National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2023 - 2050

1.1.1 Purpose ......................................................................... 45

1.1.2 Vision ............................................................................. 46

1.1.3 Objectives ...................................................................... 47

1.1.4 Objectives ...................................................................... 47

1.2 NAP Guiding Principles .................................................... 48

1.3 NAP Processes and approach ......................................... 50 2 National Circumstances.................................................... 52

2.1 Geography ........................................................................ 53

2.2 Population......................................................................... 54

2.3 Economy........................................................................... 56

2.4 Governance ...................................................................... 58 3 Climate Change in the Philippines................................... 66

3.1 Introduction ....................................................................... 67

3.2 Historical climate trends ................................................... 69

3.2.1 Increased temperature and drought .............................. 71

3.2.2 Sea level rise (SLR) and extreme sea levels................. 76

3.2.3 Extreme precipitation .................................................... 80 3.2.4 Extreme wind and tropical cyclone ............................... 85

3.2.4 Extreme wind and tropical cyclone ............................... 90 3.3.1 Increased temperature and drought ............................. 93

3.3.1 Increased temperature and drought ............................. 94

3.3.2 Sea level rise and extreme sea levels ........................ 103

3.3.3 Sea level rise and extreme sea levels ........................ 117

3.3.4 Extreme wind and tropical cyclone ............................. 132

3.3.5 Provincial categorization based on climate ................ 142 4 Adaptation Priorities ....................................................... 146

4.1.1 Sectoral Categorization Based on Climate Risks ........ 151

4.1.2 Qualitative Assessment of Existing Strategies ............ 152

4.1.3 Approach to Determining Adaptation Priorities ............ 154

4.2 Sectoral Priority Outcomes and Adaptation Solutions .... 156

4.2.1 Approach to Determining Adaptation Priorities ........... 159

4.2.2 Water resources .......................................................... 170

4.2.3 Health .......................................................................... 180

4.2.4 Ecosystems & Biodiversity .......................................... 193 Table of Contents

4.2.5 Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement, .............. 203

4.2.6 Land Use and Human Settlements.............................. 212

4.2.7 Livelihoods and Industries .......................................... 220

4.2.8 Energy, Transport, and Communications .................... 228 5 NAP Implementation ....................................................... 235

5.1 Key cross-cutting enablers ............................................. 237

5.1.1 Enabler 1: Governance and institutions ...................... 237

5.1.2 Enabler 2: Stakeholder engagement ........................... 241

5.1.3 Enabler 3: Skills and capacity building ........................ 244

5.1.4 Enabler 4: Data and knowledge infrastructure ............ 247

5.1.5 Enabler 5: Technology and innovation......................... 249

5.1.6 Enabler 6: Adaptation financing ................................... 252

5.2 Implementation roadmap ................................................ 263

5.3 Monitoring, evaluation, accountability, and learning ...... 270

5.3.1 Purpose ....................................................................... 270

5.3.2 Action plan ................................................................... 271

5.3.3 AP revisions and updates ............................................ 273 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 List of Tables Table 3.1.1 Description and importance of selected CIDs ...... 70 Table 3.2.1.1: Filipino children’s exposure.............................. 77 Table 3.2.2.1: Top regions in terms of groundwater................ 81 Table 3.2.4.1: Categories of TC used by PAGASA................. 88 Table 3.3.1. Estimated range of CID-driven , SSP5-8.5 ......... 93 Table 3.3.2. Estimated range of CID-driven Social ................. 94 Table 3.3.1.1: Near-, mid-, and long-term changes ................ 96 Table 3.3.1.2: Nationwide average temperature ..................... 97 Table 3.3.1.3 : Nationwide average heat index....................... 98 Table 3.3.1.4: Social and economic impact ............................ 99 Table 3.3.1.5: Average temperature change (%) .................. 101 Table 3.3.1.6: Maximum number of unproductive days ........ 102 Table 3.3.1.7: Number and percent change ......................... 102 Table 3.3.1.8: Average temperature change (% and °C) ...... 104 Table 3.3.2.1: Social and economic impact of ...................... 109 Table 3.3.2.2: Rate of sea level rise (mm/year) .................... 113 Table 3.3.2.3: Average depth of areas flooded (meters)....... 115 Table 3.3.2.4: Average depth of areas flooded (meters)....... 118 Table 3.3.3.1: Quarterly historical (1991 to 2020)................. 122 Table 3.3.3.2: Social and economic impact .......................... 124 Table 3.3.3.4: Average depth of areas flooded (meters)....... 132 Table 3.3.3.5: Top 10 provinces with highest ........................ 133 Table 3.3.4.1: Social and economic impact .......................... 138 Table 3.3.4.2: Typhoon and/or Super Typhoon..................... 142 Table 4.2.1.1. Impacts of climate hazards on Agriculture ..... 163 Table X. Climate Analytics Model Projections....................... 166 Table 4.2.2.1. Impacts of climate hazards ............................ 174 Table 4.2.3.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers on Health . 184 Table 4.2.3.2. Philippine regions grouped ............................ 188 Table 4.2.3.3. Philippine regions grouped ............................ 189 Table 4.2.4.1. Impacts of climate hazards ............................ 197 Table 4.2.5.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers .................. 207 Table 4.2.6.1 Impacts of climatic impact-drivers ................... 215 Table 4.2.7.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers .................. 223 Table 4.2.7.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers .................. 231 Table 5.1.2.1 Stakeholder engagement list of actions .......... 245 Table 5.1.3.1 Skills and capacity building list of actions ....... 247 Table 5.1.4.1 Data and knowledge infrastructure ................. 250 Table 5.1.6.1. Overall cross-cutting list of actions ................ 259 Table 5.1.6.2. Domestic public funding sources ................... 260 Table 5.1.6.3 International development............................... 261 Table 5.1.6.4 Private funding sources list of actions............. 262 Table 5.1.6.4 Private funding sources list of actions............. 263 Table 5.1.6.6 Innovative Financing Instruments action plan . 264 Table 5.1.6.7 List of innovative funding instruments ............. 264 Table 5.3.3.1. NAP revisioning and updating cadences. ...... 275 15 List of Figures Figure 1.1.4.1 NAP Strategic Framework ............................... 47 Figure 1.3.1 The 5-step Process for the NAP Formulation ..... 50 Figure 2.1.1 Location map ...................................................... 53 Figure 2.3.1 Poverty and Subsistence ................................... 58 Figure 2.4.1 Philippine Climate Change-Related Laws .......... 63 Figure 2.4.2 PDP 2023-2028 Strategy Framework ............... 64 Figure 2.4.3 Philippine Climate Change Plans ....................... 65 Figure 3.1.1: Climatic Impact Drivers ..................................... 67 Figure 3.2.1: Four climate types of the Philippines................. 70 Figure 3.2.1.1: Changes in global surface temperature ......... 71 Figure 3.2.1.2: Top warmest years globally ............................ 72 Figure 3.2.1.3: Observed change in hot extreme ................... 72 Figure 3.2.1.4: National annual average mean temperature .. 73 Figure 3.2.1.5: National annual maximum and minimum ....... 73 Figure 3.2.1.6: Time series of detrended seasonal rice.......... 74 Table 3.2.1.1: Filipino children’s exposure to extreme heat.... 75 Figure 3.2.2.1: Sea level changes in the Philippines region ... 77 Figure 3.2.2.2: Sea level rise in selected areas...................... 78 Figure 3.2.2.3: Combined plot of sea level change ................ 78 Table 3.2.2.1: Top regions in terms of groundwater................ 79 Figure 3.2.2.4: Subsidence Zones in the Philippines ............. 79 Figure 3.2.3.1: Synthesis of assessment............................... 81 Figure 3.2.3.2: Observed trends in seasonal.......................... 81 Figure 3.2.3.3: Average monthly precipitation and ................. 82 Figure 3.2.3.4: Seasonal precipitation distribution.................. 82 Figure 3.2.3.5: Cumulative rainfall during ............................... 83 Figure 3.2.3.6: Map of landslides and flood............................ 84 Figure 3.2.4.1: Total number of TCs ....................................... 86 Table 3.2.4.1: Categories of TC used by PAGASA................. 86 Figure 3.2.4.2: Time series of annual count ........................... 87 Figure 3.2.4.3: Climatological normal of all TC....................... 87 Figure 3.2.4.5: Number of typhoons per year ......................... 88 Figure 3.2.4.4: Total number of TCs ....................................... 88 List of Figures Figure 3.2.4.6: Yearly total cost of damage ............................ 90 Figure 3.3.1.1: Annual changes in global surface .................. 94 Figure 3.3.1.2 Mean and maximum number........................... 97 Figure 3.3.1.3: 1991-2020 Historical annualized .................. 101 Figure 3.3.2.1: Global mean sea level change ..................... 103 Figure 3.3.2.2: Annual rate of sea level rise ......................... 105 Figure 3.3.2.3: Absolute sea level rise (meters) ................... 106 Figure 3.3.2.4: Coastal flooding model methodology ........... 107 Figure 3.3.2.5: Average sea level rise (mm/year) ................. 110 Figure 3.3.2.6: Absolute sea level rise (meters) ................... 110 Figure 3.3.2.7: Maximum flooding depth (meters) ................ 112 Figure 3.3.2.8: Extreme sea level rise (meters).................... 114 Figure 3.3.2.9: Extreme sea level rise (meters).................... 114 Figure 3.3.2.10: Maximum flooding depth (meters) .............. 115 Figure 3.3.3.1: Annual mean precipitation change (%)......... 118 Figure 3.3.3.2: Historical and projected average .................. 118 Figure 3.3.3.3: Four climate types of the Philippines............ 119 Figure 3.3.3.4: Historical annual precipitation ...................... 119 Figure 3.3.3.6: Seasonal and spatial historical ..................... 121 Figure 3.3.3.6: Seasonal and spatial historical ..................... 121 Figure 3.3.3.7: Population and Area exposed to landslide ... 124 Figure 3.3.3.8: Map of 21-year historical average ................ 126 Figure 3.3.3.9: Map of 21-year historical area impacted ...... 126 Figure 3.3.3.10: Map of 21-year historical average .............. 129 Figure 3.3.3.11: Map of 21-year historical area impacted .... 129 Figure 3.3.3.12: Map of average landslide occurrence ........ 132 Figure 3.3.4.1: Number of TCs in the Philippines ................. 134 Figure 3.3.4.2: Number of TCs per category ........................ 135 Figure 3.3.4.3: Annual peak TC windspeed (km/h) .............. 136 Figure 3.3.4.4: Typhoon and Super Typhoon ....................... 139 Figure 3.3.4.5: Upper panel – Maximum wind ...................... 139 Figure 3.3.5.1 Definition of each risk category ..................... 141 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Glossary 10-year return period Flood that has an exceedance probability of 0.10 or a 10% chance that the flow flooding will exceed in one year. Adaptation In human systems, it is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, it is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. Adaptive capacity The assets and abilities of the exposed element to address risk and vulnerability. Adaptation limit The point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions. Adaptation pathway A planning approach addressing the uncertainty and challenges of climate change decision-making. Biodiversity The variability among living organisms from terrestrial, marine, and other ecosystems. Biodiversity includes variability at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels. Biodiversity hotspot Geographic areas that are exceptionally rich in species, ecologically distinct, and often contain geographically rare endemic species. They are thus priorities for nature conservation action. Capacity building The practice of enhancing the strengths and attributes of, and resources available to, an individual, community, society, or organization to respond to change. Cascading impacts Impacts from extreme weather/climate events that occur when an extreme hazard generates a sequence of secondary events in natural and human systems resulting in physical, natural, social, or economic disruption, whereby the resulting impact is significantly larger than the initial impact. Climate The average weather—or more rigorously, the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities—over a period ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. Climate change A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Climatic impact-driver Physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, extremes, events) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Co-benefit A positive effect that a policy or measure aimed at one objective has on another objective, thereby increasing the total benefit to society or the environment. C o m m u n i t y - b a s e d Local, community-driven adaptation. Community-based adaptation focuses adaptation attention on empowering and promoting the adaptive capacity of communities. It is an approach that takes context, culture, knowledge, agency, and preferences of communities as strengths. Coral bleaching The loss of coral pigmentation through the loss of intracellular symbiotic algae (known as zooxanthellae) and/or loss of their pigments. Coral reef An underwater ecosystem characterized by structure-building stony corals. Warm-water coral reefs occur in shallow seas, mostly in the tropics, with the corals (animals) containing algae (plants) that depend on light and relatively stable temperature conditions. Cold-water coral reefs occur throughout the world, mostly at water depths of 50–500 m. In both kinds of reef, living corals frequently grow on older, dead material, predominantly made of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). Both warm- and cold-water coral reefs support high biodiversity of fish and other groups and are considered to be especially vulnerable to climate change. 18 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Glossary Coupled Model A climate modelling activity from the World Climate Research Programme Intercomparison Project (WCRP) which coordinates and archives climate model simulations based (CMIP) on shared model inputs by modelling groups from around the world. The CMIP3 multi-model data set includes projections using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The CMIP5 data set includes projections using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The CMIP6 phase involves a suite of common model experiments as well as an ensemble of CMIP-endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). Cultural Heritage The totality of cultural property preserved and developed through time and passed on to posterity. Cultural Impacts Impacts that are closely related to ecological impacts, especially for iconic and representational dimensions of species and landscapes. Culture and cultural practices frame the importance and value of the impacts of change, shape the feasibility and acceptability of adaptation options, and provide the skills and practices that enable adaptation. Cultural Property All products of human creativity by which people and a nation reveals their identity, including churches, mosques and other places of religious worship, schools and natural history specimens and sites, whether public or privately-owned, movable or immovable, and tangible or intangible. Disaster management The social processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies and measures that promote and improve disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices at different organizational and societal levels. Disaster risk The likelihood, over a specified period, of severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery. Disaster risk management Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, (DRM) and measures to improve the understanding of current and future disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous improvement in disaster preparedness, prevention and protection, response, and recovery practices, with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, well-being, quality of life and sustainable development (SD). Disaster risk reduction It denotes both a policy goal or objective, and the strategic and instrumental (DRR) measures employed for anticipating future disaster risk; reducing existing exposure, hazard, or vulnerability; and improving resilience. Downscaling A method that derives local- to regional-scale information from larger-scale models or data analyses. Two main methods exist: dynamical downscaling and empirical/statistical downscaling. The dynamical method uses the output of regional climate models, global models with variable spatial resolution or high-resolution global models. The empirical/statistical method is based on observations and develop statistical relationships that link the large-scale atmospheric variables with local/regional climate variables. In all cases, the quality of the Drought A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. The shortage of precipitation during the growing season impinges on crop production or ecosystem function in general (due to soil moisture drought, also termed agricultural drought), and during the runoff and percolation season, it primarily affects water supplies causing hydrological drought. A period with an abnormal precipitation deficit is defined as a meteorological drought. A megadrought is a very lengthy and pervasive drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more. 19 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Glossary Early warning systems The set of technical and institutional capacities to forecast, predict and (EWS) communicate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, managed ecosystems, and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare to act promptly and appropriately to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. Dependent upon context, EWS may draw upon scientific and/or indigenous knowledge, and other knowledge types. EWS are also considered for ecological applications, for example, conservation, where the organization itself is not threatened by hazard but the ecosystem under conservation is (e.g., coral bleaching alerts), in agriculture (e.g., warnings of heavy rainfall, drought, ground frost, and hailstorms), and in fisheries (e.g., warnings of storms, storm surges, and tsunamis). Ecosystem A functional unit consisting of living organisms, their non-living environment, and the interactions within and between them. The components included in a given ecosystem and its spatial boundaries depend on the purpose for which the ecosystem is defined—in some cases, they are relatively sharp, while in others they are diffuse. Ecosystem boundaries can change over time. Ecosystems are nested within other ecosystems, and their scale can range from very small to the entire biosphere. In the current era, most ecosystems either contain people as key organisms or are influenced by the effects of human activities in their environment. Ecosystem services Ecological processes or functions having monetary or non-monetary value to individuals or the society at large. These are frequently classified as (1) supporting services such as productivity or biodiversity maintenance, (2) provisioning services such as food or fibre, (3) regulating services such as climate regulation or carbon sequestration and (4) cultural services such as tourism or spiritual and aesthetic appreciation. Exposure People, places, and assets that are in the way of the hazards. Extreme precipitation High rates of precipitation resulting in episodic, localized flooding of streams and flat lands. Extreme sea levels Acute, temporary, and short-term increase of sea levels such as storm surge, astronomical tides, waves, and swash. Fluvial flooding Flooding that occurs when rivers and streams exceed their capacity and overflow their banks due to intense or prolonged precipitation. Governance capacity The ability of governance institutions, leaders and non-state and civil society to plan, coordinate, fund, implement, evaluate, and adjust policies and measures over the short, medium, and long term, adjusting for uncertainty, rapid change, and wide-ranging impacts and multiple actors and demands. Green infrastructure The strategically planned interconnected set of natural and constructed ecological systems, green spaces, and other landscape features that can provide functions and services including air and water purification, temperature management, floodwater management, and coastal defense often with co-benefits for human and ecological well-being. Grey infrastructure Engineered physical components and networks of pipes, wires, roads, and tracks that underpin energy, transport, communications (including digital), built form, water and sanitation, and solid-waste management systems. Hard adaptation limit No adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks. Hazard A threat represented by geophysical events and processes that may cause deaths, injuries, damages, loss, and destruction. Health A state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. 20 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Glossary Heat index A measure of how hot the air feels to the human body. The index is mainly based on surface air temperature and relative humidity and thus reflects the combined effect of high temperature and humidity on human physiology and provides a relative indication of potential health risks. Heat stress A range of conditions in, for example, terrestrial or aquatic organisms when the body absorbs excess heat during overexposure to high air or water temperatures or thermal radiation. In aquatic water-breathing animals, hypoxia and acidification can exacerbate vulnerability to heat. Heat stress in mammals (including humans) and birds, both in air, is exacerbated by a detrimental combination of ambient heat, high humidity, and low wind speed, causing the regulation of body temperature to fail. Human mobility The permanent or semi-permanent move by a person for at least one year and involving crossing an administrative, but not necessarily a national, border. Human security A condition that is met when the vital core of human lives is protected, and when people have the freedom and capacity to live with dignity. In the context of climate change, the vital core of human lives includes the universal and culturally specific, material and non-material elements necessary for people to act on behalf of their interests and to live with dignity. Increased temperature Episodic high surface air temperature events potentially exacerbated by humidity. Indigenous peoples Indigenous peoples and nations are those that—having a historical continuity with pre-invasion and pre-colonial societies that developed on their territories— consider themselves distinct from other sectors of the societies now prevailing on those territories, or parts of them. They form, at present, principally non-dominant sectors of society and are often determined to preserve, develop, and transmit to future generations their ancestral territories, and their ethnic identity, as the basis of their continued existence as Peoples, in accordance with their own cultural patterns, social institutions, and common law system. Informal settlement A term given to settlements or residential areas that, by at least one criterion, fall outside official rules and regulations. Most informal settlements have poor housing (with widespread use of temporary materials) and are developed on land that is occupied illegally with high levels of overcrowding. In most such settlements, provision for safe water, sanitation, drainage, paved roads, and basic services is inadequate or lacking. The term ‘slum’ is often used for informal settlements, although it is misleading as many informal settlements develop into good-quality residential areas, especially where governments support such development. Institutional capacity Building and strengthening individual organizations and providing technical and management training to support integrated planning and decision-making processes between organizations and people, as well as empowerment, social capital, and an enabling environment, including culture, values, and power relations. Land cover The biophysical coverage of land (e.g., bare soil, rocks, forests, buildings and roads, or lakes). Land cover is often categorized in broad land-cover classes (e.g., deciduous forest, coniferous forest, mixed forest, grassland, and bare ground). Note: In some literature assessed in this report, land cover and land use are used interchangeably, but the two represent distinct classification systems. For example, the land cover class of woodland can be under various land uses such as livestock grazing, recreation, conservation, or wood harvest. Land use The total of arrangements, activities and inputs applied to a parcel of land. The term land use is also used in the sense of the social and economic purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction, conservation, and city dwelling). In national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, land use is classified according to the IPCC land use categories of forest land, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, and other lands. 21 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Glossary Land management The sum of land use practices (e.g., sowing, fertilizing, weeding, harvesting, thinning, and clear-cutting) that take place within broader land use categories. Livelihood The resources used and the activities undertaken for people to live. Livelihoods are usually determined by the entitlements and assets to which people have access. Such assets can be categorized as human, social, natural, physical, or financial. Loss and Damage, and Research has taken Loss and Damage (uppercase) to refer to political debate losses and damages under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) following the establishment of the Warsaw Mechanism on Loss and Damage in 2013, which is to ‘address loss and damage associated with impacts of climate change, including extreme events and slow onset events, in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.’ Broadly, losses and damages (lowercase) have been taken to refer to harm from (observed) impacts and (projected) risks and can be economic or non-economic. Maladaptive actions Actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, (Maladaptation) including via increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability to climate change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare, now or in the future. Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence. Migration Movement of a person or a group of persons, either across an international border, or within a state. It is a population movement, encompassing any kind of movement of people, whatever its length, composition, and causes; it includes migration of refugees, displaced persons, economic migrants, and persons moving for other purposes, including family reunification. Multi-level governance The dispersion of governance across multiple levels of jurisdiction and decision-making, including, global, regional, national, and local as well as trans-regional and trans-national levels. Nature-based solution Actions to protect, sustainably manage, and restore natural or modified ecosystems that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits. Pluvial flooding Inundation of land and urban areas caused by heavy precipitation, where the excess water cannot be efficiently absorbed or drained due to factors such as impermeable surfaces and inadequate drainage systems. Reforestation Conversion to forest of land that has previously contained forests but has been converted to some other use. Risk The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets, which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, and capacity. Risk assessment The qualitative and/or quantitative scientific estimation of risks. Runoff The flow of water over the surface or through the subsurface, which typically originates from the part of liquid precipitation and/or snow/ ice melt that does not evaporate, transpire, or refreeze, and returns to water bodies. Sea level rise Chronic and long-term increase of sea levels considering factors such as sterodynamic sea levels, glaciers, land water storage, icesheets, and subsidence. Settlements Places of concentrated human habitation. Settlements can range from isolated rural villages to urban regions with significant global influence. They can include formally planned and informal or illegal habitation and related infrastructure. 22 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Glossary Shared socio-economic Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) have been developed to complement pathways (SSPs) the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). By design, the RCP emission and concentration pathways were stripped of their association with a certain socio-economic development. Different levels of emissions and climate change along the dimension of the RCPs can hence be explored against the backdrop of different socio-economic development pathways (SSPs) on the other dimension in a matrix. This integrative SSP-RCP framework is now widely used in the climate impact and policy analysis literature (see, e.g., http://iconics-ssp. org), where climate projections obtained under the RCP scenarios are analyzed against the backdrop of various SSPs. As several emission updates were due, a new set of emission scenarios was developed in conjunction with the SSPs. Hence, the abbreviation SSP is now used for two things: On the one hand SSP1, SSP2, …, SSP5 is used to denote the five socio-economic scenario families. On the other hand, the abbreviations SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, …, SSP5-8.5 are used to denote the newly developed emission scenarios that are the result of an SSP implementation within an integrated assessment model. Those SSP scenarios are bare of climate policy assumption, but in combination with so-called shared policy assumptions (SPAs), various approximate radiative forcing levels of 1.9, 2.6, …, or 8.5 W m−2 are reached by the end of the century, respectively. Social infrastructure The social, cultural, and financial activities and institutions as well as associated property, buildings and artifacts and policy domains such as social protection, health, and education that support well-being and public life. Social protection In the context of development aid and climate policy, social protection usually describes public and private initiatives that provide income or consumption transfers to the poor, protect the vulnerable against livelihood risks and enhance the social status and rights of the marginalized, with the overall objective of reducing the economic and social vulnerability of poor, vulnerable, and marginalized groups. In other contexts, social protection may be used synonymously with social policy and can be described as all public and private initiatives that provide access to services, such as health, education or housing, or income and consumption transfers to people. Social protection policies protect the poor and vulnerable against livelihood risks and enhance the social status and rights of the marginalized, as well as prevent vulnerable people from falling into poverty. Soft adaptation limit Options are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive action. Sustainable land The stewardship and use of land resources, including soil, water, animals, and management plants, to meet changing human needs, while simultaneously ensuring the long-term productive potential of these resources and the maintenance of their environmental functions. Transformative adaptation Actions aiming at adapting to climate change resulting in significant changes in structure or function that go beyond adjusting existing practices which can be adopted at a large scale, leading to new strategies in a region or resource system. Tropical Cyclones Warm-core low pressure systems associated with a spiral inflow of mass at the bottom level and spiral outflow at the top level. Urbanization Urbanization is a multi-dimensional process that involves at least three simultaneous changes: (1) land use change—transformation of formerly rural settlements or natural land into urban settlements, (2) demographic change— a shift in the spatial distribution of a population from rural to urban areas, and (3) infrastructure change—an increase in provision of infrastructure services including electricity, sanitation, etc. Urbanization often includes changes in lifestyle, culture, and behavior, and thus alters the demographic, economic, and social structure of both urban and rural areas. 23 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Glossary Vector-borne diseases Illnesses transmitted through contact with, or consumption of, unsafe or contaminated water. Vulnerability How vulnerable or how much damage potential hazards could do to an exposed area (a product of hazard and exposure). Water-borne diseases Illnesses transmitted through contact with, or consumption of, unsafe or contaminated water. Well-being A state of existence that fulfils various human needs, including material living conditions and quality of life, as well as the ability to pursue one’s goals, to thrive and to feel satisfied with one’s life. Ecosystem well-being refers to the ability of ecosystems to maintain their diversity and quality. 24 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Abbreviations A&R Adaptation and resilience Active Climate Change Engagement Leading to Resilient, Adaptive, and ACCELERATE Transformative Empowerment ADB Asia Development Bank AFD Agence Française de Développement AMIA Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture AR6 Sixth Assessment Report ARMM Administrative Region in Muslim Mindanao ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BARMM Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao BAU Business as usual BCG Boston Consulting Group BFAR Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources CAR Cordillera Administrative Region CAT DDO Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option CCAP Cold Chain Association of the Philippines CCC Climate Change Commission CCCAB Climate Change Commission Advisory Board CCDR Climate change and disaster risk CCET Climate Change Expenditure Tagging CDRA Climate and disaster risk assessment CFS Climate-resiliency Field Schools CGE Consultative Group of Experts CHED Commission on Higher Education CID Climatic impact-driver CIN Climate Investment Network CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan CMEMP Coastal and Marine Ecosystems Management Program CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project COP Conference of the Parties CORE Communities for Resilience CPAR Community-Based Participatory Action Research on Climate CPH Census of Population and Housing CRA Climate-resilient agriculture 25 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Abbreviations CREVI Comprehensive Roadmap for the Electric Vehicle Industry CRVA Climate risk vulnerability assessments CSO Civil society organization CWRA Comprehensive water resource assessment DA Department of Agriculture DA-ATI Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Training Institute DA-BAFE Department of Agriculture - Bureau of Agricultural and Fisheries Engineering DA-BSWM Department of Agriculture - Bureau of Soils and Water Management DAR Department of Agrarian Reform DBM Department of Budget and Management DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources Department of Environment and Natural Resources Mines and DENR-MGB Geo-Science Bureau DepEd Department of Education DFA Department of Foreign Affairs DFA-UNACOM Department of Foreign Affairs-UNESCO National Commission of the Philippines DFI Development financial institution DHSUD Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development DICT Department of Information and Communications Technology DILG Department of the Interior and Local Government DKI Data and knowledge infrastructure DND Department of National Defense DOE Department of Energy Department of Labor and Employment Integrated Livelihood and Emergency DOLE DILEEP Employment Program DOST Department of Science and Technology DPG Digital public goods DPI Digital public infrastructure DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways DRFI Disaster risk financing and insurance DRR-CCA Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation DRRM Disaster risk reduction and management DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development DTI Department of Trade and Industry 26 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Abbreviations EBA Ecosystem-based adaptation ENIPAS Expanded National Integrated Protected Area System ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EO Executive Order ESG Environmental, social, governance EV Electric vehicle EVSA Expanded vulnerability and suitability analysis FCDO UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office FIES Family Income and Expenditure Survey FLEMMS Functional Literacy, Education, and Mass Media Survey GAA General Appropriations Act GAD Gender and development GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse gas GI Governance and institutions HEI Higher education institution HNRDA Harmonized National Research and Development Agenda ICT Information and communications technology IP Indigenous peoples IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JMC Joint Memorandum Circular LCCAP Local Climate Change Action Plan LGU Local Government Unit LNOB Leaving no one behind M&E Monitoring and evaluation MC Memorandum Circular MDB Multilateral development bank MEAL Monitoring, evaluation, accountability, learning MMDA Metropolitan Manila Development Authority MRB Major River Basin MSME Micro, small, and medium enterprise 27 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Abbreviations NAMRIA National Mapping and Resource Information Authority NAP National Adaptation Plan NAP-NSC National Adaptation Plan-National Steering Committee NBS Nature-based solution NCCA National Commission for Culture and the Arts NCCAP National Climate Change Action Plan NCIP National Commission on Indigenous Peoples NCR National Capital Region (Metro Manila) NCRMF National Climate Risk Management Framework NDC Nationally Determined Contribution ND-GAIN Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative NDRRMC National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NFRDI National Fisheries Research and Development Institute NFSCC National Framework Strategy for Climate Change NGA National government agency NGO Non-government organization NHCP National Historical Commission of the Philippines NIASD National Innovation Agenda and Strategy Document NICCDIES National Integrated Climate Change Database Information and Exchange System NIPAS National Integrated Protected Area System NNC National Nutrition Council NPAAAD Network of Protected Areas for Agricultural and Agro-Industrial Development NSHP National Soil Health Program NSS National Spatial Strategy NWRB National Water Resources Board OCD Office of Civil Defense ODA Official Development Assistance PA Protected area PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration PAME Protected Area Management Enhancement PAP4SCP Philippine Action Plan for Sustainable Consumption and Production PAPs Programs, Activities, and Projects 28 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Abbreviations PAR Philippine Area of Responsibility PBBM Program for Bantay-Peste Brigade and Management PCB Programs Convergence Budgeting PCHRD Philippine Council for Health Research and Development PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDP Philippine Development Plan PEG Progress, Effectiveness, and Gaps PES Payment for Ecosystem Services PGC Participatory Governance Cluster PhilHealth Philippine Health Insurance Corporation PhilMech Philippine Center for Postharvest Development and Mechanization Phil-WAVES Philippine Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services PhiVolcs Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PHP Philippine Peso PIA Philippine Information Agency PIPOL Public investment program PNRI Philippine Nuclear Research Institute POESA Philippine Ocean Economy Satellite Accounts PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience PPP Public-private partnership PRIME Pest Risk Identification and Management Efficiency PSA Philippine Statistics Authority PSE Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. PSF People's Survival Fund PSFR Private Sector Facilities for Resilience PTFCC Philippine Task Force on Climate Change R&D Research and Development RA Republic Act RBME Result Based Monitoring and Evaluation RBMES Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System RCP Representative concentration pathway RRSP Risk resiliency and sustainability program RWHS Rainwater harvesting system 29 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Abbreviations S&P Standard and Poor SAFDZ Strategic Agriculture and Fisheries Development Zone SALINTUBIG Sagana at Ligtas na Tubig para sa Lahat SARAI Smarter Approaches to Reinvigorate Agriculture as an Industry SCB Skills and capacity building SCCF Special Climate Change Fund SDG Sustainable Development Goal SE Stakeholder engagement SEA Southeast Asia SEADRIF Southeast Asia Disaster Risk Facility SLR Sea level rise Strengthening Marine Protected Areas to Conserve Marine Key Biodiversity SMARTSeas Areas in the Philippines SNAP Stocktaking for National Adaptation Planning SSP Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SST Sea surface temperature STC4ID Science and Technology Community-based Program for Inclusive Development SUCs State universities and colleges SWCCO System-Wide Climate Change Office TAMD Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development TC Tropical cyclone TESDA Technical Education and Skills Development Authority TI Technology and innovation TWG Technical working group UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction USD United States Dollar WAISS Water Balance-Assisted Irrigation Decision Support System WASH Water, sanitation, and hygiene WEF World Economic Forum WNP Western North Pacific WQMA Water Quality Management Area 30 Zamboanga, Zamboanga Peninsula Executive Summary National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Executive Summary Necessity and Urgency of Adaptation for the Philippines Climate change presents a complex and multifaceted Additionally, rising temperatures increase the risk of threat to the Philippines. The 2023 World Risk Report health issues, leading to heat-related illnesses such ranked the Philippines as first among countries as heat stroke and cardiovascular stress. Changes in with the highest disaster risk exhibiting complex rainfall and temperature patterns also expand breeding interactions of multiple exposures and high intensities.1 grounds for vector-borne diseases like dengue fever Economically, it inflicts significant harm by escalating and leptospirosis. Climate-induced mobility is a growing the frequency and intensity of climate-induced events, concern, as communities in vulnerable regions are resulting in costly disaster responses, infrastructure compelled to migrate internally or internationally in repairs, and other economic repercussions such as search of improved living conditions, often lacking business disruptions and reduced productivity of the the proper support mechanisms to ensure safety workforce. Despite being a relatively minor contributor and security. to global warming, the economic toll of climate From a natural resource perspective, the Philippines change on the Philippines is substantial. According is one of the 17 mega-biodiverse countries in the to the Philippines Country Climate and Development world, ranked third in marine biodiversity and home Report, by 2030, climate change is projected to to over 25,000 endemic species. The biodiversity of impact 7.6% of the country’s total GDP, amounting to the Philippines faces significant risks from changing PHP1.4 trillion, and rising to 13.6% by 2040. ecosystems and habitats, endangering unique species Climate analytics suggest that the cost of inaction and the critical fisheries sector. Natural assets will stem primarily from infrastructure damage including forests, mangroves, and coral reefs, which due to climate-induced disasters (up to PHP365 provide substantial ecosystem services to the local billion), productivity losses from extreme heat (up community and the world, are at risk of destruction. to PHP466 billion), business interruptions (up to To date, recurring threats to biodiversity such as forest PHP527 billion), and relocation-related costs (up to PHP8.9 fires, degraded mangroves, and coral bleaching have billion) for communities displaced by climate events. been observed. These adverse effects are expected to intensify by 2050, potentially reaching 18% to 25% of GDP. Socially, climate change severely impacts the population, especially vulnerable groups, who bear the brunt of climate-induced displacement, livelihood loss, and heightened inequality. 1 World Risk Report 2022. Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Ruhr University Bochum – Institute for International Law of Peace and Conflict 2023. 32 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 As temperatures continue to rise at rates This could result in up to 2 million Filipinos being exceeding global averages, the potential impact impacted, with PHP80 billion at stake from extreme on the Philippines becomes increasingly dire. Four sea levels. climatic-impact drivers hold significant adverse potential • Extreme precipitation: Rainfall patterns are impacts for the nation: Increased temperature and expected to become more extreme, leading to droughts, Sea level rise and extreme sea levels, Extreme intensified rainfall throughout the year, especially in precipitation, and wind patterns and tropical cyclones. the eastern sections of the country. Within the 2030 If the world continues on its current development path and decade, up to 4.8 million Filipinos could be affected the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by pluvial flooding (flooding resulting from excessive ‘worst-case’ scenario, SSP5-8.5, becomes a reality, the rainfall) and an additional 250,000 impacted by fluvial Philippines could face the following challenges in the flooding (flooding from overflowing rivers and water next three decades: streams). Additionally, there are potential economic • Increased temperatures and drought: The losses of PHP274 billion from pluvial flooding and number of Filipinos potentially impacted by extreme PHP13 billion from fluvial flooding due to extreme heat (i.e., at heat indices greater than 42°C), precipitation. A significant 18% of those vulnerable is projected to reach up to 11 million by 2030 to pluvial flooding belong to lower income groups, and may increase to 74 million by 2050. A heat potentially lacking the capacity to adequately address index above 42 degrees is classified as ‘Danger’, these challenges. where heat cramps, exhaustion and heat stroke • Wind patterns and tropical cyclones: While are likely to be experienced with continued the frequency of tropical cyclones might decrease exposure. Moreover, productivity loss due to heat in a warmer world, their intensity will significantly stress may reach up to PHP466 billion within the increase. The average maximum wind speed 2030 decade and soar to PHP870 billion within of typhoons and super typhoons is expected to the 2050 decade. This equates to 3% and 5% rise by 29% within the 2030 decade and 33% GDP in 2030 and 2050, respectively, with outdoor within the 2050 decade. Approximately six million sectors such as Agriculture and Construction being Filipinos could experience more than one the most affected. Furthermore, drought substantially tropical cyclone occurrence with maximum affects biodiversity, leading to diseases, mortality of winds exceeding 118 km/h (typhoon and/ plants and animals, and other devastating effects, or super typhoon), leading to estimated including coral bleaching. infrastructure damages of about PHP83 billion and • Sea level rise: The rate of sea level rise is expected PHP78 billion in 2030 and 2050, respectively. to exceed the global average, possibly doubling In this convergence of economic strain, social by 2060. Approximately 150,000 Filipinos could vulnerability, and ecological disruption, climate change face permanent displacement due to sea-level rise is expected to exact a heavy toll on the Philippines. by 2040, leading to potential economic losses of This underscores the urgent need for climate action, PHP18 billion. The rise in sea levels will also affect adaptation, and resilience-building efforts to ensure the natural systems, resulting in impacts like mangrove sustainable development and well-being of the country degradation, coral reef bleaching and saltwater and its population. intrusion. • Extreme sea levels: Extreme sea levels (acute, temporary, and short-term increases in sea levels such as storm surge, astronomical tides, waves, and swash) may intensify, potentially rising by 35% within the 2030 decade. 33 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Executive Summary The Philippine government recognizes the significant challenges posed by climate change and has taken measures to address its impacts, adopting major international conventions and translating these into national policies and programs across various sectors. The creation of the Climate Change Commission (CCC) as the lead policy-making body highlights this commitment. The CCC is tasked with coordinating, monitoring, evaluating, and ensuring the integration of climate change considerations into national, local, and sectoral development plans in collaboration with various stakeholders. However, there are still substantial challenges to overcome in the pursuit of transformative development pathways. To facilitate effective mid- and long-term adaptation planning and integrate adaptation into relevant policies and programs, the Philippines initiated its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process in 2023. Formulating this NAP represents a major step in the country’s commitment to building adaptive capacity using a whole-of-government and society approach. It provides a guideline for understanding climate risks in the Philippines, grounded on the best available climate science and analytics. This data-driven approach is strengthened by the identification of adaptation strategies and the necessary enablers to mobilize action. The NAP is expected to be further refined and downscaled, recognizing that ground-level actions, consistent with the science-policy-action continuum and supported by adequate investments and capacities, form the cornerstone of long-term climate change planning geared towards a low carbon, inclusive, sustainable, and transformative development path for the Filipino people. The NAP Vision, Objectives and Approach The vision of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) of the Philippines is to establish the country’s adaptation priorities at a national level, with the goal of enhancing adaptive capacities and increasing resilience in communities, ecosystems and the economy against natural hazards and climate change. It aims to steadily reduce climate-related losses and damages and optimize opportunities for mitigation, facilitate transformative adaptation, and promote resilient, sustainable development. The objective of the NAP is to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts by bolstering adaptive capacity, fostering resilience, and integrating adaptation into relevant policies and programs. It strives to define an adaptation pathway that incorporates sectoral and national development priorities, provides guidance for effective public spending, enables access to multilateral funding, and attracts private capital for adaptation efforts. The following approach and guiding principles have been applied in the development of the NAP: • The NAP has been developed in compliance with UNFCCC guidelines and localized to the unique challenges and characteristics of the Philippines. • It places a strong emphasis on a data-driven approach, utilizing the best available climate science and analytics at the time of writing to better understand the potential impacts of climate change, thus supporting more informed decision-making in the future. • The plan builds upon existing knowledge and mechanisms within the Philippines, acknowledging ongoing efforts at various levels that contribute to adaptation and the need for consolidation, streamlining and continuous iteration. • The NAP promotes active and participatory stakeholder involvement and has been developed through extensive consultations, including national expert consultations and workshops. It has benefited from the collective knowledge and experience of diverse stakeholders across the country, ensuring collaboration and collective ownership. • The NAP focuses on analyses and strategies at the national level, which subsequently will be downscaled at local and sectoral levels. 34 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Executive Summary Adaptation Strategy and Priorities To effectively build resilience, minimize climate-related 3. Empower local governments and communities loss and damage and enhance adaptive capacity towards to take adaptation action: This strategy involves achieving resilient and sustainable socioeconomic enabling local governments and communities development, eight (8) key sectors have been identified to implement adaptation solutions by enhancing as the focal points for adaptation action: their understanding of adaptation and resilience 1. Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Security and equipping them with access to climate data, resources, and tools. 2. Water Resources 4. Mainstream integrated adaptation governance: 3. Health This strategy underscores the need for fostering 4. Ecosystems and Biodiversity coordinated collaboration among stakeholders, 5. Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement, policymakers, and institutions across horizontal and Migration and vertical chains of command regarding 6. Land Use and Human Settlements adaptation priorities. 7. Livelihoods and Industries 5. Scale up nature-based solutions: This strategy 8. Energy, Transport, and Communications emphasizes the importance of prioritizing While this NAP outlines adaptation priorities per nature-based solutions where possible sector, it also recognizes the inextricable links to enhance climate resilience and protect between these sectors. It emphasizes the need for vulnerable populations. an integrated approach to adaptation, acknowledging that The best-available climate analytics, taking into account disruptions in any sector can trigger cascading impacts physical, social, and economic dimensions, was used on other interrelated systems. The NAP emphasizes to understand the potential impact of climate change on the value of promoting a synergistic approach that each sector. The sections below provide an overview maximizes co-benefits across sectors. of the sector-specific contexts, historical and future There are five (5) thematic cross-sector adaptation projected climate change impacts, and consequently, strategies that the Philippines will focus on. priority adaptation outcomes. These themes are reflected in the sector-specific adaptation strategies detailed below. 1. Strengthen infrastructure resilience: This strategy focuses on reinforcing critical infrastructure across various sectors to withstand adverse effects and minimize service disruptions caused by climate change impacts. 2. Safeguard livelihoods with social protection and regulations: This strategy centers on actions and mechanisms that protect the livelihoods of populations from the impacts of climate change using social safety nets and climate-responsive regulations. 35 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Executive Summary With these pressing impacts, the adaptation theme for Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Security is Securing Food Supply: Nurture Nature, Sustain Livelihoods. The strategies identified in this NAP aim to attain three (3) key outcomes: 1. Productive and resilient agriculture and fisheries are achieved. 2. Natural resources critical for agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries are conserved. 3. Livelihoods of farmers and fisherfolk amidst Bukidnon, Northern Mindanao Region climate change are secured. 2. Water Resources 1. Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Security Water resources are essential for human survival The production of crops, livestock, aquaculture, and as well as economic activity, supporting agricultural fisheries in the Philippines is critical to food security, as irrigation, fisheries production, hydropower generation, 75% of food consumed in the country is locally produced. and industrial production. Due to a rapidly growing Moreover, agriculture and fisheries constitute a significant population and a lack of appropriate planning and sector for the economy, recently contributing 8.9% to investment into water systems, the national water stress GDP and employing a quarter of the nation’s workforce. levels have surged to twice the global average—12.4 However, the sector faces challenges in resource bases, million Filipinos lacked basic access to drinking water in labor, capital, productivity, and policy. As a result, farmers 2015, while 26 million Filipinos were without access to and fisherfolk have the highest poverty incidence rates basic sanitation. This situation is poised to deteriorate in the Philippines, at 30% and 30.6%, with the impacts of climate change, leading to cascading respectively as of 2021. effects across various sectors. For instance, in the Agriculture and Fisheries have historically been among health sector, polluted water sources are a major cause the sectors most vulnerable to climate change and, of waterborne diseases in the Philippines. without intervention, will continue to face severe impacts The current state of water supply and quality, combined in the coming decades. Increased temperatures, with the water infrastructure network, makes the droughts and erratic rainfall are projected to reduce nation’s water resources particularly vulnerable to yield across crops, livestock, and fishery catches. climate change. Region VII, for example, is projected Between 2030 and 2040, yields of rice and corn are to receive over 400 mm less rainfall per year between expected to decline by 6% and 19% respectively. At 2030 to 2040 compared to 1991 to 2020, even though the same time, tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall it already faces an absolute water scarcity level of events are poised to damage farmland and fishponds. water availability per capita per year and a third of An estimated 7.5% of agricultural land is projected to its population lacks access to a safe water source. be exposed to pluvial floods, and 15% of fishponds This indicates that drier dry seasons are likely are anticipated to face extreme sea levels throughout to exacerbate conditions in areas already under the 2030s. These cascading impacts, combined with water stress. the high poverty incidence rate that can lead to poor nutrition, malnutrition or starvation, and the proximity of fisherfolk to coastlines, intensify the vulnerabilities of Filipinos reliant on agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries for their livelihood. 36 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 On the other hand, wetter wet seasons and more intense For example, after a heavy rainfall, poor drainage cyclone damage could affect water infrastructure. In systems can lead to contaminated water, which might 2009, the effects of Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) on water result in a projected 58% increase in leptospirosis cases infrastructure resulted in a 92% decrease in water supply in the 2030s compared to historical rates. capability. This is expected to continue throughout the Indirectly, climate risks may damage health networks decade from 2030 to 2040. During this period, nearly and infrastructure. By the next decade, it is estimated 10% of water infrastructure, which includes water tanks that 8% of vital healthcare infrastructure will be and towers, dams, and treatment plants, is projected to vulnerable to pluvial floods, which particularly affects be exposed to pluvial floods and cyclones, leading to primary healthcare facilities in the Philippines that are direct damages exceeding PHP11 billion annually. not designed to withstand extreme climate events. With the vulnerabilities faced by both built and natural To ensure the continuity of optimal health outcomes, water sources across the nation, the adaptation theme the reliability of interoperable information systems for Water Resources is Safeguard Water Security: and a strong health governance will be crucial. Secure and Sanitary Water for All. Strategies identified Guided by a vision of adopting a holistic approach to in this NAP aim to attain three (3) key outcomes: improve health outcomes, reduce health inequalities, and 1. Inclusivity and resilience are built into water achieve universal healthcare—and bolstered by existing infrastructure. programs and policies addressing social determinants 2. Water supply and quality are protected from shifts of health—the adaptation theme for this sector is in weather patterns. Climate-Adaptive Healthcare for All: Protecting 3. Watersheds and surrounding ecosystems are Health & Well-Being of Filipinos. Strategies identified protected and properly managed. in this NAP aim to attain four (4) key outcomes: 1. Patient mortality and morbidity from 3. Health climate-sensitive diseases are minimized Over 110 million Filipinos rely on the healthcare through primary care that has been strengthened system to effectively anticipate, respond to, and community health workers that have and recover from climate-related disasters and been empowered. climate-induced diseases. With only 56% of public 2. Seamless access to climate- and health facilities sufficiently stocked with selected gender-responsive health services is underpinned essential medicines and less than 25% of cities and by resilient health networks. municipalities having health worker density at 3. An interoperable information system to internationally recommended levels, the capacity of monitor and evaluate health vulnerability the health sector to respond effectively to sudden and capacity is developed. and increased healthcare demands is limited, 4. Resilient, interconnected, and community-driven disproportionately impacting low-income populations health governance at all levels is achieved. who cannot afford private healthcare. Climate change exacerbates existing health inequalities, having both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Directly, exposure to extreme weather events can lead to an increased incidence of vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases, and heat-related illnesses. 37 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 4. Ecosystems and Biodiversity Grounded in national policies and existing programs The country is among the 17 mega-biodiverse that aim to maximize and sustain the benefits derived nations in the world, its natural ecosystems from ecosystems, the adaptation theme for Ecosystems not only providing livelihoods across key local and Biodiversity is Safeguard and Nurture industries like aquaculture, agriculture, fisheries, Biodiversity: Restore and Sustain Natural Assets. and tourism but also protecting communities Strategies identified in this NAP aim to attain three (3) from climate hazards. In particular, coral reefs key outcomes: (~70k PHP/ha annually), forests (~200k PHP/ha annually), 1. Ecosystems accounts are developed and regularly and mangroves (~200k PHP/ha annually) are estimated updated to monitor and enhance regulating to generate billions of pesos in ecosystem services services for adaptation. every year. Over the past decades, these ecosystems 2. Biodiversity within various habitats and have been heavily exploited due to both anthropogenic ecosystems is protected and rehabilitated. activities and climatic-impact drivers, placing both the 3. Communities are enabled and empowered to lead ecosystems themselves and the communities reliant on ecological management. them for livelihood and protection at risk. 5. Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement, and Migration Extreme climate events and risks are shaping migration patterns in the country. It is estimated that over 15 million Filipinos were displaced due to 245 climate disaster events between 2020 and 2022. Particularly vulnerable to displacement and migration from sudden- onset climate events (e.g., tropical cyclones, etc.) and slow-onset climate risks (e.g., rising sea levels and associated adverse impacts, etc.) are the 14 to 17 million indigenous peoples who inhabit the Philippines. These IPs belong to 110 different ethnolinguistic groups, with El Nido, Palawan 73% of all IPs falling within the 40% poorest population. Addressing climate-induced human mobility through the Ecosystems worldwide are especially vulnerable to lens of cultural heritage preservation is crucial when climate change, and the Philippines is no exception. planning for adaptation measures for the Philippines. The intensification of severe weather events can Climate change poses significant threats to the well- lead to the deterioration of habitats and disruption of being of migrants and indigenous peoples. Among ecological balance, further endangering various species. the various climatic-impact drivers, tropical cyclones For instance, sea level rise—known to cause mangrove and pluvial flooding are expected to affect the largest forests to retreat or even disappear—is projected to magnitude of populations. In the 2030s, approximately affect 32% of the nation’s mangroves in the 2030s 5.3 million people per year could be exposed to at least and 48% in the 2050s. Rising temperatures, which one Category 4 or Category 5 tropical cyclone. Notably, are among the most significant by climatic threats, are 11% of these are impoverished populations with limited expected to impact 19% of Philippine coral reefs during resources to resist, adapt, or recover from voluntary or the 2030s. Moreover, over a third of Philippine forests, involuntary migration. The displacement of indigenous highly vulnerable to extreme rainfall and its resultant communities from their cultural lands affects their way of flooding, are anticipated to face pluvial and fluvial life, as lands are integral to their cultural identity, livelihoods, floods. This exposure might increase to nearly 50% spiritual practices, social structures, and traditional by the 2050s. knowledge systems. 38 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Migration resulting from slow-onset climate events, More than 80% of land (approximately 180,000 km2) like sea level rise and its associated adverse impacts is projected to be exposed to at least one Category 4 also pose a significant climate risk to this sector. In the or Category 5 cyclone in both the 2030s and 2050s. 2030s, an estimated 150,000 Filipinos per year might be Additionally, over 55% of land or about 170,000 km2, exposed to sea level rise. is projected to experience pluvial flooding in the 2030s. With a projected increase in instances of climate- Given these challenges, it is imperative to overhaul induced human mobility, the adaptation theme for this the country’s approach to land use and settlements sector is Safeguarding Communities & Culture: planning. The shift should be anchored in transformative Durable Solutions for Climate-Induced Mobility. multi-level governance, emphasizing the enhancement Strategies identified in this NAP aim to attain of community adaptive capacities to withstand climate three (3) key outcomes: risks. 1. Adaptive physical, social, and economic support is Grounded in national policy anchors and existing provided, made readily available, and accessible programs related to this sector, the adaptation for populations displaced due to sudden-onset theme is Data-Driven Land Use and Settlements: events. Conventionalizing Robust, Evidence-Based 2. Robust preparatory and reintegration support Planning. Strategies identified in this NAP aim to attain is put in place for populations impacted by three (3) key outcomes: slow-onset climate events. 1. Data-driven, climate-focused land use and urban 3. Cultural heritage is preserved, protected, planning is established. and rehabilitated, with safeguards against 2. Adaptive capacities of communities are improved, climate risks established. and resilient, inclusive, decent, and affordable human settlements are achieved. 6. Land Use and Human Settlements 3. Transformative and gender-responsive multi-level Land use and human settlements play a vital role in climate governance is activated. the development and sustainability of the Philippines. With 60% of Philippine cities located along the coast, 7. Livelihoods and Industries the country’s coastal areas and low-lying regions are Resilience must be built within the Philippines’ key especially susceptible to climate risks, where an estimated industries to protect the country’s economic and 5.4 million Filipinos live. In addition, rapid urbanization has social stability in the face of increasing climate led to deviations from planned land use and an increase hazards and risks. The industries that heavily contribute in informal settlements in areas prone to hazards. to the Philippines’ GDP, particularly Manufacturing As a result, this sector currently grapples with complex, (17.2%), Tourism (6.2%), and Professional Services compounding challenges concerning capacity, land use, (6.1%), must be prioritized. This is essential in protecting access to shelter and services, connectivity, equity, the livelihood of over 12 million Filipinos who rely on and justice. these sectors. Focus should be given to MSMEs, The escalating impacts of climate change which constitute more than 95% of the establishments directly jeopardizes land and human settlements. in the Philippines, and often lack the capacity to invest By 2040, a projected 160 km2 of land is expected to in climate-resilient infrastructure, technology, and be permanently inundated due to sea level rise. adaptation measures. This means an estimated 85,000 residential homes may be submerged, many of which belong to informal settlements and coastal communities. Tropical Cyclones and pluvial flooding also rank among the CIDs threatening land use and human settlements. 39 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Executive Summary Climate change exerts extensive impacts on The strategies identified in this NAP aim to attain three key industries, which in turn affects the stability (3) key outcomes: of livelihoods of Filipinos. For example, in the 1. Key industry infrastructure and production facilities manufacturing industry, critical industry infrastructure are protected. might become inundated or damaged by extreme 2. Due diligence in occupational safety and hazard weather events, leading to disruptions in production and regulations is enhanced, and social protection for supply chains. It is projected that 6% of manufacturing workers in both the formal and informal economies infrastructure will be exposed to tropical cyclones and is strengthened. extreme winds during 2030s. Beyond costs associated 3. Industry operations and productivity continuity are with physical damage, the stability of this sector is sustained amidst climate risks. threatened by disruptions in production and supply chains, equipment loss and workforce interruptions. 8. Energy, Transport, and Communications The infrastructure sector, comprising energy, transport, and communications, constitutes critical systems that empower and interconnect industries, businesses, and households, facilitating economic activities and growth while offering communities access to essential services. However, rapid economic and population growth, combined with inadequately implemented programs, has led to overloaded infrastructure systems. As a result, the Philippines has only 1/3 the average kWh per capita Davao City and one of the highest people-to-telecom tower ratios, exceeding 6,000. These infrastructure systems rank Similar risks are projected for professional services among the most vulnerable to climate change globally, infrastructure (5%) and tourism infrastructure (5%). endangering various communities and organizations Rising temperatures and drought are also forecasted reliant on these services. Future climate changes may to affect labor productivity in these key sectors. The alter the demand for these infrastructure services. Thus, manufacturing industry is projected to face PHP36 it is crucial to strike a balance between adaptation and billion in productivity losses, with an additional PHP2 mitigation efforts, especially since the current energy and billion expected for professional services. Beyond these transport systems are major greenhouse gas emitters. productivity losses and damages to industry infrastructure resulting in in operational disruptions, it is essential to evaluate the consequences for the livelihoods and well- being of Filipino workers. The continuity of industries is intertwined with the stability of employment opportunities, income sources, and social support systems that back the workforce. In line with the Philippines’ long-term vision to revitalize industries and reinvigorate services, the adaptation theme for this sector is Embrace Resilience: Fortifying Industry for Economic Prosperity. Laoag City, Ilocos Region 40 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Climate change is set to exacerbate vulnerabilities The economic cost of inaction, estimated at PHP645 within the Energy, Transport, and Communications billion per year across these eight sectors, is starkly sector, as it will impact not only the infrastructure evident. Four of the eight sectors—Land Use and Human of these services but also the demand profile Settlements, Energy, Transport, and Communications, for services across these systems. In terms Livelihood and Industries, and Agriculture and of infrastructure, 8% of the energy infrastructure, Fisheries—face economic costs of inaction sizeable which includes electric lines and poles, substations, enough to spur immediate action and present a compelling and generators, is projected to face extreme climate need to accelerate adaptation efforts. However, it is events, resulting in over PHP3 billion direct damages equally crucial to consider the needs of women, youth, annually throughout the 2030s. An estimated 5% indigenous peoples, local communities, differently of roads, bridges, railways, airports, seaports, and abled, and others with special needs. The indirect other transport terminals are forecasted to encounter social costs of inaction, such as health impacts, loss climate hazards in the same period, resulting in around of ecosystem services, conflict and security risks, PHP37 billion in direct damages annually. and psychological and social stress, should not be Further, 5% of the communications infrastructure, overlooked. While these costs are not fully quantified in encompassing telecom towers and data centers, is socioeconomic models, a comprehensive assessment expected to be at risk from climate hazards, incurring might reveal that these indirect consequences can direct damages of PHP350 million annually from 2030 be as detrimental, if not more, to the Philippines than to 2040. Beyond infrastructure challenges, rising direct impacts. For sectors such as Water Resources, temperatures and drought are projected to modify the Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement, and demand profile for services provided by these systems, Migration, Ecosystems and Biodiversity, and Food potentially reducing the efficiency of infrastructure2. Security, the approach to adaptation action varies. On Grounded in national policies and existing programs that top of adaptation actions, there is a need for next-level aim to ensure secure access to the services provided impact assessments to trace pathways on how initial by these infrastructure systems amidst climate change, climate change impacts trigger secondary and tertiary the adaptation theme for Energy, Transport, and consequences. Communication is Protect Critical Assets: Securing Additionally, key considerations must be integrated Access and Socioeconomic Connectivity. Strategies as the adaptation priorities are downscaled. identified in this NAP aim to attain two (2) key outcomes: First, adaptation strategies in this document that are 1. Comprehensive planning and response crafted at a national level are intended to be tailored mechanisms across energy, transport, to the specific contexts of regions and localities, and communication infrastructure systems aligning with localized projected climate impacts. are established. Second, the NAP recognizes the critical importance 2. Sufficient capacity of energy, transport, of integrating sectoral adaptation strategies as a and communication infrastructure services to cornerstone of effective climate resilience planning. meet evolving demand induced by climate change Isolated sectoral approaches may lead to unintended is achieved. consequences and potential maladaptation, where A comprehensive estimation of the impacts efforts in one sector inadvertently undermine progress in across the climatic-impact drivers to each sector another. Lastly, beyond just considering maladaptation, was conducted to identify the optimal timing and localized adaptation implementation should consider approach the Philippines may take. both soft and hard limits. Emphasizing the recognition of the spectrum of adaptation actions is essential not only for enhancing the nation’s resilience to climate change but also for harnessing co-benefits with climate mitigation efforts. 2 Such as the 2019 heatwave that led to the reduced cooling capacity of the Calaca coal-fired power plant. 41 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Executive Summary Implementation Given the NAP’s ambitious agenda to foster climate 6. Adaptation Financing: Deploying effective resilience in the Philippines, its implementation will strategies to secure, allocate, and optimize be complex and require a whole of country approach. diverse financial resources while balancing Collaboration, coordination, and participation will involve considerations such as climate justice, various government agencies, levels of government, the country’s development goals, and the sectors, and stakeholders. prevailing fiscal constraints. While sources To ensure effective implementation, six (6) key such as domestic public funding, international enablers have been identified as key for success development funding and private sector might in the Philippines: be readily identifiable, several obstacles such as 1. Governance and Institutions: Establishing a information gaps, limited bankability, and capacity purpose-fit governance structure to oversee the NAP gaps and inadequate policies hinder the progress and integrate adaptation seamlessly into existing of adaptation financing today. plans, policies, and strategies. This ensures a whole- Considering the urgency of adaptation in the of-government approach, enhancing accountability, Philippines, as well as the identified adaptation ownership, and optimizing resource allocation. priorities and necessary enablers, the implementation 2. Stakeholder Engagement: Identifying and roadmap for the NAP has outlined the following key engaging all relevant actors crucial to the initiatives needed: NAP’s success, including the private sector, 1. Clearly define roles, responsibilities, and local communities, and at-risk groups such as institutional arrangements for the NAP to indigenous populations, the elderly, youth, and mainstream adaptation and resilience (A&R) lower-income groups. It emphasizes that the NAP is in the national agenda. gender-responsive and promotes women’s 2. Enhance stakeholder engagement and empowerment in climate action. This approach communication strategies to amplify NAP ensures inclusivity, collaboration, meaningful awareness and understanding, and to support engagement, and effective outcomes. gender mainstreaming in adaptation. 3. Skills and Capacity Building: Assessing the skills 3. Downscale climate analytics and enhance and capacity gaps among those responsible for adaptation data management and application to advancing the NAP and addressing these gaps support more informed decision-making. through capacity building and knowledge sharing. 4. Translate adaptation strategies into a Capacity building extends to human, institutional, sectoral-level program/project portfolio, financial, and organizational capacities. prioritizing based on social, economic, and 4. Data and Knowledge Infrastructure: Establishing ecosystem benefits for informed decision-making. a robust foundation of data and knowledge critical 5. Develop a national adaptation investment for an effective NAP process. This facilitates a strategy to mobilize resources needed for adaptation comprehensive understanding of exposure, enabling programs. the prioritization of impactful strategies. 6. Translate adaptation strategies into a 5. Technology and Innovation: Continuously provincial-level program/project portfolio, advancing technology and innovation to address prioritizing based on social, economic, and the consequences of climate change. This involves ecosystem benefits for informed decision-making. localizing global technology and innovation to suit 7. Enhance capability building, research, the Philippine context and scaling up local solutions and innovation on the topic of climate beyond specific use cases. change adaptation. 8. Develop an effective Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability, and Learning (MEAL) system for climate change adaptation. 42 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Executive Summary Summary La Trinidad, Benguet As a nation that has long grappled with the devastating impacts of climate change, the Philippines recognizes that prioritizing climate adaptation is an urgent and immediate necessity. The NAP serves as a foundational framework for fostering a climate-resilient and prosperous future for the nation. It stands as a resounding call to action, urging all stakeholders to unite and chart a transformative course in the face of climate challenges. By making adaptation a priority and implementing the strategies outlined in the NAP, the country aims not only to manage mounting risks but also to harness limited yet tangible opportunities for sustainable economic growth and social development. The Philippines encourages the active support of other nations, financial institutions, philanthropic organizations, international and regional development banks, and other stakeholders to bolster these efforts through the contribution of resources, expertise, and financial support to the adaptation agenda. This call to action aligns with the principles of climate justice and echoes a fundamental reality: the fight against climate change is a collective effort. An adaptation plan for the Philippines is, in essence, an adaptation plan for the rest of the world. 43 Manila, National Capital Region Introduction National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Introduction This document offers a comprehensive insight into the potential socioeconomic and physical impacts of Introduction climate change on the Philippines, outlines the country’s adaptation priorities, and presents a high-level roadmap for implementation. Chapter 1: This chapter delves into the background and significance of the NAP for the Philippines. It elucidates how the NAP aligns with the country’s existing climate change policies and frameworks. It defines the purpose, vision, and objectives of the NAP, introducing a strategic framework that pinpoints the key outcomes in terms of adaptation and resilience for the country. Additionally, it describes the process through which the NAP was developed and the guiding principles that inspired its inception. Chapter 2: This chapter provides an overview of the national circumstances, including geographical features, population, economy, and governance structures. These create nuances to consider when discussing adaptation and resilience strategies that are fit for purpose. Chapter 3: In this chapter, the NAP examines the impacts of climate change on the Philippines. It presents a historical perspective on the country’s observed climate change and offers insights into future climate scenarios based on the best available climate science and analytics at the time of study. This analysis aids in the understanding of the potential socioeconomic consequences of climate change for the country and identifies the geographical areas within the Philippines that are most impacted. Chapter 4: Focusing on the most critical sectors for the Philippines as identified in the NAP strategic framework, this chapter outlines the country’s adaptation priorities. For each sector, the significance of the sector to the Philippines is discussed, the challenges posed by climate change are explained, and various adaptation strategies tailored to each sector’s needs are defined and integrated to avoid maladaptation and acknowledge limits to adaptation. Chapter 5: This chapter outlines the implementation arrangements necessary for the success of the NAP. It includes key enablers required to drive the NAP forward, a high-level implementation roadmap, and describes future monitoring and evaluation mechanisms necessary to effectively track progress. A supplementary Appendix document accompanies insights to this main document, providing detailed information on climatic-impact driver model methodologies, validation, and references. It also covers sector-specific programs and policies aligned with the NAP development, stakeholders consulted in the NAP development process, methodologies used for sector-specific impact models, and references to international frameworks and standards. Developed at a national level, the NAP is envisioned to evolve through an iterative process from analyses and strategies that provide more specific geographical and sectoral contexts, as the Philippines continues its progress on the adaptation agenda. 45 Banaue Rice Terraces, Ifugao 01 Multidecadal NAP Strategic Framework National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 1. Multidecadal Strategic Framework

1.1 NAP purpose, vision, objectives, and strategic framework

1.1.1 Purpose The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)3 underscored in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) the Multidecadal Strategic importance of strengthened adaptation to benefit the most vulnerable in an increasingly warming planet. As a country that consistently ranks high in terms of climate change impacts and disaster risks, it is crucial for the Philippines to prioritize adaptation planning and implementation. Framework As early as 2010, the Conference of the Parties (COP16)4 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the Cancun Adaptation Framework to guide countries in adopting National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) “as a means of identifying medium- and long-term adaptation needs and developing and implementing strategies and programs to address those needs.” Under the Paris Agreement5, Parties are encouraged to undertake the process of NAP formulation and implementation with consideration to vulnerable peoples, places, and ecosystems. The NAP serves as both a “document” and a “process” to be lodged before the UNFCCC Registry, requiring regular tracking and updating based on the planning, monitoring, and evaluation cycle, as may be driven by lessons learned from progress, effectiveness of early implementation, and feedback, all anchored on the best available science and unique national circumstances. Bonn Climate Change Conference 3 IPCC (2023). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The report can be accessed through this link. 4 Held on 29 November to 10 December 2010 in Cancun, Mexico 5 Article 7 of the Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC (2015). Full text can be accessed through this link. 47 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The main objective of the NAP is to reduce vulnerability The Climate Change Act established the National to the impacts of climate change by building the adaptive Framework Strategy for Climate Change (NFSCC), capacity and resilience of communities. It also aims a policy framework that emphasizes the Philippines’ to facilitate the coherent integration of climate change approach to climate change. It focuses on adaptation adaptation into relevant new and existing policies, as the anchor strategy, with mitigation being pursued as programs, and activities. The NAP should mainstream support to adaptation efforts. adaptation across many sectors at different levels As part of the NFSCC, the National Climate Change (national, subnational, regional, and local), incorporate Action Plan (NCCAP) was formulated to outline the both medium- and long-term strategies, and strengthen long-term program and strategies for climate change policies and frameworks through collaborative adaptation within the national development plan. Multidecadal Strategic partnership and cooperation. Building on the NCCAP, the NAP process pursues The IPCC AR6 highlighted the gaps in adaptation the National Climate Risk Management Framework for some ecosystems and regions that have reached (NCRMF), which acknowledges the importance of Framework their soft and hard limits6 in terms of adaptability. risk profiling, assessment, and management needed Further, the increasing evidence of maladaptation to increase the adaptive capacity of communities. across regions and sectors impels multi-sectoral, This includes technology development and transfer, multi-actor, and inclusive planning for long-term capacity building and the projection of future and multiple climate change to minimize maladaptation. impact scenarios. It is crucial that the NAP process should be country-driven, gender-responsive, participatory, fully 1.1.2 Vision transparent, and inclusive of all stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, academia and science, The Philippine NAP establishes the adaptation priorities indigenous peoples, communities, ecosystems, and of the country at the national level geared towards other vulnerable groups. enhancing the adaptive capacities and increasing Through the NAP, countries can effectively guide the resilience of communities and ecosystems to natural public sector and partner stakeholders on the needed hazards and climate change, while steadily reducing speed and scale for providing and delivering the means of climate-related loss and damage, and optimizing implementation (MOI) and support in the form of climate mitigation opportunities. finance, technology transfer and development, and capacity building, to be provided by developed country Parties under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. In the Philippines, the NAP process is spearheaded by the Climate Change Commission (CCC). Pursuant to Republic Act No. 9729 or the Climate Change Act, the CCC is the lead policy-making body of the government responsible for coordinating, monitoring, and evaluating government programs on climate change. It is tasked to ensure the mainstreaming of climate change in national, local, and sectoral development People’s Survival Fund (PSF) Awarding plans, in coordination with relevant government agencies, partners, and stakeholders. 6 Soft limits to adaptation are those solutions that may not be currently available but could be made available in the future through enabling conditions such as finance and technology while hard limits to adaptation are those already unattainable. 48 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

1.1.3 Objectives 1.1.4 Objectives The overarching goal of the NAP is to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts by building its adaptive capacity and resilience and integrating adaptation measures into relevant policies and programs. It aims to delineate an adaptation pathway that integrates sectoral and national development priorities, providing a framework for public spending planning, multilateral funding access, and raising private Multidecadal Strategic capital for adaptation. Specifically, the NAP aims to: a. Identify priority high-risk climate change Figure 1.1.4.1 NAP Strategic Framework Framework vulnerable areas in the Philippines, based on Note: A larger version of the figure is available in Appendix 6 solid data and evidence, which will then serve as the The NAP Strategic Framework builds on the principles, basis for conducting detailed risk assessments and priorities, concepts, structure, strategies, and developing adaptation programs; approaches outlined in the NFSCC 2010 to 2022 and b. Provide guidance on integrating adaptation the NCCAP 2011 to 2028. considerations into planning, coordination, and Notably, the adaptation7 and mitigation8 pillars under the implementation processes at all levels of government NFSCC, alongside the seven (7) thematic priorities of and across society and ecosystems, and the NCCAP9 serve as bases for the identification of the c. Harmonize national strategies with international Sectoral Outcomes 1 to 8 of the NAP given the importance commitments for developing robust medium- of goods and services in achieving the overall objective and long-term adaptation plans to build the country’s of “steadily reducing climate-related loss and damage adaptive capacity and resilience. and to build the country’s adaptive capacity towards transformative resilience and sustainable economic development by 2050.” The aspirational period of 205010 aligns with the country climate change scenario considered under the NFSCC. Consequently, the SF endeavors to incorporate the UNFCCC-recommended convergence11 in adaptation planning among the post-2050 frameworks such as the Paris Agreement, Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction, and Sustainable Development Goals in ensuring that the NAP acts as a reference instrument for the country’s long-term development agenda, moving beyond reactive approach towards proactive, Conference of Parties (COP) Convention progressive, and anticipatory one. 7 Adaptation Pillars, NFSCC: Enhanced Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments, Integrated Ecosystems-based Management, Climate-Responsive Agriculture, Water Governance and Management, and Disaster Risk Reduction Management 8 Mitigation Pillars, NFSCC: Energy Efficiency and Conservation, Renewable Energy, Environmentally Sustainable Transport, Sustainable Infrastructure, National REDD+ Strategy, and Waste Management 9 Thematic Priorities of the NCCAP: Food Security, Water Sufficiency, Ecological and Environmental Stability, Human Security, Climate-Friendly Industries and Services, Sustainable Energy, and Knowledge and Capacity Development 10 NFSCC, p.9, citing a document prepared by PAGASA for the Philippines’ Second National Communication on Climate Change 11 UNFCCC. Opportunities and options for integrating climate change adaptation with the Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. Technical paper by the secretariat. / UNFCCC/TP/2017/3. 49 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The SF also promotes locally led efforts while In moving towards a “societal transformation-focused acknowledging the impacts of regional and NAP,” it is vital to align with the National Innovation global dynamics. Agenda and National Security Policy, framed within the With the application of scientific guidance and utilizing context of social and climate justice, inclusivity, and the appropriate methodologies, the NAP intends to lay pursuit of lasting peace across the country to ensure down challenges and opportunities for innovative and that no one, even the smallest unit of governance, transformative actions on sectoral outcomes through is left behind. the support mechanism under Cross-Cutting Outcomes 1-8.

1.2 NAP Guiding Principles The NAP is envisioned as: Multidecadal Strategic This approach embodies the science-policy-action continuum which emphasizes the importance of • Compliant with the UNFCCC guidelines on synergy rather than a trade-off between adaptation and NAP development. Framework mitigation actions. • Aligned with existing national policies, programs, The value chain of vital goods and services that supports and international agreements including the UNFCCC human systems (e.g., food, water, health, community, and the Paris Agreement, the UN Sustainable and ecosystems nexus) is at risk due to uncertainties Development Goals, Sendai Framework for and severity of adverse climate change impacts and Disaster Risk Reduction, and Kunming-Montreal limits of adaptation. Human Security, therefore, emerged Biodiversity Framework. as a prime consideration in climate change actions. • Formulated based on the best available science As a result, its core elements under the NCCAP are now and technologies, integrating strategies from addressed as separate sectoral outcomes. Health, for scientific contributions and community-based instance, is now treated distinctly, with emphasis on its best practices, and, where appropriate, traditional path to post-pandemic recovery. Other outcomes include knowledge, indigenous peoples’ knowledge, and jobs and livelihoods sector, with focus on just transition local knowledge systems while addressing diverse concerns, as well as the land use and human settlements local climate adaptation needs. sector, concentrating on mobility and displacement, • Evidence-based and risk-informed, with with their nexus to conflict and DRRM. fit-for-purpose adaptation actions formulated Aside from the necessity for experts and academia to based on the causes, magnitude, and impacts of provide knowledge base and capacity building, efforts identified risks.12 Long-term strategies also account also should be directed in nurturing future climate experts, for intersecting vulnerabilities and complexities in leaders, and actors, thus ensuring intergenerational addressing such risks. equity. • Promotes a rights-based, integrated/cross-sectoral, The utilization of methods such as probabilistic risk and multidisciplinary approach to climate change assessment, along with interoperable and user-friendly adaptation and climate justice. This approach data analytics and tools like the GeoRiskPH platform is grounded in the principle of Leaving No of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), One Behind (LNOB), ensuring a participatory, will facilitate the engagement of various segments of inclusive planning process that prioritizes the most the population—from policymakers to citizens, industry vulnerable populations. stakeholders, and development partners—in a solutions- oriented NAP process. 12 National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2011-2028). Retrieved from this link. 50 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 • Guided by the Precautionary Principle13 in dealing with the urgent need for effective climate actions, recognizing the inherent limits to adaptation. This principle promotes proactive policies to minimize climate-related losses and damages without allowing the lack of full scientific certainty to be used as a reason to delay the implementation of adaptation measures. • Anchored on the principles of the Paris Agreement, emphasizing the principle of equity and common Multidecadal Strategic but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, considering different national circumstances. 14 This alignment gives special • Cognizant of the value of a multi-stakeholder Framework importance to equal and equitable protection inclusivity and participatory approach to ensure of women, children, youth, indigenous peoples, effective and sustainable adaptation strategies. local communities, differently abled, and senior This includes partnerships with civil society, the citizens, and highlights the need to enhance their private sector, international community, local adaptive capacities. governments, the academe, indigenous peoples, specific subgroups of persons with disabilities (like the deaf and blind), and other marginalized groups most vulnerable to climate change. • Guided by the principles for locally led adaptation16 which recognized local communities as front liners of climate change impacts and the need to develop flexible and inclusive programs, accessible funding, and transparent and collaborative practices, ensuring that adaptation is increasingly driven and sustained by local stakeholders. • Embodies an intergenerational and inclusive commitment to safeguard present and future • Aligned with long-term strategies focused on generations from gradual but persistent impacts of well-being. Adaptation actions aim to increase climate change. income and job opportunities, enhance public health, • Cognizant of the distinction between incremental and promote local empowerment, among others.15 adaptation,17 which is moving towards disaster resilience and transformational adaptation,18 which is moving towards climate resilience. 13 “Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost.” Source: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). (1992). Retrieved from: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf / UNFCCC Handbook. (2006). Retrieved from: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/handbook.pdf. 14 The Paris Agreement on Climate Change (2015). 15 PDP 2023-2028. Chapter 15. Retrieved from this link. 16 Principles of Locally Led Adaptation (2022). Global Commission on Adaptation. https:///www.wri.org/initiatives/locally-led- adaptation/principles-locally-led-adaptation 17 Incremental adaptation are interventions that preserve the essence and integrity of the prevailing technological, institutional, governance, and value systems e.g. introduction of new cropping systems, altering planting times, and establishing efficient irrigation systems. 18 Transformational adaptation refers to the body of interventions that, to the extent of greater magnitude than incremental interventions, alter the systems’ basic characteristics in response to actual or expected climate and its effects. 51 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

1.3 NAP Processes and approach Multidecadal Strategic Framework Figure 1.3.1 The 5-step Process for the NAP Formulation in the Philippines As a national policy, Climate Change Commission Civil society organizations (CSOs)/ Non-government Resolution No. 2019-001 on the National Climate organizations (NGOs) from Luzon, Visayas, and Risk Management Framework (NCRMF) provides Mindanao. While not every agency, organization and evidence-based guidance to the public sector to stakeholder were covered, the survey results offer a undertake risk profiling, assessment, and management snapshot of data generation (i.e., slow and sudden needed to increase the adaptive capacity of communities onset) across various governance levels and sectors in through technology development and transfer and the country. capacity building, utilizing probabilistic risk assessment The second step entails the Preparatory Activities methods to consider future scenarios on impacts. for the Launch of the NAP formulation. This involves The NCRMF aims to address the challenging technical discussions and scoping activities to aspect of the NAP formulation by establishing a identify climate risks and vulnerabilities in the Philippines. clear and organized framework of action to enable As a follow-up process, sectoral plans and adaptation systematic characterization—including risk and impact measures will be revisited through the NCCAP Monitoring quantification—and identify and organize adaptation & Evaluation (M&E) tools. measures addressing both actual and potential impacts The third step involves the Nationwide Climate Risk of climate change. Consultations were conducted Assessment Process—gathering and analyzing and a national stock take survey was completed, available data and information to develop country-specific capturing available climate risk datasets, information, climate risk models. Parameters, methodology, tools, methodologies, capacities, and mechanisms. and limitations for risk assessment are identified This process involved National Government Agencies and coordinated with concerned agencies through (NGAs), Local Government Units (LGUs), Academe, continuous consultations. 19 CCC Commission Resolution No. 2019-001. Retrieved from this link. 52 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Upon adoption, a strategic NAP rollout communications Furthermore, a multi-stakeholder coordination plan will be released for its wide dissemination to all mechanism, through a dedicated NAP-National stakeholders, including development partners, to help Steering Committee (NAP-NSC) was created to provide guide them in channeling resources where these are recommendations, overall guidance, and strategic most needed. direction, including but not limited to the following: Recognizing the need to strengthen the scientific and 1. Risk assessment (i.e., baseline and evidence basis policy grounding for the NAP process, the Consultative for adaptation planning; climate risks and impact Group of Experts (CGE) has been established to provide drivers; tools, methodologies, and approaches to top-tier scientific and technical advisory support to the use) Philippine government during the NAP development. Multidecadal Strategic 2. Planning and development (i.e., sectoral SF or set of Specifically, the CGE is expected to: indicators, outcomes, and targets; identification and/ a. provide guidance on reports, tools, approaches, or prioritization of sectors and adaptation solutions; Framework and other considerations for incorporating the best resource mobilization) available science and technologies into the NAP 3. Implementation (i.e., stakeholder engagement, development, communication, and capacity-building strategies) b. eview the NAP drafts, and 4. Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability, and Learning c. ensure that the NAP final output aligns with (i.e., reporting and updating; results-based M&E international scientific standards/peer review. systems and information/knowledge management). The NAP-NSC undertakes to harmonize and integrate the execution of its tasks, roles, and responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the NAP. Preparatory Activities for the Launch of the NAP formulation 19 CCC Commission Resolution No. 2019-001. Retrieved from this link. 53 Baguio City 02 National Circumstances National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 2. National Context

2.1 Geography The Philippines is an archipelago composed of 7,641 islands within three (3) major island groups: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. It has a total land area of 298,170 km2 and a coastline of 36,289 km.20 Surrounded by bodies of water, the Philippines is bordered by the Pacific Ocean on the east, the West Philippine Sea on the west, Basha Channel on the north, and the Sulu and Celebes Seas on the south. In terms of topography, the islands of Luzon and Mindanao are characterized by alluvial plains, narrow valleys, rolling hills, and high mountains. Most of the National Context smaller islands, such as those in the Visayas, have a mountainous interior surrounded by narrow strips of discontinuous flat lowlands on the coastal rims. The shorelines of both large and small islands are irregular. Due to its unique environment and geographical features, the Philippines stands as one of the world’s mega-biodiverse countries. It is home to plant and animal species representing 70 to 80% of the world’s biodiversity.21 The country’s fertile land contributes to its rich biodiversity. In terms of fauna, an estimated 49% of terrestrial wildlife species are considered endemic, Figure 2.1.1 Location map including highly endangered species such as the Being in the Tropical Cyclone belt and the Pacific Philippine eagle, tarsier, and mouse deer. Ring of Fire, the country is extremely vulnerable to The country’s fertile land contributes to its rich biodiversity. climate-related and geological hazards, with around 20 In terms of fauna, an estimated 49% of terrestrial wildlife tropical cyclones a year and almost daily seismic shocks. species are considered endemic, including highly These result in losses and damage for the country at an endangered species such as the Philippine eagle, average of 0.5% of GDP annually.22 tarsier, and mouse deer. 20 Water Environment Partnership in Asia (WEPA) 21 Convention on Biological Diversity. Philippine Country Profile. Retrieved from https://www.cbd.int/countries/profile/?country=ph 22 The Philippines’ Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as submitted in 2021, and 2011 Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan (PDRRMP) 55 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Metro Manila, the country’s largest metropolis comprising 16 cities (including the capital, Manila City) and one municipality, is strategically located in the middle of Luzon. It is bounded by Manila Bay on the west and Laguna de Bay on the southeast. The Pasig River, a major waterway, runs through the metropolis. The 633-square-kilometer metropolis sits in the middle of a floodplain, one of the biggest in the country. Metro Manila has a population of 13.48 million as of 2020.23 Other major metropolitan areas in the Philippines are Metro Cebu and Metro Davao as indicated under the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022.24 National Context In terms of age distribution, 33.4 million Filipinos (30.7%,) are under 15 years old and are considered young dependents, while 5.86 million (5.4%) are over 65 years old and are regarded as old dependents. These Banaue Rice Terraces, Ifugao age groups are the most vulnerable to climate change. Conversely, almost 60.40 million Filipinos (64%) are

2.2 Population between 15 to 65 years old, representing the working age or in the economically active population. The overall Based on the 2020 Census of Population and Housing dependency ratio in the Philippines declined in 2020 conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), to 57 dependents per 100 working-age population, the national population is 109,035,343. With an increase down from 58 dependents per 100 working-age of 8,053,906 persons from the 2015 Census, the average population in 2015. annual population growth rate is at 1.63%. Given this The country’s functional literacy rate stands at 91.6% growth, by 2045, the Philippines is estimated to have a based on the 2019 Functional Literacy, Education and population of 142 million.25 Mass Media Survey (FLEMMS) , a rate that is generally In terms of age and sex disaggregation of the household higher than the results from the 2013 survey. A high population, the Philippine population consists of 50.6% functional literacy rate indicates a population equipped males and 49.4% females. This translates to a sex ratio with skills beyond basic reading and writing, implying a of 103 males per 100 females. better ability to function fully and efficiently. 25 Based on projected population from 2010 Census of Population and Housing, PSA 56 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Based on the 2018 National Migration Survey by the PSA and the University of the Philippines, the primary regional destinations for lifetime migrants—individuals who have moved and relocated from their place of birth or their usual residence and have no intention of returning—include NCR (National Capital Region), Region IV-A CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Davao Region, and Central Visayas. Although no national data is available regarding population displacement from extreme weather events, the IPCC states that Asia has the highest number of individuals displaced by such events. In terms of population distribution, Region IV-A Population growth, characteristics, and distribution CALABARZON has the highest concentration, with 15% are significant considerations in policy development, of the population residing in the region. It is followed planning, and implementation. It is crucial to incorporate by the National Capital Region (12%), and Region III these factors when evaluating the needs and gaps in Central Luzon (11%). The least populous regions are ecosystem services, as well as the broader requirements National Context the Cordillera Administrative Region (2%), Region XIII of the population, aligning with national economic and CARAGA (2.5%), and Region IV-B MIMAROPA (3%). sustainable development goals. Drawing from the report of the Philippine Ocean Population growth and migration trends need careful Economy Satellite Accounts (POESA), out of the 1,500 examination, especially in the context of movements municipalities, 832 (55.47%) are located along the coast. towards high-risk and disaster-prone areas. Additionally, 57 (48.72%) of the 117 cities are coastal and These factors highlight the need for proactive measures 64 (81.01%) of the 72 provinces have coastal domains. and strategies to tackle challenges arising from In terms of urbanization, 54% of the population resides population dynamics and their interplay with the effects in urban barangays, representing an increase of 2.8% or of climate change. 7.2 million people moving from rural to urban areas since the 2015 CPH. Based on the 2018 National Migration Survey by the PSA and the University of the Philippines, the primary regional destinations for lifetime migrants—individuals who have moved and relocated from their place of birth or their usual residence and have no intention of returning—include NCR (National Capital Region), Region IV-A CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Davao Region, and Central Visayas. Bangui, Ilocos Norte Drawing from the report of the Philippine Ocean Economy Satellite Accounts (POESA), out of the 1,500 The breakdown of age groups and the dependency ratio municipalities, 832 (55.47%) are located along the coast. reveal which portions of the population are vulnerable to Additionally, 57 (48.72%) of the 117 cities are coastal and climate hazards and which might present an additional 64 (81.01%) of the 72 provinces have coastal domains. dependency burden. Consequently, any adaptation In terms of urbanization, 54% of the population resides measures implemented should consider the context of in urban barangays, representing an increase of 2.8% or these groups. Additionally, given the presented sex ratio, 7.2 million people moving from rural to urban areas since it is vital that adaptation measures are gender-responsive the 2015 CPH. and guarantee inclusive and equal representation in the decision-making process. 57 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

2.3 Economy The Philippines has shown overall significant progress Furthermore, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Philippines in economic development despite challenges caused recorded a 7.2% growth in GDP, demonstrating its by geopolitical conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic, resilience as one of the better-performing economies in and domestic issues in the previous years. Before the the region.32 pandemic, the Philippines gross domestic product (GDP) Currency dynamics have played a significant role in had an average growth rate of 5%.28 There was a notable shaping the economic landscape. In 2022, the Philippine progress, with the GDP growing at 7.6 percent in 2022, peso depreciated from PHP51.23 per US dollar in surpassing the target of 7.5%. Additionally, there was a January to a rate of PHP58.82 in October.33 Meanwhile, decline in both the unemployment and underemployment the gross international reserves of the Philippines rates during the same period.29 increased to USD102 billion by the end of March 2023, The country’s economy is largely attributed to three (3) up from USD98.2 billion in February of the same year. key industry sectors: (1) agriculture, hunting, forestry, The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached 60.3% and fishing; (2) industry; and (3) services. at the end of 2022, up from 39.6% in 2019. This ratio In the first quarter of 2023, services contributed 61.1% is in line with countries like Thailand, while Malaysia of the total GDP, while the industry and the agriculture, and Singapore have even higher ratios. The Philippine hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors contributed 29.9% Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE), anticipates a rebound in National Context and 9.1%, respectively.30 local shares in 2023, banking on the further economic reopening after a 7.8% drop in the main index in 2022. The country has garnered positive assessments from credit rating agencies. As of 2022, S&P Global gave the Philippines a credit rating of BBB+, while Fitch and Moody’s Investor Service assigned BBB and Baa2 ratings, respectively. These investment grade ratings reflect the Philippines’ robust economic outlook, supported by strong domestic spending from both the public and private sectors, rapid economic growth, a flourishing service sector, reduced inflation, currency appreciation, increased foreign exchange reserves, and a lower proportion of government debt to GDP. In terms of economic performance, the Philippines achieved an impressive 6.4% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023, placing it among the fastest-growing economies globally.32 Mayon Volcano, Albay 28 Extracted from PSA Openstat: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/ 29 NEDA Annual Report 2022: Stewarding the Transition from Recovery to Socioeconomic Transformation 30 Extracted from PSA: https://psa.gov.ph/national-accounts/sector/Services; https://psa.gov.ph/national-accounts/sector/ Industry; https://psa.gov.ph/national-accounts/sector/Agriculture,%20Forestry%20and%20Fishing 31 Extracted from PSA: https://psa.gov.ph/content/gdp-expands-64-percent-first-quarter-2023#:~:text=The%20Philippine%20 Gross%20Domestic%20Product,the%20second%20quarter%20of%202021 32 Extracted from PSA: https://psa.gov.ph/content/gdp-expands-72-percent-fourth-quarter-2022-and-76-percent-full-year-2022 33 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Retrieved from: https://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/external/Table%2012.pdf 58 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The Philippines remains highly vulnerable to natural 5. Create high-quality jobs by enhancing employability, hazards, particularly those linked to climate and promoting research and development, fostering weather. This vulnerability is not just due to the direct innovation, and strengthening the digital economy. impacts of changing climate patterns. The population’s 6. Create green jobs by pursuing a green economy and limited capacity to protect, adapt to, and manage establishing livable and sustainable communities. their environment—stemming from poverty, lack of 7. Uphold public order, safety, peace, and security knowledge, and insufficient resources—also contributes. 8. Ensure a fair and competitive environment by Furthermore, the country’s heavy reliance on coastal strengthening market competition and reducing areas and the exploitation of natural resources from the barriers to entry and entrepreneurship. sea, land, and forests by many Filipino families heightens its susceptibility to the adverse effects of climate change. Baseline information provided in the PDP includes the total accounted loss and damage of PHP673.3 billion Guided by the Ambisyon Natin 2040 or the long-term from tropical cyclones from 2011 to 2021.38 Under the vision of the Philippine government for socioeconomic business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the loss and damage development, the administration of President Ferdinand from climate change is anticipated to increase, potentially Romualdez Marcos, Jr. adopted the Philippine account for up to 7.6% of the nation’s GDP by 2030 and Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028 with specific 13% by 2040.39 actions to achieve the 8-point socioeconomic agenda of As sustainable development is an integral part of the National Context the national government: long-term climate change adaptation planning, the 1. Protect purchasing power and mitigate impact to poverty eradication is a crucial indicator of NAP socioeconomic scarring by ensuring food security, effectiveness, a significant motivator to ensure inclusive reducing transportation and logistics costs, and transformation of both the economy and society. lowering energy expenses for households. The preliminary results showed that 19.99 million 2. Reduce vulnerability and long-term adverse effects Filipinos (18.1%) are living below the poverty threshold, of the COVID-19 pandemic by addressing health and 3.50 million families (13.2%) were considered poor.40 concerns, strengthening social protections, and tackling learning losses. The highest poverty incidence was recorded in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim 3. Ensure sound macroeconomic fundamentals by Mindanao (BARMM), while the lowest was in the enhancing bureaucratic efficiency, implementing National Capital Region, followed by the Cordillera robust fiscal management practices, and fostering a Administrative Region, Region III Central Luzon, resilient and innovative financial sector. and Region IV-A CALABARZON. 4. Create more job opportunities by promoting trade and investments, improving infrastructure, and attaining energy security. 38 Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. 39 Philippines Country Climate and Development Report 2022, World Bank Group. 40 Preliminary 2021 Full Year Official Poverty Statistics of the Philippines, PSA. 59 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

2.4 Governance These realities underscore the imperative for the The Philippines is a democratic republic with a presidential Philippines to enhance its resilience and preparedness system of government. The powers of the government in the face of climate-related challenges, ensuring are equally divided among three (3) sovereign yet sustainable development and safeguarding the interdependent branches: Executive, Legislative, and well-being of its population. Under the PDP 2023-2028, Judicial. This system ensures checks and balances while adhering to the doctrine of separation of powers. • Executive branch. Executive power resides in the President of the Philippines as Head of State and Head of Government. The President exercises control over the executive departments, bureaus, and offices. The executive branch exercises supervision over local government units. • Legislative branch. Legislative power is vested in the Congress of the Philippines, with its two chambers the Senate and the House of Representatives, in enactment of national laws and statutes including National Context the annual national budget. • Judicial branch. Judicial power rests in the Supreme Court, and its appellate and lower tribunals as established by law. The judiciary exercises the power of judicial review. Figure 2.3.1 presents information on poverty incidence in the Philippines based on the preliminary results of the 2021 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). it is a priority of the government to accelerate poverty eradication and bring the poverty incidence to a single digit, building on strategies that were sustained in the past years including increasing human capital investments and further expansion of the conditional cash transfers or the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps). Overview of Climate Change and the Comission Conference Part of achieving deep economic and societal transformation is the attainment of the Philippines’ vision of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2025, and further sustained high levels of growth until 2040. 38 Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. 39 Philippines Country Climate and Development Report 2022, World Bank Group. 40 Preliminary 2021 Full Year Official Poverty Statistics of the Philippines, PSA. 60 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 At the local level, the territorial and political subdivisions Specific functions of the CCC are as follows42: of the Philippines are provinces, cities, municipalities, a. Coordinate and synchronize climate change barangays, special metropolitan subdivisions, and programs in consultation with national government autonomous regions. Moving towards decentralization, agencies and other stakeholders Congress enacted Republic Act No. 7160, also known b. Formulate a Strategic Framework on Climate Change as the Local Government Code in 1991. This code to serve as the basis for a program for climate change empowered LGUs to enjoy local autonomy and exercise planning, research and development, extension, and specific powers that were decentralized and devolved by monitoring of activities on climate change the national government. The President of the Philippines c. Exercise policy coordination to ensure the attainment exercises general supervision over LGUs. of goals set in the strategic framework and program To further the autonomy of LGUs, Executive Order No. on climate change 138, s. 2021 was issued. This supports the efficient d. Recommend legislation, policies, strategies, implementation of the Supreme Court Ruling on the programs on and appropriations for climate change Mandanas-Garcia case and strengthens the autonomy adaptation and mitigation and other related activities and empowerment of LGUs. The order directs the full devolution of certain functions from the Executive e. Recommend key development investments in Branch to the LGUs. climate-sensitive sectors, such as water resources, agriculture, forestry, coastal and marine resources, National Context In terms of local administrative jurisdictions, health, and infrastructure to ensure the achievement the country is divided into 17 administrative regions, of national sustainable development goals with a total of 82 provinces, 148 cities, 1,486 municipalities, and 42,047 barangays, the smallest political unit.41 f. Create an enabling environment for the design of relevant and appropriate risk-sharing and The 1987 Philippine Constitution mandates that it is risk-transfer instruments the policy of the State to afford full protection and the advancement of the right of the people to a balanced and healthful ecology… to fulfill human needs while maintaining the quality of the natural environment for current and future generations. Anchored on the above, the Philippine government established the Climate Change Commission (CCC), with the President as its Chairperson, as the lead policy-making body of the government tasked to coordinate, monitor, and evaluate the programs and action plans relating to climate change. The CCC Climate Change Commission Vice Chairperson and Commissioners is created by virtue of Republic Act No. 9729 or the ‘Climate Change Act of 2009’, later amended by Republic Act No. 10174. 41 Philippine Standard Geographic Code as of 31 March 2023, PSA 42 Section 9 of the RA No. 9729 as amended 61 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 g. Create an enabling environment that shall promote o. (o) Oversee the dissemination of information on broader multi-stakeholder participation and integrate climate change, local vulnerabilities and risks, climate change mitigation and adaptation relevant laws and protocols, and adaptation and h. Formulate strategies for mitigating GHG emissions, mitigation measures anthropogenic sources and enhance removal p. (p) Establish a coordination mechanism with by sinks the concerned government agencies and other i. Coordinate and establish a close partnership stakeholders to ensure transparency and coherence with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and in the administration of climate funds taking into Management Council to increase efficiency and consideration the official Philippine position in effectiveness in reducing the people’s vulnerability to international negotiations climate-related disasters q. (q) Perform such other functions as may be j. In coordination with the Department of Foreign necessary for the effective implementation of Affairs, represent the Philippines in climate change this Act. negotiations, constitute and lead the Philippine Since its establishment, the CCC developed policy panel of negotiators to the UNFCCC and the frameworks and national planning documents that formulation of official Philippine positions on climate guide the formulation and implementation of climate change negotiation issues, and decision areas in the change programs by relevant NGAs, LGUs, institutions, National Context international negotiation arena and stakeholders: k. Formulate and update guidelines for determining • National Framework Strategy on Climate vulnerability to climate change impacts and Change (NFSCC). Formulated in 2010, sets the adaptation assessments and facilitate the provision country’s agenda for climate change adaptation as of technical assistance for their implementation an anchor strategy while capitalizing on mitigation and monitoring opportunities. The Framework served as a basis l. Coordinate with local government units (LGUs) and for the national program on climate change. It private entities to address vulnerability to climate identified Key Result Areas to be pursued in key change impacts of regions, provinces, cities, climate-sensitive sectors in addressing the adverse and municipalities effects of climate change both under adaptation and mitigation. m. Facilitate capacity building for local adaptation planning, implementation, and monitoring of climate • National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP). change initiatives in vulnerable and marginalized Formulated in 2012, the NCCAP serves as the communities and areas operational plan of the NFSCC. It outlines the country’s long-term agenda for adaptation and n. Promote and provide technical and financial support mitigation for 2011 to 2028. It outlines key strategies to local research and development programs and to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience projects in vulnerable and marginalized communities of vulnerable communities and ecosystems to and areas climate change. 62 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 - A NCCAP Result Based Monitoring and Evaluation 1. Enabling the overall environment for green finance (RBMES) was implemented to comprehensively and climate investments monitor and evaluate the NCCAP Implementation. 2. Development and promotion of climate-resilient The RBMES was built on government initiatives to frameworks, practices, and business systems in the integrate climate and disaster risk into the planning agriculture and fisheries sectors process. Using the RBMES, the Philippines 3. Promotion of sustainable energy and transport conducted the NCCAP M&E report for FY 4. Integration of resource- and energy-efficient 2011-2016. The report examined the government’s designs and systems in domestic, commercial, actions in mainstreaming climate change through and industrial use enabling policies, plans, programs, institutional capacities, and knowledge management systems. 5. Promotion of green, sustainable, and livable cities The M&E findings highlighted the need to improve 6. Development of climate-resilient ecosystems the institutional capacity of the government and 7. Promotion of climate-responsive social enhance convergence amongst government protection programs institutions to implement and monitor climate 8. Provision of climate information services programs on the ground. 9. Integration and active involvement of indigenous • National Climate Risk Management Framework peoples in Climate Change Adaptation National Context (NCRMF). Adopted in 2019 through a Commission and Mitigation- Disaster Risk Reduction Resolution, it underpins the Philippines’ climate (CCAM-DRR) initiatives. change adaptation and loss and damage Figure 2.4.1 shows the timeline of climate change-related management work seeking to advance the risk laws and policies since 1987. Prior to enacting the Climate assessment methodology in view of the increasing Change Act, several climate-related policies and laws uncertainty surrounding climate change. were already in place that aimed to address the impacts • Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). of climate change, promote environmental protection, Submitted to the UNFCCC in April 2021, it sets the and preserve and conserve natural resources. country’s 75 percent43 greenhouse gas emission • Administrative Order No. 220 s. 1991 established reduction and avoidance target for the Agriculture, an Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change Waste, Industry, Processing, and Product Use, tasked to formulate climate change policies and Transport, and Energy sectors for 2020 to 2030. response strategies, identify information needs for Furthermore, the CCC developed the Philippine Country UN negotiations, establish working groups to monitor Programme for the Green Climate Fund for the period and assess local climate change, environment, 2019 to 2023 considering the need for the Philippines and socio-economic impacts, and appoint a focal to access the GCF for the implementation of the point to engage with international organizations. adaptation and mitigation programs and projects for the • Administrative Order No. 171 s. 2007 created the achievement of climate resilience and green growth. The Philippine Task Force on Climate Change (PTFCC) PCP was developed in alignment with the GCF’s strategic to assess and address the impacts of climate result areas and investment criteria, particularly country change, implement measures to prevent and reduce ownership and sustainable development potential, greenhouse gas emissions and compliance with and aimed at ensuring gender-responsiveness and air emission standards, conduct public awareness compliance with environmental and social safeguards. and coordination with international partners, and There were nine (9) thematic areas classified for the mainstream climate change in government policies, programs and project concepts in the PCP namely: programs, and plans. Attaining 72.29% of the target is conditional and contingent upon availability of access to support from developed countries 43 while the remaining 2.71% is unconditional and implemented mainly using domestic resources. 63 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 • Executive Order No. 774 s. 2008 reorganized the • Republic Act No. 9275 – Philippine Clean Water Act PTFCC and established task groups to implement of 2004 was enacted for the purpose of protecting adaptation and mitigation measures in environmental and preserving, and management of the country’s protection, water management, agriculture and water resources from pollution and meeting the set fisheries, transport and energy sectors, information water quality standards and regulations. and education, international relations, and economic • Republic Act No. 9513 - Renewable Energy Act of development. 2008 was enacted to support the mainstreaming, • Proclamation No. 1667 s. 2008 declared the adoption, development, and increased utilization celebration of the “Global Warming and Climate of renewable energy sources into the country’s Change Consciousness Week” on November 19 to energy mix. 25 of every year. • Republic Act No. 10174, amending Republic Act • Executive Order No. 785 s. 2009 mandates the No. 9729 – The People’s Survival Fund of 2012 was PTFCC to develop a National Climate Change established to provide long-term finance streams to Framework and coordinate, monitor, and review enable the government to effectively address the the country’s climate change adaptation and problem of climate change. mitigation programs. The EO also instructs for the Other enacted climate-related laws highlight the development of a National Information, Education, commitment of the country to strengthen disaster National Context and Communication Program on climate change. preparedness, response, and recovery, scale up • Republic Act No. 8435 – Agriculture and Fisheries environmental conservation and protection, and just Modernization Act aims to modernize the agriculture transition to a green economy. and fisheries sector by advancing new technology, • Republic Act No. 10121 – Philippine Disaster promoting equitable access to resources, pursuing Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 was a market-driven approach, increasing profitability, enacted to strengthen the capacity of national and ensuring food security and promoting sustainability, local governments in implementing measures to and empowering small farmers and fisherfolk. The act prepare, respond, and recover from disasters. required the regular monitoring and consideration of The Act also established the National Disaster the effects of climate change, weather disturbances, Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), and the annual productivity cycle in developing composed of representatives from the government, agriculture and fisheries production programs. private sectors, civil society organizations, and • Republic Act No. 8749 – Clean Air Act of 1999 other stakeholders, which served as oversight in established the country’s air quality management the formulation of Disaster Risk Reduction policies, program to prevent emissions and to meet the plans, and measures. prescribed air emission standards. The Act also • Republic Act No. 10771 – Philippine Green required the development of national plans to reduce Jobs Act of 2016 aims to scale up and promote greenhouse gas emissions in the country. sustainable growth and decent job creation and • Republic Act No. 9003 – Ecological Solid Waste guide the transition into a green economy. The Act Management Act of 2000 aims to establish a established incentive mechanisms for companies to comprehensive national and local solid waste generate and sustain green jobs. management and implement measures to reduce • Republic Act No. 11038 – Expanded National and manage the growing solid waste problem in Integrated Protected Areas System Act of 2018 was the country. The Act mandates establishing and enacted to further enhance efforts in the conservation operationalizing sanitary landfills as a final disposal and protection of Protected Areas (PA). site. The act was later amended by RA 11898 or the Extended Producer Responsibility Act of 2022. 64 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 • Republic Act No. 11285 – Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act of 2019 was enacted to institutionalize energy efficiency and conservation measures in the country. • Republic Act No. 11697 – Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act was enacted to provide an enabling environment in the development, promotion, and adoption of the use of electric vehicles (EV) in the country. The act also mandates the formulation of the Comprehensive Roadmap for the Electric Vehicle Industry (CREVI), which outlines the EV industry’s plan to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of EVs in the country. • Republic Act No. 11898 – Extended Producer Responsibility Act of 2022 was enacted to reduce the amount of plastic waste. The Act requires companies to implement programs to recover a percentage of their plastic packaging waste and submit an annual compliance report. National Context Figure 2.4.1 Philippine Climate Change-Related Laws and Policies (1987 - 2022)44 The Philippine government has adopted the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028 as the guide in development planning and socio-economic policies, strategies, and programs. It has a dedicated chapter for climate change—Chapter 15: Accelerate Climate Action and Strengthen Disaster Resilience, which outlines strategies for enhanced adaptive capacity and resilience through: (1) increased climate and disaster risk resilience of communities and institutions, (2) enhanced ecosystem resilience, and (3) enabling low carbon economy transition. 44 Note: The list of climate-related laws and policies is not exhaustive 65 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 National Context Figure 2.4.2 PDP 2023-2028 Chapter 15 Strategy Framework Figure 2.4.3 illustrates how the NAP aligns with various climate change plans and frameworks of the Philippines, considering their respective timeframes. The PDP, guided by the Ambisyon Natin 2040, functions as a medium-term socioeconomic blueprint updated every six years. The updated PDP is expected to incorporate climate change considerations, aligning development goals with climate adaptation and resilience. The NFSCCC articulates the country’s approach to climate change and serves as a long-term framework. It is expected to evolve into a Long-term Strategy (LTS) that aligns with shifting climate priorities, especially after the completion of the NDC Implementation Plan (NDCIP) and the NAP. Both documents have targeted strategies set for long-term horizons. From an operational perspective, the elements of the updated NCCAP will be managed using iterative results and practical evidence from the NDC and NAP. Specifically, the evaluation results from the NDC and NAP will guide the review and updating of subnational, sectoral, and local plans, such as the Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP). This approach ensures that adaptation strategies align with the broader national climate action agenda, encompassing both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Manila, National Capital Region 44 Note: The list of climate-related laws and policies is not exhaustive 66 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 In conclusion, the Philippines follows a multi-tiered approach to climate change planning and policy development, ranging from short-term to long-term. This allows the country to address both immediate and future climate challenges while integrating climate considerations into broader development objectives. National Context Figure 2.4.3 Philippine Climate Change Plans and Frameworks 67 03 Climate Change in the Philippines National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 3. Climate Change in the Philippines

3.1 Introduction Chapter 3 presents historical climate trends, possible future climate scenarios, and the implications to the Philippines from a physical, social, and economic perspective. To comprehensively grasp the implications of climate change in the Philippines, climate trends and extreme events that have had the most impact on the country were considered, specifically concentrating on four climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) deemed most critical to the Philippines’ vulnerability (see figure 3.1.1). These CIDs have also been identified in consultation with national climate experts (i.e., National Panel of Technical Experts and Consultative Group of Experts for the Philippines’ NAP development). These CIDs are increased temperatures and drought, sea level rise and extreme sea levels, extreme precipitation, and extreme wind and tropical cyclones (see table 3.1.1). Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.1.1: Climatic Impact Drivers relevant for the Philippines45 1: Size of bar corresponds to % of total annual natural hazards occurrence during 1990 to 2018; 2. Aligned with NPTE’s identified top climate risks for the Philippines; 3. Based on satellite observations (AVISO altimetry data) taken from 1993 to 2015, the sea level has risen by as much as 5.7-7.0 mm/yr over the Philippine Sea. Such rate is approximately double the highest global average rate of 2.8-3.6 mm/yr, which was observed between 1993 to 2010. 45 BCG analysis on based on Climate Watch. (n.d.). Philippines (PHL) Country Profile; PAGASA. (2018). Observed Climate Trends and Projected Climate Change in the Phils 2018 [Report] 69 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Aftermath of Typhoon Rolly in Catanduanes, 2020 Table 3.1.1 Description and importance of selected CIDs in the Philippines CID Brief Description Importance in the Philippines Increased temperature Increased temperature—episodic The Philippines, with substantial and drought high surface air temperature events outdoor activities, faces the potentially exacerbated by humidity ramifications of increased Drought—an exceptional period temperature events and droughts, of water shortage for existing bearing significant socio-economic Climate Changes in ecosystems and the human consequences. These span from population (due to low rainfall, high human well-being, labor efficiency, the Philippines temperature and/or wind) and economic operations. Furthermore, any further temperature escalation pushes people into the hazardous range of the heat index, intensifying the urgency of addressing these challenges. Sea level rise and extreme Sea level rise—chronic and The Philippines has a vast coastline sea levels long-term increase of sea levels and numerous low-lying areas, considering factors such as making it vulnerable to sea level rise sterodynamic sea levels, glaciers, and extreme sea levels, which can land water storage, icesheets, result in coastal flooding (flooding and subsidence driven by episodic high coastal water Extreme sea levels—acute, levels that results from a combination temporary, and short term increase of relative sea level rise, tides, storm of sea levels such as storm surge, surge, and wave setup) and coastal astronomical tides, waves, and erosion(long term or episodic swash change in shoreline position caused by relative sea level rise, nearshore currents, waves and storm surge). 70 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 CID Brief Description Importance in the Philippines Extreme precipitation An exceptional period of water The Philippines experiences heavy shortage for existing ecosystems precipitation, especially during and the human population (due the monsoon season. Extreme to low rainfall, high temperature precipitation events can cause and/or wind) floods and landslides, leading to Pluvial flooding—inundation of loss of life, property damage, loss of land and urban areas caused by agriculture production, and disruption heavy precipitation, where the of infrastructure. excess water cannot be efficiently absorbed or drained due to factors such as impermeable surfaces and inadequate drainage systems Fluvial flooding—occurs when rivers and streams exceed their capacity and overflow their banks due to intense or prolonged precipitation Extreme winds and Warm-core low pressure systems The Philippines is highly vulnerable tropical cyclones associated with a spiral inflow of to tropical cyclones, which can cause mass at the bottom level and spiral significant damage to infrastructure, outflow at the top level agriculture, and coastal areas, Climate Changes in posing a threat to lives. In this chapter, historical trends and future climate The Philippines is one of the world’s most vulnerable the Philippines risks for each CID are examined from both global and countries to the impacts of climate change. country-specific perspectives. This approach enhances Ranked 1st on the World Risk Index in 2023 among the understanding of climate risks in the country, which 193 countries worldwide, the country is continuously helps support adaptation planning and decision-making exposed to often catastrophic extreme weather events, processes through identifying the most impacted areas such as devastating tropical cyclones (Luz, 2022). Most in the Philippines. areas of the country and 74 percent of the population are

3.2 Historical climate trends at risk and vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. High Human-induced climate change is already affecting levels of disaster risk are associated with more intense many weather and climate extremes in every region tropical cyclones, including heavy precipitation and across the globe. This discussion will specifically focus floods, sea level rise, and extreme heat and droughts. on historical climate trends, particularly those related to As a result, both rural and agricultural systems, along the identified key climatic impact-drivers (CIDs). Evidence with numerous other sectors in the country, are facing of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, a growing vulnerability to climate-related risks, including heavy precipitation, droughts, and intensifying tropical the cascading impacts of extreme weather events, cyclones, and their attribution to human influence, has leading to substantial losses and damages. become more compelling. As the urgency of addressing In general, the country has four major climate types human-induced climate change grows to meet the goals based on rainfall distribution (see Figure 3.2.1). of the Paris Agreement, the impacts are being felt across various regions and climates, including the Philippines. 45 World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal 71 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.2.1: Four climate types of the Philippines based on Modified Coronas Classification System The country has an extensive coastline of 36,289 km surrounded by the Philippine Sea and the Pacific Ocean on the east, the West Philippine Sea on the west, and the Sulu and Celebes Seas on the south. The islands of Luzon and Mindanao have a complex topography consisting of plains, hills, valleys, and high mountains ranging up to 3 km (~2.95 km for Mt. Apo). Most of the smaller islands also have mountainous areas. All these geographic features play an important role in defining the climate profile of the country. Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez 47 Center) and Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), 2023. State of the 2020 Philippine Climate, January 2023.] 72 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

3.2.1 Increased temperature and drought Global trends Human influence since the 1950s has significantly increased the likelihood of compound extreme events, such as simultaneous heatwaves and droughts, as well as elevated fire weather in specific regions across all inhabited continents. According to IPCC, over the past four decades, each decade has been consistently warmer than the one preceding it. The global surface temperature from 2001 to 2020 was approximately 0.99°C higher than during 1850 to1900 (range: 0.84 to 1.10°C). Specifically, the temperature increases from 2011 to 2020 were around 1.09°C higher than 1850-1900 (range: 0.95 to 1.20°C), with greater land warming (approximately 1.59°C, range: 1.34 to 1.83°C) compared to ocean warming (about 0.88°C, range: 0.68 to 1.01°C). This rise is primarily due to continued warming from 2003 to 2012 (+0.19°C, range: 0.16 to 0.22°C). Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.2.1.1: Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850–190048 Consequently, the average temperature has been increasing more in recent years. Globally, the year 2020 ranked as the second warmest year on record. The warmest years on record have all taken place consecutively (2015 to 2020) and within the past decade. In Asia, 2020 is also notable for recording the region’s first temperature anomaly exceeding 2°C. Except for 2007, Asia’s warmest years have also taken place recently.49 49 Oscar M. Lopez Center & PAGASA, 2023 World Meteorological Organization, 2023 73 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Global Asia Philippines Rank Baseline Period: 1901-2000 Baseline Period: 1901-2010 Baseline Period: 1991-2010 1 2016 2020 1998 2 2020 2015 2016, 2010 3 2019 2017 2019, 2020 4 2015 2007 2015, 2006 5 2017 2019 2018, 2012, 2007, 2005, 1988 Figure 3.2.1.2: Top warmest years globally, and specifically for Asia and the Philippines50 The impacts of this warming trend can evidently be observed through the occurrence of hot extremes and droughts in nearly all regions worldwide, including Southeast Asia (SEA hexagon in Figure 3.2.1.3). Many of these extreme events can be attributed to human influence. Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.2.1.3: Observed change in hot extreme51 with confidence in human contribution in each of the world’s region52 The Philippines has experienced significant impacts from extreme heat. 50 Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change, Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) and Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), 2023. State of the 2020 Philippine Climate, January 2023. 51 The evidence for hot extremes primarily relies on the analysis of metrics related to daily maximum temperatures. In addition, regional studies that examine indices such as heatwave duration, frequency, and intensity are considered. Regions with observed increases in hot extremes, indicated by red hexagons, demonstrate at least a medium level of confidence. 52 IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Figure SPM.3) 74 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The country is experiencing a 0.1°C increase in temperature per decade. Since the 1980s, the Philippines has been observing higher-than-normal temperatures. Over the past 69 years, the country’s annual mean temperature has risen by 0.75 °C (Oscar M. Lopez Center & PAGASA, 2023). There is also an interannual variability but with an increasing trend of 0.1°C per decade (see Figure 3.2.1.4). Figure 3.2.1.4: National annual average mean temperature anomalies from 1951 to 2020 (relative to 1991-2020 normal)53 While daytime (maximum) and nighttime (minimum) temperature anomalies also display variability, both continue to exhibit an increasing trend as shown in Figure 3.2.1.5. However, the annual maximum temperature has experienced a slower rate of increase, at approximately 0.1°C per decade over the last four decades. On the other hand, the annual minimum temperature has seen a more rapid increase of 0.15°C per decade. In the country, 1998 remains to Climate Changes in be the hottest year since 1950 with a 1°C temperature anomaly, due to the 1997-98 El Niño. Year 2020 ranked 4th along with 2019. The country’s warmest years all occurred in the last two decades. the Philippines Figure 3.2.1.5: National annual maximum and minimum temperature anomalies from 1951 to 2020 (relative to 1991-2020 normal)54 53 Data source: Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. and DOST-PAGASA’s State of the 2020 Philippine Climate, January 2023. 54 Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. and DOST-PAGASA’s State of the 2020 Philippine Climate, January 2023. 75 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Droughts are intensified by El Niño events and threaten critical economic activities such as agricultural production. In the Philippines, droughts have been intensified by El Niño events resulting in significant losses in many types of crops in which water availability limits yield. A notable example of this impact is the 1997 to 1998 El Niño episode. During this period, a substantial shortage of precipitation caused by El Niño led to a significant decline in rice production nationwide. This drought period, experienced from late 1997 to early 1998, shows that El Niño-driven droughts and losses in rice production affected both rainfed and irrigated rice ecosystems in the Philippines (see Figure 3.2.1.6).55 Implementing effective measures to address and mitigate the impacts of droughts and El Niño events is crucial for safeguarding rice production and ensuring food security in the country. The El Niño season also has adverse economic consequences. In 2010, El Niño triggered droughts that resulted in approximately USD240 million (PHP13 billion) worth of damage to rice crops in the Philippines.56 During the 2015 to 2016 period, prolonged El Niño conditions lasting 18 months affected approximately one-third of the country. Over 400,000 farmers and 550,000 hectares of land were directly impacted by El Niño-induced drought. The event caused agricultural production losses amounting to USD327 million (PHP17.78 billion), and national GDP losses of USD3.3 billion (PHP179 billion).57 Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.2.1.6: Time series of detrended seasonal rice production in a) rainfed ecosystem and b) irrigated ecosystem aggregated across all the provinces of the Philippines. The time series of monthly SPEI is also shown in c) in which positive (negative) SPEI values indicate rainfall surplus (deficit) in the country. The oceanic Niño 3.4 index in d) The “Q1” in a) and b) refers to the first quarter of the year (i.e., January–March), “Q2” as the second quarter (i.e., April–June), “Q3” (July–September), and “Q4” (October–December).58 55 Villafuerte M et al., 2021. 56 Baclig, 2023 57 Ibid. 58 Villafuerte M et al. 2021. ClimDatPh: an Online Platform for Philippine ClimateData Acquisition (Figure 5) 76 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Impact of increased temperature and drought to the Philippines The rising temperatures in the Philippines pose significant risks to both public health and the economy, as indicated by the impacts observed in recent years. Table 3.2.1.1 shows the estimated number of Filipino children exposed to extreme heat in both low and high emission scenarios. According to UNICEF, in 2020, an estimated 1.1 million children in the Philippines were affected by frequent high heat occurrences, with 4.5 or more heatwaves per year. Furthermore, at least 1.9 million children experienced prolonged heatwaves lasting 4.7 days or more. These numbers are expected to increase by 2050, with an anticipated 33.5 million Filipino children (99% of all children in the country) experiencing five or more heatwaves. Additionally, 26.3 million children (77% of the estimated total) are projected to endure extended heatwave durations. This places the Philippines at rank 31 of 163 countries in terms of UNICEF’s climate risk index of countries where children are most at risk from climate and environmental factors. In March 2023, the Department of Health (DOH) recorded at least 118 cases of heat exhaustion in Manila alone, with 33 cases originating from four high schools in Valenzuela City.59 PH Children Exposed To Extreme Heat Children exposed to high heatwave Children exposed to high heatwave Date frequency (4.5 or more heatwaves (4.7 days or longer heatwave) each year) 2020 1.1. million (3%) 1.9 million (5%) 2050* 33.5 million (99%) 26.3 million (77%) Climate Changes in the Philippines 2050** 33 million (99%) 30.6 million (92%) *Low greenhouse gas emission scenario: 1.7 degrees warming in 2050 **Very high greenhouse gas emission scenario: 2.4 degrees warming in 2050 Table 3.2.1.1: Filipino children’s exposure to extreme heat60 Moreover, drought has substantial impacts on the well-being of biodiversity leading to the death of plants and animals, potentially including those on the endangered list. The ENSO can cause different than normal wind pattern that increases sea surface temperatures, and thereby causes coral bleaching. Estimates for the 1997 to 1998 drought report show that coral bleaching was widespread, reaching as high as 80% of coral cover in Bolinao.61 Red tide outbreaks and fish kills were reported during the 1982 to 1983, 1991 to 1992, and 1997 to 1998 El Niño periods. Forest fires are also regular in the Philippines during droughts, leading to species loss, increased erosion and dam sedimentation, river siltation, and air pollution.62 61 Burke et al. 2002 62 Philippines National Drought Plan (2020) 77 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Conclusion In conclusion, human influence has amplified the occurrence of compound extreme events globally, including concurrent heatwaves and droughts. Evidently, each successive decade since 1850 has been warmer than the previous one, with noticeable temperature rises in the first two decades of the 21st century. In the Philippines, temperatures have been increasing at a slightly faster rate than the global average, with variations in temperature anomalies across the country. This warming trend has resulted in adverse impacts on public health, with millions of individuals experiencing heatwaves. Moreover, the economy has been significantly impacted, especially during El Niño-induced droughts, leading to substantial agricultural losses and negative GDP impacts. These circumstances highlight the need for mitigation and adaptation measures.

3.2.2 Sea level rise (SLR) and extreme sea levels Global trends Over the course of history, global sea levels have experienced significant changes, as stated in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3000 years. From 1901 to 2018, the global mean sea level rose by 0.20 m [0.15 to 0.25], with varying rates observed during different periods. Between 1901 and 1971, the average rate of sea level rise was 1.3 mm per year, which then increased to 1.9 mm per year from 1971 to 2006. However, from 2006 to 2018, the rate surged to 3.7 mm per year, indicating a faster pace of increase. Human influence has been identified as the primary driver of sea level rise since at least 1971. The impacts of climate change, such as the warming of the oceans and the melting of ice sheets, have contributed to this phenomenon. The consequences of sea level rise are expected to persist for centuries to millennia due to ongoing processes like deep ocean warming and ice sheet melt. Climate Changes in As a result, global mean sea level will continue to rise, with significant regional variations projected along most coastlines. This is true even if global temperature increases were to stop immediately because of the inherent time lag in the Earth’s climate system. Philippine trends the Philippines According to the DOST-PAGASA, Southeast Asia is often considered especially vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise and local areas of the Philippines have been experiencing relatively high rates of sea-level rise. About 60% of the Philippine population and over 50% of Philippine municipalities, including the country’s capital, Manila, are in the coastal zone.63 63 ONEOCEAN Infomations, n.d. 78 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 SLR in the Philippines is double the global average Satellite observations (AVISO altimetry data) spanning 1993 to 2015 reveal a significant sea level rise of 5.7-7.0 mm/yr over the Philippine Sea. This rate is approximately twice the highest global average rate of 2.8-3.6 mm/yr observed between 1993 to 2010. The disparity can be attributed to natural climate-related phenomena, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which directly impacts the tropical Pacific region. Heightened SLR in specific locations Diverse patterns emerge when examining coastal areas in the Philippines, highlighting notable differences in sea level rise rates. Specifically, the eastern islands of Leyte and Samar, as well as the southwestern coasts of the Central and Western Visayas, and areas east of Mindanao and south of Zamboanga, face a significant annual sea level rise ranging from 4.5 to 5 mm (see Figure 3.2.2.1). Moreover, specific coastal regions exhibit distinct changes, Manila has experienced a rapid increase in sea level, primarily attributed to long-term land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater extraction. In contrast, Legazpi and Davao have witnessed gradual sea level rises, while no clear trend has been observed in Cebu and Jolo, Sulu (see Figure 3.2.2.2). Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.2.2.1: Sea level changes in the Philippines region from 1993-201564 Guyam Island, Siargao 63 ONEOCEAN Infomations, n.d. 79 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Based on the Philippine Climate Change Assessment (2016), the mean sea level in Manila has been increasing at an average rate of 1.3 mm per year since the 1900s, which increased to about 2.6 cm per year in the 1960s. Figure 3.2.2.3 shows the increasing trends in sea level and groundwater use in Metro Manila that has enhanced the risk of sea level rise in the country’s capital. Figure 3.2.2.3: Combined plot of sea level change at Manila South Harbor and groundwater use in Metro Manila from 1902 to 200065 Climate Changes in Land subsidence exacerbates the impact of SLR the Philippines The implications of rising sea levels are compounded by the occurrence of land subsidence in certain areas, exacerbating the impact of sea level rise and leading to increased vulnerability to flooding and extreme sea levels. This relationship becomes apparent when considering the subsidence zones identified in the Figure 3.2.2.2: Sea level rise in selected Philippines. Research utilizing satellite data at an areas (in mm) above the Revised Local approximate resolution of 80 m has revealed a significant Reference level (7,000 mm) Data correlation between subsidence zones and regions with source: DOST-PAGASA, 2018: Observed high groundwater usage (refer to Table 3.2.2.1 and and Projected Climate Change in the Figure 3.2.2.4). Notably, regions IV-B (MIMAROPA), III Philippines. Philippine Atmospheric, (Central Luzon), VII (Central Visayas), and XI (Davao Geophysical and Astronomical Region) exhibit multiple clusters of subsidence zones, Services Administration, Quezon City, indicating the vulnerability of these areas to land Philippines, 36 pp. subsidence. Given this understanding, an important adaptation strategy for reducing the effects of sea level rise and flooding in these vulnerable areas would be to manage water (including groundwater) usage effectively. 63 Philippine Climate Change Assessment. (2016). In climate.gov.ph. The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation Inc. (Figure 5.4) 80 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.2.2.1: Top regions in terms of groundwater usage from 2021-202366 Allocated water (MCM/ Water resources region YR) (Consumptive Use) IV-B: MIMAROPA 838 III: Central Luzon 733 VII: Central Visayas 205 VI: Western Visayas 190 XI: Davao Region 183 Figure 3.2.2.4: Subsidence Zones in the Philippines from 2021-202367 XII: SOCCSKARGEN 150 Impact of SLR on the Philippines Sea level rise poses a significant threat to the Philippines, Climate Changes in X: Northern Mindanao 108 particularly in terms of inundation. Even at a lower estimate of one meter sea level rise, approximately 7,000 km2 across 2,490 barangays (villages) would be the Philippines II: Cagayan Valley 64 affected, impacting an estimated 1.8 million people. If sea levels were to rise by two meters, the impact would extend to nearly 8,000 km2 across 2,730 barangays, V: Bicol Region 55 affecting an estimated 2.3 million people. The most catastrophic scenario, with a three-meter sea level rise, would have far-reaching consequences, affecting over I: Ilocos Region 53 15,000 km2 across 5,387 barangays and impacting an estimated 3.4 million people. Sea level rise also affects natural systems, such as mangrove degradation, coral VIII: Eastern Visayas 30 reef bleaching, and saltwater intrusion. The scale of these potential impacts underscores the urgency of addressing and mitigating the risks associated with IX: Zamboanga rising sea levels (Lauren, 2013). 20 Peninsula 67 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Land subsidence [Data model]. Retrieved from Alaska satellite facility database. 81 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Conclusion The analysis of global sea level trends and the specific context of the Philippines highlight the pressing challenges posed by sea level rise. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report reveals that global mean sea level has risen at an unprecedented rate since 1900. Human-induced factors, such as climate change and the subsequent warming of the oceans and melting of ice sheets, are primarily responsible for this phenomenon. The Philippines, with its extensive coastline and numerous coastal cities, is especially vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. Specific areas with noticeably high population density, such as Manila, experience higher rates of sea level rise. These changes have the potential to inundate vast areas and affect millions of people, emphasizing the urgent need to address the risks associated with rising sea levels. By implementing effective adaptation strategies, the Philippines can work towards safeguarding its coastal communities and preserving its natural and economic resources for future generations.

3.2.3 Extreme precipitation Extreme precipitation refers to unusually heavy rainfall over a set duration compared to the normal value in a certain region. This can lead to landslides, pluvial and fluvial floods, and significant water accumulation, posing risks to infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems. Global trends The changing climate has had a significant impact on precipitation patterns across the globe, with observable trends indicating an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events since the 1950s. Extensive observational data supports this trend analysis, providing high confidence that human-induced climate change is the primary driver of these changes, as reported by the IPCC in its Sixth Assessment Report. Furthermore, scientific studies focusing on event attribution and physical understanding have consistently shown that human-induced climate change plays a crucial role in intensifying heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones. The link between human activities and the increased intensity of these extreme weather events is supported Climate Changes in by high confidence. On a global scale, there is medium confidence that precipitation over land has experienced a likely increase since the Philippines 1950, with an even faster rate of increase observed since the 1980s. This pattern of precipitation changes since the mid-20th century is believed to be influenced by human activities. Human influence has likely contributed to the observed changes in precipitation patterns, although the level of confidence varies across regions. Specifically, in Southeast Asia, including countries like the Philippines, there is evidence to suggest that precipitation has increased. The observed changes in precipitation in this region are associated with human influence, although the level of confidence in this contribution may vary (see Figure 3.2.3.1). These findings highlight the global impact of climate change on precipitation patterns, particularly in relation to heavy precipitation events. The scientific consensus supports the notion that human activities are the main driver behind these changes, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptation strategies to address the challenges posed by these shifting precipitation patterns. 82 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.2.3.1: Synthesis of assessment of observed change in heavy precipitation and confidence in human contribution to the observed changes in the world’s regions (since 1950s). Green hexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed increase in heavy precipitation68 Philippine trends The precipitation patterns in the Philippines exhibit geographic and seasonal variations. The precipitation in the Philippines exhibits a diverse landscape. Historically, DOST-PAGASA observed noticeable changes and trends in precipitation patterns. From 1951 to 2010, an increasing trend in precipitation was observed in the northeastern section of Mindanao and eastern portions of Visayas during the months of December to February, which coincides with the northeast monsoon season. These areas are at an increased risk of flooding during this time. Similar increasing precipitation trends were observed in central portions of Luzon and northeastern sections of Mindanao Climate Changes in in March to May. In the following seasons of June to August and September to November, increasing precipitation trends were observed in Ilocos Region, as well as the northeastern and southern parts of Mindanao. However, most parts of the country experienced a decreasing trend in precipitation (see Figure 3.2.3.2). the Philippines Figure 3.2.3.2: Observed trends in seasonal total precipitation in the Philippines from 1951-2010. Areas marked with dots denote statistical significance at 5% based on Mann-Kendall test69 69 IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Figure SPM.3) 83 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 According to the Philippines’ Climate Risk Country Profile (ADB), the country receives around 2,348 mm of average annual precipitation. However, there is significant geographic variation, as the mean annual rainfall of the Philippines varies from 965 to 4,064 mm annually. This distribution varies seasonally as well. During the months of June to September, heavy precipitation is concentrated in the western regions of the country, marking a period of increased total precipitation. Conversely, between October and March, heavy precipitation is predominantly observed in the eastern regions, coinciding with a decrease in the overall precipitation across the country (see Figures 3.2.3.3 and 3.2.3.4). Figure 3.2.3.3: Average monthly precipitation Climate Changes in and temperature in the Philippines (1991-2020)70 Note: Temperature axis begins at 24˚C to the Philippines enhance visibility of temperature trends and variations. Figure 3.2.3.4: Seasonal precipitation distribution in the Philippines 1971–2000, (left) April to September and (right) October to March71 71 Climate Risk Country Profile: Philippines (2021): The World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank (Figure 2) 72 Climate Risk Country Profile: Philippines (2021): The World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank (Figure 3) 84 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 ENSO events greatly influence seasonal and interannual Certain areas are more susceptible to precipitation- precipitation in the Philippines. Precipitation patterns induced flooding and landslides. Floods in the in the Philippines are influenced by synoptic systems Philippines commonly occur during monsoon surges such as monsoons and the El Niño Southern Oscillation and slow-moving tropical cyclones within the Philippine (ENSO). ENSO events, specifically El Niño and La Niña, Area of Responsibility (PAR), with the intensity of greatly influence seasonal and interannual precipitation the monsoon also influenced by La Niña events. One in the Philippines. Mature El Niño events often lead to notable recent flooding event was caused by Super drought and water resource stresses, while La Niña Typhoon Egay (internationally known as Doksuri) in July events bring heavy precipitation.72 The impact of ENSO 2023, which unleashed 0.4 to 0.5 m of rain from its 680 on precipitation varies depending on the interaction km rainband (see Figure 3.2.3.5).73 between the ENSO life cycle and the seasonal variability of precipitation in specific regions. Analyzing observational data further supports the influence of ENSO on precipitation patterns. Specifically, during July to September of El Niño years, above-average precipitation occurs over north-central Philippines, preceding the expected below-average conditions in the subsequent October-December period. In contrast, during La Niña years, below-average precipitation is observed in July-September over north-central Philippines, followed by wetter than normal conditions in the following October-December period. These findings provide additional insights into the complex relationship between ENSO and precipitation variability in Climate Changes in the country. the Philippines Figure 3.2.3.5: Cumulative rainfall during Super Typhoon Egay (July 21-27, 2023)74 72 2016 Philippine Climate Change Assessment 73 Magramo, 2023 74 Tropical Cyclone Associated Rainfall. (2023). pagasa.dost.gov.ph. 85 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The Department of Environment and Natural Resources-Mines and Geosciences Bureau (DENR-MGB) spearheaded a Geohazard Mapping and Assessment Program, which resulted in a list of the top ten flood-prone and landslide-prone areas in the country (see Figure 3.2.3.6). The selection of these provinces is based on various factors related to their geography and topography. Several provinces are strikingly the most flood-prone: Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and Bulacan are among the provinces listed by the DENR-MGB. These areas are susceptible to flooding due to their proximity to rivers and bodies of water, as well as other factors such as topography, land characteristics, and subsidence. Metro Manila, being a highly urbanized region, is also included in the list due to its low-lying coastal areas and insufficient drainage systems. Additionally, provinces like Maguindanao, North Cotabato, Oriental Mindoro, and Ilocos Norte have specific geographical features that make them prone to flooding. Landslides typically occur in areas with mountains and high elevation. In the top ten landslide-prone areas Figure 3.2.3.6: Map of landslides and identified by the DENR-MGB, all provinces in the Climate Changes in flood prone areas in the Philippines74 Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) are included. Philippine trends The CAR is situated “on and around the Cordillera the Philippines Mountain ranges,” making the entire region susceptible The Philippines faces significant challenges when to landslides after periods of heavy rains, typhoons, it comes to flooding that is heavily attributed to or earthquakes. high exposure to severe tropical cyclones and heavy precipitation. Similar conditions exist in other listed provinces such as Southern Leyte, characterized by relatively flat lands According to the World Resources Institute’s AQUEDUCT where people reside, but rugged and mountainous toward Global Flood Analyzer, as of 2010, an estimated the interior. The topography of Cebu and Catanduanes is 176,000 people are affected by flooding annually in also described as rugged and mountainous. Landslides the country, with expected damages reaching USD625 can be triggered by heavy precipitation, earthquakes, million for events up to a 1 in 25-year magnitude. The volcanic eruptions, as well as human activities like UNISDR reports a slightly lower average annual loss mining and commercial developments. of approximately USD500 million associated with flooding in the Philippines. Historically, the estimated median number of people in the Philippines affected by an extreme river flood (defined as being in the 90th percentile in terms of numbers of people affected) in the historic period 1971-2004 is 1,943,597. These figures are expected to increase due to both development and climate change. 75 National Framework Strategy on Climate Change 2010-2022 86 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The escalation of flood damage in the Philippines is The findings presented here underscore the urgency attributed to a rise in the frequency and intensity of of addressing climate change and implementing robust tropical cyclones. The risks posed by flooding are further adaptation strategies to manage the shifting precipitation exacerbated by factors such as land use changes, patterns, particularly the increasing frequency of heavy including urbanization and logging. The Second precipitation events and associated flooding. National Communication to the UNFCCC acknowledges that while climate change may contribute to the unusual 3.2.4 Extreme wind and amount of precipitation, the damage and loss of lives tropical cyclone caused by floods are often amplified by the clogging of Extreme wind refers to winds significantly exceeding sewers and waterways with waste materials.76 normal wind speeds for a given region. Tropical cyclones, Conclusion also known as hurricanes, or cyclones depending on The evidence presented demonstrates the significant the region, are intense low-pressure systems and can impact of climate change on precipitation patterns bring destructive winds, storm surges, and torrential globally, including the Philippines. The increase in the precipitation, posing a significant threat to coastal frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events, areas and inland regions in their path. Extreme wind particularly associated with tropical cyclones, can be events are frequently associated with tropical cyclones, attributed to human-induced climate change with high as these systems generate powerful winds capable of confidence. The observed changes in precipitation causing widespread destruction and impact towards patterns, such as the likely increase in global averaged communities, agriculture, and critical infrastructure. precipitation over land since 1950, further suggest a Global trends human influence. Tropical cyclones (TCs) present a threat to human Within Southeast Asia, the Philippines experiences life and livelihoods in tropical coastal regions around diverse precipitation patterns influenced by monsoons the world. Recent studies by the IPCC have provided Climate Changes in and the ENSO, and rainfall associated with tropical valuable insights into the historical trends of TCs. cyclones. The country has seen both increasing and These investigations have revealed significant findings, decreasing trends in precipitation across different regions including the occurrence of intense TCs making landfall the Philippines and seasons. Floods, often triggered by monsoon surges in East and Southeast Asia in recent decades. and tropical cyclones, pose a significant challenge, Moreover, there has been an observed increase in the exacerbated by factors such as land use changes and proportion of global hurricanes reaching Category 4 inadequate infrastructure. or 5 intensity (>118km/h sustained wind speed) over The identification of flood-prone and landslide-prone the years.77 areas in the Philippines, through the Geo Hazards Philippine trends Mapping and Assessment Program, provides valuable The Philippines is highly exposed to TCs generated insights into the regions that are most susceptible to in the western North Pacific (WNP) region, with an these hazards. Provinces near rivers, with inadequate average of 20.2 TCs entering the Philippines Area of drainage systems, and mountainous regions are Responsibility (PAR) each year and an annual average particularly vulnerable. of 8.4 tropical cyclones to make landfall in the Philippines (see Figure 3.2.4.1).78 77 Collins et al., 2019 78 PAGASA & DOST, 2023 87 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.2.4.1: (Left) Total number of TCs that occurred in PAR region from 1991-2019; (Right) Total number of TCs that crossed or made landfall in the Philippines from 1991-201979 Tropical cyclones are systematically classified based on the intensity of their associated winds, following established protocols. In the Philippines, DOST-PAGASA employs a comprehensive categorization system that encompasses five distinct categories. These categories are determined by assessing the 10-minute average wind strengths accompanying the cyclones (see Table 3.2.4.1). Table 3.2.4.1: Categories of TC used by PAGASA80 Climate Changes in the Philippines Decreasing frequency of TCs but very strong TCs becoming more frequent An analysis of tropical cyclone data in the Philippines shows that while there has been a slight decline in the overall number of tropical cyclones, there is an observable upward trajectory in the occurrence of ‘very strong TCs’, characterized by maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 170 km/h (see Figure 3.2.4.2). Furthermore, the number of typhoons (TY and STY) in the last 30 years have accounted for about half of the total TCs in the nation (see Figure 3.2.4.3) (DOST-PAGASA, 2018). Both these findings underscore the evolving nature of tropical cyclones in the country and necessitate a proactive and adaptive approach to climate resilience, including robust strategies for risk reduction, preparedness, and response to effectively address the intensifying threats posed by these extreme weather events. 79 DOST PAGASA’s Annual Report on the Philippine Tropical Cyclones, 2020. 80 DOST PAGASA’s Annual Report on the Philippine Tropical Cyclones, 2020. 88 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.2.4.2: Time series of annual count of all (black line) and very intense tropical cyclones (maximum sustained winds >170kph, red line) that entered the PAR from 1980 to 201581 Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.2.4.3: Climatological normal of all TC occurrences within the PAR in the last 30 years, for depressions, storms, and typhoons (both landfalling and non-landfalling TCs) with error bars that represent +-1 standard deviation from the climatological normal82 Pronounced concentration of TCs in the northeastern regions Furthermore, a spatial analysis was undertaken to identify the geographical areas within the Philippines that were most significantly impacted by TCs, as illustrated in Figure 3.2.4.4. The findings revealed a pronounced concentration of TC occurrences in the northeastern region of the country, denoted by the shaded regions in the figure. In contrast, the southwestern part of the country experienced notably fewer TCs, as indicated by the horizontally hatched sections in the same figure.83 81 DOST-PAGASA’s Observed and Projected Climate Change in the Philippines, 2018 82 DOST PAGASA’s Annual Report on the Philippine Tropical Cyclones, 2020. 83 2016 Philippine Climate Change Assessment 89 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.2.4.4: Total number of TCs in the Philippines per 1° x 1° grid, for the period 1948-2020 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects behavior of TCs The findings of the spatial analysis and the examination of wind speed data emphasize the pressing need for effective measures to address the long-standing and escalating impact of tropical cyclones on the Philippines. It must also be noted that the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) can vary from season to season and year to year, influenced by factors such as the El Niño and La Niña events.84 The frequency of TCs can change from season to season and year to year due to factors like El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño (La Niña) years from July to September, TC activity tends to increase (decrease) due to higher (lower) atmospheric moisture, but this reverses during October to December. Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.2.4.5: Number of typhoons per year from 1960-2022 with at least 150 kph sustained winds entering the PAR. Years are labeled according to El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions. Note that there were no such typhoons in 200185 84 DOST-PAGASA, 2023 85 DOST-PAGASA, 2023 90 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Studies also indicate that the genesis location of TCs shifts southeastward (northwestward) during El Niño (La Niña) years, affecting their track, intensity, and lifespan. Moreover, more typhoons hit the northern Philippines in La Niña years compared to El Niño years. These variations in TC behavior during different ENSO phases have significant implications for the affected regions. Figure 3.2.4.5 shows the annual number of TCs that are affected by the El Niño Phenomenon. Understanding the relationship between ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and TC activity is crucial for anticipating and preparing for the potential impacts of these weather phenomena. By studying these patterns and their effects, scientists and policymakers can enhance their ability to forecast and respond to TC events, ultimately contributing to better disaster preparedness and risk reduction strategies. Impact of TCs on the Philippines Over the past five decades, TCs have inflicted a significant toll on the Philippines, resulting in the loss of 34,435 lives and leaving 75,034 individuals injured since 1970.86 These devastating events have underscored the urgent need for effective measures to mitigate their impact and enhance the country’s resilience. It is worth noting that some of the most severe storms in the Philippines have occurred within the past 15 years, marking a worrying trend for a nation accustomed to an average of 20 storms each year. These notable storms include Typhoon Haiyan, Typhoon Ulysses, and Typhoon Egay, to name a few, all of which have posed significant damage to agriculture, houses, and critical infrastructure and have garnered international attention. Seven notable TCs—Ambo, Ofel, Pepito, Quinta, Rolly, Ulysses, and Vicky—were mostly responsible for a combined total of 733 casualties, including 112 deaths, 610 injuries, and 11 missing individuals. Among these, Typhoon Ulysses emerged as the deadliest, claiming the lives of 51 people. Furthermore, the economic consequences of the 2020 TC season were substantial. The aggregated cost of damage to agriculture and infrastructure reached PHP44.222 billion, with infrastructure accounting for the majority (63.6%) of the total cost. Climate Changes in the Philippines It is important to note that the aggregated cost of damage due to TC events has exhibited a steady increase since 1970. This upward trend (see Figure 3.2.4.6) serves as a clear indication of the growing vulnerability of the Philippines to these natural disasters. 86 DOST-PAGASA, 2023 91 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.2.4.6: Yearly total cost of damage (in PHP millions) caused by tropical cyclones in the PAR region from 1970 to 2020. The cost values are adjusted to 2020-equivalent values to account for inflation using the annual average CPIs published by the Philippine Statistics Authority. The red dash line presents the linear trend of the adjusted cost of damage87 Conclusion The Philippines, like many other regions across the globe, is experiencing the impacts of human-induced climate change. The country is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones. While there has Climate Changes in been a slight decline in the overall number of tropical cyclones, the occurrence of ‘very strong TCs’ with maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 170km/h has been on the rise. Spatial analysis has shown that the northeastern part of the Philippines is most significantly impacted by TC, the Philippines emphasizing the need for targeted strategies to mitigate their effects. Furthermore, the frequency and behavior of tropical cyclones can vary due to factors like El Niño and La Niña events, which underscores the importance of understanding these patterns for effective forecasting and disaster preparedness. The Philippines has experienced significant human and economic losses due to tropical cyclones, emphasizing the urgency to address their impact and enhance the country’s resilience. The increasing cost of damage over the years serves as a stark reminder of the growing vulnerability of the Philippines to these natural disasters.

3.2.4 Extreme wind and tropical cyclone The CCC, in consultation with DOST-PAGASA and national climate experts, based the analysis on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and for 2030 and 2050. These scenarios offer a balanced perspective by encompassing both moderate and high-emission trajectories, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of the country’s future climate conditions and preparation to build resilience against the worst impacts of climate change. The Middle of the Road scenario (SSP2-4.5) reflects moderate challenges to mitigation and adaptation, aligning with historical trends. In this scenario, sustainable development progresses with efforts to reduce GHG emissions and transition towards sustainable practices, albeit with persistent environmental degradation and income inequality. 87 DOST-PAGASA’S Annual Report on the Philippine Tropical Cyclones, 2020. 88 Cinco, et al., n.d. 92 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 This scenario represents moderate emissions and aims precipitation, and intense wind and tropical cyclones, to limit warming to 2°C by 2100, resulting in a projected which have caused, and are projected to continue global average warming of 1.7 to 3.2°C. It focuses on causing a vast majority of impact to the Philippines in coordinated action and total radiative forcing stabilization the coming decades. It also assumes that no actions are before 2100. taken to curb damages brought upon the nation by these On the other hand, the Fossil-fueled Development CIDs, projecting the potential impacts across physical, scenario (SSP5-8.5) envisions a future where there social, and economic domains. A summary of projected is limited global effort to mitigate greenhouse gas estimates and ranges of these are highlighted in the emissions. It anticipates continued reliance on fossil following tables and write-ups. fuel resources and energy-intensive lifestyles, driving Table 3.3.1. Estimated range of rapid economic growth. This scenario is associated CID-driven physical impacts in the with high emissions, featuring a continuous increase in Philippines, SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emissions over time. Atmospheric CO2 Impact Across Impact Across stabilizes at a substantial level of 30GT, compared to the Physical 2030 Decade 2050 Decade 8GT recorded in 2000. The projected average global Impact (2030-2040 (2050-2060 warming under this scenario ranges from 4.2 to 5.4°C. average) average) It is important to note that the future climate outcomes Average Average for the Philippines, as projected under the SSP2-4.5 Temperature rise heat index of heat index of and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, are subject to uncertainties may place PH in 38.9°C (+5% 41.2°C (+11% and depend on various factors such as policy choices, "Danger" heat vs 1991-2020 vs 1991-2020 technological advancements, and global cooperation in index category averages) averages) reducing GHG emissions. Nonetheless, these scenarios PH sea levels provide valuable insights into potential climate futures, Seas rising by Seas rising by may rise89 >2x enabling stakeholders to consider a range of possibilities +6.6 mm/year, +8.9 mm/year, Climate Changes in faster in 2050 and take proactive measures to address climate change causing ~0.25m causing ~0.5m than current challenges in the Philippines. increase increase global average the Philippines Anchored on these scenarios and timelines, the Future Precipitation levels projected Climate Risks and Scenarios sub-chapter covers to increase in Eastern areas in comprehensive projections of CIDs and their effects mid-section of the country (historically in the coming decades, built upon three critical layers Precipitation climate type II90) and central and of analyses. projected to eastern areas of Luzon (historically First, an analysis is conducted on how climate change is become more climate types I, III, and IV), and projected to evolve at a global level. Second, attention is erratic regionally decrease in Northeastern portions given to the physical impacts that climate change may of Luzon and southern areas of bring to the Philippines. Lastly, the translation of these Mindanao (historically encompassing physical impacts into socio-economic metrics is carried areas climate type III or IV) out to understand potential effects on the population Tropical +29% average +33% average and economy. cyclones max tropical max tropical projected to The analysis in this chapter focuses on four specific cyclone wind cyclone wind intensify by climatic impact-drivers—increased temperature and speed speed almost a third91 droughts, sea level rise and extreme sea levels, extreme 89 Compared with 1995-2014 average sea levels 90 Climate types based on Modified Coronas Classification System: Type I – Two pronounced seasons: Dry from November to April, wet during the rest of the year; Type II – No dry season with a very pronounced rainfall from November to April and wet during the rest of the year; Type III – Seasons are not very pronounced; relatively dry from November to April, wet during the rest of the year; Type IV – Rainfall is more or less evenly distributed through the year. 91 Compared with 2010-2020 historical average 93 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.2. Estimated range of From a social perspective, 11 million Filipinos are CID-driven social impacts in the projected to be exposed to heat indices above 42°C, at Philippines, SSP5-8.5 which point heat cramps, exhaustion and heat stroke are probable with continued exposure—this number Impact Across Impact Across is expected to increase to up to 74 million Filipinos in 2030 Decade 2050 Decade 2050. Sea level rise may permanently displace 150,000 Social Impact and 420,000 Filipinos in 2030 and 2050, respectively— (2030-2040 (2050-2060 average) average) extreme sea levels, whose heights are projected to intensify as sea levels rise, may impact 1.9 million Dangerous Filipinos in 2030, increasing to two million in 2050. temperature ~11M exposed ~74M exposed Extreme precipitation causes pluvial and fluvial floods, as exposure to to “Dangerous” to “Dangerous” well as landslides—4.8 million Filipinos may be affected 50%+ of the PH heat index heat index by pluvial flooding and an additional 250,000 impacted population levels92 levels93 by fluvial flooding in 2030, growing to 5.2 million and in 2050 300,000 in 2050, with rain-induced landslides potentially ~150k ~420k Rising impacting up to 200,000 Filipinos annually throughout permanently permanently sea levels this period. Lastly, approximately 5.3 million Filipinos displaced by displaced by projected to may face more than one typhoon and/or super typhoon sea level rise sea level rise impact 2M+ in 2030, climbing to 6 million in 2050. ~1.9M exposed ~2M exposed Filipinos From an economic perspective, severe impacts are to extreme sea to extreme sea per year projected from these climatic impact-drivers, with levels levels potential economic losses equating to damages of ~4.8M exposed roughly 7.6% and 13.6% of GDP in 2030 and 204096, ~5.2M exposed and potentially increasing to 18 to 25% of GDP by 2050 Extreme to pluvial Climate Changes in to pluvial 97,98,99 . precipitation94 flooding flooding 92 Category of heat indices greater than 42°C, where heat may expose ~250k exposed cramps, exhaustion and heat stroke are probable with ~300k exposed the Philippines 5M+ Filipinos to fluvial continued exposure flooding to fluvial 93 Category of heat indices greater than 42°C, where heat to floods and cramps, exhaustion and heat stroke are probable with flooding landslide ~200k exposed continued exposure annually to landslides ~200k exposed 94 Impact averaged between 2020-40, 2040-60 for social to landslides impacts driven by extreme precipitation 95 Typhoon: > 118 km/h & < 184 km/h; Super Typhoons: > 185 km/h Severe tropical 96 The World Bank Group. (2022). Philippine Country Climate and Development Report cyclones95 ~5.3M exposed ~6M exposed 97 Swiss Re Institute. (2021). The economics of climate change: projected to to a typhoon to a typhoon no action not an option impact 5-6M and/or super and/or super 98 Andrijevic, M., Ware, J. (2021). Lost & Damaged: A study of the economic impact of climate change on Filipinos typhoon typhoon vulnerable countries. per year 99 Given the wide range of possible outcomes, this range of values was chosen as a rough indication of total impacts the Philippines may face in 2050. 94 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Of this, costs occurring from infrastructure damage, productivity loss due to extreme heat, and relocation of populations are projected to sum up to PHP0.8 trillion in 2030 and PHP1.3 trillion in 2050. The range of projected cost of inaction and its components in 2030, SSP5-8.5 is visualized in Figure 3.3.1 below. Figure 3.3.1. Range of possible cost of inaction, and contributing CIDs in 2030, SSP5-8.5 From a climatic impact-driver perspective, productivity loss from extreme heat is a significant driver of cost, projected to reach up to PHP466 billion annually by 2030 and soar to PHP870 billion annually by 2050. Annual losses arising from sea level rise and extreme sea levels, stemming from impacts such as damage of infrastructure or relocation of Climate Changes in populations, are projected to hit PHP98 billion and PHP129 billion in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Due to extreme precipitation, pluvial and fluvial floods are projected to cause annual economic losses of PHP287 billion in 2030, and the Philippines PHP312 billion in 2050. Lastly, intense wind and tropical cyclones may generate annual infrastructure damages of PHP83 billion and PHP78 billion in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Further detailed analyses on global and Philippine-specific trends for each CID can be found in the following sub-sections in this chapter.

3.3.1 Increased temperature and drought Future Global Trends Key takeaways For every additional 0.5°C of global warming, extreme weather events intensify and occur more frequently, including heatwaves, droughts (both meteorological and hydrological), with more regions experiencing increases than decreases (IPCC, 2021). Temperatures are projected to be 1.2°C to 1.8°C (SSP2-4.5) and 1.3°C to 1.9°C (SSP5-8.5) higher in 2030 and 1.6°C to 2.5°C (SSP2-4.5) and 1.9°C to 3.0°C (SSP5-8.5) higher in 2050 compared to 1850 to 1900 figures (IPCC, 2021). Multiple studies suggest that global surface temperature will continue to rise until at least mid-century in all emissions scenarios. In the near term, including the year 2030, temperatures are projected to be 1.2°C to 1.8°C (SSP2-4.5) and 1.3°C to 1.9°C (SSP5-8.5) higher compared to 1850 to 1900 figures In the mid-term, including the year 2050, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.6°C to 2.5°C (SSP2-4.5) and 1.9°C to 3.0°C (SSP5-8.5) compared to 1850 to 1900 (see Table 3.3.1.1 and Figure 3.3.1.1).100 100 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 95 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.1.1: Near-, mid-, and long-term changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900101 Figure 3.3.1.1: Annual changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900102 Climate Changes in the Philippines

3.3.1 Increased temperature and drought Future Global Trends With each incremental rise in global warming, the effects on extreme weather events become more pronounced. According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, an increase of 0.5°C leads to noticeable intensification and frequency of hot extremes, such as heatwaves, as well as agricultural and ecological droughts in certain regions. Meteorological droughts show discernible changes in intensity and frequency, with more regions experiencing increases than decreases, for every additional 0.5°C of global warming. In some regions, he frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts also escalate with rising global temperatures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers (2021) Figure SPM.1 p.14. 101 102 Fyfe, John; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Kopp, Robert; Garner, Gregory, 2023, AR6 SYR Data for Figure SPM.4(a): Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850–1900 96 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Projected Philippine trends Key takeaways The average nationwide temperature is projected to increase up to 0.9°C in the near term (2021 to 2040 annualized average) and up to 1.7°C in the longer term (2041 to 2060 annualized average) compared to 1991 to 2020. By 2050 decade, the national average heat index, which accounts for the combined effects of temperature and humidity and reflects the impact on the human body, is projected to increase by up to 4.2°C, reaching up to 41.2°C and placing the country very near the ‘Danger’ heat index category. The average number of consecutive dry days is projected to see a slight increase from 22 days per year to 22 to 24 days during the 2030 to 2040 period and 23 to 25 days in the 2050 to 2060 timeframe. Prolonged periods of dry days can have consequences for agriculture, water supply, and the overall economy. The average number of unproductive days103 due to extreme heat is projected to escalate from the current level of 28 days annually to 64 to 77 days by 2030 and reach a range of 133 to168 days by 2050. Average temperature projected to increase up to 0.9°C by 2030 and up to 1.7°C by 2050 compared to 1991 to 2020 Average temperature (°C) is projected to increase across the Philippines. In the near term, (2021 to 2040 annualized average), nationwide average temperature is projected to increase by approximately 0.8°C (SSP2-4.5) to 0.9°C (SSP5-8.5), resulting in an absolute average nationwide temperature of 26.7°C to 26.8°C compared to 25.8°C baseline average from 1991to 2020104. In the longer term (2041 to 2060 annualized average), nationwide average temperature by 2050 is projected to further increase to 27.4°C under SSP2-4.5 scenario and 27.6°C under SSP5-8.5 scenario, which is a 1.5°C to 1.7°C increase from the baseline years of 1991 to 2020 (see Table 3.3.1.1). Climate Changes in Table 3.3.1.2105: Nationwide average temperature, temperature increase by 2030 and 2050 decades under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios106 the Philippines 1991 - 2020 2021-2040 2021-2040 Region (baseline) Annualized Average Annualized Average SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Nationwide average 25.8 26.7 26.8 27.4 27.6 temperature (°C) Nationwide average projected temperature 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.7 increase (°C) Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. 103 Unproductive days is characterized by heat index temperatures exceeding 42°C. 104 Baseline of 2010 to 2020 used due to data limitations on socio-economic modelling. 105 Methodology provided in appendix. 106 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 97 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Average heat index107 projected to increase up to 1.7°C by 2030 and up to 4.2°C by 2050 compared to 2010 to 2020 The country’s heat index is anticipated to undergo a significant increase in the coming decades. Projections indicate that by the 2030 decade, the national average heat index will increase from 37°C to 38.4°C to 38.9°C, remaining within the ‘Extreme Caution’ heat index group. However, by the 2050 decade, the heat index is projected to near ‘Danger’ zone, with temperatures ranging from 40.3°C to 41.2°C (see Table 3.3.1.2). Average number of consecutive dry days projected to slightly increase The projected increase in the average number of consecutive dry days108 from 22 days per year to 22 to 24 days in the 2030 to 2040 period and 23 to 25 days in the 2050 to 2060 period, has implications for drought conditions, indicating a potential impact on water resources and agricultural activities (see Table 3.3.1.2). Table 3.3.1.3109 : Nationwide average heat index and consecutive dry days by 2030 and 2050 decades under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios110 2030 Decade 2050 Decade 2010 - 2020 Region (2030 - 2040 Annualized (2050 - 2060 Annualized (Baseline) Average) Average) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Nationwide average heat 37.0 38.4 38.9 40.3 41.2 index (°C) Nationwide average 22 24 22 25 23 consecutive dry days Climate Changes in Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. the Philippines The number of unproductive days in a year due to extreme heat will soar111 The number of unproductive days, characterized by days with heat index temperatures exceeding 42°C, is projected to rise significantly (see Figure 3.3.1.2). Currently averaging 28 days per year (2010 to 2020), unproductive days may increase up to 64 to 77 days by the 2030 decade and further to 133 to 168 days by the 2050 decade. Moreover, the maximum number of unproductive days nationwide is projected to surge from the current level of 148 days to 254 to 274 days by the 2030 decade and 337 to 344 days by the 2050 decade. 107 The heat index is a measure that considers both air temperature and relative humidity to determine the level of discomfort or danger due to heat. The heat index categories used for classification (based on PAGASA classification) is as follows: • Caution: Heat index ranging from 27-32°C • Extreme caution: Heat index ranging from 33-41°C • Danger: Heat index ranging from 42-51°C • Extreme danger: Heat index of 52°C and above 108 Consecutive Dry Days: Maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation below 1 mm in a year. 109 Methodology provided in appendix. 110 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 111 Methodology provided in appendix. 98 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.1.2 Mean and maximum number of annual unproductive days by 2030 and 2050 decades under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios112 Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. Potential socio-economic impact Key takeaways By 2030, up to 11 million Filipinos are projected to be exposed to heat indices greater than 42°C, with this number expected to increase to up to 74 million by 2050. Labor productivity loss or reduced work capacity due to heat stress is projected to reach up to PHP466 billion by 2030 and a staggering PHP870 billion by 2050. Climate Changes in the Philippines Table 3.3.1.4: Social and economic impact of increased temperature113 2030 Decade 2050 Decade Region (2030 - 2040 Annualized Average) (2050 - 2060 Annualized Average) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Social impact: Population 4 million 11 million 73 million 74 million exposed Economic Impact: Labor 465 billion 466 billion 645 billion 870 billion productivity loss (PHP) Note: Figures provided are approximations; Population exposed to extreme heat defined as population located in area exposed to heat index with a yearly average greater than 42°C; labor productivity lost due to extreme heat defined as reduced work capacity arising from slower work, or a complete suspension of work, due to heat stress. 112 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database.ws 113 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 99 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Up to 74 million Filipinos and PHP870 billion on the line by 2050114 due to extreme heat The potential impact of extreme heat on Filipinos is a growing concern. By 2030, up to 11 million people could be affected by heat indices exceeding 42°C. This number could potentially skyrocket to 74 million by 2050, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (see Table 3.3.1.4). This increase is largely driven by a nationwide average heat index that could reach 41.2°C by 2050 under SSP5-8.5, affecting a larger portion of the population. Furthermore, the economic consequences of reduced work capacity due to heat stress are substantial, with potential losses ranging from PHP465-466 billion by 2030 to PHP645-870 billion by 2050. Most impacted regions Key takeaways • Mindanao is projected to be most impacted by temperature increase overall, experiencing: - The highest increase in average temperature—up to 1.1°C (+4%) in the near term (2021 to 2040 annualized average) and 2.0°C (+8%) in the long term (2041 to 2060 annualized average) versus 1991 to 2020 (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). - Unproductive days may reach as high as 274 days in 2030 and 344 days in 2050 in some areas in Mindanao under SSP5-8.5. • Both Visayas and Mindanao are projected to experience an increasing number of consecutive dry days. Visayas with up to +58% by 2030 (from 15 to 24 days) and +54% by 2050 (from 15 to 23 days) and Mindanao with up to +39% by 2030 (from 14 to 19 days) and +44% (from 14 to 20 days) by 2050 compared to 2010 to 2020. • On a regional level, NCR and CAR in Luzon and Region XIII (Caraga Region) in Mindanao are projected to have the highest temperature increases in the near term, reaching up to 6.3% (NCR), 6.2% (CAR), and 6.1% Climate Changes in increase compared to 1991 to 2020 baseline (Region XIII). • Regions IX (Zamboanga) in Mindanao, VIII (Eastern Visayas), and VI (Western Visayas) are projected to hold 63% (~7 million of ~11 million) of total Filipinos impacted by extreme heat, or heat indices greater than the Philippines 42°C by 2030 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. • Regions IV-A (Calabarzon), III (Central Luzon), and NCR in Luzon face 36% (around PHP ~167 billion out of PHP ~466 billion) of Philippines’ Labor Productivity Loss Due to Extreme Heat by 2030 under SSP5-8.5 Mindanao projected to experience highest increase in average temperature and have areas with the highest number of unproductive days It is crucial to emphasize the spatial variability in temperature changes throughout the country, as different regions will encounter more pronounced shifts compared to the 1991 to 2020 average. Notably, the southern region of the country, Mindanao, is projected to experience the most substantial increase in average temperature by both 2021 to 2040 and 2041 to 2060 (see Table 3.3.1.4). Consequently, Mindanao is also projected to have certain areas with the highest number of maximum unproductive days in the country during the 2030 and 2050 decades (see Table 3.3.1.5) and a substantial increasing percent change of average number of consecutive dry days by 2030 and 2050 versus 2010 to 2020 (see Table 3.3.1.6). 114 Methodology provided in appendix. 100 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.1.5: Average temperature change (%) versus historical baseline (1991 to 2020) by island group in years 2021 to 2040 and 2041 to 2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios115 2021 - 2040 Decade 2041 - 2060 Decade Island Group Average temperature change Average temperature change versus 1991-2020 versus 1991-2020 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Luzon 0.7°C (+3%) 0.8°C (+3%) 1.4°C (+6%) 1.6°C (+7%) Visayas 0.8°C (+3%) 0.9°C (+3%) 1.5°C (+6%) 1.7°C (+6%) Mindanao 1.1°C (+4%) 1.1°C (+4%) 1.7°C (+7%) 2°C (+8%) Nationwide 0.8°C (+3%) 0.9°C (+4%) 1.5°C (6%) 1.7°C (+7%) Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a Climate Changes in decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. the Philippines Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled 115 Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 101 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.1.6: Maximum number of unproductive days by island group in 2010, 2030, and 2050 decades under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios; Unproductive days defined as days with heat index temperatures exceeding 42°C116 2010 - 2020 2030 - 2040 2050 - 2060 Island Group Maximum Unproductive Maximum Unproductive Maximum Unproductive Days Days Days SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Luzon 137 190 (+39%) 208 (+52%) 250 (+82%) 259 (+89%) Visayas 143 199 (+39%) 229 (+60%) 264 (+85%) 280 (+89%) Mindanao 148 254 (+72%) 274 (+85%) 337 (+128%) 344 (+132%) Nationwide 148 254 (+72%) 274 (+85%) 337 (+128%) 344 (+132%) Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. Table 3.3.1.7: Number and percent change (versus 2010 to 2020 historical baseline) of consecutive dry days island group in 2030 and 2050 decades under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios; Consecutive Dry Days (CDD): Maximum number of consecutive Climate Changes in days with precipitation below 1 mm in a year. If a dry spell extends beyond one year, the accumulated dry days are carried forward until the spell ends.117 the Philippines 2010 - 2020 2030 - 2040 2050 - 2060 Average Average number of consecutive Average number of consecutive Island Group number of dry days dry days (% change versus 2010 consecutive (% change versus 2010 to 2020 to 2020 figures) dry days figures) SSP2-4.58 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Luzon 27 27 (+2%) 27 (0%) 30 (+13%) 29 (+7%) Visayas 15 24 (+58%) 21 (+41%) 23 (+54%) 21 (+37%) Mindanao 14 19 (+39%) 16 (+22%) 20 (+44%) 17 (+28%) Nationwide 20 24 (+19%) 23 (+12%) 26 (+26%) 23 (+16%) Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. 116 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 117 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database.(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 102 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Regions IX (Zamboanga), VIII (Eastern Visayas), and VI (Western Visayas) are projected to hold 63% (~7 million of ~11 million) of total Filipinos impacted by extreme heat by 2030 Regions IX (Zamboanga), VIII (Eastern Visayas), and VI (Western Visayas) are projected to have about 2.7 million, 2.1 million, and 1.8 million (total of ~7 million) people impacted by extreme heat, or heat indices greater than 42°C by 2030 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. Regions IV-A (Calabarzon), III (Central Luzon), and NCR face 36% of Philippines’ Labor Productivity Loss Due to Extreme Heat by 2030 In terms of economic impact, as measured by labor productivity loss due to extreme heat (defined as reduced work capacity resulting from slower work or complete work suspension due to heat stress), specific regions stand out. Regions IV-A (Calabarzon), III (Central Luzon), and NCR collectively account for a significant portion of the Philippines’ labor productivity loss due to extreme heat by 2030. Specifically, these three regions are projected to contribute approximately 36% (around PHP ~167 billion out of PHP ~466 billion) of the total economic impact resulting from reduced work capacity due to heat stress in the country, as per the SSP5-8.5 scenario (see Table 3.3.1.8 for the summary of results). Figure 3.3.1.3: 1991-2020 Historical annualized average temperature and average annualized temperature increase (%) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2021-2040 and 2041-2060118 Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, Climate Changes in maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. the Philippines Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled 118 Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database 103 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.1.8: Average temperature change (% and °C), average temperature (°C), population impacted, annualized population impacted in 2030 to 2040 as a percent of total population (based on 2020 population figures), annualized economic impact (Billion PHP) in 2030 to 2040 by region, under SSP5-8.5 scenario119 % of Total 1991-2020 2021-2040 Economic Pop. Impacted Population Temperature Temperature Average Average Impact REGION (k people) by Impacted Change (%) Change (°C) Temperature Temperature (Bn PHP) 2030 2020 (°C) (°C) by 2030 Population) N a t i o n a l 6.3 1.7 26.9 28.6 - - 45 Capital Region Cordillera Administrative 6.2 1.3 21.9 23.3 - - 3 Region Region XIII 6.1 1.6 26.1 27.7 740 26% 14 Region VI 5.9 1.5 26.1 27.6 1,820 23% 38 Region XII 5.8 1.5 25.6 27.1 - - 23 Region X 5.1 1.3 25.2 26.4 570 11% 24 Region II 4.3 1 24.4 25.5 - - 10 Region IX 4.2 1.1 26.4 27.5 2,680 69% 30 Region XI 3.6 0.9 25.6 26.5 620 12% 22 Region IV-A 3.6 0.1 26.4 27.4 - - 71 Climate Changes in Region III 2.5 0.6 26.1 26.8 - - 51 Region V 2.4 0.6 26.8 27.4 640 10% 31 Region VII the Philippines 2.1 0.6 26.9 27.5 150 2% 37 Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 2.1 0.5 26.5 27 600 14% 17 M u s l i m Mindanao Region VIII 1.9 0.5 26.7 27.2 2,120 47% 24 Region I 1.8 0.5 26.2 26.7 280 5% 14 Region IV-B -0.3 -0.1 26.2 26.1 370 12% 12 Top metrics under each category Note: Table sorted based on temperature change (%); Figures highlighted indicate top figures under respective metrics; Population exposed to extreme heat defined as population located in area exposed to heat index with a yearly average greater than 42°C. The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Heat and Droughts [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled 119 Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database 104 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

3.3.2 Sea level rise and extreme sea levels Future global trends Key takeaways • Sea level rise will persist, with the extent and rate influenced by future emission scenarios (IPCC, 2021). • The IPCC projects a global mean sea level rise of 0.20 to 0.29 m by 2050 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, compared to the 1995-2014 baseline (IPCC, 2021). • By 2050, the frequency of extreme sea levels is projected to increase 20 to 30 times compared to 1900 (IPCC, 2021). • Approximately one billion people globally potentially exposed to the impacts of sea level rise by 2050 (IPCC, 2021). According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, global mean sea level rise is projected to have significant impacts by 2050. Relative to the period of 1995 to 2014, the likely rise by 2050 ranges from 0.15 to 0.23 m in the very low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9) and 0.20 to 0.29 m in the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Figure 3.3.2.1 provides a comprehensive visualization of observed and projected global mean sea level changes, potential impacts, and time frames for coastal risk management. It also highlights that by 2050, extreme sea levels will become 20 to 30 times more frequent. In addition to the scientific perspective, the human dimension cannot be ignored. Currently, approximately 896 million people, nearly 11% of the global population, reside in low-lying coastal zones. By 2050, this number is projected to exceed one billion people exposed to sea level rise across all socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This underscores the importance of implementing adaptation measures and coastal risk management strategies to protect vulnerable communities around the world. Climate Changes in Figure 3.3.2.1: Global mean sea level change in meters the Philippines relative to 1900. The historical changes (black) are observed by tide gauges before 1992 and altimeters afterwards. The future changes to 2100 and for 2150 (colored lines and shading) are assessed consistently with observational constraints based on emulation of CMIP, ice-sheet, and glacier models, and median values and likely ranges are shown for the considered scenarios.120 120 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report Longer Report (2021) Figure 3.4 p.45 105 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Projected Philippine Trends Key takeaways Sea level rise • The projected highest rate of sea level rise in the Philippines for the 2030 decade is 13 mm per year, with an average of 5.4 mm (SSP2-4.5) to 6.6 mm (SSP5-8.5) per year. This represents a doubling of the global average rate documented in previous reports that is 2.8-3.6 mm per year from 1993 to 2010. By 2050, the rate is projected to increase further to 8.0 (SSP2-4.5) to 8.9 (SSP5-8.5) mm per year. • In terms of absolute sea level rise, projections indicate a maximum increase of 0.25 m by 2030 and 0.5 m by 2050, relative to the 1995 to 2014 baseline. These figures represent a doubling of the projected global sea level rise of 0.20 to 0.29 m by 2050, relative to the 1995 to 2014 period. Extreme sea levels • In terms of absolute sea level rise, projections indicate a maximum increase of 0.25 m by 2030 and 0.5 m by 2050, relative to the 1995 to 2014 baseline. These figures represent a doubling of the projected global sea level rise of 0.20 to 0.29 m by 2050, relative to the 1995 to 2014 period. • The 2030 decade is anticipated to bring the possibility of extreme sea levels leading to a substantial increase in sea level, reaching up to 3 m in the 10-year period. This magnitude is 12 times that of the sea level rise projection of 0.25 m. Similar results are projected for the 2050 timeframe. Sea level rise is a multifaceted phenomenon that encompasses both sea level rise and the occurrence of extreme sea levels. Sea level rise refers to the long-term increase in the average level of the oceans, while extreme sea levels are additional events that can exacerbate the impacts of sea level rise, such as storm surges and high tides. Sea level rise and extreme sea levels require different adaptation actions and hence, impacts of each will be displayed separately. Climate Changes in The main driver of sea level rise is a complex interplay of various factors. Factors contributing to sea level rise include Sterodynamic sea level, glaciers, land water storage, ice sheets, and subsidence.121 the Philippines In addition to sea level rise, extreme sea levels aggregate the overall impact. These events are characterized by their intensity and are measured in terms of their projected frequency of occurrence within specific return periods, such as one year, 10 years, or 100 years. Some components of extreme sea levels include astronomical tides, storm surge (including storm surges from typhoons and El Niño–Southern Oscillation), Waves, and Swash.122 The combination of permanent sea level rise and extreme sea events amplifies the risks and impacts faced by coastal areas. 120 Oceanic Variability: Sea level change can arise from the natural variability in the ocean’s circulation, temperature, and salinity. Large-scale climate signals like the seasonal cycle, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can influence sea level patterns. Glaciers: Glaciers outside of the ice sheets, although accounting for only about 1% of total ice trapped on land, contribute to sea level rise. As these glaciers melt and discharge water into the oceans, it contributes to the overall rise in sea level. Land Water Storage: Changes in the global water cycle, including groundwater withdrawal and water impoundment, can impact sea level. Variations in the transfer of water between land and ocean can influence the overall sea level measurements. Ice Sheets: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are massive reservoirs of ice. When these ice sheets melt or experience increased ice discharge into the ocean, it contributes to rising sea levels. Subsidence: The movement of land at the coast, which can either be downward or upward. This movement can occur due to various physical processes, including groundwater and hydrocarbon withdrawal, tectonic activities, and glacial isostatic adjustment. 121 Oceanic Variability: Sea level change can arise from the natural variability in the ocean’s circulation, temperature, and salinity. Large-scale climate signals like the seasonal cycle, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can influence sea level patterns. Glaciers: Glaciers outside of the ice sheets, although accounting for only about 1% of total ice trapped on land, contribute to sea level rise. As these glaciers melt and discharge water into the oceans, it contributes to the overall rise in sea level. 106 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Sea levels in the Philippines are projected to rise at ~2x of historical global average by 2030123 The projected rate of sea level rise for the period between 2030 decade (2030 to 2040) is a maximum of 13 mm/ year (see Figure 3.3.2.5) within certain areas of the country, while the national average is projected to be between 5.4 mm (SSP2-4.5) to 6.6 mm (SSP5-8.5) per year (see Figure 3.3.2.2), double the global average rate of 3.2 to 4.2 mm/year between 2006 and 2018.124 The rate of sea level rise by 2050 decade (2050 to 2060) is projected to increase, with a nationwide average annual rate of SLR rising to 8.0 (SSP2-4.5) to 8.9 (SSP5-8.5) mm per year (see Figure 3.3.2.2), higher than the rates of both the historical and 2030 projections, indicating a generally faster pace of sea level rise felt across the country.125 In terms of absolute SLR, projections show an increase of sea levels up to 0.25 m (see Figure 3.3.2.6), with a national average of 0.1 m (see Figure 3.3.2.3), projected by 2030 compared to the baseline average sea level recorded in the Philippines from 1995 to 2014. By 2050, the absolute SLR is estimated to reach up to 0.5 m (see Figure 3.3.2.6) compared to the baseline average sea level recorded from 1995 to 2014, which is double the 2030 projection of 0.25 m, and double the projected global sea level rise of 0.20 to 0.29 m by 2050 in comparison to 1995 to 2014.126 By 2050, the absolute SLR is estimated to reach up to 0.5 m (see Figure 3.3.2.6) compared to the baseline average sea level recorded from 1995 to 2014, which is double the 2030 projection of 0.25 m, and double the projected global sea level rise of 0.20 to 0.29 m by 2050 in comparison to 1995 to 2014.127 Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.2.2: Annual rate of sea level rise (mm/year) in the Philippines up to 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (excluding vertical land motion)128 123 Methodology provided in appendix. 124 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group 1 125 Boston Consulting Group’s analytics 126 Boston Consulting Group’s analytics 127 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 2023 128 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 107 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.2.3: Absolute sea level rise (meters) in the Philippines compared to country 1995-2014 baseline up to 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios129 Magnitude of extreme sea levels 12x greater than that of sea level rise by 2030 Regarding extreme sea levels, the sea level rise during a 10-year return period is projected to reach up to 3 m (see Figure 3.3.2.8). This implies that in the 2030 decade, an extreme sea event could lead to a substantial increase in sea level of up to 3 m, the magnitude of which is 12x that of the SLR (0.25 m) in 2030 (see Figure 3.3.2.6).130 Climate Changes in By 2050, the impact of extreme sea levels is projected to remain consistent with the 2030 projections. The potential 3-meter increase from an extreme event (see Figure 3.3.2.8) is 3x greater than the projected 0.5-meter increase in the Philippines SLR (see Figure 3.3.2.6). Potential socio-economic impact Key takeaways Sea level rise By 2030 and 2050, up to 154,000 and 423,000 Filipinos, respectively, will be at risk from permanent displacement due to sea level rise, with potential economic losses of PHP18 billion and PHP41 billion, respectively (see Table 3.3.2.1). Extreme sea levels Approximately 2 million people in the Philippines could be impacted by extreme flooding events by 2030 and 2050, translating to about PHP80 billion and PHP88 billion in infrastructure damage (see Table 3.3.2.1). 129 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 130 Boston Consulting Group’s analytics 108 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.2.1: Social and economic impact of sea level rise and extreme sea events131 Socioeconomic Impact 2030 Decade 2050 Decade Sea Level Rise (2030 - 2040 Annualized Average) (2050 - 2060 Annualized Average) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Social impact: Population 75K to 151K 77K to 154K 240K to 387K 252K to 423K exposed Economic Impact: Infrastructure damage 18 billion 18 billion 40 billion 41 billion (PHP) Socioeconomic Impact 2030 Decade 2050 Decade Sea Level Rise (2030 - 2040 Annualized Average) (2050 - 2060 Annualized Average) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Social impact: Population 1.7 million to 1.7 million to 1.8 million to 1.9 million to exposed 1.9 million 1.9 million 2.0 million 2.0 million Economic Impact: Infrastructure damage 80 billion 80 billion 86 billion 88 billion (PHP) Note: Figures provided are approximations. Note: Population impacted is defined as the population located in an area flooded with at least 30 cm to 50 cm of Climate Changes in water for sea level rise. The coastal flooding analysis was conducted using a comprehensive approach that integrated key factors (see the Philippines Figure 3.3.2.4). These factors include the absolute increase in sea level rise, land elevation, land subsidence, and the projected occurrence of extreme sea levels. By combining these inputs, a detailed assessment of potential flood depth was obtained. Figure 3.3.2.4: Coastal flooding model methodology to calculate projected intensity of coastal flooding in the Philippines132 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from 131, 132 IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 109 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Up to 154,000 and 423,000 Filipinos exposed Extreme sea levels are forecasted to cause up to PHP80 to sea level rise, with potential economic billion in infrastructure damage by 2030 and nearly losses of about PHP18 billion and PHP41 PHP88 billion by 2050. These figures underscore the billion by 2030 and 2050133 ongoing and escalating challenges posed by extreme flooding events, highlighting the urgent need for robust Overall, by 2030, flooding from sea level rise translates adaptation and mitigation strategies to safeguard to potentially 77,000 to 154,000 people impacted vulnerable communities and regions. (SSP5-8.5); defined as an area flooded with at least 30 cm to 50 cm of water for sea level rise.134 Looking towards 2050, the number of people affected is projected to increase to around 252,000 to 423,000 individuals (SSP5-8.5). Sea level rise is forecasted to cause PHP18 billion in infrastructure damage by 2030, which escalates to PHP41 billion by 2050. These figures highlight the growing magnitude of the challenges posed by SLR and the urgent need for effective adaptation and mitigation measures. Climate Changes in the Philippines Up to two million potential Filipino population impacted by extreme flooding events, with potential economic losses of about PHP80 billion and PHP88 billion by 2030 and 2050135 Overall, floods from extreme sea levels would result in the displacement and disruption of up to two million individuals by 2030 and 2050 (SSP5-8.5). 133 Methodology provided in appendix 134 Boston Consulting Group’s analytics 135 Boston Consulting Group’s analytics. Methodology provided in appendix. 110 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Most impacted regions Key takeaways Sea level rise • Sea levels are projected to rise at an increasing rate of up to 13mm per year across Philippines. The north experiences higher sea level rise than southern Philippines as highlighted by Figure 3.3.2.5. • Luzon, particularly provinces facing the West Philippine Sea, will experience a 1.5 times faster pace of SLR compared to the national average, with up to 8.0 mm/year by 2030 and up to 10.3 mm/year by 2050. • Regions in Luzon to bear highest average flooding depths: - Regions III (Central Luzon), IV-A (CALABARZON), and II (Cagayan Valley) are projected to bear the highest average flooding levels of about 0.27-0.29 m, while regions III, IV-B (MIMAROPA), and I (Ilocos Region) are projected to experience the highest maximum flooding depth of 0.7 to 1.0 m by 2030 under the SSP8-5.8 scenario. • Socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise highest in Luzon regions: - By 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, up to 74% (114k of 154k) of the total impacted population by SLR flooding will come from regions III (Central Luzon), IV-A (CALABARZON), and I (Ilocos Region) (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). - Regions III (Central Luzon), I (Ilocos Region), and V (Bicol Region) in Luzon are projected to collectively account for 68% (PHP12 billion of PHP18 billion) of the total infrastructure damage attributed to SLR by 2030 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. Extreme sea levels • The effects of extreme sea levels are projected to be more pronounced in the eastern regions, specifically in regions V (Bicol Region), II (Cagayan Valley), and VIII (Eastern Visayas). However, from 2030 to 2050, Climate Changes in the National Capital Region (NCR) and region IV-B (MIMAROPA) are projected to experience significant increases in sea level from extreme events. the Philippines • Regions VIII (Eastern Visayas), II (Cagayan Valley), and XIII (Caraga) primarily located in the eastern areas of the country are projected to experience the highest average flood intensity levels of about 0.9 to 1.0 m by 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In terms of maximum flooding, regions V (Bicol Region), II (Cagayan Valley), and VIII (Eastern Visayas) are projected to have the highest levels from extreme sea levels. • Socioeconomic impact of extreme sea events is highest in the Visayas region - By 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, 34% (648k of 1.9 million) of the total impacted population by extreme sea levels is projected to come from regions VII (Central Visayas), VI (Western Visayas), and VIII (Eastern Visayas) in Visayas. - Regions VII (Central Visayas) and VIII (Eastern Visayas), along with Region V (Bicol region) in southeastern Luzon, are projected to bear 37% (PHP30 billion of PHP80 billion) of infrastructure damage from extreme sea events. 111 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Luzon faces accelerated sea level rise compared to the rest of the country. Luzon is experiencing a significantly faster rate of sea level rise compared to the national average. In particular, the provinces of NCR, Bulacan, Zambales, and Batangas, all with coastal areas facing the West Philippine sea are projected to experience high rates of SLR (see Table 3.3.2.2). This trend continues into the 2050 decade, with Luzon projected to experience a rate of sea level rise that is approximately 1.1 times faster than the national average. By the 2050 decade, the projected annual rate of SLR in Luzon is estimated to be 9.4 mm/year (SSP2-4.5) to 10.3 mm/year (SSP5-8.5), surpassing the projected national average of 8.8 to 8.9 mm/year. Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.2.5: Average sea level rise (mm/year) across areas in the Philippines by 2030 (2030-2040 rate) and 2050 (2050-2060 rate) decades under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios136 Figure 3.3.2.6: Absolute sea level rise (meters) across areas in the Philippines by 2030 and 2050 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios compared to 1990-2014 baseline137 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from 136, 137 IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 112 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.2.2: Rate of sea level rise (mm/year) across key areas in the Philippines by 2030 (2030 to 2040) and 2050 (2050 to 2060) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios138 SLR RATE 2030 DECADE SLR RATE 2050 DECADE AREA mm/year mm/year (SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5) (SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5) Nationwide 5.4 to 6.6 8.9 to 8.8 Luzon 6.9 to 8.0 9.4 to 10.3 NCR 9.6 to 10.7 12.1 to 12.9 Bulacan 9.7 to 10.8 12.0 to 13.0 Zambales 9.4 to 11.9 12.1 to 12.9 Batangas 9.2 to 10.3 11.8 to 12.6 Visayas 4.0 to 5.2 6.7 to 7.4 Cebu 3.9 to 5.1 6.6 to 7.3 Mindanao 3.8 to 5.0 6.4 to 7.2 Davao 4.2 to 4.5 6.8 to 7.5 Sulu 0.1 0.2 Sea level rise flooding depth highest in Regions III (Central Luzon), I (Ilocos Region), and V (Bicol Luzon regions139, 140 Region), all located in Luzon, are collectively estimated Taking sea level rise into account and incorporating to account for PHP12 billion of PHP18 billion, or 68%, of current land elevation and land subsidence data, it is the total infrastructure damage attributed to sea level rise projected that by 2030, Regions III (Central Luzon), IV-A by 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This underscores (CALABARZON), and II (Cagayan Valley) are expected the imperative for heightened preparedness measures Climate Changes in to face the highest average flooding levels of about 0.27 in these regions (see Table 3.3.2.3). to 0.29 m. Additionally, regions III (Central Luzon), IV-B the Philippines (MIMAROPA), and I (Ilocos) are projected to experience the highest maximum flooding depth (0.7 m to 1.0 m), indicating their heightened vulnerability to SLR (see Figure 3.3.2.7). Socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise highest in Luzon regions In terms of population impacted, regions III (Central Luzon), IV-A (CALABARZON), and I (Ilocos Region) in Luzon are projected to have the largest number of people impacted by SLR flooding by 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, representing 74% (114K of 154K) of the total impacted population exposed to sea levels of at least 30 cm (see Table 3.3.2.3). 138 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 139 Note: Flooding projections do not consider existing adaptive capacity and man-made barriers on SLR inland propagation 140 Methodology provided in the appendix. 113 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.2.7: Maximum flooding depth (meters) from sea level rise under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2030-2040 and 2050-2060 decades141 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from IPCC 141 AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 114 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.2.3: Average depth of areas flooded (meters) within regions due to sea level rise, maximum depth of areas flooded (meters), population impacted range, percent of total population impacted using 2020 population figures, area impacted, percent of total area impacted, and economic impact under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2030 to 2040 decade142 % of Total 2021-2040 Economic Average Pop. Impacted Population Max Flooding Average Impact REGION Flooding Pop. Impacted (k people) by Impacted (meters) Temperature (Bn PHP) (meters) 2030 2020 (°C) by 2030 Population) Region III 0.29 1.04 30-69 0.2%-0.6% 16-35 0% 3.4 Region IV-A 0.28 0.63 23-24 0.1%-0.2% 8-11 0% 1.3 Region II 0.27 0.57 2-2 0.1% 4-7 0% 0.2 National C a p i t a l 0.24 0.24 0-0 0.0% 0-1 0% 0.3 Region Region IV-B 0.23 0.75 3-3 0.1% 7-13 0% 0.3 Region XIII 0.22 0.48 0-0 0.0% 0-1 0% 0.1 Region XI 0.22 0.45 0-1 0.0% 1-2 0% 0.4 Region I 0.21 0.72 0-21 0.0%-0.4% 2-10 0% 1.9 Region V 0.18 0.46 3-8 0.1% 7-11 0% 7.0 Region X 0.16 0.44 0-1 0.0% 2-3 0% 0.4 Climate Changes in Region IX 0.15 0.48 7-8 0.2% 9-10 0% 0.3 Region VIII 0.15 0.38 1-6 0.0%-0.1% 3-10 0% 0.7 the Philippines Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 0.14 0.40 4-4 0.1% 6-7 0% 0.2 M u s l i m Mindanao Region VI 0.13 0.42 1-2 0.0% 1-3 0% 0.7 Region VII 0.13 0.41 3-5 0.0%-0.1% 2-4 0% 0.8 Region XII 0.09 0.09 0-1 0.0% 0-1 0% 0.0 Top metrics under each category Note: Table sorted based on average flooding (meters); CAR region not impacted by sea level rise or extreme sea levels; figures highlighted indicate top figures under respective metrics; population and area impacted defined as population and area located in area flooded with at least 30cm to 50cm of water; Flooding projections do not consider existing adaptive capacity and man-made barriers on SLR inland propagation Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from IPCC 142 AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 115 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Extreme sea levels to be more intense in eastern regions of the country143 While the impact of sea level rise is primarily concentrated in the central and northern areas of the Philippines, the effects of extreme sea levels are more pronounced in the eastern regions, specifically in regions V (Bicol Region), II (Cagayan Valley), and VIII (Eastern Visayas), where the sea level rise from extreme events are more sizable (see Figure 3.3.2.9). In 2050, the effects of extreme levels will continue to be predominantly felt in the eastern areas of the Philippines. However, it is important to note that regions in Luzon, particularly the National Capital Region (NCR) and region IV-B (MIMAROPA), are projected to experience significant increases in sea level from extreme levels (see Figure 3.3.2.9) (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). These regions are projected to have sea level rises of approximately 8-13% and 9-12%, respectively, by 2030 and 2050. Climate Changes in Figure 3.3.2.8: Extreme sea level rise (meters) across areas in the Philippines in the Philippines 2030-2040 and 2050-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios144 Extreme sea levels which include astronomical tides, storm surges, waves and swash are projected to increase up to 3m by the 2050 decade. Areas of highest increase are portrayed in Figure 3.3.2.8. Figure 3.3.2.9: Extreme sea level rise (meters) per region within 2030-2040 and 2050-2060 decades under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios145 Methodology provided in appendix. 143 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from 144, 145 IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 116 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Extreme sea levels flooding depth projected to concentrate in the eastern regions In the coming decade of 2030, regions VIII (Eastern Visayas), II (Cagayan Valley), and XIII (Caraga), primarily on the eastern areas of the country, are projected to experience the highest average flood intensity levels of about 0.9 to 1.0 m by 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In terms of maximum flooding, regions V (Bicol Region), II (Cagayan Valley), and VIII (Eastern Visayas) are projected to have the highest maximum flooding levels from extreme sea levels (see Figure 3.3.2.10). The Visayas regions, specifically Regions VII (Central Visayas), VI (Western Visayas), and VIII (Eastern Visayas), are anticipated to shoulder the most significant socioeconomic repercussions arising from extreme sea levels. Climate Changes in By 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, these regions are projected to account for 34% (648k out of 1.9 million) of the total population impacted. Furthermore, regions VII, VIII, in conjunction with Region V (Bicol Region) in southeastern the Philippines Luzon, are expected to bear 37% of the infrastructure damage resulting from extreme sea levels, amounting to nearly PHP30 billion out of PHP80 billion, by 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (see Table 3.3.2.4). Figure 3.3.2.10: Maximum flooding depth (meters) from extreme sea levels under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2030-2040 decade146 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from IPCC 146 AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 117 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.2.4: Average depth of areas flooded (meters) within regions due to extreme sea events, maximum depth of areas flooded (meters), population impacted range, percent of total population impacted using 2020 population figures, area impacted, percent of total area impacted, and economic impact under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2030 to 2040 decade147 % of Total Average Area % of Total Economic Max Flooding Pop. Impacted Population REGION Flooding Impacted (sq Area Impact (meters) (K People) (2020 (meters) km) Impacted (PHP) Population) Region VIII 1.00 2.26 181-183 4% 210-230 0% - 1% 9 Region II 0.95 2.30 18-18 0% 60-60 0% - 0% 1 Region XIII 0.93 1.97 44-44 2% 70-70 0% - 0% 2 Region V 0.92 2.75 155-161 3% 260-290 1% - 2% 10 Region VII 0.78 1.97 253-280 3% 90-120 1% - 1% 10 Region XI 0.74 1.70 88-94 2% 30-50 0% - 0% 3 Region IX 0.72 1.92 96-105 2%-3% 160-200 1% - 1% 3 Region VI 0.71 1.83 146-185 2% 120-190 1% - 1% 7 Region XII 0.68 1.41 37-40 1% 10-20 0% - 0% 1 Region I 0.67 1.79 116-125 2% 90-200 1% - 2% 6 Region IV-B 0.67 1.78 65-84 2%-3% 90-150 0% - 1% 4 Region III 0.64 1.90 167-176 1% 140-300 1% - 1% 8 Region X Climate Changes in 0.63 1.76 112-126 2% 30-50 0% - 0% 4 Bangsamoro Autonomous the Philippines Region in 0.62 1.61 60-81 1% - 2% 60-100 0% - 1% 2 M u s l i m Mindanao Region IV-A 0.61 2.16 120-140 1% 80-100 0% - 1% 5 National C a p i t a l 0.46 1.09 69-84 1% 2-10 0%- 2% 5 Region Top metrics under each category Note: Table sorted based on average flooding (meters); Figures highlighted indicate top figures under respective metrics; CAR region not impacted by sea level rise or extreme sea levels; population and area impacted defined as population and area located in area flooded with at least 30cm to 60cm of water; Flooding projections do not consider existing adaptive capacity and man-made barriers on SLR inland propagation Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Sea Level Rise and Extreme sea levels [Data model]. Retrieved from IPCC 147 AR6 Sea Level Projections, Coastal Futures, Nasa Earth data, and Alaska satellite facility databases. 118 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

3.3.3 Sea level rise and extreme sea levels Future global trends Key takeaways • Extreme daily precipitation events projected to intensify by about 7% for every 1°C increase in global temperature (IPCC, 2021). At 1.5°C of warming, Asia will experience intensified heavy precipitation and increased flood risks. These changes will become more widespread and significant at 2°C or higher global warming. Extreme sea levels • Rain-generated localflooding depth projected flooding is projected toheavier to increase with concentrate inevents. precipitation the eastern regions Based on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, one key impact of global warming is the projected intensification and increased frequency of heavy precipitation events worldwide. According to the AR6 report by the IPCC, projected changes in heavy precipitation are larger in frequency and intensity with every additional increment of global warming (see Figure 3.3.3.1). Heavy precipitation will become more severe with additional global warming, with extreme daily precipitation events projected to intensify by about 7% for every 1°C increase in global temperature. At 1.5°C of warming, Asia, including the Philippines, will experience intensified heavy precipitation and increased flood risks. These changes will become more widespread and significant at 2°C or higher global warming. Consequently, rain-generated local flooding is projected to increase as heavy precipitation events become more frequent. Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.3.1: Annual mean precipitation change (%) relative to 1850–1900 across global warming scenarios148 148 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers (2021) Figure SPM.5 p.17 149 Climate types based on Modified Coronas Classification System: Type I–Two pronounced seasons: dry from November to April, wet during the rest of the year; Type II–No dry season with a very pronounced rainfall from November to April and wet during the rest of the year; Type III–Seasons are not very pronounced; relatively dry from November to April, wet during the rest of the year; Type IV–Rainfall is more or less evenly distributed through the year. 119 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Variable precipitation patterns predicted, with potentially increasing intensity The projections for precipitation patterns in the Philippines indicate that the overall average annual precipitation level will remain in the range of 2500 mm (see Figure 3.3.3.2). Based on the World Bank’s Philippine Country Climate and Development Report (2022), the behavior of precipitation is projected to become more variable, with the number of days with more intense precipitation potentially increasing. As shown in Figure 3.3.3.2, the Philippines historically had between 20 to 25 days with precipitation exceeding 20 mm/day, and rarely more than 40 days. Under most scenarios, the average number of such days will increase to 22 to 27 days under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and by 2050, and in some years may even approach 50 days. Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.3.2: Historical and projected average precipitation in the Philippines (mm) across scenarios (Left); Historical and projected number of days with precipitation greater than 20mm across scenarios (Right)150 Variable precipitation patterns predicted, with potentially increasing intensity The spatial distribution of precipitation behavior will also experience variations. (see Figure 3.3.3.5). Areas prone to increased precipitation (greater average total rainfall compared to the baseline) include: • Eastern areas located in the mid-section of the country. These regions have traditionally been categorized as climate type II due to their consistent rainfall distribution, resulting in the absence of dry seasons. The projections indicate a further intensification of precipitation in these already wet regions. • Central and eastern areas of Luzon, designated as a mix of climate type I, III, and IV (see Figure 3.3.3.3) characterized by approximately half the year experiencing a wet season and the other half a dry spell. These regions are anticipated to undergo heightened levels of precipitation. 150 World Bank Group. (2022). Philippines Climate Change and Disaster Risk (CCDR) full report. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Figure A.2 page 75 150 Climate types based on Modified Coronas Classification System: Type–Two pronounced seasons: dry from November to April, wet during the rest of the year; Type II–No dry season with a very pronounced rainfall from November to April and wet during the rest of the year; Type III–Seasons are not very pronounced; relatively dry from November to April, wet during the rest of the year; Type IV–Rainfall is more or less evenly distributed through the year.Figure A.2 page 75 120 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.3.3: Four climate types of the Philippines based on Modified Coronas Classification System Source: Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) and Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), 2023. State of the 2020 Philippine Climate, January 2023 Figure 3.3.3.4: Historical annual precipitation in the Philippines (mm) Climate Changes in from 1991-2020 Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for the Philippines historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges.152 152 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Precipitation [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 121 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Historical annual precipitation in Philippines vary from an average of 800 mm to 4000 mm annually. Precipitation varies spatially as shown in Figure 3.3.3.4 Increasing overall precipitation by 2030 and 2050, with drier dry seasons expected by 2050. With projected variability in annual precipitation comes varying distribution of precipitation across seasons, potentially impacting water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystems that rely on seasonal precipitation patterns. By 2030 (2021 to 2040 annualized average), the projections suggest an overall increase in precipitation all year round, with the highest projected increase expected to happen in September-October-November (see Table 3.3.3.1). Increasing trend in rainfall is observed pronouncedly over the eastern sections of Visayas and southeast areas of Luzon in December-January-February (corresponding to the northeast monsoon) in both 2030 and 2050. During March-April-May, or the driest period in the country, the northern and western sections of the country are projected to experience a noticeable drying trend by 2050. In June-July-August, concentrated precipitation increases in central areas of Luzon, western Visayas, and western Mindanao are projected (corresponding to the southeast monsoon), while a decreasing trend is found in the rest of the country. An increase trend is found mostly in the eastern regions and southwestern regions of the country in September-October-November. Climate Changes in Table 3.3.3.1: Quarterly historical (1991 to 2020) and projected precipitation in the Philippines (mm) across SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in 2030 (2021 to 2040) the Philippines and 2050 (2041 to 2060)153 1991-2020 2021-2040 Average Average Precipitation (mm) 2041 - 2060 QUARTER Precipitation (% change Average Precipitation (mm) (mm) vs. baseline) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 December-January-February 360 393 (+9%) 382 (+6%) 385 (+7%) 415 (+15%) March-April-May 300 339 (+13%) 326 (+9%) 275 (-8%) 292 (-3%) June-July-August 792 885 (+12%) 886 (+12%) 923 (+17%) 950 (+20%) September-October-November 576 800 (+39%) 821 (+43%) 830 (+44%) 800 (+39%) Total 2,028 2,417 (+19%) 2,415 (+19%) 2,413 (+19%) 2,457 (+21%) Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges. 153 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Precipitation [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 122 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.3.6: Seasonal and spatial historical (1991-2020) and projected precipitation in the Philippines (mm) across SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in 2030 (2021-2040) and 2050 (2041-2060); Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges.154 Figure 3.3.3.6: Seasonal and spatial historical (1991-2020) Climate Changes in and projected precipitation in the Philippines (mm) the Philippines across SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in 2030 (2021-2040) and 2050 (2041-2060);155 Note: The methodology employs 30-year baselines for historical variability when possible. In cases with only a decade of data available, 10-year baselines are used, maintaining forecast consistency with 10-year ranges.154 155 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Precipitation [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. 123 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Potential socio-economic impact Key takeaways Pluvial flooding About five million Filipinos affected, with economic losses of about PHP275 to 300 billion due to pluvial flooding in the near term (2020 to 2040 annualized average) and long term (2040 to 2060 annualized average) Fluvial flooding Extreme sea levels flooding depth projected to concentrate in the eastern regions About 250K and 300K Filipinos exposed, with potential economic losses of about PHP 13 to 16 billion due to fluvial flooding in the near term (2020-2040 annualized average) and long term (2040 to 2060 annualized average) Landslides Approximately two million Filipinos may face exposure to at least one significant rain-induced landslide156 event per decade. Table 3.3.3.2: Social and economic impact of pluvial and fluvial flooding157 Socioeconomic Impact 2020 - 2040 Annualized Average 2040 - 2060 Annualized Average Pluvial Flooding SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Social impact: Population 2.3 million to 4.8 2.3 million to 4.8 2.4 million to 5.1 2.5 million to 5.2 exposed million million million million Economic Impact: Infrastructure damage 273 billion 274 billion 285 billion 296 billion Climate Changes in (PHP) the Philippines Socioeconomic Impact 2020 - 2040 Annualized Average 2040 - 2060 Annualized Average Fluvial Flooding SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Social impact: Population 177 K to 250 K 179 K to 254 K 200 K to 280 K 216 K to 297 K exposed Economic Impact: Infrastructure damage 13 billion 13 billion 15 billion 16 billion (PHP) Note: Figures provided are approximations; Population impacted by pluvial and fluvial floods: defined as the population located in an area flooding with at least 30-60cm flooding depth (lower bound figure represents 60cm, higher bound figure represents 30cm flooding); Assumes 1 in 10 year return period Pluvial and fluvial floods are two types of floods that occur in response to extreme precipitation events. Pluvial flooding refers to the inundation of land and urban areas caused by heavy precipitation, where the excess water cannot be efficiently absorbed or drained due to factors such as impermeable surfaces and inadequate drainage systems. On the other hand, fluvial flooding occurs when rivers and streams exceed their capacity and overflow their banks due to intense or prolonged precipitation. 157 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Extreme Precipitation [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) database. Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Pluvial and Fluvial Flooding [Data model]. Retrieved from Fathom Global release 3.0 database. 124 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Pluvial and fluvial flooding predictions are generated Increased precipitation intensity raises using hydraulic models based on shallow water landslide occurrence, potentially equations. These models account for variables like affecting two million Filipinos160 water height, flow dynamics, and coastal topography. About five million Filipinos affected, Rain-induced landslides161 are another significant with economic losses of about PHP275 concern associated with extreme precipitation events. to 300 billion due to pluvial flooding in Understanding the occurrence and characteristics of the near and long term158 pluvial and fluvial floods and landslides allows one to Overall, pluvial floods, or flooding that happens due to assess the vulnerability of different regions to extreme excessive precipitation overwhelming the local drainage precipitation events. capacity, result in the disruption of approximately 4.8 million individuals in the near term (2020 to 2040 annualized average) and 5.2 million individuals in the long term (2040 to 2060 annualized average) (SSP5-8.5 scenario), defined as the population located in an area flooding with at least 30 cm flooding depth (see Table 3.3.2.2). Pluvial flooding is forecasted to cause up to PHP274 billion in infrastructure damage in the near term and nearly PHP300 billion in the long term, representing the largest contributor to infrastructure among the key climatic-impact drivers. Through initial analysis (see Figure 3.3.3.7), it has been determined that, on average, approximately every About 250K and 300K Filipinos exposed, Climate Changes in five years, 1.1% of the population and 1.6% of the with potential economic losses of about Philippine territory may face exposure to at least one PHP 13 to 16 billion due to fluvial flooding significant landslide event. Over the span of a decade, the Philippines in the near and long term159 these numbers increase to 1.8% of the total population The number of Filipinos potentially impacted by fluvial (two million individuals) and 3% of the total area floods, or flooding that occurs due to the overflowing potentially exposed. of rivers and streams, is projected to reach 254,000 When considering a longer timeframe, such as a Filipinos in the near term and reaching 297,000 Filipinos 100-year return period, the exposure of the Philippine impacted by fluvial floods with at least 30 cm flooding territory escalates to 9%, while the population exposure depth in the long term (SSP5-8.5 scenario). Damage to rises to 18%. This highlights the increasing vulnerability infrastructure caused by fluvial flooding is projected to to landslides over time. reach PHP13 billion in the near term and PHP16 billion in the long term. Methodology provided in appendix. 158, 159 160 Methodology provided in appendix; Economic damages from landslides not calculated due to data availablility 161 Significant landslides are those which are likely to have been reported had they occurred in a populated place. Landslide as defined by Cruden (1991) - the movement of a mass of rock, earth or debris down a slope, with the qualification that landslides are not confined to the land, nor to simple sliding failure. 125 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.3.7: Population and Area exposed to landslide occurrence for 5-, 10-, and 100- year return periods162 Note: Population impacted if less than 500m away from area with an average projected landslide occurrence in 10-year period that is > 0% Most impacted regions Key takeaways Pluvial flooding • Regions in Luzon are projected to face the highest pluvial flooding depths and overall population impact, while Visayas regions must prepare for escalating pluvial flooding threats and adapt accordingly. • CAR, Region IV-B (MIMAROPA), and Region II (Cagayan Valley) in Luzon are projected to experience the highest average and maximum flooding depths by 2030 (2020 to 2040 annualized average) under SSP5-8.5 scenario. Regions IV-A (CALABARZON) and III (Central Luzon) in Luzon, are projected to experience the Climate Changes in highest number of people impacted by pluvial flooding by 2030 (SSP5-8.5 scenario), with up to 880,000 and 520,000 individuals, respectively. the Philippines • Regions IV-A (CALABARZON), III (Central Luzon), and V (Bicol Region) in Luzon are projected to account for 40% (PHP110 out of PHP274 billion) of the total projected infrastructure damage from pluvial flooding in the country by 2030 under SSP5-8.5. Fluvial flooding • Fluvial flood risk remains persistent in Mindanao regions, namely regions XII (SOCCSKSARGEN), X (Northern Mindanao), and XI (Davao Region), and emerging vulnerability in regions IX (Zamboanga Peninsula), VIII (Eastern Visayas), and VII (Central Visayas). • Projections indicate substantial increases in average flooding depth for regions IX (Zamboanga Peninsula), VIII (Eastern Visayas), and VII (Central Visayas) compared to the historical baseline, with projected increases of 68%, 31%, and 30%, respectively. • Regions I, II, and III are projected to bear the brunt of fluvial flooding impacts, with the highest number of people affected, totaling up to 130,000 individuals, and the most significant infrastructure damage, reaching up to PHP6 billion, which constitutes a substantial 47% share of the total fluvial infrastructure damage in 2030. Landslides • Benguet, La Union, and Ilocos Sur provinces are most susceptible to the occurrence of landslides in a 10-year return period with a respective 30%, 21%, and 18% projected occurrence in a 10-year return period. 162 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 126 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Regions in Luzon are projected to face the highest pluvial flooding depths and overall population and economic impact. The regions in Luzon, especially the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), have long been prone to high pluvial flooding depths, and this susceptibility is expected to persist in the coming decades. Projections indicate a potential increase of up to 20% in average pluvial flooding heights by 2050 (see to Figure 3.3.3.8). Among these regions, CAR, Region IV-B (MIMAROPA), and Region II (Cagayan Valley) stand out as areas with The spatial pattern of pluvial flooding aligns with the the highest average and maximum flooding heights regions’ susceptibility, as Luzon historically experiences anticipated by 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (see the most extensive flooding. This is measured by the Table 3.3.3.3). area within a location with flooding with at least 30 cm Additionally, regions in Luzon, particularly regions IV-A to 60cm of water. Regions II and III are expected to (Calabarzon) and III (Central Luzon), are expected to have the largest affected areas in square meters, along experience the highest number of people impacted with notable percentage changes by 2030 compared to by pluvial flooding by 2030 (SSP5-8.5 scenario), with historical baseline (see Table 3.3.3.3). approximately up to 880,000 and 520,000 individuals, In terms of economic impact from pluvial flooding respectively (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). For the damages to infrastructure, regions IV-A, III, and V purposes of this assessment, the population impacted (Bicol Region) in Luzon are expected to incur up to is defined as people located in an area flooded with at PHP56 billion, PHP33 billion, and PHP 21 billion, Climate Changes in least 30 to 60 cm of water (30 cm as the upper range of respectively. These three regions collectively account the number of people impacted). for 40% (PHP110 billion out of PHP274 billion) of the total While Luzon regions will be significantly impacted by projected infrastructure damage in the country by 2030 the Philippines pluvial floods, Visayas regions, particularly Regions VIII under SSP5-8.5. (Eastern Visayas) and VII (Central Visayas), are projected to undergo the highest change (~3%) in average flooding by 2030 (SSP5-8.5 scenario), underscoring the need for additional adaptation efforts in those areas. 127 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.3.8: Map of 21-year historical average pluvial flooding height (meters) and projected 2030 (2020-2040) and 2050 (2040-2060) pluvial flooding height change (%) in a 10-year return period163 Note: Historical figure is limited based on river and rain gauge availability within any historical 21-year period (treated as an uncertain variable); Flooding height change in 2030 (2020-2040) and 2050 (2040-2060) compared to 21-year baseline Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.3.9: Map of 21-year historical area impacted from pluvial flooding (square kilometers) and projected 2030 (2020-2040) and 2050 (2040-2060) pluvial flooding height change (%) in a 10-year return period164 Note: Historical figure is limited based on river and rain gauge availability within any historical 21-year period (treated as an uncertain variable); Area impacted defined as located in area flooding with at least 30 cm to 60 cm of water Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map 163, 164 – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 128 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Areas affected by pluvial flooding are projected to increase. In SSP5-8.5 by 2050, Palawan as well as provinces in Visayas and Mindanao are projected to have the highest increase in areas flooded with up to 20% increase for 10-year return period flooding. Table 3.3.3.3: Average depth of areas flooded (meters) due to pluvial flooding, percent change in region average flooding versus 21-historical baseline, population impacted (range of 30 to 60 cm of flooding), percent of total population impacted using 2020 population figures, area impacted, change in region area impacted versus 21-year historical baseline, and economic impact (infrastructure damage) under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2030 in a 10-year return period.165 % of Total Average Average Population Area Area Economic Flooding % Pop. Impacted REGION Flooding Impacted Impacted Impacted Impact Change vs. (K People) (meters) (2020 (sq km) (sq km) (PHP Bn) Historical Population) Cordillera Administrative 7.9 0% 110-140 6-8% 759 1% 7 Region Region IV-B 4.6 2% 70-150 2-5% 922 2% 10 Region II 4.3 0% 110-220 3-6% 1379 1% 13 Region I 4.2 1% 150-300 3-6% 872 1% 18 Region X 4.2 0% 160-320 3-6% 621 2% 13 Region XI 4.0 -1% 70-170 1-3% 516 1% 11 Region XII 3.7 1% 60-170 1-3% 523 1% 10 Region XIII 3.6 -2% 50-130 2-5% 868 1% 8 Climate Changes in Region V 3.6 0% 210-410 3-7% 937 2% 21 Region IV-A 3.6 0% 480-880 3-6% 868 1% 56 the Philippines Region III 3.4 1% 220-520 2-4% 1358 1% 33 Region VI 3.1 0% 170-410 2-5% 815 2% 21 Region VIII 2.8 3% 110-280 2-6% 1032 3% 16 Region IX 2.8 1% 80-200 2-5% 453 3% 8 Region VII 2.2 3% 130-320 2-4% 363 3% 18 Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 2.1 2% 80-160 2-4% 433 1% 7 M u s l i m Mindanao National C a p i t a l 0.4 -27% 20-50 0-0% 5 21% 4 Region Top metrics under each category 165 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 129 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Note: Table sorted based on average flooding (meters). Luzon Regions I (Ilocos region), II Figures in highlight top figures under respective metrics; (Cagayan Valley), and III (Central Figures are approximations; Population impacted Luzon) are expected to have the rounded; Population and area impacted defined as highest population exposure to population or area located in area flooding with at least fluvial floods and the most significant 30cm-60cm of water (table excludes regions that do not infrastructure damages. meet parameters) While the average flooding depth is projected to increase Note: Historical figure is limited based on river and rain most significantly in certain regions of Mindanao, gauge availability within any historical 21-year period the socioeconomic impact of fluvial flooding is most (treated as an uncertain variable); Area impacted defined pronounced in Regions I (Ilocos Region), II (Cagayan as located in area flooding with at least 30cm-60cm Valley), and III (Central Luzon) in Luzon. These regions of water bear the heaviest burden, with up to 130k people Regions in Luzon are projected to impacted and PHP6 billion in damages, accounting for face the highest pluvial flooding 47% of the total fluvial infrastructure damage (PHP6 depths and overall population and billion of 13 billion) in 2030 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. economic impact. By recognizing the unique challenges faced by Fluvial floods have historically been prevalent in the Mindanao regions, as well as the emerging Mindanao regions due to the presence of several river vulnerabilities in regions IX (Zamboanga Peninsula), basins in the area, including the Mindanao, Agusan, VIII (Eastern Visayas), and VII (Central Visayas), and Tagum-Libuganon, Davao, Agus, Cagayan De Oro, the socioeconomic impact in regions I (Ilocos Region), Tagoloan, and Buayan basins, among others.166 II (Cagayan Valley), and III (Central Luzon), stakeholders Projections indicate that Mindanao regions will continue can develop targeted strategies to enhance resilience, to face significant fluvial flood challenges, with the reduce risks, and protect communities from the Climate Changes in highest levels of average flooding found in regions XII devastating impacts of fluvial flooding in the years (SOCCSKSARGEN), X (Northern Mindanao), and XI to come. (Davao Region) in Mindanao, where average fluvial the Philippines flooding depths are expected to reach between 4 to 5 m by 2030 (SSU5-8.5 scenario) (see Table 3.3.3.4). However, it is crucial to highlight the growing vulnerability of regions IX (Zamboanga Peninsula), VIII (Eastern Visayas), and VII (Central Visayas), as these regions are projected to experience the largest increase in average flooding, emphasizing the need for robust preparedness and resilience strategies to address the potential impacts of fluvial flooding in the coming decades (see Figure 3.3.3.10 and Table 3.3.3.4). 166 DOST-PAGASA, 2023 130 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.3.10: Map of 21-year historical average fluvial flooding height (meters) and projected 2030 (2020-2040) and 2050 (2040-2060) pluvial flooding height change (%) in a 10-year return period167 Note: Historical figure is limited based on river and rain gauge availability within any historical 21-year period (treated as an uncertain variable); Flooding height change in 2030 (2020-2040) and 2050 (2040-2060) compared to 21-year baseline The average projected fluvial flood height (river flooding) is projected to increase most in certain provinces in Visayas and Mindanao due to the rugged and mountainous terrain, which contributes to faster water runoff during heavy rain events. Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.3.11: Map of 21-year historical area impacted from fluvial flooding (square kilometers) and projected 2030 (2020-2040) and 2050 (2040-2060) pluvial flooding height change (%) in a 10-year return period168 Note: Historical figure is limited based on river and rain gauge availability within any historical 21-year period (treated as an uncertain variable); Area impacted defined as located in area flooding with at least 30 cm-60 cm of water Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map 167, 168 – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 131 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The projected area impacted by fluvial flooding (river flooding) is projected to increase most in certain provinces in Visayas and Mindanao due to the rugged and mountainous terrain, which contributes to faster water runoff during heavy rain events. Table 3.3.3.4: Average depth of areas flooded (meters) due to fluvial flooding, percent change in region average flooding versus 21-historical baseline, population impacted (range of 30 to 60 cm of flooding), percent of total population impacted using 2020 population figures, area impacted, change in region area impacted versus 21-year historical baseline, and economic impact (infrastructure damage) under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2030 in a 10-year return period169 Average % of Total Area Average Area Economic Flooding % Pop. Impacted Pop. Impacted Impacted % REGION Flooding Impacted Impact Change vs. (K People) (2020 Change vs. (meters) (sq km) (PHP) 2020 Population) 2020 Region XII 4.8 4% 10-20 0-0% 44 16% 1 Region X 4.5 -5% 10-20 0-0% 15 18% 1 Region XI 4.4 2% 10-20 0-0% 53 4% 1 Region XIII 3.9 -1% 20-30 1-1% 155 7% 2 Region VII 3.8 30% 3-3 0-0% 1 42% 0 Cordillera Administrative 3.8 0% 10-10 0-0% 24 9% 0 Region Region II 3.6 4% 40-50 1-1% 82 18% 2 Region I 2.1 2% 20-30 0-0% 54 12% 2 Climate Changes in Region III 2.1 1% 30-50 0-0% 62 17% 2 Region VIII 1.8 31% 3-5 0-0% 14 15% 0 the Philippines Region VI 1.7 -18% 20-20 0-0% 44 13% 1 Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 1.1 6% 5-10 0-0% 51 37% 1 M u s l i m Mindanao Region IX 0.9 68% 2-2 0-0% 11 41% 0 Region V 0.5 -2% 1-1 0-0% 2 52% 0 Top metrics under each category Note: Table sorted based on average flooding (meters). Figures in highlight top figures under respective metrics; Figures are approximations; Population impacted rounded; Population and area impacted defined as population or area located in area flooding with at least 30 cm to 60 cm of water (table excludes regions that do not meet parameters); Historical figure is limited based on river and rain gauge availability within any historical 21-year period (treated as an uncertain variable); Area impacted defined as located in area flooding with at least 30 cm to 60 cm of water 169 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 132 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Benguet, La Union, and Ilocos Sur provinces most susceptible to occurrence of landslides Table 3.3.3.5 presents the provinces with the highest average projected occurrence to landslides, indicating notable occurrence potential in Benguet, La Union, and Ilocos Sur. These regions have consistently shown elevated levels of susceptibility to landslides based on historical data and the main drivers that contribute to such incidents (see Figure 3.3.3.12). These drivers include factors such as vegetation cover, infrastructure development, slope steepness, and precipitation intensity. It is also important to note that Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan provinces are projected to have the greatest number of people impacted by landslide occurrence in a 10-year return period. Table 3.3.3.5: Top 10 provinces with highest average projected occurrence of landslides in a 10-year return period, maximum projected occurrence of landslides in a 10-year return period, population impacted, population impacted, percent of total population impacted using 2020 population figures, area impacted, percent of total area impacted, and economic impact170 Average Maximum Pop. Impacted Average projected projected (k people) Climate Changes in Area Impacted % REGION Province Flooding % occurrence in a occurrence in a / % of total (sq km) Change vs. 2020 10-year return 10-year return population (2020 the Philippines period period population) CAR Benguet 30% 62% 0.83 (100%) 3 005 (100%) 16% Region I La Union 21% 45% 0.63 (79%) 1 283 (86%) 18% Region I Ilocos Sur 18% 52% 0.37 (55%) 2 092 (79%) 4% CAR Abra 7% 27% 0.19 (74%) 3 695 (88%) 7% CAR Mountain Prov. 7% 44% 0.12 (78%) 1 561 (69%) 42% CAR Ifugao 4% 19% 0.13 (62%) 1 570 (59%) 9% Region I Pangasinan 3% 48% 0.55 (18%) 2 229 (41%) 18% Region I Ilocos Norte 3% 12% 0.23 (40%) 2 389 (68%) 12% Region II Nueva Vizcaya 3% 21% 0.28 (55%) 2 888 (66%) 17% Region III Zambales 3% 20% 0.57 (68%) 2 472 (63%) 15% Top metrics under each category Note: Table sorted based on projected occurrence—estimated annual frequency of significant landslides per square kilometer; Significant landslides are those which are likely to have been reported had they occurred in a populated place; Figures highlighted indicate top three figures under respective metrics; Population and area impacted defined as: population and area impacted if less than 500m away from area with an average projected landslide occurrence in 10-year period that is > 0% 170 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 133 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.3.12: Map of average landslide occurrence in a 10-year return period (%)171 Note: Projected occurrence—estimated annual frequency of significant landslides per square kilometer; Significant landslides are those which are likely to have been reported had they occurred in a populated place Climate Changes in

3.3.4 Extreme wind and tropical cyclone Future global trends the Philippines Key takeaways Globally, the IPCC in its Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate report projects an increase in the proportion and peak wind speeds of intense tropical cyclones in future scenarios. The said Special Report also indicates that the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching category 4 to 5 levels is projected to rise by approximately 1 to 10% with a 2°C global temperature increase. Average intensity of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) will increase. Tropical Cyclones (TCs), characterized by their powerful winds and devastating impacts, are among the principal hazards and risks associated with climate change. At the global scale, the IPCC in its Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Chapter 6 on Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks report indicates high level of confidence among climate scientists regarding the increased proportion and peak wind speeds of intense tropical cyclones in future scenarios. Tropical cyclones are projected to intensify with rising global temperatures, leading to an elevated potential of extreme TCs. According to IPCC, there is medium confidence that the proportion of TCs that reach Category 4 to 5 levels will increase, that the average intensity of TCs will increase (by roughly 1 to 10%, assuming a 2ºC global temperature rise), and that average TCs precipitation rates (for a given storm) will increase by at least 7% per degree Celsius SST warming, owing to higher atmospheric water vapor content.172 172 IPCC, 2019 134 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Projected Philippine trends Key takeaways While the frequency of TCs within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is projected to slightly decrease by up to -11% (~2TCs) in 2030 and up to -13% (~2.5TCs) in 2050 compared to historical (2010 to 2020) data, the decrease in the number of landfalling TCs is more pronounced, with projections showing a potential decrease of up to -51% to -52% (~3.5TCs) in 2030 and 2050. • Despite the decreasing frequency of TCs, the number of typhoons (118 to 184 km/h) is projected to increase up to 119% (from 3.6 up to 7.9), or more than double, by 2030 and 2050 compared to historical (2010 to 2020) data. Additionally, super typhoons (185+ km/h) are projected to slightly increase by around 24% (from 3.3 up to 4.1) in the 2030 decade and experience a more significant increase of about 76% (from 3.3 up to 5.8) in the 2050 decade, both compared to historical records. • By 2030 and 2050, tropical cyclones (TCs) are projected to experience significant increases in average maximum peak wind speed, reaching up to a 29% (from 113km/h to up to 146km/h) and 33% (from 113km/h to up to 150km/h) increase, respectively, compared to the historical average from 2010 to 2020. As the Philippines is located in a region highly vulnerable to the impacts of TCs, it is crucial to understand the potential trajectory of these TCs for the Philippines. Projections regarding the future behavior of TCs in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) are derived from an ensemble of sophisticated spatial probabilistic models that incorporate statistical correlations between tropical cyclones and various climate drivers173. These models provide valuable insights into the potential changes in TC characteristics, such as intensity and frequency. However, it is important to acknowledge that there are inherent challenges in accurately predicting the behavior and spatial variation of TCs due to their high variability and complex interactions with the climate system. To address these challenges, an ensemble of models is employed, enabling more stable model results for the assessment of future TC behavior. Climate Changes in Decreasing frequency, heightened devastating intensity of TCs Looking ahead to 2050, the projected decrease in TC frequency aligns closely with the 2030 figures for both PAR and landfalling TCs. The average number of TCs in PAR, previously recorded at 19.9 per year, is projected to decline the Philippines up to -13% to 18.3 (SSP5-8.5) or 17.3 (SSP2-4.5) annually (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). Similarly, the number of landfalling TCs is projected to decrease up to -52% from 7.3 in 2010 to 2020 to 4.0 (SSP5-8.5) or 3.5 (SSP2-4.5) by 2050 (see Figure 3.3.4.1). These findings are in line with Climate Model Simulations done by PAGASA and UK Met Office projecting that under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5), three of five model simulations suggest that decrease in TC frequency is significant.174 173 Climate drivers including mean sea level pressure, relative humidity (near surface), sea surface temperature, and tropopause temperature 174 DOST-PAGASA, 2018 135 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones, coupled with an increase in their intensity, can be attributed to a complex interplay of factors driven by climate change. While rising sea surface temperatures provide more energy for storm development and intensification, certain changes in atmospheric circulations within the tropics may act as a counterbalance. The warming of sea surface temperatures is known to fuel storms, making them more powerful. However, the altered atmospheric conditions may create a less favorable environment for the initial formation of storms.175 Notably, this intricate relation between several factors underscores the dynamic nature of climate change’s impact on TCs and must continue to be closely monitored. Figure 3.3.4.1: Number of TCs in the Philippine Area of Responsibility and landfalling Climate Changes in the Philippines on the Philippines under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios until period of 2050176, 177 However, despite the decrease in frequency, there is a noteworthy increase in TC intensity. Projections indicate a twofold increase in the occurrence of typhoons (118-184 km/h) in PAR compared to the previous decade (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). The average of 3.6 typhoons from 2010 to 2020 is projected to increase 119% to reach

7.5 (SSP5-8.5) to 7.9 (SSP2-4.5) per year between 2030 and 2040. The number of super typhoons (≥185 km/h) is projected to slightly increase 24% from the previous average of 3.3 per year to about 4.0 (SSP5-8.5) to 4.1 (SSP2-4.5) per year (see Figure 3.3.4.2) (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). By 2050-2060, there is an upward trend in super typhoons in PAR compared to the 2030-2040 projections. The range of typhoons per year in 2050 is generally lower than the 2030 figures, ranging from 6.7-7.3 typhoons per year.vProjections anticipate a 76% increase, reaching 5.2 (SSP2-4.5) to 5.8 (SSP5-8.5) super typhoons per year, surpassing the current level of 3.3 per year (see Figure 3.3.4.2). These projections highlight the potential escalation in TC intensity, particularly in the more severe categories, as the years progress. This substantial increase in the occurrence of stronger tropical cyclones poses significant risks, as they have the potential to unleash stronger associated winds, heavier precipitation, and intensified storm surges, leading to more severe impacts on the affected areas. 175 Kiest, 2023 176 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 177 Methodology provided in appendix. 136 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.4.2: Number of TCs per category in the Philippines under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in 2030 and 2050 in comparison to 2010-2020 baseline178, 179 2030 and 2050 in comparison to 2010-2020 baseline Philippine Area of Responsibility (not landfall) 2010 decade refers to period between 2010-2020 Climate Changes in 2030 decade refers to period between 2030-2040 2050 decade refers to period between 2050-2060 Note: PAGASA classification used – In terms of maximum sustained winds near the center: Tropical Depression: the Philippines <62km/h, Tropical storm: >62km/h & < 88km/h, Severe Tropical Storm: >88km/h & < 117 km/h; Typhoon: > 118 km/h & < 184 km/h; Super Typhoons: > 185 km/h TCs projected to surge in peak wind intensity Projections indicate a notable increase in the average maximum peak wind speed of TCs compared to the 2010 to 2020 average, suggesting potential changes in TC intensity. From 2010 to 2020, the average maximum wind speed of TCs stood at around 113 km/h per year. However, by 2030, projections suggest a potential rise of up to 29%, with average maximum wind speeds reaching 142 km/h (SSP2-4.5) and up to 146 km/h (SSP5-8.5). The strongest TCs in a given year are also projected to see an increase of up to 13%, with average speeds of 225 km/h from 2010-2020 projected to reach 241 km/h (SSP5-8.5) and up to 254 km/h (SSP2-4.5) (see Figure 3.3.4.3). By 2050, the projected increase in average peak wind speed of TCs is projected to escalate further compared to the 2030 figures. Forecasts estimate an increase of up to 33% compared to the 2010-2020 average of 113 km/h, with average maximum wind speeds ranging from 146 km/h (SSP2-4.5) to 150 km/h (SSP5-8.5). Moreover, the maximum wind speed of the strongest TCs in a given year is projected to rise by 15% by 2050, reaching approximately 258 km/h (SSP2-4.5) to 259 km/h (SSP5-8.5). These figures surpass the 2030 average projections of 241 to 254 km/h and the previous average of 225 km/h from 2010-2020 (see Figure 3.3.4.3). 178 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Landslides [Data model]. Retrieved from Global Landslide Hazard map – precipitation trigger from the World Bank, NASA Global Landslide Catalogue, NASA Global Susceptibility Map, NOAA CPC Precipitation Data, and WorldPop population databases. 179 Methodology provided in appendix. 137 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.4.3: Annual peak TC windspeed (km/h) using cyclone track simulation for Philippine Area of Responsibility across SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios until period of 2050180, 181 These findings align with climate model simulations concerning anticipated shifts in tropical cyclones, as conducted by PAGASA and the UK Met Office. These simulations indicate that among the five models, four concur on an expected increase in tropical cyclone intensity, with two of these projections signifying a noteworthy intensification. Climate Changes in Potential socio-economic impact Key takeaways the Philippines About six million Filipinos will face more than one TC occurrence with maximum winds exceeding 118 km/h, typhoon and/or super typhoon, translating to PHP83 billion and PHP78 billion in the 2030 and 2050 decades respectively. Table 3.3.4.1: Social and economic impact of Tropical cyclone occurrence > 118 km/h (Typhoons and/or Super Typhoons)182 Socioeconomic Impact 2030 Decade 2050 Decade Tropical Cyclone (2030-2040 Annualized Average) (2050-2060 Annualized Average) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Social impact: Population 1.7 million to 822 thousand to 607 thousand to 1 million to 6 million exposed 5.9 million 5.3 million 6 million Economic Impact: Infrastructure damage 56 billion 83 billion 73 billion 78 billion (PHP) 182 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Tropical Cyclones [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) databases. 138 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Note: Figures provided are approximations; Population exposed defined as population located in the track of Typhoons and/or Super Typhoons in a radius of 25 to 100 km2; Typhoon and Super Typhoon Occurrence: Estimated annual frequency of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon making landfall; 2030 decade: 2030 to 2040; 2050 decade: 2050 to 2060; 2010 to 2020 used as a baseline as data for socio-economic impact is only available from 2010 to 2020; 1 in 10 year return period; PAGASA classification used – In terms of maximum sustained winds near the center: Tropical Depression: <62km/h, Tropical storm: >62km/h & < 88km/h, Severe Tropical Storm: >88km/h & < 117 km/h; Typhoon: > 118 km/h & < 184 km/h; Super Typhoons: > 185 km/h Up to six million Filipinos exposed, with economic losses of PHP83 and 78 billion due to Typhoon and/or Super Typhoon occurrence in 2030 and 2050183 Analysis (see Table 3.3.4.1) reveals that, within a 25 km radius from the center of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon, up to 1.7 million Filipinos (SSP2-4.5) are projected to experience the direct impacts , potentially subjecting these people to displacement due to Typhoon or Super Typhoon destruction (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). Under the broader scenario of a 100 km radius from the center of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon, to increase to almost six million people impacted. In both scenarios, around one million to six million people (SSP2-4.5) potentially encounter at least one Typhoon or Super Typhoon during the 2050 decade. It is worth mentioning that while the SSP5-8.5 scenario exhibits higher intensity, the overall occurrence of tropical cyclones is not projected to show a significant difference or even decline slightly compared to SSP2-4.5. As a result, there will be a limited change in the number of affected individuals and areas in this regard. Regarding economic impact, specifically infrastructure damage resulting from the occurrence of typhoons or super typhoons with speeds exceeding 118 km/h, projections indicate potential damages of up to PHP83 billion by 2030 and PHP78 billion by 2050. Climate Changes in Most impacted regions the Philippines Key takeaways • Regions in Luzon are projected to be most vulnerable to Typhoon or Super Typhoon occurrence and higher wind intensities compared to other regions. • Top affected regions in terms of Typhoon or Super Typhoon occurrence by the 2030 decade under SSP5-8.5 scenario include regions II (Cagayan Valley), Region IV-B (MIMAROPA), and IV-A (CALABARZON). - Socioeconomic impact of extreme sea events highest in Luzon regions: IV-A, III, and NCR - Top regions in terms of population impacted within 100 km radius from the center of a typhoon or super typhoon include Luzon regions IV-A (CALABARZON), III (Central Luzon), and NCR, making up 47% (2.5 million of 5.3 million) of total population impacted within 100 km radius from the center of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon and 73% (603k of 822k) of total population impacted within 25 km radius from the center of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon by 2030 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. - These same regions are projected to bear the highest infrastructure damage due to Typhoon and/or Super Typhoon occurrences, accounting for up to PHP47 billion out of the projected PHP83 billion (57%) in infrastructure damage by 2030 under SSP5-8.5. 183 Methodology provided in appendix. 184 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Tropical Cyclones [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) databases. 139 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Regions in Luzon projected to be most a 25 km radius from the center of a Typhoon or Super impacted by Typhoon or Super Typhoon Typhoon by 2030 under SSP5-8.5 scenario (see Table occurrence and increased wind intensity 3.3.4.2). Regions in Luzon are predicted to be relatively more These same regions are projected to bear the highest exposed to Typhoon and/or Super Typhoon occurrence infrastructure damage due to Typhoon and/or Super by 2030 and 2050 (see Figure 3.3.4.4). By 2030 to 2040 Typhoon occurrences, accounting for up to PHP47 billion decade and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, regions II out of the projected PHP83 billion (57%) in infrastructure (Cagayan Valley), IV-B (MIMAROPA), and IV-A are damage by 2030 under SSP5-8.5 identified as the most vulnerable regions in terms of the overall occurrence of TC occurrence >118km/h, or Typhoons and/or Super Typhoons. In this scenario, Region II faces a potential of 89% for the occurrence of Typhoon or Super Typhoons in a year, which translates to an average of one Typhoon or Super Typhoon every 1.1 years. Region IV-B exhibits potential of 58% for the occurrence of Typhoon or Super Typhoons in a year, with an average frequency of one Typhoon or Super Typhoon every 1.7 years. Region IV-A faces a high potential of TC occurrence of 47%, translating to one Typhoon or Super Typhoon every 2.1 years. Albeit similar frequency levels compared to the 2020 country profile, it must be recognized that the intensity of these tropical cyclones is projected to escalate over Climate Changes in time. By 2030 and 2050, TCs are projected to intensify across the nation, with a more pronounced impact in the Luzon regions (see Figure 3.3.4.5). These regions the Philippines require special attention and preparedness measures to mitigate the impacts of these potentially devastating weather events. Regions IV-A (Calabarzon), III (Central Luzon), and NCR (National Capital Region) in Luzon will have the largest absolute socioeconomic impact Furthermore, in terms of the absolute number of the population impacted, with population impacted defined as the population within a 25 km to 100 km radius of the center of the cyclone, the data shows that Regions IV-A (Calabarzon), III (Central Luzon), and NCR (National Capital Region) make up 47% (2.5 million of 5.3 million) of the total population impacted within a 100 km radius from the center of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon and 73% (603k of 822k) of the total population impacted within 183 Methodology provided in appendix. 184 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Tropical Cyclones [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) databases. 140 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.4.4: Typhoon and Super Typhoon occurrence potential by 2030 and 2050 decade185 Note: Typhoon and Super Typhoon Occurrence: Estimated annual frequency of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon making landfall; 2030 decade: 2030-2040; 2050 decade: 2050-2060; 2010-2020 used as a baseline as data for socio-economic impact is only available from 2010-2020; PAGASA classification used – In terms of maximum sustained winds near the center: Tropical Depression: <62km/h, Tropical storm: >62km/h & < 88km/h, Severe Tropical Storm: >88km/h & < 117 km/h; Typhoon: > 118 km/h & < 184 km/h; Super Typhoons: > 185 km/h Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.4.5: Upper panel – Maximum wind intensity of Typhoons and Super Typhoons; Lower panel – change in maximum wind intensity of Typhoon or Super Typhoons versus 2010-2020 baseline186 Note: 2030 decade: 2030-2040; 2050 decade: 2050-2060; 2010-2020 used as a baseline as data for socio-economic impact is only available from 2010-2020; PAGASA classification used – In terms of maximum sustained winds near the center: Tropical Depression: <62km/h, Tropical storm: >62km/h & < 88km/h, Severe Tropical Storm: >88km/h & < 117 km/h; Typhoon: > 118 km/h & < 184 km/h; Super Typhoons: > 185 km/h Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Tropical Cyclones [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model 185, 186 Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) databases. 141 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 3.3.4.2: Typhoon and/or Super Typhoon occurrence in a 10-year return period, maximum wind speed, population impacted by Typhoon or Super Typhoon occurrence in a 100 km and 25 km radius from the center of the cyclone, area impacted, and percent of total area impacted by Typhoon or Super Typhoon occurrence in a 100 km and 25 km radius from the center of the cyclone, and economic impact (PHP) under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2030 to 2040 decade187 Typhon and/ Pop. Impacted Pop. Impacted Area Impacted % of Total % of Total Economic or Super Max wind (k people) (k people) (‘000 sq km) % of Total REGION Pop. Pop. Impact Typhoon speed (km/h) Within 100km within 25km 25km to Area Impacted (2020 figures) (2020 figures) (PHP Bn) Occurrence Radius Radius 100km Range Region II 89% 220 241 7% 20 1% 1-22 4%-77% 2 R e g i o n 58% 248 166 5% 26 1% 2 -15 6%-55% 3 IV-B R e g i o n 47% 232 1,048 7% 411 3% 3 -14 17%-85% 27 IV-A Region V 44% 218 410 7% 29 0% 1 -13 5%-75% 6 Region I 40% 180 341 7% 60 1% 1 -10 8%-76% 5 Region III 36% 224 772 6% 58 0% 3 -17 16%-78% 11 Region VIII 31% 172 282 6% 11 0% 1 -15 3%-71% 2 Region VI 24% 184 503 6% - 0% 0-12 0%-59% 8 CAR 22% 183 110 6% 52 3% - - 2 Region XIII 18% 214 156 6% 15 1% 0-9 1%-46% 2 Region VII 16% 204 493 6% 3 0% 1 -5 7%-33% 4 Region XI 7% 205 - 0% - 0% 0-7 1%-38% 0 Region X 7% 182 106 2% 4 0% 0-4 0%-22% 1 Region XII 4% 154 - 0% - 0% 0-1 0%-4% 0 Region IX 4% 161 - 0% - 0% - - 0 Climate Changes in National Capital 4% 220 714 6% 135 1% 0-1 4%-86% 9 Region the Philippines Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 2% 139 - 0% - 0% 0-1 0%-7% 1 M u s l i m Mindanao Top metrics under each category Note: Table sorted based on Typhoon or Super Typhoon occurrence column; Figures highlighted indicate top figures under respective metrics; Typhoon or Super Typhoon Occurrence: Estimated annual frequency of a Typhoon or Super Typhoon making landfall; 2030 decade: 2030-2040; 2050 decade: 2050-2060; 2010-2020 used as a baseline as data for socio-economic impact is only available from 2010-2020; Population and area impacted defined as population and area located in the track of Typhoons and Super Typhoons’ in a radius of 25 to 100km from the center of the cyclone; PAGASA classification used – In terms of maximum sustained winds near the center: Tropical Depression: <62km/h, Tropical storm: >62km/h & < 88km/h, Severe Tropical Storm: >88km/h & < 117 km/h; Typhoon: > 118 km/h & < 184 km/h; Super Typhoons: > 185 km/h Note: A larger version of the figure is available in Appendix 6 187 Boston Consulting Group. (2023). Data Model on Tropical Cyclones [Data model]. Retrieved from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) databases. 142 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

3.3.5 Provincial categorization based on climate exposure Future global trends The previous sections in this subchapter delved into each CID and the social, economic, and physical impacts they may bring to the Philippines. In this section of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), the information from previous subsections is used to categorize provinces based on the exposure they are projected to face in the coming decades. The considered dimensions span across the physical, social, and economic domains, and are analyzed both for individual CIDs as well as at an overall, multi-CID level. As a nation with finite resources and exceedingly diverse levels of vulnerability across different provinces, this categorization helps support optimized decision making and distribution of resources, concentrating support where it is most urgently needed. While analyses in previous sections were done at a regional level, categorizations were further distilled into provinces given the presence of governing bodies at the provincial level– mapping of provinces to their respective regions can be seen in Appendix 1. Provinces are split into five distinct categories, depending on percentile value of their exposure compared across other Philippine provinces, defined in Figure 3.3.5.1. Figure 3.3.5.2 showcases a risk categorization splitting provinces into quintiles188 based on exposure arising from climate-driven social, economic, and physical impacts across all CIDs189 in the decade of 2030, SSP5-8.5. CID-specific categorizations and detailed information on methodology can be found in Appendix 1. Climate Changes in the Philippines Figure 3.3.5.1 Definition of each risk category Provinces within each quintile are listed in alphabetical order. 188 Dimensions were weighted to ensure equal significance of physical, social, and economic impacts. 189 Sea level rise, Extreme Sea Levels, pluvial and fluvial flooding: Social - absolute population exposed and % of provincial population exposed, absolute and % of provincial impoverished population exposed; Economic - Damage cost as an absolute number and as a % of regional GDP; Physical: Absolute area exposed and % of total provincial area exposed. Extreme Heat: Social - absolute # agricultural & construction workers in region and as % of total region workforce. Extreme Wind: Social - absolute population exposed and % of provincial population exposed, absolute and % of provincial impoverished population exposed; Economic - Damage cost as an absolute number and as a % of regional GDP. 143 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 3.3.5.2 Projected provincial risk categorization between 2030-2040, SP5-8.5 Note: Provinces are arranged alphabetically within each category The provincial categorization highlighted in Figure 3.3.5.2, when combined with factors such as vulnerability and adaptive capacity serves as an insightful reference point to support decision-making on adaptation action at a localized level. It is important to note that many of the components that make up this categorization Climate Changes in will need to be downscaled at a more granular level in the future. Moving forward, downscaled, localized studies within high-risk localities must be performed to supplement this analysis. Combined, these studies can enable a well-informed selection of adaptation strategies, which can be chosen from the portfolios identified in the following the Philippines chapter on Adaptation Priorities. Social vulnerability and underlying impact-drivers The concept of vulnerability encompasses a broad spectrum of interpretations within existing literature. While commonly viewed as a precondition, some scholars interpret it as an outcome. Vulnerability encompasses three distinct aspects: it indicates a result rather than a cause; it signifies an unfavorable outcome; and it operates as a comparative term, distinguishing among socio-economic groups or regions rather than serving as an absolute gauge of deprivation (Downing, 1991). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a definition rooted in exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity: “Vulnerability delineates the degree to which a system is prone to, or unable to effectively manage detrimental impacts stemming from climate change, encompassing variations in climate patterns and extremes. This factor hinges not solely on a system’s sensitivity but also on its capacity to adapt.” (IPCC, 2007). In its Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Cycle, the IPCC further stated: Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change. Human and ecosystem vulnerability are interdependent. Regions and people with considerable development constraints have high vulnerability to climatic hazards. 144 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Increasing weather and climate extreme events have The factors that characterize vulnerability include exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and socio-economic status (e.g., income, political power, reduced water security, with the largest adverse impacts and prestige), gender, race and ethnicity, age, rural/ observed in many locations and/or communities in urban location, residential property, renters, family Africa, Asia, Central and South America, LDCs, Small structure, education, social dependence, and special Islands and the Arctic, and globally for Indigenous needs populations, among others.195 In Metro Manila, peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income low-income households in informal settlements do not households. Between 2010 and 2020, human mortality have adequate access to potable water, electricity, from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in health services, and sewage and sanitation facilities highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very suffer significant impacts from tropical cyclones, floods, low vulnerability.190 and tidal/storm surges.196 In remote coastal communities, In the context of comprehensive climate risk assessment, factors that influence social vulnerability include are vulnerability includes environmental, physical, household size, members with disability, and travel time technical, social, cultural, economic, institutional, and to town center.197 policy-related factors that contribute to susceptibility and/ Mortality rates from tropical cyclones are influenced or lack of capacity to prepare, prevent, cope, or adapt.191 more by population exposure and socio-economic The study “Approaches to the Vulnerability to Climate conditions rather than the hazard itself.198 In the Super Change”192 posited that vulnerability to climate change Typhoon Haiyan-affected areas in Leyte, exposure to encompasses changes in individual and collective flood and storm surge, vulnerability of livelihoods, low vulnerability over time associated with the changing level of information and awareness, and lack of disaster incidence of extreme events. Policies relevant to the preparedness contributed to social vulnerability.199 reduction of social vulnerability to climate variability also Communities living in areas prone to tropical cyclones support the capacity of vulnerable groups to maintain and floods are found to be highly vulnerable to chronic resources and to invest in maintaining these resources poverty, showing a positive correlation between poverty Climate Changes in in the long run. Building social capital and trust networks, and the frequency of tropical cyclones or disasters.200 especially with state institutions, becomes essential due the Philippines to extreme events and disasters.193 190 A.2.2, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf 191 UNDRR (2022) “Technical Guidance on Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Planning in the Context of Climate Change”, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. 192 Adger, W. Neil. Center for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia and University College London. 1995//ISSN 0967-8875. 193 Porio, E. and See, J. 2017. Social Well-Being in the Philippines: Indicators and Patterns. The Senshu Social Well-being Review 4, 95-116. 194 See, J. and Porio, E. 2015. Assessing Social Vulnerability to Flooding in Metro Manila Using Principal Component Analysis. Philippine Sociological Review 63, 53-80. 195 Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J. & Shirley, W.L., 2003. Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards. Social Science Quarterly, 84(2), 242–261. 196 Porio, E. 2011. Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Resilience to Floods and Climate Change-Related Risks among Marginal, Riverine Communities in Metro Manila. Asian Journal of Social Science 39, 425–445. 197 Delfino, A.N., Dizon, J.T., Quimbo, M.A.T. and Depositario, D.P.T. 2019. Social Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts of Women-headed Households in the Philippines: A Comparative Analysis. Journal of Environmental Science and Management 22 (2), 36-54. 198 Toda, L., Orduna, J.R., Lasco, R., and Santos, C.T. 2016. Assessing Social Vulnerability to Climate-Related Hazards Among Haiyan-affected Areas in Leyte, Philippines. Climate, Disaster and Development Journal 1, 39-53. 199 Yonson, R., Noy, I. and Gaillard, J.C. 2018. The Measurement of Disaster Risk: An Example from Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines. Review of Development Economics 22 (2), 736–765. 200 Balisacan, A., and N. Fuwa. 2001. Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in the Philippines, UPSE Discussion Paper, 1–9 and Balisacan, A., and E. Pernia. 2002. What Else Besides Growth Matters for Poverty Reduction? ERD Policy Brief No. 5. February 2002 145 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 This process reflects the value of more granular information and datasets to highlight the aspect of social protection among the purposes of the NAP. Each CID was analyzed in terms of its impacts, taking into account that projections indicate hazards to significantly intensify for the country under 2030 (short-term) and 2050 (long-term) horizons, and under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. To illustrate the regard for the social dimension of the NAP, the data analytics highlight the following: a. Incorporation of estimates of economic impacts by the CIDs; and Through social vulnerability analysis, the relationships b. Computation of ranking of regions based on between climate impacts, adaptation strategies, and CID vulnerability. socio-economic impacts can be defined, qualified, and The social indicators are then applied to ensure that quantified. This analysis is undertaken at macro, meso, the solutions are inclusive and appropriate as they aim and micro levels looking into the vertical and horizontal to increase adaptive capacity, and at the same time, to linkages and interactions of social variables.201 leverage investment opportunities. Through a composite social vulnerability index in the Philippines, for example, a trend of decreasing social The application of Cost-Benefit Analysis, Social vulnerability from south to north is observed within Accounting Matrix, and the use of scorecards is the municipalities of the southern and western coastal necessary to capture local (in terms of location) and regions of MIMAROPA, Zamboanga Peninsula, social (in terms of human and community dimensions) Climate Changes in BARMM and SOCCSKSARGEN exhibiting the highest vulnerability and are conducted to support targeted and levels of social vulnerability.202, 203 The structure of deliberate determination of solutions based on scientific assessments of gaps and needs for adaptation and the Philippines social vulnerability among urban populations is found to be evolving, and becoming complex involving multiple sustainable development. stakeholders based on social vulnerability analyses conducted in Metro Manila, Iloilo City, and Naga City.204 The data modeling exercises in the above sub-chapters feature four (4) Climatic Impact Drivers (CID)— (1) increased temperature and drought, (2) extreme precipitation, (3) sea level rise and extreme sea levels, and (4) extreme winds and tropical cyclones—which were prioritized to understand the impacts of climate change in the Philippines and upon which adaptation options were derived across the targeted sector outcomes. 201 Porio, E. and See, J. 2023. Manila: Aspiring to be an Inclusive, Resilient, and Sustainable City amidst Climate and Disaster Risks. In R. Hu (ed) Routledge Handbook of Asian Cities. 202 Lloyd, S., Gray, J., Healey, S., and Opdyke, A. 2022. Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in the Philippines. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 79, 103103. 203 Ignacio, J.A. 2014. Measuring social vulnerability to climate change-induced hazards in the Philippines. PhD Dissertation. Département de Géographie, Université de Namur. 203 Porio, E. et al. 2021. WP 1.2.3 Social Vulnerability Analysis using PCA. Final Synthesis Report (2018-2021): Coastal Cities at Risk in the Philippines (CCARPH) Investing in Climate and Disaster Resilience Project. IDRC Project No. 108688, CRM: 002425. 146 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The various interventions advanced by the UNDRR in its “disaster risk reduction tools and methods for climate change adaptation” support an effective framework for consolidating knowledge and experiences on disaster management and climate action to build adaptive capacity by communities. Seven approaches, applicable to particular regions, cover the following areas of intervention: a. Political commitment and institutional aspects b. Risk identification and early warning c. Knowledge management and education d. Risk management applications e. Preparedness and response The foregoing methodological approaches are considered to be helpful in ushering in a future-thinking approach to managing climate risks, and, ultimately, establish a cohesive, convergent, and results-oriented adaptation planning and implementation. This is consistent with the NCRMF, which upholds an anticipatory, probabilistic, and holistic risk assessment, planning, and management approach in support of sustainable development. Climate Changes in the Philippines 205 https://www.undrr.org/publication/disaster-risk-reduction-tools-and-methods-climate-change-adaptation 147 Tubbataha Reef, Puerto Princesa City 04 Adaptation Priorities National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 4. Adaptation Priorities

4.1 Introduction to Priority Sectors for Adaptation and Resilience This chapter outlines the adaptation priorities for eight (8) sector outcomes that underpin the Philippines’ economic and social development under the SF outlined in Chapter 1. As underscored in the previous chapters, the frequency and intensity of multiple climatic-impact drivers (CID), the significant uncertainties sustained in projected risks due to climate change, and various challenges in implementing adaptation solutions all call for a systematic approach to defining and prioritizing strategies to increase resiliency. To effectively build resilience to minimize climate-related loss and damage, and increase adaptive capacity towards the transformation of resilient and sustainable socio-economic development, eight key sector outcomes have been selected as pillars for adaptation actions for societal well-being and stability, and economic resilience. These include Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security; Water Resources; Health; Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement and Migration; Land Use and Human Settlements; Livelihoods and Industries; and Energy, Transport and Communications. The table below provides an overview of the importance of the sector and the need for adaptation and resilience considering the impacts of climate change: Sector Importance of Sector and the need for adaptation and resilience206 Agriculture and Fisheries The production of crops, livestock, aquaculture, and fishery systems in the and Food Security Philippines is critical to food security, as 75% of food consumed in the country is produced locally207. In addition, one out of ten households in the Philippines continue to be food insecure. Additionally, agriculture and fisheries are significant sectors of the economy as it contributes 8.9% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022208. The agriculture sector constitutes a quarter of the nation’s workforce, with 30% of this segment living in poverty209, leading to their heightened vulnerability against climate change. Adaptation Priorities 206 Sources for key statistics and information per sector can be found in the respective sectoral sub-chapters in Chapter 4.2 207 Philippine Statistics Authority. (2022). Food Balance Sheets of the Philippines, 2019-2021 208 Philippine Statistics Authority (2023). National Accounts of the Philippines (as of April 2023) 209 Philippine Statistics Authority. (2021). 2021 Full Year Official Poverty Statistics Among The Basic Sector in the Philippines 149 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Water Resources Water resources are essential for human survival and economic activity, such as agricultural irrigation, fishery production, hydropower generation, and industrial production. A rapidly growing population without appropriate planning and investment into water systems has led to national water stress levels twice the global average—12.4 million (12%) Filipinos lack basic access to drinking water (2015)210, while 26 million Filipinos do not have access to basic sanitation. In 2022, the DOH estimated that out of the 25.5 million households, 2.87 million (11.26%) have no access to basic water supply, 4.17 million (16.36%) with no basic sanitation facilities211.This situation may be further exacerbated by climate change, leading to cascading impacts on other sectors, such as health, where contaminated water sources are a significant source of waterborne diseases in the Philippines. Health More than 110 million Filipinos rely on the healthcare system to effectively anticipate, respond, and recover from climate-related disasters and climate-induced diseases. Climate change drivers have been seen to increase the incidence of vector-borne diseases like dengue and malaria. With only 56% of public health facilities sufficiently stocked with selected essential medicines and less than 25% of cities and municipalities having health worker density above recommended levels, the sector has limited capacity to respond effectively to sudden and increased healthcare demands, disproportionately impacting low-income populations who cannot afford private healthcare. Ecosystems and The Philippines’ ecosystem makes it one of the 17 mega-biodiverse countries Biodiversity in the world. It also provides livelihood and value across key industries, such as aquaculture, agriculture, fisheries, and tourism, and protects surrounding communities from climate hazards. In particular, the Philippines’ coral reefs (~70k PHP/ha annually), forests (~200k PHP/ha annually), and mangroves (~200k PHP/ha annually) have been estimated to generate billions of Philippine pesos in ecosystem services annually. Adaptation Priorities These ecosystems have been heavily exploited over the past decade due to human-made developments and climatic-impact drivers, putting the ecosystems and the communities who depend on them for livelihood and protection at risk. Cultural Heritage, Extreme climate events and risks will continue to affect migration Population Displacement patterns in the country: more than 15 million estimated Filipinos and Migration were displaced by 245 climate disaster events from 2020 to 2022. Especially vulnerable to displacement and migration caused by sudden-onset climate events such as tropical cyclones, and slow onset climate risks (e.g., rising sea levels and associated adverse impacts) are 14 to 17 million indigenous people (IP) that inhabit the Philippines, belonging to 110 different ethnolinguistic groups, with 73% of all IPs belonging to the 40% poorest of the population. 210 National Economic and Development Authority. (2022). Philippine Water Supply and Sanitation Master Plan (PWSSMP). Pasig City, Philippines 211 Department of Health (2023). Field Health Services Information System 2022 Annual Report. 150 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Land Use and Human With 60% of Philippine cities located along the coast, the country’s coastal areas Settlements and low-lying regions are especially susceptible to climate hazards, where an estimated 5.4 million Filipinos live. Rapid urbanization has led to unplanned land use and increasing informal settlements in hazard-prone areas; an estimated 2.45 million impoverished Filipinos live in informal settlements and have limited ability and resources to withstand and recover from climate disasters. Livelihoods and Industries Resilience in key industries in the Philippines must be built to protect the country’s economic and social stability amidst increasing climate hazards and risks, especially since industries and their energy supplies are also significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Key industries that contribute heavily to the Philippines’ GDP must be protected, particularly Manufacturing (17.2%), Tourism (6.2%), and Professional Services (6.1%)212, thus safeguarding the livelihood of over 12 million Filipinos who rely on these industries. Energy, Transport, and Infrastructure such as energy, transport, and communications make up Communications critical systems that empower and interconnect industries, businesses, and households, facilitating economic activities and growth while providing communities with access to essential services. Rapid economic and population growth combined with poorly implemented programs have led to overloaded infrastructure systems, resulting in the Philippines having 1/3 the average Kilowatt hour (kWh) per capita, as well as having among the highest people-to-telecom-tower ratio at over 6000. The infrastructure systems are also among the most vulnerable to climate change, putting the various communities and organizations that depend on these services at risk. Future climate change may also change the demand required for these infrastructure services and it is critical to balance adaptation efforts with mitigation efforts given that current energy and transport systems are significant emitters of greenhouse gases. Adaptation Priorities While adaptation priorities in this NAP are outlined per sector, the NAP also recognizes the inextricable links between various sectors and emphasizes the need for an integrated approach to climate adaptation. The diagram below presents a non-exhaustive illustration of select interlinkages across various sectors. 212 Agriculture is also a key contributor to Philippines’ GDP (9%); adaptation priorities for this sector is captured under Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security. 151 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 4.1.1. Sample illustration on select interdependencies across key sectors. Ecosystems and biodiversity serve as the life support Strengthening resilience in these 'essential' services system, providing a range of services that directly and not only benefits each sector individually but also indirectly support human well-being and survival. These cascades to strengthen security for cultural heritage, services are tied to clean air and water, food production, population displacement and migration, sustain climate regulation, and cultural and recreational values. productivity in Livelihoods and Industries, and ensure Recognizing the critical importance of ecosystems livability in Land Use and Human Settlements. For is paramount, as their resilience directly impacts the example, a more resilient agricultural sector can longevity of access to basic needs. Protecting and enhance food security, reducing the need for population restoring these ecosystems not only safeguards displacement and migration due to resource scarcity. biodiversity but also enhances resilience to climate Similarly, investments in sustainable land use impacts, ensuring the sustainability of essential services and human settlements can mitigate the impacts for all Filipinos. of extreme weather events and support communities' Essential human needs across sectors are adaptability. The NAP emphasizes the value of deeply intertwined, forming a complex web of these interconnected benefits, promoting a synergistic approach that maximizes the Adaptation Priorities dependencies. Disruptions in these areas can trigger cascading impacts on other pivotal domains. co-benefits across sectors to build a more resilient and For instance, a severe drought affecting water adaptive Philippines. resources can have devastating consequences Beyond sectors above, other factors may also influence on agriculture and fisheries, and food security, the effectiveness of the Philippines’ climate response. as well as on energy and health outcomes For example, the nexus between population dynamics due to water scarcity and increased temperatures. and the adaptive capacity of communities is a critical Disruptions in energy, transport, and communication consideration when implementing the NAP. A growing system can disrupt the access to health infrastructure population can amplify vulnerabilities or contribute to through flooded roads, or interrupt health services resilience, depending on the availability of resources, due to power outages. The same can be said about impacts on agriculture and food security, and livelihood and industries. Disruptions in critical infrastructure can impact processing and transportation of products, thereby affecting accessibility, availability, and prices. 152 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 infrastructure, and socio-economic conditions. Rapid Four of the eight sectors, including Land Use and Human population growth can strain limited resources and Settlements, Energy, Transport, and Communications, infrastructure, making it challenging for communities to Livelihood and Industries, and Agriculture and Fisheries, adapt to climate impacts effectively. On the other hand, have economic costs of inaction sizeable enough to spur a stable and well-managed population can enhance a action. For these sectors, the case for taking adaptive community's adaptive capabilities, demonstrating the measures is clear: there is a compelling need to ability to absorb shocks and recover from climate-related accelerate efforts to mitigate the cost of inaction. Doing events, and work on transformational sustainable so is crucial to ensuring the continuous functioning of resilience pathway for the long term. critical infrastructure, protecting communities, and In summary, disruptions in any one sector or factor can sustaining livelihoods in the face of an increasingly create a vicious cycle of vulnerability and exacerbate the unpredictable climate. challenges of climate change. Protecting and enhancing However, it is equally crucial to consider the needs ecosystems, understanding the interdependencies of women, youth and those with special needs, and among essential human needs, and strengthening the other indirect social costs of inaction, such resilience across sectors are all central tenets of as health impacts, loss of ecosystem services, the plan. Thus, the NAP recognizes the necessity of conflict and security risks, and psychological integrated, cross-sectoral approaches to address these and social stress. While these costs are not interdependencies and promote holistic resilience. comprehensively quantified within socioeconomic models, a comprehensive assessment might reveal that

4.1.1 Sectoral Categorization Based these indirect consequences can be equally, if not more, on Climate Risks detrimental to the Philippines. A broad estimation of the impacts across the CIDs to Sectors such as Water Resources, Cultural Heritage, each sector was conducted. In line with the methodology Ecosystems and Biodiversity, and Agriculture and for high-level socioeconomic model, the projected cost of Fisheries and Food Security provide essential human inaction indicates the costs associated with infrastructure needs. Social costs attributed to systemic impacts in damage, productivity loss, and relocation of populations case disruptions happen in these sectors can vary in relation to each sector. Recognizing these aspects widely. For these sectors, the approach to adaptation holds significant implications for determining the action may differ. There is a need for next-level optimal timing and approach that the Philippines should impact assessments to trace pathways by which initial adopt in addressing adaptation measures for each of climate change impacts can trigger secondary and these sectors. tertiary consequences. Adaptation Priorities Economic implications of inaction in the face of climate change impacts are unambiguous. The cost of inaction in the 2030 decade is estimated to be PHP645 billion per year across these eight sectors213. Failing to proactively address the challenges posed by climate change places not only the well-being of Filipinos at risk but also poses a substantial economic burden for the nation. 213 Estimated through climate analytics models using scenario SSP 5-8.5 across five climatic impact-drivers and attributed to selected sectors; overall economic cost of inaction including impacts beyond eight sectors are outlined in Chapter 3; detailed methodology for the climate analytics model found on Appendix 2 153 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 4.1.2. Implications of adaptation and resilience actions based on projected socio-economic cost of inaction across sectors

4.1.2 Qualitative Assessment of The NCCAP M&E 2011-2016 provides valuable Existing Strategies points to adopt certain paradigm shifts in terms of the context and methodological considerations A review of existing mechanisms, including replicable or of adaptation actions, which are explored to be scalable case studies, can concretely model the way for incorporated in this NAP. This includes the following: cost-effective and transformative adaptation solutions that are founded on the best available science and a. Science serves as the basis for framing long-term recognize the value of traditional knowledge and tested adaptation planning, utilizing modeled scenarios practices on the ground. based on proper baselines and specific time horizons. One way to grasp a rather broad context of adaptation b. Funding mobilization should consider inputs from action is through an assessment of the first iteration private sector stakeholders and should capture of the NCCAP Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) innovative approaches to climate finance while Report for the period 2011-2016214. The development leveraging public sector investment. This should pathways under each thematic priority in the NCCAP215 consider the People’s Survival Fund (PSF), were evaluated based on the following parameters: Adaptation Priorities other climate and disaster funding mechanisms, 1. Governance readiness to adapt (e.g. Enabling and development assistance facilities for holistic policies and key plans and flagship programs, governance of climate adaptation measures. institutional capacity, capacity development, and The practice of Climate Change Expenditure knowledge management). Tagging (CCET) across a significant number 2. Adaptation action implementation (e.g. Programs of national government agencies and in and projects, social protection, financing) some local government units, which provides 3. Mitigation co-benefits further analysis of the correlation of agency 4. Contributions to enhancing adaptive budgets with projected risks in programs capacity, reducing vulnerability and and activities. sustained development 214 Climate Change Commission. (2019). The Philippine National Climate Change Action Plan Monitoring and Evaluation Report 2011-2016. Manila, Philippines. 215 The following are the NCCAP Seven thematic priorities: Food Security, Water Sufficiency, Ecosystems and Environmental Stability, Human Security, Climate-Smart Industries and Services, Sustainable Energy, and Knowledge and Capacity Development) 154 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 c. Co-benefits should be an integral component of the As part of the assessment and challenges, the chapter assessment, as adaptation is the anchor strategy recognizes that numerous policies have been adopted to of the Philippines under the National Framework ramp up climate action and strengthen disaster resilience. Strategy on Climate Change, and mitigation, while Apart from citing critical adaptation roadmaps on water functioning as “adaptation,” should concretely security, natural capital accounting, flood risk master provide pathways for emissions reduction and plans, green financing and bonds, and early warning avoidance. systems, it reiterated the importance of mainstreaming d. The delivery of the means of implementation climate action at the local and community levels. under the Paris Agreement should be tracked This underscores the importance of local-specific and evaluated, and should be aligned with climate adaptation solutions based on unique the needs-based, evidence-supported adaptation CIDs. Investments, therefore, need to be attuned priorities. to infrastructure support, social protection, e. A reliable data tracking system on the physical, and financing strategies to implement financial, and social impact progress of climate fit-for-purpose solutions that address social vulnerability action should be established. A general inventory of communities. of policy levers and global opportunities for Inadequate government budget allocation provides scaling up climate action should be conducted impetus to rethink climate financing regimes to catalyze to optimize the emerging space for innovation public and private support for climate action. This and transformation. Given these insights, a includes grants, subsidies, and incentives for particular reconfigured M&E structure and process could investment areas seen to enhance the capacity of human be formulated to align with the core dimensions resources and unlock the potential for innovation. and considerations of the NAP as a reenergized Analyzing the strategies in harmony with the other platform to pursue climate change adaptation critical roadmaps of government such as the Cabinet over the long term, consistent with the best Cluster on Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation and available science, including local and indigenous Disaster Risk Reduction (CCAM-DRR) Performance knowledge, and best available technologies. and Projects Roadmap (2018-2022), Public Investment The updated Philippine Development Plan (PDP) Program 2023-2028, National Security Policy 2023-2028 provides a dedicated chapter on climate 2023-2028, Resilient and Green Human Settlements change. Chapter 15, entitled Accelerate Climate Action Framework, National Innovation Agenda and Strategy and Strengthen Disaster Resilience, focuses on the Document 2023-2032, and Harmonized National Research and Development Agenda 2022-2028 to Adaptation Priorities challenges faced in climate action and disaster risk reduction and outlines the outcomes and strategies promote a transdisciplinary approach towards inclusive, to be pursued to address these challenges during the socially informed, and science-based climate actions period, namely: (a) climate and disaster risk resilience of and decisions over the long term. communities and institutions increased, (b) ecosystem resilience enhanced, and (c) low carbon economy transition enabled. The PDP also identified cross cutting strategies to improve governance and intersectionality of climate change and natural hazard resilience. 155 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

4.1.3 Approach to Determining Adaptation strategies for each priority outcomes were Adaptation Priorities then determined and prioritized with sectoral experts and various stakeholders to shape a full view of the Sector-specific adaptation themes are crafted Philippines’ adaptation priorities. Prioritization criteria for each sector, underpinned by a set of priority were used to determine priority sectoral strategies, adaptation outcomes, a consequent set of adaptation including alignment with existing mandates, breadth of strategies, and a high-level determination of key coverage across hazards and/or outcomes, scalability, implementation levers. These strategies are anchored track record and maturity, and urgency. These indicative on an understanding of the sector’s progress and key strategies outlined in the NAP are exhaustive list challenges in the Philippines, as well as an overview of the of strategies for the sector. Further downscaling and qualitative and quantitative climate change impacts on the contextualization may reveal additional strategies that sector based on current and future projected climate further support identified priority outcomes. risks. Taking into consideration an understanding Quantitative indicators to measure success tied to these of the past, present and future of these sectors, outcomes per sector will be determined as part of the priority outcomes are determined to serve as implementation process. As indicators are determined, the guiding objectives to ensure sectors are resilient to it will be critical to get the concurrence of implementing climate change. agencies in alignment with their own plans and strategies. Lastly, to ensure that the Philippines can turn theory into action, the NAP outlines high-level actors and implementation timelines for each strategy. Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.1.3. Approach to determining adaptation priorities across sectors 156 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The determination of adaptation outcomes 1. Adaptation outcomes and strategies provide and strategies for the Philippines rests on two guidance on the shared goals of the Philippines fundamental approaches. in relation to climate adaptation and resilience. First, the approach emphasizes the vital role of However, adaptation strategies are crafted at a representative voices within each sector, with the national level and are intended to be tailored to intent to uncover insights from those who possess the specific contexts of regions and localities, an intimate understanding of the prevailing gaps and aligning with localized projected climate impacts. challenges in building climate resilience. The NAP The intent is for regional and local stakeholders development undertook an inclusive, multi-stakeholder to view adaptation strategies in this document approach to ensure voices are presented onto priority as guidance for contextualization. They are adaptation outcomes and consequent strategies. This empowered to choose and customize actions that included dedicated sector-focused ideation sessions, align with the unique circumstances and climate workshops, and expert consultations with in-country conditions of their respective localities, provided sectoral experts to validate key gaps and critical standardized criteria on where customization strategies required to accelerate adaptation efforts decisions can be made. in each sector. Members of national government, 2. The NAP recognizes the critical importance local government, civil society representatives, of integrating sectoral adaptation strategies academe, private sector, and development partners as a cornerstone of effective climate were provided various avenues to engage on resilience planning. Climate change impacts these priorities. are multifaceted and often cut across various sectors such as agriculture, water resources, Second, the approach commits to building on infrastructure, and health. The country now needs the foundations and progress established a holistic, systems-thinking lens that recognizes by various stakeholders, both governmental the complex interplay of climate impacts, and non-governmental, in relation to climate socioeconomic factors, health systems, and resilience. The NAP aims to complement ongoing environmental systems, integrating an approach initiatives, mechanisms, programs, and policies, that harmonizes policies and interventions that with the ultimate intent of driving towards a more address these systems collectively. robust and collective endeavor. While the NAP outlines strategies to amplify ongoing initiatives, Isolated sectoral approaches may lead to unintended an evaluation of these initiatives, mechanisms, consequences and potential maladaptation, where programs, and policies must be made in parallel, efforts in one sector inadvertently undermine progress Adaptation Priorities in consideration of its contributions to in another. Therefore, the NAP emphasizes the need to transformative adaptation. downscale adaptation planning to more localized levels, Moving forward, a few key considerations must be ensuring that communities and regions are equipped to integrated as the NAP is applied to the local setting. address the specific challenges they face. 157 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 To address the risk of maladaptation, a crucial However, implementors also need to be critical step in this downscaling process involves bringing of instances where climate impacts are already together sector-specific adaptation strategies into so severe that no existing adaptation strategies a comprehensive systems model. This systems can completely prevent further loss and damage. approach enables an understanding of how various Efforts to introduce adaptation strategies may continue to adaptation measures interact with one another. lead to loss and damage instead of leading to increased By mapping out these interactions, local authorities can resilience. identify potential feedback loops that can either amplify Emphasizing the recognition of the spectrum between or mitigate the effects of climate change. For example, soft and hard limits to adaptation is not only essential strategies aimed at enhancing agricultural resilience for enhancing the nation’s resilience to climate change might have ripple effects on water resources, ecosystem but also for harnessing co-benefits with climate health, and food security. Understanding these mitigation efforts. connections allows for more informed decision-making and the optimization of adaptation efforts. Lastly, beyond considerations of maladaptation, localized adaptation implementation also needs to consider adaptation limits. In some instances, implementation challenges are “soft” in nature, meaning that effective adaptation measures do exist. Implementation of these measures is hindered by economic, political, and social barriers, such as a lack of technical support and/or sufficient funding.

4.2 Sectoral Priority Outcomes and Adaptation Solutions This sub-chapter outlines the envisioned adaptation theme, outcomes, and strategies tailored to each sector. These adaptation strategies were determined based on a comprehensive understanding of each Adaptation Priorities sector, encompassing current progress and prevailing challenges in building resilience, and equipped with a deep understanding of the projected climate risks attributed to the sector. The following diagram highlights the adaptation themes and common strategies across sectors. 158 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.2.1. Sector-specific adaptation themes and common adaptation strategies Five common strategies are observed across sectors: 1. Strengthen infrastructure resilience. There 2. Safeguard livelihoods with social is a need to reinforce the resilience of critical protection and regulations. With the infrastructure in various sectors to withstand unpredictability and magnitude of projected adverse impacts and disruptions caused by climate events, livelihoods, especially those climate change. From water infrastructure to of vulnerable populations, may be put at risk. production facilities to power plants to roads and This key strategy focuses on actions and seaports, resiliency against climate hazards must mechanisms that safeguard the livelihoods be built to minimize disruption of services. of populations from the impacts of climate change through social safety nets and climate-responsive regulations. 159 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 3. Empower local governments and communities Nature-based solutions is a critical approach to ensure a to take adaptation action. Policy frameworks whole-of-ecosystem mechanism to address adaptation provide the ambition, vision, and direction that the interventions across sector outcomes, anchored Philippines can work as one country. However, on the best available science and indigenous and adaptation and resilience must happen at the local local knowledge, among others. The appropriate and community levels. This key strategy articulates investment directions should establish high the importance of enabling local governments and regard for risk assessments covering safeguards communities to implement adaptation solutions for social impacts, but also to the carrying capacity by mainstreaming an understanding of adaptation of an ecosystem to said interventions, in light of and resilience by providing access to climate data sustainable development. and tools and increasing their capacity to act. It is noted that systems of interest across sectors 4. Mainstream integrated adaptation would generally support the analytics for sustainable governance. Enacting adaptation solutions consumption and production to uplift transformation of will require a multi-stakeholder and the economy as intended in the NAP, the commitments multi-disciplinary approach. It will require facilitating such as the 30x30 under the High Ambition Coalition for common discussions among experts from multiple Nature and People, among other related international sectors and groups with various agendas, commitments, should be addressed and observed particularly those representing the most vulnerable for holistic actions under the NAP. The people-planet- sectors, not limited to, women and children, persons prosperity nexus should be a core governance principle with disabilities (PWD), indigenous peoples, for fit-for-purpose interventions of adaptation and senior citizens. This strategy articulates the needs and opportunities on one hand, and overall importance of fostering a coordinated collaboration climate action (e.g., with mitigation co-benefits), among stakeholders, policymakers, and institutions on the other. across horizontal and vertical chains of command. 5. Scale nature-based solutions. Given the The detailed climate impacts and adaptation strategies richness of natural assets in the Philippines, this for each sector can be found in the following sub-sections strategy articulates the importance of prioritizing in this chapter including: the use of nature-based solutions, where possible, • Overview of the sector to drive climate resilience and protect vulnerable • Climate change impacts to the sector populations. Today, the popular solution to build • Priority adaptation outcomes for the sector adaptation and resilience is to invest in grey • Priority adaptation strategies for the sector Adaptation Priorities infrastructure, such as sea walls that often have detrimental offsets to populations in the area (i.e., maladaptation). This is especially important given the co-benefits with climate mitigation. 160 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

4.2.1 Approach to Determining Adaptation Priorities Overview of Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security in the Philippines Crops, livestock, fish farms, and fisheries in the Philippines serve as a cornerstone of the country’s economy and ensure food security for the population. Economically, the sector contributes 8.9% of the nation’s GDP (2022)216, which translates to PhP1.7 billion. While the Philippines is involved in a wide array of agricultural practices, its The agriculture and fisheries and food security production is predominantly focused on the cultivation sector faces key challenges across resource bases, of crops (51.9%), rearing of livestock (10.3%), labor, capital, productivity, and policy among other poultry (10.5%), and fishery-related activities (12.1%) factors that have led to its relatively slow growth as of the second quarter of 2023. Agricultural land compared to other major economic sectors in the makes up more than 40% of the nation’s land area, Philippines, as well as prevailing food insecurity underscoring the significance of this sector. across the nation. The average Philippine farm was just From a social perspective, this is a critical source 1.29 hectares in 2012219, severely limiting productivity of Filipinos’ food supply and livelihood. The four (4) gains from economies of scale. This was partly driven staple foods in the average Filipino diet are cereals by the growing rural Filipino demographic, but also (40.2%), vegetables (15.5%), fish (11.2%), and policies such as the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform meat (10.8%)217—of this, 75% of food consumed was Program, which broke up larger farmlands, reducing produced domestically in 2021218, with all the local the average farm size by a third220, in turn decreasing produce of certain key crops, such as rice, being national agricultural productivity by 17%. Resource consumed within the country. Agriculture also serves bases have also been poorly managed, with farmers as the source of income for a substantial portion of facing issues in accessing enough water, while 70% of the population, with almost a quarter of Filipinos being Philippine grounds are overfished, impacting fisherfolks’ employed in the agricultural sector. productivity. This decrease in agricultural productivity, among other contributing factors, has led to moderate to severe food insecurity observed across three out of every Adaptation Priorities 10 Filipino households221. 216 Philippine Statistics Authority (2023). National Accounts of the Philippines (as of April 2023) 217 Department of Science and Technology - Food and Nutrition Research Institute (DOST-FNRI). 2022. Philippine Nutrition Facts and Figures: 2018-2019 Expanded National Nutrition Survey (ENNS): Food Consumption Survey. FNRI Bldg., DOST Compound, Gen. Santos Avenue, Bicutan, Taguig City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 218 Philippine Statistics Authority. (2022). Food Balance Sheets of the Philippines, 2019-2021. 219 Briones, R.M., (2021). Philippine agriculture: Current state, challenges, and ways forward. Philippine Institute for Development Studies 220 Adamopoulos, T. and D. Restuccia. 2020. Land reform and productivity: A quantitative analysis with micro data. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2020 12(3):1–39. 221 Department of Science and Technology - Food and Nutrition Research Institute (DOST-FNRI). 2022. Philippine Nutrition Facts and Figures: 2018-2019 Expanded National Nutrition Survey (ENNS): Food Consumption Survey. FNRI Bldg., DOST Compound, Gen. Santos Avenue, Bicutan, Taguig City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 161 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Adding to the issues, farmers and fisherfolk face These impacts are exacerbated in the Philippines, which challenges in gaining access to the market. This is seen experiences one of the highest disaster risk levels in physically, with the need for more storage facilities and the world. For example, over 7.4 million hectares of transportation infrastructure to facilitate the delivery of Philippine agricultural area were affected by typhoons, goods to consumers. However, it also manifests in other floods, and droughts from 2000 to 2010, leading to over ways—most farmers and fisherfolk are smallholders, PHP100 billion in damages.224 and the cascading of best practices, reasonable In fisheries, it was found that 94% Filipino fisherfolk prices, and othwer aspects of selling their goods must within the Davao Gulf had experienced decreases in be strengthened, to minimize their market cost their catch225, a phenomenon observed to be driven by and raise their income. These issues have pushed climate change. Additionally, global models project a farmers and fisherfolk into extreme poverty. decline of 9% to 24% in potential marine fisheries across According to the PSA 2021 Poverty Statistics the Philippines by 2050. Exacerbating these issues is Among the Basic Sector 222, farmers and fisherfolks the high poverty incidence rate and the proximity to residing in rural areas have the highest poverty incidence the coastline in the case of fisherfolk, compounding rates with 30% and 30.6%, respectively. Both sectors the vulnerabilities faced by Filipinos who depend on also received the highest poverty incidence for 2015 agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries as their source and 2018. of livelihood—poor access to resources amongst impoverished communities have been shown to lead to Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and conflicts within and across communities, with incidences Fisheries and Food Security of looting, ransacking, and bloodshed having been Agriculture and Fisheries, and Food Security is recorded in the past.226 historically one of the most vulnerable sectors to Worsening climate trends will severely impact the climate change. Despite technological advancements agriculture and fisheries and food security sector if in recent decades, the productivity of farms and fisheries no action is taken. For example, typhoons with higher is still heavily dependent on weather and climate. peak wind speeds will damage farmland and fishery The projected increases in temperatures, changes in infrastructure, while degrading produce. Increasing rainfall patterns, increases in severity and frequency temperatures are also expected to lead to reduced of extreme weather and climate events and their crop yield, degraded livestock health, and decreasing associated impacts on water availability, and pest and potential fish catch. The table below highlights the disease outbreaks will substantially affect agricultural adverse impact of other CIDs in this sector. production. This has been observed globally with Adaptation Priorities climate change causing USD280 billion (4%) in losses of crop and livestock production from 2008 to 2018223. 222 Philippine Statistics Authority. (2021). 2021 Full Year Official Poverty Statistics Among The Basic Sector in the Philippines 223 FAO (2021), The Impact of Disasters and Crises on Agriculture and Food Security 2021, FAO, Rome, http://www.fao.org/3/ cb3673en/cb3673en.pdf. 224 Briones, R.M., Israel, D.C. (2012). Impacts of Natural Disasters on Agriculture, Food Security, and Natural Resources and Environment in the Philippines. PIDS Discussion Paper Series 225 Macusi ED, Camaso KL, Barboza A and Macusi ES (2021) Perceived Vulnerability and Climate Change Impacts on Small-Scale Fisheries in Davao Gulf, Philippines. Front. Mar. Sci. 8:597385. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2021.597385 226 Montaño, T. & Gonzales, A. (2018). Human Insecurity and Conflict: Effect of Coastal Communities’ Vulnerability to Climate Change. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development. 9. 187-191. 10.18178/ijesd.2018.9.7.1098. 162 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 4.2.1.1. Impacts of climate hazards on Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security Climate Impact-Driver Impacts to agriculture and fisheries and food security sector Increased temperature Heat stress affects availability of crops, livestock, and fish and drought Increased temperature reduces the yield of rice and other crops, driven by heat stress, shortened growing periods, and other factors. Livestock also experiences heat stress, degrading health and productivity. Farmed fish, fisheries, and seaweed yield are projected to decrease, with longer fish culture periods and increased fish mortality contributing to this. Increased incidence of pests and diseases Increased temperature has been observed to increase the incidence of pests and diseases. Water stress across crops and livestock Drought leads to water stress across crops and livestock potentially leading to reduced yield, productivity, and quality. Droughts have also led to farmers not planting, leading to disrupted cropping schedules. Soil degradation Lack of soil moisture leads to reduced nutrient content, hindering nutrient absorption and thus reducing crop yield and health. Decreased productivity amongst farmers and fisherfolk Increased temperature may lead to heat-related illnesses, reduced productivity, and mental health impacts for farmers and fisherfolk. Reduced fish stocks Rising sea water temperature can lead to coral bleaching, decreased biodiversity, and disruption in the food chain. This translates to reduced catches of reef fish, which can impact available fish supply and associated economic activities Sea level rise and Saltwater intrusion in farmland extreme sea levels Sea level rise may lead to salinity intrusion into farmland and fishponds, Adaptation Priorities resulting to substantial water shortages for irrigation in countries with extensive coastline and river deltas. As an archipelago with similar geographical features, the Philippines is at risk of finding itself in a similar situation. Inundated farmland Rising sea levels also threaten to inundate farmlands, leading to loss of crop productivity and livelihoods of farmers impacted. Storm surges damaging fishing infrastructure Storm surges may cause damage across fishing infrastructure situated along the coast, such as piers, docks, boats, and equipment. Reduced fish stock Rising sea levels may lead to the loss of mangroves, reducing spawning and nursery grounds for many fishes, which can impact fish supply and associated economic activities. 163 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Extreme precipitation Flood damaging soil, crop, and fish health Extreme precipitation leads to floods, which have a myriad of impacts on agriculture. Topsoil can be eroded, reducing soil fertility, and thus crop yields and crops can be physically impacted, leading to dislodging, bruising, etc. Post-harvest inability to dry wet crops leads to post-harvest losses. This causes increases in the cost of farming, which may lead to forest degradation as compensation for reduced farmland productivity. For aquaculture, flooding damages infrastructure and may lead to income loss from escaped stocks or the invasion of unwanted species in aquaculture farms. Prolonged rainfall also leads to hypoxia (depletion of dissolved oxygen), resulting in fish kills. Waterlogging Excessive rainfall causes waterlogging, poor aeration and hindered nutrient absorption. Prolonged moisture may also lead to diseases and fungal infections impacting crop yield. Waterlogging in surrounding forest ecosystems may also lead to habitat degradation, causing the spread of pests and vectors of diseases. Wind patterns and Crop, land, and infrastructure damage tropical cyclones Wind patterns and tropical cyclones risk uprooting and destroying crops, hence reducing yield. Additionally, infrastructure such as roads and storage facilities can be damaged, impacting the agricultural supply chain and the Philippines’ food security. Soil erosion of farmland Wind patterns and tropical cyclones lead to soil erosion, removing essential nutrients and fertilizer for crop growth and health —this leads to reduced crop yields and harvests. Reduced fishing days Cyclones prevent fishers from going to sea to fish, resulting in lessened productive days and decreased income, further increasing Adaptation Priorities their vulnerability. Amidst the various climatic impact-drivers, pluvial flooding and extreme sea levels are expected to impact farms and fishponds the most, respectively. Across the decade of 2030-2040, 7.5% of agricultural land is projected to be exposed to pluvial floods, with this exposure potentially increasing further to 8.5% in the years between 2050-60. Pluvial floods are projected to be particularly significant in regions II, IV-A, V, VI, and VIII, where over a third of the exposed farmland will be located. 164 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 4.2.1.1 Exposed farmland due to pluvial flooding from 2030-40, 2050-60, SSP5-8.5 Due to their proximity to the coast, fishponds are projected to face the highest exposure to extreme sea levels—between 2030 to 2040, 15% of fishponds are expected to be exposed to extreme sea levels, with 80% of the exposure occurring within Regions I, III, and IV-A, V, and VI. Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.2.1.2 Exposed fishponds due to extreme sea levels from 2030-40, 2050-60, SSP 5-8.5 Furthermore, when considering rice and corn A notable point is that across these indicators, Region yields, two crucial crops for both production IV-A, V, and the province of Camarines Sur standout and consumption in the Philippines, there is a as highly impacted localities on the absolute scale. The projected decline in yield of 6% for rice and 19% impacts of various CIDs on this sector are highlighted in for corn by 2030. Provinces with the largest decrease the table below. in rice production are Camarines Sur, Nueva Ecija, and Masbate. For corn, Isabela, Camarines Sur, and Cotabato make up the three provinces with the highest drop in production. 165 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table X. Climate Analytics Model Projections on Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security indicators227 Impacts to agriculture and fisheries and food security sector Climate Impact-Driver 2030 Decade Impact 2050 Decade Impact Sea level rise 70 km2 (3%) fishponds inundated 85 km2 (3.5%) fishponds inundated Cyclones 6.5K km2 (5%) farmland exposed 7.5K km2 (6%) farmland exposed 135 km2 (5.5%) fishpond exposed 145 km2 (6%) fishpond exposed Pluvial flooding 10K km2 (7.5%) farmland exposed 11K km2 (8.5%) farmland exposed 70 km2 (3%) fishpond exposed 85 km2 (3.5%) fishpond exposed Extreme sea levels 360 km2 (15%) fishpond exposed 370 km2 (15%) fishpond exposed Fluvial flooding 25 km2 (~1%) fishpond exposed 38 km2 (1.5%) fishpond exposed Crop productivity Corn yield of 2.48 tonnes/ha Corn yield of 2.54 tonnes/ha (-19% compared to 2020 yield) (-18% compared to 2020 levels) Rice yield of 3.63 tonnes/ha Rice yield of 3.67 tonnes/ha (-6% compared to 2020 yield) (-5% compared to 2020 yield) Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security Grounded on national policies and existing programs related to this sector228, the adaptation theme for Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security is Securing Food Supply: Nurture Nature, Sustain Livelihoods. Three priority outcomes underpin this strategy: 1. Productive and resilient agriculture and 2. Natural resources critical for agriculture, Adaptation Priorities fisheries achieved. This outcome focuses on the aquaculture, and fisheries are conserved. employment of best practices and technology to This outcome focuses on the development achieve optimal productivity of crops, livestock, and implementation of a comprehensive set and poultry farms, fishponds, and fisheries in of monitoring, evaluation, and management anticipation of the effects of climate change programs and procedures to ensure the long-term and evolving consumption profiles, emphasizing (6+ years) viability of natural resources needed to food self-sufficiency. To achieve this outcome, sustain farms, fishponds, and fisheries. For this more resilient farming practices must be adopted, outcome, agricultural and aquacultural practices supported by improved infrastructure and that enable the conservation of natural resources training programs. and leverage organic methodologies must be encouraged across all levels, from farms to local government units to national agencies. 227 Pluvial, fluvial, and extreme sea level-driven floods are modelled on a 10-year return period, represented by floods heights with a 10% chance of occurring in a year 228 Refer to Appendix 3 – Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 166 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 3. Farmers and fisherfolk’s food and income Prioritizing adaptation strategies that empower farmers are secured amidst climate change. This and fisherfolk to improve their productivity, while at outcome focuses on implementing adaptive the same time preserving the natural resources they strategies to safeguard workers and operations depend upon for the continuity of production, is key to (e.g., supply chains) from the impacts of climate- ensuring the maintenance of domestic food production related hazards. To achieve this outcome, support that most Filipinos depend upon. Well-enforced zoning mechanisms for farmers and fisherfolk must be and land protection policies, financial support systems put in place across the value chain, from credit and training programs, and accessible, localized and financing to market linkages. climate data are all critical components to improve the security across agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries in the Philippines. Priority Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture and Fisheries and Food Security Outcome 1: Productive and resilient agriculture and fisheries achieved. Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: Adaptation Priorities DA DENR, DOST, DILG, PSA, DTI, TESDA, DOST Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Diversify and substitute Diversification/rotation of crops, Immediate Low crops, livestock, livestock, or aquaculture tested to (0-3 years) aquaculture ensure local adaptability, to de-risk specie-specific impact arising from climate change, building upon DA Climate Resilient Agriculture Office (CRAO) programs such as the Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture (AMIA) program. 167 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Expand cold storage chains Efficient storage infrastructure that Immediate High and facilities reduces post-harvest losses and (0-3 years) extends the shelf life of perishable produce in case of climate change disrupting supply routes, potentially supported by partnerships with organizations such as the Cold Chain Association of the Philippines (CCAP). Improve and ensure Improvements in hatcheries, Immediate High gender-responsive aquaculture grow-out ponds, and other (0-3 years) infrastructure culture systems that are more inclusive and resilient to extreme weather events, such as aqua shading technology. Improve feed varieties Improvements in livestock and Immediate Medium aquaculture feed varieties (0-3 years) that are more cost-effective and sustainable. Drive adoption of urban farming Cultivating crops and raising Immediate Low livestock in urban areas for local (0-3 years) food production, supporting the enactment of the Urban Agriculture Law. Develop and hold technical Training programs to ensure Immediate Medium training programs for farmers farmers and fisherfolk can (0-3 years) Adaptation Priorities and fisherfolk implement the identified solutions, through channels such as Climate- Resiliency Field Schools (CFS). Continue researching and After testing to ensure their Long-term High establishing crossbred/ adaptability, providing farmers with (6+ years) genetically improved species access to genetically enhanced, climate-adaptive, and high-yielding crop, livestock, and aquaculture varieties, capitalizing on strains identified by Corn Germplasm Utilization through Advanced Research and Development, PhilRice, and private biotech firms 168 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 2: Natural resources critical for agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries conserved Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DA DENR, DOST, DILG, DHSUD, Higher Academic Institutions Indicative Key Brief Description Implementation Capital- Strategies Priority Intensiveness Improve soil health Improvement of soil testing and Immediate Medium management programs application of corresponding soil (0-3 years) amelioration measures to respond against diminished soil health from climate change, building upon DA-BSWM’s National Soil Health Program (NSHP) Improve and expand Implementation of pest control Immediate High integrated pest strategies amidst potential infestations (0-3 years) management programs that may arise due to climate change that minimize pesticide use and incorporate natural predators and biological controls, expanding and improving on programs such as Pest Risk Identification and Management Efficiency (PRIME) and the Program for Bantay-Peste Brigade and Management (PBBM) Promote adoption Promotion of drip irrigation, alternate Immediate Medium of efficient irrigation wetting and drying (AWD), and other (0-3 years) techniques efficient irrigation methods that Adaptation Priorities reduce water wastage, building on initiatives such as Water Efficient and Risk Mitigation Technologies (WateRice), Water Balance-Assisted Irrigation Decision Support System (WAISS), aligned with the National Irrigation Masterplan 2020-2030 Improve dissemination Utilization of technology and Immediate High of precision agriculture data analysis to optimize farming (0-3 years) and aquaculture practices, minimizing waste and resource use while maximizing crop yield and sustainability, leveraging facilities such as the Precision and Digital Agriculture Center 169 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Encourage sustainable farming Sustainable management and Immediate High and fisheries management conservation of agricultural and (0-3 years) fishery resources that preserves health of terrestrial and marine ecosystems at the same time Conduct sustainable and Research on sustainable Long-term High gender-responsive agriculture, farming practices, such as soil (6+ years) aquaculture, and fisheries R&D conservation, water-efficient irrigation, climate-resilient crop varieties, circular farming and aquaculture, and integrated mangrove aquaculture systems, both new and building on existing programs such as PhilRice - Community-Based Participatory Action Research on Climate (CPAR), as well as farmer-led research Outcome 3: Farmers’ and fisherfolk’s livelihoods secured amidst climate change Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: Adaptation Priorities DA DENR, DOST, DILG, DHSUD, Higher Academic Institutions Indicative Key Brief Description Implementation Capital- Strategies Priority Intensiveness Expand and support Operationalization of adaptation- Immediate Medium farmer and fisherfolk focused programs for the protection (0-3 years) cooperatives of labor rights and facilitation of and networks with knowledge sharing, collective encouragement to decision-making, and access women’s representation to resources, including but not and participation limited to agrarian credit programs, technologies, and markets expanding on initiatives such as Climate- Resiliency Field Schools (CFS) 170 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Develop localized and inclusive Developing localized and inclusive Immediate Low early warning systems & info early warning systems and (0-3 years) dissemination communication channels that consider regional climate patterns, crop- and fish-specific risks such as “ISDApp: The App for the Fishing Community” co-developed by Globe, iNON IT Solutions, NFRDI and BFAR, and larger scale programs such as Smarter Approaches to Reinvigorate Agriculture as an Industry (SARAI). Improve climate insurance and Insurance against extreme Immediate High ensure its inclusiveness weather events is made affordable (0-3 years) through methods such as government subsidization to allow farmers and fishers to maintain business continuity despite such events, e.g., Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, as well as new financing models such as private financing. Train small holder farmers and Promotion of climate resilient Immediate Medium fisherfolk; promote agricultural agriculture practices, training (0-3 years) best practices on sustainable water and soil management, reinforcing programs such as S&T Community-based Program for Inclusive Development (STC4ID) or Climate-Resiliency Field Schools (CFS), while also Adaptation Priorities disseminating best practices for occupational safety and maintenance of health amidst climate change for farmers and fisherfolk. Conduct climate risk Conduct risk, vulnerability, and Immediate Medium vulnerability assessments suitability assessment of crop (0-3 years) (CRVA) and fishery commodities and communities to climate change for planning and monitoring purposes at various levels and scales using developed tools, e.g., CRVA, eVSA, and FishVool. 171 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Establish and facilitate market Facilitate access to downstream Immediate High linkages for small holder market actors for smallholder (0-3 years) farmers and fisherfolk farmers and fisherfolk through mechanisms such as contract farming and farm and fish markets, enabling more value capture and leading to strengthened resiliency amongst smallholder farmers and fisherfolk. Improve the provision of Provide accessible, affordable Immediate High smallholder credit and and equitable financial support (0-3 years) financing programs to empower smallholder farmers and fisherfolk to adopt adaptive and resilient practices and technologies, building on programs such as the Agricultural Credit Support Project, Agrarian Production Credit Program, or the Sikat Saka Program, as well as various agricultural financing programs provided by the Agricultural Credit Policy Council (ACPC) such as the Kapital Access for Young Agripreneurs (KAYA) Loan Program; Agri-Negosyo (ANYO) Loan Program; and Expanded SURE Aid and Recovery Project (SURE COVID-19) for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Adaptation Priorities

4.2.2 Water resources Overview of Water Resources in the Philippines The security of Water Resources is a top priority As such, access to safe and clean water is considered for the Philippines, evident from its inclusion in the fundamental for human health and well-being, Philippine Development Plan (2023-2028) and the and well-planned water infrastructure is a key enabler National Climate Change Action Plan (2011-2028). to achieving this. The sector is deeply intertwined with industries, health, agriculture, and ecosystems. From an economic standpoint, water is a key input that fuels economic growth across the agriculture and industry sectors. These two sectors make up over 90% of the country’s water consumption profile. Water is a necessary resource for drinking, sanitation, and hygiene practices. 172 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The Philippines faces a myriad of challenges that Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources hinder the provision of safe and affordable water The current state of Philippine water supply and across its localities. While a study done in 2001 found quality, and its water infrastructure network, make that the Philippines had 1,907m3 of water available per the nation’s water resources particularly vulnerable capita per year, the rapid population growth that the to climate change. The Philippines faces varied rainfall nation has undergone will have pushed that number patterns across geographies and seasons—according to down to an annual amount of 1,333m3 per capita, well the Philippine Water Supply and Sanitation Master Plan, below the threshold for water stress of 1,700m3 per NCR, CALABARZON, and Region VII face absolute capita (see Figure 4.2.2.1). water scarcity. This variation in water security can be remedied with a well-developed infrastructure network of water storage, distribution, sanitation, and consumption systems, lacking in the current Philippine water system. For example, as of 2015231, over 12% of Filipinos relied on water sources classified as unsafe, such as undeveloped wells, lakes, or rivers, while over a quarter of the population did not have access to safely managed sanitation. Additionally, aging, and outdated infrastructure, such as most of irrigation systems in the Philippines, are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts. Open Figure 4.2.2.1. Water availability per capita, 2001-2021 irrigation ditches or canals, which are most used today, These challenges manifest themselves institutionally are susceptible to leakage while open canals are at risk as well. There are over 30 water-related agencies of reduced capacities stemming from sedimentation— without clear boundaries of ownership, leading to weak the Philippine Development Plan (2023-2028) estimates institutional execution. Additionally, there is a lack of data that proper water management in farms could lead and monitoring programs for water resources to provide to 25% reduction in consumption, which equals to agencies and organizations with the proper information approximately 22% of the total water consumption profile to guide decisions229. Finally, inadequate inventory, in the Philippines. planning, management, and financing of the Philippines’ More extreme climate conditions and events are water infrastructure network, hinders its expansion, projected to exacerbate the highlighted issues Adaptation Priorities rehabilitation, and maintenance. amongst Philippine water resources. Drier dry All these challenges are to be addressed by the seasons are likely to worsen the conditions across establishment of the Water Resources Management localities already experiencing symptoms of water stress. Office (WRMO) of the Department of Environment and On the other hand, wetter wet seasons and more intense Natural Resources in April 2023230. The Office aims to cyclones damage may damage water infrastructure—for ensure efficient water management at all levels and example, in 2009, Typhoon Ketsana’s impact on water maximize utilization of the nation’s water resources. infrastructure led to a 92% decrease in water supply capacity. The table below highlights the negatives of other CIDs on Water Resources. 229 National Economic Development Authority. (2023). Philippine Development Plan (2023-2028) 230 Pursuant to Executive Oder No. 22 s. 2023 231 National Economic and Development Authority. (2021). Philippine Water Supply and Sanitation Master Plan 173 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 4.2.2.1. Impacts of climate hazards on Water Resources Climate Impact-Driver Impacts on the water resources sector Increased temperature Algal blooms impacting water quality and Drought Higher temperatures enhance nutrient cycling and availability in water bodies, providing favorable conditions for algal growth. Warmer temperatures accelerate algal metabolism, leading to increased growth rates and proliferation of certain algal species, decreased water clarity from oxygen depletion and toxin production, and proliferation of pathogenic bacteria, potentially impacting the freshwater aquaculture and water distribution industry. Decreased water supply Increased temperature can lead to the drying up of water sources in the Philippines, resulting from changes in precipitation patterns, evaporation rates, and soil moisture levels. Rising temperatures contribute to higher evaporation rates, causing water bodies, such as rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, to lose water more rapidly. The reduced water availability can have adverse effects on various sectors. Additionally, prolonged droughts can deplete groundwater reserves, further exacerbating water scarcity. Higher temperatures associated with drought intensify evaporation rates, leading to additional water loss. Increased concentration of water pollutants Reduced water flow during drought can result in the accumulation of pollutants, such as sediments, nutrients, and contaminants. Drought conditions can lead to increased water salinity and changes in pH levels, impacting water quality parameters, and potentially impacting a wide range of industries such as freshwater aquaculture, agriculture, tourism, and water distribution players. Adaptation Priorities Sea level rise and Saltwater intrusion extreme sea levels Rising sea levels push saltwater inland, contaminating freshwater sources such as rivers, estuaries, and groundwater. Contaminated freshwater becomes unsuitable for drinking, irrigation, and other essential uses, leading to a scarcity of safe water supply. Damaged water infrastructure Sea level rise renders coastal water infrastructure, such as pumping stations, treatment plants, and distribution networks, more vulnerable to storm surges and coastal erosion. Increased exposure to saltwater can accelerate infrastructure deterioration and increase the risk of failures. 174 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Extreme precipitation Contamination of the water supply due to flooding Heavy rainfall can cause excessive surface runoff or overflowing of water bodies, resulting in the inundation of water sources and water treatment facilities. This can lead to the contamination of water supplies with pollutants, sediments, and pathogens. Floodwater can also pick up chemicals, waste, and debris, further contributing to water contamination, potentially impacting various industries, such as freshwater aquaculture, agriculture, tourism, and water distribution players. Damaged water infrastructure Water infrastructure, such as pipelines, pumping stations, wastewater treatment facilities, and water storage facilities, can sustain damage during extreme precipitation events. Flood and rain-induced landslides resulting from extreme precipitation have the potential to physically destroy infrastructure, interfere with water distribution systems, and cause service interruptions. Wind patterns and Damaged water infrastructure tropical cyclones Wind patterns and tropical cyclones can cause physical damage to water infrastructure, including pipelines, pumping stations, treatment plants, and storage facilities. This damage disrupts the water supply and distribution systems, resulting in service interruptions. Contaminated water supply Cyclones and strong winds contribute to water source contamination. Heavy rainfall associated with typhoons causes runoff, carrying pollutants into rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Contaminants include sediment, chemicals, and pathogens, rendering water unsafe for consumption, potentially impacting various industries, such as freshwater aquaculture, agriculture, tourism, and water distribution players. Adaptation Priorities More intense drought or lack of rainfall potentially Already facing a combination of an absolute scarcity reduces water supply in certain localities.232 level of water availability per capita (397 m3/capita/year) Precipitation models in Chapter 3.3 projected a and more than a third of its population without access to reduction in total precipitation across northeastern a safe water source233, the implication here is the need Luzon and south Mindanao. This scarcity is particularly for more resilient water infrastructure to be built here to pronounced in regions such as Region VII, which is ensure its communities’ secure, safe, and sustainable expected to receive over 400 mm less rainfall per access to water resources. year in the decade of 2030 compared to 1991 to 2020. 232 Quantitative climate impacts outlined in this chapter are projected based on climate models developed as part of the National Adaptation Plan process. Detailed methodology for climate models per sector can be viewed on Appendix 2 and Appendix 3 – Water Resources 233 National Economic and Development Authority. (2021). Philippine Water Supply and Sanitation Master Plan 175 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Additionally, pluvial flooding and cyclones are The direct damages caused by these climate hazards expected to damage water infrastructure across is expected to stand at over PHP11 billion annually the nation. Across the decade of 2030 to 2040, from 2030 to 2040, with more than half of the damage almost 10% of water infrastructure, composed of water generated within Regions III and IV-A. These exposures tanks and towers, dams, and treatment plants, is are projected to remain relatively constant in the decade projected to be exposed to pluvial floods and cyclones. of 2050-60, largely driven by increased pluvial flooding and decreased cyclone frequency. Figure 4.2.2.2 Water tanks and towers exposed to cyclones, 2030-40, 2050-60, SSP 5-8.5 Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.2.2.3 Water tanks and towers exposed to pluvial flooding, 2030-40, 2050-60, SSP 5-8.5 176 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Outcomes 3. Watersheds and surrounding ecosystems for Water Resources are protected and properly managed. This Grounded on national policies and existing programs outcome focuses on the efforts on active planning related to this sector 234, the adaptation theme for Water and management of Philippine watersheds Resources is Safeguard Water Security: Secure and and surrounding ecosystems to ensure their Sanitary Water for All. capacity to serve as a reliable water source. To achieve this, an understanding of the current state of watersheds must be attained, followed Three priority outcomes underpin this strategy: by well-enforced policies and programs related 1. Water and sanitation infrastructure are to land use planning and forest, agriculture, and inclusive and resilient. This outcome focuses on urban development to ensure the longevity of building resiliency within new and existing water these water sources. Additionally, it is essential to infrastructure aligned with comprehensive, updated engage representatives from different sectors in a structural standards and integrated planning. To structured and inclusive manner when consulting attain this outcome, a proper inventory of existing on these policies and programs. infrastructure will be required, supported by a Prioritizing adaptation strategies that ensure resilient robust governance and implementation process to water infrastructure, which enables the provision of drive the implementation of strategies. safe, affordable, and secure water will help ensure 2. Water supply, water quality, and water-related individuals’ health and sanitation amidst climate change, services are protected from shifts in weather while providing key industries with the water needed to patterns. This outcome focuses on augmenting operate sustainably. A governance structure with clear existing water supply with additional conventional roles and ownership, operating in line with an updated and alternative sources where climate change Water Code is needed to oversee initiatives such as is projected to affect the water balance, while inventory and profiling programs to set a baseline when managing demand and quality standards. Due making decisions on future programs to implement, as consideration will be given to future trends well as to mobilize sufficient funding to execute, whether in the distribution, frequency, and intensity of from the government, private, or multilateral sources. hydrometeorological events compared to historical trends. For this outcome, the private sector should be involved, where possible, and the mobilization of financing to continue programs aspiring to Adaptation Priorities provide safe and sustainable water to communities should be implemented, incorporating learnings from initial rollouts. 234 Refer to Appendix 3 – Water Resources to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 177 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Water Resources Outcome 1: Water and sanitation infrastructure are inclusive and resilient. Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DENR DPWH, DOST, DND, DILG DENR-NWRB, DAR, NCIP, DA Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Implement Early Implementing tool to predict potential Immediate Low Warning Systems for issues such as water shortages/ (0-3 years) water infrastructure contamination/ infrastructure damage due to climate change prior to major consequences—build upon existing programs such as PAGASA advisory to LGUs & NGAs on water allocation and safety on a river basin/watershed level. Reassess water Reviewing and updating water Medium-term Medium infrastructure building infrastructure building codes based on (3-6 years) codes forecasted local climate hazard impact and ensure its gender-responsiveness. Improve resiliency Retrofitting and upgrading to achieve Medium-term High of existing water piped, treated, utility-managed (3-6 years) infrastructure surface water systems with interventions such as filters ensure protection of water infrastructure— geographical expansion of practices such as MMDA’s operation and Adaptation Priorities maintenance of various flood control structures, facilities, equipment, dams, and waterways, DPWH’s Rehabilitation of Septage & Sewerage systems program. Implement zoning and Implementing zoning regulations Medium-term High land use and other and land use planning measures (3-6 years) regulatory policies that consider climate risks along with such as dam releases conservation of biodiversity, soil, to reduce risk to water, and other ecosystem services. water infrastructure and surrounding communities 178 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 2: Water supply, water quality, and water-related services are protected from shifts in weather patterns. Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DENR DPWH, DILG, DOH, DOST-PAGASA, MWSS, DENR-NWRB Indicative Key Brief Description Implementation Capital- Strategies Priority Intensiveness Conduct a Carry out a multi-stakeholder climate Immediate Low comprehensive climate risk assessment, prioritizing climate (0-3 years) risk assessment for water, risks to climate-resilient WASH sanitation, and hygiene services, resulting in an Action Plan (WASH) based on key for climate-resilient WASH services, hazards, exposures, and and considering the outcomes vulnerabilities affecting related to key strategies referred to the sector. in the NAP. Note that this assessment is a requirement to access the Green Climate Fund (GCF), as endorsed in the GCF Water Project Design Guidelines. Ramp up rainwater Ramp up utilization programs of Immediate High harvesting programs rainwater as an alternative water (0-3 years) source to ensure continued access to water supply amidst climate change and ensure gender-sensitive facilities, such as DPWH’s installation of Adaptation Priorities Rainwater harvesting system (RWHS). Expand wastewater Expand on the improvement of water Immediate High treatment facilities quality and reusing of wastewater as (0-3 years) an alternative water source to ensure continued access to water supply amidst climate change. 179 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Install and expand Install water storage tanks, water Immediate High strategic water supply impounding facilities, small farm (0-3 years) mechanisms for remote reservoirs, and cisterns in strategic areas locations where conventional water supply is unavailable, such as mountainous/upland areas, to ensure continued access to water supply amidst climate change, building upon programs such as the Sagana at Ligtas na Tubig para sa Lahat (SALINTUBIG) program, or supporting transition of water providers to grid-tied systems. Augment public water Mobilize investments to expand Immediate High supply and quality water storage facilities (e.g., dams, (0-3 years) infrastructure reservoirs, water tanks, water towers) as well as treatment and distribution systems (e.g., sewers, treatment plants) to ensure continued access to water supply amidst climate change for the public. Review, develop, and Develop and update existing Immediate High update water pollution regulations that require industries, (0-3 years) control regulations agriculture, aquaculture, and other potential polluters and non-point sources of pollution to adopt pollution control measures such as limits on pollutant discharges, wastewater treatment requirements, environmental users fee system, etc. Adaptation Priorities Review and update Review and update regulatory Immediate Medium water quality standards frameworks that define the (0-3 years) and guidelines acceptable levels of various pollutants and contaminants in water bodies, in anticipation of future climate trends and their impact on the physical and chemical properties of our water bodies, building on initiatives such as Water Quality Management Areas (WQMA), should facilitate the adoption of innovative strategies for adaptation and mitigation in the implementation of clean water regulations. 180 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Run training programs on Training/education sessions ranging Immediate Medium water management and from water management programs (0-3 years) conservation techniques for farmers, industrial and energy players to conservation programs for households to build resiliency amongst water consumers. Establish water Implementation of market-based Medium-term Medium markets and tariffs mechanisms and pricing structures (3-6 years) control regulations to promote efficient water use and incentivize conservation, such as consequences for unregulated groundwater extraction, informed by information from programs such as NWRB’s Water Resources Supply and Demand Assessment. Outcome 3: Watersheds and surrounding ecosystems are protected and properly managed. Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DENR DILG, NCIP, DA, DOST, National Power Corporation Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Enhance integrated Development of integrated Immediate Medium watershed management management plans for all watersheds (0-3 years) and used as the integrated framework for comprehensive land use planning and development of sectoral Adaptation Priorities development plans of LGUs to ensure watershed resiliency amidst climate change. Establish Vegetated buffer zones along water Immediate High riparian buffers bodies that protect water quality (0-3 years) from contamination stemming from climate change. 181 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Perform profiling of Identifying and assessing all Immediate High critical water source watersheds and river basins for (0-3 years) proper monitoring and evaluation, and management, across both surface water such as NWRB’s Comprehensive Water Resource Assessments (CWRA) for Major River Basins (MRB), and DENR-MGB’s Groundwater Resource and Vulnerability Assessment, and nuclear analytical techniques and stable isotopes profiling of the DOST PNRI. Regulate development Implementing rules and regulations Medium-term Medium activity impacting to manage development in areas that (3-6 years) watersheds might impact watersheds to ensure the preservation of their adaptive potential. Regulate inappropriate Restrict inappropriate development Medium-term Medium d e v e l o p m e n t s in flood-prone areas, ensuring (3-6 years) in floodplains floodplains are properly utilized, and their resiliency is maximized.

4.2.3 Health Overview of Health in the Philippines From a social standpoint, investments in health are investments in the protection of our most vulnerable Health is fundamental to the transformation and marginalized populations. Ensuring that populations goals of AmBisyon Natin 2040 and underpins the have access to consistent and quality healthcare Philippines’ socioeconomic agenda. The country services promotes social equity and reduces disparities envisions Filipinos across the country to enjoy longer in health outcomes. Moreover, a resilient health sector Adaptation Priorities and healthier lives and be provided undisrupted access displays a strong ability to address social determinants and financial protection to quality health services. of health, such as economic stability, education, From an economic perspective, resilience in the health and social and community context. sector acts as a form of economic insurance, helping to mitigate the economic impacts of health crises Despite major health sector reforms and plans exacerbated by climate change. Proactive measures to in the past decade, this sector continues to face climate-proof health systems minimize the disruption of challenges relating to healthcare resource capacity, emergency healthcare interventions in times of extreme financial protection, and equitable access to weather events. healthcare services. The fragmented nature of the Philippine health sector is hampering coordinated planning across private and public health systems. 182 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Within public health, there continue to be high variations Second, primary healthcare facilities in the Philippines across local government units in terms of health priority, are not built to withstand extreme climate events with a disproportionate amount of resources invested in such TCs, floods, and rain-induced landslides. These treatment, rather than prevention. In addition, there are barangay health centers serve as frontline health sustained and growing gaps in the absolute number and facilities for the population (e.g., 18 available per every the inequitable distribution of health infrastructure and 100,000 population in BARMM237), especially in low GDP healthcare resources across the Philippines, typically regions such as BARMM that have limited access to with insufficient provision in areas with the greatest need large healthcare facilities (e.g., 0.95 hospitals per every for health care. As a result, the longstanding inequality 100,000 population vs. NCR’s 1.1 hospitals per every embedded in the Philippines’ health system makes 100,000 populations). These primary care facilities are it more challenging to plan for the long-term against jeopardized during unforeseen climate events weakening climate change impacts. an already weak primary care system, with limited sector-wide strategies to protect against such risks. Lastly, there remains inadequate social health insurance Climate Change Impacts on Health support that ensures the affordability of healthcare for all Key vulnerabilities emerge in relation to the Filipinos. Household out-of-pocket expenditures remain Philippines’ ability to achieve targeted health at 50%238, even after 40 years of Philippine Health outcomes considering climate change impacts. Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth). As climate impacts First, the Philippine health system face resource increase, a more robust healthcare financing system limitations, especially across medical personnel and will be necessitated to ensure Filipinos have affordable essential supplies. For example, in 2020, only 56% access to healthcare. of public health facilities was sufficiently stocked with Climate change has both direct and indirect selected essential medicines235, and less than 25% impacts on human health. Directly, exposure to of cities and municipalities have health human resource extreme weather events may increase incidences density above the 41 physicians, nurses, and midwives of vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases, and per 10,000 population recommended by the World heat-related illnesses. The proliferation of dust particles Health Organization236. and pollutants due to air pollution and the emergence of These constraints hinder the sector’s ability to respond allergens may also worsen health issues for populations effectively to sudden and increased healthcare demands with comorbidities. Indirectly, the nutrition of populations resulting from climate-related risks. This challenge may be compromised due to losses in agricultural land became evident during the onset of the COVID-19 and changes in crop production and fish catch, leading Adaptation Priorities pandemic in 2020, as abrupt surges in healthcare to starvation and malnutrition. Exposure to extreme needs critically strained the Philippine health system’s events can also trigger stress and anxiety in the affected resources. Drawing key learnings from the pandemic population; leading to depression and suicide. experience, the health sector has initiated efforts to enhance its responsiveness to unforeseen scenarios. There is an opportunity to proactively prepare for health resilience, specifically focusing on the implications of climate change on health. 235 Philippine Statistics Authority. (n.d.). OpenStat: Sustainable Development Goals (Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages, 3.b.3.p1 Percentage of public health facilities properly stocked with selected essential medicines) [Dataset]. https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/pxweb/en/DB/DB__3I__G03/0233I3D3B31.px/table/ tableViewLayout1/?rxid=8ea3c28a-e5f9-4fee-888e-dfebffd616e8 236 Panay News. (2023, August 13). Maldistribution of healthcare workers. Philippine Institute for Development Studies. Retrieved August 11, 2023, from https://www.pids.gov.ph/details/news/in-the-news/maldistribution-of-healthcare-workers 237 Department of Health. (n.d.). Department of Health National Health Facility Registry (V3.0) [Dataset]. https://nhfr.doh.gov.ph/ 238 Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T. dela Cruz, Nina Ashley O., (2016). Analysis of Out-of-Pocket Expenditures in the Philippines 183 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Climate change compounds the threats posed to the stability of health systems, thus, potentially disrupting access to health services for all Filipinos. The health system already faces constraints that impact its ability to provide equitable healthcare—interrupted service delivery, insufficient capacity of the health workforce, non-interoperable health information systems, limited financing, and disconnected health governance. Climate-induced migration may also increase demand for healthcare services and strain health systems in select areas where unforeseen migration occurs. Insufficient preparation to ensure the resilience of health systems will hinder the ability to minimize mortality amidst climate impacts. The table below highlights the negative effects of climatic impact-drivers on this sector. Table 4.2.3.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers on Health Climate Impact-Driver Impacts to health Sea level rise and Water-related diseases from salinity intrusion and contamination extreme sea levels As seawater intrudes into freshwater sources, salinization occurs, compromising the drinking water quality. This impacts the health of communities reliant on freshwater supplies. Contaminated or polluted water also increases the risk of water-related diseases, including cholera. Damaged health infrastructure Extreme weather events, exacerbated by sea level rise, can damage healthcare facilities and disrupt access to medical services, putting Adaptation Priorities people at risk and causing delays in the delivery of health services, thus exacerbating health issues. Loss of human lives and mental disorders Rising sea levels lead to coastal erosion and the submergence of low-lying areas, resulting in immediate loss of shelter and livelihoods and potential displacement of communities. This displacement can cause psychological distress, trauma, and loss of sense of place and cultural identity. 184 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Extreme precipitation Risk for physical injuries and exposure to water-related illness, e.g., cholera and leptospirosis Extreme rainfall leads to heavy flooding, leading to injuries, drowning, and waterborne diseases. Contaminated floodwater increases the risk of gastrointestinal illnesses, skin infections, and leptospirosis. Contamination of the water supply Pollutants from submerged waste dumps may also contaminate water supplies. Expansion of breeding grounds for vector-borne diseases Wet and humid conditions are ideal mosquito breeding conditions increasing the likelihood of spreading vector-borne diseases e.g., dengue and malaria. Poor Sanitation promotes the potential spread of polio virus The polio virus enters through the mouth, and the infected individual then sheds the virus to the environment where it could rapidly spread to communities, particularly those with poor sanitation. Wind patterns and tropical Injuries and fatalities cyclones Cyclones and extreme winds can cause physical injuries (e.g., cuts, bruises, fractures), and fatalities due to the collapse of structures, flying debris, and/or drowning. People with chronic diseases are at risk for death during severe typhoons due to interrupted access to medical facilities. Exacerbated mental health impacts Experiencing the destruction of homes, loss of loved ones, or sudden displacement from communities due to tropical cyclones can lead to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and worsen existing anxiety disorders. Increased temperature and Expansion of breeding grounds for vector-borne diseases droughts Increased temperatures may also result in changes in breeding patterns of mosquitoes, increasing the likelihood of spearing vector-borne diseases. Adaptation Priorities Increased incidences of heat stroke and cardiovascular stress Extreme heat may potentially worsen conditions like hypertension and increase the risk of heart attacks and other cardiovascular diseases. Compromised food supply and nutrition Extreme heat can lead to drought conditions, which can affect agricultural crops production and compromise health of livestock, which in turn can have significant impacts on available food supply and nutrition. 185 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Among the various climatic-impact drivers, pluvial Accounting for impacts of other climatic-impact drivers flooding239 is a key climate risk that threatens health beyond pluvial floods, an additional PHP495 million yearly infrastructure and networks240. Pluvial flooding damages may be incurred on healthcare infrastructure. can damage roads, bridges, and other transportation In the following decade, healthcare infrastructure in other infrastructure, making it difficult for healthcare providers, regions may also be exposed. By 2050, a projected 10% patients, and medical supplies to access healthcare of critical healthcare infrastructure will be exposed to facilities. As a result, populations will experience delays pluvial floods. In CAR, Region IV-B, and Region IV-A, in receiving urgent medical care. By 2030, a projected more than 20% of facilities242 are projected to be exposed 8% of critical healthcare infrastructure, including to pluvial flooding. hospitals, medical centers, and pharmacies241, will be exposed to pluvial floods, with an estimated 24% of facilities in CAR exposed. Annualized damage of critical healthcare infrastructure nationally could reach PHP610 million in damages per year just from pluvial floods. Figure 4.2.3.1. Number of health facilities exposed to pluvial floods in decade 2030 and decade 2050243 Adaptation Priorities Extreme sea levels are also projected to damage Extreme precipitation due to tropical storms coupled critical health infrastructure significantly. While less with contaminated and polluted water is also health infrastructure is exposed to extreme sea levels expected to increase incidence of climate-related (7%), the potential damage cost incurred is larger at an diseases in the next few decades. estimated PHP490 million in damages per year due to the height of flooding. 239 Pluvial, fluvial and extreme sea level-driven floods are modelled on a 10-year return period, represented by flood heights with a 10% chance of occurring in a year 240 Quantitative climate impacts outlined in this chapter are projected based on climate models developed as part of the National Adaptation Plan process. Detailed methodology for climate models per sector can be viewed on Appendix 2 and Appendix 3 - Health 241 Data does not exhaustively include all health centers e.g. frontline facilities such as barangay health centers and rural health centers 242 Same as above 243 “In decade 2030” refers to 1 in 10 yr return period events in 2030-2040 and “In decade 2050” refers to 1 in 10 year return periods events in 2040-2060 186 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Leptospirosis and dengue fever are among the most critical climate-related diseases facing the Philippines, provided the high volume of dengue cases and the high death rate from leptospirosis. A correlation analysis of environmental determinants was thus used to estimate change in incidences of leptospirosis and dengue. Figure 4.2.3.2. Various vector-borne and water-borne climate-related diseases present in the Philippines. 244 Contaminated or polluted water brought about by poor drainage systems after heavy rainfall may contribute to increases in leptospirosis incidence in the 2030 decade, projected to grow by 58% versus historical incidences. Geographically, Region VI (0.12‰), NCR (0.10‰), and Region III (0.09‰) are expected to have the highest incidence245 rate relative to population. This is in line with historical trends, as well as the large population size and high population density living in informal settlements. However, it is also critical to protect Region X and Region XVIII, given projections estimate a 2-3x increase in annual cases of leptospirosis in the 2030 decade despite a low historical base. Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.2.3.3. ‰ Leptospirosis incidences for 2030 decade and 2050 decade 244 Compendium of Philippine Environment Statistics, 2010-2019.pdf (un.org) 245 2010 to 2019 historical annual cases 187 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 In the 2050 decade, annual leptospirosis cases are projected to be 4% greater than in the 2030 decade. However, similar regional trends are projected, with largest annual projected incidences in Region VI (0.13‰), NCR (0.10‰), and Region III (0.09‰). Table 4.2.3.2. Philippine regions grouped by projected growth rates of leptospirosis cases for 2030 decade against historical annual leptospirosis cases (2010-2019) GROUP 1 GROUP 2 Growth rate > Growth rate < National Growth Rate (58%) National Growth Rate High historical base of annual Region X NCR leptospirosis cases Region VIII Region I Region XIII (>206 cases/year) Low historical base of annual Region VI Region IV-A leptospirosis cases Region III Region XI Region V Region VII (<206 cases/year) CAR Region IV-B Region XII BARMM Region II Region IX On the other hand, warmer temperatures and altered However, it is also critical to protect Region VI and precipitation patterns can expand the geographic range Region III given projections estimate 2 to 3x increase of dengue-carrying mosquitoes. Climate change can in annual cases of leptospirosis in the 2030 decade, also lead to shifts in the timing and duration of seasons, despite its low historical base.246 Region X, Region affecting mosquito populations and dengue transmission VIII and Region XIII are also key regions to monitor for patterns. While dengue incidences are projected to leptospirosis incidences against a large population base, Adaptation Priorities stabilize at a national level (8% decrease in total annual provided expectations of high growth rate, greater than cases versus historical), dengue incidences in some the overall projected national growth rate of 58%.247 regions are expected to grow in the 2030 decade. For example, projected incidence rates for dengue in CAR (4.71%) and Region XIII (3.42%) will be higher than the national average, when historically regions that had a low historical base of dengue incidences. Consequently, it will be critical to accelerate dengue prevention and control efforts in the select regions where annual incidences are still expected to grow, including BARMM (171% increase) and Region V (131% increase), potentially overwhelming health systems available. 2010-2019 Leptospirosis cases taken from: Compendium of Philippine Environment Statistics, 2010-2019.pdf (un.org) 246 Projected incidences for 2030 and 2050 decade from BCG Data Model, with methodology detailed in Appendix 3.3.3 247 Methodology for sectoral climate analytics 188 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 4.2.3.3. Philippine regions grouped by projected growth rates of dengue cases for 2030 decade against historical annual dengue cases (2016-2018) GROUP 1 GROUP 2 Growth rate > National growth Growth rate < National growth rate (-8%) rate (-8%) High historical base of annual Region IV-A Region III dengue cases NCR Region VII Region X Region VI (>14k cases/year) Low historical base of dengue Region XI Region XII leptospirosis cases Region V Region I Region XIII Region IX CAR Region VIII (<14k cases/year) Region IV-B Region II BARMM For example, projected incidence rates for dengue in When considering priority adaptation solutions CAR (4.71%) and Region XIII (3.42%) will be higher for the sector, actions must be taken to protect the than national average, when historically these had most vulnerable populations: elderly, rural, women, been regions that had a low historical base of dengue children, indigenous communities, marginalized incidences. Consequently, it will be critical to accelerate low-income communities, and various subgroups dengue prevention and control efforts in select regions of persons with disabilities, who may have limited where annual incidences are still expected to grow, access to healthcare facilities. Action must be taken including BARMM (171% increase) and Region V to ensure the resiliency of health services in extending (131% increase), potentially overwhelming health services to remote rural and indigenous communities, systems available.248 Similar insights on regional raising awareness about disease prevention and archetypes for Dengue cases can be found on Table preparedness, and providing support to older adults 4.2.3.3, where Group 1 regions may be key areas living in isolation or in remote areas. In addition, a to monitor based on projected growth rate of cases rights-based approach must be taken when viewing the Adaptation Priorities being higher than the projected national rate of -8%.249 needs and circumstances of persons with disabilities. 248 2016-2018 Dengue cases taken from: HDX – Philippine Dengue Cases and Deaths, DOH-Epi Dengue Data 2016-2021.csv (data set link: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/philippine-dengue-cases-and-deaths? 249 Projected incidences for 2030 and 2050 decade from BCG Data Model, with methodology detailed in Appendix 3.3.3 Methodology for sectoral climate analytics 189 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Health Built on the vision of activating a holistic approach to improve health outcomes, reduce health inequalities, and achieve universal healthcare and supported by current programs and policies250 that help address social determinants of health, the adaptation theme for Health is Climate-Adaptive Healthcare for All: Protecting Health & Well-Being of Filipinos. Three priority outcomes underpin this strategy: 1. Minimized patient mortality from climate- sensitive diseases through reinforced primary care and reinforced community health workers. This outcome focuses on reinforcing the accessibility, availability, and affordability of primary health care for all, and enables health 3. Interoperable information system to monitor workers to diagnose, treat, and manage climate- and evaluate health vulnerability and capacity related health challenges effectively. For this, developed. This outcome focuses on empowering dedicated policy and funding support must be health authorities and practitioners at all levels to activated to build up a cadre of health workers make data-driven decisions on health adaptation who can respond anytime and anywhere. priorities. To enable this, it is critical to expedite Unlocking and upskilling health workers will allow efforts to utilize existing data from different for responsive healthcare delivery, even at the agencies, sectors, and communities and work most microscale level of healthcare. towards a comprehensive integration of health 2. Seamless access to climate-responsive health and climate data. services underpinned by resilient health 4. Resilient, interconnected, and community- networks. This outcome focuses on ensuring driven health governance at all levels. equitable access to healthcare for all Filipinos This outcome focuses on establishing effective through enhanced preparedness across public collaboration mechanisms among various health and private health networks for climate-related agencies, sectors, and community stakeholders health risks. This will require the Philippines to to foster an integrated approach to healthcare Adaptation Priorities rethink funding and incentivization schemes to planning and DRR-CCA actions. This requires ensure the financial protection of all Filipinos in bridging gaps between national policy makers relation to health and reinforcing health networks, and local health implementors, bringing together particularly frontline facilities that serve the most climate experts and health experts, and vulnerable populations, to be resilient against the activating community involvement in maximizing impacts of climate change. health outcomes. 250 Refer to Appendix 3 – Health to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 190 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Strategies for Health Outcome 1: Minimized patient mortality from climate-sensitive diseases through reinforced primary care and community health workers Implementing Lead agencies: Supporting agencies: DOH, DILG (LGUs, Local Government Academy) CHED, TESDA, DSWD, DOST, DPWH, SUCs Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Conduct needs Determine training needs and gaps Immediate Medium assessment of of health care workers and develop (0-3 years) healthcare workers for tailored adaptation measures, climate and disaster risk ensuring the continued provision of essential medical services. Unlock funding for Initiate policy development to allocate Medium-term High increasing health worker specific funds for adaptation projects (3-6 years) capacity up to the and provide financial incentives or barangay level recognition programs to build up health worker capacity and invest in their welfare. Increase coverage Scale up community-based Medium-term Medium of community-based programs that focus on education (3-6 years) programs for on health risks of indoor and outdoor prevention and control pollution, vector control measures, of climate-sensitive early detection, and treatment to diseases and risks, effectively prevent and manage including vaccine- climate-sensitive diseases and risks preventable diseases (e.g., promoting the use of cleaner Adaptation Priorities with particular attention cooking stoves, plant-based diets, to poliomyelitis (e.g., urban green spaces, etc.). , including leptospirosis, dengue, environmental sanitation programs pollution) and the conduct of supplemental vaccination campaigns and activities. Upskill health workers Design comprehensive and Medium-term Medium through the development context-specific training modules (3-6 years) and incorporation of that integrate climate change CCA-DRR modules adaptation and disaster risk in the curriculum of all reduction principles to enhance health professionals the preparedness and response capabilities of health workers (e.g., impacts on mental health, climate-sensitive diseases, etc.). 191 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 2: Seamless access to climate-responsive health services underpinned by resilient health networks. Implementing Lead agencies: Supporting agencies: DOH, PhilHealth DILG (LGUs, Local Government Academy), DOTR, DOE, DSWD, DOST, DENR, DPWH, NNC, SUCs Indicative Key Brief Description Implementation Capital- Strategies Priority Intensiveness Conduct climate and Conduct data collection and analysis, Immediate High disaster risk and identify critical assets, assess (0-3 years) vulnerability assessment vulnerabilities, and develop tailored of healthcare adaptation measures, ensuring the networks and related continued provision of essential infrastructure medical services. Establish PhilHealth Conduct research and analysis to Immediate Low schemes and provisions understand the potential impacts of (0-3 years) to contextualize climate change on public health and climate-change related identify coverage where PhilHealth outcomes schemes and provisions need to be adapted to address climate-related outcomes. Strengthen WASH Scale concrete measures to Immediate Medium protocols and prioritize strengthen water, sanitation, and (0-3 years) access to health hygiene and ensure access to health services in post-disaster services, given that diseases can be and makeshift areas transmitted easily in post-disaster communities and evacuation centers. Unlock funding, Initiate policy development to allocate Medium-term High Adaptation Priorities monitoring and national specific funds for adaptation projects (3-6 years) incentivization schemes and offer financial incentives or for climate-proofing recognition programs to healthcare health facilities networks institutions (public and private). and supporting infrastructure Improve and increase Establish strong and responsive Long-term High equitable access to primary care, including capabilities (6+ years) healthcare, especially on emergency response plans, in climate-vulnerable, establishing additional power geographically isolated, systems to ensure service delivery, and disadvantaged and outreach health programs for areas underserved communities and bedridden / incapacitated / elderly people who are confined at home. 192 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 3: Interoperable information system to monitor and evaluate health vulnerability and capacity developed Implementing Lead agencies: Supporting agencies: DOH, DICT, DOST DILG, PAGASA, DENR, PHIVOLCS, NAMRIA Indicative Key Brief Description Implementation Capital- Strategies Priority Intensiveness Accelerate Accelerate progress on DOH’s Immediate High standardization of data PIDSR 251 and FSHIS252 programs (0-3 years) collection, especially on to standardized protocols for data climate-sensitive health collection on climate-related health conditions and diseases vulnerability and capacity, ensuring that data from various health facilities and agencies can be integrated into a cohesive information system. Integration of health Integrate health information systems Immediate Medium information systems with with other information systems, (0-3 years) climate data at national such as meteorological/climate/ and local levels environmental/agricultural/pollution etc., to elucidate climate-health linkages and to inform forecasting, anticipatory planning, and decision-making. Invest in technology Invest in upgrading technological Medium-term High and data infrastructure infrastructure, such as electronic (3-6 years) for early warning and health records and cloud-based anticipatory planning systems, to facilitate data sharing for health and real-time monitoring of health vulnerability and capacity. Adaptation Priorities Build capacity and Conduct training programs for health Long-term High capability to utilize workers and personnel on how to (6+ years) information systems effectively use information systems and make informed for monitoring and evaluating health decisions that protect vulnerability. population health from climate risks 251 Philippine Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response 252 Philippines Field Health Services Information System 193 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 4: Resilient, interconnected, and community-driven health governance at all levels Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DOH DILG, DPWH, DENR, DOST-PCHRD, DSWD, OCD, DICT, NDRRMC, NNC Implementation Capital- Indicative Key Strategies Brief Description Priority Intensiveness Identify trusted climate change Create platforms or networks that Immediate Low champions who can drive health bring together potential climate change (0-3 years) adaptation priorities at national and champions, health professionals, local levels policymakers, and civil society organizations and stakeholder groups to advocate for health adaptation priorities at both national and local levels. Develop and fund a Create and strengthen research Immediate Medium transdisciplinary and centers dedicated to climate and (0-3 years) people-centered health, deepening transdisciplinary climate and health research research on impacts of climate change agenda and disasters on health, links and mechanisms of disease causations, and adaptation options and measures; critical to ensure research is properly translated into policy. Establish formal community- Establish community-engagement Immediate Medium engagement mechanisms to platforms to ensure that climate- (0-3 years) foster knowledge sharing, and resilience strategies are contextually collaborative decision-making relevant, effectively implemented, and sustainable over time. Adaptation Priorities Strengthen the health sector Delineate roles and responsibilities Medium-term Medium and DOH structures to ensure for DRR-CCA issues and establish (3-6 years) responsiveness to climate risks coordination, communication, and to health systems, , developing collaboration mechanisms. plans and strategies to minimize the health sector’s contribution to climate change and reduce global greenhouse emissions and carbon footprint. Deepen inter-agency and Mainstream DRR-CCA issues into Medium-term High cross-sector collaboration health plans at different levels of (3-6 years) to assess and act on health the health systems, incorporating vulnerabilities health lens into climate plans and actions of other sectors. 194 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

4.2.4 Ecosystems & Biodiversity Overview of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in the Philippines Economically, ecosystems provide myriad direct and indirect economic services, supporting a significant portion of Philippine industries and communities. For example, the Philippines marine reef system is estimated to contribute >USD1.35B to the national economy annually.254 Smallholder fisherfolk comprise 45% of the population living in coastal areas and depend on reefs for livelihood. Mangroves in Tawi-Tawi are estimated to provide from 3,216 to 4,733 USD/hectare annually255, while the Philippine reef ecosystem services were estimated to amount to USD4 billion, or 140k USD/km2 annually.256 Ecosystems also provide value in the form of protection against climate hazards—for example, as of 2018, Philippine mangroves were found to prevent flooding damages of over USD1.7 billion per year.257 This value applies socially as well, as ecosystems provide valuable protection to neighboring communities— the same Philippine mangroves were found to prevent flooding exposure for 613,000 Filipinos per year 258, with 23% of this group residing below the poverty threshold259. The combined social and economic ecosystem services Figure 4.2.4.1 Overview of Philippine Forests, provided to Filipinos are undeniably invaluable but have Mangroves, and Coral Reefs253 yet to be fully accounted for. The Philippines is one of the most biodiverse Finally, in terms of biodiversity, with 7,641 islands and countries in the world, spanning both terrestrial and its geographic location at the apex of the Coral Triangle, marine domains—the protection and rehabilitation of its the Philippines stands as one of the 17 mega-biodiverse ecosystems is a critical initiative for the Philippines from countries in the world and is ranked third in terms of both an economic and social standpoint, underscored by marine biodiversity across its many coral reef, mangrove, Adaptation Priorities its inclusion and emphasis in the Philippine Development seagrass, and wetland ecosystems, while also housing a Plan for 2023-2028. wide range of terrestrial ecosystems. 253 DENR (for Mangroves and Forests) and Coral Reef Watch (for Coral Reefs) 254 Department of Environment and Natural Resources – Biodiversity Management Bureau. (2016). Philippine Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2015-2018 255 Roldan, R.B. (2022). ECONOMIC VALUATION OF MANGROVES IN TAWI-TAWI ISLANDS, SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES: A MARKET PRICE AND CONTINGENT VALUATION APPROACH 256 Tamayo, N., Anticamara, J., Acosta-Michlik, L. (2018). National Estimates of Values of Philippine Reefs’ Ecosystem Services. 257 Beck, M.W. et. Al. (2018). Valuing the protection services of mangroves at national scale: The Philippines 258 Losada, I.J., M. Beck, P. Menéndez, A. Espejo, S. Torres, P. Díaz-Simal, F. Fernández, S. Abad, N. Ripoll, J. García, S. Narayan, D. Trespalacios. 2017. Valuation of the Coastal Protection Services of Mangroves in the Philippines. World Bank, Washington, DC. 259 ibid 195 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Poor management and exploitation plague In terms of biodiversity, the Philippines ranks among Philippine ecosystems. Over the past decades, the top ten countries with the largest number of species Philippine ecosystems have undergone rapid threatened with extinction. Certain species are very degradation due to large-scale deforestation and sensitive to climate change-related impacts and the grassland conversion, urbanization, mining, and dam corresponding habitat loss caused by increased construction, leading to freshwater alteration, river and temperature, erratic rainfall distribution, and more lake pollution from domestic and industrial sources, intense TCs which significantly reduce their respective as well as the general decline of mangrove and coral populations. reef habitats. Forested and logged areas are converted Worsening climate trends will have severe impacts to agriculture, overfishing depletes fishery resources, on Philippine ecosystems, biodiversity, and overall and destructive practices like poisoning and dynamite ecological stability if not addressed promptly. fishing severely damage the valuable coral reefs. While varied communities and biodiversity depend on This widespread environmental deterioration has the ecosystem in question, the increasing intensity of impacted numerous endemic species, as highlighted extreme weather events could lead to the deterioration by the IUCN, which reports that 21% of the country’s of habitats and disruption of ecological balance, further vertebrates and over half of its known plant species are endangering various species. Chronic events such as already threatened. rising temperatures and sea levels are also anticipated to contribute to habitat degradation, compromised Overview of Ecosystems and Biodiversity species health, and a decline in biodiversity. The table in the Philippines below outlines the adverse effects of different climate drivers on these vital ecosystems and the rich tapestry Ecosystems across the world are particularly of life they support. vulnerable to climate change, and the Philippines is no exception. Degradation of ecosystems caused by humans is expected to be compounded by climate change—for example, coral bleaching from El Niño in 1997 to 1998 decreased live coral cover in the Philippines by up to 49%—reefs in El Nido were particularly hard hit, going from 60 to 70% coral cover to 5 to 10%, according to the National Climate Change Action Plan. A three-year massive global coral bleaching event was likewise documented from 2014 to 2017, the longest Adaptation Priorities ever recorded, alongside successive record-breaking hot years.260 Impacts like these have cascading effects on the same communities and biodiversity that these ecosystems protect —for example, researchers from Charles Darwin University in Australia and the National University of Singapore found that a 10% increase in deforestation results in a 4 to 28% increase in flood frequency.261 260 Eakin, C.M., Sweatman, HPA, Brainard, R E. (2019). The 2014–2017 global-scale coral bleaching event: insights and impacts. Coral Reefs. 261 BRADSHAW, C.J., SODHI, N.,PEH, K. and BROOK, B. (2007). Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. Global Change Biology (2007) 13, 1—17 196 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Table 4.2.4.1. Impacts of climate hazards on Ecosystems & Biodiversity Climate Impact-Driver Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity Increased temperature Water scarcity for flora and fauna and Drought Increased temperature and drought may reduce water availability, leading to the reduction of species population that depend on specific aquatic habitats, the redistribution of others, or the stunting of growth of terrestrial and mangrove forest trees and potentially forest die-offs, while also increasing the risk of forest fires and raising probability of saltwater intrusion. Coral bleaching Raised sea temperatures can lead to coral bleaching and the resulting degradation of reef ecosystems Sea level rise and Coastal and marine habitat submersion extreme sea levels Increasing sea levels, and storm surges amplified by extreme tropical cyclones, can pose significant risks to mangrove forests, leading to the loss of their protective functions262 and crucial habitats for fish and other wildlife. Increased saltwater intrusion also affects mangrove growth and survival. Higher sea levels may also lead to limited access for corals to photosynthesize, stunting their growth or even leading to mortality. Saltwater intrusion Sea levels increase saltwater intrusion into river systems, affecting freshwater availability, water quality, and the distribution of freshwater species. It disrupts the natural flow regimes of rivers. Storm surges and coastal flooding associated with extreme sea levels inundate lowland forests, leading to soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, and changes in species composition. In wetland and marsh areas, this changes vegetation composition and potential loss of habitat for wetland-dependent species. Adaptation Priorities Blankespoor, B., Dasgupta, S. & Lange, GM. (2016). Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate. 262 Ambio 46, 478–491 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0838-x 197 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Extreme precipitation Flooding leading to forest damage Intense rainfall increases the risk of flooding and weakens earth composition in forested areas, triggering landslides leading to soil erosion, habitat destruction, and changes in vegetation structure. Tree Mortality and Species Composition Prolonged and excessive rainfall saturates the soil, leading to waterlogging and reduced oxygen availability for tree roots. This results in tree mortality and alterations in species composition. Intense rainfall events also cause temporary inundation and changes in water chemistry within wetland and marsh areas, influencing vegetation composition and affecting wetland-dependent species. Salinity fluctuations Intense rainfall can lead to freshwater influx into estuaries, altering salinity levels and affecting mangrove forests. Changes in water chemistry can impact mangrove species composition and disrupt nursery habitats for marine species. Wind patterns and Structural damage tropical cyclones Strong winds during cyclones uproot trees and cause widespread damage in forested areas, leading to habitat destruction, altered forest structure, and loss of biodiversity. Intense winds also result in riverbank erosion, increased sedimentation, and altered flow dynamics, affecting the structure and function of riverine ecosystems. Likewise, this damages wetland and marsh ecosystems, leading to changes in vegetation composition, habitat loss, and potential impacts on marine and wetland-dependent species. Distinct ecosystems are each particularly vulnerable In particular, the mangroves of the provinces of Palawan to a specific climatic impact-driver—sea level rise and Quezon are expected to face the most exposure, inundating mangroves, increased air temperatures each at approximately 90 km2. This impact on mangrove Adaptation Priorities bleaching coral reefs, and extreme precipitation forests combined with the expected vulnerability of causing inland flooding forested areas.263 regions IV-A, V, and VIII highlighted in Chapter 3.3 due Sea level rise has been known to cause stress to to more frequent and intensified extreme sea levels may mangrove trees, driving the retreat or disappearance lead to compounded impacts that local government units of mangrove forests in submerged areas. By the should be prepared for. 2030 decade, 32% of mangroves in the nation are projected to be exposed to sea level rise flooding of 1 m, further increasing to 48% in the decade between 2050 and 2060—70% of this impact may materialize along the coasts of regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VIII, and XIII. Quantitative climate impacts outlined in this chapter are projected based on climate models developed as part of the 263 National Adaptation Plan process. Detailed methodology for climate models per sector can be viewed on Appendix 2 and Appendix 3 – Ecosystems and Biodiversity 198 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 4.2.4.2 Mangroves exposed to 1 m of sea level rise between 2030-40, 2050-60, SSP5-8.5 Rising temperatures is by far the most threatening climatic impact-driver for coral reefs – Between 2030 and 2040, 19% of coral reefs across the Philippines may be exposed to a rise in air temperature of 1 degree Celsius or more. Of this exposure, close to half of the exposed coral reefs are projected to fall within Region IV-B and Palawan in particular, despite it making up only a fifth of the total reef area of the Philippines. Of note, the coral reefs of Palawan house the Tubbataha Reef, a UNESCO-declared World Heritage Site wherein 75% of the world’s known corals can be found. Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.2.4.2 Mangroves exposed to 1 m of sea level rise between 2030-40, 2050-60, SSP5-8.5 199 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 While they protect communities from the impacts of flooding, forests themselves are vulnerable to the impacts caused by extreme precipitation. Between 2030 to 2040, over a third of Philippine forests are projected to be exposed to either pluvial or fluvial floods exceeding 1m in depth, further increasing to ~47% in the decade of 2050. Over 65% of this exposure is expected to be observed in CAR and Regions II, III, IV-B, and XI, with CAR in particular composing more than a fifth of the exposed forests. In terms of provinces, Palawan, Abra, and Benguet are expected to see the most forest exposed to such floods. Given the importance of forests in minimizing damage caused by floods and landslides in nearby communities, it is important to highlight further vulnerability of CAR, Regions II, III, IV-B, and XI, already identified as among the most at risk due to pluvial and fluvial flooding, and Benguet being the most susceptible province towards landslides in Chapter 3.3 when selecting and localizing strategies to be implemented. Figure 4.2.4.4 Forests exposed to 1m of pluvial or fluvial flooding between 2030-40, 2050-60, SSP5-8.5 Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Ecosystems & Biodiversity Grounded on national policies and existing programs related to this sector 264, the adaptation theme for Ecosystems & Biodiversity is Safeguard and Nurture Biodiversity: Restore and Sustain Natural Assets. Adaptation Priorities Three priority outcomes underpin this strategy: 1. Ecosystems accounts developed and regularly updated to monitor and enhance regulating services for adaptation. This outcome focuses on the valuation of ecosystem services and developing and maintaining ecosystem accounts to optimize understanding of the regulatory services of ecosystems and inform policy development and investment plans for adaptation. To achieve this, accounting and monitoring programs that have been rolled out must be strictly and regularly enforced by local government units. 264 Refer to Appendix 3 – Ecosystems & Biodiversity to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 200 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 2. Protected and rehabilitated biodiversity Prioritizing adaptation strategies that ensure resilient across habitats and ecosystems. This outcome and well-monitored ecosystems will not only bolster focuses on the protection and rehabilitation of the nation’s capability to withstand climate change, but critical habitats and ecosystems, maintaining also provide a long-lasting source of value derived from their interconnectedness for biodiversity and ecosystem services for generations to come. Strategies ecosystem service output amidst climate hazards, must involve comprehensive, and regular accounting following well-received approaches such as the and monitoring programs to guide decision-making Ridge-to-Reef Approach, while capitalizing upon regarding ecosystems and well-enforced protection, Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) or Nature- management, and rehabilitation programs to ensure based Solutions. To achieve this outcome, efforts decisions are implemented as intended. must go beyond protecting remaining ecosystems and their surrounding areas to active rehabilitation and restoration. Academe and the public are key actors in supporting the programs that work towards this outcome. 3. Enabled and empowered communities to lead ecological management. This outcome focuses on equipping and supporting local communities to enable their active involvement in the planning, decision-making, and implementation of the management and conservation of ecosystems. To achieve this, the involvement and capacitation of local communities and government units, indigenous people, and the private sector is critical. Priority Adaptation Strategies for Ecosystems & Biodiversity Outcome 1: Ecosystems accounts developed and regularly updated to monitor and enhance regulating services for adaptation Adaptation Priorities Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DENR DOST, NEDA, PSA, DILG, DHSUD Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Expand and improve Spatial planning that designates Immediate High upon ecosystem zoning areas for different uses and (0-3 years) and mapping conservation priorities/actions, such as DENR’s Natural Resources Assessment, while updating documents such as DHSUD’s Zoning Guidebook/Development Controls 201 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Implement vulnerability Detection of climate change indicators Immediate Medium assessment and in certain ecosystems, enabling (0-3 years) monitoring programs enactment of other interventions. Implement existing Quantifying and valuing natural Long-term High programs to perform capital and ecosystem services to (6+ years) natural capital assess their economic value through accounting and a standardized approach, informing valuation of decision-making and management to ecosystem services ensure the resiliency of ecosystems to climate change, building upon the Roadmap to Institutionalize Natural Capital Accounting in the Philippines. Perform long-term Long-term (6+ years) research on and Long-term High ecosystem research monitoring of changes in ecosystems (6+ years) to enhance the due to changes in land use, climate assessment of the change, and other environmental consequences of factors. management policy decisions Outcome 2: Protected and rehabilitated biodiversity across habitats and ecosystems Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DENR DILG, DAR, DA, SUCs, DepEd, CHED, NCIP Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Adaptation Priorities Identify, assess, and Identification of high-priority Immediate Medium monitor vulnerable habitats, followed by an assessment (0-3 years) habitats on a regular to enable timely protection from basis further degrading natural and anthropomorphic activities combined with proactive rehabilitation to minimize further loss amidst climate change. 202 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Enhance implementation Ensuring enhanced enforcement of Medium-term Medium of existing laws, laws, protection, and interconnectivity (3-6 years) regulations, and of ecosystems to maximize their guidelines resiliency to climate change following principles such as the Ridge-to-Reef approach, while regulation of activities permitted (e.g., no trawling, farming, etc.) within prioritized ecosystems, with policies such as RA 7586 or National Integrated Protected Area System Act (NIPAS) and RA 11038 or Expanded National Integrated Protected Area System (ENIPAS) Act. Rehabilitate and restore Managed realignment of coastlines; Medium-term High coastal and marine re-establishing and protecting coastal (3-6 years) ecosystems habitats, including mangroves, saltmarshes, coral reefs, sea grass beds, and other such ecosystems with high adaptation potential Establish coastal Survey/mapping and delineation of Medium-term High setback zones/ tidal datum lines to build resiliency (3-6 years) boundaries of coastal ecosystems through the Wetland Conservation Program, and Coastal and Marine Ecosystems Management Program (CMEMP). Restore degraded Facilitate forest restoration to Long-term High forests and ensure their resiliency amidst climate (6+ years) deforested areas change through DENR’s forestry programs such as the National Adaptation Priorities Greening Program and Community Based Forest Management using diverse strategies including reforestation, agroforestation, assisted natural regeneration, and tree plantation development. Strengthen the Monitoring and identification of most Long-term Medium monitoring and suitable measures to take (managed (6+ years) management of relocation, captive breeding, threatened and supplementation, etc.) to avoid rare species further loss amidst climate change, building upon the Threatened Species Conservation and Management Program, and the Protection and Conservation of Wildlife Program. 203 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 3: Enabled and empowered communities to lead ecological management Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DENR DILG, DAR, DA, SUCs, DepEd, CHED, NCIP Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Run public education/ Publicizing the role of ecosystems Immediate Medium awareness programs in supporting human society, (0-3 years) on the importance of reducing anthropogenic pressures for ecosystems development, and minimizing further loss amidst climate change. Establish collaborative Partnerships between local Immediate High research partnerships communities, researchers, and (0-3 years) environmental organizations to provide access to scientific expertise, enabling ecological assessment, and better-informed decisions at a local level to improve the resiliency of ecosystems. Enact legislation Policies and programs established Immediate Medium to support at an LGU level, integrated with (0-3 years) community-based supporting programs such as ecological management Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) programs, ecotourism development, and Biodiversity- friendly enterprises (BDFE) to legitimize local communities’ Adaptation Priorities ownership and encourage sustainable use across ecosystems. Enact legislation to Enacting the National Land Use Act Immediate Low enhance uses of land, and Sustainable Forest Management (0-3 years) ecosystems Act will facilitate the integrated and and watersheds coordinated use of land, ecosystems and watersheds for socioeconomic purposes and environmental protection to help ensure resiliency across ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. 204 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Establish Payment for Financial incentives to landowners Medium-term High Ecosystem Services and communities for implementing (3-6 years) (PES) programs practices that enhance ecosystem services, such as reforestation, wetland restoration, or sustainable land management—integrate PES into nature-dependent industries such as tourism. Implement Certifications and labels for Medium-term Medium eco-certification businesses that meet certain criteria, (3-6 years) programs such as sustainable resource use, habitat protection, or pollution reduction, help encourage the improvement of ecosystem resilience.

4.2.5 Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement, and Migration Overview of Cultural Heritage, Population The country has a responsibility to ensure the dignity Displacement, and Migration in the Philippines and well-being of individuals and communities who have left their homes due to climate-related events. Addressing climate-induced human mobility with a Upholding human rights and providing aid reflects lens of cultural heritage preservation is critical in the Philippines’ values and commitment to basic planning adaptation measures for the Philippines. principles of fairness and justice, especially since As a result of climate-related environmental stressors, society’s most vulnerable populations are most impacted many Filipino communities now face challenges in by these events. human mobility. Increasingly, mobility is seen as Today, discussions on climate emergencies in an adaptation strategy to manage the impacts of relation to communities focus on recovery from climate change. rapid onset events like typhoons, storm surges, From an economic perspective, effective integration and floods. However, there is a need to consider the of displaced individuals and migrants into the local Adaptation Priorities whole spectrum of human mobility considering climate workforce can lead to improved human capital in change—migrants, returning migrants, temporary relocated areas. In addition, proper measures to address evacuation, permanent evacuation, and voluntary and integration into localities can utilize the skills and talents involuntary mobility. Proper reintegration of displaced of migrants, leading to increased economic productivity populations and support for populations needing to and growth. migrate due to slow onset events (e.g., chronic physical More importantly, from a social standpoint, impacts of climate change) need to be central to climate proper reintegration of populations ensures that adaptation priorities. Individuals lose their livelihoods communities can maintain their unique traditions, and income sources when they move, and reintegrating languages, and ways of life. With the Philippines’ them into the workforce can be challenging, especially rich and diverse identity, fostering a sense of if their skills do not match local job market demands. belonging, social cohesion, and continuity across Reintegration efforts may face difficulties in ensuring generations is a critical element of climate adaptation. that populations have access to essential services, especially since overcrowding in host communities can strain existing infrastructure and resources. 205 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Lastly, cultural differences and misconceptions often Two key considerations center the discussions on climate lead to exclusion and marginalization. The Philippines change impacts on human mobility in the Philippines. needs to strengthen its proactive planning approach to First, the increasing frequency and magnitude of climatic human mobility and shift away from reactive disaster impact-drivers will continue to affect migration patterns management and response. There is an opportunity in the country. Over 15 million Filipinos were estimated to to enhance capacities and design durable solutions be voluntarily and involuntarily displaced by 245 reported to address migration, displacement, and planned climate disaster events from 2020 to 2022.265 Displaced relocation. populations, including those who have migrated due to slow onset environmental pressures, face the dual Climate Change Impacts on Cultural Heritage, challenge of finding new settlements, while contending Population Displacement, and Migration with unfamiliar surroundings and limited resources. The Two key considerations center the discussions on climate disruption caused by climate change exacerbates the change impacts on human mobility in the Philippines. vulnerability of these populations, compounding their First, the increasing frequency and magnitude of climatic struggle for adequate housing, livelihoods, security, and impact-drivers will continue to affect migration patterns access to essential services. in the country. Over 15 million Filipinos were estimated to Second, the Philippines also home to large indigenous be voluntarily and involuntarily displaced by 245 reported communities spread out across the archipelago. An climate disaster events from 2020 to 2022.265 Displaced estimated 14 to 17 million indigenous people belong to populations, including those who have migrated due 110 different ethnolinguistic groups266. These indigenous to slow onset environmental pressures, face the dual groups inhabit remote or ecologically sensitive land that challenge of finding new settlements, while contending are increasingly susceptible to adverse climate events, with unfamiliar surroundings and limited resources. The further exacerbated by environmentally destructive disruption caused by climate change exacerbates the projects.267 Displacement from their cultural lands vulnerability of these populations, compounding their significantly impacts their way of life, as land is integral struggle for adequate housing, livelihoods, security, and to their cultural identity, livelihoods, spiritual practices, access to essential services. social structures, and traditional knowledge systems. Second, the Philippines also home to large indigenous In addition, these communities are more economically communities spread out across the archipelago. An vulnerable, with 73% of all IPs belonging to the 40% estimated 14 to 17 million indigenous people belong to poorest of the population.268 110 different ethnolinguistic groups266. These indigenous groups inhabit remote or ecologically sensitive land that Adaptation Priorities are increasingly susceptible to adverse climate events, further exacerbated by environmentally destructive projects.267 Displacement from their cultural lands significantly impacts their way of life, as land is integral to their cultural identity, livelihoods, spiritual practices, social structures, and traditional knowledge systems. In addition, these communities are more economically vulnerable, with 73% of all IPs belonging to the 40% poorest of the population.268 265 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. (2022). Country Profile: Philippines - Displacement Data [Dataset]. In Disaster Data. https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/philippines 266 Legal Rights and Natural Resources Center. (2022). State of Indigenous Peoples Address 2022 Report. Legal Rights and Natural Resources Center - Friends of the Earth Philippines. Retrieved August 14, 2023, from https://www.lrcksk.org/post/sipa- 2022-report-launched-half-of-ancestral-domains-found-under-environmental-threat 267 Previous studies have found that almost half of all Certificate of Ancestral Domain Titles (CADTs) are embroiled in environmentally destructive projects 268 International Organization for Migration - Philippines. (2021). Framing the Human Narrative of Migration in the Context of Climate Change. In International Organization for Migration 206 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 To enact this, adaptation efforts should respect Lastly, engaging indigenous leaders and community and integrate indigenous traditions, languages, and members in decision-making processes is crucial knowledge systems. Many indigenous groups have to ensuring effective and well-received adaptation deep cultural and spiritual connections to their ancestral measures. They should be provided with the lands. As such, ensuring their ownership and control resources, training, and support needed to take an over these lands is a matter of justice and a strategy for active role in designing and implementing their own sustainable adaptation. adaptation strategies. Indigenous communities also possess invaluable Climate change poses a significant threat to the traditional ecological knowledge about resource well-being of migrants and indigenous peoples. management, passed through generations. This The negative impacts of climate change largely wisdom, which often involves sustainable practices and exacerbate current risk conditions for displaced harmonious coexistence with the environment, should be populations, particularly for existing vulnerable acknowledged and incorporated into adaptation plans. populations. The table below highlights some of these negative effects. Table 4.2.5.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers on Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement, and Migration Impact on cultural heritage, population displacement Climate Impact-Driver and migration Increased temperature Expected increase of climate refugees and Drought Slow-onset climate events (e.g., rising sea levels) will persistently drive populations away from their settlements, amplifying the need for managed Extreme precipitation retreat and mobility as an adaptation strategy. Increased mobility due to extreme heat Increased temperature can affect the productivity of agricultural land. Wind patterns and These circumstances may result in farmers seeking other sources of tropical cyclones livelihood in other areas. Disruption of livelihoods Adaptation Priorities Loss of sw livelihoods, overcrowded settlements with limited infrastructure and resources can trap displaced populations in a cycle of vulnerability. Disruption of learning continuity for children Children who are displaced due to climate change may end up in areas with limited access to quality education facilities and resources, which may affect early learning. Loss of access to services Displaced populations often have difficulty in accessing necessities, such as shelter, infrastructure, and social services, exacerbating their vulnerabilities and hindering recovery and resettlement efforts. 207 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Impact on cultural heritage, population displacement Climate Impact-Driver and migration Increased temperature Potential loss of culture and traditions and Drought Climate-induced displacement can sever ties between populations and their cultural heritage rooted in specific geographic locations including Extreme precipitation traditional practices, language, rituals, and ways of life. Increased conflict and instability269 Climate-related impacts can exacerbate existing social and political Wind patterns and tensions and contribute to instability in vulnerable regions (e.g. BARMM), tropical cyclones often through indirect pathways. Populations displaced by a combination of both conflict and the consequences of climate change are extremely unlikely to be able to return home. Links with trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrants270 While climate risks do not in themselves cause trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrants, these can create personal, situational, and contextual conditions that affect migrants, especially women. Among the various CIDs, wind patterns and tropical On the other hand, 4.8 million Filipinos per year are cyclones, and pluvial flooding271 are projected to affect projected to be exposed to pluvial floods. CAR, Region IV-A, the largest magnitude of populations272. In the 2030 Region V, and Region X have ratios of populations most decade, an estimated 5.3 million people per year will exposed to pluvial floods relative to its regional population. be exposed to at least one Category 4 or Category 5 Notably, the largest indigenous groups are mainly cyclone, of which 20% are impoverished populations who concentrated in CAR (33% of IPs). While exposure to have limited resources to resist, adapt, or recover from climate events does not directly lead to climate-induced voluntary or involuntary migration. In the 2050 decade, migration, recurring exposure to these climate risks an estimated six million people per year will be exposed increases the occurrence of potential migration. to cyclones, most affected of which include Region V, CAR, and Region II, in terms of percent of population exposed in the region. In terms of absolute number of populations exposed, highly populated regions, including Adaptation Priorities NCR, Region IV-A, and Region III are most impacted in both the 2030 and the 2050 decades. 269 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). (2022). Conflict and Climate. UNFCCC. Retrieved September 14, 2023, from https://unfccc.int/blog/conflict-and-climate 270 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2022). Policy Brief Climate, Crime and Exploitation: The gendered links between climate risk, trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrations. Retrieved September 14, 2023, from https:// www.unodc.org/documents/human-trafficking/GLO-ACTII/UNODC_Climate-TIP-SOM_Policy_Paper.pdf. 271 Pluvial, fluvial and extreme sea level-driven floods are modelled on a 10-year return period, represented by flood heights with a 10% chance of occurring in a year. 272 Quantitative climate impacts outlined in this chapter are projected based on climate models developed as part of the National Adaptation Plan process. Detailed methodology for climate models per sector can be viewed on Appendix 2 and Appendix 3 – Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement and Migration 208 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 4.2.5.1. % of populations exposed to cyclones in 2050 decade and % of populations exposed to pluvial flooding in 2050 decade Migration due to slow onset climate events such This results in either involuntary immobility, where as sea level rise is also a key climate risk that will populations may then continue to be exposed to harmful impact this sector. In the 2030 decade, an estimated hazards, or forced mobility, where reintegration efforts 150,000 Filipinos may be exposed to sea level rise may be constrained by their limited financial resources. annually. In the 2050 decade, this increases to an Inclusive policies, social safety nets, education and skill estimated 425,000 Filipinos per year, of which 50% of development programs, and community engagement the populations exposed are from Region III and initiatives are crucial to ensure successful reintegration Region V. Over 150,000 elderly and children are also and reduce the socio-economic disparities that projected to be exposed to sea level rise, accounting for the poor face. populations who will have limited ability and/or resources to fend for themselves. As these populations are exposed to sea level rise and its permanent effects, this may necessitate voluntary Adaptation Priorities or involuntary migration away from their areas of settlement. Various mobility strategies will need to be employed to manage human mobility in light of climate change, considering populations’ desire to migrate and their capability to do so. Notably, among vulnerable population segments, Filipinos below the poverty threshold are projected to be disproportionately exposed to sea level rise, particularly in provinces in Southern Mindanao. Impoverished populations often have fewer social networks and connections that can influence their capability to migrate. Figure 4.2.5.2. % of impoverished exposed among exposed populations in 2030 decade 209 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement, and Migration With expectations of increased climate-induced 2. Robust preparatory and reintegration support human mobility273, the adaptation theme for Cultural for populations impacted by slow onset Heritage, Population Displacement, and Migration is climate events. This outcome focuses on Safeguarding Communities & Culture: Durable providing psychosocial and sufficient preparatory Solutions for Climate-Induced Mobility. aid to communities affected by gradual onset Three priority outcomes underpin this strategy: climate events. Ensuring mental well-being and readiness to cope with long-term environmental 1. Provision of adaptive physical, social, changes is critical, especially for populations who economic, and gender-responsive support migrate involuntarily from their areas of settlement. to populations displaced by sudden climate Focus needs to be given to vulnerable segments events. This outcome focuses on ensuring such as children, women, persons with disabilities, displaced populations regardless of if voluntary and the elderly to ensure support for reintegration or involuntary, have access to mechanisms that into new communities. protect their physical, social, and economic 3. Preservation, protection, and rehabilitation welfare. This includes access to temporary shelter of cultural heritage amidst climate risks. and/or safe sustainable permanent housing This outcome focuses on deploying proactive options, basic services, and temporary/long-term measures to preserve and protect cultural heritage employment opportunities. Displaced populations to safeguard important aspects of Filipino history must deem relocation areas that are conducive and identity. This includes the protection of not for living. only the physical cultural heritage sites, but also considers the unique circumstances of indigenous peoples and their ties to their ancestral land. Priority Adaptation Strategies for Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement and Migration Outcome 1: Provision of adaptive physical, social, and economic support to populations displaced by sudden climate events Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: NDRMMC, DSWD, DHSUD, DENR OCD, DILG, NHA, DTI, Commission on Population & Development, PCW, National Council on Disability Adaptation Priorities Affairs, National Commission of Senior Citizens Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Provide adequate social Organize gender-responsive Immediate High facilities and programs community events and programs (0-3 years) in resettlement areas aimed towards inclusion and protection of displaced individuals within their new communities, as well as the creation of social facilities in resettlement areas (e.g., day care centers, recreational spaces, etc.). 273 Refer to Appendix 3 – Cultural Heritage, Population Displacement and Migration to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 210 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Strengthen recovery Strengthen NDRRMC and other Immediate Medium coordination between multi-stakeholder task forces that (0-3 years) the public sector, facilitate regular communication, community volunteers, information sharing, and joint planning CSOs/NGOs, and the among the public sector, CSOs/ private sector. NGOs, and the private sector to identify resource gaps and streamline recovery strategies. Develop incentive Upgrade new and available shelters Immediate High mechanisms using locally available, sustainable (0-3 years) to encourage materials and techniques, elevated climate-resilient shelter in flood-prone areas, integrated design and construction. with renewable energy sources and rainwater harvesting systems. Provide temporary Widen distribution and reach of Immediate High subsidies for food stamps, rations, emergency (0-3 years) necessity support. food distribution, education, and healthcare subsidies. Capacitate regional Implement action plans along Immediate High offices to roll out dimensions of the policy framework, (0-3 years) Post-Disaster Shelter including institutional arrangements, Recovery Policy shelter recovery practices, shelter Framework to LGUs. recovery planning, shelter recovery financing, and shelter recovery implementation, with direct focus on the most vulnerable segments— Adaptation Priorities women, elderly, youth, and persons with disabilities. Introduce a variety Coordinate with nearby communities Medium-term High of local sources of to identify open economic (3-6 years) livelihood in the locality. opportunities for resettled communities to tap into. Build resilient social Create programs that will enable Medium-term Medium enterprises through displaced communities to set up or (3-6 years) public-private contribute social enterprises (e.g., partnerships. green solutions/products) through public-private partnerships. 211 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Broaden access to Ensure that displaced communities Medium-term Medium local financing and have access to financing and lending (3-6 years) lending facilities. facilities to support their relocation. Scale partnerships with Establish joint programs to deliver Medium-term High NGOs and train local services and programs to address (3-6 years) healthcare providers, the psychological and social needs of licensed social workers, individuals and communities and emergency who have been forcibly displaced responders. or relocated. Outcome 2: Robust preparatory and reintegration support for populations impacted by slow onset climate events Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: NDRMMC, DSWD, DHSUD, DOLE OCD, DILG, NHA, Commission on Population & Development, DENR Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Define national Determine national policy and Immediate High policy framework framework to assess, support, and (0-3 years) on climate-induced reintegrate climate refugees and other migration to ensure migrants affected by climate change, social protection. with a focus on activating social preparation methods for return or resettlement into new areas. Scale targeted Establish comprehensive early Immediate Medium community education warning systems to monitor and (0-3 years) Adaptation Priorities programs to increase predict slow onset climate events awareness on and combine with targeted climate risks. community education programs to increase awareness about the potential impacts. Strengthen capacities Enhance skills and readiness of Immediate Medium on safe evacuation and individuals and communities to (0-3 years) disaster response effectively carry out safe evacuation procedures and respond to disasters. Facilitate mechanisms Facilitate participatory adaptation Medium-term Medium for community-based planning at the community level by (3-6 years) adaptation planning collaborating with locals to identify specific vulnerabilities and design context-specific strategies. 212 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 3: Preservation, protection, and rehabilitation of cultural heritage amidst climate risks Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: NCIP, NCAA, DoH, DepEd, DSWD, DILG, DHSUD, DENR, National Historical Commission of the Philippines DFA-UNACOM Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Assess vulnerability of Conduct thorough assessments Immediate Medium cultural heritage sites to of cultural heritage sites, including (0-3 years) climate risks. detailed vulnerability maps, to pinpoint high-risk areas and prioritize preservation efforts. Integrate indigenous Collaborate with indigenous Immediate Medium knowledge into climate communities to integrate traditional (0-3 years) risk assessments. ecological knowledge, such as local climate patterns, adaptive practices, and sustainable resource management, into climate risk assessments. Develop and deploy Develop disaster preparedness Medium-term Medium culture-specific programs, especially for indigenous (3-6 years) disaster preparedness. communities impacted by climate change, that incorporate cultural values, practices, and community Adaptation Priorities roles. Activate community-led Empower indigenous communities Medium-term Medium monitoring and to actively monitor and protect their (3-6 years) protection. heritage sites and ancestral land. Develop culturally Create capacity-building programs Long-term High sensitive tailored to the cultural context of (6+ years) capacity-building traditional workers for new green jobs, programs to ensure aiming to secure their employment job security of and livelihoods while protecting traditional workers. informal traditional livelihoods, where possible. 213 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

4.2.6 Land Use and Human Settlements Overview of Land Use and Human Settlements In parallel, human settlements275 are overburdened in the Philippines by rapid urbanization, with urban populations growing by 12% from 2015 to 2020276. Rapid urbanization Land use and human settlements play a vital has contributed to increasing informal settlements role in the development and sustainability of the in hazard-prone areas, increasing by 5.4%, with an Philippines.274 From an economic perspective, the estimated 1.3 million informal settlers in Metro Manila sector has far-reaching impacts on national prosperity alone277 living in informal housing. Further, the pandemic and economic growth. Proper land use planning and has highlighted and compounded existing inefficiencies, settlement development reduces transportation costs inequities, and injustices in our settlement systems and and increases productivity, while sustainable land use placed setbacks in a challenging path to sustainability. practices can enhance agricultural productivity and support rural livelihoods. Moreover, well-planned human Climate Change Impacts on Land Use settlements can improve housing affordability, increase and Human Settlements property values, and stimulate tourism, thus increasing There are two unique reasons why the Philippines’ revenue streams for local economies and the country. land use and human settlements are indisputably From a social standpoint, effective land use and vulnerable to climate change. First, given the well-planned human settlements contribute to improved Philippines’ archipelagic geography, 60% of Philippine quality of life for Filipinos. Properly designed urban and cities are along the coast. As climate events become rural spaces can enhance community cohesion, provide more frequent and increase in intensity, those living access to essential services, and promote a sense in the country’s coastal areas and low-lying regions, of belonging. Decent infrastructure promotes social home to an estimated 5.4 million people, are especially inclusion by providing housing for low-income families susceptible to these hazards.278 and marginalized communities. Additionally, thoughtfully Second, rapid urbanization has contributed to managed land use can help preserve cultural heritage divergences to planned land use and increased informal and protect natural ecosystems. settlements in hazard-prone areas. An estimated Today, this sector faces a myriad of challenges 2.45 million impoverished Filipinos live in informal relating to capacity, land use, access to shelter settlements, with ~40% concentrated within NCR 279. and services, connectivity, equity and justice, and This means that future climate events disproportionately informality. For example, land use planning operates impact vulnerable populations, who have limited ability Adaptation Priorities in a complex environment of mandates between to withstand and recover from climate disasters. various government agencies. Furthermore, land use planning functions are carried out at different levels of the Philippine administrative hierarchy, and there are challenges to capacitating land use planning at local government levels. 274 Aligned with the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 and Resilient and Green Human Settlements Framework 275 In line with the Resilient and Green Human Settlements Framework, human settlements are viewed as a system comprised of physical, natural, and social elements 276 Philippine Statistics Authority. (2022). Urban Population of the Philippines (2020 Census of Population and Housing). Retrieved August 10, 2023, from https://psa.gov.ph/content/urban-population-philippines-2020-census-population-and- housing. 277 UNESCO, UNDP, IOM, & UN-Habitat. (n.d.). Policy Briefs on Internal Migration in Southeast Asia: Overview of Internal Migration in Philippines. In bangkok.unesco.org. 278 Climate Central. (n.d.). Coastal Risk Screening Tool [Software]. https://coastal.climatecentral.org 279 Navarro, A. M., Reyes, C. M., & Francisco, K. A. (2021). UN Common Country Assessment Update for the Philippines. https://pidswebs.pids.gov.ph/. 214 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Escalating climate change directly jeopardizes land and human settlements. For example, extreme sea levels such as storm surges are becoming more severe due to climate change, resulting in the inundation and flooding of coastal cities, settlements, and infrastructure. Floods damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation networks, and affect land use patterns. Beyond sea level rise and extreme sea levels, the table below highlights the negative effects of other CIDs on this sector. Table 4.2.6.1 Impacts of climatic impact-drivers on Land Use and Human Settlements Impact on cultural heritage, population displacement Climate Impact-Driver and migration Sea level rise and Inundation of land and human settlements extreme sea levels Extreme sea levels caused by storm surges and typhoons are becoming more severe due to climate change, resulting in the inundation and flooding of coastal cities, settlements, and infrastructure. Infrastructure damage Flooding from sea level rise damages critical infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and buildings. Apart from residential infrastructure, coastal facilities like ports and airports are susceptible to the effects of rising sea levels and severe maritime events. Extreme precipitation Damaged human settlements and non-connectivity due to flooding and landslides Intense rainfall events loosen earth structure and increase the risk of landslides and soil erosion, especially in mountainous and hilly regions. This threatens both land (agricultural land) and infrastructure. Wind patterns and Damaged human settlements tropical cyclones Cyclones and extreme winds often lead to mass displacement as homes and communities are destroyed. The affected population is forced to relocate, putting pressure on available resources and infrastructure in safer areas. Additionally, displaced populations often face compromised health due to limited access to clean water, sanitation, and medical Adaptation Priorities services while also experiencing heightened mental health challenges stemming from trauma, loss, and the stress of displacement. Infrastructure damage Cyclones and extreme winds can cause substantial damage to infrastructure, including buildings, roads, bridges, and power lines. 215 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Among the various CIDs, sea level rise is among This translates to an estimated 85,000 residential the key climate risks that threaten land use and homes inundated by rising sea levels, many of which human settlements.280 As sea levels rise, existing unaccounted for are informal settlements and coastal infrastructure, properties, and ecosystems become communities. Annualized damage of residential permanently inundated, disrupting urban development, infrastructure could potentially reach PHP7 billion in and necessitating costly adaptations. By 2040, damages per year due to sea level rise. a projected 160 km2 of land will be permanently Rising sea levels may also permanently inundate inundated by sea level rise, with more than 30% of significant land areas in other regions. By 2060, a land in the National Capital Region at risk. Region projected total of 380 km2 of land across the country III will see the most landcover exposed at 45 km2. will be impacted, more than double compared to two It may disproportionately impact coastal areas in decades before. Regions III, IX, VI, and VIII will each see Luzon, such as Bulacan and Pampanga, where an increase of more than 20 km2 of land permanently there is land subsidence due to groundwater activity. inundated by rising sea levels versus 2040. Figure 4.2.6.1 Projected inundated land cover (km2) due to sea level rise by 2040 and by 2060 Adaptation Priorities Wind patterns and tropical cyclones and pluvial flooding are also among the climatic impact-drivers that may threaten land use and human settlements. More than 80% of land (180,000 km2) is projected to be exposed to at least one Category 4 or Category 5 tropical cyclone in both the 2030 decade and 2050 decade, particularly in the north and east where there is more cyclone activity. Among most cyclone-prone regions, more than 90% of closed forests in Region II and Region VII are projected to be exposed. In Region V, more than 90% of grassland is also projected to be exposed to cyclones. 280 Quantitative climate impacts outlined in this chapter are projected based on climate models developed as part of the National Adaptation Plan process. Detailed methodology for climate models per sector can be viewed on Appendix 2 – Land Use and Human Settlements 281 Pluvial, fluvial and extreme sea level-driven floods are modelled on a 10-year return period, represented by flood heights with a 10% chance of occurring in a year 216 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 4.2.6.2 % of land cover exposed to wind patterns and tropical cyclones in 2030 decade (left) Figure 4.2.6.3 Heatmap of land cover types exposed to wind patterns and tropical cyclones in 2030 decade for select cyclone-prone regions (below) Adaptation Priorities Additionally, more than 55% of land is projected to be exposed to pluvial flooding in the 2030 decade, impacting about 170,000 km2 of land. Particularly exposed regions are projected to include CAR (74%), Region II (67%), Region IV-A (66%), and Region V (66%). Areas in Luzon may also experience the most pluvial flooding due to inadequate drainage systems to meet the projected precipitation. An estimated 11 million residential homes will be exposed to pluvial flooding in this decade, particularly in CAR, where 70% of residential assets are projected to be exposed. Figure 4.2.6.4 % of land cover exposed to pluvial flooding in 2030 decade 217 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Extreme sea levels are also among the most When considering priority adaptation solutions for damaging to human settlements. While fewer the sector, actions must be taken to protect the most residential homes are vulnerable to extreme sea levels vulnerable populations—low-income communities compared to other climatic impact-drivers, the magnitude residing along coastlines, informal settlements, of damage caused by flooding is notably higher. In 2030, persons with disabilities and indigenous peoples. PHP67 billion of annualized damage to residential assets Action must be taken to include economically is projected due to extreme sea levels. disadvantaged populations residing in areas prone to Exposure of land and human settlements to these flooding, cyclones, and other climate-related hazards due climatic impact-drivers may risk widespread destruction, to limited housing options and inadequate infrastructure. infrastructure damage, and displacement of communities. Additionally, indigenous communities have strong Looking at residential assets, an estimated PHP225 cultural ties to specific land areas, making it critical billion in annual damage is projected from exposure to to engage them in conversations to build long-term various climate risks. Consequently, the unpredictability resilience. Critical actions must address equity concerns of these occurrences presents heightened difficulties by prioritizing these communities in resilience strategies. for local government land use planners in adhering to pre-existing plans, as they can undermine land suitability for a specific purpose. Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Land Use and Human Settlements Grounded on national policy anchors and existing 2. Adaptive capacities of communities improved, programs related to this sector 282, the adaptation theme and resilient, inclusive, decent, and affordable for Land Use and Human Settlements is Data-Driven human settlements achieved. This outcome Land Use & Settlements: Conventionalizing Robust, focuses on empowering and safeguarding Evidence-Based Planning. vulnerable and disadvantaged populations by Three (3) priority outcomes underpin this sector: increasing the participation of local leaders, women, youth, and other marginalized sectors 1. Data-driven, climate-focused land use, and to participate in resiliency-building programs. urban planning. This outcome focuses on However, for these sectors to be involved in these activating collaborative and interconnected interventions, it is necessary for national and local risk-based planning and monitoring of land use actors to provide communities with revitalized across vertical and horizontal administrative housing programs and access to basic services areas. To enable this, the build-up of climate Adaptation Priorities for their own resilience. data at local levels is critical. Enabling access 3. Transformative and gender-responsive multi- to dependable data will empower local land use level climate governance activated. This and urban planning professionals. They will be outcome focuses on ensuring sufficient capacity able to proactively plan to enhance the resilience and capability for climate action at all levels. of existing settlements with effective solutions, Beyond capacitating the adaptation agenda, this while clearly understanding the most affected outcome aims towards activating a coordinated, areas and events. participatory, gender-responsive, and inclusive governance of climate priorities in relation to land use and settlement planning. This means providing avenues for voices of disadvantaged populations to partake in shaping and implementing adaptation solutions. 282 Refer to Appendix 3 – Land Use and Human Settlements to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 218 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Strategies for Land Use and Human Settlements Outcome 1: Data-driven, climate-focused land use and urban planning Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DHSUD, DOST DILG, NEDA, DENR, NAMRIA, CCC Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Ensure access to Develop an accessible, interoperable, Immediate High comprehensible, open, and centralized database of climate (0-3 years) and shared climate information for settlement planning, information starting with providing policy support to capacitate LGUs, academe, and other contributors to share and access climate data (e.g., GHG emissions, biodiversity assessments and geohazard assessments). Enhance capacity Deepen understanding and technical Immediate High development efforts capacity of LGUs to be able to (0-3 years) and funding for LGUs develop their CDRAs through to develop local climate necessary tools and platforms (digital, assessments (e.g., non-digital) and simplified guides to Climate and disaster risk tie to national climate action plans. assessment) Enhance capacity Simplify guides and increase Medium-term High support to LGUs to engagement with LGUs to determine (3-6 years) mainstream CDRA into implications of CDRA to local land local Comprehensive use plans (e.g., priority decision Adaptation Priorities Land Use Plans areas based on risk evaluation, (CLUPs) policy interventions / options with emphasis on Risk Management options, analysis of land supply and suitability-based climate change, and possible impacts on the severity and frequency of natural hazards). 219 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Mainstream Mainstream nature-based solutions Medium-term Medium nature-based solutions and resilience-focused urban (3-6 years) and resilience-focused planning and design urban planning and design Accelerate Implement programs under the NSS Long-term Medium implementation of and NCRMF for improved population (6+ years) current policies in and urban planning, including relation to land use the establishment of a database and urban planning system for all human settlement and climate risks assets and capital, bridging gaps in (e.g., National climate risk information, tools, and Spatial Strategies, methodologies, and accelerating National Climate climate risk evaluation at local levels. Risk Management Framework) Outcome 2: Increased adaptive capacities of communities towards resilience and achieved resilient, inclusive, decent, and affordable human settlements Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DHSUD, DILG DOF, DENR, DOST, DOH, DPWH, DOTR, CCC Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Review and revise Incentivize green and circular Immediate Medium existing guidelines economy principles in housing (0-3 years) Adaptation Priorities (e.g., Green Building programs and housing value chains at Code, Batas Pambansa all levels (national, local, homeowner 220, PD 957) to associates) while updating the improve standards and relevant guidelines to incorporate incorporate green and gender-responsive and climate and resilient technologies disaster-resilient strategies. Ensure inclusivity and Ensure systems and infrastructure Medium-term High strengthen reliability of (i.e., communications) are resilience- (3-6 years) early warning systems proofed to withstand climate hazards, and resilience of especially for communities living in infrastructure in relation geographically isolated areas. to hazardous climate events 220 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Strengthen the capacity Adopt a needs-based approach Medium-term Medium of stakeholders to in providing capacity training (3-6 years) understand, decide, and development for community and act on warning participation in relation to hazardous messages and forecasts climate events. Knowledge building on Conduct training and capacity Medium-term Medium sustainable community building activities to build knowledge (3-6 years) and housing design on green and sustainable housing and community-based design and community-based disaster preparedness protection, particularly around CCA-DRR, (e.g., biomimicry in urban design). Outcome 3: Activated transformative and gender-responsive multi-level climate governance Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DHSUD, DILG, DOF NEDA, DICT, Philippine Space Agency, DOST, DPWH, DOTR, CCC, CHED, Higher Academic Institutions Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Strengthen inter-LGU Facilitate best practice sharing Immediate Medium collaboration and among LGUs, particularly utilizing (0-3 years) inclusive participatory LGUs that have already successfully planning implemented climate programs as resources for other LGUs. Establish formal Establish linkages with local Immediate High Adaptation Priorities coordination platforms universities and state colleges that (0-3 years) between local can provide access to localized universities and data and research and/or provide state colleges for capability support to land use and climate action urban planning. Establish formal Encourage PPPs and cross-sector Medium-term Medium PPP mechanisms collaboration in the creation, review, (3-6 years) and platforms and update of local land use plans and urban settlement planning. Increase access to PSF Increase access to local and Medium-term Medium and other international climate finance, in (3-6 years) climate finance particular, investments for social preparation and capacity building for stakeholder groups. 221 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050

4.2.7 Livelihoods and Industries Overview of Livelihoods and Industries For example, despite many businesses turning to digital in the Philippines tools over the pandemic, manufacturing businesses continue to have low technology utilization, due to high Livelihoods and Industries is a key pillar to the cost of technologies, lack of infrastructure, absence of sustainable economic and social development of skilled employees, and lack of management knowledge. the Philippines. In the context of the NAP, livelihoods These challenges will equally underlie future efforts for and industries refers to key economic sectors and the climate adaptation. employment associated with these key sectors. The Philippines envisions a revitalized industries sector, with Within services, which includes tourism and professional focus on expanding the domestic market and supplier services, the sector continues to be dominated by base, moving up the value chain, and enhancing low-paying jobs concentrated in low-skills domestic linkages across sectors. For services, the Philippines services. Constraints to increasing productivity include envisions a shift from its current low productivity level lack of access to reliable and advanced information to become a modern, productive, and resilient global and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure, leader providing higher value-adding and differentiated lack of access to markets and capital, and mismatch services283. From an economic perspective, industries in skills and lack of skilled talent for niche job roles. and services provide a significant portion of employment Ultimately, businesses will be challenged to consider opportunities for Filipinos. Provided that a large climate resilience in their plans as resources will focus portion of the population relies on informal and low- to on recovery and immediate growth. medium-skilled work, strengthening resilience in this Climate Change Impacts sector can lead to sustainable employment opportunities on Livelihoods and Industries and income generation, especially in less developed Two key considerations are focal to the discussions areas in the country. on climate change impacts on Livelihoods and From a social perspective, diversified industries Industries. First, resilience in key industries in the can contribute to community resilience and social Philippines must be built to protect the country’s stability. More importantly, in line with the Philippines’ economic and social stability amidst increasing climate focus to improve accessibility of micro, small, and hazards. Focus must be placed on climate adaptation medium enterprises (MSMEs) to a dynamic science, priorities, to protect key industries that contribute heavily technology, and innovation ecosystem, supporting to our GDP285, particularly, Manufacturing (17.2%), local entrepreneurs fosters a culture of innovation and Tourism (6.2%) and Professional Services (6.1%)286. Adaptation Priorities encourages social mobility. In this regard, we protect livelihoods of over 12 million Today, industries and services continue to recover Filipinos287 who rely on these industries. from COVID-19 slowdowns284. In the first half of 2022, economic recovery has become more broad-based as many industry sub-sectors have surpassed pre-pandemic performance. As a result, employment has also rebounded given the sustained economic momentum. However, certain challenges continue to face this sector. 283 Refer to Appendix 3 – Land Use and Human Settlements to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 284 National Economic and Development Authority. (2023). Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. In National Economic and Development Authority. Retrieved August 14, 2023, from https://pdp.neda.gov.ph/philippine-development-plan-2023-2028/ 285 Agriculture is also a key industry contributing 9% of Philippine GDP, and is covered as a separate priority sector under the National Adaptation Plan 286 Labor Force Survey. (2023). [Dataset]. Philippine Statistics Authority. https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/labor-force-survey 287 2021 MSME Statistics. (2021). [Dataset] Department of Trade and Industry. https://www.dti.gov.ph/resources/msme-statistics/ 222 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Second, more than 95% of establishments in the Philippines are MSMEs288. MSMEs often operate with limited financial and technical resources compared to larger corporations, and as such have fewer capacities to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, technology, and adaptation measures. In addition, many MSMEs rely heavily on informal labor with limited access to social The tourism sector, which is a major source of protection, making them more susceptible to income employment, is vulnerable to sea-level rise and changing losses during climate-related disruptions. Therefore, it weather patterns, impacting coastal communities will be critical for adaptation priorities to equip MSMEs that rely heavily on tourism-related activities for their with the proper resources and regulatory support to be livelihoods. Increased temperatures can also impact able to plan for climate resilience. tourism workers, who are disproportionately exposed to Climate change has wide-ranging impacts on key outdoor environments. industries, in turn impacting livelihoods of Filipinos. In the professional services sector, waterlogged areas For example, in the manufacturing sector, critical industry from extreme rainfall and tropical storms can cause infrastructure can be inundated or damaged by extreme temporary closures, impacting temporary or permanent weather events, leading to disruptions in production loss of livelihoods for service workers. and supply chains. As a result, economic losses and The table below highlights some of these decreased manufacturing output will occur. negative impacts: Table 4.2.7.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers on Livelihoods & Industries Impact on cultural heritage, population displacement Climate Impact-Driver and migration Sea level rise and Inundated industry enablers and infrastructure extreme sea levels Manufacturing facilities located in coastal areas are at risk of damage from storm surges, flooding, and coastal erosion. Disruptions in production and Adaptation Priorities supply chains can result in economic losses and decreased manufacturing output. Climate hazards damage infrastructure that services, such as hospitality, retail, and transportation, are reliant upon. For example, sea level rise contributes to the erosion of coastlines and loss of beaches, which are significant attractions for tourists. This reduces the appeal and competitiveness of coastal destinations, impacting tourism revenue. Loss of livelihood As a result of these events, Filipinos relying on these industry activities may lose their homes, access to livelihoods, and cultural ties to their land. Vulnerable communities are particularly at risk due to lesser social mobility and limited ability to recover. 288 2021 MSME Statistics. (2021). [Dataset] Department of Trade and Industry. https://www.dti.gov.ph/resources/msme-statistics/ 223 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Increased temperature Reduced productivity across industries and droughts For manufacturing, higher temperatures increase the demand for cooling289, resulting in increased energy consumption and operational costs for manufacturing facilities. Research suggests that, on average, a one degree increase in ambient temperature can result in a 0.5 to 8.5% increase in electricity demand290. Within services, particularly tourism, higher temperatures can lead to heat-related health issues, impacting the well-being of workers and affecting productivity. Extreme precipitation Damaged industry enablers and infrastructure, reduced incomes Heavy rains and flooding can disrupt transportation routes, causing delays and interruptions in the delivery of raw materials and finished goods, Wind patterns and disrupting supply chain, and affecting manufacturing operations. tropical cyclones Waterlogged areas from extreme rainfall and tropical storms can result in temporary closures or reduced customer traffic for businesses in the service sector. Restaurants, hotels, and retail establishments in flood-prone areas experience reduced customers and disruptions in operations. Increased temperatures and droughts are projected to impact labor productivity in these key sectors291,292. PHP36 billion in productivity losses is projected for the manufacturing industry while an additional PHP2 billion in productivity losses is projected for professional services resulting from extreme heat in the 2030 decade. Within manufacturing, labor productivity in Region IV-A, Region III, and NCR will be most impacted. This correlation is aligned provided majority of manufacturing activities are concentrated within these regions. Meanwhile, within professional services, labor productivity in NCR and Adaptation Priorities Region VII will be most impacted. 289 Cooling through creation of green spaces or other nature-based solutions as opposed to airconditioning 290 World Bank Group & Asian Development Bank. (2021). Climate Risk Country Profile - Philippines. In World Bank. Retrieved August 14, 2023, from https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/. 291 Labor productivity losses for tourism has not been quantified as workers are subsumed across various industries (e.g., wholesale & retail trade, agriculture, forestry and fishery, real estate activities, etc.). It is worth noting that many workers in the tourism industry, especially in nature tourism, are exposed to extreme heat due to the outdoor nature of work. 292 Quantitative climate impacts outlined in this chapter are projected based on climate models developed as part of the National Adaptation Plan process. Detailed methodology for climate models per sector can be viewed on Appendix 2 and

Appendix 3—Livelihood and Industries 224 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Figure 4.2.7.1 Value of labor productivity loss per region in the 2030 decade and 2050 decade for Manufacturing In the 2050 decade, productivity losses for manufacturing and professional services can reach, in one region alone, as high as PHP31 billion (e.g. Region IV-A) and PHP2.5 billion (e.g. NCR), respectively. Like in the 2030 decade, industry hubs are projected to be most impacted. Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.2.7.2 Value of labor productivity loss per region in the 2030 decade and 2050 decade for Professional Services Among the various CIDs, exposure to wind Within the national context, the total exposure of patterns and tropical cyclones is among the key industry infrastructure is attributed significantly to climate risks that threaten critical infrastructure exposure of infrastructure in Region IV-A (25%), Region across key industries293. Overall, 5% of key industry III (18%), and the National Capital Region (13%), owing infrastructure is projected to be exposed to at least one to the concentration of industry hubs in these areas. Category 4 or Category 5 cyclone in the decade of 2030. Annualized damage of infrastructure could potentially reach PHP22 billion in damages per year due to cyclones and extreme winds. 293 Socioeconomic impact modelling considers select points of interest for key industries: Manufacturing: Warehouses and factories; Tourism: Hotels, restaurants, tourism spots and religion spots; Professional services: Banks, commercial buildings, and offices 225 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Of the projected damages per year, PHP16 billion is attributed to damages to professional services infrastructure, while PHP4.5 billion is attributed to damages to manufacturing infrastructure. Although most manufacturing and professional services infrastructure is constructed to endure powerful winds and heavy rainfall, prolonged exposure to such occurrences can gradually erode their resilience. Furthermore, it is imperative to consider the facilities owned by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) within these industries. These enterprises often face greater challenges in terms of repairing and recuperating from such damages. Adaptation plans must also exercise vigilance In addition, exposure of manufacturing infrastructure concerning tourism infrastructure (5%), as it often (6%) and professional services infrastructure (5%) to exhibits a heightened degree of fragility compared cyclones and extreme winds can result in significant to other infrastructure. Many tourist destinations are and wide-ranging impacts on both operational efficiency characterized by their ecological and natural attributes, and economic stability. Beyond physical damage, rendering them inherently susceptible and prone to production and supply chain disruptions, equipment loss, vulnerabilities. Figure 4.2.7.3 shows a region by region and workforce disruption also threaten the stability of view of the extent of cyclone exposure for industry-related this sector. infrastructure, in number of infrastructure exposed. Adaptation Priorities Figure 4.2.7.3 Exposed points of interest across various industries in the 2030 decade Beyond damage to industry infrastructure and consequent disruptions in operations, it is imperative to consider the impact to livelihoods and well-being of Filipino workers. The continuity of industries is intrinsically linked to the stability of employment opportunities, income streams, and social support systems that sustain the workforce. The ripple effects of disrupted operations can extend to families, communities, and the broader economy, underlining the significance of safeguarding not only industrial assets but also the economic security and dignity of the labor force. 226 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Livelihoods and Industries In line with the Philippines’ long-term vision to revitalize industry and reinvigorate services294, the adaptation theme for Livelihoods & Industries is Embrace Resilience: Fortifying Industry for Economic Prosperity. Three priority outcomes underpin this strategy: 1. Key industry infrastructure and production facilities protected. This outcome focuses on implementing comprehensive risk assessments to identify potential vulnerabilities across critical industry-related infrastructure. Protection of these key infrastructures ensures the continuity and Where there are co-benefits between mitigation resilience of essential industries that underpin the and adaptation, consideration of opportunities for Philippine economy. green jobs is also a focus area. 2. Due diligence to occupational safety and 3. Continuity of industry operations and hazard regulations and social protections productivity sustained amidst climate risks. enhanced for workers in the formal and This outcome focuses on ensuring business informal economy. This outcome focuses continuity and safeguarding operations (e.g., on enacting adaptive strategies to safeguard supply chains) from the impacts of climate-related workers’ well-being and livelihoods from hazards, especially for MSMEs. Second-level the impacts of climate-related hazards. effects of climate hazards are expected, including Reviewing worker practices and regulations susceptibility of supply chains to climate-related should especially focus on MSME workers disruptions, which in turn may lead to revenue who may not have the resources to losses and reduced production outputs. resist and adapt to climate-related risks. Priority Adaptation Strategies for Livelihoods and Industries Outcome 1: Key industry infrastructure and production facilities protected Adaptation Priorities Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DTI, DoT DPWH, NEDA, DILG, DENR Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Standardize assessment Provide industry players with a suite Immediate Medium of climate risks of tools (e.g., clear guidelines and (0-3 years) across key industry requirements, access to climate infrastructure. impact data, etc.) to partake in climate risk assessments to identify potential climate risks on end-to-end value chain; capacity building needed to support MSMEs. 294 Refer to Appendix 3 – Livelihoods and Industries to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the NAP process 227 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Broaden roll-out of Widen reach of incentive mechanisms Immediate High incentivization programs that encourage private sector to (0-3 years) to reinforce critical include climate de-risking as part infrastructure at risk. of their business priorities; ensure provision of support mechanisms for MSMEs. Mainstream use of Reinforce infrastructure with Medium-term High climate-resilient design climate-resilient design, including (3-6 years) and nature-based nature-based solutions in compliance solutions, where with environmental laws to mitigate possible, among the impacts of climate hazards and industry players. ensure continuity of operations. Activate and widen Enhance access to climate finance Medium-term High access to funding mechanisms, such as climate funds, (3-6 years) sources for public and grants, loans, and sustainable private sector to invest in finance, to support climate adaptation green infrastructure. initiatives across industries. Outcome 2: Due diligence in occupational safety and hazard regulations and worker social protections enhanced for climate-resilience of workers in the formal and informal economy. Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DOLE, DTI TESDA, NEDA, DepEd, CHED Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Develop sector-specific Foster partnerships between Immediate Medium guidelines for government bodies, industry (0-3 years) Adaptation Priorities treatment and handling associations, and private enterprises of workers in relation to to review regulations to protect climate change. workers from climate-related risks, such as worker safety during extreme weather events, and develop industry-specific guidelines for the protection of workers. Incorporate climate Integrate climate resilience topics Medium-term Medium resiliency topics into organizational learning programs (3-6 years) into organizational and trade / vocational curriculums to learning programs and educate workers on protection against academic curriculums. climate hazards in the workplace. 228 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Enhance capacity Provide training and capacity-building Medium-term High building and training of programs to enhance the (3-6 years) climate-resilient skills knowledge and skills of workers on (e.g., programs under climate-resilient practices, including National Green Jobs reskilling workers from industries Human Resources phased out due to climate change. Development Plan). Ensure funding and Implement programs to provide Medium-term High capacity to activate support and assistance to (3-6 years) social protection for individuals who may experience impacted workers (e.g., job loss or economic disruptions DOLE DILEEP). due to climate-related impacts or the transition to a climate-resilient economy. Outcome 3: Industry operations and productivity continuity amidst climate risks is sustained. Implementing Lead agency: Supporting agencies: DTI DOLE, NEDA Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Scale awareness Educate industries on best-fit Immediate Medium programs to educate adaptation strategies (e.g., specific (0-3 years) industries on to industry context) to deepen best-practice adaptation understanding of climate change strategies. impacts. Require adaptation Mandate adaptation plan Immediate Medium planning among private development to assess and address (0-3 years) sector businesses, climate risks, supported by clear Adaptation Priorities including continuity guidelines and access to climate data planning and disaster for decision-making. response plans. Create avenues to Create nationwide programs Medium term High allow for value chain to support diversification and (3-6 years) integration and redundancy in supply chains to market linkages for minimize the risk of disruptions small scale producers. caused by climate-related events, particularly through involving MSMEs. Create incentives for Create formal incentive platforms Medium term High private investment in supported by strengthened policies (3-6 years) nature-based solutions. and simplified mechanisms for private sector access, to encourage adoption of nature-based adaptation solutions. 229 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 4.2.8 Energy, Transport, and Communications Overview of Energy, Transport, and Communications Infrastructure Systems in the Philippines Critical services such as Energy, Transport, and Communications systems, which make up the remaining key physical infrastructure295 in IPCC AR6, are vital components to enabling socioeconomic development, highlighted by their inclusion within Within energy, this can be seen through the fact that the Philippine Development Plan (2023-2028). 5% percent of Filipino households still live without These infrastructures are drivers of economic growth— electricity296, pointing towards a network lacking in ensuring the efficient, uninterrupted operation across breadth. Compounding this is the expectation for industries, while enabling the production, distribution, national electricity consumption in 2040 to nearly and consumption of goods and services. quadruple from 2019 numbers according to AmBisyon Energy systems propel residential, commercial, Natin 2040, while the Malampaya gas reserve, which industrial, transport, agricultural, and forestry sectors supplies almost a third of electricity in Luzon, is facing to provide channels for the movement of goods and impending depletion297. Within transport, the mobility human resources, and communications systems of many Filipinos is hindered by the inadequacy of enable transfer of information and services, which in transportation facilities—inefficient, inconvenient turn facilitates trade and investment activities. Socially, transit systems, and poor last mile connectivity access to a reliable source of energy uplifts the quality of discourage private motorists from utilizing public mass life of communities by providing access to a wide array transportation, while many of the Philippines’ rail of services for well-being, such as lighting, cooking, and systems are operating in a state of overcapacity today, cooling. Accessible transport infrastructure enhances according to ADB298. Communications systems are no connectivity across the country, connecting rural exception to this—currently the nation has 164 towers areas to urban centers and improving access to basic per one million people, one of the lowest ratios in the services, such as education, healthcare, and markets. region. An additional 60,000 towers on top of the current Communication unlocks many of the same services as 27,000 are expected to be required by 2031 for unserved Adaptation Priorities transportation, and goes beyond, enabling virtual access and underserved communities299. to key systems and services. Challenges exist on the institutional plane as well, This sector presently faces a myriad of challenges with outdated policies and program implementation that impedes secure and reliable access to across the challenges hindering the improvement of the sector’s Philippines. The rapid growth of the Philippine population situation. The lack of available data also hinders alongside the expansion of demand per capita for services execution—for example, there is limited transport-related related to Energy, Transport, and Communications data, largely driven by a lack of regular survey and data infrastructure systems has contributed to issues collection initiatives, that has caused difficulty in the with capacity across all three infrastructure systems. implementation of the National Transport Policy300. 295 Other key physical infrastructure – water & sanitation, waste, built form, are covered in other sectors in this NAP & NCCAP 296 Department of Energy. (2022). 2021 Philippine Energy Situationer 297 National Economic and Development Authority. (2016). AmBisyon Natin 2040 298 ADB. (2021). Accessibility Analysis of the South Commuter Railway Project of the Philippines 299 ADB (2022). ADB, Tiger Infrastructure Sign $40 Million Loan to Support Rural Connectivity in Southern Philippines 300 National Economic and Development Authority. (2022). Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 230 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Climate Change Impacts on Energy, Transport, Rising temperature, coupled with the growing population and Communication Infrastructure Systems and digitalization is expected to influence demand across Energy, Transport, and Communications services— additionally, increased temperature will likely lead to less Climate change will further exacerbate efficient hardware systems. This is particularly true for vulnerabilities within the Energy, Transport, and Energy systems, evidenced by past incidences such Communications sector, as it impacts both the as the 2019 heatwave, which caused shortages due infrastructure of these services and influence the to reduced cooling capacity of the Calaca Coal-fired demand profile for services across these systems. power plant304, or the 2015 El Niño event, which reduced Energy, Transport, and Communications infrastructure hydroelectric power output and necessitating the are inherently vulnerable to climate hazards, but implementation of power rationing305. poor construction and placement in vulnerable If left unattended, intensifying climate change will areas exacerbates this further. According to the continue to negatively impact Energy, Transport, ND-GAIN index301, the Philippines is among the top and Communications infrastructure. For example, tercile of countries in terms of infrastructure vulnerability extreme events such as storm surges, typhoons, and to climate change, and for transportation, the WEF floods are projected to become more severe due to ranked the Philippines’ road, seaport, airport, and climate change, resulting in the inundation of railroad infrastructure quality amongst the bottom infrastructure from sea level rise or damage from quintile globally302. The results of this vulnerability flooding or landslides, likely leading to disruptions in have been witnessed time and time again historically, service provision. Increased temperature and drought such as during Typhoon Odette in 2021, where in over are expected to influence the demand profile for a third of seaports were put out of operations and services provided by these systems, while potentially access to communication services was hampered reducing efficiency of infrastructure. Beyond these across multiple municipalities for six weeks, disrupting impacts, the table below outlines the adverse effects supply chains, logistics, while hampering disaster relief of different CIDs across the Energy, Transport, and recovery operations303. and Communications sector. Table 4.2.7.1. Impacts of climatic impact-drivers on Livelihoods & Industries Impact on cultural heritage, population displacement Climate Impact-Driver and migration Adaptation Priorities Increased temperature Less efficient systems and vulnerable infrastructure and Drought Higher temperatures lead to increased demand for cooling, both across consumers and for critical infrastructure themselves, such as in powerplants and data centers, which puts pressure on electricity supply. This results in higher energy consumption during heatwaves and can strain the power grid. Additionally, the increased demand for cooling from infrastructure itself, coupled with the availability of cooling water potentially decreasing, may reduce the efficiency and performance of power plants and data centers. This can result in reduced output or the need for operational adjustments. 301 The University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (2022). Notre Dame, United States. Available at: https://gain. nd.edu/our-work/country-index/ 302 World Economic Forum, Global Alliance for Trade Facilitation. (2016). The Global Enabling Trade Report 2016 303 National Economic and Development Authority. (2016). AmBisyon Natin 2040 304 National Economic and Development Authority. (2022). Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 305 Teves, C. (2019). El Niño can force Mindanao power rationing. Philippine News Agency 231 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Increased temperature Damaged infrastructure and disrupted service and Drought Increased temperature can cause transmission lines to expand, sag, or overload due to increased electrical resistance. These constraints can lead to power disruptions and impact the reliability of electricity supply. Increased temperature also poses significant risks to the transport infrastructure sector in the Philippines, particularly in terms of road surfaces, railway tracks, and airport operations. High temperatures can cause thermal expansion of pavement materials, resulting in pavement deformations and cracks. Moreover, extreme heat can affect railway tracks, causing buckling and disruptions in train services. Sea level rise and Damaged infrastructure and disrupted services extreme sea levels Rising sea levels raise the risk of coastal flooding, which can damage or inundate critical infrastructure such as fossil fuels facilities (e.g., oil refineries, oil depos/terminals, fuel stations including natural gas processing plants and coal mines), power plants, substations, and transmission and distribution lines within energy, coastal roads, bridges, and seaports within transportation, and towers, cables, and base equipment for communications. This damage could result in the disruption of services, especially if infrastructure impacted is a critical node within network. In addition, as sea levels rise, saline water can infiltrate freshwater sources and aquifers, threatening the water supply needed for thermal power plant operations. Saltwater intrusion can corrode equipment and compromise the efficiency of cooling systems, leading to operational challenges. Extreme precipitation Damaged infrastructure and disrupted services Extreme precipitation events pose a substantial risk across Energy, Transport, and Communications infrastructure systems in the Philippines, Adaptation Priorities particularly through the occurrence of floods, landslides, and associated damages. These events can lead to road closures, bridge collapses, flooding of substations, ducts, cabinets, and cables, potentially leading to the disruption of services. Wind patterns and Damaged infrastructure and disrupted services tropical cyclones Wind patterns and tropical cyclones can cause extensive damage to across energy, transport, and communications infrastructure systems, including transmission lines, distribution networks, substations, and turbines within Energy; roads, bridges, ports, and airports for Transport; and aerial components of Communications network such as poles, exposed wires and cables, towers, and masts. Damage to these can lead to disruptions in services. 232 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Outcomes for Energy, Transport, and Communications Grounded on national policies and existing programs related to this sector307, the adaptation theme for Energy, Transport, and Communication is Protect Critical Infrastructure Systems: Secure and Sustain Access and Connectivity Three priority outcomes underpin this strategy: 1. Outcome 1: Comprehensive planning and 2. Sufficient capacity of energy, transport, and response mechanisms established across communication infrastructure systems to energy, transport, and communication provide goods and services to meet evolving infrastructure systems. This outcome focuses demand induced by climate change. This on building structural and geographic resilience outcome focuses on addressing changing into infrastructure systems aligned with policies demands for critical infrastructure services and planning procedures, while implementing caused by climate change through scaled up and Adaptation Priorities monitoring and response mechanisms to diversified networks and systems. To attain this minimize disruptions. To achieve this outcome, outcome, existing networks must be bolstered, regular baselining and data collection exercises and alternative systems should be explored to aid must be performed to inform policies, and in de-risking communities’ access to the services sufficient government support must be provided provided by these infrastructure systems. for initiatives. Prioritizing adaptation strategies that ensure resilient, sufficient, and sustainable energy, transport, and communication infrastructure will not only ensure the security and sustainability of the services stemming these infrastructure systems, but also an improvement in the qualities of life across the country’s population. Resiliency must be embedded across the whole planning, construction, and response processes of these infrastructure systems, while applying regional and hazard specific lenses to trends identified through climate analytics models to ensure the secure distribution and access across all subsectors. Refer to Appendix 3 – Energy, Transport, and Communications to see list of policies and programs referenced as part of the 307 NAP process 233 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Priority Adaptation Strategies for Energy, Transport, and Communications Outcome 1: Comprehensive planning and response mechanisms established across energy, transport, and communication infrastructure systems. Implementing Lead agencies: Supporting agencies: DOE, DPWH, DOTr, DICT DOST, DENR, DILG, NCIP Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Upgrade engineering Updating engineering design Immediate Medium design codes for critical codes and standards for critical (0-3 years) infrastructure. infrastructure to account for climate change impacts Regulate and enforce Implementing and improving building Immediate Medium critical infrastructure codes and land use regulations such (0-3 years) standards based on as the National Land Use Act and land zoning and risk National Building Code, informed by assessment. thorough risk assessments, to ensure that vital infrastructure is strategically located and designed to withstand natural hazards Incorporate climate Strategic determination of efficient Immediate High risk into planning road routes and optimal locations (0-3 years) of roadways and for transportation hubs considering transportation hubs climate risks alongside regular factors Integrate energy Ensure new energy infrastructure Immediate Medium Adaptation Priorities infrastructure planning situated in best suited areas based (0-3 years) and site selection. in shifting climate patterns, building upon the Philippine Energy Resiliency Policy, and the National Energy Contingency Plan Climate-proof Implementing green and grey flood/ Medium-term High critical infrastructure landslide protection measures, and (3-6 years) wind-proofing elevated infrastructure transportation infrastructure, supporting initiatives such as the Asset Preservation Program of DPWH, or the Energy Resiliency Policy of DOE 234 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Outcome 2: Sufficient capacity of energy, transport, and communication infrastructure systems to provide goods and services to meet evolving demand induced by climate change. Implementing Lead agencies: Supporting agencies: DOE, DPWH, DOTr, DICT DOST, DENR, NCIP Indicative Key Implementation Capital- Brief Description Strategies Priority Intensiveness Perform R&D Referencing natural capital Immediate Medium Energy to understand accounts, energy flow accounts (0-3 years) energy flow can provide indicators on energy accounts. efficiency in terms of the flows of energy inputs to the economy, flows of energy within the economy, and flows to the environment as residuals. Install Energy storage systems, microgrid, Immediate High infrastructure natural gas generators strategically (0-3 years) to ensure distributed across vulnerable areas continuous and communities, supporting energy supply the Energy Resiliency Policy to remote and and the National Energy vulnerable areas. Contingency Plan Enforce policies Enforcing alternative energy Immediate High to encourage sources for suppliers, and (0-3 years) alternative energy efficiency regulations for energy sources consumers, leveraging items and energy such as the Energy Efficiency Adaptation Priorities efficiency. and Conservation Act, as well as the Feed-in Tariff System which incentivizes investors and developers to put up renewable energy projects Encourage Intelligent electrical grids allowing Medium-term High and facilitate efficient energy distribution, (3-6 years) investment in real-time monitoring and response smart grids. to climate-related disruptions 235 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Improve Implementing alternative Immediate High Transport infrastructure transportation infrastructure (0-3 years) to enhance improvement projects such as inclusivity of expanded and improved bike lane alternative systems, pedestrian walkways, transport railway systems, building on systems. policies such as the Philippine Bicycle Act Incentivize new Encouraging intelligent Medium-term High technologies transportation systems, (3-6 years) and design electronic vehicles, etc., to avoid innovations within overdependence on a single public and private source, by strengthening initiatives transport such as the Republic Act (RA) 11697 or the Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act which seeks to develop the Philippine electric vehicle (EV) industry via mechanisms such as tax incentives Invest in mass Directing investments towards Medium-term High transport and the improvement and expansion (3-6 years) transit-oriented of mass transport networks development. and promoting transit-oriented development, expanding on existing programs such as KATUPARAN or the Kalsada Tungo sa Paliparan, Riles at Daungan Program Adaptation Priorities Augment Expanding both conventional Medium-term High Communications communication infrastructure (fixed broadband, (3-6 years) infrastructure to fiber, mobile networks) as well strengthen digital as alternative sources of digital connectivity. connectivity, such as broadband satellites to meet general demand while providing access to remote communities 236 Bangui Wind Farm, Bangui, Ilocos Norte 05 NAP Implementation National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 5. NAP Implementation The NAP implementation framework, as shown in Figure 5.1.1, is guided by international frameworks, guidelines, and adaptation platforms. These include the Cancun Adaptation Framework, UNFCCC guidelines, and NAP Global Network, and the Philippines’ unique national circumstances, overall policy environment, and in-country process on adaptation planning, investment programming, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. The NAP implementation framework follows a dynamic cycle with three phases—planning, implementation, and monitoring evaluation, accountability, and learning—and is supported by key cross-cutting enablers, which have been adapted from the NAP Global Network and lessons learned from international NAPs and expert inputs. Figure 5.1.1. NAP implementation framework308 The NAP implementation framework follows five (5) key guiding principles: 1. It is based on international guidelines and local priorities in the strategic framework. 2. It embraces a whole-of-nation approach, fostering collaboration across government and non- government entities, including local communities and diverse demographic groups. 3. It integrates with existing plans, policies, strategies, and mechanisms to prevent redundancy and incorporates adaptation into ongoing initiatives. 4. It calls for regular evidence-based review, rooted in local context and informed by the latest scientific knowledge. 5. It prioritizes a fair transition and inclusivity. This chapter of the NAP document assesses the current NAP Implementation state of key enablers, proposes enhancements, and outlines next steps. It presents a roadmap for adaptation and enabling action plans, including lead agencies and timelines. Finally, it offers an overview of developing San Juanico Bridge a comprehensive NAP MEAL strategy, drawing from national and global frameworks. 308 Based mainly on NAP process map from the NAP global network and key lessons synthesized from UNFCCC guidelines, Cancun Adaptation Framework, and the Philippines’ national circumstances 238 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 5.1 Key cross-cutting enablers The NAP implementation framework is supported by six key cross-cutting enablers: 1. Governance and Institutions 2. Stakeholder Engagement 3. Skills and Capacity-Building 4. Data and Knowledge Infrastructure 5. Technology and Innovation 6. Adaptation financing These key enablers are crucial for effective planning, implementation and monitoring, evaluation, accountability, and learning for the NAP. Each key enabler section covers the following topics: 1. Definition and purpose – A concise description and underscores the significance of each enabler 5.1.1 Enabler 1: Governance within the context of the NAP. and institutions 2. Key success factors – The vision of the NAP for each enabler, drawing from international Definition and Purpose guidelines and good practices. Governance and institutions refer to strategic 3. Starting point – Summary of the current state measures and arrangements to enable in the Philippines, encompassing vital issues government-level coordination and adaptation and areas with potential for improvement for integration into development processes. each enabler. 4. Action plan – Outline of actions proposed Governance and institutions have a key role in driving to operationalize the NAP. It is important to effective coordination, collaboration, and implementation acknowledge that these action plans are subject of the NAP across various government entities and to potential iterations over time as key learnings stakeholders. Additionally, improved governance and innovations are captured. will underpin the country’s collective effort to ensure long-term climate and disaster resilience and accelerate efforts to achieve the Philippines’ long-term vision as stated in Ambisyon Natin 2040. A well-coordinated and streamlined multi-level governance can more effectively address the needs of stakeholders. Local government units, in particular, are well-positioned to address the specific issues NAP Implementation and vulnerabilities of their respective constituents because of their knowledge and experience with the local communities. At the highest levels of governance, clear and concise goals and processes ease the implementation of the NAP. At the lower levels of governance, context-specific and tailor-fit solutions enhance the effectiveness of the NAP in their respective areas. 239 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Key success factors To fully operationalize the NAP, there are four key success factors under the governance and institutions enabler. 1. Well-defined roles and responsibilities to strengthen sense of ownership, commitment, and advocacy to adaptation present across government entities, especially for leaders. 2. Shared clear vision and objectives among government entities. 3. Adaptation lens integrated across government roles, responsibilities, and operations. 4. Institutional arrangements marked by resilient horizontal and vertical coordination are firmly established, while local government units (LGUs) are seamlessly integrated, empowered, and actively engaged in every facet of the NAP process. Starting point The Philippine government has consistently undertaken proactive measures to tackle climate change impacts at the national, local, and sectoral levels, as seen in Figure 5.1.1.1. This reflects a dedicated, country-wide approach encompassing both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Figure 5.1.1.1 Public policies and programs on climate change adaptation309 309 RA–Republic Act, DRRM–Disaster Risk Reduction and Management, NFSCC–National Framework Strategy on Climate NAP Implementation Change, CCAM–Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation, DBM–Department of Budget and Management, CCC–Climate Change Commission, JMC–Joint Memorandum Circular, PSF–Peoples’ Survival Fund, DILG–Department of Interior and Local Government, MC–Memorandum Circular, LCCAP–Local Climate Change Action Plan, CC–Climate Change, DRR–Disaster Risk Reduction, CLUP–Comprehensive Land Use Plan, EO-Executive Order, DRR-CCA–Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Change Adaptation, PDP–Philippine Development Plan, CDP–Comprehensive Development Plan, NDC– Nationally Determined Contributions. 240 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Roles & responsibilities of government entities in climate change agenda today Several government entities have a role to play in the NAP process (see table in Chapter 5 Appendix). The Climate Change Commission (CCC) takes the lead in coordinating, monitoring, and evaluating climate change-related activities. Executive departments and select national agencies are responsible for integrating adaptation within their respective disciplines. Local government units also play a crucial role by contributing localized knowledge and implementing adaptation actions. This interplay across and along government levels (i.e., horizontal, and vertical coordination) necessitates robust coordination mechanisms to be put in place to operationalize the NAP, foster cross-learning, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference and realize synergies. Relevant climate change-related policies, Current institutional arrangement of the NAP plans and strategy To kickstart the NAP process, the Philippines has Multiple climate change plans and strategies are created the National Steering Committee for the National currently in place (see table in Chapter 5 Appendix). Adaptation Plan (NAP-NSC) under the leadership of However, the presence of overlapping policies, plans, the Climate Change Commission (CCC). However, to and strategies necessitates an urgent assessment institutionalize the NAP process, the Philippines still and streamlining process to avoid disputes and ensure needs to define an optimal governance structure. Figure efficient implementation of the NAP. 5.1.1.2 illustrates the current institutional arrangements for the NAP in the Philippines. NAP Implementation Figure 5.1.1.2 Current institutional arrangements on the NAP 241 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Action plan To enable strong governance and institutions for adaptation in the long-term, the government of the Philippines is committed to the actions listed in Table 5.1.1.1. Table 5.1.1.1 Governance and institutions list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline310 GI 1 Define national level governing structure and coordinating mechanism Immediate for NAP implementation that is integrated and aligned with existing (0-3 years) adaptation mechanisms: Clearly define overall permanent governance mechanism to facilitate the NAP after NAP-NSC by: 1. Assigning a high-level entity to provide policy advice and decision-making. 2. Assigning a technical working group for projects, investments, and technical matters. 3. Assigning other key focal entities such as data office, finance focal point, sector-specific climate change adaptation focal points, representatives from vulnerable communities, etc. More clearly demarcate and detail roles and responsibilities of government units and institutions to avoid disputes and gaps (e.g., clear assignment of data and analytics roles and handoffs between CCC, DOST PAGASA, etc.) Establish coordination mechanisms to harmonize entities, foster synergies, prevent duplication, and strengthen cross-sectoral convergence in alignment with the PDP 2023-2028 (e.g., establishing working sessions between DILG, DOST, and NEDA to translate plans into local implementation actions) Conduct thorough stocktaking of existing plans, policies, and strategies to align the NAP with ongoing efforts and decomplexify climate change efforts (e.g., establishing the linkages between the NAP and other frameworks and plans such as NFSCC and NCCAP) GI 2 Define horizontal (sectoral) and vertical (LGU) integration strategy: Immediate Strongly embed sectoral entities and LGUs, leagues, and regional (0-3 years) development councils in permanent institutional arrangement to strengthen cross-sectoral convergence and enable adaptation localization, cross-LGU collaboration, and alignment of LGU priorities with national and sectoral priorities GI 3 Mainstream climate change adaptation into other policies and plans: Medium Integrate adaptation and resilience considerations into national planning term and enact policy reforms that encompass provisions aligned with climate (3-6 years) change adaptation and resilience. This entails undertaking a comprehensive assessment and streamlining of existing plans, policies, and strategies.(e.g., NAP Implementation Integrate resilience measures into existing Green Building Code) Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 310 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 242 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 GI 5 Create comprehensive risk management approach: Medium Develop and implement a comprehensive risk management approach to term reduce intersecting vulnerabilities and address complexities in managing (3-6 years) compounding and cascading risks posed by climate change across sectors as highlighted in the PDP 2023-2028. GI 6 Develop NAP governance and institutions assessment tools to enhance Medium adaptation enforcement: term Develop appropriate assessment tools such as environmental valuation (3-6 years) methodology to inform adaptation enforcement, decision-making, policy development, research and development, payment and incentive mechanisms, and other climate change-related endeavors. Additionally, establish a long-standing repository of climate-related goals and activities to ensure continuity amidst changing governance/leadership, including a method to hold units accountable despite leadership changes. Conclusion In conclusion, governance and institutions are pivotal in enabling the NAP process by establishing ownership, collaboration mechanisms, and linkages with existing plans, policies, and strategies. To drive this process, the Philippines has established the NAP-NSC to streamline and operationalize the NAP; however, this is an interim version and will be revised immediately. To push a more streamlined climate change agenda, the Philippines will identify the best governance mechanism that involves one high-level entity (e.g., CCAM-DRR or CCAB) and a streamlined technical working group for climate change. By enhancing governance and institutions, the Philippines aims to seamlessly integrate adaptation into its national blueprint, ensuring resilience and a sustainable future. 5.1.2 Enabler 2: Stakeholder engagement Definition and Purpose 2. Civil society organization bring perspectives Stakeholder engagement refers to socially from the different groups in civil society. Their inclusive efforts to engage key actors (local, specialized knowledge in their respective fields national, and international communities) to and experience with grassroots efforts make their operationalize the NAP process. collaboration with the government invaluable in Stakeholder engagement plays a pivotal role in achieving mobilizing collective efforts. climate equity among vulnerable groups, fostering 3. Academia and research institutions provide collaboration, enabling cross-learning based on differing technical expertise, technical assistance, experiences and perspectives, and optimizing synergies technological innovations, and knowledge on the among diverse autonomous groups in the Philippines, best available science. each with unique yet complementary strengths. 4. Local community organizations possess in- depth localized understanding and established 1. The private sector brings substantial industry relationships, working alongside community NAP Implementation experience, a network of national and members who offer vital first-hand insights. international partners, and development financial 5. The international community brings in expertise, institutions that could leverage adaptation finance external opportunities, and a wealth of other and investments. key learnings. 243 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 6. Vulnerable groups, including women and girls, children, youth, indigenous peoples, local communities, differently abled, senior citizens, MSMEs, academia, civil society, and the private sector provide essential perspectives and solutions for equitable adaptation outcomes, recognizing the importance of multi-generational engagement, particularly with the youth, to foster awareness, advocacy, and understanding in climate change adaptation. 7. Gender-focused organizations and advocates that work specifically on gender-related aspects of adaptation. 8. Experts or practitioners from varying disciplinary studies enable the development of a novel and inter-disciplinary approach to tackling adaptation. Key success factors To fully unlock the value of stakeholder engagement, three key success factors must be met as shown in the table below. These key success factors reflect the end state targeted by the NAP. 1. Embraces inclusivity, collaboration, transparency, and participation across government and non-government entities, guided by a whole-of-the-nation and whole-of-the-planet approach while aligning with locally led adaptation. 2. Special attention is directed towards highly vulnerable groups to guarantee equitable adaptation outcomes and capture diverse and valuable adaptations, insights and solutions. 3. Established roles, responsibilities, and engagement mechanisms for non-government stakeholders, tailored communication based on stakeholder needs, and a focus on meaningful engagement to ensure high-quality participation and effective outcomes. Starting point The crafting and implementation of the National When guided by a gender lens, stakeholder engagement Adaptation Plan (NAP) necessitates the incorporation of within the framework of NAP development becomes more the gender lens, recognizing the diverse experiences and robust and meaningful. Through a multi-stakeholder vulnerabilities that different genders face in the context approach among government agencies, gender-focused of climate change. This enables a crucial and valuable organizations and advocates with diverse voices perspective in understanding the unique impacts of and experiences, including those of women, climate change on women, girls, and gender minorities, indigenous communities, and marginalized groups, NAP Implementation and for devising inclusive strategies that address their stakeholders can co-create adaptation strategies that specific needs. are effective, sustainable, and responsive to varied Both the PDP 2023-2028 and CCC Resolution No. needs and priorities, while advancing gender equality 2019-002 highlight the need to ensure convergence and social justice. of gender and climate change, and to strengthen Currently, there is a need for enhanced coordination gender-based approaches in the formulation and and stakeholder engagement in the implementation of implementation of all climate change plans, programs existing plans, policies, and strategies in the Philippines. and initiatives in the public sector. 244 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The voluntary and non-incentivized nature of involvement may result in limited quality of participation of vulnerable groups and communities (e.g., existing policies such as RA 10174 only encourages rather than mandate or incentivize community participation), some of whom may lack sufficient awareness regarding available spaces and platforms for participation. To overcome these challenges, the government of the Philippines will identify key stakeholders, bridge engagement gaps, provide necessary tools and programs, raise awareness, incentivize participation, and establish clear engagement mechanisms throughout the entire NAP process. Additionally, gender mainstreaming will be done through the existing Gender Equality and Women Empowerment Plan and the Gender and Development (GAD) agenda. Most recently, the CCC has formed contact groups and networks through its ACCELERATE, ENACT, WE CAN, CONNECT, and ACT LOCAL programs, to further bolster stakeholder engagement (see table in Chapter 5 Appendix for summary of programs). Action plan To operationalize effective stakeholder engagements for adaptation, the government of the Philippines is committed to the actions listed in Table 5.1.2.1. Table 5.1.2.1 Stakeholder engagement list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline311 SE 1 Identify engagement gaps and opportunities to boost involvement of key Immediate stakeholder groups: (0-3 years) 1. Identify who are the key stakeholder groups, particularly different demographic groups needing engagement. 2. Identify pain points and needs of each stakeholder group. 3. Perform a thorough assessment of the current stakeholder roles, responsibilities, contributions, level of participation in adaptation activities, ongoing engagement mechanisms, and coordination mechanisms to pinpoint and rectify significant gaps in stakeholder involvement and collaboration.(e.g., identifying gaps and strategizing involvement of academia, private sector, differently-abled, senior citizens indigenous groups, youth and children, gender groups, vulnerable local communities, etc. in implementing and reviewing the NAP) SE 2 Develop inclusive and collaborative engagement strategy tailored for sectoral Immediate and local entities to build awareness of the NAP: (0-3 years) 1. Develop a simplified and abbreviated version of the NAP for sectoral and local entities. 2. Strategize to implement existing plans, establishing inclusive arrangements and coordination mechanisms that encompass outreach, input collection, co-development, and co-implementation of adaptation solutions alongside different stakeholders. 3. Test and deploy various communication techniques (e.g., culture-based communications, use of artistic methods to engage, in-person visits etc.) tailored NAP Implementation to engage specific stakeholder groups. SE 3 Build multi-stakeholder engagement platforms: Medium term Utilize the CIN as a foundation to construct multi-stakeholder platforms and channels (3-6 years) that improve communication and transparency among stakeholders. This includes having an effective mechanism for engaging local communities and indigenous people and gathering their input. (e.g., scaling CONNECT, ACCELERATE, ENACT, & WE CAN programs) Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 311 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 245 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 No. Overview of actions Timeline311 SE 4 Develop long-term network strengthening strategy: Medium term Develop a long-term plan to sustain and enrich engagements with and (3-6 years) across each stakeholder group, enabling continuous involvement and cross-sharing. This includes strategic public-private partnerships with local and international players Conclusion In conclusion, diverse stakeholder engagement and representation are essential for a comprehensive whole-of- the-nation approach to the NAP in the Philippines. Vulnerable groups possess valuable knowledge and experience. While the government has initiated mechanisms, gaps remain in reaching remote, indigenous, and highly vulnerable communities. To address this, a detailed assessment of stakeholder engagement gaps will be conducted, followed by establishing initial interim arrangements. As the NAP progresses, these arrangements will be enhanced for seamless and regular participation, co-learning, and co-development among stakeholders. 5.1.3 Enabler 3: Skills and capacity building Definition and Purpose Key success factors To fully enable key stakeholders to participate in the Skills and capacity building refers to NAP process, five key success factors will be taken into investments equipping entities with the necessary consideration as shown in the table below. capabilities to operationalize the NAP effectively and efficiently. 1. Comprehensive evaluation and ongoing Skills and capacity building plays a pivotal role in monitoring of capacity gaps among NAP key facilitating the NAP process. By providing essential stakeholders in place. knowledge, tools, and a network, it empowers key 2. Inclusive and comprehensive capacity-building stakeholders to actively contribute toward achieving programs that leverage technical the nation’s adaptation objectives. This includes assistance and strategies customized to imparting data management and analytics skills to local each key stakeholder. government units, conducting adaptation and climate 3. Sufficient human, institutional, financial, change awareness programs for highly vulnerable and organizational capacities available to communities, and bolstering technical capacities within facilitate capacity-building programs among Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). NAP key stakeholders. Furthermore, this approach cultivates collaboration 4. Key insights, best practices, best available among stakeholders with diverse yet complementary science, new innovations, and localized skill sets. For example, HEIs, equipped with robust discoveries captured and shared among technical expertise, are guiding local government units NAP stakeholders. and vulnerable communities in comprehending climate 5. Robust partnerships network in place to NAP Implementation change science, and implementing effective adaptation facilitate capabilities transfer. strategies. Given that stakeholders vary in their capabilities and needs, a crucial aspect of this approach is to accurately identify key gaps and surpluses in capabilities and capacities across stakeholders. Building a strong partnership network is vital for facilitating the transfer of capabilities. 246 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Starting point Taking the lead in developing adequate skills and Despite the existence of initiatives needed to upskill capacity building mechanisms, the CCC has established relevant stakeholders, these initiatives are mostly in some programs, tools, and guidelines to equip key the pilot stage, thus the Philippines will push for more stakeholders responsible for executing each step innovative capacity building mechanisms and also of the NAP. focus on scaling proven and tested programs beyond Among these programs is the Communities the pilot scale. for Resilience (CORE) program established in 2016. The Beyond these CCC programs, the entire government CORE program aims to strengthen the planning and has taken action to upskill the younger population. programming capacity of LGUs to kickstart their adaptation Through RA 9512, the Department of Education (DepEd) activities; strengthen the technical capacities of Higher integrated environment in the school curriculum while Education Institutions (HEIs) to mentor and enhance the DOST ensures that students receive science-based knowledge of LGUs, vulnerable groups, and indigenous quality information to inspire the development of people on the science, issues, vulnerabilities, and risks environment-friendly solutions. Also, through RA 9512, of climate change; and develop a pool of local technical DepEd together with the Technical Education and Skills experts with a strong know-how on nationally developed Development Authority (TESDA), the Commission on tools, guidelines, and strategies such as the development Higher Education (CHED) and in coordination with the of Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP), DENR will undertake capacity-building programs on Climate and disaster risk assessment (CDRA), Climate environmental education nationwide. Change Expenditure Tagging (CCET), and People’s Survival Fund (PSF) project proposals. Action plan To enhance skills and capacity building for adaptation, the government of the Philippines is committed to the actions listed in table 5.1.3.1. Table 5.1.3.1 Skills and capacity building list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline312 SCB 1 Identify knowledge, skill, and capacity gaps in relation to climate Immediate change adaptation across national and local entities: (0-3 years) To clearly map and assess skills, capacity, and infrastructural gaps and strengths across key stakeholders in the NAP process. (e.g., gap in LGU skills on creating proposals to acquire adaptation funding, vulnerable groups lack awareness on adaptation measures, LGUs have limited technical capacity and infrastructure to utilize risk information) NAP Implementation Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 312 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 247 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 No. Overview of actions Timeline312 SCB 2 Strengthen the technical and institutional capacity of agencies across Immediate specialized adaptation topics tailored to address key issues and needs: (0-3 years) Create and implement adaptation awareness and foundational training initiatives, utilizing diverse delivery methods tailored to distinct stakeholder groups, with a specific focus on vulnerable communities and pivotal decision-makers. Successful pilot programs will be scaled to reach a wider audience, taking advantage of the Philippines’ abundant human resources. (e.g., data generation and collection, adaptation 101 tailored for inherent risks in coastal, landslide-prone, flood-prone, and remote communities) Develop technical assistance programs in collaboration with technical experts. Provide tools and build the capacity of key stakeholders, particularly government entities, to access, analyze, and interpret climate data, facilitating the formulation, implementation, and monitoring of relevant policies and programs as outlined in the PDP 2023-2028. SCB 3 Identify and promote adaptation champions: Immediate Establish and promote government and non-government champions to lead (0-3 years) and advocate for adaptation initiatives. (e.g., identify and define the local government office responsible to implement NAP initiatives) SCB 4 Integrate adaptation into the national education curricula: Medium The Philippines will build on NCCAP activity to integrate climate change term in basic and higher education curricula, particularly focusing on the (3-6 years) importance of climate change adaptation, resilience, loss and damage, and disaster risk reduction. SCB 5 Promote partnerships with academe to deliver Medium capacity-building programs: term Harness the capabilities of other sectors to amplify the delivery of (3-6 years) capacity-building programs, for example, by integrating skills and capacity-building initiatives with academic and training institutions to achieve broader reach and impact. (e.g., trained HEIs to teach vulnerable communities on the importance of adaptation) SCB 6 Create adaptation best practices playbook and collaborative learning Medium platforms with varying communication methods to share key term climate-related information: (3-6 years) Create an adaptation best practices playbook that includes indigenous knowledge, systems, and practices, and science-based approaches. (e.g., building on the long list of adaptation solutions per sector identified in NAP Implementation this NAP) Establish a collaborative platform facilitating sustainable knowledge-sharing among diverse entities for mutual learning and growth. Create a communications strategy for the capacity-building programs, designed to effectively share essential climate science and adaptation knowledge among diverse stakeholder groups with varying communication preferences. 248 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Conclusion Skills and capacity building empower stakeholders to actively engage and collaborate in implementing the NAP. While the Philippine government has made initial efforts to enhance stakeholder capabilities, scaling these initiatives to a wider population is necessary to scale adaptation action. Going forward, the Philippines will focus on developing and expanding skills and capacity building mechanisms, while also identifying complementary skills and capacities among stakeholders to foster collaboration and co-development. To kick-start this process, a comprehensive mapping of skills and capacities across stakeholders will be conducted, followed by the development of a NAP curriculum that recognizes and leverages the complementary nature of stakeholder skills and capacities. 5.1.4 Enabler 4: Data and knowledge infrastructure Definition and Purpose 3. Ownership of climate change information is Data and knowledge (information) infrastructure well-defined, encompassing responsibilities refers to the generation, management, and throughout its lifecycle. use of climate change-related information to 4. Mechanisms are in place to capture real-time operationalize the NAP process. learnings and new information through feedback channels. Information plays a critical role in enabling the NAP process by providing a solid foundation grounded Starting point in science and evidence, thereby strengthening Currently, the Philippines possesses a wealth of decision-making among key stakeholders. It facilitates climate-related data and knowledge. However, these a comprehensive understanding of exposure and resources are managed and stored independently vulnerability to climate hazards, enabling the prioritization by various sources. While the National Mapping of impactful and easily implementable programs through and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) is cost-benefit analyses and impact evaluation against mandated to centralize data sourcing, its application baseline values. Historical data analysis and scenario for climate change-related information gathering is still generation support decision-makers in taking proactive nascent. Challenges remain in gathering, cleaning, and measures despite the uncertainties of climate change. processing information for end-users. Furthermore, information serves as a catalyst for As to the DOST PAGASA, data collection and insight creating a compelling narrative that mobilizes critical generation is done through sophisticated analytical NAP actors both locally and internationally, fostering a models and tools like HazardHunter. Recently, DOST unified call to action. initiated PlanSmart, a comprehensive tool integrating existing platforms like HazardHunter and GeoRiskPH Key success factors into a unified government entity platform. PlanSmart, To unlock the full potential of information, four key factors, specifically GeoRisk, acts as central data lake for as shown in table below, will be taken into consideration. climate-related data and information. The tool’s goal is to present LGUs with projected climate hazards, enable 1. Climate change information is easily accessible the ability to add historical hazards and their impact NAP Implementation and stored in a universal format, interoperable, over time, and formulate a standardized adaptation and communicated in a tailored manner to plan. However, certain prerequisites such as robust meet stakeholder needs. data architecture, ownership, security, user experience 2. Usable analytical models for adaptation across and interface design, incorporation of tools from other entities, generating actionable insights and departments, and monitoring plan must be addressed to data-driven approaches from information. ensure platform comprehensiveness, quality, usability, and continuous usage. 249 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 As for the CCC, it created the National Integrated Climate Change Database Information and Exchange System (NICCDIES) to serve as the integrated information portal of the CCC. However, NICCDIES does not operate alone as other relevant government agencies facilitate information sharing. This presents an opportunity to streamline climate change-related information to a single repository as a main source of truth. Key Actions To strengthen data and knowledge infrastructure for adaptation, the government of the Philippines is committed to the actions listed in table 5.1.4.1. Table 5.1.4.1 Data and knowledge infrastructure specific actions No. Overview of actions Timeline313 DKI 1 Establish well-defined and user-friendly protocols for the collection Immediate of climate information: (0-3 years) Harmonize, standardize, and simplify information generation and collection to maintain consistency. (e.g., building a central information collection platform where inputs from multiple entities are standardized) Establish clear ownership and tagging of different climate change information. (e.g., Agreements to leverage climate-related data owned by private sector acknowledging data privacy laws and other relevant considerations, designate responsibility to LGUs for encoding and uploading localized climate change-related information) DKI 2 Stock-take and encode existing climate data in data lake: Immediate Conduct detailed stocktaking, encoding, and standardizing of available (0-3 years) climate-related information through a centrally managed and accessible platform. (e.g., data from existing reports and databases to be encoded in an interoperable format then stored in a central cloud-based platform) Improve and scale climate information platform, creating a comprehensive and centralized climate information bank for data. (e.g., CCC and relevant agencies can build on NICCDIES or Plansmart as the central climate change information sharing platform) *Similar to initiative AF 2 in Enabler 6 (Adaptation Financing) DKI 3 Institutionalize a national adaptation data office: Medium Build or designate an accessible adaptation data office to centrally manage term adaptation data and knowledge, building upon existing systems of data (3-6 years) NAP Implementation collection and information from local and indigenous communities. (e.g., developing adaptation data offices in the most vulnerable communities— “hotspots,” or build on the PDP plan to establish local climate change data centers and natural hazard information centers, or build on the DOST’s PlanSmart) *Similar to initiative AF 4 in Enabler 6 (Adaptation Financing) Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 313 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 250 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 DKI 4 Enhance data security across platforms: Medium Implement robust data security measures across various tools and platforms term to safeguard sensitive information, fostering trust, and reliability in data (3-6 years) management processes. Establish environments to enable the testing of new features, ensure data quality assurance, and maintain isolation when uploading data from various departments. Implement Identity and Access Management (IAM) systems, along with associated roles and responsibilities, to effectively record and authenticate user login information, maintain access history for audits, monitor user activities, and enforce access policies. DKI 5 Integrate feedback mechanisms: Medium Develop real-time and accurate feedback mechanisms in tools being term developed. (e.g., integrate real-time feedback collection mechanism in (3-6 years) NICCDIES platform) DKI 6 Develop national risk registry: Medium Build on the PDP 2023-2028 goal to develop a national risk registry that term outlines and identifies location-specific hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, (3-6 years) complementary to the development of localized climate models and projections and with a dedicated focus to progress beyond initial output-level data by providing richer insights for enhanced decision-making. Conclusion In conclusion, the Philippines has an abundant pool of climate change information; however, this information is fragmented, unharmonized, and difficult to access today. To streamline information management, processing, sharing, and updating, the Philippines will build on existing tools and platforms and will build adaptation data offices. Building this upfront will enable a data and evidence-driven NAP process nationally and locally. 5.1.5 Enabler 5: Technology and innovation Definition and Purpose Key success factors To enhance the NAP and bolster adaptation through Technology and innovation refers to the innovation, five key success factors are considered, development and/or transfer of solutions (both as shown in the table below. This aligns with the soft and hard solutions) enabling adaptation to the Philippines’ goal to boost R&D and commercialization diverse impacts of climate change. of new technologies, promoting research for improved adaptation tech. Advancing technology and innovation is crucial for NAP Implementation economic growth, social progress, and addressing 1. Adequate funding and incentives established climate change impacts. This includes developing tools, to support the exploration, nurturing, and policies, and solutions for adaptation. To be effective, expansion of novel adaptation technologies. adaptation tech and innovation must be tailored to the 2. A perpetual cycle of learning and innovation, unique circumstances in various Philippine regions. coupled with a culture of adaptation-focused technology and innovation, deeply ingrained in the national framework. 251 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 3. Open and collaborative mechanisms instituted to facilitate mutual learning and joint innovation endeavors. 4. Customized and accessible development of technology and innovation, catering specifically to the needs of the most marginalized. 5. Operationalizing both national and international technology and innovation transfer mechanisms while establishing avenues to capture, share, and scale best available science, indigenous knowledge, and local experiences. Bangui Wind Farm, Bangui, Ilocos Norte Starting point Advancing research, development, technology, and Recently, the Philippines also approved the National innovation is a top priority for the Philippines, as outlined Innovation Agenda and Strategy Document (NIASD) in the PDP 2023-2028. This plan aims to accelerate 2023-2032, aiming to enhance innovation governance R&D and technology progression while strengthening and foster a dynamic innovation ecosystem. innovative ecosystems. The Philippines also In addition to existing plans, the Philippines has initiated recognizes the importance of adaptation technologies various programs to promote adaptation technology and within the NAP. innovation. The CCC launched programs like Klimathon Research and development (R&D) in climate change to spur environmental solution development. adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) have Expanding on these initiatives, the Philippines will been priorities in the Philippines’ Harmonized National work to boost adaptation R&D, technology, and R&D Agenda (HNRDA) 2017-2022, guided by the innovation. This effort includes promoting local tech DOST. Key research areas identified include advanced development and adopting international advancements observation and monitoring systems, modeling for for local applications. better forecasting, climate change adaptation tools, disaster risk management technologies, and policy development. RA 9512 mandates the DOST to offer science-based environmental education, inspiring NAP Implementation eco-friendly innovations. 252 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Key Actions To increase technology and innovation for adaptation, the government of the Philippines is committed to the actions listed in table 5.1.5.1. Table 5.1.5.1 Technology and innovation list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline314 TI 1 Reform policies to facilitate adaptation-related R&D/innovation Immediate and guardrails to protect vulnerable communities from undesired (0-3 years) consequences of adaptation solutions: Enhance policy frameworks to facilitate innovation and investment in adaptation, particularly in emerging domains (e.g., strengthening IP rights of adaptation-related R&D, offering incentives to encourage private sector investment in adaptation research and development) Establish proactive safeguards to ensure that adaptation solutions yield greater benefits than harm for vulnerable communities. TI 2 Promote adaptation-focused R&D in collaboration Immediate with non-state entities: (0-3 years) In collaboration with key non-state entities (e.g., academia, the private sector, civil society, NGOs, etc.) incentivize, promote, and advance the pursuit for adaptation-focused R&D to build technical expertise. (e.g., promoting and scaling reach of DOST’s Engineering Research for Development & Technology to fund more adaptation studies) Transform adaptation R&D concepts into viable projects through private sector funding. (e.g., scale up the CCC Klimathon to accommodate more research institutes and include more representatives from the private sector, active participation in international adaptation-related accelerator programs) TI 3 Build inclusive climate technology and innovation partnerships: Medium Promote and support local and international technology and innovation term partnerships to develop fit-for-purpose adaptation solutions and to acquire (3-6 years) necessary funding. (e.g., participating in international scientific/technical conferences to learn from other researchers and foster international partnerships in developing new solutions; scaling the National Research and Development Conference to facilitate co-developments in the R&D sector) Promote an inclusive and participatory technology and information sharing and partnership mechanism to ground innovation with best available science and indigenous and local knowledge. Particularly, involve representatives from different demographic groups such as gender, age (youth and elderly), income levels, and indigenous peoples to unlock nuanced insights and solutions. Develop mechanisms and pathways to foster multi-stakeholder discussions and partnerships. (e.g., creation of platform connecting R&D sector to private NAP Implementation sectors, climate-related innovators and investors, financial institutions, and international partners) Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 314 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 253 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 TI 4 Deploy information collection and sharing mechanisms: Medium Develop mechanisms to capture, share, and scale key insights, best available term science, new innovations, indigenous knowledge, and local experiences, (3-6 years) operationalizing both national and international technology and innovation transfer mechanisms TI 8 Deploy local grants to pursue adaptation ideas: Medium Create or scale existing local grants to incubate local adaptation ideas term (3-6 years) Conclusion In summary, the Philippines is intensifying efforts to develop adaptation solutions to address climate change impacts. There is growing enthusiasm to prioritize R&D, with small-scale initiatives in progress. The NAP will prioritize adaptation in R&D and support project transformation for private sector investment. It will also foster collaboration within the scientific community through active engagement in conferences and events. 5.1.6 Enabler 6: Adaptation financing Definition and Purpose Adaptation financing involves deploying 2. Mainstreaming adaptation in Public Finance strategies to secure, allocate, access, and Management and budgeting: Integrate climate optimize the use of financial resources for adaptation considerations into budgeting and addressing climate impacts. financial planning processes to ensure adequate Globally and particularly in highly climate-vulnerable and timely public funding is directed towards nations like the Philippines, there is a growing need high-impact adaptation interventions. for adaptation financing. As a developing country 3. Enabling private sector investments in adaptation: disproportionately affected by climate change, the Facilitate private sector investments in adaptation Philippines must utilize domestic public, international projects by highlighting potential risks, returns, development, and private sector funds to implement and benefits. adaptation solutions and sustain the NAP process. 4. Leveraging innovative funding instruments: The central focus of this enabler in the NAP is to address Explore a range of innovative funding instruments, issues and opportunities in allocating, accessing, and especially those that help unlock private capital, utilizing each funding source. As the NAP proceeds, a by making semi-bankable projects viable national investment and financing plan will be created 5. Actively engage public sector and local to quantify the funding gap and optimize allocation for communities throughout the process: Involve priority adaptation solutions. government agencies (national, sectoral, and Key success factors local), local communities, and vulnerable To unlock a holistic and sustainable adaptation financing groups in the formulation of adaptation financing strategy for the Philippines, six key success factors strategies and prioritization. NAP Implementation will be critical. 6. Establishing robust and strategic networks: 1. Utilizing a co-benefit approach: To enhance Partner with multiple Multilateral Development the mobilization of adaptation financing, Banks (MDBs) and Development Finance policymakers can design priority programs and Institutions (DFIs) to access additional funding, projects in a manner that not only addresses global project insights, technical support, and adaptation but also yields co-benefits in innovative funding mechanisms. terms of advancing climate change mitigation, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, disaster risk reduction, and more. 254 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Starting point Figure 5.1.6.1 illustrates the adaptation funding resources in the Philippines. Relative thereto, three primary funding sources were identified to underpin the adaptation financing in the Philippines: (1) domestic public funding, (2) international development funding, and (3) private funding. Given the large funding gap for adaptation, the strategic targeting and utilization of each source or the combination of these sources is pivotal in ensuring sustainable funding for the nation’s adaptation priorities. While the Philippines urgently requires substantial funding from both the private sector and international sources, the country must exercise caution to ensure that the terms of such agreements align with its national interests, especially the well-being of the most vulnerable communities. Non-exhaustive Domestic public funding International development funding • Public direct funding 1 • Bilateral DFIs & agencies 1 • Local adaptation funding 2 • Multilateral DFIs & institutions 2 Public 1 Innovative funding instruments 2 • Climate Effectively utilizing different innovative 3 funds financing instruments to creatively combine and deploy combinations of capital to accelerate adaptation funding Private funding • Private company investments 1 Private • Commercial financial institutions 2 • Private donations/grants (e.g., households, corporate donations, philanthropies) 3 Domestic International Figure 5.1.6.1 Adaptation funding sources in the Philippines Domestic public funding Domestic public funding refers to government funding allocated for adaptation. As a government-issued resource, domestic public funding not only sustains the NAP but also reflects the country’s unwavering dedication to its adaptation commitments. It serves as a tangible demonstration of the Philippines’ determination to protect its communities and ecosystems from the impacts of climate change. Public direct funding From 2016 to 2022, the Philippines allocated PHP1.59 trillion for climate initiatives, representing 5.8% of total NAP Implementation national spending during this period. Notably, 94.5% of this budget was dedicated to adaptation, highlighting the nation’s commitment to adaptation and resilience (A&R). In 2021, the Philippines allocated over PHP275 million to adaptation, which increased to PHP411 million in 2023, marking a 50% increase in two years. Ramon Magsaysay Center, Malate, Manila 255 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Despite increased public climate funding, significant adaptation financing challenges persist. In the 2022 climate budget proposal, nearly 90% of the budget was allocated to four departments: DPWH (64%), DOTR (14%), DA (8%), and DENR (4%). This highlights the need to expand the focus of current adaptation strategies. A closer look at the DPWH budget reveals that most funding is directed toward flood management, indicating the need for broader infrastructure coverage to address other climate risks, such as typhoon-induced extreme winds. Specific sectors, like agriculture and transportation, show strong innovation in budget Programs Convergence Budgeting – allocations. Risk Resiliency and Sustainability Program Peoples’ Survival Fund (PSF) (PCB-RRSP) The DBM initiated Program Convergence Budgeting to Recognizing the importance of localized adaptation, the enhance strategic budgeting, interagency collaboration, Climate Change Act of 2009 was amended, leading to and climate priorities. the establishment of the Peoples’ Survival Fund (PSF) in 2012. This national treasury fund complements annual Within the framework of PCB, the Climate Change appropriations for relevant government agencies, Adaptation, Mitigation, and Disaster Risk Reduction enhancing climate change adaptation programs at the (CCAM-DRR) cabinet cluster, under the leadership of local level. The PSF serves as a long-term finance the Department of Environment and Natural Resources facility for adaptation projects proposed by LGUs and (DENR), has developed the Risk Resiliency Program local/community organizations, with a minimum annual (RRP). This program serves as a mechanism to allocation of PHP1 billion. This enables LGUs and operationalize the cluster’s roadmap for the years 2018 accredited organizations to execute vital adaptation to 2022. It is strategically designed to enhance both the activities aligned with the National Framework Strategy quantity and quality of climate-responsive investments on Climate Change (NFSCC). in the initially identified 24 climate-vulnerable provinces and four major urban centers in the country. While However, the current approved PSF support is support is being provided to the initially identified areas, PHP889.6 million, with ongoing reviews of project the DENR also endeavors to expand the geographical proposals. Presently, the PSF is funding eleven projects scope of areas benefiting from the program. located in Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Isabela, Mountain Province, Quezon, Sarangani, A total of PHP291 billion worth of programs/activities/ Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, and Tarlac, projects were tagged and funded under the Risk and six approved project development grants located Resiliency Program Convergence Budget through the in Northern Samar and Mountain Province as part 2023 General Appropriations Act. Despite this, there of the General Appropriations Act (GAA). The utilization is a need to strengthen the planning and prioritization of the PSF by LGUs and local communities has of RRP PAPs using the best available science to help NAP Implementation faced challenges, including awareness of available make development programming and financing more financing facilities, integration of adaptation evidence-based and risk-based. considerations, and disbursement. 256 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Manila Bay, Roxas Boulevard, Manila International development funding Private funding International development funding sources is defined To address these concerns, the involvement of the as financial resources procured from public entities private sector is critical. As the Global Commission on and global origins, earmarked specifically to bolster Adaptation puts it in its Flagship Report, “the public adaptation efforts. To meet the escalating adaptation sector needs to shift its focus to include both generating demands of developing nations, particularly those most finance and creating incentives to scale up private sector susceptible to climate change, developed countries engagement in adaptation investments” (GCA, 2019). have pledged an annual sum of USD100 billion However, globally, corporations and institutional investors to support both mitigation and adaptation endeavors in contributed a mere USD1 billion, which accounts for only developing countries. 2% of the tracked adaptation finance in 2019 and 2020. According to an Institute for Climate and Sustainable This is in stark contrast to the significant 98% provided Cities (ICSC) study from 2013 to 2017, the Philippines by public sources. received a total commitment of USD4.3 billion from The private sector has good reason to focus on climate international climate funding, mainly from Japan and the adaptation due to physical and transition risks. These World Bank, contributing 49% and 25%, respectively. risks make adaptation investments financially prudent During this period, 56% of the funding supported and crucial for long-term stability. The Philippines emissions reduction, while 44% went to climate recognizes the private sector’s role in adaptation and change adaptation. has established lending instruments for climate projects. In 2021, the Official Development Assistance (ODA) Examples include the Land Bank of the Philippines’ Portfolio Review Report highlighted approximately 37 Ecosystem Program and sub-loans via the Climate projects related to climate adaptation and mitigation, Special Adaptation Facility, as well as the Development with 30% incorporating adaptation components. The Bank of the Philippines’ Green Financing Program. report emphasized the importance of rebalancing the Furthermore, the Philippines has begun implementing loans-to-grants ratio due to the country’s debt situation. regulatory measures to encourage increased private The prior year’s NEDA ODA report estimated that these sector engagement. Among these measures are the projects would cost PHP128.8 billion, with the majority issuance of circular no. 1085 by the BSP on April 19, (96.7%) funded through loans and a smaller fraction 2020, outlining the Sustainable Finance Framework, NAP Implementation covered by grants. Circular No. 1128 dated October 26, 2021, detailing Despite access to bilateral and multilateral funding, the Environmental and Social Risk Management a significant portion of available resources remains Framework, the Green Jobs Act, the CREATE act, and untapped. There is a vast pool of international Circular No. 1149 issued on August 23, 2022, providing development funding accessible, and international guidelines on integrating sustainability principles into partners are eager to provide support. investment activities of banks. The implementation of these enabling policies has resulted in the issuance of over PHP100 billion worth of sustainable bonds in 2020. 257 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Despite the progress made, significant challenges persist for the private sector’s active involvement in climate adaptation efforts. Private sector involvement in climate adaptation remains low in the Philippines. While financial institutions are increasingly issuing sustainability and green bonds, critical sectors (e.g., infrastructure) have yet to fully engage. Key barriers for adaptation financing Having explained the existing condition and difficulties Bankability of adaptation strategies and projects related to different adaptation funding sources in the The Philippines recognizes multiple and blended climate Philippines, five (5) pivotal barriers that hinders the finance sources including grants, highly concessional progress of adaptation in financing are identified. loans, investments and subsidies, to scale up implementation of climate actions. Narrative and information gaps This means that apart from public funding sources, Awareness and understanding on available adaptation available resources from private sources shall be financing are key to accessing resources such as the unlocked, and access shall be accelerated. People’s Survival Fund (PSF). In this regard, the Philippines is working on unlocking Potential project proponents such as LGUs and local/ private sources to supplement public funding for community organizations in the case of PSF, and private climate change adaptation through setting up policies sector and other entities in the case of other funding and systems to provide incentives and enhancing the mechanisms by financial institutions, need to be fully ‘bankability’ of project proposals making these more informed and oriented on the nature of the climate appealing to investors. finance, and how these can be tapped to leverage existing resources. Project structure and procedural complexity The technical capacity to develop and submit project Project structure and its complexity affects ability to proposals for different funding windows is likewise access financing and investments, involving multiple crucial. Proponents need to be provided with sufficient sectors, location-specific factors, and diverse stakeholder and up-to-date technical assistance, and to be equipped alignment. Alignment of perspectives is needed when with necessary skills in developing project proposals. coordinating with funders with distinct preferences in In accessing adaptation financing, it is crucial for project risk, return, and impact. This also necessitates detailed proposals to have clear and comprehensive climate financial evaluation, extensive risk analysis, and rigorous rationale, which shall establish that the proposed due diligence, increasing project financing costs which initiatives are fit-for-purpose and responsive to affects the interest of both developers and financiers. site-specific risks and vulnerabilities. Procedural complexity likewise affects the provision of It shall be noted further that there is urgency in tapping financing and investments for adaptation projects and additional resources to support adaptation initiatives. strategies. Disbursement of financing such as those In this regard, systems and procedures by those released in tranches impacts the ability of LGUs to governing the funds, shall likewise be further streamlined efficiently implement projects as this may cause negative NAP Implementation and simplified. cash flow or financial strain. 258 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Inadequate policies and regulations Lack of robust standards and budgeting Unclear policy signals can serve as a barrier. The The absence of a shared ‘language’ for assessing absence of clear guidelines raises uncertainties for adaptation risks is evident, with many global objectives, investors and financiers, who become uncertain about metrics, and methodologies in their infancy—unlike the the regulations that oversee adaptation projects. This more established frameworks in the realm of mitigation. uncertainty contributes to an elevated perception of In the absence of clear and consistent criteria, it becomes risks, potentially dissuading potential investors from challenging to determine which projects align with climate investing in projects. Specifically, uncoordinated, adaptation goals. This lack of standardized assessment and ambiguous cross-sectoral policies can impede can result in confusion and ambiguity, leading to private sector engagement in adaptation endeavors. suboptimal project selection and resource allocation. For example, the water sector in the Philippines is Specifically, efficient utilization of funds emerges as grappling with insufficient private sector investment a key concern within the Philippines as funding from as existing tariff policies and the political pressure international funders are often diverted from its intended to maintain low water tariffs has discourage private focus to address other national priorities. investment. Furthermore, investing in adaptation, Moreover, without adopting an adaptation lens during particularly in innovative areas, often demands changes budgeting, opportunities for targeted investments in to regulatory frameworks or permissions. climate-resilient projects might be overlooked. This omission can lead to underinvestment in critical sectors, leaving vulnerabilities unaddressed. Particularly, large projects in the Philippines lack a systematic screening process for assessing their vulnerability to either physical or transitional climate risks. The level of adherence to budget tagging requirements continues to be quite limited, as approximately only 10% of spending units report their climate-related expenditure. This is attributed to the fact that the integration of these expenditures into the budget management system has not yet been fully realized. 315 Key Actions Overall cross-cutting strategies The Philippines needs to embark on a series of strategic action plans by addressing the crucial aspects of adaptation financing across the entire ecosystem. Table 5.1.6.1 below outlines the overarching cross-cutting list of actions. Table 5.1.6.1. Overall cross-cutting list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline316 AF 1 Develop national investment and financing plan: Immediate NAP Implementation Formulate a national investment and financing plan aimed at quantifying (0-3 years) adaptation costs, addressing financial gaps, prioritizing interventions, and identifying strategies to unlock access to sustainable financing options for each recognized adaptation priority. Critical to consult with wide range of stakeholders, including local and vulnerable communities. World Bank (2022). Philippines, Country Climate and Development Report 315 Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 316 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 259 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 AF 2 Create investor database for climate risks and events: Immediate Provide access to historical climate data and develop predictive models to (0-3 years) assist key stakeholders in efficiently funding critical adaptation priorities. Continuously monitor and compile data and trends to furnish investment- related insights for adaptation efforts. (e.g., leverage on existing DOST PlanSmart, a unified government entity platform. PlanSmart, specifically GeoRisk, acts as central data lake for climate-related data and information. The tool’s goal is to present LGUs with projected climate hazards, enable the ability to add historical hazards and their impact over time, and formulate a standardized adaptation plan.) AF 3 Implement technical assistance programs aimed at enhancing Immediate awareness and technical proficiency in adaptation financing: (0-3 years) Educate relevant stakeholders on existing adaptation financing sources and provide support on how to strategically unlock potential financing opportunities. This can be done through strategically leveraging the expertise of local and international partnerships. AF 4 Institutionalize a national focal entity for adaptation finance: Medium Function as a unified entity that centralizes all adaptation-related finances term and projects, offering comprehensive oversight of macro-level developments, (3-6 years) create a robust pipeline of adaptation projects that are financially feasible and attractive and act as a coordination platform for matchmaking opportunities between key stakeholders. AF 5 Enhance national sustainable finance taxonomy: Medium Continue developing the Philippine Sustainable Finance Taxonomy term Guidelines for more effective and accurate reporting as aligned to the PDP (3-6 years) 2023-2028 strategy to mainstream sustainable finance. Domestic public funds As domestic public funding is the primary source for financing adaptation projects, the Philippines is committed to implementing a set of action plans outlined in Table 5.1.6.2. Table 5.1.6.2. Domestic public funding sources list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline317 AF 3 Implement technical assistance programs aimed at enhancing Immediate awareness and technical proficiency in adaptation financing: (0-3 years) To educate public sector actors on existing adaptation financing sources and provide support on how to strategically unlock potential financing opportunities. This can be done through strategically leveraging the expertise of local and international partnerships. (e.g., leveraging regional development councils or leagues to inform far-flung LGUs and organizations on available national financing facilities and corresponding requirements, raising NAP Implementation awareness and capacitating implementing entities on DOST’s PlanSmart to generate local vulnerability assessments and technical proposals) Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 317 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 260 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 AF 6 Integrate adaptation lens into public finance management: Immediate Actively incorporate an adaptation lens into the operations and future (0-3 years) undertakings at all levels of governments, as climate events are critical fiscal risk that needs to be integrated in fiscal planning. This includes (1) identifying and quantifying climate risks (i.e., take stock of public assets exposed to natural hazards, especially critical public services), (2) disclosing climate-related fiscal risks (i.e., as part of the overall fiscal risk statement) to guide policymakers, and (3) embedding climate risks in fiscal planning and make provisions in the budget (i.e., investing in resilience, fiscal buffers, budget flexibility) (IMF, 2022). AF 7 Enhance climate adaptation tagging from national budget: Immediate Ensures dedicated funding for adaptation initiatives are tagged correctly to (0-3 years) ensure a systematic way of tracking adaptation finance. (e.g., build on the PSFR plan to identify and implement the necessary enhancements for the Climate Change Expenditure Tagging) AF 8 Prioritize funding for social welfare and community adaptation: Immediate To channel significant domestic public funding to social resilience of (0-3 years) communities, ensure equitable resilience-building and prevent exacerbation of existing inequalities. (e.g., provide cash transfers, relocate vulnerable communities, integrate the Philippines’ Population, Health, and Environment Approach) AF 9 Improve funding source disbursement rules: Medium Align national funding sources disbursement regulations according to term implementing entity needs and contexts. (e.g., Increasing PSF’s upfront (3-6 years) funding amount to approved projects) AF 10 Mainstream existing Program Convergence Budgeting: Medium Expand government’s program convergence budgeting approach across term provinces, especially important given slow uptake (i.e., 14 out of 82 provinces (3-6 years) covered by 2021) International Climate Finance The Philippines has cultivated strong partnerships with numerous international actors, and the interest from international development funding institutions to support the country remains high. This situation provides the Philippines with a significant avenue to complement its domestic public funding sources and expedite its adaptation efforts. The Philippines is committed to executing a series of action plans as outlined in table 5.1.6.3. Table 5.1.6.3 International development funding sources list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline318 AF 3 Provide technical assistance programs to build awareness and Immediate technical capabilities on adaptation financing: (0-3 years) NAP Implementation To educate local stakeholders on existing adaptation financing sources from international development funders and provide support on how to strategically unlock potential financing opportunities. This can be done through strategically leveraging the expertise of local and international partnerships. (e.g., strengthening direct access by facilitating new accreditations to Climate Financial Intermediary Funds, facilitating inter-agency workshops discussing available international adaptation financing facilities and their corresponding requirements) Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 318 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 261 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 AF 4 Institutionalize a national focal entity for adaptation finance: Medium Function as a unified entity to (1) map of available international funding term sources along with their associated key requirements and (2) monitor the (3-6 years) utilization of acquired international development funding. Information should be made available across government and to project proponents. AF 11 Utilize existing platforms to expand partnership network: Medium Capitalize on established networks such as the ENACT contact group to term establish and cultivate enduring partnerships with diverse international (3-6 years) development funding providers. Private funding Private sector involvement in adaptation financing has remained minimal. It is imperative to engage the private sector to bridge the adaptation financing gap in the Philippines. Consequently, the Philippines is dedicated to the action plans outlined in Table 5.1.6.4 which are aimed at enhancing the participation of private sector players. Table 5.1.6.4 Private funding sources list of actions No. Overview of actions Timeline319 AF 2 Create investor database for climate risks and events: Immediate Provide access to historical climate data and develop predictive models to (0-3 years) assist key stakeholders in efficiently funding critical adaptation priorities. Continuously monitor and compile data and trends to furnish investment- related insights for adaptation efforts. (e.g., leverage on existing DOST PlanSmart, a unified government entity platform. PlanSmart, specifically GeoRisk, acts as central data lake for climate-related data and information. The tool’s goal is to present LGUs with projected climate hazards, enable the ability to add historical hazards and their impact over time, and formulate a standardized adaptation plan. AF 3 Provide technical assistance programs to build awareness and Immediate technical capabilities on adaptation financing: (0-3 years) To educate relevant stakeholders on existing adaptation financing sources and provide support on how to strategically unlock potential financing opportunities. This can be done through strategically leveraging the expertise of local and international partnerships. (e.g., communicate evaluation criteria to private sector on how to access funds, facilitating private sector forums to discuss the important role private sector plays in funding adaptation gap, raising awareness and capacitating implementing entities on DOST’s PlanSmart to extract adaptation-related data and information that the private sector can use) AF 4 Institutionalize a national focal entity for adaptation finance: Medium NAP Implementation Function as a unified entity that centralizes all adaptation-related finances term and projects, offering comprehensive oversight of macro-level developments, (3-6 years) create a robust pipeline of adaptation projects that are financially feasible and attractive and act as a coordination platform for matchmaking opportunities between key stakeholders. (e.g., leverage on National Resilience Council as a starting point) Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 319 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 262 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 AF 12 Integrate an adaptation lens into private sector operations: Immediate Actively incorporate an adaptation lens into the operations and future (0-3 years) undertakings for private sector players by climate stress testing investment portfolios to understand existing risks and impacts, develop measures to address risks identified and explore opportunities to invest in climate adaptation. (e.g., integrate adaptation-related disclosures from private sector in ESG reporting) AF 13 Integrate an adaptation lens in PPP funding: Immediate Devise strategies to include private sector-driven adaptation solutions within (0-3 years) Public-Private Partnership (PPP) funding mechanisms, ensuring wider sector coverage. (e.g., enhancing the PPP’s requirements to consider cost of inaction; tapping international funding facilities to conduct public and private policy reforms) AF 14 Develop private sector engagement mechanisms: Immediate Establish clear and effective mechanisms to engage the private sector, (0-3 years) encouraging their active participation in climate adaptation initiatives. (e.g., developing regular and frequent private sector leaders’ forum to provide key developments related to adaptation such as the National Resilience Council and the Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation) AF 15 Co-develop financing models accelerating private investments: Immediate Collaboratively develop creative financing models that expedite private sector (0-3 years) involvement in various sectors, accelerating their contribution to adaptation efforts. (e.g., co-developing blended finance schemes to attract private sector investment in projects that would otherwise not attract investments) Innovative financing instruments There is a growing recognition amongst practitioners that countries must explore options outside the conventional reservoirs of funds—namely, grants and loans—toward innovative financing instruments that can unleash further investments. This includes accessing financial resources from a range of entities such as financial institutions, private investors, institutional investors, impact investors, foundations, and philanthropists. These tools have the potential to unlock more adaptation funding because of their ability to attract investors with different risk profiles and investment horizons. At present, the Philippines has initiated the implementation of several innovative financing instruments, such as Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Option and CAT bonds. As many of these instruments are still nascent, the Philippines is dedicated to the action plan outlined in table 5.1.6.5. This aims to systematically codify the insights learned from the following innovative funding instruments to comprehensively understand the impacts of these instruments and determine their viability for the future. The existing innovative financing instruments, which are not limited to those listed, can be found in the Chapter 5 Appendix. Table 5.1.6.4 Private funding sources list of actions NAP Implementation No. Overview of actions Timeline320 AF 16 Codify the insights learned from the existing innovative financing Immediate instruments: (0-3 years) Monitoring and evaluation of existing financing instruments to comprehensively understand their impacts and determine their viability for the future. Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities 320 unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 263 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 It is also important for the Philippines to continuously explore a range of other financing instruments to achieve these goals. Many of these instruments have demonstrated promising outcomes. Thus, the Philippines is committed to the action plan outlined in Table 5.1.6.6 by considering the following innovative funding instruments below in Table 5.1.6.7. Table 5.1.6.6 Innovative Financing Instruments action plan No. Overview of actions Timeline321 AF 17 Accelerate use of innovative financing instruments: Immediate Explore the viability of the different financing instruments and develop (0-3 years) strategies to accelerate selected instruments. Table 5.1.6.7 List of innovative funding instruments for consideration Instrument type Description322 Key advantage323 Key consideration Pooled Financial vehicles combining Brings layers of The project or initiative investment fund capital from different entities (e.g., capital with differing should yield a satisfactory public funding, international funding return-impact return on investment for providers, private sector) and then considerations under its investors. deploy it to projects with specific one platform. development or sectoral objectives. Guarantee Provided lenders to cover Catalysts for Typically appear on schemes / non-commercial risks. These bringing additional the balance sheets catalyzes bringing additional capital that would of guarantors for the programs private capital to the table who not otherwise be complete sum, and might otherwise not participate. available, resulting in consequently, they are not a leverage ratio of up as favored by guarantors to 5x. as other instruments (such as loans). Debt-for-nature Debtor country allowed discounts Frees up fiscal Creditor governments swaps on the debt owed to its creditor in resources for need to establish legal exchange for investments towards governments to assurance to ensure that conservation. This frees up improve resilience debt-for-nature swaps fiscal resources for governments without triggering a lower the debt burden to to improve resilience without fiscal crisis. the extent agreed. triggering a fiscal crisis. Adaptation Reputable international Acts as extra Requires agreed-upon Benefits organizations will be able to certify security/collateral methodologies to capture the benefits of specific adaptation when seeking the impact of adaptation Mechanism activities (Certified Adaptation upfront loans activities. NAP Implementation Benefits) to project developers and/ or equity investments or governments. to attract initial investors. 321 Immediate – needs to be done earliest as possible to lay the foundation for other activities; medium-term – important activities unlocked / can be done after establishing foundational activities 322 IISD (2023) 323 Ibid. 264 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Conclusion In sum, this section has explored the landscape of adaptation finance in the Philippines, along with the barriers faced in attracting adaptation financing. It then outlines a series of actions to tackle these challenges in a comprehensive way. The success of the NAP hinges on financing as an enabler—it has the power to determine whether we succeed or fail in protecting the Philippines against the impacts of climate change. Bonifacio Global City, Taguig, Metro Manila 5.2 Implementation roadmap The NAP roadmap outlines a high-level plan of activities The features of the NAP roadmap for initial implementation to kickstart the NAP implementation. It focuses on the are summarized below: necessary next steps based on the understanding • Overarching initiatives for the initial implementation of priorities for the country based on the analysis in (immediate, within three years) that are driven by Chapter 3 on climate analytics, recommendations on specific actions that relate to chapters on climate adaptation priorities in Chapter 4, and enablers required analytics, adaptation priorities, and implementation, to support implementation in Chapter 5, leading to with each initiative contributing to the broader goal specific initiatives and activities. The roadmap includes of effective adaptation. actions at both national and local levels, recognizing • National and local level of implementation, with their interconnected roles. select initiatives needing cooperation between national (including sectoral) and local efforts. • High-level potential strategic indicators that will track progress, accountability, and success. • Defined lead and supporting agencies for key activities to ensure clear and synchronized implementation. • Indicative timescales for key activities. NAP Implementation 265 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 The NAP Roadmap: Initial implementation324 Level of Lead Supporting Time Category Activity Potential indicators implementation agencies agencies scale Initiative 1 National Clearly define roles, responsibilities, and institutional arrangements for the NAP to mainstream adaptation and resilience (A&R) in the national agenda Governance Design national • Approved and CCC NAP NSC Q1 and level governing operational institutional DENR Members to Institutions structure and framework for Q2 coordinating implementing 2024 mechanism for the the NAP NAP, integrated, • Clearly demarcated and aligned with roles and existing adaptation responsibilities of mechanisms government units (e.g. Philippine and institutions Development Plan, • Designated National Climate decision-making body, Change Action technical working group, Plan, National data office, finance focal Adaptation Plan) entity, and focal climate change adaptation points in sectoral entities for the NAP implementation • Coordinating mechanisms seamlessly integrated with key country frameworks e.g., PDP 2023, NCCAP, NDC, etc. Define horizontal • Approved and CCC DILG Q3 (sectoral) and operational DENR RDC 2024 vertical (LGU) sectoral and LGU integration strategy integration strategy to embed LGUs for institutional in permanent arrangements institutional arrangement NAP Implementation 324 Immediate focus for first few years of the NAP implementation. Periodic progress assessments are essential during the NAP review phases to allow for necessary adjustments in the implementation plan, informed by valuable insights gained from practical experience. 266 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Level of Lead Supporting Time Category Activity Potential indicators implementation agencies agencies scale Initiative 2 National Enhance stakeholder engagement and communication strategies to amplify NAP awareness and understanding Stakeholder Identify • Key stakeholder groups CCC DILG Q4 engagement engagement gaps and their pain points DENR CHED 2023 and opportunities to and needs identified boost involvement and specified of key stakeholder • Roles, responsibilities, groups (e.g., private and coordinating sector, academia, mechanisms of vulnerable groups, stakeholder groups indigenous detailed communities, civil society groups, youth and elderly, etc.) Develop and • Simplified and CCC DILG Q1 deploy inclusive, abbreviated version of DENR CHED to collaborative, the NAP to summarize Q2 PCO understanda-ble, key insights relevant 2024 and transparent for sectoral and local DepEd stakeholder entities created engagement • Stakeholder strategy tailored for engagement strategy sectoral and local developed and entities to build operational awareness for the • Various and relevant NAP communication techniques used to engage specific stakeholder groups Initiative 3 Downscale climate analytics and enhance adaptation data management and application Climate Build new/ build • Downscaled climate DOST CCC Q4 Analytics on existing analytics for prioritized DENR 2023 sectors and provinces analytical models DILG to NAP Implementation (note: may first need downscaled to address concern DHSUD Q1 at a sectoral on limited observation PSA 2024 and local level, stations in the Philippines to fully translating climate downscale analytics) change data into actionable insights for sectors and LGUs 267 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Level of Lead Supporting Time Category Activity Potential indicators implementation agencies agencies scale Data and Stock-take and • Centralized climate DENR CCC Q4 knowledge encode existing information platform 2024 National PSA infrastructure climate data in developed DICT data lake • Existing climate data DOST collected and encoded into centralized database • Database and progress dashboard published and regularly updated Establish • User-friendly data DOST CCC Q2 well-defined and collection and DENR to user-friendly management protocols Q3 protocols for the developed and shared 2024 collection of climate information Initiative 4 Translate adaptation strategies into a sectoral-level program/project portfolio, prioritizing based on social, economic, and ecosystem benefits for informed decision-making Adaptation Leverage climate • Prioritized sectors CCC DA Q1 priorities analytics and identified, and DENR DOST to insights on social, phased approach Q2 DND-OCD economic, and to engage sectors 2025 ecosystem returns based on prioritization NEDA to prioritize most developed PSA exposed sectors DILG and develop DSWD phased approach to engage sectors Develop sectoral • Number of adaptation Sectoral CCC Q3 adaptation programs/projects agencies DENR to program/project developed by key NEDA Q4 portfolio, indicators, sectors NAP Implementation and implementation DA 2024 plan in line with DOE current and future DOTr sectoral plans and DOH priorities DTI DOLE DHSUD 268 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Level of Lead Supporting Time Category Activity Potential indicators implementation agencies agencies scale Initiative 5 National Develop a national adaptation investment strategy to mobilize resources needed for adaptation programs Adaptation Develop national • Approved and deployed CCC NEDA Q4 Financing investment and national adaptation DOF DSWD 2024 financing plan investment plan to to SEC assess bankability of Q2 sectoral adaptation DBM 2025 programs/ projects BSP • Contributions from domestic sources, private sector, development partners, and international funds Create investor • Database developed CCC Q2 database for and operational DOF 2025 climate risks and events Provide technical • Number of technical CCC Q2 assistance assistance programs DILG 2025 programs to • Awareness of relevant DOF to Q2 build awareness stakeholders 2026 and technical capabilities on adaptation financing Initiative 6 National and Local Translate adaptation strategies into a provincial-level program/project portfolio, prioritizing based on social, economic, and ecosystem benefits for informed decision-making Adaptation Leverage climate • Highly exposed local Sectoral DA Q1 priorities analytics and government units Agencies DILG to insights on social, (LGUs) prioritized and NAP Implementation DENR Q2 economic, and phased approach to CCC ecosystem returns engage LGUs based 2025 to prioritize most on prioritization exposed LGUs developed and develop phased approach in plan to cascade sectoral adaptation programs/projects 269 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Level of Lead Supporting Time Category Activity Potential indicators implementation agencies agencies scale Adaptation Cascade priority • Adaptation plans Sectoral DA Q3 priorities sectoral adaptation integrated with LCCAP Agencies 2025 National and Local DILG programs/projects • LGUs onboarded on onwd CCC to LGUs and equip sectoral adaptation with necessary DHSUD programs/projects capacity building DENR initiatives for NEDA implementation DOE DOTr DOH DTI DOLE Implement • Number of programs/ CCC, NAP-NSC Q4 adaptation projects implemented DILG 2025 programs/ by LGUs for onwd projects by LGUs, LCCA, supported by LGUs proper monitoring & feedback mechanisms Conduct localized • Number of CCC PCW Q4 consultation consultations DENR NCSC 2025 engagements, with vulnerable onwd NYC prioritizing communities vulnerable conducted NAPC communities, to NCDA tailor projects and address critical needs Initiative 7 Enhance capability building, research, and innovation on the topic of climate change adaptation Skills and Identify knowledge, • Knowledge, skill, CCC Q2 Capacity skill, and capacity and capacity gaps DENR 2024 building gaps in relation identified on national DILG to climate change and local level adaptation across NAP Implementation national and local entities Identify and • Adaptation champions CCC NAP-NSC Q2 promote from government DENR 2024 government and and non-government DILG non-government entities identified adaptation champions 270 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Level of Lead Supporting Time Category Activity Potential indicators implementation agencies agencies scale Technology Reform policies • Policies reformed to CCC DOST Q4 and to facilitate facilitate adaptation 2024 National and Local DENR innovation adaptation-related R&D and innovation onwd DOST R&D/innovation • Safeguards in place and guardrails to protect vulnerable protect vulnerable communities from communities potential consequences from undesired of adaptation solutions consequences of adaptation solutions Promote • Collaboration and CCC Q4 adaptation- networking among DENR 2024 focused R&D in the public and private onwd DOST collaboration with sector, civil society, non-state entities academia, NGOs, and other key stakeholders • Number of R&D concepts developed • Number of R&D concepts turned into viable projects Initiative 8 Develop effective MEAL system for climate change adaptation MEAL Develop a • MEAL indicators NEDA CCC Q3 framework in place for NAP DENR 2024 and specific implementation NAP NSC key indicators • Regular MEAL reports Members for adaptation at the national, local, monitoring, and project levels that evaluation, are shared with key assessment, stakeholders and learning • Iterations to NAP implementation based on MEAL that is aligned with reports and insights existing adaptation mechanisms and will be used for NAP Implementation knowledge sharing to key stakeholders and relayed to policymakers to iterate the NAP 271 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Level of Lead Supporting Time Category Activity Potential indicators implementation agencies agencies scale Initiative 9 International Align the National Adaptation Plan with the Glasgow-Sharm El-Sheikh Work Programme on the Global Goal on Adaptation International Identify linkage • Number of consultation CCC Members Q2 negotiation between the workshops with DFA of the to NAP and the agencies and Philippine Q3 GGA framework members of the Delegation 2024 and ensure the Philippine delegation to alignment of the to international UNFCCC NAP with the negotiations and events global framework relevant stakeholders and other in the succeeding • Iterations to the relevant iterations. NAP based on the stakeholders result of consultation workshops. 5.3 Monitoring, evaluation, accountability, and learning (MEAL) The NAP Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability, and 5.3.1 Purpose Learning (MEAL) refers to the systematic processes and tools to measure, evaluate, and disseminate the The NAP MEAL system strategically drives NAP action effectiveness of adaptation actions within the NAP. The plan implementation in the Philippines. It ensures MEAL system is composed of four key components timely delivery through clear ownership and monitoring. defined in this document as follows: Immediate indicators assess plan effectiveness, allowing early adjustments. Long-term impact indicators 1. Monitoring – continuous, routinary, and track adaptive capacity, resilience, and development systematic information collection and analysis to progress. It captures key learnings and science-based measure progress against key objectives. insights for ongoing improvement. 2. Evaluation - systematic and objective assessment of on-going or completed projects, programs, policies, etc. 3. Accountability - systematic processes & tools to guarantee ownership such as tracking, reporting, and well-defined roles and responsibilities. 4. Learning - systematic collection and sharing of NAP Implementation insights to enable continuous development. Coastal Clean Up in Leyte 272 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 5.3.2 Action plan The MEAL system action plan (see Figure 5.3.2.1) is guided by ten key principles emerging from best practices and key learnings from other NAPs. 1. Fit-for-purpose: Clarity of purpose is the 6. Built from existing: Leveraging current foundation. frameworks to avoid duplication. 2. Participatory: Engaging stakeholders in 7. Transparent: Openly sharing results and findings. continuous development. 8. Comprehensive: Showing adaptation progress 3. Strong government alignment: Aligning with with select indicators. key agencies. 9. Resource-efficient: Maximizing measurement 4. Strong ownership: Clearly defined roles and with minimal resources. responsibilities. 10. Progressive: Incorporating key learnings and 5. Socially inclusive: Capturing progress for scientific advancements. vulnerable groups. Figure 5.3.2.1 MEAL system action plan Design phase Objective-setting: The MEAL system design phase This evaluation will also consider globally recognized defines NAP objectives and scope. It ensures alignment climate actions and frameworks like Stocktaking for with national priorities and international goals. National Adaptation Planning (SNAP) tool; Progress, Tools and methodology: Key tools, methodologies, and Effectiveness, and Gaps (PEG), Pilot Program for Climate frameworks for the MEAL will be defined in alignment Resilience (PPCR) monitoring & reporting toolkit, and the with the set MEAL objectives. vulnerability sourcebook. Additionally, hybrid frameworks like Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development NAP Implementation To enrich the MEAL system, existing frameworks, (TAMD) Making Adaptation Count will be explored. In including the NCCAP RBMES, sector-specific addition, the MEAL strategy will align with international M&E frameworks, other existing action plans325 agreements such as the Global Goal on Adaptation. and any other future action plans will be assessed. 325 Examples: National Security Policy, Philippine Water Supply and Sanitation Master Plan, Philippine Action Plan for Sustainable Consumption and Production – PAP4SCP, Roadmap to institutionalize Natural Capital Accounting in the Philippines, National Renewable Energy Program 2020-2040, Philippine Energy Plan 2020-2040, and Philippine Development Plan 2023-2032 273 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Leveraging existing frameworks, especially at the national Execution phase level, will define MEAL levels and approaches. Once Implementation: The Philippines will calculate and established, linkages among relevant frameworks will allocate resources required for the NAP MEAL system. It identify critical gaps and guide the selection of suitable will collaborate with government bodies and educational tools. This may involve developing a national Theory institutions for upskilling programs, establishing clear of Change or strategic framework through extensive schedules and timelines for effective implementation. A consultations and stakeholder engagement. national entity will monitor MEAL progress. Indicators: To measure comprehensively, the Validation: The responsible bodies are tasked to Philippines will adapt (e.g., SDG indicators from NEDA) devise alternative information collection methodologies or develop indicators, considering key factors: to validate or triangulate findings from initially outlined 1. Aligning adaptation goals with chosen indicators approaches. Experts will be engaged to aid in creating 2. Optimizing indicators for cost-effective monitoring. and implementing these triangulation methodologies. 3. Ensuring comprehensive indicators to avoid Dissemination: The Philippines will create feedback misinterpretation. and insights mechanisms to facilitate cross-body 4. Choosing indicators that are easily understood learning, ensuring local experiences and indigenous and accepted by NAP stakeholders. knowledge are shared and scaled. It will collaborate with higher education institutions to disseminate research 5. Maintaining flexibility for evolving science and findings for NAP strategies. learning from adaptation actions. Selected indicators will have defined measurement methods, such as manual tracking, proxy data use, interviews, analysis, aggregation, or a hybrid approach. Each indicator will have designated owners for regular updates. Baseline methods for these indicators will NAP Implementation be established using secondary data, interviews, assessments, or a combination, forming the foundation for progress measurement in the NAP. 274 National Adaptation Plan 2023 - 2050 Port in Cebu City 5.3.3 NAP revisions and updates The NAP is a dynamic document influenced by insights from the MEAL system. In the early years, frequent assessments will focus on building a strong national adaptation infrastructure. The intermediate assessment on the third year or earlier may be adjusted based on activity outcomes. This aligns with changes in local administration. From the second NAP version onward, updates occur every five years, aligning with national strategy document reviews, and national administrative changes. (see Table 5.3.3.1). Table 5.3.3.1. NAP revisioning and updating cadences. Activity Responsible Entity Frequency NAP local and sectoral process Respective LGUs and agencies with guidance of Annually or as review and monitoring NEDA and CCC necessary National process review, NAP focal entity guided by CCC & NEDA Annually or as monitoring, and assessment necessary Mid-term detailed NAP NAP focal entity, CCC, and NEDA Every 3 progress assessment years or as necessary NAP Implementation NAP document updating NAP focal entity, CCC, and NEDA Every 5 years or as necessary 275