Climate Change Delivery Plan: Meeting Scotland's Statutory Climate Change Targets

1.8 THE CLIMATE CHANGE (SCOTLAND) BILL Z Reduce consumption, particularly of products which emit This Delivery Plan doesn’t come from a standing start. 1.10 greenhouse gases as part of their: manufacture, The Scottish Government is already acting to tackle climate The Climate Change (Scotland) Bill, introduced into the e.g. cement; production, e.g. meat; or decomposition, change. For example: Scottish Parliament in December 2008, requires Scotland’s e.g. waste Z The Climate Change (Scotland) Bill will place Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions, including its share of those from Z Sequester carbon geologically and in soils and vegetation, commitment to reduce its emissions levels on a statutory international aviation and shipping, to be at least 80% lower in e.g. trees. footing 2050 compared with 1990 levels. An interim target will require Z Policy options and public spending decisions are already emissions to be at least 34% below 1990 levels by 2020; and 1.14 contributing to reducing emissions and to the action needed 42% by 2020 if the EU decides to increase its 2020 emission This Delivery Plan identifies: to help mitigate climate change reduction target to 30% below 1990 levels, following a global Z The key sectors for abatement Z Funding farmers and others to reduce climate change deal on climate change. Z The high level measures required in each sector to deliver emissions from land management practices and to manage the interim, 2020 targets in both a 34% and 42% Scottish Scotland’s rural environment more effectively 1.11 The Bill also requires the Scottish Government to act: target Z The Scottish Government and its enterprise agencies are Z The four transformational outcomes required by 2030 to put working closely with the Crown Estate on its leasing round Z to reduce greenhouse gas emissions year on year, every year from 2010 to 2050 Scotland on the right track to meet its 2050 target for wave and tidal power in the Pentland Firth strategic area. Z to increase the rate of reduction from 2020 onwards to at Z Milestones and actions; and barriers and risks around This initiative, and others like it, is aimed at developing least 3% per year implementation hundreds of megawatts in Scottish waters by 2020, helping to make Scotland the world leader in wave and tidal power. Z to specify more detailed annual targets in 2010, for each Z Where the policy levers sit, e.g. at EU, UK or Scottish year to 2022. Government levels. Z The Scottish Government has tripled the previous level of funding for community renewables and microgeneration DELIVERY PLAN 1.15 Z Pursuing a zero waste policy that will reduce greenhouse gas

1.12 The Delivery Plan is structured as follows: emissions, especially of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) Greenhouse gas emissions arise from almost every activity we Z Chapter 2 provides an overview of the key sectors for Z The Climate Challenge Fund is inspiring community-based undertake. The main source is the use of fossil fuels to abatement, highlighting the importance of the “traded action in all parts of Scotland to tackle climate change; generate electricity, heat buildings and provide transport. sector” and the sectoral contributions required from key making over £25 million available directly to communities Other significant sources of emissions are the result of chemical areas within the non-traded sector to meet the 34% and to pursue their own ideas or biological processes, for example in the production of 42% targets in 2020. A table summarising the key Z The Scottish Government will shortly publish a guide to cement; emissions associated with the growing of crops and measures, milestones and actions across all the sectors is improve sustainable procurement, for example urging all the rearing of livestock; decomposition of waste; and from soil produced at the end of this chapter public bodies in Scotland to specify fresh, locally available, processes. Z Chapters 3-7 cover each of the main sectors in more detail: seasonal produce Z Electricity Demand and Supply Z Investments in Smarter Measures and public transport, in 1.13 partnership with local authorities, are addressing transport Reducing emissions requires one or more of the following Z Heat Demand and Supply (including small scale emissions and encouraging more walking and cycling. abatement options: electricity generation) Z Reduce energy use through both decreasing demand and Z Transport 1.9 increasing the efficiency with which energy is used Z Rural Land Use (agriculture, forestry and other land But Scotland now needs a better co-ordinated approach, a management) national Delivery Plan showing all the actions that can be Z Reduce the use of fossil fuels and produce more low carbon energy Z Waste. delivered over the next decade and beyond, to achieve the targets Parliament will lay down for Scotland in the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill. 2 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION – CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES The key messages for each sector are set out at the Z Vehicle Excise Duty, Fuel Duty, driving licensing and speed 1.20 beginning of each chapter. A summary of the high level limits on motorways are all reserved to Westminster but The Government is, however, committed to monitoring measures required to deliver the 34% and 42% interim powers around pricing, Smarter Measures and transport Scotland’s progress on a consumption basis as well. This is targets and the relevant transformational outcomes are infrastructure are generally devolved reflected in the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill and the National produced at the end of each chapter. Z Agriculture and forestry policy and delivery are both Outcomes and Indicators supporting the delivery of the devolved but work within an EU framework Government’s Purpose. The Bill requires the Government to Z A final, Next Steps chapter sets out what the Scottish report on Scottish consumption of goods and services each year. Z Landfill Tax is a reserved matter. Government will do over the next 12 months, at the end of 1.21 which, as required by the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill, The National Performance Framework sets a National the Government will produce a Report on Proposals and 1.18 The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Outcome to reduce the local and global environmental impact Policies, setting out in more detail the measures to be of Scotland’s consumption and production with a National delivered to meet Scotland’s annual emissions reduction is the basis on which international agreement on climate change is negotiated. The meeting in Copenhagen in Indicator to reduce Scotland’s overall ecological footprint. This targets up to 2022. footprint gives an overall measure of the global impact of our December 2009 aims to deliver a successor to the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol. A new international agreement would help everyday choices and offers an estimate of the land and sea 1.16 area needed to provide all the energy, water, transport, food Scotland make deep emissions reductions. The European In drawing up a Delivery Plan for emissions reduction, it’s and materials that Scotland consumes. Part of this work will Union has committed to increasing its 2020 emissions important to be clear about: produce a measure of Scotland’s carbon footprint. reduction target from 20% to 30% (from 1990 levels) in the Z Who controls the policy levers, including the distinction event of a new global deal being reached. This would ensure 1.22 between the traded and non-traded sectors that EU policy levers deliver deeper emissions reductions, Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory (the Inventory)2 Z How emissions (and reductions) are measured for the making radical changes more attainable in Scotland. It would details annual emissions from all emission producing activities purpose of the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill and the also reduce some of the economic challenges of an uneven in Scotland, using widely applicable standards. It is published Delivery Plan playing field that may arise if Scotland aims far beyond the approximately five months after the UK’s national inventory. Z The information used in the analysis for the Delivery Plan actions of its neighbours in the EU. It provides the basis for the net Scottish emissions account. Z How costs, benefits and cost effectiveness are considered in 1.23 HOW EMISSIONS ARE MEASURED The net Scottish emissions account lies at the heart of the the Delivery Plan.

1.19 Climate Change (Scotland) Bill. Achievement of the emissions WHO CONTROLS THE POLICY LEVERS? The most accurate way of measuring Scotland’s carbon targets set by the Bill will be measured against the level of this footprint would be to look at the emissions associated with its net account rather than against Scotland’s actual emissions. 1.17 consumption of goods and services. As a country that exports The net Scottish emissions account has two main features: Scotland cannot deliver its challenging targets by acting alone. goods and services, such as electricity and food and drink, but Z Net Scottish emissions, which are the emissions of Scotland is supported, and constrained, by levels of ambition imports many manufactured goods, Scotland’s emissions greenhouse gases attributable to Scotland, as reduced by and policy levers held at UK and EU levels. For example: profile using a consumption measurement would be rather any “removals” of those gases by sinks such as forestry; and Z The emissions reduction targets for the EU Emissions different from an approach based on current production- Trading Scheme, the largest carbon trading scheme in the Z The net effect of any carbon units bought to offset any based measurements. But while a consumption-based world (see Chapter 2), are set at EU level emissions or sold to emitters outside Scotland. approach to measurement might be preferable, data are not Z The main responsibilities for energy policy and regulation yet sufficiently available or robust to use the consumption- The way in which carbon units may be credited to or debited are reserved to Westminster but the UK Government relies based approach consistently. Thus, greenhouse gas emissions from the net Scottish emissions account will be detailed in in turn on decisions that Scotland takes in permitting new targets in Scottish, UK, EU and other international legislation statutory regulations. However, the underlying principle in the sources of electricity generation are based on the emissions that arise from the production of Bill is that Scottish Ministers should be able to take account of goods and services within a country. the annual balance of carbon units used. 2 http://www.naei.org.uk/reports.php?list=GHG 3 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION – CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

1.28 ECONOMIC COSTS, BENEFITS, AND THE INFORMATION USED IN THE ANALYSIS FOR Taking the emissions inventory for agricultural land use as an COST-EFFECTIVENESS THE DELIVERY PLAN example, at present it meets international standards for 1.31 1.24 reporting emissions, but it is not fit for the purpose of capturing According to Sir Nicholas Stern’s Review5, the costs of stabilising This Delivery Plan is informed by the best available evidence, year-on-year changes in land use management policies and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at or below drawing on the expert analysis of the UK Committee on Climate practice. This issue is being addressed at present at both UK 550ppm CO2e, to avoid an increase in global temperature of Change coupled with Scottish Government internal analysis. and Scottish levels, but will not be solved in the short term. 2-3°C (less than the temperature increase of 5% from unabated climate change) are 1% (+/-3%) of global GDP6. 1.25 1.29 Failure to take action would, in his view, lead to climate change Key information resources for this analysis are: Governments worldwide have a poor record of predicting the impacts that would reduce global GDP by between 5% and 20%. emission outcomes of their policies and programmes with Z Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions Inventory accuracy. In part, this reflects the difficulty of predicting wider 1.32 Z Technical models that estimate marginal costs and economic indicators, as well as problems of forecasting future abatement of emission-reducing activities The economic costs of transformational change to Scotland’s energy prices. Governments use energy and land use models economy and society to meet our climate change targets are Z Energy and land use system models, which consider future to project emissions from human activities into the future. UK not high relative to total economic output over the next 40 years. supply and demand scenarios and their associated models typically project out to 2020. The Scottish Government emissions/sequestration recently published its energy projections to 20204. While these 1.33 Z Expert assessment of the practical constraints to reducing are useful as a guide to future emissions and abatement The overall cost estimate is the aggregation of a range of costs emissions. potential from different sectors, the projections are dependent and benefits, as well as distributional impacts across society. on a series of assumptions, such as future levels of economic There will be a substantial financial cost for both the public and 1.26 or population growth or average household warmth. Beyond private sectors through the cost of carbon being incorporated The Committee on Climate Change3 has advised the UK 2020, the uncertainties within the assumptions make into the price of goods and services and the cost of investing Government to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions projecting emissions particularly difficult. in new low carbon infrastructure. Many of such activities, by 34% by 2020 relative to 1990 levels, and by 42% once a particularly efficiency projects, are “net positive”, meaning global deal to reduce emissions is achieved. The Committee 1.30 that, though they might require an upfront investment, the also identified indicative potential to reduce emissions in To deliver deep cuts in emissions, it is important to see activity eventually both reduces emissions and saves money. Scotland to contribute to the delivery of a UK 34% target. beyond one particular year’s emissions figures, which might be influenced by a range of random events, and focus on the 1.34 1.27 underlying structural causes of emissions. For this plan, The Delivery Plan does not set out in detail how particular The process of analysis for the Delivery Plan has thrown up therefore, the key focus is on the necessary measures, measures will be delivered or resourced. This will be done in the relative paucity of data and effective carbon assessment milestones and actions, along with the barriers and risks the more detailed, statutory Report on Proposals and Policies for certain policy areas at sub-UK level. A great deal of work is around implementation, as they are seen today. This Plan and to be published by the Scottish Government in summer 2010, underway across the Scottish Government and by the the more detailed, statutory Report on Proposals and Policies which will set out how the annual emissions reduction targets Committee on Climate Change to remedy these weaknesses to be published in 2010 will be revised and refined over time to 2022 will be delivered. Work on costs will clearly also including work on carbon assessment. Given the imperative of as further evidence and advice becomes available. feature in the continuing work on the carbon assessment of early progress, action has to be taken now based on best the Scottish Government budget for 2010-11. available information, recognising that the Plan will need to be revised in time. 3 The CCC’s First Report: Building a low-carbon economy - the UK's contribution 4 Scottish Energy Study, Volume 5 (November 2008) 5 The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (October 2006) to tackling climate change was published on 1st December 2008 http://www.occ.gov.uk/activities/stern.htm http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/ 6 World Bank estimates suggest that 1% of global GDP equates to around $650 billion, taking into account both exchange rates and also the purchasing power of each world currency against the dollar, in 2007. 4 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION – CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Carbon Pricing 1.38 Z Improved productivity and competitiveness through energy

1.35 The Scottish Government published the Scottish Environmental efficiency products and distributed energy services to To influence behaviour and investment decisions, investors Attitudes and Behaviours Survey7 in March 2009, and its findings communities and businesses and consumers must believe that a significant carbon price will be crucial to work going forward on behavioural change. Z Technology developments created by strong Scottish will be a factor into the future. This is particularly important to This major survey of 3,000 adults found that: research and development work that can help build strong ensure appropriate investments in long-lived capital stock such Z People were more likely to see the environment as a global world-leading energy businesses that develop both as power stations, buildings and industrial plant. The price of problem than as an important issue facing Scotland domestic and export markets carbon is largely outside Scottish influence. Z When questioned further, most acknowledged climate change Z An improved skills base to deliver the exponential change in was an urgent problem, but around a third did not believe output from the non-fossil fuel energy sector that will be Technology Policy their own behaviour contributed to climate change; and required to place energy at the centre of Scotland’s future

1.36 Z When asked what they could do to reduce climate change, prosperity The development and deployment of a wide range of low- most described relatively 'easy' actions such as recycling as Z Cost savings through energy efficiency improvements that free carbon technologies is essential in achieving the deep cuts in opposed to actions which demand more of a sacrifice. up resources and increase demand for goods and services. emissions that are needed. While the private sector will be the driver of change, closer collaboration between government 1.39 NATIONAL CONVERSATION and industry will help overcome risk and stimulate the The survey suggests that public attitudes need to be improved, 1.42 development of a broad portfolio of low carbon technologies and there is clearly work for the Scottish Government to do on Choosing Scotland’s Future inspired a National Conversation and reduce costs. this. However, attitude change is not sufficient, it is behavioural on the type of government which best equips Scotland for the change which is key. Across all groups surveyed, including the future. The ultimate aim of the National Conversation8 is to Behaviour Change greenest groups, participation in some forms of green allow the people of Scotland to make an informed decision 1.37 behaviour were very low: for example, 44% of those who live a about their future in a referendum on independence in 2010. Even where measures to reduce emissions are cost-effective, mile from work and own a car drive there. This suggests that there may be barriers preventing action. These can include a in order to foster real improvements efforts must be focussed 1.43 lack of reliable information, transaction costs, and behavioural on understanding and enabling behaviour change. The current economic crisis has clearly demonstrated many and organisational inertia. Regulatory measures can play a weaknesses in the existing constitutional system. Scotland has powerful role in cutting through these barriers, and by 1.40 very limited scope to adjust taxation or increase expenditure providing clarity and certainty. Minimum standards can be a On the benefits side, those nations leading such investment to to provide a fiscal stimulus. The Scottish Government cannot cost-effective way to improve performance, particularly where shift the world to a low carbon economy might, Stern suggested, borrow money to fund public works, or make changes to price signals may be too muted to have a significant impact. benefit from a share of a global market for low carbon benefits, pensions or tax credits to meet Scottish needs. Information policies, including labelling and the sharing of technologies worth at least $500 billion per annum by 2050. Instead, Scotland is dependent on the decisions made by the best practice, can help consumers and businesses make United Kingdom Government at Westminster. 1.41 sound decisions, and stimulate competitive markets for low- With the right policy environment and appropriately targeted 1.44 carbon goods and services. Financing measures can also help incentives and investment by the public and private sector Choices are also limited on issues such as climate change, overcome upfront investment cost constraints when delivering Scotland’s business sectors can benefit from an early move to investment in renewable energy, and in how Scotland’s voice energy efficiency improvements in particular. a low carbon world by: is heard in Europe and internationally. The issues which may Z Taking opportunities to strengthen the Scottish supply impact on the Scottish Government’s ability to meet its chain for low carbon investments, especially in renewable statutory climate change targets are considered below in each and low carbon energy and distributed energy systems of the sectoral chapters of the Delivery Plan. 7 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/by-topic/environment/social-research/ 8 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/a-national-conversation SESEN/workprogramme/Themes 5 6 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF SECTORS FOR ABATEMENT

