Zimbabwe’s El Niño-Induced Drought: Strategies and Measures for Mitigation and Resilience Building

1 ZIMBABWE ZIMBABWE’S EL NINO-INDUCED DROUGHT: STRATEGIES AND MEASURES FOR MITIGATION AND RESILIENCE BUILDING BY MINISTER OF LANDS, AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES, WATER AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 27 MAY 2024 2 1.0. BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 1.1. Zimbabwe’s policy and strategy for agriculture are guided by Vision 2030 and the National Development Strategy (NDS1). 1.2. At sector level, the Agriculture and Food Systems Transformation Strategy (AFSTS) was launched by the President, His Excellency, Dr. E.D. Mnangagwa in August 2020 to create a USD 8.2 billion industry by 2025. By 2022, the sector had grown to USD 9.9 billion. The AFSTS was accordingly upgraded to the Agriculture, Food Systems and Rural Transformation Strategy (AFSRTS) in 2023 to create a USD 13.75 billion industry by 2025. The AFSRTS is attached for ease of reference. 1.3. The AFSRTS is anchored on climate-proofing agriculture, in the context of climate change, as Zimbabwe and the whole of the Southern African region are predicted to become drier in the decades ahead. For example, dryland maize production, under conservative-climate change scenarios, will decrease by an average 17% by 2050 in Zimbabwe. 1.4. Zimbabwe has adopted a twin-pronged approach to climate-proofing agricultural production since 2020, which has seen Zimbabwe return to national cereal sufficiency in normal rainfall years. 1.4.1. At the small-holder level, the sustainable intensive conservation model, Pfumvudza/Intwasa, with attendant agro-ecological matching of crops, launched in the 2020/2021 summer season, has largely worked well (Fig 1), but it too is ultimately a rain fed practice, requiring rainfall for its success (Table 1). 1.4.2. At the national level, Cabinet approved the Accelerated Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Plan in 2021, with the aim of developing 350 000 ha for summer irrigation by 2025, to produce 1.8 million MT summer cereals annually, at 5MT/ha, enough to feed the population and generate a surplus annually. This target excludes feed requirement of 400 000MT, equivalent to 80 000 ha under irrigation. 3 Fig 1: General Performance of Conventional and Pfvumvudza in a good season Table 1: Yields under Conventional and Pfumvudza in a drought year Province Sorghum 2023/2024 Maize 2023/2024 Conventional Yield (Mt/ha) Pfumvudza/ Intwasa Yield (Mt/ha) Conventional Yield (Mt/Ha) Pfumvudza/ Intwasa Yield (Mt/ha) Manicaland 0.13 0.21 0.41 0.50 Mashonaland Central 0.21 0.22 0.28 0.30 C Conventional and Pfumvudza Yield Comparison in 2022/23 Season: Maize and Sorghum Maize Sorghum Pfumvudza Conventional 4 Province Sorghum 2023/2024 Maize 2023/2024 Conventional Yield (Mt/ha) Pfumvudza/ Intwasa Yield (Mt/ha) Conventional Yield (Mt/Ha) Pfumvudza/ Intwasa Yield (Mt/ha) Mashonaland East 0.06 0.19 0.35 0.38 Mashonaland West 0.21 0.26 0.47 0.21 Masvingo 0.17 0.27 0.35 0.34 Matabeleland North 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 Matabeleland South 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05 Midlands 0.08 0.17 0.07 0.14 Average Yield 0.15 0.18 0.26 0.29 A 20% increase in sorghum yield and 11.5% increase in maize yield, with bigger yield differences in drier provinces for sorghum than maize, emphasizing the importance of a combination of a drought-tolerant crop and Pfumvudza as a choice for future climate-proofing interventions, especially, in drier regions. 1.5. As approved by Cabinet in 2022, a revised Strategic Grain Reserve of 1.5 million MT (maize 1.2 million MT and traditional grains 0.3 million MT) is to be established, from the current 0.75 million MT, necessitating grain silo expansion to 1.25 million MT holding capacity, in the first phase. 1.6. As approved by Cabinet in 2023, the Agricultural and Rural Development Authority (ARDA) was designated the food security agent for the nation in 2023, with a target to annually produce 500 5 000 MT of summer cereals from 100,000 ha irrigable area, and 300 000 MT of winter cereals from 60 000 ha irrigable area. ARDA would produce on: a) Its estates, with 20,179 ha arable land on 23 estates, with 2 500 ha under irrigation, and under Joint Venture production. b) Irrigation schemes, with a plan for 460 irrigation schemes on 26 000 ha when fully developed, but currently 241 schemes on 19 000 ha and; c) Joint Ventures on A1 and A2 farms. 1.7. Following this season’s devastating El Nino-induced drought, the President declared a National State of Disaster on 3 April 2024. The declaration has an indicative resource requirement of USD 2 billion, for mitigation excluding USD 717 million for resilience building. 1.8. The agriculture sector’s requirement is USD 2,732,936,752 for (a) search and rescue USD 2, 3 million, mitigation USD 2,013,277,560, and USD 717,359,192 for resilience building. 1.9. Zimbabwe must emerge from this drought stronger and better-able to withstand future climate- induced shocks. 1.10. This memorandum provides an update on the broader agricultural interventions with a focus on mitigation and resilience building strategies and measures. 1.11. The interventions are classed as: 1.11.1. Cereals 1.11.2. Horticulture 1.11.3. Livestock 1.11.4. Fisheries 1.11.5. Water and Irrigation 6 2.0. INTERVENTIONS 2.1. CEREALS Table 2.1: Cereal Requirements and Availability under Different Scenarios MLAFWRD Planning Production Scenario 10 kg/pp/month SADC Regional Average 8.5 kg/pp/month Zimbabwe Actual 2017 7.7 kg/pp/month Human requirement (MT) 1,800,000 1,530,000 1,386,000 Livestock requirements (MT) 400,000 400,000 400,000 Total (MT) 2,200,000 1,930,000 1,786,000 Available grains and cereals (MT) [SGR plus expected harvest] 1,187,575 1,187,575 1,187,575 Winter SGR 248,000 248,000 248,000 Shortfall -764,425 -494,425 -350,425 7 Table 2.2: Cereal Balance Sheet: Projected Intake and Drawdowns for Maize, Traditional Grains and Wheat to April 2025 May June July Augu st Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan- 25 Feb- 25 Mar- 25 Apr- 25 Total s Opening Stock 426,088 380, 757 373, 585 391, 513 386, 584 353, 055 376,6 26 392, 007 369, 288 284, 669 200, 050 107,3 31 426, 088 Maize and Traditional grains 166,924 141,8 52 134,6 80 152,6 08 147,6 79 99,15 0 37,72 1 7,721 7,721 7,721 7,721 7,721 166,9 24 Wheat 259,164 238,9 05 238,9 05 238,9 05 238,9 05 253,9 05 338,9 05 384,2 86 361,5 67 276,9 48 192,3 29 99,61 0 259,1 64 Intake 21,000 47,0 00 64,0 00 56,5 00 51,0 00 100, 000 100,0 00 70,0 00 - - - 3,000 512, 500 Maize and Traditional grains 21,000 47,00 0 64,00 0 56,50 0 21,00 0 - - - - - - 3,000 212,5 00 Wheat - - - - 30,00 0 100,0 00 100,0 00 70,00 0 - - - - 300,0 00 Total stock 447,088 427, 757 437, 585 448, 013 437, 584 453, 055 476,6 26 462, 007 369, 288 284, 669 200, 050 110,3 31 938, 588 Maize and Traditional grains 187,924 188,8 52 198,6 80 209,1 08 168,6 79 99,15 0 37,72 1 7,721 7,721 7,721 7,721 10,72 1 379,4 24 8 Wheat 259,164 238,9 05 238,9 05 238,9 05 268,9 05 353,9 05 438,9 05 454,2 86 361,5 67 276,9 48 192,3 29 99,61 0 559,1 64 Out-take and Consumption (Social Welfare and Millers) 66,331 54,1 72 46,0 72 61,4 29 84,5 29 76,4 29 84,61 9 92,7 19 84,6 19 84,6 19 92,7 19 84,61 9 912, 876 Maize and Traditional grain-Social Welfare 46,072 46,07 2 46,07 2 61,42 9 61,42 9 61,42 9 30,00 0 - - - - - 352,5 03 Maize and Traditional grain-Zunde raMambo 8,100 8,100 16,20 0 Wheat- Social Welfare - - - - - - 39,61 9 69,61 9 69,61 9 69,61 9 69,61 9 69,61 9 387,7 14 Wheat- Zunde raMambo 8,100 8,100 16,20 0 Wheat- Millers 20,259 - - - 15,00 0 15,00 0 15,00 0 15,00 0 15,00 0 15,00 0 15,00 0 15,00 0 140,2 59 Closing balance 380,757 373, 585 391, 513 386, 584 353, 055 376, 626 392,0 07 369, 288 284, 669 200, 050 107, 331 25,71 2 25,7 12 9 Maize and Traditional grains 141,852 134,6 80 152,6 08 147,6 79 99,15 0 37,72 1 7,721 7,721 7,721 7,721 7,721 10,72 1 10,72 1 Wheat 238,905 238,9 05 238,9 05 238,9 05 253,9 05 338,9 05 384,2 86 361,5 67 276,9 48 192,3 29 99,61 0 14,99 1 14,99 1 Assumptions  The maize and traditional intake is based mainly on projected deliveries by ARDA and AFC contracted farmers which are estimated at 150 000 MT and 60 000 MT respectively.  The projected wheat intake is 300 000 MT. Table 2.3: Cereal Mitigation and Resilience Strategies and Measures Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience Cereals  Village-based Assessment indicates 6 of 9.2. million rural people will require assistance  2nd Round of Crops, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment (CLAFA 2) indicates all except two USD 1, 500,000 576 000 MT requirement for 6 million people for 12 months, down from 780 000 MT requirement for 9.2 million people, of which 405 000 MT 70%) is available to provide 7.5Kg/pp/month May to September (270 000 MT) and 8.5kg/pp/month USD 189 000 000 worth of grain is available in the SGR $132,000,000 is required to purchase 300 000  All farmers receiving social welfare must adopt Pfumvudza /Intwasa, to increase adoption from 51% to 100% in the 2024/2025 season  Area and Yield Index Insurance for all Pfumvudza for 3.5 million farmers USD150,000,000 $1,000,000 10 Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience districts have grain production shortages  Zimbabwe Livelihoods Assessment Committee (ZIMLAC) rural assessment underway  ZIMLAC Urban Assessment indicates 1.7 million people are food insecure October to March (306 000MT); Social Welfare of 171 000MT to be met from: ARDA/AFC summer production of 212 000 MT from 46 000 ha irrigated maize and 248 000 MT wheat SGR through ARDA on 60 000ha and 9750 MT on 3250 ha maize/sorghum this winter for October harvest.  As contingency Government to Import 300 000 MT maize  Grain movement from areas with surplus to areas with deficit.  GMB/Silo roller meal to stabilize urban mealie meal prices  Development of the Agriculture MT of wheat at 440/MT  100 % Agro- ecological matching from 60% in 2024 summer season  Summer irrigation increase from 75 000 to 350 000 ha to produce 1,8 million MT against a requirement of 1.4 million MT for human consumption  A revised Strategic Grain Reserve of 1.5 million MT (maize 1.2 million MT and traditional grains 0.3 million MT) is to be established, from the current 0.75 million MT, necessitating grain silo expansion to 1.25 million MT holding capacity, in the first phase. $6,000,000 $150 000 000 $ 20,000,000 11 Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience Information Management System  Promote adoption of irrigated Pfumvudza/Intwasa supplementing water at critical stages by all households from about 51% to 90%  ARDA to produce 45%, 800 000MT summer cereals and 300 000MTY winter cereals from 2025summer season, from 150 000MT summer and 300 000MT winter production in 2024.  