Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031–2035)

1.1 Background and Overview 3 Verification of Adaptation And

1.2 National Circumstances 3 Mitigation Actions and

1.2.1 Geography and Government Arrangement Support 25 (National and Subnational) 3 5

1.2.2 Macro-Economics 4

1.2.3 Impacts of Climate Change 4

1.2.4 Future Climate Scenarios 5

1.2.5 Emissions and Just Transition 5 Fairness in the Ambition 27

1.3 Legal, Policy and Institutional 6 Framework 6 2 Planning Process 29 7 The NDC Development Process 9 3 Means of Implementation 31 The NDC Ambition 11

3.1 Mitigation 12 Citation:

3.1.1 Information to Facilitate Clarity, This document may be cited as follows: Transparency and Understanding 14 Republic of Kenya.(2025). Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031-2035). Nairobi, Kenya: 3.2 Adaptation and Loss & Ministry of Environment Climate Change and Forestry. Damage 19

3.2.1 Prioritised Adaptation and Loss and Damage Reproduction of this publication for educational or Interventions 21 non-commercial purposes is authorised without written permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source is fully acknowledged. Please consider the environment before printing this publication. If you must print it, please use recycled paper, and print on both sides of the paper. KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED i CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Kenya’s New NDCs (2031- 2035) Context Recognizing the urgent need to address climate change, which erodes 3–5% of (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annually through extreme weather events, Kenya aims to catalyze economic resilience and sustainable economic growth through bold and ambitious climate action. Approximately 90% of electricity supplied to Kenya's national grid is from renewable energy sources. Geothermal energy is the leading renewable source of electricity in Kenya and accounts for nearly 45% of the supply, followed by Hydropower, Wind, Solar and Biomass energy. Despite the high percentage in renewable energy use and potential, the power sub-sector experiences technical and operational inefficiencies with high implications on cost of electricity. Kenya is poised to redefine its development trajectory by leveraging transformative power sector reforms as the cornerstone of its new generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ( 2031-2035). Central to the vision of reforms in the power sub-sector is the reduction of electricity costs, a pivotal step toward universal access, enhanced affordability. The reforms will not only improve operational and technical efficiency of power systems, but also unlock opportunities for private sector investment, drive industrial competitiveness, and expand electrification to underserved urban and rural areas in a low carbon and climate resilient manner. To avoid fragmentation and silo approach, Kenya’ NDC (2031-2035) adopts a coherent strategy of whole- of- government, whole-of-society approach to climate action, by prioritizing and adopting implementation sequence which takes into account the order, ripple effects and investability of the prioritized actions across and within sectors. The strategic approach primarily adopts a focus on sectoral intra and inter-connectedness while taking into account national and sectoral development plans. The sequenced ripple effect of affordable and reliable energy is poised to drive the NDC mitigation goal of decarbonising the transport by enabling transition to e-mobility, green manufacturing, climate smart agriculture, e-cooking, sustainable waste management, while building resilience of climate vulnerable sectors. The strategic approach to the NDC facilitates interventions that not only achieve the stated ambition, but also take into consideration the macroeconomic environment in which this execution is expected to occur like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, prices, and labour dynamics in the context of just transition. It additionally takes into account the national fiscal space, the domestic and international capital flows, the financing environment, and the institutional capacity for implementation. Further, this bold strategy positions Kenya as a regional leader in green energy transition, ensuring that its economy thrives in harmony with environmental sustainability. Through these ambitious reforms, Kenya reaffirms its commitment to decarbonization and inclusive growth for a climate-resilient future KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED iii CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Introduction KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 1 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) 1.1 Kenya’s development efforts have over the years climate change goals, Kenya has prioritized been seriously impeded by the accelerating measures that seek to address the economic frequency and intensity of climate extremes decline caused by climate change impacts, and detrimental climate change impacts, while triggering rapid development following leading to socio-economic losses estimated a climate resilient development pathway. (in 2009) to be over 5% of Kenya’s GDP every This Second Nationally Determined Contribution Kenya is poised year, hence retarding her annual GDP growth. which is to be implemented from 1st January Background and Overview This situation is exacerbated by the country’s to redefine its economy being dependent on climate sensitive 2031 to 31st December 2035, has been prepared in accordance with Article 4 of the development sectors and natural resources. In 2023, Kenya Paris Agreement and pursuant to Decisions suffered direct losses due to drought estimated Historical records reveal that due to her these events have increased, and sometimes trajectory by at over USD 650 million, which was quickly 6/CMA.1 and 6/CMA.3. Noting that Kenya’s geographical location, Kenya, like other occur in rapid succession, leaving no time leveraging succeeded by floods in 2024 that led to direct current development blueprint (The Kenya Vision2030) period ends in 2030 (prior to tropical countries, is experiencing a warming for recovery. trend that is far above the average global transformative losses estimated at over USD 1.46 Billion, both amounting to about 2% of the GDP. the implementation period of this NDC), and temperature rise, especially since the 1960s. The Kenyan economy is highly dependent on power sector that a new national development blueprint This trend up to 2023 has been characterized climate sensitive economic sectors, hence food security, agriculture, water supplies, Kenya’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions process is underway, the priorities outlined reforms. (2.09tCO2e per person in 2022), is far below the in this NDC are aligned with the draft Long by increasing temperatures, with some areas showing larger increases in especially infrastructure and all socioeconomic and global average (6.76tCO2e per person). Despite Term Low Emission Development Strategy livelihood activities are all significantly impacted minimum temperatures compared to maximum the country’s negligible contribution to global and analyses of sectoral long-term strategies by these catastrophic weather occurrences. temperatures. The annual mean temperature greenhouse gas GHG emissions (less than 0.1% and plans in light of both national and global In 2009, a study found that Kenya’s socio- rose by approximately 1.2°C over this period, in 2022), Kenya has put up a robust legal and circumstances. This NDC will therefore be economic growth suffers from a setback corresponding to an average rate of 0.21°C per institutional architecture as well as ambitious updated before its implementation period of over 5% loss of her GDP annually due to decade, with some parts of Kenya experiencing policies, plans and measures to pursue a to ensure alignment with Kenya’s long term climate change impacts and exacerbates far higher warming. low carbon climate resilient development development blueprint post 2030. inequalities. Since these losses are an existential pathway to realise her development goals There has been observed increase in problem to the country, addressing climate while simultaneously contributing to the global precipitation variability in Kenya in recent change remains central to Kenya’s sustainable good. In order to fairly contribute to the global years, with prolonged dry spells leading to economic development strategy. droughts and intense short-lived lived rainfall causing floods. The intensity and frequency of 1.2 National Circumstances

1.2.1 Geography and Government Arrangement (National and Subnational) Kenya is a lower-middle-income developing its obligations under the United Nations country with a multi-party democratic political Framework Convention on Climate Change system and a stable government, located in (UNFCCC). County Governments implement the Greater Horn of Africa. It borders Ethiopia national policies at the subnational levels and to the North, South Sudan to the North-West, mainstream climate action in their devolved Uganda to the West, Tanzania to the South, functions, development plans, and programs and Somalia to the East. The total surface area to enhance resilience at the grassroots level. is about 610,000 km2, comprising a land area Based on the 2019 population census, Kenya’s of approximately 580,609 km2, a water area population was estimated to be 52.6 million of approximately 11,362 km2, and a terrestrial in 2024, with a median age of 19.8 years, water area of approximately 18,029 km2. comprising 54.4% females and 49.6% males. Kenya has a devolved, two-tier government This population is projected to grow to 57.8 consisting of a national government and 47 million in 2031 and 62.2 million in 2035. county governments, with defined spheres of With an urbanization rate of 4.3% per year, power and functions. The National Government the urban population, estimated at 29.8% in has the responsibility of formulating policies 2024, is projected to grow to about 34% in to ensure the country transforms into a 2031 and about 40% in 2035. Kenya aspires low-carbon, climate-resilient development to be “a newly industrializing, middle-income pathway and designing programs to deliver country providing a high quality of life to all 2 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 3 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure change. Increased frequencies and intensities (USD 672 million). Approximately 412,763 Additionally, children, particularly girls, face environment.” of climate-related risks in Kenya aggravate people were affected, including 107,318 disruptions in education due to displacement conflicts, mostly over already scarce natural women of reproductive age, with over 9,300 and household financial constraints as a result Over 84% of Kenya’s land area is arid and resources. This has frequently forced the expectant women facing heightened risks due of the extreme climate events. semi-arid, with poor infrastructure and other country to reallocate development resources to healthcare service disruptions. developmental challenges, leaving less than Sea level rise threatens coastal communities, to address rapidly arising climate-related 16% of the land area to support the food Droughts cause large-scale disasters, with projections indicating that up to 86,000 emergencies. These impacts are not gender- security needs of over 80% of the population. destroying livelihoods, triggering local conflicts people may be affected annually by 2030, neutral, affecting different groups differently, The Kenyan economy is dependent on climate- over scarce resources, and eroding community leading to coastal erosion and wetland loss with vulnerable populations disproportionately sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture, resilience. The 2011 drought caused over USD at an annual cost of about KES 6 billion. Rising impacted. water, energy, tourism, wildlife, and health, 11 billion in damages, and the 2014-2018 sea temperatures have triggered mass coral whose vulnerability is increased by climate drought affected 23 counties, leaving 3.4 million bleaching, impacting fish populations and Kenyans severely food insecure and 500,000 coastal fisheries. Mount Kenya’s glaciers have without access to water. During the periods shrunk to only 17% of their original size and

1.2.2 Macro-Economics of extreme drought, some of the Kenyan are projected to disappear within the next women and girls walk up to 30 kilometers 15 years, threatening the Tana River, which The Kenya Vision 2030 aimed to achieve a 10% attainment of food and nutrition security, in search of water and firewood, increasing supplies over 60% of Kenya’s hydropower annual GDP growth rate by 2012 and sustain income generation, employment creation, their exposure to gender based violence. and supports agriculture. it up to the year 2030. However, between 2012 and enhancing export earnings. The share and 2022, annual GDP growth rate averaged contribution of agriculture, forestry and 4.8%. This performance fell short of the target fishing to GDP in Kenya compared to lower- 1.2.4 Future Climate Scenarios of 10 percent annual growth due to various middle-income and upper middle-income factors, including the adverse effects of climate countries between 2007 and 2022 was higher, a Kenya’s mean surface temperature is projected of northern Kenya is expected to experience change, which has resulted in recurring drought testament that Kenya is still heavily dependent to increase between 1°C and 1.7°C by 2035, rainfall deficits, while southern Kenya may and invasion of pests and diseases, rising oil on agriculture. The country’s agricultural sector with rising temperatures expected in all see a slight increase in rainfall. The June- prices, exchange rate volatility, the COVID-19 relies on the vulnerable groups with 80% of seasons. The rate of warming is anticipated September ( JJAS) dry season is projected pandemic, geo-political conflicts, terrorist the country’s agricultural output produced to be higher in lowlands than in plateaus and to experience decreased rainfall under RCP attacks and piracy incidents. by smallholder farmers. highlands. In western and northern Kenya, 2.6 and 8.5 but an increase under RCP 4.5. temperatures could rise by 0.9°C to 1.3°C by Studies forecast that by 2035, precipitation Kenya transitioned from a low-income status to Kenya aims to have a robust, diversified and 2035, while the southern coastal region is levels in the MAM season will decline by a lower middle-income status upon attaining competitive manufacturing sector to support its projected to experience a lower increase of more than 100 mm in large parts of Kenya’s a GDP per capita of US$ 1,430 in 2014. The socio-economic development agenda through 0.5°C. IPCC 2022 presents strong evidence interior. Analysis of climate trends in 21 ASAL GDP per capita improved to US$ 2,240 in 2022. job creation, foreign exchange generation that surface temperatures across the region counties between 1977 and 2014 shows an However, Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and foreign direct investment attraction. The have increased by 0.7–1°C between 1973 and increase in temperature in all 21 counties, per capita performance has been lower than contribution of the manufacturing sector to 2013, altering the magnitude and frequency with five counties surpassing a 1.5°C increase, the average for lower middle-income and upper GDP declined from 10.4% in 2007 to 7.8 per of extreme climate events. and a general decline in rainfall in 15 out of middle-income categories between 2007 and cent in 2022 against a target of 15%. The the 21 counties. These results suggest that 2022. Sectors with significant contribution to decline was due to high cost of production, Rainfall projections indicate that the October- the normal variability in Kenya’s precipitation economic growth in Kenya include agriculture competition from counterfeit goods, low December (OND) short rains will increase in patterns will be the dominant influence on its and livestock, manufacturing, tourism, trade, technology adoption and recurring drought. many counties compared to the March-May climate over the coming decades. business process outsourcing, and financial Kenya’s share contribution of manufacturing (MAM) long rains, which will significantly decline services. to GDP was far below the average of other under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Most lower middle-income and upper middle-income Agriculture and livestock sector’s direct countries between 2007 and 2022. contribution to GDP was estimated at 21.2% 1.2.5 Emissions and Just Transition in 2022, majorly contributing towards the In 2022, Kenya’s total greenhouse gas emissions thus AFOLU (combined agriculture, land use