2.1 A comprehensive approach to ensure that carbon CHAPTER 2: Reducing emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels, over the Z (including the cost of carbon) is fully factored into strategic OVERVIEW OF SECTORS next 40 years will require a radical change in the way in which society uses its energy and land. Some sectors will find it and local decisions about rural land use through: appropriate protection for Scotland’s carbon rich soils; FOR ABATEMENT more difficult to reduce emissions by this extent without unacceptable changes in Scotland’s social fabric or significant minimising emissions from agricultural and other land use businesses; encouraging the sequestration of carbon, for changes to consumer behaviour; that may mean other sectors example, through woodland planting; and the use of natural will need to go further. resources to generate renewable energy. Delivery of these transformational outcomes will be 2.2 considered further in the sectoral chapters on Electricity This chapter sets out the emissions reductions required across Demand and Supply; Heat Demand and Supply; Transport; all sectors to meet the 34% and 42% targets in 2020 and the and Rural Land Use. four transformational outcomes which need to be substantially delivered by 2030 to put Scotland on the correct pathway to the 2.4 2050 target. Underpinning these transformational outcomes Evidence suggests that society can reduce demand and is the need to give primacy to cost effective demand reduction de-carbonise its energy supply, especially in countries like and energy efficiency across all sectors. Scotland with rich natural resources and a highly skilled workforce. The challenge is for Scotland to do this and, at the 2.3 same time, maximise the economic opportunities available in The four transformational outcomes which the Scottish the pursuit of a global, low carbon economy. Government is working towards are: Z A largely de-carbonised electricity generation sector by 2.5 2030, primarily using renewable sources for electricity Delivering the Scottish Government’s 10 Energy Pledges10 will generation with other electricity generation from fossil be a key driver in meeting Scotland’s 2020 targets and fuelled plants utilising carbon capture and storage9 achieving the transformational outcomes in the electricity, heat and transport sectors. The 10 pledges are: Z A largely de-carbonised heat sector by 2050 with significant progress by 2030 through a combination of reduced demand and energy efficiency, together with a massive increase in the use of renewable or low carbon heating Z Almost complete decarbonisation of road transport by 2050 with significant progress by 2030 through wholesale adoption of electric cars and vans, and significant decarbonisation of rail by 2050 Photo: Scottish Government 9 Carbon capture and storage refers to the suite of technologies that capture 10 The Energy Pledges can be found in full at greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and store them in geological formations for http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/917/0081161.pdf the long term. 7 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF SECTORS FOR ABATEMENT Z PLEDGE 1: We will support and accelerate the FIGURE 1: SCOTTISH NET GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, 1990, 2006, AND 2020 AND 2050 TARGETS1, 2 implementation of renewable energy, through our Renewable Energy Action Plan, in a way which promotes large scale, community based, decentralised and 90 sustainable generation. Z PLEDGE 2: We will aim to build a commercially viable, 80 diverse renewable heat industry in Scotland to deliver benefits to the wider public, through the implementation of 70 our Renewable Heat Action Plan. 60 Z PLEDGE 3: We will work with the oil and gas sector to maintain its competitiveness, facilitate the transfer of skills and knowledge to other sectors and utilise Scottish-based 50 MtCO2e skills in world markets. 40 Z PLEDGE 4: We will enhance our capability to undertake energy and environmental foresight, and develop our 30 preparedness to anticipate and respond to threats and take advantage of opportunities. 20 Z PLEDGE 5: We will support development and implementation of clean fossil fuel technologies in 10 Scotland, through collaboration with academia, industry and other interested parties. Z PLEDGE 6: We will support the development of sub-sea grids, alongside improvements in the onshore grids, and -10 2020 - 34% 2020 - 42% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2050 press the UK Government for fairer charging structures. Z PLEDGE 7: We will implement measures to improve -20 Scotland’s energy use through the Energy Efficiency Action Plan, which is a key part of the Scottish Government’s Climate Change Bill. Traded sector – adjusted for ETS Woodland Z PLEDGE 8: We will develop and deliver more sustainable Heat Other (before ETS) transport to improve efficiency and reduce transport emissions in the longer term. Rural land use (excluding woodland) Domestic and international aviation Z PLEDGE 9: We will promote the development, uptake and Climate Change Bill targets Waste use of electric and other low carbon vehicles, in addition to Other non-traded TOTAL – adjusted for ETS using improvements in vehicle engineering which are Transport already available. Z PLEDGE 10: We will work to develop international 1 Traded sector here does not include estimates of 2007 and 2008 additions to coverage. partnerships through the Saltire Prize and the Scottish 2 Domestic and international aviation emissions are computed without an adjustment for radiative forcing – this is in line with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines European Green Energy Centre to make Scotland a leader for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. in the development and deployment of green energy. 8 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF SECTORS FOR ABATEMENT

2.6 THE TRADED AND NON-TRADED SECTORS 2.12 The statutory planning system also has an important role in 2.10 Emissions from the traded sector in Scotland, including climate change mitigation through its influence over the Scotland’s major power stations and energy intensive aviation, which will be included in the EU Emissions Trading location and scale of new development. Development plans, industrial installations, covering around 40% of Scotland’s Scheme from 2012, equate to approximately 29 MtCO2, which which are prepared by local authorities and the national park greenhouse gas emissions, fall within the scope of the EU includes about 19 MtCO2 from the production of the public authorities, indicate where development should happen and Emissions Trading Scheme, the world’s primary carbon supply of electricity. where it should not and provide the basis for decisions about trading market, and often described as the “traded sector”. individual applications for planning permission. 2.13

2.11 The EU Emissions Trading Scheme is expected to deliver SCOTLAND’S EMISSIONS The non-traded sector consists of all the other sectors: about two thirds of all emissions reductions in Europe to 2020. 2.7 heating domestic and non-domestic buildings; transport The emissions reduction trajectory for the traded sector is set Figure 1 shows Scotland's emissions from 1990 to 2006, the excluding aviation; rural land use including agriculture, at EU level. This carbon market is designed to uncover most recent year for which information is available. forestry and other land use; and waste. Emissions in the key emissions reductions where they can be achieved at least The reduction in net emissions reflects the outcome of parts of the non-traded sector for 2006 are set out in Figure 2. cost. In this Plan, we apply the trajectory estimated by the competing actions: the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions Department of Energy and Climate Change for Scotland, from the closure of the Ravenscraig steelworks; from the although the portion of emissions that will be assigned to increased sequestration from forests planted in previous FIGURE 2: NON-TRADED SCOTTISH GREENHOUSE GAS Scotland’s emissions account is yet to be agreed formally. decades; and from more energy efficient households has been EMISSIONS BY SECTOR, 2006 The EU Emissions Trading Scheme has developed in three largely offset by rising emissions from road transport and phases: Phase 1 from 2005-2007; Phase 2 from 2008-2012; 35 and Phase 3 from 2013-2020. The reduction in allocated power generation activities. TOTAL 30 emissions to Scotland over these three phases, from 2005 to 2.8 2020, is set out in Figure 3, and takes the form of roughly Methane emissions have reduced substantially, because of 25 constant emissions to 2012 followed by annual reductions of better management of landfill emissions and reduced livestock 20 Rural around 2% from 2013 to 2020. Figure 4 shows the difference numbers. Nitrous oxide emissions have fallen sharply because land use Transport (excluding between actual (end of year) Scottish emissions and allocated of the relocation of Scotland's only nitric acid plant in the 1990s 15 woodland) emissions in the traded sector between 2005 and 2007. MtCO2e to Dublin and, as a result of changing agricultural practices. Heat 10 Other Overall, Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions have reduced 5 non-traded 2.14 by 18% between 1990 and 2006 (including international Waste Woodland Accounting for emissions reductions in the traded sector is aviation and shipping, and after adjustment for the EU 0 more complicated than simply examining the end of year Emissions Trading Scheme (see below)). -5 emissions themselves. The crucial point about the EU Emissions Trading Scheme is that emissions are allowed to go 2.9 -10 up or down in Scotland as long as overall emissions in the EU The remainder of this chapter describes the importance of the -15 scheme are capped and reducing. To account for this traded and non-traded sectors and sets out the emissions situation, emissions are allocated to countries through their reductions required from the key sectors to meet Scotland’s industry allowance allocations or through the allocation of 2020 targets. auctioning rights. This means that the net Scottish emissions account will show the emissions plus/minus carbon units from the traded sector on a fixed downward trajectory to 2020, regardless of end-of-year emissions. 9 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF SECTORS FOR ABATEMENT FIGURE 3: SCOTLAND'S TRADED SECTOR ALLOCATION, 2.15 MEETING SCOTLAND’S 2020 TARGETS 2005 TO 202011 The impact of the traded sector in contributing to the delivery 2.18 25 of Scotland’s 2020 targets and transformational outcomes is The Committee on Climate Change’s First Report12 laid out considered in more detail in Chapter 3: Electricity Demand measures for meeting a 34% UK target in the absence of a and Supply. new global agreement, and additional measures for meeting a 20 42% target without purchasing extra carbon credits. The 34% 2.16 measures selected were those with a marginal abatement cost A key forthcoming policy lever which operates across both the of less than the forecast price of carbon in 2020, £40/tCO2e, 15 traded and non-traded sector is the Carbon Reduction or those with a higher cost that were considered important MtCO2 Commitment. The Carbon Reduction Commitment is a stepping stones on the way to 2050. The additional measures mandatory emissions trading scheme being implemented for 42% were further feasible, but more radical, options. 10 jointly by the UK Government and Devolved Administrations. It begins in April 2010 and will regulate emissions from large, 2.19 5 non-energy-intensive commercial and public sector To achieve Scotland’s interim targets in 2020, significant cuts organisations which are not already covered by the EU in emissions are required in both the traded and non-traded Emissions Trading Scheme or Climate Change Agreements. sectors. On the basis of advice from the Committee on 0 These include supermarkets, hotel chains, banks, local Climate Change and internal analysis within the Scottish 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 authorities and government departments. The Carbon Government, the relative effort required by each of these Reduction Commitment is designed to generate a shift in sectors is likely to be as set out in Figure 5 and Figure 6. Estimated additional emissions from changes to scheme in 2007 and 2008 awareness of energy use in large organisations and to drive Actual allowances changes in behaviour and infrastructure. After a three year 2.20 introductory phase, an annually-decreasing emissions cap The Emissions Trading Scheme ensures that the anticipated FIGURE 4: SCOTTISH TRADED SECTOR ACTUAL EMISSIONS will be set, the level of which will be decided following advice emissions reductions are achieved from the traded sector to AND ALLOCATION, 2005 TO 2007 from the Committee on Climate Change. 2020. In the event of a global deal, the EU will set the 25 Emissions Trading Scheme on a steeper trajectory, thereby 2.17 providing additional support for Scotland’s 42% interim target. Other key policy levers which straddle the traded and non- The carbon savings from the traded sector for the 34% and 42% 20 traded sectors, although with greater emphasis on reducing targets are set out in Figure 5 and Figure 6. Under agreements heat demand, are the suite of UK supplier obligations which at EU level, half of the additional emissions reductions to aim to mobilise and support a radical shift in our use of meet the 42% target must come from abatement measures 15 energy in our homes. The Carbon Emissions Reduction Target within the EU traded sector. The option is available for the MtCO2 is a statutory obligation on energy suppliers to achieve carbon other half to come from the purchase of international carbon targets by encouraging households to take up energy units by participating installations in the EU Emissions 10 efficiency and low carbon measures. The UK Government’s Trading Scheme. proposed Community Energy Saving Programme would place 5 an obligation on energy suppliers and electricity generators to meet a carbon reduction target by offering energy efficiency measures to domestic consumers using a 'whole house 0 approach'. Although the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target 2005 2006 2007 Traded sector emissions Traded sector allocation (and the Community Energy Saving Programme) is reserved, it impacts on and interacts with devolved policies such as 11 Allocation from 2008 to 2020 is an estimate and may change depending on how Scottish Government fuel poverty, climate change, renewables the UK’s new entrant reserve is allocated. and energy efficiency initiatives. 12 Available from: http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/ 10 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF SECTORS FOR ABATEMENT FIGURE 5: CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE TRADED13 AND 2.21 NON-TRADED SECTORS TO MEET THE 34% TARGET IN 2020 Significant, and proportionately higher, reductions will also have to be made in the non-traded sector. To meet the 80 different targets the non-traded sector needs to deliver an 70 annual reduction in 2020 (against 2006 levels) of: Z About 6 MtCO2e for the 34% target; and 60 Z About 8 MtCO2e for the 42% target. 50 MtCO2 70.1 2.22 40 Table 1 shows the key sectors for abatement to 2020 and the 33 27 emissions reductions necessary. The analysis supporting this 30 Plan suggests that meeting the statutory 2020 target will 2 20 2 depend on all potential cost-effective emissions reductions being delivered in full. 23 10 17 SUMMARY OF MILESTONES AND ACTIONS TO 2020, 0 1990 2006 2020 2030 AND 2050 2.23 All emissions Non-traded Aviation Traded Table 2 outlines the key milestones and actions, across all sectors, associated with the delivery of the 2020 targets and FIGURE 6: CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE TRADED13 AND the transformational outcomes to meet the ultimate goal of NON-TRADED SECTORS TO MEET THE 42% TARGET IN 2020 reducing emissions by at least 80% by 2050. The following 80 chapters consider each of the key sectors: Electricity Demand and Supply; Heat Demand and Supply; Transport; Rural Land 70 Use; and Waste, in more detail. 60 50 MtCO2 70.1 40 33 25 30 2 20 2 23 10 14 0 1990 2006 2020 All emissions Non-traded Aviation Traded 13 The traded sector figure for 2006 includes estimated emissions from sites that joined the scheme in 2007 and 2008. Traded sector in 2020 excludes the extra coverage that will be added in 2013. 11 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF SECTORS FOR ABATEMENT TABLE 1: NET EMISSIONS IN 1990 AND 2006, AND NECESSARY EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS IN 2020, BY SECTOR 1990 2006 2020 emissions – 34% Scottish target 2020 emissions – 42% Scottish target emissions emissions % change against ... % change against ... MtCO2e MtCO2e MtCO2e 1990 2006 MtCO2e 1990 2006 Traded sector allocation1 22.8 17.5 – –23% 14.2 – –38% Phase 1 traded sector 20.4 Not traded in 2006 but traded in Phase II 2.4 Aviation – domestic and international 1.1 2.0 1.8 +69% –9% 1.8 +69% –9% Other, non-traded2 3.8 4.3 – +13% 4.3 – +13% Other, before ETS introduced 33.2 Heat 10.2 9.3 5.4 –47% –42% 5.0 –51% –46% Domestic Buildings 7.8 7.3 Non-domestic Buildings 2.4 2.1 Transport 13.7 14.5 11.2 –18% –23% 10.0 –27% –32% Road 9.2 10.5 Rail 0.2 0.3 Off-road 1.6 1.6 Shipping – domestic and international 2.6 2.2 Waste 5.7 2.5 1.6 –73% –39% 1.5 –73% –39% Rural land use (excluding woodland) 14.5 12.7 12.0 –17% –8% 11.4 –21% –10% Agricultural and other land use – net sources3 16.9 15.7 Agricultural and other land use – net sinks –2.4 –2.9 Woodland –8.2 –10.1 –7.4 * * –7.7 * * TOTAL (after adjustment for EU ETS) 70.1 57.6 46.3 –34% –20% 40.5 –42% –30% 1 The traded sector expanded its coverage in 2007 and in 2008, and the size of this extra coverage has been estimated and included in the 2006 total. Coverage will change again in 2013 but these changes have not been considered here. 2 “Other, non-traded” comprises emissions that are currently not included in the EU ETS, but do not fit within the categories of “Heat”, “Transport”, etc. These are mainly from non-energy-intensive industry and products emitting non-CO2 greenhouse gases. 3 Includes emissions from land converted to settlements, some of which may be in urban areas. * Percentage has been omitted to avoid confusion when looking at changes in negative numbers. 12 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF SECTORS FOR ABATEMENT TABLE 2: MILESTONES AND ACTIONS TO DELIVER THE CLIMATE CHANGE (SCOTLAND) BILL TARGETS SECTOR 2020 2030 2050 ELECTRICITY Milestone More than 50% of electricity from renewable sources De-carbonised electricity generation from EU North Sea grid in place renewables and fossil fuel plant with CCS Actions Substantial investment in marine and tidal energy and infrastructure; and in grid connections for offshore wind Milestone Fully operational commercial CCS plant “Smart” grids balance demand Actions Publish CCS route map; win EU/UK CCS pilot plant project(s); CCS levy to fund commercialisation; demonstration plant by 2015 Milestone All homes have “smart” meters Actions UK Government committed to deliver smart meters by 2020 HEAT Milestone 11% of heat from renewable sources Significant progress towards de-carbonised heat Largely de-carbonised heat supply Actions Renewable Heat Incentive delivers cost-effective low-carbon heat Move towards all off-gas grid properties using low Maximise the use of all biomass resources for heating carbon heat – communities have access to mature local biomass market Work towards replacing remaining natural gas grid with biogas and local heat networks Milestone All suitable cavity walls and lofts insulated where possible Actions Home Insulation Scheme and Energy Assistance Package drive high take-up of insulation Develop low carbon building standards for 2016/7 Milestone Commercial and public sector uses energy efficiently Actions Carbon Reduction Commitment in place from 2010 TRANSPORT Milestone EU delivers <95g/km target for new cars Wholesale adoption of electric cars and vans Transport largely de-carbonised Actions EU regulations forthcoming for new car and van efficiencies Develop biofuels for use in HGVs, aviation and shipping Milestone Battery charging infrastructure network in cities/towns Actions Plan and develop battery charging infrastructure RURAL LAND Milestone Woodland planting rate raised to 10-15 kha/year; use of existing Additional woodfuel capacity from woodland Forest cover approaching 25% USE woodfuel resource maximised expansion of Scotland Actions Develop new funding models Milestone All cost-effective land management measures have high adoption rates Emissions taken into account in land use decisions Emissions minimised and Actions Support, advice and appropriate incentives for land managers sequestration maximised WASTE Milestone Land filling no more than 5% of municipal waste (2025) More waste streams banned from landfill Further materials banned from landfill Near zero emissions from landfill Actions Halt growth in municipal waste Monitor progress on anaerobic digestion Further measures to minimise waste, increase re-use and recycling Research project commissioned in 2009 on landfill bans 13 14 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 3: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY BACKGROUND 3.5 CHAPTER 3: 3.1 Among the key infrastructure projects which the second ELECTRICITY DEMAND Electricity use by homes and businesses is primarily for lighting, information technology and white goods and, for National Planning Framework designates as national developments are electricity grid reinforcements necessary to AND SUPPLY those premises off the gas grid, heating. realise the potential of Scotland’s renewable energy resources and baseload electricity generation projects which will enable