Development of the 2024/2025 Summer Plan to be ready by Mid-June 2024  Capacitation of Institutions, workers and farmers  Enhanced Coordination 12 2.2. HORTICULTURE Table 2.4: Vegetable combos, sweet potato vines and trees distribution update Programme Programme Overall Target 2024 Annual Target Progres s to Date % Achievement of target of 2024 Irish Potato (ha) *6,750 6 750* 1,912 28 Sweet Potato Vines (number) 90,000,000 2,000,00 0 1,294,00 0 65 Fruit trees (number) 18,000,000 200,000 50,000 25 Vegetable Combos (number) 3,500,000 3,500,00 0 1,329,12 8 40  Target Area for Winter Irish potato Production Table 2.5 Number of Villages by Natural Region by Province PROVINCE Natural Region 1 Natural Region 2A Natural Region 2B Natural Region 3 Natural Region 4 Natural Region 5 TOTAL Manicaland 266 172 203 1192 693 296 2822 Mashonaland East 0 465 1316 1430 1033 0 4244 Mashonaland Central 0 462 696 203 1429 545 3335 13 Mashonaland West 0 465 1944 1213 480 0 4102 Masvingo 0 0 0 1160 2588 4944 8692 Matabeleland North 0 0 0 443 1961 801 3205 Matabeleland South 0 0 3 123 1274 1018 2418 Midlands 0 77 251 1469 2351 2194 6342 Total 266 1641 4413 7233 11809 9798 35160 The focus of the development of the 10 000 Village Business Units will be in agro-ecological regions 4 and 5, across all provinces. The drilling rigs have been re-distributed according to the number of villages by province as shown in Table 2.7. Initially, because of the drought the focus would be to establish a Village Business Unit in each of the water- and pasture-scarce wards, potentially 1000 of the 1620 rural wards. The ZINWA revised drilling map is shown in Fig 2 14 Fig 2: ZINWA Drilling Map 15 Table 2.6: Business Units, Boreholes Drilled, Boreholes equipped and Boreholes solarized Province Boreholes drilled to date Boreholes equipped with Hand pumps Boreholes solarised to date VBU SBU CBU YBU Manicaland 429 74 20 41 9 1 1 Mashonaland West 206 35 1 12 2 0 0 Mashonaland East 290 69 19 14 9 2 0 Midlands 300 101 14 32 2 0 0 Matabeleland South 172 49 7 6 3 0 1 Masvingo 535 136 5 16 8 0 5 Bulawayo 79 52 1 1 0 0 Harare 346 83 60 5 0 0 Matabeleland North 204 89 22 9 0 16 1 Mashonaland Central 328 48 7 26 4 2 1 Totals 2890 736 156 157 42 21 9 229 *VBU=Village Business Unit, SBU=School Business Unit, CBU=Chief Business Unit, YBU=Youth Business Unit 16 The boreholes drilled by RIDA, ZINWA and various partners are indicated in Table 2.7, these are being assessed for suitability for conversion to VBUs inn the drought areas. Table 2.7: Boreholes Drilled by RIDA and ZINWA and Various Partners ZIMBABWE Total Water Points Boreholes Dry Break down D/Wells Dry Break down PWS Dry Break down BHs Drilled but not Equipped Manicaland 9,065 6,760 75 435 2,305 18 220 574 0 30 0 Mashonaland Central 4,942 3,670 100 205 1,272 54 198 189 0 27 0 Mashonaland East 6,638 5,157 97 436 1,481 112 113 336 0 26 0 Mashonaland West 6,332 5,677 92 899 655 55 66 219 0 39 21 Masvingo 8,099 6,332 461 550 1,767 459 240 259 8 3 16 Matabeleland North 4,579 3,643 45 225 936 95 169 226 0 17 32 Matabeleland South 6,709 4,501 186 829 2,208 170 427 373 0 63 9 Midlands 7,376 6,264 135 1,226 1,112 90 160 231 0 30 0 Total 26,763 20,740 827 2830 6,023 814 996 1,089 8 113 57 17 Table 2.8: Update on Development of Business Units Provi nce Total no. of Busines s Units to be establis hed by Novemb er 2024 Mont hly BU targ ets BU Daily Target s Numbe r of teams require d per day to achiev e set daily targets Number of teams currently on the ground Cumulative capacity tests performed Materials delivered Cumulat ive number of Busines s Units Establis hed in region 4&5 Total Busin ess Units Establ ished Total villa ges in Regi on 4& 5 Manic aland 824 103 4 8 1 cap test and 7 installation teams 85 (61successfu l) 25 solar panels,10 tank stands,5 pressure tanks 15 52 2,822 Mash East 1240 155 5 10 7 cap test and 7 installation teams 76 (61 successful) Materials for 6 gardens 10 30 4,244 Masvi ngo 2544 318 11 22 6 cap test and 7 installation teams 347 (245 successful) 5 incomplete sets 10 29 8,692 18 Harar e 48 6 1 2 2 cap test and 0 installation teams 14 (all successful) Materials at the contractor’s workshop 0 5 0 Bulaw ayo 152 19 1 2 0 cap test and 1 installation teams 1 (successful) None 0 1 50 Mash Centr al 976 122 5 10 1 cap test and 0 installation teams 83 (48 successful) Materials for 5 sites 18 33 3,335 Midla nds 1856 232 9 18 0 cap test and 7 installation teams 87 (45 successful) Materials for 50 sites 9 34 6,342 Mash West 1200 150 6 12 3 cap test,0 installation 56(25 successful) Tanks and tank stands for 7 sites 10 14 4,102 Mat South 712 89 3 6 0 18(11succes sful) 45 solar panels,15 tanks 10 10 2,418 Mat North 936 117 4 8 2 cap test and 7 installation teams 38(24 successful) 135 solar panels, 6 tank stands,2 tanks 26 26 3,205 19 Total 10,488 1,31 1 49 98 22 cap test and 36 installatio n teams 805 (535 successful) 108 234 35,2 10 20 Fig 1: Agro-ecological zoning for selected fruit trees for Zimbabwe The Horticulture Recovery and Growth Plan targets 18 million trees to be distributed at 10 trees per household to 1.8 million households. The programme managed to distribute 50 000 trees. 21 Table 2.9: Horticulture Mitigation and Resilience Strategies and Measures Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience Horticulture  Annual Horticultural crops production registered a 13% increase, but there was a decrease in tea and pea production.  25% percent achievement in the distribution of fruit trees, 65% for sweet potato virus free vines and 40% for vegetable combos. $ 1, 250 000  229 of targeted 10 000 Business Units by November established  1 912 ha of 6710 ha of potatoes established  1,294,000 sweet potato virus free elite vines distributed to 72 520 farmers  To date 50 000 trees distributed  To date 1 329 128 of 3.5 million vegetable packs distributed $150, 000,000  To create an opportunity for micro-financing VBUs, YBUs and SBUs.  Target to establish 35 000 VBUs, 4 800 YBUs, 9 600 SBUs.  Establishment of 1620 wards, 60 district and 8 provincial and one national Aggregation and value addition Centres  Distribution of 18 000 000 fruit trees to 1 800 000 farmers at 10 fruit trees per household.  Distribution of 90 million virus free sweet potato vines to 1.8 $ 250, 000, 000 $405 000, 000 22 Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience million rural households  Capacitation of Institutions, workers and farmers  Enhanced Coordination 2.3. LIVESTOCK Table 2.10: National beef cattle herd composition by province in 2024 Province Bulls Cows Heifers Oxen Steers Calves Total Manicaland 49,191 250,564 109,019 84,056 44,564 106,560 643,954 Mash Central 24,794 186,472 82,110 59,857 46,160 74,381 473,774 Mashonaland East 43,162 276,944 132,949 40,825 72,101 113,605 679,586 Mashonaland West 23,899 213,895 100,948 39,982 59,940 99,792 538,456 Matabeleland North 35,677 293,529 132,194 68,360 68,302 128,723 726,786 Matabeleland South 23,749 282,211 124,247 41,095 77,335 141,018 689,654 Midlands 53,410 375,326 183,319 96,659 98,926 163,604 971,244 Masvingo 59,498 377,169 190,967 96,547 104,512 166,375 995,069 Total 313,379 2,256,110 1,055,753 527,382 571,840 994,059 5,718,523  Breeding herd (bulls, cows and heifers) constitute 63% of the national head 23 Table 2.11: National Grazing and Water Adequacy by District 0 – 3 months Total number of cattle at risk 4 – 8 months Total number of cattle 9 months+ Total number of cattle Grant Total Grazing Adequacy Gwanda, Mwenezi, Mberengwa, Insiza, Beitbridge, Matobo, Bulilima, Mangwe, Umzingwane, Umguza, Bubi, Tsholotsho, Nkayi, Lupane, Binga, Gokwe North, Gokwe South, Mbire, Mt Darwin, Mudzi, Rushinga, Buhera, Mutare, Chipinge, Chiredzi, Mwenezi 2 683 997 Chirumanzu, Masvingo, Gweru, Zaka, Chivi,Chikomba, Shurugwi,Seke, Makoni, Nyanga, Kwekwe 1 284 533 Makonde, Shamva, Bindura, Zvimba, Muzarabani, Mazowe, Mutoko, Murehwa 521 024 4 489 554 Water Adequacy Chirumhanzu, parts of Kwekwe, Mberengwa, Gokwe South and North (Midlands), 3 481 119 Parts of Mhondoro- Ngezi, Chirumhanzu, Zaka, Chivi, 667 018 Chipinge, Mazowe, Makonde, Murehwa, Centenary, Mtoko, 473 681 4 621 818 24 Mwenezi, Chiredzi, Zaka, parts of Gutu, Bikita and Masvingo (Masvingo), Chipinge South, Mutare and Buhera (Manicaland), Mudzi, parts of Seke, UMP, parts of Murehwa and Mutoko (Mash East), Mbire, Mt Darwin and Rushinga (Mash Central), Kariba, Sanyati and Mhondoro-Ngezi (Mash West), finally all Matabeleland North and South districts. Chikomba, Norton, Chegutu, Makoni, Mudzi, Rushinga, Mt Darwin, Kariba Zvimba, Kwekwe, Gwanda 25 Table2.12: The summary of water and pasture shortage as indicated in Table xx Grazing Adequacy Water Adequacy Months Number of Cattle Percentage of cattle(%) Number of Cattle Percentage of cattle(%) 0-3 months 2 683 997 47% 3 481 119 61% 4-8 Months 1 284 533 22% 667 018 13% 9 months plus 521 024 9% 473 681 8% Total 4 489 554 78% 4 621 818 82 % The focus of mitigation and resilience measures will be, sequentially, for category 0-3 months, and 4-8 months. Table 2.13: Presidential Poultry Scheme update as at 23 May 2024 Province/District Number of chicks Distributed Total Distributed 2022 2023 2024 Manicaland 32,000 75,458 13,570 199,175 Mashonaland Central 39,003 71,325 31,300 123,898 Mashonaland East 63,976 249,958 41,819 345,234 Mashonaland West 66,532 57,316 31,600 165,667 Masvingo 46,210 77,607 48,137 136,417 Matabeleland North 31,668 62,836 17,540 142,641 26 Matabeleland South 25,550 57,628 20,000 100,718 Midlands 23,964 72,523 23,531 116,487 Harare 28,291 49,260 91,717 101.082 Bulawayo 11,137 34,211 0 45 348 Total 368,331 789,122 319,214 1,476,667 Table 2.14: Presidential Goat Scheme Update as at 23 May 2024 Province Goats Distributed Total Distributed 2022 2023 2024 Manicaland 2,467 400 2,867 Mash Central 194 0 194 Mash East 555 400 955 Mash West 532 0 532 Mat North 174 360 534 Mat South 149 0 149 Midlands 390 1,000 1,390 Masvingo 250 98 25 373 Total 4,639 2,258 25 6,922 27 Table 2.15: Livestock Mitigation and Resilience Strategies and Measures Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience Livestock From CLAFA 2 the El Nino-induced drought caused a loss of 9,941 cattle at the start of the 2023/24 season and 47% of the rural wards will face grazing shortage starting July 2024 and 76% of the wards will face water challenges for livestock use, some 2 000 000 cattle are at risk of water and feed challenges. Only 35%. 35% of the livestock face starvation while the rest of the national herd is affected by poor nutrition. They will loose condition, $ 1,500, 000 ● Private sector to import 400 000 MT requirement for feed production for livestock ● Construction of 16 20 Water Troughs in 1620 rural wards ● Hay supply:1 464 756 bales have been produced to date ● The government hay baling programme has produced 2 184 bales, while private sector hay bales total is 1 464 576. However, private hay bales are for individual farm use and not much is yet available for national use. ● 1 164 350 beef heard in Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South, $136 700 000 ● Livestock Collateralization (insurance) ● Increased Forage and Fodder production ● 1000 Dip Tanks to be rehabilitated of 4 183, to bring all dip tanks to functionality ● Procure 20 new hay baling sets, cumulatively 32 sets, 27 new tractors, cumulatively 32 tractors ● Conduct national AI breed improvement S35 392 000 28 Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience thereby affecting productivity. ● The total Dairy herd stands at 60,398 ● Poultry 23 million ● Pigs 339 644 Midlands and Masvingo provinces require 5,6 million hay bales (15 kg each per day) from July to November. The animals will be given 15kg of hay each together with other sources such as grazing and survival meal. ● Hay requirement is 15kg/day x 208 days x 1 164 350 translating to 242 184 800 hay bales. ● To supplement the hay supplementary feed is required at 2kg/day x 208 days x 1 164 350 animals translating to 484 370 MT of feed ● However, a wide range of strategies will be used and some animals will be relocated to relief programme on 100 000 cows/heifers annually with indigenous breeds ● Enhance veld reclamation and rehabilitation ● Facilitate training in fodder production and preservation ● Accelerate distribution of 18 million indigenous chickens and 1.8 million goats under the Presidential Poultry and Goat Schemes ● Accelerate resuscitation of 29 Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience grazing areas as DVS issues new guidelines on 1 June 2024. ● A total of 5 lorries per Province will be required to move hay bales to needy areas. ● Limited cattle translocation to relief grazing areas based on Veterinary Services monitoring for disease. ● Suspension of 15% VAT on abattoir slaughters to encourage formal selling, and firming of prices ● Enhanced Veld Fire Management through establishment of local/village Committees CSC for feed- lotting and marketing ● Capacitation of Institutions, workers and farmers ● Enhanced Coordination 30 Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience ● Ward-based feedlot establishment in needy areas, around VBUs ● Household feed formulation ● Survival Feeding of 2 299 283 vulnerable cattle for 6 months ● Decentralized Livestock Marketing to ward feedlots ● 8899 MT of maize unfit for human consumption at GMB to be used as feed ● Enhance disease surveillance ● Enhance disease resilience ● Engage with Ministry of Local Government and Public Works and Rural Districts for possible downward review of livestock levy 31 2.4. FISHERIES Table 2.16: Dams Stocked by Province in 2023 Province Number of Dams Number of Fingerlings Mashonaland Central 13 100,000 Mashonaland East 6 38,000 Mashonaland West 8 60,000 Matabeleland North 6 - Matabeleland South 5 4,000 Manicaland - - Midlands 6 50,000 Masvingo 15 43,000 Total 59 465,000 Table 2.17: Fingerlings Production: Government Breeding Sites Update Breeding Site(Fisheries Unit) Percent Progress % Potential Fingerling Production annually Henderson 25% 4,425,000 Makoholi 15% 2,700,000 Matopos 1% 2,700,000 32 Bubi-Lupane 0% 2,700,000 Chipinge (Coffee) Research Institute 0% 2,700,000 Total 41% 15,225,000 *Breeding Site Requirements to produce 60% of annual fingerling requirements Table 2.18: Fingerlings Production 2024 (Private and Government) Hatchery Province Number of Fingerlings Lake Harvest Mashonaland West 9,280,268 Kariba Bream Farm Mashonaland West 210,500 Radco Mashonaland Central 1,712,776 Henderson Mashonaland Central 70,000 Toppick Matebeleland South 84,000 Jayrop Mashonaland East 126,500 Spring Glory Manicaland 65,000 Hatchpro Hatcheries Harare 42,000 Totals 11,591,044 33 Table 2.19: Dams Stocked and Expected Yield Year 2023 2024 2025 Stocked Stocked Target Stocked Target Target Number of Dams 34 24 50 - 50 Number of fingerlings required 295,000 160,000 500,000 - 500,000 Expected Tonnage (MT) 35.4 19.2 60 - 60 Table 2.20: Fisheries Stocking Targets for Business Units Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total VBU 5,000 6,000 8,500 8,500 4,000 2,000 1,000 35,000 SBU 500 600 1,000 1,100 600 500 500 4,800 YBU 300 600 500 800 1,000 1,000 600 4,800 VTC 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 45 Total ponds 5,805 7,206 10,006 10,407 5,607 3,507 2,107 44,645 Number of fingerling s 11,610,00 0 14,412,00 0 20,012,00 0 20,814,00 0 11,214,00 0 7,014,00 0 4,214,00 0 89,290,00 0 34 Calculated assuming all ponds are 20m by 10m. Each pond will require 2 000 fingerlings. The total number of fingerlings for Business Unit stocking is 89,290,000. Commercial cage fishing will be promoted as a business on 134 dams. Table 2.21: Fisheries Business Units Stocked to date PROVINCE VBUs Number of fingerlings YBUs Number of fingerlings SBUs Number of fingerlings Total Number of Fingerlings Expected Tonnage (MT) Manicaland 182 786,000 27 20,000 3 4,000 810,000 194.4 Mashonaland East 235 967,000 0 0 0 0 967,000 232.08 Mashonaland Central 67 207,000 0 0 2 2,000 209,000 50.16 Mashonaland West 114 703,000 0 0 5 15,000 718,000 172.32 Masvingo 110 672,500 3 14,000 4 12,000 698,500 167.64 Midlands 53 288,500 0 0 0 0 288,500 69.24 Matabeleland North 103 398,000 0 0 0 0 398,000 95.52 Matabeleland South 109 335,000 0 0 1 1,000 336,000 80.64 Total 973 4,357,000 30 34,000 15 34,000 4,425,000 1,062 35 Table 2.22: Fisheries Mitigation and Resilience Strategies and Responses Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience Fisheries  109 of 157 established VBUs stocked, 69 %  58 of 10 600 dams stocked $ 1, 250,000  20 000 fish ponds on 10 000 VBUs by November 2024 $ 300 000  70 000 fish ponds in 35 000 VBUs, 96 00 fish ponds on 4800 YBUs, and 19200 fish ponds in 9600 SBUs  1200 dams stocked by 2025  Commercial production on 50 dams  Annual Tillapia production of 60 000 MT  Expand government production to 60% of annual fingerling requirement  Localization of feed production  Capacitation of Institutions, workers and farmers  Enhanced Coordination $ 500 000 $127 000 36 2.5. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT Zimbabwe is endowed with good water resources, with a total of 10600 dams in the country, with a potential to irrigate over 2,000,000ha. The country has about 233,000ha equipped with irrigation infrastructure and currently 219,000ha of the equipped infrastructure is currently functional. The country had targeted 350,000ha between 2021 and 2025 when the Accelerated Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Plan was launched. Furthermore, Zimbabwe has a potential to store 47.3 billion m3 water with a total potential 10% yield of 14.6 Billion m3. Currently only 22.4% (10.6 billion m3) of this is stored in existing dams. Approximately 80% of the developed volume is for agricultural use. The potential irrigable area using potential dams is currently at 1 460,000 ha (at 8 ML/Ha/year). If we then tape into transboundary waters of the Zambezi river around Mlibizi and Kanyemba areas an additional 450 000 ha can be irrigated. This gives us the 2 million potential irrigable area. Table 2. 23: Progress with dam construction as at 15 May 2023 Dam Percentage Completion Kunzvi 48%, Semwa 32% Tuli Manyange 34% Gwayi Shangani 70.2% Bindura 38% Dande dam and Tunnel 20% & 8% respectively (to be redesigned) Mbada 13% 37 Dam Percentage Completion Ziminya 29.5% Vungu 15.3% Defe Dopota 6.1 Table 2.24: Water availability in Major Dam as at 23 May 2024 PROVINCE TOTAL CAPACITY (10^6M^3) PRESENT CAPACITY (10^6M^3) % FULL AS AT 23/05/2024 % CHANGE SINCE 16/05/2024 Bulawayo 6.4 5.0 78.9 -2.4 Harare 12.4 9.0 72.8 -7.2 Manicaland 717.7 537.4 76.2 -0.9 Mashonaland Central 235.7 198.5 84.2 -0.5 Mashonaland East 120.2 86.7 72.1 -4.8 Mashonaland West 1380.0 1201.5 87.1 0.7 Masvingo 4322.6 3431.7 79.2 -0.5 Matabeleland North 85.4 40.5 47.5 -0.9 Matabeleland South 727.5 325.9 44.8 -0.7 Midlands 519.8 315.0 60.6 -1.3 TOTALS 8127.8 6151.2 75.7 -0.5 38 Table 2. 25: Developed Irrigation Area: 1980 to 2024 Year Area (Ha) Annual Average(ha/year) added 1980 150000 3000 2019 169000 2400 2024 217000 9600 There has been a fourfold increase in the annual area developed since 2020, when the Accelerated Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Plan was launched. Table 2.26: Accelerated Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Plan (Targets vs Achievement) Year Cumulative Developed Area (Ha) Year on Year Development (Ha) PSIP Donors Private Sector Total Annual Achieved Annual Target Achieved Annual Target Achieved Annual Target Achieved 2020 171000 1000 550 1000 650 3000 800 2000 2021 175000 12400 1200 1500 800 12000 2000 4000 39 2022 193000 12400 1500 2000 2500 12000 14000 18000 2023 203000 12400 900 2000 2100 12000 7000 10000 2024 217000 12400 846 2000 1255 12000 11899 14000 50600 4996 8500 7305 51000 35699 48000 Future Projections for Irrigation Development Year Cumulative Developed Area (Ha) Government Development Partners Private Sector Total 2024 238026 7710 1316 12000 21026 2025 258177 17000 4151 20000 41151 2026 299328 19000 5200 25000 49200 2027 348528 19000 5200 25000 49200 2028 397728 19000 5200 25000 49200 2029 446928 19000 5200 25000 49200 2030 496128 19000 5200 25000 49200 The area to be developed is 496 000 ha made up as current developed 219 000 ha, and 275 000 ha additional summer area to bring the cumulative available area for summer irrigation from the current 75 000 ha to 350 000. 40 Table 2.27: Irrigation Requirements Categories STRATEGY APPROXIMATE AREA (HA) AREA ACHIEVED (HA) % ACHIEVEMENT TO DATE Blitz rehabilitation of the non- functional schemes and water sources 45,000 Government 4,950 11 Development Partners 7,200 16 Private Sector 16,650 37 28,800 Expansion of the existing irrigation network targeting areas with potential for further development and with under- utilised water bodies 83,647 Government nil Development Partners nil Private Sector nil Development of irrigation systems at on-going dam projects 81,603 Government nil Development Partners nil Private Sector nil 41 Increased utilisation of the groundwater resources and trans-boundary river systems for irrigation 39,500 Government 1,185 3 Development Partners 1,975 5 Private Sector 5,135 13 8,295 Subtotal 249,750 Government 99,900 46 Development Partners 34,965 16 Private Sector 82,417 38 217,282 Existing developed area for cereals 141,000 Government 28,200 20 Development Partners 12,690 9 Private Sector 100,110 71 141,000 Government formed the Irrigation Development Alliance in 2021, to rally support, to create and enabling policy environment, and to mobilise private sector resources for accelerated irrigation development. The Pedstock and Valley Schemes aim to unlock USD 200 million ahead of the Irrigation Investment Conference for resources to irrigate at least 43 000 ha by 2026. Other schemes may unlock over USD 300 million. Some 133 00 ha is targeted by all the schemes. 42 Table 2.28: Irrigation Development Alliance Update Name of Facility Value (USD million) Financier Area (Ha) Progress to-date Required Action Pedstock/Munda Wedu 50 Chamsa 20 000 Revised term sheet from HOMT Espana submitted to MOFED for review. Lead partners (HOMT ESPANA) have proposed to schedule final negotiations meeting on the 27th of May 2024, in Zimbabwe. Preparations underway Valley 172 Valley 23 000 Valley working with Banc ABC Valley USA are working on a grand offer of turnkey supply delivery and installation of 20 000ha worth of equipment. The offer has been sent for final approval by their Company Board. Meanwhile Valley Zimbabwe are finalizing an interim offer to pilot the grand proposal. 43 Name of Facility Value (USD million) Financier Area (Ha) Progress to-date Required Action Zimmatic 76 Zimmatic 20 000 Term sheet submitted to Ministry of Finance for review. MOFED is still reviewing the offer. However, indications are that treasury is already burdened with other commitments to agriculture such that it would be amenable if the Zimmatic proposal was for a loan facility to government. Kirloskar 50 India Exim 10,000 Kirloskar team was in the country early February and signed an MOU with the Ministry. Engagement with ZINWA, ARDA, DOI and AFC to unlock the facility. WAPCOS 100 Grant aid & Commerce loans 20,000 MOU to be tabled before the Cabinet Committee on Legal Affairs To follow up with Attorney General’s office Zimplow 100 20,000 Proposal submitted to Ministry of Finance for review To follow up with MOFED. 44 Name of Facility Value (USD million) Financier Area (Ha) Progress to-date Required Action AIC 50 Saudi Export Bank 20,000 AIC team had an introductory meeting with the Ministry in February 2024. The Ministry provided AIC with a provisional list of projects to be considered under the facility. AIC is expected to submit a detailed term sheet for review. The designation of ARDA as the food, feed, oils and seed security agent for the nation will require substantial investment in its estates to unlock further irrigation potential. 45 Table 2.29: Potential Arable and Irrigable Hectarage – ARDA Managed Estates (Excluding Estates under Partnerships) Number Estate Water Source Province District Gross Area After Land Reform [(Ha) Potential Arable Area (Ha) Current Area Under Irrigatio n (Ha) Capacity Utilisatio n Hectara ge Immedia tely Availabl e For Irrigatio n Develop ment (Ha) 1 ` Osborne Manicalan d Chimanim ani 80 80 0 0% 80 2 DDP Nyarungu Borehole Mashonal and East Chitungwi za 40 11 0 0% 11 3 Mbuya Nehanda (DP) Claw Dam Mashonal and West Kadoma 9,591 3,850 240 8% 3,034 4 Kairezi Kairezi River Manicalan d Nyanga 3,000 300 0 0% 200 5 Magudu Tugwi- Mukosi Masvingo Chiredzi 4,000 3,200 0 0% 3,200 46 6 Mushang we Safari Dam Mashonal and East Maronder a 100 80 30 43% 70 7 Muzaraba ni Musengez i River Mashonal and Central Muzaraba ni 580 560 90 16% 560 8 Rusitu Rusitu River Manicalan d Chipinge 1,700 250 0 0% 150 9 Tendele Borehole Matabelel and North Umguza 78 68 0 0% 55 10 Bbulaayo Kraal Zambezi River Matabelel and North Binga 15,000 5,000 100 2% 5000 11 Umguza Plot Umguza River Matebelel and North Umguza 20 20 20 100% 20 12 Kanyemb a Zambezi River Mashonal and Central Mbire 2,000 1,800 0 0% 1,500 GRAND TOTAL 36,189 15,219 480 13,880 Only 3.5% percent of the area is under irrigation 47 Table 2.30: ARDA Annual Production Trends Year Total Area Established (Ha) Irrigated Production (Ha) Dryland Production (Ha) Total Cereal Output (MT) 2020/21 1,102 1,102 - 3,747 2021/22 23,124 20,513 2,611 96,028 2022/23 27,808 23,613 4,195 167,934 2023/24 50,431 33,755 16,676 Projected 473,776 Table 2.31: ARDA Production by Segment Summer 2023/2024 SEGMENT NUMBER OF FARMERS AREA (Ha) CROP VOLUME (MT) Estates 10 2,312 9,561 Irrigation Schemes 32,900 14,162 42,486 A1/A2 Joint Ventures 13,301 38,412 98,953 GRAND TOTAL 46,211 54,886 151,000 48 Table 2.32: ARDA Expected Contribution in Future to Produce 45% of Annual National Cereal Requirement Segment Number of Farmers Area (Ha) Total Projected Crop Volume (MT) Summer Winter Estates 15 3,500 2,505 30,025 Irrigation Schemes 47,898 26,000 20,000 230,000 Joint Ventures 58,171 130,500 37,495 839,975 GRAND TOTAL 106,084 160,000 60,000 1,100,000 Table 2.33: The financial requirement to produce 800 000MT summer crops and 300 000 MT winter cereals Input Quantity/Ha Hectarage [Ha] Total Input Quantity [MT] Cost per Unit [USD] Value of Inputs Required [USD] Summer Winter Summer Winter Basal Fertilizer [Compound D] [MT] 0.45 0.5 160,000 60,000 102,000 $ 680.00 $ 69,360,000.00 Top Dressing [Ammonium Nitrate] [MT] 0.3 0.35 160,000 60,000 69,000 $ 720.00 $ 49,680,000.00 Diesel [L] 75 85 160,000 60,000 17,100,000 $ 1.65 $ 28,215,000.00 49 Seed [MT] 0.025 0.12 160,000 60,000 11,200 $ 1,850.00 $ 20,720,000.00 Herbicides and Pesticides [$] 130 152 160,000 60,000 29,920,000 $ 1.00 $ 29,920,000.00 Insurance [$] 24.375 52.2 160,000 60,000 7,032,000 $ 1.00 $ 7,032,000.00 Utility Bills (ZINWA &ZESA) [$] 220 398 160,000 60,000 59,080,000 $ 1.00 $ 59,080,000.00 Land Preparation, Planting & Harvesting [$] 180 180 160,000 60,000 39,600,000 $ 1.00 $ 39,600,000.00 Transport - Inputs & Harvested Grain [$] 45 45 160,000 60,000 9,900,000 $ 1.00 $ 9,900,000.00 GRAND TOTAL [$] $ 313,507,000.00 50 Table 2.34: Water Mitigation and Resilience Strategies and Measures Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience Presidential Rural Development Programme 2,890 of target of 35,000 boreholes drilled, 28 of target of 100 rigs procured $100,000  Procure balance of 12 rigs on the old running contract  Procure additional 60 rigs to improve drilling capacity (20 for RIDA)  10,000 boreholes in 10,000 Villages  Establish 10,000 Village Business Units.  4800 of schools with YBUs $ 3,000,000 $15,000,000 $250,000,000 $120,000,000  Complete 35 000 VBUs, 9600 SBUs and 4800 YBUs, 45 VTCBUs by 2028  Capacitation of Institutions, workers and farmers  Enhanced Coordination $388, 000, 000 Dam Construction 12 dams under construction, and at various levels of completion 160 weirs need construction (20 per rural province) $20 000  Complete Kunzi and Gwayi-Shangani Dam wall by December 2024  160 Weir construction $150 Million $16 Million  Complete 10, dams by 2028  Construct 640 weirs by 2028 $1.8 Billion $64 Million Water Sanitation and Hygiene  3 of 48 towns have less than 9-month water supply, 40 have adequate water supply  29 urban local authorities unable to $ 500,000  Increase access to WASH in urban areas to 98%  Increase access to WAHS in rural areas to 80% $44,268,666.67 $62,577,894.00  Full operationalization of the Rural WASH Information Management System (RWIMS) and the Urban WASH Information $5 059 192 51 Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience supply adequate water to residents  82% access to water in urban and 78.4% in rural areas  15% access to hygiene in urban areas, and 4% in rural areas 97.8% access to sanitation in urban areas and 61.1% access in rural areas. Management System for early warning.  Establish Ground Water Monitoring Unit  Legislation and governance reviews to strengthen WASH sector by 2025.  Capacitation of Institutions, workers and farmers  Enhanced Coordination 52 Table 2.35: Irrigation Mitigation and Resilience Strategies and Responses Search and Rescue Mitigation Resilience Irrigation Development  Only 219 000 ha of 496 000 ha developed $100,000  Rehabilitation of 16 000ha of irrigation infrastructure under low hanging quick fix schemes  Establish additional 36 000 ha for summer irrigation by 2025 A budget of USD28 million required to be administered through an on lending facility for the quick fix schemes while an estimated USD200 million is needed to meet the additional 36 000ha with the banks  Develop 350 000 ha irrigable for summer crops by 2028, thus an additional 275 000 ha for the current 75 000 ha available  Capacitation of Institutions, workers and farmers  Enhanced Coordination An estimated USD1.4billion is required for the development of the 275 000ha 2.6. MECHANISATION Table 2. 36: Tractor and Combine Numbers by Year Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 Tractors 8 920 10 900 13 480 14 285 Combine Harvesters 210 249 303 305 53 The number of tractors has increased by 60% and combine harvesters by 45% since the launch of the AFSTS in 2020. Of these government schemes have contributed 41% percent of the additional tractors and 95% percent of combine harvesters. Table 2.37: Mechanisation Development Alliance Progress NATIONAL FARM MECHANISATION FACILITIES Name of Facility Value (USD) Financier Number and Type of Equipment Progress to-date Action 1. John Deere 51 million GoZ 1300 tractors,80 combine harvesters, 600 planters, 200 boom sprayers, 200 disc harrows, 100 trailers $2million Dollars ZWL Released before ZiG. NOT YET FUNDED Await Treasury to release the USD component. 2. Belarus 2 52 million Belarus 1337 tractors, 16 combine harvesters, 5 disc harrows 73 tractors are yet to be distributed. Bison Agro- Machinery delivered the outstanding equipment (26 tractors & 2 disc harrows). Massive marketing and follow-up M&E 54 3. Belarus 3 169.9 million Belarus 3161 tractors, 80 combine harvesters Contracts were signed for both tractors, combine harvesters and the GMB Silo Expansion Project. Payment to Aftrade DMCC. 4. Bain New Holland 20 million GoZ 700 tractors 66 Tractors delivered to Harare under 2nd tranche bringing the total to date at 127. Treasury released US$3 million for the year 2024. 28 tractors have been distributed so far. Massive marketing and follow-up M&E 55 5. Local Manufacture 6 million GoZ All Facilities related implements & Attachments No Significant Movement RE-TENDERING MOST FACILITIES Re-Tender Most Facilities and Contracts 6. China Smallholder Mechanisation 104.9 million China EXIM Bank Tractors, implements, solar agro-processing plants, borehole kits etc. A proposal was submitted to the Chinese Embassy and they have expressed willingness to avail USD 104 million. Gvt to Gvt negotiations to be completed in June during H.E The President’s Visit to China. RECOMMENADTION Cabinet is recommended to consider and approve the El Nino-induced drought mitigation strategies and measures for the agricultural sector. Hon. Dr. A.J. Masuka MINISTER OF LANDS, AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES, WATER AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT