Somalia Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF)

01. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

02. The Somalia Recovery and Resilience Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 .1 . RRF Vision, Strategic Objectives and Guiding Principles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 .2 . Alignment with Existing Policies and Strategies in Somalia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2 .3 . The Four Components of the RRF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

03. Prioritization and Phasing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3 .1 . The Prioritization and Phasing Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3 .2 . Prioritization Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3 .3 . National-Level Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 3.4. Further refining high priority sector interventions and national level priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

04. Financing Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 4 .1 . Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 4 .2 . Financing Depends on Value for Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4 .3 . The RRF Financing Framework Builds upon Existing Systems and Seeks Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4 .4 . The Scope of the Financing Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 4 .5 . A Learning and Capacity Development Approach to the Financing Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

05. Learning, Monitoring and Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 5 .1 . Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 5 .2 . The Principles of the M&E Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 5.3. The Cascading Workflow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 5 .4 . Focus on Monitoring, Cascading and a Contribution-Based Approach . . . . . . 28 III SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

06. Institutional Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 6 .1 . Building on Existing Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 6 .2 . Operationalizing the RRF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 6 .3 . Roles and Responsibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 6 .4 . Cost of operationalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

07. Next Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 7 .1 . Prioritization and Phasing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 7 .2 . Financing Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 7 .3 . M&E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 7 .4 . Institutional Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Annex 1: Alignment of Prioritization Indicators and RRF Strategic Objectives . . . . . . . . 45 Annex 2: Special Note on Aid Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Annex 3: Draft RRF Results Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 List of Figures Figure 1: High Priorities per FMS, According to Monetary Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Xiii Figure 2: Schematic of the RRF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 3: Outcome Based Indicators and Average Weights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 4: Distribution of Interventions into Priority Categories by State . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 5: RRF Financing Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Figure 6: Cascading Operationalization of the Proposed Programmatic M&E Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Figure 7: Schematic Representation of Somalia’s Current Aid Coordination Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 List of Tables Table 1: Outcome of the Prioritization Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Xii Table 2: Number of Interventions by Priority and High Priority Investment Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Table 3: FMS High Priority Investments by Sector Intervention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Table 4: Investment Phasing of High Priority Interventions (USD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Table 5: Investment Phasing of High Priority Interventions (USD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Table 6: RRF Strategic and Intermediate Outcomes and Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 IV L IST O F ABB R E V I AT I O N S A N D ACRO NY M S ACU Aid Coordination Unit AfDB African Development Bank AfDB SIF African Development Bank Somali Infrastructure Fund AIF African Investment Facility AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AWD Acute Watery Diarrhea BRA Benadir Regional Administration CRESTA/A Community Recovery and Extension of State Authority and Accountability CRRF Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework DFI Development Finance Institution DINA Drought Impact and Needs Assessment DRM Disaster Risk Management DSI Durable Solutions Initiative EU European Union FGS Federal Government of Somalia FMS Federal Member States F2F Funding to Finance GDP Gross Domestic Product GIF World Bank Global Infrastructure Facility HRP Humanitarian Response Plan IDP Internally Displaced Person INGO International Non-Governmental Organization ISFM Integrated Soil Fertility Management JMT Joint Monitoring Team V SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDA Ministries, Departments and Agencies MFD Maximizing Financing for Development MoPIED Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development NDC National Development Council NDP National Development Plan NGO Non-governmental Organization NWOW New Ways of Working OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs ODA Official Development Assistance PHC Primary Health Care PIDG Private Infrastructure Development Group PIM Public Investment Management PPIAF Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility PPP Public–private partnership PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PWG Pillar Working Group RMS Results Monitoring System RRF Recovery and Resilience Framework SDG Sustainable Development Goals SDRF Somalia Development and Reconstruction Facility SDRF SC SDRF Steering Committee SFMIS Somalia Financial Management Information System SGBV Sexual and Gender Based Violence SO Strategic Objective SPF Somalia Partnership Forum TSA Treasury Single Account UN United Nations UN MPTF United Nations Multi Partner Trust Fund USD United States Dollar WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene WB World Bank WB MPF World Bank Multi Partner Fund VI ACK NOWL E DGE M EN T S T he Recovery and Resilience Framework The European Union under the ACP-EU Natural (RRF) is a product of concerted effort led Disaster Risk Reduction program, implemented by the Federal Government of Somalia’s by the WB-led Global Facility for Disaster Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Reduction and Recovery, have produced finan- Development in partnership with the Ministry of cial support for the framework . Ipsos provided Humanitarian Affairs & Disaster Management, remote sensing and survey support, and Courage the Federal Member States and the Benadir Services, Inc . provided remote sensing services . Regional Administration . It was undertaken with strategic support from the World Bank Group, Teams of insightful contributors, collaborators, the United Nations, and the European Union, and coordinators have united efforts to pro- within the framework of the 2008 Joint EU-UN- duce this framework—and are duly acknowl- WB Declaration on Post-Crisis Assessments and edged with many thanks . Importantly, the hope, Recovery Planning . resilience, and inspiration of the good people of Somalia provide the motivation behind the for- mulation of this framework VII N OTE TO T H E R EA D ER T he Recovery and Resilience Framework 2017–2019 National Development Plan (NDP) . It (RRF) supports Somalia’s progress from follows that Government and development part- early drought recovery through to lon- ner programming conducted within the RRF is ger-term resilience and disaster preparedness, expected both to build on ongoing humanitarian and is intended to enable the country to break action, and to contribute towards the achieve- the cycle of vulnerability and humanitarian cri- ment of national development priorities . sis to which it has been subject in the past . The RRF is not a funding appeal . It is a framework to It may also be noted that the RRF is an evolving enable and inform future financing for recovery process rather than solely a published document . and resilience, and to set Somalia on a trajectory The report presented herein is the result of con- towards the achievement of the Sustainable sultations between the Government of Somalia Development Goals (SDGs) . and its development partners, conducted dur- ing the first half of 2018. Consultations will con- In this regard, the RRF is intended to align strongly tinue as the RRF is put into place and rolled out . with Somalia’s existing humanitarian and devel- Based on these consultations, the substance of opment planning frameworks, namely the 2018 the RRF and its relationship with other national Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) and the planning processes will be refined over time. VIII Ex ECUTIVE SU M M A RY F our consecutive inadequate rainy seasons according to a recent USAID study4, building in 2016 and 2017 left Somalia with over half resilience in Somalia would save an average of of the population in need of assistance1, US$53 million per year in humanitarian assis- more than one million newly displaced people tance, while investing in early response and and emergency-level malnutrition rates2 . The resilience measures yields average benefits of efforts of the Somali authorities and the inter- US$2 .8 for every US$1 invested . national community—which provided nearly $1 .3 billion—averted famine . In August 2017, Translating the DINA findings into action, the the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) ini- Government of Somalia has now developed a tiated a joint exercise to assess the losses Resilience and Recovery Framework (RRF), pre- and damages arising from the drought and sented in this report . Over a 3–5-year time- to develop a strategy for immediate recovery frame, the RRF will support Somalia’s progress and longer-term resilience building . The result from early drought recovery through to longer- was the Somalia Drought Impact and Needs term resilience and disaster preparedness . It Assessment (DINA)—a comprehensive effort establishes a collective vision and strategy for that mobilized over 180 national and interna- enabling recovery and resilience building and tional experts—to assess and quantify drought breaking out of the cycle of vulnerability and recovery and resilience building needs across humanitarian crises . Using evidence-based 18 sectors . analysis and a bottom-up consensus build- ing methodology, it identifies recovery and Completed in January 2018, the DINA found resilience building priorities and proposes a there had been over US$3 billion, or 50 % of financing approach and institutional arrange- annual GDP, in damages or losses due to the ments by which these can be acted on by drought . Multi-sectoral recovery and resilience the Government of Somalia and its interna- building needs were estimated at nearly US$1 .8 tional partners . In doing so, the RRF supports billion . In comparison, some US$5 .4 billion has national efforts to strengthen resilience to been spent on life-saving emergency responses recurrent disasters, respond to climate change since the 2011 famine, when an estimated quar- and increase disaster management and crisis ter of a million people died3 . In this regard, response capacity . 1 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan . 2 OCHA Somalia Flash Update #5 - Humanitarian impact of heavy rains | 15 May 2018 3 Mortality study commissioned by FAO/FSNAU and FEWS NET (2013) 4 USAID Economics of Resilience to Drought: Somalia Analysis Ix SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK opment (MoPIED), 5 Federal Member States OUTCOME OF THE PRIORITIZATION PROCESS, SHOWING TABLE 1 AGGREGATED TOTALS OF FEDERAL MEMBER STATE HIGH (FMS) and the Benadir Regional Administra- PRIORITY SECTOR INTERVENTIONS (IN USD)a tion (BRA) prioritized the 653 interventions identified in the DINA into three levels—High, Total High Priority Medium, and Low—based on the assessed Sectors Investments contribution of each intervention to a set of Productive Sectors pre-agreed criteria and indicators (see Annex Agriculture – Irrigated and rain-fed Crops 204,715,473 1)5 . The outcome of this prioritization is sum- Agriculture – Livestock 36,571,765 marised in Table 1, where assigned costs are Agriculture – Fisheries 2,225,000 indicative rather than accurate estimates, and in the map in Figure 1 . High priority interven- Productive Sectors Total 243,512,237 tions were then further categorised as either Physical Sectors short, medium or long-term . Water Supply & Sanitation 77,143,250 Transport 147,900,000 Highlights include: Environment & Natural Resource Management 40,013,451 Productive sectors (agriculture; livestock; Physical Sectors Total 265,056,701 fisheries) and Physical sectors (water; Social Sectors transport; environment and natural resource Health 29,914,329 management) investments made up nearly 63 Nutrition 50,902,004 percent of estimated costs of the total high priority investments with transport—roads capturing Education 29,136,583 nearly 18 percent . Social Sectors Total 109,952,915 Cross-cutting Issues Prioritization reflects the local context. Some 80 Urban Development & Municipal Services 141,985,186 percent of the estimated value of Benadir’s high Social Protection & Safety Nets 1,820,694 priority investments are in urban development and municipal services . Food Security 4,641,111 Livelihoods & Employment 10,872,222 Short-term (<1year) high priority interventions Gender & Social Inclusion 20,394,444 focused on agriculture; urban development Displacement & Migration 9,236,114 and municipal services; water supply and DRR 1,431,944 sanitation; health; nutrition; and livestock. Macro Impact 1,255,556 The USD 810 million amount in Table 1 is indic- Cross-cutting Issues Total 191,637,273 ative . Going forward, the output of the pri- Grand Total 810,159,126 oritization process—the high priority sector a Excluding Somaliland and some national-level interventions identified in the DINA. interventions—will be subject to further anal- ysis and consultation . Drawing on Somalia’s existing aid tracking system, the output will be Prioritization and Phasing mapped against ongoing and planned human- itarian and recovery/development program- With technical support from the Ministry of ming, to determine Somalia’s currently unmet Planning, Investment and Economic Devel- recovery and resilience needs . This “shortfall”, 5 Prioritization of DINA needs is planned for Somaliland, but is not reflected in this report. x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FiGURE 1 HiGH PRiORiTiES PER FMS, ACCORDiNG TO MONETARY VALUE Agriculture is accorded the highest priority by 4 of the 5 FMS. Puntland rates transport —including roads linking local markets—the highest priority. Benadir and Southwest State give high priority to urban development and municipal services, including housing for IDPs, jobs and education. Education Livestock Environment and natural resource management Agriculture Urban development and manuicipal services Transport South West Hirshabelle Water supply and sanitation Jubaland Disputed Areas Galmudug Nutrition Banadir Puntland which will be determined annually6, will guide state-level or regional projects, or by more current and future Government and interna- focused, stand-alone projects. tional funding of and investment in recovery and resilience. Some of the shortfalls iden- tified will be met by large-scale programs Financing Framework addressing national priorities that will be car- ried forward by government with interna- The financing of the cost of unmet recovery tional partner support. Others will be met by and resilience needs is expected, to the extent 6 In this way, evolving needs and priorities will be captured and, as new data becomes available (such as the contribution to GDP, employment multipliers, and market costs), improved investment planning across programs will become possible. xi SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK Informed by this understanding, the RRF Financ- ing Framework will facilitate a more efficient financial response by the Government of Soma- lia and its development and humanitarian part- ners, primarily