Nigeria's Long-term Low-emission Development Strategy 2060

Section 1 the LT-LEDS. Provides Nigeria’s efforts towards decarbonisation and the enabling

Section 2 policies. Presents the National Emission Profiles and LT-LEDS Scenarios s for various sectors of the economy: agriculture, forestry, and other land

Section 3 use (AFOLU); energy; oil and gas; industry; transport, building, waste, and some cross-cutting sectors. The section also examines the country’s economic and development aspirations and challenges Outlines sectoral mitigation measures and development strategies

Section 4 that can be implemented to guide a transition to a low-carbon and sustainable economy.

Section 5 Discusses the adaptation measures and resilience-building strategies, Highlights the enabling innovations for effective and result-oriented

Section 6 implementation of the Nigeria LT-LEDS

Section 7 Highlights the implementation framework for the LT-LEDS 37 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 38 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 2. Nigeria 2. Nigeria’s Efforts towards Decarbonisation This Section presents Nigeria’s efforts and commitments towards net-zero emission and resilience buildings. It also highlights the enabling policies imperative for the 2060 net-zero emission target. 2.1 Nigeria’s Net-zero Emission Commitment at Glasgow At the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) held in Glasgow in 2021, the Federal Government of Nigeria made three significant pledges, which include the net-zero emission pledge, the global methane pledge, and the declaration on forest and land use. President Muhammadu Buhari pledged that Nigeria would cut down its emissions and reach net-zero emission by 2060. The role of gas in supporting renewable energy-based systems in the country’s energy transition roadmap is at the heart of this pledge. Furthermore, the President explained that 7GW of renewable energy would be added annually to address the country's clean energy shortage and that the government was committed to electrifying 5 million households with decentralised solar solutions by 2030. Also, the government joined other countries in pledging to reduce global methane emissions by 30% by 2030, below 2020 levels. Regarding forest and land use, 141 countries, including Nigeria, pledged to conserve and restore forests over the next 10 years. These pledges are very ambitious and require that many sectoral strategies be put in place and policies enforced to attain them. 2.2 Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Nigeria submitted its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2015 and updated them in 2021. The GHG assessment of Nigeria’s emissions profile in the updated NDC is estimated at 347 MMTCO 2e in 2018, with Energy, Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU), Waste and Industrial Processes and Other Product Use (IPPU) contributing approximately 60% (208.2 MMTCO2e), 25% (86.8 MMTCO 2e), 9% (31.2 MMTCO 2e) and 5% (17.4 MMTCO2e), respectively. If nothing is done, the emissions are expected to grow to an estimated value of 452.7 MMTCO2e by 2030. Nigeria’s NDC targets a reduction in its Business as Usual (BAU) emissions by 20% under the “Unconditional NDC” (updated Nigeria NDC, 2021) – if no external support is received. However, with the intervention of international assistance, Nigeria pledges a 47% emissions reduction below BAU by 2030. Strategic measures that the revised NDC enshrined to meet the target include: (i) ending gas flaring by 2030, (ii) elimination of diesel and petrol generators by 2030, (iii) 48% and 13% penetration of LPG and improved cookstoves, respectively, in the household sector, (iv) reduction in energy intensity by 2.5%, annually, across all sectors (v) 30% of grid-connected electricity generation from renewable energy, (vi) installation of 13GW of off-grid renewable energy, (vii) elimination of kerosene lighting by 2030, (viii) reducing transmission and distribution losses to 8% by 2030, 39 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 (ix) all vehicles to meet EURO IV emission limits by 2030, and (x) Bus Rapid Transport to account for 22.1% of passenger-km by 2035, while, 25% of trucks and buses to use CNG by 2030. 2.3 Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) Like the NDC, the Energy Transition Plan (ETP) provides a pathway for Nigeria to lower its emissions. The GHG assessment of Nigeria’s emissions in the ETP is estimated at 275 MMTCO2e in 2020, with approximately 65% (179 MMTCO2e) attributed to energy consumption and industrial processes. If there are no decarbonisation efforts, the emissions from energy consumption and industrial processes could reach 216 MMTCO2e and 322 MMTCO2e by 2030 and 2050, respectively. However, there is a significant difference between the emissions profile presented in the NDC and the ETP, possibly because of the ETP’s scope (focusing only on energy consumption sectors) and methodology. Unlike the NDC, the ETP provides a long-term path to achieving a net-zero society by 2050. The ETP provides two scenarios, the NDC-guided and net-zero scenarios. The net-zero scenario proposes that electric vehicles will make up 80% of vehicle fleets, while clean cooking will penetrate over 80% of households. In addition, the net-zero scenario also showed that the electricity installed capacity will be 250 GW by 2050, with renewables taking a share of more than 90% of the electricity capacity. 2.4 Nigeria’s Existing Policies for the 2060 Net-Zero Emissions The national path towards net-zero emission in 2060 will be effectively driven by the implementation of appropriate policies in the various sectors that have been analysed by LEAP-NGA. Nigeria has many policies, strategies and plans which have some relevance to national mitigation response to the challenges of climate change in sectors of national development. They constitute potential instruments that are imperative for the facilitation of an enabling environment for the strengthening of national resolve to drastically reduce the country’s GHG emissions, while still ensuring the sustainability of national development that is imperative for poverty reduction, job creation and inclusive social development. 2.4.1 Nigeria’s Climate Change Act, 2021 The Climate Change Act 2021 provides the legal framework for achieving low greenhouse gas emissions that is inclusive of green growth and sustainable economic development. The Act was signed into law in November 2021 by President Buhari. The Act demonstrates a commendable first step that Government has taken to meet its obligations to combat climate change under the various treaties it has subscribed. The Act provides a comprehensive regulatory framework to achieve its long-term climate goals, encompassing a net-zero target, funding, environmental and economic accountability, and championing climate actions. The Act ensures that Nigeria formulates programmes for achieving its long-term climate change mitigation and adaptation targets. The Act sets a target of 2050-2070 to attain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, in line with Nigeria’s international climate action commitments. Some important highlights of the Act are establishing the National Council on Climate Change, 40 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 establishing a Climate Change Fund, providing a carbon budget and national climate change action plan, and undertaking vulnerability and risk assessment. 2.4.2 Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and National Development Plan (2021-2025) The LT-LEDS leveraged on Nigeria Agenda 2050, the Nigeria LTV 2050 that set the framework for the development of the LT-LEDS and Nigeria's National Development Plan (2021-2025). The Agenda 2050 is Nigeria's long-term development plan, which has replaced the Vision 2020—the country's plan to be among the 20 most developed economies by 2020. The Agenda 2050 is aimed at repositioning Nigeria as one of the leading countries of the 21st Century. Nigeria's National Development Plan (2021-2025) is one of the medium-term plans. It is the successor plan to the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP, 2017-2020, whose implementation ended in December 2020. The plan is underpinned by a macroeconomics framework, which projects an average GDP growth of 5% over the plan period. 2.4.3 National Climate Change Policy (2021-2030) Nigeria's National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) of 2021 is a comprehensive policy that seeks to foster a low-carbon, climate-resilient and gender-responsive sustainable socio-economic development29. The policy sets out several targets and objectives that Nigeria must meet to fulfil its obligations under the Agreement. The policy focuses on several key areas: mitigation, adaptation, finance, research and development, institutional capacity-building, and global and regional cooperation. It includes plans to reduce emissions from energy production (including oil and gas), agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU), industry, transportation, waste, as well as to strengthen climate resilience through initiatives such as improved early warning systems, climate-smart agriculture, and the promotion of clean energy and renewable sources. The policy also includes plans to build capacity and strengthen institutional frameworks for effective climate change management, as well as putting in place innovative finance mechanisms to support climate action, such as the green bond market and the establishment of a carbon tax, with effective support from the private sector. 2.4.4 National Climate Change Programme for Nigeria (2021-2030) To foster a comprehensive and broad result-oriented national response to climate change, several critical action programmes were developed to guide the implementation of the National Climate Change Policy. These programmes will further consolidate climate change- related ongoing initiatives and processes to enhance the country’s adaptive capacity to respond to different levels of impacts of climate change and its opportunities. The programmes represent measures and actions that will be implemented in a programmatic manner to address most, if not all, of the challenges posed by climate change and climate vulnerability in the country. Within the strategic policy response framework of fostering a low-carbon, high-growth economic development path and building a climate-resilient society 29 Federal Ministry of Environment (2021): National Policy on Climate Change for Nigeria - 2021 - 2030. 41 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 to enable Nigeria to meet the challenge of climate change, these priority actions will be implemented for the next eight (8) years (ending 2030). Programme focus areas are targeted at (i) managing resilience in ecosystems, infrastructure and human communities through mitigation and adaptation strategies and initiatives; (ii) addressing current risks, vulnerabilities, policies, capacities, and gaps in knowledge; (iii) facilitating internal and external resources for climate financing; and (iv) engaging internal and external partners in seeking solutions. 2.4.5 The Nigerian Economic Sustainability Plan The Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan (NESP) was approved by the Federal Government in June 2020 and aims to chart a clear course out of the Covid-19 pandemic, by stimulating and diversifying the economy, retaining, and creating jobs and extending more protections to the poor. The aim is to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty over the next 10 years. key interventions centre around 10 core projects which include a Mass Agricultural Programme (MAP), an Extensive Public Works and Road Construction Programme, a Mass Housing Programme (MHP). Installation of Solar Home Systems, Strengthening the Social Safety Net, Support for Micro Small and Medium Enterprises, Survival Fund, Promotion of Domestic Gas Utilisation, and Digital Technology. The updated NDC is also aligned with the plan and some of the actions specifically targeted to this agenda. For example, the installation of Solar Home Systems targets 5 million households, serving about 25 million individual Nigerians who are currently not connected to the national grid. 2.4.6 The Nigeria 2050 Calculator (NECAL 2050) This is a tool to plot and explore Nigeria Pathways for Climate Change mitigation. It is an integrated energy, emission and energy-related land use calculator that supports different energy scenarios. 2.4.7 National Action Plan on Gender and Climate Change (NAPGCC) The goal of the Action Plan is to ensure that national climate change processes in Nigeria mainstream gender considerations to guarantee inclusivity of all demographics in the formulation and implementation of climate change initiatives, programs and policies.30 2.5 Vision Statement for Nigeria’s LT-LEDS Based on the review of the relevant policies provided in the preceding subsection of this

Section 2 and scenarios as well as the adaptation pathways, as against the LTV 2050, the LT- LEDS Vision has been adjusted to now read: “By 2060, Nigeria will be a country of net-zero emissions across all sectors of its development and climate-resilient with high-growth circular economy in a gender-responsive manner.” 30 National Action Plan On Gender And Climate Change For Nigeria 2020 42 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 43 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 3. National Emission Profiles and LT-LEDS Scenarios 3. National Emission Profile and LT- LEDS Scenarios This section presents Nigeria’s emission profiles and the scenarios. It also highlights the national GHG emissions under LT-LEDS scenarios or pathways for various sectors of national development (agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU); energy; oil and gas; industry; transport, waste, and some cross-cutting elements). The section concludes by examining the country’s economic and development aspirations and challenges to ensure Nigeria becomes a low-carbon, climate-resilient and economically prosperous country. 3.1 National Emissions Profile under the LT-LEDS BAU The total GHG emission from the Nigeria’s Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model31 analysis for 2018 which serves as the base year (same as the updated NDC), is 424.30 mtCO2e. The emissions were aggregated from all the sectors, namely Residential, Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU), Oil and Gas, Power, Industry, Transport, Services, and Waste and emissions from other sources (indirect N 2O emissions), as shown in Figure 3.1. The estimated emission in 2018 is higher than the value (347 mtCO2e) estimated in the NDC by about 22%, which could be attributed to the expansive and detailed consideration of emissions data in the AFOLU and transport sectors. The analysis indicates that the energy sector emissions (i.e., from oil and gas extraction, power, building and residential, and transport sub-sectors) account for 54.3% (229.4 mtCO2e) of the total emissions. However, at the sub-sector levels, AFOLU sector dictates the emission at 125.70 mtCO2e, which is equivalent to 29.6% of the total emissions in 2018. The high emissions from AFOLU are driven mainly by enteric fermentation, and land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). The share of AFOLU emission is followed by oil and gas extraction, transport, waste, residential, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), power, others, and services at 29.4%, 16.2%, 10.6%, 5.9%, 4.6%, 2.6%, 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively, as shown in Figure 3.2. In addition, the share of emissions by the energy, AFOLU, waste, IPPU and other sectors are at 54.3%, 29.6%, 10.6%, 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, as shown in Figure 3.3. It is shown that more than 50% of the emissions from the energy sector are from the oil and gas sub-sector. 31 C.G. Heaps, LEAP: the low emission analysis platform, [Software Version: 2020.1.37] Stockholm Environ. Institute (2021) https://leap.sei.org. 44 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 3.1: Sectoral Emissions Profile Note: it is interesting that the AFOLU emission are higher than oil & gas. This is not comparable with the findings in the NDC. A more detailed analysis of AFOLU emission have been carried out for this study especially the inclusion of livestock emissions. Figure 3. 2: Sectoral emissions contribution by percentage in 2018 45 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 3.3: Aggregated percentage emission contribution in 2018 3.2 Decarbonisation Scenarios for Nigeria’s LT-LEDS The scenario thinking provides the opportunity to explore different future trajectories and to analyse the consequences of these alternative futures at different time horizons in order to inform decisions. However, scenarios are not designed for the prediction of the future. Four scenarios were developed to support the LT-LEDS which were formulated under Nigeria’s Deep Decarbonisation Pathways (DDP-Nigeria) project, in collaboration with the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), funded by the French Development Agency (AFD) and elaborated on by critical stakeholders (government ministries, civil society organisations, and academia). The project provides a coupling of bottom-up and top-down modelling frameworks that allow analysis of the technical details of sectoral transitions as well as their cross-cutting socio-economic consequences. This allows the analysis to explore how to deeply decarbonize Nigeria by 2060 while encouraging aggressive improvement in macroeconomics indicators, e.g., employment, increased GDP, reduced poverty level and others. The Nigerian DDP project considers all forms of emissions, considering energy and non-energy induced emissions. The four LT-LEDS scenarios are depicted by Figure 3.4. The scenarios are implemented within Nigeria LEAP model architecture, which is anchored on bottom-up and top-down modelling structures constructed on the premise of extensive Nigeria context-sensitive data.32 However, there is a wide space to accommodate emerging policies, technologies, and economic variables with established Nigeria context-sensitive data to better model and understand the energy and macroeconomics implications of deep pathways for Nigeria. 32 As part of the general context development, Nigeria Energy Calculator 2050 was reviewed. 46 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 3. 4: LT-LEDS Scenarios In formulating the four LT-LEDS scenarios, consideration was given to Nigeria’s development goals of universal energy access, economic competitiveness, poverty eradication (through employment), food security, improved education quality, and other key development priorities. Also, Nigeria’s net-zero commitment by 2060, through aggressively utilising renewable energy and adopting energy efficiency and management measures across all sectors along with agro-waste and forest management measures (e. g. reforestation and afforestation) was considered. Therefore, the scenario analysis involved elaborating scenario pathways, including required technologies, fuel switching, renewable and non-renewable energy penetration, deforestation, and forest degradation (REDD+) and economic implications. The storylines supporting the scenarios are presented as follows. (i) Business As Usual (BAU): This scenario imagines a significant increase in Nigeria's emissions from all sectors due to increasing socioeconomic development and population without substantial mitigation efforts. The key BAU assumptions are presented in Table 3.1. Table 3. 1: Key BAU assumptions Key Assumption Parameter Study Base 2018 Year Gases CO2 , CH4, N2O, CO, NMVOC, NOX, PM10, PM2.5, BC, OC, SO2, NH3 Covered Base Year 195.88 million People Population Household National = 6.8 Urban = 6.3 Rural = 7.2 Size Annual Population 2030 = 2.5% 2040 = 2.3% 2050 = 2.0% 2060 = 1.7% Growth rate 47 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 3. 1: Key BAU assumptions Key Assumption Parameter Base Year 649.13 billion US$ GDP Sectoral Agriculture = 21.4% Services = 52.6% Industry = 26.0% Value Added 2024 2022 = 2020= -1.79% 2021= 3.64% 2023 = 5.8% = 6.2% Annual GDP Stats & 5.5% Growth Rate SSP: 2060 2040 = 2025 = 5.2% 2030 = 5.0% 2050 = 4.5% = 4.7% 5.0% Base Year Urbanisation 43.5% Rate Electrification National = 56.5% Urban = 83.9% Rural = 25.5% Rate Grid generation (7,228 Large Hydro Plants = 1383 Gas Turbines = 5,845 MW): MW, MW Rooftop Solar PV Existing Standalone Solar PV (20 to (200W to 20 KW) = 10 Generation 200W) = 1 MW Off-grid generation MW Plants (25,056 MW): Fossil fuel-based self- Small Hydro = 45 MW generation = 25,000 MW Cooking: Lighting: Electricity = 1.3% Wood = 65.7% Household LPG X = 65.7% Grid electricity = 44.8% Cooking and Charcoal = 5.9% Off-grid electricity = 31.2% Lighting Kerosene = 15.6% Kerosene = 16.6% Shares Vegetable waste = 0.1% Wood = 6.6% Animal waste = 0.1% Natural gas = 0.2% Coal = 0.5% No cooking = 0.5% Energy intensities Stock of appliances (No. Electricity use (GWh): (kWh/Unit): Units in millions): Household AC = 448.67 Appliances Motors = 1.8 Motors = 5,145 Fans = 16.32 Fridges/freezer = 16.4 Fridges/freezers = 557.4 Motors = 2858.3 s = 15.7 TVs = 190.9 Fridges/freezers = 34 TVs TVs = 12.16 48 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 3. 1: Key BAU assumptions Key Assumption Parameter Rail (volumes) Road (Number and volumes) 1,664.9 million Number of vehicles = 12.8 million Passenger pkm 186.4 Freight million tkm Transport Car 45.9% 68 billion pkm Domestic Air (volumes) Motorcycle 8.9% 5.5 billion pkm 9,076.9 million Bus 16.2% 36 billion pkm Passenger pkm LDV 11.5% 29 billion tkm Freight 19.8 million HDV 9% 17 billion tkm tkm Household and transport Household and Transport demand has been projected based GDP demand Sectoral Gross Value Agriculture, services, and industry projected based on GDP growth rate Added (GVA) projections Non-Energy Sub-sector sector Fugitive Emissions • Fugitive emissions from solid fuels from the • Fugitive emissions from oil and gas Energy Sector • Cement production • Fire extinguishers • Lime production • Aerosols Industrial • Glass production • Solvents Processes and • Other processes • Semiconductor and Product Use • Production of chemicals electronic manufacturing (grows with • Production of metals • Electrical equipment GDP growth • Non-Energy Products from fuels and rate) • Other gas use solvent • Other product manufacturer • Refrigeration and air conditioning and use • Foam blowing Agriculture, Forestry and • Enteric fermentation • Other direct soil emissions Other Land • Manure management • Indirect N2O emissions from Use (grows • Manure in pasture range and paddock managed soils with • Land Use and Land Use Change and • Indirect N2O emissions from population Forestry manure management and GDP • Direct N20 emissions from managed soils • Rice cultivation and other growth rate) 49 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 3. 1: Key BAU assumptions Key Assumption Parameter Waste (grows • Waste incineration & open with the • Solid waste disposal burning population • Biological treatment of solid waste • Wastewater handling growth rate) • Indirect N2 O emissions from atmospheric deposition of nitrogen in NO x and N Other • Other (ii) Current Policy Scenario (CPS): This scenario imagines an economy that is guided by the ambition of the Energy Transition Plan (Net-Zero Emission by 2060) and the Nationally Determined Contribution. Thus, over 90% of power generation is attributed to renewable energy, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage that accounts for 50% of cement production, electric vehicles replace more than 85% of fossil fuel-powered cars and buses 85% replacement of inefficient household technologies by 2050, and end of gas flaring by 2030. In addition, the scenario assumes that backup fossil fuel generators will be eliminated by 2050. Appendix 2 for the key policy assumptions supporting this scenario. (iii) Gas Economy Scenario (GES): This scenario imagines Nigeria's aggressive exploitation and utilisation of gas resources. This scenario assumes that by 2060, 58% of power generation will be from natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In the residential sector, 100% of inefficient lighting, refrigeration and air conditioning technologies will be replaced by 2060, and clean cooking (LPG, natural gas, and electricity) will account for 90% of the share of cooking energy by 2060 and improved cook stove (biomass cook stove) will account for the remaining 10%. Natural gas with CCS will account for 57% of the energy-intensive industry and gas flaring will be ended by 2030. A modal shift to public modes of transportation with buses and three-wheeler vehicles accounting for 50% and 20%, respectively, by 2060, and cars and taxis accounting for the remaining 30%. Furthermore, an aggressive reforestation rate, at 5% annually, is assumed to support nature-based carbon sinks, and forestry management practices are in line with the global mechanism of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Also, emissions from waste will decrease by 2%, annually (Appendix 3) for the key policy assumptions supporting this scenario. (iv) Renewable Energy Scenario (RES): This scenario envisages ambitious Nigeria's emission reduction to net-zero by 2060. The scenario assumes about 98% zero-emission energy penetration in the power sector comprising of renewable energy and nuclear power to align with the Nigerian Nuclear Power Programme33. Clean cooking accounts for 95% of cooking energy, and efficient technologies will replace inefficient household technologies by 2060. Electricity will account for most energy use in the service, transport, and industrial sectors. By 2060, the shift to buses and 33 Ibitoye, F. (2014) An Overview of Nigeria’s Nuclear Energy Programme in the INPRO Methodology area of Infrastructure, https://nucleus.iaea.org/sites/INPRO/df8/Section%205/Group%203/Breakout_Infrastructure_17_Ibitoye.pdf 50 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 three-wheelers will be 50 and 20%, respectively. Enteric fermentation will be reduced by 5, 8, and 10%, by 2030, 2050, and 2060 respectively. In addition, a moderate reforestation rate, at 2.3% annually, is assumed to support nature-based carbon sinks, and forestry management practices are in line with the global mechanism of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Furthermore, emissions from waste will decrease by 5, 10, 15, and 20%, by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 respectively, due to improved waste management and waste-to-energy practice. (Appendix 3). 3.3 Scenarios Construction As previously noted, the Nigeria LEAP was used to quantitatively chart a road map for Nigeria’s journey. The LEAP model is the tool of choice for energy calculations. The Nigeria LEAP (LEAP-NGA) model structure was designed to reflect the sector-tailored integrated scenarios. As a result, the LEAP-NGA model, which is anchored on the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) bottom-up model architecture, can provide quantitative information about the energy mix and emissions of the country under the various LT-LEDS scenarios. LEAP-NGA structure was developed by integrating all the country's sectors: energy, Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU), industry, services, and waste. The energy sector comprises residential and building, power, transport, and oil and gas sub-sectors. The Nigeria LEAP model relies on the key policy assumptions supporting each of the four LT-LEDS scenarios and Nigeria's context-sensitive data presented in (Appendix 3) showing the data sources. The Nigeria LEAP model is used to track energy mix, consumption pattern, production, resource extraction and emissions under featured scenarios. The Nigeria LEAP structure was extended to incorporate endogenous Nigeria's context- sensitive macroeconomics data through the KLEM (Capital, Labour, Energy, Materials and Services) macroeconomics model (KLEM-NGA), which is a top-down modelling architecture (Figure 3.5). 51 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 3. 5: Dynamic Calibration of LEAP-NGA and KLEM-NGA Models The KLEM is designed to compute macroeconomics trajectories under the constraint of exogenous energy flows and prices. The focus of the KLEM is on overall macroeconomics impacts. The model aggregates the economy into two sectors only – energy and non-energy. It was assumed that further sectoral specificities in the non-energy sector do not significantly influence the simulation results. This assumption allows a two-sector KLEM-NGA model, with one sector representing energy branches and the other sector the rest of the economy. The energy branches are derived exogenously by soft-linking the LEAP-NGA and KLEM-NGA models. The exchange concerns the variables of the energy system (costs/prices and physical flows), calculated by LEAP, and the growth of the real gross domestic product (GDP) calculated by KLEM, the main driver of energy consumption growth in LEAP. The coupled implementation of both models (Nigeria LEAP-Nigeria KLEM) allows the production of outlooks that offer a consistent description of the Nigerian energy system and the aggregate economic activity it is servicing. It is important to note that, the result obtained using these models were computed based on the 100-Year Global Warming Potential (GWP), which is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. 3.4 Emissions from the Scenarios The analysis of the scenarios on the Nigeria LEAP model yields important aggregated national emissions profiles for the scenarios, as shown in Figure 3.6. In 2030, the emissions of the BAU, CPS, GES and RES stand at 513.7, 415.98, 326.8 and 242.0 mtCO 2e, respectively. The results for 2030 show that the CPS, GES, and RES can reduce emissions by 1.96%, 22.99% and 42.96%, respectively, compared to 2018, the base year, with emissions of 424.30 mtCO2e. Again, the 52 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 LT-LEDS BAU is higher than the NDC BAU’s value (452.7 mtCO2e) by about 13% in 2030. The difference between the LT-LEDS BAU and NDC BAU could be attributed to the more granular analysis of activities in the AFOLU and the transport sectors in the LT-LEDS modelling approach. The emission from the energy sector (265 mtCO2e) in 2030 is higher than the updated NDC’s value (252 mtCO2e) and ETP’s value (216 mtCO2e) by about 5% and 18%, respectively. Figure 3. 6: Emission profile for all the scenarios Figure 3.7 shows the evolution of emissions for the scenarios. The results indicate that the CPS, GES, and RES, respectively, could reduce the base year emissions by 24.5%, 38.3% and 61.5% in 2050, whereas the reduction would be by 36.7%, 78.3% and 96.8% in 2060. It is worth noting that only the RES passed the vision of Nigeria’s LTV-2050 of cutting emissions by 50% by 2050. The CPS has not performed close to net-zero by 2060 because the ETP’s total emission amount does not account for over 60% of emissions from AFOLU. The implication is that the GES and RES have better potential than ETP and CPS to support the LT-LEDS of Nigeria by 2060; however, only the RES points in the direction of net-zero emission. 53 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 3.7: Evolution of emissions by scenarios Figure 3.8 shows the emission contribution by sectors (energy, AFOLU, IPPU, waste and others) to each scenario; where emissions from oil and gas extraction, building and residential, transport and power aggregate to the energy sector’s emissions. In 2030, under the BAU case, the shares of the energy, AFOLU, IPPU, waste and others, are respectively, 50.4%, 32.8%, 4.3%, 11.6% and 0.9%; under the CPS case, the shares of energy, AFOLU, IPPU, waste and others, respectively, are 52.3%, 34.4%, 3.6%, 8.6% and 1.0%; under the GES case, the shares of energy, AFOLU, IPPU, waste and others, respectively, are 73.4%, 10.9%, 3.4%, 11.0% and 1.3%; and under the RES case, the shares of energy, AFOLU, IPPU, waste and others, respectively, are 66.3%, 18.8%, 4.1%, 9.7%, and 1.1%. However, in 2050 and 2060, AFOLU will serve as a carbon sink for GES and RES, which is attributed to aggressive afforestation, forest management and forest waste-to-energy. 54 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 3. 8: Sectoral emissions contribution to the scenarios Figure 3.9 presents the energy mix across all four scenarios – the energy is classified into electricity (grid and off-grid), fossil (gas), fossil (others – kerosene, gasoline, diesel, and coal), wood and charcoal and ethanol. For the BAU (Figure 3.9a), firewood and charcoal (at 2948 Petajoule (PJ)) will dominate the energy space in 2030, whereas fossil fuel (others), with insignificant contribution from coal at 0.82 PJ, will dominate the energy space beyond 2030. Figure 3.9b, the CPS, indicates that fossil (others) will dominate the energy space between 2030 (1266PJ) and 2040 (1223 PJ), with electricity controlling the energy space beyond 2040. Furthermore, for the GES, fossil (others) at 1421 PJ will dictate the energy space in 2030, while fossil (gas) will dominate the energy space beyond 2040 (Figure 3.9c). For the RES, firewood, and charcoal (at 1528 PJ) will dominate the energy space in 2030, while electricity will dominate beyond 2050 (see Figure 3.9d). The GES energy scenario shows higher total energy consumption than the CPS and the RES. This is attributed to lower efficiency of energy conversion of the GES. 55 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 a. Business As Usual (BAU) b. Current Policy Scenario c. Gas Economy Scenario (GES) 56 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 d. Renewable Energy Scenario (RES) Figure 3. 9: Energy Share Across the Scenarios (a-d) 57 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 54 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 4.0 Sectoral Emissions and Strategic Policy Measures Under Mitigation 4. Sectoral Emissions and Strategic Policy Measures under Mitigation 4.1 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector 4.1.1. Emissions from the AFOLU Sector The agricultural sector's contributions to the GDP and sectoral employment quota to the entire labour force in the country in 2016 were 21.2% and 39.5%, respectively (World Bank, 2018). More than 80% of the farmers in Nigeria are smallholders, i.e., holding less than 1 Ha, 34. Over 38 million Nigerians (about 20% of the population) are directly engaged in agriculture, making it the highest employer of labour. However, it is usually reported that about 70% of the labour force is engaged in one form of agricultural activity or another. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land use (AFOLU) sector is Nigeria's second highest producer of greenhouse gas emissions, after the energy sector . The decarbonisation of the AFOLU sector is very challenging due to “difficulties in emission estimation, the disperse nature of AFOLU emissions, and the complex links between AFOLU activities and poverty reduction.”35 In the BAU, the AFOLU will contribute 32.8% of the emissions in 2030, while in the CPS, GES and RES, the contribution of the AFOLU is 34.4%, 10.9% and 18.8%, respectively. 34 Mgbenka and Mbah, 2016, A review of smallholder farming in Nigeria: need for transforma-tion. Int J Agric Ext Rural Dev Stud 3(2):43-54. 35 Anyanwu, C. N., Ojike, O., Emodi, N. V., Ekwe, E. B., Okereke, C., Diemuodeke, E. O., ... & Nnamani, U. A. (2023). Deep decar bonization options for the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector in Africa: a systematic literature review. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 195(5), 565. 