Solomon Islands Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy

4.1 Energy sector������������������������������������������������������������26 2.12 > Generation capacity�����������������������������������������������������29 Context

4.2 Transport sector�������������������������������������������������������31

2.1 Purpose of Solomon Islands LEDS����������������������12 > Domestic application��������������������������������������������������12 4.3 Forestry and land use����������������������������������������������35 > International cooperation����������������������������������������12 4.4 Agriculture ����������������������������������������������������������������38

4.5 Livestock �������������������������������������������������������������������39

2.2 Solomon Islands national circumstances�����������13

4.6 Waste sector�������������������������������������������������������������40 > Geographical profile����������������������������������������������������13 > Climate profile����������������������������������������������������������������13 4.7 Vulnerability and resilience to climate change impacts���������������������������������������������������������42 > Population profile���������������������������������������������������������14

4.8 Enabling institutions: Strengthen policy and > Economic profile�����������������������������������������������������������15 administration through consolidated forest > Government structure�����������������������������������������������15 protection and climate policy �������������������������������43 > Case study of concentrating government 3.16 resources: �������������������������������������������������������������������������45 Emissions pathways to 2050 > Consultation through the LEDS development process��������������������������������������������������������������������������������46

3.1 Emissions drivers ����������������������������������������������������16

3.2 Business As Usual (BAU) emissions pathway���18 4.9 Enabling institutions: Carbon markets����������������46 > Energy sector�����������������������������������������������������������������18

4.10 Enabling institutions: Financing����������������������������48 > Livestock sector������������������������������������������������������������20

4.11 Enabling institutions: Data management������������51 > Agriculture forestry and land use�������������������������21 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) > Waste sector�������������������������������������������������������������������21 > BAU total emissions and net emissions.�����������22 5.52 Summary of steps towards Solomon Islands

3.3 Low emissions development pathway ���������������23 low emissions, equitable and resilient > Low emissions pathway total and net pathway emissions��������������������������������������������������������������������������23 Appendix 1. Solomon Islands Forest Industry: Capturing greater value from lower volumes�������������������������������������������������56 Appendix 2. Implementation of enabling institutions ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������59 Appendix 3. Additional data��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������61 4 List of Tables Table 1. Summary of steps identified to transition Table 9. Fuel efficiency of representative vehicle Solomon Islands to a low emissions, stock used in this study���������������������������������� 32 equitable growth and resilient pathway�������������������������������������������������10 Table 10. Transport demand per capita used in the projections of transport demand��������������� 32 Table 2. Emissions reductions commitments contained in Solomon Islands 2021 Table 11. Comparison of BAU pathway and long- Nationally Determined Contributions�����13 term LEDS pathway to meet the needs of improving climate finance access for Table 3. Where population and economy act as Solomon Islands, as identified in the 2022 underlying drivers of demand growth in Roadmap �������������������������������������������������������������� 49 the emissions pathways developed for Solomon Islands LEDS��������������������������������������16 Table 12. Summary of steps identified to transition Solomon Islands to a low Table 4. National population annual growth rates emissions, equitable growth and for decade periods to 2050 �����������������������������7 resilient pathway����������������������������������������������� 54 Table 5. Electricity access rates in the BAU Table A3.1. Electrification rate in the emissions pathway ���������������������������������������������18 LEDS pathway���������������������������������������������������� 61 Table 6. Commercial and industrial energy Table A3.2. Solar and Hydropower combined intensities used in the BAU pathway���������18 generation capacity by province in LEDS pathway ��������������������������������������������������� 61 Table 7. Solomon Islands Government electricity access and renewable energy targets�������27 Table A3.3. Transport demand in the BAU and LEDS pathways���������������������������������������������������������������� 62 Table 8. Energy intensity of commercial, industrial, and government sectors����������������������������������27 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) © GGGI 5 List of Figures Figure 1. Population distribution by province, as Figure 11. Composition of Solomon Islands emissions used in Solomon Islands LEDS (Source: in the low emissions development Solomon Islands National Statistics Office pathway �������������������������������������������������������������������24 2019 Census Provisional Results)��������������14 Figure 12. The BAU and low emissions Figure 2. Solomon Islands population and GDP development pathways for forestry projections to 2050 used in developing removals and the net emissions the BAU and low emissions development including forestry removals���������������������������24 pathways (sources: SINSO, SPC Statistical Division, World Bank Statistics, author Figure 13. Household average electricity demand calculations)�����������������������������������������������������������17 estimates from Solomon Islands and abroad ����������������������������������������������������������������������28 Figure 3. BAU energy demand�����������������������������������������19 Figure 14. Estimated generation capacity to 2050 Figure 4. BAU GHG emissions in CO2-equivalent. under the BAU and low emissions The commencement of Tina River pathways ����������������������������������������������������������������29 Hydropower Plant in 2028 reduces the national emissions from electricity Figure 15. Annual GHG emissions from energy generation�����������������������������������������������������������������9 sector in the low emissions pathway���������31 Figure 5. BAU pollutant emissions in PM2.5�������������20 Figure 16. Demand projection for land transport������33 Figure 6. Solomon Islands livestock herd size Figure 17. Demand projection for sea transport�������33 projections to 2050. Data up to 2018 are the estimates used in previous Figure 18. Emissions from the transport sector in the greenhouse gas inventory calculations����20 low emissions pathway�������������������������������������34 Figure 7. Emissions from forest loss and Figure 19. Emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in the BAU pathway. degradation (Source: Solomon Islands The BAU emissions pathway estimate Forest Reference Level, 2019)���������������������36 is slightly higher than the Forest Reference Level (FRL) due to the separate estimation of emissions Figure 20. BAU emissions from deforestation and The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) from fuelwood in this study ���������������������������21 forest degradation����������������������������������������������37 Figure 8. Emissions from wastewater treatment and Figure 21. Emissions from agriculture, forestry and national population��������������������������������������������22 land use sector in the low emissions pathway��������������������������������������������������������������������37 Figure 9. BAU emissions across all emitting sectors. The commencement of the Tina Hydro Figure 22. Emissions from the livestock sector in the Plant in 2028 reduces the national low emissions pathway�������������������������������������40 emissions from electricity generation ������22 Figure 23. Composition of municipal solid waste for Figure 10. Solomon Islands BAU net emissions with BAU and low emissions pathways ��������������41 inclusion of forest carbon removals�����������23 6 Figure 24. Emissions from the waste sector in the low emissions pathway�������������������������������������41 Figure 25. The four enabling institutions mutually supporting the long-term development pathway of the Solomon Islands �����������������43 Figure 26. Emissions reductions from reduced forest degradation and loss far outweigh the emissions reductions actions in other sectors����������������������������������������������������������������������55 Figure A1.1. Solomon Islands forest product exports 2000–2021 (Source: FAO Statistics)��������56 Figure A1.2. Value of 250,000 m3 of harvested timber as round log, rough sawn timber, and finished decking (Sources: Prices from industry consultation, UNECE for conversion efficiency factors of roundwood to sawn timber) �������������������������57 Figure A2.1. Key steps in implementing the enabling institutions of Solomon Islands LEDS.������59 Figure A2.2. Initial design of MECDM, CCFAA and MoFR after implementation, with respective legislation, policy, and functions. Items with an asterisk* are new functions and programmes enabled by legislation. ��������������������������������������������������������������60 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) © GGGI 7 Executive Summary This Long-Term Low Emissions Development Solomon Islands are estimated to be net negative Strategy (LEDS) provides a vision and a pathway for emissions in 2022 as a result of its large tropical forest Solomon Islands to achieve its national economic, area. Forests cover 25 thousand km2 of the national environmental, and social goals over the long term. It is land area of 29 thousand km2, or approximately 87 per developed from within Solomon Islands, for the benefits cent of the country. The removal of carbon dioxide from for Solomon Islanders. This document also meets the the atmosphere by these forests currently exceeds the Paris Agreement obligations on Solomon Islands to emissions generated by human activity. formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies. Even with Solomon Islands achieving net zero already, all government, private and community sector stakeholders This LEDS provides a pathway towards a low emissions, agreed to seek further emissions reductions from human equitable and resilient development vision for Solomon activities. Eighteen steps from six emitting sectors were Islands by 2050. The pathway is comprised of a 2050 identified and prioritised to put Solomon Islands on a vision, emissions pathway, and steps. The steps move pathway to low emissions, equitable economic growth Solomon Islands from a BAU pathway to the low and resilience in line with the vision. A further four emissions, equitable growth and resilience pathway. steps were identified for enabling institutions that span multiple sectors. All steps are outlined in Table 1. The LEDS serves to complement and support existing short- and medium-term strategies such as the National Modelling of emissions pathways in energy, transport, Development Strategy 2016–2035, sector strategies livestock, agriculture, forestry and land use, and waste such as the National Forest Policy 2020, as well as was used to identify the steps with the greatest cross-cutting strategies such as the National Climate emissions benefits. Change Policy. As the LEDS captures development opportunities across sectors and over the long term, Solomon Islands’ forests are under pressure from logging it provides an opportunity to identify pathway actions and land use change, with the continuation of current with benefits across sectors, or over a longer period that trends, it likely to drive emissions into net positive over might otherwise not feature in the short- and medium- the long term though possibly beyond 2050. The single term strategies. The LEDS will directly inform updates to most impactful action to reduce emissions is to reduce the Solomon Islands Nationally Determined Contributions rate of forest log harvesting and implement sustainable under the Paris Agreement. forest management. If the log harvest rate returned to the sustainable level of 250,000 m3 of logs per year, with The 2050 vision for Solomon Islands guides the pathway accompanying reduction in forest loss and degradation, and actions detailed in the Solomon Islands LEDS. The then the estimated emissions reduction is over 17 million vision was developed through national consultations tonnes of CO2-equivalent per year by 2050. across government, private sector, community sector, and development sector between 2021 and 2023. Expanding electricity access is an important policy priority for equitable economic growth but must be coupled with The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) renewable energy generation to reduce emissions. If the 100 per cent electricity access target by 2050 is to Solomon Islands aim to be met with renewable energy then the additional new maintain net zero emissions generation capacity is estimated at 87 MW solar and 92 MW hydropower, or equivalent from other sources across all sectors by 2050 such as geothermal or biofuels. The capital cost of with equitable economic electrification and renewable energy to 2050 under the LEDS pathway is estimated at USD 1.5 billion, in addition growth and resilience. to the USD 500 million cost for the Tina River Hydropower Project in 2028 and the National Electrification Plan to 8 2032. Through electrification and renewable energy generation, the annual emissions savings from moving to a low emissions pathway is estimated at 126,000 tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2050. The transport and waste sectors remain a large proportion of GHG emissions for Solomon Islands to 2050 under both BAU and low emissions pathways. Vehicle standards and efficiency improvements, as well as introduction of electric vehicles and vessels, has the potential to reduce emissions by 253,000 tonnes CO2-equivalent in 2050 from the BAU pathway. The introduction of waste stream sorting facilities also has the potential to reduce emissions by 25,000 tonnes in 2050 compared with BAU. Livestock and agriculture do not currently contribute substantially to national emissions, though they may indirectly contribute through forest land conversion. The aspirations to improve sector productivity will benefit the community resilience as much as reduce emissions. Over the long term to 2050, Solomon Islands will need to build enabling institutions to achieve its low emissions development vision. The LEDS identifies the need to build enabling institutions in four key areas: > Consolidate climate and forest protection policy areas to better achieve emissions reductions goals. > Develop a programme to enable participation in public and private carbon markets, including Article 6 transactions of the Paris Agreement. > Establish National Climate Trust Fund to consolidate international assistance and financial reporting requirements. > Establish institutional arrangement to independently measure and report emissions The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) and emissions-related activity. Solomon Islands are classified as a Fragile Conflict Afflicted State by the World Bank due to institutional and social fragility1. The challenges to public administration are multiple. Nevertheless, the proposal for bold changes to enabling institutions in this strategy reflect a genuine desire on the part of all stakeholders for climate action at national, regional, and international levels, and a sustainable pathway. 1 List available here: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/ fragilityconflictviolence/brief/harmonized-list-of-fragile-situations. © GGGI 9 1 The Solomon Islands LEDS is developed primarily using the low emissions, equitable growth and resilient future may publicly available data. As further data becomes available, or will change too. Further updates to the Solomon Islands and national circumstances change, the steps towards a LEDS may be made as circumstances change. TABLE 1. Summary of steps identified to transition Solomon Islands to a low emissions, equitable growth and resilient pathway Energy 1.1 Increase renewable energy generation, particularly from hydropower and solar. 1.2 Mobilise international and domestic funds for rural electrification. 1.3 Establish a regulatory framework to enable Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Transport 2.1 Improve land transport efficiency. 2.2 Introduce electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. 2.3 Improved measurement and efficiency of maritime transport. 2.4 Introduce zero emissions technology and infrastructure for maritime transport. Forestry and land use 3.1 Reduce rate of forest clearing through tighter regulations on access or logging practice.

