysis of need within water resource zones, it does not fully evaluate the risk associated with the individual elements related to a supply. Therefore, while the interim Barrier Assessment is sufficient at a Plan level to understand potential solution types and capital investment need within the catchment and for our treatment assets, the more granular DWSP hazard assessments are required to fully understand and manage the component (failure modes) of risk. Within this Framework Plan, we represent the Interim Barrier Assessment for each Water Resource Zone as per the graphic shown Figure 5.6. The “speedometer” chart illustrates the scale of investment (or intervention) we need to plan for in order to meet our stringent asset capability standards. We have used a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 indicates that little intervention or investment is required and 5 indicates that significant intervention may be required to meet capability standards. By transforming our asset base to achieve these standards over the future capital investment cycles, we will ensure that we are “best in class” in terms of safe, secure, reliable, and sustainable water supplies. As the Drinking Water Safety Plans are completed for each of the individual supplies, the Interim Barrier Assessments will be updated to include any additional information available, as per the monitoring and feedback process described in Chapter 8. However, it should be noted that the “quality need” identified through the Barrier Assessment is not an indicator of compliance with the Drinking Water Regulations. It is an assessment of the need to invest in areas of our asset base (human and structural) through resource planning, to ensure that we can address potential risks or emerging risks to our supplies. Figure 5.6- Speedometer type Barrier Status Analysis 5.8 Managing Risk in Drinking Water Supplies Our individual water sources have different raw water characteristics. Some of our abstractions are situated in relatively secure upland catchments or are from well protected groundwater sources. Others abstract from lower down in catchments or from poorly protected groundwater sources which are more vulnerable to contamination from human or agricultural activities. Therefore, the Barrier, or indeed combination of Barriers is specific to each supply. 5.9 Managing Risk in Drinking Water Abstraction Catchments Irish Water has been working with a range of stakeholders in recent years to develop action plans for managing risks within catchments such as pesticides. As part of the development of the DWSP approach, Irish Water will continue to work in collaboration with relevant bodies in order to develop 96 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan drinking water catchment action plans, and to manage risks associated with other contaminants as highlighted by the source risk assessments (Box 5.2) The drinking water catchment action plans will include the identification of the main risks to raw water quality, the actions required to address those risks, and the relevant geographical areas where those actions should be focused. Those responsible for actions will be identified and target dates for implementation will be established through existing and new working groups or structures. In Chapter 7 we have summarised some of the catchment and risk management activities that are ongoing at present. 5.10 Future Asset Planning Across our Existing Supplies As summarised in Section 5.1, Irish Water’s regulated sampling results for 2019 (EPA report Drinking Water Quality in Public Supplies 2019, issued 30th June 2020 show a high degree of compliance at our customer’s taps. However, in many cases, the controls and Barriers that we currently have in place may be insufficient to address the potential hazardous events that could occur at these supplies. As a result, we are developing programmes to install the required equipment and controls at all of our water supply sites, on a prioritised basis. These programmes include the Disinfection Programme, the Source Protection Programme and the Pesticides Pilot Projects described previously. These initiatives (specifically for works at the abstraction site and borehole upgrades) are currently funded and being delivered as part of our regulated Capital Investment Plan 2020-2024. However, due to the condition of our existing asset base and the large number of sites to be addressed, it may take several investment cycles before we have the appropriate risk controls in place across all our supplies. Due to the range of treatment Barrier issues across our asset base, we must consider addressing these water quality issues as part of water resources planning, alongside supply demand balance issues. As regulatory non-compliance drives capital investment requirements in our existing asset base, we must ensure to limit investment in supplies / sites that have long term viability issues. However, we must also balance this with immediate public health risk and ensure any short-term interventions to reduce / manage such risk are implemented in the meantime so as to establish permanent long-term sustainable supplies. This includes the continuance of so called "in-flight" projects discussed further at Section 7 below. Our long-term approach will increasingly include catchment management for drinking water source protection in partnership with key stakeholders. Catchment management can take many years to yield a benefit but is a sustainable solution by preventing contaminants entering the watercourses in the first place rather than putting in end of pipe treatment solutions. This approach to managing the risk to our drinking water sources is in accordance with Article 7(3) of the Water Framework Directive, which specifically requires countries to protect drinking water sources: “Member States shall ensure the necessary protection for the bodies of water identified with the aim of avoiding deterioration in their quality in order to reduce the level of purification treatment required in the production of drinking water.” Irish Water’s approach will be to collaborate with all relevant stakeholders who seek to deliver a common goal of protecting drinking water sources, to understand risks in the catchment, and reduce these risks. In order to appropriately consider water quality issues as part of the Options Assessment Methodology within the Regional Water Resources Plans, in any supplies that have Interim Barrier Assessment scores 97 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan of 3 and above, the Deployable Output from these water treatment plants is reduced to zero. This will drive upgrade or alternative source solutions for these supplies within the Regional Water Resources Plans. 5.11 Reliability – Capital Maintenance and Critical Assets To ensure the ongoing security and reliability of our treatment and water distribution assets, we need to ensure that they are appropriately maintained. Capital Maintenance is defined as the replacement or refurbishment of existing capital assets to provide continuing service to the customer and to protect the environment in accordance with current regulatory obligations. Maintenance includes the following activities: • The refurbishment of an existing asset; • The replacement of an existing asset with a similar asset; • The replacement of an existing asset with an asset of different type or design, that is fit for purpose; and • The reconfiguration of the system to provide the required service by another means. Irish Water has processes in place to ensure the appropriate delivery of maintenance works including: • A Working Group to monitor the delivery of works; • A comprehensive approvals process for requests; • Alignment of funding requests with Irish Water Service Measures; • Capture of estimates of expected efficiencies resulting from the replacement or refurbishment of an asset; and • Monthly reporting summarising of works delivered. This Asset Management approach is best practice to maintain serviceability (the capacity to maintain desired level of service) through the normal life cycle of an asset. This approach manages risk, protects assets from accelerated deterioration and reduces whole life cost by extending asset life. Across our water supplies, we also have a subset of assets known as critical assets. In a water supply, critical assets are the single points of failure that have the potential to significantly impact on our ability to provide water to our customers. Critical assets include abstraction points, large water treatment plants, and our bulk transfer or trunk mains (including any pumping stations associated with these). As a failure of one of these assets would result in a large-scale interruption to supply, they need to be maintained at a higher condition and performance grade and should be subject to more stringent maintenance programmes than non-critical assets. However, as these assets can be in continuous use, maintenance programmes can be difficult to implement. At water treatment plants we can design for additional capacity in the form of an outage allowance, which allows us to carry out planned and emergency maintenance or upgrades. However, trunk mains need to be taken out of service to allow for maintenance and repairs. As these mains are often running continuously at or close to full capacity, it can be difficult to take them out of service for the length of time required for appropriate maintenance unless we have sufficient reserves of treated water in storage. In addition, trunk mains can be extremely expensive to repair and replace. As critical assets have the potential to significantly impact our ability to supply water to our customers, we consider the capital maintenance requirements of these asset classes within our resource planning process. This means we include this aspect in the Needs Assessment workshops with our Local Authority partners, drawing on operational experience and referring to operating performance data. 98 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Impacts on water supply due to critical asset failure are assessed as part of Barrier 5 – Interruptions to Supply. As part of this barrier, we examine our assets for ‘source to tap’ security, including treated water storage requirements to mitigate against supply interruptions. 5.12 Summary In this section we have outlined the Drinking Water Safety Plan and Barrier Assessment approaches that we will use to manage potential risks and emerging risks to our water supplies. We have also summarised how these processes interface with Irish Water’s resource planning and capital investment planning processes. For the purposes of this cycle of the National Water Resources Plan, we have used an Interim Barrier Assessment to identify water quality and reliability driven need for the purposes of the Framework Plan. As Part of Phase 2 of the NWRP, we will develop Preferred Approaches (solutions) to address this identified need as part of the Regional Water Resources Plans. The European Union (Drinking Water Regulations) set out the water parameters to be tested, how often and the acceptable limits to ensure public health 99 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 6. Summarise the Need - Supply Demand Balance and Barrier Risk Scores Context and Related Plan 1 Summarise the Need - Supply Demand Balance & Barrier Risk Scores 6 100 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points In this Chapter of the Framework Plan we: • Summarise the results of the Supply Demand Balance Assessment and the Barrier Performance Assessment Figure 6.1 – NWRP Plan Process- Supply Demand Balance 6 101 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 6.1 Introduction In Chapters 3 and 4 of this Framework Plan, we identified how we assess our baseline supplies and the demand for water in each of our Water Resources Zones. We also summarised how we forecast our supplies and future demand for water across the 25-year horizon of our National Water Resources Plan. In Chapter 5 we identified how we assess the risks to our water supplies from the hazards that may affect them and the existing barriers and controls that are in place to mitigate these risks. Chapters 4, 5 and 6 broadly describe our current water supplies in terms of: • The Water Quantity that we can supply; • The Water Quality that we can supply; and • The Reliability of our asset base to maintain supply. These three aspects of our supplies need to be managed and planned for collectively to ensure that interventions to resolve one area of risk do not adversely impact on another (Figure 6.1). We must also consider whether our water supplies are sustainable and, if not, how we can ensure that the short, medium and long term plans we put in place will be sustainable in the future. 6.2 Summary Results Water Quantity – Supply Demand Balance To identify need in terms of the current and future ability of our water supplies to meet demand and to support growth and economic development, we compare our supply calculations against our demand forecasts to derive the Supply Demand Balance (SDB). This is shown graphically in Figure 6.2. Figure 6.2 – The Supply Demand Balance The SDB calculation compares the WAFU (i.e. the amount of water we can supply) to the Total Demand for water. Where the WAFU is less than the Total Demand, this is known as a deficit (or need) meaning there would be a risk maintaining supplies to our customers. Both the WAFU and Total Demand change for different weather conditions. As we identified in Chapter 2, an uninterrupted water supply is essential for public health, so we must ensure that our water supplies can withstand variations in climatic conditions. Four iterations of the SDB calculations were completed for each WRZ, to cover Weather Event Planning Scenarios: • Normal Conditions (Normal Year Annual Average – NYAA); • Dry Years (Dry Year Annual Average – DYAA); 102 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • Drought Periods (Dry Year Critical Period – DYCP); and • Winter Freeze Thaw Conditions (Winter Critical Period – WCP). Further details of the Weather Planning Scenarios are provided in Chapter 2. Our SDB calculations have been adjusted to include the following assumptions: • All Irish Water plans and projects that are planned to be completed by 2021 are delivered; • Target leakage savings which have secured funding, have been met; • The baseline SDB for the GDA WRZ includes the SELL glide path (as described in Chapter 5 and Appendix H); and • The baseline SDB for the other WRZs does not include the applicable SELL. We calculated the SELL nationally, however, the glide path to achieve SELL cannot be included until we have further information on the delivery mechanisms. The leakage saving may also have to be concentrated into specific areas depending on the outcomes of abstraction legislation, to support growth and economic development, or used within the Preferred Approach for the WRZs. The SDB Calculations do not consider any projects or interventions that will be delivered after 2021, as one of the purposes of the NWRP is to assess and then identify the most appropriate interventions. SDB Calculations have been developed for our 539 WRZs. The calculations cover the period from 2019 to 2044 to correspond with our 25-year NWRP – comprising this Framework Plan and the four Regional Water Resources Plans currently being developed. The SDB calculations for each WRZ are included in Appendix L. For ease of review, these have been categorised by Region and County. A national summary of our SDB calculations is provided in the sections below. 6.2.1 National Summary 6.2.1.1 Baseline and Future Supply Figure 6.3 shows our calculation for the WAFU nationally for our Weather Event Planning Scenarios from 2019 to 2044. A summary of this information is also provided in Table 6.1. Figure 6.3 - National Summary of WAFU, 2019 to 2044 103 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 6.1 - Change in WAFU, 2019 to 2044 Weather Planning Scenario WAFU (Ml/d) Change in WAFU from 2019 to 2044 2019 2044 Total (Ml/d) (%) NYAA 1,723 1,725 2  0 DYAA 1,631 1,622 -14  -0.5 DYCP 1,773 1,762 -12  -1  WCP 2,139 2,152 +13  +1   = Increase in WAFU  = Decrease in WAFU Further detail on the calculation of baseline WAFU and forecast supply can be found in Chapter 3. Figure 6.4 illustrates the Limiting Factor for the WAFU produced at our water treatment plants Figure 6.4 - Limiting Factor for the WAFU produced at our water treatment plants Our current forecast for the WAFU does not include the anticipated abstraction legislation. The new regulatory regime, which is required to meet the requirements of the WFD (2000/60/EC), will inevitably result in modifications to the way that we currently abstract from our individual water sources. However, as our water supplies have evolved based on these existing water sources, it will take numerous investment cycles before we have an integrated supply system that is truly environmentally sustainable. The effects of the anticipated abstraction legislation are likely to be wide ranging, such that it is not possible to assess them fully at this stage, with a more detailed site by site assessment required, when the legislation is published in its final form. 104 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 6.5 shows the potential long-term impact on the WAFU under a WFD compliant new abstraction regime. As can be seen, our available water supplies could reduce from 1,723 MLD to 1,478MLD in a normal year as outlined in Appendix L. This will represent one of the key challenges for Irish Water over the coming years. It also has broader implications that need to be considered in relation to the growth and economic wellbeing of the country. Figure 6.5– Potential Impact of Abstraction Legislation on WAFU, 2019 to 2044 6.2.1.2 Baseline and Future Demand Figure 6.6 and Table 6.2 show the Total Demand (i.e. with headroom) for water from our supply networks. Presently, in a Normal Year, the Total Demand is 1,924Ml/d and in a Dry Average Year is 1,960Ml/d. Our requirements for water in a drought or severe winter period can increase the Total Demand by up to 30%. For the DYCP (drought), the current Total Demand is 2,266Ml/d. The Total Demand is higher still for the WCP at 2,508Ml/d, due to the effect of pipe bursts. 