National Action Plan on Air Pollutants

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON AIR POLLUTANTS DETERMINING NATIONALLY AVOIDED EMISSIONS 2019 r:1 ••• 0 0 oD OD ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Plan represents a collaborative effort mode possible with the support of many individuals in and outside the Ministry of Environment. From the original conceptualizing and initiation of this project, Ms. Miruza Mohamed (Ministry of Environment), Dr. Chris Malley (Stockholm Environment Institute), Dr. Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna (Stockholm Environment Institute), and Ms. Elsa Lefevre (Climate and Clean Air Coalition) has been instrumental in providing guidance throughout the many stages of its development. Very special thanks to Dr. Malley who contributed generously with his time in tirelessly delivering feedback, training and support till the very end. We are deeply grateful. We also acknowledge the important individual comments contributed by our national stakeholders and colleagues, especially Mr. Zammath Khaleel (Ministry of Environment), for graciously contributing his invaluable technical expertise during the development of the plan. This project was made possible with the generous funding of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition and prepared under the overall direction of the Ministry of Environment, Stockholm Environment Institute and Climate and Clean Air Coalition. LEAD AUTHORS Ms. Aminath Maiha Hameed (Ministry of Environment) Mr. Ismail Ajmal (Ministry of Environment) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Dr. Chris Malley (Stockholm Environment Institute) ARTWORK Mr. Ismail Ajmal (Ministry of Environment) FOREWORD f ew environmerntal issues so directly affect human health, and the health of the planet, as air pollution. Until recently, scientific and political conversations around climate change and air pollution had taken place separately. Nowadays, however, it is increasingly recognized that both issues are closely linked. Several air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources. Therefore designing mitigation strategies with both in mind certainly has the potential to deliver multiple benefits - by helping to achieve rapid near-term climate goals, as well as to achieve real world benefits for the ecosystem and human health. In order to develop an integrated analysis on ai'r pollution and climate change for this Action Plan, an air pollutant emissions inventory was compiled, which generated mitigation scenarios and estimated benefits of action. It is a significant step towards identifying science based policy decisions with regards to managing air quality. Although clean air is a basic human right, it has also become a luxury; with nine out of ten people worldwide breathing air declared unsafe by World Health Organization standards. Maldives, a relatively small contributor to global emissions, is not immune to the effects of air pollution. In 2013, almost 90% of air pollution during the dry period in Male' was recorded from transboundary sources. Certainly, air pollution can no longer be considered a local problem. It is very much a global phenomenon which requires international political leverage. The government of Maldives is committed to take concrete and strategic action to address the issues of air pollution to protect the environment, and safeguard human health. ACRONYMS BAU Business as Usual CCAC Climate and Clean Air Coalition C02 Carbon dioxide C02e Carbon dioxide equivalent GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas GWP Global Warming Potential Ha Hectare HFC Hydroflouro carbons IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Kg Kilogram Km Kilometer Km 2 Square kilometer kWh Kilo Watt Hour WTE Waste to Energy M Meter M 3 Cubic meter µg m-3 microgram per cubic meter air MT metric ton (tonne) MTPD metric ton per day NDC Nationally Determined Contrbution NO. Nitrogen oxides N02 Nitrogen dioxide PM Particulate Matter SDG Sustainable Development Goals SEI Stockholm Environment Institute SLCP Short Lived Climate Pollutants S02 Sulphur dioxide ToE Tons of Oil Equivalent UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WHO World Health Organization WTE Waste to Energy VOC Volatile Organic Compounds CONTENTS 01 INTRODUCTION IJ Air Pollution and the Multiple Benefits of Mitigation 2 1.2 Linking Climate Change and Air Pollution 3 1.3 Linking Human Health and Air Pollution I.I I.I.I Importance of Air Ouality in Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals I.I lS Air Ouauty in the Maldives 6 l6 Managing Air Ouali1y in the Maldives 7 1.7 Male' Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and Its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia (Male' Declaration) 9 1.8 Maldives Climate Observatory in Hanimaadhoo and Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution 9 1.9 Developing the Maldives' National Action Plan on Air Pollutants 9 1.9.1 Objectives 10 1.9.2 Methodology for Developing the National Action Plan on Air Pollutants 10 1.9.2.1 Developing an integrated air pollution and climate change analysis 11 1.9.2.2 Stakeholder Engagement 11 1.9.3 Challenges identified during the formulation of the Action Plan 12 02 EMISSION SOURCE SECTORS AND PROGRESSION OF POLLUTANTS 2J National Total Emissions 2.2 Air Pollutants 2.2.1 Particulate Matter 2.2.2 Nitrogen Oxides 2.3 Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) 2.3.1 Black Carbon 2.3.2 Methane 2.3.3 Tropospheric Ozone 2.3.l.l HFCs 2.1.1 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) 2.l.lJ Carbon dioxide 2.5 Emission Source Sectors 2.SJ Transport 2.5.2 Energy Demand and Power Generation 2.5.3 Waste 11.1 16 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 21 22 22 21.1 25 03 MEASURES TO REDUCE EMISSIONS 3.1 Maldives' Nationally Determined Contribution 3.2 Air Ouauty Strategy and Sectorial Measures 3.3 Emission Reductions from Priority Air Pollution Measures 3.4 Expected changes in air pollution concentrations and impacts 04 ACTION PLAN TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTANTS 4.1 Transport 4.1.1 Emission Reduction Potential of Transport Mitigation Measures 4.1.2 Actions to implement transport mitigation measures 4.2 Electricity Generation 4.2.1 Emission Reduction Potential of Electricity Generation Mitigation Measures 4.2.2 Actions to Implement Electricity Generation Mitigation Measures 4.3 Waste 4.3.1 Emission Reduction Potential of Waste Mitigation Measures 4.3.2 Actions lo implement waste sector miligalion measures 4.4 HFC Mitigation Measures 05 IMPLEMENTATION AND MONITORING THE MEASURES 5.1 Proposed Roadmap for Air Quality Management for the Maldives ANNEX A: ASSUMPTIONS REFERENCES 28 31 33 36 38 38 39 42 42 43 47 47 48 so 53 56 58 LIST OF FIGURES Figure l: The contribution of reducing air pollution on the path to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Figure 2: Total primary fine particulate matter (PM2.S) emissions in the Maldives between 2010 and 2032 disaggregated by major source sectors Figure 3: Total black carbon emissions in the Maldives between 2010 and 2032 disaggregated b~ major source sectors Figure 4: Total nitrogen oxide emissions in the Maldives between 2010 and 2032 disaggregated b~ major source sectors Figure 5: Total methane emissioms in the Maldives between 2010 and 2034 disaggregated by major source sectors. Figure 6: Total Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) emissions in the Maldives between 2010 and 2032 disaggregated by major source sectors. Figure 7: Total HfC emissions in the Maldives between 2010 and 2032 disaggregated by major source sectors. Figure 8: Total carbon dioxide emissions in the Maldives between 2010 and 2034, disaggregated by sector. Figure 9: Contribution of transport sectors to total transport emissions in the Maldives in 2010 Figure 10: Progression of PM2.S emissions from the transport sector between 2010 and 2032 Figure 11= Energy demand split by demand sector Figure 12: Progression of carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation. Figure 13: Progression of NOx emissions from the energy sector from 2010 to 2032 under the business as usual scenario Figurel4: Progression of methane emissions from the waste sector between 2010 and 2032 Figure 15: Progression of PM2.5 emissions from the waste sector between 2010 and 2032 Figure 16: Reduction of PM2.5 from measures Figure 17: Reduction of black carbon from measures Figure 18: Reduction of nitrogen oxides from measures Figure 19: Reduction of carbon dioxide from measures Figure 20: Reduction of methane from measures Figure 21: PM2.5 reductions from transport measures Figure 22: Carbon dioxide reductions from transport measures Figure 23: Nitrogen oxides reductions from energy measures Figure 24: Carbon dioxide reductions from energy measures Figure 25: PM2.5 reductions from waste measures Figure 26: Methane reductions from waste measures LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Pollutant emissions result in a variety of negative impacts, and reducing them can have multiple benefits to human health, climate and the environment (EC4MACS Interim Assessment, 2010) Table 2: Evaluating the existing framework for air quality management in the Maldives Table 3: total emissions from 2010 to 2030 Table 4: National total emission of air pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants and greenhouse gases in 2010 in the Maldives by sector in tonnes. Table 5: The 22 mitigation measures included in the NDC that are included in the National Air Pollutant Action Plan Table 6: The 3 mitigation measures included in the Air Quality Strategy that are included in the National Air Pollutant Action Plan Table 7: The 3 mitigation measures from key sectors that are included in the National Air Pollutant Action Plan Table 8: Summary of baseline and nationally avoided emissions Table 9: Emission reductions for transport mitigation measures by pollutant Table 10: Action Plan for Transport Sector measures Table 11= Emission reductions for Electricity Generation mitigation measures by pollutant Table 12: Action Plan for Electricity Generation Sector measures Table 13: Emission reductions for Waste mitigation measures by pollutant Table 14: Action Plan for Waste Sector - measures Table 15: Action Plan for Cooling and Refrigeration sector Table 16: National Air Pollution Action Plan Roadmap: Activities, Organizations and Time Lines. EXECUTIVE SUM MARY The formulation of the National Action Plan on Air Pollutants is the first time that the reductions in air pollution have been quantified for measures originally developed with the aim of reducing greenhouse gases. It also describes the pollutants in detail, including the emission levels of different pollutants in the Maldives, and their likely progression in the future. The analysis shows that in general, the largest sources of air pollutants and short-lived climate pollutants in the Maldives are transport and waste sectors, with electricity generation as a source for specific pollutants. However, electricity generation is the major source of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, and is simultaneously a major source of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Waste sector is the major source of methane, and is also a major source of many other air pollutants. Therefore, there is a p otential for developing integrated strategies to simultaneously improve air quality and reduce the Maldives' contribution to global warming even further. While many of the air pollutants also have a warming effect on climate, some pollutants such as organic carbon and sulphur dioxide have a cooling effect. Therefore, in order to understand the overa II effect of a mitigation measure on climate-relevant emissions, it is essential to align the air pollution inventory and scenario analysis, with analyses performed for greenhouse gases. The mitigation measures included in this Action Plan are in line with existing national plans to reduce greenhouse emissions from the key source sectors. To this end, the measures selected for this Action Plan were compiled firstly from the mitigation measures that have been included in the Maldives' long term climate goals, also known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), and then from the planned measures from different sectors which were not part of the NDC. These sectoral measures are collectively termed 'air quality measures' in comparing their effects with tlhe NDC measures. The NDC communicated that it intends to unconditionally reduce 1 0% of its greenhouse gases for the year 2030 compared to a business as usual scenario; and that this 1 0% could be increased up to 24% reduction in a conditional manner, contingent on the availability of financial resources. This Action Plan demonstrates that, the full implementation of both NDC measures and air quality measures result in a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 28.78% in 2030. The implementation of the air quality strategy measures resulting in a small additional reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, indicates that taking additional actions to improve air quality can be done without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also demonstrates that the full implementation of both NDC and air quality measures result in 59.3% reduction in PM2.5, 39.9% reduction in black carbon, and 26.97% reduction in Nitrogen oxides by 2030, compared to a business as usua I scenario. Importantly, for both air pollutants and greenhouse gases such as nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxides, it is the unconditional NDC measures which p roduce the largest reductions in emissions - signifying that it is these actions to which Maldives has p ledged to achieve with existing resources, which ultimately leads to the largest reductions in air pollution and greenhouse gases. 2 1.1 AIR POLLUTION AND THE MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF MITIGATION Emissions to the atmosphere result in a variety of negative impacts on both climate and air quality. Ala rmingly, air pollution does not consist of a single chemical substance, but a mix of several pollutants released from a wide range of anthropogenic acti vities and natural sources. Table 1 maps the effects of some major pollutants on human health, environment and on the climate. Hence while emissions to the atmosphere can result in a wide range of negative human health, climate and environmental impacts, it also means that developing strategies, which can reduce emissions of multiple pollutants from a particular source, have the opportunity to simultaneously mitigate multiple impacts. In addition, in many cases the implementation of these mitigation measures can also contribution to sustainable development benefits. TABLE ]: POLLUTANTS ANO THEIR IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH, CLIMATE AN[] THE ENVIRONMENT (EC4MACS INTERIM ASSESSMENT, 2010) Black Particulate Sulp hur N itrog en Volatile Ammonia Carbon Methane N it rous Hydro carbon Matter d iox ide oxides Organic dioxide ox.ide Flouro Compounds Carbons Health impacts Particulate Matter + + + + + + exposure (associated with p remature mortality, loss in life expectancy and a range of other non fatal health impacts) O zone (Premature + + + mortality and non-fata l respiratory diseases) Vegetation damage O zone + + + Acidification + + + Eutrophication + + Climate Impacts long-term wor ming + + Short-term worming + + + Key: '+' indicating that emissions have an impact. 