3.2 Increase forest area protected under the Protected Area Act 2010. 3.3 Community volunteer and private managed forest programmes. 3.4 Reafforestation programmes to replant degraded and previously logged areas with native forest. 3.5 Mangrove replanting and land reclamation for carbon conservation. Agriculture 4.1 Support organic agriculture to avoid inorganic fertiliser use and Persistent Organic Pollutants (PoPs). 4.2 Improved agriculture practices and technology to improve resilience to climate change. Livestock 5.1 Develop emissions target for livestock sector, to help guide national reporting of GHGs. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 5.2 Stock genetics improvement Waste management 6.1 Improve landfill infrastructure to better sort and process municipal solid waste. 6.2 Honiara faecal sludge treatment and regulations. Enabling institutions 7.1 Consolidate climate and forest protection policy areas to better achieve emissions reductions goals. 7.2 Develop a programme to enable participation in public and private carbon markets, including Article 6 transactions.

7.3 Establish National Climate Change Trust Fund to consolidate international assistance and financial reporting requirements, and channel investment into needed areas including R&D.

7.4 Establish institutional arrangements and build capacity to independently measure and report emissions and emissions-related activity. 10 1 1. The 2050 low emissions vision for Solomon Islands The 2050 vision for Solomon Islands guides the pathway Though the focus on GHG emissions outcomes drives and steps detailed in Solomon Islands Long-Term Low the LEDS, the inclusion of economic, environmental, Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS). The vision and social goals in the 2050 vision means that the LEDS was developed through national consultations across incorporates a wider range of concerns than solely GHG government, private sector, community sector, and emissions. The economic, social, and environmental development sector between 2021 and 2023. goals of the LEDS align with objectives of Solomon Islands National Development Strategy 2016–2035. The five objectives of the National Development Solomon Islands aims to maintain Strategy 2016–2035 are the following: net zero emissions across all sectors by 2050 with equitable I. Sustained and inclusive economic growth. economic growth and resilience. II. Poverty alleviated across the whole of Solomon The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Islands, basic needs addressed and food security improved; benefits of development The 2050 vision guides steps in a range of sectors that more equitably distributed. determine the emissions pathway for Solomon Islands. The important features of the 2050 vision are defined III. All Solomon Islanders have access to quality as the following: healthcare and education. > Net zero emissions across all sectors: Total IV. Resilient and environmentally sustainable national removals exceed total emissions. development with effective disaster risk management, response, and recovery. > Equitable economic growth: Economic growth that benefits all and with equal access to V. Unified nation with stable and effective economic opportunities. governance and public order. > Resilience: Community continuity through economic and environmental shocks. © Source 11 11 2 2. Context

2.1 PURPOSE OF SOLOMON ISLANDS LEDS Domestic application Within the domestic context, the Solomon Islands LEDS complements and supports existing short- and medium‑term strategies for low emissions, equitable and resilient development. This includes the National Development Strategy 2016–2035, sector strategies such > to facilitate, coordinate, and implement climate change enabling activities. (National Development Strategy, 2016–2035) Build capacity of the Government, private sector, and other relevant institutions to undertake regular inventory of GHG emissions as the National Forest Policy 2020, as well as cross-cutting and sinks (removals), monitor emissions and strategies such as the National Climate Change Policy. removals, establish the national carbon balance, and prioritise emission reduction strategies As the LEDS captures development opportunities across The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) and actions. (National Climate Change Policy, sectors and over the long term, it provides an opportunity 2012–2017) to identify pathway actions with benefits across sectors, or over a longer period that might otherwise not feature > MECDM to review sector strategies to ensure in short- and medium-term strategies. These actions and they cover the same or similar policy objectives, their communication into sector strategies are detailed initiatives, activities, or programmes to ensure where relevant. alignment between strategic and fiscal plans. (Climate Finance Roadmap, 2022) Development of the LEDS allows the Solomon Islands Government to contribute to goals and objectives of preceding policies and strategies including: International cooperation > Mainstream climate change by raising Solomon Islands LEDS supports international climate awareness and understanding of government action under the Paris Agreement. Through publication and non-government policymakers and the of the LEDS, Solomon Islands meets its obligations under general public about climate change and its Article 4, Paragraph 19, to formulate and communicate causes and consequences and build consensus long-term low GHG emission development strategies. 12 To April 2023, 58 LEDS and LTS have been published on Change (UNFCCC), has communicated its ambitions UNFCCC website. for medium- and long-term emissions reductions. In the 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions, Through communication of the ambition and pathway the Solomon Islands Government has committed to to maintain net zero for Solomon Islands, the Solomon emissions reductions as shown in Table 2. Islands Government looks to other nations to develop credible pathways in line with the Paris Agreement to The scope of the 2021 NDC is the energy sector and limit global warming. The Paris Agreement seeks to forestry. The energy sector actions are renewable limit global warming to under 2o C, preferably less than energy generation capacity expansion, with a list of 1.5 o C, and to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050. To unconditional and conditional projects, and energy date, 194 states and the European Union have become efficiency through appliance regulation. The forestry signatories to the Paris Agreement. sector actions include a forest inventory, introducing a sustainable logging policy, protecting forests above 400 The Solomon Islands Government, through the m, increasing the proportion of terrestrial, coastal, and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate marine ecosystems with a protected area status. TABLE 2. Emissions reductions commitments contained in Solomon Islands 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions Target year Unconditional Conditional 2025 14 per cent below 2015 BAU projection 27 per cent below 2015 (reduction of 6,771 tCO2-e) (reduction of 55,347 tCO2-e) 2030 33 per cent below 2015 45 per cent below 2015 (reduction of 246,794 tCO2-e) 2050 Net zero emissions

2.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES Geographical profile ocean between islands, but also by mountainous terrain within most islands. The highest mountain ranges are in Solomon Islands is an archipelago of 997 islands in the The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Guadalcanal and Malaita. south-west Pacific with a population of 721,455 in 20192 and a total land area of about 28,900 km2 (2,890,000 hectares) spread over 1.34 million km2 of ocean. Climate profile The country population is dispersed across 90 inhabited Solomon Islands, like many small island states, is facing islands and has one of the lowest population densities increasing vulnerability from climate change and natural (20.8 persons/km2) and urbanization rates (about 17 disasters. It is among 20 countries with the highest per cent) in the world. Distances between islands are economic risk exposure to two or more geological, quite significant; the north-western Choiseul Island is hydrological, and climatic hazards that include tropical approximately 1,500 km from the south-eastern Santa cyclones, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, Cruz Islands. The population is divided not only by the landslides, floods, and droughts. 2 2019 Census provisional estimate. Final results yet to be released. 13 At the time of the LEDS development, the latest The majority of Solomon Islanders are reliant on modelling for Solomon Islands3 projects the likely subsistence farming and fishing, which also leaves changes to climate over the period of the LEDS (to communities vulnerable to weather, pest, disease, and 2050) as the following: natural disaster-related agricultural and fisheries losses. Incremental losses to livelihoods and subsistence mask > Annual temperatures increase 0.8o to 2.1o C. the apparent widespread impacts climate change have already had on the population. > Annual rainfall changes of -5 to +10 per cent. > More heatwaves. Population profile > More intense rainfall events. Solomon Islands has the second youngest population in the Oceania region and a rapid population growth rate. > Greater tropical cyclone impacts. Seven out of 10 Solomon Islanders are under 30 years old4. This presents challenges in providing education and > Sea level rise from 17 to 37 cm. health services and presents the risk of large cohorts of young people being without activities that will provide More than 80 per cent of Solomon Islanders reside in them with income-generating opportunities. coastal areas. The preponderance of coastal settlement means a high national vulnerability to sea-level rise. Recent Using the provisional results of the 2019 Census, we experience with natural disasters such as cyclones, floods, find that 64 per cent of the national population is found earthquakes, tsunamis, storm surges, and king tides have on two islands: Malaita (24 per cent) and Guadalcanal already displaced many coastal communities. (including Honiara, 40 per cent). FIGURE 1. Population distribution by province, as used in Solomon Islands LEDS (Source: Solomon Islands National Statistics Office 2019 Census Provisional Results) Rennel-Bellona Temotu Central 1% Isabel 4% 3% Choiseul 4% Malaita 4% Makira-Ulawa 24% 7% The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Western 13% 22% 18% Guadalcanal Honiara 3 CSIRO SPREP 2019 ‘NextGen’ Projections for the Western Tropical Pacific: Current and Future Climate for Solomon Islands, https://www.rccap. org/uploads/files/78de13fb-77cb-40af-8639-ee48268518ba/Solomon%20Islands%20Country%20Report_Updated.pdf. 4 https://www.undp.org/pacific/publications/solomon-islands-youth-status-report-2018. 14 Economic profile features of Solomon Islands Constitution include the ability for Parliament to amend the Constitution, codified Solomon Islands is classified as a least developed functions and collective responsibility of cabinet, and country, as well as being classified as a Fragile and codified safeguards for individual rights to speech, Conflict-Affected Situation (FCS) country. Solomon worship, movement, and assembly. Islands rank 153rd out of 189 countries in the global Human Development Index (HDI) ranking, which is The head of state is the King of England, and is comparable to Papua New Guinea, but below the other represented in Solomon Islands by the Governor- countries of the Melanesian group (Vanuatu, 141st and General. The Governor-General acts on the advice Fiji, 98th). Based on the 2012–2013 Household Income of the Prime Minister and the cabinet. The Governor- and Expenditure Survey (HIES), about 12.7 per cent of General of Solomon Islands is elected by parliament. the population of Solomon Islands lives below the basic need poverty line5. The legislative functions are held by an elected Parliament of 50 members. Parliament is required to The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak had a severe pass annual budget bills of appropriation. impact on the economy. Real GDP growth declined to about -4.3 per cent in 2020 compared to 2.5 per cent The executive functions are held by the Prime Minister in the pre-pandemic baseline, as a result of a decline in and nominated cabinet ministers from Parliament. The logging, mining, and fisheries exports, and a contraction Prime Minister, elected by Parliament, chooses the other in tourism. The sharp fall in growth has resulted in members of the cabinet. Cabinet members are assigned economic hardship, and there has been an increase administrative responsibilities for ministries. in theft and crime, culminating in widespread looting during the November 2021 riots. The constitution of Solomon Islands can be amended by the Act of Parliament. The most recent amendment to the Travel restrictions and supply-chain disruptions have Constitution was August 2022, for deferral of elections delayed infrastructure and mining projects and related until after the Pacific Games in November 2023. activity. The 17th Pacific Games, to be held in November 2023, has provided an impetus for infrastructure In addition to the national capital territory of Honiara, construction around Honiara and may provide a boost nine provincial governments of Solomon Islands are to the local economy in the national capital province. established by the Provincial Government Act 1997. The provincial governments are: Western, Isabel, Central, Guadalcanal, Malaita, Makira Ulawa, Temotu, Choiseul, Government structure Rennell and Bellona. The powers devolved to provincial Solomon Islands is an independent state with a government include property tax, local business licencing, Westminster-style government and constitution agricultural land use, housing standards, fire protection, composed at independence from Britain in July 1978. An waste management, markets, and keeping of domestic executive government is formed from elected members animals. Provincial governments are primarily funded of Parliament, Parliament retains legislative powers, through the Provincial Fund. Provincial governments have and independent judiciary and civil service administer powers to constitute Area Councils. The Honiara City justice and government operations respectively. Special Council is established under the Honiara City Act 1999. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 5 https://www.statistics.gov.sb/ statistics/demographic-statistics/ household-income-and-expenditure- surveys. 15 15 © GGGI 3 3. Emissions pathways to 2050