105 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 6.6 – National Summary of Total Demand, 2019 to 2044 Table 6.2 – National Summary of Total Demand Weather Planning Scenario Total Demand (Ml/d) Change 2019 2044 Total (Ml/d) (%) NYAA 1,924 2,091 168 9% DYAA 1,960 2,141 182 9% DYCP 2,266 2,476 211 9% WCP 2,508 2,724 215 9%  = Reduced Demand  = Increased Demand Figure 6.6 and Table 6.2 also show that although our population is forecast to grow by over 20% by 2044 along with significant economic growth, Total Demand is only forecast to increase by around 10% across the different Weather Planning Scenarios. This comparatively small increase in Total Demand is attributed to: • The ambitious leakage reduction targets we have set ourselves as a country; and • The fact that significant high-water demand growth is confined within a small number of WRZs, which mitigates the effect of such increases, when using national averages. Supply Demand Balance We combine our baseline and forecast calculations for supply and demand over the next 25 years, to understand the deficits (need) in the SDB that we will need to address. For the purposes of this summary, we have presented this information as: 106 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • The national net surplus or deficit across our Weather Planning Scenarios; and • The number of WRZs that would be in deficit i.e. where there would be a risk of disruption to our customers. Net Surplus & Deficit Figure 6.7 and Table 6.3 show the national summary of the net surplus or deficit across our Weather Planning Scenarios for 2019 and 2044. Figure 6.7 – National Summary of the SDB for 2019 to 2044 Table 6.3 – National SDB Summary Weather Planning Scenario SDB (Ml/d) Change 2019 2044 Total (Ml/d) (%) NYAA -183 -349 166  91%  DYAA -318 -509 191  60%  DYCP -482 -704 222  46%  WCP -310 -546 263  76%   = Increased Deficit10 At present, Total Demand exceeds the Water Available for all Weather Event Planning Scenarios. The largest deficit in the SDB is for the DYCP, with a net deficit nationally of 550Ml/d. This is because raw water sources are impacted during extreme warm periods such as drought which typically coincides with increases in demand. The net deficit nationally for the WCP is 412Ml/d. There are normally no restrictions to the amount of water we can abstract during the WCP. This deficit is predominantly driven by the ability of our water 10 The national deficit is not equal to the total WAFU – Demand as this would assume all WRZ’s are interconnected. The national deficit is the sum of all the individual deficits per WRZ. 107 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan treatment plants and distribution networks to cater for the increased demand during this Weather Event Planning Scenario. By 2044, our SDB deficit will increase across all Weather Planning Scenarios. This is primarily due to a growth in demand, combined with a forecast reduction in water availability due to climate change. The SDB does not include the impacts of the pending abstraction regulations and reform. When implemented, these new Regulations will have the potential to significantly increase the deficits by reducing the amount of water, which we can abstract from our sources. WRZ Impacts Figures 6.8 to 6.11 show the number of Water Resources Zones which are currently in surplus or deficit across our four Weather Event Planning Scenarios. These figures show: • During the NYAA Planning Scenario, 311 (58%) of our WRZs, supplying 3,518,000 customers, are in deficit whilst 228 (42%) are in surplus;· • During the DYAA Planning Scenario, 323 (60%) of our WRZs, supplying 3,595,000 customers, are in deficit whilst 216 (40%) are in surplus;· • During the DYCP Planning Scenario, 355 (66%) of our WRZs, supplying 3,660,000 customers, are in deficit whilst 184 (34%) are in surplus; and· • During the WCP Planning Scenario, 362 (67%) of our WRZs, supplying 3,584,000 customers, are in deficit whilst 117 (33%) are in surplus. 108 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 6.8 – Numbers of WRZs in Surplus or Deficit in 2019 for the NYAA Planning Scenario Figure 6.9 – Numbers of WRZs in Surplus or Deficit in 2019 for the DYAA Planning Scenario 109 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 6.10 – Numbers of WRZs in Surplus or Deficit in 2019 for the DYCP Planning Scenario Figure 6.11 – Numbers of WRZs in Surplus or Deficit in 2019 for the WCP Planning Scenario 110 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 6.12 and Table 6.4 highlight that between 2019 and 2044 there will be an increase in the number of WRZs in deficit. The largest change occurs for the DYCP and DYAA Planning Scenarios with 27 and 30 more WRZs respectively in deficit. Figure 6.12 – Number of Water Resources Zones in Deficit 2019 – 2044 Table 6.4 – Number of Water Resource Zones in Deficit in 2019 and 2044 Planning Scenario Number of WRZs in Deficit Change from 2019 to 2044 2019 2044 Count (%) NYAA 310 336 26 8% DYAA 322 349 27 8% DYCP 354 384 30 4% WCP 361 384 23 6% Based on this analysis, it is clear that our baseline position is challenging, and that many of our supplies currently experience significant SDB deficits particularly during dry periods. However, Ireland has good natural water resources and when these issues are addressed through capital investment, the SDB will stabilise over time. We do not anticipate a significant increase in the overall SDB deficit nationally over the timeframe of the Plan, due to planned investment and leakage reduction. However, the SDB may increase significantly within certain Water Resource Zones, and abstraction legislation may impact on others. The current position reflects the condition and performance of our existing asset base particularly in relation to WAFU constraints. 111 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 6.2.2 How we are presenting the SDB information The SDB calculation for each WRZ is provided in Appendix L. Figure 6.13 gives further details of the information provided for each WRZ. Figure 6.13 – WRZ SDB Information 6.2.2.1 SDB Summary The key findings from our SDB calculations are as follows: • The WAFU from our existing supplies is not sufficient to balance the current demand for water, across all weather event planning scenarios whilst ensuring the correct levels of service to our customers; • This situation will deteriorate over time, because of climate change, leading to an increased frequency of prolonged droughts lowering river and lake levels; • Changes to legislation and the regulatory process around abstractions has the potential to significantly impact water availability at our existing supplies; • Although population and economic growth are forecast the Supply Demand Balance deficit is not expected to increase significantly at a national level, although there may be some WRZs with significant demand increase; • 58% of our WRZs are in deficit at present and do not provide the correct reliability to our customers in normal conditions based on the standards for reliability and Level of Service that we have set in this Framework Plan. This increases to 67% of resource zones in winter conditions and 79% in drought conditions. The SDB assessments show considerable vulnerability across the public water supply both now and into the future, if no course of action is taken. This vulnerability has the potential to limit socio-economic development and cause real losses to customers at times. However, whilst the purpose of this Framework Plan is to set out the methodology that will be used to develop short, medium and long-term solutions to address the risks to our supplies (in terms of quantity, quality and reliability), it should be noted that we have a range of interventions in train. These include 112 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan critical maintenance investments, leakage reduction, new supply interventions, and operational interventions, which will help deliver more from our existing asset base. 6.3 Quality and Reliability 6.3.1 Quality and Reliability – Summary Results In Chapter 5, we described how Irish Water monitors water quality in line with the requirements of the Drinking Water Regulations, and how drinking water compliance across public water supplies has remained high. We also detailed how Irish Water is adopting the Drinking Water Safety Plan (DWSP) approach to managing risk, in order to ensure that our water supplies are also secure, sustainable and reliable. Under this approach we have commenced the process of assessing our supplies against an identified list of hazardous events, in accordance with the World Health Organisation’s DWSP approach. This hazard assessment process allows us to understand current and future risks across our supplies from source abstraction to the consumer tap, which is the point of compliance in the Drinking Water Regulations. We also described how Irish Water assesses the capability of our current water supply asset base to deal with existing and future potential risks. This is called the Barrier Assessment, and it allows Irish Water to: • Understand the scale of potential “Quality and Reliability” need and the associated long-term investments we will need to plan for in order to meet the asset capability standards that we have set for ourselves, and • Transform our asset base over time through the NWRP and the future capital investment cycles Although we have commenced the process for completion of the DWSPs, they will likely take a number of years to complete across all of our water supplies. Therefore, for the purposes of this Framework Plan, and the four Regional Water Resources Plans being developed, we have used an Interim Barrier Assessment, as described in Chapter 5. These Barrier Assessments will be continually updated as we complete the DWSP hazard assessments over the coming years. 6.3.2 Water Security – The Barrier Approach to Asset Management While we continue to make progress in the development of the DWSPs for all of our supplies, Irish Water has used an Interim Barrier Assessment to identify “Water Quality and Reliability” need for the purposes of the Framework Plan. The Barrier Assessment is not a measure of compliance with the Drinking Water Regulations, however it is an assessment of our existing asset capability to meet the standards we have set for ourselves as a business. Meeting these asset standards will ensure that our asset base transforms over time, and that all of our supplies evolve to become secure, reliable and sustainable. The function of the Interim Barrier Assessment within this iteration of the NWRP is to allow Irish Water to understand the scale of the transformation required across our entire water supply asset base in the short, medium and long term. It also allows us to plan for the transformation of the asset base through the four Regional Water Resources Plans, and the future capital investment cycles which will consider those four Plans on a holistic basis. In the following paragraphs, we provide a summary of Interim Barrier Assessment across our supplies, under the individual Barrier headings. The scale of 1 to 5 indicates the level of transformation and investment required across our existing asset base to achieve the stringent asset capability standards we have set for our supplies under this category. The Pie Charts below represents our 539 Water Resource zones and the portion of these that of these that fall in to the 1 to 5 scale categories. This simple representation does not indicate the size of the 113 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan supplies, which vary considerably across the country. The information for water resource zones will be included within the four Regional Water Resources Plans, as part of Phase 2 of the NWRP. As shown in Figures 6.14 to 6.20, the barrier assessments under all eight categories indicate that there is some investment required across our water resource zones to ensure that our assets are secure, reliable and sustainable, both now and in the future. The average asset capability and scale of transformation and investment required is contextualised using the “speedometer diagrams” under each category. 6.3.2.1 Barrier 1 - Ensuring Primary Disinfection We verify compliance with the Drinking Water Regulations by sampling and testing the stipulated parameters in accordance with the required sampling frequency. Our regulatory compliance for microbiological standards was 99.9% in 2019. Therefore, our water supplies are considered to be safe. Figure 6.14 summarises the performance of our water resource zones in relation to Barrier 1. Figure 6.14 – Barrier 1 Average Asset Capability: Scale of Transformation and Investment Required (High to Low) 6.3.2.2 Barrier 2 – Ensuring Secondary Disinfection Figure 6.15 summarises the asset capability of the distribution networks within our water resource zones to meet the asset standards Irish Water has set in relation to Barrier 2. Figure 6.15 – Barrier 2 Average Asset Capability: Scale of Transformation and Investment Required (High to Low) 6.3.2.3 Barrier 3 and 4 - Ensuring Physical removal and/or inactivation of Protozoa Figure 6.16 summarises the performance of our water resource zones in relation to Barrier 3 & 4 performance. 114 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 6.16 – Barrier 3&4 Average Asset Capability: Scale of Transformation and Investment Required (High to Low) 6.3.2.4 Barrier 5 - Ensuring security and continuity of supply Barrier 5 conformity includes our ongoing risk assessment and management of the following range of water supply and distribution issues: • The Supply Demand Balance (see Chapters 4, 5 and 6.3 above), • The management of treatment process alarms and their effect on downstream water storage supplying our distribution networks, • The management of risks associated with critical infrastructural assets, such as abstraction works, large water treatment plants, pumping stations and trunk mains used for bulk transfer of water, as discussed in Chapter 6.4; and • The management of distribution network resilience encompassing reduction of leakage and the adequacy of storage to manage short term operational interruptions to the treatment and pumping of drinking water Figure 6.17 – Barrier 5 Average Asset Capability: Scale of Transformation and Investment Required (High to Low) 6.3.2.5 Barrier 6 – Minimising THM formation potential Figure 6.18 summarises the asset capability of our water sources, water treatment plants and distribution networks to meet the standards Irish Water has set in relation to Barrier 6. Figure 6.18 – Barrier 6 Average Asset Capability: Scale of Transformation and Investment Required (High to Low) 115 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 6.3.2.6 Barrier 7 Minimising discharges to the receiving environment Figure 6.19 summarises the performance of our Water Resource Zones in relation to Barrier 7 performance. Figure 6.19 – Barrier 7 Average Asset Capability: Scale of Transformation and Investment Required (High to Low) 6.3.2.7 Barrier 8 - Minimising presence of Chemical and Physical Parameters Figure 6.20 summarises the performance of our Water Resource Zones in relation to Barrier 8 performance. Barrier 8 includes a number of physical and chemical parameters. As can be seen, the barrier assessment under this category indicates that there is some investment required across our asset base. Figure 6.20 – Barrier 8 Average Asset Capability: Scale of Transformation and Investment Required (High to Low) 5 116 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 6.4 Summary In this section, we have summarised at a national scale the potential asset capability issues across all our supplies when compared to the asset standards that we strive to achieve, in the short medium and long term. In this iteration of the National Water Resources Plan, the information from the Supply Demand Balance and the Interim Barrier Assessment, will form the basis of “Identified Need”, and will be brought through to the four Regional Water Resources Plans as part of Phase 2 of the NWRP. Development of Preferred Approaches (solutions) for each supply, to address identified need as part of the four Regional Water Resources Plans, will allow Irish Water to strategically plan for the transformation of our asset base on a holistic basis over future investment cycles. It will ensure that our supplies are safe, secure, reliable and sustainable. It will also allow us to understand the overall scale of investment required to transform our asset base. 117 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 7. Develop Solutions – Our Approach Context and Related Plan 1 8 Develop Solutions Our Approach Develop Solutions - Our Approach 7 118 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points In this Chapter we will: • Outline our ‘three-pillar’ approach to managing supply and demand; and • Discuss our existing Resource Planning Activities. 7 Figure 7.1 – NWRP Process – Our Existing Water Resource Management Activities 119 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 7.1 Introduction Irish Water faces significant challenges in terms of the quantity, quality, reliability and sustainability of the public supplies across the country. Primary risks identified with over 50% of our supplies include insufficient water available for supply, water quality/compliance, and insufficient Levels of Service to meet our customers’ requirements. We must ensure that our water supplies become more sustainable over time, therefore we need to ensure that solutions to our supply issues consider the broader environment within which we operate. This means: • Where feasible we must cater for increased growth requirements in the first instance by driving an aggressive leakage reduction programme combined with strong promotion of water conservation measures in homes and businesses, as we cannot continue to abstract more and more water from sensitive sources to meet this demand; and • We fully adhere to the WHO principle that the starting point for good clean drinking water is source protection, rather than relying on ever more complex and costly treatment. We will achieve this by developing and implementing DWSPs across all our supplies. In developing appropriate interventions in a sustainable manner, we have compiled the range of available solutions into three pillars; lose less, use less and supply smarter. Lose Less: reducing water lost through leakage and improving the efficiency of our distribution networks Use Less: reducing water use through efficiency measures Supply Smarter: improving the quality, resilience and security of our supply through infrastructure improvements, operational improvements and developing new sustainable sources of water Together these pillars will enable us to optimise our capital and operational interventions to achieve the best outcomes and react to emerging issues (Figure 7.1). 7.2 The Three Pillars In this Section we describe the “three pillars” in more detail. Lose Less Leakage is the loss of water from the distribution network. This includes fractures and bursts, smaller holes and pinholes in pipe walls, leakage at joints, leakage at service connections and leakage at valves and other fittings and overflows at storage reservoirs. Only a tiny proportion of leaks within our distribution networks come to the surface as visible leaks. Most water leakage is absorbed into the ground or escapes into sewers and drains, so cannot be seen at ground level. The Lose Less pillar includes the actions which will improve our understanding of leakage, ways to reduce it and the tools required to help us to find and fix leaks. 120 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Use Less There is potential for us all to use less water in our everyday lives, and for businesses to save money by using water more efficiently. Irish Water is committed to developing and testing new initiatives to inform policy and enable customers to become more efficient in their water use. The Use Less pillar focuses on activities to help us to understand water use habits, influence behaviour, encourage change and to promote the use of water efficient devices and appliances. Supply Smarter Our water supply network consists of 1,090 individual sources. The Supply Smarter pillar includes actions to proactively engage in the protection our natural water resources, improve the performance and resilience of existing supplies, improve interconnectivity within our supply networks, increase the amount of water available for use, improve compliance, address the environmental impacts of existing abstractions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. We also support this through asset maintenance, operations and by delivering process optimisation and training. The key option types for infrastructure improvements under the Supply Smarter pillar are listed in Figure 7.2. 