using current funding modalities and aid coordination structures . However, it also recognizes that current funding streams alone will not meet estimated financing needs. The RRF financing framework takes an approach that: i . Complements bottom-up planning ii . Optimizes the efficient use of (current and foreseen) resources iii . Encourages programmatic investments iv . Includes the identification of anchor, ancil- lary and spin-off investments v . Embraces blended finance, to include public private partnerships in key markets such as power and water . possible, to be achieved through the alignment The framework calls for high priority projects or reprogramming of existing and future gov- and programs to be subject to a Government- ernment and partner funds/programs (human- led funding and investment planning and man- itarian and development) . However, it would agement process . The high priorities will be be unreasonable to expect perfect alignment analysed in order to establish alignment with between high priority needs and existing or existing partner recovery and resilience invest- planned funds/programs and, therefore, it ments,7 and to identify current financing gaps. must be assumed that some level of addi- For these gaps, the most feasible approach to tional funding—yet to be determined—will be financing will be decided. needed . The RRF proposes two financing approaches in this It is also likely that future financing requirements regard. The first, will be to match financing gaps for recovery and resilience will outstrip avail- with donor funding opportunities identified by the able government and official development assis- Somalia Development and Reconstruction Facility tance (ODA) funding . Therefore, and in line with (SDRF) Pillar Working Groups (PWGs), and/or reviews concerning Sustainable Development offered by development partners, essentially using Goal (SDG) financing, alternate sources of financ- existing aid coordination mechanisms . However, ing for investment requirements and oppor- in recognition of the likelihood that usual modes tunities will need to be explored to realize RRF of donor funding will be unable to meet medium strategic objectives . and longer-term recovery and resilience financing 7 The term “investments” is here used to describe both donor funding decisions and private sector investment financing. xII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY needs, a second approach will be developed . The ◗◗Aligning with and reinforcing the NDP and second approach will match large or scalable, existing institutional structures; and nationally relevant programs with a mix of public funding and private investment financ- ◗◗Ensuring short term capacity to help oper- ing (blended financing). In addition to introducing ationalize the RRF, while medium- to long- another means of meeting recovery and resil- term capacity building efforts continue in ience financing needs, this second approach offers various tiers of government; the prospect of alternative and more sustainable development financing, and the establishment of ◗◗Contributing to good practice public invest- large, so-called “anchor” projects that will serve to ment management for RRF implementation; catalyze Somalia’s long-term development . ◗◗Maximizing the use of country systems, includ- ing leveraging existing capacities for institu- Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) tional coordination and implementation; The implementation of the RRF will be moni- ◗◗Incrementally, creating pathways towards lon- tored through a set of programmatic and pro- ger-term resilience by initially focusing on quick cess indicators, currently under development, gains towards sustainable drought recovery . and to be hosted within the M&E framework of the NDP . While fully aligned with the NDP’s RRF implementation will build upon national insti- higher-level outcomes, the RRF draws key out- tutional structures, which include the aid coor- come and output indicators directly from the dination architecture of the SDRF, the National DINA and the high-priority needs subsequently Development Council (NDC), the Federal Ministry of identified under the RRF prioritization process. Planning, Investment and Economic Development (MoPIED), and other relevant federal and state- Efforts are now underway to: (a) rationalize the level ministries, departments and agencies . existing RRF M&E framework into critical sec- tor indicators; (b) compare and further align The institutional arrangements for imple- RRF M&E with NDP M&E, vis-à-vis specific map- menting the RRF entail limited supplementary ping of indicators with higher level NDP indica- government capacity within the existing aid coor- tors; (c) identify existing data collection systems dination architecture . In parallel, an independent and databases for relevance with RRF M&E efficiency review of the aid architecture will soon indicators; (d) develop institutional dataflow make recommendations concerning the SDRF, arrangements and M&E reporting systems, and PWG and Aid Coordination Unit (ACU) structures . complete feedback loops on M&E and; (e) to Combined, this is expected to result in an improved include sex, age disaggregated data approach system that will deliver the capacity needed to for effective monitoring and accountability. lead recovery and resilience investment man- agement, and to ensure the necessary urgency and focus on recovery and resilience priorities . Institutional arrangements Separate from any efficiency review recommen- Operationalization of the prioritization and dations, proposed RRF implementation arrange- phasing process, the financial framework and ments include: RRF M&E will be realized through institutional arrangements, the consideration of which has ◗◗The setting up of a small task force of the been guided by five principles, namely: NDC, responsible for preparing and support- ing the NDC to make recommendations to xIII SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK the Government on the evolving recovery ery and resilience priorities are integrated and resilience building priorities . This task into existing work plans and coordination force will ensure that emerging recovery and discussions, and that bottlenecks and opera- resilience building priorities are considered, tional issues delaying recovery and resilience and progress overseen by the NDC, and bot- are addressed by the appropriate govern- tlenecks to progress acted on by the govern- ment department or unit . ment . The NDC will in turn contribute to the agenda setting of the SDRF, and will inform ◗◗Strengthening the existing MoPIED Invest- the SDRF on progress in meeting recovery ment Department to focus on incubat- and resilience priorities across all states . ing, consulting and creating momentum around specific investment proposals. ◗◗Strengthened capacity within the MoP- From the output of the prioritization process, IED Planning and Economic Development the Investment Department will identify large Directorate. This capacity will coordinate or scalable, and nationally relevant programs the prioritization process and fast track the that may be suited to blended financing and programming of recovery and resilience pri- match these with likely sources of public and orities across government and through the private investment financing. The Invest- SDRF, in accordance with the RRF’s financ- ment Department will then convene sectoral ing framework . To this end, the Planning experts and stakeholders of the area of pro- and Economic Development Directorate will posed intervention—including all relevant be strengthened to work closely with both parties: line ministries, relevant PWGs, tech- the SDRF PWGs and the MoPIED Investment nical experts, gender expertise, donors, the Department (see below) to ensure that recov- private sector, etc .—to develop investment xIV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY proposals . Once the investment propos- Conclusion als have been consulted across experts and stakeholders, NDC and SDRF endorsement The Government of Somalia is committed to the will be sought, and financing and implemen- realization of the objectives set out in the RRF tation arrangements further developed . and will commit both domestic finance and in- kind contributions to ensure immediate prog- ◗◗The implementation of M&E arrange- ress . The RRF is fully aligned with the current ments by the MoPIED Monitoring and NDP and will help shape the next national devel- Evaluation (M&E) Department, which will opment planning process, and progress towards integrate and execute RRF monitoring & eval- Somalia’s Vision 2040 . uation within the NDP M&E strategy . Partners are therefore requested to target their own investments in Somalia in support of the The cost of RRF operationalisation priorities set out in this Framework . All stake- holders are encouraged to recommit to promot- In addition to the cost of addressing Somalia’s ing transparency and evidence-based decision unmet recovery and resilience needs, operation- making, supporting the aid coordination system alisation of the RRF through the proposed insti- and the strengthening of government systems tutional arrangements will itself require funding . to take these ambitious goals forward . This additional funding need is acknowledged, but at the time of report preparation its amount has yet to be estimated . xV xvi 01 IN TRO D U C T I O N S tarting in 2016, the prolonged and ongoing Completed in January 2018, the DINA found drought in Somalia has affected as many that more than USD 3 billion in damages or as many as 6 .7 million people–more than losses, equivalent to 50 percent of Somalia’s half the population . The drought has triggered annual GDP, had been caused as a result of a humanitarian crisis that has further strained the 2016–2017 drought . Recovery needs were food security and social services, displacing over estimated at nearly USD 2 billion . Agriculture 1 million people in 2017 alone8 . (irrigated and rain-fed crops), and urban devel- opment and municipal services represented the In response to the crisis, Somali President greatest needs .9 Mohammed Abdullahi Mohamed, declared a nationwide drought and state of national disas- Translating the DINA analysis into action, the ter in February 2017, helping to mobilize interna- Government of Somalia is now developing a tional assistance to avert a famine . Regardless, Resilience and Recovery Framework (RRF) to the drought caused widespread impacts across Somalia, while the exposure to repeated natu- ral climate change-related shocks remains high . GOVERNMENT-LED CONSULTATIVE To support drought recovery and build resil- APPROACH FOR RRF DESIGN ience, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)— under the stewardship of the Ministry As with the DINA, a multi-partner and FGS management structure of Planning, Investments and Economic devel- was established—the Joint Management Team (JMT)—ensuring opment (MoPIED), and in collaboration with the effective coordination, cooperation and consultation to develop World Bank (WB), the United Nations (UN), and the RRF . Led by the FGS, the RRF approach was formulated and the European Union (EU), conducted a Somalia refined in consultation with the JMT, Federal Member States Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA) (FMSs) and Benadir Regional Administration (BRA) . Working to gauge recovery and resilience needs . The groups were established with sector and country experts to assessment involved extensive data collec- develop frameworks for each RRF component . In February tion, dialogue, and stakeholder consultation and March 2018, workshops led by MoPIED were also held with more than 180 national and international across partners to refine the RRF approach, as well as conduct experts, and the assessment and quantification a prioritizing and sequencing exercise for sector interventions . of needs across 18 sectors . 8 The 2018 HRP estimated that there are currently 2 .6 million internally displaced people in Somalia . 9 28 percent and 17 percent respectively . 1 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK enable and inform future financing for recovery and resilience, and to set Somalia on a trajectory towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) . As such, the RRF supports national efforts to strengthen resil- ience to recurrent disasters, respond to climate change, and increase disaster management and crisis response capacity, and aligns strongly with Somalia’s existing humanitarian and develop- ment planning frameworks . The RRF also aligns with the ‘value for money case’ for investment in resilience made in a recent study10 states that investing in early response and resilience measures yields aver- age benefits of USD 2.8 for every USD 1 invested and that when avoided losses are incorporated, resilience building could save USD 794 million, or an average of USD 53 million per year . 10 USAID . 2018 . Economics of Resilience to Drought: Somalia Analysis . 2 INTRoDUCTIoN 3 THE S O M A LI A R ECOV ERY 02 AND R ES I LI EN CE F RAM EWO R K 2.1 RRF Vision, Strategic Objectives ◗◗ SO4: Enhance sustainable management of and Guiding Principles environmental services and access to renew- able energy, and; The Somalia Recovery and Resilience Frame- work (RRF) sets out a collective vision, strate- ◗◗ SO5: Improve basic service delivery in gic objectives and principles to guide drought (affected) urban and peri-urban settings. recovery and build future resilience . Over a 3–5-year timeframe, the RRF is expected to These strategic objectives are aligned with the pave the way for the progressive realization present National Development Plan (NDP), and it of an enabling environment for regular devel- is expected that the RRF will feed into the future opmental activities to take root in Somalia . Its NDP . longer-term intent is to reduce and mitigate the adverse impacts created by recurrent nat- The RRF will produce intermediate outputs ural disasters and related links with conflicts and long-term development impacts. These and governance . include, but are not limited to: Vision: Drought recovery and resilience build- ◗◗ Improvement in citizens’ livelihoods, partic- ing in Somalia through evidence-based analysis, ularly those of women and other vulnerable a bottom-up and inclusive consensus building groups; approach, and integrated and systematic pro- gramming . ◗◗ Continued consensus through bottom-up planning among the FGS, partners, and The strategic objectives (SOs) of the RRF are to: donors on strategic priorities for drought recovery and long-term drought resilience; ◗◗ SO1: Strengthen government capacities for inclusive drought recovery and disaster risk ◗◗ Strengthened FGS capacity to plan, lead and planning, management and monitoring; monitor participatory, high-impact, low-risk ◗◗ SO2: Sustainably revitalize, strengthen and sustainable recovery, and resilience build- diversify economic sectors, livelihoods, and ing contributing to the attainment of durable key infrastructure; solutions to internal displacement; ◗◗ SO3: Promote durable solutions for displace- ◗◗ Improved efficiency, management and coordi- ment affected communities; nation of financing for recovery and resilience; 5 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK ◗◗ Strengthen coordination of interventions among stakeholders and aid harmonization, and setting uniform and consistent stan- dards for the implementation of the recov- ery program; ◗◗ Promote bottom-up needs based planning at the state and federal levels that support par- ticipatory inter-governmental planning pro- cesses and ownership by all affected groups; ◗◗ Establish robust monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for disaster recovery at the pro- grammatic and project levels; and ◗◗ Ensure adequate sequencing, avoid criti- cal gaps and maximize financing available for recovery and resilience building through developing interlinked projects for resilient recovery, and leveraging predictable invest- ments, while ensuring inclusiveness . ◗◗ Increased capacity of FGS, FMS and other 2.2 Alignment with Existing Policies institutions and communities for effective and Strategies in Somalia disaster management, and protecting built and natural environments; and, The RRF is intended to support and align with current national policies and frameworks, ◗◗ Improved coordination across humanitarian including the NDP (2017–19), the SDRF, the Human- and development partners towards common itarian Response Plan (HRP), the national stabiliza- objectives . tion strategy, CRESTA/A (Community Recovery and Extension of State Authority and Accountability), The RRF guiding principles are: and the Durable Solutions Initiative (DSI)11 . The RRF will contribute to Somalia’s progress towards ◗◗ Promote the development of integrated and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) . Nota- harmonized policies and strategies for recov- bly, the RRF aligns with the NDP’s policy priority to ery, resilience and disaster risk management, build resilience .12 The RRF also complements the by supporting flexible and adaptive strate- HRP for 2018 by highlighting strategies to tran- gies to address national development prior- sition away from humanitarian dependence, in ities that are climate-smart, environmentally line with the “New Way of Working” . This includes friendly, gender-sensitive and addressing the planning for the convergence across humanitar- drivers of displacement; ian and development activities, assuring appropri- 11 The DSI serves as the national implementation framework for relevant regional and global commitments, such as the Nairobi Declaration on Durable Solutions for Somali Refugees and Reintegration of Returnees in Somalia, the New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants, and the application of the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) through the National Action Plan (NAP) . 12 Federal Government of Somalia . 2017 . National Development Plan 2017–2018 . Policy Priority VII . 6 THE SoMALIA RECovERy AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWoRk ate sequencing of activities, and tracking common report includes activities grouped around four indicators where feasible . core components: The implementation of the RRF will be inte- ◗◗ Component 1: Prioritizing and sequencing of grated with the SDRF, which is both a coordina- recovery and resilience investments tion framework and a financing architecture for implementing the NDP. The SDRF serves ◗◗ Component 2: A framework for recovery and as a platform for Government and development resilience financing partners to provide strategic guidance and over- sight for development activities . At the same ◗◗ Component 3: Institutional implementation time, the SDRF constitutes the core of the deci- arrangements sion-making arrangements for the Trust Funds (UN, World Bank and AfDB), where the individ- ◗◗ Component 4: Monitoring and evaluation ual funding proposals are to be endorsed by systems the SDRF . The Pillar Working Groups (PWGs) are multi-stakeholder groups involving Government The RRF leads with the prioritization and phas- and its development partners, that review, pri- ing of interventions and related investment oritize and validate sectoral needs and projects needs to address drought impact needs, which addressing those needs, which aligns well with is the entry point from the DINA to the RRF . the requirements for RRF implementation . The output of the prioritization and invest- ment planning process is enabled both by a financing strategy and by institutional arrange- 2.3 The Four Components of the RRF ments, which build-on and strengthen existing coordination structures . Progress towards the The objectives and outcomes of the RRF will be intended results are monitored, reported and achieved through the conceptualization and evaluated, accountability and learning being operationalization of a roadmap and frame- enhanced thereby . The logic of the RRF is shown work for medium-to-long term, multi-sectoral, schematically in Figure 2, below, while the four multi- and inter-institutional, and sustainable RRF components are further presented in the disaster recovery and resilience building. This next chapters . FIGURE 2 SCHEMATIC OF THE RRF RRF investment RRF financing strategy NDP results management strategy and impacts Concept notes and Drought impact RRF Funded development of RRF results and related needs Prioritisation programs detailed funding and & impact (DINA) and phasing and projects investment propostion Underlying institutional RRF monitoring arrangements & evaluation Problem Activities Output Int.outcome Outcomes & impact 7 03 P R IO R I T I ZAT I O N A N D P HASI N G T he leading component of the post-DINA ◗◗Builds on and sustains the positive impact of RRF is the prioritization and phasing of humanitarian action; the interventions needed for Somalia’s recovery from drought, and building of ◗◗Increase focus on pro-poor, pro-vulnerable future resilience identified during the DINA. families, and sensitivity to gender issues; Against the backdrop of large investment needs, very limited financial resources and poor imple- ◗◗Prevent future famines and manmade mentation capacities, prioritization is necessary disaster(s); to engage stakeholders and satisfactorily meet the recovery expectations of the Somali people . ◗◗Promote building resilience and promote build back better practices; 3.1 The Prioritization and Phasing ◗◗Promote durable solutions to and recovery Methodology of displacement-affected populations; The prioritization and phasing of DINA needs ◗◗Address recovery and resilience of drought was conducted by the MoPIED, in close con- and conflict affected communities; and sultation with the planning ministries/depart- ments of the 5 FMSs and the Benadir Regional Promote sustainable management of local Administration, with technical assistance from resources and increase access to basic services the World Bank13 . The methodology assessed and economic opportunities of drought affected each of the 653 sector-level interventions and impacted populations . identified during the DINA process using 12 indicators (see Figure 3 below), selected in rela- The indicators were assigned weights (from 0 tion to the following broad principles: to 12), reflecting their alignment with each of the five RRF strategic objectives. The average ◗◗Based on felt needs and demand based weight per indicator was then calculated . The investment approaches; result is shown in Figure 3 below, where the indicators are grouped under four criteria for ◗◗Promote Government ownership and part- prioritization (also see Annex 1 for a tabulated nerships with private sector; presentation) . 13 Prioritization of DINA needs is planned for Somaliland, but is not reflected in this report. 9 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK FIGURE 3 OUTCOME BASED INDICATORS AND AVERAGE WEIGHTS Strategic Broad Outcome Based Spatial Coverage Beneficiary Targeting Alignments Indicators Rehabilitates and Promotes resilience to future expands basic services drought and other natural and physical shocks, and encourage build Targets drought back better practices infrastructure and Aligned with Somalia and conflict affected people (Weight 11) economic assets National Development (equitable and (major economic assets— Plan Priorities inclusive manner) Enhancing food security agriculture, livestock (Weight 7) (Weight 9) (Weight 10) and fisheries) of drought affected areas (Weight 7) Promotes development of traditional livelihood activities and diversification of economic opportunities (Weight 8) Promotes sustainable management of natural resources and improve resource access of local communities (Weight 7) Improves the delivery and Targets poor households, access of basic services and Improves basic service marginalized groups infrastructure in urban areas accesses and economic including disadvantaged (Weight 8) opportunities and minorities and clans/ Contributes to the natural resource lineages, and extremely overall recovery and Promotes institutional management vulnerable social resilience building capacities to design and (livelihoods, employment classes such as women, (Weight 11) implement RRB programs at and business) in drought female-headed all levels of governments, impacted areas households and children including local communities (Weight 7) (Weight 6) (Weight 8) The application of prioritization indicators/crite- ◗◗The average weight and the respective rele- ria for prioritizing the investment needs across vance score for each indicator were multiplied sectors and states is done by taking into consid- and the products summed together to give a eration the perceived relevance/significance of total weighted score for each intervention . interventions to strategic objectives . ◗◗The percentile of each total weighted score Prioritization was then implemented according within each sector was calculated . to the following steps: ◗◗Each sector-level intervention was then ◗◗For each sector-level intervention identi- ranked as high, medium or low priority, fied during the DINA (653 in total, excluding based on their percentile score – 60–100 per- Somaliland), a relevance score of 0 to 3 for centile as high priority; 30–60 percentile as each indicator was assigned, where 3 is the medium priority; and 0–30 percentile as low highest relevance and 0 the lowest . priority . 10 PRIoRITIzATIoN AND PHASING Finally, once identified, high priority inter- done using heuristic approach, based on obser- ventions were further phased as either short- vations and perspectives captured during the or medium/long-term investment needs . This DINA process and post-DINA discussions . The phasing was based on the assumption that inter- outcome of investment phasing should therefore ventions with a smaller financial requirement be considered as tentative and indicative . often target specific needs and are easy to imple- ment . As such, they need not be subject to an elaborate feasibility assessment and procure- 3.2 Prioritization Results ment process . Therefore, interventions repre- senting less than 10 percent of their respective The methodology was applied to each of the 653 sectoral investment needs were considered suit- interventions in a stakeholder driven process able for short-term investments . Sectoral inter- involving FMS and BRA planning ministry per- ventions with more than 10 percent of sector sonnel (usually the Director General) as well as investments require technical and financial representatives of the FGS . appraisals and would require a longer time frame to design and implement, although some of the As shown in Figure 4, overall, 269 (41 percent) technical and procurement activities could be ini- of the 653 interventions were assessed as high tiated during the short term . Hence, their major priority, while 210 (32 percent) were ranked as investment expenditure cycles are planned for low priority . medium and long terms . The financing needs of high priority interventions In the absence of spatial and technical data were estimated to be USD 810 million, which is related to investment locations, targeted popu- some 40% of the total DINA investment estimate lations/beneficiaries, technical and implementa- of USD 1 .8 billion . This amount is indicative, tion viability of interventions, and market-based pending further analysis and consultation, cost estimates, investment phasing is largely and the mapping of the high priority FIGURE 4 DISTRIBUTION OF INTERVENTIONS INTO PRIORITY CATEGORIES BY STATE 34 Benadir 22 47 103 33 Galmudug 24 42 99 38 South 30 West State 48 116 States 26 Putland 43 40 109 39 Hirshabelle 26 45 110 40 Jubaland 29 47 116 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Number of Interventions No. of Low Priority/Phase 3 Interventions No. of Medium Priority/Phase 2 Interventions No. of High Priority/Phase 1 Interventions Total No. of Interventions 11 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK TABLE 2 NUMBER OF INTERVENTIONS BY PRIORITY AND HIGH PRIORITY INVESTMENT NEEDS High Priority Medium Investment % of DINA Sectors High Priority Priority Low Priority Total Needs (USD) estimatea Agriculture – Irrigated and 13 8 10 31 204,715,473 40 rain-fed Crops Agriculture – Livestock 19 12 14 45 36,571,765 30 Agriculture – Fisheries 7 5 3 15 2,225,000 39 Productive Sectors Sub Total 39 25 27 91 243,512,237 38 Water Supply & Sanitation 18 13 18 49 77,143,250 38 Transport 6 0 0 6 147,900,000 83 Environment & Natural 29 22 26 77 40,013,451 38 Resource Management Physical Sectors Sub Total 53 35 44 132 265,056,701 55 Health 31 24 24 79 29,914,329 33 Nutrition 25 15 17 57 50,902,004 45 Education 14 7 11 32 29,136,583 61 Social Sectors Sub Total 70 46 52 168 109,952,915 44 Urban Development & 5 2 7 14 141,985,186 48 Municipal Services Social Protection & Safety 12 7 11 30 1,820,694 12 Nets Food Security 12 7 7 26 4,641,111 16 Livelihoods & Employment 6 6 8 20 10,872,222 44 Gender & Social Inclusion 13 6 12 31 20,394,444 42 Displacement & Migration 35 26 29 90 9,236,114 32 DRR 12 7 6 25 1,431,944 26 Macro Impact 12 7 7 26 1,255,556 32 Cross-cutting Issues Sub Total 107 68 87 262 191,637,273 37 Grand Total 269 174 210 653 810,159,126 43 a High priority investments as % of DINA investment estimate. interventions against current and planned percentage of social protection and safety nets; humanitarian and development programming food security; and disaster risk reduction sector (see Section 3 .4, below) . interventions, are ranked as medium or low pri- ority by the FMS . As shown in Table 2, nearly 63 percent of the total high priority investments are for produc- An important lesson learned from the prioritiza- tive and physical sectors, with transport captur- tion exercise is the need to balance recovery and ing nearly 18 percent. Surprisingly, a significant resilience building investments . The number of 12 PRIoRITIzATIoN AND PHASING interventions ranked as high priority in the live- such investments are required at a national level, lihood and employment sectors are 30 percent; in addition to the FMS level, and relate closely to in the urban development and municipal services components of the National Development Plan . sector 36 percent of interventions are ranked as The relative priority attached to the national level high priority; and in water supply and sanitation needs within the RRF will depend in part on the it is 37 percent, while 100 percent of the interven- success of refocusing resources on the sequenced tions in the transport sector are rated as high pri- recovery and resilience building priorities of the ority . In comparison, 41 percent of interventions RRF. As progress within the specific sectors is in the cross-cutting sectors are ranked as high made, parallel investments in national capacities to priority, although they share only 24 percent of support and encourage that growth will be essential . the total high priority investment estimate . The national-level macroeconomic drought Turning to Table 3, above, based on the damages, recovery needs that were identified in the DINA will losses and investment needs estimated during require further consideration and prioritization the DINA process, the investment needs of high as the FGS undertakes investment policy and priority interventions of Puntland and South West promotion . These include the development of States are high, representing nearly 69 percent and a power master plan, including cross-border, 53 percent of their total DINA investment needs wind and solar and off-grid power; strengthening respectively . Nearly two thirds of high priority of the digital ecosystem and increased internet investments needs in the country is captured by access; as well as capacity building of the Central South West and Puntland States, with agriculture Bank and greater access to credit . and urban development and municipal services being the key sectors in South West State, and the The DINA also identified recovery needs in the transport sector in Puntland State . As expected, Governance sector which focus on capacity 84 percent of the Benadir’s total high priority development for key national institutions to investment is required by the urban development lead, manage, and monitor programming and municipal services sector . for drought recovery over the medium term, as well as information and database In terms of the phasing of the high priority management, facilitating access to finance for investments, USD 241 million of the USD social entrepreneurs, project development, and 810 million (or 30 percent) was identified as establishment and capacity development of short-term (Table 4) . disaster management institutions . The sectors which received a larger percentage The need to improve environment and natural of total short-term investments are agriculture resource management sector was also identi- (25 percent), urban development and municipal fied as a national priority, with the DINA point- services (16 percent), water supply and sanita- ing to the importance of investing in cleaner and tion (12 percent), and 7 percent each for health; renewable energy sources and rehabilitation of nutrition and livestock, as further outlined in ecosystems . Table 5 below . 3.4 Further refining high priority 3.3 National-Level Priorities sector interventions and national level priorities As stated in the DINA, “sustainable growth will require investments in physical and human The output of the prioritization and phas- capital and institutional strengthening” . Some ing process—the high priority sector 13 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK TABLE 3 FMS HIGH PRIORITY INVESTMENTS BY SECTOR INTERVENTION South West Jubaland Galmudug Puntland Hirshabelle Banadir TOTAL High Priority High Priority High Priority High Priority High Priority High Priority High Priority Sectors Investments Investments Investments Investments Investments Investments Investments Productive Sectors Agriculture – Irrigated and 105,240,168 30,044,118 10,147,059 40,191,176 19,092,952 204,715,473 rain-fed Crops Agriculture – Livestock 17,072,471 3,000,000 1,676,471 3,441,176 11,381,647 36,571,765 Agriculture – Fisheries 358,333 1,075,000 75,000 716,667 2,225,000 Productive Sectors Total 122,670,972 34,119,118 11,823,529 43,707,353 31,191,265 — 243,512,237 Physical Sectors Water Supply & Sanitation 15,400,500 21,489,167 1,466,667 23,533,750 12,355,889 2,897,278 77,143,250 Transport 25,500,000 25,300,000 5,675,000 90,625,000 533,333 266,667 147,900,000 Environment & Natural 5,166,666 3,142,251 2,154,460 27,463,378 1,317,056 769,640 40,013,451 Resource Management Physical Sectors Total 46,067,166 49,931,418 9,296,127 141,622,128 14,206,278 3,933,584 265,056,701 Social Sectors Health 4,392,733 5,079,098 3,275,297 11,061,348 4,275,548 1,830,305 29,914,329 Nutrition 11,185,440 5,748,041 7,229,433 15,762,831 4,726,434 6,249,826 50,902,004 Education 11,481,600 1,959,600 2,809,183 3,846,500 1,700,400 7,339,300 29,136,583 Social Sectors Total 27,059,773 12,786,738 13,313,913 30,670,678 10,702,382 15,419,431 109,952,915 Cross-cutting Issues Urban Development & 64,241,160 15,802,800 — 61,941,226 141,985,186 Municipal Services Social Protection & Safety 44,667 1,094,667 140,250 67,000 187,000 287,111 1,820,694 Nets Food Security 853,333 3,373,333 30,000 60,000 40,000 284,444 4,641,111 Livelihoods & Employment 316,667 3,333,333 — 5,000,000 2,222,222 — 10,872,222 Gender & Social Inclusion 5,483,333 1,300,000 2,741,667 8,225,000 866,667 1,777,778 20,394,444 Displacement & Migration 2,666,667 2,583,334 375,000 1,500,000 1,833,333 277,780 9,236,114 DRR 333,333 408,333 308,333 222,222 159,722 1,431,944 Macro Impact 183,333 183,333 250,000 250,000 333,333 55,556 1,255,556 Cross-cutting Issues Total 74,122,494 28,079,134 3,845,250 15,102,000 5,704,777 64,783,618 191,637,273 Grand Total 269,920,404 124,916,408 38,278,819 231,102,159 61,804,703 84,136,633 810,159,126 14 PRIoRITIzATIoN AND PHASING interventions and national-level priorities— will be subject to further analysis and con- sultation across government and with the Pillar Working Groups (PWGs) of the Soma- lia Development and Reconstruction Facility (SDRF). Drawing on Somalia’s existing aid track- ing system, the result of this further refining will be mapped against ongoing and planned human- itarian and recovery/development programming, to determine Somalia’s currently unmet recovery and resilience needs (see Annex 2 on aid map- ping) . The “shortfall”, which will be determined annually, will, together with the RRF financing framework (described in the following section), guide current and future Government and part- ner funding of, and investment in, recovery and resilience. Some of the shortfalls identified will be met by large-scale programs addressing national priorities that will be carried forward by govern- ment with international partner support . Others will be met by state-level or regional projects, or by more focused, stand-alone projects . The oper- ationalization of this process is outlined in section 6 of the report, on Institutional Arrangements . TABLE 4 INVESTMENT PHASING OF HIGH PRIORITY INTERVENTIONS (USD) High Priority Interventions States Short Term Medium& Long Term Total Investments Puntland 68,111,761 162,990,398 231,102,159 Galmudug 13,984,407 24,294,412 38,278,819 Hirshebelle 23,554,685 38,250,018 61,804,703 South West 70,835,622 199,084,782 269,920,404 Jubaland 40,227,139 84,689,269 124,916,408 Benadir 24,390,081 59,746,552 84,136,633 TOTAL 241,103,695 569,055,432 810,159,126 *Note: Excludes Somaliland State. 15 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK TABLE 5 INVESTMENT PHASING OF HIGH PRIORITY INTERVENTIONS (USD) Short term Medium Term & Long Total High Priority Sectors (1Yr) Term (2 Yr+) Investments Productive Sectors Agriculture – Irrigated and rain-fed Crops 48,790,315 155,925,158 204,715,473 Agriculture – Livestock 14,419,882 22,151,882 36,571,765 Agriculture – Fisheries 1,391,667 833,333 2,225,000 Productive Sectors Total 64,601,864 178,910,373 243,512,237 Physical Sectors Water Supply & Sanitation 30,269,750 46,873,500 77,143,250 Transport 29,580,000 118,320,000 147,900,000 Environment & Natural Resource Management 13,160,673 26,852,778 40,013,451 Physical Sectors Total 73,010,423 192,046,278 265,056,701 Social Sectors Health 16,307,069 13,607,259 29,914,329 Nutrition 22,082,999 28,819,004 50,902,004 Education 8,552,621 20,583,961 29,136,583 Social Sectors Total 46,942,690 63,010,225 109,952,915 Cross-cutting Issues Urban Development & Municipal Services 36,917,048 105,068,138 141,985,186 Social Protection & Safety Nets 881,806 938,889 1,820,694 Food Security 1,863,333 2,777,778 4,641,111 Livelihoods & Employment 3,293,333 7,578,889 10,872,222 Gender & Social Inclusion 7,415,278 12,979,167 20,394,444 Governance 0 0 0 Conflict 0 0 0 Displacement & Migration 4,568,057 4,668,057 9,236,114 DRR 770,972 660,972 1,431,944 Macro Impact 838,889 416,667 1,255,556 Cross-cutting Issues Total 56,548,717 135,088,556 191,637,273 Grand Total 241,103,695 569,023,401 810,159,126 Note: Excludes Somaliland State. 16 04 F INAN C I N G FR A M EWO R K 4.1 Introduction private sector; Official Development Assistance (ODA) providers; non-governmental organiza- The financing of the cost of unmet recov- tions; and banks . ery and resilience needs is expected, to the extent possible, to be achieved through the Continuing to reach out to traditional alignment or reprogramming of existing and donors. The RRF will continue to mostly rely on future government and partner funds/pro- traditional financing using existing coordination grams (humanitarian and development). mechanisms . It will build on existing coordina- However, it would be unreasonable to expect tion mechanisms (the SDRF) to engage tradi- perfect alignment between high priority needs tional donors, leveraging the RRF approach to and existing or planned funds/programs and, highlight government-led, bottom-up, and evi- therefore, it must be assumed that some level dence-based rationale to inform and advocate of additional funding—as yet undetermined— for funding . will be needed . At the same time, it is important to reach out It is also likely that future financing require- to new partners and non-traditional donors. ments for recovery and resilience will outstrip New strategic partnerships, including private available government and official develop- sector, are critical to building sustainable capac- ment assistance (ODA) funding. Therefore, in ities through knowledge transfers and techni- line with reviews concerning Sustainable Devel- cal advisory support . In support of building core opment Goal (SDG) financing, alternate sources government competencies in key economic and of financing for investment requirements and infrastructure areas, high feasibility opportuni- opportunities will need to be explored to realize ties for blended finance and options for realis- RRF strategic objectives . tic new strategic partnerships will be identified. Together with possible new partners and the rel- The Financing Framework brings together evant Pillar Working Groups, the high feasibility both traditional financing modalities for link- “anchor project” opportunities will be reviewed ing recovery and resilience and new blended (e .g . with the Development Finance Institutions finance and alternative financing modalities. (DFIs), Private Infrastructure Development This is in furtherance of the shift towards New Group (PIDG), Public-Private Infrastructure Ways of Working (NWOW), Funding to Finance Advisory Facility (PPIAF), World Bank Global (F2F) and Maximizing Financing for Development Infrastructure Facility (GIF), African Investment (MFD) . Such an approach assumes close collabo- Facility (AIF), and Asian Infrastructure Investment ration between five partners: governments; the Bank (AIIB) etc .) 19 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK FIGURE 5 RRF FINANCING FRAMEWORK RRF Investment Sources Finance Sources Financing Modalities Implementation Agriculture Public Sector Budget Support / Governments TSA / SFMIS Water and Sanitation Governments Pooled Funds Transport United Nations Donors (SDRF/MPTF etc.) Phase I and Phase 2 Prioritization Budget Allocations and Allotments Environment & Natural Resources NGOs Works, Supplies and Services INGOs / NGOs NGOs Health Private Sector Nutrition Blended Finance Private Sector Transactions Education Social or Dev. Urban Development / Municipal Contractors Impact Bonds Social Protection / Safety Nets Public Private Special Purpose Partnerships Vehicles Food Security Transaction Employment Livelihoods Advisory Gender & Social Inclusion Displacement & Migration DRR Macro Impact Data and Analysis Pilot blended finance and other modalities profile with flexible capital and favorable terms, to set the stage for broad adoption . Private in key sectors identified in the DINA-RRF where investment in Somalia is beset with substan- such investments make sense . Blended invest- tial risk . These risks not only reduce capital and ment models are likely to emerge from housing, commercial expansion, but they also starve the power, fisheries, education, health, water and economy and communities of important oppor- sanitation, and infrastructure sectors . tunities for wealth creation . Overcoming the barriers to private capital in Somalia will, in part, An overview of the RRF financing frame- occur once debt is forgiven and normal finan- work is provided in Figure 5 below. Existing cial markets are restored . At the same time, systems, including direct budget support and because markets do not function very well, pooled funds (e .g . the SDRF-associated African returns are often too low to warrant invest- Development Bank Somali Infrastructure Fund ment, and donors have focused on creating (AfDB SIF), United Nations Multi Partner Trust an enabling environment only, with direct col- Fund (UN MPTF), and World Bank Multi Partner laboration between public and private funds Fund (WB MPF)) will remain priority financing being limited. Blended finance models have modalities . Humanitarian support will continue the potential to shift the investment risk-return to be channeled through the United Nations, 20 FINANCING FRAMEWoRk humanitarian organizations and NGOs . In addi- diate needs, it must also lay the foundation for tion, donors will be identified to provide cata- promoting sustainable economic growth . This lytic support to significant anchor projects, and implies identifying catalytic financing that can in blended finance options, including social and support proof-of-concept investments in anchor development impact bonds . PPP transaction projects, which in turn generate ancillary and advisory support will be procured to assess a spinoff investments. Investments that generate national PPP pipeline and new municipal instru- positive multiplier effects, and positive rates of ments will also be introduced . return—in terms of growth, revenue and jobs-- should be prioritized . Investments that yield pos- itive rates of return and strengthen revenue to 4.2 Financing Depends on Value for GDP ratios will in turn strengthen the government Money financing capacity and help fulfill the social con- tract between the state and citizens . The ‘value for money case’ for investment in resilience made in a recent study14 states that investing in early response and resilience mea- 4.3 The RRF Financing Framework sures yields average benefits of USD 2.8 for every Builds upon Existing Systems and USD 1 invested and that when avoided losses Seeks Expansion are incorporated, resilience building could save USD 794 million, or an average of USD 53 million In order to strengthen existing systems, the per year . Though costs related to ‘false positive’ financing framework aligns with Somalia’s interventions (intervening when it was not neces- existing aid coordination architecture, the sary) and ‘false negative’ interventions (not inter- Somalia Development and Reconstruction vening when it was necessary) would also need Facility (SDRF), while embracing what is to be taken into consideration; alongside safety referred to as a ‘right-financing’ approach. nets, self-targeting, and direct aid assistance Under this approach, traditional financing is using mobile transfers. To a significant extent, pursued in conjunction with the modification the RRF financing framework aims to improve the of financing modalities to reflect the rather value-for-money of the existing system . unique financing context presented by the RRF. Therefore, the financing framework aims The financing framework builds upon the to work within existing systems, strengthening strength of the RRF process . The bottom-up them to attract traditional financing, while also planning and delivery approach—which improves laying the foundation for the introduction of spatial location and beneficiary targeting—is blended financing in key areas of the economy essential to the success of the RRF and significantly to diversify the financing tools available to drive enhances financing options. This strengthens the development. Blended finance and other inno- ability of recovery and resilience actors to address vative financing models have the potential to the underlying causes of cyclical humanitarian shift the investment risk-return profile with flex- disaster, fragility and poverty, and to develop (new) ible capital and favorable terms, in key sectors investment models for durable solutions to the where such DINA-related investments make protracted IDP caseload increasing year-on-year . sense. Blended finance models are likely to emerge from areas such as, larger scale, durable The RRF emphasizes investments that housing solutions for protracted internally dis- strengthen economic impact and are finan- placed persons; infrastructure, including trans- cially viable. While the RRF must prioritize imme- port and resource corridors; and public private 14 USAID . 2018 . Economics of Resilience to Drought: Somalia Analysis . 21 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK partnerships in the area of education, energy, that a significant part of the financing will be health, irrigation and water provision . attracted through standing systems of existing donor (ODA) agencies . The approach in the pres- Integrate supply and demand side planning . ent framework is to provide a practical approach One of the challenges addressed by this financing to strengthening of existing systems while laying framework is that donor-related financing is not the foundation for new resources that have so far usually fungible . An unknown volume of assistance not been mobilized to drive growth and resilience is already committed to existing projects, and other efforts in Somalia. Achieving a mix of 90 percent finances are regulated by budget lines and inter- grants and 10 percent blended finance by the nal aid modalities, making it difficult to re-program end of the 3–5 year RRF time frame would illus- and re-focus finance on the RRF priorities. trate such a commitment . Such a transition would Matching the priority investment with ongoing and overcome: (i) low returns for the level of risk; (ii) planned (ODA) investments will help avoid overlap . improve market inefficiencies; (iii) strengthen the For future investment planning, analysis of avail- national investment climate; and, (iv) build core able ‘fiscal space’ is needed to allow the RRF plan- competencies around better systems . For this to ning process to be linked to available resources . happen, the investment framework in Somalia needs to be upgraded, to include public-private Improving alignment and harmonization. partnership (PPP) policy and regulatory stan- Aligned to the SDRF process, the primary approach dards, and economic rate of return (ERR) and adopted here is to work within existing systems employment multiplier analysis . and modalities, while improving effectiveness (impact on objectives) and efficiency (value for money) . As agreed in the Mutual Accountabil- 4.5 A Learning and Capacity ity Framework, and as indicated in the National Development Approach to the Development Plan, the use of pooled funding Financing Architecture remains a preferred financing modality through the SDRF MPTF, AfDB SIF, and the WB MPF . Both the strengthening of the exist- ing systems and the introduction of new While accepting that the initial scope of inno- approaches require learning and capac- vative financing approaches will be limited, ity development tactics . The development of it remains important to increase the use of sound investment proposals, the engagement Country Systems alongside national plan- process with potential investors (both tradi- ning capacities, augmenting the financing tional and non-traditional), as well as the intro- flows into the Treasury Single Account (TSA), duction of new financing modalities and part- which are recorded on the Somalia Financial nerships, require a national capacity that is up Management Information System (SFMIS), and to the job at hand . As indicated in the Implemen- will not only build Government capacity in rela- tation Arrangements section, below, support to tion to state responsiveness, but will also lead the national structures is foreseen to gradually the shift away from parallel delivery systems develop the capacities that are required . Sec- and a second civil service (aid staffing), to a ondly, the investment environment in Somalia is model more closely supportive of self-reliance . complex, with multiple variables influencing the investment process and the potential impact investments generate . In order to ensure, as 4.4 The Scope of the Financing much as possible, that investments do realize Requirements the objectives of the RRF, a solid learning and M&E approach is required (as outlined in the The scope of the financing requirements out- final chapter). The key areas that need dedi- lined in the Prioritization section above indicates cated attention are outlined below . 22 05 L E ARN I N G , M O N I TO R I N G AND E VA LUAT I O N 5.1 Introduction projects by implementers towards strategic out- comes, indicators and targets, allowing for a sys- The RRF, requires an innovative and flexible tematic aggregation of intermediate outcome approach to the results-based monitoring of and output indicators in relation to correspond- recovery and resilience work being undertaken in ing targets . This approach allows for greater Somalia . Learning from, and M&E of, the drought and more accurate tracking of outcomes and recovery response is a critical component of plan- impacts generated by RRF interventions . ning and coordination that must be a focus of attention during the early stages of RRF roll-out . A gradual approach to RRF monitoring in This will entail the preparation and operation- Somalia will be adopted to address challenges alization of a programmatic “results frame- in the Somalia context. These include data work” at the federal level that is integrated scarcity and inaccessibility, structural and capac- closely with, and builds upon, the NDP indica- ity limitations, and the absence of coordination tor matrix, and which as part of the NDP M&E across partners for data sharing . Consequently, strategy tracks progress being made toward the following steps will be taken: the recovery needs contained in the DINA. The programmatic results framework, through a ◗◗Test the monitoring plan using a preliminary stakeholder-driven system of project monitoring set of RRF indicators; at multiple levels, will be a first step in building oversight, transparency, accountability and good ◗◗Refine and rationalize the draft results knowledge management within the Somalia framework in line with NDP and humanitar- drought recovery program . ian monitoring systems; Strategic Parameters for RRF Results Mea- ◗◗Develop a long-term monitoring plan; surement. These characteristics are essential ingredients for effective coordination and deci- ◗◗Identify partner incentives for reporting; and sion making of drought recovery programming in Somalia . Integrated closely with the NDP M&E ◗◗Institutionalize monitoring and data sharing . strategy, the parameters shall be underpinned by a flow of reliable reporting of intermediate The RRF results framework will be opera- outputs and outcomes, driven by stakeholder tionalized over time through the develop- project inputs at both state and federal levels . ment of a RRF Results Measurement Model, Thus, the proposed results framework shall based on a fusion of contemporary quantitative, allow for measuring contributions of various statistical and qualitative techniques for results 25 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK measurement . Key steps towards the operation- ◗◗Leveraging contribution-based results alization of the RRF include the following: management. The approach will utilize a “contribution based approach” for measuring ◗◗Stage 1: Development, refinement, and final- the contributions of various projects towards ization of RRF’s Central Results Framework the strategic results areas of the RRF—instead and Results Monitoring System; of the conventional attribution technique for results measurement . Such results shall be ◗◗Stage 2: Operationalization of the Central measured at the aggregate level eventually Results Framework and Monitoring System; (intermediate and strategic outcome level), and but in the first phase, shall be measured start- ing with discrete sets of intermediate out- ◗◗Stage 3: Development and operationalization put indicators at the state and federal levels, of interfaces between Central and Project given the phased and incremental scaling-up Result Frameworks . approach envisaged under the RRF . A gradual approach to RRF monitoring in ◗◗Separating “monitoring” from “evalua- Somalia is adopted to address challenges in tion”. The RRF program intermediate out- the Somalia context. These include data scar- comes indicators will primarily be used for city and inaccessibility, structural and capac- regular monitoring of strategic progress being ity limitations, and the absence of coordination made towards the achievement of the even- across partners for data sharing . Consequently, tual program outcomes . The program stra- the following recommendations and immediate tegic outcome indicators shall primarily, but next steps are recommended: not necessarily, be used for the periodic pro- gram evaluations planned under the proposed ◗◗Test the monitoring plan using a preliminary results management regime . At least initially, set of RRF indicators; the proposed M&E approach will focus on results monitoring, while evaluation strategies ◗◗Refine and rationalize the draft results are further assessed . framework in line with NDP and humanitar- ian monitoring systems; ◗◗A cascaded system of information flows that link program and project results. ◗◗Develop a long-term monitoring plan; The central or programmatic results frame- work should relate to various project-level ◗◗Identify partner incentives for reporting; and M&E systems through effective and stream- lined multi-stakeholder interfaces (for exam- ◗◗Institutionalize monitoring and data sharing . ple, federal and/or state dashboards) . Doing so would allow regular reporting by govern- ment and implementing partners on proj- 5.2 The Principles of the M&E ect indicators (state and federal) tracked to Framework the programmatic results framework, allow- ing the aggregation of information at multi- Basic Principles of the M&E Strategy. The ple levels (Figure 7); following principles are instrumental to the development of a programmatic results ◗◗Setting targets for results . RRF will adopt a framework at the federal and state levels, which systematic approach for target setting for its tracks to contributions from both state and results (outputs and outcomes) over three federal-level projects: years . 26 LEARNING, MoNIToRING AND EvALUATIoN FIGURE 6 CASCADING OPERATIONALIZATION OF THE PROPOSED PROGRAMMATIC M&E FRAMEWORK NDP Results Framework Federal Programmatic Results Framework for RRF Outcome level 1 Interface 1: Aggregation of outputs and Federally run projects and programs outcomes at federal level Puntland Galmudug Jubaland South West Somliland Hirshabelle Benadir State level programmatic results frameworks for RRF Interface 2: Systematic aggregation of outputs and intermediate outcomes at State level State run recovery projects ◗◗Developing a solid and trackable baseline ment partner projects tracked against the RRF that tracks with the DINA (i .e ., possibly drawing programmatic results framework in the con- on need estimates), providing the basis of the text of the Somalia National Development M&E system, needs to be established by the FGS Plan (2017–19) (NDP). At the state level, this may and states– with support from development include reporting into state-level programmatic partners—and shared among all stakeholders . recovery frameworks that mimic the federal RRF results framework . At both state and federal lev- ◗◗Assuring vertical and horizontal coordina- els, development partners and ministries may tion to collect and validate information on pro- feed into the RRF programmatic results frame- gram and project progress at all Government works, although it is recognized that not all proj- levels, and among different agencies, is the ects’ indicators may map directly to the RRF pro- key of an effective reporting structure. grammatic results framework . At each level of interaction (state and federal), an interface15 will eventually be built that systematically links proj- 5.3 The Cascading Workflow ect-level result frameworks with the central RRF framework (sector outcomes, outputs and indi- Figure 6 illustrates the ideal flow of project cators and strategic objectives and indicators), information from state, federal and develop- allowing for systematic aggregation and analysis . 15 May include automated online dashboards or manual, excel-based systems . 27 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK drought recovery in Somalia has been devel- oped, which sets out a long-term RRF moni- toring strategy for Somalia . The framework is based on the DINA Action Plan and looks at proj- ect-level intermediate outcomes and outputs, covering 15 sectors and corresponding strate- gic and intermediate outcomes and indicators (Annex 3, Proposed RRF Results Framework) . The intermediate outputs deliver intermediate sector outcomes, which combine to deliver stra- tegic outcomes . The causal results chain will be monitored through indicators and associated targets at both federal and state levels . Table 6 provides a “snapshot” of the RRF results frame- work’s intermediate and strategic outcomes and associated indicators . The RRF results framework is both aligned to the SDGs and the NDP, accounting for 27 NDP indi- cators and 14 SDGs . Putting the proposed RRF monitoring approach into action requires a grad- ual approach to address challenges in the 5.4 Focus on Monitoring, Cascading Somalia context, including data scarcity and a Contribution-Based and inaccessibility, structural and capac- Approach ity limitations, and the absence of coordi- nation across partners for data sharing. In line with the principles and approach In the Section 7 an overview is presented of described above, an initial draft of the program- the steps required to fully develop the M&E matic results framework at the federal level for Framework . 28 TABLE 6 RRF STRATEGIC AND INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES AND INDICATORS Proposed RRF Results Framework Vision: Formulate a holistic, systematic approach to the recovery and resilience building process of Somalia. Strategic Outcomes Strategic Outcome Indicators RRF makes significant contributions towards the following key crisis recovery outcomes across all drought-affected states in Somalia: Strengthened government capacities 1. Strengthened relationship and trust between state, communities and civil society for inclusive recovery and disaster 2. Greater transparency and accountability in public resource management risk management planning, implementation, and monitoring Intermediate Outcome Indicators • Worldwide Governance index • Number of deaths from natural disasters • Economic loss from natural disasters Recovered and resilient economic 1. Recovery of agricultural production and livestock export sectors, livelihoods, and key 2. Sustainable employment base (index) infrastructure Intermediate Outcome Indicators • Area of land under rain-fed agriculture • Area of land under irrigated cultivation • Annual livestock value • Restored livestock herd is more resilient • Value of fish caught in Somalia • Estimated population in catchment areas of roads repaired through RRF • Number of people in poverty • Unemployment rate • Number of women in the labor force • Annual investment growth rate Advanced durable solutions and 1. Number of IDPs recovery for previously displaced and affected communities Intermediate Outcome Indicators • Percent of children under 5 with acute malnutrition • Number of previously displaced school aged children enrolled in school • Percent of poverty incidence of former IDPs that are female • Number of former IDPs in poverty Sustainable management of 1. Enhanced provision of environmental services environment services and enhanced 2. Improved household access to renewable energy access to renewable energy Intermediate Outcome Indicators • Increase in vegetative cover monitored remotely in sample areas for each climate zone • Increase in land area benefitting from improved watershed management practices • Total kWH generated by solar energy plants • Total KWH generated by wind turbines • National consumption of LPG Increased service delivery within 1. Increase in service delivery within affected urban areas affected urban areas Intermediate Outcome Indicators • Number of people with access to clean water • Number of people with access to sanitation services • Under 5 mortality rates 06 IN STI T U T I O N A L ARRAN G EM EN T S The purpose of the proposed institutional ◗ Maximizing the use of country systems, includ- arrangements is: a) to domicile within govern- ing leveraging existing capacities for institu- ment drought needs assessment and prioriti- tional coordination and implementation; zation, and the process matching recovery and resilience programs and projects with sources ◗ Incrementally, creating pathways towards lon- of funding and/or financing; b) to enable the ger-term resilience by initially focusing on quick rolling-out by government ministries, depart- gains towards sustainable drought recovery . ments and agencies (MDAs) and international partners of programs and projects for which funding and/or financing has been secured; 6.1 Building on Existing Structures c) to monitor the progress of implementation of those programs and projects; and, e) eval- The RRF will directly contribute to the realization uate the outcome and impact of the RRF . The of the objectives of the NDP and will build on expected timeframe of the RRF is between 3 Somalia’s existing aid coordination architecture, and 5 years. the SDRF . The development of institutional arrange- The SDRF, in its current form, consists of: the ments for RRF implementation will be guided Somalia Partnership Forum (SPF); the SDRF by five principles, namely: Steering Committee (SDRF SC); 9 Pillar Work- ing Groups (PWGs);16 and 3 multi-partner trusts ◗ Leveraging the NDP for Somalia’s governance funds. The SPF focuses on high-level policy and framework as the strategic platform; partnership principles; the SDRF SC and the PWGs focus on consistency and coherence between ◗ Ensuring short term capacity to help opera- development actions, and the endorsement of tionalize the DINA and RRF, while medium- to funding proposals to the three trust funds . This long-term capacity building efforts continue architecture is provided logistical and organiza- in various tiers of government; tional support from the Government side by the Aid Coordination Unit (ACU) . The SDRF Steering Com- ◗ Contributing to good practice public invest- mittee and Pillar Working Groups are co-chaired by ment management for RRF implementation; a government agency and an international agency . 16 The PWGs are: 1) Inclusive politics; 2) Justice and Security; 3) Building effective institutions; 5) Inclusive & sustainable economic growth; 6) Social & human development; 7) Infrastructure; 8) Building resilience capacity; 9) Human rights and gender . 31 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK The Ministry of Planning, Investment and maintain the prioritization and phasing, Economic Development (MoPIED) is the SDRF’s financing and M&E functions described in principal point of contact within the FGS, and is this report, thereby enabling the rolling out responsible for overall SDRF agenda manage- by Government and its development part- ment, and ensuring the alignment of Govern- ners of programs and projects that address ment and development partner programming the country’s highest priority recovery and with the NDP . resilience building needs . This will in turn require the FGS and FMS to assume a range The National Development Council (NDC) is of recovery and resilience investment man- a coordination body which has been set up to agement functions that are additional to aid provide strategic direction, guidance and leader- coordination . These include: ship to the drafting of the National Development Plan and to advocate for the plan at the national ◗ Strategic oversight and direction for drought and state levels . recovery and resilience The SDRF and its associated Government insti- ◗ Policy coordination and validation tutions are shown in Figure 7 . ◗ RRF program development 6.2 Operationalizing the RRF ◗ RRF project implementation and coordina- tion RRF operationalization will require the existing aid coordination architecture to ◗ RRF project progress monitoring FIGURE 7 SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF SOMALIA’S CURRENT AID COORDINATION ARCHITECTURE SPF Policy dialogue & strategy coordination NDC Planning forum MoPIED Trust Funds SDRF NDP Coordination; Strategy, policy, aid mapping; investment; guidance Other sources M&E ACU 9 Pillar Working Groups FMS FMS FMS FMS FMS BRA Note: BRA = Benadir Regional Administration. 32 INSTITUTIoNAL ARRANGEMENTS ◗ Coordination of inter-governmental and ◗ The MoPIED Investment Department, to inter-ministerial dialogue on near term disas- take responsibility for incubating, consult- ter recovery and resilience ing and creating momentum around blended financing opportunities to emerge from the ◗ Mobilization of resources for drought recov- prioritization process . ery and resilience In addition, the MoPIED Monitoring and ◗ Mapping of resources to drought recovery & Evaluation (M&E) Department will work with resilience needs the Planning and Economic Development Directorate and the PWGs to integrate and exe- ◗ Injection of capacity for drought recovery & cute RRF monitoring & evaluation within the resilience NDP M&E strategy . ◗ Coordination between development and Within this proposed arrangement, the MoPIED humanitarian partners, and the private sector Planning and Economic Development Directorate will coordinate the development and approval of ◗ Cross-support to PWGs concept notes, using the output of the RRF pri- oritization and phasing and aid mapping pro- Rather than adding to the current architecture, cesses, described in Section 3 . The concept notes these additional functions will be carried out by will be prepared by FGS/FMS MDAs, the MoPIED strengthening existing structures and capac- Investment Department and/or development ities . In practice, this means that three com- partners, and matched with potential sources ponents of the current architecture would be of funding, or, in certain cases, with potential strengthened: investment financing, in accordance with the RRF financing framework (Section 4). ◗ The NDC through the formation of an RRF Taskforce, consisting of FGS and FMS direc- Potential programs that have already emerged tors general of planning and, as appropri- from the prioritization process, which could ate, technical counterparts from FGS and become the focus of concept notes include: FMS MDAs . The Taskforce will be responsi- ble for preparing and supporting the NDC ◗ Rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads to make recommendations to Government on evolving recovery and resilience build- ◗ Livestock development ing priorities . It will ensure that emerging recovery and resilience building priorities ◗ Irrigation and watershed management are considered, and progress overseen by the NDC, and bottlenecks to progress are acted on by the government . The NDC will in ◗ Water supply and sanitation and construc- turn contribute to the agenda setting of the tion of new boreholes SDRF, and will inform the SDRF on progress in meeting recovery and resilience priorities ◗ Water & desalination across all states . ◗ Health and nutrition ◗ The MoPIED Planning and Economic Development Directorate to coordinate the ◗ Education prioritization and related aid mapping, and financing framework components of the RRF. ◗ Affordable housing program in urban areas 33 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK Concept notes that are expected to be funded through familiar donor channels will be fur- ther developed by participating FGS/FMS MDAs, supported as appropriate by interested devel- opment partner(s)17 . Those programs and con- stituent projects that seek funding from one of the SDRF trust funds would be fast-tracked through the SDRF review and approval process . Concept notes for nationally relevant pro- grams that have the potential for the kind of blended financing described in the RRF finance strategy will be carried forward by the MoPIED Investment Department in collaboration with interested development partners . Such pro- grams, which in the RRF context could include low-cost urban housing and health and educa- tion service provision, would be developed with the explicit aim of drawing in private investment financing as a complement to Government and/ or donor funding . The relevant PWGs would be kept informed of progress made . Monitoring and eventual evaluation of the implementation of recovery and resilience pro- gramming developed in this fashion will be ◗ Employment and skills development undertaken by the MoPIED M&E Department . As noted, the intention is not to create a sep- ◗ Livelihoods and economic recovery arate, stand-alone RRF M&E framework, but to integrate RRF results indicators (currently under ◗ Renewable energy, including solar and wind preparation) within the NDP results framework . ◗ Ports, jetties and fisheries 6.3 Roles and Responsibilities The concept notes will be submitted to, and reviewed on behalf of, the NDC by the RRF Given the foregoing general description of the Taskforce, which will ensure process consis- proposed RRF institutional arrangement, the tency, coherence and equity . following offers a more detailed breakdown of roles and responsibilities . With RRF Taskforce approval, the concept notes will be shared with the relevant PWG by the The RRF Taskforce MoPIED Planning and Economic Development Directorate and, as appropriate, integrated The responsibilities of the RRF Taskforce of the within the PWG work plan . NDC will include: 17 As appropriate, these concept notes will be incorporated into FMS development plans . 34 INSTITUTIoNAL ARRANGEMENTS ◗ Providing strategic oversight and direction implementation arrangements and will be for drought recovery and resilience; responsible for the following: ◗ Coordinating and validating policy develop- ◗ Maintaining a current inventory of RRF pro- ment; grams and projects being rolled out either nationally or by FMSs; ◗ Supporting the uptake and roll out by FGS and FMS planning ministries and MDAs of ◗ Coordinating the ongoing assessment and the RRF; prioritization of recovery and resilience needs; ◗ Identifying and approving RRF programs or projects; ◗ Using the output of FGS aid tracking, map recovery and resilience needs against ongo- ◗ Coordinating inter-governmental and inter- ing and planned humanitarian and develop- ministerial dialogue on near-term disaster ment programming; recovery and resilience; ◗ Maintain an updated understanding of: (a) ◗ Overseeing the implementation of the RRF Somalia’s recovery and resilience needs and of monitoring and evaluation framework . the high priority interventions identified by the RRF prioritization and phasing process; and (b) The RRF Taskforce will be accountable to the NDC, Somalia’s development partners’ current fund- and chaired by the MoPIED Director of Planning ing and financing policies and decisions; and Economic Development . It will consist of the Directors General of the FMS planning departments, ◗ Focusing the SDRF and PWGs, FGS/FMS MDAs and may additionally include, as appropriate: and the MoPIED Investment Department on urgent and high priority recovery and ◗ Permanent Secretaries or Directors General resilience interventions to ensure progress in of FGS MDAs engaged with the RRF, including building resilience; the Ministries of Humanitarian Affairs and Women and Human Rights Development; ◗ Compiling and presenting concept notes to the RRF Taskforce for review and approval; ◗ A representative of the private sector; ◗ Liaising closely with SDRF PWGs to ensure ◗ A representative of civil society; integration of relevant concepts into the appropriate PWG work plans; ◗ A representative of Somalia’s women’s move- ment; ◗ Liaising closely with the MoPIED Investment Department on the development of con- ◗ Others that the chair may find relevant to cepts being tracked for blended finance co-opt for RRF program implementation, approaches; review and consolidation . ◗ Reporting regularly to the PWGs on prog- The MoPIED Planning and Economic ress being made by the MoPIED Investment Development Directorate Department; The MoPIED Planning and Economic Development Liaising closely with the SDRF PWGs and ACU to Directorate is, in effect, the coordinator of these ensure that RRF interventions are coordinated 35 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK with other recovery and development program- based on good-practice public investment ming in Somalia, and to fast track RRF interven- management . tions targeting funding from one of the SDRF trust funds . The MoPIED M&E Department The MoPIED Investment Department The M&E Department will have the following responsibilities: A strengthened MoPIED Investment Department will have the following responsibilities: ◗ Support and advise on the further develop- ment of the RRF results framework; ◗ Maintain an updated understanding of: (a) Somalia’s recovery and resilience needs ◗ Ensure the RRF results framework is appro- and of the high priority interventions iden- priately aligned and integrated within the tified by the RRF prioritization and phasing NDP M&E strategy; process; (b) Somalia’s development part- ners’ current funding and financing policies ◗ Support the incremental rolling out of RRF and decisions; and (c) current private sector results indicator monitoring; investment in Somalia ◗ In consultation with the MoPIED Planning ◗ In liaison with development partners, FMS and Economic Development Directorate, planning ministries and appropriate FGS report quarterly to the SDRF SC on progress technical ministries, lead the identifica- being made towards RRF results targets; tion and development of concept notes for large-scale, nationally relevant programs, ◗ In pursuit of these responsibilities, to liaise based on RRF high priority sector interven- closely with the MoPIED Planning and tions, that are suitable for the development Economic Development Directorate, FMS of blended finance approaches planning ministries and the SDRF PWGs . ◗ Convene and consult with sectoral experts and stakeholders in the area of proposed 6.4 Cost of operationalisation investment focus—including all relevant par- ties: line ministries, technical experts, donors, In addition to the cost of addressing Somalia’s the private sector, insurance schemes, etc . unmet recovery and resilience needs, operation- alisation of the RRF through the proposed insti- ◗ In collaboration with relevant development tutional arrangements will itself require funding . partners and FGS/FMS MDAs, lead the iter- This additional funding need is acknowledged, ative process of large-scale program devel- but at the time of report preparation its amount opment using blended finance approaches, has yet to be estimated . 36 INSTITUTIoNAL ARRANGEMENTS 37 07 N Ex T S T EP S 7.1 Prioritization and Phasing and future Government and development part- ner funding of and investment in recovery and The output of the prioritization and phasing resilience. Some of the shortfall identified will process is a set of 246 high priority sector inter- be large-scale programs addressing national ventions, phased over the short and medium-to- priorities that will be led and implemented by long term . These will be carried forward by the the FGS . Other parts will be sub-programs to proposed institutional arrangements and fur- be implemented by FMSs but rolled up into ther programmed in relation to potential inter- FGS-supervised national programs . Others still est from donors and sources of investment will be stand-alone projects, to be implemented financing. by one or more FMSs or by the FGS . Specifically, this will entail action at a number of Institutionalization of the needs assessment levels . methodology: Reflecting recent floods in parts of Somalia: It can be expected that Somalia will continue to be subject to cycles of drought, punctuated by The output of the prioritization process will need flooding along the Jubba and Shabelle rivers. to be reviewed and, as appropriate, adjusted to Notwithstanding the outcome of this RRF, which reflect the recent flood needs assessment con- is expected to be Somalia’s recovery from the ducted in 26 affected districts in Hirshabelle, last drought, and an increased national capacity South West State and Jubbaland . to mitigate and withstand the impacts of future droughts, impact needs assessments will almost Further analysis and consultation certainly be called for again in the future . The high priority sector interventions and Therefore, steps need to be taken to establish national-level priorities will be subject to fur- the practice of impact assessment within Federal ther analysis and consultation . Drawing on and State level government and, as appropriate, Somalia’s existing aid tracking system, the out- to codify that practice in national policy . put will then be mapped against ongoing and planned humanitarian and recovery/develop- Preparing for the next National ment programming, revealing Somalia’s cur- Development Plan: rently unmet recovery and resilience needs (see

Annex 2 on aid mapping) . This “shortfall”, which The RRF can be regarded as a constituent frame- will be determined annually, will guide current work within the current National Development 39 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK Plan (2017-2019) (NDP) . A participatory and bot- ◗◗Focus on right-financing investments that tom-up up prioritization and phasing of needs accelerate durable growth, revenues and based on a participatory and inclusive planning employment generation to recovery and methodology is at its core . resilience services. In addition to traditional financing, moving towards smart systems As the Government starts to prepare for a new and smart financing is essential for Soma- NDP cycle, its thoughts will turn to the ques- lia, implying an even greater need to prior- tion of how best to make its planning process itize investments that accelerate growth, compliant with the demands of the PRSP pro- revenues and employment . It is critical to cess, which is to be prepared by the World Bank lay the foundation for more innovative mod- as a step towards the clearing of national debt els of engagement, including the move from arrears . The RRF’s prioritization and phasing ‘creating an enabling environment for the methodology is available to the government in private sector’ to actively ‘engaging the pri- this regard, and both its output and the process vate sector’ . This implies moving from a itself is expected to form the preparation of the ‘spending’ based approach to an increas- next NDP . ingly ‘investment’ based approach, particu- larly in areas not classified as public goods. Doing so, however, demands new skills sets 7.2 Financing Framework to be put in place; re-skilling of established systems; and developing an enabling institu- Detailed stakeholder consultation, including tional and policy environment; and requires market testing on new blended finance mod- the introduction of economic rate of return els, will determine when and how to advance and employment multiplier work, which is beyond concept development stage . More- currently lacking . While the maturation of a over, linked to the institutional and M&E frame- smart financing environment will take time, work, the financing framework aims to continue the RRF process can help demonstrate the traditional financing, and optimize financing added value of a diversified and innovative approaches to maximize investment returns to financing approach; thus, influencing the RRF objectives . next generation of NDP . The following next steps must be undertaken to ◗◗Complement traditional investments by meet the objectives established: formulating anchor projects with blended finance in mind. Although traditional financ- ◗◗Leverage coordination mechanisms . Tra- ing will provide the greatest contribution to ditional and non-traditional RRF financ- the RRF, the grant-based support must be ing will be channeled through proposed increasingly balanced with blended finance. and existing coordination mechanisms to Blended finance allows new capital flows to support the financing transition outlined be mobilized, providing additional invest- above. The financing framework is fully ment to national development . Moreover, integrated into national public expenditure given that the vast majority of services are management and aid coordination sys- provided by the private sector anyway, there tems . As a result, optimizing the SDRF and is huge scope for channeling new financial Pillar Working Group structures to sharpen flows into models that provide services at investment identification and process an affordable price. Expanding access to ser- management is critical to systematically vices while generating employment is crit- introduce the concept of right-financing ical, in both low and high potential areas . across the RRF portfolio . Using money that is not looking for a return, 40 NExT STEPS to kick-start a return based structure can be rolled out for many sectors of the economy . However, as blended finance deals are more complex than grant based giving, Somalia must prioritize models that have ‘lower deal friction’ . ◗◗Transition to greater private financing where possible and desirable over time. The effort outlined in this financing frame- work aims to provide a practical approach to strengthening existing systems while lay- ing the foundation for new resources that have so far not been mobilized to drive growth and resilience efforts in Somalia. Striving for a mix of 90 percent grants and 10 percent blended finance in early high priority investments would illustrate such a commitment, though demand consider- able work to be established . Such a transi- tion would overcome: (i) low returns for the level of risk; (ii) improve market inefficien- cies; (iii) strengthen the national investment climate; and (iv) build core competencies around better systems . For this to happen, local context. It is “unified” in the sense that the investment framework in Somalia needs it provides a systemic view over each of the to be upgraded, to include PPP policy and steps of the public investment cycle, ensur- regulatory standards, and economic rate ing there are no loopholes that can affect the of return (ERR) and employment multiplier quality of spending . The eight features pro- analysis . A SWOT analysis of various recovery vide a degree of assurance that there are no financing options is under development. systemic gaps that would enable wasteful or corrupt decisions . They are considered to be ◗◗Set up a public investment management “must-have” features, not with the intention system . In carrying forward the idea of of establishing a gold standard, but to pro- large-scale programs using blended finance vide a logical and internally consistent sys- approaches, the required level of perfor- tem that even a low-capacity country should mance from a public investment manage- try to follow to establish basic disciplines for ment (PIM) system for the RRF needs to project selection and management . be ensured . To this end, a unified frame- work public investment management system, for public-private partnership and other 7.3 M&E more innovative financing and implemen- tation arrangements, will adopt the eight The following actions are established for the good-practice “must haves”18 that fit Somalia’s development of the M&E Framework 18 The World Bank . 2010 . A Diagnostic Framework for Assessing Public Investment Management . 41 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK procedures and/or an operation manual . This includes considering factors such as the availability of data and the relative ease of operationalizing a reliable and sustainable data supply mechanism for the respective indicators . ◗◗Conduct a capacity assessment (strengths, weaknesses, gaps) of the RRF information management system to improve physical and financial progress monitoring and reporting. This assessment is meant to inform consid- eration of in-house versus outsourced oper- ationalization of elements of the results framework . ◗◗Engage project implementers to utilize the RRF results monitoring system, including capacity building and establishing clearly defined roles and responsibilities to sustain use . Stage 2: Operationalization of the Central Results Framework and Monitoring System ◗◗Roll out the results framework and Results Stage 1: Development, Refinement and Finalization Monitoring System, including data collection of RRF’s Central Results Framework and Results in respect of selected quantitative and qual- Monitoring System (RMS) itative indicators, desk reviews of existing information, and progressive indicator value ◗◗Finalize the rationalization and refine- determination, as well as sample-based field ment of the federal RRF results framework, surveys and qualitative assessments . including the Somalia Development and Reconstruction Facility (SDRF), and its constit- ◗◗Develop automated and customized perfor- uent system of pillar working groups (PWGs) mance reporting templates to internal and and Joint Management Team (JMT) endorse- external sources through the RMS . ment . ◗◗Conduct progressive review and enhance- ◗◗Set up a result monitoring system that lays ment of the information management sys- out targets, baseline, means of verification, tem (strengths, weaknesses, gaps) . and roles and responsibilities for the pro- posed RRF results framework . Stage 3: Development and Operationalization of Interfaces between Central and Project Result ◗◗Develop tools and methodologies for data Frameworks collection, reporting, quality assurance, and indicator value determination, includ- ◗◗Map project-level results frameworks (inter- ing the development of standard operating mediate outcome, outputs, indicators) to 42 NExT STEPS state RRF results frameworks (mirroring The NDC to constitute the RRF Taskforce the federal RRF) and the federal RRF results framework, identifying areas of alignment An urgent requirement is for the proposed RRF and link-up Taskforce to be constituted by the NDC, and for the Taskforce to quickly establish the practice of ◗◗Develop platforms to allow stakeholders to regular and well-managed meetings and effec- interface with the central RRF M&E results tive follow-up action . framework (federal) and project-level M&E results framework (state and federal), includ- Strengthening the MoPIED structures ing automated and customized performance needed to support RRF implementation reporting templates to internal and exter- nal sources (e .g ., dashboards) . This includes Although the RRF will be implemented through assessing options for interoperability with existing SDRF, MoPIED and NDC structures, the existing platform, consideration of user steps will need to be taken quickly by MoPIED to needs, and incorporating map-based func- ensure the Planning and Economic Development tionalities using Geographic Information Directorate and the Investment Department are Systems . both properly equipped for their planned roles . Capacity needs assessment 7.4 Institutional Arrangements The RRF recognizes that the proposed institu- The proposed institutional arrangements will tional arrangements will require institutional, require a number of steps to be taken quickly, to regulatory and human capacity development . build on the momentum generated by the pri- An urgent early requirement, therefore, will be oritization and phasing process, and to ensure to conduct a capacity needs assessment of the that the benefits of the RRF are fully realized. NDC and the MoPIED Planning and Economic Development Directorate and Department of Ensure strong horizontal and vertical Investment . coordination and consultation across the FGS and with FMS A part of this assessment will include a mapping of the “must have” processes within MoPIED and The RRF identifies the MoPIED as being the FMS planning departments that underpin the lead agency within the FGS, which is appropri- proposed system of investment management . ate given the prominence of planning and coor- dination in creating the enabling environment Implementation planning and roll out needed for effective recovery and resilience programming by Government and its develop- In response to the results of the capacity needs ment partners . However, full implementation assessment, a costed RRF implementation plan of the RRF—meaning Government and devel- will be prepared and resourced . With resourcing, opment partners acting on the RRF’s high prior- technical assistance and other capacity building ity sector interventions; the effective matching measures will be deployed, initially within the of these with available funding and finance; the MoPIED Planning and Economic Development monitoring of RRF results; and the evaluation of Directorate and Investment Department and, its impact—will require strong intergovernmen- as appropriate and feasible, to relevant FGS and tal coordination at all levels . FMS MDAs . 43 ANNE x 1 : AL IGN M EN T O F P RIO R ITIZ ATIO N I N D I C ATO R S AND R R F STR ATEG I C O BJ EC T I V ES (Scoring based on 1–10 Scale) Recovery and Resilience Framework Strategic Objectives Indicator Indicators/Criteria for Prioritization SO 1 SO 2 SO 3 SO 4 SO 5 Total Score Weights Spatial Coverage Rehabilitates and expands basic services and physical infrastructure and economic assets (major economic 6 7 7 6 7 33 7 assets—agriculture, livestock and fisheries) of drought affected areas Improves basic service accesses and economic opportunities and natural resource management 3 7 7 8 8 33 7 (livelihoods, employment and business) in drought impacted areas Beneficiary Coverage Targets drought and conflict affected people (in an 7 9 10 7 9 42 9 equitable and inclusive manner) Targets poor households, and marginalized groups including disadvantaged minorities and clans/lineages, 4 6 10 2 6 28 6 and extremely vulnerable social classes such as women, female-headed households and children. Strategic Alignments Aligns with Somalia National Development 7 9 7 5 5 33 7 Plan Priorities Contributes to the recovery and resilience building 10 10 10 10 10 50 11 General indicators Promotes resilience to future drought and other natural 10 10 10 10 10 50 11 shocks, and encourages build back better practices Enhances food security 7 10 10 10 10 47 10 Promotes development of traditional livelihood activities 7 7 8 6 7 35 8 and diversification of economic opportunities (continued on next page) 45 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK (continued) Recovery and Resilience Framework Strategic Objectives Indicator Indicators/Criteria for Prioritization SO 1 SO 2 SO 3 SO 4 SO 5 Total Score Weights Promotes sustainable management of natural resources 5 8 5 10 5 33 7 and improves resource access of local communities Improves the delivery and access of basic services 9 2 7 6 10 34 8 and infrastructure in urban areas Promotes institutional capacities to design and implement RR programs at all levels of governments, 10 2 8 7 7 34 8 including local communities 46 ANNE x 2 : SP EC IA L N OT E O N A I D M APPI N G A n analysis of the January 2018 Aid example inclusive politics, security and rule Flows database was undertaken to of law . inform the development of the RRF. The quality of the analysis was constrained 2 . 90 percent of the supportive project dis- by the need to use data that was already sev- bursements in 2018 could be directly aligned eral months old at the time of the analysis in with a specific RRF sector. The remaining 10 May 2018 . The incomplete nature of the data- percent were supportive of the RRF, but not base also made it hard to draw conclusions directly aligned . A decision was taken early in about potential gaps—a number of projects the prioritization of the DINA, not to priori- known by the analysts to be ongoing were not tize across sectors . Therefore, the aid map- included in the data—in some cases because ping analysis cannot be used to determine no 2018 disbursements were listed, in others whether any particular sector is suffering because they were entirely missing from the from under-investment . data . Furthermore, information in the database is collected from partners voluntarily (so will 3 . Nearly all RRF-aligned projects were rele- always be incomplete as some partners select vant to more than one RRF sector or more not to participate, and humanitarian actors par- than one RRF Strategic Objective . For ticipate in a separate system), and it does not the purposes of this analysis they were include bilateral support to the FGS or govern- assigned to the RRF sector or objective ment-funded projects . that was closest to the stated goals of the project . For example, a project that aims The findings relevant to the RRF are pre- to create jobs in fisheries was allocated to sented below: “employment” as the primary objective . A project that aims to expand fish exports, 1 . Over half (51 percent) of programs and proj- though creating employment was allo- ect disbursements for 2018 reported in the cated to “fisheries”. aid mapping as active were clearly support- ive of the RRF strategic objectives and sec- 4 . The aid mapping analysis does not provide tors—representing USD 347 million of USD a technical funding gap analysis, as such an 682 million in 2018 . Many of the ongoing exercise requires determining financial bud- projects that were not assessed as directly getary allocations by the government and supportive of the RRF were in areas impor- stakeholder commitments towards drought tant to the NDP but outside of the RRF, for recovery . 47 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK Moving forward, the objective will be to generate increasingly accurate analysis of ongoing projects that can be used to inform decisions about allocation of funds and to identify gaps and overlaps. This analysis will be required by the NDP Coordination Unit, the Investment Promotion Unit, the National Development Council (and its RRF Taskforce), and the Somali Development and Reconstruction Facility (and its Pillar Working Groups) . 48 ANNE x 3: DR AF T R R F R ES U LT S FRA M E WO RK AGRICULTURE Alignment with SDG #: 4-Ending Hunger / 8-Economic Growth & Decent Work / 14-Life on Land / 9-Industry & Infrastructure Alignment with NDP #: 1–3 Agriculture / Livestock 1–3 / Fisheries 1, 3, 4 / Infrastructure 2 Objective 2: Recovered and resilient economic sectors, livelihoods, and key infrastructure Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Increased agricultural Area of land under rain-fed agriculture productivity Area of land under irrigated cultivation Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Improved access to agricultural Number of producers with access to extension inputs services Number of producers with access to agricultural kits (drought resistant seeds) Number of extension service agents trained Number of producers trained in farm management Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Improved access to agricultural Number of irrigation facilities rehabilitated service delivery infrastructure Number of storage facilities rehabilitated km of market roads repaired Number of markets reconstructed Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Advanced agricultural policy and institutional enabling Number of regions with extension service plans environment (continued on next page) 49 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK AGRICULTURE (continued) Alignment with SDG #: 4-Ending Hunger / 8-Economic Growth & Decent Work / 14-Life on Land / 9-Industry & Infrastructure Alignment with NDP #: 1–3 Agriculture / Livestock 1–3 / Fisheries 1, 3, 4 / Infrastructure 2 Objective 2: Recovered and resilient economic sectors, livelihoods, and key infrastructure Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Number of watershed management plans Number of producer networks, groups, associations or cooperatives Ouctome 2 Outcome 2 Indicator Increased livestock productivity Annual livestock value Restored livestock herd is more resilient Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Improved access to livestock Number of livestock health kits delivered inputs Number of producers with access to extension services Number of producers trained in livestock management Number of livestock restocked Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Improved access to livestock Number of feed stores constructed or infrastructure rehabilitated Number of water points constructed or rehabilitated Number of diagnostic facilities rehabilitated or constructed Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Advanced livestock policy Number of strategies for private investment in and institutional enabling livestock environment Number of strategies for public-private partnerships for veterinary service providers Number of producer networks, groups, associations or cooperatives (continued on next page) 50 A N N E X 3 : P R O P O S E D R R F R E S U LT S F R A M E W O R K AGRICULTURE (continued) Alignment with SDG #: 4-Ending Hunger / 8-Economic Growth & Decent Work / 14-Life on Land / 9-Industry & Infrastructure Alignment with NDP #: 1–3 Agriculture / Livestock 1–3 / Fisheries 1, 3, 4 / Infrastructure 2 Objective 2: Recovered and resilient economic sectors, livelihoods, and key infrastructure Target Data Outcome 3 Outcome 3 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Increased fishery productivity Value of fish caught in Somalia Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Improved access to fishery Number of fishing kits delivered inputs Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Improved access to fishery Number of fish landing sites rehabilitated or infrastructure constructed Number of spate-fed desert aquaculture Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Advanced fishery policy and institutional enabling Number of fisheries management plans environment Number of producer networks, groups, associations or cooperatives 51 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK WASH Alignment with SDG #: 6-Clean Water & Sanitation Alignment with NDP #: 1–2 WASH Objective 5:Increased service delivery within affected urban areas Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Increased access to clean water Number of people with access to clean water and sanitation services Number of people with access to sanitation services Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Improved access to WASH Number of people trained in WASH inputs Number of people with access to WASH kits Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Improved access to basic Number of rehabilitated or constructed water service delivery infrastructure facilities Number of rehabilitated or reconstructed sewage facilities Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Advanced WASH policy Number of communities with water and institutional enabling management plans environment Number of communities with waste management plans Number of states with policies for public- private partnerships Number of communities with water committees or boards 52 A N N E X 3 : P R O P O S E D R R F R E S U LT S F R A M E W O R K NUTRITION Alignment with SDG #: 2-End Hunger and Improved Nutrition and 3-Healthy Lives and Well-Being Alignment with NDP #: Objective 3: Advanced durable solutions and recovery for previously displaced and affected communities Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Enhanced nutritional status of Percentage of children with acute malnutrition drought affected population under 5 Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Number of community health workers trained Improved access to nutritional to deliver nutrition services (e.g., disease inputs surveillance, deworming, cholera treatment) Number of medical kits delivered to health workers or PHCs Number of nutritional or supplemental kits delivered to households Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Improved access to basic service Number of rehabilitated PHCs delivery infrastructure Number of mobile clinics offering nutrition services Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Advanced nutrition policy Number of states with guidelines for the and institutional enabling provision of nutritional services environment Number of states with a comprehensive nutrition services delivery plans 53 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK EDUCATION Alignment with SDG #: 4-Quality Education for All Alignment with NDP #: 1–2 Education Objective 3: Advanced durable solutions and recovery for previously displaced and affected communities Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Enhanced educational Number of previously displaced school aged attainment of school aged children enrolled in school children Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Improved access to educational Number of school age population with access inputs to learning spaces Number of school age population who receive cash transfer scholarships Number of learning material kits Number of teachers recruited Number of teachers trained/certified according to national standards Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Improved access to educational Number of schools rehabilitated service delivery infrastructure Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Advanced education policy Number of community education committees and institutional enabling environment Number of child clubs Number of states with education recovery strategies TRANSPORT Alignment with SDG #: 9-Industry & Infrastructure Alignment with NDP #: 2-Infrastructure Objective 2:Recovered and resilient economic sectors, livelihoods, and key infrastructure Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Improved access to markets by Estimated population in catchment areas of drought affected population roads repaired through the RRF Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Improved road infrastructure kMs of road constructed or rehabilitated 54 A N N E X 3 : P R O P O S E D R R F R E S U LT S F R A M E W O R K ENVIRONMENT, CLEAN ENERGY, NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Alignment with SDG #: 15-Life on Land Alignment with NDP #: 10–11 Resilience Objective 4: Sustainable management of environment services and enhanced access to renewable energy Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicators Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source The reversal of drought-related The increase in vegetation cover monitored vegetation loss and soil erosion (remotely) in sample areas for each climate zone Increase in land area benefiting from improved watershed management practices Output 1 Output 1 Indicators Improved land use practices Area of rangeland reseeded or naturally recovered through fallow Number of drought-damaged trees and shrubs replaced Number of gully erosion control schemes Number of farmers practicing evergreen agriculture and ISFM (integrated soil fertility management) Number of improved, energy-efficient charcoal kilns to have replaced older or traditional kilns Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Strengthened government Number of government personnel trained capacity to support land in land use management and related GIS improvement techniques Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Stronger legal, policy Legislation to support zoning of wildlife parks and technical instruments and migratory corridors supporting effective land use Outcome 2 Outcome 2 Indicators Baseline Target A greater portion of Somalia’s Total kWH generated by solar energy plants energy needs met from cleaner or renewable sources Total KWH generated by wind turbines National consumption of LPG Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Stronger legal, policy and Policy on biomass energy technical instruments supporting effective development of clean or renewable energy sources National power master plan Cross-border electrification and interconnector study 55 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK HEALTH Alignment with SDG #: 3-Healthy Lives & Well Being Alignment with NDP #: 2-Health Objective 5:Increased service delivery for affected urban areas Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Enhanced access to essential Under 5 mortality rate health services Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Stronger health service Number of fixed clinics/hospitals providing infrastructure primary or secondary health care Number of fixed primary health care centers or clinics Number of Districts served by mobile health clinics Number of District and Regional health centers with prepositioned medical supplies and kits Number of AWD/cholera treatment centers per region Number of District and Regional health centers with emergency response services Number of Districts with access to child and pregnant women immunization services Output 2 Output 2 Indicator More people with knowledge of Number of people reached by health and health, sanitation and hygiene WASH extension services (including food related behaviors safety) The number of community-level public health committees Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Greater health service delivery Number of health care personnel employed capacity (by government and private providers) Policy standardizing methods to be used for the rapid diagnosis of common communicable diseases Number of Districts and Regions providing usable input to a federal health information early warning system Number of Districts and Regions providing usable input to a federal health information system 56 A N N E X 3 : P R O P O S E D R R F R E S U LT S F R A M E W O R K FOOD SECURITY & LIVELIHOODS Alignment with SDG #: 2-Zero Hunger / 8-Decent Work & Economic Growth Alignment with NDP #: 1-Labor & Employment Objective 2: Recovered and resilient economic sectors, livelihoods, and key infrastructure Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Enhanced food security Number of people in poverty Unemployment rate Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Strengthened household food Number of households trained in food storage security capacity Number of households in early warning catchment areas Number of livelihoods supported through cash programming Number of alternative livelihoods supported Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Strengthened government Number of government institutions with labor capacity to support food market information systems security Number of FGS and Federal State government staff trained to coordinate food security and livelihoods sector National food security strategy and policy National poverty reduction resilience strategy 57 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK SOCIAL PROTECTION Alignment with SDG #: 5-Gender Equality / 10-Reduced Inequalities Alignment with NDP #: Objective 3:Advanced durable solutions and recovery for previously displaced and affected communities Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Enhanced resilience of Percentage of poverty incidence of former vulnerable populations IDPs that are female Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Stronger social protection Number of government staff trained in social TBD TBD service provision protection Number of vulnerable people receiving TBD TBD livelihoods training Percentage of government spending on social TBD TBD protection services Number of vulnerable people receiving life TBD TBD skills training Number of vulnerable people receiving in- TBD TBD kind or cash support for livelihood Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Greater policy enabling Agreed policy and operational framework for environment for protection social protection TBD TBD service delivery 58 A N N E X 3 : P R O P O S E D R R F R E S U LT S F R A M E W O R K GENDER Alignment with SDG #: 5-Gender Equality Alignment with NDP #: 1, 5 Gender Objective 2:Recovered and resilient economic sectors, livelihoods, and key infrastructure Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Advanced gender-specific Number of women in the labor force recovery needs Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Enhanced access to gender- Number of women trained in livelihoods / skills TBD TBD specific recovery inputs enhancement Number of women with access to cash TBD TBD programming Number of women with access to productive TBD TBD assets (e.g., land) Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Strengthened institutional Number of government staff trained in SGBv capacity to support gender- TBD TBD specific recovery needs Number of comprehensive mechanisms put in place to address gender-specific recovery TBD needs The number of community-level women groups TBD TBD developed Number of relevant laws, policies, strategies formulated and adopted for gender TBD mainstreaming 59 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK GOVERNANCE Alignment with SDG #: 16-Peace, Justice & Strong Institutions Alignment with NDP #: 1-Institutions Objective 1: Strengthened government capacities for inclusive recovery and disaster risk management planning, implementation, and monitoring Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Enhanced governance for Global Governance Index recovery Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Government has strengthened Number of government staff trained in capacity to effectively manage recovery processes recovery processes Number of state recovery plans Number of relevant laws, policies, strategies formulated and adopted for public sector institutions Number of state-level operational grievance redress mechanisms established Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Communities are empowered Number of recovery-focused community to engage with government platforms established Number of needs assessments conducted through recovery-focused community platforms Number of initiatives implemented by recovery-focused community platforms 60 A N N E X 3 : P R O P O S E D R R F R E S U LT S F R A M E W O R K DISPLACEMENT Alignment with SDG #: 1 Ending Poverty; 11-Sustainable Cities Alignment with NDP #: 6-Resilience Objective 3:Advanced durable solutions and recovery for previously displaced and affected communities Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Address the urgent recovery Number of former IDPs in poverty needs of displaced people Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Greater service delivery Number of former IDPs with access to WASH TBD TBD capacity targeting former IDPs Number of former IDPs with access to TBD TBD education Number of former IDPs with access to livelihoods Number of former IDPs with access to health TBD TBD care Number of former IDPs benefiting from TBD TBD psychosocial support Output 2 Output 3 Indicator Greater government capacity Number of government staff trained to support to support durable recovery IDP recovery TBD TBD solutions for IDPs Federal policy on internal displacement and TBD TBD reintegration Number of Districts and Regions providing usable input to a federal IDP information TBD TBD system 61 SOMALIA RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Alignment with SDG #: 11 Sustainable Cities Alignment with NDP #: 3-Resilience Objective 1:Strengthened government capacities for inclusive recovery and disaster risk management planning, implementation, and monitoring Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Reduced exposure to disaster Economic loss from natural disasters risk Number of deaths from natural disasters Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Greater DRM capacity Number of government staff trained in DRM TBD TBD Output 2 Output 2 Indicator Improved access to DRM Number of emergency control rooms TBD TBD structures Number of communities with pre-positioned emergency supplies Number of regional emergency communication systems (linked nationally) Output 3 Output 3 Indicator Stronger policy instruments Agreed coordination framework for DRM TBD TBD supporting DRM Number of Districts and Regions providing usable input to a DRM information / early TBD TBD warning system National and regional DRM policy Number of national and regional disaster management organizations or centers established and functional 62 A N N E X 3 : P R O P O S E D R R F R E S U LT S F R A M E W O R K MACROECONOMIC IMPACT Alignment with SDG #: 1-Ending Poverty / 8-Decent Work & Economic Growth / 17-Partnerships Alignment with NDP #: 1-Macroeconomic / 6-Infrastructure Objective: Recovered and resilient economic sectors, livelihoods, and key infrastructure Target Data Outcome 1 Outcome 1 Indicator Baseline Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Source Enhanced economic recovery Annual investment growth rate Output 1 Output 1 Indicator Improved access to financial Percentage of population using internet TBD TBD services Amount of mobile money for drought response TBD TBD Number of businesses with access to micro- TBD TBD finance credit Number of central bank staff trained on financial licensing Output 2 Output 3 Indicator Advanced policy and Number of relevant laws, policies, regulations, institutional enabling strategies formulated and adopted for the TBD TBD private sector National ID system TBD TBD 63