57 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 The result shows that AFOLU emissions contribution in RES is higher than the GES because of the better consideration of afforestation and reforestation measures in GES. The emission share continues to increase for the BAU until 2060, when there is a marginal decrease in the emissions, as shown in Figure 4.1, which could be attributed to the deforestation rate. According to the U.N. FAO, between 1990 and 2010, Nigeria lost an average of 409,650 ha or 2.38% per year of forested land. Thus, Nigeria lost 47.5% of its forest cover over these two decades (about 8,193,000 ha). If nothing is done, Nigeria would have lost another 25% of its 2020 forest cover by 2060. Hence, the implication is that at least 2.3% reforestation rate per annum would be required to reverse the deforestation. Furthermore, Nigeria’s national forest policy aims to increase national forest cover from the current 6% to 25% (the level it was in 2000) by 203036. The reforestation will have to outpace deforestation to achieve this in the near to medium term. Therefore, it is impossible to imagine a transition to net-zero carbon economy in Nigeria without the deep of the AFOLU sector. Going forward, the GES adopted a reforestation rate of 5% to accommodate the reversal of the forest loss and natural carbon sink for the expected emissions from the diverse uses of gas in the economy – power generation, transport, cooking, and industry. The AFOLU emissions in the CPS show a remarkable decrease compared to the BAU. On average, the AFOLU emissions in the CPS indicate about a 46% reduction between 2050 and 2060 compared to the AFOLU emissions from the BAU in the same time horizon. However, the AFOLU sector serves as a carbon sink in the GES and RES between 2040 and 2060 and 2050 and 2060, respectively, as shown in Figure 4.1. Figure 4.1: Emissions from AFOLU under the scenarios Some of the specific agricultural activities that lead to GHG emissions are enteric fermentation in domestic livestock rearing, land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), livestock manure management, rice cultivation, agricultural soil management, and field 36 National Forest Policy, 2020 – Federal Ministry of Environment. 58 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 burning of agricultural residues, liming, urea fertilisation and on-farm energy use. However, enteric fermentation and LULUCF account for over 65% of AFOLU BAU's emissions between 2020 and 2050, as demonstrated in Figure 4.2. These observations call for the combination of strategies (e.g., ranching of animals to reduce enteric fermentation, reforestation as a mitigation strategy alongside climate-smart agriculture practices) to reduce emissions from the AFOLU sector. Increasing resilience to climate change and effectively reducing GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector will be feasible within LTV-2050’s vision for AFOLU, which is elaborated in the adaptation section. Figure 4.2: AFOLU activities contributing to emissions in BAU 4.1.2 Mitigation Measures for the AFOLU Sector The AFOLU sector includes crop production, animal production, fisheries, and forestry sub- sectors. The mitigation strategies by 2060 will focus on the following five key thematic areas of i. Adoption and implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices. Emphasis will be: • Educating a minimum of five (5) million farmers on climate-smart agricultural practices, including but not limited to efficient irrigation systems, agricultural biotechnology on ethanol production, use of improved seedlings, improved use of manure and responsible use of fertiliser, improved methods of crop cultivation, etc. • Developing/implementing national guidelines on different aspects of agricultural practices such as climate smart irrigation schemes, etc. • Adopting efficient food storage and processing methods to reduce food loss in the supply chain. ii. Promotion of nationwide animal ranching practice for improved enteric fermentation management by: • Ensuring effective implementation of the National Diary Policy, National Livestock Transformation Plan, etc. • Undertaking massive education of herders and other livestock keepers. 59 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 • Providing adequate land for ranching activities • Adopting sustainable livestock management • Putting regulations in place to discourage open grazing. • Mainstreaming climate adaptation into dry land management plans and strategy. iii. Promotion of afforestation and reforestation activities to increase Nigeria’s forest cover to 25% by 2060 will involve: • Discouraging deforestation. • Establishing forest reserves • Promoting community forestry. • Planting at least 25 million trees annually using indigenous and fast-growing tree species. iv. Adoption of nature-based solutions for sustainable ecosystem management. This will be emphasised by: • Conserving mangrove forest • Effecting land management practices • Planting of covered crops in plantation. • Restoring degraded lands. v. Reduced forest and carbon losses from Agriculture will involve: • Developing guidelines for sustainable agricultural practices • Undertaking capacity building to educate farmers on sustainable agricultural practices. • Enforcing laws and regulations to stop bush burning, charcoal production and unsustainable mineral exploitation. • Supporting the reduction of food, fibre, and forest products with high GHG emissions in the production chain. This includes (i) switching from consuming products with higher GHG emissions in the process chain to products with lower GHG emissions and (ii) making land • available for other GHG reduction activities. (iii) Ensuring behavioural change for adapting to new technologies and practices that are climate smart in AFOLU, e.g., the use of energy- efficient cooking stoves in rural and semi-urban Nigeria. Changes in human diets towards fewer animal products and increased carbon stocks in long-lived wood products will contribute to the demand-side mitigation options in the AFOLU sector for low-carbon societies in Nigeria. Increasing resilience to climate change and effectively reducing GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector will be feasible within LTV-2050’s vision for AFOLU, which has been elaborated in the adaptation section 60 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 4.2 Power Sector 4.2.1 Emissions from Power Sector The power sector is very critical to the socioeconomic development of Nigeria. Presently, the installed power capacity in Nigeria is about 14GW, with the maximum available capacity fluctuating around 5 GW37. The electricity generation of 36 TWh38 can only meet up to one- third of the country's electricity needs. Also, the record shows that only 55% of Nigerian households are connected to the national grid39 but Nigeria’s NDC has the vision to electrify all homes in Nigeria by 2030. Nigeria’s electricity installed capacity is mainly from fossil fuel (over 80% of total capacity), and the power sector is directly responsible for 17 mtCO 2e emissions in the country.40 This means that to meet the “energy for all” target and to electrify other aspects of the economy, the Nigerian power sector must be substantially and rapidly decarbonised. Interestingly, the issue of power decarbonisation does not imply the provision of clean energy only, but it may also suggest an increase in electricity (when net-zero emission is in view) needs since electrification of other sectors is seen as a veritable instrument to deeply decarbonise the entire economy. Thus, there will only be meaningful sector-wide decarbonisation in Nigeria if the power sector is given significant attention. Since Nigeria has abundant gas and renewable energy reserves, is possible from the power sector through a mix of policies and strategies ranging from a gas-focused economy with carbon capture to a fully renewable economy. The choice of pathways will depend on a combination of social, economic, and political calculations ideally with a balance between demand and supply measures41. 37 The low available capacity (5GW) relative to total installed capacity (14GW) is due to lack of gas supply, non -functional power plant and fluctuations in water level of hydro power plants. 38 Total electricity generation, obtained by multiplying the available capacity by total hours of operation in a year. 39 World Bank, Energy Progress Report. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=NG 40 IRENA (2022) ‘Energy profile’, International Renewable Energy Agency, www.irena.org 41 Diemuodeke, O., & Okereke, C. (2020). Energy Scenarios for Ambitious and Effective Nigerian’s Nationally Determined Contributions. J Energy Technol Policy. 61 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 4.3 shows the GHG emissions of power generation for the four scenarios. The GHG emissions of the BAU scenario will grow steadily from 15 to 118 mtCO 2e by 2060. The emissions of the CPS scenario will peak at 18 mtCO2e in 2040 and drop to 0.4 mtCO2e by 2060. A similar trend is observable in the GES, peaking at 14 mtCO2e in 2050 and dropping to 0.1 mtCO2e in 2060. The low emissions in these scenarios are associated with the penetration of renewable energy and the deployment of carbon capture technologies, respectively. The emissions of the renewable energy scenario will peak at 23 mtCO2e in 2050 and drop to about 7 mtCO2e by 2060. Although the RES deploys renewable energy technology, the emissions from biomass are the reason for 7 mtCO2e in 2060. Figure 4.3: GHG emissions of power generation Figure 4.4 shows the emission factor of the baseline and LT-LEDS scenarios. The BAU shows an increase in the power sector emission factor from 429 gCO2e per kWh of electricity generation in 2020 to 461 gCO2e per kWh in 2060. However, the figure shows reductions in emission factors of the mitigation scenarios. The emission factor of the CPS will peak at 176 gCO2e per kWh in 2030 and decrease to 1 gCO2e per kWh in 2060. The emission factor of the RES will gradually decrease from 210 gCO2e per kWh in 2020 to 10 gCO2e per kWh in 2060. For the GES, the emission factor decreases from 191 gCO2e per kWh in 2020 to 0.3 gCO2e per kWh in 2060. By 2060, the emission factors of the mitigation scenarios will fall to 1, 0.3 and 10 gCO2e per kWh, respectively, for GES, CPS and RES, as compared with 461 gCO2e per kWh of the BAU. It is observed that the emission factor from RES will be the highest among the three decarbonisation scenarios by 2060, even though it is renewable energy dominated. However, the RES emission factor will be the lowest on an aggregated national emission accounting due to the absorption of biomass emission by regenerating biomass to drive the afforestation and reforestation considered in the AFOLU sector. The observation is attributed to emissions from the use of biomass in electricity generation plants. The huge reduction seen in the emissions of these scenarios, when compared to the baseline scenario emissions, is due to carbon capture technologies and the deployment of renewable energy and nuclear power technologies. 62 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 4.4: Emission factor of power generation Figure 4.5 shows the electricity generation for all the scenarios for 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060. In the BAU, electricity generation will increase 9 folds from 28 TWh in 2018 to 257 TWh (grid: 213 TWh; off grid: 44 TWh) in 2060. For CPS scenario, electricity generation will increase by 23 folds from 28 TWh in 2018 to 637 TWh (grid: 622 TWh; off grid: 15 TWh) by 2060. For GES, electricity will increase by 17 folds from 28 TWh in 2018 to 484 TWh (grid: 468 TWh; off grid: 16 TWh) by 2060. For RES, electricity generation will increase by 27 folds from 28 TWh in 2018 to 761 TWh (grid: 647 TWh; off grid: 114 TWh) by 2060. The electricity generation is highest in the RES because more electricity will be demanded to meet the energy needs of the different sectors of the economy in the RES than in other scenarios. The energy demand in the RES will be dominated by electricity because the transport, residential (e.g., cooking), industry sectors will be driven by electrification. This is possible because renewable energy is better converted to electricity than being used as primary fuels in other sectors of the economy. 63 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 4.5: Electricity generation (Grid and off-grid) Figure 4.6 shows the electricity generation mix. The BAU shows that most of the electricity generation is from fossil sources (gas power plants and diesel generators), contributing 84% of the generation by 2060. For the CPS scenario, most of the electricity generation by 2060 will be from solar and hydro (large and small hydro) at 47% and 39%, respectively. For GES, most of the electricity generation will be from fossil fuel (gas power plant with carbon capture), solar, nuclear, and hydro at 29%, 27%, 23%, and 15%, respectively. For RES, electricity generation is mainly from solar, hydro, biomass and nuclear at 37%, 27%, 19% and 9%, respectively. The 9% of power generation from nuclear power is well aligned with the Nigerian Nuclear Power Programme. It is expected that the implementation of the programme will evolve along safety and risk measures and capacity development. Figure 4.6: Electricity generation mix Figure 4.7 shows the power generation capacities of the four scenarios. For the BAU scenario, the power generation capacity will increase 4-fold from the 2018 value to 140GW by 2060, while CPS, GES and RES will increase by 18, 8 and 11 folds by 2060. Although the RES requires 64 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 more electricity generation than the CPS, the power generation capacity of the RES is lower than that of the CPS because of the high energy density and conversion efficiency that will be deployed in the RES mix. Figures 4.7a and 4.7b show the power capacity by a mix of technologies in the grid and off-grid, respectively. Figure 4.7: Power generation capacity 450000 400000 350000 Grid Power, MW 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 Renewable Energy Baseline Current Policy Scenario Gas Economy Scenario Scenario NG with CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,000 15,00 20,00 130,0 0 0 0 0 Gas 8220 14640 23400 34980 13,00 8,666 4,333 0 15,70 25,00 20,00 15,00 3000 2000 1000 0 Large Hydro 2010 4097 6573 9640 4980 14630 49260 109640 4300 8000 16000 24000 10410 22760 40100 76640 Coal 520 1590 3050 4980 5000 3333 1667 0 500 1000 500 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass 50 50 50 50 1100 3067 5033 7000 50 367 683 1000 1000 7333 13667 20000 Biogas from waste 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 100 2000 3500 5000 1000 5000 10000 15000 Wind 100 100 100 100 4296 12148 20000 20000 100 300 500 1000 1000 10500 17750 25000 Solar PV Ut ility 620 1690 3030 4010 33100 91700 174980235360 500 15333 30167 45000 9048 19983 33657 68958 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 2000 5000 8000 8000 10 25 50 15000 2335 4185 8775 33155 CSP 0 0 0 0 1000 3000 5000 5000 10 340 670 1000 100 1000 5000 15000 Figure 4.7a: Grid power generation capacity by technology 65 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 120000 100000 Offgrid Power, MW 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 Renewable Energy Baseline Current Policy Scenario Gas Economy Scenario Scenario Generators 35644 47903 64377 86517 5000 2500 0 0 20000 15000 10000 0 20000 15000 10000 2100 Small hydro 53 53 53 53 500 1500 2500 3500 500 1500 2500 3500 300 1367 2433 5600 Rooftop PV 80 80 80 80 1393 5697 10000 10000 50 750 2500 5000 6890 13760 20630 29700 Standalone PV 10 10 10 10 1393 5697 10000 10000 25 500 1000 2000 120 9247 18373 29700 Hybrid solar 7 7 7 7 5314 7657 10000 10000 50 300 1000 2500 100 500 3000 30150 Figure 4.7b: Off-grid power generation capacity by technology Figure 4.8 shows the amount of power to be installed yearly for the various technologies/fuels from 2023 to meet the power requirements of the four scenarios. The BAU shows that 1608MW of backup generators will be needed yearly. High solar installation is required for the CPS and the RES at 6700MW and 4300MW, respectively. While the GES requires 3625MW of gas power plants annually. Other power capacities are also shown in the figure. Figure 4.8: Annual power installation by scenarios From the analysis of the power sector, the decarbonisation scenarios show that (i) the “energy for all” target can be achieved by 2030, (ii) the CPS and GES have more ambitions to reduce emissions in the power sector than other scenarios by 2060; however, on aggregated national emissions accounting the RES has the highest potential due to the use of the emission for biomass regeneration through the afforestation and reforestation measures in the AFOLU sector and(iii) the GES will require significant investment in the grid electricity generation because of the large scale installation of gas power plants with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) since gas power plants with CCS technology are expensive (2635 USD/kW 66 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 as the capital expenditure, excluding operational expenditure) 42 as against gas power plants without CCS (1500 USD/kW capital expenditure) 43. 4.2.2 Mitigation Measures for Power Sector Nigeria’s Net-Zero plan for the energy sector will be driven by a shift towards further reliance on Hydro, Biomass, Wind, Solar PV and Nuclear as the country starts to exploit its large renewable energy potential for a successful energy transformation. The current electricity access rate is approximately 55% of the population, of which 86% are based in urban areas and 34% are in rural areas. The modelling indicates that about 60% and 80% of Nigeria’s electricity demand in 2050 can be met with renewable energy sources under the gas economy and renewable energy scenarios, respectively, which will progress to 92% in 2060 under the renewable energy scenario. The mitigation strategies by 2060 will focus on the following four key thematic areas:44 i. Increased renewable energy mix to a minimum of 60%. This will include sourcing electricity from the following means: • Generating up to 15,000MW from Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and up to 45,000 MW from Solar PV utility by 2060. • Generating a minimum of 20,000 MW from biomass sources by 2060. • Generating energy from waste of up to 15,000MW by 2060. • Expanding the country’s hydro-power, potential to generate up to 24,000MW from large and small hydro-power, systems by 2060. • Generating up to 25,000 MW from wind by 2060. • Generating up to 20,000 MW from Nuclear sources by 2060. • Encouraging massive private sector investment in the local production of solar equipment and other equipment for power generation from biomass, wind, and nuclear technology. • Exploring hydrogen and other geothermal energy sources as part of the renewable energy alternatives through the development of a good road map for mainstreaming these into the energy mix for the country ii. Introducing and/or accelerating the uptake of carbon capture storage technologies with emphasis on the following: • Deploying significantly improved gas-fired combined cycle thermal power plants with carbon capture technology to at least 58% of the thermal power generation technologies by 2060. • Accelerating the standardisation of CCS to improve its cost, scheduling, and safety, enabling its widespread implementation using best global practices. 42 The cost data for CCGT with carbon capture were derived from AEO (2020) cost data - https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost/pdf/capital_cost_AEO2020.pdf 43 The cost data were sourced from a report that reflects true cost of electricity generation in Nigeria - https://ng.boell.org/sites/default/files/true_cost_of_power_technical_report_final.pdf 44 Although the RES indicate that Nigeria should target 97% in its renewable energy mix, the stakeholders are of the view that no more than 60% can be achieved, of which about 60% from Solar, 5% from wind, 10% from biomass, 20% from hydropower and 5% from nuclear. 67 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 iii. Promotion of smart grid technology to reduce transmission and distribution losses by at least 5% by 2060: This will entail: • Adopting a decentralised approach for all the renewable energy mix generation and distribution in the rural areas. • Supporting micro-financing of solar equipment to SMEs and households • Promoting research and development in renewable energy use and production changing single cycles to multi or combine cycle power plants in Power generation iv. Accelerate adoption of energy efficiency and energy management measures across all sectors: Emphasis will be to: • Developing a national programme to implement the adopted Energy Management System (EnMS) for all sectors. • Enforcing energy efficiency standards, building codes, appliance efficiency standards and labelling. • Providing an incentive for manufacturers to develop a standardised energy-efficient product. Providing wavers/incentives by Government for importation of renewable energy components The Government will support necessary capacity-building initiatives that will enhance national capacity to accelerate the development of solar home systems locally, encourage the establishment of local factories for briquette production to substitute charcoal and firewood across the states and support rapid production of locally manufactured improved biomass and gasifier cookstoves. Existing energy policies to support the rapid development of medium to high manpower to drive the entire value chains of the renewable energy conversion technology space and household solar panels will be reinforced. In implementation, the Government will also align the measures mentioned above with relevant national policies, plans and extant laws such as: i. Renewable Energy Roadmap Nigeria-2023 ii. National Energy Masterplan 2022 iii. National Energy Policy 2022 iv. National Renewable Energy Action Plan 2015-2030. v. 2015 National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP). vi. 2017 National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP). vii. 2021 Nigerian Climate Change Law. viii. 2022 Energy Transition Plan (ETP). In addition, the country will fully implement the National Generator Emission Control Programme (NGECP). 68 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 4.3 Buildings and Residential 4.3.1 Emissions from Building and Residential Sector Nigeria’s buildings and residential sector is a substantial consumer of the total delivered primary and final energy of the economy, with an energy consumption of 2423 PJ in 2020, according to the LT-LEDS BAU analysis (Figure 4.9). The energy consumption in the BAU will grow steadily with the population growth exacerbated by (i) cooking involving inefficient use of biomass in the traditional cookstove and the use of fossil-based cookstoves (LPG and kerosene) and (ii) use of inefficient appliances45. In addition, it has been established that energy consumption in the buildings and residential sector is adversely affected by poor architectural design and inefficient appliances.46 However, the emissions from these sources of energy consumption were accounted for at the point of generation in the power sector. The CPS has the lowest energy consumption across the horizon (Figure 4.9), which is attributed to the massive electrification of building and residential services, cooking, for example. In 2060, the RES will record the highest emission (at 801 PJ) among the three decarbonisation scenarios because of a mix of electricity and improved biomass cookstoves. However, considering the use of emission to support the regeneration of biomass (the afforestation and reforestation measures) in the AFOLU sector, the RES emissions become comparable with the CPS emissions. A conscientious effort to see a shift from the traditional biomass use for cooking, deployment of more energy-efficient electrical appliances and a higher focus on electricity and exploitation of other efficient cooking, lighting and space cooling systems will contribute to the realistic decrease in energy intensity in the residential sector as energy demand sources get increasingly decarbonised in all the scenarios. 45 Omene Tietie, D.E, Diemuodeke, E.O., Owebo, K., Okereke, C. et al. (2021) Long-termenergy demand-side modelling of Nigerian household sector - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2021.100065 46 Ochedi et al. (2022) A framework approach to the design of energy-efficient residential buildings in Nigeria - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbenv.2021.07.001 69 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 3,131 3,170 3,500 2,845 Energy Demand, (Million GigaJoules) 3,000 2,748 2,423 2,500 1,873 1,859 1,715 1,569 1,589 1,489 1,498 1,498 1,470 2,000 1,500 801 1,000 561 571 540 577 459 500 - Baseline Current Policy Scenario Gas Economy Scenario Renewable Energy Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Figure 4.9: Building and residential sector energy demand under various scenarios The emission from the building and residential sector is presented in Figure 4.10 which indicates that the emissions from the BAU grows moderately across the years at 26.0, 30.8, 33.8, 34.4 and 30.4 mtCO 2e in 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060, respectively. However, emissions from CPS, GES and RES will reduce by 84%, 71% and 79%, respectively, in 2060 compared with the base year (2018) emissions. The high emission reduction in CPS is attributed to a high level of electrification (71%), and moderate use of gas (8%) in the building and residential sector compared to 46% and 11% and 44% and 1% electricity and gas utilisation for GES and CPS, respectively. The emissions were assessed with respect to building operations, referred to as operational emissions; whilst other forms of emission obtainable from this sector which are produced during the mining, processing, manufacturing, transporting, and installation of building materials are referred to as embodied emissions are accounted for in the industrial sector. The major drivers of energy demand and emissions in the residential sector are population growth, household income and urbanisation recognisable in (i.) an increase in population causing demand for new residential floor spaces; (ii.) more construction of a new building to bridge the current housing deficit in the country; (iii.) high cost of living pushing low-income earners to use ineffective appliances and fuels; (iv) more demand for residential floor spaces by high-income earners; (v) demolition and upgrade of old buildings to modern buildings in the urban areas; (vi) changes in construction practices (vii) increase in end-use demand and energy intensity; among others. Activities in the residential sector from which GHGs result are cooking lighting, refrigeration air -conditioning and the construction process, and these demands vary between the urban and the rural sectors. 70 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 4.10: Building and residential sector emissions from scenarios The energy resource assessed in the residential sector includes electricity (off-grid and on- grid), natural gas, liquefied Petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, wood, charcoal, dung, and other biomass waste, solar and candle, with percentage contribution shown in Figure 4.11. The relatively high volume of wood and charcoal use in GES and RES by 2060 is attributed to the significant adoption of improved cookstoves matched with the reforestation programme at the rate of 5% and 2.3%, respectively. Figure 4.11: Percentage share of fuel used in building and residential sector. Figure 4.12a shows the number of households that will use the improved cookstoves, across the horizon for the three decarbonisation scenarios. As expected, the RES has the highest number of households that will use the improved cookstoves by 2060 because the improved cookstoves can be classified as renewable energy with the adequate match of reforestation and forest management programmes. However, the number of households using improved cookstoves (4.31 million households) in the current policy scenario (CPS) is less than the 71 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 number (7.3 million households) presented in the NDC by 2030, which reflects the ETP electrification of cooking services since CPS is anchored on NDC and ETP. Figures 4.12b and 4.12c show the share of urban and rural number of households with improved cookstoves, with the urban population having a higher share because of the growth in urban population; urban households grew from 56% in 2020 to 81% by 2060. The adoption of improved biomass cookstoves (especially in the GES) was envisaged to be driven by the freezing of petroleum products subsidies which will drive prices of kerosene and LPG higher with the resulting shift to biomass use, especially in rural communities. However, health concerns about the use of improved biomass cookstoves are still a subject of debate and research as some existing improved biomass (briquette and pelletised biomass) cookstoves show reduced health risks47. 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 14000 12642 Households (Thousand Households) 10250 12000 10000 8719 8314 8144 8000 6333 5624 5743 6000 4309 3745 3701 4000 2519 2774 2558 2000 1350 0 CPS GES RES (a) Total number of households using improved cookstoves 47 Thakur et al. (2018) Impact of improved cookstoves on women’s and child health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis - http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2017-210952 72 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 12000 9769 Households (Thousand Households) 10000 8000 7192 6243 6000 4926 4926 4880 3525 4000 2881 3013 2029 2000 1231 1126 565 740 0 0 CPS GES RES (b) Rural split of households using improved cookstoves 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 4000 3388 3218 Households (Thousand Households) 3077 3500 3058 2873 2743 2730 3000 2619 2476 2500 1954 2034 2000 1453 1350 1500 1000 529 500 176 0 CPS GES RES (c) Urban split of households using improved cookstoves Figure 4.12: Number of households using improved cook stoves under various scenarios. 73 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 4.3.2 Mitigation Measures for the Building and Residential Sector The vital strategic measures to reduce GHG emissions in the building sector and make buildings considerably more energy efficient and transit to net-zero emissions by 2060 will focus on the following five (5) key thematic areas: i. Improving access to clean and affordable energy in residential buildings, which includes 90% of households in the urban areas and 80% of households in the rural areas using electricity from clean sources by 2060. ii. Ensuring massive penetration of renewable energy technologies for household use such as adoption of improved cookstoves, includings the replacement of inefficient technologies by 100% with efficient ones by 2060. iii. Sensitising private sector participation in supporting households in acquiring the appropriate renewable energy technology that includes a share of clean cooking to 50% in 2030 and 95% in 2060. iv. Providing subsidised renewable v. energy materials and equipment and ensuring a pricing structure and feed-in-tariff (FiT) for the household renewable energy equipment. vi. Encouraging the construction of green buildings through the development/implementation of relevant policies. The mitigation strategies presented will help reduce emissions from the residential and building sectors by at least 79% compared to the 2018 emissions of about 25 mtCO 2e from the building and residential sectors of the country. However, for effectiveness, these measures are to be implemented with a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) policy framework that will prioritise the building and residential sector in the country’s national climate change strategies as key to meeting national GHG emission reduction targets in the building sector. The Government will also use appropriate policy instruments such as regulatory, fiscal, economic, informational and capacity-building measures to (i) increase the energy efficiency of buildings; (ii) increase the energy efficiency of appliances that use energy; (iii) encourage energy generation and distribution companies to support emission reductions in the sector; (iv) change attitudes and behaviour towards energy consumption; and (v) promote the substitution of fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy 48. 4.4 Oil & Gas Sector 4.4.1 Emissions from Oil and Gas Sector The oil and gas sector is one of the main drivers of the Nigerian economy. Oil has contributed significantly to the total export revenue since the 1990s, for example, over 86% of the total export revenues in 202149. According to a study conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), foreign direct investment in the oil and gas sector significantly impacts Nigeria's economic growth. But even if the oil and gas sector remains reasonably strong over the next three decades, the imperative to decarbonize the sector remains strong, given its contribution to climate change. In addition, 48 UNEP (2009): Buildings and Climate Change – Summary for Decision Makers 49 OPEC (2021) Nigeria facts and figures, Annual Statistical Bulletin. Available at: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/1 67.htm 74 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 it is necessary for Nigeria to seize the opportunities in the global shift from oil and gas utilisation to the decarbonisation space to position its economy on the path of shared socio- economic prosperity in the long term. For example, the current analysis shows that more than 50% of the emissions from the energy sector were from the oil and gas sub-sector in 2018, which are related to commercial production and transformation of oil and gas. Figure 4.13 shows the emissions from the scenarios with respect to the time horizon under the oil and gas sector. As expected, the figure indicates that the BAU has the highest emissions across the years under consideration. However, there will be remarkable reductions in emissions in the next four decades, for example, about 79% emission reduction in 2060 compared with the base year (2018) emissions. The GES and RES have a huge reduction in emissions in 2060 compared with 2018 emissions at 97.4% and 98.5%, respectively. The drastic reduction can be attributed to the use of carbon capture technology, the application of advanced technology for methane leak containment, the elimination of gas flaring and the elimination of other fugitive emissions. Figure 4.13: Emissions from the oil and gas sector under various scenarios Figure 4.14 presents the contributions of emissions from the oil and gas sector to the total emissions under various scenarios and time horizons. It is shown that between 2020 and 2030, the oil and gas sector will contribute significantly to the total emissions across the scenarios, which is followed by average marginal reduction beyond 2030 except for the RES scenario. The relatively high percentage in emissions contribution between 2050 and 2060 by the oil and gas sector (at low emissions of 4 mtCO 2e in 2060, for example) under the RES scenario is attributed to massive natural-based carbon sink due to reforestation (at the rate of 2.3% per annum) and excellent forest management. The natural carbon sink (negative emissions) from the AFOLU sector will intuitively amplify the little emissions (4 mtCO2e) from the oil and gas sector in the total emission (14 mtCO2e in 2060, for example). In addition, the oil and gas sector emissions contribution to the aggregated energy sector in 2030 and 2060 will be 30% (BAU), 39% (CPS), 37% (GES) and 22% (RES), and 4.5% (BAU), 17.7% (CPS), 1.2% (GES) and 5.4%(RES), respectively. 75 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 4.14: Oil and Gas Sector Emissions Contribution to Total Emissions 4.4.2 Mitigation Measures for the Oil and Gas Sector From the scenario analysis, the strategic measures recommended for reducing emissions from the oil and gas sector by over 96% to achieve net-zero emission in 2060 include the following: i. Introducing and/or accelerating the uptake of carbon capture storage technologies at a 10% annual growth rate with emphasis on the following: • Deploying significant CCS on production platforms. • Significantly deploying CCS throughout the value chains of oil and gas • Accelerating the standardisation of CCS to improve its cost, scheduling, and safety, enabling its widespread implementation using best global practices. • Aggressive financing of CCS technology, deployment, and capacity building to target local professionals. • Building capacities in Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) to quantify emissions granularly. ii. Improving emission management in the oil and gas sector to attain a 97.5% reduction in process gas losses, mainly methane leak containment through early carbon capture technologies. iii. Enabling policy that mandates all oil and gas companies to present annually verifiable Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) showing the greenhouse emissions from their organisation. iv. Eliminating gas flaring by 2030 entails adopting industry standards to reduce GHG emissions while minimising natural resource loss from the gas flare to achieve 0% gas flaring by 2030. v. Deploying advanced fugitive emission curtailment technologies to achieve at least 85% methane leakage by 2050 and progressively to 98% by 2060 that include effective regulatory measures. 