Tanzania Livestock Master Plan 2018

TANZANIA LIVESTOCK MASTER PLAN ISBN:92–9146–540–2 The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) works to improve food security and reduce poverty in developing countries through research for better and more sustainable use of livestock. ILRI is a CGIAR research centre. It works through a network of regional and country offices and projects in East, South and Southeast Asia, Central, East, Southern and West Africa, and in Central America. ilri.org CGIAR is a global agricultural research partnership for a food-secure future. Its research is carried out by 15 research centres in collaboration with hundreds of partner organizations. cgiar.org Tanzania livestock master plan Tanzania livestock master plan Developed by the Tanzania Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries (MLF) and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) livestock master plan team January 2018 Stephen Michael1, Nathaniel Mbwambo1, Hassan Mruttu1, Mathew Maziku Dotto1, Conrad Ndomba1, Mlau da Silva1, Francis Makusaro1, Salim Nandonde1, Julius Crispin1, Barry Shapiro2, Solomon Desta3, Kidus Nigussie4, Asfaw Negassa2 and Getachew Gebru3 1. Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries 2. International Livestock Research Institute 3. MARIL-Ethiopia 4. Independent Consultant iiiTanzania livestock master plan ©2018 International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) ILRI thanks all donors and organizations which globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system This publication is copyrighted by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). It is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence. To view this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. Unless otherwise noted, you are free to share (copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format), adapt (remix, transform, and build upon the material) for any purpose, even commercially, under the following conditions: ATTRIBUTION. The work must be attributed, but not in any way that suggests endorsement by ILRI or the author(s). NOTICE: For any reuse or distribution, the licence terms of this work must be made clear to others. Any of the above conditions can be waived if permission is obtained from the copyright holder. Nothing in this licence impairs or restricts the author’s moral rights. Fair dealing and other rights are in no way affected by the above. The parts used must not misrepresent the meaning of the publication. ILRI would appreciate being sent a copy of any materials in which text, photos etc. have been used. Editing, design and layout—ILRI Editorial and Publishing Services, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Cover photo—ILRI/Ben Lukuyu ISBN: 92–9146–540–2 Citation: Michael, S., Mbwambo, N., Mruttu, H., Dotto, M., Ndomba, C., da Silva, M., Makusaro, F., Nandonde, S., Crispin, J., Shapiro, B., Desta, S., Nigussie, K., Negassa, A. and Gebru, G. 2018. Tanzania livestock master plan. Nairobi, Kenya: International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). iv Tanzania livestock master plan Contents Tables vi Figures ix Acronyms x Acknowledgements xii Contributors xiv Executive summary xvi Introduction 1 Main results and conclusions of the livestock sector analysis 2 Dairy development roadmap (2017/18–2021/22) 10 Vision 10 Overall target 10 Improved family dairy production in coastal and lake, and highlands zones 12 Commercial specialized dairy production 20 Conclusions 24 Red meat systems roadmap (2017/17–2021/22) 27 Vision 27 Overall target 27 Improved traditional red meat production 27 Challenges and strategies 30 Conclusions 40 Chicken development roadmap (2017/18–2021/22) 42 Vision 42 Overall target 42 Improving traditional family chicken and promoting and expanding tropical improved chicken subsystems 42 vTanzania livestock master plan Specialized commercial chicken production 46 Conclusions 52 Pig/pork value chain development roadmap (2017/18–2021/22) 54 Vision 54 Overall target 54 Modernizing and transforming the traditional free-ranging family pig production system 54 Expanding the commercial specialized pig production subsystem 57 Conclusions 64 Livestock sectoral analysis key findings on cross-cutting issues 65 Introduction 65 Tanzania livestock master plan conclusions 69 Crossbred dairy cow development 69 Red meat development 70 Poultry development 70 Pig development 71 Total investment in the livestock master plan 72 Annex 1: Five-year dairy production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) 73 Annex 2: Five-year red meat production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) 75 Annex 3: Five-year chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) 77 Annex 4: Five-year pig/pork production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) 79 References 82 vi Tanzania livestock master plan Tables Table 1: Profitability, GDP and nutritional impacts of investment in the livestock sector by year 2031 4 Table 2: Current and projected number of crossbred cattle by production zone in Tanzania 10 Table 3: Current and projected milk production in Tanzania 11 Table 4: Annualized milk productivity of cows in traditional and improved family dairy and commercial specialized dairy subsystems 11 Table 5: GDP contribution of milk at national level 11 Table 6: Dairy production subsystems in Tanzania 12 Table 7: Key challenges and strategies related to improved family dairy production 12 Table 8: Increase in milk production due to cow dairy improvement in improved family dairy subsystem of coastal and lake, and highlands zones 15 Table 9: Average daily milk production change per cow in coastal and lake, and highlands zones due to cow dairy improvement interventions in improved family dairy subsystem 15 Table 10: Annualized milk production of cow in coastal and lake and highlands zones 15 Table 11: Five-year dairy improvement investment (2017/18–2021/22) 16 Table 12: Change in GDP contribution of milk in coastal and lake and highlands zones 18 Table 13: Change in income per animal due to dairy improvement interventions in improved family dairy 18 Table 14: Activities time line and sequencing: Gantt chart 18 Table 15: Key strategies and challenges in commercial specialized dairy production 20 Table 16: Changes in number of crossbreds and dairy farms in commercial specialized dairy subsystem 21 Table 17: GDP contribution of cow milk production in the commercial specialized dairy subsystem 23 Table 18: Change in income per animal due to dairy improvement interventions in commercial specialized dairy 23 Table 19: Annual increase in number of cattle 28 Table 20: Annual increase in number of sheep and goats in the traditional system 28 Table 21: Contribution of cattle to national red meat production (in tonnes) 29 Table 22: Contribution of cattle ranching system to the national red meat production (in tonnes) 29 viiTanzania livestock master plan Table 23: Per cent contribution of cattle to national red meat by production system 29 Table 24: Contribution of sheep meat to national red meat production (in tonnes) 29 Table 25: Contribution of goat meat to national red meat production (in tonnes) 30 Table 26: Key challenges and strategies in enhancing red meat production in Tanzania 30 Table 27: Total investment and recurrent costs red meat production 32 Table 28: The per cent contribution of public, private and public-private partnerships investments for red meat production 32 Table 29: Investment cost in the central production zone 32 Table 30: Investment cost in coastal and lake production zone 33 Table 31: Investment cost in the highlands production zone 33 Table 32: Returns on investment (ROI) 33 Table 33: Red meat production for baseline year (2016) and 2021 with intervention 34 Table 34: Total red meat by species (cattle, sheep and goats) 34 Table 35: Livestock GDP contribution for baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with red meat interventions 34 Table 36 Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart 35 Table 37: Number of cattle units in the feedlot system 35 Table 38: Contribution of the cattle feedlot system to the national meat production 35 Table 39: Contribution of the dairy production system to national meat production 35 Table 40: Challenges and strategies for developing specialized cattle feedlots and dairy cattle systems 36 Table 41: Projected number of cattle fattened 36 Table 42: Estimated amount of additional concentrate feed needed for additional cattle going to beef feedlot by the year 2020 37 Table 43: Investment in abattoir establishment 37 Table 44: Change in meat production from cattle feedlots (2016/17–2021/22) with interventions 37 Table 45: Changes in livestock GDP with interventions in specialized cattle feedlots 37 Table 46: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart 37 Table 47: Number of hens and chicken meat and eggs production in improved traditional family chicken and tropical improved chicken subsystems (2016/17–2021/22) 42 Table 48: Key challenges and strategies related to traditional family chicken system 43 Table 49: GDP contribution 2031 with current and with additional investment scenarios 45 Table 50: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart 45 Table 51: Number of chicken and chicken meat production in specialized chicken subsystems 46 viii Tanzania livestock master plan Table 52: Egg production from specialized layers 46 Table 53: Five-year chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) 47 Table 54: GDP contribution from commercial specialized chicken system (baseline GDP compared with 2021/22 from additional investment) 48 Table 55: Total chicken meat and eggs production with additional investment 49 Table 56: Family and commercial specialized chicken production systems GDP contribution with additional investment 49 Table 57: Annual incremental income as a result of the intervention 49 Table 58: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart 50 Table 59: Number of sow and tonnes of meat in traditional (extensive) family and improved family pig subsystems 54 Table 60: Key challenges and strategies related to the family pig subsystem 55 Table 61: Family pig GDP contribution with additional investment 57 Table 62: Population growth of sows and pig meat production in the commercial/specialized pig production (CSP) subsystem 57 Table 63: Five-year investment cost to transform the family pig system and expand the commercial specialized system (2016/17 to 2021/22) 59 Table 64: Total pig meat production with additional investment 61 Table 65: Family and commercial specialized pig subsystem GDP contribution with additional investment 61 Table 66: Incremental income per sow 61 Table 67: Major activities timing and sequence: Gantt chart 62 Table 68: Total investment cost required to carry out the livestock master plan roadmap 72 ixTanzania livestock master plan Figures Figure 1: Production-consumption balance for red meat with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016/17–2031/32 5 Figure 2: Production-consumption balance for white meat with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016–2031 6 Figure 3: Production-consumption balance for all meat with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016–2031 6 Figure 4: Production-consumption balance for cow milk with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016–2031 7 Figure 5: Projected cow milk consumption and production with and without investment, 2017–2022 (in thousand tonnes) 24 Figure 6: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for beef 38 Figure 7: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for sheep meat 39 Figure 8: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for goat meat 39 Figure 9: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for red meat 40 Figure 10: Projected chicken meat consumption and production with and without additional investment 2017–2022 (in thousand tonnes) 50 Figure 11: Projected pig meat consumption and production with and without additional investment (in thousand tonnes), 2017–2022 62 x Tanzania livestock master plan Acronyms ALive African Partnership for Livestock Development AI Artificial insemination AnGR Animal genetic resources ASF African swine fever ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Program ATA Agricultural Transformation Agency AU-IBAR African Union–Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources BAU Business as usual BMGF Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation CBPP Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia CCPP Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia CIRAD French Agricultural Reserach Centre for International Development CSO Civil society organization DOC Day-old chick FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FMD Foot-and-mouth disease GDP Gross domestic product HACCP Hazard analysis and critical control points IFD Improved family dairy IFP Improved family poultry ILRI International Livestock Research Institute IRR Internal rate of return xiTanzania livestock master plan IFPS Improved family pig system ITFC Improved traditional family chicken LGA Local government authority LMP Livestock master plan LMU Livestock multiplication units LSA Livestock sector analysis LSIPT Livestock sector investment and policy toolkit MLF Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries NAFORMA Tanzania Forest Service Agency NARCO National Ranching Company PPE Personal protective equipment PPP Public-private partnership PPR Peste des petits ruminants (goat plague) RVF Rift Valley fever SCC Specialized commercial chicken SUA Sokoine University of Agriculture SPA Swine producers’ association TAC Technical advisory committee TALIRI Tanzania Livestock Research Institute TB Tuberculosis TDV Tanzania Development Vision TFPS Traditional family pig system TIC Traditional improved chicken TLMI Tanzania Livestock Modernization Initiative TVLA Tanzania Veterinary Laboratory Agency TZS Tanzania shilling YASM Young and adult stock mortality xii Tanzania livestock master plan Acknowledgements The Tanzania livestock master plan (LMP) was developed by the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries (MLF) with technical support from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) as a roadmap to achieve the Tanzania Development Vision (TDV) 2025. One of the TDV’s goals is that ‘by year 2025 there should be a livestock sector, which to a large extent shall be commercially run, modern and sustainable, using improved and highly productive livestock to ensure food security, improved income for households and the nation while conserving the environment.’ The work was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). Many capable individuals, and supportive institutions and agencies, contributed to the realization of the Tanzania LMP. The TLMP will be implemented under the auspices of Hon. Luhaga Joelson Mpina, the Minister, Livestock and Fisheries Ministry, with the support of Mary S H Mashingo, the Permanent Secretary of MLF (for livestock). The inspiration and impetus for the plan came from Catherine Joseph, director for policy and planning at the MLF, who was also chair of the technical advisory committee of the Tanzania LMP. This report found receptive ears and supportive partners in James Smith, director general of ILRI, Marcelina Chijoriga the BMGF country representative in Tanzania, and Amos Omore, ILRI’s representative in Tanzania. The Tanzania LMP team is particularly grateful to the ILRI LMP team, without whose modelling and planning expertise, hard work, training skills, guidance, goodwill and sacrifice, the LMP would not have seen the light of day. The ILRI livestock master plan team included: Barry I Shapiro, the LMP team leader at ILRI Getachew Gebru, animal scientist, co-founder and deputy director of Managing Risk for Improved Livelihoods-Ethiopia (MARIL) Solomon Desta, rangeland economist and co-founder and director, MARIL Asfaw Negassa, agricultural economist and ILRI consultant Kidus Nigussie Brook, animal scientist, senior dairy expert and ILRI consultant Rico Natali of the BMGF deserves a special note of appreciation. Rico saw the value of carrying out this exercise to help the MLF in the production of a livestock roadmap and increase the planning capacity of the MLF staff. He supported the project wholeheartedly, with much perseverance and facilitation. We had the good fortune of finding very competent and hard-working professionals who joined the Tanzania LMP team including: Stephen Michael, senior economist, MLF (coordinator) Nathaniel Mbwambo, animal scientist, MLF (coordinator) Hassan Mruttu, animal scientist, MLF Mathew Maziku Dotto, veterinarian, MLF Conrad Ndomba, animal scientist, MLF Mlau da Silva, principal statistician, MLF Francis Makusaro, economist, MLF Salim Nandonde, animal scientist, MLF Julius Crispin, economist, MLF xiiiTanzania livestock master plan The work of the Tanzania LMP team was assisted by many livestock experts who, through great personal sacrifice, contributed to the numerous expert consultations held to get technical advice and validate the results of the livestock sector analysis (LSA). They are hopefully all listed in contributors’ page. However, the team would like to call special attention to the members of the technical advisory committee listed below. Catherine Joseph, director for policy and planning, MLF Salim Mwinjaka, assistant director monitoring and evaluation, MLF Abdu Hayghaimo, director of veterinary services, MLF Anunciata Njombe, director of production and marketing, MLF Eligy Shirima, Tanzania Livestock Research Institute, MLF Furaha Mramba, Tanzania Veterinary Laboratory Authority, MLF Suzan Kiango, Tanzania Meat Board Nelson Kilongozi, Tanzania Dairy Board Magreth Palangyo, Livestock Training Agency, MLF Bedan Masuruli, deputy registrar, Veterinary Council of Tanzania, MLF Rudovic Kazwala, veterinary department, Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) Lusato Kurwijila, veterinary department, SUA Prof Joseph Hela, agriculture economics department, SUA Maghembe Makoye, Tanzania Livestock Producers Association Mboka Mwanitu, Agricultural Council of Tanzania Mwatima Juma, Agriculture Sector Working Group Titus Mwisomba, National Bureau of Statistics The African Partnership for Livestock Development (ALive), under the aegis of the African Union Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR), brought together specialists from the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Bank, to develop the set of analytical tools employed in this report: The livestock sector investment and policy toolkit (LSIPT). The Tanzania LMP team had the good fortune to have the training support of Solomon Desta, Getachew Gebru, Asfaw Negasa, Kidus Nigussie, and Barry Shaprio. Finally, appreciative mention is made to project advisor, Barry Shapiro, without whose support and guidance the project would have struggled to stay of track. To efficiently implement the initiative, I call upon every one of us to be focused, transparent, accountable and innovative in implementing the activities outlined in this report. I wish, therefore, to urge all government staff, private sector and other stakeholders to fully commit themselves to the implementation of the initiative for the benefit of the people of the United Republic of Tanzania. Luhaga Joelson Mpina Minister for Livestock and Fisheries December 2017 xiv Tanzania livestock master plan Contributors Name Affiliation Sebastian Chenyambuga SUA-Veterinary Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) George Msalya SUA Sophia Mlote Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives David Nyange The Agriculture Sector Policy and Institutional Reforms Strengthening Jason Kami National Land Use Planning Commission Mlemba Abbasy National Bureau of Statistics Mukara Mugini President’s Office Regional Administration and Local Government Anthony Mtaka Hai District Commissioner Joe Mutahabwa Tandan Farms John Kaijage MLF Petro Ezekiel Tanzania Meat Board Germana Laswai SUA Ephraim Mtengeti SUA Nurdin Chamuya Tanzania Forest Service Agency (NAFORMA) Bwire Mwijarubi National Ranching Company (NARCO) Leocadia Mkira MLF Peter Kingu MLF Desdery Rwezaula MLF Sero Luwongo MLF Sylvester Bikuba MLF Gibbor Kayuni MLF xvTanzania livestock master plan June Fussi MLF Hildebrand Shayo TIB Development Bank Florence Edson Livestock Expert, Arusha Issa Hatibu Livestock Expert, Tanga Issa Mzava Livestock Expert, Manyara Nsiande Raymond MLF Martha Ngwiza MLF Shaban Mbaga SUA Yakobo Msanga MLF Makungu Selemani MLF Victor Mwita MLF Deograsius Ruzaghi MLF xvi Tanzania livestock master plan Executive summary In recent years, the government of Tanzania has prioritized the transformation of the agricultural sector. This approach has been adopted in the 2007 Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP) and its successor, the 2016 ASDP II. The country’s agriculture development plan is designed to help meet the objectives set out in a number of existing strategies and policies in the country. Despite accounting for 11% of the African cattle population, livestock related activities contribute only 7.4% to Tanzania’s GDP and growth of the livestock sector at 2.6% is low. This growth largely reflects increases in livestock numbers, rather than productivity gains. The absence of a roadmap to develop the livestock sector has persistently hindered successful implementation of previous investment plans for the sector. Though severely constrained by low livestock reproductive rates, high mortality and high disease prevalence, detailed interdisciplinary by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries (MLF) revealed the potential benefits of a comprehensive livestock master plan (LMP) for Tanzania. The LMP sets out livestock-sector investment interventions—better genetics, feed and health services, and complementary policy support—which could help meet the ASDP II targets by improving productivity and total production in the key livestock value chains of poultry, pork, red meat and milk, and dairy. If the proposed investments of USD 621 million—36% and 64% from the public and private sectors, respectively—were successfully implemented, the anticipated transformation of the sector has the potential to impact positively on rural livestock keepers in increasing their incomes and on urban consumers through lower animal product prices. The success of the LMP is also critical to the achievement of food and nutrition security at household and national levels. Development of the livestock master plan Using the most recently available data, from 2013 to 2015, the MLF supported by ILRI and by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), employed the livestock sector investment and policy toolkit (LSIPT) to develop herd and sector models and a baseline assessment of the current state of livestock development in Tanzania. This assessment was used to assess the potential long-term, 15–20 years, impact of proposed combined technology and policy interventions, referred to as the livestock sector analysis (LSA), whose results formed the basis for the development of the LMP for 2017–2022. The LMP is a series of five-year development implementation plans or ‘roadmaps’, to be used to implement the ASDP II. The LSA and LMP interventions, based on investment scenarios related to productivity-enhancing technologies and improved policies developed by the MLF, were tested in accordance national development objectives based on the following criteria: • reducing poverty, • achieving food security, • contributing to economic growth, • contributing to exports, and • contributing to industrialization. xviiTanzania livestock master plan Using measurable economic or environmental indicators for these objectives, four key livestock value chains— live animals and red meat and milk (from cattle, sheep, and goats), dairy with crossbred cows, poultry, pigs, and dairy—were identified in the LSA as producing the greatest productivity increases contributing to national economic development objectives and the long-term development of the sector. The LMP comprises two sub-value chains for each value chain: smallholder family and commercial specialized production systems. These sub-value chains are found in one or more of the three major production typology zones of Tanzania: central; coastal and lake; and highlands, plus commercial specialized systems found throughout the country. The rigorous ex-ante technical and financial review of alternative intervention options (investment scenarios) carried out by the MLF is thus a guide to the choice and prioritization of public and private investments that have the highest payoffs for livestock sector transformation. Livestock master plan commodity value chains Based on results of the LSA analysis, to reach the objectives and goals of the government, the key value chains targeted in the livestock master plan roadmaps are: 1. Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, and goats • Improved traditional red meat and milk • Ranches • Specialized feedlots 2. Poultry • Improved family chicken • Commercial specialized chicken (layers and broilers) 3. Pigs/pork • Traditional system (scavenging and semi-scavenging system) • Commercial specialized pig production systems 4. Cow dairy • Improved family dairy • Commercial specialized dairy Key results Red meat value chain development The proposed combined interventions for red meat production on traditional family farms and commercial ranches, as well as feedlot development, would result in a 52% increase in total red meat production. Production would grow to 742,524 tonnes between 2017 and 2022. This would, however, not meet expected consumption growth of 71% by 2022 (to 867,302 tonnes), leaving a 17% deficit (124,778 tonnes) in the 2017–2022 red meat production and consumption balance. Given the rapidly growing population, and increasing incomes and demand for animal-source foods in Tanzania, such projected deficits would put upward pressure on red meat prices. The extremely restricted access to land for grazing and feed production and limited ability to enhance the genetic potential of local ruminant breeds in the medium-term means it is unlikely that the red meat production gap can be closed in the next five years. Even a substantial increase in the supply of red meat from small ruminants—with goat meat and mutton currently accounting for 14% and 4%, respectively—is unlikely to significantly help close the projected meat consumption/demand gap because beef accounts for 82% of red meat production in Tanzania. xviii Tanzania livestock master plan Poultry value chain development Successful interventions would allow the poultry subsector to move to improved family poultry with semi scavenging crossbreds and enable substantial increases in the scale of specialized layer and broiler operations. Such a transformation—depending on successful interventions in breed selection, health services (particularly in treating Newcastle disease), feed, extension, private investment and trade policies—would contribute considerably to improving household food and nutrition security and increase the subsector’s contribution to GDP by 182% from TZS 256 billion to TZS 723 billion; thereby contributing significantly to closing the production-consumption gap for meat. Projected annual chicken meat and egg production in Tanzania would rise to 465,600 tonnes and 4.2 billion eggs. This would bring the production-consumption deficit for chicken meat from 130,000 to a surplus of 258,000 tonnes between 2017 and 2022. The combined interventions would result in increases of 666% and 40% respectively in chicken meat and egg production by 2022. Such accomplishments would enable Tanzania to meet the chicken meat and egg demand for its growing population, and produce a very significant surplus for domestic industrial use or for export. With the assistance of policies encouraging investment in processing plants, the surplus eggs could be processed into egg powder and used domestically for new or additional industrial uses (e.g. in the baking industry), or exported to generate foreign exchange earnings. Pig/pork value chain development The proposed combined interventions for improved family and expanded commercial pig production systems would result in a 69% increase in pork production. Production would grow from 22,025 to 37,191 tonnes between 2017 and 2022. The development of a competently market-oriented farming, processing and a dynamic pig/pork marketing sector, operating in more sustainable and climate-smart ways, supplying consumers with high-quality and safe pork would significantly contribute to increased household income, food and nutrition security, poverty alleviation and would increase sector’s contribution to GDP by 83%, from TZS 44 billion to 80 billion between 2017 and 2022. This would bring the production-consumption deficit for pork from 8,000 tonnes to a 1,350-tonne surplus between 2017 and 2022. Improving pig production requires a focus on controlling African swine fever in pigs. In the ‘without additional investment’ scenario, by year 2032, a deficit of 16,000 tonnes of pig meat is estimated, thus resulting in a total ‘all meat’ deficit of 2.0 million tonnes. However, industrializing pork production (in large commercial-scale operations and processing for product transformation) will lower domestic meat prices, and lead to an increase in pig/pork exports and foreign exchange earnings. Cow dairy The projected increase in national cow milk production as a result of the proposed interventions—including artificial insemination and hormone synchronization, combined with improved feed and health interventions, value addition and complementary policy changes—during the ASDP II period (2017–2022) is 77%. This represents a surplus of 1,002 million litres over projected domestic consumption requirements. This production increase would make it possible to meet the milk production targets in the ASDP II and exceed the growing domestic demand for milk by 35%. This surplus of milk could then be substituted for imported milk products and used domestically for new or additional industrial uses (e.g. in the baking industry), or exported as milk powder or ultra-heat treated (UHT) milk to raise foreign exchange earnings. Due to increases in the number of crossbred dairy cows by 281% and milk production per cow by 26-42%, the contribution of the dairy sector to GDP is expected to rise by 75%. Meat production-consumption balance Perhaps most importantly, the growth of the poultry and pig subsectors would enable Tanzania to close the projected total national meat production-consumption gap. This growth would also make it possible to increase the share of white meat in the total meat consumed from the current 9% to 41% by 2032, but only if chicken is substituted for xixTanzania livestock master plan red meat. Taking advantage of the benefits of the potential poultry revolution will require substantial investments in promotional activities to change tastes and preferences from beef, as well as from local to exotic chicken meat and eggs. The substitution of the surplus chicken meat for domestic red meat consumption would also lower pressure on domestic meat prices and enable an increase in the export of live animals (cattle, sheep, and goats), potentially raising foreign exchange earnings. The huge deficit in projected demand (without investments) for red meat is being driven by an increasing human population and income growth. Limited access to land for improving feed production, including grazing lands, and the low genetic potential of local cattle and small ruminant breeds are the main constraints to increased red meat production. Nevertheless, red meat from small ruminants will be of little help in closing the meat gap due to their low numbers, limited feed resources and low genetic potential of indigenous breeds, nor will pork help because of outbreaks of African swine fever and a lack of demand in the country. Conclusions Key messages • Investment in poultry has the most potential to close the projected meat consumption gap and could enable export of ruminant animals and red meat. However, domestic consumer preferences for white meat and particularly chicken meat would need significant investment and effort in changing consumer preferences for red meat, especially beef and goat meat. • The projected gap in milk demanded could be closed and a surplus produced through artificial insemination and hormone synchronization for breed improvement, combined with feed and health interventions addressing young and adult stock mortality (YASM). • Feed is the biggest constraint to animal productivity improvement. Access to land appropriate for grazing, and land for feed production needs to be addressed to overcome the serious existing feed deficit. • Red meat production is not expected to increase much over time and help significantly to close the projected all meat production-consumption gap due to the present limited access to land for feed production and grazing, the need to expand animal health services, and the low genetic potential of local cattle breeds and small ruminants. • Small ruminants are also not expected to contribute much in closing the meat gap due to their low numbers, inadequate feed resources and low genetic potential of indigenous breeds. • Pork has potential to help close the projected all-meat production-consumption gap but it is prone to African swine fever requiring improved prevention and control, and its demand is limited; hence it cannot be a priority solution for closing the meat gap. Priority investment interventions Various combinations of the three standard types of livestock technology interventions– improved genetics, health and feed–are needed to generate higher incomes and animal productivity, and contribute to achievement of national development objectives. The appropriate combinations, depending upon the biophysical, agro-ecological and market conditions facing livestock in the four production zones in Tanzania, include: • Ensuring artificial insemination and hormone synchronization, and improving feed and health interventions addressing YASM to help facilitate a surplus in milk production. • Targeting animal health interventions to address young and adult stock mortality (vaccinations, parasite control), and ensuring improved productivity, thereby increasing animal and product off-take for meat and dairy products. • Prioritizing beef production from on-farm fattening and commercial feedlots as a way of reducing the red meat deficit. • Improving access to land appropriate for grazing, and land for feed production to overcome the existing feed deficit, which is the biggest constraint to animal productivity improvement. xx Tanzania livestock master plan • Improving the quality and quantity of livestock feed resources by introducing improved forage crops and better animal feed management practices, feed production on irrigated land Complementary policy interventions • Appropriate policies will be needed to support livestock sector development efforts including in the following areas: • Expanding animal health services provision especially in remote areas where pastoralists predominate. Public private partnerships could be explored for offering these services where private investments are risky, and returns are low. • Undertaking investments in promotional activities to change tastes and preferences from beef to white meat, especially chicken. • Prioritizing poultry investments in genetic improvement by focusing on crossbred and fully exotic chicken, and pure breeds for both family and commercial enterprises. • Prioritizing policies creating a conducive environment for investment in commercial meat and milk production and processing. • Promoting land allocation and ownership policies which facilitate the investments required to increase feed availability for meat and milk production. • Promoting land leasing, including land under irrigation, for animal and feed production and providing tax incentives and subsidized leasing rates to entrepreneurs. • Promoting exports to more remunerative markets in the region through the introduction of a practical and affordable system of animal identification and traceability, as well as food safety and animal health programs that include disease surveillance and monitoring animal slaughter processes. • Promoting substantial private investment in livestock product transformation through high value-added processing. • Improving the enabling environment for agribusiness investment by streamlining regulations and procedures to attract and maintain private investment. 1Tanzania livestock master plan Introduction Tanzania livestock master plan and livestock sector analysis The Tanzania livestock master plan (LMP) was co-developed by the MLF and ILRI. Its development was overseen by a high-level technical advisory committee (TAC) convened under the auspices of the MLF livestock permanent secretary, Maria Mashingo, and chaired by Catherine Dangat, the director for policy and planning at the ministry. The TAC was comprised of the directors of key MLF livestock-related departments and other government agencies, and representatives from the private sector, civil society organizations and development agencies. Data collection and quantitative diagnostics was supported by the continual involvement of key national livestock experts and consultation with a wide range of key stakeholders. The quantitative sector analysis was undertaken using the livestock sector investment and policy toolkit (LSIPT) developed by the World Bank, the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations working under the auspices of ALive at the African Union Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources (AU IBAR). The LMP is a series of five-year development plans or roadmaps for the key livestock value chains and production systems within each value, chosen based on the priority development objectives of the Tanzania government. Each roadmap includes specific visions and targets, challenges and strategies, and combined investments in technology and policy interventions, with expected outputs, outcomes and impacts. The roadmaps are also fully budgeted, and include timed and sequenced activity plans (see Gantt charts). The LMP is based on a 15-year (2016/7–2031/32) livestock sector analysis (LSA). The LSA entailed creating a livestock sector model and then carrying out a quantitative analysis of the present technical performance of the sector and the economic contribution of potential interventions to households, value chains, the livestock subsector, the agricultural sector, and the national economy. A set of quantitative tools from the LSIPT were used to carry out the sector analysis. The LSA and LMP are based on available data from field surveys and published literature, as well as expert opinions, validated through consistency tests. The development of the LMP entailed regular and open consultations with relevant technical experts, partners and other stakeholders to help ensure ownership by all relevant livestock sector stakeholders. The LMP is meant to help realize the various existing national development strategies and policies namely the Tanzania Development Vision 2025, the Five-year Development Plan (2016/2017 -2021/2022), the National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (MKUKUTA II), the National Livestock Policy 2006, the Agricultural Sector Development Strategy II (ASDS II) and the Livestock Sector Development Strategy (2010). With technical support from international and local research organizations, these roadmaps are meant to be implemented by the MLF, other government ministries and agencies, at both national and regional levels, as well as by development partners (donors, development banks, international and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), civil society organizations (CSOs) etc. and private sector actors. 2 Tanzania livestock master plan Main results and conclusions of the livestock sector analysis Introduction According to the livestock sector analysis (LSA), Tanzania accounts for about 1.4% of the global cattle population and 11% of African cattle population (FAO 2014). The main livestock types are cattle, goats, sheep, pigs, chickens, and donkeys. Based on the 2016/17 LSA baseline Tanzania has about 28.8 million cattle, 16.7 million goats and 5 million sheep. Other livestock include 2 million pigs, 33.3 million local chicken and 15.6 million improved chicken (as also reported in the MLF budget speech, 2016/17). Goat meat and mutton currently account for 14% and 4% of all red meat respectively—thus, their improved productivity is unlikely to significantly close the projected meat consumption/ demand gap as beef accounts for 82% of the red meat production in Tanzania. Thus, the development focus has to include cattle. The national herd is dominated by indigenous cattle which are currently displaying low productivity, but they have much potential if feed, health and breed improvements can be made. The main breeds of beef cattle in the country include: Tanzania Shorthorn Zebu (TSHZ) characterized by small size mature body weight (200–350 kg); Longhorn Cattle (LHC) such as the Ankole which is characterized by large matured body weight (500–730 kg); and the Boran which has a large body weight (500–800 kg). The country has many other outstanding natural resources to support livestock development including extensive rangelands; diverse natural vegetation and its diversely resilient low production livestock breeds. Despite these resources, the livestock sector is performing below its potential. The LSA baseline analysis showed that only with additional investments in technological change and changes in policy can the productivity and production potential of these animal resource be sufficiently improved to provide sufficient animal-source foods (ASFs) to feed a rapidly growing population, with its rapidly increasing income and demand for ASFs. Presently, livestock activities contribute only 7.4% to the country’s GDP and the annual growth rate of the sector is low at 2.6%. This growth for the large part reflects an increase in livestock numbers rather than productivity gains. The sector is severely constrained by low livestock reproductive rates, high mortality and high disease prevalence, and lack of feed (TLMI 2015). The widely accepted baseline results for the sector, and the LSA investment scenario results shared below point to high returns on investment in livestock. They also show there is a need to strategically increase investments in livestock production systems and value chains in order to improve productivity and incomes, thus enhancing the sector’s economic contributions at all levels, and to the development objectives mentioned above. In the investment scenarios carried out by MLF under the LSA on productivity enhancing technology interventions, combined with better policies, the following current national development objectives of Tanzania were used as decision criteria for comparing the alternative investment interventions (combined technology and policy): 3Tanzania livestock master plan • reducing poverty • achieving food security • contributing to economic growth • contributing to exports • contributing to industrialization Using measurable economic indicators for the above objectives, four key livestock value chains–live animals and red meat and milk (from cattle, sheep, and goats), dairy with crossbred cows, and poultry and pigs (both white meat)– were identified in the LSA as having the most potential for productivity increase with new investments to achieve these national economic development objectives and contribute most to the long-run development of the sector. The rigorous ex-ante technical and financial analysis of alternative intervention options (investment scenarios) carried out by MLF is thus a guide to the choice and prioritization of public and private investments with the highest payoffs for livestock sector transformation. Priority interventions to modernize the sector The identified priority technology interventions for modenizing the livestock sector include: Improving the quality and quantity of livestock feed resources by introducing improved forage crops and improved animal feed management practices, as well as increased access to existing lands appropriate for grazing. Improving the productivity of indigenous livestock by changing the genetic composition through breed selection by crossbreeding, introducing pure exotic breeds where feasible and through improved animal husbandry interventions; Increasing the quality and quantity of animal health services and livestock producers’ access to these services through private and/or private-public partnerships in order to decrease YASM. Designing and implementing policies and institutional interventions which enable private and private-public investment interventions in animal feed, genetics, animal feed and animal husbandry. Key results and conclusions Profitability, GDP and nutritional impacts The return on investment (ROI) in the livestock sector is very attractive and has significant impact on household incomes (Table 1) and food and nutrition security, as well as the national economy. For all species and commodity value chains, the internal rate of return (IRR) obtained was greater than 10% (the assumed project financial discount rate), except for the investment in cattle ranches in the coastal and lake zone (IRR = 6.6%). The other IRRs ranging from 15–86% indicate the substantial financial viability of all other investments. The incremental change in GDP in 2031 due to livestock investment interventions as compared to the base year of 2016 was also found to be very large. The incremental change was more than 80% in all cases and the highest incremental change of 4,696% was observed for cattle fattening. In comparison with the ‘without additional investment’ scenario in 2031, the ‘with additional investment’ intervention resulted in an increase of GDP which varied from 8% for cattle ranching in central zone to 1,187% for cattle fattening. 4 Tanzania livestock master plan Table 1: Profitability, GDP and nutritional impacts of investment in the livestock sector by year 2031 Value chain and production zone Internal rate of return (IRR) Increase in GDP contribution from additional investments in livestock by 2031 by production system and zone % change in nutrition contribution In comparison with the base year 2015/16 In comparison with the without additional investment in 2031 Calories Protein Improved traditional cattle small-scale (central) 34% 87% 8% 8 22 Improved traditional cattle medium-to large scale (central) 18% 10 49 Ranch cattle (central) 39% NA NA Improved traditional cattle—small-scale (coastal and lake) 77% 131% 57% 5 15 Improved traditional cattle medium-to large scale (coastal and lake) 58% 35 105 Ranch cattle (coastal and lake) 6.6% Improved traditional cattle—small-scale (highlands) 18% 196% 48% 2 5 Improved traditional cattle—large-scale (highlands) 15% 25 Ranch cattle (highlands) 73% NA NA Urban and peri-urban dairy cattle small-scale (all zones) 35% 1,748% 958% 2 42 Urban and peri-urban dairy cattle medium- to large-scale (all zones) 73% 14 114 Cattle fattening (all zones) 72% 4,696% 1,187% NA NA Improved traditional pigs small-scale (all zones) 86% 651% 165% 3 1 Improved traditional pigs—medium- to large scale (all zones) 17% 8 5 Specialized pig operation (all zones) 22% 1 2 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The nutritional impact was also assessed in terms of the percentage change in livestock contribution to calories and protein. The increase in calories varied from only 1% for specialized pig operations to 35% for medium- to large-scale improved traditional cattle. The percentage change in contribution to protein varied from 1% for small-scale improved pigs to 105% for medium- to large-scale improved traditional cattle. It is important to note that the investment in improved traditional pigs is most profitable, but it contributes potentially least to household nutrition while the investment in medium- to large-scale cattle (coastal and lake zone) is modest in return on investment, but it also has the highest potential nutritional impact of the meat operations (assuming the meat is consumed in the household and not sold). Meanwhile, urban and peri-urban dairy cattle, medium- to large-scale (in all zones) also has significant potential to contribute to household nutritional security (again assuming the meat is consumed in the household and not sold). Production-consumption balance Without additional investments in the sector the projected red meat production-consumption gap in 15 years (by 2031/32) is estimated to be 1.7 million tonnes, driven by existing poor animal genetics, health, and feed constraints. Moreover, the scenario analysis with the current level of dairy investments shows that there will be a production consumption gap/deficit of 5.8 million litres in 15 years. These projected deficits will also be driven by a high human population, increased incomes, urbanization, and income elasticity of demand, leading to very high projected growth in consumption of animal-source foods. 5Tanzania livestock master plan The key results and conclusions of the ‘with additional investment’ scenario analysis in the LSA for each priority livestock value chain are as follows: Red meat The extremely limited access to land for grazing and feed production, and limited ability to raise the genetic potential of local ruminant breeds in the medium- to long-term (15 years) mean that the red meat production shortage is unlikely to be closed in this period (Figure 1). Moreover, additional supply of red meat from ruminants will not contribute much to closing the projected ‘all-meat’ production-consumption gap. Beef is the dominant component of the red meat consumed in Tanzania, along with goat meat and mutton (sheep meat). In the base year of the sector analysis (2016–17), beef accounted for about 82% of the total red meat while goat meat and sheep meat accounted for 14% and 4%, respectively. The projected production-consumption balance indicates that there will be little change in the composition of red meat produced over the coming 15 years, with beef remaining dominant and accounting for 79% of total red meat without additional investment and 82% with additional investment. Figure 1: Production-consumption balance for red meat with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016/17–2031/32. White meat Improving white meat requires a focus on controlling Newcastle disease and African swine fever (ASF) disease in chicken and pigs, respectively, to increase their productivity and their off-take and meat production. Raising productivity would help close the projected all-meat consumption-production gap projected in 15 years, thus helping to achieve better food security and enable red meat exports. In the ‘without additional investment’ scenario, by year 2031/32, a deficit of about 234,000 tonnes of white meat is projected resulting in a total all meat deficit of 2 million tonnes. Moreover, industrializing white meat (chicken and pork) production in large commercial-scale operations and investing in industrial-scale processing for product transformation and value addition would likely lead to lower domestic meat prices, while enabling an increase in exports and foreign exchange earnings by enabling red meat to be exported. However, taking advantage of the benefits of the potential ‘white meat revolution’ would require substantial investments in promotional activities to change tastes and preferences from beef, as well as from local to exotic chicken meat and eggs. 6 Tanzania livestock master plan Figure 2: Production-consumption balance for white meat with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016–2031. All meat The projected all meat production ‘with additional combined investment’ in the livestock sector is estimated at 3.2 million metric tonnes in 2031/32, a 199% increase from the without additional investment scenario. The self-sufficiency rate also increases from 35% to 105%, resulting in a surplus of 158 thousand metric tonnes which represents a potentially exportable quantity of not only primarily beef, but also perhaps other ruminant meats (goat meat and mutton) to surrounding countries, and even surplus chicken and eggs. Figure 3: Production-consumption balance for all meat with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016–2031. 7Tanzania livestock master plan Cow dairy The scenario analysis with the current dairy investment level shows that there would be a production-consumption gap of 5.4 million litres of milk in 15 years (Figure 4). The ‘with investment’ scenario analysis for additional dairy investments shows the gap in projected milk consumption can be closed and a surplus produced through artificial insemination and hormone synchronization, combined with improved feed and health interventions, value addition processing to help ensure a market for fresh milk, and complementary policy changes. Thus, with additional investments there could be a surplus of about 0.5 million litres of milk in 2031/32 which would provide raw material for domestic industries and export, after meeting domestic consumption requirements. Figure 4: Production-consumption balance for cow milk with and without additional investments for Tanzania, 2016–2031. Main results and conclusions of the livestock sector analysis • Significantly increasing poultry production and consumption is key for increasing the contribution of animal-source foods in achieving greater household and national food security. • The projected gap in milk demand could be closed and a surplus produced through the use of artificial insemination and hormone synchronization for breed improvement, combined with feed and health interventions addressing YASM. • Livestock genetic improvement priorities should focus on dairy crossbreeds and exotic chicken pure breeds for both family and large-scale investment. • Animal health interventions for YASM (vaccinations, parasite control) are critical to ensure improved productivity, thereby increasing animal and product off-take of meat and dairy. • Feed is the biggest constraint to animal productivity improvement. Challenges of access to land appropriate for grazing, and land for feed production need to be addressed to overcome the existing animal feed deficit. • Land allocation and ownership policies need to change to favour the investments required to increase feed for meat and milk production. • The policy priority should focus on creating a more conducive environment for investment in commercial meat and milk production and processing. • The huge projected deficit in consumption of red meat is driven by an increasing human population and urbanization as well as rapid income growth. • Emphasis to improve cattle off-take needs to focus on increasing beef production from on-farm fattening and commercial feedlots. 8 Tanzania livestock master plan • Red meat production cannot be expected to increase much over time and or to help significantly in closing the projected ‘all meat’ production-consumption gap due to the present limited access to land for feed production and grazing, the need to expand animal health services, and the low genetic potential of local cattle breeds and small ruminants. • Animal health services need to expand dramatically, especially in remote areas where pastoralists predominate, and public-private partnerships could be used where private investments are risky and the returns are low. • Pork is prone to African swine fever and its demand is limited, hence it cannot be a priority solution for closing the meat supply gap. Investing in chicken production has the most potential to close the meat production-consumption gap and could enable export of ruminant animals and red meat. However, domestic consumer preferences for white meat and particularly chicken meat would need significant investment and effort in changing consumer preferences for red meat, especially beef and goat meat. 9Tanzania livestock master plan Dairy development roadmap 2017/18–2021/22 10 Tanzania livestock master plan Dairy development roadmap (2017/18–2021/22) Vision The overall vision of the dairy development roadmap is increased milk production that meets the domestic demand and the surplus is exported. This goal will be achieved by increasing dairy cow productivity through improvements in dairy cow genetics, health and nutrition and by expanding the national dairy cow herd and improving the processing and marketing of dairy products. Overall target The number of crossbred dairy cattle at the national level will increase by about 3.8 times from the current 783,000 to 2,985,000 by 2021/22. Table 2: Current and projected number of crossbred cattle by production zone in Tanzania Livestock production zone Number of crossbred cattle in improved family dairy and commercial specialized dairy % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Improved family dairy Coastal and lake 156,857 339,596 568,881 842,297 1,162,868 1,394,338 789 Highlands 375,337 460,801 556,671 665,979 790,043 930,286 148 Total in improved family dairy 532,194 800,397 1,125,552 1,508,276 1,952,911 2,324,624 337 Commercial specialized dairy Commercial specialized 250,800 304,348 369,330 448,185 543,877 660,000 163 National number of crossbreeds 782,995 1,104,745 1,494,882 1,956,462 2,496,788 2,984,624 281 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The production of milk at the national level will increase from 2,159 million litres in the base year to 3,816 million litres in 2021/22, an increase of about 77% over five years. Though most of this change is expected to come from improvement and increased production by dairy cows, improvement of cattle for red meat production will also contribute to milk production (the next section). Productivity improvement interventions in the dairy cow production system will result in 31% increase in the average annualized milk productivity of a cow in traditional and improved family dairy subsystem and a 26% increase in commercial specialized dairy. The national average annualized milk production of a cow will increase from 179 litres to 254 litres over five years (2016/17–2021/22). 11Tanzania livestock master plan Table 3: Current and projected milk production in Tanzania Livestock production zone National and production system milk production (thousand litre) % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Central 848,140 884,466 922,348 961,853 1,003,049 1,046,010 23 Coastal and lake 751,923 841,687 942,166 1,054,641 1,180,542 1,321,474 76 Highlands 344,186 401,149 467,541 544,920 635,106 740,219 115 Commercial specialized dairy 214,885 272,832 346,405 439,819 558,423 709,011 230 Total milk production 2,159,134 2,400,134 2,678,461 3,001,233 3,377,121 3,816,714 77 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 4: Annualized milk productivity of cows in traditional and improved family dairy and commercial specialized dairy subsystems Livestock production zone Milk production per reproductive female per year (litre) % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Traditional and improved family dairy 165 174 184 194 205 216 31 Commercial specialized dairy 1,757 1,839 1,925 2,015 2,108 2,207 26 National 179 192 206 221 237 254 42 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Mainly due to dairy but also red meat improvement interventions, the GDP contribution of milk at the nation level is expected to increase from TZS 808,342 million in 2016/17 to TZS 1,415,671 in 2021/22, a 75% increase (Table 5). Table 5: GDP contribution of milk at national level Livestock product GDP contribution by commodity (TZS million) % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Milk 808,342 904,209 1,011,445 1,131,399 1,265,578 1,415,671 75 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Target production subsystems for cow dairy improvement interventions The dairy production system in Tanzania can be divided into three major categories: traditional cow meat-milk, improved family dairy, and commercial specialized dairy subsystems (Nell et al. 2014). The traditional cow meat milk production subsystem is not specialized on a single commodity and both milk and meat are important products. However, milk is a priority commodity in improved family dairy and commercial specialized dairy subsystems. Both of these subsystems use crossbred/pure temperate dairy breeds like Holstein, Jersey and Ayrshire and they differ mainly on the level of intensification and specialization (Nell et al. 2014). In the improved family dairy subsystem, the level of input by farmers is lower compared to the commercial specialized dairy subsystem. The input level in improved family dairy subsystem depends on marketing opportunities and income from sale of milk. Cattle are kept under semi and zero-grazing settings with cultivated fodder, crop residue and grass cut from communal land providing most of the feed. Channels for selling milk rely on direct marketing of milk to the consumer and milk collection centres. The commercial specialized dairy subsystem is more commercialized and specialized and has higher input of feeds and animal health services compared to the improved family dairy subsystem. This subsystem is divided into small and medium-sized farms, based on herd size. In small farms, farmers keep between two and three mostly crossbred cows that are not mixed with indigenous cattle. Farmers in the medium commercial and specialized dairy subsystem own larger herds of cattle, often more than 100 cows, with a national average of 450 animals. These farms are government or privately-owned farms with their own input delivery systems. The milk produced in these farms is sold directly to milk processing plants or processed within the farms. 12 Tanzania livestock master plan Table 6: Dairy production subsystems in Tanzania Dairy subsystems Herd size Classified under Average milk production (litre/day) Average lactation length (days) Parturition rate Improved family dairy 1-5 Crop-livestock mixed agriculture 6–8 250–270 0.7 Commercial specialized dairy 5-100 (small) >100 (medium) Urban and peri-urban specialized dairy 10–12 310 0.75–0.8 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The development of the cow dairy system in Tanzania is targeted at improving and expanding the improved family dairy subsystems in coastal and lake and highlands zones and the commercial specialized dairy subsystem across the country. Many of the challenges, opportunities, interventions, improvement assumptions and investments are shared between the two subsystems, but are presented separately in this report. Improved family dairy production in coastal and lake, and highlands zones Table 7: Key challenges and strategies related to improved family dairy production No. Key challenges Strategies 1. Feed availability and quality Erratic supply of feed quality and quantity Limited availability and high cost of forage feed and limited supplementation Limited access to land for grazing, production of forage and forage seed due to an unclear land tenure system Mineral deficiencies in most of the forage Strengthening the extension service and training on forage production, conservation and feeding Policy interventions to make land available for investors for forage seed and forage production Enforcing feed and forage seed quality standards Using appropriate fertilizers in forage production. 2. Low genetic potential of indigenous animals for milk production Inadequate and inefficient artificial insemination services Providing training support and incentives to livestock farmers to work as artificial insemination technicians Establishing and strengthening dairy heifer multiplication farms through private, public and private-public joint ventures Promoting, expanding, and strengthening privatization of artificial insemination and hormone synchronization services 3. Animal health services High calf mortality Inefficient animal health services Inadequate supply of drugs Poor quality control of drugs and supplies High prevalence of transboundary diseases and trypanosomosis Rationalizing and strengthening the animal health regulatory capacity at the national and local government authorities (LGAs) levels under the coordination of the MLF Improving availability and quality control of vaccines and drugs 4. Marketing and processing Unreliable transport system Narrow product range which is concentrated on short shelf-life products i.e. liquid and fermented milk Poor milk marketing and low price of milk Fluctuations in milk supply due to seasonality (dry and wet seasons) An absence of quality-based pricing incentives Poor milk quality control and enforcement mechanisms Existing informal trade of raw milk which poses threat to spreading zoonoses Limited promotion of dairy-product consumption Promote investment in long shelf-life milk products such as UHT and powdered milk Introduction of quality-based standards and pricing to encourage quality milk supply Strengthen enforcement of milk and milk products quality standards Formalize milk trade by training and licensing milk traders Scale up school-milk feeding program to promote milk consumption 13Tanzania livestock master plan No. Key challenges Strategies 5. Policy Pricing policies have disincentive effects on milk processing Overregulation of the dairy industry resulting to multiple taxes which is a burden to investors Introduction of a protective trade policy that includes increasing import tariffs or bans and/or subsidies for domestically-produced milk products to enable competition with imports Put in place indicative prices for milk products Reduce bureaucracy and facilitate investment in the dairy industry Interventions to achieve targets All production zones are expected to benefit from the cow dairy improvement interventions. Expanding and improving the commercial specialized dairy subsystem will be implemented in all over the country while expanding and improving the improved family dairy subsystem will target coastal and lake, and highlands zones. The major criteria used to select the production zones for improved family dairy subsystems include feed availability, climatic condition (temperature), prevalence of endemic diseases like trypanosomiasis, existing experience in dairying, product marketing infrastructure, and comparative advantage of each zone for dairy. Main activities Feed improvement interventions The feed balance estimate in the costal and lake and highlands zones shows significant deficit. Maintaining moderately high productive crossbred dairy cattle therefore should be accompanied with a significant increase in amount of feed produced/purchased. In the coastal and lake zone, up to 60% and in highlands zone up to 40% of the feed requirement should be either produced/purchased to keep the crossbred dairy cattle productive. The type of feeds produced/ purchased could be: • Improved forage (grass/legumes/fodder trees and shrubs) • Concentrate feeds (locally made and industrial by-products) • Strengthen the existing forage/forage seed/ quality control laboratories Genetic improvement interventions • Use artificial insemination with and without hormone synchronization and/or proven bulls for crossbreeding/ breeding. • Increase the number of crossbred cattle in the improved family dairy system through crossbreeding/breeding of indigenous and crossbred cattle using exotic dairy cattle breeds like Friesian, Ayrshire, Jersey, Brown Swiss and Mpwapwa. • Strengthen existing national and zonal artificial insemination centres and establish a new semen production centre. • Acquire five new liquid nitrogen plants • Training and capacity building for 6,650 artificial insemination technicians • Encourage establishment of bull centres • Encourage establishment of crossbred heifer multiplication farms • Purchase and distribute crossbred heifers for under-resourced dairying beginners (2,000 every year) • Sensitize farmers on the formation of breed societies Animal health improvement interventions • Set up an East Coastal fever vaccination program to vaccinate of 300,000 dairy cattle annually. 14 Tanzania livestock master plan • Implement vaccination campaign for foot-and-mouth disease, Rift Valley fever, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, brucellosis, East Coastal fever, transboundary diseases and perform routine internal and external parasite control programs. • Improve the capacity for livestock disease surveillance and diagnosis. • Rehabilitate veterinary centres. Milk and dairy products improvement interventions • Provide incentives and ease the bureaucracy for investors seeking to establish milk processing plants. • In addition to small- and medium-scale pasteurized milk processing plants; promote establishment of high capacity milk processing plants (at least two processing plants: one UHT milk and one milk powder). • Promote the establishment of and strengthen the dairy cooperative/societies in high potential areas through training, sensitization, equipping and facilities. • Encourage/establish at least 150 milk collection centres/chilling plants (cold chain). • Strengthen the Dairy Board (office and laboratory) to improve quality regulation and marketing of milk in milk shed areas • Strengthen the capacity of the milk quality assessment and safety control laboratory • Strength school-milk feeding programs to benefit 500,000 children in five years–starting from 100,000 children on the base year and adding new 100,000 children every year. Extension services improvement interventions Training to livestock keepers and improved family dairy farmers on better husbandry, breed improvement and feeding practices. Assumptions and targets of interventions and outputs Farmers adopting the cow dairy improvement interventions will have higher cost of feed and veterinary services due to following up of the recommended frequency of vaccination, internal and external parasite treatments. The veterinary cost of adopting farmers is expected to be doubled from TZS 7,500 to TZS 15,000. Moreover, due to the current shortage of feed, the per cent of feed purchased will increase to between 7–15% of the feed requirement of cattle in improved family dairy subsystems, from the current 0% purchase. Feed produced in the farm is also expected to grow likewise. Cattle receiving the dairy improvement interventions are expected to show the following improvements in productivity: • Parturition rate increased from 0.58 to 0.70 in coastal and lake zone and from 0.60 to 0.70–0.75 in the highlands zone. • Mortality rate decreased by 50%. • Live weight of cattle increased by 7–20% in both coastal and lake and highlands zones • Lactation length of local breed cattle in coastal and lake and highlands zones increased from 180 to 250 days and 270 days for small and medium improved family dairy crossbred cattle subsystems, respectively. • Daily milk production of local breed cattle in coastal and lake and highlands zones increased from the current 1.5 and 2 litres/day, respectively, to 8 litres/day in improved family dairy crossbred dairy cattle. At the national level, the dairy improvement intervention is expected to result in increases of crossbred dairy cattle numbers and milk production in the improved family dairy subsystem. 15Tanzania livestock master plan The number of crossbred dairy cattle in improved family dairy (coastal and lake, and highlands) subsystem increases from 532,194 to 2,324,624 in 2021/22 (Table 2) The cow dairy improvement intervention in improved family dairy subsystems of coastal and lake and highlands zones will result in increase of milk production from 1,096 million litres in 2016/17 to 2,062 million litres in 2021/22. Table 8: Increase in milk production due to cow dairy improvement in improved family dairy subsystem of coastal and lake, and highlands zones Livestock production zone Milk production in improved family dairy subsystem (thousand litre) % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Coastal and lake 751,923 841,687 942,166 1,054,641 1,180,542 1,321,474 76 Highlands 344,186 401,149 467,541 544,920 635,106 740,219 115 Total milk production 1,096,109 1,242,836 1,409,707 1,599,561 1,815,648 2,061,693 88 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 9: Average daily milk production change per cow in coastal and lake, and highlands zones due to cow dairy improvement interventions in improved family dairy subsystem Livestock production zone Average daily milk production per reproductive female (litre) % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Coastal and lake 1.50 1.62 1.74 1.88 2.02 2.18 45 Highlands 2.00 2.14 2.30 2.47 2.65 2.84 42 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The average annualized milk production of a cow in the improved family dairy subsystem of coastal and lake zone increases from the 157 litres in 2015/16 to 240 litres in 2020/21. The average annualized milk production of a cow in improved family dairy subsystem of highlands zone increases from the current 215 litres to 343 litres in 2020/21. Table 10: Annualized milk production of cow in coastal and lake and highlands zones Livestock production zone Milk production per reproductive female per year % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Coastal and lake 157 171 186 202 220 240 53 Highlands 215 236 259 285 313 343 59 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Investments The investments in cow dairy cattle development in the coastal and lake and highlands zones can be categorized into six major groups—feed, breed, health, extension, research, and marketing improvement investments. Investments related to feed improvement include improving pasture and forage and concentrate feed production and marketing through construction of commercial animal feed plants, improving existing feed and forage seed quality control laboratories (equipment and human resource capacity building). This is estimated to cost a total of TZS 44 billion. The investment to improve animal health is shared with cattle, sheep and goats as many of the interventions will serve all the three species. Animal health improvement investments will support the vaccination campaign to control and prevent East Coastal fever, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, foot-and-mouth disease, Rift Valley fever, and brucellosis and improve the capacity of veterinary centres, diagnostic laboratories for surveillance and diagnosis and construction and rehabilitation of dip tanks. Similar to the health improvement investments, investments to improve livestock extension services will serve all ruminant species. 16 Tanzania livestock master plan Cattle breed improvement investment is estimated to cost around TZS 52.6 billion for over five years. This investment will be aimed at strengthening existing national and zonal artificial insemination centres, establishing a new semen production centre, acquiring new liquid nitrogen plants, training and building the capacity of 6,650 artificial insemination technicians, establishing bull centres, purchasing and distributing crossbred heifers for under-resourced farmers, and establishing crossbred heifer multiplication farms. Investments to improve the capacity of research centres to carry out research on breed improvement, feed, health, marketing and value chain and dairy extension services are estimated to cost up to TZS 22 billion. Investment to improve milk marketing and processing is estimated to cost over TZS 106 billion. The construction of UHT and milk powder processing plants, formation and strengthening of dairy cooperative societies in high potential areas (training, sensitization, equipping and facilities), establishing milk collection/ chilling centres (cold chain), strengthening dairy board to regulate milk quality in lake and coastal, and highlands zones, strengthening the capacity of milk quality and safety control laboratory and school-milk feeding programs is expected to improve the marketing and processing of milk. Table 11: Five-year dairy improvement investment (2017/18–2021/22) S/no Investment intervention Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total 1 Animal feeding i Pasture establishment and paddocking Land preparation, pasture establishment and paddocking in newly-established 150 medium farms (50 Ha) 7,920 7,920 7,920 7,920 7,920 39,600 Private–100% ii Commercial animal feeds plants Construction of two plants (TZS 1,100 million per plant) 1,100 - 1,100 - 2,200 Private–100% iii Feeding technologies and land acquisition (production, processing and storage) for newly established 150 medium farms 176 176 176 176 176 880 Public–80% Private–20% iv Feed quality control (laboratories and capacity building) and improving the existing (first five years) 440 - - - 440 Public–100% v Strengthen the existing pasture/forage seed quality control laboratories 880 - - - - 880 Public–100% Subtotal 8,976 9,636 8,096 9,196 8,096 44,000 2 Animal health - - - - - i East Coastal fever vaccination program for 300,000 dairy cattle per year - - - - - Income mentioned in red meat improvement scenario ii Implement programs for eradication of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, foot and-mouth disease, Rift Valley fever (capacity for surveillance, diagnosis and vaccination campaign) - - - - iii Rehabilitate 100 veterinary centres - - - - - 3 Animal breeding and genetics investments i Strengthen existing national and establish a new semen production centre 2,200 - 11,000 - - 13,200 Public–100% ii Strengthen existing and acquire two liquid nitrogen plants 1,100 - 1,100 - 2,200 Public ii Training and capacity building for 6,650 artificial insemination technicians 554 554 554 554 554 2,772 Public–10% Private–90% iii Establishing bull centres and purchase 20 proven bulls 198 198 198 198 198 990 Private–50% Public–50% iv Purchase and distribution of crossbred heifers for under-resourced dairying beginners (2,000 every year) 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 22,000 Public–90% Private–10% v Strengthen existing LMUs and establish four crossbred heifer multiplication farms 2,750 - 2,750 2,750 2,750 11,000 Public-private partnership 50%/50% 17Tanzania livestock master plan S/no Investment intervention Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total vii Sensitize farmers on the formation of breed societies 440 - - - - 440 Public–50% Private–50% Subtotal 10,542 6,252 18,902 9,002 7,902 52,602 4 Extension - - - - - - Income mentioned in red meat improvement scenario Strengthening extension services for dissemination of appropriate livestock technologies - - - - 5 Research Research on breed improvement, feeds and forage, animal health and value addition of livestock products and by-products 10,000 - 12,000 - 22,000 Public–100% Subtotal - - 22,000 - - 22,000 6 Marketing and value addition - - - - - i Construction of 1 UHT in coastal and lake, and 1 milk powder processing plant in highlands zone 11,000 17,600 - - 28,600 Public-private partnership– 50%/50% ii Formation and strengthening of dairy cooperative and primary societies in high potential areas (training, sensitization, equipping and facilities) 220 220 220 220 220 1,100 Public–50% Private–50% iii Establish 150 milk collection/chilling centres (cold chain) 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 9,900 Public–50% Private–50% iv Strengthen Dairy Board to regulate milk quality in highlands, lake and coastal zones in four milk sheds (office and laboratory) 550 - - - - 550 Public–100% v Strengthen the capacity of milk quality and safety control laboratory at the Tanzania Veterinary Laboratory Agency (TVLA) 330 - - - - 330 Public–100% vi School-milk feeding programs to benefit 500,000 children 4,400 8,800 13,200 17,600 22,000 66,000 Public-private partnership– 50%/50% Subtotal 7,480 22,000 33,000 19,800 24,200 106,480 Grand total investment 26,998 47,888 59,998 49,998 40,198 225,082 Public–47% Private–53% Impacts Return on investment (ROI) The herd level internal rate of return (IRR) for the 15-year investment in improved family dairy systems of small cattle herds in coastal and lake, and highlands zones is 13.7% and 23.1% with a net present value (NPV) of TZS 605,735 and TZS 8,514,420, respectively. The herd level IRR for 15-year investment in improved family dairy systems of medium cattle herds in coastal and lake, and highlands zones is 7.5% and 20.4% with NPV of 350,593 and 26,615,979 TZS, respectively. Milk production Due to the dairy and red meat improvement interventions in coastal and lake, and highlands zones, the production of milk in the zones is expected to increase from 751,923 and 214,885 thousand litres to 1,321,444 and 740,539 thousand litres over five years (2016-2020), respectively. An increase of 76% in coastal and lake zone and 115% in highlands zone (Table 8). GDP impacts Mainly due to dairy but also with a small contribution of red meat improvement intervention, the GDP contribution of milk for coastal and lake, and highlands zones is expected to increase from TZS 273,437 and TZS 149,567 in 2015/16 18 Tanzania livestock master plan to TZS 449,468 and TZS 319,269 million in 2019/20, respectively. This will result in a 64% growth in contribution of milk to the national GDP from the coastal and lake zone and by 113% growth in the highlands zone. Table 12: Change in GDP contribution of milk in coastal and lake and highlands zones Livestock production zone GDP contribution of milk (million TZS) % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Coastal and lake 273,437 302,053 333,664 368,584 407,157 449,768 64 Highlands 149,567 174,061 202,565 235,737 274,342 319,269 113 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Additional increase in income from dairy investments • Dairy improvement interventions in the coastal and lake, and highlands zones will result in a 5-22% increase in income per animal when ‘without’ and ‘with additional investments’ scenarios are compared (Table 12). Table 13: Change in income per animal due to dairy improvement interventions in improved family dairy Production zone/system Herd size Income per animal (without additional investment) Income per animal (with additional investment) % change coastal and lake zone Small herd 85,021 89,397 5 Medium herd 79,121 83,865 6 Highlands zone Small herd 114,646 132,463 16 Medium herd 93,684 114,122 22 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 14: Activities time line and sequencing: Gantt chart Activities Investment activities timing 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Encourage establishment of new commercial dairy farms Encourage establishment of new commercial dairy feed processing plants Strengthen existing feed and seed quality control laboratories (equipment and capacity building) Strengthen existing national and establish a new semen production centre. Acquire two new liquid nitrogen plants Training and capacity building of 6,650 artificial insemination technicians Establishment of bull centres Purchase and distribution of crossbred heifers for under resources dairying beginners (2,000 every year) Establish crossbred heifers’ multiplication farms Sensitize farmers on formation of breed societies 19Tanzania livestock master plan Activities Investment activities timing 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Construction and rehabilitation of dip tanks Support the vaccination campaign of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, foot-and-mouth disease, Rift Valley fever, peste des petits ruminants, contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, and brucellosis and improve the capacity of veterinary centres, diagnostic laboratories for surveillance and diagnosis Strengthening the capacity of existing livestock training institutes Establish and/or strengthen ward livestock resource centres and provide extension officers with the necessary equipment (toolkit) Training to livestock keepers and improved family dairy farmers on better husbandry, breed improvement and feeding practices Research on breed improvement, feeds and forage, animal health and value addition of livestock products and by-products; Encourage construction of UHT and milk powder processing plants Formation and strengthening of dairy cooperative (training, sensitization, equipping and facilities) Establish milk collection/ chilling centres (cold chain) Strengthen Dairy Board to regulate milk quality in highlands, lake and coastal areas in four milk sheds (office and laboratory) Strengthen the capacity of milk quality and safety control laboratory (TVLA) Implement school milk feeding programs to benefit 1,500,000 children Complementary intervention and success requirements The following are crucial aspects of the dairy improvement interventions and success requirements • Plan and carry out extensive crossbreeding/breeding schemes in selected areas using artificial insemination, artificial insemination with hormone synchronizing and/or bull of dairy cattle breeds. 