Initial National Communication of the Cook Islands

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change October 1999 Revised Edition, March 2000 Copyright by PICCAP Cook Islands Cook Islands Government Design and production by Scenix Marketing, Auckland Cook Islands Initial National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change October 1999 Revised Edition, March 2000 COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E 1 Initial National Communication Of the Cook Islands Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change October 1999 COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E FOREWORD 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRYNOMS 4 GLOSSARY 4 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 7 2.1. BACKGROUND 8 2.2. GEOGRAPHY 9 2.3. HISTORY 9 2.4. GOVERNANCE 9 2.5. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 9 2.6. LOCAL GOVERNMENT 9 2.7. TRADITIONAL LEADERS 9 2.8. CLIMATE 9 2.8.1. Weather Systems that affect the Cook Islands 11 2.8.2. Formation and Classification of Tropical Cyclones 11 2.8.3. Tracking of Tropical Cyclones 11 2.8.4. Cyclone Warning System 11 2.9. POPULATION AND SOCIAL SITUATION 12 2.10. WELFARE 12 2.11. EDUCATION AND TRAINING 13 2.12. THE ECONOMY 13 2.13. TOURISM SECTOR 14 2.14. AGRICULTURE SECTOR 14 2.14.1. Land Use Change 15 2.15. MARINE RESOURCES SECTOR 15 2.16. OTHER PRODUCTIVE SECTORS 16 2.16.1. Development Investment Board 16 2.16.2. Off Shore Banking 16 2.17. TRANSPORT 16 2.18. ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE OUTER ISLANDS 16 2.18.1. Future Prospects for the Outer Islands 17 2.19. ENERGY 17 2.20. WATER RESOURCES 17 2.21. TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE BIODIVERSITY 18 2.21.1. Marine 18 3. NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES 19 3.1. INTRODUCTION 20 3.2. GREENHOUSE GASES 20 3.3. METHODOLOGY AND DATA 21 3.3.1. Sources of data 21 3.4. ORGANISATION 21 3.5. EMISSIONS 21 3.5.1. Power Generation 22 3.5.2. Transport 22 3.5.3. Domestic 23 3.6. MEMO ITEMS 23 3.6.1. International bunkers 23 3.7. AGRICULTURE 23 3.7.1. Land Use Change and Forestry 23 3.7.2. Managed Forests 24 3.8. WASTE 24 3.8.1. Solid Waste 24 3.8.2. Methane 24 3.8.3. Liquid Waste 24 3.9. CONCLUSION 24 4. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 27 4.1. INTRODUCTION 28 4.2. CLIMATE AND SEA-LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS 28 4.3. TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL SCENARIOS FOR THE COOK ISLANDS 28 4.4. SEA-LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS 28 4.5. VULNERABILITY 29 4.5.1. Coastal Zone and Coral Reefs 29 4.5.2. Agriculture, Food Security and Diet 29 4.5.3. Marine Resources 29 4.5.4. Water Resources 29 4.5.5. Biodiversity 30 4.6. EFFECTS 30 4.6.1. Coastal Zone 30 4.6.2. Coral Reefs 30 4.6.3. Coastal Erosion and Flooding 30 4.6.4. Agriculture 31 4.6.5. Marine resources 31 4.6.6. Human Health 31 4.6.7. Water Supply and Quality 32 4.6.8. Biodiversity 32 4.7. ADAPTATION MEASURES 32 4.7.1. Marine Resources 32 4.7.2. Coastal Zone 32 4.7.3. Agriculture, Food Security and Diet 33 4.7.4. Water Resources 33 4.7.5. Human Health 33 4.7.6. Biodiversity 33 5. CROSS SECTORAL MEASURES 35 5.1. INTRODUCTION 36 5.2. POLICY MEASURES 36 5.2.1. National Goals 36 5.2.2. Future Outlook 36 5.2.3. Additional measures for government consideration 36 5.2.4. International Environmental Treaties 37 5.3. RESEARCH PROGRAMMES 37 5.3.1. Meteorological Service Current Systematic and Observational Networks 38 5.3.2. Disaster Management 38 5.3.3. Agricultural Research 38 5.3.4. Marine Research 38 5.4. EDUCATION AND AWARENESS PROGRAMMES 39 5.4.1. Formal Education 39 5.4.2. Informal Education 39 5.4.3. Media and Climate change: public awareness and media campaigns 39 5.5. CONCLUSION 6. LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS 40 7. BIBLIOGRAPHY 41 COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1 ISLAND ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES 10 TABLE 2.2: CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES 11 TABLE 2.3 ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE COOK ISLANDS 14 TABLE 2.4: LIST OF ENDEMIC SPECIES RARE AND SIGNIFICANT SPECIES 18 TABLE 3.1 Ð COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS BY SOURCES AND REMOVALS BY SINKS OF ALL GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL 20 TABLE 3.2 SOURCES OF DATA 21 TABLE 3.3: SECTORAL CO2 (GG) EMISSIONS BASED ON FUEL TYPES 21 TABLE 3.4: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE COOK ISLANDS 22 TABLE 3.5: TOTAL TRANSPORT TYPES (1994) 22 TABLE 3.6: CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (GIG) FOR TRANSPORT SECTOR22 TABLE 3.7 INTERNATIONAL BUNKERING 23 TABLE 3.8: METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK 23 TABLE 3.9 CARBON UPTAKE BY FORESTS 24 TABLE 3.10 MITIGATION OPTIONS 25 TABLE 4.1 TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL SCENARIOS 28 TABLE 4.2 SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS 28 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2.1 LOCATION MAP 8 FIGURE 2.2: COMPARISON OF RAINFALL PATTERNS IN THE COOK ISLANDS 11 FIGURE 2.3: COOK ISLANDS TEMPERATURE 11 FIGURE 2.4: COOK ISLANDS POPULATION 1945 TO 1996 12 FIGURE 2.5 1996 AGE DISTRIBUTION 12 FIGURE 5.1: INTEGRATED COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH 31 COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRYNOMS ADB Asian Development Bank AWS Automatic Weather Station CH4 Methane CINHP Cook Islands Natural Heritage Project CISB Cook Islands Savings Bank COP Conference of the Parties CO2 Carbon Dioxide DIB Development Investment Board EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EIA Environmental Impact Assessment ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation ERP Economic Reform Programme FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation GCM Global Circulation Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility Gg Gigagrams GHG Green House Gases GIS Geographic Information System GMT Greenwhich Mean Time GOES Ð 10 Geo-stationary Operational Environmental Satellite HADCM Hadley Circulation Model IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas NGO Non Governmental Organisation NOAA National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration N2O Nitrous Oxide PICCAP Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme SOPAC South Pacific Applied GeoScience Commission SPCZ South Pacific Convergence Zone UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework on Climate Change USP University of the South Pacific V&A Vulnerability and Adaptation WHO World Health Organisation WMO World Meteorological Organisation GLOSSARY Ariki The person invested with the traditional title or rank of office of Ariki (chief) Aronga Mana A group of traditional leaders Koutu Investiture sites Koutu Nui Meeting or gathering of traditional leaders Makatea Raised coral Maire Hawaiian Maile, Foliage garland Maori Indigenious people to the Cook Islands or indigenous language to the Cook Islands Marae Meeting place National Retreat Meeting of representatives of government and all sectors of the community Noni Morinda Cirtrifolia RaÕui Traditional method of conservation Paepae House sites Pawpaw Hawaiian papaya Tapa Traditional cloth made of tree bark Tarua Xanthosoma Te Aponga Uira O Tumutevarovaro Rarotonga Power Supply Tutaka Environmental health inspection carried out by the Department of Public Health Ui Ariki Group of Ariki COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 INTRODUCTION The preparation of the Cook Islands Initial National Communication was funded by the Global Environment Fund Climate Change Enabling Activity through the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme (PICCAP). The initial communication is a culmination of activities undertaken by Cook Islanders since November 1997. A national country team was established with the support of government agencies and a PICCAP co ordinator was appointed. Cook Island consultants were identified to undertake field studies, compile information and prepare the country’s first reports on the national inventory of greenhouse gas sources and sinks as well as the national assessment of vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise. Capacity building activities included learning how to scientifically assess likely vulnerability and adaptation options at the International Global Change Institute (IGCI) based at Waikato University in New Zealand and the University of the South Pacific in Suva, Fiji. Many other opportunities to support technical training and capacity building of Cook Island nationals has been available through the UNITAR CC Train pro gramme. The national communication is presented in four sections: ● National Circumstances ● National Inventory of Greenhouse Gases ● Vulnerability and Adaptation ● Cross Sectoral Measures NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES The Cook Islands like other small islands is a combination of low-lying islands, atolls and volcanic high islands. They lie within the extensive and persistent trade wind zone of the South Pacific and are free from the influence of large land masses or continents. The islands enjoy a mild maritime climate with a pronounced wet season (November to April) where two thirds of the annual rain falls, and a dry season (May to October). The population and economic activities are concentrated in the coastal zones and therefore vulnerable to climate change or the potential impacts of sea level rise. Tourism is the Cook Islands major income earner and is reliant on the islands natural beauty. Adverse climate conditions causing temperatures to rise could have a major impact on this fragile tourist based economy. Other economic activities such as agriculture and fish eries remain small contributors to the national cake but still play a major role in supplying local market needs and ensuring balanced diets are maintained. Marine resources are one of the Cook Islands least exploited natural resources. The production of and farming of black pearls and pearl shell from the northern group islands is the second most important sector after tourism and is forecast to increase substantially over the next 10 years. Electricity generation for the Cook Islands is heavily dependent on imported petroleum products. The Government is committed to provid ing all households with 24 hour electricity and today 98 percent of homes in the Cook Islands have electricity. Water resources are a major concern for the Cook Islands with no water reservoirs available on any of the 15 islands. The main source of water is from stream, roof catchment systems, boreholes and private or communi ty water tanks. The biodiversity of the Cook Islands is relatively small with indigenous flowering plants and birds mainly in the southern group islands and fewer numbers in the northern group where there is decreasing habitat com plexity. This section demonstrates the fragility and critical nature of our small nation that requires continued support if Government is to recognise as a high priority the need to protect the environment for sustainable develop ment. NATIONAL INVENTORY FOR GREENHOUSE GASES The Cook Islands Inventory for Greenhouse Gases has been calculated for the year 1994 and is limited to the best information available. It is noted that although IPCC guidelines have been followed this approach has been modified to account for the fact that the IPCC guidelines do not fully capture issues of scale for small island developing states and the unique characteristics of the Cook Islands. Greenhouse Gas emissions for the Cook Islands are Carbon dioxide 32.564Gg, Methane 0.504Gg and Nitrous Oxide 0.1198Gg. These are very small per capita emissions and therefore a reduction would not be noticeable or have little impact to the average person. Identified mitigation options for the Cook Islands includes, promotion for energy efficient appliances, renewable energy and ground transport improvement. The study has highlighted the need for further training in statistical data collection and maintenance to improve the Cook Islands reporting oblig ations. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION The National Vulnerability and Adaptation Statement is an initial assessment and overview of the Cook Islands vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise. It is recognised that development and social changes have placed pres sure on sensitive environmental systems and sectors of the Cook Islands and therefore adverse impacts of anticipated changes in climate and sea level rise will further exacerbate the stress on these systems if they do eventuate. Due to the lack of quantitative data, the limited scientific capa bilities, limited studies or absence of previous literature qualitative state ments are made. The vulnerable sectors identified in this statement are agriculture and food security, coastal zone and coral reefs, marine EXECUTIVE SUMMARY resources, water resources and biodiversity. The likely impacts on these sectors can be summarised as follows: Urbanisation has reduced the availability of good agricultural land and for small atolls these low lying areas will require special alternative sys tems of cultivation, and salt resistant crops. It will be essential to manage development more closely to increase the resilience of sensitive coastal areas and foreshores so thereby reducing vulnerability when extra stress from climate change or sea level rise occurs. Control of waste, run off and pollutants in coastal and marine areas should be better controlled. Ground water resources should be further investigated. All these measures would be enhanced with a public awareness pro gramme to improve environmental awareness generally and support the need to understand changes that would occur due to human activity and influences as well as climate or sea level related changes. For the Cook Islands to respond successfully and implement appropri ate adaptation strategies each major sector has identified information gaps and capacity building requirements that must be addressed. CROSS SECTORAL MEASURES The measures that will be undertaken by the Cook Islands, which will have, cross cutting implications for all of the vulnerable sectors identified. These measures will support all mitigation and adaptation options to be implemented. They include policy measures, research and education and awareness. Incorporation and main streaming of climate change and sea level rise issues into government policy is ongoing and will take time to achieve. Adaptation and mitigation strategies for the Cook Islands will be based on an integrated and comprehensive approach, which encompasses the health and well being of the nation. Local communities should be involved at all stages of the development of adaptation programs. The lead sector should be coastal and marine areas and an adaptation plan, to be part of a climate change action plan, should be drafted, implemented, monitored and regularly updated. Current economic development objectives are based on the national aspiration to increase the per capita income of all Cook Islanders and to share in the productive sectors of the economy. This is a shift from a pol icy of dependence to one of self-reliance. The current developmental objectives take greater account of the potential of human resources to increase productivity and utilise the private sector as the engine to drive the economy. The National Communication concludes that a national adaptation strat egy in the Cook Islands should follow a ‘no-regrets’ approach. Such an approach would prioritise the development and implementation of poli cies and measures which are beneficial for both the environment and the well being of the Cook Islands even in the absence of climate and sea level change. Stronger measures must be adopted in the management of the environment to reduce the risk of climate change, which will be diffi cult to predict and therefore manage. All these measures should be inte grated into economic planning and implemented through an integrated and comprehensive approach. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 7 CChhaapptteerr 22 NNAATTIIOONNAALL CCIIRRCCUUMMSSTTAANNCCEESS 2.1. BACKGROUND The Cook Islands comprises 15 small islands scattered over some 1.8 million sq. km of the South Pacific Ocean between Samoa and Tonga on the west and French Polynesia on the east. Their location is between lat itudes 9 degrees and 22 degrees south and longitudes 157 degrees and 166 degrees west. The islands are divided geographically along a line between Palmerston and Suwarrow into a Northern Group (six islands) and a Southern Group (nine islands). The land area is 240 sq. km with over 88 per cent (214 sq. km) of the land area in the Southern Group. The Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Cook Islands is 1.8 million square kilometers of the South Pacific Ocean. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 8 Penrhyn RakahangaPukapuka Manihiki Nassau Suwarrow Palmerston Aitutaki Manuae Takutea MitiaroAtiu Mauke Rarotonga Mangaia COOK ISLANDS NORTHERN GROUP SOUTHERN GROUP N Auckland Singapore Hong Kong Bankok Manila Tokyo Anchorage Vancouver Los Angeles Panama Samoa Fiji Tonga Hawaii Tahiti COOK ISLANDS Sydney Figure 2.1 Location Map NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 2.2. GEOGRAPHY The islands represent the five different island systems found in the Pacific Basin: high volcanic; low volcanic surrounded by a raised reef platform or makatea, volcanic partially submerged with a large atoll-type lagoon or almost-atoll; the true atolls; and sand-cays. Some environmen tal features of each island are summarised in Table 2.1: Island Environmental Features The low-lying islands have a height range above mean sea level of 5 to 9 meters. Rarotonga is both the largest island (67.2 sq. km) and the high est island (652 meters above mean sea level). With the exception of Manuae and Takutea all islands of the Cook Islands are inhabited. 2.3. HISTORY The Cook Islands became a British Protectorate in 1888 administered by New Zealand and annexed to New Zealand in 1901. The Cook Islands became a self-governing state in free association with New Zealand in 1965 under the Cook Islands Constitution Act 1964 and the Cook Islands Constitution Amendment Act 1965. The severing of formal ties to New Zealand brought to a close the power to direct the internal affairs of the Cook Islands. The Cook Islands can, at any time move to full independence by a unilateral act if it so desires. Her Majesty the Queen Elizabeth II in Right of New Zealand is the Head of State of the Cook Islands. The Queens Representative who is appointed on the advice of the Cook Islands Government, represents her Majesty in the Cook Islands. 2.4. GOVERNANCE The Parliament of the Cook Islands consists of 25 members elected by secret ballot under a system of universal suffrage. The Constitution makes provision for representation in Parliament from nearly all the islands. The 1980-81 Constitutional amendments created an overseas constituency, which includes New Zealand and all other areas outside the Cook Islands. A cabinet of ministers, comprising the Prime Minister and up to five other Ministers, appointed from amongst members of Parliament, as well as a provision for one additional Minister who is not a member of Parliament to be appointed, will have the general direction and control of the Executive Government and are collectively responsible to Parliament. The Prime Minister is appointed by the Queen’s Representative, being the Member of Parliament commanding the confidence of the majority of members. The other Ministers are appointed on the advice of the Prime Minister. 2.5. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT Rarotonga is the main island of the Cook Islands. The capital Avarua on Rarotonga is the central seat of government and the center of com merce. Tourism activity is based primarily in Rarotonga while Aitutaki is a secondary stop. 2.6. LOCAL GOVERNMENT The Outer Islands Local Government Act 1988 applies to all islands except Rarotonga. The Island Councils administer this Act on each Island. Membership of an Island Council consists of the traditional chiefs, Ariki or the Ui Ariki of the Island, a representative of the Aronga Mana (senior citizens) of the Island, the members of Parliament of the Island and the elected members of the island council constituencies for each island. A system of local government for Rarotonga was reactivated in 1997 with the passage of the Rarotonga Local Government Act2. The first elec tions for Mayors and Councillors took place in November 1998. The Island Councils are permanent bodies capable of owning and dis posing property. They will assist in the co-ordination of any activity rele vant to the economic and social development of each island and assist the Government of the Cook Islands in the good rule and government of the islands. 2.7. TRADITIONAL LEADERS The Constitution provides for the establishment of the House of Ariki (chiefs). The House of Ariki Act 1966 and its amendments supplement the provisions of the Constitution. The House comprises eight Ariki rep resenting the Outer Islands and not more than six appointed to represent Rarotonga and Palmerston. The function of the House is to consider mat ters relating to the welfare of the people of the Cook Islands as may be submitted to it by Parliament and to express its opinion and to make rec ommendations thereon. It may also make recommendations to Parliament on any question affecting the customs and traditional practis es of the Cook Islands. A further traditional body has been established by Government known as the Koutu Nui. This provides the Mataipo and Rangitira (sub chiefs) of each of the tribes to also have a voice in the decision making process of government. 2.8. CLIMATE The Cook Islands lie within the extensive and persistent trade wind zone of the South Pacific and are free from the influence of large land masses or continents. The islands enjoy a mild maritime climate with a pro nounced wet season (November to April) where two-thirds of the annual amount falls, and a dry season (May to October). COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 9 Cook Islands Legislative Assembly Building, Rarotonga 1 Cook Islands Review of Environmental Law 1992 2 An Act to provide for a system of Local Government on the Island of Rarotonga. 1997, No. 10. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 10 SOUTHERN GROUP ISLAND TYPE AREA MAX ELE. PRINCIPAL NATIVE HABITATS HABITATS OF MAJOR (km2) (m) CONSERVATION SIGNIFICANCE Rarotonga High Volcanic 67.2 652 Strand vegetation Inland Forest Coastal forest (almost Rarotonga Flycatcher completely replaced by Breeding range agriculture and houses) Petrel nesting range (4 Species) Wetlands (extensively Location of rare plants within forest – modified by agriculture) well known by Cook Islands Fernlands (probably a Secondary habitat) National Heritage Project Inland Forest Tidal salt marsh Cloud forest (Ngatangiia Harbour) Mangaia Makatea 51.8 169 Makatea Forest Makatea Forest Freshwater Wetlands-modified by agriculture Lake (Lake Tiriara) Fernlands (probably a secondary habitat); Inland forest; Cloud Forest. Aitutaki Almost Atoll 18.1 124 Strand vegetation Wetland – saltmarsh Lowland Forest (greatly modified by agriculture) Wetland – saltmarsh Atiu Makatea 26.9 72 Makatea Forest Makatea Forest Freshwater Wetlands (greatly modified by agriculture) lake (Lake Tiroto) Freshwater lake Fernlands (probably a secondary habitat) Mauke Makatea 18.4 29 Makatea forest Makatea forest Wetlands (greatly modified by agiculture) Fernlands (probably a secondary habitat Mitiaro Makatea 22.3 15 Makatea forest Makatea Forest Wetlands (modified by agriculture) (Dwarf Makatea Forest); Freshwater Lakes Freshwater Lakes (Lakes Rotonui and Rotoiti) Peat swamps Manuae Atoll 6.9 10 Strand vegetation Turtle nesting sites Takutea Sand Cay 1.2 5 Strand vegetation Seabird nesting island – very significant and protected by land-owners Palmerston Atoll 2.0 5 Strand vegetation Seabird and Turtle nesting sites NORTHERN GROUP Penryhn Atoll 9.8 5 Strand vegetation Seabird and Turtle nesting sites Manihiki Atoll 5.4 5 Strand vegetation Seabird and Turtle nesting sites Pukapuka Atoll 4.3 5 Strand vegetation Seabird and Turtle nesting sites Rakahanga Atoll 4.1 5 Strand vegetation Seabird and Turtle nesting sites Nassau Sand cay 1.2 9 Strand vegetation Seabird and Turtle nesting sites Suwarrow Atoll 0.4 5 Strand vegetation Seabird and Turtle nesting sites Gazetted as a National Park in 19781 Sources: Rongo 1993, Scott 1993; Mc Cormack 1992; IUCN 1991; Dahl 1986 Table 2.1 Island Environmental Features The Cook Islands are characterised by persistent trade winds through out the year except when they are threatened by depressions or tropical cyclones during the summer periods or the wet season. The trade winds are stronger and more persistent in winter when strong anticyclones pass to the south of the group. In summer, the trades are weaker as the sub tropical anticyclones become less intensive and migrate towards the south. The climate of the Cook Islands is tropical and is dominated by easter ly trade winds. There is a marked season in the rainfall regime where a dry season consisting of only a third of the 2000mm of annual rainfall occurs (May to October) while the other two-thirds occurs during the wet season (November to April). This wet season is also the tropical cyclone season associated with the easterly shift of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) over the country. Figure 2.2: Comparison of Rainfall Patterns in the Cook Islands The average temperature ranges from 21OC – 28OC throughout the year but extremes (i.e., maximum and minimum) have been recorded in the mid-thirties and mid-teens, respectively as illustrated in Figure 2.3. The climate is also influenced fairly strongly by the large inter-annual varia tion and El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Figure 2.3: Cook Islands Temperature 2.8.1. Weather Systems that affect the Cook Islands The tropical cyclone season officially starts on 1 November and ends on 30 April. Cyclones tend to form to the far west of the northern Cook Islands and move erratically towards the south and normally after reach ing latitude 15 south, they tend to take a south easterly track. During El Nino episodes, these cyclones tend to develop in the Northern Group and move onto French Polynesia. During ENSO, the Southern Group experi ence a reduction of rainfall by (up to 60%) of the annual rainfall of 2000mm while in the Northern Group, the annual rainfall of 2300mm increases (up to 200%). This situation is reversed during the La Nina episode whereby the Northern Group would have a reduction in their nor mal rainfall while the Southern Group would have an increase in their normal annual rainfall. 2.8.2. Formation and Classification of Tropical Cyclones The Cook Islands average about three cyclones in every two years but there are also cyclone-free seasons. Tropical Cyclones frequently devel op in a trough of low pressure in the zone of cyclonic wind shear charac terising the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Tropical Cyclones seldom form within 300 kilometres of the Equator where the Coriolis parameter is small, or in the zones of strong vertical shear such as beneath jet streams. Although tropical disturbances may occur all year round, tropical cyclones are usually confined to the warmer months, November to April. These cyclones are named on reaching gale force intensity. Table 2.2: Classification of Tropical Cyclones Strength Wind speed range (knots) Gale force 34-47 (63-87 km per hour) Storm force 47-63 (88-117 km per hour) Hurricane force > 63 (>117 km per hour) Tropical Cyclone Martin caused extensive damage to property and infrastructure and brought human suffering through loss of lives during the 1997/98 ENSO. Tropical cyclone Pam also occurred during ENSO and although the damage was minimal, 213 mm of rain fell in a time span of six hours on Rarotonga, breaking a long period of drought. The rest of the southern group of islands experienced prolonged drought periods dur ing the same time. 2.8.3. Tracking of Tropical Cyclones Tropical cyclones are tracked through satellite imageries: the NOAA polar orbiting satellite and the GOES-10 geo-stationary satellite. These tracks are conveyed to the Cook Islands Meteorological Service by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Nadi, Fiji through a Special Weather Bulletin. When a tropical cyclone nears the Cook Islands, a Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map is used based on an alpha numeric system. This map identifies a grid as the community can relate to a grid on a map rather than a longitudinal and latitudinal position given in the Special Weather Bulletin. 2.8.4. Cyclone Warning System Whenever a tropical cyclone threatens the Cook Islands, cyclone warn ings are issued to enable inhabitants to take necessary precautions. The cyclone warning system comprises of four warnings. Tropical Cyclone Alert: 24-48 hours before the Cook Islands is likely to be affected Gale Warning: 6 hours before the expected occurrence of gale force winds Storm Warning: 3 hours before the expected of storm force winds Hurricane Warning: 3 hours before the expected hurricane force winds COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 11 These warnings are disseminated through the radio, television, tele phone/fax and the Cook Islands News. 2.9. POPULATION AND SOCIAL SITUATION The present social and environmental situation in the Cook Islands has been shaped by the high proportion of expatriate residents compared to other Pacific island countries relative to the local population and the tourist-based economy of Rarotonga. It masks the subsistence lifestyle of most of the outer islands population. The people are Polynesian Cook Islands Maori and share with the indigenous people of French Polynesia and New Zealand a bond of his tory and culture. They are acutely aware of their cultural heritage and tra ditional customs and practices pervade their daily lifestyle. Even though society has been much influenced and altered by external religious beliefs, life-styles and the cash economy, and their adoption of aspects of western culture, traditional culture remains a major influence. While a number of cultural changes have taken place and will continue to do so, the oral traditions of the people, many of the customs surrounding the main phases of life – birth, marriage and death – and the social institutions of the marae (meeting place), koutu (investiture sites) and the paepae (house sites), still persist although some more strongly than others. There is a strong sentiment within the Cook Islands to strengthen the traditional acculturation of the younger generation to reduce the risk of any further decline in the traditional culture. A central element will be the focus on Cook Islands Maori as the national language; this is particularly important because of the close linkage between language, material culture and environmental appreciation. Cook Islanders are able to freely live and work in New Zealand, due to the political status of self-government in free association with NZ, which grants Cook Islanders New Zealand citizenship. Therefore, the high nat ural population increase is offset by emigration. The population has been subject to change with economic cycles as people leave in search of employment opportunities when the economy is in a downturn, whilst numbers rise in times of strong economic growth. Figure 2.4 shows the population of the Cook Islands since 1945. The overall trend is one of increase, although this was offset by a large decrease following the peak in 1971 when economic circumstances resulted in a large net migration. The long-term rate of growth since 1971 has been slower than in the years prior to 1971. Figure 2.4: Cook Islands Population 1945 to 1996 Source: 1996 Census of Population and Dwellings, Cook Islands Statistics OfficeI Internal migration is an important feature of the demography of the Cook Islands and is consistent with either an increase or decrease in eco nomic activity on the islands. 1991 figures showed for example a popu lation increase of Manihiki of more than 30 percent while the population of Mangaia and Palmerston declined by more than 20 percent. This may be attributed to the increase in pearl farming on Manihiki and the lack of economic activity on Mangaia. The age distribution is also affected by internal migration and emigra tion with an ageing population on some of the Outer Islands and of the country as a whole. Figure 2.5 Age Distribution highlights the largest sector of the population is between the age of 0 and 14. This percentage is much larger in the Outer Islands reflecting a very high dependency ratio especially in the Outer Islands. Figure 2.5 1996 Age Distribution Cook Islands population trends and patterns are not directly affected by climatic variation with the exception of hurricane Martin in 1997, which resulted in the evacuation of the majority of the population from Manihiki to Rarotonga, Economic and social factors are particularly important motives for population movements. The 1996 Population Census shows the following distribution of the country’s population Rarotonga 11,153 (59%) Other Southern Islands 5,294 (28%) Northern Islands 2,457 (13%) TOTAL POPULATION 18,904 Current indications are that population distribution, which is consistent with economic development, will continue with a drift to Rarotonga to either reside or stopover in transit for an overseas destination. For those in the outer islands wanting to improve their status, Rarotonga is a natur al attraction for employment opportunities. This move to Rarotonga may be further hastened if the sea level rise phenomenon becomes more criti cal. 2.10. WELFARE There are no visible signs of poverty or destitution in the Cook Islands. Communities in Rarotonga are better off than those in the outer islands. The population of each is scattered amongst several smaller villages and communities. In each community there is a mix of income groups, and there is a strong tradition of mutual support amongst extended families. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 12 Settlement on the main island Rarotonga is concentrated on the coastal zone whilst in the other Southern group islands people are concentrated in two or three main villages, some inland and others on the coast. On the atolls of the Northern Group two or three villages are located on the large islets with frequent movement by motor boats between these large islets and small uninhabited motus. There is no welfare benefit for the unemployed in the Cook Islands. Benefit payments are restricted to children up to the age of 10, old age pensioners, the destitute and the infirm. Broad social indicators place the Cook Islands towards the top in the Pacific in literacy rates and school enrolment ratios. Life expectancy, infant mortality rates and access to safe water and sanitation compare well with Pacific neighbours. Nevertheless, there is significant disparity in access to and the quality of social service provision between Rarotonga and the outer islands. Widely dispersed populations, remoteness and lim ited communications with some outer islands present constraints for equal access and efficient nation wide delivery of service. The government is committed to the provision of equitable cost effec tive services and this has been enhanced through a UNDP project which will assist the Ministry of Outer Islands Development support the devo lution of responsibility in the provision and delivery of these services by the Island Councils. 2.11. EDUCATION AND TRAINING The Cook Islands have a history of education that dates back to the early missionary days. John Williams introduced Western schooling after his arrival in 1823, under the auspices of the London Missionary Society. Missionary teachers from Tahiti taught pupils in Maori with the empha sis placed on religious and practical skills. In 1840 the Missionary Society established a teachers’ training institution in Avarua and by 1860 universal primary schooling was available to the Cook Islands (Coxon, 1991). The Ministry of Education of the Cook Islands is responsible for the administration and implementation of education, in accordance with the 1987 Education Act. There are now 28 primary schools in the Cook Islands, 10 of which are situated on Rarotonga. Of those 28, 23 are gov ernment schools, while the remainder are privately run, with all but one of these run by churches. There are 23 schools offering secondary level education in total, with three located on Rarotonga. A form three schol arship scheme allows selected pupils from the northern group to travel to Tereora College in Rarotonga. Tereora College remains the national col lege of the Cook Islands and the only one to offer classes up to seventh form level. The education system since 1965 has been based on the New Zealand model and generally seeks to achieve similar objectives. Primary educa tion follows a national syllabus and is compulsory for those aged between the age of five and fifteen. Since 1979 it has been government policy to provide a free and secular education system, and as a result the Cook Islands has a high level of literacy. Post secondary education facilities, however, are limited in the Cook Islands, with what limited services there are being based on Rarotonga only. University of the South Pacific (USP) extension center is located in Avarua, Rarotonga. This offers extension courses at the degree and diplo ma level, as well as vocational and community level education pro grammes. There is also a teachers training college in Rarotonga, which provides training for teachers at primary level. Other students wishing to take up tertiary education traditionally travel abroad to do so. Scholarships (through bilateral aid programmes from New Zealand, Australia, World Health Organisation and the Asian Development Bank) are awarded to students to attend institutions in Fiji, New Zealand, and Australia. 2.12. THE ECONOMY The country’s economic characteristics are similar to other Pacific island nations: a large EEZ, limited natural resources, remoteness from major trade and industry centres, absence of economies of scale and skilled manpower shortages. Until recently the economy has been dependent on government-gener ated economic activity and employment. The recent economic reform has seen considerable socio-economic change as well as a shift to a smaller more efficient public service. The Government is committed to reducing the burden on taxpayers and to providing more resources for productive investment. Government’s broad strategy is to facilitate private sector-led economic growth providing opportunities for private sector investment and management of strategic assets3. Cook Islanders have traditionally relied on natural resources to sustain a subsistence lifestyle and to provide marketable surpluses. They contin ue to do so now, especially on the outer islands. Increasingly, through tourism, they now also rely on the islands’ natural beauty. But a sustained productive base has not developed in all sectors; as experienced by the fluctuations of agricultural production and the under-exploitation of fish eries resources. Tourism plays a major part in the economy, estimated at around 37 per cent of GDP4. Agriculture and fishing, finance and business services (mainly onshore and offshore banking) are also important economic sec tors representing approximately 20 percent and 10 percent of gross COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 13 3 Cook Islands Government Half Year Economic & Fiscal Update F98/99 4 Standard and Poor’s, April 1998 domestic product (GDP) respectively. Government forecasts real growth in these sectors over the next three years. GDP in real terms has fallen each year since 1996. However, Government considers the economy to have stabilised and forecasts a recovery in real GDP of 2.9 percent for this financial year 1999/00. Real GDP growth for the following two years is expected to exceed 3 percent per annum. Table 2.3 Economic indicators for the Cook Islands 2.13. TOURISM SECTOR The tourism industry has increased at an enormous rate in the Cook Islands and is now the nation’s greatest income earner. The number of visitors to the Cook Islands has increased fivefold since 1975 from 10,000 per year to around 50,000 per year in 1998. This represents an average growth rate of about 7 percent per annum. However, the number of visi tors has not shown consistent steady growth in the nineties. The number of visitors peaked in 1994, at approximately 55,000 and has since sta bilised at less than 50,000. All, but the very few visitors who arrive by sea, enter at the international airport in Rarotonga. Visitors to Aitutaki, the second most populated and developed island, are estimated at 8,8005 plus an additional 3,400 day trippers. Government forecasts a recovery and growth in tourist arrivals to 2002 of about 6 percent per annum. The natural and human resources of the Cook Islands are the basic assets upon which tourism depends for its very existence. It is therefore in the direct economic interests of the tourism sector to lobby as forceful ly as possible for conservation and sustainable development of the natur al environment. The importance of tourism to the future economy will continue to grow providing the special attraction of the Cook Islands, which draws the tourists in the first place, is not destroyed. Such appeal derives from a blend of people, scenery, and nature tourism opportunity. 2.14. AGRICULTURE SECTOR Agriculture is a fundamental sector of the Cook Islands. The very con cept of “growing your own food” is an inherent part of the culture and heritage of the country and a matter of pride to Cook Islanders as well as providing a means for commercial and subsistence living in the Cook Islands. Since 1970 the agriculture sector has experienced tremendous changes. Currently commercial agriculture production is less than 2000 tonnes rep resenting less than 20% of export earnings6. Although agriculture has been on the decline it remains a key element of the Government economic growth strategy working hand in hand with the growth of the tourism industry. Agriculture is seen as providing the essential fresh supplies to hotel and restaurant owners thus retaining tourist expenditure in the coun try. Subsistence agriculture is fostered so that it will continue to con tribute to improved diets and health of the population generally. The decline in the agricultural production over the last 10 years has placed substantial reliance on imports for the main basic food items. Due to the limited land area and the remoteness of the Cook Islands, agriculture faces disadvantages, in comparison to other developing coun COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 14 5 Source: Air Rarotonga, May 1999 6 Agriculture Annual Report 1997 19961 1997 1998 Social Indicators Population2 19,103 18,300 17,400 Visitor Arrivals 48,354 49,866 48,629 Economic Indicators (NZ$ 000's) GDP (1990 prices) 125,352 121,863 117,200 GDP (current prices) 149,069 144,239 139,732 GDP (per capita)3 7,887 8,290 8,317 Real GDP (% change) -0.20% -2.80% -3.80% Exports 4,581 4,270 6,011 Imports 69,952 72,332 70,716 Current Balance -58,371 -68,062 -64,705 Gross Tourism Earnings 13,547 13,905 13,656 Government Finance (NZ$ 000's) 1996/97 1997/98 1998/994 Government Revenue 45,900 42,400 43,000 Government Expenditure 42,900 44,200 43,000 Net Operating Surplus (Deficit) 3,000 (1,800) 0 Foreign Debt 47,0005 116,2006 116,6006 Domestic Debt 6,900 6,800 5,000 Total Borrowing 54,100 123,000 121,600 Notes: 1 All social indicators for 1996, refer to Census data 2 Total population 3 GDP in current prices by midyear estimated resident population 4 Government estimate 5 NZ$50 million 6 Latest estimate of Ministry of Finance & Economic Management, June 1999 Sources Ministry of Finance & Economic Management, Cook Islands Census of Population and Dwellings 1996 tries of the region, especially in terms of transportation, marketing and economies of scale. The agricultural sector is characterised by a tradi tional land system which can restrict full land utilisation; a high level of part-time activity in agricultural production; limited and expensive inter island and international shipping and air transport services; limited labour supply; restricted availability of long term credit and a high level of gov ernment subsidy for agriculture. Commercial agriculture continues to suffer the effects of drought. Rainfall in 1997 was 32% below the 1971 – 97 average. For the first three-quarters of 1998, rainfall was 10% below that in the corresponding period in 1997. Pawpaw volumes and export sales in 1997 were lower as a result of the reduced rainfall6. Though the Cook Islands is heavily dependent on imported food, the country does not suffer from food insecurity due to its high per capita income and access to New Zealand. In addition, almost all Cook Islanders have access to some land, the lagoons and ocean where they have always grown and caught their own subsistence food. Due to abundance of fish and good soil, there have never been any major difficulties with avail ability of food in the country. However, natural calamities, such as drought and cyclones occasionally disrupt food production. There is ade quate food security, if viewed in terms of access to nutritionally adequate and safe food for all at all times. The problem facing the Cook Islands is excessive consumption of high-energy food and alcohol7. A large proportion of the population are farmers but only one percent of the farming households derive all their income from agriculture. Development changes in production systems, economic and technolog ical changes have altered land use practices. Urbanisation and movement of people to the main island Rarotonga has placed pressure on arable land to be used for non-agricultural purposes such as housing and tourism development. Lack of land in the main centres as well as a shortage of employment opportunities has reduced agricultural production and there fore threatens food security on Rarotonga. The main crop production systems are mixed cropping among subsis tence and semi-subsistence farmers who produce crops for household consumption with a surplus available for sale. Commercial farmers who produce mainly for local sale and export are likely to use small-scale mono cropping. The main vegetable crops include tomatoes, cabbages, lettuces, watermelons, pumpkins, courgettes, capsicums, beans, Chinese cabbage and eggplants as wells as traditional crops such as taro, tarua (xanthosoma), cassava and sweet potatoes. The majority of households in the Cook Islands keep livestock (mainly pigs and poultry) for both home use and sale. The estimated total pig pop ulation exceeds 20,000, around 90 percent of which are on Rarotonga and the other Southern Group islands. Commercial pig production is small and meets most of the domestic protein needs of Cook Islanders. There are 19 commercial piggeries having more than 50 pigs. Agricultural production for local consumption is not able to be reported due to the lack of reliable statistical data available. A mechanism for the collection and collating of agricultural data is yet to be developed. 2.14.1. Land Use Change Land is the single most important factor that relies on the population and the community to make the right decisions. Land determination and pro cedures in the Cook Islands are a combination of custom and judicial pro ceedings. Southern Islands Most islands in the southern group are volcanic in origin. The soil has better physical and chemical characteristics with a greater variation in agro-climate. Potential for agriculture is greater due to these characteris tics. Changes in land use have seen a vast majority of land being used for construction of housing and tourist accommodation. This has followed with changes such as increased population and lifestyle and the greater economic significance of the tourist industry. On the islands of Rarotonga and Aitutaki, buildings occupy much of the arable and fertile agricultural land. These changes mean that land will be used more frequently with much reduction in fallow period thereby caus ing depletion in soil fertility and increases in pest and disease incidences. Agricultural activities will shift to marginal and sloping lands resulting in increased inputs of chemical and or organic pesticides and fertilisers, as well as increased erosion. The change in climate and land use has caused changes in agricultural practices such as; introduction of new plant varieties to better suit the cli mate and soil type; increased production of crops under soil-less (hydro ponic) conditions; and the increased use of efficient irrigation methods for crop production due to greater demand for water from the public for household needs. Northern Islands These seven atoll islands are of small size and remote with limited agri cultural potential thus limiting agricultural activities on these islands. Agriculture is further hampered with the lack of soil on these islands.The foreseeable change of the landscape is that of clearing bush giving way to house lots. Significant in the northern group is traditional claims and cus tomary rights to land and lagoon. This is of growing importance now that the cultivation of pearls is becoming an important and lucrative industry. 2.15. MARINE RESOURCES SECTOR Marine Resources is one of Cook Islands major exploitable natural resources. Cook Islanders have always relied on the sea as a major source of food and it continues to be important to the Cook Islands economy. The production and farming of black pearls and pearlshell from Manihiki and Penrhyn in the Northern Group is the second most important eco nomic sector after tourism. The value of pearl exports for 1998 is up 65% on the corresponding period in 1997. The value of production is set to increase substantially over the next 10 years. Sales from the two main lagoons currently in production are forecast to increase from $NZ5 mil lion in 1998 to $NZ6.3 million in 1999, $NZ10.4 million in 2000 and $NZ18.3 million in 2001. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 15 7 Ministry of Health Annual Report 1996/97 There has been only limited harvest of fish resources within the Cook Islands EEZ. There are a number of bilateral fishing agreements and the licences for foreign fishing vessels have made a useful contribution to for eign exchange earnings. Locally based fishing effort remains small scale. One or more com mercial scale locally based longline ventures may be established in the near future. The exploitation of coastal marine resources is increasing, due in part to population pressure. This is evident in the lagoons and coastal areas where a traditional conservation method (Ra’ui) to prevent exploitation has been enforced since February 1998 on the main island of Rarotonga. The establishment of the Ra’ui has been one response to this growing pressure on coastal marine resources and is expected to be extended to the Outer Islands. Other commercial lagoon fisheries include trochus and giant clams in Aitutaki lagoons. 2.16. OTHER PRODUCTIVE SECTORS While the public sector continues to dominate the economy the private sector is increasingly important to economic growth. This growth, cen tred in Rarotonga, has been spurred by the expansion of tourism. The main private sector activities include construction, wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels, transport, and finance and business services. These activities contribute about 40 percent of GDP. 2.16.1. Development Investment Board Government has established the Development Investment Board (DIB) as a one-stop-shop quasi government agency chartered to facilitate eco nomic growth in the Cook Islands. Its responsibilities include: ● Promotion, facilitation and registration of foreign direct investment; ● Promotion and facilitation of trade into and out of the Cook Islands; ● Assist and increase the participation of Cook Islanders in private sec tor activities; ● Provide business training and advice to the private sector (in collab oration with the Small Business Enterprise Center). The Development Investment Board strives to promote the Cook Islands as a good place to do business, as well as a producer of quality export commodities. This outreach program is achieved through a com prehensive marketing and promotional program which includes: advertis ing, trade and investment missions, client seminars, proactive client response center from the head office in Rarotonga. 2.16.2. Off Shore Banking A major contributor to the economy is the offshore financial services industry. There are five trust companies in the Cook Islands, which spe cialise in the formation and administration of offshore corporations and asset protection trusts for a global clientele. According to a recent indus try publication,8 the United States Internal Revenue Service has estimat ed that 14% of offshore trusts established by United States residents, are established in the Cook Islands, (second only to The Bahamas which is estimated at 18%). In the 1998/99 fiscal year, the industry made a direct contribution to the revenues of the Cook Islands Government by way of registration fees, taxes etc., of approximately USD4m.9 Approximately 70 people are employed directly by the industry. 2.17. TRANSPORT The islands have 379 km of roads. Rarotonga has the most developed network with 86 km of sealed road and 35 km unsealed. Outer island roads are unsealed, usually surfaced by crushed coral. It is estimated that there are over 2000 vehicles (about 80 percent on Rarotonga) but only 820 were registered in 1994. The main marine transport facilities are harbours on Rarotonga (which has two, Avatiu and Avarua) and Aitutaki in the Southern Group and Penrhyn in the Northern Group. Avatiu harbour has a container facility and available berths for visiting yachts. The deep water port at Penrhyn is frequently used by large fishing boats and naval vessels. Loading and unloading cargo for other islands is by lighter. Rarotonga International Airport was built in 1975. Aitutaki has two ser viceable runways built during World War II. Penrhyn and Manihiki in the North have small airstrips as well as coral strips on the other islands of the Southern Group. International transport is provided primarily by Air New Zealand and local air transport is provided by Air Rarotonga. The air lines’ international and domestic flight schedules are largely dictated by tourist demand. 2.18. ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE OUTER ISLANDS The Outer Islands hold the greatest potential for development and investment – however, location, remoteness, and basic infrastructure play important determining factors for potential investors. Viable and operating industries vary by island and they cur rently include: MAIRE (Hawaiian maile – foliage garland) – is presently harvested and processed from the Islands of Mauke and Mangaia. The garlands are exported to Honolulu once a week to meet soaring demand. The indus try is worth some NZ$230,000 per year. NONI (Morinda Citrifolia) – is presently harvested from the Southern Group Islands (80% supply) and also Rarotonga (20%). Raw fruit is picked and exported to Rarotonga for further processing and packaging for export to USA, Australia and New Zealand. This export commodity is estimated to produce NZ$30,000 per month (or NZ$400,000 per year) in direct payments – plus associated benefits. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 16 8 Offshore Finance USA, Sept/Oct. 1999 Ed., p66 9 Figures supplied by the Trustee Companies Association HANDICRAFT – handicraft (hats, mats, tapa, wood carvings, crochet) is produced on a number of islands and exported to Rarotonga for the tourist trade and export. This industry is sustained by small groups of women who share common interests. The value of the industry is not known however requests from potential buyers suggest a growing market for Cook Island handicrafts. Rito a natural fibre which is extracted from the very young frond of the coconut tree, is a speciality of the Northern Group Islands (Penrhyn, Manihiki, and Rakahanga) where it is produced in size able quantities, for weaving into hats, mats and special gifts. Final prod ucts are shipped to Rarotonga for the tourist trade or exported to key over seas markets. ROOT CROP EXPORTS – Aitutaki has developed its export program with taro and tapioca being shipped to Auckland-New Zealand for sale to Aitutaki nationals. Demand for the product remains stable with supply meeting current demand. COFFEE – Atiu Island produces and markets approximately 5.5 tons of coffee per annum of which approximately 85% of product is sold domes tically and 15% through export channels. The industry is estimated to be worth some NZ$250,000-NZ$300,000. 2.18.1. Future Prospects for the Outer Islands CORAL AND CLAM AQUACULTURE – a new project involving aquaculture farming of live coral and clam for a growing aquarium trade is soon to kick off on selected islands in the northern and southern groups. All prod ucts will be exported to key markets overseas. AQUARIUM FISH – harvesting selected species of small fish for the grow ing aquarium trade will soon be started in the outer islands. A sustainable harvesting program has been agreed to with the Ministry of Marine Resources. BECHE DE MER – a project financed and to be operated by the private sec tor is under discussion. The project proposes to set-up a harvesting pro gram and processing factory on an outer island. All products will be exported to the USA and Asia. TUNA FISHERIES – a joint venture specialising in tuna fisheries is set to commence business in November 1999. The venture will specialise in fish product (fresh-chilled, frozen loins, and other product lines) for export to Hawaii, USA and Europe. 2.19. ENERGY The Cook Islands is heavily dependent on imported petroleum products. Only a small percentage of the country’s requirements is met from local resources, mainly biomass for cooking and few solar photovoltaic instal lations mainly in the remote atolls. The country imports three main ground products diesel, mogas and kerosene. Diesel is mainly consumed in the electricity industry while mogas has been used mainly in the road transport sector. Kerosene is for home consumption. The Cook Islands relies heavily on diesel powered generators for the production of electricity since other sources are limited or not available. The Government is committed to the provision of electricity to every home in the Cook Islands. Today about 98% of the homes in the Cook Islands have electricity. Since the 1970’s, the demand for energy in the Cook Islands which as increased substantially each year has continued to be met mostly from imported petroleum products. This reflects the growth of the commercial sector, most notably in the transport and tourism industry, and the chang ing way of life of the Cook Island households. The indigenous energy potential of the Cook Islands includes solar, biomass, wind and ocean based energy sources, all currently underutilized. The island of Pukapuka in the northern group has photovoltaic system which provides 95 percent of the island power needs. This includes street lighting and household requirements. 2.20. WATER RESOURCES The main source of water for the Cook Islands is from streams, roof catchment systems, bore holes and community water tanks, Rarotonga water is captured in the high mountain streams and is gravi ty-fed into the main distribution network. Groundwater resources have been identified on Rarotonga but current use is limited although potentially important in the future. Greater num bers of water users on Rarotonga have placed pressure on the water sys tem and in periods of drought some villages have experienced either fre quent water shortages or no water. This further justifies the need to tap ground water for emergency use. Demand Daily water demand on Rarotonga is currently 10,645m3, which includes a 30 percent leakage or abuse. The watershed catchments can produce 64,000m3 per day. The water used for consumption is currently untreated – with no added chemicals such as chlorine or fluoride. Water is filtered through the use of fine aggregate and woven filter cloth (primary treatment), and a small percentage of households have installed water filters at the entry to the household. Water use can be broken down into four main categories10: Domestic users 3,625m3 per day Agricultural use 3,692m3 per day Commercial users 1,118m3 per day Tourism 2,210m3 per day Lack of qualified staff in the Northern Group has meant less data is available to quantify water resources in this region. . Water comes from COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 17 Solar energy use in Pukapuka 10 Assumptions based on the 1996 Cook Islands Population Census rain-fed roof catchments, community tank storage and private household storage as well as freshwater lens. Salt-water inundation into the fresh water lens as a result of sea level rise is a major threat to northern group islands water supply. 2.21. TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE BIODIVERSITY The Cook Islands has a relatively limited biodiversity, being well to the east in the general decline of biodiversity as one moves eastward across the Pacific. Flowering plant biodiversity is also limited, with about 180 indigenous on Rarotonga. In addition to the eastward reduction in biodiversity, the biodiversity declines with decreasing habitat complexity. For example Rarotonga has 180 indigenous flowering plants, the makatea islands have 90 to 100 indigenes, Aitutaki has 40, and the northern atolls vary from 25 in Pukapuka to 18 on Manihiki. All the islands in the Cook Islands have a coastal community, which has been heavily disturbed by construction and introduced plants since the arrival of the Europeans in the 1820’s. Sometimes within the coralline coastal community there are swamplants, which with mulching are use ful to grow taro or puraka. This is the limit of the communities found on the atolls and coral islands. Despite the depauperate flora, the plants of the Cook Islands are widely used by the people. The Natural Heritage Project has documented over 1007 flowering plants of which 163 are used for food, 73 for medicines, 52 have some use in agriculture or horticulture, 20 provide timber, 406 are ornamental (leaves or flowers). The Cook Islands has 20 indigenous resident seabirds and 13 indige nous resident landbirds, six Alaskan shorebirds regularly spend the south ern winter in the Cook Islands. Two of the uninhabited islands, Takutea in the Southern Group and Suwarrow in the Northern Group, play an important part as bird sanctuaries, both supporting species not found else where in the Cook Islands. 2.21.1. Marine The marine environment can be conveniently divided into the reef sys tem including lagoons, reef flats and outer reef-slope, and the open ocean or pelagic system. Twenty-four coral genera and 58 species have been identified in the Cook Islands mainly on Aitutaki and Rarotonga. Four genera reach their latitudinal limit and do not occur further south. Coral reef resources and lagoons provide a very important food source for Cook islanders particularly in the northern group and also on islands of the southern group. Table 2.4: List of Endemic Species Rare and Significant Species ● Rarotonga Fly Catcher ● Starling ● Fruit Dove ● Pacific Fruit Bat ● Mangaia Kingfisher ● Cook Islands Reed Warbler ● Pacific Fruit Bat ● Atiu Swiftlet ● Prichardia Palm ● Mitiaro Fern ● Blue Lorikeet ● Mitiaro Sandalwood ● Green Turtle ● Hawkesbill Turtle ● Coconut Crab COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 18 19 CChhaapptteerr 33 NNAATTIIOONNAALL IINNVVEENNTTOORRYY OOFF GGRREEEENNHHOOUUSSEE GGAASSEESS 3.1. INTRODUCTION The Cook Islands signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 12 June 1992 and ratified it on April 20 1993. In accordance with Article 4.1 (a) of UNFCCC, all parties to the convention are requested to update and report periodically on their national inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of green house gases. Funds from the GEF Climate Change Enabling Activity through the Pacific islands Climate Change Assistance Programme (PIC CAP) were received to undertake the National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory in 1998. This is the first greenhouse inventory undertaken for the Cook Islands and it is anticipated that this report will set a foundation and baseline for greenhouse gas emissions in the Cook Islands which is of global concern and requires urgent attention generally. Greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sinks have been calculated for the year 1994 to ensure that the emission inventory is consistent and comparable across sectors and between Parties. 3.2. GREENHOUSE GASES Cook Islands is not a primary producer of fuel but it is heavily depen dent on imported fossil fuel to meet its growing energy requirements. Thus the main source of fuel combustion in the country is from secondary fuels and these are used mainly in transport and electricity generation. These two sources of GHG emissions dominate the activity data as described in the following sections. The focus of the GHG inventory for the Cook Islands is: ● Carbon Dioxide (CO2) ● Methane (CH4) ● Nitrous oxide (N2O) COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES 20 NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES Greenhouse Gas Source and Sink Categories CO2 CH4 N2O Emissions Removals Total (Net) National Emission (Gigagram per year) 32.564 0.504 0.1198 1. All Energy 32.564 Nil X X Fuel Combustion Energy and Transformation Industries 16.339 Nil x Industry Transport 16.052 Nil Commercial-Institutional X Residential 00.233 Nil Other X X Biomass Burned for Energy X Fugitive Fuel Emission Oil and Natural Gas Systems X Coal Mining X 2. Industrial Processes X x 3. Agriculture 0.4916 x Enteric Fermentation Nil 0.4916 Rice Cultivation X Savanna Burning X Others X x 4. Land Use Change and Forestry 154.438 Changes in Forest and other woody biomass stock 154.438 Forest and Grassland Conversion X Abandonment of Managed Lands X 5. Other Sources as appropriate and to the extent possible Waste Nil 0.0128 0.1198 Solid Nil 0.0128 Liquid Nil 0.1198 Note 1: x - Data to be presented to the extent the Party’s capacities permit (Article 12.1(a)). Note 2: Non-Annex I national communications will include the information in this table, and a description of assumptions and methods used, and the values of emission coefficients, where these differ from IPCC assumptions, methods and values. Note 3: Efforts should be made to report the estimated range of uncertainty, where appropriate. Table 3.1 – Cook Islands Initial National Greenhouse Gas Inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all green house gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol Calculations have been based on source categories of energy, agricul ture, land use change and forestry and waste. However, the sources from each category were not fully applied because of either apparent lack of data or insufficient data available at the time of the inventory work. 3.3. METHODOLOGY AND DATA The emissions estimated and presented in this statement were calculat ed according to the 1996 IPCC Revised Guidelines for National Inventory of Greenhouse Gases, to ensure that the emission inventory is consistent and comparable across sectors and between Parties. The IPCC guidelines have been followed and all default values provid ed have been used. It is noted however that this approach has been mod ified to account for the fact that the IPCC Guidelines does not fully cap ture issues of scale for small island developing states and the unique char acteristics of the Cook Islands. A top-down or a reference approach has been used for the preparation of this national inventory of greenhouse gases. 3.3.1. Sources of data The data used to complete the Cook Islands Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the base year 1994 were obtained as provided in Table 3.2 below. Data for a particular item were obtained from two or more sources. Verification of statistical data with users was an important aspect of validating data collected. Discussions were held among con cerned parties including the PICCAP Country Team as well as a workshop, which involved the major sectors to ensure the most reliable information, was obtained. 3.4. ORGANISATION The National Inventory has been organized into four parts which corre sponds to the four major source categories as described in the IPPC 1996 Guidelines. No emission estimates were made from industrial processes and solvents due to lack of activity data and that no methodology now exists for solvents and other product use. ● Energy Power generation Transport ● Memo items International bunkers ● Agriculture Enteric fermentation Manure management ● Land Use Change and Forestry Managed Forests ● Waste Solid Waste on land Liquid Waste Uncertainty and limitations of emission estimates The uncertainties and limitations, as per IPCC guidelines are reflected throughout this chapter. 3.5. EMISSIONS Carbon dioxide emissions for the Cook Islands were mainly from liquid fossil fuels and petroleum. Total imports of fuels for 1994 was 29.59676 kilo tonnes. Table 3.3 illustrates CO2 emissions from each of the major fuel types within the major sectors. Table 3.3: Sectoral CO2 (Gg) Emissions based on Fuel Types The total amount of GHG emissions for the energy sector was: ● 32.564 Gg from CO2 representing 98 percent of total GHG emissions Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel represent 99.9% of total GHG emissions. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES 21 Source of Data Type of Data Collected Ministry of Finance and Economic Management, Statistics Division Statistical data and Imports Ministry of Marine Resources and Fisheries Total fish caught for local consumption Petroleum Companies, Mobil, Triad, Juhi Confirm petroleum imports Ministry of Works Energy and Physical Planning, Energy division Outer Islands power generation Tu’anga Taporoporo, Enviroment services Solid Waste estimates Shipping Company, Taio Shipping Local shipping fuel consumption Ministry of Agriculture Land use, forestry, livestock Te Aponga Uira O Tumutevarovaro Rarotonga power generation Fuel Type Kilo tonnes Power Generation Transport Domestic Totals Gasoline 3.20608 9.81789 9.81789 Jet Kerosene 10.38881 1.95650 1.95650 Other Kerosene 0.06011 0.15510 0.15510 Gas/Diesel Oil 6.73579 16.07572 4.08326 20.15898 Residual Fuel Oil 0.04688 0.10802 0.10802 LPG 0.01816 0.01744 0.01744 Bitumen 0.00026 0.00037 0.00037 Lubricants 0.14067 0.09500 0.19433 0.06085 0.35018 TOTAL 20.59676 16.27874 16.05235 0.23339 32.56448 Table 3.2 Sources of Data1 1 Compiled by Tom Wichman and Kori Raumea 2 Numbers rounded to five decimal points 3.5.1. Power Generation The Cook Islands relies heavily on diesel powered generators for the production of electricity since other sources are limited or not available. The resulting emission from this activity totalled ● 16.278 Gg of CO2 representing 50 percent of total CO2 emissions. Table 3.4 illustrates energy consumption in the Cook Islands. Since the 1970’s, the demand for energy in the Cook Islands has continued to be met mostly from imported petroleum products which has increased sub stantially each year. This reflects the growth of the commercial sector, most notably in the transport and tourism industry, and the changing way of life of the Cook Island households. Other islands including Palmerston, Suwarrow and Nassau refers to unaccounted petroleum consumption for outer islands where records are poorly maintained. Only two islands receive 24-hour electricity service – Aitutaki and Rarotonga. The islands of Pukapuka, Suwarrow and Nassau do not have centrally operated national grid power diesel-generated for the island. Carbon dioxide emissions as well as noise are major problems with diesel generated power systems on the islands. In addition petroleum spills are evident on the coastal areas where diesel is stored prior to deliv ery of fuel to the generator site. Appropriate disposal sites and manage ment of waste oil is of significant concern to communities on the Outer Islands. 3.5.2. Transport Road transport is a major activity in the Cook Islands. Type of trans port activity for 1994 is illustrated in Table 3.5 below: Table 3.5: Total Transport Types (1994) Types of Transport Total Number Motor Bikes 529 Motor Vehicles 108 Trucks 54 Vans/Pickups 119 Other Vehicles 10 Total 820 Source: Cook Islands Savings Bank (CISB) Rarotonga Table 3.5 above highlights the number of vehicles that are officially reg istered however the emission is calculated on the total gasoline con sumed. This suggests that there are a large number of unregistered vehi cles. Table 3.6: Carbon Dioxide emissions (Gg) for Transport Sector Domestic Aviation Kilo tonnes Gg CO2 Gasoline 0.00599 0.01825 Jet Kerosene 1.05030 3.28190 Road Transport Gasoline 3.20600 9.75560 Gas/Diesel Oil 0.98680 2.99660 Total 5.24909 16.05235 COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES 22 Island kwh/ltr Energy Generated kwh’000 Total Fuel Consumption 1994 3 Gg C02 Litres Kilo tonnes Rarotonga 3.8 3628 95467 3.71 11.75600 Aitutaki 2.7 1512 56000 0.48 1.48876 Mitiaro 1.9 79 41374 0.03 0.05901 Mangaia 2.5 334 13361 0.11 0.31319 Atiu 2.5 238 95319 0.08 0.21787 Mauke 2.0 196 97879 0.08 0.21787 Penrhyn 2.0 90 44962 0.03 0.05901 Rakahanga 2.0 33 16559 0.01 0.01967 Manihiki 2.5 78 31172 0.02 0.03934 Other islands 2.10802 TOTAL 6188 492093 4.55 16.27874 Table 3.4: Energy Consumption in the Cook Islands 3 Cook Islands Quarterly Statistical Bulletin December Quarter 1998 Table 3.6 identifies the fuel consumption in the transport sector as 5.249 kilo tonnes of petroleum fuel in 1994. This produced: ● 16.05235 Gg of CO2 representing 50 percent of total C02 emissions from domestic aviation and road transport. 3.5.3. Domestic Domestic consumption of petroleum is very small for the Cook Islands. ● It represents only 0.07 kilo tonnes of fuel which produced 0.17254 CO2 (Gg) of emissions. The major fuel use for domestic consumers is from kerosene and LPG. 3.6. MEMO ITEMS 3.6.1. International bunkers International bunkering accounted for 30.72Gg of CO2 emission in 1994 from international marine and international aviation bunkers as illustrated in Table 3.7 Table 3.7 International Bunkering Consumption (kilo tonnes) Gg C02 International Marine Gas/Diesel Oil 0.37951 1.1937 International Aviation Jet Gas/Diesel 9.75440 30.7261 Total 10.13391 31.9198 International bunkering has been calculated but has not been included in the national totals and is reported for informational purposes only. It indi cates that international bunkering of petroleum products for marine and aviation contributes to as much carbon dioxide emissions as the total energy sector. 3.7. AGRICULTURE Although agriculture has been on the decline it remains a key element of the Government economic growth strategy working hand in hand with the growth of the tourism industry. Agriculture is seen as providing the essential fresh supplies to hotel and restaurant owners thus retaining tourist expenditure in the country. Subsistence agriculture is fostered so that it will continue to contribute to improved diets and health of the pop ulation generally. The Cook Islands main methane emission comes from agriculture. It is concerned only with enteric fermentation and manure management. This is from animal waste and decaying plant materials. Livestock mainly pigs and poultry are raised by the majority of house holds in the Cook Islands. for both home use and sale. It is estimated that the total pig population exceeds 20,000, around 90 percent of which are on Rarotonga and the other Southern Group islands. Commercial pig production is small and meets most of the domestic protein needs of Cook Islanders. The 1996 Population Census identifies 19 commercial pig geries having more than 50 pigs which is the largest producer of methane emissions. The Cook Islands has low levels of methane compared to other Pacific Island countries due to limited land mass for agricultural purposes, and small numbers of animals. Methane emission is summarized in Table 3.8 below: Table 3.8: Methane Emissions from Livestock Methane emissions from domestic livestock through enteric fermenta tion and manure management is 0.4914Gg which represents .015 percent of total GHG emissions. 3.7.1. Land Use Change and Forestry A wide variety of carbon and nitrogen trace gases are either emitted or absorbed in the biosphere. Any changes in the biosphere, through land use changes and forestry activities will modify the natural balance of these trace gases both in emission and uptake. On the global scale the human activity which most affects the biosphere is deforestation in trop ical regions. In this sector the calculation of emission for the Cook Islands focused only on managed forests. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES 23 Livestock Type Population Enteric Manure CH4 (000’s) Fermentation Management Emission Non Dairy Cattle 0.3550 18.815 002.485 0.0213 Goats 5.6990 28.495 001.253 0.0297 Horses 0.1980 03.564 000.431 0.0039 Swine 20.745 20.745 414.900 0.4356 Poultry 40.045 - 0.92100 0.0009 Total 71.619 419.990 0.4914 3.7.2. Managed Forests The main source of nitrous oxide is from agriculture sector from the burning rather than decaying of agricultural materials. Again, the Cook Island levels of emission for this gas are very low compared to other Pacific Island countries due to the small-scale forests in the Cook Islands. The Cook Islands has small land areas in forest and therefore there is no major deforestation except owing to dry spells and forest areas become fire hazards. Mangaia island of the southern group during 1996 lost a large area of forest through accidental burning during a hot dry spell. A managed forest program for the Cook Islands commenced in 1987 with the primary objective of minimizing soil erosion mainly on the Southern Group islands of Atiu, Mangaia and Rarotonga. The plantation forest today covers 11000 (2700 acres). Approximately 95% of these are planted in Pinus caribaea. As well as soil protection forests are critical components of the climate system. There is potential for sequestering greenhouse gases and they act as an additional reservoir for CO2. In the national inventory assessment survey for Cook Islands the CO2 uptake from changes in forests and other woody biomass stocks was ana lyzed and the results are presented in the Table 3.9 below. Table 3.9 Carbon Uptake by Forests ● Total Carbon Uptake Increment 42.1194 ● The Annual biomass carbon removal is 154.4382 3.8. WASTE Methane is one of the principal sources of greenhouse gases contribut ing to global warming. Methane emissions originate from several sources including anaerobic decomposition of organic wastes in solid waste dis posal sites, in sludge and residual solid by products. In this sector, methane emission is calculated from solid waste disposal sites and liquid waste generated. 3.8.1. Solid Waste Solid waste in the Cook Islands is managed through informal waste minimisation practises. This includes diversion of food waste as animal feed, burning of paper and green waste and disposal of residual in ground pits. Rarotonga is the only island in the Cook Islands that has a centrally managed landfill for solid waste. All outer island communities and households are forced to dispose waste in vacant land areas or private pits. The consequences of this are serious. Exposed wastes present immediate public health risk, degradation to the surrounding environment and increased uncontrolled methane emissions. Total emissions from municipal solid waste is calculated on total munic ipal waste generated being ● 3.666 Gg producing 0.012804 Gg of methane. 3.8.2. Methane Methane emissions produced from ● Domestic livestock enteric fermentation and manure management 0.4916 ● Plus Solid Waste 0.0128 ● Total CH4 (Gg) emissions 0.5044 3.8.3. Liquid Waste Sewerage waste for most of the islands is by septic tanks and cesspits. Most are poorly built, or are not well maintained. A private company col lects septage sludge and is dumped on orchards and open ground. There is no septage treatment facilities on any of the islands except for one small treatment and public sewer system on the island of Rarotonga in the vil lage of Nikao. Established in this area are a large number of Government houses. This system has not been operated successfully due to poor maintenance and lack of funds. Nutrient and organic loading from liquid waste presents a sig nificant problem to all coastal regions where the inner reef lagoon is well-developed and extensive. This includes the island of Rarotonga where the coastal areas are densely popu lated with tourist resorts but also on the northern group islands of Manihiki where pearl farming requires unpolluted lagoons. Poor man agement of liquid waste means that these lagoons offer the ideal environ ment for unwanted microbiological activity. Liquid waste produces nitrous oxide emissions from humans and ani mals. This is calculated as follows: Indirect nitrous oxide emission from human sewage using a population base of 19,303 produces ● total annual N20 emissions (Gg) of 0.11834. Nitrous oxide from animal production emissions from animal waste man agement systems is only ● total annual emissions of N20 (Gg) of 0.001479. Total N20 emissions for the Cook Islands is 0.1198 represents less than one percent of total GHG emissions. 3.9. CONCLUSION Although a reduction of our emissions will not be noticeable to the aver age person, noticeable savings could be made on the importation of fos sil fuels by government if the decision is made to encourage renewable energy programmes and improve the efficiency of all diesel generators. These savings could be used for education and health.. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES 24 Forests Area (kha) Annual Annual Biomass Carbon Fraction of Total Carbon Growth Increment Dry Matter Uptake Increment Acacia 0.699 15 10.4850 0.5 5.2425 Eucalyptus spp 0.00585 14.5 0.0848 0.5 0.0424 Tectona grandis 0.00585 8 0.04680 0.5 0.0234 Pinus spp 0.03495 11.5 0.04019 0.5 0.2009 Pinus caribaea 1.13 10 11.3000 0.5 5.6500 Mixed Hardwoods 4.66 6.8 31.6880 0.5 15.844 Mixed Softwoods 2.085 14.5 30.2325 0.5 15.1162 Total 42.1194 Emission of carbon dioxide represents the largest contributor of GHG emissions for the Cook Islands, which comes mainly from power gener ation. Identified mitigation options for the Cook Islands are identified in Table 3.10. Table 3.10 Mitigation options COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES 25 Sector Weakness Solution Energy Poor or lack of maintenance of diesel generators Replace worn out diesel generators Variable load on diesel generators Controlled loading of generators to no less than 70 percent Prevent importation of incandescent light bulbs Replace with fluorescent bulbs Prevent importation of high energy consuming appliances Import licensing and policy developed Reduce energy use Encourage solar heating and other renewable energy options Transport Poor road maintenance Improve road construction Speeding on roads Enforce maximum speed limits Warrant of Fitness Tests inadequate Implement and improve standards required for Vehicle Warrant of Fitness CChhaapptteerr 44 VVUULLNNEERRAABBIILLIITTYY AANNDD AADDAAPPTTAATTIIOONN 27 4.1. INTRODUCTION The foundation for this chapter is the result of consultation and infor mation provided by all the major sectors1 in the Cook Islands and the Cook Islands PICCAP programme. It represents the current state of knowledge with respect to climate change and sea-level rise, and is the first of its kind for the Cook Islands. It builds on the capac ity building provided through PICCAP for a large number of people from various sectors, and is the beginning of an on-going process of further capacity building and vulnerability work that is currently being undertaken by Cook Islanders. As a small island country, which is not a significant greenhouse gas producer, such work is vital to the future of the Cook Islands given that it will have little option but to adapt to changes in climate change and sea level rise. The vulnerability and adaptation chapter is founded on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) technical guidelines. However, this approach has been modified to account for the unique char acteristics of the Cook Islands as a small Pacific Island country. In the Cook Islands the key sectors, which are likely to be affected by climate change and sea level rise, are: ● Coastal zone and coral reefs ● Agriculture, food security and diet ● Marine resources ● Water resources ● Biodiversity 4.2. CLIMATE AND SEA-LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS The Cook Islands historically has not been subject to extremes of tem perature and rainfall, and interannual variations in sea level. It is uncer tain as to how these local fluctuations will be affected as a consequence of global changes in climate and sea level arising from the enhanced greenhouse effect. It will be important for the Cook Islands to have access to the best currently available information derived from global models that are as locally relevant as possible. The use of such information, as presented below, must be qualified by the high uncertainties particularly in relation to the direction and magnitude of future rainfall changes, and how the sea level for the Cook Islands will change relative to projected global changes. In the absence of more accurate information it is appro priate to use the best information that is currently available as a basis for assessing the sensitivity of different sectors in the Cook Islands as a whole, to climate and sea-level rise. 4.3. TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL SCENARIOS FOR THE COOK ISLANDS At present scenarios of possible future climate and sea levels in the Cook Islands and the Pacific islands’ region are not available. Therefore, scenarios presented below in Table 4.1 are based on the projections devel oped by the IPCC and were the simulated results from two general circu lation models (GCMs). These scenarios have been used to ask “what if” questions about the effects of climate and sea level change and how sen sitive a country is to the changes. Table 4.1 Temperature and Rainfall Scenarios This report considers the IPCC best-guess (middle) and worst (high emissions) case scenarios of projected temperature rise and sea level rise. The table shows the temperature scenarios using two different GCMs, one by HADCM (UK) and CSIRO9M (Australia). While the magnitudes of the various model scenarios differ, it is important to note that they all indicate that there will be an increase in temperature. By the end of the next century the models used here show that temperatures may have increased by between 0.4OC and 2.2OC over those presently experienced. At present many GCMs are not yet able to reliably indicate how rainfall patterns might change in the region as shown by the two GCM results here. One output shows that wetter conditions will prevail (HADCM), while the other indicates that there may be drier conditions in the future. Preliminary work by some climate scientists has indicated the possibility that rainfall might be characterized by high intensity events on the one hand, and prolonged droughts on the other. Other work indicates that such extremes in the Pacific islands regions may also be dominated by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It should also be noted that while the projected temperature increases, especially those from the middle range scenario, do not seem particular ly large, they would be superimposed on what is already a hot climate. From this perspective, any slight increase in temperature becomes signif icant. 4.4. SEA-LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS The only scenarios of sea-level change for the Cook Islands, drawn from the current global projections based on the IPCC Second Assessment Report and are presented in Table 4.2 below, for a best guess and high estimate of greenhouse gas emissions. Both show significant increases in global sea level over the next century. However, one cannot assume that changes in sea level at regional and local levels will neces sarily be the same as the global average change because of the influence of relative sea level associated with vertical land movement, which affects sea level. Dynamic effects resulting from oceanic circulation, density, wind and pressure patterns, and ocean currents also influence sea level at the local and regional level. Table 4.2 Sea level rise scenarios Scenarios 2020 2050 2100 IS92a (best guess) 8cm 20cm 49cm IS92e (high) 16cm 40cm 94cm COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 28 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION GCM pattern 2020 2050 2100 Temp. (C) Rainfall(%) Temp. (C) Rainfall(%) Temp. (C) Rainfall(%) HADCM 0.6 5.1 1.2 10.3 2.2 18.9 CSIRO9M 0.4 -0.1 0.8 -0.1 1.5 -0.2 1 Ministries of Health, Agriculture, Marine Resources, Environment Service, Water Division and Energy Division of Minisrty of Works, Energy and Physical Planning, Meteorological service The table provides a broad indication of what might be expected over the next century, based on the middle and worst emissions scenarios of sea-level change. These sea level projections are consistent with the tem perature projections, i.e., substantial increases in sea-level are likely over the next century. 4.5. VULNERABILITY There are various sectors in the Cook Islands that are already sensitive to climatic factors and sea level variations. These sectors with their select ed exposure units were considered based upon pertinent criteria and infor mation available in relation to their overall significance to the well-being of the people and the economy of the Cook Islands. These sectors are: 4.5.1. Coastal Zone and Coral Reefs The coastal zone provides a wealth of beauty and is an essential element in the development of tourism for the Cook Islands as well as the base for sustaining livelihoods and economic development for Cook Islanders. The coral zone supports abundant fish populations and shellfish, which are very important in the diet of Cook Islanders. It provides protection of the shoreline from erosion, traps sediment for land accretion, and pro vides a breeding ground and habitat for marine species. The sensitivity of the coastal zone to the effects of climate and sea level variations is dependent on coral reefs and saltwater paspalum ecosystems. The shore line of all the islands of the Cook Islands is very dynamic, and thus places high cost infrastructures on such things as tourist accommodation, roads and private dwellings that are concentrated and built along the coastal edges at risk. Widespread concern has been expressed over the state of the coral reef systems and monitoring of these reefs has indicated signs where large areas of reef are damaged and are no longer sustaining life. Coastal erosion is already evident in many areas of the main island Rarotonga. This can be directly linked to a decline in health of the reef system as well as activities such as removal of coastal vegetation, the blasting of reef channels and poorly constructed sea walls. There is some evidence to indicate that other Southern and Northern Group islands are experiencing similar impacts. Many of these problems have arisen because of the lack of an effective environmental impact assessment (EIA) process as well as a fully integrated environmental management programme. Lack of an effective water drainage system is also contributing to ero sion of land from surface water runoff, as was evidenced by the heavy rains experienced in the Southern Group islands mid 1999. In some areas of the coastal plain there are low lying areas behind the beach ridge which are prone to flooding from storm surge. In addition, there are areas of intensive infrastructure development with poor water drainage systems that are prone to flooding during rainstorms. These factors, in combina tion, make coastlines of Rarotonga and other islands increasingly sensi tive to variations in sea level, and to storm events. 4.5.2. Agriculture, Food Security and Diet Agriculture is a key component of the food production system and pro vides a means for commercial and subsistence living in the Cook Islands. Variations in rainfall patterns can have a great effect on the yield and sus tainability of crops grown in the Cook Islands. Commercial agriculture continues to suffer the effects of drought. Rainfall in 1997 was 32% below the 1971 – 97 average. For the first three quarters of 1998, rainfall was 10% below that in the corresponding peri od in 1997. Pawpaw volumes and export sales in 1997 were lower as a result of the reduced rainfall2. Cook Islanders have a relatively high per capita income and therefore the country does not suffer from food insecurity. In addition, almost all Cook Islanders have access to some land and the lagoons and ocean where they have always grown and caught their own subsistence food. Natural calamities, such as drought and cyclones occasionally disrupt food production. A large proportion of the population are farmers but only one percent of the farming households derive all their income from agriculture. Variations in rainfall patterns can have a great effect on the yield and the life of agricultural crops and in particular the main export crops of the Cook Islands, pawpaw and taro. Other important crops that are sensitive to climate and sea-level rise are vegetable crops for local consumption as well as the growing flora industry. Reduction in agricultural land as a result of sea-water intrusion, inunda tion, and flooding and coastal erosion, which can be triggered by sea level variations, already creates major problems to agricultural activities par ticularly in the coastal region and reducing the already limited land avail able in the Northern atolls. 4.5.3. Marine Resources Pearl shell farming is a high priority in the economic development of the Cook Islands with export values expected to double in 19993. Other com mercially important coastal resources such as trochus shell and ornamen tal fish are also important and techniques are needed to identify the extent of their vulnerability to climatic variation. 4.5.4. Water Resources Domestic water is sourced from stream catchment and roof catchment systems, bore holes and community water tanks, and therefore the Cook Islands remains highly dependent on rainfall. This means the Cook Islands are highly vulnerable to changing weather patterns and times of drought. During El Nino periods the Southern Cook Islands often expe rience lower rainfall levels, while higher rainfall is experienced in the northern atolls. During La Nina, however, the North becomes more sus ceptible to dry periods, with rainfall becoming more plentiful in the Southern islands. Periods of heavy rainfall too can cause problems to the water supply. Heavy downpours often cause flooding in the inland streams, which caus es debris to be washed downstream, and disturbs sediment at the bottom of the streams. During such periods of heavy rainfall it is not uncommon COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 29 2 Cook Island Government Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update F98/99 December 1998 3 Cook Island Government Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update F98/99 December 1998 for households to find that their water turns a ‘muddy brown’ colour and incidences of gastric illnesses become more common, as the quality of water is compromised. 4.5.5. Biodiversity Terrestial Storm surge is damaging to ground-nesting seabirds on low islands – especially the Brown Booby, Masked Booby, Red-tailedTropicbird, Blue grey Noddy and the Black-naped Tern. Storm surge also damages coastal plants, some of which are rare, such as the Romanzoff Shrub on a few atolls, and Polapuka on Pukapuka High winds damage inland Rarotonga by spreading wind-dispersed weeds, such as the Balloon Vine and by opening the forest floor to increased sunlight which enables weedy species in general to outgrow native species. High winds can directly damage forests such as happened to the only atoll forest in the Cook Islands, on Pukapuka. Increased summer droughts on Rarotonga have a dramatic effect on stream life as the fresh water fishes need to reach the sea to breed and have no mechanisms to “hibernate” during drought periods. Suwarrow atoll in the Northern Group and Takutea island in the Southern group have two of the most vulnerable bird colonies in the Cook Islands4. No comprehensive study exists to assess the potential impact of climate change on the ecology of bird colonies. Climatic variability including a greater incidence of tropical weather extremes, such as drought and tropical cyclones, could decimate sea bird populations. Marine Increased water temperature means that the ocean will more often exceed the critical 20OC associated with coral bleaching. These events have been more frequent in recent years and are expected to increase. Some corals are more susceptible than others and this will lead to not only a decrease in coral biodiversity but to a changing composition of coral communities. Wave damage will also physically remove corals from the upper section of the outer reef slope. The removal and death of corals leaves more “bare areas”. This can lead to an increase in macro-algae, which in turn can support more ciguat era dinoflagellate. This may result in an increased incidence of fish poi soning. Increased rain over high islands leads to increased volcanic silt being washed onto the reef system which is detrimental to coral growth. This also leads to increased nutrients on the reef system and if this occurs over the summer spawning time it can alter the recruitment rate of organisms. 4.6. EFFECTS Due to the lack of quantitative data, the limited scientific capabilities, and the limited studies or absence of previous literature and information, the understanding of the effects of climate change and sea level change in the islands is limited. Therefore, qualitative statements are made in this report from a very limited resource. 4.6.1. Coastal Zone The potential impact of climate change on coastlines in the Cook Islands is likely to be more dramatic than the consequent sea-level rise. This is because much of the coastline consists of unconsolidated and permeable beach rock, which can be easily eroded either by high-energy storm surge or by lateral erosion caused by heavy rainfall on high islands. Sea level rise will also affect shorelines through inundation. A study5 showed that 17 percent of Rarotonga is below 1.5 meters and if the sea level was to rise by 1.5 meters much of this land area would be inundated. 4.6.2. Coral Reefs Coral reefs in the Cook Islands presently survive near the limits of their temperature tolerance of 25C to 29C. Any increase in sea surface tem perature may result in coral bleaching and loss of coral species, reef habi tat and reef building processes. In the absence of the adverse effects of temperature change, sea level rise may lead to renewed coral growth on the reef flat which is presently exposed at low tide. Local people have already observed a decrease in the vitality of the reef systems and considered that this may be a climate-related effect. While this may indeed be the case, it is likely to be linked to the decline in reef health as a result of over-fishing, uncontrolled pollution and destructive effects of economic development and some fishing methods. As loss of reef vitality decreases the ability of the reef system to cope with other environmental stresses, such as ongoing exploitation, destructive prac tices will worsen any adverse effects of climate change. 4.6.3. Coastal Erosion and Flooding The coastline in the Cook Islands has become increasingly prone to ero sion through damage to the reef flat, stream mouths and coral species, COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 30 Brown Booby (Sua Leucogaster) 4 McCormack and Kunzle 1990 5 Implications of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise for the Cook Islands, Graham Sem and Yvonne Underhill, 1991 removal of coastal vegetation and intensive development of infrastructure and housing. Given this situation, any relative increase in sea level in the Cook Islands will result in a worsening of the erosion problems. Increased sea level rise, even with no change in storm frequency, would increase the potential for wave overtopping and flooding of the low lying areas of the coastal plain. Additionally, a scenario of increased rainfall, particularly if it resulted in more intense or more frequent rainfall events, will add to the erosion and flooding problems related to surface runoff. Further development and continuation of existing trends in the coastal zone could accelerate the problems of erosion associated with sea level rise, lead to loss of land area and place an increasing amount of infra structure and people at risk. 4.6.4. Agriculture Cook Islands agriculture, by its nature, is relatively vulnerable to changes in normal weather situations, wet or dry seasons including unusual weather patterns over time as a result of global warming. Effects of climate change that will impact directly on agriculture include: ● Low-lying Northern group atolls as a result of sea level rise will experience coastal erosion, sea spray and salt-water inundation into the underground freshwater lens, impeding crop growth. This will fur ther reduce the amount of land available on these small islands for agri cultural production. Cyclones and dry periods will have major impact on these islands as they cannot shelter from wind and wave surge as experienced by cyclone Martin in 1997 and long dry periods will reduce water supplies to critical levels. Lack of rain will further reduce any agricultural production. ● Higher volcanic Southern islands as a result of sea level rise will experience salt-water inundation in groundwater freshwater lens and the infrastructure surrounding the coastal areas of the islands will be at risk. Excessive rainfall will cause soil erosion and reduce the amount of productive agricultural land. This will reduce any exports and will further require the importation of fresh vegetables to meet the demands of the tourist industry. General warming of the climate may contribute to the emergence of new pests and diseases not previously found in the country. Prolonged drought periods as well as reducing productivity will raise the likelihood of fires as experienced by Mangaia in 1995. This destroyed protective vegetation and agricultural crops thus increasing the incidence of soil ero sion which, in turn, reduced land productivity. 4.6.5. Marine resources The marine resources sector is one of the nation’s major exploitable nat ural resources. Cook Islanders have relied on the sea as a major source of food. The Ministry of Marine Resources perceives marine life such as fish, crustacea and molluscs to be threatened by the long-term effects of climate change, its impact on ocean circulation and sea level rise. As sea surface temperatures already frequently exceed the temperature tolerance level of coral species (25C – 29C), it is likely that any significant increase in sea surface temperature in the future will result in more frequent and severe episodes of coral bleaching. It is also expected that should average sea surface temperatures contin ue to change in the future, further changes in the concentration and avail ability of fish stocks will likewise occur. Reduced stocks of some species are a real possibility, with the obvious consequences for Cook Islanders who rely on marine resources for their livelihood. The recent ENSO event saw a major shift in offshore fish distribution patterns as tuna fish stocks migrated according to oceanographic surface temperature and salinity fronts. Further global warming and circulation of the ocean would have a major affect on the distribution of the tuna fishery resource of the Cook Islands 200-mile EEZ. The pearl culture industry is the second most important economic sec tor and is dependent on good environmental conditions. Elevated water temperature conditions are conducive for disease outbreak as well as causing oyster recruitment to exceed lagoon carrying capacity. Cyclone Martin in 1997 caused damage to 95 percent of farmers’ land based infra structure and to 15 percent of the cultured pearl shell. Aquarium fish, a new industry in the Cook Islands, and trochus, are susceptible to direct destruction from cyclone events. 4.6.6. Human Health The scenario of continued environmental and social degradation, com bined with the climate change would lead to a continuation and possible worsening of the existing health problems in the Cook Islands. In partic ular those conditions related to scarce water resources, overcrowding and poor environmental sanitation and hygiene would be likely to increase. In addition marine resources which have always been vital to the health and wellbeing of the people of Cook Islands may become increasingly less productive both as a direct and indirect consequence of climate and sea level change. Climatic conditions influence the life cycles of some insects such as mosquitoes. Wet conditions are ideal for rapid multiplication of the mos quito population, hence its longevity. This further contributes to the mul tiplication of parasite carrier mosquitoes as well as mosquito biting rates. Thus overall, temperature variations strongly influence epidemic poten tial. Extreme events such as cyclones and flooding have several direct effects on public health including loss of life, injury and outbreaks of water borne diseases. Conversely, deterioration in water quality and quantity as a result of dry conditions in the future may result in an increase in diarrheal diseases. Anecdotal evidence has shown increases in water borne diseases or ail ments in periods of wet weather and increases in vector borne diseases in dry periods. It seems likely that climate change would have a negative, if hard to measure, effect on the health of Cook Islanders. Direct health impacts are likely to include an increase in heat stress and in respiratory, allergic COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 31 and communicable diseases. High temperatures are likely to place addi tional stress on the population and may increase mortality rates. Vector borne diseases, like dengue spread by mosquito (Aedes Aegypti) are more likely to spread in high temperatures coinciding with heavy rain falls. Indirect health effects would result from droughts, floods and social and economic disruption. These would place a burden on Government to deliver improved health and sanitation services. Flooding would result in poorer water quality leading to increase in diahorreal incidence as well as growing malnutrition as a result of home grown food shortages. Low income families, children, and the elderly would be most at risk from the negative effects of climate change. 4.6.7. Water Supply and Quality Changes in climate have been known to affect both water quantity and quality particularly in areas prone to weather variations. Extreme weath er conditions have different impacts. Very dry conditions of 1982/83 led to water rationing and the country’s green vegetation clearly showing brown colour due to critical water stress. Likewise, heavy downpours have led to flooding of low-lying areas. In either case, water quality is affected; the water reticulation system tends to carry mud and debris under both conditions. Thus, significant falls in average rainfall or increase in drought fre quency or length would adversely affect water supply and quality. Likewise, a heavy downpour will affect water supply, with blockages occurring and quality diminished. Sea level rise will also impact on fresh water resource in terms of salt water inundation into the fresh water lenses of the low-lying atoll islands limiting land for agriculture. 4.6.8. Biodiversity The major threats to biodiversity for the Cook Islands are habitat changes, degradation and loss. Although no intensive studies have been done for the Cook Islands on this issue, informal reports from various non-government organisations, especially women’s groups, have expressed concern over the decline of certain natural resources required for subsistence and handicraft production. An example of this is the ‘pupu’ shell which women collect to sell, and are becoming difficult to find. It has been suggested that this may be due to habitat change caused by either fresh or salt-water inundation or long periods of drought, as experienced in Mangaia recently. Any change in temperature may result in the change of species’ com position as well as the functioning of ecosystems will change in response to changing climatic conditions. Increasingly, climate change has begun to shape the nature of the islands’ biodiversity, especially though episodic events such as cyclones, for example cyclone Martin in Manihiki, which destroyed much of the flora on the low lying atoll in 1998. 4.7. ADAPTATION MEASURES For the Cook Islands to respond successfully and implement appropri ate adaptation strategies each major sector has identified information gaps and capacity building requirements that must be addressed. 4.7.1. Marine Resources Information Gaps ● Knowledge of circulation processes within lagoons and the influence of climate. This would assist in understanding oceanographic processes relevant to: ● Pearl and mariculture production ● Shallowing lagoons ● Lagoon flushing ● Lagoon temperature change ● Knowledge of the interactions between marine flora and fauna (includ ing coral), and the effects of external influences on these species and their interactions. These effects could include local species extinctions, changes in species dominance, species resilience (tolerance) to distur bance, species introductions and species substitutions. ● Increase knowledge of pelagic fisheries migration and recruitment patterns in our EEZ. ● Develop gene bank of marine flora/fauna. ● Model low diversity marine ecosystems. ● Understanding of ecosystem rejuvenation after implementation of traditional conservation management practices e.g. Ra’ui. ● Identify specific integrated effects affecting marine resources – e.g. coastal sedimentation from rainfall runoff through Avatiu Harbour. Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Increase physical oceanography expertise regionally. ● Deal with issues at the ecosystem level rather than single species. ● Increased environmental ocean modeling of tuna and other pelagic stocks. ● Training and equipment required ● Increase biological species database 4.7.2. Coastal Zone Information Gaps ● Knowledge of the change in beach profiles and the causal factors ● Understanding of the effects of coastal developments and structures ● The effect of sea level rise on the coastal foreshore – natural and developed ● Measures to develop and enforce legislation relating to the coastal zone ● Methods of development and implementation of integrated manage ment plans ● Understanding coastal protection options Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Training and equipment required for surveying, coastal and engi neering ● Education and awareness ● Legislation and policy ● Integrated management plans COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 32 4.7.3. Agriculture, Food Security and Diet Information Gaps ● Understanding of areas most vulnerable to changes in weather pat terns ● Understanding causal factors leading to insect and disease out breaks ● Identification of most suitable plants, crops, varieties and cultivars to climate change ● Additional methods of quarantine to reduce further pests and dis eases introduction ● Measures to understand land zoning and building policies ● Gene bank of plants ● Lack of up-to-date information on plant/crop, livestock, and forest production figures Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Develop geographical information system (GIS) ● Update information on agricultural land use through application of GIS ● Continuous monitoring of insect and disease incidences and sever ity. ● Gather information from other countries and organisations on per formance of plant cultivars/varieties under certain climatic condi tions ● Education and awareness ● Gene bank development 4.7.4. Water Resources Information Gaps ● Identification of leakages ● Water quality and chemical analysis monitoring ● Methods and measures to improve water distribution at all times ● Water consumption data ● Pipeline network data ● Lack of co-ordination between development and water distribution ● Methods to improve water storage and conservation Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Education and awareness ● Training and equipment ● Geographical information systems development ● Legislation ● Metering and tariffs ● Groundwater management ● Mechanism for water development ● Improvement in water quality 4.7.5. Human Health Information Gaps ● Unavailability of up-to-date information on the pattern of lifestyle disease, vector borne disease and water borne disease in relation to climate change. ● Limitation of resources to monitor the high density of mosquitoes and possible outbreaks of dengue fever. ● Limited access to modern technology (internet) to enhance skills and knowledge on global impacts of climate change on human health ● Measures to develop and enforce legislation ● Methods of development and implementation of integrated pest management Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Regular access to workshops, conferences, meetings and internet services ● Education and awareness ● Training and equipment ● Integrated pest management systems ● Legislation 4.7.6. Biodiversity Information Gaps ● Increase knowledge of bird, flora and fauna habitats ● Strengthen links between science and policy development/formula tion ● Develop gene bank of marine flora/fauna. ● Understanding of ecosystem rejuvenation after implementation of traditional conservation management practices ● Identify specific integrated effects affecting birds, flora and fauna ● Increase knowledge of bird, flora and fauna and the effects of exter nal influences on these species and their interactions. ● Continue to develop database of traditional and indigenous uses related to biodiversity Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Education and awareness ● Gene Bank ● Training – biodiversity data collection and analysis ● Increase biological species database ● Methods for ex-situ collections COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 33 CChhaapptteerr 55 CCRROOSSSS SSEECCTTOORRAALL MMEEAASSUURREESS 35 5.1. INTRODUCTION A number of measures will be undertaken by the Cook Islands, which will have cross cutting implications for all or some of the sectors dis cussed earlier. These measures will help and support the mitigation and adaptation measures that have already been identified. Cross-sectoral measures refer to the types of support measures or mecha nisms that could be applied nationally. These measures can be developed as individual programmes and will include: ● Policy Measures ● Research Programmes ● Education and Awareness Programmes Information gaps have been identified as well as capacity building needs to enable full and appropriate implementation. 5.2. POLICY MEASURES This National Communication is particularly timely, as the Cook Islands is developing a blueprint for its future. The November 1997 National Retreat1 defined the national vision for the Cook Islands as: “Te oraanga tu rangatira, kia tau ki te anoano o te iti tangata, e kia tau ki ta tatou peu maori, e te aotini taporoporoia o te basileia. “To enjoy the highest quality of life consistent with the aspirations of our people, and in harmony with our culture and environment.” Government has recently reaffirmed this vision and remains committed to fulfilling it2. However the Government recognizes that more work needs to be done to translate the national vision into a set of goals and strategies that are achievable within the resources available, and which will provide a fair and equitable outcome for all. The work undertaken to produce the national communication and the on going work that will arise from it will enhance these goals and strategies as well as improve the process and decisions made regarding the envi ronmental and cultural sustainability of the Cook Islands. 5.2.1. National Goals3 Government believes that not all the aspirations can or should be met by Government. Some aspirations are more appropriately the responsibility of the private sector. In some instances people need to take increasing personal responsibility for their own lives. Since the start of the economic reform programme (ERP) in 1996 the Government has been committed to creating a smaller more efficient pub lic service. The community’s aspirations can be grouped into seven areas. These are: Health Government places increasing emphasis on preventative health care with the corresponding increasing personal responsibility for curative health care. Emphasis is on prevention rather than cure. Education A larger proportion of government resources will be focused on education up to lower secondary level with increasing personal responsibility for higher levels of education. Justice and Equity The government aims to ensure a proper balance of responsibility between community, family, individual and the government. Participation Government sees its role as one of facilitator. The provision of opportu nities for participation is largely the responsibility of the private sector, churches and NGO’s. Culture and the Environment Government sees its role as one of advocate and to some extent funder but also sees the community and the private sector having a large role to play. Sustainable economic growth The private sector of the Cook Islands is seen to be the “engine” of eco nomic growth. Government’s role is to provide a good environment for investment in order to facilitate private sector development. Good governance and effective government Government is committed to minimising the size of government while “getting more for less”. 5.2.2. Future Outlook The outlook for the Cook Islands is positive with trends in productive sec tors expected to improve over the next five years with tourism promising greater increases. The economy is aiming towards growth where the pop ulation will enjoy a better standard of living. Incorporation and mainstreaming of climate change and sea level rise issues into government policy is ongoing and will take time to fully achieve integration. 5.2.3. Additional measures for government consideration ● Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions ● Training in appropriate statistical data collection ● Land use options ● Waste management systems ● Appropriate technology transfer ● Appropriate manufacturing options ● Renewable energy options ● Environmental education and awareness ● Effective implementation of an environmental legal framework and traditional practices ● Development of a comprehensive integrated coastal zone manage ment plan COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E CROSS SECTORAL MEASURES 36 CROSS SECTORAL MEASURES 1 Meeting of representatives of all sectors of the community (Government, non Government, business sector, community and traditional leaders) 2 Cook Islands Government Budget Policy Statement 1999/2000 3 Cook Islands Government Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update F98/99, December 1998 Figure 5.1: Integrated Comprehensive Approach Adaptation and mitigation strategies for the Cook Islands will be based on an integrated and comprehensive approach, which encompasses the health and well being of the nation. Local communities should be involved at all stages of the development of adaptation programs. The lead sector should be coastal and marine areas and an adaptation plan, to be part of a climate change action plan, should be drafted, implemented, monitored and regularly updated. Current economic development objectives are based on the national aspi ration to increase the per capita income of all Cook Islanders and to share in the productive sectors of the economy. This is a shift from a policy of dependence to one of self-reliance. The current developmental objectives take greater account of the potential of human resources to increase pro ductivity and utilise the private sector as the engine to drive the economy. Some of the important effects in the Cook Islands and their interactions are identified in Figure 5.1 above. It does not attempt to provide a defin itive description of interactions and cumulative effects but it does provide an indication of some of the most important interrelationships. The most important aspect of Figure 5.1 is that it highlights the very strong inter-linkages between all aspects of human and natural systems that exist in the Cook Islands and that no effect can be considered in com plete isolation. The blue semi-circle shadow of Figure 4.1 demonstrates that climate and sea level rise directly impact on the three major sectors, natural resources, development and economy. It will have a indirect impact on political, social and cultural sectors. However the political, social and cultural systems will determine how these potential impacts will be managed. There is a clear need for better information aimed at providing a more integrated understanding of effects. It is important that integrated assess ment methodologies are developed which are appropriate to the unique, and highly integrated, biophysical, social and economic environment of the Cook Islands. Figure 5.1 above illustrates the integrated nature of all sectors on each other. The sectors are all dependent and interrelated as demonstrated by the circular flow and inter-linking circular arrows. The sectors of the dia gram are defined as: ● Environment – all things natural ● Development – man made structures and features ● Social – demographic, health and education ● Economic – business and trade ● Cultural – traditional values ● Natural Resources – all things natural ● Political – governance, legal framework and systems ● Blue shadow – climate and sea level rise 5.2.4. International Environmental Treaties Since about 1988, the Government of the Cook Islands has signed vari ous treaties in its own right, including the three sister conventions – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol; the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD); and the Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD). In signing the above three conventions, Government has signified the commitment it attaches to the establishment of frameworks to address the issues raised by these Conventions. The Government understands the need to contribute as appropriate towards the achievement of the objec tives of these conventions. The Cook Islands takes its commitment to Climate Change along with these other treaties seriously, especially in light of the fact that the Pacific region as a whole has been affected by adverse climatic conditions includ ing severe drought conditions. The successful implementation of the var ious conventions is expected to improve living conditions, and reduce poverty, while also helping to alleviate problems such as migration, loss of plant and animal species, climate change and the need for emergency aid to population in crisis. 5.3. RESEARCH PROGRAMMES There are a number of research programmes that are being undertaken in the Cook Islands. These have been established in the areas of Meteorological Services, Disaster Management, Agriculture and Marine Resources. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E CROSS SECTORAL MEASURES 37 5.3.1. Meteorological Service Current Systematic and Observational Networks The Cook Islands Meteorological Unit is working continuously to pro vide the most recent climate data not only for the national climate data base but also to support the work of regional and international organisa tions like the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). There are six automatic weather stations (AWS) located on the islands of Aitutaki, Manihiki, Mangaia, Mauke, Pukapuka and Penrhyn. Synoptic three hourly weather reports are interrogated from a platform on each of these islands through a modem in the main office in Rarotonga. In addition two upper air stations are situated in Rarotonga and in Penrhyn. While Rarotonga operates two radar flights a day, the Penrhyn station has only one release a day at 1.00pm local time (2300 GMT). A SEAFRAME station was installed at Avarua Harbour (Rarotonga) to monitor sea level and has been in operation since 1994. Data from this observational network will contribute to the global models that are imple mented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other research organisations as well as meeting the needs and demands of the Cook Islands community. These provide the Cook Islands Meteorological Service with the daily weather readings and information for organisations like WMO who are carrying out readings to assess cli mate patterns globally. Meteorological Services of the Cook Islands are responsible for collating climate data. They are required to monitor climate change and sea level rise and to implement their programme successfully the following infor mation gaps and specific capacity building needs have been identified: Information Gaps ● Early storm surge warnings ● Early cyclone warnings ● Lack of data collection ● Identification of mechanisms for cost effective transfer of data Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Education and awareness ● Training and equipment ● Data transfer systems 5.3.2. Disaster Management Preparedness and a “no regrets” approach has been implemented in the Cook Islands through the Disaster Management Agency. A national plan for Disaster Preparedness has been developed to enable correct respons es to the potential influences of climate change phenomena. The Cook Islands communities live within a range of natural and man made hazards, which make the Islands very vulnerable to disasters of varying magnitudes. In the main the natural hazards include those of cli matic origin, cyclones, floods, drought, fire, storm surge and man-made hazards including those that arise as a result of human interference. Furthermore, the Cook Islands has encountered a significant increase in the number of tropical cyclones, seasonal around November - April, over the past decade. One death is attributed to tropical cyclone Peni in 1990 and eight to trop ical cyclone Martin in 1997. Social, economic and environmental loss was extensive and severe after each cyclone. Economic loss after cyclone Sally in 1987 was estimated at 66% of Cook Islands GDP and cyclone Peni losses were considered to be over $NZ2 million at a time when the Cook Islands was still recovering from Sally. To enable adaptation options to be implemented the following informa tion gaps and specific capacity building needs have been identified for disaster management. Information Gaps ● Lack of information on areas vulnerable to flooding ● Lack of Information on drainage systems ● Legislation development Specific Capacity Building Needs ● Education and awareness ● Training and equipment ● Warning systems ● Appropriate legislation 5.3.3. Agricultural Research The Ministry of Agriculture contin ues to work on developing response plans and research towards the pre dicted climate change in the future. There is a continual use of good and fertile land for developments other than agriculture, especially on the islands of Rarotonga and Aitutaki. This has prompted the Ministry of Agriculture to continue its investiga tion into the performance of new high yielding cultivars of vegetables, rootcrops, and fruit trees with better production per unit area under our climatic and soil conditions. Cultivars of vegetables and root crops with increased tolerance of drought and waterlogged conditions and pest and disease resistance are being investigated. Taro (Colocasia esculenta Schott.) and Giant Swamp Taro (Cyrtosperma chamissonii) that may have some level of tolerance to brackish water will be collected and maintained for the Northern Group Islands. The collection and maintenance of different varieties of root and tuber crops; exotic fruit trees; and bananas for distribution to the public as well as enhancing crop performances through cross breeding programs must be maintained. 5.3.4. Marine Research The Ministry of Marine Resources currently has several research arrange ments with international organisations. The Flinders University of South Australia and University of Hawaii maintain an array of tide monitoring gauges in the Cook Islands. Coral coring surveys have been conducted for climate change with assistance from the University of Hawaii and TOGA Station University of Edinburgh. SOPAC offers assistance with coastal modelling as well as water resource investigations. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E CROSS SECTORAL MEASURES 38 5.4. EDUCATION AND AWARENESS PROGRAMMES Special efforts will be made to ensure the public understand and are aware of climate change issues. Awareness will be raised through the use of a wide range of communication tools such as television, radio and practical demonstrations. The Cook Islands population has little knowledge of climate change, its implications and likely impacts to their daily lives and the nation as a whole. Therefore education and awareness will be very important to ensure that all people are environmentally aware. 5.4.1. Formal Education Climate change has yet to be included and mainstreamed in the current curricula of the formal education system. For future populations to understand and make intelligent and have informed views on the impli cations of climate change and sea level rise these topics must be incorpo rated into the curricula of primary and secondary schools. This can be supplemented with ● School visits and discussion groups ● Media and awareness ● Poster competitions ● Public displays ● Essay competition ● Tree planting activities as sinks ● Speakers to support curricula 5.4.2. Informal Education Informal education activities will be the most effective method of sharing and creating interest in climate change issues. Audiovisual and media print are the two most important tools to develop and use for public dis semination of information. This should involve: ● Weekly television spots ● Television programmes ● Weekly newspaper articles ● Advertisements on radio, television, print ● Mitigation and adaptation awareness campaign – tips for the con sumer ● Public comment on national climate change documents ● Public library information and displays As part of the ongoing education and awareness programme it will be essential that partnerships be developed with the government agencies and non-government organisations. Each organisation can share in the dissemination of information that climate change poses a risk to future generations and this risk must be taken seriously. 5.4.3. Media and Climate change: public awareness and media campaigns The media programmes will be implemented: ● To promote the conservation of water, sound waste management, coping in disaster situations, and sustainable development prac tices on all islands and to preserve or revive traditional conservation practices which support education on climate change. ● To foster a spirit of consultation and public co-operation through better use of the media so that necessary changes to conserve and protect the environment and human life, particularly during times of disaster, are led by public acceptance. ● To develop curriculum materials in environmental education, includ ing climate change and disaster management, for the national edu cation system and community-based education. ● To train workers in a variety of sectors – media, government, and community groups on effectively informing publics of climate change and related environmental areas. ● To raise awareness of political leaders so that they become effective communicators of climate change and related environmental issues, and to provide the same aims and supplementary materials for cli mate change and media workers at national level. ● To facilitate production of materials and education aids which would support the above aims. 5.5. CONCLUSION It is noted that understanding of climate and sea level rise effects, and vul nerability and adaptation in the Cook Islands has been constrained by sig nificant limitations of information and knowledge. The information provided is a summary based on the work of many peo ple involved in the various sectors of the Cook Islands. Adaptation in the Cook Islands should be based on an integrated and comprehensive approach, which encompasses the health and well being of the nation. Local communities should be involved at all stages of the development of adaptation programs. The lead sector should be coastal and marine areas and an adaptation plan, to be part of a climate change action plan, should be drafted, implemented, monitored and regularly updated. A national adaptation strategy in the Cook Islands should follow a ‘no regrets’ approach. Such an approach would prioritise the development and implementation of policies and measures which are beneficial for both the environment and the well being of the Cook Islands even in the absence of climate and sea-level change. It is important that all adaptation options to be adopted must take into account the integrated nature of the environment and the positive approach to redress a negative impact may have further negative impacts in other areas. Stronger measures must be adopted in the management of the environment to reduce the risk of climate change, which will be diffi cult to predict and therefore manage. All these measures should be inte grated into economic planning and implemented through an integrated and comprehensive approach. COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E CROSS SECTORAL MEASURES 39 PICCAP Co-ordinator, Cook Islands Diane McFadzien Teresa Manarangi Trott Pacific Consultants Ltd Ministry of Agriculture William Wigmore Anau Manarangi Tu’anga Tapororporo Environment Service Vaitoti Tupa Tania Temata Ió Tuakeu Lindsay Natural Heritage Project Gerald McCormack Judith Kunzle Greenhouse Gas Consultant Tomoava Wichman Ministry of Works, Energy and Physical Planning Water Department Ben Parakoti Enua Bishop Energy Department Tangi Tereapii Ministry of Outer Islands Development Tenga Epi Ministry of Foreign Affairs Myra Moekaá Disaster Management Tu Tangi Anthony Brown Meteorological Service Arona Ngari Development Investment Board Rohan Ellis Offshore Industry John McFadzien Cook Islands Tourism Corporation Chris Wong Office of the Prime Minister Nga Mataio Ministry of Health Tuaine Teokotai Charlie Ave Te Apongo Uira o Tumutevarovaro Power Supply Rino Mareko Ministry of Finance and Economic Management Statistics Division Taggy Tangimetua Enua Pakitoa Private Sector Eruera Nia Jolene Bosanquet Cook Islands Consulate Office Auckland, New Zealand Marine Resources Ben Ponia Kori Raumea COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS 40 LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS Asian Development Bank (1995) Cook Islands Economic Performance, Issues and Strategies. Asian Development Bank (1996) Socio Cultural Issues and Economic Development in the Pacific Islands, Manilla. Asian Development Bank (1999) TA No. 3085-COO Cook Islands Urban Infrastructure Project Preparatory Technical Assistance. Cook Islands Trustees Company’s Association (1999) Rarotonga. Coxen E. (1991), Senior Secondary Education in the Pacific, University of Auckland, New Zealand Government of the Cook Islands (1988) A Situation Analysis of Children and Women in the Cook Islands. Rarotonga.(with assistance from UNICEF) Government of the Cook Islands (1995) Strategic guidelines for Tourism Development on Rarotonga, 1995 – 2000. Report of the Tourism Task Force, Rarotonga. Government of the Cook Islands (1996) Census of Population and Dwellings, 1996, Ministry of Finance and Economic Management, Rarotonga. Government of the Cook Islands (1997), Ministry of Health Annual Report 1996/97, Cook Islands Government of the Cook Islands. (1997) Annual Report – July 1996 – June 1997. Ministry of Health, Rarotonga, Cook Islands. Government of the Cook Islands (1997) Cook Islands National Disaster Management Plan – 1997 Revised Edition, National Disaster Management Committee, with assistance of South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme (SPDRP) Government of the Cook Islands (1997) Green Paper: Agricultural Sector Development Policy and Strategy for the Cook Islands. Ministry of Agriculture, Rarotonga. Government of the Cook Islands (1997) Annual Report, Ministry of Agriculture, Rarotonga. Government of the Cook Islands (1998) Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update F98/99 Ministry of Financial and Economic Management Rarotonga. Government of the Cook Islands (1999) Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update. Ministry of Financial and Economic Management, Rarotonga. Government of the Cook Islands (1999) Seminar on World Food Summit, Follow up in the South Pacific, Paper presented to FAO confer ence, Apia 6 9th April, 1999. Ministry of Agriculture Cook Islands Country Report. Government of the Cook Islnds (1999), Cook Islands Government Budget Policy Statement 1999/2000, Rarotonga KPMG (1999), KPMG Report to Cook Islands Trustees Company’s Association, Rarotonga, Cook Islands McCormack and Kunzle, (1990), Seabirds of Takutea and Suwarrow, Conservation, Rarotonga Cook Islands Mc Cormack, G (1999) Personal letter, Rarotonga. Offshore Finance USA (1999), September/October Edition Pulea Mere, (1992) Cook Islands Review of Environmental Law – Strengthening Environmental Management Capabilities in Pacific Island Developing Countries, Regional Enviornment Technical Assistance (RETA), 5403, SPREP Ricci, G and Scott, D; (1998) Groundwater Assessment of Rarotonga Coastal Plain – Draft Copy, SOPAC technical report. Sem, G & Underhill Y (1991) Implications of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise for the Cook Islands. Report of a preparatory Mission, SPREP, Apia. Standard and Poors (1998) Cook Islands Report South Pacific Regional Environmental Programme (1993) Cook Islands National Environmental and Management Strategies, Apia. South Pacific Commission (1997) Cook Islands 1997 National Fisheries Assessement – Oceanic Fisheries Programme Country Report No. 10, New Caledonia. Rarotonga Local Government Act 1997, No 10 House of Ariki Act, 1966 Education Act, 1987 COOK ISLANDS INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION U N I T E D N A T I O N S F R A M E W O R K C O N V E N T I O N O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY 41