U.S. Department of Energy Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan

2020 Update In April 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science underwent an organizational change that included updating the name of the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The division’s new name is the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD). No changes were made to the names or scope of the division’s scientific programs. The cover of this strategic plan has been updated to reflect the name change to prevent any discontinuities for the scientific community. While the CESD name remains throughout the text, the document still reflects EESSD’s mission, vision, scientific grand challenge topics, and implementation strategy. Biological and Environmental Research Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (formerly Climate and Environmental Sciences Division) Strategic Plan 2018–2023 Prepared by the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division within the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Office of Biological and Environmental Research Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 ii U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................ iv Organization................................................................................................................................................... iv Vision and Mission......................................................................................................................................... iv Goals. .............................................................................................................................................................. iv Scientific Grand Challenges........................................................................................................................... v Chapter 1: Mission................................................................................................................................................ 2 Chapter 2: Vision and Values............................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 3: Plan Background and Purpose...................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Background............................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 The CESD 2018–2023 Strategic Plan. ................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 4: CESD Scientific Grand Challenges for 2018–2023.................................................................... 12 4.1 Integrated Water Cycle Scientific Grand Challenge. .......................................................................... 12 4.2 Biogeochemistry Scientific Grand Challenge...................................................................................... 13 4.3 High Latitudes Scientific Grand Challenge.......................................................................................... 15 4.4 Drivers and Responses in the Earth System Scientific Grand Challenge. ....................................... 17 4.5 Data-Model Integration Scientific Grand Challenge. ......................................................................... 19 Chapter 5: Implementation Strategy............................................................................................................. 22 Appendix 1: CESD Activity and Facility Descriptions.................................................................................. 26 Atmospheric Sciences.................................................................................................................................. 26 Environmental System Science................................................................................................................... 28 Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling............................................................................................ 31 Data Management........................................................................................................................................ 34 Appendix 2: References. ................................................................................................................................... 36 Appendix 3: Chapter Cover Image Descriptions and Credits................................................................... 37 Acronyms and Abbreviations..............................................................................................Inside back cover U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research iii Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Executive Summary T he Climate and Environmental Sciences Divi- Vision and Mission sion (CESD) of the Office of Biological and CESD’s vision is to develop an improved capability for Environmental Research (BER) is managed Earth system prediction on seasonal to multidecadal within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office time scales to inform the development of resilient U.S. of Science. CESD is the intellectual home for funda- energy strategies. CESD’s mission is to enhance the sea- mental research needed to address key uncertainties sonal to multidecadal predictability of the Earth system arising from the interactions and interdependencies of using long-term field experiments, DOE user facilities, the atmospheric, terrestrial, subsurface, cryospheric, modeling and simulation, uncertainty characterization, oceanic, and human-energy components of the Earth best-in-class computing, process research, and data ana- system. Using an approach to enhance system predict- lytics and management. The Division’s mission is ded- ability, CESD-supported research strives to understand icated to providing the fundamental science needed to and anticipate how environmental stressors behave inform the development and deployment of advanced within a nonlinear system. These stressors, in turn, can influence the robustness and resilience of U.S. energy solutions to the nation’s energy challenges. infrastructures. Particular emphasis also is placed on Goals understanding how natural and human-derived fac- tors contribute to variabilities and trends spanning To meet its mission, CESD developed this strategic local to global scales. By treating DOE environmental plan to articulate the Division’s goals for the period challenges as part of the Earth system, CESD also 2018–2023. Central to its mission, CESD investments addresses DOE’s unique concerns regarding energy in basic research address key uncertainties in the contaminants and wastes. The scope of CESD process understanding of Earth system components, as well research spans scales from molecular to global and as complex uncertainties that arise from the interac- durations from nanoseconds to many decades, in order tions and interdependencies of these components in for DOE to achieve its goals involving foundational the coupled Earth system. CESD also makes a special science, environment, energy, economic, and security. effort to exploit unique DOE facilities and capabilities, thus CESD has greater investments involving atmo- Organization spheric, terrestrial and computational issues, while also CESD’s research is organized around three disciplinary leveraging and coordinating across multiple National areas, each comprising specific research activities: Science and Technology Council agencies to achieve Atmospheric Sciences includes the Atmospheric CESD goals. Though following the strategy of the Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, Envi- previous plan (for the period 2012–2017), the new ronmental System Science includes the Environmen- plan focuses primarily on specific scientific questions tal Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), and Earth requiring an integrated and coordinated approach, as and Environmental Systems Modeling includes the well as the determined effort of multiple CESD pro- newly released Energy Exascale Earth System Model grams, projects, and scientific user facilities. In many (E3SM). CESD also supports the Data Management cases, the new plan leverages strategic interagency part- (DM) activity, which supports the archival of data gen- nerships and expertise to achieve major advances in erated by Earth system models and CESD-supported important areas of scientific research. Furthermore, the field experiments; the DM activity also invests in plan considers scientific needs articulated by DOE’s software and data analytics capabilities for use by the applied energy program offices as complementary to scientific community. the scientific opportunities articulated by the basic iv U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Earth system research community within DOE’s Office natural and anthropogenic interactions and feed- of Science. backs and their associated uncertainties within Earth and environmental systems. Scientific Grand Challenges 3. High Latitudes Scientific Grand Challenge. CESD’s strategic plan is framed by five scientific grand Understand and quantify the drivers, interactions, challenges focused on collaborative and integrative and feedbacks both among the high-latitude com- research across the Division. This research leverages ponents and between the high latitudes and the capabilities of BER’s scientific, computational, and user global system to reduce uncertainties and improve facilities as well as other BER community resources to achieve these scientific grand challenges. predictive understanding of high-latitude systems and their global impacts. 1. Integrated Water Cycle Scientific Grand Chal- lenge. Advance understanding of the integrated 4. Drivers and Responses in the Earth Sys- water cycle by studying relevant processes involv- tem Scientific Grand Challenge. Advance ing the atmospheric, terrestrial, oceanic, and next-generation understanding of Earth sys- human system components and their interactions tem drivers and their effects on the integrated and feedbacks across local, regional, and global Earth-energy-human system. scales, thereby improving the predictability of the 5. Data-Model Integration Scientific Grand Chal- water cycle and reducing associated uncertainties lenge. Develop a broad range of interconnected in response to short- and long-term perturbations. infrastructure capabilities and tools that support 2. Biogeochemistry Scientific Grand Challenge. the integration and management of models, exper- Advance a robust, predictive understanding of iments, and observations across a hierarchy of coupled biogeochemical processes and cycles scales and complexity to address CESD scientific across spatial and temporal scales by investigating grand challenges. U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research v Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 vi U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 1 Mission Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Terrestrial–Aquatic Interfaces Chapter 1 Mission T he mission of the U.S. Department of Energy development, construction, and operation of unique, (DOE) is to enhance the security and economic open-access scientific user facilities. The mission of growth of the United States through transforma- the Office of Biological and Environmental Research tive science, technology innovation, and market solu- (BER), within the Office of Science, is to support tions to meet U.S. energy, nuclear, and environmental fundamental research and scientific user facilities to challenges (U.S. DOE 2014). The first of DOE’s four achieve a predictive understanding of complex bio- goals focuses on science and energy and seeks to logical and environmental systems for a secure and “advance foundational science, innovate energy tech- sustainable energy future. BER research programs seek nologies, and inform data driven policies that enhance to understand the governing energy-relevant biolog- U.S. economic growth and job creation, energy secu- ical and environmental processes that extend from rity, and environmental quality….” As part of this goal, submicron to global scales, from individual molecules DOE emphasizes the need for mission-relevant science to ecosystems, and from nanosecond to multidecadal and technology that can inform the development of time scales. The unique value BER adds in support of energy infrastructure that is secure and resilient to a the DOE mission is the extension and integration of wide range of environmental and other pressures (U.S. process-level understanding of complex systems into DOE 2014). improved capabilities that, in turn, enhance predict- Basic science supports the objectives of the first goal ability over a wide range of space and time scales. BER of DOE’s strategic plan by describing and improving also guides the strategic directions and activities of understanding of environmental and other stressors three DOE scientific user facilities in support of BER that can introduce risks to infrastructures during their various lifetimes. Basic sci- CESD Mission Statement ence also is needed to design CESD’s mission is to enhance the seasonal to multidecadal predictability of the Earth and inform prediction tools, system by using long-term field experiments, DOE user facilities, modeling and simula- tion, uncertainty characterization, best-in-class computing, process research, and data so that future technolo- analytics and management to inform the development of advanced solutions to the gies can be designed and nation’s energy challenges. deployed to ensure that infrastructure (1) provides uninterrupted energy to U.S. stakeholders; (2) is science [i.e., Atmospheric Radiation Measurement affordable to public- and private-sector entities; and (ARM) User Facility, Environmental Molecular Sci- (3) will be resilient to environmental factors such ences Laboratory (EMSL), and Joint Genome Insti- as extreme weather, hydrological changes, and other tute ( JGI)]. phenomena over the multidecadal lifetimes of U.S. The Climate and Environmental Sciences Division energy systems. (CESD) is one of two BER divisions. CESD’s mis- DOE’s Office of Science provides direct support sion is to enhance the seasonal to multidecadal pre- for both fundamental scientific research and for the dictability of the “Earth system” by using long-term

2 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Chapter 1 – Workshop Summary, Purpose, and Objectives field experiments, DOE user facilities, modeling and simulation, uncertainty characterization, best-in-class computing, process research, and data analytics and management (see Fig. 1. Gulf Stream Heat Transport, this page). This mission is dedicated to provide the fundamental science needed to inform development and deployment of advanced solutions to U.S. energy challenges. Within this context, the Earth system includes atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, subsurface, cryospheric, and human-energy components. Given DOE’s mission to adequately assess Integrated energy-relevant Earth System infrastructure The integrated “Earth system” comprises a complex set of risks, CESD interacting physical, chemical, places great biological, and societal pro- emphasis on Fig. 1. Gulf Stream Heat Transport. The Gulf Stream cesses that have significant transports heat from the tropics to Europe, as shown by identifying and surface temperatures in the Model for Prediction Across coupling with the climatic and environmental systems. quantifying Scales-Ocean (MPAS-O). The divergent white point highlights sources of uncer- the Gulf Stream at 20 °C. Improving the representation of atmospheric, terrestrial, and subsurface processes in Earth tainties across system models such as MPAS-O increases the quality of the unified Earth system as a means to extend system climate model projections and informs DOE’s energy deci- sions. [Courtesy Los Alamos National Laboratory] understanding and predictability. This strategic plan addresses CESD’s mission and goals for the period 2018–2023, as framed by its five scien- tific grand challenges. These grand challenges focus on environmental stressors affect and interact with the collaborative and integrative research activities across U.S. energy system and how the combination of natural CESD that leverage the capabilities of BER’s scientific and human-derived processes lead to variabilities and user facilities, DOE’s leadership class computing facil- trends within the integrated Earth system. The scien- ities, and other BER community resources. Central tific questions involving climate and climate change to its mission, CESD investments in basic research are treated within the context of the Earth system. address key uncertainties in the understanding of Earth CESD also addresses DOE’s unique concerns regard- system components, as well as the complex uncertain- ing wastes from DOE’s legacy and ongoing energy and ties that arise from the interactions and interdependen- environmental missions. The scope of CESD process cies of these components in the coupled Earth system. research spans scales from molecular to global and This research is needed to understand and predict how durations from nanoseconds to many decades. U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 3 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018

4 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 2 Vision and Values Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Terrestrial–Aquatic Interfaces Chapter 2 Vision and Values C limate and Environmental Sciences Division • Effective use of DOE high-performance compu- (CESD) vision: An improved capability for tational capabilities and advanced mathematical Earth system prediction on seasonal to mul- methods is critical to advancing robust, predictive tidecadal time scales to inform the development of understanding and analysis of uncertainties within resilient U.S. energy strategies. the Earth system. The following fundamental values underlie CESD’s • Effective data management, including developing mission and vision: community data standards and formats and shar- ing and preserving data, will increase the pace of • Basic scientific research is the foundation for fuel- scientific discovery and ensure scientific integrity. ing future innovation and technologies to support the Department of Energy’s (DOE) mission. • Engagement with the broader U.S. and interna- tional scientific research community and coor- • A balanced portfolio of basic research includes dination with intra- and interagency partners, multi-institutional big science and smaller including the National Science and Technology discovery-focused science projects and takes Council and its subcommittees, create synergies of advantage of the complementary strengths of the activities, capabilities, and tools that accelerate the DOE national laboratories, DOE user facilities, pace and impact of scientific discovery. academic community, and broader scientific community. • Essential context, relevance, value, and quality of CESD research and facility activities are ensured • The DOE national laboratories have unique through community engagement that includes capabilities to conduct integrated, coordinated, peer reviews and DOE-sponsored workshops. and sustained research programs to address inno- vative and sometimes high-risk transdisciplinary • Coordination and regular interaction with appro- research problems. priate applied activities within DOE ensure appro- priate alignment of CESD research activities with • Scientific user facilities, long-term (e.g., decadal) the needs of DOE’s applied energy mission. field experiments, community research infra- structure, community databases, advanced Earth • Development of cutting-edge capabilities, system modeling capabilities, and analytical tools expertise, and scientific leadership is fostered enable mission-relevant Earth system science, through investments in early-career research and advance scientific discovery, and broaden the technology-development opportunities. impact of CESD-supported research. • Developing an effective predictive understanding across the multiple scales of the Earth system requires integrating observational, experimental, analysis, and modeling activities, each informing the others to advance science.

6 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 3 Plan Background and Purpose Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Chapter 3 Plan Background and Purpose 3.1 Background (6) advanced cloud and aerosol observations using F rom 2010 to 2011, the Climate and Environmen- experiment, modeling, and simulation; (7) simulation tal Sciences Division (CESD) developed a strate- and analysis of extreme events as part of a dynamic gic plan that would frame the Division’s high-level climatic, hydrological, and Earth system; (8) novel research priorities over the next 5 years (2012–2017). software and adaptive mesh technologies for system The Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Strate- modeling; (9) benchmark analysis and uncertainty gic Plan was released and published in 2012 (U.S. DOE quantification; and (10) new attention to data man- 2012). As part of that plan, CESD described a Depart- agement and cyberinfrastructure. CESD further ment of Energy (DOE) mission–relevant science strat- embraced its approach of coupling experiments and egy to support creative and innovative basic research modeling under the integrated “model­-observation- investments that focused on a vision to improve pre- experiment (ModEx) paradigm” (see Fig. 2, p. 9). dictability of climate and environmental systems. With During the past 5 years, CESD increasingly sup- implementation of the 2012 plan, CESD adopted a ported research dedicated to integrating and coupling systems approach that considered both DOE applied of various Earth system components, where both mission science needs and scientific sources of major atmospheric and oceanic modeling efforts began to uncertainty that needed to be reduced or resolved. incorporate nonhydrostatic physics and terrestrial Relations were built with federal offices engaged in ecology research activities incorporated trait-based electrical grid reliability, renewable energy, and envi- approaches and other new methodologies. Work- ronmental remediation. shops also were conducted to promote joint strategies between facilities and science programs that, in turn, Since publication of the 2012 strategic plan, new were translated into interdisciplinary and multidis- and ongoing major CESD investments and activi- ciplinary funding opportunities. During the same ties have shaped CESD’s evolving long-term vision period, the modeling of these integrated systems to enhance Earth system predictability. Examples increasingly incorporated impacts, adaptation, and of big science research investments during 2012 to vulnerability as complements to integrated assess- 2017 that were led by national laboratories included ment to more appropriately address how extreme (1) major terrestrial field projects involving perma- phenomena interact with all system components. Key frost ecology, tropical ecology, and geomorphology; collaborations with other agencies also were fostered, (2) the launch of a comprehensive Earth system most notably with the National Science Foundation model (ESM) project designed to run efficiently (NSF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- on DOE high-performance computers; (3) polar istration (NOAA), National Aeronautics and Space research involving the dynamical modeling of sea Administration (NASA), U.S. Geological Survey ice, ice sheets, and ocean-atmosphere-land interac- (USGS), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), tions; (4) above- and belowground biogeochemistry and Office of Naval Research (ONR). research exploiting new experimental manipulation studies in northern peatland ecosystems; (5) water- Given the fine spatial and temporal scales that are nec- shed-scale studies involving hydrobiogeochemistry; essary to advance predictability of modeling systems,

8 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Fig. 2. Integrated Model-Observation-Experiment (ModEx) Paradigm. CESD's ModEx approach integrates process research, which involves observations, experiments, and measurements performed in the field or laboratory, with modeling research, which simulates these same processes. This integrated loop ensures that models incorporate state-of-the-science knowledge about critical systems, and the resulting improved models can be used to guide field and laboratory research to inform future decisions. CESD partnered with DOE’s Office of Advanced Sci- With a growing interest in integrated hydrological entific Computing Research (ASCR) in developing interactions within the Earth system and recent strategies to exploit advanced software and hardware as droughts in the western United States that impact part of the “DOE exascale strategy.” At the finer spatial U.S. energy systems, CESD expanded its priorities and temporal modeling scales, other opportunities and to understand the predictability of the water cycle to priorities arose within DOE that were clear beneficia- inform understanding of future water supplies. These ries of CESD’s unique capabilities. These included, for energy-relevant needs further motivated CESD’s evo- example, the improved capability to predict extremes lution to an Earth system–centric focus. in temperatures and storms that, in turn, affect the like- lihood of blackouts and cascading failure of connected By treating its investments within an Earth system infrastructures. context, CESD became better positioned to interact U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 9 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 with a broader set of stakeholders who require basic 3.2 The CESD 2018–2023 Strategic Plan science research to address novel questions that The CESD strategic plan for the period 2018–2023 demand new CESD science and better prediction presents a bold set of high-priority CESD grand chal- capabilities. For example, questions within DOE over lenge fundamental scientific research questions that are the past few years have increasingly focused on how critical to DOE’s science, environmental, and energy variability and change within the Arctic region affect missions and that CESD is particularly well positioned energy production and pipeline security; how interan- to address. While noting that CESD research is ded- nual variability of water supplies affects terrestrial oil icated to long-term scientific challenges, potentially and gas recovery; and how extremes within the Earth extending across multiple decades, this plan focuses on system affect energy production and electric grid reli- the specific scientific questions and priorities needed ability. The science needed to improve Earth system to improve Earth system predictability over the com- predictability to address these broader questions was ing 5 to 10 years. As in the previous strategic plan, the considered in developing a revised set of scientific grand challenges of this new plan require an integrated grand challenges for CESD’s strategy spanning 2018 and coordinated approach, as well as the determined through 2023 (see Chapter 4. CESD Scientific Grand effort of multiple CESD programs, projects, and sci- Challenges for 2018–2023, p. 12). entific user facilities, and, in many cases, leveraging In November 2017, the Biological and Environmental strategic interagency and stakeholder partnerships Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) released and expertise. The new plan places greater emphasis a major report, Grand Challenges for Biological and on DOE scientific needs, yet its approach is framed by Environmental Research: Progress and Future Vision science opportunities and directions articulated by the (BERAC 2017). BERAC suggested in the report that research community. As in its previous plan, CESD CESD consider including in its future strategic invest- will emphasize the use of DOE’s unique facilities and ments the development of enhanced Earth system infrastructures. modeling capabilities that focus on extreme events, The plan’s five scientific grand challenges span data-model integration, uncertainty quantification, cutting-edge research within water-cycle, biogeo- and the DOE exascale agenda; a computational user chemistry, and high-latitude processes; drivers and facility to help drive model development and analysis; responses in the Earth system; and the development and deployment of integrated field laboratories that of advanced data-model integration frameworks for incorporate newly developed sensing technologies enhancing scientific discovery. In each case, major and address environments such as urban areas and scientific advances will serve and inform the needs of their surrounding ecosystems. While the BERAC DOE’s mission (see Chapter 4, p. 12). report emphasized challenges extending over a 20-year period (i.e., 2017–2037), CESD incorporates in its Following presentation of the research challenges, 5-year (2018–2023) strategic plan those BERAC rec- this report provides descriptions of relevant CESD ommendations as a framework for the Division’s near- activities and facilities that highlight the Division’s term challenges and priorities. scope, approaches, expertise, and efforts (see Appen- dix 1, p. 26). Also described are ongoing high-priority Moving forward, CESD’s use-inspired basic research CESD investments that are more confined to indi- will target new science that demands more sophisti- vidual programmatic disciplinary areas such as cated DOE facilities and capabilities. Meeting this new atmospheric research, environmental and terrestrial plan’s objectives will enable revolutionary scientific research, and Earth system modeling. advances that are expected to more effectively inform DOE’s evolving priorities in energy-sector resiliency and security.

10 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 4 CESD Scientific Grand Challenges for 2018–2023 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Chapter 4 CESD Scientific Grand Challenges for 2018–2023 4.1 Integrated Water Cycle Scientific co-evolve in response to short- and long-term Grand Challenge perturbations? A dvance understanding of the integrated water 5. To what extent do local-scale heterogeneities and cycle by studying relevant processes involving the anomalies, including both natural and anthro- atmospheric, terrestrial, oceanic, and human pogenic system components, drive larger­-scale system components and their interactions and feedbacks hydrological processes and phenomena, and how across local, regional, and global scales, thereby improving persistent and predictable are these interactions? the predictability of the water cycle and reducing asso- ciated uncertainties in response to short- and long-term Water is essential for a wide range of life-sustaining perturbations. human activities and is a major component underly- ing a suite of important Earth system processes and Associated Research Questions interactions that extend from local to regional to global scales. The integrated water or hydrological cycle 1. How are the frequency and intensity of hydrologi- involves the hydrology and movement of water among cal events affected by coupled, large-scale variabil- ocean, atmosphere, land, and cryosphere, as well as the ity and change within the Earth system? interactions of these components with human activ- 2. How are atmospheric moisture; cloud forma- ities including withdrawals, consumption, and diver- tion and properties; and the location, quantity, sion. Many energy systems such as fossil, nuclear, and and phase of precipitation at regional to local hydroelectric power plants depend on water availabil- scales influenced by atmospheric and surface ity, as does the growth of biofuels. Improved under- processes across a range of scales including large- standing of the processes underlying the integrated scale atmospheric motions, land-atmosphere hydrological cycle is critical for improving the pre- coupling, heat and moisture transport, dictability of water availability and quality for energy cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions, and infrastructure needs and the potential impacts of turbulence processes? extreme hydrological events on energy infrastructure and the environment (see Fig. 3. East River Watershed 3. How does the hydrological functioning of water- in Upper Colorado River Basin, p. 13). A combination sheds and river basins, including natural, managed, of natural variability and human activities affects the and engineered components, respond to changes hydrological cycle, including uses of water for agricul- in precipitation patterns, land use, vegetation ture and energy production. Today’s scientific uncer- cover, geomorphology, nutrient and contaminant tainties in predicting long-term changes in global and loading, and compounding disturbances? regional hydrological cycles and the implications for 4. How do energy, water, and land systems, which are water supplies and energy production (from local to inextricably linked across local and regional scales, regional scales) fundamentally limit the nation’s ability

12 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan understanding of (1) processes that control the details of precipitation location, type, and intensity and (2) how terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, watersheds, and river basins function as fully coupled systems in response to perturbations and other stresses on scales extending from individual storm or flood events to long-term droughts. A hierarchy of models with varying degrees of resolution and mechanistic fidelity must be used to represent the functioning of hydro- logical systems from local to global scales. Long-term observations, field experiments, and laboratory exper- iments provide a foundational basis for evaluating and improving the representation of physical processes in Fig. 3. East River Watershed in Upper Colorado River the model simulations. Ultimately, this process-based Basin. At this representative watershed, studies supported by the Subsurface Biogeochemical Research activity in the understanding of the natural and human components Environmental System Science research area are developing of the integrated water cycle is incorporated into com- and testing new approaches and tools to measure and pre- plex system models that enable hypothesis testing for dict how droughts, early snowmelt, and other perturbations impact downstream water availability and biogeochemical scientific inquiry and decision support to advance cycling at episodic to decadal time scales. [Courtesy Law- DOE’s energy and environmental missions. rence Berkeley National Laboratory] 4.2 Biogeochemistry Scientific Grand Challenge to develop sustainable energy solutions and address Advance a robust, predictive understanding of coupled environmental needs. biogeochemical processes and cycles across spatial and To advance a robust, predictive understanding of the temporal scales by investigating natural and anthropogenic integrated water cycle, the Climate and Environmental interactions and feedbacks and their associated uncertain- Sciences Division (CESD) draws from unique and ties within Earth and environmental systems. highly relevant research on cloud, aerosol, terrestrial­ Associated Research Questions ecosystem, watershed, and subsurface processes, as well as from integrated energy-Earth system mod- 1. How can biogeochemical pools and fluxes and eling across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. their associated uncertainties be better con- Synthesizing new process knowledge and innovative strained and represented in environmental and computational methods in integrated models of the Earth system models at global to local scales? human-Earth system can advance predictive capabili- 2. How can improved understanding of biogeochem- ties relevant to Department of Energy (DOE) missions ical interactions and feedbacks within the current (see Fig. 4. Balancing Global Water Availability and Earth system be used to improve projections of Use at the Basin Scale, p. 14). future environmental states? CESD fundamental research on the integrated water 3. How will compounding short-term perturbations cycle extends from local to global scales. From a global and sustained change influence biogeochemical perspective, a major goal is to better understand how cycles and impact the functioning of Earth and the hydrological cycle will evolve on seasonal to mul- environmental systems across relevant spatiotem- tidecadal time scales relevant to energy infrastructure. poral scales, and what are the associated critical From a local perspective, major goals include better thresholds of those systems? U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 13 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 critical science needs for DOE. Developing a foun- dational understanding of the transformation, pools (stocks), and fluxes (movement) of biogeochemical elements in terrestrial and subsurface environments and their coupling with hydrology will reduce key uncertain- ties in Earth and environmental sciences that have impli- cations for the environment and U.S. energy systems (see Fig. 5. Carbon and Nutrient Cycling, p. 15). Because most DOE mission areas involve human interactions with the natural Earth system, there also is a need to Fig. 4. Balancing Global Water Availability and Use at the Basin Scale. Advanced simulation capabilities, enabled integrate research to understand natural biogeochemical through the Multisector Dynamics activity in the Earth and processes and cycles with research to study the influence Environmental Systems Modeling research area, are reveal- of anthropogenic activities. Achieving this integration ing new insights into the integrated water cycle, including regional water resources and demands as well as global requires (1) field-based observational and experimental projections oriented around major river basins. [Courtesy research as well as laboratory-based research on real- iStockphoto.com] world systems and (2) incorporation of the findings and understanding from these research activities into a 4. How do natural and anthropogenic changes variety of process and predictive models that span a wide in land cover and land use affect biogeochem- range of spatial and temporal scales. ical processes and cycles, especially at critical Model complexity needs to be tailored to particular land-water-atmosphere interfaces? scales and questions. However, current land-process, 5. How do geochemical, genomic, and metabolic inter- terrestrial-ecosystem, watershed, and reactive-transport actions influence environmental system dynamics models inadequately capture the structure of the from single-measurement sites to watershed scales, land surface, coastal oceans, freshwater systems, soils, and how can improved understanding of these pro- groundwater, deeper sediments, and their interfaces. cesses and interactions be effectively incorporated These models also do not adequately represent living into environmental and Earth system models? components of the Earth system such as microbes, plants, and higher organisms. Finally, they insufficiently 6. W hat are the key environmental factors that create represent the interfaces and interactions among the and sustain biogeochemical “hot spots” and “hot physical, chemical, and biological processes that com- moments” in specific locations, and to what extent pose the interconnected Earth system. are these phenomena important at larger scales? Functional processes of the Earth system include Advancing the understanding of coupled biogeochemi- (1) emissions of biogenic aerosol precursors from soils cal processes and cycles enables DOE to address a wide and waterbodies; (2) biogeochemical reactions in soils variety of mission needs. These needs include the repre- and aquatic sediments, such as contaminant transfor- sentation and long-term prediction of the Earth system, mations; (3) interactions and cycling of organic and understanding the complexities of the energy-water-land inorganic elements such as carbon, nitrogen, iron, nexus, and understanding of nutrient availability in soils sulfur, phosphorous, and many others through the for sustainable biofuel crops. Additionally, understand- bio- and geosphere; (4) plant-microbe interactions in ing and predicting the cycling and transport of nutrients rhizospheric reduction-oxidation (redox) reactions in and DOE-relevant contaminants in surface water, soils, aquifers and soil pores; (5) reactive transport of par- and the subsurface, as well as analyzing science-based ticulates, organic matter, microbes, and contaminants; approaches for handling spent nuclear fuel storage, are (6) microbe-mineral interactions; and (7) hot spots