20 Tanzania livestock master plan • Improve the efficiency of existing artificial insemination, artificial insemination with hormone synchronizing and/or bull crossbreeding/breeding services. • Reduce cumbersome procedures to ease land availability for local and foreign investors in feed and dairy production and processing. • Encourage establishment of heifers’ multiplication centres. • Provide continuous training and refresher courses to artificial insemination technicians. • Strengthen the extension service and training to dairy cattle owners in dairy cattle husbandry and milk and milk products handling. • Improve the animal health service. • Enforce forages, concentrate feeds and forage seed quality standards and create conducive environment for production and marketing of feeds and feed seeds. • Enforce milk quality standards and support establishment/functioning of milk processing plants. Commercial specialized dairy production Key challenges and strategies in commercial specialized dairy production Many of the challenges and strategies listed in the improved family dairy section are also pertinent for commercial specialized dairy production. Thus, only specific challenges and strategies which are important to commercial specialized dairy are listed here. Table 15: Key strategies and challenges in commercial specialized dairy production Key challenges Strategies to address challenges 1. Feed availability and quality Cumbersome procedures of owning land for commercial forage production Shortage of concentrate feed and roughage (both in quality and quantity) Lack of effective feed quality control and standards enforcement mechanisms Making land available for commercial forage production by investors Promoting and enforcing outsourcing contracts to produce forage for specialized dairy Enforcing feed quality standards, quality monitoring and control Promoting the establishment of flour mills and oil processing plants which will make more concentrate feed ingredients available i.e. wheat bran, wheat short and seed cakes 2. Marketing and processing Lack of diversity of dairy products and packaging that meets consumption needs of different consumers Shortage of dairy technologists Promoting investment in UHT milk, powdered milk production, and other value-added products like yogurt, ice cream and cheese, etc. Building the capacity of the dairy technology training institute(s) 3. Policy and investment support Poor milk quality control and enforcement mechanisms Few commercial specialized dairy farms and milk processing plants A need for milk-quality standards control and enforcement, as well as grading and pricing policies A need for an effective land acquisition policy for dairy investments (preferential treatment for accessing land for specialized dairy production, milk processing and feed production) A need for incentives for investors to establish dairy processing plants and specialized dairy farms Interventions to achieve targets The major interventions proposed to improve the commercial specialized dairy are feed improvement (production, marketing and processing of feed), increasing the number of crossbred dairy cattle and commercial specialized dairy farms, encouraging private artificial insemination and health service providers and improving marketing of milk and milk products. 21Tanzania livestock master plan Main activities Feed improvement interventions Make land accessible for forage production for the commercial specialized dairy farms and forage producers. Strengthen the existing forage/forage seed/quality control laboratories. Increasing the number of commercial specialized dairy farms Provide incentives to investors and ease the bureaucracy in establishing commercial specialized dairy farms. The number of crossbreed dairy cattle and commercial specialized dairy farms in commercial specialized dairy subsystem is expected to increase by 120–163% and 164%, respectively. The number of commercial specialized dairy farms is targeted to increase from 159,000 to 420,000 in small and from 204–400 farms in medium commercial specialized dairy subsystems (Table 16). The number of crossbred dairy cattle will increase from 159,000 in 2015/56 to 420,000 in 2020/21 in small commercial specialized dairy farms and from 250,800 in 2015/16 to 660,000 in 2020/21 in the medium ones. Table 16: Changes in number of crossbreds and dairy farms in commercial specialized dairy subsystem Livestock production subsystem Items Number of farms and crossbreed cattle in commercial specialized dairy % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Small commercial specialized dairy Herd size 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 No of farms 31,800 37,236 43,601 51,054 59,781 70,000 120 Number of crossbreeds 159,000 193093 234497 284779 345,843 420,000 164 Medium commercial specialized dairy Herd size 450 477 505 535 566 600 33 No of farms 204 233 267 306 350 400 96 Number of crossbreeds 91,800 111,254 134,831 163,404 198,033 240,000 161 Total crossbreds in commercial specialized dairy 250,800 304,348 369,330 448,185 543877 660,000 163 Animal health interventions Improve availability of drugs, vaccines and medical equipment and support to enhance the effectiveness of private health service providers. Improve the availability of vaccines for foot-and-mouth disease, Rift Valley fever, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, East Coastal fever and brucellosis Genetic improvement interventions Encourage private artificial insemination service providers Improving marketing and processing of milk and milk products Interventions proposed to improve marketing and processing of milk and milk products in improved family dairy subsystems equally work for commercial specialized dairy subsystems. 22 Tanzania livestock master plan Assumptions and targets Commercial specialized dairy farmers adopting the cow dairy improvement interventions will increase their cost of acquiring quality feed and veterinary services. • The per cent of feed purchased will increase from 10–17% and 20% in small and medium commercial specialized dairy subsystems • The veterinary cost will increase from TZS 15,000–20,000 per year/cow Cattle receiving the cow dairy improvement interventions are expected to show the following productivity improvements • An increase in parturition rate from 0.70–0.75 in small and up to 0.80 in medium commercial specialized dairy subsystem. • A decline in mortality rate of juveniles from 10–6% in both small and medium commercial specialized dairy. • A daily milk production increase from 8–10 litres in small and 9–12 litres in medium commercial specialized dairy. At the national level, the dairy improvement intervention is expected to result in an increase in the number of crossbred dairy cattle and milk production in the commercial specialized dairy subsystem. • The number of crossbreed dairy cattle will increase from 250,800 to 660,000, a 163% increase in five years (Table 14). • Milk production in the subsystem will increase from 214,885 thousand litres in 2016/17 to 709,011 thousand litres in 2021/22 (Table 3). • The average annualized milk production of a cow in the commercial specialized dairy subsystem is targeted to increase from the current 1,757 litres to 2,207 litres in 2021/22 (Table 4). Investments The investment listed for improved family dairy subsystem, above, equally work for the commercial specialized dairy subsystem and the investment will be shared among both subsystems. Impacts Return on investment The herd level IRR for 15-year investment in commercial specialized dairy of small and medium cattle herd sizes appears to be very high with net present value (NPV) of TZS 7.4 million and TZS 1,384 million, respectively. Milk production Due to the dairy improvement interventions in the commercial specialized dairy, the production of milk in the subsystem is expected to increase from 214,885 thousand litres to 709,011 thousand litres over five years (2016 2020), an increase of 230% (Table 3). GDP impacts Dairy improvement interventions in the commercial specialized dairy will increase milk’s contribution to GDP from commercial specialized dairy subsystem from the current TZS 76,678 million to TZS 276,130 million, a 247% increase in five years (Table 17). 23Tanzania livestock master plan Table 17: GDP contribution of cow milk production in the commercial specialized dairy subsystem Livestock production Contribution of cow milk (TZS millions) % change Base year (2016/17) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Commercial specialized dairy subsystem 79,678 102,163 130,993 167,959 215,357 276,130 247 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Additional increase in income from dairy investments Dairy improvement interventions in commercial specialized dairy system resulted in 30-31% increase in income per animal when ‘without’ and ‘with additional investments’ scenarios are compared (Table 18). Table 18: Change in income per animal due to dairy improvement interventions in commercial specialized dairy Production zone/system Herd size Income per animal (without additional investment) Income per animal (with additional investment) % change Commercial specialized dairy Small herd 311,068 408,949 31 Medium herd 643,394 834,544 30 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Activities time line and sequencing: Gantt chart The Gantt chart presented in the improved family dairy improvement section, above, works equally well for both commercial specialized dairy and improved family dairy subsystems. Complementary intervention and success requirements The following are crucial aspects of the dairy improvement interventions and success requirements for the commercial specialized dairy subsystem. • Provide incentives to investors and ease the bureaucracy in establishing commercial specialized dairy farms. • Make land accessible for forage production for commercial specialized dairy farms and forage producers. • Encourage establishment of heifer multiplication centres. • Enforce milk quality standards and support the establishment and functioning of milk processing plants. • Enforce forages, concentrate feed and forage seed quality standards and create conducive environment for production and marketing of feeds and feed seeds. • Improve availability of drugs, vaccines and medical equipment and support to enhance the role of private health and artificial insemination service providers. Dairy production and consumption balance The projected quantities of cow milk consumption and production ‘with additional investment’ and ‘without investment’ over the five-year LMP period are shown in Figure 5. Without investment, it is projected the production gap will start developing toward the end of the plan period and investment is, therefore, required to avoid production gaps during and beyond the LMP period. 24 Tanzania livestock master plan Figure 5: Projected cow milk consumption and production with and without investment, 2017–2022 (in thousand tonnes). Conclusions The interventions proposed to improve cattle milk production and productivity will transform traditional farms engaged in family dairy into improved and more market-oriented family dairy systems by: • raising and realizing the genetic potential of local breeds for significantly higher milk production through crossbreeding with exotic dairy breeds using artificial insemination with or without hormone synchronization and bull semen, combined with better feed and health services. Milk production and productivity of the commercial dairy system will also increase significantly by: • bringing more crossbred cattle into the commercial cattle dairy system, and • increasing the availability of forage feeds by improving forage feed production and marketing. Local cattle, or the vast majority of individual animals, also offer a huge potential for bridging the gap between the national milk consumption and production. The interventions–mainly targeted at improving animal reproductive and weight gain performance–also affect milk production and productivity significantly in all typology zones. These interventions will be achieved by: • Improving the natural grazing (pasture and range) land, coupled with health interventions to reduce mortality. These combined interventions will result in: A 77% increase in national cattle milk production from 2,087 million litres in 2017 to 3,687 million litres in 2022 (over the five-year development plan period). The production of a surplus of 1,002 million litres of cow milk over projected domestic consumption requirements by year 2022. This surplus could substitute for imported milk products and be used domestically for new or additional industrial purposes or exported as milk powder or UHT (Figure 5) to raise foreign exchange earnings. 25Tanzania livestock master plan In addition to the above activities, the critical conditions which need emphasis for success of the plan are: • Encouraging the private sector to invest in milk processing plants and dairy farms. • Ensuring availability of more and better feed seed, forage production and marketing. and health services in all areas, whether breed improvement is implemented or not. • Ensuring more effective extension services to support production, processing and marketing of quality milk. 26 Tanzania livestock master plan Red meat systems roadmap 2017/17–2021/22 27Tanzania livestock master plan Red meat systems roadmap (2017/17–2021/22) Tanzania produces about 493,000 metric tonnes of red meat (by year 2016/2017) whereby 83% is beef and the remainder comes from sheep and goats. Most of this produce (97%) come from pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. The red meat produced is predominately for domestic consumption, with little exports. The country still has not been able to meet its domestic demand for red meat, and meeting this demand, as well as exploiting the export potential for red meat, are possible only if the limitations of unavailable resources, such as animal feeds, are overcome. Vision The projected year 2021 domestic demand gap for red meat arising due to rapidly growing population, increasing urbanization, and rising incomes is reduced; and live animal and meat exports are increased to generate foreign exchange earnings. Overall target To reach production of 742,000 tonnes of red meat by year 2021, through improvement of grazing land resources, animal health, and genetics; and use of appropriate feeding technology. By 2021, a total of 2 million heads of animals passing through the ranch, feedlot and non-traditional (culled dairy cattle) operations is achieved; and the contribution of the traditional sector to the overall red meat produced is reduced from the current level of 97% to 10%. Improved traditional red meat production Targets Interventions aimed at increasing traditional red meat output are expected to bring the following changes: • An increase in the area of the grazing/pasture from 10–13%. • Promoting allocation and establishment of pasture/fodder production areas from almost 0%, at present, to 5%. • Increasing the parturition rate from 4–5%. • Reducing mortality rate to 25–50% for all age and sex categories. • An increase in dressing percentage by 2%. • Live weight increase by 10% for all age and sex categories. • Off-take rate increases from 10–16% for small-scale farms; 10–14% for medium-scale farms; and from 18–26% in ranches. 28 Tanzania livestock master plan • Increasing the herd size of ranches by a range of 10–37% through purchasing of additional heifers in the first three to four years; and maintain constant herd size, once the carrying capacity is achieved. • The number of ranches increased by 18%. • The number of cattle in a fattening cycle, in feedlots, increased by 33%. • The number of fattening cycles per year, in a feedlot, increased by 17%. • To increase the number of feedlot units by over 100%. Table 19: Annual increase in number of cattle Production zone 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Traditional cattle system Central 13,583,842 14,098,320 14,632,283 15,186,470 15,761,646 16,358,606 20 Coastal and lake 11,985,328 12,301,694 12,626,411 12,959,700 13,301,786 13,652,901 14 Highlands 3,912,379 4,095,903 4,288,036 4,489,182 4,699,763 4,920,222 26 Total 29,481,549 30,495,917 31,546,730 32,635,351 33,763,194 34,931,729 18 Ranching system Central 12,330 12,988 13,682 14,413 15,182 15,993 30 Coastal and lake 19,297 19,525 19,755 19,988 20,224 20,463 6 Highlands 41,400 46,037 51,193 56,927 63,303 70,393 70 Total 73,027 78,550 84,630 91,328 98,709 106,848 46 Cattle* in feedlot Feedlot 78,111 115,878 171,905 255,020 378,323 561,242 619 Dairy subsector 260,293 315,888 383,356 465,235 564,601 685,191 163 Total 338,404 431,765 555,261 720,255 942,924 1,246,432 268 * The number includes culled cattle from the dairy subsector that are sent for fattening at feedlots Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania • The total number of cattle in the three production zones shows an 18% increase (29–34 million by 2021/22). • The total number of cattle in the ranching system shows a growth of 46% (from 73,000 heads in 2016/17 to 106,000 in 2021/22). • The number of cattle (local cattle and those culled cattle from dairy operations) reaching the feedlots show a 268% increase (from 338,404 heads to 1.2 million heads by 2021). Table 20: Annual increase in number of sheep and goats in the traditional system Production zone 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Sheep Central 1,976,019 2,050,120 2,127,000 2,206,762 2,289,516 2,375,373 20 Coastal and lake 2,409,396 2,488,665 2,570,542 2,655,113 2,742,466 2,832,693 18 Highlands 757,303 782,370 808,266 835,020 862,659 891,213 18 Total 5,142,718 5,321,155 5,505,808 5,696,895 5,894,641 6,099,279 19 Goats Central 6,682,562 7,052,939 7,443,845 7,856,416 8,291,855 8,751,427 31 Coastal and lake 7,540,489 8,120,743 8,745,647 9,418,639 10,143,419 10,923,972 45 Highlands 3,495,950 3,665,154 3,842,547 4,028,526 4,223,507 4,427,925 27 Total 17,719,001 18,838,835 20,032,039 21,303,582 22,658,780 24,103,323 36 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 29Tanzania livestock master plan The total sheep population shows a 19% increase (reaches 6 million by 2021/22). The total number of goats in all production zones showed an increase of 36% by 2021/22 (from 17 million in 2016/17 to 24 million in 2021/22). Table 21: Contribution of cattle to national red meat production (in tonnes) Meat production 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/2022 % change Cattle in traditional system Central 171,523 181,562 192,188 203,436 215,343 227,946 33 Coastal and lake 156,875 165,207 173,981 183,222 192,953 203,201 30 Highlands 65,566 70,923 76,718 82,985 89,765 97,099 48 Total 393,964 417,692 442,887 469,643 498,060 528,245 34 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 22: Contribution of cattle ranching system to the national red meat production (in tonnes) Production zone 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/2022 % change Central 284 296 309 322 336 350 23 Coastal and lake 425 505 600 713 847 1,006 136 Highlands 1,042 1,146 1,260 1,385 1,522 1,674 61 Total 1,752 1,947 2,169 2,420 2,705 3,029 73 Cattle from feedlots fattening and the dairy subsector Feedlot 7,433 11,454 17,648 27,194 41,902 64,565 769 Dairy subsector 5,376 6,603 8,110 9,961 12,235 15,028 180 Total 12,809 18,056 25,758 37,155 54,137 79,593 521 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The potential contribution of cattle to red meat overall production zones grows from 393,964 tonnes in 2016/17 to 528,245 tonnes by 2021/22 (a 34% increase). The contribution of cattle ranching system to red meat production grows from 1,752 tonnes in 2016/17 to 3,029 tonnes by 2021/22 (a 73% increase). The contribution of feedlot and dairy subsector system to the national red meat production grows from 12,809 tonnes in 2016/17 to 79,593 tonnes by 2021/22 (a 521% increase). Table 23: Per cent contribution of cattle to national red meat by production system Production system 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/2022 % change Cattle Traditional 97.05% 96.23% 95.12% 93.61% 91.58% 88.87% -8.43 Ranches 0.35% 0.37% 0.38% 0.39% 0.40% 0.41% 15.02 Feedlots 1.51% 2.16% 3.09% 4.39% 6.20% 8.70% 477.73 Culled commercial dairy cattle 1.09% 1.24% 1.42% 1.61% 1.81% 2.02% 85.94 Total 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 24: Contribution of sheep meat to national red meat production (in tonnes) Meat production 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/2022 % change Sheep Central 6,242 6,738 7,273 7,850 8,473 9,146 47 Coastal and lake 11,059 11,670 12,314 12,993 13,710 14,467 31 Highlands 3,149 3,361 3,587 3,829 4,087 4,362 39 Total 20,450 21,768 23,174 24,672 26,270 27,975 37 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The amount of sheep meat produced grows from 20,450 tonnes in 2016/17 to 27,975 tonnes by 2021/22 (a 37% increase).The amount of goat meat produced grows from 64,894 tonnes in 2016/17 to 103,681 tonnes by 2021/22 (a 60% increase). Table 25: Contribution of goat meat to national red meat production (in tonnes) Production system 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/2022 % change Central 25,096 27,246 29,579 32,113 34,863 37,849 51 Coastal and lake 26,373 29,516 33,033 36,970 41,375 46,305 76 Highlands 13,424 14,469 15,595 16,809 18,117 19,527 45 Total 64,894 71,231 78,208 85,891 94,355 103,681 60 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Challenges and strategies Table 26: Key challenges and strategies in enhancing red meat production in Tanzania Challenges Strategies Feed Lack of sufficient grazing areas to meet the feed needs of the animals Poor-quality grazing land resources Inadequate knowledge on the use of crop residues and by-products Limited availability of concentrates and feed supplements, when needed. Rehabilitation of rangeland/grazing land Acquiring substantial additional area for grazing land and for pasture/fodder production Training and capacity building and skill development to increase the use of crop residues and by-products Increased and better use of agro-industrial by-products from the processing of cereal/grains/oil seeds/sugarcane as concentrates for animal feeding. Promote appropriate storage and marketing of concentrates and feed supplements Genetics Low genetic improvement extension coverage Poor animal data recording system Selection within the local breeds Establishing community-based breeding programs, which include developing an animal recording scheme Promoting animal identification and traceability scheme. Animal health Poor animal health extension services Inefficient animal health services Inadequate supplies and qualities of vaccines and drugs Poor control of drugs and supplies strengthening animal health regulatory capacity under the coordination of the livestock ministry Marketing and processing Poor market infrastructure Poor technical knowledge of value chain actors, especially processors and technicians Inadequate market information Poor linkages between producers, processors and export abattoirs. Strategic capacity building spearheaded by the second phase of the agricultural sector development program (ASDPII) Building additional infrastructure. Policy Absence of a breeding policy Loss of land to alternative investments outside livestock A lack of protective trade policies Developing clearly defined guidelines on land use and access rights Implementing appropriate land policies. Gazetting grazing land Interventions to achieve targets1 Most of interventions for red meat production are expected to be done in the central, and coastal and lake production zones. The interventions in these zones do not involve artificial insemination and genetic progress through improved selection of indigenous breeds is anticipated to be slow. The main proposed technological interventions in the central zone are: • Feed improvement through better range management, oversowing with grass and legumes, and the control of invasive species. The intervention to improve rangeland productivity includes water development and rangeland improvement by shrub clearing, and the application of thinning technique where major shrub encroachment takes place. • Reduction in young and adult stock mortality: The relevant health interventions include improving access to quality of veterinary services through rationalized use of public/private veterinary services; parasite control and treatment and vaccinations. • Breed improvement through better selection and management of male breeding animals. • Introduction of a herd/flock recording scheme for breed improvement. However, other interventions will target the research, extension, market and value additions for the red meat products. In the highlands zone, the following interventions will be carried out: • Breed improvement, involving artificial insemination with semen of exotic breed primarily for dairy development. However, the culled dairy cattle will be channelled to beef production. • Breed management and improvement through the implementation of a herd/flock recording scheme. • Training/extension to improve the capacity of farmers to select and manage male breeding animals. • The reduction of young and adult stock mortality with vaccines and anti-parasites. • The introduction of integrated fodder crops with food crops. • The timely harvesting of grass, and storage and conservation of hay from communal grazing lands. • Increased efficiency of crop residue use (proper storage, supplementation, treatment including physical treatment chopping, and urea). • Oversowing and rotational grazing. Investments • The time span of the project is five years. • Total investment budget is estimated at TZS 342,240 million where by 56% of the budget source is public. Private, and public-private partnerships will provide 43% and 1% of the total budget, respectively (Table 27) to be spent over the five years. • For all the scenarios, the annual discount rate assumed is 10%, which is the assumed current social opportunity cost of capital in Tanzania. Thirty-six per cent (36%) of the investment budget will cater for animal breeding and genetics. However, 75% of this budget will be sourced from the private sector (Table 28). Most of the public fund (60%) will be used in animal feeding and health interventions. The public-private partnerships will only suffice some budget for marketing and value addition which generally has the big proportion of public funds. 1. The detailed red meat interventions for all production are presented in the LSA report. Table 27: Total investment and recurrent costs red meat production Investment category Responsible actor (TZS million) Total investment cost (TZS million) Public Private Public-private partnerships Animal feeding 57,607 21,625 79,231 Animal health 58,087 6,888 64,975 Animal breeding and genetics 12,230 109,574 121,804 Research 5,940 1,760 7,700 Extension services 9,900 1,100 11,000 Marketing and value addition 47,414 5,817 4,300 57,530 Total investment 191,177 146,763 4,300 342,240 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 28: The per cent contribution of public, private and public-private partnerships investments for red meat production Key investment area Proportion by responsible actor Proportions by key investment areaPublic Private Public-private partnerships Animal feeding 30% 15% 23% Animal health 30% 5% 19% Animal breeding and genetics 6% 75% 36% Research 3% 1% 2% Extension services 5% 1% 3% Marketing and value addition 25% 4% 100% 17% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania About 46% of the investment budget will be allocated to the central zone. The coastal and lake zone will use 42% of the t budget the remaining portion will be used in the highlands zone. Central zone • The time span for the project is five years. • The investment cost is estimated at TZS 156 billion (see Table 29, 30 and 31) to be spent over the five years span of the project, covering animal feeding, animal health, breeding, research, extension services, marketing and value addition. • For all the scenarios, the annual discount rate assumed is 10%, which is the assumed current social opportunity cost of capital in Tanzania. Table 29: Investment cost in the central production zone Key intervention for investment Cost (TZS million) Proportion Animal feeding 35,974 23% Animal health 29,718 19% Animal breeding and genetics 54,743 35% Research 3,128 2% Extension services 4,692 3% Marketing and value addition 26,590 17% 156,409 100% Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 33Tanzania livestock master plan Coastal and lake zone Similar to the central zone, Table 30 shows the investment in coastal and lake zone with a total of over TZS 142 billion. Table 30: Investment cost in coastal and lake production zone Key intervention for investment Cost (TZS million) Proportion Animal feeding 31,932 22% Animal health 26,127 18% Animal breeding and genetics 49,350 34% Research 2,903 2% Extension services 4,354 3% Marketing and value addition 29,029 20% Total 145,147 100% Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Highlands zone There is very minimal investment for red meat in the highlands production zone. Major intervention for the highlands is on dairy development, which indirectly benefits the red meat production. However, the investment on animal feed that focuses on rangelands development is included in the red meat intervention as shown in Table 31. Table 31: Investment cost in the highlands production zone Key intervention for investment Cost (TZS million) Proportion Animal feeding 10,985 27% Animal health 8,950 22% Animal breeding and genetics 17,087 42% Research 1,221 3% Extension services 1,627 4% Marketing and value addition 814 2% Total 40,683 100% Impacts Return on investment (ROI) The internal rate of return on investment in red meat is negative in the first five years, but positive or higher returns above the 10% discount are attainable within 15 years. Table 32: Returns on investment (ROI) Production zone Central Highlands Coastal and lake Small-scale 16.9% 89.5% -26.6% Medium-scale -6.8% 540.8% -31.1% Ranch - 102.5% 36.9% Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 34 Tanzania livestock master plan Production impacts Table 33: Red meat production for baseline year (2016) and 2021 with intervention Products Total red meat in 2016/17 (tonnes) —baseline Total red meat in 2020/22 (tonnes) — with intervention % change in production Meat in central zone Cattle 171,807 228,296 33 Sheep 6,242 9,146 47 Goats 25,096 37,849 51 Total 203,145 275,291 36 Meat in coastal and lake zone Cattle 157,301 204,206 30 Sheep 11,059 14,467 31 Goats 26,373 46,305 76 Total 194,733 264,979 36 Meat in highlands zone Cattle 66,609 98,773 48 Sheep 3,149 4,362 39 Goats 13,424 19,527 45 Total 83,182 122,662 47 Grand total 481,061 662,931 38 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 34: Total red meat by species (cattle, sheep and goats) Products Total red meat in 2015 (tonnes)—baseline Total red meat in 2020 (tonnes)—with intervention % change in production Total red meat Cattle 395,716 531,275 34 Sheep 20,450 27,975 37 Goats 64,894 103,681 60 Total 481,061 662,931 38 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The total red meat from grows from 481,061 tonnes in 2016/17 to 662,931 tonnes in 2020/21, showing an increase of 38%. Livestock’s contribution to GDP Table 35: Livestock GDP contribution for baseline year (2016/17) and 2021/22 with red meat interventions Products Total livestock GDP 2016/17— baseline (TZS million) Total livestock GDP 2021/22— with intervention (TZS million) % change in national livestock GDP contribution Meat in central zone Cattle 600,130 779,505 30 Sheep 17,702 25,069 42 Goats 81,851 114,929 40 Meat in coastal and lake zone Cattle 558,562 624,701 12 Sheep 40,602 52,523 29 Goats 83,479 134,674 61 Meat in highlands zone Cattle 232,949 305,601 31 Sheep 12,183 15,463 27 Goats 59,473 79,025 33 Total 1,686,930 2,131,490 26 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 35Tanzania livestock master plan The GDP contribution of red meat coming from the production zones shows an overall increase of 26% comparing the base year with the 2021/22 projection. This amounts to TZS 1.6 trillion in 2016/17, and 2.1 trillion in 2021/22. Table 36 Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart Activities 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/2011 Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Parasite control and treatment Adult stock immunization Young stock immunization Animal disease surveillance Strategic feed supplementation to the dams Introduction of flock/herd recording scheme Fodder production initiatives to get land Rangeland or grazing land rehabilitation Extension work to support improved feeding of cattle, sheep, and goats Complementary interventions and success requirements The following government action is required: • Provide producers with knowledge, skill and enable them access to sufficient production factors (including land, water and finance). • Improve the policy environment. • Ensure adequate forage is made available to producers. • Ensure sufficient vaccine production to meet farmers’ demand. • Ensure adequate feed supplements are available to farmers. Specialized cattle feedlots and culled dairy cattle Targets Table 37: Number of cattle units in the feedlot system Units 2016/17 2021/22 % change Fattening 78,111 561,242 619 Culled dairy cattle 260,293 685,191 163 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 38: Contribution of the cattle feedlot system to the national meat production Amount of meat (tonnes) 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Fattening 7,433 11,454 17,648 27,194 41,902 64,565 769 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 39: Contribution of the dairy production system to national meat production Amount of meat (tonnes) 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Small-scale dairy units 3,408 4,180 5,127 6,289 7,714 9,461 178 Medium-scale dairy units 1,968 2,423 2,983 3,672 4,521 5,567 183 Total 5,376 6,603 8,110 9,961 12,235 15,028 180 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 36 Tanzania livestock master plan Table 40: Challenges and strategies for developing specialized cattle feedlots and dairy cattle systems Challenges Strategies to address challenges Feed Limited access to land for production of forage seed and forage Inability to meet feed demand by commercial feedlots Poor access to and inadequate quality concentrate feed Ineffective or absent feed quality control standards and enforcement mechanisms Making land available for investors in forage production Promoting and enforcing land contracts to produce forage for commercial feedlots Promoting the establishment of flour mills and thus making more concentrates available Strengthening feed quality control authority to expand its operations Promoting the establishment of agro-industries for increased availability of by-products that could be used as feed supplements Animal health Poor animal health extension services Inefficient animal health services Inadequate supplies of drugs Poor-quality control of drugs and supplies Poor animal disease surveillance Lack of livestock traceability and identification system Inadequate quality control in abattoirs Strengthening the animal health regulatory capacity under the coordination of the livestock ministry Marketing and processing Absence of quality-based pricing Lack of holding area and feedlot space Lack of knowledge and skill on meat-cutting and grading Poor links to export abattoirs Building the capacity of meat technology training staff at the Tanzania Meat Board Increasing training of meat processors Promoting forward contracting of feedlots and abattoirs Investing in export infrastructure for animal holding and quarantine, as well as programs to ensure food safety and animal health through disease surveillance, monitoring of abattoirs, and an animal identification and traceability system etc. Policy A lack of meat quality standards and enforcement of controls, grading, and pricing policies; Poor implementation of policy on breeding A need to develop land policies, or strengthen the existing ones that are related to feed production and land acquisition for feedlot investment Inadequate feed quality monitoring and control Need for further incentives to establish feedlots (including land access in appropriate locations conducive to feed production, linkages with export market, and infrastructure such as road access, power and water supply Lack of policy incentives to promote domestic production of oil seed to increase availability of oil cakes and limit importation of cooking oil Introducing a trade policy to reduce the importation of cooking oil and grain flour Developing and implementing animal welfare policies Interventions to achieve targets Increasing the number of cattle fattened The specialized production feedlot system will be improved through better feed and health services, increasing the number of cattle feedlot units, and the number of cattle being fattened. Producers (fatteners) will be given training on cattle fattening procedures, including cattle selection and feeding and on improving the efficiency of the beef value chain, which targets quality beef marketing. Table 41: Projected number of cattle fattened 2016 2021 % change Number of animals fattened/unit/year 90 112 24 Number of fattening units 2,367 5,000 53 Total cattle fattened 213,030 512,000 58 37Tanzania livestock master plan Increasing the availability of feed ingredients required by cattle feedlot Table 42: Estimated amount of additional concentrate feed needed for additional cattle going to beef feedlot by the year 2020 Number of animals Additional number of animals in year 2021 relative to 2016 Additional concentrate/ year (thousand tonnes) 2016 2021 Fattening units 234,333 1,795,974 1,561,641 The additional concentrate needed per animal will be 0.01 tonnes per year. Investments Table 43: Investment in abattoir establishment Type of processing Cost per unit (TZS million) Number of new abattoirs Capacity Investment cost/plant (TZS million) Area/population covered Big abattoir (with rendering system) 2,200 2 2,000 sheep and goats and 200 cattle per day 4,400 Towns and cities with over 200,000 people Modern abattoir (with all required facilities) 2,600 1 3,000 sheep and goats and 700 cattle per day 2,600 Towns and cities with over 200,000 people Impacts Return on investment The return on investment (ROI) under cattle feedlots is big and attractive. The benefit/cost ratio is 19%. Production impacts Table 44: Change in meat production from cattle feedlots (2016/17–2021/22) with interventions Products (beef in tonnes) Total production 2016/17 baseline Total production 2021/22-with commercial feedlots intervention % change in production Cattle 7,433 64,565 769 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Total red meat production increases by 769% in 2021/22, amounting to 7,433 tonnes (in the base year) and 64,565 tonnes (in 2021/22). Table 45: Changes in livestock GDP with interventions in specialized cattle feedlots Product (meat) Total livestock GDP 2016/17 (TZS million)–baseline Total livestock GDP 2021/22 (TZS million)–with specialized feedlots interventions % change in national livestock GDP Cattle 3,535 48,394 1,269 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 46: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart Activities 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/2020 Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Implementing the roadmap for the rationalization of public/private veterinary services Parasite treatment Adult stock vaccinations 38 Tanzania livestock master plan Activities 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/2020 Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Jul–Dec Jan–June Disease surveillance Establishing quarantine facilities Establishing identification and traceability tools Quality control in abattoirs Identifying potential locations for feedlot establishment Creating new feedlots Ensuring MLF support for establishment of feedlots in strategic locations Establishing abattoirs Complementary interventions and success requirements • Industry strategy developed by the government in collaboration with the Tanzanian industry association. • Access enabled to sufficient production factors (including land, water and finance). • Conducive policy and investment environment required to attract and facilitate private sector investment in feedlots and abattoir operations. • Strategic use of the feed sources coming from new and existing sugar plantations and other types of large-scale crop production investments in Tanzania. Figure 6: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for beef. 39Tanzania livestock master plan Figure 7: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for sheep meat. Figure 8: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for goat meat. 40 Tanzania livestock master plan Figure 9: LMP targets for production, consumption, and production-consumption balance for red meat. Conclusions Given the indicated production increases, there is significant contribution by the traditional, ranches, and feedlot production systems towards improving food security, meeting the red meat consumption and nutrition, and contributing towards economic growth. However, this can only be realized if: • The government and private sector make investments in time and fund the activities adequately. • Meeting the livestock feed needs becomes a priority, and is followed by efforts towards increasing pasture and fodder production and increasing the availability of roughages such as crop residues and agro-industrial by-products. The bulk of additional concentrate feed needed, particularly in feedlots, is expected to come from investment by the private sector in agro-processing industries. • An industry strategy is put in place to enable access to sufficient production factors including land, water and finance. • The policy environment is improved to attract and enable sustainable growth of feedlots. • Linkages are established for a viable stocker and feeder program where the improved young male stocks from the traditional sector are channelled to feedlot operations, thus reducing the grazing pressure on the grazing land in the traditional system. • The establishment of new feedlot operations takes into account the spatial distribution of sugarcane factories, agro industrial processing plants, and milling industries. Production of red meat grows from 493,869 tonnes in 2016/17 to 742,524 tonnes in 2021/22, an increase of 50%. Consumption of red meat grows faster, from 508,094 tonnes of red meat in 2016/17 to 867,302 tonnes by 2021/22, an increase of 71% Even if all the above conditions are met, the red meat production and consumption balance for the period 2016/17– 2021/22 remains at a deficit amounting to 124,778 tonnes by 2021/22. 41Tanzania livestock master plan Chicken development roadmap 2017/18–2021/22 42 Tanzania livestock master plan Chicken development roadmap (2017/18–2021/22) Vision By 2022, the chicken industry is to a large extent efficient and commercially run, both in commercial and household operations, using improved and highly productive breeds to ensure household food security and higher incomes, and significantly contributes to achieving national all-meat food security, and higher national income while being resilient to climate change and conserving the environment. Overall target The overall target is to raise annual chicken meat production almost eightfold from about 60,800 to 465,600 tonnes and egg production from about 3.0 to 4.2 billion by year 2021/22 through improved traditional family chicken (ITFC), tropical improved chicken (TIC) and expanded specialized/commercial chicken (SCC)—with layers and broilers— subsystems. Improving traditional family chicken and promoting and expanding tropical improved chicken subsystems Targets Table 47: Number of hens and chicken meat and eggs production in improved traditional family chicken and tropical improved chicken subsystems (2016/17–2021/22) Chicken subsystem Unit (tonnes) 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Improved traditional family chicken (ITFC) In millions In millions In millions In millions In millions In millions 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.7 37 Traditional improved chicken (TIC) 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.28 0.76 2.01 NA* Total 4.22 4.44 4.81 5.28 6.16 7.71 NA* ITFC eggs 101.2 119.2 140.3 165.3 194.6 229.2 127 TIC eggs 0.79 2.2 6.1 16.8 46.5 129.1 NA* Total eggs 101.99 121.4 146.4 182.1 241.1 358.3 350 ITFC meat In thousands 31.8 34.5 37.5 40.8 44.3 48.2 52 TIC meat In thousands 0.01 0.03 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 NA* Total meat In thousands 31.81 34.5 37.6 41 44.9 49.9 57 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 43Tanzania livestock master plan • The number of hens in the ITFC grows from 4.2 million in the base year to 5.7 million in 2021/22, a 37% increase. • The number of chicken in the TIC grows from 0.02 million to 2.01 million. • Chicken meat production from ITFC increases from 31.8 thousand tonnes in the year 2016/17 to 48.2 thousand tonnes in the year 2021/22, a 52% increase. • Chicken meat production from the TIC increases from 0.01 thousand tonnes in the year 2016/17 to 1.7 thousand tonnes. • Total meat from the family system increases from 31.81 thousand tonnes to 49.9 thousand tonnes, a 57% increase. • Egg production from ITFC increases from 101.2 million in the year 2016/17 to 229.2 million in the year 2021/22, a 127% increase. • Egg production from TIC increases from 0.79 million in the year 2016/17 to 129.1 million in the year 2021/22. • Total egg production from the family system increases from 109.99 million in the year 2016/17 to 358.3 million in the year 2021/22, a 350% increase. *Tropical improved chicken (TIC) is a newly introduced chicken system with a small number of birds in the base year hence comparing the near non-existent number of TICs in the base year with those in the fifth-year number does not make sense. Key assumptions for the family chicken system • The average number of hens/flock in improved traditional family chicken grow from two to four. • The average number of chicken/flock in tropical improved chicken remains 25. • The number of eggs laid per hen/year increases from 50 to 90. • The mortality in chicken before marketing will be reduced from 50–10% • The average live weight of chickens (growers) sold will increase from 1.1–1.4kg. • The number of eggs and chicken consumed on-farm/year increases from 10–20, a 100% increase. • The costs of veterinary drugs increase from TZS 50/chicken to TZS 100/chicken, a 100% increase. Table 48: Key challenges and strategies related to traditional family chicken system Challenges Strategies to address the challenges Feeds Limited access to land to produce maize and soybeans for formulation of chicken feed Low nutritive value of feed ingredients used in feed formulation such as maize, maize bran, grain sorghum, rice bran and fish meal in terms of energy, protein, mineral and amino acid profile Low nutritive value and low quality of commercial chicken feeds in terms energy, protein, mineral and amino acid profile and high crude fibre Presence of physical and chemical contaminants such as charcoal, sand and dust in chicken feed ingredients and feeds Low institutional capacity to monitor quality of chicken feed produced and processed Low incentive for the private sector to invest in chicken feed processing plants Enforce Grazing Land and Animal Feed Resources Act 2010 and related regulations Build capacity for animal feed inspectors in various levels Prepare guidelines for inspection of processed chicken feeds Create awareness through sensitization on need/ requirements for quality chicken feeds Build capacity for good processing practices among animal feed processors Regulate the export of oil crops and import of cooking oils Strengthen mechanisms to control feed quality Give tax breaks and other incentives to encourage private sector in chicken feed processing industries 44 Tanzania livestock master plan Challenges Strategies to address the challenges Animal health High prevalence and impact of diseases particularly Newcastle, salmonellosis, Marek’s disease among small-scale chicken producers Poor handling and poor-quality drugs and vaccines associated with inadequate human resource for supervising and monitoring drugs use and unreliable cold chain supply of chicken vaccines Poor housing and sanitation for chickens Strengthen enforcement of Animal Disease Act 2003 and its regulations Formulate biosafety guidelines for disease control and other relevant guidelines Enforce stricter disease controls on the importation of commercial replacement stock Produce Newcastle Disease vaccine with high efficacy and institute mandatory mass vaccination against the disease Create awareness among small producers on best practices in chicken housing and sanitation Marketing and processing Chicken farmers’ marketing organizations are limited in geographical scope with most operating in Dar-es-salaam and other urban areas Weak chicken farmer’s groups and platforms Existing farmers marketing organizations are poorly structured and there is lack of a related apex national association. Lack of slaughter facilities for chicken Lack of chicken meat processing facilities Weak biosafety facilities and hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) Weak consumers preference for exotic chicken meat and eggs Promote establishment of Tanzania chicken traders’ associations Construct chicken slaughtering and processing facilities and promote chicken meat and eggs marketing. Institutionalize mandatory biosafety and HACCP procedures Intensify the promotion and extension work to change the attitudes of consumers towards consuming eggs and meat from hybrid and exotic breeds Policy Most of the hatcheries and breeder chicken farms are not registered, do not have registered veterinarians and operate within residential areas without standard operating procedures There are many complaints from farmers on high mortality of chicks from some hatcheries due to salmonellosis and emergence of Marek’s disease in pullets (layers). Weak policies related to land acquisition for chicken feed production. Promote registration of hatcheries and breeder farms Establish standard operating procedures and guidelines for operation of hatcheries and breeder farms Institutionalize biosafety measures and HACCP facilities for chicken meat, eggs and feeds Create favourable policies for land acquisition for chicken feed production Interventions to achieve targets The interventions to transform the family chicken system involve improving indigenous chicken productivity through improved breed selection, importation of high-yielding pure tropical scavenging brooding breeds and importation of semi-scavenging tropical breeds. These measures should go along with a reduction of reproductive wastage by introducing brooding and artificial incubation facilities such as hay box brooders and small-scale incubators; and health, feed and management interventions. Adoption and coverage of the intervention at 40% and 30%, respectively, will impact 12% of the total indigenous ITFC chicken over the five-year project period. Tropical improved chicken will grow from 15,000–2,000,000 chickens in five years, a huge development. The interventions in the improved traditional family chicken (indigenous and imported pure breeds) aims at upgrading the flock size from 2–8 hens. Eggs laid per year will increase from 50–90 and average weight of sold chicken will increase from 1.1–1.4 kg. Through the semi-scavenging tropical crossbreeds such as Kuroiler, holding per family will remain 25 chickens and it is expected to grow to at least 150 eggs per hen/year with 2.8 kg live weight for mature chicken. With the additional animal health services, chicken mortality before marketing will dropped down from 50–10%. The average number of eggs consumed on-farm/year will increase from 10–20 and chicken consumed from 5–10; both 100% increases. 45Tanzania livestock master plan Investments See the investment details in Table 53. Impacts Investment impacts The internal rate of return of the investment for improved traditional family chicken is 75% and for tropical improved chicken is 58% which justifies the value of the investment. This is at a discount rate of 10%. Production impacts • Total meat from the family system (ITFC and TIC) increases from 31.81 thousand tonnes to 49.9 thousand tonnes, a 57% increase. • Total egg production from the family system (ITFC and TIC) increases from 109.99 million eggs in the year 2016/17 to 358.3 million eggs in the year 2021/22, a 350% increase. GDP impacts The GDP contribution from the family chicken (ITFC and TIC) will increase from 21,310.6 to 54,355.1 million for eggs and 153,326.93 to 275,188.72 million for chicken meat respectively in the year 2021. Table 49: GDP contribution 2031 with current and with additional investment scenarios Products Chicken GDP 2016/17 (TZS millions) Chicken GDP 2021/22 (TZS millions) % change Improved traditional family chicken (ITFC) meat 153,843.49 276,115.6 79 Crossbreed family chicken meat 52.5 8,266.3 NA Total family chicken meat 153,895.9 284,381.9 85 ITFC eggs 22,678.3 57,843.5 155 Tropical improved chicken (TIC) eggs 122.5 20,570.0 NA Total family chicken eggs 22,800.8 78,413.5 244 Total family chicken meat and eggs 176,696.7 362,795.4 105 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania GDP contribution from the family chicken system increases from TZS 176,696.7 million in 2016/17 to TZS 362,795.4 million in 2021/22, a 105% increase as a result of additional interventions. Table 50: Intervention activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart Investment interventions Investment activity timing 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Establishing three chicken feed processing plants Improving the capacities of chicken feed quality control laboratories Land investment for feed (yellow-maize and soybean) production (sorghum to complement maize) Upgrading and expand Newcastle Disease, fowl pox and Gumboro vaccines production plant Establishing and monitor the chicken industry biosafety program Identifying suitable tropical pure reproducing/brooding chicken breeds Identifying suitable tropical semi-scavenging crossbred chicken breeds Testing breeds at the Tanzania Livestock Research Institute (TALIRI) and at farm-level and developing appropriate business models Strengthening/upgrading seven public chick multiplication centres 46 Tanzania livestock master plan Investment interventions Investment activity timing 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Establishing eight new public and private crossbred semi-scavenging and commercial day-old chick multiplication centres and 30 mothering units and distribution centres for four-weeks vaccinated chicks Establishing 10 public and private hatchery facilities and 100 private distribution centres for selected four-weeks vaccinated reproducing/ brooding chicken Reducing reproductive wastage of brooding hens using artificial incubation (10,000 incubators/year) Reducing reproductive wastage of brooding hens using chicken brooder box (10,000 hay brooding box/year) Supporting the Livestock Training Agency (LITA) and private institutions to implement farmers’ skills and training programs on commercial livestock production Promotion of exotic chicken meat and eggs consumption Establishment of chicken slaughterhouses and cold storage for eggs and chicken meat 1Building capacity of MLF, local government authorities, and livestock keepers on record keeping, data management and dissemination Specialized commercial chicken production Targets Table 51: Number of chicken and chicken meat production in specialized chicken subsystems Chicken subsystem Unit 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Specialized layers million 13.32 13.99 14.68 15.42 16.19 17.00 28 Specialized broilers million 3.29 5.64 9.64 16.49 28.20 48.23 1,362 Total specialized chicken million 15.61 19.63 24.32 31.91 44.39 65.23 318 Specialized layer Tonnes 9,988.3 10,591 11,231 11,909 12,629 13,391 34 Specialized broiler Tonnes 19,058.7 35,075 64,550 118,796 218,628 402,354 2,011 Total Tonnes 29,047 45,666 75,782 130,705 231,256 415,745 1,331 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania • The number of chickens in the specialized chicken layers subsystem grows from 13.3 million in 2016/17 to 17 million in 2021/22, a 28% increase. • The number of chickens in the specialized chicken broilers subsystem grows from 3.3 million in 2016/17 to 48.2 million in the year 2021/22, a 1,362% increase. • Chicken meat production from specialized chicken increases from 29,047 tonnes in 2016/17 to 415,745 tonnes in the year 2021/22, a 1,331% increase. Table 52: Egg production from specialized layers Chicken subsystem 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Change in % Specialized chicken egg (thousands) 2,864,947 3,035,292 3,215,766 3,406,971 3,609,544 3,824,162 33 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania • Egg production from specialized layers increases from 2.86 billion in 2016/17 to 3.82 billion in the year 2021/22, an increase of 33%. 47Tanzania livestock master plan Key challenges and strategies related to the specialized layers and broilers system The specialized layers and broilers systems are facing the challenges as those of the traditional family chicken system and need similar strategies transforming the system. Refer to Table 48 above for the details. Interventions to achieve targets The interventions for specialized chicken improvement involve increasing the scale of operations and volume of production from the specialized chicken farms i.e. specialized chicken layers and specialized chicken broilers. The major intervention proposed for the specialized chicken layers and specialized chicken broilers is increasing their number in the country and the number of specialized farm units. The average number of broilers per specialized farm/ year increases to 1,020 per cycle and the average number of layers stays the same at 1,300. Impacts Return on investments The internal rates of return of the investment in specialized broilers and specialized layers is 57% and 36%, respectively, which is way above the 10% discount rate. These returns justify the investment and imply the profitability of both specialized layers and broilers. As shown in Table 53, the total investment required during the first five years to develop the sector amounts to TZS 753 billion which is shared by the public and private sector. Table 53: Five-year chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) Investment interventions Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total Animal feeding Establishing three chicken feed processing plants 2,970 5,940 8,910 Private 100%) Improving the capacities of chicken feed quality control laboratories 1,320 1,320 2,640 Public* (100%) Land investment for feed (yellow maize and soybean) production (sorghum to complement maize) 36,300 36,300 46,200 60,500 62,700 242,000 Private (100%) Animal health Upgrading and expanding Newcastle Disease, fowl pox and Gumboro vaccines production plant 13,200 19,360 13,200 45,760 Public (100%) Establishing and monitoring the chicken industry biosafety program 2,200 3,300 1,320 1,320 1,210 9,240 Public (100%) Animal breeding and genetics Identifying suitable tropical pure reproducing/ brooding chicken breeds 3,960 2,200 6,160 Public (100%) Identifying suitable tropical semi scavenging crossbred chicken breeds 2,200 1,760 3,960 Public (100%) Testing breeds at the Tanzania Livestock Research Institute (TALIRI) and at farm-level and developing appropriate business models 2,200 3,520 5,720 Public (100%) Strengthening/upgrading seven public chick multiplication centres 1,100 2,200 2,420 5,720 Public (100%) Establishing eight new public and private crossbred semi-scavenging and commercial day old chick multiplication centres and 30 mothering units and distribution centres for four week-old vaccinated chicks 3,163 3,163 6,325 6,325 6,325 25,300 Public (20%), Private (80%) Establishing 10 public and private hatchery facilities and 100 private distribution centres for selected four week-old vaccinated reproducing/ brooding chicken 7,508 7,508 15,015 15,015 15,015 60,060 Public (20%), Private (80%) 48 Tanzania livestock master plan Investment interventions Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total Extension Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using artificial incubation (10,000 Incubators/ year) 22,000 26,400 33,000 35,200 37,400 154,000 Public (30%), Private (70%) Reducing reproductive wastage of brooding hens using chicken brooder box (10,000 hay brooding box/year) 8,800 9,900 11,000 12,100 13,200 55,000 Public (20%), Private (80%) Supporting the Livestock Training Agency (LITA) and private institutions to implement a farmers’ skills and training programs on commercial livestock production 3,696 3,696 3,696 3,696 3,696 18,480 Public (50%), Private (50%) Promoting exotic chicken meat and eggs consumption 220 440 1,100 1,320 1,760 4,840 Public (60%) Marketing and value chain Establishment of chicken slaughtering house, cold storage for eggs and chicken meat 6,325 6,600 12,925 Public (10%), Private (90%) Policy, planning and M&E Building capacity of the MLF, local government authorities, and livestock keepers on record keeping, data management and dissemination+ 1,210 1,320 1,430 1,540 1,786 7,286 Public (80%), Private (20%) Total investment 121,644 134,404 162,206 163,031 172,187 753,361 Public (26%), Private (74%) *Represents government and NGO funds. NGO funds assumed to feed into the achievement of the national government/public goals +This investment serves across all commodities Production impacts • Chicken meat production from specialized chicken increases from 29,047 tonnes in 2016/17 to 415,745 tonnes in the year 2021/22, a 1,331% increase. • Egg production from specialized layers increases from 2.86 billion in 2016/17 to 3.82 billion in the year 2021/22, an increase of 33%. GDP impacts The GDP contribution of the specialized commercial chicken system increases from the current TZS 55 billion to TZS 303 billion in five years. Eggs from the specialized system contributed TZS 61 billion during the same 5-year investment period. Table 54: GDP contribution from commercial specialized chicken system (baseline GDP compared with 2021/22 from additional investment) GDP contributions 2016/17 (TZS millions) 2021/22 (TZS millions) % change Chicken meat GDP 55,148 303,567 450 Eggs GDP 24,123 61,110 153 Total 79,121 364,67 361 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The total GDP contribution of the specialized chicken system increases from TZS 79 billion to TZS 365 billion by the fifth investment year, which is a 360% increase. 49Tanzania livestock master plan Total production Chicken meat The total chicken meat production from the family and commercial specialized systems increases by 665% over five years. Table 55: Total chicken meat and eggs production with additional investment Products Unit Chicken meat 2016/17 (tonnes) Chicken meat 2021/22 (tonnes) Total chicken meat from the Family system Tonnes 31,773 49,855 Total chicken meat from Commercial specialized system Tonnes 29,047 415,745 Total chicken meat production Tonnes 60,820 465,600 Total eggs family system Thousands 101,956 358,305 Total eggs from specialized system Thousands 2,864,947 3,824,162 Total eggs production Thousands 2,966,903 4,182,457 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Eggs The total eggs production from the family and commercial specialized systems increased by 41% over five years. Total GDP Table 56: Family and commercial specialized chicken production systems GDP contribution with additional investment Products GDP 2016/17 (TZS millions) GDP 2021/22 (TZS millions) % change Family chicken meat contribution 153,896 284,382 85% Specialized chicken meat contribution 55,148 303,567 450% Total meat contribution 209,044 587,949 181 Family chicken eggs contribution 22,800 78,415 244% Specialized chicken eggs contribution 24,123 61,110 153% Total eggs contribution 46,923 139,525 197 Total meat and eggs GDP contribution 255,967 727,474 184 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Overall the GDP contribution of the total chicken meat and eggs production increased from the current TZS 256 billion to TZS 723 billion in five years, an increase of 184%. Change in annual incremental income Table 57: Annual incremental income as a result of the intervention Chicken subsystem 2016/17 2021/22 Annual incremental income per place % change Family chicken 41,345 54,557 13,212 32 Improved family chicken 19,496 20,746 1,250 6 Specialized layer 3,720 5,342 1,622 44 Specialized broilers 2,954 4,541 1,587 54 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 50 Tanzania livestock master plan Production and consumption The figure below shows that under a ‘business as usual’ or ‘without additional investment’ scenario, there is and there will be a substantial shortage of chicken meat production to meet the current as well as the future domestic consumption demand. However, with the proposed additional investment, the shortage will be removed and there will be surplus beginning from year 2020. Figure 10: Projected chicken meat consumption and production with and without additional investment 2017–2022 (in thousand tonnes). Tanzania produces enough eggs to meet its current domestic consumption demand and also have surplus. The chicken investment is mainly to raise a large number of broilers and improved family chicken to produce enough to offset the chicken meat and consumption gaps. Furthermore, it is expected that the increase in chicken meat will also contribute to close the all meat production and consumption gap. Table 58: Activity timeline and sequencing: Gantt chart Investment interventions Investment activity timing 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Animal feeding Establishing three chicken feed processing plants Improving the capacities of chicken feed quality control laboratories Land investment for feed production (yellow-maize and soybean) Animal health Upgrading and expanding Newcastle Disease, fowl pox and Gumboro vaccines production plant Establishing and monitoring the chicken industry biosafety program Animal breeding and genetics Identifying suitable tropical pure reproducing/brooding chicken breeds Identifying suitable tropical semi scavenging crossbred chicken breeds Testing breeds at TALIRI and at farm level and developing appropriate business models Strengthening/upgrading seven public chick multiplication centres 51Tanzania livestock master plan Investment interventions Investment activity timing 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Establishing eight new public and private crossbred semi-scavenging and commercial DOC multiplication centres and 30 mothering units and distribution centres for 4 weeks vaccinated chicks Establishing 10 public and private hatchery facilities and 100 private distribution centres for selected four week-old vaccinated reproducing/brooding chicken Extension Reducing reproductive wastage of brooding hens using artificial incubation (10,000 Incubators/year) Reducing reproductive wastage of brooding hens using chicken brooder box (10,000 hay brooding box/year) Supporting the Livestock Training Agency (LITA) and private institutions to implement a farmers’ skills and training programs on commercial livestock production Promoting of exotic chicken meat and eggs consumption Marketing and value chain Establishment of chicken slaughtering house, cold storage for eggs and chicken meat Policy, planning and monitoring and evaluation Building capacity of MLF, LGAs, and livestock keepers on record keeping, data management and dissemination* *This investment serves across all commodities Complimentary intervention and success requirements for specialized chicken The sustainability of the specialized chicken system depends on the effectiveness of the day-old chicks’ production and distribution system. A well-functioning private day-old chicks’ industry will be required for their efficient production and distribution to the specialized chicken farms. Government encouragement of chicken agribusiness investors and a reduction of bureaucratic obstacles will be required. Government should give priority in land allocation to specialized chicken farms and chicken feeds production enterprises. • The increase in production of eggs and chicken meat that exceeds domestic demand opens up opportunities for export and processing. Large investments in processing plants will be needed to produce value-added products for industrial uses (e.g. egg powder) or to meet foreign consumer demand for eggs and egg powder. The government should encourage private investors in chicken meat and eggs processing through tax breaks and low-interest loans. • Availability of chicken feed is a critical factor in the success of specialized chicken operations. There is a need to set up mechanisms for low-cost feed production and formulation at all production levels. • Specialized chicken enterprises should make efforts to link-up with chicken meat and egg processing enterprises to ensure regular access to market outlets, and with maize producers and cooking oil plants for regular supply of feed. • Public-private partnerships should be used to manufacture and distribute quality vaccines to keep the exotic chickens healthy. • Other essential components that need to be carried out by farmer groups and cooperatives include: • Setting up out-growers (mother units) schemes for pullet production and distribution • Establishment of mini-hatcheries • Establishment of feed processing plants and slaughter facilities. 52 Tanzania livestock master plan Conclusions The chicken industry can contribute significantly to improving food and nutrition security, household incomes, and national economic growth in Tanzania. This roadmap presented the challenges that need to be addressed in the sector, the proposed policy and investment interventions required and the indicative required investment funds to develop the sector. The financial viabilities of various interventions and the impacts of interventions on chicken productivity, production and on national economy mainly in terms of GDP are also presented. It is observed that the policy and investment interventions in the improved family chicken and specialized chicken systems will substantially increase chicken meat production which will contributes toward closing the gap in production-consumption for all meats. However, this goal will be realized only if: • the feed problem is resolved; • an effective extension system is put in place; • private investors in the sector (specialized chicken, processing plants, feed producers) are given adequate incentives in terms of tax breaks, subsidized land-leasing rates and priority access to acquire land; and • protective trade policies to encourage domestic private investors in the chicken business are implemented. 53Tanzania livestock master plan Pig/pork value chain development roadmap 2017/18–2021/22 54 Tanzania livestock master plan Pig/pork value chain development roadmap (2017/18–2021/22) Vision By 2025 the Tanzania pig industry becomes an efficiently functioning sector with market-oriented farming, processing and dynamic marketing, operating in more sustainable and climate-smart ways, supplying consumers with high quality and safe pig meat/pork, and contributing to household food and nutritional security, income growth, poverty alleviation and to national economic growth. Overall target The overall target is to raise pig meat production from the current 22,000 tonnes (2016/17) to 37,000 tonnes by 2021/22 through improved family and expanded commercial specialized pig production systems. Modernizing and transforming the traditional free-ranging family pig production system Targets Table 59: Number of sow and tonnes of meat in traditional (extensive) family and improved family pig subsystems Pig subsystem Unit 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change Traditional family pig system (TFPS) Number 207,083 223,028 240,202 258,697 278,617 300,070 45 Improved family pig system (IFPS) Number 77,778 83,767 90,217 97,163 104,645 112,703 45 Total family sows Number 284,861 306,795 330,419 355,860 383,262 412,773 45 TFPS meat Thousands of tonnes 12.77 13.71 14.72 15.81 16.98 18.23 43 IFPS meat Thousands of tonnes 5.96 6.38 6.84 7.33 7.85 8.42 41 Total pigs in IFP Thousand of tonnes 18.73 20.10 21.57 23.14 24.83 26.65 42 Source: LSIPT Livestock Sector Analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania • The number of sows in traditional (extensive) family (TFPS) systems increases from 207,083 to 300,070 and the number of pigs in the improved semi-intensive family system increases from 77,778 to 112,703. In both cases the change in number over five years is 45%. • Pig meat production from the TFPS subsystem increases from 12.8 thousand tonnes to 18. 2 thousand tonnes, a 55Tanzania livestock master plan 43% increase. • Pig meat from improved (semi-intensive) family pig subsystem (IFPS) increases from 6 tonnes to 8.4 tonnes, a 41% change over five years. Targeted productivity changes • The number of sows in the TFPS household sub-system increases from two to four. • Mortality of young pigs will decrease from an average of 20% to 18% and 12% to 10% in TFPS and IFPS, respectively. • The age at first calving decreases from an average of 300–270 days in TFPS. • The proportion of industrial feed included in the pig ration increases from average of 0% to 4% and from 20% to 40% among TFPS and IFPS, respectively. • Age at weaning decreases from an average of 60–55 and 45–35 days among TFPS and IFPS, respectively. • Age of piglets for marketing decreases from 120–112 days and from 60–40 days among TFPS and IFPS, respectively. Table 60: Key challenges and strategies related to the family pig subsystem Challenges Strategies to address the challenges Genetics Limited number of improved pig breeds Lack of specialized commercial pig breeding farms Establishing public and private sector specialized commercial pig breeding and multiplication farms The LMP provides opportunities for designing a pig industry development strategy/program in Tanzania Low productivity of family-kept pigs partly due to low genetic potential and inbreeding leading to poor quality stock supplied to farmers Inadequate supply of well-bred pig stocks from pig multiplication and breeding farms Importing new lines of improved high-yielding pig breeds to avoid inbreeding and increase productivity Extension and proper management and husbandry practices to lower the probability of inbreeding Supporting the Tanzania Livestock Research Institute pig breeding and research activities Animal health A weak animal health delivery system Inadequate health extension staffs Strengthening surveillance, early detection/diagnosis Strengthening national and local government authorities’ capacity to recruit additional staff to respond to outbreaks and provide specialized pig extension services The MLF will prepare the national pig biosecurity policy guidelines for farmers (small and commercial), feed and meat processors Widespread pig health and reproductive problems and major devastating diseases such as African swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, erysipelas, transmissible gastroenteritis and brucellosis that cause heavy mortality Supporting immunization measures (for foot-and-mouth disease, brucellosis) Improving pig farm management practices to benefit producers. Enforcing the Animal Pounds Act, and Animal Welfare Act, 2008 Extensive pig farmers education and developing regulations to stop free roaming Feeds challenges Unreliable supply of commercial feeds Establishment of private small-scale feed mills and public-private partnerships multilevel feed processing plants Below standard quality of commercial feeds Strengthen surveillance system and the regulatory capacity of the central veterinary laboratories (CVL) with MLF involved in monitoring feed quality and safety High prices of commercial feeds and premixes such as amino acids, minerals and vitamins that are necessary to adhere to standard pig nutritional diets Organize commercial pig producers for massive importation of essential feed ingredients e.g. amino acids, vitamins and trace minerals Create suitable conditions for land allocation, and land lease to investors under the provisions of the current land laws, with major tax incentives on land use fees and lease time Severe feed shortages to supply large pig commercial/specialized pig farms Develop and implement business models in the production, transportation, processing and distribution of pig feeds Expand private sector-led massive cereals and legumes production to supply feed processing plants. Undertake research on alternative pig feeds in terms of nutritive values, and feed conversion impacts on weight gain and meat quality that are suitable in each zone 56 Tanzania livestock master plan Challenges Strategies to address the challenges Unreliable supply of commercial feeds Massive production of cereals (yellow maize, maize, sorghum etc.) and legumes (soybeans, other oil seed cakes) to feed commercially farmed pigs Owners of commercial feeds processing plants, large-scale cereal and other alternative feed raw materials are supported to start and run businesses Marketing and processing challenges Weak pig marketing arrangements Higher pork price due to marketing inefficiency, high cost of transportation from producers to urban markets Lack of pig slaughter facilities/abattoirs, absence of cooling systems (e.g. refrigerators), absence of standard weights and measures Lack of access to formal credit sources for investment in pig production Developing the pig value chain to improve pig marketing, trading capacity and smallholder pig production by constructing pig markets, slaughter facilities/ abattoirs and fresh pork marketing outlets Applying good-manufacturing practices (GMP) in production process, implement HACCP in animal feed manufacturing, pig slaughtering facilities and processing Strengthening swine producer associations (SPAs) to provide credit facilities, offer learning opportunities to farmers’ and actors’ in the value chain through skills training and joint implementation of biosecurity measures to control devastating diseases such as African swine fever Promote SPAs to innovate and actively participate in the value chain mainstreaming to maximize installed feed and meat processing capacities, own and manage cooperative-owned small-scale feed mills, enforce formal use of weights in meat sales, and infrastructural developments in order to increase the overall volume and values in the market Lack of quality grading system for pig meat Establish pig meat quality grading standards and regulatory systems to enforce it Build capacity of animal and livestock production staff on pig ante- and post mortem inspection skills/techniques Policy challenges Lack of official pig marketing and pig meat transportation policies Ensure policy guidelines/regulations to reorganize pig marketing/trading system is developed Ensure linkages to slaughter facilities/abattoirs, preservation facilities and processing plants The development, support and implementation of animal welfare strategic plan undertaken Lack of policy for pig holding and slaughtering facilities Create enabling policy environments for the establishment of rural small-scale and urban large-scale slaughter facilities Develop policy guidelines, standard operating procedures (SOPs) and awareness campaigns on slaughter facilities’ hygiene and food safety Lack of policy for land allocation for pig production Lack of policy that gives incentives to private sector to invest in pig production Ensure policy related to land acquisition or long-term land leasing Develop and seek government approvals on appropriate policy incentives to encourage foreign direct investments, organizations and individuals to invest in commercial pig production, processing and marketing, building domestic pig auction markets, and pig products and kiosks consumption outlets Ensure sufficient infrastructure and access to feed sources for the production of feed raw materials (cereals, legumes, roots/tubers etc.) to supply large pig farms Introduce protective trade policies to encourage domestic private investment in pig production Interventions to achieve targets in family pig subsystems The proposed transformation of the traditional family pig production system involves genetic, health and feeding interventions alongside marketing and policy interventions. The genetic interventions involve importation of tropically adapted and more productive pig sows and boars for breeding and crossbreeding and the establishment of pig breeding and multiplication farms. The animal health interventions involve strengthening disease control for priority pig diseases such as African swine fever, transmissible gastro enteritis, erysipelas, worms, and mange; strengthening biosecurity and allied facilities; surveillance through local government authorities and zonal veterinary labs; and the building of staff capacity on national mandatory pig or commodity-based identification and traceability to achieve animal health and safe trade objectives. 57Tanzania livestock master plan The feed interventions involve strengthening the capacity of private small-scale pig feed mills/processors to compound and distribute pig feeds to rural smallholder farmers and strengthening capacity of family pig keeping households to compound and supplement quality pig feed/home rations with locally available and industrial feed materials. Impacts Return on investment The return on the pig investment from the family pig system is 86% and 17% for small- and medium-sized traditional pig systems, respectively. Both have demonstrated an internal rate of return greater than the 10% discount rate used in the analysis of the investment. Production impacts Pig meat production from the traditional family pig subsystem (TFPS) increases from 12.8 thousand tonnes to 18. 2 thousand tonnes and pig meat from the improved semi-intensive IFPS subsystem increases from 6 tonnes to 8.4 tonnes. Total pig meat production from the family system increases from 18.7 tonnes to 26.7 tonnes, a 42% increase in five years. GDP impacts Because of the additional intervention, the GDP contribution of the traditional family pig system increases from TZS 27. 5 billion in 2016/17 to TZS 39 billion. Similarly, the GDP that comes from the improved family pig system increases from TZS 11 billion to TZS 15 billion during the same period. Due to the additional investment, the total GDP contribution of the family pig production subsystem increases from TZS 38.6 billion to TZS 54.4 billion, a 41% growth. Table 61: Family pig GDP contribution with additional investment Products Pig meat GDP 2016/17 (TZS millions) Pig meat GDP 2021/22 (TZS millions) % change TFSP meat contribution 27,457.50 39,151.30 43 IFPS meat contribution 11,118.70 15,282.60 37 Total family pig meat system contribution 38,576.20 54,433.90 41 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Expanding the commercial specialized pig production subsystem Targets Table 62: Population growth of sows and pig meat production in the commercial/specialized pig production (CSP) subsystem Pig subsystem 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 % change CSP (numbers) 57,580 70,746 86,922 106,796 131,215 161,218 180% CSP meat (tonnes) 3,295 4,156 5,241 6,610 8,336 10,514 219% Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania The number of sows in the commercial specialized pig subsystem increases by 180% from 57,580 to 161,218 sows. With each sow having 6 followers, the total number of pigs in this subsystem increases from 403,360 to 1,128,526. Pig meat production from the specialized pig system increases from 3.3 thousand tonnes to 10.5 thousand tonnes over five years which constitutes a 219% growth. This growth is as a result of the following changes: 58 Tanzania livestock master plan • Delay in weaning: successful service from 15–11 days • Proportion of industrial feed included in the ration rising from 70–79% • Age of piglets marketed reducing from 40–36 months • Daily weight gain of piglets rising from 0.7–0.8 kg Key challenges and strategies related to the commercial specialized pig system Genetics challenges and strategies to address the challenges The genetic challenges and strategies for addressing them are similar to those in the family pig subsystem in Table 60. Animal health challenges and strategies Apart from the low level of biosafety measures in the commercial specialized pig subsystem, which can be addressed through implementation of a strict biosafety measures at farm level and HACCP at feed plants, the animal health problems and strategies to them challenge are similar to those in the family pig subsystem (refer to Table 60). Feeds challenges and strategies These are the same as those in the family pig subsystem in Table 60. However, to deal with the serious feed shortage in the specialized system, suitable conditions for land allocation, and leasing of land to investors under the provisions of the current land laws, with major tax incentives on land use fees and lease time should be created. Marketing and processing challenges and strategies These are the same as those of the family pig subsystem in Table 60. Policy challenges and strategies These are the same as those of the family pig subsystem. Intervention to achieve targets in commercial specialized family pig subsystems The proposed expansion and upscaling of the commercial specialized pig production system involves genetic, health and feed interventions alongside marketing and policy interventions. The genetic improvement measures involve importation of 4,000 tropically adapted pig sows and 200 boars for breeding and crossbreeding and establishment of 10 private and 10 public pig breeding and multiplication farms. The animal health interventions involve strengthening disease control for priority pig diseases such as African swine fever, transmissible gastro enteritis, erysipelas, worms, and mange, strengthening biosafety facilities, and building staff capacity on national mandatory identification and traceability to achieve animal health and safe trade objectives. The feed interventions involve strengthening capacity of private small-, medium- and large-scale pig feed mills/ processors and making land available for pig feed (maize and other cereal) production. See Table 63 for the detailed investment interventions. Investment requirements for transforming the pig sector The total 15-year investment requirement to transform the pig industry amounts to TZS 195.375 billion or USD 88.8 million over a 15-year period. Thirty-seven per cent (37%) of the investment which is TZS 73.202 billion or USD 59Tanzania livestock master plan 33.145 million will be required in the first five years, followed by 35% in the second and the remaining 28% in the final five years. Most of the investment is in the first year due to capital items and requirements for setting a leap in production and value addition activities. In the first five years, overall the major portion of the investment is in animal health and product safety (33%) and marketing (29%). Out of the total investment, 22% is covered by the public and 78% by the private sector. The pig sector is basically of private interest and the public sector will play a major role in setting up regulations for the sector, the overall development and facilitation of activities in the sector and providing incentives to attract and encourage the private investors. Table 63: Five-year investment cost to transform the family pig system and expand the commercial specialized system (2016/17 to 2021/22) Type of investment Total (TZS million) Budget source 1 Animal feeding Strengthen capacity of 150 private small-scale pig feed mills/processors to compound and distribute feeds to farmers 1,450 Public–35% Private–65% Strengthen capacity of public sector to regulate, and 30 private feed and meat processors to prepare own hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) 154 Public–100% 2 Animal health Strengthen disease surveillance at central and zonal veterinary laboratories (procure capital lab equipment) 1,200 Public–45% Private–55% Train staff on novel lab technologies and methods to test blood/organ samples for early diagnosis of key pig diseases especially African Swine fever 180 Public–30% Private–70% Strengthen veterinary laboratories capacity: procure in-line and offline feed quality analyzer equipment to check hazards, nutrient level, and residues 140 Public–100% Procure equipment to check/validate feed intoxication and biological contamination 72 Public–100% Build laboratory staff capacity on residues validation testing procedures/methodology 460 Public–100% Build capacity of meat inspectors in 100 local government areas (LGAs) for safe meat marketing 1,100 Public–40% Private–60% Equip pig abattoir and personal protective equipment (PPEs) for pig meat inspectors 1,056 Public–35% Private–65% Strengthen biosafety facilities and plans of 300 pig farms to control pig diseases 5,280 Public–35% Public-private partnership–65% Build capacity of 100 LGA for cost-effective pig disease surveillance and control strategies 8,250 Public–15% Public-private partnership–85% Strengthen biosafety infrastructures in 300 pig farms in 100 LGAs and national biosafety services 660 Public–45% Private–55% Facilitate pig identification, registration and traceability 2,200 Public–5% Public-private partnership–95% Build staff capacity on national mandatory identification and traceability to achieve animal health and safe trade objectives 550 Public–35% Private–65% 3 Animal breeding Import 4,000 tropically adapted and productive pig sow breeds for breeding 4,400 Public–50% Private–50% Import 230 tropically adapted and more productive pig boar breeds for breeding 660 Public–45% Private–55% Facilitate to establish 10 private pig breeding and multiplication farms 232 Public–15% Public-private partnership–85% 60 Tanzania livestock master plan Type of investment Total (TZS million) Budget source Facilitate to establish 10 public pig breeding and multiplication farms 408 Public–100% 4 Research activities Identify risk factors for spread of African swine fever, including the role of wild pigs argasidae-tick interactions in high risk areas 60 Public–100% Field test the efficacy of novel African swine fever virus diagnostic tests (lateral flow device (LFD) for early detection of virus antigen and ELISA to detect IgM) for the virus 30 Public–100% Modelling cost-effective measures for prevention and control of African swine fever 22 Public–100% Improve control and preparedness of pig farmers, Vets and public agencies for African swine fever 7,920 Public–100% Diagnostic study on swine producer associations managerial, financial and organizational needs and planning to achieve operational efficiency 33 Public–100% 5 Extension services Establish 300 swine producers’ associations (SPAs) in potential areas 2,280 Public–20% Private–80% Build capacity for 300 SPAs to revitalize and innovate to address production, trade and development limitations 50 Public–10% Private–90% Build SPAs capacity to manage pig meat value chain (processing, marketing) 100 Public–25% Private–75% Enhance leadership capacity to manage pig producer saccos, production and marketing 230 Public–30% Private–70% Build hands-on capacity to manage pig farm enterprise costs, manure processing and pig industry sustainability 275 Public–30% Private–70% 6 Commercial production, marketing and value addition Expand and upgrade the capacity of 50 large-scale specialized investors’ pig farms 2,200 Public–5% Private–95% Establish 50 new commercial specialized pig farms for commercial pig production 4,400 Public–5% Private–95% Improve capacity of government staff to backstop 30 meat processors and 30 feed processors to implement their own HACCP 1,100 Public–40% Private–60% Construct pig marketing centres with slaughter facilities in 100 pilot LGAs 8,800 Public–10% Private–90% Construct mechanized pig slaughter facilities, and processing plant with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to domestic and exports markets 5,280 Public–5% Private–95% 7 Monitoring and evaluation Institutionalize pig database and capacity for program and monitoring 9,600 Public Bi-annual evaluation of the transformational development in the pig industry 720 Public Support to program coordination and asset management 1,375 Public Total 73,202 Public–22% Private–78% Impacts Return on investment The return on the pig investment from the commercial specialized system is 22% and it is big enough to justify the proposed investment. The internal rate of return which is 22% ensures profitability. Production impacts Pig meat production from the commercial specialized system increases from 3.3 thousand tonnes to 10.5 thousand tonnes over a 5-year period that constitutes a 219% growth. 61Tanzania livestock master plan GDP impacts The GDP contribution of the commercial specialized system increases from the current TZS 5.3 billion to TZS 26 billion in five years. With the additional investments, there is a fourfold increase in the GDP contribution of the specialized system. Total pig meat production The total pig meat production from the family and commercial specialized systems increases by 69% over the 5-year period (2017–2022) likely attributed to good animal productivity and increasing number of intensive smallholders, and medium- to large-scale farmers. Table 64: Total pig meat production with additional investment Products Pig meat 2016/17 (in tonnes) Pig meat 2021/22 (in tonnes) % change Total pig meat from the family system 18,730 26,650 42 Total pig meat from commercial specialized system 3,295 10,541 219 Total Pig meat production 22,025.00 37,191.00 69 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Total GDP contribution Overall the GDP contribution of pig meat production increases from the current TZS 44 billion to 80 billion in five years, an increase of 83% from the base year. Table 65: Family and commercial specialized pig subsystem GDP contribution with additional investment Products Pig meat GDP 2016/17 (TZS millions) Pig meat GDP 2021/22 (TZS millions) % change Family pig meat subsystem contribution 38,576.20 54,433.90 41 Commercial specialized subsystem pig meat contribution 5,397.6 26,042.1 382 Total meat contribution 43,973.80 80,476.00 83 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Income impacts With the additional investment and increase in productivity, the net income per sow increases by 3.1%, 10.2% and 57.1% in the traditional family pig, improved family pig and commercial specialized pig subsystems, respectively. The commercial specialized system sees the most significant incremental income benefit per animal followed by the improved pig family system. Table 66: Incremental income per sow Pig subsystem Net income per sow Net income per sow Incremental income per sow % change Traditional family pig subsystem 803,714 829,113 25,399 3.1 Improved family pig subsystem 1,029,362 1,134,622 105,260 10.2 Commercial specialized subsystem 1,654,757 2,599,367 944,610 57.1 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania 62 Tanzania livestock master plan Production-consumption balance impact The figure below shows that under the ‘business as usual’ or ‘without additional investment’ scenario, there is and there will be a substantial shortage of pig meat production to meet the current as well as the future domestic consumption demand. Even with the proposed additional investment the deficit will not be removed during the first five-year investment period, but it will become much narrower compared with the ‘without additional investment’ scenario. Figure 11: Projected pig meat consumption and production with and without additional investment (in thousand tonnes), 2017–2022 Source: LSIPT livestock sector analysis (2016), MLF Tanzania Table 67: Major activities timing and sequence: Gantt chart No. Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1 Animal feeding Strengthen capacity of 150 private small-scale pig feed mills/processors to compound and distribute feeds to farmers Strengthen capacity of public sector to regulate, and 30 private feed and meat processors to prepare own HACCP 2 Animal health - - - - Strengthen disease surveillance at central and zonal veterinary laboratories (procure capital lab equipment) Train staff on novel laboratory technologies and methods to test blood/organ samples for early diagnosis of key pig diseases especially African swine fever Strengthen veterinary laboratories capacity: procure in-line and offline feed quality analyser equipment to check hazards, nutrient level, and residues. Procure equipment to check/validate feed intoxication and biological contamination - - Build laboratory staff capacity on residues validation testing procedures/methodology Build capacity of meat inspectors in 100 LGAs for safe meat marketing - 63Tanzania livestock master plan No. Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Equip pig abattoirs and avail personal protective equipment (PPE) for pig meat inspectors Strengthen biosafety facilities and plans of 300 pig farms to control pig diseases Build capacity of 100 LGAs for cost-effective pig disease surveillance and control strategies Strengthen biosafety infrastructures in 300 pig farms in 100 LGAs and national biosafety services Facilitate pig identification, registration and traceability Build staff capacity on national mandatory identification and traceability to achieve animal health and safe trade objectives 3 Animal breeding and genetics Import 4,000 tropically adapted and productive pig sow breeds for breeding - - Import 230 tropically adapted and productive pig boar breeds for breeding - - Facilitate to establish 10 private pig breeding and multiplication farms Facilitate to establish 10 public pig breeding and multiplication farms 4 Research activities Develop capacity to control African swine fever and transform the pig industry in the country Identify risk factors for spread of African swine fever, including the role of wild pigs argasidae tick interactions in high risk areas - Field test the efficacy of novel African swine fever virus diagnostic tests (lateral flow device (LFD) for early detection of virus antigen and ELISA to detect IgM) for the virus - - Modelling cost-effective measures for prevention and control of African swine fever - - - Improve control and preparedness of pig farmers, Vets and public agencies for African swine fever Diagnostic study on swine producer associations managerial, financial and organizational needs and planning to achieve operational efficiency - - 5 Extension services Build capacity of 300 swine producer associations (SPAs) Establish 300 SPAs in potential areas Build capacity for 300 SPAs to revitalize and innovate to address production, trade and development limitations Build SPAs capacity to manage pig meat value chain (processing, marketing) Leadership capacity to manage pig producer saccos, production and marketing Build hands-on capacity to manage pig farm enterprise costs, manure processing and pig industry sustainability 6 Marketing and value additions Expand and upgrade the capacity of 50 large-scale specialized investors’ pig farms - - Establish 50 new commercial specialized pig farms for commercial pig production - - Improve capacity of government staff to backstop 30 meat processors and 30 feed processors to implement their own HACCP Construct pig marketing centres with slaughter facilities in 100 pilot LGAs - Construct mechanized pig slaughter facilities, and processing plant with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to domestic and exports markets 64 Tanzania livestock master plan No. Type of investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 Monitoring and evaluation Institutionalize pig database and capacity for program coordination and monitoring Bi-annual evaluation of transformational development of the pig industry - - Conclusions Amid increasing demand for pig meat, pig producers require proper knowledge, skills and business investment plans to run their pig enterprises profitably. It is observed that under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, often without additional investment, there is and there will be a substantial shortage of pig meat production to supply the current as well as the future domestic consumption demands. Even with the proposed additional investment, the deficit will not be removed during the initial years of the first five-year investment phase, demand and supply gap for pig meat will get much more narrowed with the ‘additional investment’ scenario. The transformation of the commercial intensive pig industry will be driven by; • Adoption of supplementary feeding in the traditional family pig subsystem and adequate production and supply of quality commercial feeds. • Assured herd health and a drive towards higher fertility and greater pig productivity through intensive smallholder, medium- and large-scale investments; and continuing improvements in herd fertility for the breeding herds. • A greater focus on indoor pig farming through progressive reduction of the numbers of free-roaming pigs and improvement of traditional units/holdings. • Strategic development of industrial pig farming/concentrations through invitation and support for foreign direct investments in pig farming as a special target for those in large commercial pig production farms (e.g. commercial specialized farming system). • Supporting private sector investment in animal health and other pig farming technical and business development services. • Continued mainstreaming of smallholder pig production activities with commercial pig farms and meat processing plants, massive cereal production, feed processing, breeding activities, marketing and pig meat value addition (slaughter and processing). • Strengthening swine associations for producers, traders, processors by training and equipping them with knowledge and skills, and giving them access to credit through and collective marketing. 65Tanzania livestock master plan Livestock sectoral analysis key findings on cross-cutting issues Introduction The productivity enhancing technologies and policy interventions with the greatest potential for contributing to achieving Tanzania’s national agricultural objectives include feed, animal health, and animal genetics development. The constraints and opportunities related to these interventions were analysed using the livestock sector investment and policy toolkit (LSIPT). Feed Crop and livestock production are the dominant economic subsectors providing livelihoods, incomes and employment to more than 80% of Tanzania’s population. The livestock sector analysis showed feed is the most critical resource constraint to growth and modernization in the livestock sector. Though endowed with natural resources, a large resource base for the country’s millions of livestock, the utilization of grazing lands for sustainable livestock production is hampered by seasonal variations in the quality and quantity of forage etc. While the country also produces substantial amounts of cereals and root crops, whose residues are valuable feeds for livestock, these crops are produced primarily for human consumption and some are in short supply. The livestock feed deficit is aggravated by the effects of climate change on feed quantity and quality. Extended dry seasons, frequent droughts, erratic rainfall manifested by shifts in the onset and cessation of rainfall, and increased temperatures have drastically reduced the availability of both roughages and concentrate feeds. Pasture and water shortages have also led to overgrazing and resource conflicts between livestock keepers and other land users. The LSIPT was employed to measure the potential supply of forage, fodder and other feed resources and future requirements for cattle, sheep, goats, poultry and pigs in the three production zones and the specialized systems. Results indicated a clear shortage in feed and forage supply in the country, with available resources making up only 26% of required feed on average (with deficits in all types of rainfall years). Unless significant action is taken, projected shortages are set to worsen substantially over the next 15 years with available resources making up only 15% of the feed required. The central zone is expected to be the most severely affected since the systems there rely most on grazing, leading to increased mortality rates and poorer animal nutritional health. Interventions in this zone should focus on improving pasture productivity in the grazing lands and fodder conservation, and reducing the ruminant livestock population. In other systems and zones, the focus needs to be on intensified on-farm forage production, as well as commercial-scale feed production through irrigation where possible. The intensification of feeding programs, where feasible, should also be pursued in tandem with breeding programs to enhance the genetic potential of livestock. 66 Tanzania livestock master plan Animal health More than 85% of Tanzanians live in rural areas, out of which about 37% keep livestock. The livestock population is estimated at 107 million animals, of which an estimated 88% are kept in smallholder traditional systems. Animal health services—through disease control and prevention—remain one of the main drivers of livestock production and productivity, along with feed and genetics. In 2015 alone, the Tanzanian government recorded 329 animal disease outbreaks involving 32 animal disease conditions and 24,231 clinical cases, causing 5,864 deaths. The control and prevention of animal diseases is a recurring and costly burden to individual livestock keepers, commercial herd owners and the local and national governments. Transboundary animal diseases and zoonosis are particularly important constraints to livestock production in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas and are by and large the most important constraint to herd health and trade in animals and their products. The main diseases constraining livestock production in Tanzania are Rift Valley fever, foot-and-mouth disease, peste des petits ruminants (PPR), African swine fever, Marek’s disease, Newcastle disease, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), brucellosis and East Coast fever. Based on expert opinion and data on animal diseases, the toolkit was used to assess qualitative and quantitative socio economic impacts of diseases on household assets, markets/value chains and intensification of production, develop a priority list of animal diseases, and characterize the status of veterinary infrastructure in the country. This work sought to determine the optimal allocation of financial and human resources for surveillance, prevention, control and elimination of selected infectious diseases. The species targeted were food-producing animals: mainly cattle (beef, dairy), small ruminants (sheep and goats), chicken and pigs. The identified priority diseases1 hampering: • household assets were CBPP for cattle; Rift valley fever for small ruminants, African swine fever for pigs; and Newcastle disease for poultry; • markets and value chains were foot-and-mouth disease for cattle; brucellosis for small ruminants; African swine fever for pigs; and salmonellosis for poultry; and • livestock intensification were foot-and-mouth disease for cattle; PPR for small ruminants; African swine fever for pigs; and salmonellosis for poultry. Inadequate resources including funds, skilled personnel and logistics have also weakened the ability of national veterinary services to contribute to reducing the impact of reported transboundary and zoonotic diseases and pests. Detecting, controlling and preventing these diseases requires a highly-coordinated public surveillance and response system at all levels in all areas of the country. The department of veterinary services needs to strengthen the country’s animal disease surveillance and reporting system including through empowering livestock communities to detect and report disease incidents to facilitate prompt responses to outbreaks. Animal genetics The absence of effective livestock breeding and selection programs in Tanzania has hindered the supply of improved breeds to farming communities. Better coordination of the development and protection of animal genetic resources (AnGR) in Tanzania should involve the establishment of reliable and sustainable germplasm delivery systems and the involvement of the private sector in animal genetic improvement. Employing the LSIPT, an inventory and characterization of AnGR in Tanzania was undertaken. Management, conservation and maintenance policies and practices were evaluated for the three production zones in the country and the findings were discussed with key experts and main stakeholders from the private and public sectors. Crossbreeding local cattle should focus on the interbreeding of breed-types, taking advantage of additive gene action. It is recommended that for dairy, suitable exotic breeds include Friesian, and for dual-purpose (milk and meat), the 1. The priority disease affecting each species are listed here. The other diseases can be found in the Tanzania livestock master plan. 67Tanzania livestock master plan best breed is Simmentals. For small ruminants, selection should focus on improving growth rates, crossbreeding indigenous stock with the Boer, Saanen, Dorper and Malya. For poultry breeding, there is a need to develop a national recording program to help identify local breeds and strains for commercial production. Indigenous chickens need to be characterized and selected, and desirable traits for improvement and conservation established. Breeds developed elsewhere also need to be tested. Inbreeding of pigs needs to be controlled and new or improved breeds introduced. The importation and multiplication of breeds with proven herd performance and track records should be undertaken by the private sector in line with MLF policy and oversight. This oversight will require the establishment and enforcement of a legal framework, including the development of an animal breeding policy and the implementation of the animal breeding bill currently before parliament. Livestock selection for genetic improvement needs to focus on: • Ensuring effective breeding, selection and conservation programs are in place, including open nucleus breeding schemes and the renovation of public livestock farms and artificial insemination centres. • The establishment of data recording systems for on-station and on-farm breed evaluation programs for both locally-adapted and exotic breeds and their crosses. • The provision of training and support to strengthen animal breeding infrastructure, such as artificial insemination and minus-one-element-technique laboratories. Priority and complementary institutional and policy recommendations • The review of existing policies, institutions, laws and regulations highlights a lack of enforcement capacity and the need to modify out-of-date policies are priorities. Land allocation and tenure regulations particularly need to be revised to encourage private sector investment in feed production to alleviate severe shortages. Key policy priorities in related areas include: • Offering incentives for the private sector involvement in veterinary service provision in rural areas, including cost sharing for the prevention and control of diseases of economic importance. • Establishing a reporting system for the collection of veterinary drugs/vaccines performance at all levels. • Strengthening enforcement of the Animal Disease Act 2003 for poultry and the Grazing Land and Animal Feed Resources Act 2010, building the capacity of animal feed and meat inspectors, and formulating and enforcing poultry feed inspection guidelines and biosecurity and other relevant disease control guidelines. • Taking measures to promote investment in processing facilities for hides and skins, and ensuring enforcement of relevant trade regulations. • Strengthening market price and related information for live animals and products (i.e. hides and skins). • Introducing policies and enforcing laws on rangeland improvement: designating grazing areas in rangelands owned by livestock farmers; encouraging environmentally friendly tsetse control; mandating dipping and vaccinations; and incentivizing the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation practices. • Ensuring the implementation of the draft animal breeding act is accompanied by the provision of sufficient human resources and infrastructure and the establishment of livestock breeders’ associations. • Enforcing the Grazing Land and Animal Feed Resources Act 2010, and promoting the commercialization of maize and soybean production for livestock feeds, and contract farming for feed raw materials, such as soybean. • Reducing the high costs associated with livestock research by increasing investment in facilities, infrastructure and human resources, mandating more inclusive associations and platforms of experts to promote collaboration among researchers and with other stakeholders, including the private sector. • Increasing the quantity and quality of extension staff and associated infrastructure and facilities, and clearly delineating roles and responsibilities between ministry and local government authorities. 68 Tanzania livestock master plan • Strengthening the national livestock identification, registration and traceability system through the addition and enactment of a legislative amendment enabling the private sector supply of identification devices. • Reducing social conflict between livestock farmers and other land users, and land degradation from overuse, by strengthening livestock extension support services, legislating the demarcation of land for grazing, and the formation of pastoral and agro-pastoral associations. • Building the capacity of livestock ministry staff to conduct detailed economic and statistical analysis, develop implementation roadmaps, formulate policies and evaluate the outcomes. 69Tanzania livestock master plan Tanzania livestock master plan conclusions The ex-ante impacts of the livestock master plan roadmaps demonstrate that investing in the development of the livestock sector during the ASDP II phase could reduce poverty and improve the food security of rural people, as well as make livestock an increasing contributor to national income growth (GDP), and also to exports and foreign exchange earnings. For the specific value chains and interventions, the main conclusions and implications of implementing the livestock master plan roadmaps for the ASDP II, as well as conditions critical to achieving success, are as follows: Crossbred dairy cow development The projected increase in national cow milk production as a result of the proposed interventions—including artificial insemination and hormone synchronization, combined with improved feed and health services, value addition and complementary policy changes—during the ASDP II period (2017–2022) is 77% or a surplus of 1,002 million litres over projected domestic consumption requirements. This production increase would make it possible to meet the milk production targets in the ASDP II phase, exceeding the growing domestic demand for milk by 35%. Due to increases in the number of crossbred dairy cows of 281% and milk production per cows by 26% (42%), the contribution of the dairy sector to GDP is expected to rise by 75%. The critical conditions needed for the success of the cow dairy roadmap are: • Promotion of investment in long shelf life milk products, such as UHT, milk powder and other value-added products like yogurt, ice cream and cheese etc. • Introduction of quality-based standards and pricing to encourage quality milk supply. • Strengthening of enforcement of milk and milk products quality standards and comprehensive grading and pricing policies. • Formalization of milk trade through the training and licensing of milk traders. • Upscaling of the ongoing school milk feeding programs to promote consumption. • Building of the capacity of the dairy technology training institute(s). • Introduction of protective trade policies including higher import tariffs or bans on imported milk products and/or subsidies for domestically-produced milk products. • Reduction in bureaucracy and promotion of investment in the dairy industry; • Development and implementation of an effective land acquisition policy for dairy investments (preferential treatment for accessing land for specialized dairy production, milk processing and feed production). • Provision of incentives for investors to establish dairy processing plants and commercial specialized dairy farms. 70 Tanzania livestock master plan Red meat development The proposed combined interventions for red meat production on traditional family farms and commercial ranches, as well as feedlot development, would result in a 52% increase in total red meat production. Production would grow to 742,500 tonnes between 2017 and 2022. This would not, however, meet expected consumption growth of 71% by year 2022 (to 867,302 tonnes), leaving a 17% deficit (124, 800 tonnes) in the 2017–2022 red meat production and consumption balance. Due to extremely limited access to land for grazing and feed production, and limited ability to enhance the genetic potential of local ruminant breeds in the medium-term mean, it is unlikely that the red meat production gap can be closed in the next five years. Even with a substantive increase in the supply of red meat from small ruminants—with goat meat and mutton currently accounting for 14% and 4% respectively—this is unlikely to significantly help close the projected meat consumption/demand gap as beef accounts for 82% of the red meat production in Tanzania. Given the rapidly growing population, and increasing incomes and demand for animal-source foods in Tanzania, such projected deficits would be expected to put upward pressure on red meat prices. Moreover, meeting the growing red meat export goals in the ASDP II period would also be extremely difficult. • To be successful, the red meat/milk interventions need to be supported by: • Development of the meat technology training staff, and the provision of training to meat processing staff. • Promotion of forward contracting by feedlots and abattoirs. • Investment in export infrastructure for animal holding and quarantine centres, as well as in programs for disease surveillance, monitoring of abattoirs, animal identification and traceability etc. • Strengthening of the animal health regulatory capacity at national and local levels under the coordination of the MLF • Development of strategic capacities spearheaded by staff working in the Agricultural Sector Development Program II • Building of a key infrastructure to support the marketing and processing of livestock and livestock products. • Development and implementation of standards on meat and feed quality control and enforcement and grading, and pricing policies. • Introduction of trade policy to reduce the importation of cooking oil and grain flour whose raw materials can be used to increase and improve livestock feeds • Development and implementation of policies protecting and enhancing animal welfare • Development of clearly defined guidelines on the right to access and use land and the implementation of appropriate land policies. • Refraining from uncritically gazetting grazing land, to make land currently held for conservation purposes accessible for pastoral production. Poultry development Successful poultry interventions would allow the subsector to move to improved family poultry with semi scavenging crossbreeds and for substantial increases in the scale of specialized layer and broiler operations. Such a transformation—depending on successful interventions in the areas of breed selection, health services (particularly in treating Newcastle disease), feed, extension, private investment and trade policies—would contribute considerably to improving food and nutrition security and household incomes, as well as the contribution of poultry to GDP by 182%, from TZS 256 billion to 723 billion, and to substantial contributing closing the production– consumption gap for meat. 71Tanzania livestock master plan Projected annual chicken meat and egg production in Tanzania would rise to 465,600 tonnes and 4.2 billion eggs, respectively. This would bring the production-consumption deficit for chicken meat from 130,000 to a surplus of 258,000 tonnes between 2017 and 2022. The combined interventions would result in increases of 666% and 40% respectively in chicken meat and egg production by 2022. Such accomplishments would enable Tanzania to meet the chicken meat and egg demand for its growing population, and produce a very significant surplus for domestic industrial use or export. Perhaps most importantly, the growth of the poultry subsector would enable Tanzania to close the total national meat production-consumption gap (see Figure 3). It would also contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from total meat consumption. Taking advantage of the benefits of the potential poultry revolution would thus require substantial investments in promotional activities to shift tastes and preferences away from beef and mutton, as well as from local chicken meat and eggs, towards exotic chicken meat and eggs. Moreover, if the surplus chicken meat could substitute for domestic red meat consumption, this would also enable meat exports (of beef, mutton and goat meat) to be increased to raise foreign exchange earnings, in line with the government’s meat export policy. Furthermore, the surplus eggs created could be also processed into egg powder and used domestically for new or additional industrial uses (e.g. in the baking industry), or exported as egg powder to raise foreign exchange earnings. The above benefits can only be realized with the: • Establishment of an efficiently functioning private day-old-chick’s industry and effective distribution system of the birds for the specialized poultry farms. • Facilitation by government of the establishment of investment in the poultry agribusiness sector through the reduction of bureaucratic obstacles. • The allocation of land for the establishment of poultry farms and production of feed. • Promotion of large-scale private investment in poultry processing plants to produce value added products for industrial uses or to meet consumer demand for processed egg and meat products—through the provision of favourable taxation levels and provision of local interest loans to investors. • Establishment of a mechanism to encourage low-cost production and formulation of poultry feed critical to the success of specialized poultry farms. • Facilitation of links between specialized chicken and egg producers with processors, ensuring regular access to market outlets, and both with maize producers and cooking oil plants, ensuring a regular supply of feed. • Use of public-private partnerships in the manufacture and distribution of quality vaccines needed to keep exotic chickens healthy, where the private sector will not invest. • Encouragement of farmer groups and cooperatives to establish outgrower schemes for pullet production and distribution, mini-hatcheries, and feed processing plants and slaughtering facilities. Pig development The proposed combined interventions for improved family and expanded commercial specialized pig production systems would result in a 69% increase in pig meat production. Production would grow from about 22,000 to 37,200 tonnes between 2017 and 2022. The development of a competently market-oriented farming, processing and a dynamic marketing sector, operating in more sustainable and climate-smart ways, supplying consumers with high quality and safe pig meat/pork would significantly contribute to increased household income, food and nutrition security, poverty alleviation, as well as increasing the contribution of pork to GDP by 83%, from TZS 44 billion to 80 billion between 2017 and 2022. This would bring the production-consumption deficit for pig meat from 8,000 tonnes to a 1,350-tonne surplus in the five-year period. 72 Tanzania livestock master plan Improving pig meat requires a focus on controlling African swine fever to increase pig productivity and meat production to help close the projected all-meat consumption gap projected in 15 years. In the ‘without additional investment’ scenario, by year 2032, a deficit of 16,000 tonnes of pig meat is estimated, thus resulting in a total all meat deficit of 2 million tonnes. However, industrializing pork production (in large commercial-scale operations) and processing for product transformation will lower domestic meat prices, while enabling an increase in exports and foreign exchange earnings. The above benefits can only be realized with: • An increase in the supplementary feeding of family pig herds and in the production and supply of quality commercial feeds. • An intensification of pig production through a combination of small-, medium- and large-scale investments in genetics, biosafety, health and feed designed to increase fertility and productivity rates. • A greater focus to indoor pig farming through progressive reduction of the numbers of free-roaming pigs and improvement of traditional units/holdings. • Strategic development of industrial pig farming concentrations through the attraction of, and support for, domestic and foreign direct investments in pig farming, targeting large commercial pig producers. • Promotion of private sector investment in animal health, and other pig farming technical and business development services. • Integration of smallholder pig production activities with specialized pig farms and meat processing plants, massive cereal production, feed processing, breeding activities, marketing and pig meat value addition services (e.g. slaughter and processing). • Strengthening of swine associations to make them vehicles for commercialization of the pig industry, ensuring they have the right knowledge and skills, and access to credit and collective marketing opportunities. Total investment in the livestock master plan The total investment costs required to carry out the LMP roadmap are TZS 1,393.9 billion. The proportion of investment from the public and private sectors is 36% (TZS 502.6 billion) and 64% (TZS 891.3 billion), respectively. Table 68: Total investment cost required to carry out the livestock master plan roadmap Investment interventions Total investment cost in billion TZS Total cost (USD millions)Public Private Total Cow dairy* 105.8 119.3 225.1 101 Red meat/milk and feedlot 184.8 157.4 342.2 153 Poultry 195.9 557.5 753.4 337 Pig/pork 16.1 57.1 73.2 33 Total 502.6 891.3 1,393.9 624 *Investments to improve pasture productivity and reduce young and adult stock mortality are included in the investment of red meat/milk and feedlot system. Finally, the results for all the targeted value chains show that investing in the livestock master plan could help transform family farms from traditional to improved market-oriented systems. This includes all the traditional family systems. The specialized commercial production systems for dairy, cattle feedlots, and poultry (broilers and layers) could also be improved through better genetics, feed and health services and by increasing the number of specialized commercial units and animals in them to increase their contributions to rural household income, national livestock production and GDP. Moreover, livestock development does not just have an impact on rural people. The anticipated transformation of the livestock sector also has the potential to impact positively on urban consumers through lower animal product prices. It is, therefore critical to the attainment of food and nutrition security at household, sectorial and national levels. 73Tanzania livestock master plan Annex 1: Five-year dairy production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) S/no Investment intervention Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total 1 Animal feeding i Pasture establishment and paddocking Land preparation, pasture establishment and paddocking in newly-established 150 medium farms (50 ha) 7,920 7,920 7,920 7,920 7,920 39,600 Private–100% ii Commercial animal feeds plants Construction of two plants (TZS 1,100 million per plant) 1,100 - 1,100 - 2,200 Private–100% iii Feeding technologies and land acquisition (production, processing and storage) for newly established 150 medium farms 176 176 176 176 176 880 Public–80% Private–20% iv Feed quality control (laboratories and capacity building) and improving the existing (first five years) 440 - - - 440 Public–100% v Strengthen the existing pasture/forage seed quality control laboratories 880 - - - - 880 Public–100% Subtotal 8,976 9,636 8,096 9,196 8,096 44,000 2 Animal health - - - - - i East Coastal fever vaccination program for 300,000 dairy cattle per year - - - - - Income mentioned in red meat improvement scenario ii Implement programs for eradication of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, foot-and mouth disease, Rift Valley fever (capacity for surveillance, diagnosis and vaccination campaign) - - - - iii Rehabilitate 100 veterinary centres - - - - - 3 Animal breeding and genetics investments i Strengthen existing national and establish a new semen production centre 2,200 - 11,000 - - 13,200 Public–100% ii Strengthen existing and acquire two liquid nitrogen plants 1,100 - 1,100 - 2,200 Public ii Training and capacity building for 6,650 artificial insemination technicians 554 554 554 554 554 2,772 Public–10% Private–90% iii Establishing bull centres and purchase 20 proven bulls 198 198 198 198 198 990 Private–50% Public–50% iv Purchase and distribution of crossbred heifers for under-resourced dairying beginners (2,000 every year) 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 22,000 Public–90% Private–10% v Strengthen existing LMUs and establish four crossbred heifer multiplication farms 2,750 - 2,750 2,750 2,750 11,000 Public-private partnership 50%/50% 74 Tanzania livestock master plan S/no Investment intervention Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total vii Sensitize farmers on the formation of breed societies 440 - - - - 440 Public–50% Private–50% Subtotal 10,542 6,252 18,902 9,002 7,902 52,602 4 Extension - - - - - - Income mentioned in red meat improvement scenario Strengthening extension services for dissemination of appropriate livestock technologies - - - - 5 Research Research on breed improvement, feeds and forage, animal health and value addition of livestock products and by-products 10,000 - 12,000 - 22,000 Public–100% Subtotal - - 22,000 - - 22,000 6 Marketing and value addition - - - - - i Construction of two processing plants: one UHT in coastal and lake zone and one milk powder in highlands zone 11,000 17,600 - - 28,600 Public-private partnership– 50%/50% ii Formation and strengthening of dairy cooperative and primary societies in high potential areas (training, sensitization, equipping and facilities) 220 220 220 220 220 1,100 Public–50% Private–50% iii Establish 150 milk collection/chilling centres (cold chain) 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 9,900 Public–50% Private–50% iv Strengthen Dairy Board to regulate milk quality in highlands, lake and coastal zones in four milk sheds (office and laboratory) 550 - - - - 550 Public–100% v Strengthen the capacity of milk quality and safety control laboratory at the Tanzania Veterinary Laboratory Agency (TVLA) 330 - - - - 330 Public–100% vi School-milk feeding programs to benefit 500,000 children 4,400 8,800 13,200 17,600 22,000 66,000 Public-private partnership– 50%/50% Subtotal 7,480 22,000 33,000 19,800 24,200 106,480 Grand total investment 26,998 47,888 59,998 49,998 40,198 225,082 Public–47% Private–53% 75Tanzania livestock master plan Annex 2: Five-year red meat production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) S/No Investment intervention Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total 1. Animal feeding Gazette grazing land, demarcation and enforcement of the Grazing Land and Animal Feeds Resources Act 2010. 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 11,000 Public–100% Rangeland (communal grazing land) improvement–Bush clearing and/or oversowing 20,000 10,338 10,000 5,000 4,000 49,338 Public–60% Private–40% Livestock-water development programs (charcoal dams/boreholes for village grazing land) 10,000 5,000 3,893 18,893 Public–90% Private–10% 2. Animal health Public good vaccination for East Coast fever, CBPP, foot-and-mouth disease, Rift Valley fever, PPR, CCPP and brucellosis diseases 2,552 2,552 2,552 2,552 2,552 12,760 Public–80% Private–20% Construction and rehabilitation of dip tanks 1,043 1,043 1,043 1,043 1,043 5,215 Public–60% Private–40% Improve the capacity of vaccine production centres, veterinary centres and diagnostic laboratories for vaccination, surveillance and diagnosis 22,000 11,000 11,000 44,000 Public–100% Promote private sector engagement in vaccine production 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 Public–25% Private–75% 3. Animal breeding and genetics Purchase of proven breeding bulls (Boran, Ankole and Fipa) 40,518 40,518 40,518 121,554 Public–10% Private–90% Purchase of proven breeding bucks of Malya (blended) goat 70 100 80 250 Public–30% Private–70% 4. Research Grazing land resource (feed/fodder/ water) assessment research 2,750 2,750 5,500 Public–80% Private–20% Research on breed improvement, feeds and forage, animal health and value addition of livestock products and by products; 1,000 1,000 200 2,200 Public–70% Private–30% 5. Extension services Strengthening the capacity of existing livestock training institutes Provide extension officers with the necessary equipment (toolkit) Establish and/or strengthen ward livestock resource centres 5,500 5,500 11,000 Public–90% Private–10% 76 Tanzania livestock master plan S/No Investment intervention Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total 6. Marketing and value addition Establishment and rehabilitation of secondary livestock markets 1,500 1,000 2,500 Public–100% To renovate and equip Kwala and Tarime and Murusagamba livestock quarantine station (for export processing) 10,000 10,000 20,000 40,000 Public–100% Renovation and/or constructions of modern abattoirs • two big abattoirs with a capacity to slaughter 2,000 sheep and goats and 200 cattle per day • one modern abattoir with a capacity to slaughter 3,000 sheep and goats and 700 cattle per day 3,500 3,500 7,000 Public–50% Private–20% Public-private partnerships–30% Renovation of existing and/or constructions of two new semi processing and finished leather products processing plants 2,400 2,000 4,400 Private–100% Strengthening the meat board to regulate, promote, monitor and coordinate stakeholder activities for improving the meat value chain (traders and producers’ associations) 200 130 330 Public–95% Private–5% Strengthen the capacity of meat quality and safety control laboratory in the Tanzania Veterinary Livestock Agency 550 550 1,100 Public–100% Enhancing livestock identification and traceability system–purchase of equipment (computer, networking and identification kits) 1,200 1,000 2,200 Public-private partnerships–100% Total 72,083 115,251 99,623 26,688 28,595 342,240 Public–54% Private–46% 77Tanzania livestock master plan Annex 3: Five-year chicken meat and egg production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) No. Investment interventions Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total 1 Animal feeding Establish three chicken feed processing plants 2,970 5,940 8,910 Private–100% Improve the capacities of chicken feed quality control laboratories 1,320 1,320 2,640 Public* –100% Land investment for feed (yellow-maize and soybean) production (sorghum to complement maize) 36,300 36,300 46,200 60,500 62,700 242,000 Private–100% 2 Animal health Upgrade and expand Newcastle disease, fowl pox, Gumboro vaccines production plant 13,200 19,360 13,200 45,760 Public–100% Establish and monitor the chicken industry biosafety program 2,200 3,300 1,320 1,320 1,210 9,240 Public–100% 3 Animal breeding and genetics Identify suitable tropical pure reproducing/brooding chicken breeds 3,960 2,200 6,160 Public–100% Identify suitable tropical semi scavenging crossbred chicken breeds 2,200 1,760 3,960 Public–100% Testing breeds at the Tanzania Livestock Research Institute and at farm level and developing appropriate business models 2,200 3,520 5,720 Public–100% Strengthen/upgrade seven public chick multiplication centres 1,100 2,200 2,420 5,720 Public–100% Establish eight new public and private crossbred semi-scavenging and commercial day-old-chick multiplication centres and 30 mothering units and distribution centres for month-old vaccinated chicks 3,163 3,163 6,325 6,325 6,325 25,300 Public–20% Private–80% Establish 10 public and private hatchery facilities and 100 private distribution centres for selected vaccinated month old chicks reproducing/brooding chicken 7,508 7,508 15,015 15,015 15,015 60,060 Public–20% Private–80% 4 Extension Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using artificial incubation (10,000 incubators/year) 22,000 26,400 33,000 35,200 37,400 154,000 Public–30% Private–70% 78 Tanzania livestock master plan No. Investment interventions Investment cost (TZS million) Budget source 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total Reduce reproductive wastage of brooding hens using chicken brooder box (10,000 hay brooding box/year) 8,800 9,900 11,000 12,100 13,200 55,000 Public–20% Private–80% Support the Livestock Training Agency and private institutions to implement farmers’ skills and training programs on commercial livestock production 3,696 3,696 3,696 3,696 3,696 18,480 Public–50% Private–50% Promotion of exotic chicken meat and eggs consumption 220 440 1,100 1,320 1,760 4,840 Public–60% Private–40% 5 Marketing and value chain Establishment of chicken abattoirs and cold storage for eggs and chicken meat 6,325 6,600 12,925 Public–10% Private–90% 6 Policy, planning and monitoring and evaluation Building capacity of MLF, local government authorities (LGAs), and livestock keepers on record keeping, data management and dissemination+ 1,210 1,320 1,430 1,540 1,786 7,286 Public–80% Private–20% Total investment 121,644 134,404 162,206 163,031 172,187 753,361 Public–26% Private–74% *Represents government and NGO funds. NGO funds assumed to feed to the achievement of the national government/public goals +This investment serves across all commodities 79Tanzania livestock master plan Annex 4: Five-year pig/pork production improvement investment costs (2017/18–2021/22) No. Type of investment Investment cost (TZS million) Total (TZS million) Budget source 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1 Animal feeding Strengthen capacity of 150 private small-scale pig feed mills/processors to compound and distribute feeds to farmers 290 290 290 290 290 1,450 Public–35% Private–65% Strengthen capacity of public sector to regulate, and assist 30 private feed and meat processors to prepare own hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) 54 52 - 48 154 Public–100% 2 Animal health Strengthen disease surveillance at the central veterinary laboratory and the zonal veterinary centres (procure capital laboratory equipment) 280 270 250 220 180 1,200 Public–45% Private–55% Train staff on novel lab technologies and methods to test blood/organ samples for early diagnosis of key pig diseases especially African swine fever 36 36 36 36 36 180 Public–30% Private–70% Strengthen veterinary laboratories capacity: procure in-line and offline feed quality analyser equipment to check hazards, nutrient level, and residues. 28 28 28 28 28 140 Public–100% Procure equipment to check/validate feed intoxication and biological contamination 42 30 - - - 72 Public–100% Build lab staff capacity on residues validation testing procedures/methodology 115 115 115 115 460 Public–100% Build capacity of meat inspectors in 100 local government authorities (LGAs) for safe meat marketing 380 - 370 - 350 1,100 Public–40% Private–60% Equip pig abattoirs and PPEs for pig meat inspectors 352 - 352 - 352 1,056 Public–35% Private–65% Strengthen biosafety facilities and plans of 300 pig farms to control pig diseases 960 1,200 1,200 1,080 840 5,280 Public–35% Public-private partnerships–65% Build capacity of 100 LGAs for cost-effective pig disease surveillance and control strategies 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 8,250 Public–15% Public-private partnerships–85% Strengthen biosafety infrastructures in 300 pig farms in 100 LGAs and national biosafety services 132 132 132 132 132 660 Public–45% Private–55% 80 Tanzania livestock master plan No. Type of investment Investment cost (TZS million) Total (TZS million) Budget source 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Facilitate pig identification, registration and traceability 560 480 440 400 320 2,200 Public–5% Public-private partnerships–95% Build staff capacity on national mandatory identification and traceability to achieve animal health and safe trade objectives 220 180 150 - - 550 Public–35% Private–65% 3 Animal breeding and genetics Import 4,000 tropically adapted productive pig sow breeds for breeding 2,420 1,980 - - 4,400 Public–50% Private–50% Import adaptable tropical productive 230 pig boar breeds for breeding 330 330 - - 660 Public–45% Private–55% Facilitate establishment of 10 private pig breeding and multiplication farms 58 58 58 58 - 232 Public–15% Public-private partnerships–85% Facilitate establishment of 10 public pig breeding and multiplication farms 102 102 102 102 - 408 Public–100% 4 Research activities Develop capacity to control African swine fever virus and transform the pig industry Identify risk factors for spread of African swine fever, including the role of wild pigs-argasidae tick interactions in high risk areas 30 30 - - - 60 Public–100% Field test the efficacy of novel African swine fever virus diagnostic tests (lateral flow device (LFD) for early detection of virus antigen and ELISA to detect IgM for the virus 30 - - - - 30 Public–100% Modelling cost-effective measures for prevention and control of African swine fever 22 - - - 22 Public–100% Improve control and preparedness of pig farmers, vets and public agencies for African swine fever 1,800 1,760 1,540 1,500 1,320 7,920 Public–100% Diagnostic study on swine producers’ associations (SPAs) managerial, financial and organizational needs and planning to achieve operational efficiency - 33 - - 33 Public–100% 5 Extension services Build capacity of 300 swine producer associations (SPAs) Establish 300 SPAs in potential areas 456 456 456 456 456 2,280 Public–20% Private–80% Build capacity for 300 SPAs to revitalize and innovate to address production, trade and development limitations 10 10 10 10 10 50 Public–10% Private–90% Build SPAs capacity to manage pig meat value chain (processing, marketing) 20 20 20 20 20 100 Public–25% Private–75% Leadership capacity to manage pig farmers’ savings and cooperative societies () production and marketing 54 37 48 37 54 230 Public–30% Private–70% Build hands-on-capacity to manage pig farm enterprise costs, manure processing and pig industry sustainability 55 55 55 55 55 275 Public–30% Private–70% 6 Commercial production, marketing and value addition Expand and upgrade the capacity of 50 large scale specialized investors’ pig farms 1,200 - 1,000 - - 2,200 Public–5% Private–95% Establish 50 new commercial specialized pig farms for commercial pig production 2,100 2,300 - - 4,400 Public–5% Private–95% Improve capacity of government staff to backstop 30 meat processors and 30 feed processors implement their own HACCP 380 - 370 - 350 1,100 Public–40% Private–60% 81Tanzania livestock master plan No. Type of investment Investment cost (TZS million) Total (TZS million) Budget source 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Construct pig marketing centres with slaughter facilities in 100 pilot LGAs - 3,200 2,880 2,720 8,800 Public–10% Private–90% Construct mechanized pig slaughters, processing plant, with cold-storage for marketing of chilled pig meat to domestic and exports markets - 2,112 2,112 1,056 5280 Public–5% Private–995% 7 Monitoring and evaluation Institutionalize pig database and capacity for program and monitoring 2,000 3,000 4,000 600 9,600 Bi-annual evaluation of the transformational development in the pig industry 150 150 160 130 130 720 Support to program coordination and asset management 400 400 450 400 1,650 Total investment 9,275 14,415 22,239 15,761 11,512 73,202 Public–22% Private–78% 82 Tanzania livestock master plan References FAO, 2014. FAO: World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 Nell, A. J., Schiere, H. and Bol, S. 2014. Quick scan dairy sector Tanzania. (Available from http://edepot.wur. nl/334382). TANZANIA LIVESTOCK MASTER PLAN ISBN:92–9146–540–2 The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) works to improve food security and reduce poverty in developing countries through research for better and more sustainable use of livestock. ILRI is a CGIAR research centre. It works through a network of regional and country offices and projects in East, South and Southeast Asia, Central, East, Southern and West Africa, and in Central America. ilri.org CGIAR is a global agricultural research partnership for a food-secure future. Its research is carried out by 15 research centres in collaboration with hundreds of partner organizations. cgiar.org Tanzania livestock master plan