U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy

1. Diagram and map showing the magnitude and distribution of mineral resource production activities across the Nation. ...................................................................................2

2. Map showing areas of historical oil and gas exploration and production in the conterminous United States through 2006................................................................................3

3. Conceptual diagram that depicts a resource lifecycle for energy and minerals...............4

4. Geologic model output showing a south-to-north cross section at present day, and 300 million years ago, and a 3-D model of thermal maturation using Woodford Shale transformation ratio........................................................................................9

5. Isoresource map of Mahogany oil shale zone in Uinta and Piceance Basins showing oil yield in gallons per ton..........................................................................................11

6. Map showing the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and photographs showing nodules..........................................................................................................................................14

7. Photograph showing solar panels installed at the Denver Federal Center in Lakewood, Colorado...............................................................................................................16

8. Matrix showing where the U.S. Geological Survey provides assessment and information for energy resources, and mineral resources by geographic region and resource category. .................................................................................................19 vii

9. Map showing the extent of the Marcellus assessment units within the Appalachian Basin geologic province.....................................................................................20

10. Photographs of the Lemhi Pass thorium district in Idaho and Montana. ..........................22

11. Photograph showing the Kanab North Mine, one of several breccia-pipe uranium mines in northern Arizona..........................................................................................25

12. Conceptual diagram for an integrated assessment..............................................................25

13. Screen capture showing the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative integrated assessment Web interface. ...................................................................................26

14. Map showing the locations of mines and mineral facilities in Japan................................29

15. Diagrams showing materials flow models..............................................................................30 Tables

1. Summary of goals and actions for the U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals science strategy. ..........................................................................................................5

2. Principal mandates and authorizations related to U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals activities and their intersection with each of the five goals in the energy and minerals science strategy. ...............................................................7

3. U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals science strategy actions and intersections with other mission areas. ..................................................................................32 Highlights The Advantages of Three-Dimensional Models and Visualization....................................... 9 Oil Shale: Evaluating an Energy Resource and Its Extractive Effects. ............................... 11 Minerals in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone...................................................................... 14 Renewable Energy and Nonrenewable Mineral Resources. .............................................. 16 Thorium: Why and Where?........................................................................................................ 22 Uranium in the Grand Canyon: A Case Study in Integrated Research and Assessment..................................................................................................................... 25 Integrated Assessment for Southwestern Wyoming. ........................................................... 26 USGS Scientific Contributions to Disaster Response Following the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. ............................................................................................. 29 Materials Flow Analysis: Illustrating Global Commodity Supply Vulnerabilities. ............. 30 viii Conversion Factors Inch/Pound to SI Multiply By To obtain Length inch (in.) 2.54 centimeter (cm) foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m) mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km) mile, nautical (nmi) 1.852 kilometer (km) Area acre 4,047 square meter (m2) acre 0.4047 hectare (ha) acre 0.004047 square kilometer (km2) square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2) Volume barrel (bbl), (petroleum, 1 barrel=42 gal) 0.1590 cubic meter (m3) gallon (gal) 3.785 liter (L) gallon (gal) 0.003785 cubic meter (m3) cubic foot (ft3) 0.02832 cubic meter (m3) Mass pound, avoirdupois (lb) 0.4536 kilogram (kg) ton, short (2,000 lb) 0.9072 metric ton (t) ton, long (2,240 lb) 1.016 metric ton (t) Temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (°F) as follows: °F=(1.8×°C)+32 Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (°C) as follows: °C=(°F-32)/1.8 ix Abbreviations 3D three-dimensional 4D four-dimensional AU assessment unit BLM Bureau of Land Management BOEM Bureau of Ocean Energy Management CO2 carbon dioxide DOE Department of Energy DOI Department of the Interior ECS extended continental shelf EEZ exclusive economic zone EIA Energy Information Administration EPA Environmental Protection Agency Ma millions of years ago MOU memorandum of understanding MRDS Mineral Resources Data System Mt million metric tons NMIC National Minerals Information Center PGM platinum-group metal PL Public Law REE rare earth element SI Système International d’Unités (International System of Units) SSPT Science Strategy Planning Team UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea USC U.S. Code USGS U.S. Geological Survey WLCI Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative WTC World Trade Center Red Cone mountain in the upper portion of Handcart Gulch, Colorado, site of a multidisciplinary study of a natural acid-rock-drainage system in an unmined setting. The red staining is from the oxidation of pyrite. Photograph by Jonathan Caine, USGS. U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy—A Resource Lifecycle Approach By Richard C. Ferrero, Jonathan J. Kolak, Donald J. Bills, Zachary H. Bowen, Daniel J. Cordier, Tanya J. Gallegos, James R. Hein, Karen D. Kelley, Philip H. Nelson, Vito F. Nuccio, Jeanine M. Schmidt, and Robert R. Seal Executive Summary The economy, national security, and standard of living • Goal 1.—Understand fundamental Earth processes that of the United States depend heavily on adequate and reliable form energy and mineral resources supplies of energy and mineral resources. Based on popula- • Goal 2.—Understand the environmental behavior of tion and consumption trends, the Nation’s use of energy and energy and mineral resources and their waste products minerals can be expected to grow, driving the demand for ever broader scientific understanding of resource formation, loca- • Goal 3.—Provide inventories and assessments of tion, and availability. In addition, the increasing importance energy and mineral resources of environmental stewardship, human health, and sustain- • Goal 4.—Understand the effects of energy and mineral able growth places further emphasis on energy and mineral development on natural resources and society resources research and understanding. Collectively, these trends in resource demand and the interconnectedness among • Goal 5.—Understand the reliability and availability of energy and mineral supplies resources will lead to new challenges and, in turn, require cut- ting-edge science for the next generation of societal decisions. Within each goal, multiple actions are identified. The The long and continuing history of U.S. Geological level of specificity and complexity of these actions varies, Survey contributions to energy and mineral resources sci- consistent with the reality that even a modest refocus can yield large payoffs in the near term whereas more ambitious plans ence provide a solid foundation of core capabilities upon may take years to reach fruition. As such, implementation of which new research directions can grow. This science strategy these actions is largely dependent on available resources and provides a framework for the coming decade that capitalizes the sequencing of prerequisite steps. This science strategy on the growth of core capabilities and leverages their applica- places an emphasis on interdisciplinary collaboration and tion toward new or emerging challenges in energy and mineral leveraging of expertise across the U.S. Geological Survey and resources research, as reflected in five interrelated goals. with external partners. Twin Groves wind farm in McLean County, Illinois. Photograph by Guenter Conzelmann, Argonne National Laboratories. 2   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Introduction Energy and mineral resources are essential to society. directions; the actions represent specific research thrusts to The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as the Nation’s principal advance these goals. Collectively, the understanding gained natural science bureau, advances the science of energy and from these actions provides information for decisionmaking mineral resources and provides statistical information and with respect to such issues as economic vitality, environmental analysis on the global flow of minerals and mineral materials. health, national security, and responsible resource manage- The Organic Act of 1879 defines the role of the USGS as ment and protection on U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) “… the classification of the public lands and examination of and other lands. the geological structure, mineral resources, and products of the The United States uses substantial amounts of energy and national domain.” Understanding the science, quality, quan- mineral resources each year. In 2011, industries that consumed tity, and spatial distribution of energy and mineral resources processed mineral materials added about $2,230 billion, or has been a core function of the USGS since its inception. The approximately 15 percent, to the U.S. gross domestic product USGS is recognized by industry, nongovernmental organi- (fig. 1A), and the Nation’s mines and quarries produced raw zations, and international, Federal, State, tribal, and local materials with a total estimated value of $74 billion, with pro- governments for its reliable, high-quality energy and minerals duction varying by state (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012, p. 5; science, information, fundamental research, and expertise. fig. 1B). Domestic energy resource production activities also This science strategy, intended to reach multiple audi- take place throughout the Nation (such as oil and gas produc- ences, describes the USGS role and suggests actions that tion, fig. 2; from Biewick, 2008). In 2011, the United States can be taken in the next 10 years to provide the Nation with consumed approximately 7 billion barrels of oil, 24 trillion high-impact energy and minerals science and information on cubic feet of natural gas, and 1 billion short tons of coal recognized and emerging issues. The goals represent broad (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2012). To meet A. Total gross domestic product in the B. Value of nonfuel mineral production in the United States in 2011 (preliminary) United States in 2011, $15,100 billion 15% Approximate value added by major industries that consume processed mineral materials EXPLANATION Mineral production value, in billion dollars >5.0 0.5–0.9 2.5–5.0 <0.5 1.0–2.4 Figure 1. Diagram and map showing the magnitude and distribution of mineral resource production activities across the Nation. A, Pie chart depicting the estimated value added to the U.S. gross domestic product by major industries that consume processed mineral materials; major consuming industries of processed mineral materials are construction, durable goods manufacturers, and some nondurable goods manufacturers. B, Map showing the [preliminary] value of nonfuel mineral production (raw materials from mining) in the United States in 2011. Introduction  3 these needs, energy and mineral production (extraction) occurs An additional challenge facing the Nation is the need to in every State, with substantial amounts also imported from balance the reliability and availability of energy and mineral other countries. supplies with other considerations including the availability The United States faces challenges in meeting its current of other natural resources; the viability of energy and mineral (2013) and future energy and minerals needs. These challenges development amidst changes in climate, natural hazards, and range in scale from global competition for resources to local demand; and the need to prevent or mitigate environmental decisionmaking about the appropriate use of individual land degradation (Gundersen and others, 2011). This challenge is parcels. Decisions on every scale may affect the availability of especially noteworthy given the long-term nature of resource energy and minerals and have far-reaching economic, geopo- development and associated infrastructure and the comparable litical, and social consequences. For example, the increasing or longer recovery times stemming from any adverse effects. demand for both traditional and emerging energy and mineral The concept of sustainability, defined as “development that resources is driving exploration and production into geological meets the needs of the present without compromising the settings for which there may be little data available, such as ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (United in the Arctic, deeper in the Earth’s crust, and beneath deeper Nations World Commission on Environment and Develop- regions of the oceans. Activities in these locations may pose ment, 1987, p. 54), underpins many land use and environmen- considerable technical and engineering challenges or be co- tal policies that address this challenge. From the perspective located with sensitive environments or other natural resources of nonrenewable energy and mineral resources, sustainability of importance. focuses on stewardship of lands, protection of the environ- At the same time, consideration of alternative sources of ment, and identification of alternative sources. energy and minerals is increasing, which may involve min- To provide society with the knowledge needed to address ing of deposits of lower concentration, recovering resources these challenges, there is growing recognition that it is incum- from waste and recycling streams, and sourcing from countries bent on “earth scientists to redirect their scientific research, to with different political systems or environmental stewardship assemble data that are usable in policy analysis and decision- practices. The USGS serves the national interest by providing making, and ultimately transmit their findings more clearly impartial information across this range of scales and about to policymakers and the public” (National Research Council, alternatives, thereby enabling decisionmakers and society at 1996, p. 5). The USGS leads research and monitoring studies large to make informed decisions and better understand the to address these challenges and provide a scientific founda- potential outcomes of those decisions. tion for decisionmaking with respect to sustainable resource EXPLANATION Oil Gas Oil and gas Dry or unknown Figure 2. Areas of historical oil and gas exploration and production in the conterminous United States through 2006. 4   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy use, protection, and adaptive management. In this strategy, we The overarching concept for these goals is a resource identified a set of overarching questions that drive the science lifecycle for energy and minerals (fig. 3), which traces the flow needed to address energy and mineral resources use issues of these resources from generation and occurrence through during the coming decade. All parts of this science strategy are interaction with society and the environment to ultimate dispo- designed to reflect one or more of these challenges: sition and disposal. • How or where might energy and mineral commodities Each goal addresses one or more stages of the resource be obtained to meet present and future needs? lifecycle. Through targeted research, the first two goals expand basic knowledge of the formation of energy and mineral • What economic, environmental, geopolitical, and deposits and their interaction with the atmosphere, biosphere, health consequences must also be considered in both and hydrosphere. The next two goals build on this research the short term and the long term? foundation and develop additional science and information products. The final goal extends beyond identified concerns • How can decisions more effectively incorporate scien- to focus and deliver science on emerging issues and unantici- tific complexity and uncertainty? pated events affecting energy and mineral supplies. • What science is needed to anticipate and respond to Together, these goals form a dynamic science strategy for future events? advancing USGS science to a new level of understanding and effectiveness in the next 10 years (table 1). Each goal presents Using these questions as a guide, five interdependent several specific “actions,” intended to fill the highest priority goals were constructed that collectively provide the needed needs and address key gaps in data and understanding. Actions scientific research, information, and analysis: range from those that incrementally build on existing USGS • Goal 1.—Understand fundamental Earth processes that capabilities and core strengths to new, ambitious efforts. In form energy and mineral resources most cases, successful achievement of these actions cannot be accomplished solely within the energy and minerals mission • Goal 2.—Understand the environmental behavior of area but rather depends on collaboration and leveraging of energy and mineral resources and their waste products expertise and capabilities across the USGS and among stake- • Goal 3.—Provide inventories and assessments of holders and partners. energy and mineral resources • Goal 4.—Understand the effects of energy and mineral development on natural resources and society • Goal 5.—Understand the reliability and availability of energy and mineral supplies Geologic setting and source Reclamation, recycling and disposal Exploration Use Extraction Figure 3. A resource lifecycle for energy and minerals. Society faces key decisions within each stage of the resource lifecycle. Scientific understanding is an essential input to these Processing decisions. Introduction  5 Table 1. Summary of goals and actions for the U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals science strategy. Focus area Actions Goal 1: Understand fundamental Earth processes that form energy and mineral resources 1–1 Geologic and tectonic framework studies 1–1a; 1–1b; 1–1c 1–2 Evolution of energy and mineral systems 1–2a; 1–2b; 1–2c; 1–2d 1–3 Frontier studies 1–3a; 1–3b; 1–3c Goal 2: Understand the environmental behavior of energy and mineral resources and their waste products 2–1 Fundamental studies 2–1a; 2–1b; 2–1c 2–2 Applied investigations 2–2a; 2–2b; 2–2c; 2–2d 2–3 Synthesis activities 2–3a; 2–3b Goal 3: Provide inventories and assessments of energy and mineral resources 3–1 Undiscovered geologically based energy resources 3-1a; 3-1b; 3-1c; 3-1d 3–2 Discovered nonfuel mineral resources 3–2a; 3–2b; 3-2c; 3-2d; 3-2e 3–3 Undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources 3–3a; 3–3b Goal 4: Understand the effects of energy and mineral development on natural resources and society 4–1 Spatial analysis of energy and mineral resources occurrence and development 4–1a; 4-1b; 4-1c 4–2 Exploration of interdisciplinary approaches 4–2a; 4–2b; 4-2c; 4-2d; 4-2e Goal 5: Understand the reliability and availability of energy and mineral supplies 5–1 Sudden disruptions affect supplies 5–1a; 5–1b 5–2 Evolving issues affect long-term availability 5–2a; 5–2b; 5-2c; 5-2d USGS scientist takes an oriented sample of folded, crenulated, and metamorphosed banded siltite, exposed in the Blacktail pit of the Blackbird cobalt-copper mine, in the Salmon River Mountains of east-central Idaho. Photograph by Art Bookstrom, USGS. 6   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Core Strengths The USGS is able to provide essential science products minerals research and analysis throughout the energy and min- that complement the missions of other Federal and State agen- erals resource lifecycle, in areas such as the following: igneous cies and others. The USGS performs research ranging from and metamorphic petrology, isotopic and organic geochemis- microscopic to global scales and collects and maintains long- try, marine and economic geology, mineralogy, mineral com- term monitoring data that enable study of how systems change modity analysis and materials flow studies, sedimentology, through time as well as facilitate construction of predictive sequence stratigraphy, and tectonics and structural geology. models. Having an impartial, global perspective, the USGS Collectively, this research is applied to the understanding and can work across agency and jurisdictional boundaries to col- assessment of fossil fuels and selected nonhydrocarbon energy lect and interpret disparate information. sources and mineral deposits. Specific examples of energy USGS scientists working on energy and minerals, collec- and minerals research include development of new assess- tively, have broad experience in energy and minerals research, ment methodologies; laboratory capabilities for geochemical resource assessment, environmental characterization, data col- and mineralogical analyses; geophysical data acquisition and lection, and analysis. A wide variety of customers and stake- interpretation; minerals information collection, synthesis, and holders, each with unique demands for information—from the delivery, including development and maintenance of online Secretary of the Interior requesting scientific evaluation for databases; and dissemination, education, and outreach. In decision support on uranium mining issues to resource evalu- addition, working across the USGS, scientists lead research ations for Congress, Federal agencies, and others—all rely on on the potential environmental and human health effects of the vast breadth and quality of information USGS scientists energy and mineral use. With this solid foundation in basic provide, underscoring the importance of maintaining a robust research and a recognized flexibility to apply scientific under- foundation of scientific expertise. standing to contemporary issues, the USGS is well positioned Geologists, geophysicists, geochemists, physical scien- to continue providing cutting-edge science on current (2013) tists, and economists at science centers are leading energy and and future energy and mineral resources issues. Mandates and Authorizations The USGS was established on March 3, 1879, under of energy and mineral resources relative to global and domes- the Organic Act of March 3, 1879 (43 U.S.C. §31), for tic supplies and thus contribute to national security and eco- “classification of the public lands, and examination of the nomic growth (National Research Council, 2012). geological structure, mineral resources, and products of the The USGS is responsive to numerous congressional man- national domain.” This legislation stemmed from a report of dates and authorizations and presidential actions pertaining to the National Academy of Sciences, which had been tasked energy and mineral resources (table 2). Many of these man- by Congress in June 1878 to provide a plan to secure the dates and authorizations recognize, support, and encourage most cost-efficient surveying of the territories of the United research and assessments developed by the USGS and around States. The USGS component stemmed from the need to which the USGS workforce is formed. For example, the survey the mineral and water resources of the United States Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (P.L.110-140) (National Academy of Sciences, 1913). The USGS responsi- authorized the USGS to lead storage capacity assessments of bility and core capabilities for energy and minerals research carbon dioxide (CO2) for the purposes of evaluating geologic and information have evolved considerably since the original sequestration potential. This authorization is a recognition of legislation as the Nation’s information and resource needs USGS experience in conducting oil and gas resource assess- have increased. Further, with globalization and international ments and established expertise in Earth sciences, methodolo- demand for energy and minerals, the USGS also works outside gies, and unbiased assessments. the borders of the United States to enhance the understanding Mandates and Authorizations   7 Table 2. Principal mandates and authorizations related to U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals activities and their intersection with each of the five goals in the energy and minerals science strategy. [U.S.C., U.S. Code; P.L., Public Law] Legislation or presidential action providing authority Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal 5 Organic Act of 1879 (43 U.S.C. §31) * * * * * Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act of 1946 (50 U.S.C. §98) † † † Transfer of functions from Secretary of Interior to Secretary of Agriculture, 1960 † † (7 U.S.C. §2201; P.L.86-509) Wilderness Act of 1964 (16 U.S.C. 23; P.L.88-577) * * National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (43 U.S.C. 55; P.L.91-190) ** ** ** ** Mining and Minerals Policy Act of 1970 (30 U.S.C. §21a; P.L.91-631) † † † Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (16 U.S.C. 36; ** ** P.L.93-378) Geothermal Energy Research, Development, and Demonstration Act of 1974 * * (30 U.S.C. 24; P.L.93-410) Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act of 1976 (P.L.94-377) * * Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (43 U.S.C. 35; P.L.94-579) * * National Materials and Minerals Policy, Research, and Development Act of 1980 * * * * * (30 U.S.C. 28; P.L.96-479) Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act of 1980 (16 U.S.C. 51; P.L.96-487) * * Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act of 1980 (30 U.S.C. 26; P.L.96-283) ** ** Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (P.L.97-425) ‡ ‡ Geothermal Steam Act Amendments of 1988 (P.L.100-443) * * Executive Order 12656—Assignment of Emergency Preparedness Responsibilities † Energy Policy Act of 1992 (P.L.102-486) * The Balanced Budget Downpayment Act, I - 1996 (P.L.104-99 §123) * * * [Transfer of functions from U.S. Bureau of Mines] Energy Policy and Conservation Act Amendments of 2000 (P.L.106-469 §104) * * Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000 (P.L.106-193) * Energy Policy Act of 2005 (P.L.109-58) * * * Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (P.L.110-140) * * Executive Order 13603—National Defense Resources Preparedness † Executive Order 13605—Supporting Safe and Responsible Development of † † † Unconventional Domestic Natural Gas Resources *Specifically mentions the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) or the U.S. Bureau of Mines, whose functions were partially transferred to the USGS in 1996. **Does not specifically mention the USGS; responsibility for tasks is derived from the Organic Act of March 3, 1879. †Authority is to Secretary of the Interior, not specifically to the USGS. ‡The USGS is to be consulted by the U.S. Department of Energy. 8   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science Goal 1: Understand Fundamental Earth improvements of the past 30 years. Existing national gravity and magnetic datasets are composites of surveys acquired over Processes that Form Energy and Mineral many years at different scales of spatial coverage with conse- Resources quent gaps in coverage. Typically, new data are acquired by topical studies with- Introduction out a plan of systematic acquisition. Although the main barrier From the Earth’s crust, energy and mineral resources are to acquisition is cost (seismic data are usually purchased from extracted for use in our daily lives and to support our economy vendors; augmentation of magnetic and gravity data requires and national security. Comprehensive studies of the Earth’s new surveys), other avenues could be pursued to acquire data. fundamental processes are necessary to understand the forma- Having access to a suite of deep-penetrating, crustal-scale tion and distribution of energy and mineral resources from the geophysical data would improve views of the subsurface, surface of the Earth to depths of many kilometers. To achieve and research based on these data will better reflect the “state- this understanding, future research efforts under goal 1 are of-the-art” technologies. Merging this new information with grouped into three areas: stratigraphic, structural, and other geophysical studies would support more accurate basin histories and provide better • geologic and tectonic framework studies understanding of the formation of energy and mineral deposits. • the evolution of energy and mineral systems The high data densities produced by studies on selected areas require new means of integrating multidisciplinary • new research in frontier areas datasets. Interpretations of different datasets from separate The following sections present key scientific questions analyses can produce incompatible results when viewed for each of these three areas and strategic actions to address together. Thus, the attainment of consistent geological results these questions. These targeted research actions, which benefits from mutual usage of a shared interpretive platform. illuminate the conditions under which reservoirs and deposits Collaborative work is done more easily when viewed on form and where they occur, also lead to clearer identifica- interactive three-dimensional (3D) systems that provide the tion of those aspects of formation and accumulation that may ability to slice and section 3D models at varying elevations cause problems when exposed at the surface of the Earth or and azimuths, complementing and gradually superseding the extracted from the Earth (goal 2) and allow clearer delineation traditional presentations of selected map and cross sections of the amount, location, and character of resources potentially (see Highlight, p. 9). Incorporating a wide range of subsurface available (goal 3). information, 3D models facilitate improved understanding of geologic processes. Such software systems will continue to evolve and provide improved capability for multidisciplinary 1–1. Geologic and Tectonic Framework Studies collaboration. Regional-scale geologic studies integrate tectonic and thermal evolution of basement and basin terranes, occurrence Major Questions and flow of subsurface fluids, and fluid-rock interactions. • How does the thermal, magmatic, tectonic, and fluid- Regional-scale geologic studies provide the geologic frame- flow history of the Earth lead to the formation and later work that will improve understanding of the formation of oil modification of energy and mineral deposits? and gas accumulations and mineral deposits at smaller spatial scales. Outcomes from these studies provide the scientific • What enhancements to geophysical and geochemical basis and guidelines for energy and mineral resources mapping data are required to support crustal- and deposit-scale and assessments (goal 3). The research activities on geologic geological interpretations? processes expressed here and the assessment research activi- ties considered in goal 3 are strongly interrelated because the • How can multidisciplinary studies of a region or ter- outcomes of geologic research may alter assessment method- rane consistently be interpreted and presented to users? ology, and questions uncovered during assessment work may spawn new geologic research activities. Strategic Actions Regional-scale geologic framework studies at the USGS have been limited by incomplete spatial coverage of seismic • Action 1–1a.—Map regional-scale geologic features reflection, gravity, and magnetic data, which provide images of that control the timing and location of energy and the subsurface and are a prerequisite to conducting structural mineral resources. Identify key areas for regional-scale analyses at the regional scale. With a few important excep- structural and geologic mapping and use geophysical, tions, the seismic reflection data that the USGS has acquired geochemical, and isotopic studies to determine areas are sparse and outdated and do not reflect the technological with resource potential. This action will result in Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   9 The Advantages of Three-Dimensional Models and Visualization Traditional USGS geoscience products have been generated and distributed primarily through the medium of two- dimensional reports, maps, and cross-sections, limiting the ability to characterize and understand three-dimensional (3D) systems and how they change through time (4D). And yet, the intrinsic 3D and 4D nature of the interpreted results increases the need for the USGS to generate and distribute scientific information using 3D and 4D visualization frame- works. In addition, Web-based delivery in 3D and 4D frameworks could open a new era in USGS publications. Today, USGS scientists use 3D and 4D tools to visualize and interpret geologic information and to check the data, interpre- tations, and models (Jacobsen and others, 2011). The use of 3D and 4D visualization can be a powerful quality control tool in the analysis of large, multidimensional datasets. Examples of geologic mapping in 3D include aquifer characterization, the interpretation of geophysical data with geological constraints, subsurface characterization of mineral systems, and oil and gas investigations. For example, a 3D geologic model served as input to a 4D computation of heating and oil generation during subsidence of the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma (fig. 4; Higley, 2008). The Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma is the source of much of the oil and gas in the basin. The transformation of kerogen, a fossilized form of organic matter, to oil was computed as a function of geologic time and displayed on cross sections [at 300 million years ago (Ma) and 0 Ma]. Other useful displays (not depicted in figure 4) reveal the migration of oil and gas at different geologic times from the deep basin to reservoirs on the flanks of the basin. S Distance, in kilometers N A 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2,000 OK KS A Present A’ Highlight 0 -2,000 A 300 million years ago A’ OK KS 0 B Elevation, in meters -4,000 C -6,000 CO TX OK KS -8,000 A’ -10,000 EXPLANATION A Transformation ratio, in percent 0.1–0.9 50–74 -12,000 1–9 75–94 -10,000 10–24 95–98 25–49 99–100 -14,000 Figure 4. Geologic model output showing a south-to-north cross section (A–A′) at A, present day, and B, inset, 300 million years ago, and C, inset, a 3-D model of thermal maturation using Woodford Shale transformation ratio. Yellow and pink dots are approximate locations of the Woodford Shale and Thirteen Finger limestone. Elevation is relative to sea level, and vertical and lateral scales are equivalent for the cross sections. The black line in the 3D model shows the location of the cross-section A–A′. Map image is transformation ratio on the Woodford Shale layer at present day and at 10 times vertical exaggeration. 10   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy improved geologic models, maps, and cross sec- accumulation where metals are concentrated to an extent that tions, revealing those areas where energy and mineral allows economically viable extraction. However, mineral resources are most likely to be found in the United systems are found in a wider range of rock types and structural States. settings than petroleum systems. Mineral systems must be understood in their broadest possible context to support accu- • Action 1–1b.—Acquire geophysical datasets at the rate resource assessments on regional, national, and global regional scale. Such an effort would require a system- scales. For example, understanding the role of magmatic arcs atic, multiyear program to facilitate the acquisition of in the geologic evolution of North America is critical for seismic data in sedimentary basins and upgrade the understanding the genesis and localization of hydrothermal existing national magnetic and gravity datasets. and epithermal mineral deposits. Such focus on the evolution • Action 1–1c.—Apply 3D models to areas of high of geologic entities and mineral systems on a geologic-sys- potential for energy and mineral resources, incorporat- tem-scale will lead to more effective ore deposit models and ing geologic mapping, thermotectonic, fluid-flow, and resource assessments. geophysical interpretations. Such models will ensure The state of knowledge varies considerably among compatibility of data and interpretations from multiple deposit types; some deposit types that are becoming important disciplines and broaden the user base because geologi- owing to emerging national demand, such as platinum group cal and geophysical interpretations may become more metals (PGMs), rare earth elements (REEs), and lithium, are readily available in a user-friendly format. not well understood, and focused research would benefit from deposit-scale studies. Other mineral systems, such as por- phyry copper deposits, are well understood in terms of their 1–2. Evolution of Energy and Mineral Systems origin and evolution. Future research on these systems would benefit from a broader approach, such as understanding the An exploitable petroleum (oil, natural gas, and natural distribution and geologic evolution of magmatic arcs in which gas liquids) system encompasses the source rock, the rocks porphyry deposits form. adjacent to source rocks, migration pathways, and reservoirs. Source rocks that are the locus of petroleum generation may also contain developable resources, such as shale gas and shale Major Questions oil. Rocks adjacent to source rocks (such as those in tight gas • What are the most important factors affecting the systems), formerly not developed, are now routinely exploited development of self-sourced and low-permeability in the conterminous United States. Thus, source rocks and (tight) petroleum systems, and how can this knowledge tight rocks are two types of continuous petroleum systems be applied to ongoing energy assessment needs? supplying a rapidly expanding fraction of hydrocarbons, especially gas. Fluid migration pathways and charge mecha- • What areas of research will advance our understand- nisms in these geologic settings continue to be elusive, poorly ing of emerging and high-priority mineral and energy understood, and minimally studied. Despite advancements sources? in seismic and well-logging technologies, the productivity of continuous petroleum systems is not readily predictable and • What are the primary controls on the timing and loca- often must be determined empirically. tion of ore deposits, and in particular what are the Energy resources contributing to the U.S. energy mix in factors that lead to formation of deposits of scarce 2013 (for example, oil, gas, coal, coalbed methane) are fairly commodities? well understood in terms of their geologic formation and occurrence. For these resources, we identify research priorities Strategic Actions pertaining to environmental effects (goal 2) and assessments (goal 3). Other resources, such as oil shale, gas hydrates (also • Action 1–2a.—Investigate the geologic and geochemi- referred to as methane hydrates), and geothermal energy, cal factors that are responsible for the genesis, evolu- which contribute little (or not at all) to the U.S. energy mix, tion, and productivity of source rocks and low-perme- are not as well understood. Because these resources have the ability reservoirs, that is, shale gas, shale oil, and tight potential to make significant contributions to the energy mix in gas. The improved understanding of the systematics of the future, we identify research activities to address the many self-sourced and low-permeability systems can be used geologic and extractive questions pertaining to these emerging to improve resource assessments. resources. The concept of a mineral system is analogous to that of a • Action 1–2b.—Conduct research on emerging energy petroleum system, in that formation of an ore deposit requires resources to address geologic and extractive questions. a source of metals, a mode of transport (often a hydrother- In particular, studies on the chemistry of oil shale (see mal fluid but also magmatic, weathering, petroleum genera- Highlight, p. 11) and the conditions from which gas tion, or sedimentary processes), and a site of deposition or hydrates accumulate would be useful. Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   11 Oil Shale: Evaluating an Energy Resource and Its Extractive Effects Oil shale potentially can constitute a very large untapped oil resource if the solid kerogen, a fossilized form of organic matter in the rock, can be converted into liquid oil. Decades of field work by U.S. Geological Survey geologists determined that the Green River Formation, which hosts kerogen-rich rocks such as the Mahogany oil shale zone (fig. 5; Mercier and Johnson, 2012), was deposited in a single large lake that covered the Piceance and Uinta Basins and the intervening Douglas Creek arch and that many rich and lean oil shale zones could be traced between the two basins. Combined with assay data, the correlation work was vital in establishing estimates of the total in-place oil shale resources, recently assessed by the USGS to be 1.5 trillion barrels of oil in the Piceance Basin and 1.3 trillion barrels in the Uinta Basin (U.S. Geological Survey Oil Shale Assessment Team, 2010a,b). To convert kerogen into liquid oil, the rock must be heated to between 350 degrees Celsius (°C) and 500°C. To achieve a high enough temperature, the rock must either be mined and retorted or else heated electrically in the subsurface with the oil recovered from wells. Environmental issues include significant amounts of water for mining and retorting, surface distur- bance (either for mining or for wells required for in situ conversion), greenhouse gas emissions generated during retorting, the disposal and reclamation of spent solids if mining and retorting is employed, and the migration of groundwater contami- nated with organic and metallic compounds if in situ conversion is used. Laboratory research is underway at the USGS to document the chemistry of waste products. A major concern is the presence of metals, such as arsenic and mercury, and volatile and dissolved organic compounds. 111° 110° 109° 108° SUMMIT £ ¤ 191 0 5 10 15 20 MILES Vernal UTAH COLORADO 0 5 10 15 20 KILOMETERS DUCHESNE MAP LOCATION UINTAH Roosevelt WASATCH Highlight £ ¤ 40 MOFFAT £ ¤ 40 £ ¤ 87 40° £ ¤ 64 £ ¤ 191 RIO BLANCO UTAH £ ¤ 13 Price CARBON EXPLANATION 6 £ ¤ £ ¤325 Rifle Mahogany zone—Average oil yield GARFIELD in gallons per ton Battlement Mesa ≤3 3.1 to 6 6.1 to 9 EMERY 9.1 to 12 12.1 to 15 £ ¤ 6 Fruita § ¦ ¨ 70 15.1 to 18 Grand Junction 18.1 to 21 39° 21.1 to 24 GRAND 24.1 to 27 27.1 to 30 § ¨ ¦ 70 MESA DELTA 30.1 to 33 33.1 to 36 £ Delta ¤ 50 Mahogany ledge outcrop £ ¤ 191 UTAH COLORADO Base of Parachute Creek Member MONTROSE Moab Figure 5. Isoresource map of Mahogany oil shale zone in Uinta and Piceance Basins showing oil yield in gallons per ton. Oil yield is calculated from Fischer assay, formation thickness, and areal extent. 12   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy • Action 1–2c.—Conduct deposit-scale studies of Alaska.—Similar to the ECS of arctic Alaska, some land- selected types of high-priority commodities, such as ward portions of Alaska are still unexplored, with world-class lithium, REEs and PGMs. The genetic models that mineral deposits still being discovered at the surface. Alaska are generated by such studies will characterize the contains vast resources of coal and other fossil fuels, signifi- geologic setting and abundance of important materials cant potential for geothermal energy, some of the world’s on land and on the sea floor and aid in assessments of largest zinc, copper, and gold deposits, as well as deposits of such resources (goal 3). high-demand mineral commodities, such as REEs, indium, and tin. However, baseline geoscience data for Alaska are • Action 1–2d.—Determine broad-scale controls on the incomplete and of lower resolution, are available in smaller formation and preservation of mineral systems. These quantities, and are not as recent as corresponding data for the studies could target systems that are well understood conterminous United States. The upgrading, updating, and in terms of how they form, such as porphyry copper maintaining of geoscience base data for Alaska are important deposits. for supporting USGS efforts to conduct energy and mineral resources assessments. 1–3. Frontier Studies Concealed resources.—Most of the conterminous United States has been effectively explored on the surface for the Many of the mineral resources in the United States, at presence of mineral resources. Undiscovered resources lie least those exposed at the surface, have been identified, and beneath cover (rocks, colluvium and alluvium, and water) many are being exploited. However, frontier geographic areas, that conceals a resource from recognition. One of the key such as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ, see Highlight, challenges and opportunities the USGS faces in the future is p. 14) and Alaska, are largely unexplored, and many areas assessing resources under cover and in deep settings [more of the United States may contain resources that are not than 1 kilometer (km) below land surface]. Recent efforts exposed at the surface. Such areas require novel or “frontier” by the USGS, industry, and academia have been initiated to approaches or methods for exploring and assessing the poten- develop methods for exploring beneath cover and to develop tial of undiscovered resources. geologic frameworks (goal 1–1) that incorporate source, Exclusive Economic Zone.—The mineral potential of the transport, and trap mechanisms to predict where deposits vast area of the EEZ is little known. Research in the under- formed and where they should be today. In addition, there explored EEZ is needed because the marine deposits of the is work underway to develop better and more powerful area host a wide variety of rare metals and REEs, which are deep-penetrating geochemical and geophysical methods and essential to emerging, green, and high-technology applications technology to help visualize those targets, but there is no (Hein and others, 2005). Fundamental research on processes coherent protocol for estimating the possibility or probability instrumental in concentrating metals into ore deposits in the of undiscovered resources beneath cover. Application of new deep ocean can be carried out while the type and distribution methods and protocols for covered regions will give the USGS of the deposits are being surveyed. These research results the ability to make more objective, repeatable, and reliable could provide a framework to support future assessments of assessments of undiscovered resources. The identification of deep-ocean mineral potential. Collaborative work with USGS covered mineral resources, particularly in the western United coastal and marine scientists, other Federal agencies, univer- States, also can yield important information for environmental sity scientists, and oceanographic institutions will improve the and hydrologic studies. quality and utility of these studies. Beyond the EEZ is the Extended Continental Shelf (ECS), as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Major Questions Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) (United Nations, 1982). The • What are the dominant processes that result in a con- ECS can be established by coastal nations based on specific centration of metals in the deep ocean, and what are geologic and geomorphologic criteria. The potential ECS the geological, geochemical, and geophysical charac- of the United States could significantly increase the size of teristics that distinguish these deposits? the already expansive EEZ, especially north of Alaska in the Arctic Ocean. The ECS of arctic Alaska is a poorly under- • What are the geologic data needs in Alaska and the stood tectonic region for which fundamental crustal geological Arctic? questions must be resolved for both territorial resolution and resource delineation. International collaborative studies can • What are the processes that enhance the surface potentially optimize research on the geologic framework and expression of subsurface resources, and what are the the endowment of energy and mineral resources, which are geological, geochemical, biological, and geophysical currently (2013) unknown but likely to include oil and gas, gas characteristics that can be used to assess concealed hydrate, and rare and critical metals. resources? Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   13 Strategic Actions for energy and mineral resources in Alaska and the Arctic offshore. Prioritize regions in Alaska in which • Action 1–3a.—Promote the collection of the geologi- significant upgrades in base data, satellite imagery, cal, geophysical, and geochemical data within the and geophysical, geochemical, and geologic maps are U.S. EEZ. This effort will require collaborations with required. This activity would benefit from coordination coastal and marine programs, oceanographic institu- with the State of Alaska and other government agen- tions, and other government agencies, such as the cies, the academic community, and industry. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), on relevant oceanographic, geological, and geochemical • Action 1–3c.—Construct geologic frameworks for process research. concealed deposits. These frameworks would be based on source, transport, and trap mechanisms to predict • Action 1–3b.—Expand collection and evaluation of where deposits are formed, where they occur, and what geological, geophysical, and geochemical field data features can be detected at the surface. Helicopter drop off for USGS scientist to collect a granodiorite rock sample on a ridge top in the Western Alaska Range. Photograph by John Jackson, USGS. 14   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Minerals in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone The U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) comprises all marine areas within 200 nautical miles of the nearest U.S. land, including Pacific islands of U.S. affiliation (Hein and others, 2005), a total area approximately 20 percent greater than the entire U.S. land area (fig. 6A; U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy, 2004). The United States has sovereign rights for the pur- pose of exploring, exploiting, conserving, and managing natural resources in the EEZ. These resources include deep-ocean strategic and critical minerals essential for national security and economic growth, especially in high-technology and green applications. Deposit types that have promis- ing resource potential are sea A floor massive sulfides, ferro- manganese crusts, manganese nodules, and phosphorite. Significantly, some of these Alaska deep-ocean mineral deposits have high concentrations of rare earth elements, precious metals, base metals, and many other resources, but the resource potential of these deposits is yet Midway United States to be determined. In fact, recon- Northern Islands Hawaiian Mariana naissance minerals data do not Islands Wake Island Islands exist for substantial parts of the EEZ. The knowledge base of the Navassa Island Highlight USGS combined with published Guam Howland Island Johnston Atoll Palmyra Atoll and unpublished databases and Kingman Reef Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands collections of new data can be Baker Island used for resource and environ- Jarvis Island mental evaluation and develop- ment of deposit models. USGS American resource assessment tech- Samoa niques developed for land-based deposits may have applications for offshore deposits once suf- EXPLANATION ficient relevant data for the EEZ Great Lakes U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone have been collected on research cruises specifically designed to study mineral deposits. B Figure 6. A, Map showing the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ; blue shaded areas). B, Clockwise from upper left: 13.6-centimeter (cm) diameter nodule from Marshall Island in the EEZ; three abyssal nodules, each 3 cm in diameter, from the Clarion-Clipperton prime nodule zone (international waters); cross-section of nodule from the Blake Plateau off the coast of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina; diagenetic nodules in a box core from the Peru Basin; and dense concentration of nodules rich in nickel, copper, lithium, and molybdenum located in an area about 4 meters (m) by 3 m of the Johnston Atoll EEZ. Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   15 Goal 2: Understand the Environmental Behavior environmental challenges requiring cutting edge scientific insights to solve, in addition to addressing existing, unsolved of Energy and Mineral Resources and Their environmental challenges associated with traditional resource Waste Products recovery and use. As the United States plans its energy and minerals future, Introduction it must be cognizant that some previous extraction and devel- The research challenges associated with sustainability opment activities have had adverse environmental effects. of energy and mineral resources and the environment are Research at legacy resource extraction sites can provide woven together in a complex tapestry that spans the entire insights into potential alternative sources of resources through lifecycle of resource development from the geologic setting reprocessing of waste streams or beneficial reuse. Further- of formation and occurrence through exploration, extraction, more, studies at legacy sites can provide understanding of processing, and use to reclamation, recycling, or disposal and long-term biogeochemical processes influencing environmen- beyond. A more comprehensive understanding of the interac- tal signatures; insight into complex natural exposure routes to tions among energy and mineral resources and environmental surrounding ecosystems and humans; and information needed and biological receptors can help the following: resource for mitigation and remediation as well as to inform responsible industries to identify efficient and cost-effective means of resource development in the future. mitigating adverse environmental effects, land use managers The strategic research actions presented in this section and regulators to ensure proper stewardship and protection outline opportunities for the USGS that can be tailored to of the environment, and citizens to be informed about risks advance the state of knowledge of environmental research for and benefits associated with resource extraction (National a number of different commodities throughout the resource Research Council, 2007). Furthermore, research characterizing lifecycle. These strategic actions present numerous oppor- these interactions will provide a basic scientific foundation tunities for partnering with other Federal agencies, includ- needed to analyze these risks and benefits, sometimes referred ing (but not limited to) resource stewardship and regulatory to as a “full cost accounting,” with the aim of facilitating sci- agencies such as the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management; entifically informed decisionmaking regarding the sustainable the Bureau of Land Management; the National Institutes of development of energy and mineral resources. Health; the National Park Service; the Office of Surface Min- Global economic growth likely will maintain the demand ing, Reclamation, and Enforcement; the U.S. Army Corps of for those energy and mineral commodities that have tradi- Engineers; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; the tionally formed the staples of society, including aluminum, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; and the U.S. Forest Ser- coal, copper, gas, gold, iron, lead, oil, silver, uranium, and vice. Likewise, partnership opportunities also exist at local, zinc. This demand likely will drive resource exploration in regional, and State levels, such as State geological surveys, as less accessible geologic environments, such as deeper in the well as private industry for advancing our understanding of Earth’s crust and offshore, production of larger deposits of the relation between energy and mineral development and the lower grade, and technological advances that enable new environment. resource recovery methods. For example, the production of natural gas from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing, also referred to as “fracking,” is increasing, but the potential Major Questions effects of this technology on water quality and surface-water hydrology are not well understood. • What processes enhance or limit fate and transport, Increased demand for emerging commodities (such including toxicological effects, of contaminants associ- as REEs used in permanent magnets for wind turbines and ated with energy and mineral resources in natural hybrid-car batteries; lithium used in batteries for hybrid cars settings ? and other uses; and potash and phosphate in mineral fertilizers • Can we distinguish between natural backgrounds and needed for biofuel production) will present additional unique concentrations of elements enhanced by human activi- environmental challenges and opportunities. These commodi- ties? ties fall into two main categories: those that are the primary target of mineral production, such as most REEs, lithium, • How can we best transfer insights gained from labora- PGMs, potash, and phosphate, and those that are produced as tory studies to large-scale field settings and improve byproducts of other commodities, such as gallium, indium, the transfer of scientific insights from basic research to cadmium, tellurium, and some REEs (see Highlight, p. 16). field applications? In many cases, these commodities are derived from geologi- cally and mineralogically unique deposit types that require • Are there chemical and physical characteristics of specialized ore-processing techniques to extract the metals, emerging energy and mineral resources that determine which result in unconventional wastes. Collectively, these beneficial reusability, byproduct recovery, environmen- future trends in resource production will lead to a host of new tal effects, or appropriate disposal options? 16   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Renewable Energy and Nonrenewable Mineral Resources Significant amounts of nonrenewable mineral resources will be needed to support the growing demand for domestic renewable energy, requiring knowledge about both the sources and the environmental effects of using these minerals, also referred to as energy-critical elements (American Physical Society and Materials Research Society, 2011). For example, many of these mineral commodities come from foreign sources; rare earth elements (REEs), which are used to manufacture magnets for wind turbines and hybrid car batteries, currently (2013) are mined almost exclusively in China. Diversifying REE supplies may prove challenging, as the mineral deposits that yield REEs are atypical with respect to environmental chal- lenges associated with mining and are poorly understood. Similarly, the manufacture of new, higher efficiency or lower cost photovoltaic cells (fig. 7) relies on mineral commodities such as cadmium, gallium, germanium, indium, selenium, and tellurium, which typically are produced as byproducts of the mining of metals such as copper and zinc. Significant amounts of these technologically important commodities may occur in waste piles from historical mines where ore beneficiation techniques were not designed to recover these elements. In addition, transferring electricity generated by solar “farms” to market would require an expanded electrical grid, spurring demand for copper wire. Environmental protection and stew- ardship of lands associated with future mining for all these mineral commodities will rely on a sound scientific understand- Highlight ing of the source, transport, and fate of all potential contaminants associated with the deposit types that will yield these commodities. Figure 7. Solar panels installed at the Denver Federal Center in Lakewood, Colorado. Renewable energy sources such as solar energy from photovoltaic cells are reliant on a number of nonrenewable mineral commodities, such as arsenic, cadmium, gallium, selenium, and tellurium. • How will climate change affect the environmental geothermal waters and methane leakage from shale-gas characteristics of energy and mineral waste associated production represent examples of sources of carbon. with past, present, and future production? Likewise, magnesium and calcium-silicate minerals in mine waste represent sinks for atmospheric CO2. • How significant are greenhouse gas emissions or removals associated with energy and mineral produc- • Action 2–1b.—Investigate perturbations to the natural tion relative to global greenhouse gas budgets? landscape during the resource lifecycle. Multidis- ciplinary research studies at both legacy and active energy and mineral production sites will assist in Strategic Actions discerning the differences between natural background and anthropogenic effects of energy and mineral devel- 2–1. Fundamental Studies opment. • Action 2–1a.—Investigate carbon sources and potential • Action 2–1c.—Develop studies to understand the role sinks associated with energy and mineral resources of climate in altering natural background environmen- and renewable energy production to improve under- tal signatures of energy and minerals systems and the standing of carbon cycling. Carbon dioxide release behavior of waste products from energy and mineral from limestone during cement manufacturing, CO2 in development. This understanding is essential for Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   17 devising effective mitigation or remediation strate- copper and uranium recovery, hydraulic fracturing for gies for proposed, ongoing, or legacy mining activities shale gas production, and gas hydrate recovery using or for predicting behavior of wastes under variable hot water, steam injection, and depressurization. climate regimes. • Action 2–2d.—Expand USGS capabilities for research on the minerals commodities and geologically based 2–2. Applied Investigations environmental effects associated with the growing use • Action 2–2a.—Characterize waste streams associated of renewable energy resources (biomass, geothermal, with energy and mineral production and processing. hydropower, solar, and wind) to provide information These studies will improve the understanding of the for assessment activities. linkages between the energy and mineral resources characteristics and waste products, of opportunities 2–3. Synthesis Activities for recycling and byproduct resource recovery, and of mitigation, management, or remediation of contami- • Action 2–3a.—Create geologically based environmen- nant releases to the environment from these wastes. tal models. These models, known as geoenvironmental models (duBray, 1995), can include priority, conven- • Action 2–2b.—Conduct research on deep geologic tional energy resources (such as coal and uranium) and reservoirs for disposal of wastes from energy and emerging critical mineral and energy commodities, mineral development, extraction, and use. Candidates such as shale gas and REEs. This extension of geoen- for disposal in deep geologic reservoirs could include: vironmental models will assist in understanding the uranium-contaminated groundwater produced during in situ recovery, high-salinity water coproduced with geological and geochemical controls on contaminant oil and gas; CO2 generated from fossil fuels (geologic transport and fate, identifying potential environmental carbon sequestration); and spent nuclear fuel and high- risks, identifying data gaps, and improving energy and level nuclear waste. mineral resources assessments. • Action 2–2c.—Investigate the environmental geo- • Action 2–3b.—Enhance the ability to transfer insights chemistry of emerging production technologies. Such between simple process-oriented, short term, and insights will be invaluable in designing methods to small-scale laboratory experiments and complex, perform resource assessments and integrated assess- longer term, and large-scale natural energy and mineral ments of future resource development (goals 3 and 4). systems. Well-designed field studies in key settings These technologies could include a number of in situ can span gaps in both temporal and spatial scales and or leaching techniques such as in situ conversion of oil improve predictive capacity for processes operating shale (see Highlight, p. 11), in situ leach mining for within Earth systems. A geothermal power plant at The Geysers near Santa Rosa, California.Photograph by Julie Donnelly-Nolan, USGS. 18   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Goal 3: Provide Inventories and Assessments of assessment methodology may be required to adequately evalu- ate projected supply fluctuations (goal 5) and their effect. Energy and Mineral Resources Introduction Energy Where will the United States obtain the energy and min- The role of the USGS in evaluation of energy resources eral commodities necessary to support its future infrastructure is focused on geologically based, undiscovered resources, and technology? Policymakers, the global financial sector, exclusive of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. Periodic USGS industry, and others rely on the USGS to provide information assessments of technically recoverable, undiscovered oil, gas, needed for understanding the national and global distribution, and natural gas liquids in the United States and the world supply, and demand for energy and mineral resources. (Ahlbrandt and others, 2005) based on a systematic, vetted, The USGS founding directive to examine the “... min- probabilistic methodology are used by a wide variety of insti- eral resources, and products of national domain” (43 U.S.C. tutions around the world. The geologic reports (for example, §31) includes fuel (coal, oil, uranium) and nonfuel mineral U.S. Geological Survey Bighorn Basin Province Assessment materials, as well as studies outside the national domain when Team, 2010) that accompany most domestic petroleum assess- such studies are in the national interest. The USGS is one of ments are highly valued by customers and serve as long-last- the principal Federal agencies that develop global informa- ing geoscience compilations for sedimentary basins across the tion and comprehensive science for nonfuel minerals (fig. 8). United States. The USGS provides energy resource assessments and shares As geologic understanding and extraction technolo- responsibility for many aspects of global energy data and gies advance, assessments must be updated, and assessment science with other Federal agencies, such as the Department of methodologies must evolve. The rapidly expanding production Energy (DOE), the Energy Information Administration (EIA), of oil and gas from low-porosity and permeability reservoirs and the BOEM. Responsibility for managing fuel and nonfuel (tight gas, shale gas, and shale oil) requires innovation in resources and the lands on which they occur belongs to other assessment methods as well as improved understanding of the agencies. The USGS also plays a key role in assessing the geologic and geochemical nature of the reservoirs (goal 1). For energy and mineral resources endowment in other countries, as example, a recent assessment (Coleman and others, 2011) of part of the larger U.S. effort to understand the global resources the undiscovered oil and gas potential of the Marcellus Shale (fig. 9) used production data from shale gas accumulations endowment, foster science diplomacy, and support investment, in this and other U.S. sedimentary basins to more effectively capacity building, development, and political stability in these visualize and understand the long-term production profiles that countries while potentially increasing supply to the world characterize shale gas production through time. The geological market (National Research Council, 2012). and other information needed for underpinning these efforts In the next decade, the need for resource estimates in an can provide opportunities, such as Milici and others (2012), economic context will increase as stakeholders and decision- for leveraging and enhancing relationships with key USGS makers seek information for considering multiple options at partners, including the State geological surveys. decision points along the resource lifecycle (U.S. Geological The USGS also assesses domestic undiscovered resources Survey, 2007). Analyses that model the interaction between of several nonpetroleum sources of energy. Undiscovered coal geologic characteristics of the resource and engineering/eco- resources in the United States have been assessed, and reserve nomic cost variables provide an added dimension in terms of estimates are underway (for example, Scott and others, 2011). the amount of resource that potentially can be recovered and Uranium, currently (2013) the subject of an ongoing, joint sold at a price covering the costs of discovery, development, USGS-EIA study of undiscovered resources, is hosted in a production, and transportation to the market. Examples could variety of geologic settings, which complicates the assessment include building on completed coal assessments to evaluate process. An effort to develop a uranium environmental assess- the effects of coal composition on its extraction and use and ment methodology would complement the ongoing resource developing a full-cycle model to evaluate economic and other assessment effort and provide the scientific understanding of factors that affect the amount of undiscovered Arctic oil and the influences of uranium resources and their potential effects gas resources that could be added to global supply. Extending on the environment. Likewise, renewed interest in thorium the economic information in inventories and resource assess- may necessitate additional study of the domestic potential ments provides additional data that may be useful to Federal, for this resource (see Highlight, p. 22). Effective assessment State, and other decisionmakers for understanding the poten- methodologies for the commodity under consideration would tial benefits as well as environmental and other costs (goal 4). benefit from an improved geologic understanding of occur- Depending on the scale and scope of innovation, iterative rence (goal 1) and the evolution of extraction techniques and evaluations, new assessments (for newly significant elements must portray the range of uncertainty of data and results at all or geographic regions, for example), or significant changes to stages of the assessment. Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   19 A. Energy B. Minerals Inventories Assessments Inventories Assessments World, excluding United States Federal offshore U.S. onshore and State-owned waters Produced Discovered Undiscovered Produced Discovered Undiscovered Resource category Resource category Figure 8. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides assessment and information (green areas) for A, energy resources, and B, mineral resources by geographic region and resource category. Discovered resources are those accumulations known to exist. Undiscovered resources are those theorized to exist, based on local geology being permissive for a specific type of energy or mineral deposit. For energy, the USGS conducts assessments of undiscovered resources. For nonfuel minerals, the USGS provides scientific data and inventories of produced and discovered resources as well as conducts assessments of undiscovered resources. The regulatory and resource stewardship responsibilities for these resources reside with other agencies. Major Questions • Action 3–1d.—Extend components of economic and environmental analyses, where possible in coopera- • What are the undiscovered resources of technically tion with other bureaus, to broaden the assessment of recoverable oil, gas, coal, uranium, and geothermal technically recoverable resources. The linking of these energy in the United States and in the world? economic and environmental analyses with future integrated assessments, as described in goal 4, will • What is the range of economic and environmental con- enhance the utility and relevance of these analyses to sequences of extraction and delivery of these energy resource stewardship agencies. resources? Minerals Strategic Actions The responsibility of the USGS for mineral materi- 3–1. Undiscovered Geologically Based Energy Resources als includes evaluating the complete range of production data, reserves, resources, and undiscovered deposits (fig. 8) • Action 3–1a.—Conduct periodic assessments of undis- throughout the world and across the full spectrum of globally covered, technically recoverable gas and oil resources traded commodities. This responsibility requires a broad scope of the United States (exclusive of the U.S. Outer Con- of USGS activities related to minerals, ranging from collection tinental Shelf) and the world with increasing emphasis and compilation of geologic, production, and economic data on reserve growth and unconventional resources, such to inventories of domestic and global reserves and resources, as tight gas reservoirs. analyses of spatial and temporal patterns and materials flow, • Action 3–1b.—Complete an updated national assess- and assessments of undiscovered resources. ment of undiscovered uranium resources. The USGS National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) collects, analyzes, and publishes data on domestic • Action 3–1c.—Conduct targeted assessments of and global reserves. Domestic data collection activities are emerging energy resources (for example, gas hydrates, facilitated by cooperative agreements with State govern- geothermal energy, oil shale) as warranted by research ment agencies, whereas international minerals information findings (goal 1) and by advances in extraction tech- is obtained annually by questionnaires and exchanges with nology. organizations in approximately 100 countries. The USGS also tracks active mines, mineral operations, and facilities globally, and the Mineral Resources Data System (MRDS) provides limited geologic data for some domestic and global deposits, 20   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy 89° W 87° W 85° W 83° W 81° W 79° W 77° W 75° W 73° W 71° W 45° N LAKE ME HURON WI LAKE ONTARIO NY VT LAKE MI NH MICHIGAN 43° N LAKE ERIE EXPLANATION MA Appalachian Basin Province CT RI PA 41° N Western Margin Marcellus AU Foldbelt Marcellus AU Interior Marcellus AU NJ ATLANTIC OCEAN IL IN OH MD 39° N DE Area map WV KY VA 37° N TN NC 35° N SC 0 100 200 MILES 33° N 0 100 200 KILOMETERS MS AL GA Figure 9. Extent of the Marcellus assessment units (AUs) within the Appalachian Basin geologic province. The Marcellus Shale is now exploited as a combination reservoir and source rock for natural gas and natural gas liquids. A probabilistic resource assessment completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2011 estimated a range of 43 trillion to 144 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable gas (not counted as reserves), with a mean estimate of 84 trillion cubic feet. Most of the undiscovered gas is within the Interior Marcellus AU. prospects, and mineral occurrences, but comprehensive and the geochemistry of Earth systems (goal 1), more accurate systematically updated coverage of discovered deposits world- geologic models of mineral resources can be built and used wide is not currently (2013) available through the MRDS. to constrain estimates of the location, quality, and quantity of Public and private sectors rely on USGS minerals infor- undiscovered resources. mation to improve the understanding of how mineral materi- als are used within the economy and to forecast future supply Major Questions and demand for these materials. This domestic and global information is subsequently used in the analysis of national • What are the global reserves and annual production of and international policies, in formulating plans to deal with nonfuel mineral materials, and what potential supply potential shortages and interruptions in mineral supplies, and restrictions do these indicate? in fostering the development of strategies for maintaining a • What are the discovered and potential undiscovered competitive position within the global economy. resources of nonfuel minerals in the United States that Assessments of domestic undiscovered mineral resources could bolster future supplies? are amenable to probabilistic methodologies similar to those used for energy resources, but mineral resources occur in • What types of information are needed to provide unbi- a broader range of geologic settings and require an under- ased assessments of undiscovered mineral resources standing of a much wider array of geologic frameworks. and effectively portray their uncertainty, and at what With this additional knowledge and more expansive study of scales? Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   21 Strategic Actions 3–2. Discovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources • Action 3–2e.—Strengthen and expand the analytical • Action 3–2a.—Expand partnerships with governments, functions of the NMIC to provide more comprehensive industry, and the Nation’s research and development overviews of changes to global nonfuel mineral supply sectors to ensure that the USGS has timely, accurate, and demand. In particular, expand spatially oriented long-term, and comprehensive global commodity data analyses of global production, trade, manufacturing, for all nonfuel mineral commodities. and materials end-use. • Action 3–2b.—Establish a periodic review, in consul- tation with government and industry partners, of the 3–3. Undiscovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources range of commodities covered, process and scope of data collection, and the format, range, and availability • Action 3–3a.—Reevaluate the methodology, scale, of data products. scope, coverage, and output of undiscovered mineral resource assessments. Include consideration of base • Action 3–2c.—Expand due-diligence field studies to data, engineering (technology, processing), environ- confirm the geologic characteristics and the resource mental, and mineral economics expertise in assess- and grade data for high-priority commodities. Work ments and evaluate the uncertainty and effectiveness of could include the tracking of reserve-growth character- qualitative and quantitative (probabilistic) methodolo- istics of individual mineral deposit types. gies. • Action 3–2d.—Enhance the scope and functionality of • Action 3–3b.—Develop methodologies for assessment the domestic discovered resources database. This spa- of undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources in fron- tially oriented, continuously updated national reference tier regions: in Alaska, the EEZ, and the ECS and for system ideally would contain geologic, production, resources deeper than 1 km below the Earth’s surface. reserve, and resource data for all mines, prospects, and This activity would benefit from appropriate strong mineral occurrences within the United States. partners, including the BOEM, in the offshore realm. Supporting infrastructure (foreground) and mining operations at the Red Dog ore deposit (background), the world’s largest producer of zinc, located in the western Brooks Range in Alaska. In addition to discovered resources at Red Dog, there may be undiscovered resource potential in the region as we learn more about the complex structural and fluid-flow history in this geologic setting. Mineral resource assessments that incorporate geologic framework studies are used to estimate the probability of undiscovered deposits in Alaska and elsewhere that may contribute to future mineral supplies. Photograph by Tom Moore, USGS. 22   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Thorium: Why and Where? Globally, thorium is experiencing much renewed interest and research investment as a potential fuel source because it provides a source of nuclear power that does not proliferate weapons-caliber plutonium, has the potential to generate electrical power with a low carbon footprint, and may have operational advantages compared with uranium-fueled reac- tors in terms of power density, cost, scale, and waste disposal. Major research and development efforts on thorium-based reactors are underway in China and India. U.S. research on thorium and molten-salt nuclear reactors was discontinued in 1969, but recent national energy policy discussions have renewed calls for research and development of thorium as an energy resource. Geochemically, thorium and rare earth elements (REEs) coexist. The radioactivity of REE deposits is principally owing to thorium, which presents an environmental issue in the waste streams of REE mining and processing. Within the United States, thorium could be produced as a byproduct from the production of REEs, thereby converting a once undesirable waste into a valuable commodity. The United States has some of the largest thorium resources in the world. The USGS led a considerable amount of research on thorium geology (fig. 10; Van Gosen and others, 2009) from the late 1950s to the late 1980s. Many thorium- bearing districts in the United States were studied, described, mapped, and sampled (Van Gosen and others, 2009). More than 200 thorium-rich veins in the Beaverhead Mountains form the Lemhi Pass district, which is thought to contain the largest concentration of thorium resources in the United States and is the site of renewed thorium exploration activity. Given the growing interest in thorium, an improved understanding of the geology, mineralogy, geochemistry, and resource potential of thorium-bearing systems could provide information needed for the development of comprehensive energy policies and consideration of alternatives during the next decade. A Highlight B Figure 10. Photographs of the Lemhi Pass thorium district in Idaho and Montana. A, View to the north of the Lucky Horseshoe prospect (middle of photograph), which is one group of numerous exploration trenches, cuts, and short adits that explored thorium-rich vein systems of the Lemhi Pass thorium district in the 1950s through the 1980s. B, Outcrop of the Wonder vein (between red lines) in the Lemhi Pass thorium district exposed in a mined bench. The vein is heavily oxidized and consists mainly of silica, likely some carbonate, and iron oxide minerals with thorite and altered thorite. Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   23 Goal 4: Understand the Effects of Energy and managers to better understand their needs and developing new targeted spatial products based on existing data and Mineral Development on Natural Resources and knowledge. Society Recognizing the need for more comprehensive infor- mation for decisions, State, Federal, and nongovernmental Introduction organizations are increasingly interested in broader assess- Policymakers and resource stewards will face challenges ment, inventory, and research activities, especially for sizeable through the next decade in terms of making decisions amidst geographic areas. Large landscape initiatives—for example, uncertainty, particularly in emerging areas where informa- DOI landscape conservation cooperatives, Bureau of Land tion is lacking or the state of science is equivocal (National Magement (BLM) rapid ecoregional assessments, National Research Council, 2005). Increasing domestic energy and Park Service vulnerability assessments, and the Western Gov- mineral production, emerging use of new technologies and ernors Association wildlife corridors initiative—are providing renewable energy development, and mandates to consider the information at requisite spatial scales suitable for regional or costs, benefits, and cumulative effects of development present cumulative effects analyses. These initiatives will benefit from complex challenges for agencies responsible for managing additional research and technical assistance, but meeting these natural resources in the United States. Refinements in direc- needs requires application of the research and foundational tional drilling and hydraulic fracturing to produce unconven- understanding developed through goals 1 and 2, the reliable tional hydrocarbon resources have increased accessibility of inventory products discussed in goal 3, and strong integra- these resources, but these techniques have potential subsurface tion of research capabilities within USGS and with external and above-ground effects on water and other resources that are partners. Achieving this goal will require scientific collabora- only partially understood. Similarly, the importance of reduc- tion and the dedication of resources to support the evolving ing greenhouse gas emissions has contributed to the growth in adaptive management strategies developed by the DOI (Wil- the use of renewable energy sources (Intergovernmental Panel liams and others, 2009) and other users of USGS assessment on Climate Change, 2011), such as wind and solar, but the products. linkages of renewable energy infrastructure to mineral devel- An integrated assessment (see Highlight, p. 25) brings opment and the environmental effects of using these energy together disparate datasets in a common format so they can resources merit further study. Information about these benefits be examined and used to support broader policy and deci- and trade-offs can lead to better decisions culminating in sionmaking processes. Integrated assessment also provides an responsible development of resources, ecosystem protection, organizing framework for analysis and communication that is and overall benefits to society (National Research Council, adaptable to the scope and complexity of the question or issue 2005). and can comply with parallel legal requirements for Federal The overarching approach of this goal is to develop the land management and planning (for example, environmental energy and mineral data, frameworks, analytical methods, and impact statements). products to support the information needs of decisionmakers The common characteristics of integrated assessment who must “accommodate ecosystem-based management prac- include collaboration between policymakers or managers tices as they face competing demands for recreation, transport, and scientists, consideration of multiple resource values and leasing, conservation, and economic growth” (U.S. Geological societal needs, and development of relevant products based Survey, 2007, p. 26). The need for more holistic approaches on the best available information and analytical methods. to characterize societal value in the context of decisions gives Integrated assessments that include information on energy and rise to the concept of ecosystem services. The understanding mineral resources, other natural resources, and socioeconomic of ecosystem services, which are broadly considered to consist of the results of ecosystem processes that confer benefits on considerations represent interdisciplinary endeavors that lever- human society (President’s Council of Advisors on Science age expertise across the USGS and elsewhere (see Highlight, and Technology, 2011), requires integrated applications of p. 26). USGS research on fundamental Earth processes, inter- economics and ecology (National Research Council, 2005). actions between energy and mineral resources and the envi- Such applications could be used to support information ronment, and quantitative assessments of the distribution and needs for decisions faced at various stages during the energy abundance of resources (goals 1–3) form an essential scientific and mineral resources lifecycle. One effort might consist of and technical foundation for integrated assessments. Improved an evaluation of ecosystem services of the landscape before scientific understanding and information on ecosystems, water development. Policy and resource management decisions resources, land use, and climate change could be developed frequently imply changes relative to some baseline, and most through focused work across the USGS. Using multidisci- changes imply trade-offs, that is, more of one good or service plinary teams, the USGS can provide information (goal 2) but less of another (National Research Council, 2005); hence on different classes or specific types of energy and mineral there is an inherent value in understanding baseline conditions resources, such as uranium, wind energy, or coal, to inform in a predevelopment setting. Key first steps in this approach decisions and national energy policy questions that arise at are designating liaisons to work with land and resource multiple scales to meet the needs of decisionmakers. 24   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Major Questions 4–2. Exploring Interdisciplinary Approaches for Assessing Effects of Energy and Mineral Development • What science can the USGS provide to help assess the range of effects of energy and mineral development • Action 4–2a.—Identify metrics or indicators that reflect relative to other natural resources and socioeconomic the economic and environmental effects and uncer- considerations to facilitate responsible development? tainty of energy and mineral development on other natural resources. For example, a method for evaluat- • How can USGS science help stakeholders and deci- ing water use and production associated with uncon- sionmakers characterize and evaluate tradeoffs among ventional oil and gas resource development could renewable, fossil, and nuclear energy resources, taking improve the understanding of the potential effects of into account the full lifecycle of resource development, development on the availability and quality of water use, and disposal? resources. • What data and information are needed by other Federal • Action 4–2b.—Develop and refine methods for incor- and State agencies and public resource decisionmakers porating social, cultural, economic, and ecosystem to implement best practices throughout the lifecycle of service metrics into integrated assessment approaches energy or mineral resource development? through collaboration with partners and stakeholders. • Action 4–2c.—Develop methods to estimate potential Strategic Actions land surface and seabed disturbance associated with potential development. These methods could draw on 4–1. Spatial Analysis of Energy and Mineral Resources knowledge of the resource, including expanded use of Occurrence and Development USGS estimated ultimate recovery information for oil and gas resources, as well as requirements for develop- • Action 4–1a.—Designate liaisons and a network of ment. energy and mineral resources experts within the USGS who work with land and resource managers, including • Action 4–2d.—Assess the effects of renewable energy those from DOI bureaus and State agencies, to identify development on other natural resources and society, in important information needs. coordination with resource stewardship agencies. This activity could include evaluations of the following: • Action 4–1b.—Provide information on energy and min- physical and biological components of ecosystems, eral development potential to large landscape conser- models and assumptions about development effects at vation initiatives that are evaluating such development different resource lifecycle stages, and the effective- with respect to other natural resources and socioeco- ness of mitigation strategies. nomic considerations. • Action 4–2e.—Develop decision analysis and support • Action 4–1c.—Develop new nationwide spatial data tools to address stewardship needs. Examples of such products for energy and mineral resources. This recognized needs include BLM work processes, such activity could be coordinated with other agencies, as as inventory and assessment, planning, permitting and appropriate, to leverage use of existing datasets. These managing uses, evaluating best management practices products could include existing areas of develop- for mitigation and reclamation, and monitoring. ment for these resources and associated infrastructure, such as roads, pads, pipelines, ponds, compressor stations, and other facilities associated with resource development. Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc.’s Safford Mine (copper) in the foothills of the Gila Mountains (snow capped in the background) north of Safford, Arizona, 2012. For scale, note the haul truck. Photograph by Bruce Gungle, USGS. Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   25 Uranium in the Grand Canyon: A Case Study in Integrated Research and Assessment Issues involving legacy environmental effects, such as those caused by historical mining activities, could challenge the availability of uranium for energy production by resulting in increased environmental costs, societal resistance to uranium mining, or restrictions on accessibility. For example, about one million acres of Federal land in the Grand Canyon region of Arizona (fig. 11) was temporarily withdrawn from new mining claims in July 2009 by the Secretary of the Interior because of concerns that uranium mining could have negative effects on the land, water, people, and wildlife. As directed by the Secretary of the Interior, the Bureau of Land Management engaged the USGS to assist in evaluating the effects of withdrawing these lands from new mining claims. The USGS led multidisciplinary studies that provided estimates of uranium resources, examined the effects of previous breccia-pipe mining, summarized water-chemistry data for streams and springs, and investigated potential biological pathways of exposure to uranium and associated contaminants (Alpine, 2010). An integrated approach (fig. 12) and careful planning were needed to integrate data from various components of uranium lifecycle research across mission areas and to package data so that they could be used in an integrated assessment by social scientists and economists to assess alterna- tive scenarios and thereby help decisionmakers weigh the tradeoffs of uranium mining in the Grand Canyon area. Working together, these USGS groups led a study that could become a model for integrated USGS studies in the future. Figure 11. Kanab North Mine, Resources present? one of several breccia-pipe uranium mines in northern Highlight Adaptive management and design standards Data, spatial overlays Arizona. Accessibility Yes Accessible? No Resources not accessible assessments Maybe Figure 12. Conceptual diagram Metrics for an integrated assessment. Indicators Data The diagram shows a framework and data Resource lifecycle Minerals for integrating lifecycle research 1 1 3 Air Mineral deposit Geoenvironmental Biological Land and science across multiple models models models Water disciplines within the USGS research and assessments Ecosystems (points designated with “1”) Functions Human health and patterns Processes and integrating assessments with additional socioeconomic Probabilities, quantities, derived variables, risk factors considerations (point designated with “2”). Data generated during 2 lifecycle research ultimately Socioeconomic can be used to make decisions model regarding land management Availability Weighting factors or establish designs or design standards for resource assessments Prohibitions? development and protection (point designated with “3”). The Yes No data and information must be communicated so that they can be Resources not Resources available available effectively used, exchanged, and combined at points 1, 2, and 3. 26   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Integrated Assessment for Southwestern Wyoming Driven by local and regional leaders, the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was officially launched in 2007 with support from the U.S. Department of the Interior. The WLCI mission is to implement a long-term, science-based program for assessing, conserving, and enhancing fish and wildlife habitats while facilitating responsible energy and other development through local collaboration and partnerships. Partners in the WLCI include the Bureau of Land Manage- ment, the USGS, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Wyoming Game and Fish Commission, the Wyoming Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Forest Service, six Wyoming county commissions, nine of Wyoming’s conservation districts, and the Pinedale Anticline Project Office. The role of the USGS is to provide multidisciplinary scientific and technical assistance support to WLCI partners and to advance the overall scientific understanding of ecosystems in the southwestern Wyoming landscape. Working with WLCI partners, the USGS has developed an integrated assessment for southwestern Wyoming (fig. 13; Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative, undated). The integrated assessment is an analysis of WLCI resources based on best available data and information and includes roads, energy development, mines, and urban areas along with aquatic and terrestrial natural resources and priority management areas designated by partners. Information is summarized by watershed using a trans- parent and hierarchical approach that facilitates understanding of multiple resources and their contribution to summary index scores. The integrated assessment provides a support tool for landscape-scale conservation planning and evaluation and a data and analysis resource for addressing specific agency management questions. Highlight Figure 13. The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative integrated assessment Web interface. Information on key resources is summarized by watershed, and data used in the development of the assessment are available for download and further analysis. Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   27 Goal 5: Understand the Reliability and The ability of the USGS to respond rapidly and effec- tively to unforeseen disasters with energy and mineral Availability of Energy and Mineral Supplies resources expertise is dependent on leveraging a suite of existing geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral Introduction economics expertise and analytical capabilities. Within the Challenges to national security, economic vitality, quality past decade, the USGS has responded to manmade disasters of life, and environmental well-being can arise suddenly and by providing remote sensing to environmentally map the catastrophically or as a result of long-term trends. Therefore, World Trade Center (WTC) area with imaging spectroscopy our scientific enterprise must remain responsive and adapt- (Clark and others, 2006) and chemical characterization of able to meet new and evolving challenges. The human drivers dusts generated by the WTC collapse (Plumlee and Ziegler, of change are complex and diverse, including advances in 2003); chemical measurements before and after wildfires to technology, competition for natural resources, evolution of assess changes to soils and waters (Eppinger, 2002; Eppinger national and international policies and conflicts, land-use and others, 2003; Wolf and others, 2010); inorganic, organic, change, effects on ecosystems, and shifting social mores and microbial characterization of flood sediments immediately and attitudes. Climate change and natural and anthropogenic following Hurricane Katrina (Plumlee and others, 2006); and disasters and emergencies also can affect energy and minerals volume and flow rate measurements of oil from the Deepwater resource supplies. Some of these events may trigger pertur- Horizon oil spill (Labson and others, 2010). Efforts such as bations in the immediate reliability of energy and mineral these are important to characterizing the initial effects from supplies as well as create environmental stewardship conse- catastrophic events and providing the foundational knowledge quences. Conversely, other events might affect the availability for informing damage assessment and recovery efforts. of resource supplies, that is, our Nation’s ability to obtain In terms of anticipating and preparing for future events, resources over the longer term (years to decades) (National USGS expertise and information can be used to underpin the Research Council, 2008). development of scenarios and help inform response planning The USGS provides information that is essential under- and recovery efforts. As one example, the southern California pinning for policy, management, and stewardship decisions on ShakeOut scenario (Jones and others, 2008) was the basis resource extraction, use, regulation, and waste management, for a cooperative project to evaluate the physical, social, but the magnitude and speed of world events and societal and economic consequences of a modeled large earthquake. changes are placing a premium on flexibility and foresighted- ness. We emphasize in this section the application and adapta- A magnitude 7.8 earthquake as described in the ShakeOut tion of existing USGS expertise to address the future of energy Scenario would cause significant damage to buildings and and mineral supplies for the Nation. infrastructure. Langer (2011) estimated that more than six mil- lion metric tons of newly mined aggregate would be needed for emergency repairs and for reconstruction within the study Major Questions area in the five years following the event. This information is important for understanding both the potential magnitude and • How might the emergence of new technologies or the duration of this perturbation on regional aggregate sup- patterns of resource use affect the mineral and energy plies. Greater emphasis on this type of study exemplifies the requirements of the Nation, and what science and kind of research directions anticipated by this goal. To support information are needed to meet these national require- these endeavors, additional investments would be needed to ments? establish mechanisms for timely sample and data analysis, • What approaches can be used to identify vulnerabilities interpretation, and delivery to the responders, decisionmakers, within the supply chain of mineral materials? and the general public in understandable formats. • How can the USGS better prioritize and align energy 5–2. Evolving Issues Affect Long-Term Availability and minerals research activities to address the most critical future issues? Two factors that will continue to significantly affect global demand for energy resources and mineral materials in the next decade are the rapid economic development that 5–1. Sudden Disruptions Affect Supplies several countries are experiencing and the proliferation of new Some future events will arrive suddenly with little warn- or emerging technologies. The expected increase in global ing and will require immediate responses that make the best demand, especially in countries undergoing rapid economic use of existing information and capabilities. Disaster response development, is, in part, a reflection of the need to build a precipitated by natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis modern infrastructure. For example, China has accounted for (see Highlight, p. 29), and floods, by terrorist acts, or by cata- most of the global increase in mineral consumption from 2000 strophic human error requires the ability to provide relevant to 2010. Global mineral consumption is expected to increase information almost instantaneously. in response to further development in China and economic 28   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy development in countries with large populations, such as mineral statistics and mineral resources are vital components India. in building viable models for minerals and mineral materials. The use of new technologies represents another fac- USGS data on materials flows, in combination with energy- tor that changes mineral consumption rates and patterns. flow information from partners such as the EIA, can be used The influence of these technologies on engineering design is to model the energy and minerals requirements for new or steering a significant shift in consumption of high-technology emerging materials technologies, as well as monitor supply materials (for example, aluminum alloys, doped crystals fluctuations, assess energy and material demands for different and films, carbon-composite fibers) and associated fuels (for industry sectors, provide warnings of potential supply risks, example, high-octane fuels), all produced with different forms and illuminate vulnerabilities in global production and manu- of metals and mineral materials. This rapid evolution in con- facturing supply chains. sumption patterns highlights the limits of our knowledge about The output of these models could provide a platform the distribution and concentration of some of the raw materials for comprehensive planning and management of national that these industries use. resources and for identifying short- and long-term vulner- To respond to issues of energy and mineral supplies, the abilities in the supply chain of minerals critical to the national USGS must understand the availability of energy and mineral economy and defense. Supply chains and end uses of mineral materials at both national and global scales. For instance, materials are dynamic; hence, the suite of materials identi- constraining imports of these resources have the potential to fied as strategic or critical are also dynamic and will require affect U.S. economic development and national security, thus periodic reevaluation. Materials flow analyses and network information on global and domestic resource distribution and models may also provide an active, quantifiable mechanism availability can inform decisions about risks associated with to help inform decisions on future USGS energy and minerals import dependence and possible actions to mitigate supply risk research activities. (National Research Council, 2012). As the Nation’s energy mix changes, the USGS will likely expand its research and assessment portfolio to include Strategic Actions a more comprehensive suite of energy resources, including hydrocarbon- and nonhydrocarbon-based sources (U.S. Geo- 5–1. Sudden Disruptions Affect Supplies logical Survey, 2007, p. 25), and expand studies that provide a geological basis for energy mix analyses, such as the age and • Action 5–1a.—Enhance capabilities for rapidly decline rates of giant domestic fields from which a large pro- responding to events, such as natural disasters or portion of oil supply is produced. Another topic could be the manmade disruptions, that result in significant pertur- geological understanding of resource volume and distribution, bations to resource supplies or the release of energy such as analysis of stranded gas (Attanasi and Freeman, 2011), resources or mineral materials to the environment. particularly in areas likely to emerge as the focus of signifi- Enhancing these capabilities would require strengthen- cant future development. In aggregate, these activities could ing of coordination mechanisms to facilitate deploy- be used to provide a foundation for developing energy mix ment of rapid-response science teams and equipment to scenarios, for identifying new avenues of geologic processes collect time-sensitive data from the field and to extract research, and for refining approaches to resource assessments. scale-appropriate data or other information from exist- Many mineral commodities are increasingly important for ing databases (see Highlight, p. 29). clean-energy industries, defense applications, and consumer • Action 5–1b.—Conduct research on how technologi- electronics. A geographic concentration in global supply for cal and economic systems interact to affect energy and some of these energy-critical elements (American Physical minerals availability, and develop scenarios to describe Society and Materials Research Society, 2011) introduces how perturbations influence that dynamic. Such analy- issues of supply risk. The minerals necessary for these emerg- sis and reporting could specifically focus on nodes and ing technologies need to be a key component of the USGS portfolio of minerals research and information collection links in supply chains that are particularly vulnerable activities. Further development of materials flow and sup- to sudden disruption. ply chain analyses (see Highlight, p. 30) are needed to better understand the movement of materials and their derivatives 5–2. Evolving Issues Affect Long-Term Availability through the global economy and facilitate analyses of supply risk. • Action 5–2a.—Develop approaches for identifying The methodologies for analyzing the materials flow mineral materials that are strategic and critical to of energy and mineral materials are just evolving, yet their the U.S. economy, energy supply, infrastructure, and development is fundamental to understanding how natural national security. This activity would benefit from con- and human systems interact with and influence global econo- sultation with partners, such as the U.S. Department mies. The depth and consistency of USGS databases on of Defense, industrial manufacturers, the National Goals for Energy and Mineral Resources Science   29 USGS Scientific Contributions to Disaster Response Following the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami The devastating, magnitude 9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami that struck the eastern coast of Japan near Tohoku on March 11, 2011, required coordinated disaster response efforts, including significant science contributions. With at least 15,000 people killed and hundreds of thousands displaced from their homes, the humanitarian efforts were paramount, but determining the full effect of the disaster also involved assessing the local and global physical and economic effects. In addition to the damage to the nuclear reactors at Fukushima, there was widespread damage to the area’s industry and infrastructure. The USGS analyzed the effect of the earthquake and tsunami on mineral facilities in the region to assess potential disruptions to Japanese and global mineral and material supply chains (fig. 14; Menzie and others, 2011). Nine cement plants in the affected area produced 30 percent of Japan’s cement; eight iodine plants in the same region accounted for 25 percent of the world’s iodine supply. The earthquake- affected zone also included nine metal refin- eries, four iron and steel plants, four limestone mines, and two titanium facilities. Highlight The USGS briefed policymakers soon after the quake and published a report on the findings within eight business days of the event (Menzie and others, 2011). This type of rapid data analysis immediately following a disaster is of major importance for response planning by governments and industry. As a result of the Tohoku effort, USGS minerals informa- tion and analyses are now being incorporated into disaster-planning scenarios, such as the U.S. regional ShakeOut earthquake exercises. Figure 14. Locations of mines and mineral facilities in Japan. 30   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Materials Flow Analysis: Illustrating Global Commodity Supply Vulnerabilities Materials flow analysis (fig.15A; modified from Kostick, 1996) is the systematic accounting of a material or commodity from extraction through processing, manufacturing, reuse, and ultimate disposal (Brown and others, 2000; National Research Council, 2004). The USGS National Minerals Information Center provides information on the demand for minerals and min- eral materials across industry sectors and develops materials flow analyses for selected commodities (fig.15B; data from Lori Apodaca, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., April 4, 2012). This example (fig. 15B) highlights a derivative appli- cation of materials flow analysis: the ability to evaluate human influences on global biogeochemical cycling of elements, such as sulfur; data are reported in million metric tons (Mt). Supply-chain analysis, a more comprehensive form of materials flow analysis, illustrates each step in the chain of use from source to disposal. Supply-chain analysis accounts for all steps of production and processing (mines, mills, smelt- ers, refineries, fabricators, and the manufacture of final goods), inventories and stockpiles, costs (fixed, variable, and new capacity startup), and necessary transportation facilities. Fully developed models require extensive data on the economics of production and trade, values of processed materials, demand variations through time, knowledge of materials properties specific to individual sectors of the economy, information on the capacity and manufacturing capabilities, and location for all downstream infrastructure (processing and production facilities). An analysis of supply chains for materials critical to the United States is required to identify economic vulnerabilities that could be precipitated by global trends and circum- stances. The USGS is uniquely positioned to develop these tools. A Sources Processing Consumption (use) Post-consumption Examples Examples Examples Examples Highlight • Mines • Ore concentrates • Exports • Disposal • Imports • Fabrication Supply • Imports • Recycling • Recycled • Scrap recycling • Products • Losses to materials environment Recycling Recycling Post-consumption, B Sources, in Mt Consumption (use), in Mt in Mt From stocks, 0.65 Exports, 1.52 Ore leaching, 0.46 Petroleum Exports, 1.52 refining, Total agricultural uses 7.12 Nitrogen fertilizers, 0.02 Natural gas, 1.17 Total Other agricultural chemicals, 0.98 Dispersive losses, 1.01 U.S. Byproduct sulfuric supply, acid, 0.79 13.4 Phosphate fertilizers, Figure 15. Diagrams 5.70 Deposited to landfill, 10.9 showing materials flow models. A, Conceptual Imported sulfur, 2.95 Petroleum framework for a refining, 2.41 material supply model. B, Example flow model Imported sulfuric Other uses, 2.30 acid, 0.69 for sulfur in the United States. Energy and Minerals Linkages Within the U.S. Geological Survey   31 Institute of Standards and Technology, the DOE, and effort could be forward looking, it could also establish the Office of Science and Technology Policy. an historical basis (“lessons-learned”) for analysis, such as the age and decline rates of giant domestic • Action 5–2b.—Conduct targeted studies on the global fields from which a large proportion of oil is produced. flow of a select number of critical mineral materials The results from such a synthesis might also identify as identified in action 5–2a. Global materials flow new fundamental research directions, and could be analyses can be used to identify vulnerabilities in sup- ply chain nodes caused by human and natural events used to refine approaches to resource assessments. and knowledge gaps in our understanding of supply • Action 5–2d.—Enhance mechanisms for prioritizing chain complexities. Supply disruption can be defined USGS energy and minerals research, assessments, in terms of facility capacities along all segments of the and other science and information products to address chain. identified data gaps and emerging needs. For example, • Action 5–2c.—Synthesize energy resource commodity a new genetic model may be needed for a previously assessments (for example, coal, geothermal, natural unrecognized deposit type (goal 1) or geochemical gas, and oil) in support of domestic and global evalu- research may be required to trace the cycling of an ele- ations of the energy mix. Although the thrust of this ment with emerging uses (goal 2). Energy and Minerals Linkages Within the U.S. Geological Survey The USGS science strategy (U.S. Geological Survey, of USGS science are intrinsically global, and new opportuni- 2007) established a plan that recognized synergies among ties for USGS international activities likely will arise in the scientific expertise and capabilities within USGS and through next decade, underscoring the importance of foresight and partnerships, and the need for multidisciplinary approaches to planning so that the priorities of USGS, DOI, and the Nation address complex, multifaceted issues facing society. Coordi- are met (National Research Council, 2012). nation within USGS and with partners is important to fully Although not shown in this initial identification of com- understand the breadth and magnitude of interactions among mon ground, an even broader range of linkages that include energy and mineral lifecycles and air, land, soil, water, eco- many partners, such as other DOI bureaus, Federal agencies, systems services or functions, and human health from local, and State geological surveys, is acknowledged and anticipated. regional, national, and global perspectives. As one approach to leverage capabilities and expertise across The USGS energy and minerals science strategy mir- agencies, the USGS operates under a number of memoranda of rors the reality that complex societal issues demand diverse understanding (MOU) and interagency agreements. For exam- capabilities from every corner of the USGS and its partners. ple, the DOE, DOI (USGS), and EPA signed a memorandum The science actions developed here represent key components of agreement in 2012 to enhance cooperation and facilitate the of integrated studies at multiple scales. An evaluation of the development of a focused, collaborative effort to address the energy and minerals mission area goals and actions (table 3) highest priority research and development challenges associ- provides an initial identification of linkages within the USGS ated with safely and prudently developing unconventional that could serve as opportunities for leveraging expertise and capabilities. For example, most of the actions under goals 1, shale gas and tight oil resources to inform sound management 2, and 4 reflect the need for enlisting expertise across mission and policy decisions by Federal, State, tribal, and local enti- areas. The converse is also true: efforts precipitated by the ties responsible for ensuring prudent development of energy energy and minerals science strategy will contribute to other resources and protecting human health and the environment goals across the USGS. These linkages with USGS mission (Department of Energy, Department of the Interior, and Envi- areas are dynamic and responsive to the particular blend of ronmental Protection Agency, 2012). When leveraged with science a given issue demands, as noted in recent National expertise from other partners, the actions in this USGS Energy Research Council studies (2009; 2012). and Minerals Science Strategy can yield results providing a The actions in this science strategy also reflect the more comprehensive and integrated understanding of natural importance of early planning across USGS mission areas so resources and facilitate the dissemination of science, informa- that successful, timely integration of research activities can be tion, and tools to a range of audiences, including scientists, established where appropriate. As one example, many aspects cooperators, resource managers, policymakers, and the public. 32   U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals Science Strategy Table 3. U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals science strategy actions and intersections with other mission areas. [Gray-shaded rows denote actions for which the outcomes can be achieved largely through energy and minerals core expertise, capabilities, and network of partners. Red dots denote actions for which significant leveraging of expertise and capabilities from other mission areas and respective partners will be needed to fully achieve desired outcomes. USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; 3D, three-dimensional; DOI, U.S. Department of the Interior; EEZ, Exclusive Economic Zone; NMIC, National Minerals Information Center] Climate and Core Environ- Ecosys- Natural Focus area and action land use science mental Water tems hazards change systems health Goal 1. Understand fundamental earth processes that form energy and mineral resources 1–1. Geologic and tectonic framework studies: 1–1a. Map regional-scale geologic features ● 1–1b. Acquire regional-scale geophysical data ● 1–1c. Apply 3D models to areas of high resource potential ● ● ● 1–2. Evolution of energy and mineral systems: 1–2a. Investigate geologic and geochemical factors 1–2b. Conduct research on emerging energy resources ● ● 1–2c. Conduct deposit-scale studies 1–2d. Determine broad-scale controls on mineral systems ● ● ● 1–3. Frontier studies: 1–3a. Promote collection of U.S. EEZ data ● ● ● 1–3b. Expand data collection and evaluation of Alaska and ● ● ● ● ● Arctic offshore 1–3c. Construct geologic frameworks for concealed deposits Goal 2. Understand the environmental behavior of energy and mineral resources and their waste products 2–1. Fundamental studies: 2–1a. Investigate carbon sources and sinks ● ● 2–1b. Investigate perturbations to natural landscape during ● ● ● ● resource lifecycle 2–1c. Understand climatic alteration of energy and minerals ● ● ● systems 2–2. Applied investigations: 2–2a. Characterize waste streams ● ● ● 2–2b. Conduct research on deep geologic reservoirs for waste ● ● ● disposal 2–2c. Investigate environmental geochemistry of resource ● production technologies 2–2d. Expand capabilities to research renewable energy ● ● ● ● ● ● development effects 2–3. Synthesis activities: 2–3a. Create geologically based environmental models ● ● ● ● ● ● 2–3b. Enhance transfer of insights between experiments and ● ● ● system-wide studies Goal 3. Provide inventories and assessments of energy and mineral resources 3–1. Undiscovered geologically based energy resources: 3–1a. Conduct periodic assessments 3–1b. Complete uranium assessment 3–1c. Assess emerging resources 3–1d. Extend components of economic and environmental analyses ● ● ● Energy and Minerals Linkages Within the U.S. Geological Survey   33 Table 3. U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals science strategy actions and intersections with other mission areas.—Continued [Gray-shaded rows denote actions for which the outcomes can be achieved largely through energy and minerals core expertise, capabilities, and network of partners. Red dots denote actions for which significant leveraging of expertise and capabilities from other mission areas and respective partners will be needed to fully achieve desired outcomes. USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; 3D, three-dimensional; DOI, U.S. Department of the Interior; EEZ, Exclusive Economic Zone; NMIC, National Minerals Information Center] Climate and Core Environ- Ecosys- Natural Focus area and action land use science mental Water tems hazards change systems health 3–2. Discovered nonfuel mineral resources: 3–2a. Expand partnerships 3–2b. Establish a periodic review 3–2c. Expand due-diligence field studies 3–2d. Enhance scope and functionality of domestic discovered resources database 3–2e. Strengthen and expand NMIC analytical capabilities 3–3. Undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources: 3–3a. Reevaluate methodologies for undiscovered mineral resources assessments 3–3b. Develop methodologies for use in frontier regions ● Goal 4. Understand the effects of energy and mineral development on natural resources and society 4–1. Spatial analysis of energy and mineral resources occurrence and development: 4–1a. Designate liaisons and energy and minerals resource experts ● ● ● ● ● ● in USGS 4–1b. Provide information to large landscape conservation initiatives 4–1c. Develop new nationwide spatial data products ● 4–2. Explore interdisciplinary approaches for assessing effects of energy and mineral resources development: 4–2a. Identify metrics or indicators ● ● ● ● ● ● 4–2b. Develop and refine methods for incorporating metrics ● ● ● ● ● ● 4–2c. Develop methods to estimate potential land surface and ● ● ● ● ● seabed disturbance 4–2d. Assess effects of renewable energy development ● ● ● ● ● ● 4–2e. Develop decision analysis and support tools ● ● ● Goal 5. Understand the reliability and availability of energy and mineral resource supplies 5–1. Sudden disruptions affect supplies: 5–1a. 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