14 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan structure, aerosols, clouds, and their interactions under current and future conditions? 2. W hat are the critical coupled high-latitude biogeo- chemical processes at local scales that have impli- cations for the global Earth system, and how will these coupled cycles be impacted by current and future high-latitude changes and disturbances? 3. How will the polar cryosphere change under a range of potential future conditions; how does this compare to historical changes; and what are the relevant primary processes, drivers, and feedbacks Fig. 5. Carbon and Nutrient Cycling. Coarse roots, such as within the Earth system? this root mass from a soil core taken in a scrub-oak forest, often persist for long periods after tree harvest or distur- 4. To what extent are changes in high-latitude bances such as fire. Research supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science activity in the Environmental System regions driven by local versus global influences, Science research area applied ground-penetrating radar to and what are the impacts of high-latitude change image belowground plant structures to help quantify below- ground carbon pools. [Courtesy Frank Day, Old Dominion on lower-latitude systems through, for example, University] shifts in large-scale circulations? 5. W hat are the uncertainties in high latitude–driven global sea level–rise projections, and what are the associated coastal impacts, especially when com- and hot moments of disproportionately high levels of bined with extreme events and other compound- hydrobiogeochemical interactions relative to the bulk ing factors? of the environment (see Fig. 6. Biogeochemical Hot Moments, p. 16). To enable a robust understanding The largest observed changes in the Earth system are of Earth system functions and prediction of major happening in high-latitude regions. The Arctic is expe- changes to the Earth and relevant environmental riencing very dramatic changes related to thawing per- systems following perturbations or even major dis- mafrost, melting sea and land ice, and warming oceans. turbances, these and many other biogeochemical The retreating sea-ice cover in the Arctic and warmer processes need to be more completely investigated and temperatures are opening up opportunities for energy understood at their appropriate scales. exploration and shipping. For the Antarctic, several ice shelves are particularly susceptible to thinning by 4.3 High Latitudes Scientific underlying warm ocean currents, possibly leading to ice- Grand Challenge sheet destabilization and sea-level rise (see Fig. 7. Mod- Understand and quantify the drivers, interactions, and eled Ice Speed for the Antarctic Ice Sheet, p. 17). The feedbacks both among the high-latitude components and healing of the Antarctic ozone hole affects the Southern between the high latitudes and the global system to reduce Hemisphere’s atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. In uncertainties and improve predictive understanding of addition, changes in the high latitudes of both the Arctic high-latitude systems and their global impacts. and Antarctic affect the entire planet through shifts in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Both the desire Associated Research Questions for energy security and the need to better understand 1. How will the surface energy budget be impacted the influence of high-latitude changes on midlatitude by changes in high-latitude atmospheric vertical weather and climate (e.g., in the continental United U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 15 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 observing and simulating high-latitude processes remain extremely challenging, especially when consid- ering permafrost thaw and changing landscape mor- phology that complicate land-model development (see Fig. 8. Landscapes in Transition, p. 18). Furthermore, cryospheric and biogeochemical processes are highly complex at high-latitude system interfaces between, for example, land ice and ocean, land ice and atmosphere, and land and ocean. With unique atmospheric and terrestrial observa- tional investments in the high latitudes and comple- mentary internationally recognized sea-ice, land-ice, Fig. 6. Biogeochemical Hot Moments. Researchers install terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic modeling and in situ, permeable solid phase-groundwater reaction cells analysis capabilities, CESD is uniquely poised to into wells at DOE’s Rifle, Colorado, field site to investigate make advances in the understanding of high-latitude molecular-scale mechanisms governing uranium mobility in response to seasonally changing groundwater condi- systems and their feedbacks. To address scientific tions. This work is supported by the Subsurface Biogeo- challenges involving high latitudes, CESD seeks chemical Research activity in the Environmental System to strengthen and coordinate its terrestrial, atmo- Science research area. [Courtesy SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory] spheric, and modeling foci and increase interactions with other U.S. agencies and international partners. CESD’s terrestrial priority over the next 5 years will focus, more specifically, on understanding the States) highlight the paramount need to understand the evolving ecological, physical, and biogeochemical sensitivities, interactions, and feedbacks, both within interactions in permafrost and boreal systems with and between the individual components (e.g., atmo- increased emphasis on interactions with hydrology sphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land) of the Arctic and and the atmosphere. The focus on atmospheric pro- Antarctic systems and between these regions and the cesses will be to enhance understanding of changes rest of the planet. within high-latitude systems, with specific efforts to improve knowledge of surface-atmosphere interac- Although progress has been made in understanding tions, microphysics of mixed-phase clouds, and the high-latitude systems both at a component level and impacts of long-range transport versus local pro- a comprehensive system level, scientific advances in duction of absorbing aerosols as needed to project the predictability of high-latitude systems have been surface radiation budgets (see Fig. 9. Tethersonde and still are impeded by several factors. These factors Test Flight, p. 18). Implementing the new pro- include sparsity of observations, lack of process knowl- cess knowledge into ESMs with regionally refined edge and simulation of individual components and gridding capabilities for terrestrial, oceanic, and their interactions, the multiscale nature of processes, atmospheric components is expected to enable a and the lack of resolution in global and regional Earth sharper focus on regional-scale interactions, thereby system models (ESMs) in capturing the relevant reducing the model computational cost required processes and their interactions. In addition, unique to capture essential Earth system behavior while aspects of high-latitude systems continue to limit the resolving high-latitude processes that have a global ability to predict high-latitude variability and change. impact. Sensitivity analysis performed using ESMs Specifically, the largest interannual variability of the will lead to better understanding of relevant drivers, Earth system is found in high-latitude regions, yet interactions, and feedbacks and will help identify the

16 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Fig. 7. Modeled Ice Speed for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Slow-moving ice (blue and green) from the ice sheet’s interior feeds fast-moving (yellow and orange) ice streams and ice shelves that ring the continent’s margins. These margins restrain the vast body of ice behind them but are susceptible to speed up and destabilization through melting from the ocean below and atmosphere above. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice model used for this simulation is sup- ported by the Model Development activity in the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling research area. [Courtesy Los Alamos National Laboratory] next set of observations needed to further reduce the 2. How do timing, intensity, and location of drivers uncertainties in Earth system projections. interact with natural variability, and how do these affect extremes and potential tipping points across 4.4 Drivers and Responses in local, regional, and global scales? the Earth System Scientific 3. How do the hydrological cycle, biogeochemical Grand Challenge cycle, and high-latitude regions respond to specific Advance next-generation understanding of Earth system natural and anthropogenic drivers? drivers and their effects on the integrated Earth-energy- 4. How may the responses of the integrated Earth human system. system influence the accessibility, availability, location, distribution, and usage of U.S. energy Associated Research Questions supplies and connected infrastructure, as well 1. How do natural and anthropogenic short- and as critical interdependencies among the energy, long-lived drivers of the Earth system, such as water, and land systems? atmospheric aerosols and gases, clouds, land use, Understanding the processes and constituents that drive land cover, oceanic circulations, sea ice, and ice the Earth’s different meteorological regimes, as well sheets, currently interact with the coupled Earth as the accompanying dynamics within the integrated system, and how accurately can future interactions human-natural Earth system, is key to predicting Earth be predicted? system responses to these drivers and the subsequent U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 17 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 improve understanding of the extent to which spatial and temporal changes to the hydrological system, such as seasonal to decadal changes in precipitation and water availability in particular regions, are influenced by local versus large-scale phenomena. Local phenom- ena include atmospheric particles such as atmospheric particulates, as well as terrestrial influences such as changes in land use, water withdrawals, and water diversion (see Fig. 11. Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Inter- actions, p. 20). Large-scale phenomena include natural cycles of variability in the Earth system such as the El Fig. 8. Landscapes in Transition. A mechanistic under- Niño–Southern Oscillation. Resulting changes in local standing of what controls the coupled nature of hydrol- meteorology or hydrology can impact human commu- ogy, biogeochemistry, and vegetation dynamics is needed for system-wide prediction of permafrost dynamics. The nities, including demands on and availability of energy Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments–Arctic project, systems. Incorporating all these drivers and responses supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science activity in within integrated ESMs not only improves the poten- the Environmental System Science research area, seeks to understand how surface and subsurface processes and tial understanding of the interdependencies of systems, properties are interconnected across permafrost-dominated but also leads to understanding how the Earth, energy, tundra ecosystems. [Courtesy University of Alaska, Fairbanks] and human systems may respond and co-evolve based on component interdependencies. implications for the energy sector. These drivers span Responses of the Earth system to drivers impact all of a range of spatial scales, from phenomena the size of a CESD’s scientific grand challenges, and addressing this forest fire or volcanic plume to the global scale of atmo- particular grand challenge requires that DOE capa- spheric waves and oceanic currents, and temporal scales bilities and infrastructures be readily available to the from hours to decades. The multiscale nature of these community. Specifically, CESD will prioritize research drivers is complicated by the fact that the Earth system objectives to (1) observe atmospheric, hydrological, has teleconnections—changes in one part of the Earth system in one location can impact other parts of the system in other locations. Further complications include the interactions between human activities and Earth system natural variability and trends. Additionally, many interactions within the Earth system are nonlinear, so changes in timing, intensity, or location of a driver may interact in unexpected ways with natural variability and trends to produce extreme events (see Fig. 10. Sea Sur- face Temperature Change, p. 19). A major challenge facing the science community is to understand the relative importance of local versus Fig. 9. Tethersonde Test Flight. Tethersondes, like this large-scale dynamics, as well as natural versus contin- one, are used to collect atmospheric measurements at the uously evolving anthropogenic systems and drivers Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s mobile observatory at Oliktok Point, Alaska. [Courtesy ARM of scale-dependent meteorological, climatic, and User Facility] other system phenomena. One example is the need to

18 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Chapter 3 – Processes Across Watersheds to Coasts and terrestrial systems over sufficient time and space to record fluctuations in both drivers and major Earth system dynamics; (2) implement these component systems into models of various scales to study pro- cesses, feedbacks, and responses; and (3) perform modeling and statistical analysis to isolate the roles of drivers in producing responses at various levels within the integrated system hierarchy. The latter is essential for understanding nonlinear characteristics within the integrated Earth system. 4.5 Data-Model Integration Scientific Grand Challenge Develop a broad range of interconnected infrastructure capabilities and tools that support the integration and management of models, experiments, and observations across a hierarchy of scales and complexity to address Fig. 10. Sea Surface Temperature Change. The high­ CESD scientific grand challenges. resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulates the strongest storms with surface winds exceed- ing 150 miles per hour, such as hurricanes that leave Associated Research Goals cold wakes 2–4 °C cooler than their surrounding waters. 1. Provide an advanced and innovative cyberin- This simulation represents how sea surface temperature changes evolve as a hurricane (seen here approaching the frastructure for archiving, managing, analyzing, U.S. East Coast) moves across the Atlantic and how the and visualizing experimental, observational, and resultant cold wake affects subsequent intensification of the next hurricane. [Courtesy Los Alamos National Laboratory] model data (and their associated metadata) that enables scientists to integrate CESD-generated data across projects, scales, and disciplines to across a range of temporal and spatial scales and address CESD’s scientific grand challenges. complexity to address CESD’s scientific grand 2. Develop and use innovative computational tools, challenges. testbeds, benchmarks, diagnostics, and metrics, A modern and effective cyberinfrastructure for as well as data at process and global scales, to eval- archiving, managing, analyzing, and visualizing exper- uate and validate models and to characterize and understand sources of uncertainty in both obser- imental, observational, and model-generated data is vations and model simulations. critical for supporting scientific investigation of Earth system processes. Such a cyberinfrastructure will 3. Enhance efforts to ensure that the results of exper- enable CESD to strategically manage the large vol- iments and observations are used to inform model umes and diversity of data from CESD-supported user development and, conversely, that model outputs facilities, community capabilities, measurement sites, and simulations are used to guide the design of field campaigns, and individual experiments. Lever- field experiments and new observational efforts to aging CESD’s existing data infrastructure, developing address critical knowledge gaps. enhanced open-source software and capabilities for 4. Develop a scalable and adaptable framework that incorporating observational and experimental data enables improved compatibility, integration, and into CESD-supported models, and making effective interoperability of a hierarchical suite of models use of DOE’s high-performance computing facilities U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 19 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 in predictability (see Fig. 12. Jet Stream Visualization, this page). Such techniques include more robust meth- odologies to quantify uncertainty; more sophisticated approaches involving adaptive grids, instrument sim- ulators, data assimilation, and efficient input/output (I/O) methods; and improved methods for use of data for model initialization. CESD will continue to develop and support innovative testbeds, diagnostics, and metrics for evaluating models with observational and experimental data. CESD also will explore the use Fig. 11. Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Interactions. The of models to improve collection of observational data Integrated Cloud, Land-Surface, and Aerosol System Study through techniques such as Observation System Sim- (ICLASS), supported by the Atmospheric System Research ulation Experiments (OSSEs) and analysis of model activity, relies heavily on observational datasets being collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement uncertainty to identify specific regions or processes for (ARM) User Facility’s Southern Great Plains site. This project which more data are needed. is designed to understand and model key interactions among clouds, aerosols, and the land surface. [Courtesy The cyberinfrastructure framework will improve ARM User Facility] consistency and compatibility across the hierarchy of models used by CESD scientists through integration of modern software practices including increased will better equip the scientific community to address modularity and use of common code libraries, while CESD’s scientific grand challenges and enable break- moving toward a vision of interoperability across a throughs at the frontiers of Earth system science. range of models. Consistency across models of dif- The data needed for effective Earth system research ferent scales and complexity will enable scientists to to better understand climatic and environmental vari- more easily inform simpler models with more complex abilities and change over multiple scales continue to ones, add higher resolution or more detailed process increase, both in volume and complexity. To effectively understanding for simulations of particular regions or use and steward this information, strong data manage- phenomena, and couple models across disciplines as ment practices including quality control, uncertainty needed to address critical science questions. characterization, comprehensive metadata, standard- ization, and discoverability are critical. Scalable open- source software for advanced analysis techniques such as data mining, machine learning, pattern scaling, and visualization will enable scientific discovery. Advanced workflows will enable the reproducibility of research results and simulations and the ability to easily apply new techniques to existing datasets. Digital object identifiers (DOIs) for datasets and development of new tools and techniques for tracking data metrics will illustrate the scientific impact of CESD data. Fig. 12. Jet Stream Visualization. An interactive visualiza- tion of the jet stream (zonal wind velocity) using combined A key goal of CESD’s cyberinfrastructure development isosurface, slice, and volume renderers in vcs3D, the visual- is to use innovative computational techniques to bet- ization component of Community Data Analysis Tools (CDAT) ter enable the coupling of simulation, observational, supported by DOE and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). [Courtesy Thomas Maxwell, NASA and experimental data to support process science, Center for Climate Simulation, Goddard Space Flight Center] evaluation of model simulations, and improvements

20 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 5 Implementation Strategy Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Chapter 5 Implementation Strategy T he vision of the Climate and Environmental Sci- discovery. Even though this plan covers 5 years, CESD ences Division (CESD) is an improved capability anticipates updating it periodically, based on scientific for Earth system prediction across seasonal to discoveries, new technical capabilities, and collabora- multidecadal time scales to inform the development tive opportunities that are currently unknown. There- of resilient U.S. energy strategies. Complementing this fore, CESD expects the plan to be dynamic, revisiting it vision, the CESD mission is to enhance this multiscale every few years to evaluate progress and timeliness, as temporal predictability of the Earth system using long- well as presenting opportunities for re-direction. term field experiments, Department of Energy (DOE) Furthermore, the ambition level for the grand chal- user facilities, modeling and simulation, uncertainty lenges is sufficiently bold that no single program or characterization, best-in-class computing, process agency can comprehensively address the plan’s tough research, and data analytics and management to inform scientific questions without significant coordination the development of advanced solutions to U.S. energy and collaboration involving multiple agencies. For challenges. The CESD vision and mission, while being example, CESD’s ambitions to advance the science science centric, are designed to inform applied science of predictability on topics involving ocean dynamics, needs that address the mission and national security sea ice, ice, and ice sheets will require data gathered challenges across DOE. by other agencies such as the National Aeronautics As part of this strategy, core research projects supported and Space Administration (NASA), National Oce- by CESD and carried out by national laboratories anic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. and universities will, therefore, become increasingly Geological Survey (USGS), and National Science complex, interdisciplinary, and collaborative to more Foundation (NSF). Joint funding of solicitations with rapidly advance the relevant science. The integrated these agencies is a potential avenue by which to lever- model-observation-experiment paradigm (ModEx; see age expertise and capabilities, and it also allows a more Fig. 2, p. 9) that was established in CESD’s previous robust framework to reduce redundancy and maximize strategic plan is strengthened in this new plan. The 2018 scientific output in support of multiple agency goals. plan’s scientific focus emphasizes the need to under- In particular, emerging efforts across multiple agencies stand system nonlinearities such as thresholds and to advance understanding of the water cycle, including tipping points, as well as potential system interdepen- groundwater and the terrestrial-aquatic interface, will dencies. Because of this emphasis, CESD will prioritize require coordination across modeling, data, and data assimilation disciplines at agencies including USGS, investments that can lead to improved scale-aware, pro- NOAA, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Department cess-level understanding over time horizons that extend of Homeland Security, NSF, and Army Corps of Engi- from the smallest-scale biogeochemical interactions to neers. Without these interagency collaborations, DOE interdecadal oscillations acting on oceans, the atmo- would not be able to easily achieve the new scientific sphere, and continents on the largest scale. advancements and capabilities that the nation so des- The five scientific grand challenges framing this strat- perately needs. Other agencies will similarly achieve egy are sufficiently difficult to demand decadal-scale their goals more efficiently and cost-effectively through research efforts to make significant advancement and these collaborations.

22 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Fig. 13. Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) Project. Experimental enclosures pro- vide warming from the tree tops to the deep soil for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science-supported SPRUCE project. SPRUCE is an ecosystem-scale manipulation study to assess the response of northern peatland ecosystems to increases in temperature and exposures to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. [Courtesy Oak Ridge National Laboratory] The paradigm governing CESD’s approach to imple- as academic hubs for the community and emphasize an mentation of this 2018–2023 strategic plan will con- integrated, team-based approach to advance challenging tinue to embrace the coupled ModEx template that was multidisciplinary research that, in turn, exploits assets, implemented during the past 5 years. With ModEx, capabilities, and facilities (e.g., Atmospheric Radiation field experiments will be organized based partly on defi- Measurement User Facility, Environmental Molecular ciencies in model systems, and new knowledge gained Sciences Laboratory, data, and computing) at par- from observational science will be rapidly incorporated ticipating DOE national laboratories. SFAs and their into improved predictive capabilities. The Division scientific teams also will be expected to demonstrate anticipates that its continued commitment to the that they continually tap into the best ideas across the ModEx paradigm, together with increased attention to scientific community. To complement these core labo- data and cyberinfrastructure developments, will enable ratory activities, CESD will continue to support smaller, CESD to shorten the time between discovery and yet focused research efforts at universities and other societal benefit, thus increasing the value of science to institutions. Other academic research will continue to stakeholders. be supported through targeted Funding Opportunity Announcements (FOAs) and Cooperative Agreements This strategic plan’s implementation requires careful (CAs) that seek high-reward projects, which also may investments at DOE national laboratories as well as have high risk, that often align with or complement the academic institutions. CESD views the national lab- longer-term national laboratory investments. CESD oratories as intellectual hubs and integrators of DOE will increasingly align priorities within both laboratory scientific investments. CESD’s investments in the lab- and university communities to foster long-term growth oratories will continue to be dominated by long-term for CESD science, thus meeting DOE’s mission and funding via the Science Focus Areas (SFAs) and long- national security challenges. term field experiments (see Fig. 13. Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments Project, Addressing the scientific grand challenges described in this page). As in the past, SFAs will continue to serve Chapter 4 (see p. 12) requires careful coordination of U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 23 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 research portfolios and partnerships. Coordination of and entrain the best ideas from the community via this multidisciplinary and multi-institutional approach workshops, town halls, and conferences. These com- to science is a difficult but recognized strength of DOE munity outreach efforts are critical for identifying key and CESD. CESD’s scientific business model strives research priorities within CESD’s scientific grand chal- to build long-term, integrated research activities that lenges. On the federal level, CESD also will maintain a benefit from the capabilities at the national laborato- significant DOE presence within the relevant National ries in managing innovative, team-based projects and Science and Technology Council subcommittees, supplement that expertise with focused activities and such as the U.S. Global Change Research Program, to expertise from the academic research community. The exchange information, coordinate strategies, and pro- laboratories increasingly will be expected to propose mote collaborative arrangements. and lead dedicated long-term projects, whereas the While the Division’s managing organization, the DOE academics-based efforts will provide short-term tar- Office of Science, does not directly invest in education, geted exploration of scientific issues, often addressing CESD will continue to strongly endorse the entrain- research questions that complement national laboratory ment of students and postdoctoral researchers as part research. Examples of successful multi-institutional of its university- and laboratory-funded projects and scientific coordination that started in recent years facilities. In addition, CESD will continue to participate include the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the DOE Office of Science Early Career and Grad- (NGEE) in the Arctic and tropics, Energy Exascale uate Student Research programs on topics in which Earth System Model (E3SM) project, and Subsurface the Division anticipates growth during the upcoming Biogeochemical Research SFAs. These examples have years. CESD also will maintain a strong commitment to resulted in multifaceted research that can exploit ideas diversity to achieve the goals outlined throughout this and talent across the scientific community, meeting strategic plan. CESD’s long-term vision and research objectives. Addi- tionally, CESD will continue to embrace the need for CESD is excited about its new strategic plan. With a set open-source, community cyberinfrastructure frame- of bold scientific research challenges and an approach works that, in turn, support a broad range of programs to more rapidly assimilate new scientific research into and projects. Ultimately, this approach is expected to more sophisticated predictive capabilities, the Division increasingly accelerate innovation and efficiency, as well not only is committed to advancing basic science, but as produce new science that will more rapidly advance also is dedicated to building and enhancing the scien- system predictive capabilities. tific careers of theoreticians, experimentalists, and mod- elers participating in the CESD community. To promote CESD’s ambition to achieve challenging science, the Division will continue to regularly solicit

24 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research Appendices Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018

Appendix 1 CESD Activity and Facility Descriptions T he Climate and Environmental Sciences Divi- sion (CESD) of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Sci- ence, is organized around three disciplinary areas: atmospheric sciences, environmental sciences, and modeling. User facilities are included as part of the disciplinary studies. In addition to these areas, the Data Management activity supports the full breadth of CESD's research investments. Atmospheric Sciences Atmospheric Sciences research supported by CESD comprises the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Fig. 14. Marine Cloud Drizzle. A drizzling marine stratocu- activity and its companion Atmospheric Radiation mulus cloud over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Marine low Measurement (ARM) User Facility. The goal of the clouds represent one of the largest uncertainties and most ASR activity is to improve understanding of key cloud, important feedback factors in current-generation climate models. [Courtesy ARM User Facility] aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, especially processes that limit the predictive of these areas, ASR is organized into four working ability of regional and global models (see Fig. 14. groups that focus on objectives in their respective Marine Cloud Drizzle, this page). For the most part, research areas. ASR investments use ARM’s measurements of radia- tion, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, thermodynamics, Aerosol Processes Working Group: Seeks to turbulence, and state variables. ARM’s continuous improve the understanding of processes governing observational datasets are supplemented with pro- the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric cess models, laboratory studies, and shorter-duration particles and their chemical, microphysical, and optical ground-based and airborne field campaigns to target properties. specific atmospheric processes in different locations Warm Boundary Layer Processes Working Group: and across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Seeks to improve understanding and model repre- sentation of processes controlling the structural and Atmospheric System Research radiative properties of clouds, aerosols, and their inter- ASR has four priority research areas that correspond to actions with the underlying surface in the lowest few atmospheric regimes with large uncertainties in Earth kilometers of the atmosphere. system prediction: aerosol processes, warm boundary layer processes, convective processes, and high-latitude Convective Processes Working Group: Seeks to processes. To better connect research teams working improve the understanding and model representation on the processes and process interactions within each of convective cloud processes and properties including 26 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan cloud cover, precipitation, life cycle, dynamics, and microphysics over a range of spatial scales. High-Latitude Processes Working Group: Seeks to improve understanding and model representation of cloud, aerosol, and surface processes controlling the surface energy budgets in northern and southern high-latitude regions. ASR-supported research results are incorporated into Earth system models (ESMs) supported by CESD both to understand the processes that govern atmo- spheric components and to improve ESM predictions of these processes. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility The ARM facility, a DOE Office of Science user facil- ity, provides the scientific research community with Fig. 15. Radar Row. In 2016, the ARM Southern Great Plains strategically located in situ and remote-sensing obser- site reconfiguration took another step toward completion vatories to improve the understanding and representa- with the Raman lidar’s reinstallation near the scanning radars, commonly referred to as ARM’s radar row. [Courtesy tion of relevant atmospheric processes in ESMs. ARM User Facility] The ARM facility consists of three fixed observation sites; three mobile observatories; an aerial observation component; and infrastructure to collect, process, energy balance. Some observatories also contain and deliver data to the research community. The three co-located instrumentation for studying the impacts of fixed sites are located in meteorologically distinct loca- land-atmosphere interactions on aerosols and clouds. tions to sample continental and marine conditions in ARM measurements are made at high temporal resolu- midlatitude and Arctic environments [i.e., U.S. South- tion and over extended time periods, providing statisti- ern Great Plains (see Fig. 15. Radar Row, this page), cally robust sampling of many different meteorological the north slope of Alaska, and the Azores]. ARM conditions. The ARM facility is continually updating also has three mobile facilities that can be used in its instrumentation and measurement strategies to pro- variable-duration experiments across the Earth. ARM’s vide the best data to the community. aerial component complements the ground-based ASR and ARM priorities for the next 5 years include: observations by providing information on spatial vari- ability as well as detailed information on aerosol and 1. Coupling ARM observations and high-resolution cloud microphysical properties that can be obtained atmospheric models to accelerate the application only through in situ measurements. of ARM observations for understanding key atmo- spheric processes. Each of ARM’s fixed and mobile observatories contains a comprehensive set of cutting-edge, 2. Focusing on critical high-latitude aerosol and remote-sensing in situ instruments for measuring cloud processes through analysis and modeling (1) the physical and radiative properties of aero- projects leveraging targeted ARM measurements sols, clouds, and precipitation; (2) the atmospheric at the fixed site at Barrow, Alaska; the mobile state; and (3) detailed components of the surface observatory deployment at Oliktok Point, U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 27 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Alaska; and two ship-borne mobile observatory ESMs and process models, and relevant to DOE’s mis- deployments in the Southern Ocean and central sion needs. Arctic Ocean. An important ESS focus area seeks to understand how 3. Enhancing ARM’s aerial capabilities including watersheds function as complex hydrobiogeochemical upgrades for an unmanned aerial system and systems and how these systems respond to perturba- tethered balloon systems, as well as replacement tions (see Fig. 16. Flow Simulation Models, p. 29). of the current G-1 aircraft, to enable critical in situ Predictive understanding of the interactions between observations of the spatially variable structure of biogeochemical processes and hydrology will enable the atmosphere, aerosols, and clouds. the quantification of watershed responses to a range of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Thereby, this 4. Developing data products, analysis tools, and knowledge will enhance water and energy security by computational capabilities that facilitate the scien- reducing the uncertainty in assessing the cost, waste, tific community’s use of cutting-edge ARM instru- and environmental impacts of energy production, use, ments, such as scanning cloud radars. and disposition. This integrated hydrobiogeochemi- cal perspective is particularly important for assessing 5. Integrated studies of the key aerosol, boundary­ the full extent of challenges posed by DOE’s per- layer, and convective processes driving aerosol­ sistent contaminant plume issues and for developing cloud-precipitation-surface-radiation interactions approaches to manage them. in continental, marine, and high-latitude environments. ESS has several current research emphases: Environmental System Science 1. Understanding the role of disturbances in altering ecosystem functions or influencing Earth or envi- The goal of Environmental System Science (ESS) is to ronmental system forcing. advance a robust, predictive understanding of the set of interdependent physical, biogeochemical, ecologi- 2. Gaining a mechanistic understanding of the role of cal, hydrological, and geomorphological processes for belowground processes (e.g., microbiology, hydro­ use in ESMs and local-scale models. biogeochemistry, root or rhizosphere, and soil processes) in the terrestrial carbon and relevant ESS uses a systems approach to understand surface and biogeochemical cycles and their coupled feed- subsurface ecosystems over multiple scales that can backs to the Earth and environmental systems. be represented in models [e.g., single-process models, system models, and DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth Sys- 3. Supporting large-scale coupled modeling and tem Model (E3SM)]. This emphasis on the capture of process research projects as well as large-scale, advanced understanding in models has two goals. First, long-term ecosystem manipulations to understand it seeks to improve the representation of these ecosys- environmental variability and response to change. tem processes in coupled models, thereby increasing 4. Expanding emphasis on the Arctic and boreal eco- the sophistication of the projections from those models. systems and the role of their critical biogeochemi- Next, it exercises those models and compares the results cal stocks and fluxes in a changing environment. against observations or other datasets to identify critical uncertainties that can inform future research directions. 5. Addressing key relevant ecological and biogeochem- ical gaps in the understanding of terrestrial-aquatic The ESS research portfolio focuses on terrestrial eco- interfaces at local to global scales. systems and processes that are regionally and globally important, climatically or environmentally sensitive, 6. Analyzing long-term ecosystem observational comparatively understudied or underrepresented in records to inform and evaluate models. 28 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan Fig. 16. Flow Simulation Models. Scientists seek to determine how perturbations (e.g., floods, drought, and early snow- melt) to mountainous watersheds affect the downstream delivery of water, nutrients, carbon, and metals over seasonal to decadal time scales through the development and testing of scale-adaptive models. [Courtesy Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory] 7. Quantifying and predicting the mechanisms by 11. Translating predictive understanding of watershed which hydrology drives fine-scale biogeochemical function and evolution to underpin environmental processes and the exchange of water in coupled and energy strategies. surface-subsurface systems. 12. Encouraging exploratory research addressing pre- 8. Quantifying how biological behavior and feed- viously unrecognized or innovative topics. backs and abiotic-biotic interactions leading to molecular transformations influence mobility, ESS seeks to connect its projects closely to other transformation, fluxes, cycling, and fate of key research activities within CESD, across BER, and in nutrients, carbon, inorganic elements, and legacy coordination or collaboration with other federal agen- DOE contaminants. cies. ESS activities will increase coordination with CESD’s modeling activities by coordinating research 9. Translating information across relevant molecular solicitations and jointly funding projects. Examples of to watershed scales. such coordination include Next-Generation Ecosystem 10. Identifying, quantifying, and predicting watershed Experiments (NGEE), E3SM co-development, Inter- responses to natural and anthropogenic perturba- national Land Model Benchmark project (ILAMB), tions and shifts to new states. Interoperable Design of Extreme-scale Application U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 29 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 environmental, and energy challenges. EMSL provides scientists with access to a wide range of premier instru- ments for experimental research, as well as the capacity computing and data analytics that enable users to validate simulations and conduct model-driven experi- mentation across a range of temporal and spatial scales (see Fig. 17. NanoSIMS Instrument, this page). EMSL is strategically aligned with the DOE mission to ensure the security and prosperity of the United States by enabling transformative science and technol- ogy development. EMSL also supports the Office of Science and BER priorities to understand natural and Fig. 17. NanoSIMS Instrument. Supporting studies in atmo- anthropogenic inputs to Earth and its environmental spheric science, biology, geochemistry, materials science, system processes, improve predictions of key envi- and nanoparticulates, EMSL’s nanoSIMS instrument is a ronmental and atmospheric processes, and obtain a new-generation ion microprobe that extends secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) analysis to extremely small areas systems-level understanding of how genomic informa- or volumes while maintaining extremely high sensitivity at tion is translated into functional capabilities of living high mass resolution. [Courtesy EMSL] systems. User science at EMSL is driven by science themes that reflect Office of Science and BER strategic directions and EMSL’s scientific expertise. Software (IDEAS) project, hydrology modeling frame- EMSL provides the community with access to sci- works, and land-atmosphere measurements. In addition, entists and capabilities for microscopy, tomography, ESS management will, in adhering to the 2018 strategic spectroscopy, spectrometry, sensing, cell culture, plan, forge stronger programmatic coordination with sequencing, elemental detection and deposition, and other CESD user research areas [e.g., Data Management other analyses. It also makes available capacity comput- and the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory ing and associated software codes for modeling atomic (EMSL) user facility]; ESS also will increase coordina- and molecular chemistry, molecular and structural tion with the Genomic Science Program (within BER’s dynamics, metabolic processes, reactive transport, and Biological Systems Science Division). continuum processes. EMSL maintains premier exper- ESS will reinforce its historical coordination with imental capabilities and advances scientific techniques DOE priorities involving environmental manage- through procurements and internal design-and-build ment and expand its engagement with other agencies projects that result in new instruments and significantly involved in the modeling of hydrological and ecolog- enhance existing capabilities. EMSL scientists create, ical systems (e.g., National Oceanic and Atmospheric make use of, and enhance open-source computational Administration and U.S. Geological Survey). codes to meet their evolving computational needs. EMSL collaborations enable users to obtain insights Environmental Molecular Sciences into the fundamental mechanisms that influence bio- Laboratory logical and environmental system science. These areas EMSL is a DOE Office of Science user facility located include elemental and nutrient cycling and transport at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, in soils, groundwater, watersheds, and terrestrial envi- Washington. EMSL advances discovery and mech- ronments; land-atmosphere interactions and aerosol anistic understanding at the molecular to mesoscale particle formation, evolution, and atmospheric trans- of biological, chemical, and physical processes and port; rhizospheric processes; microbial, mineral, and interactions that underpin systems-level biological, contaminant interactions; intracellular interactions 30 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan and metabolism in bacteria, archaea, fungi, and plants; about the evolving Earth system, so that, for exam- microbial, fungal, and plant community interactions; ple, energy assets and infrastructures remain robust and biodesign for bioenergy. throughout their lifetimes. Key examples of critical Earth system information supporting the DOE mis- EMSL priorities for the next 5 years include: sion include projections of water availability, drought 1. Understanding the cycling, transformation, and incidence and persistence, temperature extremes transport of critical biogeochemical elements such as prolonged heat stress, probability of storms, (e.g., carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, potassium, manga- opening of the Arctic Ocean, and convolved sea-level nese, iron, and calcium), water, contaminants, par- and storm-surge interactions with coastal regions. To ticulates, and other complexes and materials. provide this information, considerable effort is needed to develop optimum-fidelity Earth system simulations, 2. Understanding biological processes, interactions, with suitably accurate representations of atmospheric and signaling within microbial (i.e., archaea, bacte- dynamics, clouds and chemistry, ocean circulation and ria, and algae), fungal, and plant cells; among cells biogeochemistry, land biogeochemistry and hydrology, in communities; and between cellular membrane sea ice and dynamic land ice, and in each case including surfaces and their local hydrobiogeochemical elements of human activities that affect these systems environment. such as water management and land use. 3. Investigating how microbial, geochemical, and EESM uses the mathematical and computational physical interactions enable “hot spots” and “hot expertise within DOE laboratories, often in part- moments” of biological activity that influence nership with academia. Together, laboratory and Earth system processes and dynamics and con- university researchers coordinate and collaborate taminant transformations and transport. to produce more creative insights and innovations to explain complex phenomena. These researchers 4. Characterizing the Earth system’s fundamental employ, for example, efficient, accurate, and advanced biogeochemical, hydrological, microbial, vegeta- algorithms for Earth system processes; improved tive, and ecological processes and their interfaces methods for model initialization; optimal compo- and interactions, from molecular to mesoscale. nent coupling and uncertainty of system simulation; 5. Incorporating the physical, chemical, and biolog- and scale-aware climate projections. A major goal is ical structural components of the living Earth sys- to optimize Earth system codes to run efficiently on tem and their mechanistic interactions, kinetics, DOE’s best-in-class high-performance supercomput- and other functional information into appropriate ers, using modern and sustainable software and work- mechanistic and multiscale models. flows and providing accessibility to high-resolution, coupled Earth system simulation capability for energy Earth and Environmental and related sector requirements. Systems Modeling Central to the EESM activity is the Energy Exascale The goal of Earth and Environmental Systems Earth System Model (E3SM) project, launched Modeling (EESM) is to simulate and understand by BER in 2014 and released for open scientific DOE-relevant predictability of the Earth system by research in April 2018. The E3SM project team describing processes and process interactions over mul- is dedicated to the development of an efficient, tiple temporal and spatial scales. EESM investments high-resolution Earth system model that runs on focus on model development, model analysis, and DOE high-performance computers, simulating the understanding of the role of multisector interactions near-term past (e.g., for model validation) and future with the physical-human system. The vision for EESM (e.g., 3 to 4 decades) in support of DOE science is to provide DOE with the best possible information and DOE’s mission. The E3SM project designs and U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 31 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 Fig. 18. Coupled Ocean–Sea Ice Simulation. Time-averaged, column-integrated ocean speed (m/s) from a global, high­ resolution, coupled ocean–sea ice simulation that includes ocean circulation under Antarctic ice shelves. This unique E3SM capability is being used to better understand and explore the causes and effects of increased submarine melting of Antarctic ice shelves in the context of sea-level rise from ice sheets. [Courtesy Los Alamos National Laboratory] performs high-resolution Earth system simulations, Given that no single modeling approach can adequately targeting the research community’s more challeng- represent all observed behaviors of the Earth system, ing science questions, such as those involving water EESM also invests in the use of hierarchical models cycle science, cloud-aerosol interactions, ice-sheet ranging from the most complex high-resolution climate physics and dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, models (e.g., E3SM) to superparametrized models ocean-eddy dynamics, and the interdependence of using nonhydrostatic physics and land use–sector low-frequency variability and extreme weather (see models that incorporate changing landscapes. EESM Fig. 18. Coupled Ocean–Sea Ice Simulation, this also uses idealized configurations of complex models page). Other EESM-supported activities comple- and reduced-complexity models for hypothesis testing. ment and enhance E3SM, including the development Configuring, diagnosing, and evaluating the complex of future-generation E3SM capabilities within the behavior of models through systematic comparison Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing with available observations represent core capability (SciDAC) activity, which is a partnership with BER investments that are critical to CESD’s strategy. and DOE’s Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR), and supporting collaborative and Coordinated with and complementing the E3SM capa- community codes that are developed and used by bility are research investments involving physical sys- multiple climate and weather groups. tem interactions with energy, water, and other land-use 32 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan over various temporal and spatial scales. This approach involves research to probe and understand the phys- ical, chemical, and biological drivers and feedbacks acting both within and between the atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, cryospheric, and human compo- nents. Analysis takes the form of simulation using multiple model types and the use of novel diagnostic and machine-learning techniques. The role of clouds, biogeochemistry, extreme statistics, and low-frequency variability are used to explore causes of variability and change, as well as the uncertainties, in regions of inter- est to both science and DOE. EESM strategic goals for the coming decade include: 1. Ongoing development of the high-resolution, Fig. 19. Collaborative Modeling Research. Scientists supported by the Multisector Dynamics activity in the EESM regionally refined E3SM with advanced software research area are discovering the potential implications of and workflows to run efficiently on continually Earth system changes on land use, bioenergy production, advancing computational architectures. and agricultural yields. [Courtesy DOE Great Lakes Bioen- ergy Research Center] 2. Ongoing development of scale-aware atmospheric physics parameterizations based on ARM and other data for use in next-generation large eddy sectors. More specifically, multisector analysis strives simulations and both regional and global Earth to advance scientific understanding of the complex system models. interactions, interdependencies, and co-evolutionary 3. Continued development of energy, water, agricul- pathways within the human-Earth system, including ture, and other sector models as part of regional nonlinear system behaviors, the potential for cascading and global Earth system models, including E3SM, failures among sectors and infrastructures, and feed- to analyze co-evolution and sector interdepen- backs within the coupled system. Particular emphasis dencies in response to extreme phenomena and is placed on understanding the energy-water-land recovery. nexus at regional and subregional scales that, in turn, 4. Development of advanced and efficient methods incorporates elements of land-use change, socioeco- for characterizing how Earth system uncertainty nomic evolution, and decision theory (see Fig. 19. Col- affects uncertainty in the projected changes for the laborative Modeling Research, this page). A particular coupled system. focus includes model development and improvements, which can be used to understand how extreme events 5. Optimization of observational requirements influence the physical, biogeochemical, and multisec- needed for global Earth system model calibra- tor components of the Earth system, as well as how the tion, bias-reduction, and effective high-resolution component interactions can influence future extremes. initialization. Because variability and change within the Earth system 6. Regionally refined versions of E3SM for areas of are highly nonlinear and regionally dependent, the particular interest to CESD science and the DOE EESM activity has developed a multifaceted, multisys- mission, including polar regions, coastal regions, tems approach to understanding how the system works and the United States. U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 33 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 activity supports the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and ESS Data Infrastructure for a Virtual Eco- system (ESS-DIVE; see Fig. 20. ESS-DIVE, this page). A general goal of this activity is to develop and make available to the community novel, scale-aware visual- ization and analysis methods involving observational and model-generated data. The DM activity also pri- oritizes the further development of tools to quantify uncertainty and adapt to different modeling frame- works that will enable integrated analysis and compar- ison of data from multiple sources and across variable experimental conditions. The massive volumes of data and the demand for data security require a federated data archiving and dissemination construct. Short- term goals are to develop user-focused publication tools, using an open-source scripting approach, that are required to organize, manipulate, and publish data; design visualization and analytics tools by lever- aging existing community capabilities and interfaces Fig. 20. Environmental System Science-Data Infrastruc- that allow multiscale data analytics and model inte- ture for a Virtual Ecosystem (ESS-DIVE). The ESS-DIVE long-term vision is to provide a data archive that enables gration; and demonstrate capabilities within existing ESS research through community engagement. Key: DOI, federated constructs. digital object identifier. [Courtesy Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory] While CESD supports many activities with integrated experimental and computational functions, dramatic improvements in technologies and analytic method- ologies during recent years have shifted the bottleneck 7. Improved understanding of the dynamics govern- in scientific productivity from data production to new ing precursors and evolution of extreme events opportunities and challenges in data interpretation and their relationships to teleconnections. and visualization. For example, novel computational 8. Improved representation of land systems that strategies for integration and interpretation of infor- incorporate application-appropriate detail of hyd- mation generated from different scales are needed to robiogeochemistry and microbial communities, further explain the underlying design principles of particularly in regions exposed to rapid change different system elements and the association between and sharp spatial gradients (e.g., coastal regions). different phenomena. Statistical data analytics, machine learning, and inference are central to virtually 9. Further analyses of variabilities and change based all scales of data analytics in the climate, Earth, and on robust techniques involving metrics, diagnos- environmental sciences, and this activity will pursue tics, machine learning, and multiscale analysis. all of them. Data Management Given that data volumes already exceed exabyte The Data Management (DM) activity within CESD scales, the federated data system approach adopted emphasizes data standards, preservation, and feder- by CESD will need future expansion. This advance- ation to benefit all DOE scientists. To date, the DM ment will require that data providers maintain a set of 34 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan geographically dispersed nodes accessible by the scientific community and that, through linkages, these nodes increasingly will be required to serve as archived data repositories. Thus scientists will be able to access all data as if that data were on their own system (see Fig. 21. ESGF’s Decentralized Approach, this page). Such an integrative system also will require pro- totyping of new algorithms for new model representations, uncertainty quantifica- tion, and intelligent pattern recognition (BERAC 2013). Fig. 21. Earth System Grid Federation’s (ESGF) Decentralized Approach. ESGF ensures equal access to large disparate datasets (e.g., simulation, observation, and reanalysis) that in the past would have been accessible across the climate science community only with great difficulty. The ESGF infrastructure enables scientists to evaluate models, understand their differences, and explore the impacts of climate change through a common interface, regardless of data location. U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 35 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018

Appendix 2 References BERAC. 2013. BER Virtual Laboratory: Innovative Framework for U.S. DOE. 2012. Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Stra- Biological and Environmental Grand Challenges; A Report from tegic Plan, DOE/SC-0151, U.S. Department of Energy Office of the Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee, Science (science.energy.gov/~/media/ber/pdf/CESD-Strat- DOE/SC-0156 (science.energy.gov/~/media/ber/berac/pdf/ Plan-2012.pdf). Reports/BER_VirtualLaboratory_finalwebHR.pdf). U.S. DOE. 2014. U.S. Department of Energy Strategic Plan, 2014– BERAC. 2017. Grand Challenges for Biological and Environmental 2018. U.S. Department of Energy (www.energy.gov/sites/prod/ Research: Progress and Future Vision; A Report from the Biolog- files/2014/04/f14/2014_dept_energy_strategic_plan.pdf). ical and Environmental Research Advisory Committee, DOE/ SC–0190, BERAC Subcommittee on Grand Research Chal- lenges for Biological and Environmental Research (science. energy.gov/~/media/ber/berac/pdf/Reports/BERAC-2017- Grand-Challenges-Report.pdf). 36 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research May 2018 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan

Appendix 3 Chapter Cover Image Descriptions and Credits Chapter 1: Mission. Treeline along an elevational spanning molecular to global scales, but they are gradient in the Colorado Rockies, where Terrestrial also spatially complex, encompassing processes that Ecosystem Science-supported researchers are occur over time scales ranging from nanoseconds to studying the effects of climate warming on mountain­ centuries. [Ball-and-stick representation of atoms top plants and soils. [Courtesy Aimee Classen, within a molecule, Pacific Northwest National University of Vermont] Laboratory. Ribosome molecular complex image, Ditlev Brodersen, Aarhus University. Magnified Chapter 2: Vision and Values. Visualization of view of a red pine (Pinus resinosa) root and global water-surface temperatures, with the surface associated microbiome, Environmental Molecular texture driven by vorticity. Cool temperatures are Sciences Laboratory. Forest ecosystem image, U.S. designated by blues and warmer temperatures by National Park Service. Mountain and Earth images, reds. Trapped regions of warmer water (red) adjacent iStockphoto.com.] to the Gulf Stream off the U.S. East Coast indicate the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean’s Chapter 5: Implementation Strategy. Interactive (MPAS-O) capability to simulate eddy transport of volume rendering of cubed sphere data using vcs3D, heat within the ocean, a key component necessary to the visualization component of Community Data accurately simulate global climate change. [Courtesy Analysis Tools (CDAT) supported by the Department Los Alamos National Laboratory] of Energy and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). [Courtesy Thomas Maxwell, Chapter 3: Plan Background and Purpose. NASA Center for Climate Simulation, Goddard Space Magnified view of a red pine (Pinus resinosa) root and Flight Center] associated microbiome. [Courtesy Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory] Appendices. Installation of an aquifer tube to monitor the hydrological exchange of river water Chapter 4: CESD Scientific Grand Challenges and groundwater and associated biogeochemical for 2018–2023. Images represent a broad range of processes in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia natural systems that drive CESD-supported science. River. This work is supported by the Subsurface These systems are not only structurally and spatially Biogeochemical Research activity. [Courtesy Pacific complex with many different interacting parts Northwest National Laboratory] U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research 37 Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan May 2018 38 U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Biological and Environmental Research Acronyms and Abbreviations ARM Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ASCR DOE Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research ASR Atmospheric System Research BER DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research BERAC Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee CESD BER Climate and Environmental Sciences Division DM Data Management DOE U.S. Department of Energy E3SM Energy Exascale Earth System Model EESM Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling EMSL Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory ESGF Earth System Grid Federation ESM Earth system model ESS Environmental System Science ESS-DIVE Environmental System Science-Data Infrastructure for a Virtual Ecosystem ModEx integrated model-observation-experiment paradigm NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NGEE Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration NSF National Science Foundation SFA Science Focus Area USGS U.S. Geological Survey