Ethiopia's Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)

2.1 Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability 3

2.2 Policy, Legal and Institutional Framework 4 3. Nationally Determined Contribution Revision Process 6

3.1 Revision Process 6

3.2 Fairness and ambition 7

3.3 Conditionality of action 8 4. NDC Climate Change Mitigation Contribution 9

4.1 Updated business-as-usual, unconditional, and conditional elements 9

4.2 Land use change and forestry 11

4.3 Livestock sector 13

4.4 Energy sector 14

4.5 Waste sector 15

4.6 Industry sector 15

4.7 Managed soils sector 16 5. NDC Climate Change Adaptation Contribution 17 6. Mitigation Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV), and Adaptation Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) 20 ii UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 7. Means of Implementation 21

7.1 Conditional and Unconditional Financing Needs 21

7.2 Capacity building and technology transfer 21

7.3. Policy Mechanisms and Institutional Arrangements 22 7.3.1 10-Year Development Plan 22

7.3.2 Working with the Private Sector 23

7.4 Carbon Markets 23 Annex 1: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Ethiopia’s NDC 25 Annex 2: Adaptation actions 33 List of Figures Figure 1: Ethiopia’s climate change policy roadmap 4 Figure 2: Unconditional and conditional elements of NDC funding 8 Figure 3: Ethiopia’s BAU, unconditional and conditional emission pathways 9 Figure 4: Overview of sectoral contributions to Ethiopia GHG mitigation targets  10 Figure 5: Number of adaptation interventions per sector 18 Figure 6: NDC-specific MRV and M&E framework 20 Figure 7: Financing needs to implement this NDC 21 Figure 8: Breakdown of conditional and unconditional financing 22 List of Tables Table 1: GHG emission projections in BAU, unconditional and conditional pathways 10 Table 2: Sectoral emissions in the business-as-usual/BAU and mitigation potentials by sector and conditionality 11 Table 3: Policy interventions in LUCF 12 Table 4: Policy interventions in the livestock sector 13 Table 5: Policy intervention in the waste sector 14 Table 6: Policy intervention in the waste sector 15 Table 7: Policy intervention in the industry sector 16 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION iii List of Acronyms 10YDP 10-Year Development Plan AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report BAU Business-As-Usual BTR Biennial Transparency Report BUR Biennial Update Report CCU Climate Change Units CDM Clean Development Mechanism CMA Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement CO2eq Carbon Dioxide Equivalent COP Conference of the Parties CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus 2019 CRGE Climate Resilience and Green Economy Strategy CSA Central Statistics Agency EFCCC Environment, Forest and Climate Change Commission EPACC Ethiopian Program of Adaptation on Climate Change ETF Enhanced Transparency Framework GDP Gross Domestic Product GEM Green Economy Model GHG Greenhouse Gases GoE Government of Ethiopia GTP II Second Growth and Transformation Plan GWPs Global Warming Potentials HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons iv UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION H-NAP National Health Adaptation Plan to Climate Change ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization INC Initial National Communication INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITMO Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes IWUAS Irrigation Water User Associations KP Kyoto Protocol LDC Least Developed Country LMP Livestock Master Plan LT-LEDS Long Term Low Emission Development Strategy LUCF Land Use Change and Forestry M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDB Multilateral Development Bank MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoF Ministry of Finance MoT Ministry of Transport MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity MRV Measuring, Reporting and Verification MSW Municipal Solid Waste Mt Megatons NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAP National Adaptation Plan NAP-ETH Ethiopia’s National Adaptation Plan 2019 NC National Contribution NDC Nationally Determined Contributions PA Paris Agreement PDC Planning and Development Commission RE Renewable Energy REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SNC Second National Communication UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WRI World Resources Institute UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION v Foreword The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia remains committed to an ambitious contribution towards the Paris Agreement goals of containing the global average temperature increase below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C. Given the devastating impacts that climate change is already having on our people, environment and economy, it is imperative that immediate global climate action is taken to increase climate resilience and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Recognizing Ethiopia’s national circumstances and capabilities, this updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) represents a clear progression in ambition with 68.8% emissions reduction target by 2030 from the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, which also seeks to inspire others to increase their contribution to this collective effort. Ethiopia’s NDC is built on its Climate Resilience and Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) and set out an ambitious development trajectory that aims to reach lower-middle-income status. The CRGE is continuing to be one of the strategic pillars of the 10-Year Development Plan (10YDP) during in the NDC implementation period. We have undertaken economy-wide analysis and comprehensive stakeholder engagement to update our NDC, which builds on Ethiopia’s 1st NDC. These efforts generated a robust evidence base for identifying and prioritising mitigation and adaptation contributions, establishing intermediate indicators to measure progress towards the updated targets, and strengthening Measuring, Reporting and Verification and Monitoring and Evaluation systems. This updated NDC provides a suite of sectoral priority interventions that will guide sectors, development partners, development financing institutions, the private sector, and other stakeholders in implementing the activities set out in this document. Ethiopia can achieve the ambitious vision presented in this updated NDC only in cooperation with our partners. Therefore, this is a call to action to all stakeholders to join hands and contribute to the realisation of this ambitious updated NDC. H.E. Prof. Fekadu Beyene Aleka Commissioner for the Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Commission of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia vi UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 1. Introduction This document presents Ethiopia’s update to its pathways of national planning frameworks and first NDC, covering the period between 2020 and policies, and fully vetted with stakeholders. 2030. It builds upon several national climate and In determining mitigation contributions, the development policy initiatives including the first following activities were undertaken: (i) updating NDC, the CRGE mid-term review, the emerging the BAU GHG emission pathway, (ii) preparing 2050 Long Term Low Emission Development GHG emission reduction pathways to 2030 Strategy (LT-LEDS), the Green Legacy Initiative, and (national and sectoral), (iii) setting 2025 and 2030 Ethiopia’s 10YDP which considers CRGE as one of mitigation targets consistent with Ethiopia’s strong its strategic pillars for the period 2020-2030. political ambition and readiness to act on climate As part of this updating process, the Government change, (iv) assessing and prioritizing mitigation of Ethiopia (GoE) has undertaken economy-wide interventions and indicator selection through analysis using Green Economic modelling (GEM) a consultative process, and (v) disaggregating and comprehensive stakeholder engagement. conditional and unconditional contributions The economic data and greenhouse gases (GHG) In determining adaptation contributions, the data and information have been thoroughly following activities were undertaken: a review updated which led to a substantially revised of Ethiopia’s adaptation policy, institutional BAU pathway, as well as a clearer demarcation landscape, and their respective challenges; setting of the unconditional and conditional elements a 2018 baseline and 2030 targets; prioritization of of the proposed actions. As a result, there are 40 adaptation interventions and the selection of some changes to the first update submission accompanying indicators. Apart from this, a review Ethiopia made in December 2020. These steps of Ethiopia’s current measuring, reporting and have been taken to ensure the updated NDC is verification (MRV) and monitoring and evaluation in full alignment with growth and development (M&E) systems was also conducted. UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 1 2. National Circumstances Ethiopia is a land-locked country located in the transformation. This is evidenced by the fact the Horn of Africa and shares borders with Eritrea to share of the agricultural sector to GDP decreased the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan to 32.7% in 2019/20 from 45.7 in 2010/11 while and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the the construction and services sectors made up south. Ethiopia’s topography is characterized by the majority of the growth. The share of the large regional differences, which are reflected in constructions and the service sectors from the its climate. The lowlands in the southeast, covering total GDP reached as high as 21.1 and 39.5, approximately 55% of the countries land area and respectively, in 2019/20. All this while, the rate northeast are tropical with average temperatures of poverty has declined from 29.6% in 2010/11 of 25-30°C, while the central highlands (over to 23.5% in 2019/20 (PDC, 2021). 1500 meters in elevation, covering about 45% Ethiopia has heavily invested in road and railway of the country’s surface) are much cooler with infrastructure, industrial parks universities, average temperatures around 15-20°C. The and the energy sector over the last decades. highland plateau is divided by the East African The 10YDP aims to build on the enhanced Rift Valley. Mean annual rainfall ranges from less physical infrastructure to promote the industrial than 300 mm in the south-eastern and north- sector and achieve successful economic western lowlands to over 2,000 mm in the south- transformation. It envisions increasing the share western highlands. Because of this latitudinal and of the manufacturing from the total GDP from altitudinal contrasts, the climate system is equally the current level of 6.9% to 17.2% by 2030 (PDC, extraordinarily complex. 2021). The plan also aims to achieve an average economic growth of 10% in the coming ten years Ethiopia is also one of the least developed (PDC, 2021). Agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, countries in the world and is the second-most urban development and the mining sectors are populous country in Africa with a population of going to be the priority sectors. The plan has also more than 100 million (CSA, 2013). The country mainstreamed Sustainable Development Goals has endorsed a climate resilient green economic (SDGs) and climate resilient green economy in path since 2011 and has registered dramatic different sectors. This ensures that the legacy of economic growth, with a growth rate averaging green economic development path will extend 9.2% a year from 2010/11 to 2019/20. This into the future. growth rate is high when compared to a regional average of 5.4% (PDC, 2021). The high growth The Ethiopian economy is vulnerable to climate rates have been also accompanied by structural change. This is because the agriculture sector, 2 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION which employed 78% of the country’s labour 6% growth. However, other crises, although of force in 2013, heavily relies on rainfall. Apart from smaller magnitude but serious nevertheless, have this, nearly 80% of the population of Ethiopia contributed to Ethiopia’s vulnerability. These lives in the rural area where most of them are include a desert locust invasion that affected smallholders who practice low input and low at least one million people; erratic rainfall that output farming in a very fragmented land (CSA, disrupted the country’s dominant rain-fed 2015). The vulnerability of the sector to climate agricultural sector as well as cholera, measles, change has urged the Ethiopian government and yellow fever outbreaks. Combined, these to design strategies to mitigate the possible factors have a significant systemic shock that has impacts of climate change. Hence, mitigation and profound implications for Ethiopia, both for short- adaptation activities have been already included and medium- to long-term which now require in the sectoral plans and various initiatives. For to be considered in all developmental planning example, the Agriculture Growth Program (AGP), processes,1 including updating of Ethiopia’s the Livestock Master Plan (LMP), Livestock & NDC. Nevertheless, the disruptions caused by the Fisheries Sector Plan (LFSP) and the Sustainable Covid-19 Pandemic also offer an opportunity to Land Management Programme (SLMP) are ‘build forward greener’. This NDC, mainstreamed critical programs in the agriculture sector and in to the ten years development plan, sets out are also included in the National Adaptation Plan Ethiopia’s priorities in building its low carbon (NAP). The AGP enables improving agricultural climate resilient future. productivity and commercialization of targeted smallholder farmers. The SLMP has been a way for mainstreaming green economy needs into