7.3 Our Current Actions Irish Water is already implementing measures across our three pillars of Lose Less, Use Less and Supply Smarter to maintain and improve the LoS to our customers. This section outlines the measures we are already taking and how we have accounted for them in this Framework Plan. 7.3.1 Lose Less: Leakage Reduction Activity to reduce leakage from the public distribution network was historically undertaken by Local Authorities and is now managed by Irish Water. As our water mains network ages, leakage will increase if we do not continue to invest in fixing leaks. We focus on finding and fixing the leaks which account for most of the water lost from our supply network. Our supply network is built from a variety of pipe materials of different ages and quality control during construction. Good network and water-use information, expert knowledge, specialist equipment and rigorous management is therefore required to reduce and control leakage. Figure 7.2 - Option types 121 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Example of an aged pipe To reduce leakage, Irish Water has committed to a planned and proactive campaign of high intensity leak detection and repair, reinforced by pressure management and replacement of mains which are prone to frequent bursts. To be effective, the effort must be sustained with new leaks detected and addressed promptly through active leakage control. We recognise that our current leakage levels are unacceptably high, and we are working hard to reduce the amount of treated water lost within our distribution networks. We have developed and are implementing our National Leakage Reduction Programme which includes: • Establishing over 4,500 district meter areas to enable us to identify faults; • Establishing our Find and Fix activities to deliver active leakage control; • Undertaking large-scale targeted water mains replacements; • Valve and control replacement; • Implementing pressure management controls; and • Delivering the ‘First Fix Free’ initiative to address leaks on pipes, within the boundary where the customer has responsibility. Our National Leakage Reduction Programme targets a net saving of 50 million litres per day by the end of 2021, which we have included in our Supply-Demand Balance forecasts. In order to achieve this net saving, we must achieve a gross saving estimated at 166 million litres per day, when account is taken of the Natural Rate of Rise of Leakage. In line with best practice, our long-term objective will be to reduce leakage nationally to SELL. We have summarised our SELL in Chapter 5 of this Framework Plan with further details provided in Appendix H. Developing SELL analysis for our distribution networks facilitates auditable and measurable medium- term targets. In addition, as the SELL methodology requires the granular development of data and intelligence on our distribution networks, including zonal pressures, DMA optimisation, meter accuracy improvement, it provides the information to allow us to understand and deliver further leakage reduction. As we progress towards SELL, we will recalculate further target leakage savings for all of our WRZs. 122 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan We know that this target presents a major challenge, but we are committed to meeting it. Within this Framework Plan, our initial objective is to achieve SELL in the Greater Dublin Area where the current need is the greatest. An image from our recent national water conservation campaign 7.3.2 Use Less: Water Conservation & Stewardship Successfully encouraging water conservation requires continued commitment to a long-term behavioural change campaign that educates and informs the end user about their individual water consumption along with the challenges faced in providing a sustainable treated water supply. This requires investment and ongoing research. In many countries water conservation activities are also aligned to economic incentives or other means of encouraging a reduction in water use. Research commissioned by Irish Water has shown that the broad perception among the general public is that we have an abundant water supply and that the need for water conservation is confined only to periods of extreme dry weather, as we have seen in recent years. We also know that low understanding of personal individual consumption, combined with high levels of leakage within the water supply network, and the misconception that Irish Water is not addressing the significant and complex leakage challenge, are further barriers to behavioural change. Many stakeholders have a role in educating the public about the importance of water conservation and Irish Water has an ongoing active programme of promoting water conservation in schools, businesses and communities. Our current activities include supporting the Green Schools Programme, water conservation public information campaigns and our certified Water Stewardship Programme. 7.3.2.1 Green Schools Since 2014, Irish Water has supported An Taisce’s Green Schools Programme which provides a highly effective ongoing environmental education for primary and secondary schools. In 2018 the Green Schools programme, which is in its 6th year of the Water Theme, saved over 389 million litres of water, the equivalent of over 450 million cups of coffee, thanks to participation in this programme. 123 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 7.3.2.2 Water Conservation Public Information Campaigns Irish Water conducted a number of Public Information Campaigns on Water Conservation, between 2018 and 2020, summarised as follows: Drought 2018: During the drought of 2018 Irish Water undertook an extensive national and local integrated public awareness campaign to educate the public about their personal water use. This initiative combined media, advertising and online information campaigns, with stakeholder and customer engagement to focus on the daily estimated water consumption, with a view to encouraging simple steps to reduce it. Daily water demand, especially in the Greater Dublin area reduced significantly during the period of the campaign (July and August) and while it is difficult to directly attribute this reduction in demand solely to the campaign, the widespread media coverage and associated advertising across all channels, along with direct engagement with large water users was very likely to have positively impacted behaviour and encouraged water conservation. Research undertaken after the campaign confirmed that household water users thought more about their individual use based on the campaign. However, the research also highlighted that their perception was that the extent of the drought may have been exaggerated. Water Conservation and Leakage Reduction 2019: In 2019 the focus of Irish Water’s public information campaign was broadened to inform the public and stakeholders about the work we are doing to reduce leakage. As with the drought campaign in 2018, the approach to water conservation and leakage messaging was integrated across multiple channels including national and regional media engagement, advertising, social media, website and direct stakeholder engagement with business, communities, local authorities and elected representatives. The return was reasonably effective, given the low understanding of the challenge of reducing leakage prior to the campaign. Post campaign research showed that understanding of key messages and stakeholder understanding improved. The campaign results underlined the need for continued activity ongoing investment in awareness campaigns on key issues. Drought Spring 2020: In 2020, due to an historically dry spring, some of our more vulnerable supplies started to come under stress. Therefore, a public information campaign on water conservation needed to begin earlier than in previous years. During this same period the impact of changed water use due to Covid-19 was also significant, with an increase in domestic water consumption due to increased home hygiene and hand washing. As a result, Irish Water’s water conservation messaging had to take account of critical public health messaging related to hand washing in particular, while still encouraging households to reduce non-essential use at the time a National Water Conservation Order was being imposed. As in previous years an integrated campaign approach was adopted to maximise the impact. Direct dedicated stakeholder engagement was also undertaken with key stakeholders including An Fóram Uisce, the Irish Water National Stakeholder Forum and each Local Authority through the Local Government Management Agency. Local Authorities across the country supported and amplified the water conservation campaign by sharing key campaign messages and collateral on their own online channels broadening the reach and impact of the campaign messages. While media coverage and stakeholder feedback on water conservation messaging was positive, it is difficult to accurately quantify the direct impact of the 2020 water conservation campaign given the wider context of the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on personal behaviour, including water use. Water conservation public information campaigns continue to be an important part of Irish Water’s overall communications approach and they will require continued sustained research, investment and stakeholder engagement. Due to limitations in data, we have not quantified the savings from these activities within our demand forecasts. As we develop our understanding of how we can influence water 124 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan use behaviour in Ireland and how to accurately quantify the water saving benefits we will update our demand forecasts. We continuously review all relevant available data to develop our understanding of customer behaviours and household water usage. Further studies will be required to improve our understanding of the extent to which water conservation can influence the SDB. Irish Water will continue to actively promote water conservation in schools, businesses and communities through activities including: • National and Local Media Campaigns • Targeted Sectoral campaigns • Green Schools • Water Stewardship Scheme • First Fix Free Scheme • Development of an online water conservation application which will provide tips on how to conserve water in the home Recent government policy has also allowed for the introduction of the Household Water Conservation Charge or Excess Use Charges to highlight high usage to our customers. This may also encourage further uptake of our First Fix Free Scheme, where customer side leakage is the main cause of excessive use. More detail of our current activities can be found in section Chapter 4 and on our website: https://www.water.ie/conservation/. Box 7.1 provides specific details on our Water Stewardship scheme which aims to support Irish businesses in reducing their water use. Box 7.1 – Water Stewardship Programme In partnership with Lean & Green Skillnet and Central Solutions, we have launched our Water Stewardship programme. This programme is open to business customers seeking to reduce water consumption and operating costs while protecting the environment. Stewardship takes a holistic approach to safeguarding our water supplies. This is a step further than water conservation which typically focuses on water efficiency and reducing water consumption, as it also supports and educates our business customers on quality and environmental impact to become Custodians of Water. Participating businesses prepare a Water Charter capturing the business case for action, their site’s current state, water saving opportunities and an agreed action plan. Successful businesses receive Certification that is accredited by International Water Stewardship Standards (EWS/AWS), and supports meeting corporate sustainability commitments including for Ireland’s pioneering food and sustainability programme, Origin Green (sponsored by Bord Bia). In addition, it is fully supported by the EPA, SEAI, IDA, Enterprise Ireland, IBEC, Chambers Ireland, and BIM. The leading-edge initiative in water stewardship is the first of its kind globally and funded by Irish Water & Skillnet (Department of Education and Skills). We have set up a new connections management system to ensure sufficient control of new connections to our water supplies. This allows us to facilitate new developments whilst ensuring that there are no reductions to Levels of Service across our existing customer base. We work with developers and large https://www.water.ie/conservation/ 125 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan non-domestic water users who require significant volumes of water to understand their actual needs, including details such total annual and daily demand and timing of peak demands. This allows us to control and set efficiency stipulations within new connection agreements, including reduced peak water requirements. Methods for driving down demand from large water users such as data centres includes limiting peak flows to the development and ensuring the developer provides adequate storage to manage needs during periods of peak demand. 7.3.3 Supply Smarter: Capital Investment and Improved Operations We are currently implementing an investment programme in our water supply infrastructure which includes water treatment plant upgrades to improve the LoS we can provide to our customers. We have numerous water supply improvement projects and programmes in progress, to improve both the quality and quantity of drinking water. Findings of the yield and demand assessments (in Chapters 4, 5 and 6) are being fed into our current projects to ensure we are delivering the most appropriate solutions. We publish details of planned, live and recently completed projects on our website. For more information please visit www.water.ie Box 7.2 – Impact of the Framework Plan on In-Flight Projects Ireland’s first ever National Water Resources Plan has been under development since 2017. As our Framework Plan has evolved there has been a requirement to continue to design and deliver projects within our capital investment plans, particularly in relation to critical water quality issues with potential to impact on human health (e.g. for projects required to remove ‘boil water’ notices). This section sets how the Framework Plan will apply to projects identified in Irish Water's RC3 Capital Investment Plan 2020 to 2024, which we call "in-flight projects". At present Irish Water has commenced implementing its regulated Capital Investment Plan “RC3”, which runs from 2020 to 2024. As a general rule the Regional Water Resources Plans will apply the methodology in this Framework Plan to all in-flight projects, other than those that already have planning permission as at the date of adoption of the Framework Plan. To mitigate against any potential sustainability or capacity issues with new assets as they are designed and delivered, we have applied the Supply Demand Balance standards set out in the Framework Plan to water resource zones with “in-flights projects” in them. These projects were initiated before the Preferred Approach Methodology set out in this Framework Plan was developed and refined. Now that this Framework Plan has been adopted, we will apply the Supply Demand Balance and Preferred Approach Methodology to all water resource zones with these in-flight projects in them, unless there are exceptional circumstances for not doing so. For the next regulated investment cycle “RC 4”, the preferred approaches identified in the four Regional Water Resources Plans once consulted on, finalized and adopted will normally be used to form the basis of all water supply projects in the investment plan. Source Protection and Catchment Management Activities Catchment Management and source protection approaches, in partnership with key stakeholders, are an essential and increasingly important component in ensuring the security and sustainability of our water http://www.water.ie/ 126 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan supplies. This type of approach to managing risks to our drinking water sources is in accordance with Article 7(3) of the Water Framework Directive. Irish Water is actively involved in pilot source protection projects in Ireland to trial catchment scale interventions to reduce the risk of peptides causing exceedances in water supplies. The two key projects are described below: A. Source to Tap Project: is a cross-border partnership project that focuses on the River Erne and the River Derg catchments which cross the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Irish Water is a project partner on this project which is funded by INTERREG and match-funding has been provided by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs in Northern Ireland and the DHPLG in Ireland. The project began in 2017 and will continue until 2021. It aims to develop sustainable, catchment-scale solutions for the protection of rivers and lakes, which are the main sources of our shared drinking water. Source to Tap also delivers a learning and outreach programme targeted at informing and empowering the public about their role in protecting our clean and healthy freshwater environment. An Agricultural Land Incentive Scheme is being delivered focused on changing land management practices for the protection of our water. B) Pilot Drinking Water Source Protection Project: as committed to under the River Basin Management Plan (RBMP). Irish Water is coordinating a pilot drinking water source protection project to “trial innovative monitoring and management strategies aimed at reducing the risk of pesticide contamination of drinking waters”. Catchment management interventions to be undertaken as part of the project will involve a combination of behavioural-change initiatives and promotion of the sustainable use of pesticides. Scoping, consultation and planning of the project began in 2019 and is continuing As part of Irish Water’s Water Services Strategic Plan (WSSP) we are developing a pesticide strategy for our drinking water sources. The strategy will cover our collaboration with stakeholders in order to assess and manage the risk of pesticides in the catchment. It will serve as an interim strategy whilst the pilot projects are ongoing, and we develop our long-term approach for catchment management for drinking water source protection. A summary of activities to date is included in Box 7.3. Irish Water also engages with other key stakeholders such as the National Water Forum (An Fórum Uisce), the Local Authority Water Programme (LAWPRO), Geological Survey Ireland, Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage, Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, National Federation of Group Water Schemes, Inland Fisheries Ireland, the EPA Catchment Science Team and the National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS). 127 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Box 7.3 Managing the risk of pesticides in catchments is an area that key stakeholders, including Irish Water, have advanced through national and local groups over the past number of years, summarised as follows: Pesticides have widespread use nationally across multiple sectors, including agriculture, horticulture, forestry, transport, local authorities, recreation, and domestic users. Pesticides can runoff into water bodies and therefore make their way into raw water sources. Irish Water is a key stakeholder within the catchment area, but it has no legal role or powers to enforce, control and limit the use of pesticides within the catchment. Their use is regulated by the Department of Agriculture, Food, and the Marine (DAFM). Since 2015, Irish Water has been an active member of the National Pesticides and Drinking Water Action Group (NPDWAG). The NPDWAG is chaired by DAFM and was formed to provide a coordinated and collaborative approach to prevent the ongoing prevalence of pesticides in catchments used for the abstraction of drinking water. Members include Teagasc, the IFA, ICMSA, APHA and local authorities among others. When made aware of a pesticide exceedance, all group participants engage with their own network of staff and stakeholders to raise awareness on the issue in the area relevant to the supply and its catchment. Irish Water highlights priority catchments to members of the NPDWAG for escalation of collaborative efforts. In 2019 the Pesticide Action Procedure (PAP) was prepared by Irish Water. The PAP ensures a standardised response to all drinking water failures and outlines how Irish Water endeavors to ensure compliance with the pesticide parametric values in the Drinking Water Regulations. It does this by notifying the EPA, HSE, and DAFM of pesticide failures, undertaking monthly pesticide monitoring of the supply and engaging and working collaboratively with key stakeholders of the NPDWAG. When persistent exceedances occur at a supply a local sub-group of the NPDWAG called a Catchment Focus Group is established to identify synergies and coordinate efforts via multiple activities which support the return to compliance such as catchment risk characterisation and monitoring, awareness raising and advice and training. NPDWAG Catchment Focus Group 128 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 7.3.4 Cross Pillar Action: Data Acquisition and Improvement Projects The methods used to develop this Framework Plan have been adapted from best practice, particularly from the UK, where a regulated form of resource planning has been in place for over 25 years. In the UK, the datasets and business intelligence systems used to collate and interpret data have evolved over time to meet the requirements of resources planning. As we are in the initial stages of resources planning on a national scale in Ireland, we are working to develop and implement a best practice approach to data and information management. In the interim we have had to rely on best available data, surrogate data and trends from neighbouring jurisdictions in developing this Framework Plan. Whilst we have identified the data improvements required to support best practice in future and invested in systems to manage it, it will take time to build the databases from operational information. Information improvements will include additional data to reduce uncertainty in our SDB calculations. This will support our Options Assessment Methodology and inform future policies. Data improvement projects are already being progressed, such as the rollout of the National Telemetry Programme and the Leakage Management System. In some instances, it may be that adapting an existing method to suit Irish data might be preferable to trying to develop Irish datasets. The applicability of approaches used elsewhere will be considered during our programme of data acquisition and improvement and will be updated in accordance with the feedback and monitoring process set out in Chapter 8. 7.3.4.1 Supply side data improvements Surface Water Yield Assessments The Surface Water Yield estimates used in the Framework Plan are desktop calculations. For strategic and sensitive sites or where significant infrastructure investment is planned under the Supply Smarter pillar, actual field measurement will be required to confirm the estimated yields. Flow and water level data were collected at 140 abstractions during low flow conditions in summer 2018 and these have been extremely useful in defining yields. However more site-specific data will permit improved understanding of abstraction during all weather conditions over time. Surface Water Yield is a key component of the SDB. We will continue to work with the EPA to further develop a targeted flow gauging programme to increase the confidence in our yield estimates. Groundwater Yield Assessments Geological Survey Ireland are continuing to improve the knowledge and information on groundwater resources. These developments will feed into improving our yield assessments. GSI are working on regional groundwater resource assessments based on surface water catchments. These assessments will be important to Irish Water in understanding the sustainable yield of individual and regional groundwater resources and will also help understand the connection with surface water. Irish Water are committed to working collaboratively with GSI on projects, and to provide and share relevant data to contribute to and assist GSI projects. The existing groundwater sources will be subject to further study to establish detailed geoscientifically robust zones of contribution in line with GSI’s Groundwater Protection Schemes (Department of Environment, Community and Local Government, GSI and EPA, 1999) and the EPA Advice Note Number 7. Source Protection and Catchment Management (EPA, 2011). This work will provide in-depth hydrogeological information on the source that will establish reliable yields. This information will assist in abstraction licensing and the development of Drinking Water Safety Plans. 129 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Climate Change Impacts As part of our commitment to building resilience in our water supply system, we have recently completed the Climate Sensitive Catchments Project with the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Unit (ICARUS) in Maynooth University. This project has identified the catchments in Ireland which are most sensitive to climate change and has developed and applied an innovative assessment methodology considering water resources and drought propensity. The traditional methodology to identify catchments vulnerable to climate change considers a ‘top down’ approach, applying information about large-scale climate change trends to small areas. This can result in inaccurate forecasting for catchments because it does not take area-specific information into account. The Climate Sensitive Catchments Project has taken a ‘bottom up’ approach, building catchment specific data catalogues, identifying stressors and vulnerabilities in each catchment. This will improve the effectiveness of our resource planning activities and allow us to develop a more resilient water service. The project output identifies those catchments most sensitive to climate change including an assessment of their sensitivity to drought. It considers water quantity and temperature change impacts both on flow regimes and to water quality. The next step in order to use this data, is the development of an application process for the research outputs into our Hydrological Yield assessments. As this work is happening in parallel with this Framework Plan, we intend to use the findings in our next reiteration of the NWRP. We will seek to bring the findings from the Climate Sensitive Catchments Project into our SDB calculations as we update them over the coming years, as set out in Chapter 8 re Monitoring and Feedback Loops. Environmental Impacts The Second Cycle RBMP identified approximately 250 water bodies sensitive to increased abstractions. We will work with the relevant organisations to scope and conduct the required investigations to determine the degree of sensitivity of these water bodies to abstractions. This may lead to abstraction reductions at some sites, potentially increasing a Supply Demand deficit. We will use the outcomes from these assessments when we apply the Options Assessment Methodology and we will update the SDB calculation following the process set out in Chapter 8. 7.3.4.2 Demand side data improvements Planning for Future Developments Our demand forecasts include projections set out in the NPF 2040 and information from the subsequent Regional Assemblies. These demand growth forecasts, although high level, are based on government policy and are therefore appropriate for the 25-year Plan. As we roll out our Regional Water Resources Plans in phase 2, we will work with our Local Authority partners to refine short-term demand projections based on committed development and local area plans where available. We will also update the SDB calculation following the process set out in Chapter 8. Non-Domestic Demand Over the coming years we will analyse non-domestic consumption based on usage trends within different industry sectors and by geographic area to develop statistical models to forecast future non-domestic consumption. This will require the collection of additional data on non-domestic use, which will be further enabled by the meter replacement programme currently in progress. Water Efficiency We expect water efficiency will play a significant role in managing future demand (under our Use Less pillar) and we need to better understand the likely effectiveness of potential efficiency measures. 130 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Internationally there is a growing body of evidence to support and understand efficiency measures which we need to translate to an Irish context. We will undertake a series of pilot studies considering UK and international estimates of water efficiency savings and their applicability to Ireland which will be factored into the next iteration of the National Water Resources Plan. 7.3.4.3 Hazard assessments as part of the development of Drinking Water Safety Plans In order to improve our water supplies and to ensure that they can address potential hazards at present and in the future, we set standards for each of our supplies that we will strive to achieve over time through the regulated capital investment plans. The standards we need to achieve at each supply are the Barriers required to address the potential hazardous events as assessed during the development of the Drinking Water Safety Plans for each water supply. Over time DWSP assessments will further define Barrier integrity, however, it will take a number of years to complete the DWSPs for all supplies. At present DWSPs for 27 WSZs have been substantially completed with approximately 2,500 hazards reviewed. As further DWSPs are completed, the information in the barrier assessments will be updated in accordance with the feedback and monitoring process set out in Chapter 8. 7.4 Summary In this section we have outlined the activities we are already undertaking under our three-pillar approach to Lose Less, Use Less and Supply Smarter, to reduce the Supply Demand deficits across the public water supply. In the next Chapter we outline a new Options Assessment Methodology that we will use to identify solutions in the four Regional Water Resources Plans being developed, to reduce and manage deficits across our supplies over the next 25 years. 131 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8. Develop Solutions – Our New Options Methodology Develop Solutions Our New Options Methodology Develop Solutions - Our New Options Methodology 8 132 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points The purpose of resource planning is to identify need and then to develop solutions to address this need across our asset base over the coming years. In this Chapter we summarise the Options Appraisal Methodology we will use within our National Water Resources Plan. This involves: • Identifying all possible solutions for each Water Resource Zone (WRZ) by the application of the options assessment methodology in this Framework Plan; • Screening out all options that are not feasible; • Developing outline designs for feasible options; and • Through Multi Criteria and whole life cost analysis, developing feasible options and Preferred Approaches for each WRZ in the short, medium and long term. 8 Figure 8.1 – NWRP Process – New Options Appraisal Methodology 133 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.1 Introduction The primary purpose of a Water Resources Plan is to identify need and develop plan level solutions that will ensure appropriate water quality, quantity and reliability for each WRZ. This involves developing a Preferred Approach for each Water Resource Zone (WRZ) (Figure 8.1). The Preferred Approach is the optimal Plan level solution to address an identified need within a WRZ, when all potential options have been assessed in a uniform way relative to each other. A Preferred Approach can be a single solution or combination of solutions (for example, a new water source combined with leakage savings), and can address need in a single WRZ or across multiple WRZs (for example a solution that addresses a local need or a larger solution that addresses multiple supplies). Plan level preferred approaches are initially developed to a level of detail that allows us to complete outline design and costing. The preferred approaches which will be identified by our four Regional Water Resource Plans (RWRPs) will be considered collectively and prioritized on a National basis and, if funded through a regulated Capital Investment Plan, taken forward to detailed design and planning, thus maintaining alignment with the Framework Plan objectives. Figure 8.2 – Plan to project alignment As explained above, as this is the first National Water Resources Plan that Irish Water has prepared a phased approach has been adopted. In this Framework Plan (Phase 1), the issues and need have been explained and assessed, and an Options Assessment Methodology is described in this Chapter. 134 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Now that this Framework Plan has been adopted, this options assessment methodology will be applied to each WRZ in the RWRPs and possible solutions identified and consulted on (Phase 2 NWRP – RWRPs, Consultation two). The solutions must reduce risk to our water supplies in the short, medium and long term. Each solution or Preferred Approach must consider the longer-term objectives of Irish Water, as set out in our Water Services Strategic Plan, other national policy objectives and the need to transform our existing asset base. We must comply with the Irish Government’s Public Spending Code and ensure alignment with DHPLG Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Water and Water Quality. The process of project and programme evolution is described in Figure 8.2. 8.2 New Options Assessment Methodology – Criteria Since the establishment of Irish Water, there have been two regulated investment cycles completed, and a third is ongoing (Revenue Control 3). The first two cycles were focussed on closing out projects that were carried over from the DPHLG Water Services Investment Plan, with some degree of re-scoping, while also introducing for the first time a range of asset maintenance programmes in priority areas (Health & Safety, disinfection upgrade, mains replacement & leakage management). In terms of water supply, the key focus of this regulated investment cycle Revenue Control 3 (2020- 2024) is to address critical drinking water compliance and chronic leakage issues. The NWRP will inform future investment cycles by enabling risk-based prioritisation of capital investment, allowing us to address need across the entire water supply asset base. In order to align with the requirements of our regulators and Public Spending Code, the process must be transparent, robust and subject to established governance. This will ensure alignment is maintained between the objectives of the NWRP and the development and delivery of projects and programmes. Our methodology to identify approaches within the Framework Plan aligns with the seven standard steps set out in the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform guidance document “Public Spending Code: A Guide to Evaluating, Planning and Managing Current Expenditure”. The key stages of the Options Assessment Methodology process are illustrated in Figure 8.3 and summarised below. a) Identify the Need based on the SDB (Chapters 3, 4 & 5) and/or DWSP Barrier Assessment (Chapters 5 & 6) and scope the study Areas (Phase 2: Regional Water Resources Plans) b) Option Development: Unconstrained Options Coarse Screening and Fine Screening through Multi Criteria Assessment (Options Assessment and scoring against the key criteria to verify Option Feasibility and understand key risks and constraints) c) Feasible Option List: Option costing encompassing Direct and Indirect Costs including Environmental and Social Costing; d) Test a Range of Approaches: Analyse the main feasible options; e) Approach Appraisal: based on risk f) Preferred Approach – the combination of options that present the best value approach to resolve need at Plan level. 135 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 8.3 – Option Development Process Table 8.1 shows how at a Plan level they correspond to the seven standard steps in the Public Spending Code. 136 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 8.1 – Comparison between Public Expenditure and Reform Guidance and our Methodology Department of Public Expenditure and Reform Guidance Standard Steps Corresponding Step(s) in our Methodology Framework Plan Section 1. Define the Objective a) Identify the Need & Scoping the Study Area 4, 5, 6 & 7 2. Explore options taking account of constraints b) Option Development: Unconstrained Options & Coarse Screening 9.3.3 – 9.3.4 3.Quantify the costs of Viable options and specify sources of funding c) Feasible Option List: Plan Level Option Costing encompassing Direct & Indirect Costs (including environmental & social costs) 9.3.6 4. Analyse the main options d) Test Range of Approaches 9.3.7.1 5. Identify the risks associated with each viable option c) Multi Criteria Assessment 9.3.5 6. Decide on a preferred option e) Approach Appraisal 9.3.7.2 7. Make a recommendation to the Approving Authority f) Preferred Approach (Those that are prioritized are advanced through the regulated Capital Investment Plans) 9.3.7.3 This Chapter describes the Option Development Process (methodology) we will use to develop a preferred approach to address in each WRZ need. It sets how we will test a range of options (in isolation and combination) against a range of criteria which reflect the objectives of the NWRP and its associated Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). Our proposed options assessment methodology is based around the following five criteria: • Resilience; • Deliverability and Flexibility; • Progressibility; • Sustainability (Environmental and Social Impacts); and • Cost. 8.2.1 Resilience A resilient water resource is one with enough capacity to mitigate the impacts to water supply when operational issues occur. These issues include: • Unplanned outages; • Low flows or flooding exacerbated by climate change; and • Regulatory changes. A resilient system is also one which does not commit us to long term operational risks, high carbon and energy intensive projects. The key constituents of the resilience criterion are shown in Figure 8.4. 137 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 8.4 – Components of the Resilience Criterion 8.2.2 Deliverability and Flexibility It is important that the options we promote to address a need can be implemented or constructed safely within required timeframes and are flexible to allow for future adaptation as water availability or demand changes. It includes the following two main sub-criteria: • Deliverability – considers the practicality of building or implementing an option or options; and • Flexibility – considers how adaptable an option will be to future changes in demand and the environment. Further details of the Deliverability and Flexibility Criterion are provided in Figure 8.5. 138 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 8.5 – Components of the Deliverability and Flexibility Criterion 8.2.3 Progressibility Within resource planning, it is important that the options proposed to address need satisfy strategic, national and local planning objectives. This criterion is to help us understand the relative difference between options, and how progressible different options may be. The purpose of this criterion is not to eliminate options, but to give maximum consideration to the potential challenges that might be encountered, should they be progressed. This also allows us to factor into our plan level delivery timeframes, complex consent submissions. Figure 8.6 shows the main component of this criterion: Planning Considerations Figure 8.6 – Components of the Progressibility Criterion 139 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.2.4 Sustainability (Environmental and Social Impacts) The Sustainability (Environmental and Social impacts) scoring criteria are based on the objectives defined for the SEA. AA is also integrated into the environmental assessment process. Aligning the Options Assessment process with the SEA allows the environmental assessment to be integral to and influence the assessment and eventual selection of the Preferred Approaches. This ensures that options which have a likely unacceptable environmental and social impact, particularly in relation to European and National designated sites are discounted at coarse screening. The criteria under these objectives which the options are assessed against are: • Population, economy, tourism and recreation, and human health; • Water environment; • Biodiversity (including flora and fauna); • Material assets; • Landscape; • Climate change; • Cultural heritage; and • Geology and soils. 8.2.5 Cost When comparing the costs of different options at a Plan level, it is important that all costs i.e. the total investment costs and monetised environmental and social impact costs are considered. Figure 8.7 shows how options appraisal approach in the NWRP considers costing. Figure 8.7 – Components of the Costing Criterion During the assessment process, no option will be discounted on the basis of cost alone at the initial Option screening stages. This ensures that due consideration is given to all selection criteria. Therefore, an Option with the lowest Direct Cost will not necessarily be chosen. Indirect Option Costs (Environmental and Social Costs) also influence the selection of Options. Further detail on Environmental Costing is included in Appendix M. 140 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.3 A New Options Assessment Methodology As outlined in Figure 8.8, there are 8 key stages in the New Options Assessment Methodology. Figure 8.8 – Option Assessment Methodology 141 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.3.1 Stage 1: Identify the Need The process starts with the Needs Identification Process (both quantity and quality), as described in Chapters 3 to 6 of this Framework Plan. This provides context for the Options Assessment Methodology and informs the scale of the solutions required. 8.3.2 Stage 2: Scoping of the Study Area In order to manage the roll-out of the Options Assessment Methodology and the delivery of the RWRPs, we have split the public water supply into the four Regional Areas shown in Figure 8.9, on the basis of the criteria described above. These regional areas are further subdivided into Study Areas which are clusters of WRZs termed Study Areas. Grouping WRZs into Study Areas means that: • Options can be developed that address multiple problematic supplies, which allows for consideration of efficient regional solutions to resolve local needs in more than one supply • Broader strategic decisions are made when looking at multiple WRZs The Study Area boundaries are based on WFD catchments and WRZ location and type (urban and rural). Further details on grouping WRZs into study areas are provided below. 8.3.2.1 Urban Areas Urban WRZs are defined as those that comprise major settlements as defined by the National Planning Framework, Regional Assemblies and Local Authorities. The raw water sources used to supply these areas are identified and if neighbouring WRZs also abstract from the same water bodies, they are included in the Study Area. This allows us to assess cumulative impact on water bodies and ensures that all abstractions from the one source are coordinated. For example, if there are multiple abstractions from the same river supplying different WRZs, the combined effect of these abstractions might be missed if they were considered on a single WRZ basis. 8.3.2.2 Rural Areas In rural areas we strive to develop geographical groups of small WRZs to form Study Areas. This approach allows us to consider regional solutions for these water supplies. The geographical groups can be within an individual county or cross multiple county boundaries. 8.3.2.3 Identify Needs for the Study Area Data is gathered for each individual study area including, but not limited to: • The Water Quality that can be supplied; • The Water Quantity that can be supplied; • The Sustainability of our sources or infrastructure; and • The Reliability of our assets. A detailed programme of consultation and Workshops is then conducted with Local Authority operators and stakeholders, to ensure a full and comprehensive understanding of need across the given Study Figure 8.9 – Regional Areas 142 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Area. Further details on the data queries considered at these workshops at each study area are summarised in Table 8.2. Table 8.2 – Data gathering activities during consultation Water Quality What is the performance and condition of our existing WTPs? Are our WTPs at risk of not treating water to the required quality standards? Are there any distribution network challenges contributing to water quality issues? Water Quantity What is the quantity of water that our WTPs and networks currently provide? Can the output from our WTPs be increased without affecting water quality? Is the condition of our WTPs or network affecting the quantity of water we can supply? Sustainability Is a source sustainable for the long term or is there a risk our abstraction will be reduced by future legislation? Are our WTPs sustainable or are they too costly and/or risky to operate and maintain? Is the WTP sustainable in terms of energy use and carbon and climate change visibility? Reliability Are any critical assets at risk of failure which could impact supplies? Is asset performance reliable or are quality outputs variable? This allows us to include any essential maintenance or refurbishment work required within a WRZ to be considered at the Options Stage. If a water treatment plant in the study area is coming to the end of its operating life and will require a complete refurbishment within the next 10 years, the capital cost of this needs to be considered in the proposed Options. The methodology also assumes that we will continue to invest in Capital Maintenance in order to ensure that viable plants are maintained at full serviceability. These requirements are identified through the Asset Management Process underpinning the Capital Maintenance Investment. At this stage we also consider the reliability and environmental impact of our existing abstractions. This will allow us to identify sites where capacity required is not likely to be reliably available. This will also allow us to identify situations where we must reduce or remove our existing abstractions within the coming years. 8.3.3 Stage 3: Option Development: Unconstrained Options List The SDB and the Barrier Assessment inform the type and scale of options that we must consider. These Options will be taken from the generic water resource types that are shown in Figure 8.10 and Table 8.3. Sub-variants of each Option type are also considered. Whilst Options are considered individually, an approach to meet identified need may be provided from a combination of these Options. For example, to meet a deficit of 10 million litres per day, the Preferred Approach could be achieved by increasing an abstraction from an existing source by 6 million litres per day, reducing leakage by 3 million litres per day and reducing consumption through demand management measures by 1 million litres per day (aligned with our Three Pillar approach). An “Unconstrained Options” list is developed from our Generic Option types. The Unconstrained Options constitute all of the possible solutions, which either fully or partly resolve a water supply deficit, regardless of any cost, environmental or social constraints. In developing the Unconstrained List, we identify options that are applicable to meet the needs of the study area. This includes: • A review of any options identified by Irish Water that have not been committed to in the current Investment Plan; • A review of options previously considered by Local Authorities; Figure 8.10 – Option Types 143 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • A review of options identified in other strategy documents, approaches and projects; and • Ideas generated at Workshops with regional operational staff drawing on their knowledge and experience of the supply system and the geographical area. We do not generally include Options that we know will not be practicable to implement or suitable to address need. The Unconstrained Options list can include solutions at a WRZ, Study Area, Regional Area or even National level. The water abstraction standards used to assess the impact of new options are based on UKTAG guidance for achieving Good or High Status, depending on current waterbody status. The application of UKTAG represents the best available scientific information and guidance. Where a waterbody status is unassigned, the use of standards for Good Status will ensure the proposed abstraction options will not prevent the achievement of Good Status when a status is subsequently assigned. Where an option that impacts a waterbody with unassigned status is chosen as part of the preferred approach, additional data collection to inform the assignation of a status will be identified for the project level studies. That data will be used to seek to ensure that the EPA assigns a waterbody its status prior to consent for the specific project being sought. 144 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 8.3 – Option types NWRP category NWRP sub- category Summary Lose Less Leakage Reduction Reducing leakage from our network is a priority for Irish Water. This can involve a range of measures for actively detecting and repairing leaks such as the installation of meters to better identify customer leakage activity and advanced monitoring tools and techniques to better identify leaks. Leakage reduction will focus on Active Leakage Control, targeted replacement of ageing pipes, pressure management to minimise fluctuations and excessive pressures, providing more constant pressures to our customers whilst reducing bursts and the application of different leak repair approaches to minimise cost and disruption. Use Less Water Efficiency Education & Awareness Educational awareness campaigns and partnerships to raise awareness of water shortages and encourage water conservation and efficiency. Water Efficiency Measures Use of water efficient products and processes in new and refurbished housing developments and working with building standards to ensure that water efficiency measures are included in standards and regulations as mandatory. Encouraging take up of water efficiency measures by domestic and non-domestic customers such as more efficient appliances, repair of leaking toilets, use of water audits. Actively pursue business customers and industry for partnerships that involve water efficiency goals. Investigate how to use water within Irish Water’s existing assets more efficiently through improved treatment processes and recycling of effluent water for appropriate uses. Recycling and Reuse The recycling of treated wastewater or grey water provides a critical supplementary water source for non-potable activities therefore alleviating stress on primary water sources. Grey water refers to the water used in baths, sinks, washing machines, and other kitchen appliances. In periods of drought, when potable water is in short supply, grey water can be a potential alternative water source for activities such as agricultural and landscape irrigation, industrial process, and toilet flushing. Metering Domestic water metering can build a better understanding of water use and network pressures to improve water efficiency and therefore water security and identify leaks. Water meters with advanced analytics to undertake flow balances across the network can allow Irish Water to gain a better understanding of the whole network from the abstraction point to the customers 145 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan NWRP category NWRP sub- category Summary Supply Smarter – resource supply options Surface Water Surface Water Abstraction Increasing the abstraction at an existing river or lake source or developing a new river or lake source from which water can be sustainably abstracted. These options would be subject to an abstraction licence. Groundwater Groundwater Abstraction Increasing the abstraction at an existing groundwater source or developing a new groundwater source from which water can be sustainably abstracted. These options would be subject to an abstraction licence. Aquifer Storage Recovery Storage of treated or raw water in suitable aquifers. During times of plentiful water supply, excess water withdrawn from a river, lake or another groundwater source is injected and stored within an aquifer. This supplementary stored water can be extracted from the aquifer during periods of dry weather and/or increased demand when the primary supply sources are running low. This requires aquifers with suitable characteristics to be available as the risks of losses can be high. Reservoirs Storage Reservoirs Provision of storage reservoirs which can be filled with untreated water abstracted during high flow conditions from surface waters to be drawn on during low flow periods or to provide additional resilience during droughts as a back-up supply source. Catchment Management Catchment management for ground or surface water sources Activities such as agriculture, forestry, industry and waste management all have an impact on the retention of water in the catchment and the quality of the water within rivers and lakes. Pollutants in the water can lead to ecological deterioration, increased flood risk and can also create issues for water treatment. There may be scope for changes to land management through working in partnership with landowners, farmers and regulators to develop agreements and share information and resources to provide long term improvements with wide benefits including water suitable for supply from surface or groundwaters. Effluent Reuse Effluent Reuse Recycling of wastewater effluent from treatment plants can produce a new supply source from wastewater which is otherwise discharged to rivers or the sea. This involves treating wastewater to a sufficiently high standard to meet supply standards relevant for the intended use for example for agricultural/horticulture/industry or for release to rivers to compensate for an abstraction upstream. Desalination Desalination: Coastal or Brackish This involves the process of removing salt and other minerals from seawater or brackish water from river estuaries to make it suitable for human consumption and/or industrial use. The level of treatment required is related to the salt concentration of the water and variability of raw water characteristics. Water Transfers Transfers Water transfer is the physical movement of water from one area to another usually via pipelines. These generally refer to the transfer of treated water and can vary considerably in scale in terms of size and length from local transfers from one WRZ to another, to regional transfers and inter-utility transfers (from Northern Ireland Water). 146 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan NWRP category NWRP sub- category Summary Tankering Delivery of treated water to customers via road tanker to alleviate temporary short-term water shortages in certain localised situations. Network Improvements Network Improvements (general) Network improvement involves works such as upgrade, replacement or operational improvements. They are undertaken to facilitate better water distribution and avoid network limitations. Therefore, strategic network reinforcement improving connections between different sources and customer supply can significantly improve security and resilience. Service Reservoir Expansion Service reservoirs store treated water. They are used to balance out the steady supply of treated water they receive from WTPs and the fluctuating variations in customer demand during a 24-hour period. They can also be used to store a backup supply in low flow events but for a limited period of time. WTPs WTP Expansion/ Rationalisation Expansion of existing WTPs to facilitate the treatment of a higher volume of water. This option would be considered in combination with an increase of a surface water or ground water abstraction or the provision of a new surface water our ground water source. Expansion of existing WTPs may be carried out as part of a rationalisation process which involves the merging of WTPs. Rationalisation is carried out to reduce water supply costs, take a malfunctioning WTP out of service or to cease abstraction from an unsustainable source. WTP Process Losses For every litre of untreated water extracted from a source and fed through a WTP to the supply distribution network, a small fraction of the water will be lost from the system as a result of the treatment losses. Generally, WTPs are designed to recover, treat and recycle as much of the waste stream as economically feasible. However, there can be opportunities to improve efficiency through the upgrading and installation of more complex treatment processes to reduce these process losses and therefore increase the WAFU. 147 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.3.4 Stage 4: Coarse Screening The Unconstrained Options list is refined using a Coarse Screening assessment, which enables us to rule out any non-viable options. The remaining options, known as “Constrained Options ”, can then be carried forward for more detailed Multi Criteria Assessment at the Fine Screening Stage. The Coarse Screening assessment uses the criteria listed in Table 8.4, with Options scored against a red, amber or green traffic light system shown in Table 8.5. Any Option which scores “red” against a question has a fundamental issue that would be difficult to mitigate and is discounted on the basis that it is unlikely to ever be delivered. An amber rating across any of the coarse screening criteria will not rule out an option, however, it will highlight that this option may require mitigation. For example, a surface water abstraction from a source which is designated as a European site will obtain an amber rating (assuming that it meets the allowable abstraction limit) against the Deliverability and Flexibility criterion and Sustainability (Environmental and Social Impacts) criterion. However, such an Option will most likely require mitigation which will take time to develop. Therefore, we must allow for consideration of the likely environmental site assessments and studies that will need to be carried out within the Framework Plan level costing for an Option. A ‘Rejected Options Register’ is produced to record and explain all Options that are screened out on the basis of a red rating. Table 8.4 – Unconstrained Options Assessment criteria Criteria Unconstrained Option Assessment questions Assessment Score Resilience Q1 Does the Option address the supply-demand problem? Yes / Maybe / No Deliverability and Flexibility Q2 Is the Option technically feasible? Yes / Maybe/ No Q3 Can the risks and uncertainties associated with the Option be mitigated to avoid failure of the Option? Yes / Maybe / No Sustainability (Environmental and Social Impacts) Q4 Can the impacts on known high level environmental constraints including at internationally designated sites be avoided? Yes / Maybe / No Table 8.5 – Red, Amber and Green decision matrix RAG matrix Red Amber Green Resilience Does not address the supply- demand problem at all. May address part of the supply-demand problem (with due consideration on the size of the deficit). Fully addresses the supply-demand problem. Deliverability & Flexibility Option is not technically feasible. Associated risks and uncertainties are unacceptable and will result in a failure of the option. There are some risks and uncertainties associated with the Option but are not considered to be insurmountable at this stage. Option is technically feasible. There are no associated risks or uncertainties which are unacceptable. Sustainability (Environmental and Social Impacts) Likely unacceptable impacts on European designated sites or WFD objectives* which cannot be There are some impacts identified. However, they are not considered to be prohibitive at this stage due to the No major issues or sensitivities identified at this stage. 148 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan RAG matrix Red Amber Green avoided through design or mitigation. * Options that cannot meet sustainable abstraction limits are removed/red rating potential for improved design and/or mitigation. 8.3.5 Stage 5: Fine Screening Fine screening involves an analysis of the Constrained Options against a range of detailed assessment criteria, through a process known as Multi Criteria Assessment (MCA). The objective of the MCA and the fine screening process is to determine the potential benefits and impacts of the Options across a range of key criteria. It involves dividing the decision into smaller, more understandable parts and analysing each part before integrating those parts to produce a meaningful assessment. The MCA process allows a combination of issues to be considered together. This can help indicate if one Option will be more: cost effective, environmentally acceptable, promotable, resilient or feasible when compared to other Options. This process requires a more detailed analysis of the Options and their potential benefits and impacts against the key criteria. This allows us to highlight issues with Options which were considered to be feasible at the coarse screening stage but on further review are not considered viable. The MCA methodology has been tailored to provide a structured and transparent approach to inform the decision-making process and to remove subjectivity, as far as reasonably possible. It also recognises that both monetary and non-monetary objectives may influence decisions. The MCA approach applies a common set of questions to determine the relative merits of each option across the key criteria. The questions are developed by dividing the criteria from the coarse screening stage into detailed sub-criteria against which options can be assessed. Table 8.6 lists the criteria, sub- criteria and questions that are applied at the Fine Screening Stage. Table 8.6 – Fine Screening Questions MCA criteria Sub-criteria Fine screening questions Resilience Outages Is there vulnerability due to failure/outages caused by, for example, flooding, pollution, damage, freeze-thaw, loss of power supply? Is there provision of additional resilience (from new Option) to outage events at existing sources? Financial uncertainty Is there vulnerability due to increasing energy or commodity prices? Regulatory changes Is there vulnerability to future regulatory and legislation changes including changes to environmental legislation? Climate change Is there improved resilience for Irish Water due to climate change and / or drought conditions? Deliverability & Flexibility Flexibility Are there benefits due to short lead in time to deliver the Option? Is there phased or incremental delivery of the Option? Is it possible to adapt the option once delivered, to meet any future changes? 149 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan MCA criteria Sub-criteria Fine screening questions Are there benefits due to a short ramp-up time for the Option to deliver potable water into supply? Deliverability Is there experience in delivering similar solutions (technology or construction methodology known to Irish Water)? Is there deliverability uncertainty due to land ownership or suitable land availability? Are there construction uncertainties due to land stability or contamination risk? Is there dependency on existing assets for successful delivery? Are there any major issues with the Safety, Health and Welfare at Work (Construction) Regulations, 2013 that could change the scope or put at risk the successful delivery of the option? Is the required technology tried and tested with Operations Department? Is there quality and confidence of design information? Progressibility Sustainability Are there any major local planning issues that could change the scope or put at risk the successful delivery of the Option? Are there any major issues with regulatory consents or permissions that could change the scope or put at risk the successful delivery of the Option? Synergies Are there synergies with other WRZs, other water companies on the island of Ireland, in the UK, or third parties? Sustainability (Environmental and Social Impacts) Population, health, economy & recreation Will the Option impact public health and quality of life, during construction? Will the Option impact public health and quality of life, during operation? What is the impact on recreational amenities? Water environment: quality & resources Would the option or associated construction activities affect WFD Status of water body, in terms of quantity and quality for surface water? Would the option or associated construction activities affect WFD Status of water body, in terms of quantity and quality for groundwater? Would the option or associated construction activities affect WFD Status of water body, in terms of hydro morphology? Would this Option reduce pressure on water environment through water savings? Is there a potential for this option to increase flood risk – e.g. increase base flow or result in loss of flood plain? Will Navigation be affected? Biodiversity, flora and fauna Is there potential to result in adverse effects on the integrity of a European site? Is there potential to impact on an Annex species outside European designated areas? 150 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan MCA criteria Sub-criteria Fine screening questions Is there potential to impact on National designated sites? Is there potential to impact on Biodiversity in all other areas? Is there a risk of spreading Invasive Non-Native Species (INNS)? Material assets Will the Option make effective use of existing assets? Will this Option conflict with critical infrastructure, or does the option conflict with existing business, planned land use or valuable agricultural land? Landscape and visual amenity Could this Option impact the landscape character areas, townscape character areas or important views (detract or improve)? Climate change What is the level of construction and operational carbon emissions associated with the Option (tonnes)? Cultural heritage and archaeology Does this option avoid direct damage to, or detract from the setting of, designated cultural heritage assets, or does this contribute to protecting them? Geology and soils Would any designated or non-designated geological features, valuable soils, or contaminated land sites be affected? Each Option is subject to an objective assessment with uniform scoring criteria, based on best publicly available datasets. Options are scored using a seven-point Likert scale, from -3 to 3, as set out in Appendix N. The environmental MCA criteria are linked to the SEA objectives developed from the SEA Scoping Report through consultation with environmental stakeholders. Some criteria/screening questions may be more relevant to some Options types than others, and where a criteria or sub-criteria is not relevant it is simply considered as “not-applicable” (N/A) and is discounted in the overall appraisal of the Option. Where criteria are found not to be relevant for comparing between Options within a particular study area, they can be put aside to focus the assessment. Appropriate Assessment has been integrated into the Options Assessment Methodology in particular through the MCA/ fine screening assessment questions and scoring for the European sites (biodiversity) question (see Best AA approach, Table 8.6) The screening process provides MCA scores for each of the Feasible Options which then pass through to the Approach Appraisal stage for further consideration. Where there are a very large number of Options covering a range of Option types, fine screening can be used to identify poorly performing options. These can be removed or placed on a reserve list for future consideration should they be required. Options that passed through the constrained options stage might also be removed at fine screening if a more detailed assessment shows them to be unsuitable. Any Options which are discounted at this stage are recorded on the Rejected Options Register. Better performing Options are taken forward for further consideration in the feasible list. This method can be appropriate for large WRZs or study areas. Only Options identified as clearly not feasible, unsustainable or unacceptable will be removed. Where Options perform poorly against specific sub-criteria, the potential for design or mitigation to address effects will be considered. If there is any doubt as to whether a particular Option should be classified as feasible or not, then that Option will be carried forward to the feasible list with risks identified. 151 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.3.6 Stage 6: Feasible Options List – Option Costing The output of the Fine Screening stage is called the Feasible Options List. A Plan Level outline design and estimated cost is developed for each option on the list. “Whole life” construction and operation costs are based on Irish Water’s PCT (Project Costing Template) to ensure alignment with Irish Water’s investment processes. It should be noted that assessments at this stage are desk based and plan level assessments. Environmental impacts and costing of projects are further reviewed at project level where alternatives will need to be considered as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment process in the usual way. No statutory consent or funding consent is conferred by inclusion of any option in the Regional Water Resources Plan. Any projects that are progressed following identification as Preferred Approaches in the Regional Plans, will require individual environmental assessments in support of planning applications (where a project requires planning permission) or in support of licencing applications (for example, for new abstractions). As the Framework Plan level costing is intended to be a comparative assessment between Option types, we do not include detailed project level costing for “In-Flight Projects”. This is to ensure that the methodology in this Framework Plan is uniformly applied in the development of Preferred Approaches. 8.3.7 Stage 7: Approach Development 8.3.7.1 Test a Range of Approaches The purpose of the RWRPs will be to examine all potential Options that could be used to address identified need and then to eliminate those that are not feasible or that have identifiable environmental issues (at a desktop level). After fine screening the remaining Feasible Options are assessed against a specified number of Approaches. We test the Options against six approaches which were selected to align the NWRP with all relevant Government Policy. The six approaches are summarised in Table 8.7 and discussed in further detail. Table 8.7 – Range of Approaches to Test Feasible Options Approaches Tested Description Policy Driver Least Cost Lowest Net Present Value (NPV) cost in terms of Capital, Operational, Environmental and Social and Carbon Costs Public Spending Code Best Appropriate Assessment (Best AA) Lowest score against the European Sites (Biodiversity) sub-criteria question: Score = 0 equates to no likely significant effects (LSEs). If, in our opinion, these 0 scoring options meet the deficit/ plan objectives, they are automatically picked as the Preferred Approach. Score = -1 or -2 equates to LSEs that can be addressed with general/standard mitigation measures. Score = -3 equates to LSEs that may be harder to mitigate or require significant project level assessment. Habitats Directive 152 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Approaches Tested Description Policy Driver Quickest Delivery Based on an estimate of the time taken to bring an option into operation (including typical feasibility, consent, construction and commissioning durations) as identified at Fine Screening This is particularly relevant where an option might be required to address an urgent Public Health issue. Statutory Obligations under the Water Supply Act 2007 and Drinking Water Regulations Best SEA Environmental This is the option or combination of options with the highest total score across the 19 No. SEA MCA sub-criteria questions SEA Directive and WFD Most Resilient This is the option or combination of options with the highest total score against the resilience criteria. National Adaptation Plan Lowest Carbon This is the option or combination of options with the lowest embodied and operational carbon cost Sectoral Adaptation Plan Least Cost Approach The Least Cost Approach is determined using a Net Present Value assessment tool which establishes the Option or combination of Options with the lowest comparative Net Present Value cost encompassing: Environmental and Social Costs, Carbon Costs, Capital Costs and Operational Costs. We consider this approach to allow our plan level assessments to align with the requirements of the Public Spending Code and the National Adaptation Framework. Best Appropriate Assessment (Best AA) Approach The Best AA approach gives maximum consideration to the Options with no potential for impacts on European Designated (no Likely Significant Effects or LSEs) sites or Options with LSEs that can be addressed with general/standard mitigation measures at the project level. This can equally be described as giving maximum consideration to the Options with the Least Impact on European Sites. It puts avoidance of impacts on European sites at the forefront taking account of the fact that Options with a high likelihood of significant effects which could lead to adverse effects on a European Site have already been removed at Coarse Screening stage. Quickest Delivery Approach The quickest delivery is based on the estimated time for an option to be brought into operation (including typical feasibility, consent, construction and commissioning durations) as identified at Fine Screening. This approach allows us to potentially optimise the Preferred Approach by minimising the time taken for an Option to be become operational. This could be appropriate in a WRZ with a critical water quality issue that might impact on public health, as this approach would identify the Option that could potentially be delivered in the shortest possible timeframe. As the NWRP does not confer funding or statutory consent for any project, and the identified Needs across 539 WRZs must be prioritised on a national basis, we would be unlikely to modify an approach based on Quickest Delivery, unless there is a critical driver. Best Environmental Approach The Best SEA Environmental Approach is the Option or combination of Options performing best overall across the 19 SEA objective-based MCA environmental criteria, assessed as part of the Fine Screening assessment described in Section 8.3.5. Positive and negative scores are summed separately. 153 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan The purpose of this approach is to ensure that the SEA objectives to minimise potential impact are considered through the Options Assessment and Approach Selection process. For each Option or combination of Options, we assess the MCA scoring in detail across all SEA assessment criteria, using the sum of positive scores as well as the sum of negative scores. We also review the scoring against individual criteria to identify where assessment reflects important differences between Options focusing on potential operational or long-term effects. This ensures that we can review the relative merits of each Option. Most Resilient Approach The Most Resilient Approach is the Option or combination of Options with the highest scores from the four MCA screening questions relating to Resilience criteria. This approach is aligned to the NWRP objective to ensure a safe and secure water supply in the short, medium and long term. Lowest Carbon Approach The Lowest Carbon Approach is the Option or combination of Options with the lowest embodied and operational carbon costs. This approach is aligned with Irish Water’s carbon reduction policies and the NAP in relation to climate change. 8.3.7.2 Approach Assessment Ranking Depending on the complexity and size of the WRZ or Study Area, the best performing Feasible Options for each of the six approaches are determined using either: • EBSD (Economics of Balancing Supply and Demand) Lite; or • EBSD Model EBSD Lite The Preferred Options to meet the need for each of the six Approaches (Least Cost, Best AA, Lowest Carbon etc.) are derived by ranking the Options in order of lowest to highest total NPV cost and with regard to their applicable MCA scores for the six Approaches. This approach is generally better suited to smaller WRZs and Study Areas, as it allows for a simple comparison of individual Options where the entire need can be met from single Options. Where the assessment is required to consider a range of different and more complex combinations of Options to meet a need, then the more detailed, full EBSD analysis is required. 154 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 8.101 – EBSD Model Approach EBSD Model The full EBSD Model evaluates the range of potential Approaches comprising single or different combinations of options for a WRZ to reflect the key criteria used in the Fine Screening stage namely: resilience; deliverability and flexibility; progressibility; sustainability (environmental and social impacts) and cost. The full EBSD Model then produces an optimised programme of investment to meet the needs of a WRZ over a defined planning period (25 years in this Plan). The model does this by evaluating the Fine Screening criteria and determining: • Which Options should be selected; • When the Option should be implemented; and • What utilisation should be made of the Option within the planning period. For each of the six Approaches (Least Cost, Best AA, Lowest Carbon etc.), Irish Water use the EBSD Model to derive an optimum combination of Options to address the future need based on the MCA scores. The Approach development process is designed to determine the Best Value approach to meet the need and this is then identified as the Preferred Approach. Best value is identified as the approach that provides the best performance overall, balancing across the range of NWRP and SEA objectives. The input data and structure of the EBSD model is shown in Figure 8.11. 8.3.7.3 Approach Appraisal We then compare the Options identified for each of the six Approaches (Least Cost, Best AA, Lowest Carbon etc.) against each other to come up with a Preferred Approach that meets the objectives of the Framework Plan and aligns with all relevant Government Policy. The Approach Appraisal process involves: 155 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan • Identify the Option or combination of Options that best conform with each of the six Approach descriptions, for example, the Option or combination of Options that would be classified as the Least Carbon Approach, Least Cost, Best AA etc. • Assessing the Approaches against each other, following the 8-step process set out in Figure 8.8 in order to develop a Preferred Approach for each WRZ. • Identifying interim measures that might be required in a WRZs to meet a potential immediate need. The eight step Preferred Approach Development Process is summarised in Figure 8.8. The following principles will be used to ensure its consistent application in developing Phase 2 of the NWRP: • If an Option is identified that meets the Objectives of the Framework Plan and is assessed as having no potential impact on a European Site (zero or neutral score based on desktop assessment), it is automatically adopted as the Preferred Approach at WRZ level. • As all our Feasible Options have all passed the coarse and fine screening process, The Least Cost Option is used as Step 1 in the development of the Preferred Approach. • The Preferred Approach must meet the Objectives of the Framework Plan (i.e. to address the identified need). • Although the Preferred Approach development process starts with the Least Cost approach, it must give the highest consideration to Environmental Legislation and Government Policy on climate change adaptation and public expenditure. • We also consider at this stage any project level information available for In-Flight Projects to sense check them against the Preferred Approach. For example, detailed project level costings might reveal that an In-Flight Project identified as a Preferred Approach is more expensive than the Framework Plan level estimates, or the progress already made for an In-Flight Project is less than a Preferred Approach that is not an In-Flight Project. • The Preferred Approach at a Plan level does not confer any consent to develop a project, nor does it preclude other options being considered subsequently at the project Level. 8.3.7.4 Preferred Approach The Preferred Approach to address the need for each WRZ is identified using the Approach Assessment Process set out in Figure 8.12. When we compare the various approaches as part of this process we are looking to identify where the approaches provide significantly better performance for some outcomes without incurring significantly worse performance against other outcomes. During the development of the Framework Plan we attempted to define this as a rules-based exercise and trialled the approach. Given the complexity of the considerations for each WRZ, this often resulted in compromised solutions. As a result, we have decided to maintain this as an exercise in professional judgement from the multidisciplinary teams involved. The description of options and factors influencing selection will be recorded in the options spreadsheets at each stage of the screening process. The description reflects the considerations of the specific aspects and issues arising for each of the options and the outcome of the approach development. The Approach Development Process will be conducted via a combination of interactive workshops supported by a process of ongoing engagement and dialogue between the technical experts, including Engineers, Hydrologists and Hydrogeologists, Ecologists and Environmental Scientists working directly on the development of the Preferred Approach selection for the Regional Water Resources Plans. Stakeholders including Local Authorities and the EPA will be consulted throughout the approach 156 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan development process for their input and feedback. The preferred approach outcomes for each Study Area are signed off at the final preferred approach workshop and the expert team document the agreed outcome for each Water Resource Zone in the Preferred Approach Spreadsheets. There will be an opportunity for public submissions on the identified Preferred Approaches when the draft RWRP’s and supporting material are published for consultation, following which the Preferred Approaches may be subject to further change, as appropriate. The Approach Development process repeated at the Study Area, and Regional Area levels in order to develop the four Regional Water Resources Plans. Figure 8.112 – Approach Assessment Process11 As part of the feedback loop from the NIS for the Framework Plan, a better approach to options with LSEs i.e. -1 to -3 score for biodiversity at Fine Screening are identified where possible. As per the Approach Development process (see Step 0 in Figure 8.12) if there is an option that meets the objectives of the Plan and is assessed as having no potential impact on a European site i.e. no LSEs (based on desktop assessment) it is automatically adopted as the Preferred Approach. Furthermore, because it is possible that all of the potential impacts identified at Plan level can be entirely ruled out through project level investigation and analysis or avoided through project level mitigation, options with potential for 11 Least cost includes environmental and social costs. 157 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan LSEs (score of -1 to -3 for biodiversity) may be progressed as the Preferred Approach. If potential impacts cannot be ruled out or avoided, then mitigation in the form of avoidance is provided for within the NWRP to protect European site(s). Should potential adverse effects on European sites be identified at the project level from a given option/Preferred Approach the NWRP will have identified other options [1] that could be progressed at the project level if required. Therefore, no project arising from the NWRP, with AESI identified at the project stage would be implemented. 8.3.7.5 Sensitivity Analysis Our supply demand forecast has been developed using the best available information and the application of best practice methods where we have the data to do so. We have identified areas where we will focus improvements in data to improve the certainty of our forecasts. However, all long-term forecasts are subject to uncertainty. Therefore, we will incorporate a sensitivity analysis check, in our Approach Assessment Process, to allow us to stress test the sensitivity of the Preferred Approach against a range of possible future scenarios which could alter the Supply Demand Balance and impact on need. This will ensure that our decision making is robust and that the Preferred Approaches developed are adaptable. Table 8.8 sets out some examples of uncertainty factors that we will check at the end of the Preferred Approach development. In reality, a combination of these scenarios may occur together. For example, we may find growth in demand is lower than forecast, and/or we achieve greater leakage reductions at the same time as the abstraction licensing regime limits our water availability. In this case reductions in demand would offset some of the increasing deficit arising due to abstraction sustainability reductions. Should an outcome of the Sensitivity Assessment find that a preferred option will not be resilient or adaptable to changing future scenarios, we reassess it against the options identified for the six approaches during the Approach Appraisal phase and consider if an alternative should be progressed. As data and models improve over time Irish Water will incorporate a more extensive approach to sensitivity analysis in the shape of Adaptive Planning. Adaptive Planning provides the flexibility to respond to uncertainty when it occurs (e.g. climate change impact increases). 8.3.7.6 Interim Solutions As outlined above, Irish Water will develop a plan level Preferred Approach for each WRZ as part of the overall NWRP in the context of the development of the four RWRPs. However, it is likely to take multiple investment cycles before Irish Water can deliver the Preferred Approach as identified in every WRZ, due to such factors as: • Scale of need across all WRZs; • Likely minimum project lead-in times; and • Irish Water’s current capital funding arrangements. With that context in mind, Irish Water also recognises the need for localised, shorter term interventions within existing supplies to address critical water quality risk and supply reliability issues, before the Preferred Approach can be implemented in full. Accordingly, the NWRP also provides for an “interim solution” approach, which allows such interventions to be identified and prioritised. As a general principle, this interim approach envisages shorter term, improvements to existing infrastructure and equipment (which may ultimately be decommissioned at a later date). These [1] These options may not have progressed as the Preferred Approach initially as they may have scored significantly worse against other environmental, resilience or feasibility criteria (e.g. the best AA approach may identify an option that results in four times more carbon being produced or is twice as expensive). 158 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan interventions are separate from the Preferred Approach for the relevant WRZ and are not intended to deliver a long-term solution to identified supply and water quality issues. Any projects identified according to the interim approach will be progressed on the basis of urgent or priority need, ie critical need identified through the DWSP approach and other Irish Water programmes (see Box 8.1). These interventions will allow Irish Water to continue delivering safe, secure and reliable water supplies in the near term, subject to all appropriate regulatory consents, until Irish Water implements the Preferred Approach within the relevant WRZ. The NWRP does not confer funding availability or statutory consent on any interim solution. If an interim option is deemed necessary, funding approval in addition to all applicable consents will need to be obtained for it to progress. Box 8.1 Determining urgent priority and interim solutions Urgent priority need is determined via the DWSP approach, the Remedial Action List and by ongoing Irish Water programmes such as the National Disinfection Programme, the Leakage Reduction Programme and the National Drought Programme. The aim of the National Disinfection Programme is to upgrade and standardise disinfection systems across the country in a two-phase approach: 1) Assess the WTPs and 2) Complete upgrade works. Through the assessment phase additional critical water quality risks may be identified and interim solutions such as delivery of prefabricated packaged WTPs and pump replacement offer temporary short-term management solutions. In-flight projects and programmes such as the RAL and disinfection programmes will not be delayed due to the roll out of the preferred approaches identified in the four RWRPs. 159 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 8.8 – Summary of our Sensitivity Assessment (non-exhaustive list) Uncertainty Factor Likelihood Impact on SDB Impact on deficit Discussion New abstraction legislation introducing sustainability limits on quantities to be abstracted High (as our current abstractions are large compared to the water bodies from which they abstract) Reduction in DO Larger SDB deficit. Although the likelihood of this scenario is high based on a desktop assessment of our existing abstractions, potential impacts may be mitigated against by optimising our operations on a more environmentally sustainable basis across the range of supplies. Climate change impacts on supplies are greater than anticipated Moderate (central climate change estimate used) Reduction in water availability at certain times of the year Larger SDB deficit. Although the likelihood of this scenario is moderate based climate change allowances made in this Plan, potential impacts may be mitigated against by optimising our operations on a more environmentally sustainable basis across the range of supplies. Domestic demand is lower than expected and/or Non-domestic demand is lower than expected. Low/Moderate (growth has been based on policy) Growth in demand is lower than forecast. Smaller SDB deficit The SDB deficit is driven by many factors including limitations in existing supplies, the reliability of the overall supply and assumptions on demand growth. If demand does not growth as significantly as we forecast there will still be a supply demand deficit in many WRZs. The required intervention to resolve the deficit may be smaller. We achieve good levels of effectiveness and efficiency in reducing leakage Moderate/High (Irish Water is focused on sustainability and aggressive leakage reduction) Leakage reduces to below SELL within the period of the plan Smaller SDB deficit Irish Water will strive to be progressive in our leakage reduction plans. However, due to the supply and reliability issues we have this will not negate the need for other interventions to address the supply demand deficits. Ability to reduce leakage in accordance with targets, due to, lengths of networks, access to assets, need to maintain and budget constraints. Moderate (the distribution network is extensive) Leakage does not reduce to SELL within the period of the plan Larger SDB deficit Due to the length and condition of our networks, we could potentially fail to achieve leakage targets in the timeframes set out. However, as Irish Water is committed to achieving leakage reductions, the likely scenario would be an extension in the period of time taken to achieve leakage reductions as opposed to accepting lower targets. 160 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.3.8 Stage 8: Monitoring and Feedback into Plan The Public Water Supply in Ireland is a live asset base and is subject to continuous change. New assets such as water treatment plants, storage reservoirs, trunk and distribution mains are continuously developed and upgraded. Knowledge and data relating to our assets is improving and operational procedures are being standardised. External factors can also influence the performance of our water supplies, including: • Changes in legislation and policy that impact the way we operate our asset base or our interface with the natural environment • Reductions in water supply availability due to climate disruption and environmental impacts • Growth in demand for water for domestic and non-domestic use • Funding availability and requirements to improve Levels of Service to water users All of these factors influence need in terms of Quality, Quantity, Sustainability and Reliability; therefore, the Supply Demand Balance and Barrier Scores in this Framework Plan represent a snapshot in time of live metrics. Similarly, the development of Preferred Approaches as part of the forthcoming four RWRPs is influenced by evolving scientific data, understanding, and policy change in relation to the natural environment. Irish Water must be able to continuously adapt to these changes, which may be minor or material in nature. As part of the implementation of this Framework Plan, we are committed to the implementation of the SEA recommendations and Monitoring Plan. This Framework Plan commits to undertaking continuous monitoring and ensuring that there is a feedback mechanism within the Framework Plan and RWRPs. The RWRPs will be subject to formal review every five years; however, this continuous monitoring process will ensure that material amendments are assessed for significant impacts on the environment. 8.3.8.1 Monitoring and Feedback Process The monitoring and feedback process involves: • Implementing the Environmental Action Plan and Monitoring Plan as described in the SEA Statement (Chapter 4) • Identifying the internal and external factors that may impact the Framework Plan, mapping the areas of the Framework Plan that they will influence; • Updating needs identification by updating the Supply Demand Balance, Drinking Water Safety Plans and Barrier scores to reflect these changes; • Assessing the impact of these changes on the Framework Plan and Preferred Approaches Developed within the RWRPs and; • Updating the Need in the RWRPs where the changes are deemed to be material. In certain circumstances, monitoring and feedback will identify the need for a variation of the NWRP - Framework Plan or a RWRP. Where a variation is required, Irish Water will screen the change for SEA and AA in accordance with its legal obligations. 161 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan As part of the screening, Irish Water will consult with the EPA and relevant Government Departments as required by Article 9(5) of the EC (Assessment of Certain Plans and Programmes) Regulations 2004 (SI 435/2004). If, following screening, Irish Water determines that the change is likely to have significant effects on the environment it will carry out SEA before adopting the change. Irish Water will also carry out an AA if it determines, following screening, that the change is not directly connected with or necessary to the management of any European site and Irish Water cannot, on the basis of objective scientific information, exclude the possibility that the change, individually or in combination with other plans and projects, will have a significant effect on European sites, as required by Article 42(6) of the EC (Birds and Natural Habitats Regulations) 2011 (SI 477/2011). Indicative List of Factors Tables 8.9 and 8.10 provide an indicative but non-exhaustive list of internal and external factors that may influence the Framework Plan with potential knock on effects on the four RWRPs*. From the tables it can be seen that the Framework Plan is largely ring-fenced once adopted, however, changes in Need have the potential to modify the RWRPs. This table is intended to anticipate such changes to inform the design of the NWRP - Framework Plan, but Irish Water will review and screen for SEA and AA any changes as they arise and may determine that they are material where the table considers them to be minor, and vice versa, on the basis of the full information then available. * Non-exhaustive list. Irish Water will review any changes, consultation feedback and identify whether they are material and update the plans where necessary 162 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 8.9 – Factors that may influence the Framework Plan Framework Plan Area of Plan Likelihood Predicted Impact Likely Action Legislation or new Guidelines on Water Resources Planning by Irish Water’s Financial or Environmental Regulator: At present there is no regulatory framework or guidelines for water resources planning in Ireland. Should regulations or guidelines come into effect within the time frame of the plan, the framework may need to be modified to reflect this Methodology Low/ Moderate Material If material - Variation on Plan Legislation and Regulations on the Abstraction of Water from the natural environment: At present the Irish Government is developing new legislation on abstraction of water from the natural environment, aligned with the Water Framework Directive. This legislation and subsequent regulations on abstraction may have the potential to alter the volumes of water we currently abstract at existing sites and the volumes of water we can abstract from new supplies Need High Minor in terms of the methodologies used in Framework Plan (as we have accounted for this change both in our sustainability assessments for existing supplies, and ensure that all new options prepared as part of the Framework Plan conform to conservative abstraction rules) Update SDB and assess impact on preferred approaches in the Regional Strategic Resources Plans. If material, this will not change the framework but can potentially impact the subsequent Regional Plans. Sustainability: The 3rd Cycle of the River Basin Management Plan is currently underway. Identification of significant pressures in water bodies relating to hydromorphology, land use planning, agriculture, siltation and hazardous chemicals, have the potential to influence need in our water supplies Any outcomes from the SEA Statement and monitoring plan. Need High Minor (as we have accounted for potential changes within other risk- based approach to our supplies Update SDB, DWSP and Barrier Scores and assess impact on preferred approaches in the Regional Plans Leakage and Network Performance: Leakage reduction is a core activity within our plan, however, leakage is dynamic and naturally increases over time as assets deteriorate. Therefore, reducing leakage is a function of continuous reduction and maintaining established leakage savings. Across a large distribution network, there can be uncertainty amount Need Moderate Minor (we have included sensitivity assessments of leakage performance as part of the Preferred approach Development process) Update SDB and assess impact on preferred approaches in the Regional Plans 163 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Framework Plan Area of Plan Likelihood Predicted Impact Likely Action achieving target leakage reductions within the required timeframes, but also the potential for exceeding targets. This has the potential to modify our demand forecasts within the Plan. Domestic Demand Growth: The Irish Water Forward Planning team interfaces directly with the Regional Assemblies and the Local Authority Planning Departments during the preparation of the regional growth strategies and the County Development Plans. As these strategies and plans are completed, the information at settlement level will become more granular and has the potential to modify demand within the supplies. National Water Resources Framework Plan - Need Low/Moderate Minor (we have continuously updated our demand figures, based on feedback from the Regional Assemblies and established interface with the Local Authority Planning and Development Sections Update SDB, DWSP and Barrier Scores and assess impact on preferred approaches in the Regional Plans Non-Domestic Demand Growth: Ireland has a significant and established manufacturing base across high water use sectors such as Pharmaceutical, Agri Food, Manufacturing and Hospitality. Irish water engages with key stakeholders such as the IDA and Local Authority Planners. However, it can be difficult to fully anticipate growth in high water use sectors. National Water Resources Framework Plan - Need Low/Moderate Minor (we have continuously updated our demand figures, based on feedback from the Local Authority Planning and Development Sections and via the Pre-Connection Enquiry process within our Connection Developer Services function. Update SDB and assess impact on preferred approaches in the Regional Plans Data Improvements: Irish Water’s data and intelligence systems are being continuously updated. These improvements will allow us to further develop our understanding of existing supplies, components of demand and supply specific peaking factors, outage allowances and headroom. Similarly, through catchment initiatives, monitoring of our treatment plants and distribution networks as part of the rollout of the Drinking Water Safety Plans, our understanding of Water Quality and Reliability issues is continuously improving. National Water Resources Framework Plan - Need Low/Moderate Minor (we have continuously updated SDB and Barrier scores as new information becomes available) Update SDB and assess impact on preferred approaches in the Regional Plans 164 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Table 8.9 - Factors that may influence the Regional Water Resource Plans Regional Water Resource Plans (4 no.) Area of Plan Likelihood Predicted Impact Likely Action Updated Need: This could impact the Preferred Approach outcomes within the Regional Plans Need Low/ Moderate Minor/ Potentially Material (in development of feasible options for each water resource zone we use conservative estimates of potential new supply availability as set out in Chapter 4) Ensure feasible options are based on conservative estimates. Engage with Environmental Regulator on Preferred Approaches within each Regional Plan. If Preferred approach is altered on a regional basis, and the Preferred Approach is to be delivered within the timeframe of the Plan, this will require variation on Plan Improvements in available scientific and environmental datasets: This could impact the Preferred Approach outcomes within the Regional Plans Preferred Approach Development High Minor/ Potentially Material (we use best available data to screen options as part of the SEA/AA processes) Assess impact on Preferred Approach. If Preferred approach is altered on a regional basis, and the Preferred Approach is to be delivered within the timeframe of the Plan, this will require variation on Plan * Non-exhaustive list. Irish Water will review any changes, including feedback from consultation and identify whether they are material and update the Framework Plan where necessary 165 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 8.13 shows the feedback process in relation to the Framework Plan in terms of monitoring, impact assessment, feedback loop and actions. Tables 8.9 and 8.10 show the frequency of these steps. As can be seen material changes in either the Framework Plan or the RWRPs will result in variations, however minor changes can be incorporated into the existing Framework Plan process. Figure 8.13 - Feedback Loop - Framework Plan 166 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan We apply a defined process to develop the Preferred Approach at the three spatial scales shown in Figure 8.14: 1. Assess the Feasible Options to develop a Preferred Approach for each WRZ. This would be expected to result in small local Options that can resolve need solely within all or part of the WRZ. 2. Assess the Feasible Options to see whether any Regional Options are available to meet the need across multiple WRZs. This stage can yield a modified Preferred Approach at the Study Area Level. 