3.1 EMISSIONS DRIVERS For the purposes of estimating emissions, a simple BAU pathway was developed using population and economic growth as drivers of emissions. The application of TABLE 3. population and economic growth to demand or output is shown in Table 3. Where population and economy act as underlying drivers of demand growth in the emissions pathways developed for Solomon Islands LEDS Demand or output type Underlying driver of demand growth The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) > Residential energy demand Population (People) > Fuelwood demand > Road, sea, and air transport demand > Solid waste output > Waste water output > Commercial energy demand Economy (GDP) > Logging harvest output No driver of growth modelled. BAU pathway maintains current level (2020 or latest available) to 2050. > Rate of forest land use change > Livestock herd size 16 The SPC Data for Development Solomon Islands the SPC population projection more closely matched Population to 2050 were used as a population the 2009 and 2019 Census results. The SPC projected projection6. The United Nations Statistic Division also population growth rates over the coming decades are provides a population projection to 2050; however, shown in Table 4 below. TABLE 4. National population annual growth rates for decade periods to 2050 Period Projected annual growth rate 2020–2030 2.1 per cent 2030–2040 2.0 per cent 2040–2050 1.7 per cent The population distribution by province remains Product (GDP). The growth rate of GDP is 3.09 per unchanged for the period 2020–2050 in both BAU cent per year for the period 2001 to 2021. The GDP and LEDS pathways. The population distribution is the growth rate of Solomon Islands is variable, which reflects provisional results of the 2019 Census, as shown in resource-driven economy and conflict events such as Figure 1 in the preceding section. ethnic tensions in 2000 and riots in 2021. The projected national population and the GDP for the period 2000 The economic growth projections for the period 2021 to to 2050, including projections from 2021 are shown in 2050 used the long-term growth rate of Gross Domestic Figure 2 below. FIGURE 2. Solomon Islands population and GDP projections to 2050 used in developing the BAU and low emissions development pathways (sources: SINSO, SPC Statistical Division, World Bank Statistics, author calculations) Solomon Islands Population and GDP projections to 2050 1,600,000 4.0 1,400,000 3.5 Billions 1,200,000 3.0 GDP (USD 2015 constant) National Population 1,000,000 2.5 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 800,000 2.0 600,000 1.5 400,000 1.0 200,000 0.5 - - 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 National Population Projection GDP Projection GDP Actual Census 6 Available here: https://sdd.spc.int/topic/population-estimates-and-projections. 17

3.2 BUSINESS AS USUAL (BAU) EMISSIONS PATHWAY The BAU emissions pathway reflects the existing Energy sector development pathway for Solomon Islands, including Within the electricity sector, the BAU emissions pathway initiated or confirmed projects. includes the development of the Tina River Hydropower Project (15 MW operating from 2028), a range of rural solar-diesel projects are under development or to be installed, and no change to existing efficiencies of generation, transmission, and distribution will be experienced. The rate of electricity access remains unchanged from the latest available; see Table 5 below. TABLE 5. Electricity access rates in the BAU emissions pathway (source: 2009 Census) Province Rate of electricity access, as measured by proportion of households with a connection to the grid or mini-grids Choiseul 4 per cent Western 12 per cent Isabel 6 per cent Central 4 per cent Rennel-Bellona 0 per cent Guadalcanal 8 per cent Malaita 3 per cent Makira-Ulawa 4 per cent Temotu 3 per cent Honiara 64 per cent The commercial and industrial energy intensity remains unchanged in BAU (Table 6). Residual Fuel Oil, also known as Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), is excluded from the The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) pathway to 2050 as historical consumption is sporadic and there is no known ongoing use. TABLE 6. Commercial and industrial energy intensities used in the BAU pathway Commercial and industrial energy source Estimate Units Calibration years Electricity 0.0540 kWh/$GDP 2015 2010–2020 Diesel 0.0082 L/$GDP 2015 2000, 2005, 2010 Kerosene 0.0026 kg/$GDP 2015 2000, 2005, 2010 LPG intensity 0.0005 kg/$GDP 2015 2005, 2010–2018 18 The projected emissions from the energy sector, summary of the estimates developed for and from the including transport, are estimated using the LEAP energy sector modelling are shown in Appendix 3. The software. The LEAP model demand elements include estimated energy demand (in petajoules, PJ), emissions residential sector, commercial sector, and transport. A (in CO2-e and PM2.5) are shown in figures below. FIGURE 3. BAU energy demand Business as usual - energy demand 20 18 16 Energy demand, Petajoule (PJ) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 4. BAU GHG emissions in CO2-equivalent. The commencement of Tina River Hydropower Plant in 2028 reduces the national emissions from electricity generation Business as usual - energy sector emissions 20 16 14 CO2-e, thousand tonnes 12 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 10 8 6 4 2 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity generation Residential Commercial Transport 19 FIGURE 5. BAU pollutant emissions in PM2.5 PM2.5 annual emissions with BAU cooking technology 3,500 3,000 2,500 Metric tonnes of PM2.5 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Honiara Central MakiraUlawa Choiseul Rennel Bellona Temotu Western Guadalcanal Isabel Malaita Livestock sector Under the BAU pathway, the livestock sector production and emissions are held constant from the latest available data (2018) to 2050. The same livestock herd sizes are used for BAU as the low emissions pathway. FIGURE 6. Solomon Islands livestock herd size projections to 2050. Data up to 2018 are the estimates used in previous greenhouse gas inventory calculations BAU and LEDS livestock projections 160,000 140,000 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 120,000 Number of animals 100,000 80,000 60,000 50,000 20,000 0 2000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Head of cattle Number of swine 20 Agriculture forestry and land use Under the BAU pathway, the rates of deforestation and degradation are held constant at the most recent Solomon Islands LEDS benefits from the development available data point (2021) through to 2050 (Figure 7). of the national Forest Reference Level (FRL) for REDD+ The largest cause of forest degradation is logging. activities in 2019. The FRL provides a detailed analysis of In 2017, the log harvest reached 3.4 million m3 and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, as well impacted about 70,000 hectares of forest land (about as estimates for the years 2001–2017 and projections 50 m3 log harvest per hectare impacted). for 2018–2021. FIGURE 7. Emissions from forest loss and degradation in the BAU pathway. The BAU emissions pathway estimate is slightly higher than the Forest Reference Level (FRL) due to the separate estimation of emissions from fuelwood in this study BAU emissions pathway - Emissions from deforestation and degradation 25 Annual emissions, million tonnes CO2-e 25 25 25 25 25 2000 2005 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FRL Emissions Estimate BAU Pathway Waste sector keeping with estimates of Honiara waste generation7. The waste composition and treatment are projected to The waste sector emissions include methane from stay constant to 2050. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) municipal solid waste (MSW) and methane and nitrous oxide from wastewater treatment. Emissions from wastewater disposal are modelled using a bespoke model built on IPCC 2006 parameters. The key The BAU pathway assumes that solid waste is generated driver for emissions in the BAU pathway is population at a constant rate of 0.97 kg per person per day, in growth (Figure 8). 7 Data Source: Solid Waste Management Plan (2018–2027); HCC (2019). 21 FIGURE 8. Emissions from wastewater treatment and national population Business as Usual wastewater emissions generation Wasrewater emissions, CO2-e thousand tonnes (Gihagram) 1,600,000 45 40 National population 1,400,000 1,200,000 35 30 1,000,000 25 800,000 20 600,000 15 400,000 10 200,000 5 - 0 2000 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 Population Wastewater CO2e Emission (Gg) BAU total emissions and net emissions. Under the BAU pathway, the national emissions grow from 900,000 tonnes CO2-e in 2020 to 1,627,000 tonnes CO2-e in 2050 (Figure 10). In absolute terms, the largest increases in emissions are seen in the transport and waste sectors, respectively. These are driven by population growth. FIGURE 9. BAU emissions across all emitting sectors. The commencement of the Tina Hydro Plant in 2028 reduces the national emissions from electricity generation Solomon Islands GHG Emissions Business as Usual Pathway, excluding forest sector 1,800 1,600 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 1,400 CO2-Eq, thousand tonnes, Gg 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 245 2050 Energy - Electricity generation Energy - Industry Energy - Residential and other Transport Waste Livestock 22 The net emissions of Solomon Islands include emissions outweigh the emissions from human activities. On from forest degradation and land conversion as well as current measures, the net emissions balance of Solomon removals (withdrawals) of carbon from the atmosphere Islands is 27 million tonnes CO2-equivalent removals from through forest growth. These removals significantly the atmosphere (Figure 10). FIGURE 10. Solomon Islands BAU net emissions with inclusion of forest carbon removals Solomon Islands GHG Emissions pathway including forest removals and net emissions - Million tonnes 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 -5 -10 GHG emissions, CO2-Eq -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 BAU Removals BAU Net emissions

3.3 LOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT PATHWAY The low emissions development pathway was developed Low emissions pathway total and net emissions in line with the 2050 vision for Solomon Islands: Under the low emissions pathway, Solomon Islands total emissions peak in 2050 and are driven by increasing waste sector emissions. Waste sector emissions Solomon Islands aims to maintain The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) include emissions from municipal solid waste, as well net zero emissions across all as wastewater treatment. In the BAU development sectors by 2050 with equitable pathway, waste emissions comprise about 44 per cent of emissions throughout the period. In the low emissions economic growth and resilience. development pathway, waste sector emissions start at 44 per cent and grow to almost 60 per cent of total emissions by 2050 (see Figure 11). This section presents the low emissions development pathway as for the emissions from each sector and collectively as well. The detailed actions in each sector are described in the subsequent section, as it is through the actions in each sector that the emissions trajectory is changed. 23 FIGURE 11. Composition of Solomon Islands emissions in the low emissions development pathway Solomon Islands GHG Emissions Low Emissions Development Pathway, excluding forest removals 1,800 1,800 1,800 CO2-Eq, thousand tonnes, Gg 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 245 2050 Energy - Electricity generation Energy - Industry Energy - Residential and other Transport Waste Livestock FIGURE 12. The BAU and low emissions development pathways for forestry removals and the net emissions including forestry removals Solomon Islands GHG Emissions pathways including forest removals and net emissions - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 -5 -10 GHG emissions, CO2-eq -15 -20 -25 -30 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) -35 -40 -45 BAU Removals BAU Net emissions LEDS Removals LEDS Net emissions 24 Of all the actions taken to reduce emissions, the actions that reduce forest degradation and loss will have the greatest impact on Solomon Islands net national emissions. The total estimated emissions under the BAU pathway from energy, transport, livestock, and waste sectors is 1.6 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent global warming potential. Also, of the actions identified in the LEDS, those which reduce the rate of forest loss and conversion can potentially reduce emissions (increase removals) by 17 million tonnes CO2-equivalent per year. All the other actions to reduce emissions identified in the LEDS have the capacity to reduce annual emissions by 405,000 tonnes of CO2-equivalent in the year 2050 compared to BAU. Even in the BAU scenario, with constant rates of forest loss and degradation, the estimated forest removals are 23 million tonnes CO2 in 2050. Under the BAU scenario, Solomon Islands starts from a position of large net negative emissions (due to large forest areas), but over time the balance approaches net positive. With the forest area estimates and carbon removal methodology used, projection forward of human emissions, Solomon Islands will still be net negative in 2050 under a BAU development pathway. There are some uncertainties about this position including the possibility of revised and lower estimates of forest sector removals and potential large-scale degradation of forest areas from climate-related shocks or human activities (such as forest fires). The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) © GGGI 25 4 4. The low emissions, equitable growth and resilience pathway

