National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

1.1. Climate Change in Bulgaria .................................................................................................... 5

1.2. Climate Risks and Vulnerabilities in Economic Sectors ......................................................... 7

1.2.1. Agriculture....................................................................................................................... 7

1.2.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ............................................................................... 9

1.2.3. Energy............................................................................................................................ 11

1.2.4. Forestry .......................................................................................................................... 14

1.2.5. Human health................................................................................................................. 16

1.2.6. Tourism.......................................................................................................................... 17

1.2.7. Transport........................................................................................................................ 19

1.2.8. Urban environment ........................................................................................................ 20

1.2.9. Water ............................................................................................................................. 22 1.3. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Interrelationships Between Economic Sectors ................... 23

1.3.1. Agriculture..................................................................................................................... 24

1.3.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ............................................................................. 24

1.3.3. Energy............................................................................................................................ 25

1.3.4. Forestry .......................................................................................................................... 26

1.3.5. Human health................................................................................................................. 26

1.3.6. Tourism.......................................................................................................................... 26

1.3.7. Transport........................................................................................................................ 27

1.3.8. Urban environment ........................................................................................................ 27

1.3.9. Water ............................................................................................................................. 28

1.4. Macroeconomic Consequences of Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction and Action ....... 28 Chapter 2. Policy and Institutional Context........................................................................................... 32

2.1. Climate Change Awareness and Knowledge Gaps ............................................................... 32

2.1.1. Agriculture..................................................................................................................... 32

2.1.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ............................................................................. 32

2.1.3. Energy............................................................................................................................ 33

2.1.4. Forestry .......................................................................................................................... 33

2.1.5. Human Health ................................................................................................................ 33 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- iv National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

2.1.6. Tourism.......................................................................................................................... 34

2.1.7. Transport........................................................................................................................ 34

2.1.8. Urban environment ........................................................................................................ 34

2.1.9. Water ............................................................................................................................. 35

2.2. Legal Framework for Climate Change Adaptation ............................................................... 35

2.2.1. International framework ................................................................................................ 35

2.2.2. EU framework ............................................................................................................... 36

2.2.3. National framework ....................................................................................................... 37

2.2.4. Sector level .................................................................................................................... 38

2.3. Institutional and Stakeholders’ Framework ........................................................................... 43

2.3.1. Agriculture..................................................................................................................... 44

2.3.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ............................................................................. 45

2.3.3. Energy............................................................................................................................ 46

2.3.4. Forestry .......................................................................................................................... 47

2.3.5. Human health................................................................................................................. 48

2.3.6. Tourism.......................................................................................................................... 49

2.3.7. Transport........................................................................................................................ 49

2.3.8. Urban environment ........................................................................................................ 50

2.3.9. Water ............................................................................................................................. 51

2.3.10. Disaster risk management .............................................................................................. 52

2.4. Ongoing and Foreseen CCA Actions .................................................................................... 52

2.4.1. Agriculture..................................................................................................................... 52

2.4.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ............................................................................. 53

2.4.3. Energy............................................................................................................................ 53

2.4.4. Forestry .......................................................................................................................... 54

2.4.5. Human health................................................................................................................. 54

2.4.6. Tourism.......................................................................................................................... 54

2.4.7. Transport........................................................................................................................ 54

2.4.8. Urban environment ........................................................................................................ 55

2.4.9. Water ............................................................................................................................. 55

2.5. Gaps and Barriers Hindering CCA Response........................................................................ 55 Chapter 3. Vision on Climate Change Adaptation ................................................................................ 59

3.1. PEST and SWOT Analyses ................................................................................................... 59 3.1.1. Political, economic, social and technological (PEST) context ...................................... 59

3.1.2. Climate change context ................................................................................................. 61

3.1.3. SWOT analysis .............................................................................................................. 62 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- v National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

3.1.4. Policy response .............................................................................................................. 65

3.2. Vision for Development of Adaptation Action ..................................................................... 66

3.2.1. Vision statement and long-term objective ..................................................................... 66

3.2.2. Timeframe for the Strategy............................................................................................ 70

3.3. Guiding Principles in Strategy Implementation .................................................................... 70 Chapter 4. Strategic Objectives ............................................................................................................. 72

4.1. Strategic Objectives ............................................................................................................... 72

4.1.1. General strategic objectives ........................................................................................... 72

4.1.2. Strategic objectives for sectors ...................................................................................... 72

4.2. Adaptation Options ................................................................................................................ 74

4.2.1. Agriculture..................................................................................................................... 75

4.2.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ............................................................................. 76

4.2.3. Energy............................................................................................................................ 77

4.2.4. Forestry .......................................................................................................................... 78

4.2.5. Human health................................................................................................................. 79

4.2.6. Tourism.......................................................................................................................... 80

4.2.7. Transport........................................................................................................................ 81

4.2.8. Urban environment ........................................................................................................ 81

4.2.9. Water ............................................................................................................................. 82

4.3. Cost-benefit Analysis ............................................................................................................ 83

4.4. Cross-Cutting Issues, Tradeoffs, and Synergies .................................................................... 86

4.5. Financial Resources ............................................................................................................... 89

4.5.1. EU and international funding ........................................................................................ 90

4.5.2. Funding sources by Sector ............................................................................................. 92 Chapter 5. National Programme and Action Plan ................................................................................. 98

5.1. Operational Objectives .......................................................................................................... 98

5.2. Priority Options ................................................................................................................... 102

5.2.1. Agriculture................................................................................................................... 103

5.2.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ........................................................................... 103

5.2.3. Energy.......................................................................................................................... 104

5.2.4. Forestry ........................................................................................................................ 105

5.2.5. Human health............................................................................................................... 105

5.2.6. Tourism........................................................................................................................ 105

5.2.7. Transport...................................................................................................................... 106

5.2.8. Urban environment ...................................................................................................... 106

5.2.9. Water ........................................................................................................................... 107 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- vi National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

5.3. Activities.............................................................................................................................. 108

5.3.1. Agriculture................................................................................................................... 109

5.3.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ........................................................................... 109

5.3.3. Energy.......................................................................................................................... 110

5.3.4. Forestry ........................................................................................................................ 111

5.3.5. Human health............................................................................................................... 111

5.3.6. Tourism........................................................................................................................ 112

5.3.7. Transport...................................................................................................................... 112

5.3.8. Urban environment ...................................................................................................... 112

5.3.9. Water ........................................................................................................................... 113

5.4. Expected Results ................................................................................................................. 113

5.4.1. Agriculture................................................................................................................... 113

5.4.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services ........................................................................... 114

5.4.3. Energy.......................................................................................................................... 114

5.4.4. Forestry ........................................................................................................................ 114

5.4.5. Human health............................................................................................................... 115

5.4.6. Tourism........................................................................................................................ 115

5.4.7. Transport...................................................................................................................... 115

5.4.8. Urban environment ...................................................................................................... 116

5.4.9. Water ........................................................................................................................... 116 Chapter 6. The Way Forward .............................................................................................................. 117

6.1. Monitoring and Reporting ................................................................................................... 117

6.2. Performance Indicators ........................................................................................................ 119

6.3. Concluding Comments ........................................................................................................ 120 References ........................................................................................................................................... 121 Annex 1. Climate Change Scenarios in the Bulgarian Context ........................................................... 124 Annex 2. Sector Interrelationships in Relation to Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities............ 126 Annex 3. Climate Change Adaptation Action Plans – Per Sector ....................................................... 135 Action Plan – Agriculture Sector .................................................................................................... 137 Action Plan – Biodiversity and Ecosystems Sector ........................................................................ 141 Action Plan – Energy Sector ........................................................................................................... 151 Action Plan – Forestry Sector ......................................................................................................... 155 Action Plan – Human Health Sector ............................................................................................... 161 Action Plan – Tourism Sector ......................................................................................................... 163 Action Plan – Transport Sector ....................................................................................................... 167 Action Plan – Urban Environment Sector ....................................................................................... 169 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- vii National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Water Sector ............................................................................................................. 172 Annex 4. List of Sector Assessment Reports ...................................................................................... 173 List of Figures Figure 1. Simplified illustration of framework of National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Report .................................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 2. Average Year Temperature for 1961–1990 (A); Pessimistic Climate Scenario for Average Year Temperature for 2080 (B) ........................................................................................................................ 5 Figure 3. Precipitation per Year for 1961–1990 (A); Precipitation per Year for 2080, According to the Pessimistic Scenario (B) .......................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 4. General Concept of WGII AR5 ................................................................................................ 7 Figure 5. Structure and main actors in implementing the Bulgarian climate change policy ................. 44 List of Tables Table 1. SWOT analysis ........................................................................................................................ 63 Table 2. Summary of agricultural adaptation options ........................................................................... 75 Table 3. Summary of biodiversity and ecosystems services adaptation options ................................... 76 Table 4. Summary of energy sector adaptation options ........................................................................ 77 Table 5. Summary of forestry sector adaptation options ....................................................................... 78 Table 6. Summary of human health adaptation options ........................................................................ 79 Table 7. Summary of tourism sector adaptation options ....................................................................... 80 Table 8. Summary of transport sector adaptation options ..................................................................... 81 Table 9. Summary of urban environment adaptation options................................................................ 81 Table 10. Summary of water sector adaptation options ........................................................................ 83 Table 11. Benefits of adaptation measures in sectors under different climate scenarios until 2050 (in €, million) .................................................................................................................................................. 85 Table 12. Operational Objectives: Agriculture...................................................................................... 98 Table 13. Operational Objectives: Biodiversity and ecosystems services ............................................ 99 Table 14. Operational Objectives: Energy ............................................................................................ 99 Table 15. Operational Objectives: Forestry ......................................................................................... 100 Table 16. Operational Objectives: Human Health............................................................................... 100 Table 17. Operational Objectives: Tourism ........................................................................................ 100 Table 18. Operational Objectives: Transport ...................................................................................... 101 Table 19. Operational Objectives: Urban Environment ...................................................................... 101 Table 20. Operational Objectives: Water ............................................................................................ 101 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- viii National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Table 2.1. Sector interrelationships: Negative impacts of climate change .......................................... 126 Table 2.2. Sector interrelationships: Positive impacts of climate change ........................................... 131 List of Boxes Box 1. Main recommendations to the new MFF with respect to climate financing .............................. 92 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- ix National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Abbreviations and Acronyms ABTTA Association of Bulgarian Tour Operators and Travel Agents AR5 Assessment Report 5 BAAT Bulgarian Association for Alternative Tourism BAS Bulgarian Academy of Sciences BATA Bulgarian Association of Travel Agents BCC Bulgarian Construction Chamber BCCI Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry BCWFI Branch Chamber of Woodworking and Furniture Industry BD Biodiversity BEH EAD Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD BFSA Bulgarian Food Safety Agency BHRA Bulgarian Hotelier and Restaurant Association BPI Bulgarian Ports Infrastructure Company BTCH Bulgarian Tourist Chamber CAA Civil Aviation Administration CAB Chamber of Architects in Bulgaria CAP Common Agricultural Policy CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CBD Convention for Biodiversity CCA Climate Change Adaptation CCHH Climate Change and Human Health CCMA Climate Change Mitigation Act CEF Connecting Europe Facility CEIB Confederation of Employers and Industrialists in Bulgaria CEID Chamber of Engineers in the Investment Desigh CFP Common Fisheries Policy CGE Computable General Equilibrium Climate-ADAPT European Climate Adaptation Platform CO2 Carbon Dioxide CoM Council of Ministers COP 21 21st Conference of the Parties DFRMP Danube Flood Risk Management Plan DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- x National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan EAFA Executive Agency for Fisheries and Aquaculture EAP Environment Action Programme EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission EE Energy Efficiency EFA Executive Forest Agency EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIB European Investment Bank EMEPA Enterprise for Management of Environmental Protection Activities EPA Environment Protection Act ERDF European Regional Development Fund ES Ecosystems ESCOs Energy Service Companies ESIF European Structural and Investment Funds ESS Ecosystem Services ETS Emission Trading Scheme EU ETS European Union Emissions Trading System EU European Union EUSF European Union Solidarity Fund EWRC Energy and Water Regulatory Commission ExAAA Executive Agency Automobile Administration ExAEMDR Executive Agency “Exploration and Maintenance of the Danube River” ExAMA Executive Agency Maritime Administration ExARA Executive Agency Railway Administration ExEA Executive Environment Agency ExFA Executive Forest Agency FA Forest Act FRI Forest Research Institute to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences FRMP Flood Risk Management Plan FSCPDG Fire Safety and Civil Protection Directorate General at the Ministry of Interior GCI Global Competitiveness Index GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GoB Government of Bulgaria --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- xi National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project GVA Gross Value Added HPP Hydroelectric Power Plant IAS Invasive Alien Species IBER Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences ICT Information and Communication Technology IFI International Financial Institution INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INTERREG Interregional Cooperation Programme IPA Institute of Public Administration IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KP Kyoto Protocol M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Forestry MC Ministry of Culture MCA Multicriteria Analysis MEc Ministry of Economy MEn Ministry of Energy MES Ministry of Education and Science MEx Ministry of Exterior MF Ministry of Finance MFF Multiannual Financial Framework MH Ministry of Health MI Ministry of Interior MLSP Ministry of Labor and Social Policy MoEW Ministry of Environment and Water MRDPW Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works MT Ministry of Tourism MTITC Ministry of Transport, Information Technology, and Communications NA National Assembly NAAS National Agricultural Advisory Services NAFA National Agency for Fisheries and Aquaculture NAMRB National Association of Municipalities in Republic of Bulgaria NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- xii National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan NAS National Adaptation Strategy NCEQEMS National Center for Education and Qualification in the EMS System NCPHA National Center for Public Health and Analysis NCRD National Centre for Regional Development NCSD National Concept for Spatial Development NDP BG2020 National Development Program: Bulgaria 2020 NDP National Development Plan NECCC National Expert Council on Climate Change NEK Natsionalna Elektricheska Kompania (National Electricity Company) NFI National Forest Inventory NGO Nongovernmental Organization NIMH National Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology NPP Nuclear Power Plant NPV Net Present Value NRA Nuclear Regulatory Agency NRIC National Railway Infrastructure Company NRN National Rural Network NSDFSRB National Strategy for Development of the Forest Sector in the Republic of Bulgaria 2013 - 2020 NSEM National System for Environmental Monitoring NSI National Statistical Institute NTC National Tourist Council NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics OP Operational Programme OPTTI Operational Programme Transport and Transport Infrastructure 2014 - 2020 OTRM Organization for Tourism Regions Management PEST Political, Economic, Social, and Technical PTSD Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder R&D Research and Development RBD River Basin Directorate RBMP River Basin Management Plan RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RDP Rural Development Programme RES Renewable Energy Sources RHI Regional Health Inspectorate --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- xiii National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan RIA Road Infrastructure Agency SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SDG Sustainable Development Goal SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SEDA Sustainable Energy Development Agency SEEA System of Environmental-Economic Accounting SFA State Fund for Agriculture SME Small and Medium Enterprises SU Sofia University SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats T&D Transmission and Distribution TEN-E Trans-European Networks for Energy TPP Thermal Power Plant TSO Transmission System Operator UAB Union of Architects in Bulgaria UACEG University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy UBA Union of Bulgarian Architects UF University of Forestry – Sofia UKCIP U.K. Climate Impacts Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNWE University of National and World Economy UPB Union of Planners in Bulgaria UV Ultraviolet WFD Water Framework Directive WG Working Group --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- xiv National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Glossary2 Climate change refers to a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Global warming refers to the gradual increase, observed or projected, in global surface temperature, as one of the consequences of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions. Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimize the damage they can cause. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. Mitigation (of climate change) is a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which any system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the negative impacts that climate change imposes upon it. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Resilience is the opposite of vulnerability and is defined as the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, capacity for self-organization, and capacity to adapt to stress and change. Risk is the potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as the probability or likelihood of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur. 2 Definitions are based on WGII AR5 (IPCC 2014). --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- xv National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Executive Summary 1. This proposal for a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for the Republic of Bulgaria sets a framework for climate change adaptation (CCA) action and priority directions up to 2030, identifying and confirming the need for CCA action both at economy-wide and sectoral levels. The sectors included are agriculture, biodiversity, and ecosystems (BD&ES) services, energy, forestry, human health, transport, tourism, urban environment, and water. Disaster-risk management is also considered as a cross-sectoral topic. 2. The rationale for development of the Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan is that Bulgaria is situated in one of the regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate change (mainly through temperature increase and extreme precipitation) and to the increased frequency of climate change-related extreme events, such as droughts and floods. The risks inflicted by climate change-related events may lead to loss of human life or cause considerable damage, affecting economic growth and prosperity, both nationally and transboundary. Consensus exists in the scientific community that climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events while increases in annual air temperature and changes in rainfall patterns are expected in the coming decades in the country. 3. All sectors of the economy are expected to be affected by the anticipated changes. These changes would furthermore affect society and its citizens as well as the economy as a whole. The general conclusions from the Macro-economic Implications of Climate Change report underline the costs of no action on adaptation. Climate change impacts do not affect all people and territories equally due to different levels of exposure, existing vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacities to cope. The risk is greater for the segments of the society and businesses that are less prepared and more vulnerable. 4. For all sectors, there are considerable uncertainties in assessing the nature and scale of climate change vulnerabilities. However, key common themes in the assessment of climate risks and vulnerabilities across all sectors in the country are the potential impacts, both from increased frequency of climate change-related extreme events and gradual changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, on infrastructures, production, human health, and ecosystems services, with resulting consequences for economic growth and livelihoods. The economic analysis undertaken for this strategy estimates a cumulative loss in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2050 at between 1 percent and 3.5 percent, compared with the baseline scenario. 5. These risks and vulnerabilities should also be understood in terms of the complex interrelationships and interdependencies between economic sectors. In particular, specific risks may create cascading impacts across different sectors. There is also a spatial dimension to these interrelationships because climate change impacts and consequences affect different parts of the country in a different manner. Thus, understanding the spatial distribution of climate change risks is important in developing appropriate and effective local adaptation strategies. 6. In general, in Bulgaria, there is increasing awareness on climate change but more limited awareness of specific adaptation issues, both among the public and some other stakeholders. At the political and policy-making level, a high general awareness of potential future consequences of climate change exists. However, there is considerable uncertainty on how this might be --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 1 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan manifested across different sectors. Policy making has so far mainly concerned the identification and implementation of climate change mitigation measures and not adaptation. 7. The legal framework and policies for CCA in Bulgaria should be understood in the context of its commitments under international conventions and EU legislation. At the national level, a number of key strategies and programs provide a foundation for legislation on climate change in general (in particular, Third National Action Plan on Climate Change [NAPCC]) but up to now the focus has been on mitigation, and there are no explicit adaptation strategies developed at the national or sector level in Bulgaria. Similarly, the climate change-related institutional framework in Bulgaria has, over recent years, focused mainly on mitigation. The institutional framework related to CCA is an element of the overall climate change institutional framework set out in the Climate Change Mitigation Act (CCMA). 8. The overall conclusion from the review of current ongoing actions on CCA is that this is rather limited in some sectors, and there is a need for fresh impetus and that should be provided by a national strategy. However, there are several gaps and barriers hindering CCA responses in general, which are also very relevant for Bulgaria and need to be taken into account in designing the strategy. These include the need to address awareness-raising and communication, institutional capacity, knowledge and data gaps, the policy and legal framework, and limitations in financial and human resources. The role of education and information is seen as a key pre-condition to allow for successful implementation of other adaptation actions. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) and Political, Economic, Social, and Technical (PEST) analyses undertaken for this strategy analyze such issues in the Bulgarian context and provide a basis for setting out general strategic objectives for CCA for the country. These are proposed as follows:  Mainstream and integrate CCA. This includes strengthening the policy and legal framework for adaptation and the integration of adaptation considerations into existing national and sectoral plans and programs.  Build institutional capacity for CCA. This includes building expertise, training, the knowledge base, monitoring, and research to enable and support adaptation actions.  Raise awareness on CCA. This includes enhancing education and public awareness about CCA issues and the need for adaptation actions to be implemented in Bulgaria to build public acceptance and participation of adaptation-related policies and actions.  Build climate change resilience. This includes strengthening infrastructure and asset management and the protection of natural capital and covers water system infrastructure, energy supply infrastructure, and protecting and enhancing ecosystems services (including those provided by forest resources). 9. A set of strategic objectives for each sector have also been developed to address the adaptation needs in specific sectors. These address common themes to the general strategic objectives given earlier. A set of operational objectives and proposed adaptation activities, related to the specific strategic objectives of each sector, have also been developed. Selection of adaptation activities is based on the range of adaptation options identified in the sector assessment reports written for this strategy and have been informed by a priority setting exercise --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 2 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for the identified adaptation options in which stakeholders were consulted using a multicriteria analysis (MCA) approach. 10. The list of proposed adaptation activities to be included in the Action Plan, for the period up to 2030, for all strategic objectives and operational objectives per sector has, therefore, been developed for this strategy document. This includes indicative details for each adaptation activity of budget amounts and sources, priorities (in short, medium, and long term), duration, expected results, monitoring indicators, and responsible institutions. A shorter list of short-term highest priority actions for each sector has also been developed. The general conclusions from the Cost Benefit Analyses (CBA) undertaken on adaptation options focusing on soft measures (summarized in the Sector Assessment Reports) demonstrate the cost savings that can result from the decrease of potential damage caused by climate change and show that investments in these measures are economically efficient. 11. Activities which are assessed as priorities to start in the short term will be, in many cases, measures which enable and support following adaptation actions. This means that many of these priority actions across all sectors are soft measures (assessed as no cost or low cost) supporting the strategic and operational objectives related to (a) building institutional capacity (including through addressing knowledge gaps), (b) mainstreaming and integrating CCA into existing national and sectoral plans and programs, and (c) raising awareness. These will provide the foundation for medium- and longer-term practical actions for building climate change resilience including through the management of infrastructure and assets, and the protection and enhancement of natural capital. Underpinning sector-based activities, a number of general coordinating and facilitating activities for the strategy and action plan are necessary to focus on delivering the general strategic objectives. In particular, the process of monitoring and reporting of progress in the implementation of the measures set out in the Action Plan is proposed. 12. Figure 1 provides a simplified framework for the structure of this report showing how the climate change adaptation vision, strategy and action plan have been developed from the assessment of climate risks and vulnerabilities for each sector. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 3 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Figure 1. Simplified illustration of framework of National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Report Current Policy Vision and strategic objectives for Climate risks context Development of Action Plan context adaptation Climate Change Awareness and Climate Knowledge Gaps Variables Action Plan Operational Priority Actions, Vision on Financing, Legal Framework Objectives Gradual changes Climate Risks and Climate Strategic Institutional for Climate Change and Vulnerabilities in Change Objectives responsibilities, Adaptation Adaptation Monitoring and Economic Sectors Adaptation Options reporting Extreme Weather Institutional and Events Stakeholders’ Framework --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 4 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Chapter 1. Climate Change Adaptation - Risks and Vulnerabilities

1.1. Climate Change in Bulgaria 13. Bulgaria is situated in one of the regions that is particularly vulnerable to climate change (mainly through temperature increase and extreme precipitation) and to the increased frequency of climate change-related extreme events, such as droughts and floods. The risks inflicted by climate change-related events may lead to loss of human life or cause considerable damage, affecting economic growth and prosperity, both nationally and transboundary. 14. Consensus exists in the scientific community that climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Over the past decades, in Bulgaria, this frequency has increased significantly. The most common hydrometeorological and natural hazards are extreme precipitation and temperatures, storms, floods, wildfires, landslides, and droughts. The number of deaths and victims due to natural hazards is considerable, indicating weather and climate vulnerability. The vulnerability of Bulgaria’s population and businesses to the impacts of climate change is accelerated by a relatively high degree of poverty in the most affected areas, the Figure 2. Average Year Temperature for 1961–1990 continuing concentration of the (A); Pessimistic Climate Scenario for Average Year country’s population in several Temperature for 2080 (B) industrial and urban regions, and various consequences of the transition from a state-controlled economy to a free-market economy. A growing body of evidence suggests that economic losses from climate- and weather-related disasters have also been rising. 15. Scientific projections indicate A that global temperature will rise between 1.8°C and 4°C by 2100, with the temperature increase in Europe expected to be even higher than the estimated global average. 16. Research conducted by the Department of Meteorology, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH-BAS), projects an B increase in annual air temperature Source: NIMH. in Bulgaria of 0.7°C to 1.8°C by 2020. Even warmer temperatures are expected by 2050 and 2080, with projected increases of 1.6°C to 3.1°C and 2.9°C to 4.1°C, respectively (Figure 2). Generally, the temperature increase is expected to be more significant during the summer season (from July to September). --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 5 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 17. In terms of the expected changes Figure 3. Precipitation per Year for 1961–1990 (A); in rainfall patterns, a reduction in Precipitation per Year for 2080, According to the precipitation is likely, leading to a Pessimistic Scenario (B) significant reduction of the total water reserves in the country. In this regard, projections suggest a decrease in precipitation by approximately 10 percent by 2020, 15 percent by 2050, and up to 30 percent to 40 percent by 2080 (Figure 3). In most climate change scenarios, rainfall during the winter months is likely to increase by the end of the century, but significant decrease in A rainfall during the summer months is expected to offset this increase. 18. According to the available climate change scenarios for Bulgaria, there is a trend toward increased frequency of extreme events and disasters, as demonstrated by frequent occurrences of heavy rainfalls, heat and cold waves, floods and droughts, hurricane winds, forest fires, and B landslides. Source: NIMH. 19. Biodiversity, land and aquatic ecosystems, as well as water resources, agriculture, and forestry sectors are expected to be affected by the anticipated changes. These changes would furthermore affect society and its citizens as well as the economy as a whole. 20. Climate change impacts do not affect all people and territories equally due to different levels of exposure, existing vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacities to cope. The risk is greater for the segments of the society and businesses that are less prepared and more vulnerable. 21. The specific challenges due to climate change faced by sectors in Bulgaria are analyzed in detail in Bulgaria’s sector assessment reports (available separately as appendices to this strategy) that were developed in 2017 for agriculture, biodiversity, and ecosystems (BD&ES), energy, forestry, human health, transport, tourism, urban environment, and water management. These reports use the terms and definitions of risk, vulnerability, and adaptation options as introduced by WGII Assessment Report 5 (AR5) (IPCC 2014). Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure. Changes in both the climate system (left side in Figure 4) and socioeconomic processes including adaptation and mitigation (right side of Figure 4) are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. This understanding reveals the importance of the adaptation options. Vulnerability, hazard, and/or exposure will be reduced, and thus the risk will be mitigated when adaptation options are properly identified and timely implemented. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 6 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Figure 4. General Concept of WGII AR5 Source: IPCC 2014.

1.2. Climate Risks and Vulnerabilities in Economic Sectors 22. This section summarizes key climate risks and vulnerabilities in nine economic sectors of Bulgaria based on the conclusions from nine sector assessment reports (under separate cover as appendices to this strategy), which also draw on the National Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for the Sectors of the Bulgarian Economy (MoEW 2014). The potential opportunities from climate change are also outlined where these have been identified in sector assessment reports. 23. For all sectors, there are considerable uncertainties in assessing the nature and scale of climate change vulnerabilities. This is due to the complexity of taking into account multiple factors including future environmental, economic, and social changes. A major source of uncertainty relates to the degree to which future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will change radiative forcing over the coming century. GHG emissions are driven by complex factors such as population growth, economic growth, and energy policy.

1.2.1. Agriculture 24. Agriculture plays a key yet disproportionate role in the socioeconomic fabric of rural Bulgaria. The agricultural sector generated 4.4 percent of the country’s total gross value added (GVA) and provided employment to 5.8 percent of the labor force (second highest rate in EU-28) in 20153. More generally, the country remains predominantly rural, and while the rural space is richly endowed with natural resources, it is marked by lower incomes, limited job opportunities, an aging farm population, higher rates of poverty (the majority of the rural population is at risk of poverty or social exclusion), and an ensuing urban-rural divide in social and living standards. 3 NSI Eurostat --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 7 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 25. Climate change will be a significant factor in the future development of Bulgarian agriculture; the first negative impacts are already a reality. The frequency and intensity of adverse climatic events have increased during the last decades—three distinct periods of droughts have been experienced and more frequent floods caused by prolonged and intense rainfalls are being regularly encountered, yet difficult to predict. Temperature increases from 2°C to 5°C and significant changes in precipitation patterns are projected by the end of this century. Climate change scenarios for Bulgaria indicate an increased frequency of climatic adverse events, such as longer droughts, heat waves, heavy rainfalls, and floods. 26. The agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as a provider of adequate food, pillar for economic growth, deliverer of ecosystem services, and provider of livelihoods for the rural population. However, the risk of the impacts of climate change is not equally distributed with regional differences in the likelihood of negative impacts from droughts and floods, as well as differences in the vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity of rural dwellers to climate change. These differences are further accentuated by the pronounced dual farm structures and uneven land distribution that characterize the agriculture sector in Bulgaria. This engenders substantial differences in resilience and adaptive capacity between (a) large-scale commercial farms, which are economically highly vulnerable to the impact of drought and floods on crop yields and farm profits but are better resourced to invest in adaptation measures; and (b) smallholders practicing (semi-)subsistence farming who are also socially and economically vulnerable to adverse climate events, but tend to have more intrinsic resilience due to their more diversified production, stronger social relations, and off- farm income diversification. 27. Extreme weather events and gradual climate changes may have a strong impact on yields and quality of output. Specific climate change risks and vulnerabilities in the agricultural sector in Bulgaria are as follows:  Changes in length of growing season. A longer growing season would allow better distribution of individual species and improve opportunities for growing new, more thermophilic species or secondary crops.  Agro-phenology. In Bulgaria, earlier flowering of trees, a longer season for vines, and changes in the other natural crop cycles are expected, thus affecting final yields. In the case of cereals, further contractions of inter-phase periods from flowering to ripening are expected. A shorter reproductive period would also mean less time for grain filling, which would have a negative impact on yields.  Crop yields. Yields depend on a number of factors including the length of the growing season and other crop productivity factors. Changes in yield volumes for major crops (winter wheat, corn, and sunflower) are forecasted due to projected temperature rises and reduced rainfall. Rising concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the future might also create conditions to improve the yields of some crops.  Increased risk of spread of pests, diseases, and weeds. Changes in temperature, moisture, and concentration of atmospheric gases could not only stimulate growth and the generation of plants, fungi, and insects, but also change interactions between pests and their natural enemies and hosts. Pests and diseases often lead to harvest losses and --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 8 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan an increased use of pesticides and veterinary drugs. A longer growing season would also affect the spread of a number of weeds, diseases, and pests.  Adverse effects on livestock production. Livestock will be adversely affected by greater heat stress from increases in air temperature and humidity which affects animal production health and well-being. Changes in temperature and precipitation may affect livestock breeding in terms of reproduction, metabolism, and health. Changes in temperature and precipitation may also result in the spread of pathogens, and parasites may influence the distribution of diseases with concomitant decrease in animal productivity and increase in mortality. Climate change may also affect the availability and quality of fodder and grazing resources.  Increased risk of soil aridity, erosion, desertification, and salinization. More frequent and intense droughts will likely increase soil aridity, which combined with hot winds will increase the risk of wind erosion and soil degradation. These factors increase the risk of triggering desertification, marginalization, and abandonment of agricultural land in the areas where soils are lighter and more vulnerable to erosion.  Risk of water shortage. A combination of factors may lead to water shortages in some regions of the country, leading to increased irrigation requirements. Higher temperatures and lower relative humidity will increase water needs due to evapotranspiration in agricultural plantations, although increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere will result in higher water-use efficiency due to reduced transpiration and an increased rate of photosynthesis. Reduced precipitation levels may cause a reduction in water reserves and lower accumulation of water in irrigation reservoirs. Increased droughts and growing water need of industrial and urban water users may lead to increased competition with agriculture for water resources.  Adverse impacts on fisheries and aquaculture. Droughts may lead to reduced water levels that pose a serious threat to fish farming systems and may also decrease the smaller mountain river and stream water levels, and may leading to loss of species. Higher temperatures also lead to changes in the spawning period of species. For open- basin rivers, this might cause migration to deeper, colder waters. Increased water level may affect dikes and river embankments and may lead to the destruction of valuable spawning, nursery, or feeding habitats. 28. It is evident that a combination of the above climate change risks and vulnerabilities in the agricultural sector will have an impact on aggregate and individual households’ production levels and living standards. Droughts and floods are one of the most important manifestations of climate change in agriculture and cause significant variability of yields. With the farming sector contributing significantly to the Bulgarian economy and growing agricultural vulnerability to adverse climatic events, it is expected that the livelihoods of many Bulgarians will be increasingly affected.

1.2.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 29. Bulgaria is a country of rich biodiversity. Its diverse physical geography and location on the border of different climatic and vegetation regions creates favorable conditions for the existence of nearly 41,493 plant and animal species—26 percent of European species, including --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 9 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 25 percent of those in the Red Book of Europe. NATURA 2000 sites, which occupy 34.4 percent of the territory, and protected areas with a range of 584,569.19 ha or 5.3 percent of the country's area, are dedicated for their conservation. 30. Projections for gradual climate changes and extreme climate events are expected to have effects at all levels of BD&ES. Manifestations of climate change are expected to have different impacts on different types of ecosystems and affect biodiversity and ecosystem services in a range of ways including in an abrupt and even catastrophic manner. On the other hand, the projected annual increase in average temperatures may help adaptation by extending the vegetation periods and allowing for the migration of species in natural ecosystems or the controlled introduction of species for agriculture, green infrastructure, or other adaptation purposes. 31. The main vulnerabilities to climate change at the different levels of BD&ES in Bulgaria are summarized as follows:  Loss of genetic diversity. Genetic diversity is subject to threats posed directly by climate change on vulnerable/endangered species (including endemic species with a limited range and opportunities for migration) that may be lost forever. There are also indirect climate change induced effects due to competition for resources between biodiversity and human activities that cause an increase of other pressures (such as water extraction, overexploitation of rare species by vulnerable population groups, land-use change, and fragmentation by infrastructure).  Disruption of species lifecycles and phenological phases. Climate change can affect the life cycles and breeding periods of species, within ecosystems, to affect populations and processes in the ecosystem (food chains and competition for resources), including by invasion of invasive species which compete with native species and replace them from traditional niches, therefore, changing the ecosystem’s integrity. Invasive species may also bring opportunities for climate change adaptation (CCA) if used as an indicator in an early warning mechanism or if they are commercially important and contribute to providing ecosystem services.  Deterioration of habitats. The possible consequence of climate change is the deterioration of habitats in the categories of critically endangered, endangered, vulnerable, and nearly threatened as included in the Red Data Book of the Republic of Bulgaria, Habitats (BAS 2011). In particular, high-altitude habitats are vulnerable to these changes.  Impacts on the provision of ecosystems services. A key risk is the regime shifts in the long term that may occur in the provision of ecosystem services. Regime shifts could be in both directions: - Positive impacts: increased length of the growing period could lead to increasing productivity of terrestrial ecosystems, including crop yield and timber harvesting. Increasing temperature could also change the water condition of water bodies, resulting in changes in fish composition and structures. Disturbances in ecosystems caused by extreme events may also lead to the emergence of new species composition conductive to improved provision of ecosystem services. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 10 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan - Negative impacts: periods of drought could change the composition of producers in the terrestrial ecosystems causing changes in their functioning and resulting in reduced provision of ecosystem services. Increasing floods, fires, windthrows, and bark beetle outbreaks in forests will cause tree mortality and replacement by more adaptive species, changing the ecosystem integrity and potentially reducing the provision of ecosystem services both in the short – to mid-term (until the systems adapt and productivity is restored) or permanently (if the new equilibrium state involves reduced production of ecosystem services). The most vulnerable ecosystems are the southern border forestry area as well as the other lowland areas of the country. The inland wetlands ecosystems, heathland and shrub ecosystems (especially in the alpine zone in mountains), and coastal zone ecosystems are also the most sensitive to climate change. 32. Gradual climate changes and extreme weather events are, therefore, likely to affect all levels of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystems. However, the vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment of BD&ES services to climate change is very complex and includes large levels of uncertainty within scientific information, system understanding, and expert knowledge. Furthermore, the climate change impacts on ecosystem integrity characteristics are insufficiently studied due to a lack of data time series with suitable quality and the complexity of interactions in the system.

1.2.3. Energy 33. The energy sector in Bulgaria is highly important in terms of its economic contribution, with the industry and energy sectors accounting for around 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Energy generation is heavily dependent on local coal production, which contributes over half of the primary energy supply, followed by nuclear energy at 34 percent. However, Bulgaria is also highly dependent on imported energy resources (natural gas, crude oil, and nuclear fuel). In the medium term, thermal power, both from Thermal Power Plants (TPP) and Nuclear Power Plants (NPP), is expected to be the main contributor to electricity generation in Bulgaria and despite rapid growth rates of renewable energy, it is expected to account for around 80 percent of electricity generation in Bulgaria in 2024. 34. The energy sector will be among the sectors in Bulgaria that will be affected by climate change. Bulgaria is already exposed to a variety of natural hazards, including floods, droughts, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. Increased temperatures, reduced precipitation, changes in river flows and ecosystems and extreme events have caused some damage and disruption to the energy sector. In recent years, extreme weather events have caused some damage and disruption to the energy sector, which has knock-on consequences for other sectors. However, these events have not significantly affected energy infrastructure to date and have mostly led to damages in the electricity grid and temporary power cuts. An increase in the frequency and intensity of such weather events is likely to pose challenges to the sector in the future. 35. Energy infrastructure is vulnerable to a range of climate stressors, including temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and extreme events. Specifically, climate change is expected to change the intensity, frequency, and distribution of extreme heat, precipitation, and storms, exacerbating the vulnerability of energy infrastructure. Climate change risks and --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 11 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan vulnerabilities for each of the elements of the energy system in Bulgaria are identified in the energy sector assessment report as follows: Primary energy supply  Coal production  Damage to infrastructure and equipment. Heavy precipitation may present risks to operations and damage infrastructure and equipment that result in interruption to production. Mine site conditions can be affected through increased risk of flooding, subsidence, landslides, soil erosion, and changing groundwater levels.  Reduced coal quality. Precipitation increases, and flooding may lead to reduced coal quality through higher moisture content of opencast mining.  Increased risk of heat stress for outdoor workers. With predicted increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, weather-related heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to occupational health and safety.  Extraction and supply of natural gas:  In recent years climate change, has increase the fire risk, especially in periods with high temperatures and summer droughts in croplands, semi-mountainous and mountainous regions, which increases the external risks to the gas transmission system. There is a risk of a possible interruption of natural gas supplies indefinitely, with an expected impact on neighboring countries, especially if the transmission infrastructure to third countries is affected.  Floods can also cause significant disturbances in the gas and gas distribution infrastructure and their components: pipelines, compressor stations, gas distribution stations. Electricity generation  Nuclear and thermal power plants  Reduced efficiency of power plants. Power plants will experience some reduction in output as higher air and water temperatures affect the efficiency of their cooling systems. An increase in ambient temperature results in a decrease in the difference between ambient and combustion temperature, reducing the efficiency of gensets, boilers, and turbines.  Availability of water for cooling. Due to increased drought risk and greater competition for water resources, some power plants may face reduced ability to abstract and discharge cooling water.  Damage to infrastructure. Warming temperatures may create favorable conditions for some invasive species that can damage energy infrastructure. Rozov Kladenets and Ovcharitsa lakes (the cooling lakes of the three largest TPPs in Bulgaria) offer highly suitable conditions for eutrophication and development of invasive species, and climate change may aggravate these problems.  Renewable energy --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 12 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Uncertainty of power generation. Hydropower generation is likely to suffer from reduced precipitation, particularly in the summer season. River flow will change because of changes in precipitation patterns and the reduced snow and ice cover in mountainous regions.  Decreased efficiency of solar and wind power generation. In general, solar power generation can be vulnerable to increased cloud cover associated with increased rainfall. For wind power systems, changes in wind patterns and intensity due to climate change could affect the productivity of existing wind farms. In addition, extreme stormy conditions can damage wind turbines and potentially cause shut down. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 13 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Supply/demand balance  Shift in energy demand. Climate change may change energy requirements for residential and industrial cooling and heating, the timing and magnitude of peak demand, and adjustments in energy consumption for transportation, construction, and agricultural activities.  Electricity transmission and distribution  Damage to infrastructure and disruptions. This includes (a) likelihood of more damage and disruptions to transmission lines from extreme precipitation, floods, and winter storms; (b) increasing threats to functioning of infrastructure in mountainous areas by an increased frequency and intensity of natural hazards (such as landslides, rock falls, or floods) mostly linked to increasing ambient temperature; (c) effects on efficiency of electricity transmission from increased frequency of heat waves; and (d) higher likelihood of power lines hanging below the minimum distance from the ground required by law, caused by warmer temperatures.  Heating production and distribution  Reduced need for heating. Increasing temperatures due to climate change may gradually reduce the need for heating. 36. In conclusion, changes in climate and weather extremes will affect the energy sector both positively and negatively, though negative impacts prevail. This means that climate change is a substantial energy security concern not only due to direct impacts on infrastructure and distribution but also because of consequent impacts on other sectors and issues including food security and health. However, it should also be noted that a conclusion of the Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Assessment of Bulgaria’s Economic Sectors (MoEW 2014) is that the energy sector is ‘extremely resilient’ to expected impacts in the period until 2035. The high resilience of the energy infrastructure to climate change is because it is relatively well-planned and maintained.

1.2.4. Forestry 37. Forested areas in Bulgaria occupy about one-third of the country territory, amounting to 4.230 million ha, of which 3.864 million ha are forests. The standing wood volume of forests in Bulgaria has almost tripled from the 1960s and now amounts to about 680 million m3. Bulgarian forests have outstanding biodiversity with the vascular flora alone consisting of 4,102 species. In economic terms, the annual contribution by forestry, logging, and furniture production is approximately €500 million (EUROSTAT and European Sector Monitor of Wood Processing and Furniture Industry). About 43,000 people are employed in the forestry sector and in some rural areas, it is the main driver of economic output. 38. Climate change projections for increases in temperature, warmer winters, and more summer droughts along with greater number and magnitude of extreme climate events, such as heat waves and cold spells, severe storms, wet snow, and ice accumulation, will reduce forest health and tree growth, increase attacks from insects and fungi, including invasive species and cause serious losses due to fires and storm-related damages. There is already evidence of impacts on the forestry sector in Bulgaria from these types of climate events. In future these --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 14 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan could contribute to very high economic losses, degradation of the ability of forests to sequester carbon and affect the quality of life in Bulgaria by reducing the delivery of valued ecosystem services. 39. According to one study, wood growth could be reduced by 3.5 million m3 per year (Kostov and Raffailova 2009). This is equivalent to 42 percent of the annual harvest and would have a devastating effect on the primary production of forest products and the rural economy. Impact of a similar scale could be expected on the forests’ ability to protect drinking water supplies, attenuate extreme rainfall and flooding, stabilize vulnerable soils and slopes, facilitate a growing recreation and tourism sector, capture carbon, and support a rich resource of natural biodiversity. 40. Climate change is a potential driver of significant changes in the forests of Bulgaria and while their interactions and combined effects are complex, the main vulnerabilities include the following:  Species-specific physiological responses to modified temperature and precipitation regime and inability to respond to changing climatic conditions. Some species may lack the adaptability to cope with new climate conditions and thus, become locally or globally extinct or suffer serious growth and health problems.  Uncertainties for the interaction between species. Related to species-specific responses are the uncertainties for the interaction between species such as competition for resources, which is one of the main drivers of forest dynamics and composition in conditions of modified climate. There is high probability that some species may lose their growth advantage compared to other species which in turn may seriously modify forest composition and, in the long-term, productivity and other related ecosystem services served by the specific forests.  Large areas with coniferous plantations at too low elevations and related to this, the potential for growth decline and various health problems. This vulnerability is an effect of the large-scale afforestation in the 20th century. While the plantations often served their primary goal to help in the control of erosion processes, in the last decades, there were numerous mortality waves, which were attributed to the combined negative effects of drought, aging, and lack of possibilities for regular thinning.  Increased probabilities of large fires and other disturbances such as windthrows, damages from wet snow and ice, attacks from insects. This is potentially the most important factor for forests given the fact that natural disturbances often lead to dramatic changes in forest structure and environment. While in natural conditions, such temporal dynamics in forest composition and structure are often a part of the overall forest dynamics, new climatic conditions may lead to completely different species compositions and, therefore, ecosystems over a relatively short time period. In addition to the general environmental impact, natural disturbances often cause huge losses due to loss of wood, high cost of recovery measures, or the need to sell salvaged wood at very low prices.  Improved conditions for invasive species with high potential for considerable damages to forests. Future climate changes may provide better opportunity for these --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 15 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan species to migrate and increase their distribution and thus, hinder local species. This is potentially a very high risk for habitats which are rare and in marginal locations.  High prevalence of firewood as a timber product that contributes little economic value to the economic sustainability of the sector and its ability to self-fund resilience actions and sequester carbon. 41. Bulgarian forest ecosystems are very important for the country and well-being of the society. They are highly diverse and productive. However, despite the serious efforts already undertaken to prepare for CCA, there are several groups of vulnerabilities of the forestry sector that are priorities for action, as listed earlier.

1.2.5. Human health 42. Human health can be influenced by a great number of weather-related manifestations linked to climate change. Climate change in Bulgaria is manifested by an increase in the average annual air and water temperatures, an increase in heatwaves and cold spells, a change in the annual rainfall, an increase in heavy rainfalls, increases in extreme weather events (windstorms, cyclones, floods, and droughts), and changes in intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation. All these changes affect health in a complex and individual way, depending on various socioeconomic, health, personal, and other factors. 43. In general, the health effects can be differentiated as primary and secondary. Primary effects directly affect human health, for example, through heat waves and cold spells, UV radiation, and floods. Secondary effects indirectly affect human health through other climate- influenced factors such as pollen, vector-borne diseases, fires, contaminated food, water, and air, and compromised crops. The primary and secondary health effects of climate change can be differentiated into the following groups: heat-related morbidity and mortality, extreme weather-related morbidity and mortality, cardiovascular diseases, including strokes, asthma, respiratory allergies and airway diseases, cancer, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, foodborne diseases and nutrition factors, waterborne diseases, mental health and stress-related disorders, and neurological diseases and disorders. 44. Key future vulnerabilities for Bulgaria outlined in the sector assessment report are as follows:  Temperature- and humidity-related health effects. These include expected increases in number of deaths from cardiovascular diseases and strokes in the big cities in summer due to heatwaves and the urban heat island effect; vector-borne morbidity; and Campylobacteriosis infections; respiratory diseases due to the higher impact of CO2, dust, and PM in the warmer air; and allergic diseases due to earlier flowering and increased concentration of pollen, spores, and other allergens in the air (based on the study by Mihaylova 2014).  Emergency weather-related health effects. These include expected increases in mortality due to extreme weather events and fires, with that increase being higher among vulnerable groups, waterborne and foodborne morbidity due to damaged infrastructure, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (based on the study by Mihaylova 2014). --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 16 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Change in precipitation-related health effects. These include expected increases in incidence of Cryptosporidiosis and Campylobacteriosis due to a combination of more frequent precipitation and higher annual average temperatures, and diarrheal infections caused by non-cholera vibrio due to more abundant precipitation and higher levels of humidity, as well as of the higher water temperature of the Black Sea. 45. It is stressed, however, that assessing health outcomes in relation to climate change is a complex task that must accommodate the multiple types of uncertainty including those related to GHG emissions scenarios, data limitation, and models of the relationships between climate and health. Thus, it is necessary to deepen the knowledge and assessment of the manifestations of climate change in Bulgaria, and the mechanisms of their impact on human health. 46. It is further noted that climate-related health impacts disproportionately affect the more vulnerable groups of the population, in particular, children and adults, people with chronic illnesses, people with a low socioeconomic status, those living in poverty and those with harmful personal habits (use of alcohol, drugs, and tobacco). Indicators of the most vulnerable groups over recent decades show that the country is in a less favorable position than many other EU countries. 47. Health vulnerability to climate change may also be exacerbated as a consequence of some features of the health sector including infrastructure and structure, and the understanding and competencies of health personnel on the impact of climate change on human health. Therefore, the severity of healthy impacts resulting from the risks outlined earlier will depend on the capacity of the public health sector to address these conditions and prepare for them, as well as on factors such as individuals’ behavior, age, gender and socioeconomic status, and location.