3.2 Scotland to play a lead role in the development of carbon Greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 from large scale capture and storage technology. production of electricity were equivalent to over 30% of total Scottish emissions. These emissions were largely from MEETING SCOTLAND’S 2020 TARGETS Scotland’s three thermal power stations: Longannet (coal), 3.6 Peterhead (gas/oil) and Cockenzie (coal). Cockenzie is As set out in Table 1 in Chapter 2, the traded sector has to KEY MESSAGES currently scheduled to close by 2015 at the latest under deliver emissions reductions in 2020 from 2006 levels of about European legislation, while the other power stations are 5 MtCO2e (34% Scottish target) or about 9 MtCO2e (42% Scottish • The traded sector has to deliver emissions currently expected to continue generating electricity beyond target). reductions in 2020 of about 5 MtCO2e 2020. Actual greenhouse gas emissions fluctuate significantly (34% Scottish target) or about 9 MtCO2e year on year for various reasons including fuel price 3.7 (42% Scottish target) against 2006 levels fluctuations, demand from consumers, changing weather This level of savings has already been set at an EU level • Primacy is given to cost effective demand patterns, and rising levels of renewable electricity. through the Emissions Trading Scheme. To meet the 34% reduction including more efficient use of Scottish target, the allocated emissions for Scotland’s traded electricity 3.3 sector will decline by around 23% by 2020 (see Table 1). To • It is essential to deliver Transformational Emissions from power stations fall within the traded sector. meet a 42% Scottish target, allocated emissions will have to Outcome 1: Renewable sources of electricity have zero net emissions. decline by around 38%. Scottish emissions from this sector, as recorded in the net A largely de-carbonised electricity 3.8 Scottish emissions account (see Chapter 2) follow the generation sector by 2030, primarily using Measures in the electricity sector which contribute to the trajectory set for the EU traded sector, regardless of total renewable sources for electricity generation meeting of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme cap to 2020 electricity production or the amount of renewable electricity. with other electricity generation from fossil include: fuelled plants utilising carbon capture and

3.4 Z Demand reduction and management, and changing storage Energy policy is formally reserved to the UK Government and behaviour • As gas and oil use is largely phased out, the bulk of powers affecting energy regulation are exercised Z Promotion of renewable electricity, including micro- and there will be an increased demand for by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change. small-scale production electricity from the heat and transport However, the Scottish Government does have powers over: sectors the planning and consenting of electricity generating stations Z Efficiency standards in electrical products and appliances. • Scotland has huge natural and comparative and overhead transmission lines; the promotion of renewable energy including the operation of the Renewable Obligation; 3.9 advantages and could become a world The measures and the actions relevant to the traded sector leader in the development of both and the promotion of energy efficiency. Photo: Scottish Government are summarised in Table 3 at the end of this chapter. They are renewable electricity and carbon capture considered more fully below as each of the main delivery and storage mechanisms is considered. • The delivery of the relevant Energy Pledges is essential (see Chapter 2) 15 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 3: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY TRANSFORMATIONAL OUTCOME 1: Managing demand/changing behaviour 3.15 DE-CARBONISING ELECTRICITY GENERATION 3.14 A range of policies deliver financial and information support

3.10 The inclusion of electricity production in the traded sector for more efficient use of electricity: including European The primary transformational outcome for the traded sector is: means that reducing electricity use does not have any appliance standards and labelling; new buildings standards; material impact on the emissions trajectory recorded in the and actions undertaken under the UK supplier obligations to A largely de-carbonised electricity generation sector by 2030, improve electrical energy efficiency in existing homes (see primarily using renewable sources for electricity generation net Scottish emissions account, since the emission reduction trajectory is set regardless of levels of electricity Chapter 2). The impact of individual behaviour is also critical with other electricity generation from fossil-fuelled plants in reducing electricity demand. utilising carbon capture and storage. consumption. However, reducing wasteful use of energy improves social and individual welfare and is a critical step towards a low carbon economy. It can also result in significant 3.16

3.11 Evidence suggests that one of the barriers to householders This transformational outcome is the key to putting Scotland financial savings for the public sector and commercial organisations. Given the expected increase in demand for taking action is that neither they, nor their suppliers, have on the path towards a low carbon economy. The traded sector, sufficient knowledge about consumption levels within their on the basis of the present EU Emissons Trading Scheme electricity from transport and heating energy requirements, more efficient use of electricity will be needed to moderate house. To address this all households need smart meters to provisions, is not designed to achieve this outcome. Additional provide real time information on electricity consumption to the interventions at UK and Scottish level are required over and overall increase in demand. A key challenge for society is to ensure organisations and individuals take up the potential householder and supplier. The UK Government is committed to above the current trajectory defined for the EU traded sector. fitting smart gas and electricity meters to all homes by 202014. benefits associated with using energy efficiently. In late 3.12 summer 2009, the Scottish Government will consult on the Energy Efficiency Action Plan which will cover both electricity 3.17 The measures needed to deliver the transformational More effective understanding of household and business outcome at reasonable economic cost are: and heat use, and will: electricity consumption can lead to more sophisticated Z Reduction in overall electricity demand and increase in Z Oversee the strategic direction of the Government’s energy approaches to demand management, such as the use of energy efficiency of products and appliances efficiency policies dynamic pricing (where the price is set by demand levels Z Increase in renewable sources of electricity, including Z Set out indicative energy savings needed from different through the day). This will enable load balancing across the large-, small- and micro-scale developments sectors to contribute to greenhouse gas reductions electricity grid to cope more effectively with intermittent Z Set out key activities in each sector and identify key gaps in renewable sources of electricity, as well as increasing Z Decrease in carbon intensity of any remaining thermal activity that need to be tackled. Activities include: supplies of electricity into distribution networks from generation, through the use of carbon capture and storage. communities and businesses. Z Replacing fuel poverty programmes with the Energy These measures and the actions required to deliver them are Assistance Package 3.18 summarised in Table 3 at the end of this chapter. They are Z Efforts to ensure Scotland retains a fair share of GB-wide Businesses already have multiple economic instruments considered more fully below. domestic efficiency measures, funded through the GB- applied to their electricity use to encourage demand wide Carbon Emissions Reduction Target scheme reduction, including: the Climate Change Levy (or associated THE MAIN DELIVERY MECHANISMS Agreements); the price feed-through from the EU Emissions Z Bring forward further details for the first stage of an area 3.13 based home insulation scheme. Trading Scheme; and for large electricity consumers the The main delivery mechanisms to de-carbonise the electricity forthcoming Carbon Reduction Commitment. There are no generation sector by 2030 are: immediate gaps in this policy framework, though the rate of Z Managing demand/changing behaviour emissions reductions does yet not match the targets set out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill. Z Renewable electricity Z Micro- and small-scale production of electricity; and Z Large-scale electricity generation. 14 The UK Government is presently consulting on the roll out of smart meters. The consultation asks about the proposal to have a stand alone display unit, and the kind of data provided by, and accessibility of, the displays. 16 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 3: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY Renewable Electricity FIGURE 7: PROJECTED SCOTTISH ELECTRICITY GENERATION Micro- and small-scale production of electricity.

3.19 MIX TO 2020 (FROM SCOTTISH ENERGY STUDY VOLUME 5, 3.23 Scotland’s renewable electricity policy framework, which is 2008) Low carbon energy production by households or communities based on the Renewables Obligation on suppliers to source an 60 blurs the distinction between the electricity and heat sectors increasing level of renewable electricity, is designed to deliver at local levels. Measures with abatement potential and targets of 31% gross electricity demand from renewable 50 milestones from these activities are reported in the heat 4.5 Total generation over year, TWh sources by 2011 and at least 50% by 2020. This equates to 4.5 4.5 4.5 sector chapter. This will include activities associated with any

8.4 GW of installed renewables capacity by 2020; current 2.9 0.6 8.1 potential feed-in tariff for electricity. 40 12.6 activity suggests that these targets will be met comfortably. 3.6 0.6 17.1 Scotland is estimated to have up to 60 GW of raw renewable 3.6 0.6 Large-scale electricity generation 3.6 electricity resources, which could make Scotland a major 30 3.24 18.7 0.6 exporter of renewable electricity to the rest of UK and further 17.9 3.6 Both the Scottish and UK Governments are working to afield. Delivering the onshore and offshore grid connections 17.9 promote the deployment of carbon capture and storage 20 9.1 that will connect, transport and export this renewable energy 6.3 demonstrators at fossil fuel power stations and will be potential is challenging. There are significant regulatory, 3.8 0.6 0.6 consulting this summer on appropriate financial incentives. financial, logisitic and environmental considerations to 10 5.9 10.5 This approach seeks to bridge the technology innovation gap address, which will involve balancing a range of policy 12.1 11.4 0.6 0.6 that currently exists between demonstration and full-scale 5.9 4.2 considerations and views and making difficult decisions about 0 operational carbon capture and storage plant. developing Scotland’s future grid network. 2005 2010 2015 2020 Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear 3.25

3.20 Carbon capture and storage technologies have been Large Hydro Pumped Hydro Renewables The requirement on the UK to meet EU renewable energy demonstrated in isolation and on a small scale around the targets by 2020, equating to 15% of all energy use (including Other Generators world. Full-scale demonstrators are expected to be built by transport and heat) from renewable sources, will lead to strong 2013-2015, assuming appropriate financial support is demand from elsewhere in the UK for Scottish renewable 3.22 available. Since new fossil-fuelled power stations have electricity. Figure 7, taken from Volume 5 of the Scottish While renewable electricity can deliver the majority of operational lives to well beyond 2030, it is necessary to Energy Study15, sets out the electricity generation mix in 2005 Scotland’s needs by 2030, intermittent renewable sources of impose guarantees that these power stations will be fitted and projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020. electricity require back-up or grid balancing generation. with carbon capture technologies before 2030. The Scottish There is an important pipeline of fossil-fuel technology Government is currently considering which mechanisms 3.21 projects, which are flexible systems to provide back-up to might be put in place through its consenting powers to ensure The renewable electricity targets can be met without renewable generation and where necessary provide support. that carbon capture and storage technology is installed at new significant grid investment beyond that currently approved by The National Planning Framework identifies potential sites for and existing baseload stations as soon as possible. Ofgem. But additional grid reinforcement, which is currently clean fossil fuel development and the range of onshore grid being planned, will accommodate over 11 GW of Scottish reinforcement that will be needed to deliver Scotland’s renewables generation by 2020 and over 25 GW by 2030. renewable energy future, as well as highlighting the A new Scottish Renewables Action Plan will be published for importance of sub-sea grid. The Scottish Government will consultation in summer 2009. shortly publish a roadmap for developing carbon capture and storage to support the outcome of the decarbonisation of electricity production by 2030. In addition, more sophisticated (“smart”) grid balancing approaches are being developed, using dynamic demand management and distributed two way charging (for example from using electric vehicles plugged into the grid), ultra-capacitors, and hydrogen fuel cells. 15 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/11/14093227/0 17 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 3: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY

3.26 BARRIERS AND RISKS Over the next two decades, decommissioning activities 3.29 currently planned will remove the current large-scale nuclear The need for additional intervention during the next two power stations in Scotland. Some level of new thermal power decades to de-carbonise the sector by 2030 carries two key is therefore necessary to complement the rising renewable risks: capacity. Scotland has the local technical expertise and the physical geology to be a world leader in carbon capture and Z The costs associated with bringing online additional storage technologies. This will bring substantial economic renewables and delivering carbon capture and storage opportunities and benefits. However, the economic and Z The possibility of failure of one of the key technologies, such environmental benefits will only be realised if both pilot and as carbon capture and storage, or the failure of more full-scale technologies operate in Scotland. It is likely that effective demand management from the use of smart both nuclear and carbon capture storage technologies will be meters. required in the UK and elsewhere. Given the competition for scarce industry skills globally, it makes sense for Scotland to 3.30 focus on its current industry strengths, and its geological The actions needed to minimise these risks will be covered in assets, to develop carbon capture and storage technologies, the renewable energy and energy efficiency action plans and and thereby support the ongoing use of fossil-fuelled power the carbon capture and storage route map. stations, rather than nuclear. 3.27 NATIONAL CONVERSATION The First Minister outlined actions for developing carbon 3.31 capture and storage technologies on 1 May 2009, including: A key issue for the Scottish Government is the lack of legislative powers in Scotland with the main responsibilities Z Proposals for UK and EU carbon capture and storage for energy policy and regulation reserved to Westminster. demonstration projects Scotland is emerging as a key player in energy policy at both Z Research funding UK and EU levels and having greater regulatory powers would Z A Scottish consortium of Government, business and ensure that electricity policy and regulations would be better academics exploring the practicalities and costs of aligned to ensure delivery of our statutory climate change delivering carbon capture and storage in Scotland. targets and maximising Scotland’s economic potential in renewable energy and carbon capture and storage. 3.28 The Scottish Government will bring forward a carbon capture and storage route map later in 2009 which will set out the work necessary to ensure that all fossil-fuel generation operates with carbon capture and storage technology by 2030. 18 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 3: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY TABLE 3: : DELIVERY PLAN FOR THE TRADED SECTOR AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY (for Aviation see Transport) Action Required measures (34% Scottish target, Measure 42% Scottish target or Transformational measure) Progress What more do we need to do? ELECTRICITY AND REFINERIES (21.2 MtCO2e in 2006) EU Emissions 34% Scottish EU ETS is main policy lever for Current cap will deliver around 5 MtCO2 reduction in Scottish Trading Scheme target delivering traded sector reductions. emissions between 2006 and 2020. 42% Scottish EU ETS cap will decrease faster if EU Depends on outcome of Copenhagen negotiations in December target commits to a 30% reduction in 2009 – EU will commit to 30% if a global deal on emissions is emissions by 2020 agreed. Demand T Behaviour change to reduce wasted Energy Efficiency Action Plan being developed May require further marketing to incentivise action. reduction and 2020 electricity. (end 2009 – see Energy Pledge 7). energy efficiency “Smart” meters for all households by 2020. T Increased energy efficiency of Domestic efficiency measures funded by the UK-wide Carbon 2020 appliances. Emissions Reduction Target scheme. European appliance standards and labelling. Renewable T 50% of gross Scottish electricity On pathway to meet target. Will be largely delivered through Significant investment in infrastructure and grid connections for off-shore wind energy 2020 consumption to come from renewable hydro and onshore wind. required – see Energy Pledge 6. Regular dialogue to put pressure on UK sources by 2020 Currently total capacity of renewables schemes either Government and regulators to look more strategically at improving the grid. operating or with planning permission is 5.5 GW. Around another 3 GW of installed renewables capacity needed. Ensure Green Energy Centre drives co-operative research and development into key green technologies across Europe and brings together the best of energy Saltire Prize and establishment of Scottish European Green research institutes from across Scotland. Energy Centre – see Energy Pledge 10. T Delivery of significant wave and tidal Renewables Action Plan (autumn 2009 – see Energy Pledge 1) Substantial investment in marine and tidal energy and infrastructure – see 2030 energy will identify actions and resources required to deliver. Energy Pledge 6. FREDS Marine Energy Group has commissioned a study looking at the investment needed in infrastructure and supply chain for marine energy – findings will enable SG, SE, HIE and SDI to take strategic decisions on Potential economic opportunity. where investment should be focused. Carbon Capture T Working Scottish demonstration plant Ensure demonstration plant is delivered to “prove” CCS by working with the UK and Storage 2015 Fully operational, commercial CCS See Energy Pledge 5 – govt and other stakeholders to move into demonstration and then operational 2020 plant Three UK sites entered for UK and EU competition. phases of CCS. 2030 All remaining fossil fuel plants use CCS Thermal Guidance on carbon capture ready/CCS in preparation. Scottish report on CCS opportunities has been published. CCS route map forthcoming. INDUSTRY (8.4 MTCO2E IN 2006) Energy efficiency 34% Scottish Nearly all energy efficiency savings Carbon Reduction Commitment Work with UK Government to ensure that the CRC cap is sufficiently tight to and Combined target that have net costs less than £40/tCO2 deliver real emissions reductions. Make funds available to ensure that all public Heat and Power plus some CHP sector buildings are brought up to standards required, rather than pay “fines”. 19 20 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 4: HEAT DEMAND AND SUPPLY (and small-scale electricity production) BACKGROUND 4.5 CHAPTER 4: 4.1 One of the challenges of delivering renewable heat energy is HEAT DEMAND AND In Scotland, heat energy demand produces emissions of about 9 MtCO2e (excluding emissions from electricity), which works the difficulty in transporting it. Typically in the UK heat is generated on individual premises, though in other European SUPPLY (and small-scale out at 1.8 tonnes of CO2e per person each year. In homes and businesses, this heat demand arises predominantly from countries local and district heat networks are common. While some forms of renewable heat generation are suitable electricity production) water and space heating. at the individual household level, others work most effectively at community scales. To capture the benefit of such 4.2 technologies therefore also requires cultural changes within Reducing emissions related to heat energy is crucial to the local communities and businesses. The planning system has reductions required in the non-traded sector to 2020 and an important role in facilitating more decentralised patterns beyond. It requires this sector to be “de-carbonised” by 2050 of energy generation and supply. The National Planning Framework requires local authorities to take account of the KEY MESSAGES with significant progress towards that by 2030. potential for developing heat networks when preparing • Emissions from housing and non-domestic 4.3 development plans and considering major development buildings have to be reduced in 2020 by 3.9 Energy policy in the heat sector is largely devolved. However, proposals. MtCO2e (34% Scottish target) or by 4.3 MtCO2e a number of the key delivery mechanisms, including supplier (42% Scottish target) against 2006 levels. obligations such as the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target and 4.6 the Community Energy Savings Programme (see Chapter 2) Commercial buildings, including shops, hotels and offices, • Improved energy efficiency and reduction in are responsible for a significant proportion of Scotland's energy demand through behavioural change will and the forthcoming Renewable Heat Incentive, operate on either a GB or UK basis. carbon emissions. Improving the energy efficiency of be crucial to deliver progress in the short term. commercial buildings, both existing and new, therefore needs • It is essential to deliver Transformational 4.4 action alongside improvements to domestic properties. Outcome 2: Analysis suggests that there are many low or zero cost Changes to existing properties can include improving thermal opportunities to reduce emissions rapidly in the short and performance through replacement of windows and reducing A largely de-carbonised heat sector by 2050 with medium term. For example, the up-front costs of measures energy use through more effective insulation and more significant progress by 2030 through a combination such as loft and cavity wall insulation are quickly paid back efficient lighting and heating systems. In addition to of reduced demand and energy efficiency, together through reduced fuel bills. However, other measures, such as refurbishment options, the replacement of obsolete with a massive increase in the use of renewable solid wall insulation are much more expensive and disruptive commercial buildings provides important opportunities for or low-carbon heating. with longer term pay back. There are some real challenges in improving energy performance. • In the long term it will be necessary to replace the the longer term, particularly in replacing the heating provision natural gas grid network with low carbon 4.7 derived from the natural gas grid network and household alternatives, in some cases operating through Energy intensive businesses have a strong profit motive to use boilers. local heat networks. energy efficiently and multiple costs imposed by government Photo: Forestry Commission Scotland • It will be essential for there to be a step change in through economic instruments (taxation, emissions trading the levels of renewable and low-carbon heat to schemes) encourage them to use energy more effectively. 2020. However, this is not the case for many non energy intensive or smaller businesses. The Carbon Reduction Commitment will • There will be a need to mitigate the cost impacts provide larger commercial businesses and public sector of investment in carbon reduction on fuel poverty. organisations with an additional incentive to reduce heating • The delivery of the relevant Energy Pledges is demand or use lower carbon heat and the planning system and essential (see Chapter 2). building standards have a role in facilitating improved energy efficiency in refurbished and new commercial properties. 4.8 21 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 4: HEAT DEMAND AND SUPPLY (and small-scale electricity production) Actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from heating MEETING SCOTLAND’S 2020 TARGETS 4.14 needs are: 4.11 The measures and actions required to deliver the 2020 targets Z Reduction in energy demand, either by improving boiler As set out in Table 1, emissions from housing and non-domestic are summarised in Table 4 at the end of this chapter and are efficiency or improving insulation, fabric or controls in buildings have to be reduced in 2020 by 3.9 MtCO2e considered more fully below. buildings (34% Scottish target) or 4.3 MtCO2e (42% Scottish target) from 2006 levels. Around three-quarters of savings for the TRANSFORMATIONAL OUTCOME 2: Z Changes in lifestyle, resulting in lower demand for 34% Scottish target could be delivered from housing. DE-CARBONISING THE HEAT SECTOR heating/cooling 4.15 Z Use of lower carbon sources to generate heat energy including waste industrial heat and other forms of 4.12 The transformational outcome for the heat sector is: combined heat and power. Measures in the Heat sector which will contribute to the A largely de-carbonised heat sector by 2050 with significant delivery of the 34% Scottish target in 2020 include: progress by 2030 through a combination of reduced demand

4.9 Z All current energy efficiency measures to deliver expected and energy efficiency, together with a massive increase in the A distinction can be drawn between households and businesses savings use of renewable or low-carbon heating. connected to the natural gas grid network and the 30-35% Z Additional measures to encourage industrial and business that remain off-gas grid. The latter group are obvious energy efficiency and productivity which cost less than 4.16 candidates for earlier decarbonisation, on cost effectiveness £40/tCO2e Ultimately, meeting Scotland’s 2050 target will require heating grounds, since they are likely to be using relatively carbon in Scotland to be almost zero carbon by that time. Z A step change in insulation of domestic buildings, including All cost-effective energy efficiency measures will need to have intensive, expensive fuels such as heating oil or solid fuels. the insulation of all suitable cavity walls in Scotland and The former already use a low carbon fuel, natural gas, for been undertaken, including some that are not cost effective at enhancement of all loft insulation where it is practical to current world energy prices. Achieving this outcome will their heating needs, with relatively low costs; unless prices do so spike, and in the absence of other incentives, we might expect require the replacement of the natural gas network with these to be the last to convert to low carbon fuels. Z Delivering the proposed 11% renewable heat target by 2020 low-carbon heat. Significant progress on low carbon heat through the forthcoming Renewable Heat Incentive needs to be made by 2030 and, as with the 2020 target,

4.10 Z Introduction of increasingly tight building regulations, leading priority areas might include the use of heat pumps, biomass Existing low-carbon technologies can reduce dependence on to low-carbon requirements for all new houses from 2017. and solar water heating in off-grid households and imported fuels and reduce the ongoing costs of meeting businesses and local heat networks in new housing heating needs. Examples include: 4.13 developments. Z Ground, air & water source heat pumps (essentially reverse Emerging results from new Scottish Government analytical tools based on Scottish data indicate that the scale of the 4.17 refrigerators) challenge (both in terms of size of savings from identified It is important to start to lay the groundwork now to Z Dedicated biomass boilers measures and their cost) for reducing domestic emissions in de-carbonise the heat sector by 2050. That will mean Z Solar thermal water heating Scotland to contribute to the delivery of either the 34% or 42% incentivising individuals and businesses to install heating Z Biogas in place of natural gas in some instances. target may be greater than that envisaged by the Committee on technologies that might currently cost more than £40/tCO2e, Climate Change. Work is ongoing to refine our understanding but which are a stepping stone to the wider use of low-carbon of the carbon impacts of the key energy efficiency measures heat sources. required and to ascertain their cost-effectiveness in comparison to other measures. 22 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 4: HEAT DEMAND AND SUPPLY (and small-scale electricity production) THE MAIN DELIVERY MECHANISMS ENERGY EFFICIENCY 4.25 4.18 4.22 Enhanced insulation will include much greater provision of The main delivery mechanisms to achieve the 2020 targets More effective energy management and installation of insulation in cavity walls and lofts, plus a step change in the and de-carbonise the heat sector in the longer term are: efficiency measures have the potential to reduce greenhouse number of homes receiving more expensive measures such gas emissions most rapidly and at zero or near zero net cost. as solid wall insulation. However, the constraints on Z Managing demand/changing behaviour Non-domestic potential is predominantly associated with delivering all these technical measures are likely to be Z Energy efficiency; and associated with: more effective energy management and the use of efficient Z Low carbon heat. heating and cooling equipment, lighting and controls. Z Adapting the existing skills and accreditation of existing Domestic potential is predominantly associated with more installers to manage new technologies; Managing demand/changing behaviour effective insulation in housing, with some additional savings Z Individual behavioural barriers, hindering the installation of 4.19 coming from early replacement of inefficient boilers. more intrusive technologies and measures, such as solid For a start, greater efforts will be made to encourage wall insulation; behavioural change - actions such as turning down the home 4.23 Z The readiness of the UK Government to increase the heating thermostat, or washing clothes in cooler water. In Emissions reductions from energy management in the non- obligations placed on energy companies to the level needed Scotland, the potential emissions reductions associated with domestic sector will result from technical improvements in to ensure that potentially intrusive measures such as solid such behavioural change is nearly 0.3 MtCO2e by 2020. UK energy use by businesses. The realistic potential for these wall insulation are installed on a significant scale. households have on average increased the temperatures in emissions reductions is estimated to be 0.4 MtCO2e by 2020 in their house from 13°C (1970) to 18°C (2006), although the Scotland. A key driver for these savings will be the Carbon 4.26 energy consequences of this have been partially offset by Reduction Commitment which will cap and reduce emissions A key element of the strategy to reduce wasteful use of heat rising ambient air temperatures. from larger commercial businesses and the public sector in energy is through more effective building standards. These the UK through until 2020, either through the increased use of have already driven steep reductions in energy demand, and 4.20 low carbon fuels or the more efficient use of heat and electrical emissions, from households, estimated at over 60% between Delivery of changes in behaviour cannot be achieved by the energy in buildings. To deliver these savings, it is assumed houses built in 1990 and houses built today. Further tightening Government alone. The Energy Saving Scotland advice that the carbon price will be around £40/tCO2e in 2020 and act of these standards are expected over the next eight years, network is one source of help. A broader coalition of civil as a sufficient incentive for behaviour change in this sector. with the outcome that by 2020 all new houses built in Scotland society and local communities, in part encouraged by the will be low carbon. This is expected to deliver relative emissions Climate Challenge Fund16, will need to make such behavioural 4.24 reductions of nearly 0.2 MtCO2e by 2020 compared with not adjustments socially acceptable. In the domestic sector, achieving the heat sector’s introducing these new standards. contribution to the 34% Scottish target will depend to a 4.21 significant extent on existing policy tools, such as the Carbon Social norms do not, at present, encourage effective Emissions Reduction Target and on the successful delivery of management of heat energy in homes or offices, though an the proposals outlined in recent consultations by the UK increasing number of businesses will be subject to schemes Government, in particular the scope and ambition of future such as the forthcoming Carbon Reduction Commitment. supplier obligations such as the Community Energy Saving Programme and the Renewable Heat Incentive. These programmes act as a bridge from current policies focusing on low cost basic insulation measures towards more expensive whole-house approaches which deliver large reductions in emissions. The Scottish Government is bringing forward an ambitious area based Home Insulation Scheme to increase the uptake of energy efficiency measures such as loft and cavity wall insulation. 16 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/SustainableDevelopment/funding/ ClimateChallengeFund 23 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 4: HEAT DEMAND AND SUPPLY (and small-scale electricity production) Low carbon heat 4.30 NATIONAL CONVERSATION

4.27 The Renewable Heat Action plan will seek to provide the 4.32 Achieving the Scottish Government’s target of 11% renewable overarching framework; providing a focus on the actions A key issue for the Scottish Government is the lack of heat (which includes low carbon heat such as heat pumps) to needed, and by when, to deliver the necessary changes. legislative powers in Scotland with the main responsibilities 2020 will be critical to achieving the statutory targets set in for energy policy and regulation reserved to Westminster. the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill. We need to exploit the Barriers and Risks Having greater regulatory powers would ensure that energy most cost effective opportunities to develop renewable heat in 4.31 policy and regulations would be better aligned to ensure areas such as off-gas-grid domestic properties and the small The main risks to delivery of the emissions reductions delivery of Scotland’s statutory climate change targets and business sector, and in the use of local heat networks in new identified are: maximising Scotland’s economic potential in renewable energy. housing developments. The UK Government’s proposed Z Failure of UK Government supplier obligation policies to Renewable Heat Incentive will provide financial incentives to deliver sufficient savings in existing domestic households 4.33 encourage this. With an estimated 80% of installed boilers Z Insufficient carbon price to incentivise efficiency measures Regarding energy efficiency, the Scottish Government has needing to be replaced by 2020, Scotland has a huge and energy management in businesses before 2020 recently called upon the UK Government to: opportunity to influence the future direction of the heat Z Missing opportunities associated with mapping and Z legislate for a pro-rata level of energy efficiency supplier market. The forthcoming Renewable Heat Action Plan due delivering waste industrial heat and community scale obligation activity in Scotland; later in 2009 will develop these issues further. combined heat and power to business and domestic sectors Z give powers to the Scottish Government to enable it to

4.28 Z Missing opportunities and removing barriers to the direct and co-ordinate this activity through a co-ordinating Industrial requirements for heat are largely captured within development of local heat networks in appropriate locations body of its choice; the scope of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Their Z Failing to overcome household resistance to using non- Z recognise the variation in Scotland’s climate and housing emissions reductions will be driven by the overall EU “traded conventional low carbon technologies, such as heat pumps, types; sector” trajectory for reducing emissions and facilitated by the solar thermal and biomass boilers Z provide greater level of incentive for loft top-up. energy efficiency measures being directed at this sector. Z Failure to overcome “rebound effect” where positive However, waste heat from these industrial processes is not behavioural change to more energy efficient practices lasts 4.34 currently used effectively. Opportunities to use this heat for only a short time This should help to guarantee that new energy efficiency resource need to be identified, quantified and costed in investment includes Scotland’s rural and island communities Scotland, and the proposed Energy Efficiency Action Plan will Z Failure to deliver low carbon housing through enhanced building regulations or failure to enforce new building and ensure the accurate, disaggregated and regular reporting consider this aspect. of energy efficiency related activity in Scotland. standards

4.29 Z Failure to overcome tension between the goals of reducing 4.35 Changing social attitudes to low carbon heat technologies is emissions and tackling fuel poverty. Increasing energy This will also allow the Scottish Government to use and build more challenging. The conditions need to be created in which prices to pay for emission reducing investment will tend to upon the mechanisms that it has put in place (Energy Saving the choice by a householder or small business to invest in a increase fuel poverty and have a disproportionate effect on Scotland advice network) that deliver the Energy Assistance low carbon heating source, such as solar thermal, ground or those least able to afford it. Package and Home Insulation Scheme to more effectively air source heat pumps, or biomass boilers, is no more unusual deliver any future energy efficiency obligation schemes. than purchasing a new gas or oil boiler. This requires a clear These risks will be addressed by the forthcoming energy framework in which suppliers can meet demand, installers efficiency and renewable heat action plans as well as ongoing are properly trained and accredited, householders know the work on Building Standards. cost implications and benefits of the low carbon heat source, and consideration is given to the air quality implications of the installation of biomass boilers, particularly in urban areas where there may already be air quality concerns. 24 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 4: HEAT DEMAND AND SUPPLY (and small-scale electricity production) TABLE 4: : DELIVERY PLAN FOR THE HEAT SECTOR – DOMESTIC BUILDINGS Action Required measures (34% Scottish target, Measure 42% Scottish target or Transformational measure) Progress What more do we need to do? DOMESTIC BUILDINGS (7.3 MtCO2e in 2006) Insulation and 34% Scottish High uptake of low cost insulation Home Insulation Scheme and Energy Assistance Package will Continue to develop current Scottish Government schemes. Seek to ensure heat efficiency target measures (loft and cavity wall), plus assist in driving take-up of measures under the UK appropriate design of future UK Government supplier obligations. 10% of potential for solid wall Government CERT scheme. Community Energy Saving insulation. Some replacement of Programme will increase level of solid wall insulation. inefficient boilers. 42% Scottish As above, but 40% solid wall insulation. Not in current policy framework. Significant expansion of whole house approach of the kind to be piloted under target CESP. Behaviour 34% Scottish Turning down thermostats by 1 Energy Efficiency Action Plan being developed (end 2009 – see Further marketing to incentivise action, followed, if necessary, by dynamic target degree. Switching off Energy Pledge 7). pricing. lights/appliances. Energy efficiency advice to consumers through Energy Saving Scotland advice network. Renewable heat 34% Scottish 11% renewable heat target. Renewable Heat Action Plan (in 2009 – see Energy Pledge 2). target Renewable Heat Incentive (planned for April 2011). T New housing connected to heat Will not be achieved under current policy framework. National Planning Framework requires local authorities to take account of the 2020 networks, heated by biomass or using New building regulations will reduce demand for heat in new potential for new heat networks in development plans. low carbon heat, including buildings – may limit feasibility of heat networks. renewables. 2030 All off-grid properties using low carbon heat, including renewables. 2050 De-carbonised heat supply. District heating will have high infrastructure costs. Low carbon new 34% Scottish Low carbon building regulations. Proposed 2010 building standards would deliver around 70% Agree future standards for very low carbon buildings, and start now to ensure housing target All new homes low carbon by 2016/17 reduction on 1990 levels. that every publicly funded home constructed anticipates those standards. with cost-effective delivery of residual Levels recommended in Sullivan report for 2013 could produce energy needs. up to 80% reductions compared with 1990. Net zero carbon homes by 2016/17 if practical. Energy Performance Certificates. EPCs already required for new builds and sale/let. 25 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 4: HEAT DEMAND AND SUPPLY (and small-scale electricity production) TABLE 5: : DELIVERY PLAN FOR THE HEAT SECTOR – NON-DOMESTIC BUILDINGS Action Required measures (34% Scottish target, Measure 42% Scottish target or Transformational measure) Progress What more do we need to do? NON-DOMESTIC BUILDINGS (2.1 MtCO2e in 2006) Insulation and 34% Scottish Nearly all energy efficiency/ Carbon Reduction Commitment. heat efficiency target management savings costing less than £40/tCO2. Small amounts of Energy efficiency advice to SMEs. microgeneration/ CHP. Small business loans. Carbon Trust advice and support to large and energy-intensive businesses. Climate Change (Scotland) Bill proposes mandatory Mandatory upgrading of existing non-domestic buildings likely to be needed. assessment of energy performance in existing non-domestic buildings. EPCs already required for sale/rental and public buildings. 42% Scottish As above, but more microgeneration/ Current policy framework not sufficient to deliver. More compulsion to achieve higher savings? target CHP. Scottish Business Rates Exemption for microgeneration. 34% Scottish 11% renewable heat target. Renewable Heat Action Plan (in 2009 – see Energy Pledge 2). Renewable heat target Scottish Biomass Heat Scheme (£3.3m 2009-10 and 2010-11). Extend Scottish Biomass Heat Scheme until Renewable Heat Incentive is fully operational. Renewable Heat Incentive (planned for April 2011). 34% Scottish All new non-domestic buildings very Proposed 2010 building standards would deliver around 70% Agree future standards for very low carbon buildings, and anticipate those Low carbon target low carbon by 2016/17 with reduction on 1990 levels. Levels recommended in Sullivan standards in all publicly supported buildings procured from 2010. new buildings cost-effective delivery of residual report for 2013 could produce 80% reductions. energy needs. EPCs already required for new buildings. 26 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 4: HEAT DEMAND AND SUPPLY (and small-scale electricity production) 27 28 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR BACKGROUND CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR 5.1 Emissions from the transport sector were 14.5 MtCO2e in 2006, excluding aviation but including shipping and off-road (e.g. agricultural) vehicles. Recent years have seen rising demand in the transport sector with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. 5.2 KEY MESSAGES Emissions by travel mode between 1990 and 2006 are set out in Figure 8. The largest component is road transport, with • Transport emissions in Scotland (excluding aviation) were 14.5 MtCO2e in 2006. 10.5 MtCO2e in 2006, up from 9.2 MtCO2e in 1990. Scotland’s Emissions need to be reduced in 2020 by 3.3 MtCO2e (34% Scottish target) or by aviation emissions17 totalled 2.0 MtCO2e in 2006, almost

4.6 MtCO2e (42% Scottish target) against 2006 levels. double the emissions in 1990, and 3% of total net Scottish • It is essential to deliver Transformational Outcome 3: emissions. Some 43% of these emissions came from flights within the UK. Almost complete decarbonisation of road transport by 2050 with significant progress by 2030 through wholesale adoption of electric cars and vans, and significant decarbonisation of rail by 2050. FIGURE 8: TRANSPORT EMISSIONS FROM 1900 TO 2006, BY MODE • There is a need for additional planning and demand management measures through to 2020 to reduce the need for travel and the carbon intensity of travel; and to 18 maximise active travel (e.g. walking and cycling). 16 • Improved vehicle technologies, primarily the shift to hybrid and electric vehicles, will 14 provide substantial emissions reductions. 12 • An electric charging infrastructure to support the use of plug-in hybrid and electric MtCO2e vehicles across Scotland will need to be planned and developed. 10 • Action in the traded sector will be needed to offset any growth in emissions from 8 aviation (which will be included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012). 6 • A number of key policy levers for the transport sector sit at the UK or EU level. 4 Scotland has powers over measures such as: 2 – infrastructure and local speed limits 0 – Smarter Measures including adoption of more fuel efficient “eco-“driving; 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 – demand management measures including road space reallocation – prioritising integrated public transport and maximising active travel Road Rail Off-road Photo: Scottish Government Shipping Aviation Total – influencing the location of new development through the planning system. • Emissions from transport can be expected to decrease significantly but only in the medium term. 17 Domestic and international aviation emissions are computed without an • The delivery of the relevant Energy Pledges is essential (see Chapter 2). adjustment for radiative forcing – this is in line with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. 29 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR

5.3 Z Efficient driving: through improved driving behaviour, TRANSFORMATIONAL OUTCOME 3: Current forecasts of transport demand suggest continued e.g. eco-driving, car sharing or lower speed limits DE-CARBONISING THE TRANSPORT SECTOR growth until 202018. Forecasts also suggest an increase in UK Z Sustainable biofuels 5.11 aviation emissions of over 50% between 2005 and 205019. The transformational outcome for the transport sector is: Z Improved energy efficiency of new ships. Almost complete decarbonisation of road transport by 2050 5.4 5.7 with significant progress by 2030 through wholesale adoption Emissions reductions in the transport sector can be achieved of electric cars and vans, and significant decarbonisation of Measures in the transport sector which will contribute to the in a number of ways, including: rail by 2050. delivery of the 42% Scottish target in 2020 will, in addition, Z Reduction in demand for travel; and/or include: Z Reduction in the carbon intensity within each mode of Z More widespread uptake of improved vehicle efficiency in 5.12 transport; and/or vans and HGVs The increasing adoption of electric vehicles will in turn Z A shift from more carbon intensive to less carbon intensive demand the planning and development of an electric charging Z More widespread adoption of eco-driving infrastructure across Scotland. The move to electric cars modes of transport. Z Speed limit reductions on motorways. together with other measures is expected to make a 50% reduction in road and rail transport emissions feasible by MEETING SCOTLAND’S 2020 TARGETS 5.8 2030. This will also have a significant positive impact on air

5.5 Public sector vehicle procurement policies will be key in quality. A Scottish Government consultation on low carbon As set out in Table 1 in Chapter 2, emissions from transport leading by example in making the transfer from conventional vehicles will take place over summer 2009. (excluding aviation, for which see below) have to be reduced in to hybrid and electric cars and priming the demand for 2020 by 3.3 MtCO2e (34% Scottish target) or by 4.6 MtCO2e electric charging infrastructure. 5.13 (42% Scottish target) against 2006 levels. Other important measures may include the development of 5.9 second and third generation biofuels or appropriate supplies

5.6 Aviation emissions to 2020 will become part of the EU of hydrogen fuels derived from low carbon sources. All Measures in the transport sector which will contribute to the Emissions Trading Scheme. If aviation emissions continue to transport measures are expected to make a 90% reduction in delivery of the 34% Scottish target in 2020 include: grow as predicted, the increase will be compensated by a land transport emissions feasible by 2050. Z Improvements in energy efficiency of petrol and diesel reduction in emissions elsewhere in the EU traded sector vehicles, and increasing uptake of hybrid and electric (whose total emissions are capped). 5.14 engines with supporting infrastructure There is also potential to reduce shipping emissions, but there 5.10 are currently few incentives to do so. While the sector has made Z Smarter Measures including reduced travel and modal shift The measures and actions required to deliver the 2020 targets long term efficiency improvements and some technological to less carbon-intensive modes of transport, e.g. public are summarised in Table 6 at the end of this chapter and are advances, investment in shipping fleets inevitably takes time, transport and active travel (e.g. walking and cycling) considered more fully below. with the result that early improvement in the emissions Z Demand management including road space reallocation intensity of shipping will require additional interventions. Z Changes to the pattern of development to reduce the need to travel 5.15 A key message is that emissions from transport can be expected to decrease significantly but only in the medium term. The measures and actions required to deliver the 18 Note that the CCC’s reference projection for road transport in Scotland shows a transformational outcome are summarised in Table 6 at the decrease due to the methodology used. This is described in more detail in the Technical Annex accompanying this Plan. end of this chapter and are considered more fully below. 19 Source: Committee on Climate Change. 30 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR MAIN DELIVERY MECHANISMS 5.18 5.21

5.16 Current rates of new technology uptake are not sufficient to The expected increase in the use of electricity for transport will The main delivery mechanisms to achieve the 2020 targets force substantial emissions reductions from the road transport need to be met by increased capacity of the grid. Full uptake and to de-carbonise the road and rail sector by 2050 are: sector. New mandatory EU targets will require manufacturers of electric cars is estimated to require an additional 15% to meet average carbon intensity targets for new cars sold of (or 5 TWh per year) of electrical energy relative to 2020 Z Road and rail transport: Technologies less than 95 gCO2/km by 2020. The UK has further to go than projections. However, charging vehicles outside the hours of Z Road and rail transport: Alternative fuels other EU countries. In 2006, the UK’s new cars had an average peak electricity use, coupled with smart grids21, could help to Z Road and rail transport: Demand management and carbon intensity of 167 gCO2/km, higher than EU average mitigate against the intermittency of renewable energy sources. behaviour change emissions of 160 gCO2/km (largely because of a high proportion Z Aviation; and of large cars)20. 5.22 Although emissions from diesel powered trains are relatively Z Shipping. 5.19 small (0.3 MtCO2e in 2006) there is the potential to reduce This process of technology improvement will be driven by emissions substantially through electrification. With the Road and rail transport: Technologies international and EU markets and emissions requirements; current electricity mix, electric trains produce around 30%

5.17 Scotland can play its part by facilitating and supporting these fewer emissions than diesel engines per passenger-kilometre22. Major uptake of new car and van technologies is likely to be technology shifts through a number of mechanisms. A key As the electricity sector de-carbonises, the gains from required to significantly reduce transport emissions: the milestone will be ensuring the necessary infrastructure and electrification will increase. Electrification of the rail network power to deliver such change rests with the European Union. electricity generation capacity to charge electric and plug-in has been progressing for many years, The electrified network Improved road vehicle technologies, some pre, and others hybrid vehicles is available in Scotland. currently represents 49% of passenger journeys; under post, 2020 include: current Scottish Government action 64% of journeys will be on Z Non-engine measures such as improved aerodynamics, 5.20 electric trains by 2020, with aspirations to deliver further weight reduction, gear shift indicators and low rolling The Committee on Climate Change has modelled potential UK electrification beyond 2020. resistance tyres uptake rates for new vehicle technology for both the 34% and Z Improved engine efficiencies in conventional petrol and 42% Scottish targets, compared with a “business as usual” 5.23 diesel vehicles scenario. At the same time, developments in rolling stock technology Z Under business as usual, over 99% of new cars and 100% of will continue, with more efficient vehicles and technologies Z Increased use of hybrid engine technologies in petrol and new vans and HGVs use conventional or advanced petrol coming forward. There have recently been successful trials of diesel vehicles, which capture and use the energy and diesel engines in 2020 hybrid diesel and battery powered trains which delivered an dissipated in deceleration and braking energy saving of approximately 20% per journey. If proven, Z Adoption of plug-in hybrids (which switch between using Z In a 34% Scottish target, only 3% of new cars use this type these technologies will influence how the Scottish electricity and petrol/diesel depending on the type of of engine, with around three-quarters using stop-start, Government specifies future rolling stock. driving) and/or fully electric vehicles micro hybrid or hybrid engines, and over 20% plug-in hybrid or fully electric Z Much further in the future, hydrogen fuel cell technology, using hydrogen produced by renewable sources of energy. Z In a 42% Scottish target, similar progress is needed in vans, with almost two-thirds stop-start, micro hybrid or hybrid engines, and more than 20% plug-in hybrid or fully electric. Z In both the 34% and 42% Scottish target, around half of new HGVs use stop-start or micro hybrid engines. 20 Source: King Review. 21 A term describing a disparate set of goals associated with the modernisation of the electricity transmission and distribution networks. 22 Committee on Climate Change. 31 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR Road and rail transport: Alternative fuels Road and rail transport: Demand management and Aviation 5.24 behaviour change 5.31 Heavy vehicles such as HGVs and buses require a higher 5.27 Aviation will be included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme intensity of energy than batteries can currently provide. Major Annual distances (vehicle-km) travelled by cars have from 2012. The number of allowances to the aviation industry reductions in carbon emissions cannot be achieved through increased almost constantly since 1975, when statistics were will initially be capped at 97% of average emissions between new vehicle technologies alone; alternative fuels must play a first available23; this increase is expected to continue24. In the 2004 and 2006, reducing to 95% from 2013. key role. short term, progress in reducing emissions will entail creating viable alternatives as a means of reducing the need for carbon 5.32 5.25 intensive travel. Under this scheme, if emissions increase above the level of Biofuels are one part of this solution, since sustainable allowances agreed by EU Member States there must be sources of biofuels have low net carbon emissions. 5.28 compensatory emissions reductions in other parts of the Technologies for converting many different types of biomass Demand management measures, many with concurrent traded sector. Scottish aviation emissions reported in the net into fuels for internal combustion engines are well benefits to health and wellbeing, include: Scottish emissions account are fixed by the number of established. However, concerns about the overall impacts of Z Road space reallocation with priority to less carbon- allowances or auctioning rights allocated to Scotland through existing biofuel production, including on food production, intensive modes of transport, e.g. public transport and to 2020. suggest that a cautious approach is appropriate. Following the active travel Committee on Climate Change position, the Scottish 5.33 Z Parking strategies which incentivise low carbon vehicles Government assumes that biofuels will make up no more than Opportunities to reduce actual emissions from aviation lie in 10% of transport fuel by volume (8% by energy) by 2020. Z Choices about the location of new development to reduce the following broad areas: technological improvements, Second and third generation biofuels may well play an the need to travel or to reduce the carbon intensity of travel including to engines, aircraft design and fuel type; operational important role in future, but require more research and Z Efficient driving: through. eco-driving or lower speed limits. improvement, including the different routing of services or analysis alongside decisions about the best use of land increased passenger loading of aircraft; and behavioural resources around the globe. 5.29 change, including modal shift by users to alternative forms of Current policies for addressing demand include the “Smarter travel. The Scottish Government has little influence over these

5.26 Choices, Smarter Places” pilot of investment in infrastructure factors. Hydrogen fuels, if produced from renewable sources, can offer and sustainable travel initiatives in seven demonstration an alternative to electricity as a fuel for all types of vehicles. communities. The findings from this pilot will be transferable 5.34 Whilst already feasible for niche applications, hydrogen across locations in Scotland and, if successful, will help Research shows that the introduction of High Speed Rail powered vehicles are not currently available on the mass contribute to the Government’s long-term objectives. services between city locations served by aviation links can market and are generally viewed as a longer term technology achieve significant modal shift from air to rail. High Speed option. Challenges to the development of hydrogen vehicles 5.30 Rail achieves this particularly well at distances of around 400 and the prospect of them becoming commercially viable In the medium to long term (2030 to 2050) the benefits of to 450 miles, the distance between Scotland's central belt and include: promoting increased levels of active travel are likely to be London. Currently, Britain’s busiest domestic air routes are Z The difficulties of storing hydrogen in an energy dense form predominantly better health, reduced congestion and less time from Edinburgh and Glasgow to London, which account for suitable for use in road vehicles wasted in travelling. Increases in vehicle efficiency are expected almost a half of Scotland’s total domestic aviation demand. to reduce the emissions reduction impact of these measures. High Speed Rail has the potential to significantly reduce Z The absence of a natural source of hydrogen means it has domestic air travel between the central belt and England, but to be specifically produced, which is a relatively energy the investment would be largely in England. intensive and expensive process; and Z The requirement for a new supply infrastructure. 23 Source: Main Transport Trends, Scottish Government (2008). 24 Note that the CCC’s reference projection for road transport in Scotland shows a decrease due to the methodology used. This is described in more detail in the Technical Annex accompanying this Plan. 32 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR Shipping Z Public sector investment in new vessels for subsidised 5.41 5.35 lifeline ferry services The actions needed to minimise these risks are being Scottish emissions from shipping are similar to those from its Z Supporting the development of emissions reduction targets addressed for Smarter Measures in the Smarter Choices aviation activities, at just over 2 MtCO2e in 2006. Just under in shipping operations. project being trialled across Scotland. Work is ongoing for half comes from domestic navigation, including from the oil, new vehicle technologies with the first consultation due in gas and fishing industries as well as ferries. However, 5.38 summer 2009. historically, reported annual emissions have fluctuated over As with aviation, shipping is an international industry, so it is time. This may reflect the fact that there is currently essential to develop an international approach for emissions NATIONAL CONVERSATION uncertainty in the inventory figures, with a revision to shipping reduction policy to be fully effective. The UK Government has 5.42 fuel use data having been identified as one of the top priorities already put a discussion paper to the International Maritime The majority of transport functions are already devolved to the in the development of an improvement programme for the Organisation (IMO) on emissions trading and the possibilities of Scottish Parliament. However, there are a number of areas Devolved Administrations’ inventory data. extending it to the shipping sector. The Scottish Government where legislative powers and fiscal autonomy could contribute will continue to work with the UK Government, the IMO and to meeting Scotland’s statutory climate change targets. These 5.36 other relevant international organisations to progress work. include: Shipping can be a very fuel efficient method of moving bulk Z Legislative powers to allow the Scottish Government to freight, and is generally the most low carbon method 5.39 reduce emissions through setting lower national speed currently available for long-distance movement of freight. By 2020, a 5-10% emissions reduction through technology limits However, though efficient compared to other modes, shipping measures and another 10% reduction through demand and Z Fiscal autonomy to tailor fuel and vehicle excise duties to does contribute to global carbon emissions, and movement of fleet management could reduce shipping emissions by better take account of Scottish circumstances which could goods by ships continues to grow. For these reasons, while 0.4 MtCO2e25. By 2050 shipping emissions might be halved. contribute to emissions reductions. the shipping sector has not been a major focus of emissions reduction policy or technology development so far, there BARRIERS AND RISKS remains a strong case to consider technology options for 5.40 reducing the carbon footprint of shipping over time. The need for additional interventions during the next two decades to make significant progress towards de-carbonising 5.37 the road transport sector by 2050 carries three key risks: Emissions reductions in shipping are possible through new Z The costs for the public and private sectors associated with technology, including improvements to current propulsion a major shift from fossil fuels to electric and hybrid vehicles systems, methods to improve movement through the water, and a wide range of new and improved fuels. Furthermore, as Z The possibility of failure of one or more of the key shipping companies spend a large proportion of their operating technologies in delivering expected emissions reductions costs on fuel, there is a significant incentive for them to invest and/or achieving market penetration in such measures to improve fuel economy. As the design life Z Lack of public support and participation in both Smarter of vessels is 15-30 years, these improvements will only make Measures and new vehicle technologies. reductions per tonne-kilometre possible over the medium to long term, but policy levers could accelerate earlier emissions reductions. Various policy levers are possible, though constrained by the international nature of shipping. Possible policy levers available include: 25 Potential efficiency savings are cautious estimates based upon a 2007 report, ‘Low carbon commercial shipping’ produced by AEA Energy and Environment for the Department for Transport. 33 B60850 Climate Change text 16.06:Layout 1 22/6/09 16:18 Page 34 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR TABLE 6: DELIVERY PLAN FOR THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Action Required measures (34% Scottish target, Measure 42% Scottish target or Transformational measure) Progress What more do we need to do? ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT (10.8 MtCO2e in 2006) Vehicle 34% world Average new car efficiency 95 gCO2/km in 2020. Regulation for average new car efficiencies expected to be Mandatory EU objectives – but also need to reduce UK efficiency Increased efficiency in vans and HGVs, through advanced technologies. agreed soon. average emissions relative to rest of EU. On a UK level, Most buses and coaches Euro IV standard by 2020. Framework for new van efficiencies under discussion. VED and other measures to stimulate uptake. Environmentally-focused bus service operators’ grant scheme being considered. 42% world More widespread uptake of engine technologies in vans and more non- Not in current policy framework. engine efficiency measures for HGVs. T Decarbonisation of cars and vans requires wholesale switch to electric Nascent industry working group on sustainable transport. Planning and development of battery charging vehicles during 2020s. Also see Energy Pledges 8 and 9. infrastructure. Eco driving 34% world Adopted by 10% of car and van drivers and all HGV drivers. Energy Saving Trust provide advice on eco-driving. Eco-driving assessed as part of practical driving test – Eco-driving now part of driving theory test. Freight Best DfT-led. Frequent reminders needed. Practice programme encourages efficient HGV driving. 42% world Adopted by 40% of car and van drivers and all HGV drivers. Not in current policy framework. Smarter 34% world Achievement of DfT’s "central case" estimate of savings through shift to Smarter Choices, Smarter Places. 7 demonstration towns LA-led national roll-out if pilot successful. Choices sustainable, off-peak and active travel. investing in infrastructure and various initiatives for sustainable travel. Evaluated in 2012. Demand 34% world Measures to encourage shift away from cars: e.g. pedestrianising roads. Some measures in place or being piloted: park & ride; Further work/national roll out, supported by financial management potential for bus hard shoulder running; integrated ticketing. measures if necessary. Biofuels 34% world Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation, 8% (energy) by 2020, in line with Gallagher review recommends maximum of 4-6% by energy Develop sustainable biofuels. CCC report. unless biofuels demonstrably sustainable. Speed limit 42% world Speed limit reduction to 60mph on motorways. No plans at present; in UK Government hands. National speed limits currently set by UK, but lower Eco driving delivering 2% reduction in energy use. local speed expectations to be set by local government. Rail 34% world Emissions reduction resulting from planned electrification (see text). Other abatement measures include further introduction of Continued delivery of the Sustainable Rail Programme. efficiencies1 Efficiencies in both electric and diesel rail through the Sustainable Rail regenerative braking in electric trains. Increased savings Programme2. with introduction of new rolling stock to 2020. SHIPPING (2.2 MtCO2e in 2006) Efficiency 34% world Improved energy efficiency of new vessels combined with demand and No action in hand. Support IMO work on extending emissions trading into fleet management. shipping sector. 42% world Faster improvements needed. Not in current policy framework. AVIATION (2.0 MtCO2e in 2006) EU Emissions 34% world Inclusion of aviation in EU Emissions Trading Scheme in order to drive Aviation to be included in the EU ETS from 2012. Promote high speed rail link from England. Trading reductions in demand/ increased rate of improvements in fleet Scheme efficiency/ improved operational efficiency. 1 Savings from electric trains are in the traded sector. 34 2 The Sustainable Rail Programme is led by the Sustainable Development Steering Group (SDSG), comprising senior government representatives (DfT and Transport Scotland) and chief executives from the rail industry. CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 5: TRANSPORT SECTOR 35 36 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 6: RURAL LAND USE BACKGROUND FIGURE 10: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CHAPTER 6: 6.1 THE RURAL LAND USE SECTOR, 1990 TO 2020 RURAL LAND USE The land use sector gives rise to emissions from livestock, agricultural soils, from liquid and solid animal wastes, and 20 from certain land use changes, for example, conversion of 15 grassland to cropping. However, it is also a sector with the KEY MESSAGES capacity to sequester carbon through the creation of woodlands 10 and in soils. Allowing for the effect of sequestration, the net • Emissions from agriculture and agricultural land use emissions from this sector were 2.6 MtCO2e/yr in 2006. 5 MtCO2 have to be reduced in 2020 from 2006 levels by Figure 9 shows the net sources and net sinks26 and the overall 0

0.7 MtCO2e (34% Scottish target) or 1.3 MtCO2e effect for 2006. Figure 10 sets out the historical emissions 90 9 19 1 9 19 2 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 19 96 9 19 7 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 20 2 20 20 03 04 0 20 5 19 19 0 20 6 (42% Scottish target). from these activities from 1990 to 2006 together with 0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 1 20 1 1 20 2 1 20 3 1 20 4 1 20 5 1 20 6 1 20 7 1 20 8 20 19 20 -5 • Emissions from agriculture and agricultural related projections out to 2020. land use form a significant proportion of Scotland’s -10 greenhouse gas emissions although some of the emissions figures are very uncertain. FIGURE 9: RURAL LAND USE NET SOURCES, NET SINKS, -15 AND OVERALL EMISSIONS, 2006 Rural land use (excluding woodland) • The key milestone for forestry is to increase planting Woodland rates to 10,000 -15,000 hectares/yr by 2015 and to 20 sustain that rate thereafter to maintain the levels of Net emissions /removals Net sources carbon sequestered annually in trees and soils; and to 15 support the rapidly growing wood-fuel industry. There 10 6.2 is likely to be a need for new models to finance the Rural land use activities are interrelated and interdependent. higher planting rates required. 5 Land currently in agricultural use, for example, provides the MtCO2 • It is essential to deliver Transformational Outcome 4: Net emissions/removals bulk of the land for new woodland planting. A great deal of A comprehensive approach to ensure that carbon 0 land in Scotland is used both for extensive grazing and (including the cost of carbon) is fully factored into sporting purposes. Much of Scotland’s land has significant -5 value for biodiversity and access to the outdoors and these strategic and local decisions about rural land use through appropriate protection for Scotland’s carbon public benefits may depend, in part, on agricultural and -10 woodland management. Rural land management also rich soils; minimising emissions from agricultural and other land use businesses; encouraging the Net sinks provides a significant potential for the development of -15 sequestration of carbon, for example through renewable energy for use by land based enterprises and rural woodland planting; and the use of natural resources communities. The Scottish Government recognised in 2008 to generate renewable energy. that a lack of evidence was hindering decision-making by both Photo: Forestry Commission Scotland government and stakeholders in relation to these choices and • A key challenge for this sector is to achieve these commissioned a Rural Land Use Study which is due to report targets while working within the global context of in late 2009. increasing demand for food. • Short term action will focus on improved advice and services to land managers and opportunities for grant 26 Some of the Rural Land Use activities both emit and absorb carbon, so “net aid through the Scotland Rural Development sources” means the sum of all activities that are net sources in the Inventory, Programme. and “net sinks” means the sum of all those that are net sinks 37 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 6: RURAL LAND USE

6.3 MEETING SCOTLAND’S 2020 TARGETS TRANSFORMATIONAL OUTCOME 4: All rural land uses are heavily dependent on soils, topography 6.6 A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO CARBON IN and water. These are the natural resources which need to be Projections to 2020 without additional interventions suggest RURAL LAND USE DECISIONS managed to minimise emissions and maximise sequestration. that emissions from agriculture operations alone will rise 6.11 Scottish soils are particularly important as a store of carbon, slightly, to about 7.3 MtCO2e/yr, driven largely by rising The transformational outcome for the rural land use sector is: a fact recognised by the Scottish Government’s recently nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from fertiliser use more than published Scottish Soil Framework27 which highlights A comprehensive approach to ensure that carbon (including offsetting the reduction in methane emissions from lower the cost of carbon) is fully factored into strategic and local protection and enhancement of soil organic matter and livestock numbers. reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from soils as two key decisions about rural land use through appropriate protection outcomes and priorities for action. Rural land use is also for Scotland’s carbon rich soils; minimising emissions from 6.7 agricultural and other land use businesses; encouraging the heavily dependent on the weather with the result that land As set out in Table 1 in Chapter 2, emissions from agriculture management must both contribute to the reduction in global sequestration of carbon, for example through woodland and land use have to be reduced in 2020 from 2006 levels by planting; and the use of natural resources to generate emissions and be in the forefront of adapting to anticipated 0.7 MtCO2e (34% Scottish target) or 1.3 MtCO2e (42% Scottish changes in the climate. renewable energy. target). Afforestation rates need to increase to 10,000 ha/yr by 2015 (34% Scottish target) or 15,000 ha/yr (42% Scottish 6.12 6.4 target). Afforestation to 2020 will deliver some carbon benefits The current estimates of emissions and sequestration from The measures and actions required to deliver this but the greatest levels of sequestration will be delivered in the transformational outcome are summarised in Table 7 at the land use management as set out in the Inventory provide only, period 2020 to 2050. at best, a very rough guide for both policy and practical land end of this chapter and are considered more fully below. use management. Some improved management practices 6.8 which reduce emissions will not currently result in changes to THE MAIN DELIVERY MECHANISMS Measures in the rural land use sector which will contribute to the figures given in the Inventory. Others such as improvements 6.13 the delivery of the 34% Scottish target in 2020 include: in the use of energy on farms or the development of In the short term, advice and support for land managers will Z Measures to improve livestock productivity be crucial in ensuring awareness of the carbon implications of renewable sources of energy are not attributable to the land use sector but will appear elsewhere in the Inventory. There Z Improved manure and slurry management their actions and of best practice to help reduce emissions. are also concerns about the accuracy of the significant Z Development of anaerobic digestion Appropriate mechanisms include advisory services such as emissions currently attributable to changes from cropping to those provided by the Scottish Agricultural College and Z Improved nutrient management systems grassland. Additionally, it should be noted that the carbon Government guidance on best practice. Z Protecting high carbon soils sequestered naturally in Scotland’s peatlands is not accounted for in the Inventory and will not, therefore, be taken Z Afforestation rates of 10,000 ha/yr. 6.14 into account in the net Scottish emissions account. The Scotland Rural Development Programme currently 6.9 provides funding for a wide range of different land

6.5 Measures in the rural land use sector which will contribute to management activities. This Programme will need to give None of these weaknesses with the current Inventory reduces the delivery of the 42% Scottish target in 2020 will, in addition, sufficient priority to those options which reduce emissions, the need for action to reduce emissions. They do place greater focus on: strengthen sequestration and encourage the development of priority on identifying and addressing improvements over time Z Much higher uptake of many of the above measures renewable energy. The broad potential rests in the shape of the and on considering supplementary means of demonstrating Common Agricultural Policy beyond 2014 to be determined by Z Afforestation rates of 15,000 ha/yr. progress in the meantime. the European Union. This might require new options, new ways of prioritising or setting payment levels, or new ways of 6.10 attaching minimum conditions for receipt of payment. The measures and actions required to deliver the 2020 targets are summarised in Table 7 at the end of this chapter and are considered more fully below. 27 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/05/20145602/0 38 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 6: RURAL LAND USE 6.15 6.18 6.21 Beyond 2020 there is likely to be further scope for reductions There are also opportunities for reducing other emissions Ministers have endorsed the Scottish Forestry Strategy target in emissions through the continued adoption of good practice related to agricultural activities, such as off-road transport to increase woodland cover to 25% of Scottish land area (by together with the potential impact of technological and and energy use. The fact that these are not recorded in the the second half of the century). This will require additional management innovations such as changes in animal genetics agriculture or land use sections of the Inventory should not be planting levels of up to 15,000 ha/yr, compared with the and feedstuffs. In addition, the scope for increased a deterrent. Farmers can also take action to develop current average rates of 4,000-5,000 ha/yr. Grant aid under sequestration and the development of renewable energy alternative sources of energy such anaerobic digestion using the Scotland Rural Development Programme has not proved a sources should continue over this time horizon. Consumers farm wastes. The full range of practical measures to reduce sufficient incentive, and therefore Forestry Commission may also be prepared to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions is set out in the Scottish Government’s Farming for Scotland is considering alternative approaches to increase emissions “embedded” in what they buy to consume. a Better Climate28 programme. afforestation rates. Agriculture Forestry Semi-natural habitats 6.16 6.19 6.22 Emissions from agricultural activities have a significant The potential for carbon savings in the forestry sector arises Semi-natural habitats make up around 50% of Scotland‘s unavoidable component as they arise from natural biological primarily29 from increasing the forest area (afforestation) and land-cover, with heathland and blanket bog as the predominant processes. A relatively high proportion of the unavoidable from replacement of fossil fuels with sustainable sources of types. Such habitats support a range of biodiversity and component is associated with livestock production and thus woodfuel (discussed in Chapter 4: Heat Demand and Supply). contribute to the economy through extensive agriculture, presents a challenge to society’s current demand for products Product substitution, such as replacing concrete or steel with game management and tourism, as well as locking carbon such as meat and dairy. The greatest impact on emissions timber, also has significant potential and will be important in within soil and plant matter. Management of these areas can within Scotland would be to decrease Scotland’s current the assessment of a more holistic, consumption based include controlled burning (muirburn) to improve productivity production of meat and dairy products but it would be potentially approach but the benefits are not captured within the existing or biodiversity value. Although muirburn directly releases self defeating to limit Scottish production if retailers simply production-based emissions Inventory. carbon dioxide from plant material, it can also be a valuable stocked imported meat which might have higher greenhouse tool for reducing the risk of severe wildfires which can ignite gas emissions per unit of product. The production of agricultural 6.20 peaty soils and woodlands, thereby releasing far greater products is part of a globally traded system. For example, about The significant increase in forest cover in Scotland from the volumes of greenhouse gases. Proposals to improve the 50% of lambs born in Scotland are exported to the rest of the 1950s to 1990s has sequestered a large volume of carbon regulation of muirburn and to encourage more widespread UK for finishing. The Scottish Government is commissioning dioxide. As these forests mature, the level of carbon good practice are currently under consideration by the research on the carbon footprint of Scottish livestock products. sequestration will be balanced by emissions from decaying Scottish Government. More generally these habitats need to 6.17 organic matter and harvesting of wood products. By 2020 and be managed in a manner that is consistent with climate Avoidable emissions from agricultural activities are those that without additional plantings30, projections suggest the net change policy. As well as locking carbon in soils, improving those can be reduced by changes in management practices level of carbon sequestered from forestry will have fallen to habitats for wildlife can also help mitigate against the effects such as changes in the timing and amounts of nitrogen 6.7 MtCO2e/yr, compared with 10.1 MtCO2e/yr in 2006, causing of a changing climate and help species adaptation. fertiliser or application of slurry and manures in line with best an increase in net Scottish emissions of over 3 MtCO2e/yr by practice. And farmers, along with other rural land managers, 2020. can help to increase the sequestration of carbon in the soil and vegetation, for example, by planting woodlands and by protecting high carbon soils. Analysis by the Scottish Government, based on original work by the Scottish Agricultural College for the Committee on Climate Change, suggests an emissions reduction potential of by 0.7 MtCO2e 28 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Agriculture/Environment/climatechange/ 30 The planting rate under a “business as usual” scenario is assumed to be the (34% Scottish target) or 1.3 MtCO2e (42% Scottish target) is Advice “mid” rate of 4,000 ha/yr from the the CEH Inventory and Projections of UK 29 Including both analysis by AEA Technology (2008) and internal analysis by Emissions by Sources and Removals by Sinks due to Land Use, Land Use possible by 2020 at reasonable cost, through a range of Change and Forestry, available from: Forestry Commission Scotland. changes to nutrient, soil and livestock management. http://www.edinburgh.ceh.ac.uk/ukcarbon/reports.htm 39 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 6: RURAL LAND USE Soils 6.26 BARRIERS AND RISKS

6.23 This will require appropriate protection for Scotland’s carbon 6.30 Scottish soils are very rich in carbon; they store over 3,000 rich soils, minimising, as far as possible, emissions from The main risks to delivering the potential level of emissions million tonnes of carbon, equivalent to over 180 years of agriculture and other land use activities, and maximising the reduction in the rural land sector are: annual Scottish greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the sequestration of carbon and the use of natural resources to generate renewable energy. Z The ability of increased advisory and communication management of this carbon store is extremely important. Of activity, coupled with existing incentive structures, to particular importance are Scottish peatlands, which make up realise the level of reductions required in avoidable the majority of Scottish soil carbon and over 50% of all UK soil 6.27 Economic instruments, such as emissions trading schemes emissions from the agriculture sector. There is a risk for carbon. Well managed soils will lead to further accumulations the 34% Scottish target for 2020 and a more significant risk of carbon. Poorly managed carbon rich soils, for example, or taxation, could contribute to the reduction in emissions within the rural land use management sector. However, there for a 42% target those subject to overgrazing, drainage, inappropriate are issues around the difficulty of measuring emissions and Z The development and implementation of new models in the ploughing and burning can lead to substantial emissions from the level of transaction costs given the number of businesses forestry sector to realise the increased rate of afforestation this stock of carbon. The changing climate may also affect this stock of carbon but to a lesser extent. involved. Further work on the use of economic instruments in Z Any lack of progress in improving the uncertainties in the the rural sector may be required. Inventory and a means of monitoring the effectiveness of 6.24 current efforts, leading to delays in action on the ground. The immediate need is to ensure appropriate protection for 6.28 those peatlands and high carbon soils. There are a variety of In the absence of applicable economic instruments, there is a NATIONAL CONVERSATION targets relating to the protection of peatland within UK Habitat greater need to increase alignment of payment and incentive 6.31 Action Plans. These cover management and condition of sites systems for land use activities to provide clearer opportunities Scottish policy on agriculture, forestry and rural development and will contribute to protecting peatlands. Other, short term for land managers, particularly in the face of volatile farm has to work within the framework of the EU Common actions, which are beginning to be addressed, include commodity prices. Any changes of this nature would need to Agricultural Policy and therefore the ability of Scotland to improving our understanding and measurement of the be consistent with the Common Agricultural Policy and other negotiate in the EU is likely to increase Scotland’s influence implications of different land use activities on Scotland’s soil EU legislation. over the overarching policy and delivery framework. carbon. In particular, a better understanding is required of activities that might enhance the ability of soil to sequester 6.29 6.32 carbon and reverse damage that has already taken place, for The transformational outcome will require that both new and Taxation has a fundamental influence on land use decisions. example, to areas of peatland. existing delivery mechanisms value carbon effectively and Greater flexibility to define a fiscal regime for Scotland would factor in carbon implications alongside the other objectives of help align taxation regimes with Scotland's economic and A comprehensive approach to carbon in rural land rural land use including food and energy security, biodiversity environmental priorities. use decisions and environmental heritage. A coherent framework is critically important and this will be a feature of the Rural Land Use 6.25 Summit to be held later in 2009. It is also timely that the The opportunities for further reductions in greenhouse gas Climate Change (Scotland) Bill includes a commitment to emissions in the rural land use sector up to 2050 will depend develop a Land Use Strategy by March 2011. This strategy will very largely on the balance required between the services build on the evidence gathered in the Rural Land Use Study required from Scotland’s land. Determining the appropriate mix which was launched in early autumn 2008 and the outputs of land use, and within that the appropriate mix of farming, will from the Land Use Summit. lead to the transformational outcome for this overarching sector. This can be achieved by ensuring that carbon is properly factored into decisions about optimising the productivity of Scotland’s natural resources. 40 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 6: RURAL LAND USE TABLE 7: DELIVERY PLAN FOR THE RURAL LAND USE Action Required measures (34% Scottish target, Measure 42% Scottish target or Transformational measure) Progress What more do we need to do? RURAL LAND USE (15.7 MtCO2e from net sources and -13.1 MtCO2e from net sinks in 2006) Livestock 34% Scottish Adopted by 45% of land managers: Supported scientific work on genetics and health. Tailor incentives in new Scotland Rural Development target Improved storage of manures and slurries; genetic improvement Programme. and better management systems to improve animal productivity Advisory campaigns on animal health. and fertility; action to improve animal health. Further development of anaerobic digestion (AD) to treat on-farm Work on AD being taken forward. Now receives double Link with community green waste schemes. and other bio-wastes. Renewables Obligation Certificates. Regulation probably required to meet this level – e.g. along the lines of Cross Compliance applied to 42% Scottish Same measures, but around 90% adoption. CAP payments. target Crops 34% Scottish Adopted by 45% of land managers: Guidance and advice available, funding available for slurry Shape incentives to incentivise desired outcome. target Minimising the release of emissions by applying nutrients at the management through SRDP. optimum rate, timing nutrient applications in line with best practice, using manure, composts and slurries in preference to Considering establishment of advisory programme. fertilisers; and choosing plant varieties which use nitrogen more efficiently. 42% Scottish Same measures, but around 90% adoption. target Land and soil 34% Scottish Protecting peatland and moorland; protecting and creating other Guidance and advice available. New incentives or regulation if better understanding management target semi-natural habitats; managing wetlands and flood plains; of issue does not lead to sufficient action. creating and managing farm woodlands; and reduced tillage. Considering establishment of advisory programme. Current emissions and the likely impact of these measures is uncertain. Woodland 34% Scottish Planting rate of around 10 kha/year. Planting currently only 4 kha/year. Further intervention required to boost planting rates. creation target 42% Scottish Planting rate of 15 kha/year. Work ongoing to develop funding streams through carbon New funding models required. target offsetting and other funding models. 41 42 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 7: WASTE BACKGROUND THE MAIN DELIVERY MECHANISMS CHAPTER 7: 7.1 7.7 WASTE In the absence of further interventions, emissions from waste are expected to reduce by at least 10%, from about 2.5 MtCO2e Reducing landfill requires one or more of a range of measures including: fiscal, e.g. landfill tax; awareness, e.g. ensuring in 2006 to about 2.2 MtCO2e in 2020. that businesses and householders have good information on recycling services; ensuring that energy is produced from 7.2 waste efficiently; and using public procurement to drive waste KEY MESSAGES Key waste policies are driven in part by EU targets on reducing management outcomes, e.g. using recycled material. the amount of biodegradable municipal waste sent to landfill. 7.8 • Emissions from waste have to be reduced in Work is ongoing to explore the practicalities of landfill bans; 2020 by 1.0 MtCO2e against 2006 levels. 7.3 the project reports later in autumn 2009. The UK Government Landfill Tax is a key driver for reducing • Targets for reducing waste sent to landfill the amount of waste sent to landfill. Other key drivers include 7.9 are set in part by EU legislation. funding, voluntary agreements with industry and producer Provisions in the waste chapter of the Climate Change • Scotland has met the EU 2010 target on responsibility legislation. (Scotland) Bill could promote waste prevention and re-use, biodegradable municipal waste: subsequent as well as improving separate collection of waste and thus targets will be challenging. MEETING SCOTLAND’S 2020 AND 2050 TARGETS making recycling easier. All of these would improve use of • Scotland has existing detailed targets on 7.4 resources and reduce Scotland’s carbon impacts. municipal waste prevention and recycling. Reducing the amount of commercial waste sent to landfill will 7.10 • More work is required to obtain better data be achieved through the Landfill Tax, producer responsibility Table 2 in Chapter 2 sets out the milestones, challenges, and on the amount of commercial waste and its legislation, voluntary agreements with industry and the actions in the short, medium and long term in this sector and composition. provision of advice on resource efficiency and waste prevention. Table 8 below identifies the measures needed to meet the targets in 2020. 7.5 Continued reductions in the amount of household waste sent NATIONAL CONVERSATION to landfill will be achieved through more waste prevention 7.11 work (eg on food waste); through more recycling and through Targets for reducing waste sent to landfill are set in part by infrastructure to treat residual waste. The use of anaerobic EU legislation. The ability of Scotland to negotiate in the EU is digestion to reduce food waste to landfill provides one likely to increase Scotland’s influence over the overarching opportunity which needs to be developed further in Scotland. policy and delivery framework. 7.6 7.12 The UK Committee on Climate Change suggested provisional Taxation has a fundamental influence on waste decisions. figures of a 0.7 MtCO2e saving from the waste sector in Greater flexibility to define a fiscal regime for Scotland would Scotland by 2020. These figures were calculated before it was help align taxation regimes with Scotland's economic and Photo: North Lanarkshire Council announced as part of the UK Government Budget that the environmental priorities – for example, landfill tax and the standard rate of Landfill Tax would continue to increase up to aggregates levy are currently set at UK level. 2013. So, a higher saving is a clear possibility. 7.13 Other areas where additional powers for Scotland could help to contribute to meeting climate change targets are the regulations covering excess packaging, to enable a more aggressive focus on packaging reduction, and the regulation of waste exports. 43 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 7: WASTE TABLE 8: DELIVERY PLAN FOR THE WASTE SECTOR Action Required measures (34% Scottish target, Measure 42% Scottish target or Transformational measure) Progress What more do we need to do? WASTE (2.5 MtCO2e in 2006) Reducing 34% Scottish 60% of municipal waste to be recycled/composted by 2020. New National Waste Management Plan in 2010. Ban biodegradable waste to landfill. emissions from target municipal waste Minimise biodegradable waste sent to landfill in line with EU Municipal recycling rates increasing but pace of increase is Further progress on minimising waste, increasing re- Landfill Directive targets in 2010, 2013 and 2020. slowing down. use and recycling. Up to 25% can be used for Energy from Waste in high efficiency More landfill gas being captured – and amount of waste sent plants. to landfill falling. 2010 target on reducing the amount of biodegradable municipal waste sent to landfill has been met. However, 2013 target is very challenging. Carbon savings in Scotland and elsewhere identified from life cycle analysis Aim to stop growth in municipal waste by 2010: latest figures show waste growth is stabilising. Anaerobic digestion for biodegradable waste. AD to treat food waste is coming forward – now receives Pay close attention to progress. double Renewables Obligation Certificates – although close attention is needed on progress in this area. Reducing 34% Scottish Reduce biodegradable waste going to landfill. UK landfill tax escalator drives reductions in landfill – has Ban more waste from landfill: UK landfill ban project emissions from target been extended to 2013. reports in September. commercial and industrial waste Anaerobic digestion for biodegradable waste (see above). Producer responsibility obligation in a number of these Further progress on minimising waste, increasing re- areas. use and recycling. Reuse or recycle 70% of Construction and Demolition waste by 2020: new target in EU Waste Framework Directive, which we are Voluntary agreements on waste with a number of industry already close to meeting. sectors are in place or planned. Government supports advice to business on resource efficiency and waste prevention. 44 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 7: WASTE 45 46 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 8: NEXT STEPS The legislative process 8.4 CHAPTER 8: 8.1 The workstreams on the key sectors will be responsible for NEXT STEPS The Climate Change (Scotland) Bill, once enacted, will place a duty on Scottish Ministers to set annual targets for the generating the next level of detail for the Report on Proposals and Policies. The Delivery Plan makes clear that maximum amount of the net Scottish emissions account, with transformational outcomes around energy, transport and land those for the first period (2010-2022) having to be set by use must be delivered to put Scotland on the pathway to 1 June 2010. Before finalising these targets, Scottish Ministers meeting its 2050 target. Delivering the 10 Energy Pledges will are obliged to request advice from the relevant body which will make a vital contribution. The Pledges form a coherent be the Committee on Climate Change. approach to energy issues, focussing on both short- and longer-term opportunities for Scotland to benefit from 8.2 competitive advantage in the move towards a low-carbon This Delivery Plan is necessarily at a high level and as such economy, thereby contributing to economic recovery and provides limited detail of abatement measures and how they growth and to addressing climate change. will be delivered in practice. The Plan is a precursor to the first Report on Proposals and Policies which, under the 8.5 provisions of the Bill, Scottish Ministers are obliged to lay Some of the measures in the Delivery Plan are existing or in before the Scottish Parliament, expected to be in summer train. These will be reviewed to ensure they will deliver the 2010. emissions reductions expected of them. Where the measures are new they will be worked up in more detail, including a Strengthened governance arrangements timeline for their delivery in line with the milestones defined in the Delivery Plan. This will be supported by work to provide 8.3 a more detailed assessment of abatement potential across all Given the statutory imperative of delivering the emissions the key sectors, building a more distinct Scottish dimension to reductions, new governance arrangements have been adopted the analysis contained in the First Report of the Committee on in the Scottish Government to support the development work Climate Change. The outcome of this work will be contained in over the coming year and to ensure delivery of the final the Report on Proposals and Policies. package of measures contained in the Report on Proposals and Policies. The Director General for the Environment has 8.6 been appointed as the Government’s climate change The Government’s proposals for future work will be reviewed “champion” to oversee the delivery process with a new Climate in light of the final Climate Change (Scotland) Bill expected to Change Delivery Board established. The Board is supported be agreed in June. by a Climate Change Operational Group which co-ordinates the work of 13 workstreams covering the key sectors and several cross-cutting areas. This reflects the wide-ranging nature of the abatement measures and the range of policy areas involved in tackling climate change. Photo: Scottish Government 47 CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY PLAN CHAPTER 8: NEXT STEPS New system of carbon management and Economic opportunities and costs Wider engagement and behaviour change assessment 8.9 8.12

8.7 Early action in moving Scotland down the low carbon pathway Delivering the scale of emissions reductions in the Delivery One of the cross-cutting workstreams is responsible for the is seen as providing Scotland with significant economic Plan will require real changes from all in Scottish society: development of a new system of carbon management within opportunities across all the key sectors. Existing work government and the public sector, business, voluntary and the Scottish Government. Carbon is to become an integral underway in this area will be enhanced to ensure that the community groups and individuals. An engagement strategy is part of the policy-making and budgetary processes. This will economic potential is understood and realised. In the joint being prepared to ensure we approach this in an effective and be a fundamental change of approach across government Communiqué agreed in May by the Scottish Government and co-ordinated way. with carbon being treated in a similar way to finance and is a the Scottish Trades Union Council it was agreed that clear signal of the importance the Government attaches to Government analysts will undertake a scoping exercise of 8.13 addressing climate change. The development of an effective what research there is on the impact of climate change on The Scottish Environmental Attitudes and Behaviours Survey and workable means of carbon management, and its employment at national and regional level. Further work is (SEABS) has offered an important insight into how people in establishment, is required in time for the Bill’s monitoring also required on the costs of policies in the Delivery Plan, the Scotland think and behave on green issues. However, there is requirements coming into effect. distribution of these costs, and ancillary impacts in terms of, a need to deepen this understanding in order to influence for example, fuel poverty. attitudes and enable change. The next steps to this will involve:

8.8 Z Commissioning in-depth qualitative follow up research into The Government’s commitment to publish a carbon Improving the means of measuring progress key aspects of SEABS that require further investigation; this assessment of the Budget for 2010-11 (in September 2009) is 8.10 is likely to consist of a suite of studies focusing on a concrete expression of its intentions in this area. This It is important that the impact of Scotland’s abatement effort understanding behaviour change assessment is supported by work currently underway to can be measured. The net Scottish emissions account will Z Developing further work on enabling behaviour change, develop a High Level Assessment methodology to assess the provide the basis for measuring progress against targets. ensuring that policy development is taken forward with a carbon impact of the Government’s expenditure. This is As defined in the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill, this will be net clear understanding of attitudes and behaviours combined with an Individual Level Assessment which will emissions, based on Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions develop a methodology to assess the potential emissions impact Z Making SEABS findings more widely accessible to Inventory, with adjustments for credits and debits. The Inventory of a policy and then integrate this work into the overarching academic/analytical study. has its shortcomings, as discussed at various points in this assessment of individual policies and programmes. Together, Delivery Plan. Work is ongoing, with the UK Government and these carbon assessment tools will enable the Government to 8.14 other Devolved Administrations, to improve the content of the understand better the implications of its budgetary and policy Finally, it must be remembered that one of the key aims of the Inventory, the current focus being on the energy and land use choices and thereby facilitate the ongoing reduction in Scottish Government – in bringing forward the Climate sectors, where the aim is to increase the resolution of the emissions associated with its decisions. The findings from the Change (Scotland) Bill to set ambitious and challenging basic data upon which estimates of emissions are based. first phase of work to develop both of these assessment targets, and in producing this Delivery Plan to show how these While some improvements can be made in the short term it is methodologies will be available during the second half of 2009. targets can be delivered – is to demonstrate strong leadership inevitable that others will take place over a longer time-scale. to others and to use this to influence the international Other means of demonstrating progress which is not captured community. The engagement strategy will need to consider in the Inventory will need to be explored and could form part how the Scottish Government will galvanise support and of a wider commentary on overall performance. action from others in the global effort to tackle climate change. 8.11 Importantly, options to improve the inventory compilation process at both a UK and Scotland level are being explored with a view to speeding up the reporting process. 48 © Crown copyright 2009 ISBN: 978-0-7559-8074-1 This document is also available on the Scottish Government website: www.scotland.gov.uk RR Donnelley B60850 06/09 Climate Change point of contact: 0131 244 7815 www.scotland.gov.uk/topics/environment/climatechange w w w . s c o t l a n d . g o v . u k