4.1 ENERGY SECTOR The ambition for the energy sector, as indicated in the The Solomon Islands Government has several objectives, vision statement, is for low emissions, equal benefit, and policies, programmes, and projects that aim to increase strong communities. For Solomon Islands, the long-term electricity access. The Energy Division of the Ministry pathway towards equal benefit and strong communities of Mines, Energy, and Rural Electrification administers means improving access to energy from the current low the Electricity Act 1969 and is responsible for the levels. National Energy Policy 2019. The Energy Division of the Ministry coordinates several rural electrification projects Electricity access is strongly correlated with economic with development partners including the World Bank, growth and human development8. Electricity access Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the Australian enables education and income generation, and improves Government-funded Solomon Islands Infrastructure The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) health services and access. Electricity access benefits Programme (SIIP). women, youth, children, and those in marginal groups. Through technical assistance from the ADB and the Solomon Islands has one of the youngest populations Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the in the Pacific. At the 2009 Census, 41 per cent of the Energy Division has completed a review of the Electricity national population were aged 14 or younger and 60 Act 1969, and developed national electrification per cent of the population was aged 24 or younger. strategies and implementation plans. The ambitions for A much greater rate of electricity access is needed to electricity access are shown in Table 7. provide the education and health services and economic opportunities for this growing population. 8 Stern, D., Burke, P. & Bruns, S., 2017. The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective, EEG State-of-Knowledge Paper Series. 26 TABLE 7. Solomon Islands Government electricity access and renewable energy targets Current level* Target By Solomon Islands National Energy Policy, 2019 Urban electricity access (% households inside Honiara) 64% 80% 2025 Rural electricity access (% households outside Honiara) 4.9% 40% 2025 Improve energy efficiency and conservation in all sectors 10% 2030 Share of renewable energy for electricity generation in urban and rural 1% 50% 2035 areas Electricity access nationally 16% 100% 2050 Renewable Energy Road Map, 2021 Renewable energy generation for the Honiara grid 2% 100% 2030 Energy access for Honiara 64% 100% 2050 *Current estimates based on the 2009 Census national population distribution, 2012 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, and Solomon Islands Electricity Authority 2021 Annual Report In the BAU pathway for Solomon Islands these ambitious The commercial, industrial, and government energy targets are not met. However, in the low emissions demand to 2050 was projected using the energy development pathway these ambitious targets are met. intensities estimated from preceding years. The energy intensity of the GDP values is shown in Table 8 below. To project energy and emissions to 2050 in line with The efficiency goal in the National Energy Policy is the vision, estimates of the energy demand from modelled in the low emissions pathway by reducing the commercial, industrial, government, and residential energy intensity by 10 per cent. sectors are needed. TABLE 8. Energy intensity of commercial, industrial, and government sectors Energy source BAU intensity Units Estimate years Electricity 0.0540 kWh/$GDP 2015 2010–2020 Diesel The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 0.0082 L/$GDP 2015 2000, 2005, 2010 Kerosene 0.0026 kg/$GDP 2015 2000, 2005, 2010 Residual Fuel Oil intensity 0.0000 kg/$GDP 2015 2005, 2010–2018 LPG intensity 0.0005 kg/$GDP 2015 2005, 2010–2018 27 Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) use was not modelled in the SI Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme LEDS. Although there are sporadic recorded imports (ESMAP)9, Solomon Islands Electricity Authority supply of RFO, the commercial or industrial users of RFO are averages10, and appliance energy consumption estimates unknown and the quantity of use is small. RFO is not from neighbouring countries of Vanuatu and Fiji11. used in electricity generation. Coconut oil is not currently used as an electricity Residential sector energy demand for Solomon Islands generation fuel source in Solomon Islands. It has the was estimated using census data on technology use and potential to be used as part of the fuel mix, and may estimates of associated energy use. be used as the backup fuel source for solar-diesel generation sets. Solomon Islands has extensive history For electricity demand, household electricity demand and high levels of production of copra but has not was estimated using census data on lighting type developed the production capacity and institutional and appliance ownership rates, and together with arrangements for grid-scale use of coconut oil as a fuel lighting and appliance energy use, an estimate of source. The successes of the Government of Vanuatu average household electricity demand was calculated and UNELCO to use coconut oil in its electricity grid as 1,210 kWh per household per year. A range of could be replicated in Solomon Islands. alternative estimates were derived from the World Bank FIGURE 13. Household average electricity demand estimates from Solomon Islands and abroad Household average electricity demand 1,800 1,600 KWH per household per year 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 1,607 1,210 1,241 600 1,118 1,005 400 200 365 - ESMAP Tier 3 Vanuatu 2015 Honiara SI Low ESMAP Fiji 2015 and SI National Household household Emissions Tier 4 Household Electrification appliance supply Development appliance Plan 2022 estimate 2016-21 Strategy estimate The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 9 ESMAP Technical Report 008/15, 2015, available here: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/650971468180259602/pdf/105054- ESM-P148200-ADD-SERIES-PUBLIC-FINAL-ESMAP-Beyond-Connections-TR008-15-optimized.pdf. 10 SIEA annual reports available here: https://solomonpower.com.sb/annual-reports/. 11 GWA 2015 Energy labelling and minimum energy performance standards for appliances and lighting, available here: https://prdrse4all.spc.int/sites/ default/files/energy_labelling_and_minimum_energy_performance_standards_for_appliances_and_lighting-impacts_in_ci.fj_.ki_.sa_.to_.va_.pdf. 28 Generation capacity been identified at several sites (Savo Island, Paraso, Simbo, and Tinakula) but the design, connections, The current generation capacity within Solomon Islands is costs, and electricity offtake market do not appear to estimated at 45.91 Megawatts (MW), of which Solomon have advanced beyond concept level. The information Islands Electricity Authority (SIEA, otherwise known as contained in the Solomon Islands LEDS, including long- Solomon Power) generators at Honiara and Lungga power term electricity demand projections, may assist to assess stations account for 32.7 MW. geothermal project developers. To meet the target of electricity access to 2032, the Expanded electricity generation will be needed to meet estimated generation capacity expansion in Solomon the ambitions of Solomon Islands National Energy Islands National Electrification Plan includes 9.5 MW in Policy beyond the Tina River hydropower project and Diesel, 33.6 MW in Solar PV, and 123.5 MWH in battery the National Electrification Plan 2022–2032. In the storage, as well as a 443 km of grid extension. The low emissions pathway, electricity demand is driven capital expenditure required to achieve the ambitions by growing electricity access and changing technology of the is estimated at USD 273 million over 10 years in the residential sector, economic growth in the (2022–2032) excluding the Tina River project. commercial, industrial, and government sectors, and The Tina River project is the largest renewable energy increased electrification of transport. project under development in Solomon Islands. The size of The estimated capacity additions to meet the growing the hydropower system is 15 MW with an annual output demand through renewable energy is 87 Megawatt (MW) expected at 76.9 GWH. The cost of the hydropower solar and 92 MW hydropower by 2050 (Figure 14). This plant, access roads, transmission line, and institutional estimate is developed on the basis of equal additions capacity building is budgeted at USD 241.8 million12. The of both renewable energy sources after current pipeline capital cost of this system is USD 16 per Watt capacity of projects, which weights towards solar, has been installed. Over an economic lifetime of 30 years and real delivered. This estimate includes retirement of 33 MW annual operating costs of USD 1.7million, the unit cost of end-of-life diesel generation capacity to achieve 100 per electricity supplied would be USD 0.13 per kWh, about a cent renewable energy for Honiara. The addition of 15 quarter of the current retail price of electricity. MW provided by Tina River Hydropower Project from Geothermal energy sources are not modelled in the 2028 is shown separately in Figure 14. Solomon Islands LEDS. Geothermal resources have FIGURE 14. Estimated generation capacity to 2050 under the BAU and low emissions pathways Low Emissions pathway - Total Generation Capacity by Type 200 180 160 Capacity, Megawatts (MW) The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 140 87 120 100 80 48 60 77 1.4 23 40 39 0.4 39 12 20 15 15 15 - 6 6 6 2020 2030 2040 2050 Diesel Tina River Hydro Hydro exc. Tina River Solar 12 GCF 2020 Annual Performance Report for FP044: Tina River Hydropower Development, available here: https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/ default/files/document/fp044-annual-performance-report-cy2020-disclosable.pdf. 29 The challenge for Solomon Islands low emissions installed capacity and distribution. Applying these development is to develop renewable energy generation unit costs to additional required capacity indicates capacity to meet electricity demand. The current Solomon capital expenditure of USD 1.5 billion, in addition to Islands Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) the USD 0.5 billion expenditure estimate on Tina River identifies many renewable energy generation projects Hydro and Solomon Islands National Electrification as unconditional and conditional commitments. Several Plan. Savings and efficiencies would likely reduce the donors-funded projects from ADB, Australia and New capacity costs generation towards the global averages Zealand are funding household-, community-, and grid- for hydropower and solar of USD 2.13 and USD 0.86 scale solar and hydropower projects across the country. per Watt installed capacity15. There is opportunity for Solomon Islands to replicate the Given the significant expansion of generation capacity rural electrification programmes of Fiji13 and Vanuatu14 required to meet the ambitious electrification targets, that use both international and domestic capital to seed the Solomon Islands Government has commenced an a self-funding programme. For both Fiji and Vanuatu institutional reform process to separate regulation and rural electrification funds, the management and funding licencing from SIEA operations and enable Independent of these programmes is independent of both utilities and Power Producers (IPPs). departments of energy. The current regulatory framework for electricity The scale of project planning, both generation capacity generation and supply is established through the and expenditure, will need to increase significantly Electricity Act 1969 and subsidiary regulations. The Act to achieve the goals of electrification and renewable establishes Solomon Islands Electricity Authority as the capacity. The current pipeline of hydropower projects is monopoly supplier of electricity and operator or licenser 15 MW Tina Hydro and 10 MW across 16 smaller sites, of electricity generation. The legislation prescribes that and the pipeline of solar projects is 5.2 MW. The scale every private use generator above 50 kW and all hotel of hydropower project planning will need to more than and resort generators are required to receive a licence triple and the scale of solar project planning will need to and pay an annual licence fee to SIEA. increase more than tenfold to achieve the electrification goals with renewable energy by 2050. Enabling IPPs to develop, build, own, and operate electricity supply provides a greater range of project The estimated capital expenditure to achieve the proponents to develop the needed generation capacity electrification goals to 2050, by using the capital at lower cost. Reforming the Electricity Act 1969 to costs of Tina Hydro and the National Electrification remove the licencing requirement by SIEA would Plan (solar, battery, and diesel), we can estimate enable growth of independent power generation to the installed capacity costs of USD 16.12 per Watt meet the growing electricity demand. This LEDS step (W) for hydro and USD 6.33 per W for solar battery is shown below. LEDS step Outcome measured by Target 1. Energy

1.1 Increase renewable energy Proportion of electricity generated A total of 50 per cent by 2035, in The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) generation, particularly from by renewable sources. line with the SI National Energy hydropower and solar. Policy.

1.2 Mobilise international Establishment of a rural Legislation passed and funding and domestic funds for rural electrification programme and fund. mechanism operational by 2035. electrification.

1.3 Establish regulatory framework Legislative reform to establish Updated legislation by 2030. to enable Independent Power independent economic and Producers (IPPs). technical regulation and licencing of supply. 13 Fiji Rural Electrification Fund: https://fijiclimatechangeportal.gov.fj/publication/climate-finance-infographic/. 14 Vanuatu National Green Energy Fund: https://doe.gov.vu/index.php/ngef/reports/23-ngef#. 15 IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs 2021, here: https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2021. 30 The low emissions pathway of the energy sector, excluding transport, is shown in Figure 15 below. The impact of LEDS actions is a reduction of 126,000 tonnes of CO2-e per year in 2050 compared with BAU development. FIGURE 15. Annual GHG emissions from energy sector in the low emissions pathway Low Emissions pathway - Energy sector emissions 180 160 140 Thousand tonnes CO2-e 120 100 80 60 40 20 - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Electricity generation Residential Commercial

4.2 TRANSPORT SECTOR Access to transportation of goods and services is the Solomon Islands Government has developed an essential to support the equitable development Electric Mobility Policy and Roadmap and undertook and strong communities in Solomon Islands. As the prefeasibility testing of electric buses for Honiara16. population and economic resources are spread across many islands and a large ocean area, there are a mix Land transport is currently estimated to use close to The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) of road, maritime, and air transport considerations for 60 million litres of diesel and 40 million litres of petrol Solomon Islands. (gasoline) per year. The stock of vehicles on the roads and their usage is unknown as many of the vehicles are The current NDC does not include ambitions for unregistered and many of the roads outside of Honiara reducing emissions from transport. Emissions from are logging access roads. With representative vehicle transport currently contribute almost 30 per cent of efficiencies (Table 9), the transport demand per capita can national emissions excluding forestry and land use. be estimated and projected forward to 2050 (Figure 16). There are emerging efforts to reduce emissions from land For maritime transport, Solomon Islands has called on transport through low carbon technologies. Through the IMO for high ambition reductions of emissions from the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), international shipping and for an equitable transition of 16 CTCN workshop report, August 2022, available here: https://www.ctc-n.org/system/files/dossier/3b/Final%20Wksp%2029%20Aug%20 Rev%2031%20Aug.pdf. 31 international shipping to a sustainable and zero-GHG the maritime sector. This rapid assessment will inform emission future. At the Fourth Pacific Regional Energy the development of a national action plan for the and Transport Minister’s Meeting in 2019, Solomon maritime sector, which may also include emissions from Islands agreed to work towards reducing GHG emissions port operations (which come under land transport or from domestic shipping by 40 per cent in 2030 and 100 electricity sector emissions). per cent in 2050, and to adopt Pacific Ports 2030‑2050, a vision of Resilient, Green and Clean Ports in the Pacific. Similar to land transport, sea transport demand has been In addition, Solomon Islands is a partner country of the projected to 2050 using population projections and the Pacific Blue Shipping Partnership (PBSP). The Solomon estimates of vessel usage per capita. The demand basis Islands Maritime Authority has embarked on a rapid used in the projections are shown in Table 10. assessment of opportunities to reduce emissions from TABLE 9. Fuel efficiency of representative vehicle stock used in this study Mode type value units Source Land vehicle Diesel 11.8 L/100 km Fuel use of Ford F-150, selected as representative vehicle Land vehicle Petrol 12.6 L/100 km Fuel use of Toyota Tacoma (Hilux), selected as representative vehicle Sea ship Diesel 83.3 Litres/hour Estimate, based on industry consultation Sea boat Petrol 16.4 Litres/hour Average fuel consumption 15–50HP 2-stroke and 4-stroke outboard motors Small plane Avgas 90.0 Litres/hour Fuel use of Britten-Norman Islander, selected as representative plane used in Solomon Islands Large plane Jet Kerosene 531.1 Litres/hour Estimate for Solomon Airlines fleet TABLE 10. Transport demand per capita used in the projections of transport demand Mode Fuel type value units Land vehicle Diesel 695 km / capita The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Land vehicle Petrol 308 km / capita Sea ship Diesel 0.093 hours / capita Sea boat Petrol 0.192 hours / capita Small plane Avgas 0.001 hours / capita Large plane Jet Kerosene 0.012 hours / capita 32 FIGURE 16. Demand projection for land transport. Land transport demand projection 1,000 900 800 Vehicle travel (million km) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Petrol Cars and trucks Diesel Cars and trucks FIGURE 17. Demand projection for sea transport. Sea transport demand projection 25 20 Vessel use (thousand hours) 15 10 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Petrol Boat Diesel Ship The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Under the low emissions pathway, the vehicle fuel Through the assistance of donors, the Solomon Islands efficiency increases from 2022 through stock change, Government is developing transport infrastructure plans and from 2030, electric vehicles and vessels enter and policies. These long-term plans should consider the service in Solomon Islands. needs to supply electricity to vehicles and vessels. It can be difficult to retrofit charging stations and high voltage Solomon Islands imports almost all transport technology, electricity supply to ports and bus stations. Furthermore, such as cars, trucks, ships, outboard motors. There will as efforts to develop institutional framework for be a natural increase in the efficiency of second‑hand Independent Power Producers progress, so too should vehicles and vessels arriving in Solomon Islands due the development of physical infrastructure to allow an to efficiency gains in the stock of source markets independent supply of electricity to vehicles and vessels. (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore). Through improved There are benefits from using vehicle and vessel batteries border controls and inspections, Solomon Islands can to stabilise electricity grids, particularly as a greater accelerate the transition to more efficient vehicles proportion of renewable energy generation: an average through introducing minimum standards of vehicles electric vehicle battery might store four or more times the and vessels. electrical energy of an average household‑sized battery. 33 LEDS step Outcome measured by Target 2.Transport

2.1 Improve land transport Introduce standards system for Standards and verification system efficiency second-hand vehicle imports and operational from 2030. tax on inefficient vehicles.

2.2 Introduce electric vehicles and Introduce electric vehicles and Electric vehicles and charging charging infrastructure charging infrastructure in Honiara. infrastructure available in Honiara from 2035.

2.3 Improved measurement and Measurement of fuel use and Domestic shipping operations efficiency of maritime transport emissions of domestic shipping. and fossil fuel use measured and reported by 2030.

2.4 Introduce zero emissions Use of zero emissions vessels and Zero emissions vessels meet 50 per technology and infrastructure for charging infrastructure for domestic cent of domestic maritime transport maritime transport shipping. demand by 2050. The low emissions pathway of the transport sector, is shown in Figure 18 below. The impact of LEDS actions is a reduction of 253,000 tonnes of CO2-e per year in 2050 compared with BAU development. FIGURE 18. Emissions from the transport sector in the low emissions pathway Low Emissions pathway - Transport emissions 350 300 250 Thousand tonnes CO2-e 200 150 100 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 50 - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Land Maritime Air 34

4.3 FORESTRY AND LAND USE Solomon Islands is a high forest area country. Forest addition of forest products within Solomon Islands. land cover of 87 per cent or 25,223 km2 was recorded Reducing the rate of logging by 90 per cent and milling in 202017. This is a benefit for the carbon sequestration and machining the timber into an export product such as potential of forests, but also a challenge for developing decking or floorboards will increase the value of exports regional economies without forest encroachment or well beyond the current value of round log exports. losses and subsequent emissions. Further information is provided in Appendix 1. Solomon Islands is a biodiversity hotspot for forests, Reducing logging to sustainable levels is a priority for with an estimated 4,500 species of plant of which 3,200 Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands Nationally Determined are native. Of the 163 species of bird, 69 are endemic Contributions (2021) include the following: to Solomon Islands. The National Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan 2016–2020 included targets for 10 per cent > Solomon Islands is committed to undertake terrestrial and inland water, and 15 per cent of coastal a multi-purpose national forest inventory and marine areas are protected under the Protected Area over the next few years. This will provide Act 2010, up from the estimated 5 per cent and 6 per the basis for forest monitoring and informed cent, respectively. Financial support for protected area decision‑making to improve forest management management will be through the Protected Area Trust and research. Fund, which is established under the Act. > Solomon Islands intends to implement the The forestry sector is a large economic driver for the Sustainable Logging Policy 2018. country. Forest products account for about 65 per cent of exports, licences provide around 20 per cent of > Quantify forest carbon sequestration and government revenue, and the logging industry provides 20 protect forest above a 400-meter contour. per cent of total employment18. The payments of royalties > Protect at least 20 per cent of the terrestrial and can provide valuable revenue to rural communities with inland water; 15 per cent of coastal and marine limited alternative sources of income, infrastructure, or areas enabling an ecological, representative services. The Forest Resources and Timber Utilisation Act and well-connected system of protected area 1970 currently stands as the Forest Resources Act 1999, in the country, as provided in The National while passed by Parliament, was not Gazetted. Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan 2016–2020. The National Forest Policy 2020 seeks to balance the competing requirements to reduce unsustainable logging The Solomon Islands Government developed and and safeguard ecosystem services while supporting forest submitted to UNFCCC its National Forest Reference industries and economies. The national forest policy Level in 2019 in order to assess domestic policy included an estimated sustainable level of logging at effectiveness, demonstrate commitment to reduced 250,000 m3 per year, which is far exceeded by the current emissions, and to qualify for results-based payments rate of logging, over 3,000,000 m3 per year in 2018. under REDD+ framework. The Forest Reference Level The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) estimated emissions growing at a steep trend as forest The economic impact of reduction in the log harvesting loss and disturbance, primarily from logging, caused rate can be compensated by increasing the value emissions (see Figure 19). 17 FAO estimate 2021, available here: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/. 18 National Forest Policy 2020 available here: https://www.mofr.gov.sb/documents/LegislationAndRegulation/SI%20National%20Forest%20 Policy%202020.pdf. 35 FIGURE 19. Emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (Source: Solomon Islands Forest Reference Level, 2019) Historical Emissions & Removals 2001-2017 and FRL 2018-2021 y = 845,867.68x - 1,691,626,006.34 R2 = 0.91 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 Results Period: 2018-2021 Emissions (tCO2e) 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 The emissions levels submitted in the FRL are those viable resources are exhausted. Alternatively, timber emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation. harvest could stay high as timber resource prices increase However, with the large forest area for Solomon Islands the area where commercial extraction is viable. With (over 80 per cent of the landmass), the carbon removals high uncertainty of the future area of forest degradation from existing forests are estimated to outweigh the and loss under the BAU pathway, the emissions from emissions from the deforestation and degradation. forest loss is estimated to continue at current levels. Stakeholders voiced concern that under the BAU Through consultation on the LEDS, stakeholders have scenario, a high rate of timber harvest in the short term emphasised the goals and targets in the National Forest leads to a steep decline in harvests later, as commercially Policy. The LEDS steps are the following: LEDS step Measured by Target 3. Forestry and land use The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS)

3.1 Reduce rate of forest clearing Cubic meters of harvested logs. 250,000m3 by 2035 through tighter regulations on access or logging practice.

3.2 Increase forest area protected Lowland, hill, and montane forest 20 per cent by 2035 under Protected Area Act 2010. area under Protected Area Act 2010.

3.3 Community volunteer Establishment legal framework Legislation by 2035 and private managed forest for community and private forest programmes. management.

3.4 Reafforestation programmes Operating reafforestation Programme operational by 2035 to replant degraded and previously programme. logged areas with native forest.

3.5 Mangrove replanting and Operating programme for Programme operational by 2035 land reclamation for carbon mangrove replanting and carbon conservation. measurement. 36 The BAU emissions from deforestation and degradation The impact of LEDS actions are reduced emissions are shown in Figure 20, and the low emissions pathway (increase in removals) of 17.5 million tonnes of CO2-e of the agriculture, forestry and land use sector, after per year in 2050 compared with BAU development. forest carbon withdrawals is shown in Figure 21 below. FIGURE 20. BAU emissions from deforestation and forest degradation Business as usual emissions - Annual emissions from deforestation and degradation 25 Annual emissions, million tonnes CO2-e 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 FRL Emissions Estimate LEDS Emissions Estimate FIGURE 21. Emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use sector in the low emissions pathway Low Emissions Pathway: Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Change - Annual forest carbon removals, million tons CO2-e 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 -5 -10 -15 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 37

4.4 AGRICULTURE Under the IPCC methodology for GHG emissions gas inventory supplied by Solomon Islands in National reporting, agriculture is responsible for emissions Communications, the emissions from agriculture are not where forest clearing and conversion occurs, and where estimated in the LEDS. fertilisers are applied, and flooding and draining land. The application of synthetic or organic fertilisers that Though emissions from agriculture are not directly increases the nitrogen content of the soil will, in turn, estimated in the LEDS, there were transition steps increase emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Organic for Solomon Islands agriculture that were identified fertilisers include manure, in which case, the emissions through the LEDS process. These steps target from manure management may be included in the community resilience and are aligned with Solomon livestock emissions estimates. Islands Agriculture Sector Growth Strategy and Investment Plan (ASGSIP) 2021–2030. The ASGSIP For Solomon Islands emissions from agriculture, the contains a much larger range of actions that support conversion of forest land to cropping is covered in the community resilience beyond these identified in the preceding section on forest management. The available LEDS. The alignment of LEDS and ASGSIP supports data sources for Solomon Islands indicate low or recognition of the agriculture sector as essential for sporadic imports of inorganic fertiliser. There is limited community resilience. evidence of flood irrigation and large-scale swamp drainage for agriculture. In keeping with the greenhouse These LEDS steps are shown below. LEDS step Measured by Target 4. Agriculture

4.1 Support organic agriculture Imported inorganic fertiliser and Low imports maintained through to to avoid inorganic fertiliser agricultural chemicals. 2050. use and Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs).

4.2 Improved agriculture practices Agricultural production levels. Increasing production levels over and technology to improve time, despite changing climate. resilience to climate change. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) © GGGI 38

4.5 LIVESTOCK Livestock emissions are generated through enteric The ambitions of Solomon Islands Agriculture Sector fermentation and release of methane, as well as livestock Growth Strategy and Investment Plan (ASGSIP) manure which releases methane and nitrous oxide. The 2021–2030 include growing herd sizes for cattle, pig, animal type, the herd size, climate and production type and poultry through support for both small-holder determine the size of emissions from the livestock sector. and commercial scale production and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). The desirable commercial scale of FAO data on the livestock production provide herd production and the emissions level were not specified sizes for cattle and swine (pig) but not for horses, in the ASGSIP. goat, or poultry. There are significant populations of chickens in Solomon Islands in association with the To project livestock production to 2050 in the BAU village and subsistence livelihoods, but there are no and low emissions pathways, the latest available herd commercial scale poultry operations. Of the cattle and sizes are extended in time. The herd size projections are swine herd sizes, there is a predominance of swine shown in Figure 6. (pig) which reflects cultural value as much as a source of protein. Through consultation on the low emissions development strategy, stakeholders identified several actions to prepare the livestock sector for GHG emissions reporting and reductions. The actions are identified below. LEDS step Measured by Target 5. Livestock

5.1 Develop emissions target for Emissions target included in Emissions target included in the livestock sector, to help guide livestock strategy. subsequent livestock strategy from national reporting of GHGs. 2030.

5.2 Stock genetics improvement. Breeding herds established and Two breeding herds established by maintained. 2030. Improving stock genetics has the potential to improve incorporated into the ambitions to reduce net national growth factors for stock and reducing the methane emissions as well. emissions per head of stock. Coupled with improved The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) production systems, such as adequate water and fodder, The low emissions pathway of the livestock sector, is these improvements would reduce the emissions from shown in Figure 22 below. The impact of LEDS actions the livestock sector while maintaining the same herd is 80 tonnes of CO2-e per year in 2050 compared with size. Any plans to enlarge the herd size should be BAU development. 39 FIGURE 22. Emissions from the livestock sector in the low emissions pathway Livestock sector total emissions: BAU and LEDS Pathways 140 GHG emissions, CO2-e, thousand tonnes 120 100 80 60 40 20 - 0 2005 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 LEDS Pathway

4.6 WASTE SECTOR Concerns for the waste sector primarily focus on human The current National Waste Management and health risk and contamination from limited collection Pollution Control Strategy 2016–2026 puts forward a systems and poor-quality infrastructure and undesirable holistic approach to waste management that includes siting. The emissions from solid waste generation institutional and infrastructure building, capacity building and financing to address major challenges of and management and waste water generation and land availability for landfills, limited financial resources, management are additional areas of national concern. limited human resources, poor coordination, limited awareness and poor collection systems. There are synergies in addressing the issues of waste collection and management. Better waste streaming and Stakeholders have put forward transition steps towards processing both reduces contamination and emissions. a low emissions pathway for Solomon Islands as below: The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) LEDS step Measured by Target 6. Waste management

6.1 Improve landfill infrastructure Establishment of a new waste Relocation from Ranadi to a new to better sort and process municipal management facility for Honiara. improved facility by 2035. solid waste.

6.2 Honiara faecal sludge treatment Faecal sludge treatment and Establishment of faecal sludge and regulations. regulations. treatment facility and supporting regulations for Honiara by 2035. 40 Reducing the organic components of municipal solid The low emissions pathway of the waste sector is shown waste through better sorting and processing would reduce in Figure 24 below. The impact of LEDS actions is a emissions from landfill. The existing waste surveys indicate reduction of emissions of 25,000 tonnes of CO2-e per that kitchen and garden waste constitute about 60 per year in 2050 compared with BAU development. cent of solid waste in Honiara, about 1 kg per person per day on average. The low emissions pathway put forward in this strategy seeks to reduce that volume and share to 44 of 0.67 kg per person per day (see Figure 23 below). FIGURE 23. Composition of municipal solid waste for BAU and low emissions pathways Composition of municipal solid waste in Solomon Islands LEDS from 2030, 0.67 kg/person/day BAU, 2015 Honiara Survey, 0.97 kg/person/day BAU, 2011 Honiara Survey, 0.48 kg/person/day 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Kitchen & garden waste Paper Plastic Metals Textiles Rubber Glass Inerts Others FIGURE 24. Emissions from the waste sector in the low emissions pathway Low emissions pathway - waste sector emissions 800 700 600 Thousand tonnes CO2-e The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 500 400 300 200 100 - 2000 2003 2006 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 41

4.7 VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS The 2050 vision for Solomon Islands identified in this > Expand the national census data gathering strategy includes resilient communities. Though there to obtain information on extreme events, are economic and social considerations for resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation. this section focuses on climate change impacts on communities and their resilience. > Mainstreaming vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction across public, private, Solomon Islands communities have a high exposure to and community sectors. climate change related impacts, in the form of cyclones and sea level rise. The projected climate scenarios for > Develop a coordinated and geo-referenced Solomon Islands indicate that the period to 2050 will national information system to information see more extreme cyclones and sea level rise. More than vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk 80 per cent of Solomon Islanders reside in coastal areas reduction. and are exposed to flooding, storm surges, and king tides. Already some communities have been displaced. > Implement ecosystem-based vulnerability assessments and protected areas legislation. Solomon Islands National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2008) identified priority activities in agriculture, > Vulnerability and risk reduction assessments for water supply and sanitation, human settlements, human Honiara and other town centres, as well as rural health, coastal protection, waste management and centres. infrastructure development. > Revise environmental laws and impact From 2013, the Solomon Islands Government has assessments to integrate climate change. undertaken vulnerability assessment and supported efforts > Mainstream gender and youth considerations to enhance adaptive capacity. Vulnerability assessment into vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk is complex, and while recognised at a national level, the reduction. provincial and local community level vulnerabilities and needs may be a more appropriate scale. Through Solomon > Develop a community/human relocation Islands Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (IVA), the guidelines and assessment tools, build capacity Solomon Islands Government has worked with regional and implement relocation of communities as an and international partners to undertake assessments in a adaptation action where and when necessary. range of provinces and communities19. > Strengthen capacity of Solomon Islands The 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions identified Meteorological Services and National Disaster a range of priority activities in adaptation, including: Management Office to provide appropriate field instrumentation and early warning systems The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) > Developing a National Adaptation Plan to with special focus on regions in the country address climate change over the short, medium, more vulnerable to extreme climate events. and long term. The NAP shall address long-term adaptation to climate change and short-term > Promote and implement community-based disaster risk reduction in relation to climate programmes and actions within a cooperative variability and included in an implementation framework to strengthen social capital, skills, plan. and resilience as an adaptation strategy. > Integrate traditional knowledge into > Implementation of Solomon Islands National vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk Ocean Policy. reduction assessments. 19 Sites include Choiseul, Temotu, East Malaita, and Reef Islands. 42 Over the long term and as envisaged by the LEDS, the adaptation, as detailed in the NDC, provides a strong mainstreaming of vulnerability and resilience concerns basis for the Solomon Islands Government to incorporate into different sector policies will be essential to plan for vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience concerns into a resilient future. The published work programme on sector and national policies.

4.8 ENABLING INSTITUTIONS: STRENGTHEN POLICY AND ADMINISTRATION THROUGH CONSOLIDATED FOREST PROTECTION AND CLIMATE POLICY Four enabling institutions are identified as essential to > Fostering carbon markets to generate revenue achieve the vision and guide the pathway for Solomon from intact forests. Islands Low Emissions Development Strategy. These four enabling institutions weave together many > Channelling international climate finance enabling actions across sectors and support long-term through a climate change trust fund. development (see Figure 25 below). The four enabling actions are the following: > Build data management and reporting capability to support domestic policy and international > Strengthening policy and administration transparency obligations. through consolidated forest protection and climate policy. FIGURE 25. The four enabling institutions mutually supporting the long-term development pathway of the Solomon Islands Financing vehicle Policy and administration The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Carbon markets Data management 43 Starting with policy and administration, it is essential that can conflict with other priorities for forest protection government policy coordination and public administration and conservation. are improved to support the transition to a low emissions pathway for Solomon Islands. Coordination gaps and low Stakeholders supported the integration of the forest administrative capacity impacts policy coherence, project conservation policy and climate policy, as it aligns development and management, and public financial reporting of national greenhouse gas inventories management and transparency. and forest sector emissions, through national communications (NC) and reporting on Forest Reference The 2022 Climate Finance Roadmap noted several Level (FRL). The FRL undergoes a technical assessment challenges for institutional coordination and delivery, process by the UNFCCC secretariat and it is Solomon including: Islands official forest emissions estimate. The forest sector removals estimated in the FRL and the NCs need > Capacity to manage and coordinate existing to be consistent. Integration of forestry conservation projects. and climate policy will ensure that resources for measurement and reporting are directed towards the > Reporting and tracking climate-related activities areas of highest impact. and funds already mobilised. > Diversion and splintering of effort across multiple departments and at multiple government levels. > Following procedures to access international climate fund requirements. Transition to a low emissions, equitable and resilience pathway requires coordinated action and support for delivery from the Solomon Islands Government, donors, and development partners. As noted in the NDC, Solomon Islands seeks assistance with financial resources, technology, and capacity building to achieve its conditional commitments. Over the long term, the Solomon Islands Government will achieve greater effectiveness and realise efficiencies of administration if it were to concentrate government resources towards areas of greatest need and impact. In this case, consolidating forest conservation policy and climate policy would concentrate resources on the single largest driver of emissions. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Consolidating areas of common policy responsibility into one body or portfolio assists coordination and coherence. In the case of Solomon Islands, climate change policy and forestry area policy should be combined, as the forestry outcomes are the biggest drivers of emissions. Forestry industry policy and rural economy may be better separated from forest area policy and forest protection, due to conflicting incentives. Current forest industry policy reflects the priority of economic harvesting of forests for revenue, employment, and exports, which © GGGI 44 Additional assistance to administration should be given to deliver climate and forestry policy coordination and through legislating functions and providing sufficient coherence: staffing to fulfil functions. Well-crafted legislation provides a strong foundation for regulatory activities > Establishment of a ministry, department, or such as permits or licencing, particularly where strong agency which incorporates climate and forest interests and incentives challenge policy. Sufficient protection policy responsibility (as seen in staffing is needed to fulfil obligations, though core staff Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Brazil). may be complemented through project-funded staff. The support and participation of key ministries and agencies > Establishment of a coordination mechanism such as the Public Service Commission, Ministry of in law between climate and forest policy (as in Public Service and Office of the Prime Minister will be Vanuatu, Fiji). needed to deliver this change. > Establishment of an independent climate Looking outside of Solomon Islands, there are several regulator which reports both climate and forest alternative models for marshalling government resources policy outcomes (as in Australia, New Zealand) Case study of concentrating government resources: Climate Change Development Authority (CCDA), Papua New Guinea The Climate Change Development Authority (CCDA) was established in 2016 and superseded the Office of Climate Change and Development (2010–2016). The establishment, purpose, functions, and powers were established through the Climate Change (Management) Act 201520. The CCDA was established for the following purposes: > Promote the management and sustainable development of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions. > Implement any relevant obligations of the State under applicable rules of International Law and agreements related to climate change. > Act as PNG’s Designated National Authority (DNA) for the purposes of the Paris Agreement and any such other or subsequent arrangements or agreements made under the Paris Agreement, and related purposes. Under these arrangements, CCDA is the DNA for the issuance of Host Country Letter of Approval for all projects and activities related to Carbon Trading or any form of Carbon Offset Projects. > Establish and administer trust funds that facilitate the control and distribution of the received benefits and levies. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) The four divisions of the CCDA are the following: > REDD+ and Mitigation. > Adaptation and Projects. > Measurement Reporting and Verification (MRV) and National Communication (NC). > Corporate Services. By combining REDD+ and mitigation policy areas, CCDA integrates forestry into PNG’s sustainable development ambitions. 20 Climate Change (Management) Act available here: https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Climate%20Change%20 %28Management%29%20Act%202015.pdf. 45 Given the circumstances affecting Solomon Islands, with Consultation through the LEDS development process high impact of forest policy administration on climate Through consultation with stakeholders, the following outcomes, the greatest benefit may be achieved from the action is identified to assist Solomon Islands to achieve first option of integrating forestry conservation policy the vision and pathway of the LEDS. with climate policy. Furthermore, the establishment of a separate authority or agency for climate and forestry policy provides an opportunity to pursue clearer goals than would otherwise be the case in blended ministries with competing priorities. LEDS step Measured by Target 7. Enabling Institutions

7.1 Consolidate climate and forest Establishment of a Climate Change Authority established by 2030. protection policy areas to better and Forest Area Authority or achieve emissions reductions goals. equivalent.