1.2.3 Impacts of Climate Change was estimated at 113.366 MtCO2eq including the LULUCF (66.52 MtCO2eq without LULUCF) change and forestry) contributes to 73% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Kenya. sector and was projected to increase towards The LULUCF sector emissions were estimated Kenya’s economy is highly vulnerable to climate drought led to economic losses exceeding 143 MtCO2eq by 2030 as the country pursues at 46.846 MtCO2eq (41% of the total) with an change, given its reliance on climate-sensitive KES 70 billion (approximately USD 650 million), its Vision 2030 development agenda. Trends average annual growth of 20%. The agriculture sectors. Heat, droughts, and floods are the main reducing the GDP growth rate from 5.8% in in total emissions for the time series 1990 to emissions were estimated at approximately climate hazards, negatively impacting lives, 2021 to 4.9% in 2022. This downturn increased 2022 show that the average annual growth 36.102 MtCO2eq (32% of the total) with an livelihoods, and national economic stability. poverty rates, with an estimated 300,000 in overall emissions was 4% percent per year annual growth of 4%. The energy sector Climate-related disasters cause significant additional people pushed into poverty. including the LULUCF sector. Kenya’s emission emissions were estimated at 21.503 MtCO2eq losses and damages, with extreme events Floods have caused widespread destruction, growth is primarily driven by Energy and (20% of the total), with an annual growth of such as droughts, floods, and landslides displacing hundreds of thousands of people. AFOLU sectors, showing that deforestation 6% of the total GHG emissions. The waste posing a major threat to Kenya’s security and The 2018 floods led to the loss of human and forest degradation have been exceeding sector emissions were estimated at 5.237 economic progress. lives, displacement of over 230,000 people the reforestation rates throughout the period. MtCO2eq (5% of the total) with an annual During the 2017 drought, Kenya lost KES (including 150,000 children), and destruction The other sources of emissions include growth of 4%. The Industrial Processes and 20 billion (approximately USD 200 million) of infrastructure, including 700 schools and increased consumption of fossil fuels, increased Product Use (IPPU) emissions were estimated in the agricultural sector, while the 2018 8,500 hectares of crops. The 2024 floods in agricultural activities, and demand for fossil at 3.677 MtCO2eq (3% of the total) with an floods resulted in damages of over KES 10 March-April-May (MAM) resulted in estimated fuels in the energy sector. annual growth of 12%. Emissions from the billion (approximately USD 100 million) to damages of KES 101,102 million (USD 783 AFOLU sector have been increasing steadily Agriculture and LULUCF sectors dominate the infrastructure and property. The 2022-2023 million) and losses exceeding KES 86,719 million since 1990 to 2022 due to a rising demand share of the total greenhouse gas emissions, 4 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 5 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) for agricultural land, deforestation activities, use of synthetic fertilizers, and increasing relatively low costs, coal is also an important fuel option for electricity expansion planning

1.3.2 Policy Framework number of livestock. IPPU Emissions have for Kenya, but the negative environmental continued to grow primarily due to increased impacts must be factored in. There have been The Kenya Vision 2030, the long-term national Kenya also developed its National Adaptation CO2 emissions from cement production (more proposals to build two coal power plants in development blueprint encapsulates flagship Plan (NAP) (2015-2030) which was submitted factories became operational). Emissions from Kenya, one of which would be based on local programmes and projects with aspects of to the UNFCCC in 2017. The NAP provided a the energy sector had increased over the years coal while the other would use imported coal. adaptation and mitigation. The National Climate climate hazard and vulnerability assessment largely due to increased importation of fossil However, the use of coal is accompanied by Change Response Strategy (NCCRS), which and set out priority adaptation actions. consuming vehicles in the transport sector. strong environmental impacts, such as high was developed in 2010, was the first national In addition to the Kenya Vision 2030 and emissions of sulphur dioxide, heavy metals policy document on climate change. It aimed While Kenya has abundant renewable energy climate change-related policies, the country and harmful greenhouse gases. The country to advance the integration of climate change resources such as geothermal, solar, wind and has put in place several sectoral policies to is therefore faced with choosing between adaptation and mitigation into all government hydro for electricity generation, more than one support implementation of climate change the exploitation of her fossil fuel resources planning, budgeting and development half of Kenya’s households use wood fuel for adaptation and mitigation actions. Some of to realize her development objectives and objectives. cooking. Hydro power, which has been a major the key policies include: the National Policy foregoing their exploitation for environmental To operationalize the NCCRS, the First National on Climate Finance; Climate Risk Management source of electricity for a long time is impacted reasons. To forego all the benefits of exploiting Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2013- framework; the National Livestock Policy 2015; by increasingly highly variable rainfall. The the fossil fuel resources, and ensure a just 2017) was prepared in 2013 for a period of five National Oceans and Fisheries Policy 2008; country also has significant oil reserves and energy transition that is socially inclusive, years. It established Kenya’s baseline emissions the Agricultural Sector Transformation and about 400 million tons of coal reserves which Kenya will not only need alignment of her projections up to 2030 and developed a low Growth Strategy (ASTGS) (2019 – 2029); the are yet to be exploited. Coal mining, in particular ambitions against important just transition carbon climate resilient development pathway Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategy open pit mining as planned for Mui basin, principles but also significant compensatory for the country outlining priority adaptation (2017-2028); the Reducing Emissions from could have strong environmental and social international support. and mitigation actions. Similarly, the Second Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+); impacts in the future. Due to its production experience in many countries as well as NCCAP (2018-2022) was developed in 2018 the National Drought Management Authority for the period 2018 to 2022; and the Third Management Authority (NDMA) Act (2016); NCCAP (2023-2027), developed in 2023 for the Water Act, (2016); Forest Conservation 1.3 the period 2023 to 2027. The NCCAP II and and Management Act (2016) among others. III identified the country’s priority climate Noting that the Kenya Vision 2030 will cease change adaptation and mitigation actions. in 2030, a new long term development The actions were intended to contribute to blueprint will be developed before 2030. the country’s achievement of the low carbon The actions and priorities outlined in this climate resilient development pathway, Nationally Determined Contribution will be poverty eradication and the NDC target. Legal, Policy and Institutional updated before the commencement of the Financing of the NCCAP was achieved through implementation period (1st January, 2031). mainstreaming and budgeting the actions in Framework the successive medium-term plans (MTPs). In order to address climate change and its architecture to enable all actors – state and 1.3.3 Institutional Framework impacts to Kenya’s economy, Kenya has put in non-state, national and subnational – to place elaborate legal, policy and institutional effectively contribute to the national goal. Kenya has clear coordination structures for The Act obligates, at the sectoral level, state climate change matters under the Ministry of departments and agencies to establish Climate Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Change Units (CCUs) to integrate NCCAP actions

1.3.1 Legal Framework with the overarching policy, coordination into their strategies and implementation plans. and oversight of climate change affairs The Directorate performs coordination work The Constitution of Kenya (2010) provides 2023 to provide a legal framework to guide being performed by the National Climate through the Climate Change Units established the foundation for implementation of climate the engagement in carbon markets in Kenya. Change Council, chaired by the President. in all ministries, counties, departments and change actions through its Bill of Rights The Act establishes the Climate Change agencies. At the sub-national level, county The Act obligates the Cabinet Secretary provisions, especially the right of all Kenyans Directorate (CCD) as the lead government governments are required to designate a responsible for climate change affairs every to a clean and healthy environment. Pursuant agency responsible for coordinating climate County Executive Committee member to five years to formulate an economy-wide to this right, the Climate Change Act, 2016 change plans and actions and related coordinate climate change in each county National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) provides a legal and regulatory framework for measurement, monitoring, and reporting. through the establishment of a Climate Change that prescribe measures and mechanisms, addressing climate change and its impacts in To ensure coherence, the Act designates the Unit (CCU). inter alia to guide the country toward the order to achieve a low carbon climate resilient CCD as the Secretariat for the NCCC with the achievement of low carbon climate resilient The Act designates the National Environment development. responsibility of coordinating the technical sustainable development and mainstreaming Management Authority (NEMA) as the body The Act establishes governance structures for climate change into national and sectoral aspects of the implementation of climate responsible for enforcing climate change climate change management in the country development planning and the County change functions. Such functions, include: duties for state and non-state actors. With with the National Climate Change Council Integrated Development Plans (CIDPs). To providing analytical support and technical the amendment of the Act in 2023, NEMA was (NCCC) being responsible for oversight and ensure that the NCCAP is implemented across assistance on climate change and coordinating also appointed as the Designated National coordination. The NCCC is chaired by His all sectors, the Act provides that the NCCAP the implementation of and reporting on the Authority (DNA) for market mechanisms and Excellency, the President of the Republic of shall be approved by the NCCC. Consequently, NCCAPs as well as capacity building support other mechanisms stemming from Article 6 Kenya. In addition, the Act defines the roles the implementation of the country’s NDC is to at the two levels of government – National of the Paris Agreement. of both national and county governments as be done through successive NCCAPs. and County Governments. well as non-state actors in the mainstreaming, implementation and reporting of climate action in Kenya. The Act was amended in 6 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 7 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) The NDC Development Process KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 9 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) The NDC Ambition The process for preparing Kenya’s New consultations. Comprehensive gender analysis Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 2031- informed the revision throughout the process. 2035) was characterised by significant time The NDC development process was constraints and the need to respond to new government-led through the Climate Change government priorities, including strengthening Directorate of the Ministry of Environment, implementation of the NDC and boosting Climate Change and Forestry. The process, private sector interest. The New NDC has This bold been developed in the context of the country’s which entailed planning, review of official government documents, public consultations strategy national circumstances and development agenda with a strong focus on gender equity. and engagements, together with approvals positions Kenya It builds on existing national policies and legal at different stages, was not only consultative and inclusive, but was also based on clear as a regional frameworks, including the Constitution of Kenya (2010), the Climate Change Act (2016), communication using the best available leader in the First Nationally Determined Contribution national data. A key objective of the process applied was to facilitate stakeholder ownership green energy (2021 – 2030), the Third National Climate Change Action Plan (2023 – 2027), the National and effective implementation using both top- transition. Adaptation Plan (2015 – 2030) and the Draft down and bottom-up approaches. Kenya’s Long-Term Low-Emission Development During the NDC 2031-2035 development Strategy (LT-LEDS). process, the consultants worked closely with the stakeholders in an inclusive and The Climate Change Directorate of the Ministry consultative manner to update and enhance of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Kenya’s contributions. Stakeholders were and in consultation with relevant departments identified from various national and county and agencies across the government, government sectors, civil society, academia conducted a detailed analysis to underpin the and private sector. To ensure inputs went adaptation and mitigation targets upto 2035, beyond technical analysis and considered reviewing a range of pathways for each sector other aspects of Kenyan life, a range of other of the economy that contributes significant stakeholders representing the distinctive greenhouse gas emissions in line with the perspectives of the Kenyan people were national circumstances, the latest National consulted, including the private sector, the Inventory Report and the IPCC guidelines. labour movement, environmental justice This was enriched by a comprehensive gender organisations, youth organisations, sub- analysis. Technology availability, potential cost national (county) governments, and others. implications were considered, as well as the Using both individual and group approaches, role of enabling infrastructure. Incentives, and consultations were conducted at different support for innovation are to be considered at stages of the process as physical or virtual the detailed action design phase. Additionally, workshops. there were youth specific consultation meetings to ensure intergenerational equity and inclusion In line with paragraph 22-35 of decision 1/ of youth in the development of the NDC. CP.21 and Decision 4/CMA .1 and its annex, the process was structured to support In order to ensure alignment and coherence enhancement of mitigation, adaptation and with Kenya’s national circumstances, sustainable transparent communication, together with development agenda, government objectives the alignment of the NDC with the Sustainable and plans, the process started with a review Development Goals (SDGs). The data and of the relevant national plans, policies and information collected from the document legislation at both national and sector levels. review and various consultations were used for Relevant data was collected from different the simultaneous determination and design sectors and analysed to understand and of the New NDC, including mitigation and update both climate impacts and the extent adaptation enhancements. The enhancements of implementation of climate actions to date, have not only targeted mitigation ambitions and to identify potential NDC priority actions. of the NDC, but also the strengthening of Various adaptation and mitigation actions the NDC’s implementation. The adaptation were proposed based on inputs from both component of the NDC draws from the National government and other stakeholders. The Adaptation Plan (NAP). actions were then analysed to determine potential impacts and to identify potential priority actions for further analysis and 10 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 11 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Kenya’s New NDC includes both mitigation will implement its NDC through the National and adaptation components based on Climate Change Action Plans (NCCAPs) which her national circumstances, noting that will be periodically reviewed. Mitigation Goal: climate action must lead to socio-economic Cognisant that there exists gender In pursuit of her long-term development agenda, development. Kenya aims to achieve her long- differentiated vulnerabilities due to climate Kenya continues to undertake an ambitious mitigation term development objectives through a low change impacts, and that men and women carbon, climate resilient pathway in inclusive contribution towards the Paris Agreement. Kenya and equitable ways that foster just transition contribute differently to the same due to their respective gender roles, Kenya will implement Kenya therefore endeavors to abate her GHG emissions by 35% for sustainability. The mitigation and adaptation interventions outlined in this NDC are designed the outlined adaptation and mitigation priorities reaffirms its by 2035 relative to the BAU scenario of 215 MtCO2eq in 2035, leading to the abatement of 75.25 MtCO2eq. to maximize co-benefits (between mitigation in a gender responsive manner in order to promote inclusivity in climate action. To do this, commitment to Subject to national circumstances, Kenya will mobilize and adaptation), enhancing resilience in Kenya’s climate-vulnerable socio-economic sectors Kenya will advance meaningful participation decarbonization domestic resources to realize 15.05 MtCO2eq (20% of and representation of vulnerable populations the 75.25 MtCO2eq ) of the emission reductions. The while contributing to emission reductions. in climate action through capacity building and and inclusive remaining 60.20 MtCO2eq (80% of the 75.25 MtCO2eq) These measures address projected climate impacts for 2031–2035 and integrate gender- skills development, technology and innovations growth for of the emission reduction will be achieved through a as well as targeted inclusive access to climate responsive approaches to account for differing finance, among other initiatives. a climate- combination of international support, including finance, vulnerabilities across population groups. Kenya investments, technology development and transfer, and resilient future. capacity building, and participation in carbon markets. Kenya aims 3.1 Mitigation The mitigation goal will be achieved through the promotion and implementation of key priority mitigation initiatives, including but not limited to the following: ꞏ Undertake energy sector reforms aimed at universal access to, adequate, reliable, and affordable energy services, to enable the achievement of, to catalyze inter alia: Kenya’s ambitious mitigation target is economy- targets for the NDC implementation period to economic wide, designed to lead to emission reductions guide her participation in these mechanisms. ◌ Increased renewable electricity generation in the national grid towards 100% by 2035; resilience and across all sectors without compromising socio- As part of the mitigation approach, Kenya will economic development. Priority mitigation sustainable actions will be achieved through policies, leverage carbon markets to attract investment ◌ Adoption of clean and efficient energy use for the transport, industry, agriculture and domestic sectors including clean cooking. and enhance its mitigation ambition. Pursuant economic programs and measures, with additional emission reductions being realized through to the provisions for a whitelist of eligible ꞏ Promotion of low carbon, climate resilient and efficient transportation systems growth through carbon markets, while promoting sustainable technologies and projects in the Climate Change Act (Cap. 387A), carbon market activities will that are gender-responsive and accessible to all, through electrification, bold and development and environmental integrity. Kenya will develop and periodically review set aside a portion of its mitigation outcomes modal shifts, urban mass rapid transport systems and overall greening of the transport sector. ambitious her whitelist for 2031 to 2035 to support her for domestic use towards achievement of her NDC. This strategic approach strengthens the ꞏ Promotion of green industrialization and extractive sectors through adoption participation in carbon markets and other climate action. mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris country’s climate ambitions while fostering of innovative, inclusive, clean and low carbon technologies in the exploitation sustainable development. and utilization of resources Agreement. Additionally, Kenya will set annual ꞏ Making progress towards increasing tree cover of the land area through afforestation, reforestation and agroforestry. ꞏ Reduced deforestation and forest degradation by rehabilitation and protection of natural forests (REDD+ approach), in both land and water- based ecosystems. ꞏ Promotion of climate smart agriculture (CSA) with emphasis on crop and animal husbandry, including efficient livestock management systems while empowering smallholder farmers and pastoralists through enhancement of their capacities. ꞏ Enhance implementation of sustainable waste management systems to ensure provision of a clean and healthy environment. ꞏ Implement the National Green Skills and Green jobs Strategy to ensure just transition across sectors. ꞏ Develop and implement comprehensive plans and programmes that address negative impacts of response measures across sectors to ensure a just transition of the workforce, sectors and livelihoods. 12 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 13 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) The estimated budget required for the mitigation cost from domestic resources, PARA GUIDANCE IN DECISION 4/CMA.1 ICTU GUIDANCE AS APPLICABLE TO KENYA’S NDC implementation of the mitigation activities while the balance of USD 18.34 Billion (81%) for the period 2031 to 2035 is USD 22.5 Billion. is subject to international support. However, (b) Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the Nationally Information will be provided in Kenya’s NIR that will be consistent Subject to national circumstances, Kenya these estimated resource requirements Determined Contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with with the IPCC guidelines. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. intends to bear 19% (USD 4.28 Billion) of the may change with changing circumstances. Sectors: Energy, industrial processes and products use. agriculture, land

3.1.1 Information To Facilitate Clarity, use, land use change and forestry and waste. Transparency And Understanding Gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2). Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O). The following gases, which are currently negligible, may be included in this NDC: Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), PARA GUIDANCE IN DECISION 4/CMA.1 ICTU GUIDANCE AS APPLICABLE TO KENYA’S NDC sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). 1 Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year) For the land use, land use change and forestry sector, emissions and removals, the following reporting categories are included: forest land, cropland, grassland and wetland, including land use (a) Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting. Base for emission projections: 2022. changes between the categories, and between these categories Reference year for business-as-usual emissions target: 2035. and settlements and other land. The five carbon pools, above ground biomass, below ground biomass, litter, deadwood and (b) Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, Their The projected emission level in 2035 is 215 Million tonnes of CO2- soil organic matters are included. In addition, the carbon pool values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) equivalent (MtCO2eq). The 2022 base year of 113MtCO2eq were harvested wood products is included. or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year. estimated in the 2024 GHG Inventory. Kenya may recalculate the projected GHG emissions in 2030 to respond to policy changes (c) How the Party has taken into consideration paragraph 31(c) and Kenya’s NIR describes the sources considered significant and and improved data availability. (d) of decision 1/CP.21. reported as not estimated. The NIR provides justifications for exclusion in terms of the likely level of emissions and how these (c) For strategies, plans, and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph Not applicable are in line with the thresholds specified in decision 24/CP.19. A 6, of the Paris Agreement, or policies and measures as components similar approach, consistent with decision 18/CMA.1 will be used of nationally determined contributions where paragraph 1(b) above for reporting under the Paris Agreement. is not. Applicable,. Parties to provide other relevant information. (d) Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation actions The mitigation co-benefit of the adaptation actions will be included (d) Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed numerically, Kenya aims to implement mitigation measures to achieve absolute and/or economic diversification plans, including description of in the mitigation contribution of this NDC for example in percentage or amount of reduction. emission reductions of 75MtCO2eq by 2035. Out of the 75MtCO2eq, specific projects, measures and initiatives of Parties’ adaptation unconditional measures are expected to lead to a 15MtCO2eq actions and or economic diversification plans. emission reduction amount. An additional 60MtCO2eq emission reduction is achievable if support is made available from international sources to cover 4 Planning processes the full cost for implementation. (a) Information on the planning processes that the party undertook Covered in section 2 (e) Information on sources of data used in quantifying the reference Data sources for the quantifying information on the base year to prepare its nationally determined contribution and, if available, point(s) was based on 2022 GHG inventory results. on the parties implementation plans, including as appropriate: (f) Information on the circumstances under which the Party may The base year (2022) value would be subjected to recalculations (i) Domestic institutional arrangements. public participation and Covered in section 2 update the values of the reference indicators and technical corrections in response to policy changes, the best engagement with local communities and indigenous peoples, available science and availability of improved data per UNFCCC in a gender responsive manner. decision 18/CMA.1 in 2030. Accordingly, information on the base year value updates would be documented and reported in the (ii) Contextual matters, including inter alia, as appropriate: Biennial Transparency Reports and National inventory documents. a. National circumstances such as geography, climate, economy, Covered in section 1.2 2 Time frames and stroke or periods for implementation. sustainable development and poverty eradication. b. Best practise and experience related to the preparation of the Covered in section 2 (a) Time frame and/or period for implementation, including start and The time frame for the implementation of the NDC is 1st January nationally determined contribution. end date, consistent with any further relevant decision adopted 2031 to 31st December 2035. by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA). (b) Whether it is a single year or multi-year target, as applicable. An absolute single-year target in 2035 with 2022 as the base year. 3 Scope and coverage (a) General description of the target. The NDC is informed by the outcomes of the COP28 Global Stocktake (GST) -it is a 1.5°C aligned, economy-wide target, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories, informed by the latest science. In the event that Kenya’s NDC target is exceeded, Kenya intends to use both market and non-market mechanisms provisions of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, based on domestic legislation developed. 14 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 15 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) PARA GUIDANCE IN DECISION 4/CMA.1 ICTU GUIDANCE AS APPLICABLE TO KENYA’S NDC PARA GUIDANCE IN DECISION 4/CMA.1 ICTU GUIDANCE AS APPLICABLE TO KENYA’S NDC c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities I could acknowledged Just transition: Kenya is committed to achieving its long-term Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and for accounting for anthropogenic 5 when joining the Paris Agreement. development objectives through a low-carbon, climate-resilient greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate ,removals: pathway that is both gender-inclusive and equitable, fostering a just transition for sustainable development. Kenya will prioritize (a) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting Kenya has reported a GHG Inventory covering up to 2022 in the just transition of Kenya’s workforce, sectors, and livelihoods, for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals December 2024 in accordance with 18/CMA 1. For accounting ensuring no one is left behind in the journey toward a sustainable corresponding to the Party’s nationally determined contribution, relevant information Kenya will use the accounting guidance 4/ future. consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting CMA.1. For IPCC methodologies and metrics, see 5(d). guidance adopted by the CMA. A comprehensive cross sectoral analysis of response measures Final accounting towards the target that will take place in 2037 and their impacts will be carried out in order to develop and will depend on whether arrangements with Kenya’s participation implement plans and programmes that address negative impacts in Article 6 programmes. Any use of internationally transferred of response measures across sectors and ensure a just transition mitigation outcomes within that framework will be included in of its workforce, sectors and livelihoods. Kenya’s accounting, consistent with the approach that will have been negotiated under the UNFCCC process. Human rights. Citizen rights are enshrined in the Constitution of Kenya. (b) Assumptions and methodological approaches useful accounting Not applicable for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in their nationally determined contribution. Food security. Kenya prioritises food security of the citizens, (c) If applicable, information on how the party will take into account Kenya’s current greenhouse gas inventory is in accordance with the hence response to climate change should safeguard the citizens existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account decision 24/CP.19 and hence the revised 2006 IPCC Guidelines for basic rights to food. All of society approach. Kenya’s approach in for anthropogenic emissions and removals in accordance with National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006). The Good Practice tackling climate change and its impacts involves engagement of Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement as appropriate. Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse also actors-government and non-government players that include Gas Inventories (IPCC 2000), Good Practice Guidance for Land civil society actors, private sector, academia, media, development Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (IPCC 2003). The concepts partners and the citizens. contained in Good Practice Guidance are being implemented in stages, according to sector priorities and nation circumstances. Gender equality. Kenya acknowledges the varying contributions (d) IPCC methodology and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic IPCC 2006 guidelines, global warming potentials (GWP) for a to emissions by different population groups and is committed greenhouse gas emissions and removals. 100-year time horizon from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to implementing climate actions that are inclusive and gender- will be used to calculate CO2 equivalents. responsive, that ensure equal opportunities in transitioning to a IPCC 5th Assessment Report, or 100-year time-horizon GWP low-carbon economy. values from a subsequent IPCC assessment report as agreed (b) Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional Not applicable. upon by the CMA. economic integration organisations and their Member States (e) Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guideline, as appropriate, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, including as applicable: paragraph 2 of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance (i) Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent removals This is treated as part of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry with Article 4, paragraphs 16-18, of the Paris Agreement. from natural disturbances on managed lands. (IPCC, 2003). (c) How the Party’s preparation of its national determined contribution Kenya’s climate targets and policies are developed in the context (ii) Approach used to account for emissions and removals from Harvested wood products are not included in the emission has been informed by the outcomes of the global stock take, in of best available science, and hence the IPCC Special reports harvested wood products. calculations. accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement. on 1.5° C has been central to the assessment of the nationally determined contribution. (iii) Approach is used to address the effect of age-class structure Not applicable. in forest. (d) Each party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation, action and/ or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7 of the Paris Agreement (f) Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if to submit information on: applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including: (i) How the economic and social consequences of response This NDC consists of adaptation actions. The economic and social (i) How the reference indicators, baseline(s) and/or reference Removals from the land sector will be accounted for based on measures have been considered in developing the nationally consequences of the adaptation measures were analysed in the level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- or activity- specific accounting rules for their different land categories as per determined contribution. NAP and also the adaptation section of the NDC. The consequences specific reference levels are constructed, including, for example, the Good Practise Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and of response measures towards a low carbon climate development key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data Forestry (IPCC, 2003). economy formed the basing of prioritization of the NDC actions. sources and models used. (ii) Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented Such projects, measures and activities have been identified in (ii) For Parties with the nationally determined contributions that Not applicable. to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, including information various technical documents, but their contributions have not contain non greenhouse gas components, information on and adaptation plans that also yielded mitigation co-benefits, been included in the NDC. Each such project, measure or activities assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors such as will be considered for inclusion in the NDC mitigation contribution to those components, as applicable. energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human on a case by case basis. (iii) For climate forces included in nationally determined contributions Not applicable. settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry, and not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate economic diversification, actions, which may cover, but are not forces I estimated. limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, (iv) Further technical information, as necessary. Not applicable. real estate, agriculture and fisheries. 16 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 17 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) PARA GUIDANCE IN DECISION 4/CMA.1 ICTU GUIDANCE AS APPLICABLE TO KENYA’S NDC PARA GUIDANCE IN DECISION 4/CMA.1 ICTU GUIDANCE AS APPLICABLE TO KENYA’S NDC (g) The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of Kenya will engage in voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the How the National Determined Contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set in 7 the Paris Agreement, if applicable Paris Agreement as part of her efforts to implement the Nationally its article 2. Determined Contribution (NDC). This approach aims to enhance ambition and promote sustainable development while ensuring (a) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards Kenya regards the long-term target of the Paris Agreement to environmental integrity. achieving the objectives of the Convention as set out in its Article 2. be in line with Article 2 of the Convention, as explained under 6a. (above) Currently, Kenya is developing a comprehensive carbon market framework and establishing the necessary arrangements, including (b) How the NDC contributes towards Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Addressed in 6a and 7a institutional structures, authorization processes, a carbon registry, Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement. and a project pipeline, to facilitate her participation in Article 6. Additionally, the country is exploring opportunities for international cooperation by leveraging bilateral agreements, ensuring that 3.2 its efforts align with global climate goals while maximizing local benefits. How the party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national 6 circumstances: (a) How the party considers that its nationally determined contribution Kenya is a developing country, with diverse economic development is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances. challenges compounded by climate change impacts. Kenya’s contribution to total global emissions is less than 0.1% in 2022, while the per-capita emissions are less than 2.09tCO2eq compared to the global average of 6.76tCO2eq (2022). Adaptation and Loss & Damage Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contribution mitigation co-benefits, and are designed to This NDC builds on the Updated First NDC in which Kenya undertook to make a contribution that targeted a high proportion (NDC) reflects the country’s commitment to build the resilience of Kenya’s climate vulnerable of its mitigation potential and was dependent on the level of addressing the urgent challenges posed by socio-economic sectors due to the projected international support available. climate change and underscores its dedication impacts in the period 2031 – 2035 while to achieving a sustainable, climate-resilient taking into consideration the impacts of the The contributions set through this New NDC therefore reflect an future. As one of the most climate-vulnerable vulnerabilities to the different gender groups. enhancement of ambition in the following two areas: nations, Kenya is already experiencing severe The interventions are designed to enhance An increase in emission reduction targets by 2035 from 32% in impacts, including rising temperatures, climate resilience and protect livelihoods, the Updated First NDC to 35% in the New NDC. changing rainfall patterns, droughts, floods, ecosystems, infrastructure and the fragile Enhanced domestic contribution from 13% to 19% of the NDC cost. and increased erratic weather events. These economic sectors so as to ensure a strong climate-related challenges are not only transition toward a climate-resilient economy. (b) Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity. Kenya, being a developing country, prioritises increasing the threatening the livelihoods of millions, but per capita GDP growth above the 2024 levels of 5.4% so as to Beyond her adaptation ambition, Kenya are also exacerbating food insecurity, water address poverty alleviation and sustain sustainable economic recognizes the need to put in place mechanisms development in a low carbon climate resilient development scarcity, and undermining economic growth. to avert, minimize and address Loss and pathway. This has informed New NDC development process, and Kenya is committed to achieving a steady Damage associated with climate change, with represents a high level of fairness and ambition in light of Kenya’s economic development despite the anticipated special attention to the vulnerable groups. national circumstances. Kenya regards its nationally determined contribution to present its fair share of the efforts to achieve the frequency and intensity of climate change Kenya will periodically update its assessment global long term goal of the Paris Agreement. impacts. The adaptation interventions on the socio-economic impacts of climate outlined in this NDC also include those with change. (c) How the party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 3, of the Paris Kenya’s New NDC represents a progression beyond its previously Agreement. communicated NDC, as the emission reductions are enhanced from at least 32% to 35% under extremely difficult national circumstances. Adaptation Goal: It is an ambitious target for Kenya to achieve by 2035. The achievement of the target is dependent on the broad set of Kenya envisions a climate resilient society where mitigation measures. The implementation of the NDC for 2035 will livelihoods, communities, socio-economic sectors, be an important part of Kenya’s process of transforming towards a low emission society by 2050. infrastructure and ecosystems, are able to thrive despite current and projected impacts of climate change. Subject (d) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 4 of the Paris Kenyan's in NDC covers all sectors of the economy. to national circumstances, Kenya intends to mobilize Agreement. domestic resources to cater for 19% of the adaptation (e) How the party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 6 of the Paris Not applicable. cost, while 81% of the adaptation cost will require Agreement. international support in form of finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity building support. 18 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 19 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) ꞏ Kenya commits to achieving the adaptation goal and addressing loss and damage through the Strengthen infrastructure resilience across all sectors such as transport,

3.2.1 Prioritised Adaptation And Loss And Damage implementation of the following key initiatives, energy, education, human settlement Interventions inter alia: among others to withstand extreme weather and climate events, while ꞏ Enhance the adaptive capacity and ensuring their accessibility to all. climate resilience across sectors of the economy at the National and County ꞏ Enhance Climate Resilient Health levels of government. Systems by decreasing climate change induced health threats through improved Programs And Interventions Prioritized For 2031 - 2035 ꞏ Support innovative livelihood strategies accessible and strengthened disease for enhancing climate resilience of surveillance, prevention, response and the local communities and vulnerable Climate change groups through financing of locally led management as well as providing timely and affordable health services for all. Disaster risk reduction erodes 3–5% of climate action and climate response initiatives. ꞏ Strengthen investment in vulnerable (Gross Domestic ꞏ Enhance Climate Resilience in ecosystems such as mountains, P1: Drought risk management including drought early warning, preparedness, implementation of Ending Drought Emergencies (EDE) and response for wetlands, ocean and the blue economy Product (GDP) agriculture and agri-food systems for (including sea grass and mangroves) to enhanced drought resilience. the attainment of food security through annually through the promotion of inclusive climate- foster adaptation to climate change. P2: Flood risk management incorporating early warning, preparedness, and response. extreme weather smart agricultural practices including ꞏ Enhance meaningful participation, P3: Strengthen early-warning and tailor-made climate information services but not limited to effective irrigation engagement and skills development events systems, sustainable land management, of children and youth in climate action, through institutional strengthening of Kenya Meteorological Department and other information user institutions. drought-tolerant crops and sustainable including in decision-making processes, livestock production with special focus development and implementation of on smallholder farmers. Kenya’s climate policies and initiatives Agriculture (crops and livestock) and enhance support/scale up youth-led ꞏ Strengthen resilience in water resource climate initiatives, for entrepreneurship, management for increased access to P4: Implement Climate Smart Agricultural practices for increased productivity innovation, and community-based adequate and affordable water for through value chain approach to support the (crop, livestock and fisheries) projects, to promote climate resilience diverse purposes through investments transformation of agriculture (crops, livestock and fisheries) into a resilient, and mitigation. in water harvesting, water storage, innovative, commercially oriented, competitive and modern sector. efficient utilization, water conservation ꞏ Strengthen mechanisms to avert, P5: Increase sustainable access of adequate nutritional food for all and catchment management. minimize and address Loss and Damage associated with climate change through P6: Strengthen communication systems on agricultural extension and agro- ꞏ Strengthen climate induced Disaster weather services while tapping essential local traditional and indigenous enhancing institutional coordination, Risk Management through enhanced knowledge capacity building and strengthening early warning systems, preparedness timely responses towards current and and response with inclusive community emerging climate induced economic Ecosystems participation. and non-economic losses and damages ꞏ Improve environmental and ecosystem including slow onset events, climate management through nature-based mobility, displacement and climate P7: Rehabilitation and conservation of degraded public and private land through solutions including, but not limited to the induced insecurity. This will entail the afforestation, reafforestation, and protection measures like agroforestry, development of robust loss and damage commercial forestry, community forestry to enhance nature/ecosystem-based protection, conservation, rehabilitation adaptation. and restoration of terrestrial and aquatic needs assessment supported by robust ecosystems with the integration of loss and damage data collection, P8: Enhance/strengthen governance of community structures in participatory indigenous, traditional and local curation, storage and dissemination resource management. knowledge. to facilitate technical assistance and P9: Conduct blue carbon assessment for full integration of blue carbon/ocean support to address to loss and damage. climate actions P10: Develop and update marine spatial planning and outline sustainable The estimated budget required for the implementation of the adaptation management approaches initiatives, as well as put in place mechanisms to avert and minimize P11: Promote and expand opportunities for nature-based enterprises including Loss and Damage associated with climate change for the period 2031 seaweed farming, bamboo value addition and mangrove eco-tourism. to 2035 is USD 17.7 Billion. Subject to national circumstances, Kenya intends to bear 19% (USD 3.36 Billion) of the adaptation cost from Infrastructure domestic resources, while the balance of USD 14.34 Billion (81%) is subject to international support. About USD 15.8 Billion (28% P12: Develop and adopt guidelines and standards to guide the design and of the NDC cost) will be achieved through investments in projects construction of climate proof infrastructure across all sectors. designed to dually deliver mitigation and adaptation benefits. However, P13: Adoption of appropriate building/construction materials to enhance resilience (water harvesting, heat resistance, water permeable material among others). these estimated resource requirements may change with changing circumstances. 20 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 21 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Water and sanitation Education and training P14: Enhance access to adequate water for all for socio-economic development P25: Enhanced mainstreaming of climate adaptation in the education system. through investment in climate resilient water infrastructure, including water harvesting, storage, supply, sanitation and irrigation. P15: Mainstream climate change into water catchment management plans. Devolution Health P26: Continuous strengthening of mainstreaming of climate change at subnational level and enhance continuous climate change technical capacity building for P16: Enhance vulnerability and risk assessment of different climate risks on human County Climate Change Units for locally led climate initiatives. health, and establish county-level systems with gender disaggregated data to track and manage diseases. P27: Continuous Development and implementation of County Climate Change Action plans. P17: Continuous improvement of health programmes, protocols and guidance to manage new climate change related diseases and risk. Climate Change Loss and Damage Population, urbanization and housing P28: Develop a robust loss and damage needs assessment to inform the technical assistance request from Santiago Network on Loss and Damage and support P18: Enhance flood control especially around informal settlements and flood prone from Funds to Respond to Loss and Damage (FRLD). urban areas. P29: Develop a robust loss and damage data collection, curation, storage and P19: Strengthen the enforcement of green building codes by national and county dissemination system. governments. P30: Capacity building for all stakeholders on loss and damage, and support sectors P20: Conduct climate risk and vulnerability assessment of building/housing to plan for targeted interventions. infrastructure specially to flooding, and sea level rise and initiate appropriate actions. P31: Enhance institutional coordination and strengthening responses towards current and emerging climate induced economic/non-economic losses and damages including slow onset events, climate mobility, displacement and Tourism insecurity, among others. P21: Integrate climate change and implement climate resilience actions across the Children and Youth tourism sector value chain. P32: Enhance Climate Education and Awareness by integrating climate change education into the national curriculum, to ensure that youth and children are Gender equipped with climate literacy and skills to drive climate action. P33: Enhance capacity building and training of youth on bankable climate action proposals to enhance climate finance flow towards youth and children led P22: Promote mainstreaming of gender responsive initiatives across all sectors climate action initiatives. through inclusion of all categories of the population in climate action. P34: Increase Youth-led climate initiatives by enhancing support and scale up youth- led climate initiatives, including entrepreneurship, innovation, and community- based projects, to promote climate resilience and mitigation. Private Sector P35: Enhance Youth skills development by providing training and employment opportunities in climate-resilient sectors, such as renewable energy, P23: Strengthen the engagement of the private sector to leverage on the private sustainable agriculture, and eco-tourism, to equip youth with the skills and sector among other finance sources to finance adaptation actions. knowledge to drive a climate-resilient economy. Adaptation M&E system Waste management P36: Strengthen adaptation M&E system at national and county levels through P24: Climate-proof waste management infrastructure for waste management periodic development of the NCCAP implementation status reports automate facilities, effluent treatment plants and enhance the implementation of by linking to the MRV+ system. sustainable waste management (SWM) policies, strategies and regulations. 22 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 23 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification of Adaptation and Mitigation Actions and Support KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 25 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Fairness in the Monitoring and evaluation is key for assessing Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation System the effectiveness, efficiency, and impact of (NIMES) and County Integrated Monitoring policies, projects and programmes to ensure and Evaluation System (CIMES). accountability, and inform decision-making. In line with the Climate Change Act, Monitoring, Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) Reporting and Verification of the NDC will be Ambition system is crucial for tracking Nationally coordinated by the Climate Change Directorate. The sequenced Determined Contributions (NDCs) as it ensures transparency, accountability, and credibility in During the NDC implementation period ripple effect of climate commitments. (2031-2035) Climate Change Directorate will coordinate State and Non-State actors in affordable and Kenya continues to strengthen its MRV developing annual, mid-term and end-term system, including an integrated MRV tool for reports. The reports generated through the reliable energy monitoring and reporting both mitigation and Integrated MRV System will provide input is poised to adaptation actions, together with their results. for both national and international reporting To facilitate tracking of climate change actions obligations and help to foster global progress drive the NDC and reporting, Kenya will review and develop towards the shared goal of combating climate mitigation goal. M&E Framework to align with this NDC. The change and securing a sustainable future. MRV system is designed to be interoperable with existing systems that includes National 26 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 27 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Planning Process Kenya’s 2031 – 2035 NDC represents a level a huge debt burden. Kenya has demonstrated of sacrifice which is far beyond Kenya’s fair leadership in climate action, by sacrificing (for share of ambition towards the achievement of global good) the exploitation of brown natural global climate goals. Kenya’s contribution to resources that could quickly jumpstart the both current and historical global emissions GDP, address the debt burden and trigger is negligible (less than 0.1%). By October economic growth, create jobs and trigger 2021, it was estimated that cumulative rapid development, just like other peers whose global anthropogenic emissions since 1850 economies have been transformed due to was around 2,500Gt CO2, specifically from their exploitation of fossil fuels. developed countries, leaving less than This NDC builds on the Updated First NDC 500Gt CO2 of remaining carbon budget (2020) in which Kenya undertook to make a to stay below 1.5°C of warming. Like most contribution that targeted a high proportion of Africa, Kenya has historically been a net of its mitigation potential and was dependent sink, till late 1980s when negligible emissions on the level of international support available. could be estimated, mainly due to population The contributions set through this New NDC growth and pursuit of basic development. reflects an enhancement of ambition in the Kenya’s per-capita emissions were less than following areas: 2.09tCO2eq compared to the global average of 6.76tCO2eq in 2022. ꞏ An increase in emission reduction targets from 32% in the Updated First Kenya’s emission sources are mainly from the NDC to 35% in this New NDC. “hard to abate” sectors, creating the dilemma of choosing between the vital climate action ꞏ Enhanced domestic contribution from and the needed socio-economic development. 13% to 19% of the NDC cost. Kenya is also endowed with fossil fuel natural resources while still faced with developmental This represents a high level of fairness challenges such as high poverty rates which and ambition in light of Kenya’s national disproportionately affect the vulnerable circumstances. gender groups, high rates of unemployment especially among the youthful population, and 28 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 29 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Means of Kenya’s planning process on mitigation and to inform the Medium Term Planning of the adaptation is based on her development National Long Term Vision. planning processes. It is worth noting that Mitigation and adaptation actions are by 1st January, 2031, the Kenya Vision 2030 implemented across the various sectors and implementation period will have ended, and at national and county government levels. The Implementation a New Long Term Development Vision will Ministry of Environment, Clim)ate Change and Kenya’s NDC be commencing. This NDC will be updated before the implementation period to comply Forestry coordinates the country’s climate (2031–2035) with the Medium Term Plans (MTPs) of the change affairs through the National Climate Change Council and the Climate Change adopts a new national long term vision, which will also be in sync with NCCAP IV and V as well as the Directorate. coherent new version of the National Adaptation Plan. strategy of The NCCAPs are reviewed every five years whole-of- government, whole-of-society approach to climate action. 30 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED 31 CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) Kenya’s contribution will be implemented (USD 15.8 Billion) comprises of projects through both domestic and international designed to dually deliver mitigation and support. It is estimated that USD 56 Billion adaptation benefits. Subject to national is required for mitigation and adaptation circumstances, Kenya will endeavour to mobilize actions across sectors from 1st January 2031 domestic resources to meet approximately till 31st December 2035. Of the estimated total 19% (USD 10.5 Billion, at USD 2.1 Billion It is estimated budget, 40% (USD 22.5 Billion) is required per year) of this budget. Approximately USD that USD for mitigation efforts that will also catalyse Kenya’s rapid socio-economic development

45.36 Billion (81%) will require international support. Since all loans have a repayment 56 Billion is in a low carbon climate resilient development consequence to the Kenyan taxpayer, Kenya pathway. Approximately 32% (USD 17.7 Billion) will consider climate finance support received required for of the budget will support adaptation activities in loan instruments as part of her domestic mitigation and designed to make Kenya resilient to the contribution. Kenya will develop an elaborate increasing magnitude and frequency of the investment plan for the actions outlined in adaptation climate change impacts. The remaining 28% this NDC. actions across sectors 32 KENYA’S SECOND NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (2031 – 2035) REPUBLIC OF KENYA Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry Design and Layout by: