Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

1.1 Geography, Climate, and GHG emissions profile ........................................... 3

1.2 Socio-economic trends................................................................................... 7

1.3 Policy, Legal and Institutional Framework .................................................... 11

1.4 The NDC Update Process............................................................................ 12 2 ADAPTATION COMPONENT OF THE UPDATED NDC ............................................... 13

2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 13

2.2 Priority Adaptation Actions and Targets ....................................................... 16 3 MITIGATION COMPONENT OF THE UPDATED NDC .................................................. 27

3.1 Economy-wide Contribution ......................................................................... 27

3.2 Priority Mitigation Measures and Targets ..................................................... 30

3.3 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector .......................... 30

3.3.1 Priority Mitigation Policies and Measures........................................ 30

3.3.2 Targets ........................................................................................... 33

3.3.3 Additional mitigation actions ........................................................... 33

3.4 Energy Sector (Stationary) ........................................................................... 34

3.4.1 Main Mitigation Policies and Measures ........................................... 34

3.4.2 Targets for Energy sector ............................................................... 36

3.4.3 Additional Mitigation actions ........................................................... 37

3.5 Transport Sector .......................................................................................... 38

3.5.1 Main Mitigation Policies and Measures ........................................... 38

3.5.2 Targets for Transport sector ........................................................... 41

3.5.3 Additional Mitigation actions ........................................................... 42

3.6 Waste Sector ............................................................................................... 42

3.6.1 Main mitigation Policies and Measures ........................................... 43

3.6.2 Targets for Waste sector ................................................................ 44

3.6.3 Additional mitigation actions ........................................................... 45

3.7 Industrial Processes and Product Use ......................................................... 45

3.7.1 Mitigation Policies and Measures.................................................... 46

3.7.2 Targets for IPPU sector .................................................................. 46

3.8 Co-benefits of NDC implementation for short-lived Climate pollutant and Air pollutant mitigation ....................................................................................... 47 i 4 MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION.................................................................................... 48

4.1 Climate Finance Needs ................................................................................ 48

4.2 Capacity Building ......................................................................................... 48

4.3 Gender Mainstreaming................................................................................. 49 Annex 1: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of Uganda’s updated NDC ..................................................................................................... 50 ii List of Figures Figure 1-1: Average annual temperature (left); annual precipitation (right), 1991–2020 ........................ 3 Figure 1-2: Future climate change scenarios for Africa – median impacts by 2100 ............................... 4 Figure 1-3: Projected Mean Temperature and Precipitation for Uganda ................................................ 5 Figure 1-4: Sectoral trends in GHG emissions for Uganda .................................................................... 7 Figure 1-5: Actual and projected population in Uganda (Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2020) .. 8 Figure 1-6: Summary of Water, Sanitation and Health data for Uganda (WHO/UNICEF JMP, 2021) . 10 Figure 3-1: Uganda's BAU GHG emissions trajectory .......................................................................... 27 Figure 3-2: Illustration of Uganda’s economy-wide mitigation contribution .......................................... 28 Figure 3-3: Comparison of Full Economy Wide and Unconditional NDC Targets ................................ 29 Figure 3-4: AFOLU baseline and annual targets under the conditional mitigation scenario ................ 33 Figure 3-5: Energy sector baseline and annual targets under the mitigation scenario ........................ 37 Figure 3-6: Transport baseline and annual targets under the NDC scenario ....................................... 41 Figure 3-7: Waste sector baseline and annual targets under the NDC scenario ................................. 44 Figure 3-8: IPPU sector baseline and annual targets under the NDC scenario ................................... 46 iii List of Tables Table 1-1: Temperature and Precipitation Projections up to 2100 ......................................................... 5 Table 2-1: Results from the vulnerability and risk assessment, by sector ............................................ 14 Table 2-2: Updated Priority Sectors for Adaptation .............................................................................. 15 Table 2-3: Priority Adaptation Actions for Ecosystems Sector ............................................................. 16 Table 2-4: Priority Adaptation Actions for Water and Sanitation Sector ............................................... 17 Table 2-5: Priority Adaptation Actions for Transport Sector ................................................................. 18 Table 2-6: Priority Adaptation Actions for Energy Sector ..................................................................... 19 Table 2-7: Priority Adaptation Actions for Agriculture Sector ................................................................ 20 Table 2-8: Priority Adaptation Actions for Fisheries Sector .................................................................. 21 Table 2-9: Priority Adaptation Actions for Forestry Sector .................................................................... 21 Table 2-10: Priority Adaptation Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction .................................................... 22 Table 2-11: Priority Adaptation Actions for Cities and Built Environment ............................................. 23 Table 2-12: Priority Adaptation Actions for Health Sector .................................................................... 24 Table 2-13: Priority Adaptation Actions for Manufacturing, Industrial Processing and Mining ............. 25 Table 2-14: Priority Adaptation Actions for Education Sector ............................................................... 25 Table 2-15: Priority Adaptation Actions for Tourism Sector .................................................................. 26 Table 3-1: Sectoral coverage of the mitigation component of the NDC ............................................... 27 Table 3-2: Uganda's Conditional and Unconditional Mitigation Contribution ........................................ 28 Table 3-3: Mitigation potential of the priority mitigation policies and measures ................................... 29 Table 3-4: AFOLU Mitigation Policies and Measures ........................................................................... 30 Table 3-5: Shows additional mitigation actions ..................................................................................... 33 Table 3-6: Mitigation actions in Energy sub-sector ............................................................................... 34 Table 3-7: Mitigation measures for electricity generation ..................................................................... 35 Table 3-8: Mitigation measure for Charcoal production ........................................................................ 35 Table 3-9: Mitigation measure for Industrial Energy use ...................................................................... 36 Table 3-10: Mitigation measure for Commercial/Institutional Energy use ............................................ 36 Table 3-11: Mitigation measures for Residential Energy use ............................................................... 36 Table 3-12: Additional Mitigation actions .............................................................................................. 37 Table 3-13: Main mitigation actions to be implemented in the Transport sector in 2030 ..................... 38 Table 3-14: Transport mitigation measures by sub-sectors .................................................................. 39 Table 3-15: Additional mitigation measures .......................................................................................... 42 Table 3-16: Main mitigation Policies and Measures ............................................................................. 43 Table 3-17: Waste mitigation measures by sub-sectors ....................................................................... 44 Table 3-18: Additional mitigation measures under the Waste sector ................................................... 45 Table 3-19: Mitigation measures under IPPU sector ............................................................................ 46 iv Abbreviations and Acronyms BAU Business as usual BUR Biennial Update Report BFP Budget Framework Paper CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CCD Climate Change Department CDM Clean Development Mechanism EAPP East African Power Pool EF Emission Factor FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GoU Government of Uganda HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons HPP Hydropower plant ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability INDC Intended Nationally Determined Commitments IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency LDC Least Developed Country LEAP Low emissions analysis platform LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LTS Long-Term Strategy MACC Marginal Attribution Cost Curve MAP Mean Annual Precipitation MCA Multi-criteria Analysis MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification MWE Ministry of Water and Environment NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action NAP National Adaptation Plan v NBSAPII National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan II 2015 - 2025 NDC Nationally Determined Contribution ND-GAIN Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative NDP National Development Plan RCP Relative Concentration Pathway REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation SCP-HAT Sustainable Consumption and Production Hotspot Analysis Tool SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SLCPs Short-Lived Climate Pollutants SNAP Supporting National Action & Planning (SNAP) SSPs Shared Socioeconomic Pathways TBD To Be Determined UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID United States Association for International Development USD United States Dollar VA Vulnerability Assessment WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development WRI World Resources Institute vi Introduction and Background In October 2015, Uganda submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in accordance with decisions 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20 of the UNFCCC and after ratification of the Paris Agreement on 21st September 2016, the INDC became Uganda’s first NDC. The Republic of Uganda signed the Paris Agreement in October 2015 and ratified it on the 21st of September 2016. In pursuant to decision 1/CP.21 paragraph 24, Uganda committed to update its first NDC and on 30th April 2019 and a roadmap to update the first NDC was launched. Uganda through the Ministry of Water and Environment (Climate Change Department) with support from the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) of the NDC Partnership through partners – UNDP, GIZ, UNEP, IRENA, RCCC and ICLEI Africa facilitated the formulation of the updated NDC which embraced the whole -of government and of whole -of -society gender responsive approach where various categories – youth, women groups among others fully participated in a bottom-up approach. The updated NDC is aligned with the Vision 2040 and the third National Development Plan (NDP III) 2020/21 – 2024/25. The updated NDC has been informed by the National Climate Change Act, 2021, the National Climate Change Policy, 2015, the Uganda Green Growth Development Strategy, 2017/18 – 2030/31, Uganda NDC Partnership Plan 2018 – 2020, the Stock-take report of Uganda’s NDC and other related policies, plans and strategies. The updated NDC has been harmonized with the development of Uganda’s Long-term Climate Strategy 2050. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the hybrid mode of participation through regional workshops, youth and civil society consultations enabled the identification of various climate actions which were discussed and prioritised by policy makers during the sectoral consultations which ensured alignment with overarching national planning and budgeting frameworks. Developing gender responsive NDC with measurable targets is essential to improving performance in climate action. Identifying the gender equity in targets NDC aim to achieve - along with the concrete actions needed to achieve the targets and the required indicators to measure progress - are essential steps for addressing challenges related to climate change and gender equality. Furthermore, there is considerable evidence and broad international consensus that advancing gender equity helps reduce poverty, supports inclusive growth and other general development outcomes, and enhances the effectiveness and sustainability of development initiatives. However, without explicit targets, and actions to ensure gender equality and equity, the needs of the marginalised and disadvantaged continue to be overlooked. During the process of developing this NDC, gender sensitivity of the NDC adaptation and mitigation actions and targets has been ensured through the selection and prioritization processes utilized in developing this NDC (see Appendix A), and further gender mainstreaming will be done in the NDC implementation plan 1 Structure of the Updated NDC This updated NDC is an articulation of Uganda’s mitigation and adaptation contributions towards the implementation (aspirations) objectives of the Paris Agreement in 2030. The updated NDC sets out targets, measures and actions which prescribe the domestic contributions aimed at achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The updated NDC is structured in the following chapters: • Chapter 1: National Circumstances – describes the context of Uganda’s updated NDC, information on the country’s geography; climate; population; an overview on economic situation; an assessment of the impacts and vulnerabilities; and relevant climate change policies, institutions, and regulatory frameworks. • Chapter 2: Adaptation Component of the NDC – highlights adaptation planning, priorities, gaps, and outlines the priority adaptation actions and targets to be implemented. • Chapter 3: Mitigation Component of the NDC – describes baseline emission projection, emissions scenarios, mitigation targets in sectors of AFOLU, Energy, Transport, Waste and Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) as well as mitigation actions and measures to be implemented in contribution towards the achieving the set-out economy-wide emission reduction target. • Chapter 4: Means of Implementation – highlights climate financing needs for implementation of the updated NDC, financing mechanism, capacity-building and technology needs. 2 1 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

1.1 Geography, Climate, and Emissions Profile Geography Uganda is a Least Developed Country located in East Africa. It occupies an area of 241,555 square kilometres, with water bodies. Climate Uganda’s climate is largely tropical with most parts of the country experiencing bi-modal rainy seasons per year expect for northern region and is largely influenced by Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) systems. Rainfall in Uganda is experienced during two distinct periods annually: the ‘short’ rains from October to December and the ‘long’ rains from March to May. For climatological period 1991- 2020, the total annual average precipitation was 1,197 mm, and mean monthly precipitation of the country varies from 39.6 mm in January to 152.7 mm in April (World Bank Group, 2021)1. Figure 1-1 below presents the observed spatial distribution of average annual precipitation and temperature. Climate Change Country Profile for Uganda shows a statistically significant decreasing trend in the annual rainfall. This has particular significance for the large proportion of the population that are dependent on agriculture, but also in terms of impacts on water availability, fluctuating lake levels and could also impact on the production of hydropower among the several potential impacts. The country experiences moderate temperatures ranging from 25°C – 29°C on average. Since 1950, average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade. The increasing temperatures have resulted in increased trends in the frequency of hot days and nights (UNMA, 2019 State of Climate Report). Figure 1-1: Average annual temperature (left); annual precipitation (right), 1991–20202 1 https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/uganda/climate-data-historical 2 WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021). Uganda. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/uganda 3 The IPCC 6th assessment report (AR6) has noted that human-induced climate change already affects many weather and climate extremes in every region globally (IPCC, 2021). Warming trends observed in recent decades are projected to continue over the 21st century and over most land regions at a rate higher than the global average. The AR6 report also confirmed that there is a likelihood of increasing climate change risks, particularly for Africa where the increase since the previous studies was the greatest (IPCC, 2021). Figure 1-2 shows the latest scenarios for annual temperatures, precipitation and rainfall intensity for Africa. Figure 1-2: Future climate change scenarios for Africa – median impacts by 2100 Source: (IPCC, 2021) 4 Figure 1-3: Projected Mean Temperature and Precipitation for Uganda The projections in figure 1-3 show that both temperature and precipitation are expected to increase in Uganda. However, there is still a wide range of possible scenarios and uncertainty, particularly for rainfall. The projections illustrated in Figure 2-3 are consistent with the findings of the AR5 and are based on the CMIP6 emissions scenarios used in the IPCC AR6. In comparison to previous AR’s scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the AR6 used five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that provide a broader view of scenarios without future climate policy (Business As Usual), with global warming in 2100 ranging from 3.1 °C to 5.1 °C above pre-industrial levels. Since the publication of AR53 (IPCC, 2014), the country has conducted several climate analyses. As part of the LTS formulation and NDC update process, the existing climate scenarios were reviewed and a synthesis of results is presented in Table 1.1 below. Table 1-1: Temperature and Precipitation Projections up to 2100 2050 2100 Variables RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Temperature 1.5 to 2.5 0.5 to 1 °C 1.4 to 2 °C 1.8 to 3 °C 1 to 1.5 °C 3 to 5 °C anomaly °C Rainfall -10 mm -10 mm -10 mm -10 mm -10 mm -20 mm Additionally, under the Third National Communication (TNC-Uganda) climate analysis reveals that Uganda’s mean temperature has been significantly changing at the rate of 0.03 0C per decade, with a significant level of 99.8% for the period 1951 to 2020, 99.9% for the period 1971 to 2020, and 87.6% for the period 1991 to 2020. The minimum temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.03 0C for the periods of 1951 to 2020 and 1971 to 2020, and 0.020C for the period of 1991 to 2020, while the maximum temperature has increased at a rate of 0.030C for the same periods, with a significance level of above 85%. The annual rainfall totals have been decreasing at the rate of 10.3 mm per decade for the periods 1951 to 2020 and 1971 to 2020 with a significant level of over 95% and decreased by 3.58 mm for the period 1971 to 2020 with no significance. The spatial trend of annual rainfall 3 IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Fifth Assessment. . https://ar5 syr.ipcc.ch/topic_summary.php#node145. 5 for the same period reveals that the mean annual rainfall exhibits significant increasing trends at a 95% level of confidence over most parts of the eastern, north-eastern, and patches of the south-western regions of Uganda, with decreasing trends experienced over the north-western, central west, and western parts of the country (UNMA 2020). The mean annual temperature projections indicate an increase from 1 to 1.50C under low, moderate, and high greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 for most parts of the country, while RCP 8.5 projects an increase in temperature of 1.5 to 3 0C relative to the 1981-2010 average for most parts of the country. The mean total annual rainfall, unlike temperature, does not show a similar pattern across the country, whereas in some areas, rainfall is projected to increase and in others rainfall is projected to decrease. Under RCP 2.6, much of the country's rainfall is not expected to change significantly by mid-century as compared to the 1981–2010 average, apart from the Masindi, Hoima area (mid-western Uganda), and Karamoja (north-eastern) regions, where rainfall is projected to decrease by 5 to 10% relative to the baseline. Under RCP 4.5, no significant changes are also projected across the country, with only the South Western highlands projected to have an increase in rainfall of between 5 and 10% relative to the baseline. In contrast, Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the mean annual rainfall by mid-century is expected to decrease by 5 to 15% in most parts of central Uganda and increase by 5 to 10% in south- western. Uganda’s GHG Emissions Profile Uganda’s GHG emissions have slowly increased from 53.4 MtCO2e in 2005 to 90.1 MtCO2e in 2015 (Figure 2-4). The Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry category was dominant, accounting for 59.5% (53.6 MtCO2e) of the total emissions. The Land sector was estimated to be a source of emissions instead of a sink. Agriculture is the second largest, contributing 26.9%, followed by energy (10.7%) and waste (2.3%). The Industrial processes and product use (IPPU) sector accounted for the least emissions. 6 Figure 1-4: Sectoral trends in GHG emissions for Uganda

1.2 Socio-economic Trends Population The population of Uganda has grown from 12.6 million people in 1980 to 34.6 million people in 2014. It is projected that the population will reach 57 million and 72 million in 2030 and 2040 respectively (Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2020)4. The average annual growth rate over the last 10 years has been less than 3%. Uganda’s population pyramid has a broad base, indicating a very young population and Uganda had the second highest dependency ratio (ratio of non-working age population to working age population) in the world in 2014 (Hausmann et al., 2014)5, but this has been declining and in 2019 Uganda moved down to the seventh highest in the world. The population is evenly split between males and females. 4 11_2020STATISTICAL__ABSTRACT_2020.pdf (ubos.org) 5Hausmann, R., Cunningham, B., Matovu, J.M., Osire, R. and Wyett, K., 2014. How should Uganda grow? Paper Series No. RWP14-004. Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University. 7 80 72.79 70 64.87 60 57.03 Population (million) 50 49.41 42.37 40 36.16 34.86 30 24.23 20 16.67 12.64 10 0 1980 1991 2002 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Actual Projected Figure 1-5: Actual and projected population in Uganda (Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2020) The total working population was estimated at 15 million in 2016/17 with 51% of workers being female with 39% of the working population involved in subsistence agriculture. The unemployment rate was estimated at 9.2% (Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2020). Urbanisation Urbanisation has been occurring steadily in Uganda, at an estimated rate of 19%. The country has one of the highest urban population growth rates in the world (5.4%). Projections anticipate that urbanisation at the current pace would result in an urban population of more than 20 million by 2040, and 32 million by 2050. Other secondary urban areas are also beginning to attract rural migrants to the cities. Typically, secondary cities are trading and service centres, with some Agro-processing activities. Urbanisation is an opportunity to improve waste management through the installation of more centralised waste treatment centres. Even though 65% of new jobs being created are in urban centres, urban areas have not been effective at inducing formal wage growth and job creation due to the large informal sector. Uganda has a dual economy with the informal sector contributing a significant share to the GDP (51%). The private sector is dominated by micro, small and medium enterprises, which employ about 2.5 million people. The size and strength of the informal economy creates a lot of competition, which constrains the size of the formal enterprises. The inadequate quality transport infrastructure also hinders the connection between cities and external markets. The growing population, urbanisation, industrialisation and technology advancements have contributed to a change in the composition of waste (NPA 2017). The bio-degradable organic waste contribution has been declining, while plastic and paper waste have been increasing. In addition, the new waste profile indicates an increase in electronic waste, chemical waste, oil and gas waste and other hazardous waste. There is high solid waste generation in urban areas of approximately 0.56 kg/person/day. Urban solid waste is mainly organic (green and food waste) and accounts for 72% while plastics and paper waste accounted for 12.4% and 10.2% respectively. 8 Agriculture Agriculture is an important part of Uganda’s economy and over 71.8% of the land area is under cultivation. Subsistence farming covers the largest portion as compared to commercial cultivation (FAO, 2016). The country's agricultural productivity trends show a mixed picture, with increasing maize, rice, millet, simsim, cassava, and sweet potato yields and decreasing cotton, coffee, and banana yields, as well as increasing cattle, sheep, goats, and poultry numbers and products, and a gradual decline in fish stocks (Situation Analysis Study for Agriculture Sector 2020). Generally, agricultural productivity is declining due to increasing soil degradation. Forest According to Forest Resources Assessment (FRA), the forest area covers 11.66% of the total land area of Uganda and is declining due to deforestation at an annual rate of 1.44% (FRA, 2020)6. Deforestation has remained the primary cause of the decline in forest cover from 24% in 1990 to 10% in 2017. Private land forest cover has shrunk from 16% to 4% of the total national land area, while protected forests have shrunk from 8% to 6%. Outside of protected areas (PAs), forest cover declined from 67% in 1990 to 38% in 2017. Water Uganda has a large water resource, both surface and groundwater. However, national access to safe water stood at 67% in 2020, with access in rural areas at 68% and urban areas at 70.5%. About 43% of households have only limited or no access to safe drinking water (Figure 2-6). In rural areas this is over 51%. Due to seasonal and inter annual variability in rainfall, and limited storage capacity, particularly in rural areas the availability of water for productive purposes is also limited and uncertain. For sanitation, only 20% of population have access to basic sanitation services and 45% of the population have no hand washing facilities at home which presents a significant health risk. 6 Report 2020 Uganda Wood & Forest Resources Accounts.indd (ubos.org) 9 Water, sanitation and hygiene ladders Drinking water Sanitation Hygiene 100 1 100 2 5 6 7 5 6 100 12 14 14 80 30 80 80 37 45 48 27 31 58 Population (%) Population (%) Population (%) 60 36 60 67 60 No data No data No data No data No data No data No data No data No data 39 27 40 40 40 40 32 34 41 17 20 43 10 20 20 36 2 29 20 23 18 17 16 8 0 0 0 National Rural Urban National* Rural Urban* National Rural Urban Safely managed Safely managed Basic service Basic service Basic service Limited service Limited service Limited service No service Unimproved Unimproved Surface water Open defecation *No safely managed estimate available Drinking water Sanitation Hygiene Uganda National Rural Urban National* Rural Urban* National Rural Urban 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Safely managed 17 8 43 - 16 - - - - Basic service 40 41 36 20 2 29 23 18 36 Limited service 27 31 14 17 10 39 32 34 27 Unimproved 12 14 7 58 67 30 - - - No service 5 6 1 5 6 2 45 48 37 Source: WHO/UNICEF JMP (2021) Figure 1-6: Summary of Water, Sanitation and Health data for Uganda (WHO/UNICEF JMP, 2021) Wetlands Wetlands are a critical part of Uganda’s natural resources since they do not only provide wetland ecosystem services such as water supply, water treatment, flood protection, fuel, and construction materials, but also a source of employment. Wetlands are declining and degradation is increasing, with the main drivers being population explosion, expansion of land for agriculture, socio-economic pressures, and industrial development. Wetland coverage in 2020 was 8.9%, down from 10.9% in 2014. Energy Uganda is a rich country in terms of energy resources which include hydropower, biomass, solar, geothermal, wind, oil and gas. However, the country’s energy potential has not been fully harnessed. To ensure a sustainable electricity supply, the country has created a conducive regulatory environment and incentives aimed at diversifying the country’s energy generation mix. The total installed generation capacity has grown from 60 MW in 1954 to 1,267.2 MW as of 2020 (MEMD, 2020). Biomass continues to play an important part in Uganda's economy, accounting for more than 89% of total primary consumable energy. 10

1.3 Policy, Legal and Institutional Framework As part of the country’s commitment under the UNFCCC, Uganda has continued to develop a number of policies, strategies and plans to address climate change and its impacts as well as strengthening its legal and institutional framework. Policy Framework Uganda Vision 2040 is the country's ambitious long-term development blueprint. The vision recognises that climate change affects all sectors of the economy. As such, the vision provides for the integration of climate change governance into development planning. It aims to transform Uganda from a predominantly low-income country to a competitive upper middle- income country. The country has so far developed 3 consecutive National Development Plans (NDP) to implement vision 2040. The NDP III's Program 9: Natural resources, environment, climate change, land and water management recognizes the importance of addressing climate-related disasters by promoting inclusive, climate-resilient, and low-emissions development at all levels. Uganda developed the National Climate Change Policy in 2015 to guide efforts towards achieving Vision 2040 and moving towards low-carbon development. The policy aims to ensure that stakeholders address climate change impacts and causes through appropriate measures while promoting sustainable development and a green economy. The policy emphasizes climate change adaptation as the top priority for Uganda, given that the country’s greenhouse gas emissions are still relatively very low and yet the country is experiencing climate change risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities. Additionally, the country has developed other policies, plans and strategies that are relevant to addressing climate change challenge such as; National Disaster Preparedness and Management Policy, 2010; National Agricultural Policy, 2013; Renewable Energy Policy, 2007; National Forestry Policy, 2001; National Irrigation Policy, 2017, National Health Policy, 2010; National Land Policy, 2013; and Uganda non- motorised transport policy, 2013 among others. The country has also developed the following strategies: Uganda Green Growth Development Strategy 2017/18-2030/31; Uganda National Climate Change Communication Strategy 2017-2021; the Strategic Program for Climate Resilience, 2017; the National REDD+ Strategy, and Action Plan, 2017; National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan II 2015 -2025; Uganda Sustainable Land Management Strategic Investment Framework (2010-2020); the Climate Smart Agriculture. Program (2015 – 2025). Among the plans, Uganda developed the Forest Investment Plan, 2017 and the National Adaptation Plan for Agriculture, 2018; and Uganda NDC Partnership Plan, 2018 among others. National Climate Change Act, 2021 Uganda developed and enacted the National Climate Change Act 2021 to give force of law to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The Act provides for climate change mechanisms, including compliance, emissions trading mechanisms, as well as measurement of greenhouse gas emissions reductions and removal. The Act provides for the 11 national reference level, which includes the national base year and targets for the reduction of GHG emissions to be prescribed by the Minister responsible for climate change in consultation with the policy committee. The Act also provides for climate change financing as well as incentives for those involved in implementing response measures for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Institutional Framework Uganda has put in place institutional arrangements for coordination, supervision, regulation, and management of all activities related to climate change. The Ministry of Water and Environment, Climate Change Department is the mandated institution for coordination, monitoring, and evaluation of national programs and actions on climate change and ensures that the country meets its obligations and realizes benefits under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. The National Climate Change Act, 2021 provides for other institutions, which include: The Policy Committee on Environment, mandated with the role of advising the department and lead agencies on implementation of the Act and the National Climate Change Policy; the National Climate Change Advisory Committee, mandated with the responsibility of providing independent technical advice to the policy committee on environment and the minister. The Act also stipulates the responsibilities of the Lead Agencies, the District Natural Resources Department, and District Committees responsible for climate change, as well as lower local government committees responsible for climate change.

1.4 The NDC Update Process Uganda undertook the process of updating its first NDC in pursuance of paragraph 24 of Decision 1/CP.21 to update the NDC by 2020. In April 2019, Uganda launched the update process under the leadership of the Ministry of Water and Environment/Climate Change Department with support from the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) of the NDC Partnership implemented by partners: UNDP; GIZ; IRENA; UNEP; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, IUCN and ICLEI Africa. The update process was informed by a stocktake of NDC implementation that highlighted the performance of the first NDC and emerging issues, which included unclear methodological approaches for estimating and accounting for GHG emissions and lack of adaptation and mitigation sectoral targets, among others. The NDC update process involved: broadening the scope of sectors of the first NDC; defining adaptation targets, vulnerability index, and resilience indicators; updating quantified mitigation targets in the context of progression and ambition; development of sectoral emission targets; and improving methods, data, and information quality. Uganda used a set of tools to project its GHG emission trajectory, taking into account the country’s vision 2040, which included the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP), Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM) and Excel models based on methodological assumptions and data in the FBUR for Uganda. The NDC update process undertook a whole -of -government engagement and whole of society approach involving youth, women, the private sector, and civil society. Updating was conducted simultaneously with the development of the Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LTS), benefitting from joint modelling, assessments, progressive reviews, and stakeholder consultation for proper alignment. The updated NDC actions and measures were subjected to a multi-criteria analysis and a detailed gender analysis. 12 2 ADAPTATION COMPONENT OF THE UPDATED NDC

2.1 Introduction Climate risks pose serious threats to Uganda's key economic sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, fisheries, tourism, and health, which are dependent and sensitive to climate variability and change. Climate change has severe direct and indirect impacts on the ecosystems, livelihoods, and economic development in Uganda. The National Risk and Vulnerability Atlas of Uganda identifies droughts, floods, landslides, windstorms, hailstorms, lightning, as the major climate-induced hazards. Adaptation Planning in Uganda Uganda is gradually improving adaptation readiness and actions to address the impacts of climate change. In 2007, a National Adaptation Program of Actions (NAPA) was developed and submitted to the UNFCCC, which identified the urgent and immediate actions to respond to climate change. As part of the adaptation planning processes, in 2016, Uganda communicated her first NDC with an adaptation component; in 2017, Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) was developed; in 2018, formulated a National Adaptation Plan for the Agriculture Sector (NAP Ag) and in 2021, initiated a process for the preparation of an Adaptation Communication. Uganda is moving towards medium-to-long-term planning for adaptation. Since 2021, the country has initiated the formulation of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to strengthen adaptation planning, governance, and coordination; develop tools for adaptation planning; and secure finance for adaptation. The country has established a National Adaptation Technical Working Group to guide and support the NAP process and overall adaptation planning. However, Uganda's adaptation effort faces several challenges, including but not limited to inadequate local level climate adaptation financing, inadequate individual and institutional capacity, limited access to international climate finance, and support for technology and capacity-building. Overview of Climate Risks and Vulnerability As part of the NDC update process, Uganda conducted a comprehensive climate change risk and vulnerability assessment. Uganda's climate is highly variable and changing, according to the assessment, and the country is rated highly vulnerable, with a high degree of exposure, sensitivity, and low adaptive capacity. The vulnerability and risk assessment ratings are presented in the table 2-1. 13 Table 2-1: Results from the vulnerability and risk assessment, by sector Sector Vulnerability Rating Risk Rating Agriculture (crop and livestock) 4.07 4.18 Built Infrastructure 3.27 3.83 Business 3.75 4.00 Energy (Excluding transport) 3.40 3.40 Fisheries 3.00 4.00 Forestry 3.25 4.25 Health 3.67 3.33 Manufacturing 3.00 3.00 Mining and Quarrying 3.00 4.00 Transport 3.20 3.80 Water 4.63 4.75 Ecosystems 5.00 5.00 The vulnerability and risk scores were provided as 1= (least vulnerable, less risk) to 5= (most vulnerable, high risk). Climate change is impacting and is projected to impact physical infrastructure, food security, water resources, agriculture, energy, health, and ecosystems. An assessment of the economic impacts of climate change in Uganda indicated that adaptation inaction could result in annual costs rising in the range of USD 3.2–5.9 billion within a decade. Even if there were no further increases in climate impacts, the cost of inaction would rise over time because of other factors such as increase in population. Priority Sectors for Adaptation. The vulnerability and risk assessment indicated that the priority sectors for adaptation in Uganda remain ecosystems, water, agriculture, and forestry. These were also identified as priority sectors in the initial NDC. However, there is significant risk in other sectors, particularly the Fisheries sub-sector, Manufacturing and Mining, the Cities and Built environment, Transport, and Health. With a high dependency on hydropower, the Energy sector is also at risk due to climate variability and change in rainfall and water availability. For all sectors, a significant cross-cutting issue remains the disaster risk sector, which has also been identified as a priority area for adaptation globally. Table 2-2 Compares the priority sectors for adaptation in the initial NDC to the priority sectors for adaptation in the updated NDC. 14 Table 2-2: Updated Priority Sectors for Adaptation Priority Adaptation Sectors in the initial Priority Adaptation Sectors in the Updated NDC NDC Agriculture Environment and Ecosystems Forestry Water and Sanitation Water Agriculture Infrastructure Forestry Energy Fisheries Health Energy Risk Management Transport Manufacturing, Industrial Processes and Mining Cities and the Built Environment Tourism Education Health Disaster Risk Reduction As part of the LTS formulation and NDC update process, thirteen (13) pillars were identified to transform Uganda into a climate- resilient and low-carbon society by 2050 that is prosperous and inclusive”. The strategic pillars include: 1. Promote climate-resilient and low-carbon agricultural development 2. Promote and apply land management practices that support sustainable and productive use 3. Promote climate-resilient water supply systems, increase water supply capacity and use efficiency. 4. Promote sustainable management of ecosystems and the use of nature-based solutions, including through community engagement 5. Strengthen climate information services through improved data collection and sharing infrastructure 6. Develop and promote a clean and resilient energy system 7. Promote climate resilient and low-carbon urban planning and development 8. Increase availability and promote access to finance for climate-resilience, low-carbon investments and climate impacts recovery 9. Promote education and training on climate change science, and sharing of indigenous knowledge 10. Mainstream and institutionalize climate change responses in policies, plans, programmes and budgets at all levels of governance 11. Promote a multimodal shift to low carbon mobility and create climate-resilient transport infrastructure to support economic growth 12. Promote a resource-efficient circular economy 13. Further develop a resilient and “fit for future” health systems 15

2.2 Priority Adaptation Actions and Targets In this updated NDC, Uganda maintains adaptation as the priority response measure to addressing climate change. In this context, the country will continue to address adaptation in key vulnerable sectors and build adaptive capacity at all levels, address loss and damage, and increase resilience at the grassroots level. Additionally, while in the initial NDC, priority adaptation actions lacked specific targets, in this updated NDC, adaptation interventions and actions have been assigned sectoral indicators and targets drawn from NDP III and other relevant policies and strategies, for example, energy, transport, cities, lands, water, and environmental sectors, as well as other related plans, such as the national adaptation plan for agriculture, the budget framework paper for the financial year 2022/23 to 2026/27 and alignment to the Long Term Climate Strategy (LTS). Table 2-3: Priority Adaptation Actions for Ecosystems Sector Sector: Ecosystems Outcome: Enhanced ecosystems resilience Priority 2025 2030 Target Sub-sector actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Wetlands, Enhance Wetlands 8.9% 9.57% 12% NDP III peatlands wetlands coverage riverbanks management Area of 16,906 55,906 70,000 NDPIII_NRE and and restore wetlands CCLWM lakeshores peatlands, restored (ha) PIAP,GCF riverbanks Wetlands and lake Project shores KM of wetland 700 4,100 TBD NDPIII_NRE boundaries CCLWM demarcated PIAP Area of TBD TBD TBD Peatlands restored (ha) Area degraded 200 1,550 TBD BFP riverbanks and lakeshores restored and maintained (ha) Mountain Protect and Area of 1,250 7,500 10,0000 NDPIII_NRE ecosystems restore degraded hilly CCLWM mountain and PIAP, ecosystem mountainous Sustainable areas restored Mountain (ha) Development Strategy for Uganda 2016 Rangelands Protect Level of 0% TBD TBD SLM manage and implementation Strategic restore (%) of the Investment rangeland Rangeland Framework Management and Pastoralist Policy 16 Biodiversity Enhance Level of TBD TBD TBD NBSAP II biodiversity implementation conservation of climate and actions in management National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan II & III Share of TBD TBD TBD NBSAP II biodiversity contribution to national wealth No. of people TBD TBD TBD NBSAP II benefiting from Ecosystem- Based Adaptation (EbA) interventions/ projects. Table 2-4: Priority Adaptation Actions for Water and Sanitation Sector Sector: Water and Sanitation Outcome: A climate-resilient water and sanitation sector Priority Sub- Adaptation 2025 2030 Target sector Actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Ensure National (rural) water WESIP 68% 76% 100% resilient supply access to National (urban) WESIP 71% 90% 100% water supply water supply for domestic NDPIII and Gender and No of Solar/wind productive Equity powered water supply 70 320 620 purposes. Commitment systems constructed for NRECCLWM Promote Water for Production BFP 2022/23 42 MCM 62 MCM TBD sustainable storage capacity -25/26 water Technology harvesting Actions Plan Rain Water and storage TBD TBD TBD for harvesting tanks Adaptation (TAP) Increase to Population with BFP 2022/23 sanitation and access to basic 18% 25% 68% -25/23 wastewater sanitation treatment Population with NDPIII 36% 50% TBD handwashing facilities 17 infrastructure Annual Sewer service and services 23% 31% Report 2020- coverage NWSC Scale-up Compliance with SPR and Integrated national water 61% 70% 80% WESIP Water standards Resources Abstraction Management (surface) 82% 86% NDPIII_PIAP approach and Water permit 78% use efficiency compliance Abstraction (ground 81% 86% NDPIII_PIAP water)76% Ambient water quality 0 8% 16% WESIP Catchment NDPIII_PIAP, management plans SDG 6.5 17 21 23 developed and report implemented Level of compliance of Catchment Management Plans 0 74 100 Constructed (CMPs) to climate change adaptation Table 2-5: Priority Adaptation Actions for Transport Sector Sector: Transport Outcome: A climate-resilient transport sector Sub- Priority sector Adaptation 2025 2030 Target actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Build climate- Paved National BFP 2022/23 4 971 7 600 TBD resilient roads, Roads (Kms) – 26/27 bridges, water, Paved urban roads 1 253 1848 TBD and Rail (Kms) BFP transport BFP Permanent way infrastructure 262 482 TBD /railway road (Kms) systems. Revise design Proportional of Estimated, codes, national road Annual regulations and reserves with green Report 1% 30% 50% guidelines to infrastructure and 2019/20 - climate proof vegetative UNRA strategic reinforcement transport No. of revised infrastructure transport regulations, guidelines and TBD TBD TBD design codes integrating climate risks 18 Table 2-6: Priority Adaptation Actions for Energy Sector Sector: Energy Outcome: A climate-resilient energy sector Sub- Priority sector Adaptation 2025 2030 Target actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Improve Proportion of the 24% in access and population with 60% 75% NDPIII 2020 utilization of access to electricity electricity from NDPIII Per capita electricity 100 kWh 145 sustainable 578 consumption in 2020 kWh sources. kWh Transmission capacity (in km of 2,354 km 4,354 high voltage 7 in 2019 km 6,300 NDPIII transmission lines) km Promote use of renewable energy sources Electricity generation 1,276.2 3,500 4,200 NDP III, and energy capacity MW MW MW efficient technologies Increase Increased share of access to clean energy for NDPIII 15% 50% 65% clean energy cooking cooking Share of biomass NDP III 50% technologies energy used for 88% 40% cooking Proportion of households and institutions using 1% 10% TBD efficient cooking technologies Rehabilitate Access to electricity 28% 60% 75% BFP, NDP III and climate High voltage 4,354 NDP III 2,354 km TBD proof electricity transmission lines km transmission 10,000 km BFP infrastructure of (medium voltage Renewable off-grid networks) TBD TBD energy solutions 15,000 km of (low voltage network) 19 Table 2-7: Priority Adaptation Actions for Agriculture Sector Sector : Agriculture Outcome: A climate resilient and sustainable agricultural sector. Sub-sector Priority adaptation 2025 2030 Target actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Crop. Scaling up Proportion of NAP, Budget climate smart farmers Framework Outcome: agriculture practicing Paper climate including agro- sustainable 70.7 31.7 51.2 resilient ecology land (Est.) cropping management systems and practices (%) value chains Strengthen Area under NAP water irrigation (ha) 152,622 harvesting and 19,776 28,934 (Est.) irrigation farming Promote TBD NAP development of climate resilient crop varieties (crop- diversification) Expand post- Share of NAP, Budget harvest post-harvest Framework handling, losses (%) paper 37 12 3 (Est.) storage, value addition and marketing Livestock Promote highly TBD NAP Outcome: adaptive and climate productive resilient livestock breeds livestock TBD TBD production systems and value chains strengthened Promote TBD NAP agricultural TBD TBD (livestock) diversification 20 Table 2-8: Priority Adaptation Actions for Fisheries Sector Sector: Fisheries Outcome: Increased- resilient Fisheries sector Priority Sub- adaptation 2025 2030 Target sector actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Fisheries Promote climate Volume of 567,000 1,200,000 1,700,000 Fisheries Bill resilient capture fish stock fisheries (tonnes/yr) Promote TBD TBD TBD TBD ecosystem approach to aquaculture management Table 2-9: Priority Adaptation Actions for Forestry Sector Sector: Forestry Outcome: Increased Forest Cover Sub- Priority sector adaptation 2025 2030 Target actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Promote Area under 107,608 307,000 407,608 SPGS, afforestation and planted National reforestation to forests Budget reduce Framework vulnerability of paper people and FIP ecosystems Encourage Area under TBD TBD 1.3 million Aichi agroforestry to agroforestr Biodiversity enhance nutrient y target 15 cycling and landscape integrated pest (ha) management Encourage Forest TBD 200,000 2.5 million Bonn sustainable landscape challenge forest restored management to (ha) enhance forest ecosystem function Promote use of No. of TBD TBD TBD Forestry non-timber people policy of forest products using 2001 (NTFPs) to NTFP diversify livelihoods and improve resilience of communities 21 Table 2-10: Priority Adaptation Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction Sector: Disaster Risk Reduction Outcome: Reduced disaster risk and losses Priority Sub- adaptation 2025 2030 Target sector actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Incorporate Proportion of National climate and LGs with Budget disaster risk climate action Framework reduction in plans (%) 0 10 50 paper planning, budgeting and reporting Expand climate Accuracy of Budget information meteorological Framework 70 90 TBD information paper (%) Build effective Automation of Budget early warning Weather and Framework 62 82 TBD systems Climate paper Network (%) Promote local, Application of TBD TBD TBD indigenous and ITK in DRR traditional (%) knowledge (ITK) and practices in disaster risk reduction Strengthen Policy policy linkage coherence and actions on and synergies climate change, on disaster migration and risk disaster risk management TBD 30% 50% reduction policy, national climate policy and migration policy 22 Table 2-11: Priority Adaptation Actions for Cities and Built Environment Sector: Cities and Built Environment Outcome: Climate resilient cities and urban areas Priority Sub- Adaptation 2025 2030 Target sector actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Promote Proportion of urban NDP III sustainable dwellers living in 58% 40% TBD urbanization slums and informal and housing. settlements Decreased urban NDP III unemployment 13.5% 9.4% TBD rate ( percent) Length of drainage KCCA Climate channels Change constructed/improved Strategy and 9 km 30 km 65 km in GKMA Kampala Drainage Master Plan No. of people benefiting from social TBD TBD TBD safe net Level of compliance to building codes and TBD TBD TBD standard for climate resilience Expand and Proportion of BFP 2022 maintain preserved cities with areas/parks in 3% 25% TBD greenbelts relation to total urban land area Promote Increased urban 7,740 NDP III 1,348 Km TBD efficient paved roads Km mobility in KM of NMT KCCA Climate cities (cycle/Pedestrian) Change 1.95 km 25 km TBD lane length Strategy constructed (GKMA) Improve solid No. of municipalities/ BFP 2022 waste cities with sustainable 10 23 TBD management waste management facilities Efficiency of solid 70% NDP III 33.2% 50.1% waste collection 23 Table 2-12: Priority Adaptation Actions for Health Sector Sector: Health Outcome: Sustainable resilient health sector Priority Sub- Adaptation 2025 2030 Target sector actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Integrate climate No. of climate considerations risk and into national vulnerability 0 1 2 NCCA 2021 health plans and assessments strategies conducted for health sector No of district climate health 0 10 30 profiles developed Health National Adaptation Plan 0 1 1 (NAP) developed Improve early Level of linkage warning, between the surveillance and emergency response medical call system for system with the 0 50% 100% BFP 2022 climate sensitive National health hazards Disaster response call system Strengthen No. of climate transformed resilience of National and health Regional 0 2 7 BFP infrastructure Referral and system Hospitals (Climate smart hospitals) Implement Level of 0 30% 50% integrated health implementation related climate of Health NAP interventions considering policies on water and sanitation, education, social protection and reproductive health care. 24 Table 2-13: Priority Adaptation Actions for Manufacturing, Industrial Processing and Mining Sector: Manufacturing, Industrial Processes and Mining Outcome: A Climate resilient Manufacturing, Industry and Mining sector Priority Sub- Adaptation 2025 2030 Target sector actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Scale-up Level of TNA report adoption of implementation of 2021. resource- Technology Action TBD TBD TBD Industrial efficient Plan for Adaptation Policy 2020 technologies Build No. of incubators capacity in established and 2 8 TBD BFP research and operationalized Innovation Promote No. of micro-, small circular and medium-sized economy enterprises that Green have adopted TBD TBD TBD Manufacturing the 6 Rs: Renew, Strategy Rethink, Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Recover Table 2-14: Priority Adaptation Actions for Education Sector Sector: Education Outcome: Informed citizens to address climate change Sub- 2025 2030 Target sector Priority actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Integrate climate Level of integration Uganda change education of climate change National into the national in the national Climate curriculum curriculum Change TBD 20% 60% (primary, Learning secondary and Strategy higher institutions and Action of learning) Plan Improve education No. of people Uganda and awareness trained on climate National raising on climate change Climate 650,000 4m 11 m change disaggregated by Change (30% (40% (49% gender Learning female) female) female) Strategy and Action Plan Develop No. of knowledge Knowledge systems integrating systems for local, indigenous 0 2 6 scaling up and traditional adaptation knowledge and practices 25 Table 2-15: Priority Adaptation Actions for Tourism Sector Sector: Tourism Outcome: A transformed green and resilient Tourism sector Sub- Priority 2025 2030 Target sector actions Indicator Baseline Target Target alignment Integrate No. of climate risk climate and vulnerability considerations assessments into national conducted for 0 1 2 NCCA 2021 tourism sector tourism sector plans and strategies Promote natural Proportion of Uganda and cultural/heritage National cultural/heritage sites accorded Commission conservation. protected areas TBD TBD TBD for UNESCO Strategic Plan Share of national Uganda budget allocated for National protection and Commission conservation of TBD TBD TBD for natural and heritage UNESCO sites Strategic Plan Establish and Km of wildlife UWA protect existing corridor TBD TBD TBD Strategic wildlife rehabilitated Plan corridors to No. of water strengthen the harvesting and resilience of storage facilities UWA wildlife against constructed for TBD TBD TBD Strategic climate risks drought adaptation Plan and hazards. in critical conservation areas. 26 3 MITIGATION COMPONENT OF THE UPDATED NDC

3.1 Economy-wide Contribution Uganda’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to increase from 90.1 MtCO2e in 2015 to 148.8 MtCO2e in 2030 and 235.7 MtCO2e by 2050 under the BAU Scenario. This is illustrated in figure 3-1 below. 250 1. Energy (Excl. Transport) 225 2. Transport 3. Industrial Processes & Product Use 200 4. Agriculture 5. Forestry and other land use 6. Waste 175 150 125 MtCO2e 100 75 50 25 0 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Figure 3-1: Uganda's BAU GHG emissions trajectory To mitigate these GHG emissions, Uganda intends to implement a suite of circular economy mitigation actions in the sectors and sub-sectors presented in the table 3-1 below. Table 3-1: Sectoral coverage of the mitigation component of the NDC Sector Sub-Sector Updated NDC Initial NDC Electricity generation Yes Yes No (included as additional Energy Transport Yes actions) Other energy Yes No Agriculture Yes Yes Forestry Yes Yes AFOLU Land Use Yes Yes Wetlands and Peatlands Yes Yes (except peatlands) Solid waste Yes No Waste Wastewater Yes No Mineral industry Yes No IPPU Product use Yes No 27 As shown in the table 3-1, two new sectors (Waste and IPPU) and six new sub-sectors (transport, other energy, Solid waste, Wastewater, mineral industry and product use) have been included to contribute to Uganda’s NDC target in this updated NDC. This is a result of sector prioritization that was done through a metabolic assessment. Based on the availability of financial, capacity building and technology support, Uganda will contribute conditionally and unconditionally to the global mitigation target as indicated in table 3-2 below. Table 3-2: Uganda's Conditional and Unconditional Mitigation Contribution Description Unconditional Conditional Full Economy wide Emissions reduction in

8.78 MtCO2e 27.97 MtCO2e 36.75 MtCO2e 2030 % Contribution / 5.9% of BAU 18.8% of BAU 24.7% of BAU reduction in 2030 When all the planned and intended mitigation policies and measures have been implemented (both unconditional and conditional), it is envisaged that Uganda’s net emissions will be reduced by 24.7% below the BAU level of 148.80 MtCO2e in 2030 totalling an absolute reduction of 36.75 MtCO2e in that year (See figure 3-2). 160 148.8 140 24.7% reduction below BAU 120 90.1 112.1 100 MtCO2e 80 60 40 20 - 2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 Energy (Stationary) - mitigation Transport mitigation IPPU mitigation AFOLU mitigation Waste mitigation Business-as-usual Figure 3-2: Illustration of Uganda’s economy-wide mitigation contribution 28 In consistency with the 2015 NDC, which highlighted the 22% reduction below BAU largely from AFOLU, in the updated NDC, AFOLU accounts for 20.43% reduction and the energy sector 1.57% reduction, while the newly added sub-sectors will contribute an additional 2.7% reduction from BAU (1.87% from transport, 0.74% from waste, and 0.09% from IPPU). Table 3-3 below presents the absolute mitigation contribution of each sector towards the full economy wide target. Table 3-3: Mitigation potential of the priority mitigation policies and measures Priority Mitigation Sector 2030 Mitigation Contribution (MtCO2e) Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Sector 30.4 MtCO2e Energy Sector (Excl. Transport) 2.34 MtCO2e Transport Sector 2.78 MtCO2e Waste Sector 1.10 MtCO2e Industrial Processes and Product Use Sector 0.14 MtCO2e TOTAL 36.76 MtCO2e If, as a result of inadequate financial, capacity-building and technology transfer support, it is envisaged that Uganda’s unconditional efforts will result into net emissions reductions of 5.9% below the BAU trajectory in 2030. Figure 3-3 below presents and compares the net GHG emission targets for Uganda’s unconditional and full economy wide NDC targets. 160 148.8 140 140.1 120 100 112.1 140.1 MtCO2e MtCO2e (5.89% below 80 BAU in 2030) 112.1 MtCO2e 60 (24.7% below BAU in 2030) Business-as-usual 40 UNCONDITIONAL NDC Target Trajectory 20 FULL ECONOMYWIDE NDC Target Trajectory - 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Figure 3-3: Comparison of Full Economy Wide and Unconditional NDC Targets 29

3.2 Priority Mitigation Measures and Targets In this updated NDC, Uganda intends to implement a number of prioritised mitigation policies and measures across electricity generation, transport, energy, agriculture, forestry and other land uses, wetlands and peatlands, solid waste, wastewater, mineral, and industrial processes and product use.

3.3 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector AFOLU sector is the greatest contributor to Uganda’s GHG emissions, especially due to deforestation for various reasons including energy use, agriculture and logging. In 2020 national deforestation rates stand were estimated at 1.44%. Uganda has committed to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 and to increase forest cover from an estimated 12.5% in 2020 to 15% in 2025 and 21% in 2030. In addition, the country launched a 40 million tree campaign on 2 March 2021, focussing on forest restoration using indigenous trees.

3.3.1 Priority Mitigation Policies and Measures In the AFOLU sector, the priority mitigation policies and measures are from REDD+ activities, based on the National REDD+ Strategy and Action Plan published in 2017 (MWE, 2017). These policies and measures are outlined in the table below. Table 3-4: AFOLU Mitigation Policies and Measures Sub- sectors Mitigation action Description and impact 1. Climate Smart Agriculture The measure will entail land use management practices, the 40 million-tree

1.1 Sustainable Land Use campaign and REDD+ strategic interventions Management and Agroforestry the will contribute to approximately 1.2 MtCO2e reduction by 2030. This measure will contribute to the achievement of the National Irrigation Policy (2017), which underscores 50% of irrigation potential by 2040. Investments will be in micro, medium and large-scale irrigation systems to mitigate

1.2 Rainwater harvesting and water shortages resulting from drought irrigation hazards. It is expected that the irrigation practice will reduce new farmland expansion and deforestation and promote solar-powered irrigation systems, contributing to about 1.6 MtCO2e reduction by 2030. This measure is expected to reduce GHG emissions by about 0.3 MtCO2e by 2030 in

1.3 Green house cultivation of rural and semi-urban households through soil Vegetables carbon build-up and reduce deforestation resulting from the need for agricultural land expansion. 30 Sub- sectors Mitigation action Description and impact 2. Sustainable fuelwood and commercial charcoal production The measure will support sustainable production of wood fuel in tree-based bioenergy woodlots all over Uganda.

2.1 Commercial small-holder and community bioenergy woodlots Full implementation of this measure will potentially reduce emissions to approximately 2.9 MtCO2e by 2030.

2.2. Commercial small-holder and The measure is expected to contribute to a community poles & timber reduction of GHG emissions of about 0.37 plantations (with coffee MtCO2e by 2030 through woodlots, and/or agroforestry) farm forestry practices. This measure aims to increase the uptake of efficient charcoal production technologies whilst contributing to the objective of the biomass energy strategy for Uganda, which aims at balancing the supply and demand for biomass energy. Traditional charcoal kilns

2.3. Improved charcoal kilns linked have a wood conversation efficiency of 12%. to bioenergy woodlots Implementing more efficient technologies could boost wood conversation efficiency from 12% in 2020 to 75% by 2030. Full implementation of the measure will contribute to a GHG emission reduction of approximately 3.37 MtCO2e by 2030. 3. Large scale commercial timber plantations The measure intends to reduce wood demand from natural forests by providing

3.1 Commercial transmission pole wood from tree plantations for poles and and timber plantations timber that will account for abatement potential of approximately 5 MtCO2e by 2030. The measure will enhance production of wood products, especially small poles,

3.2. Commercial pole and sawlog fuelwood, and charcoal, and has a carbon plantations emission abatement potential of approximately 5 MtCO2e by 2030. 4. Restoration of natural forests in the landscape The measure aims to rehabilitate 100,000 hectares of forest areas through collaborative

4.1. Natural forest regeneration forest management approaches and has a carbon emission abatement potential of about 0.3 MtCO2e by 2030. 31 Sub- sectors Mitigation action Description and impact This measure intends to restore natural forests in forest reserves and protected areas that have already lost their forest cover

4.2. Restoration of degraded through enrichment planting with indigenous protected natural forest tree species. It is envisaged that over 100,000 hectares of these lands will be restored. The measure will account for approximately 0.3 MtCO2e by 2030. 5. Energy Efficiency The measure aims to promote clean cooking solutions and biomass energy use efficiency technologies for fuel wood and charcoal Energy Efficient fuelwood and stoves among households and institutions charcoal stoves (education, hospitals, prisons, and industries, among others). The measure will reduce emissions by approximately 6.89 MtCO2e by 2030. 6. Livestock Management The measure aims to; promote improved cattle breeds and feeds, improve water availability for livestock through constructing Livestock management in the cattle water dams and valley tanks, and establish corridor fodder agroforestry plantations for zero grazing and stall-feeding. The measure will reduce emissions by approximately 2.9 MtCO2e by 2030. 7. Wetlands and Peatlands The measure aims to increase wetland coverage from 8.9% in 2020, to 9.57% in 2025, and approximately 12% by 2030 through the implementation of wetland Wetland and Peatland management management practices such as demarcation, gazettement, and restoration of degraded wetlands. The mitigation reduction potential for this measure is expected to account for

0.4 MtCO2e by 2030. 32

3.3.2 Targets for AFOLU Sector Under BAU conditions it is projected that AFOLU net emissions will reach 122.2 MtCO2e in 2030, while with the implementation of all the main mitigation measures envisaged above, it is projected that the net emissions in this sector will be reduced by 24.9% to 91.8 MtCO2e in 2030. This is illustrated in figure 10.3. The figure also presents the annual mitigation targets for the AFOLU sector. Figure 3-4: AFOLU baseline and annual targets under the conditional mitigation scenario

3.3.3 Additional Mitigation Actions Table 3-5: Shows additional mitigation actions Sub-sectors Mitigation Measure Description Forest smart mining landscape management The measure will promote conservation, 1. Land use and sustainable management, restoration and land use change Peatland Restoration. rewetting of peatlands to increase carbon storage capacity. In the Nile basin part of Uganda. NAMA for Livestock improved The NAMA seeks to contribute to GHG feed quality, supplement, and mitigation of 0.5 MtCO2e by 2030. manure management The NAMA seeks to; sustainably increase 2. Agriculture Climate-Smart Dairy agricultural milk productivity and incomes; Livestock Value Chains in adapt and build resilience to climate change Uganda along the milk production value chain; and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The NAMA seeks to increase rice production in Uganda by promoting cultivation of high Promote cultivation of high yielding upland rice as opposed to low land 3. Agriculture yielding upland rice. paddy rice in parts of Uganda where rice is a major crop, to address methane emissions from rice cultivations. 33

3.4 Energy Sector (Stationary) The Energy sector in Uganda consists of four sub-sectors; Industrial, Residential, Commercial/ Institutional, Agricultural and Fisheries. Residential subsector is the main consumer of energy in the country and it is followed by industries, commercial/institutional, agricultural and fisheries. Biomass is the primary source of energy in the country. Majority of the Ugandan population is rural-based and has limited access to the electricity grid. As a result, they depend on biomass for basic household energy needs. In 2005, direct combustion of fuel for energy use in the residential sector was approximately 369,000 TJ (Ministry of Water and Environment, 2019), of which the vast majority (almost 99.5%) was from biomass sources. The remainder (0.5%) was from liquid fuels (e.g., kerosene). In addition to energy from direct combustion, the residential sector also consumed 2,177 TJ of electricity. In 2015, direct combustion of fuel for energy in the industry sector was around 116,000 TJ, of which the vast majority (89%) was from biomass sources (Ministry of Water and Environment, 2019). The remainder (10%) was from liquid fuels (e.g., gas/diesel oil) and solid fuels (1%). In addition to energy from direct combustion, the industry sector also consumed approximately 5,700 TJ of electricity (data from 2015 energy balance). Similarly, direct combustion of fuel for energy in the commercial sector was around 19,000 TJ, of which the vast majority (almost 91.5%) was from biomass sources. The remainder (8.5%) was from liquid fuels. Production systems in the agriculture/forestry/fisheries subsector are the lowest consumers of energy in Uganda.

3.4.1 Main Mitigation Policies and Measures There are several mitigation measures envisaged to be put in place in the Energy sector in 2030. Mitigation actions that are identified from different national policies are listed for each sub-sector. Table 3-6: Mitigation actions in Energy sub-sector Sub-sectors Mitigation action Description and impact The measure aims to increase energy generation in Renewable energy the country by promoting renewable energy generation resources. This can lead emission reductions of approximately 0.0003 MtCO2e by 2030. The measure intends to reduce energy losses during transmission and distribution. This will improve Reduction in transmission Energy available energy in the country. This can lead and distribution losses generation emission reductions of approximately 0.00001 MtCO2e by 2030. The measure is aimed at improving efficiency of charcoal production which will have an impact of Improved efficiency of reducing deforestation in the forestry sector. This can charcoal production lead emission reductions of approximately 0.48 MtCO2e by 2030. The objective of this measure is to improve energy efficiency in the industrial sector and reduce Industrial Energy electricity consumption. Key consumers that are Energy use efficiency targeted are process heating and process cooling, motors and refrigeration. This can lead emission reductions of approximately 0.26 MtCO2e by 2030. 34 This measure is aimed at switching energy consumption in the industrial sector from biomass to Industrial Fuel switching renewable electricity. This can lead emission reductions of approximately 0.23 MtCO2e by 2030. This measure aims to increase electricity access of the households so that the household’s dependence Increased electricity on biomass can be reduced. This will reduce access for households deforestation. This can lead emission reductions of approximately 0.02 MtCO2e by 2030. The measure intends to introduce more energy efficient lighting technologies (CFLs, LEDs etc) and Lighting energy efficiency to replace lighting fuels (kerosene) with cleaner in households energy sources. This can lead emission reductions of approximately 0.003 MtCO2e by 2030. This measure aims to improve energy efficiency during cooking by adoption of efficient charcoal and Cooking mitigation fuelwood stoves and to change from using biomass measures, incl. energy as main source energy for cooking to the use of efficiency and fuel switch cleaner energy resources. This can lead emission reductions of approximately 1.09 MtCO2e by 2030.

3.4.1.1 Electricity Generation Table 3-7: Mitigation measures for electricity generation Measure Mitigation Measure Details Increased grid capacity and increased renewable energy generation. This consists of the following power generation capacity to come online between 2015 and 2030: • 756.8 MW of Hydro power (Nyamagasani 1 HPP, Nyamagasani 2 HPP, Muyembe HPP, Achwa 2 HPP, Karuma HPP, Kikagati HPP, 1. Renewable energy Kakaka HPP, Atari HPP, Kabeywa 1 HPP, Kabeywa 2 HPP, generation Nyabuhaka HPP, Simu HPP, Sisi HPP, Hoimo HPP, Igassa HPP, Kabasanja HPP, Tokwe HPP, Nsongya HPP, Katooke HPP, Nchwera HPP, Warugo HPP, Nyagak III HPP, Nyamwamba II HPP, Nyamabuye HPP, Sironko HPP, Kigwabaya HPP) • 25 MW of Baggase power (SCOUL Bagasse Plant) • 20 MW of Solar power (Xsabo Nkoge Solar), and • 20 MW of Wind power (Rupa Wind Power) 2. Reduction in Transmission and distribution loss projections to 2040 are considered transmission and (based on ERA Least Cost Generation Plan 2020-2030) distribution losses

3.4.1.2 Charcoal Production Table 3-8: Mitigation measure for Charcoal production Measure BAU Mitigation Measure Details Improved efficiency Remains constant from base year (90% 100% of charcoal to be made in of charcoal in normal kilns with efficiency of 20%, improved efficiency kilns in 2030 production 10% in improved with efficiency of 60%) 35

3.4.1.3 Industrial Energy Use Table 3-9: Mitigation measure for Industrial Energy use Measures Business as Usual NDC Scenario Details Energy efficiency Static efficiency 10% reduction from BAU by 2025 Same fuel mix as 2015, but with 25% of energy met by biomass from Fuel switching 8% of energy needs met by LPG sustainable sources in 2030, rising in 2025, rising to 12% by 2050 to 40% by 2040

3.4.1.4 Commercial/Institutional Energy Use Table 3-10: Mitigation measure for Commercial/Institutional Energy use Measures Business as Usual NDC Scenario Details 50% of schools/institutions to be Improved cook Same efficiencies as 2015 using improved charcoal stove efficiency cookstoves in 2030 Same fuel mix as 2015, but with Switching to 15% LPG stoves and 35% electric 15% of energy needs met by LPG cleaner fuels stoves in 2030 in 2030

3.4.1.5 Residential Energy Use Table 3-11: Mitigation measures for Residential Energy use Mitigation Measure Business as Usual NDC Scenario Details Increased electricity 100% by 2040 100% in 2030 access 65,000 improved cook stoves Electric stove Improved cook stove disseminated per year, growth in energy penetration (see 3 efficiency use driven by UBOS household below) projections Same fuel mix as 2015, growth in energy Electricity to reach Cooking fuel switch to use driven by UBOS household 50% of cooking fuel electricity projections share by 2025 Same fuel mix as 2015, growth in energy 75% reduction from Reduced energy use for use driven by UBOS household BAU in energy use for lighting projections lighting in 2030

3.4.2 Targets for Energy sector The emissions under the Business-As-Usual scenario in the Energy sector (stationary) will increase from 5.7 MtCO2e in 2015 to about 12.4 MtCO2e in 2030. The main mitigation actions above have a potential to reduce GHG emissions in this sector by 18.8% to 10.1 MtCO2e in 2030 as shown in figure 3-5. The Figure also presents the sector’s annual mitigation targets. 36 14.00 12.44 12.00 10.00 10.10 MtCO2e 8.00 5.66 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 203 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Baseline 5.66 5.78 6.06 6.36 6.68 7.03 7.39 7.77 8.17 8.59 10.0 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 NDC 5.66 5.71 5.91 6.12 6.33 6.56 6.79 7.02 7.26 7.46 8.66 9.51 9.73 10.0 10.3 10.1 Figure 3-5: Energy sector baseline and annual targets under the mitigation scenario

3.4.3 Additional Mitigation Measures Table 3-12: Additional Mitigation actions Mitigation Measure Description • Strengthen enforcement of the mining Act, 2003 and the National Environment Act, 2019 and all the relevant regulations, one of the pillars of which is respect for the environment and compliance with the Acts (and its implementing provisions); • Evaluate the feasibility of establishing and operating a financial Make the exploitation mechanism for the mining sector to fund the contribution to the fight of mineral resources against climate change; climate-compatible • Boost the sector's energy efficiency by conducting awareness campaigns to sensitize mining companies on sustainable energy utilization • Supply this sector with electricity from renewable sources as far as possible. Predicted future power demand from the mining sector alone, could absorb more than 30% of the hydroelectric potential identified to date. Promote Promoting establishment of ESCOs enhances preparation and management establishment of of large energy efficiency projects for implementation for high energy energy service consuming industries. companies (ESCOs) Energy Management Implementing this standard in industries requires industries to put in place Standards systems and policies for continued energy improvement in their operations. Regulating energy utilization in buildings for cooling, heating, ventilation and Energy Efficiency in hot water is in alignment with health, comfort, well-being and sustainability, Buildings including improving energy productivity and reducing CO2 emissions 37

3.5 Transport Sector Uganda’s transport system can be divided into five sectors: (1) road transport; (2) rail transport; (3) air transport, (4) inland water transport; and (5) other modes (LEDS, 2018)7. Road transport is the dominant mode, carrying over 95% of total traffic (LEDS, 2018). The public road network, including both classified and unclassified roads, comprises more than 140,000 km. In 2018/2019, about 96 percent of freight cargo and passenger traffic was delivered by road (National Planning Authority, 2020)8. The city of Kampala in particular accounts for over 50% of the vehicles in Uganda (Ministry of Water and Environment, 2015)9. Majority of vehicles in Uganda originate from Japan, imported as reconditioned units, usually more than 5 years old. The current motorised vehicle fleet is approximately 1,355,090 vehicles, up from 739,036 in 2012, with the average age of vehicles being more than 15 years old. Public passenger transport in Uganda is a mix between cars, motorcycles, minibuses and buses (Ministry of Works and Transport)10. Civil aviation transport has also expanded rapidly in recent years. International passenger numbers per annum increased during the last 8 years from 781,428 to 1,303,484 in 2016. International traffic dominates flights at Entebbe, up to 97% for passengers and 99% for cargo. Entebbe International Airport is currently undergoing expansion in order to cater for the increasing passenger traffic and cargo freight (Ministry of Works and Transport). Rail and waterway services are generally in a run-down state (National Transport Master Plan, 2015)11. The current market shares of railways declined from 12% to 5% within the last 8 years (Ministry of Works and Transport). Railway Transport sector has been operating below its capacity due to the dilapidation of the railway line (only 26% of the railway line is operational), poor state of locomotives, unavailability of boat ferries to supplement the network, poor state of real estate property and theft of track materials (Ministry of Works and Transport). Road transport is responsible for 84% of transport energy. It is followed by domestic aviation with 11%, and rail and water transport that consume 3% of the total each.

3.5.1 Main Mitigation Policies and Measures Table 3-13: Main mitigation actions to be implemented in the Transport sector in 2030 Sub-sectors Mitigation Measure Description and impact This measure aims to improve national fleet database, frameworks, and fuel standards so that regulation of the sub-sector can be enhanced, Mobile Road transport fuel efficiency including regulations of imported vehicles. This energy measure can reduce the emissions by approximately consumption.

1.86 MtCO2e by 2030. Transport This measure intends to improve fuel standards and sector. efficiency in the country. Cleaner fuels will be Alternative fuel switch promoted. This measure has potential to reduce emissions by approximately 0.54 MtCO2e by 2030. 7 https://ledsgp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GIP01883-LEDS-UgandaFinal.pdf 8 http://www.npa.go.ug/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NDPIII-Finale_Compressed.pdf 9 https://www.mwe.go.ug/sites/default/files/library/National%20Climate%20Change%20Policy%20April%202015%20final.pdf 10 Mitigation assessment of transport sector. MoWT. Unpublished. 11 https://works.go.ug/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/National-Transport-Master-Plan-2008-2023.pdf 38 This measure aims to use the planned NMT corridors Development of Non- in the GKMA as well as in other urban areas across Motorized Transport (NMT) Uganda as its basis. The measure has a potential to infrastructure reduce the emissions by approximately 0.66 MtCO2e by 2030. This measure intends to implement 61 km of MGR – Meter Gauge passenger rail by 2030 and to achieve 22% of fuel Railway rehabilitation for economy improvement of diesel locomotives. This freight transit measure has a potential to reduce the emissions by approximately 0.0005 MtCO2e by 2030. Efficient operation of public transportation Residential trip avoidance Measures Aggregated – “Modal shift of passengers through town planning and to mass transit and NMT” transport orientated development BRT – Bus Rapid Transit GKMA Passenger service Metro rail LRT – Light Rail Transit Not implemented within time-period. SGR – Standard Gauge Railway

3.5.1.1 Transport Mitigation by Sub-sectors Table 3-14: Transport mitigation measures by sub-sectors Mitigation BAU NDC Scenario Details Measure Global Fuel Economy Initiative Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) 50 by 50 (GFEI) 50 by 50 targets,12 targets, improvement of fuel economy with 10- improvement of fuel economy Road transport year time-lag: with 20-year time-lag: fuel efficiency 2030: 20% 2040: 20% 2040: -35% 2050: -35% 2060: -50% 2070: -50% 1% per year increase in alternative fuel use for all road vehicles Road: No switching to - 60% of the increase comes from natural gas. Alternative fuel alternative fuels (LNG, ethanol - 20% from ethanol (E10). switch or LNG). All traditional fuels - 20% from biodiesel. (petrol/gasoline and diesel). Introduction of at least 200 e-buses in GKMA in 2030.13 100 km of complete streets or dedicated NMT Development Road: Walking accounts for corridors, constructed in greater Kampala area in of Non- 46% of daily trips.14 2030 leading to 10% shift in PKM by mode from Motorized other passenger modes. Transport 2015 passenger KM (PKM) Construct 100 km of NMT facilities in secondary (NMT) Motorised: 66,715 million cities in 2030. infrastructure Non-motorised: 78,318 million 12 https://www.globalfueleconomy.org/media/46127/50by50-report-2009-lr.pdf 13 Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI) E-bus Mission. 14 Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA). (2018). Multi-Modal Urban Transport Master Plan for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA): Final Report. Section 2.3. 39 Mitigation BAU NDC Scenario Details Measure Total road PKM: 145,033 Policies introduced to manage the use of million personal motor vehicles to reduce congestion and encourage a shift to public transport, walking, and cycling. Including parking management and secure cycle parking. Work with the taxi industry to achieve service quality improvements and operator consolidation. Introduce 1,000 high-quality city buses in GKMA15 together with bus shelters, Efficient terminals, and depots.16 Standard growth rate of PKM operation of of 7% to 2025 and 6% to 2050. public Introduce ITS systems, automatic fare collection, No change in load factor. transportation and control centre for public transport in GKMA 2025.17 5% reduction in VKM and 5% increase in load factor from improved organisation of urban public transport. Develop land use and transport master plans Residential trip incorporating transit-oriented land use and avoidance measures to incentivise well-located affordable through town Standard growth rate of PKM housing along planned mass rapid transit lines. planning and of 7% to 2025 and 6% to 2050. Adopt TOD friendly building control rules by transport No change in load factor. 2025. orientated development TOD reduces motorised travel demand by 5% in 2050. Road: Standard growth rate of Implement 101 km of BRT in GKMA in 2030.18 PKM of 7% to 2025 and 6% to 2050. No change in load factor. Policies introduced to manage the use of BRT – Bus personal motor vehicles to reduce congestion Rapid Transit Minimal policies to encourage and encourage a shift to public transport, mass transit uptake over walking, and cycling. Including parking private vehicles. management and secure cycle parking. Rail: Historical growth rate Implement 61 km of passenger MGR rail in 2030. continues across period. 12% 22% fuel economy improvement of diesel fuel economy improvement of locomotives achieved in 2030 relative to 2015. GKMA diesel locomotives achieved in Passenger 2030 relative to 2015. Policies introduced to manage the use of service personal motor vehicles to reduce congestion Minimal policies to encourage and encourage a shift to public transport, mass transit uptake over walking, and cycling. Including parking private vehicles. management and secure cycle parking. Rail: Historical growth rate Implement 75 km of fully electrified passenger continues across period. 12% metro rail by 2040. Metro rail fuel economy improvement of diesel locomotives achieved in Policies introduced to manage the use of 2030 relative to 2015. personal motor vehicles to reduce congestion 15 Bus system planned by KCCA in collaboration with Metu Zhongtong. 16 Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA). (2018). Multi-Modal Urban Transport Master Plan for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA): Final Report. Section C-3. 17 Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA). (2018). Multi-Modal Urban Transport Master Plan for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA): Final Report. Section C-5. 18 Four corridors identified in the MMUTMP. Section 10.5. 40 Mitigation BAU NDC Scenario Details Measure Minimal policies to encourage and encourage a shift to public transport, mass transit uptake over walking, and cycling. Including parking private vehicles. management and secure cycle parking. Rail: Historical growth rate Implement 100 km of fully electrified passenger continues across period. 12% LRT rail by 2040. fuel economy improvement of diesel locomotives achieved in Policies introduced to manage the use of LRT – Light 2030 relative to 2015. personal motor vehicles to reduce congestion Rail Transit and encourage a shift to public transport, Minimal policies to encourage walking, and cycling. Including parking mass transit uptake over management and secure cycle parking. private vehicles. MGR – Meter Rehabilitation of 634 km of meter gauge railway Rail: Historical growth rate Gauge by 2026 to facilitate modal shift of freight from continues across period. 12% Railway road to rail. 22% fuel economy improvement of fuel economy improvement of rehabilitation diesel locomotives achieved in 2030 relative to diesel locomotives achieved in for freight 2015. 2030 relative to 2015. transit Rail: Historical growth rate Implement 1,412 km of fully electrified standard SGR – continues across period. 12% gauge rail by 2050. Standard fuel economy improvement of Gauge diesel locomotives achieved in Railway 2030 relative to 2015.

3.5.2 Targets for Transport Sector Transport sector GHG emissions under Business-As-Usual conditions will more than double from 4.2 MtCO2e in 2015 to 9.6 MtCO2e in 2030. If all the main mitigation measures under the NDC scenario are implemented fully, they have the potential to limit the growth of the emissions by 29% to 6.8 MtCO2e in 2030 as illustrated in the figure 3-6. The figure also presents annual targets under the transport sector mitigation scenario. 12 10 9.6 8 6 6.8 MtCO2e 4.2 4 2 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Baseline 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.7 9.2 9.6 NDC4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.8 Figure 3-6: Transport baseline and annual targets under the NDC scenario 41

3.5.3 Additional Mitigation Measures Table 3-15: Additional mitigation measures Mitigation Measure Description Road improvement projects Improvement of road infrastructure, including roads, bridges, etc Electric road vehicles Electric boda-boda or buses Electrification of rail Plans for electric traction of passenger rail Oil pipeline Pipeline to transfer oil internally in Uganda, replacing road freight Utilisation of water transport Increased water-borne transport E-commuting Increased use of remote working

3.6 Waste Sector This sector covers solid waste and wastewater. Waste composition is changing rapidly in Uganda particularly in urban areas. Waste generation rate in tonnes per day, is increasing annually in the cities because of growing urbanization. The country generates waste in the form of domestic and industrial wastewater as well as solid waste. Despite challenges of poor data collection systems, it is estimated that the content of biodegradable material in the country decreased from 88.5% in 1990 to 77% in 2014. Content of plastics in the waste increased from 1.6% to 12.4% during the period. It is estimated that over 755 kilo tons of solid waste was generated in Uganda in 2017. The city of Kampala is responsible for half of the waste generated in the country. Volumes of wastewater are also increasing in the country especially in the cities. However, there are limited sewage systems with many households constructing their own septic tanks. The fraction of households that are connected to the municipal sewage system in the cities is estimated to be only 1%19 with a projected growth to 30% in the next decade. In the absence of wastewater collection and treatment services, households often rely on onsite sanitation systems, such as pit latrines. In this case, GHG emissions depend on the individual use of the system, e.g. poor flush latrines vs. dry latrines, the quality and efficiency of faecal sludge management and the type of faecal sludge treatment. Baseline assumptions: The population with access to waste management services was assumed to grow in line with national population growth, while consumption, waste generation and solid waste management practices are assumed to remain the same over the projected period. The following assumptions were made for solid waste disposal: • Waste management technologies remain constant from 2015 (40% unmanaged shallow and 60 percent managed anaerobic); • Degradable organic carbon fraction remains constant for all waste types; • Waste per capita remains constant at average 2002 - 2015 value (237 kg/capita/yr); • Percent of waste sent to managed sites remains constant at 2015 value (60%); • Waste categorization remains constant at 2015 values (38.7% food; 34.4% garden; 10.6% paper; 1.3% wood; 0.5% textile; 0.5% nappies; and 14% plastics); 19 Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2020: five years into the SDGs. Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), 2021. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO 42 • Sludge sent to managed sites remains constant at 2015 value (0%); and, • Amount of methane recovered remains constant at 2015 value (zero kg). For wastewater treatment and discharge, it was assumed that consumption, wastewater generation and treatment practices remain the same over the projected period, while wastewater generation grows in line with national population growth. The following specific assumptions for wastewater treatment and discharge were made: • Degradable organic component remains at default value; • Types of treatment and discharge remain constant from 2015 to 2025 (mostly anaerobic deep lagoon; the remainder, latrine); from 2025, mostly septic tank and latrine; the remainder, lagoon; • Fraction of population using different treatments remains constant from 2015 to 2025 (mostly anaerobic deep lagoon; the remainder, latrine); from 2025, mostly septic tank and latrine; the remainder, lagoon; • Degree of technology use remains constant from 2015 to 2025 (mostly anaerobic deep lagoon; the remainder, latrine); from 2025, mostly septic tank and latrine, the remainder lagoon; and, • Per capita protein consumption remains constant as of 2015 (17.888 kg/person/year). For industrial wastewater treatment and discharge, future activity was assumed to increase in line with the historical increase for the period 2005 - 2015.

3.6.1 Main mitigation Policies and Measures Table 3-16: Main mitigation Policies and Measures Sub-sectors Mitigation Measure Description and Impact This measure will target green development in the large Planned Green municipal areas. It will look into improving infrastructure in the Cities Waste cities. This measure has potential to reduce emissions by management approximately 1.1 MtCO2e by 2030. Waste sector This measure is aimed at introducing biogas digesters in NAMA - Schools bio- schools. Biogas digesters will be fed by waste from bio latrines latrines and used for cooking. The measure has potential to reduce the emissions by 0.0006 MtCO2e by 2030.

3.6.1.1 Waste Mitigation by Sub-Sectors The waste sector produces relatively smaller amounts of greenhouse gas emissions as compared to other sectors. Two main mitigation measures in the waste sector are planned; i. Green cities waste management ii. School bio latrines – Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action Table 3-17 gives a description of the proposed mitigation measures for the waste sector. 43 Table 3-17: Waste mitigation measures by sub-sectors Mitigation Sub-sector Description measure Support comprehensive physical planning and efficient waste management (solid and wastewater) for five cities and 15 municipalities. Efficient Solid Waste and This will entail proper implementation of the waste hierarchy and Solid Waste wastewater relevant regulations, including reduction, recycling and reuse of and Waste management in solid waste, and wastewater treatment in the cities of Greater water Planned Green Kampala Metropolitan City (GKMC), Gulu, Mbarara, Hoima and cities Mbale, as well as 15 municipalities. It includes acquisition of land for infrastructure and service facilities for sanitation, solid waste management and drainage services. NAMA - Improving cooking and sanitation conditions of schools through Wastewater Schools bio use of bio latrines (biogas digesters). latrines

3.6.2 Targets for Waste sector Under the BAU scenario, the waste sector emissions are projected to grow from 2.08 MtCO2e in the base year to 3.19 MtCO2e in 2030. If fully implemented, the main mitigation measures and policies are projected to reduce the 2030 emissions by 34.8% to 2.09 MtCO2e. This is illustrated in figure 3-7. . Figure 3-7: Waste sector baseline and annual targets under the NDC scenario The figure also presents the annual mitigation targets for the AFOLU sector. Planned green cities waste management has high mitigation potential over the schools’ bio latrines and can account for nearly all the current potential abatements in the NDC scenario. 44

3.6.3 Additional Mitigation Measures Table 3-18: Additional mitigation measures under the Waste sector Mitigation Sub-sectors Measure Description Waste from sugarcane is increasing in the country. There Sugarcane waste is potential to generate energy from this waste. Energy Waste management generation potential from this waste needs to be investigated. The NAMA seeks to increase efficiency and value addition prospects for wastewater treatment of agro-processing NAMA - firms by establishing an integrated wastewater treatment Iintegrated process using both an anaerobic and aerobic digester with Wastewater Wastewater sequencing batch reactor. Methane will be captured as Treatment for biogas. The NAMA will address methane emissions from Agro-process agro-process wastewater treatment, which were estimated Water in Uganda at 14,358 tCO2e/year for effluent from 11 fish factories and three abattoirs in Kampala City Wastewater Wastewater Enhancing wastewater collection and treatment, including and sanitation treatment decentralized sanitation solutions Wastewater Achieving energy neutrality in wastewater treatment plants Energy recovery and sanitation with implementation of energy recovery Implement measures to improve the energy balance of water and wastewater treatment and transportation, including technological upgrades of aeration and Water and Energy efficiency compressors; sludge management; pipes maintenance; Wastewater digitalization and variable speed drive control; sensors; process controls etc.; as well as addressing water losses or unnecessary water consumption. Water and Replacement of fossil energy sources with renewable Renewable energy Wastewater energy in water and wastewater management.

3.7 Industrial Processes and Product Use Uganda’s industrial sector continues to grow having been prioritised as a key programme in her NDP III. The sector has a high potential for enhanced economies of scale for factor productivity and deeper, more dynamic and stronger forward and backward linkages with other sectors. Emissions in this sector are from cement production, lime production, iron and steel production, lubricant use, refrigeration and air conditioning. Cement production accounts for the highest share of emissions within the sector. Two types of cement are produced in the country: Portland cement and Pozzolana Portland Cement. The clicker fractions in the Portland cement and Pozzolana Portland Cement are 95% and 72% respectively (Ministry of Water and Environment, 2019). 45

3.7.1 Mitigation Policies and Measures

3.7.1.1 IPPU Mitigation by Sub-Sectors Because cement production is responsible for the majority of emissions in the IPPU sector, targeting it is therefore the best course of action for reducing emissions in the sector. Clinker is a component of cement and is essentially a mix of limestone and minerals that have been heated and transformed in a kiln. The table 3-19 presents the main and additional mitigation measures for this sector. Table 3-19: Mitigation measures under IPPU sector Sub-sector Description Clinker substitution in cement production. This measure aims to substitute clinker in cement production with less carbon intensive constituents like pozzolana, fly-ash or slag. This Main Mitigation Cement sector measure has a potential to reduce the emissions by approximately 0.10 Measure MtCO2e by 2030. Other constituents (i.e., pozzolana, fly-ash or slag) are used to replace clinker in cement, thereby lowering emissions and energy use. Additional Mitigation Refrigerant use Circular economy management of refrigerants Measure

3.7.2 Targets for IPPU Sector Under Business-as-Usual scenario, the industrial processes and product use sector emissions are projected to grow from 0.57 MtCO2e in 2015 to 1.0 MtCO2e in 2030. Implementation of the main mitigation measure has the potential to reduce the emissions in this sector by 14% to

0.86 MtCO2e in 2030 as shown in the figure 3-8. The figure also presents the annual mitigation targets for the IPPU sector. 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.86 MtCO2e 0.57 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 203 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Baseline 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 NDC 0.570.570.580.590.610.620.640.660.690.710.730.760.780.810.840.86 Figure 3-8: IPPU sector baseline and annual targets under the NDC scenario 46

3.8 Co-benefits of NDC implementation for short-lived Climate pollutant and Air pollutant mitigation Uganda joined the Climate and Clean Air Coalition in 2021, and is committed to undertaking integrated action that simultaneously improves air quality and mitigate climate change. Under the Climate and Clean Air 3 Coalition's Supporting National Action & Planning (SNAP) initiative, Uganda is enhancing institutional capacity to address climate change and air pollution through the development of national ambient air quality regulations and standards and by integrating climate change and clean air strategies. Uganda intends to improve her national planning process to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) by developing a national emission inventory of SLCPs and air pollutants for instance black carbon, methane and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). This will complement Uganda’s efforts towards the implementation of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the Ozone layer. Additionally, national appropriate policies and measures to reduce SLCPs will be identified and integrated in the next round of NDCs. 47 4 MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION This section highlights the financial support required for implementing the updated NDC actions and measures across all sectors up to 2030 including capacity building and technology development and transfer requirements, and gender equity and transformative actions for ensuring resilience building and low carbon development.

4.1 Climate Finance Needs Uganda requires USD 28.1 billion to implement both unconditional and conditional adaptation and mitigation actions and targets of the updated NDC and its cross-cutting issues of technology development and transfer, gender, and capacity building across all sectors up to 2030. The financial support is expected to be mobilized from domestic and international sources. The estimated cost of the adaptation up to 2030 across all sectors is USD 17.7 billion of which USD 2.5 billion equivalent to 14% of the total adaptation cost is unconditional and USD 15.2 billion equivalent to 86% is conditional on international support. The estimated cost of the mitigation policies and measures up to 2030 across all sectors is USD 10.3 billion of which USD 1.6 billion equivalent to 15% of the total mitigation cost is unconditional and USD 8.7 billion equivalent to 85% is conditional on international support. The estimated cost of crosscutting activities including coordination support is USD 0.1 billion.

4.2 Capacity Building Capacity building and technology development and transfer are critical for both implementing the interventions in this updated NDC and achieving the Paris Agreement's goals. Recognising the importance of supporting climate change education, training, public awareness, public participation and access to information is crucial to the implementation of the updated NDC. Uganda will apply a whole- of -society approach to promote knowledge, awareness raising and information sharing. The following are some of the capacity building needs to drive implementation of the updated NDC; • Reviewing and implementing the Uganda National Climate Change Learning Strategy. • Building long-term strategic multi stakeholder partnerships. • Strengthening coordination and institutional arrangement to enhance collaboration and promote knowledge sharing. • Establishing climate change knowledge and learning centres. • Expanding access to tools and support for capacity building and awareness raising. • Strengthening monitoring, reporting and verification of the implementation and achievement of the updated NDC. • Technology Development and Transfer. 48 Uganda has conducted a systematic process for identifying and selecting climate technologies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. A technology action plan for adaptation and for mitigation has been developed but yet to be implemented. For effective implementation of this updated NDC, the following investments are required to accelerate the development and transfer of climate technologies; • Implementing the technology action plans for adaptation and mitigation. • Establishing national and regional demonstration centres of excellence to foster update of climate technologies. • Building community ownership and capacity to operate and management climate technologies. • Building partnership with private sector, research institutions and non-governmental organization to expand co-investment in technology transfer and diffusion. • Creating an enabling environment to address barriers for the development and transfer of climate technologies.

4.3 Gender Mainstreaming In this updated NDC, a gender analysis was carried out to highlight the different roles of women and men, the challenges they face in light of climate change, and priorities for climate action, particularly in improving resilience and adaptation. Women and girls, particularly those living in poverty, were found to be at greater risk and burden of climate change. This was partly attributed to unequal opportunities on land rights and the exclusion of women from decision- making and thus not benefiting from technologies and practices which enable them better adapt to changing climate conditions. Under the NDC support program, Uganda has made significant progress on gender and NDC, which includes a draft report for gender analysis for agriculture, energy, and waste; establishing a climate action innovation challenge grant for women and youth-led enterprises; and designating gender focal points for key NDC sectors to support gender integration in their respective institutions’ planning cycles. This updated NDC comprises adaptation and mitigation actions that take gender into consideration. To ensure gender-responsive NDC implementation, the following actions should be put in place: a) Enhance women participation in decision making processes across all levels to enable their contribution in the assessment of needs and prioritization of climate actions. b) Designate gender and climate change specialists across Ministries, Agencies and Local Governments to strengthen gender and climate change mainstreaming in the formulation, implementation and monitoring of NDC actions. c) Expand the mainstreaming of gender and climate change in all budget framework papers and local government plans. d) Develop gender disaggregated data for the updated NDC implementation plan e) Develop skills and capacity on gender and climate change. 49

Annex 1: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of Uganda’s updated NDC 1. Quantified information on the reference point, including, as appropriate, a base year a Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or The updated base year is 2015 reflecting the latest national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory. The other starting point(s) reference year is 2021 and the reference period is 2021 – 2030. b. Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, In the base year, the emissions were 90.1 MtCO 2e. Under Business-as-usual (BAU) conditions their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference (baseline scenario) the country’s GHG emissions are projected to increase to 148.8 MtCO2e by 2030. period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the Sectoral BAU baselines for each of the key mitigation sectors have been computed. target year c. Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed Economy wide emissions reduction of 24.7% in 2030 below the BAU conditions. Of which, numerically, for example in percentage or amount of Uganda’s unconditional efforts will result into reduction of 5.9% in 2030 below the BAU conditions. reduction d. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, Instead of responding to Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, Uganda has responded to paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and Article 4, paragraph 19 thereby developing the country’s first Long Term Climate Strategy (LTS) which measures as components of nationally determined highlights pathways to a resilient, inclusive and low carbon economy by the year 2050. contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information The key data sources used for baseline projection are: • Uganda’s 2015 GHG inventory report • East African Commission (2015). The East African Community Vision 2050. • Electricity Regulatory Authority (2021) Least Cost Electricity Expansion Plan 2020-2030. PLN/83-120/021/008 • Government of Uganda (2007). Climate Change: Uganda National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) submitted to UNFCCC. • Government of Uganda (2019) Uganda State of the Environment Report. National e. Information on sources of data used in quantifying the Environmental Management Authority (NEMA). reference point(s) • Government of Uganda (2013). Uganda National Climate Change Learning Strategy 2013 – 2022. Ministry of Water and Environment. • Government of Uganda (2015a). Annual Statistical Abstract. Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). • Government of Uganda (2015b). National Climate Change Policy. Ministry of Water and Environment. • Government of Uganda (2015d). Second National Development Plan 2015/2016 – 2019/2020. National Planning Authority. Kampala Uganda. 50 • Government of Uganda (2017). Strategic programme for climate resilience: Uganda Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR). • Government of Uganda (2017). The Uganda Green Growth Development Strategy 2017/18 - 2030/31. • Government of Uganda (2020). Third National Development Plan 2020/21 - 2024/25. National Planning Authority. Kampala Uganda. • IFPRI (2010). Enterprise Budget Survey: An Analysis of Crop and Livestock Enterprises, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Uganda Strategy Support Program (USSP), Working Paper No. 5, June 2010. • CIAT (2011). Future Climate Scenarios for Uganda’s Tea Growing Areas. International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Final report: July, 2011. • Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA). (2015). Kampala city Energy and Climate Profile. • Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (2018). National Adaptation Plan for the Agricultural Sector. MAAIF, Kampala Uganda. • Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (2020a). Situational Analysis of the Agriculture Sector in Uganda. Final Report. • Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (2020b). Long term low carbon, climate resilient agricultural development pathways for Uganda actions for meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC COP21). Draft Report. • Ministry of Water and Environment (2013). National Forest Plan. • Ministry of Water and Environment (2014), Uganda’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Accessed from: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/uganc2.pdf • Ministry of Water and Environment (2015a). Uganda’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). Ministry of Water and Environment. • Ministry of Water and Environment (2015b). Economic Assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda. Final Report. • Ministry of Water and Environment (2015c). Uganda Wetlands Atlas: Volume One – Kampala city, Mukono and Wakiso districts • Ministry of Water and Environment (2019), Uganda’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Accessed from: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FBUR%20Final_2019.pdf 51 • Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (2013). Biomass Energy Strategy for Uganda (BEST). Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development. Accessed from: https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/64163 • Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (2015) Energy and Mineral Sector Development Plan. Accessed from: http://npa.go.ug/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Energy-Sector- Development-plan-Final.pdf • National Planning Authority (2010). Uganda Vision 2040. National Planning Authority, Kampala Uganda. Accessed from: http://www.npa.go.ug/uganda-vision-2040/ • Nsubuga, F. W., & Rautenbach, H. (2018). Climate change and variability: A review of what is known and ought to be known for Uganda. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. • Rautenbach. H. (2014). Regional-scale Climate Change Projections of Annual. Seasonal and Monthly Near-Surface Temperatures and Rainfall in Uganda. Report for the Ministry of Water and Environment & Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN). • Republic of Uganda (2014). Poverty Status Report 2014. • UNDP. (2018). Uganda national urban climate change profile. UNDP and Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development. Kampala Uganda. • Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) (2018). Uganda National Household Survey 2016/2017. Kampala, Uganda; Accessed from: https://www.ubos.org/wp- content/uploads/publications/03_20182016_UNHS_FINAL_REPORT.pdf • UNDP (2013). Climate Risk Management for Sustainable Crop Production in Uganda: Rakai and Kapchorwa Districts • UN FAO (2019). Options for low-emission development in the Uganda dairy sector. Final report. • USAID. (2013). Uganda Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. USAID, African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC). • World Bank Group. (2015). Uganda: Strategic Climate Diagnostics, World Bank Group. • WWF (2015). Energy report for Uganda: A 100% renewable energy future by 2050 Baseline projections may be updated under following circumstances: • Significant difference between the actual and projected economic growth (GDP) f. Information on the circumstances under which the Party • Significant difference between the actual and the projected livestock population may update the values of the reference indicators • Significant difference between the actual and projected population consumption and waste patterns. • Methodological improvements 52 2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation a. Time frame and/or period for implementation, including The Implementation period is 2021 to 2030. A mid-term review may be conducted in 2025. start and end date, consistent with any further relevant decision adopted by the CMA; b. Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as Single year target in 2030. applicable. 3. Scope and coverage Uganda has committed to reduce her economy-wide Greenhouse gas emissions by 24.7% in 2030 below the BAU baseline. 82.7% of the mitigation action will come from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector. a. General description of the target; Uganda will use domestic sources of support to reduce emissions by 5.9% below the BAU trajectory in 2030 (un conditional contribution). International support in form of financial, capacity-building and technology transfer, will enable the country to reduce emissions by 18.8% in 2030 below the BAU (conditional contribution). The following IPCC gases have been covered in Uganda’s NDC: b. Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the • Carbon dioxide (CO2) nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, • Methane (CH4) consistent with IPCC guidelines; • Nitrous oxide (N2O) To the extent possible, categories of emissions or removals have been included, especially those c. How the Party has taken into consideration paragraphs considered ‘significant source categories’ 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21; To address the challenge of data availability, a GHG improvement plan has been developed to guide future GHG inventories. d. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, including description of specific projects, measures and initiatives of These have been specified under the Adaptation Component of the NDC. Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. 53 4. Planning process a. Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its NDC and, if available, on the Party’s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: Uganda has put in place institutional arrangements for coordination, supervision, regulation, and Management of all activities related to climate change. In particular, the Climate Change Department of the Ministry of Water and Environment is the mandated institution for coordination, monitoring, and evaluation of national programs and actions on climate change, ensuring that the country meets its obligations and realises its benefits under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. Uganda launched the NDC update process under the leadership of the Ministry of Water and Environment/Climate Change Department with support from the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) of the NDC Partnership implemented by partners: UNDP; GIZ; IRENA; UNEP; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, IUCN and ICLEI Africa. i. Domestic institutional arrangements, public The NDC Update Process applied a whole- of- government engagement through a sector-wide participation and engagement with local communities approach that ensured key Ministries, Departments, Agencies and Local Governments fully and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner; participated in the consultations. A whole -of -society involvement was also followed through a flexible and phased approach to ensure systematic engagement, public awareness and effective participation. As such, five multi-stakeholder regional workshops organised in a hybrid format were conducted in accordance with COVID 19 Standard Operating Procedures of the government in the regions of Central, Western, Eastern, Northern and West Nile. Special consultations were conducted for the youth and civil society with the private sector. Sectoral specific consultations were structured into four groups: AFOLU and Wetlands; Energy and Transport, Waste and IPPU; and Water, Health, Cities and DRR. Representatives of women groups and indigenous peoples were also consulted. The NDC update process was conducted simultaneously with the Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LTS), benefitting from joint modelling, assessments, progressive reviews, and stakeholder consultation for proper alignment. ii. Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate: (a) National circumstances, such as geography, Uganda is located in East Africa and occupies an area of 241,555 square kilometres, with water climate, economy, sustainable development and bodies and wetlands covering about a third of it, and standing astride the equator. poverty eradication; 54 Uganda’s climate is largely tropical with the rest of the country experiencing bi-modal rainy seasons per year except for northern region. The economy and people are highly dependent on the country’s rich natural resource base including agricultural land, forests, water bodies, wetlands and soils. The percentage of the population in poverty reduced from 21.4% in 2016/17 to 20.3% in 2019/20(Uganda National House Hold Survey 2019/2020). The NDC Update embraced whole -of- society approach where various categories of the society fully participated in a bottom-up approach. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the hybrid mode of participation through national and regional consultations enabled the identification of various climate actions which were discussed and prioritised by policy makers to ensure alignment with sectoral priorities. (b) Best practices and experience related to the The collaboration with National Planning Authority and the Ministry of Finance, Planning and preparation of the NDC; Economic Development ensured alignment of the update process with the Vision 2040 and development aspirations highlighted in the third National Development Plan (NDP III) of the country. The simultaneous work on mid-term climate action planning (NDC update) and long term (LTS development) promoted efficient strategic planning for climate action. The joint modelling for NDC update and LTS scenarios; systematic data and information sharing and joint progressive planning and pooling of partners support propelled synergy. The country envisages to achieve a middle-income status that comes along with improvements in (c) Other contextual aspirations and priorities socioeconomic welfare for all Ugandans. acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement; The updated NDC will support Uganda’s ambition of transitioning from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country by 2040. b. Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, Not Applicable including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16–18, of the Paris Agreement; 55 c. How the Party’s preparation of its NDC has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, in accordance Not applicable with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement; d. Each Party with an NDC under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on: i. How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing Not Applicable the NDC; ii. Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, Projects, measures and activities have been identified and are contained in the updated NDC coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, Implementation Plan. agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries. 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: a. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas The “2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories” was used in compiling the emissions and removals corresponding to the Party’s 2015 base year GHG inventory as well as the assumptions used in the first Biennial Update Report nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 2019 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA; b. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for Not applicable since implementation of policies and measures is yet to commence accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution; c. If applicable, information on how the Party will take into account existing methods and guidance under the See below Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and 56 removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; The NDC update was informed by the use of Global Warming Potential (GWP) of Greenhouse gases for 100 years which was used for the 2015 national GHG inventory highlighted in the first Biennial d. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating Update Report 2019. anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; Calculation of emissions from some categories was based from the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. e. Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: i. Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent Emissions and removals were approached in accordance with the Good Practice Guidance for Land removals from natural disturbances on managed lands; use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. ii. Approach used to account for emissions and Not included in the emissions calculations removals from harvested wood products; iii. Approach used to address the effects of age-class Not Applicable structure in forests; f. Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including: i. How the reference indicators, baseline(s) and/or reference level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, The baseline projections were modelled using a variety of tools in accordance with 2006 category- or activity-specific reference levels, are Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas constructed, including, for example, key parameters, Inventories, including the Low Emissions Analysis Platform. assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; ii. For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non-greenhouse-gas components, Not applicable information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; iii. For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, The revised NDC has not considered any climate forcer which has not been covered in IPCC information on how the climate forcers are estimated; iv. Further technical information, as necessary; None Uganda will use voluntary cooperation provided for in Article 6 in accordance with the National g. The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Climate Change Act 2021 to demonstrate her mitigation and adaptation ambition and mobilise Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable. support to promote sustainable development. 57 6. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances Uganda remains highly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts with a low human development index of 0.477 and per capita emissions estimated at 0.1 tCO2eq. Despite Uganda’s very low contribution to historical and current global emissions, the country has set new economy-wide emission reduction target of 24.7% under the Business as usual constructed in 2021, greater than the target in the first NDC communicated in 2016 of 22% under the Business as usual constructed in a. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and 2015. ambitious in the light of its national circumstances; Uganda will mobilize domestic resources equivalent to 15% of the total cost of the updated NDC to cover the unconditional actions. Additionally, the country has communicated its first unconditional mitigation contribution of 5.9% reduction below the BAU trajectory in 2030 and broadened the adaptation sectors from 7 to 13. Uganda is still a Least Development Country with overarching goal of transforming from a predominantly peasant and low-income country to a competitive upper middle-income country. b. Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity; Uganda ‘s updated NDC represents her contribution and the fair share of domestic effort towards achievement of the long-term temperature goal. c. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 3, of The updated NDC highlights a huge progression from 22% to 24.7% reduction in 2030. the Paris Agreement; Uganda continues to set economy-wide emission reduction target despite challenging times of Covid- d. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 4, of 19 pandemic and contracting economy. In this updated NDC, the economy-wide emission reduction the Paris Agreement; target of 24.7% reduction is inclusive of new sectors: Transport, Waste and Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU). e. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 6, of The NDC has been updated simultaneously with the development of the first Long Term Climate the Paris Agreement. Strategy (LTS)in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 19, of the Paris Agreement. 7. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objectives of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 The updated NDC reflects Uganda’s contribution as highlighted above, towards achievement of the a. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objective objective of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and defines priority of the Convention as set out in its Article 2; adaptation and mitigation actions. The updated NDC defines the country’s contribution highlighted in form of priority adaptation and b. How the NDC contributes towards Article 2, paragraph mitigation actions towards limiting increase to 1.5°C 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement. See 6. (a) 58