76 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 vi. Incorporating renewable energy technology into the sector to meet at least 50% of operations’ energy demand by 2050. vii. Using gas in the form of LPG as a transition fuel in the short term to facilitate the establishment of low-carbon energy development to address the nation’s clean cooking deficit. This measure will be emphasised by: • Providing infrastructure to support nationwide gas collection, transmission, and distribution. • Sensitisation on clean cooking initiative • Incentivize industrial and domestic consumers to shift to gas usage. • Support standardisation and rapid adoption of technologies across the sectors. The Government will continue to build on the momentum of the Energy Transition Plan (ETP) in integrating the country’s energy mix to align with the net-zero target. Regulations currently in the process of implementation and those still under development represent a radical shift towards lowering and ultimately removing emissions across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the oil and gas. The mitigating measures take cognisance of the energy trilemma50/dilemma and aim to strike the necessary balance to achieve the energy transition plan of the country. In line with the National Gas Policy, the scenarios analysis clearly shows gas as the transition path for the country as it moves Nigeria from a crude oil export-based to a gas-based industrial economy by 2030. Nigeria has about 209.5 trillion cubic feet 51. It is an enormous resource that would drive cleaner, affordable, sustainable, and secured energy balance for the country. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 aligns very well with implementing measures vis-a-vis collaborations with several industry regulators across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors to achieve the net-zero target. 4.5 Industrial Sector 4.5.1 Emissions from Industrial Sector Several forms of pollution including the release of greenhouse gases (GHG), come from the industrial sector. Nevertheless, the industrial sector remains one active domain for both developed and developing nations due to its huge positive economic benefits while contributing to significant GHG emissions. In Nigeria, although the percentage of emissions contribution from industry is relatively low according to the current analysis (4.56% in 2020), the sector still plays a huge role in the country’s GDP contributing about 14.16 and 33.34% between 1988 and 2018 of the nation’s total 52. Furthermore, with the country’s population expected to reach nearly 401 million in 2050, making it the world’s third most populous country, there is huge potential for industrial expansion in manufacturing, cement, and related sub-sectors that will substantially increase emissions. 50 A situation where there is need to find a balance between energy reliability, affordability and sustainability. 51 PWC Report, 2020: Evaluating Nigeria’s Gas Value Chain 52 NBS: National Bureau of Statistics, (2020). Annual Abstract of Statistics. Federal Republic Nigeria, Abuja. 77 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 The emissions from the industry sector are presented in Figure 4.15. From the BAU, emission will reach 133.39 mtCO 2e in 2060, which is about 7 times the 2018 emissions. The cement industry contributed 42.9% (8.3 MMTCO 2e) of the industry emissions (19.34 mtCO 2e in 2018, whereas it will contribute about 43.9% (58.5 mtCO 2e) of the 2060 emissions under the BAU scenario (2.3% increase). However, the emission presented does not account for the emissions associated with power generation to avoid double accounting of the power sector emissions. The emissions from GES and RES are steadily decreasing because of the massive utilisation of carbon capture and sequestration technology and electrified efficient systems in the cement industry. To obtain the industrial emissions reduction in 2060, the CPS scenario will require about 42% of CCS in energy requirements from natural gas utilisations. Similarly, the GES and RES will require about 58 and 22%, respectively of CCS. Figure 4.15: Industry Emissions from Various Scenarios 4.5.2 Mitigation Measures for the Industrial Sector The following are four measures to take low-carbon pathways such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, and resource waste reduction, among others, for the industry sector: i. Developing and adopting Carbon Capturing, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) technologies, including pre- and post-combustion capturing processes. For example: • Capturing carbon from industrial process stream. • Adopting CCUS technologies in the cement industry by at least 58% by 2060 • Adopting of CCUS technology in other industries such as Rice Mills (parboiling of rice), fertiliser blending (Chemical Mixers), Aluminum Smelting and Iron and steel (Blast Furnaces), among others. • Reducing clinker-to-cement ratio by blending mineral substitutes and using lower-carbon alternative fuels to fire the kiln. ii. Creating micro-distribution systems by creating clusters within areas for more accessible and straightforward energy utilisation. This requires: • Undertaking feasibility surveys and mapping industrial clusters • Determining the energy requirement for various clusters. 78 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 • Connecting the clusters to various nearby non-grid power generation system iii. Immediate shifting to the use of bioenergy sources and adoption of cleaner energy sources in production processes iv. Incorporating the renewable energy mix in the industry, at least by the energy mix in the power sector v. Using gas as a transition fuel in the short term to facilitate the establishment of low- carbon energy development to address industrial needs. Enabling innovations for the implementation of these strategies in the industry sector will include: i. Effective stakeholder engagement. ii. Ensuring synergy among policies and institutions. iii. Enhanced research on catalysis technology that can facilitate and improve the production process at a lower energy consumption. iv. Syndicate financing and special intervention funds for the industry sector in implementing the LT-LEDS. v. Promoting the implementation of policies (e.g., National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP) (2015), the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) (2016), and the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) Action Agenda (2016)) and regulations on industry-related to energy efficiency, renewable energy, and emissions regulation. vi. Investing in innovative technology to locally produce more energy-efficient machines and equipment for use in the country at affordable prices. 79 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 4.6.1 Transport Sector 4.6.1 Emissions from Transport Sector In Nigeria, transportation is a significant contributor to energy-related carbon emissions accounting for 16% of the national inventory (67.3 mtCO 2e in 2018). The road transport segment is the most energy and emission intensive as it accommodates to a large extent the transport requirements of the population53. The road transport fleet increased from 8.5 million vehicles in 2000 to 12.4 million in 2018, mainly determined by private transport demand. Despite the rapid growth of the fleet, ageing vehicles lacking emission control technologies still characterise the fleet. Regarding urban passenger transportation, public systems and non-motorised modes are the predominant alternatives for travelling. Conventional transit bus systems are common in all cities in Nigeria, while the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems are in place in the largest cities, as can be seen in Lagos and Abuja. Regarding freight transportation, more than 90% of goods in the country are transported by trucks. In terms of energy demand, road cargo is the segment that uses the most energy and made up about 32% of all the energy demanded by road transportation in 2018. Most light- duty vehicles are gasoline powered, whereas heavy-duty vehicles, including buses and trucks, run on diesel. The share of other energy carriers, such as natural gas and electricity, contributes to less than 1% of the final energy consumption in 2018. Energy consumption in the transport sector is expected to increase significantly with economic growth and population increase from 2018 to 2060. The transport sector model is divided into domestic aviation, road, rail, and domestic shipping. In domestic aviation, passenger air travels increased from 9.1 billion p-km54 to 131.1 billion p-km from 2018 to 2060. On the other hand, air freight increased from 19.8 million tonne-km to 286 million tonne-km between 2018-2060. Road transport is subdivided into passenger and freight. Passenger and freight vehicle activities within road transport rose from 9.6 and 2.7 million vehicles in 2018 to 51.2 and 14.4 million in 2060, respectively. Road passenger vehicles are composed of cars and taxis (62.8%), motorcycles and three-wheelers (12.8%), and buses (24.4%), while freight is composed of light-duty vehicles (59.1%) and heavy-duty vehicles (40.9%) in the base year, 2018. Similarly, rail transport is subdivided into passenger and freight, with rail passenger mobility increasing from 1.7 billion p-km in 2018 to 5.1 billion p- km in 2060, while rail freight movement increases from 1.34 million tonne-km to 168.4 million tonne-km between 2018 and 2060. Domestic shipping activities are projected to increase from US$649.1 billion to above US$6 trillion in 2060. The transport model adopts the transport configuration of the National Gas Expansion Program (NGEP) and the 2021 updated NDC. The distribution of the transport sector and sub- sector emissions for the three scenarios under the period of 2020-2060 is shown in Figure 4.16. Across the alternative scenarios, emissions peaks in 2040 in the CPS (95.59 mtCO2e) and 53 Emodi, N.V, Okereke, C., Abam, F.I., Diemuodeke E.O. etal (2022) Transport sector decarbonisation in the Global South: A sy stematic literature review, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.100925 54 Passenger kilometre 80 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 2050 in both GES (236.34 mtCO2e) and RES (111.99 mtCO 2e) scenarios. The rate of decline, which visibly lowers the projected increase in GHG under the BAU scenario, is attributed to the policy assumptions outlined in Appendix 3. Figure 4.16: Transport sector GHG profile 2020-2060 Transport emissions under the GES are higher than the CPS and RES scenarios due to the high integration of CNG vehicles in the transport sector, which is expected to replace 45% of Nigeria's current passenger and freight mobility stock. Although non-mobility measures such as car sharing, cycling, and walking are implemented to decrease passenger movements within the model, emissions in the GES will only decrease to 212.45 mtCO2e by 2060. In the CPS scenario, the lower emission trend compared to the GES is attributed to the shift in transport mode as 43% of car users are expected to move to BRT buses following the updated NDC programme. Also, the dependency on diesel for freight transport (LDV and HDV) decreases as the use of LPG and electricity increases by 15% and 85%, respectively. The decrease in emissions under the GES reshapes the percentage contribution of transport modes as road mobility emissions reduce to 79% in 2060 from 98% in 2020. In the more ambitious RES, Nigeria’s transport sector is decarbonised with a target of shifting 50% of road passenger car transport to BRT buses and 40% of the buses are fully electric. About 80% of the remaining road passenger vehicles are expected to be electrified, while 40% of buses will be powered by ethanol before 2060. Other non-mobility measures are implemented in addition to the introduction of EURO IV efficiency standards for all road vehicles. A combination of the transportation sector policies in the RES will displace 205.62 mtCO2e and 51.34 mtCO2e recorded in the GES and CPS scenarios by 2060, respectively. 81 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 4.6.2 Mitigation Measures for the Transport Sector The following are four (4) proposed categorised strategies for low emission development in the transport sector of Nigeria based on the need to: i Wide adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and ethanol vehicles through: • Encouraging and promoting the use of electric and ethanol vehicles by at least 55% and 45%, respectively, of light-duty vehicles by 2060. • The promotion of at least 40% of the buses fully electric, about 80% of the remaining road passenger vehicles electrified, and 40% of buses powered by ethanol before 2060. • The use of electric and ethanol-powered motorcycles and three-wheelers to substitute gasoline motorcycles and three-wheelers 100% by 2060. • The implementation of the national plan on electric vehicles (EVs), the National Vehicular Emission Control Programme (NVECP). • The implementation of the Nigerian biofuel policy to support the adoption of ethanol vehicles. • Providing charging infrastructure along major roads and designated public places. • Providing incentives for private investment in EVs. ii Encouraging massive deployment of CNG and LPG vehicles up to 2060. Emphasis will be to: • Accelerate the implementation of the Presidential CNG initiatives on national adoption of CNG-fuelled vehicles. • Strengthen the adoption of Circular Economy principles, such as sharing, leasing, reusing, repairing, refurbishing, and recycling existing materials and products as long as possible. iii Adopting measures to reduce or avoid travel. This will entail: • Making city centres ‘Car-less’ by encouraging the use of mass transit options such as waterways, rail, and air. • Focusing on Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) in the planning, design, managing and budgeting stages of transport projects, including the use of animal-cart in rural areas, cycling, etc. • Encouraging the use of bicycles as a green and environmentally friendly means of transportation by mapping out dedicated cycling routes in urban centres. • Adopting up-to-date Transport Information Technology for efficient management of transport infrastructures. Iv Shift to low-carbon mode. This involves: • Shifting 50% of road passenger car transport to BRT buses. • Improving vehicle standards, inspection, and enforcement of relevant regulations for behavioural change. • Developing and implementing eco-friendly transportation policy and system. 82 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 • Embarking on public sensitisation on safe driving and proper road use. • Introducing EURO IV efficiency standards for all road vehicles • Working with the private sector to transition to soot-free transport. (Box 2) Box 2: Example of Private Sector-Led Transition to Soot Free Mass Transit. To attain a climate friendly and sustainable city road transport system in Lagos State through the Lagos Metropolitan Transport Authority in 2022, signed with Oando Clean Energy Limited (OCEL) a Memorandum of Understanding. This enables the successful deployment of an Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Ecosystem (electric buses, charging stations, and other supporting infrastructure). Over the next seven years, and through the rollout of over 12,000 buses, this initiative will transition the current combustion mass transit buses to electric, starting in Lagos State and eventually across the country. In the medium to long term, the efforts within sustainable transport will lead to improved air quality, enhance public health, enable the employment of at least 3,000 new drivers and an additional 2,000 workers to support bus maintenance, depot management, etc., as well as estimated economic cost savings of $2.6billions (3.6% of Lagos state GDP) The EV rollout plan is aligned with the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan, specifically supporting the Government’s roadmap for EV implementation across Nigeria and its ambition to boost local capacity in the medium term through the construction of EV assembly plants. Source: https://punchng.com/oando-receives-electric-mass-transit-buses-for-lagos/ 4.7 Waste Sector 4.7.1 Emissions from Waste Sector Wastes (solid and liquid) constitute a significant threat to health and the environment due to uncontrollable and illegally dumped wastes in open spaces without proper waste management55. Waste management aims to reduce the amount of “unusable substances” and prevent potential environmental and health hazards. In general, waste mismanagement is an epidemic in Nigeria, and it is responsible for air, soil, and water contaminations with severe health challenges. The waste, trash, or garbage, is derived from the mix of everyday items from local residences, businesses, industries, and public institutions, including hospitals and schools. The wastes contain biomass-derived materials (for example, paper, food scraps, cardboard etc.) and non-biomass-derived materials (for example, plastics, glass, metals, appliances, and batteries). Biodegradable wastes are responsible for the emission of GHGs like methane, nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide. In recent years, Nigeria experienced an increased volume of electronic waste (e-waste). Nigeria is the leading importer of electronic and electrical appliances in the African continent, with half a million-tonne of waste generation capacity annually56. E-waste is attributed to some health challenges like respiratory and dermatological diseases, eye infections and a decrease in life expectancy. 55 Diemuodeke E.O. et al (2022) Agricultural waste-derived management for bioenergy: a paradigm shifts in the waste perceptions; https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-06562-0_13. 56 UNEP, 2023: Nigeria acts to fight growing e-waste epidemic; https://www.unep.org/gef/news-and-stories/press-release/nigeria-acts- fight-growing-e-waste-epidemic. 83 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 However, the Nigerian Government has recently made move towards the curbing of the e- waste challenges in the country by amending the national environmental regulations for sustainable e-waste management 57. The emissions in the waste sector are presented in Figure 4.17 The emissions in waste fall from 43.37 mtCO 2e in 2020 to 19.33 mtCO2e in 2060 and 40.73 mtCO2e in 2020 to 0.15 mtCO2e in 2060, for the GES and RES, respectively. The fall in waste emissions is due to improved waste management practices and waste-to-energy generation, assuming a circular economy, especially in RES. On the other hand, most of the waste in the RES is used for power generation, where the emissions have been well accounted for in the power generation processes using the waste. Figure 4.17: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Waste Sector 4.7.2 Mitigation Measures for the Waste Sector The key strategic measure for the Waste Sector includes: Adopting the circular economy approach is essential towards achieving long -term low emissions in Nigeria. The mitigation strategies in the waste sector by 2060 will focus on the following two key thematic areas: i. Adoption of the circular economy approach in waste management and ii. Improving the waste management process. 57 NESREA: https://www.nesrea.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/EE-sector-regulations-2022.pdf. 84 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 i. Adoption of the Circular Economy (CE) approach in waste management. This will entail: • Developing and implementing National and sub-national circular economic policies and action plans. • Promoting and developing grassroots awareness campaigns to inform and influence more sustainable consumption patterns and product designs that efficiently utilise materials to reduce emissions. • Promoting collaboration with the private sector to upscale and finance circular economy. • Encouraging the conversion of organic /agricultural waste to animal feeds. • Encouraging and promoting waste-to-energy technologies to support the power sector. • Implementation of regulations in collaboration with relevant stakeholders for use of secondary products (energy and materials recovered from waste) by industry and other private sectors. ii. Improve waste management process. This involves: • Adequately implementing and enforcing policy on waste management • Setting up paper, plastic, glass and metal separation systems in all state capitals and municipalities. • Adopting renewable energy in cooling storage systems to reduce waste and loss of food items. • Promoting waste reduction through efficient material designs. Overall, the Government of Nigeria will increase awareness and understanding of the circular economy coupled with all stakeholders taking responsibility and investing in solutions, especially adopting, and imbibing the circular economy paradigm in their everyday living. This will also remove the barriers of poor waste management systems and cultural barriers regarding lack of consumer interest and awareness and a hesitant use and recycling culture. In view of emerging issues, the country will take cognisance of circular models. Increasingly, there are demonstrable projects in this CE sector to ensure zero-carbon emission, for instance, through biomass waste (Box 3). 85 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Box 3: Zero Carbon Emission through biomass waste-: Dangote Cement Plant Alternative Project Dangote Cement Plc., Ibese Plant, recently announced it was taking possession of some 100 trucks. The trucks were customised for easy transportation of biomass waste from all over the country for the Alternative Fuel project. The Alternative Fuel Project presents a win-win opportunity for the Plant and Nigeria such that the waste that would have contributed to environmental degradation is being evacuated from the communities at a cost and employed as fuels in the Plant, thereby reducing the Plant’s carbon footprint and energy cost and simultaneously providing direct and indirect job opportunities. The Plant is committed to collecting biomass waste from anywhere available to feed its alternative fuel machines during cement production in line with its zero-carbon emission blueprint and in conformity with the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal No 13. The dedicated and customised fleet would increase the availability of biomass waste for the Plant’s consumption by 50%, thereby boosting the Plant’s posture on partial substitution of fossil fuels. The recourse to alternative fuel is strategic given that the cement manufacturing industry is considered a contributor to CO 2 emissions globally. Cement production requires massive amounts of energy, while carbon dioxide is emitted during the conversion of limestone, a key natural ingredient, to clinker, an intermediate component of finished cement. Emissions also arise from the combustion of fossil fuels in the kiln and the production of electricity to power the Plant. In summary, while the goal is to divert waste from landfills, it serves to reduce its carbon footprint, conscious of the impact of global warming and carbon emissions. Simultaneously it is aimed at providing sustainable income opportunities for numerous households that are part of the agro-waste value chain. Source : https://theeagleonline.com.ng/zero-carbon-emission-dangote-cement-ibese- commissions-trucks-for-biomass-waste-management/ 4.8 Macroeconomic Implications of the Long-Term Low Emission Strategy Policymakers expect to understand the long-term impacts of the long-term strategy beyond its techno-economic feasibility, energy supply and emissions impacts within the energy sector58. Given the vast importance of energy in several dimensions of human activities and the economy of Nigeria, it is expected that shocks in the energy sector (i.e., changes in key energy variables) would extend to other sectors and affect macroeconomic outcomes. The impacts could be measured in terms of real gross domestic product (including per capita) impacts, households’ available income, employment, etc. Therefore, the macroeconomics modelling presented below is a first exploration of the macro- and socio-economic 58 Emenekwe et al. (2022). Macroeconomics of decarbonization strategies of selected global south countries: A systematic review. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.938017 86 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 consequences of the pathways for the Nigerian economy in the medium run, based on a coherent, hybrid modelling framework. 4.8.1 Macroeconomics Scenario Description The KLEM-NGA model was produced by coupling with the LEAP-NGA and used to explore five scenarios: ▪ A Baseline scenario that projects the Nigerian economy in the absence of any major change of its energy system, but under the assumption of structural transformations allowing it to converge to a stabilised growth path in year 2035 (Baseline). ▪ Deriving from the Baseline, three distinct evolutions of the Nigerian energy system (described in section 3.2) (CPS, GES, RES). ▪ One last scenario considering the RES evolution of the Nigerian energy system but relying on international aid to fund the incremental energy supply investment required to shift from the CPS to the RES energy trajectory (RES+). Each of the five scenarios is built on sets of both shared and specific macroeconomics and energy assumptions. 4.8.2 Macroeconomics Scenario Assumptions Four macroeconomic assumptions are used to calibrate the model with three of them common to all scenarios. The first two macroeconomics assumptions common to all explored scenarios are the potential economic growth and the underlying investment effort. The third assumption is a trade balance trajectory constraint, and is common to Baseline, CPS, GES, and RES scenarios, but not for the case of RES+ scenario. The fourth macroeconomics assumption, which is a positive trade shock is also common to all scenarios. The first macroeconomics element common to all the scenarios is potential growth, resulting from the combination of exogenous assumptions of active population growth (interpreted by KLEM as the labour supply) and labour productivity (Figure 4.18). These assumptions are deduced from the statistical series of real GDP and employed population reported by the World Bank for Nigeria from 2018 to 2021 59. The dynamic calibration allows, therefore, to include the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Subsequently, they are inspired by the second scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The potential average annual growth rate of real GDP resulting from these assumptions over the period 2021-2060 is 5.87%. This growth rate fares better than Nigeria’s historical trends of 3.68% over 1961-2021, 3.07% over 1980-2021 or 5.23% over 2000-2021(World Bank’s World Development Indicators Database). 59 World Bank data (2018-2021), SSP2 of the IPCC (2021-2060) 87 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Real GDP Growth Index (= 1 in 2018) 10 Labour endowment Labour productivity Potential GDP 8 6 4 2 0 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 2060 Years Figure 4.18: Exogenous Labour Productivity and Active Population (Labour Force) Trajectories, which Define Potential Growth in KLEM-NGA60. The second macroeconomics element common to all scenarios is the assumption regarding the investment effort61. Calibration of the investment rate trajectory on the potential growth trajectory results in investment efforts declining slightly over the projection horizon, starting at 33.1% in 2021 and declining to reaching 28.7% of GDP in 2060. The third macroeconomics assumptions encompass a gradual (linear) reduction in the trade deficit in goods and services, including energy, from its estimated level of -3.5% in 2021 to -1% in 2035 and beyond.62 This is common to all scenarios except RES+. In the RES+ scenario, however, the trade balance objective is relaxed by an amount equivalent to the difference between the investment in energy supply required in the CPS and RES scenarios. The underlying policy assumption is that, in the RES+ scenario, Nigeria benefits from foreign transfers (without repayment required) corresponding to the level of necessary incremental investment in the energy sector to shift from the CPS to the RES energy trajectory. This constraint on the trade balance aims to reflect the Nigerian economy's expectations and development objectives in the medium term. Without additional assumption, under the baseline scenario, constraining trade deficit to -1% induces a downward adjustment of the real effective exchange rate (REER 63) of the Nigerian economy in KLEM-NGA, thus implying an increase in the cost of Nigerian imports relative to domestic consumption and a gain in competitiveness for the country's exports on world markets, to reach the targeted trade deficit. This downward adjustment in the exchange rate 60 World Bank data (2018-2021), SSP2 of the IPCC (2021-2060) 61 There is no assumption regarding capital productivity. Transformations, notably linked to structural changes in the economic activity, will be more legitimately analysed within the multisectoral framework of IMACLIM-NGA, of which KLEM-NGA is the precursor. 62 The option of an exogenous investment effort and trade balance corresponds to the so-called Johansen macroeconomics closure: public policies control the level of savings in the national economy to guarantee a certain investment effort, given the contribution of imported savings (the opposite of the goods and services balance). 63 The REER is defined as the relative price level of the Nigerian household consumption basket and the import basket of the eco nomy. Like most macroeconomics models used in the energy/economy forecast, KLEM does not represent any currency, which it therefore implicitly considers as neutral. The REER fluctuations calculated by the model can however be interpreted as nominal exchange rate adjustments of the same magnitude, which would have a similar effect on the competitiveness of the economy. 88 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 inevitably leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of Nigerian wages, as imported consumption becomes more expensive. As the desired trade balance is achieved through a relative price adjustment, we can expect that the constraint of a gradual control of the trade deficit will accumulate. Thus the country's external debt, results in macroeconomics and social performances that are below the average annual potential growth deduced by labour endowment and labour productivity (see Figure 4.19). As a matter of fact, the unemployment rate nearly triples reaching 26% in 2060 in the Baseline scenario, compared to an already high 8.46% level in 2018, while the annual average GDP growth rate reaches 4.45%, thus below the growth potential of 5.57% for the 2018-2060 period, due to a decrease in consumption by households of both imported and domestic goods and services. Moreover, based on the GDP index, this would translate into a GDP 33% below its potential in 2060. Primary Axis: Real GDP Growth Index (= 1 in 2018); Secondary Axis: Unemployment Rate (%) Natural growth GDP index Unemployment rate 10 30% Unemployment rate, (%) 8 25% 20% 6 Index 15% 4 10% 2 5% 0 0% 2018 2024 2030 2036 2042 2048 2054 2060 Year Figure 4.19: GDP Index and Unemployment Rate Development Assuming Only Trade Deficit 64 Accordingly, due to the unacceptable socioeconomic performances of the Baseline scenario, it was decided to create an additional macroeconomics variant, encompassing a structural transformation of the Nigerian economy. This variant simulates a positive non-price competitiveness shock that reduces the trade deficit and increases non-energy exports while negatively impacting non-energy imports and unemployment rates. Rather than assuming some level of shock and measuring its macroeconomics consequences, the flexibility of KLEM allows to reverse causalities and reveal what shock is necessary to converge the Nigerian economy towards some stabilised growth path. We define that path by extending the macroeconomics constraints of the model to the socioeconomic objective of the unemployment rate declining from 8.46% in 2018 to 5.0% in 2035 and beyond This resulting shock level—estimated under the baseline conditions—was uniformly applied across all scenarios. The magnitude of this shock, corresponding to the implementation of public policies aimed at generating positive, non-price competitiveness and development of exports capacities of non-energy goods and services, must grow rapidly to reach 74% in 2030, before culminating at approximately 100% in 2035, then slowly decreasing to 78% in 2060. The actual 64 Computation released by the author using the KLEM-NGA model. 89 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 magnitude of the shock is better interpreted by considering that non-energy imports and exports mobilise 13.2% and 2.4%, respectively, of Nigerian GDP at our 2018 calibration year. The development of domestic alternatives to imports is thus the major political objective to be pursued to concretise our Baseline scenario. Trade Shock Indexed as 1 in 2018 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 2060 Years Figure 4.20: Trade Shock (Index 1 in 2018), Baseline Scenario 65 4.8.3 Macroeconomics Scenario Results The first set of key results (see Figure 4.21) shows the implication of the scenarios on economic activities. At first glance, it appears as though energy system options do not to significantly impact Nigerian activity growth over the explored horizon (see, left panel). By design, the positive trade shock introduced to shape the Baseline scenario into a ‘stabilised’ benchmark trajectory, i.e. one of controlled trade deficit and reduced unemployment, induces growth roughly in line with its potential of combined labour supply and productivity gains (see Section Error! Reference source not found.2).66 The sustained pace at which this p otential increases dwarfs any activity differential across scenarios. However, the year-by-year gap between the GDPs attained by each scenario, (Figure 4.21b) makes for better reading of results. In broad terms, the CPS and GES Scenarios lead to economic activity levels that are slightly higher than Baseline activity, while the RES activity increasingly lags behind all three. However, the RES+ marks the benefits of the surmised international support that differentiates it from RES: it dominates all other scenarios up to 2054, when it roughly falls in line with the more active of them (first with CPS then with GES). 65 Computation released by the author using the KLEM-NGA model. 66 It is important to underline again that this economic performance is conditional to the successful implementation of public p olicies aimed at generating the positive, non-price competitiveness shock, at no macroeconomically significant cost. 90 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 4.21a Figure 4.21b Before 2035, the growth of all scenarios increasingly overshoots its potential thanks to the gradual reduction of the unemployment rate (Figure 4.21c).67 The positive trade shock benefits activity by mobilising more of the available workforce to address the rising foreign demand for Nigerian exports and, more importantly, the substitution of national production to imports. The 2035 peaking of the favourable trade shock (Figure 4.20) induces a sharp turning point for the comparison of all scenarios to potential Figure 4.21c growth as well as, expectedly for their unemployment results.68 Detailed Figure 4.21: Economic Activity of the modelling results highlight two major Scenarios causes to that scenario differentiation: the impact of scenario assumptions on the cost share of energy in non-energy production, and that on energy trade. Non-energy production constitutes the larger share of Nigerian economic activity. It generates 86% of Nigerian GDP at our 2018 calibration year, and the proportion increases through time in all scenarios as the limited availability of oil and gas resources significantly constrains the development of energy supply activities. KLEM is designed in such a way that any increase in the cost share of energy in non-energy production drags growth of that production below its potential through losses of competitiveness on domestic and international markets, in favour of the international variety of non-energy goods and services. The evolution of that cost share hangs in turn on the combined evolutions of the energy intensity of non-energy production and of the price of energy to the non-energy producer. 67 Potential growth only considers labour supply (active population) and labour productivity variations, under the implicit assu mption of a constant unemployment rate. 68 The sharpness of the turning point must not be over interpreted. It results from the choice of a linear convergence of the un employment rate to 5% in 2035 as target to the trade shock calibration process Smoother convergence assumptions would deliver smoother GDP and unemployment profiles. 91 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 In all scenarios, the energy intensity of non-energy production decreases through time (Figure 4.22, left panel). This implies energy efficiency gains. In the Baseline scenario, the gains happen at the average pace of 1.30% a year. CPS brings that pace to 2.01% a year, while RES and RES+ push it further to 2.33% and 2.31% a year. GES, which only records gain of 0.81% per year, stands out as more inefficient than Baseline. The RES, RES+ and CPS scenarios clearly achieve better efficiency gain due to the effort to improve energy efficiency as per scenario design. Figure 4.22: Energy intensity and cost share of non-energy production across scenarios.69 Energy cost for non-energy production rises the highest in baseline and GES up to 2025, and falls (for baseline) afterwards below every other scenario (Figure 4.22, right panel). The above ordering of cost share evolutions is the reason for the lower activity of RES compared to CPS or Baseline, as well as that for the relative closeness of the latter two scenarios. Higher cost shares affect competitiveness on domestic and international markets. However, the trade balance is pre-determined in all scenarios including RES+ (although laxer). The loss of competitiveness thus induces downward adjustments of the real effective exchange rate (REER, the ratio of domestic to international prices) to warrant that trade balance objectives are met. These adjustments are the ultimate cause of the loss of activity through the increase of import costs for the producers and consumers alike. As could be expected from the modelling choice of controlling trade deficits i.e., the foreign debt accumulation, trade effects are central to the macroeconomics consequences of the energy system cost differentiation. There are, however, more direct consequences of the five scenarios on trade (i.e., their impacts on the import and export of energy commodities). The impact of scenarios on energy trade and its propagation to non-energy trade via the trade balance constraint is the other major driver of scenario assessment. In Baseline, the unchecked rise of domestic energy consumptions disturbs the export capacity to the point that Nigeria becomes net energy importer (in money value) in 2042, ending up necessitating 0.89% of its 2060 GDP to cover the incurred net costs. GES also experiences a more rapid decline of its export capacity than other scenarios because of unchecked domestic energy demand increases. However, it allows Nigeria to remain a net energy exporter through the development of natural gas extraction, 69 Computation released by the author using the KLEM-NGA model. 92 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 as well as the substitution of the domestically extracted gas with imports of refined oil products. Lastly, CPS, RES, and RES+ benefit from transitions of domestic energy demand away from fossil fuels that allow Nigeria, despite lower production levels, to remain a net energy exporter. In those three scenarios net export revenues, although rapidly declining in early years, remain above 2% of GDP. Figure 4.23: Trade implication of the scenarios. 70 The 1% trade deficit objective of Baseline, CPS, GES, and RES warrants that the dynamics of the contributions of non-energy trade to GDP mirror those of energy trade (Figure 4.23, right panel). However, the RES+ non-energy trade contribution to GDP stands out as marking the slack on trade deficit being allowed by the international aid that differentiates it from RES. We thus identify this slack as the main cause of the performance of RES+ compared to RES, considering how close the two scenarios are to the energy cost share and energy trade indicators. In more detail, the RES+ scenario assumes international financial transfers amounting to an average 1% of Nigerian GDP from 2022 to 2060, with fluctuations corresponding to the chronogram of incremental energy supply investment required to shift from CPS to RES. Over the modelled period the cumulative international financial aid required amounts to 859 billion 2021 USD. 4.8.4 Key Messages from the Macroeconomics Analysis The critical requirement for Nigeria’s economic (and by extension LT-LEDS) future, is a structural transformation that induces local production and consumption of otherwise imported non-energy goods, and positive trade shock that doubles her export potential by 2035 compared to current levels.71 In this context of successful economic diversification, the five explored scenarios have limited impacts on either potential growth or the employment level. At the 2060 end year of the explored horizon, the GDP gap from the highest (CPS) to the lowest (RES) performing scenario is of 4.7%. It corresponds to the loss of 0.12 points of average annual growth, from 5.53% (CPS) to 5.41% (RES) (see Table 4.1). 70 Computation released by the author using the KLEM-NGA model. 71 While halving her imports considerably. 93 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 4.1: Macroeconomics Indicators by Scenario (2018-2060) Real GDP Growth Rates Unemployment rate Emissions Scenario (annual growth rate 2018- (2060) (2060, MMT CO2-eq) 2060) Baseline 5.50% 5.00% 1,053 CPS 5.53% 5.30% 268 GES 5.52% 5.85% 92 RES 5.41% 8.16% 14 RES+ 5.52% 6.00% 14 Overall, the RES+ holds the most promise as it achieves a low emission rate that is the same as the RES scenario in 2060, compared with BAU, and real GDP growth and unemployment rates of 5.52% and 6.00%, respectively (significantly lower than RES of 5.41% and 8.16%, respectively). International financial support to the RES+ extra investment effort compared to the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), at 1.7% of RES+ GDP in 2060, is the major cause for this performance gap. However, over the 38-year period, the cumulated international financial aid to achieve the RES+ amounts to 859 billion 2021 USD. This is a rough half of the overall cost of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP), estimated at 1.9 trillion USD. Although that level of support may be in line with the annual global USD 100 billion support pledge of developed countries in the framework of the UNFCCC―all the more so as up to 39% of the close-to 1 trillion aids would be required by Nigeria after 2055 only―, strong uncertainty remains about its concretisation, as ongoing debates around the 100 billion pledges testify. In case RES+ failed for lack of international support, CPS and RES can be interpreted as delineating the development versus carbon mitigation trade-off faced by Nigeria in coming decades. At 36.7% emission decrease by 2060 from current (2018) levels, the environmental performance of CPS does not pass the Nigeria’s LTV-2050 of cutting emissions by 50% by 2050 (including 2060). Moreover, the RES increases that performance significantly, compared to CPS, by bringing emissions to 96.8% below current levels. However, this environmental gain comes at the economic cost of a 4.7% decrease of 2060 GDP, and at the social cost of a 2.9- point increase of unemployment. There is no doubt that a continuum of scenarios covers the environmental and economic ground in-between the CPS and RES, from which the Nigerian government could be inclined to choose. There is also the manifest possibility that options unexplored in the proposed scenarios could improve on the terms of the revealed trade-off. Further implementation of the coupled KLEM-LEAP framework will strive to identify such options. 94 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 95 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 5. Strategic Priorities and Policy Measures Under Adaptation 5. Strategic Priorities and Policy Measures under Adaptation Mitigating climate change alone will not be enough in the long-term strategies. As rightly expressed in Article 7 of the PA, Nigeria like other countries, will need to continue to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change, to build its resilience, reduce its vulnerability, and turn the problems of climate crisis into sustainable development solutions. Thus, in addition to mitigation, Nigeria will adapt to the unavoidable impacts by building resilience. This reduces the vulnerability to negative climate effects and can turn the problems of climate crisis into effective and sustainable development solutions for the sustainable growth of Nigeria as a country and its economy. Moreover, climate adaptation has many co-benefits, such as cleaner air, green job creation, and biodiversity improvement through the expansion of green space. Increased efforts in adaptation rather than mitigation over time may be necessary to meet the national target for climate-resilient sustainable development to be reached in 2060. 5.1 Climate Change Impacts in Nigeria and the Imperative for Adaptation Nigeria has experienced temperature increases of 0.03°C per decade between 1901–2016, with stronger increases occurring over the last 30 years of 0.19°C per decade. The trends of the country’s rainfall show a high degree of variability and the last six decades have witnessed an incremental decrease in seasonal rainfall across the country. Rising temperatures and l arge annual variation of rainfall, particularly in the northern parts of the country, has resulted in climatic shocks and hazards, such as floods and droughts (World Bank Group, 2021) 72. This variability in weather extremes, coupled with the expected global warming-induced sea level rise, are expected to have even more significant impacts on the country’s economy as already have been identified. Some of these expected climate change impacts are summarised in Table 5.1 for the relevant sectors in Nigeria. . 72 Climate Risk Profile: Nigeria (2021): The World Bank Group. 96 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 5. 1: Some Expected Climate Impacts and Associated Vulnerabilities Sector Expected climate change impacts • Reduced yields from increased temperatures, particularly for rice with an expected nutrient decline of up to 17% • Reduced livestock productivity, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, due to stressed grazing lands and direct impacts of heat on livestock health. Agriculture • Crop failure or reduced growing season due to unpredictable rain patterns, intense storms, and floods. • Increased damage to crops and livestock from pests and diseases. • Agricultural productivity in general could decline between 10 to 25% by 2080 • Possible reduced river flows (especially east and central Niger Basin), impacting water supply. • Increased flooding and associated impacts on water quality and water infrastructure Water • Substantially altered water flow in the Chad Basin Resources • Possible significant changes in surface runoffs and groundwater flows in shallow aquifers • Increased demand for water resources to irrigate crops (addressing higher temperatures and variable rainfall) • Salinisation of existing surface and groundwater resources in coastal areas • High risk of coastal inundation along parts of the country’s long coastline of over 800km. • A 0.2m rise in sea level would inundate 3,400 km of Nigerian coastland and a Coastal 1.0 m rise in sea level would cover 18,400 km and submerge the Niger Delta’s Marine entire oil and gas infrastructure, loss of human lives and property, the Environment destruction of socio-physical infrastructures, the loss of species and ecosystems, soil impoverishment. • Vulnerability to strong storm surge activity due to sea-level rise. • The forest ecology and the ecosystems that are already under significant human pressure would be additionally adversely affected by climate change. Forest • Persistent flooding and waterlogging due to accelerated sea level rise or Ecosystem extreme weather events could render forest regeneration more difficult. and • The savanna biome would be very vulnerable to any climate-change-related Grassland dramatic reduction in rainfall in the region to result in widespread degradation of habitats. • Increase in heat stress and heat stroke, particularly in elderly and other vulnerable populations. Human • Increased outbreaks of waterborne diseases like cholera Health • Loss of life, disruption to food production, and contamination of water supplies due to storm surges and flooding. • Reduced air quality; exacerbation of respiratory infections 97 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 • Increased energy demand • Reduced supply of biomass used for fuel. Energy • Evaporation and drying of water resources used for hydro-power, . • Damage to infrastructure and disruption to energy production from flooding and storm surges • Increase in frequency, spatial extent, and severity of droughts, while increase in Extreme the frequency of heavy rain occurrences is projected over most of the arid and Weather semi-arid parts of the country, resulting in more frequent floods. Events • Increasing the vulnerability of the Benue and Niger river systems to persistent flooding • The climate change-induced shrinking of Lake Chad has resulted in severe economic impacts on the fisheries, flood recessional agriculture, livestock rearing and other wetland industries in the northeastern part of Nigeria. Environment • Chronic food insecurity in the region and a proliferation of diseases have and Security induced significant migration from the region, and this has increased the pressure on natural resources in adjoining areas to the south; inciting social tensions, that are ball rolling into severe national insecurity of the region. The government of Nigeria recognises the importance of adequately exploring and strengthening adaptation-mitigation intrinsic linkages for low-carbon climate-resilient development and will take appropriate adaptation measures to complement its national mitigation measures elaborated in Section 3. The national focus will be on using NbS that can contribute to the country’s climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives by helping to strengthen climate resilience, while also contributing to climate change mitigation through functions such as carbon sequestration. For example, the restoration of a wetland will reduce flood risk and at the same time provide a carbon sink, thereby removing carbon from the atmosphere73. The NbS catalogue (Bank, 2021) developed by the World Bank Group could be used as guidance for relating appropriate solutions to the problems at hand. For this, an overview of vulnerable locations to climate hazards is necessary. 5.2 Modelling Nigeria’s Vulnerability and Adaptation Nigeria’s development is particularly vulnerable to climate-related stressors and the risks of climate change are increasing. According to the Global Climate Change Vulnerability Index, Nigeria is among the top ten countries and Lagos is among the top ten vulnerable cities in the world. In fact, the 2021 Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN)74 ranks Nigeria as the 53rd most-vulnerable country and the 6th least-ready country in the world to adapt to climate change. The 2021 Global Climate Risk Index, which indicates the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events and is published by the German watch Organization, further 73 ibid 74 The ND-GAIN Country Index summarises a country's vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience. It aims to help governments, businesses and communities better prioritise investments for a more efficient response to the immediate global challenges ahead. 98 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 classifies Nigeria as a region of moderate risk, but its weak adaptive capacity makes the country very vulnerable to the impact of climate change. The recent National Policy on Climate Change 75 clearly states that all aspects of Nigeria’s development are vulnerable to climate-related stressors. Its natural capital (including land, forests, landscapes, water, and fisheries) and physical capital (including cities, infrastructure, and other kinds of produced capital), as well as its human capital, which makes the economy highly susceptible to the impact of climate change. Extreme weather events, such as floods, storm surges, and heat waves can strain cities, roads, drainage systems, power plants, por ts, and other types of infrastructure. For example, rising temperatures and more frequent floods are likely to make people more vulnerable to water- and vector-borne diseases. Floods may also prevent children from reaching schools for their education. In general, the combination of frequent natural disasters, large population, poor infrastructure, limited preparedness, and low resilience to economic shocks, makes Nigeria especially vulnerable to climatic risks. Furthermore, the high incidence of poverty and the heavy reliance of poor people on agriculture and natural resources increase their vulnerability to climate change. Studies have shown that the degrees of vulnerability vary from one region of the country to another 76. These studies indicate that the northeast and northwest geopolitical zones, which constitute the arid and semi-arid areas of northern Nigeria and where most of the country’s livestock are raised, are the most vulnerable to climate change in Nigeria. This is attributed to the regions’ averagely low adaptive capacity, low sensitivity, high relative exposure, and vulnerability. Recent detailed climate vulnerability mapping of the arid and semi -arid northern Nigeria indicates that Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Jigawa, Kano and Yobe States have high vulnerability to climate change, while other States like Kebbi, Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara have medium vulnerability. Kaduna and Taraba States are areas of low vulnerability to climate change, relative to other parts of the arid and semi-arid northern Nigeria. In this, the impact of drought as climate risk is most significant. The climate risks of pluvial and coastal flooding are more significant in the Southern part of Nigeria. Heat stress-related issues mostly revolve around urban settlements, whereas the drought issue as stated above mainly affects the natural capital of Nigeria’s citizens. Thus, climate change adaptation is a development challenge that impacts the livelihoods of Nigerians. To this end, an improved understanding of both the spatial variabilities and short-term preparedness for its impact will be crucial to analysing the long-term climate change impact. Also, it will require putting in place adaptation strategies that consist of short-term actions that ensure preparedness for immediate threats, and long-term actions that make for climate-resilient development in the country. To generate an overview of priorities within the adaptation strategy, a distinction is necessary between the short-term adaptation measures that deal with the already exposed climate vulnerabilities, and a long-term strategy to monitor on, and gain insights into, the long-term vulnerabilities of Nigeria and apply best practices to coping with these uncertain threats in complex systems. Modelling adaptation strategies are especially important in long-term strategies to gain an understanding of the uncertainties in future developments. And these are essential to cope with these 75 Federal Ministry of Environment (2021): National Policy on Climate Change for Nigeria - 2021 – 2030. 76 Federal Government of Nigeria (2014): Second National Communication and World Bank 2018 Household Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Arid and Semi-Arid Northern Nigeria. 99 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 uncertainties. For example, the modelling outcomes give directions about the timelines and the consequences of adaptation (or mitigation) failures. Furthermore, it is important to continuously monitor and update the modelling and the strategies based on the latest insights. The uncertainties require an adaptive policy approach. A possible valuable approach put forward in this LT-LEDS which is explorative has been the implementation of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) 77 (Figure 5.1). This approach is a continuously recurring process where the effectiveness of taken measures are monitored and proportioned to set goals for the short term. This requires important information about the expected costs for climate adaptation and the uncertainties of these costs. It helps to quantify the benefits of climate mitigations investments. Thus, determining the cost implications as well as reduction in losses is a crucial aspect to the implementation of adaptive measures necessary to tackle the climate crisis. The results of this quick adaptation scenario assessment indicate several adaptation options that can be aligned with national development needs and adaptation projects and initiatives in various sectors that provide multiple benefits to the country’s pathway to net-zero, low-carbon climate-resilient development. Figure 5.1: Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) By applying the DAPP, Nigeria can take effective climate action to meet short-term goals. These short-term goals must be related to the appropriate climate tipping points for different regions in Nigeria. By setting short-term objectives for the different sectors, boundary conditions can be set to ensure these objectives are met. The climate hazards that affect the 77 https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_4, and https://www.deltares.nl/en/expertise/areas-of-expertise/sea- level-rise/dynamic-adaptive-policy-pathways. 100 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 successful protection of these boundary conditions should then be dealt with. This approach also helps to involve significant actors in different sectors or across multiple to get involved. For example, the urban coastal areas must focus on urban flooding rather than focusing on improving all suburbs to expected rainfall extremes for 2060, with high uncertainty. The DAPP approach, including the adaptation tipping point approach, shows what climate extremes Nigeria can cope with (See figures 5.2). Figure 5.2: DAPP Approach in Comparison to the Classical Approach 78 78 Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands (agwaguide. org) 101 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Figure 5.3 provides an idea of how long to wait with the decision about the implementation of an adaptation measure in the light of uncertainties around extreme weather event. In Figure 5.4, a perspective is provided on adaptation pathways that could be adapted. Figure 5.3: Understanding Tipping Points79 Figure 5.4: Mapping Adaptation Pathways80 79 Kwadijk, J.C.J. et al 2010 WIRES Climate Change DOI: 10.1002/wcc.64, Haasnoot et al 2012 Climate Change 80 Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways | Deltares 102 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 5.3 Macroeconomic Impacts of Adaptation Measures This section focuses on the expected role of adaptation measures in the macroeconomics of Nigeria, and the results presented and discussed here represent the outcome of an independent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) -based study that is still ongoing (Box 4). As already indicated in the earlier chapters of this document, the agriculture sector is susceptible to climate change, and the AFOLU sectors, by extension, have the highest contribution to GHG emissions in Nigeria. Therefore, the modelling emphasis in this section is on the macroeconomics impacts of key adaptation measures in the agriculture sector using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework. The CGE model is particularly suited for this type of analysis because apart from providing explicit modelling of the agriculture sector, it also accounts for the effects of climate shocks on agriculture and captures the consequences of these shocks on the overall economy through the different linkages among prices, income, supply and demand for goods and services in the economy. Box 4: Methodology- using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework. Many studies use a deterministic approach The ex-ante analysis of climate change and adaptation pathways to assess the effects of uses primarily a CGE model customised to the Nigerian economy climate change on using a 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The adaptation agriculture. However, measures included are those with dual benefits of reducing deterministic shocks emissions and increasing agricultural productivity simultaneously. ignore the uncertainty Considering the long-term outlook of the climate change shocks, a comparative static CGE model with long-term macroeconomics associated with climate closure rules is built for Nigeria. This standard CGE model is adapted change and its to the climate change issue by adopting a long-term closure rule to implications on yield. In consider the time dimension. Hence, labour, agricultural land, and this analysis, we use other capital are fully mobile between economic activities, a stochastic representing a long-term situation where the economy has time to approach to consider adjust. Current public expenditure and fiscal balance are fixed the uncertainties in the relative to GDP. Despite the many attractions of the comparative evolution of the climate static CGE model, a core limitation of this modelling approach is its and its effects on inability to generate time paths of the effects of successive climate agricultural yields. change-related agricultural crop productivity shocks on key macroeconomics variables. The climate change Nigeria is a small country in terms of its trading links with the rest of shock is translated into the world, i.e., the government does not influence international variation in the prices of both imported and exported products, which remain fixed productivity of in the model. The foreign trade current account balance is kept fixed agricultural activities relative to GDP, thereby effectively linking external financing to the and, consequently, is economy's performance. The volume of investment is also kept fixed propagated in the relative to GDP through household savings. Thus, the model is economy through the investment-driven in that total investment determines total saving, upstream and i.e., the sum of private, government, and foreign savings. This downstream linkages of closure rule allows to capture the full effect of the climate shock; in the agricultural sector other words, inter-generation welfare transfers are not allowed. Flexible prices equilibrate demands and supplies of domestically with the rest of the marketed domestic output, and the exchange rate is the numeraire economy. (the unit in which prices are measured) in the model. 103 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 A stepwise implementation of the methodology is as follows: • First, the simulation scenarios are built through an exhaustive review of existing literature to collect evidence on the impact of climate change and adaptation options on agricultural productivity. • Second, evidence on the productivity effects of climate shocks is fed into the macro- model to assess economic growth, employment, and income changes by type of production factors and category of household. On the macroeconomic effects of climate change adaptation strategies, four adaptation measures, which have been found in much peer-reviewed literature to reduce soil carbon emissions and increase agricultural productivity, are tested. These include: i. Soil and water conservation (reduced tillage, terracing, ridging, bunds, and mulching), ii. Use of improved varieties, iii. Irrigation, and iv. Responsible use of fertiliser. Empirical evidence on the impacts of these adaptation strategies on crop yields was obtained from existing research results (peer-reviewed), and the empirical results were then fit into the model for simulation purposes. The simulation results indicate that overall, the country’s GDP is expected to be lower in the climate change scenario by 4.92% when compared with the business-as-usual scenario (Figure 5.5) over the long-term period [for example, by 2050] due to damage to the economy by climate change. It should be noted however that this result would most likely be different if all climate impacts were to be captured in this analysis. The agriculture sector is expected to endure the most severe shock and the resulting output damage in the sector will contribute the largest share to the expected GDP decline, accounting for 64% of the total decline from the business-as-usual scenario. Agriculture Sector Contribution to GDP Decline = 64% compared to the business-as-usual scenario Expected long term GDP Decline due to Industry Sector Contribution to Climate Shocks = GDP Decline = 20% compared to 4.92% compared to the business-as-usual scenario business-as-usual scenario Services Sector Contribution to GDP Decline = 16% compared to the business-as-usual scenario Figure 5. 5: Sectoral Contribution to Climate Change-Induced GDP Decline in Nigeria 104 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 The industry sector, which has a stronger backward linkage with the agriculture sector when compared to the services sector, is expected to contribute 20% to the simulated GDP decline over the long-term period. This is followed closely by the services sector which is expected to contribute 16% to the simulated GDP decline. The adaptation measures will help answer the question of how much adjustment in behavior or investment in real terms will be required by the country to recover from or compensate for the expected GDP decline due to climate shocks. The results of the four adaptation measures are presented in Figure 5.6. Figure 5. 6: Adaptation Measures to Compensate for CC-Induced GDP Decline in Nigeria% of Cultivated Area) The country is expected to expand the use of Climate Smart Agricultural practices of reduced tillage, terracing, ridging, bunds, and mulching to cover an additional 58% of the cultivated area to recover from the damage to GDP due to climate shocks. These methods of farming are known to be very effective in soil and water conservation, increasing farm productivity, and reducing soil carbon emissions. A complementary adaptation measure is to increase the cultivation of improved varieties including drought-tolerant and early maturing crop varieties. The simulation results indicate that the country needs to cultivate these improved varieties on an additional 50% of the cultivated area to reverse the expected GDP loss due to climate change. Similarly, irrigated land should be expanded to cover an additional 38% of cultivated areas in the country to recover from the damage to GDP due to climate change. Finally, the use of organic fertiliser should be expanded to cover an additional 25% of the cultivated area so as to recover from the expected decline in GDP due to climate change. 5.3.1 Breakdown of Expected Macroeconomics Impacts of Adaptation Measures It will be instructive to also present results of the macroeconomics impacts of the adaptation measures on productivity in the agriculture sector as well as on value-added and employment in the agriculture, industry, and services sectors of the Nigerian economy. These results are presented in Figure 5.7 (All variations indicated are changes from the business-as-usual scenario). 105 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Percentage growth compared to BAU Figure 5.7: Breakdown of Expected Impacts of Adaptation Measure - Soil and Water Conservation A decomposition of the macroeconomics impacts of adaptation measures to improve Soil and Water Conservation using Climate Smart Agricultural practices of reduced tillage, terracing, ridging, bunds, and mulching indicates that when compared to the business-as-usual scenario, agricultural productivity will be enhanced by 4.9% over the long-term simulation period. Value-added in the agriculture sector will also increase by 3.19% and employment in agriculture will increase marginally by 0.49%. Industry sector employment will also grow by 0.36% and the related value-added will see an increase of 0.03% over the period. In all, the services sector will not benefit much from these adaptation measures on Soil and Water Conservation. Service employment is expected to decline by 0.13% and value-added services will also decrease by 0.47%. The expected poor performance of the services sector in response to adaptation measures on Soil and Water Conservation may be indicative of the very weak linkages between the agriculture and services sectors in Nigeria. Simulation results of adaptation measures to expand the use of improved varieties in the country are also expected to be like those of soil and water conservation. As shown in Figure 5.8, when compared to the business-as-usual scenario, agriculture productivity will be enhanced by 3.59% and agricultural employment will also increase by 0.57% if the use of improved varieties is expanded to cover an additional 50% of cultivated areas. This will be driven by an increase in agricultural value-added of 1.97%. A decline of 0.27% and 0.49% is expected in the services sector employment and value-added respectively following an expansion in the use of improved varieties, suggesting that some labor factor services will be migrating to the agriculture sector where productivity is increasing. 106 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Percentage growth compared to BAU Figure 5.8: Breakdown of Expected Impacts of Adaptation Measure - Improved Varieties The breakdown of the simulation results on the macroeconomics impacts of adaptation measures on the expansion of irrigated land indicates that when compared to the business- as-usual scenario, agricultural productivity is expected to grow by 4.92% in the country over the long-term period as shown in Figure 5.9. At the same time, agricultural value-added will grow by 2.99%. Industry sector employment and agriculture sector employment will also increase by 0.41% and 0.42% respectively. However, services sector employment is expected to decline by 0.17% due to an expansion of irrigation coverage of the cultivated land area in the country. Percentage growth compared to BAU Figure 5.9: Breakdown of Expected Impacts of Adaptation Measure – Irrigation When compared to the business-as-usual scenario, the use of organic fertiliser, which is climate-friendly, will also enhance agricultural productivity in the country by 2.77% and agricultural value-added by 1.28 as reported in Figure 5.10. This adaptation measure will also increase agriculture sector employment by 0.42% and industry sector employment will in the same vein increase by 0.41%. 