1.2.6. Tourism 48. International tourism in Bulgaria generates an estimated US$2.4 billion, and the tourism sector employs 11.1 percent of the national workforce (in 2015)4. The major market for tourism is the EU, and the main tourism product is coastal summer tourism in the Dobrich, Burgas and Varna regions of the Black Sea. An estimated 95 percent of all revenues from international tourism originate from seaside resorts, where arrivals peak in July and August. Winter tourism is less relevant for the national economy and caters mostly to domestic tourism. 49. Weather and climate have considerable importance for tourism. Climate is a key factor defining a destination’s attractiveness, also influencing the timing of holidays, as well as tourist activity choices and expenditures. On holidays, weather conditions in the destination determine trip satisfaction. Adverse weather experiences, including heat waves, cold spells, heavy rainfall, storms, or changes in natural tourism assets, such as lack of snow, can all have negative repercussions for tourist perceptions of a destination and willingness to return. 50. Due to its spatially concentrated, weather-dependent, and highly seasonal character, tourism in Bulgaria is vulnerable to climate change. Extreme events that have been observed in the past are expected to become more frequent under scenarios of climate change, including heat waves, intense rainfall events, coastal flooding, and storms. Winter tourism is already 4 World Travel and Tourism Council --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 17 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan suffering from higher temperatures and in the short- to medium-term future, ski areas are likely to become increasingly economically unviable; in the long-term future, summer temperatures are expected to exceed biophysically acceptable threshold levels, while sea-level rise and flooding will cause the loss of coastal areas. Climate change may also become indirectly relevant for tourism, in particular, through increased resource scarcity (in particular, fresh water) and a growing energy demand, for example, for air-conditioning. 51. Climate change thus poses various short- and longer-term threats to tourism in Bulgaria, even though warmer temperatures earlier and later in the year may make the country more attractive in the shoulder season (between high and low season). The main risks related to expected climate change and extreme weather events faced by the Bulgarian tourism sector can be summarized as follows:  Lower number of tourists. A combination of climate change-related trends, including higher temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and increased precipitation and humidity may cause lower number of tourists.  Shorter winter season. Winter season can be expected to continue to shrink due to shorter snow cover period as well as other factors such as higher risks of avalanches.  Shorter average stay. This may result from a combination of factors including higher temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and increased precipitation and humidity.  Health problems with tourists. This particularly refers to the summer season when there will be more risk of heat and sun strokes, high blood pressure issues, and so on.  Poorer conditions for outdoor recreation. This is related to higher precipitation and humidity as well as extreme weather events.  Damage of tourist infrastructure and superstructure. This is particularly resulting from extreme weather events including increasing winds and storms, floods, avalanches, and landslides.  Poorer access to tourist destinations. This is particularly resulting from extreme weather events including floods, avalanches, and landslides.  Water shortages. Tourism contributes to high water demand in water scarce areas, which will further aggravate the problem. Higher temperatures and increased drought frequency will contribute to increasing water needs in tourist areas and may impact the tourism experience and deter visitors. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 18 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 52. The opportunities can be seen in the following:  Longer summer and shoulder seasons. In particular, prolonged summer season for seaside tourism and shoulder seasons for all tourism types may result from higher temperatures.  Development of new tourism products. Among these are various types of cultural tourism (historic, archaeological, special route tourism); wine and culinary tourism; and special events (for example, festivals).  Attracting new perspective tourism markets. For example, this may include developing the market segment of elderly and retired people visiting outside the peak tourist seasons and developing new destinations.  Less need for heating energy in winter and shoulder seasons. This is linked to higher temperature trends but needs to be balanced with need for higher energy for cooling systems in summer. 53. It should also be noted that the vulnerability of tourism to climate change has considerable uncertainties. For instance, there is inadequate understanding of how travelers react to extreme events such as heat waves, storms, or heavy rainfall events, and longer-term changes in average temperatures, and how these climate factors may impact choices of tourism activities, or cause demand shifts to different destinations or changes in the timing of holidays.

1.2.7. Transport 54. The main transport modes, in terms of infrastructure and services, in Bulgaria are road and railway, followed by water and air transport. Road transport is by far the most important mode of passenger transport with cars and buses having a total share of 96 percent in 2015, followed by railway transport, which has a share of only 3.6 percent (in terms of number of passenger trips). 55. The most significant past impacts on the infrastructure from weather-related events in Bulgaria have come from floods and landslides. The most vulnerable infrastructure is the national road network, including the municipal transport infrastructure (streets and roads), and public transport services. Although no comprehensive data exist for all transport subsectors, it is estimated that annual average costs for damaged transport infrastructure, due to climate- related catastrophic events, are in the range of BGN 115–135 million. This does not include social costs, such as loss of human life, or impacts on the wider economy caused by these damages. 56. In the medium to long term, the most important risks for the Bulgarian transport system expected as a result of anticipated climate change are concluded to be the following in the sector assessment report:  Floods. The frequency and impact of floods are expected to increase under all climate change scenarios. Floods cause heavy damage to road and railway infrastructure by deteriorating the subbase layers of the road or railway structures. Water may undermine the subbase leading to catastrophic failure of the engineering structures.  Landslides. Precipitation is a major factor in the development of landslides and although the total annual volumes of precipitation are projected to decrease, landslides --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 19 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan will continue to be a serious problem due to expected higher frequency of extreme precipitations. Landslides cause heavy damage to road and railway infrastructure and river banks. These may be the reason for long-lasting disruption of operation and restricted accessibility to specific population and/or economic areas.  Blizzards and snowfall. In the long term, the annual volumes of snowfall are projected to decrease, but in the short-term and midterm perspective, blizzards and intense snowfall will continue to be a major source of disruptions to the services of all modes of transport. The northern and northeastern regions are particularly prone to winter traffic disruptions due to high speed winds and snowfall.  Extreme heat. Extreme heat affects roads’ asphalt concrete pavements by softening their binding component—bitumen. This decreases the bearing capacity of the pavement and combined with the traffic load, leads to its deformation and to formation of ruts, which increases road accident risks. Furthermore, the combination of high heat and sunlight is the reason for surface cracks and reduces road pavement life. Regarding the railway infrastructure, extreme heat may cause rail buckling, which at its turn, leads to the need of reduction of the maximum admissible operational speed or even disruption of operation and reduces the life of the rails. Extreme heat combined with more expected droughts will further harm the Danube River navigability, which already faces serious deficiencies. 57. Climate change related events are expected to negatively impact all transport sector stakeholders including:  Infrastructure managers due to deterioration, damage, and even temporary closures of infrastructure sections and/or nodes;  Transport operators due to higher operation costs and possible disruption of operations;  Transport users due to delays, longer transit times, and discomfort during the trip; and  End consumers/society due to higher costs for the transport infrastructure and operations. This also includes potential losses of business, contracts, and customers due to supply chain disruptions. 58. It should be noted, however, that the National Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for the Sectors of the Bulgarian Economy (MoEW 2014) evaluates the transport sector as extremely resilient for the period up to 2035. This is due firstly, to the expected moderate climate change to 2035 and secondly, to the transport system being designed and constructed with consideration of the local climate conditions. Nevertheless, the adaptive capacity of the sector is assessed as insufficient.

1.2.8. Urban environment 59. In 2017, the urban population in Bulgaria was 5,181,755 or 73.5 percent of the total with about 45.6 percent of the urban population concentrated in six big cities. Despite projections for overall population decline, the urban population is expected to reach 81 percent of total population by 2050. This urban concentration creates pressure on land, infrastructure, and --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 20 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan services and exposes more people to disaster risks due to greater concentration of vulnerable groups. 60. The analysis of past and present weather events shows that the Bulgarian cities have experienced temperature average annual temperature increase and increased number of days with intensive precipitation, often accompanied by wind storms or hail and associated with a growing number of floods which have caused considerable damage over the recent years. Among extreme weather events, floods and landslides have caused the highest financial damages during the period 2010–2015. 61. Method for assessing future risks. Considering the complexity of urban environment and the variety of urban settings in the current analysis, cities are systematized into three groups according to their population— big, medium, and small—and into four groups, according to their location—coastal (on Danube River and Black Sea coast), plain areas, mountainous, and semi-mountainous areas. The vulnerability of the urban environment is also considered according to their development pattern, zoning, and specific land use. 62. There are a wide range of likely interlinked impacts in urban areas from future climate events. These include damage to buildings and urban infrastructures, health effects, endangered key services including food supply and electricity, reduced mobility and accessibility and water stress, as well as increased financial pressures on municipalities for maintenance of infrastructure and on emergency aid facilities and staff. Overall, climate change will have a larger-scale impact in big cities. More vulnerable to extreme weather events will be their central urban areas with higher density, intensive traffic, reduced green and open spaces, and old infrastructure with limited capacity. Extreme weather events will also affect more significantly vulnerable groups including those living below the poverty line, in poor standard housing, the homeless, the elderly, and the sick. 63. The main findings of the analysis and assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability given in the sector assessment report are as follows: Extreme temperatures  Higher temperatures leading to the formation of heat islands, which will occur more often and will last longer, will have the greatest impact on big cities with increased density and intensity of construction.  Extremely low temperatures and cold waves are not expected to occur frequently but can last for several consecutive days and affect life in both big and small mountain cities. When combined with abundant snowfall, they can endanger vital services, including food supply. Intense precipitation  Flooding will increase in frequency and affect all settlements and cause damages in both big cities and small towns. The most vulnerable will be those housing areas located near watercourses and the neighborhoods of large cities, built illegally on their periphery in flood-prone zones.  Hailstorms, which are often combined with intensive precipitations, will also cause floods in cities and damage buildings, cars, public transport, and infrastructure. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 21 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Prolonged precipitation, combined with a rise in groundwater levels or wastewater seepage and some additional human factors, will trigger landslides, especially those in the most sensitive areas of the Black Sea and Danube cities. Additional aggravating factors in this respect include abrasion and erosion.  Landslides can also be provoked by earthquakes, typical of the country. Although earthquakes are not related to climate change, their large impact on the urban environment and people’s lives should be considered in the adaptation process. Water resource scarcity  High temperatures combined with droughts will increase water stress in settlements where there is water scarcity and obsolete networks that lose large amounts of water. 64. The above conclusions demonstrate that the urban environment in Bulgaria is vulnerable and at considerable risk from future climate change. These risks are exacerbated by the obsolete and often inadequate infrastructure in big and small settlements alike and the large proportion of aging population, predominantly with low-income and below the poverty line. This vulnerability is increased by a poor level of awareness of the problems, their causes, and possible prevention and management, among both decision makers and the general public.

1.2.9. Water 65. The water sector as defined here includes both managed water systems (water supply and sanitation, hydro-melioration,5 hydropower, and industrial use) and natural water systems. Bulgaria’s total long-term annual renewable water resources amount to 21.3 km3, of which 20.4 km3 is accounted for as surface water and 0.9 km3 as net groundwater resources. The area covered by surface freshwater bodies accounts proximately 2,000 km2, which is less than 2 percent of the country’s territory. While Bulgaria has relatively significant freshwater resources compared to other European countries, water resources are unevenly distributed throughout the country and by season. 66. Climate change is expected to have a significant effect on the hydrology of rivers. For some river basin management regions, total annual discharge rates are projected to drop by approximately 10 percent over a period of 30 years in comparison to the reference period 1976– 2005. Significant shifts are expected in the seasonal distribution of rivers’ runoff. While in winter and spring there will be an increase, summer and autumn river discharge rates are expected to decline. Groundwater availability is not expected to change significantly. Past and present weather events and trends including serious droughts and floods since 2000 have already impacted the water sector with physical evidence of the impairment of water sector infrastructure due to floods (2004 to 2008) given in the sector assessment report. 67. The conclusions of the Water Sector Assessment Report for climate change risk and vulnerabilities are as follows:  Flood and drought hazards are identified as most relevant to the water sector. Higher flood risks concern the entire country, while higher droughts risk concern regions with projected water scarcity. Based on projections that climate change will not affect 5 Hydro-melioration includes irrigation of agricultural crops, drainage of agricultural land, and flood protection of agricultural land. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 22 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan groundwater availability and projected decline of Bulgaria’s population and slow growth of industrial and agricultural activities, there is a lower scarcity risk in regions which use groundwater. High scarcity risk is likely in regions supplied with surface water and having high tourism activities, which are projected to increase.  The Black Sea region appears to be the most vulnerable to scarcity risk because it uses surface water and is the most visited by tourists. Poor condition of the infrastructure in this region adds another dimension toward increasing the risk.  Key vulnerabilities to these climate hazards (and their effect on water scarcity) are: o State and preparedness of the infrastructure - Overwhelmed, aging, poorly maintained infrastructure, and therefore, highly vulnerable and most probably inadequate to cope with climate change. o Preparedness of the human factor, operator, or user - Population and operators of infrastructure lack historical experience and good practices with floods and droughts, and therefore, are highly vulnerable. o Hydropower production systems – vulnerable to operation during droughts o Water services (water supply, sanitation, melioration) - vulnerable during droughts  Major risks to managed systems are therefore o Risks to infrastructure and services: damage, improper operation, and low-level or insufficient services o Risks to hydroelectric-generation from low or high river flows  Major risks to natural systems are to impaired biodiversity resulting from both floods and droughts.

1.3. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Interrelationships Between Economic Sectors 68. As outlined in Section 1.2, climate change risks and vulnerabilities affect a wide range of economic sectors. These risks and vulnerabilities should also be understood in terms of the complex interrelationships and interdependencies between economic sectors. In particular, specific risks may create cascading impacts across different sectors. For example, a major flood can cause direct damages to crop, transportation, energy, and other infrastructure, which may then affect other sectors such as tourism and contribute to an increase of food and transportation prices. 69. There is also a spatial dimension to these interrelationships since climate change impacts and consequences affect different parts of the country in a different manner. Thus, understanding the spatial distribution of climate change risks is important in developing appropriate and effective local adaptation strategies. Moreover, climate change also affects people differently depending on their social, cultural, and economic background, for example, agricultural sector workers and vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and low-income people, are more likely to feel the effects of climate change. 70. Key interrelationships of climate change risks and vulnerabilities between sectors are outlined in the following paragraphs (rather than sector linkages in context of adaptation --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 23 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan options). These include both the possible consequent impacts on other sectors from the risks and vulnerabilities of a particular sector and impacts from other sectors on that sector. A key cross-cutting issue for all sectors is the vulnerability to extreme weather events and the need to develop resilience and preparedness through disaster risk management (DRM). 71. Cross-cutting issues, tradeoffs, and synergies of adaptation options between economic sectors are discussed in more detail in Section 4.3. Further detailed analysis of sector interdependencies in the context of climate change vulnerabilities, opportunities, and adaptation options is given in the sector assessment reports (Annex 2).

1.3.1. Agriculture 72. Climate change vulnerability and risk in the agricultural sector encompasses a wide range of cross-sectoral issues related to water and energy supply, air and soil quality, land use, biodiversity, and forestry. These include the consequences for other sectors of direct damages to crops and livestock production from extreme weather events and gradual changes in climate. For example, these impacts may contribute to an increase in food prices that then affects both on the macro-economy and on specific sectors such as public health and tourism. There may also be effects on the demand for other sector goods and services, for example, higher temperatures that cause stress to animals would increase the need for energy for cooling. Fisheries are closely related to tourism through recreational activities linked to water and fishing. The climate change impacts on fisheries will affect the activities concerning the tourism, including provision of additional jobs and income for local fishermen. 73. Impacts on the agricultural sector resulting from climate change impacts on other sectors include damage from extreme weather events to transportation, energy, and water infrastructure resulting in disruption of supply for agricultural production. Loss of biodiversity and changes in ecosystems may have direct effects on crop and animal breeding. 74. Specific threats are also interlinked across sectors and require coordinated actions to manage and protect farmlands, as well as forests and ecosystems. For example, pests and diseases pose a significant risk to the agriculture, forestry, and biodiversity sectors. Soil degradation also has negative impacts on both agriculture and forestry.

1.3.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 75. BD&ES are strongly linked to vulnerability and risk assessments in other sectors. due to the universal nature of ecosystem services that are being used in all sectors. The majority of regulating services act as significant final ecosystem services - climate regulation, flood regulation, erosion regulation, hazard regulation, or contribute to other final ecosystem services - water quantity and quality, purification (air, water and soil quality). Some regulating services are also intermediate ecosystem services - pollination and regulation of pests and diseases, for example, are essential for the provision of crops, medicinal plants and livestock. Key threats to other sectors from loss of biodiversity and deterioration of ecosystems services include loss of crop yield in agriculture, due to declines in pollination, reduced pest and disease control and soil formation, less genetic diversity, and loss of regulating ecosystem services. Any decline or --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 24 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan loss of these services is likely to result in additional costs for irrigation, fertilization of soils, and possibly for crop and cultivated tree species. 76. DRM and transport are also affected by loss of regulating ecosystem services, which leads to reduced disaster resilience and may cause additional costs for protection from wind, avalanches, landslides, floods, and other extreme events. The water and energy sectors are likely to be mainly affected by the decline or loss in provisioning services related to water production and regulating services related to purification (related to forest and other ecosystems). 77. Forests are an important ecosystem type due to their rich biodiversity and are of great importance to society not only from an environmental perspective, but also from a social and economic one. Forests are home to the very large number of vertebrates, and are habitat for many different plants, insects, and invertebrates species. Forests provide important regulating ecosystem services such as water supply regulation, soils protection, erosion prevention and climate regulation. They are also a very important basis for provisioning ecosystem services such as wood, medicinal plants and game. Forests also provide important social and cultural services, including recreation and tourism. Because forests are an important ecosystem type, the risks of loss of biodiversity in the forestry sector are strongly related to risks to biodiversity in general. Loss of biodiversity in other related ecosystems, such as freshwater and wetlands, may also negatively affect the forests. Tourism may also be negatively influenced by the loss of cultural ecosystem services. 78. The urban environment and human health sectors are likely to be affected by the loss of a wide range of regulating ecosystem services and recreational cultural services. Particularly, the decline in microclimate regulation6 to mitigate heat waves and alleviate smog and reduced recreation options are likely to negatively affect both general well-being and health of urban population. In addition, the regulating services for protection from floods and other disaster protection are relevant for the urban sector as well as the rural population.

1.3.3. Energy 79. The energy sector also has strong interdependencies with other sectors, due to their reliance on energy supply and the various resource requirements from other sectors of the energy sector. 80. Disruption of power supply from extreme events may impact all sectors including transport services, urban environment, and health. Damaged energy infrastructure can also cause damage to other infrastructures including transport. Gradual climate changes will also impact seasonal demand for energy for heating and cooling, with supply costs consequences for all sectors. 81. In terms of resource requirements, the energy sector is in competition for water resources with other sectors (as outlined earlier). Use of fuelwood as a cheap energy source is also vulnerable to climate change impacts in forests. Any such disruption in energy source supply caused by climate factors may impact electricity costs for all sectors. 6 Ecosystems change the microclimate in their location through the processes of evapotranspiration, mediation of smells and air purification. These regulating services are used, for example, for reducing the heat island effect and improving the living environment in the urban green infrastructure. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 25 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 82. Opportunities for the energy sector from climate change also exist in particular, for increased use of solar and wind sources with consequent environmental benefits as well as potential cost benefits for consumers.

1.3.4. Forestry 83. Interlinkages between forestry and other sectors relate in particular to the ecosystem services provided by forests. These include maintaining biodiversity and genetic diversity, and thus, the integrity and resilience of ecosystems and provision of drinking water which highly depends on the condition of forests. Positive effects for the agriculture sector come from forest shelterbelts which decrease wind erosion and help uniform snow deposition, and thus increase crop productivity, contributing to the maintenance of biodiversity. Forests provide a source of renewable energy (although fuelwood contributes to air pollution) and have an important carbon sequestration function. Other cross-sectoral links include positive human health effects from ecosystem services as well as negative health effects through air pollution from forest fires. Provision of forest landscapes is also beneficial for tourism. Thus, any change or disruption in these forest ecosystem services and the health status of forest tree species resulting from climate change will affect a number of sectors.

1.3.5. Human health 84. Other sectors play an important role in determining the risks of disease and injury resulting from climate change. These can be risks of primary health effects from extreme weather events, such as from storms and floods, which are influenced by preparedness of infrastructure of other sectors including water supply and sanitation, agriculture, energy, and transport. The risks can also be from secondary effects through other climatic-influenced factors such as vector-borne diseases, contaminated food, and water and air quality. For example, water pollution may be influenced by reduced water levels. 85. There may also be implications for other sectors resulting from climate change effect on health and well-being. Workers’ productivity may decrease in higher temperatures and there may be increased heat-related health and safety risks for workers in the energy, transport, agriculture, and other sectors. Effects on tourism may be negative due to increased heat-related health risks but a longer summer season may have health benefits through providing more options for outside activities. A combination of such health effects may also put more pressure on urban health and social services.

1.3.6. Tourism 86. Tourism sector interdependencies concern the reliance on infrastructure and services of other sectors, and the competition for resources with other sectors. Extreme weather events that damage infrastructure and disrupt services of transport, water, and energy sectors will also affect tourism. Additionally, extreme weather events and gradual climatic changes that affect forest landscapes, biodiversity, and agriculture will also influence the demand for different types of tourism and tourist destinations in Bulgaria. Increased risks of damage to cultural and heritage sites from extreme weather events may affect tourism, especially in the urban environment. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 26 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 87. Gradual climatic changes, particularly higher temperatures, may result in longer seasons, more visitors and higher revenues in some locations. However, such changes in tourism numbers may then lead to increased demand for transport, water and energy, more competition for water resources with other sectors, and increased pressure on infrastructures including wastewater collection. Moreover, any increase in unsustainable forms of tourism can contribute to overexploitation of ecosystem services in tourist/recreation sites.

1.3.7. Transport 88. The transport sector interdependencies concern the reliance of other sectors on transport infrastructure and services, the resource requirements of the transport sector and other functions and impacts of transport infrastructure. 89. All sectors depend on transport systems to carry workforce, while agricultural and other produce distribution and tourism is also highly dependent on transport. Therefore, any damage to transport infrastructure from extreme weather events may hinder these activities as well as hamper access to other infrastructure in emergencies. Specific impacts may include lower river levels due to more frequent/severe drought that will affect river transport. 90. The transport sector is dependent on the energy infrastructure for fuel and electricity supply. It also depends on information and communication technology (ICT) networks for the management of services and transport infrastructure. 91. Transport infrastructure also performs other functions, such as access and monitoring of fire events and limitation of erosion and landslides, which may be of increased benefit for protection against future climate change vulnerabilities. It is also linked to BD&ES in both positive (for example, creating migration routes) and negative ways (for example, ecosystem fragmentation and spread of invasive alien species [IAS]). The link to human health can also be positive (for example, more potential for healthier mobility options such as walking and cycling in warmer seasons) or negative (for example, deteriorated air quality due to transport emissions under changed thermal and humidity conditions).

1.3.8. Urban environment 92. The urban environment has complex interdependencies with other sectors due to the cross-cutting nature of this sector, its reliance on key infrastructure and services for its efficient functioning, and the wide impact on other sectors of urban environment functioning. 93. Extreme weather events may damage infrastructure and disrupt services of urban transport, water, and energy sectors. This may also result in higher construction and maintenance costs for these infrastructures. Tourism would also be affected by these weather events including by the endangerment of cultural attractions in cities. Higher temperatures and increased dry spells will also lead to increased water consumption in urban areas and, therefore, increased competition for water resources with other sectors. Temperature increases in summer would increase demand for energy for cooling systems and warmer winter temperatures would reduce demand for energy for heating. These climatic changes may also provide incentives for sustainable urban transport modes, for example, cycling, walking, and boost city tourism. Health implications from climate change in cities arise from the increased intensity of heat islands and increased air pollution at higher temperature. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 27 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 94. Other linkages of the urban environment include that to biodiversity, in its role as a habitat for a variety of species, and to agricultural due to the extension of urbanized areas envisaged in Spatial Development Plans and the move toward urban agriculture. Thus, the climate change vulnerabilities of these sectors also need to be taken into account in future urban planning.

1.3.9. Water 95. The water sector has strong interdependencies with other sectors, in particular, regarding water supply to these sectors. Reduced water availability from extreme weather events and gradual climate changes can cause competition between sectors such as urban environment (drinking water), agriculture (irrigation), energy (power generation), and tourism (drinking water and activities requiring water). Competition for water resources with irrigation infrastructure can also decrease the resilience of ecosystems services including in forests. 96. Failures in water infrastructures (supply and sewerage systems, irrigation) may also damage other sector infrastructure, such as transport and disrupt services including in urban environments. Health impacts can also occur due to insufficient water supply, water pollution from heavy rains, and invasion of harmful water species.

1.4. Macroeconomic Consequences of Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction and Action 97. The Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis Report (as listed in Annex 4) evaluates the economic implications of climate change impacts in Bulgaria and highlights the costs of inaction and economic aspects of the choice of adaptation options. The analysis estimates overall economic activity (that is, GDP), economic welfare, sectoral output, and employment levels, with and without climate adaptation. This was achieved by developing the first integrated assessment model on climate change adaptation in Bulgaria. This model explicitly links a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with several environmental modules7 that represent climate change impacts on land, and water resources (for methodological details and assumptions, see the Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis Report, Appendix 11 to this strategy). 98. The CGE model simulations included development of (a) an economic baseline to 2050 that does not account for climate change and its impacts, (b) adjustments to these baseline projections for the estimated impacts of climate change, and (c) additional scenarios to illustrate potential net gains from CCA. 99. The economic baseline without climate change was developed based on the observed economic trends as well as demographic projections and migration trends for the country and assumes the Bulgarian economy will grow 1.3 times by 2050, or an annual average growth rate of around 1.7 percent per year. It is important to note that the economic baseline does not integrate existing or planned sectoral strategies or reforms; it simply translates the growth potential based on the demand and supply projections for various sectors and sub-regions. 7 The CGE model was developed using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling framework and database. It was further tailored to the Bulgarian context by developing a water- and land-use module to allow estimation of the impact from climate change at a granular level, both from a sectoral point of view and from a geographic point of view (that is, based on Bulgaria’s four water basins). --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 28 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 100. The baseline growth with climate change scenario was developed with a focus on those areas where climate change is expected to have the most significant impacts.8 The macroeconomic analysis was developed on the basis of two climate scenarios—a 2°C (optimistic) and 4°C (pessimistic) temperature change over Bulgaria by 2050. Each climate scenario was also tested for high and low vulnerability assumptions in each sector (in terms of sensitivity to climate change and ability to adapt). Climate change can directly (or indirectly) affect the cost and availability of economic outputs and inputs, which influences the level and structure of overall economic activity. The loss in real GDP growth in 2050, compared with the baseline scenario, was estimated at around 1 percent under the optimistic climate scenario and 3.5 percent under the pessimistic climate scenario. This would mean that the projected GDP annual growth rate of about 1.7 percent by 2050 would be completely cancelled out if Bulgaria faces the full impact of a 2°C rise in temperature by 2050. 101. Considering sector-wide impacts of climate change scenarios in Bulgaria by 2050, the economic analysis concluded that  Climate change induces a direct negative productivity shock on the agricultural sector (represented by crop production) and hence, a decline in output across all scenarios. The output of wheat, grains, and other crops experience the highest negative impacts across all the four river basin management regions in Bulgaria. The Danube River basin, where agricultural productivity is the highest, is the sub region that suffers the most from climate change.  There would be a decline in output of the energy sector in all scenarios considered. This is explained by decreased demand from a contracting economy, reflected as reduced production.  The transport sector also experiences a negative outcome, with overall decline in economic activity (negative GDP changes) accounting for the decline in demand for output for these sectors.  Energy-intensive sectors including chemicals, steel, aluminum, cement, and ceramics have a positive output response driven by positive terms of trade change that helps to drive up export demand which helps to mitigate declining domestic demand. 102. General conclusions for other macroeconomic and social parameters were the following:  Following the impact of climate change in Bulgaria, jobs will move out of those sectors that are negatively impacted.  Climate change will change the overall trade structure of Bulgaria. Thus, there will be an increase in imports of goods whose domestic production is heavily affected by climate change.  Under all climate impact scenarios considered, there would be an economy-wide increase in domestic real prices. Moreover, rising prices for commodities may result in a substantial reduction in real income and an increase in poverty, for households 8 The model represents climate change impacts in the sectors considered the most vulnerable to climate change as per the 2014 Vulnerability Assessment of the Bulgarian Economy: water (modelled offline), agriculture (modelled through damage functions), and tourism (modelled through damage functions). --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 29 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan spending a large share of their income on commodities whose prices rise substantially (including food staples).  In general, earnings from both skilled and unskilled labor will decline in all scenarios. Thus, combined with rising real prices and declining earnings from labor, more people are expected to fall below the poverty line. Under these climate scenarios, it is very likely that there will be more poor people living in Bulgaria by 2050. It is also widely accepted that the impacts of climate change, including from extreme weather-related events, fall disproportionately upon lower-income and more vulnerable groups thus, compounding impacts on these groups from rising prices and declining earnings. 103. The Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis Report also took a welfare approach to help gauge the economic impact of climate change. The welfare approach differs from GDP as it includes private consumption involving goods, services, government purchases, and other variables. Welfare impacts of climate shocks can be further divided into three components—direct impacts, efficiency changes, and terms of trade effects. Welfare losses were estimated for the two core climate scenarios (2°C and 4°C temperature rise by 2050) along with both sets of vulnerability assumptions. The key conclusions from the analysis were the following:  In general, the results suggested that the market effects of climate change will have similar implications for economic welfare and for overall income, spending, and production (GDP).  Direct impact of climate shocks was negative in all scenarios, reflecting the general worsening of production conditions in Bulgaria. The projections suggest that the loss to economic welfare from this direct component will dominate the other two components if temperature rises by 4°C by 2050.  Climate change leads to loss of economic efficiency but this loss is overshadowed by the other two components of welfare.  The impact of climate change on terms of trade and its contribution to national welfare was assessed as not strong enough to outweigh the direct impacts but nonetheless contributing to mitigating some of the welfare losses arising from climate change.  In general, it was concluded that there will be modest structural change following the impact of climate change but that the Bulgarian economy would still be mainly service based. 104. CCA was also explored in the Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis Report. This focused mainly on the appropriate adaptation level to be targeted, overall funding needs, and possible financing mechanisms for Bulgaria that would generate the maximum benefit for society. It did not analyze the details of specific investment projects for adaptation. The analysis used the Bulgaria CGE model and macroeconomic results were given for adaptation to the 2oC (optimistic scenario) and 4oC (pessimistic scenario) to 2050. 105. The emerging messages of the analysis of CCA are summarized as follows:  There are potentially large benefits from adaptation, especially for higher levels of climate change. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 30 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  In terms of resource mobilization, it is possible to finance adaptation domestically via fiscal measures, at little to no costs to the economy. The analysis considers the hypothetical case of a 2 percent contribution levied on consumption goods and finds that it can generate a major part of necessary adaptation funding without hampering the prospects for growth.  External resources, such as structural funds from the European Union, or their successors, or other bi- or multi-lateral mechanisms focused on climate finance, can also be used towards adaptation, in complement of domestic resources.  In terms of allocating adaptation funding, the analysis concludes that orienting adaptation resources across sectors (and not only to the most vulnerable sectors) yields more benefits to the Bulgarian economy and citizens, since it increases availability of capital in productive sectors, with expansion in output and value added, partly outweighing the negative impacts from climate change. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 31 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Chapter 2. Policy and Institutional Context

2.1. Climate Change Awareness and Knowledge Gaps 106. This section presents general conclusions on the state of awareness and understanding of the future consequences of climate change, along with knowledge gaps focusing on research needs in sectors. In general, in Bulgaria, there is increasing awareness on climate change but more limited awareness of specific CCA issues, both among the public and some other stakeholders. At the political and policy making level, a high general awareness of potential future consequences of climate change exists. However, there is considerable uncertainty on how this might be manifested across different sectors. Policy making has been so far mainly concerned with the identification and implementation of climate change mitigation measures and not CCA. The Third NAPCC 2013–2020 outlines a framework for action which is focused on mitigation measures rather than actions for adapting to climate change. Climate change has, so far, received modest attention on the public agenda. 107. In terms of awareness-raising activities, the Ministry of Environment and Water (MoEW), together with its subsidiaries, has a dedicated policy to improve public awareness on environmental issues and ensure public participation in decision-making processes. It also disseminates information on environmental matters to inform decisions and actions. There are several mechanisms for involvement and awareness raising of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), academia, business, and other stakeholders, such as the National Expert Council on Climate Change to the MoEW, created in 2013. A number of initiatives have been developed to raise awareness and public participation during preparation of the National Adaptation Strategy (NAS), including workshops with public authorities, academia, NGOs, and other stakeholders.

2.1.1. Agriculture 108. At present, there is no specific program or initiative on CCA in the agricultural sector. Although climate change in general and its impacts on the agriculture sector is the subject of research of various scientific and research institutes—including the NIMH, the Agricultural Academy, the BAS, and the Institute of Soil Science and Agroecology—there is a lack of systematic studies on the impact of climate change in the Bulgarian agriculture and fisheries sector. The farming community also lacks sufficient information on CCA. Although agricultural associations represent the interests of agricultural businesses and farmers and participate in expert groups and commissions dealing with policy development, specific discussions on climate change effects and CCA are not widespread and many stakeholders are not familiar with climate change impacts on agriculture and have limited knowledge of CCA options and measures. Consequently, farmers lack sufficient information and knowledge about the vulnerabilities of the agricultural sector and the opportunities for changing crops in response to climate trends.

2.1.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 109. There is limited awareness of the increasing environmental threats arising from biodiversity loss and the resulting decline in climate change resilience of ecosystems and societal systems relying on ecosystem services. Information about both climate change and --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 32 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan ecosystems as a complex system is not communicated easily. Furthermore, data gaps in climate and biodiversity models mean that national projections are not sufficiently detailed. Such data gaps inhibit the elaboration of spatially explicit policy recommendations for CCA. As it is cross- sectoral in nature, concerted action is needed to set up consistent monitoring and protect the critical natural capital that provides ecosystem services for CCA. It has to be enacted and implemented consistently in all ecosystems, including those regulated by agricultural, fishery and aquaculture, and forestry legislation.

2.1.3. Energy 110. Both internationally and in Bulgaria, emphasis has been typically placed on the role of the energy sector in mitigating human-induced climate change, with comparatively little attention paid to the impacts of climate change on the energy sector. This has begun to change in the recent years with increased recognition that mitigation and adaptation must be undertaken in tandem.

2.1.4. Forestry 111. Forestry specialists and the higher level of management of the forestry sector in Bulgaria are aware that climate changes are a likely contributing factor to many of the growth and health problems in forests and that future climate changes may cause further problems. At the same time, there is high uncertainty, about what might be the possible consequences for the forestry sector. There is also a general lack of public awareness on the potential deterioration of certain ecosystem services in forests. 112. Key knowledge gaps identified are (a) possible consequences of climate change on the most important tree species, forest types, and priority tree species and habitats for protection; (b) lack of adequate modeling at the country level of potential changes in forests and what actions will improve their ability to adapt; and (c) lack of adequate knowledge and modeling at the country and district levels of the potential biotic and abiotic disturbances and their effects on forests.

2.1.5. Human Health 113. Although, the Bulgarian health sector stakeholders (public, private, and civil society) are aware of climate change and the related human health problems, there is a need for further effective communication on these issues. Moreover, such awareness is not yet very apparent at policy level as, for example, the latest National Action Plan (MoEW 2012) on Climate Change does not cover human health. 114. There is a range of gaps in research of climate change-related diseases including asthma, respiratory allergies and airway diseases, cancer, cardiovascular diseases and strokes, food- borne diseases and nutrition, heat-related morbidity and mortality, human development effects, mental health and stress-related disorders, neurological diseases and disorders, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, waterborne diseases, and weather-related morbidity and mortality. Additionally, cross-cutting and transdisciplinary issues relevant to potential health impacts of climate change include identifying susceptible, vulnerable, and displaced populations; enhancing public health and health care infrastructure; developing capacities and skills in modeling and prediction; and improving risk communication and public health education. Such --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 33 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan research will lead to more effective early warning systems and greater public awareness of health risks from climate change, which should translate into more successful mitigation and adaptation strategies.

2.1.6. Tourism 115. There is now a wide international recognition of the urgent need for the tourism industry, national governments, and international organizations to develop and implement strategies on CCA. However, in Bulgaria, there is low awareness of the specific negative impacts and opportunities for the sector resulting from climate change. This is true for almost all stakeholders—public authorities at national, regional, and local levels; tourism NGOs (except for Bulgarian Association for Alternative Tourism [BAAT]); and the private tourist sector. For example, municipalities are investing large sums into building more winter ski infrastructure in low altitude areas, apparently without awareness of projections of future climate conditions. 116. Despite the significant growth of publications on tourism and climate change globally, there are considerable knowledge gaps on climate change adaptation and mitigation. Key general CCA knowledge gaps include climate change science, roles and responsibilities for implementation of adaptation activities, and priorities for action as well as their financing. In Bulgaria, there is also a lack of information and little or sporadic academic research about the impact of climate change on tourism.

2.1.7. Transport 117. Awareness of the need for a systematic approach regarding CCA has started to grow among stakeholders in the transport sector in recent years. An example of this is the increasing coverage of CCA in environmental assessments of strategic documents in the transport sector. The environmental assessment of the Integrated Transport Strategy for the period until 2030, produced in 2017, includes extensive discussion of CCA (MTITC 2017). There have also been isolated initiatives in various subsectors to address specific climate change-related issues, for example, the increased use of polymer modified bitumen in road pavements. However, much remains to be done in pursuing a more systematic approach and in understanding the issues and their importance by the stakeholders in the various subsectors. 118. To review the level of awareness and the adaptive capacity of the stakeholders in the Bulgarian transport sector, the sector assessment prepared a questionnaire and distributed it among all major public-sector entities that have duties and responsibilities related to transport. A key finding was that about half of the stakeholders declared they have knowledge and understanding of CCA. 119. Regarding knowledge gaps, there is a lack of systematic studies of the longer-term impact of climate change on the transport sector in Bulgaria. Also, the definition of specific CCA actions and their effects need more attention and research.

2.1.8. Urban environment 120. Over the last decade, the country’s EU commitments on climate change have required increased awareness among policy makers for all sectors in the economy, including urban environment. At the municipal level, concerns in Bulgaria about the consequences of climate change are related to responsibilities to prevent and respond to a number of cross-cutting issues --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 34 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan such as floods, water and air pollution, drinking water shortages, and destruction of green areas. At present, the only practical measures related to climate change are limited to the preparation of documents at the national level and sparingly at the municipal level because of EU requirements. A comprehensive and long-term vision on the urban environment and its problems, including the risks from expected climate change is lacking. 121. Regarding research and education, climate change impacts on the urban environment are not sufficiently presented in the urban planning curriculum, thus reflecting the overall limited academic and professional capacity for promotion of issues of CCA. There are, therefore, considerable needs for further capacity building and increasing understanding and awareness of CCA through public engagement, communication access, and education. 122. Key knowledge gaps on CCA in the urban environment in Bulgaria are identified across a number of subjects including gaps in methodologies, information, financial analysis (cost of damage and cost-benefit analysis [CBA] of actions), implementation, and governance. Generating knowledge and information at the local level will require additional data collection and research and longer-term observations. The most important challenge for Bulgaria is seen in the sector report as information exchange and knowledge communication if the required synergy in climate change mitigation and adaptation is to be achieved.

2.1.9. Water 123. Public awareness on climate change in the context of water is mainly limited to experience of and media information on flood events. Due to the significant impacts of recent floods in terms of human victims and damage costs, there is a broad social consensus regarding the urgent necessity of defining and implementing DRM measures, mainly relating to the water sector. 124. At the policy level, in line with the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Floods Directive, public participation procedures were carried out in the preparation of the Bulgarian River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) and Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs). These two strategic planning documents are targeted to a wide range of stakeholders—society, business (industries and other water users), and municipalities, through information and consultation activities and active participation.

2.2. Legal Framework for Climate Change Adaptation 125. The legal framework and policies for CCA in Bulgaria should be understood in the context of its commitments under international conventions and EU legislation. This section gives an overview of this legal framework including relevant documents at the international, EU, and national level and a brief outline of sector-level frameworks. Further information on relevant legal framework and policies for each sector (including relevant EU Directives and Strategies) is given in the sector assessment reports that come as appendices to this strategy.

2.2.1. International framework 126. Bulgaria has been a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since June 1992 and a party to it after ratification by the Bulgarian Parliament in 1995. It is also a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol (KP). More recently, the Paris --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 35 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the UNFCCC was adopted on October 5, 2016, providing a framework for global actions to address climate change after 2020. The Paris Agreement establishes “a global goal on adaptation: enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change” and urges a significant increase in financial assistance for adaptation in developing countries. Through their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), the EU and its Member States have committed to a binding target of at least 40 percent domestic reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. 127. Bulgaria is further a party to numerous other conventions relevant to CCA in different sectors, such as the Convention for Biodiversity (CBD), the Convention for the Protection of the Architectural Heritage of Europe, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, and the Convention on Cooperation for the Protection and Sustainable Use of the Danube River.

2.2.2. EU framework 128. A number of EU strategic, legislative, and implementation-related documents underpin the Bulgarian national legal framework for CCA. The main elements are as follows: 129. Key strategies and programs:  The Europe 2020 Strategy. This sets the scene toward smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth actions across the EU. The strategy defines three mutually reinforcing priorities for each Member State: (a) smart growth—developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation; (b) sustainable growth—promoting a more resource-efficient, greener, and more competitive economy; and (c) inclusive growth—fostering a high- employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion. The 2020 package, part of the strategy, is a set of binding legislation to ensure the EU meets its climate and energy targets for the year 2020.  The EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change (EC 2013a) provides a framework and mechanisms to improve the preparedness of Member States for current and future impacts of climate change. The strategy helps enhance the capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change at the local, regional, national, and European level and supports the development of a coherent approach and improved coordination at the EU level. Key objectives include provision of funding to help Member States build up adaptation capacities, addressing gaps in knowledge about adaptation, and mainstreaming adaptation measures into EU policies and programs.  7th Environment Action Programme (EAP) to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7th EAP is an overarching document that creates the links between single environmental policies at the EU level. It explicitly links to CCA by stating that “Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources” (EC 2013c). --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 36 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Other sectoral strategies. A range of EU sectoral strategies link to national CCA legal frameworks for sectors, for example, the Biodiversity Strategy to 2020, EU Forest Strategy 2013, and the EU Strategy for the Danube Region.  Common Provisions Regulation (EU) No. 1303/2013 and the regulations governing the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) 2014–2020. These reflect the increased importance that climate change risks and the need for adaptation have gained in the EU policy agenda. The regulations explicitly mention climate change adaptation as part of the horizontal principle on sustainable development, and a 20 percent overall EU budget spending on climate change has been promoted, which includes spending on adaptation. 130. EU legislation provides a framework for Bulgaria’s policy development and national legislation to achieve the interlinked goals of the EU strategies and programs outlined earlier. In particular, this provides a basis for mainstreaming CCA into national sector policies. Several EU Directives, setting out required outcomes for Member States, without stipulating the means of implementation, underpin national legislation, for example, the Birds Directive and Habitats Directive in the context of biodiversity and ecosystem services. As well as strategic and legislative documents, the EU provides practical guidance documents and policy implementation tools. These include the information and tools in the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate–ADAPT).

2.2.3. National framework 131. At the national level, key strategies and programs that provide a foundation for legislation in general, including for CCA, are as follows:  The National Development Program Bulgaria 2020 (NDP BG2020). This details the objectives of the development policies of the country until 2020. This is an integrated document focusing on the social and economic development of Bulgaria until 2020, linking the EU priorities in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy and the national priorities of Bulgaria.  The Partnership Agreement (PA) for 2014–2020. This is the national strategic document outlining the framework for the management of EU structural and investment funds. The adverse impacts of CCA measures for negative effects are explicitly addressed under the third strategic priority ‘Connectivity and Green Economy for Sustainable Growth’, and its sub-priority ‘Climate and Climate Change, Prevention and Risk Management’. European Council states that climate action objectives will represent at least 20 percent of EU spending in the 2014–2020 period and the ESIF are a key contributor to achieving this target.  Guidelines on Mainstreaming of Environmental Policy and Climate Change Policy into the ESIF. The need to mainstream environment and climate change into other sectoral policies is a basic principle for the 2014–2020 programming period. Moreover, the Common Provisions Regulation requires Member States to provide information on the support relating to climate change, in line with the aim to allocate at least 20 percent of the EU budget for this purpose. To meet these requirements, the MoEW coordinated the development of a guidelines package in two phases—respectively for the --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 37 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan programming and implementation stages of Operational Programmes (OPs) under the Partnership Agreement. The guidelines proved to be an important tool for planning of interventions in the field of environment and climate change through all programs co- financed by the ESIF in 2014–2020 though adaptation aspect has not been explored enough.  The Third NAPCC outlines the framework for action on climate change for 2013–2020 in accordance with the EU policy and international agreements. The document also defines the duties of the relevant entities (ministries, agencies, and local authorities) and is mainly focused on climate change mitigation.  Sector strategies also provide some elements of climate change-related policy and action as outlined in the following paragraphs and with greater details in the sector assessment reports. However, they conclude that CCA is not well-mainstreamed in sector policy documents. 132. Key legislation currently in place is as follows:  Environment Protection Act (EPA) is a sector overarching act that regulates the strategic process in all areas of environmental protection, monitoring, and management. It mentions but does not go into specifics on CCA. The EPA states the principle of mainstreaming of environmental policies (including climate and biodiversity policies) across other sectors.  CCMA. This is main piece of national legislation related to climate change. It describes and regulates the state policy on the mitigation of climate change and the implementation of the mechanisms for fulfillment of the obligations of Bulgaria related to the UNFCCC and the KP. It outlines the institutional responsibilities and stakeholder involvement mechanisms. The act contains some adaptation aspects and aims to guarantee the long-term planning of measures for CCA. Article 9 explicitly provides for the development of a NAS outlining the key measures to be undertaken with this respect on horizontal and sectoral levels.

2.2.4. Sector level 133. At the sector level there are, in general, no specific current legal acts in Bulgaria that deal solely with CCA. Instead, aspects of adaptation can be found in a broad range of sector and cross-sector documents including strategies, laws, and guidance documents. A summary of the legal framework for each sector is given in the following paragraphs. Agriculture 134. Agriculture and fisheries sectors have no specific legal acts (at the national level) that deal exclusively with CCA. In the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, both agriculture and fisheries are defined as key vulnerable sectors, dependent on the impact of climate change. The EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) addresses the challenges of climate change with nearly one third of Bulgaria’s overall financial allocation under CAP 2014–2020 earmarked for mainstreaming CCA and mitigation activities. The EU Rural Development Policy also aims at mainstreaming climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. The Bulgarian Rural Development --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 38 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Programme (RDP) addresses climate change mitigation and adaptation more directly in three out of the six rural development priorities, with total indicative amount allocated to objectives affecting CCA and mitigation 44.6 percent of the total RDP budget. The Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) aims to ensure that fishing and aquaculture are environmentally, economically, and socially sustainable. The Maritime and Fisheries Program 2014-2020 is a financial instrument for implementing the Common Fisheries Policy. The Multiannual National Strategic Plan for Aquaculture in Bulgaria (2014– 2020) has been prepared in accordance with the Strategic Guidelines for the Sustainable Development of EU Aquaculture of the European Commission (EC). However, the plan lacks any assessment of the sector vulnerabilities in relation to climate change and does not prescribe any specific actions for mitigation or adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 135. At EU level, the key strategy documents are the EAP to 2020, the Biodiversity Strategy to 2020, the Action Plan for Nature, People, and the Economy Communication (which summarizes the findings of the ‘Fitness Check’ evaluation of the Birds and Habitats Directives), the Forest Strategy 2013, and the Communication on Green Infrastructure - Enhancing Europe’s Natural Capital. EU policies span various aspects of biodiversity, including specific targets for biodiversity conservation with legislative protection for key habitats and species (key directives are the Birds Directive9 and Habitats Directive10), and other sectoral legislation, such as on agriculture and forestry, fisheries, environment pollution, and climate change. 136. The main national legislative act in the area of BD&ES services is the Biodiversity Act. It defines a National Ecological Network, regulates the protection of species in situ or ex situ, as well as the designation and management of protected zones and areas and stipulates the process of preparation and approval of the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan. 137. Adaptation to climate change related to BD&ES is currently not the main focus of local and regional adaptation policies, which are, in many cases, focused on responses to disasters. Energy 138. The EC aims to increase the climate resilience of infrastructure, including energy, by providing strategic frameworks, such as the working document on ‘Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change’ (2013) and the ‘Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a Forward-Looking Climate Change Policy’ (2015). Infrastructure projects that receive EU funding should also take climate-proofing into account, based on methodologies to be developed and incorporated into the Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E) guidelines and EU Cohesion Policy. 139. Key national documents are the Energy Act and the Energy Strategy of the Republic of Bulgaria until 2020, although the Energy Strategy has no provisions for CCA. Other key documents are the Energy from Renewable Sources Act and the National Action Plan on Energy from Renewable Sources, the Energy Efficiency Act, 9 Directive 2009/147/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 on the conservation of wild birds (Birds Directive). 10 Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora (Habitats Directive) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 39 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2014–2020, and the Program for Accelerated Gasification of the Republic of Bulgaria till 2020. The Ministry of Energy has developed in cooperation with other responsible departments an Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate of the Republic of Bulgaria until 2030 in accordance with the requirements of Regulation (EC) 2018/199911 The Integrated Plan project is in line with the EC guidelines. The document was presented to the EC in January 2019. 140. Forestry 141. The EU Forest Strategy (2013) sets the agenda for sustainable forest management and includes among its priorities ‘forests in a changing climate’, which covers mainstreaming adaptation action in forest policies (Priority Area 3). The national forest legislative framework to a large extent reflects the requirements of the environment protection legislation, including those related to climate change. The National Strategy for Development of the Forest Sector in the Republic of Bulgaria (NSDFSRB) 2013–2020 defines national priorities, in line with the European framework for planning in the sector. Priorities of the strategy include ‘sustaining vital, productive and multifunctional forest ecosystems, contributing to the mitigation of the effects of the climatic changes’ (Measure 1.4 – ‘Increasing the resilience of the forest ecosystems to and their ability for climate change adaptation’). The strategic plan for the development of the forest sector for the period 2014–2023 has 20 operational targets corresponding with the NSDFSRB and 102 activities for their achievement. All these targets are related to CCA. The Forest Act (FA) (2011) and a number of other items of legislation govern environment protection and management of the forest territories in Bulgaria. In addition, there is a specific “Programme of measures for adaptation of the forests in Republic of Bulgaria and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on them.” This outlines the most problematic areas under different climate change scenarios and measures to adapt forests to climate change. Human health 142. The EU Health Strategy ‘Together for Health’ supports the overall Europe 2020 Strategy and the EU Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. The third EU Health Programme is the main instrument the EC uses to implement the EU Health Strategy. 143. The basic legal document of the health sector in Bulgaria is the Health Act (last amended on October 24, 2017). This act aims at providing a healthy living environment, protection from harmful impacts, including climatic impacts, and taking measures for their reduction. The act does not explicitly refer to any CCA issues. Other legal acts such as the Medical Institutions Act (published in 1999, last amended on October 24, 2017), the Foods Act (published in 1999, last amended on August 4, 2017), the Healthy and Safe Labor Conditions Act (published in 1997, last amended on November 1, 2015), the Health Insurance Act (published in 1998, last amended on October 24, 2017), and the Bulgarian Red Cross Act (published in 1995, last amended on October 14, 2011)—all regard environmental conditions, including climatic, as a factor of health, but none of them is directly related to the CCA for human health. The National 11 Regulation (EC) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the management of the Energy Union and Climate Action, published in the Official Journal of the European Union on 21.12.2018. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 40 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction is also closely related to health risk and adaptation to extreme weather events. Tourism 144. The tourism sector is not among the main priorities of the EU CCA legal framework and policies, although directions and initiatives relevant to tourism can be found in various documents related to GHG emissions, transport, agriculture, water supply, and other sectors. 145. There is no explicit CCA policy or strategy developed for the tourism sector in Bulgaria. The key tourism development strategies and plans are the Tourism Act, the National Strategy for Sustainable Tourism Development 2014–2030, and the Strategic Plan for the Development of Cultural Tourism in Bulgaria. The Tourism Act does not envisage any regulations or other administrative measures concerning climate change impacts on tourism or any relevant adaptation actions. The National Strategy for Sustainable Tourism Development 2014–2030 is the only strategy that gives considerable attention to climate change and its potential impact on tourism. Transport 146. The most important EU-level legal and policy documents with relevance to the transport sector are the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change (which includes specific action to ‘ensuring more resilient infrastructure’), the Common Provisions Regulation (which includes the development of sustainable transport, and climate change adaptation and mitigation in its thematic objectives), and the EU Strategy for the Danube Region. 147. The key national documents in the development of the transport system are the Strategy for the Development of the Transport System of the Republic of Bulgaria until 2020 (2010) and the Integrated Transport Strategy for the Period until 2030 (2017). In general, both strategies are more concerned with climate change mitigation, than with adaptation. Other documents with relevance to CCA in the transport sector are the National Programme for Disaster Protection 2014–2018 and the National Programme for Prevention and Mitigation of Landslides on the Territory of the Republic of Bulgaria, Erosion and Abrasion on the Danube and Black Sea Shores 2015–2020. These documents prescribe specific CCA actions to be taken by various entities in the transport sector. A number of transport infrastructure design norms are also of relevance to CCA. Urban environment 148. There is no EU Directive for the urban environment or urban sector CCA although a range of directives and initiatives are relevant for the implementation of adaptation measures in spatial and urban planning. A key initiative in this context is the Covenant of Mayors Initiative for Climate and Energy that assumed the former Mayors Adapt Initiative which was set up to engage cities in acting to adapt to climate change. Cities signing up for the adaptation initiative commit to contributing to the overall aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy by developing a comprehensive local adaptation strategy and/or integrating adaptation to climate change into relevant existing plans.12 Adaptation plans for climate change prepared in Bulgaria under the 12 In October 2015, the Mayors Adapt Initiative was officially merged with the Covenant of Mayors to create the new Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. The new covenant addresses both mitigation and adaptation. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 41 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Covenant of Mayors Initiative for Climate and Energy include those for the cities of Sofia, Burgas, and Dimitrovgrad. 149. Legislation and regulations in Bulgaria relevant to CCA for the urban environment include (a) acts and regulations directly connected to climate change, (b) urban and spatial planning and design acts and regulations, and (c) acts and regulations in other sectors, indirectly connected to the urban environment. The Spatial Planning Act is the main act, which regulates urban environment development and ensures its quality and sustainability in relation to climate challenges. The Black Sea Coast Spatial Planning Act determines the specialized norms and regulation for spatial development and construction on the coast. The Sofia Municipality Territorial Planning and Building Act is also of relevance to CCA of the urban environment. The Regional Development Act defines the system of hierarchically related documents for regional and spatial development, at the national, regional, district, municipal, and city administrative levels. The above acts also link to many other sector and issue specific strategies and legislation that directly or indirectly affect the urban environment, including for energy, building codes, transport, land use, water supply, and DRM. Water 150. Key EU water sector policy documents that provide the context for the national legal framework include the WFD, Floods Directive, and the EC Communication ‘A Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s Water Resources’. 151. Long-term strategic objectives for the water sector in Bulgaria are formulated in the Water Sector Strategy which includes CCA related objectives to (a) guaranteed provision of water to the population and businesses in times of climate change leading to drought, and (b) reduce the risk of flood damage. 152. A number of laws and ordinances provide the legal framework for water in Bulgaria. The Water Act is the major water-related legal document and transposes the requirements of the WFD and the Floods Directive into national legislation as well as specifying other aspects, such as ownership of waters and water infrastructure, water use, and management of water supply and sanitation systems. The Spatial Development Act also includes provisions related to the water supply and sanitation subsector. The Water Supply and Sewerage Services Regulation Act aims to create a legal framework to ensure better services to the clients, as well as better operation and maintenance of the infrastructure. The main legal act in the field of hydro- melioration is the Irrigation Associations Act.13 Hydropower generation is also governed by several acts including the Energy Act. Finally, in compliance with the requirements of the WFD and the Floods Directive, as well as of the Water Act, Bulgaria develops and implements RBMPs and FRMPs for each of the four river basin management regions. Disaster risk management 153. The lead policy document on DRM is the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction 2014–2020. The strategy is developed in line with the provisions of the Law on Protection from 13 The Common Strategy for Management and Development of Hydro-melioration and Protection against Harmful Effects of Water establishes a new framework for legal and institutional reforms and it outlines how the hydro-melioration sector should manage the infrastructure. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 42 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Disasters (2011),14 the Hyogo Framework for Action and EU policies and decisions. The strategy aims to identify the strategic priorities for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and support their implementation on the national, regional, municipal, and specific-object level. It supports identification and prioritization of concrete areas for transboundary and transregional cooperation as well as long term coordination of DRR. The National Programme for Protection from Disasters 2014–2018 sets out the objectives and tasks for disaster protection. 154. The above National DRM Strategy and Programme are linked to a number of specific programs and plans such as the National Programme for Prevention and Limitation of Landslides on the Territory of the Republic of Bulgaria, the Erosion and Abrasion along the Danube and Black Sea Coast 2015–2020, and the FRMPs.

2.3. Institutional and Stakeholders’ Framework 155. The climate change-related institutional framework in Bulgaria has, over recent years, focused mainly on mitigation. The institutional framework related to CCA is an element of the overall climate change institutional framework set out in the CCMA and the related sub- legislation. The structure and main actors in implementing the Bulgarian climate change policy is outlined in Figure 5. The areas that are not yet legally mandated or sufficiently detailed are marked in red. 156. The Bulgarian Parliament is responsible for decisions on legislating climate change policy and financial allocations for their implementation. The Council of Ministers (CoM) is the implementing body responsible for approving the national climate change policy, approving the staff allocations through the statutes of bodies responsible for climate policy implementation, and drafting the financial resource allocations. 157. The MoEW is responsible for coordinating the policy-making process in relation to CCA. The work in the area of climate change is done within the specialized Directorate for Climate Change Policy. The National Coordination Council on Climate Change led by the MoEW and involving representatives of all ministries and agencies is fostering strategy development. The MoEW is also assisted by the National Expert Council on Climate Change, established under the CCMA, which includes representatives of the ministries, the executive agencies, the BAS, the National Association of Municipalities, and non-profit organizations with an interest in climate change. 158. The ministries are responsible for mainstreaming climate policies in their respective sectors and for developing and implementing adaptation measures for climate change, in coordination with the MoEW and in consultation with the National Expert Council. Responsible ministries and governmental agencies include the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forestry (MAFF); Ministry of Economy (MEc); Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications (MTITC); Ministry of Finance (MF); Ministry of Interior (MI); Ministry of Energy (MEn); Ministry of Exterior (MEx); Ministry of Health (MH); Ministry of Education 14 The Law on Protection from Disasters (2011) concerns the protection of lives and health of the population, the environment, and property. The act lays down provisions related to the prevention activities, actions in situation of disaster, support and recovery actions, financial and technical insurance for protection from disasters, and functions of the executive authorities. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 43 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan and Science; Ministry of Labor and Social Policy (MLSP); and Executive Environment Agency (ExEA). Figure 5. Structure and main actors in implementing the Bulgarian climate change policy Note: All abbreviations used in this figure could be found within the Abbreviations and Acronyms section. Source: World Bank design. 159. A brief outline of institutional and stakeholder frameworks by sector, with specific reference to CCA where possible, is given in the following paragraphs.

2.3.1. Agriculture 160. The MAFF is responsible for the programming of the RDP and operates various schemes supporting agriculture. The MAFF is also responsible for the development programs and strategies in the fishery and aquaculture sectors. The State Fund for Agriculture (SFA) deals with administration and controls of direct payments to farmers, payment for projects within the RDP, and the national state aid program in agriculture. The Directorate for Rural Development is acting as the managing authority for the RDP and is responsible for the efficient programming, management, and implementation of the program. Various administrative units, such as the directorate for livestock, have activities and policy that is partly related to climate change. The Maritime and Fisheries Program 2014-2020 is a instrument for implementing the Common Fisheries Policy. The main issue is coordination of climate change policy across different directorates. 161. The farm advisory services in Bulgaria are currently delivered by the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAAS) and private advisory organizations. The Bulgarian National Rural Network (NRN), part of the European Network for Rural Development, aims to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among network members to support cooperation activities and strengthen the capacity of local action groups. The NRN’s activities are coordinated by the Rural Development Directorate, part of the MAFF. The National Agency --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 44 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for Fisheries and Aquaculture (NAFA) manages fisheries and aquaculture and provides monitoring and control of fishing, and aquaculture. 162. The BAS is the leading scientific institution in the country carrying out research and development activities on climate change, examining fluctuations, adaptation of the individual sectors, and so on. The Agricultural Academy of Bulgaria is a public research organization, responsible for conducting scientific and applied research in the fields of agriculture, fisheries and aquacultures, as well as the food industry. Trakia University and Agrarian University - Plovdiv are leading universities in agriculture and agrarian economics and carry out research in agricultural sector development. 163. Several NGOs have had a direct input on developing the policy in agricultural sectors, such as the National Grain Producers Association, Association of Agricultural Producers in Bulgaria, Bulgarian Association of Organic Products and Bulgarian Association for Dairy Processors. Тwo of the largest fisheries associations in Bulgaria are the Association of Fish Products Producers BG Fish and the National Association of Fish Producers.

2.3.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 164. BD&ES is a cross-cutting policy area which needs to be mainstreamed across sectors. Hence, the institutional framework on strategic and legislative levels spans a range of institutions. The overall responsibility of the MoEW as a policy-making body for environmental issues includes the requirement for the respective units to achieve a cross-sectoral harmonization for mainstreaming CCA within policy related to BD&ES services. The newly created Environment Impact Assessment Directorate (operational since October 2017) should also be closely involved in operationalization of the ecosystem approach. 165. As a focal point for environmental data collection and reporting (National Environmental Monitoring System), the ExEA is expected to play a key role in provision of data on CCA and biodiversity and in introducing ecosystems-based monitoring. 166. Other line ministries, agencies, and government-appointed bodies include policy making and implementing authorities across sectors affected by or affecting biodiversity. These include the Ministers of MEc, Ministry of Energy (MEn), MTITC, MAFF, MI, Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works (MRDPW), MH, Ministries of Education, and Sciences, Labor and Social Policy, and Culture, as well as the State Agency for National Security, the Executive Forest Agency, Bulgarian Food Safety Agency, Executive Agency Automobile Administration, Executive Agency Railway Administration, Executive Agency Maritime Administration, Executive Agency for Exploration and Maintenance of the Danube River, Directorate General Civil Aviation Administration, BAS, National Trust Ecofund, and Enterprise for Management of Environmental Protection Activities (EMEPA). Bodies with horizontal functions include the Minister of the MF and the National Statistical Institute (NSI). 167. Other bodies with responsibilities relevant for BD& ES include the following:  Regional Inspectorates of Environment and Water and local authorities, which implement environmental policies at the regional and local levels including those related to biodiversity and some related sectors under the Minister of Environment and Water. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 45 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  The National Park Directorates and Nature Park Directorates. Due to the importance of forests for climate change resilience, they have a role in setting up and implementing ecosystems-based monitoring and management plans that maximize the resilience of valuable ecosystems.  Basin Directorates. These are in charge of water management policies in the four basin territories of Bulgaria.  Governors. These are in charge of implementing environmental policies at a district level across a number of municipalities.  Mayors. Their decisions on selection of adaptation options for a given territory will mean that they are instrumental in recognizing and communicating the importance of ecosystem services and their benefits for CCA. 168. Biodiversity has many stakeholders spread across different institutions. This can make policy coordination and implementation difficult for organizational reasons and due to the potential for conflicting interests represented by different stakeholders. Key stakeholders directly related to biodiversity policies are the expert councils being created under the EPA (for example, Expert Ecological Councils, the Basin Councils, and the National Council of Experts on Biodiversity); regional and branch associations (for example, National Associations of Municipalities of the Republic of Bulgaria, Regional Municipal Associations, Regional Initiative Groups, and the Bulgarian Association of Municipal Ecologists); and NGOs (for example, World Wide Fund for Nature - WWF, the Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds, Green Balkans, and BlueLink). Bulgarian business is also likely to follow the lead of its Western counterparts and take an active interest in CCA, even more so in the BD&ES sector where ecosystem restoration and other forms of ‘green businesses’ are likely to increase resilience, therefore, directly affecting other sectors such as the insurance industry.

2.3.3. Energy 169. The energy policy in Bulgaria is implemented by the MEn, which defines the strategic objectives and priorities in the sector and implements the country’s energy policy. The main role of the MEn, in cooperation with the MoEW and other related institutions, organizations and entities in the area of CCA, lies with the Strategies and Policies for Sustainable Energy Development Directorate; the Energy Security and Crises Management Directorate; Natural Resources, Concessions, and Control Directorate; and the Energy Projects and International Cooperation Directorate. The MEn does not have a specific unit responsible for CCA. Experts of the ministry participate in the Inter-ministerial Committee on Climate Change and the Inter- ministerial Working Group for Development of the National Allocation Plan. The remit of groups, which were established in 2000 and 2005 respectively, is to coordinate climate measures in key sectoral policies. 170. Other institutions with CCA-related responsibilities and interests are as follow:  Sustainable Energy Development Agency is responsible for the implementation of national policies in the area of energy efficiency, renewable sources, and biofuels utilization. As such, the agency contributes to implementing the national policy on climate change mitigation and adaptation. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 46 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  The Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (EWRC), an independent specialized state body, is responsible for the regulation of the activities in the energy sector and water supply and sewerage.  The Nuclear Regulatory Agency (NRA) has as the main responsibility to guarantee nuclear safety and radiation protection in the country. Certain responsibilities and obligations overlap with CCA in relation to preparedness, protection, and monitoring for extreme events.  Municipalities are responsible for efficient production, supply, and use of energy (for example, energy savings through buildings renovation, energy-efficient street lighting). They can also develop their own CCA strategy and action plans, including those related to the energy sector. For example, in 2016, Sofia municipality adopted an adaptation strategy to climate change that contained adaptation measures in the energy sector. 171. Key stakeholders for the energy sector are as follows:  Energy companies. Key among these is the Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD (BEH EAD), a company wholly owned by the Bulgarian state with rights of ownership exercised by the Minister of the MEn.  Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. The BAS carries out research and development activities on climate change including adaptation of sectors.  Private sector organizations. The most notable are the Confederation of Employers and Industrialists in Bulgaria (CEIB), represented by its Environmental Protection Directorate and the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI).  NGOs. The Bulgaria Climate Coalition spans over 100 organizations including WWF, Greenpeace Bulgaria, Borrowed Nature Association, Green Policy Institute, Regional Ecologic Centre-Sofia, and EU for the Earth.

2.3.4. Forestry 172. The MAFF is responsible for the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry. The vulnerability of the forestry sector to climate change is addressed mainly by the Commercial Companies and State Forest Enterprises Directorate, Land Use and Land Consolidation Directorate, , the Executive Forest Agency, and the State Enterprises under the FA. The ministry does not have a specific unit responsible for CCA. 173. Other institutions and stakeholders with CCA-related responsibilities and interests are as follows:  Key NGOs and professional organizations with direct relationships with the forestry sector are the Association ‘Municipal Forests’ which represents municipalities owning forests in Bulgaria, the National Association of Non-State Forest Owners ‘Gorovladelets’, and The Union of Bulgarian Foresters. There are also several active NGOs that work on topics related to the management of forest resources and climate change, such as the World Wildlife Fund-Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Society for Protection of Birds, the Association of Parks in Bulgaria, the Bulgarian ‘Biodiversity’ Foundation, ‘Za Zemiata (For the Nature)’ Association, and ‘Green Balkans’ Federation. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 47 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Entities developing forest management plans and inventories are companies registered in the public register under Article 241 of the FA.  The hunters and fishermen in Bulgaria are represented by the nonprofit organization the ‘National Hunting-Fishing Association’ (a Union of Hunters and Fishermen in Bulgaria and Bulgarian Hunting-Fishing Association).  Forest harvesting contractors and timber processors (including the Branch Chamber of Woodworking and Furniture Industry [BCWFI]).  Academic institutions. University of Forestry – Sofia (UF), the Forest Research Institute (FRI) to the BAS, and the Institute on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research (IBER) to the BAS.  Branch Chambers are BULPROFOR – the Union of Practicing Foresters and Forest Entrepreneurs in Bulgaria; 174. It is noted that CCA-related activities are in most cases not addressed by specialized units in many of the interested organizations of the forestry sector. This is of particular relevance to local authorities and businesses as many of the CCA policies and measures for forestry are to be implemented at the local level.

2.3.5. Human health 175. The decision-making mechanisms for the development and implementation of health promotion and primary prevention-related policies in Bulgaria are initialized, developed, and approved by the MH. The MH is therefore the key institution with responsibilities for integration of climate change policy with regard to human health. However, the sector assessment report finds that, at present, there is a lack of activity related to CCA by MH units. There is also no dedicated climate- and health-related structure involved in the adaptation policy making process. The National Expert Council on Climate Change includes representatives of the MH and other health stakeholders such as the Red Cross, although the council’s activities have not to date included human health aspects of CCA. 176. Key stakeholders include the following:  Actors in the insurance system. The Health Insurance Act of 1998 (last amended on October 4, 2017) reformed the Bulgarian health system into a health insurance system with compulsory health insurance and voluntary health insurance. The key players in the insurance system are the insured individuals, health care providers, and third-party payers, comprising the National Health Insurance Fund (the single payer in the social health insurance system) and voluntary health insurance companies.  The private sector stakeholders encompass all primary medical, dental, and pharmaceutical care, most of the specialized outpatient care and some hospitals. Institutions at the regional and local levels are Regional Health Inspectorates and regional and municipal bodies responsible for healthcare, disease prevention, and social protection.  Organizations in the context of health impacts of extreme weather events, including the Bulgarian Red Cross, together with the Youth Red Cross, the Mountain Rescue --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 48 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Service, the Water Life-Saving Service, and the Fire Safety and Civil Protection Directorate General (FSCPDG). 177. There are a large number of other health-related organizations in Bulgaria. Although not many of them deal explicitly with CCA at present, many could develop activities in this area. These include professional organizations (for example, the Bulgarian Union of Medical Doctors and the Bulgarian Association of Health Care Professionals), medical universities and schools, research institutes (for example, the Institute of Molecular Biology, the Institute of Microbiology), scientific societies (for example, the Bulgarian cardiological society and the Bulgarian society of infectious diseases), and NGOs (for example, the National Association of Urgent Medical Support Staff).

2.3.6. Tourism 178. The major institution responsible for tourism development in Bulgaria is the Ministry of Tourism (MT). The ministry is responsible for any new documents (plans, strategies, and so on) concerning tourism development in general, including CCA actions in the sector. The National Tourist Council (NTC) is a consultative body at the Minister of MT which aims to assist in the implementation of the national tourism policy. The members of the NTC are representatives of the tourism-related ministries and institutions, regional, local, and branch tourist associations, associations of air, land, and water carriers, and nationally represented associations of consumers in the Republic of Bulgaria. 179. Key tourism related NGOs are the National Tourism Board (NTB), BAAT, the Association of Bulgarian Tour Operators and Travel Agents (ABTTA), the Bulgarian Hotelier and Restaurant Association (BHRA), the Bulgarian Balneological and SPA Tourism Union, the Bulgarian Association of Travel Agents (BATA), the Bulgarian Tourist Chamber (BTCH). There are also several regional tourism associations and regional tourism councils in Bulgaria. Other stakeholders in Bulgaria are all municipalities in which tourism is or can be developed. A new tourism stakeholder is the network of the Organizations for Tourism Regions Management (OTRMs), which is currently being established. 180. The sector assessment report concludes that important institutions and stakeholders which can have a substantial impact on the approval and the adoption of CCA actions in the tourism sector in Bulgaria, are as follows:  At the national level. The MT, BAAT, and the national intermediaries’ (mainly tour operators’) associations (ABTTA and BATA).  At the regional level. The OTRMs, regional tourism associations, and municipalities.

2.3.7. Transport 181. The institutional framework for the transport sector in Bulgaria at the policy-making level includes two main entities—the MTITC and the MRDPW. Neither ministry has a dedicated unit specifically responsible for climate change adaptation. 182. In the MTITC, the Safety, Technical Supervision and Crises Management Directorate, the National Transport Policy Directorate, the Coordination of Programmes and Projects Directorate and the European Coordination and International Cooperation Directorate are --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 49 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan involved in the subject as part of their general duties. The ministry has inspectors in charge of monitoring the safety of all modes of transport. They also register events such as catastrophes, infrastructure failures, and obstructions to services. 183. In the MRDPW, a unit with a potential role in CCA is the Technical Rules and Regulations Department. The Department is responsible for developing the draft regulations in the area of design and construction of roads, streets, transport networks and facilities. The Geo- protection and Public Works Directorate is responsible for registration and monitoring of landslides. In case of unfavorable geodynamic events, MRDPW provides support and specialized assistance through one company for geo-protection, located in Varna, with brunches in Pleven and Pernik. 184. At the implementation level, an extremely important role is played by the various agencies, state companies and trade enterprises under the two ministries. The most important such entities are the Road Infrastructure Agency (RIA), the National Railway Infrastructure Company (NRIC), the Bulgarian Ports Infrastructure Company (BPI), the Executive Agency for Exploration and Maintenance of the Danube River, and the Directorate General of Civil Aviation Administration (CAA). 185. Regarding transport in urban areas, the most important entities are the municipalities and the public transport operators. The municipalities are responsible for the preparation of general and transport masterplans and are in charge of employing and controlling the operators, as well having a significant role in building and maintaining the municipal transport infrastructure. Several Bulgarian municipalities are members of the Covenant of Mayors Initiative for Climate and Energy, the largest of them being the municipalities of Sofia, Burgas, and Varna. Most of the municipalities participating in the initiative have developed CCA strategies and action plans and have units with duties and responsibilities related to CCA. 186. NGOs in the transport sector include the Bulgarian Construction Chamber, Bulgarian Road Safety Branch Chamber, National Association of the Municipalities in the Republic of Bulgaria, National Association of the Bulgarian Road Carriers, Union of International Haulers, Association of the Bulgarian Enterprises for International Road Transport and the Roads, Bulgarian Association of Road Transport Organizations, and Association of Bulgarian Railway Carriers.

2.3.8. Urban environment 187. Ministries and organizations with responsibilities and interests in the urban environment sector cut across a number of other sectors. The regional policy in Bulgaria, part of which is the urban development policy, is governed by the MRDPW. It sets the legal framework for regional development, spatial planning, investment projects, construction, and construction supervision. The Minister of the MRDPW carries overall responsibility for the development of the road infrastructure together with the MTITC, the former supported by the RIA. The development and management of the water supply and sewerage sector and the activities for prevention of the harmful effects of waters within the settlements are carried out with the help of the Water Supply and Sewerage Directorate, which plans and coordinates the water supply and sewerage sector at the national level. The public works and geo-protection are managed by the respective --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 50 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan specialized directorate. On the territory of the country, there is one state company for geo- protection, in Varna, with brunches in Pleven and Pernik. 188. The Minister of the MRDPW also carries out the state policy on the development of legislation in the field of design and construction and on their harmonization with EU law. The state policy on water management in Bulgaria is carried out by the MoEW and its Water Management Directorate. This ministry is assisted by four River Basin Directorates (RBDs) and 16 Regional Inspectorates for Environment and Water, which along with the rest of their activities carry out control over wastewaters. 189. Urban environment-related institutions with respect to CCA are all ministries with their respective units and state agencies, which in some way are responsible for management of different risks. The MRDPW has a leading role, because of the wide range of activities, related to spatial and regional development policy, development and implementation of government housing policy, water supply, landslides, and construction. 190. Other stakeholders in the sector are the following:  Professional communities and bodies involved in transposition of the international standards and codes in Bulgarian spatial and urban planning and in the construction sector, such as the Union of Bulgarian Architects, Chamber of the Bulgarian Architects, Union of Planners in Bulgaria, and Bulgarian Construction Chamber.  Research organizations. Key stakeholders in the process of research, planning, implementation, and evaluation of adaptation options include a number of academic organizations, such as the specialist institutes at the BAS and the University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy (UACEG).  In the private sector, there are many small consulting companies in this field, which however, have very limited capacity to deal with CCA plans and programs.  NGOs. The main actor among the NGOs in Bulgaria is the National Association of Municipalities in the Republic of Bulgaria (NAMRB), which works mainly with mayors and chief architects of the municipalities, supports their initiatives, and represents them in the governmental structures, in the EU and in the Assembly of the European Regions. The specific issues on CCA are within the scope of regional organizations, such as the Association of Danube Municipalities, Association of Black Sea Municipalities, and Association of the Mountainous Municipalities. The establishment of the network of Black Sea NGO is an attempt at better cooperation and capacity building. The representatives of the NGO sector in the country are also active on issues related to environment quality, air pollution, and drinking water, energy and green infrastructure. They actively participate as consultants during municipal Spatial Development Plans elaboration and their assessment of strategic documents (for example, SEAs), in public consultations and expert councils.

2.3.9. Water 191. Several institutions have responsibilities for the management and development of the water sector, which necessitates good coordination. The MoEW is responsible for the formulation and implementation of the policies and measures to climate change mitigation and --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 51 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan adaptation and implementation of the national water management policy. To support the activity, a Higher Advisory Council on Waters has been set up with the Minister of the MoEW. This council includes representatives of ministries with functions and responsibilities in water management and conservation, the BAS, municipalities, non-profit legal entities with a direct relation to water, and others. 192. The MoEW interacts with a number of institutions in the implementation of water management policy, including the MRDPW, MAFF, MI (General Directorate Civil Defense), the District Governors, the mayors of municipalities, and the NIMH. Other key organizations with water management-related responsibilities are the Executive Environmental Agency, RBDs, Regional Inspectorates for Environment and Water, MEn, MEc, and EWRC.

2.3.10. Disaster risk management 193. The activities for population protection in case of emergency or disasters are carried out by the Unified Rescue System according to Disaster Protection Plans. The Unified Rescue System includes ministries and agencies, municipalities, commercial companies and sole entrepreneurs, emergency medical care centers, other medical and health care establishments, nonprofit organizations, including voluntary formations under Article 41 of the Disaster Protection Act, and armed forces. The coordination of the components of the Unified Rescue System is carried out by the operational centers of the FSCPDG. 194. A Disaster Risk Reduction Council was created as a permanent body to the CoM to ensure coordination and cooperation in the implementation of state policy in the field of disaster protection. The Council performs the functions of a national DRR platform in implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015 and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.

2.4. Ongoing and Foreseen CCA Actions 195. This section briefly outlines ongoing and foreseen priority actions on CCA at the sector level as identified in the sector assessment reports. This illustrates the rather limited action currently being taken on CCA in some sectors and the need for impetus on CCA that should be provided by the NAS.

2.4.1. Agriculture 196. Recommendations for priority foreseen actions are the following:  Water management and the development of good irrigation practices are recommended for immediate attention. In particular, promotion of sustainable use of natural resources and arable land and reduction of the vulnerability of agricultural crops to climate change impacts that may lead to decrease in crop yields, loss of profits, and loss of competitiveness. Recommendations also include improving soil structure maintenance and restoration and increasing the soil’s infiltration capacity to minimize erosion.  Adjusting livestock breeding to address the adverse effect of climate change on livestock production. The efforts could be to adapt farms and facilities, diversify livestock farming and improve existing pastures for grazing. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 52 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Investment in CCA measures and risk management tools by the private sector, NGOs, and government and local communities. Farmers usually have limited resources and they are insured at low premium, which does not cover the losses for climate change extreme events. Therefore, farmers need investments to ensure they can cover the costs of adapting to climate change and appropriate risk management tools.  Targeting eco-innovations and the development and introduction of more selective fishing equipment, facilities, and resource-efficient technologies. The changes in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors caused by climate change will require enhanced adaptability and flexibility in fisheries and aquaculture policies. The uncertainty associated with the interactions between climate change and fisheries and aquaculture in the long term require further research and studies to enable policy makers to develop and implement CCA strategies in these fields.  Information dissemination. Develop a database of information and online portal for exchange of information. Availability of innovation research will allow its use by different stakeholders including farmers and public institution. Online platforms can be established for agriculture, aquaculture, and fishery.

2.4.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 197. Ongoing actions on CCA are cited as follows:  Development of guidelines for the integration of environmental policy and climate change policy in the EU Funds programming, on the initiative of the MoEW for the current programming period 2014–2020. These guidelines contain general provisions on mainstreaming and environmental and climate-related criteria and requirements to be used in the assessment of project proposals and their subsequent implementation.  Progress on important environmental data that could be used for sectoral CCA 15. In particular, European Economic Area Financial Mechanism 2009–2014 programs BG02 integrated management of marine and inland water and BG03 biodiversity and ecosystem services have laid the methodological foundation and compiled a mapping and assessment outside NATURA 2000, whereas OP-Environment has planned for performing the mapping and assessment within NATURA.  Bulgaria also participates in international activities related to BD&ES and exploring the relationship with climate change, such as the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), International Long-Term Ecosystem Research (ILTER) and Network and the Ecosystem Services Partnership (ESP).

2.4.3. Energy 198. Bulgaria is currently not implementing any energy measures/actions explicitly targeted at CCA. However, a number of activities and initiatives in the sector mainly dealing with mitigation efforts provide synergies with adaptation. These include the following:  Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate of R of Bulgaria 2030 15 By September 2018, Bulgaria is determined as the country with the biggest progress in EU and the mapping of ecosystems. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 53 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  National Investment Plan 2020 (with a main objective to ensure a sustainable transition to a low-carbon economy)  Diversification of energy sources (in particular, development of the gas network) and energy efficiency

2.4.4. Forestry 199. Key ongoing actions are given as follows:  Program of Measures to Adapt Forests in the Republic of Bulgaria and Mitigate the Negative Impact of Climate Change on them 2012–2020, adopted by the Executive Forest Agency (EFA) under the MAFF (UNECE 2017).  The Third National Climate Change Action Plan 2013–2020 defines a small number of adaptation measures in the agriculture and forestry sectors.  National Forest Inventory (NFI). Ongoing implementation of a full NFI is of critical importance to collect reliable data on the status of forest resources.

2.4.5. Human health 200. As outlined earlier, there is a lack of activity related to CCA in the health sector as a whole. However, individually, the sector representatives take part in a number of activities at the local, national, and international level, relevant to CCA. This includes participation in the process of policy making, educational activity, research activity, information provision, and public communication. It is recommended in the sector assessment report that the existence of such actions is further identified, and steps are taken to develop an official sector framework for CCA actions.

2.4.6. Tourism 201. There is very limited current involvement by the tourism sector on CCA activities. The only CCA-related action in which a Bulgarian tourism organization took part that is referred to in the sector assessment report was the ‘Climate Change – the Challenges before Bulgarian Nature and Tourism’ conference held in December 2015 and co-organized by BAAT.

2.4.7. Transport 202. To date, the approach to CCA in the Bulgarian transport sector has not been very systematic. Specific climate change-related issues have been identified by stakeholders who have sometimes attempted to resolve them on a case-by-case basis. Examples of CCA actions taken in the various transport subsectors include increased use of polymer modified bitumen, stopping of heavy vehicles during hot weather (by the Traffic Police based on an ordinance issued by the RIA), and revision of the road design norms (commissioned by the MRDPW). 203. Following EU legislation for the current programming period 2014–2020, all transport infrastructure projects applying for grant financing from the EU Cohesion and Structural Funds shall perform a CCA assessment. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 54 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

2.4.8. Urban environment 204. The envisaged actions for CCA in the urban environment can be derived from the adopted Third NAPCC 2013–2020, the National Programme for Disaster Protection 2014– 2018, and the Action Plan to the National Strategy for Management and Development of the Water Sector in the Republic of Bulgaria. The Third NAPCC 2013–2020 does not have an urban environment sector, so the associated measures are found in other sectors. 205. Urban environment-related specific ongoing and foreseen actions are mainly focused on the response of other sectors to the extreme weather events and their consequences. These relate to action for extreme temperatures, floods, landslides, fires, droughts (water resources), and DRM. The most important actions are connected with the monitoring and control of the implementation of the adopted strategic documents and their action plans and programs, with the provision and access to reliable information, knowledge development and communication, capacity building, and awareness raising. 206. At the municipal level, ongoing actions most directly related to adaptation of the urban environment are their CCA strategies. All municipal councils have adopted rules and procedures aimed at reducing the risk of natural disasters. However, in general, physical modifications to the environment through adaptive topography and adaptive infrastructure are still mainly aspirations and at present, are rarely used in practice.

2.4.9. Water 207. The MoEW has launched activities specifically aiming at CCA, during the preparation of the national CCA strategy. The major actions for implementation are in the framework of the programs of measures under the RBMPs and FRMPs. 208. Water utilities are participating in various projects and initiatives, including benchmarking projects. Although CCA is not directly targeted, this is an opportunity for the water utilities to increase their efficiency. This is the way to also increase their resilience, especially in terms of increasing the efficiency of water supply systems, reducing leakages, and unbilled consumption. 209. Regional feasibility studies are currently being carried out for the designated areas of the biggest 15 operators of water supply and sewerage systems that will assess the risks associated with climate change and will set up measures to adapt to future climate change and mitigate their impact as well for disaster resilience. As a result of the assessment, measures will be proposed to comply with existing national and European legislation related to climate change.

2.5. Gaps and Barriers Hindering CCA Response 210. A number of common themes emerge from the sector assessment reports in the identification of gaps and barriers hindering CCA responses in general and specifically in the Bulgarian context. Key common and interlinked themes are summarized in the following paragraphs. The categories of gaps and barriers used here link to the characterization of adaptation capacity to address vulnerability to climate change in the National Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for the Sectors of the Bulgarian Economy (MoEW 2014) and other guidelines on developing adaptation strategies and options (EC 2013b and UKCIP --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 55 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2007). These themes feed into the analysis on the visions of CCA and the strategic objectives and national program and action plan in the following sections of this report.  Awareness-raising and communication. This refers to the need for effective communication of relevant information on CCA—and other complicated concepts such as ecosystems and their services—as well as awareness raising campaigns to create a common understanding for adaptation needs. This includes various measures such as early awareness raising in schools, public access, and dissemination of information. This facilitates preparedness to take measures to adapt to climate change and public participation in decision making on the management of risk from climate change. General current lack of awareness and understanding of specific climate change impacts and CCA needs was identified across sectors.  Institutional capacity. This refers to internal organizational/administrative capacity and expert capacity among organizations responsible for CCA policy and actions. Identified specific gaps and barriers are as follows: o The scope and quality of coordination between institutions related to CCA (ministries, state agencies, and so on). A particular challenge arises for sectors with a greater level of cross-cutting issues (for example, health, tourism, and urban environment), where a range of sector institutions are involved in CCA policies and there is greater potential for lack of coordination and cooperation. There is also potential for disparity of capacity and involvement between central, regional, local agencies and governmental structures, which may lead to the exclusion or limited attention to climate change policies and CCA priorities at the local and regional level. o Insufficient professional training, including specialized occupational training and knowledge-sharing activities related to CCA, as well as dedicated university programs. o The level of awareness among some decision makers and preparedness of staff to integrate this knowledge into the planning and management process. This should be addressed by specialized capacity-building courses for policy makers and creating of skills and tools for informed decision making. o Data collection and monitoring. This refers to the extent to which relevant information is available and used for informed decision making regarding CCA at all levels. For example, the need for a more unified and systematic basis for collecting and processing information and data is recommended in the agricultural sector report and the lack of availability and quality of statistical data required to support the planning process is identified as a barrier for the transport sector. o Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) capacity. Effective implementation of CCA polices requires a process of M&E to be put in place. For example, the health sector is at an early stage of policy development and requires further development of appropriate tools and mechanisms for this.  Knowledge and data gaps. This refers to uncertainty and gaps in information and dedicated research that hinders the adaptation policy process. This includes uncertainties --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 56 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan with climate projections and associated risks, costs and benefits of adaptation, vulnerabilities at the local level, and the availability of data for M&E purposes (including the need for greater inter-operability between databases and data access, as well as the need for local-level projections of CCA impact on ecosystems, as highlighted for the BD&ES sector). A number of these knowledge and data gaps feed into institutional capacity and policy and legal framework issues identified in the following paragraph (for example, a number of research and methodological issues were identified as a barrier for health sector CCA policy development). Moreover, such gaps may inhibit some sectors’ stakeholders from taking action, for example, a major barrier preventing energy companies from taking action on risks of extreme weather events was identified as the uncertainty and lack of tools to incorporate these risks into their corporate decision making.  Policy and legal framework. This refers in particular to changing or developing regulations, standards, codes, plans, policy or programs to integrate, and risks from climate change, and mainstream CCA responses. Key specific issues are the following: o The need for improved policy coherence and coordination of CCA initiatives across sectors. This is a recurring issue in sector assessments including, for example, in the forestry and health reports. The urban environment report outlines the issue of various diverging strategies (such as for green infrastructure, natural disasters and energy efficiency), developed at the municipal level, overlapping in content but poorly coordinated. The water sector report also highlights lack of synchronization between different legal acts. The BD&ES report highlights the spread of institutional capacities between different institutions whose mandates do not include the protection and building up of ecosystem services important for adaptation and may even lead to the decline in such services. o The need for implementation arrangements to have clear allocation of responsibilities and mandates to different entities. o A specific gap (outlined in the context of BD&ES and linked to knowledge and data gaps) is the need to simplify and accelerate decision making by implementing to the extent possible a single pool of environmental data for the use of decision makers and developing tools for analyzing tradeoffs in decisions. o The need for CCA to be better incorporated in sector-specific legislation and other documents. In the case of transport, specific gaps are identified in the rules and regulations, for example, for design of road and railway bridges, culverts and other drainage structures, and so on. There is also a focus on improving such infrastructure performance issues on a case-by-case basis and not as structured and planned efforts to address the effects of climate change. In the case of the water sector, there are gaps in legislation (for example, rainwater harvesting and reclaimed water use) and design norms. Also, the need for using the co-benefits and assessing tradeoffs in a resource-effective approach when deciding on the mix of solutions on the regional and local level requires a better coordination across all policies.  Limitation in financial and human resources. Lack of financial resources for CCA actions is a common theme across sectors. Currently, there is high dependence on EU --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 57 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan funding, especially for large investment projects. Key issues are the following: o Competing priorities. Priorities other than climate change mitigation and adaptation often have greater short-term benefits, for example, in the tourist sector and energy sectors, where investment in building resilience competes for resources with other objectives, many of which are more immediate and tangible. In the forestry sector, there is a need for funding of strategic programs with very long duration, where shorter-term project funding is not an appropriate solution. o Lack of information on the financial resources necessary for adaptation to climate change, such as in the case of buildings and facilities in the urban environment. o Limited CCA dedicated human resources both in number and in expertise in key institutions are identified by a number of sector assessments (for example, energy, health, tourism, and water). --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 58 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Chapter 3. Vision on Climate Change Adaptation

3.1. PEST and SWOT Analyses

3.1.1. Political, economic, social and technological (PEST) context 211. In 2017, Bulgaria marked its 10-year membership of the EU with a real GDP growth of 3.6 percent and projected to reach 3.8 percent in 2018 (DG ECFIN forecast, spring 2018). This is a real boost compared to the modest average growth rate of around 1 percent during the global crisis from 2009 to 2014. The main driver of this GDP growth is the capital expenditure by the government due to the uptake of EU funds under the 2014–2020 programming period. 212. Political stability after 2014 helped reduce fiscal pressures and government debt. The country’s government debt declined from 28.2 percent of GDP in 2015 to 25.4 percent in 2017 and is still one of the lowest in the EU. The labor market recovery also continued in 2017, with employment growth rising by 1.8 percent and the employment rate returning to its pre-crisis level of 64.3 percent. 213. The Global Competitiveness Report 2017–2018, published by the World Economic Forum, shows that Bulgaria has moved up from 50th to 49th place among 137 economies included in the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI). Back in 2011, the country was ranked 74th and it should be acknowledged that the main pillars driving Bulgaria forward were the macroeconomic environment (25th place) and technological readiness (39th place). 214. Technological readiness includes a number of quantitative indicators such as the share of individual Internet users, the share of broadband Internet subscribers and high Internet speed. According to Eurostat data, in 2016 the share of households with access to internet in Bulgaria was 64 percent. Although it remains among the lowest in the EU, the increase of nearly 30 percentage points in the period 2010–2016 brought the country higher up in the GCI ranking. 215. Despite this positive change in the macroeconomic and technological environment, Bulgaria's income per capita remains the lowest in the EU (47 percent of the EU average) and the negative population growth rate (−0.61 percent) considerably impacts future prospects. The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) performed by the World Bank Group in 2015 highlights two major challenges facing Bulgaria. The first is rapid population aging and a decline in the working age force. The second is low productivity growth of around 3 percent per capita. Consequently, the country received relatively poor scores on the respective indicators in the Global Competitiveness Report. With regard to the labor market, Bulgaria has slipped from the 54th to the 67th place, with very low marks for labor-employer relations, capacity to attract and retain talent, and labor productivity. 216. There is a continuing process of population aging, which results in reduction of the share of the population of ages below 15 and increase of the share of ages 65 and above. According to recent United Nations projections, by 2050, one in three Bulgarians is projected to be older than 65 and only one in two Bulgarians will be of working age. Because the proportion of the population that works is a key determinant of a country’s income level, its decline is likely to depress growth. The higher productivity grows, the easier it will be for Bulgaria to manage this demographic challenge. The World Bank Group estimations show that productivity will need --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 59 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan to grow by at least 4 percent per year over the next 25 years for Bulgaria to catch up with average EU income levels and thus, boost prosperity. 217. In 2017, Bulgaria’s population was 7,050,034 with people over 65 years accounting for 21 percent of the total. A recent EuroStat survey found that, in 2017, 35 percent of the population (2.5 million Bulgarians, mainly aged below 15 and over 65) is living in poverty. Thus, a serious challenge to the social development of the country is the risk of poverty and social exclusion, which is above the EU average. This unfavorable demographic situation is not only affecting economic development but is also placing a high burden to the national health system threatening its financial stability. 218. Currently, 73.2 percent of the total population lives in urban areas, 46 percent out of which is concentrated in six big cities, including the capital Sofia. This concentration places considerable pressure on the urban infrastructure, environment, and natural resources. The condition of technical infrastructure networks and amenities do not adequately meet urban needs and obstructs the proper functioning of cities. The physical environment and the buildings are worn out, while facilities like roads, pedestrian areas, landscaping, urban centers, and so on, are in poor condition. 219. Almost 99 percent of the population are supplied with drinking water, but the supply systems within settlements is physically and morally outdated with frequent failures, low efficiency of operation and high losses (of over 60 percent). The availability of sewerage networks and wastewater treatment plants are much less developed than water supply systems. According to Eurostat data from 2016, the share of towns and cities with sewerage systems is 67 percent and rural areas is 3.2 percent. 220. Another major challenge facing the country’s economy is low energy efficiency, which has a negative impact on competitiveness. This is due to the outdated energy infrastructure, leading to significant losses in energy transmission. The use of outdated technologies in production processes also accounts for the low productivity and the high energy intensity of the economy. In addition, the energy sector is challenged by its significant dependence on imported energy resources and rising energy prices. More than 70 percent of its gross consumption of natural gas, crude oil, and nuclear fuel comes from imports, primarily from Russia. 221. The instrument for overcoming these gaps in technology—investing in new equipment, technology and know-how—is not sufficiently intensive in Bulgaria. Both the state and private sectors allocate very little financial resources to research and development, which deepens the problem of technological backwardness. According to the national statistics data, the expenditure on research and development (R&D) in 2016 amounted to BGN 734 million (€375 million) which, in terms of R&D intensity, represents 0.78 percent of GDP. This is a considerable decrease compared to 2015 when R&D expenditure showed a relative peak of 0.96 percent of GDP. In 2010, Bulgaria adopted, for the first time, a national target to spend up to 1.5 percent of GDP on R&D by 2020. It is still below the current EU average of 2.03 percent, and far from the EU 2020 standards, under which total expenditure on R&D is to reach at least 3 percent of GDP. 222. From a regional development perspective, large disparities still exist between urban and rural areas, and between the development regions in Bulgaria. Problems such as negative natural --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 60 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan population growth, migration, poor age structure, low level of employment, and poor infrastructure need to be urgently addressed especially in the northwestern region NUTS 2 level and in smaller settlements. The intra-regional disparities are a major problem to achieving sustainable regional development. The development of key economic sectors like tourism, agriculture, and urban development are hindered by these disparities, and these are also designated among the most vulnerable to climate change.

3.1.2. Climate change context 223. As already acknowledged in Chapter 1 of this Strategy, Bulgaria is situated in one of the regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate change (mainly through temperature increase and extreme precipitation) and to the increased frequency of climate change-related extreme events, such as droughts and floods. The risks will not affect all people and territories equally due to different levels of exposure, existing vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacities. 224. Biodiversity, land, and aquatic ecosystems, as well as water and forest resources, are expected to be affected by the anticipated changes. In a domino effect, important sectors of the national economy, such as agriculture and tourism, will also be affected. According to the Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis Bulgaria will face climate-induced changes in three main areas: agricultural productivity, which is projected to decrease; energy demand that is expected to fall due to warming temperatures; and in both domestic and international tourism activities. 225. Cities and climate are co-evolving in a manner that is expected to amplify both the health effects of heat and the vulnerability of urban populations. In urban areas, extreme temperatures create greater health hazards for the elderly, especially for the poor and those living in low standard housing or the homeless. There is a risk for outdoor workers, employed in the construction sector or in public utilities maintenance. Extreme temperatures also put pressure on water supply systems in summer and on electricity supply systems for heating and cooling. In periods with extreme low temperatures, there is a risk for traffic and mobility due to icing and/or snowfall. 226. Among the more vulnerable groups of people are the elderly of ages over 65 and small children, as well as the poor concentrated mainly in the national periphery and in the northwestern region. Given the country’s demographic situation outlined in the previous section, it is to be expected that a considerable part of the population in Bulgaria is likely to be at high risk of climate change impacts. 227. The Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis finds that economic growth can be fully wiped out if Bulgaria faces the full impact of a 2°C rise in temperature by 2050, unless timely and effective measures are taken to make the economy more resilient. At the same time the analysis finds that with the development and implementation of an Adaptation Strategy 33 percent of the gross damages can be reduced at “no/low cost” to the economy. The sectoral risk assessment reports highlight key priority areas for action, summarized in the Action Plan to this Strategy. 228. Opportunities provided by the climate change are also identified in the sector reports and outlined in Section 1.2. of this Strategy, as well as in the SWOT analysis in Section 3.1.3. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 61 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan They are however conditional upon deliberate and planned adaptation actions, provision of which is the main goal of the Strategy and its Action Plan.

3.1.3. SWOT analysis 229. The following SWOT analysis identifies the main strengths and weaknesses of the current CCA framework in Bulgaria. It also outlines threats deriving from a changing climate, as well as opportunities conditional upon the implementation of a targeted strategy with clearly defined adaptation options for key sectors of the economy likely to be most affected by climate change. The analysis reflects both general and sector-specific aspects, while sector interrelations with respect to impacts of climate change are summarized in Annex 2. Policy responses are outlined in the following sections and a vision for the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy is built upon this analysis. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 62 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Table 1. SWOT analysis STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES • Stable political and microeconomic • Low productivity and low efficiency of the environment with a reasonable and economy resulting in low incomes of the predictable fiscal policy population • Well-developed national transmission and • Unfavorable demographic trends with transborder electricity grid large proportion of aging population • Nearly 100 percent of the population • Low energy efficiency of the economy and covered by centralized water supply, with a high dependence on imported energy growing rate of connections to sewerage resources systems • Urban areas with high and growing density, • Significant stock of hydraulic storage intensive traffic, reduced green and open capacity ensured by 216 multipurpose spaces large dams • Obsolete and often inadequate social, • Rich nature and biodiversity benefitting health, and educational infrastructure both tourism and agriculture development • Unsatisfactory condition and maintenance • Comprehensive strategic, legal, and of the existing transport infrastructure institutional framework addressing climate • High amortization rate of the water supply change in line with the EU approach networks causing considerable water loss • General awareness of potential INTERNAL • Depreciated energy infrastructure causing consequences of climate change exists at energy losses in the grid the policy-making level • Low research and development • Well-developed framework for action investments in the economy in general and focused on mitigation measures, in line in CCA in particular with the EU policy agenda • General lack of awareness and • Broad social consensus regarding the understanding of specific climate change urgent necessity of defining and impacts and CCA needs, both among the implementing DRM measures (mainly public and specific stakeholders relating to the water sector) • Lack of systematic studies of the longer- • Broad understanding of the need to take term impact of climate change and adaptation measures in some sectors of insufficient knowledge about sectors’ the economy (especially agriculture, water vulnerabilities and the opportunities management, tourism) deriving from climate trends • Increasing coverage of CCA in • Limited human resources and insufficient environmental impact assessments of professional training dedicated to CCA strategic documents (SEA) and of issues, coupled by poor coordination infrastructure projects (EIA) between the responsible institutions with • Adopted guidelines on mainstreaming respect to CCA mainstreaming environmental and climate change policies • Insufficient allocation of financial resources into the OPs co-financed by the ESIF in the to CCA actions period 2014–2020 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 63 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan OPPORTUNITIES THREATS • Better governance through mainstreaming • Increased frequency of adverse climatic climate change adaptation into key events, such as longer droughts, heat sectoral policies waves, heavy rainfalls, floods • Increased resilience of key sectors likely to • Increased economic losses from climate- be most affected by climate change and weather-related disasters • Increased possibility for EU funds • Damage to buildings, transport and urban absorption by mainstreaming climate infrastructures such as road, energy, and change considerations into the OPs co- water networks financed by ESIF • Endangered key services including food • Simplified and accelerated decision making supply and electricity, reduced mobility (or by implementing a single pool of at higher costs) and accessibility environmental data for the use of decision • Increased intensity of heat islands with makers consequent negative health effects • Establishment of more effective early • Decrease in precipitation leading to a warning systems and greater public reduction of the total water reserves in the awareness of health risks from climate country change • Water shortages and stress leading to • Development and introduction of more competition for water resources between selective equipment, facilities, and sectors resource-efficient technologies in the EXTERNAL • Increase of invasive species leading to sectors likely to be most affected by disturbed ecological balance climate change • Health impacts of floods, insufficient water • Prolonged summer season for seaside supply, water pollution from heavy rains, or tourism and shoulder seasons for all invasion of harmful water species tourism types • Expected increase in mortality due to • Development of new and alternative extreme weather events, summer heats, tourism products and destinations floods, and fires • Development and introduction of new crop • Shrunk winter tourist season due to shorter species requiring less water and promotion snow cover period and other factors such of good irrigation practices as higher risks of avalanches • Development of new forest shelterbelts, • Worsen conditions for outdoor recreation, thus increasing forest territories and related to higher precipitation and ecosystems humidity as well as extreme weather • Increased potential for renewable energy events development (solar, biomass) and bioenergy production through capture and conversion to biogas, with consequent environmental benefits and potential cost benefits for consumers • Development of urban/rural green infrastructure, thus supporting the decrease in air pollution and heat-related conditions --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 64 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

3.1.4. Policy response 230. The NDP BG2020 is the Government’s medium-term strategy document and shows the link between the priorities of the EU in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy and the national priorities of Bulgaria. It is promoting the Government’s policies to address the gap between Bulgaria and the EU with respect to incomes, institutions, and service delivery. The program includes goals to improve the competitiveness of the Bulgarian economy, the physical and institutional infrastructure, and the quality of human capital. 231. Moving toward a more sustainable economy is acknowledged as a priority, which is consistent with the Europe 2020 and commitments made with the ratification of the Paris Agreement. This includes binding commitments on both the use of EU funds (more than 20 percent of resources should be used for climate change-related activities) and policies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Sub-priority 3.5 of the program emphasizes in particular that the “national policy in the field of climate change should be directed toward adaptation of the most vulnerable sectors (agriculture, tourism, water resources, and forestry management, and so on) since the failure to act in this direction may lead to adverse economic consequences for our country in a longer term.” 232. Given the global nature of the processes, climate action in Bulgaria has been driven mainly by the country’s international (UNFCCC) and EU commitments. These include GHG reduction (mitigation), as well as improving resilience to climate change and natural disasters (adaptation). However, the policy and legal framework (the CCMA and the NAPCC) so far has covered mainly the mitigation aspect. Since 2007, Bulgaria is contributing to the EU common targets of 20 percent GHG reduction, 20 percent renewable energy in the final consumption and 20 percent increase in energy efficiency to be reached by 2020. The country is on track with the achievement of its individual share of these targets and has also committed to the EU GHG common reduction target of 40 percent by 2030, following the adoption of the new climate and energy package. 233. This National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy is intended to fill in the gap, taking into account that adaptation and mitigation are in principle closely linked and that prevention of climate change impacts is the reason for action in both cases. Thus, action in favor of adaptation in the sectoral policies must also consider mitigation (and vice versa) to exploit synergies, to resolve possible contradictions and to ensure good readability of the activities targeting both mitigation and adaptation. Bulgaria is already implementing its Third NAPCC, which could be a good basis for identifying potential synergies with the adaptation actions proposed in this Strategy. 234. By definition adaptation is not only about “anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimize the damage they can cause”, but also about “taking advantage of opportunities that may arise”. One of the main purposes of this Strategy is to inform the decision-making process of future sectoral policies development by identifying such opportunities and formulating appropriate actions to enable them. 235. CBAs have been performed for all sectors (as summarized in Section 4.3 and the Sector Assessment reports appended to this Strategy) and the overarching conclusion is that the effects of adaptation measures will be cost savings because of a decrease of potential damage caused --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 65 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan by climate change. The net present value (NPV) calculations show that investments in adaptation measures are economically efficient in all sectors assessed. Moreover, combining measures intended for various sectors, or for climate change mitigation will generate synergic effects, thus spreading the benefits while lowering the costs.

3.2. Vision for Development of Adaptation Action 236. Moving toward a more sustainable economy is an important government priority laid down in the NDP BG2020. Building resilience and adapting the key sectors of the national economy to a changing climate is acknowledged as an indispensable part of its sustainable growth. 237. This National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy fills in a gap in the Bulgarian climate change policy by mapping out the country’s approach for adapting key sectors of the economy to a changing climate. It is the reference document outlining the strategic framework and priorities with regard to climate change adaptation up to 2030. The Strategy is supported by in- depth vulnerability and risk assessments and highlights key priority areas for action on this basis. It is complemented by an Action Plan setting goals and priorities for improving capacity to adapt, formulating climate change adaptation measures per sector, providing a timeline for implementation of these measures, and pointing out the necessary resources and responsible institutions. 238. By adopting the Strategy, Bulgaria is taking the first step in meeting its obligations under Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change which stipulated that the parties “shall formulate, implement, and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change.” This is based on and in line with the main principles of the EU Adaptation Strategy.

3.2.1. Vision statement and long-term objective 239. The Bulgarian Government’s vision regarding climate change adaptation is as follows: ‘To develop the country’s highest possible level of resilience against climate change, by taking any measures needed and feasible, thus securing the undisturbed functioning of the country’s economic sectors, safeguarding its population’s health and well-being, and preserving its rich natural assets’ 240. The ultimate goal is the natural environment, buildings and infrastructures, health and emergency services, as well as the key economic sectors to become not only resilient to the risks, but also ready to maximize opportunities. 241. To achieve this goal, the MoEW will lead and coordinate action at the national level to reduce the vulnerability of natural, social, and economic systems in Bulgaria and to maintain and improve their capacity to adapt to the inevitable impacts of global climate change. 242. The adaptation action will aim at building resilience of the society and businesses which are able to make timely and well-informed decisions to address challenges and opportunities presented by a changing climate. The vision for such a society has driven the set of general --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 66 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan objectives in the Strategy and the choice of adaptation actions related to awareness rising, institutional and capacity building, and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the sectoral policies. 243. Building on this mission and vision, mainstreaming of climate change adaptation action in the existing and upcoming policy cycles and action planning, developed under the responsibility of involved ministries and local authorities shall be ensured, in line with this Strategy and Action Plan. All involved institutions will respect internationally agreed directions, principles of transparent organization, free information sharing, and practicing open in- and external communication. 244. The overall strategy of the climate change adaptation process follows and accepts the mission statements of all involved ministries. The long-term objective of the NAS is as follows: ‘To proactively pursue long-term high-impact economic, social, and ecological resilience and sustainability, to allow Bulgaria’s citizens, private sector, and public institutions to adequately prepare and protect themselves against vulnerabilities deriving from climate change’ Information and data sharing 245. Raising awareness and general education on climate change is, among others, an essential pre-condition for good adaptation. The sectoral analyses performed showed that in Bulgaria the degree of awareness and its implications on the economy is still very low. Overall, people recognize that adaptation to climate change is an urgent matter. However, they have very little knowledge on the implications of changing local microclimates and the measures that could be taken. Generally, local citizens are not aware of what is climate adaptation and why is it so important for the economy and for their cities in the longer term. They also do not have a clear view of how they are contributing to the problem and what they can do to reduce their own impact on the living environment. Therefore, further efforts are needed to improve the degree of awareness among local communities. This is closely linked to the need of providing better education in natural sciences, as well as introducing climate change issues in the curricula at all scholar levels. 246. Sharing information is an essential tool for building adaptation awareness. Information on climate change, impacts, and possible adaptation actions should be formulated in a user-oriented way to reach different audiences. Various formats for communication exist and have proven to be useful in other countries, such as personal consultations, Internet communication/platforms, and mass media to spread information on climate change, impacts, and possible adaptation actions. 247. A national web portal gathering tailored information on climate change, including on adaptation of various sectors, could be an excellent tool for disseminating relevant information. Such platform should be connected with other existing portals on sectoral policies (for example, water, biodiversity, forestry) and disaster risk prevention/management. A public repository of data, tools and analyses developed for this Strategy (MCA, CBA, and so on) could be created to serve both the decision-making process and further capacity building in climate change adaptation. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 67 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 248. This approach would be fully in line with one of the main priority pillars of the NDP BG2020 which outlines a broad package of measures for the development of e-governance (including achieving an “inter-connected administration”, optimization of information and communication resources through remote access to shared sources, building and maintenance of a National Information Centre, public repositories and so on). Secured co-financing 249. Streamlining climate change considerations into the sectoral policies is the instrument to secure allocation of financial resources to both mitigation and adaptation measures, thus respecting the commitment of 20 percent climate-related investments during the current programming period. The present strategy and its action plan will play an important role in planning and prioritizing respective adaptation activities. It will also provide a valuable tool to support the mainstreaming exercise for the next programming period, including integration of climate change adaptation measures into the EU financing beyond 2020. 250. The Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis Report suggests that allocating foreign funds equally across sectors is the optimal approach to achieve a 30 percent reduction in climate change damage and improved welfare of the citizens. 251. For the programing period 2014–2020, Bulgaria benefits from nearly €16 billion from ESIF, allocated as follows: €7.5 billion under nine OPs, €2.3 billion under RDP, and €5.3 billion for direct payments in agriculture. The OPs are co-financed by the state budget and support activities under topics such as good governance, transport, environment, innovation and competitiveness, regional development, human resources development, and science and education. Other EU instruments (such as LIFE+, Horizon 2020) and bilateral donor programs (EEA/Swiss and Norway Financial Mechanisms) are also available to support directly or indirectly climate adaptation actions. 252. Section 4.4. provides more detailed information on available and potential financial resources to support CCA actions per sector. It should be acknowledged that considerable resources are available to Bulgaria by 2020 from the ESIF, and that investments in large infrastructure are in general highly dependent on the availability (and absorption) of EU Funds. This trend is expected to continue in the next programming period as well. The Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) Mid Term Review, the European Court of Auditors' special report 31/2016 on progress towards integrating climate in the EU Budget16 and the related Council Conclusions (7495/17, ECOFIN),17 all point toward the current approach to mainstreaming as being broadly successful and should be strengthened. 253. The EU Budget proposal for the new programming period 2021-2027 envisages an increase of 5 percent (to 25 percent) of climate-related spending, as well as considerable increase (by 60 percent) of the LIFE Programme. As outlined in Section 4.4., options for further improvements in climate change financing are explored in a report for DG CLIMA published in 2017 – ‘Climate mainstreaming in the EU budget: Preparing for the next MFF’.18 It is therein 16 https://www.eca.europa.eu/en/Pages/DocItem.aspx?did=39853 17 http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-7495-2017-INIT/en/pdf 18 https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/1df19257-aef9-11e7-837e-01aa75ed71a1 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 68 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan proposed, among other improvements, to strengthen streamlining of the adaptation pillar, as well as to strengthen the reporting and assessment mechanism. 254. Considering the substantial financial needs to support adequate adaptation measures (especially in infrastructure investments), additional sources should be explored at the national level for the period beyond 2020 - subject to respective regulatory and economic impact assessments, which are not the purpose of this Strategy. 255. A 2-percent contribution levied on consumption goods to generate a major part of necessary adaptation funds is suggested in the Macro-Economic Implications of Climate Change Analysis. Another viable option would be to allocate part of the revenues (for example, 2 percent) deriving from the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) or from the instruments to be launched under the new Effort Sharing Regulation after 2020. Part of the revenues deriving from application of the polluter pays principle (for example charges related to the vehicle fleet or to various water uses) could also be considered for allocation to CCA action in the respective vulnerable sectors. Thus, mitigation and adaptation measures would be bound by ensuring that valuable resources for adaptation actions are coming from mitigation mechanisms (such as the ETS or the vehicle fleet related taxation). Such approach would be a matter of shifting priorities within existing financing allocations, without additional burden to the budget. 256. Attracting private investments and larger application of blended financial instruments through the international financial institutions (EIB, EBRD, WB) should also be considered, in line with their increased use in the ESIF allocation policy. In addition, insurance options should be explored further as it provides a valuable tool for adaptation in three ways: helping to manage climate change risks; providing incentives for risk prevention; and providing information on potential risks. 257. The experience so far has proved that a changing climate represents not only a threat to the economic activities, but also an opportunity for new businesses and investments. A fresh approach and paradigm shift are necessary to unlock the potential for value creation, which can additionally foster the country’s economic growth. Investment in ‘smart’ and innovative solutions is one of the opportunities that needs to be encouraged with this respect. Inter-institutional coordination 258. Currently in Bulgaria, in addition to the MoEW, a large number of ministries and other institutions, and municipalities, have responsibilities in relation to climate change adaptation. Respective capacity building measures should be envisaged to enable effective communication throughout the Strategy implementation process. Establishing a national portal with reliable climate-related data and information, as well as a repository of tools, analyses and reports developed under this Strategy would in this respect be instrumental 259. The complexity and cross-cutting nature of climate change adaptation requires that continued and enhanced attention is paid to ensuring efficient communication and coordination within and between the organizations involved if adaptation is to be carried out as effectively as possible. According to the CCMA, the MoEW is responsible for the facilitation of coordinative action, with other public institutions responsible for full and constructive cooperation in this adaptation coordination process. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 69 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 260. The MoEW will be supported in this endeavor by the National Expert Council on Climate Change. Sector-specific working groups (WGs) may be established to coordinate implementation of concrete adaptation actions. The Coordination Council on Climate Change is the best placed platform to build on cooperation at the decision-making level.

3.2.2. Timeframe for the Strategy 261. The implementation of this NAS is seen as a medium-term process which will progressively ascertain action needs and develop and implement adaptation measures in conjunction with the relevant stakeholders. 262. Article 9 of the CCMA sets a deadline of 2030 for the period of duration of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. It is obvious that the effects of climate change will come gradually, many of them expected to speed up after the expiry date of this strategy. The period until 2030 will therefore be used to timely and properly prepare the country for what is likely to come mostly after 2030. 263. Various deadlines for adaptation action are set in the action plan that comes with this strategy. The plan recognizes the need of sequencing actions, where some of them precede the possibility to (effectively) carry out other actions. Therefore, all actions are indicated as short, medium, or long term. Further explanation on this is provided in Chapter 5 of this strategy. 264. A mechanism for reporting on implementation of adaptation actions envisaged in the sectoral action plans is proposed in Chapter 6 to be coordinated by the MoEW. Biannual reporting will be performed in accordance with the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union, as recently approved in a co-decision procedure by the European Parliament and the Council. Two official reports – in 2025 and 2031 are envisaged, subject to adoption by the Coordination Council on Climate Change. One initial report will be developed in 2021 to assess the implementation of short-term measures of highest priority as identified in Chapter 5.3. A mid-term update of the strategy will be initiated as a check on the direction that has been taken, together with a review of the actions that are being implemented and a revision of the adaptation action plan as appropriate.

3.3. Guiding Principles in Strategy Implementation 265. To achieve an adequate level of adaptation to climate change, the Bulgarian Government will apply a number of leading and overarching guiding principles in the implementation of this adaptation strategy. These principles are straightforward and will provide clear direction and benefits to the country. They are inspired by and highly coincide with those included in the EC’s ‘Guidelines on developing adaptation strategies’.19 266. The EU Climate Change Adaptation Strategy rightfully sets out that “adjustments in natural and human systems in response to actual or expected climate change impacts, which moderate, harm, or exploit beneficial opportunities,” are at the roots of climate change adaptation (Adger et al. 2007). It further shows that “adaptation affects all levels of decision making, all regions as well as most sectors, so that it needs to be structured as a cross-sectoral, 19 Commission Staff working document (SWD 2013) 134 final of 16 April 2013 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 70 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan multilevel, and inter-regional activity bringing together actors with different knowledge, interests, and values” (Grothmann 2011; Lebel, Grothmann, and Siebenhüner 2010). 267. Principles (based on Adger and Vincent 2005; Brown et al. 2011; Prutsch et al. 2010; UKCIP 2005) that have internationally been recognized as key factors for good adaptation and that the Government of Bulgaria (GoB) herewith makes her own, are the following: (a) Any adaptation action undertaken should be sustainable. Responses to adaptation should not go against climate change mitigation efforts and should not block the carrying out of adaptation elsewhere. Article 7 of the Paris Agreement states that the goal of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, has a view to contribute to sustainable development. Thus, there is a clear linkage between climate change adaptation and Sustainable Development Goals (as outlined in Section 4.3). (b) Carry out adaptation in partnership. All stakeholders like from public institutions, civil society, and private sector, at all levels, should be identified and engaged. It should be ensured that they are well-informed and encouraged to work on adaptation. (c) Evidence-based adaptation is the preferred approach. Latest research, data, and practical experience should be applied in support of robust decision making. Closing of data gaps is a priority. (d) Apply a balanced approach. Social, natural, and economic development are influenced by a variety of stresses, of which climate change is one aspect. Thus, adaptation must take a holistic approach managing both, climate and non-climate risks. (e) Address risks associated with past and current climate variability and weather extremes. This forms the starting point for anticipatory action addressing longer-term climate change related risks and opportunities. Coordination and close synergies with DRM should be secured. (f) Adaptive action should be prioritized. Giving more attention to most affected sectors, to situations with long-term lifetimes or implications, to significant investment needs or high value stakes, or in case of critical national infrastructure, are examples. (g) Adaptation must be tailored to the scale required by the climate change challenge. Solutions need to be adjusted to individual situations, also addressing responsibilities and financing. (h) Adaptation should be flexible. A level of uncertainty over future climate will always remain. Adaptation options should be considered in certain fields (for example, horizontal and soft options with relatively low costs, and/or vertical options in sectors with long-term planning horizons). This creates decisions that can be adjusted easily. (i) Adaptation needs to be transparent. The effects of various adaptation options, both in the near and long term, should be communicated in full, providing as much detail as possible which, among others, include the level of risk to be accepted, as well as to agree on solutions that are fair and balanced. (j) Continuously review the effectiveness, efficiency, equity, and legitimacy of adaptation decisions. This will allow for their gradual improvement in line with the evolution of evidence and knowledge on climate change impacts. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 71 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Chapter 4. Strategic Objectives 268. This section summarizes strategic objectives that have been developed by this project for adaptation to climate change in Bulgaria. These include both general strategic objectives and for each sector. It then outlines the types of adaptation options available for addressing these strategic objectives for each sector. Cross-cutting issues, tradeoffs, and synergies between sectors in relation to climate change adaptation are then addressed. Finally, the financial resources available for funding adaptation options to support the strategic objectives for each sector are summarized. 269. The strategic objectives outlined in this chapter are the foundation for the further development of operational objectives and proposed activities in the Action Plan as presented in Chapter 5 and Annex 3.

4.1. Strategic Objectives

4.1.1. General strategic objectives 270. Based on the conclusions and guiding principles given in Chapter 3 and following general guidance documents (including EC 2013b), a number of general strategic objectives for this climate change adaptation strategy have been developed. This has also considered the main common themes for adaptation options arising from the sector assessment reports. These general strategic objectives should be seen as common objectives guiding the overall cohesion and coordination of the Strategy and Action Plan. The proposed general strategic objectives are as follows:  Mainstream and integrate climate change adaptation. This includes strengthening the policy and legal framework for adaptation and the integration of adaptation considerations into existing national and sectoral plans and programs.  Build institutional capacity for climate change adaptation. This includes building expertise, training, the knowledge base, monitoring and research to enable and support adaptation actions.  Raise awareness on climate change adaptation. This includes enhancing education and public awareness about climate change adaptation issues and the need for adaptation actions to be implemented in Bulgaria to build public acceptance and participation of adaptation-related policies and actions.  Build climate change resilience. This includes strengthening infrastructure and asset management and the protection of natural capital and covers water system infrastructure, energy supply infrastructure, and protecting and enhancing ecosystem services including those provided by forest resources).

4.1.2. Strategic objectives for sectors 271. The following strategic objectives for each sector are derived from specific sectoral context and adaptation needs as addressed in the sector assessment reports and have been developed in consultation with the expert authors. They also link to the general strategic objectives given earlier. Operational objectives and adaptation options related to each of these strategic objectives are outlined in more detail in Section 5.1 and Annex 3. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 72 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Agriculture  Sustainably manage agricultural practices for adaptation to climate change  Promote adaptive capacity and awareness in agricultural sector  Promote research and innovation for climate change adaptation  Strengthen policy and legal framework for adaptation in the agricultural sector Biodiversity and ecosystem services  Enhance ecosystem governance  Enhance knowledge management and stakeholder communication for adaptation  Create space for BD&ES services  Increase climate change resilience by reducing pressures not related to climate change  Sustainable use of regulating and cultural ecosystem services for adaptation Energy  Build institutional capacity, knowledge, and use of data for adaptation  Mainstream climate change considerations into energy sector policies, plans, and financial mechanisms  Incorporate climate resilience into design and engineering  Increase resilience of energy supply Forestry  Enhance knowledge base and awareness for climate change adaptation  Enhance and protect the forest resources  Improve potential for sustainable use of forest resource Human health  Enhance governance for adaptation  Build knowledge base and awareness for adaptation  Adapt external environment to reduce health impacts of climate change Tourism  Mainstream climate change adaptation into policy development and legal framework for tourism sector  Enhance awareness and knowledge base for climate change adaptation in tourist sector  Build adaptive capacity in tourism sector  Develop specific adaptation actions for the tourism sector Transport  Build institutional capacity and knowledge base of the transport sector  Mainstream climate change adaptation considerations into key planning and decision- making processes --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 73 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Urban environment  Strengthen policy and legal framework to mainstream adaptation to climate change  Build adaptive capacity  Develop financial, social, and risk management policies for adaptation to climate change  Enhance knowledge management, research, education, and stakeholder communication for adaptation Water  Enhance adaptive governance  Strengthen knowledge base and awareness for adaptation  Enhance adaptive management of water system infrastructure 272. To ensure effective and efficient progress for all the above general and sectoral strategic objectives and the associated adaptation action plans, strong coordination is required between relevant ministries and agencies across all sectors. This is particularly required to promote mainstreaming and integration of climate change adaptation considerations into existing national and sectoral plans and programs. 273. It is proposed that the MoEW is best placed to perform a coordinating and facilitating role for the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. This would require working in partnership with other ministries and responsible agencies for implementing CCA actions. A reporting and coordination mechanism is proposed in Chapter 6, to be further operationalized by the MoEW with the support of the National Expert Council on Climate Change or respective working groups, as needed.

4.2. Adaptation Options 274. This section briefly outlines adaptation options available for each sector. It should be noted that the term adaptation options in this context means a range of actions that may be undertaken in combination rather than mutually exclusive alternatives. The categorization of adaptation options (for example, according to mainstreaming CCA into the policy and legal framework, building institutional capacity, developing the knowledge base, awareness raising, and so on) is consistent with guidelines on developing adaptation strategies and options (for example, EC 2013b; UKCIP 2007) and links to the strategic objectives for each sector given in Section 4.1. 275. For each sector, a range of adaptation options have been identified in the Sector Assessment Reports. The options can be identified for ‘horizontal’ (covering the whole sector) and ‘vertical’ (addressing specific subsectors) levels and further grouped according to the type of option. It should be noted that horizontal options can support vertical options by enabling specific subsector actions. Types of options together with examples of specific options for each type are given in the following sector summaries. Note that further in-depth explanation of the rationale for the adaptation options given and lists of the full range of specific options identified for each sector are given in the Sector Assessment Reports. The selection of activities in the Action Plan, explained in Section 5.3 and given in full in the Action Plan (Annex 3), is based --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 74 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan on expert assessment of the full range of adaptation options given in the Sector Assessment Reports. 276. It is noted that climate adaptation actions can include both (a) ex ante actions that reduce the potential impact of future climate change or extreme events, and (b) actions that support ex post risk recovery after the climate impact has been observed (for example, insurance and emergency response DRM actions). The identified adaptation options include both these two types of actions, although most options identified and prioritized focus on ex ante risk reduction, which in general is lower cost than disaster recovery.

4.2.1. Agriculture 277. Adaptation actions need to be undertaken at both the national and farm levels, with the engagement of regional/local administration and communities. The responsibility of developing sectoral climate change policies and drafting guidelines and other regulatory documents should be undertaken by the MAFF in collaboration with all other relevant ministries, government organizations, and main stakeholders. At the same time, the policy should be consistent with EU and international policies and commitments. Local authorities, business companies, and society as a whole, should also have a role to play. For example, some adaptation actions (such as introducing innovations in the farms, growing new plants adaptive to climate change) would require the direct participation of agricultural holders and farmers 278. Adaptation options have been identified and grouped into horizontal and vertical levels (also see the Sector Assessment Report – Appendix 1). Vertical adaptation options are grouped into agricultural productivity (crops); livestock production; and natural resources (soil erosion and desertification, water shortage and irrigation, fisheries and aquaculture). Horizontal adaptation options are grouped into building adaptive capacity; improving awareness; strengthening research, technology development, and innovation; risk management; and legal framework. Table 2 summaries these with examples. Table 2. Summary of agricultural adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Vertical Options Adjust timing of farm operations; grow Agricultural productivity thermophilic crops; and develop suitable (crops) Sustainable irrigation systems. management of Develop systems and mechanisms for storing agricultural practices Livestock production water on farms; diversify livestock farming; for adaptation to and save existing pastures for grazing. climate change Natural resources Increase the use of perennial crops; improve management (soil, water, water management practices; and maintain fisheries, and aquaculture) and improve existing aquaculture habitats. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 75 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Horizontal Options Develop climate change training; and Building adaptive capacity Promote adaptive develop knowledge dissemination actions. capacity and awareness Engage in wider dissemination of CCA in agricultural sector Improving awareness knowledge to reach local farmers; and establish a formal platform for aquaculture. Promote research and Research, technology Develop research on new crop varieties; and innovation for climate development, and develop farm-level resource management change adaptation innovation innovations. Strengthen policy and Develop insurance and risk management Risk management legal framework for programs adaptation in the Update and amend the legislation affecting agricultural sector Legal framework fisheries and aquaculture

4.2.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 279. The approach to identifying adaptation options uses an ecosystems-based approach to CCA. The grouping of adaptation options is based on the target groups and types of measures. The first two groups are mainly related to the national-level coordination and national and local action. The last three groups are options for operationalizing ecosystems-based adaptation at the local level and summarize the key themes identified during informal consultations with stakeholders. 280. It is noted that legal and methodological gaps for BD&ES outlined in the Sector Assessment Report (see Appendix 2) contribute to a higher level of uncertainty than other sectors. To reduce this uncertainty and the related societal risks, it is important to implement adaptation options from all five groups of action outlined in Table 3 to take into account their mutual links. Table 3. Summary of biodiversity and ecosystems services adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Strategic planning and Develop and adopt the new Biodiversity implementation Strategy and Action Plan and a new Green legislation Infrastructure Strategy with regard to CCA Adjusting sectoral Revise the CCMA and sectoral strategies/ legislation to climate legislation to include provisions of CCA legislation Strategy Enhance ecosystem governance Linking emissions statistics to new environmental Create carbon environmental accounts accounts Create specialized education courses for Education for ecosystem administrations responsible for thinking implementing CCA and biodiversity legislation --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 76 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Ecosystem data interoperability between Open and reuse data authorities and other actors Communication and Enhance knowledge understanding of Communication and tools for informed management and ecosystem processes and prioritization of research and practical action stakeholder climate change as communication for pressure adaptation Use of local biodiversity Targeted collection of folk customs and knowledge traditional knowledge Promote ecosystem thinking among Use of citizen science volunteers Reclaim space from grey infrastructure Regional/local ‘red lines’ to prevent loss of Create space for BD&ES Create refugia, reduce ecosystem services vital for CCA fragmentation Increase climate change Reduce pollution and Estimate carrying capacity for vital resilience by reducing disturbance ecosystems and production capacity for their pressures not related to Reduce overexploitation services climate change Optimal use of existing Sustainable use of Use genetic resources for resilience ecosystem services regulating and cultural ecosystem services for Ecosystem services for Ecosystem restoration—a long-term adaptation CCA as new opportunity business opportunity for business and society

4.2.3. Energy 281. A set of adaptation options is proposed in the Sector Assessment Report (see Appendix 3) that can help increase the climate resilience of Bulgaria’s energy sector. The measures that are the focus of the report are those specifically addressing near- and long-term climate risks of high magnitude, as presented in Chapter 1. Given that the energy sector in Bulgaria is facing climate-related challenges, and as there are uncertainties over future climate change, these measures have been selected because they will help improve the resilience of the sector today, as well as in the future. These are summarized in Table 4. Table 4. Summary of energy sector adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Provide training to the MEn, regulator, and Institutional capacity and Build institutional wider energy sector decision makers/ knowledge networks capacity, knowledge, operators on CCA and use of data for Translate monitoring, Meetings with the NIMH to define needs for adaptation forecasting, and weather climate services and centralized agreement data for the energy sector for provision of climate services --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 77 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Mainstream climate Undertake an inventory of strategies, policies, Mainstream climate change considerations plans, standards, and so on, to identify where change considerations within energy sector climate resilience should be incorporated into energy sector policies and plans policies, plans, and Review existing mechanisms for financial financial mechanisms Financial mechanisms to protection in other countries and evaluate build resilience potential for implementation Ensure climate resilience is integrated into Climate resilience in water resources management affecting the power plants and mines Incorporate climate operation of large hydro power plants resilience into design Climate resilience in and engineering Develop maps showing climate risk zones for transmission and climatic parameters relevant to T&D distribution (T&D) infrastructure infrastructure Diversify supply to Continue to develop regional electricity increase overall energy trading and interconnections Increase resilience of system resilience energy supply Energy efficiency in Advance efforts to motivate end users to buildings and industry implement energy saving measures systems

4.2.4. Forestry 282. The adaptation options included here (also see the Sector Assessment Report – Appendix 4) will help safeguard the sector so that its many services will continue to be delivered for society. These include options to enhance knowledge base and awareness, enhance and protect the forest resources for climate change adaptation, and improve potential for sustainable use of forest resource. Many of the options are envisaged in the ‘Strategic Plan for the Development of the Forestry Sector in the Republic of Bulgaria 2014–2023’ and the further development of these adaptation options should be in coordination with the delivery of this plan. A summary of forestry adaptation option is given in Table 5. Table 5. Summary of forestry sector adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Research, education, and Create a National Forestry Extension Service Enhance knowledge extension and a system for dissemination of results base and awareness for climate change Model potential performance of important Research to support adaptation tree species under different climate change adaptation scenarios and timescales Resilience in regenerating, Enhance and protect expanding, and Enhance Bulgaria’s forest nursery capacity the forest resources strengthening the forest and system for seed collection and storage resource --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 78 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Maintenance of biodiversity, genetic Measures to limit potential of invasive diversity, and forest species to enter forest ecosystems resilience Build national system for rapid fire detection Management of forest and response to this and other natural resources calamities Improving the potential for Review and expand current building long-term use of higher- standards to improve the position of wood as valued wood products a material Improving potential for sustainable use of Improving potential for Establish a program to promote the forest resource sustainable and more installation of modern energy and heat environmentally friendly production systems for households, use of wood biomass for businesses, and small communities production of energy

4.2.5. Human health 283. Planned adaptation to the health impacts of climate change comprises a broad range of public health interventions (also see Sector Assessment Report – Appendix 5). Successful planned adaptation depends on an awareness of and information about the problem, on the existence of effective response strategies, and on the availability of the resources, information, and incentives to implement them. The main challenges in developing adaptation strategies for human health are to account for the diversity of health impairments, regional conditions, and adaptation actors, and for the large uncertainty about future changes in most climate-sensitive health risks. Adaptation options outlined in Table 6 include those for enhancing governance, building the knowledge base and awareness, and adapting the external environment to reduce health impacts of climate change. Table 6. Summary of human health adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Policy, legal, and Development of National Strategy and institutional framework Action Plan on health and climate change Administrative, Establishment of inter-disciplinary climate infrastructure, change and human health (CCHH) WG to Enhance governance for communication, financial, provide communication, coordination, adaptation and technical capacity initiation, control, updating, and so on. Thematic workshops, lectures, and training Professional capacity on the health effects from climate change for all professionals and stakeholders Public education and Build knowledge base Multimedia campaign on CCHH awareness on adaptation and awareness for adaptation Monitoring, data collecting, Build national monitoring and early warning and early warning system for CCHH --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 79 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Research and knowledge Assessing health vulnerability at the national base and local level Adapting built and natural Development of concept and guidelines for environment to reduce adjustment of public built environment to Adapt external health impact of climate climate change. environment to reduce change health impacts of Development register of groups vulnerable climate change to climate change at the national and local Socioeconomic capacity level and special program for work with these groups

4.2.6. Tourism 284. Adaptation options proposed for tourism are based on the assessment of risk and vulnerability and the policy context as presented in the Sector Assessment Report (see

Appendix 6) and outlined in Chapters 1 and 2. These are summarized in Table 7 and cover options for mainstreaming CCA into policy development and the legal framework related to the tourism sector, enhancing awareness and knowledge base for climate change adaptation in the sector, building adaptive capacity, and developing of specific adaptation actions for existing and new tourism. Table 7. Summary of tourism sector adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Mainstream climate Development of a Sectoral Development of NAS and Action Plan for CCA change adaptation into Climate Change Policy in the tourism sector policy development and legal framework for Comprehensive legal Develop insurance and risk management tourism sector framework programs Awareness-raising Enhance awareness and measures on climate Develop a national database (online portal) knowledge base for change and its impacts on containing CCA specific information climate change the sector adaptation in tourist Develop research projects and programs for sector Strengthening the sector climate change impacts on tourism knowledge base development Regional and sub sectoral Conduct adaptive capacity assessments in Build adaptive capacity assessment of adaptive nine tourist regions in tourism sector capacity Capacity building Develop climate change training Adapting existing tourism Develop and implement adaptation Development of specific sectors measures for summer and winter tourism adaptation actions for the tourism sector Developing new tourism Develop new tourism types/products and/or and management solutions destinations --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 80 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 4.2.7. Transport 285. There are several areas where adaptation options with relevance to transport infrastructure can be identified, as shown in Table 8 (also see Sector Assessment Report –

Appendix 7). These include those related to building institutional capacity and the knowledge base regarding CCA to support the formulation and implementation of policies. They also focus on mainstream CCA considerations into the planning and decision-making processes. This includes through project preparation, operation and maintenance (including in relation to extreme weather-related events) and updating design norms to account of climate change. Table 8. Summary of transport sector adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Building institutional Training needs assessment and Build institutional capacity implementation of training programs capacity and knowledge base of the transport Introduce and/or improve CCA relevant data sector Building knowledge base collection practice and perform dedicated studies Reviewing and enhancing Development of guidelines for considering project preparation Mainstream climate CCA issues in the project management cycle procedures change adaptation Reviewing and improving Develop and implement program for considerations into key operation and strengthening road network resilience to planning and decision- maintenance extreme weather events making processes Reviewing and updating Update of guidelines for design of roads’ design norms culverts and bridges 4.2.8. Urban environment 286. The range of adaptation options for the urban environment sector (see Sector Assessment Report – Appendix 8) reflects the scope and complexity of climate change impacts in this context. These are focused on strengthening the policy and legal framework to mainstream adaptation to climate change, building adaptive capacity, developing financial, social, and risk management policies, and enhancing knowledge management, research, education, and stakeholder communication (as shown in Table 9). Identified adaptation options include those directly or indirectly targeted toward DRM. The interdependence of these adaptation options means that their effectiveness depends on their appropriate combination. Table 9. Summary of urban environment adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Mainstream CCA in Incorporate CCA into the new National regional and urban Housing Strategy Strengthen policy and development legal framework to Revising and amending mainstream adaptation legislative documents to Mainstream CCA requirements in all to climate change transpose CCA issues after legislative documents related to regional a Regulatory Impact and spatial/urban planning Assessment --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 81 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Technology/construction - implementing new Promote green, smart, and innovative cities, Eurocodes and technical buildings and technologies planning, design, norms in planning, design, and certification construction technologies, and building materials Developing sustainable institutions capable of Organize horizontal coordination between providing CCA policy at all MRDPW, MoEW, MEn, MAFF, MF, and MI Build adaptive capacity administrative levels Institutional, Build emergency and DRM units’ capacity, administrative, and expert provide sufficient and modern equipment, capacity and financial support Develop financial, social Revise existing financial instruments and and risk management Financial, social, and design new ones for CCA and DRM, including policies for adaptation insurance policies for energy efficiency and construction to climate-change renovation of buildings Information—securing institutionally regulated Create common standards for the type, exchange of information structure, scope, and format of metadata and data according to and data, harmonized with EU at the city INSPIRE Directive level obligations Enhance knowledge management, research, Identify priority scientific topics, linked with Research—provide education and the city, open and green spaces, buildings, common long-term vision stakeholder infrastructure, construction materials and and objectives in urban communication for human health, and their risk resilience environment CCA research adaptation assessment Education— ‘Train the Establish joint multidisciplinary courses at trainers’ on CCA different educational levels Partnership—work in Organize a social network for support of partnership and vulnerable groups communicate knowledge 4.2.9. Water 287. The suggested adaptation options (also see Sector Assessment Report – Appendix 9) are grouped according to three strategic objectives. These refer to enhancing adaptive governance, strengthening the knowledge base and awareness for adaptation, and enhancing adaptive management of water system infrastructure (including design, construction, and operation). Such options also link to water-related DRM in particular for floods and droughts. Types of adaptation options with examples are given in Table 10. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 82 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Table 10. Summary of water sector adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Adaptation of legal framework to make it Enhance adaptive instrumental for Clarify roles and responsibilities for CCA governance addressing climate change impacts Use of research and Provide research support to RBDs through education institutions framework agreements Strengthen knowledge Awareness, education, CCA training of public administration and base and awareness and training water operators for adaptation Extend and upgrade CCA related monitoring Monitoring and flexibility networks of precipitation, water resources, and water use Adapting design and Revise and update design and construction Enhance adaptive construction norms management of water system infrastructure Develop methodology and assess adaptive Adapting operations capacity of significant water infrastructure 4.3. Cost-benefit Analysis 288. Benefits for adaptation actions in the all sectors can be viewed temporally, as either offering short-term or long-term benefits. Actions that offer short-term benefits are those that improve resilience to extreme events or those that improve the enabling environment and governance framework to facilitate more effective adaptation in the future (for example mainstreaming climate change within sector policies and plans and building institutional capacity and knowledge networks). Actions offering longer-term benefits are linked to sectoral assets, which frequently have long life spans, and include amendments to existing or planned assets to ensure climate resilience (for instance, water and energy infrastructure). 289. Benefits can also be viewed in terms of the wider socioeconomic or environmental benefits they offer. For example, developing better and improved early warning systems would contribute to businesses being able to respond in an efficient manner to unfavourable climatic events, thus reducing the losses from extreme weather events. 290. A CBA has been undertaken for each sector (explained in more detail in the Sector Appendices, with methodological details and assumptions given in the Annexes of the Sector Appendices) and focus mainly on the assessment of soft adaptation measures. The benefits gained as a result of their implementation are best exemplified through the quantification of saved costs in main performance indicators (for example, in the case of agriculture: crop output, crop yield and livestock production). Considering the complex impact of the adaptation options on each sector, these were not separately quantified in the current CBAs. For each sector net present values (NPV) have been calculated to illustrate the monetary value of avoided losses as --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 83 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan a result of implementing adaptation measures, and cost effectiveness estimates (benefit/cost ratios) are given to illustrate the benefits achieved in relation to the required investments/costs20. 291. An overview of the results for the NPVs and cost effectiveness for each sector is given in Table 11. This shows the benefits of the adaptation measures included in the CBA in each sector under different climate scenarios until 2050. The overall conclusions from these results are that in almost all scenarios the NPV is positive, showing that investments in adaptation measures are economically efficient. 292. Sector conclusions are given in more detail in the Sector Appendices. However, Table 11 illustrates that in all sectors the implementation of adaptation measures will have a positive impact on the sector and that in some sectors, such as forestry, investments in adaptation measures can have very high potential effects. This is illustrated by the high benefit/cost ratios which indicate that investments are relatively small compared with potential benefits. 20 The NPV of an adaptation option is given by the present value of the estimated benefits and costs. If NPV is more than zero, this indicates that the investment is efficient and incremental benefits of adaptation exceed the incremental resource costs. If NPV is <0 or B/C is <1, then the adaptation measures add no net benefit to the Urban Environment sector. If NPV is >0 or B/C is >1, then it adds positive benefits. The positive value of NPV confirms that investments for adaptation are efficient. The benefit-cost ratio (B/C) is the ratio of the present value of benefits to the present value of costs. When the B/C ratio is more than one, the present value of the option’s benefits is larger than the present value of its costs. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 84 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Agriculture Biodiversity & Energy Forestry Human Health Tourism Transport Urban Water Ecosystems Environment NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. NPV Cost-eff. Climate scenarios (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ (€ mln.) (Benefit/ Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Cost ratio) Realistic scenario +2°C 2 1.0 7,056 140.4 67 1.1 22,324 435.9 5 1.1 108 16.5 683 2.0 8,786 1.6 74 29.2 Optimistic scenario +2°C 26 1.3 8,946 177.8 115 1.1 38,177 744.7 9 1.2 135 20.3 735 2.1 13,285 1.9 86 33.9 Pessimistic scenario +2°C -23 0.8 5,165 103.1 19 1.0 6,470 127.0 1 1.0 81 12.6 633 2.0 4,287 1.3 62 24.5 Realistic scenario +4°C 292 3.9 7,202 143.3 476 1.3 37,240 726.3 107 3.2 144 21.6 1,420 3.2 20,523 2.3 99 38.7 Optimistic scenario +4°C 386 4.9 9,247 183.7 548 1.4 53,093 1,035.1 119 3.4 179 26.7 1,502 3.3 29,741 2.9 115 44.9 Pessimistic scenario +4°C 198 3.0 5,158 102.9 403 1.3 21,387 417.7 96 2.9 109 16.6 1,344 3.0 11,304 1.7 83 32.5 Table 11. Benefits of adaptation measures in sectors under different climate scenarios until 2050 (in €, million) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 85 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 4.4. Cross-Cutting Issues, Tradeoffs, and Synergies 293. This section briefly outlines the nature of cross-cutting issues, tradeoffs, and synergies in relation to CCA in Bulgaria. The focus here is on the interrelationships in the context of adaptation strategy and actions (interdependencies in the context of risks and vulnerabilities are addressed in Section 1.3 and Annex 2.) More detailed assessment of specific cross-cutting issues, tradeoffs, and synergies can be found in the sector assessment reports. 294. Due to strong interdependencies between sectors, the process of adaptation cannot be undertaken in isolation and needs to be placed within the broader context of a country’s sustainable development policies and strategies and consider impacts and adaptations across all sectors. In addition, further knowledge is needed on spillover effects of impacts and adaptation at the regional and global levels. 295. The wider linkage between climate change adaptation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) is emphasized (UNCCS 2017). Adaptation is linked in particular to SDG 13 which aims to ‘take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts’ and has specific targets that include to (a) Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters; (b) Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning; and (c) Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. However, adaptation is also strongly interlinked with a number of other SDGs. For example, progress toward increased resilience to climate change is also likely to contribute to SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being for People), SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 15 (Life on Land – related to sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystem services). 296. As noted in Section 3.2.1, inter-institutional coordination is needed to address cross- sectoral climate change adaptation issues. This requires the development of coordination mechanisms for the ministries and other institutions, and municipalities, with responsibilities in relation to climate change adaptation. The MoEW is responsible for the facilitation of coordinative action with support from the National Expert Council on Climate Change. 297. A number of key emerging themes across the sector assessment reports are summarized in the following paragraphs with some sector examples given:  Sector interdependencies may be positive and negative (as illustrated by the positive and negative interdependences tables for risks and vulnerabilities in Annex 2). For example, an increase of ‘green agriculture’ may support cropland ecosystem resilience and raise crop yield but intensification of agriculture can come at the expense of biodiversity through pollution, land grabbing, and diversion of water for irrigation. In the case of tourism, adaptation activities in several sectors (forestry, urban environment, BD&ES services, human health, and agriculture) are identified as having the potential for positive synergies.  Adaptation measures in one sector may impact a number of other sectors. Therefore, the analysis of tradeoffs and synergies should be considered in a holistic --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 86 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan manner. For example, creating green belts between croplands and roads (for BD&ES services) can have adaptation benefits for agriculture due to the potential for water filtration, microclimate regulation functions, and pollination benefits, as well as for protecting the transport infrastructure from the wind and snow.  Possible measures for a sector to adapt to climate change can lie outside the direct control of that sector. This is particularly the case for the health sector for which key actions affecting human health are rooted in areas such as sanitation and water supply, education, agriculture, trade, tourism, transport, development, and housing. For example, a review of public health responses to extreme heat in Europe identified transport policies, building design, and urban land use as important elements of national and municipal heat waves and health action plans (WHO 2009). This highlights the need for cross-sectoral understanding of the adaptation measures that potentially impact human health.  Relationships between adaptation options also include intra-sectoral synergies and tradeoffs, for example, within the biodiversity and ecosystem services sector there are tradeoffs typically between provisioning and regulating/cultural services.  Management of water resources. Key inter-sector tradeoffs and synergies concern the effect of adaptation measures on the management of resources. Management of water resources is a major cross-cutting issue, affecting the energy sector, the water sector, agriculture, BD&ES, urban environment, and tourism. Adaptation measures and associated actions within the energy sector could have positive and negative consequences for stakeholders in other water using sectors. In particular, the energy sector’s use of water for cooling processes will need to be made considering other users. Within the context of the Danube River Basin, the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River provides a key forum for coordinated action and the Danube RBMP (2015) provides a framework for collaboration.  There are strong sector interdependencies with regard to infrastructure services. All sectors depend on the efficient working of infrastructure for energy, transport, water, and information and communication technology networks. Thus, any climate-related impact affecting these infrastructures will have wide consequences for other sectors. Furthermore, there are interdependencies between infrastructures which can result in cascade failure, whereby the failure of one type of infrastructure leads to the failure of another. Adaptation actions to address such climate risks and vulnerabilities therefore bring benefits to all sectors. In the case of the urban environment sector, its efficient functioning depends on all these infrastructures and requires their appropriate combination and coordination in urban planning.  Cross-cutting macroeconomic and social issues. In the selection and design of appropriate and effective adaptation policy responses it is important to understand the cross-cutting demographic, social, and economic issues and policies that also affect the risks and vulnerabilities to climate change. For example, a major cross-cutting issue with a strong effect on tourism is the aging population in all EU countries which impacts the type of tourist demand. Social policy interventions in low-income urban settings have the potential to reduce the harmful effects of climate extremes on health and --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 87 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan therefore, have a role in DRM. The macroeconomic analysis outlined in Section 1.4 demonstrates the costs of inaction and the potential benefit to the economy of adaptation actions across all sectors.  DRM is a key cross-cutting issue. Adaptation options in all sector assessment reports include coverage of this issue and this highlights the requirement for a coordinated response. In the case of flooding, the Danube Flood Risk Management Plan (DFRMP) provides a useful framework for collaboration. 298. It is necessary also to understand and promote synergies between adaptation and mitigation to ensure more effective and efficient policies within and across sectors. Intra- sectorial synergies should be considered at various levels (local, regional and national). This is especially highlighted in the case of agriculture for which many adaptation options have positive impacts on mitigation of climate change. Other sectors for which adaptation actions will have key implications for mitigation (GHG emissions) include energy, urban environment, transport, tourism, and forestry. 299. Non-exhaustive examples are summarized in the following paragraphs for reference. These are identified in a 2017 Report on Mitigation & Adaptation Synergies in the NDCs of the Nordic Council of Ministers and considered sector-relevant in any country. Agriculture  Examples of measures that can contribute to both adaptation and mitigation include measures that reduce soil erosion and improve soil health, measures for conserving soil moisture, and improving and optimizing crop rotations by choices of species or varieties.  Actions to sequester carbon in the soil contribute to restoring degraded land and mitigating climate change, but also help preserve ecosystems and water resources, which will bring adaptation benefits.  Improving ecosystem health by incorporating practices such as organic farming and sustainable land management, which increase resilience while lowering emissions.  In the area of livestock, there is a focus on enhancing adaptive capacity through both breeding and water management, while improving production practices that all can lead to reducing emissions from livestock, improved income of farmers, and greater food security. Forestry  Synergies within forestry mean carbon sequestration and prevention of soil degradation, increased biodiversity preservation, increased resource productivity, as well as forestry as an economic activity and potentially important source of income.  Afforestation and reforestation programmes make it possible to preserve one of the world’s most important GHG sinks but will also prevent soil erosion and therefore reduce the risk of floods and landslides.  Agroforestry is an integrated system combining agriculture and forestry to create productive and sustainable land-use systems by growing trees and shrubs around or among pastures or fields. When correctly implemented, agroforestry systems bring --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 88 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan adaptation benefits, including protection against floods, increased water retention capacity, while simultaneously generating benefits from mitigation actions such as carbon storage and decrease in loss of soil organic matter. Energy  Identified synergies are related to renewable energy, mostly in terms of bioenergy, but also solar and water, in terms of income and energy security, as well as energy efficiency both in end-user, transmission, and conversion perspectives.  Improved energy access and decreased energy poverty hold important mitigation and adaptation possibilities. Energy development and access to energy, especially bioenergy, can be seen as a mitigation action, but bring the added benefit of increasing people’s adaptive capacity.  Mitigation options in the energy sector are expected to have co-benefits, such as improved air quality from increased renewables and improved access to energy, for example from localized biogas production.  Increased use of biogas systems has the added benefit of providing organic fertilizers, which will boost food production. Urban environment / Transport  Examples of potential synergies in urban policies include building urban micro grids and distributed renewables that provide local low-carbon solutions, thus increasing the resilience of the power system.  Increasing urban green areas provides several synergies, such as reducing urban heat islands, storm water capacity, urban ecosystem services, improved air quality and recreation.  Adopting effective waste management practices provides potential for biogas production and fertilizers, where the latter can increase agricultural yields, as well as reducing methane emissions in the atmosphere. Better waste management also results in improved resource efficiency with broad positive effects on material flows.  Improved transportation systems that allow low-carbon, energy efficient, low- congestion and mass transport, creates mitigation possibilities while also improving mobility and access to jobs. 300. Bulgaria is already implementing its 3rd National Action Plan on Climate Change and the present Strategy is providing an additional tool to create synergies between adaptation and mitigation actions on national level. By identifying and integrating the relevant adaptation and mitigation aspects at all levels of respective sectoral planning, budgeting, program and project cycles, there is a tangible potential to scale up and mainstream more synergy into the climate policies, including streamlining into the available funding. 4.5. Financial Resources 301. The financing of CCA measures requires considerable mobilization of funds. In preparing the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, the EC made certain cost estimates. According to these estimates, the cost of not adapting to climate change could reach --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 89 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan at least €100 billion a year by 2020, rising to €250 billion a year by 2050. Improved access to funding will be a key factor in strengthening resilience to climate change. 302. Given the magnitude of funding needs, both public and private resources will be required and will play a complementary role in effective adaptation. Public intervention will in particular support a policy environment that is conducive to effective private adaptation (for example, pricing on water use), provide climate-resilient public goods (for example, climate proof key infrastructure or early warning systems), and assist vulnerable groups that cannot adapt sufficiently themselves. The focus of this section is on public sources, that can be used to address funding gaps (for example, additional costs of adapting to emerging climate risks) or mitigate risks (for example, support contingency funds) with a view to mobilizing and leveraging a larger amount of private resources. 303. The main public sources for adaptation financing are EU funds (grants, subsidies) or national sources (State budget). In a context of fiscal tightening, EU financing appears as one of the most readily available sources to Bulgaria. This is in line with current discussions on strengthening the climate relevance of the EU budget. With respect to State budget, while additional or increased taxation could be considered in future, a portion of the revenues from the sale of EU Allowances could be oriented towards financing adaptation. 4.5.1. EU and international funding 304. In the current programming period from 2014 to 2020, the EC has allocated over 20 percent of EU structural funds budget to action on climate change, including adaptation measures. 305. The EU Cohesion Policy provides funding for EU Member States and regions to help them achieve the EU’s strategic goals. The EC has stressed the potential for regions to use the funds to support the sustainable growth priority of the Europe 2020 Strategy, in particular, to contribute to a resource-efficient, low-carbon, and climate-resilient economy. The proposed regulations for the EU Cohesion Policy for 2014–2020 place greater emphasis on the challenge of climate change than in the past. Member States and regions can target funds specifically for the transition to a low-carbon economy (Thematic Objective 4) and for adaptation to climate change (Thematic Objective 5). The total amount of available funds for Bulgaria under Thematic Objective 5 exceeds €66.7 million. 306. Priority Axis 4 ‘Flood and Landslides Risk Prevention and Management’ of OP ‘Environment’ is aimed at the implementation of Thematic Objective 5 of the General Regulation: ‘Promoting climate change adaptation, risk prevention and management.’ Priority Axis 4 is co-financed by the Cohesion Fund with a budget of €78.5 million. The measures provided under Priority Axis 4 aim to provide resistance to disasters, prevent risks to human health and the environment, and mitigate the consequences of floods. 307. In addition to providing funds for adaptation from structural funds, the EU budget provides support for adaptation programs and projects within the Horizon 2020 and LIFE programs. Horizon 2020 is the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation and aims to dedicate 35 percent of funds to climate-related research, including adaptation. The program addresses knowledge gaps such as those identified in the EU Adaptation Strategy, --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 90 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan including the development and testing of decision-making support tools, monitoring systems for adaptation, resilient infrastructures, and the integration of CCA in sectoral research. LIFE Climate Action is a new subprogram of the LIFE Program for the Environment and Climate Action 2014–2020 and among grants for project activities it includes CCA. Adaptation measures are also supported by several other EU funds and international financial institutions (IFIs). These include the European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the World Bank. 308. The EU budget remains an important source of funds for areas from low carbon development to clean infrastructure and sustainable regional development. In the EU budget proposal for 2021–2027,21 presented in June 2018, the European Commission suggests an increase in the proportion of climate-related spending from 20 to 25 percent. In numbers it would mean spending on climate in the range of €16 billion per year. According to the proposal, increase in climate spending in areas such as research and innovation, economic development and agriculture is expected to be even more pronounced than it is in the current MFF. For the next long-term EU budget, the Commission proposes also to increase funding by 60% for LIFE, the EU program for the environment and climate action. 309. Although this increase accounts for only a portion of the €170 billion yearly gap needed to meet the EU’s climate and energy targets, it will be a strong leverage for triggering climate investments. Moreover, it should be noted that on EU level a number of stakeholders are pushing for considerably higher expenditures on climate action. The European Parliament insists on climate spending increase to 30 percent, while the Greens in the Parliament want 50 percent to be devoted to climate. Thus, some upwards pressure on the climate earmark could be expected with the progress of negotiations. 310. It’s also important to remember that a bigger envisaged number in the budget doesn’t necessarily mean better climate spending. In its special report on progress towards integrating climate in the EU Budget (31/2016), the European Court of Auditors has assessed the current climate earmarking as insufficiently targeted and recommended better tracking methodologies to be introduced. Options for improvements in climate change financing are proposed in a recent report for DG CLIMA on mainstreaming of climate considerations into the EU financing (‘Climate mainstreaming in the EU budget: Preparing for the next MFF’22). Here below the key proposals for improvement are outlined, to be considered by the Commission in preparation of the future MFF. 311. The recent DG CLIMA report evaluates the options for further improvements in mainstreaming and one of its main conclusions is that climate change adaptation actions should be brought up in the focus of the next MFF – in terms of programming of actions and respective financial resources, through broader use of blended financial mechanisms, to tracking progress on spending and implementation (see Box 1). These and other aspects would be considered in preparing the Commission proposal for the next MFF. With this respect the CCA strategies and action plans developed by the Member States (including Bulgaria) 21 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/news/long-term-eu-budget-2021-2027-2018-jun-01_en 22 https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/1df19257-aef9-11e7-837e-01aa75ed71a1 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 91 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan provide a good tool for negotiating future integration of climate change adaptation measures into the EU financing beyond 2020. Box 1. Main recommendations to the new MFF with respect to climate financing  Introduction of sector investment guidelines and standards for the post-2020 EU budget, which establish rules and identify those areas where EU funding should not be provided.  Establishment of a set of key climate-relevant ex ante conditionalities for broader use within the post-2020 MFF. These conditionalities should be made relevant for the improved use of green public procurement as well.  More extensive use of climate considerations in CBA for EU investment decisions should be considered together with vulnerability and risk assessments. And in a longer term:  The establishment of minimum spending requirements on climate objectives or earmarking of climate resources should be considered more extensively in the future MFF funding programmes on a case-by-case basis.  Drawing a closer link between EU climate allocations and EU and MS climate policies. The report identifies three options to do this: - Creating a link to the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) under the currently negotiated Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union; - Establishing a stronger link between allocations for mitigation actions and their contributions to the overall delivery of EU and MS climate objectives (in the case of ESIF, these could be linked to the national GHG emission reduction targets); - Greater use of vulnerability and risk assessments and in particular creating a closer link between National Adaptation Strategies and EU allocations to adaptation objectives. Consider the establishment of separate climate mitigation and adaptation mainstreaming targets in order to ensure that attention is paid to both objectives. As a first step towards this long-term goal, the Commission could identify those EU funds which would benefit of having separate mitigation and adaptation targets (e.g. if a fund is found to focus largely on mitigation actions and does not exploit its potential in adaptation separate targets could reduce these imbalances). For more details see the report ‘Climate mainstreaming in the EU budget: Preparing for the next MFF’, Directorate General Climate Action - DG CLIMA, October 2017. 4.5.2. Funding sources by Sector Role of State budget 312. The role of the national budget and the budgets of local communities is to co-finance the aforementioned European and international sources and to independently finance measures. Because CCA measures often overlap with climate change mitigation measures, sustainable energy and transport policy measures, and policy measures aimed at improving the quality of the environment, it is necessary to identify areas of commonality, which may facilitate the mobilization of funds. Non-exhaustive examples of synergies in mitigation and adaptation are given in Section 4.3. 313. Specific national and EU financial resources for sectors, as identified in Sector Assessment Reports, are summarized in the following paragraphs. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 92 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Agriculture 314. Over the past 10 years, the main sources of funding within the agriculture and rural development sector have been the CAP payments. Under the new CAP for 2014– 2020, Bulgaria has been allocated significant inflows of EU funds for the farming sector and rural areas, totaling around €7.4 billion. The total planned public expenditure (European Network for Rural Development 2015) for the RDP 2014–2020 is nearly €3 billion, including EU and national co-financing. The total public expenditure for the Bulgarian Rural Network (Rural Development program 2014–2020) is € 2,062,130 (EU and national-co-financing). The Maritime and Fisheries Program 2014-2020 is a financial instrument for implementing the Common Fisheries Policy. 315. Several priorities and measures of the government policy program are funded by the state budget of the MAFF. The budget expenditures are allocated across various programs, plans, and policies. Budgetary allocation is linked to carrying out specific commitments, some of which are directly or indirectly related to climate change mitigation or adaptation. 316. State aid policy in the agriculture sector is aimed at solving specific problems for farmers by applying both compensatory and preventive measures, as well as measures to promote the competitiveness of the sector. The State Fund Agriculture provides financial support to agricultural producers under state aid programs. The state aid is intended to compensate damage caused by natural disasters, to prevent plant and animal diseases, to encourage farmers to insure their assets, and to support farmers’ production, which is vulnerable to climate change impacts. 317. The RDP provides a framework to help encourage adaptation in the agricultural sector. Agri-environmental and climatic schemes have the potential to offer support for many adaptation options. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 318. Bulgarian budget funding on environment (including biodiversity, ecosystems, and CCA) is limited. Actions where national and private funding is needed are identified in the Action Plan table in Annex 3. Funding for both biodiversity and CCA is available from numerous other sources and Annex 6 of the Sector Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystems gives detailed information on these funding opportunities. These include OP- Environment 2014–2020, the European Economic Area Financial Mechanism 2014–2021, the Program for the Environment and Climate Action (LIFE), the Interregional Cooperation Programme (INTERREG), ESPON 2020, the Black Sea Basin ENI CBC Program 2014– 2020, and the Advisory Assistance Programme of the German Federal Government. Energy 319. The ‘Connecting Europe Facility’ (CEF) finances the development, construction, and improvement of infrastructure projects in the transport, energy, and digital sectors as a part of the EU’s Trans-European Networks policy. Climate change objectives and targets are effectively mainstreamed into the CEF instrument. CEF grants only support projects of common interest, which under the TEN-E Regulation go through rigorous assessment and selection procedures that include assessment of GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 93 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan impacts. There are real opportunities to use the CEF funding for further climate mainstreaming goals in such a way that it would also improve the robust delivery of the infrastructure projects. 320. The largest share of the funding under the Horizon 2020 Programme was spent on ‘Secure, Clean, and Efficient Energy’ in 2017. Adaptation measures are also supported by several other EU funds and IFIs. These include the EIB, EBRD, and World Bank. To date, these have largely focused on the implementation of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy in Bulgaria, for instance, the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Sources Fund, the Kozloduy International Decommissioning Support Fund, and the European Economic Area Financial Mechanism 2009–2014 (Programme BG04 ‘Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’). 321. Other potential sources of funding for CCA measures are corporate financing from energy private and state energy companies, and loans from IFIs and commercial banks. Forestry 322. Climate change mitigation and activities are supported by the budget and the RDP, OP- Environment, , OP-Administrative Capacity, and other operational programs for transboundary, transnational, and interregional cooperation for 2014–2020. Other potential sources are the European Fund Solidarity, Framework Program for Scientific Research and Innovations Horizon 2020, LIFE Programme for Environment and Climate Action, and INTERREG Europe. Donor countries’ programs are also a source of financing different climate change/CCA activities and projects. Human health 323. Bulgaria has a mixed public-private health care financing system. Health care is financed from compulsory health insurance contributions, taxes, out-of-pocket payments, voluntary health insurance premiums, corporate payments, donations, and external funding. Some policies which concern indirectly the adaptation of the human health sector to climate change are directly funded by the state budget (for example, Better Healthcare Concept and National Program for Prevention of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases). 324. Since the mid-1990s, the Bulgarian health system has received substantial foreign assistance, including governmental loans, international projects, and grants from various governments, institutions, and organizations. Some of the priority axes of the financial mechanism of the European Economic Area provide a budget for development of projects with a favorable effect on human health and adaptation to extreme climate change events. Among several such projects are the FRMPs and RBMPs. Tourism 325. It is concluded in the Tourism Sector Assessment Report that there are insufficient financial resources allocated to the MT in Bulgaria for funds to be allocated for research into climate change and its impact on tourism or for the development and implementation of adaptation measures. Therefore, financial resources for CCA in the tourism sector in Bulgaria can be found mainly from external sources—the EU-funded OPs and other related projects. 326. Several OPs in the period 2014–2020 could potentially finance climate change research and adaptation in the tourism sector. In the OP-Regions in Growth, the sixth priority axis is --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 94 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan ‘regional tourism’ which focuses mainly on the unexplored potential of cultural tourism. It is suggested that the development of this type of tourism can help to adapt the highly seasonal and climate-sensitive nature of Bulgarian tourism, and therefore contribute to CCA. Another OP which could address the impacts of extreme weather events on tourism is the OP-Environment, Priority Axis 4 ‘Flood and Landslides Risk Prevention and Management’. In the OP text, an explicit connection with the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change is made. The OP- Rural Development may also offer funding opportunities. Although this program is mostly oriented toward agriculture and forestry, it can be used to develop new tourism products and destinations which may be less sensitive to climate changes, for example, wine and culinary tourism. In addition, opportunities for financing CCA research, development, and application can be found in the transborder cooperation programs 2014–2020 funded by the EU. Transport 327. During recent decades, financing the development of the transport infrastructure has been mainly achieved by national co-financing for programs with funding from external sources. The main sources of funding have been EU co-financed programs and, to a lesser extent, loans from the IFIs. 328. Operational Programme Transport and Transport Infrastructure (OPTTI) 2014–2020 is a possible source of funding for CCA measures in the transport sector. The best option for this would be the ‘smart mobility’ axis of the program: Priority Axis 4 ‘Innovations in management and services – establishment of modern infrastructure for traffic management and transport safety improvement’. Eligible for funding would be activities such as the development of transport plans and strategies related to CCA, as well as the implementation of some CCA measures (for example, information systems, navigation, and emergency systems). 329. OP-Regions in Growth 2014–2020 contributes to CCA in a direct way with support for the development of public transport information systems. As with the OPTTI, consideration of CCA is made at all steps of the project preparation and implementation process. CCA is also explicitly discussed in the applications for funding of major projects. The implementation of CCA measures in the transport sector should be possible under OP-Regions in growth if the measures are included in the integrated plans for urban reconstruction and development, needed as a precondition to fund urban projects. Urban environment 330. The main sources of funding for adaptation to climate change and for dealing with emerging disasters in the urban environment are the state budget, municipal budgets, and the EU's structural funds, and private funding from financial institutions. The financing of actions related to disasters is explained under DRM in this section. 331. A number of EU funding sources are identified in the sector assessment report for their relevance to urban environment. Among the ESIF, the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Cohesion Fund can finance activities related to reduced risk of landslides, floods, and droughts and capacity building for effective and efficient climate adaptation, prevention, and risk management. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 95 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 332. The OP-Regions in Growth (2014–2020) directs funds for the renovation of cities under Priority Axis 1 - ‘Sustainable and Integrated Urban Development’ and allocates it to cities, approved for support by the National Concept for Spatial Development (NCSD). Priority Axis 1 stipulates financing of integrated urban transport projects, which should aim at improving urban mobility and reducing environmental pollution. In addition to the renovation of residential areas and buildings, important cultural assets and economic zones with potential and investment interest can be renovated. 333. The other priority axes related to regional educational, health, and social infrastructure, will also be implemented in settlements that need to update these important sites and buildings and adapt them to climate change. The energy efficiency of buildings is a horizontal priority for which 20 percent of the program's financial resources are allocated. Financial priority 1 is related to ‘providing support for energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy in public infrastructures, including public buildings and the residential sector’. Other funding opportunities are offered by the LIFE and Horizon 2020 programs. Water 334. The elaboration and implementation of CCA measures in the water sector is closely linked with the maintenance and management of the water infrastructure and resources. The sources of funding can be divided into the following main categories: the business sector, public financing, loans, and grants. 335. Financial resources of the business sector include the funds allocated for investment and maintenance carried out by the water operators, the National Electricity Company, the Irrigation Systems Company, Zeminvest, and private associations for irrigation, other companies (including operators of industrial wastewater treatment plants and those using circulating water supply and integrated water technologies), private operators of water bodies, and small hydroelectric power plants (HPP). 336. Public financing of the water sector consists of subsidies from the state budget for municipal water projects and municipal contributions, transfers for national public co-financing of EU projects, the state budget for public hydro-melioration services, government subsidies for flood protection activities, and the state budget for administrative staff (the MoEW, MRDPW, and other institutions). 337. The EMEPA is a state-owned enterprise which provides funding for the implementation of environmental projects and activities identified in the national and municipal strategies and programs. The EMEPA provides grants and interest-free or low interest loans for environmental projects of municipalities, individuals, and legal entities and subsidies to cover part or the total amount of interest due on bank loans for the implementation of environmental projects. Projects in the water sector have the largest share (varying between 80 and 90 percent) in the total amount of grants for investment projects. 338. The Fund for Local Authorities and Governments is structured as a revolving mechanism for financing the development and implementation of economically and financially viable municipal infrastructure projects and for supporting the administrative capacity of municipalities to absorb the structural and cohesion funds proceeds. A Financing Agreement is --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 96 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan to be signed between the Managing Authority of the Operational Program Environment 2014– 2020 and the Fund Manager of Financial Instruments in Bulgaria on providing support through financial instruments in the field of water, with a budget of BGN 234 million. 339. Other potential sources identified for grants are the OP-Environment 2014–2020, the RDP 2014–2020, the Financial Mechanism of European Economic Area, and Norwegian financial mechanism, and the European territorial cooperation financed by the ERDF and the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF). The EUSF was set up to respond to major natural disasters and express European solidarity to disaster-stricken regions within Europe. Disaster risk management 340. According to the Disaster Protection Act, the financial resources for the implementation of the National Programme for Disaster Protection 2014–2018 are being provided through the budgets of the respective ministries and government departments and through budgetary relations of the municipalities with the central budget, stipulated by the State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Act for the respective year. 341. Each ministry and local government authorities responsible for a specific activity under the program must have up-to-date estimates of the necessary costs for activities in the field of their commitments to program implementation. Each institution is expected to specify which policy and program-related activities will receive financial support. 342. The funds for the implementation of the program need to be budgeted by the respective budget spenders. They must be declared by ministries and agencies each year during the budgetary procedure for the year in question. Pursuant to Article 56 of the Disaster Protection Act, the Interdepartmental Commission for Restoration and Assistance to the Council of Ministers adopts a decision to provide funds from the reserve for contingencies and/or emergency expenditures in the part for prevention, containment, and overcoming of consequences of disasters and controls their target spending. The decision of the commission is approved by the CoM. 343. The Council of Ministers sets a limit - at least 15 percent of the funds under the contingency and/or urgent expenditures for prevention, containment, and overcoming of consequences of disasters - to finance: disaster risk reduction activities – preventive activities and preparedness response activities as complementary funding to the approved budget of the relevant competent authority and/or to funds from other sources. The financial, material and technical support for disaster protection is provided by the budgets of ministries and state bodies, municipal budgets, commercial companies and sole entrepreneurs - for their properties, the structural funds of the EU, and other sources. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 97 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Chapter 5. National Programme and Action Plan 344. The development of the Action Plan has used an iterative process to identify and select operational objectives and specify the actions to address these objectives, in support of the sector strategic objectives. This is founded in the process of developing the sector assessment reports for the nine key sectors and has been informed by the DRM and macroeconomic analysis reports. This process has involved a series of consultations with stakeholders, including relevant government agencies. On finalization of the Sector Assessment Reports, further development of draft operational objectives and priority activities for these objectives (with associated implementation details) took place in consultations between sector experts and the Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan report authors. This section outlines the key outcomes from the development of the Action Plan including operational objectives and priority options, as well as an explanation of proposed activities and expected results. 5.1. Operational Objectives 345. Operational objectives related to strategic objectives (as outlined in Section 4.1) are summarized in the following paragraphs for each sector. In consultations with sector experts it was concluded that, in many cases, the categorization of adaptation options given in the sector assessment reports links directly to operational objectives. Therefore, the operational objectives listed here are significantly based on this categorization of adaptation options for each sector, with some aggregation, disaggregation, and reordering to enhance the cohesion of the framework. These objectives also largely correspond with the ‘types of options’ columns of the sector adaptation options tables given in Section 4.2. Table 12. Operational Objectives: Agriculture Strategic Objective Operational Objective Adapt agricultural productivity (crops) Sustainable management of agricultural Adapt livestock production practices for adaptation to climate change Adapt natural resources management (soil, water, fisheries, and aquaculture) Promote adaptive capacity and awareness Build adaptive capacity in agricultural sector Improve awareness Promote research and innovation for Strengthen research, technology development, and climate change adaptation innovation Strengthen legal framework Strengthen policy and legal framework for adaptation in the agricultural sector Strengthen risk management and other policy development --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 98 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Table 13. Operational Objectives: Biodiversity and ecosystems services Strategic Objective Operational Objective Align strategic planning and implementation legislation Adjust sectoral legislation to climate legislation Enhance ecosystem governance Link emissions statistics to new environmental accounts Promote open and reuse of data Improve communication and understanding of Enhance knowledge management and ecosystem processes and climate change as pressure stakeholder communication for Restore, enhance, and use local biodiversity knowledge adaptation Maximize the use of citizen science Educate for ecosystem thinking Reclaim space from grey infrastructure and create Create space for BD&ES refugia, reduce fragmentation Increase climate change resilience by reducing pressures not related to climate Reduce pollution, disturbance, and overexploitation. change Sustainable use of regulating and cultural Sustainable use of existing ecosystem services ecosystem services for adaptation Table 14. Operational Objectives: Energy Strategic Objective Operational Objective Build institutional capacity and knowledge networks Build institutional capacity, knowledge, and use of data for adaptation Translate monitoring, forecasting, and weather data for the energy sector Mainstream climate change Mainstream climate change considerations within considerations into energy sector policies, energy sector policies and plans plans, and financial mechanisms Develop financial mechanisms to build resilience Incorporate climate resilience in power plants and Incorporate climate resilience into design mines and engineering Incorporate climate resilience in T&D infrastructure Diversify supply to increase overall energy system resilience Increase resilience of energy supply Improve energy efficiency in buildings and industry systems --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 99 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Table 15. Operational Objectives: Forestry Strategic Objective Operational Objective Enhance knowledge base and awareness Build capacity for research, education, and extension for climate change adaptation Develop research to support adaptation Build resilience in regenerating, expanding, and strengthening the forest resource Enhance and protect the forest resources Maintenance of biodiversity, genetic diversity, and forest resilience Enhance management of forest resources Improving the potential for long-term use of higher- valued wood products Improving potential for sustainable use of forest resource Improving potential for sustainable and more environmentally friendly use of wood biomass for production of energy Table 16. Operational Objectives: Human Health Strategic Objective Operational Objective Strengthen policy, legal, and institutional framework Develop administrative, infrastructure, financial, Enhance governance for adaptation communication, and technical capacity Build professional capacity Develop public education and awareness on adaptation Build knowledge base and awareness for Develop monitoring, data collection, and early warning adaptation Develop research and knowledge base Adapt built and natural environment to reduce health Adapt external environment to reduce impact of climate change health impacts of climate change Develop socioeconomic capacity Table 17. Operational Objectives: Tourism Strategic Objective Operational Objective Mainstream climate change adaptation Development of a sectoral climate change policy into policy development and legal Provision of comprehensive legal framework, risk framework for tourism sector management, and incentives Enhance awareness and knowledge base Awareness-raising measures on climate change and its for climate change adaptation in tourist impacts on the sector sector Strengthening the sector knowledge base Regional and sub-sectoral assessment of adaptive Build adaptive capacity in Tourism Sector capacity Capacity building Development of specific adaptation Adapt existing tourism sectors actions for the tourism sector Develop new tourism and management solutions --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 100 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Table 18. Operational Objectives: Transport Strategic Objective Operational Objective Build institutional capacity and Building institutional capacity knowledge base of the transport sector Building knowledge base Mainstream climate change adaptation Review and enhance project preparation procedures considerations into key planning and Review and improve operation and maintenance decision-making processes Review and update design norms Table 19. Operational Objectives: Urban Environment Strategic Objective Operational Objective Mainstream CCA in regional and urban development Revise and amend all types of legislative documents to transpose CCA issues after a Regulatory Impact Strengthen policy and legal framework to mainstream adaptation to climate change Assessment Technology/construction - implement new Eurocodes and technical norms in planning, design, construction technologies, and building materials Develop sustainable institutions capable of providing CCA policy at all administrative levels Build adaptive capacity Develop and upscale institutional, administrative, and expert capacity Develop financial, social and risk management policies for adaptation to Change financial, social, and insurance policies climate change Information—secure institutionally regulated exchange of information and data according to INSPIRE directive obligations Research—provide common long-term vision and Enhance knowledge management, objectives in urban environment CCA research through research, education, and stakeholder amendment of the National Scientific Research communication for adaptation Development Education — ‘Train the trainers’ on CCA Partnership—work in partnership and communicate knowledge Table 20. Operational Objectives: Water Strategic Objective Operational Objective Adaptation of legal framework to make it instrumental Enhance adaptive governance for addressing climate change impacts Maximize the use of research and education Strengthen knowledge base and institutions awareness for adaptation Enhance awareness, education, and training Enhance monitoring and flexibility Enhance adaptive management of water Adapt design and construction system infrastructure Adapt operation --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 101 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 5.2. Priority Options 346. In support of priority setting for the identified adaptation options (as outlined in Section 4.2), each sector undertook a prioritization exercise. This included organizing stakeholder meetings at which an MCA approach was used, following Climate-ADAPT guidance.23 MCA is an approach, as well as a set of techniques, that aims at providing an overall ordering of options, ranging from the most preferred to the least preferred. It represents a way of looking at complex problems that are characterized by a mix of monetary and non-monetary objectives. MCA breaks down options into more manageable pieces by using a set of criteria. The two groups of criteria used for the analysis were those of ‘Net Benefits’, further broken down into economic, social, and environmental benefits, and ‘Implementation Risks’, further broken down into financial, social, institutional, technical, and technological risks. This approach allows data and judgements to focus on the separate pieces that are then reassembled to present a coherent overall picture. Further details of the criteria used are given in the Sector Assessment Reports (see Appendices 1 to 9). This approach produced a tentative short list of priority actions for each sector. Some sectors (including BD&ES services, tourism, water) also provide additional assessment/ranking of priority options based on expert judgment and/or additional feedback from stakeholders. 347. The results of the prioritization assessments are given in the following paragraphs for each sector. These results served as an initial contribution to inform the development of the draft Action Plan. However, caveats are needed on the direct implementation of a limited selection of top-ranked options. The interlinked nature of CCA policy means that, to be effective, actions need to be implemented in coordination with associated actions to maximize benefits and according to a logical sequence. 348. Prioritization of adaptation options is also informed by the CBAs that have been undertaken for sectors, as summarized in the Sector Assessment Reports that come as appendices to this strategy. The general conclusion from the CBAs is that the overall effects of adaptation measures will be cost savings as a result of the decrease of potential damage caused by climate change, compared with the no action scenario (see Section 4.3). For some sectors the CBA identifies the most economically efficient adaptation actions and allows for their ranking. These rankings are given in the sector sub sections given below (after the MCA prioritization results), for each sector where they are available in the Sector Assessment Reports, illustrating the assessed adaptation measures for which benefits most exceeded costs. 349. It should be noted that an essential element of prioritization of adaptation actions is addressing uncertainty in climate planning. Therefore, among priorities identified there is a particular focus on building capacity and addressing knowledge gaps and in selection of ‘no- regrets’ actions (that is, measures for which benefits will still occur under differing climate change scenarios). The importance of measures addressing knowledge gaps and undertaking monitoring and reporting of progress on the Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan is that it will allow actions to be adapted to the latest knowledge on climate change scenarios and impacts. 23 http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/adaptation-support-tool/step-4/prioritise-and-select --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 102 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 5.2.1. Agriculture 350. The initial results indicate that the development of water management innovations and improvement of water management practices are top priorities, together with increased research development, training on climate change, and active engagement in the wider dissemination of CCA knowledge to local farmers. The development of insurance and risk management programs has also been identified as a top priority. 351. The main priority adaptation options that were tentatively identified for the agriculture sector are listed in the following paragraphs: Horizontal adaptation options  Develop climate change training  Develop knowledge dissemination actions  Develop insurance and risk management programs  Develop water management innovations  Improve the CCA legal framework Vertical adaptation options  Improve water management practices  Adjust the timing of farm operations  Improve the soil structure maintenance and increase the soil’s organic matter reserves and soil cultivation technologies  Eliminate secondary salinization conditions and conditions for anthropogenic soil acidification  Maintain and improve existing aquaculture habitat The CBA identifies and ranks the most economically efficient adaptation actions as follows:  Developing a suitable irrigation system  Adjusting time farming operations  Diversifying livestock farming, improving soil structure  Improving water management practices, and others 5.2.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 352. The prioritization recommendations for BD&ES services took account of the stakeholder MCA and further assessment by sector experts. These propose the following prioritization of options with (a) the highest priority. Note that options ranked of equal importance are listed as (i), (ii) and (iii). (a) (i) Develop and adopt the new Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan and a new Green Infrastructure Strategy with regard to ecosystem-based management, conservation, restoration and CCA (ii) Review and amend legislation and secondary legislation in the environment sector and related sectors to reflect the new Biodiversity Strategy and Green Infrastructure Strategy --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 103 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (b) Set up interdisciplinary teams and centers of excellence (c) Operationalize ecosystem-based monitoring and strategic/environment impact assessment (d) (i) Open data for public use (ii) Establish communication and provide tools for informed prioritization of research and practical action (iii) Enable volunteer sharing (e) (i) Adjust regional and local adaptation strategies to the amended CCMA and the strategic documents and legislation on BD&ES services (ii) Stimulate local development and equitable access to ecosystems services (f) Link decision making, resources, and funding to efficient assessment of improved ecosystem conditions (g) (i) Identify regional/local ‘red lines’ to prevent decrease or irreversible loss of ecosystem services vital for CCA (ii) Develop regional/local programs to conserve and restore biodiversity to increase the delivery of ecosystems services (h) (i) Carry out ecosystems restoration—a long-term business opportunity (ii) Implement new training programs at all educational levels and in informal/non- formal education (iii) Create carbon environmental accounts (i) (i) Develop cultural ecosystems services for recreation and education (ii) Use genetic resources for resilience (j) Collection folk customs and traditional knowledge in a targeted manner 5.2.3. Energy 353. The five main priority adaptation options that were tentatively identified based on the stakeholder consultation using the MCA for the energy sector were as follows: (a) Advance efforts to motivate end users of energy to implement energy-saving measures, especially in households (b) Review costs and benefits of incorporating climate resilience into the design of new power plants (c) The MoEW is to ensure that climate resilience is integrated into water resources management and associated decisions affecting the operation of large HPPs (d) Undertake an inventory of strategies, policies, plans, standards, site selection, energy infrastructure design norms and other, to identify those where climate resilience should be incorporated (e) When the new Energy Strategy is developed, ensure climate resilience is mainstreamed into it --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 104 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 354. The CBA identifies and ranks the most economically efficient adaptation actions as follows:  Financial support for gasification of households  Continued development of regional interconnections  Soft adaptation measures  Implementation of energy saving measures 5.2.4. Forestry 355. A prioritization exercise was conducted by combining the results of the MCA analysis with the national and international experience of the report authors. Actions were categorized in the descending order of priority from 1 to 3. The actions listed as the highest priority (1) were as follows: (a) Establish a research and development coordination body (b) Design and implement a research program (c) Promote management strategies, which ensure high species and structural diversity and natural regeneration (d) Execute the NFI (e) Establish a national system for early warning and awareness at regional and local level (f) Establish and maintain a national disturbance monitoring system (g) Develop a wood specifiers guide and promote wood use 5.2.5. Human health 356. The five main priority adaptation options that were tentatively identified for the human health sector from the MCA exercise were as follows: (a) Monitor and collect data; develop warning system about dangerous for health climate change phenomena (b) Carry out public education and awareness outreach (c) Work in partnership and cooperation: intra- and intersectoral (local, national, and international) (d) Carry out research/raise knowledge-base 5.2.6. Tourism 357. Building on the stakeholders’ MCA prioritization contributions, the experts responsible for the sector assessment report assessed the proposed adaption options for the tourism sector and, using their professional judgement, suggested the following prioritization of CCA options. Vertical options (a) Develop a NAS for CCA in the Tourism Sector (b) Develop a system of monitoring indicators and indicators monitoring (c) Raise and develop the tourism industry’s adaptive capacity and awareness (d) Develop four seasons’ tourism across the country --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 105 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (e) Develop and implement new market segmentation and new marketing strategies Horizontal options (a) Improve the CCA legal framework (b) Develop and improve an M&E system (c) Develop a national database (online portal) containing CCA-specific information (d) Create cross-sectoral policy frameworks and improve coordination among responsible government and public institution (e) Introduce subsidies, grants, and other financial programs 358. In summary, the adaptation options identified for the Bulgarian tourism sector mainly encompass soft and foundation measures for the development of future, more specific and more detailed adaptation options. 5.2.7. Transport 359. The main priority adaptation options that were tentatively identified for the transport sector based on the MCA were the following: (a) Review the institutional settings (b) Assign CCA responsibilities in the statute and internal procedures of the relevant stakeholders and train the staff (c) Introduce and/or improve CCA relevant data collection practices (d) Update the design norms (with specific focus on road and railway bridges and culverts) and continue the updating of these codes (e) Develop a common guideline for all beneficiaries to take CCA into consideration and embed it in the project preparation process 360. The CBA identifies and ranks the most economically efficient adaptation actions as follows:  Review and enhance project preparation procedures  Review and improve operation and maintenance  Review and update of design codes 5.2.8. Urban environment 361. The main priority adaptation options, tentatively identified for the urban environment sector, were as follows: (a) Policy - Mainstream CCA into the policy of regional and urban development, including housing and construction; Adaptation option - incorporate CCA into the National Housing Strategy (2017–2030); (b) Legislation - Revise and amend legislative documents to transpose CCA issues (after RIA when applicable and necessary); Adaptation option - mainstream CCA requirements in all related legislative documents, relevant to regional and spatial/urban planning and environmental protection (Spatial Planning Act, Regional Development Act, Regulations No. 4, 7, and, 8, Regulation for Spatial Development Documents for EIA and SEA); --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 106 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (c) Information - Secure institutionally regulated exchange of information and data according to INSPIRE Directive obligations; Adaptation option - create common standards for the type, structure, scope, and format of metadata and data, harmonized with the EU at the city level; (d) Research - Provide a common long-term vision and objectives in the urban environment CCA research through amendment of the National Scientific Research Development Strategy 2020; Adaptation option - identify priority scientific topics, linked with the city, open and green spaces, buildings, infrastructure, construction materials, and human health; (e) Education - ‘Train the trainers’ for CCA; Adaptation option - organize appropriate education and training formats for all levels—from politicians to the general public (f) Finance - Change financial, social, and insurance policy; Adaptation option - revise the existing financial instruments and design new ones for CCA and DRM, including for energy renovation. 362. The CBA identifies and ranks the most economically efficient adaptation actions as follows:  Housing energy efficiency renovation  Identify priority scientific topics  Mainstream CCA into policies of regional and urban development  Promote partnership, networking, and collaboration, and others 5.2.9. Water 363. The suggested top five adaptation options for the water sector were selected based on the prioritization session with stakeholders, additional feedback from stakeholders, and expert judgment. These were as follows: (a) Adapt the legal framework to make it instrumental for addressing climate change impacts (b) Establish dynamic publicly available GIS database supporting climate change decision making (c) Maximize the use of research and education institutions (d) Operate water infrastructure to increase resilience to climate change for all users and sectors (e) Strengthen adaptation capacity: CCA awareness raising campaigns, education, and training 364. The CBA identifies and ranks the most economically efficient adaptation actions as follows:  Secure funds for CCA research and implementation of CCA-related innovations  Introduce economic incentives for behavioral change  Include CCA measures in the infrastructure operational plans --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 107 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 5.3. Activities 365. A full list of proposed adaptation activities to be included in the Action Plan, for the period up to 2030, for all strategic objectives and operational objectives per sector is given in Annex 3. For each adaptation activity this includes indicative details of the following:  Budget amount (ranked as negligible/low, medium, and high for this draft). Cost rankings are based on the experts’ experience and comparison with analogous projects. Where available the Action Plan tables include the tentative budget estimates for specific actions that were used in the CBAs for each sector (as reported in Sector Assessment reports). Both the cost rankings and the selected budget estimates should be seen as only indicative. Part of the process of the implementation of the action plan is to assess more accurately the funding requirements.  Budget source (EU, State, private). The stated sources are indicative only. Part of the process of the Action Plan implementation is to identify and develop potential sources of funding.  Priority (defined as short term (within 5 years), medium term (5 to 10 years), or long term (after 10 years). Those activities which have been assessed as the highest priority for implementation are shown in green highlight in the priority column.  Duration (defined as short (<5 years), medium (5 to 10 years), or long (>10 years)  Expected results. These are summarized per sector in the section below.  Monitoring indicators (parameters are defined and, to the extent possible, targets are also given). These are indicative suggestions and, therefore, the most appropriate and practical indicators should be further developed during the process of implementing the Action Plan.  Responsible institutions (lead and partners). The institutional responsibilities listed are tentative and to be further developed and agreed during the course of the implementation of the Action Plan. 366. It should also be noted that some of the proposed actions may be part of other programs and action plans but are also relevant for CCA. For example, several of the actions included in the Forestry Action Plan, such as under the strategic objective to build resilience in regenerating, expanding, and strengthening the forest resource, are part of existing ongoing forestry plans and activities. 367. A number of the proposed activities are addressing the same types of adaptation issues that exist in all sectors, in particular those relating to the general strategic objectives to build institutional capacity and raise awareness on climate change adaptation. Thus, it is necessary to understand synergies between adaptation actions across sectors (as discussed in Section 4.3) to ensure more effective and efficient policies. The inter-institutional coordinating and facilitating roles outlined in Chapter 6 should therefore include identifying where such synergies exist and promoting cross-sectoral cooperation on activities related to shared strategic objectives, where appropriate. 368. A set of short term highest priority activities for implementation in each sector are highlighted in green in the priority column of the Action Plan Table in Annex 3. Identification --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 108 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan of these highest priorities is based on an assessment by sector experts taking into account the prioritization exercise undertaken in the Sector Assessment Reports (outlined in Section 5.2). Note that these are activities which have been assessed as feasible (or preferable) to start in the short term and in many cases will enable and support following actions. Therefore, many of these actions across all sectors are soft measures (many assessed as no cost or low cost). supporting the strategic and operational objectives related to building institutional capacity (including though addressing knowledge gaps), mainstreaming and integrating CCA into existing national and sectoral plans and programs, and raising awareness and enhancing education. These will provide the foundation for medium- and longer-term practical actions for building climate change resilience including through the management of infrastructure and assets, and the protection and enhancement of natural capital. It is suggested that the identified highest priority activities should be a key focus of sector-specific working groups established to coordinate implementation of concrete adaptation actions. 369. A summary of proposed highest priority activities for each sector (based on those activities highlighted in green in Annex 3) is given below: 5.3.1. Agriculture 370. The range of highest priority actions identified for the agricultural sector cover all four strategic objectives: sustainable management of agricultural practices for CCA, promoting adaptive capacity and awareness, promoting research and innovation, and strengthening the policy and legal framework. 371. Specific high priorities include those to adapt agricultural productivity (developing suitable irrigation systems and climate-adapted crops) and livestock production (adapting farms and facilities), and to adapt natural resources management (ensuring protective cover for soil surface or plant residues, improve the soil structure maintenance and maintaining and improving existing aquaculture habitats). Other high priorities to support these actions include developing knowledge dissemination, establishing a formal platform for aquaculture and developing enhanced ecosystem observation systems. 372. High priorities for research and innovation to support CCA include developing new crop varieties and developing climate information systems and the early warning system. Priorities to strengthen the legal framework are identified as updating and amending the legislation affecting fisheries and aquaculture, and elaborating the National Strategy for Agricultural Development. Finally, the need to strengthen risk management should be addressed through prioritizing development of insurance and risk management programs. 373. All the above actions are assessed at low or medium cost except in the case of developing suitable irrigation systems and adapting livestock farms and facilities. 5.3.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 374. As noted in Section 4.2.2 the legal and methodological gaps for BD&ES contribute to a higher level of uncertainty regarding CCA than for other sectors and to reduce this uncertainty requires implementation of adaptation options addressing a range of strategic objectives. Therefore, proposed highest priority actions are included for strategic objectives for: enhancing ecosystem governance; enhancing knowledge management, education and stakeholder --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 109 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan communication; creating space for biodiversity and ecosystems; and increasing climate change resilience by reducing pressures not related to climate change. It is also noted that in this sector in particular, the role of education and science is a prerequisite for developing awareness, knowledge and information, adaptive behavior and policy design. 375. Key priority actions for enhancing ecosystem governance address aligning strategic planning and implementation legislation, and include developing and adopting the new Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan and a new Green Infrastructure Strategy with regard to ecosystem-based management, conservation, restoration and CCA. This also includes reviewing and amending legislation in the environment and related sectors to reflect implementation of ecosystem-based adaptation in line with these new strategies. 376. Proposed high priorities to enhance knowledge management, education and communication for adaptation include: to operationalize ecosystem data interoperability between authorities and other actors, encouraging participative science: via multidisciplinary research contests, targeted collection of folk customs and traditional knowledge, enabling volunteer sharing and Implementing new training programs at all educational levels. 377. Priority actions for creating space for biodiversity and ecosystems are proposed as developing regional/local ‘red lines’ to prevent loss of ecosystem services vital for CCA as well as regional/local BD conservation and restoration programs to boost delivery of ecosystem services. 378. Finally, high priorities to increase climate change resilience by reducing pollution, disturbance and overexploitation are: the estimation of carrying capacity for vital ecosystems and production capacity for their services; and the use self-monitoring and EIA for tracking ES exploitation, disturbance and stocks. 379. The above priority actions have been assessed as low or medium costs, except for those related to creating space for biodiversity and ecosystems, and increasing climate change resilience, which are estimated as medium to high cost. 5.3.3. Energy 380. Highest priorities identified for the energy sector include nine actions across three strategic objectives. All of these actions are essential preliminary actions for the objectives of building capacity, mainstreaming CCA and enhancing climate resilience, and all have been assessed as low or no cost measures. 381. For the strategic objective to “build institutional capacity, knowledge and use of data for adaptation” priorities are seen as expanding the work of the National Expert Council to cover climate change adaptation, providing training to the MEn, regulator and wider energy sector decision makers/operators on climate change adaptation, and undertaking meetings with NIMH to define needs for climate services and centralized agreement for provision of climate services. 382. For the strategic objective to ‘mainstream climate change considerations into energy sector policies, plans and financial mechanisms’ priorities include undertaking an inventory of strategies, policies, plans, standards, energy infrastructure design codes etc. to identify where --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 110 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan climate resilience should be incorporated, as well as ensuring outcomes of the Sector Assessment report for Energy are built into the climate-energy plan and climate resilience is mainstreamed into the new Energy Strategy. 383. Under the strategic objective to ’incorporate climate resilience into design and engineering’ priorities are given as ensuring that climate resilience is integrated into water resources management and associated decisions on operation of large HPPs, developing maps of climate risk zones (to inform decisions on T&D networks in relation to climate resilience) and continuing to monitor causes of interruptions to the T&D system. 5.3.4. Forestry 384. The eight identified short term highest priorities in the Forestry Sector focus on foundation actions for building capacity for research, education and extension, maintenance of biodiversity, genetic diversity and forest resilience, and enhancing management of forest resources. These priorities have been assessed as low or medium cost with EU funding supplementing national sources. 385. For the Strategic objective to ‘enhance the knowledge base and awareness for climate change adaptation’ highest priorities include establishing a research and development coordination body for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and initiating a research program to support climate change adaptation of forests. For the strategic objective to ‘enhance and protect the forest resources’ key proposed priorities are to promote management strategies that maximize species, genetic and structural diversity, build a national system for rapid fire detection and response, as well as a national system for long-term disturbance monitoring, and undertaking a National Forest Inventory. 5.3.5. Human health 386. The present lack of activity related to CCA by health sector institutions and absence of dedicated climate and health related structure involved in the adaptation policy making process (as noted in section 2.3.5) provides the basis for selection of the priority activities for this sector. The nine short term highest priority activities are, therefore, prerequisites for subsequent activities in the action plan and support the strategic objectives to ‘enhance governance for adaptation’ and to ‘build the knowledge base and awareness for adaptation’. All have been assessed as low or medium cost. 387. The actions identified as highest priorities to enhance governance include development of a National Strategy and Action Plan ‘Climate change and Human Health’ and actualization of legislation, regulations, standards etc. To facilitate these priorities, it is proposed that it will be necessary to pre-explore requirements by undertaking a critical review of all such documents relevant to CCHH to make recommendations for actualization. Further, it is proposed that a critical review of climate change related infrastructure and technological equipment needs of the health sector should be undertaken to make recommendations for priority improvements. It is also proposed to establish an inter-disciplinary CCHH Working Group to provide vertical and horizontal communication and a special national CCHH fund. The actions identified as highest priorities to build the knowledge base and awareness for adaptation include launching a multimedia campaign on CCHH to develop public awareness, developing a national early --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 111 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan warning system for health effects of climate change and enhancing research knowledge on CCHH. 5.3.6. Tourism 388. The highest priorities for short term are identified as those that address the current limited involvement of the tourism sector in CCA activities. These are specific measures under the strategic objectives to enhance awareness and the knowledge base for climate change adaptation and to build adaptive capacity in the tourist sector, and focus on five soft measures that provide a foundation for the development of more specific and more detailed adaptation options. 389. For awareness raising on climate change specific high priorities are seen as wider dissemination of CCA knowledge to local tourism entrepreneurs and the development of tourism indicators sensitive to climate change, as well as climate change indicators relevant to the tourism sector. In terms of building adaptive capacity in the sector, highest priorities include the development of assessment tools for adaptive capacity and carrying out climate change - related training. 5.3.7. Transport 390. High priority actions in the transport sector refer to the need to lay the foundation for a more systematic approach to understanding and addressing CCA issues by stakeholders in the various subsectors. Six specific high priority actions have been identified related to the strategic objectives to build institutional capacity and the knowledge base of the transport sector and to mainstream climate change adaptation considerations into key planning and decision-making processes. 391. Priorities for institutional capacity building include assigning CCA responsibilities in the statute and internal procedures of the relevant stakeholders per transport subsectors (based on review and gap analysis), undertaking a training needs assessment and implementing training programs. For building the knowledge base a priority is to introduce and/or improve CCA relevant data collection practice and gradually build data base/s for dedicated studies. Most of the stakeholders collect statistical data about the impact of climate events due to their operational and financial obligations and responsibilities. Combining available information and linking it to the common meteorological data base, that is suggested to be established, will bring high benefits for the transport sector knowledge base at negligible costs. 392. Priorities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation are the development of guidelines for considering CCA issues in the project management cycle as well as a review and update of design codes. In particular, this refers to an update of guidelines for design of roads and railways culverts and bridges in order to improved resilience of newly built infrastructure. 5.3.8. Urban environment 393. The range of actions identified as high priority in the urban environment sector reflects the scope and complexity of climate change impacts in this context. These priority actions therefore address adaptation needs across number of fronts including foundation actions to support the strategic objectives to strengthen the policy and legal framework to mainstream --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 112 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan adaptation to climate change; build adaptive capacity; and enhance knowledge management, research, education and stakeholder communication for adaptation. 394. Mainstreaming CCA at the policy level in regional and urban development requires prioritizing organizing a discussion forum to agree on a common vision and develop common understanding on CCA policy and strategy; revising the Spatial Planning Act; and incorporating CCA into the new National Housing Strategy. A priority for adaptive capacity is identified as building the capacity of emergency and DRM units’ capacity to allow for more appropriate reaction to crises. High priority actions also cover information (creating common standards for metadata and data, harmonized with EU at city level), research (identifying priority scientific topics for CCA of urban environment), education (organizing appropriate format education and training for all levels based on CCA educational needs assessment) and partnership (promoting partnership, networking, and collaboration among different groups). 5.3.9. Water 395. Highest priority options identified for the water sector include five prerequisite actions for supporting all three strategic objectives. To enhance adaptive governance the initial priority is to clarify roles and responsibilities for CCA to improve coordination among institutions. For strengthening the knowledge base and awareness for adaptation, the first priorities are to prepare and distribute CCA materials to raise public awareness, as well as to extend and upgrade CCA related monitoring networks of precipitation, water resources and water use and establish a dynamic, publicly available GIS database to improved decision making. To enhance adaptive management of water system infrastructure a key priority action is to revise and update design and construction norms. 5.4. Expected Results 396. General expected results are summarized in the following paragraphs for each sector. Note that Annex 3 provides more detailed information on expected results for each proposed activity. 5.4.1. Agriculture 397. Adaptation actions in the agriculture sector can be viewed as either offering short-term or long-term benefits. Actions that offer short-term benefits are those that improve resilience to extreme events or those that improve the enabling environment and governance framework to facilitate more effective adaptation in the future. Actions offering longer-term benefits are linked to agricultural assets, which frequently have long life spans and include amendments to existing or planned assets to ensure climate resilience (for instance, improved water management and renovating the irrigation infrastructure, leading to efficient use of irrigation water and conservation of soil moisture). 398. Results can also be viewed in terms of the wider socioeconomic or environmental benefits that actions offer. For instance, developing better and improved early warning systems would contribute to farmers being able to foresee the costs for protecting agricultural products as well as to respond in an efficient manner to unfavorable climatic events, thus reducing the loss of crops and livestock due to droughts, floods, or other weather extreme events. Saving costs will help to stabilize the income and revenues for farmers. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 113 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 5.4.2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services 399. The adaptation options identified in this strategy are seen as having cost-effective socioeconomic benefits. These are derived from the structural and functional links between the conservation and restoration of BD&ES services and the yield of ecosystem services that can be used for CCA. The feedback loop between anthropogenic pressures and benefits of the ecosystems services is key to adaptive management. Increases in pollution, fragmentation, extended changes in land use, and climate change decrease the provision of ecosystems’ services and hence, also human well-being and economic development. In contrast, reduction of pressures, combined with ecosystem conservation or restoration, can support adaptation and provide for economic growth and social benefits accessible to the local communities at lower cost. 400. Key specific expected results in the short term are the adoption of the Biodiversity Strategy and Green Infrastructure Strategy, and provisions for implementation of ecosystem- based adaptation in line with these strategies included in relevant legislation. Other short term expected results include those related to activities for operationalizing ecosystem data interoperability between authorities and other actors, encouraging participative science, maximizing the use of citizen science and education for ecosystem thinking. 5.4.3. Energy 401. As is the case for other sectors, adaptation measures and actions in the energy sector that offer short-term benefits are those which improve resilience to extreme events and those that improve the enabling environment and governance framework to facilitate more effective adaptation (for example, mainstreaming climate change within sector policies and plans and building institutional capacity and knowledge networks). Actions with longer-term benefits are linked to energy assets, especially those of long duration and include upgrading of existing or planned assets to ensure climate resilience (for example, T&D infrastructure). In a broad sense, improved energy sector resilience has potentially significant short- to long-term benefits, and this underlines the existing need to respond to risks associated with climate change. 402. There are also potential associated socioeconomic or environmental benefits from energy sector CCA actions. For instance, the identified measures to improve energy efficiency in buildings has the potential to offer multiple co-benefits, namely climate change mitigation objectives, improved comfort for residents and workers, which if targeted at vulnerable groups (for example, rural and urban poor) could address social inequality. In addition, the action to review the use of water for cooling processes by TPPs and NPPs has the potential to offer environmental co-benefits through reduced abstraction of freshwater. 5.4.4. Forestry 403. Adaptation of Bulgarian forests to climate change and its potential consequences, reducing the overall vulnerability of the forestry sector, and increasing its economic viability and resilience is seen as crucial for the quality of life of the Bulgarian population. Successfully adapting the forest sector to climate change will have the added benefit of increasing its mitigation effect as more carbon will be sequestered from the atmosphere and the economic importance of the sector will grow. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 114 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 404. A number of specific benefits from CCA actions are identified for the forestry sector. These include the benefits provided by applied research to support an informed response to climate change threats in forestry, the increase of forest resilience and capabilities to handle new conditions provided by the maintenance of biodiversity and genetic diversity, and the improvement in the long-term potential for sustainable use of wood biomass. 5.4.5. Human health 405. Health sector adaptation to climate change may have a wide range of favorable consequences. The overall benefits for a healthier and more economically active population will be facilitated by a number of contributing adaptation measures. These include creating awareness of CCHH issues, enhancing coordination and cooperation among different government agencies and NGOs concerned with CCA and human health, and strengthening health education and training on the impacts of climatic change on the environment and human health. These measures will all build capacity of health actors to address climate change-related health impacts. 5.4.6. Tourism 406. Overall long-term results of the proposed CCA measures for the tourist sector will be the economic benefits of exploiting the opportunities provided by a changing climate (such as developing new types of tourism and new destinations). The measures to build adaptive capacity will also increase resilience to climate change impacts in the sector. Adaptation practices should bring benefits to all tourism stakeholders both on the supply- and demand-side, as well as for the local communities and for the Bulgarian economy as a whole. The sector assessment report also identifies the potential for mitigation benefits from more sustainable resource use in the sector. 407. In the short term, key specific expected results are the development of a NAS and Action Plan for CCA in the tourism sector and better governance and coordination of adaptation actions; higher awareness, higher knowledge base and higher capacity; and the development of assessment tools for adaptive capacity and thus more adequate reaction to climate change in the sector. A further expected result from capacity building actions is better coordination, information, and communication between the responsible governmental and public institutions. 5.4.7. Transport 408. The results of the implementation of adaptation options, including the associated benefits, are difficult to evaluate with accuracy for the transport sector as they are expected to occur over a long period and depend on many external factors. However, the overall results from these activities are expected to be improved resilience to climate change for the transport infrastructure across all subsectors. This is contributed to by measures to build the institutional capacity and knowledge base of the transport sector, including through increasing CCA expertise availability across all key stakeholders, establishing and improving relevant data bases per transport sector, and improving knowledge as a basis for planning and implementing appropriate CCA measures. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation considerations into key planning and decision-making processes is also key to achieving resilience in transport infrastructure. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 115 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 5.4.8. Urban environment 409. The benefits from the identified adaptation options include the expected synergistic and cumulative effect of their simultaneous or sequential implementation. Mainstreaming CCA into regional and urban development policies, including housing and construction, will increase the effectiveness of regional policies and will ensure land protection in spatial and urban planning and development. 410. Improving information provision, accelerating the implementation of the Access to Spatial Data Act, and exchanging information will facilitate the development of scientific research, will make the decision-making process for urban development and environmental protection more transparent and reliable, and will increase the capacity of scientific institutions and different experts. 411. The development of urban research will provide new arguments for protecting public interests and improve the living and recreation environment. Research on innovative building technologies, construction, and materials will help designers and builders to create intelligent buildings and facilities, which are better resistant to climate change and extreme events. 412. Institutional development, improved horizontal and vertical coordination, and integration, cooperation between national, regional, and local levels authorities will enhance the quality and effectiveness of their work, while linking sectoral policies with spatial planning. This will also contribute to the successful implementation of an integrated and more comprehensive approach to urban renewal and development. 5.4.9. Water 413. For adaptation options supporting the strategic objective to enhance adaptive governance, expected results are identified as improved coordination among institutions, effective and efficient implementation of RBMPs, and the adoption of more water-efficient and less water polluting technologies and practices. 414. Under the strategic objective to strengthen the knowledge base and awareness for adaptation, the key expected results are the availability of the latest research achievements and reliable water monitoring data, enhanced quality of plans and programs developed by RBDs, raised public awareness, and increased preparedness of stakeholders. Overall, the adaptation actions will contribute to improved decision making under uncertainty. 415. For the strategic objective to enhance adaptive management of water system infrastructure, the expected results are the adaptive design and construction of managed water systems, identification of significant water infrastructure which needs reinforcement, and adequately and safely operated water systems. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 116 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Chapter 6. The Way Forward 416. This chapter briefly outlines the way forward for the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. This includes establishing the process of monitoring and reporting of progress in the implementation of the measures set out in the Action Plan and the requirements of performance indicators. It also provides some concluding comments on next steps in the implementation of priority actions in the Strategy and Action Plan. 6.1. Monitoring and Reporting 417. Monitoring and Reporting under the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2019-2030 (NAS) and its Action Plan should be a participatory process, which enables capacity building and understanding, as well as applying lessons learned from the activities’ experience. It will be performed in accordance with the recently approved Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union24, which incorporates the respective provisions of the existing Climate Monitoring Mechanism Regulation25 and harmonizes them with those of the Paris Climate Agreement. 418. The monitoring and reporting process shall serve several purposes, as follows:  Facilitating timely identification and resolution of problems;  Enhancing the performance of the planned activities;  Providing the basis for technical and financial accountability;  Building institutional and local capacity to implement and manage the planned actions successfully; and  Promoting the identification and dissemination of lessons learned by participants themselves. 419. Monitoring involves the collection and analysis of data about implemented activities. The data should be easy to understand and will be incorporated in the reports. The monitoring should allow stakeholders to keep track of the activities, to determine whether the objectives are being achieved and to make whatever changes are necessary to improve the performance (an outline of the requirements of performance indicators is given in Section 6.2). 420. Pursuant to the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union, reporting on the national adaptation actions will be performed every 2 years, starting in 2021. Progress in implementation of measures envisaged in the Action Plan under the Strategy (Annex 3) will be assessed in one mid-term and one final official report, to be drafted and presented to the Council of Ministers respectively in 2025 and in 2031. Implementation of the short-term measures of highest priority, as identified in Chapter 5.3 of this Strategy and highlighted in green in the sectoral Action Plans, will be assessed in the initial report to be developed in 2021. The performance will be strengthened and further refined on the basis of experience gained from implemented activities. 24 Final compromise text of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union was approved by the European Parliament, Council and Commission in a trialogue on 20 June 2018, pending formal adoption by the co-legislators (the Parliament and the Council). Once formally adopted, the Regulation will be published in the EU Official Journal and will enter into force 20 days after its publication. 25 Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and for reporting other information at national and Union level relevant to climate change. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 117 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 421. All reports will be submitted to the Coordination Council on Climate Change for approval. Based on the mid-term official report in 2025 the Coordination Council will assess the need for revision/update of the Strategy, and if needed will make appropriate recommendations for updating (along with specific deadlines). Method of reporting on the implementation of measures by sectors:  The implementation of the measures by 2021/2023/2025/2027/2029/2031 is to be reported by the responsible institutions by sectors and by measures.  By 10 January 2021/2023/2025/2027/2029/2031 the MoEW is to send letters to the responsible institutions identified in the Action Plan requesting information on the progress of implementation of the measures within their competences.  The responsible institutions provide the required information by 10 February 2021/2023/2025/2027/2029/2031.  By 1 March 2021/2023/2025/2027/2029/2031 the MoEW is to prepare the respective report to the European Commission, on the basis of the information received, and to submit it to the Coordination Council where the respective report is to be approved or returned for revision.  By 15 March 2021/2023/2025/2027/2029/2031 the report is to be submitted to the European Commission according to the provisions of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union.  On the basis of the biannual reports to the European Commission the MoEW will prepare the mid-term and final official reports, respectively in 2025 and 2031.  After adoption by the Coordination Council the official reports in 2025 and 2031 are to be submitted to the Council of Ministers by 30 June.  In case the respective reports need to be amended and/or supplemented they are processed within 15 calendar days.  The Coordination Council is to adopt the amendments/additions in writing, through official letters or email confirmation by the members of the Council.  The report intended for submission to the Council of Ministers should contain the following information:  Brief information on the NAS;  Brief information about the procedure of reporting on the implementation of the measures envisaged in the Action Plan;  Brief assessment of the financial resources spent for implementation of the measures by sources;  Brief analysis of the implementation of the measures themselves – whether there are problematic sectors where measures were not implemented, or the performance is significantly below the expected level and the reasons for this, as well as whether there is overachievement of measures;  Assessment whether changes in the process of reporting or update of the measures by sectors are needed with respect to various reports to the European Commission, new EU requirements or expected new legislation; --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 118 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Brief information on the implementation of measures with indirect effect, including in the field of education and science and of administrative measures.  The reports are prepared in a table format predefined by the MoEW, which includes the following columns:  Description of the measure;  Responsible institution;  Utilized financial resources by sources of funding;  Indicator for implementation of the measure;  Target value in 2021/2025/2031;  Reported value in 2021/2025/2031;  Difference between target value and reported value for each year. Main tasks of the Coordination Council on Climate Change (in the context of the NAS):  Review of the reports under NAS within the relevant time limits and the approved format;  In case of non-performance of the interim objectives – provide recommendations for further actions/measures to achieve the ultimate goals of the Strategy;  Assessment of the need for revision/update of the NAS and preparation of relevant recommendations for updating (with specific deadlines);  Provide opinions on various issues related to the national policy on climate change, including on draft legislation discussed at EU and national level, on elaborated national reports, plans, etc.  Opinions on other issues/materials sent by the Secretariat or provided during meetings of the Coordination Council. 6.2. Performance Indicators 422. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of the Action Plan requires deciding which information provides the best measure of progress and performance. Guidance on M&E is given in a number of sources including EC (2013b). Arrangements to monitor and evaluate progress can focus on processes and outcomes of implemented actions in meeting objectives and should also be able to capture unintended maladaptive consequences. 423. Identifying appropriate indicators should take account of the following:  Existing indicators and datasets, which may already measure the required outcomes or can be adjusted for the purposes of the action plan. To the extent feasible, indicators from the Eurostat database26 should be used, as well as from the information system for monitoring the government program and for implementation of the annual objectives of the administration of the CoM (Council for Administrative Reform 2010). 26 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 119 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan  Other influences on the indicator parameters, which may partly account for progress (or lack of progress) toward objectives. This includes autonomous adaptation which may occur alongside planned actions.  The cost of collecting the information for the indicator which should not be more than the value of the information for M&E purposes. 424. Each of the activities listed in the Action Plan includes a proposed indicator or set of indicators for monitoring performance (see Annex 3). To the extent possible, current and expected outcomes have been given. Further agreement and development of these indicators will be needed in consultation with implementing institutions. 6.3. Concluding Comments 425. The range of actions for each sector set out in this Action Plan provides a firm basis for implementation of the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in the period up to 2030. The Action Plan should, however, be treated as an evolving document in that the range and detail of actions supporting each strategic objective will need to be fine-tuned and improved over time, as envisaged in the Monitoring and Reporting arrangements outlined above. A key role is to be played by the MoEW in leading and coordinating adaptation actions at the national level in cooperation with involved ministries and other institutions in line with this Strategy and Action Plan. 426. A number of high priority actions have been identified (as outlined in Section 5.3) that should be the focus of implementation in the short term, since they provide an essential foundation for enabling other subsequent medium and long-term actions. These priority actions focus, in particular, on soft measures to raise awareness and promote education on climate change adaptation and build adaptation capacity and knowledge. In general, these high priority short-term actions have been assessed as no cost or low cost. 427. Since mid- and long- term priorities are more investment intensive (for example, related to infrastructure improvement) this will allow time in the shorter term to assess and develop available and potential financial resources to support these actions. This should include exploring climate financing options in the post-2020 Multiannual Financial Framework. Pursuing such options, will also allow this Strategy and Action Plan to be a valuable tool in support of the mainstreaming of climate change into the EU budget for the programming period beyond 2020. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 120 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan References Adger, W.N. and K. Vincent. 2005. “Uncertainty in Adaptive Capacity.” External Geophysics, Climate and Environment 337(4): 399–410. Adger, W.N., S. Agrawala, M. M. Q. Mirza, C. Conde, K. O’Brien, J. Pulhin, R. Pulwarty, B. Smit, and K. Takahashi. 2007. “Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity.” In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Edited by M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson, 717–743. Contribution of WGII to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. BAS (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences). 2011. Red Data Book of the Republic of Bulgaria 2011: Volume 3 "Habitats.” Sofia: Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research. Brown, A., M. Gawith, K. Lonsdale, and P. Pringle. 2011. Managing Adaptation: Linking Theory and Practice. United Kingdom: UKCIP (U.K. Climate Impacts Programme). Council for Administrative Reform. 2010. Methodology for Strategic Planning in the Republic of Bulgaria. Republic of Bulgaria: Council for Administrative Reform. Council of the European Union. 2017. Council Conclusions on progress towards integrating climate in the EU Budget (7495/17, ECOFIN, 21/03/2017) DG ECFIN (2018) Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Forecast, spring 2018, EC (European Commission). 2013a. An EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and The Committee of the Regions, Brussels, 16.4.2013 COM (2013) 216 final. ———. 2013b. Guidelines on Developing Adaptation Strategies. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and The Committee of the Regions, Brussels, 16.4.2013 SWD (2013) 134 final. ———. 2013c. General Union Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’, Decision No. 1386/2013/EU of The European Parliament and of The Council of 20 November 2013. ———. 2016 The Midterm Review of the Multiannual Financial Framework (COM (2016) 603) ———. 2017 Climate mainstreaming in the EU budget: Preparing for the next MFF, Directorate General Climate Action /DG CLIMA/. Report 2017/10. ECA (European Court of Auditors), 2017. European Court of Auditors' special report 31/2016 on progress towards integrating climate in the EU Budget. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 121 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan EEA (European Environment Agency). 2017. Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in Europe Enhancing Coherence of the Knowledge Base, Policies, and Practices. EEA Report No. 15/2017. Forzieri, G., L. Feyen, S. Russo, M. Vousdoukas, L. Alfieri, S. Outten, M. Migliavacca, A. Bianchi, R. Rojas, and A. Cid. 2016. “Multi-Hazard Assessment in Europe under Climate Change.” Climatic Change 137: 105–119. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x. Grothmann, T. 2011. “Governance Recommendations for Adaptation in European Urban Regions: Results from Five Case Studies and a European Expert Survey.” In Resilient Cities - Cities and Adaptation to Climate Change - Proceedings of the Global Forum 2010, edited by K. Otto-Zimmermann. Hamburg: Springer, 67–175. IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). 2014. “Chapter 2: Foundations of Decision Making.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by R. Jones, et al. 53. Kostov, G. and E. Raffailova. 2009. Dynamics of Forest Resources in Bulgaria Under Different Management Regimes. Sofia: Avangard Prima. Kovats, S., K. L. Ebi, and B. Menne. 2003. Methods of Assessing Human Health Vulnerability and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change. Number 1 in Health and Global Environmental Change Series. WHO (World Health Organization), Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark. Lebel, L., T. Grothmann, and B. Siebenhüner. 2010. “The Role of Social Learning in Adaptiveness: Insights from Water Management.” International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 10 (4): 333–353. Mihaylova, R. A. 2014. Analysis and Evaluation of Risks and Vulnerabilities in the Area of Human Health. Report for MoEW. MoEW (Ministry of Environment and Water). 2012. The Third National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) 2013–2020, prepared by the MoEW and the Interinstitutional Commission on Climate Change, Sofia. ———. 2014. National Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for the Sectors of the Bulgarian Economy. MoEW: Sofia. MTITC (Ministry of Transport, Information Technology, and Communications). 2017. Environmental Assessment of Integrated Transport Strategy for the Period until 2030. MTITC: Sofia Nordic Council of Ministers. 2017. Report on Mitigation & Adaptation Synergies in the NDCs OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2015. The Economic Consequences of Climate Change. OECD, ENV/EPOC (2015)12/REV1. Popov, A., M. Nikolova and S. Dimitrov. 2014a. Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Assessment of Bulgaria’s Economic Sectors - General Part, document developed under the EU Operational Program ‘Environment 2007–2013’. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 122 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan ———. 2014b. National Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for the Sectors of the Bulgarian Economy - Special Section, document developed under the EU Operational Program ‘Environment 2007–2013’. Prutsch, A., T. Grothmann, I. Schauser, S. Otto, and S. McCallum. 2010. Guiding Principles for Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe. Technical Paper 2010/6. European Topic Center on Air and Climate Change ETC/ACC. UKCIP (U.K. Climate Impacts Programme). 2005. Identifying Adaptation Options. Oxford: UKCIP. ———. 2007. Identifying Adaptation Options. UKCIP. UNCCS (United Nations Climate Change Secretariat). 2017. Opportunities and options for integrating climate change adaptation with the Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, Technical paper, UNCCA. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/techpaper_adaptation.pdf UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe). 2017. Environmental Performance Reviews, Bulgaria, Third Review, UNECE. WHO (World Health Organization). 2009. Improving Public Health Responses to Extreme Weather/Heat-Waves – EuroHEAT, Technical Summary, Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe, 60. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 123 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Annex 1. Climate Change Scenarios in the Bulgarian Context Global climate change has substantially increased the probability of various recent extreme weather and climate events in Europe. Improved climate projections provide further evidence that the frequency of such events will intensify, with significant impact on ecosystems and societies. The impacts of climate change across regions in Europe are not uniform. Climate change impacts do not affect all people and territories equally due to different levels of exposure, existing vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacities to cope. Southeastern and southern Europe are projected to be hotspot regions, having the highest numbers of severely affected sectors and domains. The risk is greater for the segments of the society and businesses that are less prepared and more vulnerable. Bulgaria is situated in one of the regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate change (mainly through temperature increase) and to the increased frequency of climate change-related extreme events, such as flash floods and droughts. Most scientific projections indicate that global temperature will rise between 1.8°C and 4°C by 2100. The temperature increase in Europe is expected to be even higher than the estimated global average. A recent multi-hazard climate risk assessment (Forzieri et al. 2016) supported by the FP7 ENHANCE project showcased that Europe could face a consistent increase in overall climate-related hazards (heat waves, cold waves, droughts, wildfires, river floods, coastal floods, and windstorms). The results were based on a set of regional climate model simulations under the SRES A1B scenario with a reference period (1981–2010) and three projected periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). According to the assessment, by 2080, vast areas in Spain, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Italy, France, the Balkan countries, as well as Bulgaria and Romania will be subject to “increases in the probability of hazard occurrence of at least 20 percent for three or even four out of the seven hazards considered” (EEA 2017). These patterns confirm the critical role of southeastern and southern Europe as hotspots of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities. Most climate models simulate an increase in air temperature in Bulgaria from 2°C to 5°C by the end of the century. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as potential related climate extremes in AR5 (IPCC 2013) show, that depending on the scenario, the average air temperature will increase by 2081–2100, compared to the norm from 1961 to 1990 by 2°C (RCP2.6) to 7°C (RCP8.5), or by 3°C (RCP4.5) to 4°C (RCP6). Winters classified as cold under the current climate will occur less often in the 2020s and will probably disappear by 2080s. In contrast, hot summers will occur more often and almost every summer is expected to be unusually hot in the 2080s. In 2014, the Department of Meteorology of the NIMH conducted a research that projects an increase in annual air temperature in Bulgaria of 1.6°C– 3.1°C by 2050 and of 2.9°C–4.1°C by 2080. According to the research, in general, the temperature increase is expected to be more significant during the summer season (from July to September). In most climate change scenarios, rainfall during the winter months is likely to increase by the end of the century. However, significant decrease in rainfall during the summer months is expected to offset this increase. The projected changes in precipitation in AR5 (IPCC 2013) show fluctuations in annual rainfall averages within the range of 10 percent (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6) and 10 percent to 20 percent (RCP8.5). All climate models predict that after 2065 and --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 124 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan until the end of the century, rainfall in the summer will decrease by 10 percent to 20 percent, and according to RCP8.5, until 2081–2100 it can reach 30 percent to 40 percent. The results from the studies of water resources in Bulgaria, based on current trends of air temperature and precipitation as well as on simulation models and climate scenarios show that the overall annual river runoff is likely to decrease during this century. Climate change scenarios for Bulgaria indicate an increased frequency of extreme events and disasters, such as droughts, heat waves, heavy rainfalls, and floods. The analysis of the expected extreme weather events, based on the use of temperature and precipitation indexes in AR5, shows that the number and intensity of dry and hot periods in the summer will increase in the country, droughts and floods will occur with greater frequency, and torrential rainfall and dangerous natural phenomena and processes associated with these changes will occur. The northeast, southeast, and Thrace regions will be the most affected by these events. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 125 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Annex 2. Sector Interrelationships in Relation to Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities Table 2.1. Sector interrelationships: Negative impacts of climate change Potential Negative Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment Decline of Reduced water Competition Accessibility of Competition Workers health Competition useful insects; availability; for water farm lands; for water and for water increase of floods; and resources; and increased resources productivity resources invasive higher transport costs may decrease competition for species; and drinking water electricity costs Agriculture disturbed for water ecological pumping; and balance higher risk of electricity grid failure Spread of Use of short Increased Use of wood as Forest Introduction of Forest workers’ Increased invasive rotation demand of renewable ecosystems’ invasive health and pressure on species from forestry may water energy source fragmentation species from productivity forest agriculture decrease resources may conflicts and decrease urban may decrease ecosystems lands; and biodiversity; lead to higher carbon due to territories due to from land-use and demand for sequestration development increased development conflicts trade-offs such water functions of of transport summer of tourist as land-take harvesting, forests while infrastructure temperatures; infrastructure Forestry may be thus draining providing and easier and at new harmful certain forest market spread of high risk for localities due ecosystems opportunities invasive forest workers to decreased below water species health while quality of older catchments coping with localities increased associated with natural climate change disturbances in forests --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 126 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Potential Negative Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment Impacts from Over- Decreased Competition Ecosystem Introduction of Demand for Overexploitatio intensification exploitation of resilience of for water fragmentation IAS through water n of ecosystem of agriculture provisioning ecosystems by resources in transport pets procedures services in to meet food services in competition for between corridors; and may divert or tourist/ demands forests may water hydropower spread of IAS pollute water recreation deplete other resources with and BD&ES resource in sites; ecosystems irrigation services ecosystems destruction of (for example, infrastructure habitats if BD&ES rise in erosion, carrying decreased capacity is water exceeded retention) and/or insufficient EIA for building infrastructure and tourism facilities Water- Deteriorated Pressures may Competition Damage to Higher Less water and Increase in intensive condition of be created by for water transport temperatures/ more number of agricultural forests due to water scarcity resources with infrastructure dry spells will concentrated tourists may (a) practices and storms and and climatic other sectors from extreme lead to pollutants increase water increased droughts changes which weather events increased might require demand and temperatures affects water lead to may hinder water new treatment (b) put stress Water may put stress catchment and increase of IAS access to water consumption in methods for on wastewater on irrigation surface water resulting in infrastructure, urban areas water collection and system quality improper especially in purification treatment functioning of emergencies and water systems wastewater treatment --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 127 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Potential Negative Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment Increased Increased Increased Increasing Lower levels of Increased Increased heat- Prolonged demand for restrictions/ restrictions/ water scarcity Danube River demand for related health summer pumped legislation to legislation to will create due to more energy for and safety risks season and irrigation due to protect forests protect natural tensions frequent/ cooling for higher summer more frequent/ may affect environment between severe drought systems due to maintenance temperatures severe droughts location of may affect different users will affect river higher workers will increase and prolonged energy assets location of (for example, transport; and temperatures number of growing season energy assets; agriculture, cold spells will tourists and will increase and public supply, freeze Danube need for Energy demand for and River and cooling increased energy and temperature ecosystems) suspend systems in competition for with changes in and will affect transportation summer water resources precipitation availability of (higher energy between may increase water for demand) sectors IAS damage to power cooling generation systems of TPPs and NPPs Poorly Forest damage Biodiversity Damage to Disruption of Disruption of Increased heat- Increased use maintained (for example, protection transport power supply public related health of transport irrigation and erosion on requirements infrastructure may impact transport and safety risks infrastructure drainage slopes) may may increase and disruption transport operation due for workers may increase infrastructure disrupt road transport of services due services; and to extreme the could damage and rail project costs; to failures in damaged weather maintenance transport operation and hydro- energy events; and costs Transport infrastructure increased risk melioration infrastructure higher of IAS damage and can cause construction to transport hydropower; damage to and infrastructure and failures in transport maintenance water supply infrastructure costs of urban and sewerage transport systems may infrastructure --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 128 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Potential Negative Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment damage transport infrastructure and disrupt services Competition Green Varied impact Competition Higher Effect on urban Pressure on Cultural and for water corridors on biodiversity for water electricity transport health and heritage site resources interruption by in urban areas; resources; supply cost in services in social urban threatened by between deforestation; and alien water summer; and extreme services; and fire, floods, and irrigation and water sources species and shortages and damages to weather more stress on so on urban water less protected; pest breeding; stress; poor supply network urban Urban supply; quality drinking due to storms, population Environment and Destruction of fire threat in habitats of water; and icing fire threat to urban areas urban species flooding due to urban areas near in case of old sewerage near forests agricultural improper EE infrastructure burning renovation of buildings Threats to food Air pollution Pollens; Health impacts Health threats Deteriorated Increased Shorter winter due to more from forest invasion of of: floods, from sudden air quality due intensity of touristic extreme events fires; and harmful phyto- insufficient power outages higher heat islands; season; (droughts, conditions for species; and water supply, due to extreme aggressiveness higher Health Human floods, high development water pollution weather events of to transport aggressiveness accidents invasion of Health temperatures, of harmful from heavy emissions of air pollution during tourist harmful zoo- and so on) species rains, invasion under changed at higher activity under species of harmful thermal and temperature extreme water species humidity weather conditions conditions --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 129 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Potential Negative Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment Food Negative Loss of Effects on Supply needs Impacts on Endangered Biophysical production climate effects regulating water for heating and infrastructure cultural assets thresholds on forest ecosystem availability/ cooling and in cities (for example, landscapes services can shortages accessibility higher lead to the loss temperatures; Tourism of assets and fewer (for example, activity and protection sports tourism from erosion, products avalanches) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 130 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Table 2.2. Sector interrelationships: Positive impacts of climate change Potential Positive Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment Shelterbelts Increased Opportunities Opportunities: Road network Opportunities Increased Development reduce climate ‘green to develop new Biomass as improvement for food demand for of new food effects; and agriculture’ crop species fuel; benefits reserves for health food types; and farm Agriculture erosion control subsidized by requiring less producing bio agriculture— disasters and products tourism EU funds may water gas; saving costs of urban raise crop yield transport agriculture and wind and solar farming Development Building Increased Opportunities Improved Decrease of Increased Shift of of new forest ecosystem importance of to use low- control of fire wood fuel use interest in demand from shelterbelts resilience by water- value wood as and other in urban benefits for forests from increases creating provisioning renewable disturbing environment human health; wood source to forest migration services of energy source; events due to will improve forest recreation territories and corridors; fire forests and improved better carbon ecosystem areas forest corridors detection and hence, energy transport sequestration services, control; and increased production infrastructure; functions and including Forestry assigning of economic facilities will and increased other recreation, permanent importance of generally funding to limit ecosystem lead to grassland forests will reduce air erosion and functions of decreased assist pollution thus landslides close forests pressure on management positively to transport forests as practices, affecting forest infrastructure source, mainly which enhance ecosystems of wood forest resilience --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 131 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Potential Positive Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment Increase of Ecosystem- Green Increase of Wind Green Development Development ‘green based forest infrastructure solar energy protection infrastructure of urban/rural of ecotourism agriculture’ management for water production belts on roads will provide green may reduce subsidized by may enhance retention; may reduce air may decrease urban wildlife infrastructure impact on BD&ES EU funds may regulating erosion and and water fragmentation refugia may support ecosystem support crop- ecosystem flood pollution and create the decrease in land ecosystem services protection; and migration pollution and resilience provides routes heat-related wildlife refugia conditions Water-efficient Retention and Water Clean energy Retention and Better human Sustainable agriculture filtration of provision and means clean filtration of health may tourism—less saves water in water to water water water to mean less pressure on catchment for underground purification underground medical water water supply water bodies ecosystem water bodies contaminants Water by forest services; and by urban green in wastewater ecosystems can evapo- infrastructure help mitigate transpiration can help water may mitigate mitigate water shortages droughts shortages Increased use Increased Increase in Reduced of wood in biomass river flow demand for construction production due affecting the energy for will improve to climate performance of heating due to Energy energy change hydropower warmer winter efficiency of contributes to (small and temperatures housing stock increased large) renewable fuel --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 132 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Potential Positive Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment Demand for Protection of Green Freight Incentives for Incentive for Demand for freight transport infrastructure transport sustainable cleaner and transport transport infrastructure on transport demand for urban sustainable services; driver services from improved routes can transporting transport transport for alternative growth of tree increase wind, energy modes, for modes of species landslide, and resources example, transportation erosion cycling, protection; and walking. Transport more resilient ecosystems (improved water provision and reduced eutrophication) can benefit water transport Alternative Preservation of Green Lower Lower snow Longer season More visitors food existing forests infrastructure electricity connected for outside and higher production for improves and preserved supply costs in costs; and activities; and revenues for urban urban biodiversity warmer more mobility more options cities’ tourism Urban population; microclimate improve winters; and for cycling Environment options in urban quality of more solar warmer agriculture urban energy seasons development environment production for (pedestrian, urban needs bicycle) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 133 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Potential Positive Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Urban Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Human Health Tourism Environment More and New forests Improved Longer period Lower air More regular More use of Health benefits better and longer natural for watersports pollution due to winter green space from new agricultural vegetation environment and outdoor green energy transportations due to longer tourism production due period due to due to recreation due to more due to the warm season opportunities, to longer climate change increased intensive solar longer periods for example, seasons and biodiversity; radiation, with dry and longer summer Human new species and increased warmer season Health regulation of frequency of weather micro-climate strong winds, in built and environment better climatic conditions for some “energy” plants New food New tourism Opportunities Saving water Longer average Better access More attractive New tourism types produced products for new reduces stay to (new) under scenario products— and offered to (berries, tourism vulnerabilities, tourism of extreme Spatial tourists mushrooms); products and allow to cater destinations weather events Planning Act, Tourism and forests as destinations greater and attractions wellness, buffer zones number of wellbeing (water storage, tourists; and carbon longer average sequestration) stay --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 134 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Annex 3. Climate Change Adaptation Action Plans – Per Sector This annex presents the final draft Action Plan tables for each sector. These include information for each proposed activity on budgets, priority, duration, expected results, performance indicators, and institutional responsibilities. These proposed details for each activity are indicative and to be further consulted with stakeholders and further developed during the process of implementation of the Action Plan. Key to abbreviations in the table:  Priority is defined as follows: ST (within 5 years), MT (5 to 10 years), or LT (after 10 years). Those activities which have been assessed as the highest priority are shown in green highlight in the priority column.  Duration is defined as follows: Short (<5 years), Medium (5 to 10 years), Long (>10 years).  Each adaptation option is scored according to three cost categories (note that, where available, the tentative budget estimates used in the CBAs have been inserted instead of cost categories). These are defined as follows: o Low (L) (up to €1 million) – for measures that, for example, concern small investments related to smaller-scale research activities, governance framework, policy development, legislative activities, existing educational programs, capacity building, knowledge transfer, modification of routine operations, required new personnel, external experts, event organization running costs, and so on. o Medium (M) (€1–100 million) – for measures that require dedicated funding, either through identified line items in national/ministerial budgets or external funding. investments related to, for example, research projects and trial including information technology, new infrastructure, projects on monitoring and fast response systems, and so on. o High (H) (€100 million and more) – for major investments related to new infrastructure at a wider scale. Country-level investment programs and compensatory payments. Requiring external financial and technical support, including major retrofitting of existing assets and significant modifications to plans for new assets. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 135 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Agriculture Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 1. Sustainable 1.1 Adapt 1.1.1 Develop suitable 347.81 National, ST Short Rehabilitation of irrigated infrastructure, expected Total irrigated area % of Increase total irrigated area in UAA by 2.5%; MAFF, Farmers, stakeholders management of agricultural irrigation systems private benefits include reduction in soil wetting, reduction Utilized Agricultural Area is increase irrigated area by 50% (45,000 ha, Irrigation agricultural productivity in soil evaporation losses; reduction in losses of crop 3.00; irrigated areas is investments €59,170,000); increase irrigated Systems EAD, practices for production, improvement in the irrigation system for 100,000 ha; average areas of intensive crops by 20%; MoEW adaptation to intensive crops; achievement of efficiency in investment for irrigation per climate change irrigation ha is €1,315 1.1.2 Adjust the timing 59.51 Private MT Medium Adjusted the timing of farm operations, (planting or Crop production of Save 10% on labor cost per ha; increase Farmers MAFF, MoEW of farm operations sowing dates and treatments), in response to agricultural holding is €31,800 investment for irrigation per ha by 3% agrophenology; improved agricultural productivity; increased agriculture productivity 1.1.3 Grow 6.80 Private MT Medium Growth of thermophilic crops, increase in thermal Crop production of Save 15% variable costs; increase farmer Farmers MAFF thermophilic crops resources, and explore opportunities to grow more agricultural holding is income by 2.5% within the country thermophilic crops within the country; improvement €31,800; total variable cost in agricultural productivity and conditions for €17,391,536; average farmer sustainable agricultural production net income €9,300 1.1.4 Develop climate- L Private MT Medium Develop climate-adapted crops; improvement in Crop production of 5% decrease variable costs MAFF, Executive Farmers adapted crops productivity of crop; increase in the crop yield; agricultural holding is Agency for Plant Variety increase in agriculture production €31,800; total variable cost Testing, Field €17,391,536 Inspection, and Seed Control 1.1.5 Improve pest L National, ST Short Improvement of pest management, integrated pest Investment of agricultural 10% savings in the investment for protection; MAFF, Stakeholders, branch and disease control private management actions that prevent pest and disease, holding for control save costs by 5% for animal protection; Bulgarian Food associations decrease the risk of spread of numerous weeds, protection; investment in Safety Agency diseases, and pests in agriculture, improve quality of animal health prevention (BFSA), farmers agricultural products, increase crop yield per ha; improved animal health protection, decrease losses caused by infections and animal diseases 1.2 Adapt 1.2.1 Adapt farms and 128.26 Private MT Medium Improved well-being status of animals; increase in Value of investments for fixed saved variable costs by 30% MAFF, Stakeholders livestock facilities the rate of return on investment for facilities assets €51,835,195; increase livestock (associations), BFSA production in the number of well-being farmers animals; livestock production at €873 million; variable costs amount to €20,309,490 1.2.2 Diversify M National, MT Medium Diversified livestock farming and introduction of Livestock production €873 10% rate of return of investments; Livestock MAFF, Executive livestock farming private more heat-tolerant livestock breeds and adapting million farmers Agency for Selection animals to weather conditions; increase in and Reproduction in investment for diversified livestock Livestock Breeding, stakeholders 1.2.3 Save existing M EU, ST Short Achieved well-managed pastures, improvement in Animal output basic prices is Animal output increase by 5% Livestock MAFF, MoEW pastures for grazing Private current practices for grassland management and €990.1 million farmers encourage restoration of degraded land, produce good livestock feed from pasture; make a benefit from pastures and from using rotational grazing, improved quality of animal products (milk and meat). Environmental benefits: Well-managed pastures have several environmental advantages: decrease soil erosion potential, require minimal pesticides and fertilizers, grazing can contribute to improve fertility of the animals. Reduced production costs, increased animal output per acre, land-use efficiency. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 137 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 1.3 Adapt 1.3.1 Increase the use M Private ST Short Increase in fruit production and yield, improvement Perennial crop yield per Increase perennial crop yield; increase areas Farmers MAFF natural of perennial crops in the quality of fruits hectare (kg) - 7,400; area under cultivation resources under cultivation - 17,596 ha management 1.3.2 Ensure a L Private Achievement of sustainable soil management and Crop production is €2.532.47 Increase farm income Farmers MAFF, MoEW, ‘Nikola (soil erosion, protective cover for increased agricultural yields; protection of arable million; increase crop Pushkarov’ Institute of desertification; the soil surface or areas from soil erosion; introduction of agricultural production by 15% Soil Science and water shortage plant residues and management practices against crop Agroecology and irrigation; composition of an agricultural area fisheries and 1.3.3 Improve the soil M Private MT Medium Improvement in soil structure maintenance and Crop production is €2,532.47 Increase crop production Farmers MAFF, MoEW, ‘Nikola aquaculture) structure restoration and increase the soil’s infiltration million Pushkarov’ Institute of maintenance capacity; introduction of agricultural and Soil Science and management practices against crop composition Agroecology 1.3.4 Increase the M Private MT Medium Improvement in soil structure; increase in soil Total organic area (ha) Total organic area (ha) 160,620 Farmers MAFF, EEA, soil’s organic matter organic matter, management practices including 160,620 stakeholders reserves crop rotations, protection of soil organic reserves, which are the basis for productive organic farming and sustainable agricultural systems. 1.3.5 Use soil H Private ST Short Achievement of minimum pressure on the soil Crop production of Increase crop production of agricultural Farmers MAFF, EEA, cultivation machines surface; improvement in soil capacity to retain agricultural holding is €31,800 holding by 5% stakeholders, ‘Nikola and technologies water; increase in soil productivity Pushkarov’ Institute of Soil Science and Agroecology 1.3.6 Improve water National, MT Medium Improvement in water management practices, Average water save cost €360 cost-savings for water per ha, 5% decrease Farmers MAFF, Irrigation management Private implementation of management practices to ensure per ha; current total average the losses Systems EAD, MoEW practices the effective use of water (reducing water losses) water cost €36,000,000 improving irrigation practices and efficiency, and recycling or storing water. 1.3.7 Maintain and M EU, MT Medium Maintenance and improvement of existing The GVA of aquaculture is 2.5% increase the share of aquaculture in Fish farmers MAFF, NAFA, improve existing National, aquaculture habitats; achievement of sustainable €2.5 million; total aquaculture gross value; 5% increase the aquaculture Agricultural Academy aquaculture habitats Private cultivation of aquaculture; reduction in negative production (feed material and production impact-of climate change on aquaculture; fish and other aquatic improvement of the efficient use of resources; and organisms’ consumption) creation of new habitats in deep pools, lakes, and amounted to 7,557.1 tons basins (2012) 2. Promote 2.1 Build 2.1.1 Develop climate 2.58 National ST Short Farmers will gain skills and information about Investment for training Forecasted number of trainees 3,500 MAFF, National Farmers, stakeholders, adaptive adaptive change training climate change effect on agriculture; improvement €300,000 Agricultural NRN capacity and capacity in management skills Advisory awareness in Service agricultural 2.1.2 Develop L National ST Short Development of a national database (online portal) Create web platform MAFF, MoEW Stakeholders (sectoral sector knowledge containing CCA-specific information, for raising associations), regional dissemination actions public awareness and knowledge-sharing bringing and local authorities people together for knowledge exchange 2.1.3 For aquaculture, L National, ST Short Enhancement in institutional adaptive capacity; Number of participants in training seminars Fisheries and improve the EC improvement of the knowledge of the and workshops aquacultural MAFF; NAFA knowledge of the administrative staff and stakeholders in relation to producers, administrative staff vulnerabilities of inland water; delivery of training stakeholders and stakeholders seminars, informed and competent civil servants and stakeholders 2.1.4 Development 0.25 National ST Short Developed M&E system and M&E; created M&E Number of indicators - 2 monitoring reports MAFF; MoEW Farmers, stakeholders, and improvement of a indicators, developed M&E reports. Database could and 1 evaluation report , 2 guidelines - one NAAS M&E system be used by different stakeholders, administrative for monitoring and other for assessment staff for analysis and decision making and researchers --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 138 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 2.2 Improve 2.2.1 Dissemination of L National ST Short Enhancement in dissemination of CCA knowledge to Communication plan - 1; guidelines - 2, MAFF, NRN, Farmers, stakeholders, awareness CCA knowledge local farmers, including publication of articles, number of brochures - 400; number of NAAS NAAS, regional and guidelines, researches, and studies; increase in the information meetings with local farmers - 30; local authorities resilience of the agriculture sector to future climate number of training seminars - 25 uncertainty, as well as improvement of agricultural efficiency overall; development in communication plan such as delivery of information workshops, dissemination of newsletters, brochures, risk maps, delivery of training seminars for local farmers 2.2.2 Develop L National Creation of ecosystem observation systems, Publish studies and researches MOEW MAFF, NAFA enhanced ecosystem providing knowledge for trends and consequences observation systems of climate chang, mapping ecosystem degradation and resilience, and providing warning of environmental tipping points. 3. Promote 3.1 Strengthen 3.1.1 Develop L EU, MT Medium Development of researches on new crop varieties, Crop yield Increase researches; increase number of MAFF, Stakeholders (sectoral research and research, research on new crop National, including hybrids, to increase the tolerance and research projects Agricultural associations), NRN innovation for technology varieties Private suitability of plants to temperature, moisture, and Academy climate change development other relevant climatic conditions; increase in adaptation and innovation number of research methods and technologies for new crop varieties and new adapted technologies; development of genetic and selective research projects to create new varieties with increased crop productivity and quality adapted to the market and climate change; decrease in the risk of losses agricultural production (crop and livestock) 3.1.2 Develop farm- M EU, MT Medium Introduction of innovation practice and technologies Average crop yield organic Increase organic agricultural products; and MAFF, Stakeholders, level resource private for efficient resource management; decrease in the agricultural products; number increase number of organic farms. Agricultural Academy management risk of climate change of organic farms and universities (Trakia innovations University and Agrarian University—Plovdiv) 3.1.3 Conduct EU, MT Medium Conducting research development and development Number of researches with Increase number of researches MAFF, Stakeholders, MAFF, research development National, of additional sectoral studies to identify the nature focus on climate change by Agricultural Trakia University and Private of climate risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities Agricultural Academy - 70 Academy Agrarian University— associated with current climate and projected Plovdiv, NRN changes. 3.1.4 Improve the M EU, MT Medium Improvement in technologies for cultivation of fish Value of aquaculture Increase production of aquaculture Agricultural Aquaculture and fish technologies for private and aquaculture in inland water, developing artificial production by weight is €22.8 Academy, fish producers, cultivation of fish and breeding of the fish, using selective breeding, and million and stakeholders, MAFF aquaculture and implementing genetic improvements for higher aquaculture develop re-circulating resistance; increase in production of organic producers systems for fish aquaculture; and decrease in the risk of losses breeding aquaculture production 3.1.5 Develop climate 0.35 National, MT Medium Development of climate information system, Current crop output and crop Increase crop output and crop yield MAFF, MoEW, Stakeholders, National information systems Private development of early warning systems that provide yield, livestock output farmers Institute of and the early warning daily weather predictions and seasonal forecasts; Meteorology and system improved dissemination information for weather Hydrology; regional and variability; public availability of stored data; and local authorities decrease in the risk for crop losses and yield. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 139 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 3.1.6 Carry out further L EU, MT Medium Development of researches for climate change Value of aquaculture Increase production of aquaculture; increase Agricultural MAFF, stakeholders research to better private impacts on fisheries and aquaculture; better- production is €22.8 million the research and studies Academy, understand the informed stakeholders and policy makers; decreased science interaction between risk for cultivation of aquaculture and fishes in institutes, climate change and inland. universities fisheries and (Trakia aquaculture University and Agrarian University— Plovdiv) 4. Strengthen 4.1 Strengthen 4.1.1 Improve the L National ST Short Improved legal framework: updating the legislation Number of updated acts MAFF, MoEW Stakeholders NRN policy and legal legal framework legal framework to include climate change impact policies and/or framework for adaptation actions; introduction of better adaptation in the regulations to ensure better decision making agricultural 4.1.2 Update and L National Improved legal framework: updating the legislation Number of updated acts MAFF, MoEW, Stakeholders sector amend the legislation to include climate change impact policies and/or NAFA affecting inland adaptation actions; introduction of better fisheries and regulations to ensure better decision making aquaculture 4.1.3 Elaboration of L National ST Short Improved strategic planning in sector, ensured Adopted national strategy, increased MAFF, MEW, Stakeholders, regional National Strategy for sustainable agriculture and rural development. agriculture local production, Efficiency of branch and local authorities Agricultural Defined properly the path of the future reform adaptation measures to CC, Improved the associations Development process in agriculture. Defined strategic goals and competitiveness of agriculture (crop and priorities for adaptation to climate change livestock). Sustainable use of nature resources. Gross value added of agriculture sector will increase 4.2 Strengthen 4.2.1 Develop M National, MT Medium Development of insurance and risk management % of farmers using insurance Increase % of farmers using insurance by MAFF, MoEW, Stakeholders, Insurance risk insurance and risk Private program (management strategies with respect to (current 6%); current public 20%; increase public investment for State companies management management climate loss of crop yields and subsidized crop investment is €4,500,000 insurance by 10% Agricultural and other policy programs insurance program); investments in insurance Fund development products to reduce the risks of climate-related income loss. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 140 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Biodiversity and Ecosystems Sector Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 1. Enhance 1.1 Align 1.1.1 Develop and L Funding ST Short (1) Biodiversity strategy adopted; No strategies being (1) Biodiversity Strategy developed and MoEW for BD MoEW, MAFF, MRDPW, MES, ecosystem strategic adopt the new programs (that (12.2021) (2) Green infrastructure strategy implemented. adopted; strategy; MTITC, MI, MEx, MEc, MC, governance planning and Biodiversity Strategy is, OP adopted Biodiversity Strategy (2) Green Infrastructure Strategy MRDPW for GI ExEA, EFA, Executive Agency for implementation and Action Plan and Environment) - expired 10 years ago; developed and adopted strategy Fisheries and Aquaculture legislation a new Green if a suitable Green Infrastructure (EAFA); BAS and its institutes Infrastructure modification Strategy has not been related to BD&ES (IBER and FRI) Strategy with regard will be feasible. developed. as well as supporting institutes, to ecosystem-based State budget Pushkarov Institute of Soil management, Science and Agroecology; conservation, support by expert councils; restoration and CCA public consultations with national and regional authorities and their unions; employers', branch, and trade union organizations; academia; NGOs; and general public 1.1.2 Review and L Funding ST Short Provisions for implementation of Provisions only included Provisions enacting ecosystem based MoEW for MoEW, MAFF, MRDPW, MES, amend legislation programs (that (12.2023) ecosystem-based adaptation in line in forestry law; missing in CCA and the activities of the current environment and MTITC, MI, MEx, MEc, MC, and secondary is, OP with new Biodiversity and Green all other sectors strategy harmonized across sectors and biodiversity (incl. ExEA, EFA, EAFA; BAS and its legislation in the Environment) - Infrastructure Strategies included in included in all relevant laws and sub- environmental institutes related to BD&ES environment sector if a suitable relevant legislation legislation, in particular policies related assessments); (IBER, FRI) as well as supporting and related sectors modification to provisioning services—agriculture, MAFF for all institutes; Pushkarov Institute to reflect the new will be feasible. forestry, fisheries, urban and territorial provisioning of Soil Science and Agroecology; Biodiversity Strategy State budget planning, water, air, soils, pollution services in support by expert councils; and Green management agricultural, public consultations with Infrastructure forestry, and national and regional Strategy fisheries authorities and their unions; legislation; employers', branch and trade MRDPW for union organizations; academia; territorial NGOs; and general public planning, including urban and green infrastructure 1.1.3 Link decision L State budget ST Short (1) Ecosystem mapping and Only provisions for Reporting by relevant EU-level and Managing CoM, managing authorities, making, resource, (12.2020) assessment, monitoring, self- management plans of national ecosystem-based indicators authorities / including relevant stakeholders, and funding to monitoring, EIA, and other available protected areas, green included in each funding program national partner BAS and its institutes related to efficient assessment data is taken into account in all revised infrastructure and eco- authorities per BD&ES (IBER, FRI) of improved CCA strategies both at national and agriculture. program ecosystem condition regional/local levels No ecologically relevant (2) All funding instruments for the indicators. program periods beyond 2020 to include clearly measurable, ecologically sound objectives and indicators for ecosystem conservation/ restoration, monitoring and management, and the requirement during the eligibility check that eligible projects are to contribute toward the ecosystem-based adaptation in the adaptation strategies at the national, regional, or local levels --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 141 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 1.1.4 Operationalize M Post-2020 MT Medium (1) National System for Environmental Monitoring of ecosystem NSEM has the necessary internal links ExEA MoEW, MAFF, MRDPW, MES, ecosystem-based funding (12.2025) Monitoring (NSEM) is internally elements rather than between single databases, operational MTITC, MI, NSI, EFA, EAFA, BAS monitoring and programs; integrated to use all ecosystem-related systems as a whole; standards and data processing and and its institutes related to strategic/environme State budget for abiotic and biotic data and assessment Assessments and self- storage pipeline, and is interoperable BD&ES (IBER, FRI) as well as nt impact co-financing data available at ExEA and other monitoring are not easily with national data sources (institutional supporting institutes, Pushkarov assessment and activities national data providers available and and private/voluntary) as well as EU- Institute of Soil Science and outside the (2) Standards are developed within systematically used for level data sources Agroecology, funding NSEM and published in terms of data gaining knowledge about Copernicus national focal point programs and metadata requirements, collection ecosystems from the methodologies, interoperability, fieldwork and research monitoring indicators, and all other performed to complete methodological aspects them; and (3) NSEM architecture is compatible No regulatory with EU-level Copernicus products requirement for single relevant to climate change, format or interoperability biodiversity/ecosystems, and carbon between monitoring, self- accounts monitoring, and (4) NSEM architecture is extensible to assessment data import/harvest third party data and interfaces for such imports are published for reference 1.2 Adjust 1.2.1 Revisesectoral L State budget MT Short All sector strategies related to Ecosystem-based All sectoral CCA strategies clearly (1) MoEW (1) MAFF, MRDPW, MES, sectoral strategies/legislation and post-2020 (12.2021) ecosystem management (in particular management envisaged distinguish between mitigation and MTITC, MI, MEx, MEc, MC, legislation to to include the funding those related to provisioning services) only in the forestry adaptation measures and aim at ExEA, EFA, EAFA, BAS and its (2) Lead climate provisions of the CCA programs include ecosystem-based adaptation strategy; links to CCA are achieving synergies between them (that institutes related to BD&ES authorities for legislation Strategy options and funding to be additionally is, reforestation for carbon capture and (IBER, FRI) as well as supporting drafting and elaborated the use of regulating, cultural, some institutes, Pushkarov Institute adoption of the measure of provisioning ecosystem of Soil Science and Agroecology, respective sectoral services) support by expert councils, strategy public consultations (2) Partners and stakeholders relevant to the respective strategies 1.2.2 Adjust regional L Post-2020 MT Short (1) Mitigation and adaptation clearly No clear adaptation focus All regional and local strategies clearly Lead authorities Partners and stakeholders and local adaptation funding (12.2023) divided in local and regional strategies in strategies, adaptation, distinguish between mitigation and for drafting and relevant to the respective strategies to the programs; (2) Selection, specification, and cost and mitigation are often adaptation measures, make use of the adoption of the regional/local strategy strategic documents State budget for estimate of adaptation options from confused ‘red line’ and carrying capacity respective and legislation on co-financing among the options in the national concepts, and aim at achieving regional/local BD&ES and activities strategy performed and adopted in the synergies between BD&ES and other strategy outside the regional/local strategies sectors at a regional/local level funding (3) Green carbon sequestration programs included in local and regional strategies 1.3 Link 1.3.1 Create carbon L Eurostat grants, MT Medium (1) Relevant scientific research and No accounts in place; Accounts conformant to SEEA-EEA and NSI ExEA, MoEW, MAFF, MRDPW, emissions environmental other funding (12.2023) policy options adopted considering the preparation grants the EU conventions/best practices are EFA, EAFA, BAS (BD&ES related statistics to new accounts programs, State EU-level strategies and legislative received by NSI implemented in production (that is, institutes - IBER, FRI; economic environmental budget trends initially balanced and updated on a institutes) accounts (2) National carbon accounts set up in regular basis) terms of table composition, data sources and responsible authorities, national specifics --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 142 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 1.3.2 Link carbon L Eurostat grants, LT Long (1) A single carbon account is set up No accounts in place (1) The national geocarbon and NSI ExEA, MoEW, MAFF, MRDPW, emission accounts other funding (12.2025) and disaggregated in geocarbon and biocarbon are accounted for in a EFA, EAFA, BAS (BD&ES related and environmental programs, State biocarbon connected, regular, extensible, and institutes - IBER, FRI; economic accounts budget (2) Institutional framework created for transparent manner institutes) participation in ‘green carbon’ trade if (2) Carbon capture by ecosystems is EU legislation passed to that end accounted for and can be used as source for (project) funding, that is, through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) schemes or other emission cutting subsidies 2. Enhance 2.1 Open and 2.1.1 M Funding ST Short (1) All competent authorities have Limited interoperability, NSEM has the necessary external links ExEA NSI, MoEW, national, local, and knowledge reuse data Operationalizing programs (that (12.2023) created information interfaces to some pilots on linking to the national- and EU-level databases: regional data administrators management, ecosystem data is, OP- NSEM ensuring continuous, data between the NSEM Automated data exchange in place with collecting data on environment, education and interoperability Environment) - automated, real-time, or frequent and other authorities MAFF, MRDPW, EFA, EAFR, Basin MTITC, Copernicus and Horizon stakeholder between authorities if a suitable (daily/weekly/monthly) information (such as EFA, Basin Directorates, RIEW, Agriculture fond, 2020 national focal points, communication and other actors modification exchange Directorates through Cadaster, local and municipal business associations, NGOs for adaptation will be feasible. (2) Existing tools for volunteer water permitting and use information systems; State budget submission at NSEM and the use of EIA, information system, IBER- Public interface used by all publicly strategic assessment and self- BAS for the ESENIAS funded projects and at least 10% of the monitoring data are operational, and a invasive species private and volunteer data providers; review mechanism is established for database); Interoperability between NSEM and NSI assessing and entering Public interface to NSEM for exchanging reporting data; and volunteer/assessment/self-monitoring and mobile applications in data into the system place but will need Open publishing of datasets by NSEM (3) NSEM has established data update and regular exchange with the National Statistical procedures; Institute on the reporting with regard No connection to NSI with to Natural Capital Accounting regard to Natural Capital (4) Local and regional authorities and Accounting since no stakeholders are provided with easy accounts are in place yet; and user-friendly means to submit data and and combine their data with national- No interfaces for level datasets regional/local authorities and business stakeholders 2.1.2 Open data for M Post-2020 ST to MT (1) Short (1) Agreements pursuant to Article 4, (1) No specific Legal, organizational, and financial MoTITC MoEW, MAFF, MRDPW, ExEA, public use funding (12.2020); paragraph 4 of the Spatial Data Access organization on signing obstacles for the open access to publicly EFA, EAFA, BAS (climate and BD programs (2) Short Act are signed and implemented agreements as per SDA, (EU/other donors and budget) funded related institutes - NIMH, IO, State budget for (12.2023); between all national, regional, and NSEM has no regulated data are removed. IBER, FRI), academia and NGO - co-financing local data provider authorities creating access to all relevant data Marketplaces are created for the use of beneficiaries of public funds, (3) Short and activities and maintaining data relevant to (2) No provisions for use privately produced and held data business, volunteer citizens (12.2021); outside the ecosystem management, strategic of private data for Specific activities (1) to (5) are fully (4) Medium assessments, self-monitoring and EIA; funding ecosystem implemented (12.2026); data is also submitted to NSEM programs monitoring/management (5) Medium pursuant to these agreements. purposes other than the (12.2027) (2) Provisions are enacted for the general provisions for conditions for use of private data (self- statistical data monitoring, EIA, and so on) in (3) Existing legislation is assessments in terms of privacy, circumvented when remuneration, business confidentiality, charges are collected for and so on. "processing" the data (3) Existing legislation on free-of- provided free of charge charge data provision by public (4) Not all publicly funded authorities is enforced efficiently projects contain --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 143 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) (4) Derivative data products from EU provisions for open and and budgetary funded projects are free of charge publishing provided openly and free of charge of derivative results (5) Data is interoperable and shared in (5) Published data is not a manner allowing automated always suitable for download and processing automated processing (that is, registries containing PDF and MS Word/Excel documents instead of georeferenced data or databases exposed through web services) 2.2 Improve 2.2.1 M Post-2020 MT (1) Short (1) Legal and administrative provisions (1) Legal and Legal and operational guarantees that (1), (2) MoEW Stakeholders to the respective communication Communication and funding (12.2021); are made to ensure that all mandatory administrative provisions discussions involving trade-offs (3) Authorities assessment/ study/ and tools for informed programs (2) Medium studies related to ecosystems on mandatory studies potentially harmful to BD&ES on all responsible for the management plan as per the understanding of prioritization of State budget for (12.2025); (including EIA, strategic assessments, exist but are insufficiently policy levels are informed and respective relevant legal framework ecosystem research and co-financing management plans for species, ES&CCA oriented and in scientifically underpinned with regards assessment/ (3) Short processes and practical action and activities habitats, protected areas, and so on) some cases vaguely to possible declines in climate change study/ (12.2023) climate change outside the assess short- and long-term impact on formulated (for example vulnerability, loss of regulating management plan, as pressure funding ecosystem condition—including critical carrying capacity is ecosystem services and societal costs and so on programs natural capital, red lines and carrying required to be estimated capacity—and ecosystem services with but no definition is given) special attention to CCA (2) No requirement is (2) All mandatory studies related to made for the mandatory ecosystems (including EIA, strategic inclusion of ecosystem- assessments, management plans for based scenarios species, habitats, protected areas, CBA (3) Public consultations for obtaining EU funding, and so on) and discussions often lack contain assessment of the climate objective information and projections and at least one end up as controversy on ecosystem-based adaptation scenario trade-offs calculated in terms of business plan for adaptation related activities (3) Stakeholder scenario discussions and public consultations to contain discussion on scientific findings in the reports being discussed and/or from other sources (for example, produced through Activity 2.2.3) about the impact of proposed activities on the ecosystem condition and services. The adoption of scenarios to be documented in the proceedings when such discussions and consultations have legal consequences. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 144 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 2.2.2 M High technology MT (1) Short (1) Scientific center(s) integrating CCA No specific calls for CCA, (1) At least one call for proposals per (1) Managing (1) Academia, NGO, business Interdisciplinary funding from (12.2023) and ecosystem research and modelling BD, or ES related relevant program opened and selection authorities of organizations teams and centers of post-2020 (2) Medium to be funded at national/regional level research; concluded for national/regional centers post-2020 (2) National focal points of EU- excellence funding (12.2025) - calls for proposals launched and Enterprise funding and of excellence focusing on assessing the programs level schemes, academia, NGO, programs, assessed venture capital available CCA and BD&ES relating modelling, the (2) Business business organizations including on (2) Funding programs/calls are planned for climate change action extent and condition of critical natural support/start-up digital and performed, encouraging but not specifically capital and production of ecosystem support/venture economy; entrepreneurs (including Small and targeting ecosystem- services under combined CCA and other capital State budget for Medium Enterprises [SME]) and start- based adaptation pressures, ecosystem indicators, organizations co-financing ups to tackle the scientific aspects of monitoring techniques and and activities ecosystem-based climate change technologies, carrying capacity in outside the adaptation in cooperation with the different CCA and BD&ES scenarios, funding national/regional centers of excellence long-term, and tipping points research programs (2) Enterprise funding schemes re- focused to include BD&ES related CCA measures as defined in this strategy (in support of Operational objectives 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 3.1, 4.1) and at least one call for funding launched for such start- ups/existing enterprises 2.2.3 Participative M Post-2020 ST Short (1) Post-2020 funding programs EU-level funding is used Climate research for policy purposes (1) CoM (1) MoEW, Managing/partner science: Encourage funding (12.2023) address societal challenges related to for corporate and venture institutionalized: (2) Managing/ authorities and national focal topical programs; CCA in BD&ES on the fundamental, capital projects (1) Societal challenges included in the partner authorities points of post-2020 funding multidisciplinary State budget for applied and policy support levels. programming and funds allocation and national focal programs, Monitoring research contests co-financing Multiannual working plans and agenda of post-2020 programs and points of post- Committees and stakeholders and activities thematic calls for proposals developed demarcation of responsibilities/funding 2020 funding per program outside the to that end. covers all objectives in this strategy programs (2) CoM, MoEW, Monitoring funding (2) Research contests launched and (2) At least one topical research contest Committees, and stakeholders programs projects selected on producing open in support of operational objectives 3.1 per program access projections by combining and 4.1 launched targeting centers of national data with EU level VHR and excellence and enterprises potentially also daily satellite imagery, as well as derived Copernicus products form BD&ES and the Climate service domains for supporting ecosystem monitoring and red line modelling (that is, national data with Copernicus sensor and radar data and services: imperviousness, fragmentation, phenology, wetness, grasslands and other biodiversity products; atmospheric CO2, Surface air temperature, Seasonal forecast and sectoral climate change products) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 145 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 2.3 Restore, 2.3.1 Targeted L Environmental ST (1) Short (1) An open library of ecologically Traditional practices are (1) At least one call for proposals with (1) Managing (1) Monitoring committees and enhance, and collection of folk economic (12.2023); sustainable traditional practices is put collected on a project selected projects that have the authorities/Nation stakeholder per program; use local customs and instruments/ (2) Medium in place within NSEM and available as basis and follow-up is obligation to submit their results to al partner consultation by scientific biodiversity traditional state aid; (12.2025) best practice guide for voluntary missing NSEM authorities/nation committees knowledge knowledge Post-2020 standards and set of case studies for (2) A scheme developed and agreed on al focal points of (2) National, regional, and local funding informed decision making between owners funding programs authorities, ecological NGOs, programs; (2) A national voluntary labeling (2) Business academia, general public State budget for scheme for traditional ecosystem- associations co-financing based management and adaptation is and activities developed and adopted by owners of outside the most endangered ecosystems (forest, funding cropland/grassland, urban, popular programs tourism destinations, possibly fishery) 2.3.2 Import foreign L Corporate MT (1) Short (1) Provisions are enacted, and funding No obligations for pre- (1) At least one state aid/post-2020 (1) Managing/ (1) MoEW, ExEA, monitoring knowledge funding and (12.2023); is made available to support voluntary import testing of alien funding call for getting information from partner authorities committees and stakeholder environmental (2) Medium schemes of alien species importers species. Some pets and foreign researchers and assessing the and national focal per program; consultation by economic (12.2025) who commission scientific testing of plants being imported are impacts of commercially interesting points of post- scientific committees and instruments/ their imports in isolated nurseries and invasive or potentially invasive/potentially invasive species. 2020 funding business associations state aid; publish the results, in particular invasive, but consumers The call(s) to concentrate on species programs (2) ExEA, MoEW, other national, Post-2020 warnings, with their imports are not being informed with high risk assessment, including (2) Importer and regional, and local authorities, funding (2) Peer reviewed search results are about this. pathways of introduction, patterns of trade associations ecologic NGOs, academia, programs; added to the IAS module within NSEM spreading and impact on host of companies general public and freely shared to stakeholders (that ecosystems in different regions of the trading in animals State budget for is, the EASIN and ESENIAS networks, country. Top 10% of the highest risk and plants co-financing and so on) commercially interesting species to be and activities covered by selected projects. outside the funding (2) A corporate scheme for IAS data programs exchange with NSEM and sending news to participating companies is established and functioning and datasheets prepared for each assessed species are submitted for publishing. Members have received all datasheets submitted to NSEM and publish on their websites/inform customers on the perils of releasing species in the wild. 2.4 Maximize the 2.4.1 Promote L Post-2020 ST Short (1) Volunteer training projects re- Predominant species and (1) At least one call for proposals in post- Managing/ partner ExEA, MoEW, monitoring use of citizen ecosystem thinking funding (12.2023) focused from species to ecosystems small-scale action 2020 programs targeting volunteer authorities and committees and stakeholders of science among volunteers programs; (2) Sharing volunteer data to NSEM is projects; training on ecosystem level activities. national focal relevant programs State budget for encouraged in all post-2020 funding Single ecosystem-based Selected projects to cover areas where points of post- co-financing programs pilots mostly focus on at least 80% of the vulnerable 2020 funding and activities some services and do not population lives programs outside the include the full ecosystem (2) All calls for proposals related to funding assessment; ecosystem data collection have the programs Management obligation for submitting ecosystem plan/conservation data to NSEM. funding projects are not explicitly focused on ecosystem-based management --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 146 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 2.4.2 Enable L Post-2020 ST Short NSEM has the IT and organizational Existing public interface Information technology infrastructure ExEA MoEW, managing volunteer sharing funding (12.2023) capacity to accept and process and smartphone apps but updated. NSEM has the necessary authorities/national partner programs; scientific, volunteer, self-monitoring, no streamlined process capacity and organization in place to authorities/national State budget for and EIA data as part of environmental for assessment and collect data on a regular basis and assess coordinators; program co-financing monitoring registration of data it before admitting into the information monitoring committees and and activities system. stakeholders per program outside the funding programs 2.5 Educate for 2.1.5 Implement new L Post-2020 ST Short (1) School programs on ecosystem No dedicated ecosystem All aspects of ecosystem knowledge, (1) MES Public, business and civic ecosystem training programs at funding (12.2023) awareness and specialized interest management/ecosystem awareness, management, monitoring (2) Universities organizations—beneficiaries of thinking all educational levels programs; classes on ecosystem functioning service related programs and use of ecosystem services (including and research the trainings; parents' and in informal/non- State budget; implemented from grade 2 onwards ecosystem restoration for CCA) are organizations associations, civil society formal education (2) University programs on ecosystem covered by appropriate parts of the organizations, other corporate (3) National management implemented education system stakeholders relevant to the funding from Agency for respective education path stakeholder (3) Restoration related vocational Vocational businesses training program standards in place Education and Training 2.5.2 Create L Post-2020 ST Short (1) The Institute of Public No specialized courses (1) At least one course level (1) IPA Managing authorities, national specialized funding (12.2020) Administration (IPA) has included available to (introductory/ advanced) provided by (2) Private partner authorities, national education courses program; relevant courses in its catalogue and administration IPA on: providers focal points for administrations State budget; launched competitions for producing (a) Introduction to ecosystem responsible for the learning content and conducting services and their impact for CCA corporate implementing CCA the courses (b) DPSIR framework, indicators for funding from and BD legislation (2) Private providers offer relevant ecosystem policies, management stakeholder businesses courses for administration and monitoring (c) Red line/critical natural capital, carrying capacity (d) Integrated assessment (e) Ecosystem restoration and green infrastructure (2) Funding set aside by managing authorities for attending the courses from (1) or courses on the same topics provided by private providers 2.5.3 Develop skills L Technical aid/ ST Short (1) Representatives of scientific and(1) No specific and (1) At least one project funded on (1) National and Academia, media, regional and for ecosystem program (12.2020) policy-making organizations have systematic efforts for development of tools as per Action 1) post-2020 funding local authorities, NGO communication and management developed simple visualization communicating (2) At least one workshop annually for program(s) awareness raising funds of 2017– tools/info graphs, best practice and ecosystem services media representatives starting with the responsible for 2020 and post- policy guides, databases, and so on for (2) Single publications in 2020 year funded by post-2020 applied R&D, as 2020 programs; presenting the ecosystem related media with track record in programs as part of their publicity assigned during specialized calls problematic in climate change following eco-related efforts and leading to scientifically programming such as LIFE adaptation issues, insufficient in sound publications in national media (2) Managing communication; (2) Media representatives trained in number and frequency for and regional/specialized media covering authorities/ state budget understanding and communicating raising the public at least 80% of the vulnerable National partner ecosystem related issues in a simple awareness for the population authorities/nation but correct manner to the public problems caused by loss al focal points of of biodiversity under funding programs climate change --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 147 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 3. Create space 3.1 Reclaim 3.1.1 Regional/local M to H Post-2020 Preferred (1) Short (1) ‘Red line’ assessments are No specific studies of (1) At least one call for proposals (1), (2) Managing (1), (2) Monitoring committees for Biodiversity space from grey ‘red lines’ to prevent funding ST, (12.2023) commissioned to cover at least 80% of critical natural capital and launched by December 2023 with authorities/ and relevant stakeholders per and Ecosystems infrastructure loss of ecosystem programs probably (2) Medium the population in the most climate ecosystem project selection covering the 80% National partner funding program; consultation and create services vital for CCA State budget realistic (12.2025) vulnerable areas to define the production/provision target authorities/ by scientific committees refugia, reduce MT ecosystems providing vital ecosystem (2) At least one call for proposals national focal (3) Academia, national data (3) Medium fragmentation services for that population launched by December 2025 with points of funding producers and holders, regional (12.2027) (2) ‘Red line’ assessment for the project selection covering the remaining programs and local authorities, business remaining areas in the country are territory (3) ExEA and civic organizations, NGOs, commissioned (3) NSEM has received derivative "wall- general public (3) ‘Wall-to-wall’ ecosystem service to-wall" datasets for the scenarios and production scenarios for different projections and they are available free climate change and different levels of of charge to regional, local authorities, other pressures (including ecosystem researchers and the general public services flows beyond the national borders) are created and the corresponding ‘red lines are defined 3.1.2 Regional/local M to H Post-2020 Preferred (1) Medium (1) Regional conservation and No conservation/ (1) By 2025, call(s) for proposals are Managing MoEW, ExEA, regional and local BD conservation and funding ST, (12.2025) restoration programs based on the restoration programs conducted, projects on regional/local authorities/ authorities; restoration programs programs, probably 2) Medium defined ‘red lines’ adopted for the target ecosystem level red line assessments covering the 80% National partner monitoring committees, local to boost delivery of State budget realistic (12.2027) regions where climate change related conservation/ restoration target are selected and implementation authorities/ interest groups, relevant ecosystem services MT services are produced and adopted for based on critical natural has started national focal stakeholders per funding corporate at least 80% of the population capital (2) By 2027, call(s) for proposals are points of funding program, academia; funding from (2) Regional conservation and conducted, projects on regional/local programs stakeholder consultation by scientific businesses restoration programs based on the red line assessments covering the entire committees defined ‘red lines’ adopted for the country are selected and regions where climate change related implementation has started services are produced on the remaining territory 4. Sustainable 4.1 Sustainable 4.1.1 Sustainable use H Corporate LT Medium (1) Legal framework set up and No specific use of local (1) Sectoral legislation, in line with Business support/ Gene-bank in Sadovo, MoEW, use of regulating use of ecosystem of genetic resources funding (12.2025) environmental state aid/funding from genetic resources is made Nagoya Protocol, to address the rights venture capital regional and local authorities; and cultural services for resilience (including post-2020 programs made available for for climate change of access of farmers to genetic funds monitoring committees, local ecosystem venture capital); R&D on climate resilient production of resilience and sustainable resources and support economic Managing interest groups, relevant services for economic provisioning services using local agricultural practices instruments/state aid for their use in authorities/ stakeholders per funding adaptation instruments and genetic resources CCA and food security in the areas of National partner program, academia; environmental (2) Improved climate resilience of at agriculture (including urban farming), authorities/nation consultation by scientific state aid funded least 50% of all managed ecosystems forestry, fisheries, and aquaculture al focal points of committees by post-2020 (agriculture, fishery, forestry, urban) in (2) Enterprise support schemes have funding programs programs and the most vulnerable territories by using been set up and selected State budget genetic resources for boosting enterprises/projects for funding to biodiversity and introducing new sorts, achieve climate resilience on at least breeds, growing practices 50% of the most vulnerable managed ecosystems in Bulgaria 4.1.2 Cultural M Corporate and MT 1) Short (1) Awareness of cultural ecosystem No specific awareness (1) All recreation professionals in the (1) MT, Branch associations, ecosystem services SME support (12.2021) services is common among recreation efforts and no corporate CCA vulnerable areas where 80% of the Branch regional and local authorities, for recreation and funding 2) Medium professionals labeling schemes population resides are aware of the associations research organizations engaging education (including (12.2025) (2) The protection and nourishing of potential loss of cultural ecosystem in cultural ecosystem research, venture capital); landscapes and ecosystems providing services: information published online volunteers/NGO economic cultural ecosystem services is part of and sent by subscription annually or (2) MT, regional and local instruments and the corporate culture, subject to quarterly, early warnings on tipping authorities, research environmental volunteer labeling scheme(s) points pushed out immediately organizations engaging in state aid funded (2) At least 50% of tourism enterprises cultural ecosystem research, by post-2020 in CCA vulnerable areas participate in volunteers/NGO programs and volunteer labeling scheme(s) State budget --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 148 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators* Responsible Institutions** Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 4.1.3 Ecosystem H Project funding LT 1) Medium (1) Ecosystem restoration targets set Minimal number of small 20% of degraded ecosystems restored MRDPW MoEW, district governments, restoration – a long from post-2020 (12.2025) and adopted on national and regional projects by 2030 municipalities, local interest term business programs, 2) Medium level benefiting at least 80% of the groups, national/local business opportunity economic (12.2027) population, considering the identified associations, companies, NGO instruments and red lines and overexploitation above and citizen organizations 3) Medium environmental carrying capacity (12.2027) state aid funded (2) Ecosystem restoration targets set by post-2020 and adopted on national and regional programs and level on the entire territory of the State budget; country local budgets; (3) Long-term restoration projects are corporate and selected and started their activities in SME-support the most climate vulnerable locations funding where at least 80% of the population lives 4.1.4 Local L Economic MT 1) Medium (1) Population employed in restoration (1) Minimal employment (a) Targets as per activities 1) and 2) are (1) MoEW (1) MRDPW, MoEW, district development and instruments and (12.2028) and "green industry" projects aimed at and figures not known set up, measurable and accountable, (2) MLSP governments, municipalities, equitable access to environmental 2) Long the use of ecosystem services comprise since no specific targets with responsibilities and actions local interest groups, ecosystem services state aid funded (12.2030) at least 5% of the employment in the have been set so far for assigned national/local business by post-2020 most climate vulnerable regions employment in (b) Implementation of activities on track associations, companies, NGO programs and (2) Restoration projects that were restoration projects and and monitoring for the overall and citizen organizations State budget; commissioned, funded and launched "green industry" achievement of 80% targets (2) Managing authorities/ local budgets; are expected to benefit at least 80% of (2) No attention has been coordinated on a national level National partner authorities/ corporate, SME- vulnerable population paid so far on vulnerable focal points for funding support and population's benefits programs, district governments, social support/ from green infrastructure, municipalities, local interest human capital restoration and green groups, national/local business formation projects; information is associations, companies, NGO funding not accessible since no and citizen organizations consequent statistics on the expected impact of ongoing restoration projects on the provision of ecosystem services to vulnerable local population Notes: *All targets are drawn up to the best of abilities in the absence of a strategic framework for BD&ES but may need specification/quantification together with stakeholders. ** All responsible institutions and partners are drawn up to the best of abilities in the absence of a strategic framework for BD&ES but may need additions/corrections together with stakeholders. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 149 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Energy Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Objective Objective Adaptation Options (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) (source) mln. Euro) 1. Build 1.1 Build 1.1.1 Undertake a review of existing L Structural funds; ST Short Identify knowledge gaps on CCA in the n.a. Awareness raising plan with list of MEn EWRC, energy institutional institutional levels of awareness of climate change state budget sector actions companies capacity, capacity and adaptation within the MEn, regulator and knowledge and knowledge wider energy sector decision use of data for networks makers/operators adaptation 1.1.2 Provide training to the MEn, 0.55 Structural funds; ST Short Increase expertise and management skills of Number of trainings; Number of trainings; MEn EWRC, energy regulator and wider energy sector decision state budget staff on CCA Number of experts Number of experts companies makers/operators on climate change adaptation, including information on best practice for energy sector climate resilience from other countries 1.2 Translate 1.2.1 Meetings with NIMH to define L State budget ST Short Centralized agreement for provision of No Centralized agreement - 1 MEn, NIMH Energy monitoring, needs for climate services and centralized climate services specific to the energy sector companies forecasting, and agreement for provision of climate services needs weather data for from the NIMH the energy sector 2. Mainstream 2.1 Mainstream 2.1.1 Undertake an inventory of L State budget ST Short Better governance and coordination of No of developed/ No of developed ordinances, MEn, MRDPW All other climate change climate change strategies, policies, plans, standards, site adaptation actions in the energy sector in updated ordinances, regulations, instructions, orders, ministries considerations considerations selection, energy infrastructure design Bulgaria regulations, decrees, and so on into energy within energy norms and so on to identify those where instructions, orders, sector policies, sector policies climate resilience should be incorporated decrees, and so on plans and and plans 2.1.2 When the new Energy Strategy is L State budget ST Short CCA priority measures included in the n.a. Energy Strategy after 2020 MEn Energy financial developed, ensure climate resilience is Sustainable Energy Development Strategy of companies mechanisms mainstreamed into it Bulgaria 2020 -2030 2.1.3 Mainstream climate resilience L State budget ST Short Improved investment plans taking CCA into Number of updated investment plans into energy sector investment plans, by account defining climate risks in terms of probability and consequence 2.1.4 Incorporate seasonal climate L State budget ST Short Improved accuracy of power demand Developed mechanism for power Transmission MEn, energy forecasts and long-term climate change forecasts and supply/demand balance demand forecasts taking into account System companies projections into seasonal and long-term seasonal climate forecasts and long- Operators (TSOs), power demand forecasts (Electricity System term climate change projections NIMH Operator and MEn) 2.1.5 Incorporate climate resilience and L State budget ST Short Improved resilience of supporting n.a Number of contingency plans MEn, Ministry of Municipalities, improved contingency planning into the infrastructure reviewed and amended Interior, energy RIA management of infrastructure that companies supports the energy sector (for example dykes and access roads for NPP) 2.2 Develop 2.2.1 Review existing mechanisms for 0.35 State budget ST Short Analysis of potential mechanisms for n.a. Number of identified mechanisms for MEn Energy financial financial protection in other countries and financial protection in financial protection in Bulgaria companies, mechanisms to evaluate the potential for implementation Financial build resilience in the energy sector in Bulgaria institutions 3. Incorporate 3.1 Incorporate 3.1.1 Climate resilience is integrated L State budget ST Short Better water resource management related n.a. Number of water resources MoEW MEn, National climate climate into water resources management and to the operation of large HPPs management plans of large dams Electricity resilience into resilience into associated decisions affecting the operation considering CCA Company (NEK) design and design and of large HPPs engineering engineering 3.1.2 Incorporating climate resilience L Own budget ST Short Cost-effective climate resilient design of n.a. Number of CBAs Energy (power plants into design of new power plants new power plants companies and mines) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 151 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Objective Objective Adaptation Options (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) (source) mln. Euro) 3.2 Incorporate 3.2.1 Develop maps showing climate 2.50 State budget ST Short Informed decision making in the T&D n.a. Number of maps with climate risk NIMH, Men, MES TSO, climate risk zones for climatic parameters relevant infrastructure management zones for T&D distribution resilience into to T&D infrastructure, to inform decisions companies design and about parts of the T&D networks that engineering require climate resilience actions (T&D 3.2.2 Continue to monitor causes of L Own budget ST Short Informed decision-making in the T&D Database of causes of Database of causes of interruptions to TSO, distribution infrastructure) interruptions to the T&D system and to infrastructure management interruptions to the the T&D system in all distribution companies classify climate/weather-related causes, to T&D system in a few companies understand weather hazards that lead to distribution most outages and to identify any trends in companies their frequency 3.2.3 Undertake CBA to evaluate 0.70 Own budget ST Short Identify cost-effective investments in n.a. CBA TSO, distribution whether additional sections of the electricity distribution network for building companies distribution system should be changed to climate resilience underground cables, considering changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events and consequent damages to the network 4. Increase 4.1 Diversify 4.1.1 Continue to develop regional 188.20 Equity, loans, EU ST, MT Long Improved security of supply of energy Number of new/ modernized TSO MEn, BEH resilience of supply to interconnections and regional electricity funds interconnectors energy supply increase overall trading energy system 4.1.2 Review opportunities for L Own budget; ST Short Improved security of supply of energy Number of assessed district heating District heating MEn, EWRC resilience improved district heating systems to loans; private systems companies contribute to meeting winter and summer investment energy demand. Diversify supply, including regional energy trade, district heating/ cooling, gasification of households, and small-scale renewables to increase overall energy system resilience 4.1.3 Financial support for gasification 774.00 Structural funds; ST, MT Short Increased gas consumption; improved % connected % connected households MEn of households to contribute to meeting EBRD credit lines supply/demand balance households % increase in gas consumption winter energy demand (targeting Energy % increase in gas Efficiency and consumption RES); Kozloduy fund; private investment of citizens and businesses 4.2 Improve 4.2.1 Provide incentives for energy L State budget ST Short Expanding the energy traders' activities in Number of ESCO Number of developed stimuli for Sustainable Energy energy efficiency suppliers to become Energy Service the field of energy savings to end customers; companies energy suppliers to become ESCO Energy companies in buildings and Companies (ESCOs) Improved customer satisfaction Development industry systems Agency (SEDA) 4.2.2 Provide assistance to obliged L Structural funds; ST Short Accurate calculation of energy savings in the Methodologies for evaluation of SEDA Energy persons to initiate the development of state budget industry sectors energy savings companies, methodologies for evaluation of energy Energy savings that demonstrate the fulfilment of consumers individual energy saving targets, especially in the case of energy savings used in the industry sectors 4.2.3 Advance efforts to motivate end 760.00 Structural funds; ST; MT Short, Improvement in energy characteristics of Number of - No. of implemented energy SEDA End users users of energy to implement energy saving Green medium buildings; implemented energy efficiency measures; measures (households and industry) Investment efficiency measures - energy savings in GWh Scheme; ESCO --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 152 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Objective Objective Adaptation Options (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) (source) mln. Euro) contracts; energy Implementation of standards for - decrease in energy intensity efficiency funds; sustainable buildings and energy state budget management. 4.2.4 Harmonize the process of L State budget ST Short Effective price regulation and EE policy Updated methodologies for price EWRC, SEDA, regulating the prices of electricity, heat and regulation taking into account EE МЕn natural gas with the policy of improving the energy efficiency in the country 4.2.5 Raise the awareness of energy L State budget ST Short Improved implementation of the obligations No of awareness raising events; SEDA traders with regard to their obligations under the Energy Efficiency Act No of explanatory materials produced under the Energy Efficiency Act and the possibilities for their implementation 4.2.6 Work with stakeholders in the L State budget ST Short Improved energy and water efficiency; No of identified measures to improve MEn, MoEW Energy water sector to explore links between water Reduced water-related energy costs water and energy efficiency; companies, efficiency (that is, losses from the system) No of applied measures companies in and energy efficiency the water sector --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 153 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Forestry Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 1.Enhance 1.1 Build 1.1.1 Initiate and implement M State ST Short to long Knowledge base for Research program started, activities on Produced research output and EFA UF; FRI knowledge base capacity for Research program to support budget(EFA); (Starting successful CCA available most important research topics started practical guidelines and and awareness research, climate change adaptation of forests additional soon, but with projects products, which serve climate for climate education and from EU adequate if it change adaptation actions change extension sources lasts more adaptation than 5 years) 1.1.2 Create a National Forestry M State budget ST Medium to Continuous transfer of (1) National extension service created; (1) 2000 educated specialists in EFA + close State forest enterprises; Extension Service and a system for (EFA): long knowledge to leading forest (2) Program for education actions at least 5 thematic events in 5- partner UF private forest dissemination of results practitioners at management accepted; year period; enterprises; forest level of forest enterprises enterprises, belonging to (3) Secured funding for the operation of (2) Extension service operating (several thousand specialists) at regular basis municipalities; NGOs the Service; 1.1.3 Build capacity in L State budget; ST Short Higher capacity to cope with (1) Training program established with (1) Number of executed EFA + close Different owners of government organizations, forest EU funding the challenges of CCA; better number of planned events on different training events and trained partner UF forests and stakeholders: management structures and private coordination between topics; people; associations of private companies, university and higher institutions and stakeholders (2) Number of trained people; (2) Number of published and owners, municipalities, education staff distributed information NGOs; owners of (3) Number of public events and activities brochures and guidelines; companies in wood (that is, printed brochures, information processing and furniture campaigns, and so on) to popularize CCA (3) Number of public events industries; in Forestry Sector and reached audience (measurable for media campaigns such as television broadcast, internet broadcast, and so on). 1.2 Develop 1.2.1 Model the potential M State budget; ST Short (1) Availability of modern Spatially-explicit models created, verified Running web-based GIS model EFA; UF; FRI; MoEW; international research to performance of the most important EU funding models for productivity and with in-situ experimental data portal, which allows quick use NIMH research institutions support tree species currently, and those growth of targeted tree of data from the growth with high experience in adaptation species which may have potential in species linked to climate models dynamic modelling of Bulgaria in a future changed climate, parameters, soil parameters forest ecosystems over the entire territory of the and other parameters; country and under different climate (2) Availability of modern change scenarios and different models for growth and inter- timescales and accounting for species relations (that is, various topographical parameters forest dynamics) of targeted tree species and forest ecosystems linked to climate parameters, soil parameters and other parameters and linked to climate change scenarios output --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 155 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 1.2.2 Continue the scientific M State budget; ST Short to long (1) Accumulated better (1) Program for studies of species and (1) Available experimental plots EFA UF; FRI; MoEW study of genotype variability and EU funding (Starting knowledge on the best genotypes accepted and study projects suitability for various climate soon, but performing genotypes, which (2) Program ongoing (2) Available database with conditions for the most important, adequate if it enables adequate production results from experimental work endangered and highly vulnerable lasts more of seedling material for with origins from different tree species and conduct research than 5–10 various plantation activities; species at various climate on production of reproductive years) (2) Accumulated knowledge conditions and production of materials from them on production of reproductive reproductive materials from material from different them species, including rare and (3) Available printed endangered guidebooks 1.2.3 Develop spatially explicit L State budget; ST Short, but Available modern and (1) Program for studies accepted Available GIS-based models for EFA MAFF, MoEW risk models for disturbances such as EU funding with dynamic GIS-based models for (2) GIS-based models produced and risk of various disturbances windthrow, fire, insect and disease continuous risks of various disturbances, verification on-going linked to forest, climate and damage monitoring linked to various parameters topography parameters and re- assessment 1.2.4 Research analysis and L State budget; ST Medium Continuously available (1) Running NFI - First round executed, Working system for regular EFA UF; FRI; MAFF assessment of the data from EU funding information for forestry second round in preparation running of NFI and analysis of monitoring of forest ecosystems, resources and the on-going (2) Project for monitoring networks for data effects of climate change, processes in them assessment of climate change adaptation management, adaptation and actions experiments mitigation measures at micro (3) Project for analysis of data from NFI (projects) and macro scales (NFI) going on 1.2.5 Assess the impact of L State budget MT Medium to Timely planning of available (1) Available and on-going Program for (1) Continuous availability of EFA MEc; Branch chamber of changing wood resources on the - MAFF (EFA) long (should resources and preparing the assessment of wood resources and data for the available wood woodworking and processing sector and support long- be wood-processing companies expected resources in the following resources; furniture industry term resilience and value-adding continuous) to adapt decades (2) Available reports and potential (2) Events to disseminate the findings to forecasts for the wood the wood-processing sector resources 1.2.6 Research on additional L State budget ST Short to Available new wood products (1) Program for studies accepted Continuous availability of MEc; Branch UF; private companies in use of wood and forest products to - MAFF (EFA); medium and diverse uses of wood for (2) Studies going on according to contracts between universities, chamber of wood processing and foster and promote diverse uses of National the market accepted program research institutes, and private woodworking furniture industries wood and increase the potential for science fund; wood processing and furniture and furniture (3) Availability of new products and value addition contracts companies industry research contracts between universities, with private research institutions and companies in companies; the wood-processing and furniture EU research industries funding 2. Enhance and 2.1 Build 2.1.1 Enhance the Bulgaria’s M State budget MT* Medium* Efficient system of forest (1) Available long-term program for (1) Available long-term EFA and Seed UF; FRI; Institute of plant protect the resilience in forest nursery capacity and system - MAFF (EFA) (existing long- nurseries and seed bank nurseries and planning of needed program for work of nurseries control genetic resources forest resources regenerating, for seed collection and storage term activity) capable to provide timely the reproductive material and maintenance of seed bank subdivisions "Konstantin Malkov" expanding and needed quantity and quality (2) Available and updated Long-term (2) Available database and strengthening of reproductive materials program for seed bank operation guidebooks summarizing the the forest from desired species and (3) Program for production of experience with production of resource genotypes reproductive material from rare and reproductive materials from endangered forest species accepted various species 2.1.2 Strengthen the existing M State budget MT* Long Availability of resilient forest (1) Continuously update the guidelines Increasing share of pro-actively EFA UF; FRI; forest forest resource through enrichment - MAFF (EFA) resource with high potential for management of plantations at risk managed plantations with aim enterprises planting and pro-active for adaptation to new climate (2) Hectares of pro-actively managed to increase their resilience to management of at-risk plantations conditions plantations at risk expected climate conditions --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 156 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 2.1.3 Rehabilitate forest areas M State budget ST* Continuous, Quick recovery of forest (1) Available guidebooks and expert- (1) High percentage of forests EFA Forest enterprises; highly damaged by natural - MAFF (EFA) long-term resources after disturbances; consultation systems for forest recovery with sufficient natural natural park disturbance or die-back, and activity; New forests with higher operations after disturbances (currently regeneration or artificial administrations; UF; FRI afforestation to improve water and routine resilience to climate change on EU-researchers level there is an effort planting imitating natural soil protection functions operations, challenges; Protection forests to create such platform, Bulgaria could be processes after large-scale that have to with high capacity to improve a local focus point); An example can be mortality due to disturbances be water and soil protection seen at web site (2) High percentage of continuously functions https://www.waldwissen.net/waldwirtsc protection forests which serve improved * haft/schaden/sturm_schnee_eis/fva_stu in good way water and soil rmhandbuch/index_EN; protection functions (2) Hectares of rehabilitated forests (3) Hectares of forests in which operations were carried out to enhance their water and soil protection functions 2.1.4 Maintain and create new M State budget MT* Medium and Stable condition of existing (1) Availability of Spatially-explicit (1) Fulfilment of program for MAFF; EFA Municipalities and forest shelter belts in agriculture - MAFF (EFA); long forest shelter belts, recovery program for the needed Forest shelterbelts owners of agriculture lands EU funds of damaged and creation of Shelter belts and time-frame for their (2) Available database for lands, where forest new forest shelter belts; creation and maintenance forest shelter belts, their state shelter belts are Improved conditions to (2) Legislation changes to secure the and schedule for their beneficial and needed; protect biodiversity of birds, creation and maintenance of Forest maintenance research institutions - animals, insects and reptiles shelter belts UF; FRI; Agricultural in lowlands (3) Secured budget or financial University; Institute of instruments to support the creation soil science, of Forest Shelter belts in Private, agrotechnologies, and communal and state agriculture soil protection "Nikola lands Pushkarov" (4) Kilometers and area of available shelter belts 2.1.5 Establish short-rotation M State budget MT Long Availability of new short- (1) National program for needs of wood Hectares of created plantations MAFF, EFA; Municipalities and biomass plantations - MAFF; EU rotation plantations for wood biomass plantations based on strategy according to strategy for owners of lands funds biomass production; higher for biomass needs and production (point biomass plantations and carbon sequestration for the 3.2.2.) national plan for needs period of use of the plantation (2) Financial instruments to support creation of plantations; 2.1.6 Conduct an assessment of L State budget ST Short (1) More efficient use of (1) Clear legal procedure describing the Hectares of forest in currently EFA; MAFF Municipalities the regulatory framework and - MAFF (EFA) agriculture lands, which are possibility to use temporary agriculture un-used agriculture lands monetary aid arrangements with currently not in active use lands for forest production regard to enabling the use of (2) Higher Carbon agriculture lands for temporary or sequestration by new forests long-term use for forest production (3) Less forest fires initiated in agriculture lands with self- planted forests --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 157 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 2.2 Maintenance 2.2.1 Promote management M State budget ST* Long Higher percentage of forests (1) Updated guidelines for forest Percentage of forest area EFA UF; FRI; Forest of biodiversity, strategies that maximize species, - MAFF (EFA); with higher structural, species management, which clearly provide managed with management enterprises; MoEW; genetic diversity genetic and structural diversity and EU funding and genetic diversity and priority to management systems that strategies maximizing species, and forest limit the spatial extent of therefore higher resilience to maximize diversity at different levels genetic and structural diversity resilience homogenous areas various negative effects (2) Prepared and published information related to climate change. materials which clarify the proper execution of such management systems and benefits from them (3) Establishment of network of demonstration sites in different forest types, which serve also for education activities 2.2.2 Protection of sites of great M State budget ST* Long Preserved biodiversity and (1) Strict government engagement in (1) Working system for EFA, MAFF, Research institutions biodiversity, ‘old forests’ and - MAFF (EFA); genetic variability; higher nature-protection policy ecosystem services evaluation MoEW (UF, FRI, IBER), NGOs spatially aggregated habitat EU funding forest resilience in relation to (2) Public list of old-growth forests, and compensatory payments (biotope) trees unexpected challenges including such outside national parks, (2) Stable list of old-growth related to climate conditions nature parks, NATURA 2000 areas forests and engagement for (3) Financial mechanism for maintenance of their status compensatory payments for protecting old-growth forests, hot-spots of biodiversity, clusters of habitat trees (4) National system for ecosystem services evaluation and compensatory payments 2.2.3 Identify rare species with L State budget ST* Long Protected biodiversity; (1) List of species and habitats at risk, Available guidelines EFA, MAFF, UF; FRI; IBER serious risk of extinction and, - MAFF (EFA); decreased probability of which need additional research for summarizing the available and MoEW together with research and nursery EU funding species loss and degradation regeneration and support gained knowledge specialists, protect their current of key habitats (2) Program for gaining experience with status, but plan for their regeneration of rare species regeneration and potential migration 2.2.4 Implement measures to L State budget ST Long Decreased risk of damages (1) Plan for limiting the risk of invasive Available plan for limiting the EFA Other ministries, limit the potential of invasive - MAFF (EFA); from invasive species species potential of invasive species responsible for species, especially insects and fungi, EU funding (2) System for monitoring the spread of and monitoring system for their transport, urban to enter forest ecosystems invasive species spread planning and constructions; (3) Publishing information materials for municipalities; private invasive species companies working in (4) Number of trainings and public events the field of gardening for invasive species 2.2.5 Participate in the L State budget ST* Long Better possibilities to Active participation in information EFA Universities and research European Information System on - MAFF (EFA); exchange experience and systems for exchange of data and institutes in the field of Forest Genetic Resources EU funding needed seedling material experience on genetic resources genetic resources 2.3 Enhance 2.3.1 Build a National system M State budget ST* Long Decrease the losses from Available national centralized system in EFA MI management of for rapid fire detection and response - MAFF (EFA); forest fires operation forest resources to this and other natural calamities EU funding --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 158 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) (amount) 2.3.2 Build a National system M State budget ST Long Decrease the losses from (1) Create national system (1) Available national EFA UF; Research institutes for long-term disturbance - MAFF (EFA); disturbances by timely (2) Monitor the effectiveness of the centralized system in operation working with remote monitoring EU funding response and advanced pro- system to detect disturbances (2) Available system for analysis sensing; European Earth active management of forests Observation Programme (3) Establishment of Research program of the collected data at risk to make them more COPERNICUS for analysis of collected data and resilient to various updating of forest risk mapping and plans disturbances 2.3.3 Execute a NFI M State budget ST Long Available data on the forestry (1) NFI 1 executed; Available system for rolling EFA Forest enterprises; UF; - MAFF (EFA); resources and on-going (2) NFI 2 in preparation; annual NFI field program and FRI; EU funding processes in forests permanent staffing and (3) Data from NFI in analysis institutionalization. 2.3.4 Integrate existing and M State budget MT Medium Availability of linked Available national centralized Available national centralized EFA novel information systems in - MAFF (EFA); information geo-databases information system for forests in information system for forests modern National Information EU funding operation in operation System for Forest Resources 3. Improving 3.1 Improving 3.1.1 Expand the use of wood L State budget ST Short Higher use of wood as a MRDPW, UF; CAB; CEID; Branch potential for the potential for as a building material construction material Bulgarian chamber of sustainable use long-term use of Institute for woodworking and of forest higher-valued Standardization furniture industry resource wood products 3.1.2 Establish a timber L State budget; ST Short Wider use of high-quality (1) Timber marketing board established Available and working long- MEc Branch chamber of marketing board could be EU wood and products (2) Number of public events to promote term activity program for woodworking and funding for wider use of wood promotion of wood products furniture industry; EFA capacity (3) Prepared leaflets and guidebooks building 3.1.3 Create a wood specifiers L State Budget ST Short Wider use of high-quality (1) Wood specifiers guide published MEc UF; CAB; Branch guide to provide all the required wood (2) Promotional events organized chamber of knowledge needed by technical woodworking and professionals to ease the use of this furniture industry material with confidence 3.1.4 Establish and promote L State budget; ST Short Wider use of high-quality (1) Specifications published and Regular use of wood-based Branch chamber UF; CAB; Branch novel wood-based EU specifications private wood and products distributed constructions in urban of woodworking chamber of amongst municipalities as a pilot, for companies (2) Constructions being done as pilots environment and furniture woodworking and example for the construction of industry furniture industry; (3) Media promotion events for wooden bridges and small buildings municipalities popularizing 3.2 Improving 3.2.1 Implementation and L State budget ST* Medium to Available strategy for forest Adopted "National Action Plan for Forest Implementation and EFA the potential for optimization of the "National Action -EFA long (the biomass needs and Biomass Energy 2018-2027" optimization of the "National sustainable and Plan for Forest Biomass Energy strategy has production Action Plan for Forest Biomass more 2018-2027" to be Energy 2018-2027" environmentally- implemented friendly use of and working) wood biomass for production of energy --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 159 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Human Health Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Strategic Operational Budget Budget Activities Priority Duration Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (amount) (source) 1. Enhance 1.1 Strengthen 1.1.1 Actualization of legislation, L State budget ST Long Clarity on deficiencies in regulatory Regulatory documents - examined, deficits MH Ministry of Justice, Governance for policy, legal and regulations, standards, codes, plans, policy, documents, and preparedness to identified, prescriptions made. MoEW, MAFF, MLSP, Adaptation institutional programs and all other documents relevant to cover climate change in regulatory MRDPW, MES, MI, framework CCHH documents for human health MFA, MT, NCPHA, RHI, BAS 1.2 Build 1.2.1 Elaboration of publication, L State budget ST Long Enhanced professional knowledge MH MoEW, BAS, NCPHA professional periodical actualization and dissemination of and awareness on the CCHH Amount of CCHH professional information capacity series of thematic information materials on matters. materials produced and disseminated. climate change, designed for health care professionals and stakeholders. 1.2.2 Critical review of climate change H State budget ST Medium Health sector well placed to cope Critical review and prescriptions made. MH MRDPW, RHI, MTITC, related infrastructure and technological with climate change via adequate Local Governments and equipment needs of health sector. infrastructure and technological Municipalities Development of recommendations for conditions. priority improvements. 1.2.3 Development, application and L State budget ST Long Adequate healthcare ensured for System of standards for medical treatment of MH RHI, NCPHA periodical actualization of standards for impact of climate change on human health effects of climate change developed & medical treatment of each kind of climate health implemented. change health effects. 2. Build 2.1. Develop 2.1.1 Introduction of CCHH theme in L L ST Long Early familiarization with topic and Published materials and used in school MES BAS, MoEW knowledge base public education primary and secondary education curricula achievement of sustainable and education. and awareness and awareness creative awareness of the problem. for adaptation on adaptation 2.1.2 Multimedia campaign on CCHH, L State medias ST Long Better familiarization with, greater Established base of a rich set of cognitive MTITC BAS, MoEW, MH including developing, publishing and (State awareness of, and more active materials on the subject. distributing of series of promotional budget) and attitude to, the impact of climate materials. private change on human health. medias 2.2 Develop 2.2.1 Build National monitoring system M EU, State & ST Short Basis for launching a monitoring Built and equipped network BAS Local Governments and monitoring, data “Climate Change and Human Health”. municipal process is set up to develop a Municipalities, MoEW collecting and budget national CCHH database. early warning 2.2.2 Maintain process of accurate M State and ST Long Specialized database is established Permanent observation process established with BAS MoEW, NSI, Local operational monitoring; Development and municipal and regularly updated. continuous updating of National database on Governments and permanent updating of National database budget CCHH municipalities "CCHH". 2.2.3 Develop and launch National early M State and ST Long Tool available for high level Permanently operating national system for early BAS MoEW, Local warning system for health effects of climate municipal protection of health. warning of climate change induced health risks. Governments and change. budget municipalities 2.3. Develop 2.3.1 Enhance research knowledge on M National ST Long Strong scientific basis supporting Number of CCHH research projects; CCHH BAS, Medical MoEW research and CCHH (includes: assessing health CCHH Fund process of adapting health sector to research publications; CCHH research events. Universities knowledge base vulnerability, development of vulnerability (item 1.2.6/ii) climate change. and schools maps, development of research base of CCHH monitoring and early warning; database development; and so on). 3. Adapt external 3.1 Adapt built 3.1.1 Development of concept and L State budget ST Long Starting process of improvement Published and disseminated concept MRDPW, BAS UACEG, MoEW environment to and natural guidelines for adjustment of public built protection of built environment to reduce health environment to environment to climate change. climate change. impacts of reduce health 3.1.2. Building and maintaining of public M EU OPs MT Long Increased health protection in Number of newly created permits and related MRDPW UACEG, MoEW, Local climate change impact of climate places with protective architecture and public places against extreme number of created places with protective features Governments and change landscape design against extreme weather weather events. municipalities events. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 161 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Strategic Operational Budget Budget Activities Priority Duration Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (amount) (source) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 162 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Tourism Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 1. Mainstream 1.1 Development 1.1.1 Development of the NAS and L MT budget ST Short A NAS to Climate Change for n.a. n.a. MT MoEW climate change of a Sectoral Action Plan for CCA in the tourism sector the tourism sector, adaptation into Climate Change identifying who is responsible for the An Action Plan policy Policy actions included in it and setting feasible development deadlines for their implementation and legal 1.2 Provision of a 1.2.1 Improve the CCA legal 0.10 None or ST Short Better governance and Number of developed Number of developed ordinances, MoEW All other ministries, framework for comprehensive framework public budget coordination of all adaptation ordinances, regulations, regulations, instructions, and so on. including MT tourism sector legal framework, actions in Bulgaria instructions, and so on. risk management 1.2.2 Develop insurance and risk L None MT Long Better risk and disaster Number of developed Number of developed programs MoEW All other ministries and incentives management programs management programs 1.2.3 Create cross-sectoral policy 0.10 None MT Short Avoidance of overlapping Number of developed Number of developed ordinances, MoEW All other ministries, frameworks activities, efforts, resource ordinances, regulations, regulations, instructions, and so on. including MT expenditure instruction, and so on. 2. Enhance 2.1 Awareness 2.1.1 Develop a national database 0.35 None or MT Medium Higher awareness, higher Number of databases Online portal in place MoEW All other ministries, awareness and raising on (online portal) containing CCA specific public budget knowledge base, higher developed including MT knowledge base climate change information capacity in all sectors for climate and its impacts 2.1.2 Engage in wider dissemination L Public ST Medium Higher awareness, higher Number of communication Number of communication actions (media, MT, NGOs, MoEW change on the sector of CCA knowledge to reach local tourism budget/s knowledge base, higher tools developed publications, seminars, and so on). professional bodies, adaptation in entrepreneurs capacity in all sectors OTRM tourist sector 2.1.3 Introduce climate change 2.58 None MT Short Higher awareness, higher Number of programs Number of programs (courses) introduced MES MT education in schools’ and universities’ knowledge base (courses) developed and running curricula 2.1.4 Develop an outreach brochure L Public MT Medium Higher awareness, higher Number of materials Number of materials produced and MT, NGOs, MoEW and/or other materials (including budget/s knowledge base produced; checklist distributed; professional bodies, internet and other media) explaining EU programs developed Checklist approved and distributed municipalities, tourism business owners how climate OTRM change affects their business, and provide a checklist for planning for climate change impacts 2.1.5. Develop an awareness raising M Public ST Medium Higher awareness, higher Training program and Training seminars conducted, number of MT, NGOs, MoEW seminar for the tourism business (supply budget/s knowledge base, higher materials developed seminar participants professional bodies, side) and conduct nine seminars in the EU programs capacity in the tourism supply municipalities, nine tourist regions subsector OTRM 2.1.6 Develop an awareness raising M Public ST Medium Higher awareness, higher Training program and Training seminars conducted; MT, NGOs, MoEW seminar for the tourism business budget/s knowledge base, higher materials developed Number of seminar participants professional bodies, (intermediaries) and conduct it in key EU programs capacity in the tourism municipalities, cities with a high concentration of travel intermediary subsector OTRM agencies 2.1.7 Develop tourism indicators L Public ST Short Higher knowledge base, Indicators developed Indicators included and distributed to MT, scientific MoEW sensitive to climate change budget/s adequate reaction to climate relevant bodies in specific regulations institutions EU programs change in the sector 2.1.8 Develop climate change L Public ST Short Indicators developed Indicators included and distributed to MT, scientific MoEW indicators relevant for the tourism budget/s relevant bodies in specific regulations institutions sector EU programs --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 163 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 2.2 2.2.1 Develop, finance and M Public MT Long Higher awareness, higher Research project applications Research projects approved, implemented, NGOs, professional MT, EU, MoEW, Strengthening implement climate change research budget/s knowledge base, higher specific project results bodies, other ministries the sector projects and programs related to EU programs capacity in the tourism sector, municipalities, knowledge base tourism and their impacts on tourism adequate reaction to climate scientific development (supply and intermediary change in the sector institutions sectors, tourists) 2.2.2 Initiate the collection of M Public MT Long Higher awareness, higher Collected data per year Database created and developing MT, NGOs, MoEW tourism related data on climate change budget/s knowledge base, higher professional bodies, in the country (two sets of monitoring EU programs capacity in the tourism sector, municipalities, indicators) adequate reaction to climate scientific change in the sector institutions, OTRM 2.2.3 Initiate various types of M Public MT Long Higher awareness, higher Number of publications Number of publications disseminated MT, NGOs, MoEW publications with findings and results budget/s knowledge base, higher prepared and written professional bodies, other ministries from the above activities and EU programs capacity in the tourism sector, municipalities, disseminate these among professional adequate reaction to climate scientific bodies change in the sector institutions, OTRM 2.2.4 Develop and improve a M&E 0.25 Public MT Short Higher awareness, higher Number of sets of various System in place and functioning MT MoEW system budget/s knowledge base, higher M&E indicators other ministries EU programs capacity in the tourism sector, adequate reaction to climate change in the sector 2.2.5 Disseminate developed M Public MT/LT Long Adequate reaction to climate Number of developed specific Number of successfully implemented MT, NGOs, Tourism private specific adaptation measures to budget/s change in the sector, capacity adaptation measures specific adaptation measures professional bodies, enterprises relevant stakeholders (see Strategic EU programs building municipalities, Objective “Development of specific scientific adaptation measures in the tourism institutions, OTRM sector”) 3. Build adaptive 3.1 Regional and 3.1.1 Develop assessment tools for L Public ST Short Methodology for capacity Capacity indicators identified Capacity assessment tool/s in place MT MoEW capacity in sub-sectoral adaptive capacity budget/s assessment created Tourism Sector assessment of EU programs adaptive 3.1.2 Conduct adaptive capacity M Public MT Medium Capacity of the sector assessed Methodology for the An overall regional capacity assessment of MT, municipalities, MoEW capacity assessments in the nine tourist regions budget/s regionally assessment procedure the sector OTRM EU programs developed 3.1.3 Conduct adaptive capacity M Public MT Medium Capacity of the sector assessed Methodology for the An overall subsector assessment of the MT, NGOs, MoEW assessments for the tourism sub-sectors budget/s by sub-sectors and various assessment procedure sector professional bodies – supply sector (hoteliers, restaurateurs, EU programs tourism activities developed transportation companies) and intermediary sector (travel agencies, tour operators, and travel agents) 3.2 Capacity- 3.2.1 Develop climate change M Public ST Medium Adequate reaction to climate Number of materials Number of trainings conducted, No of MT, NGOs, MoEW building training as well as innovative measures budget/s change in the sector, capacity developed, methodology for seminar participants professional bodies, in particular in the municipalities of EU programs building climate change training in municipalities Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Burgas, Kardzhali, place, train the trainers (Sofia, Plovdiv, Ruse, Stara Zagora, Sliven seminars Varna, Burgas, Kardzhali, Ruse, Stara Zagora, Sliven), OTRM 3.2.2 Develop knowledge 0.25 Public MT Medium Adequate reaction to climate Number of dissemination Number of dissemination actions MT, NGOs, MoEW dissemination actions as well as budget/s change in the sector, capacity actions planned successfully implemented professional innovative measures in particular in the EU programs building organizations --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 164 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) municipalities of Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, (Sofia, Plovdiv, Burgas, Kardzhali, Ruse, Stara Zagora, Varna, Burgas, Sliven Kardzhali, Ruse, Stara Zagora, Sliven), municipalities, OTRM 3.2.3 Introduce special programs L None MT Medium Adequate reaction to climate Number of courses created Number of courses run, MES MT, MoEW and courses in colleges and universities change in the sector, capacity and offered Number of students enrolled and graduated building 3.2.4 Improve coordination, 0.50 Public ST Medium Better coordination, Number of regulations, Number regulations, instructions and MoEW MT, all other information, and communication budget/s information, and instructions and mechanisms mechanisms enforced ministries between the responsible governmental EU programs communication between the created and public institutions responsible governmental and public institutions 4. Development 4.1 Adapt 4.1.1 Develop and implement H Public MT Long Better adapted to climate Number of measures Number of measures implemented MT, OTRM, NGOs, Tourism private of specific existing tourism adaptation measures for summer budget/s changes summer tourism identified professional bodies sector adaptation sectors tourism EU programs actions for the 4.1.2 Develop and implement H Public MT Long Better adapted to climate Number of measures Number of measures implemented MT, OTRM, NGOs, Tourism private tourism sector adaptation measures for winter tourism budget/s changes winter tourism identified professional bodies sector EU programs 4.2 Develop new 4.2.1 Develop new tourism types/ M Public MT Long Better adaptation to climate Number of new tourism Number of new tourism MT, OTRM, tourism NGOs, professional tourism and products and/or destinations budget/s changes, reduced seasonality, types/products/destinations types/products/destinations successfully private sector bodies management EU programs four-season tourism developed offered and sold, solutions Number of tourists who have chosen the new types/products/destinations 4.2.2 Identify new tourist sectors M Public MT Long Better adaptation to climate Number of new segments Number of new segments reached; Number MT, OTRM, tourism NGOs, professional (segmentation) budget/s changes, reduced seasonality, identified of tourists from new segments private sector bodies EU programs four-season tourism 4.2.3 Develop and implement new M Public MT Long Better adaptation to climate Number of new marketing Number of new marketing strategies and MT, OTRM, tourism NGOs, professional marketing strategies and approaches budget/s changes, reduced seasonality, strategies and approaches approaches implemented, Number of private sector bodies EU programs four-season tourism developed tourists’ dynamics 4.2.4 Develop sub-sector M Public MT Long Better adaptation to climate Number of management Number of management innovations NGOs, professional MT, OTRM (enterprise) – level resource budget/s EU changes, increased efficiency solutions developed implemented, private sector economic bodies, tourism management solutions programs and economic effectiveness performance private sector --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 165 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Transport Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Duration Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (amount) (source) 1. Build 1.1 Building 1.1.1 Assign CCA L Budgets of ST Short CCA expertise available No specific units/ experts in Specific unit/ expert/s in charge with CCA issues MTITC, All executive institutional institutional responsibilities in the statute and respective with each of the relevant charge with CCA issues at each of the stakeholders (approximate MRDPW agencies and state capacity and capacity internal procedures of the stakeholders stakeholders (appx. estimation 25 stakeholders) enterprises, MI knowledge base relevant stakeholders per (MTITC) estimation 25 of the transport transport subsectors based on stakeholders) sector review and gap analysis 1.1.2 Training needs L Budgets of ST Short (to initiate Trained staff to properly No CCA training programs/ Training needs assessment carried out in all MTITC, All executive assessment and implement respective needs assessment address CCA management plans available relevant stakeholders (approximate 25) MRDPW agencies and state training programs stakeholders and carry out first in the respective area of Specific training programs developed, and first enterprises, MI (MTITC) training programs) responsibility round of training courses carried out Long (to be Training programs reviewed and updated, and repeated regularly training courses carried out periodically that is, every 2–3 years) 1.1.3 Raising public L Budgets of ST Short (to initiate Improved awareness of No awareness raising actions Specific awareness raising plan developed and MTITC MRDPW, awareness towards transport respective and carry out first the society available or planned first round of actions carried out MoEW, relevant climate change and CCA stakeholders actions) Awareness raising plan updated and actions Municipalities, issues (MTITC, MRDPW) Long/Permanent carried out periodically NGOs throughout the Strategy time span 1.2 Building 1.2.1 Introduce and/or L OPTTI for ST Short (to start data Established/improved Available with one of the Established and maintained data bases for each MTITC, All executive knowledge base improve CCA relevant data introduction collection) data bases per transport stakeholders (NRIC for transport subsector (5–6) MRDPW agencies, state collection practice and gradually and/or Long/Permanent to subsector railways) NRIC enterprises and build data base/s for dedicated improvement collect data municipalities studies Budgets of respective stakeholders (MTITC, relevant agencies, companies & state enterprises) 1.2.2 Carry out dedicated L Budgets of MT Long Improved knowledge as a No transport specific study Specific studies carried out per transport MTITC All executive studies to assess mode specific respective (Studies should be basis for planning and at national level subsectors (4–5) MRDPW agencies and state climate change risk and stakeholders updated based on implementing right CCA enterprises vulnerability (MTITC) new available data measures OPs or dynamics of EU/other R&D climate change) Programs 2. Mainstream 2.1 Review and 2.1.1 Development of L Budgets of ST Short Improved climate change No national guidelines exist Developed guidelines per transport subsectors MTITC, Relevant executive climate change enhance project guidelines for considering CCA respective resilience of transport (4) MRDPW agencies and state adaptation preparation issues in project management stakeholders projects to be enterprises per considerations procedures cycle (MTITC) implemented in future transport into key planning OPTTI also possible subsectors and decision- 2.1.2 Enforce considering M Depending of the ST Short to enforce Improved climate change Addressing CCA obligatory Addressing CCA included in respective national MTITC No making CCA issues in project financing source for resilience of transport for projects funded from EU regulation/ bylaws for project preparation per MRDPW Long/ permanent processes management cycle project preparation projects to be OPs transport subsectors to apply guidelines implemented in future --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 167 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Duration Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (amount) (source) 2.2 Review and 2.2.1 Develop and implement M MRDPW budget ST Short to develop Improved resilience of No program for Program for strengthening road network MRDPW No improve program for strengthening road Program critical road infrastructure strengthening road network resilience to extreme weather events operation and network resilience to extreme Long/ Permanent and less traffic disruptions resilience to extreme developed maintenance weather events to implement weather events exists Annual budget allocated for strengthening road Program network resilience to extreme weather events 2.2.2 Develop and implement M MTITC/ NRIC ST Short to develop Improved resilience of No program for Program for strengthening railway network MTITC NRIC program for strengthening budget/s Program critical railway strengthening railway resilience to extreme weather events railway network resilience to Long/Permanent to infrastructure and less network resilience to developed extreme weather events implement Program traffic disruptions extreme weather events Annual budget allocated for strengthening exists railway network resilience to extreme weather events 2.3 Review and 2.3.1 Update of guidelines for H MRDPW/ budget/s ST Short to update Improved resilience of Outdated guidelines for Updated guidelines for design of roads’ culverts MRDPW RIA update of design design of roads’ culverts and guidelines newly built or design of roads’ culverts and and bridges norms bridges Long/Permanent to reconstructed road bridges apply updated infrastructure and less guidelines traffic disruptions 2.3.3 Update the guidelines H MTITC/ NRIC ST Short to update Improved resilience of Outdated guidelines for Updated guidelines for design of railway’s MTITC NRIC for design of railways’ culverts budget/s guidelines newly or reconstructed design of rail culverts and culverts and bridges and bridges Long/Permanent to railway infrastructure and bridges apply updated less traffic disruptions guidelines 2.3.4 Regular update of road L Not relevant MT Long/ Permanent Provide for design norms No obligation for regular Obligation for regular review and update MTITC NRIC and rail design norms in line with the actual review and update exists embedder in the guideline MRDPW RIA climate change and for more resilient transport infrastructure --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 168 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Urban Environment Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 1. Strengthen 1.1 Policy – 1.1.1 Organize a discussion forum to agree on a 0.003 SB ST <5 years Communicated knowledge among Municipalities involved - 3 Municipalities involved - 100 MRDPW, UAB, Union of policy and legal Mainstream CCA common vision and develop common urban planning professionals about professionals involved Professionals involved - 100 MoEW Planners in Bulgaria framework to in regional and understanding on CCA policy and strategy CCA priorities and goals, and (UPB), UACEG, Sofia mainstream urban implementation in practice University (SU) adaptation to development 1.1.2 Mainstream CCA into policies of regional 0.12 SB ST <5 years More effective and integrated Number of Acts – 1; Number of Acts - 3 MRDPW MoEW climate change and urban development, including housing and spatial and urban development Number of regulations - 2 Number of Regulations - 3 construction, by revising the Spatial Planning Act policies 1.1.3 Incorporate CCA into the new National H SB, private MT 5–10 Safer housing areas and more Number of EE renovated Completed renovated buildings MRDPW Local authorities, Housing Strategy years energy efficient residential buildings multifamily buildings - 929 until 25.05.2018 – 1230 from a construction total 2022 from the National companies Energy Efficiency Programme for multifamily building 1.2 Revise and 1.2.1 Mainstream CCA requirements in all 5.40 SB ST <5 years Better regulations for regional and Total number of acts and Number of Acts - 2 MRDPW MoEW, National amend all types legislative documents related to regional and spatial development, more efficient regulations Number of Regulations 4 Centre for Regional of legislative spatial/urban planning (Spatial Planning Act, land use, concentration of Development (NCRD) Guidelines 1 documents to Regional Development Act, Regulations No. 4, 7, resources, reduced risk zones and transpose CCA and 8 at the Spatial Planning Act, Regulation for groups issues after a spatial development documents preparation, Regulatory Regulations on EIA and SEA) Impact 1.2.2 Revise and update the requirements for M SB, municipal ST <5 years Development of new type of Number of documents updated Number of documents updated: MRDPW NCRD, local Assessment the scope and contents of main tools in the budget strategic documents for regional - 0 authorities and national level - 1, regional level - above acts and regulations (NCSD, spatial and spatial planning at all levels with 5, district level – 28, and private consultancy development schemes and plans, detailed plans) integrated measures for CCA and municipal level - 265 DRM 1.3 Technology/ 1.3.1 Improve construction and maintenance L Municipal ST <5 years Better construction and Number of Expert Councils with Expert councils - 200 CAB Local authorities, Construction - supervision and monitoring and control by the budget, maintenance supervision, introduced rules for CCA Number of green/sustainable Bulgarian Green Implement new competent bodies, and Total Quality private monitoring and control, leading to measures Number of climate building certificates - 100 Building Council Eurocodes and Management systems on projects and more resilient and healthier change resilient certified (BGBC) technical norms construction through sustainable building environment buildings in planning, certification design, 1.3.2 Stimulate creative urban design, resilient 0.11 Professional ST <5 years Development of new professional Number of competitions and Young architects and planners’ UAB UPB, universities, construction to climate change through annual competitions organizations culture among young architects scholarships competitions 1 per year and media technologies, and awards and planners for more responsive scholarships for creative design - and building design 2 each year materials 1.3.3 Promote green, smart, and innovative L Private MT 5–10 Better quality of life, healthier Number of designs, Registered/certified innovations CAB, BCC, Other professional cities, buildings and technologies planning, years population, reduced climate change construction technologies and in smart cities and buildings municipalities bodies and design and certification; as well as innovative and disaster risks, more attractive materials innovations design (Sofia, universities measures in particular in the municipalities of and safer urban environment, registered Plovdiv, Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Burgas, Kardzhali, Ruse, reduced health services costs, less Varna, Stara Zagora, Sliven non-renewable resources used Burgas, Kardzhali, Ruse, Stara Zagora, Sliven) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 169 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 2. Build adaptive 2.1 Develop 2.1.1 Organize horizontal coordination between 0.80 SB MT 5–10 Establishment of multisectoral Number of consultation and Number of consultation and MRDPW, MAFF, ME, MI capacity sustainable MRDPW, MoEW, ME, MAFF, MF, MI years consultation group for better coordination meetings coordination meetings 2 per year MoEW institutions coordinated actions for CCA of the capable of urban environment with other providing CCA sectors policy at all 2.1.2 Organize vertical and horizontal L SB ST <5 years Appointment of coordination Number of experts involved -2 Number of experts involved - 7 MRDPW MRDPW administrative coordination between all directorates in the experts in all spatial and urban Directorates levels MRDPW, related to urban environment CCA and planning related directorates of the DRM MRDPW 2.1.3 Improve cooperation between national, L SB MT 5–10 Monitored CCA policy Number of Regional Number of Regional RDC DDC, municipalities regional, and local levels authorities in CCA years implementation at regional and Development Councils Development Plans (RDC) NUTS2 policy implementation local levels and proposed measures meetings (NUTS2 and NUTS3 meetings - 1 per year and District for improved integration (district) levels) organized on Development Plans (DDC) NUTS3 CCA policy implementation meetings 1 per year 2.1.4 Develop capacity in the directorates M SB ST <5 years Improved knowledge on CCA in Number of retraining courses – Number of courses - 1 per year; MRDPW UACEG, SU through retraining and additional expert Urban Environment and better- 0; Number of retrained experts Number of experts - 7 per course employment informed decision-making process -2 2.1.5 Provide guidelines and methodological L SB, municipal ST <5 years Supported municipalities for CCA Guidelines issued - 0, Number Guidelines – 1, MRDHP Local authorities support to municipalities for the development of budget local strategies development and of local strategies developed - 3 Number of local strategies local CCA strategies implementation adopted - 100 2.2 Develop and 2.2.1 Build DRM and emergency response 28.40 SB ST <5 years Revised and improved capacity of Number of DRM and Number of trained and modern District and Ministries and upscale capabilities, provide sufficient and modern the local DRM units and more emergency response units, equipped DRM and emergency municipal authorities on institutional, equipment, and financial support appropriate reaction to crises trained and modern equipped response units - no less than 28 administratio national level administrative, ns and expert 2.2.2 Provide appropriate accurate and updated L SB ST <5 years Improved decision-making process Number of early warning Number of early warning systems MI District DRM units, capacity information due to accurate and timely systems in cities providing in cities providing information Local authorities information about expected information about expected about expected weather events weather events weather events - 28 in real time - 28 2.2.3 Develop awareness, commitment, CCA L SB ST <5 years Better informed and more Number of awareness raising Number of awareness raising MI Local authorities, knowledge and culture among the general public responsible population about events organized events organized in big cities - 28 NGOs reduced CC risks and damages 3. Develop 3.1 Change 3.1.1 Revise existing financial instruments and 5.60 Private MT 5–10 Financial instruments innovation, Share of private funds for EE Share of private funds for EE MRDPW Insurance companies financial, social financial, social, design new ones for CCA and DRM, including for years better financial protection of renovation of residential and renovation of residential and and risk and insurance EE and construction renovation of buildings population non-residential buildings non-residential buildings Number management policies Number of population with of population with insurance for policies for insurance for DRM DRM adaptation to 3.1.2 Using EU funds’ potential for CCA and DRM L EU MT 5–10 Increased financial capacity for CCA Share of attracted EU funds Share of attracted EU funds for MRDPW Municipalities climate-change years and DRM Action plan 2014–2020 CCA and DRM after 2020 implementation 4. Enhance 4.1 Information – 4.1.1 Create common standards for the 0.50 SB ST <5 years Common standards on city level Number of climate indicators Number of climate indicators on ExEA NIMH, BAS, RIEW knowledge Secure type, structure, scope, and format of metadata introduced, thus supporting CCA on city level - temperature and city level with provided management, institutionally and data, harmonized with EU at city level research precipitations information - temperature and research, regulated precipitations education and exchange of 4.1.2 Exchange information with European L SB, EU MT 5–10 More reliable data base established Number of international Number of new international ExEA NIMH, BAS, RIEW stakeholder information and countries and international institutions programs years for climate change and disasters contacts established in the contacts established - 2 communication data according to forecasting, reduced damages and country - 3 for adaptation INSPIRE directive costs for DRM and post-disaster obligations recovery 4.1.3 Provide open access to information for L SB ST <5 years Better informed general public and Established open access CCA Number of users per year MoEW MRDPW, the general public higher CCA awareness, more platform Municipalities, IT appropriate public participation consultant --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 170 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities (amount in Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 4.2 Research – 4.2.1 Identify priority scientific topics, linked 9.25 SB, EU funds ST <5 years Updated National Strategy for Number of new priorities set; Number of new priorities set; MES Universities Provide common with the city, open and green spaces, buildings, Development of Research (2017– long-term vision infrastructure, construction materials and 2030) better focused on CCA of Number of research projects Number of CCA research projects and objectives in human health, and their risk resilience urban environment funded funded urban assessment environment CCA 4.2.2 Support innovations in construction, M SB, EU MT 5–10 Established collaboration between Number of commissioned Number of commissioned studies Construction Construction research through technologies and services, relevant to CCA programs years construction business and applied studies Chamber companies, amendment of through funded studies by construction business science for more resilient materials construction the National and technologies materials labs Scientific Research Development Strategy 4.3 Education - 4.3.1 Organize appropriate format 1.02 SB, EU ST <5 years CCA education needs assessed, Number of courses organized Number of courses organized 3 UACEG CAB, MRDPW, other ‘Train the education and training for all levels—from program developed (with 3 types of per year for different target universities trainers’ on CCA politicians to the public, based on the courses) and knowledge upgraded groups educational needs assessment 4.3.2 Establish joint multidisciplinary M SB, EU ST <5 years Upgraded knowledge on climate Number of trained students and Number of trained students and UACEG MES, UNWE, SU, UF courses for planners, architects, engineers, change and DRM in Urban MSc graduates MSc graduates 12 per year landscape architects, ecologists, economists, Environment in all professional sociologists, and financial management fields in the Urban Environment professionals on master’s level 4.3.3 Provide tutoring and organize M SB, EU MT 5–10 Urban environment CCA priority Number of PhD thesis on Urban Number of PhD thesis on Urban MES UACEG, UNWE, SU, thematic PhD years topics explored and results applied Environment CCA topic Environment CCA topic UF in the sector 4.3.4 Develop interactive CCA platform for M SB, EU MT 5–10 Improved awareness about climate Reduced costs of climate Reduced costs of climate change UACEG MES, UNWE, SU, UF distance and open learning in support of years change in the urban environment change and disasters damages and disasters damages - percent politicians, administrators, professionals, NGOs, and better decisions taken on of the baseline year and the public, with special apps for the disabled adaptation and DRM 4.4 Partnership - 4.4.1 Promote partnership, networking, and 1.03 SB ST <5 years Identified problems, needs, and Published report on results Published report on results 1 MRDPW NGOs Work in collaboration among different age, gender, stakeholders, improved partnership and ethnicity, professional, and social groups, cooperation, economy of scale and communicate including the disadvantaged ones resources knowledge 4.4.2 Organize a social network for support L SB, ESIF, ST <5 years Facilitated social support for the Established social support group MLSP Municipalities of vulnerable groups NGOs most vulnerable groups for most vulnerable 4.4.3 Realize public-private partnerships in L Municipal ST <5 years Reduced financial burden on the Number of public-private Number of public-private District District and support of DRM and Unified national system for budget, state and municipal budgets shared partnerships established at partnerships established at local governors municipal councils citizens’ protection private responsibilities local level level and on disasters risk municipal reduction, private mayors sector 4.4.4 Work with media for promotion of the L SB, municipal MT 5–10 Better informed society; CCA Number of media campaigns, Number of media campaigns, MRDPW MoEW, Media and CCA system budget years messages, vision, and goals clearly events and or publications on events, publications on CCA and all partners involved distributed among different public CCA and DRM DRM in CCA of the Urban and communication channels; Environment increased interest among business community; achieved goals for transparency, accountability, and information --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 171 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Action Plan – Water Sector Performance Indicators Responsible Institutions Budget (in Duration Budget Priority Strategic Operational Activities Expected Results Current Targeted Lead Partner(s) Objective Objective (source) mln. Euro) 1. Enhance 1.1 Adapt the 1.1.1 Clarify roles and responsibilities for 0.20 State budget ST 2 years Improved coordination among institutions Some roles and responsibilities are All roles and responsibilities MoEW MRDPW, MEn, Adaptive legal framework CCA clear clarified MAFF, MEn Governance to make it 1.1.2 Synchronize the planning periods 0.15 State budget ST 2 years RBMPs and BPs effectively and efficiently Different planning periods Synchronized planning periods MRDPW MEW instrumental for between water and sanitation support implemented addressing organizations’ BPs and RBMPs/FRMPs climate change 0.15 1.1.3 Introduce economic incentives for State budget ST 5 years Adopted more water efficient and less water Pricing economic incentives exists Introduced trading, MoEW MRDPW, MF, impacts behavioral change polluting technologies and practices; managed (quantity-based water supply cooperation, and risk MAFF flood risk system tariffs, water-use, and management schemes pollution charges) 2. Strengthen 2.1 Maximize 2.1.1 Secure funds for CCA research and 0.25 Scientific MT 5 years Latest research achievements implemented in Lower level of funding for CCA Level of funding increased MES MEc knowledge base the use of implementation of CCA-related research fund/ practice research in comparison to other EU and awareness research and innovations private sector countries for adaptation education 2.1.2 Provide research support to RBDs 0.13 State budget MT 5 years Enhanced quality of plans and programs A few framework agreements for Increased framework MoEW RBDs, research institutions through framework agreements developed by RBDs research support of RBDs agreements for research and education support institutions 2.2 Enhance 2.2.1 Enhance primary and secondary 0.05 State budget ST 2 years Increased effectiveness of climate change Existence of the subject in the Increased presence of the CCA MES MoEW awareness, education curriculums for CCA transmission to children current curriculums in the curriculums education and 0.10 2.2.2 Prepare and carry out CCA State budget MT 5 years Increased preparedness of the stakeholders Some training exists 5 training modules developed, MoEW MRDPW, MAFF, training trainings of public administration and and 1,000 stakeholders MEn, UACEG water operators trained 2.3. Enhance 2.3.1 Extend and upgrade CCA related 0.50 State budget MT 5 years Obtained sufficient and reliable water A few monitoring stations 50% of existing monitoring MoEW RBDs, NIMH monitoring and monitoring networks of precipitation, monitoring data upgraded stations upgraded; monitoring flexibility water resources and water use stations increased by 30% 2.3.2 Establish dynamic, publicly 0.75 State budget MT 5 years Improved decision making under uncertainty Does not exist Operational publicly available MoEW RBDs, NIMH available GIS database geographic information system database 3. Enhance 3.1 Adapt 3.1.1 Revise and update design and 0.13 State budget ST 4 years Ensured climate change adaptive design and Some norms are updated All norms updated MRDPW MoEW adaptive design and construction norms construction of managed water systems management of construction water system 3.2. Adapt 3.2.1 Develop methodology and assess 1.00 Infrastructure MT 1 year Identified significant water infrastructure Some water infrastructure is Developed methodology and MOEW MAFF, MEn, infrastructure operation adaptive capacity of significant water owners which needs reinforcement already assessed 50% of significant water UACEG, ME, BAS infrastructure27 infrastructure assessed 3.2.2 Include CCA measures in the 0.30 Infrastructure MT 2 years Adequately and safely operated water systems A few operation plans include CCA Operational plans of assessed MEn, MRDPW, MoEW infrastructure operational plans owners consideration water systems include CCA MAFF measures 27 The methodology itself should determine the threshold of significant water infrastructure. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 172 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Annex 4. List of Sector Assessment Reports This Strategy and Action Plan builds on the following CCA reports, prepared by the World Bank as part of the project ‘Advisory Services on a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan’.  Assessment of the Agriculture Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Biodiversity an Ecosystems Services Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Energy Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Forestry Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Human Health Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Tourism Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Transport Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Urban Environment (February 2018)  Assessment of the Water Sector (February 2018)  Assessment of the Disaster Risk Management Sector (May 2018) Furthermore:  Macro-economic Implications of Climate Change – Analysis (May 2018) --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- 173