1.2 LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION Short-lived climate pollutants or SLCPs 1 are among those pollutants most linked with both health effects from air pollution and near-term warming of the atmosphere. The main SLCPs are black carbon, metharne, tropospheric ozone and many hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). SLCPs all warm the atmosphere but SLCPs (apart from HFCs) are also air pollutants, with various detrimental impacts on human health, agriculture and ecosystems. They persevere in the atmosphere for as little as a few days or up to a few decades, in contrast to long-lived greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (C02) which con remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years after emitted. This means that reducing SLCPs can have an almost immediate and noticeable effect on climate, and on air quality and health for those living in p laces where the emission reductions occur. SLCPs are responsible for up to 45% of current global warming (IGSD 201 3). The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (201 3) warns that if global emissions of SLCPs continue to rise at the current rate (alongside long lived cli'mate pollutants), there will be disastrous effects such as rapid melting of glaciers, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and increased stress on wildlife and plants, among others. The IPCC (2018) special report on 1.5 degrees of global warming similarly states that fast, ambitious actions to reduce SLCPs are needed and are complementary to fast, ambitious reductions in C02 and other long-lived greenhouse gases to achieve this goal. According to report 'Well Under 2 Degrees Celsius: Fast Action Policies to Protect People and The Planet from Extreme Climate Change' by Ramanathan et al, (2017); one of the three indispensable policy actions to limit global temperature rise is the fast action on SLCPs, including the implemerntation of the Kigali Amendment to eliminate HFCs. Eliminating warming from HFCs through the Kigali Amendment can potentially achieve up to 0.5 degrees Celsius alone in avoided warming by 21 00 (Xu, Y., et al, 2013). 1 Also referred to as near-term climate forcers or NTCF in the IPCC fifth assessment report. The development of strategies that focus on reducing SLCPs can be useful to identify those mitigation measures that can simultaneously improve air quality and miti gate climate change. These strategies achieve this by reducing SLCPs themselves, which have air quality and climate impacts, but also because in many cases the mitigation measures to reduce SLCPs also reduce emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases that are co-emitted from the same source. Identifying the most effective measures to simultaneously improve air quality and reduce climate change can help to ensure that mitigation measures implemented to improve air quality do not increase global temperatures, and that climate mitigation measures simultaneously deliver local benefits through improved air quality. 3 4 1.3 LINKING HUMAN HEALTH AND AIR POLLUTION Air pollution is a major environmental risk to human health worldwide, and by reducing the levels of a i r pollutants countries can reduce the burden of disease from stroke, heart disease, lung cancer and respiratory diseases including asthma, both in adults and in children. Air pollutants go deep into the lungs and are taken up into the bloodstream and bodies. According to the World Health Organization, about one-third of premature deaths from stroke, chronic respiratory disease, and lung cancer as well as one quarter of deaths from heart attack are attributed to air pollution globally. In terms of health impact.s associated with air pollution exposure, the World Health Organization has estimated that 7 million premature deaths are attributable to exposure to outdoor and household air pollution,. including particulate matter and ground-level ozone exposure. Health impacts can result even from low levels of exposure to air pollution, signifying that any reduction in exposure would lead to benefits for human health. According to the WHO, in the Maldives, 48 premature deaths per year are attributable to a i r pollution exposure (World Health Organization 2016), which is approximately 25% of the number of deaths associated with smoking, according to the global burden of disease project (Vizhub.healthdata.org, 2019). 1.4 IMPORTANCE OF AIR QUALITY IN ACHIEVING THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS There is no headline goal on air pollution in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals or SDGs, which is a universal agenda for people, planet, prosperity and peace. However, air pollution is mentioned in 2 targets, under goal 3 on health and goal 11 on cities, and shares targets with other issues. According to the national report, Data Updates on Sustainable Development Goals 2018, there is currently no mechanism established to compile data for the indicators 3.9.1 on mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution, and 1 1.6.2 on annual mean levels of fine particulate matter in cities; and no nationally available indicator for these as well. The following figure 1 by the Scientific Advisory Panel of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (2016), demonstrates the importance of reducing air pollution and its contribution towards achieving the said goal. FIGURE ]: THE CONTRIBUTION OF REDUCING AIR POLLUTION ON THE PATH TO ACHIEVING THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS. (CLIMATE ANO CLEAN AIR COALITION, 2016) Ill • n • II II . II Reducing a ir pollution can help families become healthier, save on medical expenses and improve productivity. Improving public health by reducing the burden of disease from air pollution also increases the resilience of populations to environmental shocks and disasters. Furthermore, improved air quality andl decrease in the r ate of global warming, through SLCP emissions reduction, could help, reduce the rate of sea-level rise and the intensit y and frequency of extreme weather events, which have been linked to air pollution climate change. This would allow vulnerab le populations critical time to adapt. Air pollution ea n cause crop damage and affect food quality andl security. The UNEP / W MO a·ssessment ind icates that mitigating SLCPs emissions, in particular tropospheric ozone, can help avoid the loss of 52 mill ion tons of four staple crops maize, rice, soybean and wheat Air pollution is linked to respi ratory infection and cardiovascular disease. It causes increases in population morbidity and mortality. St rategies to reduce use of diesel powered vehicles, and consequerntly reduce black carbon emissions, in cities and promote public transport from clean energy sources together with active travel (walking and cycling) can both reduce air pollution exposure and increase physical activity, thereby contributing to impr oved human health. Pollutants such a .s sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from open fires and the combustion af fossil fuels mix w ith precipitation causing harmful acid rain that can compromise water quality, Untreo ted wastewater is also a significant source of methane emissions that contribute to the formation of tropospheric ozone, further impacting food security and public health . Electricity from renewable energy r ather than fossil fuels offer significant public health benef its through a reduction in air pollution. Air pollution impacts health, crop and forest yield s, ecosystems, the climate and the built environment, with consequences for productivity and economic growth. Ambient and indoor air pollution a lso has negative effects on the working environment and its safety. Power generation, industry and transportation are large contributors to air pollution. A new focus on de-creasing energy consumption and on improving sustainable and public transportation could progressively r educe pollution. Urban a reas significantly contribute to air pollution. Making cities sustainable could progressively improve the air quality . Chemicals released into the air incr ease a irpollution a nd contribute to harmful effects on human health/ Responsible p roduction and consumption could help to reduce these harmful chemica lls. Combustion of fossil fuels p lay a key role in the process of climate change, which places food, air and water supplies at risk, and poses a major threat to human health. Deposition of air pollutants on water may negatively affect its quality and life under water. It can lead to eutrophication and acidificat ion of fresh water bodies and accumulation of tox ic metals and Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), in fresh and marine areas. Emissions from combustion of fossil fuels mixed with p recipitation cause acid rain that poses a major threat to forests and ecosystems. Tropospheric ozone can also damage ecosystems, including forests. 5 6 1.5 AIR QUALITY IN THE MALDIVES Urban air pollution is a growing concern in the greater Male' region. The capital Mole' (a small island with an area of 1.95 square kilometres) is extremely congested, with a population density of 78,925 people per square kilometre (in 2014 ). This, coupled with high-rise buildings in Male' has led to disruption of air circulation within the island. Air pollution in Male' is generally thought to stem from transport, waste and construction related activities. Continued open burning of waste in the nearby landfill island of Thilofushi also contributes to the deteriorating air quality of nearby islands. A large seasonal impact on air quality in the Maldives was noted by Budhavant et a/ in 2015. This research provided the first year-round assessment of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and demonstrated that even at a remote location such as Hanimaadhoo., the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended levels for fine particulate matter were breached in 36% of the observed cases. According to their study, there was a considerable difference between the relative contribution of local pollution and long-range transboundary pollution to Male' in the southwest monsoon (the rainy season from May till December) and northeast monsoon (the dry season from January until March). The highest levels of pollution were observed in the northeast monsoon. The study also suggests that air quality in Male' is influenced by both domestic and long range transboundary sources, especially from incomplete combustion in shipping, transport and open burning of waste. Annual average contribution to Male' PM2.5 is 30% from local sources and 70% from distant sources. In the dry season, 90% of PM2.5 is from transboundary sources (Budhovant et al, 201 5) According to the WHO Global Data on Air Quality and Health, the annual level of PM2.5 (measured in µg / m3) exposure in Male' exceeds the WHO air quality guidelines (or what is considered the safe level of exposure) by 10%. According to the "Male' Declaration 1998-2013: A Synthesis" report, there were significant increases over time in mean annual concentrations of NO2 and ground-level ozone in the Maldives during the period of 2003 to 2012 recorded in Hanimaadhoo. Highest levels in 0 g / m3 of NO2 were recorded during November and the lowest was observed during June, using IVL Passive Samplers. From 2006-2012, the highest levels of ground level ozone concentrations (ppb) were recorded during September and the lowest levels measured during August. Maldives had low levels of SO2 (0g/ m3) throughout the year compared to other South Asian countries, with only significant levels being recorded during September, October and November from 2003 until 201 2. While transboundary air pollution has been monitored well in the Maldives, there are limited studies done on urban air quality with an absence of long term monitoring. 1.6 MANAGING AIR QUALITY IN THE MALDIVES Currently there is limited capacity, policies, information on, and mechanisms in place specifically for Air Quality Management. Addressing air pollution is indirectly covered in the National Environment Protection and Preservat ion Act, the National Solid Waste Management Bill, Wast e Incineration Guideline, Concrete Batch Plant Guideline, and Vehicle Emission Standards. The Maldives Constitution 2008 does not specifically mention air quality, however; Article 22 of the Maldives Constitution 2008 states that the State has a fundamenta I duty to protect and preserve the natural environment, biodiversity, resources and beauty of the country for the benefit of present and future generations, and that the State shall undertake and promote desirable economic and social goals through ecologically balanced sustainable development and shall take measures necessary to foster conservation, prevent pollution, the extinction of any species and ecological degradation from any such goals. Enacted in the year 1993, Act number 4/ 93 (Environment Protection and Preservation Act) of Maldives is an act to empower the mandated Ministry to allow necessary regulations to protect the environment. Although the Act does not directly cover air quality, it confers powers on the government to terminate any project that may create an undesirable impact on the environment. Hence it is noted that the primary duty of preservation of the natural environment, biodiversity, natural resources of the count!Ty, that will have an impact on the overall air quality and climate, rests with the State. Maldives has also ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, and will regulate and manage the import of HFCs in order to achieve the targets of the Kigali Amendment. Air polluti on control measures such as the existing Vehicle Emission Standards were developed without national data assessments and are currently not enforced. The Regulation Number 2013 / R- 58 (Waste Management Regulation) was enacted in 201 3 by the Ministry of Environment and Energy, under powers conferred to it under Act number 4 / 93 (Environment Protection Act) Section 7 and 8 to implement national policies regarding waste management. The Regulation states that hazardous waste shall not be burned under any circumstances and that waste that requires burning shall be burnt only under circumstances where burning is necessary, and stipulates that measures to mitigate the impact of smoke must be considered. The Waste Incineration Guideline (2016) is intended to facilitate the construction and operat ion of waste incinerators safely and to mitigate the adverse environmental and health impacts that may arise. This guideline should be considered minimum requirement applicable to all facilities. Environment Guidelines for Concrete Batch Plants (2014) was formulated to guide operations of concrete batch plants in an environmentally friendly manner. It mentions that consideration should be given to the location of the plant to minimize spread of dust by natural means, such as prevailing winds, and artificial means. The guiding principles of the Maldives Energy Policy and Strategy 201 6 consists of, among others; reducing the reliance on fossil fuels through diversification of the energy sector, improving energy efficiency and energy conservation, and encouraging adoption of low-carbon and renewable technologies. The Ma I dives Scaling up Renewable Energy Programme Investment P'lan (SREP IP) presents a plan to develop renewable energies on a large scale. The components under this plan consists of Accelerating Sustainable Private Investments in Renewable Energy Programme (ASPIRE), Preparing Outer Islands for Sustainable Energy Development Programme (POISED) and Technical Assistance for Renewable Energy Scale up Programme (TA). The Climate Change Policy Framework 2015 urges the use of climate friendly technologies and outlines a policy on strengthening a low emission development future and ensuring ener gy security in the Maldives. The objectives of this policy include ensuring that transport and electricity systems have minimal undesirable impacts on the environment and society, and moving towards environment friendly modes of transport . The current status for air quality management is summarized in Table 2. 7 TABLE 2: THE EXISTING FRAMEWORK FOR AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE MALDIVES 1. Framework on legislation and policy Right to clean air formulated in the consti tution National legislation on environmental protection Specific national legislation on air quality or clean air National legislation/ strategy/ plan on mitigating greenhouse gases (GHGs) and/ or air pollutants + Submitt ed Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) + 1. 1 Multiple benefits of both GHG and air quality mitigation recognized irn the following: In the National legislation on environmental protection In the National legislation/ strat egy/ plan on mit igating Greenhouse Gas emissions In the Nationally Determined Contribution In the National air quality legislation 2. Capacity to assess air quality Establishing national air quality monitoring mandated Ambient air quality standards established Ambient air quality standards regularly r eviewed and updated Ambiernt air quality standards linked to sectorial or national development plans Compliance with ambient air quality standards assessed 3. Arrangements for multi-stakeholder involvement Existing process for multi-stakeholder consultation + Provisions for citizens to file appropriate action in courts + An authority where citizens can report concerns on air quality + 4. National implementation measures Existing national air quality action plan with targets on pollutants aligned with national ambient air quality standards Greenhouse gas emissions aligned with the national air quality plan One or more development plans include actions to prevent air pollution + One or more development plans include actions to prevent GHGs or SLCP emission reductions + Existing action plan is reviewed and updated based on: Updated emission inventory results Scenario analysis Development agenda Has a national or regional emergency response plan for a high air pollution episode 8 Key: "+ " existing,"-" does not exist or not a va ilable. 1.7 MALE' DECLARATION ON CONTIROL ANO PREVENTION OF AIR POLLUTION ANO ITS LIKELY TRANSBOUNOARY EFFECTS FOR SOUTH ASIA (MALE' DECLARATION) In 1 998, the United Nations Environment Programme, together with the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) drew attention to the possibility of the impacts of transboundary air pollution in South Asfo. This initiative led to the adoption of the Male Declar,ation on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and Its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia, a l so known as the Male Declaration. Its objective is to aid the process of providing a clean environment through clean air. The Declaration calls for regional cooperation to address the increasing threat of transboundary air pollution and its possible impacts. 1.8 MALDIVES CLIMATE OBSERVATORY IN HANIMAAOHOO ANO LONG RANGE TRANSBOUNOARY AIR POLLUTION The Maldives Climate Observatory in Hanimaadhoo (MCOH) is an observatory for research on air pollution, climate and radiation. It is remotely located in the northernmost atoll of Maldives, about 400km to the north of Male'. MCOH is owned by the Government and jointly operated by the Maldives Meteorological Services and the MCOH international Science Teom through an agreement with UN Environment. The MCOH provides measurements of the composition of atmosphere over the Indian Ocean and is a receptor site of long-range transport of pollutants from emission regions of South Asia, Middle East and Africa. It is a key background site in South Asia and the Indian Ocean for atmosphere and climate studies in general, and particularly on monitoring how anthropogenic activities in the region are modifying air quality and climate. The continuous measurements and studies at this observatory include characterization of aerosols and rainwater including their content of black carbon, key gas species such as ozone and carbon monoxide, aerosol optical properties in the entire column and various aspects of solar radiation reaching the surface, a critical parameter determining the impact of pollution aerosols in brown clouds on regional climate. Black carbon is measured using the Aethalometer and automatic rain water collector; carbon monoxide is measured using the CO gas analyzer; particulate matter and total suspended particles (TSP) is measured using the high volume sampler. The Science Team at MCOH has provided expert advice to the Maldivian government on issues relating to air qu,ality and climate on several occasions. This includes preparing the bid for the Maldives to join the Climate and Clean Air Coalition and in preparing documents for meetings of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) group. 1.9 DEVELOPING THE MALDIVES' NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON AIR POLLUTANTS The Maldives is a member of The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC), a coalition committed to accelerating and incentivizing action to address key SLCPs. The CCAC is assisting the Maldives on 'Supporting National Planning for Action on SLCPs', to promote implementation of SLCP mitigation at the national level through integration of SLCPs into relevant national planning processes and development of appropriate decision-making frameworks. This national planning process has helped .Maldives to identify pathways for the implementation of actions to reduce air pollutants and SLCP emissions. 9 10 1.9.l OBJECTIVES The purpose of this national action plan is to identify the effectiveness of the planned and proposed mitigation measures to reduce air pollution emissions, which are aligned with the Maldives climate mitigation targets. This National Action Plan builds on existing plans and strategies in the Maldive.s that include mitigation measures (that can affect air pollution emissions), but for which the air pollution emission reduction potential has not yet been evaluated. The priority mitigation measures identified in this plan are therefore compiled from existing plans and strategies, meaning that the National Action Plan on Arr Pollution is completely aligned and complementary to the Maldives existing commitments on climate change mitigation. An integrated emissions and scenario analysis for air pollutants, greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants estimates the current and future national trends in air quality~ followed by the air pollution, GHG and SLCP emission reductions that could result from the full implementation of the identified air pollution mitigation measures. Finally, specific actions to increase implementation of these air pollution mitigation measures are identified, as well as actions to improve air quality management in general in the Maldives. The overall objectives of the Plan and the planning process are: To develop an integrated analysis of air pollutants, greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants to identify the major sources sectors of air pollutants currently, and how they are likely to change in the future. To identify mitigation measures in existing plans and strategies that will be effective at reducing air pollution emissions while simultaneously mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. To identify additional mitigation measures that could be taken to further reduce air pollution emissions. To quantify the multiple benefits of the identified mitigation measures for improving air quality and mitigating climate change. To identify possible ways to further mainstream action on air and climate pollutants into existing planning processes. To prioritize action and pave the way for coordinated air quality management. To encourage planned implementation of existing plans and in creating new action in different sectors. l.9.2 METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING THE NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON AIR POLLUTANTS To develop the National Action Plan on Air Pollutants it was necessary to develop quantitative analysis of air pollution and climate change emissions in the Maldives to identify current sources, and to evaluate the effect of the different mitigation measures included in the plan. In addition, because of the range of sources t hat emit pollutants in the Maldives, engagement with a wide range of stakehoUders was needed to develop this plan. 1.9.2.l DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS As part of the National Planning process, the CCAC assisted the Maldives to use LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) Integrated Benefits Calculator (IBC) soft ware to start compiling air pollutant emission inventories, generating mitigation scenarios and estimating benefits of action. The key feature of the LEAP software is its low initial data requirements. It is an excellent tool for organizing, developing and analysing energy and environmental data in a wide variety of settings. This tool makes it easy to develop different policy scenarios and select best solutions based on cost benefits analysis. While greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories have been developed and updated in the Maldives over the past years, there have been no emission inventories developed for air pollutants such as block carbon, fine particulate matter, organic carbon, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and ammonia. The LEAP software was used to build a national air pollutant emissions inventory, with efforts made to harmonize the data with the national GHG database. The approach was to incorporate this process within the Ministry team involved in developing the Biennia I Update Report inventory, so that the air pollutant inventory would be created in harmony with the GHG inventory; and also to make the process of updating and maintaining the air pollutant inventory more sustainable and effective. A country-specific dataset, with a complete emission inventory for the b ase year and baseline scenario to estimate emissions of SLCPs and air pollutants was developed in order to accommodate the necessary emission projections and mitigation scenarios. The baseline was set to the year 2010, but does not limit the addition of historical data. While many of the air pollutants also have an effect on climate (e.g. black carbon is a warming aerosol), some pollutants such as organic carbon and sulphur dioxide have a cooling effect on the climate. Therefore, in order to understand the overall effect of a mitigation measures on climate-relevant emissions, it is essential to align the air pollution inventory and scenario analysis, with analyses performed for GHGs. Hence the analysis developed for this National Air Pollution Action Plan not only used data from the national GHG database, but also estimated the emissions of air pollutants and GHGs in an integrated analysis. Annex A tabulates the data collected and key assumptions made in developing the dataset for the base year. 1.9.2.2 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT The Plan was developed in collaboration with the sectors in charge of developing and executing the mitigation measures listed in the Maldives Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Bilateral stakeholder consultati'ons were carried out throughout the process to identify the existing plans and for data collection. 11 12 l.9.3 CHALLENGES IDENTIFIED DURING THE FORMULATION OF THE ACTION PLAN The following challenges were identified during the development of this plan: Limited data on pollutant sources, emissions and levels of air quality to subsequently identify measures to mitigate concentrations. Therefore international default data in air pollution emission factors were employed in the absence of certain local data. Lack of human resources and technic,al expertise within the government with regards to air quality management. Difficulty in securing commitment from stakeholders in developing and implementing new actions for the Plan. Even though air quality management is a cross-cutting issue, many stakeholders do not see the benefits of air quality in contributing towards their development goals. (Formulation of new actions without support may also lead to an absence of ownership by the lead stakeholders. This would hinder the Plan from being adopted and implemented.) Absence of advocacy groups with a specific interest in air quality. This may be linked to a lack of public interest, which may be influenced by lack of awareness on the linkages of air pollution and health. Lack of a clear framework for implementation and enforcement at (and between) authorities, including regulatory and government requirements, institutional arrangements, and enforcement procedures. Absence of a national policy or strategy on air quality, leading to the absence of incorporation of air quality issues within climate change policies. Air quality management and climate change mitigation strategies must go hand in hand, especially in sectors with apparent overlaps e.g.: energy, transport and waste. In a local survey carried out for a study on Persistent Organic Pollutants (MEE, 2016a), only 11 % of participants considered air pollution the biggest environmental threat to the Maldives, whereas 47% of respondents believed it was global warming. EMISSION SOURCE SECTORS AND PROGRESSION OF POLLUTANTS This chapter describes the pollutants in detail, including the magnitude of emissions of different pollutants in the Maldives currently, and their likely progression into the future. The major sources sectors of emissions of each pollutant in the Maldives such as transport and electricity generation are also identified. 14 2.1 NATIONAL TOTAL EMISSIONS National total emissions were estimated from all major energy and non-energy sectors for the Maldives for all major air pollutants (nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, ammonia, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), organic carbon and carbon monoxide), short-lived climate pollutants (black carbon and methane), and greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide). Table 3 displays how the national emissions of these pollutants were projected to progress over the years from 2010 until 2030 under a business as usual scenario taking into account future projections of population a nd economic growth in the Maldives. Table 4 shows, for the base year 2010, the pollutant emissions split by major source sectors. TABLE 3: TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM 2010 TO 2030 Baseline: (kMT), Summary C ll') 0 0 Ql • Ql ~ u .0 N .§ :E Cl .'.. Ql C Cl :E 'i: 0 ... 'i: :::, "'Cl Cl .0 Cl "'3 a.. :::, a.. 0 ..c · Cl) ... u .. ~ , .~ '- E Q. X ... Cl - Ql t: 2 - 0 ~ ... +- E :::, ·-OU u Cl +- Cl ... ~ V) "'Cl 0 a.. 0 a.. 0 co :E :E 2010 0.91 0.24 1.78 2.12 0.20 310.82 2012 0.96 0.29 1.91 2.26 0.21 319.43 2014 1.00 0.29 1.98 2.35 0.22 373.17 2016 1.05 0.31 2.08 2.46 0.23 409.86 2018 1.112 0.33 2.20 2.60 0.24 459.68 2020 U 8 0.35 2.32 2.75 0.26 512.95 2022 1.24 0.37 2.44 2.89 0.27 570.36 2024 1.30 0.39 2.57 3.04 0.29 630.5 1 2026 1.36 0.4 1 2.69 3.18 0 .30 690.56 2028 1A2 0.43 2.80 3.31 0 .32 758.70 2030 1.48 0.45 2.92 3.45 0.33 835.34 In general, the largest sources of air pollutants and short-lived climate pollutants in the Maldives are the waste a nd transport sectors, and electricity generation for some specific pollutants e.g. SO2 and NOx, a nd greenhouse gases like CO 2 • This shows that several air pollutants and SLCPs have common sources, therefore designing mitigation strategies has the potential to lead to the simultaneous reduction of multiple pollutants, and greenhouse gases. Between now and 2030, e missions of key pollutants are expected to increase substantially if policy measures to reduce emissions are not implemented (under business as usual scenario), due to the growth of population and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The following sections describe in detail the major sources, a nd future projections of each air p ollutant and SLCP in turn. 41 V> C v, § Ql .!:! ~ Ql Ql C "'Cl C Ql Ql Ql ..c::c:::, C 0 ·- 0 "'Cl Cl) "'Cl +- ,.. 0 0 Cl .0 X .0 · 0 ·- Ql ..2 Cl) a. ..c ... 0 ... )( . X :Eo'-E Qi Cl C Cl .Q 20 u 0 C > Q 0 :: uo 0 u ~ z 4.22 7.24 0.91 23.71 965.22 4.92 8 .11 0 .94 27.55 985.86 5.19 9.03 0.99 32.96 1,169.01 5.71 10.57 1.04 41.27 1,286.98 6.37 11.98 1.11 50.92 1,445.81 7.02 13.34 1.17 60.46 1,616.84 7.69 14.70 1.24 70.01 1,804.37 8.37 16.07 1.31 79.57 2,002.66 9.05 17.42 1.38 89.11 2,201.43 9.75 18.77 1.44 98.64 2,433.63 10.49 20.11 1.51 108.18 2,699.81 TABLE 4: NATIONAL TOTAL EMISSION OF AIR POLLUTANTS, SHORT-LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS ANO GREENHOUSE GASES IN 2010 IN THE MALlllVES BY SECTOR. ;:::: ;::::- ~ ;:::-;::::- ~ ~ '£! [ ~ 0 $ ;::::- Q. 0 ., C: ~ N - "' 0 ., "'O -0: ., 0 ~ ~ ., > C ·.:c -e C: ;::::- ., "'O OJ -~ g: ;::::- 0 "'O ., ., ·.:c ·x 0 ~ "'O C: C: Q. ~ C: 0 ..0 ~- ·.:c ~ 0 0 0 "' u 0 - I- 0 0 0 g g, E ~ 0 u Q ~ 0 C: - .. 0 ., ., 'i: u 'i: ,; ., iOv C: C: C: .&;; ::, 0 .. 0, Q 0 0 u Q .;; u u C: 0, u ·5 E ~ ·5 g C: .&;; a -e , 0 .; .. , 0 0 E ,; 0 0~ o E ,.. ci:i ., <( V) ., i z ~ U- u:..: Fishing Trip s 4 3.04 68.35 124.47 0.0 21 .83 124.48 1,038.04 213.91 7.18 545.71 88.05 Guest Houses 0 .01 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.03 0.08 1.71 1.36 0.27 and Hotels . . Resorts 0.19 0.0 172.1 2 0.0 0.99 2.74 58.27 0 .15 46.18 9 .25 Transport 69.87 75.04 172.12 3.69 75.87 172.12 1,831.90 3,451.9 1 46.89 17,238.43 176.24 Waste 794.60 98.0 1 1,477 .62 168.87 75.39 1,794.25 738.81 3,407.57 831.29 5.n Electricity 0.75 2.50 7.46 2 1.75 172.10 29.86 606.49 7.46 27.99 151. 16 691.40 Generation 15 16 2 .2 AIR POLLUTANTS 2.2.l PARTICULATE MATTER The classifkotion of particles in air by size and composition are known as particulate matter or PM. It is not a single pollutant, but made of multiple components and is produced from emissions from multiple emission sources. The different sizes of aerosols are: Total Suspended Particles or TSP (aerodynamic diameter< 30 µm) PM 1 0 or course particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter< 10 µm) PM2.5 or fine particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter< 2.5 µm) The PM size affects its lifetime in the atmosphere, distribution and indoor-outdoor ratio. PM2.5 is extremely harmful to human health at high levels of short-term exposure and from prolonged exposure even to low concentrations. PM is also among the most significant sources of air pollution affecting human health according to WHO. In 2012, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified the exhaust from diesel engines, which consist mostly of particles as a group 1 carcinogen for humans. PM is made up of different pollutants that are emitted from a wide variety of sources. Some sources of PM2.5 are directly emitted into the atmosphere. These include black carbon and organic carbon, which are emitted during incomplete combustion, including from the use of diesel power generation, and waste burning as is common in the Maldives. Other components of PM2.5 are formed from emissions of gases, such as nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, ammonia and organic compounds. These gases react in the atmosphere to form small particles that contribute to PM2.5. Therefore, in order to reduce PM2.5 concentrations in the Maldives, mitigation strategies that target the major sources of all of these pollutants are required. A continuous measurement of PM2.5 at the MCOH had provided a forst long-term local record of PM2.5 levels in the Maldives. While this location is generally clean and far from any major local sources of air pollution, it was found that PM2.5 levels in background Maldivian air is near and many times above the recommended guidelines from WHO. In terms of direct PM2.5 emissions (not including emissions of gases which form PM2.5 in the atmosphere, which are described in the next sub sections), Figure 2 shows the trend in emissions by their source sectors between 201 0 and 2030 under the business as usual scenario. The largest emission source of direct PM2.5 emissions comes from the waste sector. Direct emissions of PM2.5 from the waste sector come from the open burning of waste that occurs on islands such as Thilafushi. The second largest source of primary PM2.5 emissions are from the transport sector, which is split 34.86% (60.66MT) from land transport and 65.14% ( 11.46MT) from marine transport. FIGURE 2: IDTAL PRIMARY FINE PARTICULATE MATTER (PM2.5) EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2032 DISAGGREGATED BY MAJOR SOURCE SECIDRS 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 Particulate Matter. PM2.5 in MT: Baseline , 0 N ~ ~ 00 0 N ~ ~ 00 0 N N N N N M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N N • Waste • Transport • Resorts • Residential • Guest Houses and Hotels • Fishing Trips • Electricity Generation 2.2.2 NITROGEN OXIDES Oxides of Nitrogen are released from vehicle emissions, burning of biomass and forests. High levels of nitrogen oxides contribute to the formation of acid rain, which in turn damages vegetation, buildings a nd pollute water bodies. Nitrogen oxides at high concentirations are also harmful lung irritants a nd can cause respiratory diseases including bronchitis a nd wheezing. They also react with volatile organic compounds to form tropospheric ozone, which is toxic to human health. Figure 3 below displays the trend of NOx emissions by source sector between 201 0 and 2030 under the business as usual scenario. The greatest levels of NOx was observed from the transport sector, with a significant projected increase. Electricity generation is also a large source of NOx that is projected to increase in the future if future increases in electricity demand are met with increases in diesel use for electricity generation. FIGURE 3: TOTAL NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES BETWEEN 2010 AN[) 2032 DISAGGREGATED BY MAJOR SOURCE SECTORS Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) . Baseline 12,000.00 10,000.00 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2,000.00 ON "<t -OOOg~~~~g 00000000000 NNN N NNNNNN N • Waste • Transport • Resorts • Guest Houses and Hote ls • Fishing Trips • Electricity G e neration 17 18 2 .3 SHORT -LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS (SLCPS) 2.3.1 BLACK CARBON Black carbon or soot, is a component of particulate matter (PM) ond, therefore, behaves much differently than GHGs. It does not mix well in the atmosphere; therefore its particles remain suspended in the air until they settle back on the surface, or become washed out by rain, or contribute to cloud formation. The average atmospheric lifetime of a single soot particle is only a few days. As a dark mass, black carbon particles absorb abundant amounts of energy, trapping heat and warming the climate. Like methane, for the equivalent mass emission, black carbon warms the climate more intensely than CO 2 over a short time frame, and to greater extremes. Despite lasting in the atmosphere for a few days, one ton of black carbon has a warming effect equal to 1,000 -2,000 tons of CO 2 over a 100 year period. Black carbon is co-emitted with other forms of PM, some of which have significant cooling impacts that offset a portion of black carbon's full warming impact. The emissions ratio of black carbon to cooling particulates varies by source, giving some mitigation strategies (i.e. cleaner diesel engines) a greater potential climate impact. It is important to note that all PM reduction strategies, however, provide important public health benefits by reducing PM2.5 concentrations that have negative health impacts. Black carbon emissions are the result of incomplete combustion of biomass or fossil fuels. Major sources of black carbon include biomass cooking stoves, diesel and two-stroke engines, and open-air-burning of waste. Figure 4 displays the trend in emissions of black carbon by their source sectors between 201 0 and 2030 under the business as usual scenario. There is a marked increase in emissions from the transport sector noticed over the years, whereas there is a smaller increase in emissions from the waste sector. The major sources of black carbon emissions in the transport sector are from the use of diesel engines both in marine and land transport. Black carbon emissions in transport come 1 9.72% from land transport and 80.28% from marine transport. FIGURE 4: TOTAL BLACK CARBON EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2032 OISAGGREGATEO BY MAJOR SOURCE SECTORS 500.00 450.00 400.00 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 Black Carbon in MT . Baseline 0 N ~ ~ 00 0 N -~ ~ 00 0 N N NNN M 00000000000 NN N . N N NN NN NN • Waste • Tra nsport • Resorts • Guest Houses and Hote ls • Fishing Trips • Electricity Gene ration 2.3.2 METHANE Methane (CH4) has an atmospheric lifetime of 1 2 years, but it has significant warming potential during that time. The Global Warming Potential or GWP of one ton of methane is equivalent to 21 tons of CO2 over 1 00 years and equivalent to 75 toms of CO2 over 20 years. GWPs allow comparisons of the warming impacts of different gases by measuring how much energy 1 ton of any given gas absorbs over a period of time, compared to 1 ton of carbon dioxide. Besides having a high warming impact of its own, methane also serves as a major contributor to the production of tropospheric ozone, (which is also a short lived climate pollutant, and warms the atmosphere). The largest contributor to global methane emissions is the production of oil and gas, and other major contributors include wastewater, la ndfills, and agriculture (e.g. through food and agricultural waste). Figure 5 below shows that the waste sector generates the most significant amount of methane in the M a ldives, under the business as usual scenario. FIGURE 5: TOTAL METHANE EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2034 DISAGGREGATED BY MAJOR SOURCE SECTORS. 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 M ethane in MT. Baseline 0 N ""'" -0 00 0 N ""'" -0 00 0 NNNNNM 00000000000 NNNNNNNNNNN • Waste • Transport • Resorts • Guest Houses and Hotels • Fishing Trips • Electricit y Genera t ion 2.3.3 TROPOSPHERIC OZONE Unlike the other G HGs, tropospheric or ground level ozone (a primary component of smog) is not directly emitted. Instead, it is the product of the atmospheric reaction of a number of precursor pollutants, including methane, nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VO Cs), and carbon monoxide (CO). Tropospheric ozone has an atmospheric lifetime of approximately 3 weeks. The major emission sources of ozone precursors methane and NOx are shown above. Figure 6 shows that for VOCs, which also contribute to ozone formation, the major source is the transport sector (Table 4). Apart from affecting global warming, tropospheric ozone affects impacts evaporation rates, cloud formation, precipitation l evels, and wind patterns. It also impairs the ability of plants to absorb carbon, thereby suppressing crop yields and subsequently harming ecosystems. These impacts mainly occur within the regions where tropospheric ozone precursors are emitted. FIGURE 6: TOTAL NON- METHANE VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND (voc) EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2032 DISAGGREGATED BY MAJOR SOURCE SECTORS. N on-Methane VOCs in KMT. Baseline 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0 N ~ ~ 00 0 N ~ ~ 00 0 NNNNNM 000000000 0 0 N.N. NN N. NN N.N NN. W aste • Transport • Resorts • Guest Houses and Hotels • G asoline Transport and Depots • G asoline Service Stations • Fishing Trips • Electricit y Generation 19 2.3.4 HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are a group of chemicals manufactured for use in refrigeration, insulation foam, and aerosols.. They were created to replace ozone de p I et in g chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), which were phased out as part of the Montreal Protocol. There are many varieties of HFCs, each with a different atmospheric lifetime and warming impact. The average HFC lifespan, weighted by their respective emissions, is 15 years. HFCs are the fastest growing set of GHG emissions, on pace to double within a decode. HFC emiss.ions can be reduced through the use of lower-GWP substitutes, coolant leakage repairs, and refrigerant reclamation programs. Most HCFCs and HFCs have GWPs that are thousands of times higher than the GWP of CO 2 • For example, according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, HFC- 1 34a has a GWP of 4,800. This means that the emission of 1 tonne of HFC- 134a will create the same contribution to global warming as the emission of 4,800 tonnes of CO2• FIGURE 7: WTAL HFC EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2032 DISAGGREGATED BY MAJOR SOURCE SECWRS. 20 100-Year GWP Direct (At Point of 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 Emissions) in KMT: Baseline i II 0 N "<t" -0 (X) 0 N '<:I' N N N. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N . • Waste • Tronsport • Resorts HFCs • Guest Houses a nd Hotels • Fishing Trips • Electricity Generation '° (X) N N . 0 0 N N . 0 M 0 N 2.4 GREENHOUSE GASES (GHGs) GHGs, which trap heat in the atmosphere, are the principal cause of climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) makes up for an estimated 7 6 percent of anthropogenic GHG emissions globally, followed by methane and nitrous oxide. Methane emissions in the Maldives are described above as it is also a short- lived climate pollutant. CO 2 has a much longer lifetime than Methane, and remains in the atmosphere for around a hundred years. In the Maldives, the analysis has shown that the major sources of greenhouse gases are also major sources of air pollutants. Electricity generation is the major source of CO2, and is simultaneously a major source of SO2 and NOx. Waste is the major source of methane, and is also a major source of many other air pollut ants. Therefore, there is a large potent ial for developing integrated strategies to simultaneously improve air quality and reduce the Maldives' very small contribution to global warming. Like air pollutants and SLCPs, emissions of GHGs are also projected to grow substantially in the future due to increase in population, and demand for energy. 2.4.1 CARBON DIOXIDE Fossil fuels usage is the primary source of carbon dioxide emissions globally. Figure 8 below also shows that fossil fuel use in electricity generation (mainly diesel fuel used for electricity generation) is by far the largest contributor of national CO2 emissions under a business as usual scenario between 2010 and 2034. FIGURE 8: TOTAL CARBON OIOXIOE EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2034, rnSAGGREGATEO BY SECTOR. Carbon dioxide (Non-biogenic) in KMT: 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 Baseline JJ I 0 N 'Sf -0 GO 0 N 'Sf N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N . N N N • Transport Resorts • Guest Houses and Hotels • Fishing Trips • Electricity Generation 0 GO N N 0 0 N . N 0 M 0 N 21 2.5 EMISSION SOURCE SECTORS Having described the main pollutants considered in this plan in Sections 2.2-2.4 above, the major source sectors identified, specifically transport, power generation and waste, are now considered in more detail in turn in the sub-sections below. 2.5.l TRANSPORT Following the growth in population and urbanization, there has been a rapid increase in the number of vehicles imported into Maldives, both for land and marine transport. Ac:cording to the State of the Environment 2016, the total registered vehicles have increased more than 262.2% from 2004 to 2014. The total number of vessels registered had increased from 7,01 6 in 2005 to 11,913 in 2014 by approximately70%(MEE, 2014). Energy consumption for sea transport in the atolls for passengers and goods has risen from 9 kilotonnes of oil equivalent irn 2002 to nearly 50 kilotonnes of oil equivalent in 2009, and is one of the fastest growing emissions sectors in Maldives (Fenhann, J.V. and Ramlau, M., 2014). Marine transport is estimated to contribute 155 kilotonnes of C02 equivalent (ktC02e) emissions, which accounts for 1 2% of total greenhouse gas emissions in Maldives, and is the largest source of GHG emissions among the sub categories of the transport sector (Fenhann, J.V. and Ramlau, M., 2014). The domestic aviation industry has also expanded and the numbers of aircrafts have increased from 40 in 2009 to 79 in 201 5 (MEE, 2017). Domestic aviation in Maldives has been a considerably small sector in terms of energy consumption and GHG emissions. In 2009 the contribution of domestic aviation or air transport was just 5% of total GHG emissions in Maldives (Fenhann, J.V. and Ramlau, M., 2014). It can be foreseen that aviation fuel consumption will increase at a faster rate in the short term and then level out in t he mid-term after market saturation. This is due to the new regional airports, and as tourists are increasingly switching to larger !land-based flights, which consume less fuel per passenger, rather than going by seaplanes (which comparatively consume more fuel per passenger). Not much available for the aviation sector in terms of mitigation. None of these plans and applicable laws and regulations in the Maldives requires specific measures to mitigate emissions from the transport sector as a whole. 22 When considering air pollutant, SLCP and greenhouse gas emissions together, the results from the analysis developed for this plan show that marine transport makes a larger contribution to emissions than road transport, but the emission estimates for marine emissions are more uncertain due to uncert,ainties in the emission factors for the engines used for marine vehicles in the Maldives. Road transport emissions occur in congested urban areas, and are dispersed over a smaller area. Finally, substantial growth in marine and road transport emissions is expected, if mitigation measures are not applied. The figure 9 shows how the different transport sectors contribute to emissions of different pollutants in the base year 2010. For instance, the highest share of direct PM 2.5 emissions were contributed from the marine transport of passengers and cargo, and from road transport emissions in the greater Male area. Note that fishing vessels are accounted under Industry sector, because its under the fishing industry and not used to transport goods or passengers. FIGURE 9: CONTRIBUTION OF TRANSPORT SECTORS TO TOTAL TRANSPORT EMISSIONS IN THE MALDIVES IN 2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% C C IC? 0 Q) 0 .,, "' Q) Q) 0 0 ·c "'O Q) u C "'O ..0 ..0 N ·x ::E :'Q 0 0 ·x ... ... ::E 0 .c 0 0 E 0 a.. X > +- 0 u u a.. E ci 0 ::E Q) C ~ 0 V ~ 4: ... C z ::E ·c V :::> Q) 0 ..Q - Ol C ~ C0 :5 0 0 V) ... ..0 + 0 z ... 0 u • Shipping: Tourism • Shipping: Passengers and cargo • Road: Greater Male • Road: O ther Ato lls Q) "'O ·x 0 ci C 0 ..0 ... 0 u Figure 10 below focuses on direct PM2.5 emissions and the emission trend for the different transport sectors between 2010 and 2032 under a business as usual scenario. Due to expected increases in economic growth and population, emissions from both marine and road transport emissions ore expected to increase substantially into the future. FIGURE 10: PROGRESSION OF PM2.5 EMISSIONS FROM THE TRANSPORT SECTOR BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2032 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 Particulate Matter Pm2.5 in MT: i 0 N 0 0 N . N Baseline n ,- ,- I '<:f -0 CO O N "'::f" -0 CO 0 NN~NNM 000000000 NNNN. N~NNN. • Tourism • Passengers and cargo 23 2.5.2 ENERGY DEMAND AND POWER GENIERATION Electricity generation is the fastest growing and largest consumer of imported diesel. More than 44% of diesel imported is used to generate electricity (MEE, 2017). The dispersed nature of the islands and the fact that there is no existing national grid, requires that each of the islands to have individually operated powerhouses. The Maldives' Energy Supply & Demand Survey of 2010 reports that approximately 31 3 kilo tonnes of oil equivalent of electricity were consumed in the Maldives that year, of which over 80% was generated from imported diesel oil. According to that report, this 313 kilo tonnes of oil equivalent contributed to around 1.04 million tonnes of CO2 e missions in 2011 . Despite the Ma I dives high dependence on fossil fuels, its contribution to global CO2 emissions in 2011 was le ss than 0.0035% (MEE, 2016). The results from the analysis to prepare this plan shows that electricity generation is a major source of GHG emissions (71.6% of total CO2 emissions) but also a significant sources of some air pollutant e missions from use of diesel to generate electricity. The sectors that have largest demand for electricity are resorts, residential and commercial and public services. Electricity demand is expected to increase substantially into the future, with a resulting increase in air pollutant and GHG emissions without a change in the electricity matrix or action to control emissions from power ge neration. Figures 1 2 and 1 3 below shows the increase in carbon dioxide a nd direct PM2.5 emissions from generating electricity in the Maldives and Figure 11 shows that the projected consumption of electricity for different sectors is highest in the for the residential secto r between 2010 and 203 2 under a business as usual scenario, but includes a substantial contribution from tourism and commercial a nd public services secto rs. 24 FIGURE 11: ENERGY OEMANO SPLlf BY DEMAND SECTOR Energy Demand Final Units Thousand GigaJoules: Baseline 25,000.00 20,000.00 15,000.00 10,000.00 5,000.00 0 ('I ""t -0 00 0 N ""t -0 CX) N N N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N ('I N ('I N N N ('I N N • Guest Houses a nd Hotels • Fishing Trips • Resorts • Industry • Transport 0 M 0 N FIGURE 12: PROGRESSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM ELECTRIClfY GENERATION. Carbon dioxide KMT: Electricity Generation Baseline 2,000.00 1,800.00 1,600.00 1,400.00 I 1,200.00 1,000.00 I 800.00 600.00 I 400.00 200.00 ~ 0 N ~ -0 00 0 N ~ -0 N N N . N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N. N N N N co N 0 N • Desalination Diesel • Fisheries Diesell 0 M 0 N • Male diesel • Other Atolls Diesel • Othe r Diesel • Resorts Diesel FIGURE 13: PROGRESSION OF NOX EMISSIONS FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR FROM 2010 TO 2032 UNDER THE BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) MT: Electricity Genera tio n Baseline 1,800.00 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 I- - 600.00 400.00 200.00 0 N "" '° co 0 N "" -0 co 0 N N N N N M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N N • Desalination Diesel • Fisheries Diesel • Male d iesel • Other Atolls Diesel • Other Diesel • Resorts Diesel 2.5.3 WASTE The Maldivian population and an estimated one million tourists that visit Maldives every year produce large amounts of waste, with tourists producing waste nearly six times that of the local populatfon, mostly in the resort islands and at the international airport. Therefore, Maldives is significantly challenged to sustainably manage and reduce the amount of waste it generates. An estimated 860 metric tons per day (mtpd), o r 312,075 metric tons (mt) per year, of solid waste is discarded in the Maldives, with about 21 % attributed to tourism and the balance divided among urban areas (65%) and island communities (35%) (Mo T, 2015). The bulk of the waste generated in the greater Male' region is transported daily by boat to Thilafushi, an island close to Male, and deposited on land where it is openly burned. Other inhabited islands follow a similar practice of open burning and, or dumping into the open sea. Resort islands also ship their waste to Thilafushi, or they treat their waste through methods such as local incineration and composting. While resorts are required by law to have on-site incineration facilities, the majority of resorts do not operate the incinerators that they have set up. The open burning of waste at Thilafushi and other islands across the archipelago can release highly toxic gases that include carcinogenic substances that impact air quality and public health and additionally threatens the country's' image as an environmentally sustainable high-end tourism destination. Due to the salty nature of the soil and the salt water table close to the surface, it is unlikely that this provides for proper conditions for anaerobic degradation and hence methane emissions would be relatively small. A survey conducted by MEE to assess Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) had revealed a low level of awareness on health issues associated with open burning of waste. The following are some key findings from the survey conducted for workers and occupants at Thilafushi island. Masks or respiratory protection was not used ( even when provided). Some workers resided less than half a mile from the open burning area. Workers expressed difficulties in breathing. Mean number of years for workers employed at Thilafushi is 6.2 (among those surveyed). 25 26 Figure 14 below displays the projected trend in methane emissions from the waste sector between 2010 and 2032 in a business as usual scenario. Without any mitigation measures, there is a constant increase in methane emissions estimated over the years especially from incinerating waste. Figure 15 demonstrates the progression of direct PM2.5 emissions from uncontrolled waste burning over the years. From this analysis, it is clear that the waste sector is a major source of GHGs, SLCPs and air pollutants. In the waste sector, waste incineration is the dominant source of these emissions in addition to methane emissions from domestic wastewat er. The expected increase in emissions if driven by expected increases in population and waste generation FIGURE14: PROGRESSION OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM THE WASTE SECTOR BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2032 Methane from waste sector M T: Base line 1,4 00.0 0 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 , 400.00 200.00 0 N ~ -0 CX) 0 N ~ -0 CX) ~ N . N . N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N . N N N N . N . N N N • Metha ne fro m Domest ic Water • Waste Incineration 0 M 0 N . FIGURE 15: PROGRESSION OF PM2.5 EMISSIONS FROM THE WASTE SECTOR BETWEEN 2010 ANO 2032 Particulate Matter Pm2.5: Waste Sector Basel ine 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0 N -.;r -0 ex:> 0 N ~ -0 ex:> 0 NNNNNM 00000000000 NNNNNNNNNNN • Municipa l • Resorts MEASURES TO It is important that the measures include/In this plan are In line with existing plans to reduce emissions from the key air pollution emission source sectors. To this end the mitigation measures selected for this plan were compiled firstly from the mitigation measures that have been included in the Maldives Nationally Determined Contribution (NOC) that will achieve its committed greenhouse gas emission reductions (summarised in Section 3.1). This plan is the first time that the air pollution rna::e~~s have been quantified for the mitigation measures included in the NDC that were originally selected with the-aim of reducing GHG emissions. Additional air pollution mitigation were then identified that aim to reduce emissions in those source sectors that are not considered in the NDC (Section 3.2). 28 3.1 MALDIVES' NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION In the Maldives' long term climate goals, also known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), it was communicated that it intends to unconditionally reduce 1 0% of its greenhouse gases for the year 2030 compared to a business as usual scenario; and that this 1 0% reduction could be increased up to 24% in a conditional manner, in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by availability of financial resources, technology transfer and capacity building. After analysing the key sectors of the economy, 22 mitigation options were presented. The following methodology was adopted in the NDC to assess the mitigation options. Establishing an energy balance as disaggregated as possible, based on the lotest available data which was derived from 2011. The energy balance was converted to GHG-emissions for 2011 by use of IPCC conversion factors. Energy balance of 2011 was projected to 2030 under a BAU scenario. Under this scenario, energy services by 2030 were assumed to be produced and consumed with the same technologies and efficiencies as were assumed for the 201 1 energy balance. The growth assumptions used for Maldives national planning were taken into account in developing the 2030-projection. Based on inter alia existing studies mitigation options in various sectors of the economy were identified and further analysis was undertaken by the "Greenhouse Gas Costing Model" (GACMO). For each option selected, mitigation technology and baseline technology were identified and described in terms of capital costs, operational costs, energy demands and GHG emissions. These data were collected in GACMO and abatement costs per mitigation option were calculated accordingly. TABLE 5: THE 22 MITIGATION MEASURES INCLUOEO IN THE NOC THAT ARE INCLUOEO IN THE NATIONAL AIR POLLUTANT ACTION PLAN Source Mitigation Measure (Desc,ription, Target, T imeline) sector 1 Renewable Install 15MW PY systems in greater Male' region : This referred to the energy Male region solar PY programme involving installation of minimum 15 MW PY systems (11 MW for Male and 4 MW for Hulhumale) and implemented under a FIT-scheme 2 Renewable Install additional 12,MW PYs in the greater Male' region energy 3 Renewable PYs with net metering: Introduces solar PYs for residential applications energy under net metering scheme. The option assumes 1000 residential applications of 1 kWp each will be implemented by 2030. 4 Renewable PYs in outer islands: Solar PY systems will be implemented in the islands to energy cater for 30% of the daytime peak electr ic'ity demand of the islands. s Renewable PYs in small islands, 1 00% solar: Under the SREP Investment Plan, 10 energy island grids are envisaged to be targeted full transformation to solar PYs with storage. For this option, this was extended to compr ise totally 60 islands categorized as small islands. 6 Renewable PYs on resorts: Larger solar water heaters with electrical back-up has been energy identified as a replacement for electrical water heating a t hotels and at resorts to reduce emissions 7 Large solar water heater 8 Renewable 20MW wind eower and 25MW LNG: STELCO is envisaging a wind / gas energy hybrid system with up to 25 MW LNG plant for base load and up to 20 MW wind power. 9 Waste-to- Thilafushi waste to energy: This project on establishment of a waste-to Energy energy (WTE) plant at Thi lafushi with installed capacity for electricity generation of around 4 MW is envisaged under the SREP Investment Plan. 10 Waste-to- Regional waste to energy projects: The projects on establishment of new Energy regional waste facilities in Hithadhoo and Yandhoo are envisaged under the SREP Investment Plan. il"he two facilities are supposed to receive about 100 tonnes of waste per day and to joint·ly provide for 2 MW installed electricity generation capacity. 11 Energy Uegrades of sy:stem efficiencies in diesel eowerhouses: The present thermal efficiency efficiencies of diesel generators at outer islands were understood to be 26% on average and di.stribution losses to be 20%, hence leading to overall system efficiencies of 32%. The generation efficiency can be improved by replacement of inefficient generators, careful combination of the generators during the time of the day to match the demand of the island, and better maintenance of the gene1rators. Similarly, the distribution losses can be improved by upgrading the grids to ensure that the correct sizes of cables and transmission equipment are being used in the distribution 12 Energy Energy: e'fficient air conditioning at resorts: replace conventional air efficiency conditioners used in the tourism sector with more energy efficient ones 13 Energy Efficient air-conditioning in households: The purpose of the project is to efficiency replace conventional air conditioners used in residential areas with more energy efficient ones. 14 Energy Energy efficient refrigerators: For this option annual electricity demand of efficiency energy ef ficient refrigerators was assumed to be 0.3 MWh versus 0.86 M Wh of conventional types. The entire stock in 201 2 was estimated to comprise some 80,000 refrigerators of which 70% was assumed being conventional types with low energy efficiency. For the mitigation option conventional types were envisaged being replaced by energy efficient types. 15 Energy LEDs for domestic lighting.: Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFLs) are mainly efficiency used for lighting in households ond businesses. CFLs hove a useful lifetime of 6000 operating hours equalling 2.3 years. In this option all CFLs were envisaged being replaced with Light Emitting Diodes (LED) consuming 40% less electricity than CFLs and with lifetime equalling 1 0 years. Conditional or Unconditional measure Unconditiona I Conditional Unconditiona I Unconditiona I Conditional Conditional Conditional Conditional Unconditiona I Unconditiona I Unconditiona I Conditional Unconditiona I Unconditiona I 29 16 Energy LED tl!Jbes for public sector: Replace conventional tubes in public service Unconditional efficiency buildings w ith LED tubes. Replacing conventional tubes in public service buildinqs with LED tubes reduce enerqy consumed for liq htinq 17 Energy Centralized cooling S)'.Stems in new buildings: Replace conventional air Conditional efficiency condit ioners used in t he commercial sector with more energy efficient centralized air conditioning systems. It has been shown that such systems can reduce input enerqy by about 38%. 18 Energy LED tubes for street lighting: There are around 2200 svch applications of Unconditional efficiency Sodium Vapour Lamps for street lighting including 1500 at harbours. For this option, LED tubes were envisaged for all 2200 applications plus for new aoolications required as per the growth rate assumed for electricity 19 Energy Energ)'. efficient water pumping: Conve-ntional pumps ore envisaged being Conditional efficiency replaced with energy efficient pumps offering efficiency gains at 60% over conventional pum[Ps. 20 Transport Better maintenance of motorbikes: In 20 l 2 there were about 36,000 Conditional motor bikes on Mole and about 10,000 motor bikes on other islands. Their estimated petrol demand was around 1 7 million litres which may grow to 25 million litres according to growth expectation for the transport sector. For this option energy consumption was assumed to decrease by means of improved maintenance. 21 Bioethanol Bioethanol 1 5% blend in all gasoline: Follows the target in the National Strategy for Sustainable Development (NSSD) of 20% biofuel in transport in 2020. In this option we assume that 1 5% of the gasoline is replaced by bioethanol, in order to stay below the blend wall, the maximum amount of ethanol that can be blended g iven the legal and practical constraints. 22 Bio diesel Biodiesel 20% blend in diesel: follows the target in the National Strategy for Sustainable Development (NSSD) of 20% biofuel in transport in 2020. In this option we assume that 20% of the diesel for road and sea transport is repllaced by biodiesel 30 3 .2 AIR QUALITY STRATEGY AND SECTORIAL MEASURES An draft Ministry of Environment document for air quality strategy was drawn up with a focus on the following strategies: Preparing and maintaining air pollutant emission inventories. Establishing systems to monitor ambient air quality. Shifting towards cleaner technologies, fuels and practices. Fostering research, development and impact assessments of air pollution regionally and nationally. Human resource development for effective air quality management. Global participation and collaboration for air quality management. Development of sustainable financing mechanisms for air quality management. Mitigation actions within the draft air quality strategy that could be analysed using LEAP software, were included in this Action Plan. TABLE 6: THE 3 MITIGATION MEASURES INCLUDED IN THE AIR OUALlfY STRATEGY THAT ARE INCLUDED IN THE NATIONAL AIR POLLUTANT ACTION PLAN Source sector Mitigation Measure Transport Revise and set vehicle emission standards: Where a ll vehicles meet the equivalent of the Euro IV emission standards by 2030, and 2 . W here a ll vehicles meet the equivalent of Euro VI emission standards by 2030. Transport Develop marine engine emission standards Energy and Set fuel quality standards Transport Conditional or Unconditional measure N/ A N / A N/ A 31 32 The following measures were identifie d as planne d and/ or mitigation measures from sectors., but which were not part of the NDC. For the purpose of simplicity, these sectorial measures below were grouped as 'air quality' measures in comparing them with the NDC measures. TABLE 7: THE 3 MITIGATION MEASURES FROM KEY SECTORS THAT ARE INCLUDED IN THE NATIONAL AIR POLLUTANT ACTION PLAN Source Mitigation Measure Conditional or sector Unconditional measure Refriger ation Sensitizi ng fisheries sector on HFC phase-down and Kigal i Amendment: N/A and Cooling Prepare the fisheries sector for the introduction and diffusion of HFC alternat ives Refrigeration Sensitizi ng tourism sector on HFC phase-down and Kigali Amendment: Prepare N/A and Cooling the tourism sector for the introduction ali1d diffusion of HFC alternatives 3.3 EMISSION REDUCTIONS FROM PRIORITY AIR POLLUTION MEASURES The table 8 below summarizes the all the avoided emissions according to the action plan, compared with the baseline emissions. TABLE 8: SUMMARY OF BASELINE ANO NATIONALLY AVOIOEO EMISSIONS Whole of Maldives .,., 0 "' -::E " :E CL .; ... C ., 0 t ::: 0 0 ..0 C ::E :::E 0 0 -e V ., ., u 0 0 0 0 ·c: V :5 :5 ·c: 0 u 0 0 ~-=- ·.:: - ·.: - E-o, - -, ... , -, E , 0~ ..2~ 0 !i: 0 !i: <( ~ co - "-- CL Baseline 1A76. emissions 98 450.36 2,918.17 3453.67 334.17 2030/ unit Ai r quality strategy 764.70 296.56 1,482.22 1740.01 174.01 measures (2030)/ unit NDC measures 899.28 376.93 1,891.08 2123.66 191.47 (2030)/ unit lmplementoti on of all mitigation 571.7 1 270.57 1,170.53 1 278.70 113.07 measures 2030 Total emission reductions (Baseline 905.28 179A3 1747.64 2174.97 221.10 emissions all mitigation measures) % reduction 61.29 39.92 59.89 62.98 66.17 The effect on emissions of implementing all measures (All measures), as well as the NDC measures (NDC measures, Conditional NDC, Unconditional NDC), and the Air Quality Strategy measures individually was evaluated and the emission reduction potentials for the different pollutants is shown in Figure 1 6-20. For the pollutants PM2.5 (Figure 16), block carbon (Figure 17), and NOx (Figure 1 8)1, the full implementation of all measures could reduce emissions by 59.3%, 39.9%, and 26.97% in 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. Both the air quality strategy measures (related to the transport sector)1, and NDC measures (related to the waste sector) contribute to this substantial reduction. Hence, this plan clearly shows that u ·c: 0 Ol 0 ~ 0 ., ~ 0 ""O > ·;; ., ""O ""O ·x ., 0 ·;; C "' C: 0 0 0 0 ""O ::E i5 C: i: § ., - ., ., ~ 8.- C C: C: ::, ""O Ol- 0 0- 0 .s::; ·- 0 , c: E;: £;::- ..0 , ..0 , Q. X - ~ ::E - ::E -~ "5 -~i ·- ~ 0 0 'sL ., ~ 0 -- 0~ V) ""O - z ZV- ;:E V :s.: V 1,511. 2,699. 943.05 10.49 20.11 108.18 85 81 295.17 8.36 15.46 1,010. 98.60 2,621. 03 93 1,060. 1,978. 654.14 9.4 3 17.70 105.04 99 93 224.43 7.66 14.71 831.25 98.24 1,922. 59 718.62 2.83 5.40 680.60 9.94 777.22 76.02 26.97 26.85 415.02 9.18 28.79 implementation of the NDC measures, which are designed to reduce GHGs, will also deliver substantial reductions for air pollutants and are key to improving air quality in the Maldives. For CO 2 , the implementation of all measures would reduce its emissions by 28.79% in 2030 (Figure 1 9). This is mainly from full implementation of the NDC measures. The implementation of the air quality strategy measures result in a small additional reduction in CO2 emissions, showing that taking additional actions to improve air quality can be done without increasing GHG emissions. Finally, implementation of the mitigation measures in this plan will also reduce methane emissions by 45% by 2030 (Figure 20). 33 34 FIGURE 16: REDUCTION OF PM2.5 FROM MEASURES Reduction of PM2.S in MT: Mitig atio n Me a sures 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0N'<f-OOO0N'<f-0000 NNNNNM 00000000000 N N N N N N N N N N N ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ All measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures FIGURE 17: REDUCTION OF BLACK CARBON FROM MEASURES Black Carbon reductions MT: Mitigation Measures 500.00 450.00 400.00 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ All measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures FIGURE 18: REDUCTION OF NITROGEN OXIDES FROM MEASURES Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Reductions MT: 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 Mitigation Measures 0N'<f-OOO0N. '<f-0000 - - - - N N N N N M 00000000000 NNNNNNN. NN. NN. ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ All measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures FIGURE 19: REDUCTION OF CARBON DIOXIDE FROM MEASURES Reductions of Carbon dioxide KMT: 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 Mitigation Measures 0N'<f-0 OO0N'<t-0000 N N N N 01 M 000000000-00 NNNNNNNNNNN ~ Air Quality Strategy measure:s ~ All measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures FIGURE 20: REDUCTION OF METHANE FROM MEASURES Methane reductions MT from mit igation 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 measures 0 N ·~ ~ 00 0 N ·~ ~ 00 0 NNNNNM 00000000000 NNNNNNNNNNN ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ A ll measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures 35 36 3.4 EXPECTED CHANGES IN AIR POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS ANO IMPACTS Section 3.3 shows that the implementation of the mitigation measures included within this plan could lead to substantial reductions in emissions of air pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants and greenhouse gases. The effect that these emission reductions would have on the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Maldives, and the health impacts associated with exposure to PM2.5 depends on several factors. The first factor is the contribution of emissions from activities in the Maldives to PM2.5 concentrations in the Maldives. The magnitude of PM2.5 concentrations in the Maldives are determined not just by emissions in the country, but also by the transport of emissions from other countries,. from international shipping, and from natura l sources. l here has been limited monitoring of PM2.5 in the Maldives, but one s.tudy, Budhavant et al. (2015) measured PM2.5 concentrations in Male' and at the Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo (MCOH) in 2013. AnnuaU average PM2.5 concentrations in 2013 were 19 µg m-3 in Male', and 13 µg m-3 at MCOH; and were higher during the dry season compared to the wet season. They also calculated within the span of the year, 30% of the PM2.5 concentration in Male' was due to local pollution, and the remainder was from long-range trans boundary pollution. During the dry season, the local contribution decreased to 8% on average, and increased to 50% during the wet season. Therefore, while the implementation of the measures to reduce a ir pollution and SLCP emissions in the Maldives could make a substantial contribution to reducing PM2.5 concentrations in the Maldives, e.g. to meet the WHO air quality guidelines; regional emission reductions can also make a substantial contribution to achieving this as well. The second factor that determines how the implementation of these measures will affect PM2.5 concentrations in the Maldives is the contribution that emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, NOx, SO 2 , NH3 and natural sources make to PM2.5 concentrations in the Maldives. Currently there is no measurement of the compositi'on of PM2.5 in the Maldives to understand this contribution. However, the analysis in this Plan shows that each of these pollutants would be substantially reduced (by 30-60% in 2030 compared to the baseline scenario) by implementing these measures, and therefore a reduction in PM2.5 concentrations would be expected. For both of these factors, continuous monitoring of air pollution at monitoring sites in the Maldives would allow the effect of implementing these measures to be monitored and long-term trends in PM2.5 concentrations tracked over time. Finally, the third factor that determines the effectiveness of these measures is the relationship between exposure to air pollution and negative health impacts in the Maldives. There have been no studies conducted in the Maldives that assess this relationship, but there is a large body of evidence from international studies conducted in North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America that show that exposure, even at low levels of PM2.5 is associated with a wide range of negative health effects, including premature mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and lung cancer, ,and non-fatal health outcomes including asthma and other respiratory conditions in adults and children. In their most recent comprehensive review of health effects of air pollution, the WHO concluded that for long and short-term exposure to PM2.5, there is evidence of harmful health effects at even very low levels of PM2.5 exposure (eg: below 10 µg m-3); and that in the absence of a threshold for harmful health effects, public health will benefit from any reduction in PM2.5 concentrations (The Regional Office for Europe of the World Health Organization, 201 3). This infers that by implementing the above measures which target the emissions sources of PM2.5, any reduction in PM2.5 concentration as a result from implementation will improve public health in the Maldives. ACTION PLAN TO REDUCE AIR The following section breaks down the sectorial actions for the implementation of the mitigation measures identified and evaluated above that lead to reductions in emissions of air pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants and/or greenhouse gases. The main area of focus for NDC actions is switching to alternative energy options for electricity generation, and this is challenged by the limited availability of space, geographic dispersion of population and isolation of islands. The measures in the air quality strategy focus on the main sources of air pollution, including the transport (land and marine) and waste sectors. 38 4.1 TRANSPORT 4.1.1 EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF TRANSPORT MITIGATION MEASURES Implementation of the mitigation measures in the transport sector could reduce transport sector emissions by 20.67% by 2030 for primary PM2.5, by 23.77% for black carbon, 19.92% for NOx and 21.53% for C02 • The a i r pollution reductions occur ma inly due to the measures outlined in the air quality strategy measures such as setting emission standards for vehicles. C02 emission reductions from the transport also occur mainly from measures under the air quality strategy. TABLE 9: EMISSION REDUCTIONS FOR TRANSPORT MITIGATION MEASURES BY POLLUTANT Transport Li) 0 0i :E :E Cl.. Cl.. ... ... C QI QI t t 0 0 0 ..0 C :E :E ... 0 0 ..0 QI QI u ... 0 0 0 u 0 ' ·c u 3 3 ·c ... QI 0 -~ u 0 :> -0 ~ ·.; - E- ..c ·-m- u- ,... a. )( -oi 0 +- ... +- ... +- !: +- 3 .2 i - :E 0 :E 0 :E <( $ cc ~ a..~ a..~ <.I) -0 ~ Baseline emissions 247.03 235.77 573.42 573.42 13.87 337.52 2030 Air quali ty strategy 23 1.66 179.72 454.88 454.88 1.82 204.60 measures (2030) NDC mea sures 247.03 235.77 573.42 573.42 13.87 288.00 (2030) Implementation of all mitigation 23 1.66 179.72 454.88 454.88 1.82 16 1.71 measures 2030 Emission reduction (Baseline 15.37 56.05 118.53 118.54 12.05 175.81 emissions all mitigation measures) % reduction 6.22 23.77 20.67 20.67 86.-87 52.09 QI = V) ., -0 0 C QI V> 0 :> -0 QI > 0 QJ 0 Q, ·x -0 ·x QI !: 0 ·x C C 0 0 0 0 0 ..c u ::E 0 C ., u QI QI QI·- C C C 0) ::E § .: 0 g -;:- g -;:-o ..c c 0> ~ .a 0~ ... ~ .. ~ i 0 ... ~ QI., zo :E $ 0~ Z~ U~ U~ 6,777.99 14.55 238.43 98.6 1 700.99 5,427. 17 12.55 220.61 94.08 623.11 6,777.99 14.15 201.79 98.6 1 606.43 5,427.17 12.55 188.87 94.08 550.09 1,350.82 1.60 49.56 4.53 150.90 19.92 11.30 20.78 4.60 21.53 FIGURE 21: PM2.5 REDUCTIONS FROM TRANSPORT MEASURES Particulate Matter PM2.5 Reductions 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 MT: Mitigation Measures ON'Sf-OCOON'Sf-0000 .- N N N N N M 00000000000 NNNNNNNNNNN . Air Quality Strategy measures . All measures . Baseline . NDC measures FIGURE 22: CARBON DIOXIDE REDUCTIONS FROM TRANSPORT MEASURES Carbon dioxide Reductions KMT: 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 Mitigation Measures 0 N 'Sf '° co 0 N 'St '° co N N N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N . Air Quality Sitrategy measures . All measures . Baseline . NDC measures 0 (") 0 N 4.1.2 ACTIONS TO IMPLEMENT TRANSPORT MITIGATION MEASURES There is a lack of data on vehicle emissions in the Maldives, and the current emission standards are not enforced. Therefore the actions in the action plan are to undertake a measurement study, to revise the standards, a nd to develop an effective enforcement mechanism. There is also an absence of a transport mas.ter plan, however the following actions are in line with the broader government policies eg: on biofuels in transport, and based on activities which can further increase mitigation efforts, such as introducing vessel emission standards and fuel standards. 39 TABLE 10: ACTION PLAN FOR TRANSPORT SECTOR MEASURES cl .,, Q) Q) Q) ~ ~ ti C: .,, .,, :, .Q Q) ti 0 0 a. 0 Q) .,, 0 >< E ~ w a. c cl .§ Q) 0 Q) -;;; C: .,, -£ ·o E -~ 0 ti C: Q) C: 0 c 0 0.. ~ .Q a. Q) C: .§ V C: E ~ C: ~ ti .§ Q) .Q Q) - 0 O> :, :, 0.. 0 0 ... .,, cl cl 4- 0 0 0 ~ C: .§ c Q) ~ E t; Q) 0 Q) 0 Q) E cl C: ~ E ~ .!l -.,, Q) 0 ~ ·;;; .!:: Q) ~ ti ~ .,, E C: ~ C: ·5 0 ai c Q) :, 0 Q) a. 0 :, a. cl ·t 0- E .,, ..c: 0 0 >< Q) Q) Q) .... z V) u w ... 4'. "" i= "" 0 Sl : 69.3 Collect primary and kMt CO2/ 2030 secondary data 1. Where all vehicles 219 Mt BC Build national vehicle meet the equivalent of the Land Revise and / 2030 emissions inventory, test MEE, Euro IV emission set vehicle emissions using PEMs US$ 2020- standards by 2030, and 1 transp emission Revis.e vehicle emission 95,000 2030 MTA, 2. Where all vehicles ort S2: 69.3 EPA standards kMt CO2 / standards meet the equivalent of 2030 Propose enforcing Euro VI emission 219 Mt BC/ mechanism and provide standards by 2030. 2030 training to enforcers Collect primary and Develop <BC 37.3 secondary data Build national vessel Marine marine Mt> emissions inventory US$ 2020- MEE, 2 transp engine M TA, N/ A ort emission PM2.5 or Develop vessel emission 100,000 2030 EPA standards NOx standards Propose enforcing mechanism Stakeholder meetings Energy Detailed survey and/ or and Set fuel analysis of imported fuel US$ 2020- MEE, 3 Transp quality - quality 100,000 2030 MEA N/ A standards Develop fuel quality ort standards Develop roadmap In 2012 there were about 36,000 motor bikes on Explore best maintenance Male and about 10,000 motor bikes on other Transp practices for motorbikes islands. Their estimated ort/ 77.0 kMt Cond uct an awareness petrol demand was Conditi Better CO2/ 2030 campaign to promote around 17 million litres 4 onal maintenan BC: benefits of improved 0.0 2017 MTA which may grow to 25 ce of maintenance of motorbikes 2027 NDC motorbikes Establish maintenance million litres according to measur service providers that are growth expectation for e easily accessible in all the transport sector. For parts of the country. this option energy consumption was assumed to decrease by means of improved maintenance. 40 5 Bioeth Bioethanol 29.1 kMt Explore financial scheme to 0.0 2020- MEE Follows the target in the anol 15% CO2 finance bioethanol blend (Capital 2025 and National Strategy for blend in reductions in Promote bioethanol fuel to costs STO Sustainable Development all 2030 use in transport instead of unknown (INSSD) of 20% biofuel in gasoline gasoline ) transport in 2020. In this Introduce mechanism for option we assume that import and distribute 15% of the gasolline is bioethanol fue l replaced by bioethanol, in order to stay below the blend wall, the maximum amount of ethano,I that can be blended given the legal and practical constraints. Explore financial scheme to follows the target in the finance bioethanol blend National Strategy for Biodiesel Promote biodiesel fuel to Sustainable Development Biodies 20% use in transport instead of 2020 MEE (INSSD) of 20% biofuel in 6 el blend in diesel 2025 and transport in 2020. In this diesel Introduce mechanism to STO option we assume that import and distribute 20% of the diesel for road and sea transport is biodiesel fuel replaced by biodiesel 41 42 4.2 ELECTRICITY GENERATION 4.2.1 EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION MITIGATION MEASURES Implementation of the mitigation measures in the power generation sector could reduce the power sector emissions by 33% by 2030 for primary PM2.5, by 27.57% for black carbon, by 31 % for NOx and by 32.92% for C02 (Table 11 ). These emission reductions can be brought about by renewable energy and more energy e fficient methods. Importantly, for both air pollutants and GHGs (NOx and C02 ), it is the unconditional NDC measures which produce the largest reductions in emissions. TABLE 11: EMISSION REDUCTIONS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION MITIGATION MEASURES BY POLLUTANT Electricity Generation p ~ p ~ I.(') N 0 -p ~ ~ p p :E c.. c.. :E p '- '- ~ ~ C ~ QI QI V, ~ ~ QI QI 0 0 0 p "C "C -£ C ~ ~ ·;;: ·;;: 0 ~ 0 ..0 QI QI .2 0 u ' 0 a a 0 "C C u ' ·c u "'3 "'3 ·c :5 QI 0 u ·f 0 ..c 0) ~ 0 ~ u ·t E 0.. .l: ..2 0 0 E "'3 0 a:l c.. a.. 4: V) z Base line 2.07 6.88 20.54 82.14 59.83 473.45 1,668.51 emissions 2030 Air qua lity strategy 2.07 6.88 20.54 82.14 59.83 24.62 1,668.51 measures (2030) NDC measures 1.43 4.98 13.86 55.18 39.77 288.80 1,149.46 (2030) Implementat ion of all mitigation 1.43 4.98 13.86 55.18 39.77 15.02 1 149.6 measures 2030 Emission reduction (Baseline 5 18.91 0.64 1.90 6.68 26.96 20.06 458.43 emissions - all mitigat ion measure.s) % reduct ion 30.7 27 .5 32.52 32.83 33.53 96.83 31.10 9 7 u ·c 0 ~ 0 ~ .!! p 0 ~ d) ~ o- :'Q > I- QI QI~ >< "C p 0 ·;;: C ~ C 0 "' 0 0 ..c "C ~ i:5 +- C QI QI :, C C C ~ g 0 0 0 £ ..c ..0 C E ... ' 0 0 QI 0 0 zu ~ u u 20.54 77.01 41 5.84 1,902. 10 20.54 77.01 4 15.8 4 1,902. 10 180.99 63.55 1440 .9 1,275. 5 78 1440 .9 1,275. 180.99 63.55 5 78 . . 13.45 1025.1 626.32 160.45 1 . 781.16 17.47 . 246.52 32.92 FIGURE 23: NITROGEN OXIDES REDUCTIONS FROM ENERGY MEASURES Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) reductions in MT: Electricity Generation Mitigation Measures 1,800.00 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0 0 N N . ~ '° 00 0 00 0 N NN N 0 N ~ '° 00 N N N N N 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ All measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures 0 M 0 N FIGURE 24: CARBON DIOXIDE REDUCTIONS FROM ENERGY MEASURES Carbon dioxide reductions KMT: Electricity Generation Mitigation Measures 2,000.00 1,800.00 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0 0 01 N ~ '° 0 0 0 01 01 N . 00 0 N ~ '° N N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0( N . 0( N N 00 N 0 N ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ All measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures 0 M 0 N 4.2.2 ACTIONS TO IMPLEMENT ELECl RICITY GENERATION MITIGATION MEASURES The Maldives SREP Investment Plan is currently the most comprehensive plan supporting renewable energy investments for the greater Male' region and outer islands. The current initiatives to introduce renewable energy are important steps in transforming the country into a low carbon development economy which is a lot less re liant on fuel imports. 43 TABLE 12: ACTION PLAN FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION SECTOR - MEASURES ~ C ~ .,, Cl) .e C 0 :, 0 " ·a g C ,£ 'E ]' 0 "O 0 ~ 2 ~ 0 .; ~ E ~ " ., t; E No. t; C :£ a ·;:; 0, E -;::: E 0 0 Cl) C £ Cl) C u -2 ~ ., 'j'; Cl 0 E 0 0 E 0 C e Cl ~ (I) ~ .5 )( :, .§ Cl) 1 Cl) " :, E w "O a. E (I) a. " 0, :. 0 ~ .§ E "' 0 "' 0 I= .§ ,£ V 0 28.0 kMt This referred to the Mole CO2 / 2030 • Conduct study to explore US$22.5 region solar PV programme Renewabl Reductions availability of roof tops e energy/ ln>tall l 5MW PV Explore cmd introduce million involving installation of systems in • for 2017- MEE, minimum 15 MW PV systems 7 Unconditio greater Mcile' 0.07Mt BC/ financing mechanisms for 15MW ,2025 STELCO (11 MW for Male and 4 nal NDC region 2030 Installation of solar PV. peak MW for Hulhumale) and measure reduction ~ Design and implement solar solar imp lemented under a FIT 20MT PV systems scheme NOx 28.0 kMt . Conduct study to explore US$22.5 ln>tall additional CO2 / 2030 availability of roof tops million 15MW PVs in Reductions • Explore cmd introduce for 2020- MEE, 15 MW solar PV for util ity 8 the greater f inancing mechanisms fo r 15MW 2025 STELCO scale was considered 0. 1 Mt installation of solar PV. Male' region BC/ 2030 Design and implement solar peak . solar reductions PV systems • Conduct an oware-ness campaign target to Estimate Introduces solar PVs for Renewabl 1 Mt CO2 / households on the ,linancial d residential applications ~nder e energy 2030 and environmental benefits US$ 1.5 net metering scheme. The 9 I PVs with net of install ing solm PV in million 2020- MEE option assumes 1 000 Uncanditio metering BC reductions homes. for 2025 residential applications of nal NDC • Explore and introduce - l MW 1 kWp each will be measure financing mechanisms in solar PV imp lemented by 2030. households for installation of solar PV • Identify islands where solar Estimate Renewabl 178.3 kMt PV systems can be d Solar PV systems will be e energy/ CO2/ 2030 implemented US$ l 3.8 MEE imp lemented in the islands to 10 Uncondilio PVs in outer . Identify power demand of million 2020 ond cater for 30% of the daytime nal NDC islands 0.6 Mt BC/ the islands cmd growth for 9.2 2025 utilities peok electricity demand of 2030 . Introduce f inancial schemes MW the islands. measure peak . Design and implement solar PV systems for the islands solar Under the SREP Investment Renewabl 14.8 kMt Pion, 1 0 island gr ids a re e energy/ PVs in small CO2/2030 US$ envisaged to be targeted full 11 cond ition a islonds, 1 00% • Design and implement solar 109.1 1 2016- MEE transformation to solar PVs I NDC solar 0.3 Mt BC/ PV systems million 2022 with storage. For this op-lion, 2030 this was extended to measure comprise tot ally 60 islands categorized as small islands. • Review related government policies Renewabl 57.2 kMt . Promote use solar PV sola r PV corresponding to e energy/ CO2/ 2030 through government policies US$ MEE, 30% of installed capacity of 12 conditiona PVs on resorts and financial schemes 167.35 2020- MoT, res.ort islands grids WCIS I NDC 0.2 Mt BC/ • Explore and introduce million 2030 and explored. It is assumed more 2030 financing mechanisms for resorts than 30MW solar PV will be measure installation of solar PV. inst alled in resorts by 2030 . Design and implement solar PV systems 44 13 14 15 16 Renewabl e energy/ Large solc,r conditiono 1 NDC water heater measure Renewabl e energy/ 20MW wind conditiono power and I NDC 25MW LNG measure Energy Upgrades of efficiency / system U d . . efficiencies in neon 1110 d" 1 nal NDC ,ese measure powerhouses Energy efficiency .. / Energy eff,c1ent Unconditio a ir conditioning nctl NDC a t resorts measure 2 kMtCO2/ 2030 < BC reductions O> • • • • \...onduct a detailed study on current W<1ler heoters used in l,otols and resorts Cr,eote awareness on benefi ts of using solar water heaters Estimate Promote use solar waters d US$ through government pol icies 670,000 cmd financia l schemes for 1 00 Develop and implement a units p ion to phase out or reduce conventional wator heaters witth discussion among hotol an;d resort owners or management 41 .3 kMt C:02/ 2030 • Explore financial scheme to f inance LNG cmd wind system Estimate d US$97 million 0 .1 Mr BC/ 2030 • Design and implement LNG cm.d wind power system 710.2 kMt CO2/ 2030 • Conduct a detailed study of Power Houses on the efficiency of the pov,,er houses. US$ Conduct an awareness 6 1.0 7 2.6 MT BC/ 2030 63.2 kMtCO2/ 2030 0.2 Mt BC/ 2030 campaign ta rgeted to million utilities on efficient operation of powor houses. Explore and introduce financing mechanisms for utilities for projects l o imp rove efficiency in the power system • Conduct on awareness campaign to raise awareness of the benefi t of more energy efficient air conditioners Explore ways to increase av·ailabiliry of efficient cIir conditioners at more affordable prices US$ 4.73 million 2017 2025 2020 2025 20 17 202 1 20 17 202 1 MoT Larger solar water heaters with electrical back-up ha.s been identified c,s a replacement for electriccil water heating cI1 hotels and at resort s to reduce emissions STELCO is envisaging o M EE wind/ gas hybrid system with STELCO up to 25 MW LNG plant for base load and up to 20 MW wind powor. FENAK A MoT Tho present efficiencies of thermal diesel general'ors at outer island.s were understood to be 26¾ on average and distribution losses to be 20%, hence leading l o overall system efficiencies o f 32% . The generation efficiency can be improved by replacement of Inefficient generators, careful combination of the generators during the l imo of the dc,y to match the demand of tho island, and better maintenance of the generators. Similarly, Iha d istribution losses con be improved by upgrading the grids to ensure that the correct si.z·es of cables and transmission equipment are being used in the distribution replace conventional a ir conditioners used in the tourism sector with more energy efficient ones 45 . Conduct on oworeness compoign to roise oworeness of the benefit of more energy efficient oir Energy conditioners The purpose of the project is Eff iciency/ Eff icient oir- . Explore ways to increose US$ 2017 to reploce conventionol oir 17 Condiition conditioning in ovoilobility of efficient oir 15.05 2021 MEE cond itioners used in ol NDC households conditioners ot more million residentiol oreos with more meas.ure offordoble prices. energy efficient ones. . Explore ond introduce finoncing mechonisrm for 234.6 kMt purchosing more efficient oir CO2/ 2030 conditioners <0.8 Mt BC For this option onnuol • Conduct o study on vorious electricity demond of ene rgy / 2030> types of refrigeroto rs use-d efficient refrigerotors wos in households ond businesses. ossumed to be 0.3 MWh . Conduct on oworeness versus 0.86 MWh of Energy compoign torget to owore conventionol types. The entire efficiency benefit of more energy US$ stock in 201 2 wos estimoted 18 I Energy efficient efficient refrigerotors. 62.55 2017- MEE to comprise some 80,000 Unconditio refrigerotors . Explore ond introduce o million 2021 refrigerotors of whidh 70% nal NDC financing mechonisrm for was assumed being meas.ure replocement of conventional types with low refrigerators. energy efficiency. For the . Explore ways to increose mitigotion option ovollobility of offordoble con,ventional types were refrigerotors in the morket env-isoged being reploced by energy effident types. . Conduct o detolled study on the bulbs used in lighting in Compoct Fluorescent Lights household and businesses (CFLs) are mainly used for • Conduct on owareness lighting in households ond Energy 12kMt compoigns to owore benefit businesses. CFLs hove a useful efficiency CO2/ 2030 of more energy efficient US$ lifetime of 6000 operating 19 I LEDs for lighting 42.37 2017- MEE houn equalling 2.3 yeors. In Unconditio domestic lighting 2021 this option oll CFLs were nal NDC BC reductions • Explore and introduce million envisoged being reploced financing mechonisrm for with Light Emitting Diodes meas.ure replocement of bul bs, (LED) consuming 40% le~s . Explore wc,ys to increose electricity thon CFLs ond with avoilobility of offordable lifetime equolling 10 yeors. LED bulbs ond lights . Conduct o detailed study on Energy the bulbs used in lighting in Reploce conventionol tubes in efficiency 1 k:Mt CO2/ public service buildings 0.0 pub lic service buildings with I LED tubes for 2030 • Explore f inancing mechonism {implem LED tubes. Replacing 20 Unconditio public sector for replacement of the entation By 2030 MEE con·venlional tubes In public nal NDC BC reductions conventionol lighting, costs a re service buildings with LED . Develop and implement o zero) tubes reduce energy meas.ure pion to phose out consumed for lighting conventional lighting. Energy Centrolized 39,8 kMt Estimate potential monetary Reploce conventionol oir efficiency CO2/ 2030 . US$ con dltloners used In the 21 I cooling systems savings from installing 42.37 By 2030 MEE commercial sector with more Cond ition in new buildings 0.1 BC/ centra lised cooling systems energy efficient centrolized 46 4.3 WASTE 4.3.1 EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF WASTE MITIGATION MEASURES Implementation of the mitigation measures in the waste sector could reduce the waste sector emissions by 7 4.78% by 2030 for primary PM2.5, by 7 4.79% for black carbon, and by 7 4.79% also for NOx (Table 1 3). There is a large reduction in all pollutants in 2021 due to the implementation of a measure that would stop burning on Thilafushi. This is a very effective measure for reducing emissions in this sector and results in an immediate reduction in emissions from the waste sector. The main waste sector reductions come from implementing the NDC measures, with additional benefits from the air quality strategy measures. TABLE 13: EMISSION REDUCTIONS FOR WASTE MmGATION MEASURES BY POLWTANT .,., 0 <'< :::E :::E Q. c. Q) Q) C 0 i: :i:: 0 0 ..c C :::E :::E 0 0 ..c 41 41 u I.. V 0 a 0 0 ·2 u "5 '"5 ·2 .!. 41 0 ::, "O g, ;::- ~i=" V V ..c ·-·.;::- t ,= E - Q. X -I.. I- E , "5 .2 ~ I.. :::E ..2 :::E 0 :::E 0 :::E <( ~ 0- ""- Q. - c. (/) "O Baseline 1138.0 emissions 1189.07 146.66 8 2685.00 252.71 112.82 2030 Air quality strategy 492.16 60.70 measures 915.21 l 1 1 1.33 104.60 46.69 (2030) NDC 1138.0 measures 612.01 75.48 8 1381.95 130.07 58.07 (2030) lmplementati on of all mitigation 299.80 36.98 557.51 676.98 63.72 28.44 measures 2030 Emission reduction (Baseline 889.27 109.68 580.57 20008.0 188.99 84.38 emissions - 2 all mitigation measures) % reduction 74.78 7 4.79 51.01 7 4.79 74.79 74.79 V ·2 0 O> 0 41 i 41 :,; 0 "O > -~ -0 ·x 41 0 C ~ C 0 0 "O 0 ~ C i: § 41 Cl> i g C C C> 0 o o- C E ;::- £,= ..c I .!: ~ 0~ 0 O :::i:, 41 :::E z ZU- :::i:, U 1191.8 1105.59 5099.24 7 8573.95 457.60 21 10.59 707.87 3548.77 569.04 2624.54 791.10 441 2.95 278 .75 1285.69 574.28 2161.77 3813.55 826.84 617.59 6412.18 74.79 74.79 51.81 74.79 47 48 FIGURE 25: PM2.5 REDUCTIONS FROM WASTE MEASURES Particulate Matter PM2.5 MT: Waste Sector Mitigation Measures 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0 N ..... -0 CX) 0 N -.;t -0 CX) ~ N N N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N . N N N N N N N . N . N ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ All measu res ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures FIGURE 26: METHANE REDUCTIONS FROM WASTE MEASURES Methane Reductions MT: Waste Sector Mitigat ion Measures 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0 N 0 0 N N "t -0 0 0 N N CX) 0 N ~ -0 CX) N N N N . N . 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N ~ Air Quality Strategy measures ~ All measures ~ Baseline ~ NDC measures 0 (V) 0 N 0 (V) 0 N 4.3.2 ACTIONS TO IMPLEMENT WASTE SECTOR MITIGATION MEASURES The National Solid Waste Management Polky 2008 indicates that regional waste management centres will be demonstrating sustainable solutions with economic and environmental benefits, and that waste to energy is an attractive option in terms of addressing emissions as well as managing waste. The developments of these regional waste management facilities are currently ongoing. TABLE 14: ACTION PLAN FOR WASTE SECTOR - MEASURES ~ ~ " £ u ::, '5 C 0 0 Sl .2 Q. .. R .E E ~ C ..., " 0 " .! No. C i: ·;;; E 0 C " C E 0 Q. ;::: 0 .. 1 .E V C E C ~ ·5 .. .Q .. 0 l Ol ::, ::, Q. 0 £ 0 ..., 0 E ~ .E E ;; .. V ., .. 1i l ~ E ..., g E ~ ·;;; ~ .. ~ ~ E C .!: .. v C 0 ~ ~ E .. 0 ·;; " ~ ::, Q. ·5 er E i: 0 0 )( " .. 0 V, u w 4: "' i= "' The wa1ste generated in the regilon and brought to Thilafushi will be baled to Stop open . Procurement of By mid p revent open burning and 24 Waste burning in 86 Mt BC/ 2030 N/A MEE spontaneous combustion. Thilafushi incinerators. 20 19 This ba led waste will be vsecl in Measure .25 in order to generate energy. • Explore and This project introduce a on Waste financing establishment of a waste to Thilafushi 25.6 kMt C02/ mechanism to to-energy (WTE) p lant at 25 Energy/ 2030 implement c, WTE US$ 57.78 2023 STELCO, Thilafushi with installed Conditio waste to Mt47.2 Mt BC/ million TFC capacity for electricity nal NDC energy 2030 p lant generation of a round 4 . Design and .MW is envisaged under measure implement a WTE the SREP Investment Plan. system Waste . Explore and The p rojects on introduce a establishment of new to Regional finoncing regional was1G facilities in Energy/ waste to 4. 1 kMtCO2/ year mechanism to US$ 10.42 MEE, Hithadhoo and Vandhoo 26 Uncondi 2023 tional energy 23.7 BC reductions Implement a WTE million WAMCO a re envisaged under the NDC projects pla nt SREP Investment Plan. The . Design and two facilities a re measure implement a WTE supposed to receive system about 100 tonnes of waste per day and to jointly provide for 2 MW installed e lectricity genera lion capacity. 49 50 4.4 HFC MITIGATION MEASURES The consumption level of HCFCs at the end of 201 5 was at 40% while HFCs account for 60% of the total refrigerant consumed in the country (MEE, 2017 a). According to a survey conducted on the use of ODS alternatives in the Maldives; there is a projected overall growth of 15% per annum for the period of 2016-2030. The tourism sector was found to be the largest consumer of refrigeration and a ir conditioning equipment and refrigerants in the Maldives. More than 13% of the total ODS alternatives imported into the country is directly imported by the tourist establishments and a large amount imports by the local suppliers are also consumed in tourism sector. Furthermore, 1 6% of the ODS alternative refrigerant imported into the county is for use in fisheries sector. With the Kigali Amendment, Maldives would need to address the issue of the increasing use of HFCs and institutionalize policies creating a more conducive environment to implement the provisions under the Amendment. The primary object of these proposed mitigation measures are to facilitate the ratification and early implementation of the Kigali Amendment. In this regard, the activities outlined in are designed to enhance the capacity of the country to implement, monitor and report as well as generate broad based support from relevant stakeholders most importantly the fisheries and tourism sector and the public for the Kigali Amendment. TABLE 15: ACTION PLAN FOR COOLING ANO REFRIG1ERATION SECTOR ~ ~ C " .2 0 ~ 0 -;;-., E ~ c .! C ~ .. ,: 0 ., 0 E V .2 a .,; ·o .. C 0 t; 0 c C 'ii .. E O> No. ~ .. ., 0 .5 0 E ~ 0 .. E .e .. £ j e ., 0 :;; 'ii c .§ c ;; 'ii .; 0 O> 0 5 V 2 .. E 2 !¼ g ~ .. .. "' ·5 E u rr ;= < .. "' . A deto ile-d survey o f all the morine c0td land vesse ls in the fi sheries sector for the use of HFC and a lternatives and identif ying the barriers . Sector specific training for the fishedes sector technici ans and RAC servicing 10% tedrnicions on theory and p ractical aspects, phase . Develop technical guidelines on the safety down of Sensitizing and hand I ing of HFC a lternatives HFC, by fisheries sector on . Revise the proposed bank loans scheme to 2029, Prepare the fisheries sector for' 27 Coo1lin9 and HFC phase-down include options for promoting HFC US$ 30%by MEE the, introduction and d iffusion of Refrigeration and Kigali alternatives, conduct additional consultation 40,000 2035, HFC alternatives Amendment and ra ise owarene$$ on bank loans (an 50%by output b eing developed thre>ugh GEF 2040 and funded low~corbon developmeM p roject, 80%by focvsing also on RAC sector) t o encourage 2045 private companies to switd, over to low GWP a lternatives . Assisr comp anies to come up with on intemal plan for switching to low GWP alternatives and to p revent introduction of HFCs in the sector. . Conduct a high-level meeting for l'he 10% managers of rho resort to Inform and d iscuss phase the Kigali amendment a way forward down of Sensitizing tour ism . Signing with inte rested resorts on partnering HFCs by Coo11ln9 and sector on HFC (MOUs) with NOU on phasing down HFCs US$ 2029, Prepare the tourism sector f or the 28 30% by MEE introduct ion and d iff usion of HFC Refrigeration phase-down and . Initiate the ozone cmd climate friendly 16,000 2035, a lternatives Kigali Amendment resort award 50% by . s~ctor sp(!clflc ,raining for the sector 2040 and technicians and RAC servicing technicians on 80% by theory and practical aspects. 2045 IMPLEMENTATION AND MONITORING THE MEASURES ..... . 52 As a Non-Annex 1 Party to the UNFCCC, Maldives will be reporting on its NDC measures. A monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework will be implemented to account and compare the progress of the NDC measures with the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Relevant MRV methods will be proposed for each measure proposed in the NDC and the implementing agency will be responsible in undertaking the MRV process for all the NDC measures. Although it would be ideal to incorporate air quality emission monitoring into the NDC MRV framework, there are barriers to achieving this, including lack of real-time monitoring of ambient air quality and an absence of national emission factors to produce the best available data for this purpose. In the absence of national emissions factors however, the current air pollutant inventory will still be able to provide an indicative value of the co-benefits of mitigation. But detailed assessments and continuous data collection still needs to be done before air pollutant monitoring can be incorporated into the NDC MRV framework. Since measuring air pollutants is less straightforward compared with measuring carbon dioxide emissions, more data is required to measure. report and verify other air pollutant emissions. Nevertheless, it is still possible to incorporate certain air pollution indicators into the MRV process. such as the health benefits of reduced pollution levels. Coordination with academia may be established and strengthened in order to perform s11Jch localized air pollution studies, which can then feed data into the MRV process. The approach to monitoring the air quality measures can be separately undertaken in parallel to the timeline for the Biennial Update Reporting on the NDCs, and without an overlap, since the air quality monitoring framework will only monitor the remaining measures. that are not covered by the MRV framework for the NOC mitigation measures. A monitoring framework for air quality measures will be developed in 2020 and will be used by the implementing agency to measure the progress and level of success of these measures. The air pollutant inventory will be re evaluated by the Ministry of Environment every two years in harmony with the biennial update reporting, based on the updated availability of any new data gathered and new sectorial mitigation measures and projects. Based on the re-evaluation, the projection of air pollutants will be reassessed to indicate the progress in achieving reductions in emission levels. Similarly, GHG emissions will continue to be characterized alongside air pollutant emissions in the inventory, in order to quantify the co-benefits of implementing the mitigation measures. However, it will be emphasized that these will not be the official GHG estimates. As part of the GEF-6 pipeline project on Integrated, Sustainable and Low Emissions Transport in the Maldives an MRV framework for sustainable low emissions transport will be designed and made operational, using the existing emission inventories as baselines. 5.1 PROPOSIEO ROADMAP FOR AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT FOR THE MALDIVES l. Characterizing the nature of the air pollution problem If real-time ambient air quality monitoring stations can be established, these can provide useful information in order to understand fine particle compositions and source sectors; to map trends and seasonal variations in air quality, to inform the public to take action on days with high levels of pollution, and to evaluate the impacts on air quality from mitigation measures. The GEF-6 project on Integrated, Sustainable and Low Emissions Transport in the Maldives includes a component on procuring, installing and operating equipment to monitor GHG and air pollutant emissions. 2. Identifying the air quality goal and timeframe for achievement There is a need to establish specific air quality goals nationally or for key regions. For instance, a reduction of x percentage of ambient PM2.5 concentration over 2018 2030 in the greater Male' region. 3. Developing an emission inventory While an emission inventory was developed during this process of national planning, further refinement, completion and regularly updating the emissions inventory for Maldives is a critical step in monitoring, evaluating, reviewing and updating the air quality plan. This step is closely linked with the next step 41. 4. Conductin91 air quality modelling and identifying new emission reduction strategies in order to achieve the air quality goal Air quality modelling, like the modelling undertaken for this document, will help to understand how the implementation of programs in place can contribute towards achieving the air quality goal. If the measures in existing sectorial strategies fall short of achieving a nationally identified goal, then modelling can assist in idlentifying additional emission reduction strategies that can assist in reaching this target. 5. Formulating and adopting enforceable national requirements In addition to setting an emission limit or standard, regulations should reflect best available control technology, and needs to include source monitoring and reporting requirements. Proposed regulations would irnitially need to undergo a commenting period and draft approval by the Ministry and relevant stakeholders. After a subsequent stage of public consultation, the draft regulation would then be sent for clearance by the Attorney Generals Office, and finally by the Presidents Office. relevant stakelholders and subsequently a stage of public consultation. 6 .. Implementing effective programs for permitting and enforcement A permit program is an effective tool in ensuring that emission source sectors have an understanding of air pollution control requirements that may apply e.g. renewing perlillits for vehicles that comply with the national vehicle emission standards or importing fuel that conform to fuel quality standards. These ~rograms can play an important role in regulating emissions from major source sectors. 7 .. Monitor implementation of air pollution nnitigation measures identified in this Plan 8 .. Review and update National Air Pollution if Action Plan every 5 years based on progress made in implementing mitigation measures and updated analysis of priorities to improve air quality in the Maldives. 53 TABLE 16: NATIONAL AIR POLLUTION ACTION PLAN ROADMAP: ACTIVfTIES, ORGANIZATIONS ANO TIME LINES. Activity Sub-actions Organizations Time Involved Frame Ambient air quality • Establish monitoring station(s) in • Ministry of By 2020 monitoring to key areas Environment characterize nature of • Map trends and seasonal • Environmental the air pollution problem varieties in ambient a1ir quality Protection Agency • Publish daily air quality data to the public Identify ambient air • Ministry of By 2021 pollution concentration Environment goal and timeline for achievement Improve and maintain a ir • Continue to develop existing • Ministry of 2019 - 2030 pollution and GHG LEAP-IBC analysis in tine Maldives Environment emission1 inventory and • Conduct studies of air pollution • Maldives National projections emission factors University • Strengthen links to local • Environmental academia Protection Agency Mainstream air pollutants • Monitor implementation of NDC • Ministry of 2020 - 2030 and SLCPs into NDC measures and quantify their air Environment MRV and implementation pollutant emission reductions Coordinate • Formulating and adopting • Ministry of 20 l 9 onwards implementation of air enforceable national Environment quality strategy requirements on emission limits • Ministry of measures and standards Transport and Civil • Implement effective programs for Aviation permit ting and enforcement • Maldives Transport • Strategy to deploy el ectric Authority vehicles developed including • Maldives Energy financial mechanisms to support Authority implementation and potential for • Environmental using solar PY for charging Protection Agency facilities • Demonstration project on75 electric motorcycles and 200 electric bicycles Monitoring and • MRV framework for sustainable • Ministry of 2020 - 2030 Evaluation of National low ennissions transport Environment Air Pollutant Action Plan • Monitor implementation of mitigation measures identified in Plan • Review and update National Air Pollution Action Plan every 5 years 54 ANNEXES • . ,., . ... f- r7f / • ANNEX A: ASSUMPTIONS Category Data Source Assumptions and comments Population: -Maldives Population projections 2014-2054, National Bureau of Statistics GDP -2017 Article IV Consultartion - Press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for Maldives, International Monetary Fund Commercial and - Maldives Energy Supply and Demand Survey 20 l 0 - 2012, Public Services Ministry of Environment Transport Sector: - Maldives Energy Supply and Demand Survey 20 l 0 - 201 2, The data was projected using the Road Transport and Ministry of Environment average rate of increase of the Marine Transport respective vehicle/ vessel Maldives Transport Authority category. EMEP / EEA Air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016, European Environment Agency Industry - Maldives Energy Supply and Demand Survey 20 l 0 - 2012, Ministry of Environment Tour ism Secto:r: - Maldives Energy Supply and Demand Survey 20 l 0 - 2012, Resorts, Ministry of Environment Gvesthovses and hotels - Tourism Yearbook 2015, Ministry of Tourism Tourism Yearbook 2017, Ministry of Tourism Fourth Tourism Masterplan 2013- 2017. Volume 2. Background and analysis Ministry of Tourism Residential - Maldives Energy Supply and Demand Survey 20 l 0 - 2012, Ministry of Environment National Bureau of Statistics Fishing Trips - Maldives Energy Supply and Demand Survey 20 l 0 - 2012, Ministry of Environment Basic Fishery Statistics 20 l 0 Basic Fishery Statistics 20 l l Basic Fishery Statistics 20 l 2 Basic Fishery Statistics 20 l 3 Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture Refrigeration and -Customs import data, Air-conditioning Maldives Customs Service Waste -National Implementation Plan of the Stockiholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, Ministry of Environment 56 57 REFERENCES 58 Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC). 2016. "The Role Of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (Slcps) In Achieving The Sustainable Development Goals". Scientific Advisory Panel Updates. "GBD Compare I IHME Viz Hub". 2019. Vizhub.Healthdata.Org. https:// vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-com pare/. World Health Organization. (2016). 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