Rwanda Livestock Master Plan (2017/18-2021/22)

Rwanda Livestock Master Plan Developed by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Livestock Master Plan (LMP) team Dr. Barry I Shapiro, Team Leader and Dr. Getachew Gebru, Dr. Solomon Desta and Mr. Kidus Nigussie August 20, 2017 II The Rwanda Livestock Master Plan (R-LMP) was prepared by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), with input from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) and Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) of The Republic of Rwanda, as well as other Rwandan livestock experts. The study was funded by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). III Acknowledgments Many Individuals, institutions and agencies in Rwanda contributed to the realization of this plan. It was developed under the auspices of H.E. Dr. Geraldine Mukeshimana, Minister of Agriculture, MINAGRI, Government of Rwanda, with oversight provided by Dr. Theogen Rutagwenda, Director General, Animal Resources, MINAGRI. The work of the ILRI LMP team was assisted the Rwandan livestock experts who participated in the expert consultation meetings, provided data and technical advice and validated the results of the livestock sector analysis (LSA). Most particularly the support and guidance provided by Dr. Theogen Rutagwenda and Mr. Otto Muhinda, Assistant Country Representative, FAO-Rwanda helped to bring the LMP to fruition. The ILRI LMP team would like to acknowledge the African Partnership for Livestock Development (Alive) group, the African Union inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources (AU IBAR), and the specialists from the Centre de cooperation international en recherché agronomique pour le development (CIRAD), the World Bank, FAO, and ILRI who have developed the set of analytical tools employed in this report: the Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) and the Livestock Master Plan tools. The ILRI LMP team used these tools to produce the Rwanda Livestock Sector Analysis and Livestock Master Plan. IV Table of Contents Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................ III Rwanda LMP Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 1 Rwanda LMP Introduction and Context .................................................................................. 8 Rwanda LSA Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 16 Dairy value chain development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22) ............................................ 24 Vision............................................................................................................................... 24 Overall Targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI) ...................... 24 Improved Family Dairy (IFD) under RLI .............................................................................. 29 Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Production under RLI ................................................. 43 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 48 Red meat VC development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22) ................................................... 51 Vision............................................................................................................................... 51 Overall targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI) ....................... 52 Improved Traditional Cattle, Sheep and Goat ................................................................... 55 Specialized cattle feedlots and culled dairy cattle ............................................................. 65 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 72 Chicken value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) ........................................... 75 Vision............................................................................................................................... 75 Overall Targets under the Recommended Level of Investment Scenario (RLI) .................... 76 The improved Traditional Family Chicken (ITFC) and Crossbreed Family Chicken (CFC) sub systems (20167/17-2021/22) ............................................................................................ 76 Specialized commercial chicken production (2016/17-2021/22) ........................................ 81 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 100 Pork value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) .............................................. 103 Vision............................................................................................................................. 103 Overall Target under the recommended level of investment (RLI) scenario ...................... 103 Modernizing the semi-intensive mixed family pig production system (IFP) ...................... 103 Expanding Commercial Specialized Piglet fattening systems (CSP) RLI scenario ............... 106 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 116 V List of tables and figures Table 1: Percent (%) change in overall national production and contribution to GDP between BAU and the RLI and MLI scenarios in 2021/22 .............................................................................. 4 Table 2: Total investment cost required to carry out the recommended Rwanda LMP roadmap 5 Table 3: Species based traditional livestock production systems, herd/flock and specialized .... 12 Table 4: Percent (%) change in production and GDP between BAU and the “with case”, 2031/32 ....................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table 5 Current and projected number of crossbreed cattle at national and by production system/zone under RLI ................................................................................................................. 25 Table 6. Current and projected milk production in Rwanda at national level and by production zone/system .................................................................................................................................. 26 Table 7 Annualized milk productivity of cows in Meat-Milk, IFD and CSD systems (liters per year) ....................................................................................................................................................... 27 Table 8 Current and projected GDP contribution of milk in Rwanda at national level and by production zone/system ............................................................................................................... 27 Table 9: Key challenges and strategies related to IFD: ................................................................. 29 Table 10. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs (2017/18 – 2021/22) ............. 35 Table 11. Total investment and share of dairy improvement investment costs from public and private sources .............................................................................................................................. 40 Table 12: Activities time line and sequencing: Gantt chart under RLI ......................................... 41 Table 13: Key challenges and strategies related to CSD under RLI .............................................. 44 Table 14. Milk production and GDP contribution at three investment level scenarios by 2021/22 ....................................................................................................................................................... 47 Table 15. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs under the MLI scenario (half the investment of the RLI scenario) .................................................................................................... 48 Table 16: Annual increase in number of cattle RLI ...................................................................... 52 Table 17: Annual increase in number of sheep and goats in the traditional system under RLI .. 53 Table 18: Contribution of cattle to national red meat production (in tonnes) under RLI ........... 53 Table 19: Contribution of cattle Feedlot and dairy sub sector to national red meat production (in tonnes) ..................................................................................................................................... 53 Table 20: Contribution of Sheep and Goat meat to national red meat production (in tonnes) under RLI ....................................................................................................................................... 54 Table 21: Key challenges and interventions related to improving red meat VC under the RLI scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 55 Table 22: Five-year Red Meat production improvement investment costs for RLI, the recommended investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) .......................................................... 59 Table 23:Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat VC development under RLI .......... 61 Table 24: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for improving the red meat VC under RLI .......................................................................................... 61 Table 25: Change in red meat production from cattle, sheep and goats under RLI (in tonnes) .. 62 Table 26: Red meat production from local and crossbred cattle by system and typology zone for the baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with the RLI intervention (in tonnes) ........................ 62 Table 27: GDP contribution from red meat improvement under RLI (in RWF millions) .............. 63 VI Table 28: Cattle GDP for baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with red meat intervention in all zones and systems (in RWF 000,000) under RLI ........................................................................... 63 Table 29: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI ........................................................ 64 Table 30: Contribution of the cattle feedlot system to national meat production (in tonnes) under RLI ....................................................................................................................................... 65 Table 31: Contribution of the dairy production system to national meat production (in tonnes) ....................................................................................................................................................... 65 Table 32: Challenges and interventions in the specialized systems under RLI ............................ 66 Table 33: Projected number of cattle fattened under RLI ............................................................ 67 Table 34: Estimated amount of additional concentrate feed needed for additional cattle going to feedlot by the year 2021/22 under RLI .................................................................................... 67 Table 35: Investment in slaughter house establishment under RLI ............................................. 68 Table 36: Change in meat production from cattle feedlots (2016/17 to 2021/22) with feedlot intervention under RLI .................................................................................................................. 68 Table 37: Change in Livestock GDP due to interventions on cattle feedlots under RLI ............... 68 Table 38: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI ........................................................ 69 Table 39: Rwanda red meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22) ..................................... 70 Table 40: Rwanda red meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22).......... 70 Table 41: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart MLI ...................................................... 70 Table 42: Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat production under MLI ................. 71 Table 43: Number of hens and chicken eggs and meat production in ITFC and CFC 2016/17 2021/22 (RLI) ................................................................................................................................. 76 Table 44: Key challenges and interventions related to improving the family systems (ITFC and CFC) under the RLI......................................................................................................................... 77 Table 45: Changes in GDP contribution of improved family chicken (RLI) .................................. 80 Table 46: Number of chicken and chicken meat production in SP chicken subsystems (RLI) ..... 81 Table 47: Egg production from specialized layers (RLI) ............................................................... 81 Table 48: Commercial layer and broiler projected population at national level (RLI) ................. 81 Table 49: GDP contribution from commercial specialized chicken system 2016/17 and 2021/22 (RLI) ............................................................................................................................................... 82 Table 50: Total chicken meat and eggs production with additional investment RLI .................. 83 Table 51: Total chicken meat and eggs production GDP contribution with additional investment RLI .................................................................................................................................................. 83 Table 52: Per capita availability of eggs and chicken meat RLI .................................................... 84 Table 53: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and RLI scenario (2021/22) ................. 84 Table 54: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI ................................... 84 Table 55: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs for RLI, the recommended investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) .................................................... 87 Table 56:Total investment and recurrent costs for chicken meat and egg production VC development under RLI................................................................................................................. 91 Table 57: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for improving the chicken meat and egg production VC under RLI ................................................... 91 Table 58: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22) ............................... 93 Table 59: Rwanda chicken meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22) ... 93 VII Table 60: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart for MLI scenario ............. 94 Table 61: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs under medium investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) ..................................................................... 97 Table 62: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison ............................................................ 101 Table 63: Number of sows and tonnes of pork in improved family mixed (IFP) pig subsystems (RLI scenario) ............................................................................................................................... 103 Table 64: Key Challenges and Interventions related to the recommended level of investment (RLI) to improve family pig system (IFP) ..................................................................................... 104 Table 65: Pig meat production and GDP contribution family system (RLI) ................................ 106 Table 66: Population growth of piglets fattening and meat production RLI ............................. 106 Table 67: Total pig meat production under RLI ......................................................................... 107 Table 68: Total GDP contribution Family (IFP) and Commercial/Specialized Pig (CSP) under RLI ..................................................................................................................................................... 107 Table 69: Activity Sequencing (Gantt chart) under RLI ............................................................... 108 Table 70: Five year pig/pork production improvement recommended level of investment costs scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) RLI............................................................................................... 109 Table 71:Total investment and recurrent costs for pig production VC development under RLI 111 Table 72: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for improving the pig production VC under RLI ............................................................................... 111 Table 73: Rwanda total pig meat production and GDP contribution under BAU and MLI scenario (2021/22) .................................................................................................................................... 113 Table 74: Activity sequencing Gantt chart under MLI ................................................................ 113 Table 75: Five year pig/pork production improvement investment costs under medium investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) MLI .......................................................................... 115 Table 76: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison 2021/22 ............................................. 116 Figure 1: Diagram showing the different modules and sub-modules of LSIPT ........................... 14 1 Rwanda LMP Executive Summary The LMP sets out the investment interventions—better genetics, feed and health services, which, together with complementary policy support—which could help meet the national development plan targets of Rwanda by improving productivity and total production in the key livestock value chains for cow dairy, red meat-milk, poultry, and pork. If the proposed investments—of about USD 287 million over the 5-year LMP period—47% from the public sector and 53% from private sector investors—were successfully implemented, the resulting further modernization of the sector has the potential to have a substantial positively impact on livestock keepers by increasing their incomes and the food and nutritional security of their households. The success of the LMP is critical to the achievement of food security at the sectorial and national levels. Beyond these positive impacts on rural people, the anticipated transformation of the livestock sector has the potential to impact positively on urban consumers through more and better quality animal source foods and lower animal product prices. The success of the LMP is critical to the achievement of food and nutrition security at household, sectorial and national levels. Development of the LMP The LSA and LMP interventions, based on investment scenarios related to productivity enhancing technologies and improved policies developed or identified by livestock experts of MINAGRI, RAB, and other research institutes and universities in Rwanda were tested in accordance with the Rwandan national development objectives:  Reduce poverty  Achieve food and nutritional security  Contribute to economic growth  Contribute to exports and foreign exchange earnings  Contribute to industrialization and employment  Mitigate livestock’s contribution to GHG emissions Using measurable economic or environmental indicators for the above objectives, four key livestock value chains—live animals and red meat and milk (from indigenous cattle, sheep, and goats), dairy with crossbred cows, and chicken and pigs—were identified in the LSA as producing the greatest productivity increases contributing to national economic development objectives and the long-run development of the sector. The LMP, moreover, comprises two sub-value chains: smallholder family and commercial specialized production systems. These sub-value chains are found in one or more of the four major production typology zones of Tanzania: central; coastal and lake; highlands; and commercial specialized dairy. The rigorous ex-ante technical and financial analysis conducted of alternative intervention options (investment scenarios) carried out in the LMP is thus a guide to the choice and prioritization of public and private investments with the highest payoffs for livestock sector transformation. 2 LMP Commodity Value Chains: Rwanda Based on results of the LSA analysis, to reach the objectives and goals of the GoR, the key VCs targeted in the LMP roadmaps are: 1. Cow dairy  Improved family dairy  Commercial specialized dairy 2. Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, and goats  Improved traditional red meat-milk  Ranches  Specialised feedlots 3. Chicken meat and eggs  Improved family chicken  commercial specialized chicken (layers and broilers) 4. Pork  Improved traditional system (semi-scavenging or stall fed)  Commercial specialized piglet fattening Key results Cow dairy VC development The projected increase in national cow milk production as a result of the proposed interventions—due to an increase in crossbred and pure exotic cows, including through artificial insemination and synchronization, combined with improved feed and health interventions, value addition and complementary policy changes—during the LMP period (2016/17–2021/22) is 2.2 billion liters of milk, an 18.2% increase in milk production over the BAU investment level given the RLI scenario. The crossbred dairy cow herd increases by 46%, milk production by 65%, and contribution to GDP by 53%, while improving the processing and marketing of dairy products. This additional milk production could then be substituted for imported milk products and used domestically for new or additional industrial uses (e.g. in the baking industry), or exported as milk powder UHT or casein milk protein to raise foreign exchange earnings. Red meat VC development Under the RLI, the increases in red meat production from cattle, sheep and goats from 2016/17 (the baseline year) to 2021/22 is 32%, 33%, and 50 %, respectively. Cattle (72%) and goats (23%) are the primary sources of red meat in 2021/22. Total red meat grows from 58,579 tonnes in 2016/17 to 79,586 tonnes in 2021/22, an increase by 36%. Under RLI the GDP contribution from red meat coming from cattle, sheep and goats from all production zones shows an overall increase by 26% compared to the base year with the 2021/22 projection. The 3 GDP contribution of red meat coming from cattle from all production zones and systems shows an overall increase by 19% comparing the base year with the 2021/22 projection. The negative change in production of meat from local cattle breeds is negative 19% and big positive production change in crossbreds in all the production zones is 47%, with similar increases and decreased in meat production from crosses and locals, respectively. This negative change in meat production from local breeds is expected due to the population decreases of local cattle breeds as they are replaced by the crosses or pure exotic breeds. The Girinka program or “One Cow per Family Program” of MINAGRI is transforming dairying and meat production in Rwanda, through the provision of pregnant crossbred cows to smallholders. As well, the number of cattle going through the feedlot fattening system for meat production is expected to increase rapidly, partly as a result of the government’s Gako program which is seeking to improve the meat breeds in Rwanda, especially with Ankole cattle. Due to extremely limited access to land for grazing and feed production, and limited ability to enhance the genetic potential of local ruminant breeds in the medium-term, it is unlikely the red meat production gap can be closed in the next five years. Chicken VC development Successful poultry interventions would allow the poultry sub-sector to move to improved family poultry with semi-scavenging crossbreds and for substantial increases in the scale of specialized layer and broiler operations. Such a transformation—depending on successful interventions in the areas of breed selection, health services, particularly in treating Newcastle disease, feed, extension, private investment and trade policies—would contribute considerably to improving food and nutrition security and household, as well as increasing the contribution of poultry to GDP. The chicken meat and egg production under the RLI scenario show substantial increments, 124% and 110% respectively compared to the base year. The RLI scenario would contribute significantly to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita egg consumption for Rwanda to help meet one of the Rwandan national development objectives of improving food and nutrition security. Under the RLI scenario, although the per capita egg consumption increases, a significant shortage continues to exist to meeting the FAO recommended requirement, which is 4.5 kg per person. Taking advantage of the benefits of the potential poultry revolution would require substantial investments in promotional activities to change tastes and preferences from beef, as well as from local to exotic chicken meat and eggs. The substitution of the surplus chicken meat for domestic red meat consumption would also put downward pressure on domestic meat prices and enable an increase in the export of live animals (of cattle, sheep, and goat), potentially raising foreign exchange earnings. 4 Pork VC development The pig meat production and GDP impacts under the RLI scenario show substantial increments, 239% and 214% respectively, compared to the base year. The RLI would contribute significantly to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita pig meat consumption for Rwanda enough that it would help to meet the Rwandan national development objective of improving food and nutrition security. It should be noted that improving pork meat requires a focus on upon controlling African swine fever pigs, to increase pig productivity and meat production to help close the projected all-meat consumption gap projected in 15 years. Industrializing pork production (in large commercial scale operations and processing for product transformation will lower domestic meat prices, while enabling an increase in exports and foreign exchange earnings. Comparison of RLI an MLI The LSA investment interventions under RLI result in production of 663 thousand MT of meat, 2.2 billion liters of milk, and 1.9 billion eggs which would substantially increase availability of ASFs in Rwanda to help meet the nutritional requirements of the rapidly growing human population, expected to reach 16.3 million people in 2031/32. Compared to the BAU, the MLI impact on meat production and GDP contribution show significant declines, indicating the MLI would not be warranted before conducting a thorough financial feasibility analysis, to calculate the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and net present value (NPV). It is strongly recommended to do a financial feasibility analysis of the MLI scenario before committing the investment resources, no matter how great the budget constraint may be to committing to the RLI. Table 1: Percent (%) change in overall national production and contribution to GDP between BAU and the RLI and MLI scenarios in 2021/22 Livestock products BAU MLI/BAU RLI/BAU Production in tonnes (MT) GDP in RWF (10^6) Production (% change) GDP (% change) Production (% change) GDP (% change) Beef 53,729 82,410 3% -4% 7% -5% Mutton 3,171 5,538 6% 5% 16% 12% Goat meat 16,050 31,615 5% 4% 15% 11% Pork 26,665 28,184 70% 76% 154% 135% Chicken meat 20,589 27,278 35% 15% 40% 71% Total Meat 120,204 175,025 24% 14% 62% 28% Milk 1,041 158 4% 0% 18.2% 9.5% Eggs in million 369.7 16,328 17% 17% 53% 39% Hides & skins 1,322 624 - - 15% 15% Organic matter 8,251,268 9,178 - - 7% 57% 5 Priority investment and complementary policy interventions The huge deficit in projected demand (without additional investments at the RLI level) for red meat is being driven by high human population and urbanization growth, as well as income growth. Limited access to land for improving feed production, including on grazing lands, and the low genetic potential of local breeds of cattle and small ruminants are the main constraints to increased red meat production. That said red meat from small ruminants, especially sheep will be of little help in closing the meat gap due to their low numbers, limited feed resources and low genetic potential of indigenous breeds, nor will pork help much unless outbreaks of African swine fever are controlled effectively. Total investment in the Rwanda LMP The total investment costs required to carry out the LMP roadmap are RWF 237,969.7 million. The proportion of investment from the public and private sectors is 47% (RWF 112,580.85 million) and 53% (RWF 125,388.75 million) respectively. Table 2: Total investment cost required to carry out the recommended Rwanda LMP roadmap Investment interventions Total investment cost in million RWF Total Cost in million USD Public Private Total Cow dairy 21,943.1 28,524.5 50,467.7 60.8 Red meat/milk and feedlot 73063 57464 130,527 157.3 Poultry 16,320 34,680 51,000 61.4 Pork 1254.75 4720.25 5,975 7.2 Total 96,277.17 90,743.43 187,020.7 286.7 *US$ 1 = RWF 830 Key take-away messages  Investment in poultry has the most potential to close the projected meat consumption gap and could enable export of ruminant animals and red meat.  However, domestic consumer preferences for white meat and particularly chicken meat would need significant investment and effort in promotion to change consumer preferences for red meat, especially beef and goat meat  The projected gap in milk demanded could be closed and a surplus produced through AI and synchronization for breed improvement, combined with feed and health interventions addressing young and adult stock mortality (YASM)  Feed is the biggest constraint to animal productivity improvement. Access to land appropriate for grazing, and land for feed production, needs to be addressed to overcome the very serious existing feed deficit  Red meat production cannot be expected to increase much over time and help significantly to close the projected all-meat production-consumption gap due to the present limited access to land for feed production and grazing, the need to expand animal health services, and the low genetic potential of local cattle breeds and small ruminants 6  Small ruminants are also not expected to be help much in closing the meat gap due to their low numbers, in addition to limited feed resources and low genetic potential of indigenous breeds  Pork has potential to help close the projected all-meat production-consumption gap but it is prone to African Swine Fever requiring improved prevention and control, and its demand is limited; hence it cannot be a priority solution for closing the meat gap Priority investment interventions Various combinations of the three standard types of livestock technology interventions are needed to generate higher incomes and animal productivity, and to lead to the achievement of national development objectives: improved genetics, health and feed. The appropriate combinations, depending upon the biophysical, agro-ecological and market conditions facing livestock in the four production zones in Tanzania, include:  Ensuring artificial insemination and synchronization, feed and health interventions addressing young and adult stock mortality (YASM) to help facilitate a surplus in milk demanded;  Targeting animal health interventions for young and adult stock mortality (vaccinations, parasite control) ensuring improved productivity, thereby increasing animal and product off take of meat and dairy;  Prioritizing beef production from on-farm fattening and commercial feedlots as a way of reducing the red meat deficit;  Feed is the biggest constraint to animal productivity improvement. Access to land appropriate for grazing, and land for feed production, needs to be addressed to overcome the very serious existing feed deficit  Improving the quality and quantity of livestock feed resources through introducing improved forage crops and improved animal feed management practices, feed production on irrigated land, as well as increased access to existing lands appropriate for grazing; Complementary policy interventions  Animal health services need to expand dramatically, especially in remote areas where pastoralists predominate, and PPPs should be tried where private investments are too risky and the returns are too low;  Undertaking investments in promotional activities to change tastes and preferences from beef to white meat, especially chicken;  Prioritizing investments in genetic improvement by focusing on crossbreds and exotic chicken pure breeds for both family and commercial enterprises;  Prioritizing policies creating a conducive environment for investment in commercial meat and milk production and processing;  Promoting land allocation and ownership policies which facilitate the investments required to increase feed for meat, egg and milk production;  Promoting land leasing, including land under irrigation, for animal and feed production and providing of tax incentives and subsidized leasing rates to private entrepreneurs; 7  Promoting exports to more remunerative markets in the region through the introduction of a practical and affordable system of animal ID and traceability, as well as food safety and animal health programs through the monitoring of abattoirs and disease surveillance;  Promoting substantial private investment in livestock product transformation through high value-added processing; and  Improving the enabling environment for agribusiness investment through the streamlining of regulations and procedures in order to attract and maintain substantial levels of private investment. 8 Rwanda LMP Introduction and Context In recent years, the government of Rwanda has prioritized the transformation of the agricultural sector. Due to agro-ecological conditions conducive to intensified livestock production, and despite very limited land, the livestock sector of Rwanda provides major opportunities to increase further its contribution to economic growth (Rwanda having already achieved above 6% annual GDP growth for the last 10 years) while improving incomes to reduce poverty and improve the nutritional security of many rural people. This potential has already been proven by the “One cow per family program” that has transformed dairying in Rwanda, and proven to be the key to sustainably improving vegetable and legume production on once infertile hillsides by providing ample manure. Recent growth in livestock production largely reflects significant productivity gains. As well, with rapidly growing population, increasing urbanization and rising incomes, the demand for meat, milk and eggs is expected to increase significantly for the foreseeable future. Still, clear investment roadmaps to further develop the livestock sector could bring even greater impacts from future sector investment plans. The sector is still constrained by too many local animals with low reproductive rates, and high morbidity and mortality rates. Detailed inter-disciplinary livestock sector analysis (the LSA) revealed the potential benefits of a comprehensive livestock master plan (LMP) for Tanzania. The Rwanda LMP shared here sets out the investment interventions—better genetics, feed and health services, which, together with complementary policy support—which could help meet Rwanda’s national development targets by further improving productivity and total production in the key livestock value chains for cow dairy, red meat (and milk) from cattle, goats and sheep, poultry (chicken meat and eggs), and pork. If the proposed investments—of USD 287 million—47% from the public sector and 53% from private sector investors—were successfully implemented, the anticipated transformation of the sector has the potential to impact positively on rural livestock keepers by increasing their incomes and food and nutritional security, and on urban consumers through lower animal product prices. The success of the LMP investment roadmaps is critical to also making further progress in food security at the sectorial and national levels. Development of the LMP The Rwanda Livestock Master Plan (LMP) was undertaken by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) with input from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), the Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB), and other research institutes and universities of The Republic of Rwanda. The study was funded by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to develop an evidence based LMP built on quantitative analysis of the sector. 9 Using available data from secondary sources and national livestock experts, the ILRI LMP team, with input from Rwanda livestock experts (including from MINAGRI, RAB, other research institutes and universities, private sector and NGO actors, etc.) developed a national herd and economic sector model (HESM) and then carried out an assessment of the current state of the sector to establish a data baseline for 2016/17. Then, with the HESM, the team developed long term targets and then did long-term foresight analysis to identify the most promising investment interventions and policies to arrive at a long-term strategy for livestock development in Rwanda over 15-years (a Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA)). The LSA also presents the current status and future potential for poverty reduction and economic growth through the further modernization of the livestock sector. The results of the LSA was used, in turn, to guide the preparation of the Rwanda Livestock Master Plan (LMP) which is a series of five-year investment implementation plans or ‘roadmaps’, to help prepare and implement the next 5-year national development program to further modernize the Rwandan livestock sector. The LMP will also help realize the development vision of Rwanda, namely the: Rwanda Development Vision 2025 to 2050 (Ministry of Finance and Economic planning 2016). This LMP seeks to inform Government of Rwanda (GoR) policymakers, private investors, and development partners (DPs or donors) involved in livestock development on the priority livestock commodity value chains and investment interventions (combining technologies and policies) which could transform the sector through further investment. The Livestock Master Plan (LMP) is a series of 5-year investment implementation plans or roadmaps for the key livestock commodity value chains (VC), and production systems within each value chain, chosen based on the GoR’s priority development objectives. They each include specific VC visions and targets, challenges and strategies, and the priority combined technology and policy investment interventions, with expected outputs, outcomes and impacts. The roadmaps are also fully budgeted, and include timed and sequenced activity plans (Gantt charts). To identify the priority combined technology and policy investment interventions for each LMP roadmap, the impacts of alternative technology and policy investments needed to be assessed against the agreed upon national development objectives of Rwanda. Indicators for the objectives were also needed. The following national objectives and indicators were identified and agreed upon with key Rwandan livestock sector stakeholders. The indicators for these objectives then became the decision criteria to compare the alternative available investment interventions (combined technology and policy) and choose the priority investment interventions in both the LSA and LMP. The objectives and indicators were:  Reducing poverty (by increasing income per animal and in livestock keeping households)  Achieving food and nutritional security (by increasing household herd and national production levels and by also increasing availability of ASFs to meet FAO individual consumption targets) 10  Increasing economic growth (by increasing livestock contributions to GDP (or national income))  Increasing exports (by increasing production beyond domestic consumption requirements which improves the potential for export of live animals and livestock products, and realization of foreign currency)  Contributing to industrialization and employment (by increasing investment in processing and other value addition)  Mitigating climate change (by focusing more on introducing low emitting livestock species for meat (chicken and pork), and dairy intensification through introduction of higher productivity crossbreds) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions) Using the measurable economic or environmental indicators for the above objectives, four key livestock value chains were identified in the LSA—red meat (and milk) (from indigenous and crossbred cattle, sheep, and goats), dairy from crossbred cows, chicken and pork—as producing the greatest potential productivity and production increases in the long run, as well as potential contributions to national economic development objectives under the recommended levels of investment, and thus the potential to contribute to the long-run development of the sector. The LMP, moreover, comprises two types and/or scales of operations for each of these value chains: smallholder family and commercial specialized production systems. These systems are complementary in the sense that they support the development of the other so both types are included in the LMP. Rwanda LMP priority commodity value chains Based on results of the LSA analysis, to reach the objectives and goals of the GoR, the key VCs targeted in the LMP roadmaps are the following, along with the main investment interventions to improve them and increase their development impact: 1. Cow dairy  Improved family dairy (IFD): smallholder family dairying practiced in all zones, usually with 1-2 milking cows and improved with crossbreds or exotics, along with improved feed and health services. IFD is practiced by farmers in mixed crop-livestock production systems, uses small levels of inputs and results in a moderate level of milk production per cow.  Commercial specialized dairy (CSD): both the grazing based (i.e., Gishwati) and non-grazing based or stall fed (all zones) commercial scale specialized dairy production systems with high level of inputs and high milk productivity or yields. The main LMP intervention is increasing the number of crossbred and/or exotic cows. 2. Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, and goats  Improved family red meat-milk (IFRM): these family systems are practiced in all production zones and the main LMP improvements are in feeding and animal health (vaccinations and dipping or spraying for parasites), but improvement of local cattle and goats and crossbreeding is also analyzed. 11  Ranches: meat production on big commercial farms or ranches practiced in areas designated for improved ranching systems in the low rainfall production areas (e.g., Gako); the improvements entailing better feeding, animal health and genetics and better linking to marketing and slaughter houses  Cattle specialized fattening or feedlots (CSF) –- using both indigenous breeds and crossbred males, with the main interventions being to increase the number of animals and production units, and better linking to marketing and slaughter houses 3. Chicken meat and eggs  Improved traditional family chicken (IFC): IFC can be practiced all over the country and in all livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones), using local breeds with improved productivity through selection, along with health, feed and management interventions, especially improved brooding, and scavenging or semi-scavenging feeding; or distribution of higher yielding tropical pure and crossbred chicken to producers.  Commercial specialized chicken (CSC): scaling up of the commercial chicken broiler and layer systems and better integration of production units with the upper end of the value chain. 4. Pork  Improved traditional family pig system (IFP), both stall fed and semi-scavenging systems: improvement of the mixed semi scavenging can be practiced in all the livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall and altitude zones); the proposed interventions involve improving the semi-intensive family mixed production system.  Commercial specialized piglet fattening system (CSP): the specialized semi-intensive piglet fattening system can also be practiced in all the livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall and altitude zones); the improvement is intensification and expansion of the piglet fattening system. These priority value chains are found in one or more of three major production typology zones of Rwanda (classified thus to facilitate the sector modelling and model analysis): In defining the three major production typology zones, rainfall or moisture and altitude are closely linked with the quantity and type (quality) of forage production and extent of use of crop residues and other feed supplementation which would impact on the performance of livestock and delimit the kind of production practices. Hence, the classification or the livestock production systems into zones helps to capture variability in the productivity performance of the different livestock species and systems, as well as identify opportunities and constraints which exist within and across the production zones. The three livestock production zones used in the Rwanda LSA and LMP are then:  Low rainfall low altitude livestock production zone (LRLA): 800-1000 mm and 1450 to 1500 meters asl 12  Medium rainfall medium altitude livestock production zone (MRMA): 1000 – 1400 mm and 1500-1800 meter asl  High rainfall high altitude livestock production zone (HRHA): 1400 – 1800 mm and >1800 meter asl The LRLA zone predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern plateau of Rwanda and the MRMA zone is found predominantly in the central plateau and the HRHA covers the western highland, Lake Kivu and South West regions. The livestock production practices whose production methods are modern, and mainly depend on the procurement of feed from outside the farm are to a large extent independent of the zonation and are classified as a fourth livestock systems category. These are defined as specialized commercial production (SP) systems and are analyzed independently due to their unique modern production characteristics and commercial orientation. They can be found throughout most of the country and are thus often independent of agroecology (rainfall and altitude). The specialized commercial livestock production (SP) systems are classified as follows:  Dairy Systems (CSD) – specialized grazing and non-grazing based commercial systems, both using crossbreds and exotic breeds.  Cattle Fattening Operations (CFS) –- using both indigenous breeds and crossbred males.  Commercial specialized chicken (CSC) – differentiated into commercial broiler and layer operations using exotic breeds  Commercial specialized piglet fattening (CSP) – stall feeding and using crossbreds and exotic breeds, as well as professional health management The following priority livestock systems were then classified for the purpose of assessing and recommending potential system specific technology and policy interventions to modernize and transform the sector. The lower level systems classifications are species/breed based (cattle, sheep, goats, chicken and pigs) and associated with herding practices. Table 3: Species based traditional livestock production systems, herd/flock and specialized Livestock systems by species LRLA MRMA HRHA Specialized Cattle system Local breed Local breed Local breed Non-grazing dairy Family dairy (Cross breed) Family dairy (Cross breed) Family dairy (Cross breed) Grazing dairy Family dairy (Cross breed) Fattening Sheep system Local Breed Local Breed Local Breed Cross Breed Cross Breed Cross Breed 13 Livestock systems by species LRLA MRMA HRHA Specialized Goats systems Local Breed Local Breed Local Breed Cross Breed Cross Breed Cross Breed Chicken systems Family Family Family Layers Broilers Pigs systems Family Family Family Pig fattening Analysis of Investment scenarios The rigorous ex-ante technical and financial analysis conducted on alternative investment intervention options (investment scenarios) carried out in the LMP is meant to be a guide to the choice and prioritization of public and private investments with the highest payoffs for livestock sector transformation by system and production zone. In the investment analysis done to create the LMP roadmaps, two investment scenarios are usually analyzed, BAU (Business As Usual) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). Here, three levels of investment and their implications for commodity value chain contributions to production and GDP are examined to provide three investment choices for the decision makers in Rwanda; the government, private investors and development partners (donors). These scenarios are referred to here as BAU (Business As Usual or the base case), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). BAU presents the scenario analysis of the base case to understand the implications of the current level of investment and spending profile on chicken meat and eggs production and GDP contributions throughout the LMP period of 5 years. The second, RLI, is the recommended level of investment which could achieve the agreed upon targets for the national development objectives. The additional scenario or MLI option analyzes the implications and impacts on production and GDP of a third option created for investment decision makers who face a budget constraint. It represents a medium level of investment between the BAU and the RLI option which could achieve the 3rd year impact of the targets for production and contribution to GDP under the RLI. For this 3-option analysis, the MLI level of investment was obtained by assuming the RLI option would only be followed through the 3rd year (see table 1 above) of the 5-year LMP period. Methodology LSIPT - Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit The ILRI team used LSIPT, the Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit, to build the herd and sector model (HESM) to then carry out the analysis to produce the LSA and LMP. 14 Spearheaded by AU-IBAR, LSIPT was developed by livestock experts at CIRAD, FAO and the World Bank. It had been tested in Mali and Zambia, and is now operational and has been applied in Ethiopia and Tanzania by the ILRI LMP team and national collaborators from the ministries of agriculture and/or livestock. LSIPT integrates micro, meso, and macro analysis for quantitative and qualitative assessment of household vulnerability, the role of livestock in strategy for poverty reduction, and the contribution of livestock to the overall economy. It accounts for the multiple functions of livestock, including: those of cultural importance; the contribution to food security and nutrition; and the supplier of draught power and manure for soil fertility. LSIPT provides a systematic framework for organizing accessible quantitative data (mostly from secondary sources), and includes tools to carry out analyses which help to understand the production potential of the sector, and its contribution to agricultural and overall economic growth (GDP), as well as reduction in rural poverty and food insecurity. Furthermore, LSIPT enables the running of alternative technology and policy scenarios to gauge the supply response of potential government investments in research and extension (such as technologies that impact on feed availability, animal health, etc.), as well as private sector investments over 5 to 15 year projection periods. The scenario analysis is transparent and readily understandable, and thus useful to policy makers and development investors. Moreover, analysis of potential impacts from changes in key aspects of policy, such as the enactment of food quality standards and regulations required to compete in formal markets (including export markets) can also be evaluated with the ALive toolkit. Further description of the LSIPT methodology is given in the diagram (below). M2 Coalition of actors Poverty focused livestock diagnostic made and strategy and action plan developed with multiple stakeholders to reinorce the contribution of livestock to poverty reduction. SM1 National expert team M3 Household level SM2 Performance of commodity chain M6 Monitoring & Evaluation SM3 Actors constraints & OPLI SM1 Establishing M&E system SM2 Conducting S&M SM2 Current policy context SM3 Stakeholders assessment SM1 Performance of LS & HH vulnerability M1 Initial assessment SM1 Importance of livestock sector SM2 PRSP assessment M4 National level M5 Strategy & action plan SM1 Summary diagnostic SM1 Contribution of livestock to the GDP SM2 Potentials of livestock sector SM3 Policies & institutions SM2 Strategy objectives SM3Action plan definition SM4 Implementation arrangements Modules and sub-modules Figure 1: Diagram showing the different modules and sub-modules of LSIPT 15 The core elements of LSIPT are the modules 3, 4 and 5. Module 3 assesses the productivity at household, value chain, and production systems level. These micro and mesa data figures are then consolidated and extrapolated to the national level in module 4. Once this data base is established, the participatory tools of module 5 can be used to identify, with all stakeholders, the priority sectors, target groups, and the most effective technology and policy interventions, to ensure optimal use scarce human and financial resources. Once the interventions are identified, financial, economic, social and environmental impacts can be rapidly assessed using the database established in modules 3 and 4. Finally using the tools, the implementation arrangements can be established on a mutually agreed upon basis. Key information and data needed for the quantitative analysis carried out in Module 3 and 4 include: a. A typology of the main different production systems prevailing in the country, with their respective number of livestock keeping households and livestock numbers b. Main livestock performance data for each species of livestock in each production system in each typology zone, with a breakdown by age group and sex, reproductive performance, mortality by age group and sex, average production, live-weight, off-take rate, carcass weight, etc. c. Feed requirements by species, age and sex of animals, as well as feed availability, as related to land and water availability for forage production, and crop residues and industrial byproducts d. Dry matter yields of grass and crop lands (for crop-residues estimates for animal feed) in each of the main agro-ecological zones Available data and parameters required for the herd models were collected from published papers and consultancy reports, as well as other “grey” literature. Gaps were filled through consultations with national experts. For the household survey data where required, available survey data collected by the Central Statistics Bureaus and research organizations was used, and this data was assessed to determine how representative the surveys are, and gaps filled in as needed. 16 Rwanda LSA Executive Summary This Rwanda Livestock Sector Analysis (R-LSA) was undertaken by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) with input from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) and Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) of The Republic of Rwanda. The study was funded by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to develop a fact based LSA and Livestock Master Plan for Rwanda (LMP). Using available data from secondary sources and national livestock experts, the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), developed a herd and livestock sector model and then carried out an assessment of the current state of the sector (for 2016/17) to inform the long term potential for livestock development in Rwanda over 15-years (a Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA)). The results of this LSA will guide in turn the preparation of the Rwanda Livestock Master Plan (LMP) which is a series of five-year investment implementation plans or ‘roadmaps’, to be used to direct the implementation of the national program to further modernize and transform the Rwandan livestock sector. It is also meant to help realize the development vision of Rwanda, namely the: Rwanda Development Vision 2025 to 2050 (Ministry of Finance and Economic planning 2016). This report seeks to inform Government of Rwanda policymakers, private investors, and development partners (DPs or donors) involved in livestock development on the current status and future potential for poverty reduction and economic growth of the livestock sector. Development of the LSA The LSA interventions, based on investment scenarios related to productivity enhancing technologies and improved policies developed by MINAGRI, RAB and other Rwandan research institutes and universities, were tested in accordance with agreed upon national development objectives. The criteria used to assess the investment interventions were to:  Reduce poverty  Achieve food security  Contribute to economic growth  Contribute to exports  Contribute to industrialization and employment  Mitigate contribution to GHG emissions Using measurable economic indicators for the above objectives, four key livestock value chains: dairy with crossbred cows; red meat and milk (from cattle, sheep, and goats); chicken for meat and eggs and pork (both white meat) – were identified in the LSA as having the most potential 17 for productivity increase through new investments to achieve these national economic development objectives and contribute most to the long-run development of the sector. A summary of the findings of the report shows:  The national herd, consisting at present (in 2016/17) in about 1.39 million cattle, 700 thousand sheep, 2.94 million goats, 1.8 million pigs and about 7 million layers, broilers and indigenous chicken, produces currently about 94.2 thousand Metric Tons (MT) of meat, 747 thousand MT of milk, and 243 million eggs per year. In addition the herd provides about 6.8 million MT of organic fertilizer.  About half (46%) of the dressed meat in Rwanda comes from cattle, followed by swine (21%). Chicken and goats make up 17% and 13% of dressed meat respectively, and sheep only 3%.  Sixty five percent (65%) of domestically consumed beef comes from crossbred cattle. Meanwhile, for mutton and goat meat only 26 and 8% come from crossbreds, respectively.  The contribution of the local cattle breeds to total milk production is only 9%, though they represent 43% of the national cattle herd.  Although the local, indigenous chicken now constitute 75% of the chicken population, they produce only 32% of the chicken meat and 34% of the eggs in the village chicken systems. Sixty eight percent (68%) of the chicken meat comes now from specialized broilers and layers and 66% of the eggs from specialized layers.  To facilitate the use of an analytical model created for this LSA study, a typology of the different livestock systems was developed, consisting at the first level in the (a) Low Rainfall Low Altitude (LRLA) zone which predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern plateau of Rwanda with a significant feature of farmland based grazing; (b) the medium rainfall and medium altitude (MRMA) zone which is predominantly found in the central plateau of Rwanda; and (c) the high rainfall high altitude (HRHA) which covers the western highland, Lake Kivu and South West regions. Livestock production practices which are modern, and which are to a certain extent independent of location and the broader zonation are classified as specialized production (SP) systems and analyzed independently due to their unique modern production characteristics and commercial orientation.  The geographic distribution of ruminant livestock (cattle, sheep and goats) show that they are not equally found across the three production zones. The LRLA and MRMA production zones support 74% of the cattle population and the HRHA 25%. The specialized cattle system is at its initial development stage. Most of the sheep are found in the HRHA (48%) and MRMA (43%) production zones. Sheep production in the LRLA zone (9%) is minimal at 18 present. On the other hand the largest proportion of the goats (40%) are found in the LRLA zone, followed by the MRMA (31%) and the HRHA (29%) production zones.  Fifty one percent (51%) of the national cattle herd are crosses, 6% pure and 43% locals/indigenous. This denotes that a significant achievement of dairy sector modernization has already accomplished by Rwanda.  Based on the sector and herd model projection, the direct and indirect contribution of livestock to GDP in 2016/17 is estimated at RWF 268 billion ($321 million)1, which amounts to 4.6 percent of national GDP and 14% of agricultural GDP in 2015. This contribution at the production stage does not include value added by the livestock value chains.  The largest livestock value added now is generated by dairy cow milk production which accounts for about 42%, followed by beef which accounts for 25%. Overall, including organic matter and hides, cattle accounts for about 71% of the livestock value added showing the continuing importance of the family cattle production system in Rwanda. Value added from goat meat amounts to about 10%, mutton 2% and the remaining 16% come from pork (8.4%) and chicken (8). The contribution from the specialized cattle, chicken and pig systems is less than 5%. Family cattle production for meat and milk cannot be ignored in any livestock sector development plan.  In the case of meat, if the proposed LSA investment interventions are successfully implemented, the results project production of 663 thousand metric tons of meat in 2031/32 which is 3.5 times the production under the business as usual (BAU) scenario over the same period. This increase in production would increase the per capita availability of meat from domestic production to 41 kg per capita, despite the fact that the human population in Rwanda is projected to increase, by38% to 16.3 million in 2031/32 from 11.8 million in 2016/17 (NISR 2014).  To increase the future per capita meat availability, it will be essential that both semi intensive family pig and specialized piglet fattening systems and the number of specialized broiler units be vastly increased. According to the LSA results the “with intervention” scenario, shows that 95% of the additional meat in 2031/32 would come from chicken (37%) and pigs (58%).  Overall, in 2031 with the LSA intervention, 80% of the total meat comes from pigs (48%) and chicken (32%). Cattle would contribute only 14%, goats 5% and sheep less than 1%.  Successful investment in broiler and pig improvement could result in an overall increase of 600% in all meat production and 410% in per capita meat availability. 1 1 US $ is equivalent to about 830 Rwanda Francs 19  In the case of cow milk, with the proposed investment interventions the LSA production projection for 2031/32 is 2.2 billion liters of milk which is 1.4 times the BAU production level for the same period. This would increase the per capita availability of milk in Rwanda in 2031/32 to 136 liters per capita or an increase of 115% from 2016/17 and 36% over the BAU situation in 2031/32.  The LSA results show that the future projected increase in milk production could be realized through focusing investment in better genetics, feed and health services to improve family crossbred based dairy farms, as well as commercial-scale specialized dairy production and processing units.  In the case of eggs, with the proposed LSA investment interventions, the projected production would be 1.9 billion eggs in 2031/32 or 2.14 times compared to the BAU case of 869 million. This could lead to per capita production of eggs in 2031/32 reaching to 114 eggs or about 5.7 kg per capita or an increase of 570% from 2016/17 and 211% from the 2031/32 BAU.  In the case of livestock GDP, if the proposed LSA investment interventions are implemented, the results project a livestock GDP of RWF 1.04 trillion ($1.24 billion) in 2031/32 which is an increase of 286% from the baseline year of RWF 268 billion ($321 million) and an increase of 81% from the 2031/32 BAU case of RWF 570 billion.  According to the LSA results, with the investment interventions total meat would contribute 60% of the livestock GDP in which case pork contributes 25%, chicken meat 17%, beef 11%, goats 6.4% and mutton 1%. For meat GDP, pork and chicken meat would become more important than beef. Cow milk would contribute 29% and eggs 7%, and organic matter 4%. This contribution to GDP at the production stage does not include value added from livestock activities across the value chains.  With improvements in animal health services and animal genetics, combined with improved feeding and better management practices, livestock performance improves substantially. In order to increase the production of meat in particular, a broader effort will be required to improve the chicken and pig sector.  Feed supply, in particular forage and fodder for ruminant livestock and grains and oil seeds for chicken and pigs, is foreseen to be the main physical constraint to expanding the livestock production. The huge increase in pig and chicken production would necessitate an allocation of adequate land for the production of maize and soy beans and importation of additional feed ingredients.  In 2014/15 the per capita meat consumption for the people of Rwanda was only 7.9 kg/year for meat, 59 liters/year for milk and 0.63 kg per year for eggs (MINAGRI/RAB 2015). In the LSA (2016/17) baseline the per capita projection for meat was 8 kg, 63 liters of milk and 21 20 eggs or about 1 kg. These values are far below the FAO nutritionally recommended level of consumption of animal source foods (FAO 1999 in MINAGRI 2004). Table 4 below shows the incremental production and GDP benefits that could be obtained for each livestock commodity as a result of the LSA additional investment interventions compared to the BAU interventions. With the additional investment recommended in the LSA, pork and chicken meat show a spectacular change in both production and contribution to GDP, followed by eggs. The change in GDP contributions for beef is small and this is due to the higher intermediate costs incurred per unit of change in live weight of crossbreed cattle and the shrinking number of the local cattle breeds. Table 4: Percent (%) change in production and GDP between BAU and the “with case”, 2031/32 Livestock products BAU "With Case" Production in MT GDP in RWF Production (% change) GDP (% change) Beef 75,173 11,4387 24% 0.3% Goats 27,699 54,639 25% 21% Mutton 4,161 7,263 29% 24% Pork 47,692 50,415 568% 405% Chicken 35644 43,466 493% 311% Total Meat 190,369 270,170 248% 131% Milk 1,628,347 247,580 37% 22% Eggs in number 869,193,349 38,713 113% 77% Hides & skins 2,259 1,078 45% 47% Organic matter 12,009,806 13,359 30% 214% The LSA investment interventions result in production of 663 thousand MT of meat, 2.2 billion liters of milk, and 1.9 billion eggs which would substantially increase availability of ASFs in Rwanda to help meet the nutritional requirements of the rapidly growing human population, expected to reach 16.3 million people in 2031/32. The per capita meat production/availability in Rwanda reaches to 41 kg which is eighty-two percent (82%) of the FAO per capita consumption requirement for a healthy life - a very significant improvement! The per capita milk production/availability reaches to 136 liters which exceeds the global average by 51% and that of the average for developing countries by 200%. This means milk and dairy products could be exported from Rwanda. In the case of eggs, the per capita production of eggs reaches to 114 eggs or about 5.7 kg. This exceeds the FAO recommended value and could supply the domestic bakery industry and other industries, or it could be exported after meeting the domestic consumption requirements. This leads to the following strategic policy recommendations:  Priority given to an increase in productivity or production per animal, by addressing the feed deficit, animal health and genetics. Key policy and investment actions to support 21 increasing productivity would be: the enhancement of veterinary coverage through private vets and private-public partnerships to reduce mortality and morbidity, the promotion of fodder, and maize and soya bean production through allocation of lands; and the accelerated introduction of improved genetics once feed production and health services are in place.  Through a focus on: increasing production and consumption of low GHG-emitting chickens and pig, dramatically regulating the higher GHG emitters, especially cattle as well as rapid reduction of local breeds of all species, where feasible except goats, through a higher offtake rate than currently, as well as additional investments to help achieve increased productivity for all livestock species identified as priorities in the LSA, the climate resilience of the sector (Vision 2050) could be improved substantially and the other national development objectives of the nation could still be met.  For the proposed LSA investment interventions to help improve food security for animal source foods (ASFs), an increase in the numbers of livestock will have to occur, but at a lower growth rate. The environmental consequences will need to be closely monitored. More productive crossbreds would also replace the less productive indigenous breeds. For example, with the LSA intervention the proportion of the indigenous cattle in the national cattle herd would drop down to 24% in 2031/32.  Indigenous cattle breeds do not seem to have a future for milk production in a land scare in country like Rwanda, as their yield per cow is too low crossbreeding should continue to be the focus of dairy development.  The key to realizing the great potential of the Rwanda smallholder dairy sub-sector is more investment in milk processing to ensure stable market prices.  Investment in sheep production improvement was not found to have much potential for helping to meet the national development objectives and is not recommended to be a high priority investment option.  Success in modernizing the chicken and pig sub-sector would also require complementary policy intervention: that sufficient land be allocated and put into chicken and pig feed production (especially maize and soybean), and the private sector be encouraged to invest in chicken and pig agribusinesses – especially day old chick production and meat and egg processing and pig meat processing.  If chicken and pork substitute for red meat consumption, then red meat could be exported to meet the GoR export goals to earn more foreign exchange. However, tastes and preferences for local chicken would have to be changed through promotion of exotic chicken meat and changes in cuisine. 22  The need for balanced policies to encourage investment in animal production and meat processing to meet domestic per capita meat consumption would also help with export promotion.  Special incentives (to improve the business climate, lower taxes, and increased training) could promote more value addition through processing and product transformation, combined with a clearer role of the public and private sector. This, in turn leads to the following scenarios that have been tested for their economic feasibility. The agent of change will be a technology intervention; however, they have to be supported by policy adjustments to be fully effective:  Dairy breeding improvement interventions, combining artificial insemination (AI) using higher quality exotic semen with estrus synchronization in all production zones.  In particular for poverty reduction an improvement in the local chickens through selection and reduction of reproductive wastage through provision of brooding facilities and artificial incubators.  Transformation of traditional backyard family chicken (now 75% of the total chicken population) relying on mass introduction of dual purpose crossbred chickens, which have far higher genetic potential for both eggs and meat, when combined with supplemental feeding and adequate health services.  The number and size of specialized commercial scale broiler and layer units also need to be substantially increased. A massive importation and dissemination of exotic chicken breeds by the private sector and through PPPs where the private sector is reluctant to enter on its own.  The number and size of family mixed semi intensive pig system and piglet fattening units also need to be substantially increased. The biosafety (HASP) measure at the production and processing units should be strengthened and killer pig diseases such as ASF should be controlled.  Rapid increase in private and PPP animal health services to provide critical vaccines, and GoR extension services to promote improved feeding and exotic chicken meat and eggs consumption;  Promotion of exports to more remunerative markets through the introduction of a practical and affordable system of animal ID and traceability.  Strengthening animal health infrastructure, quarantine facilities and services 23 Dairy value chain Development Roadmap (2017/18– 2021/22) 24 Dairy value chain development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22) Vision Increase milk production enough to meet domestic consumption requirements for dairy products and enable exports of the marketable surplus by increasing dairy cow productivity through improvement in dairy cow genetics, health and nutrition, and by increasing the crossbred dairy cow herd by 46%, milk production by 65%, and contribution to GDP by 53%, while improving the processing and marketing of dairy products. Investment scenarios analyzed The three dairy investment scenarios analyzed to here are referred to as BAU (Business As Usual), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). BAU represents the base case scenario with the analysis showing the impacts of continuing the current level of investment and recurrent spending on milk production and contribution to GDP throughout the LMP analysis period of 5 years. RLI is the recommended level of investment which could achieve the agreed upon national development objectives. MLI analyzes the impacts on milk production and GDP of a third option created for investment decision makers who face a budget constraint. It represents a medium level of investment between the BAU and the RLI option. The RLI scenario is first analyzed and compared to the baseline year (2016/2017) production and contribution to GDP. Then the MLI option is compared to the baseline year (2016/2017) production and GDP contribution. RLI and MLI are then both compared to the BAU scenario impacts (production and GDP contribution) in the 5th year of the LMP period (2021/22) to gauge their differential impacts one to the other. Overall Targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI)  Currently, there are about 799 thousand crossbreed dairy cattle in Rwanda and it is projected that the number will increase to 1.17 million by 2021/22. This will be a 46% increase (Table 5 below)  In Rwanda, there was about 747 million liters of milk produced in 2016/17 and it is targeted to grow to 1.2 billion liters by 2021/22, a 65% increase over 5 years (Table 6 below)  The current national annualized average milk production per cow is about 909 liters and the target for 2021/22 is to reach at 1,281 liters, 41% increase (Table 7).  Mainly due to the dairy, but also from the red meat improvement interventions, the GDP contribution of milk at nation level is expected to increase from 113 billion RWF in 2016/17 to 163 billion RWF in 2021/22, a 53% increase (Table, 8). Specific targets under RLI The targets for dairy crossbred dairy cattle numbers, milk production, milk production per cow, and contribution to GDP are given for the specific dairy systems by production typology zones in tables 5-8 below. 25 To facilitate the use of the analytical model created for this LSA study, a typology of the different livestock systems was developed, consisting at the first level in the (a) Low Rainfall Low Altitude (LRLA) zone which predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern plateau of Rwanda with a significant feature of farmland based grazing; (b) the medium rainfall and medium altitude (MRMA) zone which is predominantly found in the central plateau of Rwanda; and (c) the high rainfall high altitude (HRHA) which covers the western highlands, or the Lake Kivu and South West regions. Livestock production practices which are modern, and which are to a large extent independent of location and the production zonation are classified as specialized production (SP) systems and analyzed independently due to their unique modern production characteristics and commercial market orientation. Table 5 Current and projected number of crossbreed cattle at national and by production system/zone under RLI Livestock production systems Livestock production zone National and production system crossbred number % Change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Improved Family Dairy (IFD) LRLA 292,822 316,248 341,548 368,872 398,382 430,252 47% MRMA 285,171 307,985 332,624 359,234 387,972 419,010 47% HRHA 203,932 220,247 237,867 256,896 277,448 299,643 47% Sub-total (IFD) 781,926 844,480 912,038 985,002 1,063,802 1,148,906 47% Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Grazing based (Gishwati) 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 0% Non grazing based (all zones) 3,199 3,313 3,431 3,552 3,679 3,809 19% Sub-total (CSD) 16,971 17,085 17,202 17,324 17,450 17,581 4% National number of crossbred 798,897 861,565 929,241 1,002,326 1,081,252 1,166,487 46% 26 Table 6. Current and projected milk production in Rwanda at national level and by production zone/system Livestock production zone production system National and production zone/system milk production (000' liters) % Change (five years) Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Meat-Milk system (Local breeds) and Improved Family Dairy (IFD) (crossbreds) LRLA Meat-Milk (Local breeds) 24,888 24,099 23,335 22,595 21,879 21,185 -14.9% IFD (crossbred) 227,488 253,663 282,850 315,396 351,686 392,152 72.4% MRMA Meat-Milk (Local breeds) 28,183 27,263 26,373 25,512 24,680 23,874 -15.3% IFD (crossbred) 242,624 270,290 301,112 335,448 373,699 416,312 71.6% HRHA Meat-Milk (Local breed) 17,643 17,064 16,504 15,962 15,437 14,930 -15.4% IFD (crossbred) 183,774 204,873 228,395 254,617 283,849 316,438 72.2% Sub-total (IFD) Meat-Milk (Local breed) 70,715 68,426 66,212 64,069 61,995 59,989 -15.2% IFD (crossbred) 653,885 728,826 812,356 905,460 1,009,234 1,124,901 72.0% Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Gishwati Grazing based (Gishwati) 15,721 18,031 20,681 23,719 27,204 31,202 98% All zones Non grazing based 6,267 7,365 8,654 10,170 11,950 14,042 124% Sub-total (CSD) 21,989 25,396 29,335 33,889 39,155 45,244 106% Total milk production 746,589 822,648 907,903 1,003,417 1,110,384 1,230,135 65% 27 Table 7 Annualized milk productivity of cows in Meat-Milk, IFD and CSD systems (liters per year) Livestock production zones Livestock production systems Milk production per reproductive female per year (in liters) % Change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Meat-Milk system (Local breed) and Improved Family Dairy (IFD) (crossbred) LRLA Meat-Milk (Local breed) 216 218 221 223 226 228 6% IFD (crossbred) 1,323 1,369 1,417 1,467 1,519 1,572 19% MRMA Meat-Milk (Local breed) 216 218 221 223 226 228 6% IFD (crossbred) 1,418 1,468 1,519 1,572 1,627 1,684 19% HRHA Meat-Milk (Local breed) 216 218 221 223 226 228 6% IFD (crossbred) 1,512 1,565 1,620 1,677 1,735 1,796 19% Average Meat-Milk (Local breed) 216 218 221 223 226 228 6% IFD (crossbred) 1,407 1,456 1,507 1,560 1,615 1,671 19% Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Gishwati Grazing based 1,890 2,191 2,539 2,943 3,411 3,954 109% All zones Non-grazing based 3,360 3,772 4,235 4,754 5,337 5,991 78% Average CSD 2,167 2,500 2,884 3,326 3,837 4,426 104% National average 909 974 1,043 1,117 1,196 1,281 41% Table 8 Current and projected GDP contribution of milk in Rwanda at national level and by production zone/system Livestock production zone production system GDP contribution of milk by production zones and systems (10^6) % Change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Meat-Milk system (Local breed) and Improved Family Dairy (IFD) (crossbred) LRLA Meat-Milk (Local breed) 3,861 3,722 3,588 3,459 3,335 3,215 -17% IFD (crossbred) 33,712 36,991 40,587 44,534 48,865 53616 59% MRMA Meat-Milk (Local breeds) 4,377 4,216 4,061 3,912 3,769 3,630 -17% IFD 36,346 39,880 43,757 48,011 52,679 57800 59% 28 Livestock production zone production system GDP contribution of milk by production zones and systems (10^6) % Change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 (crossbred) HRHA Meat-Milk (Local breeds) 2,906 2,798 2,695 2,595 2,499 2,407 -17% IFD (crossbreds) 29,288 32,197 35,394 38,909 42,772 47020 61% Sub-total (IFD) Meat-Milk (Local breeds) 11,143 10,737 10,344 9,967 9,603 9,252 -17% IFD (crossbreds) 99,347 109,067 119,738 131,454 144,316 158,436 59% Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Gishwati Grazing based (Gishwati) 2,343 2,343 2,343 2,343 2,343 4,086 74% All zones Non-grazing based 576 576 576 576 576 1,592 176% Sub-total (CSD) 2,919 2,919 2,919 2,919 2,919 5,678 95% Total GDP from milk 113,409 122,723 133,002 144,340 156,838 173,367 53% Milk in Rwanda is produced from two species; cattle and goats. The milk coming from goats is so small it is not considered in this LMP report. This section analyzes the impacts of dairy improvement interventions on milk produced from cattle only. The milk is coming from cattle produced from two production systems; the Cow dairy system, which mainly uses crossbred cattle and the Meat-Milk System which is dominated by the local breeds. The Cow dairy production system can be further divided into two systems, Improved family dairy (IFD) and commercial specialized dairy (CSD). The IFD production system is practiced by farmers in mixed crop-livestock production systems, uses crossbred cattle with small level of inputs and results in a moderate level of milk production. The CSD system, on the other hand, is a commercial scale specialized dairy production system. It includes the specialized grazing based dairy production that is mainly practiced in the Gishwati Rangeland and non-grazing based dairy production that is practiced mainly around urban and per-urban areas. The two Cow dairy systems (IFD and CSD) share a lot of common challenges, opportunities and improvement and investment options; however, to capture the distinct features of each system and make implementation of the plan easier, each system is discussed separately in terms of challenges, opportunities, improvement and investment options and impact of interventions. 29 Improved Family Dairy (IFD) under RLI Targets  The number of crossbreed dairy cattle in the IFD system will increase from the current 781 thousand to 1.15 million in 2021/22. The growth rate in number of crossbreds will be the same between different production zones (Table 5).  The production of milk from the IFD system will increase from 653 million liters in the base year to 1.12 billion liters in 2021/22, a 72% increase from the base year (Table 6).  Annual milk production of a cow in the IFD system will increase from 1,407 lt/year in the base year to 1,671 lt/year in 2021/22, a 19% increase in productivity (Table 7).  Due to the dairy improvement interventions in the IFD system, the GDP contribution of milk from the system is expected to increase from 99 billion RWF in 2016/17 to 158 billion RWF in 2021/22, increase in 59% (Table 8). Table 9: Key challenges and strategies related to IFD: Key challenges Strategies 1. Feed availability and quality  Scarcity and low quality of feed stuff (forage, concentrate)  Limited supplementation  Inadequate use of available feed resources  Limited marketing and high cost of forage feed  Shortage of water  Strengthening the extension service and training on forage production, conservation and feeding  Improve the use of available feed resources (crop residues and all other resources)  Enforcing feed, forage and forage seed quality standards  Rainwater conservation 2. Low genetic potential of indigenous animals for milk production  Inadequate and inefficient AI services.  Local breed low genetic potential for milk production  Exotic breeds have low adaptability to disease and harsh management conditions  Promoting, expanding, and strengthening privatization of AI, and AI with synchronization services;  Providing training, backup support and incentives to livestock farmers to work as AI technicians.  Establishing and strengthening dairy heifer multiplication farms through private, public and private-public joint ventures;  Encourage cross-breeding with improved dairy breeds  Improve extrinsic factors to enhance adaptability of exotic breeds  Put in place herd record scheme 30 Key challenges Strategies 3. Animal health services  High prevalence of TBD and other parasites (Tsetse Fly, helminthes), mastitis and brucellosis  Incidence of Transboundary diseases,  High calf mortality;  Inefficient animal health services;  Poor quality control of drugs and supplies;  Inadequate of professionalism in farming (hobby farming, low knowledge, low access to capital investment)  Reinforcement of diseases control interventions  Enhance disease surveillance (empower veterinary laboratories)  Enhance and encourage private animal health service delivery  Improving availability and quality control of vaccines and drugs  Harmonization of animal health management in the countries within the region 4. Marketing and processing  Fluctuations in milk supply due to seasonality (dry and wet seasons)  Unreliable transport system  Insufficient number of milk processing plants  An absence of quality-based pricing incentives;  Poor milk quality control and enforcement mechanisms  Existing informal trade of raw milk which pose threat to zoonosis; and  Limited promotion of dairy-product consumption;  Lack of grading & pricing schemes of animal products  Informal milk cross border trade  Promote investment in milk processing  Put in place animal products grading and pricing policies  Introduction of quality-based standards and pricing to encourage quality milk supply  Strengthen enforcement of milk and milk products quality standards  Formalize milk trade by training and licensing of milk traders  Upscale the on-going school milk feeding programs to promote milk consumption  Create and promote awareness of milk consumption  Invest in Feeder roads  Put in place a framework for the enforcement of all existing regulations (eg; ministerial order on milk) 5. Policy  Pricing policies causing disincentives to involve in milk processing industries  Put in place indicative prices for milk products  Reduce the bureaucracy and facilitate investment in the dairy industry 31 Interventions to achieve targets I. Intervention area/s (production zone/s): Dairy improvement intervention can be practiced in all over the country and all livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones) II. Priority interventions Feed and feeding  Promote improved grass and leguminous feed productions in all accessible areas including backyard, hedge and live fence. Feeds like Pennisetum, Brachiaria, Leucaena, Sesbana, Calliandra, Chloris gayana, Panicum Maximum, desmodium sp, etc.). Adoption rate and coverage of this technology expected to reach 50% and 100%, respectively, in the coming 5 years (González et.al, 20162).  Improve production, marketing and quality control of forage and forage seeds through strengthening existing regulatory bodies  Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in the dairy system  Increase the use of crop residues e.g.: maize drying on the field to be used and conserved for animal feed  Increasing access to water – prioritizing water shortage areas  Promote allocation of land for production of improved pasture/forage  Increase the efficient use of forages and crop residues (e.g. conservation)  Create an industry for producing feed additives (minerals, vitamins, amino acids)  Increase availability of cereals (e.g. importation)  Promote the use of concentrates/processed feeds from feed processing plants  Mobilize farmers associations to organize group purchase and distribution of processed feed  Research on:  Successful forages species according to zones  The real quantity of forages and post-harvest that Rwanda can produce in comparison to actual and projected demands Health  Coverage of health service will reach 100%  Farmers that adopt the recommended rate of tick control treatments will reach 60% in the coming 5 years  All animals that need vaccination against endemic (ECF, BQ, brucellosis, Rabies), epidemic diseases (FMD, LSD, RVF) will receive vaccines.  Enforce FMD and CBPP free Rwanda in 5 years to improve the acceptance of products from importing countries  Rate (%) of animal/animal product movement permits issued will be 100% 2 González C; Schiek B; Mwendia S; Prager SD. 2016. Improved forages and milk production in East Africa. A case study in the series: Economic foresight for understanding the role of investments in agriculture for the global food system. Cali, CO: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). 48 p. 32  Strengthen capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines, and supervise mass vaccination programs  Strengthen veterinary diagnosis laboratories  Promote private vet service providers  Farmers that adopt mastitis control and management technologies will reach 60% in 5 years. Currently 60% of cattle have mastitis cases. Extension  Intensive diary improvement trainings will reach 60% of dairy cattle owners in 5 years. Farmers will receive more intensive training in relation to dairy cattle management (feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling and transport)  Percent of MCCs and cooperatives providing dairy input supply, animal health, extension and financial services increases from about the current 38%3 to 80% in 5 years  Build the capacity of extension agents  Increase extension services delivery through farmer associations Genetics  The population of local breed cattle will decrease while the number of crossbred and the total number of cattle increases. The growth rate of cattle number should slow down and eventually become zero percent depending on the available feed (the assumptions for future cattle population growth is indicated in Annex).  The number of local breed decrease by an annual growth rate of about -4%. The average growth rate of local breed cattle trend for the past 10 years was about -4% (RAB, report).  The number of crossbreed cattle increase by annual growth rate of up to 8% in the first five years (2016/17 – 2021/22). The average growth rate trend of crossbreed cattle for the last 10 years is about 16% (RAB, report).  The overall cattle population will be growing with only 2.7% the first five years and slows after that. The current cattle population growth rate is around 3% (RAB, report)  Improve the efficiency of AI service through promoting private AI practitioners and training of AI technicians  Extend the use of AI. Currently only up to 15% of cows can get the service4.  Continuous research on exotic breeds and their adaptability to the production systems  Expand performance and pedigree records Marketing and processing5 The priority interventions related to marketing and processing of milk include: 3 IFAD, 2016. Rwanda Dairy Development Project, detailed design report. 4 Both insemination and semen production targets for 2016/17 shows that (RAB, 2016/17), only 15% of cows can be inseminated annually. There is a plan to inseminate 118,000 cows and produce 160,000 dose of semen by 2016/17. With 55% ratio for reproductive females (about 765,094 cows). The number of cows that would be inseminated with AI service would be 118,000/765,094 = 15% 5 The December 2015 Ministerial Order (MO) regulating the collection, transportation and selling of milk, requires all milk sold in the country must first be collected at a place where its quality testing is possible. The law recognizes two types of milk collection points: simple sheltered milk collection sites and modern milk collection centers. 33  Increase the functional capacity and utilization of existing MCCs6.  About 150 additional MCCs are required at 90% utilization of capacity with milk collection capacity of 5,000 lts/day to collect the total milk currently sold in the country. o 150 MCCs and 200 milk collection sites will be established in the five years.  Strengthen existing dairy cooperatives and establish new 150 cooperatives  Enhance the capacity of existing MCCs to test antibiotic residues, mastitis and start to fully enforce existing milk quality standards at MCCs in the coming 5 years  Establish functional linkage between private milk traders, MCCs, cooperatives and processing plants as observed in Gicimbu district, Kageyo dairy cooperative  Improve grading and quality based pricing of milk and milk products  Percent of milk collected in the formal market to increase from the current 10-15% to 80% in 5 years  Attract local and international investors in milk cold chain and milk processing  Improve feeder roads to and from MCCs/MCPs  Encourage establishment of new milk processing plants (pasteurized milk, UHT and powdered milk) that can process at least a sum of 675 MT/day. Currently Rwanda has a capacity of processing 280 MT/day7. With the assumption that most of the milk collected by MCCs will go to processing plants, milk processing capacity of additional 675 MT/day is required in the coming 5 years. Assumptions and targets in the IFD system resulting from dairy VC improvement interventions under RLI I. Improved Family Dairy (IFD) production Assumptions for the IFD system: the following assumptions hold for those who adopt the dairy improvement interventions:  Parturition rate to increase by 10% (Argent, et.al. 20148)  Mortality rate to decrease by 20% to 40%  The growth rate for the number of crossbred cattle will be about positive 8% and local breeds negative 4% (due to the feed constraint, higher productivity and higher profitability of crossbred cows) 6 Under current situation, about 30% of the milk is consumed at home while rest is sold and only 10-15% goes to the formal market. However, based on the new MO, up to 70% of the milk i.e. around 500,000 MT (709,399,650*70%) need to pass through milk collection sites/centers. In Rwanda, there are 100 MCCs (28 fully functional, 58 not fully functional and 14 not functional) (IFAD, 2016). Though more than 60% of MCCs work under capacity of the threshold of 2,000 lt/day, the total installed capacity of existing MCCs is around 200 - 300 MT/day (IFAD, 2016). 7 The country has five main milk processing plants and about 25-30 small and medium scale processors of cheese and other dairy products (IFAD, 2016). In total, Rwanda is currently estimated to have about 280 MT/day milk processing capacity (around 84,000 MR/year), with utilization of around 35-40% of the total installed capacity. The five main processing plants include Inyange Industries, Crystal Industries (only 7 months old with a production capacity of 100 MT per day but currently operating at 10% capacity but rapidly expanding) Nyanza Dairy, Savanah Dairy, Haji Dairy and Blessed Dairies 8 Argent J., Augsburg B., Raul I. 2014. Livestock asset transfers with and without training: Evidence from Rwanda. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 108. PP 19–39. 34  Lactation length to increase from 270 to 300 days  Daily milk production to increase by 30% (González et.al, 20169, Argent, et.al. 2014)  Expense for purchase of forage seeds and forage cuttings increases by 20%  Amount of purchased concentrate/processed feed to increase by at least 2-3 kg/day/lactating cow. At least 50% of crossbred cow owners in the country are assumed to feed 2-3 kg/day/cow by the 5th year (2021/22) of the LMP  Expenditure for veterinary services will double (increase 50%) IFD investments under RLI The investment costs of dairy improvement are categorized into six major intervention areas – feed, genetics and breeding, health, extension, research and milk marketing and value addition. The investment cost for milk marketing and value addition takes the highest share of the total investment (about 40 billion RWF, 80%) and 71% will be funded by the private sector (Table 11). Genetics and breeding takes the second highest share of the total investment cost followed by research and feed improvement investment costs. The total dairy cattle improvement investment costs for the LMP 5-year period (2017/18 – 2021/22) add up to RWF 50.5 billion; out of which 58% is expected to come from the private sector, while the rest (42%) is expected to be funded by the public sector (Gov’t, NGOs, etc.) (Table 11). 9 González C; Schiek B; Mwendia S; Prager SD. 2016. Improved forages and milk production in East Africa. A case study in the series: Economic foresight for understanding the role of investments in agriculture for the global food system. Cali, CO: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). 48 p. 35 Table 10. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs (2017/18 – 2021/22) No Investment Intervention Unit Quantity Unite cost (10^6 RWF) Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total 1 Animal Feeding Support to forage seed multipliers (initial financial support and small equipment) Ha 0.7 0.02 7.5 7.5 3.7 18.7 Public 30%, private 70% Support small scale feed processing units (initial investment) Processing units 25 2.49 24.9 24.9 12.5 62.3 Public 30%, private 70% i i Construction of 3 Commercial animal feed plants Feed plants 3 This cost is covered in the chicken VC roadmap as 100% private i v Improve the capacity of existing feed quality control laboratories laboratories 1 664.00 664.0 664.0 Public 50%, private 50% v Strengthen the existing pasture/forage seed quality control laboratories laboratories 1 664.00 664.0 664.0 Public 50%, private 50% Rangeland rehabilitation removing weeds, ha 1,000 0.04 13.2 16.6 11.6 41.6 Public 20%, private 36 No Investment Intervention Unit Quantity Unite cost (10^6 RWF) Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total over-sowing, fertilizer application in Gishwati rangeland 80% Sub-total 695.5 678.1 33.2 15.8 22.0 1435.5 2 Animal Health Equipment/ kit for vet technicians Vet technician 175 1.00 41.5 41.5 49.8 41.5 174.3 Public – 100% Rehabilitation and equipping satellite laboratories laboratory 2 14.11 14.1 14.1 28.2 Public – 100% Equip the national veterinary laboratory laboratory 1 14.94 14.9 14.9 Public – 100% Motorcycles for district DVMs and sector vets Motorcycle 300 1.25 373.5 Public – 100% Revision of AHW’s training manual Manual 1 8.30 8.3 8.3 Public – 100% Support private AHWs (kits including bicycle and cell phone) AHWs 70 1.00 33.2 19.9 16.6 69.7 Public 30%, private 70% Support private veterinary doctors (kits) Vet doctors 9 1.16 5.8 4.6 10.5 Public 30%, private 70% Sub-total 153.6 144.4 87.6 194.2 99.6 679.4 3 Animal Breeding and Genetics Investments Purchase of cattle and accompanied Heifers 5,000 0.76 830.0 830.0 830.0 830.0 830.0 3818.0 Public – 100% 37 No Investment Intervention Unit Quantity Unite cost (10^6 RWF) Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total packages in GRINKA program Rehabilitation of Masaka bull station and upgrade of lab equipment Station 1 182.60 91.3 91.3 182.6 Public – 100% Purchase of high genetic merit bulls Bulls 10 16.60 49.8 49.8 33.2 33.2 166.0 Public – 100% Production and diffusion of breeding plan Document 1 12.45 7.5 5.0 12.5 Public – 100% Nitrogen Plant Equipment installation Nitro. plant 1 415.00 415.0 415.0 Public – 100% Support private AI service providers (kits including cell phone) Technicians 200 1.16 10.0 8.3 5.0 232.4 Public 30%, private 70% Animal identification and performance recording (software, equipment and training) Lump sum 1 334.74 46.1 98.4 63.7 64.9 61.7 334.7 Public – 100% Sub-total 1439.7 1074.4 903.6 936.4 929.8 5,161.2 4 Extension Prepare, publish and distribute dairy cattle management training manuals Training manual 1 37.35 20.8 16.6 37.4 Public – 100% Training of national dairy master trainers Trainee 10 24.90 249.0 249.0 Public – 100% 38 No Investment Intervention Unit Quantity Unite cost (10^6 RWF) Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total (in country and study tour abroad) Sub-total 269.8 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 286.4 5 Research Infrastructure of livestock research centers and farm stations rehabilitated (infrastructure and lab equipment) Research centers 8 373.50 373.5 830.0 954.5 830.0 2988.0 Public – 100% Sub-total 373.5 830.0 0.0 954.5 830.0 2,988.0 6 Marketing and Value Addition Strengthen the capacity of milk quality and safety control laboratory laboratories 1 332.00 249.0 83.0 332.0 Public – 100% Strengthen existing dairy cooperatives Cooperatives 50 12.45 311.3 311.3 622.5 Public 70%, private 30% Establish new and re establish non functional dairy cooperatives (training, sensitization, equipping and facilities) Cooperatives 150 66.40 2490.0 2490.0 2490.0 2490.0 9960.0 Public 70%, private 30% Strengthen the capacity of Cooperatives 100 20.75 518.8 518.8 518.8 518.8 2075.0 Public 70%, 39 No Investment Intervention Unit Quantity Unite cost (10^6 RWF) Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total cooperatives to enable them give services like milk collection, extension, health, AI, financial private 30% Organize and capacity building of milk collectors (kits including bicycle) Cooperatives 1,000 1.25 249.0 249.0 249.0 249.0 249.0 1245.0 Public 30%, private 70% Organize milk traders Milk traders 5 207.50 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 1037.5 Private – 100% Strengthen existing MCCs MCCs 50 41.50 1660.0 415.0 2075.0 Public 70%, private 30% Establish new milk collection points Milk collection points 200 2.70 134.9 134.9 134.9 134.9 539.5 Public 70%, private 30% Establish new MCCs MCCs 150 2.49 83.0 83.0 103.8 103.8 373.5 Public 70%, private 30% Strengthen the capacity of National Dairy Farmers Federation of Rwanda (NDFFR) Lump sum 1 83.00 41.5 41.5 83.0 Public 40%, private 60% Sub-total 5,608.8 7,277.4 15,497.6 5,846.3 16,375.3 50,473.5 GRAND TOTAL INVESTMENT 5608.8 7270.8 15497.6 5838.0 16375.3 50,467.7 40 Table 11. Total investment and share of dairy improvement investment costs from public and private sources Impacts of dairy improvement interventions in the improved family dairy (IFD) system under RLI Milk production  Due to the dairy improvement interventions, the production of milk in the IFD is expected to increase from 653 million to 1.12 billion liters over five years (2016/17 2021/22), an increase in 72% (Table, 6). Change in milk productivity per cow  Annual milk production of a cow in the IFD system will increase from about 1,407 liters/year in the base year to 1,671 liters/year in 2021/22, a 19% increase in productivity (Table 7). GDP contribution  The GDP contribution of milk from the IFD system increases from 99 billion in the base year (2016/17) to 158 billion RWF in the 5th LMP year or 2021/22. The percent change in GDP contribution between 2016/17 and 2021/22 for IFD systems is more or less the same (59-61%) for all the three production zones for the dairy VC, as one would expect (Table 8). No Investment Intervention Investment cost (10^6 RWF) Investment cost share (%) Public Private Public Private 1 Animal feeding 696.62 753.98 48% 52% 2 Animal health 623.3 56.1 92% 8% 3 Animal breeding and genetics 4,998.5 162.7 97% 3% 4 Extension 286.4 - 100% 0% 5 Research 2,988.0 - 100% 0% 6 Marketing and value addition 11,690.6 28,232.5 29% 71% GRAND TOTAL INVESTMENT 21,279.26 29,188.64 42% 58% 41 Table 12: Activities time line and sequencing: Gantt chart under RLI No Investment Intervention Investment cost (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 1 Animal Feeding Support to forage seed multipliers (initial financial support and small equipment) Support small scale feed processing units (initial investment) i i Construction of 3 Commercial animal feed plants i v Improve the capacity of existing feed quality control laboratories v Strengthen the existing pasture/forage seed quality control laboratories Range land rehabilitation and removing weeds, over-sowing, fertilizer application in Gishwati rangeland 2 Animal Health Equipment/ kit for vet technicians Rehabilitation and equipping satellite laboratories Equip the national veterinary laboratory Motorcycles for district DVMs and sector vets Revision of AHW’s training manual Support private AHWs (kits including bicycle and cell phone) Support private veterinary doctors (kits) 3 Animal Breeding and Genetics Investments Purchase of cattle and accompanied packages in GRINKA program Rehabilitation of Masaka bull station and upgrade of lab equipment Purchase of high genetic merit bulls Production and diffusion of breeding plan Nitrogen Plant Equipment installation Support private AI service providers (kits including cell phone) Animal identification and performance recording (software, equipment and training) 4 Extension Prepare, publish and distribute dairy cattle management training manuals Training of national dairy master trainers (in country and study tour abroad) 5 Research Infrastructure of livestock research centers and farm stations rehabilitated (infrastructure and lab equipment) 6 Marketing and Value Addition 42 No Investment Intervention Investment cost (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Strengthen the capacity of milk quality and safety control laboratory Strengthen existing dairy cooperatives Establish new and re-establish non-functional dairy cooperatives (training, sensitization, equipping and facilities) Strengthen the capacity of cooperatives to enable them give services like milk collection, extension, health, AI, financial Organize and capacity building of milk collectors (kits including bicycle) Organize milk traders Strengthen existing MCCs Establish new milk collection points Establish new MCCs Strengthen the capacity of National Dairy Farmers Federation of Rwanda (NDFFR) Construction of 2 milk processing plants Continue and expand “One cup of milk per child” program 43 Complementary intervention and success requirements The following are crucial aspects of the dairy improvement interventions and success requirements  Improving the use of the capacity of the Milk Collecting Centers (MCCs) and dairy plants  Infrastructure development (feeder roads, water, electricity, crushes, etc.)  Establishment of community kraals (igikumba cy’umudugudu), and the support and follow up given to the GIRINKA program  Strengthening animal feed factories and distribution selling points across the country  Putting in place grading and pricing systems for animal products  Increase access to finance/loans through rural banks and credit associations  Making livestock insurance available  Continued use of improved technologies  Herd book development - introduction of the farm data recording policy  Empowering and supporting the Rwanda Council of Veterinary Doctors (RCVD)  Increasing the number of public and private extension workers  Planning and carrying out an extensive crossbreeding/breeding scheme using AI, AI with synchronizing hormone and/or bull service with quality dairy bull breeds  Improving the efficiency of AI, AI with synchronizing hormone and/or bull crossbreeding/breeding services  Encouraging private health, extension and AI service providers  Enforcing forage, concentrate feed and forage seed quality standards  Creating a conducive environment for production and marketing of feeds and feed seeds  Enforcing milk quality standards and supporting full capacity functioning of milk processing plants. Commercial Specialized Dairy (CSD) Production under RLI CSD Targets under RLI  The number of crossbreed dairy cattle in the CSD will increase from the current number of about 17 thousand to about 18 thousand in 2021/22. The growth rate of crossbred cattle number in the grazing based (Gishwati) CSD will be zero as the grazing land already has reached the carrying capacity established by the GoR. In the case of non grazing based CSD, the number of crossbred cattle is expected to grow by about 19% (Table 5).  The production of milk from the CSD system will increase from 22 million liters in the base year (2016/17) to 45 million liters in 2021/22, a 106% increase from the base year (Table 6). More change in milk production is expected in the non-grazing based CSD (124%) than grazing based (Gishwati) CSD (98%).  Annual average milk production of a cow in the CSD system will increase from around 2,200 lt/year in the base year to about 4,400 lt/year in 2021/22, a 104% increase in productivity (Table 7). Grazing based (Gishwati) CSD is expected to show more increase 44 (109%) than non-grazing based CSD (78%). This is due to the lower initial level of productivity of the grazing based (Gishwati) CSD dairy cows.  Due to the dairy improvement interventions in the CSD system, the GDP contribution of milk from the CSD is expected to increase from about 3 billion RWF in 2016/17 to 5.7 billion RWF in 2021/22, increase in 95% (Table 8). Similar to the milk production, this increase in GDP contribution of non-grazing based CSD comes from both increasing the cattle number and productivity increase; as opposed to the grazing based (Gishwati) CSD, in which case the increase in GDP contribution comes only from the change in productivity. Key challenges and strategies related to CSD under RLI Many of the challenges and strategies listed in the IFD section are also pertinent for commercial specialized dairy (CSD). Thus, only specific challenges and strategies which are important to CSD are listed here. Table 13: Key challenges and strategies related to CSD under RLI Key challenges Strategies 1. Feed availability and quality  Lack of commercial scale forage production  Shortage of concentrate feed and roughage (both in quality and quantity)  Lack of effective feed quality control and standards enforcement mechanisms  Making land available for commercial forage production by investors;  Enforcing feed quality standards, quality monitoring and control;  Promoting the establishment of flour mills and oil processing plants which will make more concentrate feed ingredients available i.e. wheat bran, wheat short and seed cakes; 2. Marketing and processing  Shortage of dairy technologists.  Inadequate number of MCCs and under performance of existing ones  Building the capacity of the dairy technology training institute (s).  Improving the efficiency of existing and establishing new MCCs and co-operatives 3. Policy and investment support  Poor milk quality control and enforcement  Limited number of commercial specialized dairy farms and milk processing plants;  Enforcing milk-quality standards as well as grading and pricing policies;  Enforcing an effective land acquisition policy for dairy investments (preferential treatment for accessing land for specialized dairy production, milk processing and feed production);  Providing incentives for investors to establish specialized dairy farms and dairy processing plants: 45 Interventions to achieve CSD targets under RLI The major interventions proposed to improve the CSD system are feed improvement (production, marketing and processing of more and better quality feed), increase in the number of crossbred dairy cattle and CSD farms, supporting private AI and health service providers to increase services to CSD farmers, and improved marketing of milk and milk products. Most of the interventions proposed in the IFD section will also work for the CSD system. The interventions listed below are assumed to be more related to the CSD system, though they also work for the IFD system.  Improve the productivity of grazing land in Gishwati by over sowing with improved grass and leguminous forage seeds used and use of fertilizer where applicable  Improve production, marketing and quality control of forage and forage seeds through strengthening existing regulatory bodies  Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in the dairy system  Promote allocation of land for production of improved pasture/forage  Create an industry for producing feed additives (minerals, vitamins, amino-acids)  Increase availability of cereals (e.g. importation)  Promote the use of concentrates/processed feeds from feed processing plants  Promote the use of recommended rate of external and internal parasite treatments  Ensure that all animals that need vaccination against endemic (ECF, BQ, brucellosis, Rabies,), epidemic diseases (FMD, LSD, RVF) receive vaccines  Promote private vet service providers  Farmers and dairy operators receive intensive dairy cattle management trainings (feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling and transport)  Improve the efficiency of AI service through promoting private AI practitioners and training of AI technicians  Expand performance and pedigree records Interventions proposed to improve marketing and processing under the IFD section will also be equally important to the CSD system growth and development. Assumptions and Targets for the CSD systems under RLI I. Grazing based commercial dairy (Gishwati rangeland milk shed) Assumptions10 hold for those adopting the dairy improvement interventions in the grazing based commercial dairy (Gishwati rangeland milkshed):  Parturition rate to increase to 85% (0.85)  Mortality to decrease by 25% to 50%  The number of cattle per herd (farm) assumed to remain the same (zero growth rate (0%))  Lactation length to extend from 270 to 300 days  Daily milk production increases from the current average 10 lt/day to 18 lt/day 10 The assumptions below are mainly dependent on the ability of the milk shed to collect the milk produced in the Gishwati rangeland. Here, it is assumed that all the infrastructure (road, MCCs …) will be in place to increase marketing and collection of milk from the milk shade to 80% in five years from the current very low level. 46  Amount of purchased concentrate/processed feed to increase by at least 4 kg/day per lactating cow.  Expenditure on veterinary services and forage seed purchase will double II. Non-grazing based commercial dairy (Urban and per-urban CSD) The following assumptions hold for those who adopt the interventions in the Commercial non-grazing based dairy.  Parturition rate increases to 90%  Mortality decreases by 10% to 20%  The growth rate for the number of crossbred cattle will be about 4%  Lactation length to increase from 280 to 300 days  Daily milk production to increase from the current average 15 lt/day to 25 lt/day  Amount of purchased concentrate/processed feed to increases by at least 5 kg/day/lactating cow  Expenditure on veterinary services will increase by 50% Investments in CSD under RLI The investments listed under the IFD, above, work equally for CSD and the investment will be shared among both IFD and CSD systems Impacts of dairy improvement intervention on CSD Milk production  Due to the dairy improvement interventions in CSD, the production of milk in the system is expected to increase from about 22 million liters to 45 million liters over five years (2016-2020), an increase in 106% (Table, 6). Change in milk productivity per cow  Annual milk production of a cow in the CSD system will increase from about 2,200 lt./year in the base year to about 4,400 lt./year in 2021/22, a 104% increase in productivity (Table 7). Contribution to GDP  Dairy improvement intervention in the CSD increases the GDP contribution of milk from the system from the current 2.9 billion RWF to about 5.7 billion RWF, a 95% increase in five years (Table, 8) Activities time line and sequencing for CSD: Gantt chart The Gantt chart presented in the IFD improvement section, above, works equally for both CSD and IFD systems 47 Complementary intervention and success requirements for CSD The following are crucial aspects of the dairy improvement interventions and success requirements for the CSD system:  Provide incentives to investors and ease the bureaucracy to establish CSD farms.  Make land accessible for forage production for the CSD farms and forage producers  Enforce milk quality standards and payment schemes  Support establishment/functioning of milk processing plants  Enforce forages, concentrate feed and forage seed quality standards and ensure conducive environment for investment in production and marketing of feeds and feed seeds Medium Level of Investment Scenario (MLI) The above proposed dairy interventions and the resulting improvements are the product of the RLI scenario applied in the livestock sector of Rwanda. What will be the impact of reducing this investment? Likely the impact will be reduced at least by half. An additional scenario analysis called Medium Level of Investment (MLI) Scenario is done to see the impact of reducing RLI investment. In the MLI scenario it is assumed that the RLI option would only be followed through the 3rd year of the 5-year LMP. Under the MLI scenario, the adoption rate of farmers and coverage of the dairy improvement technologies are assumed to be half the rates in the RLI scenario. Table 14 below summarizes the national milk production and GDP contribution under the MLI scenario and compares it with the other two investment level scenarios (BAU and RLI). Table 14. Milk production and GDP contribution at three investment level scenarios by 2021/22 Livestock product Baseline 2016/17 BAU Investment scenario (2021/22) MLI scenario (2021/22) RLI scenario (2021/22) National milk production (in million) 747 1,041 1,082 1,230 Milk GDP contribution (in billion RWF) 113 158 158 173 As shown in Table 14 above, the medium investment scenario results in a slight increase in milk production and almost the same milk GDP contribution as the BAU investment scenario. The RLI scenario, on the other hand, shows a significant increase in both milk production and GDP contribution over the baseline, the BAU scenario, and the MLI scenario. The total cost of investment in the MLI scenario is about 25 billion RWF and is summarized in Table 15 below. This investment is half of the RLI, but brings little benefits over the BAU scenario. 48 Table 15. Five year dairy improvement investment capital costs under the MLI scenario (half the investment of the RLI scenario) No Investment Intervention Investment cost (10^6 RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total 1 Animal Feeding 348 336 17 4 11 715 2 Animal Health 77 72 44 97 50 340 3 Animal Breeding and Genetics Investments 720 537 452 468 465 2,581 4 Extension 135 8 - - - 143 5 Research 187 415 - 477 415 1,494 6 Marketing and Value Addition 1,338 2,267 7,237 1,873 7,247 19,962 GRAND TOTAL INVESTMENT 2,804 3,635 7,749 2,919 8,188 25,234 Conclusions The interventions proposed to improve cattle milk production and productivity in the RLI will transform traditional farms engaged in family dairy into more market-oriented improved family dairy systems (IFD) by:  Raising and realizing the genetic potential of local breeds for significantly higher milk production through crossbreeding with exotic dairy breeds using AI with or without synchronizing hormone, or use of bull services, combined with better feed and health services. Milk production and productivity of the commercial specialized dairy system (CSD) will also increase significantly by:  Bringing more crossbred cattle into the commercial cattle dairy system; and  Increasing the availability of quality forage and concentrate feeds by improving forage and concentrate feed production and marketing. Local cattle, or the vast majority of individual animals, also represent huge potential to bridge the national milk consumption and production gap. The intervention – mainly targeted at improving animal reproductive and weight gain performance – also increases animal productivity and total milk production significantly in all typology zones. These increases are achieved by:  The improvement of natural grazing (pasture and rangelands), coupled with health interventions to reduce mortality. These combined interventions could result in:  A 65% increase in national cattle milk production over the period of 2016/17 – 2021/22. The production of cow milk could increase from about 746 million liters by 2016/17 to 1.2 billion liters in 2021/22. In addition to the above activities, the critical conditions which need emphasis for success of the plan are:  Encouraging the private sector to invest in feed production and CSD farms; 49  Ensuring availability of more and better feed, forage seed, forage production and marketing, and health services in all areas, whether breed improvement is implemented or not;  Ensuring more effective extension services to support production, processing and marketing of quality milk It should also be noted that the following policy and institutional challenges need to be addressed to bring about the projected outputs:  Animal breeding strategy and regulation of animal breeding carried out  Livestock identification, traceability and disease surveillance reporting systems enforced  Enforcement of live animal and animal product traceability policy  Enforcement of milk products grading and incentive payments for milk quality  Enforcement and establishment of regulations for animal nutrition; standards on animal commercial feeds, crops residues, formulation of feeds, etc.  Standards on livestock infrastructure development enforced (slaughterhouses, laboratories, MCCs, milk processing factories, etc.)  Standards for vet and AI services and pharmaceuticals and supplies enforced  Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of government institutions from national to grassroots level, for enforcement of: all quality regulations and standards; livestock and animal products identification and traceability; and disease surveillance reporting systems 50 Red meat value chain development roadmap (2017/18– 2021/22) 51 Red meat VC development roadmap (2017/18 – 2021/22) Introduction Rwanda produced about 58,580 metric tons of red meat in 2016/2017, wherein 74 % is beef and the remaining 26% comes from sheep and goats. The red meat produced is predominately for domestic consumption, with little exports. Rather Rwanda imports a good deal of its meat and has a long way to go to meeting its domestic demand for red meat, and be able to export. There are technical, policy and institutional measures required to boost production and closing the domestic production-consumption gap to be able to pave the way for exporting. Vision The projected production of red meat by 2021/22 is achieved and Rwanda will be able to meet the domestic demand for red meat arising from a rapidly growing population, increasing urbanization, and rising incomes; and Rwanda will be able to engage in the competitive international market so that live animal and meat exports will take place to generate foreign exchange earnings. Investment scenarios analyzed To create the red meat roadmap, three levels of investment scenarios and their implications for total red meat production and contributions of the red meat systems to GDP are examined here to provide three investment choices for the decision makers in Rwanda; the government, private investors and development partners (donors). These scenarios are referred to here as BAU (Business As Usual), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). BAU presents the base case scenario analysis or the implications of the current level of investment and spending profile on red meat production and GDP contributions throughout the LMP analysis period of 5 years. RLI is the recommended level of investment which could achieve the agreed upon national development objectives. The MLI option analyzes the implications and impacts on red meat production and GDP of the third option created for decision makers who face a budget constraint. It represents a medium level of investment between the BAU and the RLI option. For this 3-option analysis, the MLI level of investment was obtained by assuming the RLI option would only be followed through the 3rd year (see tables 18, 19 and 20 below) of the 5-year LMP period. See the chicken road map for detail LMP three investment scenario analysis. 52 Overall targets under the recommended level of investment scenario (RLI) The overall target is to reach production of 79,586 tonnes of red meat by 2021/22, through improvement of feed from grazing land resources, animal health services, and animal genetics; and use of appropriate feeding technology. By 2021/22, a total of 64,400 heads of animals will pass through feedlot and non-traditional (culled dairy cattle) operations; and the contribution of local breeds to the overall red meat produced will be significantly reduced, leading the way for higher productivity improved beef breeds, young dairy calves and culled cows. Specific targets under RLI The production targets are given for the specific red meat production systems by production typology zones in the tables below. To facilitate the use of the analytical model created for this LSA study, a typology of the different livestock systems was developed, consisting at the first level in the (a) Low Rainfall Low Altitude (LRLA) zone which predominantly covers the eastern savanna and the eastern plateau of Rwanda with a significant feature of farmland based grazing; (b) the medium rainfall and medium altitude (MRMA) zone which is predominantly found in the central plateau of Rwanda; and (c) the high rainfall high altitude (HRHA) which covers the western highlands, or the Lake Kivu and South West regions. Livestock production practices which are modern, and which are to a large extent independent of location and the broader zonation are classified as specialized production (SP) systems and analyzed independently due to their unique modern production characteristics and commercial market orientation. Table 16: Annual increase in number of cattle RLI Base year 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % Change LRLA local 209496 201,410 193,636 186,161 178,975 172,067 -18% cross 292822 316248 341548 368872 398382 430252 47% MRMA Local 235092 225,172 215,669 206,568 197,851 189,502 -19% Cross 285171 307,985 332,624 359,234 387,972 419,010 47% HRHA local 147176 140,936 134,960 129,238 123,758 118,511 -19% cross 203932 220,247 237,867 256,896 277,448 299,643 47% Feedlot local 556 1,155 2,398 4,978 10,335 21,456 3,756% Dairy with grazing local 13771 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 13,772 0% Dairy with no grazing cross 3199 3,371 3,552 3,743 3,944 4,156 30% Total 1,391,219 1,442,696 1,496,078 1,551,434 1,608,840 1,668,369 20%  The total number of cattle shows an increase of 20% (1.4 to 1.7 million by 2021/22)  The total number of cattle in the Feedlot system11 shows a growth of 3,756% (from 556 heads in 2016/17 to 21,456 in 2021/22) 11 Per cycle, and three cycles per year 53 Table 17: Annual increase in number of sheep and goats in the traditional system under RLI Sheep Base year 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change LRLA local 44,088 44,648 45,215 45,789 46,371 46,960 7% cross 21,682 21,978 22,277 22,579 22,887 23,198 7% MRMA local 234,896 240,910 247,077 253,402 259,889 266,542 13% cross 73,721 75,572 77,469 79,413 81,406 83,450 13% HRHA local 295,608 304,979 314,646 324,621 334,911 345,528 17% cross 53,484 55,190 56,951 58,767 60,642 62,577 17% Total 723,480 743,317 63,698 784,637 06,151 828,254 14% Goat LRLA local 1,126,400 1,188,690 1,254,424 1,323,794 1,397,000 1,474,254 31% cross 32,351 35,055 37,986 41,162 44,603 48,332 49% MRMA local 864,651 910,651 959,098 1,010,122 1,063,860 1,120,457 30% cross 55,879 60,550 65,612 71,098 77,041 83,482 49% HRHA local 794,068 832,421 872,627 914,775 958,959 1,005,276 27% cross 67,643 73,298 79,425 86,065 93,260 101,057 49% Total 2,940,991 3,100,984 3,269,681 3,447,554 3,635,105 3,832,858 30%  The total sheep population in all production zones shows a 14% increase (reaching 828,000 by 2021/22)  The total number of goats in all production zones shows an increase of 30% by 2021/22 (from 2.9 million in 2016/17 to 3.8 million in 2021/22) Table 18: Contribution of cattle to national red meat production (in tonnes) under RLI Base year 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change LRLA local 5,124 4,940 4,762 4,591 4,425 4,266 -17% cross 10,384 11,251 12,190 13209 14,312 15,507 49% MRMA Local 6,092 5,885 5,685 5,492 5,306 5,126 -16% Cross 10,050 10,902 11,826 12,827 13,914 15,093 50% HRHA local 3,819 3,688 3,561 3,438 3,320 3,206 -16% cross 7,227 7,849 8,523 9,256 10,051 10,915 51% 42,696 44,515 46,547 48,813 51,328 54,113 27% Table 19: Contribution of cattle Feedlot and dairy sub sector to national red meat production (in tonnes) Meat production Base year 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change Fattening system local 64 134 278 576 1,196 2,484 NA Per-Urban Dairy local 622 629 637 645 653 661 6% cross 170 180 191 202 214 227 34%  The potential contribution of cattle to national red meat production grows from 43,553 (in 2016/17) to 57,500 tonnes by 2021/22 (32% increase). 54  The contribution of Feedlots to national red meat production grows from almost zero (in 2016/17) to 2,484 tonnes by 2021/22.  The contribution of the dairy subsector systems to national red meat production, through male calves and culled cows grows from 170 (in 2016/17) to 227 tonnes by 2021/22 (34% increase). Table 20: Contribution of Sheep and Goat meat to national red meat production (in tonnes) under RLI Meat production 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 change Sheep LRLA local 157 164 171 178 186 194 23% cross 106 110 115 121 126 132 24% MRMA local 837 884 934 986 1,041 1,099 31% cross 354 374 395 418 441 466 32% HRHA local 1054 1,119 1,189 1,263 1,342 1,425 35% cross 263 280 298 316 337 358 36% Total 2,771 2,932 3,102 3,282 3,473 3,674 33% Goats LRLA local 4523 4,920 5,352 5,823 6,334 6,890 52% cross 216 242 270 302 338 377 74% MRMA local 3507 3,767 4,047 4,347 4,670 5,017 43% cross 372 416 466 522 585 656 76% HRHA local 3187 3,444 3,721 4,020 4,344 4,694 47% cross 450 504 565 632 708 794 76% Total 12255 13,297 14,427 15,653 16,984 18,428 50%  The amount of sheep meat produced grows from 2,700 tonnes (in 2016/17) to 3,674 tonnes by 2021/22 (33% increase).  The amount of goat meat produced grows from 12,225 tonnes (in 2016/17) to 18,428 tonnes by 2021/22 (50% increase). 55 Improved Traditional Cattle, Sheep and Goat Table 21: Key challenges and interventions related to improving red meat VC under the RLI scenario Challenges Interventions to address challenges Feed  Lack of sufficient grazing areas to meet the feed needs of the animals  Poor quality grazing land resources  Inadequate knowledge on the use of crop residues and by-products  Limited availability of concentrates and feed supplements, when needed.  Sensitization on management of grazing lands  Rehabilitation of grazing land through over-sowing with improved grass and legumes;  Training and capacity building and skill development to increase the use and conservation of crop residues and by products.  Increase in the availability of cereals  Increased and better use of agro-industrial by products from the processing of cereals/grains as concentrates for animal feeding.  Promotion of appropriate storage and marketing of concentrates and feed supplements  Training of farmers on forage seed multiplication, proper feeding, and availing improved plant materials Genetics  Low genetic improvement extension coverage  Poor farm genetics recording scheme and lack of harmonization  Lack of proven adapted exotic breeds for beef production  Sheep and goat parent stock lacking  The challenges of improving the genetic potential of local animals could be overcome through selection within the local breeds; establishing community based breeding programs, which include developing a farm recording scheme; as well as promoting an animal identification and traceability scheme.  Use of cross breeding programs to improve production and productivity of Cattle, sheep, and goats  Importation/acquisition of improved parent stocks to support breeders  Harmonizing existing livestock data Animal Health  Poor animal health extension advice;  Inefficient animal health services;  Inadequate supplies and qualities of vaccines and drugs; and  Poor quality control of drugs and supplies.  Strengthening animal health regulatory capacity under the coordination of the Livestock Sector Ministry  Promote private service providers  Enforce FMD and CBPP vaccinations  Increase efficiency in animal/animal products movement permits Marketing and processing  Poor market infrastructure;  Poor technical knowledge of VC actors, especially processing technicians;  Inadequate market information; and  Poor linkages between producers and processors and export abattoirs.  Strategic capacity building  Building infrastructure  Establishing slaughter houses and modern abattoirs 56 Key assumptions to achieve targets under RLI12 Meat production from local cattle Intervention areas (production zones): Cattle meat improvement interventions can be practiced in all over the country and all the livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones). Priority interventions and assumptions Feed and feeding  Establish backyard, hedge and live fence with improved grass and leguminous feed production at HH level. Feeds like Pennisetum, Brachiaria, Leucaena, Sesbana, Calliandra, Chloris gayana, Panicum Maximum, desmodium sp, …)  Improve production, marketing and quality control of forage and forage seeds through strengthening existing regulatory bodies  Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in the dairy system  Increase the use of crop residues e.g.: maize drying on the field to be used and conserved for animal feed  Over-sow grazing land with improved grass and leguminous forage seeds and use of fertilizer where applicable  Allocate land for production of improved pasture/forage  The timely harvesting of grass, and storage and conservation of hay.  Invest in the production of forage seeds by GoR  Increase the efficient use of forages and crop residues (e.g. conservation)  Increase the available cereals (e.g. importation)  Increase the use of concentrates from animal feed plants  Mobilizing farmers associations to organize group purchase and distribution of processed feed  Research on:  Successful forages species according to zones  The real quantity of forages and post-harvest that Rwanda can produce in comparison to actual and projected demands Health  Coverage of health service will reach 100%  Privet vet service providers will be promoted.  Farmers that adopt the recommended rate of tick control treatments and internal parasite control will reach 60% in the coming 5 years.  All animals that need vaccination against endemic (ECF, BQ, brucellosis, Rabies,), epidemic diseases (FMD, LSD, RVF) will receive vaccines.  Enforce FMD, CBPP free Rwanda to improve the acceptance of products from the country within 5 years.  Rate (%) of animal/animal product movement permits issued will reach 100% in five years 12 The detailed red meat interventions for all production are presented in the LSA report. 57  Strengthen veterinary diagnosis laboratories Extension  Farmers will receive more intensive training in relation to local cattle management (feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling and transport)  Capacity of extension agents to be build  Increase extension services delivery through farmers associations Genetics  The population of local breed cattle will decrease while the number of crossbred and the total number of cattle increases. The growth rate of cattle number should slow down and eventually become zero percent depending on the available feed.  The population of local breed decreases by an annual growth rate of about -4%.  The overall cattle population will be growing with only 2.7% the first five years and 1.63% and 0.5% the second and third five years.  Improve the efficiency of AI service through promoting privet AI practitioners and training of technicians  Continuous research on exotic meat breeds  Establish performance (and pedigree) records Marketing and processing  Establish at least one export abattoirs13 Meat from Sheep and Goats: Investment options Intervention area/s (production zone/s): Meat production from sheep can be practiced more in medium and high rainfall areas; and meat production form goats in all over the country and all the livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones). I. Priority interventions and assumptions Feed and feeding  Promote backyard, hedge and live fence with improved grass and leguminous feed production at HH level. Feeds like Pennisetum, Brachiaria, Leucaena, Sesbana, Calliandra, Chloris gayana, Panicum Maximum, desmodium sp, …)  Improve quality control of processed feeds and industrial by-products used as feed in the dairy system  Increase the use of crop residues e.g: maize drying on the field to be used and conserved for animal feed In bigger farms:  Over-sow grazing land with improved grass and leguminous forage seeds and use of fertilizer where applicable  Allocate land and produce pasture/fodder  Timely harvest grass, and conserve hay. 13 The exact number of abattoirs to be determined after getting future production estimates 58 Health  Increase health coverage to reach 100%  Establish private vet service providers  Increase the number of farmers that adopt the recommended rate of tick control treatments and internal parasite control. Adoption to reach 60% in the coming 5 years.  Vaccination against endemic (PPR, BQ/Anthrax), epidemic diseases (FMD, RVF) will receive vaccines.  Improve the acceptance of products from Rwanda by creating an FMD, CBPP free Rwanda within 5 years.  Increase the Rate (%) of animal/animal product movement permits issued, to reach 100% in five years  Strengthen capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines, and supervise mass vaccination programs  Strengthen veterinary diagnosis laboratories Extension  Carry out intensive training in relation to local and crossbreed goats and sheep management (feeding, breeding, deworming, tick control, hygiene and milk handling and transport)  Build the Capacity of extension agents  Increase extension services delivery through farmers associations Genetics  Increase the population of crossbreed sheep (mostly Merino) in recommended areas, where owners practice good management  Establish record on the performance of crossbreed goats  Establish an on-farm herd/flock recording and selection scheme in the next 5 years to practice local breed selection and breed improvement  Improve the buck to ewe ratio at village level Investments under RLI  The time horizon for the project is 5 years.  Total investment budget is estimated at RWF 130,527 million, and 58% of the budget source is public. Private will provide 42% of the total budget respectively (Table 23) to be spent over the five year plan of the projects. 59 Table 22: Five-year Red Meat production improvement investment costs for RLI, the recommended investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget (million RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Feeds interventions Supporting farmers on improving grazing land through over sowing with improved grass and legumes 5,500 2000 2000 1000 600 11,100 Training and capacity building and skill development to increase the use and conservation of crop residues and by products. 2000 1000 1000 1000 - 5,000 Introducing technology on use of agro-industrial by-products from the processing of cereals/grains as concentrates for animal feeding 1200 1000 1000 500 400 4100 Establish appropriate storage and marketing of concentrates and feed supplements 3500 2000 1800 1000 - 8300 Training of farmers on forage seed multiplication, proper feeding, and availing improved plant materials 575 350 275 245 245 1690 Total feed 12,775 6,350 6,075 3,745 1,245 30,190 Animal Health interventions Establish a national guideline for disease monitoring and controlling 23 - - - - 23 Anti-parasite control and vaccination 2000 3000 4000 4500 4500 18000 Disease surveillance 800 1000 700 700 700 3900 Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation and housing 700 500 500 500 450 2650 Total animal health 3523 4500 5200 5700 5650 24573 Genetics and breeding interventions Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous cattle-Ankole through selection 600 500 450 450 450 2,000 Importation of suitable breeds for feedlots 16000 13500 7200 5700 5000 41,700 60 Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget (million RWF) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Establish an on-farm herd/flock recording and selection scheme in the next 5 years to practice local breed selection and breed improvement 600 600 600 600 600 3,000 Total genetics 17200 14600 8250 6750 6050 46700 Marketing, extensions, and research interventions 2 Big slaughter houses 1672 0 0 0 0 1672 1 Modern abboiter 1200 0 0 0 0 1200 Building the capacity of meat technology training staff 2500 1000 240 200 3940 Developing programs to ensure food safety and animal health through monitoring of abattoirs 1200 1200 Establishing new feedlots infrastructure 7000 0 0 0 7000 Establish quarantine facility 4000 4000 Extension services and research 2000 1000 800 1200 5000 10000 Total marketing 19572 2000 1040 1400 5000 29012 61 Table 23:Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat VC development under RLI Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 RWF) Total investment cost (million RWF) Public Private Animal feeding 21,890 8,300 30,190 Animal health 22,073 2,500 24,573 Animal breeding and genetics 5,000 41,700 46,700 Research 2,300 700 3,000 Extension services 3800 420 4,220 Marketing and value addition 18,000 3,844 21,844 Total investment 73,063 57,464 130,527 Table 23 below shows that 36% of the total red meat investment budget will go for animal breeding and genetics, and 73% this budget category will be sourced from the private sector (Table 23). The private sector investment amount for marketing and value addition is also quite small, especially compared to the public investment. Table 24: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for improving the red meat VC under RLI Key investment area Proportion (%) by responsible actor Proportions by key investment area Public Private Animal feeding 30% 14% 23% Animal health 30% 4% 19% Animal breeding and genetics 7% 73% 36% Research 3% 1% 2% Extension services 5% 1% 3% Marketing and value addition 25% 7% 17% 100% 100% 100% Impacts Production impacts under RLI Table 25 shows that under the RLI, the increases in red meat production from cattle, sheep and goats from 2016/17 (the baseline year) to 2021/22 is 32%, 33%, and 50 %, respectively. Cattle (72%) and goats (23%) are the primary sources of red meat in 2021/22. Total red meat grows from 58,579 tonnes in 2016/17 to 79,586 tonnes in 2021/22, an increase by 36%. 62 Table 25: Change in red meat production from cattle, sheep and goats under RLI (in tonnes) Species 2016/17 (baseline) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % Change in production Cattle 43554 46040 48667 51445 54380 57484 32% Sheep 2771 2932 3102 3282 3473 3674 33% Goats 12254 13296 14426 15653 16984 18428 50% Total 58579 62267 66196 70380 74837 79586 36% Table 26 shows negative changes in production of meat from local cattle breeds and big positive production changes over time from crossbreds in all the production zones. This negative change in meat production from local breeds is expected due to the population decreases of local cattle breeds as they are replaced by the crosses or pure exotic breeds. The Girinka program or “One Cow per Family Program” of MINAGRI is transforming dairying and meat production in Rwanda, through the provision of pregnant crossbred cows to smallholders. As well, the number of cattle going through the feedlot fattening system for meat production is expected to increase rapidly, partly as a result of the government’s Gako program which is seeking to improve the meat breeds in Rwanda, especially with Ankole cattle. Table 26: Red meat production from local and crossbred cattle by system and typology zone for the baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with the RLI intervention (in tonnes) Production zone Cattle Total red meat in 2016/17 (tonnes) baseline Total red meat in 2021/22 (tonnes) with red meat intervention change in production due to red meat intervention LRLA local 5124 4,266 -17% cross 10384 15507 49% MRMA local 6092 5,126 -16% cross 10051 15,093 50% HRHA local 3819 3,206 -16% cross 7228 10,915 51% Fattening local 64 2,484 3756% Dairy with grazing local 622 661 6% Dairy with no grazing cross 170 227 34% Total 43554 57,484 32% GDP impact Table 27 shows that under RLI the GDP contribution from red meat coming from cattle, sheep and goats from all production zones could show an overall increase by 26% comparing the base year with the 2021/22 projection. This amounts to RFW 95,145 in 2016/17, and RWF 120,161 in 2021/22. 63 Table 27: GDP contribution from red meat improvement under RLI (in RWF millions) Species 2016/1 7 2017/1 8 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2 1 2021/22 % Change in production Cattle 66,126 68,479 70,916 73,439 76,052 78,758 19% Sheep 4,846 5,091 5,349 5,619 5,904 6,202 28% Goats 24,173 26,060 28,094 30,288 32,652 35,201 46% Total 95,145 99,692 104,457 109,449 114,68 0 120,161 26% Table 28: Cattle GDP for baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with red meat intervention in all zones and systems (in RWF 000,000) under RLI Total livestock GDP 2016/17 (in RWF 000,000) - baseline Total livestock GDP 2021/22 (in RWF 000,000) with red meat intervention % change in national livestock GDP LRLA local 7595 6,147 -19% cross 16,411 22021 34% MRMA Local 8,576 7,015 -18% Cross 15,607 21,175 36% HRHA local 5,384 4,397 -18% cross 11,269 15,493 37% Fattening local 38 1,491 3,756% Dairy with grazing local 1050 852 -19% Dairy with no grazing cross 195 169 -13% Total 66,126 78,758 19%  The GDP contribution of red meat coming from cattle from all production zones and systems could show an overall increase by 19% comparing the base year with the 2021/22 projection. This amounts to RWF 66,126 in 2016/17, and 78,758 RWF in 2021/22. 64 Table 29: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011 Jul Dec Jan June Jul Dec Jan June Jul Dec Jan June Jul Dec Jan June Jul Dec Jan June Anti- parasitic control and treatment Adult stock immunization Young stock immunization Animal disease surveillance Strategic feed supplementation to the dams Introduction of flock/herd recording scheme Fodder production initiatives to get land Grazing land rehabilitation Extension work to support improved feeding of cattle, sheep, and goats Complementary interventions and success requirements  Empowering and supporting RCVD and increasing the number of extension agents.  Infrastructure improvement (feeder road, water, electricity, crushes, etc.)  Reinforcement of feedlots and animal feed factories and distribution through the selling points across the country  Strengthening the legal framework in the livestock sector (reinforcing the existing framework, and reviewing, developing and enacting/enforcing the missing regulations)  Encouraging the private sector to invest in meat slaughter and processing plants.  Putting in place the grading and pricing of animal products  Increasing access to loans banks  Making livestock insurance available  Improving technologies through livestock for records keeping  Introduction through enacting a farm data records policy  Introducing a practical herd recording system  A special support to farmers associations such us R.P.F.A (Rwanda Pig Farmers Association) and R.P.I.A (Rwanda Poultry industry Association) as the main actors in meat value chain, for empowering and strengthening them.  Provide avenue to the farmers associations to contribute to the extension of livestock and an increase of meat production. 65 Specialized cattle feedlots and culled dairy cattle Meat from improved dairy cattle I. Intervention area(s) (production zone(s)): Meat production from improved dairy can be practiced in all over the country and all the livestock production zones (low, medium and high rainfall zones) II. Priority interventions  Promote the production of calf stall feeding and veal production system  The minimum number of calves per unit farm that can have sufficient economic of scale is about 20 calves/farm/cycle giving an average of about 3,000 USD/farm/year. Meat from increase in the number of commercial big farms I. Intervention area(s) (production zone(s)): Intervention area(s) (production zone(s)): Meat production from big commercial farms is being practiced in area designated for improved ranching system in the low rainfall production area. II. Priority interventions  Farmers need to be recommended which specific breeds to rear in the farms  Increase the herd size of big private farms (in Gako) by range of 20-30% through purchase of additional heifers in the first three to four years; and maintaining constant herd size, once the carrying capacity is reached.  Promote and assist farm owners to practice more intensive production systems Targets Table 30: Contribution of the cattle feedlot system to national meat production (in tonnes) under RLI Amount of meat (tonnes) 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Fattening 64 134 278 576 1196 2484 3,756% Table 31: Contribution of the dairy production system to national meat production (in tonnes) Amount of meat (tonnes) 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Dairy with grazing 622 629 637 645 653 661 6% Dairy with no grazing 170 180 191 202 214 227 34% Total 792 809 828 847 867 888 40% 66 Table 32: Challenges and interventions in the specialized systems under RLI Challenges Interventions to address challenges Feed  Limited access to land for production of forage seed and forage;  Unable to meet the feed demand that is required at commercial feedlots  Poor access to quality concentrate feed; and inadequate concentrate available  Lack of effective feed quality control: standards and mechanisms of enforcement missing  Making land available to forage production investors;  Promoting production of forage for commercial feedlots;  Promoting the establishment of flour mills to make more concentrates available;  Strengthening the feed quality control authority to expand its operations  Promoting the establishment of agro industries for increased availability of by products that could be used as feed supplements. Animal Health  Poor animal health extension advice;  Inefficient animal health services;  Inadequate supplies of drugs;  Poor quality control of drugs and supplies;  Poor disease surveillance;  A lack of traceability and identification; and  Inadequate quality control in abattoirs. Strengthening the animal health regulatory capacity under the coordination of the Livestock Sector Ministry is the main thrust. Marketing and processing  Absence of quality based pricing;  Lack of holding area and feedlot space;  Lack of knowledge and skill on meat-cutting and –grading; and  Poor links to export abattoirs.  Building the capacity of meat technology training staff at the TMB;  Increasing training of meat processing staff;  Promoting forward contracting of feedlots and abattoirs; and  Investing in export infrastructure for animal holding and quarantine, as well as programs to ensure food safety and animal health through disease surveillance, monitoring of abattoirs, animal identification and traceability, etc. Policy 67 Challenges Interventions to address challenges  A lack of meat quality standards control and enforcement, grading, and pricing policies;  The policy on breeding not fully implemented ;  A need to strengthen feed production and land acquisition for feedlot investment;  Inadequate feed quality monitoring and controlling;  Need for further incentives to establish GAKO type feedlots (including land access in appropriate locations conducive to feed production, linkages with export market, and infrastructure – road access, power and water supply);  Development of appropriate standards for meat quality  Development guidelines on feed quality monitoring  Capacity building on quality control Interventions to achieve targets under RLI Increasing the number of animals fattened The specialized production feedlot system could be improved through better feed and health services, increasing the number of cattle feedlot units, and the number of cattle being fattened. Producers (fatteners) could be given training on cattle fattening procedures, including cattle selection and feeding; and on improving the efficiency of the beef value chain, targeting quality beef marketing. Table 33: Projected number of cattle fattened under RLI 2016/17 2021/22 % change Number of animals fattened/ unit/ year 556 21,456 3,757 Total cattle fattened14 1,668 64,368 Increasing the availability of feed ingredients required by cattle feedlots Table 34: Estimated amount of additional concentrate feed needed for additional cattle going to feedlot by the year 2021/22 under RLI Number of animals Additional number of animals in 2021/22 relative to 2016 Additional concentrate/year (thousand tonnes) 2016/17 2021/22 234,333 1,795,974 1,561,641 15616  The additional concentrate needed per animal will be 0.01 tonnes per year. 14 Number of cycles per year is 3 68 Investments under RLI in cattle feedlot Table 35: Investment in slaughter house establishment under RLI Type of processing Cost per unit (RWF 000,000) Number of new slaughter houses Capacity Investment cost/ plant (RWF 000,000) Area/ population covered Big slaughter houses (with rendering system) 836 2 2,000 sheep and goats and 200 cattle per day 1672 Towns and cities with 200,000 population Modern abattoir (with all required facilities) 988 1 3,000 sheep and goats and 700 cattle per day 1200 Towns and cities with 200,000 population Impacts RLI on cattle feedlot Production Table 36: Change in meat production from cattle feedlots (2016/17 to 2021/22) with feedlot intervention under RLI Products Total production 2016/17 baseline Total production 2021/22 with commercial feedlots intervention % change in production Beef in tonnes Cattle 43,553 57,484 32%  Total red meat production from cattle increases by 32% in 2021/22, from 43,553 tones in the base year, to 57,484 tonnes in 2021/22. GDP from cattle feedlots under RLI Table 37: Change in Livestock GDP due to interventions on cattle feedlots under RLI Product (meat) Total livestock GDP 2016/17 (RWF 000,000) - baseline Total livestock GDP 2021/22 (RWF 000,000) - with specialized feedlots interventions % change in national livestock GDP Cattle 66,126 78,758 19% 69 Table 38: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011 Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan June Jul Dec Jan June Implementing the roadmap for the rationalization of PP veterinary services Anti-parasitic treatment Adult stock vaccinations Disease surveillance Establishing quarantine facilities Establishing identification and traceability tools Quality control in Abattoirs Identifying potential locations for feedlot establishment Creating new feedlots Ensuring MoA support for establishment of feedlots in strategic locations Establishing slaughter houses Complementary interventions and success requirements RLI  Access enabled to sufficient production factors  Promoting the conducive policy and investment environment required to attract and facilitate private sector investment in feedlots and slaughter houses operations. Medium Investment level scenario (MLI) The medium level investment scenario (MLI) assumes a budget constraint to investing fully (as in the recommended case -- RLI). The key assumption made here to simulate the MLI is that only half of the RLI is made available due to the budget constraint. Key challenges and interventions under MLI: Key challenges and interventions to achieve the targets under the MLI remain the same as in the RLI for red meat production. 70 Impacts under MLI scenario Table 39: Rwanda red meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22) Livestock product 2016/17 (base year) 2021/22 BAU 2021/22 With MLI case % difference MLI/base year % difference MLI/BAU Cattle 43,554 53,728 55,552 28% 3% Sheep 2,771 3,171 3,363 21% 6% Goats 12,254 16,049 16,784 37% 5% Total 58,579 72,948 75,699 29% 4% Table 39 above shows that under the MLI scenario the impact on red meat production is moderately high as compared with the baseline situation. However, when compared with the BAU scenario the red meat production under the MLI option is higher by 4%. Table 40: Rwanda red meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22) Red meat GDP 2016/17 (base year) 2021/22 BAU 2021/22 With MLI case % difference MLI/base year % difference MLI/BAU Cattle 66,126 82,410 79,444.80 20% -4% Sheep 4,846 5,538 5,789.60 19% 5% Goats 24,173 31,615 33,007.80 37% 4% Total 95,145 119,563 118,242.20 24% -1% Similarly, in Table 40 above, the value added from all red meat animals under the MLI scenario is higher than the baseline situation by 24% and lower than the BAU scenario by 1%. Table 41: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart MLI Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011 Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan June Jul Dec Jan June Implementing the roadmap for the rationalization of PP veterinary services Anti-parasitic treatment Adult stock vaccinations Disease surveillance Establishing quarantine facilities Establishing identification and traceability tools Quality control in Abattoirs Identifying potential 71 Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011 Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Dec Jan June Jul Dec Jan June locations for feedlot establishment Creating new feedlots Ensuring MoA support for establishment of feedlots in strategic locations Establishing slaughter houses Table 42: Total investment and recurrent costs for red meat production under MLI Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 RWF) Total investment cost (000 000 Tsh) Public Private PPP Animal feeding 10,945 4000 14,945 Animal health 11,037 1,250 12,287 Animal breeding and genetics 2,500 20,850 23,350 Research 1,200 350 1,550 Extension services 2000 210 2,210 Marketing and value addition 9,000 1,100 817 10,917 Total investment 36,682 27,760 817 65,259 As noted in table 42 above the total investment in the MLI is less than half of the RLI. This represents a seriously constrained investment option. 72 Conclusions  The MLI impact on production and value added is substantial when compared with the baseline situation, but not encouraging at all when compared with the BAU situation. This result demonstrates that livestock, in particular cattle, which have a long production cycle require long-term and adequate investment commitments to realize their potential. Short term and limited investment means that the investment ceases before maturity, and thus ends up with limited production benefits, as depicted in the MLI situation here. Hence, the MLI is not a recommended option at least for red meat production improvement.  Given the potential production increases under the RLI initiative, there is a significant contribution made by the production systems i.e. the traditional cattle operations and Feedlots, towards improving food security, closing the red meat consumption and nutrition gap, and contributing towards economic growth. However, this can only be realized if:  The RL investments are implemented by the GoR and private investors in a timely manner; and are adequately funded.  Meeting the feed needs becomes a priority, and is followed by increasing pasture access (where possible) and fodder production, as well as increasing the availability of roughages, such as crop residues and agro-industrial by-products. The bulk of additional concentrate feed needed, particularly in Feedlots, is expected to come from investment by the private sector.  The policy environment to attract and enable sustainable growth in feedlots is continued and the vision of GAKO is fully implemented as a public and private partnership. Linkages are established for a viable stocker feeder program where the improved young male stock from the traditional sector are channelled to feedlot operations, including under GAKO, thus reducing the grazing pressure on the very limited grazing land in the traditional system. It must also be noted that the technical interventions alone will not bring about the projected outcomes unless the existing policy and institutional challenges are addressed.  Needed policies and strategies – to be enacted and implemented  On-farm recording scheme policy  Livestock products pricing policy  Animal breeding strategy  Livestock Coding System Policy  Livestock identification & reporting system policy  Livestock animal and product traceability policy  Regulations and standards  Regulations for animal breeding  Regulations for animal nutrition; standards on animal commercial feeds, crops residues, formulation of the feeds, honey, etc.  Regulations for livestock products pricing and standards on animal products and grading (milk, meat, honey, eggs, wool, hides and skins) 73  Standards on livestock infrastructure development (slaughterhouses, laboratories, MCCs, milk processing factories, etc.)  Standards on vet services and pharmaceuticals and supplies  Institutional framework  Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of institutions from national level to grassroots 74 Chicken value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) 75 Chicken value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) Vision The chicken industry in Rwanda will transition from largely subsistence to a more knowledge intensive market oriented sub-sector adding growth and value to poultry products. Both the family and specialized commercial operations will be transformed by using improved and highly productive breeds to ensure household food and nutritional security and higher incomes and significantly contribute to achieving the all-meat consumption needs of the nation. Investment scenarios analyzed In the investment analysis done to create LMP roadmaps, three levels of investment scenarios and their implications for total chicken production and contributions of the chicken sub-sector to GDP are examined here to provide three investment choices for the decision makers in Rwanda; the government, private investors and development partners (donors). These scenarios are referred to here as BAU (Business As Usual), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). BAU presents the base case scenario analysis or the implications of the current level of investment and spending profile on chicken meat and eggs production and GDP contributions throughout the LMP analysis period of 5 years. RLI is the recommended level of investment which could achieve the agreed upon national development objectives. The additional scenario or MLI option analyzes the implications and impacts on chicken meat and eggs production and GDP of the third option created for decision makers who face a budget constraint. It represents a medium level of investment between the BAU and the RLI option which could not achieve the national development objectives. For this 3-option analysis, the MLI level of investment was obtained by assuming the RLI option would only be followed through the 3rd year of the 5-year LMP period. Transforming the traditional village chicken production system Transformation of the traditional village chicken production system involves improvement in the traditional chicken value chain (VC) through improved productivity and marketing and scaling up of the commercial chicken sub system (CFC) and integrating it with the upper end of the value chain. Transforming the Traditional Family Chicken (TFC) to Improved Family Chicken (IFC) The proposed transformation of the TFC will have two components. One is to improve the indegenous chicken productivity through improved breed selection, health, feed and mangement interventions and the second one is along with health, feed and mangmnet interventions to introduce and distribute higher yielding pure tropical breeds that do not reporoducce themselves and distribute them to producers. Improvement of the traditional family chicken can be practiced all over the country and in all livestock production zones (LRLA, MRMA and HRHA zones). 76 A. Scaling up the commercial specialized chicken production (SP layers and broilers) The scaling up of the specialized chicken systems involve increasing the scale of operations or average number of commercial layers and broilers kept per farm, and increasing the number of specialized farms. Build capacity and put in place strict biosafety systems Integrate commercial production and marketing from downstream value chain to the upper end of the value chain including processing. Overall Targets under the Recommended Level of Investment Scenario (RLI) The overall target for the Chicken development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) is based on the RLI option which is to more than double the annual chicken meat production from the current 15.2 thousand to 35 thousand tonnes and the egg production from the current 244 thousand to 513 thousand eggs by 2021/22 through implementing the Improved Traditional Family Chicken (ITFC), Crossbreed Family Chicken (CFC) and expanded Specialized/Commercial Chicken (SP) systems – with Layers and Broilers. The recommended level of investment or RLI is needed to meet these targets. The improved Traditional Family Chicken (ITFC) and Crossbreed Family Chicken (CFC) sub-systems (20167/17-2021/22) Targets for ITFC and CFC under RLI Table 43: Number of hens and chicken eggs and meat production in ITFC and CFC 2016/17 2021/22 (RLI) Chicken systems Unit 2016/17 (baseline) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change ITFC hens million 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.0 34% CFC hens million 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.011 0.027 0.068 NA* Total hens million 5.201 5.502 59.004 6.211 6.627 7.068 35% ITFC eggs Thousand 83,310 97,712 114,605 134,418 157,657 184,913 122% CFC eggs Thousand 60 150 374 935 2,337 5,841 9666% Total egg Thousand 83,370 97,862 114,979 135,353 159,994 190,754 129% ITFC meat MT 5,080 5,690 6,372 7,137 7,993 8,951 76% CFC meat MT 1 2 4 11 27 67 9666% Total meat MT 5,081 5,692 6,377 7,147 8,019 9,018 77%  The number of hens in the ITFC grows from 5.2 million in the base year to 7 million in 2021/22, a 34% increase.  Number of hens in the CFC grows from almost nil to 68,000.  Chicken meat production from ITFC increases from 5.1 thousand tonnes in 2016/17 to 8.95 thousand tonnes in 2021/22, a 76% increase  Chicken meat production from the CFC increases from 1 ton in 2016/17 to 67 tonnes by 2022. *CFC is a newly introduced chicken system that does not exist, or hardly exists, in the base year. 77 Key assumptions for the ITFC and CFC systems under RLI  The flock size in ITFC will increase from 1 to 5 improved hens  Reproductive wastage due to time spent in brooding will be reduced by 60%.  Eggs laid per hen/year will increase from 40 to 90 on average  Average weight of sold adult chicken increases from 1.4 kg to 1.7 kg.  Chicken mortality before marketing will drop down from 50% to 10%.  The chicken will be supplemented with locally available feeds by up to 50% of their requirements  With dual-purpose crossbred chickens the minimum flock size is 25 hens; with a production of 150 eggs/hen/year on average and weight at marketing will be 2.5 kg  Adequate space for housing, better health services and feed supplementation is provided is delivered for dual purpose chicken *The detailed and quantified interventions are given in the Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) report in the Interventions Section. Table 44: Key challenges and interventions related to improving the family systems (ITFC and CFC) under the RLI Challenges Interventions to address the challenges Feeds  Shortage of maize, soy beans and other raw materials to enable the existing chicken feed processing plants operate at their full capacity  Competition between human and mono gastric animals for locally produced maize  Make more land available for production of additional cereals for production of processed feed (maize and soybean);  Facilitate import of chicken feed ingredients, maize and soybean.  Low nutritive value and low quality of commercial chicken feeds  Build capacity for Animal feed inspectors in various levels.  Strengthen feed quality testing labs to regulate feed quality (periodical processors compliance to set Standards)  Create awareness through sensitization on quality of chicken feeds  Build capacity for Animal feed processors Good processing practices  Regulating the exportation of oil crops and importation of cooking oils; and  Low institutional capacity to control quality of chicken feed produced and processed  Low incentive for the private sector to invest in feed processing plants  Tax holiday and other incentives to encourage the participation of private sector in the feed processing industries.  Provide incentives and suitable investment to promote agro-processing industries and feed processing factories  Facilitate establishment of additional large scale feed processing plants to cater the 78 Challenges Interventions to address the challenges growing chicken production  Low capacity of framers to formulate their own chicken feeds using local available materials  Extension and capacity building of farmers on technology and methods of formulating feed rations for chicken using locally available materials Genetics  Low genetic potential of the local chicken breeds  Improve the genetics composition of indigenous chicken breeds through selection within the local breeds for ITFC  Identify and distribute higher yielding dual purpose tropical adaptable chicken breeds to replace the less productive indigenous breeds in CFC  Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using artificial incubation artificial brooding facilities in both  Lack of availability of commercial day old chicks: the national supply of day old chicks is very low. Almost all the chicks are imported, mostly from Uganda, Belgium and Netherlands.  Encourage private sector to invest in hatcheries and distribution of cross-bred DOCs and/or pullets to satisfy the increase in DOC demand  Through PPP upgrade and strengthen the existing government hatcheries Animal health  Prevalence of chicken diseases particularly ND, FP, IBD/Gumboro  Poor housing and sanitation  Formulate bio safety guidelines for disease control  Enforcing stricter disease controls on the importation of commercial replacement stock;  Introduce chicken health management system  Strengthen the capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines, and supervise mass chicken vaccination programs  Rationalize public and private veterinary services, with privatization where feasible  Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation and housing Marketing and processing  Weak chicken producers organizations  Lack of cutting and processing facilities to produce market suitable chicken meat products  Lack of slaughtering facilities for chicken  Lack of egg processing plants  Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken traders associations;  Facilitate construction of modern chicken cutting and processing plants  Facilitate construction of modern chicken slaughter houses  Facilitate construction of egg processing plants 79 Challenges Interventions to address the challenges catering to domestic and export markets  Promote consumption of exotic chicken meat and egg in domestic households in Rwanda  Build capacity and put in place strict biosafety systems  Strengthen meat inspections (at abattoirs, standardized mechanized slaughters, and processing facilities  Weak Biosafety and HACCP facilities  Institutionalize mandatory biosafety and HACCP  Consumers poor preference for exotic chicken meat and eggs  Intensifying the promotion and extension work to change the attitudes of consumers towards consuming eggs and meat from hybrid and exotic breeds Extension  Strengthen extension services to improve the management skills of households raising indigenous and dual purpose chicken  Build the capacity of extension agents  Promote private extension service providers  Increase the delivery of extension services and awareness through associations and co operatives Policy  Policy related to importation of raw materials for processed feeds and regulatory enforcement of hatcheries and breeding farms.  Strengthen quality audit and compliance of the commercial feeds,  Establish guidelines and standard operating procedures for operation of hatcheries and breeder farms.  Establish guidelines for operation of hatcheries breeder farms,  Promote registration of hatcheries and breeder farms  Avail credit access to farmers and other actors in the value chain,  Policy related to land acquisition for chicken feed production.  Favorable policy for land acquisition for chicken feed production. Interventions to achieve targets (RLI) The proposed improvement of the traditional family chicken system via RLI transformation to the ITFC and CFC systems has two components: the first is to improve the productivity of indigenous chicken through improved breed selection, along with complementary health, feed and management interventions; and the second is that along with the health, feed and improved management interventions to introduce and distribute higher yielding dual 80 purpose tropical crossbreds. As well, reproductive wastage will be reduced by introducing artificial brooding facilities and incubators. Improvement of the traditional family chicken system can be practiced all over the country, in all livestock production zones (LRLA, MRMA and HRHA zones). ITFC and CFC impacts (RLI) Production impacts As the result of the intervention, the number of indigenous hens in the traditional family system grows from 5.2 million in the base year to 7 million in 2021/22, a 34% increase and the number of the newly introduced dual purpose improved family crossbreed chicken grows to 68 thousand. This is a slow process that involves testing for adaptability. Total chicken meat from the family system increases from 5.1 thousand tonnes in year 2016/17 to 9 thousand tonnes in 2021/22 a 77% increase. Similarly, over the same period egg production increases by 129%, i.e., from 83.4 million to 190.8 million. GDP impacts As shown in table 45 below, as a result of the additional interventions, the GDP contribution from the improved family chicken systems increases from RWF 20,317 million in 2016/17 to 37,128 million in 2021/22, a 72% increase which is substantial growth over 5 years. Table 45: Changes in GDP contribution of improved family chicken (RLI) Products Chicken GDP 2016/17 (RWF millions) Chicken GDP 2021/22 (RWF millions) Change in % ITFC meat 13,266 20,475.5 54% CFC meat 3 336.8 NA Total Family chicken meat 13,269 20,812.3 57% ITFC Chicken eggs 7,038 15,367 118% CFC Chicken Eggs 10 948 NA Total Family chicken eggs 7,048 16,316 131% Total Family chicken meat and eggs 20,317 37,128 72% 81 Specialized commercial chicken production (2016/17-2021/22) SP Targets Table 46: Number of chicken and chicken meat production in SP chicken subsystems (RLI) Chicken subsystem Unit 2016/17 2017/18 2018/1 9 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % Change SP layers million 0.77 0.89 1.02 1.18 1.35 1.55 101% SP broilers Million 0.97 1.17 1.40 1.68 2.02 2.42 149% Total SP chicken million 1.75 2.06 2.43 2.86 3.37 3.98 128% SP layer Tonnes 648 745 857 986 1,134 1,304 101% SP broiler Tonnes 9,986 11,983 14,380 17,256 20,707 24,848 149% Total Tonnes 10,634 12,729 15,237 18,241 21,840 26,152 146%  The number of chickens in the SP chicken layers subsystem grows from 0.77 million in 2016/17 to 1.5 million in 2021/22, a 101% increase. The SP chicken broilers subsystem grows from 0.97 million to 2.42 Million in the year 2021/22, a 149% increase.  Chicken meat production from SP chicken increases from 10,634 tonnes in 2016/17 to 26,152 tonnes in the year 2021/22, a 146% increase. Table 47: Egg production from specialized layers (RLI) Chicken subsystem 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 SP chicken egg million) 160.3 184.3 212.0 243.7 280.3 322.3 101 %  Egg production from specialized layers increases from 160.3 million in 2016/17 to 322.3 million in the year 2021/22, an increase of 101%.  The scale of operations or average number of commercial layers and broilers kept per farm and the number of farms will increase  Annual growth rate of layers and broilers over the coming 15 years will be 15% and 25%, respectively (Table 48). Table 48: Commercial layer and broiler projected population at national level (RLI) Breed type Base year (2016) End of first five year (2021) End of second five year (2026) End of third five year (2031) Layers population 772,674 1,554,123 3,555,457 7,151,293 Broiler population/ cycle 974,543 2,424,976 6,034,116 18,414,662 82 Key challenges and strategies related to the specialized layers and broilers system (SP system) The specialized and family chicken systems face the same challenges as the family systems to improve and thus need the same or similar interventions to transform the industry. Refer to Table 44 above for the details on the challenges and strategies. Interventions to achieve targets The interventions for SP chicken improvement involve increasing the number of chickens and thus the scale of operations and the volume of production from the specialized chicken farms i.e., SP chicken layers and SP chicken broilers. The major intervention proposed for the SP chicken layers and SP chicken broilers is increasing the number of birds and the number of specialized farm units using exotic pure bred chickens and modern industrial scale poultry management. SP chicken impacts (RLI) Production impacts  Chicken meat production from SP broilers increases from 10,634 tonnes in 2016/17 to 26,152 tonnes in the year 2021/22, a 146% increase.  Egg production from specialized layers increases from 160.3 million in 2016/17 to 322.3 million in the year 2021/22, an increase of 101%. GDP impacts As Table 49 shows the GDP contribution of the specialized broiler system increases from the current RWF 7.2 billion to 17.3 billion (a 146% increase) and eggs from the specialized layers increases to 8.6 billion (an 101% increase) over the 5 year investment period. Table 49: GDP contribution from commercial specialized chicken system 2016/17 and 2021/22 (RLI) GDP contributions 2016/17 (RWF millions) 2021/22 (RWF millions) Change in % SP Chicken meat GDP 7,160.6 17,274 146% SP Chicken eggs GDP 4,284 8,617 101% Total contribution 11,444.60 25,891.00 126% The total GDP contribution of the SP chicken system (broilers and layers) increases from RWF 11.4 billion to 25.9 billion in five investment period, a 126% increase. 83 Total production under the RLI scenario Chicken meat The total chicken meat and egg production from the family and commercial specialized systems is presented in Table 50 below. It shows an increase from 15,715 tonnes in 2016/17 to 35,170 tonnes in 2021/22 for meat which constitutes a 124% increase over 5 years. The total egg production from the family and commercial specialized systems increases from 244 million to 513 million which is a 110% growth over 5 year. Table 50: Total chicken meat and eggs production with additional investment RLI Products Unit 2016/17 2021/22 with case Total chicken meat from the Family system Tonnes 5081 9018 Total chicken meat from Commercial specialized system Tonnes 10,634 26,152 Total chicken meat production Tonnes 15,715 35,170 Total eggs Family system millions 83.4 190.8 Total eggs from SP millions 160.3 322.3 Total eggs production millions 243.7 513.1 Total GDP Table 51: Total chicken meat and eggs production GDP contribution with additional investment RLI Products GDP 2016/17 (RWF millions) GDP 2021/22 (RWF millions) Change in % Family chicken meat and eggs contribution 20,317 37,128.3 83% Specialized chicken meat and eggs contribution 11,444.6 25,890.24 126% Total chicken GDP contribution 31,762 63,019 98% Overall, with the RLI level of interventions the GDP contribution of the total chicken meat and eggs production is almost doubled, from the current RWF 31.8 billion to 63.0 billion over the 5 year investment period. Per capita chicken meat and eggs production RLI Table 52 below presents the per capita chicken meat and egg production in Rwanda comparing the baseline with 2021/22 under the additional investment scenario. Although the change in both meat and egg production is substantial, there remains a significant shortage of eggs to meet the FAO recommended requirement, which is 4.5 kg per day. This estimate is based on the projected human population in Rwanda for 2021/22, which is 13,252,272 (NISR 2014). 84 Table 52: Per capita availability of eggs and chicken meat RLI 2016/17 2021/22 “with case” % change Per capita availability of eggs in kg 1 1.9 90% Per capita availability of chicken meat in kg 1.19 2.65 123% The chicken investment is mainly to raise a large number of broilers and improved family chicken to produce enough chicken meat to close the gap between per capita meat production and the consumption level required to lead a healthy life. Table 53 below shows the implications of the impact of the recommended level of investment (RLI) on production and GDP over 5 years as compared to the BAU case. Table 53: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and RLI scenario (2021/22) Livestock product 2016/17 2021/22 BAU 2021/22 With recommended case % difference recommended/BAU Chicken meat in MT 15,715 20,589 35,170 71% Eggs in million 243.6 369.7 513.1 39% Chicken meat and eggs GDP in RWF 31,762 43,606 63,019 45% As shown in table 53 above the increase in the production of chicken meat and eggs and their GDP contribution is substantial enough to justify the investment. Table 54 below shows the required activities and implementation sequencing for the proposed interventions to transform the chicken industry, both family and specialized systems under the RLI scenario. Table 54: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart RLI Investment interventions Activity sequencing 2017/1 8 2018/1 9 2019/2 0 2020/2 1 2021/22 Feeds interventions Strengthen the existing feed processing plants through technology transfer, marketing extension to enable them operate at full capacity Establish 3 new chicken and pig feed processing plants each with 40,000 MT capacity Improve the capacities of chicken feed quality and biosafety (HACCP) control laboratories. Build capacity for Animal feed inspectors Land allocation for production of maize and soya beans and other raw materials for supplying the feed processing plants 85 Investment interventions Activity sequencing 2017/1 8 2018/1 9 2019/2 0 2020/2 1 2021/22 Setting a procedure to facilitate importation additional raw materials in such as maize to supply the feed processing industries Build capacity of farmers on technologies and methods of formulating feed rations using locally available materials Promote the establishment of edible oil agro processing industries Demand/price and VC analysis for processed animal feed to inform feed pricing policy making and VC efficiencies Animal Health interventions Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines production plant Establish a national bio safety guidelines for disease monitoring and controlling Strengthen the capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines and mass chicken vaccinations Rationalize public and private veterinary services Enforcing stricter disease controls on the importation of commercial replacement stock; Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation and housing Genetics and breeding interventions Identify and test suitable tropical dual purpose chicken crossbreeds to introduce in the family system Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous chicken breeds through selection Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the existing public chicken multiplication centers Establish 5 new private hatcheries and DOC multiplication centers with total capacities of producing 20 million 86 Investment interventions Activity sequencing 2017/1 8 2018/1 9 2019/2 0 2020/2 1 2021/22 DOCs/year Establish 50 private mothering units and distribution centers for selected 4 weeks vaccinated chicken Put in place guidelines to monitor importation of DOC and fertile eggs Establish standard operating procedures of hatcheries and chicken breeder farms. Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using artificial chicken brooding facilities and incubators Marketing and extensions interventions Establishment of private chicken slaughtering houses of a total annual capacity of slaughtering 10 million broilers along with modern chicken cutting and processing facilities and cold storage Establish 30 private municipal chicken slaughtering houses Establish one egg processing plant Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken traders associations; Build capacity and put in place strict biosafety systems and institutionalize mandatory biosafety and HACCP Promote consumption of exotic and hybrid chicken meat and egg in domestic households in Rwanda 87 Table 55: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs for RLI, the recommended investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget (million RWF) Budget Sources 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Feeds interventions Strengthen the existing feed processing plants through technology transfer, marketing extension to enable them operate at full capacity 1,000 1,000 2,000 10% public 90% private Establish 3 new chicken feed processing plants each with 40,000 MT capacity 1,500 2,500 2,000 5,000 100% private Improve and upgrade chicken feed quality control laboratories. 500 20% public 80% private Biosafety control (HACCP) and capacity building for Animal feed inspectors, and establishment of standard for chicken feed quality 1,000 1,000 2,000 50% public 50% private Setting a procedure to facilitate importation of additional raw materials such as maize to supply the feed processing industries 20 20 100% public Build capacity of farmers on technologies and methods of formulating feed rations using locally available materials 100 100 200 60% public 40% private Promote the establishment of edible oil agro processing industries 50 50 50% public 50% private 88 Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget (million RWF) Budget Sources 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Demand/price and VC analysis for processed animal feed to inform feed pricing policy making and VC efficiencies 90 90 100% public Total feed 4,260 4,600 1,000 0 0 9,860 Animal Health interventions Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines production plant 4,000 12,000 16,000 100% public Establish a national bio safety guidelines for disease monitoring and controlling 100 100 100% public Strengthen the capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines and mass chicken vaccinations 1,500 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 5,500 100% public Enforcing procedure and system for stricter disease controls on the importation of commercial replacement stock 500 500 1,000 100% public Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation and housing 100 100 100 100 100 500 60% public 40% private Total animal health 6,200 13,600 1,100 1,100 1,100 23,100 Genetics and breeding interventions Identify and test suitable tropical dual purpose chicken crossbreeds to introduce in the family system 500 500 1,000 60% public 40% private 89 Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget (million RWF) Budget Sources 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous chicken breeds through selection 250 500 250 1,000 60% public 40% private Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the existing public chicken multiplication center 1,000 500 1,500 15% public 85% private Establish 5 new private hatcheries and DOC multiplication centers with total capacities of producing 20 million DOCs/year 2,000 2,000 2,000 6,000 10% public 90% private Establish 30 mini hatcheries 900 450 450 1,800 100% private Establish 50 private mothering units and distribution centers for selected 4 weeks vaccinated chicken 220 660 220 1,100 100% private Put in place guidelines to monitor importation of DOC and fertile eggs 20 20 100% public Establish standard operating procedures of hatcheries and chicken breeder farms. 20 20 80% public 20% private Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using 5,000 artificial chicken brooding facilities and 3,000 artificial incubators/year 100 200 200 500 10% public 90% private Total genetics 5010 4810 3120 0 0 12940 90 Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 or million RWF) Total Budget (million RWF) Budget Sources 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Marketing and extensions interventions Establishment of 2 private chicken slaughtering houses of a total annual capacity of slaughtering 10 million broilers along with modern chicken cutting and processing facilities and cold storage 1,750 1,750 3500 100% private Establish 30 private mini chicken slaughtering houses 830 830 840 2.500 100% private Establish one egg processing plant 10,000 10,000 100% private Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken traders associations; 10 10 20 100% public Promote consumption of exotic and hybrid chicken meat and egg in domestic households in Rwanda 500 500 500 1,500 50% public 50% private Total marketing 3,090 1,340 3,090 0 10,000 17,520 Grand Total 18,560 24,350 8,310 1,100 11,100 63,420 91 The total investment required over the first five years to implement the proposed interventions adds up to RWF 63 billion or USD 61 million. As shown in the Table 55 above the sources of the investment include both the private and public sector. The private sector invests 57% of the total required and the public sector 43%. Except the health service the other investment categories are dominantly invested by the private sector (more than 84%).This shows that the transformation of the chicken industry in Rwanda needs to be mainly driven by private sector investment. Table 56:Total investment and recurrent costs for chicken meat and egg production VC development under RLI Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 RWF) Total investment cost (million RWF) Public Private Animal feeding 1,555 8,305 9,860 Animal health 22,900 200 23,100 Animal breeding and genetics 2,111 10,829 12,940 Marketing and value addition 770 16,750 17,520 Total investment 27,336 36,084 63,420 Table 57: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for improving the chicken meat and egg production VC under RLI Key investment area Proportion (%) by responsible actor Proportions of investment area Public Private Animal feeding 16% 84% 100% Animal health 99% 1% 100% Animal breeding and genetics 16% 84% 100% Marketing and value addition 4% 96% 100% Total investment 43% 57% 100% High production of chicken meat and eggs and value added to the national GDP is expected with the full implementation of the proposed RLI level of investment interventions. This is the recommended investment scenario in which sufficient resources are made available to transform the sector to achieve the national development objectives. Complimentary interventions and success requirements for Family (IFTC and CFC) and SP chicken systems  Feed is a critical factor to the success of the chicken industry. Hence, government should encourage the private sector to establish large-scale feed processing plants  Make land available for production of additional cereals for production of processed feed (maize and soybean) and facilitate importation to fill gaps  Facilitate construction of modern chicken slaughter and processing plants to process the huge increase in chicken meat production 92  Promote consumption of exotic chicken meat in domestic households and restaurants in Rwanda  Success in the specialized chicken (SP) and family crossbreed (CFC) systems depends on the effectiveness of the DOC production and distribution system. A well- functioning private and/or PPP DOC industry will be required for efficient production and distribution of DOCs to the specialized chicken farms and to small holders/enterprises which keep crossbreed family chicken.  Standardize feed testing labs to regulate feed quality (with periodic testing of processors compliance to set standards)  Standardize procedures for meat inspections at abattoirs, standardized mechanized slaughters, and processing facilities  Encourage private sector to invest in hatcheries and distribution of cross-bred DOCs and/or pullets,  A network which involves DOC multiplication centres, pullet out growers (mother units or hubs), individual smallholder farmers, women groups and cooperatives will be required to create a successful family chicken improvement scheme.  There is a need to put in place effective extension and animal health services (public or private) to meet the service needs (health, feed and management) of the coming millions of improved poultry family units. Medium Investment level scenario (MIL) The medium investment level scenario (MLI) assumes a budget constraint to investing fully (as in the recommended case -- RLI). Only half of the RLI is made under the MLI, and the impact on production and GDP is expected to be limited. However, the total production and GDP impact would remain higher than the BAU scenario, which represents the current spending profile. See Tables 58 and 59 below. Key outcome assumptions for the medium investment scenario (MLI) for the family and specialized chicken systems are based on the interventions from the recommended level of investment (RLI), but scaled down to the 3 year RLI outcomes.  The flock size in ITFC will increase from 1 to 3 improved hens  Reproductive wastage due to time spent in brooding will be reduced by 30%.  Eggs laid per hen/year will increase from 40 to 65 on average  Average weight of sold adult chicken increases from 1.4 kg to 1.55 kg.  Chicken mortality before marketing will drop from 50% to 30%.  The chickens will be supplemented with locally available feeds for up to 50% of their RLI requirements  With dual-purpose CFC the flock size is the minimum or 25 hens; with a production of 150 eggs/hen/year on average and weight at marketing of 2.5 kg  Adequate space for housing, better health services and feed supplementation is provided and delivered for dual purpose chicken  The major intervention proposed for the SP chicken layers and SP chicken broilers is increasing the number of birds and the number of specialized farm units under the 3rd year RLI scenario. 93 Key challenges and interventions under MLI Key challenges and interventions to achieve the targets under the MLI will remain the same as in the RLI for both family and specialized chicken systems Impacts under MLI scenario Tables 58 and 59 below illustrate the production and GDP impacts under the MLI case comparing the MLI results with the base year or 2016/17 impacts and the BAU case scenario for 2021/22. Table 58: Rwanda chicken meat production under BAU and MLI (2021/22) Livestock product 2016/17 (base year) 2021/22 BAU 2021/22 With MLI case % difference MLI/base year % difference MLI/BAU Chicken meat in MT 15,715 20,589 27,826 77% 35% Eggs in million 243.6 369.7 433.5 78% 17% Table 59: Rwanda chicken meat value added or GDP impacts under BAU and MLI (2021/22) Livestock GDP 2016/17 (base year) 2021/22 BAU 2021/22 With MLI case % difference MLI/base year % difference MLI/BAU Chicken meat in million RWF 20,430 27,278 31,284 53% 15% Eggs in million RWF 11,332 16,328 19,090 68% 17% Total 31,762 43,606 50,374 59% 16% As shown in Tables 58 and 59 above, the chicken meat and eggs production and the value added by the sub sector under the MLI scenario is substantial when compared to the base year 2016/17 situation. However, the chicken meat and eggs production shows an increase of 35 and 17% respectively compared to the BAU 2021/22 scenario. The total value added also increases by 16% compared to the BAU scenario. Although, there are some increases in production and value added, it is significantly far below what could be achieved under the recommended RLI scenario. The MLI impact on production and value added is not big enough to recommend MLI outright as the preferred investment. Hence, it requires further analysis to compute the Benefit-Cost ratio and the NPV to justify or reject the MLI scenario for chicken. 94 Table 60: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart for MLI scenario Investment interventions Activity sequencing 2017/1 8 2018/1 9 2019/2 0 2020/2 1 2021/22 Feeds interventions Strengthen the existing feed processing plants through technology transfer, marketing extension to enable them operate at full capacity Establish 1 new chicken and pig feed processing plants each with 40,000 MT capacity Improve the capacities of chicken feed quality and biosafety (HACCP) control laboratories. Build capacity for Animal feed inspectors Land allocation for production of maize and soya beans and other raw materials for supplying the feed processing plants Setting a procedure to facilitate importation additional raw materials in such as maize to supply the feed processing industries Build capacity of farmers on technologies and methods of formulating feed rations using locally available materials Promote the establishment of edible oil agro processing industries Demand/price and VC analysis for processed animal feed to inform feed pricing policy making and VC efficiencies Animal Health interventions Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines production plant Establish a national bio safety guidelines for disease monitoring and controlling Strengthen the capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines and mass chicken vaccinations Rationalize public and private veterinary services Enforcing stricter disease controls on the importation of commercial replacement 95 Investment interventions Activity sequencing 2017/1 8 2018/1 9 2019/2 0 2020/2 1 2021/22 stock; Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation and housing Genetics and breeding interventions Identify and test suitable tropical dual purpose chicken crossbreeds to introduce in the family system Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous chicken breeds through selection Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the existing public chicken multiplication centers Establish 3 new private hatcheries and DOC multiplication centers with total capacities of producing 20 million DOCs/year Establish 15 mini hatcheries and 25 private mothering units and distribution centers for selected 4 weeks vaccinated chicken Put in place guidelines to monitor importation of DOC and fertile eggs Establish standard operating procedures of hatcheries and chicken breeder farms. Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using artificial chicken brooding facilities and incubators Marketing and extensions interventions Establishment of 1 private chicken slaughtering house of a total annual capacity of slaughtering 10 million broilers along with modern chicken cutting and processing facilities and cold storage Establish 15 private municipal chicken slaughtering houses Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken traders associations; Build capacity and put in place strict biosafety systems and institutionalize 96 Investment interventions Activity sequencing 2017/1 8 2018/1 9 2019/2 0 2020/2 1 2021/22 mandatory biosafety and HACCP Promote consumption of exotic and hybrid chicken meat and egg in domestic households in Rwanda 97 Table 61: Five-year Chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs under medium investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 RWF) Total Budget Budget Sources 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Feeds interventions Strengthen the existing feed processing plants through technology transfer, marketing extension to enable them operate at full capacity 1,000 1,000 2,000 10% public 90% private Establish 1 new chicken feed processing plants each with 40,000 MT capacity 2,000 2,000 100% private Improve and upgrade chicken feed quality control laboratories. 250 250 20% public 80% private Biosafety control (HACCP) and capacity building for Animal feed inspectors, and establishment of standard for chicken feed quality 1,000 1,000 50% public 50% private Setting a procedure to facilitate importation of additional raw materials such as maize to supply the feed processing industries 20 20 100% public Build capacity of farmers on technologies and methods of formulating feed rations using locally available materials 100 100 60% public 40% private Promote the establishment of edible oil agro processing industries 50 50 50% public 50% private Demand/price and VC analysis for processed animal feed to inform feed pricing policy making and VC efficiencies 90 90 100% public Total feed 4,510 1,000 5,510 Animal Health interventions 98 Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 RWF) Total Budget Budget Sources 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Establish ND, FP, Gumboro vaccines production plant 4,000 4000 100% public Establish a national bio safety guidelines for disease monitoring and controlling 100 100 100% public Strengthen the capacity for disease surveillance, quarantines and mass chicken vaccinations 1,500 1,000 2,500 100% public Enforcing procedure and system for stricter disease controls on the importation of commercial replacement stock 500 500 100% public Awareness creation among small producers on sanitation and housing 100 100 100 300 60% public 40% private Total animal health 6,200 2,100 100 8,400 Genetics and breeding interventions Identify and test suitable tropical dual purpose chicken crossbreeds to introduce in the family system 500 500 60% public 40% private Improve the genetic potentials of indigenous chicken breeds through selection 500 500 60% public 40% private Privatize, strengthen and upgrade the existing public chicken multiplication center 1,000 1,000 15% public 85% private Establish 3 new private hatcheries and DOC multiplication centers with total capacities of producing 20 million DOCs/year 2,000 2000 4000 10% public 90% private Establish 15 mini hatcheries 900 900 100% private Establish 25 private mothering units and distribution centers for selected 4 weeks 220 330 550 100% private 99 Investment interventions Investment cost (000,000 RWF) Total Budget Budget Sources 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 vaccinated chicken Put in place guidelines to monitor importation of DOC and fertile eggs 20 20 100% public Establish standard operating procedures of hatcheries and chicken breeder farms. 20 20 80% public 20% private Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using 25000 artificial chicken brooding facilities and 1500 artificial incubators/year 100 150 250 10% public 90% private Total genetics 5,260 2480 0 0 0 7,740 Marketing and extensions interventions Establishment of 1 private chicken slaughtering houses of a total annual capacity of slaughtering 10 million broilers along with modern chicken cutting and processing facilities and cold storage 1,750 1750 100% private Establish 15 private mini chicken slaughtering houses 830 295 1125 100% private Establish one egg processing plant 100% private Promote establishment of Rwanda chicken traders associations; 10 10 20 100% public Promote consumption of exotic and hybrid chicken meat and egg in domestic households in Rwanda 500 250 750 50% public 50% private Total marketing 3,090 555 3,645 Total investment 19,060 3,135 100 25,295 100 As shown above in Table 61 above, in the MLI scenario the total investment will come down to RWF 25 billion or USD 30 million compared to RWF 51 billion or USD 61 million in the RLI scenario. Similar to the RLI, the sources of investment in the MLI case remain to be heavily private with a significant public contributions. Complimentary interventions and success requirements for the MLI scenario are the same as for the RLI scenario. Conclusions The chicken meat and egg production under the RLI scenario show substantial increments, 124% and 110% respectively compared to the base year. The RLI scenario would contribute significantly to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita egg consumption for Rwanda to help meet one of the Rwandan national development objectives of improving food and nutrition security. Under the RLI scenario, although the per capita egg consumption increases, a significant shortage continues to exist to meeting the FAO recommended requirement, which is 4.5 kg per person. It must also be noted that the technical interventions alone will not bring the projected output unless the policy and institutional challenges are addressed.  Needed policies and strategies – to be enacted and implemented  Livestock products pricing policy  Animal breeding strategy  Livestock identification & reporting system policy  Livestock animal and product traceability policy  Regulations and standards  Regulation of animal breeding  Regulation of animal nutrition; standards on animal commercial feeds, crops residues, formulation of the feeds, honey, etc  Regulation of livestock products pricing and standards on animal products grading (milk, meat, honey, eggs, wool, hides and skins)  Standards on livestock infrastructure development (slaughterhouses, laboratories, processing factories, etc.)  Standards on vet services and pharmaceuticals and supplies  Institutional framework  Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of institutions from national level to grassroots Under the MLI scenario, chicken meat and eggs is less by 21 and 16% respectively compared to the RLI. This would hinder the development effort of Rwanda to transform the sub sector, postpone the achievement of closing the production and consumption gap for all meat and postpone increasing the per capita egg consumption of Rwandans. 101 Table 62: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison Scenario Outcomes Investment Scenarios % difference MLI to RLI BAU RLI MLI Production 5th year Meat in MT 20,589 35,170 27,826 -21% Eggs in million number 369.7 513.1 433.5 -16% GDP 5th year 43,606 63,019 50,374 -20% The difference in the GDP contribution of the sub-sector between the BAU and MLI is only 16%. Moreover, compared to the RLI, the MLI shows a 20% drop in GDP contribution. It is recommended to do a financial feasibility of the MLI scenario before committing resources to this investment option. 102 Pork value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) 103 Pork value chain development roadmap (2017/18-2021/22) Vision The Rwanda pig industry becomes an efficiently functioning sub-sector with highly market oriented farming and processing and dynamic marketing, to supply consumers with high quality and safe pig meat/pork, while operating in more sustainable ways, and contributing towards closing the national gap in meat production and consumption, improving household food and nutritional security, achieving income growth and poverty alleviation and contributing to growth in national income. Investment scenarios analyzed Three scenarios corresponding to three levels of investment in the pig sub-sector are examined for their impacts on production of pork meat and contributions to GDP to provide three investment choices for decision makers in Rwanda: the government, private investors and development partners (donors). These three scenarios are referred as BAU (Business As Usual), MLI (Medium Level of Investment) and RLI (Recommended Level of Investment). The BAU scenario analyzes the base case or presents the implications of the current level of investment for pig meat production and GDP contributions during the 5-year LMP roadmap period. RLI is the level of investment which could achieve the 5-year targets for the agreed upon national development objectives. In the MLI scenario the assumed level of investment is that of the RLI through the 3rd year of the 5-year LMP period (see Table 63 below) and could achieve the 3rd year RLI impact on the targets for pork production and contribution to GDP. The MLI scenario is tested to provide investors with the choice of a medium level of investment given they face an assumed budget constraint. Overall Target under the recommended level of investment (RLI) scenario The overall target under RLI is to raise pig meat production from the current 19,945 tonnes in 2016/17 to 67,076 tonnes by 2021/22, an increase of 239% -- to be achieved through improving the family mixed pig system (IFP) and expanded commercial specialized piglet fattening (CSP). Modernizing the semi-intensive mixed family pig production system (IFP) Targets Table 63: Number of sows and tonnes of pork in improved family mixed (IFP) pig subsystems (RLI scenario) Pig system Unit 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % Change Semi intensive family mixed system (IFP) Number 252,960 278,256 306,081 336,689 370,358 407,394 61% Semi intensive family mixed system (IFP) Tonnes 19,869 21,260 22,749 24,342 26,047 27,871 40% 104 Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2017), Rwanda  Number of sows in family mixed (IFP) systems increases from 252,960 to 407,394, a 61% increase.  Pig meat production from the family mixed (IFP) systems increases from 19,869 tonnes to 27,871 tonnes a 40% increase. Key assumptions for improving the family pig sub-system under the RLI scenario  The number of sows per farm will increase from the current 1 to 6  Age at first service (in days) to decrease from 330 days to 250 days  Mortality rate of young animals before weaning to decrease from 13% to 10%  Mortality rate from weaning to marketing to decrease from 4% to 3%  Adult mortality rates to decrease from 3% to 2%  Cost of veterinary services to double  Percent of feed purchased to increase from the current 30% to 50% Table 64: Key Challenges and Interventions related to the recommended level of investment (RLI) to improve family pig system (IFP) Challenges Strategies to address the challenges Genetics  Lack of specialized commercial pig breeding farms to adequately supply well-bred high yielding pig stocks to pig farms  Establishing public and private sector specialized commercial pig breeding and multiplication farms with efficient distribution services  Low productivity of pigs in the family mixed system partly due to low genetic potential and inbreeding.  Importing new lines of improved high yielding pig breeds to avoid inbreeding and increase productivity  Extension and proper management and husbandry practices to lower the probability of inbreeding Animal Health  ASF is a permanent risk that could cause heavy mortality losses. FMD is also a serious health problem.  Strengthening surveillance, early detection/diagnosis  Pig Biosecurity policy guidelines for farmers (small and commercial), pig feed and meat processors  Support immunization measures FMD  Improving pig farm management practices to benefit producers.  Put in place an effective biosafety measures (HACCP)  Extensive pig farmers education on pig husbandry and health management Feeds challenges 105 Challenges Strategies to address the challenges  Lack of supply of commercial processed feeds and other feeds  Establishment of private feed mills and feed processing plants  Expand private cereals and legumes production to supply feed processing plants.  Conduct research on alternative pig feeds to reduce completion of cereals for human consumption.  Build capacities of farmers to prepare feed ration using locally available materials Marketing and Processing challenges  Weak pig marketing arrangements  Developing the pig value chain to improve pig marketing, trading capacity and smallholder pig production by constructing pig markets, slaughter facilities/abattoirs and fresh pork marketing outlets  Strengthening Swine Producer Associations to innovate and actively participate in the value chain lack of pig slaughter facilities/abattoirs, absence of cooling systems Policy challenges  Lack of official pig marketing, transporting policies  Ensure Policy guidelines/regulations to organize pig marketing/trading system developed  Lack of policy for pig holding and slaughtering facilities  Create enabling policy environments for establishment of rural small-scale and urban large-scale slaughter facilities  Develop policy guidelines, standard operating procedures (SOP) and awareness campaigns on slaughter facilities’ hygiene and food safety Interventions to achieve targets in IFP systems The family mixed system will be transformed with introduction of improved breeds, better animal health services and feeding. The semi intensive piglet fattening system is in its initial stage of development and will be scaled up by overcoming the breed, health, marketing and most importantly the feed problems. The genetic improvement involves import of adapted tropical and productive pig sows and boars for breeding and crossbredding and establishment of pig breeding and multiplication farms. The animal health intervention involves strengthening disease control, targeting the control and prevention of priority pig diseases (ASF, FMD)). Strengthening the biosecurity at farm level and at processing facilities is essential. The feed intervention involves strengthening capacity of private small-scale pig feed mills/processors with distribution networks to compound and distribute pig feeds to rural small-holder farmers and also strengthening the capacity of family pig keeping households to compound feed and supplement their herds with home formulated rations made from locally available feed materials. 106 Impacts under RLI scenario Production and GDP impacts (IFP) As a result of the additional recommended level of investment, the total pig meat production from the family system (IFP) increases from 19,869 to 27,871 tonnes, a 40% increase, the GDP contribution of IFP increases from RWF 21,026 million in 2016/17 to RWF 41,877 million in 2021/22 which constitutes an increase of 99%. Table 65: Pig meat production and GDP contribution family system (RLI) Family mixed pig system (IFP) 2016/17 2021/22 Change in % Total Pig meat from the IFP (tonnes) 19,869 27,871 40% GDP contribution by the IFP in RWF 21,026 41,877 99% Expanding Commercial Specialized Piglet fattening systems (CSP) RLI scenario In this operation piglets are fattened for the pork market. This system is in its infant stage. It is a newly introduced system which is expected to increase pig meat production greatly over time. Targets Table 66: Population growth of piglets fattening and meat production RLI Pig subsystem 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Piglet numbers 507 1,774 6,210 21,735 76,072 266,251 NA Piglet meat (tonnes) 76 265 928 3,249 11,373 39,805 NA Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2016), Rwanda  Number of fattened piglets in the commercial specialized pig fattening subsystem grows to 266,251.  Pig meat production from the commercial specialized pig fattening system reaches to 39,805 tonnes over 5 year period. Key assumption RLI  The number of pigs in the commercial specialized pig fattening system (CSP) will increase from about zero at the base year to about 266 thousand in year 5 and the number of piglet fattening farm units and piglet per unit farms will increase.  Health service and biosafety procedures will be established and fully functioning to control hazards and disease outbreaks such as ASF. Key Challenges and Strategies related to the commercial specialized pig (CSP) system under RLI  The key challenges and strategies related to commercial specialize pig (CSP) system is the same as for the family system (IFP) 107 Interventions to achieve targets in commercial specialized family pig (CSP) systems RLI The feed, health, genetics, marketing and policy interventions proposed for the family system also hold for the specialized piglet fattening system. Moreover, the total number of piglets and fattening units in the piglet fattening (CSP) system will be increased. A stricter biosafety system and HACCP will also be put in place along the value chain. Impacts under RLI Production impacts The meat production from the piglet fattening reaches to 39,805 tons over 5 year period. Piglet fattening is a newly tested pork production system that barely exist in Rwanda currently. Piglet fattening farmers will buy piglets either as weaners or growers and fatten them for the domestic as well as export pork market GDP impacts The GDP contribution of CSPS increases from the current RWF 46 million to 24,389 million in 5 year time. Total Pig Meat Production under RLI The total pig meat production from the family and specialized piglet fattening systems increases by 239% over the 5 year period (2017 – 2022). This would be attributed to good animal productivity and higher production and the increasing number of intensive smallholder, medium-to-large scale farmers. Table 67: Total pig meat production under RLI Products Pig meat 2016/17 (in tonnes) Pig meat 2021/22 (in tonnes) Change in % Total Pig meat from the Family mixed system 19,869 27,871 40% Total pig meat from Commercial specialized piglet fattening system 76 39,805 NA Total Pig meat production 19,945.00 67,676.00 239% Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2016), Rwanda. Total GDP contribution Overall the GDP contribution of the total pig meat production could increase from RWF 21 billion to 66 billion in the 5-year LMP period, an increase of 214% from the base year contribution. Table 68: Total GDP contribution Family (IFP) and Commercial/Specialized Pig (CSP) under RLI Products Pig meat GDP 2016/17 (RWF millions) Pig meat GDP 2021/22 (RWF millions) Change in % Family Pig meat contribution 21,026 41,877 99% Specialized pig meat contribution 46 24,389 NA Total meat contribution 21,072 66,266 214% Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2016) Rwanda 108 Per capita pig meat production under RLI As the result of the additional RLI investment in the sector, the per capita pig meat production in Rwanda would increase from the current 1.5 kg to 5 kg. This represents a significant accomplishment made possible by the transformation of the sector in the 5-year LMP period. Table 69: Activity Sequencing (Gantt chart) under RLI Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1.0 Animal Feeding 1.1 Establish private pig feed processing plant 1.2 Establishment of 10 private small-scale feed mills 1.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes production to supply feed processing plants 1.4 Research on alternative pig feeds in terms of nutritive values, and feed conversion impacts on weight gain and meat quality 1.5 Capacity building of family mixed pig farmers to formulate their own feed ration using locally available materials 2.0 Animal Health 2.1 Strengthen disease surveillance capacity 2.2 Strength vet labs in knowledge, technologies, methods and facilities to test for early diagnosis of key pig diseases especially ASF 2.3 Develop and strengthen capacity to control AFSV and transform the pig industry in the country 3.0 Animal Breeding and Genetics 3.1 Research on tropical adaptable productive pig sow and boar breeds 3.2 Facilitate to establish private and public pig breeder and multiplication farms 3.3 Establish Swine breeders Associations and build their capacity 4.0 Marketing and Value Additions 4.1 Establish new specialized piglet fattening farms 4.2 Build capacity of Meat Inspectors 4.3 Construct 30 pig marketing centers with slaughter facilities 4.4 Construct 2 mechanized pig slaughters, processing plant, with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to domestic and exports markets 4.5 Facilitate pig identification, registration and traceability 5.0 Policy 5.1 Develop official pig marketing, transporting policies and pig holding and slaughtering policy 109 Table 70: Five year pig/pork production improvement recommended level of investment costs scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) RLI Type of investment Investment cost (RWF, 000,000) TOTAL (RWF ,000,000) Budget Source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 1.0 Genetics 1.1 Establish 5 private pig breeding and multiplication farms 100 200 100 100 500 Public 15% PPP 85% 1.2 Establish 5 public pig breeding and multiplication farms 100 100 100 100 100 500 Public 100% Total genetics 200 300 200 200 100 1000 2.0 Animal feed 2.1 Establish private chicken and pig feed processing plant See chicken feed budget 2.2 Establishment of 10 private small-scale feed mills 375 375 750 Private 100% 2.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes production to supply feed processing plants See chicken feed budget 2.4 Research on alternative pig feeds in terms of nutritive values, and feed conversion impacts on weight gain and meat quality 200 200 400 20%private & 80% public Total animal feed 575 200 375 1150 3.0 Animal health See chicken AH budget Marketing 3.1 Pig identification, registration and traceability 500 500 1000 Public 80% Private 20% 3.2 Establish 2 large-scale specialized investors' pig farms 1,200 1,000 2200 Public 5% Private 95% 3.3 Establish 30 new commercial specialized pig farms for commercial pig production 500 1000 1000 500 3,000 Public 5% Private 95% 3.4 Construct 30 pig marketing centers with slaughter facilities 1000 1000 1000 3,000 Public 10% Private 90% 110 Type of investment Investment cost (RWF, 000,000) TOTAL (RWF ,000,000) Budget Source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 3.5 Construct mechanized pig slaughters, processing plant, with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to domestic and exports markets 500 1,500 2,000 Public 5% Private 95% TOTAL 4475 4500 3575 700 100 13,350 Pubic 18% Private 82% 111 The potential high production increase and value added in the pig sub sector will depend on realizing the recommended level of investment and building adequate human and institutional capacity and political will to facilitate the implementation of the proposed interventions to transform the sector. The total cost of this investment situation which is characterized as the recommended level of investment (RLI) scenario adds up to RWF 13.4 billion in which 84% comes from the private sector and the remaining 16% from public sources, including Development Partners (DPs) (Tables 71 and 72). Table 71:Total investment and recurrent costs for pig production VC development under RLI Investment category Responsible actor (000 000 RWF) Total investment cost (million RWF) Public Private Animal feeding 80 1070 1150 Animal breeding and genetics 575 425 1000 Marketing and value addition 1460 9740 11200 Total investment 2115 11235 13350 Table 72: The percent contribution of public and private investments by investment areas for improving the pig production VC under RLI Key investment area Proportion (%) by responsible actor Proportions of investment area Public Private Animal feeding 7% 93% 100% Animal breeding and genetics 58% 43% 100% Marketing and value addition 13% 87% 100% Total investment 16% 84% 100% Complimentary interventions and success requirements for Family (IFP) and CSP pig production under the RLI scenario Pig meat is the highest produced and consumed animal source food (ASF) in the world. It could play a major role in the future to help Rwanda meet the ASF requirements of its growing population. The following complimentary requirements, however, need to be met to ensure the effectiveness of the proposed LMP Pig roadmap interventions to help achieve sustainable transformation of the sub sector.  Supplementary feeding increased in the family mixed system and achieved through adequate production and supply of quality commercial feeds  Largescale private investment in massive cereal production under irrigation incentivized to ensure adequate feed input supply to more privately owned feed mills 112  More efficient and effective biosafety, animal health services and productivity enhancement breeding services targeting the family mixed system and specialized commercial CSP production units  Incentivizing the private sector to invest in large and medium scale specialized pig farming if they create demonstration effects and increase access to inputs for IFP farmers to modernize their pig operations  Incentivizing the private sector to invest in pig slaughter houses and pork product processing plants if they provide access to private extension training and inputs for smallholders -- especially more and better feed, vet services, and genetics  Strengthen pig producer and trader associations to assure better access to inputs and output markets Medium Level Investment (MLI) Scenario If only half of the investment funds which are required for RLI are invested in the Pig sub sector, then the investment impact on production and GDP is expected to be somewhat limited. This scenario is called the medium level investment or MLI (see section 1.2). In the MLI scenario analysis carried out to produce the LMP Pig roadmap, the MLI is simulated by assuming the level of investment of the RLI through the 3rd year of the 5-year LMP period and the impact is based on production and contribution to GDP that could be achieved with this level of investment. Table 73 below shows the expected impact on production and GDP contribution of the sector under the medium investment level (MLI) scenario, as in the case of the RLI scenario the MLI results are evaluated by making comparisons with the BAU investment scenario, but also with the RLI results. Under medium investment level scenario it is assumed that there will be a budget constraint to invest fully (as in the recommended case) and only half of the RLI would be made available to improve the sub sector. Key assumptions for improving the family pig sub-system (IFP) under the MLI scenario  Under the medium investment level (MLI) scenario it is assumed that there will be a budget constraint to invest fully (as in the recommended investment level scenario) and only half of the RLI would be made available to improve the sub sector.  The number of sows per farm will increase from the current 1 to 3  Age at first service (days) to decrease from 330 days to 250 days  Mortality rate of young animals before weaning to decrease from 13% to 10%  Mortality rate for weaning to marketing to decrease from 4 to 3%  Adult mortality rates to decrease from 3 to 2%  Cost of veterinary service to double Percent of feed purchased to increase from the current 30% in the semi-intensive family piggery to 40% 113 Key challenges and interventions under MLI  Key challenges and interventions are the same as in the RLI scenario Interventions to achieve targets under the MLI  Interventions to achieve targets under the MLI are the same as in the RLI for both family and specialized pig systems Impacts under the MLI scenario Table 73 below shows the impacts of the medium level investment (MLI) scenario on production and contribution to GDP. The MLI impact on production and GDP is much less than in the RLI scenario (see Tables 71, 72, 73 and 74). The total production and GDP impact would remain significantly higher than the baseline year, i.e., 2016/17. Nevertheless, it shows 70% increment in pig meat production and 76% increment in GDP compared to the BAU scenario, which represents the current spending level. Table 73: Rwanda total pig meat production and GDP contribution under BAU and MLI scenario (2021/22) Rwanda pig meat production and GDP Livestock product 2016/17 Baseline 2021/22 BAU 2021/22 With MLI % difference MLI/Baseline % difference MLI/BAU Pig meat in MT 19,945 26,665 45,461 128% 70% GDP from Pig meat in RWF (million) 21,072 28,184 49,659 136% 76% Table 74 below shows the time sequencing in the implementation of the different intervention activities under the MLI scenario. The major intervention activities, feed, genetics, health, marketing... remain the same, but there would be changes in magnitude and timing of implementation. Table 74: Activity sequencing Gantt chart under MLI Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1.0 Animal Feeding 1.1 Establish private pig & chicken feed processing plant 1.2 Establishment of 5 private small-scale feed mills 1.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes production to supply feed processing plants 1.4 Research on alternative pig feeds in terms of nutritive values, and feed conversion impacts on weight gain and 114 Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 meat quality 1.5 Capacity building of family mixed pig farmers to formulate their own feed ration using locally available materials 2.0 Animal Health 2.1 Strengthen disease surveillance capacity 2.2 Strength vet labs in knowledge, technologies, methods and facilities to test for early diagnosis of key pig diseases especially ASF 2.3 Develop and strengthen capacity to control AFSV and transform the pig industry in the country 3.0 Animal Breeding and Genetics 3.1 Research on tropical adaptable productive pig sow and boar breeds 3.2 Facilitate to establish private and public pig breeder and multiplication farms 3.3 Establish Swine breeders Associations and build their capacity 4.0 Marketing and Value Additions 4.1 Establish new specialized piglet fattening farms 4.2 Build capacity of Meat Inspectors 4.3 Construct 15 pig marketing centers with slaughter facilities 4.4 Construct 1 mechanized pig slaughters, processing plant, with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to domestic and exports markets 4.5 Facilitate pig identification, registration and traceability 5.0 Policy 5.1 Develop official pig marketing and transporting policies and pig holding and slaughtering policy 115 Table 75: Five year pig/pork production improvement investment costs under medium investment scenario (2017/18 – 2021/22) MLI Type of investment Investment cost (RWF, 000,000) TOTAL (RWF ,000,000) Budget Source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 1.0 Genetics 1.1 Establish 3 private pig breeding and multiplication farms 100 200 300 Public 15% Private 85% 1.2 Establish 2 public pig breeding and multiplication farms 100 100 200 Public 100% 200 300 500 2.0 Animal feed 2.1 Establish private chicken and pig feed processing plant See chicken feed budget 2.2 Establishment of 5 private small-scale feed mills 180 195 375 Private 100% 2.3 Expand private massive cereals and legumes production to supply feed processing plants See chicken feed budget 2.4 Research on alternative pig feeds 200 200 400 20% private & 80% public Total animal feed 380 395 775 3.0 Animal health See chicken health budget 4.0 Marketing 4.1 Pig identification, registration and traceability 500 500 Public 80% Private 20% 4.2 Establish 1 large-scale specialized investors' pig farms 1,200 1,200 Public 5% Private 95% 4.3 Establish 15 new commercial specialized pig farms for commercial pig production 500 1000 1,500 Public 5% Private 95% 4.4 Construct 15 pig marketing centres with slaughter facilities 1000 500 1,500 Public 10% Private 90% Total marketing 3,200 1,500 6,700 TOTAL investment 3,780 2,195 5,975 21% pubic 79% private 116 Table 75 above shows that the investment cost for the MLI scenario adds up to about RWF 6 billion which is slightly less than half of the investment recommended to achieve the development targets for the RLI scenario. In the MLI scenario 21% of the investment comes from the public and 79% from the private sector. In both the MLI and RLI scenarios the development of the sub sector would be driven by private investment. Table 76 below compares impacts of MLI and RLI on pig meat production and value added. Table 76: MLI and RLI production and GDP comparison 2021/22 Scenario Outcomes Investment Scenarios % difference MLI/RLI BAU Recommended Medium Production 5th year Pig Meat in MT 26,665 67,676 45,461 -33% GDP 5th year 28,184 66,266 49,659 -25% Under the MLI scenario pig meat production drops down to 33% of the RLI impact level and GDP would be 25% of the RLI impact level. This constitutes a big difference between the two scenarios. The MLI impacts on pig meat production and GDP contribution are only 70 and 76% greater, respectively, than the impacts under the BAU scenario. Complimentary interventions and success requirements for the medium investment scenario are the same as in the recommended investment (RLI) scenario Conclusions The pig meat production and GDP impacts under the RLI scenario show substantial increments, 239% and 214% respectively, compared to the base year. The RLI would contribute significantly to fulfilling the national all meat requirement and would increase per capita pig meat consumption for Rwanda enough that it would help to meet the Rwandan national development objective of improving food and nutrition security. It must also be noted that the technical interventions alone will not bring the projected output unless the policy and institutional challenges are addressed.  Needed policies and strategies – to be enacted and implemented  Livestock products pricing policy  Animal breeding strategy  Livestock identification & reporting system policy  Livestock animal and product traceability policy  Regulations and standards  Regulation of animal breeding  Regulation of animal nutrition; standards on animal commercial feeds, crops residues, formulation of the feeds, honey, etc 117  Regulation of livestock products pricing and standards on animal products grading (milk, meat, honey, eggs, wool, hides and skins)  Standards on livestock infrastructure development (slaughterhouses, laboratories, processing factories, etc.)  Standards on vet services and pharmaceuticals and supplies  Institutional framework  Strengthening the functional linkages and collaboration of institutions from national level to grassroots Under the MLI scenario, pig meat production and GDP contribution drop by 59 and 49% respectively compared to the RLI scenario. This shows the MLI would significantly slow down the efforts of Rwanda to modernize and transform the sub-sector and prevent Rwanda from closing the production and consumption gap for all meat during the 5-year period of the LMP. Compared to the BAU, the MLI impact on pig meat production and GDP contribution show declines to only 70 and 76% respectively, indicating the MLI would not be warranted before conducting a thorough financial feasibility analysis, to calculate the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and net present value (NPV). It is strongly recommended to do a financial feasibility analysis of the MLI scenario before committing the investment resources, no matter how great the budget constraint may be to committing to the RLI.