3. We then assess the Feasible Options at the Regional Area level to see if there are any Options that can be applied across the entire Region and, if appropriate, adjust our Preferred Approach accordingly. 4. The final stage is to assess any inter-regional options and potential cumulative or in combination effects and determine if any adjustment is required. (This will be addressed sequentially in each of the RWRPs in turn). 8.3.8.2 SEA and AA of Preferred Approaches Following identification of the Preferred Approaches as part of the RWRPs (including the SEA and AA requirements considered throughout the Approach Development), SEA and AA assessments will be undertaken of the Preferred Approaches. This will include cumulative and in combination assessments. The assessments will feed back into the process where additional significant effects are identified and mitigation to address cumulative and in combination effects will be included in the overall recommendations. The SEA Statement and AA Determination for the adopted Framework Plan, as well as any mitigation and monitoring recommendations identified, will also be taken into account in the RWRPs. As part of the implementation of the Framework Plan, we are committed to the implementation of the SEA recommendations and Monitoring Plan. The AA Determination forms the output of the AA process. Figure 8.14 - NWRP Spatial Scale of Assessment 167 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 8.4 Summary In this section we have described our proposed methodology to develop the Preferred Approach or Approaches to resolve water resource needs across our supplies. We have also described how evolving data and circumstances will be considered on an ongoing basis as part of a monitoring and feedback process. The Options Assessment and Preferred Approach Development Methodology described in this Framework Plan will be applied to all of the WRZs in the four RWRPs currently being developed. 168 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 9. What Happens Next What Happens Next 9 169 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Key Points In this Chapter we will provide: • A summary of the Framework Plan • An outline of our next steps to implement our three-pillar approach and new Options Assessment Methodology, to improve the LoS we are able to provide for our customers 9.1 Summary of the Framework Plan This Framework Plan describes the process that Irish Water will use to transform our asset base and move towards a sustainable, secure, reliable and sustainable drinking water supply for everyone over the next 25 years. It describes the baseline performance of our existing asset base including: • Current Levels of Service: • Issues with single source supplies • Performance issues during extreme whether events such as storms, drought period and freeze- thaw events • Asset Performance in terms of the standards we have set for risk to water quality • Asset Performance including high leakage • Potential sustainability issues with our supply sources • Funding Constraints Box 9.1 At a national level we currently have a Dry Year Critical Peak demand of 2,266 Million litres per day with a corresponding supply available of 1,773 Ml/d. This gives a deficit of 493Ml/d. If there is no change to current water efficiency or reductions in leakage, by 2044 we forecast a demand of 2,308Ml/d and a supply that falls to 1,762 Ml/d because of climate change. This will result in a deficit of 546Ml/d. The available supplies will reduce further when abstraction licensing regime is introduced as some of our sites may not comply with WFD Abstraction Standards. 9 170 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 9.1.1 Identify the Need We have detailed the methods we use to estimate quantity need through the Supply Demand Balance assessment (Figure 9.1). A Supply Demand Balance Forecast has been developed for each of our 539 Water Resource Zones, for four Weather Event Planning Scenarios, including Normal Year Annual Average, Dry Year Annual Average, Dry Year Critical Period and Winter Critical Period. The supply demand balance is forecast over a 25-year period from 2019 to 2044. Figure 9.1 - Supply-Demand Balance Our SDB calculations estimate that over 58% of our WRZs are at risk of being in deficit during a normal year. A deficit means that the quantity of water we can supply is exceeded by the total Demand for water. In these circumstances there is a risk of disruption to the service we provide for our customers. During the Dry Year Critical Peak (equivalent to a summer drought), 66% of our WRZs are currently in deficit. 171 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 9.1.2 Identify the Need: Quality and Reliability We have detailed the methods we use to estimate risk to water quality and reliability using the Drinking Water Safety Plans and the Barrier Assessments across all of our supplies (Figure 9.2). Our Barrier Assessment of Water Resource Zones summarised in Chapter 6, shows that in some cases our current asset capability does not meet the standards we have set for ourselves. Therefore, significant asset transformation and capital investment may be required over the coming regulated investment cycles, to ensure that our supplies are secure and address risks to water quality. 9.1.3 Identifying appropriate solutions: Our Three Pillar Approach Our Framework Plan is based on the best currently available data. It has detailed the SDB, Barrier Assessment approaches and identified need across all of our Water Resources Zones. Within this Framework Plan we have developed the methodology we will use to reduce or eliminate identified needs and bring greater resilience to the water supply network over future investment plans. We have described our Three Pillar Approach to developing solutions based around Lose Less, Use Less and Smarter Supply which encompass both our current and future activities. Lose Less: reducing water lost to the system through leakage Use Less: reducing water use through efficiency measures Supply Smarter: improving the resilience and security of our supply through infrastructure improvements. Figure 9.2 - Irish Water’s Barriers for achieving Safe & Secure Drinking Water 172 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan We will implement the three-pillar approach through our current and future activities to deliver a minimum of 1 in 50-year Level of Service to all our customers and ensure the sustainability and reliability of all assets. 9.2 Options Assessment Methodology and Preferred Approach Development The objective of the National Water Resources Plan is to incrementally improve our supply networks to provide safe, secure, reliable and sustainable sources of supply for our customers. To achieve this we must ensure that our supplies are based on: • Consideration of Government Policy, Sectoral Adaptation Plans and the Circular Economy • Sustainable water sources that do not impact on the environment and are resilient to climate change • The required number and variety of water sources in each supply to allow us maintain supply continuity across a range of weather events • Appropriate catchment protection activities and water treatment facilities that ensure compliance with Drinking Water Regulations in all weather conditions • Innovation, new technologies and Ecosystem Services where possible • Ability to address current and future deficits with the flexibility to manage inevitable unpredictable events. • Reliable and interconnected distribution networks that provide the required Levels of Service to our customers • Careful Operational Management and continued investment in capital maintenance • Efficient and low energy networks with the continued emphasis on leakage reduction • The principles of Water Conservation and reducing demand In order to ensure that we achieve the objectives of our plan and that we transform the existing national public water supply, we have developed an Options Assessment and Preferred Approach methodology shown in Figure 9.3. 173 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 9.3 - Options Assessment and Preferred Approach Methodology 174 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan 9.2.1 Delivery of the National Water Resources Plan As this is our first National Water Resources Plan (NWRP), within this Framework Plan we have described how it has been split into two distinct Phases. This is further summarised as follows: 9.2.1.1 Phase 1: NWRP – Framework Plan Phase 1 of the NWRP -Framework Plan included: • A screening for the NWRP • An SEA scoping (Phase 1 NWRP Consultation one) • The methodology used to develop our plan including: o How we assess quantity need through the Supply Demand Balance o How we assess quality and reliability need through the Barrier Assessment o How we address Sustainability by ensuring that all new options for water supply must be based on conservative approaches to protecting water sources o Our Options Assessment Process o Our Preferred Approach Development Process • An assessment of Need across our asset base in terms of Quality, Quantity, Reliability and Sustainability for all of our supplies nationally. • A sample Case Study of the methodology in the draft Framework Plan applied to a number of Water Resource Zones, provided as supporting material for the Phase 1 NWRP Framework Plan – Consultation two. • The options assessment and preferred approach methodology outlined in this Framework Plan, as adopted by Irish Water having considered all of the submissions received during the Phase 1 NWRP Framework Plan –Consultation two process, will now be applied to all of our current water supplies in Phase 2 of our NWRP, where we will develop the four Regional Water Resources Plans. 9.2.1.2 Phase 2 NWRP: Four Regional Water Resource Plans In order to manage the delivery of Phase 2 of the NWRP, the public water supply has been divided into the four Regional Areas shown in Figure 9.4. We will now: • Apply the methodology in this Framework Plan to the Regional Areas of Water Supplies • Develop Plan Level Preferred Approaches (solutions) for all water supplies within these areas. The Regional Water Resource Plans (RWRPs) will be referred to as follows: • Regional Water Resource Plan: North West (Group Area 1) • Regional Water Resource Plan: South West (Group Area 2) • Regional Water Resource Plan: South East (Group Area 3) • Regional Water Resource Plan: Eastern and Midlands (Group Area 4) Figure 9.4 - Regional Water Resources Plan – Regional Areas 175 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Figure 9.5 – Key elements of the NWRP and the Phase 1 and Phase 2 Consultations 176 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Following the adoption of the Framework Plan, Irish Water will now develop and consult on the four Regional Water Resource plans, as summarised in Figure 9.5. 9.3 Tracking our Progress Irish Water will establish clear metrics in conjunction with the relevant regulators to monitor our progress in delivering a more sustainable and robust supply system. Key metrics will be the number of customers receiving target Level of Service (LoS), and the number of unsustainable abstractions identified through the RBMP process. The first of these measures will be identified through the Security of Supply measure being developed in conjunction with the CRU. The second will be through abstraction activities identified alongside the EPA. The objective will be to deliver a minimum of 1 in 50 LoS to all customers and remove all unsustainable abstractions. Both will require considerable investment and time to implement. Periodic targets will be established through the NWRP. 9.4 Adoption of the NWRP - Framework Plan We consulted on the draft Framework Plan between the 8th of December 2020 and the 12th of March 2021. This Framework Plan is an amended version of the draft Framework Plan as consulted on and has been amended in light of and following consideration of all submissions received. The consideration given to all of the submissions received on the draft Framework Plan is contained in a Consultation Report. The Consultation Report attaches a version of the Framework Plan showing all changes made to the draft Framework Plan. The Framework Plan is accompanied by an SEA Statement and Appropriate Assessment Determination as required by law, which were adopted with this Framework Plan. These Phase 1 NWRP documents can be viewed at https://www.water.ie/projects- plans/our-plans/nwrp/ Phase 2 of the NWRP, which requires the development of and consultation on four Regional Water Resources Plans is underway. Those RWRPs are due for completion in 2022 following consideration of submissions received during the relevant consultation processes. We will apply the Options Assessment and Preferred Approach methodology set out in the Framework Plan to each water supply. This will allow us to develop a nationwide programme of short, medium- and long-term options that we will present for consultation within draft RWRPs. The RWRPs once adopted will be used to inform future regulated capital investment plans and operational plans on a national basis. Consultation on Phase 2 of the NWRP, the Regional Water Resources Plans, including corresponding SEA Environmental Reports and Natura Impact Statements, will be undertaken during 2021 and 2022. https://urldefense.com/v3/ https:/www.water.ie/projects-plans/our-plans/nwrp/ ;!!B5cixuoO7ltTeg!WARal5BlyDkyZCeG-Bt8lFrrW2PCe3SQc mtYfIo3TWynUSY9dVXWD56s9Bj9YWaSQTnsQ$ https://urldefense.com/v3/ https:/www.water.ie/projects-plans/our-plans/nwrp/ ;!!B5cixuoO7ltTeg!WARal5BlyDkyZCeG-Bt8lFrrW2PCe3SQc mtYfIo3TWynUSY9dVXWD56s9Bj9YWaSQTnsQ$ 177 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan Glossary of Acronyms and Terms Term Description AA Appropriate Assessment Best AA The approach that following a desktop assessment, has the least impact on a European Site (without consideration of mitigation measures) ALC Active Leakage Control BIM Bord Iascaigh Mhara BWN Boil Water Notice CER Commission for Energy Regulation CFC Coagulation/Flocculation/Clarification CRU Commission for Regulation of Utilities CSL Customer Side Leakage CSO Central Statistics Office DAFM Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine DO Deployable Output DHLGH Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage DHPLG Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government DMA District Metered Area(s) DWD Drinking Water Directive DWR Drinking Water Regulations DWSP Drinking Water Safety Plan DYAA Dry Year Annual Average DYCP Dry Year Critical Period EBSD Economics of Balancing Supply and Demand EPA Environmental Protection Agency FDC Flow Duration Curve GDA Greater Dublin Area GSI Geological Survey Ireland Headroom Headroom is the term given to a buffer in the SDB. It accounts for the uncertainty with data and the assumptions used in the supply and demand estimates and forecasts. HSE Health Services Executive IBEC Irish Business and Employers Confederation ICARUS Irish Climate Analysis and Research Unit 178 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan IDA Industrial Development Authority Ireland INTERREG Series of European Regional Co-Operation Programmes LAWPRO Local Authority Waters Programme LMS Leakage Management System LoS Level of Service MCA Multi-Criteria Analysis MCW Marginal Cost of Water Ml/d Mega litres per day MSSA Midlands Strategic Study Area MUR Meter Under Registration NAP National Adaptation Plan NCCAF National Climate Change Adaptation Framework NIS Natura Impact Statement NOM Natural Organic Matter NPDWAG National Pesticides and Drinking Water Action Group NPF National Planning Framework NPV Net Present Value NPWS National Parks and Wildlife Service NRR Natural Rate of Rise of Leakage NWRP National Water Resources Plan NYAA Normal Year Annual Average OFWAT Economic Regulator of the Water Sector in England and Wales PAP Pesticide Action Procedure PCC Per Capita Consumption PCT Project Costing Template PHC Per Household Consumption Progressibility Criterion to assess relative difference between options, and how progressible different options may be RAL Remedial Action List Raw Water Quality The chemical characteristics or quality of the water in the river/lake/groundwater source before it is treated. RBMP River Basin Management Plan RSES Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy 179 | Irish Water | National Water Resources Plan - Framework Plan RWRP Regional Water Resources Plan SDB Supply Demand Balance SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SEAI Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland SELL Sustainable Economic Level of Leakage SLA Service Level Agreement Tankering Delivery of water supplies by water tanker THM Trihalomethane TOC Total Organic Carbon TTHM Total Trihalomethane UARL Unavoidable Annual Real Losses UKWIR UK Water Industry Research Ltd WAFU Water Available For Use WCP Winter Critical Period WFD Water Framework Directive WHO World Health Organisation WRc Water Research Centre Ltd., UK WRZ Water Resources Zone WSPS Water Services Policy Statement WSSP Water Services Strategic Plan WSZ Water Supply Zone WTP Water Treatment Plant ZOC Zone of Contribution