Albania Revised Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)

2.1. Situation of the country ........................................................................................................ 4

2.2. Projections ........................................................................................................................... 7 3. ADAPTATION ........................................................................................................................ 27

3.1. The Albanian coast and AFOLU sector - background ...................................................... 28

3.2. Climate variability and change .......................................................................................... 33

3.3. Climate change risks, impacts and vulnerability ............................................................... 36

3.4. Adaptation measures......................................................................................................... 62 4. FAIRNESS, AMBITION AND CONTRIBUTION TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION ................................................................................................................. 75 5. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................................................... 77

5.1. Institutional and legal aspects ........................................................................................... 77

5.2. Knowledge and capacity ................................................................................................... 77

5.3. Technology transfer ........................................................................................................... 78

5.4. Finance .............................................................................................................................. 78 6. CLARITY, TRANSPARENCY AND UNDERSTANING ......................................................... 79 7. ANNEXES............................................................................................................................... 85 Annex 1. Mitigation calculations (details for sectors) .................................................................... 85

7.1. Energy ............................................................................................................................... 85

7.2. IPPU................................................................................................................................... 94

7.3. Waste ................................................................................................................................. 94

7.4. AFOLU ............................................................................................................................. 101 Annex 2. Adaptation ..................................................................................................................... 114

7.5. Map related to the presentation of the Albanian coast ................................................... 114

7.6. Graphs, figures and maps related to climate variability and change .............................. 115

7.7. Figure related to sectoral vulnerability ............................................................................ 121

7.8. Detailed prioritization table .............................................................................................. 122 1 Albania Revised NDC 2 Albania Revised NDC ABBREVATIONS 4NC Fourth National Communication of Albania to the UNFCCC AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses ALKOGAP Albania - Kosovo Pipeline (Project) AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC ARDA Agriculture and Rural Development Agency BAU Business-as-usual BOD Biochemical oxygen demand C Carbon CAP Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union CCGT Combined cycle gas turbine CCKP Climate Change Knowledge Portal CH4 Methane CMPI5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent COD Chemical oxygen demand ECCS Draft Environmental Cross-cutting Strategy EE Energy Efficiency EFFIS European Forest Fire Information System EU European Union EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FNC First National Communication FOLU Forest and Other Land Use GACMO Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model GDI Gender development index GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse gas GWP Global Warming Potential Ha Hectares HDI Human Development Index IAP Ionian Adriatic Pipeline Project) ICSP Integrated cross-sectoral plan for the coastal belt IMWGCC Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Climate Change INSTAT Albanian Institute of Statistics IPARD Rural Development Programme 2014-2020 under the Instrument for Pre- accession Assistance IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change i Albania Revised NDC IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use ISARD Inter-sectoral Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development kt Kilotons LANFPF Draft law on the administration of the national forest and pasture fund in the republic of Albania LEAP Low Emissions Analysis Platform LPG Liquefied petroleum gas MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MOTE Ministry of Tourism and Environment MSW Municipal solid waste N Nitrogen N2O Nitrous oxide NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NEEAP National Energy Efficiencies Actions Plans NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan NSCC National Strategy on Climate Change NSDI-II National Strategy for Development and Integration 2015-2020 NSE National Energy Strategy 2018-2030 NTP National Territorial Plan PDFS On Policy Document of the Forest Sector in Albania – 2030 PPM Parts per million RCP Representative Concentration Pathways RES Renewable Energy Sources SDG Sustainable Development Goals SLR Sea-level rise SPDBP Strategic Policy Document for the Protection of Biodiversity SPEI Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index TAP The Trans Adriatic Pipeline Project TCI Tourism Climate Index TJ Terajoules TNC Third National Communication of Albania to the UNFCCC TPP Thermal power plant UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ii 1. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES The Republic of Albania is a Balkan country in Southeast Europe. It is located to the North of Greece and to the South of Montenegro and Kosovo. To the West, it borders the Ionian (South) and the Adriatic (North) seas, in the Mediterranean Sea, for 450 km. Albania’s land area totals 28,748 km2. The country’s average altitude is 700 meters above sea level, as 70% of the territory is mountainous. Albania has a subtropical Mediterranean climate, which involves mild and humid winters and hot and dry summers, with some continental influence. The mean annual temperature (1901-2016) is 11.5°C, and mean precipitation is 1019.8 mm. Error! Reference source not found. below shows the average monthly temperature and rainfall. Figure 1. Albania’s average monthly temperature and rainfall (1901-2016) Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) Albania is a highly biodiverse country. The mountainous topography, the different geological strata, types of soil and Mediterranean climate with some continental influence contribute to this diversity. About 17% of Albanian territory had protected status in 2016. Albania possesses important water resources. They are an important source of hydropower, producing 90% of the country’s energy and providing irrigation for agriculture. Water resources have been polluted in populated areas. Albania also counts with metals and oil. In 2019, Albania had an estimated population of 2.88 million. Recent demographic developments show that Albania's population is shrinking and heading towards aging. This is due to negative natural growth and most importantly negative net migration. Most studies project that the demographic decline will continue. Albania is fairly densely populated. In 2018, the average population density was 99.7 inhabitants per km2. Albania has experienced a strong urbanization process: urban population increased from one-third in the early 1990s to an estimate of almost two-thirds (62%) in 2020. The largest city is Tirana, the country’s capital, which had an estimated population of 421,000 in 2020, with a greater metropolitan population of 764,000. The second-largest metropolitan area in Albania is the ancient city of Durrës, only 30 km from Tirana, with an estimated population of 201,519 in 2020. Other major cities include Vlorë, Elbasan and Shkodër. The urban population share is expected to rise. 1 Albania Revised NDC After 50 years of communist rule, Albania has transformed from one of the poorest countries in Europe in the early 1990s to an upper-middle-income country in 2020. As a result of three decades of remarkable economic growth, in 2019, its GDP amounted to USD 15.3 billion, and its GDP per capita to USD 5,450. This economic growth has been associated with structural economic changes, with a transition from an economy based on raw materials and agriculture and industry, into a more diverse economy, where the service sector plays a leading role. In 2019, the service sector (represented by the subsectors of trade, transport, commercial activities and telecommunication services) constituted about 50% of the GDP of the country. Industry and construction made up about 20% of the GDP and the agriculture sector contributed about 19% of the GDP. Public debt was over 65% in 2019. Over the last three decades social indicators have improved in Albania. In 2019 Albania’s Human Development Index (HDI) value, which considers life expectancy at birth, education and gross national income per capita, was 0.795— which put the country in the high human development category— positioning it at 69 out of 189 countries and territories1. In 2012, the most recent year with official poverty figures, 14.3% of Albanians lived below the national poverty line 2, while 1.1% lived below the international extreme poverty line and 39.1% lived below the upper middle income poverty line. Unemployment reached a historically low 11.4 percent in Q3 of 2019. The latest Gini index was estimated at 33.2 in 2017 (0 representing equality and 100 inequality). The socio-economic progress of Albania has been recently hampered by two shocks. The country was hit by a devastating earthquake in November 2019. The earthquake, measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale, the strongest in 30 years, caused 51 fatalities, injured at least 913 people and affected over 200,000 people (17,000 people were displaced). It caused extensive damage to physical assets in 11 municipalities, including the two most populous and developed municipalities (Tirana and Durres). Tourism assets and housing were hit the hardest. The earthquake led to losses equivalent to an estimated 7.5% of GDP. In the midst of the reconstruction efforts, the COVID-19 crisis is putting more pressure on the Government’s budget and response, and the country’s socio-economic progress, as it forced Albania, as other countries, to put key economic sectors in lockdown. The tourism sector, a key driver of growth, was hit especially hard because of containment measures and travel restrictions. In the second quarter of 2020, employment declined by 3.6% year-on-year. The earthquake and the pandemic are expected to significantly increase poverty, resulting in poverty rates comparable to those in 2005. Since the early 1990s, Albania has implemented important structural reforms to promote equitable economic growth and improve governance and public service delivery. In a transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy, this has included macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability, financial sector stabilization, energy reform, social assistance and disability reform, and territorial decentralization. 1 Between 1990 and 2019, Albania’s life expectancy at birth increased by 6.7 years, mean years of schooling increased by 2.3 years and expected years of schooling increased by 3.1 years. Albania’s GNI per capita increased by about 183.5 percent between 1990 and 2019. 2 The national poverty line is set at 60% of national median equalised disposable income (after social transfers). The percentage of Albanians living below the poverty line decreased from 25.4% in 2002 to 12.5 in 2008 and then increased to 14.3% in 2012. The international extreme poverty line is set up at US$1.90 per person per day (2011 PPP). The upper middle income country poverty line is set at 5.5 per person per day, 2011 PPP. 2 Albania Revised NDC The key national planning document currently in place is the National Strategy for Development and Integration 2015-2020 (NSDI-II), which was adopted by the Government of Albania in May 2016. This strategic document reflects the vision, priorities, objectives and means for social and economic development of the country up to 2020. About 37 sectoral strategies3 adopted by the Albanian Government (and in three cases, by the Parliament) complement the NSDI-II. The NSDI-II is organized around 13 cross-cutting foundations on good governance, democracy and rule of law, and four main sectoral pillars: i) growth through macroeconomic and fiscal stability; ii) economic growth through enhanced competitiveness and innovation; ii) investing in social capital and social cohesion and iv) growth through sustainable use of natural resources and territorial development. National elections took place in April 2021. The overarching goal of NSDI-II is the accession to the European Union (EU). After the EU’s decision in March 2014 to open accession talks with the country, Albania is advancing the EU integration agenda. As part of the process, the country is transposing and implementing parts of the EU legislation - most national plans or actions, including in the environmental domain, are now designed to take into account policies and directives of the EU. Albania is also considering the EU’s strategies and plans for the Western Balkans of which Albania is part4, such as the EU Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans5, adopted in October 2020, the EU Green Deal for the Western Balkans6, adopted in November 2020, and the the Decision Nr. 90, date 17.2.2021 « On approval of National Plan for European Integration, 2021–2023 »among others. Besides the EU, Albania is an active participant in multilateral organizations and agreements. The Republic of Albania is a signatory Party of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was ratified by the Albanian Parliament in 1994. In April 2016, Albania signed the Paris Agreement. In December 2017 the Albanian Parliament unanimously approved a resolution confirming the country’s commitment to Agenda 2030 and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs). In line with global and regional commitments and national priorities, Albania has made progress on climate change mitigation and adaptation. In 2014, the Albanian government established the Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Climate Change (IMWGCC), which coordinates all institutions involved in climate change processes and facilitates the integration of climate change into relevant new and existing policies, programs and activities. In July 2019 Albania approved a National Climate Change Strategy and corresponding national mitigation and adaptation plans. The country has implemented several mitigation and adaptation projects and studies. The Republic of Albania submitted its first NDC in November 2015, with the commitment “to reduce CO2 emissions compared to the baseline scenario in the period of 2016 and 2030 by 11.5%, or 708 kT CO2 emission reduction in 2030”. Regarding mitigation, the scope was limited 3 Including for instance the energy strategy of 2018, the sustainable transport sector plan of 2015 or the national strategy for sustainable tourism development 2019-2023. 4 In addition to Albania, for the EU the Western Balkans region includes Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, North- Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina 5 This investment plan, which will mobilise up to €9 billion of funding for the region, aims to spur the long-term economic recovery of the region, support a green and digital transition, foster regional integration and convergence with the European Union. 6 This foresees actions around five pillars: (i) climate action, including decarbonization, energy and mobility, (ii) circular economy, addressing in particular waste, recycling, sustainable production and efficient use of resources, (iii) biodiversity, aiming to protect and restore the natural wealth of the region, (iv) fighting air, water and soil pollution and (v) sustainable food systems and rural areas. 3 Albania Revised NDC in terms of both gases and sectors. The NDC only covered CO2 gases - it did not include other relevant gases such as CH4, N2O, F-gases; and it only covered energy and industrial processes sectors - it did not include agriculture, Forest and Other Land Use (FOLU) and waste sectors. No references to specific mitigation actions or adaptation were included. 2. MITIGATION

2.1. Situation of the country

2.1.1. Historical GHG emissions trends Albania’s greenhouse gas (GHG) mean annual emissions, according to the national inventory prepared for the 4th National Communication and the final draft of 1st BUR, amounted to 10.8 Mt CO2e/y in the period 2009-2016. Compared to the rest of Europe, this level of emission is low. While the level of emissions per capita is 8.7 t CO2e/hab in the EU-27 in 2018, the level of emission per capita in Albania is 3.5 t CO2e/hab in 2016. During this period, emissions have increased only slightly: they amounted to 9,925 kt CO2e in 2009 and to 10,139 kt CO2e in 2016 (+2.2%). During this period, only important variation in terms of emissions is due to exceptional episodes of forest fires in 2011-2012 that are accounted in the FOLU sector. Figure 2. Albania’s mean annual GHG emissions (kt CO2e) per sector (2009-2016) This overall national evolution hides discrepancies between individual sectors:  Emissions of the Energy sector amounted to 4,243 kt CO2e in 2009 and to 4,664 kt CO2e in 2016 (+9.9%).  Emissions of the Industrial processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector amounted to 1,356 kt CO2e in 2009 and to 1,020 kt CO2e in 2016 (-24.8%). This decrease is mainly due to a technology switch in the Iron & Steel sector between 2009 (Direct Reduced Iron Production) and 2010 (Electric Arc Furnace). 4 Albania Revised NDC  Emissions of the Waste sector amounted to 621 kt CO2e in 2009 and to 838 kt CO2e in 2016 (+35.1%).  Emissions of the Agriculture sector amounted to 2,239 kt CO2e in 2009 and to 2,344 kt CO2e in 2016 (+4.7%).  Emissions of the Forest and Other Land Use (FOLU) sector amounted to 1,467 kt CO2e in 2009 and to 1,274 kt CO2e in 2016 (-12.4%). Emissions peaks are caused by the effect of exceptional episodes of forest fires in 2011-2012. However, the fuelwood demand is the important driver of FOLU trends in general and is the main reason why the FOLU is not a net carbon sink during the period as CO2 emissions from the combustion of wood are reported under the FOLU sector and not under the energy sector. Specific trends per sector are presented on the figure below: Figure 3. Emission trends (kt CO2e) per sector (2009-2016) 2.1.2. 2016 GHG inventory In 2016, according to the national inventory figures from the draft of the first BUR and the 4 th National Communication, used as a base for the NDC projections, Albania emitted 10,184 kt CO2e, 46.0% from the Energy sector; 23.1% from the Agriculture sector; 12.6% from the FOLU sector; 10.1% from the IPPU sector and 8.3% from the Waste sector. Figure 4. 2016 emissions 5 Albania Revised NDC 6 Albania Revised NDC

2.2. Projections

2.2.1. BAU scenario The NDC relies on the comparison between a Business as Usual scenario (BAU) and a NDC scenario considering mitigation measures. Projections rely on macro-economic assumptions such as GDP and population forecast but also on historical trends, strategies and plans as endorsed at national level. Population is expected to remain constant on the time-series. GDP forecast considered in the assumptions is presented on the figure below. Figure 5. Historical data and GDP forecast7 The BAU scenario relies on current trends and future economic development. It considers the national circumstances such as the current energy poverty. No major technology switch is taken into account. The BAU considers only very small scale improvements for Energy Efficiency (energy efficiency based on technology improvement and fleet renewal) and Renewable energy as well as laws adopted before 2016 (increase of biofuels share in the road transport to reach 10% in 2030) and introduction of imported Natural gas in the country around 2023. The NDC scenario takes into account national strategies and action plans as detailed at sectoral level below (summary; more details are provided in Annex 1. Mitigation calculations (details for sectors)). 7 Study on carbon pricing design for the energy community (ENC,2020) 7 Albania Revised NDC Figure 6. Historic and projected emissions (kt CO2e) for all sectors (BAU) Considering all sectors (including FOLU), emissions for the BAU scenario increase from 10,139 kt CO2e in 2016 to 15,148 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of +49.4%.

2.2.2. NDC scenario The figure below presents the projected evolution of emissions for all sectors according to the NDC scenario. The relative contribution of each sector to the total of emissions remains similar to the situation of the reference year, except for the FOLU sector that has a decreasing impact, due to a higher level of absorption by sinks and a lower level of emissions by sources. Figure 7. Evolution of emissions per sector (kt CO2e) according to the NDC scenario The aggregated effect of mitigation actions is presented in the following figure. Considering all sectors (including FOLU), emissions for the NDC scenario (with mitigation measures) increase from 10,139 kt CO2e in 2016 to 11,978 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents 8 Albania Revised NDC an increase of +18.1%. The difference, in 2030, with the BAU scenario, is -3,170 kt CO2e, which represents a mitigation impact of -20.9%. Overall, the mitigation actions accounted in the NDC scenario could help avoid, in total during the period 2021-2030, 16,828 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. This is the cumulative effect of the emissions reduction between NDC scenario and BAU scenario. Figure 8. Evolution of total emissions according to the NDC scenario and difference with the BAU scenario Figure 9. Emission reductions between the NDC and BAU scenarios by sector, in 2030 The % reduction relate on each sector, not on the total GHG emissions as presented in the table below. Table 1. Summary of the mitigation reduction in 2030 (NDC compared to BAU scenario) 2030 2030 Reduction in NDC BAU NDC com pared to BAU GgCO2e GgCO2e GgCO2e % Energy 8 466 6 544 -1 921 -23% IPPU 1 854 1 854 0 0% Waste 966 959 -7 -1% Agriculture 2 140 2 071 -68 -3% FOLU 1 722 549 -1 174 -68% Total 15 148 11 978 -3 170 -20,9% 9 Albania Revised NDC

2.2.3. Energy

2.2.3.1. Energy supply and consumption (2009 – 2016) The primary energy supply in Albania is dominated by oil products, hydro and net import electricity, fuel wood and a small amount of coal and natural gas as shown on Figure 12. Final Energy Consumption by energy source for the year 2009 (%) and 2016 (%) Oil products have been reduced from 60.40% (2009) at 58.93% (2016), hydro & net import electricity have increased from 26.69% (2009) to 28.53% and wood has been reduced from 10.04% (2009) to 7.96% (2016). Error! Reference source not found. shows the Final Energy Consumption in Albania in 2009 and 2016 respectively, demonstrating that the transport sector consumes the most final energy, followed by households and industry. Figure 10. Energy supply (ktoe) by energy source for the period 2009-2016 10 Albania Revised NDC Figure 11. Energy Supply by energy source for the year 2009 (%) and 2016 (%) Figure 12. Final Energy Consumption by energy source for the year 2009 (%) and 2016 (%) Electricity generation has been historically met almost exclusively by hydropower plants, with a total installed power capacity of 2,011 MW at the end of 2016. The country has exploited approximately 50% of its hydropower potential, and future expansion of hydropower capacity is possible mainly along the Drini, Mati, Devolli, and Bistrica rivers. Given that one of the most important natural renewable energy resources for electricity generation in our country is the hydro it is very important that Water Secretariat Responsible for Water Resources Administration should be monitoring all new licenses issued for hydro power plants. Monitoring of water resources should guarantee the protection and preservation of water resources in the country, in accordance with the policies integrated in the field of water resource management. The only thermal power plant, Vlora TPP, is not yet operational, and its conversion to natural gas is foreseen following construction of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Albania imports electricity from neighboring countries, although imports have progressively dropped in the last ten years following the increase in domestic power generation and the reduction of (technical and non- 11 Albania Revised NDC technical) electricity losses in the distribution system, which have been reduced from 45% in 2013 to 28% by the end of 20168 with a clear investment and management plan to reduce them further to 17% by the end of 2022. Albania’s electricity market is under transition from a centrally planned to a market-based system. The wholesale power market is dominated by the state- owned, regulated generation company KESh, which supplies to OSHEE the electricity needed for captive customers under regulated “full supply” condition. The competitive wholesale environment consists of independent producers and a small number of large customers supplied through bilateral contracts.

2.2.3.2. BAU scenario in the energy sector (summary; more details are provided in Annex 1. Mitigation calculations (details for sectors)) In the Energy sector, consumptions are expected to increase rapidly according to economic development based on current technologies. GHG emissions for the BAU scenario increase from 4,664 kt CO2e in 2016 to 8,466 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of +81.5%. Figure 13. Projected energy-related emissions The BAU scenario is based on the most likely evolution of the Albanian energy sector according to the baseline scenario of the National Strategy of Energy approved by the Albanian Government on August 8, 2018 and with no further policy interventions. It was developed accordingly to the National Energy Strategy considering new set of macro-economic drivers such as GDP and population. LEAP was the energy model used for energy demand forecast for baseline and other scenarios for policy makers (see below for further description) taking as base year 2015 and carry out yearly energy demand until 2030. LEAP is a widely used model-building tool for analyzing energy systems in the medium to long term. LEAP is a user-friendly accounting framework that can be used to analyze the integrated energy and environment results of a baseline and alternative scenarios of the energy system as it grows over time. An Albania-LEAP model has been in use since 1997. A basic characteristic of LEAP models is that the calculation of energy demands is based on a “bottom-up” approach with many decentralized data, such as end-use energy intensities, the efficiency and penetration rates of different equipment and the demand for energy services at the residential, commercial, 8 Implementation of the project "Recovery of the Power Sector" and the recent revamping work carried out on the transmission-distribution networks during the years 2014-2020. 12 Albania Revised NDC agriculture, industry and transport sectors levels. Given these sectoral demands, LEAP software calculates the demand for primary energy sources, electricity and all other energy commodities. LEAP also calculates a variety of emissions that are generated from the fuels used. Nowadays, the Albanian economy is predominantly based on the service sector. Agriculture has also been one of the most important economic sectors in Albania. Nonetheless, during the last decade the Albanian economy has shifted towards industry and service due to increased urbanization and emigration. Consequently, the service sector is today the largest contributor to GDP, comprising around 60% of the total, followed by agriculture and manufacturing industry. All these factors have been incorporated into the Baseline sectoral demand projections. The main drivers of energy consumption in the residential sector are population and the number of households. Data on the number of persons per household in developed European countries and countries in transition show that household size decreases as the standard of living grows. The decrease occurs due to the aging of the population and the increase in the number of one- member and two-member households. In Albania, the number of persons per household is expected to decrease from 2.92 in 2014 to 2.41 in 2030. To reflect the various climatic zones in Albania, households were categorized into three zones with respect to their heating and cooling demands. Breakdown between zones is done based on the concept of Heating Degree Days according to the Albanian Energy Building Code (approved by the Albanian Council of Ministers in January 2003). Zone 1 is most of the urban centers in coastal area of Albania with heating degree days lower than 1300 °C, Zone 2 with cities with heating degree days higher than 1300 °C and lower than 2300 °C, and Zone 3 is mountainous areas with heating degree days higher than 2300 °C. The basic measure of heating standard in the model is heated area. The heated area of the average household was determined based on statistical data and calibrating with the data from the energy balance. The share of heated area in total living area (load factor) is 31% and is the result of the purchasing ability of the population, the availability of firewood, the price of electricity, and life priorities arising from tradition and cultural heritage. Therefore, with standard growth, the further increase of the share of heated area in a total area of housing units is 70% by 2030. In order to calculate the energy demand, the Service Sector was divided in two branches: Public Service and Private, or Commercial Service. The Public Service Sector is based on the traditional approach to heat demand, mainly using not efficient technologies, installations and organization, although in some recent cases new schemes have been introduced. Commercial Service Sector approach is based on rapid introduction of modern technology, but improvements are needed regarding the efficient utilization. Private Service Sector has inherited some traditional repair-service and small shops/restaurants that have neither possibility nor demand for space heating and air conditioning. Meanwhile, in many services, the private sector has experienced modern and qualitative developments. This service group includes business categories such as hotels, restaurants, banks, tourist agencies, consulting and insurance offices, etc. as well as many parallel services with the public service such as education, culture, health, etc., aiming the maximal comfort. Analysis of the energy demand is based on the general tendency of the previous period. A number of driving factors were taken into consideration as determining factors for the future energy demands. The public service buildings have as a special driving factor the total volume, divided in the heated stock and unheated stock. In order to increase the service quality, improve the working conditions and the comfort for the public administration, was forecasted that until the end of the period 2014-2030, the existing ratio would change in favour of the heated stock in 2030. The GDP growth from the service sector will be 13 Albania Revised NDC accompanied with energy demand increase due to high comfort requirements, the qualitative improvement of the services and changes of the ratio between the urban and rural populations in favour of the former. The structure of the industry sector in Albania shows that three main industrial sectors are consuming the highest share of energy: food, metal and building materials industries. Each of these industries is represented by its final energy consumption of electricity and other fuels. The growth in GDP is the most influential determinant of energy demand in industry. In addition to overall GDP growth, the value-added structure of the GDP drives the energy consumption for the industry and agriculture sectors. In the early development of a society, agriculture contributes a significant share of GDP. GDP from agriculture has been dominant in the past. As the society develops, GDP from the Agriculture sector will increase in absolute terms, but the sectoral share will remain constant in relative terms while the share of industry grows. GDP from the Service sectors will increase in absolute terms. In developed economies the dominant GDP share belongs to services, followed by industry and then agriculture. The growth in GDP is the most influential determinant of energy demand in industry. For this analysis, given that little structural changes are anticipated in the near-future, the expected contribution from agriculture is expected to remain constant at 22.7%, while the contribution from the overall industry sector to be increased from 14.9% (2014) up to 25% at 2030. The Transport Sector is the largest energy consuming sector in Albania and plays an important role in the consumption of energy resources. After 1990, there was a significant increase in the number of the transport modes, especially for road transport, which lead to a significant increase of transport activity and fuel consumption, mainly diesel and gasoline. In order to calculate the future transport energy demand, the sector was divided in two sub sectors: transport of freight and passengers. For the transport sector, two main indicators measure the demand for passenger and freight transport: passenger-km and ton-km. It is forecasted that ton-km will increase by 85% in 2030 compared to 2014, while passenger-km will increase by 37%. The vast majority of transport is undertaken by road vehicles. Albania’s transport sector has been increasing rapidly since 2000. The number of vehicles in circulation has increased and infrastructure is being improved, which leads to an ever-increasing total traffic load. The transport sector consumes significant quantities of energy (mostly in the form of diesel and gasoline). Albania will continue to remain for many years a country where the agriculture dominates. The income increase from the agricultural production, livestock, agro-industry, fishing and forestry remains the main alternative for the economic and social development of the country. The development of the agriculture sector is conditioned by many factors where the most important are: Farms are of minimal sizes and fragmented; Problems exist over arable land property rights; Farm inputs have very high prices and the distribution system for agricultural production is unorganized and inefficient; There is a lack of available agriculture crediting, and Agricultural production is insufficiently mechanized. The organisation of farms brings energy savings in the NDC scenario.

