Eight National Development Plan (8NDP)

1.1 THE DEVELOPMENT APPROACH 3

1.2 OUTLINE OF THE PLAN 4 2. PAST PERFORMANCE 5

2.1 OVERVIEW 5

2.2 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 5

2.2.1 Economic Growth 5

2.2.2. Fiscal Performance 6

2.2.3. Debt Position 7

2.2.4. Monetary and Financial Sector Performance 8

2.2.5 External Sector Performance 9

2.2.3 Gross international reserves (GIRs) steadily increased between 2006 and 2014 9

2.2.6. Employment and Job Creation 11

2.3. HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT 12

2.3.1 Population Dynamics 12

2.3.2 Poverty and Inequality 14

2.3.3 Education and Skills Development 15

2.3.4 Health and Nutrition 17

2.3.5 Water and Sanitation 18

2.3.6 Governance Environment 19

2.4 KEY LESSONS LEARNT 19 PART III: MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK 21 3. MACROECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES 22

3.1 MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES 22

3.2 MACROECONOMIC POLICIES 23

3.2.1 Achieving Higher and Inclusive Growth 23

3.2.2 Fiscal Policy and Reforms 23

3.2.3 Debt Management Strategy 23

3.2.4 Dismantling of Domestic Arrears 23

3.2.5 Monetary and Financial Sector Policies 24

3.2.6 External Sector Policies 24

3.3 KEY REFORMS TO SUPPORT THE MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES 24 Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods vii REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA PART III: 8NDP TOWARDS THE NATIONAL VISION 27

4.0 TOWARDS THE VISION 2030 28

4.1. OVERVIEW OF THE VISION 2030 28

4.2 MOVING TOWARDS THE VISION 2030: WHAT IT WILL TAKE 28 PART IV: THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREAS OF THE 8NDP 31 5. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 1: ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND JOB CREATION 32

5.1 OVERVIEW 32

5.2 CURRENT SITUATION 32

5.3 CONSTRAINTS 33 5.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: AN INDUSTRIALISED AND DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY 34 5.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: ENHANCED CITIZENRY PARTICIPATION IN THE ECONOMY 41

5.6. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: A COMPETITIVE PRIVATE SECTOR 43 6.0 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 2: HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT 46

6.1. OVERVIEW 46

6.2. CURRENT SITUATION 46

6.3 CONSTRAINTS 48

6.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED EDUCATION AND SKILLS DEVELOPMENT 49 6.5 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED HEALTH, FOOD AND NUTRITION 52 6.6. 6DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: IMPROVED WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION 55

6.7 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 4: REDUCED POVERTY, VULNERABILITY AND INEQUALITY 56 7. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 3: ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 60

7.1 OVERVIEW 60

7.2 CURRENT SITUATION 60

7.3 CONSTRAINTS 61 7.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: ENHANCED MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 62

7.5 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 64 8. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 4: GOOD GOVERNANCE ENVIRONMENT 66

8.1. OVERVIEW 66

8.2 CURRENT SITUATION 66

8.3 CONSTRAINTS 67

8.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED POLICY AND GOVERNANCE ENVIRONMENT 68 viii EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

8.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED RULE OF LAW, HUMAN RIGHTS AND CONSTITUTIONALISM 72 PART V: MANAGEMENT OF THE PLAN 74 9. IMPLEMENTATION AND COORDINATION FRAMEWORK 75

9.1 INTRODUCTION 75

9.2 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS 76

9.2.1 National Assembly 76

9.2.2 Cabinet 76

9.2.3 Cabinet Office 76

9.2.4 Office of the Auditor-General 76 9.2.5 Ministry Responsible for Finance and National Planning 76

9.2.6 Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development 77

9.2.7 House of Chiefs 77

9.2.8 Ministries, Provinces and other Spending Agencies 77

9.2.9 State-Owned Enterprises 77

9.2.10 Private Sector 77

9.2.11 Civil Society Organisations 77

9.2.12 Cooperating and Development Partners 78

9.3 COORDINATION AND ADVISORY STRUCTURES 78

9.3.1 National Level Coordination and Implementation 78

9.3.2 Sectoral Level Coordination and Implementation 78

9.3.3 Provincial Level Coordination and Implementation 78

9.3.4 District Level Coordination and Implementation 78

9.3.5 Ward Development Committees 79 10. MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK 80

10.1 OVERVIEW 80

10.2 MONITORING 81

10.2.1 Management Monitoring System 81

10.2.2 Spot Monitoring 81

10.2.3 Annual Progress Report 81

10.3 EVALUATION 82

10.3.1 Mid-Term Review 82

10.3.2 Final Evaluation 82

10.4 DATA CATALOGUE 82 PART VI: FINANCING OF THE PLAN 83 11. FINANCING THE 8NDP 84

11.1 OVERVIEW 84

11.2 TRADITIONAL SOURCES OF FINANCE 84

11.2.1 Domestic Revenues (Tax and Non-Tax Revenues) 84

11.2.2 External Grants 84 Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods ix REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

11.2.3 Domestic and External Financing 84

11.2.4 Resource Envelope 84

11.2.5. Expenditure 85

11.3. ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF FINANCE 86

11.4 INTEGRATED NATIONAL FINANCING FRAMEWORK 87

12.0 PRECONDITIONS AND RISK MANAGEMENT 88

12.1. OVERVIEW 88

12.1.1. Preconditions 88

12.2.2 Stabilisation of the Macroeconomic Fundamentals 88

12.2.3 Effective Management of Pandemics 88

12.2.4 Effective Accountability Frameworks 88

12.2.5 Climate change management 88

12.3 RISK MANAGEMENT 89 ANNEX 1: SAMPLE – DETAILED IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 90 x EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Unemployment Rates (%) 2005-2020 11 Table 2: Formal and Informal Employment (%) 2005-2021 12 Table 3: Access to Water and Sanitation (%), 2007-2018 18 Table 4: Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2022-2026 22 Table 5: Estimate of Resources, 2022-2026 (K’000) 85 Table 6: Central Government Non-Discretionary Expenditure, 2022-2026 85 Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods xi REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The Change Process Envisioned in the Plan 2 Figure 2: Real GDP Growth (%) vs Targeted Growth (2006-2021) 6 Figure 3: Fiscal Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (2006-2021) 7 Figure 4: Inflation, Exchange Rate and Lending Rates (2006-2021) 8 Figure 5: Non-Traditional Exports and Traditional Exports (US$’ million) 9 Figure 6: Gross International Reserves (US$’ million) 10 Figure 7: Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (2006-2021) 11 Figure 8: Selected Demographic Indicators 2007 - 2018 13 Figure 9: Population by Age and Sex, Zambia, 2021 13 Figure 10: Poverty Trends (%), 2006-2015 14 Figure 11: Education Indicators and Progression Rates, 2006-2020 16 Figure 12: Situating the 8NDP in the Vision 2030 30 Figure 13: Overall Institutional Arrangements for Coordination 79 Figure 14: Diagrammatic Representation of the 8NDP Results Framework 80 Figure 15: Alternative Sources of finance 86 xii EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 7NDP Seventh National Development Plan 8NDP Eighth National Development Plan BoZ Bank of Zambia CAG Cluster Advisory Group CO2 Carbon Dioxide COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 CSO Civil Society Organisation DDCC District Development Coordinating Committee ECE Early Childhood Education FDI Foreign Direct Investment FISP Farmer Input Support Programme FNDP Fifth National Development Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product Gg Gigagram GHG Green House Gas GIRs Gross International Reserves GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia ICT Information and Communication Technology IMR Infant Mortality Rate INFF Integrated National Financing Framework INRIS Integrated National Registration Information System KPI Key Performance Indicator M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio MMS Management Monitoring System MoFNP Ministry of Finance and National Planning MPSAs Ministries, Provinces and Spending Agencies MSMEs Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises MTR Mid-Term Review NCD Non Communicable Disease NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions NDCC National Development Coordinating Committee NDP National Development Plan OAG Office of the Auditor-General PDCC Provincial Development Coordinating Committee PPP Public-Private Partnership Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods xiii REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA PWD Person with Disabilities R-SNDP Revised Sixth National Development Plan SADC Southern African Development Community SCT Social Cash Transfer SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SDR Special Drawing Rights SNDP Sixth National Development Plan SOE State-Owned Enterprise STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics TB Tuberculosis TEVET Technical Education, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Training TFR Total Fertility Rate U5MR Under-Five Mortality Rate US$ United States Dollar VAT Value Added Tax WDC Ward Development Committee ZamStats Zambia Statistics Agency ZDHS Zambia Demographic and Health Survey ZMW Zambian Kwacha xiv EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 PART I: DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 1 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 1. INTRODUCTION The Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP) sets out Zambia’s strategic direction in terms of the development priorities and implementation strategies for the period 2022 to 2026. This Plan is a successor to the Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) that was implemented over the period 2017 to 2021. this is the fourth in the series of national development plans (NDPs) towards the national Vision 2030 in which Zambians aspire to live in a prosperous middle-income country. As the penultimate plan, the 8NDP will play a pivotal role as a building block towards the attainment of the national vision. The Plan is a critical vehicle to support the attainment of Zambia’s international and regional commitments under various frameworks, including the last decade of action towards the realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and delivery on the Africa We Want, espoused in the African Union Agenda 2063. Others are the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) protocols. These frameworks have helped in the formulation of the 8NDP. The 8NDP takes cognisance of the country’s developmental context including the challenges and opportunities towards actualising the Vision 2030. Notably, the Plan has been formulated against the backdrop of a challenging economic situation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The current state of development indicates persisting socio-economic challenges which include low diversification of the economy, high youth unemployment, high incidences of poverty and inequality, slow pace of decentralisation, as well as low education outcomes, coupled with inadequate access to other social services. To overcome these challenges and attain the Vision 2030, the 8NDP introduces strategic interventions anchored on Economic Transformation and Job Creation; Human and Social Development; Environmental Sustainability; and Good Governance Environment. The strategic development areas of the 8NDP were arrived at through a review of past performance and consultations with stakeholders in regard to the persistent development issues across different sectors of the economy, including their causes and key actions required to address them. By implementing the identified actions under the four strategic development areas, it is expected that the developmental bottlenecks will be addressed to enable the country attain its medium and long-term objectives. Under each strategic development area are identified development outcomes. These development outcomes are short to medium term results to be attained through the implementation of various strategies and programmes Figure 1: The Change Process Envisioned in the Plan under each strategic development area. The change process envisioned in the Plan is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: The Change Process Envisioned in the Plan Current State Transition/Change Desired State Strategic Interventions Long Term Persisting Development Issues a) Economic Transformation & “A Prosperous Middle-Income Job Creation Nation by 2030” a) Low Diversification b) Human & Social Medium-Term b) Youth Unemployment Development “Socio-Economic c) High Poverty and Inequalities c) Environmental Sustainability Transformation for Improved d) Slow Pace of Decentralisation d) Good Governance Livelihoods” Environment 2 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Economic Transformation and Job Creation will be the key strategic development area of the Plan and aims at facilitating trade and increased investment by the private sector for higher production, value addition and diversification of goods and services. The key drivers for Economic Transformation and Job Creation will be the agriculture, mining, tourism, and manufacturing sectors, supported by strategic interventions in the energy, transport, and water development sectors. In addition, investments will be facilitated in information and communication technology (ICT) and science and technology to support digital transformation and innovation as key enablers under this strategic development area. Investment in skills development will also be key to the economic transformation and job creation agenda. All these interventions will contribute to the creation of decent jobs, particularly for the youth, whose unemployment levels are disproportionately higher. The other strategic development areas will ultimately support the country’s economic transformation agenda. To this end, investments will be made towards the creation of a skilled human capital reserve, coupled with interventions towards the eradication of poverty and inequality, as well as reduction of socio-economic disparities among the various regions in the country. The strategic development area on Environmental Sustainability will involve the mainstreaming of green interventions, including climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. Notable will be the development of climate resilient infrastructure across all sectors for sustainable development. The Government will also implement interventions that will provide a conducive and enabling governance environment for Economic Transformation and Job Creation. Building on the successes and lessons learnt from the implementation of the previous National Development Plans (NDP), and informed by the developmental challenges facing the country, the theme for the 8NDP is “Socio-Economic Transformation for Improved Livelihoods.” The overall aim is to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy to sustainably lift the living standards of the people. The theme emphasises the need to build and get back on track towards the realisation of the Vision 2030 through economic recovery, stabilisation and steady growth, coupled with interventions in the social sectors to realise the socio-economic transformation that will ultimately uplift the livelihoods of the Zambian people. A key intervention to accelerate the attainment of the development objectives in the strategic development areas, will be the full implementation of decentralisation. This will result in the transfer of functions, fiscal and other resources as well as ownership and responsibility for decision-making from the central government to the local government level.

1.1 THE DEVELOPMENT APPROACH The 8NDP was formulated in line with the provisions of the National Planning and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020 and the National Planning and Budgeting Policy of 2014. The legal and policy framework provides for a coordinated and integrated national development planning and budgeting process that is participatory, responsive and results-oriented. Further, the Plan builds on the multi-sectoral integrated development planning approach introduced in the 7NDP. This approach goes beyond articulating sectoral and provincial interventions by ensuring that there is horizontal and vertical integration, as well as convergence in the execution of interventions across sectors. Further, this approach creates and enhances existing synergies among the different stakeholders and sectors, and increases the general effectiveness of programme budgeting, implementation and reporting. This approach also provides a framework for the domestication of international commitments. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 3 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA The formulation of the Plan used both the top-down and bottom-up approaches. On the one hand, the top-down approach entailed analysing the cause-effect of the country’s developmental challenges and opportunities through research and extensive consultations. It also involved the setting, by policymakers, of the strategic direction for the attainment of the country’s development aspirations as well as the implementation of regional and international commitments. On the other hand, the bottom-up approach involved the provision of input by the public and private sectors, civil society organisations, including the youth, women, the aged, persons with disabilities and ordinary citizens into the strategic direction provided by policymakers. The academia and research institutions as well as cooperating and development partners, also participated in the formulation of the 8NDP. The stakeholders made written submissions and were also engaged through in-person and virtual meetings, as well as roundtable discussions. This was done to achieve ownership of the Plan.

1.2 OUTLINE OF THE PLAN The Plan is structured in five parts as follows: Part I provides the development context by highlighting the past performance; Part II presents the macroeconomic framework and policy objectives on which the Plan is premised. Part III highlights what it will take to move towards the Vision 2030 and encompasses the strategic objectives of the 8NDP. Part IV presents the strategic development areas of the Plan. The implementation and coordination arrangements, including the monitoring and evaluation framework of the Plan, are discussed in Part V. Part VI presents the financing framework as well as the preconditions and risk management. 4 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 2. PAST PERFORMANCE

2.1 OVERVIEW The scope of the past performance analysis covers the period 2006 to 2021, which incorporates the periods covered by the Fifth to the Seventh NDPs that were implemented towards the realisation of the Vision 2030. The reference period provides an opportunity to reflect on the progress made thus far, lessons learnt from the implementation of previous NDPs, and the emergent local, regional and global environment in which the country’s development trajectory is contextualised. The review of past performance highlights the achievements scored, and the challenges faced in the implementation of previous NDPs. Further, it provides the baseline upon which the objectives and strategies of the 8NDP are hinged.

2.2 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

2.2.1 Economic Growth In the Vision 2030, the Government’s objective is to attain and sustain an annual real economic growth rate of between 6 and 10 percent. During the period 2006 to 2010, annual real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate was favourable, averaging 8.7 percent, with the highest annual growth rate registered at 10.3 percent in 2010. Growth was mainly driven by the construction, transport, and mining sectors, spurred by increased investment in the mining sector (see Figure 2). Between 2011 and 2016, however, the economic growth rate slowed down, and averaged 4.9 percent. The growth was driven by ICT, wholesale and retail trade, as well as the construction sector. The ICT sector experienced significant structural growth due to the progressive migration from 2G to 4G technologies, and the resultant increased adoption rates, increased data usage, and wider signal penetration rates, especially in rural areas. Growth in wholesale and retail trade was mainly driven by increase in consumption, import and export of manufactured food products, as well as investment in retail outlets. The performance of the construction sector was mainly driven by increased public sector investment in infrastructure. During the period 2017-2021, growth declined further with the real growth rate averaging 1.4 percent largely due to unfavourable weather conditions which impacted the agriculture and energy sectors in the earlier years of the period. Another notable development was in 2020 when economic growth contracted by 2.8 percent, registering the first recession since 1998. This was mainly due to the effect of disruptions in supply chains and containment measures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic on sectors such as tourism, construction, wholesale and retail trade as well as manufacturing. The situation was compounded by the country’s worsening fiscal position resulting from increased borrowing on the domestic market which crowded out the private sector. In 2021, real GDP growth recovered to 3.6 percent, with the agriculture, manufacturing, energy, wholesale and retail trade as well as the ICT sectors driving growth. Mining output declined despite a pick-up in global economic activity and commodity prices. The average real GDP growth of 5.2 percent attained over the period 2006 to 2021, falls below the Vision 2030 target of between 6 to 10 percent. Growth will, therefore, have to be significantly higher over the next two Plan periods to attain the aspirations of the Vision 2030. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 5 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Figure 2: Real GDP Growth (%) vs Targeted Growth (2006-2021) GDP Constant Prices Vision 2030 Target Source: Ministry of Finance and National Planning

2.2.2. Fiscal Performance Over the period 2006 to 2021, fiscal performance was characterised by a deterioration in the overall deficit from the FNDP to the 7NDP period (see Figure 3). During the FNDP period (2006-2010), the overall fiscal deficits were below target between 2006 and 2008, while in 2009 and 2010 the deficits were above target. The fiscal deficit during the FNDP period averaged 2.2 percent. In the earlier years of the Plan, this was attained due to relatively favourable revenue performance and expenditure policy which focused on poverty reduction. In the latter years, fiscal operations were affected by the global financial crisis. Total domestic revenue collections during the FNDP period averaged 17.5 percent, broadly in line with the target of 17.7 percent of GDP. Expenditure averaged 23.1 percent of GDP, against an average target of 23.8 percent of GDP. During the Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP) period (2011-2016), fiscal policy was largely expansionary, with the Government increasing spending on infrastructure development, mainly roads and social infrastructure. In addition, public sector wages increased substantially, especially in 2013. Expenditure pressures also emanated from fuel subsidies, emergency power imports and increased debt service, following a pick-up in debt. Consequently, the fiscal deficit increased from 3.6 percent of GDP in 2011, reaching a high of 9.4 percent in 2015, before declining to 5.8 percent in 2016. Domestic revenue collections averaged 17.4 percent of GDP while expenditures averaged 25 percent of GDP. During the 7NDP period (2017-2021), the overall fiscal deficit remained elevated, averaging 9.6 percent of GDP. The deficit was recorded at 7.8 percent of GDP in 2017 and rose to a peak of 14.4 percent in 2020. Estimates indicate a deficit of 9.0 percent of GDP in 2021. The high deficit was largely on account of expenditure pressures from higher than programmed expenditure on the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) and capital project financing. Higher than programmed interest payments on foreign debt also contributed to the high fiscal deficit. 6 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Figure 3: Fiscal Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (2006-2021) Source: Ministry of Finance and National Planning

2.2.3. Debt Position In tandem with the increase in the fiscal deficit, the debt position of the country increased substantially over the review period. As a proportion of GDP, the public debt stock (domestic and external) significantly increased from 22 percent in 2006 to 119 percent in 2021. The stock of domestic debt (government securities and bonds) increased to K193.00 billion by the end of 2021 from K6.24 billion in 2006. The rapid increase in the debt stock over the period reflected increasing recourse to domestic borrowing as external financing sources reduced. In addition, there was a sharp rise in domestic arrears, excluding fuel and electricity, which more than doubled to K45.5 billion at the end of September 2021 from K20.92 billion at the close of 2017. The pending bills were owed to road contractors, suppliers of goods and services, value-added tax (VAT) refunds and personnel-related emoluments for public service workers. On the external side, the debt stock increased from US$961 million in 2006 to US$1.1 billion at the end of 2010. The stock of external debt increased substantially from 2012, following the issuance of Eurobonds in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Consequently, the external debt stock reached US$6.94 billion at the close of 2016. The stock increased further to US$13.04 billion at the end of 2021. In addition, the Government had guaranteed external borrowing amounting to US$1.53 billion, mostly for power projects in the energy sector. These developments in external debt constrained the country’s ability to meet its external sector obligations, and in October 2020, a decision was made to withhold debt service payments, except to multilateral institutions, pending restructuring of the country’s external debt. The restructuring exercise will be a key precursor to the successful implementation of the Plan. To maintain debt within sustainable levels, the Government will continue to engage its creditors to ensure effective dialogue on outstanding debt and will undertake periodic Debt Sustainability Analyses. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 7 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

2.2.4. Monetary and Financial Sector Performance During the period 2006 to 2021, inflation averaged 11.0 percent (see Figure 4). However, this outturn was higher than the single-digit inflation envisaged in the Vision 2030. During the 7NDP period, inflationary pressures increased, and inflation averaged 12.0 percent, up from 9.2 percent during the SNDP period. The rise in inflation was on account of increased food prices arising from the adverse impact of erratic rainfall on agricultural output and the pass-through effect from the depreciation of the Kwacha. High food prices that characterised the review period were a reflection of structural bottlenecks in the agriculture sector, particularly the high dependence on rainfall, which tends to adversely impact crop production during periods of drought. The Kwacha depreciated against the United States (US) dollar over the period 2006 to 2021. Between 2006 and 2010, the exchange rate averaged K4.24 per US dollar and depreciated to an average of K6.75 over the period 2011-2016. During the 7NDP period, the Kwacha further depreciated to an average of K14.00 per US dollar. The economy’s dependence on limited sources of foreign exchange earnings, imports for both production and consumption goods, as well as a reduction in foreign exchange earnings on account of lower copper prices, amidst elevated external debt service, largely explained the sustained depreciation of the Kwacha. Going forward, therefore, policies will be put in place to diversify foreign exchange sources and increase earnings. As in previous NDPs, lending rates remained high during the 7NDP period. High yield rates on Government securities due to increased domestic borrowing, kept lending rates elevated at an average of 26.0 percent. The resultant high lending rates crowded out the private sector from the credit market, thereby constraining its productive capacity, job creation capabilities and development in general. The relatively high inflation during the review period also contributed to elevated lending rates. This outturn undermined the attainment of the Vision 2030 aspiration of improved access to affordable credit to support private sector growth. In this regard, reducing Government domestic borrowing will be one of the critical policy measures to free up resources for private sector credit and contribute to a reduction in lending rates. In addition, creating a stable macroeconomic environment reflected in low inflation will help in reducing lending rates to affordable levels. Figure 4: Inflation, Exchange Rate and Lending Rates (2006-2021) Source: Bank of Zambia, Zambia Statistics Agency 8 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

2.2.5 External Sector Performance During the period 2006 to 2020, the performance of the external sector was generally favourable as an average current account surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP per annum was recorded. During the 7NDP period, the current account surplus rose to an average of 3.6 percent of GDP. The rise in net exports on the back of the increase in copper earnings largely underpinned the current account surplus. Merchandise exports continued to be dominated by traditional exports, particularly copper, over the period 2006 to 2020 (see Figure 5). Traditional exports accounted for an average of 75 percent of total exports with the balance coming from non-traditional exports such as sugar, cement and agricultural products. This reflects the country’s narrow export base and the need to diversify the sources of export earnings. Figure 5: Non-Traditional Exports and Traditional Exports (US$’ million) Source: Zambia Statistics Agency

2.2.3 Gross International Reserves (GIRs) Gross international reserves (GIRs) steadily increased between 2006 and 2014 (see Figure 6)). This was in part due to Zambia’s attainment of the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative Completion Point in 2006 which resulted in significant debt relief that eased pressure on international reserves. Additionally, the issuance of three Eurobonds amounting to US$3.0 billion increased GIRs to an all-time high of US$3.1 billion in 2014. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 9 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Figure 6: Gross International Reserves (US$’ million) Source: Zambia Statistics Agency and Bank of Zambia International reserves declined steadily to US$1.2 billion (equivalent to 2.4 months of import cover) in 2020 from US$2.1 billion (equivalent to 2.9 months of import cover) in 2017. The decline was mainly due to increased external debt service. In 2021, however, international reserves rose to US$2.8 billion (equivalent of 4.4 months of import cover). This followed the receipt of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) 937.6 million (equivalent of US$1.3 billion) from the International Monetary Fund IMF). At 4.4 months of import cover, international reserves, however, remain far below the Vision 2030 target of at least 12 months of import cover. In this regard, there is need to step up efforts to enhance the accumulation of international reserves. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows averaged US$1.1 billion per annum between 2006 and 2021 (see Figure 7). Mining continued to be the largest destination for FDI inflows. FDI declined steadily after 2013 largely attributed to changes in tax policy for the mining sector, volatile international commodity prices, particularly for copper, and the unfavourable macroeconomic environment. The concentration of FDI inflows in the mining sector calls for concerted efforts to attract investments in other key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture and tourism, if the economy is to be transformed so as to create jobs and enhance livelihoods. 10 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Figure 7: Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (2006-2021) US$ Percent Source: Bank of Zambia

2.2.6. Employment and Job Creation The country’s overall unemployment rate reduced during the first seven years of the review period from 16.0 percent in 2005 to 7.8 percent in 2012. However, the trend was reversed thereafter with the unemployment rate rising to 12.5 percent in 2021. The unemployment rate among the youth was higher than the national unemployment rate and showed an increasing trend over the review period. In 2021, the youth unemployment rate was estimated at 17.4 percent compared to 14 percent in 20051. The unemployment rate was also higher in urban areas than in rural areas (see Table 1). Further, disparities in gender were observed, with unemployment among females being higher. Table 1: Unemployment Rates (%) 2005-2020 Overall Youth Unemployment Rate Year Unemployment Rate Both Sexes Male Female Rural Urban 2005 16.0 14.0 4.0 22.0 7.0 23.0 2008 7.9 14.0 14.9 13.1 5.5 36.0 2012 7.8 10 8.5 11.3 4.4 17.2 2017 12.6 17.4 16.2 19.1 15.7 18.5 2018 11.4 16 14.6 18.2 13.6 17.5 2019 12.8 17.9 17.4 18.6 17.6 18.1 2020 13.8 19.9 17.6. 22.9 18. 20.8 2021 12.5 17.4 14.9 21.2 17.8 17.1 Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Labour Force Survey Reports *2021 Figures are preliminary 1 The methodology for computation of employment statistics since 2017 was based on the 2013 definition of the concept of employment which defines it as any work performed/to be performed for at least one hour during a specified short reference period, to produce goods/services for others for pay/profit. The old standard for defining the concept of employment (1982 International Conference of Labour Statisticians) defines it as any work performed/to be performed for at least one hour during a specified short reference period, to produce goods/services for own use or for others irrespective of whether it is for pay/profit. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 11 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA In addition, in 2005 employment was largely informal with rural areas having a higher rate of informal employment at 98.0 percent compared to urban areas at 65.0 percent. This pattern persisted with informal employment in rural areas recorded at 86.1 percent compared to 66.6 percent in urban areas in 2021 (see Table 2). Table 2: Formal and Informal Employment (%) 2005-2021 Formal Employment Informal Employment Year Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban 2005 12.0 2.0 35.0 88.0 98.0 65.0 2008 11.0 4.0 29.0 89.0 96.0 71.0 2012 15.4 5.5 31.3 84.6 94.5 68.7 2014 16.1 7.8 27.6 83.9 92.2 72.4 2017 36.9 26.5 43.9 63.1 73.5 56.1 2018 31.6 18.5 39.7 68.4 81.5 60.3 2019 31.4 19.7 38.1 68.6 80.3 61.9 2020 26.2 17.0 30.9 73.8 83.0 69.1 2021* 26.8 13.9 33.4 73.2 86.1 66.6 Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Labour Force Survey Reports

2.3. HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Between 2005 and 2021, Zambia recorded improvements in human development measured by life expectancy, access to learning and knowledge, and the standard of living. The country’s Human Development Index improved to 0.584 in 2019 from 0.471 in 2005. This largely reflected the increase in life expectancy at birth to 63.9 years from 48.5 years. The average number of completed years of education of the Zambian population rose to 7.2 from 6.3 while the number of years a child of school entrance age was expected to spend at school increased to 11.5 from 10.9. In addition, Gross National Income per capita increased to US$1,190 in 2020 from US$720 in 2006.

2.3.1 Population Dynamics Population growth between 2006 and 2020 averaged 2.8 percent per annum. In 2010, the population was 13.1 million and was estimated at 17.9 million in 2020. Further, the population was higher in rural than in urban areas. The rural population was 7.9 million in 2010 and was estimated at 10.1 million in 2020. Over the same period, the urban population was 5.2 million in 2010 and was estimated at 7.8 million in 2020. This high rate of population growth is attributed to the interplay between high fertility and reducing mortality. While the country experienced a slight reduction in the total fertility rate (TFR) from an average of 6.2 births per woman in 2007 to 4.7 births in 2018, mortality rates reduced during the same period (see Figure 8). Pregnancy-related mortality (PRMR) reduced from 591 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2007 to 278 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2018, a reduction from 398 per 1,000 live births in 2014. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was 252 deaths per 100,000 live births in 20182. The infant mortality rate (IMR) reduced to 42 deaths in 2018 from 70 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2007, while the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) reduced to 61 deaths in 2018 from 119 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2007. 2 Since the 2013-14 ZDHS, the current definition for maternal mortality was adopted, which excludes maternal deaths from accidents and injuries in the calculation. The calculation of maternal mortality in previous surveys, which includes these deaths, is now called pregnancy-related mortality. Under the new definition maternal maternity for 2018 stood at 252 12 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Figure 8: Selected Demographic Indicators 2007 - 2018 IMR, U5MR PRMR Source: Zambia Statistics Agency The relatively high population growth rate for Zambia has culminated into a young population with about 46 percent of the population aged below 15 years, and approximately 80 percent of the population aged below 35 years. This implies that the child dependency ratio remains high at an average of 88 persons aged 0-15 years per 100 persons aged 15-64 years. (see Figure 9). Figure 9: Population by Age and Sex, Zambia, 2021 Source: Zambia Statistics Agency Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 13 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA The population age structure is expected to remain relatively unchanged up to 2035, unless the implementation of interventions aimed at attaining the demographic dividend are put in place (see Figure 9). To attain the demographic dividend, there is a need to prioritise strategic investments in human capital (health and education), implement sound economic and governance policies, as well as sustain all necessary commitments for opening the demographic window of opportunity. This entails the prioritisation of investments aimed at creating opportunities and a supportive environment for innovation and entrepreneurship for the growing labour force, particularly the young people, persons with disabilities (PWDs), and women.

2.3.2 Poverty and Inequality Zambia still ranks among the countries with high incidences of poverty and inequality in Africa, as well as globally. This is despite several interventions made in education and skills development, health, water and sanitation, as well as job creation and empowerment of citizens. However, some reduction in poverty levels were recorded during the previous NDP periods. Poverty levels in the period 2006-2015 reduced by 8.4 percentage points to 54.4 percent in 2015 from 62.8 percent in 2006. This notwithstanding, extreme poverty or the proportion of individuals whose consumption was less than the cost of the food basket only marginally improved to 41 percent of the total population in 2015 from 43 percent in 2006. Analysis by rural-urban residence indicates that poverty in rural areas remained higher at 76.6 percent compared to 23.4 percent in urban areas as of 2015. Extreme poverty was also higher in the rural areas at 60.8 percent. These persistently high poverty levels in rural areas were mostly attributed to inadequate nutrition, households’ inability to afford agricultural inputs, low wages or salaries and lack of capital to start or expand own business. Figure 10 below shows poverty trends for the period between 2006 and 2015. Figure 10: Poverty Trends (%), 2006-2015 Source: Zambia Statistics Agency The Multidimensional Poverty Index, which considers several elements of deprivation suffered by individuals in the areas of health, education and standard of living, improved to 44 percent in 2018 from 50 percent in 2014. 14 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 High levels of poverty were more prevalent among female-headed households compared to male headed households in both rural and urban areas. According to the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey, poverty for female-headed households at 56.7 percent, was higher than that for households headed by their male counterparts, at 53.8 percent. Among the factors contributing to gender disparities included inequitable access to education and productive resources such as land, household labour, and empowerment programmes, among others. Additionally, female headed households were more likely to experience cultural discrimination in access to education and other public services. During the period under review, inequality in income, as measured by the Gini coefficient, worsened due to the fact that growth was driven by industries that were not labour intensive. This relegated most of the labour to low paying informal jobs. Further, productivity in the agriculture sector, which was the mainstay of the rural population, did not improve, resulting in stagnation of incomes. At the national level, the Gini coefficient worsened to 0.69 in 2015 from 0.60 in 2006. Between 2006 and 2015, rural income inequality remained constant at 0.60 while urban income inequality worsened to 0.65 percent in 2015 from 0.60 in 2006. Given that growth was sluggish during the 7NDP period, it is expected that this trend would have remained the same, if not worse. There is, therefore, need to invest in labour-intensive industries that create job opportunities as well as undertake interventions that improve productivity in key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, among others. Access to social protection services such as food security packs, social cash transfers, and public welfare assistance for the vulnerable increased between 2006 and 2021. The number of farmer households supported with food security packs increased to 36,300 in 2021 from 28,527 in 2006. That of incapacitated households provided with social cash transfers, increased to 880,539 beneficiaries in 2021 from 2,905 beneficiaries in 2006. Meanwhile, the number of incapacitated households accessing in-kind support through the Public Welfare Assistance Scheme reduced to 31,000 beneficiaries in 2021 from 151,731 beneficiaries in 2006, partly as a consequence of the expansion of the social cash transfer programme. Nonetheless, effective implementation of the social cash transfer interventions faced several challenges. These included poor targeting of beneficiaries, especially the extremely poor and vulnerable, low integration of social protection programmes, intermittent release of funds and lack of an integrated automated Social Protection Management Information System. These need to be addressed going forward.

2.3.3 Education and Skills Development Achieving universal access to education as espoused by the Vision 2030 and the SDGs remained Government policy on education. In 2011, the Government integrated Early Childhood Education (ECE) into the mainstream education system. In 2013, the Government introduced ECE centres in primary schools to create space for early learners and recruited 1,000 ECE teachers. As a result, enrolments increased from 47,317 pupils in 2011 to 258,616 pupils in 2020, although the ratio of teachers and caregivers was recorded at 1 to 80 pupils. Consequently, following the policy change, the Government became the largest ECE service provider accounting for 62.2 percent of the total enrolment in 2020. Notwithstanding the increase, the enrolment rate stood at only 11.2 percent of the total target population as of 2020. This is well below the target of achieving universal access to ECE. The noted challenges included insufficient public spending for ECE activities, inadequate and inappropriate infrastructure and long distances to ECE centres, especially in rural areas. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 15 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Over the period 2005 to 2020, enrolments at Grade 1 level increased by 22 percent to 543,675 pupils from 444,300. Although Grade 1 entrants increased over the years, the average annual increase was 1.5 percent which is below the population growth rate of 2.8 percent, implying that a significant proportion of the target population remained outside the school system. In relation to gender, there were more female pupils accessing education at Grade 1 in that for every 100 male pupils enrolled, there was a corresponding 103 female pupils. The net enrolment rates at primary level reduced to 81.8 percent in 2020 from 95.8 percent recorded in 2006, thus threatening the achievement of universal access to primary education. Secondary school net enrolment rates, though registering improvements from 22.2 percent in 2006 to 37.6 percent in 2020, still remain very low. The low enrolments at secondary school were in part a reflection of the low number of school places at Grade 10. This is also reflected by the low transition rates from Grade 9 to Grade 10 that stood at 46.8 percent in 2020. The completion rates at Grade 12 stood at 32 percent in 2020 from 17.7 percent in 2006 (see Figure 11). This implied that less than one-third of the young people in this category obtained sufficient functional literacy to allow them to have a productive life. Figure 11: Education Indicators and Progression Rates, 2006-2020 Source: Ministry of Education It is also important to note that the quality of education, as measured by the pupil-teacher ratio, is a concern, particularly at primary school level which recorded an average of 56.5 pupils per teacher at primary school level compared to 26.1 pupils per teacher at secondary school level in 2020. Although the pupil-teacher ratio for secondary school appears to be favourable, there remains huge disparities across subjects. Going forward, therefore, concerted efforts are needed to improve access to equitable education and retain the pupil population within the school system at both primary and secondary school levels, as well as ensure improvement in the quality of education. This includes the recruitment of teachers in 2022 and subsequent years. At the tertiary level, positive strides were made in increasing access to higher education with good progress registered in the number of training institutions which increased to 9 from 3, for public universities and to 54 from 3, for private universities as of 2020. This was also accompanied by improvements in the proportion 16 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 of leaners in universities graduating in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) from 23 percent in 2016 to 30 percent in 2019. Progress was also recorded in the provision of vocational skills through Technical Education, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Training (TEVET) institutions across the country. Skills training has the highest potential to capacitate the youth for employability, many of whom do not complete their primary or secondary level education. However, the challenge that remains is improving the quality of TEVET education. For instance, according to the 2020 Skills Survey undertaken by the Zambia Statistics Agency, 62.3 percent of the registered TEVET institutions were in grade three category, which is the lowest level in the grading system for quality, while 29.9 percent of the institutions were in grade two category. Only 7.8 percent were in grade one. This, therefore, requires the recapitalisation of TEVET training institutions and reconfiguration of the way TEVET skills are delivered. Further, for effective skills development, there is need to incorporate skills training into the primary and secondary curricula, reconfigure the delivery of skills training to include instruction in local languages, as well as provide a framework for lifelong training to build skills as is the case with most white-collar professions.

2.3.4 Health and Nutrition Zambia’s epidemiological profile has been characterised by the high prevalence and impact of preventable and treatable communicable diseases as well as the growing burden of non communicable diseases (NCDs). Among the major factors leading to the high disease burden is the persistence of infectious diseases such as malaria, HIV and AIDS, pneumonia, and tuberculosis (TB). The increase in non-communicable diseases such as cancers, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes has also contributed to the disease burden. In terms of communicable diseases, the incidence of malaria decreased to 312 per 1,000 population in 2018 from 408 per 1,000 population in 2014, and that of TB declined to 346 per 1,000 population from 406 per 1,000 population during the same period. Further, the HIV prevalence among women and men aged 15-49 years decreased to 11.1 percent in 2018 from 13.3 percent in 2014. Notwithstanding the decrease in communicable diseases, the disease burden remains high. There are multiple risk factors for NCDs that show unfavourable levels and trends in Zambia. Obesity and overweight are important risk factors for hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers. The prevalence of obesity among women increased significantly from 22.8 percent in 2014 to 32.5 percent in 2017. Key national health indicators such as infant mortality, under-five mortality and maternal mortality, however, improved over the review period. The neonatal mortality prevalence reduced to 24 per 1,000 livebirths in 2013/14 from 34 per 1,000 live births in 2007, although it increased from 24 per 1,000 live births in 2013/14 to 27 per 1,000 live births in 2018. The gains made were due to increased investments in health infrastructure such as the construction of general hospitals, specialist hospitals, and mini-hospitals as well as health posts. Further, the population to doctor ratio improved to 5,900 per doctor in 2019 from 10,886 in 2016, while the population to nurse ratio also improved to 995 per nurse from 1,366. Additionally, interventions aimed at ensuring universal health access resulted in an increase in the proportion of eligible people covered by the national health insurance scheme to 29 percent in 2020 from 3.9 percent in 2016. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 17 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA However, challenges remained in the delivery of quality health services in respect of consistent supply of essential medical supplies, recruitment and placement of health personnel as well as in the effective management of NCDs. Rural communities continued to face more challenges in accessing health services compared to those in urban areas. This was mainly due to a low health-seeking culture among communities, low health personnel to population ratio, long distances to health facilities, inadequate supplies of medical commodities, and inadequate numbers of specialists to deal with complex medical conditions. The country equally made steady progress in various nutritional outcomes. Stunting for children under five years old reduced to 35 percent in 2018 from 40.1 percent in 2014. Underweight and wasting also reduced to 12 percent from 14.8 percent and to 4 percent from 6 percent, respectively. The multi sectoral approach adopted for tackling nutrition through programmes such as micro-nutrients fortification and supplementation, especially during the first 1,000 critical days in the lifecycle of a child, contributed to the steady strides made during the review period. Efforts aimed at increasing access to health care, enhancing the nutrition status of pregnant women, improving antenatal practices and care as well as maternal health service delivery, will continue to be undertaken.

2.3.5 Water and Sanitation The country made progress towards increasing access to water and sanitation. The percentage of the population that had access to an improved water source increased to 72.3 percent in 2018 from 41.1 percent in 2007. With regard to sanitation, the percentage of households with access to an improved sanitation facility at national level increased to 54.4 percent in 2018 from 35.5 percent in 2007. In rural areas, access increased to 37.2 percent in 2018 from 17.3 percent in 2007, while in urban areas it increased to 77.7 percent from 70 percent over the same period. The improvement was attributed to consistent public sector investments in water and sanitation, coupled with support from cooperating and development partners (see Table 3). Table 3: Access to Water and Sanitation (%), 2007-2018 INDICATORS 2007 2013/14 2018 Access to an Improved Water Source (Households) Total 41.1 64.7 72.3 Rural 19.2 46.9 58.0 Urban 82.5 89.6 91.8 Access to an Improved Sanitation Facility (Households) Total 35.5 45.5 54.4 Rural 17.3 25.8 37.2 Urban 70.0 73.1 77.7 Source: Zambia Statistics Agency 18 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 In spite of the gains made in improving access to water and sanitation in urban areas, the increase in unplanned settlements were a major drawback on Government efforts to provide safe water and adequate sanitation. There is, therefore, need to improve town and country planning and implement decentralisation that will entrench participatory planning with communities in various constituencies and wards.

2.3.6 Governance Environment During the review period, the foundation was set for the implementation of decentralisation. To this end, the 2004 Decentralisation Policy was reviewed in 2013 to provide a clear direction on the mode of decentralisation with identified functions to be devolved. The Constitution of the Republic of Zambia (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2016 under Articles 162 and 163 further strengthened decentralisation through devolution. In addition, the Local Government Act No. 2 of 2019 was enacted to provide a platform for citizen participation at sub-district level through Ward Development Committees (WDCs). This, notwithstanding, the pace of transferring devolved functions to the local authorities was slow. Only HIV and AIDS coordination and the management of district aerodromes were devolved. To improve the financial position of the councils as part of the decentralisation process, the Local Government Equalisation Fund was legislated in the Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2016 and a Debt Management Strategy developed. During the period 2022-2026, focus will be on actualising the country’s decentralisation agenda. According to the ranking on the Corruption Perception Index, Zambia’s performance dropped from 38 out of 100 in 2013 to 33 out of 100 in 2021. To curb corruption, integrity committees were established and electronic payment systems for Government services developed. Interventions to strengthen public finance internal controls were also implemented. Further, measures were implemented to improve efficiency in external audit processes and ensure timely audits and production of audit reports. In addition, efficiency was enhanced through the development of the automated Audit Management System.

2.4 KEY LESSONS LEARNT The review of the performance of previous NDPs provided valuable lessons that informed the formulation of the 8NDP. The following are some of the key lessons learnt: a) Actualisation of the decentralisation reform agenda is a necessary precondition for attainment of people- centred sustainable development; b) Weak alignment of annual budgets to outputs in the NDPs makes it difficult to achieve objectives and targets; c) Improvement in the performance of NDPs is premised on the setting of realistic targets, given that it takes time for limiting factors, such as legislation, required financing, human resources and capacity enhancements to be actualised; d) Incorporating the participation of key stakeholders in time throughout the plan formulation process ensures ownership and contributes to successful plan implementation; Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 19 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA e) Prudent fiscal management is critical for economic development; f) Delays in the undertaking of legal reforms, including the processing of legislation negatively affects the achievement of planned objectives; g) Production of quality and timely statistical data as well as its use is important for effective monitoring and evaluation as well as informed policy decision-making; h) A strong monitoring and evaluation system is essential for timely tracking of progress as well for informing policy decision-making; i) Rigorous project appraisal processes are critical to ensure value for money; j) Targeting of programmes and projects to geographical locations and beneficiaries should be guided by demographic analysis and levels of deprivation; and k) Lack of risk management frameworks in the public sector undermines the capacity to respond in a timely manner when risks emerge, thereby negatively impacting the attainment of development results. 20 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 PART III: MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 21 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 3. MACROECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES The 8NDP was formulated against the backdrop of macroeconomic challenges worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to the contraction of the economy by 2.8 percent in 2020. However, in 2021, estimates indicated a real GDP recovery to 3.6 percent. Inflation declined to 16.4 percent at the end of 2021 from 19.2 percent at the end of 2020 against the medium-term target range of 6-8 percent. This decline was largely due to the appreciation of the exchange rate, partial dissipation of the shocks to food prices and improved supply of some food items, particularly maize. The fiscal deficit (including amortisation) was 9.0 percent of GDP in 2021 compared to 14.4 percent in 2020 on account of strong revenue collections, despite expenditure exceeding the target by 14.3 percent in 2020. Gross international reserves improved to US$2.8 billion (4.4 months of import cover) in 2021 from US$1.2 billion (2.4 months of import cover) in 2020 mainly boosted by the general allocation of SDR 937.6 million by the IMF. External debt, at US$13.04 billion dollars or 72 percent of GDP, remained unsustainable.

3.1 MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES During the Plan period, the Government seeks to restore macroeconomic stability by raising real GDP growth as well as attaining fiscal and debt sustainability to improve the livelihoods of the Zambian people, especially the vulnerable. Attaining this will require strong policy action and the implementation of structural reforms. Pursuant to the above, the macroeconomic objectives for the 8NDP are to: a) Achieve an annual real GDP growth rate of at least 4.5 percent by 2026; b) Reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.6 percent of GDP by 2026; c) Maintain an annual domestic revenue to GDP ratio of at least 21 percent; d) Contain domestic borrowing to less than 4.8 percent of GDP by 2026; e) Dismantle domestic arrears and curtail accumulation of new arrears; f) Reduce and maintain inflation within the target range of 6-8 percent; g) Maintain international reserves of at least 3 months of import cover; and h) Reduce the external debt to 60 percent of GDP and ensure sustainability. Refer to Table 4 for key macroeconomic targets, including the real GDP growth rate, inflation and domestic borrowing. Table 4: Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2022-2026 Baseline Source of Key Performance Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 (2021)* Statistics Real GDP growth rate (%) 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.2 4.5 ZamStats/MoFNP GDP at constant prices (ZMW 143,447.6 147,197.00 152,506.50 158,467.20 165,188.00 172,686.60 ZamStats/MoFNP millions) GDP at market prices (ZMW millions 424,269.0 460,616.5 522,881.0 583,733.2 649,115.8 717,592.7 ZamStats/MoFNP CPI* inflation (%, end period) 16.4 <10 6-8 6-8 6-8 6-8 ZamStats/BoZ Domestic borrowing (% of GDP) 7.7 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.9 4.8 MoFNP Domestic revenue (% of GDP) 23.6 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.0 MoFNP Overall fiscal deficit (% of GDP) 9.0 6.7 6.3 5.2 4.6 3.6 MoFNP Gross international reserves (months 4.4 ≥3.0 ≥3.0 ≥3.0 ≥3.0 ≥3.0 BoZ of import cover) *Note that all baseline data is preliminary with the exception of CPI inflation and gross international reserves *CPI: Consumer Price Index 22 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

3.2 MACROECONOMIC POLICIES

3.2.1 Achieving Higher and Inclusive Growth The policy over the Plan period is to improve living standards as well as to reduce poverty and inequality by creating conditions for strong and inclusive growth. This is anchored on Economic Transformation and Job Creation through implementation of interventions to enhance production and productivity in the agriculture, tourism, mining and manufacturing sectors. Further, the Government will pursue an export- oriented economic transformation agenda.

3.2.2 Fiscal Policy and Reforms To achieve fiscal sustainability, a combination of measures, including enhancements in domestic resource mobilisation, expenditure rationalisation and debt restructuring, will be pursued. Key interventions in tax policy will include enhancing compliance while streamlining the structure of tax incentives to support economic transformation. The capacity of local authorities will also be strengthened to enhance revenue collection. Total expenditure (including amortisation) is projected to reduce to 30.0 percent of GDP in 2026 from 33.9 percent in 2021 This will largely be attained through significant reforms on subsidies, particularly in the energy and agriculture sectors, as well as rationalising spending on capital projects with emphasis on public private partnership (PPP) due to fiscal constraints. In this regard, the focus will be on reducing the pace of debt accumulation to attain long-term debt sustainability.

3.2.3 Debt Management Strategy During the Plan period, the Government will revise the Loans and Guarantees (Authorisation) Act of 1969 to enhance transparency in debt management and provide for parliamentary oversight in the contraction of loans. Further, a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy covering the period 2023 to 2025 will be developed for the country to return to sustainable debt levels. Under domestic debt, the focus will be on the issuance of longer-dated instruments, taking into account market conditions and costs to reduce the refinancing risk. With regard to external debt, the Government will seek to restructure debt under the auspices of the G20 Common Framework on Debt Treatment.

3.2.4 Dismantling of Domestic Arrears The Government has prioritised the dismantling of domestic arrears and will, therefore, develop an arrears dismantling strategy to be implemented over the Plan period. The strategy will address the existing stock of arrears relating to personal emoluments, bills for consumption of public utilities, value-added tax (VAT) refunds, FISP, crop purchases under the Food Reserve Agency, pension benefits, awards and compensation, capital expenditure on civil works including road construction, as well as that of other suppliers of goods and services. Further, arrears on fuel and electricity (debt to independent power producers and power imports) which are foreign currency-denominated will be addressed through this strategy. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 23 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA The key measures of the strategy include increasing budgetary allocations to liquidate the arrears, undertaking debt and/or cheque swaps, debt refinancing and restructuring, as well as halting or slowing down the pace of accumulation of new arrears. The aim is to clear all domestic arrears within the medium to long-term.

3.2.5 Monetary and Financial Sector Policies During the Plan period, monetary and financial sector policies will aim at maintaining price and financial system stability which are critical to promoting sustainable growth. Monetary policy will continue to rely on the forward-looking monetary policy framework anchored on the Policy Rate as a key signal of the policy stance. To ensure financial system stability, the Bank of Zambia will strengthen both micro and macro-prudential regulations and supervision to mitigate the build-up in vulnerabilities and risks to the financial system. In addition, a Deposit Protection Scheme and Problem Bank Framework will be implemented. The Government will also repeal and replace the Bank of Zambia Act of 1996 during the Plan period to strengthen central bank autonomy and enhance monetary policy credibility in line with the Constitutional (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2016 and the adoption of the SADC Central Bank Model Law.

3.2.6 External Sector Policies During the 8NDP period, the Government will continue to promote exports as a strategy for long-term economic growth. In addition to increasing traditional exports of commodities such as copper, widening the export base of non-traditional exports will be the focus to increase export earnings. This strategy will positively impact the country’s international competitiveness, buttress the stability of the exchange rate and ensure current account sustainability. In this regard, focus will be on expanding export earnings from various sectors, especially mining, agriculture, manufacturing and tourism. Further, the Government will continue facilitating and formalising trade with neighbouring countries. With regard to the exchange rate policy, a flexible system will be maintained while mitigating excessive volatility. To maintain reserves to at least three months of import cover, the Government will, in addition to promoting increased exports, continue with the policy requiring all mining companies to pay their tax obligations in United States dollars. Further, the Bank of Zambia will continue to build up its stock of gold bullion as part of the interventions to increase foreign reserves, through the purchase of locally-mined gold.

3.3 KEY REFORMS TO SUPPORT THE MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES Over the Plan period, the Government will implement the following reforms to achieve the set macroeconomic objectives: a) Strengthen public finance management: This will be central to restoring budget credibility, improving the efficiency of public expenditures, and supporting private sector-led growth. The goals of public finance management are to enhance domestic resource mobilisation, increase the efficiency of public expenditure, halt the accumulation of arrears and improve fiscal transparency. The Government will also ensure adherence to the legal provisions and guidelines on public investment management as well 24 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 as the enforcement of the penalty regime in both the Public Finance Management Act and the Public Procurement Act. b) Establish a fiscal risk management framework: In light of slowing growth, tighter fiscal conditions, and the high debt burden, the Government will closely monitor fiscal risks by developing a risk monitoring framework to anticipate expenditure pressures and revenue shocks. c) Strengthen the legal framework for public-private partnership (PPP): To leverage on PPP financing for developmental projects, the Public-Private Partnership Act No. 14 of 2009 will be revised to, among others, strengthen the framework for managing fiscal risks, such as fiscal commitments and potential contingent liabilities. In addition, Government will work on improving the management of unsolicited proposals as well as PPPs being implemented by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). These changes are intended to support the delivery of cost-effective and sustainable infrastructure projects. d) Undertake Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) reforms: To improve support for small-scale farmers and create conditions for them to more effectively contribute to the growth of the agriculture sector, the Government will implement a comprehensive agriculture support programme (CASP) beginning in the 2022/2023 farming season aimed at improving production and productivity. The scope of the comprehensive programme will include provision of inputs through the electronic agro-input system, extension service support, access to finance, support to value-addition, storage and logistics as well as the provision of inputs through the electronic agro-input system. It will also address the challenges experienced with the current FISP which is cost-inefficient, and falls short on effective targeting and equitable treatment of beneficiaries. e) Undertake energy sector reforms: To improve performance of the energy sector, the Government will implement reforms to remove the inefficiencies in the fuel supply chain by among others, supplying fuel through pipelines and undertaking procurement reforms to standardise supply contract prices. In the electricity sub-sector, reforms will focus on enhancing the operational efficiency of ZESCO Limited including its cost structure. f) Strengthen performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs): To ensure a return on investment and improve the contribution of SOEs to the economy, the Government will provide a clear policy and sound legal and regulatory framework for SOEs. The SOE Policy will be revised and a law enacted to strengthen institutional arrangements and adherence to best practices in corporate governance, thereby providing for their sustainable performance. Supervision and performance monitoring of SOEs and collaboration among relevant key stakeholders will be strengthened. This will ultimately improve the overall performance of SOEs and minimise fiscal outlays from the Treasury. g) Strengthen fiscal decentralisation: The design of the fiscal decentralisation architecture will focus on strengthening prudent utilisation of resources, domestic revenue mobilisation, debt sustainability, sub- national borrowing and provision of inter-governmental transfers (between central and local government) that are sufficiently large and flexible to influence aggregate demand and service provision at the local level. The Government will also develop effective mechanisms on revenue sharing between central government and local authorities. These reforms will anchor the Extended Credit Faciltiy Programme with the International Monetary Fund and assist in restructuring of external debt, resulting in improved investor confidence and availability of affordable international financing. It will also be expected to unlock financing from cooperating and development partners and enable the country to access concessional financing for budget support. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 25 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 26 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 PART III: 8NDP TOWARDS THE NATIONAL VISION Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 27 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

4.0 TOWARDS THE VISION 2030

4.1. OVERVIEW OF THE VISION 2030 Zambia aspires to become “A Prosperous Middle-Income Nation by 2030”. As such by 2030, Zambians look forward to live in a strong, dynamic, competitive and self-sustaining middle-income industrialised country, which is resilient to external shocks and provides opportunities for improving the wellbeing of all. The Vision coincides with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which aims to end poverty, fight inequality and injustice and tackle climate change through the pursuance of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By 2030, the country should have made substantial progress towards the attainment of these global goals. The 8NDP, therefore, provides an avenue for catalysing the nation’s response to addressing the developmental challenges over the 2022-2026 period in the quest to attain the Vision 2030, SDGs and other regional and international commitments. By the end of this decade, the economy is expected to be diversified with a balanced and cohesive industrial sector which has strong linkages in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Technologically, proficiency should have been harnessed by optimising human and natural resources. Additionally, the country’s population, especially the youth should have strong entrepreneurial capabilities, be self-reliant, outward looking and enterprising, and be able to take advantage of the potential and available opportunities for socio-economic development. Further, the country is envisaged to be economically, socially and politically integrated within the sub-region, Africa and the rest of the world. Internally, a shared destiny, unity in diversity and patriotism will equitably integrate all citizens in a democratic governance system that is devolved to the sub-national levels. The preservation of social, cultural and moral values of the Zambian society will also be key to attainment of the socio-economic development aspired for in the Vision 2030.

4.2 MOVING TOWARDS THE VISION 2030: WHAT IT WILL TAKE Progress was made towards attainment of the socio-economic development objectives of the Vision 2030 during the implementation of the FNDP, SNDP and 7NDP. However, the progress achieved so far has not been sufficient to enable the country realise the Vision. Therefore, there is need to accelerate progress, during the 8NDP period, through the implementation of wide ranging reforms and interventions to build on the achievements of the previous NDPs and address the constraints impeding development. To this end, the following strategic development areas will be pursued in the 8NDP: a) Economic Transformation and Job Creation: Economic transformation will be anchored on industrialisation with a focus on value-addition in agriculture, mining and manufacturing which have strong local forward and backward linkages. Focus within the manufacturing sector will be on light manufacturing which is characterised by operations that have low capital requirements, are labour- intensive, and produce goods for final consumption. Priority will also be given to job-rich sectors such as tourism. Further, focus will be placed on the development of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across all sectors as they have high income and job creation potential. 28 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 The economic transformation agenda will be led by the private sector while the Government will provide an enabling and supportive environment through the delivery of requisite policies, regulations and infrastructure. These interventions will result in increased productivity and the creation of employment opportunities, especially for the youth and women. Further, the economic transformation agenda will ultimately build the economy’s resilience to both external and domestic shocks. b) Human and Social Development: Human development entails having a well-educated, highly skilled and healthy labour force to propel Zambia to become a thriving and industrialised nation as espoused in the Vision 2030. Thus, during the 8NDP period, interventions will focus on increasing access to, and improving the quality of education, health and water and sanitation, as well as enhancing social protection. This will contribute to the reduction in poverty and inequality. c) Environmental Sustainability: In pursuit of the economic transformation agenda, it is imperative that development pathways are sustainable. This entails the sustainable utilisation of natural resources which are the basis for wealth creation, as well as building resilience to the adverse effects of climate change. Thus, measures aimed at promoting green growth, safeguarding the environment and natural resources, enhancing climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as strengthening disaster risk reduction, have been prioritised. d) Good Governance Environment: Good governance entails creating a conducive environment characterised by participation, rule of law, transparency, accountability, consensus-building, responsiveness, equity and inclusiveness, effectiveness and efficiency. In this regard, during the 8NDP period, focus will be on improving the policy and governance environment as well as on promoting adherence to the rule of law and constitutionalism. The strategic development areas of the 8NDP outlined above are set to drive the country towards the attainment of the Vision 2030 aspirations. Economic Transformation and Job Creation will be the key strategic development area, with the other strategic development areas ultimately supporting the country’s economic transformation agenda. Figure 12 shows the linkages between the 8NDP and the Vision 2030. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 29 30 Figure 12: Situating the 8NDP in the Vision 2030 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA ECONOMIC KEY STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION DEVELOPMENT AREA AND JOB CREATION DRIVERS AGRICULTURE MANUFACTURING MINING TOURISM EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 ENERGY | TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS | TECHNOLOGY | WATER | INFRASTRUCTURE | SKILLS ENABLERS SUPPORTING STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREAS HUMAN & SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOOD GOVERNANCE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABILITY ENVIRONMENT Self- Sustaining Human Capital Protection of Socio-Economic Stable Social and Economy Resilient Formation Biological and Justice Cultural Systems to Shocks Physical Systems VISION ASPIRATIONS AN INDUSTRIALISED MIDDLE-INCOME COMPETITIVE ECONOMY PART IV: THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREAS OF THE 8NDP Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 31 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 5. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 1: ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND JOB CREATION

5.1 OVERVIEW The economy is characterised by low diversification and high unemployment levels. As evidenced by the top three sector concentration ratio for the period 2017 to 2020, wholesale and retail trade, mining and quarrying as well as construction, were the dominant sectors which accounted for almost 50 percent of GDP. Whereas the average contribution of the agriculture, manufacturing and tourism sectors, with high potential for job creation, was only 11.8 percent over the same period. It is, therefore, the focus of the country to attain economic transformation that will be marked by advancements in industrialisation and economic diversification for sustained growth driven by the agriculture, mining, manufacturing and tourism sectors. This will entail shifting labour and other resources from low to higher productive activities between and within sectors. Ultimately, this will increase employment opportunities for all Zambians. To ensure sustainable economic transformation and resilience of the economy, measures will be undertaken to transition Zambia to a modern green and resource efficient economy.

5.2 CURRENT SITUATION Agriculture, mining, manufacturing and tourism are key drivers upon which the country’s economic transformation and growth agenda is anchored. These sectors also account for a significant proportion of employed persons. Currently, the agriculture sector provides livelihood to more than 70 percent of Zambia’s population. In terms of performance, in the ten-year period between 2011 and 2020, agricultural growth averaged 0.4 percent while its share of GDP was 5.8 percent. The sector growth was lower than the annual national population growth rate of 2.8 percent, in spite of it being the mainstay of a large proportion of the population. Implicitly, the incomes of households that are dependent on this sector have been declining. Further, the sector has been characterised by low productivity, limited mechanisation and is largely rainfall dependent. Growth in the mining sector between 2011 and 2020 averaged 2.5 percent and its contribution to GDP averaged 14.8 percent. The sector, however, has been characterised by low diversification; limited exploration and exploitation; low participation and productivity of small-scale miners; high levels of informality and low value-addition to mineral endowments, particularly in non-copper mining activities. Additionally, export diversification remains low, with traditional exports largely comprising copper which on average accounts for more than 70 percent of total exports. This situation justifies the strong need to increase investments, especially for non-traditional minerals, as a means of transforming the economy and creating more jobs. Over the 2011-2020 period, the manufacturing sector recorded an average growth rate of 4.8 percent, albeit with fluctuations, and its share of GDP averaged 7.2 percent. However, the sector has been characterised by low-value manufactured products and rudimentary value and supply chains that are vulnerable to shocks. In the last decade, the sector has been dominated by the food and beverage sub-sector which accounted for 32.5 percent share of total manufacturing, followed by base metals at 29.4 percent, making a case for the need to transform the sector by increasing the manufacturing of high-value products. Thus, increased investment in manufacturing will promote strong backward and forward linkages with other sectors such as agriculture and mining which are key catalysts for higher and sustainable economic growth and job creation 32 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 The tourism sector grew by an average of 3.1 percent and its share of GDP was 1.5 percent over the 2011-2020 period. Tourism has begun to take prominence in the economy as one of the significant sources of employment, accounting for 15.7 percent of employment in 2019. However, the sector was one of the hardest hit by COVID-19 due to travel restrictions, resulting in a 26 percent contraction in the growth rate in 2020. There is, therefore, need to revive the sector by encouraging domestic tourism as well as addressing the challenges of low product diversification, low investment, poor infrastructure and the high cost of doing business.

5.3 CONSTRAINTS Economic transformation requires a holistic approach to addressing the multi-faceted constraints that face key sectors of the economy. The major constraints to economic transformation and job creation continue to be low diversification and industrialisation, low citizen participation and low private sector competitiveness as well as low access to affordable finance. Diversification and industrialisation are constrained by inadequate infrastructure in economic sectors such as transport, energy, agriculture and ICT, especially in rural areas. This contributes to the high cost of doing business and ultimately affects productivity and the competitiveness of the economy. In addition, inadequate access to productive resources, especially low-cost financing, adversely impacts efforts to industrialise and diversify the economy at the desired rate. Further, limited research and development, coupled with low use of applied research and innovation have compounded the low rate of industrialisation and diversification. Effective citizens’ participation in economic activities is hampered by low savings rate, casualisation, poor credit culture, high cost of borrowing that limits access to finance, and inadequate capacities in the development of bankable proposals. Other challenges include lack of skilled labour, low entrepreneurial and vocational skills as well as inadequate apprenticeship programmes for the youth. Despite the Government’s efforts to address these constraints, poor implementation of empowerment programmes characterised by inadequate business support services and poor loan recovery, has hindered progress. This is exacerbated by high levels of informality, limiting access to auxiliary support services. Policy inconsistency continues to be a constraint to private sector competitiveness. This has impacted long- term investment decisions by the private sector, especially in the mining and agriculture sectors, specifically in relation to taxation and export trade policies. Other constraints include high set-up costs, multiplicity of regulatory fees and licenses, and prolonged processes for accessing licenses and permits, land titling and electricity connection. Weak market information systems also limit the ability of the private sector to fully take advantage of domestic and international markets. Inadequate uptake and failure to meet standardisation, quality assurance and sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, particularly in international markets, coupled with inefficiencies at key border posts, which result in delays in clearing goods, all negatively impact the competitiveness of Zambian products. To overcome these constraints, strategies and programmes aimed at achieving a diversified and industrialised economy, enhancing citizenry participation and promoting private sector competitiveness will be implemented during the 8NDP period. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 33 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

5.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: AN INDUSTRIALISED AND DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY Creation of an industrialised and diversified economy is a key development outcome of the 8NDP. To this end, the Government will implement a number of strategies. These will include increasing agricultural production and productivity; promoting mining of traditional and non-traditional minerals; promoting value- addition and manufacturing; as well as promoting tourism growth. Other strategies will include enhancing generation, transmission and distribution of electricity; diversifying to other renewable as well as clean alternative energy sources; enhancing management of petroleum products; improving transport and logistics; upscaling the provision of industry-relevant skills; investing in applied research and development; enhancing digital capacity; and strengthening management and productive use of water resources.

5.4.1 Strategy 1: Increase Agricultural Production and Productivity The Government will aim to increase production and productivity in the agriculture sector. To this end, the Government will create an enabling environment for private sector growth in the agriculture sector by providing a stable trade policy with emphasis on easing of restrictions on exports of agricultural commodities and facilitating access to finance. Additionally, a robust comprehensive agriculture support programme will be implemented beginning from the 2022/2023 farming season. The programme will encompass the provision of inputs through the electronic agro-input system as well as extension service support, support for value- addition, storage and logistics. Further, the programme will provide for better targeting and equity across beneficiaries. Tree crop production and irrigation development will also be promoted. To support increased production in the sector, research and development will be prioritised, particularly in the development of improved varieties and breeds of crops including tree crops, livestock and fish. To increase hectarage under production and enhance productivity, agricultural mechanisation will be promoted. The Government will also promote farm block development with special focus on diversification of crops and expansion of the livestock and fisheries sub-sectors. The farm block concept entails the creation of specialised agricultural production and processing zones. Resettlement schemes will also be developed as centres for agricultural production. Interventions in fisheries will aim at promoting investments for increased fingerling production and establishing and operationalising fish breeding and freezing centres, as measures to bridge the domestic fish deficit and expand into the regional market. Livestock production will be enhanced through establishing community- managed livestock service centres, provincial livestock insemination centres and veterinary laboratories. The Government will also devolve veterinary services to improve efficiency in the livestock sub-sector. These interventions are expected to result in an agricultural growth rate of at least 10 percent per annum over the Plan period. Over the same period, agricultural exports are also expected to increase to above US$2 billion by 2026 from US$756.2 million in 2021. 34 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Programmes: a) Infrastructure development b) Agricultural mechanisation c) Farmer input support d) Agroforestry and tree crops development e) Agribusiness development f) Irrigation development g) Fisheries and aquaculture development h) Research and development i) Livestock development j) Extension services support k) Early warning and surveillance systems l) Farm block and resettlement schemes development

5.4.2 Strategy 2: Promote Traditional and Non-Traditional Minerals Promotion of traditional and non-traditional minerals will be achieved through the opening up of new mines and increasing production in existing ones. For copper, the aim is to increase production to 3 million metric tonnes by 2032. To contribute to the diversification of the mining sector, exploration and exploitation of minerals such as gold, gemstones and manganese as well as petroleum resources will be promoted. For the country to tap into regional and global markets and value chains, local beneficiation and value addition to minerals will be encouraged. This will be done through a national supplier development policy that will be developed to promote local value-addition and participation of local players in the mining supply chain. Key to this will be the promotion of both domestic and foreign direct investment in the production of batteries, electric motor vehicles and renewable energies. The Government will also encourage the formation of cooperatives among artisanal and small-scale miners as well as facilitate access to support services to enhance their productivity, including linkages to value chains. This will open up opportunities for the youth, men and women at community level to participate in mining value chains in a more formalised and structured arrangement. With these interventions it is expected that by 2026, copper output will increase to 1.5 million metric tonnes from 868,000 metric tonnes in 2020. The value of mineral exports (excluding copper and cobalt) is expected to increase to at least US$1 billion by 2026. Programmes: a) Mineral and petroleum exploration and exploitation b) Mineral tax and mining reforms c) Mineral beneficiation and value-addition d) Artisanal and small-scale mining development Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 35 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

5.4.3 Strategy 3: Promote Value-Addition and Manufacturing To successfully diversify and industrialise, the Government will implement interventions aimed at accelerating growth in the manufacturing sector. Among them will be ensuring increased local content and investment for value-addition to products from the agriculture, forestry and mining sectors as well as trade facilitation. Focus within the manufacturing sector will be on light manufacturing which is characterised by operations that are less capital intensive but more labour intensive. The value chains that will be prioritised include processed foods, engineering, wood and wood products, textiles, leather and leather products, metallic and non-metallic mineral beneficiation and value-addition, and pharmaceuticals. The Government will also promote the development and operationalisation of multi-facility economic zones and industrial parks including through the provision of appropriate incentives. With these interventions, the target is to attain an average annual growth rate of at least 5 percent for the manufacturing sector over the Plan period. The share of manufactured goods in total non-traditional exports is also expected to increase to 55 percent in 2026 from 44 percent in 2020. Programmes: a) Value chain development b) Market linkages c) Investment promotion d) Multi-facility economic zones and industrial parks e) Skills training

5.4.4 Strategy 4: Promote Tourism Growth The Government will revamp the tourism sector and support its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, as it presents opportunities for job creation for local communities through activities such as traditional ceremonies, basketry, local cuisine promotion, curio-making, music and dance. The focus will be on the development of the Northern and Southern Circuits, particularly around Kasaba Bay and Liuwa National Park. This will be done through the development of infrastructure, coupled with a supportive regulatory and licencing framework to attract private investment. Further, the Government will promote the hosting of meetings, international conferences and events leveraging on recent infrastructure developments, such as the upgraded airports including the Kenneth Kaunda and Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe International Airports, as well as increased hotels and conferencing facilities. With these interventions, it is expected that the tourism sector will register an average annual growth rate of at least 4.5 percent over the Plan period, from an annual average of 3.1 percent recorded for the 2011-2020 period. The number of international tourist arrivals per year is expected to increase to 3 million by 2026 from 501,606 in 2020. Visits to national parks and tourism sites by domestic tourists are targeted to increase to 100,000 and 300,000 from 22,720 and 90,370 in 2020, respectively. 36 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Programmes: a) Infrastructure development b) Tourism product development c) Tourism promotion and marketing d) Wildlife management

5.4.5 Strategy 5: Improve Transport and Logistics Improvements will be made in the transport and logistics sub-sectors, with the focus on positioning the country as a regional transport and logistics hub. This will be done through the maintenance, development, modernisation and integration of road, rail, air and water transport infrastructure. This will also contribute to the opening up of rural areas for development and enhancing participation of local communities in the economy. Further, infrastructure to support cross border trade in border areas will be put in place. Among the key measures for the effective implementation of this strategy will be strengthening local level capacities for planning and development of transport infrastructure. Further, the Government will take deliberate steps to ensure that at least 30 percent of bulk cargo is moved off the roads to the railway line through improvements to rail infrastructure. The volume of passengers and cargo transported by roads, rail and air are also expected to increase during the Plan period. With the above interventions, it is expected that the transport and logistics sub-sector will register an annual average growth rate of 5.5 percent from an annual average of 0.6 percent over the 2011-2020 period. Programmes: a) Aviation development b) Road development and maintenance c) Rail development and maintenance d) Inland water transport development and maintenance e) Inland dry ports development f) Trade centre development g) Warehousing development

5.4.6 Strategy 6: Enhance Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electricity In the electricity sub-sector, reforms will be implemented to make the sector more efficient and effective. Focus will be on increasing electricity generation capacity and promotion of alternative green and renewable energy sources as well as scaling up rural electrification. The increase in generation capacity will be anchored on the reforms that will be undertaken in the electricity sub-sector to attract private sector investments. Further, the operations of ZESCO Limited will be streamlined to promote efficiency and sustainability. As part of the diversification agenda, the Government will continue promoting investments in green and clean energy solutions to make the energy sector more resilient and supportive of industrialisation. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 37 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA During the 8NDP period, investments will also be made to upgrade electricity transmission infrastructure in an effort to reduce transmission losses and promote trade in electricity. Some of the key projects to be implemented include the Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya (ZTK) and Zimbabwe-Zambia-Botswana-Namibia (ZIZABONA) interconnectors. The interconnector between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo will also be concluded during the same period. Increased investment in the sector will result in an increase in electricity generation capacity to 4,457 megawatts (MW) by 2026 from 3,307.43 MW in 2021. The percent of renewable energy in the national installed electricity capacity, excluding large hydroelectricity generation, is expected to increase to 10 percent from 3 percent over the same period. This will, in part, be supported by fifteen renewable energy off-grid projects that will be developed by 2026, in addition to the seven developed in 2021. Programmes a) Electricity generation b) Electricity transmission and distribution c) Energy efficiency promotion d) Off-grid energy solutions e) Green and renewable energy

5.4.7 Strategy 7: Enhance Management of Petroleum Products The Government will enhance management of the petroleum sub-sector by investing in infrastructure and implementing reforms aimed at reorganising the procurement and supply processes to ensure efficiency and sustainability. The Government will also promote the blending of petroleum products and biofuels to lower the cost of fuel. The total fuel storage capacity will be increased to at least 550,000 cubic metres by 2026 from 401,348 cubic meters in 2021, with the percentage of biofuel in the national fuel mix expected to increase to 20 percent by 2026. Programmes: a) Petroleum pricing and supply management b) Infrastructure development c) Alternative fuel promotion

5.4.8 Strategy 8: Enhance Management and Productive Use of Water Resources Sustainable investment in water resources development and management will help meet the rising demand and productive use of water, while safeguarding water security. Interventions will comprise ground and surface water resource management, including inter- and intra-basin and transboundary water, as well as water harvesting. 38 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Programmes: a) Transboundary water cooperation and benefit-sharing b) Water harvesting c) Groundwater resources development d) Water resources management e) Inter- and intra-basin water transfer f) Aquifer and water source protection

5.4.9 Strategy 9: Enhance Digital Capacity The integration of digital technologies into business processes will be key to enhancing efficiency and productivity for economic transformation. To advance the digitalisation agenda, the Government will continue with the roll-out of digital communications infrastructure, including the launch of a satellite. This will also ensure that citizens in rural areas are connected to socio-economic services through mobile phones and other electronic devices. Further, the Government will facilitate additional investments in building digital skills, especially among the youth to provide a sound foundation for innovation, including in science and technology. As a result, internet penetration is targeted to increase to 80 percent by 2026 from 52.9 percent in 2020. Programmes: a) ICT infrastructure development b) Digital innovation and entrepreneurship development c) Digital skills enhancement d) Digital services promotion

5.4.10 Strategy 10: Promote Applied Research and Development In pursuit of economic transformation through industrialisation and diversification, the Government will promote science, technology and innovation as well as applied research and development. A complementary strategy will be the promotion of STEM in institutions of learning to build a critical mass of qualified human resource for research and development, by leveraging on digitalisation. The Government will also reform the institutional and coordination arrangements in research and development to enhance investments and the commercialisation of innovations. This will include putting in place measures to incentivise innovation. It is expected that these interventions will increase product development, productivity and contribute to competitiveness of the economy. Programmes: a) Research and development b) Product development and commercialisation c) Intellectual property promotion and protection Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 39 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1. Improve agricultural production and productivity a)    Infrastructure development b) Agricultural mechanisation c) Farmer input support d) Agroforestry and tree crops development e) Agribusiness development f) Irrigation development g) Fisheries and aquaculture development h) Research and development i) Livestock development j) Extension services support k) Early warning and surveillance systems l) Farm block and resettlement schemes development 2. Promote mining of traditional and non-traditional a)    Mineral and petroleum exploration and exploitation minerals b) Mineral tax and mining reforms c) Mineral beneficiation and value-addition d) Artisanal and small-scale mining development 3. Promote value-addition and manufacturing a)    Value chain development b) Market linkages c) Investment promotion d) Multi-facility economic zones and industrial parks e) Skills training 4. Promote tourism diversification a)    Infrastructure development b) Tourism product development c) Tourism promotion and marketing d) Wildlife management 5. Improve transport and logistics a) Aviation development b) Road development and maintenance c) Rail development and maintenance d) Inland water transport development and maintenance e) Inland dry ports development f) Trade centre development g) Warehousing development 6. Enhance generation, transmission and distribution of a) Electricity generation electricity b) Electricity transmission and distribution c) Energy efficiency promotion d) Off-grid energy solutions e) Green and renewable energy 7. Enhance management of petroleum products a) Petroleum pricing and supply management b) Infrastructure development c) Alternative fuel promotion 8. Enhance management and productive use of water a) Transboundary water cooperation and benefit-sharing resources b) Water harvesting c) Groundwater resources development d) Water resources management e) Inter-and intra-basin water transfer f) Aquifer and water source protection 9. Enhance digital capacity a) ICT infrastructure development b) Digital innovation and entrepreneurship development c) Digital skills enhancement d) Digital services promotion 10. Promote applied research and development a) Research and development b) Product development and commercialisation c) Intellectual property promotion and protection 40 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

5.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: ENHANCED CITIZENRY PARTICIPATION IN THE ECONOMY Citizens’ participation in economic activity is important to achieve economic transformation and job creation. However, citizen participation has been relatively low as reflected by the few major locally-owned enterprises and businesses. Therefore, the Government will provide incentives for Zambians, including those living in the diaspora, to participate in the economy. Further, the Government will promote decent work, enterprise development and technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills training while simultaneously ensuring that the 2.9 million or 30.6 percent financially excluded adult population is reduced.

5.5.1 Strategy 1: Promote local and Diaspora Participation in the Economy To enhance the participation of Zambians in the economy, there is need to implement interventions that promote their effective and inclusive participation in job and wealth creation. This will be done through encouraging local investments by reserving particular businesses for Zambians, improving access to low- cost finance, targeting citizens for preferential procurements and formalising the informal sector. The Government will also strengthen the implementation of the Diaspora Policy to promote and facilitate increased remittances and investment. This will be done by addressing the high cost of remittances, providing comprehensive information on available opportunities in Zambia, and by providing an effective engagement framework that would allow Zambians living abroad to actively participate in national development. These interventions will also have trickle-down effects on the employment and empowerment of the youth in all provinces, districts, constituencies and wards. Programmes: a) Reservation scheme b) Preferential procurement c) Diaspora investment promotion d) Women, youth and persons with disabilities empowerment e) Informal sector formalisation

5.5.2 Strategy 2: Promote Enterprise Development Enterprise development is key for economic transformation and job creation. The Government will provide an enabling environment for formation of businesses and cooperatives, facilitation of mentorship and business services and promotion of access to domestic and external markets. Special focus will be given to the provision of access to finance for MSMEs and cooperatives. Further, the Government will operationalise industrial yards. These interventions are aimed at contributing to decent job and wealth creation especially for the youth and women. Programmes: a) Small and medium-scale enterprises development b) Cooperatives development c) Business development services provision d) Enterprise development initiative e) Industrial yards Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 41 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

5.5.3 Strategy 3: Promote Technical, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Skills To support local participation in the economy, the Government will scale-up the provision of technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills to support growth of enterprises. Further, measures will be put in place to incentivise the private sector in facilitating internships, mentorships and apprenticeships. The Government will also increase the disbursement of resources to support women, the youth and persons with disabilities with skills development at constituency and ward levels. Programmes: a) TEVET skills development b) Up-skilling and re-skilling c) Mentorship and apprenticeship

5.5.4 Strategy 4: Promote Financial Inclusion Increased access to, and usage of a broad range of quality and affordable financial services, particularly by women, the youth, PWDs and the rural-based population will be pursued in the Plan period. This will include MSMEs which are key in ensuring the participation of citizens in the economy. To this end, the Government will provide an enabling environment to encourage financial service providers to develop innovative and customer-centric products, including products that will attract low income earners to invest in capital markets. The enabling environment, coupled with the digital transformation agenda espoused in the Plan, will lead to an increase in the provision of digital, mobile and agency banking services to underserved populations. Programmes: a) Financial education b) Rural finance c) Capital markets development Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1. Promote local and diaspora participation in the economy a) Reservation scheme b) Preferential procurement c) Diaspora investment promotion d) Women, youth and persons with disabilities empowerment e) Informal sector formalisation 2. Promote enterprise development a) Small and medium-scale enterprises development b) Cooperatives development c) Business development services provision d) Enterprise development initiative e) Industrial yards 3. Promote technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills a) TEVET skills development b) Up-skilling and re-skilling c) Mentorship and apprenticeship 4. Promote financial inclusion a) Financial education b) Rural finance c) Capital markets development 42 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

5.6. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: A COMPETITIVE PRIVATE SECTOR A competitive private sector is needed to change the economic fortunes of the country to achieve socio- economic transformation for improved livelihoods. In this regard, the Government will promote product quality and competition as well as facilitate increased domestic and international trade, including access to finance for production and exports. The Government will also provide a predictable and favourable policy and regulatory environment, including streamlining regulatory and licensing procedures. Further, the Government will establish a holistic framework for public-private sector engagement.

5.6.1 Strategy 1: Promote quality and productivity To promote the competitiveness of Zambian products in local and international markets, the uptake of standards and quality assurance as well as adherence to sanitary and phytosanitary requirements will be enhanced and relevant institutions will be strengthened. Additionally, the Government will promote certification of organic products to enhance their competitiveness in the local and international markets. Furthermore, the Government will strengthen measures for fair competition in the domestic market and enhance consumer welfare to spur innovations and improve the quality of goods and services. Productivity improvement will also be promoted through the implementation of programmes such as Kaizen, which is proven to promote both quality and productivity. In addition, the Government will strengthen the enforcement of labour laws to enhance compliance and decent work. Decent Work which is important for ensuring industrial harmony and improved productivity. Decent work entails Promoting jobs and enterprise, guaranteeing rights at work, extending social protection and promoting social dialogue with gender as a cross-cutting theme. Decent work takes the centre stage in poverty and vulnerability reduction as well as enhancing human development. Decent work is crucial to advancing the entire sustainable development agenda The Decent work Country Programme addresses pertinent issues in the employment and labour sector and ensures adherence to the labour rights, creation of more and better employment opportunities and strengthened social protection systems in the country. Furthermore, the Programme contributes to the attainment of a just society and conducive atmosphere for the prospective job seekers, employers and workers. Programmes: a) Product standardisation and quality assurance b) Sanitary and phytosanitary compliance support c) Fair competition promotion d) Quality and productivity promotion e) Decent work promotion Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 43 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

5.6.2 Strategy 2: Facilitate Increased Domestic and International Trade Facilitating access to domestic and international trade is important for private sector competitiveness. In this regard, the Government will implement measures to address trade-related bottlenecks that impede private sector competitiveness. Measures that will be taken will include supporting small and medium-size enterprises’ production lines by facilitating linkages with larger local and regional value chains. To increase trade opportunities, the Government will implement trade facilitation measures, and trade promotion and facilitate the provision of market information services for both the domestic and foreign markets. The Government will also digitise processes and regulatory requirements concerning trade facilitation and market information services. Programmes: a) Coordinated border management b) Market information services c) Commodity exchange platform d) Inter-country trade centre establishment e) International cooperation and economic diplomacy f) Business regulatory environment

5.6.3 Strategy 3: Improve Access to Finance for Production and Exports Concerted efforts will be made to ease access to affordable finance, especially for MSMEs. This will include export trade finance, third party credit risk mitigation and enhancing development of capital markets to provide long-term finance. The private sector will play a key role in the development and provision of financial products to support production and trade. The Government will also strengthen the alternative investment market on the Lusaka Stock Exchange as a vehicle through which MSMEs can access long-term financing. Further, the Government will promote credit guarantee schemes. Programmes: a) Credit guarantee scheme b) Capital markets development c) Impact capital investment d) Alternative finance promotion e) Trade finance facilitation f) Public-private sector joint venture g) Local-foreign joint venture and partnership 44 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1. Promote productivity and product quality a) Product standardisation and quality assurance b) Sanitary and phytosanitary compliance support c) Fair competition promotion d) Quality and productivity promotion e) Decent work promotion 2. Facilitate increased domestic and international trade a)    Coordinated border management b) Market information services c) Commodity exchange platform d) Inter-country trade centre establishment e) International cooperation and economic diplomacy f) Business regulatory environment 3. Improve access to finance for production and exports a) Credit guarantee scheme b) Capital markets development c) Impact capital investment d) Alternative finance promotion e) Trade finance facilitation f) Public-private sector joint venture g) Local-foreign joint venture and partnership Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 45 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

6.0 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 2: HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

6.1. OVERVIEW Human and social development is fundamental to inclusive development and is a catalytic ingredient to the transformation of the country. This includes addressing the vicious cycles of poverty, inequality and vulnerability. It also entails providing equal opportunities for every citizen to develop to their full potential and effectively contribute to the development of the country. This strategic development area, therefore, addresses the need to develop human capacities, through investments and interventions in education and skills development; health and nutrition; and water and sanitation. In addition, it aims at reducing poverty, inequality and vulnerability.

6.2. CURRENT SITUATION The Government remains committed to the goal of achieving universal access to education as espoused by the Vision 2030 and the SDGs. In this regard, the country has made some advances in respect of gender parity and pupil-teacher ratio. At primary school level, gender parity stood at 1.03 in 2020 compared to 1.00 in 2017. Thus, in 2020, for every 100 boys enrolled in primary school, 103 girls were enrolled compared to 100 in 2017. At secondary school level, gender parity stood at 0.94 in 2020 compared to 0.90 in 2017 implying that for every 100 boys enrolled in secondary school in 2020, there were 94 girls enrolled compared to 90 in 2017. The pupil-teacher ratio at both primary and secondary school level also registered improvements. At primary school level, the pupil-teacher ratio was 56.5 pupils per teacher in 2020 from 58.5 pupils per teacher in 2017, against the internationally acceptable threshold of 40 pupils per teacher. The pupil-teacher ratio, at secondary school level, in 2020 was 26.1 pupils per teacher compared to 32.3 pupils per teacher in 2017. In contrast to the above progress, however, the net enrolment rate for primary schools stood at 81.8 percent in 2020 as compared to 87.9 percent in 2017. Equally for secondary schools, the net enrolment stood at 37.6 percent in 2020 compared to 42.9 percent in 2017. As of 2020, the Government was the largest provider of early childhood education (ECE) services and accounted for 62.2 percent of the total enrolment. ECE enrolments increased from 47,317 pupils in 2011 to 258,616 pupils in 2020. However, the ratio of teachers and caregivers was recorded at 1 to 80 pupils. Also the enrolment rate was low at only 11.2 percent of the total target population, well below the target of achieving universal access to ECE. Under skills development, progress was made in increasing access to vocational and skills training through the construction of training facilities in selected rural districts. Further, the Government introduced the TEVET bursary scheme to encourage and increase the number of youths taking up skills training, especially females and PWDs for whom 30 percent and 10 percent, respectively, are reserved. However, more needs to be done to enhance access to TEVET in order to reduce the skills gap in the technical workforce, as indicated by the 2020 National Skills Survey Report. The industries exhibiting high numbers of skills gaps include wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, manufacturing, accommodation and food services, education, agriculture, forestry and fishing, among others. Further, Zambia’s TEVET system requires an improvement in the quality of training offered. For instance, in 2021, 62.3 percent of the registered TEVET institutions were in the grade 46 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 three category, which is the lowest level in the quality grading system; 29.9 percent of the institutions were in grade two; while only 7.8 percent were in grade one. The foregoing indicates the need to enhance access and quality of technical and vocational training in the country. At university level, while more universities have been established, there is a weak regulatory framework which has led to the compromise in the quality of university education. With the establishment of the Higher Education Authority, it is anticipated that the quality of tertiary education will improve. There is also inadequate qualified manpower to teach at tertiary level. With regards to the health sector, the country has made strides in improving the health status of citizens. The pregnancy-related mortality reduced from 398 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2013/14 to 278 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2018, while the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was recorded at 252 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2018, which was a reduction from 398 in 2014. Similarly, under-five mortality rates reduced from 75 in 2014 to 61 per 1,000 live births in 2018. Infant mortality rate reduced from 45 in 2014 to 42 per 1,000 live births in 2018 while the child mortality rate reduced from 31 in 2014 to 19 per 1,000 live births in 2018. Despite these improvements, the mortality rates remain high. The country currently experiences a high disease burden, largely attributed to the high prevalence and incidence of infectious diseases and the increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The top five causes of mortality include malaria, anaemia, cardio-vascular diseases, pneumonia and tuberculosis (TB). For instance, in 2021, Zambia recorded a total of 6,262,775 cases and 1,480 deaths due to malaria, while an estimated 59,000 people had TB. Out of these estimated number of people with TB, 50,717 were detected and commenced on anti-TB treatment. The TFR remains high at 4.7 children per woman as at 2018. Teenage pregnancies are also high at 29.0 percent mostly due to high levels of child marriages, early sexual debut, and inadequate information on reproductive health. This has constrained women’s participation in the economy, further leading to undesirable economic and social outcomes. Progress has been made in enhancing early childhood development and nutrition in order to mitigate the negative effects of poor nutrition on cognitive development, physical work capacity, health status and earnings in adulthood. The 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) showed slight improvements in nutrition indicators between 2013/14 and 2018, with stunting moving from 40 percent to 35 percent, wasting from 6 percent to 4 percent and underweight births from 15 percent to 12 percent. The improvement has been on account of nutrition programmes such as the first 1,000 critical days from conception, nurturing care for early childhood development, early childhood education, child immunisation and child-care and protection services. In water and sanitation, progress has been made in increasing access to clean and safe drinking water and adequate sanitation services. According to the 2018 ZDHS, the proportion of households with access to clean and safe drinking water at national level increased to 72.5 percent from 64.5 percent in 2014. For urban and rural areas, the proportion of households accessing clean water increased to 93 percent and 58 percent from 89.5 percent and 46.6 percent, respectively, in the same period. The proportion of households with access to sanitation increased to 54.4 percent in 2018 from 25.4 percent in 2014. In urban areas, access to basic sanitation increased to 77.7 percent in 2018 from 35 percent in 2014, while in rural areas access increased to 37.2 percent from 18.5 percent. This progress notwithstanding, strategic interventions are required to narrow the inequalities between urban and rural areas. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 47 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA The prevalence of poverty levels in the country is progressively reducing. Total poverty reduced to 54.4 percent in 2015 from 62.8 percent in 2006. Despite the reduction in total poverty levels, extreme poverty still remained significantly high at 40.8 percent in 2015. In rural areas, poverty was higher at 76.6 percent compared to 23.4 percent in urban areas. The Multidimensional Poverty Index also improved from 50 percent in 2014 to 44 percent in 2018. The reduction in poverty levels has in part been driven by the expansion of social protection programmes such as the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) programme and empowerment programmes that have been implemented across the country, especially in the rural areas. With regard to child protection, in 2018, 34 percent of girls and 40 percent of boys had experienced physical violence, while 51.3 percent of girls and 49 percent of boys had witnessed physical violence. In 2020 an estimated 20 percent of girls and 10 percent of boys reported sexual abuse prior to the age of 18.

6.3 CONSTRAINTS The attainment of human development is constrained by various factors with the inadequacy of infrastructure and human resources being the major issues. For education and skills development, the system is also characterised by limited furniture such as desks, lack of educational materials and inadequate ICT equipment to support learning. At early childhood education (ECE) level, factors contributing to poor quality of education include lack of appropriate facilities and teaching aids to allow for play and mental stimulation for early childhood learners, including those with special needs at all levels. The level of deprivation is more pronounced in rural and remote areas, thus most children enter primary school with no ECE experience. This delays their ability to acquire literacy and numeracy skills. The lack of appropriate facilities and teaching aids is also evident at primary, secondary, and tertiary education levels. The constraints in the health sector include inadequate and obsolete medical equipment and supplies; long distances to health centres and inadequate transport facilities; poor health-seeking behaviour; and low coverage of national health insurance. A further constraint relates to inadequate dietary diversity to promote the health and nutrition status of the people. In water and sanitation, the key constraint relates to inadequate and dilapidated infrastructure, especially in rural areas. Others include the increase in unplanned settlements, weak management and monitoring of water resources and unregulated access to water sources. Regarding social protection, implementation challenges included low integration of social protection programmes, lack of an integrated automated Social Protection Management Information System, poor targeting of beneficiaries and intermittent release of funds to cash transfer beneficiaries. Further, the non- enactment of appropriate legislation on matters such as social protection and child protection matters adversely affected implementation of effective interventions. The 8NDP outlines strategies and programmes to address the constraints under this strategic development area.

6.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED EDUCATION AND SKILLS DEVELOPMENT To improve education and skills development, the Government will focus on expanding access and 48 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 improving quality of early childhood, primary and secondary education as well as technical education, vocational and entrepreneurship training and higher education. The strategies outlined below will, therefore, be implemented.

6.4.1 Strategy 1: Enhance access to Quality, Equitable and Inclusive Education In the Plan period, the Government will ensure that all learners have access to equitable and inclusive quality education that prepares them to pursue higher education. This will be done through the recruitment and placement of more teachers in needy areas, as well as provision of free education from early childhood to secondary school and provision of bursaries, using a decentralised approach. Additionally, establishment and construction of more ECE centres, secondary schools and other school infrastructure, including completion of incomplete classroom structures, and accommodation for teachers, especially in rural areas, will be undertaken. The delivery of education using ICT platforms will also be promoted. To ensure that schools are adequately equipped to deliver quality and relevant education, focus will be on enhancing the supply of educational requisites, including the procurement of school desks and learning materials. Further, the education curriculum will be reviewed to ensure that it provides life-relevant knowledge and skills and promotes the application of national values and principles. This will include building the skills of learners to increase their uptake of science and technology. The objective is, from an early age, to increase leaners’ interest in science and technology to facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship. At secondary school level, the two-tier education system will be promoted to provide TEVET skills to learners. This will be supported by a skills development fund. Further, programmes will be implemented to ensure provision of education to Learners with Special Educational Needs (LSEN) at all levels of the education system so as not to leave anyone behind. In addition, to promote inclusive lifelong learning, adult literacy will be supported. Additionally, to ensure a lifecycle approach to education, priority will be given to nurturing and supporting early childhood development, and facilitating a conducive learning environment for early development of literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skills. The Government will continue supporting initiatives to improve the physical and cognitive health outcomes for children aged between 0 and 6 years, especially during the first 1,000 days of life, which are the critical years for a child’s cognitive and healthy long-term development, productivity, and social cohesion. Further, the Government will continue implementing initiatives aimed at keeping girls in school as well as enhancing readmission of school drop-outs, including adult learners. With the above measures, the net enrolment rate is expected to increase to 100 percent by 2026 from 81.8 percent in 2020 for primary schools, while the rate for secondary schools is targeted to increase to 60 percent from 37.6 percent. The pupil-teacher ratio is targeted to reduce from 56.5 pupils per teacher in 2020 to 45 pupils per teacher in 2026, for primary schools. For secondary schools, the goal is to attain the pupil- teacher ratio of less than 20 pupils to a teacher from the 26.1 pupils to 1 teacher in 2020 (global average is 18 pupils to 1 teacher). Adult literacy for the population aged 15-49 years is expected to increase to 85 and 90 percent by 2026 from 66.4 and 81.8 percent in 2020, for women and men, respectively. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 49 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Programmes: a) Early childhood education b) Primary education c) Inclusive education (LSEN) d) Adult literacy e) Secondary education f) Curriculum review g) Human resource development h) Infrastructure development i) ICT promotion j) STEM k) Menstrual hygiene promotion

6.4.2 Strategy 2: Improve Technical, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Skills To improve vocational, technical and entrepreneurship skills, the main focus will be on strengthening the regulatory and quality assurance frameworks that will also cover vocational skills training development in the private sector. Further, there will be regular upgrading of training equipment and expansion of training facilities. In addition, the qualifications for TEVET skills will be upgraded to allow for progression. To ensure that TEVET is relevant to industry, the curriculum will regularly be reviewed to ensure that it responds to the demands of industry. Additionally, learning pathways such as work-based learning, in particular internship and apprenticeship, will be promoted. The Government will also ensure sustainable financing of the TEVET system. Further, the Government will scale-up and decentralise the skills development bursary scheme to the local level. This will enhance the targeting of beneficiaries as they will be identified by communities and will improve access to skills training by vulnerable youths. By the end of the Plan period, the quality of TEVET services will be improved. This improvement will mainly be achieved through the upgrading of TEVET institutions with at least 40 percent of institutions classified as grade one in 2026 from 7.8 percent in 2020. The skills gap in the different industries will also be reduced. Programmes: a) TEVET b) Curriculum review c) Research and development d) Internship and apprenticeship e) Digital skills development f) Human resource development g) Infrastructure development 50 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

6.4.3 Strategy 3: Increase access to higher education To increase access to public universities and other higher learning institutions, the Government will reform the bursary and student loan system so that students who cannot afford to pay fees are supported. To enhance the development of an innovative society, the bursaries and student loans will, in addition, be steered towards STEM. Investments will also be made in infrastructure and education-industry linkages to ensure that graduates have relevant and employable skills. The Government will further continue to create an enabling environment for the private sector to thrive in the delivery of higher education. Programmes: a) Infrastructure development b) Human resource development c) Curriculum development d) Private sector participation promotion

6.4.4 Strategy 4: Enhance science, technology and innovation To promote science, technology and innovation, investment for research and development will be enhanced, including in institutions of higher learning. This will be done through utilisation of various funds such as the Strategic Research Fund and the Science, Technology and Innovation Youth Fund. Further, partnerships between higher learning institutions and state and non-state actors will be promoted to enhance the uptake of research. STEM education that promotes research, innovation, productivity and competitiveness for national and international demands will be promoted. The development and application of digital skills to support the country’s transformation to a digital economy will also be promoted. Programmes: a) STEM b) Research and development c) Curriculum development d) Industry linkages promotion e) Infrastructure development f) Digital skills development g) Partnership promotion Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 51 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1. Enhance access to quality, equitable and inclusive education a) Early childhood education b) Primary education c) Inclusive education d) Adult literacy e) Secondary education f) Curriculum review g) Human resource development h) Infrastructure development i) ICT promotion j) STEM k) Menstrual hygiene promotion 2. Improve technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills a) TEVET b) Curriculum review c) Research and development d) Internship and apprenticeship e) Digital skills development f) Human resource development g) Infrastructure development 3. Increased access to higher education a) Infrastructure development b) Human resource development c) Curriculum development d) Private sector participation promotion 4. Enhance science, technology, and innovation a) STEM b) Research and development c) Curriculum development d) Industry linkages promotion e) Infrastructure development f) Digital skills development g) Partnership promotion.

6.5 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED HEALTH, FOOD AND NUTRITION To improve health and nutrition, the Government will focus on strengthening public health, increasing access to quality health care, promoting the participation of non-state actors in health care delivery, strengthening integrated health systems and enhancing food security and nutrition.

6.5.1 Strategy 1: Strengthen Public Health In the 8NDP period, the Government will devolve the provision of district health services to the sub-national level to enhance decision-making for effective service delivery. This will strengthen public health for the prevention and control of infectious diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis (TB) and HIV and AIDS, as well as NCDs. Further, interventions will be strengthened for maternal health care, child survival, family planning, mental health care, epidemic preparedness and control as well as health security and surveillance. The target is to reduce TB incidence and mortality rate by at least 50 percent and 75 percent, respectively, by 2026. With regard to malaria, the target is to reduce incidence and mortality from 340 cases per 1,000 persons and 8 per 100,000 persons in 2020 to 200.8 per 1,000 and 4.7 per 100,000 in 2026, respectively. The Government, further targets to reduce deaths associated with NCDs to 16 percent by 2026 from 29 percent in 2016. 52 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Programmes: a) Disease prevention and control b) Health education promotion c) Maternal healthcare d) Child survival development e) Family planning promotion f) Epidemic preparedness and control g) Mental health and substance abuse management h) Health security and surveillance

6.5.2 Strategy 2: Increase Access to Quality Health Care During the Plan period, interventions will be aimed at increasing access to quality health care by scaling up recruitment of health personnel to reduce the health personnel to population ratio, and ensuring availability of medicines and medical supplies. In addition, the development of climate resilient health infrastructure, as well as the equipping of health facilities, will be prioritised. Further, the national health insurance scheme will be rolled-out to include the informal sector. The Government will leverage on the national health insurance scheme to facilitate wider health care delivery by bringing on board more private sector providers. Measures will also be put in place to facilitate partnerships with the private sector to create centres of specialisation in the provision of health services. With these interventions it is expected that the client to health personnel ratio will reduce as follows: 3,500 persons per doctor in 2026 from 6,750 in 2020; 3,000 persons per clinical officer from 4,600; and 500 persons per nurse/midwife from 750. It is also expected that the availability of essential drugs and medical supplies will increase to at least 90 percent fill rates by 2026 from 40 percent in 2020. In addition, the proportion of hospitals with fully functional recommended equipment will improve to 85 percent by 2026 from 20 percent in 2020. Further, the national health insurance scheme will target to achieve universal coverage by 2026, from the 25 percent coverage recorded in 2021. Programmes: a) Infrastructure development b) Medicines and medical supply chain management c) Equipment and transport procurement and maintenance d) Health insurance promotion e) Mobile health services f) Specialised health services g) Human resource development

6.5.3 Strategy 3: Enhance Food Security and Nutrition To enhance the nutrition status of Zambians, the Government will endeavour to eliminate all forms of malnutrition by supporting appropriate feeding practices for school children and adolescents, promoting micronutrients fortification and supplementation, and scaling-up nutrition programmes. The Government will further strengthen research in nutrition and food systems to facilitate formulation of appropriate interventions. Other interventions will focus on strengthening the institutional framework for coordination Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 53 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA of national nutrition and sustainable food systems. The Food and Nutrition Act No. 3 of 2020 will be fully operationalised to enhance the implementation of the multi-sectoral response to food security and nutrition. With these interventions, it is expected that in the under-five population, underweight prevalence will reduce to 8 percent by 2026 from 12 percent in 2018, with wasting targeted to reduce to 3 percent from 4 percent during the same period. Stunting is also expected to reduce from 35 percent to 25 percent. Programmes: a) Scaling-up nutrition b) Supplementary school feeding c) Nutrition institutional governance strengthening d) Sustainable food systems promotion e) Supplementation and micro-nutrients fortification f) Research and development g) Institutional feeding

6.5.4 Strategy 4: Strengthen integrated health information system During the Plan period, the Government will further strengthen the integrated health information system in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the health sector. Among the programmes to be implemented will include health processes automation, strengthening integrated health care financing, integration of health information system and upscaling and automation of civil registration and vital statistics. Programmes: a) Integrated health care financing b) Health information management system integration c) Civil registration and vital statistics automation 54 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1.     Strengthen public health a) Disease prevention and control b) Health education promotion c) Maternal healthcare d) Child survival development e) Family planning promotion f) Epidemic preparedness and control g) Mental health and substance abuse management h) Health security and surveillance 2.     Increase access to quality health care a) Infrastructure development b) Medicines and medical supply chain management c) Equipment and transport procurement and maintenance d) Health insurance promotion e) Mobile health services f) Specialised health services g) Human resource development 3.       Enhance food security and nutrition a) Scaling-up nutrition b) Supplementary school feeding c) Nutrition institutional governance strengthening d) Sustainable food systems promotion e) Supplementation and micro-nutrients fortification f) Research and development g) Institutional feeding 4. Strengthen integrated health information systems a) Integrated health care financing b) Health information management system integration c) Civil registration and vital statistics automation

6.6. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: IMPROVED WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION To improve access to clean and safe water supply and improved sanitation, the Government will promote investment in the water and sanitation sectors. The Government will, among other measures, establish a sustainable financing mechanism for the sector that will facilitate mobilisation of local and international financing for water supply and sanitation programmes, including through public-private partnerships. Further, the enhanced allocation of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) will assist in accelerating investment in the water and sanitation sector. To this end, constituencies and wards will be supported in identifying areas of need for water supply and sanitation services as well as plan for the provision of such services to reduce developmental inequalities.

6.6.1 Strategy 1: Improve access to clean and safe water supply In the Plan period, the Government will prioritise the provision of clean and safe water across the country, especially in districts, constituencies and wards where there have been water deficiencies. Key measures to be implemented will include development and maintenance of water supply infrastructure, water quality monitoring and protection of aquifers and other water sources. The implementation of these measures is expected to lead to an increase in access to clean and safe water to 67 percent by 2026 from 58 percent in 2018 for rural areas and to 98 percent by 2026 from 91.8 percent in 2018 for urban areas. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 55 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Programmes: a) Infrastructure development and maintenance b) Water quality monitoring

6.6.2 Strategy 2: Improve Sanitation Services To improve sanitation services across the country, the Government will strengthen sewerage and solid waste management by enhancing financing to address the constraint of inadequate infrastructure and promoting sustainable sanitation practices, including personal hygiene promotion and solid waste management, among others. With these interventions, the proportion of households with access to improved sanitation is expected to improve from 37.2 percent and 77.7 percent in 2018 to 55 percent and 90 percent in 2026 in rural and urban areas, respectively. Programmes: a) Infrastructure development and maintenance b) Solid waste management c) Sanitation and hygiene promotion d) Investment promotion Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1.    Improve access to clean and safe water supply a) infrastructure development and maintenance b) Water quality monitoring 2.     Improve Sanitation Services a) Infrastructure development and maintenance b) Solid waste management c) Sanitation and hygiene promotion d) investment promotion

6.7 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 4: REDUCED POVERTY, VULNERABILITY AND INEQUALITY To reduce poverty, vulnerability and inequality, the Government will focus on improving coordination of social protection programmes and enhancing the welfare and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people. Measures will include mitigating violence against women and children, extending social security coverage and enhancing multi-sectoral disaster management.

6.7.1 Strategy 1: Improve Social Protection Programmes The Government will continue to harmonise and strengthen social protection delivery systems at district and community levels in order to improve efficiency in the delivery of social protection programmes and address the multiple causes of poverty and vulnerability. The Government will review and harmonise all social protection-related legislation and domesticate international and regional social protection agreements. 56 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Further, to assist in planning, policy formulation and eliminate duplication in social protection programmes, the Zambia Integrated Social Protection Information System will be fully utilised. The pensions system will also be reformed to inter alia, increase coverage, enhance its effectiveness as a social safety net and make it financially sustainable. A key measure will be the creation of an occupational pension specifically for public sector employees. Programmes: a) Social protection integration b) Social protection reforms c) Social security coverage expansion

6.7.2 Strategy 2: Enhance Welfare and Livelihoods of Poor and Vulnerable People The Government will continue to implement programmes aimed at improving the welfare and livelihoods of people, especially the poor and vulnerable in society, including the aged and PWDs. The number of beneficiaries and the level of support offered through interventions such as SCT, food security pack and the keeping girls in school programme will be scaled-up. Further, the Government will link the SCT to other interventions and services through the “Cash Plus” Agenda. This will allow SCT beneficiaries to access additional support through programmes such as the food security pack, livelihood schemes and other public services including nutrition and early childhood support, primary and secondary education and skills development. The aim is to enable a more integrated approach to breaking the intergenerational cycle of poverty. In addition, the targeting and payment systems for social protection programmes including the SCT will also be strengthened. Livelihood and empowerment schemes will be decentralised to the community level to ensure provision of resources directly to constituencies and wards, with particular focus on women and the youth. This will enhance targeting of interventions to the most vulnerable communities and households. Through empowerment schemes, local businesses and service providers will also be supported with finances and market linkages, thereby stimulating the local economy. Resettlement schemes will also be used as a means of facilitating sustained empowerment of the poor and vulnerable people such as the unemployed, retired, internally displaced and PWDs. To promote the wellbeing of juveniles and reduce delinquency, Government will, among other measures, promote the development of sports, arts and culture in communities. In addition, the Government will prioritise interventions to tackle gender-based violence, teenage pregnancies, child abuse and violence against the vulnerable such as the aged, PWDs and mentally challenged persons. Concerted efforts will be made towards child protection and ending child marriages. The Government will also implement measures to rehabilitate and reintegrate street children. In implementing these interventions, the Government will sensitise beneficiaries in order to inculcate national values and principles. Further, disability services will be provided to promote access and participation of PWDs including through the provision of PWD-friendly infrastructure across all sectors. Support towards functional literacy will be scaled-up and mainstreamed in these interventions. The interventions highlighted above will contribute to the reduction of poverty levels to 45 percent by 2026 from 54.4 percent in 2015. Multidimensional poverty is targeted to reduce to 38 percent by 2026 from 44 percent in 2018. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 57 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Programmes: a) Social Cash Transfer b) Livelihood and empowerment schemes decentralisation c) Public Welfare Assistance Scheme d) Disability services e) Sports, culture and arts development f) Resettlement schemes development g) Self-help initiatives h) Food security support i) Gender-based violence elimination j) Child protection k) Migration services

6.7.3 Strategy 3: Reduce Developmental Inequalities In an effort to reduce developmental disparities, the Government will implement interventions to address gender, income and spatial inequalities. Interventions to promote gender equality will address issues related to the participation of women in decision-making positions at all levels of governance and sustaining and improving gender parity in education. To address income inequality, livelihood and empowerment programmes will be enhanced in order to positively impact on incomes, while infrastructure development will, among others, be undertaken in different sectors to address spatial inequality. This will be targeted at accelerating implementation of various interventions including the rural electrification programme, the development and maintenance of rural access roads and enhancement of access to other basic services, such as health and education. Other measures that will be implemented in the Plan period, such as decentralisation and enforcement of the rule of law will also contribute to reducing developmental inequalities. With these interventions, a reduction in income inequality is expected, with the Gini coefficient targeted to decrease to at least 0.54 in 2026 from 0.69 in 2015. Programmes: a) Gender equality b) Integrated development planning c) Rural roads connectivity d) Rural industrialisation e) Life skills development and resilience building f) Rural electrification g) Youth entrepreneurship and vocational skills training

6.7.4 Strategy 4: Increase Access to Decent and Affordable Housing To increase access to decent and affordable housing for all, the Government will facilitate the provision of affordable housing finance, provide incentives for private sector participation and promote investments in research on alternative building materials and technologies. Consequently, during the Plan period, the housing deficit is expected to reduce from 1,539,000 in 2021 to 1,378,000 housing units in 2026. 58 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Programmes: a) Housing sector reforms b) Public and social housing c) Settlement improvement d) Housing finance e) Research and development

6.7.5 Strategy 5: Reduce Vulnerability Associated with HIV and AIDS The Government’s strategy in the 8NDP period will be to reduce the national HIV and AIDS incidence and prevalence. Accordingly, the Government will endeavour to implement programmes that will accelerate HIV testing and treatment to ensure viral load suppression, eliminate stigma and discrimination and increase domestic investments and resource mobilisation towards HIV and AIDS. This commitment aims at achieving the 95-95-95 treatment targets by 2026. This means that 95 percent of people living with HIV will know their status, 95 percent of people tested positive for HIV will have access to treatment services and 95 percent of people on antiretroviral treatment will achieve HIV viral load suppression. Programmes: a) HIV testing and treatment b) Stigma and discrimination reduction c) HIV and AIDS financing Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1.     IImprove social protection programmes a) Social protection integration b) Social protection reforms c) Social security coverage expansion 2.     Enhance welfare and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people a) Social Cash Transfer b) Livelihood and empowerment schemes decentralisation c) Public Welfare Assistance Scheme d) Disability services e) Sports, culture and arts development f) Resettlement schemes development g) Self-help initiatives h) Food security support i) Gender-based violence elimination j) Child protection k) Migration services 3.     Reduce developmental inequalities a) Gender equality b) Integrated development planning c) Rural roads connectivity d) Rural industrialisation e) Life skills development and resilience building f) Rural electrification g) Youth entrepreneurship and vocational skills training 4.    Increase access to decent and affordable housing a) Housing sector reforms b) Public and social housing c) Settlement improvement d) Housing finance e) Research and development 5.     Reduce vulnerability associated with HIV and AIDS a) HIV testing and treatment b) Stigma and discrimination reduction c) HIV and AIDS financing Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 59 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 7. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 3: ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

7.1 OVERVIEW Zambia’s vision of attaining a prosperous middle-income status by 2030 emphasises development that is anchored on sustainable environment, ecosystems and natural resource management principles. This means attainment of socio-economic development which meets the needs of the current generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This is also in line with the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development, the AU Agenda 2063 and the RISDP under SADC.

7.2 CURRENT SITUATION Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources in Zambia is evidenced through deforestation and forest degradation, land degradation, encroachment of protected areas, unsustainable fishing, loss of biodiversity, unsustainable production and consumption patterns, and uncontrolled human settlements, among others. Land cover maps for the years 2000 to 2015 show that human activities such as expansion of settlements and land under agriculture reduced forest cover from 47.05 million hectares in 2000 to 45.94 million hectares in 2015. As of 2018, estimates indicate that the country has been losing in excess of 172,000 hectares of forest cover per annum. In addition, the country’s wetlands and aquifers have come under severe pressure from development as the demand for housing and water increases. The country has also suffered from biodiversity loss due to mining operations, agricultural expansion, illegal exploitation of forest, fisheries and wildlife resources as well as the advent of invasive species of plants and organisms. Additionally, the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources and poor environmental management have contributed to increased incidences of adverse climate change effects such as droughts, floods and extreme temperatures. The impacts of these effects have primarily affected the agriculture, energy and water sectors. This has resulted in decreased hydroelectricity generation capacity, food insecurity and limited access to clean drinking water for people and animals. Further, the 2020 University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index ranked Zambia as the 41st most vulnerable country to the impacts of climate change out of 182 countries. Climate change and variability have led to adverse effects such as droughts, floods and extreme temperatures on key sectors including energy, agriculture and water. Zambia remains a net carbon sink; the net sink status reduced to -16,815.2 gigagrams (Gg) carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent in 2010 from -57,124.0 Gg of CO2 equivalent estimated in 1994. This was on account of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from different sectors of the economy increasing by 47 percent from 86,063 Gg in 1994 to 126,758 Gg in 2016. Further, Zambia’s natural environment and ecosystems have come under threat because of poor environmental management practices including air, water and land pollution, as well as poor sanitation and waste management. The mining and manufacturing industries as well as the rising motor vehicle population are the major sources of air pollution as they discharge harmful gases and dust particles into the atmosphere, sometimes beyond the statutory limits. Additionally, water pollution is widespread with the manufacturing, mining, inefficient sewage treatment facilities and agriculture being the major polluters of both surface and groundwater, thereby limiting access to clean and safe water. Zambia is also facing increasing risks from 60 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 poor chemical and solid waste management from sources such as electrical and electronic waste (e-waste) as well as other hazardous waste, which may contain persistent organic pollutants. The environment has also been adversely affected by poor solid waste management which is a threat to water bodies and animals. Therefore, during the Plan period, the Government will enhance mitigation and adaptation to climate change while promoting sustainable management of the environment, ecosystems and natural resources to promote green growth and environmental sustainability. Environmental education and awareness will be implemented alongside all interventions in this strategic development area.

7.3 CONSTRAINTS The constraints to environmental sustainability include undiversified sources of income for sustainable livelihoods, unsustainable agricultural practices and use of environmental products. Other constraints include inadequate education and community awareness on the environment and the value of natural resources, as well as inadequate legal and institutional frameworks and capacities for implementation of actions on environmental protection. Additionally, there are low levels of technical and technological capacities and funding limitations for implementation of more ambitious climate change actions. There is also low integration of climate change in key sectors at the national and sub-national levels, and insufficient hydrometeorological infrastructure and climate information services, as well as early warning systems for more efficient disaster and climate risk preparedness, prevention, response and recovery. Further, there is limited participation of communities in the management of natural resources. Systems for quantification and valuation of natural resources to inform policy decisions are also inadequate, compounded by the uncoordinated implementation of natural resource management programmes. There is also weak compliance and enforcement of environmental sustainability standards and norms, coupled with inadequate environmental emergency preparedness and response systems, and weak environmental monitoring and surveillance systems and capacities. To overcome these constraints, the Government will strengthen the policy and regulatory framework for climate change, natural resources and environmental management, green growth, forestry and meteorology. This will bolster the coordination mechanism and promote the transition to a modern green economy. A green growth strategy will be developed to promote an economy-wide integration of green values and principles in consumption and production systems. This will enhance the efficiency and productivity of natural resource use, reduce pollution, and improve the economy’s resilience to climate change, disaster risks and other shocks. The Government will also enhance education and awareness-raising on the importance of sustainable management of the environment, ecosystems and natural resources. This will ensure that citizens understand the impacts of poor environmental practices and take necessary actions to contribute to environmental sustainability. Additionally, the Government will strengthen national and sub-national institutional and technical capacities for sustainable environmental, ecosystems and natural resources management. This will be actualised through implementation of strategies and programmes aimed at achieving the interlinked development outcomes outlined below. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 61 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

7.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: ENHANCED MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Under this development outcome, the Government will prioritise the implementation of adaptation actions in Zambia’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve improved adaptive capacity, reduced vulnerability and enhanced resilience to climate change, for both human and biophysical systems. The Government will also invest in ambitious mitigation actions by promoting low carbon sustainable consumption and production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and meet the emission reduction targets set out in the NDCs. In addition, the Government will enact legislation on climate change to strengthen the coordination framework and enhance coherence between adaptation and disaster risk reduction, among others. Further, the Government will increase resource mobilisation for climate actions and disaster risk reduction from various sources, including the public sector, private sector and other development and cooperating partners, to ensure that climate action is adequately funded. The Government will also promote engagement in the carbon market with a view to ensuring that benefits from carbon trading accrue to local communities. In addition, resource mobilisation through green bonds and other innovative climate finance sources will be pursued. Increased climate finance will ensure that enhanced and ambitious climate adaptation and mitigation action is implemented to achieve a sustainable, inclusive climate resilient and low carbon green economy.

7.4.1 Strategy 1: Strengthen Climate Change Adaptation Implementing adaptation measures will contribute to building the resilience of communities and the economy to the impacts of climate change. During the 8NDP period, therefore, the Government will enhance human and institutional capacities for undertaking and supporting more ambitious climate change actions. Further, improved production and consumption practices and nature-based solutions will be promoted among communities to enhance climate change adaptation. This will include engaging communities in activities such as water harvesting, integrated water resources management including scaled-up irrigation development and climate-smart agriculture. In addition, communities will be engaged in environmentally friendly alternative livelihoods and natural resources-based value chains aimed at strengthening resilience and sustaining livelihoods. With the implementation of these interventions, it is expected that the level of resilience will increase to medium by 2026 from low in 2021. Programmes: a) Institutional framework strengthening b) Climate change mainstreaming c) Long-term adaptation planning d) Nature-based solutions e) Sustainable land, forest and water management f) Sustainable agriculture g) Climate-resilient infrastructure development 62 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

7.4.2 Strategy 2: Strengthen Climate Change Mitigation To enhance climate change mitigation and promote low carbon development, the Government will implement various interventions in forestry, agriculture and energy. In line with the NDCs, focus in the forestry sector will be on forestry enhancement, sustainable charcoal production, improved cooking devices and forestry fire management. In agriculture, the focus will be on climate-smart agriculture while in energy the focus will be on switching towards green and renewable energy sources, such as biogas, solar, and wind. Increasing energy use efficiency, as well as reducing electricity transmission and distribution losses from the national grid will also be prioritised. With the implementation of these interventions, it is expected that the country will reduce GHG emissions amounting to 25,147.2 Gg CO2 (equivalent) by 2025 using 2010 as a base year. Programmes: a) Sustainable consumption and production b) Sustainable land management c) Pollution prevention and control d) Greenhouse gas transparency framework e) Sustainable agriculture promotion f) Sustainable forest management g) Technology development and transfer h) Green and renewable energy

7.4.3 Strategy 3: Enhance Disaster Risk Reduction and Response To enhance disaster risk management, the Government will strengthen disaster risk reduction, enhance early warning systems for timely action and disaster preparedness for effective response to build back better in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Further, the Government will undertake disaster risk assessments, establish emergency operation centres, community-based disaster risk management programmes and post-disaster recovery activities for resilience building. With the implementation of these interventions, it is expected that disaster risks and losses will reduce by 10 percent per annum over the five-year period. Programmes: a) Climate information services b) Early warning system c) Disaster preparedness and mitigation d) Disaster response and recovery Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 63 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1.     Strengthen climate change adaptation a)    Institutional framework strengthening b) Climate change mainstreaming c) Long-term adaptation planning d) Nature-based solutions e) Sustainable land, forest and water management f) Sustainable agriculture g) Climate-resilient infrastructure development 2.     Strengthen climate change mitigation a) Sustainable consumption and production b) Sustainable land management c) Pollution prevention and control d) Greenhouse gas transparency framework e) Sustainable agriculture promotion f) Sustainable forest management g) Technology development and transfer h) Green and renewable energy 3.     Enhance disaster risk reduction and response a) Climate information services b) Early warning system c) Disaster preparedness and mitigation d) Disaster response and recovery

7.5 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT The sustainable management of the environment, ecosystems and natural resources is necessary as it supports the provision of basic human needs, such as clean air, water, fertile land for food and animal production, as well as inputs for other production processes. It also provides functioning services that contribute to the control of soil erosion, floods, disease proliferation and regulation of the climate. The Government will, therefore, promote protection, conservation, restoration and rehabilitation of the environment, ecosystems and natural resources. This will be done mainly through the promotion of integrated and community-based natural resources management systems.

7.5.1 Strategy 1: Promote Integrated Environmental Management During the Plan period, the focus will be on reversing unsustainable environmental and natural resources management practices. Specific measures to be implemented will be: building capacity in environmental protection and control institutions, including local authorities, to restore and protect degraded ecosystems, landscapes and water catchment areas; strengthening monitoring and environmental assessments. Other measures will include the promotion of sustainable consumption and production, including recycling, reducing resource use and reusing of resources in line with the circular economy principles and norms. The Government will also enhance compliance monitoring of industries, enforce effective management of hazardous chemicals and other waste as well as improve environmental quality monitoring and tracking. For other ecologically sensitive areas and forests, the Government will embark on restoration and management of wetlands, headwaters and riverine, afforestation and reforestation and will promote the establishment and development of commercial plantations as well as promote value-addition to forest products. The Government will also strengthen research and technology development while addressing illegal forest land usage. With the implementation of these interventions, it is expected that compliance to environmental standards and guidelines will increase to 65 percent by 2026 from 43 percent in 2021. 64 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Programmes: a) Pollution prevention and control b) Chemical and waste management c) Environmental compliance tracking d) Environmental services valuation e) Urban and regional planning

7.5.2 Strategy 2: Enhance Natural Resources Management The Government will implement programmes aimed at reversing the growing threats to natural resources, ranging from habitat transformation, encroachment, uncontrolled wildfires and invasive species. Among the key interventions will be to enhance community participation in natural resource management. The operations of committees responsible for the management of natural resources, , game management areas, forests and water will therefore, be strengthened. Further, the Government will promote the quantification and valuation of natural resources and ecosystem services and operationalise conservation plans for critical wetlands. The Government will also strengthen research and technology development while addressing illegal land-use change with local authorities and other relevant institutions and stakeholders. A major policy shift during the 8NDP period will be to ban the unsustainable production and consumption of charcoal by 2025. In this regard, measures will be put in place to protect the livelihoods of those in the charcoal value chain and promote alternative energy sources for charcoal users. With the implementation of these interventions, it is expected that the deforestation rate will reduce to 120,000 hectares of forest cover per annum by 2026 from 172,000 hectares of forest cover per annum in 2021. Programmes: a) Sustainable land and forest management b) Sustainable wildlife and fisheries management c) Urban and land use planning d) Community-based natural resources management e) Water catchment protection and conservation f) Natural resource valuation and accounting Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1.     Promote integrated environmental management a) Pollution prevention and control b) Chemical and waste management c) Environmental compliance tracking d) Environmental services valuation e) Urban and regional planning 2.    Enhance natural resources management a) Sustainable land and forest management b) Sustainable wildlife and fisheries management c) Urban and land use planning d) Community based natural resources management e) Water catchment protection and conservation f) Natural resource valuation and accounting Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 65 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 8. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 4: GOOD GOVERNANCE ENVIRONMENT

8.1. OVERVIEW Good governance entails respect for human rights and freedoms, entrenching transparency and accountability, increasing participation, strengthening the democratic process, enhancing access to justice, observance of the rule of law and upholding national values and principles. It also entails having strong and independent institutions. Good governance is an important precursor for transforming the economy, sustaining economic growth and promoting human dignity, thereby safeguarding lives and livelihoods. This strategic development area will therefore focus on strengthening the policy, legal and institutional framework for good governance, as well as enhancing the rule of law, human rights and constitutionalism.

8.2 CURRENT SITUATION Over the past few years, the Government has undertaken various governance reforms. These, among others, included the development of the first-ever National Legal Aid Policy in 2018, which aims to increase access to justice for all, particularly the poor and vulnerable in society. Following the launch of the Policy, 26,097 clients were assisted with legal services in 2021 compared to 9,335 clients in 2017. Zambia’s Rule of Law Index also improved from -0.25 in 2016 to 0.47 in 2020, surpassing the planned 7NDP end-target of

0.25. Nonetheless, the speedy dispensation of justice remains a challenge due to several factors, among them being the inadequate number of qualified and practicing lawyers. The ratio of judicial officers to population continued to be unfavourable, especially at the High Court level, where on average, one judge dealt with about 264 cases in 2019. Further, inadequate numbers and types of courts contributed to the build-up of the backlog of cases. Compounding this problem has been the lack of an integrated case flow management system under the justice system in the processing of cases. In 2021, the Zambia Correctional Service facilities, with a holding capacity of only 10,600, accommodated 21,400 prisoners. Additionally, the National Prosecution Authority was decentralised to only 64 out of 116 districts since 2017. To promote a decentralised and democratically elected system of governance that enhances community participation in decision-making, the Government continued to implement the National Decentralisation Policy. While some progress was recorded in areas such as political and administrative decentralisation, the actualisation of full devolution was yet to be attained. The provision of public services related to health, education, agriculture, public safety and order have been inadequate due to below optimal staffing levels. For these sectors, the number of specialised personnel remains low. There is, therefore, need to enhance personnel specialisation. Further, public infrastructure and equipment for the delivery of public services are poorly maintained, leading to low quality of public services. To enhance transparency and accountability in the utilisation of public resources, the Public Finance Management Act No. 1 of 2018, the National Planning and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020 and the Public Procurement Act No. 8 of 2020 were enacted. Among other objectives, the three pieces of legislation seek to strengthen public financial management, adherence to procurement guidelines as well as linking the national planning and budgeting processes. In addition, the Public Audit Act No. 29 of 2016 was enacted 66 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 to provide a framework for promoting efficiency, accountability, effectiveness and transparency in public administration through effective oversight and audit of public resources and performance. The country also undertook sensitisation and advocacy campaigns on public finance management. Further, the Government accelerated the implementation of the e-government reform agenda to make government processes more transparent and enhance accountability in public service delivery. A firm foundation was also created for the implementation of decentralisation reforms through policy and legal reforms. In addition, the Statistics Act No. 13 of 2018 was enacted to set the basis for the strengthening of national data and information systems and the restructuring of the national statistics authority into the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats). It is worth noting that the country’s statistical capacity index improved to 62.5 in 2020 from 52 in 2017 against the 7NDP target of 60. Though progress was recorded in some areas of governance, the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) for Zambia dropped to 33 out of 100 in 2021 from 38 in 2013. This could in part be on account of low accessibility by the majority of citizens to institutions charged with ensuring transparency and accountability as they are mostly centralised. Other challenges relate to the low empowerment of citizens to hold public officers accountable, inefficiencies in the delivery of public services, and ineffective grievance resolution mechanisms. These challenges have hampered the fight against corruption. The country continues to record low participation in the democratic and political governance processes as well as decision-making by women, the youth and PWDs. As of August 2021, the proportion of women in Parliament reduced to 13 percent from 18.1 percent in 2016. The youth constituted four percent of the Members of Parliament with PWDs constituting less than one percent. In 2021, elected female Mayors and Council Chairpersons increased to 25 percent and 10 percent from 12 percent and 7 percent in 2016, respectively. There is, therefore, need to promote the participation of women, youth and PWDs in decision- making positions. To promote constitutionalism and the rule of law, the Constitution of Zambia was amended in 2016 to enhance human rights and strengthen governance institutions. Further, to fully operationalise the enhanced provisions, subsidiary legislation was enacted. It is, however, necessary to undertake constitutional reforms through a consultative process to achieve a constitution that reflects the people’s aspirations. The Government has been implementing reforms to strengthen the oversight functions of the Legislature. However, more needs to be done to increase oversight functions in the implementation of NDPs. There is also need for increased utilisation of available public participation platforms such as constituency offices.

8.3 CONSTRAINTS The realisation of a conducive governance environment has largely been constrained by the slow pace of implementation of key reforms. These include performance management, e-government, decentralisation, public finance management, parliamentary and judicial reforms. Additionally, inadequate capacity of governance and investigative agencies to investigate and prosecute corruption and related crimes, such as financial and economic offences, has inhibited the creation of a good governance environment. There is also low enforcement of recommendations from the Legislature and other oversight institutions. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 67 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Another constraint is inadequate knowledge among citizens and other interest groups on the existing platforms for engagement of elected representatives, and other governance agencies. As a result, interest groups and citizens have not effectively held their leaders accountable. Other constraints include inadequate infrastructure and limited utilisation of ICT solutions, thereby adversely affecting the efficient delivery of services.

8.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED POLICY AND GOVERNANCE ENVIRONMENT During the Plan period, the Government will ensure that a conducive and stable policy and legislative environment is put in place. This will enhance certainty and instil confidence among citizens, businesses and investors. To achieve this, the Government will continue to strengthen the existing policy, legal and institutional framework. The Government will also establish inclusive consultative processes and undertake reforms that will improve interactions with citizens, the private sector, civil society and the public sector, among others.

8.4.1 Strategy 1: Decentralise Public Service Delivery Systems During the Plan period, the Government will focus on actualising decentralisation of functions from central government to the sub-national levels to enhance public service delivery. This is in line with the National Decentralisation Policy of 2013 and its implementation framework. It is therefore, envisaged that local authorities will play a major role in public service delivery at the district level and will coordinate development at that level. Further, local government reforms will be implemented to enhance financial management, revenue generation and investment in capacity enhancement for effective delivery of socio-economic development. Fiscal mapping and decentralisation of resources to the sub-national levels through effective implementation of the National Decentralisation Policy of 2013 will be undertaken. The capacity of communities will be strengthened to manage and implement programmes with high social and economic impact under the CDF. This will improve participation of lower-level governance structures in identification of local priority projects, and beneficiaries of empowerment and bursary support programmes. The local planning process will also be harmonised and strengthened, anchored on the full operationalisation of the National Planning and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020 and the Urban and Regional Planning Act No. 3 of 2015. Programmes: a) Sector decentralisation b) Human resource management reforms c) Fiscal decentralisation d) Policy and legal reforms e) Capacity development 68 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

8.4.2 Strategy 2: Strengthen National Data and Information Systems The Government will fully operationalise the Statistics Act No. 13 of 2018 for an integrated National Statistical System to increase the coverage, production, access to and use of quality data as well as statistics for national development. Further, efforts will be placed on improving the coverage of civil and vital registration systems as well as improving administrative data systems. Hence, the civil and vital registration system will be decentralised, to increase coverage for the registration of vital events and comply with the human rights of citizens, including operationalisation of the Integrated National Registration Information System (INRIS). The INRIS will lead to enhanced security systems through identification of citizens, and optimisation of various public services, such as tax administration, social services and health insurance provision. The Government will also strengthen the use of information management systems across all sectors. Programmes: a) Integrated information management systems b) Infrastructure development c) National statistical reforms d) Human resource development e) Integrated National Registration Information System

8.4.3 Strategy 3: Strengthen Transparency and Accountability Mechanisms In the 8NDP period, the Government will scale-up interventions to promote transparency and accountability. To this effect, governance and investigative institutions, such as the Office of the Auditor-General and the Anti-Corruption Commission, will be capacitated to enhance transparency and accountability. In an effort to take services closer to the people, the Office of the Public Protector will be decentralised to provincial centres. This will be done to step up the enforcement mechanisms for upholding principles of integrity among those charged with the responsibility of managing public resources and providing public services. This is envisaged to increase investor and citizen confidence that will drive the economic transformation and job creation agenda. The Government will strengthen internal control systems and operations of audit committees to enhance transparency. Further, the Government will enhance access to public information by undertaking media reforms. The oversight role of the Legislature will also be enhanced to promote transparency and accountability, including public finance management. Additionally, the National Anti-Corruption Policy of 2009 and legislation relating to economic crimes and money laundering will be revised. During the Plan period, a conducive environment will be created for active participation of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in national development through the revision of the Non-Governmental Organisations Act No. 16 of 2009. This will improve coordination of NGOs in the country. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 69 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Programmes: a) Public finance management reforms c) Public procurement management d) Civic education e) Audit and risk management f) Parliamentary reforms g) Media reforms h) Policy and legal reforms

8.4.4 Strategy 4: Strengthen Democratic and Political Governance The separation of powers among the three arms of Government will, during the Plan period, be enhanced. This will entail an effective Judiciary that is accessible and delivers timely justice and enhanced oversight by the National Assembly of Zambia for effective checks and balances on the Executive. A level playing field for the participation and inclusion of marginalised and underrepresented sections of society such as women, the youth and PWDs in the political arena will be promoted through electoral reforms. The participation of the marginalised in the public sector, through recruitment and appointment to decision-making positions, will equally be promoted. This will be actualised through affirmative actions that boost the participation of marginalised groups. In addition, the decentralisation of electoral processes and continuous voter registration will be implemented. Elected representatives will also be supported to strengthen democratic processes. Further, parliamentary reforms will be undertaken to reposition the National Assembly of Zambia in national development. The Government will develop the first-ever National Governance Policy to coordinate the promotion and application of governance principles, practices and standards across all sectors. The policy will be a blueprint for championing the rule of law, accountability and transparency, corporate governance, democracy and political governance as well as the prudent utilisation of public resources. In line with the National Gender Policy, affirmative actions will be implemented towards the progressive attainment of the target of 50-50 percent participation of men and women in decision-making positions. With these interventions it is expected that the percentage of female Members of Parliament will increase to 50 percent in 2026 from 18 percent in 2021. Programmes: a) Policy, legal and judicial reforms b) Electoral reforms c) Parliamentary reforms d) Affirmative action 70 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

8.4.5 Strategy 5: Strengthen Public Service Performance Management Systems The public service will, during the Plan period, strengthen systems to promote effectiveness and efficiency in the delivery of public goods and services to support economic transformation. This will be done through leveraging on ICT for accessing public services, setting enabling policies and business regulations and following laid down procedures. Further, the Government will promote effective leadership, professionalism, meritocracy, performance, and accountability among public officers, as well as institutions in the delivery of services to citizens. The Government will also promote the maintenance of public infrastructure and equipment to enhance public service provision for social and economic development. Additionally, the Government will take advantage of PPP initiatives in the development, maintenance and management of public infrastructure. Programmes: a) Electronic government b) Performance management system c) Public infrastructure maintenance

8.4.6 Strategy 6: Strengthen Land Management and Administration Land reforms will be undertaken to fully operationalise the National Lands Policy of 2021. A review of various statutes relating to land management systems will be undertaken to ensure enhanced access to land. This will contribute to increased productivity among the citizenry and equity in access to productive resources. Further, the Government will decentralise land registration to provincial centres and digitise the process of issuance of certificates of land title to ensure efficient land administration. Programmes: a) National land titling b) Land management and administration c) Land information management system d) Urban and regional planning e) Reaffirmation of international land boundaries Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 71 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Strategies and Programmes Strategy Programme 1. Decentralise public service delivery systems a) Sector decentralisation b) Human resource management reforms c) Fiscal decentralisation d) Policy and legal reforms e) Capacity development 2. Strengthen national data and information systems a) Integrated information management systems b) Infrastructure development c) National statistical reforms d) Human resource development e) Integrated National Registration Information System 3. Strengthen transparency and accountability mechanisms a) Public finance management reforms b) Public procurement management c) Civic education d) Audit and risk management e) Parliamentary reforms f) Media reforms g) Policy and legal reforms 4. Strengthen democratic and political governance a) Policy, legal and judicial reforms b) Electoral reforms c) Parliamentary reforms d) Affirmative action 5. Strengthen public service performance management systems a) Electronic government b) Performance management system c) Public infrastructure maintenance 6. Strengthen land management and administration a) National land titling b) Land management and administration c) Land information management system d) Urban and regional planning e) Reaffirmation of international land boundaries

8.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED RULE OF LAW, HUMAN RIGHTS AND CONSTITUTIONALISM To achieve improved rule of law, human rights, and constitutionalism, the Government will strengthen the criminal justice system. This will be attained through the review of the Constitution, promotion of human rights and enhancement of access to justice, and legal aid services. In addition, will be the development of human and technical capacity, modernisation of judicial systems, as well as the development of infrastructure,

8.5.1 Strategy 1: Strengthen Human Rights and Constitutionalism Comprehensive constitutional reforms will be undertaken to enhance good governance and strengthen the protection of human rights which are critical ingredients to the wellbeing of citizens. Further, subsidiary laws will be aligned to the Constitution. The Government will also progressively decentralise and enhance the capacity of governance institutions to improve access, and the quality of service delivery. Programmes: a) Constitutional reforms b) Human rights protection c) Capacity development d) Governance institutions decentralisation 72 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

8.5.2 Strategy 2: Strengthen the Criminal and Justice System and Enhance the Rule of Law During the Plan period, efforts will be made to progressively decentralise and modernise the judicial system to expedite dispensation of justice. Offender management will be enhanced and reforms to review and decentralise the parole framework undertaken. In addition, the juvenile justice framework will be reviewed and the system of rehabilitation of drug-related offenders strengthened. Legal reforms, such as the review of the Public Order Act and Penal Code, will be undertaken. This will lead to a safe and stable environment that will contribute to promoting peace and unity to spur investment in the country. Programmes: a) Crime prevention, detection and prosecution b) Infrastructure development c) Human resource development d) Circuit courts e) Fast track courts f) Judicial and security system automation g) Offender management h) Constitutional reforms Strategy and Programmes Strategy Programmes 1. Strengthen human rights and constitutionalism a)    Constitutional reforms b) Human rights protection c) Capacity development d) Governance institutions decentralisation 2. Strengthen the criminal and justice system and enhance rule of law a)       Crime prevention, detection and prosecution b)       Infrastructure development c)        Human resource development d)       Circuit courts e)       Fast track courts f)        Judicial and security system automation g)       Offender management h) Constitutional reforms Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 73 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA PART V: MANAGEMENT OF THE PLAN 74 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 9. IMPLEMENTATION AND COORDINATION FRAMEWORK

9.1 INTRODUCTION The realisation of the 8NDP development outcomes depends on a comprehensive coordination framework that guides the implementation of the Plan. The coordination and implementation mechanisms will be government-led with the full participation of various stakeholders, including non-state actors at national and sub-national levels. The implementation and coordination framework of the Plan recognises the structures and institutional arrangements as provided for under the National Planning and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020. The National Development Coordinating Committee (NDCC), Cluster Advisory Groups (CAGs), Provincial Development Coordinating Committees (PDCCs) and District Development Coordinating Committees (DDCCs) will coordinate and provide oversight in the implementation of the Plan. In addition, the Ward Development Committees (WDCs) will coordinate the implementation of development interventions at the ward level. These structures will ensure transparency and broad stakeholder participation in the national planning and budgeting processes and also enhance accountability for development results. The implementation of the Plan will be undertaken using an integrated multi-sectoral approach. This entails the clustering of stakeholders in line with the strategic development areas of the Plan to coordinate in the planning, budgeting, and implementation and monitoring of interventions. These interventions relate to programmes, projects and activities with specific deliverables to be generated semi-annually, annually, and at the end of the Plan period. Ministries, provinces and other spending agencies (MPSAs) and non-state institutions assigned to implement a particular programme, project or activity in the 8NDP will be required to ensure that they effectively coordinate the planning, budgeting, implementation and monitoring of the performance of that particular intervention. Interventions that require joint efforts by various development actors will be expected to be implemented in a coordinated manner, with a lead institution working together with relevant actors to ensure effective planning, budgeting and implementation. The Ministry responsible for national planning will provide guidelines for effective coordination and implementation of the 8NDP interventions. This will be complemented by the provision of technical support to ensure that the development coordination and implementation mechanisms are effective for the discharge of the assigned functions and responsibilities. MPSAs, including local authorities, will be required to develop institutional strategic and implementation plans, which will specify how each ministry, provincial office, local authority and spending agency will contribute to the achievement of the development targets set out in the 8NDP. This will form the basis of medium-term and annual national budget estimates for MPSAs. A system of accounting for development results will be elaborated in the Implementation Plan of the 8NDP. This will be the basis for tracking progress on the implementation of the Plan as well as guiding the participation of state, non-state actors and the general citizenry in line with the National Planning and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 75 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

9.2 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS The institutional arrangements for coordinating the implementation of the 8NDP will include oversight bodies, implementing institutions and advisory structures. The following institutions will play key roles in ensuring effective implementation of the Plan in line with the set objectives and targets:

9.2.1 National Assembly The National Assembly will approve the Plan and play an oversight role to ensure that the Government delivers on its mandate and that the process for the achievement of development outcomes is based on principles of accountability, transparency and value for money. Further, the National Assembly will approve the national budgets to operationalise the implementation of the strategies and programmes in the 8NDP.

9.2.2 Cabinet The Cabinet will provide policy direction to ensure that the development outcomes of the Plan are realised. It will facilitate the provision of an enabling environment for the successful implementation of the Plan. Further, it will interface with the National Assembly through the introduction of laws and be held accountable for implementation of the Plan.

9.2.3 Cabinet Office Cabinet Office will facilitate the optimal operation of the public sector by ensuring policy consistency and coherence, effective implementation of public sector reforms and implementation of Cabinet decisions. In particular, Cabinet Office will ensure effective human resource management for continuity of public sector and government operations, optimal staffing levels in government institutions as well as the enforcement of performance-based management for efficient and effective public service delivery. Additionally, Cabinet Office will facilitate the cascading of the 8NDP into institutional strategic and implementation plans.

9.2.4 Office of the Auditor-General The Office of the Auditor-General (OAG) will support the implementation of the 8NDP by examining whether public resources are spent efficiently and effectively in compliance with existing rules and regulations. Further, the OAG will undertake performance audits of some programmes in the Plan.

9.2.5 Ministry Responsible for Finance and National Planning The Ministry responsible for finance and national planning will coordinate the design, implementation, monitoring and reporting of national development interventions. This will involve coordinating all advisory bodies and supporting the implementation, monitoring and evaluation processes of the Plan. Further, the Ministry will coordinate the appraisal of public projects and investments to ensure value for money. The Ministry will also facilitate resource mobilisation for various Plan interventions to ensure implementation. It will coordinate the formulation of annual and medium-term budgets as well as ensure efficient execution of budgets. In this regard, the Ministry will ensure the alignment of budgets to the 8NDP. 76 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

9.2.6 Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development The Ministry responsible for local government and rural development will coordinate the implementation of the 8NDP by local authorities. It will also ensure that ward development plans and Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) are consistent with the development aspirations of the 8NDP.

9.2.7 House of Chiefs According to Article 169 (5.) (b) and (d) of the Constitution, the role of the House of Chiefs is to make recommendations to the National Assembly and the local authorities regarding socio-economic development issues. In this regard, the House of Chiefs will play a key role in initiating, discussing and making recommendations regarding development issues to both the National Assembly and local authorities with respect to the implementation of the 8NDP.

9.2.8 Ministries, Provinces and other Spending Agencies Ministries, Provinces and other Spending Agencies (MPSAs) will coordinate the implementation of the 8NDP interventions within their respective mandates and advisory bodies. In so doing, MPSAs will be required to develop institutional strategic and implementation plans that will specify how they will contribute to the achievement of the development targets set out in the 8NDP.

9.2.9 State-Owned Enterprises State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) will undertake various commercial activities to complement private sector investments. SOEs will also generate resources to complement government revenues for the financing of the Plan and will further be expected to provide services, especially in areas where it is currently uneconomical for the private sector to operate. This will include the provision of socio-economic services such as electricity, water, sanitation, insurance, skills training, milling and agricultural marketing. In addition, they will partner with private companies to establish business operations in various sectors to mobilise investment funds in various sectors.

9.2.10 Private Sector The private sector will be key in actualising economic transformation and job creation, as well as contributing to service delivery across all strategic development areas. To this end, the private sector will be expected to drive economic growth through increased investments and contribute towards resource mobilisation to finance the Plan. The Government will, therefore, strengthen dialogue with the private sector.

9.2.11 Civil Society Organisations Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) will complement Government efforts in implementing community-based projects including those aimed at reducing poverty, gender inequality, youth unemployment and supporting the underprivileged in society. Further, CSOs will provide advocacy as well as checks and balances in public governance. The Government will, therefore, enhance dialogue with CSOs with a view to strengthening collaboration. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 77 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

9.2.12 Cooperating and Development Partners The Government will collaborate with cooperating and development partners in the implementation of the 8NDP interventions through different financing mechanisms and technical assistance. Cooperating and development partners will be engaged through various dialogue platforms to ensure that their interventions are aligned to the 8NDP.

9.3 COORDINATION AND ADVISORY STRUCTURES Coordination of the 8NDP will be at national, sectoral, provincial, district and ward levels. This is in line with the decentralised planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation processes (see Figure 13).

9.3.1 National Level Coordination and Implementation The NDCC will be the apex advisory body to the Cabinet on matters relating to NDPs and budgets. National level coordination will work towards enhancing synergies among stakeholders for efficient and effective implementation of programmes at all levels and galvanising the participation of state and non-state institutions in meeting targets for agreed-upon national indicators.

9.3.2 Sectoral Level Coordination and Implementation To facilitate the participation of state and non-state actors in the implementation and monitoring of the Plan, Cluster Advisory Groups (CAGs) will continue to be utilised. The CAGs will be constituted on the basis of the four strategic development areas of the 8NDP and will bring together relevant key stakeholders contributing to the achievement of the results for the various development outcomes of the Plan.

9.3.3 Provincial Level Coordination and Implementation To facilitate the participation of state and non-state actors in the implementation and monitoring of the Plan at provincial level, Provincial Development Coordinating Committees (PDCCs) will be utilised. The PDCCs will work to ensure that provinces deliver on the targets set in the Plan. The PDCCs will also provide oversight to districts.

9.3.4 District Level Coordination and Implementation The District Development Coordinating Committees (DDCCs) will ensure that non-state actors operating in the district collaborate with government institutions and agencies through joint planning, implementation and monitoring of district interventions. The collaboration will also involve the sharing of information on the development interventions being implemented. This will be done with a view to dealing with, among others, district-specific development challenges. 78 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

9.3.5 Ward Development Committees Ward Development Committees (WDCs) are the lowest coordinating body for implementation of projects at community level for as well as in the monitoring and reporting of progress. This will be done in line with the objectives of the 8NDP. During the Plan period, WDCs will be fully operationalised to promote the participation of citizens in development at the district level. To this end, the capacities of these committees will be enhanced to allow for effective coordination of development programme outputs under various strategic development areas of the Plan. Figure 13: Overall Institutional Arrangements for Coordination Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 79 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 10. MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK

10.1 OVERVIEW The Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Framework for the 8NDP has been formulated to track progress towards the attainment of set developmental targets. The Framework also provides guidance to various stakeholders expected to provide oversight, coordination and implementation of 8NDP programmes. Actors in the M&E system include the Government, civil society and faith-based organisations, the private sector, cooperating and development partners, local authorities, traditional authorities, and the general citizenry. The 8NDP M&E Framework is anchored on the National Performance Framework for the Vision 2030, which articulates the long-term development results to be achieved by the country. Monitoring and evaluation of the 8NDP will be undertaken at national, provincial, district and ward levels by implementing and oversight institutions. The 8NDP will be managed using a results-based approach, with an emphasis on accountability and timeliness in the delivery of results. The results framework will take into account inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts as indicated in Figure 14. Figure 14: Diagrammatic Representation of the 8NDP Results Framework Vision 2030 Long Term Development Results 8NDP Results: Socioeconomic Transformation and Improved livelihoods Impact/Key Performance Indicators will be used to IMPACT measure progress on the Plan’s Four Strategic Development Areas Implementation Process Planning Process Outcome Indicators will be used to measure OUTCOME intermediate results of the 8NDP. Consistent tracking of Inputs, outputs and outcomes will be Planned programme outputs will be tracked to undertaken OUTPUTS measure plan implementation progress. Inputs such as finances required to support the INPUTS achievement of plan outputs will be outlined in annual work plans. 80 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 To ensure effective reporting on progress, the national, provincial and district indicators will be aligned to national outputs, outcomes, and impact indicators. Measurement of these indicators will be done at all levels of the results chain. Utilisation of inputs will be measured through budget performance analysis. Output performance of the 8NDP will be monitored through tracking of programme outputs by ward, districts, provinces and CAGs at the national level. This information will feed into quarterly and annual 8NDP progress reports. In addition, spot monitoring will be periodically undertaken, and reports produced to provide information to various stakeholders on programme and project implementation.

10.2 MONITORING Monitoring of the implementation of the 8NDP will be undertaken periodically in line with the agreed M&E Framework. Progress will be tracked using the results framework, encompassing agreed indicators and targets cascading from national to provincial, district and ward levels. Project implementation will be monitored to ensure the generation of planned outputs that feed into the attainment of key development outcomes and impacts. The mechanisms that will be used to monitor the implementation of the 8NDP programmes include the Management Monitoring System (MMS) and spot monitoring.

10.2.1 Management Monitoring System The MMS will automate 8NDP data and information management in order to achieve efficiency in M&E data processing and performance reporting. Tracking of 8NDP outcome targets, which include progress towards global and regional commitments, will also be done through the MMS.

10.2.2 Spot Monitoring At the national level, MPSAs and CAGs will conduct spot checks of the 8NDP programmes and projects under their charge to ensure that implementation is on track and to address any challenges that may negatively affect programme/project implementation. Spot checks will also be undertaken at provincial, district and ward levels. Reports from project site visits will focus on tracking programme and project outputs and measuring performance against set development outcomes. The reports will also include lessons learnt so as to improve programme implementation.

10.2.3 Annual Progress Report In accordance with the National Planning and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020, 8NDP Annual Progress Reports will be produced using data that will be uploaded onto the MMS. The reports will be tabled before the National Assembly in line with the provisions of the National Planning and Budgeting Act on or before the last Friday of May of each year. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 81 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

10.3 EVALUATION Evaluations of the 8NDP will focus on assessing the performance of outcome and impact indicators. Policy and programme reviews of specific social, economic or governance interventions in the Plan will be evaluated to gather information on optimal implementation approaches for such programmes. Further, 8NDP evaluations, including mid-term and final evaluations, will be undertaken from which policy recommendations will be derived.

10.3.1 Mid-Term Review A Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the Plan will be undertaken to assess progress made towards meeting the achievement of Plan outcomes. The mid-term evaluation will involve an analysis of both Plan processes and intermediate outcomes/results. The purpose of the MTR is to generate evidence to inform the Plan interventions in subsequent years, as well as feed into the development and strategic focus of the next NDP. In accordance with the National Planning and Budgeting Act, the MTR report will be laid before the National Assembly, before or on the last Friday of May in the fourth year of implementation of the 8NDP.

10.3.2 Final Evaluation In line with the provisions of the National Planning and Budgeting Act, a final evaluation of the Plan will be undertaken to assess the impact and ascertain lessons learnt from implementation of the Plan. The final 8NDP evaluation report will be produced two years after the expiry of the Plan.

10.4 DATA CATALOGUE A Data Catalogue, that centralises all the key information (metadata) pertaining to the indicators that are included in the 8NDP, will be developed and published. The Data Catalogue will provide easy access to information relating to definitions, structure, source of information, collection method, quality and use of the data in the Plan. Further, the Catalogue will enable all practitioners and users to access and understand reasons for selecting the national indicators, how they are generated, the frequency of data generation and the purpose of the information being generated. This will ensure standardised generation of data and statistics on indicators. The Catalogue is also expected to contribute to improved quality of data used in NDP progress and performance reporting. National censuses and surveys conducted by the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats) and other institutions will support the generation of data and statistics for the indicators in the 8NDP. Additionally, institutions will be required to routinely collect and process administrative data for use in the 8NDP monitoring and evaluation process. To this end, a national statistical calendar will be developed and published to support the monitoring and evaluation function. 82 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 PART VI: FINANCING OF THE PLAN Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 83 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA 11. FINANCING THE 8NDP

11.1 OVERVIEW Financing of the 8NDP will be done through traditional and non-traditional sources of finance. Traditional sources will include domestic revenue, grants, donations and concessional loans. Non-traditional sources of finance will include alternative sources that will have low or no interest payments or guarantee commitments from the Government, such as public-private partnerships (PPPs) and impact capital. In the quest to manage public spending, some programmes and projects in the Plan will not be financed from the national budget but from resources coming through private sector and other cooperating and development partners.

11.2 TRADITIONAL SOURCES OF FINANCE

11.2.1 Domestic Revenues (Tax and Non-Tax Revenues) The Government will continue putting in place measures that will enhance domestic revenue mobilisation and increase its contribution to the overall resource envelope. This will be achieved through, among other things, streamlining the tax system and creating a stable and predictable tax environment. Further, the Government will leverage on ICT platforms to curb revenue leakages, increase compliance and enhance non-tax revenue collections. Domestic revenues are projected to contribute at least K671.2 billion over the Plan period.

11.2.2 External Grants The Government will continue working with cooperating and development partners to achieve common objectives and bridge the financing gap in the form of grants. The support from cooperating and development partners, mostly targeted at human development, is projected at K11.3 billion over the Plan period.

11.2.3 Domestic and External Financing The Government aims to reduce the fiscal deficits to sustainable levels over the Plan period. This will be done by curtailing the rapid accumulation of debt and limiting the contraction of non-concessional loans except in instances of refinancing. In line with the fiscal sustainability objective, domestic borrowing is projected to decline to less than 4.7 percent of GDP by 2026, while external financing, including project loans, is projected at 1.8 percent of GDP by the end of 2026.

11.2.4 Resource Envelope Over the Plan period, the resource envelope from traditional sources is estimated at K997.1 billion or an average of K199.4 billion annually (see Table 5). Additional financing for the Plan is expected to be sourced from non-traditional sources. 84 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Table 5: Estimate of Resources, 2022-2026 (K’000) Type of Resources 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL AVERAGE A. Available Resources 172,987,078 177,587,170 211,872,741 191,312,442 198,019,081 951,778,512 190,355,702.36 1. Revenue and Grants 100,681,126 117,147,185 135,119,003 150,535,485 156,711,456 660,194,255 132,038,851.02 O/w Total Revenue 98,859,158 115,254,160 133,137,006 147,958,352 154,042,890 649,251,566 129,850,313.11 Grants 1,821,968 1,893,025 1,981,997 2,577,133 2,668,567 10,942,690 2,188,537.91 2. Financing 72,305,952 60,439,985 76,753,738 40,776,957 41,307,625 291,584,257 58,316,851.34 O/w Domestic 24,458,941 29,819,853 34,344,657 30,714,449 31,021,593 150,359,493 30,071,898.58 Programme Loans 39,347,311 21,225,340 34,878,280 4,781,700 5,009,400 105,242,031 21,048,406.20 Project Loans 8,499,700 9,394,792 7,530,801 5,280,808 5,276,631 35,982,733 7,196,546.56 Source: Ministry of Finance and National Planning

11.2.5. Expenditure Over the Plan period, the Government is expected to provide for both constitutional and statutory expenditures, which are non-discretionary and include payments towards debt servicing and salaries. Of the total resources to be mobilised, K649.2 billion will be raised domestically from tax and non-tax revenues. On the other hand, K820.1 billion will be utilised for constitutional, statutory and other expenditures. Therefore, K131.7 billion will be spent on the 8NDP for other programmes. Table 6 below shows the distribution of expenditure on non discretionary items and some other notable expenditures during the Plan period. Table 6: Central Government Non-Discretionary Expenditure, 2022-2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL AVERAGE Type of Expenditure K’000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000 B. Constitutional, Statutory and Other 141,945,282 144,005,102 173,234,339 165,238,287 166,900,756 791,323,766 158,264,753 Expenditures 1. Personal Emoluments 37,822,553 46,443,112 53,365,187 58,611,397 62,592,776 258,835,025 51,767,005 2. Debt Payments 78,680,142 70,466,269 93,291,555 76,732,736 75,548,666 394,719,368 78,943,874 O/w Interest Payments 37,818,778 43,216,870 47,704,061 51,553,123 52,648,422 232,941,254 46,588,251 O/w Domestic 27,364,646 34,007,697 40,129,082 46,445,100 48,586,300 196,532,824 39,306,565 External 10,454,133 9,209,174 7,574,979 5,108,023 4,062,122 36,408,430 7,281,686 Amortisation 40,861,363 27,249,398 45,587,494 25,179,614 22,900,244 161,778,113 32,355,623 3. Grants 8,936,874 9,276,436 10,084,564 10,891,329 11,762,636 50,951,839 10,190,368 4. Pension Funds 2,067,042 2,130,293 2,254,346 2,434,693 2,629,469 11,515,843 2,303,169 5. Foreign Financed Expenditure 10,321,668 11,287,817 9,512,798 11,094,963 8,257,240 50,474,486 10,094,897 6. Earmarked Expenditures 4,117,002 4,401,177 4,725,890 5,473,169 6,109,969 24,827,206 4,965,441 O/w Roads (Domestic) 3,537,336 3,746,202 3,989,485 4,662,270 5,216,065 21,151,358 4,230,272 Rural Electrification Levy 362,209 415,850 475,887 532,144 595,637 2,381,726 476,345 Skills Development Fund 199,787 220,765 241,296 258,187 276,260 1,196,296 239,259 Tourism Levy 17,670 18,359 19,222 20,568 22,007 97,826 19,565.25 C. Discretionary Budget 31,041,796 33,582,068 38,638,403 45,502,110 57,008,471 205,772,847 41,154,569 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 172,987,078 177,587,170 211,872,741 210,740,398 223,909,226 997,096,613 199,419,323 Source: Ministry of Finance and National Planning Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 85 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

11.3. ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF FINANCE To complement the traditional sources of finance for the 8NDP, the Government will promote resource mobilisation from non-traditional sources whose selection will be based on practicality and ease of implementation. The Government will leverage financing mechanisms for implementation of programmes and projects by public sector institutions, the private sector and civil society organisations. The alternative sources are summarised in Figure 15. Figure 15: Alternative Sources of finance Source: Ministry of Finance and National Planning The Government will promote the sourcing and use of finance which will have no-cost implications to the Treasury, mostly for interventions under human development and environmental sustainability. The key financing instruments that will be promoted for uptake by individuals, civil society organisations and the private sector include, venture capital, philanthropy, crowd funding, green financing grants, endowment funds and angel investors. The Government will also encourage the sourcing and use of finance which will have low-cost implications to the Treasury for large public investments. The key financing instruments that will be promoted for uptake by individuals, local authorities and the private sector include, pension funds, capital markets, green bonds, PPPs and impact investments. 86 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

11.4 INTEGRATED NATIONAL FINANCING FRAMEWORK Financing the 8NDP will require policies, partnerships and an enabling environment that effectively mobilises and uses public finance and promotes growth in impactful private finance. In line with the various alternative financing options that have been identified, it is imperative that a robust integrated financing framework to guide the financing of the Plan is put in place. In this regard, the Government will develop an Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) that will provide guidance on the full range of potential sources of financing options. The INFF will outline a strategic approach for the Government and its partners to mobilise and effectively invest these flows in order to actualise the objectives of the 8NDP. A Development Finance Assessment will be conducted to inform the development of the financing framework. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 87 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

12.0 PRECONDITIONS AND RISK MANAGEMENT

12.1. OVERVIEW The success of the 8NDP is underpinned by certain preconditions, potential risks and mitigation measures to ensure successful implementation of the Plan. The following are the preconditions upon which the success of the 8NDP is contingent.

12.1.1. Preconditions Political will is required in the positioning of the Plan, by policymakers, as the blueprint to guide all development efforts during its implementation period. Additionally, Zambia’s continued political stability will be cardinal for increased investment and enhanced socio-economic development. Policymakers will also be expected to commit to reviewing policies and laws that impede private sector participation to enhance its contribution to development.

12.2.2 Stabilisation of the Macroeconomic Fundamentals The Government’s commitment to stable macroeconomic fundamentals is critical for laying a supportive environment for the implementation of the Plan. Instability in the macroeconomic environment will undermine achievement of the objectives of the Plan.

12.2.3 Effective Management of Pandemics The success of the Plan will require effective management of pandemics such as COVID-19 in terms of containing the spread, and mitigating the socio-economic effects, of the pandemics. The Government, in collaboration with partners will, therefore, need to devise and implement measures to manage pandemics to sustain economic activity.

12.2.4 Effective Accountability Frameworks One of the major challenges that has affected the implementation of previous NDPs has been systemic weaknesses in the accountability frameworks. The Government has since enacted the Public Finance Management Act of 2018 and the National Planning and Budgeting Act of 2020. There is, therefore, need to fully operationalise these laws to strengthen accountability frameworks at all levels.

12.2.5 Climate change management Climate change continues to disrupt economic activities in the country and adversely impacts the lives of people in communities. Therefore, the successful implementation of the 8NDP will largely depend on how effectively the country reduces its carbon footprint and adapts to the effects of climate change. 88 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026

12.3 RISK MANAGEMENT The successful implementation of the 8NDP is anchored on management of risks that may negatively impact the actualisation of the planned strategic development areas. It will also entail taking the necessary steps to reduce these risks to acceptable levels by mitigating, monitoring and reporting on them by all implementing institutions in line with the National Risk Management Framework. The potential risks that will be addressed during the Plan period include epidemics and pandemics, market risks, macroeconomic risks, natural disasters and climate change. Strategic risks such as financing, political and security risks will also need to be addressed. Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods 89 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

ANNEX 1: SAMPLE – DETAILED IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Development Focus Area: ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND JOB CREATION Development Focus Area KPI Baseline Year of Baseline Plan Target Development Outcome: AN INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMY Development Outcome Baseline Year of Baseline Plan Target Indicators Strategy 1: PROMOTE MANUFACTURING AND VALUE ADDITION Programme Annual Targets Baseline Plan Programme Programme Output Output Baseline Year Target 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Indicator Value Chains Efficient value chain Development systems with well- coordinated forward and backward linkages developed 90 EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (8NDP) 2022-2026 Ministry of Finance and National Planning P O Box 50062 Lusaka, ZAMBIA Tel: +260-211-252395