4.9 ENABLING INSTITUTIONS: CARBON MARKETS The establishment of carbon markets, particularly forest created under the Kyoto Protocol Clean Development carbon markets, has the potential to channel resources Mechanism (CDM), though Solomon Islands did not and revenue to support the low emissions pathway. In establish any projects under the CDM with any Certified particular, forest carbon markets can generate revenue Emissions Reductions (CER). for local communities while leaving forest and mangrove ecosystems left intact. Solomon Islands is a potential seller of carbon credits under Article 6 or other type of carbon trading. The large Voluntary forest carbon projects exist already in forest area can remove substantial volumes of carbon Solomon Islands, with the Babatana Project along dioxide, well beyond the emissions that are generated Kolombangara River, South Choiseul21. Unlike forest from human activities. The value of forests in situ (where felling and milling licences, the Solomon Islands they are, without destruction) can be realised in the Government does not currently licence and earn form of cash payments through carbon trading. Cash revenue from forest carbon credits. from carbon trading may form part of the solution to excessive logging and forest loss. Solomon Islands NDC states that it intends to participate The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) in the international carbon markets, particularly under Establishing a carbon market unit may provide the Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Article 6 of the Paris necessary resources for Solomon Islands to develop Agreement allows countries to trade carbon credits in blue carbon opportunities. Blue carbon opportunities order to meet international commitments, particularly to may arise from sea grass, mangrove, seaweed, and net zero emissions by 2050. deep ocean sequestration. A carbon market unit may assist with setting up other forms of nature-based At the time of LEDS development, parties to the transactions such as debt-for-nature swaps and Paris Agreement are developing the mechanism for results‑based payments. international trade under Article 6. This includes the rules, modalities, and procedures. There is some The value of the carbon credits sold by Solomon international interest in crediting the carbon credits Islands, whether in private transactions or between 21 Nakau programme website here: https://www.nakau.org/babatana-solomon-islands.html. 46 countries through Article 6 transactions, will depend Industry advice received during consultation for the on the integrity of the credits sold. Integrity of carbon LEDS indicated that, in the absence of policy and credit reflects the permanence of carbon removal, institutional framework, there would be no development the verified and quantified carbon removal, the of carbon markets in Solomon Islands. Forest carbon supporting institutional arrangements, and the social sites may receive protection through the Protected and environmental safeguards. These institutional Area Act 2010, but the requirements on landowners arrangements and systems will need to be in place, and may be so onerous as to discourage participation in supported by legislation, to maximise the integrity and voluntary markets. In the absence of forest carbon value, value of any carbon credits sold by the Solomon Islands landowners will continue to drift towards logging as a Government or project proponents. revenue source and community development pathway. LEDS step Measured by Target

7.2 Develop programme to enable Establish carbon market unit Unit established by 2030. participation in public and private within the Government, enabling carbon markets, including Article 6 legislation, policy, and a market transactions. development plan. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) © GGGI 47

4.10 ENABLING INSTITUTIONS: FINANCING Substantial international and domestic finance and investment will be needed to meet Solomon Islands ambitions for low emissions development. In 2022, the Solomon Islands Government developed a climate finance roadmap22 and established a National Climate Finance Steering Committee and secretariat23. The committee is co-chaired between the Permanent Secretaries of MECDM and MoFT. The Secretariat is established in MECDM and MoFT. The National Climate Finance Steering Committee’s role includes advising and coordinating with major multilateral and bilateral climate and environment funds, whose resources are needed to support the low emissions and resilience development of Solomon Islands. Financing Solomon Islands response to climate change includes both mobilising more funding from international sources as well as managing and accounting the existing funding in an efficient and transparent manner. To that end, the 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) included a range of measures to provide training and establish systems to meet donor requirements. International experience with implementing climate actions in NDCs shows that multiple government ministries and line agencies will need support for public financial management24. The increasing overlap between sectors, such as forestry and climate change, or energy and transport, will necessitate involvement of two or more ministries for larger projects. Global estimates of inefficiencies in public investment management of infrastructure projects indicate a loss of about a third of public funds through poor financial management25. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 22 Roadmap: https://solomons.gov.sb/wp-content/ uploads/2022/12/UNDP-Solomon-Is-Roadmap-for-Improving- Access-to-Climate-Finance-and-Public-Spending-2022-2027- HRv1-web.pdf. 23 Committee: https://solomons.gov.sb/solomon-islands-climate- finance-steering-committee-agrees-on-key-processes-to-access- gcf-funds-and-other-multilateral-environment-funds/. 24 See Bird (2017): https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/ National-budgeting-for-NDCs_web.pdf. 25 See Schwartz et al 2020 Well Spent: How Strong Infrastructure Governance Can End Waste in Public Investment here: https:// www.imf.org/en/Publications/Books/Issues/2020/09/03/Well- Spent-How-Strong-Infrastructure-Governance-Can-End-Waste- in-Public-Investment-48603. © GGGI 48 The Solomon Islands Roadmap for Improving Access to climate finance access, over the long term it may be Climate Finance and Public Spending (2022) developed prudent to establish a national climate trust fund as a an action plan for a Climate Finance Resilience Unit within specialised vehicle for international climate finance. the MoFT. Actions were framed around three pillars, A national climate change trust fund will likely better with an eventual outcome of establishing the CFRU on a meet the three pillars of actions identified in the Climate sustainable basis from recurring government funds. The Finance Roadmap than the BAU approach of managing three pillars were: access to finance, improving resource within existing legislation, institutions, policies, and management, and transparency and accounting. public financial management information systems (see Table 11 below). In the near term, implementing the While the Climate Finance Roadmap sets out worthwhile actions in the Climate Finance Roadmap will assist actions to meet the identified short-term needs of Solomon Islands to improve access to climate finance. TABLE 11. Comparison of BAU pathway and long-term LEDS pathway to meet the needs of improving climate finance access for Solomon Islands, as identified in the 2022 Roadmap 2022 Climate finance roadmap BAU pathway of managing Long-term LEDS pathway, pillar within existing institutions and developing a Climate Change processes Trust Fund and new processes Pillar 1 – Access to finance, and in Seek GCF accreditation of three Conceive and establish a specialised particular accreditation with GCF entities (MoFT, Transport Fund, fund for the purpose of accessing and other global funds. Development Bank of Solomon and consolidating climate finance Islands) using their existing public from international funds and donors, financial management systems. while providing a robust system for domestic climate action with the ability to finance government, community, and private sectors. Pillar 2 – Improving resource Update the Government Financial Robust financing vehicle with management, in particular the Management Information System to statement of income and alignment of expenditure with include climate finance expenditure expenditure which can all be tagged climate priorities and climate tagging, with accompanying training ‘climate’ unless by exception, and budget tagging. for relevant government personnel. which must report annually in Climate budgets produced as alignment with the Government needed. budget cycle. Pillar 3 – Transparency and Climate project expenditure Trust fund may be required to table accountability, in particular the consolidated with recurrent budget annual report to Parliament for accountability to Parliament, expenditure, unless additional scrutiny. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) auditors, and citizens. reporting requested. Cross cutting: Governance, Voluntary participation of A National Climate Change Trust coordination and M&E, particularly departments and donors in Fund in legislation, and providing a coordination and awareness raising. coordination by the Climate common national climate financing Finance Resilience Unit. vehicle known to government, donors, and development partners. 49 The Solomon Islands Government has previously stated Meeting these requirements is a challenge for a newly intent to develop a Climate Trust Fund1, or test the established trust fund, but it may be a lower challenge feasibility2, although the policy and legislation have than for an existing government ministry or agency to not been developed to a stage of publication. A range meet international requirements. The requirements of of models of climate funds exist and may be tailored to donors and multilateral funds should be considered as suit the context of Solomon Islands3. The Constitution part of the design and feasibility testing of a trust fund. of Solomon Islands permits the establishment of Special Funds (s100) outside of the Consolidated Revenue The trust fund should be able to invest in applied Fund, and existing funds include the Protected Areas research and development of the low emissions Trust Fund and the National Forest Trust Fund. There pathways for Solomon Islands, as well as priority sectors may be lessons to be found in the experience within for emissions mitigation and adaptation. Research and Solomon Islands and abroad, such as the establishment development can be sector driven, such as climate- of the Micronesia Conservation Trust4. resilient agriculture, or cross-sectoral, such as climate- resilient food systems. Potential focus areas for applied The donor support and international requirements research and development include domestic low for funding a trust fund remain to be assessed. These emissions energy sources, low emissions transport, requirements include the governance arrangements, low emissions industrial technology, climate-resilient project appraisal processes, reporting capability and agriculture, and adaptation practices. processes, and environment and social safeguards. LEDS step Measured by Target

7.3 Establish National Climate Establishment of fund with enabling Fund established by 2030. Change Trust Fund to consolidate legislation. international assistance and financial reporting requirements, and channel investment into needed areas including R&D. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 26 Solomon Islands NDC 2021. 27 Solomon Islands Climate Change and Disaster Risk Finance Assessment, 2017. 28 See Irawan, et al. (2012). Budgeting for NDC action: Initial lessons from four climate-vulnerable countries, here: https://www.climatefinance- developmenteffectiveness.org/sites/default/files/publication/attach/UNDP_National_Climate_Fund_2012_Web.pdf. 29 Micronesia Conservation Trust had over USD 24 M in assets and disbursed over USD 5 M in grants in 2019, available here: http://www. ourmicronesia.org/. 50

4.11 ENABLING INSTITUTIONS: DATA MANAGEMENT Over the long term to 2050, the Solomon Islands Reporting, and Verification (MRV), which will assist Government must build institutions, systems and Solomon Islands to meet its UNFCCC obligations for processes for data management on climate change enhanced transparency31. In addition to meeting the related concerns, such as emissions and emissions- UNFCCC enhanced transparency framework by 202432, generating activity, carbon rights and registries, climate the MECDM and MoFR have work programmes, which vulnerability and resilience assessments. include establishing or maintaining large databases with geospatial elements: national forest inventory, forest In addition to the GHG emissions inventory, emissions- logging licences, integrated vulnerable analysis, and generating activity data are needed to qualify for community solar schemes. activity- or results-based payment schemes under major international frameworks (such as REDD+, Kyoto, Furthermore, to establish carbon trading at a project, and Paris Agreements) as well as bespoke framework national, or international scale, will require robust agreements that Solomon Islands may wish to develop or carbon accounting and reporting systems. These may be join (such as the Indo-Pacific Carbon Offset Scheme30). managed by national statistical agencies or specialised units within different ministries. This long-term action is Already the Solomon Islands Government has committed detailed below. to developing a long-term programme for Monitoring, LEDS step Measured by Target

7.4 Establish institutional Establishment of a dedicated unit Unit established by 2030. arrangements to build local capacity with enabling legislation. to independently measure and report emissions and emissions- related activity. 30 https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/international-commitments/indo-pacific-region. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 31 Solomon Islands NDC 2021. 32 UNFCCC ETF, available here: https://unfccc.int/Transparency. 51 5 5. Summary of steps towards Solomon Islands low emissions, equitable and resilient pathway The pathway to low emissions, equitable and resilient Steps must be taken to put Solomon Islands onto a low future for Solomon Islands is comprised of a vision, emissions, equitable and resilient pathway. There is 20 emissions estimates and steps. The strategy serves to steps identified in the Solomon Islands LEDS (see Table complement and support existing short- and medium- 12 below). Some steps can be taken in the short term, term strategies such as the National Development and have already been taken through sector policies and Strategy 2016–2035, sector strategies such as the programmes. Other steps are identified here and must National Forest Policy 2020, as well as cross-cutting be taken over the long term. strategies such as the National Climate Change Policy. The steps with the largest impact on emissions are The 2050 vision for Solomon Islands has guided the those that reduce forest loss and degradation from development of the emissions pathway and steps. The logging (Steps 3.1 and 3.2). The reduction in logging vision includes net zero emissions across all sectors to a sustainable level of 250,000 m3 per year, and a through to 2050 with equitable growth and resilience. transition to a more sustainable industry basis with The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) greater value‑addition, is recommended in National Forest Policy 2020. To successfully realise this change Solomon Islands aims to asks for actions from government, industry and development partners, including government legislative maintain net zero emissions and administrative changes to enable data gathering, carbon market development and financing structures. across all sectors by 2050, with equitable economic Sustainable forest management and reduced timber harvesting has the potential to reduce emissions by growth and resilience. over 17 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent by 2050, far outweighing the 0.4 million tonnes from energy, transport, waste, and livestock sector’s changes (see Figure 26). 52 Through this LEDS, further opportunities for low policy and forest area management gives further emissions, equitable and resilient development are opportunities to integrate government functions in identified. These LEDS steps are to be incorporated a single organisation. The proposed Climate Change into sector strategies, and further tailored to sector and Forest Area Authority, plus accompanying Climate constraints. As an overarching and long-term strategy, Change Trust Fund, would establish a strong legal the LEDS provides directions towards a sustainable basis and government administrative arrangements pathway while respecting the policy domains and to support data management, carbon markets access, technical analysis needed for implementation planning climate finance mobilisation, and coordination within in each sector. For example, the LEDS has identified the Government. opportunity to better integrate emissions considerations into the livestock sector strategy (Step 5.1). Establishing these enabling institutions requires actions across multiple sectors and policy domains. Further This LEDS recommends building enabling institutions thoughtful and detailed planning support is needed to to support the transition to sustainable forest start building these important institutions. Appendix 2 management and a reduction of harvesting, as well as provides next steps in implementation planning for facilitating actions in other sectors. The alignment of enabling these institutions. interests and mutual dependence between climate The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) © GGGI 53 TABLE 12. Summary of steps identified to transition Solomon Islands to a low emissions, equitable growth and resilient pathway 1. Energy

1.1 Increase renewable energy generation, particularly from hydroelectricity and solar.

1.2 Mobilise international and domestic funds for rural electrification.

1.3 Establish a regulatory framework to enable Independent Power Producers (IPPs). 2. Transport

2.1 Improve land transport efficiency.

2.2 Introduce electric vehicles and charging infrastructure.

2.3 Improved measurement and efficiency of maritime transport.

2.4 Introduce zero emissions technology and infrastructure for maritime transport.

2.5 Improve efficiency and technology of domestic shipping 3. Forestry

3.1 Reduce rate of forest clearing through tighter regulations on access or logging practice.

3.2 Increase forest area protected under Protected Area Act 2010.

3.3 Community volunteer and private managed forest programmes

3.4 Reafforestation programmes to replant degraded and previously logged areas with native forest.

3.5 Mangrove replanting and land reclamation for carbon conservation. 4. Agriculture

4.1 Support organic agriculture to avoid inorganic fertiliser use and Persistent Organic Pollutants (PoPs).

4.2 Improved agriculture practices and technology to improve resilience to climate change. 5. Livestock

5.1 Develop emissions target for livestock sector, to help guide national reporting of GHGs.

5.2 Stock genetics improvement. 6. Waste management

6.1 Improve landfill infrastructure to better sort and process municipal solid waste.

6.2 Honiara faecal sludge treatment and regulations. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 6. Enabling institutions

7.1 Consolidate climate and forest protection policy areas to better achieve emissions reductions goals.

7.2 Develop a programme to enable participation in public and private carbon markets, including Article 6 transactions.

7.3 Establish National Climate Change Trust to consolidate international assistance and financial reporting requirements, and channel investment into needed areas including R&D.

7.4 Establish institutional arrangements and build local capacity to independently measure and report emissions and emissions-related activity. 54 FIGURE 26. Emissions reductions from reduced forest degradation and loss far outweigh the emissions reductions actions in other sectors Low emissions pathway - Annual emissions reductions by sector in 2050, CO ²e million tonnes Energy, transport, waste, livestock -0.4 -17.6 Forestry The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 55

Appendix 1. Solomon Islands Forest Industry: Capturing greater value from lower volumes The forest industry is a large contributor to government Over the past 20 years, the volume of unmilled round logs revenue and local economies. Logging permits and exported has increased from approximately 500,000 m3 to licencing revenue has accounted for 15–20 per cent of as high as 3,140,000 m3 in 2018. Over the same period, government revenues and 60–70 per cent of foreign the export of sawn timber has increased from 4,000 m3 earnings33. to 22,000 m3. The proportion of timber export volumes as sawn timber has remained under 2 per cent, at an average The vast majority of Solomon Islands’ forest industry of 0.8 per cent (see Figure A1.1 below). exports, in both value and quantity, are unmilled round logs. FIGURE A1.1. Solomon Islands forest product exports 2000–2021 (Source: FAO Statistics) Solomon Islands forest product exports: round logs and sawn timber 2000-2021 4,000,000 8% Proportion of total exports as milled timber % 3,500,000 7% 3,000,000 6% Export volume, m³ 2,500,000 5% 2,000,000 4% 1,500,000 3% 1,000,000 2% 500,000 1% - 0% The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Roundwood logs m³ Sawn timber m³ Milled timber export proportion % 33 SI National Forest Policy 2020, available here: https://www.mofr.gov.sb/documents/LegislationAndRegulation/SI%20National%20Forest%20 Policy%202020.pdf. 56 In a BAU pathway, Solomon Islands continue to harvest forest product exports might shrink to as little as SBD and export timber at high rates, with low levels of timber 150 million (USD 18 million). This would be a substantial milling in the country. Log harvesting brings with it a reduction in forest product export value of over 90 per promise of development, namely through construction cent from SBD 2.2 billion (USD 264 million) in 2016. of roads, schools, churches, and other infrastructure and community facilities34. In a low emissions development pathway, with industry development of milling, legality assurance, and quality Yet the value of forest products currently exported control, there is potential to harvest a much lower remains low. The value of round logs ranges from SBD volume of timber while also growing the value of exports. 150–2,000 (USD 18–275) per m3, depending on the grade. The value of sawn timber is higher, around SBD The value increase from timber processing into finished 6,000 (USD 720) per m3 and up to SBD 12,000 (USD form, such as decking and floorboards, can increase the 1,440) per m3 for rosewood and sought-after species. value of exports while simultaneously reducing the rate The costs of milling are low, particularly with portable of forest product harvesting. It is also pertinent to know mills, which means a great amount of export profit is not that the value of finished timber products such as decking being captured within the country. and floorboards can be 50 times the value of round logs. Even after the conversion losses of 46 per cent to 64 The transition to a sustainable harvest level at current per cent, the value of a sustainable harvest of timber forest industry practices would be highly challenging that is milled and machine to grade has the potential to for both government and forest-industry dependent increase the value of exports from the forestry sector economies. Should Solomon Islands reduce harvesting to from SBD 2.2 billion to over SBD 2.7 billion (see Figure a sustainable rate of 250,000 m3 per year and continue A1.2 below). The profits retained in the country will to export predominately round logs, the total value of depend on the costs of milling and export. FIGURE A1.2. Value of 250,000 m3 of harvested timber as round log, rough sawn timber, and finished decking (Sources: Prices from industry consultation, UNECE for conversion efficiency factors of roundwood to sawn timber35) Value of 250,000 m3 of timber harvested SBD million Solomon Islands Dollars, 2023, SBD 3,000 2,758 2,500 2,000 1,500 2016 total timber export value SBD 2,200 million 1,000 798 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 500 150 - As round log As rough sawn timber As decking (green, wholesale) (green, wholesale (dried, planed, retail prices) 34 Minter, et al. 2018, provides case studies available here: https://pacific-data.sprep.org/system/files/From%20happy%20hour%20to%20 hungry%20hour_logging%2C%20fisheries%20and%20food%20security%20in%20Malaita%2C%20SI.pdf. 35 UNECE, p. 16, Non-conifer conversion factor round wood to sawn wood and dried planed wood, available here: https://unece.org/fileadmin/ DAM/timber/publications/DP-49.pdf. 57 The Solomon Islands Government and industry are already plywood, medium density fibreboard (MDF), and glue taking actions to increase the value addition for forest laminated timber, woodchips and shavings, as well as products. Standard export licence conditions include the expanded sustainable plantation timber production, requirement to mill at least 8 per cent of actual felled and expanded complementary industries such as eco- timber, but regulation and enforcement remains lacking tourism and biofuel. Development partner assistance will and ineffective. The National Forest Policy 2020 sets out be needed with technology imports and training, parts, an ambitious agenda for forest industry development and service support, skills development and regulation. through the Forest Economics and Marketing Strategy. The National Forest Policy 2020 sets out a broad agenda Industry cooperation programmes such as the Value- for industry development. Added Timber Association (VATA), will assist to connect small timber lots with mills and marketing. Regulatory action may be needed to support industry transition away from log exports towards sawn Further intensification of industry support is needed if timber and value-added products. Strong regulatory transition to a lower harvest volume is to be achieved action such as a ban on round log exports could be without a reduction in government revenues and implemented and enforced within existing monitoring export value. There are currently no working sawmills regimes, while learning from its successful introduction in the country that are capable of drying and producing in Indonesia36. Increasing the minimum percentage decking, floorboards, or similar high value milled timber milling requirement, which is currently set at 8 per cent, products. Solomon Islands forest industry could expand may be ineffective without increasing the permitting into other value-added timber products like furniture, and enforcement systems. The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 36 The Government of Indonesia log export ban from 1985 and reiterated in subsequent decades, available here: https://agris.fao.org/agris-search/ search.do?recordID=US202100084723 and https://www.itto.int/news_releases/id=2610000. 58

Appendix 2. Implementation of enabling institutions The implementation of enabling institutions for Solomon II. Secure resources to develop an institutional Islands LEDS is expected to take five years and cost framework. approximately USD 3 to 5 million. III. Detailed framework developed and tested. The process of implementation of enabling institutions will take several years, particularly as legislative change IV. Reviews and approval by civil service, ministers, is needed. The key steps in this process are the following and the Parliament. (see Figure A2.1 below): V. Launch of new institutions and transition of I. Secure government and stakeholder support business and government processes. for institutional change. FIGURE A2.1. Key steps in implementing the enabling institutions of Solomon Islands LEDS. 1. Secure government and stakeholder support 2. Secure resources Government endorsement of 3. Detailed framework development LEDS and steps towards low Project scoping emissions pathway exercise with 4. Reviews and approvals development Industry and partner New and amended community sector legislation 5. Launch understanding and Sponsorship of TA Central agencies and and seed capital for New and amended support regulations public service climate trust fund commission Policy Institution launch and Technical advisor(s) Ministers and the awareness raising apppointed Industry engagement Parliament mechanism Business process Parliament approval change management Study tour to and gazetting different jurisdictions Government process The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) change management When securing government support, recognition should For clarity on transition and business processes, it be given to the role of the Public Service Commission and is important to recognise which responsibilities and Ministry of Public Service. These institutions are central functions will be moved to the proposed Climate to public administrative planning and transformation. Change and Forest Area Authority (CCFAA) and which are to stay with MECDM and MoFR. Figure A2.2 Through the LEDS development process, some of the below provides an initial design of legislation, policy, key features of the new enabling institutions have been programmes, and functions of MECD, CCFAA and identified. The Climate Change Trust Fund should be MoFR after implementation. established with international climate finance access in mind. The data management unit should be established to enable carbon trading. 59 FIGURE A2.2 Initial design of MECDM, CCFAA and MoFR after implementation, with respective legislation, policy, and functions. Items with an asterisk* are new functions and programmes enabled by legislation. MECDM CCFAA (new) MoFR Environment Act Forest Resource Legislation Climate Change 1998, Protected Timber Utilisation Act 20xx Areas Act 2010 Act 1970, CLP National Climate, Environment, Change Policy, National Forest Policy Biodiversity, DRR, National Forest Industry Policy Pollution Area Policy Protected areas Forest carbon market Forestry skills building, administration, early development*, industry value add and Programmes warning and DRR, community solar diversification, waste standards projects, REDD+ plantations Carbon trading*, Consent for consent for prescribed Licensing and permits Felling licence, prescribed development (forest milling licence development harvesting) GHG inventory and Felling licence, Development trading, NFI and database, Data management forest area land landowner consent use (GIS) approval records Administered funds Protected Areas Climate Change Forest Trust Trust Fund Trust Fund* SPREP focal, UNEP, Convention on NDS for UNFCCC, UN Forum on International cooperation Biodiversity REDD, CCD Forests Conservation, UNDRR *New functions and activities enabled by legislation and institutional change The proposed enabling institutions are related to each the design of others. For example, the establishment and The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) other. They establish a new policy and administrative design of a Climate Trust Fund should be reflected in the architecture, data management, funds administration, functions and powers of the Climate Change and Forest and international cooperation. The implementation of Area Authority. each of the enabling institutions should be reflected in 60

Appendix 3. Additional data Additional data is provided here to support continued analysis and to assist future project proposals and investment decisions. TABLE A3.1. Electrification rate in the LEDS pathway 2009 Census 2025 2050 Choiseul 4% 39% 100% Western 12% 47% 100% Isabel 6% 41% 100% Central 4% 39% 100% Rennel-Bellona 0% 35% 100% Guadalcanal 8% 43% 100% Malaita 3% 38% 100% Makira-Ulawa 4% 39% 100% Temotu 3% 38% 100% Honiara 64% 80% 100% Average – rural 4.9% 40% Average – urban 64% 80% TABLE A3.2. Solar and Hydropower combined generation capacity by province in LEDS pathway Generation capacity by province (MW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Honiara Guadalcanal (combined) 33.8 34.4 77.4 138.4 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) Central 0.5 1.8 1.8 2.8 Choiseul 0.4 1.7 2.7 3.7 Isabel 0.3 1.4 2.4 3.4 Makira-Ulawa 0.3 1.9 3.9 4.9 Malaita 1.3 6.5 10.5 17.5 Rennel-Bellona - 1.3 1.3 1.3 Temotu 0.3 1.6 1.6 2.6 Western Province 3.6 4.9 5.9 9.9 Total: 40.4 55.3 107.3 184.3 61 Table A3.3. Transport demand in the BAU and LEDS pathways Vehicle or vessel type Unit 2020 2030 2040 2050 Diesel vehicles million km 495 620 770 927 Petrol vehicles million km 219 275 341 411 Total land transport: million km 714 895 1,112 1,338 Diesel vessels (ships) thousand hours 66 83 103 124 Petrol vessels (small boats) thousand hours 137 171 213 256 Total maritime transport: thousand hours 203 254 316 380 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 62 © GGGI 63 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) 64 The Solomon Islands Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS)