Tonga’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution 2020

Article 4, paragraph 9, of the nationally determined contribution. Paris Agreement; (d) Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on: (i) How the economic and Not applicable. Tonga accounts for any social consequences of mitigation co-benefits from adaptation response measures have been actions and/or economic diversification as considered in developing the mitigation actions in accordance with the nationally determined assumptions and methodological contribution; 20 Annex (ii) Specific projects, measures approaches indicated in section 5 of this and activities to be document. implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries. 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: (a) Assumptions and For the energy sector, Tonga reported GHG methodological emissions and determined its GHG emission approaches used for targets following the 2006 accounting for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anthropogenic Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas greenhouse gas Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and emissions and removals applying default emission factors. corresponding to the Tonga strives to report a complete GHG Party’s nationally inventory by 2025, following the 2006 determined Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contributions Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (b) , consistent with Inventories, and the 2019 Refinement to the decision 1/CP.21, 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National paragraph 31, and Greenhouse Gas Inventories, using the tier 1 21 Annex accounting guidance approach and applying default emission adopted by the CMA; factors. (b) Assumptions and When accounting for the implementation of methodological approaches policies and measures or strategies in the used for accounting for the nationally determined contributions for the implementation of policies energy sector, Tonga will apply the 2006 and measures or strategies in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the nationally determined Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas contribution; Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. When reporting progress towards the targets set in the 2020 NDC, Tonga will strive to apply the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. (c) If applicable, information For the energy sector, Tonga reported GHG on how the Party will take into emissions following the 2006 account existing methods and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidance under the Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Convention to account for Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and anthropogenic emissions and applying default emission factors. removals, in accordance with Tonga strives to report a complete GHG

Article 4, paragraph 14, of the inventory by 2025, following the 2006 Paris Agreement, as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change appropriate; Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. (d) IPCC methodologies and For the energy sector, Tonga reported GHG metrics used for estimating emissions following the 2006 anthropogenic greenhouse Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gas emissions and removals; Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas 22 Annex Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. (e) Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: (i) Approach to addressing Not applicable as the current GHG inventory emissions and subsequent does not adequately capture GHG emissions removals from natural and removals from agriculture, forestry and disturbances on managed other land use. lands; Tonga strives to report anthropogenic (ii) Approach used to account emissions or removals from AFOLU, for emissions and removals following the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel from harvested wood on Climate Change Guidelines for National products; Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for (iii) Approach used to address National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, using the effects of age-class the tier 1 approach and applying default structure in forests; emission factors. (f) Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including: (i) How the reference Not applicable. For the energy sector, Tonga indicators, baseline(s) and/or reported GHG emissions following the 2006 reference level(s), including, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change where applicable, sector-, Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas category- or activity-specific Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and reference levels, are applying default emission factors. constructed, including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; (ii) For Parties with nationally Tonga’s non-GHG components largely aim at determined contributions that improving clarity and transparency, enabling contain non-greenhouse-gas Tonga to report anthropogenic emissions or components, information on removals from AFOLU and waste, following assumptions and the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on methodological approaches Climate Change Guidelines for National used in relation to those Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and the 2019 components, as applicable; Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, using 23 Annex the tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. There are not specific assumptions and methodological approaches underpinning these components. (iii) For climate forcers Not applicable. Tonga’s 2020 NDC does not included in nationally include any climate forcers that are not determined contributions not covered by the IPCC guidelines. covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; (iv) Further technical Not applicable. information, as necessary; (g) The intention to use Tonga intends to achieve the mitigation voluntary cooperation under objectives under its 2020 NDC exclusively

Article 6 of the Paris through domestic efforts and does not Agreement, if applicable. envision any internationally transferred mitigation outcomes. 6. How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances: (a) How the Party considers Tonga is a small island developing state. Its that its nationally determined GHG emissions are negligible on a global contribution is fair and scale. Due to its geography and economy, ambitious in the light of its Tonga is highly affected by the adverse national circumstances; impact of climate change. Accounting for (b) Fairness considerations, these circumstances, Tonga considers its including reflecting on equity; NDC as fair and ambitious. (c) How the Party has The targets set in Tonga’s 2020 NDC addressed Article 4, represent a progression beyond Tonga’s paragraph 3, of the Paris 2015 NDC in that: Agreement; The 2020 NDC, for the first time, sets a clear and transparent target for reducing GHG emissions, and the 2020 NDC, for the first time, sets clear and transparent non-emission targets for the AFOLU and waste sectors. (d) How the Party has The non-GHG emissions targets set in the addressed Article 4, 2020 NDC aim at establishing the paragraph 4, of the Paris prerequisites for Tonga to develop an Agreement; economy-wide GHG emission reduction 24 Annex target as part of its 2025 NDC, accounting for anthropogenic emissions or removals from energy, AFOLU and waste, following the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, using the tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. (e) How the Party has In alignment with its 2020 NDC, Tonga is addressed Article 4, preparing a long-term low emission paragraph 6, of the Paris development strategy to be launched in Agreement. 2021. 7. How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 (a) How the nationally As part of its 2020 NDC, Tonga has identified determined contribution a clear and transparent target to reduce contributes towards achieving GHG emissions and charted a course the objective of the towards gradually increasing its ambitions in Convention as set out in its the future by expanding its target from a

Article 2; sector-specific to an economy-wide target. As part of its 2020 NDC, Tonga has also identified clear targets towards increasing the country’s ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. As part of its 2020 NDC, Tonga has also identified where financing will be required to achieve its targets. (b) How the nationally As part of its 2020 NDC, Tonga has identified determined contribution a clear and transparent target to reduce contributes towards Article 2, GHG emissions and charted a course paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, towards gradually increasing its ambitions in paragraph 1, of the Paris the future by expanding its target from a Agreement. sector-specific to an economy-wide target. 25 Annex A2. Impacts of climate change on Tonga For the purpose of clarity and transparency, this section assesses the impact of five different phenomena related to climate change in Tonga: changes in temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea levels, ocean acidification, and the occurrence of tropical cyclones. It summarizes what can be regarded as consensus in the existing literature, highlights areas of uncertainty, and indicates areas in need of future research. Table 3. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga Phenomen Confiden Projections in existing Potential Impacts on ce literature PACCSAP GoT 2019 2014 Rise in Very high Increase in Increase in xDecreased yield temperatur temperature surface air and quality of es s by up to temperature crops 1.0°C by by up to 0.7°C xReduced fish catch 2030 and up ± 0.2°C by and degradation to 1.8-4.1°C 2030, 2.6°C ± of corals by 2090 0.3°C by 2090 xIncrease in vector- (high and waterborne emissions) diseases Increase in Low Little change Increase of xIncrease in rainfall in annual annual mean flooding and mean rainfall rainfall by 2-3% damage to by 2030 under infrastructure a high xDecrease in emissions agricultural scenario productivity High More More extreme xDegradation of extreme rain rain events coral reefs due to events pollution of coastal areas by sediments and debris xIncrease in vector- and waterborne diseases 26 Annex Occurrence Low Decrease Little change is xDecrease in of slightly in projected in agricultural droughts frequency of the incidence productivity droughts of droughts xReduced access to drinking water and reduced food security Rise in sea Very high Rise in sea Rise in mean xLand loss levels levels by 7– sea levels by xDamage to 18 cm by 7cm - 27cm by infrastructure and 2030 and 41– 2030 and 11 - property 88 cm by 51cm by 2055 xSalinization of 2090 groundwater xMigration of population xDegradation of coral reefs Table 2. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga (continued) Phenomen Confiden Projections in existing Potential Impacts on ce literature (direction PACCSAP GoT 2019 of 2014 change) Increase in Very high Aragonite Continue xDestruction of ocean saturation trend of coral reefs acidificatio levels in the acidification xReduced catch of n ocean will calcifying decrease to invertebrates and 3.5Ω by 2035 demersal fish and continue to decline after Decline in Medium Decrease in Decrease in xDecrease in frequency frequency of number but agricultural but cyclones of increase in productivity with increase in 6% to 35% intensity of severe damage to intensity of cyclones in the perennial tree Increase in cyclones southeast crops such as mean Pacific Ocean coconuts, maximum wind speed of basin 27 Annex cyclones of bananas, and between 2% breadfruit and 11% xDestruction of infrastructure xDamage of coral reefs xIncrease in vector- and waterborne diseases Source: Compiled by GGGI Rise in temperatures Under all emission scenarios, temperatures in Tonga are predicted to rise. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2014) indicate that temperatures will increase by 1.0°C by 2030 under all emission scenarios, and between 0.2°C and 4.1°C by 2090 depending on the emission scenario. In its Third National Communication, the Government of Tonga (2019) suggests an increase in temperature of up to 0.7°C by 2030 and 2.6°C by 2090. An increase in temperatures has direct repercussions for agriculture, fishery, and human health. First, impacts from rising temperatures are expected to be particularly pronounced in the agriculture sector. Agriculture is a crucial sector in Tonga, accounting for approximately 15% of the country’s GDP in 2018/19, with a quarter of the country’s employed laborers working in agriculture, forestry and fishing (Tonga Statistics Department 2019; Tonga Statistics Department 2018). Furthermore, in 2015, more than 80% of Tonga’s population were engaged in agriculture to meet their own food needs or earn cash income through sale, with squash, yam, taro, sweet potato and cassava representing the most common crops (MAFF et al. 2015). Higher temperatures can lead to lower crop yields because levels of photosynthesis decrease at temperatures above 25°C for tropical crops, like sweet potato, cassava, taro, and yams (Hay et al. 2003). Second, according to Dutra et al. 2018, increase in temperature along with nutrient enrichment and ocean acidification can affect corals’ immune response, thus increasing the susceptibility of corals to diseases and affecting their survivability and growth. Higher sea surface temperatures of Tonga’s coastal waters have reportedly led to reduced fish catch as a result of widespread coral bleaching (Government of Tonga 2018b). 28 Annex Third, Tonga, along with most Pacific island countries, faces effects of water scarcity, vector-, food- and waterborne diseases (McIver et al. 2016). Increasing temperatures are known to facilitate the spread of foodborne diseases such as diarrheal disease, ciguatera and salmonella, due to an increase in the concentration of certain pathogens in food along the pathway from preparation and handling to cooking, serving and storing (WHO 2015). In addition, an increase in temperature may exacerbate Tonga’s incidences of non- communicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. As one of the countries with the highest obesity and diabetes rates worldwide — affecting two in five and one in five Tongans respectively — an increase in temperature may contribute to further worsening of public health (WHO 2016). For example, temperature extremes put type-2 diabetes patients at increased risk (Hajat et al. 2017). Similarly, Moellering and Smith (2012) suggest that as air conditioning increases with the rise in temperatures, energy expenditure of the human body decreases which may contribute to rising obesity rates. Increase in extreme rainfall events Projections for the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns are subject to considerable uncertainty. While existing projections suggest with high confidence that extreme rain events will occur more frequently, there is low confidence that mean annual rainfall will be affected by climate change (Government of Tonga 2019; Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014). An increase in extreme rain events can be expected to adversely impact infrastructure, agriculture, and public health in Tonga. First, an increase in extreme rainfall events threatens to reduce agricultural productivity in Tonga (Government of Tonga 2018b). As a large share of Tonga’s population relies on subsistence agriculture, reduced production might threaten food security of many households. Furthermore, lower productivity as a result of an increase in extreme rainfall events will likely affect revenue from agriculture exports which are vital for the Tongan economy (Government of Tonga 2019). In 2019, agriculture products represented almost half of the country’s export revenue (National Reserve Bank of Tonga 2019). Second, Tonga occasionally faces heavy rainfall that causes flooding and prolonged ponding of water, which is associated with health risks such as waterborne and vector diseases, including dengue fever (Fakhruddin 2015). In 2017, the Tongan Ministry of Health has expressed concerns with the increased 29 Annex risk of dengue fever due to heavy rainfall (Tonga Broadcasting Commission 2017). Moreover, in the Pacific, WHO (2015) identified diarrheal illness as the most significant category of waterborne disease caused by changes in temperature, rainfall and humidity. Third, while a systematic analysis is prevented by paucity of data, extreme rainfall events are considered to cause considerable damage to infrastructure. Finally, heavy rainfall in combination with insufficient drainage systems increases surface runoff, resulting in the pollution of nearby coastal areas due to sediments and debris washing into these areas (Government of Tonga 2018b). Occurrence of droughts Existing projections suggest little change in the incidence of droughts in Tonga due to climate change. However, confidence levels behind these projections are low since the confidence level of changes in mean rainfall change is low. Furthermore, there is no consensus about projected changes in ENSO and their impact on rainfall patterns (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014; Government of Tonga 2019). Although droughts might not increase due to climate change, they already pose a threat, particularly to Tonga’s agriculture sector and public health. If climate change was to result in more prolonged droughts, their impact would further increase. First, agricultural droughts — i.e. insufficient soil moisture to meet the needs of a crop — are already occurring regularly in Tonga (Government of Tonga 2019). Such droughts severely affect agriculture productivity in the country, resulting in stunted growth of annual crops such as squash, vegetables, yams, sweet potatoes, root crops, and coconuts (Government of Tonga 2018b; FAO and MAFF 2014). Second, despite the uncertainty in the projection of droughts in Tonga, droughts already pose health threats to the country’s population. For example, prolonged dry periods have caused reduced access to potable water (Fakhruddin 2015). Historically, droughts in 1982-83 and 1997-98 resulted in water shortage, devastating agriculture harvests in those years and causing food shortages (Government of Tonga 2018a). Such threats would be exacerbated in case the frequency or intensity of droughts were to increase as a result of climate change. 30 Annex Rise in sea levels Sea levels in Tongan territorial waters are predicted to rise under all emissions scenarios, though projections show considerable differences in the magnitude of that rise, with projections suggesting a 7-27cm rise by 2030 and an increase of 11-88cm by 2090 (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014; Government of Tonga 2019). Rising sea levels have a large spectrum of potential impacts, from land loss to salinization of ground water to degradation of coral reefs and migration, among others. First, along with many countries in the South Pacific, Tonga has experienced the risk of inundation and flooding as a result of sea level rise, making low-lying islands inhabitable (Mimura 1999). Additionally, short duration coastal flooding events can have devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure that further increases risks to populations residing in coastal areas (Aucan 2018). While a systematic analysis is prevented by paucity of data, more than 80% of Tonga’s population resides within a distance of less than 1km from the shore, suggesting a very high vulnerability to rising sea levels (Neil et al. 2019). Sea level rise combined with extreme weather events is likely to contribute to an increase in inundation of low-lying areas. Estimates suggest that flooding and inundation will affect approximately 4% to 14% of the total population of Tongatapu (Rawat et al. 2016). Even under a medium emissions scenario, 4 considerable parts of Tongatapu are projected to be inundated by 2090. In particular, this would affect Nuku’alofa and the northern coasts of Tongatapu (Climate Central 2020). Ultimately, a considerable share of the population may have to relocate closer to the center of the islands. Second, rise in sea level will cause seawater intrusion in low lying coastal areas, which can reduce the availability of freshwater as salinity of groundwater increases (Government of Tonga 2018b). Furthermore, the marginal areas of farmland on the coast are expected to experience higher moisture and increased salinization due to inundation or flooding, reducing their suitability for agriculture (Rawat et al. 2016). Land loss, in addition to saltwater intrusion, is also predicted to reduce the availability of potable water (Fakhruddin 2015). 4 Medium emissions scenario is based on RCP 4.5 and consistent with the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 2°C (Climate Central 2020). 31 Annex Increase in ocean acidification Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes more CO2 to be absorbed by the world’s oceans. As more CO2 dissolves in the sea, ocean pH decreases, and aragonite saturation levels fall. This process is commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to projected decreases in ocean pH and aragonite saturation levels, as corals and crustaceans use aragonite to build their skeletons. At atmospheric concentrations of CO2 above 450 ppm, aragonite levels could fall to levels that make it impossible for corals to sustain building their skeletons (Bell et al. 2011). In Tonga, aragonite saturation levels are predicted to decrease to 3.5Ω by 2035 and continue to decline further (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014, Government of Tonga 2019), threating corals’ reef-building calcification rates and structural integrity, making coral reefs the most vulnerable marine habitat in the tropical Pacific region (Fakhruddin 2015). In particular, according to Dutra et al. 2018, increase in ocean acidification is expected to impact on coral physiology (calcification rates, ability to repair tissues and growth), behavior (feeding rate), reproduction (early life-stage survival, timing of spawning) as well as weaken calcified structures, and alter coral stress- response mechanisms (Fabricius et al. 2015; Fabricius et al. 2011). In addition, ocean acidification is predicted to pose moderate to high risk to the demersal fish and intertidal invertebrates with shells made of calcium carbonate (Fakhruddin 2015). These combined impacts could potentially have detrimental consequences for fisheries (IPCC 2014; Dutra et al. 2018). With more than 13% of Tongan households engaged in fisheries for both consumption and sale, this would affect a considerable share of the population (Tonga Statistics Department 2018). 32 Annex Decline in frequency but increase in intensity of cyclones While the number of cyclones is projected to decrease, their intensity in the Southeast Pacific Ocean basin in Tonga will increase (Government of Tonga 2019). The frequency is predicted to decrease varying from 6% to 35%, while the mean maximum wind speeds are predicted to increase between 2% and 11% (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014). However, these projections are made with only moderate confidence. If climate change was to lead to an increase in the intensity of cyclones, it can be expected that the already existing negative impacts on agriculture, coral reefs and fisheries, and public health would be exacerbated. First, Tonga is regularly affected by cyclones which cause considerable damage to agriculture and related infrastructure. Cyclones are accompanied by heavy winds, rainfall, and storm surges that devastate crops and trees (FAO 2010). For instance, Cyclone Gita in 2018 significantly damaged perennial tree crops, such as coconuts, bananas and breadfruit (Government of Tonga 2018b). Cyclone Harold in 2020 contributed a drop in agricultural export volumes by nearly 30%, with lower exports of taro and cassava (National Reserve Bank of Tonga. 2020). In addition, cyclones contribute to soil erosion and salinization, which lead to loss of soil nutrients in coastal areas and stream catchments, creating unfavorable conditions for crop cultivation (FAO 2010; Government of Tonga 2018b). In addition, past cyclones have caused considerable damage to infrastructure, such as transport infrastructure and buildings. In turn, some of that infrastructure is essential to support the agriculture sector, like farm buildings and fences (FAO 2010). Second, cyclones – in combination with heavy rainfall – affect coral reefs, fisheries and related infrastructure (Dutra et al. 2018; FAO 2014). Once damage has been done by cyclones, fish habitats such as coral reefs take years to re-establish and function normally, thus negatively affecting ecosystems that depend on coral reefs (Government of Tonga 2019). Furthermore, cyclones destroy fishing vessels and equipment. For example, Cyclone Ian in 2014 severely devastated the fisheries sector of Ha’apai, due to damage sustained to fishing boats, outboard motors and an estimated 100% of all fishing gears (FAO 2014). If climate change was to cause an increase in the intensity of cyclones, the damage to coral reefs and fisheries would increase accordingly. Third, cyclones, along with other extreme weather events, have a direct impact on health, especially from water contamination (WHO 2015). As tropical cyclones bring heavy rainfall and provoke flooding, water treatment plants tend to be 33 Annex overwhelmed, leading to cross-contamination between sewage and drinking water pipes, sewage overflow, or bypass into local waterways (Semenza and Nichols 2007). References Aucan, Jerome. 2018. Effects of Climate Change on Sea Levels and Inundation Relevant to the Pacific Islands. Pacific Marine Climate Change Report Card. 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Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartA_FINAL.pdf Bell, Johann D.; Johanna E. Johnson; Alex S. Ganachaud; Peter C. Gehrke; Alistair J. Hobday; Ove Hoegh- Guldberg; Robert Le Borgne; Patrick Lehodey; Janice M. Lough; Tim Pickering; Morgan S. Pratchett; and Michelle Waycott. 2011. Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change: Summary for Pacific Island Countries and Territories. Secretariat of the Pacific Community. Noumea, New Caledonia. https://www.spc.int/sites/default/files/wordpresscontent/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/1-front- end.pdf Climate Central. 2020. Coastal Risk Screening Tool. Land projected to be below annual flood level in 2090. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/12/-175.2014/- 21.1736/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=coastal_dem_comparison&contiguous=true&elevatio n_model=coastal_dem&forecast_year=2090&pathway=rcp45&percentile=p50&return_level=retur n_level_1&slr_model=kopp_2014 Dutra, Leo X.C.; Michael D.E. Haywood; Shubha Shalini Singh; Marta Ferreira; Johanna E. Johnson; Joeli Veitayaka; Stuart Kininmonth; Cherrie W. Morris. 2018. “Effects of Climate Change on Corals Relevant to the Pacific Islands”. Pacific Marine Climate Change Report Card. Science Review 2018, pp. 132-158. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/9_Corals.pdf Fabricius, K.; A. Kluibenschedl; L. Harrington; S. Noonan; and G. De’ath. 2015. “In situ changes of tropical crustose coralline algae along carbon dioxide gradients”. Science Reports 5, 9537 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep09537 34 Annex Fabricius, Katharina E.; Chris Langdon, Sven Uthicke, Craig Humphrey, Sam Noonan, Glenn De’ath, Remy Okazaki, Nancy Muehllehner, Martin Glas, and Janice M. Lough. 2011. “Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations”. Nature Climate Change Vol. 1, pp. 165-169. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257233508_Supplementary_information Fakhruddin, Bapon. 2015. Climate Risk Management in Water Sector in Tonga. https://www.sprep.org/attachments/VirLib/Tonga/climate-risk-management-water-sector.pdf Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and Ministry of Agriculture, Food, Forests and Fisgheries. 2014. Cyclone Ian in Ha’apai. Rapid damage assessment to the agriculture and fisheries sectors report. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Haapai%20Cyclone%20Ian%20Agricultur e%20Damage%20Report%20Final%20Feb%2021%202013.pdf Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 2010. Pacific Food Security Toolkit. Building Resilience to Climate Change. Root Crop and Fishery Production. Rome, Italy. http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/am014e/am014e.pdf Government of Tonga. 2019. Third National Communication on Climate Change Report. Government of Tonga. 2018a. El Niño and drought Watch for Tonga. Government of Tonga. 2018b. Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2018-2028. Hajat, S; A. Haines; C Sarran; A. Sharma; C. Bates; and L. E. Fleming. 2017. “The effect of ambient temperature on type-2-diabetes: case-crossover analysis of 4+ million GP consultations across England”. Environmental health. Vol. 16, 73 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-017- 0284-7 Hay, John E., Nobuo Mimura, John Campbell, Solomone Fifita, Kanayathu Koshy, Roger F. McLean, Taito Nakalevu, Patrick Nunn, and Neil de Wet. 2003. Climate Variability and Change and Sea-level Rise in the Pacific Islands: Region: A Resource Book for Policy and Decision Makers, Educators and Other Stakeholders. https://www.cakex.org/sites/default/files/Climate%20Variability%20and%20Change%20and%20 Sea-level%20Rise.pdf McIver, Lachlan; Rokho Kim; Alistair Woodward, Simon Hales; Jeffery Spickett; Dianne Katscherian; Masahiro Hashizume; Yasushi Honda; Ho Kim; Steven Iddings; Jyotishma Naicker; Hilary Bambrick; Anthony J. McMichael; Kristie L. Ebi. 2016. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities. Environmental Health Perspectives. 2016, 124 (11), pp. 1707–14. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756 Ministry of Agriculture, Food, Forests and Fisheries et al. 2015; TNAC 2015 Ministry of Agriculture, Food, Forests and Fisheries (MAFF), Tonga Statistics Department, and Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO). 2015. Tonga National Agriculture Census. Main Report. Nuku’alofa. https://tongastats.gov.to/census/agriculture-census/ Moellering, Douglas R, and Daniel L Smith Jr. 2012. “Ambient Temperature and Obesity.” Current Obesity Reports. Vol. 1,1 (2012), pp. 26-34. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3975627/pdf/nihms562929.pdf 35 Annex National Reserve Bank of Tonga. 2020. Overseas Exchange Transactions (OET). November 2019. 29 May 2020. http://www.reservebank.to/data/documents/indicators/OET/2019/NRBT_OET_Nov19.pdf Neil, L. Andrew; Phil Bright; Luis de la Rua; Shwu Jiau Teoh; Methew Vickers. 2019. Coastal proximity of populations in 22 Pacific Island Countries and Territories. PLoS ONE 14(9). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223249 Semenza, Jan; and Gordon Nichols. 2007. “Cryptosporidiosis surveillance and water-borne outbreaks in Europe.” Euro Surveill, Vol. 12, pp. 120-123. https://doi.org/10.2807/esm.12.05.00711-en Tonga Broadcasting Commission. 2017. Tonga is vulnerable to the virus of dengue fever. http://www.tonga-broadcasting.net/?p=5768 Tonga Statistics Department. 2019. National Accounts Statistics. Gross Domestic Products Highlights 2018-2019. https://tongastats.gov.to/statistics/economics/national-accounts/ Tonga Statistics Department. 2018. Tonga 2016 Census of Population and Housing. Volume 1: Basic Tables and Administrative Report. Second Edition. Nuku’alofa. Rawat, Nidhi; M S Umesh Babu; Sunil Nautiyal. 2016. "Climate change and sea level rise: A review of studies on low lying and Island countries". Institute for Social and Economic Change. Working Paper 359. Bangalore. http://www.isec.ac.in/WP%20359%20- %20Sunil%20Nautiyal%20et%20al.pdf World Health Organization (WHO). 2016. Diabetes country profiles. Tonga. https://www.who.int/diabetes/country-profiles/ton_en.pdf?ua=1 World Health Organization (WHO). 2015. Human health and climate change in Pacific Island countries. WHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific. Manila. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/208253 36 Annex A3. Tonga NDC Review Report The Tonga NDC Review Report is annexed herewith for information purpose only. It can be accessed on the Department of Climate Change portal www.climatechange.gov.to. 37 Kingdom of Tonga Tonga Nationally Determined Contributions Review Report This document has been produced with the financial support of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub under the Review and Enhancement of Tonga Nationally Determined Contributions. This project is part of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub’s support to the Government of Tonga in implementing, enhancing and financing its NDCs. The NDC Hub is financed by the governments of Germany, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Australia. The NDC Hub is managed by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) in partnership with the Pacific Community (SPC), the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI). The Hub has a close collaboration with the NDC Partnership’s Support Unit (NDCP SU). The NDC Hub is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) of the United Kingdom, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) of Australia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) of New Zealand. 2 | Page CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF BOXES ....................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 5 1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 6 1.1 Paris Agreement and Nationally Determined Contributions ........................................ 6 1.2 Tonga’s Nationally Determined Contributions ................................................................ 6 2 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................... 8 3 MITIGATION ............................................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Energy .................................................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Industrial Processes and Product Use ............................................................................ 17 3.3 Agriculture, Forestry and oOther Land use .................................................................... 18 3.4 Waste.................................................................................................................................... 20 4 ADAPTATION .............................................................................................................................22 4.1 Targets ................................................................................................................................. 22 4.2 Implementation .................................................................................................................. 25 4.3 Communication .................................................................................................................. 26 5 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................... 28 6 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................. 32 7 ANNEX........................................................................................................................................ 33 A1. Interview Notes ........................................................................................................................ 33 A2. List of interview participants and contact information ...................................................... 46 3 | Page LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Targets for the electricity sector .............................................................................................. 12 Table 2. Transmission and distribution losses across Tonga’s four main networks ...................... 14 Table 3. GHG emissions reported in the 2015 INDC and Third National Communication (in gigagrams) ........................................................................................................................................ 17 Table 4. Estimated carbon sequestration .............................................................................................. 19 Table 5. JNAP 2 targets by category ....................................................................................................... 23 Table 6. Example of matching goals with measures ........................................................................... 25 Table 7. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga ............................................ 26 Table 8. Summary of recommendations ............................................................................................... 29 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Options for enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions ............................................ 8 Figure 2. Estimated greenhouse gas emissions by sector in gigagrams (2006)2 ............................ 10 Figure 3. Electricity generation by fuel in Tonga .................................................................................. 12 Figure 4. Electricity generation by fuel in Tongatapu .......................................................................... 13 Figure 5. Electricity generation by fuel in Ha’apai ............................................................................... 13 Figure 6. Electricity generation by fuel in Vava’u ................................................................................. 14 Figure 7. Electricity generation by fuel in ‘Eua ..................................................................................... 14 LIST OF BOXES Box 1. Marine Protected Areas................................................................................................................ 24 4 | Page List of Abbreviations °C degree Celsius AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use cm centimeter CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent COVID-19 Corona virus disease 2019 CTCN Climate Technology Centre and Network DPE Department of Energy Gg Gigagram GGGI Global Green Growth Institute GHG Greenhouse gas GWh Gigawatt per hour ha hectare HFO high sulphur fuel oil ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IOM International Maritime Organisation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use JNAP 2 Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2 km kilometer km2 square kilometer LED light-emitting diode LPG liquefied petroleum gas LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MAFF CP Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forests corporate plan MPA Marine Protected Area MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt per hour NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions Ωar aragonite saturation state PACCSAP Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Program TNC Third National Communication TERM Tonga Energy Road Map TPL Tonga Power Limited UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP-WCMC United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USD United States Dollar WRI World Resources Institute 5 | Page 1. Background Paris Agreement and Nationally Determined Contributions The Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, mentioning three specific means to achieve that aim: 1. Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre- industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, 2. Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, and 3. Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-resilient development. To achieve its ambitious long-term goals, the Paris Agreement introduced the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, governments initially developed Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and submitted these to the secretariat of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bonn, Germany. With the ratification of the Paris Agreement, those INDCs became Nationally Determined Contributions (Fransen et al., 2017). These NDCs represent a five-year cycle of pledges and reviews of governments’ actions to mitigate their countries’ contribution to climate change. Each party1 to the Paris Agreement is required to prepare and submit a successive NDC every five years to the UNFCCC secretariat (UNFCCC, 2015). This NDC review process was designed to provide a formal framework within which governments would increase the ambition of their actions against climate change and reduce its GHG emission over time, with the intention that each successive NDC would represent a progression beyond a country’s current NDC and ultimately allow to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement goal. Following the submission of each NDC to the UNFCCC secretariat, governments are required to pursue domestic measures to achieve their mitigation objectives. While most of the submitted NDCs have contained information on adaptation, this is not required. Parties are invited to submit and periodically update communications on adaptation, which may describe adaptation priorities, implementation and support needs, as well as plans and actions, either through their NDCs or other relevant formats such as national adaptation plans or national communications (UNFCCC, 2015). Tonga’s Nationally Determined Contributions The Government of Tonga developed its INDC and submitted it to the UNFCCC in 2015 and ratified the Paris Agreement on 21st September 2016. When the Paris Agreement came into force on 4 th November 2016, Tonga’s INDC submitted in 2015 automatically became Tonga’s first NDC. The Department of Climate Change is currently developing Tonga’s second NDC. Specifically, the department is reviewing the progress made to date towards achieving the targets identified in the 2015 INDC and identifying means of how to enhance the 2020 NDC. As part of this process, the Department of Climate Change takes a coordinating role in gathering input from stakeholders, both for evaluating progress on the 2015 INDC and designing the 2020 NDC. Once the 2020 NDC has been drafted, its contents will be agreed across ministries and departments, 1 A party to the Paris Agreement is a country which has ratified the agreement. 6 | Page prior to seeking approval from cabinet. Finally, the document will be approved by the cabinet prior to being communicated to the UNFCCC secretariat. This report presents the progress made towards achieving the targets set in Tonga’s 2015 INDC. It also presents a set of recommendations to be considered for the development of the country’s 2020 NDC. The Department of Climate Change seeks input from all relevant stakeholders on the findings of this report as guidance for drafting Tonga’s 2020 NDC. The department expects to draft the 2020 NDC in the fourth quarter of this year. This report is one of the deliverables of the project Review and Enhancement of Tonga Nationally Determined Contribution. The project is part of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub’s support to the Government of Tonga in implementing, enhancing and financing its NDCs. The project is being led by the Department of Climate Change and implemented by the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), on behalf of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub. 7 | Page 2. Methodology This report has two principal purposes. First, it reviews the 2015 INDC, determining the progress made to date towards achieving the identified targets. Second, it puts forward recommendations for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. First, the review presented in this report addresses the progress made towards existing goals and targets for both the mitigation and adaptation components of Tonga’s 2015 INDC. Within each component, the review considered three elements: 1. To what extent identified targets have been achieved, 2. To what extent implementation is supported by identifying specific measures — or the lack thereof — to achieve the identified targets, 3. How targets and measures are communicated, with a particular focus on the available data, including important gaps and inconsistencies. Second, recommendations were developed to inform the scope and content of the 2020 NDC. There are a number of options for governments of how to enhance or update their NDCs. Following Fransen et al. (2017), these options include (Figure 1):  Updating or adding relevant information,  Revising and/or expanding the existing goals and targets,  Providing information on specific measures to achieve those goals, and  Improving the clarity, transparency, and understanding of their NDCs. Figure 1. Options for enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions Source: Adapted from Fransen et al. (2017) The analysis presented in this report was informed by publicly available data sets and reports, in- country interviews with stakeholders in Tonga facilitated by the Department of Climate Change, and data gathered as a result of these interviews. 8 | Page Interviews were held during the period of 9th March to 30th April 2020. Travel restrictions imposed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic prevented the GGGI team from travelling to Tonga for face- to-face interviews. Therefore, all interviews were conducted remotely via video calls. A summary of these interviews is available in Annex 1 of this report. The list of the individuals interviewed from both public and private entities is available in Annex 2. The contents of this report were discussed and its findings were validated by the JNAP technical team on 24th July and during a 2-day validation workshop with relevant stakeholders on 30th and 31st July 2020. At the validation workshops, the following 3 questions were asked:  Question 1. Do you agree with the results of the review of the 2015 INDC? Would you like to add any comments regarding the achievement of targets in the 2015 INDC?  Question 2. Do you agree with the recommendations made for your sector for the 2020 NDC? Other than the recommendations presented, do you have any other recommendations for the 2020 NDC?  Question 3. How can the suggested 2020 NDC targets be achieved in Tonga? What are the barriers and opportunities? What enabling actions need to be taken? The feedback in response to questions 1 and 2 was integrated into the review and recommendations of this report. Responses to question 3 on barriers, opportunities and enabling actions will be considered for drafting the 2020 NDC. Feedback collected addressing question 3 is presented in this report in Annex 3. 9 | Page 3. Mitigation Mitigation refers to human interventions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources or enhance their removal from the atmosphere (UNFCCC, 2009). In other words, mitigation can be broken down into two components. First, it includes any activities that decrease the emission of greenhouse gases, such as switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources for electricity generation. Second, mitigation refers to removing GHG emissions from the atmosphere via carbon sinks, such as vegetations and soils absorbing carbon dioxide (CO 2) The 2019 refinement to the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories identifies the following sectors as relevant sources for GHG emissions (IPCC, 2019):  Energy, including electricity generation, transport, and commercial, institutional and residential end-use,  Industrial processes and product use (IPPU),  Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), and  Waste. Available information suggests that Tonga’s GHG emissions originate from two main sources: 1. Burning of fossil fuels, and 2. Conversion of forest and grassland (Government of Tonga, 2019; Figure 2).2 Figure 2. Estimated greenhouse gas emissions by sector in gigagrams (2006) 2 GHG emissions (in Share in total GHG Gg) emissions Waste, 0.3% Energy 120.4 39% Energy, Agriculture 1.8 0.6% 39% LULUCF 187.4 60% LULUCF , 60% Agricult Waste 0.9 0.3% ure, Total 310.2 100% 0.6% Source: Government of Tonga (2019) Tonga’s 2015 INDC includes the following mitigation targets (Government of Tonga, 2015):  50% of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2020,  70% of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2030,  Reduction of line losses of electricity to 9% by 2020, 2 The Government of Tonga’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC distinguishes between (1) agriculture and (2) land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) as separate sectors for GHG emissions (Government of Tonga, 2019). While this report generally follows the guidance provided by the 2019 refinement to the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national GHG inventories (IPCC, 2019), figure Figure 2 presents data as reported by the Government of Tonga in order to be consistent with the source of the data. 10 | P a g e  Double the number of Marine Protected Areas by 2030, compared to 2015, 3  Development of GHG emission reduction targets for the following sectors: transport, agriculture, waste, and forestry.4 None of these targets was formulated in the form of quantifying reductions in GHG emissions. For the 2020 NDC, it is recommended that targets are formulated in terms of GHG emissions reductions, to the extent possible. This chapter summarizes the 2015 INDC distinguishing between the four sectors put forward as part of the 2006 IPCC guidelines and assesses the progress made towards achieving the identified targets. It also highlights important gaps within the 2015 INDC, such as missing sector targets, gaps in identifying measures to achieve the existing targets, and lack of and inconsistencies in the available data and calculations. Finally, under each section, the report suggests a set of recommendations for the 2020 NDC. 3.1 Energy 3.1.1 Targets Targets for the energy sector only refer to electricity generation, with the aim to generate 50% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020 and 70% by 2030, as well as to reduce line losses to 9% by 2020 (Government of Tonga, 2015). These targets are largely consistent with other policy documents, such as the second Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2 (JNAP 2) and the Tonga Energy Road Map (TERM) (Table 1). 3 The 2015 INDC lists the target of doubling the number of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) as part of mitigation. However, in-country interviews suggested that this target should be considered under adaptation. This review discusses MPAs under adaptation (see Box 1. Marine Protected Areas). 4 The 2015 INDC refers to “Sector Emission Reduction Targets: Transport, Agriculture, Environment Friendly Waste Management and Reforestation”. It is not clear whether this refers to the objective of (1) setting GHG emission targets for these sectors or (2) reducing GHG emissions from these sectors. In the context of this review, the statement is interpreted as referring to setting GHG emission targets for the mentioned sectors. 11 | P a g e Table 1. Targets for the electricity sector Target Source 50% of electricity generated from renewable sources 2018 Joint National Action Plan 2, 2015 Intended by 2020 Nationally Determined Contributions, 2010 Tonga Energy Road Map 50% of electricity generated from renewable sources 2015 Tonga Strategic Development Framework 2 by 2025 70% of electricity generated from renewable sources 2018 Joint National Action Plan 2, 2015 Intended by 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions 100% of electricity generated from renewable 2018 Joint National Action Plan 2 sources by 2035 Reduction of line losses to 9% of total generation in 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, 2020 2010 Tonga Energy Road Map Source: Compiled by GGGI In Tonga, electricity is generated from Figure 3. Electricity generation by fuel in Tonga diesel, solar and wind. According to in- country interviews, Tonga is on track 70 Electricity generated in GWh to achieve the target of 50% electricity 60 generation from renewable sources 50 by 2020. The target refers to the fiscal year 2020, which ends in June 2021. 40 Data made available by the utility — 30 Tonga Power Limited (TPL) — shows 20 that the share of electricity generated from renewables increased from 7% 10 in 2016 to 11% in 2019 (TPL, 2020a; 0 Figure 3). 2016 2017 2018 2019 Shares of electricity generated from Diesel Renewables renewable sources diverge Source: TPL 2020a considerably across the four main networks, with the highest share reported for Ha’apai at nearly 29% in 2019 (figure 5) and the lowest share in Vava’u at less than 3% in 2019 (figure 6). Tongatapu, as the largest network by far, saw a share of slightly more than 11% of electricity generation from renewables in 2019 (figure 4). Data for the ‘Eua network shows a share of approximately 5% of electricity generation from renewables in 2019 (TPL, 2020a; figure 7). 12 | P a g e Currently, solar and wind farms Figure 4. Electricity generation by fuel in Tongatapu represent approximately 30% of total installed electricity 60 Electricity generated in GWh generation capacity. Planned 50 additions of generation capacity will increase the share of 40 renewables in total capacity to 30 more than 60% over the next two years (TPL, 2020c; in-country 20 interviews).5 Given these capacity 10 additions, it is expected that the share of electricity generated from 0 renewable sources will increase 2016 2017 2018 2019 further. However, achieving the Diesel Renewables target of 50% electricity generation from renewables in Source: TPL (2020a) 2020 is extremely ambitious. Figure 5. Electricity generation by fuel in Ha’apai In addition to the four networks, solar off-grid systems represent a 1.6 Electricity generated in GWh total of approximately 0.8 MW, 1.4 equivalent to 4% of total installed capacity (Department of Energy, 1.2 2020). Information on electricity 1.0 generation from these systems is 0.8 not available. Therefore, this 0.6 review does not consider them when assessing electricity 0.4 generation by fuel. However, it is 0.2 estimated that they would only - marginally increase the overall 2016 2017 2018 2019 share of electricity from Diesel Renewables renewables. Source: TPL (2020a) According to in-country interviews, TPL and the Department of Energy are committed to achieve the target of 70% electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030. The existing project pipeline is aimed at meeting the 50% target and it is assumed that further generation capacity will be needed to meet the 70% target by 2030. It is also assumed that considerable battery storage would be required in order to meet the 2030 target. According to data shared by TPL, line losses have been successfully reduced to below 9% of electricity generated for all four networks since 2018 (TPL, 2020b). In the period from 2015 to 2019, line losses were reported below 9% across all four networks for four out of five years (Table 2). In-country interviews confirmed the achievement of this target as a result of significant improvements in the network infrastructure reducing technical losses and the introduction of meters curbing non-technical losses. 5 Planned additions will nearly quadruple total installed capacity of electricity generation from renewables, from 6,642 kW in 2Q2020 to approximately 25,292 kW (TPL, 2020c). 13 | P a g e The 2015 INDC neither includes Figure 6. Electricity generation by fuel in Vava’u any targets for transportation nor Electricity generated in GWh for commercial, institutional and 8 residential end-use of energy. The document states that no targets 6 for reducing GHG emissions from the transport sector have been 4 identified, due to the lack of viable alternatives for fossil fuel in transportation (Government of 2 Tonga, 2015). In-country interviews confirmed that no 0 targets for reducing GHG 2016 2017 2018 2019 emissions have been developed Diesel Renewables for these sectors since 2015. The Source: TPL (2020a) Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2 (JNAP 2) highlights Figure 7. Electricity generation by fuel in ‘Eua energy efficiency measures as an 1.6 important means to reduce GHG Electricity generated in emissions. However, the 1.2 document does not set any specific targets (Government of Tonga, 2018). Therefore, it is GWh 0.8 recommended to derive relevant targets for reducing GHG 0.4 emissions from the transport sector as well as from commercial, - institutional and residential end- 2016 2017 2018 2019 use of energy from the upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan Diesel Renewables (Government of Tonga and CTCN, Source: TPL (2020a) 2020). Table 2. Transmission and distribution losses across Tonga’s four main networks Year Generated Billed electricity Parasitic losses Line losses (MWh) Share of line electricity (MWh) (MWh) (MWh) losses (%) 2015 56,844 50,730 1,572 4,542 8.0% 2016 63,248 56,236 2,308 4,704 7.4% 2017 68,040 59,413 2,101 6,526 9.6% 2018 66,430 59,231 1,809 5,390 8.1% 2019 77,979 69,815 2,265 5,900 7.6% Source: TPL (2020c) 14 | P a g e The 2020 Energy Efficiency Master Plan — in its current draft versions — does not propose a target that quantifies the reduction of GHG emissions from transport. However, the plan suggests that a combination of targets would lead to an estimated reduction of 28% compared to GHG emission levels in 2030 under a business as usual scenario. 6 Among the targets included in the plan, the following selection is regarded as the most relevant to be considered for formulating the 2020 NDC:7  30% improvement in fuel efficiency for newly registered light-duty vehicles, reducing consumption from 10.1 litres per 100 km in 2016 to 7 litres per 100 km in 2030, through registration fees, import tariffs, or fuel economy standards,  10% of all newly registered light-duty vehicles to be electric or hybrid vehicles by 2030.8 Similarly, the Energy Efficiency Master Plan does not propose a target that quantifies the reduction of GHG emissions from commercial, institutional and residential end-use of energy. Instead, the plan proposes several targets. Together, these targets would accumulate to a 35% reduction of GHG emissions from electricity generation, compared to a business as usual scenario.9 Among the targets included in the plan, the following selection is regarded as the most relevant to be considered for formulating the 2020 NDC: 10  Adoption of minimum energy performance standards by 2022, following Australian and New Zealand standards for all fridges, freezers, air conditioners, water heaters, televisions, computers, clothes washing machines, dryers, cooking appliances,  Curtailment of import of non-LED bulbs,  Implementation of energy efficiency standards for buildings and performance of energy audits,11  100% of streetlights retrofitted with LED bulbs. 3.1.2 Implementation The 2015 INDC does not identify specific measures or technologies of how to achieve the proposed targets for the energy sector, nor does it identify technical and financial requirements. While Annex 2 of the document provides a summary of initiatives that are related to mitigation, there is no indication to what extent these initiatives will contribute to reducing GHG emissions (Government of Tonga, 2015). According to in-country interviews, several of the listed initiatives have proven to be technically and/or financially unfeasible. This includes, among others, the development of coconut oil and tidal power as sources for renewable energy. As noted above, 6 The Energy Efficiency Master Plan states that this would be equivalent to an increase of GHG emissions of 1% compared to 2018 (Government of Tonga and CTCN, 2020). 7 The Energy Efficiency Master Plan is also introducing the target of reducing vehicle kilometers traveled by light-duty vehicles by 20%, compared to 2030 business as usual scenario. However, this target is considered as challenging to verify, given current limitations on traffic data. Therefore, it is not recommended to adopt this target as part of the 2020 NDC. 8 This target is identified in the Energy Efficiency Master Plan. However, during consultations, stakeholders only regarded hybrid vehicles as a viable option. Therefore, the specific content of the target will need to be elaborated further. 9 The estimate of a 35% reduction of GHG emissions from electricity generation, compared to a business as usual scenario, is based on data provided as part of the Energy Efficiency Master Plan. The plan itself does not refer to this estimate. 10 The form in which these targets are currently formulated, they rather take the form of measures. However, relevant targets for reductions in GHG emissions can be formulated when assessing the potential impact of these measures. 11 The Energy Efficiency Master Plan does neither specify the energy savings to be achieved by new building standards nor what these standards would entail. 15 | P a g e the technologies that have played the largest role towards achieving the renewable energy targets in the energy sector are solar and wind, combined with battery storage. Planned capacity additions suggest that the role of solar and wind will increase further during the next decade. While the 2015 INDC does not include any target for the transport sector, the document mentions public awareness programs for vehicle maintenance, public transport, as well as use of biofuels, electric vehicles and bicycles as means to reduce emissions from the sector — without quantifying their mitigation potentials (Government of Tonga, 2015). It is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify relevant measures, if any targets for the transport sector are to be included. In many cases, relevant measures can be drawn from existing policies and plans. For example, relevant measures can be derived from the upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan. To reduce GHG emissions from land transport, the plan proposes improving user-friendliness of public transportation, increasing vehicle efficiency through adjusting vehicle registration tax and import fees, and introducing a mandatory minimum standard for blending of biofuels (Government of Tonga and CTCN, 2020).12 Similarly, the 2015 INDC does not include any target for commercial, institutional and residential end-use of energy. It is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify relevant measures, if any targets for commercial, institutional and residential end-use are to be included. The upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan proposes a number of measures that could be reflected in the 2020 NDC. For example, the plan suggests introducing building standards and energy audits to reduce electricity consumption in buildings. Furthermore, it proposes establishing minimum energy performance standards for electrical appliances and creating a revolving fund to finance the adoption of more energy-efficient equipment (Government of Tonga and CTCN, 2020). 3.1.3 Communication There are considerable gaps in the 2015 INDC regarding transparency and clarity for the energy sector. There is no information on which data and which conversion factors were used to estimate GHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. Both the 2015 INDC and the 2019 Third National Communication (TNC) refer to 2006 data in order to estimate GHG emissions. However, for these two data sets are not consistent (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga, 2019; Table 3). This is the result of data for GHG emissions having been revised and updated prior to the Third National Communication (in-country interviews). While the amount of total GHG emissions remained largely unchanged, the sectoral breakdown shows considerable revisions. Therefore, data published as part of the TNC is considered to be more accurate and is generally used for reference in this report, unless stated otherwise. Attempts to recalculate the 2006 data are prevented by the paucity of raw data and uncertainty about the methodology and conversion factors used. However, calculations based on the Department of Energy’s 2018 energy balance are consistent with GHG emissions reported in the Third National Communication. The numbers suggest that little change has occurred in the overall amounts of fossil fuels consumption. Therefore, GHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels should also remain largely unchanged. 12 However, the Energy Efficiency Master Plan does not quantify the contribution of individual measures to achieve the suggested targets. Furthermore, during the validation workshops, stakeholders regarded the blending of biofuel as not feasible, noting that coconut oil is too expensive to be used for biofuel blending and other feedstocks are not available in Tonga. 16 | P a g e Table 3. GHG emissions reported in the 2015 INDC and Third National Communication (in gigagrams) Total Electricity Transport Other Agriculture Land Waste energy conversion1 2015 INDC 300.5 69.1 120.2 15.0 63.1 33.1 Third National 310.4 40.2 72.3 7.8 1.8 187.4 0.9 Communication Source: Government of Tonga (2019), Government of Tonga (2012) 1 According to Tonga’s Second National Communication, conversion of forests and grasslands represents a source of emissions that is comparable to the amount emitted by the combustion of fossil fuels (Government of Tonga, 2012). However, no information is provided on the calculated amount. The 2015 INDC and the Third National Communication both report Tonga to be a net carbon sink, with the INDC reporting carbon removals by forests of approximately 1,691.97 gigagrams for 2006 and the Third National Communication reporting removals of 1,879.37 gigagrams for the same year. It is recommended to ensure the publication of relevant data and calculations in order to permit verification by third parties. This can be done either as part of the 2020 NDC or as part of the national communications to the UNFCCC. If relevant data and calculations are published separately from the NDC document, it should be ensured that the information published is consistent across documents. Furthermore, it is recommended to use the most recent data available for calculating and reporting GHG emissions. Data that is more than 10 years old should be considered outdated. 3.2 Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) The 2015 INDC does not include any targets, measures, or data related to industrial processes and product use (IPPU). However, the sector’s omission does not necessarily reflect a gap in the document. Given the absence of mineral, chemical, metal, electronics and other manufacturing industries as well as the limited use of lubricants, paraffin waxes and solvents, the IPPU sector might have been considered as not sufficiently relevant to be considered as part of the 2015 INDC. For the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to not include a GHG emissions target for the IPPU sector. However, in the light of clarity and transparency, it is suggested to explain that there is no target for two reasons: First, GHG emissions from the sector represent only a fraction of Tonga’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Second, the paucity of data on GHG emissions from the IPPU sector prevents the establishment of a variable target. 17 | P a g e 3.2 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 3.3.1 Targets The 2015 INDC recognizes agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) is crucial for both mitigation and adaptation. However, the document does not set any targets to reduce emissions from the sector. Given the uncertainty of the extent of carbon sequestration, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify a non-emission target for the AFOLU sector. For that purpose, it is suggested to include the establishment of forest inventory to improve clarity and transparency for the sector. In addition, in-country consultations asked for including a second non-emission target envisioning the planting of one million trees by 2023. While such a target can be considered for the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to ascertain the feasibility of this target prior to its inclusion. Finally, it is recommended to include a GHG emissions target for the AFOLU sector in the 2025 NDC, after the successful establishment of a forest inventory. Any such target could be derived from existing targets identified in the 2009 National Forest Policy, including halting deforestation and further degradation of indigenous forests, establishing and managing forest reserves, promoting reforestation and rehabilitation of cleared and degraded forests, and promoting agroforestry (Government of Tonga et al., 2009). However, establishing a forest inventory is required in order to be able to quantify any of these targets in terms of emission reduction or emissions removal. 3.3.2 Implementation The 2015 INDC does not identify any specific measures to reduce GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector. However, existing policies and plans identify relevant means, which could be drawn upon for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. Among others, the National Forest Policy identified intercropping and agroforestry as an option to mitigate GHG emissions. In-country interviews also specifically highlighted these two measures. Complementarily, the Forest Management Plan identified a range of measures to reduce deforestation, such as improving the enforcement of illegal tree clearing, capacity building to promote agroforestry, and applying certification in order to adhere to international standards for sustainable timber production (Ministry of Agriculture Food Forestry and Fisheries, 2017). However, a prerequisite for setting specific targets and identifying measures to reduce GHG emissions is to improve data collection and establish a forest inventory. This is reflected in the National Forest Policy stating that “Tonga needs a comprehensive inventory of its forest resources” (Government of Tonga et al., 2009). Such an inventory will serve as the foundation for analysis, identifying trends and appropriate actions, and evaluating the impact of specific policies and interventions. Currently, the paucity of reliable data leads to significant uncertainty in any larger-scale assessment undertaken in the agriculture and forestry sectors. With basic information regarding forest cover and forest cover change lacking, assessing more complex issues — such as forest regeneration following clearing for agriculture — becomes largely impossible. In return, the paucity of reliable analysis impedes the development of relevant policies to address the issues faced within the sector. Finally, the absence of reliable data also prevents monitoring the impact and evaluating the effectiveness of policies and other interventions. 18 | P a g e 3.3.3 Communication Tonga’s 2015 INDC states that, when land use and forestry are considered, Tonga is a net carbon sink of approximately 1,691.97 gigagrams of CO2e per year, with its forests absorbing substantially more GHG emissions than the amount emitted by all other sectors combined (Government of Tonga, 2015). According to the Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, within the land use and forestry sector, the conversion of forests and grasslands represents the single largest source of GHG emissions in Tonga, accounting for 187.4 gigagrams of CO2e (Government of Tonga, 2019). The Third National Communication also states that GHG emissions from land-use are entirely offset by carbon sequestration from the country’s forests, with changes in forest and other woody biomass capturing an estimated 1,437.54 gigagrams of CO2e and abandonment of managed lands sequestering a further 441.8 gigagrams of CO2e (Government of Tonga, 2019). However, this could not be confirmed by the available land use data. Rather, estimates based on available data shed considerable doubt on whether Tonga constitutes a net carbon sink. Table 4. Estimated carbon sequestration Land category Area (ha) Factor for annual Ratio of below- to Estimated carbon above-ground net- above-ground sequestration biomass growth biomass (gigagrams/year) (tonnes/ha/year) Woodland 6,458.7 3-11 0.37 27-97 Coniferous 371.7 10-50 0.37 5-25 plantation Non-coniferous 129.8 10-50 0.37 2-9 plantation Coconut (grassland, 51,093.4 2-6 0.4 143-429 shrubland and cropland) Mangroves and 1,767.1 3-11 0.37 7-27 wetland (saline and estuarine) Other1 8,866.5 0 0 Total2 68,687.2 184-588 Source: GGGI calculated based on Government of Tonga et al. (2009), IPCC (2006) 1 The category ‘other’ is assumed to represent land covered by settlements. This assumption is based on the following premises: First, according to the National Forest Policy, Tonga’s total land area amounts to 75,210 hectares. Second, the National Forest Policy reports the area covered by lakes and freshwater bodies at 6,523 hectares. Third, the remaining 68,687 hectares fall within the land categories shown in table 3. Within these categories, ‘other’ is the only category eligible to represent land area covered by settlements. 2 Total land area of Tonga does not include lakes and freshwater bodies. Estimates for total land area differ between sources. Table 4 is consistent with the figures published as part of the 2009 National Forest Policy. First, based on the size of different land categories published in Tonga’s National Forest Policy (Government of Tonga, 2009) and applying default factors for average annual above-ground biomass net growth as well as default ratios of below-ground biomass to above-ground biomass for specific vegetation types 19 | P a g e (IPCC, 2006a), it is estimated that changes in vegetation capture between 183 to 588 gigagrams of CO2e per year (Table 4).13 Even under the most optimistic assumptions, this estimate falls short considerably of the 1,437.54 gigagrams of CO2e reported in the Third National Communication and accordingly of the figures referred to in the 2015 INDC. In addition, the estimated range is considered to rather overestimate actual carbon sequestration, since annual carbon losses due to wood removals, fuelwood removal, and disturbance are not captured (IPCC, 2006a). The large variation in the estimate is a result of uncertainty regarding which default factors for above- ground net-biomass growth to apply. In particular, the category covering the largest share of land area — coconut (grassland, shrubland and cropland) — does not distinguish between natural and plantation areas, resulting in a large variance in the estimated amounts. Second, no separate estimate could be made to verify the numbers reported for carbon sequestration as a result of the abandonment of managed lands, as the necessary data was not available. However, if any estimates for abandonment of managed lands were included, the numbers for carbon sequestration from changes in forest and other woody biomass would diminish accordingly. Third, the Third National Communication states that forest area covers 12.5% of Tonga’s landmass, while 43.1% consists of agricultural land, and 44.4% of the land is covered by settlement areas (Government of Tonga, 2019). Given the large share of settlement areas compared to the data published in Tonga’s National Forest Policy, the high amount of reported carbon sequestration becomes even more questionable. In-country interviews confirmed the paucity of reliable data for forestry in Tonga. While a forest inventory is scheduled to be established in 2020-2021, interviewees highlighted the need for capacity building and funding within the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forestry to collect and analyse forestry data. 3.4 Waste 3.4.1 Targets and implementation Similar to the AFOLU and transport sectors, while the 2015 INDC calls for reducing GHG emissions from waste management, no specific targets are set, and no relevant measures are identified for this sector (Government of Tonga, 2015). In-country interviews confirmed that no targets for reducing GHG emissions from waste have been developed since 2015. Given that the waste sector represents only a fraction of Tonga’s GHG emissions — approximately 0.3% according to the Third National Communication, compared to 11% reported in the 2015 INDC (Government of Tonga, 2019; Government of Tonga, 2015) — and the uncertainty in the available data, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to not include a target for reducing GHG from the waste sector. Instead, it is suggested to include a non-emissions target, establishing the necessary preconditions to be able to identify a GHG emissions target for the sector in the 2025 NDC. For that purpose, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to include the target of expanding the formal waste collection system in Tonga beyond Tongatapu. In that context, relevant data should be collected in order to be able to set a quantifiable GHG emissions target for the next NDC cycle. 13 The Forest Management Plan refers to nearly identical figures for the estimated area under the same set of land categories (Ministry of Agriculture Food Forestry and Fisheries, 2017). 20 | P a g e 3.4.2 Communication There are considerable gaps in the 2015 INDC regarding transparency and clarity for the waste sector. There is no information on the amounts of waste, based on which GHG emissions were calculated. In addition, there is no information on the calculation for converting available waste data into estimates for GHG emissions. Both the 2015 INDC and the 2019 Third National Communication refer to 2006 data in order to estimate GHG emissions. However, for these two data sets are not consistent (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga, 2019; Table 3). Instead, data for GHG emissions was revised prior to the Third National Communication and is considered to be more accurate (in-country interviews). According to the 2006 IPCC guidelines, GHG emissions from the waste sector include emissions from (1) solid waste disposal, (2) biological treatment of solid waste, (3) incineration and open burning of waste, and (4) wastewater treatment and discharge (IPCC, 2006a). First, in-country interviews confirmed that only data capturing total amounts for solid waste is available, with no information on composition. Second, according to available data and in-country interviews, there is no biological treatment of solid waste in Tonga. Third, according to the 2016 census and in- country interviews, open burning of waste remains a common practice in Tonga, particularly outside Tongatapu (Tonga Statistics Department, 2017). However, information on the amounts of waste disposed of through the practice of open burning are not available. Finally, there is insufficient information on wastewater treatment and discharge in Tonga. Using the IPCC waste model (IPCC, 2006b), extrapolating the amounts for municipal solid waste reported for Tongatapu (Waste Authority Ltd., 2017), applying default factors for Other Oceania, assuming methane generation rate under moist and wet climatic conditions and no methane recovery at the landfill site, results in minimal GHG emissions from municipal solid waste of less than 1 gigagram. 21 | P a g e 4. Adaptation 4.1 Targets The 2015 INDC refers to strengthening resilience against the adverse impacts of climate change, mentioning specifically the following sectors and areas (Government of Tonga, 2015):  Public infrastructure,  Buildings,  Coastal protection, and  Agriculture sector, mentioning measures such as improved soil management and agroforestry. In alignment with the National Forest Policy, the 2015 INDC also identifies goals to increase resilience in the forestry sector, including (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga et al., 2009):14  Halting deforestation and degradation of indigenous forests,  Maintaining national parks, reserves and protected areas,  Establishing and managing forest reserves,  Promoting reforestation and rehabilitation of cleared and degraded forests with climate change resilient, and ecologically and socially appropriate tree species,  Promoting integrated agroforestry in areas earmarked for agriculture,  Discouraging tree removal on tax allotments,  Encouraging tax allotment holders to plant and manage trees on their properties. In addition to the goals mentioned above, the 2015 INDC also refers to the importance of trees for the protection of coastal areas. While references to strengthening resilience against and adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change are made throughout the document, the 2015 INDC lacks a systematic assessment of adaptation options. This is reflected in the document’s neglect to distinguish between goals and measures to achieve these goals. It is recommended for the Government of Tonga to focus on targets related to coping with the impact of an increase in temperature and a rise in sea level, as there is a high confidence in the available scientific evidence that these two phenomena are a direct manifestation of climate change in Tonga. Other phenomena either entail considerable uncertainty (change in rainfall patterns, occurrence of droughts, occurrence of cyclones) or there are no feasible measures available to respond on a national scale (ocean acidification). In this context, several targets identified by the Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (JNAP 2) can be regarded as relevant. JNAP 2 identifies electricity, transport, agriculture, fisheries, coastal protection and flood management as important areas for adaptation (Government of Tonga, 2018). More importantly, JNAP 2 introduces 20 targets to strengthen resilience against climate change. Several of these targets could be included in the 2020 NDC (table 5). 14 While the 2015 INDC lists these goals in the context of strengthening resilience towards the adverse impacts of climate change, the National Forest Policy lists them as measures in the context of mitigation. 22 | P a g e Table 5. JNAP 2 targets by category Increase in temperature Rise in sea level Other 30% of land in Tonga utilized for Resilient coastal development, Resilient tourism and tourism agro-forestry or forestry infrastructures, and integrated infrastructures coastal ecosystems management Resilient land, air, and marine Strengthened capacity and infrastructures awareness of climate change and disaster risk management among population Resilient public and community Strengthened climate services and infrastructures, early warning systems Water security through integrated water management and conservation Resilient fisheries and marine and Resilient fisheries and marine and coastal ecosystems coastal ecosystems Source: GGGI If any of these targets were to be included in the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to define them more closely and/or make them quantifiable in order to be able to evaluate progress. In addition, JNAP 2 identifies a number of objectives, including:  Mainstreaming climate resilience by strengthening existing decision-making structures, reflecting considerations related climate resilience in government planning and implementation, and developing guidelines,  Strengthening data collection and dissemination by building capacity and systematically sharing data across entities,  Developing a monitoring system to strengthen meteorological services, to assess water and soil conditions,  Raising awareness and increasing access to information within government, private sector, communities, and private households through trainings and web portals,  Increasing access to finance by establishing a coordination mechanism for funding from development partners, simplifying and harmonizing procedures for disbursement. However, it is unclear how these objectives relate to the targets identified earlier. Nevertheless, objectives from the JNAP 2 related to data gathering and monitoring are regarded as the most relevant to be reflected in the 2020 NDC. Both would allow to develop specific targets, increase transparency, and improve communication in later iterations of the Nationally Determined Contributions(post-2020). 23 | P a g e Box 1. Marine Protected Areas The 2015 INDC included a provision calling for the doubling the number of Marine Protected Areas (MPA) by 2030, compared to 2015. However, the document does not elaborate on how an increase in Marine Protected Areas would reduce GHG emissions or strengthen Tonga’s adaptive capacity towards the adverse impact of climate change (Government of Tonga, 2015).15 In-country interviews provided conflicting information on whether increasing the number of Marine Protected Areas is considered a mitigation or an adaptation target. On the one hand, it was mentioned that Marine Protected Areas were included in the 2015 INDC, because they were regarded as a means to maintain or increase the absorption of carbon from the atmosphere by sea organisms. However, the document does not provide any evidence that establishing Marine Protected Areas has a positive effect on carbon sequestration. On the other hand, in-country interviews suggested that the expansion of Marine Protected Areas should be considered as an adaptation target as the aim of MPAs is to preserve marine biodiversity and fish populations. However, the 2015 INDC does also not elaborate on how an increase in the number of MPAs would strengthen adaptive capacity (Government of Tonga, 2015). Independent of the questions whether or not MPAs are a suitable means to support mitigation or strengthen adaptive capacity, in-country consultation suggested that the number of Marine Protected Areas has increased from six in 2015 to ten in 2020. However, this change could not be confirmed by other sources with available data for the period from 2016 to 2018 showing no change in the size of Marine Protected Areas. World Bank (2019) reported a constant 1.5% of Tonga territorial waters — equivalent to approximately 10,050 km2 — to be covered by Marine Protected Areas. 16 This figure coincides with data published as part of the Tonga Fisheries Sector Plan 2016-2024, reporting 10,100 km2 of marine conservation area (Government of Tonga, World Bank, and International Fund for Agricultural Development, 2016). For the 2020 NDC, in-country consultations recommended to consider Marine Protected Areas as a means for mitigation as well as a means for adaptation. Therefore, it is suggested to include a non-emission target for preserving Tonga’s marine biodiversity to function as a carbon sink, considering MPAs as a measure to achieve this target. In addition, Marine Protected Areas could be mentioned under adaptation as a means for coastal protection and food security. However, it should be noted that connecting MPAs to a measurable target is unlikely. While the area covered by MPAs can be measured, it will not be possible to express their impact to function as a carbon sink as well as their effect on resilience as a quantifiable target. 15 This report discusses MPAs as part of adaptation. Independent of whether MPAs are considered under mitigation or adaptation, the principal findings remain unchanged. 16 The total area of territorial waters for Tonga is reported at 668.055 km2 (UNEP-WCMC, 2020). 24 | P a g e 4.2 Implementation The 2015 INDC does not identify measures to strengthen adaptation. In that context, it is very important to distinguish between goals and the means to achieve these goals. This is not the case in the 2015 INDC. While the 2015 INDC refers to a list of goals related to resilience, the National Forest Policy enumerates the same statements as measures (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga et al., 2009). Therefore, in the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to systematically identify relevant goals and the related measures to achieve them. Examples are provided in Table 6 below. Table 6. Example of matching goals with measures Goal Example of related measure Halting deforestation and degradation Conduct a forest inventory identifying drivers of deforestation of indigenous forests Enhance forest monitoring and enforcement of policies by increasing the number of staff. Maintaining national parks, reserves Provide necessary funding to enforce logging ban and protected areas Promoting integrated agroforestry in Develop detailed guidelines for integrated agroforestry practices areas earmarked for agriculture Establish agroforestry pilot projects in selected villages involving extension service workers Source: GGGI Several existing policies and plans identify relevant measures, which could be drawn upon for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. Among others, the 2016 Tonga Agriculture Sector Plan includes measures to support climate-resilient agriculture. In that context, the plan refers to the maintenance of soil conditions, rotational and mixed cropping, diversity in life stock, and water management, among others. For example, in order to maintain soil conditions, the plan proposes to conduct soil surveys and trials with fertilizers and vermiculture. To improve water management, the plan suggests estimating groundwater resource and their current exploitation as well as identifying potential use and/or need for protection (Government of Tonga, World Bank, and IFAD, 2016b).17 Similarly, the National Forest Policy and the Forest Management Plan contain measures to enhance coastal protection in Tonga (Government of Tonga et al., 2009; Ministry of Agriculture Food Forestry and Fisheries, 2017). In addition, JNAP 2 identifies a range of activities to achieve its objectives. Some of these activities could be included in the 2020 NDC if it was to reflect any of the objectives from the JNAP 2. 17 The Tonga Agricultural Sector Plan does not specify the geographical scope of the proposed interventions (Government of Tonga, World Bank, and IFAD, 2016b) 25 | P a g e 4.3 Communication The 2015 INDC refers to adaptation in various sections of the document. However, adaptation is not addressed systematically. Following the example of the JNAP2, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to provide an overview of the different phenomena related to climate change — including changes in temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea levels, ocean acidification, and the occurrence of tropical cyclones — and their impact on Tonga (Table 7). This overview should summarize what can be regarded as consensus in the existing literature, highlight areas of uncertainty, and indicate areas in need of future research. Table 7. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga Phenomenon Confidence Projections in existing literature Potential Impacts (direction of PACCSAP 2014 TNC 2019 change) Rise in Very high Increase in Increase in  Decreased yield and temperatures temperatures by surface air quality of crops up to 1.0°C by temperature by  Reduced fish catch 2030 and up to up to 0.7°C ± and increased 1.8-4.1°C by 2090 0.2°C by 2030, destruction of corals 2.6°C ± 0.3°C by 2090 (high  Increase in vector-, emissions) foodborne and waterborne diseases Increase in Low Little change in Increase of  Increase in flooding rainfall annual mean annual mean and damage to rainfall. rainfall by 2-3% infrastructure by 2030 under a  Decrease in high emissions agricultural scenario productivity High More extreme More extreme  Degradation of coral rain events rain events reefs as a result of pollution of coastal areas by sediments and debris  Increase in vector- and waterborne diseases Occurrence of Low Decrease slightly Little change is  Decrease in droughts in frequency of projected in the agricultural droughts incidence of productivity droughts  Reduced access to drinking water and reduced food security. Source: Compiled by GGGI 26 | P a g e Table 7. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga (continued) Phenomenon Confidence Projections in existing literature Potential Impacts (direction of PACCSAP 2014 TNC 2019 change) Rise in sea Very high Rise in sea levels Rise in mean  Land loss, including levels by 7–18 cm by sea levels by agricultural land 2030 and 41–88 7cm - 27cm by  Damage to cm by 2090 2030 and 11 - infrastructure and 51cm by 2055 property  Salinization of groundwater  Migration of population  Degradation of coral reefs Increase in Very high Aragonite Continue trend  Destruction of coral ocean saturation levels of acidification reefs acidification in the ocean will  Reduced catch of decrease to 3.5 calcifying Ωar by 2035 and invertebrates and continue to demersal fish decline after Decline in Medium Decrease in Decrease in  Decrease in frequency frequency of number but agricultural but increase cyclones of 6% to increase in productivity with in intensity of 35% intensity of severe damage to cyclones cyclones in the perennial tree crops Increase in mean southeast such as coconuts, maximum wind Pacific Ocean bananas, and speed of cyclones basin breadfruit of between 2%  Destruction of and 11% infrastructure  Damage of coral reefs  Increase in vector- and waterborne diseases Source: Compiled by GGGI 27 | P a g e 5. Recommendations This report reviewed and assessed Tonga’s 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions regarding the identified goals and targets, the proposed measures to achieve those targets, and the clarity and transparency of communicating the relevant information. Based on the results of this review process, recommendations were developed for the scope and content of the 2020 NDC (see Table 8 for a summary of the recommendations). First, following international best practice, to the extent possible, it is recommended that mitigation targets in the 2020 NDC are formulated in terms of GHG emission reductions. Second, it is recommended to follow the 2006 IPCC guidelines for reporting GHG emissions and selecting targets for reducing emissions. This will considerably enhance transparency and clarity. Third, it is recommended to keep the focus of mitigation targets on the energy sector. However, the 2015 INDC largely focused on reducing emissions from electricity generation. It is recommended to expand the scope for the 2020 NDC and includes targets for the transport as well as for commercial, institutional and residential end-use. Such targets could be based on the upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan. Furthermore, given that none of the existing targets for the AFOLU sectors is quantified in terms of emission reduction or emissions removal as well as the uncertainty of the extent of carbon sequestration, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify a non-emission target for the AFOLU sector. For that purpose, it is suggested to include the establishment of forest inventory to improve clarity and transparency for the sector. Based on data obtained through the forest inventory, it is recommended to include a GHG emissions target for the AFOLU sector in the 2025 NDC. Similarly, given the minimal amount of emissions from the industry and waste sectors, combined with the paucity of relevant data, it is recommended to not include emission targets for these two sectors in the 2020 NDC. It is suggested for these non-emission targets to focus on increasing clarity and transparency. In case of the waste sector, it is recommended to expand the formal waste collection system, including the collection of relevant data in order to define relevant GHG emissions targets for the 2025 NDC. In addition, for the 2020 NDC, in-country consultations recommended to consider Marine Protected Areas as a means for mitigation as well as a means for adaptation. Therefore, it is suggested to include a non-emission target for preserving Tonga’s marine biodiversity to function as a carbon sink, considering MPAs as a measure to achieve this target. In addition, Marine Protected Areas could be mentioned under adaptation as a means to support coastal protection and food security. However, either target will likely not be quantifiable, and — as a result — their achievement will be difficult to verify. Stakeholders suggested also considering Special Management Areas (SMAs). However, there is a need for clarification on the concept, definition and relationship between MPAs and SMAs (see Annex 4 to this report). Therefore, it is recommended to include only MPAs in the 2020 NDC. This would also provide consistency with the 2015 INDC. Fourth, the 2015 INDC generally omits to identify measures to achieve the proposed targets. However, identifying relevant means is crucial to establish realistic targets and to measure progress. It is suggested that once targets for the 2020 NDC have been identified to draw upon relevant measures from existing policies and plans for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. 28 | P a g e Fifth, the 2015 INDC’s clarity and transparency are undermined by a paucity of relevant data and an inability for third parties to re-calculate results based on publicly available data. Therefore, it is recommended to ensure the publication of relevant data and calculations to permit verification by third parties. This can be done either as part of the NDC or as part of the national communications to the UNFCCC. In particular, there is a high uncertainty regarding GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use. Therefore, it is suggested to recalculate figures for carbon sequestration. If recalculation is not possible as part of the 2020 NDC, it should be considered to exclude GHG emission data for the AFOLU sector from the document and highlight the existing uncertainty instead. Finally, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to clearly distinguish between mitigation and adaptation. For adaptation, it is suggested for the 2020 NDC to highlight that coping with the impact of an increase in temperature and a rise in sea level are priorities for Tonga. If specific targets for adaptation are to be identified as part of the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to select targets related to increasing temperatures and a rising sea levels. In this context, several targets identified by the Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management are regarded as relevant. However, if any of these targets were to be included in the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to define them more closely and/or make them quantifiable in order to be able to evaluate progress. In order to improve clarity and transparency, it is recommended for the adaptation section of the 2020 NDC to provide an overview of the different phenomena related to climate change and their impact on Tonga, summarizing what can be regarded as consensus in the existing literature, highlighting areas of uncertainty, and indicating areas in need of future research. Table 8. Summary of recommendations Category Recommendation Structure Have a clear structure of the NDC, distinguishing between mitigation and adaptation. The mitigation section should distinguish between the four main sectors identified by the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories as relevant sources for GHG emissions. Follow the 2006 IPCC guidelines for reporting GHG emissions and selecting targets for reducing emissions. This will considerably enhance transparency and clarity. Targets Following international best practice, to the extent possible, formulate mitigation targets in terms of GHG emission reductions. Keep the focus of mitigation targets on the energy sector but expand the scope beyond reducing emissions from electricity generation and include transport as well as for commercial, institutional, and residential end-use. Relevant targets for the transport sector as well as for commercial, institutional and residential end-use could be based on the upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan. Maintain the target of achieving 70% of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2030. Consider updating the target of achieving 50% of electricity generated from renewable sources from being achieved in 2020. Source: GGGI 29 | P a g e Table 8. Summary of recommendations (continued) Category Recommendation Targets Given that none of the existing targets for the AFOLU sectors is quantified in terms of emission reduction or emissions removal, include a non-emissions target in the 2020 NDC and include an emissions reduction target in a later iteration of the NDC. The non-emission target should include the establishment of Tonga’s national forest inventory as a means to enhance clarity and transparency. Given the minimal amount of emissions from the industry and waste sectors, combined with the paucity of relevant data, do not include any GHG emission targets for these two sectors in the 2020 NDC. Include the target of expanding the formal waste collection system in Tonga beyond Tongatapu, as a prerequisite for collecting relevant data and setting a quantifiable GHG emissions target during the next NDC cycle. Highlight that coping with the impact of an increase in temperature and a rise in sea level are priorities for Tonga. If specific targets for adaptation are to be identified as part of the 2020 NDC, select targets related to increasing temperatures and a rising sea levels. In this context, several targets identified by the Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management are regarded as relevant. However, if any of these targets were to be included in the 2020 NDC, define them more closely and/or make them quantifiable in order to be able to evaluate progress. Implementation Complement targets with relevant measures to achieve them. In many cases, relevant measures can be drawn from existing policies and plans, such as the Energy Efficiency Master Plan, the National Forest Policy, and the Forest Management Plan. Consider the expansion of Marine Protected Areas as a means for mitigation as well as a means for adaptation rather than a target in itself. In that context, include a non-emission target for preserving Tonga’s marine biodiversity to function as a carbon sink, considering MPAs as a measure to achieve this target. In addition, Marine Protected Areas could be mentioned under adaptation as a means to support coastal protection and food security. Communication Ensure the publication of relevant data and calculations to permit verification by third parties. This can be done either as part of the NDC or as part of the national communications to the UNFCCC. Recalculate figures for carbon sequestration. If recalculation is not possible as part of the 2020 NDC, consider excluding GHG emission data for the AFOLU sector and explain the uncertainty in the available data. In order to improve clarity and transparency, provide an overview of the different phenomena related to climate change and their impact on Tonga, summarizing what can be regarded as consensus in the existing literature, 30 | P a g e highlighting areas of uncertainty, and indicating areas in need of future research. Source: GGGI 31 | P a g e 6. References Department of Energy 2020. Installed off-grid renewable energy. Fransen, T., Northrop, E., Mogelgaard, K. & Levin, K. 2017. Enhancing NDCs by 2020: Achieving the Goals of the Paris Agreement. Working paper. Washington, DC. : World Resources Institute. Fransen, T., Sato, I., Levin, K., Waskow, D., Rich, D., Ndoko, S. & Teng, J. 2019. Enhancing NDCs by 2020: Achieving the Goals of the Paris Agreement. Washington, DC.: World Resources Institute. Government of Tonga 2012. Second National Communication. Government of Tonga 2015. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. Government of Tonga 2018. Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2018-2028. Government of Tonga 2019. Third National Communication on Climate Change Report. Government of Tonga, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, German Agency for International Development Cooperation & Secretariat of the Pacific Community 2009. National Forest Policy for Tonga. Government of Tonga & United Nation’s Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) 2020. Government of Tonga Energy Efficiency Master Plan, Unpublished. Government of Tonga, World Bank & International Fund for Agricultural Development 2016a. Tonga Agriculture Sector Plan 2016-2020. Government of Tonga, World Bank & International Fund for Agricultural Development 2016b. Tonga Fisheries Sector Plan 2016-2024. IPCC 2006a. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Japan, IGES. IPCC 2006b. IPCC Waste Model. IPCC 2019. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Calvo Buendia, E., Tanabe, K., Kranjc, A., Baasansuren, J., Fukuda, M., Ngarize, S., Osako, A., Pyrozhenko, Y., Shermanau, P. and Federici, S. (eds). Publish . Ministry of Agriculture Food Forestry and Fisheries 2017. Management Plan for the Forests and Tree Resources of Tonga. Tonga Power Limited (TPL) 2016. Tonga Power Limited Annual Report 2016. Tonga Power Limited (TPL) 2017. Tonga Power Limited Annual Report 2017. Tonga Power Limited (TPL) 2020a. Losses and Consumption Data 2015-2020. Internal Document. Tonga Power Limited (TPL) 2020b. TPL Generation Data. Internal Document. Tonga Power Limited (TPL) 2020c. TPL Installed and Planned Generation Capacity. Internal Document. Tonga Statistics Department 2017. Tonga 2016 Census of Population and Housing. Volume 1: Basic Tables and Administrative Report. UNEP-Wcmc 2020. Profile for Tonga. UNFCCC 2009. Fact sheet: The need for mitigation. UNFCCC 2015. Paris Agreement. World Bank 2019. Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters). Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 32 | P a g e 7. Annex A1. Interview Notes A1.1 Department of Climate Change, Greenhouse gas inventory working group Context Key points GHG from Estimates are based on figures from oil companies. Sales figures from oil burning fossil companies differ from imports/consumption data from Statistics fuels Department. Diesel Sales data from oil companies to different consumers used to estimate breakdown between road transport and maritime transport (also relevant for gasoline). However, records are not always clear to make distinction. Fuel oil deliveries are not clearly distinguished in report, but all fuel oil deliveries counted towards maritime transport, as newer domestic ferries run on diesel. Data (energy) Approach followed for national communication: figures collected from shipping and aviation companies and authorities Willingness of oil companies to share data is limited as data regarded as commercially sensitive. Stock changes had to be estimated. Situation should improve once energy yearbook is available in 2021. Marine bunkers Data on deliveries to marine bunkers is difficult to obtain as some oil directly sold to vessels. Targets (energy) Target for electricity losses has been achieved. Renewable energy targets on track. Generation target has never been an official policy. Goals and targets for energy efficiency will be determined based on general direction provided by Energy Efficiency Master Plan. Key sector for energy efficiency measures is transport, particularly road transport (followed by maritime transport, with very limited contribution from aviation), and to a lesser extent residential sector. Lack of data as a hindrance to determine relevant targets and measures. GHG from Formal figures for only one logging company/forest plantation in ‘Eua. forestry Estimates for harvesting of trees for fuelwood, based on samples. Basing estimate on Department of Statistics expenditure survey would only capture fuelwood that is sold commercially. Particularly in outer islands, fuelwood represents the main source of energy. 33 | P a g e Estimate for CO2 sequestration of forests is likely too high in 2015 INDC, as figures for forest cover were probably too high. Using data from the National Forest Policy regarded as a good option. Age of trees is considered as low, due to considerable replanting in recent years and cultivation of fast-growing trees for fuel wood harvesting. This would have an impact when using IPCC default emission factors. GHG from Conversion of land for agriculture as the main contributor, including agriculture slashing and burning of forests, ploughing, agrichemicals, etc. Livestock not considered currently, but useful to capture in the future. Data (agriculture Need to improve data. and forestry) Need for capacity building for data collection and analysis of forestry data. Current capacity within the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forestry considered as limited. FAO forestry inventory scheduled to be concluded by 2021, by a Japanese consultant. Goals and Proposed goal of planting one million trees has to be put into context. targets Setting a single number is too simplistic. Tonga National Agriculture Sector Plan might include more practical goals. A1.2 MEIDECC, Department of Energy Context Key points Electricity Main concern in Energy sector has shifted from access to electricity (100% access likely to be achieved by end 2021) to affordability (which will remain a concern for the near future) and will shift to acceptability of generation source in the future, with the necessity to move away from fossil fuels to renewables Access to Access is defined broadly; anyone who is connected to main grids, mini- electricity grids, or home systems being counted. Essential services include: lighting, refrigeration, an water pumping Renewables Prior to 2015: none targets 2015-2020: 14-17% of electricity generation from renewable sources 2020/25: on track to achieve 50% of electricity generation from renewable sources 2030: political target to achieve 70% 2035: political target to achieve 100% Conditional on: 34 | P a g e 1. Tonga government: providing enabling environment (policy and regulation) 2. Donors providing funding for hardware Solar capacity Current: about 4.2 MW in Tongatapu, 400 kW in Vava’u, 500 kW in Ha’apai, and 200 kW in ‘Eua. Wind capacity Current: 1.3 MW in Tongatapu, 11 kW in Nakolo, 11 kW in Ha’apai By end 2020: 2.1 MW Future capacity additions: 3.6 MW 6 MW at western site 6 MW at eastern site Energy efficiency Energy Efficiency Master Plan to be finalized by end-March Legislation Energy bill as umbrella for all energy-related acts, including electricity, petroleum, pricing, renewable energy, etc. Coordination of all acts and update of all acts accordingly IPP Companies from China, France and New Zealand Transport Electric vehicles: main concern about costs Efficiency of roads/infrastructure Ministry of Infrastructure expected to provide recommendation on vehicle efficiency. Vehicle efficiency testing through technical verification agency required. Transmission From 18% in 2011 to under 11%, as a result of grid improvements and distribution losses 35 | P a g e A1.3 Department of Environment Context Key points Forest data If forest data in 2009 National Forest Policy came from Department of Environment, it would have been as part of the communication to CBD (part of the mandatory reporting as part of multilateral environmental agreements). The specific report in question is the 5th National Forestry Report.18 However, the data in the report comes from the Department of Forestry. Forest targets Relevant targets are formulated as part of the 5th National Forestry Report, referring to forest cover and mangroves, among others. The 2020 NDC could refer to these existing targets. Marine Protected Marine Protected Areas were included in the 2015 INDC as part of Areas mitigation, because they were regarded as a means to maintain/increase the absorption of carbon by sea organisms. However, there is no system or methodology to measure the impact of establishing Marine Protected Areas on carbon sequestration.19 The 2015 INDC included the general goal of increasing the number of Marine Protected Areas. However, among the guidelines to establish Marine Protected Areas, the size of the area is one criterium. The current target is for 30% of Tonga’s exclusive economic zone to be covered by Marine Protected Areas, included in the Marine Spatial Plan. The plan itself is currently being drafted, but materials informing the plan are available. Adaptation Adaptation, as part of the 2020 NDC, should include measurable and realistic goals and targets. Targets have to be measurable and realistic as a prerequisite for funding and implementation. JNAP2 and the National Environmental Management Strategy (being drafted) are sources that could inform adaptation as part of the 2020 NDC. The State of the Environment Report could help to capture evaluate current development and identify gaps and barriers (e.g. terrestrial protected areas). Waste Department of Environment collects waste data from Waste Authority Ltd. Currently, no distinction between waste streams. However, there is an aim to collect waste information distinguishing between different categories of waste. No collection of data on methane emissions from landfill. Specific measure to be implemented concerns phase-out of single-use plastics. 18 GGGI was not able to obtain the 5th National Forestry Report. 19 In a follow up discussion, the Department of Environment suggested that the target of doubling the number of marine protected areas should be regarded as a means to strengthen adaptation. 36 | P a g e A1.4 Tonga Bureau of Statistics Context Key points Biomass Information on consumption in “household income and expenditure survey” (2015) LPG Information on consumption in “household income and expenditure survey” (2015) Oil products Information on imports (quarterly) in “foreign trade report”, based on customs data. Note: “Re-export” refers to international marine bunkers. No data on consumption. Transport No data beyond census and household survey. No data on passenger and freight kilometers. Ask for vehicle registry data from the Ministry of Infrastructure. Waste No data beyond census and household survey. No data on amounts and waste composition. Ask waste authority. Labour Labour force survey (2018) Data gathering Census in 2021. Currently collecting input on design and content Generally, data gathering through census in order to gain an overview. Detailed data can be gathered through specific survey, covering specific topic. Data shared between ministries/departments once agreement on what data is shared, for what purpose and with whom. Arrangements are made based on Statistical Act with other line ministries (letter from CEO). Follow up Questions from Bureau of Statistics: Specific data collected as part of the preparation of Fiji LEDS? Answer from GGGI: Nothing specifically collected due to budget and time constraints. 37 | P a g e A1.5 Department of Transport, Ministry of Infrastructure, Land Transport Division Context Key points Infrastructure Considering the impacts of climate change during the planning and design process Upgrading and maintaining roads as a key activity Data Check national infrastructure investment plan (2013-2023) Can share data on fuel consumption, vehicle registry, and traffic count (Tongatapu) Contacts for buildings control, maritime transport and aviation to set up interviews Goals and No vehicle standards measures No consideration of fuel switching or alternative technologies Transport modes Preference for car over motorbike, cycling, walking Lack of infrastructure for non-motorised transport A1.6 Department of Transport, Ministry of Infrastructure, Maritime Transport Division Context Key points Data Collecting data of fuel sales to domestic shipping for registered vessels (>8 meters). No data for smaller vessels that would often get gasoline/diesel directly from gas stations. Data on number of port calls by vessel. No data on passenger and freight numbers, only weight estimates when vessels cross load line. No projections on fuel consumption. Maybe collected by shipping companies. Diesel/fuel oil There are no domestic vessels using high sulphur fuel oil (HFO). HFO only used for international marine bunkers. Goals and Negations at IMO on GHG emissions from vessels. Tonga would need to targets adhere to any agreements achieved there. Contribution of domestic shipping to GHG emissions considered as insignificant, particularly on a global level. Energy Efficiency aster Plan focused on land transport, as major share of GHG emissions from land transport in Tonga. Any regulation on engine or fuel standards would likely impose an additional cost on vessel owners, 38 | P a g e who often can barely afford to pay the fuel. Also, it is unclear whether higher standards fuel can be used in existing engines. No impact on domestic shipping from IMO regulation on sulphur content. A1.7 Civil Aviation Division Context Key points Data on fuel No systematic collection of fuel consumption data in aviation under consumption Transport by the Civil Aviation Division. Information is requested from operators and Pacific Energy (which is responsible for fuel deliveries to aviation). As part of Tonga’s requirement as a member of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the Civil Aviation Division will start to collect data on fuel consumption for international flights, starting from the second half of 2020. Data is expected to be published in 2021. Ad-hoc request to operators is possible, if it is specified what data is needed and for which purpose. Passenger and No systematic collection of passenger and freight data in aviation u by freight data the Civil Aviation Division. Civil Aviation Division can request data on passenger numbers from operators. Similar request can be made for freight data, but uncertain whether operators collect that data. Freight transport via aviation in Tonga is limited. Freight is rather transported via maritime transport. Domestic planes are small and mostly serve for passenger travel. There are no dedicated cargo planes. Targets for GHG Establishing targets to reduce fuel consumption/GHG emissions from emissions aviation was regarded as unrealistic, due to the lack of alternative fuels and technologies. Alternative fuels are currently not commercially viable. Introducing stricter engine standards would come at considerable costs for operators as airplanes would need to be replaced. 39 | P a g e A1.8 Department of Forestry Context Key points Data No reliable data for forestry, no forest inventory in Tonga. Work on forest inventory to commence in 2020 with support of FAO 2009 National Forest Policy uses data from the Department of Environment. Recommended to contact Department of Environment about the origin of this data. Also recommended to consult 2017 Forest Management Plan Land area used for agriculture: annual crop survey + recheck census Estimates Difference between FAO estimate (9,000 ha) and National Forest Policy (68,000ha) as a result of different definition for forests GHG targets Limited land area in Tonga: Conflict between food security/income and need to clear land for agriculture vs reducing emissions Forestry Makes sense to have targets for forestry, but not for Tonga where no forest harvesting and forests are generally small on a global scale 2019 Corporate Plan of Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forests (MAFF CP) envisions planting of 1 million trees Agriculture Reducing land need (emissions from agriculture) requires considering most suitable crops/change in crops/viable alternatives with price and sustainability as two important determinants Agroforestry, intercropping of crops and trees, and mixed cropping as important measures to reduce the impact of climate change, droughts, pests and diseases, but dependent on funding Need for more efficient land use 40 | P a g e A1.9 Ministry of Revenue and Customs Context Key points Petroleum data Data collected by customs and shared with the Department of Statistics. Gaps in publicly availably foreign trade report (Department of Statistics) are likely the result of outage of automated customs system. In case of an outage, the system is updated manually afterwards, but statistics reports might not reflect those updates. Customs data can be shared and includes concession codes (tax exemption based on use) that allow for some distinction between product use. Oil supply chain While direct shipments from Singapore were under discussion a few years ago, they never materialized. Subsidies Subsidies entail the removal of excise tax and for some products/use consumption tax. Excise tax amounts to 65 cents per litre for all petroleum products, except lubricants. Weekly/monthly reports on subsidies contain details on concessions, such as amounts and categories of use that they apply to. These reports can be shared. Vehicle data Customs collects data on vehicle imports. Excise tax is based on engine size, which would allow to distinguish between vehicle categories. This data can be shared. 41 | P a g e A1.10 Tonga Power Limited Context Key points Renewable energy Achieving 50% electricity generation from renewable sources as the main challenge, to be achieved by wind, solar and battery, with 10 major projects over the next two years (53.2 million USD) Implications on network/change to the network, even more so for achieving 70% by 2030 and 100% by 2035 Options to diversify renewable energy options: currently solar and wind, with the need for battery storage to possibly waste/biomass, tidal/wave in the future Implications on costs/electricity tariffs Demand Growing demand: TPL projects 2.5-2.7% year-on-year demand growth for 2020-2025, driven by construction of commercial and residential buildings Data Able to provide load curves, installed capacity, losses Check Pacific Power Association for benchmarking World Bank (2016) study on resilience/adaptation in Energy sector Request overview for planned capacity additions Metering Ongoing with focus on Tongatapu where 85-90% coverage achieved Losses Loss reductions as a result of significant improvements in network infrastructure (technical losses) and the introduction of meters (non- technical losses) Off-grid Outside of TPL responsibility Goals and targets Goals and targets set by government, with TPL focusing on implementation and providing feedback on technical feasibility (impact on grid and security of supply) Financing and Funding to build infrastructure to achieve targets mostly from outside costs TPL 2015-2020, grand funding for solar and wind as well as technical assistance, but increasingly private investment under power purchase agreements Drive towards private sector investment, with support from financing institutions If diesel prices drop considerably (March 2020), then solar/windless competitive. However, (1) low prices are considered to be a short-term phenomenon and (2) willingness for a temporary premium to be paid to achieve emission reductions. 42 | P a g e Wind First system installed in July 2019 by Japan Providing baseload, particularly at night. Output changes much more gradual than solar, as a result, easier to operate (but only 7 months of data) Upfront costs for wind even higher than solar Solar Tongatapu: baseload, with diesel for meeting peak demand Ha‘apai: solar and battery storage cover entire demand during daytime Cloud cover as the main challenge, requiring diesel backup. Modern diesel generator fleet, but use for backup generations reduces efficiency as generators are run on lower frequencies Solar for main grids is cost-competitive with diesel, as evidenced by private sector investment. For off-grid systems, diesel is cheaper Upfront costs as a challenge. Grant-funded upfront costs not passed on to consumers Battery Two facilities in 2020 12-years life expectancy for batteries (at current cost of 30 million USD), impossible for TPL to fund replacement of components Options other than battery considered, but currently not economically viable Biomass/waste Biomass and waste regarded as options to replace firm capacity diesel Adaptation 1. Hardening of infrastructure with project specifications and design of generation infrastructure to withstand cyclones + network upgrades to improve resilience 2. Rebuilding, with more flexible designs to re-establish power faster, instead of building infrastructure that can withstand all phenomena Rooftop solar Currently 30 systems, mainly as trials Regarded as an option for (1) reducing investment burden on TPL, as consumers pay for infrastructure, and (2) demand-side management Assessment of impact on-grid and requirement to upgrade grid TPL involved in system design, TPL permission required to connect systems to network Missing policies and incentives to encourage installation/investment. For example, unclear whether or not import fees and taxes are imposed on equipment. Currently, no policy/regulation but decision is project- based Energy TPL heavily involved. Examples include street lighting (LED), distribution efficiency/demand- of light bulbs to consumers (15,000), energy auditing and training, side management 43 | P a g e development of standards, studies on consumer behaviour in cooperation with universities A1.11 Tonga Waste Authority Limited Context Key points Data Only total amounts in cubic meters, based on collection vehicles No data on composition, but high amount of plastic Can share annual plan/business plan for projections Can share data for total amounts Recycling The entirety of the collected waste goes to the landfill, no recycling Waste collection Practice of burning waste has reduced, due to regulation (fine) and collection system in place. Fixed fee for households and commercial users provides incentives to use the system. A system established in Tongatapu and Vava’u, to be established in Ha’apai and ‘Eua in 2020. Further expansion to other islands required in the future. Willingness to pay is an issue in some areas, but regulation/fines has been helpful in enforcement Targets and Target to reduce waste/increase recycling, but need for equipment and measures funding Limited financial capacity of waste authority. Improvement in infrastructure requires improvement in financial situation for necessary investments. Currently dependent on donor funding. Fees are barely sufficient to cover operational costs, but not investments. Considering waste to energy as an option, but capacity and resources to assess viability are limited A1.12 Real Tonga Airline Context Key points Data Collect data on fuel consumption for domestic flights. Collect data for domestic passenger numbers and distance travelled. Data can be shared pending approval from company CEO. No data on international flights. 44 | P a g e Goals and Setting emission reduction targets for aviation is not regarded as realistic targets for two reasons: (1) there are no alternative fuels and (2) costs would be too high. A1.13 Pacific Energy Context Key points Petroleum Diesel reflects Approximately 40% of total product sales. Half of the diesel consumption is used for road transport, 40% for power generation, and 10% for marine bunkering (ferries, fishing, international). No reduction in diesel sales observed for electricity generation, despite increased deployment of renewables. Data Suggestion to use customs data as company data is confidential. Policy The only major change over the last 10 years is the tightening of fuel specifications, in particular regarding lower thresholds for Sulphur content. A1.14 Total Context Key points Petroleum End-use of diesel sales (from Total) can be roughly broken down as consumption follows: 60% for electricity generation, 30% for road transport, 10% for shipping Data Sales data is confidential. Suggestion to rely on customs data. 45 | P a g e A2. List of interview participants and contact information Name Title Affiliation Email 1 Mr. Taniela Independent National Greenhouse gas inventory working group th.hoponoa@gmail.com Hoponoa Consultant 2 Mr. ‘Ofa Sefana Energy Planning Specialist Greenhouse gas inventory working group ofasefana@yahoo.com 3 Mr. Heimuli Head of Forestry Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forests, hlikiafu@yahoo.com Likiafu Department Department of Forestry 4 Ms. Hepi Oko Road Officer Ministry of Infrastructure, Department of hepioko@gmail.com Transport, Land Transport Division 5 Mr. Hemaloto Marine Port Officer Ministry of Infrastructure, Department of likewater83@gmail.com Tupou Transport, Maritime Transport Division 6 Ms. Lilu Moala Principal Assistant Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, lilumoala@gmail.com Secretary Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications. Department of Climate Change 7 Ms. ‘Akesiu Assistant Secretary Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, akesiuleua@gmail.com Meimoana Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Leua Change and Communications. Department of Climate Change 8 Dr. Tevita Director for Energy Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, ttukunga@gmail.com Tukunga Department Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications. Department of Energy 9 Mr. Sione Principal Energy Planner, Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, sl_tausinga@yahoo.com Tausinga On-grid Wind Power and Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Renewable Energy Change and Communications. Department of Energy 10 Mr. ‘Eliate Energy Planner, Renewable Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, tuhamoelotu@gmail.com Laulaupea'alu Energy Division Disaster Management, Environment, Climate 46 | P a g e Change and Communications. Department of Energy 11 Ms. ‘Atelaite Director for Department of Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, lupe.matoto@gmail.com Lupe Matoto Environment Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications. Department of Energy. Department of Environment 12 Ms. Sandra Senior Secretary Ministry of Trade and Economic Development/ sandraf@mted.gov.to Fifita Tonga Competent Authority 13 Mr. Samisoni General Statistician Tonga Statistics Department. Statistical Advice sfotu@stats.gov.to Fotu and Capacity Assistances 14 Mr. Masiva’ilo Principal Statistician Tonga Statistics Department. Real Sector mmasila@stats.gov.to Masila Economic Statistics 15 Ms. Telekaki Poverty Statistician Tonga Statistics Department. Poverty Statistics tlatavao@stats.gov.to Latavao 16 Mr. Nikolasi Engineer Manager Tonga Power Limited nfonua@tongapower.to Fonua 17 Mr. Viliami Engineering Officer Tonga Power Limited vpalaki@tongapower.to Palaki 18 Mr. Seti Chan Chief Executive Officer Tonga Power Limited 20 Ms. Lola Liava’a Manager Administration & Tong Waste Authority Limited lola.liavaa.tonga@gmail.com Tonga Special Projects 21 Ms. ‘Eleni Tu’i Senior Program Ministry of Internal Affairs kilikilitefua@gmail.com Officer/Gender Mainstream 22 Ms. Ane Tavo Legal Officer Ministry of Internal Affairs avotay@hotmail.com 23 Ms. Saane Lolo Chief Economist Ministry of Finance slolo@finance.gov.to 24 Ms. Lupe Acting Head of National Prime Minister’s Office, National Planning ltfeiloaki@gmail.com Fe’iloaki Planning Division Division 25 Ms. Ma’ata Senior Economist Prime Minister’s Office, National Planning slolo@finance.gov.to Mafi Division 47 | P a g e 26 Mr. Manaia Head of Corporate Division Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Forests and mhalafihi@gmail.com Halafihi Fisheries 27 Mr. Peni Senior Aviation Officer Ministry of Infrastructure, Civil Aviation Division pltaimani@gmail.com Taimani 28 Mr. Michael Deputy Chief Executive Customs and Trade Division, Ministry of Revenue michaelc@customs.gov.to Cokanasiga Officer and Customs 29 Mr. Ifalemi Terminal Manager Pacific Energy ifalemi.tauheluhelumau@p.ene Ma'u rgy 30 Mr. Jese Manager – Tonga Total jese.tikomailepanoni@total.com Tikomailepano ni 31 Mr ‘Amanaki Secretary Real Tonga Airlines amanaki.paea@paluaviation.to Paea 48 | P a g e A3. Barriers and opportunities for achieving the 2020 NDC targets The information below was collected from stakeholders at two workshops on the 30th and 31st of July 2020. The stakeholders represented participants from the energy, IPPU, AFOLU, waste and adaptation sectors and cross-cutting areas such as finance, planning, local government and gender. The questions asked to stakeholder during the workshop were:  How can the suggested 2020 NDC targets be achieved in Tonga?  What are the barriers and opportunities?  What enabling actions need to be taken? Barriers Opportunities Enabling Actions Adaptation Lack of enforcement of Marine spatial planning to Introduce and Enforce MPAs and SMAs so this better manage our ocean Marine Spatial Planning needs strengthening (MSP) Act No regulation specific under Strengthen and develop Funding and resources Parks & Reserves skills in ocean management concerning the MPA and and monitoring SMA Lack of awareness Cooperation between all Technical assistance e.g. to stakeholders strengthen marine monitoring teams Conflict of users (private Closely collaborate between Specifically distinguish sector) agriculture, transport, between MPAs and SMAs waste, water to understand each other's targets and be involved in each other’s planning and budget processes Political and institutional Use existing resources and Conduct a quarterly, threats activities e.g. MPAs biannual or annual monitoring and evaluation for all NDC sectors implementing the targets Lack of funding, resources To achieve the and activities to implement Collaboration with all the targets. institutions - Understand the NDC targets 49 | P a g e Barriers Opportunities Enabling Actions - Incorporation of the targets to the corporate plans - Incorporation of targets to the government budget Gaps need to be identified early so that it can be addressed early rather than being identified in the review. AFOLU Not enough budget Include NDC goals in Improve awareness allocated Ministry corporate plans Lack of funding NDC targets should be Improve communication included in the National and collaboration at a high Development Plan level including within Ministries and with other stakeholders NDC targets not included in Make NDC goals a priority Commitment to data and ministries plans and for Ministries survey and maintaining strategies data system Lack of expertise To update or establish an Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Census Review the Tonga Agriculture Sector Plan and Forestry Policy Allocate national budget to achieve the targets Waste Lack of capacity A centralized database Technical support should be in place to prevent duplication of works Lack of data and Improve the consistency of Waste composition survey consistency of data data 50 | P a g e Barriers Opportunities Enabling Actions Limited availability of data Construct a Weighbridge in and it is scattered across landfills and Waste Facilities sectors Duplication of efforts Capacity building Landfill upgrade Energy Impacts of Climate Change Opportunity to conduct Carry out more high-level for example occurrence of high-level consultation for consultations and intensive events such as decision-makers. awareness-raising so Tropical Cyclones has decision-makers know the affected the challenges. implementation of RE projects resulting in delays in implementation. Cyclones have affected the Opportunity to make Better align national and RE equipment. alignment of different sectoral policies and plans policies and national plans towards the same goals for future purposes and avoid contradictions Novelty of projects, Tax and tariffs are focused Remove concessions on different project requiring on some goods while others fuels different procedure with are neglected thus need of different donor demands fair and evenly tax and procedures imposition The availability of land is an Through targets can enable issue for new upcoming RE aid in achieving the targets projects through such as Tax exemption on certain goods Lack of funding and Opportunity to get the capacities. private sector more involved Lack of in-country capacities in some specific areas which are needed for renewable energy projects and cannot fly-in specialists due to covid-19. This has caused delays Political issues are one of the challenges. Elections in 51 | P a g e Barriers Opportunities Enabling Actions 2021, changing the government priorities thus affecting the targets progress. Lack of aligning policies and national reports in Tonga 52 | P a g e A4. Marine Protected Areas and Special Management Areas There are two major strategies for Marine Managed Areas in Tonga. These are: 1. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs); and 2. Special Management Areas (SMAs). Both strategies are managed by Government of which MPAs are managed under the Ministry of MEIDECC (Department of Environment) and SMAs under the Department of Fisheries. MPAs are areas of marine protection that are remote from communities, where community management is not possible, and are managed exclusively by the government. MPAs are labelled as 'parks' or 'reserves' designated under the Parks and Reserves Act 1979 (Rev. 1988) and are exclusively 'no-take zones'. SMAs are areas of marine protection that are located near island communities where they can be locally managed under government supervision of the Department of Fisheries (DoF). All SMAs are designated under the Fisheries Management Act 2003 and are 'multi- use' zones. The above-stated government ministries (MEIDECC and DoF) are also responsible for the monitoring of MPAs and SMAs. MPAs SMAs Regulation for Exclusive 'no-take' area - non- 'Multiple-use' area - fishing in human usage extractive activities (snorkeling, designated zones only diving, etc.) only. Area location Remote areas – areas remote from Areas adjacent to local communities communities Management Government-managed by Ministry Locally managed by island Strategy of MEIDECC (Department of communities under the Environment) Department of Fisheries Legislation Parks and Reserves Act, 1979 Fisheries Management Act, Fisheries Management Act, 2003 2003 (Rev. 1988) Fines <TOP $500 & imprisonment <3 < TOP $50,000 months At the NDC review and recommendation validation workshops, the point was raised with regard to whether both MPAs and SMAs should be included in the 2020 NDC. This lead to discussions of some points which need to be decided first before making further decisions on how MPAs and SMAs are included into the future NDCs. At the validation workshops, it was recommended that there is a need to clarify definition of MPAs and SMAs, including that MPAs are all no-take zones and SMAs also in some cases include no-take zones so there are overlaps. The concept of MPA and SMA having a no- take policy is their similar characteristic that warrants them to be categorized together. There was a suggestion to use Marine Managed Areas to house both the MPA and SMA. However, the MPA is a global definition recognized by the Convention for Biological Diversity while the SMA is a national term dictated by Tonga and MMA is a regional term. To house the MPA & SMA under MMA was thus not regarded as ideal and stakeholders agreed there is a need for further discussion between the Department of Environment and the Ministry of Fisheries regarding this issue. 53 | P a g e Contact Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communication (MEIDECC) Level 3 O.G Sanft Building, Taufa'ahau Road, Nuku'alofa, TONGA Tele: (676) 20-100 or 26-514 www.climatechange.gov.to