107 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Percentage growth compared to BAU Figure 5.10: Breakdown of Expected Impacts of Adaptation Measure - Organic Fertiliser In all, the simulation results clearly suggest that the selected adaption measures for this report are consistent with the goal of recovering the Nigerian economy from a climate- induced GDP loss over the long-term period. The agriculture sector will no doubt play a central role in climate adaptation efforts. The roles of the agriculture and industry sectors will be mutually reinforced in this respect, and this is as a result of the strong linkages between these two sectors of the economy. 5.4 Adaptation Finance Responding effectively to the development challenge of climate change in Nigeria regarding mitigation and adaptation measures will require a robust financial management plan. In this regard, climate finance remains central to achieving climate-compatible development. The updated 2021 NDC is estimated at USD177billion for a 47% emissions reduction by 203081 will be required to implement its aligned projects across the highest emitting sectors in terms of the magnitude of mitigation and adaptation measures, as well as the upfront capital cost for implementation across all sectors, including waste and water. This may even be higher when comprehensive investment plans for all sectors of the country's development are developed. For the struggling Nigerian economy, this poses a severe challenge to the vision of net-zero emission and climate-resilient economy by 2060. Thus, the Federal Government is looking at various options to finance her climate response activities at all levels of governance in the country. To this end, some of the strategic measures will include: i. Strengthen the capacity of the Secretariat of the National Council on Climate Change to develop bankable projects that can enable Nigeria to access UNFCCC Financial Mechanisms and other development partners' climate funds. ii. Make the National Climate Change Fund established under the Nigeria Climate Change Act 2021 operational and ensure its effective implementation. Incentivise and actively engage the private sector to invest in climate actions. 81 Federal Ministry of Environment – Department of Climate Change (2021): 2050 Long-Term Vision (LTV-250) – submitted to the UNFCCC. 108 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 5.5 Loss and Damage The actual costs of economic losses and damages caused by the impacts of extreme climate events on the Nigerian economy remain a challenge as it is very difficult to isolate the climate component of total losses due to extreme weather events. Nevertheless, the losses and damages are enormous. To gain more insights into the potential effects of climate hazards as stand-alone risks, model representations of Nigeria can help gain understanding, which improves the substantiation of the decision to be made. Based on actual extreme occurrences, it has been reported in what is considered Nigeria's worst extreme weather event-induced floods in decades, over 600 persons lost their lives in 2022 and up to 33 states in the country were affected. In addition, the devastation affected up to 2.5 million persons and led to the destruction of over 300,000 hectares of farmlands and transport infrastructure. Overall, Nigeria lost an estimated $6.681 billion as direct damages recorded between June and November 202282. In implementing the LT-LEDS, Nigeria will strategise to benefit maximally from the new global loss and damage funding for vulnerable countries that, hopefully, would be finalised at the UNFCCC 28th Conference of Parties (COP 28) in UAE. This means Nigeria will also establish policy guidelines that include climate-adaptive reconstruction to ensure the exact locations will not be affected by the same climate hazards. 5.6 Adaptation Strategies 5.6.1 Adaptation Initiatives and Priority Measures In addition to formulating some adaptation-specific plans such as the National Strategy and Plan of Action for Climate Change in Nigeria (NASPA-CCN, 2011), Nigeria's National Adaptation Framework (2020), the updated NDC (2021), as well as the National Climate Change Policy (2020) and the National Climate Change Programme (2020), Nigeria is undertaking a variety of adaptation actions across sectors and scales at national and subnational levels. A brief account of Nigeria's current adaptation actions and goals is presented in the country's updated NDC and its National Communication to the UNFCCC. Some of the existing vital initiatives and projects in the last decade include the following 83: The Building Nigeria's Response to Climate Change (BNRCC) project, which was a five-year project (2007-2012), was funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and implemented by the Federal Ministry of Environment. BNRCC researched climate vulnerability, promoted gender-responsive climate response, raised awareness and implemented community-based adaptation pilot projects. A significant output of BNRCC implementation is the development of the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN), which remains the only National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for Nigeria until the ongoing implementation of the BAP Process that should come up with a more elaborate national adaptation programme for the country. 82 World Bank Global Rapid Post Disaster Assessment Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report - 2022 Flood Situation in Nigeria. 83 Taken mostly from Butu, H., M., Okeke, C., U., and Okereke, C., (2022). Climate Change Adaptation in Nigeria: Strategies, Initiatives, and Practices. Working Paper No. 3. APRI: Berlin, Germany and Nest and Woodley, E. (2012). Learning from Experience - Community-based Adaptation to Climate Change in Nigeria. (Building Nigeria's Response to Climate Change project). Ibadan, Nigeria: Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST) 109 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 i. Community-based Adaptation pilot projects of the BNRCC project were implemented to understand the impacts of climate change in all ecozones and to test adaptation strategies to address these challenges. The pilot projects were executed in different ecological zones of Nigeria. They ranged from alternative livelihood options to increasing water supply, trials of improved varieties of crops, testing fuel-efficient wood stoves, providing tools for weather forecasting and planting trees for dune stabilisation. The implementation of the pilot projects led to the development and adoption of improved seed varieties to improve food security, provision of fuel-efficient wood stoves, improved access to water sources, rehabilitation of ecosystems by planting trees and establishment of alternative sustainable livelihoods for poverty reduction and weaning communities off forest products ii. The World Bank assisted Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project (NEWMAP), which the Federal Ministry of Environment implemented to tackle the menace of gully erosion in south-east Nigeria and other forms of land degradation in northern Nigeria through an integrated watershed management and climate-resilient approach. iii. The Great Green Wall Sahara initiative, which the National Agency currently implements for the Federal Ministry of Environment to combat climate change, fight desertification and address food insecurity, migration, and conflict in the arid areas of northern Nigeria, is to increase the amount of arable land and promote climate-resilient development in the Sahel. iv. The Africa Development Bank's (AfDB) newly launched USD25 billion Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP) in collaboration with the Global Centre on Adaptation (GCA). The AAAP is expected to unlock financing from African governments, investors, foundations, resilience bonds and debt for climate adaptation swaps. v. Adapting to Climate Change in the Lake Chad Basin is a Project (2013 – 2018) funded by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). It is focused on providing adaptation solutions and best practices to 1,100 villages in the region and in bordering countries for improved food security in the area. vi. The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have also supported the development of knowledge products, country reports, climate risk resources and research across Nigeria. vii. Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes (ACReSAL), which the World Bank supports and currently implemented by the Federal Ministry of Environment to replicate and upscale NEWMAP's approach and successes to the 19 States in northern Nigeria, is targeted at addressing the challenges of large-scale watershed degradation, improving community climate resilience, strengthening institutional capacity and enabling institutional and policy foundation for multisectoral integrated landscape management and climate resilience, among others. viii. The Lagos State Climate Change Action is a subnational initiative whose goals align with the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, particularly the ambition to keep the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C. It will not only help to mitigate climate change by reducing emissions, but it will also improve Lagos's population, economy, and 110 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 infrastructure's resilience to its effects. It further seeks to maximise the co-benefits of climate actions in support of the State's vision to create a cleaner, greener, healthier, stable, and more prosperous Lagos in the face of a changing climate. Alongside these initiatives are many nationally accepted adaptation measures for various sectors of national development that have been variously identified in the updated NDC, Third National Communication, NASPA-CCN and other federal policies and plans. A sample list of key adaptation measures for Nigeria for various sectors is presented in Table 5.2. Nigeria's updated NDC emphasised the potential role of NbS) as effective adaptation measures for the country. Nature-based solutions "are actions that protect biodiversity, sustainably manage and/or restore ecosystems, while simultaneously contributing to the achievement of multiple sustainable development goals, including national goals for climate, food security, water security, disaster risk reduction and livelihoods" 84. Thus, they can help strengthen climate resilience while contributing to climate change mitigation through functions such as sequestering carbon. As they are usually affordable and provide additional co-benefits, such as supporting biodiversity and fostering mitigation-adaptation linkages, as well as reducing exposure and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, the importance of designing and implementing nature-based solutions in building resilience and adaptation in priority sectors will be emphasised in the implementation of this LT-LEDS. Table 5. 2: Key Adaptation Measures in Nigeria Sector Adaptation Measures • Provision of accurate and timely weather forecasting • Adoption of drought-tolerant and early maturing crop varieties • Diversifying livelihoods to improve income. • Increasing and upgrading crop storage facilities • Control of pests, insects, and birds • Growing more cover crops like potatoes and melons to protect the soil from erosion. Agriculture • Intensive livestock keeping • Enhancing agricultural extension services • Irrigation • Flood control • Drainage • Weather insurance • Improving transportation between rural areas and urban centres 84 NDC update- Mitigation scenario: Modelling assumptions and results ED14074| Issue Number1| Date 29/03/2021 111 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 5. 2: Key Adaptation Measures in Nigeria Sector Adaptation Measures • Integrated water resource management at the watershed level • Improved groundwater exploitation • Extend and improve water supply and water management infrastructure. • Water efficiency and improved water demand management • Gender–responsive, socially inclusive. and resilient water and Water sanitation infrastructure. Resources • Small–scale earth dams for multi-purpose use • Inter- and intra-basin water transfer • Strengthened river basin governance and scaled-up regional cooperation. • Increased the network density of hydrometric network for early warning forecasting. Strengthened capacity for smart water management • Hard protection, or “gray infrastructure” including dikes and static seawalls, groins and artificial headlands, detached breakwaters, and artificial reefs. • Creation of artificial land above the sea, such as Eko Atlantic in Lagos State, to create new buildable areas. • Soft protection, including dune rehabilitation and sand/beach Coastal nourishment, including beach nourishment that projected Marine accommodation, which takes projected SLR into account. Environment • Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), which includes the restoration of salt marshes, mangroves, oyster beds, or coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems to mitigate marine flooding and coastal erosion. • Managed retreat, which involves rethinking living on the coast by accepting certain coastal infrastructure, neighborhoods, or even cities will need to relocate entirely. • Strengthened forest management and increase in tree cover through gender-responsive socially and environmentally responsible reforestation and restoration initiatives. Forest • Community-based forest resources management Ecosystem • Functional forest inventory system and • Afforesting with suitable indigenous and exotic species Grassland • Strengthened partnerships among CSOs, communities, and the private sector to restore community and private natural forests, plantations, and nurseries. 112 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 5. 2: Key Adaptation Measures in Nigeria Sector Adaptation Measures • Improved management of forest reserves and enforcement of low- impact logging practices • Alternative livelihoods to reduce unsustainable resource use and loss of biodiversity. • Forests resources accounting • Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into forest management. • Reduced ecosystem vulnerability and ecosystems’ exposure to extreme events. • Enhanced financing for the implementation of the REDD+ Strategy and the Great Green Wall Initiative • Improved understanding of the health impacts of climate change in Nigeria • Strengthened disease prevention and treatment systems. • Wastewater and solid waste management facilities • Wide adoption of practices and technologies that reduce exposure and health impacts from extreme heat. Human • Early warning and health surveillance programmes. Health • Strengthened surveillance programmes for monitoring human health under a changing climate. • Climate-resilient health infrastructure. • Community hygiene and general cleanliness in all sectors • Improved primary healthcare delivery system to effectively respond to climate-induced diseases and pandemics • Strengthened infrastructure against storm events or wind. • Protection of infrastructure against flooding with dykes or berms or construction of new infrastructure in areas vulnerable to flooding, salinity, or storm events • Improved sustainability of charcoal production through enforcement of regulations against illegal charcoal production activities and improved charcoal production technologies Energy • Diversification of household and community energy generation sources to reduce reliance on biomass as an energy source and thus reduce pressure on natural systems (e. g. solar energy or small-scale hydro-power, generation) • Increase in the level of rural electrification in line with the Government’s objective of 75% electrification rate by 2020 and full electrification by 2040 to reduce reliance on biomass as an energy 113 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 5. 2: Key Adaptation Measures in Nigeria Sector Adaptation Measures source and increase reliance on use of sustainable, climate-proofed large scale generation sources where possible. • Climate proofing of existing and future hydro-power, infrastructure through the implementation of structural and/or non-structural measures that may include (a) construction or augmentation of reservoirs, (b) modifications to spillway capacities, (c) installation of controllable gates on spillways, (d) modifications to the number and type of turbines, (e) modification of canals or tunnels, (f) development of hydrological forecasting techniques and adaptative management operating rules, and (g) development of basin wide management strategies that take into account the full range of downstream environmental and human water uses under changing climate Promote decentralised energy systems to increase resilience, with an emphasis on mini-grids and stand-alone systems • Strengthening existing transportation and communications infrastructure for climate-resilience • Provision of diverse transportation options, such as pedestrian, bicycle, and transit routes • Mainstream adaptation into transport planning, decision-making and Transport implementation • Improved public and private-sector investment in climate-proofed and climate-resilient transport infrastructure • Diversification of transport modes with appropriate adaptive capacities • Promoting a value-chain-based approach for climate-resilient industry. • Harnessing the potential of clean technologies for climate-resilient industrial development. • Fostering innovation and strengthening entrepreneurship to develop new capacity for wealth creation whilst safeguarding the environment and promoting sustainable climate-resilient industrial Industry development. • Fostering the diffusion of financial tools aiming to reward resilient enterprises or enterprises belonging to resilient industrial clusters. • Promoting adaptation actions in the industry sector, based on an ecosystem approach. • Developing green infrastructure and payments for ecosystem services (PES) 114 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 5. 2: Key Adaptation Measures in Nigeria Sector Adaptation Measures • Strengthening synergies among adaptation measures and other environmental issues, such as floods and droughts, water scarcity, biodiversity conservation, air quality and resource efficiency • Increasing the awareness of industrial and financial operators about the effects (threats and opportunities) of climate change on industrial production • Defining opportunities for new green products and new green jobs related to the adoption of climate adaptation measures • Include increased protective margins in the construction and placement of transportation infrastructure (i.e., higher standards and specifications for greener technology) • Undertake risk assessment and risk reduction measures to increase the resilience of the transportation and communication sectors. • Strengthening existing transportation and communications infrastructure for climate-resilience Transport • Provision of diverse transportation options, such as pedestrian, bicycle, and transit routes • Mainstreaming adaptation into transport planning, decision-making and implementation • Improved public and private-sector investment in climate-proofed and climate-resilient transport infrastructure • Diversification of transport modes with appropriate adaptive capacities • Assess the impacts of climate change and raise awareness among citizens. • Expropriation and greening of abandoned lots in major cities • Create green and blue infrastructure to reduce urban heat islands. • Green and cultural urban corridors Human • Create infrastructure and pilot projects to reduce the risk of flooding. Settlements • Implement a programme to strengthen and extend the support network for vulnerable communities. • City centre development projects • Social housing programmes • Crisis preparedness and management plans • Create awareness among national and sub-national disaster and Vulnerable emergency management institutions about climate change impacts Groups and how these impacts affect vulnerable groups. 115 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 5. 2: Key Adaptation Measures in Nigeria Sector Adaptation Measures • Strengthening capacity of relevant disaster and emergency management agencies on the use of gender awareness tools to enhance implementation capacities. • Adapt government programmes and plans at national and sub- national levels to better address the impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups. • Adapt public service facilities, including school buildings, to withstand storms and excess heat. • Intensify the immunisation of children and youth to provide protection against diseases that are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. • Retrain health workers to appreciate emerging climate change challenges within the context of immunisation delivery and other comprehensive healthcare delivery. • Encourage faith-based and civil society organisations, as well as the private sector to provide social welfare programmes and other support to address the climate-change- induced needs of vulnerable groups • Greater collaboration with policymakers towards an open-source database of standardised, publicly available data to raise awareness of the need for climate adaptation. • Develop better climate risk models which can help form a more Extreme accurate picture of future weather patterns as well as the risks they Weather might pose to communities. Events • More accurate risk data and modelling to help inform policymakers on hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities. • Weather insurance indexing and innovation, particularly digitalisation, to increase the impact of risk finance and insurance on resilience • Strengthen the capacity to anticipate disasters and impacts on internal migration and security. • Strengthen the capacity to respond through information and Environment awareness, training, equipment, plans and scenarios and and Security communication. • Strengthen individual and community-based emergency preparedness and response capacity in climate change high-risk areas. 116 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Table 5. 2: Key Adaptation Measures in Nigeria Sector Adaptation Measures • Strengthening rural infrastructure and the availability of jobs to discourage out- migration. • Integrate climate change into the national and regional security strategies. • Strengthening the capacities of security agencies and institutions to mainstream gender-based perspectives and climate risk considerations in security planning and operations. • Strengthen the capacity at national and sub-national levels to anticipate and respond to disasters and impacts on internal migration and security. • Develop robust projections in terms of climate change impacts for the formulation of appropriate policies towards reducing vulnerability. • Promote open and constructive dialogue for coordinated multilateral mechanisms to address climate risks and the development of effective policy responses and strategies on climate change-related security issues. • Institutionalise inclusive, participatory decision-making processes to reflect the voices of women, girls, and youth as ecosystem managers under increasing insecurity. • Develop and implement strategies that allow for the better management of climate variability and lessen its impact on livelihoods and agricultural production to enhance security. • Strengthen rural infrastructure and promote sustainable rural livelihoods. • Minimise the existence of ungoverned spaces. • Integrate migration and human displacement issues in national climate change planning 5.7 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures Synergy Both mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial in managing Nigeria’s climate crisis in a holistic and coordinated manner. The recognition by Nigeria of the potential interlinkages between the climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation activities, and the developmental outcomes, will help in identifying climate-resilient development pathways. Synergies in climate action, as defined in the fourth IPCC Assessment Report (Klein et al., 2007), means “interaction of adaptation and mitigation such that their combined effect is greater than the sum of their effects if implemented separately” (Nordic Working Group for 117 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Global Climate Negotiations, 2017). Although the Nigerian LT-LEDS programme considers mostly the mitigation measures needed for net-zero sustainable economic growth, some of the results obtained indicate that both mitigation and adaptation measures can be adopted pari passu to greater effect. This LT-LEDS emphasises that the synergies between adaptation and mitigation actions, in sectors related to terrestrial and wetland ecosystems, food security and production, and energy, with their adaptation and resilience efforts must be undertaken jointly with mitigation efforts. This section considers the mitigation and adaptation synergies in the three most significant sectors with the highest contributions towards national emissions, namely; energy, AFOLU, and transport. Energy: The single most undesirable source of emission in the energy sector in Nigeria is gas flaring, emanating from oil and gas operations, which account for about 30% of the energy sector emissions in the BAU scenario. Mitigation measures here would realistically be implemented in phases such as utilising gas to produce LPG, as well as raw materials for the petrochemical industries. This could be pursued to materialisation by 2030. Combining both measures could prove highly beneficial towards achieving net-zero emissions in the energy sector. A major vulnerability would be higher ambient temperatures for thermal power plants, which constitute the bulk of power plants in Nigeria. Since warmer ambient temperatures reduce the efficiency of thermal conversion, it is recommended that process water from flue gases can be re-used as an adaptation measure, and this can cover 25–37% of cooling needs, according to International Atomic Energy Agency (2019). Other adaptation measures in the energy sector will involve increased renewable energy mix in the long term. AFOLU: The AFOLU sector accounts for the second highest contribution towards overall emissions in Nigeria both in the NDC and the LT-LEDS projections. A major highlight under the AFOLU sector is deforestation, which has increased tremendously from 1990 till date. In total, Nigeria has lost 35.7% of its forest cover or about 6,145,000 hectares, between 1990 and 2005. Under the LT-LEDS, reforestation has been projected as a preferred mitigation option rather than enhanced forest management, as recommended by the NDC. Experience from other countries shows clearly that sustained action over many years is required to implement a 118 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 successful reforestation or forest management programme with managed natural regeneration which is likely to be the most cost-effective way to restore tree cover in many areas, especially arid and semi-arid. Although reforestation while serving as a mitigation strategy alongside climate-smart agriculture practices to reduce emissions also increases resilience and adaptation to climate change. Thus, the practice of planting trees such as Jatropha curcas and Azadirachta indica, and other resistant trees and crops represents a possible adaptation response to climate change. Transport: With 68.83% of the total emissions, the transport sector is the third largest contributor to emissions under the BAU scenario. However, because of the number of mitigation strategies, especially the introduction of electric vehicles etc, the sectoral emissions were r educed significantly under the other scenarios. Well-proven adaptation measures in the transport sector could be better aerodynamics, cutting vehicle weight, and building engines with high standards, which can reduce energy consumption by up to 50%. Low-carbon transport systems such as rapid bus systems (BRT as already practised in Lagos and planned for Kaduna) can reduce pollution in urban areas if adopted by more states. Also, resilient roads, and strong resilient transport infrastructure are major adaptations in the transport sector if built. 5.8 Cross-Cutting Sectors’ Measures and Instruments These include measures for Communication and Information Communication and Technology (ICT), carbon tax, removing inefficient subsidies, gas transformation, carbon budget, carbon market, blue economy, health, youth and people with disabilities, gender, etc. The LT-LEDS will play a critical role in aligning climate goals and targets with national and sub- national sustainable development objectives and the international objectives of addressing the global challenge of climate change. Its implementation will also be considered within the imperative of balancing between emission reduction and economic development, as well as other sustainable development indicators and supporting issues such as just transition, fairness and equity, healthy living, climate resilience, gender responsiveness, inclusivity, intergeneration, and vulnerable groups, etc. 5.8.1 Communication and Information Communication and Technology (ICT) The two important strategic measures with which ICT can be used to mitigate climate change and will be adopted by the Government of Nigeria are: • Building Information Modelling, software can be used to design “smart buildings” that reduce material and energy consumption during construction. Various sensor technologies can control environmental and energy variables during the life of the buildings and therefore reduce GHG emissions associated with energy production. • Developing smart grids to allow greater use of renewable energy generating technologies and using onsite renewable power generation equipment such as fuel 119 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 cells, solar stations, wind generators and micro hydro installations, and high-efficiency energy storage solutions is now in development. This will create more control over energy generation and transmission and reduce energy losses (ESCAP/APCICT 2014) 85. 5.8.2 Carbon Credit and Trading The Carbon Credit and Trading are based on a market-based mechanism to control greenhouse gas emissions which is becoming increasingly popular. Different countries are looking at how to engage in carbon markets to meet their net-zero strategically. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides information on establishing international carbon markets where countries can trade carbon credits. Beyond international climate markets under Article 6, to help achieve the global goal of carbon-neutral growth as part of the aviation sector's contribution, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established the carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation (CORSIA). The carbon market is either voluntary or compliance (mandatory). 86 The two types of carbon credits, which are market-based mechanisms, include voluntary emissions reduction (VER) - when a carbon offset is exchanged voluntarily for credits- and certified emissions reduction (CER). VER - when a third party helps in regulating it. Nigeria will explore the best alternatives for the carbon market in its quest to attain Net-Zero emissions by 2060. In its National Climate Change Act of 2021, Nigeria recognises the need to set a national carbon budget that will make the country contribute significantly to the global goal of keeping average increases in temperature within 2°C and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to l.5°C above pre-industrial levels and in line with its NDCs, In this regards, appropriate incentives will be given to companies to offset their carbon emissions with credits from other companies that have reduced their emissions. This helps businesses to reduce their carbon footprint and makes them more environmentally friendly. Companies can sell these credits to other companies who want to offset their carbon footprint, or they can buy credits from other companies who have already done so. Under Paris Agreement, Nigeria will make use of the carbon credit and carbon trading opportunities to boost the implementation of sectoral targets in her NDC and the National Climate Change Action Plan that will be developed by the National Council on Climate Change to focus on formulating and implementing long-term, low-emission sectoral measures and strategies to achieve sustainable, long-term, low-carbon economic growth. Strategic measures will include: i. Ensuring the identification and analysis of priority sectors, and eligibility criteria, setting a price on carbon. ii. Understanding existing carbon offset projects to achieve the long-term net-zero emissions goal. iii. Developing and implementing programmes to provide a vast supply base to meet the demand for a compliance carbon market. iv. Effectively using of cooperative approaches under Article 6, paragraph 2. 85 ESCAP/APCICT 2014, 2014 | APCICT/ESCAP (unapcict.org) 86 See definition in the Acronyms and definition section. 120 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 v. Using the market mechanism under Paris Agreement in Article 6, paragraph 4; and non-market approaches in Article 6, paragraph 8. vi. Imploring qualitative limits on the use of voluntary cooperation, including environmental integrity, transparency, and avoidance of double counting of emission reductions. 5.8.3 Blue Economy There is global recognition and the imperative of integrating the ocean economy (blue economy) into Nigeria’s response to climate change. Blue economy plays a vital role in the country’s overall economy considering that all sectors of the economy solidly depend on import and export through maritime transportation. Expectedly, the African Union (AU) adopted the blue economy in its Africa Agenda 2063 as a mechanism to accelerate economic growth on the continent. Also, Nigeria has created a full fledge ministry of marine and blue economy, Hence the LT-LEDS notes the needs for this sector to be empowered or capitalised to join the race in reducing emissions while driving growth and profitability of the national economy. Strategies on cutting down emissions across the various sub-sectors (fishery and aquaculture, coastal tourism, renewable energy, ship, and boat building, etc) would incl ude investing in solutions and services that would go beyond best efforts. This action includes ensuring the country's adoption of mitigation techniques and evolving technologies to support the optimal realisation of jurisdictional maritime zone entitlements. This could be through maximum use of offshore renewable energy, decarbonized maritime transport, port infrastructure, sequestration of carbon by the coastal and marine ecosystem, sustainable fishing and market-based measures to achieve increased opportunities for technological solutions, creating upward momentum across the blue economy value chain. These are likely to ensure better and improved GDP and employment opportunities, meeting the food needs of the growing population and sustainable and regenerative tourism. These actions that would include activities in the various sub-sectors of the blue economy are anticipated to include verifiable commitments backed by continuous progress monitoring toward the net-zero emission goal envisioned in the LT-LEDS. 5.8.4 Culture Culture is an important component of Nigeria’s society and is preserved and transmitted to future generations through mostly traditional rights, oral folklore, and music despite the recent influence of external cultures. By incorporating cultural ideas and indigenous technology into the LT-LEDS, communities can be quickly drawn into the climate change control process. Encouraging the protection of heritage sites and intangible heritage practices also protects the environment and conserves biodiversity. The attendant impact is overall benefits for the environment and climate. Local culture is a fundamental part of the lives of the population and incorporating part of the people’s culture will give them a sense of belonging thereby committing themselves to the climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. This also helps to bring into perspective the fact that the indigenous peoples and marginalized populations are particularly exposed and vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their resource-based livelihoods and the location of their homelands in marginal environments. In Nigeria, the application of the 121 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Climate Vulnerability Index for Sukur demonstrated the value of the process for cultural properties in identifying key points of vulnerability to climate change as well as opportunities to manage impacts to both the landscape and the associated community.87 The implementation of the LT-LEDS will ensure that local and indigenous communities participate effectively in climate change decision-making so that adaptation strategies contribute to the well-being of the communities, including marginalized groups, and avoid strengthening existing inequalities. The knowledge possessed by indigenous peoples can contribute to climate change assessment and adaptation by offering observations and interpretations at a much finer spatial scale with considerable temporal depth and by highlighting elements that may not be considered by climate scientists. Culture-induced knowledge, attitude, and perception as well as education have been shown to be a major factor in determining the rate at which Nigerian households adopt the use of modern cooking technologies such as improved stoves and LPGs88. 5.8.5 Health Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. The World Health Organization (WHO) has indicated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress. This could result in about USD 2- 4 billion in direct damage costs to health89 . Evidence abounds that climate change impacts in Nigeria arise from well-known and articulated climate change-related causes such as increases in temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme weather events and, especially, increased health risks. They generate health risks such as cerebra-spinal meningitis, a cardiovascular respiratory disorder of the elderly, skin cancer, malaria, high blood pressure and morbidity were identified as the direct consequences of climate change 90. Thus, reducing emissions of greenhouse gases through better transport, food and energy-use choices can result in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution91. Strategic measures that governments will undertake in the implementation of the LT-LEDS to not only reduce emissions in health-related activities but also build the resilience of the health sector in the process of pursuing net-zero emission by 2060 in line with the aspiration of LT- LEDS, include: i. Harness the health benefits of climate action by prioritizing those climate interventions with the largest health-, social- and economic, as well as energy gains, 87 Jon Day*, Scott Heron, Ishanlosen Odiaua, Jane Downes, Eugene Itua, Aliyu Lass Abdu, Brenda Ekwurzel, Anthony Sham, William Megarry (2020); An application of the Climate Vulnerability Index for the Sukur Cultural Landscape, https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/an- application-of-the-climate-vulnerability-index-for-the-sukur-c. 88 Okereke, C., Onyeneke, R. U., Ijeoma, S., Fadero, T., Ahanotu, K., & Anieze, E. E. (2023). Attitude, knowledge, and perception of choice of cooking fuels: Evidence from two large communities in South-east Nigeria. Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy, 42(1), e13983. 89 Climate Change and Health, 2023 – retrieved form https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health 90 retrieved from DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86912 91 Climate Change and Health, 2023 – retrieved form https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health 122 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 ii. Develop environmentally sustainable healthcare facilities across sectors to reduce morbidity rate. 5.8.6 Women, Youths and Vulnerable group Considering the significant roles of climate-sensitive populations such as youth, and persons with disability in mitigating and adapting to climate change, their effective inclusion is central to the successful development and delivery of Nigeria’s LT-LEDS. This entails full and equal participation of young people and other marginalized segments. Key mitigating strategies that Nigeria will adopt for the inclusion and mainstreaming of these vulnerable groups into low-carbon development path in the implementation of the LT-LEDS include: i. Changing the current labour market situation which leaves behind people with disabilities by offering better training and deliberately integrating them into various roles along the low-emission value chain. ii. Aligning Low-carbon offsetting and mitigation strategies with Nigerian Disability Laws at National and State levels. iii. Ensuring deliberate inclusion and prioritization of these vulnerable groups while funding low emission initiatives from the programme design, monitoring, and reporting, where possible providing incentives. 5.8.7 Gender While gender inequalities exacerbate the effect of climate change, it also makes existing inequalities worse and generally slows progress toward gender equality. Nigeria's agricultural sector is vital due to its contribution to the national economy and the employment opportunities it generates. Women constitute a substantial part of the agricultural labour force (75%) in a sector characterised mainly by smallholder farmers who mostly cultivate rain- fed farms. Agricultural growth relies on environmental resources such as land, forest and water. Climate change is also expected to result in long-term water and other resource shortages, land degradation, drought and desertification, and disease and pest outbreaks. These will lead to changes in land use and the transition of forests to grasslands, leading to biodiversity loss. The energy challenge in Nigeria overlaps with issues such as gender, which includes, for instance, the need to use firewood or charcoal for cooking in the absence of better and more healthy alternatives. Women are primarily responsible for most domestic tasks and are worst affected by the health impacts of smoke inhalation with firewood or charcoal for cooking. Nigeria generates over 32 million tonnes of solid waste annually. Solid waste is one of Nigeria's largest sectors causing pollution, but also a significant contributor to climate change. Both women and men are involved in generating the production of agricultural and domestic waste and, as a result, contributes directly to greenhouse emission through the generation of methane from anaerobic decay of waste and the emission of nitrous oxide from solid waste combustion facilities. 123 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 According to reports from UN-Water and the Interagency Network on Women and Gender Equality (2015), women in the majority of households in Nigeria are tasked with sourcing water and maintaining hygiene in the house and its environs. Furthermore, the report also indicated the gender divide in decisions bordering on water management and sanitation projects in rural areas. Men are more likely to access relevant training to maintain and repair water systems than women. Climate change is further exacerbating the water and sanitation challenges experienced in Nigeria, and this is placing more of a burden on women as they go farther distances to access. Mainstreaming gender sensitivity into energy and climate-related policies and projects requires a paradigm shift that recognises women's contributions to 44 climate change responses and promotes the development of new opportunities for women in the energy sector. To accomplish this goal, women generally need to gain greater confidence and expertise in business management to build their capacity to undertake new economic activities92 The government of Nigeria recognises the need for a gender-responsive approach in addressing the imperative of low-carbon development and specifically toward a net-zero emission by 2060 and also dealing with the challenges vulnerability. Towards achieving net- zero, the federal deputy council have approved a national action plan on Gender and Climate change (NAPGCC)93. In this regard, it will pursue the following broad gender strategic measures or interventions: i. Ensure gender-responsive and inclusive participation in its development activities– Ensure gender balanced representation in climate mitigation decision-making and integrate women’s and men’s needs and contributions across the planning and execution cycles of climate mitigation policies and projects. ii. Undertake gender analysis and sex-disaggregated data to direct policies and actions – Gather quantitative and qualitative sex-disaggregated data to produce in-depth and evidenced-based analysis that interrogate sources of gender-based vulnerability, and women’s historical and current disadvantages in mitigation actions. Set measurable gender-related targets and accountability frameworks for impacts and results. iii. Promote linking climate mitigation and technology to women's economic empowerment. Invest in female entrepreneurship, capacity building in green skills, and access climate finance support to ensure women are not left behind in the transition to low-carbon economic development. Adopt gender-specific policies that support equality and parity in all spheres of societal life in addition to affirmative action in favor of women-led businesses for uptake of economic opportunities in climate mitigation and technology. 5.8.8 Just Transition The idea of a just transition came about because of the realisation that shifting from extractive to regenerative energy and economics requires consideration of social justice and poverty in addition to the environment. “It seeks to ensure that the substantial benefits of a green 92 Department of Climate Change Federal Ministry of Environment (2020): National Action Plan on Gender and Climate Change for Ni geria. 93 climate-change-and-gender-action-plan.pdf (climatechange.gov.ng) 124 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 economy transition are shared widely and provides support for those who stand to lose economically.” 94 It outlines the transition from our existing social and economic systems to ones in which all jobs are environmentally and socially responsible, eliminates poverty, and local communities can prosper. Employers, governments, and workers must all participate in the transformation process for this to be successful. Based on each community's particular requirements, the framework for a Just Transition should appear different in each one. Just Transition in Nigeria’s LT-LEDS will ensure social dialogue and stakeholder engagement occur among workers, employers, governments, communities, and civil societies. Affected workers and communities receive the support, social protection, and investments they need to work and thrive in a zero-carbon future. It will also include revenue streams governments currently receive from fossil fuel production, equitably replaced by 2060, companies creating decent jobs and contributing to economic growth while taking positive action on climate change. Specifically, the following measures are considered appropriate: • Strengthening climate governance and implementation of sustainable development goals at all levels. • Enhancement of green investments and alignment between investment and climate policies and programmes. • Strengthening of programmes for upskilling climate-responsive actions. • Undertaking consistent public dialogues to promote improved employment, social protection, and well-being of workers. • National engagement in the global discourse on Just Transition 5.8.9 Water Sector With an annual growth rate of 3.2%, the population of Nigeria has been variously projected to reach about 263 million individuals by 203095. Water use will be expected to at least triple the current situation. The WRMP report (FMWR, 2014) estimated the annual total water demand in Nigeria to be about 5.93 billion m 3. It is expected to increase to 16.58 billion m 3 in 2030. The mitigation strategies by 2060 will focus on the following four key thematic areas of (i) Improving Energy Efficiency and Energy Production in the extraction, distribution, and treatment of water. (ii) Implementation of nature-based solutions in aquatic ecosystem management in improving the national carbon sink (iii) Adoption of nature-based solutions in water pollution control and management and (iv) Establishment of an effective and sustainable Public Private Partnership for the provision of climate -smart water supply and sanitation facilities and infrastructure across all sectors. i. Improving Energy Efficiency and Energy Production in the extraction, distribution, and treatment of water. Emphasis will be to: • Install energy efficient pumping system. • Metering of water consumption • Water distribution, system monitoring and regulation 94 What is a just transition? (ebrd.com) 95 Available at https://www.populationpyramid.net/nigeria/2030 . 125 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 • Reduction in leakage, metering errors and water theft • Adopt sustainable technologies and engineering for energy conservation in water production and usage. • increase Share of Nigerians with Access to water supply services from 68% to 90%. ii. Implementation of nature-based solutions in aquatic ecosystem management in improving the national carbon sink. This will involve: • Adopt sustainable water management practices. • Restore natural floodplains and riparian habitats to absorb carbon and create suitable environments for aquatic life. • Restore degraded wetlands and coastal habitats. iii. Adoption of nature-based solutions in water pollution control and management. This will entail: • Encourage the use of bioremediation in aquatic pollution control and management to reduce the emission of carbon and other GHGs into the environment. iv. Establishment of an effective and sustainable Public Private Partnership for the provision of climate -smart water supply and sanitation facilities and infrastructure by: • Introducing reforms in establishment, management, operation and maintenance of water supply and sanitation schemes and services • Deploy sustainable energy for water and sanitation facilities and infrastructure. • Continuation of the Partnership Expansion for Water Sanitation and Hygiene (PEWASH) The government will support the adoption of water-saving technologies especially in the agricultural and industrial sectors, Energy generation from biogas from anaerobic wastewater treatment plants, Heat recovery from wastewater and secondary wastewater products; and Source water protection, including ecological restoration activities - may also be an important mitigation opportunity and potential activities with automation to minimise water loss. This will require encouraging cultural change amongst consumers to improve efficiency and water infrastructure development in both supply and use, as captured in the water sector of the National Climate Change Programme. 5.8.10 Natural Capital with Biodiversity Climate change is a major driver of biodiversity erosion, and loss of biodiversity also accelerates climate change processes. Natural capital is the global stock of natural assets, such as geology, soil, air, water, and all living things. Biodiversity adds to the world’s natural capital, by making it richer, and more varied and robust: it effectively acts as a multiplier of the value of natural capital.96 Nigeria has enormous and untapped natural capital with 96 https://www.lloydsbank.com/business/resource-centre/insight/biodiversity-natural-capital.html 126 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 biodiversity that are crucial to addressing these challenges, whether in terms of climate change mitigation, resilience, and adaptation. There exist clear paths today that demonstrate climate mitigation and adaptation are possible by investing in nature. Climate action requires both the reduction of emissions and the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Nature offers a way to address increased resilience as the climate changes. Through conservation, restoration, and land- management measures, natural capital as natural climate solutions increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions. The mitigation measures suggested for harnessing the power of nature for Nigeria are outlined below: • Investing in data collection for better valuation and measurement of natural capital, including implementing and integrating natural capital and ecosystem services into the standard system of national accounts such as UNSEEA; • Creating a coherent framework for organising and standardising data biodiversity and natural capital data coming from different sources. • Implementing appropriate fiscal and market instruments for optimal utilisation of both renewable and non-renewable natural resources that take climate change and green growth into account. • Engaging leading sectors that depend upon natural capital and ecosystem systems, such as forestry, agriculture, fishing, and tourism, to find sustainable solutions. Examples include Payment for Ecosystem Service schemes or seeking funding through impact investment. • Investing in the capacity, technology, approaches, and tools needed to benefit from best practices in exploration and licensing initiatives and international agreements and • reforming institutions to improve transparency and implement best practices for the governance of natural resources. • Ensuring integrated landscape planning in the water catchments through a role for natural capital accounting (NCA) to also support climate change mitigation and adaptation. • Catalysing transformational change in conservation and sustainable management of critical transboundary landscapes and integrating NCA in the regional landscape planning and management • Encouraging businesses through enabling policies to understand nature-related risks, impacts, and dependencies is essential for growing businesses. • Improving the flow of data in both directions, between the private and public sectors, to increase opportunity for both sides in nature-related investments. • Identifying and creating incentive structures and subsidies that affect nature and climate positively. 127 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 128 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 . 6. Key Enablers for Implementing Nigeria’s LT-LEDS 6. Key Enablers for Implementing Nigeria’s LT-LEDS This LT-LEDS is about Nigeria reconciling its response to the climate crisis and challenge in terms of its mitigation and adaptation initiatives to foster low-carbon climate-resilient development that will promote economic growth, reduce poverty, improve inclusiveness and gender-responsive development. On one hand, mitigation measures will be in place to contribute to the global effort to prevent the degree of climate change from becoming unmanageable. On the other hand, adaptation measures to reduce the harm from climate change that proves unavoidable will be implemented to enable Nigerians to adjust to a warmer world, to protect people, nature, our prosperity, and our way of life. Effective balancing of mitigation and adaptation initiatives in its national development agenda will help Nigeria to overcome its major challenges and turn current problems into effective solutions, as well as make the country’s development climate compatible and resilient. This will be in addition to helping Nigeria to contribute its international climate commitment. The main challenge for Nigeria is how to rapidly transform its current heavy fossil fuel -based economy to a low-carbon economic development that will not only improve the well-being of its citizenry but will also enable her to fulfil her commitment to the global climate change agreement as elaborated in its NDCs. In particular, the pursuit of long-term development targets by achieving net-zero emissions must be implemented through the substantial transformation of the national development agenda. Meeting this challenge needs fresh ideas and a radical new innovative way of thinking and doing things. This includes strategic planning and how we maintain, improve, and use our natural resources (renewable and non- renewable) to generate and sustain long-term pro-poor economic growth, thereby reducing poverty and supporting the achievement of the goals of the PA and the SDGs. It also requires that new strategic approaches are in place to attract significant investment in the country’s 129 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 development to make it climate resilient as climate change affects the ability of natural capital to deliver its wide range of products and services. To do this effectively, Nigeria will put in place critical enabling innovations for the implementation of the LT-LEDS. These Innovations will be related to policies, economic and social development, finance, technology, and research and development. 6.1 Policy Innovation Nigeria will design and implement enabling policies that will create a conducive environment for the LT-LEDS implementation. Policymakers will be empowered to appropriately consider social equity, environmental justice, and gender equality in designing policies to ensure that the benefits of LT-LEDS are equitably shared across society. The enabling policy approach to incentivise low-carbon development will include setting appropriate regulatory frameworks, designing effective carbon pricing mechanisms, providing incentives for renewable energy development, and investing in sustainable infrastructure. ▪ Regulatory Frameworks: These will be used to set targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and enforcement of those targets. Clear rules and regulations for renewable energy development, energy efficiency, and sustainable transport, among others will be established. ▪ Carbon Pricing Mechanisms: Carbon pricing, as a policy instrument that puts a price on greenhouse gas emissions to create a financial incentive for polluters to reduce their emissions, will be established. The opportunity for carbon pricing mechanisms in the form of carbon taxes, cap-and-trade systems, or carbon fees to fund LT-LEDS, will be explored. ▪ Incentives for Low-Emission and Renewable Energy Technologies: In the implementation of the LT-LEDS, policies that incentivize the deployment of low- emission and renewable energy technologies, such as solar and wind power will be implemented. They will take the form of tax credits, subsidies, or feed-in tariffs that provide a guaranteed price for renewable energy generation. The implementation of these policies will help to reduce the cost of renewable energy, making it more competitive with fossil fuels and enhancing wider adoption by the populace to accelerate the national path to net-zero emission development in Nigeria. ▪ Investment in Sustainable Infrastructure: Investment in sustainable infrastructure, such as public transportation, green buildings, and sustainable urban planning, that is critical to enabling the implementation of LT-LEDS will be promoted through public-private partnerships. The government of Nigeria will prioritize public investment in sustainable infrastructure, which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and create jobs. For example, investing in public transportation can reduce emissions from private cars while improving access to employment and services. 130 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 A major innovation will be to knit relevant policies from the plethora of national sectoral policies in the country together into a robust, coherent, and inclusive policy framework to support systemic transformations for the implementation of the LT-LEDS. A concerted national effort will be made to implement well-established robust policies to ensure timely shifting of investments at a scale that will have a significant drive for the attainment of net- zero emission, low-carbon, and climate-resilient development in the National Agenda 2050. Also, each MDAs should allocate funds in their annual appropriation for implementation of climate actions as it relates to their sector. 6.2 Economic Innovation Implementing the LT-LEDS will require significant economic transformations and innovations. These may include transitioning to low-carbon economies, investing in sustainable infrastructure, and promoting green jobs. In particular, green finance mechanisms will be employed to accelerate the deployment of low-carbon and climate-resilient investments, as well as provide needed capital for low-emission infrastructure development. They may include measures and instruments like green bonds, which are debt securities issued to finance environmentally friendly projects, and for which Nigeria had already issued twice through the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Stock Exchange Commission (SEC) and used for programmes and projects within individual MDAs sector strategies. In addition to the use of green bonds, Nigeria will explore other innovative financing mechanisms, such as green banks and public-private partnerships to finance needed economic transformations to low- carbon sustainable development. Enterprises will be encouraged and supported to adopt green and low-carbon technological innovation is an important measure to cope with climate change and achieve low-carbon economic development. Pollution tax, low-carbon technology innovation subsidy, and environmental protection publicity and guidance that can effectively stimulate enterprises’ green and low-carbon technology innovation will be used as economic incentives. 6.3 Social Innovation Successful implementation of Nigeria’s LT-LEDS will require significant changes in social behaviour and norms. In this regard, Nigeria will ensure inclusiveness and community-based approaches that prioritize local knowledge, culture, and values in implementing LT-LEDS. This will include promoting public participation in decision-making processes and ensuring that vulnerable communities are not left behind. Key measures to this effect will include: ▪ Public participation: Governments at all levels will involve citizens in the decision-making process, particularly those who are most impacted by climate change, in the process of LT-LEDS implementation, through public consultations, citizen assemblies, and participatory budgeting, to ensure transparency, accountability and responsiveness to local needs. ▪ Equity: 131 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 This will include addressing the needs of vulnerable communities, such as low-income households, indigenous peoples, and marginalized groups to ensure that the benefits and costs of LT-LEDS are equitably shared across society. ▪ Community engagement: As different stakeholders have been involved in the development of the LT-LEDS, communities will also be involved in its implementation to increase awareness, build support, and create ownership of low-emission strategies. Public consultations, stakeholder engagement, and citizen science initiatives, among others, will be used as a means of engagement. ▪ Behaviour change: The government recognises that changing individual and collective behaviour will be critical for the successful implementation of the LT-LEDS. A major innovation will be to use social norms, education, and nudges to promote low-carbon lifestyles, such as active transportation, reduced meat consumption and energy conservation to motivate behaviour change. ▪ Social entrepreneurship: Social entrepreneurship, involving the use of entrepreneurial skills and methods to create social entrepreneurs, will be developed to scale up LT-LEDS solutions by creating new products, services, and business models that address social and environmental challenges. Social entrepreneurship will also create promoted to create green jobs and foster economic growth in communities for the sustainability of various LT-LEDS initiatives. ▪ Collaborative governance: Collaborative governance that brings together different stakeholders, including government at all the three tiers of governance of Nigeria, civil society, and the private sector, will be promoted and sustained in the implementation of Nigeria’s LT-LEDS to collectively address the necessary complex social and environmental transformations for the attainment of net- zero, low-carbon, and climate-resilient development. This will help to build trust, increase transparency, and foster innovation in the implementation of the LT-LEDS. 6.4 Technological Innovation Just as the causes of climate change are complex, climate change impacts are also disruptive and largely unpredictable, diverse and context dependent. Thus, climate change mitigation and adaptation activities and initiatives are so many and varied. They range from simple techniques and practices to highly sophisticated technologies. Advancements in technology will, therefore, be critical to enabling the implementation of the LT-LEDS. The development and deployment of innovative technologies will help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase energy efficiency, and promote sustainable development. The following are some ways in which technological innovations will be deployed to support the implementation of the LT-LEDS, particularly in areas of renewable energy, energy storage, and carbon capture and storage: 132 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 ▪ Renewable energy technologies: The government will accelerate the deployment of renewable energy technologies in the implementation of the LT-LEDS in an innovative and globally competitive manner to capture the latest technologies that will help the required rapid transition to low-carbon energy system. ▪ Energy storage technologies: Up-to-date energy storage technologies, such as batteries, flywheels, and pumped hydro storage, that will help address the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources and improve the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid will be deployed to reduce the need for fossil fuel-based peaking power plants and support the integration of variable renewable energy sources in the process of the LT-LEDS implementation. ▪ Energy efficiency technologies: Energy efficiency technologies, such as smart thermostats, efficient lighting, and building insulation, that can help reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in buildings, industry, and transportation will be promoted for wide adoption. They will also be deployed to reduce energy costs, improve comfort and health, and create jobs in the implementation of Nigeria’s LT-LEDS. ▪ Carbon capture and storage technologies: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies that will help capture and store carbon dioxide emissions from existing fossil fuel-based power plants and industrial facilities will appropriately be deployed for the development of low-carbon industrial processes, such as carbon-neutral steel making, in the implementation of the LT-LEDS. ▪ Digital technologies: Digital technologies, such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet that can help optimize the operation of energy systems, improve energy efficiency, and enable the integration of renewable energy sources will be deployed to help monitor and manage the implementation of the LT-LEDS. In general, Nigeria will invest in research and development of low-carbon technologies, promote technology transfer from developed countries, support the development of domestic clean technology industries and. prioritize the adoption of smart technologies to accelerate the pace of transition to net-zero emission, low-carbon, and climate resilient development. Nigeria will also leverage the space technology from National Space Research & development Agency (NASRDA) in achieving the desired net-zero emission as its vital in measuring change detection vis-à-vis vegetation, water bodies, urban built up, grazing route, disasters (flooding, earthquakes, fires e.t.c). Monitoring these natural phenomena from space can effectively and efficiently help bring in precision in what we do in this direction along with smart Agriculture. 133 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 6.5 Financial Innovation In view of the expected high cost of transiting to net-zero, low-carbon and climate-resilient development financial innovations will be necessary to mobilize the necessary resources to implement the LT-LEDS. Nigeria will explore innovative financing mechanisms such as carbon pricing, green bonds, and climate risk insurance and prioritize public investment in LT-LEDS and encourage private investment in sustainable development. It will create financial incentives for the adoption of sustainable practices such as energy efficiency and renewable energy. In addition to the use of green bonds that was mentioned as part of the economic incentive, the following are some ways in which financial innovations will be adopted to support the implementation of the LT-LEDS: i.Climate risk insurance: Climate risk insurance is a financial product that helps protect vulnerable populations and businesses from the impacts of climate change. It will be deployed to help reduce the financial risks associated with LT-LEDS initiatives, such as extreme weather events, natural disasters, and policy changes. By providing a safety net for investments in low-emission strategies, climate risk insurance can help increase the attractiveness of LT-LEDS investments. ii.Impact investing: Impact investing involves investing in companies, organizations, and funds that generate measurable social and environmental impact, as well as financial returns. Impact investing will be encouraged through appropriate policies to help support the development and scaling up of the LT-LEDS solutions by providing capital, expertise, and networks to social and environmental entrepreneurs. By aligning financial returns with positive social and environmental outcomes, impact investing will help unlock new sources of capital for Nigeria’s LT-LEDS. iii.Payment for ecosystem services: Payment for ecosystem services (PES) will be deployed to provide financial incentives to landowners and communities for conserving or restoring ecosystems that provide valuable services, such as carbon sequestration, water purification, and biodiversity conservation. This will effectively help support the implementation of the LT-LEDS by incentivizing the adoption of sustainable land management practices, such as agroforestry, sustainable agriculture, and reforestation and by providing a source of income to rural communities, PES will also help reduce poverty and improve people’s well-being and livelihood that are so critical to the sustainable development of Nigeria. iv.National Climate Fund: The Climate Change Act 2021 established Climate Change Fund, which will warehouse amounts paid by way of carbon taxes and emission trading; appropriations from the National Assembly, funding from international organisations; fines and charges issued to private and public entities; subventions, grants, donations, and fees etc. It is expected that its modality and operationalization will be a major priority for the National Council on Climate Change for 134 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 its effective deployment to promote net-zero emission, low-carbon, and climate-resilient development by 2060 in the country. v.Emission trading system (ETS): The Government of Nigeria is also in the process of establishing an ETS as one of the mechanisms to mobilise effectively for financing its climate response. ETS or cap-and-trade system, sets a limit (“cap”) on total direct GHG emissions from specific sectors and sets up a market where the rights to emit (in the form of carbon permits or allowances) are traded. This approach allows polluters to meet emissions reduction targets flexibly and at the lowest cost. It provides certainty about emissions reductions, but not the price for emissions, which fluctuates with the market. ETS will be fully deployed in the implementation of the LT-LEDS These financial innovations would be designed and implemented in a way that maximiss social and environmental benefits and minimises negative impacts, such as social exclusion, environmental degradation, and financial instability. 6.6 Research and Development Demand-driven research partnerships with research users across the public and private sectors that can lead to innovation in mitigation and adaptation research and scaling will be promoted. Its outputs will be used to inform decision-making by governments, the private sector, and development organizations at all levels of governance in Nigeria. This will invariably support the implementation of high-impact mitigation and adaptation actions for meaningful progress toward the country’s LT-LEDS targets. Nigeria will implement monitoring and evaluation processes, and engage scientific institutions, to strengthen learning from and improvement of LT-LEDS policy processes and inform and implement a ratcheting-up strategy as provided by the PA. Overall, enabling policy, economic, social, financial, and technological innovations, with adequate demand-driven research is critical for the successful implementation of LT-LEDS. By developing a comprehensive and collaborative approach that addresses these key areas, Nigeria will create a sustainable and climate-resilient low-carbon future. It will design and implement enabling policy, economic, social, financial, and technological innovations. The Government will prioritize public investment in LT-LEDS and encourage private investment in sustainable development. Furthermore, the Government prioritise social equity, environmental justice, and gender equality in designing policies and implementing LT-LEDS to ensure that the benefits are equally shared across society. 135 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 136 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 7. Way Forward- Implementation Framework for the LT-LEDS 7. Way Forward- Implementation Framework for the LT-LEDS 7.1 Action Plan for Implementing the LT-LEDS To realise net-zero emissions by 2060 and ensure a climate resilience society, the strategic mitigation and adaptation measures are summarised in the action plan outlined in the immediate, short-term, and long-term (Appendix 4 and 5). Also outlined in the action are the responsibilities and performance indicators. The action plan will guide the full and effective implementation of the LT-LEDS and take into cognizance the multi-sectoral nature of the LT- LEDS A brief on the finance strategy, governance structure and roles and responsibilities with action for climate empowerment (ACE) and capacity building are presented in this Section. Also described are the aspects of technology development and transfer and the monitoring, reporting, and verification. 7.2 Governance Structure, Roles and Responsibilities The institutional arrangements draw from the governance structure used in elaborating this LT-LEDS through all stakeholders' formal agreement and commitment. The arrangements include planning, coordinating, and implementing climate change policy and action and integrating climate change aspects into broader development planning. Such formal institutional arrangements ensure the integration of climate and development priorities. It thus provides a high-level endorsement to the LT-LEDS to place climate change at the heart of government decision-making, which already has an overarching vision for enhancing institutional capacities at all levels, preventing, and minimizing possible challenges and trade- offs through coordination, ensuring effective coordination, and providing strategic orientation in achieving the long-term goal. The UNFCCC Focal Point has the ownership and responsibility, to work with the other stakeholders to ensure the implementation of this LT-LEDS. 7.3 Finance Strategy Consistent financial flows with a pathway towards low-emission and climate-resilient development are vital to implementing this LT-LEDS. The financial needs for implementing the LT-LEDS include as much as possible finance needs described general statements on needs and costed needs, which have identified funding sources (domestic finance, international 137 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 support, and private finance). It also involves efforts taken so far by the government to increase finance flows through economic policy measures, financing mechanisms or financial instruments, such as taxes, levies, fiscal incentives, and carbon pricing mechanisms. Climate finance needs to involve mitigation measures developed for the following sectors: energy, forestry, industry, land use, and transportation sectors. Agriculture, coastal protection, disaster risk management, disaster risk reduction, and ecosystem and biodiversity are critical for adaptation measures. The funding sources for implementing this LT-LEDS will be domestic finance and international support with the support of private finance. As outlined in this strategy, using relevant channels and instruments that include establishing bilateral and regional cooperation, promoting green investment through strategic sector cooperation, allocating grants and loans for capacity-building, and sponsoring research and development of innovative technologies for mitigation and adaptation. The government anticipates increasing finance flows through economic policy measures, financing mechanisms or financial instruments as it implements the existing fiscal policies such as taxes, levies, fiscal incentives, and carbon pricing to spur low-carbon investments. Other economic or regulatory policies and measures would include green tariff systems and emission pricing based on the ‘polluter pays’ principle, dedicated programmes and incentives for green investments, and national action plans to regulate emissions (as per the 2021 Climate Change Act). In addition, for broader efforts to transition to low-emission and climate-resilient development, other relevant financial instruments shall include loans, guarantees, grants and strengthening the green bond market that issues green sovereign bonds. Also, efforts would redirect financial flows consistent with the pathway that aligns with this LT-LEDS for low- emission and climate-resilient development by developing national financial strategies such as attracting foreign direct investment and establishing green taxonomies to facilitate redirecting financial flows and developing climate finance strategies and road maps. Thus, substantial investments are required to ensure a transition to a long-term low- emissions pathway that aligns with economic and environmental necessity. The finance strategy of LT-LEDS, which aims to provide a data-driven blueprint, needs to be developed. This will align with and complement the existing climate finance policies and strategies to finance the transition to a low-emission pathway and reach net -zero emissions by mid- century. An outline of the finance strategy for Nigeria’s LT-LEDS is provided in Appendix 6. 7.4 Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) and Capacity Building ACE is relevant to ensure the effective implementation of LT-LEDS mitigation and adaptation measures. ACE elements include, for example, climate education and public awareness, training, public participation, and public access to information. These elements provide bases for domestic and international cooperation on the ACE elements as they are indispensable tools for mobilizing all sectors of society towards achieving the measures outlined to achieve long-term goals. This is even more so as the transition to a low-emission and resilient economy and culture could be achieved only with a collective long-term vision, strategy, and 138 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 efforts. Such efforts include all community members, including children and youth, educated, and empowered to make climate-conscious decisions, fully equipping the current and future workforce with the skills necessary to address the climate crisis. Capacity-building is crucial to the implementation of the LT-LEDS as an operational strategy. Capacity-building measures are a cross-cutting issue with an overarching enabler for adaptation and mitigation commitments and actions. For instance, capacity-building facilitates technology development, access to climate finance, public engagement, and transparent information communication. The LT-LEDS recognises that adaptive capacity for managing the transition to a decarbonised and climate-resilient future in the long term through enhanced social and ecological capacity is needed. This supports the system to absorb stresses and maintain functions in the face of climate change and to reorganise social activities and human behaviour in preparation for the future impacts of climate change. The capacity-building, including education and training, to all stakeholders raised awareness for a climate-conscious society and equipped the population with the skills and knowledge needed for climate action. An integrated approach to capacity development at all levels would ensure an inclusive transition towards the pathway to net-zero emissions and a climate-resilient economy. This LT-LEDS requires international cooperation to fulfil the identified capacity needs and gaps, including technical, infrastructural, financial, human, and institutional needs and gaps. Fundamentally, the LT-LEDs will support ensuring capacity-building partnerships through regional and international institutions are essential for aligning national and regional plans and actions. 7.5 Technology Development and Transfer with International Partnership Technologies and innovation are fundamental to addressing climate change and the economic growth of Nigeria. These assist in creating jobs, increasing competitiveness, supporting sustainable development, and enhancing living standards. A well-designed mix of policies is relevant as these serve to reduce costs, including public research and development, demonstration and pilot projects, and demand-pull policies, which create incentives and market opportunities. Raising public awareness of available and affordable climate technologies was considered an effective tool for implementing climate technologies on both the supply and demand sides. However, the current lack of energy security will hamper decarbonisation efforts in some LT- LEDS. The joint development by Nigeria and its international partners would lead to sustainable energy consumption technologies, including energy-saving and energy-efficiency technologies, delivering low-cost emission reduction measures cost and significant synergistic benefits in the medium and long term. 139 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 7.6 Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification To optimise monitoring and support policymaking, support the design, cost-benefit analyses and prioritisation of adaptation measures, it is required to set up a dedicated Climate Data Centre. The work packages for the realisation: i. Set up a national (or regional) physical data center. Develop and install a platform that consists of a data warehouse, decision support toolkit and several (example) decision support tools. The Centre will serve as a hub for region-wide information, including water, land use, environmental and climate change information, education, and outreach, and provide support to specialized studies and research projects that inform decisions and investments in the region. ii. Capacity building. Provide an extensive training program for operations, data engineers, scientists, and decision support tool developers. Create a digital experience centre to train policymakers, decision makers and end users in how to use the DSS tools to their advantage. Set up an educational program to connect to future stakeholders. Profit from the innovation created within the world of science. iii. Set up a data governance, business model and sharing policy to ensure data availability and enable commercial and noncommercial stakeholders to profit from the centre. The results would be a locally maintained data centre and platform with a vibrant ecosystem of decision support tools providing valuable information to end-users enhancing the capacity to manage and adapt to climate change. Trained stakeholders and sustainable data governance and related business models would also result. Indicators and reporting elements shall include quantified data such as GHG emissions, sink capacity, economic and energy statistics for the current situation and intermediate and long - term targets, and qualitative descriptions by sector, including but not limited to agriculture, buildings, energy, industry, LULUCF, transport and waste, to inform on the achievement of domestic policies and measures. 7.7 Possible Challenges/Risks in the Implementation of the LT-LEDS In the implementation of the LT-LEDs, some challenges have been identified, which include, notably: i. The challenge to economic resilience posed by the global transition requires less reliance on fossil fuel revenues as the world moves towards a low-carbon world. This needs the development of additional fiscal revenues to meet development objectives and push mitigation and adaptation measures simultaneously. This is a challenge to Nigeria. The role of oil and gas (exports) in the Nigerian economy, today and tomorrow, looks strong reading the body language and pronouncements of the government. The critical question of what happens by 2040-60 if prices of oil and gas drop as a result of a global reduction in the use of oil and gas remains the elephant in the room. Would continual 140 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 investments in fossil fuel-intensive systems delay or obstruct the transition to low-carbon alternatives – which would put the country’s climate efforts in danger and potentially cause higher costs for the transition to a low-carbon economy? Would continual fossil fuel-intensive investments be neutral for Nigeria’s ability to meet its future development aspiration for a rapidly growing population with lower global demand? What alternative measures does Nigeria count on to pick up the corresponding loss of government revenues? These questions remain critical and need further analysis as we advance to adequately situate this in Nigeria’s climate efforts and avert the danger that could potentially cause higher costs for the transition to a low-carbon economy. ii. Generally practical use of technologies is still in infancy. Effective international support and cooperation will require steadfast commitment of technology transfer backed by genuine and resource support to the nation. iii. Another possible risk is what is termed a transboundary and cascading climate risks. Risks that are occasioned by events elsewhere, but which impacts are greatly felt where they are least expected. These impacts can erode any adaptation measures gains being undertaken where they manifest. The need for some anticipatory measures is imperative. 7.8 LT-LEDS Update As much as possible, this LT-LEDS reflects the most recent data and information, analysis, and scenario for potential future contributions to the global climate actions in achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal and supporting the development agenda in Nigeria. As one of the countries contributing to less than 4% of global GHG emissions and one with the least adaptive capacity, the country will likely experience dynamic changes that will impact the current situation upon which the report is based. Necessarily, the LT-LEDS will be monitored, reviewed and updated. The result will be used to update the report and inform relevant decisions, considering national circumstances, capacity and capability, and the provision under the Paris Agreement. Thus, given many significant changes can occur over a long-term period, including factors beyond the control of the country, Nigeria shall keep this LT-LEDS as a live document to reflect changes in technology, socio-economic and political context, scientific knowledge, and national capacity as they occur. The timeline to review and update this LT-LEDS would align with the timeline to update NDCs so that the LT-LEDS will guide subsequent NDC revisions and updates. 141 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 7.9 Conclusion The Nigeria LT-LEDS has been developed as an easy-to-implement strategy that considers the country's economic growth and social development objectives based on science and robust stakeholders undertaken. Also, while meeting climate objectives, it is designed to protect and improve the management and use of natural resources and ecosystems through institutional capacity building, governance, and investment/financing requirements. The LT-LEDS, which properly align key national development policies, strategies, and plans for coherence, provide a pathway for a long-term whole-of-society transformation. It will guide medium to long-term planning and investment decisions for an effective transition to a low greenhouse gas emission and resilient future while promoting shared socio-economic prosperity. In conclusion, Nigeria's ability to achieve the LT-LEDS lofty goals will be contingent, among others, on the maturity of the available technologies and practical and effective international cooperation, even concerning building a climate-resilient society. 142 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 133 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 APPENDICES

Appendix 1: LT-LEDS Approach Governance, MDA coordination and Project Management: This process began with evaluating the existing governance structure and evolving the most ideal model, based on gaps and realities entails It entailed focusing on the governance details and approaches that are needed in the process of LT-LEDS development and on its successful implementation.. Modelling and future scenario analysis: This was undertaken using available data and models to generate future sectoral scenarios needed to understand and develop strategies that will be best for Nigeria as it transitions to a low-carbon economy that supports sustainable development. The strategies developed under these scenarios constitute the main elements of the LT-LEDS for the country. Stakeholder Engagement: A multi-stakeholder engagement constituted a key element in the development of the LT-LEDS. This also forms the bedrock for sustaining and embedding the strategy, especially as it directly impacts the living conditions of the nation. Through the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders, the promotion of sustainable development and climate-proofed economic development is guaranteed97 Action Plan and LT-LEDS Implementation: An action plan to guide the full and effective implementation of the LT-LEDS has been developed. This takes into cognizance the multi-sectoral nature of LT-LEDS. It takes into focus as well the grey areas that could emanate in at the implementation stage. LT-LEDS Report Drafting and Elaboration: Based on interaction with a range of stakeholders, a team of technical experts was constituted to draft the initial technical report. This was critiqued by a group of sectoral and technical experts before the report was then subjected to sector-specific and national validations. The international dimension was not left out as the document was subjected to the review by international partners. 97 Webinar Series - https://www.environewsnigeria.com/nigeria-advances-strategy-to-actualise-net-zero-emission-by-2060/ - https://www.environewsnigeria.com/climate-change-govt-launches-nigerias-long-term-low-emissions-development-strategy/ - https://von.gov.ng/2022/05/12/nigeria-launches-long-term-low-emission-development- strategy/#:~:text=The%20Nigerian%20government%20has%20launched%20the%20Steering%20Committee,plans%20for%20achieving%20lo w-carbon%2C%20decarbonisation%20and%20climate-resilient%20societies. - - 1 st webinar August 10, 2022 focused on Update of the Technical Working Group (TWG) on the Project Progress Including a discussion on the scenarios and modelling - 2 nd Webinar August 12, 2022 on Understanding the Nigeria Long-term Vision 2050 (LTV 2050) was designed to provide balanced and objective information to assist experts in understanding the scope of Nigeria’s LT-LEDs elaborations and so contribute more meaningfully instead of posting irrelevant information on the WhatsApp Platform which caused “information overflow” raised by some stakeholders in the WhatsApp Group as an obstacle to successful engagement. It is not the webinar itself that stands to address the issue observed. 144 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060

Appendix 2: Summary of Stakeholders Outcomes or Recommendations from Engagements SECTOR RECOMMENDATION FROM THE ENGAGEMENT Mitigation: ➢ Inclusiveness in suggesting technologies when implementing. ➢ Accountability System, Call institutions along the value chain of and act (from communities and Government Institutions ➢ Climate Education Strategies to Grassroot Stakeholders like Farmers, Cattle Rarers, and Youths. ➢ Improved Nutrition ➢ Improved methods and species for crops like rice and animal husbandry that are high emitters of GHG gases like Methane. ➢ Proper Agricultural Waste Management. ➢ Climate-smart agriculture to Enhance food production /security to measure the adoption rate of public investment. ➢ Agricultural biotechnology will Improve the quality of seeds, improved breed of livestock, biosafety, and biosecurity. AFOLU Adaptation: ➢ Restoration of Land degraded by extensive agricultural use. ➢ Selective breeding to create species resistance to new climate/environmental conditions. ➢ Documents should be prepared in a manner stakeholders can understand. ➢ Spatial Variability Analysis ➢ Data Gathering and Management. ➢ Integrated climate change monitoring, evaluation, and early warning system to enhance response to disasters, availability of climate-related data. ➢ Selective breeding via controlled mating to Improve quality of livestock and reduced mortality rate. ➢ Manure management to Reduction in the volume of agricultural waste. Improved productivity and rate of adoption. 145 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Mitigation: ➢ Ensure gender-inclusive participation and in its development and activities. ➢ Education, Sensitization and Advocacy. Gender and other cross cutting issues ➢ Demystify Climate conversations by using local languages and scaling it down. ➢ promoting the development and use of software such as carbon calculators. ➢ Strengthening already regulations on plastic waste and use of renewable energy Adaptation: ➢ Ensure gender responsive and inclusive participation in its development and adaptive activities. ➢ Education of gender on roles in adapting to climate change issues ➢ Demystify Climate conversations by using local languages and scaling it down. ➢ Practice of Climate Smart Agriculture ➢ Preserving and Documenting Climate friendly cultural practice Mitigation: Oil and Gas ➢ Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) ➢ Blending fossils with bio-products to get Biofuels. ➢ Improved emission containment technologies e.g., Technologies to mitigate gas venting. Oil and Gas, Industry Sector ➢ Strengthening the existing regulations such as the Gas Flare (prevention of waste and pollution) regulations ➢ Applying renewables energy in our oil and gas facilities ➢ Re-usage of waste gas or products from midstream facilities within the same system in optimizing production. ➢ Carbon emission trading schemes ➢ Reticulation systems for gas distributions ➢ Sensitization on clean cooking tiative (usage of LPG in homes for cooking) Industries ➢ Application of Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS) technology ➢ Biomass fuels usage ➢ Improved energy efficiency systems such as converting to energy bulbs, turning off appliances etc. ➢ Creation of micro-distribution systems by creating clusters within areas for easier energy utilisation 146 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 ➢ Using gas as a transition fuel in the short term to aid the establishment of low energy capacity and address the nation’s clean cooking deficit in the form of LPG this will aid Percentage usage by household industry. ➢ Using gas supply and distribution networks to power the economy, especially gas for thermal power plants, industrial development fertilisers, transport and for export markets to aid percentage reduction in carbon emission. Adaptation: ➢ Immediate use of natural gas to power industry to aid percentage increase in gas usage. ➢ Adoption of energy-efficient principles in industries will aid Reduction of energy consumption. ➢ Developing and adopting Carbon capturing and utilisation technologies, the substitution of inorganic raw materials with less energy-consuming ones will reduce carbon footprint. ➢ Improving thermal and electric energy efficiency, reducing clinker to cement ration by blending mineral substitutes and using lower carbon alternative fuels to fire the kiln. ➢ Use of briquettes as fuels for heating processes in industries and encouraging them to go into CO and Tri- generation. Mitigation: ➢ Target Specific investment in strengthening the Local Content value chain, R&D and Trang ➢ To provide an incentives framework for production ➢ Resource map for renewable energy ➢ National Awareness Framework i.e., Advocacy and awareness programmes Power and Building in schools and grassroots involvement ➢ Develop an MRV ➢ Domestication of foreign technology ➢ Incorporate low-emission procedures and systems by Production of books on building code. ➢ Using gas and steam in a combined cycle with carbon capture ➢ Retrofitting of existing buildings to promote energy conservation. ➢ Biogas for electrification from Agric lands, abattoirs ➢ Enforce 30 per cent Green Area in the property Advocacy and awareness programmes in schools and grassroots involvement. ➢ Energy Audit periodically 2 - 3 times a year before retrofitting buildings. ➢ Harmonizing and strengthening existing policies and laws 147 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Adaptation: ➢ Asset Risk Assessment ➢ Green Building Codes ➢ Pilot projects to test adaptability. ➢ Create Awareness and promoting attitude change. ➢ Setting up an MRV System ➢ Flood control strategies and the creation of buffer zones ➢ Provision of incentives in the renewable energy space [tax incentives and subsidies for low energy buildings] ➢ Stress test for buildings to prevent building collapse. ➢ Integrate energy waste levies on manufacturing companies to improve waste management practices. ➢ Green building adaptation strategies [rooftop greens, space utilisation, vegetation, and growth] ➢ Subsidised access to renewable energies in rural communities ➢ Installation of air quality monitoring equipment at strategic locations Mitigation: ➢ Transport and rigorous Climate Education. ➢ Develop Energy efficient transport policy. ➢ Improvement of Mass Transport systems e.g., rail, ferry, CNG and electric buses etc ➢ Promotion of use and production of local electric, hydrogen vehicles. ➢ Robust investments in R&D and innovation on new sources of energy. ➢ Use of Renewable Energy to charge EV Stations ➢ Making city centres fewer. Mass transit options -waterways, rail, and air as Transport and Cities against over-reliance on roads. Will aid the Level of investment in transport infrastructure. ➢ Empower cities to access international finance and technology flows. ➢ Empower citizens to contribute towards public decision-making regarding climate change. ➢ Improving vehicle standards, inspection, and enforcement. ➢ Ensuring that climate action advances environmental, racial, and social justice will aid the reduction of offenders. Adaptation: ➢ Full implementation of National Vehicular Emission Control Programme. (NVECP). ➢ Embracing and enforcing the concept of Circular Economy process in transportation ➢ Investment in Transport Infrastructure. ➢ Urban Green Cities Development. 148 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 ➢ Community Engagement and the implementation of efficient transport policy ➢ Use of animal carts in rural areas and NMT ➢ Adapting mainstream low-carbon and resilient economy into national development. ➢ Public awareness of auto-centric life reduction and its negativity. Auto- centric life car usage aids global warming. Mitigation: ➢ Proper waste disposal methods as recommended by the National Policy on Solid Waste enable mitigate GHG emissions from waste. ➢ Adopting the circular economy process will enable the life cycle of material to be extended and help in mitigation by reducing emissions from the waste disposal process. ➢ Alignment of waste masterplan across all levels of waste management to ensure a process that reduces the emission of GHG into the atmosphere. ➢ Inclusion of proper waste management procedures/culture into the education curriculum ➢ Engagement of people of influence to get political buy-in Circular Economy and Waste Management ➢ Construction of Solid municipal waste processing plants in major urban centers might take a medium or long-time horizon and should be the responsibility of both the government and Public Private Partnership ➢ Setting up Paper/Glass/Metal separation systems in major urban centres. Local separations are also encouraged in Households. A responsibility of Govt; Public Private Partnership; Local Households ➢ Enhanced co-incineration of waste, reuse, and recycling. Responsibility of Public Private Partnership, ➢ Development consistently enhanced waste correction. A medium-term Horizon and Responsibility of the Government ➢ Use of Recyclable materials for production in industries producing consumables. And this is the responsibility of the industries Adaptation: ➢ Policy, regulation, and Governance ➢ Waste Reduction ➢ Communication and Awareness Campaign ➢ Trang and Capacity Building ➢ Data Management, Research ➢ Creating Waste management ambassadors through training and capacity building. With the responsibility of NGOs, government, Public-Private partnerships, etc. ➢ Adaptation of Circular Economy spearheaded by the govt. ➢ Alignment of relevant national and state laws and regulations, and policies with int’l regional framework for waste mgt. 149 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 ➢ Development and promotion of public awareness campaigns ➢ Promotion of methane collection in water treatment plants Key mitigation in the water sector that will be adopted by the government of Nigeria and their respective potential for CO2 reduction are elaborated in GIZ (2012), UNESCO, UN-Water (2019) and Oladipo (2021). They are related to increasing energy efficiency and energy production, as well as what is referred to as natural-based solutions. Mitigation: ➢ Environment: It’s an ongoing process on the term horizon which is sponsored by the Government and the Private sector and performs the reduction of pollution in the economy. ➢ Natural Circumstances: It’s a short-term horizon which is sponsored by the Government and the media and performs the improvement of compliance. ➢ Technology: It’s a short-term horizon which is the response by the Government and Private Sector and performs Quality or water saved/applied ➢ Finance: It’s a long-term horizon which is responsible also for the Government and Private sector and performs more on investment. ➢ Economic: It’s a long-term horizon which is the responsibility of the Government and Public sector and performs the increment in GDP ➢ Installation and use of Energy Efficient and Renewable energy pumps for water production. ➢ Implementing improved water management practices and systems. ➢ Restoration or creation of riparian habitat to act as a carbon sink. ➢ Reduction of non-revenue water (Wastage in transmission). (Network Control) ➢ Use of Surface water as a renewable energy source (Hydro-power, ) Adaptation: ➢ Preserving and Restoration of Wetlands. ➢ Adapting efficient water utilisation technology. ➢ Introduction of Smart irrigation systems that reduce water loss in transmission via leakage and transpiration. ➢ Preservation of resources in coastal Mangrove ➢ Technology that demands less water usage. ➢ Social: It’s a long-term horizon which is the responsibility of the Public Sector and Increased/Improved Access to Water. Water Sector ➢ Natural Circumstances: It’s a long-term horizon which is sponsored by the Government only and increased the population served. ➢ Technology: It’s a short-term horizon which is the response by the Government and Private Sector and performs Quality or water saved/applied 150 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 ➢ Finance: It’s a long-term horizon which is responsible also by the Government and Private sector and performs more on investment. Mitigation: ➢ Implement and adjust an inclusive transition to renewable energy to save lives from air pollution, particularly from fossil fuel and coal. ➢ Develop environmentally sustainable healthcare facilities across sectors to HEALTH SECTOR reduce morbidity rate. ➢ Promote sustainable healthy urban design and environment. Adaptation: ➢ Use of alternative /substitute ‘low emitting’ locally made building materials in the health sector. ➢ Climate resilient health infrastructure ➢ Strengthening disease prevention and treatment systems 151 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 3: Key Policy Assumptions Supporting the GHG Emission Scenarios for the various Sectors Sectorial-based key policy assumptions Detailed Consideration Supporting Sectors Current Policy Program Gas Economy Renewable Energy Scenario (Blend of Scenario Scenario NDC and ETP) Universal access to modern energy by 2030 National Energy By 2050, grid power Grid power consists of Grid power consists of CSP Policy. mix consist of CSP CSP (1000MW), (15000MW), Nuclear (5000MW), nuclear Nuclear (15000MW), (20000MW), Solar PV utility Mambilla Hydro (8000 MW), large Solar PV utility (45000MW), Wind Project. hydro (24000 MW), (45000MW), Wind (25000MW), biogas from solar PV (150000 (1000MW), biogas waste (15000MW), (3050MW) MW), wind (20000 from waste Biomass (20000MW), coal MW), biomass (5000MW), Biomass (0MW), large hydro Energy for all: (9500 MW). (1000MW), coal (0 (24000MW), Gas (0MW) Solar power MW), large hydro strategy Off grid power mix (24000MW), Gas Off grid power consists of will be minigrid (15000MW), gas with Hybrid solar minigrid (5 million SHS). (10000 MW), (27950MW), Rooftop PV CCS (130000MW) standalone (10000 (27500 MW), Standalone Sustainable MW), rooftop PV Off grid power PV (27500MW), small Power Energy for All (10000MW), and consists of Hybrid hydro (3500 MW) Action Agenda. small hydro solar minigrid (3500MW). (2500MW), Rooftop T&D losses: 2030 (8%), PV (5000 MW), 2060 (5%). Total power Total power Standalone PV generation capacity by generation capacity (2000MW), small 2060 is 250 GW (100% by 2050 is 250 GW hydro (3500 MW) renewable with nuclear (share of grid energy). 86.6%) Carbon capture can capture 80% of carbon emissions by 2030, and 100% carbon emissions by 2060. Total power generation capacity by 2060 is 250 GW (58% from Gas CCS) 152 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 3: Key Policy Assumptions Supporting the GHG Emission Scenarios for the various Sectors Sectorial-based key policy assumptions Detailed Consideration Supporting Sectors Current Policy Program Gas Economy Renewable Energy Scenario (Blend of Scenario Scenario NDC and ETP) Access to Clean Efficient household Efficient household Efficient household and Affordable technologies replace technologies will technologies will replace Energy (SDG 7) 80% of inefficient replace 100% of 100% of inefficient household inefficient household household technologies by National Gas technologies by technologies by 2060. 2060. Expansion Project 2050, and 100% Residential and building replacement by Share of clean cooking Share of clean cooking Revised NDC 2060. (45.2% in 2030, and (50% in 2030, and 95% in 90% in 2060). 2060). Energy Transition Clean energy will Plan account for more Urban: Clean fuel Urban: Clean fuel share than 80% of cooking share comprises of comprises of electricity energy by 2050, electricity (47.9%), (86.6%), LPG (10.4%), from 59% in 2030. LPG (52.1%). Mode of natural gas (3%). Mode of lighting: grid (78.6%), lighting: grid (77%), off-grid Urban: Clean fuel off-grid (10.4%), solar (1.7%), solar (21%), others share comprises of (11%). (0.3%) electricity (23.7%), natural gas (3.3%), Rural: Clean fuel share Rural: Clean fuel share solar thermal (8%), comprises of comprises of electricity and LPG (65%) electricity (20%), LPG (80.4%), LPG (19.5%), (79.9%), natural gas natural gas (0.1%) Rural: Clean fuel (0.1%) share comprises of electricity (22.7%), natural gas (0.1%), LPG (77.2%) The share of energy The share of energy at The share of energy at Services in 2060 comprises 2060 is electricity 2060 comprises of grid of electricity (48%), (40%), LPG 53%, electricity (60%), off-grid LPG (49%), kerosene kerosene (2%), electricity (26%), LPG (8%), (1%), charcoal (1%), charcoal (1%), and kerosene (2%), charcoal and wood (1%). wood (4%) (2%), and wood (2%) 153 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 3: Key Policy Assumptions Supporting the GHG Emission Scenarios for the various Sectors Sectorial-based key policy assumptions Detailed Consideration Supporting Sectors Current Policy Program Gas Economy Renewable Energy Scenario (Blend of Scenario Scenario NDC and ETP) Energy intensive Energy intensive Energy intensive industry industry (cement) industry (cement) has (cement) has a share of has a share of 94.5% a share of 94.5% of 94.5% of the industry: of the industry. the industry: Share of Energy from grid electricity, Industry Share of natural gas natural gas with CCS, off-grid, natural gas, fuel oil with CCS (48%), electricity, Charcoal, and wood are 17, 10, 21, 5, electricity (35%), LPG, and wood are and 47, respectively, by LPG (0.01%), and 57%, 40%, 0.3%, 0.1% 2030. By 2060, energy wood (16.99%) by and 2.6%, share will be 50, 25, 25%, 2060. respectively, by 2060. respectively, for grid electricity, off-grid, and natural gas. 154 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 3: Key Policy Assumptions Supporting the GHG Emission Scenarios for the various Sectors Sectorial-based key policy assumptions Detailed Consideration Supporting Sectors Current Policy Program Gas Economy Renewable Energy Scenario (Blend of Scenario Scenario NDC and ETP) National gas By 2060, 43% of By 2060, 50% and 20% By 2060, 50% and 20% of expansion passengers shift to of passenger vehicles passenger vehicles to shift program buses, while 40% of to shift to buses and to buses and three passengers shift to three wheelers, wheelers, respectively. Revised NDC motorcycles and respectively. three-wheelers. Electric vehicles account for Electric, CNG and 80% of all passengers’ cars Electric vehicles will ethanol vehicles to by 2060, while ethanol replace 85% of cars replace 45%, 45% and powered cars replace 20% and buses by 2050. 10% of gasoline fuel of passenger cars. cars and taxis by 2060. 15% of LDV to run While 45%, 20%, 25%, 60% of diesel buses are to on CNG and 85% to and 10% of diesel be replaced with electric run on electricity. buses will be replaced vehicles, and 40% by Transport with electric, natural ethanol buses. Electric and 15% of HDV will run gas, ethanol, and ethanol powered on LPG and 85% to hybrid buses, motorcycles and three run on electricity by respectively, by 2060. wheelers to substitute 2050. Energy intensity of gasoline motorcycles and domestic aviation three wheelers. 50% of rail to be decreases by 0.1% and powered by share of ethanol Road: 20% of cars comply electricity by 2050. (10%). with EURO IV standard. Gasoline powered LDV is Energy intensity of replaced by 55% electric road vehicles and 45% ethanol powered decreases by 0.2% LDV. annually. Rail: 40% electric Car sharing, cycling, and walking will Car sharing, cycling, and reduce passenger walking will reduce kilometers by 16% passenger kilometers by 16% 155 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060

Appendix 3: Key Policy Assumptions Supporting the GHG Emission Scenarios for the various Sectors Sectorial-based key policy assumptions Detailed Consideration Supporting Sectors Current Policy Program Gas Economy Renewable Energy Scenario (Blend of Scenario Scenario NDC and ETP) New National Enteric Enteric fermentation Enteric fermentation will Forestry Policy fermentation will will decrease by 3%, decrease by 5%, 8% and decrease by 2%, 4%, 5%, and 6% 10%, respectively, by 2030, 2.5%, 4%, and4.5% respectively, by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. respectively, by 2040, and 2060. Other Other emissions decrease 2030, 2040, and emissions decrease by by 1.2% annually. AFOLU 2060. 1.5% annually. Reforestation with carbon sink of 12.5 and 70 million Reforestation with a Reforestation with metric tonne, respectively, carbon sink of 7.9 carbon sink of 35.3 by 2030 and 2060. million metric and 126.3 million tonnes by 2060 metric tonne, respectively, by 2030 and 2060. Emissions from Emissions from waste Emissions from waste Waste waste decrease by decrease by 2% decrease by 5%, 10%, 15%, 2%, annually. annually. and 20%, respectively, by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. Gas flaring: 2030 Gas flaring: 2030 (0%) Gas flaring: 2030 (0%) Oil and Gas (0%) Gas process loses: Gas process losses: Fugitive emission 2060 (5%) reduction (oil) 95% 2060 (2.5%) from 2050 Fugitive emission reduction (oil and gas) Fugitive emission reduction Fugitive emission 98% from 2060 (oil and gas) -10% growth reduction (gas) 81% per year *The values presented are exogenous capacity; however, the LEAP model was constrained to meet up power demand endogenously 156 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT Adoption Develop National Education X X X Federal National and program on climate smart Ministry of Policy on implementa agriculture Agriculture Agriculture tion of Develop/implement national X and Rural climate- guidelines on different developme smart aspects of agricultural nt (FMARD) agricultural practice such as Climate practices. smart irrigation scheme, etc Educate a minimum of 5 X X X National Ag million farmers on climate ricultural Te smart agricultural practices chnology & including but not limited to Innovation efficient irrigation system, Policy-Natip agricultural biotechnology on ethanol production, used of National improved seedling, Improved Agricultural use of manure and fertiliser, Policy improve methods of crop AFOLU cultivation, etc. National Agricultural Extension Policy Adoption of efficient food X X X Agriculture storage and processing promotion methods to reduce food loss Policy in the supply chain. Agricultural commodity storage policy Promotion Ensure effective X X X National of implementation of the Diary policy nationwide National diary Policy, animal National livestock National ranching transformation plan, etc livestock practice for transformat improved ion plan enteric Undertake massive education X X Agricultural fermentatio of herders and other livestock manpower n keepers. developme nt and 157 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT manageme training nt policy Provision of adequate land for X X ranching activities Adoption of sustainable X X X livestock management Put in place regulations to X discourage open grazing. Mainstream climate X X X adaptation into dryland management plans and strategy. Promotion Discourage deforestation X X X New of National afforestatio Forestry n and Policy reforestatio n activities National to increase REDD+ Nigeria’s Strategy forest cover to 25% by National 2060. Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy Establishment of forest X X X reserves Promote community forestry X X X Plant a minimum of 25 X X X million trees per year using indigenous and fast-growing tree species Adoption of Conserve mangrove forest X X X nature- Effective land management X X X based practices solutions for Planting of covered crops in X X X sustainable plantation. 158 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT ecosystem Restore degraded lands X X manageme nt. Reduced Develop guidelines for X X forest and sustainable agricultural carbon practices losses from Undertake capacity building X Agriculture to educate farmers on sustainable agricultural practices Enforce laws and regulations X X X to stop bush burning, charcoal production and unsustainable mineral exploitation Supporting the reduction of X X X food, fibre, and forest products with high GHG emissions in the production chain Increased Generate Concentrated Solar X Federal National renewable Power (CSP) to 15,000MW Ministry of Energy energy mix and Solar PV utility to 45,000 Power Policy to a MW by 2060. minimum of Generate Biomass to X Renewable Energy for 60%. 20,000MW by 2060. Energy all: Solar Energy Generate renewable energy X Commission power from waste to 15,000MW by strategy 2060 Generate large hydro to X Sustainable 24,000MW by 2060 Energy for Generate Wind to 25,000MW X All Action by 2060. Agenda. Generate Nuclear energy to X 20,000MW by 2060 159 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT Encourage massive private X X X National sector investment in the local policy on production of solar Renewable equipment and other Energy and equipment for power Energy generation from biomass, efficiency wind, and nuclear technology Introducing X X X National and/or Deploying significantly policy on accelerating improved gas-fired combined Renewable the uptake cycle thermal power plants Energy and of carbon with carbon capture Energy capture technology to at least 58% of efficiency storage the thermal power technologie generation technologies by National s 2060. Energy Policy Petroleum Industry Act Accelerating the X X X National standardisation of CCS to Energy improve its cost, scheduling, Policy and safety, enabling its widespread implementation Petroleum using best global practices. Industry Act Promotion Adopt a decentralised X X X National of smart approach for all the policy on grid renewable energy mix Renewable technology generation and distribution Energy and to reduce Energy transmissio efficiency n and Support micro-financing of X X X National distribution solar equipment to SMEs and Policy on losses by at households small, micro least 5% by and 2050. medium enterprises 160 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT Promote research and X X X National development in renewable policy on energy use and production Renewable Energy and Energy efficiency Accelerated Develop a national X Renewable adoption of programme to implement the Energy energy adopted Energy Management Master Plan efficiency System (EnMS) for all sectors. (REMP) and energy manageme National nt measures Renewable across all Energy and sectors. Energy (Building Efficiency sector in Policy particular) (NREEP) Off-grid Electrificati on Strategy Multi-year Tariff Order (MYTO) Enforce energy efficiency X X X National standards, building codes, building appliance efficiency standard code of and labeling Nigeria Building Energy and Efficiency code Provide an incentive for X X X National manufacturers to develop a Policy on standardised energy efficient small, micro product and medium enterprises 161 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT Improved Replace inefficient household X Energy access totechnologies by 100% to Transition clean and efficient household Plan affordable technologies by 2060 energy in Share of clean cooking to 50% X X National residential in 2030, and 95% in 2060. Renewable buildings Ensure about 90% of X X Energy and households in the urban areas Energy use electricity from clean Efficiency sources Policy Ensure about 80% of X (NREEP) households in the rural areas use electricity from clean sources Massive Developing appropriate X X X National penetration technologies for the Renewable Building of utilisation of alternative Energy and renewable energy sources for Energy energy households use Efficiency technologie Incentivie private sector X X X Policy s for participation in supporting (NREEP) household households in acquiring the use. appropriate renewable New energy technology Electricity Provide subsidised renewable X X X Act 2023 energy materials and equipment Energy Develop a pricing structure X X X Transition and feed in tariff (FiT) for the Plan household renewable energy equipment Encouraging the construction X X X of green buildings through the development/implementatio n of relevant policies. 162 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT Use of Encourage significant X Federal National carbon deployment of improved gas- Ministry of Energy capture fired thermal power plants Petroleum Policy technologie with carbon capture Resources s in the technology to at least 58% of Petroleum value chain the power generation Industry Act of oil and technologies by 2060. gas sector Accelerate the X standardisation of CCS to improve its cost, scheduling, and safety, to enable its widespread implementation using best global practices. Elimination Adopt industry standards to X X of gas reduce GHG emission while flaring by also minimizing natural 2030. resource loss from the flaring Oil and Gas of associated gas that occurs during production Deploy advanced fugitive X X X emission curtailment technologies to achieve at least 85% of methane leakage by 2050 and progressively to 98% by 2060 in oil and gas sector through effective regulatory measures. Promote reduction in X X X methane leakage by adopting methane detection technologies Incorporate Adopt renewable energy to X X X renewable support oil and gas value energy chain operations technology Retrofit existing assets for a X X X into oil and low-carbon development gas production platforms to meet at least 50% 163 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT operations’ energy demand by 2050. Using gas in Provide infrastructure to X X X the form of support production for LPG as a nationwide collection, transition transmission, and distribution fuel in the of gas. short term Sensitization on clean cooking X X X to facilitate initiative the Provide incentives to X X X establishme industrial and domestic nt of low- consumers to shift to gas carbon usage energy Support standardisation and X X X developme rapid adoption of nt to technologies across the address the sector nation’s clean cooking deficit. Developme Use pre and post combustion X X X Federal Industrial nt and capturing processes Ministry of Policy of adoption of Industry Nigeria Capture carbon from X X X Carbon Trade and industrial process stream Capturing, Investment Adoption of CCUS X Utilisation technologies in the cement Industry and Storage industry by at least 57% by (CCUS) 2060 technologie Adopt CCUS technology in X X X s. other industries such as Rice Mills (parboiling of rice), fertiliser blending (Chemical Mixers), Aluminum Smelting and Iron & Steel (Blast Furnaces) among others. Reduce clinker-to-cement X X ratio by blending with mineral 164 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT substitutes and using lower- carbon alternative fuels to fire the kiln. Creation of Undertake feasibility survey X micro- and map industrial clusters distribution Determine the energy X systems by requirement for various creating clusters clusters Connect the clusters to X within areas various nearby non-grid for easier power generation system energy utilisation. Immediate Use oil palm residues and rice X X shift to the husks to supply heat for co- use of processing of limestone into bioenergy clinkers in industrial sources production processes. Adopt energy efficiency X X practices in industries such as converting to energy bulbs, turning off appliances, etc Adoption of Support industries to adopt X X cleaner cleaner energy sources for energy industrial production through sources in subsidies and other forms of production incentives. processes Incorporating the renewable X X energy mix in the industry, at least by the energy mix in the power sector Using gas as a transition fuel X X X in the short term to facilitate the establishment of low- carbon energy development to address industrial needs. T r a n s p o rt Wide Implement the national plan X X Federal/Sta National Ve a ti o n adoption of on electric vehicles (EVs), tes Ministry hicular 165 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT electric National Vehicular Emission of Emission vehicles Control Programme (NVECP) Transportat Control (EVs) Encouraging and promoting X X X ion Programme the use of electric and ethanol (NVECP) vehicles by at least 55% and National gas 45%, respectively, of light- expansion duty vehicles by 2060. program The promotion of at least 40% X X X National of the buses fully electric, Transport about 80% of the remaining Policy road passenger vehicles electrified, and 40% of buses powered by ethanol before 2060. The use of electric and X X X ethanol-powered motorcycles and three- wheelers to substitute gasoline motorcycles and three-wheelers 100% by 2060. Provide charging X X X infrastructure along major roads and designated public places Provide incentives for private X X investment in EVs Encourage Encourage and promote the X X National gas the massive use of electric vehicle to expansion deployment dominate the transport program of CNG and sector LPG Accelerate the X X Presidential vehicles up implementation of the Compresse to 2060. Presidential CNG initiatives on d Natural national adoption of CNG- Gas fueled vehicles. Initiative (PCNGI) Strengthen the adoption of X X X Solid waste Circular Economy principles, manageme such as sharing, leasing, nt Policy reusing, repairing, 2018 166 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT refurbishing, and recycling existing materials and products as long as possible Adopt Make city centres ‘Car-less’, X X measures to by encouraging the use of reduce or Mass transit options such as avoid travel waterways, rail, and air Focus on Non-Motorised X Transport (NMT) in the planning, design, managing and budgeting stages of transport projects Use of animal-cart in rural X X areas Encourage pedestrianization X X X as a green and environmentally friendly means of transportation Adopt up to date Transport X X X Information Technology for efficient management of transport infrastructures. Shift to low- Improve vehicle standards, X X X carbon inspection, and enforcement mode of relevant regulations for behavioral change Develop and implement eco- X X friendly transportation policy and system. Embark on public X X sensitization on safe driving and proper road use Working with the private X sector to transition to soot free transport Adoption of Develop and implement X Federal National Waste the circular National and sub-national Ministry of Solid waste economy circular economy policies and Environmen manageme approach in action plans t/States nt 2018 waste Environmen 167 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT manageme Promote and develop X X X tal nt. grassroot awareness Protection campaigns that strive to Agency inform and influence more sustainable consumption patterns, products design that efficiently utilise materials to reduce emissions. Promote collaboration with X X X private sector to upscale and finance circular economy. Encourage the conversion of X X X organic /agricultural waste to animal feeds. Encouraging and promoting X X X waste-to-energy technologies to support the power sector. Implementation of X X X regulations in collaboration with relevant stakeholders for use of secondary products (energy and materials recovered from waste) by industry and other private sectors. Improve Adequate implementation X X X NESREA NESREA Act waste and enforcement of policy on manageme waste management nt process Setup of paper, plastic, glass X X National and metal separation system Policy on in all state capitals and other waste municipalities. manageme Adopt the use of renewable X X nt energy in cooling storage systems to reduce waste and loss of food items Promote waste reduction X X X through efficient material designs 168 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT Embark on Adopt greenhouse gases X X X Federal National measures to accounting Ministry of Council for reduce Industry Climate carbon Trade and Change footprint Investment (NCCC) Improving Install energy efficient X X X Federal National Energy pumping system Ministry of Renewable Efficiency water Energy and and Energy resources Energy Production Efficiency in the Federal Policy extraction, Ministry of (NREEP) distribution, Metering of water X X X Environmen National and consumption t water policy treatment Water distribution, system X X X Water Services of water monitoring and regulation National Reduction of leakage, X X X Water metering errors and water Resources theft Policy National Action Plan (NAP) increase Share of Nigerians X with Access to water supply services from 68% to 90% Adopt sustainable X X X National technologies and engineering Renewable for energy conservation in Energy and water production and usage Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEP) Implementa Adopt sustainable water X X X National tion of management practices Water nature- resources based Policy solutions in Restore natural floodplains X X X National aquatic and riparian habitats to Water ecosystem absorb carbon and create 169 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060

Appendix 4: Sectoral Mitigation Measures Action Plan for Implementation Perform Responsibili Relevant Timeframe ance Sector Measure Activity ty Policies indicator ST MT LT manageme suitable environments for resources nt in aquatic life. policy improving Restore degraded wetlands X X X the national and coastal habitats National carbon sink. REDD+ Strategy Adoption of Encourage the use of X X X National nature- bioremediation in aquatic Policy on based pollution control and the solutions in management to reduce the environmen water emission of carbon and other t pollution GHGs into the environment. control and manageme nt Establish Introduce reforms in X effective establishment, management, and operation and maintenance sustainable of water supply and Public sanitation schemes and Private services Partnership Deploy a sustainable energy X for the for water and sanitation provision of facilities and infrastructure climate - Continuation of the X X X smart water Partnership Expansion for supply and Water Sanitation and Hygiene sanitation (PEWASH) facilities and infrastructu re 170 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT A AFOLU 1 Provision of accurate and timely X X Federal National Policy on weather forecasting Ministry of Agriculture 2 Adoption of drought-tolerant and X X Agriculture early maturing crop varieties and Rural National Agricultural 3 Diversifying livelihoods to improve X X X Developme Technology & income. nt (FMARD) Innovation Policy- 4 Increasing and upgrading crop X NATIP storage facilities 5 Control of pests, insect, and birds X X X National Agricultural 6 Growing more cover crops like X X Policy potatoes and melon to protect soil from erosion. National Agricultural 7 Intensive livestock keeping X X X Extension Policy 8 Enhancing agricultural extensio X X X services New National 9 Irrigation X X X Forestry Policy 10 Flood Control X X X National REDD+ 11 Drainage X X X Strategy 12 Weather insurance X X B Water Resources 1 Integrated water resource X X X Federal National Renewable management at the watershed Ministry of Energy and Energy level Water Efficiency Policy 2 Improved exploitation of X X X Resources (NREEP) groundwater 3 Extend and improve water supply X X X Federal National water policy and water management Ministry of infrastructure. Environmen National Water 4 Water efficiency and improved X X X t Resources Policy water demand management 5 Gender–responsive, socially X X X National Action inclusive. and resilient water and Plan (NAP) sanitation infrastructure. 171 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 6 Small–scale earth dams for multi- X X purpose use 7 Inter- and intra-basin water X X X transfer 8 Strengthened river basin X X X governance and scaled-up regional cooperation. 9 Increased the network density of X X the hydrometric network for early warning forecasting. Strengthened capacity for smart water management C Coastal Marine Environment 1 Hard protection, or “gray X X Federal United Nations infrastructure” including dikes and Ministry of Convention on the static seawalls, groins and artificial Blue and Law of the Sea headlands, detached Marine (UNCLOS) breakwaters, and artificial reefs. Economy 2 Creation of artificial land above X X X the sea, such as Eko Atlantic in Lagos State, to create new buildable areas. 3 Soil protection, including dune X rehabilitation and sand/beach nourishment, including beach nourishment that projected accommodation, which considers projected SLR. 4 Ecosystem-based Adaptation X X X (EbA) includes the restoration of salt marshes, mangroves, oyster beds, coral reefs, and other coastal ecosystems to mitigate marine flooding and coastal erosion. 172 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 5 Managed retreat, which involves X X rethinking living on the coast by accepting that certain coastal infrastructure, neighbourhoods, or even cities will need to relocate entirely. D Forest Ecosystem and Grassland 1 Strengthened forest management X X X Federal National REDD+ and increase in tree cover through Ministry of Strategy gender-responsive socially and Agriculture environmentally responsible and Rural National Agricultural reforestation and restoration Developme Policy initiatives. nt (FMARD) 2 Community-based Forest X X X New National resources management Forestry Policy 3 Functional forest inventory X X X system 4 Afforesting with suitable X X X indigenous and exotic species 5 Strengthened partnerships among X X CSOs, communities, and the private sector to restore community and private natural forests, plantations, and nurseries. 6 X X Improved management of forest reserves and enforcement of low- impact logging practices 7 X X Alternative livelihoods to reduce unsustainable resource use and loss of biodiversity. 8 Forests resources accounting X X X 9 Climate change adaptation X X X mainstreamed into forest management. 173 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 10 Reduce ecosystem vulnerability X X X and ecosystems’ exposure to extreme events. 11 Enhanced financing for the X X implementation of the REDD+ Strategy and the Great Green Wall Initiative E Human Health 1 Improved understanding of the X Federal National Health health impacts of climate change Ministry of Policy in Nigeria Health 2 Strengthening disease prevention X X National Health and treatment systems. Promotion Policy 3 Wastewater and solid waste X X management facilities 4 Wide adoption of practices and X X X technologies that reduce exposure and health impacts from extreme heat. 5 Early warning and health X X X surveillance programs. 6 Strengthened surveillance X X X programs for monitoring human health under a changing climate. 7 Climate-resilient health X X X infrastructure. 8 Community hygiene and general X X X cleanliness in all sectors 9 Improved primary healthcare X X X delivery system to effectively respond to climate-induced diseases and pandemics F Energy 174 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 1 Strengthened infrastructure X X X Renewable National Energy against storm events or wind. Energy Policy 2 Protection of infrastructure X X X Commission against flooding with dykes or Energy for all: Solar berms or construction of new power strategy infrastructure in Areas vulnerable to flooding, salinity, or storm events 3 Improved sustainability of X X X charcoal production through enforcement of regulations against illegal charcoal production activities and improved charcoal production technologies 4 Diversification of household and X X X community energy generation sources to reduce reliance on biomass as an energy source and thus reduce pressure on natural systems (e. g. solar energy or small-scale hydro-power, generation) 5 Increase in the level of rural X X electrification in line with the Government’s objective of 75 % electrification rate by 2020 and full electrification by 2040 to reduce reliance on biomass as an energy source and increase reliance on use of sustainable, climate-proofed large scale generation sources where possible. 175 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 6 X X Climate proofing of existing and future hydro-power, infrastructure through the implementation of structural and/or non-structural measures G Transport 1 Strengthening existing X X X Federal/Sta National Vehicular transportation and tes Ministry Emission Control communications infrastructure of Programme (NVECP) for climate-resilience Transportati 2 Provision of diverse X X X on National Gas transportation options, such as Expansion program pedestrian, bicycle, and transit routes 3 Mainstream adaptation into X X X transport planning, decision- making and implementation 4 Improved public and private- X X sector investment in climate- proofed and climate-resilient transport infrastructure 5 Diversification of transport modes X X X with appropriate adaptive capacities 6 Include increased protective X X X margins in the construction and placement of transportation infrastructure (i.e., higher standards and specifications for greener technology) 7 Undertake risk assessment and X X X risk reduction measures to increase the resilience of the transportation and communication sectors. 176 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT H Industry 1 Promoting a value-chain-based X X X Federal Industrial Policy of approach for climate-resilient Ministry of Nigeria industry. Industry 2 Harnessing the potential of clean X X X Trade and technologies for climate-resilient Investment industrial development. 3 Fostering innovation and X X X strengthening entrepreneurship to develop new capacity for wealth creation whilst safeguarding the environment and promoting sustainable climate-resilient industrial development. 4 Fostering the diffusion of financial X X X tools aiming to reward resilient enterprises or enterprises belonging to resilient industrial clusters. 5 Promoting adaptation actions in X X X the industry sector, based on an ecosystem approach. 6 Developing green infrastructure X X X and payments for ecosystem services (PES) 7 Strengthening synergies among X X X adaptation measures and other environmental issues. 8 Increasing the awareness of X X industrial and financial operators about the effects (threats and opportunities) of climate change on industrial production 177 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 9 X X Defining opportunities for new green products and new green jobs related to the adoption of climate adaptation measures I Human Settlements 1 Assess the impacts of climate X X Federal change and raise awareness Ministry of among citizens. Housing and Urban Developme nt National Emergency Manageme nt Agency Federal Ministry of Humanitari an Affairs, Disaster Manageme nt and Social Developme nt 2 Expropriation and greening of X X abandoned lots in major cities 3 Create green and blue X X X infrastructure to reduce urban heat islands. 4 Green and cultural urban X X X corridors 5 Create infrastructure and pilot X X X projects to reduce the risk of flooding. 178 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 6 Implement a program to X X X strengthen and extend the support network for vulnerable communities. 7 City center development projects X X 8 Social housing program X X X 9 Crisis preparedness and X X X management plans K Vulnerable Groups 1 Create awareness among national X X National New national gender and sub-national disaster and Agency for policy emergency management the institutions Prohibition National Gender 2 Strengthen the capacity of X X X of Policy relevant disaster and emergency Trafficking National Policy on management agencies using in Persons Child/Forced Labour gender awareness tools to (NAPTIP) enhance implementation National Action Plan capacities. Federal Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Developme nt 3 Adapt government programs and X X plans at national and sub-national levels to better address the impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups. 4 Adapt public service facilities, X X X including school buildings, to withstand storms and excess heat. 5 Intensify the immunization of X X X children and youth to provide protection against diseases that are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. 179 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 6 Retrain health workers to X X appreciate emerging climate change challenges within the context of immunization delivery and other comprehensive healthcare delivery. 7 Encourage faith-based and civil X X society organizations, as well as the private sector to provide social welfare programs and other support to address the climate- change-induced needs of vulnerable groups L Extreme Weather Events 1 Greater collaboration with X X Nigerian Nigeria Climate policymakers towards an open- Meteorolog Change Policy source database of standardised, ical Agency Response and publicly available data to raise (NIMET) Strategy (NCCPRS) awareness of the need for climate adaptation. National Nigeria 2 Develop better climate risk X X Emergency Environmental Policy models which can help form a Manageme more accurate picture of future nt Agency weather patterns as well as the (NEMA) risks they might pose to communities. 3 More accurate risk data and X X modelling to help inform policymakers on hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities. 4 Weather insurance indexing and X X innovation, particularly digitalization, to increase the impact of risk finance and insurance on resilience M Environment and Security 1 Strengthen capacity to anticipate X X Nigeria National Policy on disasters and impacts on internal Police force Environment migration and security. 180 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 2 Strengthen capacity to respond X X Nigeria through information and Arms Forces awareness, training, equipment, Nigeria plans and scenarios and Security and communication. Civil 3 Strengthen individual and X X Defence community-based emergency Corps preparedness and response (NSCDC) capacity in climate change high- risk areas. 4 Strengthen rural infrastructure X X and the availability of jobs to discourage migration. 5 Integrate climate change into the X national and regional security strategies. 6 Strengthen the capacities of X X security agencies and institutions to mainstream gender-based perspectives and climate risk considerations in security planning and operations. 7 Strengthen capacity at national X X and sub-national levels to anticipate and respond to disasters and impacts on internal migration and security. 8 Develop robust projections in X X terms of climate change impacts for the formulation of appropriate policies towards reducing vulnerability. 9 Promote open and constructive X X dialogue for coordinated multilateral mechanisms to address climate risks and the development of effective policy responses and strategies on climate change-related security issues. 181 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060

Appendix 5: LT-LEDS Action Plan – Adaptation Measures Performance Timeframe Responsible Policy Measures Indicators ST MT LT 10 Institutionalise inclusive, X X participatory decision-making process to reflect the voices of women, girls, and youth as ecosystem managers under increasing insecurity. 11 Develop and implement strategies X X that allow for the better management of climate variability and lessen its impact on livelihoods and agricultural production to enhance security. 12 Strengthen rural infrastructure X X and promote sustainable rural livelihoods. 13 Minimise the existence of X X ungoverned spaces. 14 Integrate migration and human X X displacement issues in national climate change planning 182 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060

Appendix 6: Proposed Outline for the Finance Strategy for Nigeria’s LT-LEDS • Background • Strategy • Characteristics of strategy • Principles for the Financing Strategy • Methods • Proposed strategy sections • Section 1. LT-LEDS Investment estimation and its financing gap • Section 2. Prioritization of mitigation and adaptation levers to be financed for the implementation of LT-LEDS • Section 3. A stocktake of financing barriers, financing sources, and financing instruments for prioritised sectors • Section 4. The role of carbon pricing mechanisms for the long-term financing of mitigation and adaptation goals (i.e., Emission Trading Schemes and Carbon Taxes) as well as other innovative financing mechanisms • Section 5. Opportunities for a more strategic deployment of public finance resources, for adaptation and mitigation measures, that can scale up private finance. • Section 6. The strategy and recommendations for its operationalization • Timeline • Government focal points and relevant stakeholders for the Financial Strategy 183 | P a g e NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 184 | P a g e