2.2.3.1. Energy NDC scenario The analysis of the Albanian Energy Sector was performed using the Albania-LEAP model results adjusted according to the latest development of the period 2014-2020, a proven tool used previously by the Albanian Government and commonly used by other countries in the region and globally. The analytical results provided quantitative metrics for assessing the likely outcomes of possible energy scenarios against the goals of this strategy. 14 Albania Revised NDC Establishment of the NDC scenario for Energy Sector was based mainly on the Albania’s Energy Sector Strategy, which is harmonized in terms of goals, energy sector details and timeline with a number of other strategic and legal documents that are in force, adopted or drafted in the same time frame as this document. Building on and complementing these documents has led to synergies in the prioritization of policies and programs and in the development of strategic recommendations. The National Strategy for the Energy Sector (2017-2030) is aligned with the following key documents:  Obligations under the Energy Community;  National Strategy for Development and Integration – 2015-2020 (Albanian Council of Ministers, 2017);  National Programs for Economic Reforms (NPER) 2015-2017 and 2016-2018 Albanian Council of Ministers, 2017);  Albanian Renewable Energy Source Action Plan (NREAP adopted by the Governmental Decree no.27, dated 20.01.2016);  1st National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2011-2018 (Government Decree no. 619, date 7.09.2011)  2nd and 3rd Albanian Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2017-2020 (Government Decree no.709, date 1.12.2017);  Intended National Determined Contribution (INDC approved by the Albanian Government on September 2015);  The Decision of the Council of Ministers (DCM) no. 519, dated 13.07.2016 “On the approval of the Market Model of the Power Sector”;  The DCM no. 125, dated 11.02.2015 “On the approval of the financial recovery plan in the power electricity sector”;  Albanian National Gas Master Plan (November 2016);  Transport Sector Strategy in Albania – Final Strategy & Action Plan (DCM No. 811, dated 16.11.2016);  Albanian Sustainable Transport Plan (Draft Jane 2016);  Law on Biofuels No 9876 (2008)  Law on Power Sector No. 43/2015, dated 30.04.2015;  Law on Renewable Energy Sources No. 7/February 2017;  Law on Hydrocarbons No. 6/February 2017;  Law on Natural Gas No.102/2015, dated 23.09.2015;  Law on Energy Efficiency No. 124/2015, dated 12.11.2015;  Law on Energy Performance in Buildings No. 116/2016, dated 10.11.2016;  Law on Climate Change  Official Albanian Energy Balance prepared from AKBN for years 2009-2019;  Official ERE Annual reports related to Power Sector Electricity Balance prepared from ERE for years 2012-2020; 15 Albania Revised NDC  CENSUS 2011 – Albanian Household Registration (INSTAT website);  GDP sectorial development 2012-2019 – (National Bank of Albania and the World Bank websites)  First National Communication of Albania to the UNFCCC (FNC – 2002);  Albania’s Second National Communication to the Conference of Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (SNC – 2009);  Albania’s Third National Communication to the Conference of Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (TNC – 2016); The following long-term strategic objectives were identified to actualize the Guiding Principles and the current commitments that have been undertaken by the Albanian government. Improving the reliability and security of energy supply; Developing the domestic primary energy sources in a sustainable and competitive manner Improving the cost-effectiveness of energy supply systems; Achieving the targets for renewable energy sources and energy efficiency established in the second National Energy Efficiency Action Plans and the National Renewable Energy Action Plan; Developing least cost and sustainable policy for residential heating and cooling Integrating the Albanian power and natural gas markets with regional Energy Community and European markets; and Achieving the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. To understand the costs and benefits of these possible policies, the following four other scenarios were developed and analyzed using the Albania-LEAP model.  Energy Efficiency (EE): This scenario assumes that Albania meets its Energy Community Treaty commitments by implementing the second National Energy Efficiency Action Plan and enforceing the Law on Energy Efficiency (together with improvement of the Law to transpose EED requirements) and the Law on Energy Performance in Buildings. EE target for 2030 has been defined to be 15%.  Renewable Energy Sources (RES): Assumes that Albania meets its Energy Community Treaty commitments of reaching a 38% renewable energy target in 2020 by implementing the Albanian National Renewable Energy Action Plan. RES target for 2030 has been defined to be 42.5%.  Natural Gas Promotion: Assumes maximum possible penetration of natural gas in line with the Gas Master Plan. Natural gas penetration rate of penetration target for 2030 has been defined to be 8-10% (National Natural Gas Master Plan). Natural gas in Albania will be mostly for guaranteeing the security of electricity supply since Albanian power sector is 100% based on the hydro resources and in electricity import.  Combined: Combines the EE, RES and Natural Gas Promotion scenarios. Under this scenario all above mentioned targets have been aggregated and guaranteeing so proper development scenario for development of energy sector until 2030. The Energy sector NDC scenario is based on Combined – Strategy scenario calibrated with real figures for the period 2015-2019. The NDC scenario takes into account the introduction of natural 16 Albania Revised NDC gas in almost all sectors (including energy industry, manufacturing industry, transport, commercial, residential and agriculture). It also considers the implementation of the different National Energy Efficiencies Actions Plans (NEEAP) to increase energy efficiencies in both supply and demand reaching a 15% gain in 2030. It also takes into account the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) with objectives of a share of 38% of renewables in the final energy consumption in 2020 (already almost reached in 2019) and 42% in 2030. Emissions for the NDC scenario (with mitigation measures) increase from 4,664 kt CO2e in 2016 to 6,544 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of +40.3%. The difference, in 2030, with the BAU scenario, is -1,921 kt CO2e representing a mitigation impact of -22.7%. Figure 14. Projections for energy sector according to BAU and NDC scenarios The following table presents a summary of the mitigation actions taken into account in the NDC scenario for this sector. The list of measures presented below is based on the list of measures presented under the Energy Strategy and all other strategic documents mentioned above. Table 2. Summary of the main mitigation actions for the energy sector N° Sector Name Subsector Policy context Description E1 Energy Energy efficiency Transport National Energy Efficient transport system: Efficiencies Increasing the share of public transport for Actions Plans passengers and freight (roads, railways and (NEEAP), NSE, waterways). Up to 2030, 30% of the road Action Plan of transport of over 300 km shall be shifted to Transport sector, other transport modalities, like the rail. Up to National Energy 2050 the goal to be achieved is 50%. Strategy 2018-2030 Energy labelling of new vehicles. E1 Energy Energy efficiency Buildings - National Energy Improving the energy performance in buildings Residential & Efficiencies keeping into account the local and climatic Tertiary Actions Plans conditions of the country, interior comfort of (NEEAP), National buildings and cost effective. Energy Renovation of public building stock each year by Strategy 2018-2030 2% of the heated /cooled area for buildings that are under administration of, or used by a public authority, or provide a public service, with a view to meeting the minimum energy performance requirements. E1 Energy Energy efficiency Power sector National Energy Reduction of transmission and distribution losses (electricity Efficiencies by promotion of distributed generation. generation, Actions Plans transmission and (NEEAP), National distribution) Energy Strategy 2018-2030 E1 Energy Energy efficiency Industry National Energy Reduction of emissions from industries based on Efficiencies energy efficiency. Actions Plans (NEEAP), National Energy Strategy 2018-2030 E2 Energy Renewable Power sector National Transition process towards diversification away Energy Renewable Energy from hydropower and promote alternative Action Plan sources of renewable energy: (NREAP), National By 2030, 42 % of renewable energy in gross final RES Action Plan energy consumption. 2019-2020 17 Albania Revised NDC E2 Energy Renewable Transport National Energy Renewable energy sources in transport: Energy Strategy 2018-2030 Goal for the share of the biofuels vs. total fuel consumption in transport sector 10% in 2020, 10% in 2025 and 10% in 2030 as compared to 3.55% in 2015. The share of electrical vehicles (EV) is increasing in the passenger cars fleet (up to 10% of passenger.km in 2030). Bicycle as Passenger travel mode is increasing (up to 5% of passenger.km in 2030). E3 Energy Penetration of Power supply Gas master plan Increasing the penetration of natural gas natural gas 2018 Development of the gas market and services in Albania based on natural gas supplied through the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP Project), as well as potential gas sources discovered and concretized in the country, or even through natural gas pipelines such as the Ionian Adriatic Pipeline (IAP Project) and the Albania - Kosovo Pipeline (ALKOGAP Project). Albania intends to develop an underground natural gas storage site in Dumre, near Elbasan (UGS Dumrea Project). The construction of the pipeline that will link the TAP project near the Fier Compressor Station area to the Vlora TPP and the entire Vlora region, will make it possible to restore the Vlora TPP by using natural gas as fuel.

2.2.4. IPPU

2.2.4.1. Overview of the IPPU sector Almost 90% of GHG emissions from industrial processes depends on the cement production. Emissions from energy consumption in the manufacturing industry are considered under the Energy sector presented above.

2.2.4.2. IPPU BAU scenario In the IPPU sector, emissions for the BAU scenario increase from 1,020 kt CO2e in 2016 to 1,854 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of +81.9%. The BAU scenario is based on the GDP trend for all sub-sectors (as considered in the GHG inventory) of the manufacturing industry except for F-gases. For F-gases, emissions are based on a model considering imports, bank, equipment market, refrigerant market share, equipment production, average characteristics of equipment. Albania has ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, in 2019. The impact is considered in the BAU. In 2030, HFCs are expected to represent about 16% of IPPU CO2e emissions. Figure 15. Projected IPPU-related emissions IPPU 2 000 1 500 GgCO2e 1 000 inventory BAU 500 0 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 18 Albania Revised NDC

2.2.4.1. IPPU NDC scenario For the IPPU sector, no additional Policies & Measure are considered. Impact of energy efficiency (EE) or fuel switch measures in the industry are taken into account in the Energy sector. BAU and NDC scenarios are therefore identical. Figure 16. Projections for IPPU sector IPPU 2 000 1 500 GgCO2e inventory 1 000 BAU 500 NDC 0 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

2.2.5. Waste

2.2.5.1. Overview of the waste sector GHG emissions of the waste sector are mainly due to landfills (in 2016, CH4 emissions from landfills represented almost 80% of total waste emissions). The waste degradation being subject to a kinetics, this induces a gap between the maximum of buried waste and the peak of emissions observed. The second sub-sector in terms of emissions is the wastewater treatment because of N2O emissions. In Albania, urban solid waste collection systems are in place in most cities. Little recycling of waste is undertaken. The principal method of disposal is dumping. There are no collection systems in rural areas and small towns. Most of the waste from these areas is disposed of by dumping in ditches, ravines, or at the side of roads where it is washed and blown onto other land and ultimately into water courses. There are some landfills already functioning in 2010 (Tirana and Shkoder Region), while the others remained at the project level (new landfills of Korce, Pogradec, Sarande, Vlore, and Durres). Except for Kavaja and Pogradec wastewater treatment plants, there are no other wastewater treatment facilities in the country. These two facilities are relatively small to make a difference and almost all used water is discharged untreated to water bodies. Albania started the construction of 3 incinerators of urban waste in Elbasan, Tirana and Fier. The first one entered in operation in 2017 to perform tests and all the incinerators should be operational in 2023. There is no segregated waste collection system in place yet, which is required by law since several years now. In the country, there are established waste recycling industries mainly for plastics and metals. 19 Albania Revised NDC

2.2.5.2. Waste BAU scenario In the Waste sector, emissions for the BAU scenario increase from 838 kt CO2e in 2016 to 966 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of +15,3%. Figure 17. Projected waste-related emissions The BAU scenario assumes a stable level of waste produced per year and per capita, a stable ratio of waste going to landfill, no methane capture installation; an amount of composted, of incinerated and of open burnt waste per inhabitant equal to the mean value of the three recent years and evolves with the population trend. The wastewater treatment forecast is based on industrial production trend (more details are provided in Annex 1. Mitigation calculations (details for sectors)).

2.2.5.3. Waste NDC scenario In the Waste sector, emissions for the NDC scenario increase from 838 kt CO2e in 2016 to 959 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of +14.5%. The difference, in 2030, with the BAU scenario, is -7 kt CO2e, which represents a mitigation impact of -0.7%. The small difference observed between the 2 scenarios can be partly explained by the degradation kinetics of the waste sent to landfills. In fact, this kinetics induces a gap between the maximum of buried waste (960 kt in 2010) and the emission peak observed (728 kt CO2e in 2024). In parallel, a strong increase of emissions associated with the development of waste incinerators in the country is considered. 20 Albania Revised NDC Figure 18. Projections for waste sector The following table presents a summary of the mitigation actions taken into account in the NDC scenario for this sector (more details are provided in Annex 1). Table 3. Summary of the mitigation actions for the waste sector N° Sector Name Subsector Policy context Description W1 Waste Reduction in the Landfilling Governmental Decree No.418, In 2030 the amount of municipal waste going amount of waste dated 27.05.2020 (National in landfill is reduced to 35% of the total going to landfill regulatory text that defines amount (by weight) of biodegradable technical and operational municipal waste produced in year 2010. requirements for waste and landfills). TNC and communications with national inventory teams W2 Waste Setting up of Landfilling Gacmo-TNC; Beginning of CH4 capture in 2025 and linear methane capture evolution until the capture of 10% of 1.34 installation million m3 of CH4 in 2030. W3 Waste Increase in the Composting Albanian Waste National Increase in the amount of composted waste amount of Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste by 85% between 2009 and 2020 then +3% composted waste projection each year until 2030. W4 Waste Stagnation of the Incineration . TNC and communications Stagnation of the total amount of clinical total amount of with national inventory teams waste incinerated. From 2017 to 2030, we clinical waste . Albanian Waste National consider that 0,04 kt of clinical waste are Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste incinerated. incinerated projection W5 Waste Increase of MSW Incineration . TNC and communications Start of MSW incineration in 2017 (only for incineration with national inventory teams testing) and gradual increase between 2021 . Albanian Waste National and 2030. Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste 2017: start projection 2017 - 2018: +100% 2018 - 2019: +50% 2019 - 2020: +33% 2020 - 2021: +25% 2021 - 2030: +27 079% W6 Waste Decrease in the Open burning Albanian Waste National Decrease of waste open burned in proportion amount of waste Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste to the quantity of waste not collected in the burned in open projection country. 2016 – 2017: -31% fires. 2016 – 2020: -76% 2016 – 2030: -74% W7 Waste Wastewater Wastewater TNC and communications with No evolution regarding wastewater treatment treatment in rural treatment national inventory teams methods in rural areas. areas Increase of the rate of connection of the urban population to shallow anaerobic lagoons. 2009: 1.63% 2016: 1.71% 2017: 1.73% 2020: 1.76% 2025: 1.82% W8 Waste Wastewater Wastewater TNC and communications with Increase of the total industry product treatment in treatment national inventory teams evolution until 2030 estimated from national industry data and the GDP growth rate (except for Petroleum Refineries, data provide from energy sector). The following data are respectively about 2016 and 2030. 21 Albania Revised NDC Beer & Malt (t/yrs): 862 026 - 1 366 209 Dairy Products (t/yrs): 108 988 - 172 734 Meat & Poultry (t/yrs): 159 819 - 253 295 Pulp & Paper (t/yrs): 2 327 - 3 688 Wine & Vinegar (t/yrs): 22 420 - 35 533 W9 Waste Increase of Wastewater Food and Agriculture Increase of the annual per capita protein protein treatment Organization of the United consumption estimated from FAOSTAT data. consumption Nations (FAO) - Statistics 2016: 35,04 kg/person/yr Division (ESS) 2017: 43,11 kg/person/yr 2018: 42,22 kg/person/yr 2019-2030: 40,12 kg/person/yr

2.2.6. Agriculture

2.2.6.1. Overview of the Agriculture sector Agriculture emissions are mostly driven by the livestock population. The main sources of emissions are methane emissions from enteric fermentation and from manure management. Historical data about livestock population is available, for the period 2009 to 2016, from the national inventory; and for the period 2017 to 2019, from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The decreasing emissions between 2016 and 2020 comes from these data sources. Figure 19. Share of emission sources of the agriculture sector (2016)

2.2.6.2. Agriculture BAU scenario The trend between 2019 and 2030 is based on an interpolation between 2030 values used in Albania’s Third National Communication (TNC) and the FAO values from 2019. The assumption from the TNC is an increase in most of the livestock populations (except for sheep, goats, horses, mule and asses) in line with the objective of promoting the Albanian agricultural production. It is assumed a constant animals’ feeding and associated productivity, and a constant distribution of animals per manure management systems. For the calculation of nitrogen from crop residues, the analysis considers stable areas per types of crops, except for wheat, which is decreasing, and makes hypothesis regarding the increasing evolution of the average yield of these crops. The mineral fertilization projection is based on the evolution of area of total cropland (in line with FOLU sector), assuming that the average nitrogen rate is constant for the BAU scenario. Assumptions of stability have been made regarding other nitrogen inputs. The area of 22 Albania Revised NDC histosols is assumed stable. For crop residues burning, data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) are taken into account for the period 2009-2018. Average rate of burning for wheat during this know period (2009-2018) equals 1.3% and is maintained for the whole period (2019-2030). For pasture burning, the average area burnt for 2009-2018 (5,154 ha) has been used for projected years (more details are provided in Annex 1. Mitigation calculations (details for sectors)). In the Agriculture sector, emissions for the BAU scenario decrease from 2,344 kt CO2e in 2016 to 2,140 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of -8.7%. However, the decreases from 2016 to 2019 is given through FAO datasets, and the projection for BAU considers a small increase from 2020 to 2030, in line with livestock population projected for the TNC. Figure 20. Projected agriculture-related emissions Agriculture 2 500 2 000 Gg CO2e 1 500 inventory 1 000 BAU 500 0 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

2.2.6.3. Agriculture NDC scenario As for the BAU scenario, the decreases from 2016 to 2019 is based on FAO datasets, and the projection considers a small increase from 2020 to 2030, in line with livestock population projected in the TNC. Additional mitigation measures considered in Agriculture allow an improvement of fertilization, pasture, and animal feeding practices (see table 3.). However, these actions have little impact considering the importance of livestock population in the emissions. In line with the national strategy, and considering the national economic circumstances, the aim is an increase in production, no decrease of livestock population, and an increase in yields. This explains that emissions for the NDC scenario for this sector (with mitigation measures) decrease from 2,344 kt CO2e in 2016 to 2,071 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of -11.6%. The difference, in 2030, with the BAU scenario, is -68 kt CO2e, which represents a limited mitigation impact of -3.2%. 23 Albania Revised NDC Figure 21. Projections for agriculture sector Agriculture 2 500 2 000 Gg CO2e 1 500 inventory 1 000 BAU NDC 500 0 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 The following table presents a summary of the mitigation actions taken into account in the NDC scenario for this sector (more details are provided in Annex 1). Table 4. Summary of the mitigation actions for the agriculture sector N° Sector Name Subsector Policy context Description A1 Agriculture Promoting the Livestock and CAP / EU’s Rural Increase in production, no Albanian agricultural crop production Development decrease of livestock population, production and Policy; NSDI-II; increase in yields competitiveness NTP A2 Agriculture Improving nitrogen Crop production CAP / EU’s Rural The impact of the actions A2 fertilization by Development and A3 is a reduction of the applying the right rate Policy; ECCS; average rate of mineral fertilizer NSDI-II; NTP; spread on crops. We assume ISARD; IPARD; that this average rate will TNC decrease by 10% between 2019 and 2030. This action leads to the reduction of mineral fertilization type through best practices. A3 Agriculture Improving nitrogen Crop production CAP / EU’s Rural Improving nitrogen fertilization fertilization by Development by applying the right source of applying the right Policy; ECCS; nitrogen, promoting organic source NSDI-II; NTP; amendments and crops residues ISARD; IPARD; instead of mineral fertilizers. The TNC impact of the actions A2 and A3 is a reduction of the average rate of mineral fertilizer spread on crops. We assume that this average rate will decrease by 10% between 2019 and 2030. Furthermore, we consider that other mineral fertilizers than urea could be used, thus we consider a reduction of 50% of the urea spread between 2019 and 2030. Complementary to action A3, this action lead also to reduction of mineral fertilizer through alternative solutions. A4 Agriculture Increasing the time Livestock TNC This action applies only to cattle. spent in pasture In 2016, dairy cows spend 18% of their time in pasture. We consider that in 2030, they will spend 25% of their time grazing. In 2016, other cattle spend 20% of their time in pasture. We consider that in 2030, they will spend 25% of their time grazing. This action increase carbon sequestration in pasture and decreases emissions of N2O. 24 Albania Revised NDC A5 Agriculture Optimizing animal Livestock NSDI-II; ISARD; Improved feeding techniques for feeding in order to IPARD animal in housing (where reduce N2O and CH4 feeding can be controlled). This emissions action applies only to cattle livestock in housing in 2030, at different application rates. The improved feeding techniques lead to: - A decrease in nitrogen excretion rate (N inputs from feeding fitting better to animal needs). We assume a 10% reduction for improved feeding. - A decrease in enteric CH4 (add of fat in feeding): according to the GACMO tool, this can lead to a reduction of 4% of CH4 emissions for 1% of fat added.

2.2.7. FOLU

2.2.7.1. Overview of the FOLU sector In the FOLU sector, emissions (mainly carbon losses from the harvest of fuelwood, wood, and forest fires) are bigger than absorptions (the growth of forest biomass). Therefore, this sector does not represent a net sink. During the historical period, fuelwood harvested quantities did not vary much (around 1 million m3/y), and forest growth remained stable. On the other hand, there is a large magnitude of variation for forest fires, with one peak in 2011-2012 and another in 20179. While the main driver of the sector and for the projections remains the forest, agricultural land also presents mitigation potential that has been taken into account.

2.2.7.2. FOLU BAU scenario The BAU scenario for FOLU sector considers the continuation of the situation and trends of the recent decade covered by the inventory, in particular in terms of trends for land-use change areas, wood and fuelwood harvests (stable, as in the 2009-2016 period). For wildfires, EFFIS data is used for 2017-2018, and it explains the second peak in 2017. Forest fires episodes, which happen at irregular times, cannot be projected: only a background level was projected, based on the whole period without considering exceptional episodes. it is assumed an increasing probability of fires for this background level, with a linear increase (more details are provided in Annex 1. Mitigation calculations (details for sectors)). In the FOLU sector, emissions for the BAU scenario increase from 1,319 kt CO2e in 2016 to 1,772 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of +34.3%. Figure 22. Projected FOLU-related emissions 9 datasets were available outside of the historical period for some subsectors, such as the wildfires for the years 2017-2019. Therefore, in this case, inventory calculations continue after 2016, to 2019, and then projections assumptions start. That is why there are peaks in the period 2017-2019. 25 Albania Revised NDC

2.2.7.3. FOLU NDC scenario In the FOLU sector, emissions for the NDC scenario (with mitigation measures) decrease from 1,319 kt CO2e in 2016 to 598 kt CO2e in 2030, which represents an evolution of -54.7%. The difference, in 2030, with the BAU scenario, is -1,174 kt CO2e, which represents a mitigation impact of -66.2%. As for the NDC scenario, big forest fires episodes caused the two peaks (2011-2012 and 2017) and such episodes could not be projected. However, it is considered, in line with the national policy (Draft Environmental Cross-cutting Strategy), that an effort is put to avoid such episodes through the improvement of the monitoring system to prevent wildfires. In addition to this action regarding the prevention of wildfires, other mitigation measures are considered in the NDC scenario: the diminution of the use of fuelwood (the assumption on fuelwood consumption being estimated in the Energy sector, so that FOLU and Energy sectors are consistent); new afforestation areas; improved efficiency of fuelwood harvest; improved sustainable management of forests, cropland and grassland to enhance carbon sequestration and protect biodiversity. Figure 23. Projections for FOLU sector The following table presents a summary of the mitigation actions taken into account in the NDC scenario for this sector (details in annex). 26 Albania Revised NDC Table 5. Summary of the mitigation actions for the FOLU sector N° Sector Name Subsector Policy Description context L1 FOLU Energy: changes Forest land - ECCS, The evolution of fuelwood harvest is directly in fuel mix, fuelwood NSDI-II, consistent with projections applied in the Energy reduction of use SPDBP sector regarding the evolution of fuel mix. The of fuelwood. fuelwood consumption increases by 14% Moratorium on between 2016 and 2030 in the BAU scenario, fuelwood while it decreases by 4% in the NDC scenario. In 2030, the application of this measure allows a reduction of the annual emission estimated at - 314 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. L2 FOLU New afforestation Forest land ECCS, NTP, Based on national circumstances, and areas ISARD, TNC considering the current trends, potential for afforestation areas is estimated at 300 ha per year. In 2030, the application of this measure allows a reduction of the annual emission estimated at -7 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. L3 FOLU Improved Forest land - ECCS While it is not possible to predict future episodes management and disturbances & of wildfires, the improvement of monitoring and monitoring to biomass management of forest fires will help reduce this prevent wildfires burning risk. While the BAU scenario considers a mean risk of forest fires at 10 000 ha / year (less than bigger episodes but slightly higher than the other years to represent an increasing risk), the NDC considers a progressive reduction of 5% of this risk. In 2030, the application of this measure allows a reduction of the annual emission estimated at - 251 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. Exceptional events that cannot be predicted are excluded from the calculation. A background level is calculated, in line with the way Natural disturbances are treated in the Kyoto Protocol or the EU FOLU regulation. Albania pledge to continue efforts to reduce the scope and intensity of wildfires. This exclusion of big events from the projection is made for both BAU and NDC scenario so it does not lead to a discrepancy between the NDC and the BAU. Moreover, in the NDC scenario, the prevention of wildfires for the background level is progressive and only reaches 5% in 2030 (compared to the BAU scenario). L4 FOLU Improving Forest land - NSDI-II, Improving the efficiency on use of fuelwood efficiency of fuelwood NEEAP, results in a decrease in wood dumpings. fuelwood harvest dumpings - TNC In 2030, the application of this measure allows a disturbances reduction of the annual emission estimated at - 145 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. L5 FOLU Improved Forest land - ECCS; Improved forestry management, applied sustainable forest growth NSDI-II; progressively on 5000ha per year, allows a management NTP; IPARD; higher growth rate for the tree biomass in these LANFPF; areas. SPDBP; In 2030, the application of this measure allows a PDFS reduction of the annual emission estimated at - 18 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. L6 FOLU Improved Grassland ECCS; In the NDC scenario, grassland soil is improved sustainable LANFPF; by additional inputs from agricultural grassland NCCS management (livestock management, more management to inputs, as seen in Agriculture sector). enhance carbon In 2030, the application of this measure allows a sequestration and reduction of the annual emission estimated at - protect 202 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. biodiversity L7 FOLU Improved Cropland ECCS; Development of agroforestry is projected to be sustainable NSDI-II: progressively increasing to 100ha in 2030. cropland NCCS Improvement of agricultural soil practices help management storing carbon in soils in areas that increase progressively to 20% of cultivated cropland in 2030. In 2030, the application of this measure allows a 27 Albania Revised NDC reduction of the annual emission estimated at - 167 kt CO2e compared to the BAU scenario. 3. ADAPTATION The projected changes in temperature, rainfall and sea-level (see section 4.2 below) will affect every Albanian region and every socio-economic sector in a specific way, depending on its own characteristics. On adaptation, this document focuses on the Albanian coastal area and the capital Tirana, which comprises a significant proportion of the population, as well as key infrastructure and is the main touristic destination in the country. Indeed, while within the Albanian coast climate change will affect every socio-economic sector, on adaptation this document focuses on settlements, populations and tourism. More specifically, on settlements the document considers the infrastructure and the built environment, water and energy; on populations, it considers lives and livelihoods and health; and on tourism, it considers changes in the touristic season and the touristic conditions. In addition, the Albanian agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is analysed in great detail. Building on section 1 on national circumstances, this section on adaptation is structured in the following way. Section 4.1 introduces the Albanian coast and agriculture. Section 4.2 presents climate variability and change in Albania regarding temperature, precipitation and sea level rise. Section 4.3 analyses climate risks, impacts and vulnerability for the four priority sectors, namely settlements, populations, tourism and AFOLU. Finally, section 4.4 categorizes and prioritizes climate change adaptation measures.

3.1. The Albanian coast and AFOLU sector - background

3.1.1. The Albanian Coast

3.1.1.1. Overview The main part of the coastal area (the Adriatic coast and the most southern part of the Ionian coast –that belong to the Zone A in Map 1) is located in the Mediterranean field climatic Zone. The other part of the Ionian coast, in Zone B in Map 2, belongs to the Mediterranean Southern Mountainous climatic Subzone. Overall, the coast is warmer than the interior of the country. In the coastal area, maximum temperatures average 21.8°C in the summer and 14.6°C in the winter.10 The centre of the coast gets less rain than the North and the Southwest (with the Southeast being the least rainy). Albanian coasts are rich with sandy and rocky shores and include important ecosystems. Although the number of protected areas in the coast has increased over the years (there are 10 World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, accessed January 2020 and 4NC 28 Albania Revised NDC currently eleven protected areas including a marine protected area), the coastal ecosystems are still facing significant risks and pressures, including:  Deficiencies in waste management (waste from tourism facilities is reaching the coastal waters, and plastic litter accounts for more than 90% of the total solid waste found on beaches);  Unplanned tourism development and urbanization, and unmanaged urban population increase;  Not integrated coastal zone management by local authorities; and  Climate change impacts, which are further described in section 4.3 below. According to the Integrated cross-sectoral plan for the coastal belt, coastal rivers are significantly polluted: water quality was poor or bad in 45% of the 22 water quality monitoring stations in the coast.

3.1.1.2. Coastal settlements & demography The coastal region occupies 36.7% of the surface area of the country and has 39.3% of the population. The Integrated cross-sectoral plan for the coastal belt (ICSP) identifies the four following coastal spatial belts, as shown in Error! Reference source not found. below:  The first belt, Zone A, is characterised by its urban development and tourism infrastructure and is known as “sun-sea belt”. The cities composing this zone are Durres, Vlora, Lezha, Saranda, Velipoja, Himara, Ksamili and Divjaka. Although technically not a coastal city, Tirana is sometimes considered as such, given its proximity to the coastline and the functional links with coastal city of Durres, which constitutes the main port of the country. The Tirana – Durres region comprises 8.4% of the territory and accommodates 37% of the country’s population. In 2015, this region generated 48% of the national GDP and represented the region with the highest income per capita, which is 1.32 times more than the national average.  The second belt, Zone B, can be defined as the agricultural belt, includes vast field areas and low hills, and is composed of cities of secondary importance regarding the coastline (such as Shkodra, Fushe-Kruja, Tirana, Kavaja, Lushnja, Fieri and other smaller areas). Agricultural land represents 24% of the coastal territory. Farmers traditionally produce vegetables, potatoes, and fruits (olives, citrus, grape vines, etc). In some areas, production is possible all year long.  The third belt, Zone C, includes cities and residences that are more in depth of the territory, that have important cultural, heritage, folkloric, polyphonic, music, arts values. Cities of this zone are Kruja, Elbasan, Berat, Tepelena, Permet and Gjirokastra; and  The fourth belt, Zone D, which is the maritime space. rich in flora and fauna, underwater resources of the bottom of the sea, including beaches, ports and their terrestrial territories, lagoons, estuaries, lakes, water, which communicate with the sea. 29 Albania Revised NDC Map 1. The four coastal belts Source: Integrated Cross-sectorial Plan for the Coast, NATP, 2015 The coastal zone has faced a chaotic development since the 1990s following an important immigration from the rest of the country (east to west). The coastal population density increased significantly for the last 2 decades, with about 1 million more residents in the period. This development resulted in many challenges including unemployment and poverty in rural areas; overpopulation in and expansion of coastal cities; habitation development conflicting with common urban, natural and cultural areas and with agricultural land; weak transport, water, sanitation and energy infrastructures; and limited provision of/access to services. Currently, water supply is available in almost 80% of the urban areas and 50% in the rural areas (national level). Wastewater coverage is approximately 80% for the urban areas and 10% for the rural ones. At the national level, all energy supply is from hydropower, which covers 80 to 90% of the internal demand for energy, with 95% from 6 plants. However, 40% of the energy is lost in the distribution network, because of distance and poor state of the infrastructure. Only 35.4% of 30 Albania Revised NDC the hydro potential is being used, and the potential for solar energy and others is not yet exploited.11

3.1.1.3. Tourism According to the National Tourism Strategy (2019), in 2017 tourism directly contributed to 8.5% of the GDP (2017), and indirectly (multiplier effects) to 26.2%. It is growing and is projected to reach 9.3% of GDP by 2028. It employed 7.7% of total labour force in 2017, and possibly 8.8% by 202812. The different tourism locations along the coast are illustrated in Map 3 in Annex 2. Adaptation Tourism is however an underdeveloped sector in Albania in view of its potential, hindered by its limited infrastructure and accommodation capacities, standards and quality of services, tourism offer and products, and cooperation and coordination among the players who are or could be an integral part of the industry. Being dependent from summer tourism (starting from June-July, with a maximum number of visitors achieved in August and with an immediate decline in September), the majority of hotels and accommodations in the coastal areas are faced with seasonal functioning difficulties and as such, the phenomena of seasonal migration of habitants of coastal areas, especially in the South regions, is still evident. Even though archaeology and cultural heritage is not the main drive to attract foreign or domestic visitors, these are identified as priorities in developing the tourism sector in the country and the coastal zone13.