2.1 Climate Change Impacts and sectoral programmes at all levels and it has Vulnerability been configured to the safety net programmes. Ethiopia’s contribution to the global GHG NAP is a critical part of the CRGE that focuses emission is infinitesimal (currently estimated at on adaptation programs taken by each sector to 0.04%) (Crippa, 2019). But the country is highly build climate resilient economy. The ten years’ vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This development plan inculcated the CRGE and the is due to Ethiopia’s high dependence on rain- NAP to build climate resilient green economy in fed agriculture and natural resources, as well the coming years. as its relatively low adaptive capacity. There is COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the considerable evidence of climate change impacts vulnerability of Ethiopia and resulted in extensive in Ethiopia over the last 50 years. At the national disruption to lives and livelihoods. Ethiopia is level, temperatures have increased by an average currently facing a double threat from climate of around 1°C since the 1960s. Rainfall is subject change and the COVID-19 pandemic. According to high inter-annual and intra-annual variability. to official figures, Ethiopia’s economy grew at 6.1 Yearly variation around mean rainfall level is 25% percent in the financial year 2020, compared to and can increase to 50% in some parts of the 9 percent in 2019. Remittance declined by 10 country. Despite this complexity, there is evidence percent in 2020, and Foreign Direct Investment of a 20% decrease in rainfall in the south-central inflows were 20 percent lower, affecting already region of the country. Extreme weather events thin financially reserve levels and increasing are common, especially drought and flood, with external financing needs. An economic rebound 1 United Nations Ethiopia, Socio-economic Impact of COVID-19 in is expected in 2021 to achieve a modest rate of Ethiopia (2020). UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 3 indications that their frequency of occurrence increasing vulnerability to risks and hazards, has increased in the last ten years, relative to the and heightening the importance of sustainable decade before. adaptation and resilience measures. Across all of these measures, consideration of gender The impact of climate change and variability is equality and inclusion of vulnerable groups already being experienced in almost all sectors and communities is essential for design and with different intensity across the country. Water implementation to move towards equitable scarcity and drought conditions are expected outcomes. to further increase risks of food insecurity and may exacerbate conflict situations over scarce resources and population movements. Heavy 2.2 Policy, Legal and rains, flooding and soil erosion put both urban Institutional Framework and rural infrastructures at risk, particularly for poor and vulnerable groups. Increased Ethiopia’s policy framework for climate change occurrences of drought conditions and reduced mitigation and adaptation has progressively rainfall across much of the country will further evolved since the ratification of the United impact agriculture, livestock, food security and Nations Framework Convention on Climate human health. Environmental degradation Change (UNFCCC) in 1994. As part of its impacted water resources, and the loss of commitment, Ethiopia submitted to the UNFCCC biodiversity and ecosystem services constitute its Initial National Communication (INC) in 2001 serious obstacles to the country’s continued and Second National Communication (SNC) development and poverty reduction efforts, in 2015. The country also launched National Figure 1: Ethiopia’s climate change policy roadmap Submission of National EPACC (Ethiopia Ratification Ethiopia’s Initial National Ratification of Adaptation Program of of the Constitution Communication Kyoto Protocol Programme of Adaptation on UNFCCC1994 1995 (INC) to UNFCCC 2005 Action (NAPA) Climate Change) 2001 2007 2010 Submission of Climate Climate Resilient Nationally Climate Second National Climate Resilient Resilience and Green Appropriate Resilience Communication Transport Sector Strategy Economy Mitigation Strategy: Energy (SNC) to Strategy 2015 Agriculture and Strategy (CRGE) Actions (NAMA) & Water 2015 UNFCCC 2015 Forestry 2015 2011 2010 National Health Second Climate Resilience Submission of Adaptation Ratification of the Growth and Strategy: Urban INDC converts to INDC to UNFCCC Plan to Climate Paris Agreement Transformation Development and NDC March 2017 March 2015 Change (H-NAP) March 2017 Plan (GTPII) 2016 Housing 2017 2017 National Resource *Updating Ethiopia’s 10 Year Adaptation National Mobilisation Ethiopia’s Development Plan (NAP) Adaptation Plan Strategy for NAP- NDC (2020) Plan 2020 Implementation (NAP-ETH) 2017 ETH 2020 Roadmap 2017 4 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Adaptation Plan of Action in 2007, Ethiopian Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) for the Program of Adaptation on Climate Change and 2015-2020 period. The newly endorsed 10YDP Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions in has also set building climate resilient green 2010. Ethiopia has endorsed a Climate Resilient economy as one of its strategic pillars. Ethiopia Green Economy (CRGE) strategy to build a has also updated its NDC building on the 10YDP green and resilient economy in 2011. Apart and with extensive review and participation from this, sectoral policies and strategies have of relevant stakeholders. The following figure been formulated to provide tailored and sector- summarizes Ethiopia’s climate change policy specific strategic interventions. These include roadmap since 1994. the following: the Climate Resilience Strategy for Agriculture and Forestry (2015); the Climate Ethiopia has progressively put in place Resilience Strategy for Energy and Water (2015); an institutional architecture which follows the Climate Resilient Strategy for the Transport sectoral approach to implement CRGE/NDC Sector (2015); the National Health Adaptation interventions. In this regard, the Environment, Plan to Climate Change (H-NAP, 2017) and Forest and Climate Change Commission the Climate Resilience Strategy for Urban (EFCCC), is the lead agency for the coordination Development and Housing (2017). of Ethiopia’s response to climate change and is the national focal point to the UNFCCC; it Ethiopia submitted its Intended Nationally formulates environmental laws and standards; Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2015 and and develops, coordinates and guarantees the ratified the Paris Agreement (PA) in March 2016, implementation of sectoral programs and plans. turning its INDC into its NDC. Ethiopia’s first NDC A CRGE Facility was established in 2013, overseen aspired to reduce emissions from all sectors by by Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for 64% by 2030 from BAU scenario. As part of the financial aspects of CRGE implementation, while endeavor to bolster national adaptive capacity, the Environment, Forests, and Climate Change Ethiopia developed its National Adaptation Commission (EFCCC) is responsible for technical Plan (NAP-ETH) in 2017. In order to implement elements and day-to-day administration, as well NAP, subsequent strategies, notably the gender as developing guidance and rules for CRGE analysis for NAP; the National Adaptation Plan implementation. The institutional arrangements (NAP) Implementation Roadmap and NAP-ETH reflect a cross-sectoral, multi-disciplinary Resource Mobilization strategy were developed approach organized through bodies like the between 2018 and 2020. inter-ministerial and management committee and Ethiopia has been implementing its climate allows for regional engagement. Most relevant change policy by mainstreaming into national line ministries have in-house CRGE directorates, development plans. In this regard, the CRGE units, or bureaus that focus on climate change strategy was mainstreamed into the Second policy implementation. UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 5 3. Nationally Determined Contribution Revision Process

3.1 Revision Process 3. Setting 2025 interim and 2030 final NDC targets The NDC updating process has gone through 4. Prioritizing mitigation interventions and a series of steps including extensive document indicator selection and, review, data collection, model development and validation, as well as stakeholder consultations. In 5. Determining conditional and unconditional addition to this, the recent IPCC 2006 guideline policy action has been used for estimating the GHG emission. The adaptation component is based on a review The updating process employed Ethiopia’s of existing documents including NAP-ETH, the Green Economy Model (GEM) to project the GHG NAP implementation road map and its resource emission pathways taking into consideration the mobilization strategy, as well as the various Ethiopian development ambition from 2020 to sector-based vulnerability assessments. Then, 2030. Relevant data was collected from pertinent the long list of actions has been discussed and sources and sectors. In this regard, a recently prioritized. The required resource for realizing updated livestock inventory, and updated the NDC was estimated based on goals and global warming potentials (GWPs) as per the targets of the 10YDP. The financial estimation most recent IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) further disaggregated the total required resource were used. in to conditional and unconditional components. The technical analysis of the mitigation In addition, detailed gender and institutional component comprises of five concisely defined capacity gap analyses were conducted to inform methodological steps: NDC updating process. 1. Preparing an updated BAU scenario 2. Preparing updated GHG abatement policy scenarios for 2030 6 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

3.2 Fairness and ambition The updated NDC represents a clear progression in ambition for the following reasons: Higher robustness of GHG emissions pathways and targets through improvements in methodology, thereby more accurately and completely capturing historical emissions and 1 emissions pathways through greater alignment with national GHG inventories, revised emission factors and improved consistency with the IPCC’s 2006 guidelines. Ethiopia proposes an emission reduction target of 68.8% which is more ambitious compared 2 to its first NDC (64%). Inclusion of a detailed adaptation baseline and 2030 targets. The first NDC did not have a 3 quantified baseline and targets. Clear demarcation between unconditional and conditional mitigation and adaptation 4 interventions, with a meaningful domestic contribution, unlike the first NDC. Commitment to explore further ambition increases during the NDC commitment period. This includes potentially enhancing Ethiopia’s NDC ambition by reducing emissions currently outside the scope of this NDC update, for instance for GHGs not covered by the current NDC 5 (e.g., Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the context of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol) where GoE initiatives on sustainable cooling are already underway and further mitigation potential exists. 6 Inclusion of additional adaptation interventions per sector. Better adaptability and flexibility of the methodology to potential future changes of policies 7 and external shocks. An enhanced ability to track progress on mitigation and adaptation actions with improved 8 MRV/M&E. UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 7

3.3 Conditionality of action the total reduction will be domestically financed while the remaining 80% shall be financed by The level of ambition that can be achieved international support. Although exceptions have unconditionally, and the level of international been applied where some mitigation interventions support required to achieve conditional targets, rely fully on international support, this guide indicates noteworthy progress in this updated is regarded as appropriate when considering NDC. The proposed NDC’s policy interventions Ethiopia’s marginal historical responsibility and are sector-wide programmatic actions, comprising least developed country (LDC) status, domestic many different activities requiring both domestic resource availability and sustainable development and international investment. Based on the priorities. This split assumes that Ethiopia will experience of other countries and the economic implement the least-cost mitigation actions first realities of Ethiopia, it is proposed that 20% of to achieve its unconditional targets. Figure 2: Unconditional and conditional elements of NDC funding 20% 80% Of Ethiopia’s Mitigation & Adaptation Of Ethiopia’s Mitigation & Adaptation Contributions are Unconditional Contributions are Conditional Domestically financed Internationally/Donor financed 8 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 4. NDC Climate Change Mitigation Contribution

4.1 Updated business-as- and BAU. The unconditional pathway will result usual, unconditional, and in absolute emission levels of 347.3 Mt CO2eq in 2030, which represents a reduction against the conditional elements revised BAU of 14% (-56 Mt CO2eq) in 2030. The The BAU emission projections of the updated impact of further policy interventions proposed NDC differ from the 1st NDC because of under the conditional pathway decreases differences in the methods of estimation and absolute emission levels to 125.8 Mt CO2eq such the updated data used compared to the first that the combined impact of unconditional and NDC. In this regard, the updated base year conditional contributions represents a reduction emissions in 2010 are estimated at 247 million of 68.8% (-277.7 Mt CO2eq) in comparison with metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents the revised BAU emissions in 2030 (Figure 3). (Mt CO2eq) which are projected to increase to This ambitious pathway is conditional on a level of 403.5 Mt CO2eq in the BAU scenario international support and includes Ethiopia´s in 2030. The projections are further divided into unconditional efforts. three pathways, i.e., unconditional, conditional Figure 3: Ethiopia’s BAU, unconditional and conditional emission pathways 450 400 350 300 Mt CO2e 250 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year NDC Conditional (including unconditional) NDC Unconditional Business as usual/BAU Note: The graph “NDC Conditional” represents the combined impact of unconditional and conditional elements. UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 9 Figure 4: Overview of sectoral contributions to Ethiopia GHG mitigation targets LUCF Energy Managed soils -68.8% below BAU, conditional -14% below BAU, Industry Waste Livestock Conditional pathway including uncondtional unconditional contribution pathway Unconditional 450 403.5 400 347.3 350 300 192.9 247.5 195 250 200 11.5 112 26 150 11 91.8 180 180.0 9 20 27.3 125.8 100 5 14.9 10.9 9.5 120 140 9.5 22.6 2.9 50 10.6 -99.9 0 LUCF Industry Waste Livestock Managed soils Energy Historical BAU Emissions Emission in in 2030 2030 2030 2010 Conditional Unconditional Target Target Figure 4 above provides an overview of how urbanization. These emerging realities will have each of the different sectors will contribute to this their own cumulative repercussion on the pattern overall reduction. of emission. Thus, emissions from industry and It is crystal clear that the Ethiopian economy will energy are expected to increase by a larger undergo structural change in the coming years. percentage compared to other sectors (Table 1). The 10YDP signifies that the base of the economy Nevertheless, the agricultural sector, particularly will be anchored on the manufacturing sector. livestock will remain as the main contributor to In addition to this, there will be high pace of the GHG emission in the coming years followed Table 1: GHG emission projections in BAU, unconditional and conditional pathways Sector BAU emission Unconditional emission Conditional emission projection projection (Mt CO2eq) projection (Mt CO2eq) (incl. unconditional) (Mt CO2eq) 2020 2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030 Industry 5.9 12.7 26.1 12.9 27.3 10.2 22.6 Energy 10.7 14.4 20.0 12.7 14.9 10.4 9.5 LUCF 125.0 133.8 140.2 112.6 91.8 21.4 -99.9 Livestock 146.4 169.5 194.8 168.7 192.9 162.8 180.0 Managed Soils 5.8 8.1 11.0 8.0 10.9 8.0 10.6 Waste 9.1 10.3 11.5 9.4 9.5 6.0 2.9 TOTAL (Mt CO2eq) 302.9 348.8 403.5 324.3 347.3 218.8 125.8 10 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION by the Land Use and Forestry sector. Both sectors be presented. The conditional targets include together represent 83% (LUCF 35% and livestock unconditional ones for all sectors. 48%) of total BAU emissions in 2030. Important to note is that LUCF accounts for emissions from biomass use e.g., for cooking and baking, which is

4.2 Land use change and the single largest driver of LUCF-related emissions. forestry The following table describes the contribution Emissions in LUCF originate from net changes of each sector and sub sector to aggregate in the stock of carbon in the country, largely unconditional and conditional emission reduction emanated from land conversion and emissions targets, ordered by mitigation potential in each of from biomass energy use. Unlike the first NDC, the respective sector categories. which only considered forest land as a land Whereas the mitigation potentials are category, this stock of carbon is determined by represented at sector level considering all the dynamics among all types of land classes sector-relevant policies and variables as namely wetland, forest land, grass land, crop underlying interlinked drivers of emissions, land, settlement, and other land. The result activity level emission reductions are monitored has shown that Land Use Change and Forestry and verified through sectoral MRV systems upon (LUCF) have the largest mitigation potential as implementation of each activity in the context a result of highly ambitious reforestation and of the 10YDP. The projected emission reduction forest restoration targets (Table 2). At the same potential estimates by sector and pathways are time, LUCF is the second most important driver described in detail in Table 2. of emissions under BAU assumptions (Table1). Policy interventions reduce the emission level in In the following sections, a detailed overview 2030 to -99.9 Mt CO2eq (under the conditional of sectoral emission and mitigation profiles will pathway) which turns the entire sector into a Table 2: Sectoral emissions in the business-as-usual/BAU and mitigation potentials by sector and conditionality Sector BAU emission Unconditional Conditional mitigation projection (Mt CO2eq) mitigation potential potential (incl. unconditional) (Mt CO2eq) (Mt CO2eq) 2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030 Industry 12.7 26.1 -0.2 -1.2 2.5 3.5 Energy 14.4 20.0 1.7 5.1 4.0 10.5 LUCF 133.8 140.2 21.2 48.4 112.3 240.1 Livestock 169.5 194.8 0.8 1.8 6.7 14.8 Managed Soils 8.1 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 Waste 10.3 11.5 0.9 2.0 4.3 8.6 TOTAL (Mt CO2eq) 348.8 403.5 24.5 56.2 129.9 277.7 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 11 significant GHG sink (Table 1 & Table 3). This hectares (ha) as a long-term forestry sector goal, equals a relative reduction of emissions of 171% based on Ethiopia´s Forest Sector Development (-240.1 Mt CO2eq) compared to BAU emissions Plan, the Green Legacy Initiative and Reducing in LUCF by 2030. The unconditional pathway Emissions from Deforestation and Forest foresees a reduction of emission levels to 91.8 Degradation (REDD+) strategic actions. Realizing Mt CO2eq, which represents a relative reduction this ambitious plan will increase forest cover to of 34.6% of sectoral BAU emissions in 2030 30% of the national territory by 2030. The other (-48.4 Mt CO2eq) (Table 2). most important driver of LUCF emissions is biomass energy use for cooking and baking which The potential for net emission removals in LUCF according to international inventory guidelines can be realized through massive reforestation are accounted under LUCF. Thus, replacing and restoration of a total of up to 15 million or improving household biomass energy use Table 3: Policy interventions in LUCF Policy intervention Indicator (unit) Lead institution/s (responsible) Sustainable agriculture Hectares of agricultural land Ministry of  Increasing the share of agricultural land under under sustainable management Agriculture (MoA) sustainable management practices practices (ha)  Reducing pre-harvest losses and land converted for agricultural infrastructure Grassland improvement Hectares of grassland Ministry of  Carbon sequestration through grassland improved (ha) Agriculture (MoA) improvement  Lowlands Livelihoods Resilience Project Reducing residential biomass use Energy demand shifted (TJ) EFCCC  Fuel switch: shift from unsustainable biomass Number of improved cookstoves Ministry of Water, energy demand to electric stoves, renewable distributed and used (Received by Irrigation and biofuels (e.g. residues) women/men) Electricity  Biomass efficiency: improved cookstoves Biomass use per household (Tons) (female-headed/male-headed) Reforestation Area reforested/afforested (ha) EFCCC  Reforestation 3 million ha of land by 2030 Share of forest area of total land (conditional pathway) area (%)  20% moist Afromontane, 60% dry Afromontane, 10% Acacia-Commiphora, 10% Combretum-Terminalia) Restoration Area restored (ha) EFCCC  Restoration of 5 million ha of land by 2030 and Share of forest area of total land 9 million Ha by 2050 (conditional pathway) area (%)  10% moist Afromontane, 60% dry Afromontane, 10% Acacia-Commiphora, 20% Combretum-Terminalia) 12 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION for cooking and baking leads to substantively (e.g., revised emission factors) significantly reduced pressure on forestry resources. All in all, elevate BAU emissions of this sector compared the following table portrays the policy options of to the first NDC. The sector has relative reduction the sector in coming ten years. of emissions of 7.6% (-14.8 Mt CO2eq) compared to BAU emissions in 2030. The unconditional pathway foresees a reduction of emission levels

4.3 Livestock sector to 193 Mt CO2eq, which represents a relative The livestock sector exhibits the second most reduction of 0.92% of sectoral BAU emissions in important mitigation abatements. It is also one 2030 (-1/8 Mt CO2eq) (Table 2). of the most significant contributors to emission It is a vivid fact that the emission reductions in source under BAU assumptions contributing the livestock sector are to be achieved through nearly 45% of total base year emissions in 2010 packages of policy interventions combining and almost half of the total BAU emissions in mitigation, efficiency gains and output growth in 2030. Given the economic importance and plans the sector. In this regard, sector-specific strategies for a strong expansion of the sector, emission as well as national development plans have levied reductions are most visible in improved emission huge weight to the sector in a bid to reduce intensities of livestock production. emission in the country. Thus, Livestock Master Policy interventions in this sector will reduce Plan (LMP), the 10YDP, and the CRGE strategy, the emission level in 2030 to 180 Mt CO2eq have identified optimal policy interventions in the in the conditional pathway. This new estimate sector. Table 6 depicts the envisioned policies of of current and projected heads of livestock in the sector in the coming years emanating from the country as well as other key parameters these policy documents. Table 4: Policy interventions in the livestock sector Policy intervention Indicator (unit) Lead institution/s (responsible) Dairy, red meat and poultry intervention Number of improved cows Ministry of packages (Owned by women/men) Agriculture (MoA)  Enhancing efficiency and productivity in GHG intensity of agricultural GDP livestock subsectors Agricultural mechanisation Number of heads of livestock Ministry of  Replacing cattle/oxen with tractors for farmers reduced (Received by women/ Agriculture (MoA) and smallholders men) Number of tractors distributed Increase in the share of poultry Number of non-dairy cattle Ministry of  Replacing non-dairy cattle stock with chickens replaced (Owned by women/ Agriculture (MoA) (supply side) and inducing a demand shift men) from beef to chicken Oilseed feeding Improved feeding deployed Ministry of  Improved feeding to reduce emissions from (Tons) Agriculture (MoA) enteric fermentation UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 13

4.4 Energy sector to 15 Mt CO2eq, which represents a relative reduction of 25.5% of sectoral BAU emissions in The energy sector has huge mitigation potential 2030 (-5.1 Mt CO2eq) (Table 2). in the updated NDC next to livestock and LUCF. The lion’s share of the grid-connected electricity Policy interventions in the energy sector target generation comes from renewable sources. energy consumed by all sectors (Table 5). Moreover, the contribution from reducing Investments in the transport sector can contribute biomass energy emissions has been already to reducing the demand for petroleum through accounted for under the LUCF sector (Table 1). leapfrogging to green mobility solutions, including The energy sector contributes 5% of total BAU e-mobility, railways and non-motorized transport. emissions in 2030. Policy interventions in this This mitigation contribution does not yet include sector will also reduce the emission level in 2030 clean energy exports to neighboring countries, to 9.5 Mt CO2eq in the conditional pathway. This which are projected to reach more than 5,000 equals a relative reduction of emissions of 52.5% MW/year once the Great Ethiopian Renaissance (-10.5 Mt CO2eq) compared to BAU emissions in Dam is connected to the grid. This could represent the energy sector (Table 2). The unconditional an additional significant mitigation potential of pathway foresees a reduction of emission levels several Mt CO2eq per year. Table 5: Policy interventions in the energy sector Policy intervention Indicator (unit) Lead institution/s (responsible) Energy efficiency Efficiency parameters, e.g., Ministry of Water,  Economy-wide improvements of energy efficiency of appliances and Irrigation and efficiency of appliances, machinery and other buildings (in %) Electricity (MoWIE) capital assets Transport electrification Energy demand shifted (TJ) Ministry of  Shifting transport energy demand from Share of electric vehicles over Transport (MoT) petroleum to electricity total fleet (%)  Increasing the share of electric vehicles Public transport Energy demand shifted (TJ) Ministry of  Shifting transport energy demand from Passenger distance travelled in Transport (MoT) petroleum to electricity public transport (km) (By women/  Increasing the share of public transport, men) including railways Share of passenger kilometres travelled in public transport over total passenger kilometres travelled (%) Industry fuel switches Energy demand shifted (TJ) by Ministry of Trade  Fuel switch 1: shift from industrial petroleum type of fuel switch and Industry; demand to electricity Ministry of Water, Irrigation and  Fuel switch 2: shift from industrial petroleum Electricity (MoWIE) demand to sustainable biomass 14 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

4.5 Waste sector the emission from the sector in the coming years. Cognizant to this, commensurate interventions The waste sector accounts for relevant have been proposed to reduce emission coming emission sources with emissions emanating from the sector in the coming years. These from municipal solid waste (MSW) generation, interventions will reduce emission levels to 22.6 decomposition of organic components of Mt CO2eq in 2030 in the conditional pathway waste on landfills, wastewater as well as from (Table 1). This equals to a relative reduction of solid waste incineration. Mitigation action in the emissions of 13.4% (-3.5 Mt CO2eq) compared waste sector has a significant potential to reduce to BAU emissions. The unconditional pathway emissions. The sector contributes 3% of total BAU projects a reduction of emission levels to 27.3 emissions in 2030. Despite small contributions Mt CO2 (Table 2). Interventions will reduce to total BAU emissions, policy interventions in emission levels to 22.6 Mt CO2eq in 2030 in the sector can be highly effective. Conditional the conditional pathway (Table 1). This equals interventions can reduce the emission level in a relative reduction of emissions of 13.4% 2030 to 2.9 Mt CO2eq. This equals a relative (-3.5 Mt CO2eq) compared to BAU emissions. reduction of emissions of 74.7% (-8.6 Mt CO2eq) The unconditional pathway projects a reduction compared to BAU emissions in the waste sector. of emission levels to 27.3 Mt CO2 (Table 2). The unconditional pathway projects a reduction of emission levels to 9.5 Mt CO2eq, which Most of the industries in Ethiopia are small and represents a relative reduction of 17.1% of micro such that they don’t emit much GHG. sectoral BAU emissions in 2030 (-2.0 Mt CO2eq) The cement sub sector is the major source of (Table 2). The envisioned policy interventions process-related emissions in the sector. Apart are depicted in Table 6. from this, Ethiopia plans in producing fertilizer which will increase GHG emission in the coming ten years. Cognizant to this, the principal policy

4.6 Industry sector to mitigate process-related emissions in the The share of manufacturing industry has been cement sector is clinker substitution while increasing over the recent past years and the saving from increased nitrogen use efficiency. 10YDP portrayed that its share will reach as high A shift away from synthetic fertilizer will be the as 17.2% of GDP by 2030. This in turn increases prime mitigation strategy for the fertilizer sector. Table 6: Policy intervention in the waste sector Policy intervention Indicator (unit) Lead institution/s (responsible) Waste management Rate of waste generation (Ton/c) Ministry of Urban  Reducing emissions from reduced waste Share of organic material per ton Development and generation rate per capita of waste on landfills (%) Construction  Reducing emissions by aggressively diverting Number of wastewater treatment Ministry of Water, organic materials from landfills, i.e. waste plants constructed Irrigation and separation and composting Electricity (MoWIE)  Reducing emissions from wastewater UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 15 Table 7: Policy intervention in the industry sector Policy intervention Indicator (unit) Lead institution/s (responsible) Clinker substitution Share of clinker in cement (%) Ministry of trade  Replacing clinker in cement with adequate and Industry and available materials without compromising cement properties Cognizant to this, the principal policy to mitigate urine and dung. Thus, the sector is directly linked to process-related emissions in the cement sector is the livestock sector which comprises all emission- clinker substitution while saving from increased nitrogen relevant policy interventions. Managed soils are use efficiency (Table 7). represented as a separate sector to distinguish between livestock and crop production, and to

4.7 Managed soils sector align with IPCC guidance. While livestock-related agriculture represents 48% of BAU emissions in The main drivers of emissions from managed soils 2030, GHG emissions from crop production on are linked to fertilizers, crop residues, as well as managed soils contribute 3%. 16 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 5. NDC Climate Change Adaptation Contribution Ethiopia has been putting in place various outlined in the NAP with actions, categorized into policy actions that enhance the implementation short term priorities (such as capacity building, of climate change adaptation over the last strengthening the enabling environment, and decade. Core policy and institutional measures promoting research) for the 2020-2022 period, have been materialized by mainstreaming and long-term priorities (with sector-specific climate change adaptation into national activities) for the 2025-2030 period. and sectoral plans with an emphasis on With the addition of the long-term priorities implementing identified adaptation options from the NAP Implementation Roadmap, the across selected sectors. number of potential adaptation commitments to Given that the vulnerability of the country and less consider for inclusion in the NDC totals 52. While adaptative capacity to absorb external shocks the selection of 18 adaptation options under emanated from the devasting effects of climate the NAP and the numerous adaptation actions change and variability including hazards such as under the Implementation Roadmap already drought and floods, the government of Ethiopia reflect a lengthy, rigorous, and officially endorsed has made Adaptation a priority. Within this prioritization process that entailed in-depth context, prioritization of adaptation interventions stakeholder participation (as detailed in the NAP’s becomes a powerful approach to ensure the methodology), and was informed by an extremely effective and efficient utilization of the scarce broad range of national, sectoral, and technical resources available. studies (as noted in the NAP Implementation Roadmap methodology), attempts were made Whilst Ethiopia’s initial national climate to further prioritize sub-set of interventions in the change strategy- the CRGE Strategy- did not updated NDC. sufficiently contain adaptation and resilience, several sectors have affirmed the importance of Prioritization criteria were developed to select building adaptive capacity and reducing their the optimal interventions (from within the NAP’s vulnerability as adaptation interventions under adaptation options and the NAP Implementation consideration grew substantially. Most recently, Roadmap’s supplementary adaptation actions). Ethiopia’s NAP formulated in 2017, spanning the The internationally recognized and widely used agriculture, forestry, health, transport, energy PESTLE framework (an analytical framework for (power), industry, water, and urban sectors re- multi-criteria decision-making) was applied with affirmed this importance. Furthermore, the NAP each of the PESTLE categories-Political, Economic Implementation Roadmap expanded the options (and Financial), Social, Technological, Legal (and UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 17 Institutional), and Environmental-defined with adaptation actions represent the bulk of the four relevant criteria. updated NDC’s commitments for strengthening Ethiopia’s resilience to climate change. Ethiopia In using the prioritization criteria to evaluate has already undertaken important adaptation each adaptation option (from the NAP) and efforts in these sectors, and will further expand each long-term adaptation action (from the and prioritize measures such as climate- NAP Implementation Roadmap), 20 steps were smart agriculture; livestock diversification; taken for each of the 52 interventions screened, drought-resistant animal breeding; rangeland ranging from cross-referencing with the 10 YDP; management; improved drought-resistant NAP-ETH; relevant sectoral climate resilience or crop varieties; crop and livestock insurance; adaptation strategy; the NAP Implementation watershed management and rehabilitation; Roadmap to aligning with the Sendai Framework ecosystem-based adaptation; sustainable for Disaster Risk Reduction and African Union’s forest management; community-based forest Agenda 2063, and the AU’s draft strategy on management and conservation; as well as climate change 2015. afforestation and reforestation programmes. Across all these activities, a gender-responsive Prioritized Adaptation approach will be adopted and vulnerable groups measures and communities will be considered to ensure equity in sharing benefits that arise thereof the As captured in Annex 2 below, Ethiopia’s major efforts. Together with these initiatives, efforts climate change adaptation commitments are in will be made to diversify adaptive livelihood the sectors of agriculture, land use and forestry, alternatives that enhance households’ resilience with additional adaptation contributions in water, to climate shocks in a manner that the livelihood health, energy, transport, and urban settlements. options are friendly co-exist with the natural Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU) ecosystem. Figure 5: Number of adaptation interventions per sector Health 6 Agriculture 8 Forestry 8 Land use & NRM Water 5 Energy Transport 2 Urban 1 5 3 Climate Services & DRR 2 18 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION The updated NDC has identified 40 adaptation Adaptation interventions in the Agriculture, interventions with a clear demarcation between Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector unconditional and conditional, covering sectors will be complemented with strategic adaptation such as Agriculture, Forestry, Water, Transport, actions in other economic sectors such as Urban, Health, Land Use and Natural Resource water (improving resilience of water sources Management, and Climate services and disaster and access to potable water), energy (energy risk reduction sectors (Figure 5). This includes diversity through alternatives and renewables), mitigation interventions that have adaptation transport (climate resilient design of sustainable co-benefits and vice versa. Besides, a quantified transportation systems, integrating climate change baseline (2018) and 2030 target for each into transportation planning and development), adaptation intervention has been identified urban settlements (urban greenery, adaptive for guidance on implementation and urban planning), health (integrated environment monitoring of the updated NDC. To enhance and health surveillance protocols, improvement inclusiveness of the adaptation interventions, in basic health services and emergency medical gender considerations and other cross-cutting services), and disaster risk reduction (improvement issues have been sufficiently entertained in in early warning systems, improvement in disaster this NDC. risk planning and preparedness). UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 19 6. Mitigation Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV), and Adaptation Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) The MRV and M&E framework for Ethiopia’s accounting for market mechanisms, as well as updated NDC will work towards full alignment provide information on sustainable development with Articles 4 (Mitigation), 6 (Cooperative promotion, environmental integrity, and Approaches), Article 7 (Adaptation) and 13 transparency. To this end, the NDC MRV and M&E (Enhanced Transparency Framework) under framework will eventually be fully integrated the Paris Agreement. Article 13 specifies with the 10YDP targets and indicators for each elements of reporting in Biannual Transparency sector as shown in Figure 6 below. Therefore, Report (BTR), with further flexibility for LDCs the international support is critical in building (“trifurcation”). While LDCs like Ethiopia can capacity for stakeholders who will undertake report “at their discretion”, Ethiopia is working the tracking, collection, and reporting of data, towards meeting international best practices as MRV and M&E systems are prerequisite for to demonstrate a high degree of ambition and successful implementation of this NDC including climate policy leadership. Ethiopia will therefore reporting to the global community (including also comply with mandatory reporting and UNFCCC and other key partners). Figure 6: NDC-specific MRV and M&E framework 10 YDP Sectoral targets and indicators Planning and Development Commission (PDC) Nationally Determined National Inventory Report Contribution Based on data MRV/M&E of from national NDC targets inventory Biennial Transparency Report and indicators report Annual Emission Balance Corresponding Adjustments, based on ITMO tracking tool (registry) Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Commission (EFCCC) UNFCCC 20 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 7. Means of Implementation

7.1 Conditional and mitigation and adaption actions from domestic Unconditional Financing Needs sources, which is equivalent to an average annual investment of USD 6.32 billion by 2030. As shown in Figure 7, the financial resources The conditional finance, which is equivalent required to implement the updated NDC in the to US$252.8 billion, should be received from next 10 years is estimated as USD 316 billion. international climate finance sources (Figure 8). The mitigation interventions identified in the updated NDC require USD 275.5 billion and adaptation actions require USD 40.5 billion. 7.2 Capacity building and The financial estimates are derived from climate technology transfer resilience plans of sectors and Ethiopia’s Ten Beyond climate finance, significant level of Years Development Plan, which aims to build a ambition put forward by this NDC will also require climate resilient green economy by 2030. a commensurate level of capacity building Alike the GHG emission reduction targeting, 20% and technology transfer. Ethiopia has shown of the total estimated finance is unconditional particularly high ambition both in mitigation and while 80% is conditional. Ethiopia is committed adaption across various sectors, with a particular to invest USD 63.2 billion on climate change emphasis on forestry, agriculture, energy, Figure 7: Financing needs to implement this NDC Mitigation + Mitigation Adaptation Adaptation = US$ 275.5 billion US$ 40.5 billion US$ 316 billion UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 21 Figure 8: Breakdown of conditional and unconditional financing 20% 80% Of the total financing needs is Of the total financing needs is Conditional=$252.8 Billion Unconditional=$63.2 Billion Depending on International Raised Domestically Climate Finance industry, and disaster risk reduction. In order to Ethiopia also seeks support on capacity building fully implement the mitigation and adaptation and technology transfer, among others, in the interventions proposed under the updated NDC, following areas:  Strengthen MRV system and its institutional setup with adequate infrastructure and human resources: This requires adequate staff levels with the required skill and knowledge, and institutional capacity to enhance the coordination of entities relevant for tracking the progress of NDC implementation and producing periodic reports.  Put in place a public expenditure review framework across all government institutions at all levels that enable disaggregation of distinct budgetary flows and allocations.  Integration of MRV/M&E with general national statistical data management system.  Enhance accessibility and availability of data through the state-of-the art technology  Strengthen the coordination among sectors and regional counterparts to ensure better implementation, monitoring and evaluation of NDC.  Catalyze technology transfer including clean cement production, early warning systems, sustainable catchment and land use management.

7.3 Policy Mechanisms and commitment of the country to build CRGE has Institutional Arrangements been furthered manifested by the fact that key climate related mitigation and adaptation 7.3.1 10-Year Development Plan indicators have been included in the key performance indicators of the plan at sector Building a Climate Resilient Green Economy is level. The inclusion of such climate indicators one of the strategic pillars of the 10YDP. The 22 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION into the KPI has its own importance. In addition in PA-backed carbon markets based on to tracking the implementation of NDC, it also environmental integrity, robust accounting, and paves the way to enrich the database of climate the promotion of sustainable development. related intervention. This is because the inclusion Ethiopia has gained experience in participating of more climate indicators necessitates more in relevant carbon market initiatives (such as baseline data that would trigger sectors and other the Kyoto Protocol’s (KP’s) Clean Development responsible stakeholders to garner more data to Mechanism (CDM), voluntary carbon standards, track the progress of the NDC implementation. as well as emerging multilateral and bilateral These would then help the upcoming NDC approaches and is looking to develop its own and other plans of the country to be based on domestic carbon market. However, the country adequate data and concrete information. This has not been effective in hosting carbon market will also facilitate a linked but dedicated and mechanisms relative to the mitigation potential robust measurement and reporting system for and ambition set by CRGE and the NDC. the NDC. It further allows the prevalence of valid reporting which will also aid the flow of climate Ethiopia intends to address this prevailing finance. Dedicated climate change interventions, gap by engaging in emerging international as well as all other interventions with climate carbon markets governed by Article 6 of the PA. change co-benefits will be designed to respond Ethiopia sees carbon markets as instruments to clear climate change baselines and targets. to increase mitigation ambition and places This will help maximize future opportunities to high importance on environmental integrity reduce GHG emissions or reduce vulnerability through robust accounting as well as the associated with all government development promotion of sustainable development. To this programs. end, the following activities will be undertaken as part of developing Ethiopia’s carbon market opportunities:

7.3.2 Working with the Private Sector  Identification of additional mitigation The CRGE Facility’s technical unit (at the EFCCC) potential that is eligible to receive domestic will establish a private sector liaison office (or and international supports through carbon officer) to ensure the actively engagement of markets for updated NDC priority sectors the private sector on both resource mobilization and interventions. as well as for technical partnerships in implementation of the NDC. This position,  Cooperating with interested Parties and including its functions and mandate, could be proactively working towards bilateral created and brought into effect by 2021. The agreements as well as engaging in new EFCCC should be accountable for monitoring multilateral mechanisms. the results of the office.  Development of institutional capacity, procedures and required support tools to comply with all PA rulebook participation,

7.4 Carbon Markets accounting and reporting requirements. Ethiopia has expressed a strong desire to This includes developing a registry participate in carbon market opportunities database based on registry requirements offered through the PA. Ethiopia’s first NDC in bilateral Article 6 cooperation as well as included has indicated an interest to participate development of procedures to effectively UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 23 approve activities, authorize ITMO be explored for their potential to support transfers, implement carbon accounting implementation of the NDC. and perform Article 6 reporting  Participation in experience-sharing and responsibilities. exchanges among peers to draw lessons  Further carbon market instruments beyond and insights from each other while building the PA, including the International Civil readiness for mobilizing carbon and climate Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) CORSIA will finance. 24 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Annex 1 Information to Facilitate Clarity, Transparency and Understanding (ICTU) of Ethiopia’s NDC Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC 1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year) a. Reference year(s), base year(s), reference Updated base year is 2010. The reference year is period(s) or other starting point(s) 2020. The reference period is 2020-2030. The year for the Business as Usual (BAU) projection is 2030 b. Quantifiable information on the reference The quantification of the reference indicator will indicators, their values in the reference year(s), be reported in Ethiopia’s Biennial Transparency base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting Report and may be updated due to methodological point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year improvements to the GHG inventory c. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Not applicable Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of Nationally Determined Contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information d. Target relative to the reference indicator, At least a 68.8% reduction in economy wide expressed numerically, for example in percentage emissions by 2030 against the BAU projection or amount of reduction e. Information on sources of data used in quantifying  Modelling the projections (BAU and target the reference point(s) reductions) was based on an economy wider integrated assessment model (the Green Economy Model) prepared for the Government of Ethiopia  Ethiopia’s GHG inventories  Data from sector ministries and relevant agencies  Energy data from International Energy Agency (IEA)  Economic projections from national and international data sources  Population projections from United Nations Population Division UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 25 Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC f. Information on the circumstances under which The national total GHG emission for 2020 may be the Party may update the values of the reference updated in line with methodological improvements indicators as they arise 2. Timeframes and/or periods for implementation a. Time frame and/or period for implementation, 1st January 2021 to 31st December 2030 including start and end date, consistent with Interim reporting in 2025 any further relevant decision adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) b. Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as Single year target, 2030 applicable 3. Scope and coverage a. General description of the target The combined mitigation target (unconditional and conditional elements) corresponds to a reduction of 68.8% compared to the BAU projection by 2030. The unconditional component foresees emission reductions of 14% and the conditional component contributes to approximately 54.8% compared to the BAU projection by 2030 b. Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered The key sectors covered by this NDC are the by the Nationally Determined Contribution, following: including, as applicable, consistent with  Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines  Industry  Energy  Livestock  Managed soils  Waste Greenhouse Gases include:  Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) c. How the Party has taken into consideration All major sources of GHG emissions in the GHG paragraph 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21 inventory have already been covered in this NDC Para. 31(c) “Parties strive to include all categories update, including land use change and forestry. of anthropogenic emissions or removals in their Since Ethiopia is an LDC, remaining gaps result from Nationally Determined Contributions and, once lack of reliable data a source, sink or activity is included, continue to include it” Para. 31(d) “Parties shall provide an explanation of why any categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals are excluded” 26 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC d. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Mitigation co-benefits associated with adaptation Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic actions will be included. Some of the adaptation diversification plans, including description of actions with the greatest mitigation co-benefit specific projects, measures and initiatives of potential includes the following: Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic  Improved rangeland management diversification plans  Strengthening sustainable natural resource management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds for enhanced climate resilience  Integrating climate change adaptation and expansion of agroforestry  Rehabilitation of degraded lands and restoration of degraded forestland through natural regeneration to enhance landscape-based climate resilience  Afforestation and reforestation of degraded lands through tree planting to restore forest ecosystems enhance for enhancing landscape- based climate resilience  Enhancing forest climate resilience through sustainable forest management  Implementing forest protection and health enhancements measures in natural forest ecosystems to enhance landscape-based climate resilience  Improving sustainable utilization of forest resources  Building sustainable transport systems for resilience through enhanced access to mobility  Improving provision and condition of housing for enhanced human safety against climatic stressors  Enhancing urban greenery for improved climate resilience 4. Planning Process a. Information on the planning processes that Ethiopia has endorsed a Climate Resilient Green the Party undertook to prepare its Nationally Economy (CRGE) strategy to build a green Determined Contribution and, if available, on and resilient economy since 2011. Apart from the Party’s implementation plans, including, as this, sectoral policies and strategies have been appropriate formulated to provide tailored and sector-specific strategic interventions. These include the Climate Resilience Strategy for Agriculture and Forestry (2015), the Climate Resilience Strategy for Energy and Water (2015), the Climate Resilient strategy for the Transport Sector (2015), the National Health Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (H-NAP, 2017) and the Climate Resilience Strategy for Urban Development and Housing (2017) UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 27 Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC The CRGE and sectoral policies and strategies formed the basis for Ethiopia in in its first NDC. It was also later mainstreamed into the second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTPII) for the 2015-2020 period for continuity This NDC has been developed in the context of the overarching CRGE pillar strategy and in light of the 10 years development plan. (2020-2030). The key targets and baseline indicators from the 10YDP have formed the basis for the baseline and targets for this updated NDC i. Domestic institutional arrangements, public The Environment, Forest, and Climate Change participation and engagement with local Commission (EFCCC) is the lead agency for the communities and indigenous peoples, in a coordination of Ethiopia’s response to climate gender-responsive manner change and is the National Focal Point to the UNFCCC. The EFCCC coordinates the country’s reporting to the UNFCCC, formulates environmental laws and standards, and develops, coordinates, and guarantees the implementation of sectoral programs and plans including the CRGE Strategy. The CRGE Facility comprising of the Ministry of Finance, responsible for financial aspects of CRGE implementation and M&E, and the EFCCC, responsible for technical elements and day-to-day administration, as well as developing guidance and rules for CRGE implementation, together play a pivotal role in implementation of climate change interventions, resource mobilization as well as monitoring and evaluation The 10YDP and the NDC are aligned and implementation of one will help secure the implementation of the other Public participation was integral to the preparation of the NDC and the10YDP upon which it is based. Consultations with line ministries and workshops with a wide range of sector representatives were held to agree on actions, indicators and targets. Consultation with non-state actors and donors were also held as part of finalising the NDC document ii. Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate a. National circumstances, such as geography, See section 2 and 2.1 above – More information can climate, economy, sustainable development be found in the new 10 Years Development Plan and poverty eradication (10 YDP) and Ethiopia’s 2nd Communication to the UNFCCC 28 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC b. Best practices and experience related The NDC preparation was undertaken though to the preparation of the Nationally participatory process with immense engagements Determined Contribution from the respective line ministries and stakeholders. Line ministries were engaged in the development process through a technical working group. The full alignment with the overall development planning cycle and the NDC reference period will ensure better coordination and effective implementation of Ethiopia’s climate priorities c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities Ethiopia has set an ambitious development acknowledged when joining the Paris trajectory that aims to reach - middle-income status Agreement through green economy pathways as set out in its national Climate Resilience and Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy d. Specific information applicable to Parties, Not applicable including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16–18, of the Paris Agreement e. How the Party’s preparation of its Nationally Not applicable since the Global Stock take has not Determined Contribution has been yet taken place informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement f. Each Party with a Nationally Determined Contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on the following: i. How the economic and social Not applicable consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the Nationally Determined Contribution ii. Specific projects, measures and activities Specific activities and associated indicators have to be implemented to contribute been identified for adaptation and mitigation in the to mitigation co-benefits, including 10YDP and the supporting technical documents information on adaptation plans that prepared as part of this NDC update initiative. also yield mitigation co- benefits, which On adaptation they cover the following: may cover, but are not limited to, key  Agriculture sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources,  Forestry human settlements and urban planning,  Water agriculture and forestry; and economic  Energy UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 29 Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC diversification actions, which may  Transport cover, but are not limited to, key  Urban sectors, such as energy resources,  Climate Services and Disaster Risk Reduction water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, On mitigation they cover: agriculture and forestry, and economic  Industry diversification actions, which may cover,  Energy but are not limited to, sectors such as  Land manufacturing and industry, energy and  Livestock mining, transport and communication,  Managed soils construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture, fisheries  Waste 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals a. Assumptions and methodological approaches GHG emission pathways were built on the Green used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse Economy Model, which is aligned with the IPCC gas emissions and removals corresponding to guidance as well as SNA 2008, as appropriate (IPCC the Party’s Nationally Determined Contribution, Guidelines 2006) consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA b. Assumptions and methodological approaches Not applicable used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the Nationally Determined Contribution c. If applicable, information on how the Party will take See 5. (d) into account existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement d. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for The NDC update builds on the 2006 IPCC estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories emissions and removals and 2013 IPCC Kyoto Protocol Supplement. Moreover, Ethiopia uses the Global Warming Potentials on a 100-year time scale according to the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report to calculate CO2 equivalents of GHG emissions e. Sector, category or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable i. Approach to addressing emissions If applicable, the approach will be in accordance and subsequent removals from natural with relevant IPCC Good Practice Guidance on LUCF disturbances on managed lands ii. Approach used to account for emissions and Harvested wood products are not included in the removals from harvested wood products emission calculations 30 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC iii. Approach used to address the effects of age- Not applicable class structure in forests; f. Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the Nationally Determined Contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including i. How the reference indicators, baseline(s) The projected BAU, unconditional and conditional and/or reference level(s), including, where GHG emission pathways and resulting 2025 and applicable, sector-, category- or activity- 2030 targets have been simulated with the Green specific reference levels, are constructed, Economy Model. The Green Economy Model has including, for example, key parameters, been developed in accordance with IPCC 2006 assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data guidelines for GHG inventories; consistent with sources and models used decision 18/CMA.1 ii. For Parties with Nationally Determined Not applicable Contributions that contain non-greenhouse- gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable iii. For climate forcers included in Nationally Not applicable Determined Contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated iv. Further technical information, as necessary Not applicable g. The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Ethiopia expresses a strong interest for voluntary Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable cooperation in emerging international carbon markets governed by Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Ethiopia sees carbon markets as instruments to increase mitigation ambition and places high importance on environmental integrity through robust accounting as well as the promotion of sustainable development. Ethiopia therefore invites interested Parties to explore engaging in cooperative approaches 6. How the Party considers that its Nationally Determined Contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances a. How the Party considers that its Nationally Ethiopia strongly believes that current and historical Determined Contribution is fair and ambitious in responsibilities for GHG emissions as well as the the light of its national circumstances capabilities to mitigate them are key considerations in determining fairness and ambition. Even though Ethiopia has been responsible for only 0.04% of global emissions, the country is highly vulnerable to climate impacts that threaten its sustainable development. Despite these challenges Ethiopia has set an ambitious target for reducing its emissions, with a significant unconditional contribution, in order to contribute to the global effort to keep temperature increase below 1.5°C UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 31 Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030 Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC b. Fairness considerations, including reflecting on Ethiopia considers its ambitious NDC to be fair in equity terms of meeting the long-term goal set by the Paris Agreement, in particular in light of her LDC status and multiple development challenges resulting from climate vulnerability c. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph Through this update, Ethiopia has increased the 3, of the Paris Agreement ambition of its NDC in the following ways:  Higher robustness of GHG emissions pathways and targets through improved methodologies for capturing historical emissions and improved consistency with IPCC-2006 guidelines  This update builds on the first NDC, but for the first time, proposes an emission reduction target in the conditional scenario that is significantly lower than historical base year emissions (2010)  Clear demarcation between unconditional and conditional mitigation interventions, with a meaningful domestic contribution  Commitment to explore further ambition increases during the NDC commitment period.  Better flexibility and adaptability of the methodology employed (Green Economy Model) used to prepare the emission pathways to potential future changes of emission sources or mitigation actions  An enhanced ability to track progress on mitigation actions with improved MRV/M&E d. How the Party has addressed Article 4, Ethiopia’s NDC covers the whole economy paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement e. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph This NDC update covers major sources of emissions, 6, of the Paris Agreement but also considers national circumstances. The preparation of Long-Term Low emission development strategy is underway 7. How the Nationally Determined Contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 a. How the Nationally Determined Contribution As explained under 6a above, this NDC contributes contributes towards achieving the objective of the towards the objective and long-term goal of the Convention as set out in its article 2 Paris Agreement. It includes actions to address the mitigation of its GHG emissions as well as adaptation of the country to climate change. Ethiopia is committed to deploying domestic resources to this NDC, but as a highly indebted LDC is also reliant on international flows of finance to meet its ambitious targets b. How the Nationally Determined Contribution See 6a and 7a contributes towards Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement 32 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Annex 2 Adaptation Actions Adaptation Intervention Indicator(s)2 Baseline (2018) 2030 Target (Commitment) Sector: Agriculture  Enhance food security Productivity of rain fed 28.9 quintals3/Ha 45.9 quintals/Ha by improving agricultural crop land (based on productivity in a average for teff, wheat, climate-smart manner barley and corn) (promote yield increasing Area under irrigation 62,050 Ha* 225,913 Ha* techniques) (based on corn, wheat, tomatoes and onions)*4 Crop production through 8 million quintals* 38 million quintals* irrigation* Diversify livestock and Productivity of poultry Specialized poultry Specialized poultry animal mix, including and small ruminants commercial – 33,100 Tons commercial – 80,900 Tons promotion of poultry and (Tons) Household – 13,200 Tons Household – 16,200 Tons small ruminants Sheep – 66,000 Tons Sheep – 324,000 Tons Goat – 44,000 Tons Goat – 282,000 Tons Percentage of improved Dairy – 2.7%* Dairy 17%* livestock number (dairy) Enhanced climate Percentage of Dairy – 11% Dairy – 42% resilience in livestock coverage of animal health Beef – 7%, Beef – 28% services Small ruminants – 7% Small ruminants – 28% Prevent and control the Percentage reduction of To be established 30% reduction from spread of climate-driven crop and animal disease 2022/2023 baseline (to vector-borne diseases cases be established) 2 There is a need to refine definitions of climate indicators Vs development indicators in the next 5 years for clearer distinction of climate and development actions. 3 Quintal = a unit of weight equal to 100 kg. 4 Represents indicator, baseline (2020) and target (2030) figures obtained from Ethiopia’s 10YDP; other targets and baseline are from sectors. UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 33 Adaptation Intervention Indicator(s)2 Baseline (2018) 2030 Target (Commitment) Improve rangeland Percentage of improved Local dairy – 77% Local Dairy – 100% and pasture-land content in dry feed Cross-breed – 41% Cross-breed – 100% management Exotic – 33% Exotic – 100% diversification, including selection of drought- resistant animal breeds Expand the use of Improved seed Teff – 31,000 Ha Teff – 100,000 Ha improved crop varieties coverage (Ha) Barley – 70,000 Ha Barley – 193,000 Ha with climate resilient Wheat – 413,000 Ha Wheat – 673,000 Ha characteristics Corn – 438,000 Ha Corn – 823,000 Ha Strengthen crop disease Vulnerable districts Indeterminate All districts nationally and pest monitoring covered by such systems in vulnerable monitoring systems areas Strengthen drought Number of farmers Indeterminate 30% increase from and crop insurance (gender disaggregated) 2022/2023 baseline mechanisms for climate covered by drought and (to be established) risk management crop insurance Sector: Forestry Restoration and Hectares reforested/ 2.6 million Ha 9 million Ha reforestation through restored (Ha) tree planting Increase national forest Percentage of National 15.5% 25-30% coverage forest coverage Enhance sustainable Area of natural forest 2 million Ha 4 million Ha forest management under sustainable forest management Improve sustainable Number of green jobs 0.2 million 5 million utilisation of forest created resources Export earnings from 41.4 million USD 221 million USD sustainable forest products Implement forest Area of forest protected - 17.2 million Ha protection and health from diseases, pests and enhancement measures fire in natural forest Proportion of federal To be established To be established ecosystems and regional institutions’ improved capacity for forest protection Sector: Land Use, and Natural Resources Management Enhance climate resilient Number of dependent 30,000 people 1.5 million people livelihoods of wildlife communities resource dependent benefiting from climate communities in resilient wildlife resources protected areas 34 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Adaptation Intervention Indicator(s)2 Baseline (2018) 2030 Target (Commitment) Enhance sustainable Number of PFM - To cover 10,000 natural resources associations vested with catchment areas* development, legal personality* management, and watershed protection Sector: Water  Integrated watershed Area under integrated 2.24 million Ha 10 million Ha development in watershed development million Ha Improve access to Potable water supply per 19.36 litres/capita/day Rural – 25 litres/capita/ potable water to capita day by 2025/within 1km strengthen community Urban – 50-100 litres/ climate resilience capita/day by 2025 Proportion in decreasing 19% 7% non-functionality rate of water schemes Percentage of decreasing 39% 20% water waste Water Supply for Indeterminate 100 woredas humans and animals in 100 isolated and drought- affected woredas Number of residents 3.5 million people 0* using fluoride contaminated water Expand the construction Number of ha under 0.49 million Ha 1.2 million Ha of medium and large- medium and large- scale irrigation systems scale irrigation schemes to enhance food security Percentage of improved 2% 20% irrigation technologies for medium and large- scale irrigation Percentage of water use 30% 50% efficiency in medium and large-scale irrigations Number of gender none 35.5 balanced Irrigation Water User Associations (IWUAS) Number of jobs - 930,000* created through expansion of irrigation network Number of persons To be established To be established acquired skills through tailored capacity building activities UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 35 Adaptation Intervention Indicator(s)2 Baseline (2018) 2030 Target (Commitment) Proportion of women To be established To be established shared development and management role in irrigation system Sector: Energy Increasing number Percentage of 39.91% 100% of households using households using renewable off-grid renewable off-grid energy sources for energy sources for lighting lighting (i.e. those not served by the grid) Percentage of population 11% 35% with stable access to electricity from alternative off-grid renewable energy (RE) technologies Number of unstable and 36 systems 0 unreliable diesel-based standalone generator systems Percentage of increased 9% 27% renewable energy contribution Percentage of reduced 19.60% 12.50% total electricity waste in transmission and distribution systems Percentage improvement none 36.10% in private sector contribution in energy generation and distribution Number of green jobs To be established To be established created in the Energy sector Number of capacity To be established To be established building interventions for actors across renewable energy value chain Percentage increase To be established To be established in women and youth participation in RE development and utilisation 36 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Adaptation Intervention Indicator(s)2 Baseline (2018) 2030 Target (Commitment) Sector: Transport  Build sustainable Length of non-motorised 26.5 Km 506 Km transport systems for transport infrastructure resilience through constructed enhanced access to Number of cities/ 2 69 mobility towns (above 50k residents) with dedicated non-motorised transport lanes (for bicycles) Increase climate resilient Number of major 1 9 designs and safety transport infrastructures standards for transport that take climate change systems into consideration Sector: Urban  Construct new sanitary Number of constructed 6 constructed sanitary 200 sanitary landfills landfill sites in cities/ landfill sites in climate landfills towns in climate resilient resilient locations locations Increase the climate Area of land covered by 159,263.16 Ha 30% of the land in 200 resilience of urban green infrastructure and cities/towns, equal to systems recreational areas (Ha) 5,308,772 Ha Improve provision and Percentage of urban Indeterminate 70% condition of housing for dwellers residing in safe enhanced human safety and adequate housing* against climatic stressors (gender disaggregated) Enhance urban greenery Urban green area per 0.41 m2 per urban Indeterminate for improved climate capita in m2 inhabitant resilience Undertake climate- Area of land covered by 159,263.16 Ha - adaptive urban planning green infrastructure and recreational areas (Ha) Number of land use plans Not available 4,000 Sector: Climate Services and Disaster Risk Reduction  Number of climate Number of climate 15 59 and early warning and early warning data produced and data analysed and disseminated/year disseminated/year Number of modern Number of modern 325 806 weather condition weather condition monitoring stations monitoring stations Enhancing climate Proportion of increase 0.75 0.85 service data reliability in climate service data reliability UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 37 Adaptation Intervention Indicator(s)2 Baseline (2018) 2030 Target (Commitment) Number of Eco- Number of Eco- 10* 55* Hydrology Demonstration Hydrology Demonstration Sites in all basins Sites in all basins* Modernise and update Modernise and update 16.66 99.7 the basin information the basin information system coverage system coverage Surface water resource Percentage of surface 78% 100% assessment coverage water resource assessment coverage Ground water resource Percentage of ground 17.95% 35% assessment coverage water resource assessment coverage Enhancing water quality Percentage of increase in Indeterminate 80% monitoring coverage water quality monitoring coverage Sector: Health Reduce Malaria case Percentage reduction of 26/1,000 in 2020 8/1,000 incidence Malaria case incidence Reduce cholera case Percentage reduction in Baseline in 2020 0 incidence Cholera case incidence Increase proportion Percentage of households 20% in 2020 60% of households with with improved toilets improved toilet Increase proportion of Proportion of households 70% in 2020 100% households with safe with safe water supply water supply Increase proportion Percentage of health care 16% in 2020 50% of health care facilities facilities with safe waste safely managing health management care waste Increase proportion Proportion of health 76% in 2020 100% of health facilities with facilities with safe energy safe energy sources sources (electricity, solar) 38 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION