Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

1. GHG emissions and removals

1. GHG emissions reductions (1) Energy-Originated CO2 Approximately 90% of GHG emissions in Japan is covered by energy-originated CO2. Emissions of energy-originated CO2 will be reduced by 25.0% compared to FY 2013 level (24.0% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 927 million t-CO2). The estimated emissions in FY 2030 in each sector are shown in Table 1. Table 1 Estimated emissions of energy-originated CO2 in each sector Estimated emissions of each FY 2013（FY 2005） sector in FY 2030 Energy originated 927 1,235（1,219） CO2 Industry 401 429 （457） Commercial and 168 279 （239） other Residential 122 201 （180） Transport 163 225 （240） Energy conversion 73 101 （104） ［Value：million t-CO2］ (2) Non-energy originated CO2 The target is set as 6.7% reduction compared to FY 2013 level (17.0% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 70.8 million t-CO2). (3) Methane The target is set as 12.3% reduction compared to FY 2013 level (18.8% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 31.6 million t-CO2eq.). (4) Nitrous oxide The target is set as 6.1% reduction compared to FY 2013 level (17.4% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 21.1 million t-CO2eq.). Table 2 Estimated emissions of non-energy-originated CO2, methane and nitrous oxide Estimated emissions of each gas FY 2013（FY 2005） in FY 2030 Non-energy 70.8 75.9 （85.4） originated CO2 Methane（CH4） 31.6 36.0 （39.0） Nitrous oxide 21.1 22.5 （25.5） （N2O） ［value：Million t-CO2eq.］ (5) Fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3) The target is set as 25.1% reduction compared to Calendar Year(CY) 2013 level (4.5% increase compared to CY 2005 level) (approximately 28.9 million t-CO2eq.). Table 3 Estimated emissions of fluorinated gases Estimated emissions CY 2013（CY 2005） in CY 2030 Fluorinated 28.9 38.6 （27.7） gases HFCs 21.6 31.8 （12.7） PFCs 4.2 3.3 （8.6） SF6 2.7 2.2 （5.1） NF3 0.5 1.4 （1.2） ［value：Million t-CO2eq.］ * Fluorinated gases are estimated on a CY basis. 2．Removals by LULUCF The target for removals is set as approximately 37 million t-CO2 (corresponding to 2.6% reduction of total emissions in FY 2013 (corresponding to 2.6% reduction of total emissions in FY 2005)) (approximately 27.8 million t-CO2 by forest carbon sinks measures (corresponding to 2.0% of total emissions in FY 2013 (corresponding to 2.0% reduction of total emissions in FY 2005)), and approximately 9.1 million t-CO2 by cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation (corresponding to 0.6% reduction of total emissions in FY 2013 (corresponding to 0.7% reduction of total emissions in FY 2005))). 3．JCM and other international contributions Japan establishes and implements the JCM in order both to appropriately evaluate contributions from Japan to GHG emission reductions or removals in a quantitative manner achieved through the diffusion of low carbon technologies, products, systems, services, and infrastructure as well as implementation of mitigation actions in developing countries, and to use them to achieve Japan’s emission reduction target. Apart from contributions achieved through private-sector based projects, accumulated emission reductions or removals by FY 2030 through governmental JCM programs to be undertaken within the government's annual budget are estimated to be ranging from 50 to 100 million t-CO2. As part of international contributions other than the JCM, worldwide emission reduction potential in FY 2030 through the diffusion of leading technologies by Japanese industries’ actions is estimated to be at least 1 billion t-CO2. Japan will also actively contribute internationally towards, inter alia, human resource development and promotion of development and diffusion of technologies relating to emission reductions in developing countries.

2. Energy mix used for the bottom-up calculation of the emission reduction target FY 2030 ●Final energy consumption 326 M kl (Energy efficiency measures) 50 M kl ●Total power generation approx. 1065 billion kWh Renewables approx. 22-24% Nuclear power approx. 22-20% Coal approx. 26% LNG approx. 27% Oil approx. 3% (within renewables) Solar approx. 7.0% Wind power approx. 1.7% Geothermal approx. 1.0-1.1% Hydro power approx. 8.8-9.2% Biomass approx. 3.7-4.6%

3. Measures which form the basis for the bottom-up calculation of the GHG emission reduction target FY 2030 emission FY 2013 (FY 2005) Measures targets (million t-CO２) (million t-CO２) Energy-originated 927 1,235 (1,219) CO２ Industry 401 429 (457)  Promotion and enhancement of the industries’ sector action plans towards a low carbon society Iron and steel industry  Efficiency improvement of electricity-consuming facilities  More chemical recycling of waste plastic at steel plants  Introduction of next-generation coke making process (SCOPE21)  Improvement of power generation efficiency  Enhanced energy efficiency and conservation facilities  Introduction of innovative ironmaking process (Ferro Coke)  Introduction of environmentally harmonized steelmaking process (COURSE50) Chemical industry  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation process technology in petrochemicals  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation process technology in other chemical industry  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation technology using membranes for distilling process  Introduction of technology which uses CO2 as a feedstock  Introduction of chemical product production technology with inedible plant-based material  Introduction of electricity-generating waste water processing with microbe catalysis  Introduction of sealed plant factory Ceramics, stone and clay products industry  Introduction of conventional energy efficiency and conservation technologies (waste heat power generation, slag crusher, air-beam cooler, separator improvement, vertical roller coal mills)  Introduction of technology for using waste (e.g. waste plastic, etc.) as alternative thermal energy  Introduction of innovative cement production process  Introduction of glass melting process Pulp/paper/paper products manufacture industry  Introduction of high-efficient pulp production technology using old paper  Introduction of high-temperature and pressure recovery boilers Cross-sectoral/Other  Introduction of high-efficient air conditioner  Introduction of industrial HP (heating-drying)  Introduction of industrial light  Introduction of low-carbon industrial furnace  Introduction of industrial motor  Introduction of high performance boiler  Direct use of recycled plastic flakes  Introduction of hybrid construction machine, etc.  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation farming machinery  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation equipment in horticultural facility  Switch to energy efficiency and conservation fishing vessels  Promotion of cooperative energy efficiency and conservation measures across the industries  Promote low-carbonization in special vehicles Factory energy management  Thorough implementation of energy management in the industry sector Commercial 168 279 (239)  Promotion of compliance of energy saving and other standards for newly constructed buildings sectors  Energy efficiency and conservation buildings (remodeling)  Introduction of commercial-use water heater (latent heat collection water heater, commercial-use heat pump water heater, high-efficient boiler)  Introduction of highly efficient light  Introduction of refrigerant control technology (F-gases)  Improvement of energy efficiency and conservation performance of equipment by the top runner program, etc.  Thorough implementation of energy management in commercial sector with BEMS and energy efficiency diagnosis  Efficient use of light  Promotion of nationwide campaigns (thorough promotion of Cool Biz/Warm Biz, repair of local government buildings)  Expansion of shared use of energy  Promotion of measures for energy efficiency and conservation of/energy generation from sewerage systems  Promotion of measures for energy efficiency and conservation/renewable energy in water business  Promotion of activities based on action plans of local governments (administrative business section)  Promotion of sorted collection and recycling of plastic containers and packaging  Low-carbonization of cities by improving urban thermal environments through measures against the urban heat island effect  Promotion of inter-ministry collaborative measures following the Roadmap of Global Warming Counter-measures, etc. Residential 122 201 (180)  Promotion of compliance of energy saving sector standards for newly constructed housing  Promotion thermal insulation in renovation of existing houses  Introduction of high-efficient water heater (CO2 refrigerant HP water heater, latent heat collection water heater, fuel cell, solar water heater)  Introduction of high-efficient light  Improvement of energy efficiency and conservation performance of equipment by the top runner program, etc.  Thorough implementation of energy management in houses with HEMS and other smart meters  Promotion of nationwide campaigns (thorough promotion of Cool Biz/Warm Biz, and encouragement of purchase of upgraded, Home CO2 advisor)  Increasing Johkasou energy efficiency and conservation  Promotion of inter-ministry collaborative measures following the Roadmap of Global Warming Counter-measures, etc. Transport 163 225 (240)  Improvement of fuel efficiency sector  Promotion of next-generation automobiles  Other measures in transport sector (traffic flow improvement, promotion of public transport, modal shift to railway, comprehensive measure for eco-friendly ship transportation, reduction of land transportation distance by selecting nearest port, comprehensive low-carbonization at ports, optimization of truck transport, energy consumption efficiency improvement of railways, energy consumption efficiency improvement of aviation, accelerated promotion of energy saving ships, making vehicle transport business more eco-friendly by eco-driving, promotion of collective shipment, promotion of Intelligent Transport Systems ITS (centralized control of traffic signals), development of traffic safety facilities (improvement of traffic signals, and promotion of the use of LED traffic lights), promotion of automatic driving, eco-driving and car sharing)  Utilization of the special zones system for structural reform for global warming measures  Promotion of inter-ministry collaborative measures following roadmap of global warming measures, etc. Energy 73 101 (104)  Expanding renewable energy introduction to the conversion maximum extent possible sector  Utilizing nuclear power generations whose safety is confirmed  Pursuit of high efficiency in thermal power generation (USC, A-USC, IGCC, etc.) Cross-sectional ― ― (―)  Promotion of the J-Credit Scheme strategies FY 2030 FY 2013 emission (FY 2005) targets Measures (million (million t-CO2eq.) t-CO2eq.) Non 70.8 75.9  Expansion of blended cement use energy-originated (85.4)  Reduction of municipal solid waste incineration CO2 CH4 31.6 36.0  Measures to reduce CH4 emissions from agricultural soils (39.0) (reduction of CH4 emissions from paddy rice fields)  Reduction of municipal solid waste disposed of by direct landfill  Introduction of semi-aerobic landfill system for final disposal site of municipal solid waste N2O 21.1 22.5  Measures to reduce N2O emissions from agricultural soils (25.5) (reduction of N2O emissions originated from fertilizer application)  Promote the advanced technologies in the sewage sludge incineration facilities Fluorinated gases 28.9 38.6  Measures to control overall emissions of fluorinated gases (Act (27.7) on Rational Use and Proper Management of Fluorocarbons, HFCs 21.6 31.8 emission control through industries’ voluntary action plans, (12.7) etc.) PFCs 4.2 3.3 (8.6) SF6 2.7 2.2 (5.1) NF3 0.5 1.4 (1.2) FY 2030 FY 2013 removals (FY 2005) targets Measures (million (million t-CO2) t-CO2) LULUCF sector 37.0 ― (―)  Promote measures for greenhouse gas removals through the Forest 27.8 ― (―) promotion of forest management/forestry industry measures management  Promotion of soil management leading to the increase of carbon Cropland 7.9 ― (―) stock in cropland management  Promotion of revegetation /Grazing land management Revegetation 1.2 ― (―)