Updated Nationally Determined Contribution 2021

1. Quantified information on the reference point, including, as appropriate, a base year a. Reference year(s), base year(s), reference The mitigation target is against the 2010 greenhouse gas emissions. period(s) or other starting point(s) b. Quantifiable information on the reference St. Kitts and Nevis’ greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were estimated to be 253 indicators, their values in the reference year(s), GgCO2e. base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year c. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Not applicable. Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or policies and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information d. Target relative to the reference indicator, St. Kitts and Nevis pledges a 61% total CO2 emissions reduction against a 2010 base expressed numerically, for example in percentage year. or amount of reduction e. Information on sources of data used in The sources of data used in quantifying the reference points are as follows: quantifying the reference point(s) ● The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions for the Federation of St. Kitts and Nevis ● St. Kitts Electric Company Limited (SKELEC) annual reports ● Nevis Electric Company Limited (NEVLEC) annual reports ● Deloitte report on Technical Assistance for Power Sector Development in St. Kitts and Nevis, 2017 ● International Energy Agency (IEA) ● International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) report on Assessment of cost-effective mitigation options to inform the update of the NDC, 2021 Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 20 f. Information on the circumstances under which the The 2010 base year data may be recalculated and updated through continuous Party may update the values of the reference methodological improvement and inclusion of the AFOLU, IPPU and Waste sectors. indicators Information on updates may be included in the Biennial Update Reports and National Communications.

2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation a. Time frame and/or period for implementation, The target is an expansion of efforts from the first NDC and addresses the 2021-2030 including start and end date, consistent with any period. further relevant decision adopted by the CMA; b. Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, A single-year target for 2030. as applicable.

3. Scope and coverage a. General description of the target; St. Kitts and Nevis' economy-wide target will reduce CO2 emissions by 61% by 2030 relative to 2010, mostly conditional upon adequate international financial and capacity building support through the following interventions: ● Transition to 100% renewable energy in power generation* ● Improve efficiency in transmission and distribution of electricity ● Electrification of 2% of the total vehicle ● Development of EV infrastructure *35 MW of renewable energy will be sourced from a solar farm that will be constructed through private capital, beyond which, all other interventions are conditional. b. Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered Sectors: by the nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with IPCC ● All sectors, with a focus on the energy sector (power generation and guidelines; transportation) Gases: ● Carbon dioxide (CO2) Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 21 c. How the Party has taken into consideration As per paragraph 31(c) of decision 1/CP.21, St. Kitts and Nevis is only covering carbon paragraphs 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21; dioxide emissions due to insufficient data availability for the other greenhouse gases. St. Kitts and Nevis is focusing on the energy sector as it is a major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in the country and has the largest potential for emissions reduction. d. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for St. Kitts and Nevis (2018) adaptation actions and/or economic diversification includes mitigation co-benefits where possible, by prioritizing adaptation measures that plans, including description of specific projects, minimize greenhouse gas emissions and enhance natural ecosystems functioning as measures and initiatives of Parties’ adaptation carbon sinks. actions and/or economic diversification plans. Additional mitigation co-benefits within adaptation projects will be captured through the data collection framework and GHG inventory, and reported in the respective sectors.

4. Planning Process a. Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its NDC and, if available, on the Party’s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: i. Domestic institutional arrangements, public The Department of Environment of St. Kitts and Nevis co-led three sessions to present, participation and engagement with local discuss and validate the methodology used for the technical analysis to set the communities and indigenous peoples, in a mitigation target(s). These sessions were held with key national stakeholders to gather gender-responsive manner; feedback and ensure that the analysis aligned with national plans and priorities. Participants included energy and power sector stakeholders from public organizations such as representatives from the Department of Environment -- Ministry of Environment and Cooperatives, Ministry of Public Infrastructure -- Energy unit, Nevis Electricity Company Limited (NEVLEC), St. Kitts Electricity Company (SKELEC), Traffic Department, Inland Revenue Department, as well as other relevant policy makers. The first validation session was held in February 2021, and the last one in June 2021. National stakeholders prepared feedback and comments, including the Department of Environment, the Energy Unit, and both utilities to ensure accuracy for setting the mitigation target(s). Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 22 During the planning process a review on the gender aspects of the NDC and gender- responsive considerations for the NDC Implementation Plan and Financing strategy was performed by the NDC-P Support Unit to support a gender-responsive implementation of the NDC. ii. Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate:

1. National circumstances, such as geography, Geography: St. Kitts and Nevis is a small island developing state comprising two climate, economy, sustainable development and islands of the Lesser Antilles in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. St. Kitts, the larger island, poverty eradication; is 37 km long with an area of 176 km2. Nevis is almost circular in shape with an area of 93 km2. The estimated population of St. Kitts and Nevis in 2020 was 53,821, with about 20% of the total population residing in Nevis. Climate: St. Kitts and Nevis has a tropical maritime climate with an average temperature of 27.8 degrees Celsius with low seasonal variations. The wet season is from August to September. Precipitation is strongly related to altitude; mountain ranges receive an annual average of 2,500-4,000 mm, and coastal areas receive an annual average of 1,061 mm. The islands lie in the northeast trade wind belt; hurricane season is between June to November, where low-pressure systems and tropical disturbances pass through the area. St. Kitts and Nevis is vulnerable to climate change -- localized events of extreme rainfall, hotter days and nights, sea-level rise and extensive droughts suggest a more extreme climate throughout the region. These unprecedented threats are compounded by a limited capacity to forecast climate hazards. Climate data in the Caribbean face challenges related to a lack of sufficient weather and climatological stations, automated reporting of weather stations, and monitoring of critical variables for long timescales of 30 years or more. Economy: St. Kitts and Nevis is classified as a high-income country and had a GDP of USD 1.053 billion in 2019 (World Bank). The country has continued to make strides in economic progress. Between 2015 and 2019 the nation’s GDP per capita increased from US $18,000 to US $19,000. This economic advancement comes despite major setbacks by disasters including hurricanes Maria and Irma in September 2017, and the strongest El Niño event from 2014 to 2016 in the past century. The tourism industry is Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 23 the main economic contributor, and is a strategy to diversify away from an economy historically reliant on agriculture, especially the sugar industry until 2005. Construction, banking and export-oriented manufacturing are growing and significant sectors. In 2016, the tourism sector contributed about 7.2% to the total GDP.

2. Best practices and experience related to the The revised NDC builds on existing data and the revision process engaged more preparation of the NDC; stakeholders than for the first NDC, including the utilities companies for both St. Kitts and Nevis, the Ministry of Tourism and Transport. In addition, the revision process included collaboration with a suite of international partners with diverse expertise to deliver a more comprehensive and robust NDC as well as an Implementation Plan and Financing Strategy. a. Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement; b. Specific information applicable to Parties, St. Kitts and Nevis is not part of an agreement to act jointly under Article 4 of the Paris including regional economic integration Agreement. organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16–18, of the Paris Agreement; c. How the Party’s preparation of its NDC has been The first global stocktake will take place in 2023 and St. Kitts and Nevis is committed to informed by the outcomes of the global implementation, monitoring and evaluation to inform the progress on the targets stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, proposed in the NDC. paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement; d. Each Party with an NDC under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on: i. How the economic and social consequences of St. Kitts and Nevis considered all social, economic and environmental impacts of the response measures have been considered in mitigation and adaptation measures in developing the NDC targets developing the NDC; ii. Specific projects, measures and activities to be Please see 3(d) above. Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 24 implemented to contribute to mitigation co- benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries.

5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: a. Assumptions and methodological approaches The assumptions were based on a sectoral breakdown of emissions provided in the used for accounting for anthropogenic Second National Communication, which used the 1996 IPCC Guidelines that have greenhouse gas emissions and removals since been supplanted by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. corresponding to the Party’s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 1/CP.21, In accordance with the Second National Communication, it was assumed that 60% of paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted all emissions come from power generation, 30% from transportation, and 10% from by the CMA; remaining activities. There is no historical emissions inventory for the IPPU and Waste sectors, and the AFOLU emissions were only available through an estimation based on neighboring countries, therefore, the emissions estimate is possibly an under- estimation of real emissions. In addition, the methodological approach considers emissions factors calculated by the UNFCCC technical team. b. Assumptions and methodological approaches See 5(a) above. St. Kitts and Nevis will also apply specific assumptions and used for accounting for the implementation of methodologies where relevant, when accounting for the progress of various policies policies and measures or strategies in the and measures in its Biennial Update Report or Biennial Transparency Report. nationally determined contribution; The identification and revision of suitable mitigation options was conducted through a consultative process with key national stakeholders such as the Department of Environment, the Energy Unit and representatives from both utilities. Mitigation options were identified from the first NDC as well as other national plans, on-going projects, and current investment plans of the Government. Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 25 c. If applicable, information on how the Party will See 5(a) above. take into account existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; d. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for St. Kitts and Nevis’ emissions for CO2 will be derived using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; e. Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: i. Approach to addressing emissions and Not applicable. subsequent removals from natural disturbances on managed lands; ii. Approach used to account for emissions and Not applicable. removals from harvested wood products; iii. Approach used to address the effects of age- Not applicable. class structure in forests; f. Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including: i. How the reference indicators, baseline(s) Please see 5 (a-e). and/or reference level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- or activity-specific reference levels, are constructed, including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; ii. For Parties with nationally determined Not applicable. contributions that contain non-greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 26 iii. For climate forcers included in nationally Not applicable. determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; iv. Further technical information, as necessary; Not applicable. g. The intention to use voluntary cooperation St. Kitts and Nevis currently does not use any market mechanism but is willing to under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if explore its potential under the UNFCCC process. applicable.

6. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances a. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and St. Kitts and Nevis’ revised NDC is fair and ambitious. The revised NDC target of a ambitious in the light of its national 61% reduction of greenhouse emissions against base year 2010 is consistent with the circumstances; IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 ℃. This special report shows pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 ℃ with no or limited overshoot. Pathways that describe a 40-50% reduction in net anthropogenic GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, and net anthropogenic CO2 emissions reaching net zero around 2050. b. Fairness considerations, including reflecting on Please refer to 6(a) above. equity; c. How the Party has addressed Article 4, The emissions reductions are a strengthening of the indicative ambitious 2030 NDC paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement; target submitted in 2016. Compared to the absolute emissions target in the first NDC, this revised NDC represents a significant enhancement of ambition. Under the targets proposed in this revised NDC, St. Kitts and Nevis expects its total emissions to decrease from 253 GgCO2e (2010 estimate) to 124 GgCO2e within the energy sector. This translates to an effective 61% emissions reduction against the 2010 base year emissions. In addition to the increase in mitigation ambition, the submission of this revised NDC is an enhancement in the following ways: ● St. Kitts and Nevis has moved from a BAU approach to a base year approach ● St. Kitts and Nevis has strengthened the adaptation, loss and damage, and gender components of the NDC Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 27 While national efforts are underway and will continue to be exerted toward emission reduction, in accordance with the obligation of developed countries under the UNFCCC Convention and the Articles of the Paris Agreement, St. Kitts and Nevis anticipates implementing the NDC through access to multilateral and bilateral support including through the Green Climate Fund, multilateral agencies and bilateral arrangements with development partners. These funds will be used to leverage the limited national resources and technical capacities that are available for combating climate change. d. How the Party has addressed Article 4, The ambition of this target has to be considered amidst the backdrop of the country’s paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement; small, open economy and limitations in natural, financial, technological and human resources to implement the measures necessary to achieve the intended emissions reductions. e. How the Party has addressed Article 4, As a SIDS considering Article 4, paragraph 6, St. Kitts and Nevis has the option to paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement; prepare and communicate strategies, plans and actions reflecting its special circumstance. In light of the country’s commitment to limiting increases in global average temperatures to well below 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels, it has submitted a quantifiable target as outlined in 1(b) above. This revised NDC also includes a comprehensive adaptation component that communicates the adaptation activities and actions that the country will undertake.

7. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objectives of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 a. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the See 6(a) above. St. Kitts and Nevis considers the ambitious nature of this revised NDC objective of the Convention as set out in its Article to be in line with Article 2 of the Convention. 2; b. How the NDC contributes towards Article 2, See 6(a) above. paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement. Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of St. Kitts and Nevis 28