3.1.2. AFOLU Crops Agriculture accounts for about one-fifth of the gross domestic product. 50% of rural population is engaged in agriculture. The agriculture sector is dominated by small and family farms, with an average farm size of about 1.2 ha. A high level of agricultural land fragmentation remains one of the major challenges in the sector. The climatic conditions of the country allow the cultivation of cereals, fruits, vegetables, and fodder crops. About 35% of the arable land is cultivated for cereals, 8 % for vegetables, 50% for fodder crops and 7 % for other types of plants. In the last ten years the area under wheat has decreased by about 22% and the average yield stayed at the same level. The yields of maize, vegetables, fodder, fruits and grapes have increased by 8-12%. Despite the favourable climatic conditions and abundant water resources, the crops sector in Albania remains relatively underdeveloped and faces a number of challenges, including low productivity; limited area of cultivation; highly fragmented land ownership; low level of 11 Albania’s Integrated cross-sectorial plan for the coastal belt, 2015 12 Albania’s National Tourism Strategy 2019-2030 (p. 5). The date for the contribution to employment is uncertain – the document says “currently”, so it can be assumed it was in 2019. 13 Albania’s National Tourism Strategy 2019-2023. 31 Albania Revised NDC mechanization; negative climate impacts, especially flood and drought conditions; and low level of phytosanitary controls that limits agricultural export. Livestock Livestock production contributes more than 50% of the agriculture production value. Within the livestock sector, the primary output is cow milk followed by bovine meat. With regard to milk and dairy products in Albania is almost self-sufficient (at the level of 95%), while the eggs production has a surplus and eggs are exported to Italy, Croatia and Kosovo. At the same time, about 40% of meat consumed is imported. Livestock population is differently distributed across the country: in the lowland areas, cattle are the dominant livestock type, while in hilly and mountainous areas, small ruminants (sheep and goats) dominate. From 1997 to 2019 the number of ruminant species has declined, and the population of swine and poultry remained almost stable. The barriers towards more efficient livestock sector include small farm size; land fragmentation; broken rolling relief; poor infrastructure; limited availability of rural credit to farmers, processors and other small rural businesses; and inadequate rural institutions, especially extension services. Forests Forests cover around 36% of the land area in Albania with “high” forests covering 32.4%, coppice 46.2% and shrubs 21.4% of the forest area. The total forest area has declined since 1938, from 1.385 million hectares to 1.051 million hectares in 2018. During the last decades, forests have experienced significant changes in their area and standing volume. During 2007-2019, the forest volume was reduced from 73.641 million cubic meters in 2009 to 57.7 million in 2018 or by 22%. The main negative factors are a lack of forest management capacity, illegal logging, and forest fires. During 2007-2019 about 337,800 ha of forests were burned, which constitutes around 33% of the national forest area. Almost all the forest fires have anthropogenic origin. Also, such species as black pine, chestnut, plane, oaks and box-tree are suffering from the damages caused by diseases and pests. Firewood is an important commodity for Albania because it is used for heating many households. In rural areas it is also used for cooking and water heating. Albanian forests have uneven age structure with predominantly young stands, which leaves limited timber volume to harvest. There are some limited areas of old-growth forests (mainly beech), but they are part of protected areas, where harvesting is prohibited. The Albanian forest age is relatively young and there is a strong need for improved forest management. Currently, 96% of the forest is owned by municipalities and the National Agency of Protected Areas and the rest is privately owned. In 2016, the Government of Albania transferred forest management (except protected areas) to 61 municipalities. Also, since 2016 there is a moratorium on forest harvesting with exception of harvesting by local governments to meet the needs of households and large public building users. Pastures and Meadows Pastures are defined as areas larger than 0.5 ha with herbaceous and dwarf species. The total pasture area in Albania is about 480,800 ha. The pasture area per capita varies widely among the districts from 0.009 ha/capita for Durres to 0.83 for Kolonje. About 50% of the pastures are owned by private individuals, about 44% by the state and only 6 % by local communities. There are about 60% summer pastures and 40% are winter pastures. The vast majority of the pastures are natural pastures; only a single pasture is defined as cultivated. A high percentage of the pastures are located on steep or very steep slopes (almost 80%) and only about 20% are on 32 Albania Revised NDC undulating terrain, posing some limitation on the management of the pasture resources. Most of the pasture areas show erosion signs with about 60% overutilized. About 50% of the pastures are at an altitude of less than 1000m, 50% are above 1000m. The grazing intensity has a definite influence on the sustainability of grazing, depending on carrying capacity and pasture conditions. More than 73% of the pastures are grazed moderately and 23% -- are being grazed heavily. Water supply is important for providing drinking water for the animals. Only 25% of pastures have a water source closer than 1 km, for almost 30% the closest water supply is more than 3 km away. Lagoons and Wetlands Wetlands and lagoons are an important element of Albania’s ecosystem diversity. Most of them are located along the coastal area of Adriatic and Ionian seas (Viluni, Kune Vain, Patok, Karavasta, Narta Orikum and Butriknti lagoons), as well as along the big lakes (Prespa, Ohrid and Shkodra Lakes). Many lagoons and wetlands a part of the Protected Areas Network, which covers 524,322.70 ha, or 18.24% of the total territory. Albania has four Ramsar sites: “Lagoon of Karavastasë-Pisha e Divjakës”, “Kanali i Çukës- Butrint-Kepi i Stillos”, “Lake Shkodra-Buna river”, “Lake of Prespa” with a total of 98180 ha. In Adriatic coast Divjaka and Karavasta lagoons are located, comprising the most important protected area along the Albania’s coastal space. The Karavasta Lagoon ranks among the lagoons of great importance providing habitat of over 20,000 wintering birds. The lagoon is known for the large colony of the curly pelican (Pelecanus crispus), the only coastal nesting point of Albania. Uncontrolled hunting remains the major risk factor for rare birds. Periodic hunting ban has led to a noticeable increase of the colony of pelicans, even flamingos (Phoenicopterus roseus) in Narta and Kune Vain. Coastal waters and lagoons as well as freshwater ecosystems have additional economic value as recreational fishing and hunting spots. Aquaculture and Fisheries Albania is rich in water resources, with a coastline of 476 km, where fishing activities take place in the 12 miles zone. Fishing activities are mainly concentrated on the continental shelf (on the Adriatic side in the north extends to 25 miles and 2–4 miles in the Ionian Sea). There is a gradual increasing trend of the average annual per capita consumption of fisheries and aquaculture products from 4.9 kg/year in 2010 to 5.3 kg/year in 2016. Today fisheries (including capture fisheries and aquatic organisms farming) take an important place in the Albanian economy, even though the contribution of the sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is relatively low (0.3%). The sector has a good growth potential to be exploited through formulation and adoption of appropriate policies sustained by efficient investments. Marine fisheries (represented by Large Scale Fisheries - LSF) provide more than 52% of the catch and 61% of the value with coastal areas, lagoons and inland waters (Small Scale Fisheries – SSF) yielding respectively 21% of the production, but only 13% of the value. The aquaculture sectors have been increasing in importance with 27% of the production and 26% of the value. The total full-time employment in the fisheries and aquaculture sector is estimated at more than 4200 persons with a significant number of women employed by the processing industry and ancillary services. The fish processing industry is represented by almost 20 companies involved in processing seafood mainly for the EU markets. The export of fish and seafood is quadrupling in comparison to 2013, while for instance in 2019 the value of Albanian fish exports reached 100 million euros and during the first six months of 2020, it was recorded a further increase of 24.5%. The development of the aquaculture sector has followed the domestic consumer demand, especially for marine 33 Albania Revised NDC finfish products. Nevertheless, the import of marine aquaculture products (European sea bass and gilthead sea bream) is still insufficient to cover the domestic demand. The main problems faced by aquaculture sector are related to a lack of national inputs. For instance, the fish feed is mainly imported from Italy, France, Germany and Turkey.

3.2. Climate variability and change The climate change projections presented in this document are based on a set of scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, 2014) using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMPI5). The four scenarios used are called the “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) and are based on different emission pathways. This goes from RCP2.6 which assumes a peak of 490 parts per million (PPM) CO2 equivalent before 2100 (followed by a decline), which corresponds to what is known as the “2°C world”, to RCP 8.5, which involves more than 1370 PPM CO2 equivalent by 2100 and continued increase, also known as the “4°C world”. The reference period for the projections is 1986-2005. The projections used in the document come mostly from the following sources:  Annex 4.3 to Albania’s Third National Communication (2016), which provides temperature and precipitation projections for 2050 and 2100 based on RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using SimClim2013.  The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), which provides temperature and precipitation projections until 2100. Data used is for an ensemble of models.  Other sources14, also based on the AR5 methodology, are used as relevant. Graphs, figures and maps pertaining to this section are available in Annex 2. Adaptation, section 7.6.

3.2.1. Temperature Temperature records since 1901 indicate that average yearly temperatures for Albania remained between 11 and 12°C for most of the century. Since 1998, the rolling average has remained above 12°C, and is in a clear increasing path, with 2016 average at 12.72°C. Projected trends indicate that the mean annual temperature in Albania will increase between 1.3°C and 2.2 °C by 2050 and between 1.2°C and 4.4°C by 2100 from the 1986-2005 baseline of 11.8°C. The most significant increases would take place between June and September (5.8°C under RCP 8.5) (Error! Reference source not found.), bringing15 mean summer temperature around 27°C by 2100. Error! Reference source not found. illustrates the distribution of average maximum and minimum temperatures, across the country. In the Albanian Coast, annual average temperatures are expected to increase for all seasons. As shown in the 4NC and Error! Reference source not found. below, in summer months, maximum temperatures would increase between 1.5°C (RCP 2.6) and 6.4°C (RCP 8.5) 14 These other sources are cited in footnotes when relevant. They include specific studies on the Vjosa Basin or the Driji-Mati delta, for example. 15 World Bank CCKP, 2020. 34 Albania Revised NDC by 2100. In winter months, minimum temperatures could increase between 0.9°C (RCP 2.6) and 3.8°C (RCP 8.5). The mean summer temperature in coastal areas could therefore be above 25°C by 2050 and around 30°C by 2100.16 Table 6. Changes in mean temperatures, annual and seasonal for Albanian coast Source: TNC The frequency of extremely high temperatures is expected to increase, as a significant decrease in return periods for maximum temperatures is also projected, meaning that temperatures of 38.1°C that occurred every 100 years in Tirana would be occurring every 9.2 years (RCP 2.6) or 3.6 years (RCP 8.5). In Fier (centre), the return period for 3 consecutive days with extreme temperatures above 40.5°C is expected to decrease from once every 30 years (approx.) to once every 6 to 8 years. Inversely, the return periods for extremely low temperatures is expected to increase. In Lezhe (North), average annual maximum temperatures are projected to increase from 29°C to 31°C (RCP 2.6) to 37°C (RCP 8.5) by 210017. An increase in the number of tropical nights (>20°C) is also projected, from a median of 1.3 tropical night/year between 1986 and 2005 to between 10 (RCP 2.6) and 70 (RCP 8.5) by 2100 18. As a consequence, the number and duration of heat waves is expected to increase. As illustrated in Error! Reference source not found., the Warm Spell Duration Index, which measures uninterrupted sequences of six days with temperatures above the 95th percentile of the 1986- 2005 baseline, is expected to increase significantly by 2050 according to all scenarios, with a median between 20 and 41 days, up from 2.5 days.

3.2.2. Precipitation Mean precipitation levels have remained relatively stable since 1901, although with a slight decreasing trend. By 2050, precipitation for Albania is expected to decrease between 2.1% (RCP 2.6) and 4.3% (RCP 8.5) from the 1986-2005 baseline of 929.7 mm. By 2100, in a 2°C world, 16 TNC, 2016. 17 Ibid. 18 World Bank CCKP, 2020. 35 Albania Revised NDC precipitation would have decreased by 1.8% (less than by 2050), while under a 4°C world, it would have decreased by 12.2%.19 Annual precipitation in coastal Albania is expected to decrease between 1.6 to 2.9% by 2050, and by 1.6 to 7.1% by 2100. Precipitation is expected to decrease the most during summer months (8.7 to 38.1% by 2100). However, precipitation would increase during winter months, between 1.8 to 3.2% by 2050 and between 1.8 to 7.8% by 2100. Combined with warmer temperatures, this increase means that more precipitation will be in the form of rain rather than snow, causing river flows to increase in the winter and decrease in the spring, summer and fall.20 Variability of precipitation is expected to increase in the Albanian coastal area, with an increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events. Return periods for such events are expected to decrease (all scenarios), with events involving rainfall of 161 mm that occur every 100 years expected to occur every 60 to 75 years in Tirana. These could cause floods, especially during fall, winter and spring months. During summer months, the combined increase in heavy rainfall events and the decrease in rainfall averages indicate that the frequency of droughts is projected to increase. For Albania, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which considers changes in the mean of 12-month cumulative water balance, taking into account evapotranspiration, is expected to decrease by a median of 0.34 to 2.08 by 2100, indicating negative and worsening water balance conditions, especially in the South of the country (Error! Reference source not found.).21 19 World Bank CCKP, 2020. 20 TNC 21 World Bank CCKP, 2020. 36 Albania Revised NDC Figure 24. Projected change in SPEI for Albania (median and range) (RCP 8.5) Source: World Bank CCKP, 2020.

3.2.3. Sea-level rise (SLR) Global mean sea level is rising increasingly fast as a result of climate change. Sea level anomalies registered since 1993 reveal a trend for an increase in sea level for the coast of Albania. SLR projections for the whole Albanian coast are not available. Projections for the Drini- Mati River Delta (North) indicate that sea level could increase anywhere from 45 cm (RCP 2.6) to 60 cm (RCP 8.5) by 2100, while projections for the Vjosa basin (South) indicate increases between 25 and 105 cm by 2100. Globally, there is medium confidence that an increase by 2°C of global temperatures would lead to an increase of 0.3 to 1.00 m of the global mean sea level relative to 1986-2005. By 2100, 70% of coastlines worldwide should experience SLR within +/- 20% of the global range.22

3.3. Climate change risks, impacts and vulnerability

3.3.1. Overview The current and projected changes in climate will have effects on meteorological and environmental conditions in Albania, as described in Error! Reference source not found.. While mean temperature increases, decrease in precipitation and SLR will have several effects in the long term. These changes will also result in increased frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters. Table 7. Summary of climate changes and related effects/risks by 2100 Factor Area Change Extent (by 2100) Effects/Risks Temperature Albania Increase in mean annual +1.2-4.4°C (Summer: +1.- Increased evaporation temperature, especially 5.8°C) Increase in cooling 22 IPCC https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Section 3.3.9 37 Albania Revised NDC for summer months degree days Albanian Increase in minimum and Summer max: +1.5-6.4°C Increased proportion of coast maximum temperature (all winter precipitation in the Winter min: +0.9-3.8°C form of rain (instead of seasons) snow) Albanian Increase in the frequency Decrease in return period Increased frequency of coast of extremely high from 100 years to 9.2 – droughts temperatures 3.6 years (Tirana example) Albania Increase in the number of From 1 to 10-70/year tropical nights Albania Increase in the number +17.5 – 38.5 days (by and duration of heat 2050) waves Precipitation Albanian Decrease in annual -1.6 to -7.1% coast precipitation, especially for summer months Albanian Increase in precipitation +1.8 to +7.8% Increased occurrence of coast for winter months floods, especially during winter, but also during fall Albanian Increased variability of Decrease in return period and spring months coast precipitation, with from 100 years to 60-75 increased frequency and years (Tirana example) intensity of heavy rainfall events Albanian Decreasing 12-month -034 to -2.08 Increased frequency of coast/ cumulative water balance droughts Albania (SPEI) Decreased annual river runoff (Vjosa basin) SLR Albanian Increase in sea level Vjosa basin: on average Salinization of coastal coast +45 cm (RCP 4.5) to +60 aquifers cm (RCP 8.5) Increased vulnerability of coastal areas to floods from storm surges and erosion

3.3.2. Risks to and vulnerabilities of settlements Infrastructure and built environment Projected changes in precipitation patterns during winter, fall and spring months increase the risk of river floods. In the Seman-Vjosa area (Vjosa basin), embankments and pumping stations installed to prevent floods have already been overcome in recent years, causing catastrophic damages to settlements.23 Due to their flatness, coastal areas are not only vulnerable to the projected increased floods from rivers, but also those from storm surges due to SLR. The size and magnitude of floods and of erosion of coastal areas are expected to increase, affecting disproportionately beaches, river mouths and lagoons24 and causing landslides. According to the FNC, shoreline could regress between 7.5 and 15m by 2100. In the Vjosa mouth, coastal erosion 23 Laçi, E. Draft report for V&A assessment for population, settlements and tourism sectors, 4NC, 2021. 24 Ibid 38 Albania Revised NDC will be enhanced by the interruption of the supply of fine sediments from the river, once (and if) the projected hydroelectric dams are constructed upstream.25 A significant portion of Albania’s infrastructure is located in its coastal area and could therefore be affected, including:  Housing: as of 2016, there were 41,625 dwellings currently built within 0.5 meters above sea level26  Public infrastructure: bridges, roads, medical centres, schools, power plants, sewage plants, waste treatment plants  Industrial and commercial buildings: banks, factories, warehouses, mills  Historic and cultural sites (including UNESCO World Heritage sites)  Agricultural land Table 8. Types of risks facing coastal municipalities Municipality Seawater Coastal Coastal floods River floods Landslides intrusion erosion Shkodra X X Lehze X X X X Kurbin X X X X Durres X X X X Kavaja X X Rrogozhina X X Divjaka X Fier X X X X Vlora X X X X X Himara X X X Saranda X X Konispol X X Source: Integrated Cross-sectorial Plan for the Coast, NATP, 2015 Error! Reference source not found. identifies areas that are vulnerable to floods, to coastal erosion, and to landslides. The Adriatic coast, and the Drini and Mati River Delta in particular are identified as “critically vulnerable” to climate change.27 Coastal infrastructure is made vulnerable. The population growth in coastal cities has increasing number of people “living in poor-quality, highly exposed housing in disaster-prone areas”. In addition to this uncontrolled urbanization, other factors contribute to infrastructure vulnerability, including landscape degradation, uncontrolled modifications to river beds, water, air and land pollution, etc.28 The ICSP identifies a number of coastal municipalities that are already 25 Ndini, M. Draft report on Expected impacts of climate on water resource and adaptation measures, 4NC, 2020. 26 TNC 27 UNDP-GEF Project Synthesis Report ““Identification and implementation of adaptation response measures in the Drini- Mati River deltas” 28 Deda, M. Draft Report on Climate Related Disaster Risks and their Management for the Vjosa River Basin, 4NC and First Biennial Update Report, 2020. 39 Albania Revised NDC considered as “endangered areas” because of coastal erosion, coastal and/or river floods, saltwater intrusion, or landslides. Climate change will worsen these risks. In Tirana, transport, electricity, and water supply infrastructure as well as small scale industry are highly vulnerable to heavy precipitation and floods.29 Map 2. Map of risked areas Source: Integrated Cross-sectorial Plan for the Coast, NATP, 2015 Water Water supply infrastructure is among at-risk infrastructure from climate change, as floods and storm surges could affect the existing network and treatment plants. Furthermore, SLR is projected to increase the water level of rivers, flooding riversides and increasing salinization of 29 City of Tirana, Adapting our City to a Changing Climate: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan for Tirana, 2015. 40 Albania Revised NDC coastal aquifers. While water availability has not been an issue in Albania due to its ample freshwater reserves, salinization of coastal aquifers adds on to water losses in the water supply system (due to its maintenance state). Projected increases in temperature will lead to increased evaporation, especially in the summer which is when temperature increases the most. Water availability will be further affected by the projected decrease in precipitation projected to be strongest during summer months, resulting in decreased river runoff. As an example, in the Vjosa basin, annual runoff is expected to decrease between 3.4% (RCP 2.6) and 10.9% (RCP 8.5) by 2050 and between 3.15% (RCP 2.6) and 13.5% (RCP 8.5) by 2100. Runoff decrease is expected to be more important for other river basins.30 On the other hand, water demand is expected to increase. This is largely related to increased access to water supply and increase in personal use of water for well-being, as well as challenges to water governance.31 Although the marginal effect of climate change is difficult to project, heat waves and droughts are likely to lead to high peaks in demand. Projections for the Vjosa River Basin indicate that during drought periods in the months of July, August, and September, under RCP 8.5, there could be an unmet demand between 3 and 4.5 million m3 per year by 2050.32 Energy Given the high reliance of the country on hydropower and the poor state of related infrastructure, the energy supply is vulnerable to climate change. The ICSP states that “seasonal fluctuations can have a negative effect in securing energy supply from these hydro power stations”, mentioning that “in the recent years, the water levels in reservoirs have sometimes been very low levelled, forcing the domestic operators to purchase energy from neighbour countries to cope with the need for energy supply.” The projected decrease in annual river runoff will worsen this situation. Indeed, the National Climate Change Policy (2019) estimates that “by 2050, annual average electricity output from Albania’s large hydropower plants could be reduced by about 15% and from small hydropower plants by around 20%”. Even the projected new dams in Poçem on the Vjosa river will have to address significant streamflow reductions in the summer months, and moderate yearly streamflow reductions.33 Hydroelectricity infrastructure could also be damaged during heavy rainfall events, which tend to cause unusually high amounts of sediments to flow into the rivers and dams. On the demand side, increased temperatures will cause an overall increase in cooling degree days between May and September, which will reflect on higher demand for electricity. Error! Reference source not found. illustrates this for Albania, but the coast usually has more cooling 30 Ndini, M. Draft Report on Expected impact of climate on water resource and adaptation measures, 4NC, 2020. 31 Ndini, M. Draft Report on Expected impact of climate on water resource and adaptation measures, 4NC, 2020. 3232 Ndini, M. Draft Report on Expected impact of climate on water resource and adaptation measures, 4NC, 2020. 33 Ndini, M. Draft Report on Expected impact of climate on water resource and adaptation measures, 4NC, 2020. 41 Albania Revised NDC days than the rest of the country34. During winter months, the number of heating days should decrease, along with related energy demand.35 Figure 25. Projected change (median and range) in Cooling Degree Days (°C) for Albania 2040- 2059 Source: World Bank CCKP, 2020. The energy network is thus exposed to increased demand precisely at the time of the year where its supply is expected to be the lowest. This should not be an issue in winter months, as river flows are expected to increase, but drier summer months, with higher evaporation and more frequent droughts will affect the level of the reservoirs in summer months.

3.3.3. Risks and vulnerabilities of population Lives and livelihoods Above mentioned climate-related disasters and their consequences on settlements will also affect the coastal population. Error! Reference source not found.23 illustrates the types of natural disasters that had affected the Albanian population from 1985 to 2018. Destruction of infrastructure is likely to adversely affect coastal residents by:  Damaging or destroying their homes  Hindering their access to services, such as health, education, electricity, phone, internet, clean drinking water  Damaging or destroying their livelihoods, across the tertiary, secondary and primary sectors. Disasters may affect means of production, such as offices, industrial production and processing plants, storage facilities and roads to transport products. Tourism, a major livelihood in the region, will also be affected, as discussed next. Agriculture would 34 Bruci, E. Draft Report on Climate vulnerability and expected climate changes for the Vjosa River Basin. 35 World Bank CCKP, 2020. 42 Albania Revised NDC also be affected as a lot of marshlands below the sea level or at a low elevation have been turned into agricultural lands since the 1950s. 36 Figure 26. Number of people affected by natural hazards 1985-2018 in Albania Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal The increased frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts is likely to increase the number of fires, especially forest fires, which threaten the natural environment, but also livelihoods, settlements, and lives. Data for the Vjosa basin demonstrates an increasing trend in the number of forest fires since 1990.37 Health Climate-related disasters will increase the risk of injury and preventable death among population, and especially among vulnerable groups.38 Floods have been the natural hazard affecting most people between 1985-2019, and this trend has increased in recent years (Error! Reference source not found.). In addition to direct physical and mental health consequences from floods, water-borne and vector-borne diseases like salmonellosis, leishmaniasis and leptospirosis, to which infants and children are the most vulnerable.39 Projected temperature, precipitation and sea-level changes are also expected to affect health on various fronts:  The decreased water availability, increased floods, and overall temperature increase will adversely affect the quantity and quality of drinking water and favour the spread of diseases.40  Increased temperatures will likely affect people’s lives and health, as adaptation of the human organism is not immediate. The increased number of heat days is expected to adversely affect Albania’s population. More tropical nights mean that people are less able to cool down at night and recover from the day’s heat.41 Heat-related diseases and death 36 TNC, 2016. 37 Deda, M. Draft Report on climate related disaster risks and their management for the Vjosa River Basin, 4NC, 2020. 38 TNC 39 TNC 40 Ylli A., Draft report for V&A assessment for health sector, 4NC, 2020. 41 World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal 43 Albania Revised NDC (such as strokes, ischemic heart diseases, myocardial infarction, and chronic pulmonary diseases) are expected to increase proportionately with temperature rise. This will especially affect the older adults and the elderly, and other vulnerable groups of population,42 whose numbers are expected to increase in the coming years. Cases of skin burning are expected to increase, along with related skin diseases.43  Air quality is expected to deteriorate in major cities, due to increased temperatures and less precipitation and may cause an increase in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, especially in Tirana.44  Changes in climate are also favouring the expanded presence of tick and parasite vectors, making the country increasingly vulnerable to tropical disease outbreaks.45  As noted, health facilities could be damaged by climate-related changes, such as SLR, heavy rains or extreme temperatures.  Although the growing season is projected to become longer, the Albanian agricultural sector is vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on water resources, the increased risks of drought and extreme temperatures, and floods and erosion due to SLR. This could affect food security.  All of the above will create an additional burden on the health system.

3.3.4. Risks and vulnerabilities of the tourism sector The burgeoning tourism sector should be affected both favourably and unfavourably by projected climate change. Changes in touristic season The “sun and sea” tourism prevalent in the coastal area currently takes place essentially in the months of July and August, as these present the best temperature and precipitation conditions for this type of tourism. Changes in these variables will favour an extension of the touristic season, as described in Error! Reference source not found.. Table 9. Projected evolution of the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for the Vjosa River Basin coastal area TCI Baseline 2030 2050 Good conditions 60-70 mid-March to mid-October early March to early mid February to November early November Very good 70-80 end March - beginning of mid March - mid Mid March to early conditions October October October Excellent 80-90 mid April - end September early April - Beginning of April to conditions beginning of end September October Source: E. Bruci. Draft report Climate vulnerability and expected climate changes for the Vjosa River Basin, FNC, 2021. 42 City of Tirana, Adapting our City to a Changing Climate: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan for Tirana, 2015. 43 Ylli A.., Draft report for V&A assessment for health sector, 4NC, 2020. 44 TNC 45 TNC 44 Albania Revised NDC However, extreme temperatures and rainfall events will increasingly hinder the attractiveness of Albania’s coast during key summer months (June to September), regardless of the climate scenario. Touristic conditions The tourism sector will be affected by the same elements that affect Albanian coastal population and settlements.  Climate-related disasters will damage touristic infrastructure (e.g. hotels, villages, recreation parks, conference and fair centres, yacht harbours). They may also affect the much-needed increase in accommodation capacities and other touristic infrastructure that may be developed in order to support the projected growth of the sector.  They will also damage supporting infrastructure such as airports, roads and ports, as well as the capacity to provide consistent energy and quality drinking water. It should be noted that, as of 2017, 81% of foreign visitors arrived to the country by land.46  Tourists will be exposed to some of the shorter-term health effects of the changed climatic conditions, such as heat strokes, skin burns, and vector-borne diseases. Other factors may affect the attractiveness of Albania’s coast to tourists.  Loss of beach area due to SRL and erosion47  Damage to cultural heritage  Destruction of biodiversity and natural landscapes, both marine and coastal The National Tourism Strategy 2019-2023 identifies climate change among the risks to the industry. The recent vulnerability assessment of the Vjosa region also projects that the growth of the sector will be limited by loss of beach area and limits to their carrying capacity.48 Anthropogenic pressure Tourists will bring additional anthropogenic pressure on water resources, on energy demand and on the natural environment. They may therefore contribute to further enhance the projected effects of climate change in the coastal area. Tables 8 and 9 summarize the analysis developed above. Table 8 summarizes the potential effects of changes in climate-related variables on settlements, populations and tourism sectors in the Albanian coast, while Table 9 summarizes the vulnerabilities and risk of these sectors with regards to the projected changes in climate-related variables. Table 10. Summary of potential effects of changes in climate-related variables on settlements, population and tourism sectors in the Albania coast Factor Effects/Risks Effects on sectors Settlements Temperature  Increased evaporation  Increased demand for electricity to cool down  Increase in cooling degree days houses/buildings  Increased demand for drinking water in the summer  Decreased water level in hydroelectric reservoirs 46 Government of Albania, National Tourism Strategy 2019-2023 47 Laçi E., Draft Report for V&A assessment for population, settlements and tourism sectors, 4NC, 2021. 48 Laçi E., Draft Report for V&A assessment for population, settlements and tourism sectors, 4NC, 2021. 45 Albania Revised NDC Factor Effects/Risks Effects on sectors Precipitation  Increased frequency of droughts  Decreased water level in hydroelectric reservoirs and in the water supply system  Increased occurrence of floods,  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural especially during winter, but also environment during fall and spring months SLR  Salinization of coastal aquifers  Decrease availability of freshwater  Increased exposure of coastal  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural areas to floods from storm surges environment from floods and shore line regression in and erosion low lying coastal areas and river beds  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural environment related to erosion and landslides in coastal areas Population Temperature  Increased evaporation  Increased demand for electricity to cool down  Increase in cooling degree days houses/buildings  Increased demand for drinking water in the summer  Increased occurrence of heat waves Precipitation  Increased frequency of droughts  Decreased water level in the water supply system  Increased occurrence of floods,  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural especially during winter, but also environment during fall and spring months SLR  Salinization of coastal aquifers  Decreased availability of freshwater  Increased exposure of coastal  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural areas to floods from storm surges environment from floods and shore line regression in and erosion low lying coastal areas and river beds  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural environment related to erosion and landslides in coastal areas Tourism Temperature  Increased evaporation  Increased demand for electricity to cool down  Increase in cooling degree days buildings, including hotels, restaurants  Increased demand for drinking water in the summer  Increased occurrence of heat waves Precipitation  Increased frequency of droughts  Decreased water level in the water supply system  Increased occurrence of floods,  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural especially during winter, but also environment during fall and spring months SLR  Salinization of coastal aquifers  Decreased availability of freshwater  Increased vulnerability of coastal  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural areas to floods from storm surges environment from floods and shore line regression in and erosion low lying coastal areas and river beds  Destruction of settlements, infrastructure and natural environment related to erosion and landslides in coastal areas 46 Albania Revised NDC Table 11. Summary of the vulnerability to and risks from changes in climate variables of settlements, population and tourism sectors in the Albanian coast Sector Sectoral vulnerability factors Risks for the sector Settlements Infrastructure and built environment Infrastructure and built environment  Flatness of coastal area  Disasters cause settlements to lose access  Density of housing, buildings, to essential services such as shelter, infrastructure, agricultural land and electricity, drinking water, transport, health historic/cultural sites on the coast and educational facilities, industries, touristic  Occupation of particularly flood and infrastructure, etc. erosion high-prone coastal areas  Loss of life and livelihoods from climate-  Limited flood prevention infrastructure related disasters  Poor maintenance of flood prevention  Loss of land for future development infrastructure  Erosion related to limited sediments from dammed rivers Water Water  Important losses in current water supply  Diminished capacity to provide water to the system population and industry / unfulfilled demand  Demand is naturally increasing for water in the summer Energy Energy  High dependence on hydropower  Diminished capacity to provide power to the  Poor maintenance of energy population and industry / unfulfilled demand infrastructure / High rate of loss in for power in the summer distribution network Population Lives and livelihoods Lives and livelihoods  High population density in coastal Climate related disasters may cause: areas, including in high-prone risk areas  Loss of life and injury  Vulnerability of settlements (detailed  Destruction or damage to homes above)  Limited access to services (water, electricity, health, education, etc.)  Loss and/or disruption of livelihoods resulting from climate-related disasters directly (e.g., flooding of plants) or indirectly (e.g., loss of access to essential services like electricity or transport) Health Health  Health infrastructure constructed in  Loss of life and injury related to climate- vulnerable areas and overall related disasters, especially floods unprepared to projected climate  Mental health consequences from climate- changes related disasters  Vulnerability of settlements (detailed  Increased prevalence of water-borne and above) vector-borne diseases  Decreased availability and/or quality of water and food  Increased prevalence of heat-related diseases and death  Deterioration of air quality causing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases  Decreased access to health infrastructure and services  Increased burden of all of the above on the health system 47 Albania Revised NDC Tourism  Limited development of the tourism  Decreased attractiveness of June- sector September due to high temperature  Touristic season concentrated in the  Destruction or damage to touristic months of July and August infrastructure (hotels, cultural sites, etc.)  Touristic infrastructure (hotels, parks,  Destruction or damage to supporting built etc.), supporting infrastructure (airports, environment (airports, roads, etc.) roads, etc.) built in low-lying areas  Exposition of tourists to short term health  Vulnerability of settlements (detailed effects (heat strokes, etc.) above)  Loss of beach area  Damage to cultural heritage  Destruction and degradation of biodiversity and natural landscapes

3.3.5. Risks and vulnerabilities of the AFOLU sector

3.3.5.1. Current impacts of climate change Crops Crop production in Albania is highly exposed and influenced by the effects of climate change that have occurred during the last decades. In recent decades, serious disturbances in climatic parameters have been observed and, this has been more evident in the precipitation regime in the country. It is quite significant that during the period 2010-2020, the western lowlands of the country have been flooded many times, causing serious damage to agricultural production. However, based on the data obtained from various studies on climate change in the country, the annual precipitation has been decreasing, while the distribution of the precipitations during the year, has changed significantly, causing, heavy rainfall during the winter months, and long periods in summer without rainfall. As a result of these changes, in the last decade, many floods have been observed. From these floods, about 10,000 ha of wheat, 15.000 ha of fodder crops, 1000 ha of fruit tree, and over 1500 ha of vineyards have been destroyed. The biggest damages were caused in the northwest (Shkodra and Lezha regions). Based on the estimates made by agricultural experts the resulting damages from floods to agricultural production were about 100 million USD. On the other side, it has been noticed that in the last decades, the summer season is becoming drier with rising average temperatures. The effects of these climate changes have led to an increase in the demand for irrigation water, as well as the demand for chemical treatments to protect plants from diseases and pests. Livestock As a result of floods, in addition to the loss of fodder crops some poultry have been also lost. The biggest damages were caused in the northwest (Shkoder and Lezha regions). Higher temperatures during summertime and lower precipitation strongly affect grazing systems because of their dependence on climatic conditions and limited adaptation opportunities49. There could be far-reaching consequences for animal production through the effects on forage and 49 IFAD. www.ifad.org/lrkm/index.htm 48 Albania Revised NDC range productivity. The small ruminant animals, sheep and goats in Albania are mainly kept in extensive pasture system and they are more vulnerable to climate change, including higher temperatures and shortage of forage. The direct impacts of climate change are likely to be more limited in non-grazing systems mostly because the housing of animals in buildings allows for greater control of production conditions50. The most productive animals, dairy cattle, laying hens, broilers and pigs are managed and housed in good conditions in Albania and the impact of climate change on them will be less than farm animals in the semi-intensive or extensive system. The surface planted with alfalfa, which makes the main forage used in ruminant animals feeding, is still stable with a slight increase. The high temperatures during the last few summer seasons may have affected the laying hens and dairy cattle production, but no data are available to quantify this impact. The worst effect has been noticed in the area of diseases spread out in farm animals, because of high temperatures. Seven years ago, Albania had experienced the case of bluetongue diseases in cattle and then in sheep as climate change allowed its spread. Bluetongue disease is a non- contagious illness of ruminant animals that is transmitted through insects (Culicoides. Sp). In general, 900 head of cattle were infected, from which 175 died. Then the illness was spread out in small ruminant animals that infected 28,176 heads of sheep and 663 heads of goat from which were dead respectively 6379 and 142 Head of animals51. These are the main financial losses without taking into account the losses from the low productivity of animals. Another disease that is affected by climate change is Krime-Kongo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) that is present in Albania and causes death in human being but affect animals. The warmer winter season helps the survival of larvae and rays spread out of CCHF. The same situation has happened with horses infected with the West Nile virus spread out by Culex pipiens mosquito that is adapted to high temperatures. In the year 2011, 22% of horses were infected. Forests Climate change directly affects the frequency and intensity of forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks, the increased presence of invasive species, fires, storms, etc. Also, rising temperatures, heat waves and reduced rainfall cause stress to trees, directly affecting the productivity of forests. To date, there is no specific studies regarding the impact of climate change on Albanian forests. However, some impacts of those changes are already evident and consist of: 1. Damage to the coastal belt of Mediterranean pine forests (mainly Pinus halepensis). This damage occurred in two main areas: a. In Kune-Vain (Lezha municipality), where a forest belt of Mediterranean pines of about 80 ha has disappeared during 1985-2020 as a result of coastal erosion. The belt has a length of about 4 km and a maximum width of up to 400 meters. Coastal erosion in combination with a rising sea level has caused the loss of a significant amount of forest land in this area with an average extinction rate of about 2.3 ha/year. b. In Velipoje (Shkodra municipality), due to coastal erosion, a forest area of 34 ha with riparian forests was lost in the period 1985-2020. The rate of forest area of loss there has been about 1 ha/year. 50 FAO. "The State of Food and Agriculture: Livestock in the Balance, ." 2009 51 Blue tongue Bulletin, ISUV 2014 49 Albania Revised NDC 2. Changes have been observed in the vertical migration of forest areas. This has been observed to occur in the upper forest belt of Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii) and Macedonian pine (Pinus peuce) where those forests are moving to the areas of alpine pastures. In some areas, a vertical shift of forest vegetation between 50-100 meters has been observed. 3. The high temperatures and heat waves that have invaded the country have led to substantial damage of forests by massive forest fires. The frequency of fires and the damage caused by them has increased in recent years. During the period 2011-2019, about 760 forest fires were identified, burning an area of 337,800 ha of the Albanian forests. The deforestation rate due to fires caused the 22% of forest area reduction over 12 years. 4. New pests and diseases are becoming more frequent and causing massive damages to forest fund. Especially the forests of black pine, chestnut, plane, oaks, and box-tree are suffering from the damages caused by diseases and pests. Thus, some of the diseases and pests have appeared that were not previously in our forests are Box tree moth, Chestnut gall wasp and plane trees canker stain. On the other hand, diseases and pests have increased the rate of their spread and intensity of infection of forest trees (The Pine processionary moth, Oak processionary moth, Box tree moth, Chestnut gall wasp, Chestnut blight etc.). In total, it is estimated that the rate of forest impact by pests and diseases is spread over an area of about 200,000 ha or 20% of the total forest area of Albania. Pastures and Meadows After 1990, pastures in Albania are not actively maintained due to lacking human and financial resources, resulting in changes in the vegetation and pasture degradation. Pastures at altitudes 1500-1800 m are turning to shrublands domination by Juniperus. Pastures at higher elevations, above 1800 m do not show significant change. The analyses of digital photographs show a decrease of cover vegetation at 5 % of the alpine grasslands in Nemërçka Mt from 2004 to 201052. On the other hand, overgrazing of the alpine pastures led to increased presence of thorny and pioneer species like Centaurea sp. Cirsium sps. or so-called “resistant” species like Sesleria tenerrima etc. The same study refers that higher presence of invasive and pioneer species that has changed the structure of alpine grasslands mostly observed in Wide and Nemërçka Mts. Climate change effects on pastures were evident since the late 1990s, more precisely since the snowless winter of 1997. Since 1997, winters in Albania have become shorter and milder, whereas summers have become longer and hotter. Droughts in summer and sometimes even in autumn, and then sudden floods, have become more frequent. The climate change effects have increased the number and the intensity of fires in Albania negatively affecting grassland and pasture ecosystems. Lagoons and Wetlands Coastal lagoons are formed and maintained through sediment transport processes, which are affected by climaticchanges. Sediments carried by rivers, waves, currents, wind, and tides 52Shuka L., Malo S., Vardhami I. (2011) : The impact of global warming in southern Albanian grassland ecosystems, Conference: International Conference of Ecosystems (ICE), 4-6 June 2011, Tirana, Albania https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283211420 50 Albania Revised NDC accumulate in the river and tidal deltas, on marshes and flats where submerged aquatic vegetation slows currents, and on wash over fans. The process of sedimentation which can eventually fill in lagoons is interrupted in rivers such as Drini heavily affecting the sediments on the Adriatic coast53. Therefore, lagoon barriers in Shengjin and Patok area are constantly eroded by climate change related waves and wind, requiring continuous sediment deposition to maintain them. Water quantity and quality in the lagoons is influenced by the rate at which the lagoon loses or gains water from evaporation, precipitation, groundwater input, surface runoff, and exchange with the sea54. Lagoon–sea exchange is driven by tides and wave action and is often the largest component of lagoon water balance55. Some of the lagoons such as Kune – Vain, Orikum have almost lost communication with the sea as the most of communication channels are closed. Rising temperatures lead to increased eutrophication and change in water quality and salinity. There is observed and monitored change in the phytoplankton and zooplankton composition, as well as an increase of alien species population such as the blue crab Callinectes sapidus, competing will the local crab populations. Strong human pressures and inappropriate management practices have significantly reduced the natural system’s adaptability and resilience. Climate change is an added stress for wetlands and will highly influence the nature and function of specific wetlands, in particular the hydrological regime and the biodiversity. Climate change in combination with human-induced pressures is likely to become increasingly important factor leading to wetlands degradation and loss. Aquaculture and Fisheries Albanian coast is part of the Mediterranean basin, which is warming 20% faster than the rest of the globe as a whole56. Anticipated changes (increased sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, greater frequency of heat waves, sea-level rise, decrease in precipitation and changes in oceanographic circulation57, are expected to have a strong impact on habitats and ecosystems in general, and on fisheries and fisheries resources in particular. For instance, in the Adriatic Sea, the sardine, mackerel and anchovy respond to salinity changes, which are modulated by the climate oscillations, as described by the pressure differences between the mid-north Atlantic and the southeast Mediterranean. This behaviour change can be attributed to ongoing climatic changes, which change the migration patterns of pelagic fish in the Adriatic. Due to meridionalization and tropicalization several non-native species started to appear along the coasts of Albania during the last 2 decades. Those include blue fish, blue crab and silver- cheeked toadfish. 53 Nichols, M.M.; Boon, J.D. (1994). Sediment transport processes in coastal lagoons, in: Kjerfve, B. (Ed.) Coastal lagoon processes. Elsevier Oceanography Series, 60: pp. 157-219. hdl.handle.net/10.1016/s0422-9894(08)70012-6 54 Abigail A. et al. (2009) : Coastal Lagoons and Climate Change: Ecological and Social Ramifications in U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast Ecosystems. www.researchgate.net/publication/263008875 55 Smith, N. P. 1994. Chapter 4. Water, salt, and heat balances of coastal lagoons. Pages 69-101 in B. Kjerfve, editor. Coastal lagoon processes. Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 56 MedECC. 2020. 57 Hidalgo, M., Mihneva, V., Vasconcellos, M. and Bernal, M. 2018. 51 Albania Revised NDC

3.3.5.2. Future impacts of climate change Crops The future climatic changes in Albania are expected to have major effects on the crop production. Specifically in lowland areas it is predicted that the yield of maize will decrease by 17%, and the yield of tomatoes and watermelon will decline by 6-11%. In the agricultural areas with limited irrigation opportunities or no irrigation at all, it is expected that the yield of alfalfa will decrease by 6%, the yield of grapes -- by 17-23%, the yield of olives -- by 11 - 20%, while the yield of wheat is expected to increase by 4 - 5%. Albania’s statistical data on the yield and agricultural production in recent decades suggests that the level of inputs (chemical fertilizers, quality seeds, pesticides) as well as the level of modernization (irrigation, harvesting technologies, etc.) have been growing at very low rates, compared to the European Union countries. In these conditions, taking into account the expected effects of climate change on agriculture the Albania's gross domestic product, will potentially lose 800-900 million USD of income from crop production by 2050 (expert assumption). Table 12. Summary of the vulnerability to and risks from changes in climate variables of agricultural crops. Sector Sectoral vulnerability Risks/Impacts for the sector factors  Low technological  Increased risk of drought and water scarcity58 flexibility and productivity  Increased irrigation requirements Temperature rates  Increased risk of agricultural pests, diseases and  Low level of irrigation weeds (the amount of pesticides used has infrastructure increased significantly, which indicates an development increase in the level of infections, and treated  Low level of areas, to combat diseases and pests). phytosanitary controls  If we analyse the structure of production in the last  Crop area fragmentation ten years, we will notice that the area cultivated and reduction due to a with wheat has decreased by about 22%, while decrease in optimal production has decreased by 13%. farming conditions (the area cultivated with wheat has decreased by about 22%, while production has decreased by 13%. Precipitation  Low level of irrigation  Massive flooding, every 3-4 years (floods led to infrastructure the loss of about 10.000 ha of wheat, 15.000 ha of development fodder, 1000 ha of fruit tree, and over 1500 ha of vineyards) The biggest damages were in the northwest (Shkodra and Lezha regions) Livestock According to the World Bank study, the main projected climate changes that could impact the livestock sector are: (1) temperature increase and (2) precipitation becoming more variable. (3) damaging effects of severe floods. For some feedstock crops, the future climate impacts will be positive and for some other negative. The temperature stress effect on livestock will be gradual over time. The extensive and intensive livestock production systems will be affected differently by 58 In the last ten years, there have been very hot summers, and periods that have lasted almost two months, without precipitation. Such critical periods, there were in the summer season, during the years 2016-2018. 52 Albania Revised NDC climate change and, thus, different adaptation strategies must be implemented. The impacts of climate change on livestock production are represented by:  Direct impacts of increased temperatures and frequency and intensity of heat waves on animal production, reproduction, health, and mortality  The indirect effects linked to alteration of the availability and the quality of feedstuffs and drinking water as well as survival and redistribution of pathogens and/or their vectors. Temperature affects most of the critical factors for livestock production, such as water availability, animal production, reproduction and health. Forage quantity and quality are affected by a combination of increases in temperature, CO2 and precipitation variation. Livestock diseases are mainly affected by an increase in temperature and precipitation. Livestock in higher latitudes will be more affected by the increase of temperatures than livestock located in lower latitudes because livestock in lower latitudes is usually better adapted to high temperatures and droughts. Heat stress negatively affects milk and meat production as well as its quality, resulting in the alteration of cheese making properties and the merchandise value of milk. These changes result in significant, negative economic impacts for producers and consumers. High-producing dairy cows are more sensitive to heat stress. Negative effects can be noticed on beef breeds resulting in lower daily gains. In Albania, there are no pure beef breeds of ruminant animals, (cattle or sheep and goats). Meat production is based on young female animals not designated as overhaul animals and males or offspring of crosses between milk breeds with the semen of meat breeds. High temperatures have a negative impact on monogastric animals, pigs and poultry. According to literature (different authors) reduced and inconsistent growth, decreased feed efficiency, decreased carcass quality, poor sow performance, decreased reproductive performance (male and female), increased mortality, (especially in sows and market hogs), and morbidity is the main economic losses associated with heat stress in the swine industry. The poultry industry may also be compromised by low production at temperatures higher than 30oC. The climate impacts may vary by agro-ecological zone (Table 12). Table 13 Climate change impact on livestock production in different agroecological zones (AEZ) Northern South highlands Livestock/zone Intermediate zone Lowland zone mountains zone zone Beef production Slightly negative Slightly negative Slightly positive Positive Milk production Medium negative Medium Slightly positive Positive Pig production Medium negative Slightly negative Medium negative Medium negative Egg production Medium negative Slightly negative Medium negative Medium negative Poultry production Medium negative Slightly negative Medium negative Medium negative Table 14 Summary of the vulnerability to and risks from changes in climate variables of livestock Sector Sectoral vulnerability Risks/Impacts for the sector factors Low productivity and  Heat stress risks targets can be categorized into Temperature reproductive performances of feed nutrient utilization, feed intake, animal farmed animals. production, reproduction, health, and mortality. The heat stress will be felt more in grazing system in mountainous areas where the animals, mainly small ruminant animals, regardless they are local breeds, they are not adapted to heat stress.  In the lowland and intermediate zone, the heat stress will be more severe but most of the livestock are kept in stables being rather protected from heat stress.  The effect of heat stress on meat production will be linked with scarcity of fodder production, lower 53 Albania Revised NDC feeding value and the increase of production cost. More concentrated feedstuffs will be used for feeding.  Pig and poultry production will be affected also more in the lowland area from high temperatures.  An increase of temperature especially in the lowland Feed quantity and quality zone will increase the early lignifications of fodder crops, reducing their digestibility and degradability in ruminant animals and will increase the need to use more concentrated feedstuffs in their feed rations. This will increase the cost of milk and meat production. Increased risk of drought and  Water availability and quality issues will influence the water scarcity livestock sector, which uses water for animal drinking, feed crops, and processing of animal products. The animals in the grazing system will be more affected by water shortages, because of limited water pins and their poor maintenance.  Water availability will affect the proper hygiene during the different process of animal husbandry with consequences on their health and the quality and security of their products.  Vector-borne diseases could be affected by higher Diseases temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, which could translate into the increased spread of existing vector-borne diseases and macro parasites, accompanied by the emergence and circulation of new diseases. In some areas, climate change could also generate new transmission models.  In the case of extreme heat stress, we will have elevated mortality rates.  Local and rare breeds could be lost as a result of the impact of climate change and disease epidemics.  Most of the small ruminants, sheep and goats, are local breeds in Albania farmed mainly in the grazing Biodiversity of livestock system and they will be more vulnerable on climate change in Albania. From ten sheep breeds, three of them are at risk of extinction and from 17 goat’s breeds, 10 are at risk of extinction. Climate change will affect negatively their level of risk Rainfall  Forage quantity and quality are affected by a Precipitation combination of increases in temperature, CO2 and precipitation variation. The effect of climate change will be different according to AEZ, rainfall precipitation and temperatures.  In irrigated areas: The production of irrigated alfalfa will increase in all AEZ from 6-13 % with the highest value in the south highland zone. The maize production will decrease from 3 up to 11 % with the highest value in Northern Mountain zone. In the south highland zone, the effect of precipitation on maize production will be slightly positive.  In rain-fed areas: The production of alfalfa will decrease by 2-6 % especially in the Intermediate zone. In Southeast highland, the impact of climate change will be positive, with 7% higher production.  Regional floods have been accompanied with animal Floods losses and fodder shortage 54 Albania Revised NDC Forests In addition to problems caused by lack of capacities and support for the forestry sector, lack of law enforcement and forest fires, forests are expected to be significantly affected by future climatic changes. Forests on sites with the coldest conditions could experience, on average, an increase in productivity, while forests on the warmest sites may show a productivity decline. Additionally, pest and diseases will be more present, affecting more forest area and species in Albania. Considering the situation of the Albanian forests and management capacities, the vulnerability assessment shows that some forest types are most at risk from climate change. Those forest types are: sweet chestnut forests, Mediterranean and Anatolian fir forest, Alpine Scots pine and Black pine forest, Coastal forests with Mediterranean pines, Riparian forests, Mediterranean and Anatolian Black pine forest. Other forest types that will be affected are: Boxtree forests, Illyrian mountainous beech forest, Plantations of site-native species with black pine, Mediterranean evergreen Oak forest, Mountainous Moesian beech forest and some other forest types (birch, floodplain forests, European spruce etc.). Based on existing literature (Albanian National Communications to UNFCCC), some of the expected effects of climate changes on forests are:  In general, evergreen species and oak forests are expected to enlarge, while the area of beech forests, which are more important to produce wood, would reduce.  The deciduous forest area (Fagetum) is likely to decrease from 32.4 % in 2000 to 16.7 % by 2100.  The common spruce forest is expected to disappear (after 2025) while the alpine pasture on the top of high mountains would be limited in the area.  The species that resist high temperatures and severe long dry seasons would be able to survive. For those that need moisture (silver fir, etc.), the danger of being limited in distribution or disappearing does exist.  The Mediterranean alpine pasture area is expected to reduce more than ten times from 22.3 % in 2000 to 2.2 % by 2100.  The species that produce many small seeds and have a high distribution potential (Pinus etc.) would be able to survive.  Forest fires will be more frequent  Erosion will increase. Table 15 Summary of the vulnerability to and risks from changes in climate variables of forests Sector Sectoral vulnerability factors Risks/Impacts for the sector Temperature  Low management capacity of  Decline in forest productivity forestry authorities  Increase of forest productivity in  Unsustainable forest case of drought tolerant species. structure  More pests and diseases will be  Illegal logging causing more damages  Reduced trees' ability to produce sap  There will be species migration, especially towards non-forest areas (e.g., alpine pastures)  More forest fires  Reduction in forest areas for some species (fir, spruce, scot pine etc.)  Fragmentation of forest areas  Coastal forests will extinct or will suffer from salt waters, erosion and fresh water ability Precipitation  Less rainfall will negatively  Decrease of forest productivity in affect forest productivity case of species less drought 55 Albania Revised NDC  Increased temperatures alter tolerant. the timing of snowmelt,  Water stress will reduce forest affecting the seasonal productivity availability of water  Extreme precipitation will cause flooding in the western part of the country and along with coastal areas. CO2 increase  Atmospheric CO2 increase  Elevated CO2 may have positive will improve the ability of effects on forest productivity. trees to increase their growth  CO2 may enable trees to be more rates (if this is not affected by productive, which may change the high temperatures and distribution of tree species. limited rainfalls). Pastures and Meadows With the average annual temperature across the country increased between 0.8 – 1.0°C by 2025 and 2.9 – 5.3°C by 2100, shifts in the timing and frequency of climate extremes, such as drought and heatwaves, can generate sustained shifts in pasture and meadows function with important ecological and economic impacts, including a reduction of productivity. As the average annual precipitation across the country is expected to decline 2.6-3.4% by 2025 and 5.9-6.3% by 2050 this will result direct yield response. As described by PACE experiment59 on the Pastures and Climate Extremes using a factorial combination of elevated temperature (ambient +3°C) and winter/spring extreme drought (60% rainfall reduction) resulted in productivity declines of up to 73%. Functional group identity was not an important predictor of yield response to drought. Cool season drought translates into significant reductions in annual biomass production for four species/mixtures, ranging from 33% to 70%. Many species recover rapidly once the drought ends, although there were carry-over effects on warm season (summer/autumn) growth on specific species/mixtures, spanning all functional groups. Table 16 Summary of the vulnerability to and risks from changes in climate variables of pastures and meadows Sector Sectoral vulnerability factors Risks/Impacts for the sector Temperature  Elevated atmospheric eCO2,  Changes in forage quality may enhance photosynthesis,  Changes in the composition of however, it may be restricted plant communities by variations in rainfall and  Reduction in productivity due temperature. to decline of soil nutrients  Decrease in soil organic  Seasonal duration of grazing carbon. could be extended by at least  Heat and moisture stress 2.5 months. Precipitation  Less rainfall and declined  Damage in perennial plants Longer and slower recovery of grasses. Non-Native Species  Invasion of new habitats by  Biological diversity can be non-native grasses threatened/declined in various  Expansion of perennial ways. grasses over shrubs in areas  Reduced genetic variations frequently burned may become  Eroding of gene pools a critical issue.  Extinction of endemic species  Altered habitat and ecosystem functioning.  Altered cycle and composition of soil nutrients. 59 Curchill et al (2020): Pastures and Climate Extremes: Impacts of warming and drought on the productivity and resilience of key pasture species in a field experiment doi: https://doi.org/10.11012020.12.21.423155 56 Albania Revised NDC  Fragmentation of native ecosystems Lagoons and Wetlands Among other potential impacts, sea-level rise is projected to reduce the amount of available freshwater, as seawater pushes further into underground water tables. This is also likely to lead to much more saltwater intrusion into bodies of freshwater, affecting the water quality in lagoons and wetlands. It will also affect biodiversity in coastal habitats, and the natural services and goods they provide. Many wetland areas will be lost, threatening unique bird and plant species, and removing the natural protection these areas provide against storm surges. According to Lefebre (2019) simulation of the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin60, the future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios are considered, assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. Similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios are found. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in a good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. The studies for the Mediterranean basin including Albanian coastal lagoons suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as a reservoir (when higher precipitation will occur during winter). Although Albania, is not listed among the countries of higher risk of wetland degradation and loss, some specific areas such as Kune Vain, Patok and Orikum are more vulnerable due to very dynamic coastal shore. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary production. Table 17 Summary of the vulnerability to and risks from changes in climate variables of lagoons and wetlands Sector Sectoral vulnerability factors Risks/Impacts for the sector Temperature  Sea level raise causes  Habitat loss and reduction in migration landwards of the productivity water and changes in habitats  Reduced dissolved oxygen  Species composition (e.g., adversely affects aerobic biota, algae blooming, reduction of with benthic communities fish stock) expected to be the most  Abiotic (e.g., oxygen solubility) severely stressed. components of ecosystem functions as the water temperature in the wetland area increases several times more than in the open estuaries.  Increase in frequency and duration of summer 60 Lefebvre G. (2019): Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin. Science of the total environment, Volume 692, 20 November 2019, Pages 546-555 57 Albania Revised NDC heatwaves. Precipitation  Storms affect lagoons through  Reduced amount of freshwater over-wash events and by run-off from the water basin or erosion from wind and waves brought in by rivers, leading  Increased frequency of into a higher level of salinity droughts  Inland wetlands risk of drying  The increased amount of out, therefore resulting in extracted water in aquifer for habitat loss for birds and other irrigation purposes species. Non-Native Species/IAS  The stabilized population of  Reduced local biodiversity due alien species competing with to competition with alien local ones. species and changes aquatic  Increased susceptibility to the communities (like Callinectes colonization of invasive sapidus). species that may thrive in warmer waters. Aquaculture and Fisheries The vulnerabilities for pelagic and demersal fisheries in the Adriatic sub-region seem nearly identical regarding wider society/economy implications, fisheries resources and community and livelihood relatives impacts, respectively61. In the case of fishing operations impacts comparisons, in the Adriatic sub-region, the demersal fisheries will be more severely impacted in comparison to the pelagic fisheries. The comparison study has been conducted between the SST anomalies for RCPs near (2016- 2050) and distant (2066-2100) projections and the relative vulnerability index of Albanian marine fisheries62. In the most severe scenarios, the difference between the two projections (near and distant) SST anomalies become less evident, which means that it should be implemented an urgent and strategic plan of measures to tackle the effects coming from the SST anomalies. In the near projections, the vulnerability is decreasing in comparison between the less and more severe scenarios, while in the distant projections, there is no difference between the vulnerability index of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Probably this is because in the distant projections the effects of climate change on marine fisheries will be devastating, which would have required drastic measures to save the remaining marine fisheries sectors (as result these would be less vulnerable). Another important used tool63 by Bakiu, represented by DDS of the Aquaculture in Greece (developed in the frame of ClimeFish project implementation), showed that regarding the production/biological simulations in the two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), there is a higher growth rate in the first scenario, while the feed consumption (kg/weeks) is considerably higher than the second scenario – it probably creates a higher cost to support the growth of the European seabass by the farmers in the Vlora Bay. Furthermore, the total biomass for the same time seems to be lower in the second scenario – this is supported by the fact that the European seabass is considered to be highly vulnerable to SST increase in the Adriatic Sea. Other relative predictions showed an increase of heatwave days in each considered years for both scenarios, which could be considered as an alert signal regarding mussels farming and freshwater species in the Albanian territory. The temperature and the heatwave day’s number increase represent the climate change factors, which together with the factors indirectly linked to climate change can further enhance the impact of CC effects to the aquaculture sectors (marine and freshwater aquaculture). 61FAO. 2020. The State of Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries 2020. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb2429en 62Blasiak, R., Spijkers, J., Tokunaga, K., Pittman, J., Yagi, N. and Österblom, H. 2017 63 In DDS Aquaculture Greece software, the economic model calculates the business economics of the farm for the site selected climate scenario and management options based on the input values for the various prices and costs; in the biological model, individual growth and reproduction was modeled with the application of the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory by the ClimeFish team 58 Albania Revised NDC Table 18 Summary of the vulnerability to and risks from changes in climate variables of fisheries and aquaculture Sector Sectoral vulnerability factors Risks/Impacts for the sector Fisheries Temperature  Biological (e.g., microbial  Pelagic fish (small and big) activity, metabolic rates) dropping due to reduction of components of ecosystem primary production functions  Prevent shellfish breeding and  Abiotic (e.g., oxygen solubility) consequently low abundance components of ecosystem during bivalve mollusc species functions fishing  Changes in abundance,  Inevitably impact employment survival, growth, fertility/ levels in the fisheries sector as reproduction, migration and well as consumer options. phenology  Increase in frequency and duration of summer heatwaves  Higher growth rate and better reproduction season for warm water species  Migration of cold water species to colder areas, either horizontally (north, south, east, or west) or vertically (to deeper levels) Acidity  On bivalve mollusc species -  Prevent shellfish breeding and lower development rate of consequently low abundance seed (spat), increased adult during bivalve mollusc species mortality and difficulties on fishing. byssus attachment Non-Native Species/IAS  A serious problem for fisheries  Extinction of some species that and trophic relationships in may be preys of these coastal areas generalist fish species (like blue fish and mullet example);  Damage to fishing gears and health of fishers  Bring new diseases in the territorial water and coastal areas  Socio-economic negative impact mostly to small-scale fisheries. Aquaculture Temperature  Biological (e.g., microbial  European seabass farming has activity, metabolic rates) encountered problems due to components of ecosystem warmer water in the functions Mediterranean Sea and  Abiotic (e.g., oxygen solubility) Albania (according to components of ecosystem simulations higher feeding rate, functions lower growth rate and biomass  Increase in frequency and biomass) and the associated duration of summer heatwaves susceptibility to disease  Stimulate the growth,  Necessitate the shift of farming transmission and survival of species with the better aquatic parasites (mostly tolerance to warmer salmonids/trout) temperature, such as gilthead sea bream  European seabass cages to be moved to colder zones or deeper nets - increase the costs of European seabass production.  Affect human health through the consumption of 59 Albania Revised NDC contaminated seafood and the ingestion of water-borne pathogens – negative impact on relative aquaculture products marketing Acidity  On bivalve mollusc species -  Warming and lower lower development rate of precipitations increase the seed (spat), increased adult vulnerability to produce mortality and difficulties on qualitative Mediterranean byssus attachment mussels  Expected increased mortality of Mediterranean mussels in the Lagoon of Butrinti Precipitation  Increased frequency of  The apparent rise in droughts temperature, combined with lower precipitation levels, which lead to unexpected fluctuations in river flows and to unpredictable ecological degradation  40% of fish species in Mediterranean rivers are endangered, because of the reduction in river flows – with impact to inland fisheries

3.3.6. Gender distribution, gaps and structural barriers Women and men are legally equal under Albanian law, and its gender development index (GDI) in 2019 was high (0.967) and above the World average of 0.943.64 However this is not sufficient to ensure gender equality, as women face many obstacles in enjoying their equal rights, including:  They have a more limited access to assets, which translates into an inferior economic position. This gap encompasses salaries, property ownership, pensions, inheritance, and land;  More women are employed in the informal sector or at lower-paying jobs;  They are underrepresented among owners of important companies in technical sectors such as energy and transport;  They usually do not own land, even though they constitute the majority of the agricultural workforce;  Their representation in Parliament is low (28%), which is representative of their difficulty in taking part in decision-making processes. 65

3.3.6.1. Main gender differentiated vulnerabilities to climate change Currently available analysis on how climate change affects men and women differently in Albania is limited and focuses on the agriculture sector. This is relevant given that agriculture is a labour- intensive sector highly dependent on environmental conditions. The different vulnerabilities in this 64 UNDP, 2020 Human Development Report. The GDI is the ratio of female to male Human Development Index values. http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/ALB 65 TNC 60 Albania Revised NDC sector depend to a large extent on the differentiated roles of women and men in the agricultural value chain. According to a survey conducted for the Fourth National Communication (4NC), 39% of respondents believe there are differences in men’s and women’s ability to react to climate change, and among them, 53% believe men are more able to address climate change challenges.66 Lives Following the 2015 floods in the Southeast of the country, UN Women documented the following consequences of floods on women:  Increase of the workload by four hours on average, to clean up and due to lack of energy supply  Increase in violence against women, both domestic and outside the home, with women heads of households facing a greater risk  Decreased income  Loss of access to services that helped alleviate women’s workload (e.g., kindergarten, schools, etc.)67 The increase in violence against women and that of time use for main household chores were also identified as the main impacts of climate change on women’s living conditions in the FNC survey. The survey does not identify significant gender differences regarding the effects of increased conflicts in settlements or in reactions of hopelessness and sense of loss.68 They survey also identified significant differences in access to information about adaptation to climate change.69 Health According to the 4NC survey, women reported a more significant increase in health, physical and emotional problems than men following climate-related disasters. This is reported to intersect with ethnicity and location (especially in areas with more vulnerable populations), poverty or migration status. Exposure to high temperatures has adverse effects on pregnant women (teratogenic effect). Following floods, they can develop bronchitis or infections as they cleanup damp houses. Pregnant women are disproportionately more affected by healthcare access disruption following a disaster. Energy No studies are available on the effects of climate change on gender in the energy sector in Albania. According to UN Women, it is very likely that energy supply, use and consumption affect men and women differently, and intersects with factors such as location, age and financial status. Energy is considered to be a male topic, but household management is a women responsibility. 70 66 Zhllima.E, Draft report on Climate change and gender equality, 4NC, 2020. 67 UN Women, The Gender Impact of the 2015 February Floods in Southeast Albania, 2016 68 Zhllima.E, Draft report on Climate change and gender equality, 4NC, 2020. NC 70 UN Women & UNDP (2016). Gender Brief Albania 2016. Prepared by Monika Kocaqi, Ani Plaku and Dolly Wittberger. UN Women, Albania. 61 Albania Revised NDC Energy poverty may thus be worsened by climate change, as it affects energy consumption, means of heating, health and overall quality of life, including during winter, all topics typically falling under women’s purview.

3.3.6.2. Overview of measures and barriers Albania has signed a number of international binding and non-binding commitments with regards to addressing gender equality: Table 19. Albania’s international obligations with regards to gender equality Binding obligations Non-binding obligations  Council of Europe’s 2011 Convention on  UNFCCC Preventing and Combating Violence against  Beijing Platform for action Women and Domestic Violence (“The Istanbul  Kyoto Protocol Convention”)  Copenhagen Accord  Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of  Paris Agreement, Discrimination against Women (CeDaW)  2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (SDGs) The country has taken initial steps to mainstream gender in its climate change policies and programs. This included guidelines on mainstreaming gender in climate change mitigation and adaptation programs and plans in the 4NC. However, this has not been reflected in any of the recent climate-related policies and laws, none of which systematically address gender issues. This includes:  The Cross-Sector Strategy on Environment 2013-2020  The Intended National Determined Contribution to the global efforts for GHG emission reduction (DCM No. 762 of 16.09.2015)  National Strategy on Climate Change (NSCC) and its two annexes, the National Action Plan on Mitigation (NAPM) and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) (DCM 466, date 3.07.2019)  National Integrated Energy and Climate strategy, as an engagement of the Republic of Albania at the Ministerial Meeting of the Energy Community (Dec 2017).  Law "On climate change" on (DCM No.499, date 17.07. 2019).  Law no. 45/2019 "On civil protection" approved on 18/07/2019. Neither do gender-related strategies, such as the Third National Strategy on Gender Equality (NSGE) and its Action Plan 2016-2020, consider climate change issues. In contrast, climate change is identified in five Municipal Council’s Gender Equity Local Action Plans 2018-2020.71 Progress is hindered by the limited availability of data. Only a few studies on the effects of climate change on gender in Albania are available, and most focus on the agriculture sector. Disaster Risk Management and Environment, Energy Poverty and Climate Change were identified by UN Women as largely undocumented gender issues.72 The Albanian Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) has increased the use of gender indicators and added gender equality sections to some of its reports. Only a few ministries collect gender disaggregated data on issues related to climate change. This includes the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 71 Zhllima.E, Draft report on Climate change and gender equality, 4NC, 2020., 2020. 72 UN Women & UNDP (2016). Gender Brief Albania 2016. Prepared by Monika Kocaqi, Ani Plaku and Dolly Wittberger. UN Women, Albania. 62 Albania Revised NDC (MARD) and its Agriculture and Rural Development Agency (ARDA) but not the Civil Protection Units. Uptake is greater at local level, where municipalities are establishing gender indicators in their budget monitoring systems. The limited presence of women in key decision-making spheres is also a barrier to progress on this issue. On the other hand, the 4NC identifies four driving forces for change:  The various conventions ratified  The existence of national binding rules for updating the majority of strategies related to gender equality  The pressure of the Albanian Government to align to requirements brought by the European Integration process  The education system Section 4.4 includes the four objectives identified in the Gender Action Plan included in the 4NC.

3.4. Adaptation measures

3.4.1. Overview of adaptation measures Albania has developed and implemented a large number of adaptation related policies, strategies, plans, programmes, project and actions. Among others, the country has identified priority adaptation actions in the National Strategy on Development and Integration 2015-2020, the Third National Communication, the National Climate Change Policy and the NSCC and its National Adaptation Plan, the Adaptation Plan for Tirana, the national tourism strategy 2019- 2023, the national forest policy 2019-2030, the integrated cross-sectoral plan of Tirana-Durres area and the Green Climate Fund Country Programme that was developed in a participatory manner based on the previous documents. These documents identify a very large number of adaptation actions. These are categorized and summarized in tables below73. In tune with the Paris Agreement’s adaptation objectives, these actions will enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal referred to in Article 2 of the Paris agreement. 73 To develop this table, three steps were followed. In the first step, for each sector (settlements, population and tourism) a list of actions was produced including all the actions indicated in the above- mentioned documents, presenting these actions exactly as they were presented in those documents. This resulted in very long lists (121 actions for settlements, 90 for tourism and 85 for populations) with a lot of duplication and some actions that were too general. In the second step, i) broad adaptation categories were defined taking into account a taxonomy that has been widely used internationally, and ii) actions were arranged per sector according to these broad categories. These involved merging and reformulating some of the actions that were included in the lists produced in step 3. The second step produced shorter list of actions for each sector. In the third step, the sector lists were triangulated to produce the table presented in this document. It is worth noting that given the cross-sectoral nature of coastal settlements and populations and the strong links between these sectors and between them and the coastal tourism the sector lists were very similar to each other, with significant coincidences (sometimes only the order changed). 63 Albania Revised NDC

3.4.2. Prioritization of adaptation measures Considering that all the actions identified have significant potential to contribute to adaptation in Albania's coastal area, the prioritization exercise focused on two main aspects, namely:  Co-benefit potential of the actions, which refers to the probability and the extent to which said actions can also generate (i) socio-economic development and (ii) mitigation benefits.  Ease of implementation, which seeks to identify actions whose implementation is easier to achieve. This aspect considers the complexity of (i) the institutional and (ii) technical requirements and (iii) the magnitude of costs (financial aspects) as inversely proportional to the ease of implementation, i.e., a very expensive measure is less “easy to implement” considering that a large budget needs to be mobilized. Feasibility was not analysed as all of the actions are considered both feasible and necessary. Each sub-category was rated as “low”, “medium” or “high”, and ratings were weighted and cumulated, leading to an overall priority rating.74 Detailed ratings are available in Annex 2. Adaptation Several measures related to policy and governance are rated as very high, largely due to their potential important development co-benefits and limited technical complexity and costs. These include developing sectoral adaptation plans and disaster risk management plans as well as mainstreaming adaptation into spatial/territorial and sectoral planning and legislation. Measures pertaining to enhancing technical capacity and awareness raising also have a very high priority as they have important co-benefits and are simple to implement. All measures pertaining to adapting the supporting natural environment are considered as having very high priority, given the extent of both mitigation and development co-benefits they could generate, and their limited institutional complexity and relatively low costs. Water and energy efficiency, and rainwater harvesting are the measures to prioritize in terms of adaptation of the supporting built environment. All measures related to promoting gender equality in relation to adaptation should also be considered as having very high priority. Gender-related measures are meant to be structuring in the sense that they are meant to ensure gender is mainstreamed across all the other measures, including for example sectoral adaptation plans. Several measures that are very important for adaptation, such as those related to generating scientific evidence in support of decision-making, to climate-proofing infrastructure, or to disaster risk management are not highlighted as having a “very high priority” mainly due to their high technical complexity and costs. It is important to highlight that while this prioritization exercise highlights the “low hanging fruits” in terms of adaptation, that can be enacted rapidly and can generate multiple benefits, Albania acknowledges the importance of planning, budgeting for and implementing more complex, costly and specific adaptation measures as well. 74 The weights for co-benefits are 0.8 for development and 0.2 for mitigation. For ease of implementation, weights are 0.3 for institutional, 0.3 for technical, and 0.4 for financial. For each category, ratings of low, medium or high were associated respectively with 1, 2 or 3 points. The total weights equally consider the co-benefits and the ease of implementation criteria. The final priority level identifies as “Very high” the actions with a rating of >4.5 points, as High those with 4.5>x>4.0, and with Medium priorities those with a rating <4.0 (the maximum number of points an action could get is 6). 64 Albania Revised NDC 65

3.4.2.1. Adaptation measures in the Albanian coast Table 20. Summary of planned adaptation measures and priority level for settlements, populations and tourism in the Albanian coast Adaptation measures Priority level Strengthening the Policy and Strengthen the Institutional and organisational strengthening of governmental structures in providing High enabling environment governance institutional interconnection between planning authorities and other inter-sectoral bodies that play a framework (e.g. role in adapting against climate changes. coordination) Strengthen the Development of territorial climate change adaptation plans for the whole coast (an High policy framework: integrated coastal zone adaptation plan), specific regions (the 4 that were prioritized) or development and cities enactment of laws, Development of sectoral climate change adaptation plans for the 3 main sectors Very high policies, regulations prioritized and the supporting sectors (water, energy and agriculture/forestry/fisheries) and plans, including action plans, and Development of risk management plans Very high mainstreaming. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national cross-sectoral development Very high planning legislation, regulations, procedures and tools Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into spatial/territorial development planning Very high legislation, regulations, procedures and tools, including building codes (orientation of constructions in areas protected by floods and marine erosion) Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into sectoral development planning legislation, Very high regulations, procedures and tools (including building codes and standards for housing and other infrastructure) Enforcement of (revised) national, territorial and sector level legislation and regulations High (building codes, water resources…) Increase funding for Mobilization of financial resources for climate change adaptation (DR preparedness, Very High climate change including for relocation) / Explore and find the means of accessing Albania’s public adaptation: financing budget for financing NAP implementation and fiscal planning Fiscal preparation, including an emergency fund for disaster risk response, recovery and High reconstruction Establishment of incentives and subsidies for climate smart practices (e.g. climate Very high proofing buildings, energy efficient technologies) Developing insurance schemes and social protection systems for climate change-related Medium disasters 66 Scientific, Generating scientific Support research on and monitoring of physical, biological and social aspects, including Very High technical and evidence to support climate-related variables (including sea level and extreme weather events), the erosion of societal capacity decision-making on the coast, coastal and marine ecosystems, vector-borne diseases, natural resources CCA (e.g. water and food quantity and quality, air quality), the built environment (e.g. location, density) and socio-economic and demographic aspects, including the modernization of monitoring equipment and systems Monitor vulnerability (conduct vulnerability assessments and develop risk maps, at the Very high territorial and sectoral levels (including infrastructure)) Ensure effective communication of monitoring information to relevant sectoral and Very high territorial actors, including through the development of end-to-end, people-centred and multi-hazard early warning (MHEW), including on floods Monitor and assess the implementation and results of adaptation programmes, projects Very high and actions, ensuring the engagement of women in this process Enhancing technical Capacity building (e.g. training, best practice exchange, development of guidelines) on Very high capacity climate change, its impacts (e.g. ecosystems, buildings, water and energy infrastructure, health) and the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions of key stakeholders (e.g. policy and decision makers, planning authorities, implementers, including the private sector) Awareness raising Public information and awareness raising (e.g. awareness raising campaigns) on climate Very high change, its impacts and the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions (e.g. heat related, resources efficiency, reclying) Climate proofing Climate change Climate proofing Determining (green and blue) buffer zones in risk-prone areas (in the coast and in-land) Very high residential and delivery coastal buildings Construction and maintenance of protective infrastructure (e.g. sea defences/concrete Medium productive and facilities to gates, increasing the level of river beds (desilting, widening channels) infrastructure, touristic prevent further accommodation and damage and Climate proofing buildings (covering of buildings’ walls and roofs with thermoisolating High assets and health (and degradation materials, the using of double glass windows and doors, green roofs, natural ventilation, other social) facilities fire evacuation routes and fire protection systems) Adapting the Water Integrated water basin and watershed management (e.g. protection of forest in the upper Very high supporting built areas of watersheds) environment Protection of ground water (e.g. strengthening and modernization of evacuating system High of salty waters, in order to impede their penetration deep in the land and their mixing with fresh waters) Construction and maintenance of rainwater harvesting infrastructure, including water Very high reserves Construction and maintenance of desalination plants High Climate proofing existing water infrastructure (e.g. pipes) High Increase the efficiency of water use, with a focus on infrastructure Very high 67 Energy Promote additional renewable energy infrastructure to diversify source of power Very high generation Developing capacity to access energy from neighbouring countries (incl. integration in Medium ENTSO network) Promote energy efficiency, including the reduction of power losses in the distribution Very high network Climate proofing energy infrastructure High Transport Climate proofing transport infrastructure High Telecommunications Climate proofing telecommunications infrastructure High Adapting the Adopt integrated, Protection and restoration of existing forest/vegetation, reforestation Very high supporting natural ecosystem-based Managing/restoring river beds (embankments) and reforesting river sides to increase Very high environment approaches (EbA) water retention and/or nature based solutions (NbS) Protection and restoration of coastal wetlands Very high Green approaches to the built environment (green roofs, streets, corridors and open Very high spaces/ water open spaces) Protected areas Strengthen the system of protected areas, including coastal and marine ecosystems, for Very high effective conservation and sustainable use Promote climate-smart and sustainable agriculture, forestry and fisheries Very high Strengthening disaster risk management Strengthening capacity of civil defence/emergency units to respond to extreme weather Very high events (e.g. medical assistance during summertime) Displacement and relocation of high-risk infrastructure (particularly residential and social Medium infrastructure) in safer territories Promote gender equality in terms of climate change adaptation Promote gender equality in decision making on climate change policies on central levels Very high of policymaking and strengthen capacities of institutions to integrate gender considerations in climate change policies, including through the use of gender- responsive budgeting Conduct gender analysis at sectoral level and integrate their findings and Very high recommendation by updating the relevant national and local strategic documents in order to integrate best practices and information with gender and climate change issues taken into consideration Develop and pilot gender-related climate change adaptation projects with demonstration Very high and awareness focus on AFOLU as well as energy at local level 68

3.4.2.2. Adaptation measures in the Albanian AFOLU sector Table 21 Summary of planned adaptation measures and priority level for Agricultural Crops Sector Adaptation measures in the Agricultural Crop Sector Priority level Construction of new irrigation system and rehabilitation and modernization of existing irrigation systems to Very High Construction of a new restore irrigation on 360.000 ha arable land , which could potentially be irrigated irrigation system and National level rehabilitation of Gradual transition from classic forms of gravity irrigation to modern forms of irrigation (sprinkler and drip High existing irrigation irrigation) infrastructure Strengthening water use associations for the management of the irrigation water and raising the awareness Medium of the farmers for the payment of the irrigation fee  Construction of new drainage systems and rehabilitation of the existing drainage infrastructure Very High  Construction of a new drainage system and Very High Increase by at least 50% of the current number of excavators and machinery needed for the maintenance of rehabilitation of existing drainage infrastructure. drainage infrastructure High Increase the financial support for municipalities, to undertake the necessary interventions in the secondary and tertiary drainage canals. Increase the flood protection capacities. From a total of 850 km of river and sea embankments, about 300 km Very High Increase flood of the need urgent repairs. protection capacities The update of the river management plans (river Buna, Drin, Mat, Shkumbin and Vjosa), and assessment of Medium the additional interventions, needed for flood cases in the areas with a medium and high degree of risk Application of subsidy schemes for farmers, for the introduction of new technologies in agricultural production Very high Policy and organization Financial support for the application of agricultural crop insurance schemes, for the harmful effects of climate Very High measures change Increase institutional capacity, to monitor climate indicators, as well as indicators related to the effects of Medium climate change in agriculture Raising the awareness of farmers, and agricultural specialists, on the risk posed by climate change in Medium agriculture, as well as necessary measures to adapt to these climate changes. Introduction of new cultivation techniques, such as direct planting, (no-tillage systems) as well as, soil Medium mulching techniques Soil related measures Application of agroforestry practices, combining the growth of crops accompanied by forest trees, and Medium Farm-level construction of hedgerows and windbreaks on the fields planed with crops Reduction as much as possible of chemical inputs in agriculture and Introduction of new cultivation High technologies Farm management Promotion of organic farming and application of precision farming systems Medium Introduction of pest and disease resistant cultivars as well as improvement of pest monitoring and information High system 69 Application of crop cultivation in protected environments, increasing the area of greenhouses, tunnels and High hail protection systems Crop related measures Promoting plant breeding programs, which are focused on the development of new cultivars adapted to Medium climate change. ( drought and cold resistant) Application of crop rotation practices, in the plain areas of the country, as well as the planting of perennial Medium crops, in hilly and mountainous areas Increased financial Diversification of crops, cultivated on farm and diversification of farm activities altering agricultural production Medium resilience with agroprocesing , agr-tourisem etc . Table 22 Summary of planned adaptation measures and priority level for Livestock Sector Adaptation measures in the Livestock Sector Priority level Development of livestock sectoral climate change adaptation plans Very High Policy and institutional Development of National Strategies and Action Plans for Agricultural Genetic Resources Medium measures. Increase institutional capacity, to monitor climate indicators, livestock data, regarding the number, level Very High National level (Strengthen the coordination of production in different seasons for respective AEZ between different institutions Establishing of a weather alert system to enable livestock farmers to protect animals. Improve the Very High and programs for agriculture capacities of livestock farmers and herders to understand and cope with risk posed by climate change and rural development to in livestock. support the livestock sector) Application of subsidy schemes to farmers, for the introduction of new technologies in livestock Very High husbandry, diversification and processing activities. Financial support for the application of livestock insurance schemes, for the harmful effects of climate Very High change. Strengthening capacities of national veterinary service to protect animal health and wellbeing. Very High Improving the livestock sector’s environmental sustainability. Increasing efficiency of natural resources High use.  Breeding strategies Capacity building of Institutions and farmers associations to plan and implement appropriate breeding High programs to improve animal production and their resilience to climate change Capacity building of farmers for conservation and sustainable use of local genetic resources, as more High resistant and adapted to changes in climate environment National cryo-bank establishment or enhancing collaboration with international gene banks for cryo Very High conservation of most vulnerable local farm animal genetic resources Production Grazing Increasing efficiency in resource use, fodder and water, improving the sector’s environmental High adjustments system sustainability Diversification, intensification and/or integration of pasture management, crop production and Medium agroforestry practices for extensive system of livestock husbandry. Increasing the efficiency of pasture management through sustainable grazing practices like as Medium rotational grazing, adjusting the frequency and timing of grazing to match the livestock’s needs with the availability of pasture resources. Establish and maintain water points for livestock in grazing areas and shelters to protect animals to hot seasons. 70 Implementation of mixed livestock farming systems, such as stable -fed systems during winter and Medium pasture grazing, in the spring-autumn period. Better use of alpine pastures, during summer especially for fattening animals to avoid overgrazing near villages. Diversification of farm animal species because they exploit different feed resources. They can be Medium affected differently from the outbreak of diseases. They have different reproductive rates and can contribute differently to rebuild livestock holding after drought, disease or natural disasters. Increasing livestock mobility, the traditional strategy of transhumant herders; in the winter period from Medium mountainous regions to low land regions and vice versa during summertime Applying agroforestry as an integrated approach for extensive grazing system of livestock Medium Landless Improve the environment inside housings/application of efficient cooling equipment like fans, water Medium livestock sprinklers to minimize heat stress. Planting trees around stables systems Medium Improve management of water resources through the introduction of simple techniques for localized irrigation (e.g., drip and sprinkler irrigation), accompanied by infrastructure to harvest and store rainwater, such as tanks connected to the roofs of houses and small surface and underground dams. Reduction of livestock numbers – a lower number of more productive animals leads to more efficient Low production Improving animal husbandry through activities that ensure proper nutrition and appropriate feeding and Medium reproductive strategies Table 23 Summary of planned adaptation measures and priority level for Forestry Sector Adaptation measures in the Forestry Sector Sectors Priority level Institutional Strengthen the Support the capacities of the National Forestry Agency and the municipalities on including Forestry High Adaptation institutional forests in the development plans, and climate change adaptations of forests. framework Strengthen the policy Draft a national plan for afforestation based on ecologic settings Forestry Very High framework: Improve politics and financial instruments to make the forestry sector efficient Forestry Very High development and Approximate and implement EU regulations relevant to forestry Forestry High enhancement of laws, Implement national strategy and action plan for climate changes Forestry High policies regulations and plans, including action plans Improve forest Improve capacities on monitoring of forest health Forestry High management Improve capacities in all forest management aspects Forestry High Improve capacities on pests and diseases management Forestry High Introduce new technologies in afforestation and forest management Forestry High Capacity building on forest fire protection and management Forestry High 71 Improve research and innovation in the forestry sector University High Introduce new technologies in afforestation and forest management University High and NFA Livelihood Strengthen the Supporting populations dependent on the forestry Forestry Medium Adaptation coordination and Monitoring of vegetation shifts and species composition Forestry Medium management Management of Invasive and Alien Species Forestry Medium framework within and between the Forestry sectors: at national and local levels Risk Reduction and Early warning Improvements on fire detection, pests and diseases capacity about the future status of forest Forestry High Management for measures resources Resilience Preparedness and Protect and preserve forests through ecosystem-based management. Forestry Medium Response Strengthening research capacities in the field of ecosystem services. Forestry High Table 24 Summary of planned adaptation measures and priority level for Pastures and Meadows Sector Adaptation measures for Pastures and Meadows Sectors Priority level Institutional Strengthen the Strengthen the capacities of the newly established Forestry Agency and the Forestry Forestry High Adaptation institutional framework Unit at Municipality level on developing including pastures and meadows in the regional and development plans, including designating specific role and responsibilities in adapting Pastures against climate changes. Strengthen the policy Development of strategies for sustainable pastoralism Forestry Medium framework: development and and enhancement of Pastures laws, policies Design of climate change projections targeting alpines and highlands and the pasture Forestry Very High regulations and plans, vulnerability and including action plans Pastures Improved Management Strengthen capacities of Forestry and pasture units in the Local Authority level on Forestry High of Pasture sector upon evaluation pasture resources, as preparedness for risk assessment and risk assessment and pasture monitoring Support Universities and research institutes in developing research and studies on risk Education Medium assessment for pastures Livelihood Adaptation Strengthen the Support smallholder livestock communities in rural and highland areas through based Forestry Medium coordination and local investment programs, by scaling up and integrating climate change adaptation and management framework options Pastures within and between the Monitoring of biodiversity and species composition in pasture, including the exploitation Forestry Medium Forestry and pasture and management of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) and sectors: at national and Pastures 72 local levels Risk Reduction and Early warning measures Forestry High Management for Improvements on predicting capacity on the status of bio-resources through improving and Resilience the research on pasture biodiversity and productivity Pastures Preparedness and Protect and preserve pasture and meadows through ecosystem-based management. Forestry High Response and Pastures Table 25 Summary of planned adaptation measures and priority level for Lagoons and Wetlands sector Adaptation measures for Lagoons and Wetlands Sectors Priority level Institutional Strengthen the Institutional and organizational strengthening of central and local governmental Protected Very High Adaptation institutional framework structures (NAPA and RAPA) and local municipalities on developing the structures at Areas regional and local level which are capable on identifying and addressing the stressors and develop Adaptive Management Plans. Strengthen the policy Development of territorial climate change adaptation plans for the whole coast (an Protected Very High framework: integrated coastal zone adaptation plan, including lagoons and protected areas) Areas development and Proclaiming additional Marine Protected areas along the wetland and lagoon area will Protected High enhancement of laws, support integrated efforts into developing adaptation measures. Areas policies regulations and Development of risk management plans especially on Flood Prevention Protected Medium plans, including action Areas plans Rehabilitation and restoration of degraded habitats, including barriers along the coastal Protected High zone Areas Maintain water communication with the sea through the natural communication Protected Medium channels Areas Support monitoring agencies in design and perform water quality in each Environment High wetland/lagoon to track impacts of climate change on abiotic factors (temperature and dissolved oxygen) to reduce risks through environmental quality monitoring methods and techniques Livelihood Adaptation Strengthen the Supporting research communities in performing biodiversity monitoring programs in Protected High coordination and each wetland/lagoon, including bird population and Invasive Alien Species (IAS) Areas management framework Development of ecotourist activities in the wetland/lagoon area such as birdwatching, Protected High within and between hiking, etc Areas different sectors Control of water extraction in the aquifer Agriculture Medium Risk Reduction and Early warning measures Establishing the early warning system to prevent floods and fires with impact on Protected Very High Management for sensitive areas/habitats Areas Resilience Preparedness and Protect and preserve natural resources within lagoon and wetland areas through Protected Very High Response sustainable management and planning of all economic activities. Areas Training and qualification for local administration and communities living within Protected Very High 73 Protected areas on climate change impacts. areas Table 26 Summary of planned adaptation measures and priority level for Aquaculture and Fisheries Adaptation measures for Aquaculture and Fisheries Sectors Priority level Institutional Strengthen the Institutional and organizational strengthening of central and local governmental Fishery High Adaptation institutional framework structures (following a co-management approach) in providing interconnection (e.g. coordination) between planning authorities and other inter-sectoral bodies that play a role in adapting against climate changes Strengthen the policy Development of territorial climate change adaptation plans for the whole coast (an Fishery High framework: development integrated coastal zone adaptation plan, including lagoons and fishery sectors) and enhancement of laws, Development of fishery sectoral climate change adaptation plans integrated to the Fishery Very high policies regulations and supporting sectors (water, energy and agriculture) and development of risk plans, including action management plans75 plans Improved Management of Addressing the specific needs of small scale coastal fishing and supporting the socio- Fisheries High Fishery sectors based economic role of sea fisheries in coastal and insular areas upon risk assessment and Restructuring and modernize the fishing fleet by improving work and safety, Fisheries Very High monitoring (e.g. conditions, the quality and hygiene of products, energy efficiency and selectivity. incorporating system Improving the marine fisheries employment age structure and promoting the Fisheries Very High feedbacks) diversification of activity and/or parallel employment, as alternative solution to impacted fishery related activities by the CC. Supporting populations dependent on the fisheries sector in coastal and isolated Fisheries High areas by providing them financial conditions for more sources of incomes. Livelihood Strengthen the Strengthening the sector by investing in development of new markets and expanding Fisheries Very High Adaptation coordination and the range of offered products (as a collaboration with the processing industry and management framework partners from other countries). within and between the Improving scientific capacities to predict/assess the future state of the fisheries Fisheries High fishery sectors: at national sectors in the face of climate changes. and local levels (e.g. Strengthening the resilience of natural resources by following an adaptive fisheries Fisheries High municipalities) management approach (application of the Ecosystem Based Approach) Increasing the involvement of fishers in the tourism sector (like pesca-tourism) Fisheries Medium Exploitation and Management of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) Fisheries Medium Strengthening aquaculture capacities by following ad-hoc recommendation and Aquaculture Very High measures regarding environmental parameters and diseases76 75 Development of fishery…and development of risk management plans were aggregated 76 Strengthening aquaculture capacities by following the ad–hoc measures regarding the diseases and “Strengthening aquaculture capacities by following ad-hoc recommendation and measures regarding environmental parameters” were aggregated 74 Improving aquaculture capacities by species diversifying, while oriented toward local Aquaculture High and international markets Strengthening aquaculture capacities by using adequate fingerlings (dimensions, age Aquaculture High and density) in the on-growing facilities and improving aquaculture capacities by adapting qualitative and proper feed quantity to changed climate conditions 77 Risk Reduction and Early warning measures Improvements on predicting capacity about the future status of bio-resources Fisheries High Management for Study and record of the impact of climate change on current used techniques in Aquaculture High Resilience aquaculture to develop new more efficient methods and techniques Intensifying cooperation towards the direction of detection and prevention of new Aquaculture Very High diseases, study of the physiology of marine species, conduct research into new and better able species to adapt and better nutritional systems that are both effective and environmentally friendly. Risk pooling and transfer Insurance aquaculture to avoid the risk of bankruptcy for fish farmers from damage to Aquaculture Very High their facilities due to extreme weather events; incentives to insure and avoid long- term reductions in production and social problems of the abandonment of their profession Risk Reduction Reducing exposure to risks at sea, such as storms and winds, can include training Fisheries Medium and provision of safety gear or GPS devices (it mainly includes lakes and marine fisheries). Increased resilience of aquaculture to reduced flow of water, changes in water Aquaculture High physicochemical parameters, and occurrence/spread of fish and mussel’s diseases Preparedness and Protect and preserve fisheries resources via a gradual transition from a fisheries Fisheries Very High Response management policy based on the control of fishing effort to an Ecosystem-Based management. Strengthening research capacities in the field of selective breeding, aqua-feed and Aquaculture High breeding in closed systems. Apply aquaculture closed production systems and integrated aquaculture Aquaculture Medium technologies 77Improving aquaculture capacities by adapting qualitative and proper feed quantity to changed climate conditions and “Strengthening aquaculture capacities by using adequate fingerlings (dimensions, age and density) in the on-growing facilities” were aggregated 75 4. FAIRNESS, AMBITION AND CONTRIBUTION TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION The revised NDC of Albania presents an ambition that contributes to achieving the objectives of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, and to achieve regional and national strategies and plans. At the national level, the NDC is aligned with Albania’s long term national and sectoral development strategies, plans and goals. On mitigation, sectoral projections used for the NDC scenario are based on national strategies, including the National Strategy on Development Integration 2015-2020, the National Strategy on Climate Change, the National Action Plan on Mitigation, the National Energy Strategy, and other sectoral plans. On adaptation, the planned adaptation measures for settlements, populations and tourism are aligned with the National Strategy for Development and Integration 2015-2020, especially the pillar 4th on Growth through the sustainable use of resources and territorial development. They are also in tune with the objectives of the National Adaptation Plan, as well as the ones of the Integrated Cross-Sectoral Plan for the Coast and the National Strategy for Sustainable Tourism Development 2019-2023, among others. The revised NDC is also in harmony with Albania’s post-earthquake/disaster and COVID-19 green recovery strategies and plans. The proposed adaptation measures, and especially the ones on the built environment and on disaster risk management, are aligned with and contribute to the guiding principles of the Albania post-disaster needs assessments, which specifically aims to achieve reconstruction and recovery in a manner that increases the resilience of infrastructures, ecosystems, the environment, and vulnerable communities to future disasters, including anthropogenic and climate shocks, and to promote adaptation to climate change by introducing specific measures into sectoral recovery and reconstruction programs. The revised NDC is also aligned and contributes to the UN Albania COVID-19 Socio-Economic Recovery and Response Plan, which complements the Government of Albania’s National Response Plan and the National Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SPRP). The revised NDC supports the need to invest in a low-carbon and resilient economy, by promoting clean, green, sustainable and resilient investments, ensuring post COVID-19 green recovery. The revised NDC is closely aligned with the Fourth National Communication being developed in parallel, as well as the Third National Communication of Albania to the UNFCCC. At the regional level, the NDC is also aligned with EU’s Green Deal, which aims to enhance the EU climate 2030 objective, taking into account all sectors (including FOLU), to decarbonise the energy sector, supporting innovation in transport and industry; through an action plan in order to boost the efficient use of resources by moving to a clean, circular economy. According to the EU Green Deal, a Just Transition Mechanism and Fund has been set up to help regions and sectors the most affected by the cost of transition, due to their reliance on fossil fuels such as coal. The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, included in the Communication on an Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans adopted by the European Commission in 2020, has five pillars: (1) climate action, including decarbonisation, energy and mobility, (2) circular economy, addressing in particular waste, recycling, sustainable production and efficient use of resources, (3) biodiversity, aiming to protect and restore the natural wealth of the region, (4) 76 fighting pollution of air, water and soil and (5) sustainable food systems and rural areas. The implementation of this Green Agenda requires substantial public and private funding, at national, regional and international level, and the EU considers supporting innovative financial instruments such as the Instrument for Pre-Accession (IPA). This revised NDC is aligned and directly contributes to the first pilar on climate action (both on mitigation and adaptation), as well as the 3rd one biodiversity (adaptation measures on adapting the supporting natural environment). At the global level, as presented in point 6 of section 3, implementation of this revised NDC contributes to achievement of the Paris Agreement, reflecting Albania’s own national circumstances. In this sense, Albania’s contribution is both fair and ambitious. Albania’s historical and current levels of GHG emissions are low, at the global level and in comparison to other European countries. Albania’s national GHG emissions represented only 0.02% of global emissions in 2016. While the average level of emissions per inhabitant was 8.7 t CO2e/hab in the EU-27 in 2018, the level of emission per capita in Albania was 3.5 t CO2e/hab in 2016. Albania is a country with an economy in transition and expects human and economic developments in the next decades, which would increase the level of emissions, which, as noted, are historically low. The NDC considers a lower level of emissions increase in comparison to the expected business- as-usual scenario (-16.3% in 2030), considering more sectors and gases than in its first NDC. This constitutes a high ambition given the capacities of the country. The emissions reduction objective is not defined as a general target but is based on a bottom-up approach taking into account possible mitigation actions sector by sector, ensuring that the final target remains a realistic and reachable figure, considering the current of implementation of existing mitigation actions, which is sometimes limited. Albania will take into account the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC in its future development and commits to decouple GHG emissions from its economic growth and embark on a low emission development pathway beyond 2030.This NDC also includes adaptation measures, which is an enhancement of the first NDC, and will absorb significant resources. In addition, the implementation of this NDC will directly contribute to achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13: Climate action, and indirectly to SDG7: Affordable and Clean Energy (mitigation target), SDG3: Good health and well-being (adaptation health measures), and SDG 5: Gender equality (cross-cutting focus on the revised NDC, which is addressing gender differentiated vulnerabilities to climate change and gender gaps and structural barriers). The implementation of the mitigation and adaptation measures included in this revised NDC will contribute to human rights in a broader sense, in line with Albania’s national policies and regional and global commitments, including the 2030 Agenda and the Aarhus Convention on access to information, public participation in decision-making and access to justice in environmental matters, through participatory processes, including a strong engagement of youth. By promoting the climate proofing of residential and productive infrastructure, touristic accommodation and assets and health (and other social) facilities, and the strengthening of disaster risk management, the revised NDC is aligned and directly contributes to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 which outlines four priorities for action to prevent new and reduce existing disaster risks: (i) Understanding disaster risk; (ii) Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; (iii) Investing in disaster reduction for resilience and; (iv) Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. 77 5. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

5.1. Institutional and legal aspects Strengths: The Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Climate Change (IMWGCC), which coordinates all institutions involved in climate change processes, will facilitate the implementation of this NDC, and will promote some of the proposed adaptation measures, especially on strengthening the enabling environment. Furthermore, Albania’s institutional arrangements already enable the preparation of national inventory and projections and comply with international reporting requirements. The existing coordination between the Ministry of Tourism and Environment, other ministries, UNDP, FAO-Albania, and other institutional actors, is a strength to improve the MRV framework in the country as well as the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions. General and sectoral mitigation and adaptation strategies are well documented in specific legal and policy documents, such as the National Energy and Climate Plan. The National Climate Change Strategy included national mitigation and adaptation plans (NAP). The Government of Albania is currently developing an action plan for this NDC to provide direction and a timeline for implementing adaptation and mitigation actions. Gaps: Precise objectives or means of implementation are sometimes lacking, and some of the policy and legal documents have not been fully approved. There is a lack of consistency among different areas of policy, which relies on a high number of external consultancy projects. There is a need to move from a project-based approach to a more mainstreamed process. There is a lack of public awareness to acknowledge relevance of climate change. Adopted policies and measures are not always applied. The adaptation section of this NDC incorporates adaptation actions for the Albanian Coast encompassing all current policies and strategies targeting settlements, population and tourism. This structure provides an opportunity to adopt a systematic approach to implementing adaptation actions. The NAP focuses on mainstreaming adaptation into sectoral approaches. Doing this will contribute to strengthen the enabling environment when implemented.

5.2. Knowledge and capacity Strengths: Some knowledge and capacities are available within the administration, universities and other Albanian institutions both on mitigation and adaptation. For example, technical capacities are available to develop the MRV for mitigation in all sectors. Gaps: However, scientific, technical and societal capacities could be further developed, to generate scientific evidence to support decision making on the most strategic measures and their implementation. For instance, on mitigation, the country is lacking harmonized, complete and consistent datasets for various sectors, such as for Waste and FOLU. Existing datasets could be improved for a more precise monitoring. Furthermore, there is no mitigation action tracking system that would enable the monitoring of implementation of policies and measures and of their impact in terms of GHG emissions reduction. In terms of adaptation, technical capacity to plan for adaptation, both on policy and on technical aspects, needs to be further strengthened at all levels. 78

5.3. Technology transfer Strengths: Albania already benefits from the creation of the Units of Information, Technology and Communication and the Agency of Research, Technology and Innovation (AKTI). In some sectors, there is no need for important technology transfer (Agriculture, FOLU). In the Waste sector, a technology transfer is already undergoing with the building of new incinerators. Gaps: Albania would benefit from updating its Technology needs Assessment (TNA), assessing the technology needs for both mitigation and adaptation in the different economic sectors. Its latest version was published in 2005 and is a bit outdated. For the energy sector, there is a need to enhance technology transfer, for example for the oil and gas sector and on renewable energy. According to the EU Low Carbon Economy Roadmap, significant investments and technological transfers will be needed, in particular in new low-carbon technologies, renewable energy, energy efficiency, and grid infrastructure. Adapting the supporting built environment and climate proofing residential and productive infrastructure, touristic accommodation and assets and health (and other social) facilities will also require accessing new technologies.

5.4. Finance Strengths: Albania has a robust financial strategy on mitigation and adaptation, including financial needs and potential sources of funding. Adaptation measures were prioritized in this revised NDC according to the relative magnitude of their costs, among others. Several measures that are very important for adaptation also have a low cost including several measures related to generating scientific evidence in support of decision-making and to capacity-building. These could be more easily incorporated in budgets and short-term plans. In the agriculture sector, most mitigation actions have a low cost and even can deliver additional revenues. Gaps: Albania does not currently integrate climate change considerations and criteria, as well as relevant policies, in the guidance, procedures and methodologies used for selection and appraisal of public investment programs and projects. Such criteria need to include: (i) impacts of the project on climate change mitigation efforts, to determine if the project will lead to an increase or decrease of GHG emissions. Projects that have significant impact on GHG emissions should conduct GHG accounting and use the shadow price of carbon in their economic analysis and (ii) assessment of climate change risks and vulnerabilities relevant for the project, as well as if the project outcomes contribute to adaptation efforts and strengthening climate resilience. Public and private investments shall be secured and tracked so that they ensure effective implementation of the NDC in all sectors. In addition, Albania has limited experience in carbon pricing instruments to promote decarbonisation, including the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. With regards to adaptation, some essential measures involving among other climate-proofing infrastructure, or disaster risk management are not highlighted as having a “very high priority” mainly due to their high technical complexity and costs. 79 6. CLARITY, TRANSPARENCY AND UNDERSTANING Element of transparency Albania updated NDC 1.Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year): Reference year(s), base year(s), Albania is committed to reduce its GHG emissions from its projected reference period(s) or other starting BAU baseline by the year 2030. Therefore, the target is expressed as a point(s) mitigation effort of -20.9% total GHG emissions reduction in 2030 compared to business-as-usual scenario for this year. Starting point of projections calculation is 2016: emissions are calculated from 2016 to 2030. NDC’s implementation timeframe spans from 2021 to 2030. Quantifiable information on the Business-as-usual emissions in 2030 are calculated through a reference indicators, their values in the projection of emission based on the continuation on recent trends, reference year(s), base year(s), current implemented policies, and take into account macroeconomics reference period(s) or other starting indicators evolution such as GDP and population. point(s), and, as applicable, in the Total emissions (including FOLU) for the BAU scenario increase by target year +49.4% between 2016 and 2030. Details of emissions for the reference year and the starting point are given in the NDC main text. For strategies, plans and actions Not applicable. referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information Target relative to the reference The difference, in 2030, with the BAU scenario, is -3,170 kt CO2e below indicator, expressed numerically, for BAU in 2030, which represents a mitigation impact of -20.9%. example in percentage or amount of reduction Information on sources of data used in National inventory GHG emissions from the 1st BUR draft and the 4th quantifying the reference point(s) National Communication were used to estimate the starting point (2016) and to projected emissions up to 2030. Information on the circumstances National inventory emissions may be updated in two years, for the under which the Party may update the compilation of the 2nd BUR to reflect more accurate data. values of the reference indicators 2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation Time frame and/or period for NDC’s implementation timeframe spans from 2021 to 2030. Additional implementation, including start and mitigation actions (actions that are not already in place even if end date, consistent with any further sometimes they were already planned, but not effectively enforced) are relevant decision adopted by the CMA considered in the calculation for this period. However, mitigation actions from existing policy and strategy have already begun and some are taken into account between the starting date (2016) and the current year (2021), considering their level of enforcement, explaining some differences between the BAU and NDC scenarios for this period. Whether it is a single-year or multi- A single year target, 2030, is considered. year target, as applicable. Scope and coverage General description of the target Albania aims to reduce emissions relative to business-as-usual by 2030, with the implementation of mitigation actions in the main emitting 80 sectors of the economy: Energy, IPPU, Agriculture, Waste and Forest and Other Land Use (FOLU). The inclusion of IPPU, Agriculture, Waste and FOLU are an enhancement since the INDC only covered Energy. Sectors, gases, categories and pools Sectors and The NDC covers all IPCC sectors covered by the nationally determined categories Sectors covered by NDC are: contribution, including, as applicable, - Energy (excluding international transport) consistent with IPCC guidelines - Industrial processes and product use (excluding F-gases) - Agriculture - Forest and Other Land Use (FOLU) - Waste Mitigation actions are considered for all sectors (for the IPPU sector, impacts of the Kigali Amendment are considered in the BAU). Gases Carbone dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) HFCs PFCs, SF6 and NF3 are not covered as they are considered negligible. The inclusion of perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) will be added to the NDC coverage once included in Albania’s GHG inventory. Geographical Entire national territory How the Party has taken into Albania revised NDC takes into consideration all main emitting sectors consideration paragraphs 31(c) and as well as removals. For IPPU, the ratification of the Kigali Amendment (d) of decision 1/CP.21 to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, is considered in the BAU and NDC scenarios. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Mitigation co-benefits are expected to result from the implementation of Parties’ adaptation actions and/or adaptation actions: economic diversification plans, - Strengthen the policy framework: development and enactment including description of specific of laws, policies, regulations and plans, including action plans, projects, measures and initiatives of and mainstreaming as well as Enhancing technical capacity Parties’ adaptation actions and/or are crucial for the implementation of mitigation actions. economic diversification plans. - Adaptations actions targeting the protection of environment to preserve the water resources, such as the protection of forest in the upper areas of watersheds, are consistent with the implementation of actions to enhance forest management and reduce the fuelwood exploitation increasing the sinks in the FOLU sector. - Adaptations actions targeting the diversification of energy sources and the promotion of energy efficiency are consistent with the mitigation actions defined for the Energy sector. - Climate proofing transport infrastructure could also increase the reduction of emissions from the fossil fuel combustion within the Energy sector. - Adaptation actions targeting the adoption of integrated, ecosystem-based approaches (EbA) and/or nature based solutions (NbS), such as the protection and restoration of existing forest/vegetation or green approaches to the built environment are consistent with the implementation of FOLU mitigation actions and can help reach additional carbon uptakes in soil and biomass. - Adaptation actions targeting the promotion of climate-smart and sustainable agriculture, forestry and fisheries can result in mitigation co-benefits, in line with the objectives defined for croplands and grassland within the FOLU sector. 81 - Adaptation actions targeting the climate proofing coastal buildings and facilities are beneficial to the mitigation actions set up for the residential and commercial buildings subsector within the Energy sector. - Adaptation actions in the hydropower infrastructure allow to further exploit renewable energy and decrease emissions from the energy industries. 4. Planning process Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its NDC and, if available, on the Party’s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: i. Domestic institutional arrangements, To enhance its 1st NDC, Albania has set up an institutional public participation and engagement arrangement that implies experts from different institutions, such as the with local communities and indigenous Ministry of Environment and Tourism and UNDP Albania. The peoples, in a gender-responsive development of the revised NDC has been highly participatory. manner; ii. Contextual matters, including, inter National circumstances, such as The Republic of Albania is a alia, as appropriate: geography, climate, economy, Balkan country in Southeast sustainable development, and Europe, mostly mountainous. poverty eradication Albania has a subtropical Mediterranean climate, with some continental influence. In 2019, Albania had an estimated population of 2.88 million. Recent demographic developments show that Albania's population is shrinking and heading towards aging. Albania is fairly densely populated. In 2018, the average population density was 99.7 inhabitants per km2. Albania has experienced a strong urbanization process. After 50 years of communist rule, Albania has transformed from one of the poorest countries in Europe in the early 1990s to an upper-middle- income country in 2020. Economic growth has been associated with structural economic changes. In 2019, the service sector constituted about 50% of the GDP of the country. Industry and construction made up about 20% of the GDP and the agriculture sector contributed about 19% of the GDP. The socio-economic progress of Albania has been recently hampered by two shocks: the country was hit by a devastating earthquake in November 2019; and the COVID- 19 crisis. The earthquake and the pandemic are expected to significantly increase poverty. A detailed presentation of the national circumstances is provided in the main text of the NDC. Best practices and experience To prepare the update of the NDC, related to the preparation of the the objective was to maintain NDC consistency between existing inventory and reporting processes. The preparation of the NDC was a 82 work implying national experts for the mitigation and adaptation sections. Other contextual aspirations and Not applicable priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement Specific information applicable to The updated NDC target for 2030 will be fulfilled by Albania and is not Parties, including regional economic part of regional joint agreement. integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16–18, of the Paris Agreement; How the Party’s preparation of its NDC Albania will consider the results of the Global Stocktake to be issued by has been informed by the outcomes of the UNFCCC in 202378. the global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement Each Party with an NDC under Article How the economic and social This revised NDC is an 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists consequences of response enhancement of the first NDC in of adaptation action and/or economic measures have been considered that it includes adaptation diversification plans resulting in in developing the NDC; measures, focusing on the mitigation co-benefits consistent with Albanian coast and AFOLU. Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Section 4 presents climate Agreement to submit information on: variability and change in the country, analyses climate risks, impacts and vulnerability for three priority sectors, discusses gender distribution, gaps and structural barriers regarding climate risks, impacts and vulnerability, and categorizes and prioritizes adaptive measures. Development and mitigation co-benefits and ease of implementation was considered to prioritize adaptation measures. Specific projects, measures and See the list of expected mitigation activities to be implemented to outcomes resulting from adaptation contribute to mitigation co- actions in section 3 of this table. benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not 78 According to Article 14.2 of the Paris Agreement, the Conference serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Agreement (CMA) shall undertake its first global stocktake in 2023 and every 5 years thereafter unless otherwise decided by the CMA. It is expected that the reduction commitments of the updated NDC of Albania will be considered in the Global Stocktake Report to be published in 2023 by the UNFCCC and its outcomes will be considered for the 2025 NDC. 83 limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals Assumptions and methodological Methods applied are presented in the main text of the NDC. approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals corresponding to the Party’s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA Assumptions and methodological The NDC takes into account current and draft policies and measures approaches used for accounting for that have been used to define the list of mitigation actions for each the implementation of policies and sector. Assumptions about the level of implementation of these policies measures or strategies in the and measures were prepared in discussion with national experts, nationally determined contribution considering the national circumstances and the current level of implementation of existing objectives. If applicable, information on how the The NDC takes into account the existing methods and guidance under Party will take into account existing the Convention, and considers its key principles of transparency, methods and guidance under the accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency, and ensure Convention to account for the avoidance of double counting. anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; IPCC methodologies and metrics used Methodologies from IPCC 2006 Guidelines are applied to estimate for estimating anthropogenic historical and projected emissions. The NDC is consistent with the greenhouse gas emissions and latest national GHG inventory compiled. Global Warming Potential removal. Values from IPCC Second Assessment Report are applied. Sector-, category- or activity-specific i. Approach to addressing Natural disturbances are assumptions, methodologies and emissions and subsequent accounted for in the inventory and approaches consistent with IPCC removals from natural in the calculation of projections for guidance, as appropriate, including, as disturbances on managed lands; the NDC. Forest wildfires are the applicable only disturbances considered and are not excluded from the total of emissions in the FOLU. A background level (excluding exceptional episodes) of emissions is used for the projections, as exceptional episodes cannot be predicted. ii. Approach used to account for HWP are not yet accounted in the emissions and removals from national inventory, immediate harvested wood products; oxidation assumption is applied. The same is done in the NDC to be consistent. Next inventories will consider whether HWP calculation could be improved. iii. Approach used to address the No specific modelling of forest effects of age-class structure in biomass has been applied. forests; Projection is based on the parameters (increment rate, losses) used in the inventory. Other assumptions and i. How the reference indicators, The BAU scenario is based on the methodological approaches used for baseline(s) and/or reference most likely evolution of the 84 understanding the nationally level(s), including, where Albanian energy sector according determined contribution and, if applicable, sector-, category- or to the baseline scenario of the applicable, estimating corresponding activity specific reference levels, National Energy Strategy approved emissions and removals, including are constructed, including, for by the Albanian Government on example, key parameters, August 8, 2021 and with no further assumptions, definitions, policy interventions. It was methodologies, data sources and developed accordingly to the models used; National Energy Strategy considering new set of macro- economic drivers such as GDP and population. LEAP was the energy model used for energy demand forecast until 2030. ii. For Parties with nationally Not applicable determined contributions that contain non-greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; iii. For climate forcers included in Not applicable nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; iv. Further technical information, Not applicable as necessary; The intention to use voluntary The accounting rules for international carbon markets under Article 6 of cooperation under Article 6 of the the Paris Agreement have not been set up yet. Albania intends to sell Paris Agreement, if applicable carbon credits during the period until 2030 to contribute to cost‐effective implementation of the low emission development pathway and its sustainable development. Albania foresees that the utilization of international market mechanism is conditional on having effective accounting rules developed under the UNFCCC to ensure the environmental integrity of the mechanisms. 6. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances How the Party considers that its NDC Albania will take into account the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC in is fair and ambitious, in the light of its its future development and commits to decouple GHG emissions from national circumstances, its economic growth and embark on a low emission development pathway beyond 2030. Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity; Albania considers its update of the INDC ambitious because it covers more sectors and gases, and it increases the reduction target compared to BAU to be achieved in 2030. To ensure the implementation of this higher mitigation ambition, substantial investments will be required. The updated NDC target thus represent progression beyond the current NDC. Adaptation has also been considered in the updated NDC. The country’s emissions per capita will remain substantially lower than the European average (3.5 Mg CO2 eq. per capita in Albania, compared to 8.4 Mg CO2 eq. per capita in the EU-27). How the Party has addressed Article Albania’s updated NDC represents an enhancement of the first NDC, 4, paragraph 3, of the Paris as the scope includes more sectors and gases, and the mitigation Agreement; target in 2030 is more ambitious (from 11.5% to 20.9%). How the Party has addressed Article The updated NDC includes all sectors except PFCs, SF 6 and NF3 from 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris IPPU, while the first NDC included only Energy sector, showing the Agreement; intent to have a mitigation target covering all sectors. How the Party has addressed Article Not applicable 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris 85 Agreement. 7. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objectives of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 How the NDC contributes towards The revised NDC of Albania contributes to the global mitigation effort achieving the objective stated in considering its national circumstances. The mitigation actions are UNFCCC Article 2, which has been defined for all sectors and therefore tackle all sectors of the economy. later clarified as the objective of The inclusion of the FOLU sector allows an increase in the absorptions limiting global warming at +2°C and if by the sinks of this sector, which could contribute to the global climate possible +1.5°C through the climate neutrality during the second half of the 21st century. neutrality during the 21st century How the NDC contributes towards Albania is a developing country, highly vulnerable to the effects of the Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, climate change. National GHG emissions represent only 0.02% of paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement global emissions in 2016. Considering the national circumstances for the economic development of the country, the NDC mitigation actions reduce the increase of emission from 2016 to 2030. A peak of emissions is not projected during the timeframe of the current NDC. 7. ANNEXES

Annex 1. Mitigation calculations (details for sectors) 7.1. Energy The BAU scenario is based on the most likely evolution of the Albanian energy sector with no further policy interventions. It was developed according to the National Energy Strategy considering new set of macro-economic drivers such as GDP and population. The base year was calibrated to the official 2016 national GHG inventory. The current structure of energy supply and demand in all economic sectors remains similar to the base year. A continued prevalent use of electrical energy for heating and warm water in residential and the service sector. A significant portion of future demand for electricity is met through new power hydropower plants but also new thermal general based on imported natural gas. It is expected that Albania will become a net exporter of electricity from 2025 onwards. National energy intensity decreases only slightly in the BAU scenario from 2016 to 2030. The NDC scenario is based on the National Energy Strategy and also takes into account the Gas Master Plan of Albania, considering the introduction of natural gas in almost all sectors (including energy industry, manufacturing industry, transport, commercial, residential and agriculture). This scenario considers the implementation of the different National Energy Efficiencies Actions Plans (NEEAP) to increase energy efficiencies in both supply and demand reaching a 15% gain in 2030. The 15% in final demand is split among sectors as presented in the table below. 86 Table 27. Distribution of energy efficiency gains between Energy subsectors Sector % Residential 22 Services 19 Industry 25 Transport 31 Agriculture 3 Total Saving Potential 100 It also takes into account the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) with objectives of a share of 38% of renewables in the final energy consumption in 2020 and 42% in 2030. 7.1.1. Electricity Production The BAU scenario is based on the following production mix evolution. It is expected that natural gas will enter the market in 2023 and then increase in 2026 with the entry into force of new CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) installations. Table 28. Production mix evolution – BAU scenario Units: MW Branches 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Other CCGT 150 150 150 300 300 Vlora 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 Bistrica2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MSW 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 Wind 50 50 75 100 120 140 150 Bistrica1 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 Shkopet 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Ulez 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Fierza 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 Komani 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 Vaudejes 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 Ashta 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 Kalivaci 80 80 80 80 80 80 Devolli Cascade 75 75 75 75 75 75 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 Skavica Cascade 230 230 230 230 230 230 Vjosa Cascade New SHP 196 206 217 228 240 253 266 279 293 308 323 339 356 374 393 413 433 Solar PV 1 1 1 7 11 11 15 15 50 150 160 300 320 350 360 380 400 Imports/Export Net Transfer Capcity 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 Biomass {unspecified} 5 6 6 8 8 10 10 10 Total 2 340 2 350 2 361 2 453 2 469 2 482 2 499 2 957 3 006 3 379 3 455 3 926 4 140 4 213 4 269 4 479 4 529 In the NDC scenario, new CCGT (300 MW) are replaced by additional renewable energy sources (+50 MW of solar PV and +50 MW of wind): 87 Table 29. Production mix evolution – NDC scenario Units: MW Branches 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Other CCGT Vlora 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 Bistrica2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MSW 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 Wind 50 50 75 100 120 140 200 Bistrica1 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 Shkopet 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Ulez 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Fierza 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 Komani 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 Vaudejes 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 Ashta 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 Kalivaci 80 80 80 80 80 80 Devolli Cascade 75 75 75 75 75 75 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 Skavica Cascade 230 230 230 230 230 230 Vjosa Cascade New SHP 196 206 217 228 240 253 266 279 293 308 323 339 356 374 393 413 433 Solar PV 1 1 1 7 11 11 15 15 50 150 160 300 320 350 360 380 450 Imports/Export Net Transfer Capcity 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 Biomass {unspecified} 5 6 6 8 8 10 10 10 Total 2 340 2 350 2 361 2 453 2 469 2 482 2 499 2 957 3 006 3 379 3 455 3 926 3 990 4 063 4 119 4 179 4 329 The impact in terms of Natural gas consumptions according to both scenarios is presented on the figures below. Figure 27. Fuel consumption – electricity and heat plants (BAU) Fuel Consumption - Electricity & Heat Plants (TJ) 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid fuels Solid fuel Gaseous fuels Natural gas consumption is reduced by 79% between the BAU and the NDC scenarios because of the reduction of electricity production from thermal power generation due to the increase in renewable electricity production and the reduction of distribution losses and final consumption thanks to energy efficiency actions. 88 Figure 28. Fuel consumption – electricity and heat plants (NDC) Fuel Consumption - Electricity & Heat Plants (TJ) 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid fuels Solid fuel Gaseous fuels 7.1.2. Refining It is expected that the crude oil amount refined will increase from 300 kt in 2016 to 900 kt in 2030 according to national full capacities. Emissions increase proportionally. BAU and NDC have similar trends. Figure 29. Fuel consumption – petroleum refining (BAU; NDC) Fuel consumption (TJ) 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels 7.1.3. Manufacturing industry In the BAU, activity trend evolves proportionally to the GDP forecast. The energy mix remains the same on the entire time series, mainly relying on petroleum products. 89 Figure 30. Fuel consumption – manufacturing industry (BAU) Fuel Consumption - Manufacturing industry (TJ) 22 000 20 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid fuels Solid fuels Gaseous fuels Biomass The NDC scenario takes into account the EE target in 2030. Total energy consumption (excluding electricity) is reduced by 18% in 2030 between the BAU and the NDC scenarios. Liquid fuels are reduced by 75% between the two scenarios as natural gas consumption is increasing. Figure 31. Fuel consumption – manufacturing industry (NDC) Fuel Consumption - Manufacturing industry (TJ) 22 000 20 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid fuels Solid fuels Gaseous fuels Biomass 7.1.4. Aviation Modelisation is based on LEAP assumptions: differences between the two scenarios are marginal. According to the report “Feasibility Study for an airport in the South of Albania” Republic of Albania - Civil Aviation Authority (2019), a correlation factor of 2 can be applied to the GDP growth. 90 Table 30. Forecast of Correlation coefficients and GDP growth for aviation This leads to a doubling of national consumption between 2016 and 2030 which is consistent with the coming opening of airports in the country. Figure 32. Fuel consumption – domestic and international aviation (BAU; NDC) Fuel consumptions (TJ) 1 800,0 1 600,0 1 400,0 1 200,0 1 000,0 800,0 600,0 400,0 200,0 - International National 7.1.5. Road transport Modelisation is based on LEAP assumptions distinguishing passenger and freight transport. The biofuel share is between 3 to 4% of the blend in the recent years and increases up to 10% in 2030 as officially endorsed. Figure 33. Fuel consumption – road transport (BAU) Fuel consumptions (TJ) - BAU 60 000,00 50 000,00 40 000,00 30 000,00 20 000,00 10 000,00 0,00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid fuels Biomass Natural Gas 91 NDC modelisation based on LEAP assumptions takes int account EE improvement. Natural gas is expected to enter the market from 2026 onwards. These assumptions were complemented by increasing penetration of electrical vehicles and bicycle ride lengths reducing overall passenger vehicles fuel consumptions by 14.5%. Total fuel consumption (excluding electricity) decreases by 16.6% between the BAU and NDC scenarios in 2030. Figure 34. Fuel consumption – road transport (NDC) 7.1.6. Activity data – Commercial Modelisation is based on LEAP assumptions. The consumption is expected to increase by 136% between 2016 and 2030 due to the increase of heated surfaces (m²). This increase is driven by LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas) consumption as the wood consumption increase is expected to be limited to 15% maximum on the same period. Figure 35. Fuel consumption – commercial (BAU) Fuel consumptions (TJ) 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid Fuels Biomass In the NDC scenario, the consumption is expected to decrease by 17.3% in 2030 compared to the BAU scenario. Natural gas will enter the market from 2023 onwards to reach almost 70% of the total fuel consumption (excluding electricity) in 2030. 92 Figure 36. Fuel consumption – commercial (NDC) Fuel consumptions (TJ) 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Liquid fuels Wood Natural Gas 7.1.7. Activity data – Residential Modelisation is based on LEAP assumptions considering hot water, cooking, lighting, appliances, & air conditioning cooling. Energy consumption growth is based on the number of household growth (considering population and household size). The consumption is expected to increase by 54% between 2016 and 2030 due to the increase of heated surfaces (m²). This increase is driven by LPG consumption as the wood consumption increase is expected to be limited to 15% maximum on the same period (the share of wood drops from 64%in 2016 to 48% in 2030). Figure 37. Fuel consumption – residential (BAU) The total fuel consumption (excluding electricity) in 2030 is expected to be reduced by 19.3% between the BAU and NDC scenarios. The mix will evolve as biomass and liquid fuels consumptions will be reduced and compensated by natural gas from 2023 onwards which will reach 30% of total fuel consumption in 2030. 93 Figure 38. Fuel consumption – residential (NDC) Fuel consumptions (TJ) 14 000,0 12 000,0 10 000,0 8 000,0 6 000,0 4 000,0 2 000,0 - Liquid Fuels Wood Natural gas 7.1.8. Activity data – Agriculture Modelisation is based on LEAP. Energy consumption growth is based on GDP forecast, final energy intensity and energy mix variations. The consumption is expected to increase by 78% between 2016 and 2030, liquid fuels increasing from 64% to 88% in the mix. Figure 39. Fuel consumption – agriculture (BAU) Fuel consumptions (TJ) 3 500,0 3 000,0 2 500,0 2 000,0 1 500,0 1 000,0 500,0 - Liquid fuels Biomass Energy consumption is expected to decrease by 19% in 2030 between the NDC and BAUs scenarios, Natural gas being introduced in 2026 to reach 30% of total fuel consumption in 2030. 94 Figure 40. Fuel consumption – agriculture (NDC) 7.2. IPPU The BAU scenario is based on the GDP trend for all sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry. For F-gases, emissions are based on a model considering imports, bank, equipment market, refrigerant market share, equipment production, average characteristics of equipment, etc. The impact of the Kigali amendment ratification is considered in the BAU. In the NDC scenario, no improvements are expected concerning emissions from industrial processes - the scenario is the same as the BAU (this does not include energy consumption which is covered under the energy sector). 7.3. Waste For the landfilling subsector, in the BAU scenario, it is assumed that no methane capture system is installed until 2030 and that the amount of waste produced per year and per capita remains stable. Figure 41. amount of waste disposed in landfills - BAU In the NDC scenario, it is assumed that methane capture systems are installed between 2020 et 2030 and it is considered a decrease of the amount of biodegradable waste going on landfills. 95 Figure 42. amount of waste disposed in landfills - NDC For the composting subsector, in the BAU scenario, the amount of composted waste per inhabitant per year between 2017 and 2030 is considered equal to the average of the last three (03) years from the inventory. This average is applied to the evolution of the national population from 2017 to 2030. Figure 43. amount of composted waste - BAU In the NDC scenario, according to the waste national management plan, it is assumed that the amount of composted waste will increase. Figure 44. amount of composted waste - NDC For the incineration subsector, in the BAU scenario, the amount of incinerated waste per inhabitant per year between 2017 and 2030 is considered equal to the average of the last three 96 (03) years from the inventory. This average is applied to the evolution of the national population from 2017 to 2030. Figure 45. amount of waste incinerated - BAU Figure 46. amount of waste incinerated - NDC In the NDC scenario, the total amount of clinical waste incinerated is considered constant until 2030. It is considered that the incineration of MSW started in 2017. Between 2017 and 2021, the amount of incinerated MSW increased slowly du to testing phases. Then, between 2021 and 2030, it is assumed an important rise of the total amount of incinerated MSW associated among other things with the diversion of waste from landfills. For the open burning subsector, in the BAU scenario, the amount of burned waste per inhabitant per year between 2017 and 2030 is considered equal to the average of the last three (03) years from the inventory. This average is applied to the evolution of the national population from 2017 to 2030. 97 Figure 47. amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) open-burned - BAU In the NDC scenario, it is considered a decrease of the open burned waste until 2020 then a little rise between 2020 and 2030 in accordance with the uncollected amount of waste to the waste national management plan. Figure 48. amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) open-burned - NDC For the wastewater treatment subsector, in the NDC scenario, the analysis considers a stagnation of the total industry product evolution until 2030, and a stagnation of the connection rate to the anaerobic shallow lagoons. Figure 49. amount of organically degradable material in wastewater - BAU 98 For the wastewater treatment subsector, in the NDC scenario, the analysis considers an increase of the total industry product evolution until 2030 estimated from national data and the GDP growth rate. Concerning the connection rate to the anaerobic shallow lagoons for the urban population, it is considered a little increase until 2030. Figure 50. amount of organically degradable material in wastewater - NDC The following table presents hypothesis applied for the NDC scenario in the Waste sector. Table 31. Hypothesis used for the NDC scenario Sub- N° Hypothesis Targets References sector Landfilling 1 The distribution of the 2020: 62.1% United Nations, Department of population between rural and 2025: 66.1% Economic and Social Affairs, national territories is estimated 2030: 69.5% Population Division (2018). by 2030 according to UN data. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, Online Edition. Landfilling 2 The total population until 2030 is 2020: 2,859 thousands inhabitants TNC and communications with estimated according to reported 2025: 2,845 thousands inhabitants national inventory teams national data. 2030: 2,831 thousands inhabitants Landfilling 3 The total amount of waste going In 2030 biodegradable the amount of municipal . Governmental Decree No.418, on landfills is calculated by waste going in landfill is reduced to 35% of the dated 27.05.2020 ; considering the directive total amount (by weight) of biodegradable Communications with national "Governmental Decree No.418, municipal waste produced in year 2010. inventory teams dated 27.05.2020". Every year between 2016 and 2020, we consider that there is a similar decrease as the one observed between 2015 and 2016. Amounts for the period 2021 and 2029 are estimated by linear interpolation based on known 2030 value. Landfilling 4 The amount of methane Beginning of CH4 capture in 2025 and linear TNC and communications with recovered from SWDS is evolution until the capture of 10% of 1.34 national inventory teams estimated by considering data million tonnes of CH4 in 2030. from the GACMO tool. 99 Landfilling 5 The following trends are considered to remain similar after 2016 : - the distribution of Municipal Solid Waste by management practices, - the estimation of Industrial waste going on landfills, - the amount of sludge generated in wastewater treatment plants going on landfills, - we consider bulk waste and not waste differentiated by category, Composting 6 An increase in the amount of According to the national plan, it is estimated Albanian Waste National composted waste is considered that the amount of composted waste will grow Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste in accordance with the national by 34% between 2017 and 2016, by 29% projection waste management plan. between 2017 and 2018, by 20% between 2018 and 2019, by 15% between 2019 and 2020 then by 3% per year until 2030. This growth is applied to the amount of composted waste estimated in the Albanian inventory. Composting 7 The emission factors associated Expert judgement with CH4 and N2O are considered to be constant. Incineration 8 The total amount of clinical Expert judgement waste incinerated is considered constant until 2030. Likewise, the emission factors associated with clinical waste are also. Incineration 9 Start of MSW incineration in . Communication with Albania 2017 (only for testing) and . Albanian Waste National gradual increase between 2021 Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste and 2030. projection Open 10 We assume that the amount of It is estimated that the amount of composted Albanian Waste National burning waste burned in open fires will waste will decrease by 31% between 2017 and Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste decrease in the same way to the 2016, by 46% between 2017 and 2018, by 37% projection decrease in the quantity of between 2018 and 2019. After 2019, it is waste not collected in Albania in considered a grow by 1.5% per year until 2030. accordance with the national This growth is applied to the amount of open waste management plan. burned waste estimated in the Albanian inventory. Open 11 We consider the emission Expert judgement burning factors of CH4 and constant N2O. Wastewater 12 The distribution of the 2020: 62.1% United Nations, Department of treatment population between rural and 2025: 66.1% Economic and Social Affairs, national territories is estimated 2030: 69.5% Population Division (2018). by 2030 according to UN data. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, Online Edition. Wastewater 13 The total population until 2030 is 2020: 2,859 thousands inhabitants TNC and communications with treatment estimated according to reported 2025: 2,845 thousands inhabitants national inventory teams national data. 2030: 2,831 thousands inhabitants Wastewater 14 Regarding the different Increase of the rate of connection of the urban TNC and communications with treatment wastewater treatment systems, population to shallow anaerobic lagoons. national inventory teams no development in rural areas is 2009: 1.63% considered in accordance with communications with Albanian 2016: 1.71% experts. 2017: 1.73% Considering the establishment 2020: 1.76% of 2 new small wastewater treatment plants, an increase in 2025: 1.82% the rate of connection of the 2030: 1.88% urban population to shallow anaerobic lagoons is considered. This development is considered similar to that observed between 2009 and 2016. 100 Wastewater 15 The total industry product Increase of the total industry product evolution TNC and communications with treatment evolution until 2030 is estimated until 2030 estimated from national data and the national inventory teams from national data and the GDP GDP growth rate (except for Petroleum growth rate. Refineries, data provide from energy sector). The following data are respectively about 2016 and 2030. Beer & Malt (t/yrs): 862 026 - 1 366 209 Dairy Products (t/yrs): 108 988 - 172 734 Meat & Poultry (t/yrs): 159 819 - 253 295 Pulp & Paper (t/yrs): 2 327 - 3 688 Wine & Vinegar (t/yrs): 22 420 - 35 533 Wastewater 16 The annual per capita protein 2016: 35,04 kg/person/yr Food and Agriculture treatment consumption from 2017 and 2017: 43,11 kg/person/yr Organization of the United 2018 comes from FAOSTAT Nations (FAO) - Statistics data. After 2018, we consider 2018: 42,22 kg/person/yr Division (ESS) the average of 2016, 2017 and 2019-2030: 40,12 kg/person/yr 2018. Wastewater 17 All other parameters are Expert judgement treatment considered constant until 2030. Sub-sector N° Actions Targets References Landfilling W1 Reduction in the amount In 2030 biodegradable the amount of . Governmental Decree No.418, of waste going to landfill. municipal waste going in landfill is dated 27.05.2020 reduced to 35% of the total amount (by TNC and communications with weight) of biodegradable municipal waste national inventory teams produced in year 2010. Every year between 2016 and 2020, we consider that there is a similar decrease as the one observed between 2015 and 2016. Amounts for the period 2021 and 2029 are estimated by linear interpolation based on calculated 2030 value. Landfilling W2 Setting up of methane Beginning of CH4 capture in 2025 and TNC and communications with capture installation. linear evolution until the capture of 10% national inventory teams of 1.34 million m3 of CH4 in 2030. Composting W3 Increase in the amount of From 2016 to 2017: +34% Albanian Waste National Strategy composted waste. From 2017 to 2018: +29% - Table A5.1 - Waste projection From 2018 to 2019: +20% From 2019 to 2020: +15% Then +3% per year until 2030 Incineration W4 Stagnation of the total . Communications with national amount of clinical waste inventory teams. Albanian Waste incinerated. National Strategy - Table A5.1 - Waste projection Incineration W5 Start of MSW incineration 2017: start in 2017 (only for testing) 2017 - 2018: +100% and gradual increase 2018 - 2019: +50% between 2021 and 2030. 2019 - 2020: +33% 2020 - 2021: +25% 2021 - 2030: +27079% Open burning W6 Decrease in the amount From 2016 to 2017: -31% Albanian Waste National Strategy of waste burned in open From 2017 to 2018: -46% - Table A5.1 - Waste projection fires. From 2018 to 2019: -37% Then +1.5% per year until 2030 Wastewater W7 No evolution regarding Increase of the rate of connection of the TNC and communications with treatment wastewater treatment urban population to shallow anaerobic national inventory teams methods in rural areas. lagoons. Increase of the rate of 2009: 1.63% connection of the urban population to shallow 2016: 1.71% anaerobic lagoons. 2017: 1.73% 2020: 1.76% 2025: 1.82% 2030: 1.88% 101 Wastewater W8 Increase of the total The following data are respectively about TNC and communications with treatment industry product 2016 and 2030. national inventory teams evolution until 2030 Beer & Malt (t/yrs): 862 026 - 1 366 209 estimated from national data and the GDP growth Dairy Products (t/yrs): 108 988 - 172 734 rate. Meat & Poultry (t/yrs): 159 819 - 253 295 Pulp & Paper (t/yrs): 2 327 - 3 688 Wine & Vinegar (t/yrs): 22 420 - 35 533 Wastewater W9 Increase of the annual 2009 - 2016: 35.04 kg/person/yr Food and Agriculture treatment per capita protein 2017: 43.11 kg/person/yr Organization of the United consumption estimated 2018: 42.22 kg/person/yr Nations (FAO) - Statistics Division from FAOSTAT data. 2019 - 2030: 40.12 kg/person/yr (ESS) 7.4. AFOLU 7.4.1. Agriculture 7.4.1.1. Activity data – Livestock population The evolution of livestock population for years 2017 to 2019 has been based on the evolution observed in the FAO stat data (available until 2019). For projected years (2020-2030), the assumptions presented in the 4NC on livestock numbers have been used: Table 32. Projection in the number of livestock for the period 2010-2050 The same assumptions have been made for 2030, the years between have been interpolated. Table 33. Methods used to project livestock numbers Animal category Method used to project activity data Dairy cows Total cattle = 435,000 in 2030. The share of dairy cattle in 2016 has been maintained (around 72% of dairy cattle) Other cattle Total cattle = 435,000 in 2030. The share of other cattle in 2016 has been maintained (around 28% of other cattle) Buffalo Constant Sheep Total sheep = 1,742,000 in 2030 Goats Total goats = 713,000 in 2030 102 Horses Total Equidae = 75,000 in 2030. The share of horses in 2016 has been maintained (around 34% of total Equidae) Mules and asses Total Equidae = 75,000 in 2030. The share of mules and asses in 2016 has been maintained (around 66% of total Equidae) Swine Total swine = 199,000 in 2030 Chickens Total poultry = 10,596,000 in 2030 The global assumption is an increase in livestock population to comply with the objective to promote the Albanian agricultural production. No change has been made for livestock numbers between the BAU and NDC scenario. Figure 51. projected data for livestock numbers of sheep and goats 2,500,000 Sheep and Goat population - Projected data 2,000,000 1,500,000 Sheep 1,000,000 Goats 500,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Figure 52. projected data for livestock numbers of chickens 12,000,000 Chickens population - Projected data 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 103 Figure 53. projected data for livestock numbers of cattle and other animals 400,000 Other animals population - Projected data Dairy cows 350,000 300,000 Other cattle 250,000 Buffalo 200,000 150,000 Horses 100,000 Mules and 50,000 asses Swine 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 For the BAU scenario, it is assumed that:  The animals’ feeding and associated productivity are constant, implying no change in the nitrogen excretion rate or enteric methane emission factor.  The distribution of animals per manure management systems is maintained through time. 7.4.1.2. Mitigation actions – Livestock Contrary to the BAU, for the NDC scenario, improved feeding techniques for animal in housing (where feeding can be controlled) are considered. The action corresponds to the action: A5 - Optimizing animal feeding in order to reduce N2O and CH4 emissions  For this action, only cattle in housing is considered. The improved feeding techniques lead to:  A decrease in nitrogen excretion rate (N inputs from feeding fitting better to animal needs). A 10% reduction for improved feeding is assumed. A decrease in enteric CH4 (add of fat in feeding): according to the GACMO (Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model) tool, this can lead to a reduction of 4% of CH4 emissions for 1% of fat added. For the first sub-action (N inputs from feeding fitting better to animal needs), it is considered that it can be applied to all the cattle in housing. For the second sub-action, it is considered that only 50% of the herd is housed, as it can be costly. Another mitigation action is considered: Increasing the time spent in pasture (see action A4 in table 3). This action applies only to cattle. In 2016, dairy cows spent 18% of their time in pasture. It is considered that in 2030, they will spend 25% of their time grazing. In 2016, other cattle spent 20% of their time in pasture. It is considered that in 2030, they will spend 25% of their time grazing. This action increase carbon sequestration in pasture. 7.4.1.3. Activity data – Crop area, production and fertilization For the calculation of nitrogen from crop residues, the following crops are considered: wheat, maize, oats, hop, barley, rye, dry beans, potatoes, vetch. From 2009 to 2019, area and production data are taken from FAO stat. For all these crops, except for wheat, a constant area 104 through time has been considered then. For wheat, the area is decreasing since 2009, and it is assumed that it would stabilize around 55,000 ha in 2030. Areas of crops and crop production are similar in the BAU and NDC scenario Figure 54. projected data for crop areas 90,000 Wheat and maize areas (ha) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Wheat 30,000 Maize 20,000 10,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 18,000 Oats, hop, barley and rye areas (ha) 16,000 14,000 Oats 12,000 10,000 Hop 8,000 Barley 6,000 Rye 4,000 2,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 16,000 Dry beans, potatoes and vetch areas (ha) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Dried beans 4,000 Potatoes 2,000 Vetch 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 The following assumptions have been made regarding the evolution of the average yield of these crops: Table 34. Assumptions regarding crops average yields Crops Method used to project activity data Based on historical trend Wheat Constant yield +1% between 2009 and 2019 105 Maize Yield + 10% between 2009 and 2030 +26.6% between 2009 and 2019 Oats Yield + 5% between 2009 and 2030 +9.9% between 2009 and 2019 Hop Yield + 5% between 2009 and 2030 +13.4% between 2009 and 2019 Barley Yield + 5% between 2009 and 2030 +9.4% between 2009 and 2019 Rye Constant yield -25% between 2009 and 2019 Dried beans Yield + 5% between 2009 and 2030 +11.3% between 2009 and 2019 Potatoes Yield + 5% between 2009 and 2030 +16.7% between 2009 and 2019 Vetch Constant yield -8% between 2009 and 2019 Figure 55. projected data for crop production 500,000,000 Wheat and maize production (kg) 400,000,000 Wheat 300,000,000 Maize 200,000,000 100,000,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Oats, hop, barley and rye production (kg) 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 Oats 25,000,000 Hop 20,000,000 Barley 15,000,000 Rye 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Dry beans, potatoes and vetch production (kg) 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 Dried beans 150,000,000 Potatoes 100,000,000 Vetch 50,000,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 106 The total agricultural area is increasing through time (hypothesis presented in the FOLU sector), at 16% between 2016 and 2030. Mineral fertilization was projected based on this area evolution, assuming that the average nitrogen rate is constant for the BAU scenario. The following assumptions have been made regarding nitrogen inputs: Table 35. Methods used to project nitrogen inputs Parameter Method used to project activity data N from mineral fertilizers Based on the total agricultural evolution from FOLU (+16% between 2016 and 2030) N from compost Constant N from sewage Constant N from other organic Constant fertilizer Urea application (tons) Same evolution that the one from total mineral N fertilizer applied The nitrogen deposited by grazing animal and in manure spread is estimated according to the IPCC methodology. Figure 56. Projected data for nitrogen inputs 120,000,000 N inputs (kg N) 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Fcr- Crop residues (kg N) Prp- Urine and dung deposited by sheep and others (kg N) Prp- Urine and dung deposited by cattle, poultry and pigs (kg N) Fon- Organic fertilizer applied to soils (kg N) Fsn- Inorganic fertilizers (kg N) 107 2016 2030 Fsn- Inorganic fertilizers (kg N) 8% 8% Fon- Organic fertilizer applied to soils (kg N) 37% 24% Prp- Urine and dung 29% 44% deposited by cattle, poultry and pigs (kg N) Prp- Urine and dung deposited by sheep and others (kg N) 8% 8% Fcr- Crop residues (kg 18% 16% N) The area of histosols is maintained for the whole period. 7.4.1.4. Activity data – Burning Two types of burning are included: burning of crop residues and pasture burning. The data are taken from the EFFIS reports. For crop residues burning, the average rate of burning has been estimated for 2009-2018 for wheat: 1.3% of the area is burnt. The rate has been maintained for the whole period. For pasture burning, the average area burnt for 2009-2018 (5,154 ha) has been used for projected years. There is no difference between the BAU and NDC scenario for this smaller source of emissions. 7.4.2. FOLU The following chapters present in detail the assumptions for the BAU scenario of the FOLU sector. The BAU scenario considers the continuation of the situation and trends of the recent decade covered by the inventory: 7.4.2.1. Forest land Forest area had been slightly decreasing (-0.1% between 2009 and 2016), mostly via the decrease of coppice forest. However, there was an increase in 2016. These are no significant long-term changes so the BAU scenario considers the forest area to remain stable with no further afforestation of deforestation in the period 2016-2035. For high forests, the mean area of the period 2013-2016 is used for all years after 2016. For coppice and shrubs, the value from the year 2016 is kept, since there is no clear trend in the period 2013-2016. 108 Figure 57. Projected data for forest areas In the BAU scenario, the forest remains a net source for the whole period. CO2 absorptions from forest growth is kept stable since forest area is stable and parameters are kept the same. Fuelwood harvesting level increases in consistency with the Energy sector, which projects an increase of +14% of TJ of fuelwood consumption between 2016 and 2030. This leads to an increase in fuelwood removals in forest of also +14% between 2016 and 2030. Figure 58. Projected data for fuelwood harvest Emissions due to wood harvesting are also kept constant in the BAU scenario. Emissions from disturbances are calculated through two elements:  The dumpings of fuelwood (that is left in forest due to lack of efficiency of the harvest), which is a loss of C from the biomass. This value is kept constant, in line with the mean value of estimated dumpings for the inventory period.  The fires. EFFIS dataset is used for the years 2017 and 2018. Two peaks of fires are estimated: 2011-2012 and 2017. From 2019 on it is assumed a hypothesis of stability from the mean area affected by fires (excluding the peaks), for the BAU scenario. Future big fires episodes cannot be predicted and so they are excluded of the projection. For the fires, C losses lead to CO2 emissions (reported in forest land) but also the combustion lead to CH4 and N2O emissions (reported in biomass burning). 109 Figure 59. Projected data for forest disturbances Area affected by disturbances (ha/y) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Coppice Forest ha/y 20,000 High Forest ha/y 15,000 Shrubs ha/y 10,000 5,000 0 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 7.4.2.2. Cropland Cropland areas decreased regularly at -1,500 ha/y between 2009 and 2016. However, the dynamics of the different subcategories were very different: cultivated cropland and fruit trees were increasing, abandoned cropland was stable, and uncultivated cropland was decreasing. In the BAU scenario, the rate of these changes has been kept constant for all subcategories, except for uncultivated cropland, where the decrease of the areas was leading to the total loss of the category in 2025. Once a minimum threshold of 10,000 ha (10% of the initial area of 2009) is hit, the assumption is that it remains at this level after. The CO2 absorption from fruit trees continues its trend after 2016. Figure 60. Projected CO2 absorptions for cropland 110 7.4.2.1. Grassland Grassland areas have been increasing during the period 2009-2016 (+12,000 ha, i.e. +2%, during the period), and a constant annual increase of 4,239 ha/y from 2011 to 2016, mostly from the conversion of Other Land. Actually, this conversion is likely to be from other conversion types (Forest to grassland, Cropland to grassland…) but with the current methodology to monitor land- use evolutions this is not known, and Other Land category is used as a remaining category. This trend (+4,239 ha/y) is continued in the BAU scenario. It does not lead to any new emissions and removals in the BAU scenario. 7.4.2.2. Wetland Wetland areas are stable, at 135 000 ha each year except for 2016 when it reaches 136,511 ha. This increase in 2016 is not significant enough to derive an increasing trend from it. Therefore, in the BAU scenario, the area remains constant at this 2016 level. There is no carbon stock change associated with this category in the historical inventory and in the BAU scenario. 7.4.2.3. Settlements Settlements area increases in the inventory period and this trend is continued for the projection. However, there is no carbon stock change associated with this category in the historical inventory and in the BAU scenario. 7.4.2.4. Other land “Other land areas” is used as a remaining category. However, there is no carbon stock change associated with this category in the historical inventory and in the BAU scenario. 7.4.3. FOLU NDC scenario The following presents in detail the assumptions for the NDC scenario of the FOLU sector. The NDC scenario considers some specific mitigation actions that aim to reduce emissions by sources and to increase absorptions by sinks. The BAU scenario is used as a baseline scenario, and the mitigation actions that make the NDC scenario differ from this baseline. The following mitigation actions are taken into account: Table 36. Summary of the mitigation actions for the FOLU sector N° Name Reference (BAU) Target (NDC) L1 Energy: changes in fuel mix, Fuelwood consumption decreases by Fuelwood consumption decreases by 4% reduction of use of fuelwood. 14% between 2016 and 2030 between 2016 and 2030 Moratorium on fuelwood L2 New afforestation areas 0 ha + 300 ha / y. L3 Improved management and mean risk of forest fires at 10 000 ha / progressive reduction of 5% of this risk. monitoring to prevent wildfires year (less than bigger episodes but slightly higher than the other years to The exclusion of big events from the represent an increasing risk). projection is made for both BAU and The exclusion of big events from the NDC scenario so it does not lead to a projection is made for both BAU and discrepancy between the NDC and the 111 NDC scenario so it does not lead to a BAU. discrepancy between the NDC and the BAU. L4 Improving efficiency of No reduction of losses reduction of the losses increases fuelwood harvest progressively from -0.25% in 2021 to - 3% in 2030. L5 Improved sustainable forest No area with improved management progressively on 5000ha per year + management higher sequestration factor L6 Improved sustainable No area with improved management an increasing area of the total grassland management to grasslands, from 2% in 2021 to 20% + enhance carbon sequestration higher sequestration factor and protect biodiversity L7 Improved sustainable cropland No area with improved management Development of agroforestry is projected management to be progressively increasing to 100ha in 2030. Improvement of agricultural soil practices help storing carbon in soils in areas that increase progressively to 20% of cultivated cropland in 2030. 7.4.3.1. Energy: changes in fuel mix, reduction of use of fuelwood. Moratorium on fuelwood (L1) As fuelwood harvesting is causing the majority of carbon losses in forests, to avoid and even eliminate illegal cuttings is targeted in different policies. Plus, the action on energy mix also helps to reduce this pressure on the forest resources. The evolution of fuelwood harvest is directly consistent with projections applied in the Energy sector regarding the evolution of fuel mix. The fuelwood consumption increases by 14% between 2016 and 2030 in the BAU scenario, while it decreases by 4% in the NDC scenario. Figure 61. Projected fuelwood harvest for the NDC scenario 7.4.3.2. New afforestation areas (L2) Total forest area has been almost stable, slightly decreasing (-0.1% between 2009 and 2016) in the past. Moreover, there is a large area of abandoned cropland, of shrubland and other land (with sparse vegetation) that could be afforested, naturally or via plantation programs. There is a significant opportunity for afforestation and hence, for more carbon sequestration in growing trees. In the TNC (2016), two afforestation scenarios were applied: 500 ha/y and 1000 ha/y. 112 Based on national circumstances, and considering the current trends, potential for afforestation areas is estimated at 300 ha per year. Therefore, it can be considered that it is not the lack of potential area that is an issue, but the costs and organizational and monitoring costs of the plantation programs and the protection of growing trees that is at stake. For the NDC scenario, these ambitious afforestation areas are considered but with an increasing progressive rate (from 100 ha in 2021, to 300 ha/y from 2025 on). 7.4.3.3. Improved management and monitoring to prevent wildfires (L3) While it is not possible to predict future episodes of wildfires, the improvement of monitoring and management of forest fires, as mentioned in national policy and plans (such as ECCS) will help reduce this risk. While the BAU scenario considers a mean risk of forest fires at 10 000 ha / year (less than bigger episodes but slightly higher than the other years to represent an increasing risk), the NDC considers a progressive reduction of 5% of this risk. Exceptional events that cannot be predicted are excluded from the calculation. A background level is calculated, in line with the way Natural disturbances are treated in the Kyoto Protocol or the EU FOLU regulation. Albania pledge to continue efforts to reduce the scope and intensity of wildfires. This exclusion of big events from the projection is made for both BAU and NDC scenario so it does not lead to a discrepancy between the NDC and the BAU. Moreover, in the NDC scenario, the prevention of wildfires for the background level is progressive and only reaches 5% in 2030 (compared to the BAU scenario). Figure 62. projected forest disturbances for the NDC scenario 7.4.3.1. Improving efficiency of fuelwood harvest (L4) While the total annual harvested volume of fuelwood is estimated at a mean of 2.66 millions of m3 per year (FAO estimation), to be consistent with the Energy figures, it is estimated in the 113 inventory, only a mean value of 1,09 millions of m3 of fuelwood harvested and actually used. It means there is a loss of efficiency in the harvesting process and that approximately 60% of the wood harvested is dumped. Improving the efficiency on use of fuelwood results in a decrease in wood dumpings. The reduction of these losses increases progressively from -0.25% in 2021 to - 3% in 2030, based on expert judgment with a conservative approach. 7.4.3.2. Improved sustainable forest management (L5) This action aims to enhance carbon sequestration and protect biodiversity, including reforestation and restoration of degraded areas; development of official and certified wood harvesting, wood products and non-timber forest products Increase the protection areas (including the creation of natural corridors along rivers and ecotourism). This is mentioned in several national policy documents (ECCS; NSDI-II; NTP; IPARD; LANFPF; SPDBP; PDFS). Improved forestry management, applied progressively on 5000ha per year, allows a higher growth rate for the tree biomass in these areas. While the average annual above-ground biomass growth [Gw] is of 0.854 tdm/ha/y for coppice and high forest, and 1,0 tdm/ha/y for shrubs; a higher growth factor of 2,3 tdm/ha/y, from IPCC default values relevant for the country, is used. 7.4.3.3. Improved sustainable grassland management (L6) This action is done to enhance carbon sequestration and protect biodiversity. Grassland mineral soil is improved by additional inputs from agricultural management (livestock management, more inputs, as seen in Agriculture sector). An input factor (Fi) of 1.11 is applied, using IPCC default values of table 5.5, to an increasing area of the total grasslands, from 2% in 2021 to 20% in 2030, based on expert judgment with national experts about available areas. 7.4.3.4. Improved sustainable cropland management (L7) Development of agroforestry, as a widely recognized mitigation and adaptation opportunity, mentioned in national policy documents (ECCS; NSDI-II: NCCS), is projected to be progressively increasing to 100ha in 2030. Improvement of agricultural soil practices help storing carbon in soils in areas that increase progressively to 20% of cultivated cropland in 2030, based on expert judgment with national experts about available areas. A land use factor (FLU) of 0.8 and a management factor (FMG) of 1.02 is applied on these areas, using IPCC default values of table IPCC 2006 guidelines vol. 4 chapter 5 table 5.5. 114

Annex 2. Adaptation 7.5. Map related to the presentation of the Albanian coast Map 3. Coastal tourism destinations Source: Integrated Cross-sectorial Plan for the Coast, NATP, 2015 115 7.6. Graphs, figures and maps related to climate variability and change Figure 63. Mean yearly and 10-year rolling average temperature for Albania (1901-2016) 13 12.5 12 11.5 °C 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 1901 1905 1909 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Mean 10-year rolling mean Source: World Bank CCKP, 2020. Table 37. Projected change in monthly temperature (°C) for Albania for 2080-2099 (median and range) Month RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 January 0.9 (0-1.9) 1.8 (0.5-2.9) 2.0 (1.1-3.2) 3.5 (2.1-4.7) February 0.9 (-0.1-2.4) 1.9 (0.2-2.9) 2.2 (0.4-3) 3.4 (2.1-5.2) March 1.1 (-0.1-2.1) 1.9 (0.5-2.5) 2.0 (0.8-3.2) 3.2 (2.3-5.2) April 1.1 (-0.2-2.6) 2.0 (0.8-3.2) 2.4 (0.8-3.8) 3.7 (2.3-5.9) May 1.0 (0.2-2.7) 2.1 (1-3.8) 2.7 (1.3-4.6) 4.4 (2.4-7.4) June 1.5 (-0.1-3.3) 2.6 (0.9-4.4) 3.3 (1.3-5.2) 5.4 (2.9-8.9) July 1.5 (0-3.8) 2.8 (1.5-5.2) 3.6 (1.9-6.2) 6.0 (3.6-10.2) August 1.7 (0.1-3.9) 3.1 (1.3-5.7) 3.8 (2-6.3) 6.1 (3.5-9.9) September 1.4 (0.3-3.1) 2.7 (1-4.4) 3.5 (1.9-5.4) 5.3 (3.5-8.6) October 1.2 (0.2-2.3) 2.3 (1.3-3.4) 2.7 (1.4-4.5) 4.3 (2.7-6.9) November 1.3 (-0.2-1.9) 2.1 (0.5-2.8) 2.5 (1-3.5) 3.5 (2.5-5.1) December 1.0 (-0.2-2.2) 2.0 (-0.1-2.9) 2.3 (1-3.4) 3.4 (2-4.5) Mean annual change 1.21 2.28 2.75 4.36 Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2020 116 Figure 64. Annual temperature anomalies Figure 65. Tropical nights (>20°C) in Albania (1986-2099) Source: World Bank CCKP, 2020. Figure 66. Warm Spell Duration Index in Albania (2040-2059) Source: World Bank CCKP, 2020. Map 4. Average maximum temperatures (by 2050) baseline RCP2.6 RCP 8.5 Temp (°C) 117 Map 5. Average minimum temperatures (by 2050) baseline RCP2.6 RCP 8.5 Temp (°C) Figure 67. Average precipitation for Vlorë (1931-2007) 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 mm 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Source: E. Bruci. Draft report on Climate vulnerability and expected climate changes for the Vjosa River Basin, 4NC 118 Figure 68. Expected changes in precipitation (%), annual and seasonal for the Coast of Albania Source: TNC Figure 69. Changes and variability of annual precipitation anomalies (%) for Lezhë (median, as well as upper and lower bounds in dotted lines) 60 40 precip.changes (%) 20 0 -20 -40 year -60 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 2051 2055 2059 2063 2067 2071 2075 2079 2083 2087 2091 2095 2099 RCP2.6 M RCP4.5 M RCP6.0 M RCP8.5 M Source: TNC 119 Figure 70. Sea level anomalies for Albania (1993-2015) Source: World Bank CCKP, 2020. Figure 71. Projection of sea level rise for the Drini-Mati River Delta (thick lines as median and shadowed areas as lower and upper bounds) and the World (thin lines) Source: World Bank, Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal, 2014. 120 Figure 72. The coastline prediction (Lezhe District) for the time horizon:1-2030. (SLR=8cm); 2- 2050 (SLR= 16cm); 3-2080 (SLR=35 cm); 4-2100 (SLR=0.49) Source: Synthesis report for Project “Identification and implementation of adaptation response measures in the Drini- Mati River deltas” (Based on AR4 projections) Figure 73. Projections of sea level rise for the Vjosa River basin (median, as well as upper and lower bounds in dotted lines) Source: 4NC&1BUR, Draft Report III: Climate vulnerability and expected climate changes for the Vjosa River Basin, 2020. 121 7.7. Figure related to sectoral vulnerability Figure 74. TCI projections for Vlore 4NC&1BUR, Draft Report III: Climate vulnerability and expected climate changes for the Vjosa River Basin, 2020. 122 7.8. Detailed prioritization table 7.8.1. Coastal zone Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation measures Develop- Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority ment level Weights 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Strengthenin Policy and Strengthen Institutional and organisational High Low Low Medium Medium High g the governance the strengthening of governmental structures enabling institutional in providing interconnection between environment framework planning authorities and other inter- (e.g. sectoral bodies that play a role in adapting coordination) against climate changes. Strengthen Development of territorial climate change High Low Low Medium Medium High the policy adaptation plans for the whole coast (an framework: integrated coastal zone adaptation plan), development specific regions (the 4 that were and prioritized) or cities enactment of Development of sectoral climate change High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very laws, adaptation plans for the 3 main sectors high policies, prioritized and the supporting sectors regulations (water, energy and and plans, agriculture/forestry/fisheries) including Development of risk management plans High Low Medium Medium Medium Very action plans, high and mainstreamin Mainstreaming climate change adaptation High Low Low Medium High Very into national cross-sectoral development high g. planning legislation, budget, regulations, procedures and tools Mainstreaming climate change adaptation High Low Medium Medium Medium Very into spatial/territorial development high planning legislation, regulations, procedures and tools, including building 123 Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation measures Develop- Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority ment level codes (orientation of constructions in areas protected by floods and marine erosion) Mainstreaming climate change adaptation High Medium High Medium Medium Very into sectoral development planning high legislation, regulations, procedures and tools (including building codes and standards for housing and other infrastructure) Enforcement of (revised) national, High Low Medium High Low High territorial and sector level legislation and regulations (building codes, water resources…) Increase Mobilization of financial resources for Medium Medium High Medium Medium Very funding for climate change adaptation (DR High climate preparedness, including for relocation) change Fiscal preparation, including an High Low Medium Medium Low High adaptation: emergency fund for disaster risk response, financing and recovery and reconstruction fiscal Establishment of incentives and subsidies High High High Medium Low Very planning for climate smart practices (e.g., climate high proofing buildings, energy efficient technologies) Developing insurance schemes and social High Low Low Low Low Medium protection systems for climate change- related disasters Scientific, Generating Support research on and monitoring of High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very technical scientific physical, biological and social aspects, High and societal evidence to including climate-related variables capacity support (including sea level and extreme weather decision- events), the erosion of the coast, coastal making on and marine ecosystems, vector-borne CCA diseases, natural resources (e.g. water and food quantity and quality, air quality), 124 Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation measures Develop- Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority ment level the built environment (e.g. location, density) and socio-economic and demographic aspects, including the modernization of monitoring equipment and systems Monitor vulnerability (conduct vulnerability High Low High Low Medium Very assessments and develop risk maps, at high the territorial and sectoral levels (including infrastructure)) Ensure effective communication of High Low Low High High Very monitoring information to relevant sectoral high and territorial actors, including through the development of end-to-end, people- centred and multi-hazard early warning (MHEW), including on floods Monitor and assess the implementation Medium Low High High High Very and results of adaptation programmes, high projects and actions, ensuring the engagement of women in this process Enhancing Capacity building (e.g. training, best High Medium High Medium High Very technical practice exchange, development of high capacity guidelines) on climate change, its impacts (e.g. ecosystems, buildings, water and energy infrastructure, health) and the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions of key stakeholders (e.g. policy and decision makers, planning authorities, implementers) Awareness Public information and awareness raising High Medium High Medium Medium Very raising (e.g. awareness raising campaigns) on high climate change, its impacts and the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions (e.g. heat related, resources efficiency, reclying) 125 Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation measures Develop- Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority ment level Climate Climate Climate Determining (green and blue) buffer zones High Medium High High Medium Very proofing change proofing in risk-prone areas (in the coast and in- high residential delivery coastal land) and buildings and Construction and maintenance of Medium Medium High Low Low Medium productive facilities to protective infrastructure (e.g. sea infrastructure prevent defences/concrete gates, increasing the , touristic further level of river beds (desilting, widening accommodati damage and channels) on and degradation Climate proofing buildings (covering of Medium High High Medium Low High assets and buildings’ walls and roofs with health (and thermoisolating materials, the using of other social) double glass windows and doors, green facilities roofs, natural ventilation, fire evacuation routes and fire protection systems) Adapting the Water Integrated water basin and watershed High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very supporting management (e.g. protection of forest in high built the upper areas of watersheds) environment Protection of ground water (e.g. High Low High Low Low High strengthening and modernization of evacuating system of salty waters, in order to impede their penetration deep in the land and their mixing with fresh waters) Construction and maintenance of High Low High High High Very rainwater harvesting infrastructure, high including water reserves Construction and maintenance of High Low High Medium Low High desalination plants Climate proofing existing water High Low High Medium Low High infrastructure (e.g. pipes) Increase the efficiency of water use, with a High High High Medium Medium Very focus on infrastructure high Energy Promote additional renewable energy High High High Low Low Very infrastructure to diversify source of power high generation 126 Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation measures Develop- Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority ment level Developing capacity to access energy High Medium Low Low Low Medium from neighbouring countries (incl. integration in ENTSO network) Promote energy efficiency, including the High High High Medium Low Very reduction of power losses in the high distribution network Climate proofing energy infrastructure High Low High Low Low High Transport Climate proofing transport infrastructure High Low High Medium Low High Telecommuni Climate proofing telecommunications High Low High Medium Low High cations infrastructure Adapting the Adopt Protection and restoration of existing High High High Medium Medium Very supporting integrated, forest/vegetation, reforestation high natural ecosystem- Managing/restoring river beds High High High High Low Very environment based (embankments) and reforesting river sides approaches to increase water retention high (EbA) and/or Protection and restoration of coastal High High High Medium Low Very nature based wetlands solutions high (NbS) Green approaches to the built High High Medium High High Very environment (green roofs, streets, high corridors and open spaces/ water open spaces) Protected Strengthen the system of protected areas, High High High Medium Medium Very areas including coastal and marine ecosystems, high for effective conservation and sustainable use Promote climate-smart and sustainable agriculture, High High High Medium Medium Very forestry and fisheries high Strengthening disaster risk management Strengthening capacity of civil High Low Medium Medium Medium Very defence/emergency units to respond to high extreme weather events (e.g. medical assistance during summertime) Displacement and relocation of high-risk High Low Low Low Low Medium infrastructure (particularly residential and 127 Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation measures Develop- Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority ment level social infrastructure) in safer territories Promote gender equality in terms of Promote gender equality in decision High Low Medium High High Very climate change adaptation making on climate change policies on high central levels of policymaking and strengthen capacities of institutions to integrate gender considerations in climate change policies Update the relevant national and local High Low Medium Medium High Very strategic documents in order to integrate high best practices and information with gender and climate change issues taken into consideration Develop and pilot gender-related climate High Low High Medium High Very change adaptation projects with high demonstration and awareness focus on AFOLU as well as energy at local level 7.8.2. AFOLU Crops Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation Measures in Crops Sector Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Weights Priority level 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Construction of new modern irrigation system and rehabilitation and modernization of existing irrigation systems to restore irrigation High Medium Medium Medium High Very High 128 Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation Measures in Crops Sector Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Weights Priority level 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 on360.000 ha arable land, which could potentially be irrigated Gradual transition from classic forms of gravity irrigation to modern forms of irrigation (sprinkler and drop irrigation Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Strengthening water use associations for the management of the of the irrigation water and raising the awareness of farmers for the payment Medium Low Low Low Medium Medium of the irrigation fee Construction of a new drainage system and rehabilitation of existing drainage infrastructure High Medium Medium Medium High Very High Increase by at least 50% of the current number of excavators and machinery needed for maintenance of drainage infrastructure High Medium Medium Medium High Very High Increase the financial support for municipalities, to undertake the necessary interventions in the secondary and tertiary drainage canals. Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Increase of the flood protection capacities. From a total of 850 km of river and sea embankments, about 300 km of them, need urgent High Medium Medium Medium High Very High repairs. The update of the river management plans (river Buna, Drin, Mat, Shkumbinand Vjosa), and assessment of the additional interventions, Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium needed for flood cases in the areas with medium and high risk. Application of subsidy schemes for farmers, for the introduction of new High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very High technologies in agricultural production. Financial support for the application of agricultural crop insurance schemes, for the harmful effects of climate change High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very High Increase institutional capacity, to monitor climate indicators, as well as indicators related to the effects of climate change in agriculture Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Raising the awareness of farmers and agricultural specialists, on the risk posed by climate change in agriculture, as well as necessary Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium measures to adapt to these climate changes. Introduction of new cultivation techniques, such as direct planting, (no- tillage systems), as well as soil mulching Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium 129 Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Adaptation Measures in Crops Sector Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Weights Priority level 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Application of agroforestry practices, combining the growth of agricultural crops accompanied by forest trees, and construction of Low Low Medium High Medium Medium hedgerows and windbreaks on the fields planted with crops Reduction as much as possible of chemical inputs in agriculture and introduction of new cultivation technologies Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Promotion of organic farming and application of precision farming Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium systems Introduction of pest and disease resistant cultivars, as well as improvement of pest monitoring and information system Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Application of crop cultivation in protected environments, increasing the area of greenhouses, tunnels and hail protection systems Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Promoting plant breeding programs, which are focused on development of new cultivars adapted to climate change (drought and Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium cold resistant) Application of crop rotation practices, in the plain areas of the country, as well as the planting of perennial crops, in hilly and mountainous Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium areas, Diversification of crops cultivated on farm, and diversification of farm activities, altering of agricultural production with agroprocessing, agro- Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium tourism etc. 130 Livestock Co-benefit Adaptation measures Ease of implementation potential Priority Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial level Weights 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Increase institutional capacity, to monitor climate indicators, livestock data, Very High Medium High High High Very High regarding the number, level of production in different seasons for respective AEZ. Development of livestock sectoral climate change adaptation plans Very High High High High High Very High Development of National Strategies and Action Plans for Agricultural Genetic High Medium High High High Medium Resources Establishment of a weather alert system to enable livestock farmers to protect animals. Improve the capacities of livestock farmers and herders to understand Very High Medium High High High Very High and cope with risk posed by climate change in livestock. Application of subsidy schemes to farmers, for the introduction of new Very High High High High High Very High technologies in livestock husbandry, diversification and processing activities. Financial support for the application of livestock insurance schemes, for the Very High High High High High Very High harmful effects of climate change Strengthening capacities of national veterinary service to protect animal health Very High High Very High High High Very High and wellbeing. Improving the livestock sector’s environmental sustainability. Increasing efficiency High Medium Very High High High High of natyral resources use. Capacity building of institutions and farmers associations to plan and implement appropriate breeding programs to improve animal production and their resistant to Very High High Very High Very High Very High Very High climate change. Capacity building of farmers for conservation and sustainable use of native animal genetic resources, as more resistant and adapted to climate changes and High High High High High High environment. National cryo-bank establishment or enhancing collaboration with international gene banks for cryo conservation of most vulnerable native animal genetic Very High Medium Very High High High Very High resource. Improving the livestock sector’s environmental sustainability. Increasing efficiency High High High Medium High Medium of natural resources use. Diversification, intensification and/or integration of pasture management, crop High High Medium Medium High Medium production and agro forestry practices for extensive system of livestock husbandry. 131 Adaptation measures Co-benefit Priority Ease of implementation potential level Increasing the efficiency of pasture management through sustainable grazing practices like as rotational grazing, adjusting the frequency and timing of grazing to match the livestock’s needs with the availability of pasture resources. Establish High High Medium Medium Medium Medium and maintain water points for livestock in grazing areas and shelters to protect animals during hot seasons. Implementation mixed livestock farming systems, such as stable -fed systems during winter and pasture grazing, in the spring-autumn period. Better use of High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium alpine pastures, during summer especially for fattening animals to avoid overgrazing near villages. Increasing livestock mobility, traditional strategy of transhumant herders; in winter period from mountainous regions to low land regions and vice versa during High Medium Medium High High Medium summer time Applying agroforestry as an intergrated approuch for extensive grazinfg system of High High High High High High livestock Diversification of farm animal species because they exploit different feed resources. They can be affected differently from the outbreak of diseases. They High High Medium High High Medium have different reproductive rates and can contribute differently to rebuild livestock holding after drought, disease or natural disasters. Improve the environment inside housings/application of efficient cooling equipments like as fans, water sprinklers to minimize heat stress. Planting trees Medium Medium Medium High High Medium round stables. Improve management of water resources through the introduction of simple techniques for localized irrigation (e.g. drip and sprinkler irrigation), accompanied High High High High High High by infrastructure to harvest and store rainwater, such as tanks connected to the roofs of houses and small surface and underground dams. Improving farmers knowledge to appropriate animal husbandry, feed Very High Medium High High Medium High conservation methods, feeding practices and reproductive strategies. Reduction of livestock number, keeping most productive animals especially for High Very High High Medium High Medium stable fed system. 132 Forestry Co-benefit Ease of implementation Adaptation Measures in Forestry Sector potential Priority Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial level Weights 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Improve capacities in forest fire management High Medium High High High Very high Improve logistics in fire fighting High High Medium High High Very high Improve information on fire detection High Medium High High High Very high Improve public awareness Medium High High High Medium Very high Improve communication High High High High Medium Very high Change from pure to mixed forests High Low Low High High Very high Establish a national and local network of experts and volunteers High Low High High High Very high Manage forests to ensure that a high diversity of species High Medium Medium High High Very high Manage forests to ensure that a high diversity of age classes High Medium Medium High High Very high Introduce silvicultural measures in sensitive areas High Medium Medium High High Very high Afforestation in bare lands inside forest High High High High High Very high Improve of monitoring in forest health High High High High High Very high Promote multifunctional forest systems High High High Medium High Very high Implement intensive thinning to reduce density and favor vitality of the High High Medium High High Very high remaining trees. Support drought-resistant genetic to replace species at the limit of their site High High Medium High High Very high suitability Variation (extended or reduced) crop rotation periods Medium High High High High Very high Prioritize silviculture to protect valuable biodiversity stands High High High High Medium Very high Adoption of nursery techniques to obtain a hardening in the plant High High High High High Very high characteristics Promotion of mixed forests, uneven-aged forests and forest conversion High High Medium High High Very high Avoid soil erosion and compaction to preserve water storage High Medium High High Medium Very high Protect and manage understory Medium Low Low Low Medium Medium Improve of monitoring in forest health High High High High High Very high Improve information on pest and diseases management High Medium High High High Very high Implement the ‘quarantine’ for new pests/diseases Medium High High High Medium Very high 133 Co-benefit Ease of implementation Adaptation Measures in Forestry Sector potential Priority Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial level Weights 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Introduce cost effective practices in pest/diseases management and Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High environmentally friendly Maintain mixed forests, uneven-aged forests, and forest conversion High Medium Medium High High Very high Prioritize silviculture to protect valuable biodiversity stands High Medium Medium High High Very high Improve information at international and local level High High Medium High High Very high Improve capacity building High High High High Medium Very high Protect and manage understory Low Medium Medium Medium Low Medium Promote species resistant High High Medium Medium Medium Very high Avoid water stress to species Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Develop an action plan to deal with most present pest and pathogens in High High High High High Very high Albanian forests Improve utilization of timber and non-timber products High High High Medium Medium Very high Improve capacities in all forest management aspects High High High Medium High Very high Improve of capacities on pests and diseases management High High High High High Very high Introduce new technologies in afforestation and forest management High High High High High Very high Establish forest extension service at local level High High High Medium High Very high Draft an action plan for research and innovation in forestry sector High High High Medium High Very high Implement of monitoring in forest health High Medium High High High Very high Promote multifunctional forest systems High Medium High High High Very high Implement intensive silviculture measures High Medium Medium High High Very high Support forest biodiversity species High Medium Medium Medium High Very high Adaptation in (extended or reduced) crop rotation periods High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very high Prioritize silviculture to protect valuable biodiversity stands Medium Low Low Medium Medium Medium Landscape regeneration at large scale High High High High High Very high Promotion of mixed forests, uneven-aged forests and forest conversion Medium Medium Low Low Low Medium Introduce fast growing species High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very high Protect the forests from overgrazing High Medium Medium Medium Low High Improve pests and diseases management High High High High High Very high Change from pure to mixed forests in artificial plantations Medium Medium Low Low Low Medium Improve flood protection for coastal forests Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Diversify energy sources to reduce pressure on forests High Medium Medium High High Very high 134 Co-benefit Ease of implementation Adaptation Measures in Forestry Sector potential Priority Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial level Weights 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Improve energy efficiency to reduce pressure on forests High Medium Medium High High Very high Guide species composition in forests Medium Medium Low Low Low Medium Afforestation in burned areas High High High High High Very high Introduce new technologies in afforestation and forest management High High High High High Very high Implement an action plan for research and innovation in forestry sector High High Medium High High Very high Support natural regeneration in places where it is possible High High High High High Very high Support conversion from shrubs and coppice to high forest Medium Medium Low Low Low Medium Create and condition for the fir (Abies sp.), silver birch (B.pendula) and the High Medium Medium High High Very high scot pine (P.sylvestris) to shift/migrate since their habitat is currently isolated Draft management plans for forest and pastures management unit (FPMU) High High High Medium High Very high Introduce ES for every big hydropower plants in Albania High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very high Introduce ES for protection of infrastructure (road network) High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very high Introduce ES for protection of tap water (Bovilla) High High Medium High High Very high Introduce ES for coastal protection High High Medium High High Very high Landscape regeneration at large scale High High High High High Very high Introduce ESs in all related fields in the country Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Approximate and implement EU regulations relevant to forestry High High Medium High High Very high Improve law implementation High High High High High Very high Support for introducing new technologies in forest sector High High Medium High High Very high Support for adaptation for some important species (fir, Scot pine, silver birch High Medium Medium High High Very high etc.) Implement national strategy and action plan for climate changes High High Medium High High Very high Support for increasing forestry area High High High High High Very high Improve of politics and financial instruments to make the forestry sector High High High High High Very high efficient Draft a national plan for afforestation based on ecologic settings High High Medium High High Very high 135 Pastures and Meadows Adaptation Measures in Pastures and Meadows Co-benefit Ease of implementation Sector potential Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority Weights 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 level Strengthen the capacities of the newly established Forestry Agency and the Forestry Unit at Municipality level on developing including pastures and meadows in the regional development plans, including Low High High High Medium High designating specific role and responsibilities in adapting against climate changes Development of strategies for sustainable pastoralism Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Medium Design of climate change projections targeting alpines and highlands Medium High High Medium Medium Very High and the pasture vulnerability Strengthen capacities of Forestry and pasture units in the Local Authority level on evaluation pasture resources, as preparedness for High Medium Low Medium Low High risk assessment Support Universities and research institutes on developing research Low Medium Medium Medium Low Medium and studies on risk assessment for pastures Support smallholder livestock communities in rural and highland areas through based local investment programs, by scaling up and Medium High Medium Medium Low Medium integrating climate change adaptation options Monitoring of biodiversity and species composition in pasture, including the exploitation and management of Invasive Alien Species Low Medium Medium Low Low Medium (IAS) Improvements on predicting capacity on the status of bio-resources through improving the research on pasture biodiversity and High High Medium Low Low High productivity Protect and preserve pasture and meadows through ecosystem- Medium High High Medium Low High based management. 136 Wetlands and Lagoons Adaptation Measures in Lagoons and Wetlands Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Sector Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority Weights 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 level Institutional and organizational strengthening of central and local governmental structures (NAPA and RAPA) and local municipalities on developing the structures at regional and local level which are capable on Medium High High High Medium Very High identifying and addressing the stressors and develop Adaptive Management Plans. Development of territorial climate change adaptation plans for the whole coast (an integrated coastal zone adaptation plan, including lagoons and protected Medium High Medium High Medium Very High areas) Proclaiming additional Marine Protected areas along the wetland and lagoon area which will supported integrated efforts into developing adaptation Medium High High Medium Low High measures Development of risk management plans especially on Flood Prevention Medium High Low Medium Low Medium Rehabilitation and restoration of degraded habitats, including barriers in Medium High High Medium Low High lagoon/wetland, along the coastal zone Maintain water communication of lagoon areas with the sea through the Medium High Medium Medium Low Medium natural communication channels Support monitoring agencies in design and perform water quality in each wetland/lagoon to track impacts of climate change on abiotic factors Medium High Medium High Low High (temperature and dissolved oxygen) to reduce risks through environmental quality monitoring methods and techniques Supporting research communities in perform biodiversity monitoring programs Medium High High High Low High in each wetland/lagoon, including bird population and Invasive species Development of ecotourist activities in the wetland/lagoon area such as Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High birdwatching, hiking, etc Control of water extraction in the aquifer Low Medium Medium Low Medium Medium Establishing the early warning system to prevent floods and fires with impact High High Medium Medium Low Very High on sensitive areas/habitats Protect and preserve natural resources within lagoon and wetland areas Medium High High High Medium Very High through sustainable management and planning of all economic activities Training and qualification for local administration and communities living within Medium Medium High High Medium Very High Protected areas on climate change impacts 137 Fishery Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Fishery Adaptation Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority Measures 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 level Weights Institutional Strengthen the Institutional and organizational strengthening of High Low Low Medium Medium High Adaptation institutional central and local governmental structures (following a framework (e.g. co-management approach) in providing coordination) interconnection between planning authorities and other inter-sectoral bodies that play a role in adapting against climate changes Strengthen the Development of territorial climate change adaptation High Low Low Medium Medium High policy framework: plans for the whole coast (an integrated coastal zone development and adaptation plan, including lagoons and fishery sectors) enhancement of Development of fishery sectoral climate change High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very high laws, policies adaptation plans and the supporting sectors (water, regulations and energy and agriculture) plans, including Development of risk management plans High Medium Medium Medium Medium Very high action plans Addressing the specific needs of small scale coastal Medium Medium Medium Medium High High fishing and supporting the socio-economic role of sea fisheries in coastal and insular areas Improved Restructuring and modernize the fishing fleet by High High Medium Medium Low Very high Management of improving work and safety, conditions, the quality and Fishery sectors hygiene of products, energy efficiency and selectivity based upon risk Improving the age structure of employment in the sea High High Medium Medium Low Very high assessment and fisheries sector and promoting the diversification of monitoring (e.g. activity and parallel employment, as alternative incorporating solution to impacted fishery related activities by the system feedbacks) CC Supporting populations dependent on the fisheries Medium Medium Medium Medium High High sector in coastal and isolated areas Livelihood Strengthen the Strengthening the sector by investing in development High High Medium Medium Low Very high Adaptation coordination and of new markets and expanding the range of offered management products framework within Strengthening capacities to assess the future state of High High Low Medium Medium High and between the the sector due to climate change impacts 138 Fishery Adaptation Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Measures Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority fishery sectors: at Strengthening the resilience of natural resources High High Low Medium Medium level High national and local through adaptive fisheries management levels (e.g. Weights Increasing the involvement of fishers in the tourism Low Medium Medium Medium High Medium municipalities) sector (like pesca-tourism) Exploitation and Management of Invasive Alien Low Medium Medium Low High Medium Species (IAS) Strengthening aquaculture capacities by following ad- High High Medium Low High Very high hoc recommendation and measures regarding environmental parameters and diseases Improving aquaculture capacities by species Medium High Medium Low High High diversifying, while oriented toward local and international markets Strengthening aquaculture capacities by using Medium Medium Medium Medium High High properly fingerlings in the on growing-facilities Improving aquaculture capacities by adapting Medium Medium Medium Medium High High qualitative and proper feed quantity to changed climate conditions Risk Reduction Early warning Improvements on predicting capacity about the future Medium High Medium Low High High and measures status of bio-resources Management Study and record of the impact of climate change on Medium High Medium Low High High for Resilience current used techniques in aquaculture to develop new more efficient methods and techniques Intensifying cooperation towards the direction of High High Medium Low High Very high detection and prevention of new diseases, study of the physiology of marine species, conduct research into new and better able species to adapt and better nutritional systems that are both effective and environmentally friendly. Risk pooling and Insurance aquaculture to avoid the risk of bankruptcy High High Medium Low High Very high transfer for fish farmers from damage to their facilities due to extreme weather events; incentives to insure and avoid long-term reductions in production and social problems of the abandonment of their profession Risk Reduction Reducing exposure to risks at sea, such as storms Medium Medium Low Low High Medium and winds, can include training and provision of safety gear or GPS devices (it mainly includes lakes and marine fisheries). Increased resilience of aquaculture to reduced flow of Medium High Medium Low High High 139 Fishery Adaptation Co-benefit potential Ease of implementation Measures Development Mitigation Institutional Technical Financial Priority water, changes in water physicochemical parameters, level and occurrence/spread of fish and mussel’s diseases Preparedness and Protect and preserve fisheries resources via Weights a gradual High High Medium Medium Medium Very high Response transition from a fisheries management policy based on the control of fishing effort to an ecosystem-based management. Strengthening research capacities in the field of Medium High Medium Low High High selective breeding, aqua-feed and breeding in closed systems. Apply aquaculture closed production systems and Medium Medium Medium Low Medium Medium integrated aquaculture technologies 140 141