Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy National Adaptation Plan

1. Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a climate-smart manner.

2. Improving access to potable water.

3. Strengthening sustainable natural resource management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds.

4. Improving soil and water harvesting and water retention mechanisms.

5. Improving human health systems through the implementation of changes based on an integrated health and environmental surveillance protocol. 6. Improving ecosystem resilience through conserving biodiversity.

7. Enhancing sustainable forest management. 8. Building social protection and livelihood options of vulnerable people.

9. Enhancing alternative and renewable power generation and management.

10. Increasing resilience of urban systems.

11. Building sustainable transport systems.

12. Developing adaptive industry systems.

13. Mainstreaming endogenous adaptation practices. 14. Developing efficient value chain and marketing systems.

15. Strengthening drought, livestock & crop insurance mechanisms.

16. Improving early warning systems.

17. Developing and using adaptation technologies.

18. Reinforcing adaptation research and development. ii Over time, Ethiopia aims to proactively and iteratively pursue further integration of climate change adaptation in development policies and strategies, including macroeconomic and sectoral policies and strategies at the national level, as well as Regional and Woreda plans and strategies. To achieve this, five strategic priorities have been identified:

1. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development policies, plans and strategies

2. Building long-term capacities of institutional structures involved in NAP-ETH

3. Implementing effective and sustainable funding mechanisms

4. Advancing adaptation research and development in the area of climate change adaptation

5. Improving the knowledge management system for NAP-ETH Realization of these strategic priorities is critical to enable effective implementation of the options identified above. At the highest level, oversight of NAP-ETH is the responsibility of an Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee, a Management Committee and the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MEFCC). For efficiency, financing and implementation of NAP-ETH will be led by the existing CRGE mechanisms, which are in place at national, regional and Woreda levels. However, some adjustments and investments will be required to ensure that the necessary personnel and capacity are in place for effective coordination and implementation of adaptation initiatives alongside existing structures focusing on mitigation. iii The estimated cost of implementing NAP-ETH over the next fifteen years is approximately US$ 6 billion per year. It is expected that these funds will be raised from a combination of financing sources, including public and private, as well as domestic and international sources. The NAP-ETH monitoring & evaluation (M&E) system will track progress and effectiveness in achieving the anticipated adaptation outcomes. Effectiveness will be assessed in terms of the contribution for reducing vulnerability, improving adaptive capacity and supporting the wellbeing of populations and ecosystems affected by the impacts of climate change. The M&E system will support adaptive management of the implementation process, linking to the M&E systems of the CRGE, GTP II and other relevant programs such as the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). All actors involved in implementing NAP-ETH activities will have monitoring responsibilities within their scope of operations. iv The preparation of NAP-ETH has been coordinated by MEFCC involving relevant government institutions, subject matter specialists, researchers and academicians. The NAP-ETH has been written through technical support provided by USAID-Ethiopia and United States Forest Service International Programs (USFS-IP) and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) v TERMS AND ACRONYMS BoFED Bureau of Finance and Economic Development CHRIPS Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data CIMP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CRGE Climate Resilient Green Economy CSA Central Statistics Agency CSO Civil Society Organization EDRI Ethiopian Development Research Institute EE Executing Entity EEFRI Ethiopian Environment and Forest Research Institute EIAR Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EPACC Ethiopian Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change EPCC Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change FIE Federal Implementing Entity GCF Green Climate Fund GEF Global Environment Fund GeoCLIM Climate Analysis software from the United States Geological Survey GHG Green House Gas GTP Growth and Transformation Plan ICT Internet Computer Technology IE Implementing Entity INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vi ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteoroloisch Instituut (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute) M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MEFCC Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change NAP National Adaptation Plan NAPA National Adaptation Plan of Action NDRMC National Disaster Risk Management Commission NGO Non-Governmental Organization NMA National Meteorological Agency (formerly the Nat. Met. Services Agency) NPC National Planning Commission PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty PMO Prime Minister‟s Office PSNP Productive Safety Net Program RCP Regional Climate Projection RIE Regional Implementing Entity SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SLMP Sustainable Land Management Program TEK Traditional Ecological Knowledge TNA Technology Needs Assessment TOR Terms of Reference UNDP United Nation Development Program UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene vii Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................... I TERMS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................ VI INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 PART I – PREPARATORY PHASE, DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ................................................................................................................ 6 1.1 PREPARING AND LAUNCHING THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (NAP- ETH) PROCESS ............................................................................................................... 6 1.2 IDENTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ................................................................................................................ 12 1.2.1. Identification of information available and needed capacities for the NAP-ETH formulation process ............................................................12 1.3 GAPS AND NEEDS OF THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NAP-ETH PROCESS ........................................................................................................................ 16 1.4 CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA .............................................. 20 1.4.1 Rainfall patterns, variability, trends and future projections ....20 1.4.2. Observed rainfall variability ...................................................................23 1.4.3. Observed rainfall trend .............................................................................23 1.4.4. Rainfall projections .....................................................................................27 1.4.5 Temperature climatology, trend and future projections............29 1.4.6. Observed temperature trend ..................................................................30 1.4.6 Projected temperatures over Ethiopia ................................................32 1.4.7. Observed climate extremes ......................................................................35 1.5 DEVELOPMENT NEEDS AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES .............................. 37 PART II: NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN OF ETHIOPIA (NAP-ETH) ................................................................................................................................45 VIII 2.1 VISION AND STRATEGIC GUIDELINES ................................................................ 45 2.1.1. NAP-ETH vision .............................................................................................45 2.1.2. Scope of NAP-ETH ........................................................................................45 2.1.3. Purpose of NAP-ETH ...................................................................................45 2.2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PATH ....................................................................... 46 2.3 GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE NAP-ETH ......................................................... 50 2.4 FEATURES OF THE NAP-ETH ........................................................................... 51 2.5 OBJECTIVES OF NAP............................................................................................ 52 2.6 ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND STRATEGIC PRIORITIES .................................... 53 2.6.1 NAP-ETH ADAPTATION OPTIONS ................................................55 2.6.2 STRATEGIC PRIORITIES.................................................................61 2.7 NAP-ETH COSTS................................................................................................. 63 2.8 INCORPORATING ADAPTATION INTO DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND STRATEGIES.................................................................................................................. 65 PART III: IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................68 3.1 INSTITUTIONAL GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURE TO IMPLEMENT THE NAP- ETH ............................................................................................................................... 68 3.1.2 Collaboration between the government and its partners ..........78 3.2 MOBILIZATION OF TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES ........................ 78 3.3 COMMUNICATION STRATEGY ............................................................................. 79 3.4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN .......................... 81 PART IV: MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE NAP-ETH .........90 4.1 OBJECTIVES AND SIGNIFICANCE OF NAP-ETH MONITORING AND EVALUATION ................................................................................................................. 90 4.2 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES IN M&E .......................................................... 91 4.3 RESOURCES AND CAPACITIES REQUIRED FOR MONITORING AND EVALUATION ...............................................................................................................102 4.4 MONITORING AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY .........................................103 IX 4.5 REVISION AND UPDATING PROCESS.................................................................104 4.6 EXTERNAL EVALUATION ...................................................................................105 REFERENCES AND SOURCES...................................................................... 107 List of figures Figure 1 - Rainfall regime of Ethiopia showing sample Woredas to demonstrate the rainfall regimes ................................................ 21 Figure 2 - Spatial Distribution of Mean Annual Rainfall in millimeters (1971-2000) ............................................................ 22 Figure 3- Annual and Belg rainfall coefficient of variation .............. 24 Figure 4 - Standardized annual rainfall anomaly - 1951-2010 in relation to 1961-1990 average. .................................................. 24 Figure 5 - Rainfall trend over Ethiopia (1981-2014) ......................... 26 Figure 6 - Change in average rainfall over the March-September season, comparing averages for 1997-2013 with 1981-1996 .... 26 Figure 7 - Percentage change in rainfall over Ethiopia under 3 regional climate scenarios for three future time periods relative to the baseline period (1975-2005) and mean rainfall for the three regional climate scenarios. ................................................ 28 Figure 8 - Mean Annual rainfall anomaly Observed and Projection in °C (1900-2100), Relative to 1886-2005 .................................... 29 X Figure 9 - Mean annual surface temperature in °C ............................ 30 Figure 10 - Inter-annual variation of the mean minimum (Left) and maximum temperature (Right) for Central Ethiopia (Top Row) and North Eastern Ethiopia (Bottom Row) ................................ 31 Figure 11 - Mean annual temperature trend in °C/Decade ............... 32 Figure 12- Change in annual mean temperature over Ethiopia under scenarios from the historical period (1975-2005) ...................... 34 Figure 13 - Mean Annual Temperature Observed and Projection in oC (1900-2100), relative to 1886-2005 ........................................... 35 Figure 14 - Number of Population Affected by Major Drought in Ethiopia ...................................................................................... 36 Figure 15 - Number of Population Affected by Flood in Ethiopia .... 37 Figure 16 - Co-implemented development programs/strategies and plans with the National Adaptation Plan Ethiopia (NAP-ETH) .................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 17 - NAP-ETH governance arrangements .............................. 77 XI List of tables Table 1 - Alignment of NAP-ETH with Ethiopia‟s established or ongoing development efforts ....................................................... 8 Table 2 - Summary of the NAP formulation approach ...................... 10 Table 3 - Information availability, status and contribution to NAP- ETH ............................................................................................ 13 Table 4 - Capacities gap analysis ....................................................... 17 Table 5 - Priority sectors vulnerable to climate change and its impacts .................................................................................................... 39 Table 6 – NAP-ETH – Strategic Implementation .............................. 85 Table 7 - Roles and responsibilities in monitoring, evaluation and reporting ..................................................................................... 92 Table 8 - M&E systems in Ethiopia that relate to the NAP M&E system ...................................................................................... 100 XII Table Annexes Annex 1 - Risks and Vulnerable sectors within each Region with their existing coping mechanisms……………………………... 111 Annex 2 - LFA for implementation of NAP-ETH ……………….119 Annex 3 - Template that will be used for regular reviews National Adaptation Plan ………………………...............................135 Annex 3.1 - National Adaptation Plan Outcome Monitoring …….139 Annex 3.2 - National Adaptation Plan impact monitoring………...143 Annex 3.3 - Summary of Prioritized Adaptation Options from All Regions……………………………………………………………147 XIII INTRODUCTION Ethiopia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and the unpredictability of climate variability. The country‟s adaptive capacity is constrained by limited livelihood options for the majority of the population, inadequate ability to withstand or absorb disasters and the prevailing biophysical shocks it faces. To address these challenges, there is a need for stronger climate change adaptation policies, programs and implementation capacity, across sectors, levels of intervention and actors (MoA 2015; MoWE 2015). The adaptive capacity of a country can be improved by integrating climate information into planning and decision-making for development interventions, and prioritizing a focus on climate resilience across policies and programs. Ethiopia is on a good track, registering consistent and fast economic growth; transforming the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors; developing infrastructure; and addressing the challenges of the vulnerable people. The enabling climate change policy environment supports these positive strides. Notably, the country has developed Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy and mainstreamed it into the second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTPII). Ethiopian government plans to move action on climate change adaptation forward by developing and implementing this National Adaptation Plan (NAP), in an effort to bring about transformational change in the country‟s capacity to address the impacts of climate change. The current efforts to develop this NAP are in compliance 1 with Ethiopia‟s obligations under the Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010)1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Framework recommended that countries formulate a NAP as a means of identifying medium and long-term adaptation needs and strategies, and mandate institutional responsibility for the effective implementation of NAP strategies and programs to address those needs. Prior to 2011 when the CRGE was adopted, Government efforts to address climate change adaptation included:  Ethiopia‟s National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA), which identified project with short to medium-term timeframes, for implementation at regional and sectoral levels;  Draft adaptation strategies for nine Regions and two city administrations;  Sector adaptation strategies; and  Ethiopia‟s Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change (EPACC)2, which outlined 20 prioritized climate change related impacts and the corresponding adaptation measures or 1 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=4 2 Ethiopia‟s Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change. Ministry of Environment and Forest, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. 2 responses, naming the federal level organization responsible for spearheading the implementation of the measures. The Government also outlined its commitment to climate change adaptation in its „Intended Nationally Determined Contribution‟ (INDC) submitted to the UNFCCC in June 2015. Unlike the other documents, Ethiopia‟s INDC summarized short to long-term programmatic efforts to address reduce vulnerability of livelihoods and landscapes to climate impacts, focusing on three key areas: droughts, floods and cross-cutting interventions. Despite being fragmented, the above-mentioned documents incorporate identified areas of climate change impacts, an analysis of vulnerability, adaptation options and prioritized measures including projects and actions, along with related implementation cost indicators, providing a good basis for further development of adaptation plans. During 2015, more comprehensive sector-based resilience/adaptation strategies were developed. These include climate resilience strategies for agriculture and forestry; water and energy; health, and transport. The later two adaptation strategies were draft documents yet to be finalized. These strategies each achieved three things: 1) They identified adaptation options in order to select the most promising programmatic options. 2) They appraised the options in terms of uncertainty and risk of future climate change in each sector. 3 3) They outlined options for building the costs of climate resilience measures into the current and future policy portfolio. Consequently, Ethiopia is well positioned to develop NAP-ETH having strong experience from experiences of NAPA, EPACC, regional and sectoral adaptation plans and most importantly the CRGE Strategy and the INDC3. However, the existing adaptation plans are each characterized by one or more of the following features: timeframe, region (location) and sector. Such a piecemeal approach, however expertly done, is limited in its ability to address trans- regional and multi-sectoral issues in a long-term timeframe. As a result, the synergy required for climate change adaptation at federal level cannot be met by the current sectoral and regional resilience strategies. Therefore, this NAP-ETH sets out to address these limitations through a programmatic, multi-sectoral and long-term planning approach. In addition, NAP-ETH aligns climate change centered adaptation initiatives with ongoing development endeavors, to obtain synergies and achieve the outcomes of enhancing adaptive capacity of government, local institutions and individual women and men who are directly affected by climate change impacts on their livelihoods and the landscapes in which they live. 3 INDC: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution is evolved to NDC: Nationally Determined Contribution 4 PART I 5 PART I – PREPARATORY PHASE, DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 1.1 PREPARING AND LAUNCHING THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (NAP-ETH) PROCESS For a country like Ethiopia, which is vulnerable to the climate change, it is imperative to implement coordinated adaptation measures. Ethiopia‟s commitment to create climate resilient development has been clearly articulated in its various plans and strategy documents, notably the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy. Most of these documents have outlined adaptation priorities and implementation plans in the contexts of regional and sectoral development. As noted above, the NAP-ETH is being developed in accordance with the Cancun Agreements under the UNFCCC (2010), which aim to enhance national and international action on adaptation. There are existing facilities and institutional capacities able to facilitate NAP-ETH. The country has acquired capacity to plan and implement adaptation actions and will continue to increase its overall adaptive capacity. Ethiopia‟s NAP initiation is part of its grand ambition of mainstreaming climate change mitigation and adaptation into its national development plans, in particular into its Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) NAP-ETH benefited from existing climate resilience strategies and adaptation plans to assemble the necessary information including climate data, vulnerability analysis, adaptation options, implementation approaches and monitoring and evaluation. NAP- 6 ETH is not a standalone plan. It intends to add value to the ongoing development efforts, which may not consciously incorporate responses to current and anticipated climate impacts. Experience has demonstrated that efforts aimed at ensuring food security, supporting livelihood improvement, enhancing infrastructural development, promoting technological advancement in climate sensitive sectors and improving market access for vulnerable people can increase human resilience to climate change, if adaptation is effectively integrated in these development initiatives (see Table 1). Furthermore, this document recognizes that some climate change mitigation activities among the many to which Ethiopia has made strong commitments can have adaptation co-benefits, if these are explicitly identified and pursued. 7 Table 1 - Alignment of NAP-ETH with Ethiopia’s established or ongoing development efforts Current and ongoing development efforts Aims and issues complimentary with NAP-ETH Social-economic rural safety net and basic risk Ensuring basic safety for vulnerable people in the face of management programs, e.g., Productive Safety Net shortage of basic needs, enhancing livelihood opportunities and Program (PSNP) developing disaster risk reduction capacities Sector development strategies and programs, e.g. Directing comprehensive changes in the development landscape for livestock with sector-specific and time-bound targets Natural resource and environment strategies and Ensuring natural resource conservation system informed by programs, e.g., Sustainable Land Management sustainability criteria program (SLMP) Research and development strategies and programs Supporting development oriented research and technology of permanent institutions, e.g., transfer mechanisms Ethiopian Environment and Forest Research Institute (EEFRI), Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) and 8 Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute (EBI) Education development strategies and programs at Producing a critical mass of experts in various fields that can all levels fulfill development aspiration of the country Global development agendas e.g. Sustainable Stay on course with global initiatives by adhering to the Development Goals (SDGs) implementation of the 17 SDG goals; exchange best practices with other similar countries and benefit from technological and financial resources thereof The NAP-ETH may prioritize adaptation in the sectors where the CRGE focuses. However, as the NAP-ETH focuses exclusively on adaptation, it will also provide targets and an implementation plan for other sectors that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The NAP formulation approach is designed to contribute to ongoing development initiatives and address the linkages between climate change, its impacts and relevant adaptation options (See Summary in Table 2). 9 Table 2 - Summary of the NAP formulation approach Phases of NAP-ETH Processes and steps Initiation and mandate setting  Establish high level inter-ministerial steering body to oversee the development of the NAP-ETH  Mandate MEFCC to coordinate, lead and monitor the development and implementation of the NAP-ETH at the national level  Assign multi-disciplinary technical team to develop and monitor the NAP-ETH Identification of inputs for NAP-  Review of climate change plans already devised for the CRGE sectors ETH process and by Ethiopia‟s Regions  Review other relevant documents, including the INDC (2015), Second National Communication (2015), EPACC (2010), NAPA (2008) Preparation phases  Identify relevant information, policy and strategy documents  Develop draft document involving relevant stakeholders  Organize consultations and targeted discussions involving staffs within 10 the MEFCC  Organize external consultation with all stakeholders including sectors, regions and relevant institutions and actors Implementation strategies  Develop guideline to mainstream adaptation in the national planning process and into sector and regional strategies and action plans  Identify adaptation finance mobilization approaches and strategies 11 1.2 IDENTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION The Ethiopian climate change program and strategy landscapes are informed by reliable data, information, knowledge and expertise that facilitate the formulation of adaptation plans. In addition to providing the contextual framework for climate change adaptation in the country, these are required inputs for preparing the NAP-ETH. 1.2.1. IDENTIFICATION OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE AND NEEDED CAPACITIES FOR THE NAP-ETH FORMULATION PROCESS The NAP-ETH formulation process identifies the available information to underpin an evaluation of the capacities needed to undertake comprehensive national adaptation strategies (See Table 3). 12 Table 3 - Information availability, status and contribution to NAP-ETH Available sources Status Information and experiences obtained for NAP- information ETH GTP II document National five-year Policy instruments, indicators, and targets of green development plan 2016-2020 economy including some relevant to climate resilience harmonized with the GTP Ethiopia‟s Second Required comprehensive report Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and National Communication to the UNFCCC on Ethiopia‟s Adaptation options prepared in synergetic approach to the UNFCCC GHG inventory, outlining with sector representatives and national mitigation and adaptation professionals plans, released in 2015 Data used was based on a mix of Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels of IPCC GHG inventory software: 1996 and 2006 NAPA A short term, project based Climate change scenarios, vulnerability levels, plan developed in 2007, adaptation options released in 2008 Regional Adaptation Plans Draft adaptation plans prepared Adaptation options specific to sectors within 13 2010/2011 for all of Ethiopia‟s Ethiopia‟s regional states regions and city administrations Sectoral Adaptation Plans Draft adaptation plans prepared Adaptation options specific to sectors 2010/2011 for some key sectors at national level EPACC Summary of program of 29 prioritized climate change adaptation measures, adaptation prepared in 2011 citing institutions to spearhead implementation of based on earlier plans (e.g. the measures Ethiopia‟s NAPA) CRGE Strategy Ethiopia‟s 20-year seminal 60 climate change mitigation options identified with strategic document for carbon some adaptation co-benefits neutral economy prepared in 2011 aimed at insuring middle income status INDC Ethiopia‟s intended Major adaptation options categorized under contribution to GHG reduction drought, flood, and cross-sector issues (mitigation) and to adaptation 14 submitted in 2015 Climate Resilience A federal-level strategy for Adaptation options identified that are specific to Strategy for Agriculture climate resilience addressing agriculture and forestry sectors and Forest Sectors agriculture and forest sectors prepared in 2015 Climate Resilience A federal-level climate Adaptation options identified that are specific to Strategy for Water and resilience strategy addressing water and energy sectors Energy Sectors water and energy sectors prepared in 2015 Technology Need A draft document addressing Technologies for mitigation may relate to sectors Assessment (TNA) (draft) potential technologies to be sensitive to climate change impacts and help meet adopted by Ethiopia towards their adaptation requirements meeting its GHG emissions reduction targets prepared in 2016 15 The information sources indicated in Table 3 cover the key CRGE sectors and priority regions, and present available information that can contribute to the preparation of the NAP-ETH. The priority CRGE sectors are: agriculture, forestry, energy, water, transport, industry and urban/housing. Recognizing that the CRGE sectors do not include all of the sectors that are significantly affected by climate change, additional sectors are addressed in the NAP-ETH, including the health sector. In addition to incorporating all relevant adaptation sectors, synergies and overlaps have also been included. This is to address the potential disconnect that may exist between some impacted climate change sectors and areas, and the assigned administration units. 1.3 GAPS AND NEEDS OF THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NAP-ETH PROCESS The capacities needed to implement the NAP-ETH are of two kinds: capacities to develop a well-formulated plan and capacities to implement it. While the development phase requires professionally diverse technical capacities, the implementation phase demands resources and institutional capacities in addition. Table 4 presents capacities needed for preparing and implementing the NAP-ETH and determines existing gaps to be filled. 16 Table 4 - Capacities gap analysis Capacities needed Interventions required Capacity to build and maintain data  Institutionalize the climate change impact database by involving archives/database on impacts of climate designated data collectors, e.g. the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) change for agro-climatic zones, and planning bureaus. vulnerable groups and ecosystems.  Devise Knowledge Management System and institutional memory mechanism for adaptation. Capacity to run climate models,  Build the capacity of Ethiopia‟s National Meteorology Agency providing predictions and scenarios, (NMA) to produce precise and reliable information. including validation with reference to on-  Collect and compile ground data that can augment modeling and the-ground historical data and level of scenario building. assessing certainty - at national and regional scales. Capacity to assess status of vulnerability  Coordinate vulnerability analysis of sectors and regions, including and determine required adaptation agro-climatic zones, vulnerable groups and ecosystems. 17 responses for the major development  Compile existing vulnerability data/information collected by sectors, sectors and for all agro-climatic zones, regions and non-state actors. vulnerable groups and ecosystems. Capacity to design multi-sector  Create taskforces involving institutions with overlapping/shared adaptation programs outlining responsibilities. overlapping or shared responsibilities.  Define specific roles for each institution with accountability and responsibility where there are overlapping/shared responsibilities. Capacity to mobilize the public and  Provide incentives for private sector actors to invest in adaptation private sector and involve it in climate measures/works. change adaptation investments.  Build opportunities for the private sector to participate in adaptation planning, implementation and monitoring. Capacity for strengthened mobilization  Encourage effective participation of the public to ensure ownership of and involvement of the general public in adaptation measures/activities. implementing and monitoring climate  Target participation of vulnerable groups so that their particular resilient action. adaptation needs are met. Capacity for enhanced mobilization and  Create strong partnership/network among non- state actors and others. 18 involvement of non-state actors including  Involve professionals and civil society actors in adaptation planning, professional societies, development implementation and monitoring. partners and donors. Capacity for building institutional,  Mainstream adaptation in government planning processes. financial, technical and material capacity  Coordinate capacity building efforts in order to develop critical mass for the implementation of adaptation of capacities. programs.  Enhance capacity of sectors to attract international and domestic adaptation finances. 19 1.4 CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA 1.4.1 RAINFALL PATTERNS, VARIABILITY, TRENDS AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS Ethiopia has three rainy seasons; June–September (Kiremt), October–January (Bega), and February–May (Belg). Kiremt, which is the main rainy season for most part of Ethiopia, accounts for 50–80 percent of the total annual rainfall over the regions having high agricultural productivity and major water reservoirs. It is for this reason that the most severe droughts usually result from the failure of the Kiremt rainfall to meet Ethiopia‟s agricultural and water resource needs. Western and northern Ethiopia have monomodal rainfall patterns with the rainfall amount peaking in Kiremt. The temporal distribution in these monomial rainfall areas shrinks from south to north, ranging from over eight months of rain over the southwest to only three months of rain over the northwest. Regions in the Rift valley and adjoining highlands receive bimodal rainfall during Belg and Kiremt seasons. On the other hand, regions of southern Ethiopia experience a bimodal rainfall distribution during the seasons defined as Bega and Belg. These regions have two distinct dry and two distinct wet seasons. Figure 1 shows the rainfall regime of Ethiopia based on NMA Maproom (www.ethiomet.gov.et), with sample Woredas selected randomly and 10-daily rainfall distribution computed to demonstrate the rainfall regimes. 20 Figure 1 - Rainfall regime of Ethiopia showing sample Woredas to demonstrate the rainfall regimes 21 The spatial distribution of mean annual rainfall based on 1971- 2000 station data climatology is shown in Figure 2 below (Koricha, 2013). It shows rainfall is characterized by large spatial variations, ranging from more than 2000 mm over some areas in the southwest to less than 250 mm to the south east and over the Afar lowlands in the northeast. The seasonal rainfall characteristics are closely associated with large scale global circulation systems, especially the south-north movement and characteristics of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Figure 2 - Spatial Distribution of Mean Annual Rainfall in millimeters (1971-2000) 22 1.4.2. OBSERVED RAINFALL VARIABILITY Rainfall variability is high over the eastern half of the country as compared to the western half. Figure 3 presents the coefficient of variation for annual rainfall, which shows increased variability from the southwest part of Ethiopia, where spatial rainfall distribution is maximum, to all directions following the decrease in rainfall amount. The coefficient of variations, which are computed using GeoCLIM tools, shows that Belg rainfall variability is comparably higher over the northern and eastern part of Belg rain benefiting part of Ethiopia (areas that get rainfall in March, April and May months shown in Figure 2). 1.4.3. OBSERVED RAINFALL TREND Observed rainfall year to year (inter-annual) variability and trend computed based on NMA station annual rainfall data averaged for the whole of Ethiopia is shown in the Figure 3 below (computed using GeoCLIM tools). The year to year variability is largely influenced by ENSO, where in general terms, El-Nino results in a rainfall deficit compared to the average, while La-Nina results in a positive anomaly on the annual rainfall amount. For example, moderate to strong El-Nino years such as 1963-64, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2009-10 all showed annual rainfall deficit as compared to 1961-1990 average. (Note: coefficient of variation for annual rainfall is an index of climate risk - it means % of variability year to year, with the higher the co-efficient (i.e., the higher the number) the more variation, the more likelihood of fluctuation in precipitation. 23 Figure 3- Annual and Belg rainfall coefficient of variation Figure 4 - Standardized annual rainfall anomaly - 1951-2010 in relation to 1961-1990 average. The trend line in Figure 4 shows a slight decrease in annual rainfall over the whole of Ethiopia. Though the average rainfall 24 shows a decreasing trend on an annual time scale for the whole of the country, the trend varies from region to region and from season to season. Observed rainfall decrease for the Belg area, especially the northeast and eastern part, is prominent as compared to other seasons. Figures 5 shows the spatial distribution of observed rainfall tend in mm/decade for Belg season for the period 1981 to 2014, produced using GeoCLIM tool using CHRIPS data set (Funk, 2015). The regions in the northern Rift valley and the adjoining highlands where observed rainfall is highly variable also showed decreasing rainfall trends. Figure 6 shows change in March to September rainfall (Belg and Kiremt combined) between 1997-2013 average and 1981-1996 average, which also shows that a decreasing trend has been observed in the area east of the Rift valley, while other parts of the country showed either a slight increase or no change. Thus, areas with high current variability showed a trend of rainfall decrease, particularly during Belg, and further increases in variability 25 Figure 5 - Rainfall trend over Ethiopia (1981- 2014) Figure 6 - Change in average rainfall over the March- September season, comparing averages for 1997-2013 with 1981-1996 26 1.4.4. RAINFALL PROJECTIONS The Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change (EPCC) (2015) developed rainfall projections using Coupled Climate Inter- comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble-based average percentage change of rainfall over Ethiopia during the 21st century. The models projected that annual precipitation for all RCPs will increase by 4% to 12% by 2100 compared to the 1975– 2005 baseline. The response of different parts of the country to different RCPs is slightly different. The percentage increase is high over northern part of Ethiopia under RCP2.6 scenario and over southern and east-southern part of the country under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Figure 7, below, shows the percentage change of rainfall under RCP2.6 (upper), RCP4.5 (middle) and RCP8.5 (bottom) scenarios over Ethiopia with respect to the historical period (1975- 2005) mean for the near-term (2006- 2036, left column), for the mid-term (2037-2067, middle column) and for the end-term (2068-2099, right column) relative to the baseline period (1975-2005) mean for the RCP2.6 (top row), RCP4.5 (middle row) and RCP8.5 (bottom row) (EPACC, 2015). 27 Figure 7 - Percentage change in rainfall over Ethiopia under 3 regional climate scenarios for three future time periods relative to the baseline period (1975-2005) and mean rainfall for the three regional climate scenarios. Time series of both historical and projected annual average rainfall of Ethiopia under different RCPs are shown in Figure 8 below (data based on multi-modal ensemble - KNMI). On a country aggregate, the projected change in annual average rainfall 28 will lie mostly above zero but not exceeding 10-20% as compared to the baseline (1986-2005 average) for the 21st Century. Figure 8 - Mean Annual rainfall anomaly Observed and Projection in °C (1900-2100), Relative to 1886-2005 1.4.5 TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGY, TREND AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS Ethiopia‟s average temperature is mild for its tropical latitude because of topography, with considerable variation over the country based on altitude. The historic mean annual temperature distribution over the country varies from about 10°C over the highlands of northwest, central and southeast to about 35°C over northeastern lowlands (NMSA, 2001). Recent mean annual temperatures of the country, computed for the 1981-2010 period, also showed similar patterns, with higher temperatures confined over the lowland areas of the northeast and southeast, as well as the western lowland periphery (See Figure 9, computed using GeoCLIM tools). Mean annual temperatures range in this recent 29 analysis range between 15 and 20°C in the highlands, while the low-lying regions experience a range of temperature between 25 and 30°C. Figure 9 - Mean annual surface temperature in °C 1.4.6. OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND Computed temperature trend based on NMA station minimum and maximum temperature data averaged for central and northeastern Ethiopia showed an increasing trend for the period 1951 to 2010 as compared to 1961-1990 (Figure 10). Minimum temperature increased at a rate of ranging from 0.12oC over the North East to 0.41oC over central Ethiopia in a decade. Further, central minimum temperature trend showed higher increasing trend than its maximum temperature, which means morning cool temperature became milder than before. This analysis is consistent with CRGE study. 30 Figure 10 - Inter-annual variation of the mean minimum (Left) and maximum temperature (Right) for Central Ethiopia (Top Row) and North Eastern Ethiopia (Bottom Row) 31 The spatial distribution of observed average surface temperature trend computed from CHRIPS data using GeoCLIM tool also shows an overall increasing trend reaching up to 0.44oC/decade in central north, northwest and western part of southern Ethiopia (See Figure 11). Figure 11 - Mean annual temperature trend in °C/Decade 1.4.6 PROJECTED TEMPERATURES OVER ETHIOPIA The EPCC projections indicate temperatures increases from -0.5° to 6°C 2100 relative to the 1975-2005 baseline period for all the RCPs. Figure 12 shows the projected change in annual mean temperature under RCP2.6 (upper), RCP4.5 (middle) and RCP8.5 (bottom) scenarios: approximately 1°C, 2°C and 5°C, respectively 32 (EPCC 2015). Figure 13 shows the annual temperature average time series of both historical and projected CIMP5 model over Ethiopia: the mean annual temperature observed and Projection in o C (1900-2100), relative to 1886-2005 based on multi-modal ensemble (KNMI). It shows a consistent warming trend under all RCP scenarios. The expected mean annual temperature change by the end of 21st century under the RCP2.6 (Blue line) is 1°C, while under RCP8.5 (Red line) the predicted change is above 4.8°C. 33 Figure 12- Change in annual mean temperature over Ethiopia under scenarios from the historical period (1975- 2005) 34 Figure 13 - Mean Annual Temperature Observed and Projection in oC (1900-2100), relative to 1886-2005 1.4.7. OBSERVED CLIMATE EXTREMES In Ethiopia, drought has historically had significant social and economic effects that have been documented by NMSA (1996). In terms of number of population, it has been documented by EM- DAT (2011) that a substantial number of drought occurrences have affected millions of Ethiopians since 1965 (Figure 14). Recent events include the drought of 2003, which affected approximately 12,600,000 people in Tigray, Oromiya, Amhara, Somali and Afar Regions. Similarly in 2015 over 10,000,000 people in Somali and Afar Regions were affected. The highest mortality due to drought was in 1983, when approximately 300,000 people died. 35 Figure 14 - Number of Population Affected by Major Drought in Ethiopia In contrast, floods occur more frequently, but tend to affect fewer numbers of people. Significant events occurred in 1990, when 350,000 were affected, and 2006, affecting 450,000 people (Figure 15). The number of deaths due to flooding peaked in 2006. 36 Figure 15 - Number of Population Affected by Flood in Ethiopia 1.5 DEVELOPMENT NEEDS AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES With its CRGE strategy and GTP II, Ethiopia aims to achieve middle-income status by 2025 while developing a green (low emissions) economy. GTP-II argues that reaching its goals require significant investments to boost agricultural productivity, strengthen the industrial base and foster export-oriented growth. However, Ethiopia - as a country and its people - has been the subject of costly natural disasters in its long history. Droughts, floods, human and livestock diseases, crop diseases and pests, hailstorms and wildfires (specific to some regions) are the major climate-related hazards in the country, affecting the livelihoods of significant numbers of people. Moreover, experience has shown that the country is exposed to unpredictable rains including the complete failure of rains, seasonal shifts in rainfall patterns and shortage of rainfall (drought) and this uncertainty is expected to 37 increase with climate change. Overall, the anticipated changes in temperature and rainfall as a result of climate change are expected to exert direct and indirect impacts on all elements of human wellbeing. This history and limited capacity to adapt to climate risk, uncertainty and change over time has made the country and its people vulnerable to the current and anticipated impacts of climate change. The diverse agro-ecologic zones in the country demonstrate different levels of sensitivity to climate change impacts. While the lowlands are generally sensitive to increased temperatures and prolonged drought, the highlands are impacted from intense and irregular rainfall. Consequently lowland pastoralist societies and their animals are exposed to increased risk, and agricultural productivity in the highlands is decreased. From a sectoral point of view, climate-sensitive development sectors/systems in Ethiopia include agriculture, livestock, infrastructure, health, water and energy resources, forestry, and livelihoods. The agriculture sector for instance is sensitive even to small variations in weather conditions due to its heavy dependence on rain. Vulnerability in this sector is exacerbated by poor farming practices and low adoption of agricultural inputs. Although empirical studies are yet to accumulate, Ethiopia‟s forest sector is also experiencing difficulties in terms of natural regeneration, increased forest fire, disease and pest prevalence during the past few decades. See Table 5 for more information on sectoral climate impacts. 38 Table 5 - Priority sectors vulnerable to climate change and its impacts Sectors Climate risks Potential impacts Agriculture Frequent  Shortening of crop plant maturity period droughts and (crop and  Expanding crop diseases occasional livestock) floods  Low productivity of soils and animals  Increase in crop failure Seasonal shift in  Decrease in livestock feed availability and rainfall and quality temperature  Reduced animal health, growth and regime reproduction  Increase in distribution of some infectious Extreme events diseases including heat waves. Storms  Increased in decomposition rate of organic matter  Contracting of pastoral zones across the country  Increase in livestock death Forestry Increase in  Expansion of tropical dry forests and the temperature, disappearance of lower mountain wet flood, landslide, forests; frost, and  Increased biodiversity loss extreme events including heat  Increased loss of indigenous species and waves, and decline of natural regeneration storms  Expansion of toxic weeds  Increased prevalence of forest fires,  Increased emission,  Increase in diseases, pests  Increase in GHGs in the atmosphere 39  Desertification Health Increase in  Increase of vector borne diseases temperature and  Increase in water borne diseases drought frequency, and  Severe malnutrition extreme events,  Increase in flood incidence, displacement including heat waves, and storms Transport Increase in  Increase in infrastructural design costs, temperature and  Damage of roads, bridges, rail road's and flooding airport landings Power Increased  The impact of erosion and silting problem temperature, on hydropower dams frequent and  Upstream degradation of natural extended of resources results in increased silting of drought, flood hydropower dams  Scarcity of water reduces the generation of energy  Physical damage of dams Industry Increase in  Natural resources degradation leads to temperature, resource scarcity, leads to raw material and rainfall limitations affecting industrial variability development/systems  Infrastructural damage  Increase in incidence of fire  Increase in costs  Declining productivity  Increase environmental pollution Water Increase in  Decrease in availability of potable water temperature;  Increase in water pollution decline in soil 40 moisture and  Decline in water supply ground water  Increase in damage and decline on levels aquatic habitat and life forms Urban Increased  Increase in hunger and famine droughts and  Intensifying migration of rural dwellers to flood towns  Damage on urban infrastructure (e.g., roads, building)  Increased both solid and liquid waste accumulation The increased demand on natural resources as a result of population pressure and poor conservation management has strained the functioning of the natural system. The resulting shortage of resources to address basic human needs and the inability of the natural ecosystem to respond threatens people with a high degree of risk and increased vulnerability. In addition, deforestation, landslides, pest infestations, soil erosion and water pollution are among the environmental problems that have emerged in the country, creating further challenges for rural livelihoods. Progress on development also influences vulnerability. According to WDRP (2015), inadequate provision of veterinary service and drugs, shortage of drinking water for both human and livestock, shortage of pasture, prevalence of malaria, sanitation problems, lack of pure drinking water for human, lack of health facilities and drugs for humans, lack of infrastructure such as access to road and electricity, and migration 41 are also some of the factors that make the community vulnerable to climate and disaster risks. The ability to withstand the gradual and/or catastrophic impacts of climate change is a function of an individual‟s resilience, structural qualities, the strength of communities, and organizational and institutional strength. Vulnerability of communities to climate risks needs to be analyzed across Woredas and by region and sector, and included in the NAP-ETH strategy. This analysis must take into account the variations in topography and climate regimes, as well as heterogeneity in social, cultural and economic factors. Gender is a key consideration, recognizing that women may be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to socio-economic inequalities that limit their adaptive capacity. With significant numbers of people in Ethiopia living in conditions of chronic food insecurity, building resilience and adaptive capacity for vulnerable communities and groups is critical. Some short term or seasonal coping mechanisms employed by communities in response to climate hazards include: selling more livestock than usual; consumption of crops rather than sale; seeking alternative jobs; eating wild food and tubers; reducing expenditure on non-essential items; migrating for seasonal labor; eating wild fruit and tubers; borrowing money; seeking elders to support conflict resolution (specific to Afar, Somali and Oromia regions); supporting draught oxen power and seed; giving milk cows to neighbors; increasing working hours; sending children for 42 work; selling of non-productive assets; limiting portion size of meals; and relying on less preferred and cheap foods. See Annex 1 for further details. While these coping mechanisms have helped communities in the short term they are insufficient and unsustainable; improved strategies are needed for long-term adaptation and to build resilience. According to research findings NDRMC (2015) different technologies for adaptation interventions can be identified. These include: adequate providing agricultural inputs (fertilizers, pesticides and improved varieties of seeds); enhancing extension services; constructing flood protection structures; developing infrastructure such as access to road and electricity; constructing health facilities and providing medicine for both human and livestock, developing irrigation schemes and enhancing soil and water conservation measures. To be effective, these technologies must be complemented with efforts to promote adaptive capacity, including access to information and support for flexible and forward-looking decision-making (ACCRA, undated). 43 PART II 44 PART II: NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN OF ETHIOPIA (NAP-ETH) 2.1 VISION AND STRATEGIC GUIDELINES 2.1.1. NAP-ETH VISION The Ethiopia NAP (NAP-ETH) vision is to create climate change impact resilient development for Ethiopia and its people. 2.1.2. SCOPE OF NAP-ETH The scope of NAP-ETH embraces development and service sectors with particular reference to agriculture, forestry, water, energy, transport, urban, industry, health and education. 2.1.3. PURPOSE OF NAP-ETH 1) Strengthen Ethiopia‟s overall adaptation strategy, through a strategic review of current national, regional and sectoral strategies and recent experience, using UNFCCC guidelines, and prepare Ethiopia‟s adaptation policy framework to guide the country to address adaptation needs currently not being addressed, readying Ethiopia to access global climate finance; 2) Bridge adaptation requirements across sectors and regions by identifying overlapping jurisdictions and missing links between different themes/sectors and geographical regions. This ultimately seeks to synergize adaptation actions that can ensure pulling all efforts and resources together; 3) Situate Ethiopia‟s overall adaptation strategy into the country‟s climate strategy landscape through review of 45 existing policies and plans, conducting a gap analysis using UNFCCC guidelines and elaborating the current climate change policies and plans; 4) Facilitate implementation of Ethiopia‟s adaptation strategy by aligning it with the institutional framework of Ethiopia‟s major climate change strategies and programs including the CRGE strategy, GTP II and other relevant strategies. 2.2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PATH Ethiopia aims to reaching middle-income status before 2025 and a carbon neutral economy by 2030. With a 15-year timeframe, 2016- 2030, and a 150 billion USD budget, the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy is targeted to achieve green or low emissions economic growth that is resilient in the context of the adverse effects of climate change. The CRGE Strategy is considered fairly unique in terms of its integration of economic and climate change goals. The CRGE Strategy consists of a Climate Resilience (CR) component and a Green Economy (GE) component, and adaptation and mitigation programmes are prioritized within the Strategy, with the CR component focusing on climate change adaptation. The „Green Economy‟ component of the CRGE strategy is based on four pillars: 1) Improving crop and livestock production practices for higher food security and farmer income while reducing emissions; 46 2) Protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services, including as carbon stocks; 3) Expanding electricity generation from renewable sources of energy for domestic and regional markets; 4) Leapfrogging to modern and energy-efficient technologies in transport, industrial sectors, and buildings. With regards to adaptation, Ethiopia intends to undertake adaptation initiatives that will reduce the vulnerability of its population, environment and economy to the adverse effects of climate change, within the context on its CRGE Strategy. Ethiopia‟s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) declared to the international community: “Ethiopia‟s long-term goal is to ensure adaptation to climate change is fully mainstreamed into development activities. This will reduce vulnerability and contribute to an economic growth path that is resilient to climate change and extreme weather events. “Because climate change will affect all geographic areas of the country, its solution requires the participation of the entire population, especially farmers and pastoralists. Parallel to this, Ethiopia‟s response to climate change aims to integrate actions that improve the status of women and the welfare of children. Furthermore, measures to address climate change will be planned and implemented in a 47 manner that addresses the wellbeing of the elderly, persons with disabilities and environmental refugees.”4 Moving towards its long-term adaptation goal, Ethiopia‟s main effort up to and beyond 2020 is to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability of livelihoods and landscapes in three key areas; drought, floods and other cross-cutting interventions. Ethiopia‟s overarching national development strategies and plans, sectoral strategies, and guidelines are still to be exhaustively analyzed for integration of climate change adaptation. To date these are being implemented through such programmes as Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), Growth and Transformation Plan 1 (GTP I), SLMP, PSNP, and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene National Strategy (WASH). The working assumption is that these programmes directly or indirectly are addressing issues of resilience and adaptation, however with the emergence of climate change in the country‟s development narratives and the adoption of the CRGE strategy, adaptation must be emphasized in a more concerted way. GTP II (2016-2020) has mainstreamed CRGE to implement its four pillars: modernization of agriculture, industrialization, transformation and foreign trade development. Based on the 4 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia – accessible at http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Ethiopia/1/INDC- Ethiopia-100615.pdf 48 strategic directions of GTP I, GTP II aspires to lead economic development in order to bring about structural change and transformation and serve as the basis for all sectoral plans. The basic directions of GTP II are these: 1) Sustain the rapid, broad based and equitable economic growth and development witnessed during the last decade including through GTP I; 2) Increase productive capacity and efficiency to reach the economy‟s productive possibility frontier through rapidly improving the quality, productivity and competitiveness of productive sectors, especially agriculture and manufacturing industries; 3) Enhance the transformation of the domestic private sector to enable it to become a capable development force; 4) Build the capacity of the domestic construction industry, bridge critical infrastructure gaps with a particular focus on ensuring the provision of quality infrastructure services; 5) Proactively manage the on-going rapid urbanization to unlock its potential for sustained rapid growth and structural transformation of the economy; 6) Accelerate human development and technological capacity building, and ensure its sustainability; 7) Continue to build democratic and developmental good governance through enhancing implementation capacity of public institutions and actively engaging citizens; 49 8) Promote women and youth empowerment, ensure their effective participation in the development and democratization process and enable them to equitably benefit from the outcomes of development; 9) Build a climate resilient green economy. 2.3 GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE NAP-ETH Implementation of the NAP-ETH will be governed by the following specific guiding principles, which are based on relevant and appropriate policies, and strategic guidance documents at the national, regional and sectoral levels. They are as follows:

1. Participation: successful implementation of the NAP-ETH depends on broad participation by stakeholders such as Federal Ministerial offices, Regional Bureaus, NGOs, private sector entities, academic institutions and bilateral and multilateral donors;

2. Coherent interventions: this principle requires actions to be carried out in a coherent and concerted manner in order to obtain more tangible results;

3. Stakeholder empowerment: stakeholder empowerment is a vital step in terms of achieving results;

4. Gender sensitivity: the adaptation options identified in the NAP-ETH will be relevant and will have significant impact if both men and women participate in and benefit from the action. Women are given due attention because they are often more vulnerable to changes in climate;

5. Equitable implementation: the need for equitable 50 implementation of the NAP-ETH at the social and environmental level is vital in order to safeguard the coherence, continuity and sustainability of interventions;

6. Principle of partnership: permanent dialogue needs to be established between the representatives of various groups of stakeholders in the sector. 2.4 FEATURES OF THE NAP-ETH The following are key features of the NAP for Ethiopia:

1. Flexible: the implementation of currently prioritized adaptation options will be pragmatically adjusted based on the prevailing environment, while new options will be added and prioritized;

2. Multi-level variable outputs: the NAP-ETH comprises a single federal planning document for climate change adaptation that is multi-sectoral and cross regional, and will align with strategies of the CRGE sectors at national and regional levels;

3. Implemented on a rolling basis: new priorities that emerge will be integrated in development plans as progress is made in resolving capacity shortage, in mobilizing investment and in integrating policy;

4. Ambitious: it will not be limited by currently available resources, targets, assessments or technical and human 51 resources capacity, instead encouraging partners and backers to rally around long-term objectives;

5. Mainstreamed: NAP-ETH will be mainstreamed in the national planning process and budget cycle at all levels;

6. Existing institutional foundation: NAP-ETH will be implemented by the existing CRGE institutional foundation of Ministries, Departments, Agencies and Bureaus at federal, sectoral and regional levels. 2.5 OBJECTIVES OF NAP The objectives of NAP-ETH fall within the NAP objectives outlined by the Cancun Adaptation Framework 2010:

1. To reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience to enhance economic development;

2. To facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programs and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate. Based on the above internationally accepted objectives of the NAP, the specific long-term adaptation objectives of the NAP- ETH are the following: 52 1) Integrate currently disparate sectoral and regional adaptation initiatives in order to mainstream climate change adaptation holistically within Ethiopia‟s long term development path; 2) Mainstream and institutionalize the implementation of climate change adaptation in the country‟s development governance structures to insure continuity and consistency of pragmatic efforts, and by strengthening the institutional memory; 3) Mobilize resources from public and private climate finance sources and from both domestic and international sources to enable the country to implement its climate change adaptation initiatives and to develop appropriate technical, material and expert capacities; 4) Establish resilient systems that can withstand disasters and risks imposed by climate change through building collaborative partnerships among the relevant stakeholders and enhancing the thematic integration among different development sectors. 2.6 ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND STRATEGIC PRIORITIES The degree of climate change impacts depends on the level of vulnerability, which in turn depends on the adaptive capacity of the country and the people. Alternative adaptation options can be listed for climate change impacts on development sectors and geographical regions. NAP-ETH‟s adaptation options are summarized from sectoral, 53 regional and federal lists and show short, medium and long-term time scales; they are then disaggregated into relevant thematic areas. The thematic areas are constructed programmatically, incorporating cross-sectoral, trans-regional considerations, are synergistic, and also have long implementation time frames. Within each option it is expected that adaptation opportunities will be found in the comprehensive layers of activities, including:  Planning and guidelines: undertaking thoughtful and pragmatic planning with lists of alternative actions and implementation guidelines;  Technology and methods: identifying and selecting enabling technologies and methods for the efficient implementation of adaptation activities;  Design and infrastructure: ensuring adherence to designs that take into account emerging climate change impacts and create resilient infrastructures;  Systems building: enhancing partnerships, integrating stakeholders horizontally and vertically, insuring adaptation activities feed into overall resilience and add value to each other‟s contribution;  Knowledge management: enhancing research and development, integrating indigenous and contemporary knowledge, and registering acquired experiences;  Institutional memory: creating knowledge and experience databases. 54 2.6.1 NAP-ETH ADAPTATION OPTIONS This document has identified 18 major adaptation options that will be implemented at all levels in the country and across different development sectors. The listed options are defined to address major challenges of the country that are easily exacerbated by climate change impacts. More detailed information about the prioritization and approach will be prepared during the planning and implementation phase of each option and by respective sectors.

1. Enhancing food security through improving agricultural productivity in a climate smart manner. This adaptation option will focus on enhancing crop and livestock productivity by selecting resistant and tolerant varieties through switching and/or diversification, selection and breeding and by diversifying varieties. Specific to crops, effective systems for increased use of organic fertilizers and appropriate mechanization will be implemented. A strong system of monitoring of crops for diseases and pests will be implemented. For livestock, improved breeding and feeding systems and improved pasture/grazing management will be realized along with enhanced veterinary services. For both crops and livestock enhanced water availability, use of appropriate agricultural technologies and enhanced soil and water conservation methods will be employed.

2. Improving access to potable water. This adaptation option strives to attain balance between demand and supply of 55 potable water in the context of water conservation. Access to improved water, sanitation and health systems will be enhanced; efficient use of water will be promoted; water supply and sanitation maps will be developed; small-scale wind and solar pumps will be used to increase water availability.

3. Strengthening sustainable natural resources management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds. This adaptation option will have multi-sectoral and trans-regional implications including: a focus on energy – safeguarding hydropower dams; a focus on water – improving ground water recharge; a focus on health – minimizing downstream flood risks; and a focus on agriculture – rehabilitating degraded lands.

4. Improving soil water harvesting and water retention mechanisms. This adaptation option will increase irrigation agriculture; improve systems for soil moisture retention in arid environments; develop water infrastructures for vulnerable people; improve water allocation and transfer governance; and implement diversified water harvesting technologies.

5. Improving human health systems through the implementation of changes based on an integrated health and environmental surveillance protocol. This adaptation option will embrace actions from disease surveillance to 56 promote evidence based policy decisions. Strengthening health systems will prepare them to deal with gradual changes and sudden shocks. Further emphasis will be given to climate sensitive disease prevention and management; improving emergency medical service; balancing high population growth rate with the economic growth; managing indoor air pollution; and improving basic health services, especially the health extension system.

6. Improving ecosystem resilience through conserving biodiversity. This adaptation option will strive to enhance natural resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change by enhancing healthy and well-functioning ecosystems. This option uses biodiversity conservation including agro- biodiversity and ecosystem services as an overall adaptation strategy. Diverse ecosystem conservation including mountains, watersheds, dry forests, tropical high forests, and rangelands will be implemented. Agro-diversity conservation and management in different agro-climatic zones will be implemented.

7. Enhancing sustainable forest management. This adaptation option will strive to create enabling situations for sustainable management of forest resources and its contribution to the livelihoods of forest dependent communities in particular and the national economy at large. The benefits of doing this will be twofold: enhancing the adaptive capacity of forests and forest landscapes and improving forest-based incomes and the 57 national economy. It is imperative to promote value added commercialization of timber and non-timber forest products along with payment for ecosystem services. In particular, the contribution of forest resources to other production sectors, mainly energy, agriculture and industry will be acknowledged and mainstreamed. Commercial afforestation and reforestation practices will be promoted. Wide scale promotion of forest health activities will be planned and implemented. Further, participatory forest management and community-based rehabilitation of degraded forests will be implemented.

8. Building social protection and livelihood options of vulnerable people. This adaptation option will give special emphasis to women, children and impoverished communities by putting in place safety net schemes, supporting asset creation, improving access to credit, promoting livelihood diversification and arranging voluntary resettlement/ migration.

9. Enhancing alternative and renewable power generation and management. This adaptation option will emphasize the sustainability of the power sector by enhancing ways of ensuring that power generation capacity withstands climate change impacts; by insuring diverse energy mix; by improving energy efficiency; and by accelerating access to off-grid energy. 58

10. Increasing resilience of urban systems. This adaptation option will address increasing the provision of housing; improving housing conditions; enhancing urban greenery; and improving urban infrastructure. Urban land planning and management will be given due emphasis. In addition, urban administration and management programmes will engage in promoting efficient household/urban waste management system.

11. Building sustainable transport system. This adaptation option will emphasize protecting and improving the lifespan of transport infrastructure. Transportation design and safety standards will be reviewed and adaptation-oriented asset management systems will be implemented. Furthermore, adequate transport system will facilitate the movement of aid and support to climate change-affected communities.

12. Developing adaptive industry systems. This adaptation option will enhance climate smart production systems and products through proper positioning of industrial parks and efficient supply of raw materials. Industrial waste management will be improved for e-wastes, liquid waste, and solid wastes. Efficient logistics will be enhanced to haul raw materials and deliver industrial products. To achieve these results, formal finance institutions will be appropriately strengthened at all administrative and management levels. 59

13. Mainstreaming endogenous adaptation practices. This adaptation option will emphasize recognition of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems, such as local climate change adaptation practices, skills and institutions. Through participatory processes, these practices will be identified, standardized, integrated, scaled-up and incorporated into the implementation of adaptation action and programmes.

14. Developing efficient value chain and marketing systems. This adaptation option will focus on improving the resilience of value chains for livestock, crops, and forest products, and products from other sectors in order to facilitate improved production and marketing.

15. Strengthening drought, livestock and crop insurance mechanisms. This adaptation option will promote preparedness related to risk reduction and create insurance schemes for anticipated climate risks, including drought and flood leading to crop failure.

16. Improving early warning systems. This adaptation option will enhance planning for disaster and climate risk management; reinforce early warning systems related to both quick and slow onset disasters; and install knowledge management system, climate information exchange systems and enhanced networking capabilities, which are all vital for effective data sharing and decision making. 60

17. Developing and using adaptation technologies. This adaptation option will cover materials, methods, equipment and diverse forms of knowledge to strengthen climate change adaptation capacities. Diverse technologies that enhance climate change adaptation capacities will be pursued related to: flood control, infrastructural design, agricultural productivity, resource conservation, efficient management techniques and information management systems.

18. Reinforcing adaptation research and development. This adaptation option will emphasize the building of databases, and increasing the knowledge and wisdom/lessons learned portfolio from adaptation experiences of different sectors and regional states. Meteorological data will be compiled and analyzed continuously and consistently; multidisciplinary research on climate change vulnerability and impacts will be carried out; decision support systems will be devised and arranged. Environmental education will be promoted; public awareness schemes will be enhanced; extension system (including radio) will be improved to more effectively reach rural and remote people and communities, as well as highly vulnerable people and communities. 2.6.2 STRATEGIC PRIORITIES The impact of climate change varies across geographic areas and social groups depending on environmental, ecological and socio- economic resilience of the specific area and group. The level of urgency of the climate impacts on development sectors depends 61 on the sector‟s vulnerabilities and inherent or improved adaptive capacities. Development sectors often overlap and are cross regional, which strongly suggests that federally determined adaptation frameworks and programmes (enabling environment) tied to known and priority adaptation options need to serve the country both across sectors and across regions. In view of the need for mid- to long-term adaptation planning it is very important to balance Ethiopia‟s evolving climate change resilience against the anticipated climate change scenarios so that the extent of adaptation can be anticipated as accurately as possible, the scale and scope of adaptation can be understood and supported with resources, and the depth of local and area-wide impact (e.g., across an agro-ecological zone) can be fully appreciated by policy, financial and program planners. To be able to devise the priority adaptation options four major variables or criteria are taken into account:

1. A strong internationally-agreed understanding of the purpose of national adaptation plans (Section 2.3);

2. A strong understanding of Ethiopia‟s prevailing development needs and challenges together with robust assessments of the current and emerging impacts of climate change (Sections 1.5 and 2.2);

3. A strong understanding of the drivers of vulnerability and the need for adaptation in the context of increasing climate change and climate risk;

4. Scalable criteria for priority setting, including: 62 a) number of climate resilient targets addressed b) contribution to poverty alleviation and ensuring food security; c) ability to generate household and national income; d) improving the capacity at all level of governments; e) alignment with investment activities in the country; f) cost effectiveness; and g) sensitivity to vulnerable groups, including gender and youth, h) sensitivity to vulnerable ecosystems; and h) size of mitigation and other co-benefits. Strategic priorities will be articulated in the NAP-ETH that will incorporate the priority adaptation options that can directly tackle most prevailing conditions of vulnerability and build resilience in the face of the expected increase in impacts of climate change including increased climate variability. 2.7 NAP-ETH COSTS In the 15 years NAP-ETH implementation period (2016- 2030) the country needs nearly USD 6 Billion per annum (USD 90 Billion total) to be divided proportionally between the 18 adaptation options/programs. This annual average agrees with adaptation cost estimate for Ethiopia.

1. The costs of NAP-ETH were based on the following inputs: 63  Sectoral adaptation cost estimates for agriculture, forestry, water and energy;  Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) II sector by sector disaggregated budget;  Urban poverty reduction project budget;  Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) budget;  Sustainable Land Management (SLM) budget;  Disaster risk budget (assumed 2 disasters will happen during the NAP-ETH period);  Annual budget 2016 allocated for implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG);

2. Annual averages of the aforementioned budgets/costs were calculated and factored by 40%;

3. The 40% factor is assumed to cover adaptation activities (assessment, planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation). In addition to anticipated adaptation activities, it is assumed that mainstream development work contributes to adaptation by reducing underlying causes of vulnerability. Additionally, some mitigation/green economy engagements are assumed to have adaptation co- benefits;

4. NAP-ETH costs will be determined along with the implementation strategies and action plans to be prepared henceforth; and

5. Finance for the NAP-ETH will be mobilized from domestic (public and private sources) and global adaptation related climate finance. 64 The calculation of adaptation cost estimates is yet to be more refined. As costs are updated, attention will be paid to the requirements of climate finance institutions (e.g., the Green Climate Fund) and their methodologies for determining adaptation costs, so that Ethiopia will be more able to readily access these financial resources over time. 2.8 INCORPORATING ADAPTATION INTO DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND STRATEGIES It is vitally important for climate change adaptations to be proactively incorporated into development policies and strategies. Macroeconomic and sectoral policies and strategies, which are currently in force, as well as Regional strategies and Woreda plans, should be revised or updated regularly and at least as necessary to ensure that they incorporate climate change adaptations appropriately and effectively. Future development policies and strategies should also anticipate the need to incorporate climate change adaptation appropriately and effectively on regular basis. Ethiopia has made a good effort to undertake some preliminary work to incorporate climate change adaptation into development policies and strategies in general, under the CRGE strategy and the GTP-II, in particular. However as critical adaptation requirements are more clearly understood, these strategies along with sectoral and regional strategies and plans will have to be amended to mainstream adaptation, and perhaps supplementary plans will need to be developed and authorized for 65 implementation on an interim basis in some cases. See Figure 16, below, to understand how programmes are mainstreamed into the holistic development strategy of the country and how NAP-ETH will benefit from the ongoing development strategies and plans. 66 PART III 67 PART III: IMPLEMENTATION 3.1 INSTITUTIONAL GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURE TO IMPLEMENT THE NAP-ETH Effective governance is believed to play a significant role in ensuring the successful implementation of the objectives of the National Adaptation Plan. The existing CRGE structure is used as the governance structure for the implementation of NAP-ETH. The design of the CRGE Facility builds on international best practice, and has been tailored to the unique circumstances and needs of Ethiopia. The CRGE architecture has been developed to enable a programmatic and transformative approach for implementing relevant activities that minimizes the transaction costs, fragmentation and duplication associated with a project- based approach. The system was created to help convert the CRGE vision into practical action on the ground. The governance structure of CRGE (see Figure 17) has captured coordinating, implementing, and executing entities at all government administration levels - from the Federal to Regional to Woreda administrative levels. However it has not exhaustively incorporated all coordinating, implementing, and executing entities, such as social sectors which have been involved in climate adaptation activities - including Ministry of Health, Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, Disaster & Risk Management commission and relevant others. As well, the CRGE structure does not include dedicated capacity on 68 adaptation/climate resilience at many government administration levels. It is not advisable to create new and independent NAP-ETH governance structure; rather, it is recommended to use the existing CRGE governance structures with some modifications (incorporating entities which were not been included) due to the following reasons:  The name and arrangement of the existing structure is inclusive of both adaptation and mitigation, however a stronger and increasing emphasis on adaptation/climate resilience is required  Capacity and procedures are needed to make demarcation line between adaptation and mitigation and co-benefits, for purposes of ensuring policy clarity, planning, funding, M&E and reporting related to adaptation/climate resilience  To avoid unnecessary duplication of structures that could be managed in one structure In the governance structure, implementation of NAP-ETH as a whole falls under the mandate of the various sectoral institutions, such as the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MEFCC), Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resource, Ministry of Livestock and Fishery Development, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and 69 other sectors, commissions/agencies, research and academic institutions, NGOs, CSO, and private sector actors. The MEFCC holds responsibility for coordination of the implementation of the NAP-ETH, and for coordination of required follow up actions. The NAP-ETH is aligned with the existing policy decision- making structures for the CRGE initiative and with the broader Government planning processes. It ensures that different parts of Government are properly integrated into the NAP-ETH‟s governance mechanisms; and that its governance mechanisms are transparent so that stakeholders can express concerns or opinions at appropriate points in the decision-making processes. The specific expected responsibilities of the various bodies involved in NAP-ETH implementation and governance are described below. Roles and Responsibilities of Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee:  As Chair of the Inter- Ministerial Steering Committee, the PMO provides overall guidance to the work conducted with respect to the NAP-ETH, and facilitates high-level decision making that determines what is required of NAP- ETH;  Sets priorities and establish the necessary legal and institutional frameworks; 70  Strengthens the implementation of all existing policies and programmes that could reduce vulnerability to climate change;  Oversees cross-regional common interests arising during NAP-ETH implementation. Roles and Responsibilities of the Management Committee:  Sets the operational direction of NAP-ETH in order to ensure alignment with the CRGE Strategy and the GTP;  Evaluates NAP-ETH implementation, as well as the activities of all sectors and avoid duplication of efforts and improve its effectiveness;  Provides final approval and financing allocation and maintain oversight of financial management Review and approve the Annual Consolidated Reports submitted by IEs. Roles and Responsibilities of CRGE Facility:  The MEFCC and Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation is primarily responsible for mobilizing funding both from domestic and international sources, in collaboration with counterparts in the various sectors and stakeholders;  Authorises the release of funds from the national and international account for approved priority resilient activities from the CRGE Facility Account; 71  Presents technical and financial reports of NAP-ETH to the Management Committee for evaluation and approval. Roles and Responsibilities of Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change:  Leads and provides strong Coordination for the implementation of NAP-ETH;  Undertakes studies and research, and develop systems and action plans to ensure the successful implementation of NAP-ETH;  Puts forward new initiatives and proposals that are designed to improve the incorporation of climate change adaptations into development policies and strategies;  Consolidates and aggregates projects/programme performance data from across Regional Implementation Entities (IEs) and federal-level Executing Entities (EEs) and generates quarterly (progress) and annual (performance assessment) adaptation reports. Roles and Responsibilities of Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation:  Makes operational a Facility that performs the effective promotion, financing, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of actions that meet the objectives of the CRGE strategy;  Holds full programmatic and financial accountability, on behalf of the Government, for implemented actions; 72  Releases funds from the CRGE Facility Account to line ministries and Regional Bureaus of Finance and Economic Development (BOFED) pursuant to the decision of the Management Committee and in compliance with the National Regulatory Framework. Roles and Responsibilities of Federal Implementing Entities (FIEs-Line Ministries):  Coordinates the implementation of sectoral and sub- sectoral activities  Implement NAP-ETH successfully;  Prepares and submits monitoring reports to MEFCC on a regional basis.  Designs, establishes and staffs their respective Environment and Climate Change Coordinating Unit;  Designs and establishes the MRV system per sector. Roles and Responsibilities of National Planning Commission:  The NPC has the leading role in the planning process for the NAP-ETH;  The NPC considers adopting NAP-ETH impact level indicators throughout the GTP periods and actively participate in M&E of NAP-ETH implementation performance. 73 Roles and Responsibilities of research and academic institutions and National Agencies (NMA and CSA):  Academic and research institutions undertake studies and researches, to develop systems and models for the successful implementation of NAP-ETH;  The National Meteorology Agency (NMA) has the role of developing climate models, prediction and scenarios, and seasonal forecasts, clarifying the level of uncertainty for each agro-ecological zones in Ethiopia;  The Central Statistical Agency (CSA) holds and collects climate related data, which can serve to populate some resilient activities indicators, through data base on impact of climate change for each agro-climate zone and vulnerable groups. Roles and Responsibilities of Regional Inter-Bureaus Committee5:  Regional Bureau of Environment and Forests and Regional Bureau of Finance and Economic Development will chair the Regional Inter-Bureaus committee;  Provides general directions and guidance on Regional NAP implementation; 5 Regional Inter-Bureaus Committee is changed to Regional Steering Committee 74  Oversees the implementation of CRGE in general and Regional NAP-ETH implementation in particular;  Evaluates Regional NAP-ETH implementation and avoid duplication of efforts and improve its effectiveness and efficiency;  Examines and approves Regional outcome reports, activity reports and financial reports. Roles and Responsibilities of Regional Bureaus:  Responsible for Prioritization and implementation of the strategic adaptation options of their respective Region Bureaus;  Monitors and evaluates Regional, Zonal (where appropriate) and Wereda levels performances during implementation of NAP-ETH;  Designs mechanisms and mobilizes climate finance in their respective Bureaus  Prepares and submits monitoring reports to their respective coordinating sector. Roles and Responsibilities of Woreda Inter-office6 Committee  WoEF and WoFED will chair the woreda inter-office committee; 6 Woreda Inter-office Committee is changed to Woreda Steering Committee 75  Oversees the implementation of CRGE in general and woreda NAP-ETH in particular;  Evaluates NAP-ETH implementation at Woreda level, and coordinates efforts to avoid duplication and improve the effectiveness and efficiency Woreda offices, Kebeles and community structures;  Executes and monitors NAP-ETH projects/programmes in the Woredas. Roles and Responsibilities of Woreda Offices:  Responsible for prioritization and implementation of the strategic adaptation options of their respective Woreda officials;  Monitors and evaluates office level performances during implementation of NAP-ETH;  Designs mechanism and mobilizes climate finance in their respective officials  Prepares and submits monitoring reports to their respective coordinating Bureaus. 76 Figure 16 - NAP-ETH governance arrangements 77 3.1.2 COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND ITS PARTNERS Collaboration between the government and its financial and technical partners in relation to the National Adaptation Plan should be maintained on the basis of the structural arrangements described above. Initial collaboration between these stakeholders could take place in the form of a round table of donors with a view to mobilizing funding, followed by other meetings to review funding mobilized, progress made, problems encountered and proposed solutions. 3.2 MOBILIZATION OF TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES The CRGE Strategy recognizes that most bilateral and multilateral climate funds need a medium through which funds may be channeled to support climate related activities and thus this must be provided for by instituting activities through and accrediting the CRGE Facility. The objectives of the CRGE Facility are as follows:

1. Financial moblisation and allocation: The CRGE Facility is the Government‟s vehicle to mobilise, access and combine domestic and international, public and private sources of finance to support the institutional building and implementation of Ethiopia‟s CRGE Strategy;

2. Stakeholder coordination: The CRGE Facility provides a single engagement point where the Government, development partners, academia, the private sector, civil society and other stakeholders can engage and make decisions about how best to utilise available finance in the pursuit of the CRGE vision and goals; and 78

3. Unlock capital at scale: By blending investment sources and leveraging resources, the CRGE Facility will use climate finance to complement other existing forms of investment to bolster Ethiopia‟s core climate-compatible development activities, thereby promoting the full integration of CRGE with the GTP. The following are potential finance sources of funding for the National Adaptation Plan:  Government budget;  Bilateral & multilateral partners (World Bank, UNFCCC, Green Climate Fund-GCF, the UNDP, GEF, etc.);  Private investment;  Civil Society Organizations; and  Community contributions The Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation and the Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change are jointly responsible for mobilizing funding, in collaboration with counterparts in the various sectors. 3.3 COMMUNICATION STRATEGY Successful implementation of the NAP-ETH requires a proactive communications strategy, aimed at promoting ownership of the plan among the public and development partners. A communications strategy is essential in all cases to improve the reach of information about the NAP-ETH at all levels and to solicit feedback, 79 communicate issues raised from stakeholders - to ensure transparency, participation and smooth implementation. The communications strategy for adaptation will primarily target national, regional and local decision-makers, as well as:

1. Federal and Regional administrative structures

2. Local administrative units

3. Civil society and the private sector

4. Communications and media experts

5. Academics

6. Researchers

7. Women groups

8. Youth groups

9. Technical and financial partners

10. Opinion leaders including traditional and religious leaders

11. Local communities across the country Different channels may be used for communications concerning the NAP-ETH, in particular information and communication technologies (ICT), the structures and facilities of the Ministry responsible for communications and the private media, and traditional channels of communication, such as direct collaboration with stakeholders. Particular emphasis will be placed on the use of Federal and Regional working languages in order to facilitate the simultaneous dissemination of information on a mass basis reaching the grassroots. 80 Tailored information should also be communicated to the international community, in particular with a view to mobilizing more funding for implementation of the NAP-ETH. 3.4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN It is intended that implementation manuals will be developed that will guide implementation of the NAP-ETH. A general strategy for implementation of the NAP-ETH within a framework of five (5) Priorities is set out below: Strategic priority 1: Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in to development policies, plans and strategies Climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, must be mainstreamed into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate to ensure reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience. The adaptation measures need to be prioritized according to their urgency or importance based on set and agreed criteria. The mechanisms have also been introduced by which the adaptation measures will be taken. Strategic priority 2: Build the long-term capacities of institutional structures involved in NAP-ETH It has been understood that the implementation capacity of coordinating, implementing and executing entities at all levels of government administration is believed to play a pivotal role in realizing the CRGE 81 vision and the GTP. However, a wide implementation capacity gap has been observed among CRGE implementing sector offices in relation to organizational, system and human capacity, according to the findings of a nation-wide capacity needs assessment. This would be one of the major constraints encountered in implementing and achieving CRGE strategies and vision. Government of Ethiopia has developed a National Capacity Development Programme to address problem associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation capacity gap by building long lasting foundations in the organizational system and human capacity of institutions. The implementation of NAP-ETH benefits from continuous capacity assessment works and targeted capacity building activities. Strategic priority 3: Improving the knowledge management system for NAP-ETH As far as possible, the NAP-ETH program will establish structured systems of knowledge acquisition and development, including careful use of geo-referenced data sets on GIS layers that help link the program/project sites to specific learning outcomes in the form of reports, fact sheets and other knowledge products, such as film, podcasts and other media, to help explain the direction, purpose and impact of the work. Knowledge briefs will be prepared each year and a set of „Champions‟ (community, experts, other non-governmental and private sector) will work with each program/option to capture their experiences and knowledge on an ongoing basis over the five-year period. The program/project will also collect gender-disaggregated data at all levels and will continually strive to improve the depth, range and quality of this 82 data over the lifetime of the program/project. In years two and five, national learning events will be convened with other like-minded projects to assess progress at a macro-level across climate change adaptation interventions. This will be linked to the production of policy reports with associated briefing papers highlighting key lessons learned, policy pointers for future government action under the NAP-ETH, and good performance experiences across the country. Strategic priority 4: Establish effective and sustainable funding mechanisms An estimated expenditure of around USD 6 Billion will be required each year for the next 15-years of NAP-ETH implementation. The projected level of foreign direct investment, grants, and transfers will not be sufficient to fund the required additional investments. Therefore, finance mobilization is identified as one of the major constraints for implementing the NAP-ETH. Low mobilization of domestic financial resources was another implementation challenge encountered. Mobilizing private international capital will play a useful role, but public finance – such as climate finance – can also contribute significantly to close the funding gap. Attracting international capital will not be easy. International competition for scarce capital increases the challenges for least-developed countries in accessing such funding. Development of a long run strategy that ensure sustainable funding mechanisms will be done. Among other things this will include:  Undertaking recourse gap assessment  Identifying major sources of funding 83  Diversify source of funding by type and number  Identifying funding sources according to their reliability  Enhancing resources mobilizing capacity of institution  Introducing innovative funding mechanisms Strategic priority 5: Advancing adaptation research and development in the area of climate adaptation It has also become increasingly clear that the environmental repercussions and economic impacts of climate change are sizeable, and populations everywhere in the world are beginning to experience adverse consequences of climate change on aspects of their lives and environments, including on their health and wellbeing. Research and development activities will play an important role in improving awareness and management of climate change with a view to successful implementation of the National Adaptation Plan. Specific objectives, outcomes and indicators have been initially identified for each strategic priority and are provided in Table 7 (following page). These will be reviewed and updated as implementation strategies are developed. 84 Table 6 – NAP-ETH – Strategic Implementation Specific objectives Anticipated outcomes Performance indicators Data sources Assumptions and risks STRATEGIC PRIORITY 1: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development policies, strategies and plans Incorporate climate Fully mainstreamed  Mainstreamed policies,  Mainstreaming  Collaborative partnership exists change adaptation into national policies, strategies, programmes and manuals and check between climate change and National policies strategies, programmes plans lists development institutions. strategies and plans and plans  Evaluation reports  Each development program has economic and GHG scales  Reports from sectors STRATEGIC PRIORITY 2: Building long-term capacities of institutional structures involved in NAP-ETH Expand the technical, Integrated program for  A program for building the  Document with  Comprehensive capacity human and financial climate change capacities and its details of the development plan exist aimed resources and operational adaptation capacities operational structures is capacity-building at creating critical mass of structures available programme resources  Reports from sectors  Evaluation reports 85 Specific objectives Anticipated outcomes Performance indicators Data sources Assumptions and risks Build the capacities of Dynamic long-term  Policy documents and  Policy documents  Enabling institutional institutional structures planning mechanisms development strategies and development framework exist involved in managing that incorporate NAP- refer to climate change strategies  Sufficient financial and NAP-ETH ETH have been put in adaptations technical resources mobilized place Problems relating to  Satisfaction rate for  Evaluation reports climate change stakeholders affected by adaptation are resolved climate change promptly Risks relating to  Anticipation capacities of  Evaluation reports variability and climate institutional structures change are better involved in managing managed climate change adaptation STRATGEC PRIORITY 3: Improving the knowledge management system for NAP-ETH Improve knowledge of Climate change  A climate change  Evaluation reports  Multifaceted institutional climate change adaptation adaptation is more adaptation database has memories mechanism widely known and been created and is established documented functional  Strong knowledge and  Lessons learned on portfolios bases established adaptation documented and 86 Specific objectives Anticipated outcomes Performance indicators Data sources Assumptions and risks shared among stakeholders Ensure that the existing The early warning  Improve the anticipation  Evaluation reports  High resolution reliable early early warning system is system works and communication warning system created functional effectively capacities of the early  Effective early warning system warning system implementation mechanism exist Foster a culture of Citizens gradually  % of population with  Evaluation reports  Community climate change resilience and adaptation develop a well-informed access to climate impact resilience capacity exist to climate change among approach to manage information for decision-  Best practices of climate citizens risks and variability and making resilience scaled up adapt to climate change  Adoption rate for best practices in the field of climate change adaptation STRATEGIC PRIORITY 4: Implementing effective and sustainable funding mechanisms Building capacities and More funding is  Increase in funding  Signed funding  Strong climate change leadership in Ethiopia available for NAP-ETH mobilized agreements governance mechanism exists with a view to mobilizing  Sufficient financial and the funding required for material resources mobilized NAP-ETH 87 Specific objectives Anticipated outcomes Performance indicators Data sources Assumptions and risks Provide sustainable Ethiopia has stable and  Amount of funding  Evaluation reports  Sufficient and consistent funding sources for NAP- sustainable sources of available budget allocated for ETH funding for the implementation of climate  A sustainable funding rehabilitation/recovery change adaptation mechanism is in place of people affected by  Clear guideline and definition climate hazards and exist about climate finance changes STRATEGIC PRIORITY 5: Advancing adaptation research and development in the area of climate change adaptation Undertake and support Vibrant research  Number of basic research  Assessment and  Strong action research capacity research and information recommendations undertaken Evaluation Reports established informed by basic analysis related to climate and adaptive research Develop a model for the  New research findings change impacts & successful adaptation implementation of adaptation options 88 PART IV 89 PART IV: MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE NAP-ETH 4.1 OBJECTIVES AND SIGNIFICANCE OF NAP-ETH MONITORING AND EVALUATION The main objectives of the NAP-ETH‟s monitoring and evaluation system are to follow up the implementation of the NAP-ETH so as to ensure its effectiveness. The M&E system provides a tool to follow up progress in achievement of planned target and to take appropriate and timely corrective measures when necessary and manage the development process effectively. It also provides an up-to-date overview of progress at all times, makes activities more effective and efficient in order to achieve anticipated outcomes; and increases the visibility of the NAP-ETH throughout the implementation period. M&E of adaptation aims to track progress achieved in the implementation of adaptation interventions, and/or the effectiveness of these interventions in reducing vulnerability, improving adaptive capacity, and supporting the overall well being of populations affected by the impacts of climate change. Monitoring takes place on a continuous basis, which is required for adaptive management in order to track progress and determine whether any adjustments need to be made. For accountability purposes, both monitoring and evaluation may be used: monitoring can help to confirm whether a planned intervention has taken place, evaluation can help to assess its effectiveness. Similarly, both monitoring and evaluation can serve learning purposes. 90 National M&E of adaptation looks at progress towards adaptation in a country: Which achievements have been made in implementing adaptation-related policies, plans, interventions, and investments? What are the results of those achievements? As interventions on a more local level also contribute to this progress, national M&E of adaptation may also need to take into account information about adaptation that happens at regional levels. National M&E of adaptation refers to adaptation progress of a country and can take into account information about what is happening at the more local project and community levels, whereas portfolio M&E of adaptation aims to explain how a range of adaptation projects (in one or multiple Region) are contributing to a common set of objectives. The results of the monitoring and evaluation would be used to improve effectiveness and efficiency of the process, and facilitate incorporation of new assessments and emerging science, as well as highlight lessons learned. The results would also be used to develop reports on the progress and effectiveness of the NAP-ETH process, which could inform the COP through national communications and other reporting channels 4.2 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES IN M&E Many distinct actors, i.e., National Adaptation Plan, Coordinator, Implementing and Executing Entities, will be involved in National Adaptation Plan (NAPs) M&E. The quarterly and annual reporting path summarized and presented below highlights the many actors and 91 levels involved and their function in reporting. The detailed roles and responsibilities in monitoring, evaluation and reporting are presented in Table 8. Table 7 - Roles and responsibilities in monitoring, evaluation and reporting Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting Actors Responsibilities Ethiopian  Provide high level direction, guideline and support Parliament: to the implementation of NAP-ETH (Standing  Perform biannual performance evaluation of NAP- Committee for ETH Natural Resources and Environmental protection) Inter-  Facilitate high level decision making related to the ministerial implementation of NAP-ETH steering  Oversee cross-regional and cross-sectoral issues committee related to the implementation of NAP-ETH  Monitor and evaluate overall NAP-ETH Management implementation and avoid duplication effort committee  Oversee financial management performance of IEs  MEFCC and MoFEC coordinating the overall implementation and M&E of NAPs CRGE facility  Approves the NAP M&E System  Reviews NAP performance and Portfolio performance on a quarterly basis NPC  Commissions spot-checks of projects/programmes, 92 as required (for technical or financial reasons)  Commissions reviews or evaluations (independent or non-independent) of projects /programmes  Develops and maintains the NAP M&E System  Provides guidance and support on NAP M&E system requirements (including reporting templates)  Monitors project/programme performance quarterly (progress reports) and annually (performance assessment reports)  Consolidates quarterly and annual reports from IEs Monitoring reports for submission to, and approval, by MEFCC and and MoFEC Evaluation  Executes spot-checks of projects/programmes, as Directorate of requested by the MEFCC MEFCC and  Commissions and coordinates joint monitoring MoFEC) missions (with development partners), as required  Commissions independent evaluations, as required  Produces quarterly reports  Produces annual performance assessment reports  Coordinates and hosts annual reflection meeting  Disseminates and posts approved reports to the public Federal  Ensures compliance of all CRGE financed and non- Implementing CRGE financed projects / programmes with the Entities (FIEs) NAP M&E system (including reporting requirements)  Develops and implements M&E plans for all CRGE ** Line and None CRGE financed projects / programmes Ministries (**M&E plans should be in line with both sectoral 93 M&E plans and the CRGE M&E system)  Supports RIEs and EEs (government & non- government) in implementing NAPs M&E plans  Monitors project/programme performance quarterly progress reports and annually performance assessment reports  Consolidates and aggregates project/programme performance data from across RIEs and federal- level EEs and generates quarterly progress and annual performance assessment reports  Leads mid-term review and impact assessment procedures (e.g. develops TORs, oversees review / evaluation, submits final report to MEFCC)  Focal points within line ministries coordinate the sector to ensure compliance on M&E Sector CRGE responsibilities, including working closely with the Units1 planning directorate and across all other directorates.  Supervises the monthly and quarterly Regional implementation of programmes / projects at all Implementing levels in the region Entities  Prepares quarterly (progress) and annual (RIEs) (assessment) reports and submits to relevant FIEs and BoEFCs & BoFED **Regional  Performs quarterly monitoring missions, as required Sector  Facilitates and hosts periodic joint monitoring Bureaus ** missions, as required and requested by the CRGE and FIE Regional  Responsible for bureau-level financial monitoring Environment, and reporting Forest and 94 Climate  Responsible for bureau-level monitoring and Change Office reporting (BoEFCs) and BoFEDs Executing  Executes and monitors CRGE financed projects / Entities programmes, and None CRGE financed Adaptation (including project /program including the project / Woreda programme M&E plan offices and  Generates monthly and quarterly progress reports Zone for submission to the relevant IE (RIEs, although in Departments) some cases, EEs may report directly to FIEs) Woreda Environment,  Responsible for woreda-level fiscal monitoring and Forest and reporting Climate Change Office  Responsible for woreda-level financial monitoring (WoEFO) and and reporting WoFEDs  Participates in monitoring missions in donors supported projects Contributors/ Donors  Negotiates additional monitoring and reporting requirements with MEFCC and MoFEC as part of any Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) First level 1a. Woreda executing entities (sector office and other Executing Entities) report on quarterly and annual basis to Woreda Inter Office technical committee Coordinators (Woreda Environment, 95 Forest and Climate Change and Economy & Finance Office) and regional sector bureaus. 1b.Woreda Inter Office technical committee Coordinators (Woreda Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Economy & Finance Office) consolidate quarterly and annual report of sector offices and submit them to Woreda Inter Office committee and Regional Inter Bureau committee technical Team coordinator (Regional Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Economy & Finance Bureau). Woreda Inter Office committees discuss the progress made with regard to NAP-ETH intervention (program/projects), major problems and challenge encountered during implementation and give possible solution that could address problems and challenge as per the level of mandate provided in the operational manual of the NAP-ETH. 1c. Zonal inter office (wherever appropriate) technical committee coodinators coordiante quarterly and annual report os sector offices and submit them to zonal approprate bureau. Second Level 2a. Where there are Executing Entities working with regional sector bureaus (also called Regional Implementing Entities), they should also consolidate quarterly and annual reports and submit them to regional sector Bureau and Regional Inter Bureau committee technical Team coordinator (Regional Environment Forest and Climate Change and Economy & Finance Bureau). 96 2b. Regional implementing sector bureaus consolidate quarterly and annual report submit to Regional Inter Bureau committee technical Team coordinator (Regional Environment Forest and Climate Change and Economy & Finance Bureau) and Federal Sector Offices 2c. Regional Inter Bureau committee technical Team consolidates quarterly and annual reports and submits them to Regional Inter Bureau committee and Federal technical team coordinator. Regional Inter Office committee discusses the progress of made regarding major intervention (NAP-ETH program/projects) and challenges encountered during implementation phase of NAP- ETH and gives possible solution that could tackle the challenge at Regional level as per the mandate given by operational manual of NAP-ETH. Third Level 3a. Federal implementing sector bureaus consolidate quarterly and annual report submit to the Federal technical Team Coordinator (within Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Ministry of Finance and Economy Cooperation). 3b. Where Executing Entities operate at the federal level, they report to federal Implementing Entities. 3c. Federal technical Team Coordinator consolidate mid-year and annual report submit to Federal MEFCC and MoFEC for discussion and approval. MEFCC and MoFEC give direction, guidance and support to identified potential problems. 3d. After obtaining endorsement and approval of the MEFCC and MoFEC, the report will be disseminated to contributors, 97 development partners and interested parties through including the media. MEFCC and MoFEC coordinate the overall implementation of the NAP-ETH M&E system. The reports prepared by the federal entities involved in the implementation of NAPs serve as a basis for the report prepared by MEFCC and MoFEC. M&E reports generate data to measure output and results against the NAP-ETH‟s performance indicators. MEFCC and MoFEC prepare quarterly and annual implementation assessment reports based on the information available from desk reviews (CRGE Directorate/Unit of Sectoral line Ministries) and field assessments. Inter-ministerial steering committee holds regular annual meeting to review the annual progress report. The committee discusses the status of major NAP-ETH initiatives (program/projects) and challenges encountered during implementation, and recommends possible solution to address challenge and facilitate the learning and sharing of emerging good practices. Due emphasis will be given to experiences and emerging best practices so as to generate a timely „learning and information sharing‟ culture among implementing bodies. Federal implementing agencies prepare and submit quarterly, and annual progress or implementation assessment reports to MEFCC and MoFEC. The reports include detailed information from the local level of government – woredas, kebeles and city government/administration. The report is prepared to monitor progress on a quarterly and annual basis. 98 Joint Monitoring Mission site visits The team of experts from MEFCC (M&E Directorate) and Federal Line Ministries (CRGE Directorate/Unit) will conduct visits to project sites quarterly and annually based on the agreed schedule in the project document and annual work plan to assess first hand project progress. Other Sectoral Implementing entities at regional and woreda level will also join these visits. A Field Visit Report will be prepared by the MEFCC and MoFEC or other implementing entities and will be circulated to MEFCC no less than 15 days after the visit to the project area. Links to Other M&E Systems The NAP-ETH M&E operates in the context of other M&E systems and links to them. Some examples of those other systems, explaining their relevance to NAP-ETH M&E are highlighted and presented in Table 9. 99 Table 8 - M&E systems in Ethiopia that relate to the NAP M&E system Example Description and Link to NAP-ETH M&E Growth and The CRGE has been mainstreamed in Ethiopia‟s five-year development plan GTPII (2015/2016 Transformation to 2019/2020) so as to ensure the realization of the vision of CRGE middle-income status by Plan (GTP II) 2025 in a climate-resilient green economy. A national M&E system is in place to track implementation of Ethiopia‟s five-year development plan, GTPII (2015/2016 to 2019/2020) including the CRGE goal and output. To this end a policy Matrix has been developed aimed at tracking progress of the implementation of National GTP II and Sectoral GTP II against performance indicators cited in the policy matrix. GTPII monitoring and reporting systems would track national results from implementation of the CRGE Strategy (including from both Facility-financed and non-Facility financed actions) based on the indicators stated in the policy Matrix. GTPII and NAP-ETH M&E systems adopt a common set of indicators to track the implementation of CRGE output outlined in the policy matrix. In this regard GTP II M&E system has been aligned with NAP-ETH M&E system. Sectoral CRGE The NAP-ETH M&E system outlines national, high-level results for sectors. Sector-specific 100 M&E systems M&E systems should detail outputs and activities but must also demonstrate alignment with these national-level NAP-ETH M&E results. CRGE Facility The Facility M&E system would track impact and outcome of Facility-financed CRGE M&E System projects/program (adaptation and mitigation). CRGE Facility M&E would track result of the implementation of similar project/program with that of non-Facility financed program/projects. In this regard the NAP-ETH M&E adopts a common set of indicators with CRGE Facility M&E and is aligned with CRGE Facility M&E particular indicators in relation to adaptation projects and program outputs, outcomes and impacts. M&E systems The M&E systems of a range of programs (PSNP, SML, etc.) will track data that is relevant for of existing and understanding impacts and outcomes of adaptation, and the performance of adaptation relevant initiatives. Links would be made between the M&E systems of relevant long term programs, sectoral and and the NAP-ETH M&E system will adapt indicators from these long term programs cross-sectoral programs 101 4.3 RESOURCES AND CAPACITIES REQUIRED FOR MONITORING AND EVALUATION Intensive capacity building activities will be carried out during the first five-year implementation period of the NAP-ETH in sector line ministries (CRGE Directorate/Unit), regions, city government/administrations, woreda and kebeles that are responsible for the implementation of NAP-ETHs, so as to ensure timely and accurate information flow and feedback for the M&E system of the NAP-ETH. Implementation agencies at federal, regional, and local levels need to have adequate human resources and equipped with sufficient M&E capacity so as to ensure the M&E system operates effective during the plan period. MEFCC and MoFEC will work in close collaboration with Implementation agencies at federal, regional, and local levels to facilitate access to technical assistances for M&E capacity development to realize the effective operation of the M&E system. The M&E section in the MEFCC will have technical and professional capacity responsible for processing the data collected from Ministries and institutions involved in the implementation of climate change adaptation programs/project. Approximately 5% of the cost of each operational program/project under the National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH) should be allocated specifically for this purpose in order to build funding capacities. 102 4.4 MONITORING AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY The methodology applied in monitoring and evaluation of the NAP- ETH will be based on the issues indicated in Table 7 and in Annex 2, which presents the Logical Framework Analysis (LFA) for implementation of the NAP-ETH. The data generated by sectoral line ministries, CRGE facility, National Plan commission and others Regional Bureaus will be used as an input to the M&E system. Data from census, surveys and administrative (sectoral line ministries) sources will also be used to generate report by MEFCC. According to the information obtained from the evaluation reports, policy documents, development strategies, project activity reports, training reports and study or research reports, as well as information generated by the Central Statistics Agency (CSA), and the National Planning Commission (NPC) have been identified as major sources of data for monitoring and evaluation of the NAP-ETH. The method of data collection employed in monitoring and evaluation of the NAP-ETH will include activity reports, meeting reports, survey, ad-hoc studies, and stakeholder consultation. MEFCC and MoFEC will be responsible for processing and compiling the data collected from ministries and institutions (CRGE Section) involved in the implementation of climate change adaptations. The ministries and institutions (CRGE Section) and other national institutions (CSA, NPC, NMA, etc.) will be 103 responsible for generating and providing data for MEFCC and MoFEC. 4.5 REVISION AND UPDATING PROCESS Reviews should be carried out as necessary so as to incorporate progress made, new adaptation challenges, social and environmental developments, new policies and national and international government undertakings. Reviews may be carried out in two ways:  A regular review carried out every five (5) years, e.g., to increase the effectiveness of the NAP-ETH;  Ad-hoc reviews, triggered by factors such as adaptation outcomes, the effectiveness of adaptation measures, variations observed compared to initial climate projections, changes in the vulnerability of development sectors, etc. A review must be carried out every five years in order to maximize the gains for sustainable development in Ethiopia, regardless of the changes made in relation to implementation of the NAP. The NAP- ETH should therefore be integrated into a continuous process of development planning related to the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) at the national level, which requires ongoing collaboration between the relevant stakeholders. All stakeholders that will be involved in the implementation of the NAP-ETH have to be involved in the review of the plan. A participatory approach will therefore be employed in the review. 104 4.6 EXTERNAL EVALUATION Mid-term and final evaluations must be carried out during the five- year implementation cycle of the NAP-ETH. A mid-term evaluation will be carried out at the end of the first half of the five-year cycle. It will focus on the effectiveness and efficiency of the first five-year implementation cycle of the NAP. A final evaluation will be carried out at the end of the five-year implementation cycle of the NAP-ETH so as draw lessons learned during the first five years of implementation. It will therefore be specifically aimed at the systematic and objective evaluation of progress made towards the anticipated outcomes of the NAP-ETH.

1. Projects will undergo an independent mid-term evaluation at the mid-point of project implementation. The mid-term evaluation will determine progress being made toward the achievement of outcomes and will identify course correction if needed. It will focus on the effectiveness, efficiency and timeliness of project implementation; it will highlight issues requiring decisions and actions; and it will present initial lessons learned about project design, implementation and management. Findings of this review will be incorporated as recommendations for enhanced implementation during the final half of the project‟s term.

2. Projects will also undergo final evaluations. An evaluation of project outcomes achieved at the end of the five-year cycle will take place at the end of the first five-year project implementation cycle and according to the plan indicated in the project document. Project final evaluations can be used as a basis for decisions aimed 105 at improving outcomes during the second five-year implementation cycle of the NAP. The final evaluation will focus on the delivery of the project‟s results as initially planned (and as corrected after the mid-term evaluation, if any such correction took place). The final evaluation should also provide recommendations for follow-up activities and requires a management or high-level response.

3. An independent final evaluation of the NAP-ETH will take place and be completed two months prior to the Inter ministerial Committee meeting. The final evaluation will look at impacts and sustainability of results, including the contribution to capacity development and the achievement the NAP-ETH objectives, impacts and it goal. Templates for Progress Reports, which will be used for regular reviews of progress made in relation to the National Adaptation Plan, and monitoring of outputs and impacts are shown in Annex 3. 106 REFERENCES AND SOURCES ACCRA (undated). The ACCRA Local Adaptive Capacity framework. Retrieved from http://community.accraconsortium.org/.59d669a7/ACCRA%20Local _Adaptive%20Policy_new.pdf EM-Dat (2011) See: http://www.emdat.be/country_profile/index.html - Ethiopia EPACC (2010). Ethiopia's Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), FDRE, 2010 FDRE (2011). Ethiopia‟s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Green economy strategy. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia FDRE (2015). Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia (2014). National Framework of Climate Resilient Health Sector. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia GTP II. Growth and Transformation Plan II. National Planning Commission, 2016, (2015/16-2019/20) Volume I: Main Text. See: http://dagethiopia.org/new/images/DAG_DOCS/GTP2_English_Tran slation_Final_June_21_2016.pdf INDC (2015) Ethiopia‟s Indicative National Determined Contributions – see: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents /Ethiopia/1/INDC-Ethiopia-100615.pdf IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. 107 Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp. Accessed at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report/ar4/wg2/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change, 2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/mindex.shtml Korecha, D. et al (2013). Recent Drought and Precipitation Tendencies in Ethiopia, in HYPERLINK "https://www.researchgate.net/journal/0177- 798X_Theoretical_and_Applied_Climatology" Theoretical and Applied Climatology 112(3-4): 535-551, May 2013. Accessed online at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240909629_Recent_drough t_and_precipitation_tendencies_in_Ethiopia MEF (2015). Ethiopia‟s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/ethnc2.pdf MoA- Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (2015). Ethiopia‟s Climate Resilient Green Economy. Climate Resilience Strategy Agriculture and Forestry. FDRE MoWE - Ministry of Water and Energy (2015). Ethiopia‟s Climate- Resilient Green Economy Climate Resilience Strategy: Water and Energy, FDRE NAPA (2008). Ethiopia‟s National Adaptation Plan of Action, June 2007; See http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/eth01.pdf NDRMC: National Disaster Risk Management Commission - profile/dppc.gov.et- accessed 29 December, 2016 NMA (2007). National Meteorological Agency - Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/eth01.pdf 108 NMSA (1996). National Meteorological Services Agency NPC (2016). The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) 2015/16-2019/20) Regional Adaptation Plans – not available on line Sectoral Adaptation Plans– not available on line - Climate Resilient Strategy for Agriculture and Forest, Climate Resilient Strategy Water and Energy Technology Need Assessment (TNA) (2007), Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment Report of Ethiopia, see: http://unfccc.int/ttclear/misc_/StaticFiles/gnwoerk_static/TNR_CRE/ e9067c6e3b97459989b2196f12155ad5/5059e1af89384cf18ca0402f7 1a73ea1.pdf UNFCCC (2010). Cancun Adaptation Framework. FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1. See: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf WDRP (2015) – Woreda Disaster Risk Profiles, provided by Ethiopia‟s National Disaster Risk Management Commission, see: http://profile.dppc.gov.et/ 109 ANNEXES 110

Annex 1: Risks and Vulnerable sectors within each Region with their existing coping mechanisms Vulnerable sectors and Impacts Existing Risks/ Region Agriculture/ Coping Hazards Livestock Health Forest Water & Energy Mechanisms Pastoral Afar Drought, Loss of cereal Livestock death, Malnutrition, Deforestation Degradation of water Migration of Flood, production in decreased livestock death, increased and degradation quality, decreased House hold Livestock limited agro production and water borne hydroelectric power, heads with disease, pastoral zones, productivity, loss of diseases, decrease Decreased amount of their conflict and increased price income, of productive water for Irrigation, livestock; Human disease of cereals humanpower Destruction of physical resource structures and roads sharing; food borrowing; eating wild fruits; selling more livestock; etc. 111 Amhara Flood, drought, Decreased food Decreased livestock Malaria, Deforestation, Lack potable water, Sell more human and production, loss production and Malnutrition, degradation decreased hydroelectric livestock than livestock of cultivable productivity, loss of Increased power, Decreased usual; diseases land, livelihood draught oxen power, communicable amount of water for consumption distribution due loss of grazing land diseases, decrease Irrigation, Destruction of crops rather to migration of productive of physical structures than sell; seek human power and roads alternative jobs; wild food eating; reduce expenditure on non- essential items; seasonal labor migration; etc. Benishan Flood, Crop damage, Trypanosomiasis, Malaria, Loss of Deforestation, Degradation of water Eating wild gul Gumz Drought, decreased soil decreased livestock Productive degradation, quality, increased canal fruit and Human and fertility, loss of production and manpower, wild fire sedimentation, tubers; animal productive productivity, loss of malnutrition, degradation of borrowing diseases, wild manpower and drought oxen power, Effects as a result indigenous forest money; fire, Crop pest, Price shock loss of income of heat waves, migration; Migration and Death seeking conflict additional jobs; community 112 supporting culture; Dire Flood, Loss of cereal Death, loss of draught Loss of Deforestation, Distraction on Sell more Dawa Drought, production oxen power, increased productive man degradation Irrigation physical livestock than Conflict, zoonotic diseases power, Death, structure usual; Human and Increased consumption livestock communicable of crops rather disease, disease due to than sell; seek lack of potable alternative water, jobs; reduce Malnutrition expenditure on non- essential items; seasonal labor migration; etc. 113 Gambella Flood, Erratic Loss of Cereal Death, Increased Malaria outbreak, Destruction of Increased volume of Eating wild Rainfall, Wild Production, loss communicable shortage of indigenous rivers, fruit; fire, Human of industrial diseases, loss of potable water, forests, consumption and Livestock crops, loss of livestock production death increased soil of cereals disease and income, loss of and productivity, erosion, land rather than Crop Pest, cultivable land decreased fish degradation selling; conflict production, loss of migration; pasture seek alternative jobs; sell more livestock than usual; sell of non- productive assets; sending children for work to urban areas; sell charcoal and fire wood; etc. 114 Oromia Flood, drought, Decreased food Decreased livestock Malaria, Deforestation, Lack potable water, Migration; human and production, loss production and Malnutrition, degradation, decreased hydroelectric elders conflict livestock of cultivable productivity, loss of Increased wild fire power, Decreased resolution diseases, land, livelihood drought oxen power, communicable amount of water for mechanisms; Conflict distribution due loss of grazing land diseases, decrease Irrigation, Destruction support to migration of Productive of physical structures drought oxen human power and roads power; give milk cows for neighbors; seed support; sell more livestock than usual; increase working hours; sending children for work; sell of non- productive assets; limit portion size of meals; rely on less preferred and cheap foods; etc. 115 SNNPR Flood, Crop Loss of Cereals Loss of pasture and Increased Deforestation, Lack potable water, Eating wild Pest, Drought production, loss water, decreased communicable degradation decreased hydroelectric fruit; of income livestock production disease, decrease power; Decreased consumption and productivity, loss of productive amount of water for of cereals of draught oxen human power, Irrigation; Destruction rather than power malaria, death of physical structures selling; and roads migration; seek alternative jobs; sell more livestock than usual; sell of non- productive assets; sending children for work to urban areas; sell charcoal and fire wood, gum and incense; etc. 116 Somali Drought, Decreased crop Death, Loss of Malnutrition, Deforestation, Shortage of potable Migration of Flood, Human production, livestock production Increased water land water, increased flood House hold and livestock Increased cereal and productivity, borne diseases, degradation, occurrences in some heads with and crop price, Crop Price shock, Loss of decrease of Soil erosion by zones their disease, pests and pasture and water productive human wind livestock; conflict, soil disease which results in power elders conflict erosion by migration, loss of resolution wind, Price income mechanisms; shock resource sharing; food borrowing; eating wild fruits; selling more livestock; etc. Tigray Flood, hill Loss of cereal Livestock diseases, Malaria, Deforestation, Destruction of dams, Sell more storm, drought, production, Loss of livestock Increased land degradation loss livestock than Diseases, Increased cereal production and communicable usual; Conflict prices, Crop productivity diseases, consumption pests and malnutrition, of crops rather disease productive human than sell; seek power decrease, alternative death jobs; wild food eating; reduce expenditure 117 on non- essential items; seasonal labor migration; etc. 118

Annex 2: LFA for implementation of NAP-ETH No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection Goal: Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change reduced by building adaptive capacity and resilience 1 Food security  Climate change  % Increase in yield per  Agriculture  Ministry of  Relevant enhanced through adaptation proactively hectare (tons) program/project Agriculture and climate improved mainstreamed in the  % Increase in agro bio- performance Natural information agricultural agriculture sector, diversity index values reports Resources (observations, productivity in a including programs and  PSNP reports  Agricultural forecasts,  % of targeted population climate-smart8 projects and in regional Transformation longer-term (women/men) adopting  Agriculture sector manner agricultural strategies Agency projections) is one or more climate- reviews/evaluations and plans available at the smart agricultural  Academic and  Agricultural productivity appropriate practices Research increased scale and in  % of targeted population Institutions useful formats  Agricultural diversity (women/men) that are  Central Statistics to support enhanced food secure Agency adaptation  Climate-smart planning and 7 Some assumptions cut across all adaptation options, these assumptions include: existence of critical mass of experts and sufficient resources; existence efficient fund management and budget administration; functioning policies, strategies, plans and guidelines; strong public engagement and participatory management systems; cooperation and integration between all implementing entities; 8 In this document, references to climate-smart approaches are understood to emphasize those approaches that support adaptation and resilience building. Climate change mitigation may be a co-benefit of these practices. 119 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection agricultural practices climate-smart adopted, particularly by decision- small-scale farmers making in  Increased food security agriculture for vulnerable  Focus of households innovation in the area of climate smart agriculture is primarily on methods and techniques related to adaptation by small scale farmers 2 Access to potable  Investments in water  # of people  Human health  Ministry of Water  Community water improved infrastructure take likely (women/men) receiving index reports Irrigation and participation climate change impacts potable water from new  Water program/ Electricity and cooperation into account or rehabilitated systems project  Ministry of between all  Stability of access to and sources performance Health stakeholders potable water improved  % of targeted population reports exist  Municipalities especially in periods of (women/men) with year-  Water sector  Relevant  Ethiopia Water 120 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection high climate stress and round access to safe reviews/evaluations Technology climate during periods of drinking water Institute information increased demand  Central Statistics (observations, Agency forecasts, longer-term  National Planning projections) is Commission available at the appropriate scale and in useful formats to support adaptation planning in the water sector 121 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection 3 Sustainable  Sustainable natural  # of SNRM plans  Agriculture and  Ministry of  Valuation of natural resources resource management integrating adaptation NRM Livestock and ecosystem management (SNRM) prioritized in developed for vulnerable program/project Fisheries services strengthened vulnerable landscapes landscapes performance  Ministry of instituted through  SNRM planning takes  # of hectares of reports Agriculture and  Relevant safeguarding type and extent of vulnerable landscapes  PSNP reports Natural climate landscapes and expected climate change where SNRM plans Resources information  Natural resource watersheds impacts into account integrating adaptation (observations, sector  Central Statistics  Resilience of rangelands are implemented reviews/evaluations Agency forecasts, and watersheds longer-term  Ethiopian increased projections) is Agriculture available at the Research Institute appropriate  Ethiopian scale and in Environment and useful formats Forestry Research to support Institute adaptation  National Planning planning in the Commission natural resource sector 122 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection 4 Soil water  Increased use of durable  # of  PSNP reports  Ministry of  Relevant and harvesting and rainwater harvesting households/communities  Natural resource Agriculture and adoptable water retention methods at households harvesting rainwater sector Natural technologies mechanisms and community levels  # of hectares of land program/project Resources are readily improved  Increased where SWC measures performance  Central Statistics available, implementation of soil have been implemented reports Agency suitable for use and water conservation and accessible  % of target population  Natural resource  Ethiopian (SWC) measures to vulnerable (women/men) better able sector Agriculture households  Negative effects of to manage rainfall reviews/evaluations Research Institute rainfall variability on variability  Ethiopian agriculture and natural Environment and resources reduced Forestry Research Institute  National Planning Commission 5 Human health  Environment and  % of target population  Health index  Ministry of  Integrated systems health surveillance covered by reports Health human health improved protocols and systems environment and  Health  Institute of infrastructure through the enhanced to take health surveillance project/program Public Health and implementation account of climate systems integrating performance institutional  Universities, of changes change information climate change reports framework and Research based on affecting health  % of health workers exist  Health sector Centers integrated health factors aware of climate  Relevant reviews/evaluatio and  Increased awareness change impacts climate ns 123 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection environmental of health impacts of information surveillance climate change (observations, protocol forecasts, longer-term projections) is available at the appropriate scale and in useful formats to support adaptation planning in the health sector 6 Ecosystem  Increased awareness of  % of conservation  Environment and  Ministry of  Capacity to resilience climate change impacts practitioners aware of biodiversity Agriculture and analyze improved on ecosystems climate change impacts conservation Natural ecosystem through  Conservation planning on ecosystems project/program Resources resilience is takes climate change  # of conservation plans performance  Central Statistics available conserving into account addressing climate reports Agency biodiversity  Ecosystem resilience impacts on ecosystems  Ethiopian maintained/increased  # of hectares conserved Agriculture in ways that build Research Institute 124 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection ecosystem resilience  Ethiopian Environment and Forestry Research Institute  National Planning Commission  Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute 125 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection 7 Sustainable forest  Increased awareness of  % of forestry  Forestry sector  Ministry of  Functioning management climate change impacts practitioners aware of reviews/evaluations Environment land use plan enhanced on forests climate change impacts  Forestry project Forestry and enforced  Forest management and on forests and program Climate Change  Relevant governance systems  # of hectares of land performance  Ethiopian climate integrate climate change afforested/ reforested reports Environment and information adaptation  # of hectares of natural Forestry Research (observations,  Afforestation and forests conserved Institute forecasts, reforestation enhanced  Central Statistics longer-term  # of measures Agency projections) is  Natural forests implemented to reduce available at the conserved climate change impacts appropriate  Reduced impacts of on forests scale and in climate change on useful formats forests to support adaptation planning in the forest sector 8 Social protection  Social groups that are  % of targeted vulnerable  Vulnerability  Ministry of  Functioning and livelihood particularly vulnerable to people (women/men) assessment reports Agriculture and social options of the climate change identified benefiting from  PSNP reports Natural protection vulnerable people and drivers of livelihood diversification Resources mechanism is built vulnerability assessed  % of vulnerable people  Central Statistics institutionalized 126 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection  Livelihood options of (women/men) with Agency vulnerable people access to social  Ethiopian diversified protection mechanisms Agriculture when affected by climate Research Institute shocks  Ethiopian Environment and Forestry Research Institute  National Planning Commission  Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute 9 Alternative and  Access to alternative and  % of target population  Energy sector  Ministry of  Effective renewable power renewable power (women/men) with reviews/evaluations Environment, alternative and generation and increased stable access to Forestry and renewable management  Stability of energy alternative and Climate Change energy enhanced systems increased renewable energy  Central Statistics management  # of energy system Agency systems exist designs that take climate  Ministry of  Relevant change into account Water, Irrigation climate and Electricity information (observations,  Ethiopian Electric forecasts, and Power longer-term 127 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection Corporation projections) is  Ministry of available at the Mining and appropriate Natural Gas scale and in useful formats  Universities to support  Research adaptation institutions planning in the energy sector 10 Resilience of the  Increased awareness of  % of urban planners  Climate change  Ministry of Urban  Relevant urban system climate change impacts aware of climate change resilience reports and Development climate increased in urban environments impacts in urban  Economic  Municipalities information  Urban land use plans environments development (observations,  Central Statistics integrate climate change reports forecasts,  # of urban areas where Agency adaptation longer-term land use plans  Urban sector  Research projections) is  Urban agriculture integrating adaptation performance Institutions available at the developed are implemented reports  Universities appropriate  # of hectares of urban  Central Statistics scale and in agriculture developed Agency useful formats to support adaptation planning in the urban sector 11 Sustainable  Adaptive transport  % of transport  Transport sector  Ministry of  Capacity of transport system infrastructure created infrastructure designs performance report Transport mobilizing 128 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection built  Sustainable transport that take climate change  National transport  Central Statistics huge resources infrastructure design impacts into account performance report Agency exist system developed with  # of kilometers of  Research  Relevant consideration of climate institutions climate climate-vulnerable change impacts information transportation  Universities  Climate-vulnerable infrastructure (observations, transportation reconstructed forecasts, infrastructure is suitably longer-term enhanced  #/type of adaptive projections) is infrastructure systems available at the constructed appropriate scale and in useful formats to support adaptation planning in the transport sector 12 Adaptive industry  Vulnerable industries  # of industries adopting  Industry sector  Ministry of  Environmental system developed take climate change climate change performance report Industry impact adaptation adaptation  National industry  Central Statistics assessment and considerations into strategies/considerations development Agency strategic impact account in management  % cost and energy reports assessment  Research and planning savings due to efficiency enforced Institutions  Efficient and measures  Universities environmentally sound  # of hectares protected production systems from environmental 129 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection developed impact  Socially responsible  # of people benefitting industries promoted from socially responsible industries 13 Endogenous  Climate-resilient  % of targeted  National and  Ministry of Relevant climate adaptation livelihood practices population regional Environment information practices promoted (women/men) adopting performance report Forestry and (observations, mainstreamed  Local climate knowledge one or more climate-  Climate change Climate Change forecasts, longer- and scientific knowledge resilient livelihood activities  Ministry of term projections) integrated practices implementation Agriculture and is available at the report Natural appropriate scale  Effective endogenous  # of dialogues/planning Resources and in useful adaptation practices processes where local formats to scaled up and scientific climate  Ministry of support dialogue knowledge are Livestock and and integration integrated Fisheries with local  Ministry of Labor knowledge  # of community and Social Affairs watershed/rangeland plans integrating  Central Statistics endogenous adaptation Agency practices 14 Efficient value  Climate risks to value  # of value chain climate  National economic  Ministry of  Efficient crop chain and chains assessed risks assessments performance report Environment and livestock marketing system  Livestock and crop value completed  Agricultural Forestry and marketing developed chains enhanced  % of value chain actors development report Climate Change systems exist 130 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection  Reduced climate impacts (women/men) actively  Ministry of on value chains managing climate risks Agriculture and Natural Resources  Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries  Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs  Central Statistics Agency 15 Drought and crop  Farmers and herders  # of insurance  DRMC  Ministry of  Enabling insurance insured against climate companies offering performance report Environment financial mechanisms risks drought and crop  National and Forestry and mechanisms strengthened  Insurance agencies insurance regional Climate Change exist to capacitated to provide  % of target population performance  Ministry of accommodate drought and crop (women/men) with reports Agriculture and drought and insurance insurance Natural crop insurance  Insurance reports Resources  Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries  Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs  Central Statistics 131 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection Agency 16 Early warning  Early warning prediction  % of target population  DRMC  Ministry of  Strong systems improved and communication (women/men) with performance report Environment collaboration systems improved access to early warning  National and Forestry and and integration  Vulnerable people have systems regional Climate Change exist between access to early warnings  # of agencies with better performance report  Ministry of data providers for climate hazards preparedness for climate Agriculture and and hazards Natural implementers  Communication mechanisms created Resources  Communication between early warning  Ministry of Urban systems enable and implementing Development and wide agencies Housing dissemination of early  Ministry of Labor warnings and Social Affairs  Disaster Risk Management Commission  National Meteorology Agency 17 Adaptation  Technology needs  # of people  Technology  Ministry of  Integration technologies assessed for vulnerable (women/men) assessment and Environment mechanisms developed sectors/groups benefitting from adoption reports Forestry and between local  Relevant adaptation adaptation technologies Climate Change and imported technologies developed  Ministry of technologies 132 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection and adopted Agriculture and exist Natural Resources  Ministry of Urban Development and Housing Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs  Disaster Risk Management Commission  National Metrology Agency  Ministry of Health  National Planning Commission  Central Statistics Agency  Ministry of Labor and Social Affair 18 Adaptation  Information and  # of research products  Annual research  Ministry of  Sufficient research and knowledge needs for produced that address reports Environment research funds development adaptation assessed and climate change Forestry and 133 No. Specific Expected Results Indicators Means of Entity Assumptions7 objectives verification responsible for and risks data collection reinforced relevant research adaptation/consider Climate Change available strategies developed climate change impacts  Ministry of  Collaborative  Increased support for  Documented cases of Agriculture and partnerships and/or availability of research informing Natural exist between adaptation-focused climate-adaptive policies Resources research, research and/or research and practices  Ministry of Urban academic, that considers climate Development and training and change impacts Housing Ministry implementing  Demonstrated uptake of of Labor and institutions research results related Social Affairs to climate change  Disaster Risk adaptation Management Commission  National Metrology Agency  Ministry of Health  National Planning Commission  Central Statistics Agency 134 Annex 3: Template that will be used for regular reviews National Adaptation Plan Planned Implemented Implementation Activities not Explanation of discrepancies activities activities rate % implemented Strategic priority 1 Activity 1: Activity 2: Activity 3: Strategic priority 2 Activity 1: Activity 2: 135 Activity 3: Strategic priority 3 Activity 1: Activity 2: Activity 3: Strategic priority 4 Activity 1: Activity 2: Activity 3: Strategic priority 5 136 Activity 1: Activity 2: Activity 3: Activity 3: Strategic priority 6 Activity 1: Activity 2: Activity 3: Strategic priority 7 Activity 1: 137 Activity 2: Activity 3: 138 Annex 3.1.National Adaptation Plan Outcome Monitoring Planned Implemented Implementation Activities not Explanation of discrepancies activities activities rate % implemented Strategic priority 1 Outcome 1: Outcome 2: Outcome 3: Strategic priority 2 Outcome 1: Outcome 2: 139 Outcome 3: Strategic priority 3 Outcome 1: Outcome 2: Outcome 3: Strategic priority 4 Outcome 1: Outcome 2: Outcome 3: Strategic priority 5 140 Outcome 1: Outcome 2: Outcome 3: Strategic priority 6 Outcome 1: Outcome 2: Outcome 3: Strategic priority 7 Outcome 1: Outcome 2: 141 Outcome 3: 142 Annex 3.2. National Adaptation Plan impact monitoring Planned activities Implemented Implementation Activities not Explanation of discrepancies activities rate % implemented Strategic priority 1 Specific objective 1: Specific objective 2: Specific objective 3: Strategic priority 2 Specific objective 1: Specific objective 2: 143 Specific objective 3: Strategic priority 3 Specific objective 1: Specific objective 2: Specific objective 3: Strategic priority 4 Specific objective 1: Specific objective 2: Specific objective 3: Strategic priority 5 144 Specific objective 1: Specific objective 2: Specific objective 3: 145

Annex 3.3: Summary of Prioritized Adaptation Options from All Regions This is just the start in prioritization Process – not final result!!! Just indications!! Region Prioritized Adaptation Options SNNPR AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a climate-smart manner AO4 Improving soil and water harvesting and water retention mechanisms AO8 Building social protection and livelihood options of vulnerable people Amhara AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a climate-smart manner AO3 Strengthening sustainable natural resource management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds AO7 Enhancing sustainable forest management AO8 Building social protection and livelihood options of vulnerable people TIgray AO3 Strengthening sustainable natural resource management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds AO7 Enhancing sustainable forest management AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a climate-smart manner AO8 Building social protection and livelihood options of vulnerable people Oromia AO3 Strengthening sustainable natural resource management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds 146 AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a climate-smart manner AO2 Improving access to potable water Dire Dawa AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a and Harar climate-smart manner AO3 Strengthening sustainable natural resource management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds AO10 Increasing resilience of urban systems Somali AO3 Strengthening sustainable natural resource management through safeguarding landscapes and watersheds AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a climate-smart manner AO16 Improving early warning systems AO10 Increasing resilience of urban systems Benishangul- AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a Gumuz and climate-smart manner Gambela AO17 Developing and using adaptation technologies AO2 Improving access to potable water Afar AO1 Enhancing food security by improving agricultural productivity in a climate-smart manner AO4 Improving soil and water harvesting and water retention mechanisms AO2 Improving access to potable water 147