Malawi's Updated Nationally Determined Contributions - July 2021

2017. Agriculture accounted for by far the largest share of the total (5.07 million tCO 2e, 54% of total), followed by Energy (2.34 million tCO2e, 25% of total) and waste (1.67 million tCO2e, 18% of total). Emissions from industrial processes represented just 0.24 million tCO2e, equivalent to around 3% of total emissions in 2017 (mainly associated with calcination CO 2 emissions from minerals production). Emissions from livestock represented the largest emissions source category, followed by emissions from managed soils in crop production. Following these agriculture sources, major sources included CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use in transport, which accounted for 11% of the total, and methane emissions from unmanaged waste disposal site (dumps), which accounted for 13% of the total. Under a BAU emissions scenario, total emissions excluding FOLU are forecast to increase by more than three times by 2040, rising from 9.3 million tCO2e in 2017 to 34.6 million tCO2e in 2040. This outlook reflects assumptions around the growing contribution from fossil fuels to national emissions, arising from increasing demand for thermal power generation and transport services. At the same time, despite potential for increased productivity, agricultural output in expected to be more limited, growing broadly in line with trends over the past decade. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION VIII A detailed assessment of identified GHG mitigation options for Malawi estimates a total emissions reduction potential of around 17.7 million tCO2e in 2040 against the BAU scenario emissions in the same year of 34.6 million tCO2e, equivalent to a reduction of 51 per cent. Based on the analysis, mitigation measures have been grouped according to two different contributions:  Unconditional contribution: A reduction of 6 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2040; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 2.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) in that year. This is an unconditional target, based on domestically supported and implemented mitigation measures and policies.  Conditional contribution: An additional reduction of 45 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2040; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 15.6 million tCO 2e in that year. This represents an additional targeted contribution, based on the provision of international support and funding. The combined unconditional and conditional contribution is therefore a 51 per cent reduction in GHG emissions compared to BAU in 2040, expressed as a single year target. The coverage of the contribution includes the three main greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The sectoral scope of this contribution covers all emissions sources described in the IPCC 2006 Reporting Guidelines, including emissions from the categories of energy; industrial processes and product use (IPPU); waste; and agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) but excluding sources from forestry and other land use (FOLU). These latter sources may be included within future contributions, subject to improved data availability and ongoing development in the accuracy of their quantification within the national GHG inventory. For this updated NDC, an indicative emissions reduction contribution has instead been made. This has been estimated at 59.8 million tCO2e of reductions through a range of FOLU interventions covering an area of up to 2 million hectares (Ha), of which 22 per cent is unconditional and 78 per cent conditional on international support. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION IX Figure ES-1 NDC emission reduction scenarios (excl. FOLU) Adaptation Malawi‟s adaptation contribution prioritises adaptation interventions and develops sector- level performance indicators and targets. As shown in the table below, ten strategic adaptation options have been identified relating to the three pillars, namely: (i) institutional framework, (ii) knowledge, technology and financing and (iii) resilience of the most vulnerable, which support three main objectives: (i) promote an enabling environment to facilitate Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) mainstreaming, (ii) improve capacity for data and information management and sharing, and access to technology and financing for adaptation, and (iii) plan and implement adaptation actions toward an increased resilience of the most vulnerable Malawians. Table ES-1 Strategic adaptation actions Objective Pillar Strategic Adaptation Actions Adaptation actions Promote Institutional 1. Establishment of the NAP‟s mandate enabling framework institutional arrangements for environment to the multi-sector coordination facilitate CCA of climate change actions, mainstreaming including the definition of its composition and mandate MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION X Objective Pillar Strategic Adaptation Actions Adaptation actions

2. Testing and institutionalization NAP‟s implementation of mechanisms to integrate Definition of guidelines to CCA into the next “National integrate CCA into sectoral Development Plan” or planning and budgeting equivalent and sectoral planning instruments, including the annual sectoral budgets and guidelines Improve the Knowledge, 3. Development and Research programme on capacity for data technology and implementation of a research climate resilient technologies, and information financing programme on climate change including industry and drought management impacts and CCA actions tolerant and fast-growing and sharing, and vegetal species access to

4. Implementation of a capacity- CB at national and district technology and building plan and integration levels to use the guidelines financing for of CCA into curricula CB on EWS and data adaptation downscaling CB on Wash interventions CB on wildlife and tourism management CB on aquaculture and cage farming CB on diagnose, prevention and control of climate-sensitive diseases and malnutrition Integration of forestry, livelihoods and environmental management in curricula 5. Implementation of the Public campaigns on water communication plan conservation measures Campaigns on hygiene and sanitation

6. Operationalization of an Elaboration of overarching M&E framework recommendations for climate covering the NDC and M&E in the scope of the NDC potentially the NAP, SDGs and Sendai Framework

7. Elaboration and Preliminary estimates of costing implementation of a resource of the actions and measures mobilization plan included in the NDC Plan and Resilience of 8. Elaboration of NAPs for Elaboration of NAPs for implement the most priority sectors agriculture, biodiversity and adaptation vulnerable ecosystems, fisheries, health, actions toward infrastructures and housing, an increased tourism and water resources resilience of the most vulnerable Malawians MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION XI Objective Pillar Strategic Adaptation Actions Adaptation actions

9. Development of CCA Development of simplified planning tools tested in methodologies as a basis to particularly vulnerable assess risks and identify communities, demonstrating community-based adaptation an integrating CCA approach options and measures to in various sector include in local CCA plans and budgets Design of local EWS

10. Elaboration of a portfolio of Effective and efficient EWS CCA priority actions for the Accessible and harmless water key sectors aligned with Blooming biodiversity and sectoral planning and ecosystems and eco-tourism budgeting, using nature- based solutions and Smart agriculture, livestock and ecosystems-based fisheries adaptation Climate-proofed infrastructures, buildings, and energy systems Healthy and protected people The updated NDC describes a sectoral framework of measures to enhance Malawi‟s climate adaptation and resilience, along with a set of indicators to monitor and evaluate their progress, aiming at increasing the resilience of its people, ecosystems and economy. This is fully aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and subsequently with Agenda 2030 and the sectoral planning process, along with the framework for the National Adaptation Plan. Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework The Paris Agreement contains several additional MRV requirements which, when taken together with the existing UNFCCC arrangements, provide an enhanced basis for Malawi‟s international reporting requirements relating to its updated NDC. The enhanced transparency framework (ETF) established by the Paris Agreement requires an MRV system to transparently report progress made towards the targets defined in Malawi‟s NDC and to track the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions, as well as the use and results of means of including climate finance. The system should also capture broader non-GHG impacts resulting from implementation of measures for the purposes of evaluating their contribution to achieving broader development goals. A framework has therefore been developed which provides a basis for Malawi to monitor and report on its NDC in a way which is consistent these requirements whilst also being well- aligned with existing procedures and arrangements. The framework describes the institutional arrangements for tracking the progress of the NDC and reporting on its implementation at both an international and domestic level. Alongside Malawi‟s NDC Implementation Plan, the framework indicates the institutions, fora, roles and responsibilities proposed to guide and support implementation of MRV of the NDC at the national level MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION XII including policy and strategic decision levels. Supporting this process, a comprehensive framework of sectoral indicators has been developed according to which Malawi can monitor and evaluate its progress in meeting its NDC targets through 2040. Means of implementation To fully implement the mitigation and adaptation contributions described in this document, Malawi will require support in the form of finance, capacity building, and technology transfer. The total estimated cost for Malawi‟s identified NDC mitigation measures through 2040 is estimated at around 41.8 billion USD for mitigation measures, and around 4.5 billion USD for adaptation measures, representing a combined funding requirement of 46.3 billion USD. Of this total, around one third is estimated to be required over the next decade (2020-2030), and two thirds in the subsequent decade (2030-2040). For both mitigation and adaptation combined, unconditional measures account for around 24% of the total estimated funding requirements, and conditional measures around 76%. Table ES-2 Estimated NDC funding requirements (mitigation and adaptation) USD million 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2040 Total Mitigation measures Unconditional contribution 1,664 1,949 5,362 8,974 Conditional contribution 2,550 5,393 24,866 32,808 Total 4,213 7,341 30,228 41,782 Adaptation measures Unconditional contribution 573 738 817 2,128 Conditional contribution 656 818 945 2,419 Total 1,230 1,556 1,762 4,547 Combined total 5,443 8,897 31,990 46,329 Challenges for climate finance in Malawi include insufficient funds, a limited domestic budget for the implementation of climate actions, and the limited involvement of private sector investment in environment and climate change activities. In response to these factors, Malawi is currently preparing a resource mobilization strategy which will identify sources of finance and strategies to fund and support the prioritised measures identified in this document. The Government of Malawi will continue to commit significant resources to climate change relevant strategies, both in relation to mitigation and adaptation. However, there is clearly also a need for increased levels of bilateral and multilateral financial support. Malawi intends to meet its conditional contribution through the use of climate finance and international MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION XIII market mechanisms where appropriate, building upon its experience of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other existing market mechanisms. These include the potential involvement in international cooperative approaches under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. As outlined in this updated NDC, technology transfer and capacity building will also be required to fully implement Malawi‟s mitigation and adaptation contributions. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION XIV Contents FOREWORD ........................................................................................................... i PREFACE .............................................................................................................. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................... iii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................... iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................... vii 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Outline of this document ...................................................................................... 2 2 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES ................................................................... 3 3 MALAWI’S CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE ............................................... 7 4 NDC REVISION PROCESS ......................................................................... 9 4.1 Mitigation ............................................................................................................... 9 4.2 Adaptation ........................................................................................................... 12 5 MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION .................................................................. 13 5.1 Overview .............................................................................................................. 13 5.2 GHG emissions inventory ................................................................................... 14 5.3 Mitigation potential ............................................................................................. 18 5.4 Implementation plan ........................................................................................... 32 5.5 Funding requirements ........................................................................................ 45 6 ADAPTATION CONTRIBUTION ................................................................. 47 6.1 Overview .............................................................................................................. 47 6.2 Vulnerability and resilience ................................................................................ 47 6.3 Methodological approach ................................................................................... 52 MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION XV 6.4 Resilience and assessment of adaptation responses...................................... 53 6.5 Targets and indicators for resilience ................................................................. 61 6.6 Implementation plan ........................................................................................... 61 6.7 Funding requirements ........................................................................................ 84 7 MONITORING, REPORTING AND VERIFICATION FRAMEWORK ............. 86 7.1 Tracking the NDC target ..................................................................................... 86 7.2 Institutional arrangements ................................................................................. 87 7.3 Data provision ..................................................................................................... 94 8 MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................... 98 8.1 Finance needs ..................................................................................................... 98 8.2 Capacity building and technology transfer ...................................................... 100 REFERENCES ............................................................................................... 104 MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION XVI 1 Introduction 1.1 Background At the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reached an agreement to combat climate change and accelerate the actions and investments needed to achieve a sustainable low carbon future. The Paris Agreement entered into force in November 2016 following the universal adoption of the Agreement by Parties. Under the Agreement, developed and developing countries made individual commitments to transition toward a climate-resilient and low-emissions future. Importantly, the Agreement also acknowledges that achieving the ambitions of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require a collective and concerted action on climate change. Parties are required to undertake and communicate efforts to contribute to the achievement of these goals in the form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) communicated to the UNFCCC (Article 3). These include efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mitigation) as well as adapting to the effects of climate change (adaptation). Parties shall submit revised NDCs every five years, each representing a progression beyond the Party‟s current NDC and reflect its highest possible ambition, “as well as its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances”. The Paris Agreement also requires that in communicating their NDCs, all Parties shall provide the information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of their NDCs and established an Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) which specifies how Parties must report on progress in implementing mitigation and adaptation measures, and on support provided or received. Parties have been requested to submit their updated and revised NDCs to the UNFCCC Secretariat ahead of the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to be held in Glasgow in

2021. In this context, the Republic of Malawi is submitting this updated NDC. The contributions described in this submission build upon Malawi‟s existing first NDC, and reflect subsequent work supported by the NDC Partnership in developing quantifiable mitigation and adaptation targets, an NDC implementation plan and a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework for tracking the NDC. This updated NDC represents a more detailed assessment of mitigation and adaptation measures in Malawi informed by in-depth analysis, improved information and data, and an extensive stakeholder-driven consultation process. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 1 1.2 Outline of this document This document describes Malawi‟s updated first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for mitigation and adaptation for the period 2015 to 2040. It is structured as follows:  Section 2 describes Malawi‟s national circumstances.  Section 3 presents Malawi‟s approach to climate change and a brief summary of its policy response through national, regional and global efforts to tackling climate change  Section 4 summarises the NDC revision process covering both the mitigation and adaptation contributions.  Section 5 presents Malawi‟s contribution to mitigation, including a description of GHG emissions mitigation options across key sectors and their reduction potential and funding requirements against a business-as-usual baseline to 2040, according to unconditional and conditional measures.  Section 6 summarises Malawi‟s vulnerability to climate change and sets out a framework of proposed measures relating to adaptation and resilience.  Section 7 described a measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework for implementing and tracking the mitigation and adaptation measures contained in this NDC, consistent with best practice and Malawi‟s reporting requirements under UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.  Section 8 outlines the means of implementation for the mitigation and adaptation measures contained in the NDC. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 2 2 National circumstances This section provides a brief overview of Malawi‟s national circumstances, including the country‟s vulnerability to climate change, its natural resources, and its key socio-economic characteristics.1 2.1.1 Vulnerability to climate change In Malawi, natural resources and the environment play a very significant role in influencing social and economic development at both household and national levels (GoM, 2016a). Approximately 80 percent of Malawians depend on renewable natural resources for their livelihoods, and the foundation of the national economy is primarily rain-fed agriculture. The success of many important sectors of the economy such as agriculture, water supply and sanitation, transport, tourism, industry, health and education relies on environment and natural resources to enhance their productivity. However, environmental degradation and climate change have emerged as major development issues that have adversely impacted on food security, water quality and energy security, thereby frustrating government efforts to improve the general livelihoods of both urban and rural communities. Scientific evidence in Malawi shows an increase in the frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades of extreme weather events (GoM, 2016a). Malawi is particularly vulnerable to floods, droughts and strong winds associated with tropical cyclones. Most of the drought episodes that Malawi experiences are caused by the El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, with serious impacts on crop and livestock production. Additionally, the country experiences long dry spells that occasionally disrupt the rainfall season and cause crop failure. The pattern of rainfall results in the seasonality of crop production, and forces farmers to stay idle during the dry season. Livestock productivity is highly constrained by lack of adequate feed and drinking water in the dry season (GoM, 2020). Over the past five decades, Malawi has experienced more than 19 major flooding events and seven droughts. In 2015, Malawi was affected by the worst floods in 50 years; the floods affected over 1 million people, displaced 230,000 people and killed 106 people, with another 172 people reported missing (GoM, 2020). The agriculture sector suffers the greatest losses as a result of climate change impacts (GoM, 2016a). Most smallholder farmers in Malawi are resource poor with very limited capacity to contain shocks arising from climate change. Food security remains a concern in many of the affected districts and agriculture production of crops and livestock continues to see only a limited increase in productivity over years because of vulnerability to climate change (GoM, 2020). Food shortages cause domestic grain prices to rise, resulting in 1 A more detailed description of Malawi‟s national circumstances is provided in the Third National Communication (TNC) to the UNFCCC. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 3 increased grain imports which erode the foreign exchange reserves with depreciating effects on the exchange rate, and divert resource reallocation from other productive sectors. As a result, prices of other food stuffs also increase, fuelling inflation with knock-on effects on interest rates and the macroeconomic outlook (GoM, 2016a). Economic modelling has estimated the direct overall costs due to climate change impacts equivalent to losing at least 5% of the country‟s gross domestic product (GDP) each year (GoM, 2016a). 2.1.2 Natural resources Malawi is endowed with abundant and diverse natural resources, which is a basis for sustainable economic growth and development (GoM, 2020). At the same time, the country‟s high dependency on these resources, many of which face challenges from degradation and overuse, increase the vulnerability of communities and ecosystems to the adverse impacts of climate change. The majority people in Malawi live below the poverty line. Under abject poverty, people are forced to heavily depend on natural resources for energy (fuel wood), food, construction material, medicine, and fodder. Poverty forces people to trade-off long term sustainable resources for short term consumption because they depend entirely on the existing natural resources. Of Malawi‟s total land area of 9.4 million hectares (ha) only around 31% is suitable for rain- fed agriculture at traditional level of management due to variations in topography, slope, rainfall, temperature, soil type and soil depth (GoM, 2020). This limited land resource base is heavily utilized and prone to environmental degradation, and therefore also highly vulnerability to climate change. Malawi‟s land resource base is particularly under threat from increasing human and livestock population pressures, and the expending agricultural production to marginal areas. Other factors that contribute to land degradation include: (i) insecure and unforeseeable property rights leading to open access exploitation for agricultural production, (ii) limited information on the costs of land degradation and the benefits of conservation, (iii) lack of access to credit for soil conservation and management practices, and (iv) poor agricultural production practices (GoM, 2020). Unsustainable use of natural resources impacts a range of important sectors. For example, the fisheries sector is one of the most economically important in Malawi, providing employment and contributing to food security for millions of rural poor Malawians. It provides about 70% of the animal protein and 40% of total protein intake for the majority of Malawians (GoM, 2020). Increasing population growth has however brought about great demand for fish for domestic consumption leading to an increase in the number of fishermen, localized fishing, and reduced fish catches. In recent years, fish landings have fallen dramatically due to overfishing and environmental degradation. Similarly, the overdependence on traditional biomass (wood, charcoal) and other fossil fuels to meet the country‟s growing energy needs are threatening Malawi‟s climate as forest resources are being depleted as carbon sinks (GoM, 2020). These important concerns are reflected in the choice of mitigation measures outlined in this nationally determined contribution. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 4 Malawi is blessed with abundant biodiversity and has diverse habitats and ecosystems including woodlands, montane grasslands, wetlands and fresh water bodies that harbour a rich variety of flora and fauna, including more than 5,000 plants and over 8,500 invertebrate species. Malawi‟s terrestrial ecosystems comprise forests, mountains and grasslands (GoM, 2020). The country has 87 forest reserves, five national parks, four wildlife reserves and three nature sanctuaries that were established to protect important wildlife populations, major water catchment areas, and landscapes of high aesthetic value and to preserve them for scientific and recreational uses (GoM, 2020). The greatest threat to biodiversity in Malawi is the unprecedented loss of habitats, fragmentation of species habitats and isolation of remaining communities due to unsustainable land use practices. Agriculture, urbanization, infrastructure development and human settlements are the major drivers of habitat loss and fragmentation in Malawi. The agriculture sector has been embroiled in the continuous cultivation of land in wetlands and riverbanks, encroachment into protected areas and cultivation on mountain slopes. Developmental activities have contributed to habitat loss through conversion of arable land, wetlands and forests for road construction, urbanization and human settlements. Damming of rivers for irrigation and water supply has also led to changes in ecosystems downstream (GoM, 2020). These challenges serve to further threaten Malawi‟s capacity to adapt to climate change impacts and provide an important context for the country‟s development and environmental policy priorities. 2.1.3 Socio-economic characteristics Malawi‟s population was 18.1 million in 2018 and has been growing at an average rate of around 2.8% per year since 2000 (UN DESA, 2019). According to the national Population and Housing Census 2018, around 18% of the population are located in urban areas and 82% in rural areas (NSO, 2019). The population density is 168 persons per km2, making Malawi one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The overall average life expectancy is about 48.5 years, which is below the average life expectancy for Africa which is estimated at 53 years (GoM, 2020). Malawi‟s economy is largely based on agriculture, with the sector supporting about 80% of rural people‟s livelihoods and contributing about 30% to gross domestic product (GDP) and 80% of export revenues (GoM, 2020). The performance of the other sectors is dependent on agriculture which is largely rainfed and hence highly vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Malawi‟s GDP was estimated at 6,917 USD million in 2018 (World Bank, 2020), representing an average GDP per capita of 381 USD, one of the lowest in the world and also in Africa. As well as being highly vulnerable to the increasing impacts of climate change, Malawi has been severely affected by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that spill-overs from the sharp global slowdown as well as the economic disruption in the region have weighed on international trade, tourism, remittances, MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 5 investment, and consumption. The national lockdown introduced to contain the pandemic has also impacted the near-term economic outlook, which has deteriorated significantly, with large uncertainties surrounding the duration and spread of the pandemic (IMF, 2020). Before COVID-19, economic growth was forecast at around 5% in 2020, with strong agricultural production, post-cyclone reconstruction, investments to build resilience to climate change, and improved electricity generation. Over the medium-term, greater access to finance, additional resilience investments, enhanced electricity generation and irrigation (e.g., the Shire Valley project), crop diversification, and better telecommunications were anticipated to boost growth to just over 6% (IMF, 2020). Growth has since been expected to fall to 1% percent for 2020 and to 2.5% in 2021, assuming it will take time for businesses to re-open after the lockdown ends and for trade flows to normalize. A gradual recovery is expected thereafter, with growth averaging 6.4% during 2022-25 (IMF, 2020). MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 6 3 Malawi’s climate change response The Government of Malawi (GoM) is committed to taking urgent action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. As a Party to the UNFCCC, the country seeks to contribute to the ambitious goal of limiting temperature rise to 2oC with efforts to reach 1.5oC agreed under the Paris Agreement. Malawi ratified the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, and is line with the Paris Agreement submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2016 which became its first NDC in 2016. Given the challenges posed to its ongoing social and economic development, Malawi has taken significant strides towards addressing climate change. Through the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) (GoM, 2006), submitted to the UNFCCC in 2006, Malawi has identified sectors that are most affected by climate change including agriculture, human health, energy, fisheries, wildlife, water, forestry and gender. The Government has also developed a number of initiatives and processes to assist vulnerable communities and ecosystems to adapt and mitigate to both current and projected climate change impacts through increased adaptive capacity and resilience, enhanced carbon sinks, reduced GHG emissions, improved food security and sustainable economic development. These include the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), a National Climate Change Response Framework (NCCRF) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). Furthermore, Malawi has put in place a series of legislative sectoral frameworks and strategies to integrate environment and climate change management in socio-economic development activities, including through the Malawi Vision 2020, which was the country‟s previous overarching long term strategy to achieve middle-income status (GoM, 1998). Malawi has subsequently prioritised climate change, environment and natural resources management within the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS III) (GoM, 2018) and has integrated climate considerations within a wide range of sectoral policies and strategies. Most recently, climate change is embedded within Malawi 2063, which sets out the country‟s vision to become an inclusively wealthy and self-reliant industrialised upper- middle-income country by 2063 (GoM, 2021). In 2016, Malawi adopted the National Climate Change Management Policy (NCCMP) which provides strategic direction for the country's priorities for climate change interventions through six priority areas (GoM, 2016a):  Climate change adaptation;  Climate change mitigation;  Capacity building, education, training and awareness;  Research, technology development and transfer and systematic observation; MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 7  Climate financing; and  Cross-cutting issues (including gender considerations, population dynamics and HIV and AIDS) The NCCMP acts to guide implementation of critical climate change issues and strategies, including capacity building, education, training and public awareness, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), and adaptation and mitigation within agriculture, energy, industrial processes, waste management, forestry, water resources, and wildlife sectors. The Policy serves as the country‟s overarching reference document for policy makers in Government, the private sector, civil society, and donors concerning climate change as a priority development issue (GoM, 2016a). The updated NDC builds upon the NCCMP in its commitment to tackling climate change through the development of both mitigation and adaption responses, as well as other key national guiding documents including Malawi 2063, the Malawi Economic Growth Strategy (MEGS), and the Malawi Growth and Development Strategies (MGDS) III. The NDC also aligns with Malawi‟s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Framework, which the country developed in 2020 to guide efforts to develop its National Adaptation Plan with an effort to address climate change. The NAP Framework has built on the NAP Roadmap, validating and updating the vision, objectives and mandates for adaptation structures in the country. It reaffirmed the structure and approach for the NAP process, linking it to existing or planned policies, plans, strategies and legislation that will enable Malawi to address its medium- and long-term adaptation needs. The NAP stocktaking report prepared in 2016 served as a key foundation for the NAP Framework by reaffirming Malawi‟s readiness to proceed with the NAP process. Despite its status as a least developed country (LDC) with one of the lowest per capita emissions rates worldwide, Malawi believes in playing its part towards achieving the goals of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. The updated NDC therefore proposes an ambitious and wide-ranging set of measures which can significantly reduce Malawi‟s GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of economic development and emissions growth. The mitigation and adaptation contributions set out in this document are therefore considered to be both fair and ambitious in the context of Malawi‟s national circumstances. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 8 4 NDC revision process Malawi submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in October 2015 setting out its adaptation and mitigation goals to 2040. With the entry into force of the Paris Agreement in November 2016, the INDC formally became Malawi‟s first NDC. This updated NDC updates and strengthens the first NDC for both the mitigation and adaptation contributions, informed by improved data collection, in-depth technical analysis and extensive stakeholder engagement. In the case of mitigation, detailed sector- and project-based modelling has been undertaken to estimate the national mitigation potential and develop quantified conditional and unconditional contributions through 2040. This section provides a brief description of the revision process of Malawi‟s NDC for both the mitigation and adaptation components. 4.1 Mitigation 4.1.1 Business-as-usual (BAU) emissions forecasting The mitigation contribution contained in this updated NDC takes the form of a „baseline target‟. This is a deviation below a reference baseline (BAU) scenario in the absence of NDC measures, expressed as a relative reduction (%) between the mitigation scenario and the BAU scenario in 2040. This type of target requires estimating counterfactual projections of emissions based on a number of assumptions around what constitutes BAU (e.g. economic growth, population, planned policies and strategies). As described further in the next section, the development of the BAU scenario used in the updated Malawi‟s NDC has now been undertaken at a detailed sectoral level, drawing from extensive consultation with national sector experts and stakeholders. The modelling undertaken includes economy-wide drivers of activity (e.g. fuel use, waste generation) and emissions, such as economic and population growth, as well as sector-specific factors (e.g. power expansion plans, transport strategy plans, agricultural output levels). The projections also make use of regression analysis based on latest available data to better understand and inform relationships between certain forecast model parameters. The projections make use of the most recent information and data including recently available information sources such as e.g. national population projections, official power demand and generation projections, transport and vehicle survey data, official statistics, policy planning documents etc. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 9 4.1.2 Identifying and assessing mitigation measures Malawi‟s first NDC identified a wide range of mitigation measures within each of the country‟s key emitting sectors. However, these were not assessed for their GHG mitigation potential. The analysis used to develop this updated NDC has involved identifying a range of mitigation options from within each of the NDC sectors for further consideration and quantitative analysis by several teams of consultants. A bottom-up „long-list‟ was developed through close consultation with various stakeholders and experts. A modified „long list‟ was further refined, based on subsequent meetings held between the consulting teams, government officials and sector experts though late 2019 - early 2021. The projects identified in the NDC were re-assessed, as well as additional projects and programmes. In some cases, the details, and context, regarding many of the projects were found to have changed since the time of INDC submission. The „long list‟ of options identified thereby reflected a set of real projects and programmes under consideration, or having been studied, from within government departments and agencies. The identified measures provided the basis for the GHG emissions modelling described in the following section. This updated NDC reflects the use of in-depth technical and economic analysis of NDC measures. As is described further below, the measures were assessed by applying mitigation modelling and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) over the period to 2040 in order to determine their emissions reduction potential against the BAU scenario, along with their socio-economic costs and benefits, including investment requirements. Alongside other criteria and following discussions with relevant national officials, these results were used to inform the choice of which measures (or shares of measures) represent unconditional measures to be funded domestically and which are conditional on the provision of international support. 4.1.3 Consultation and coordination As noted above, the development of the analysis involved close consultation with government officials, experts and stakeholders. This was mainly undertaken on a sectoral basis through a list of agreed key government and expert focal points, in relation to collection of data and information as well as discussion and validation of projects, measures and modelling assumptions. The key focal points are shown below in Figure 4-1, along with their sectoral coverage, responsibility or area. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 10 Figure 4-1 Key focal points informing NDC mitigation analysis Because the measures identified for analysis were based upon existing studies, sources and official documents which have applied multi-criteria evaluation and extensive in-country stakeholder consultation to arrive at prioritised measures (i.e. INDC, TNC, NAMAs and various sectoral policy documents), a revised bottom-up evaluation of all potential mitigation options was not undertaken. Instead, NDC measures were identified from existing sources within Malawi and subsequently classified as conditional and unconditional by each of the consultant teams drawing upon the technical analysis, existing information and discussions with focal points. These were provided for review and validation by government departments and other stakeholders. Following completion of the technical analysis, covering the BAU development and mitigation analysis, a validation workshop was held with national experts and government representatives alongside a series of regional and local dissemination and stakeholder events. The following key items were highlighted for review, discussion and validation:  Choice of mitigation measures for inclusion in the NDC  Review and validation of the technical assumptions used to develop the GHG reduction and cost estimates across each key sector (by sector departments and experts)  Review and validation of the estimated allocation of unconditional and conditional contributions to the identified measures (by sector departments and experts)  Discussion of choices and approaches to target-setting (types, scope, periods etc) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 11 4.2 Adaptation The adaptation component of this NDC is an upgrade from that of the 2015 INDC. While the initial selection of adaptation measures was based on priority sectors for the country as identified in the previous INDC and confirmed in national policies, programmes and plans, this NDC took a further step to refine the measures by reflecting on desired outcomes – an approach advanced by the National Resilience Strategy (2018-2030) that allows for cross- sector collaboration in planning and delivery. A special outcome on strengthened governance has been proposed to support coordinated implementation of the measures, which was found to be a major challenge in the delivery of the previous INDC. The NDC comes with an improved Monitoring and Evaluation framework with an elaborated structure for reporting progress nationally and internationally. The framework is aligned with the UN SDGs through linkage to SDG indicators, and to the national vision (Malawi 2063) through linkage with the vision‟s pillar and enabler provisions and indicators. The framework also includes engendered measure-specific indicators capable of tracking the extent of gender and vulnerability integration across sectors. The adaptation component of the analysis was developed in close coordination with the Adaptation Expert Working Group (EWG). The prioritised adaptation measures and actions identified from the work were coupled with a proposed set of indicators to measure and evaluate their progress towards targeted outcomes, along with cost estimates. The Adaptation EWG and other national stakeholders were requested to review and validate the set of measures, its proposed M&E framework and the cost estimates, and as far as possible to provide inputs. As a result of this process, changes to choice of indicators were made and taken forward into the subsequent stage of work (NDC Implementation Plan and M&E Framework). MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 12 5 Mitigation contribution 5.1 Overview Malawi‟s mitigation contribution takes the form of a reduction in GHG emissions relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) emissions baseline over the period to 2040. The contribution comprises of two components:  Unconditional contribution: A reduction of 6 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2040; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 2.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) in that year. This is an unconditional target, based on domestically supported and implemented mitigation measures and policies.  Conditional contribution: An additional reduction of 45 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2040; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 15.6 million tCO2e in that year. This represents an additional targeted contribution, based on the provision of international support and funding. The combined unconditional and conditional contribution is therefore a 51 per cent reduction in GHG emissions compared to BAU in 2040, expressed as a single year target; this is equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of up to 17.7 million tCO2e in 2040. The coverage of the contribution includes the three main greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The sectoral scope of this contribution covers all emissions sources described in the IPCC 2006 Reporting Guidelines, including emissions from the categories of energy; industrial processes and product use (IPPU); waste; and agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) but excluding sources from forestry and other land use. These sources may be included within future contributions, subject to improved data availability and ongoing development in the accuracy of their quantification within the national GHG inventory. For this updated NDC, an indicative emissions reduction contribution has instead been made. This has been estimated at 59.8 million tCO2e of reductions through a range of forestry and land use interventions covering an area of up to 2 million hectares (Ha), of which 22 per cent is unconditional and 78 per cent conditional on international support. This section describes Malawi‟s nationally determined contribution to mitigation. It describes the emissions sources covered by the contribution according to the latest national GHG inventory year, the development of BAU emissions projections by sector to 2040, the expected contribution from mitigation measures according to each sector, and the associated funding requirements expected for both the unconditional and conditional components. The section includes information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) in relation to the development and scope of the target(s), comprising MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 13 both the BAU scenario and emissions reductions associated with implementation of the mitigation measures. 5.2 GHG emissions inventory Malawi‟s Third National Communication (TNC) (GoM, 2020) provides a detailed breakdown of the national GHG emissions inventory for the year 2010. However, the TNC also provides emissions estimates up to 2017 based on data developed by the national GHG inventory team in accordance with the IPCC 2006 Guidelines (IPCC, 2016). This year was therefore adopted as the most recent data year for the revised BAU modelling across all emitting sectors. GHG inventory data in the year 2017 is summarised in Figure 5-1, and shown in greater detail in Table 5-1 according to IPCC reporting categories for all GHG emissions sources. Total emissions excluding FOLU are estimated at 9.33 million tCO2e for 2017. Agriculture accounted for by far the largest share of the total (5.07 million tCO 2e, 54% of total), followed by Energy (2.34 million tCO2e, 25% of total) and waste (1.67 million tCO2e, 18% of total). Emissions from IPPU represented just 0.24 milliontCO2e, equivalent to around 3% of total emissions in 2017 (mainly associated with calcination CO2 emissions from minerals production). Emissions from livestock, predominantly methane from enteric fermentation in cattle, represented the largest emissions source category, followed by N2O emissions from managed soils in crop production. Following these agriculture sources, major sources included CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use in transport, which accounted for 11% of the total, and methane emissions from unmanaged waste disposal site (dumps), which accounted for 13% of the total. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 14 Figure 5-1 GHG emissions by source excl. FOLU in 2017, million tCO2e Sources: Malawi GHG Inventory data; TNC (GoM, 2020); EC (2021); UNDP (2021) Note: due to decimal rounding within Energy, values do not sum to 100% Table 5-1 GHG emissions by source in 2017 IPCC Categories GgCO2e MtCO2e

1.A.1. Energy industries 694 0.69

1.A. Fuel Combustion 1.A.2. Manufacturing Industries 194 0.19

1. Energy Activities 1.A.3. Transport 1052 1.05

1.A.4. Other Sectors 392 0.39

1.B. Fugitive Emissions 1.B.1. Solid Fuels 10 0.01

2.A.1. Cement production 145 0.14

2. IPPU 2.A. Mineral Industry 2.A.2. Lime production 96 0.10

2.A.4.a. Ceramics production 0 0.00

3.A.1. Enteric Fermentation 2137 2.14

3.A. Livestock

3.A.2. Manure Management 1496 1.50

3.B.1. Forest land -9033 -9.03

3. AFOLU

3.B.2. Cropland 1589 1.59

3.B. Land

3.B.3. Grassland 262 0.26

3.B.5. Settlements 25 0.02 MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 15

3.B.6. Other land 188 0.19

3.C.1. Biomass burning 12 0.01

3.C.3. Urea application 95 0.09

3.C. Aggregate Sources 3.C.4. Direct N2O Emissions from soils 1123 1.12 and Non-CO2 3.C.5. Indirect N2O Emissions from 0 0.00 Emissions Sources on soils Land 3.C.6. Indirect N2O Emissions from 72 0.07 manure management

3.C.7. Rice cultivation 134 0.13

3.D Other 3.D.1 Harvested Wood Products -130 -0.13

4.A. Solid Waste

4.A.2. Unmanaged Disposal Sites 1073 1.07 Disposal

4. Waste 4.C. Incineration and

4.C.2. Open Burning 128 0.13 Open Burning

4.D. Wastewater

4.D.1. Domestic 474 0.47 Treatment Discharge Total emissions: Energy 2342 2.34 Total emissions: IPPU 240 0.24 Total emissions: Agriculture (3A + 3C) 5069 5.07 Total emissions: Waste 1675 1.67 Total emissions excluding FOLU 9326 9.33 Total emissions: FOLU (3B + 3D) -7098 -7.10 Total net emissions including FOLU (emissions minus removals) 2228 2.23 Sources: Malawi GHG Inventory data; TNC (GoM, 2020); EC (2021); UNDP (2021) Figure 5-2 compares Malawi‟s total GHG emissions against other East African countries on a per capita basis, and also emissions intensity of economic output i.e. emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The data show that Malawi has very low per capita emissions - around 0.5 tCO2e - compared to other countries within the region. This figure is around one fifth of the regional average and just thirteenth of the world average, reflecting Malawi‟s predominantly agricultural economy based on subsistence farming with relatively low fossil fuel consumption. The data also show that Malawi has a relatively low emissions intensity – around 1.5 tCO2e per „000 (thousand) USD GDP – which is also around one fifth of the regional average. Although per capita GDP is relatively low in Malawi at around 360 USD 2, the low intensity value mainly reflects the importance of the relatively non-energy intensive and low emitting agriculture sector to the national economy. 2 Based on population data provided by UN DESA (2019) and real GDP data provided by World Bank (2020). MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 16 Figure 5-2 Regional comparison of Malawi per capita and per GDP emissions Source data: USAID, 2015 Note: Emissions exclude FOLU MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 17 5.3 Mitigation potential 5.3.1 Methodological approach Malawi‟s NDC mitigation targets are based on an in-depth assessment of the country‟s mitigation potential against a BAU baseline scenario through 2040. This has been undertaken through a process that integrates an analysis of Malawi‟s existing sectoral and climate policy framework, the generation of qualitative information through consultation with government officials, experts and stakeholders, quantitative modelling of mitigation options and scenarios, and multi-criteria assessment to determine conditional and unconditional contributions. In so doing, the analysis builds on the work undertaken in support of Malawi‟s INDC submission in 2015 and other more recent studies including e.g. GHG mitigation estimates made in the context of NAMAs and the Third National Communication (TNC) to the UNFCCC (GoM, 2020), and a variety of other official data and information sources. The mitigation analysis was undertaken according to there key steps:  Step 1: Develop BAU emissions forecasts: Based on the national GHG inventory emissions in key sector categories (Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, IPPU, Waste, Agriculture, and Forestry and Other Land Use; AFOLU)3 develop a revised BAU baseline scenario through 2040.  Step 2: Undertake GHG mitigation and economic assessment: Identify and collect information on mitigation options across sectors based on the INDC measures and discussions with in-country officials and experts, and quantify their emissions reduction potential through 2040 compared to the BAU scenario. Quantify economic costs and benefits (including estimated investment requirements) to enable cost- benefits analysis (CBA) and calculation of GHG abatement costs and investment.  Step 3: Model GHG reduction pathways: Model alternative GHG pathways based on the assessed mitigation options against the BAU baseline through 2040 to quantify the emissions reduction potential across NDC sectors and associated costs and investment needs. These steps are described further below. 5.3.2 Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario This section summarises the choice and development of a BAU emissions baseline for Malawi. The projection provides the reference case against which the emissions reduction 3 According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) GHG reporting guidelines (IPPC, 2006); for the purposes of the NDC analysis, AFOLU is separated into Agriculture and FOLU; FOLU was excluded from the projection modelling. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 18 potential from specific mitigation actions has been estimated under alternative GHG reduction pathways (described further below). The BAU modelling approach is based on detailed bottom-up activity and GHG projections developed for each emitting sector through 2040. These reflect a number of assumptions determining changes in inter alia energy supply and demand, agricultural output, waste generation, and technology uptake. In so doing, existing government projections and plans were assessed, and experts consulted within relevant ministries, agencies and organisations. The BAU projections were undertaken by separate consulting teams and separate technical reports have been prepared for these providing details on the projections made. Given the very large degree of uncertainty when accounting for emissions and removals from forestry and other land use (FOLU)4, as well as challenges in data collection and management, this category has been excluded from the BAU analysis. As part of Malawi‟s REDD+ activities, a national forestry reference level (FRL) has been prepared but at present this is provisional only and subject to revision. For similar reasons, Malawi‟s mitigation contribution relating to FOLU is treated separately from other emitting sources which can be more robustly quantified, reflecting international guidance and current practice. It is recognised that the development of a counterfactual baseline projection to 2040 involves an inherently large degree of uncertainty. It is therefore proposed that a dynamic baseline be adopted allowing the BAU emissions to be updated by Malawi over the NDC implementation period, to be communicated within each BTR. The basis upon the dynamic baseline will be updated during the NDC commitment period will include key technical factors such as the availability of revised official national projections for GDP growth and population, any errors being rectified; and updates to reflect continuous improvement in emissions inventories (e.g. apply the latest IPCC guidelines), emissions factors and data sources. It is proposed that fundamental and/or methodological changes are not made within the period to the main target (covering all sources excluding FOLU) and that the FOLU contribution in future NDC periods be refined/adjusted based on additional technical assessments and the finalised national forestry reference level (FRL).5 The bottom-up sectoral projections are aggregated below to produce an economy-wide forecast of BAU emissions through 2040 (Figure 5-3 and Table 5-2). This represents the BAU baseline projection of all emitting sectors, excluding FOLU, against which the contribution from NDC mitigation measures can be quantified. At an aggregate level, total emissions are forecast to increase by more than three times over the 2017-2040 period, rising from 9.3 million tCO2e in 2017 to 34.6 million tCO2e in 2040. The graph shows that this represents a slightly increased rate of growth compared to that seen during the period 2010- 4 FOLU is interpreted as including emissions and removals under categories 3B (Land) and 3D (Other) within the IPCC category AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use). 5 GoM (2019b) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 19 2017, closely reflecting the assumptions around economic and population growth, as well as future expansion of grid-based fossil power generation. The most rapid growth is forecast within energy use (energy industries, transport, other energy use and fugitive emission), which expands its share of total emissions from 25% in 2017 to around 42% in 2030 and 57% by 2040. The share of emissions from waste generation (wastewater and solid waste) falls slightly from around 18% in 2017 to 12% in 2040, whilst the share of emissions from agricultural sources (crop management and livestock) declines from 54% to 29% over the same period. Emissions from IPPU remain at around 2% of the total. These trends clearly indicate the growing contribution from fossil fuels to national emissions, arising from increasing demand for thermal power generation and transport services. At the same time, despite potential for increased productivity, agricultural output in expected to be limited, growing broadly in line with trends over the past decade. Figure 5-3 BAU GHG emissions projection to 2040, all sectors excl. FOLU Source: Carbon Counts (2021), EC (2021) and UNDP (2021) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 20 Table 5-2 BAU emissions projection to 2040, all sectors excl. FOLU GHG emissions (MtCO2e) 2017 2020 2030 2040 Energy 2.35 2.82 8.18 19.83 IPPU 0.24 0.28 0.45 0.74 Agriculture 5.07 5.67 7.74 9.87 Waste 1.67 1.94 2.88 4.18 Total 9.33 10.71 19.25 34.61 Source: Carbon Counts (2021), EC (2021) and UNDP (2021) Figure 5-4 BAU GHG emissions in 2040, all sectors excl. FOLU Source: Carbon Counts (2021), EC (2021) and UNDP (2021) 5.3.3 Mitigation assessment A detailed assessment of GHG mitigation measures for Malawi was next undertaken to quantify the contribution within the updated NDC and the associated investment needs. The analysis was undertaken according to a four-step process: MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 21  Step 1: Identifying mitigation options: A comprehensive list of potential emission reduction projects and measures was first developed through a thorough review of national documents and discussions and consultation with government officials, sector experts and other stakeholders.  Step 2: Assessing the potential: The identified options were then assessed in terms of their mitigation potential through 2040 compared to the BAU reference scenario, and their socio-economic costs and benefits by undertaking cost-benefit analysis (CBA).  Step 3: Evaluating the measures: The quantitative analysis was complimented by a broader assessment in order to determine and validate which measures can be implemented through domestic efforts („unconditional‟ measures) and which will instead require international support and finance („conditional‟ measures), including through international market-based approaches e.g. under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.  Step 4: Alternative GHG emissions pathways: Based on the analysis undertaken, the economy-wide mitigation potential through the period to 2040 was modelled against the BAU baseline. Two basic NDC mitigation scenarios were modelled, covering implementation of (a) all NDC measures; and (b) domestic measures only. Each of these steps is described further below. Identifying mitigation options The first step of the assessment involved identifying a range of mitigation options from within the each of the NDC sectors for further consideration and quantitative analysis. A bottom-up long-list was developed through close consultation with various stakeholders and experts, based on the following key sources:  Malawi‟s INDC (GoM, 2015a)  Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) for Malawi (GoM, 2015b)  Sectoral Technical Needs Assessments (TNA) for Climate Change Mitigation  Malawi‟s Third National Communication (TNC) to the UNFCCC (GoM, 2020) Additional mitigation measures were also reviewed, including those identified from the latest sectoral plans, programmes and projects (e.g. national forestry strategies, electricity generation system planning, transport planning, municipal waste drainage and sanitation master plans). Information was collected primarily through discussions with the agreed focal points within the relevant ministries, departments and other organisations. The resulting long-list was refined on these discussions and follow-up meetings with government officials and sector experts through August 2020 to February 2021. As part of this process, the measures identified in the INDC were re-assessed along with additional projects and programmes. In some cases, the details, and context, regarding some of the MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 22 projects were found to have changed since the time of INDC submission in 2015. The long- list thereby reflects a set of real projects and programmes under consideration, or which have been studied by government officials, sector experts and donor partners. As such, it draws upon a rich source of national information gathering, and in-country and international expertise. A total of 33 separate measures were identified for quantitative mitigation assessment. Assessing the potential Figure 5-5 summarises the estimated annual emissions reduction potential in 2040 for the mitigation measures modelled. The pie charts indicate the relative contribution made from projects within the key sectors of Energy (covering electricity and heat generation, manufacturing, transport, other energy use and fugitive emissions), Waste, IPPU and Agriculture against the base case BAU projected emissions described above. The estimated potential from the forestry sector (FOLU) is presented separately from these emitting source sectors further below. Descriptions of each of the measures are given in the summary Implementation Plan presented further below. The total mitigation potential is estimated at around 17.7 million tCO2e in 2040 compared to base case BAU emissions in the same year of 34.6 million tCO2e. According to the analysis, mitigation measures identified within the energy sector accounts for by far the largest share of total potential at 85%, followed by agriculture (9% of total), waste (5%), and IPPU (1%). Within energy use, increased use of renewables and clean coal technology to meet increasing energy demand combined dominate the mitigation potential. Significant emissions reduction potential exists across each of the key sub-sectors. The application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to future grid-based thermal power plants from 2030 onwards represents the largest share of the identified GHG reduction potential, with almost half of all sectoral mitigation by 2040. This is followed by large-scale grid hydropower with over a quarter of the total potential. Other measures within electricity and heat generation including the use of high efficiency ultra-super critical coal-fired, large-scale grid based solar PV and efficient charcoal production contribute around 18% of the total. Emissions reductions arising from modal shift and low carbon fuels in the transport sector are also considered to be potentially significant, together contributing around 10% of the estimated energy sector mitigation potential by 2040. Within agriculture, soil conservation measures – which include conservation or zero tillage and crop residue and rotation practices – account for almost half of the sector‟s feasible mitigation potential. The bulk of the remaining mitigation potential includes measures to reduce enteric fermentation emissions from livestock, including improved livestock husbandry and the potential introduction of new species to replace local herds. Within waste, the most significant potential is identified within energy utilisation measures such as landfill gas recovery and to a lesser extent direct waste-to-energy (WtE) plants. Mitigation potential from IPPU sources is by comparison relatively limited, with the majority MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 23 of emissions reductions arising from increased use of rice husk ash (RHA) blending and earth stabilised blocks (ESB) to reduce clinker and cement demand; over the longer term, the use of emerging low carbon clinker processes may also be feasible. Figure 5-5 Estimated GHG mitigation potential in 2040 from all measures excl. FOLU Source: Carbon Counts (2021), EC (2021) and UNDP (2021) Within forestry and other land use (FOLU), the most significant drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Malawi are the expansion of agriculture and settlements, and unsustainable fuelwood extraction. Under its REDD+ program, Malawi is seeking to maximize potential emission reductions by implementing targeted measures and activities that will lower net emissions by lowering rates of deforestation, lowering rates of forest degradation from unsustainable fuelwood harvesting, and enhancing carbon stocks through afforestation and reforestation. Four key areas of intervention were identified for quantitative assessment and inclusion within the NDC: MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 24

1. Afforestation (protective forests, woodlots and urban forests)

2. Agroforestry (wood, fruit and fodder)

3. Sustainable forest management (including REDD+)

4. Riparian restoration These measures are closely aligned with a number of national policies including the National Forest Policy, Malawi‟s REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) Strategy, the National Forest Landscape Restoration Strategy (NFLRS), and the National Charcoal Strategy and National Climate Change Investment Plan. In total, the identified measures represent a very significant implementation of additional forestry activities on over one half of a million hectares (534,478 ha) of national land over the coming decade. If scaled up with international support, it is estimated that this could be increased to just under 2 million ha, in line with estimated scaled-up potential to 2030 as outlined in the NFLRS.6 The associated net emissions removals calculated from the FOLU sector through 2040 are shown below. The net emissions reduction potential from afforestation and sustainable forestry management, which includes REDD+, can be seen to be particularly significant; taken together the measures are estimated to offer around 40 million tCO2e of net removals through the NDC period, or two thirds of the total estimated potential of 59.8 million tCO2e. 6 Note that although National Forest Landscape Restoration Strategy identifies a total of 7.5 million Ha of land (80% of Malawi land area) for restoration potential, this is considered a total technical potential; furthermore around half of this relates to agricultural practices (assessed under the Agriculture sector) while some practices have highly uncertain mitigation outcomes which have not been quantified. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 25 Figure 5-6 Proposed land areas for FOLU mitigation measures (hectares, ha) Figure 5-7 Estimated net reductions from FOLU mitigation measures through 2040 MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 26 Evaluating the measures Economic analysis indicates that many of the identified projects will require significant financial support. Developing country Parties to the UNFCCC are asked to identify the „means of implementation‟ relating to their NDC mitigation measures, including the scale of international support required. In this context, Malawi has developed its NDC contribution according to two different components:  Unconditional contribution: Those mitigation measures and policies which will be implemented „unconditionally‟ through domestic efforts alone (e.g. funded within committed national policy plans and actions); and  Conditional contribution: Additional mitigation measures which could be implemented, but only conditional upon the availability of international support (including funding and other types of support from donors, climate finance and potentially carbon markets). This approach requires classifying each of the mitigation measures (or a share of its full implementation potential) as either an „unconditional‟ or „conditional‟ action. Multi-criteria evaluation provided a basis for grouping the mitigation measures accordingly. In so doing, the following broad considerations were also used to help guide the choices:

1. Costs and investment levels: Higher cost projects and those requiring significant up-front investment levels are typically considered more suitable to international support given national budget and resource constraints.

2. Inclusion within existing national policies and sector plans: Several projects and measures are already included within Malawi‟s domestic climate policy response and budgeted for within sector plans: these are therefore be viewed as domestically committed.

3. Suitability to international support: Measures are more or less suited to existing and emerging forms of support (e.g. under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement), both in terms of project types and their likelihood to demonstrate real and measurable, and additional, mitigation outcomes. Based on consultations with experts and staff within government departments, an estimated partition of conditional and unconditional support was developed for each of the identified NDC measures (Table 5-3Error! Reference source not found.). Table 5-3 Unconditional and conditional NDC mitigation measures Mitigation measure Conditional Unconditional Grid hydropower 100% - Grid solar 100% - ENERGY Small scale solar PV/SHS 100% - Grid wind power 100% - High efficiency coal plant 100% - MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 27 Efficient charcoal production - 100% Carbon capture and storage 100% - Power factor correction 100% - Modal shift: passenger 70% 30% Modal shift: freight 50% 50% Ethanol blending 50% 50% Biodiesel blending 90% 10% Efficient charcoal stoves - 100% Efficient wood stoves - 100% Efficient tobacco curing - 100% Conservation tillage - 100% Cement blended with RHA 100% - IPPU Earth stabilised blocks 100% - Low carbon clinker 100% - Fertiliser and manure management 40% 60% Crop residue and rotation 50% 50% AGRICULTURE Improved rice management 70% 30% Improved livestock husbandry 40% 60% Improved farm management 10% 90% Conservation tillage 50% 50% Improved livestock and breed management 70% 30% FOLU Forestry measures (average) 57% 43% Landfill gas utilisation 100% - WASTE Waste-to-energy (WtE) plants 100% - Waste-water treatment and re-use 100% - Alternative GHG emissions pathways Figure 5-8 illustrates the emission projections for the BAU baseline and two alternative NDC mitigation scenarios covering implementation of (a) all NDC measures; and (b) domestic measures only. The associated values are shown in Table 5-4. The graph shows emissions excluding FOLU forecast to grow significantly under the BAU projection from 9.3 MtCO2e in 2017 to 34.6 MtCO2e in 2040. According to the alternative GHG pathway which implements the domestically supported unconditional mitigation contribution, it is estimated that by 2040 emissions would instead rise to around 32.6 MtCO2e, representing a reduction against BAU of around 6%. The second mitigation scenario, showing the total mitigation potential from both domestic and conditional mitigation, sees emissions increasing by a much reduced rate over the period, to around 16.9 MtCO2e, equal to a reduction of around 51% by 2040 against the same baseline. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 28 Figure 5-8 NDC emission reduction scenarios against BAU (excl. FOLU) Table 5-4 NDC emission reduction scenarios against BAU (excl. FOLU) Scenario 2017 2020 2030 2040 Total emissions (MtCO2e) BAU 9.33 10.71 19.25 34.61 Domestic contribution 9.33 10.70 18.07 32.56 All NDC measures 9.33 10.68 12.78 16.92 GHG reduction relative to BAU Domestic NDC measures - <1% 6% 6% All NDC measures - <1% 34% 51% The BAU and NDC mitigation scenarios are summarised in Figure 5-9 below, which also shows the contribution of each emitting sector to the total estimated potential based on the technical assessments of all mitigation measures. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 29 Figure 5-9 NDC emission reduction scenarios (excl. FOLU) A particular feature of the forestry and land use (FOLU) sector is data uncertainty and the large variability for carbon (C) stocks and C stock changes when certain carbon pools are measured. Average uncertainty ranges that are associated with estimates of the level of emissions and removals from the sector are relatively high (32 per cent) compared to other sources such as fossil fuel combustion (1 per cent).7 Furthermore, net emissions and removals from FOLU can show very significant variations over a given period. For these reasons, a separate target for Malawi‟s FOLU sector has been proposed within the NDC. For this updated NDC, this is presented as a provisional contribution subject to further analysis and finalisation of the national FRL.8 Reflecting key sector policies such as the National Forest Landscape Restoration Strategy (NFLRS), National Forest Policy and REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) Strategy, the indicative FOLU contribution is defined in terms of land use (hectares, Ha) for each identified measure but with estimated net GHG emissions reductions also provided for additional clarity and transparency. Given uncertainty levels and annual variations associated with carbon stocks and removals, the estimated GHG 7 Figures from study of EU-15 countries (see Iverson et al, 2014 in Herold and Böttcher, 2018). 8 It is expected that the finalised FRL will be presented in the next NDC for use as the baseline reference against which Malawi‟s FOLU target(s) can be assessed. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 30 reductions are presented as a GHG volume (tCO2e) through the NDC period rather than for a single end target year. These are shown as conditional and unconditional target values as summarised below in Figure 5-10. At present, Malawi‟s FRL is provisional only and so the estimated net emissions reductions measures arising from additional FOLU interventions through 2040 are not quantified in relation to the FRL. Figure 5-10 NDC emission reductions for FOLU to 2040 Table 5-5 NDC emission reduction scenarios for FOLU to 2040 Scenario 2015-2040 Share of total Total area (million ha) Unconditional contribution 0.5 28% Conditional contribution 1.4 72% Total 1.9 100% Estimated net emissions reductions (MtCO2e) Unconditional contribution 13.3 22% Conditional contribution 46.5 78% Total 59.8 100% MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 31 5.4 Implementation plan The following tables present a summary of Malawi‟s NDC Implementation Plan for each of the mitigation measures. The measures are grouped by sector and summarised according to key aspects of implementation planning, including the responsible government ministries and implementing entities9, the planned timeline, and the estimated funding requirements through 204010. Adaptation and resilience co-benefits are also shown, as well as key linkages with achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 9 Note that due to space restrictions, acronyms are used throughout; please therefore refer to the list of acronyms and abbreviations included at the front of this report as required. 10 Where relevant, estimated unconditional and conditional components are denoted in the tables by “uc” and “c”. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 32 OTHER KEY TOTAL TIMELINE LINE MINISTY ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT NDC MEASURE IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs ENTITIES FUNDING 2025 2030 2040 ENERGY ELECTRICITY GENERATION Improved water management through Grid-connected hydropower US$ 8.3 billion flood and drought control. Increase in generation Displacement of GHG MOE MERA, EGENCO, agricultural production due to emissions from fossil fuel power (Department of ESCOM 100% improved water management and    generation, including coal-fired, Energy Affairs) conditional reduced exposure to extreme climate diesel and HFO generation. events.  Reduced dependence on traditional Off-grid small scale solar PV biomass fuels, which is vulnerable to systems Installation of PV systems US$ 4 million MOE MOLG, District climate variability. Reduced pressure for domestic solar heating and lanterns, resulting in avoided GHG (Department of Councils, CSOs, 100% on forests and forest biodiversity.    Energy Affairs) NGOs conditional Increased off-farm business for rural emissions from kerosene and community having access to energy unsustainable charcoal use.  also increases adaptative capacity.  Grid connected large scale solar Reduced dependence on fossil fuels MERA, EGENCO, US$ 1.1 billion PV Displacement of GHG MOE including imported liquid fuels, the ESCOM, emissions from fossil fuel power (Department of Department of 100% supply and distribution of which are    generation, including coal-fired, Energy Affairs) conditional vulnerable to climate impacts both Lands, IPPs diesel and HFO generation. globally and regionally. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 33 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs ENTITIES FUNDING Grid connected wind power US$ 479 Reduced dependence on fossil fuels Displacement of GHG emissions MOE million including imported high cost liquid MERA, EGENCO, from fossil fuel power generation, (Department of fuels, the supply and distribution of    including coal-fired, diesel and ESCOM 100% which are vulnerable to climate Energy Affairs) HFO generation. conditional impacts both globally and regionally. Efficient charcoal production Reduced dependence on availability of Production of charcoal to meet US$ 1.2 traditional biomass fuels, which is MOE, Ministry of energy demand using less wood million vulnerable to climate variability. Forestry and MOLG, District feedstock through use of efficient Reduced pressure on forests    Natural Resources Forestry Offices 100% kilns, resulting in reduced CH4 and (DOF) resources, with reduced impacts from unconditional N2O emissions. extreme rainfall events. Clean Coal technology - high MERA, EGENCO, Reduced reliance on coal production efficiency coal-fired power plant ESCOM, IPPs, US$ 7.5 billion and use - when compared to the Installation of highly efficient MOE Department of baseline reference case - thereby super ultracritical coal plant, (Department of 100% increasing resilience of grid power and    resultsing in reduced GHG Mines, private Energy Affairs) conditional supply and reducing fossil fuel emissions from coal use in sector (mining companies) dependence. electricity generation. Clean Coal technology - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Deployment of carbon capture to MERA, EGENCO, US$ 4.8 billion MOE ESCOM, IPPs, sub-critical coal power stations in (Department of 100% Not applicable    the north of Malawi with Department of Energy Affairs) conditional permanent geological storage Mines, donors within in-situ coal seams. TRANSPORT MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 34 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs Modal shift: private to passenger ENTITIES FUNDING Increased resilience of transport Passenger transport Increasing the share of MOTPW, MOLG Associations, Bus US$ 138 infrastructure. Improved health and passenger transport from around (Department of Operators million reduction of harmful local air 10% at present to around 30% in uc: US$ 41m pollutants, enhacing resilience of    Road Traffic and Associations, City 2040, reducing GHG emissions Safety Services) Councils, private c: US$ 97m population to disease and adverse from gasoline and diesel use. transport cos climate impacts. Modal shift: road to rail freight Road Increased resilience of transport Increased use of rail under the MOTPW Transporters US$ 12.9 infrastructure. Improved health and National Transport Master Plan, (Department of Rail Association, billion reduction of harmful local air resulting in reduced diesel uc: US$ 6.45m pollutants, enhacing resilience of    and Public Railway Operator, consumptions and GHG emissions Transport) District and City c: US$ 6.45m population to disease and adverse from road freight transport. Councils climate impacts. Increasing ethanol blending with Decreased dependence on imported gasoline as a transportation fuel US$ 506 fossil fuel energy products. Improved Achieving an average national MOTPW, MOE million MERA, private health and reduction of harmful local blend rate of 20% ethanol, (Department of uc: US$ 253m air pollutants, enhacing resilience of    resulting in reduced GHG sector Energy Affairs) population to disease and adverse emissions from gasoline c: US$ 253m climate impacts. consumption in road transport. Blending biodiesel with diesel as Decreased dependence on imported a transportation fuel Commercial US$ 157 fossil fuel energy products. Improved production of biodiesel fuel MOTPW, MOE MERA, MOA, million health and reduction of harmful local reaching 55 million litres and (Department of DADOs, private uc: US$ 141m air pollutants, enhacing resilience of    resulting in reduced GHG Energy Affairs) sector c: US$ 16m population to disease and adverse emissions from diesel climate impacts. consumption in road transport. BUILDINGS MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 35 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs Improved charcoal cookstoves - District Energy ENTITIES FUNDING rural households (a) Deployment MOE Offices, District Reduced demand for traditional of efficient charcoal cookstoves to (Department of Forestry Offices, US$ 8 million biomass, which helps to reduce Energy Affairs), District Councils, urban households; increasing from 100% pressure on forestry resources with    20% to 30% efficiency thereby Ministry of Forestry NGOs, Area and associated reduced impacts from and Natural Village unconditional reducing demand for charcoal and extreme rainfall events. CH4 and N2O emissions. Resources (DOF) Development Committees Improved firewood cookstoves - rural households (b) Introduction District Councils, Reduced dependence on traditional of 2 million improved high US$ 18 million biomass fuels, which is vulnerable to MOE NGOs, Area and efficiency stoves, resulting in (Department of Village 100% climate variability. Reduced pressure    carbon sink preservation through Energy Affairs) Development unconditional on forests resources, with reduced reduction in use of unsustainable Committees impacts from extreme rainfall events. biomass fuel. INDUSTRY AND MANUFACTURING Power Factor Correction Increased resilience and efficiency of Reduced generation of reactive US$ 1.5 industrial and manufacturing power at power plants resulting in MOI (Department million consumers - because the use of PFC avoided GHG emissions from of Factory MERA, ESCOM allows electricity users to reduce their    reduced fossil fuel fuel Inspectorate) 100% electricity bills by maintaining the level combustion to generate reactive unconditional of reactive power consumption. power. AGRICULTURE MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 36 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs Use of efficient barns for tobacco DOF,ENTITIES Department FUNDING Reduced dependence of farmers on curing Reduced demand for of Energy Affairs, US$ 60 million traditional biomass fuels, which is fuelwood required in tobacco District vulnerable to climate variability. curing from 2025-2040 by use of MOA Agriculture 100% Reduced pressure on forests    efficient barns, resulting in Development unconditional resources, with reduced impacts from avoided CH4 and N2O emissions Offices, tobacco extreme rainfall events. from fuelwood combustion. associations Conservation tillage within for commercial crop farming Use of conservation or zero tillage District US$ 1 million Reduced dependence on imported Agriculture farming, resulting in avoided GHG MOA 100% fossil fuel energy and increased food    emissions from diesel use in Development security. Offices, NGOs unconditional tractors used in ploughing and tilling before crop planting. OTHER KEY TOTAL TIMELINE LINE MINISTY ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT NDC MEASURE IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs ENTITIES FUNDING 2025 2030 2040 IPPU MINERALS INDUSTRY MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 37 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs Increased use of rice husk ash ENTITIES FUNDING Reduced dependence on imported (RHA) in blended cement fossil fuels for use in clinker production Reduction in demand for cement in EAD, Department US$ 3 million MOI (Department and promotion of indigenous construction industry through of Housing, ;increased blending in cement of Factory cement 100% resources. Increased resilience of the    Inspectorate) conditional sector through a potential reduction of production resulting in reduced companies cement production costs and exposure  calcination emissions from to energy price volatility. domestic clinker production. Earth stabilised blocks (ESBs) as building materials Wider Department of Increased resilience through use of promotion of ESBs as materials Housing, Malawi < US$ 1 sustainable domestic materials and MOI (Department million within institutional and domestic Bureau of development of local building building projects to replace of Factory Standards, ESB construction market. Reduced    Inspectorate) 100% cement stabilised blocks within providers, NCIC, conditional dependence on global and regional construction, reducing emissions NGOs cement market dynamics.  from cement production. Alternative low carbon cement processes Potential use of emerging lower-carbon cement Malawi Bureau of <US$ 1 million production processes such as MOI (Department Standards, belite ye’elimite-ferrite (BYF) of Factory 100% Not applicable.    cement clinker with reduced GHG Inspectorate) conditional companies emissions compared to conventional process. CROSS-CUTTING MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 38 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs Support industries involved in ENTITIES FUNDING Utilisation of domestically produced carbon capture utilisation and < US$ 1 CO2 within industries can help reduce storage (CCUS) Support for Department of dependence on products and inputs MOI (Department million Energy Affairs, companies assessing, developing of Factory whilst enhancing resource reuse and    or implementing CCUS from private sector, 100% recycling. Depending on the process Inspectorate) suitable facilities, resulting in donors conditional and product(s), environmental impacts stored or avoided CO2 emissions. can also be lessened. OTHER KEY TOTAL TIMELINE LINE MINISTY ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT NDC MEASURE IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs ENTITIES FUNDING 2025 2030 2040 WASTE SOLID WASTE Landfill gas (LFG) utilisation Improved quality of water, soil and Generation of up tp 95 GWh of local atmosphere, increasing human electrical power from landfill gas City and District US$ 102 and environmental resilience. extraction, collection and Councils, million Increased access to electricity and utilization applied to sanitary MOFNR, MOLG Department of reduced dependency on traditional    landfills, resulting in reduced CH4 Energy affairs, 100% biomass energy. Creation of revenue from landfill sites and avoided CO2 MERA conditional generation opportunities for urban from displacement of fossil-based population in the waste management electricity use. process chain.   MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 39 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs ENTITIES FUNDING Waste Reduction Practices Reduced local pollution and Solid and water waste reduction unsustainable waste management practices at household, City and District MOFNR, MOLG Not quantified practices and generation, resulting in    institutional and industry level to Councils, EAD increased resilience of ecosystems and reduce waste generation, resulting public health. in reduced CH4 and CO2 emissions.  Waste to Energy (WtE) Installation of waste to energy Increased access to electricity and incinerators to generate up to 250 City and District US$ 169 reduced dependency on traditional GWh of electricity per year in Councils, million biomass energy. Creation of revenue Lilongwe and Blantyre, achieving MOFNR, MOLG Department of generation opportunities for urban    Energy affairs, 100% reduced CH4 emissions from population in the waste management MERA conditional landfill sites and avoided CO2 from process chain. displacement of grid power. WASTE WATER Waste-water treatment and reuse Rehabilitation and construction of Reduced water contamination sewerage network and City and District US$ 67 million resulting in increased human and wastewater treatment plants in Councils, environmental resilience. Increased Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu and MOFNR, MOLG 100% agriculture production and    Department of Zomba, achieving a reduction in Water Resources conditional groundwater recharge. Increased food CH4, and N2O emissions from production and nutrition security. waste-water and sewage. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 40 OTHER KEY TOTAL TIMELINE LINE MINISTY ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT NDC MEASURE IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs ENTITIES FUNDING 2025 2030 2040 AGRICULTURE CROP MANAGEMENT Conservation agriculture: crop residue and rotation Support and Increased food security and implementation of the planned US$ 472 agricultural resilience through MOA (Department million expansion targets for crop residue MOFNR, LUANAR, enhanced soil fertility, increased crop and crop rotation to improve soil of Crop NGOs, donors stability and reduced soil erosion.    Development) uc: US$ 236m conservation, resulting in increase c: US$ 236m Cleaner water provision, through of soil carbon stock and improved reduced nutrient and soil runoff.  crop yields. Conservation agriculture: conservation tillage Support and Increased food security and Department of implementation of the planned agricultural resilience through MOA (Department Land Resources expansion targets for conservation < US$ 1 enhanced soil fertility, increased crop of Crop and Conservation,    tillage to improve soil Development) MOFNR, LUANAR, million stability and reduced soil erosion. conservation, resulting in increase Cleaner water provision, through NGOs, donors of soil carbon stock and improved reduced nutrient and soil runoff.  crop yields. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 41 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs Promotion of efficient fertiliser ENTITIES FUNDING use and manure management Enhanced effectiveness of fertilizer Improved fertiliser management Department of US$ 369 application supports resilience and through increased use of organic MOA (Department Land Resources million agricultural efficiency of vulnerable waste in soil fertilizers and of Crop and Conservation, farmers. Reduced compostable waste    compost manure, increasing Development) MOFNR, LUANAR, uc: US$ 148m related health risks such as dengue carbon stock retention in soils, NGOs, donors c: US$ 221m fever. Enhanced soil fertility and and reduced N2O emissions from reduced soil erosion. mineral N-fertilizer use. Improved rice management Enhanced effectiveness of fertilizer practices Deep organic fertiliser US$ 333 application supports resilience and application and improved biomass MOA (Department million agricultural efficiency of vulnerable and fertilizer management in rice MOFNR, LUANAR, and nitrification inhibitors of Crop farmers. Reduced compostable waste    NGOs, donors uc: US$ 233m related health risks such as dengue application, resulting in reduced Development) c: US$ 100m fever. Enhanced soil fertility and N2O emissions from mineral N- reduced soil erosion. fertilizer use. LIVESTOCK Improved livestock husbandry Improved livestock husbandry US$ 120 through expansion of new fodder MOA (Department Increased food security and resilience of Animal Health MOFNR, LUANAR, million area under Brachiaria and Napier, of livestock farmers and rural    reducing CH4 emissions from and Livestock NGOs, donors uc: US$ 48m communities through enhanced yields. enteric fermentation and Development) c: US$ 72m increasing biomass carbon stock. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 42 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs Improved livestock and breed ENTITIES FUNDING management Improved breeding management to increase meat Increased food security and resilience and milk yields, including through MOA (Department US$ 2.3 billion of livestock farmers and rural species replacements, of Animal Health MOFNR, LUANAR, communities through introduction of    and Livestock NGOs, donors uc: US$ 1.6bn encouragement of semi-intensive more drought resistant livestock Development) c: US$ 0.7bn feeding system and diversification, species and enhanced yields. resulting in reduced CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation. Improved farm management Establishing biogas digesters, Department of Increased food security and resilience promotion of collective farms, MOA (Department US$ 43 million of livestock farmers and rural Land Resources of Animal Health improved manure management and Conservation, uc: US$ 4m communities through enhanced yields.    and promotion of slurry systems, and Livestock Increased access to clean and MOFNR, LUANAR, c: US$ 39m resulting in reduced or avoided Development) sustainable energy sources. NGOs, donors N2O and CH4 emissions. FORESTRY AND LAND USE Afforestation (protective forests, US$ 515 FRIM, DFOs, Adaptation related benefits include woodlots and urban forests) million NGOS, local reduced soil erosion from loss of forest Production and planting of native including MOFNR communities, cover, run-off in steep areas and water Eucalyptus and Pinus trees in riparian 45,000 Ha of areas, withpotential (Department of village restoration purification. Co-benefits include    Forestry) associations, ecosystem related sources of income to be scaled-up to 600,000 Ha with and traditional and improved livelihood, landscape international support, based on authorities. uc: US$ 35m restoration and biodiversity gains.  NFLRS targets. c: US$ 480m MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 43 NDC MEASURE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY TOTAL ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) IMPLEMENTING ESTIMATED CO-BENEFITS WITH SDGs ENTITIES FUNDING Increased ecological resilience to Ripairan restoration FRIM, DFOs, climate change, reduced risk of Around 36,000 Ha of native NGOs, local flooding, linking of aquatic and species and bamboo to be planted MOFNR communities, terrestrial ecosystems, and thermal within riparian zones and wetland (Department of village See above refugia for aquatic species. Co-benefits    borders to enable higher Forestry) associations, include ecosystem related sources of ecological productivity and and traditional income and improved livelihood, sustainable harvesting. authorities. water resource protection and  biodiversity gains. Agroforestry Targeted planting of Agroforestry increases plot and farm an additional 25 trees/ha on FRIM, LUANAR, resilience while reducing vulnerability 155,000 Ha of crop fields, DFOs, NGOs, local US$ 666 to climate change in both agricultural equivalent to 20% of total arable MOFNR communities, million and forestry lands. Co-benefits include land, 31,784 Ha of village forest areas; and expansion of new fruit (Department of village ecosystem related sources of income    Forestry) associations, uc: US$660m such as sustainable wood (for fuel and area on 27,000 Ha to achieve at and traditional c: US$ 6m timber), fruit, and fodder, and least a 10% tree cover. Scaled-up authorities. improved livelihood, landscape potential for all agroforestry types restoration and biodiversity gains. estimated at 700,000 Ha. Sustainable forest and landscape management Production and FRIM, DFOs, NGOs, local Adaptation related benefits include planting of native trees in US$ 643 communities, reduced soil erosion from loss of forest conservation areas, and protection MOFNR million cover, run-off in steep areas and water of areas with tree-site matching village (Department of associations, purification. Co-benefits include    species for a total of up to 132,000 Forestry) uc: US$94m, ecosystem related sources of income ha, with potential to be scaled up and traditional authorities, c: US$ 549m and improved livelihood, landscape to around 600,000 Ha with restoration and biodiversity gains. internaitonal support, based on private sector NFLRS targets. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 44 5.5 Funding requirements The figure below show the estimated funding requirements associated with all identified mitigation options, estimated at 41.8 billion USD through 2040. These represent the investment costs required for new plant, installations, equipment and goods, as well as additional implementation and ongoing costs. The funding levels for each sector broadly correspond to the estimated mitigation shares across each emitting sector, with energy projects accounting for the majority (around 86%), followed by agriculture (9%). In order to achieve the projected mitigation outcomes, the estimates indicate how resource requirements increase significantly over each subsequent five-year period. This reflects increasingly deep cuts in emissions through 2040, but also the timing of large capital- intensive energy and infrastructure projects developed from around 2030 onwards. Figure 5-11 Funding requirements for all identified measures through 2040 Source: Carbon Counts (2021), EC (2021) and UNDP (2021) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 45 Table 5-6 Funding requirements for all mitigation measures (USD million) Sector 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 Total Electricity and heat 421 2,980 8,465 10,374 22,240 Transport 2,145 2,473 4,200 4849 13667 Other energy 19 22 23 24 88 Energy total 2,584 5475 12,688 15,247 35,994 IPPU 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 Crop management 131 284 368 392 1175 Livestock 505 652 646 646 2449 Agriculture total 635 936 1014 1,039 3,624 Forestry 743 854 226 0 1,824 Solid waste 214 42 7 7 271 Waste-water 33 33 0 0 67 Waste total 248 76 7 7 337 TOTAL 4,213 7,341 13,935 16,292 41,782 Figure 5-12 shows the estimated funding requirements according to the grouping of “unconditional” (domestically supported) and “conditional” measures for each five-year period through 2040. Figure 5-12 Estimated funding requirements for NDC measures MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 46 6 Adaptation contribution 6.1 Overview This section describes the adaptation component of Malawi‟s nationally determined contribution. After a description of vulnerability and resilience to climate change impacts, a description is made of the methodology used to prioritise adaptation priorities and develop relevant indicators. Adaptation actions are then described, followed by a summary of the national Implementation Plan for prioritised measures and their estimated funding requirements. 6.2 Vulnerability and resilience As noted earlier, most of the vulnerabilities of the key socio-economic sectors and the supporting ecosystems and natural resources are related to climate extreme events, as heavy rains and droughts and strong winds related to cyclones. Recently, Malawi has been having its heavy share of all, but those effects have been increasingly observed in the last decades. The vulnerability assessment was taken from the Third National Communication (TNC) (GoM, 2020). The following conclusions may be drawn from climate change scenario analysis results about future expected temperature and rainfall regimes in Malawi based on the two scenarios used: (a) there is a positive trend in temperature rise, i.e., there will be an increase in temperature in Malawi with climate change; (b) minimum temperatures exhibit a faster rise in temperature with climate change than maximum temperatures; (c) generally, there is an insignificant decrease in rainfall during the October-December period, and an increase during January-March; (d) future temperatures will rise by 1.3 oC to 2.6 oC; and (e) El Niño conditions will likely increase climate extremes, resulting in the increased severity, or magnitude/intensity, and frequency of floods, droughts, and strong winds. What is clear from the description of climate change scenarios for Malawi in its TNC is that floods, droughts and strong winds will continue to wreak havoc in the country. The country‟s vulnerability to the vagaries of severe floods, droughts, and strong winds should therefore be taken as a serious cause for worry by the Government of Malawi and the citizenry, and hence the urgent need by the country to implement robust climate change adaptation strategies in order to avert impending disasters associated with these three hazards. It was proposed that the adaptation actions take on the four building blocks of the NAP process, namely: (i) national development strategies, (ii) capacity development, (iii) knowledge and information management, and (iv) sustainable partnerships. The socio- economic sectors are based on the NAP and the TNC and include: MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 47  Agriculture, fisheries and livestock;  Ecosystems (including forestry), biodiversity, tourism, culture and wildlife;  Energy;  Human health;  Infrastructures, buildings and energy; and  Social protection and gender The sectoral vulnerability assessment is largely based on the TNC. The language used in that from the IPCC AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part B: Regional Aspects. 3: Africa (see Figure 6-1). This refers to climatic drivers, key risks and adaptation issues and prospects or adaptation actions disaggregated in measures, for the specific Malawian case. Key risks are identified based on detailed assessment of the literature including an evaluation based on the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5). MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 48 Figure 6-1 Key risks from climate change and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation in Africa. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 49 Each key risk is characterized as very low, low, medium, high, or very high. Risk levels are presented for the near-term era of committed climate change (here, for 2030–2040), in which projected levels of global mean temperature increase do not diverge substantially across emissions scenarios. Risk levels are also presented for the longer-term era of climate options (here, for 2080–2100), for global mean temperature increase of 2°C and 4°C above pre-industrial levels. For each time frame, risk levels are estimated for the current state of adaptation and for a hypothetical highly adapted state. As the assessment considers potential impacts on different physical, biological, and human systems, risk levels should not necessarily be used to evaluate relative risk across key risks. Relevant climate variables are indicated by symbols. The following table summarizes the climate drivers and key risks per sector for Malawi, based on the TNC and the framework presented by the IPCC. Table 6-1 Climate drivers and key risks per sector in Malawi Sector Climate drivers Key risks Causes of vulnerability Ecosystems and Temperature Shifts in biome distribution, - Soil erosion biodiversity increase and severe impacts on wildlife - Declining soil fertility Precipitation due to diseases and species - Loss of vegetation cover Lake surface extinction - Low technology uptake temperature - Weak coordination among various increase sectors as forestry, environment, agriculture and water resources’ management Water resources Temperature Compounded stress on water - The quantity of surface water resources increase/ resources facing significant in Malawi, especially in rivers, is highly Extreme strain from overexploitation dependent on the availability of rainfall temperature and degradation at present which sustains runoff Precipitation/ and increased demand in the - Many river basins in the country are Extreme future, with drought stress under severe pressures due to precipitation exacerbated in drought-prone deforestation, unsustainable agriculture, Lake surface regions settlements, mining, industry, temperature commerce, tourism and climate change increase - Manually operated system for flood forecasting and flood warning in the country; and it is only the Lower Shire Valley that has such a system in place - The main shortfall with the EWS for droughts is that it mainly focuses on food security rather than being a multisectoral tool where the impact of droughts on water resources, health, energy, DRM, and tourism are considered MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 50 Sector Climate drivers Key risks Causes of vulnerability Agriculture, Temperature Reduced crop productivity - Exposure to climate extremes fisheries and increase/ associated with heat and - Most smallholder farmers are resource livestock Extreme drought stress, with strong poor; as such, they have very limited temperature adverse effects on regional, capacity to contain shocks arising from Precipitation/ national, and household climate change, particularly floods, Extreme livelihood and food security, strong winds, and droughts precipitation also given increased pest and - Limited agro-processing facilities disease damage and flood - Over-dependency on rain-fed impacts on food system agriculture and biomass energy infrastructure - Lack of insurance schemes to compensate farmers and fishers Adverse effects on livestock - Inadequate hazard maps linked to temperature rise and - Poor crop diversification precipitation changes that - Overfishing lead to increased heat and - Weed infestation and eutrophication water stress, and shifts in the range of pests and diseases, with adverse impacts on pastoral livelihoods and rural poverty Infrastructure, Cyclones and Extreme weather events - Exposure to extreme events and lake buildings and winds disrupt transport systems, level raise with damages and energy production systems, disruptions in the supply chains infrastructure, public services - Environmental degradation, insufficient (water, education, health, capacity, liquidity problems and sanitation), especially in vandalism, water level fluctuations, informal silting areas (flooding) Human health and Temperature Changes in the incidence and - Exposure to the vectors that propagate wellbeing increase/ geographic range of vector- malaria and diarrhoeal diseases Extreme and water-borne diseases - Malnutrition temperature due to changes in the mean - Exposure to extreme events that may Precipitation/ and variability of temperature cause injuries and life losses Extreme and precipitation, particularly precipitation along the edges of their distribution Undernutrition, with its potential for life-long impacts on health and development and its associated increase in vulnerability to malaria and diarrheal diseases, can result from changing crop yields, migration due to weather and climate extremes, and other factors Increased migration leading to human suffering, human rights violations, political instability and conflict Source: Authors, based on GoM, 2015a and IPCC analysis MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 51 6.3 Methodological approach The adaptation work stream was undertaken in close alignment with work already done in Malawi to increase the climate resilience of the most vulnerable communities and ecosystems. The adaptation assessment was undertaken according to four steps:  Step 1: Review all relevant documents and sources to develop long-list of adaptation measures  Step 2: Assess and prioritise identified measures  Step 3: Develop adaptation indicators for each measure, and targets to inform updated NDC and  Step 4: Assess funding needs, mitigation co-benefits and contribution towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) The analysis involved extensive review of all relevant studies, programmes and documents relating to vulnerability, resilience and climate adaptation in Malawi. These included the INDC, the NAP, the Third National Communication, the NAPA, the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA), the National Climate Change Investment Plan (NCCIP) and the National Response Strategy (NRS). In reviewing such documents, the first step of the analysis covered the identification of the adaptation actions and measures that could be included within the revised NDC. In reviewing these documents, the first step of the analysis covered the identification of the adaptation actions and measures that could now be included within the updated NDC. The literature review led to the identification of more than 300 (three hundred) adaptation measures that were initially computed in an excel file with the identification of the sector, the action, the measure, a brief description, the expected resilience effect, and the source of the information. The measures and actions were grouped according to the following sectors: (i) Agriculture (ii) Biodiversity, tourism, culture and wildlife (iii) Energy (iv) Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and early warning systems (EWS) (v) Fisheries (vi) Forestry (vii) Human health (viii) Infrastructure (ix) Social protection and gender (x) Water resources and supply (xi) Cross cutting These were later grouped according to the following thematic areas: MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 52 (i) Effective and efficient EWS; (ii) Accessible and harmless water; (iii) Blooming biodiversity, ecosystems and eco-tourism; (iv) Smart agriculture, livestock and fisheries; (v) Climate-proofed infrastructures, buildings and energy systems; and (vi) Healthy and protected people The indication of the conditionality of the measure (according to the level of unconditional or conditional support) was also included where such information was available. After sharing the long-list with the members of the Malawi Adaptation Expert Working Group (EWG), a series of workshops was undertaken in order to undertaken prioritization of the interventions based on a use of multi-criteria analysis. These included representatives covering the various sectors, including environment affairs, irrigation, agriculture, economic planning and development and civil society. Based on the outcomes of the workshops, it was decided to cluster and prioritize the measures and then to share this with the EWG and other sector experts, and to engage on one-on-one consultations to validate the short list, and where possible obtain information on indicators, targets and cost estimates. 6.4 Resilience and assessment of adaptation responses Table 6-2 shows the main adaptation actions by objective and pillar of the adaptation stream of the NDC. The ten strategic options are related to the three pillars – (i) institutional framework, (ii) knowledge, technology and financing and (iii) resilience of the most vulnerable, which support three main objectives – (i) promote an enabling environment to facilitate climate change adaptation (CCA) mainstreaming, (ii) improve capacity for data and information management and sharing, and access to technology and financing for adaptation, and (iii) plan and implement adaptation actions toward an increased resilience of the most vulnerable Malawians. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 53 Table 6-2 Strategic adaptation actions Objective Pillar Strategic Adaptation Actions Adaptation actions Promote Institutional 1. Establishment of the NAP‟s mandate enabling framework institutional arrangements for environment to the multi-sector coordination facilitate CCA of climate change actions, mainstreaming including the definition of its composition and mandate

2. Testing and NAP‟s implementation institutionalization of Definition of guidelines to mechanisms to integrate integrate CCA into sectoral CCA into the next “National planning and budgeting Development Plan” or equivalent and sectoral planning instruments, including the annual sectoral budgets and guidelines Improve the Knowledge, 3. Development and Research programme on capacity for data technology and implementation of a research climate resilient technologies, and information financing programme on climate including industry and drought management change impacts and CCA tolerant and fast-growing and sharing, and actions vegetal species access to

4. Implementation of a CB at national and district technology and capacity-building plan and levels to use the guidelines financing for integration of CCA into CB on EWS and data adaptation curricula downscaling CB on Wash interventions CB on wildlife and tourism management CB on aquaculture and cage farming CB on diagnose, prevention and control of climate-sensitive diseases and malnutrition Integration of forestry, livelihoods and environmental management in curricula

5. Implementation of the Public campaigns on water communication plan conservation measures Campaigns on hygiene and sanitation

6. Operationalization of an Elaboration of overarching M&E framework recommendations for climate covering the NDC and M&E in the scope of the NDC potentially the NAP, SDGs and Sendai Framework

7. Elaboration and Preliminary estimates of costing implementation of a resource of the actions and measures mobilization plan included in the NDC MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 54 Objective Pillar Strategic Adaptation Actions Adaptation actions Plan and Resilience of 8. Elaboration of NAPs for Elaboration of NAPs for implement the most priority sectors agriculture, biodiversity and adaptation vulnerable ecosystems, fisheries, health, actions toward infrastructures and housing, an increased tourism and water resources resilience of the most vulnerable Malawians

9. Development of CCA Development of simplified planning tools tested in methodologies as a basis to particularly vulnerable assess risks and identify communities, demonstrating community-based adaptation an integrating CCA approach options and measures to in various sector include in local CCA plans and budgets Design of local EWS

10. Elaboration of a portfolio of Effective and efficient EWS CCA priority actions for the Accessible and harmless water key sectors aligned with Blooming biodiversity and sectoral planning and ecosystems and eco-tourism budgeting, using nature- based solutions and Smart agriculture, livestock and ecosystems-based fisheries adaptation Climate-proofed infrastructures, buildings, and energy systems Healthy and protected people MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 55 The adaptation actions for each sector are presented below, desegregated according to their constituting measures. 6.4.1 Effective and efficient EWS An effective and efficient EWS form Malawi can encompass:

1. Establishing community based early warning systems and flood water monitoring systems nationwide and prioritized in problematic rivers

2. Designing, testing and executing multi-hazard contingency plans and

3. Integrating DRM risk assessment and monitoring in all sectors and programmes, including Risk reduction/early warning systems in public works, transport infrastructure. 6.4.2 Accessible and harmless water To climate-proof the water sector, action is needed in:

1. Drought management a. Scaling up water supply to drought prone areas water point rehabilitation; rainwater catchment; water harvesting and storage technologies b. Construction of multipurpose dams to retain surface runoff during the rainy season, as nearly 24% of annual rainfall is lost as surface run-off and c. Integration of Indigenous Knowledge (IKS) into scientific early warning for drought

2. Flood management a. Improvement of the assessment and planning and systems and construction of dikes and upstream storage dams, storm drains or bunds to re-direct or divert flows to minimize flood damages b. Delineation of flood prone areas with flood zoning maps and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies and measures c. Extension of the installation of telemetry flood forecasting and warning systems to other flood prone areas for timely evacuation of people and d. Integration of IKS into scientific early warning for floods

3. Integrated watershed management: a. Development and strengthening of water policies, integrated land use management policies, plans and approaches in priority watersheds and reservoirs b. Increase of afforestation and reforestation in catchment areas to cover areas not yet considered, and address deforestation and degradation c. Increase of sustainable utilization and monitoring of groundwater resources d. Monitoring of leakage and control in piped networks to avoid water loss e. Water use efficiency f. Improvement in the coverage of rural piped water supply and MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 56 g. Development of nationwide water quality monitoring framework systems. 6.4.3 Blooming biodiversity and ecosystems and eco-tourism The actions to promote the conservation and flourish biodiversity and ecosystems in a resilient way include:

1. Conservation of biodiversity: a. Promotion of cooperation with regional and international institutions in the conservation and management of wildlife resources b. Provision of watering points at strategic locations of national park/ game reserve and c. Upscaling of measures for controlling the extinction of plant and animal species and degeneration of ecosystems/habitats. Develop and implement invasive alien species management plan and d. Management of elephant population and implementation of diseases' control programmes

2. Promotion of resilient eco-tourism a. Development and implementation of tourism support infrastructure plan b. Development of a tourism crisis management strategy and plan, including emergency situations c. Improvement of tourist facility/buildings designs and standards to integrate climate resilience considerations including the concept of Build Back Better (BBB) and Smarter d. Membership of the Climate Change Crisis Committee and enhancement of tourism facility designs, planning and compliance to environmental and climate resilient regulations standards and e. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the tourism investment plans. 6.4.4 Smart agriculture, livestock and fisheries For increasing the resilience of the sector, the following are proposed, organized by action and measure:

1. Institute and upscale drought mitigation interventions; Establishing locally based plant clinics

2. Establish risk financing and investment including weather index insurance and other solutions at the national and sub national levels inclusive of microfinance and insurance products for smallholder and commercial farmers; Establishment and execution of customized risk and financing solutions for the agriculture sector.

3. Mechanize agricultural production with targeted support to smallholder farmer; Agriculture & mechanisation

4. Establish grain export processing zone; Resilient value chains' and market's development, Value addiction and exports MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 57

5. Promotion of metallic silos & PICSA bags for effective grain storage; Upscale post- harvest management linking to disaster risk management

6. Post-harvest management; Promoting proper post-harvest practices to further reduce storage losses

7. Promote farm-based disaster risk reduction and management practices; Crop and diet diversification: through the cultivation of roots and tubers (cassava, sweet potatoes) and other drought tolerant crop cultivars and Winter cropping systems using small-scale irrigation technologies, such as treadle pumps, drip irrigation and stream diversion

8. Manage migratory pests; Surveillance (Integrated Pest Management)

9. Promote legumes and other multiple impact crops Promoting legumes and other multiple impact crops for soil fertility improvement and dietary improvement

10. Farmer managed natural regeneration; Promoting drought-resilient water, soil and catchment conservation

11. Promoting various drought-resilient water, soil and catchment conservation interventions on and off-farm (Resilient Soils); Promoting drought-resilient water, soil and water and catchment conservation

12. Build adaptation capacity in climate resilient agronomic practices for smallholder farmers; Training households in food budgeting, utilisation & preservation

13. Build adaptation capacity in climate resilient agronomic practices for smallholder farmers; Promotion of good agronomic practices

14. Institute and upscale drought mitigation interventions; Developing new irrigation schemes (using drip irrigation kits) & rehabilitating/modernising old schemes

15. Climate Smart Agriculture; Reforestation and Water supply

16. Crop/livestock and fish farming intensification & diversification; Integrated crop- livestock-aquaculture-forest production systems; Animal health year-round for improved food security and nutrition Animal health year-round for improved food security and nutrition

17. Establishing community and multiplication seed banks; Improved community participation in seed selection, storage and management

18. Improved MVAC through linking to Integrated Phase Classification; continue annual assessment of the status of food and nutrition insecurity and biannual SMART Nutrition survey to measure nutrition security situation; Improved MVAC through linking to Integrated Phase Classification; continue annual assessment of the status of food and nutrition insecurity and biannual SMART Nutrition survey to measure nutrition security situation

19. Institute and upscale drought mitigation interventions; Irrigation: Expanded programmes of Greenbelt initiative from 4000 ha to 10000 ha

20. Institute and upscale drought mitigation interventions a. Promoting in-situ & ex-situ rainwater harvesting b. Promoting livestock water points & fodder banks MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 58 c. Scaling up water supply to drought prone areas, water point rehabilitation; rainwater catchment; water harvesting and storage technologies d. Promotion of irrigated agriculture and distributing irrigation equipment e. Support an expanded programme of constructing multipurpose dams for irrigation and aquaculture

21. Resilient diet for smallholder farmers Promoting good animal welfare, health & disease control e.g., standard livestock structures

22. Resilient value chains and market's development, Value addiction and exports: a. Strengthening farmer organizations and market engagement b. ADMARC reforms and reduced market uncertainty and price volatility

23. "Restocking strategic grain reserves "; Upscale post-harvest management linking to disaster risk management

24. Up-scaling feed preservation & fodder banks; Resilient diet for smallholder farmers

25. Value addition & agro-processing; Resilient diet for smallholder farmers

26. Value chain upgrading, and physical infrastructure improvements; Resilient value chains' and market's development, Value addiction and exports

27. Develop financial mechanisms to support crop insurance targeting smallholder farmers; Provision of agricultural input subsidies & incentives

28. Drought mitigation "Promoting drought tolerant or early maturing planting material"

29. Drought mitigation; Constructing water reservoirs & efficient use of water

30. Flood management; "Restocking strategic grain reserves "

31. Resilient soil: a. Soil and water conservation and b. Soil fertility improvement. 6.4.5 Climate-proofed infrastructure, buildings and energy systems To decrease the climate vulnerability of infrastructures, buildings and energy systems Malawi can promote:

1. Resilience of infrastructures to heat and drought: a. Advocate installation of solar shading devices. Harness solar technology for heating and lighting solutions in construction: solar shading devices b. Locating appliances which generate waste heat outside the insulated envelope c. Harness solar technology for heating and lighting solutions in construction: Solar shading devices. Minimizing hard landscaping materials which absorb heat during the day and re-radiate it at night d. Application of ventilation and cooling strategies and e. Application of drought management in the design, construction and management of public and private infrastructure. Increasing the size and number of engineering structures, e.g., culver

2. Resilience of infrastructure to floods MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 59 a. Applying safety and build better and smarter principles including granular protection, beam and base under pinning factor to design assumptions b. Revision of existing building standards to incorporate climate change considerations. Integrate flood risk management in the design and construction of public and private infrastructure: Passive cooling measures, Mini-piled underpinning, including pile and beam, cantilever pile caps and piled rafts; Raising roads, road re-alignment, pavements and adding additional drainage capacity; Realigning natural water courses etc. c. Conducting slope stability studies in an attempt to minimize incidents of landslides as a result of increased precipitation and d. Construction of offshore breakwaters, groins to protect shorelines from coastal erosion. 6.4.6 Healthy and protected people To promote public health and social protection in the face of climate change, the proposed adaptation actions and measures include:

1. Resilient health a. Boiling drinking water, filtration and chlorination of drinking water and improvement in personal hygiene. Enhance public awareness about water, sanitation and hygiene practices; and enhance health surveillance of Malaria, Diarrhoea and Malnutrition. b. Promotion of insecticide-treated mosquito nets and c. Oral rehydration salts, homemade sugar and salt solution, and cereal based solutions, such as rice water. intravenous fluids, antibiotic treatment, and isolation wards in case of diarrhoeal disease outbreaks

2. Scaling up resilient nutrition a. Increased adoption of improved nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive practices. Nutrition assessment, counselling, and support services linked to livelihoods targeting adolescents, adults, and children b. Increased adoption of improved nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive practices. Promote dietary diversity and integrate nutrition-sensitive practices across sectors, primarily agriculture, health, education, WASH and c. Increased adoption of improved nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive practices. Promote nutrition-specific practices through SUN framework and Care group model, primary health care, therapeutic care, support, and treatment

3. Social support a. Increasing and strengthening the delivery of Micro finance, Public Works Programmes, school meals Programmes, Social cash transfer and Village and Savings and Loans (VSL) schemes MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 60 b. Development of long-term workforce development plan and strategic livelihoods plans to help people move up and out into sound employment opportunities, and plan for managed urban migration c. Establishment of Social Support Fund for predictable, timely response (Climatic shock related Social Protection services) d. Promotion of gender mainstreaming in policies, programmes and projects e. Support capacity building programmes for vulnerable groups and civic education and public awareness and f. Linkage of inclusive social support systems to risk financing options with the development and utilization of coordinated system for design and delivery of social support system inclusive of climate related shock sensitive interventions. 6.5 Targets and indicators for resilience A framework of proposed indicators was compiled using various sources of information available from national reports on climate change adaptation, as well as internationally from nations with similar experience and approaches to resilience enhancement. Analysis undertaken by GIZ was the main source used in this process, since this had already consolidated a set of indicators based on practical experiences in Africa, Asia and Europe (Hammill, et al., 2014). 6.6 Implementation plan The following tables present a summary of Malawi‟s NDC Implementation Plan for each of the adaptation measures. As with mitigation, the measures are grouped by sector and summarised according to key aspects of implementation planning, including the responsible government ministries and implementing entities11, the planned timeline, and the estimated funding requirements through 204012. Mitigation and low carbon development co-benefits are also shown, as well as key linkages with achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 11 Note that due to space restrictions, acronyms are used throughout; please therefore refer to the list of acronyms and abbreviations included at the front of this report as required. 12 Where relevant, estimated unconditional and conditional components are denoted in the tables by “uc” and “c”. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 61 TIMELINE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED ALIGNMENT MEASURES MITIGATION BENEFITS 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs 2025 2030 2040 CLIMATE SERVICES EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND HAZARD MONITORING Ministry of Forestry US$ 250 Nationwide community-based and Natural million Protection of assets that promote low EWS and flood monitoring, Resources DODMA, DCCMS carbon development and mitigation  prioritized in problematic rivers (Department of uc: US$ 70m Water Resources) c: US$ 180m Ministry of Homeland Security US$ 175 DCCMS, million Designing, testing, and executing Department of Protection of assets that promote low multi-hazard contingency plans Department of carbon development and mitigation    Disaster Water Resources uc: US$ 75m Management c: US$ 100m Affairs Integrating DRM risk assessment Ministry of US$ 75 million and monitoring in all sectors, Homeland Security Protection of assets that promote low including public works and Disaster MOEPD&PSR uc: US$ 55m carbon development and mitigation  transport infrastructure Management c: US$ 20m Affairs TIMELINE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED ALIGNMENT MEASURES MITIGATION BENEFITS 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs 2025 2030 2040 WATER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 62 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Irrigation Ministry of Forestry US$ 108 Department Water supply, storage, harvesting and Natural million Regional Water Savings in energy used to alleviate in drought-prone areas, including Resources Boards water shortages    water point rehabilitation (Department of uc: US$ 54m Water User c: US$ 54m Water Supply) Associations Ministry of Forestry US$ 215 Department of Savings in energy used to alleviate and Natural million Construction of multipurpose Water Supply, dams for water storage Resources Department of water shortages    (Department of uc: US$ 125m Production of hydroelectricity Fisheries c: US$ 90m Water Resources) Department of US$ 536  Integration of indigenous Water Resources million Savings in energy used to alleviate and Department of knowledge into early warning Public universities water shortages    systems for drought Climate Change and uc: US$ 25m Meteorological c: US$ 11m Services FLOOD MANAGEMENT Planning, construction, and Ministry of Forestry US$179 Savings in energy used to alleviate improvement of flood and Natural million floods management structures such as Resources DODMA    upstream dams, storm drains, uc: US$ 28m Protection of assets that promote low (Department of dikes, and bunds c: US$ 151m carbon development and mitigation Water Resources) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 63 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Delineation of flood prone areas Ministry of Forestry Ministry of Lands, Savings in energy used to alleviate with flood zoning maps and the and Natural Department of US$ 90 million floods development of appropriate Resources Disaster    adaptation strategies and 100% Protection of assets that promote low (Department of Management measures conditional carbon development and mitigation Water Resources) Affairs (DODMA) Extension of the installation of Ministry of Forestry Savings in energy used to alleviate Department of US$ 54 million telemetry flood forecasting and and Natural floods Disaster warning systems to other flood Resources 100%    Management Protection of assets that promote low prone areas (Department of conditional Affairs (DODMA) carbon development and mitigation Water Resources) Department of Water Resources Department of US$ 36 million Savings in energy used to alleviate Integration of indigenous floods and Department of Disaster knowledge into early warning 100%    systems for floods Climate Change and Management Protection of assets that promote low Meteorological Affairs (DODMA) unconditional carbon development and mitigation Services INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT Development and strengthening Ministry of Forestry Money savings in energy costs may be of water policies, integrated land US$ 29 million and Natural Water Boards and used to alleviate floods and droughts use management policies, plans Resources Water Users uc: US$ 4m    and approaches in priority Protection of assets that promote low (Department of Associations c: US$ 25m watersheds and reservoirs carbon development and mitigation Water Resources) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 64 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Increase of afforestation and Savings in energy used to alleviate Ministry of Forestry reforestation in catchment areas Cost covered floods and Natural Department of to cover areas not yet considered, Resources Water Resources, under Protection of assets that promote low    and address deforestation and (Department of NGOs Mitigation carbon development and mitigation degradation Forestry) Carbon sequestration Ministry of Forestry Increase of sustainable utilization US$ 29 million and Natural Money savings in energy costs may be Water Users and monitoring of groundwater Resources uc: US$ 9m used to alleviate floods and droughts    resources Associations (Department of c: US$ 20m Water Resources) Department of US$ 29 million Monitoring of leakage and control Water Supply Money savings in energy costs may be in piped networks Waterboards 100% used to alleviate floods and droughts    Water Users Associations unconditional Department of US$ 29 million Money savings in energy costs may be Water Supply Water use efficiency Waterboards 100% used to alleviate floods and droughts    Water Users and water treatment Associations unconditional Ministry of Forestry US$ 144 Improvement in the coverage of and Natural Waterboards million rural piped water supply Resources Water Users Savings in energy used to water needs    (Department of Associations uc: US$ 89m Water Supply) c: US$ 55m MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 65 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Ministry of Forestry Development of nationwide US$ 29 million and Natural water quality monitoring Malawi Bureau of Savings in energy used to water needs    Resources uc: US$ 4m framework systems Standards (Department of c: US$ 25m Water Supply) TIMELINE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED ALIGNMENT MEASURES MITIGATION BENEFITS 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs 2025 2030 2040 BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEMS CONSERVATION OF BIODIVERSITY MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 66 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Promotion of cooperation with regional and international Private Sector US$ 41 million Department of Carbon sequestration and other institutions in the conservation Wildlife and Parks (e.g., African uc: US$ 26m ecosystem services, saving energy use    and management of wildlife Parks) c: US$ 15m resources Provision of watering points at Private Sector US$ 68 million Department of Carbon sequestration and other strategic locations of national Wildlife and Parks (e.g., African uc: US$ 38m ecosystem services, saving energy use    park/ game reserves Parks) c: US$ 30m Upscaling of measures for controlling the extinction of plant and animal species and US$ 82 million degeneration of Forest Research Carbon sequestration and other Department of ecosystems/habitats, including Institute of uc: US$ 32m ecosystem services, saving energy use    Wildlife and Parks the development and Malawi c: US$ 50m implementation of invasive alien species management plans Management of elephant US$ 82 million Private Sector Carbon sequestration and other Department of population and implementation (e.g., African uc: US$ 32m ecosystem services, saving energy use    of diseases' control programmes Wildlife and Parks Parks) c: US$ 50m RESILENT ECOTOURISM MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 67 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Private Sector (e.g., African Development and Ministry of US$ 14million Carbon sequestration and other Parks and Wildlife Tourism, Wildlife implementation of tourism and uc: US$ 7m ecosystem services, saving energy use    support infrastructure plan and Culture, and Environmental c: US$ 7m More resources available to mitigation Ministry of Forestry Society of Malawi (WESM)) Private Sector (e.g., African Development of a tourism crisis Ministry of US$ 18 million Carbon sequestration and other Parks and Wildlife Tourism, Wildlife management strategy and plan, and uc: US$ 9m ecosystem services, saving energy use    including emergency situations and Culture, and Environmental c: US$ 9m More resources available to mitigation Ministry of Forestry Society of Malawi (WESM)) Improvement of tourist Private Sector facility/buildings designs and (e.g., African Carbon sequestration and other Ministry of US$ 36 million standards to integrate climate Parks and Wildlife ecosystem services, saving energy use Tourism, Wildlife resilience considerations and uc: US$ 18m in lightning and climatization    and Culture, and including the concept of Build Environmental c: US$ 18m Ministry of Forestry More resources available to mitigation Back Better (BBB) and Smarter Society of Malawi (WESM)) Membership of the Climate Change Crisis Committee and US$ 36 million Carbon sequestration and other enhancement of tourism facility Ministry of ecosystem services, saving energy use Department of  designs, planning and compliance Transport and uc: US$ 18m in lightning and climatization Tourism to environmental and climate Public Works c: US$ 18m More resources available to mitigation resilient regulations standards MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 68 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Private Sector (e.g., African Carbon sequestration and other Mainstreaming climate change US$ 16 million Parks and Wildlife ecosystem services, saving energy use Department of adaptation in tourism investment and uc: US$ 8m in lightning and climatization    plans Tourism Environmental c: US$ 8m Energy efficiency Society of Malawi (WESM)) MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 69 (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs 2020- 2025- 2030- 2025 2030 2040 AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES Environmental US$ 55 million Institute and upscale drought Department of mitigation interventions Irrigation Affairs uc: US$ 20m Save energy in drought response    Department c: US$ 35m Private Sector Department of (e.g., National US$ 11 million Establish locally based plant Agricultural Carbon sequestration and other clinics Research and Smallholder ecosystem services    Association of uc: US$ 11m Services (DARS) Malawi) Establish risk financing and investment including weather index insurance and other US$ 77 million solutions at the national and sub Ministry of Carbon sequestration and other national levels inclusive of Agriculture and NGOs uc: US$ 37m ecosystem services    microfinance and insurance Food Security c: US$ 40m products for smallholder and commercial farmers US$ 110 Mechanize agricultural Department of million Use of renewable energy sources and production with targeted support Agricultural NGOs promote energy efficiency    to smallholder farmer Extension Services uc: US$ 50m c: US$ 60m MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 70 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Private Sector Use of renewable energy sources and Establish grain export processing US$ 33 million Ministry of (e.g., National promote energy efficiency zones, and develop resilient value Agriculture and Smallholder uc: US$ 18m    chains Carbon sequestration and other Food Security Association of c: US$ 15m ecosystem services Malawi) Private Sector Use of renewable energy sources and Promotion of metallic silos & Department of (e.g., National US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency PICSA bags for effective grain Agricultural Smallholder    storage uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services Association of ecosystem services Malawi) Use of renewable energy sources and Promotion of proper post-harvest Department of US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency practices to further reduce Private sector and    Agricultural storage losses NGOs uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services ecosystem services Crop and diet diversification through the cultivation of roots and tubers (cassava, sweet Use of renewable energy sources and potatoes) and other drought US$ 22 million Department of promote energy efficiency tolerant crop cultivars and winter Private sector and    Agricultural uc: US$ 10m cropping systems using small- NGOs Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services c: US$ 12m scale irrigation technologies, such ecosystem services as treadle pumps, drip irrigation and stream diversion Use of renewable energy sources and Integrated Pest Management for Department of US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency Private sector and    migratory pests Agricultural NGOs uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services ecosystem services MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 71 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Promotion of legumes and other US$ 55 million Use of renewable energy sources and multiple impact crops for soil Department of promote energy efficiency Private sector and fertility improvement and dietary Agricultural uc: US$ 25m    NGOs Carbon sequestration and other improvement Extension Services c: US$ 30m ecosystem services Promotion of drought-resilient Department of US$ 66 million Use of renewable energy sources and water, soil and catchment Land Resources and Private sector and promote energy efficiency conservation through farmer- uc: US$ 36m    Conservation NGOs Carbon sequestration and other managed natural regeneration c: US$ 30m ecosystem services Department of Use of renewable energy sources and Animal Health and See mitigation promote energy efficiency Improved livestock husbandry NGOs table    Livestock Carbon sequestration and other Development ecosystem services Promotion of various drought- US$ 33 million Use of renewable energy sources and resilient water, soil and Department of promote energy efficiency catchment conservation Land Resources and NGOs uc: US$ 13m    Carbon sequestration and other interventions on and off-farm Conservation c: US$ 20m ecosystem services Instituting and upscaling drought mitigation interventions such as Use of renewable energy sources and the development of new Ministry of US$ 33 million Agriculture promote energy efficiency irrigation schemes (using drip NGOs uc: US$ 13m    irrigation kits) and (Irrigation Carbon sequestration and other Department) c: US$ 20m ecosystem services rehabilitating/modernising old schemes MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 72 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs US$ 44 million Use of renewable energy sources and Introduction, expansion, and Department of promote energy efficiency scale-up of Climate Smart Agricultural NGOs uc: US$ 24m    Agriculture practices Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services c: US$ 20m ecosystem services Crop/livestock and fish farming Lilongwe Use of renewable energy sources and intensification & diversification, Department of US$ 55 million University of promote energy efficiency Animal Health and through integrated crop-livestock- Agriculture and uc: US$ 25m    aquaculture-forest production Livestock Carbon sequestration and other Natural Resources c: US$ 30m systems Development ecosystem services (LUANAR) Improving community Private Sector Use of renewable energy sources and participation in seed selection, Department of (e.g., National US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency storage and management, and Agricultural Smallholder    the establishment of community uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services Association of and multiplication seed banks ecosystem services Malawi) Conducting annual assessment of Lilongwe Use of renewable energy sources and the status of food and nutrition Department of University of US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency insecurity and biannual SMART Nutrition, HIV and Agriculture and    Nutrition survey to measure uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other AIDS Natural Resources nutrition security situation ecosystem services (LUANAR) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 73 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Ministry of US$ 55 million Carbon sequestration and other Agriculture Greenbelt Expand Greenbelt initiative uc: US$ 25m ecosystem services    (Irrigation Initiative c: US$ 30m Use of renewable energy sources Department) Lilongwe Use of renewable energy sources and Department of Promotion of good animal University of US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency Animal Health and    welfare, health & disease control Agriculture and Livestock uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other Natural Resources Development ecosystem services (LUANAR) National US$ 44 million Use of renewable energy sources and Strengthening of farmer Department of promote energy efficiency Smallholder organizations and market Agricultural uc: US$ 24m    engagement Association of Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services c: US$ 20m Malawi ecosystem services Agriculture Ministry of Use of renewable energy sources and Undertaking ADMARC reforms to Development and Economic US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency reduce market uncertainty and Marketing Planning and    price volatility uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other Corporation Public sector ecosystem services (ADMARC) Reform MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 74 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Use of renewable energy sources and Promotion of efficient fertiliser Department of US$ 11 million promote energy efficiency use and manure management Agricultural NGOs    uc: US$ 11m Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services ecosystem services US$ 55 million Use of renewable energy sources and Restocking strategic grain National Food promote energy efficiency reserves ADMARC uc: US$ 35m    Reserve Agency Carbon sequestration and other c: US$ 20m ecosystem services Department of Agricultural Use of renewable energy sources and US$ 22 million Up-scaling feed preservation & Extension Services promote energy efficiency fodder banks and Department of NGOs uc: US$ 10m    Carbon sequestration and other Animal Health and c: US$ 12m ecosystem services Livestock Development National US$ 22 million Use of renewable energy sources and Improving agricultural value- Department of promote energy efficiency Smallholder addition through agro-processing Agricultural uc: US$ 7m    Association of Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services c: US$ 15m Malawi ecosystem services National US$ 55 million Use of renewable energy sources and Improving infrastructure in Department of promote energy efficiency Smallholder agricultural value chains Agricultural uc: US$ 35m    Association of Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services c: US$ 20m Malawi ecosystem services MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 75 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs US$ 22 million Use of renewable energy sources and Provision of agricultural input Department of promote energy efficiency subsidies & incentives Agricultural NGOs uc: US$ 17m    Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services c: US$ 5m ecosystem services US$ 22 million Use of renewable energy sources and Promotion of drought tolerant or Department of promote energy efficiency early maturing planting material Agricultural NGOs uc: US$ 12m    Carbon sequestration and other Extension Services c: US$ 10m ecosystem services US$ 44 million Use of renewable energy sources and Constructing water reservoirs & Department of promote energy efficiency efficient use of water NGOs uc: US$ 18m    Water Resources Carbon sequestration and other c: US$ 26m ecosystem services US$ 22 million Use of renewable energy sources and Soil management techniques to Department of promote energy efficiency improve soil fertility and soil Land Resources and NGOs uc: US$ 12m    conservation Carbon sequestration and other Conservation c: US$ 10m ecosystem services TIMELINE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED ALIGNMENT MEASURES MITIGATION BENEFITS 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs 2025 2030 2040 MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 76 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs INFRASTRUCTURE HEAT AND DROUGHT-PROOFING Installation of solar shading Department of Department of Use of renewable energy sources and devices Housing Energy Affairs Cost unknown promote energy efficiency     Cost covered Location of appliances that Department of Department of under Use of renewable energy sources and generate waste heat outside the Housing Energy Affairs Mitigation promote energy efficiency    insulated envelope interventions Minimizing hard landscaping US$ 39 million materials which absorb heat Department of Department of Use of renewable energy sources and during the day and re-radiate it at uc: US$ 24m promote energy efficiency    Housing Energy Affairs night c: US$ 15m Ministry of US$ 39 million Application of ventilation and Transport and Department of Use of renewable energy sources and  cooling strategies Public Works uc: US$ 31m promote energy efficiency    Energy Affairs (Buildings c: US$ 8m Department) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 77 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Application of drought management in the design, Ministry of construction and management of US$ 79million Transport and Use of renewable energy sources and Department of public and private infrastructure, Public Works uc: US$ 12m promote energy efficiency    such as by increasing the size and Water Resources (Buildings c: US$ 67m number of water engineering Department) structures (e.g. culverts) FLOOD-PROOFING Applying safety and build better Ministry of US$ 136 and smarter principles including Department of Transport and million Use of renewable energy sources and Disaster granular protection, beam and Public Works promote energy efficiency    base under pinning factor to Management uc: US$ 36m (Buildings design assumptions Affairs (DODMA) c: US$ 100m Department) Revision of existing building standards to incorporate climate change considerations, such as passive cooling measures, mini- Ministry of US$ 102 Department of piled underpinning, including pile Transport and million Use of renewable energy sources and Disaster    and beam, cantilever pile caps Public Works promote energy efficiency Management uc: US$ 12m and piled rafts; raising roads, (Buildings Affairs (DODMA) c: US$ 90m road re-alignment, pavements Department) and adding drainage capacity; and realigning natural water courses Ministry of Department of US$ 51 million Conducting slope stability studies Transport and Carbon sequestration and other Disaster to reduce incidents of landslides Public Works uc: US$ 21m ecosystem services    Management (Buildings c: US$ 30m Affairs (DODMA) Department) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 78 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Ministry of Construction of offshore Department of US$ 51 million Transport and Carbon sequestration and other Disaster breakwaters, groins to protect Public Works uc: US$ 21m ecosystem services    shorelines Management (Buildings c: US$ 30m Affairs (DODMA) Department) TIMELINE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED ALIGNMENT MEASURES MITIGATION BENEFITS 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs 2025 2030 2040 HUMAN WELL BEING HEALTH Increase practices of boiling Ministry of Health US$ 30 million Department of drinking water, filtration and (Department of Use of renewable energy sources and chlorination of drinking water and Preventive Health Water Supply, uc: US$ 15m promote energy efficiency    NGOs improvement in personal hygiene services) c: US$ 15m Ministry of Health US$ 30 million Use of renewable energy sources and Enhance public awareness about Department of promote energy efficiency (Department of water, sanitation and hygiene Preventive Health Water Supply, uc: US$ 15m    practices NGOs Carbon sequestration and other services) c: US$ 15m ecosystem services  MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 79 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Ministry of Health US$ 30 million Use of renewable energy sources and Enhance health surveillance of NGOs/ CSOs (e.g., promote energy efficiency Malaria, Diarrhoea and (Department of    Health Equity uc: US$ 10m Malnutrition Preventive Health Carbon sequestration and other Network) c: US$ 20m services) ecosystem services Ministry of Health US$ 30 million Use of renewable energy sources and NGOs/ CSOs (e.g., promote energy efficiency Promotion of insecticide-treated (Department of mosquito nets Preventive Health Health Equity uc: US$ 15m    Network) Carbon sequestration and other services) c: US$ 15m ecosystem services Increase adopton of oral rehydration salts, homemade sugar and salt solution, and cereal Use of renewable energy sources and Ministry of Health US$ 30 million based solutions, such as rice NGOs/ CSOs (e.g., promote energy efficiency (Department of water. intravenous fluids, Preventive Health Health Equity uc: US$ 15m    antibiotic treatment, and isolation Network) Carbon sequestration and other services) c: US$ 15m ecosystem services wards to reduce heat stress- related diarrhoeal disease outbreaks NUTRITION Promption of dietary diversity and Use of renewable energy sources and MOEPD&PSR, US$ 45 million integration of nutrition-sensitive Department of promote energy efficiency NGOs/ CSOs (e.g., practices across sectors, primarily Nutrition, HIV and Health Equity uc: US$ 30m    agriculture, health, education, and AIDS Carbon sequestration and other WASH Network) c: US$ 15m ecosystem services MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 80 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Promote nutrition-specific Use of renewable energy sources and MOEPD&PSR, US$ 75 million practices through SUN framework Department of promote energy efficiency NGOs/ CSOs (e.g., and Care group model, primary Nutrition, HIV and Health Equity uc: US$ 50m    health care, therapeutic care, AIDS Carbon sequestration and other support, and treatment Network) c: US$ 25m ecosystem services   SOCIAL SUPPORT Ministry of Increasing and strengthening the Economic Planning delivery of Micro finance, Public MOGCSW, MOE, Use of renewable energy sources and Development and US$ 70 million Works Programmes, school meals NLGFC, NLGFC, promote energy efficiency Public Sector Programmes, Social cash transfer NGOs/CSOs (e.g., uc: US$ 30m    Reforms Carbon sequestration and other and Village and Savings and Loans Gender c: US$ 40m (Department of ecosystem services (VSL) schemes Networks) Public Sector Reforms) Preparation of long-term workforce development plans and MOEPD&PSR, Use of renewable energy sources and strategic livelihoods plans to help MOGCSW, US$ 35 million promote energy efficiency people move up and out into Ministry of Labour NGOs/CSOs (e.g., uc: US$ 10m    sound employment opportunities, Gender Carbon sequestration and other and plan for managed urban Networks) c: US$ 25m ecosystem services migration  Ministry of Economic Planning MOGCSW, US$ 105 Use of renewable energy sources and Establishment of Social Support Development and DODMA, million promote energy efficiency Fund for predictable, timely Public Sector response (Climatic shock related Reforms NGOs/CSOs (e.g.,    Gender uc: US$ 25m Carbon sequestration and other Social Protection services) (Department of Networks) c: US$ 80m ecosystem services Public Sector Reforms)  MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 81 MEASURES LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED MITIGATION BENEFITS ALIGNMENT TIMELINE (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs Use of renewable energy sources and Promotion of gender Ministry of Gender, NGOs/CSOs (e.g., US$ 35 million promote energy efficiency mainstreaming in policies, Children and Social Gender    programmes and projects Welfare  Networks) uc: US$ 35m Carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services Support capacity building Use of renewable energy sources and Ministry of Gender, NGOs/CSOs (e.g., US$ 35 million promote energy efficiency programmes for vulnerable groups and civic education and public Children and Social Gender    Welfare  Networks) uc: US$ 35m Carbon sequestration and other awareness ecosystem services Linkage of inclusive social support Ministry of systems to risk financing options Economic Planning MOGCSW, Use of renewable energy sources and with the development and Development and US$ 70 million DODMA, utilization of coordinated system Public Sector NGOs/CSOs (e.g., promote energy efficiency     for design and delivery of social Reforms uc: US$ 35m Carbon sequestration and other support system inclusive of (Department of Gender c: US$ 35m ecosystem services  Networks) climate related shock sensitive Public Sector interventions Reforms) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 82 TIMELINE LINE MINISTY OTHER KEY ESTIMATED ALIGNMENT MEASURES MITIGATION BENEFITS 2020- 2025- 2030- (FOCAL POINT) ACTORS FUNDING WITH SDGs 2025 2030 2040 CROSS-CUTTING Strengthen governance including Ministry of Forestry US$ 221 oversight, capacity building, and Natural Economic million Improved implementation and monitoring, evaluaton and Resources Planning reporting of mitigation progress    learning for effective NDC (Environmental Department uc: US$ 131m implementation Affairs Department) c: US$ 90m MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 83 6.7 Funding requirements According to the NAP framework, every year Malawi loses an average of 1.7% of its GDP as a result of climate change-related disasters, mainly floods and drought. An economic vulnerability and disaster risk assessment conducted by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) indicates that annual flood damage in the Shire River Basin (the country‟s most flood-prone area) results in an average loss of 0.7% of GDP per year, while elsewhere in the country drought causes an average economic loss of 1% of GDP annually. In short, climate change is making Malawi‟s pathway to prosperity more difficult, more complex and costlier. Factors that increase vulnerability to climate change impacts in Malawi are deep-rooted: poverty, rapid population growth that results in overexploitation of natural resources, and high dependence on subsistence rain-fed agriculture. Finding a way to simultaneously finance the promotion of climate proofed development and recovery after the pandemics is therefore key to recovery. Cost estimates for the prioritised adaptation measures were made for different time periods through 2040. Estimates were made by referring to different planning documents, through discussions with members of the Adaptation Expert Working Group (EWG) and other experts, and through assessing and scaling based on the costs of similar projects. As with the mitigation contribution, some programmes and interventions will be conditional on the availability of external financial support (“conditional”) while others are expected to be implemented through domestic funding (“unconditional”) or co-financing (internal and external sources of budget). As shown below, the total implementation of all prioritised adaptation measures is estimated at around 4.5 billion USD through 2040. Through consultation with sector experts, and considering existing government initiatives and planned programmes, the total funding requirements for the adaptation contribution are estimated at around 53% conditional on international support and 47% unconditional. The estimates also show how the bulk of the support is required over the coming decade, reflecting the need to mobilise adaptation funding in order to prepare and manage climate impacts and risks expected to increase in Malawi over the near term. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 84 Figure 6-2 Estimated costs for adaptation measures through 2040 MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 85 7 Monitoring, reporting and verification framework 7.1 Tracking the NDC target All Parties to the UNFCCC are required to implement a domestic monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system that can annually quantify national GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks, and report the specific actions made to identify and implemented mitigation measures. This information is at present compiled by Malawi and is submitted to the UNFCCC through two channels:  National Communications (NCs) to be submitted every four years, covering measurements of GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks compiled in accordance with IPCC reporting guidelines (i.e. a National GHG inventory). These should also include a description of steps made to implement mitigation actions in support of the UNFCCC goal, among other aspects (as required under Decision 17/CP.8 and other decisions on implementation details); and  Biennial Update Reports (BURs) to be submitted every two years. These should include an updated GHG inventory report from that of the NC, a measurement of mitigation actions and their impacts, reporting on the domestic MRV system and a description of needs and international support received. All non-Annex I countries were requested to submit their first BUR by December 2014 and then every two years thereafter (Decision 2/CP.17; Decision 19/CP.18; Decision 9/CP.21). The Paris Agreement requires accounting for anthropogenic emissions and removals corresponding to the NDC, in accordance with common methodologies and measurement systems evaluated by the IPCC and approved by the CMP (1/CP.21, Paragraph 31). The methodologies evaluated by the IPCC are those used for estimating the National GHG Inventory estimation. The NDC target will be tracked based on the annual emissions estimated in the National GHG Inventory and the projected BAU scenario emissions within the NDC period, as follows: MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 86 Where: BAU (t) Emissions (and removals) in baseline in tCO2e at time t Inventory (t) Emissions (and removals) in GHG Inventory in tCO2e at time t The Paris Agreement contains several additional MRV requirements which, when taken together with the existing UNFCCC arrangements, provide an enhanced basis for Malawi‟s international reporting requirements relating to its updated NDC. The enhanced transparency framework (ETF) established by the Paris Agreement requires an MRV system to transparently report progress made towards the targets defined in Malawi‟s NDC and to track the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions, as well as the use and results of means of including climate finance. The system should also capture broader non-GHG impacts – such as environmental, social and economic impacts – resulting from implementation of measures for the purposes of evaluating their contribution to achieving broader development goals. A framework of indicators consistent with the international requirements has been developed. This will allow Malawi to effectively track progress of the mitigation activities identified in this NDC consistent with UNFCCC reporting standards, and carry out ongoing evaluation of whether the country is on course to meet its targets through 2040. 7.2 Institutional arrangements At the national level, the Malawi Government has put in place robust national planning process involving pillar, enabler, sector and district level coordination structures that are coordinated by the National Planning Commission (NPC) for medium to long term plans and strategies, and the Ministry of Economic Planning, Development and Public Sector Reforms (MOEPD&PSR) through sector working groups (SWGs) that track the short term implementation of sector priorities aligned with the goals of the Malawi Growth Development Strategy (MGDS) III and the National Vision (Malawi 2063). The top-most structures shall be the Pillar Coordination Groups (PCGs) that link directly and will be responsible for spearheading implementation and reporting progress on the three pillars of the National Vision: Agriculture, Productivity and Commercialization; Industrialization; and Urbanization. The PCGs shall be supported by the Enabler Coordination Group on Environmental Sustainability (ECGES). Co-chaired by MEPD&PSR and MOFNR, with EAD as the secretariat, the ECGES will bring together all relevant MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 87 stakeholders (state and non-state) falling under the Environmental Sustainability enabler. Given the cross-cutting nature of environmental sustainability matters, the ECGES will report to each of the three Pillar Coordination Groups (PCGs) on matters relevant to the pillar. The PCGs and ECGES will work closely with the existing National Steering Committee on Climate Change (NSCCC) and the joint Technical Committee on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (TCCC&DRM) in defining multi-year pillar and enabler priorities as well as advising Government on the resources required for meeting the defined Vision priorities within their respective pillars and/or enablers. The NSCCC and TCCC&DRM shall receive policy and implementation oversight from the NPC through the ECGES. The NSCCC comprises all key ministries and departments and provides strategic direction and inter-ministerial coordination on national climate change policy including Malawi‟s NDC. The NSCCC is chaired by the MOEPD&PSR, with MOFNR acting as the main implementing partner. It is supported by the joint Technical Committee on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (TCCC&DRM) which provides technical guidance on all climate change, disaster risk management and resilience issues in Malawi. The TCCC&DRM reports to the NSCCC and includes representatives from various government entities as well as civil society, donor parties and private sector. The committee is co-chaired by the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) and the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DODMA). A number of Expert Working Groups (EWGs) provide specialised technical guidance and report to the TCCC&DRM. The working groups are established according to requirement and include Adaptation, Mitigation and Climate Finance. Within this framework, the Environmental Affairs Department (EAD) of the Ministry of Forestry and Natural Resources (MOFNR) formulates and oversees climate policy development in Malawi including the day-to-day coordination of the NDC development process. EAD is the UNFCCC focal point and serves as the secretariat of both the NSCCC and TCCC&DRM. The EAD has the overall responsibility for, and chairs, the thematic EWGs and also has overall responsibility for preparing and maintaining the national GHG inventory and submitting Malawi‟s National Communications, BURs, BTRs and NDCs to the UNFCCC. The TCCC&DRM forum, led by the EAD, is the ideal platform for guiding the analytical framework for reporting, updating and implementing the national mitigation and adaptation priorities under the NDC. The TCCC&DRM acting through the Adaption EWG and Mitigation EWG will serve as the national coordinator for all national institutions that implement sector specific mitigation and adaptation measures, receive finance and other means of support, and oversee tracking and reporting of the NDC at the national level. Figure 7-1 below summarises these institutional arrangements for tracking of NDC implementation including the national NDC MRV process. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 88 Figure 7-1 Institutional arrangements for tracking Malawi’s NDC implementation MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 89 7.2.1 Role of TCCC&DRM in coordinating NDC MRV Additional to its normal functions, the joint TCCC&DRM shall perform the following functions through the Adaptation and Mitigation EWGs. Where the NDC MRV roles fall beyond the expertise available within the TCCC&DRM, the committee shall co-opt such expertise, as necessary. The EAD, leading the committee and overseeing the EWGs, will guide the selection of members to provide technical oversight and present the MRV of the NDC annually to the TCCC&DRM for official endorsement. Following the endorsement, EAD will communicate the NDC MRV through the normal national reporting channels including the NSCCCC to inform policy and strategic decisions that ensure NDC MRV effectively supports national sustainable development and is in alignment with the MGDS III and National Vision. The following are key aspects that form part of the mandate of the technical group:  Review and establish objectives for the group, membership and overall working modalities, principal of which is the endorsement and subsequent reporting of the NDC MRV at both national and international levels;  Provide advice and feedback on scope, schedule, cost and quality concerns, or guidance on program priorities, that arise during the planning, design and implementation of the NDC;  Facilitate access to resources necessary to review and report on NDC MRV and approve projects at key milestones;  Review and examine studies and research activities in line with NDCs to facilitate quality assurance and alignment with strategic priorities (including sectoral plans, MGDS III, and Malawi Vision 2063)  Develop and operationalize an effective NDC MRV communications plan These roles build upon the Malawi Climate Transparency Framework, developed as part of Malawi‟s involvement in the Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT).13 NDC information can be shared within the CBIT Global Coordination Platform and other relevant platforms and network. 7.2.2 NDC MRV data and information management system An integrated MRV data and information management system, drawing upon existing procedures and resources, is required as part of a robust M&E framework for NDC implementation. All climate change relevant data including NDC MRV managed and reported by the TCCC&DRM will be processed and accessed through the development of such a system. Assessing and defining the most suitable data sources is important for any MRV system to be effective. The Adaptation and Mitigation EWGs will play a critical role of 13 See https://www.cbitplatform.org/projects/malawi-climate-transparency-framework MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 90 the national level data and information generation and reporting and will be significantly involved in data gathering, transparency, and verification. The TCCC&DRM will ensure that Malawi‟s NDC MRV system links mitigation, adaptation and finance as well as support for capacity building and technology transfer as critical aspects of NDC implementation. Primary data collected at the local level will draw upon those sectors and institutions with direct linkages to local levels (Districts) in sourcing relevant action specific data and information. This will be done with support of broad District based stakeholders through the District Executive Committee (DEC), providing an opportunity for engagement of NGOs private sector and development partners to provide inputs into the NDC MRV process. MOLG provides coordination oversight in facilitating local government data management flows to central level institutions. The NDC MRV system shall be hosted by the Department of Economic Planning and Development (EPD) and integrated within the existing national management information system (MIS). This exists as a robust established platform for reporting on environmental factors, which will be enhanced to report on NDC progress as per an agreed framework of key indicators. As the Co-Chairs of the NSCCC, MOEPD&PSR and EAD will have joint responsibility to provide the overall strategic direction on the MRV and M&E of the NDC. The TCCC&DRM has responsibility for coordinating the NDC MRV, including ensuring engagement of all relevant institutions and stakeholders to provide the data required for inputting to the MIS. Given the timeframe of the NDC implementation plan, an agreement will be reached on the key indicators for integration in the National Planning Commission (NPC) medium to long term reporting system. The National Statistical Office (NSO) is central to national data processes and has the role of validating national statistics through data and information authentication and therefore approval for national statistics shared externally. The NSO will facilitate development and application of data protocols and annually review national level standards and guidelines for data inputs and aggregation to guide sector and/or agency generated data and information on mitigation and adaptation. MOEDP&PSR is the ideal national institution for tracking NDC MRV related finance. The National Climate Change Fund acting as the national fund for environment and climate change will liaise with MOEDP&PSR to manage data on finance and provide a platform to access finance data and information for national reporting. This information will be critical to guide resource mobilization for the successful implementation of Malawi‟s NDC. The NDC MRV information will be prepared using appropriate reporting protocols and formats for national level as well as international reporting. At the national level, NDC MRV will be monitored, analysed and reported annually to the NSCCC and the Natural Resources SWG (uploaded on an IT-based system) using national planning driven process coordinated by MOEDP&PSR to inform policy and strategic planning. The EAD has good experience in reporting to the UNFCCC through National communications (NC) and Biennial Update Reports (BURs). The TCCC&DRM led by EAD will therefore build on this experience to MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 91 coordinate national agencies responsible for data generation and management of NDC MRV reporting to UNFCCC. NDC information and indicators can also be provided as part of Malawi‟s involvement in the Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT). The table below summarises Malawi‟s framework for tracking and reporting on progress of implementing the mitigation and adaptation goals outlined in the NDC. It indicates the institutions, fora, roles and responsibilities proposed to guide and support implementation of MRV of the NDC at the national level including policy and strategic decision levels. Supporting information on the mitigation and adaptation components are provided further below. Table 7-1 Institutional arrangements for tracking Malawi’s NDC Overview of Institutional Arrangements Policy and strategic decision Roles and Responsibilities levels PCGs on Agriculture The Pillar Coordination Groups (PCGs) will be responsible for spearheading Productivity and medium to long-term implementation and reporting of progress on the three Commercialization; pillars of the National Vision: Agriculture Productivity and Commercialization; Industrialization; and Industrialization; and Urbanization14. Urbanization. The Enabler Coordination Group on Environmental Sustainability (ECGES) will ECG on be responsible for coordinating short to long term implementation and reporting Environmental of progress on the Environmental Sustainability enabler. The core indicators Sustainability selected include rate of deforestation, environmental sustainability index and (ECGES) carbon footprint15. The National Steering Committee on Climate Change (NSCCC) oversees implementation of the MGDS III, supported by the National M&E Coordination Committee and M&E Technical Working Groups. NDC M&E progress will be NSCCC (Principal regularly presented to the Steering Committee by implementing institutions (see Secretaries) below) to ensure cross sectoral oversight over the NDC in alignment with the strategic aims of the MGDS III. Reports from the Principal Secretaries will be reviewed by the ECG and the Cabinet through the Cabinet Committee on Natural Resources and Environment (CCNRE)16. 14 To be instituted by way of alignment with Malawi‟s Vision 2063 15 As presented in Malawi Vision 2063. 16 The Cabinet Committee on Natural Resources and Environment (CCNRE) is the highest environmental policy and decision-making body. Its objective is to advise the Cabinet on the protection, conservation and sustainable utilization of renewable and non-renewable natural resources and the environment to ensure equitable and enhanced socio-economic development of the people of Malawi MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 92 Overview of Institutional Arrangements Policy and strategic decision Roles and Responsibilities levels Acts as a forum for dialogue, ownership and accountability of the environmental and sustainable development agenda and making the case for NDC MRV to all stakeholders at sector level. Activities include:  Conduct joint sector reviews (JSR) to facilitate reporting on NDC MRV MOFNR serves as and advocating for NDC MRV-based decisions to wider sector chair of the Natural stakeholders including NGOs, private sector and development partners. Resources SWG (NRSWG)  Monitoring progress of the Sector Strategic Plan (SSP) including the NDC M&E, managing the data management system including aggregating data, conducting verification (EAD on NDC MRV) through a central data management system that will serve as the platform and repository for the NDC MRV. Provides strategic direction, inter-ministerial coordination and policy guidance in National Steering relation to Malawi‟s climate policy including the NDC. Acts as a forum for cross- Committee on sectoral review and evaluation of progress in NDC implementation, advised by Climate Change the TCCC&DRM. EAD has day-to-day responsibility for climate policy and NDC (NSCCC) development and acts as the Secretariat to both committees (NSCCC and TCCC&DRM). Development Supports the NSCCC with its coordination and oversight role and enhances Cooperation Group donor coordination and networking between NDC and climate change on Environment, stakeholders. Acts as a forum for reviewing success and challenges in Resilience and implemenaiton, and proposing actions to fast track implemenation of the NDC in Climate Change alignemnet with MGDS III. Also facilitates alignment of programming and (DCERCC) financing of NDC measures including tracking finance. Comprises heads of government, CSOs/NGOs and relevant private sector institutions operating in the districts. Some of the primary data and information used for tracking the NDC is generated at levels coordinated by districts. District Councils data will be reported to their line ministries and District Executive Committee (DEC). The DEC is also responsible for overseeing planning, coordination and District Executive implementation of NDC measures in the districts, including monitoring and Committee (DEC) evaluation through the Directorate of Planning and Development (DPD). The DEC therefore serves the following key roles:  Monitoring and reporting on the implementation of relevant NDC measures undertaken at district level  Promoting cooperation between the public sector, private sector and civil society to help implement the NDC at district level Coordinates the design and operationalisation of the District Development Planning System (DDPS), supports development and implementation of District MOLG Development Plans (DDPs) under the MGDSIII and upstream reporting on NDC performance at local levels. Ensures alignment between DDPs and NDC measures. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 93 Overview of Institutional Arrangements Policy and strategic decision Roles and Responsibilities levels The MOEPD&PSR is responsible for:  Tracking and reporting on finance provided to NDC measures (domestic and international)  Overall coordination of M&E activities from planning, data collection, and MOEPD&PSR reporting at all levels (EPD)  Preparing annual MGDS III reports using the sectoral contribution reports including the environmental and natural resources sector and ensuring that NDC MRV forms part of the annual reporting  Monitoring macroeconomic indicators and ensure their integration within the NDC planning, updating and reporting as relevant The National Planning Commission (NPC) shall be responsible for coordinating National Planning the design and implementation of, and reporting on medium to long term NDC Commission (NPC) measures to ensure alignment with the MGDSIII and Malawi Vision 2063. The NSO will play a role in the M&E of the NDC through the use of the Malawi Socio-Economic Database (MASEDA) and other resources. The NSO will be responsible for:  Production and dissemination of statistical information required in the National Statistical development, updating and trackiing of the NDC (e.g. key activity data, Office (NSO) energy consumption, GDP, population)  Supporting surveys including vulnerability to climate change analysis and autheticating data and information for internal and external use and consumption.  Promoting use of statistical data for evidence-based policy development and decision making within the NDC framework The TCCC&DRM will host a core team of experts that forms the NDC MRV Technical Group with the following responsibilities:  Creating guidelines and common standards, formats and templates to EAD serving as the be used for reporting MRV results as part of NC, BURs, and BTRs to Secretary of the joint UNFCCC, Technical  Defining and using common data sources and methods & procedures to Committee on compile NDC MRV results Climate Change and  Technical level endorsement of NDC MRV and communicating the Disaster Risk results for upstream NDC-based policy and strategic decision making Management (NSCCC) (TCCC&DRM)  Institutional strengthening, capacity building and training and facilitating linkages through a comprehensive stakeholder engagement process that defines the political, strategic, and practical elements of the NDC MRV system 7.3 Data provision Table 7-2 summarises the key data providers according to activity and indicator area for the mitigation and adaptation components of the NDC, as well as finance and support as required under the Paris Agreement. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 94 Table 7-2 Key data providers for tracking the NDC Mitigation Key data providers / Line Ministry Activity / Indicator Lead Agency stakeholders EGENCO, ESCOM, Department of Mines, MOLG, District Councils, District Energy Department of Energy related Offices, District Forestry MOE Energy Affairs, indicators17 Offices, Area and Village MERA Development Committees, private sector (mining companies, IPPs) MOLG, Passenger Department of Associations, Bus Operators Road Traffic and Associations, City Councils, Transport related MOTPW Safety Services, Road Transporters Association, indicators Department of Railway Operator, District and Rail City Councils, private sector (transport providers) Department of EAD, Department of Housing, , Industry related Factory Malawi Bureau of Standards, MOI indicators Inspectorate, private sector (cement MERA, NCIC companies) Department of Energy affairs, City and Town MOFNR, MOLG Waste related indicators MERA, EAD, Department of Councils Water Resources Department of Crop Development, Department of Animal Health and Livestock Agriculture related MOA MOA Development, Department of indicators Land Resources and Conservation, MOFNR, DADOs, LUANAR, ADDs FRIM, LUANAR, District Forestry related Department of Agriculture Development MOFNR indicators Forestry Offices and District Forestry Offices Adaptation Key data providers / Line Ministry Activity / Indicator Lead Agency stakeholders Build Back Better related Buildings Councils, NGOs (e.g. Habitat MOTPW indicators for flood Department for Humanity, UN Habitat) mitigation 17 Includes use of low carbon and alternative fuels in other sectors MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 95 Mitigation Key data providers / Line Ministry Activity / Indicator Lead Agency stakeholders Resilient tourism related Department of Department of National Parks MOTWC indicators Tourism and Wildlife, EAD, MEPA Department of Crop Development, Department of Animal Health and Livestock Agriculture related Development, Department of MOA MOA indicators Land Resources and Conservation, MOFNR, DADOs, LUANAR, ADDs, DAES Department of Department of Ministry of Health, Academic Nutrition related Nutrition and HIV Nutrition and HIV institutions (LUANAR, indicators and AIDS and AIDS Chancellor College) Department of Health WASH related indicators Preventive Health District Health Offices, NGOs Services Disaster risk management related DCCMS, MVAC, DCCMS, MVAC, Water indicators including flood- Water Resources Resources Department, UN Ministry of proofing, drought Department, UN Organisations, USAID, NCIC, Homeland Security management, early Organisations, Buildings Department, MHC, warning systems and USAID Department of Forestry hazard monitoring and flood management Ministry of Tourism, Resilient Ecotourism Department of Department of Parks and Wildlife and Culture indicators Tourism Wildlife, MEPA Ministry of Education, Poverty MOGCSW, Dodoma, National Social Support related Reduction and MOEPD&PSR Local Government Finance indicators Social Protection Committee, Micro finance Division institutions Fisheries related Department of Department of Fisheries, indicators Fisheries LUANAR Department of Forestry, Integrated Watershed Department of Department of Land Resources Management indicators Water Resources Conservation, Department of Irrigation MOFNR Department of Forestry, Department of Fisheries, Department of National Parks & Biodiversity and Wildlife, National Herbarium & EAD Governance indicators Botanical Gardens, FRIM; MEPA, Economic Planning Department, National Planning Commission MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 96 Mitigation Key data providers / Line Ministry Activity / Indicator Lead Agency stakeholders Finance and support (capacity building and technology transfer) Key data providers / Line Ministry Activity/Indicator Lead Agency stakeholders Total amount of finance mobilised for climate mitigation and adaptation National Climate MOEPD&PSR investments (by measure Change Fund MOFNR, EAD, donors type and sector; (NCCF) conditional and unconditional flows) MOFNR, EAD, NCCF, NCST, MOA (Departments of Capacity building, Agricultural Research, and, MOEPD&PSR technical support and EAD Agricultural Extension technology transfer Services), donors, and all NDC supporting institutions and organizations MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 97 8 Means of implementation According to Article 13 of the Paris Agreement and its associated decisions, developed countries reiterated their previous commitment to channel at least USD 100 billion in annual climate finance to developing countries by 2020. They also agreed to establish a more ambitious climate finance target from 2025. Developing countries are requested to report on the support they have received and any additional needs they have in these areas. For adaptation financing, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) has committed to allocate at least half of its resources to adaptation, and half of its adaptation resources to Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is also a particular drive by many bilateral donors to scale up their support for adaptation. To fully implement the mitigation and adaptation contributions described in this document, Malawi will require support in the form of finance, capacity building, and technology transfer. This section provides an overview of these means of implementation. 8.1 Finance needs The NDC updating process has made use of extensive consultations with sector experts to generate “conditional” and “unconditional” costing estimates for both mitigation and adaptation measures projected through to 2025, 2030 and 2040.18 These estimates, provided by consultant teams led by the EC, UNDP and Carbon Counts, will guide and position Malawi for strategic resources mobilization to meet its climate action ambition, and help inform a process of tracking climate finance flows towards climate mitigation and adaptation action. The total estimated cost for Malawi‟s identified NDC mitigation measures through 2040 is estimated at around 41.8 billion USD for mitigation measures, and around 4.5 billion USD for adaptation measures, representing a combined funding requirement of 46.3 billion USD. Of this total, around one third is estimated to be required over the next decade (2020-2030), and two thirds in the subsequent decade (2030-2040). For both mitigation and adaptation combined, it can be seen that unconditional measures account for around 24% of the total estimated funding requirements, and conditional measures around 76%. 18 Estimated in real terms (i.e. 2020 USD) MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 98 Figure 8-1 Estimated NDC funding requirements (mitigation and adaptation) Table 8-1 Estimated NDC funding requirements (mitigation and adaptation) USD million 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2040 Total Mitigation measures Unconditional contribution 1,664 1,949 5,362 8,974 Conditional contribution 2,550 5,393 24,866 32,808 Total 4,213 7,341 30,228 41,782 Adaptation measures Unconditional contribution 573 738 817 2,128 Conditional contribution 656 818 945 2,419 Total 1,230 1,556 1,762 4,547 Combined total 5,443 8,897 31,990 46,329 Challenges for climate finance in Malawi include insufficient funds, a limited domestic budget for the implementation of climate actions, and the limited involvement of private sector MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 99 investment in environment and climate change activities. In response to these factors, Malawi is currently preparing a resource mobilization strategy which will identify sources of finance and strategies to fund and support the prioritised measures identified in this document. As reflected in the unconditional contribution described in this document, the Government of Malawi will continue to commit significant resources to climate change relevant strategies, both in relation to mitigation and adaptation. Malawian communities, private sector and NGOs can also contribute significantly to these climate change-related activities through public-private partnerships. In this context, the National Climate Change Fund (NCCF) is expected to play a vital role in financing low carbon projects and programmes and leveraging investment. Given the estimated funding requirements outlined above there is clearly also a need for increased levels of bilateral and multilateral financial support and the full implementation of the identified strategic mitigation actions is conditional on the support of international stakeholders. The implementation of the prioritised policies and actions assume the continued use of existing and planned national and international financial sources. An initial assessment of the funding requirements for the identified measures has been described in this document, and implementation costs will be further refined as more evidence-based information is obtained, particularly in relation to forestry and other land use (FOLU) measures. Malawi intends to meet its conditional contribution through the use of climate finance and international market mechanisms where appropriate, building upon its experience of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other existing market mechanisms. These include the potential involvement in international cooperative approaches under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Malawi is also participating in the NDC Partnership, a process that has so far attracted financing for readiness support on developing a pipeline of projects targeting public and private climate finance. The support packages have come most recently through the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) which is currently implementing projects in relation to project identification (e.g. concept notes), monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) and NDC implementation planning among other initiatives. 8.2 Capacity building and technology transfer Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries have also committed to provide technology transfer and capacity building to developing countries. Many developing countries will require enhanced capacities to effectively track inflows of bilateral and multilateral resources and support and identify particular gaps and needs. MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 100 Technology transfer and capacity building will be required to fully implement Malawi‟s mitigation and adaptation contributions. Specific national needs relating to mitigation include:  Building and enhancing climate information systems, including through the National GHG Inventory;  Gaining access to and overcoming barriers to the application of appropriate clean technologies;  Promotion of renewable energies and energy efficiency, including through the involvement of the private sector;  Setting up of public-private partnerships; and  Improving public awareness, training and skills at national, regional and local levels In this context, the Government of Malawi plans to:  Support and encourage the development, transfer and uptake of low carbon and climate technology;  Provide adequate support for policies and programmes that take into account the interactions between the needs of communities, climate change and development, including the link between the national, regional and local levels of decision-making  Promote and enhance climate change education, public awareness and capacity building through ongoing communication, training, information and knowledge management; and  Actively integrate the mainstreaming of gender considerations within climate change measures and where relevant to track climate change issues and indicators according to gender and vulnerable groups; In relation to adaptation, specific capacity and national needs include:  Improved capability (human resources and technology) to deliver sector specific weather services for averting disaster (including flood, drought and pest infestation) through effective early warning systems and disaster management;  Access to, and overcoming barriers to the adoption of, climate smart technologies in agriculture, fisheries and water management;  Up-scaled adoption of alternative energy to biomass for cooking and heating;  Climate change adaptation measures that are planned with a gender lens and are capable of targeting and tracking progress and outcomes by gender and other sources of vulnerability;  Humans that realize and exploit ecological goods and services in ways that are mutually beneficial to the social and ecological systems; MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 101  Improved and sustained flows through robust water use management/licensing systems and abstraction measurement and regulation technology, and associated water use management tools (procedures and protocols); and  Readily available resources for disaster risk reduction and management. In this context, the Government of Malawi plans to:  Develop a nation-wide community-based early warning system for multiple hazards including floods and drought, and multi-hazard contingency plans;  Expand information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure and human capacity to generate and transform climate data into sector-specific information and knowledge products;  Upscale climate smart agriculture;  Implement a national landscape restoration programme that combines promotion of alternative energy sources and afforestation;  Actively mainstream gender considerations within climate change measures and where relevant to track climate change issues and indicators according to gender and vulnerable groups;  Develop climate-resilient infrastructure, and enhanced climate-adaptation capacity of all stakeholders, through better access to climate information and early warning and response mechanisms that safeguard lives and livelihoods from shocks;  Build robust water use licensing systems with detailed procedures and protocols alongside improved flow and abstraction measurement technology;  Pilot and upscale market-based approaches for the management of ecological services such as Payment for Ecosystem services;  Upscale resource mobilisation and leveraging for climate and disaster risk financing and investment; and  Promote and enhance climate change education, public awareness and capacity building through ongoing communication, training, information and knowledge management. Malawi recently completed the first step of the TNA process. The TNA Reports provide a shop list of technologies and their attributes described in the related Technology Fact Sheets (TFS) appended to the TNA reports. Currently, the country is in the second step of TNA process of identifying barriers for the prioritized climate technologies. Once the technology barriers have been identified and analysed, and enabling framework developed, Technology Action Plans (TAPs) will be developed to guide the implementation and transfer of such technologies (GoM, 2020). 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See: https://population.un.org/wpp/ United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2021. Transport sector NDC mitigation report. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 2015. Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2015. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Factsheet: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in East Africa. December 2015. See: https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/greenhouse-gas-emissions-factsheet-east-africa World Bank, 2020. World Bank online economic country level data; accessed 16 Sept 2020 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD 19 Working version; the final published version was submitted February, 2021 MALAWI’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 105 REPUBLIC OF MALAWI 106