Ireland’s Long-term Strategy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction 2024

Ireland’s Long-term Strategy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction 2024 i Table of Contents Table of Contents ................................................................................................................... i 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 National and EU Legal Requirements ................................................................................ 2 Public Consultation ............................................................................................................ 3 2. International and EU Framework for Climate Action ....................................................... 4 International Context ......................................................................................................... 4 European Context ............................................................................................................. 6 EU Governance and Accounting........................................................................................ 8 Security of Supply ............................................................................................................. 9 3. Policy to Date and Expected Impact of Planned Policies .............................................. 12 Trends in Ireland’s Emissions to Date.............................................................................. 12 Ireland’s National Climate Objective ................................................................................ 14 4. Pathways to Climate Neutrality which Create the Least Burden and Offer the Most Opportunity for Ireland ........................................................................................................ 18 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 18 Potential Pathway to Climate Neutrality ........................................................................... 19 Sector Abatement Ambition ............................................................................................. 19 5. Costs, Benefits and Opportunities of Climate Neutrality for Ireland ............................ 21 Investment Needed ......................................................................................................... 21 Measures to Deliver Targets ............................................................................................ 24 Socio-economic Aspects ................................................................................................. 26 Benefits of Action ............................................................................................................ 26 Risks of Inaction .............................................................................................................. 28 6. Citizen Engagement, Community Leadership and Just Transition ................................... 29 Just Transition ................................................................................................................. 29 Citizen Engagement ........................................................................................................ 31 ii 7. Carbon Pricing and Cross-cutting Policies ...................................................................... 32 8. Pathways to Climate Neutrality by Sector ........................................................................ 37 8.1 Electricity .............................................................................................................. 37 8.2 Industry ................................................................................................................. 44 8.3 Built Environment .................................................................................................. 49 8.4 Transport .............................................................................................................. 54 8.5 Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use ....................................................................... 62 9. The Circular and Bioeconomy ......................................................................................... 71 State of Play .................................................................................................................... 72 Pathway to 2030 .............................................................................................................. 73 Pathway to Climate Neutrality by 2050 ............................................................................ 73 10. Adaptation to Climate Change....................................................................................... 75 Climate Change Impacts ................................................................................................. 75 EU Context ...................................................................................................................... 77 Irish Context .................................................................................................................... 78 Climate Change Impacts Towards 2050 .......................................................................... 79 Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment ............................................................................ 80 Climate Data and Information .......................................................................................... 81 National Adaptation Policy ............................................................................................... 84 National Adaptation Framework....................................................................................... 85 1 1. Introduction Climate breakdown threatens the continued safe existence of humanity on our planet. Responding to it requires urgent and accelerated collective action at all levels of our society and economy, involving significant shifts in individual, household, business and public sector behaviour and investment decisions, underpinned by an optimal mix of Exchequer investment, fiscal incentives and regulation. It requires forward thinking out to 2050 and beyond, including the specification of concrete science-based targets, and the development and relentless implementation of comprehensive strategies and action plans that can enable us to meet our near- and long term objectives. While recognising that longer timeframes involve greater uncertainty, it remains vital that we map a pathway to climate neutrality based on the best available scientific, sociological and economic knowledge. This is an ongoing endeavour of which this long-term strategy is a key step. Its purpose is to build on the targets, policies, measures and actions we have already committed to in the period to 2030 as set out in successive annual national Climate Action Plans and our EU National Energy and Climate Plans. Addressing the longer-term perspective, to 2050 and beyond, is important in the context of technology development, regulatory certainty, and early engagement on the way forward in our shared endeavour of transformative, social and economic change. Without urgent action, threats to a stable climate will reach irreversible tipping points that will irreparably undermine our current social and economic models. Taking action in response to the climate challenge presents an opportunity to embrace technological change and the urgent imperative to transition to a low-carbon economy. Embracing new decarbonised and circular economic models will support innovation, a mobilised labour force with the necessary skills, and a high productivity enterprise sector. Recognising that the impacts of climate change can vary across different regions, ages, income groups and genders, targeted policy interventions will be required to ensure a just transition for all, including rural communities, impacted industries and businesses, and those in poverty. A gender-responsive approach and the needs of people with disabilities, including the risks they face, must also be incorporated within Ireland’s climate action to support the principles of just transition and address the differentiated impacts faced by the different groups within our society. 2 National and EU Legal Requirements Preparation of a long-term climate strategy is a requirement of both national, EU and international law. Ireland’s Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 to 2021, (the Climate Act) places on a statutory basis “the National Climate Objective”, that “the State shall, so as to reduce the extent of further global warming, pursue and achieve, by no later than the end of the year 2050, the transition to a climate resilient, biodiversity rich, environmentally sustainable and climate neutral economy”. The Climate Act also provides for a 51% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 compared to 2018 levels, and puts in place a rigorous governance structure, including a system of carbon budgeting, sectoral emissions ceilings, annual Climate Action Plans, and Long-term Climate Action Strategies to be updated at least once every five years, to ensure that Ireland achieves its national, EU and international climate commitments in the near- and long-term. At EU level, and in line with Article 4 of the Paris Agreement and with Article 15 of the EU Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, this long-term strategy sets out Ireland’s 2050 climate action targets and describes sector-specific pathways to reaching those targets.1 This Long-term Climate Action Strategy is the first prepared under our national Climate Act, and it will be reviewed and updated as appropriate, including by no later than 2029. It will also be submitted to the EU Commission under the Governance Regulation as Ireland’s latest long-term strategy.2 The strategy has been prepared to meet both sets of legal requirements and is consistent with Climate Action Plan 2024. Achieving our National Climate Objective will mean that Ireland will have no further negative impacts on the climate system by no later than mid-century. This represents an extremely ambitious target for Ireland to meet over the next three decades, but one which is in line with scientific evidence, our legal commitments, and the scale and severity of climate breakdown facing the international community. Our ambition underscores Ireland’s commitment to showing leadership on climate action. 1 (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 2 It should be noted that under the Governance Regulation, EU Member States must review their long-term climate strategies every 10 years, with the next due in 2029 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.L .2018.328.01.0001.01.ENG 3 Public Consultation In line with Regulation (EU) 2018/1999, a public consultation3 was held to seek views from industry, stakeholders and members of the public as part of the development of Ireland’s long-term strategy. This consultation built on an earlier one conducted in 2019, where respondents were asked to consider questions on key areas to be addressed in the long term strategy around the potential decarbonisation pathway options available to Ireland to mid-century, including in relation to the energy system, sector-specific considerations, and ensuring a just transition. The public consultation was open for submissions from 19 May 2023 until 7 July 2023. 69 submissions were received from a wide range of stakeholders, including members of the public, commercial organisations and industry groups, public bodies, and NGOs. Of these responses, 26 were from individual members of the public, 10 were from NGOs, and the remaining 33 were from commercial organisations and industry groups. The submissions received through both consultations informed the development of this strategy. 3 An overview of responses received will be published separately online 4 2. International and EU Framework for Climate Action Changes to the climate system as a result of human activity have already resulted in an observed global average temperature increase of more than 1⁰C since pre-industrial times. In a recent survey of top scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 77% said they believe that global temperatures will rise at least 2.5⁰C above preindustrial levels this century, with a consensus the world is already moving past the 1.5⁰C target previously identified as a guiding star for international climate negotiations. Beyond this, every incremental increase in warming will intensify extreme weather events and have significant adverse impacts in Ireland, and globally, especially in countries more exposed and less able than we are to withstand these impacts. Climate change, as a transboundary challenge, can only be addressed through committed ambition and effective multilateral cooperation at the international level. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an international treaty that entered into force in 1994, provides the framework for addressing climate change. Two major subsidiary agreements under the UNFCCC are the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, both designed to help stabilise greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. Ireland is a Party to these agreements and engages in negotiations under the UNFCCC through its membership of the EU. International Context The IPCC, which is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, prepares and publishes every 5 to 7 years comprehensive scientific assessment reports. The IPCC is currently in its Seventh assessment cycle, which formally began in July 2023. The IPCC’s latest report – the Sixth Assessment Report – was completed in March 2023, with the release of its Synthesis Report. This Synthesis Report distils and integrates the findings of three Working Group assessments as well as three Special Reports released in 2018 and 2019, providing direct scientific input to the first global stocktake process under the UNFCCC at COP28.4 The IPCC reports highlight the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5⁰C to ensure that current and future generations can live sustainably on a stable and climate-resilient planet. 4 Further details and links to all reports can be found on the IPCC webpage: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ 5 The reports highlight the need for immediate global action to reduce emissions and to slow the impact of climate change to meet the Paris Agreement objectives of: • Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2⁰C above pre industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5⁰C above pre industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; • Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production and that allows sustainable transformation and system transitions in energy, ecosystems and infrastructure; • Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. The IPCC reports confirm the necessity for global emissions of CO2 to reach net zero in this century in order to limit climate change to 1.5⁰C or 2⁰C, and that they must reach net zero around mid-century to have a high probability of limiting global warming to 1.5⁰C. The IPCC assessment reports also considered long-term trajectories for global emissions of nitrous oxide and methane and found that most scenarios which stay within global warming of 1.5⁰C require very significant reduction in emissions of these gases but that global emissions do not need to reach zero nor would it be feasible for them to do so. The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) meets annually to take decisions to support the effective implementation of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. The overarching decision from the 28th meeting (COP28), the UAE Consensus, reaffirms the Signatories commitment to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. COP28, which took place end 2023, saw the conclusion of the first in a series of Global Stocktakes (GST 2021 – 2023) to assess global progress on implementing the Paris Agreement, notably in three thematic areas: adaptation, mitigation, and means of implementation. The first Global Stocktake found that the world is currently not on track to meet its target. For the first time in a UNFCCC decision, the GST called on Parties to transition away from fossil fuels to reach net zero, as part of a number of other mitigation actions, including a specific target to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030 and the phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. It also encouraged Parties to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that 6 were ambitious and had economy-wide emissions reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories, and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 ⁰C. In addition, COP28 saw the historic decision on the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage fund and secured $792 million of early pledges. The fund aims to assist developing countries vulnerable to climate change impacts in responding to economic and non-economic loss and damage. The Paris Agreement and the United Nations’ Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals recognise that the impacts of climate change will be felt by all, but that these impacts will be uneven. Vulnerable communities and people around the world – in particular women and girls – face devastating impacts to their livelihoods and greater challenges in adapting to the long-term effects of climate breakdown. Ireland recognises both the right and responsibility of all countries to pursue low-carbon, climate-resilient development, and is supporting initiatives – within the framework of both the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals – to support developing countries in achieving these objectives. In light of this, our clear ambition is to continue to deliver a step-change in our emissions performance over the coming decade, so that we will not only meet our EU targets for 2030 but will also be well placed to meet our mid-century National Climate Objective. Ireland’s policy for international development, A Better World, recognises the threat that climate change presents to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, and identifies climate action as a major priority. Our international climate finance is targeted at helping the poorest and most vulnerable to adapt to climate impacts with a focus on leaving no one behind, and on gender-sensitive and locally led climate action. Ireland has committed to increasing our climate finance to at least €225 million per annum by 2025 to support these objectives. In July 2022, Ireland published its International Climate Finance Roadmap which illustrates Ireland’s plans for scaling up its international climate financing to meet this target through public sources of finance. Levels of support will continue to be measured in Ireland’s annual Climate Finance Report. European Context The EU and Member States contribute to their commitments under the UNFCCC collectively, with the EU putting legislation in place to ensure it delivers on its and Member States’ commitments as a bloc. 7 In its 2018 Communication A Clean Planet for All, the European Commission set out its vision for a climate-neutral EU and explored pathways that would enable the EU to achieve climate neutrality by mid-century in line with the Paris Agreement. The European Green Deal, published in December 2019, set out a low emissions growth strategy to transform the EU into a fair and prosperous society, with a modern, resource efficient and competitive economy, where there are no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050, where economic growth is decoupled from resource use, and where no person and no place is left behind.5 The European Green Deal set out the EU’s overall ambition on climate action, as well as a policy and legislative programme for key economic sectors to deliver on that ambition, including the energy, transport, agriculture, industry, buildings, and finance sectors. The Green Deal also addresses wider environmental ambition, such as biodiversity protection; action on chemicals; and policies addressing pollution to air, water and soils. Mainstreaming sustainability within the European Union is being pursued through measures to support a just transition, action on sustainable finance, strengthening non financial reporting for companies, integration of the Sustainable Development Goals into the European Semester process, and strengthening relevant State Aid Guidelines. Further initiatives to support the green transition that followed the Commission’s presentation of the European Green Deal include the Recovery and Resilience Facility (2020); REPowerEU (2022); and the Green Deal Industrial Plan (2023). Underpinning the European Green Deal is the European Climate Law, enacted in 2021, which set the objective of a climate-neutral EU by 2050 and a commitment to negative emissions thereafter. It also sets a binding intermediate EU target of a reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions (emissions after deduction of removals) by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. To ensure EU policies align with the new 55% reduction target, the EU revised and updated its climate and energy legislation through a series of initiatives and measures proposed in 2021 as part of the ‘Fit for 55’ package. Nearly all of these proposals have now been adopted, and only the revision of the Energy Taxation Directive remains to be agreed. The European Climate Law also requires the EU to establish a further intermediate target for 2040 to drive the transition to a climate-neutral economy and mandates the European Commission to propose the intermediate 2040 target in the first half of 2024 (i.e., within 6 months of the global stocktake under the Paris Agreement). The Commission published its communication and impact assessment on the 2040 target on 6 February 2024. The 5 European Commission Communication, ‘The European Green Deal,’ COM (2019) 640, 11 December 2019 https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/communication-european-green-deal en 8 Communication includes a projected indicative EU greenhouse gas budget for the 2030 to2050 period, defined as the indicative total volume of net greenhouse gas emissions that are expected to be emitted in that period without putting at risk the EU’s commitments under the Paris Agreement. Based on this impact assessment, the Commission recommends a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. This is a non-binding recommendation from the Commission, which is in line with the advice of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change and the EU's commitments under the Paris Agreement and signals the opening of a broad political debate and a dialogue with stakeholders and citizens on the way forward. A formal legislative proposal is expected to be put forward by the next Commission in 2025. EU Governance and Accounting To help the EU meet its climate and energy targets, there are common rules for planning, reporting and monitoring set out in the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union, which are synchronised with the ambition cycles under the Paris Agreement. In terms of planning, Member States are required to prepare National Energy and Climate Plans (to 2030) and National Long-term Strategies (to 2050 and beyond). These must be consistent with one another. For climate reporting, the regulation includes provisions to track progress in implementation of EU Climate legislation, such as the Effort Sharing Regulation and LULUCF Regulation. It also provides a monitoring mechanism for greenhouse gas emissions and other climate information to enable the EU to comply with its reporting obligations under the UNFCCC and Pairs Agreement. For GHG projections, Member States are required to report their GHG projections every two years (and optionally every year) under Article 18(1)(b). As our national authority for reporting emissions, the Environmental Protection Agency gathers and submits this information. The projections are estimates of GHG emissions that extend to 2030 and beyond and are disaggregated by sector and gas. They are prepared by carrying out a modelling exercise based on a number of assumptions, e.g., population, international fuel prices, economic growth, and the assumed effect of policies and measures on our emissions profile. 9 Two main modelling scenarios are usually carried out and submitted by Member States. reflecting different sets of assumptions: • With Existing Measures (WEM) is mandatory to report and based on policies and measures implemented or existing by the end of the latest inventory year, but also projected emissions reductions commensurate with resources or legislation already in place or committed to Government Departments or Agencies, e.g. carbon tax increases to 2050; and • With Additional Measures (WAM) is voluntary to report and based on policies and measures in the latest Government plans but not yet implemented. It includes, and goes beyond, all policies and measures included in the WEM scenario. This Long-term Climate Strategy presents three scenarios: WEM, WAM and Climate Action Plan (CAP). CAP captures additional policies and measures that were excluded from WAM as they do not as yet contain the level of detail that is required to account for them under the WAM scenario. Security of Supply As we transition to a climate neutral future, we must ensure the pathway to decarbonisation is underpinned by security and affordability in how we access and use energy in our everyday lives. Having a reliable source of energy is vital for people to have confidence in the transition. Recent geopolitical events have had significant impacts for the European energy system, triggering a decision by the European Union to phase out its dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports. In November 2023 the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications published a first-of-its-kind strategy for Ireland’s energy security. ‘Energy Security in Ireland to 2030’ outlines our national plan to ensure energy security for this decade, as we transition to a carbon-neutral energy system by 2050. The comprehensive report, focused on 28 actions, is a roadmap for a sustainable, affordable and secure energy landscape. It balances energy risk and resilience against our binding climate commitments at national and European level. Ireland’s future energy system will be secured by moving from an oil and gas-based energy system to an electricity-led system. It is informed by six pillars of analysis, including the technical review of the energy security of Ireland’s electricity and gas networks carried out by Cambridge Economic Policy Associates 10 (CEPA), the over 450 consultation responses to this analysis, and the Independent Review on the Security of Electricity Supply, carried out by former Secretary General of the Department of an Taoiseach, Dermot McCarthy (the McCarthy Report). Overall, the in-depth consultation and analysis highlights the vital importance of Ireland’s renewable energy policy agenda. It also identifies strategic risks for Ireland within a changing European and international energy context. Based on this, the report sets out several conclusions, including: 1. Switch to electricity: Ireland’s future energy will be secure by moving from and oil and gas-based energy system to an electricity-led system. 2. Plans in place are right: Plans for an electricity system focused on additional renewable generation, demand side flexibility, new gas-fired generation as back-up, interconnection and storage are the right ones to secure electricity supplies. 3. Balancing sustainable gas demand and supply: While gas supplies and infrastructure are adequate to meet our demand projections, there is risk in the case of a major disruption. To reduce reliance on gas imports, we will reduce natural gas demand and increase renewable indigenous gas supply, with renewable gas compatible storage solutions. As a transitionary measure to address security needs, we will introduce a Strategic Gas Emergency Reserve on a transitional basis to address security needs in the medium-term, for use in the event of a disruption to gas supplies. The mechanism for delivery of this Strategic Gas Emergency Reserve will be considered by Government in 2024. 4. Robust oil supply: Back-up reserves and distribution plans in case of an oil emergency are sufficient. Into the future, we need to ensure commercial oil supplies into the State will be robust, along with the infrastructure for distribution. Over time, oil demand will be reduced. 5. Good governance: “Best in class” governance structure will be in place to ensure delivery, robust risk management and adequate resources. 6. Speedy delivery: Infrastructure is critical and requires a strong legal framework and fully resources State bodies to expedite energy projects quickly. 7. National priority: Energy security will be prioritised, monitored and reviewed regularly. 11 As already indicated, Ireland has set itself a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 and being climate neutral by no later than 2050. As Ireland decarbonises its energy system as part of achieving these commitments, demand for electricity will increase and total demand for natural gas will decrease. The aim of the package is to ensure that the decarbonisation efforts are underpinned by security, and affordability, in how Ireland accesses and uses its energy resources. 12 3. Policy to Date and Expected Impact of Planned Policies Trends in Ireland’s Emissions to Date Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions have undergone considerable shift in the three decades since 1990.6 According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inventory data, the rate of emissions reduction was modest up to 2008, with efforts to decarbonise constrained by strong economic activity. Since 2011, emissions have trended upwards again as the economy picked up, with an overall peak in emissions reported in 2018 – see Figure 2.1 below. Trends in Ireland’s emissions over the previous three decades contrast with many other EU Member States. This is in part due to Ireland’s significant economic development in the 1990s leading to increased emissions, while in other EU Member States emissions reductions were already underway.7 This context illustrates why Ireland’s current emissions reduction targets require greater ambition relative to some similar countries. In the context of COVID-19, emissions in Ireland decreased by 3.6% in 2020, but rose again by 4.7% in 2021 as some sectors recovered. The EPA’s 2023 data indicates that in 2022 total national greenhouse gas emissions fell by 1.9% compared to 2021 to 60.6 MtCO2eq., driven by higher fuel prices, reduced use of nitrogen fertiliser, increased renewable energy, behavioural change, and regulation. ETS8 emissions decreased (4.1%) and ESR emissions decreased (1.1%). While the overall emissions reduction is positive, further transformative measures will be needed to meet national climate ambitions. 6 Greenhouse gas emissions trends and inventories published by the EPA. See https://www.epa.ie/our-services/monitoring assessment/climate-change/ghg/ 7 https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/greenhouse-gases-viewer 8 refers to CO2 emissions from stationary installations and from domestic aviation. It does not include emissions from intra-EU aviation https://www.epa.ie/our-services/monitoring--assessment/climate-change/ghg/ https://www.epa.ie/our-services/monitoring--assessment/climate-change/ghg/ https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/greenhouse-gases-viewer 13 Figure 3.1 – Ireland’s GHG Emissions Inventories by gas 1990-20229 The profile of sectoral emissions has also changed since 1990. According to the EPA’s Final Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2022 inventories report, Agriculture is the single largest contributor to the overall emissions at 38.5% of the total (excluding LULUCF). Transport and Energy Industries are the second and third largest contributors at 19.4% and 16.6% respectively. Residential and Manufacturing Combustion emissions account for 9.6% and 7.1% respectively. These five sectors accounted for 91.1% of national total emissions in 2022. The remainder is made up by the Industrial Processes sector at 3.8%, F-Gases at 1.2%, Commercial Services at 1.3%, Public Services at 1.1% and Waste at 1.5%. Figure 2.2 shows the trend in contributions from key sectors from 1990 to 2022, excluding LULUCF. 9 EPA (2024) Ireland’s Final Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2022, page 28. https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring assessment/climate-change/air-emissions/2023-EPA-Provisional-GHG-Report Final v3.pdf https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring--assessment/climate-change/air-emissions/2023-EPA-Provisional-GHG-Report Final v3.pdf https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring--assessment/climate-change/air-emissions/2023-EPA-Provisional-GHG-Report Final v3.pdf 14 Figure 3.2 – EPA Trend profile of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions for key sectors, 1990 to 202210 Ireland’s National Climate Objective Ireland’s National Climate Objective, established in law by the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 to 2021 (the Climate Act), is to achieve a climate neutral economy by no later than the end of the year 2050. The Climate Act also provides for an interim 51% reduction in emissions, relative to 2018 levels, by 2030 which is aligned with the European Climate Law and with the IPCC’s 1.5⁰C pathways. The 2030 and 2050 targets are to take account of all greenhouse gases included in the common reporting format tables submitted by the EPA to the UN under their reporting guidelines. In line with the Climate Act, Ireland’s decarbonisation strategy will take account of the latest scientific advice and the special economic and social role of agriculture, including with regard to the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane. Ireland published updated Climate Action Plans for 2021, 2023 and 2024, each with an accompanying Annex of Actions, to support decisive action to achieve the target of a 51% 10 Ibid, page 28 15 reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and establish a pathway towards climate neutrality by no later than 2050. Following publication of the Climate Action Plan in 2021, and in line with the process set out in the Climate Act, a carbon budget programme proposed by the Climate Change Advisory Council was approved by Government on 21 February 2022 and came into effect on 6 April 2022. A carbon budget determines the total amount of greenhouse gases that may be emitted in the State during a 5-year period, measured in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. The programme comprises three successive carbon budgets for the periods 2021-2025, 2026-2030, and 2031-2035 (provisional). The average annual reduction proposed over the first five years is 4.8%; for the second period it is 8.3%; and for the final provisional period it is 3.5%. The first two carbon budgets in the programme provide for the 51% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to 2018 levels, while the third is provisional and consistent with establishing a pathway to achieving climate neutrality no later than 2050. Table 3.1: Ireland’s legally binding carbon budget programme 2021 to 2035 2021 – 2025 CB1 2026 – 2030 CB2 2031 – 2035 CB3 (Provisional) All Gases Carbon Budget (Mt CO2eq) 295 200 151 Annual Average Percentage Change in Emissions 4.80% -8.30% -3.50% The figures are consistent with emissions in 2018 of 68.3Mt CO2eq reducing to 33.5Mt CO2eq in 2030 thus allowing compliance with the 51% emissions reduction target.11 With carbon budgets set, Ireland established sectoral emissions ceilings, which were approved by Government on 28 July 2022 and apportion the economy-wide carbon budgets across the relevant sectors, determining what each sector may contribute in a given five year period. The 2030 emissions ceilings are detailed in Table 3.2 below. There are unallocated economy-wide emissions savings of 5.25 MtCO2eq. per annum for the second carbon budgetary period 2026-2030. This will require additional abatement measures to be identified ahead of the commencement of the second carbon budgetary period to ensure Ireland meets its 2030 emissions reduction target. 11 Based on AR5 accounting. Source: CCAC Carbon Budget Technical Report 16 Table 3.2 Sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030, relative to 2018 Sector 2018 emissions (MtCO2eq.) 2030 target emissions (MtCO2eq.) % reduction relative to 2018 Electricity 10.5 3 75% Transport 12 6 50% Buildings (Commercial and Public) 2 1 45% Buildings (Residential) 7 4 40% Industry 7 4 35% Agriculture 23 17.25 25% Other (F-Gases, Waste & Petroleum refining) 2 1 50% Unallocated savings*** - 5.25 * Figures for MtCO2eq for 2018 and 2030 have been rounded. This may lead to some discrepancies. ** The sectoral emissions ceilings leave 5.25 MtCO2 eq. in annual unallocated savings for the period 2026 to 2030 on an economy-wide basis pending the identification of additional abatement measures. There is both a policy and legal basis for this under the 2020 Programme for Government, subsequent climate action plans and the Climate Act 2021. The additional abatement measures will be identified ahead of the commencement of the second carbon budgetary period. The 2023 and 2024 Plans contain policy pathways and actions to achieve the sectoral emissions ceilings for the electricity, industry, residential buildings, commercial/public buildings, transport, agriculture, and other (f-gases, waste and petroleum refinement) sectors. The 2024 Plan also sets out an alternative compliance pathway for the LULUCF sector that is no less ambitious or challenging than the others, but reflects the specific characteristics of land use, accounts for bio-physical and temporal reality, is feasible, and aligns with our longer-term climate objectives out to 2050. This new approach is more aligned to how the EU LULUCF Regulation deals with the fluctuations and limits within the LULUCF sector and will set us on a pathway to achieve our goals allowing for: the setting of activity targets and annual key performance indicators; sectoral accountability; and a 2030 emissions reduction target. The pathway will be subject to future reviews considering a current Land-use Review, ongoing inventory refinements, and any future developments in terms of international and national commitments. In relation to the unallocated economy-wide emissions savings, an assessment as to how these could be addressed during the second carbon budget period is to be completed by 17 quarter 1 2025. Five key themes, that could deliver up to 30 MtCO2eq. during the second carbon budget period, have been identified: • Focus on economy-wide energy efficiency and demand management; • Accelerate the future energy system; • Implement sustainable food and agriculture; • Deploy carbon capture and storage technologies; • Support carbon removals (including bio-economy measures). Government Ministers will be responsible for achieving the targets for their own sectoral area, with each Minister accounting for their performance towards sectoral targets and actions before an Oireachtas Committee each year. It is important to note that the technical classifications underpinning the EPA inventories and projections do not always align neatly with the configuration of Ministerial accountabilities and associated Departmental structures in Ireland. The Ministerial accountability framework will, therefore, be kept under review and adjusted as appropriate. Achieving climate neutrality in Ireland will mean that the country will have no further negative impacts on the climate system by mid-century. Quick progress towards our 2030 targets, under the frameworks provided by the Climate Act and EU regulations, will allow Ireland to generate momentum around technological advancements and deployment, and to prepare for increasingly challenging emissions reductions after 2030. Figure 3.3 Ireland’s required GHG emissions trajectory 2030 Target 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Ireland's GHG emissions (including LULUCF) Mt CO2 eq Historical Carbon Budgets Net zero pathway 18 4. Pathways to Climate Neutrality which Create the Least Burden and Offer the Most Opportunity for Ireland Introduction A key objective of this strategy is to provide clarity on the sectoral adjustments that will be required to reach climate neutrality by 2050, to support policy stability and investment in the medium- and long-term. By defining sector-specific targets and technology pathways to achieving them, this strategy can increase the certainty of delivering our climate neutral target in a manner which supports economic growth and development and ensures a just transition. Ireland’s climate action ambitions are underpinned by a robust framework that has a strong focus on implementation, including actions with specific timelines and steps needed to achieve each action, assigning clear lines of responsibility for delivery. Climate Action Plans, legally binding economy-wide carbon budgets, and sectoral emissions ceilings provide the roadmap for taking decisive action to halve Ireland’s emissions by 2030 and set us on a pathway to reach climate neutrality by no later than 2050. The exact pathways to achieving longer term sectoral targets will evolve over time, as some technologies mature and become more cost-effective in response to innovation and increased investment, or as new technologies emerge. We know with certainty, however, that reaching climate neutrality will require Ireland’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel energy use in power generation, heating, industry, and transport to reduce to effectively zero. Though it is likely unavoidable that some emissions will remain from production in the agriculture sector, remaining greenhouse gases will require balancing by sufficient levels of carbon dioxide removals to maintain an annual balance of emissions and removals from 2050 onwards.12 12 In particular nitrous oxide emissions from the agriculture sector and process emissions in cement production 19 Potential Pathway to Climate Neutrality There are a range of measures which will allow Ireland to deliver the climate neutral target. However, given the timescale to 2050, there is uncertainty surrounding the availability and cost of certain technologies. In the 2020 Programme for Government it was recognised that “in setting the second carbon budget for 2026-2030, we will not yet be in a position to identify all the emerging technologies, changing scientific consensus or policies to meet our full ambition”, and that a further allocation within the overall carbon budget would be required. Consistent with the Programme for Government position and the 2021 Climate Act, the sectoral emissions ceilings agreed by Government in July 2022 assume 5.25 MtCO2 eq. in annual unallocated savings for the second carbon budgetary period 2026 to 2030, and 26 MtCO2eq overall. As already indicated, Climate Action Plan 2024 sets out a number of potential themes to address unallocated savings: • Focus on economy-wide energy efficiency and demand management; • Implement novel technologies in agriculture and advance bioeconomy; • Accelerate the future energy system; • Deploy carbon capture and storage technologies. These themes, set out in the Climate Action Plan 2024, impact the Long-term Climate Action Strategy in two ways. First, it is likely that action across all these themes will be needed to meet Ireland’s carbon neutrality goal. Second, the degree to which these different themes are used to address the carbon budgetary period 2026 to 2030 will impact the precise pathway to 2050 for each sector. Sector Abatement Ambition Figure 4.1 summarises the sectoral technologies and measures, with indicative target levels, in the pathway required for Ireland to achieve climate neutrality. All of these will need to be implemented to deliver the sectoral emissions reductions required. 20 Figure 4.1 – Indicative pathway13 to climate neutrality by sector in line with Climate Action Plan 2024 13 Indicative pathways do not pre-empt the establishment of Sectoral Emissions in line with the provisions of Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 21 5. Costs, Benefits and Opportunities of Climate Neutrality for Ireland Investment Needed Investment to 2030 Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 must influence both public and private investment choices over the next decade. Modelling completed in support of Climate Action Plan 2024, which paves the way for achieving the 2030 target, indicates that delivery of the Plan could require a total investment of ~€119 billion to €125 billion, including ~€70 billion of capital investments (~60% of the total) which would be redirected (public and private) rather than incremental investments. It is not possible to predict exactly how the next decade will unfold. The pace of individual, technological, scientific, societal and economic change will not be precisely in line with our assumptions today. We will, therefore, update the Climate Action Plan annually in line with the Climate Act and following consultation with key stakeholders. These updates will be informed by the latest analyses and by our performance against targets. The estimates for required investment will continue to be updated as the plan evolves over time. The National Planning Framework and the National Development Plan 2021-2030 combine to form Project Ireland 2040. Project Ireland 2040 is the Government’s long-term overarching strategy to make Ireland a better country for all and to build a more resilient and sustainable future. The National Planning Framework sets the vision and strategy for the development of our country to 2040 and the National Development Plan provides the enabling investment to implement that strategy. The revised National Development Plan, published in October 2021, will underpin public investment in climate action over the decade. The National Development Plan sets out a ten year capital expenditure framework that will support our transition to a low-carbon society over the period to 2030. The revised Plan incorporates an investment package of €165 billion across all sectors of the economy. In March 2024, an additional €2.25 billion of windfall corporate tax receipts has also been allocated from 2024 to 2026, to provide funding for critical infrastructure projects that are at an advanced stage. As a percentage of national income, annual capital investment is among the highest in the EU and well above the recent average of 3% of national income. Extensive efforts have been made to ensure that the Plan 22 will support the Government’s climate ambitions. The investment it will support is necessary to meet our climate ambition, in areas such as renewable electricity generation, retrofit and public transport. The revised National Development Plan was, for the first time, informed by a climate and environmental assessment of the impact that each proposed measure was likely to have on seven specific climate and environmental outcomes: • Climate mitigation; • Climate adaptation; • Water quality; • Air quality; • Waste and the circular economy; • Nature and biodiversity; • Just transition. The approach to this assessment will be refined further based on international best practice and supplements the usual requirements for appraisal and evaluation under the Infrastructure Guidelines. Ireland’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan – prepared under the European Commission Recovery and Resilience Facility to mitigate the immense economic and social impacts of the coronavirus pandemic – prioritises a sustainable, equitable, green and digital recovery, in a manner that complements and supports the Government’s broader climate ambition. The National Recovery and Resilience Plan commits to investment of a total value of just under €1 billion, to be supported both by grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and national funds. The Plan aims to significantly reform and direct relevant funding towards decarbonising projects such as retrofitting, ecosystem resilience and regeneration, climate mitigation and adaptation, and green data systems. “Advancing the Green Transition” is the first of three priority components of the Plan, with €518 million of funding committed to investment in seven specific projects to advance the green transition. The four Project Ireland 2040 funds, comprising the Climate Action Fund; the Disruptive Technologies Innovation Fund; the Urban Regeneration and Development Fund; and the Rural Regeneration and Development Fund, will have a collective budget amounting to an estimated €4 billion to 2027. Each of the four funds will continue to promote investments for climate action within the scope of their mandates. The Climate Action Fund will continue to fund initiatives that contribute to the achievement of Ireland’s climate and energy targets in a cost-effective manner. It offers the potential for innovative interventions in these sectors which, in the absence of support from the Fund, 23 would not otherwise be developed. Seven projects spanning the electricity, heat, transport, and agriculture sectors, with both an urban and rural focus, were approved for funding of up to €77 million under the first call from this Fund in 2018. By requiring a minimum contribution from each project, the Fund’s commitment will leverage a total investment of over €300 million. It should be noted that reliance solely on Exchequer expenditure schemes is neither affordable nor adequate to the scale of the challenge to be addressed. Government recognises that climate action will require a targeted balance between Exchequer-supported expenditure, and taxation policies and regulation. Private investment will be needed to work alongside public funding to achieve our targets. In certain cases, taxation policy may have a stronger role to play in changing individual or business behaviour. In addition, the financial cost and resulting benefits will be evaluated in accordance with the Public Spending Code as policies are put in place to support the delivery of Ireland’s climate targets. Investment to 2050 Transitioning to a climate neutral economy and achieving the required level of emissions reduction is estimated to require a cumulative investment of €235 billion from 2031 to 205014. The extent of Government expenditure will depend on the nature of the policy choices to be taken to support the uptake of the technologies identified, but private investment will be essential. To stimulate the required investment, the Government will, however, need to provide clear, long-term signals to provide the appropriate regulatory and policy framework, to ensure capital is directed to sustainable investments and to avoid the emergence of stranded assets. The implementation of the EU’s sustainable finance framework is seen as important in unlocking financing for low carbon technologies. Finance initiatives to provide for climate and environmental projects are likely to be necessary in some areas of the economy and in particular as a means to unlock the benefits of energy efficiency. While the investment requirements are high, and short-run disruptions in certain sectors of the economy will be unavoidable, the transition to a climate neutral economy is projected to be a core driver of economic development over the next three decades and will help to reduce the overall operating expenditure requirements of the economy, creating a net 14 This is a preliminary estimate based on work undertaken by McKinsey and Company. Further detailed evaluation of the required cumulative investment is required, noting that it is dependent on the decarbonisation pathway chosen, including the distribution of effort across sectors and the associated marginal costs of abatement. 24 benefit. Reaching climate neutrality is expected to have an overall net positive effect on the economy, through increased incremental investment, additional consumer spending, and reduced imports of fossil fuels. However, it is important that climate policy and investment, throughout this transition, is managed in a manner which supports Ireland’s international competitiveness and protects economic growth. Figure 5.1 – Expected Climate Action Plan 2024 CAPEX investment requirement 2031 2050 Measures to Deliver Targets Each of the key performance indicators, as set out in the 2024 Climate Action Plan, can be allocated to 1 of 7 core abatement actions (this mapping can be observed in Figure 5.2: 1) Demand Management; 2) Energy efficiency; 3) Electrification and renewables deployment; 4) Zero-carbon fuels; 5) District heating; 6) Sustainable farming; 7) Land-use practices 25 Figure 5.2 – Mapping of core abatement key performance indicators as set out in draft CAP24 to core abatement actions As seen in Figure 5.3, electrification and the roll-out of renewable electricity supply is expected to deliver close to 50% of emission abatement during this decade. Sustainable farming and land use practices are also expected to drive significant abatement by 2030. Figure 5.3 – Abatement potential of each key abatement action until 2030 Prepared with DECC as part of preparation for CAP24 24 7 Actions drive the path to meet 2030 climate ambitions 5. District heating . Sustainable farming . ero carbon fuels 3. Electrification and RES2 2. Energy efficiency 1. Demand management . Land use practices 200k Buildings homes connected to district heating 1 ehicle km by 2030 vs. BAU 15 Energy consumed by buildings vs 2018 22 G Renewable capacity in 2030 1.3 T h ero emission gas in buildings by 2030 50 kha Area farmed under organic practices kha Afforested area 1 Emissions per vkm in diesel gasoline cars due to efficiency measures vs 2018 2 Tons of cement produced in 2030 vs. BAU 0 Buildings homes heated by heat pumps in 2030 2.1T h ero emission gas in Industry by 2030 90 Replacement of CAN1 with inhibited urea 55 kha Planted cover crop 0 Share of vkm by BE s in 2030 Shift heating in the built environment from locali ed to district heating networks, particularly in urban areas Blend in ero carbon fuels into current fossil applications 2 and biogas into the natural gas grids and biofuels into road transport Shift core energy processes from fossil fuels to electrified substitutes while building out renewables capacity to secure green power supply Reduce energy intensity across sectors without reducing comfort or output, through retrofits, process or equipment improvements Shift demand towards low emission alternatives while maintaining value added services in society Optimi e land use practices to align emphasi ing sustainable resource utili ation and biodiversity conservation Expand sustainable farming practices, including increasing organic farming, reducing nitrogen, low emission animal breeding, and other measures 1. Calcium Ammonium Nitrate 2. Renewable Energy Sources Prepared with DECC as part of preparation for CAP24 25 Electrification across the economy and combined with RES build out is expected to drive close to 50% of Ireland s decarbonisation until 2030 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2018 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2030 CAP 23 trajectory BAU trajectory1 Mton CO2eq abated Contribution per action to CAP 23 Electrification and RES 48% 46% ero carbon fuels 6% 4% Sustainable farming 13% 18% Efficiency improvement 3% 3% District heating 3% 3% Land use practices 8% 11% Action 2021 25 202 30 1. Modeled emission trajectory based on not implementing each of the CAP 23 actions 2. Other abatment includes waste, oil and gas, and unallocated emissions savings of total abatement Demand management 9% 6% Other2 10% 8% istorical emission trajectory 26 Socio economic Aspects Achieving climate neutrality will require significant change across Ireland’s economy, directly affecting citizens, communities, and businesses throughout the country. It will entail a significant shift, not only in the composition of employment in the economy, but also in employment structures and practices. Some economic sectors may face a need to reduce employment, while others could require a larger workforce. The green economy, including the retrofitting sector, the circular economy, clean mobility, green and blue infrastructure, sustainable agriculture and the bio economy will create new, local, high quality employment opportunities and will be a source of significant employment growth over the coming decades. This will have geographic, economic and capability-based implications for Ireland’s workforce. At the same time, the ongoing transformation of the economy through information and communication technologies will help to facilitate the transition to a climate neutral economy. Successive Climate Action Plans have identified the need to plan appropriately to ensure that those most affected by our transition to a low-carbon, climate resilient society are supported and equipped to contribute to this transition. It also recognises that the level of change required to decarbonise Ireland’s economy cannot be avoided nor can the taxpayer compensate for all the actions which will have to be taken. Through the overall framework provided by the Climate Act, we will consider on an ongoing basis, inter alia, the potential distributional effects of climate action and how they might impact a just transition, and what the policy implications may be to ensure meaningful and sustainable change. Benefits of Action • Co-benefits: Climate co-benefits refer to additional social and economic benefits that arise from climate action. For example, the restoration of peatlands and increase in woodland enables habitat creation and improves air quality. Increased forest cover can retain excess water and mitigate the impacts of floods, increasing resilience to climate change. Changes to farming practices bring air quality improvements from the reduction in ammonia use, and reduced eutrophication/water pollution because of more efficient nitrous oxide application. Regenerative agricultural practices improve soil health and the soil’s capacity to infiltrate, reducing the need for irrigation and improving water and energy efficiency. 27 • Health benefits: There is a wealth of evidence that many climate actions can lead to health improvements and reduced health risks. For example, embracing active travel (walking and cycling) can have improved physical and mental health benefits which, considered in economic terms, are even greater than the positive environmental impact, while the shift to renewable fuel sources improves air quality. Additionally, climate action can help improve air quality, which was highlighted as a priority in the EPA’s 2022 Air Quality in Ireland report.15 Action to reduce transport emissions in particular reduces exposure to pollutants and associated mortality risks and will help Ireland achieve its ambition to move towards the World Health Organisation Air Quality guidelines, as outlined in the Clean Air Strategy. • Job creation: Climate action can lead to market opportunities that enable sustainable economic growth and green job creation. For example, increased demand for jobs in higher- skilled roles such as offshore wind installation engineers. Ireland is well positioned to seize new high-growth green export and import substitution opportunities such as horticulture and harvested wood products. Further opportunities for job creation exist in low-carbon transition sectors such as buildings, transport, and manufacturing. In the buildings sector, this could include jobs to support the energy efficiency and low carbon heat programmes. Figure 5.4 – Benefits of climate action 15 EPA (2023), Air Quality in Ireland Report 2022 28 Risks of Inaction In addition to the already predicted climate impacts for Ireland, outlined in detail in the chapter on Adaptation, Ireland faces further transition risks if action is not properly taken to fully decarbonise our economy by 2050: • Financial: Ireland could face rapidly increasing annual compliance costs if we do not take early action to meet our 2030 targets, particularly in the context of more ambitious EU targets set out in the European Climate Law and the associated ‘Fit for 55’ package of proposals. Given the deeper annual emissions reductions for the 2030 to 2050 period, Ireland will need to act to avoid significant compliance-related costs, which could otherwise be used for productive investment within our economy to support citizens, communities and businesses in the transition to a climate neutral economy. • Technological: This strategy sets out economy-wide pathways to transitioning to a climate neutral economy. These pathways comprise a mix of existing technologies; emerging technologies which do not yet exist at scale in Ireland; and speculative technologies which exist mostly at research/pilot stage or face significant challenges relating to their commercial viability. This strategy should, therefore, be seen as a necessary framework to guide the prioritisation of investments in research development and deployment, and the development of appropriate policy and regulatory frameworks, to support both the wider deployment of emerging technologies and the maturation of speculative technologies, in the context of continual evolution in the feasibility and costs of decarbonisation technologies. • Market expectations and international reputation: Failure to take action towards achieving climate neutrality could lead to negative consequences for Ireland’s economy overall and within specific sectors. Ireland’s foreign direct investment (FDI) model and export-oriented economy relies heavily on our international reputation as an open, well-regulated member of the European Union. As the international community takes increasingly ambitious action towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, with the robustness of such ambitions increasingly expected to feature in trade and other international agreements, Ireland will need to be aligned with the most ambitious countries on climate action to ensure that its FDI model and export economy remains robust into the future. 29 . Citizen Engagement, Community Leadership and Just Transition Just Transition Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 will require a transformational level of change across the economy and across society. While we must all act together towards this objective, it is clear that the costs of climate action will be felt more acutely by some than by others. Climate policy must seek to protect the most vulnerable and ensure that the costs, and benefits, of this transition are shared equitably. The Climate Act acknowledges ‘the requirement for a just transition to a climate neutral economy which endeavours, in so far as is practicable, to— (i) maximise employment opportunities, and (ii) support persons and communities that may be negatively affected by the transition’ and the Climate Action Plan places a just transition at its core and provides the supporting policy framework. Climate Action Plan 2024 re-affirms four principles that will guide our policy making and implementation over the coming years to ensure that we can effectively monitor and manage our transition and that our responses remain flexible so that we can respond to future transition challenges and target the areas in need of support: • An integrated, structured, and evidence-based approach to identify and plan our response to just transition requirements; • People are equipped with the right skills to be able to participate in and benefit from the future climate neutral economy; • The costs are shared so that the impact is equitable and existing inequalities are not exacerbated; • Social dialogue to ensure impacted citizens and communities are empowered and are core to the transition process. All instruments, policies and regulations deployed in the delivery of our climate policy will need to align with these four principles, and ensure they are taken into account in their design and implementation. This just transition framework will guide policy planning and implementation so that, over the long-term, Government will effectively manage Ireland's transition through suitable structures and policy responses, whether already in place or 30 planned, ensuring that our responses remain flexible so that we can respond to future transition challenges, and that we target the areas in need of support. The framework provides a basis for assessing progress, through the annual Climate Action Plan cycle, on the integration of the just transition dimension into policy planning and implementation. Important elements of this are already in place in Ireland. Strong climate governance and progressive policies contained in successive Climate Action Plans are enabling Ireland to respond to the challenges and opportunities ahead. Ireland’s National Dialogue on Climate Action (NDCA) has just transition at its core. A strategic approach has been adopted to managing the economic transition of the Midlands as a result of the cessation of peat extraction for power generation, underpinned by significant levels of Exchequer and EU funding. We are continually evolving our education and training system to ensure that it is future-orientated, targeted and effective and, in particular, that it has the capacity to respond to the workforce requirements necessary to meet our sectoral emissions ceiling targets in the period to 2030. We are committed to ensuring that our carbon taxation policies are progressive by complementing future increases with targeted increases in social welfare and other initiatives to address fuel poverty. The Government will continue to develop its capacity to prepare for the long-term structural shifts that will take place in Ireland’s economy and society as a result of our climate transition. This will mean: • focusing on the potential impacts, risks and opportunities arising from the climate transition for different sectors of both the economy and society, including the social, economic and employment impacts of this transition; • identifying and implementing the policy responses required, including any interventions or targeted supports which may be helpful to address the challenges being faced by particular communities, sectors or regions; and • undertaking proactive engagement with particular communities, sectors or regions facing specific acute or long-term challenges arising from the transition, including through the National Dialogue on Climate Action and dialogues within individual sectors. To support the Government in its responsibility to plan for and manage this long-term transition, the Government is establishing a Just Transition Commission. This Commission will be an independent evidence-driven source of advice to the Government and wider society which will both assess progress on policy planning and delivery and provide strategic evidence-based research on the long-term socio-economic implications of the transition. 31 Citizen Engagement Given both the importance of achieving our 2050 targets and the level of transformation that will be required to do so, it is essential that we directly involve citizens and communities in contributing to climate action. Genuine and substantive citizen engagement is necessary to improve climate literacy, increase policy buy-in, and effect behavioural change. Citizens must be engaged with as members of the public, but also as active participants that can instigate positive behavioural change in their businesses, organisations, or places of employment. The National Dialogue on Climate Action (NDCA) is the primary vehicle through which systematic and active engagement with stakeholders and the public across Ireland at local and national level will take place as we move forward. The purpose of the NDCA is to create a comprehensive structure to support widespread public and stakeholder engagement on climate change, empower people across all of society to adopt more sustainable behaviours, and be a vehicle to facilitate public participation in national climate policy. The NDCA aims to achieve three key objectives 1. Improve climate literacy by creating awareness and promoting understanding of climate change; 2. Fund, support, and enable active engagement in climate action at a local and national level, conduct public consultations, and promote self-efficacy by empowering the public to adopt more sustainable behaviours; 3. Capture insights from engagement activities and conduct social and behavioural research to measure behavioural change and provide an evidence base to inform Climate Action Plans and sectoral climate policies. The vision, purpose and objectives above will be delivered through a systematic and cyclical process that runs, on an annual basis, in parallel with the annual review of the Climate Action Plan. This approach ensures that activities from inputs to outputs are linked, and that the impacts of these activities are measured as outcomes. 32 . Carbon Pricing and Cross cutting Policies While the evaluation of different technologies, carried out in support of the development of this strategy and of our Climate Action Plans, has provided a pathway to achieving a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the successful deployment of these technologies will require specific policies to remove barriers at the sectoral level. Government policies on taxation, expenditure, sustainable finance, spatial planning, and research and development provide an important enabling framework for individual, household, community, and company-level climate action. These policies also act as enablers for a wide range of other Government policies and activities within individual sectors. The sectoral pathways outlined in this Strategy point to a number of cross-sectoral challenges which will need to be addressed over the coming decade through successive Climate Action Plans: • Provide certainty on transition to decarbonised technologies: citizens, communities and businesses need time to prepare and plan for necessary transition to low-carbon alternatives. Decisions to regulate certain technologies out of everyday use, e.g., in relation to fossil fuel boilers, can have significant impacts on markets and on household or enterprise investment behaviour. Clear signalling of policy direction, including just transition principles, with sufficient lead-in times for any changes will therefore be essential; • Environmental Taxation and Carbon Pricing: taxation policy can play a central role in incentivising the behavioural change necessary to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and to support additional environmental benefits. Ireland has had a broadly-based carbon tax in place since 2010, with legislation in place to increase the annual rate until at least 2030. Carbon tax income supports Government programmes, such as the National Residential Retrofit Plan, that play a vital part in the decarbonisation of society. We are committed to further developing a taxation framework, which plays its full part in incentivising, along with other available policy levers, the necessary actions to reduce our emissions; • Align the financial system to decarbonisation ambition: achieving climate neutrality implies a very significant transition for all actors in Ireland’s economy. It is critical that the financial system supports this transition by moving investment away 33 from emissions-intensive assets (and avoiding infrastructure lock-in) and by providing the finance needed to adopt the zero-emissions technologies of the future. There are several important ways that the government can facilitate this transition. In January 2022, the ECB launched its Supervisory Climate Risk Stress test to assess how prepared banks are for dealing with financial and economic shocks stemming from climate risk. The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and Sustainable Financial Disclosures Regulation will create a set of rules that will bring sustainability reporting on a par with financial reporting. Consequently, drafts of EU Sustainability Reporting Standards have been prepared that will set out how organisations can report on climate-related matters in a consistent fashion. The EU is continuing to develop a taxonomy for sustainable activities, that will provide a classification framework through which economic activities can be considered environmentally sustainable. The aim of the taxonomy is to provide certainty for investors, protect investors from greenwashing, help organisations to plan for the decarbonisation transition and shift investments to where they are most sustainable. The immediate task for the Government of Ireland is to identify the mechanisms which can be used to ensure Ireland’s financial system is supported in the required transition. • Put sustainability and climate action at the centre of Planning policy: the National Planning Framework (NPF) promotes the growth and development of sustainable communities. Its objectives include supporting the compact urban growth, greater efficiency of land management and the reuse of brownfield sites in serviced areas. • Develop an integrated approach to land use which facilitates achieving climate neutrality: the imperatives of further developing a sustainable model of agricultural production, maximising the carbon sink capacity of our land use, developing our bioenergy and wider bioeconomy production supply chain, and enhancing our environmental protection and biodiversity will require a more systematic consideration of Ireland’s overall land use and to ensure that these imperatives can be achieved in a complementary manner. This will require: further detailed research to improve our understanding of LULUCF sink profile and potential over the coming decades and to define emissions reductions measures and targets to 2050 accordingly; defining national land requirements for bioenergy production, and consider what market mechanisms may be required to support the development of a bioenergy 34 supply chain to support full decarbonisation of the electricity and industry sectors, including infrastructure creation, supply ramp-up and demand creation, with the need for operational financial support and incentives; defining a roadmap of agricultural activities in line with climate, environmental and market demands, including capturing the opportunities from market growth in the bioeconomy as well as physical changes in Ireland’s climate, and realigning incentives and support mechanisms to bring about the required shifts in agricultural outputs; ensuring that land use policies are full aligned with adaptation requirements and building Ireland’s resilience to climate change; ensuring Ireland’s land use facilitates improved biodiversity through e.g., re wetting of peatlands and re-wilding of specified habitats to promote enhanced biodiversity. Ireland has committed to completing a Land-use Review, including examining the implications of recent significant developments in our scientific knowledge of the sector’s emissions for the economy-wide carbon budgets. This is expected to be completed by Q1 2025. • Develop a strategy for negative emissions technologies: to provide for the development of a coherent policy and legislative framework for the introduction of such technologies, including carbon capture and storage and direct air capture, in Ireland. • Define the future of the gas grid: zero-emissions gas will be required in a climate neutral pathway for mid-century. Decisions on the future configuration of the grid will be needed in the next number of years. This will inform investment in research and development, infrastructure requirements (e.g., hydrogen readiness), and the future of the grid, including at regional, county and urban levels. In order for a coherent national approach to the development and supply of zero emission and renewable gases on a cross-sectoral basis, there will need to be measures taken to ensure an economic, steady, resilient, and reliable supply. Key measures to develop a renewable gas industry over the next decade are captured across various sectoral chapters of the Climate Action Plan. 35 • Develop and implement a strategy on the bioeconomy: building on the existing National Policy Statement on the Bioeconomy, we will need to take further steps to facilitate innovation in order to identify the primary circular and bio-economy opportunities for Ireland to develop leadership capabilities (e.g., generation of innovative business models). • Ensure national research and innovation funding supports achievement of our climate neutral objective: sustained significant investment in research, development and innovation in Ireland, and in cooperation with EU and international research programmes, will be required over the coming decades. Research prioritisation exercises within and across sectors will need to include assessments of where Ireland is best placed to be an innovator and leader within these research, development and innovation efforts. We are committed to introducing a transformational programme of research and development, to ensure that Ireland is at the cutting edge of scientific and technological innovation in order to meet our climate change and inter-related environment targets, spanning greenhouse gas emissions mitigation; climate adaptation; water and air quality; the circular economy and waste; and nature and biodiversity. This will include developments in areas such as climate science; biodiversity science; geoscience; energy system decarbonisation; transport system transition and technologies; the bioeconomy; carbon sequestration and utilisation (including nature-based solutions); natural capital and ecosystem services; green hydrogen; marine research (including marine renewable energy, floating offshore wind turbines); and in agriculture, to improve breeding programmes; feed additives to reduce biogenic methane; agroforestry; paludiculture; nutrient management; smart and data-driven agriculture. It will equally be important to develop social, psychological and behavioural science research, to understand how to motivate more sustainable outcomes in resource utilisation, conservation, and policy buy-in. The Government launched ‘Impact 2030: Ireland’s Research and Innovation Strategy’ in May 2022. The strategy puts research and innovation at the heart of addressing Ireland’s social, economic and environmental challenges. It will ensure that the best scientific evidence and advice is available to underpin Government policy and support the implementation of climate action, and to ensure that Ireland’s research and innovation infrastructure progressively builds capacity and capability to 36 support the fundamental transition that Ireland’s economy will undergo over the coming decades. 37 . Pathways to Climate Neutrality by Sector .1 Electricity State of Play In 2022, electricity accounted for 16.6% of Ireland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A reliable and secure supply of electricity is an essential component of a modern economy, and electricity demand is projected to increase considerably as we transition to a climate neutral economy. The carbon intensity of Ireland’s electricity has reduced in the last decades from 636 gCO2 eq. per kWh in 2005 to 331gCO2 eq. per kWh in 202216, largely due to increased renewable electricity generation and the use of higher-efficiency natural gas turbines, leading to a shift away from oil and coal generation. In 2022, approximately 60% of our electricity came from fossil fuel generation (oil, gas, peat and coal). While the current geopolitical impacts on fuel pricing poses challenges to reducing the amount of coal being used, Ireland will continue its efforts to decarbonise the electricity sector by taking advantage of its significant renewable energy resources in a way that is competitive, cost-effective and ensures the security of our electricity supply. By doing this, we will also decrease our dependence on imported fossil fuels. As Ireland decarbonises its energy system, demand for electricity will increase and total demand for natural gas will decrease. Ireland must ensure that its decarbonisation efforts are underpinned by security, and affordability, in how we access and use our energy resources. Ireland is taking a number of steps to ensure the security of its energy system and these steps is described in more detail in Chapter 2. Ireland has been very successful to date in deploying renewable electricity, with 38.6 % of electricity deployed from renewable sources in 2022, with the majority of this through onshore wind generation. To date, growth in renewable energy has been supported by public policies and consumer pressure, but a shifting economic environment will likely pave the way for future success. The costs of renewable energy technologies have steadily declined globally, reflecting reductions in capital costs, increased competition as the sector has matured and improvements in scale and technology continue. While current interest rates and supply chain constraints are impacting on the costs and deployment rates of 16 SEAI: Data and Insights https://www.seai.ie/data-and-insights/seai-statistics/key-statistics/electricity/#:~:text=CO%E2%82%82%20emissions%20intensity%20of%20electricity&text=The%20intensity%20was%20still%20over,gCO2%2FkWh%20in%202020. 38 renewables, other trends such as the declining costs of solar panels are leading to lower costs of supplying households and businesses with renewable electricity. Accelerating the deployment of wind and solar power is a central pillar of long-term decarbonisation of the electricity system which aligns with Ireland’s EU commitment’s and support for the RePowerEU Plan. Deployment of renewable electricity presents challenges, as production is variable, and electricity is not easily stored as energy in a liquid or gaseous form. Therefore, Ireland will focus on a variety of actions set out in the Climate Action Plan to increase the flexibility of Ireland’s electricity system. Electricity will be a key enabler in decarbonising other sectors of our economy, primarily through the increased electrification of the transport and built environment sectors. To reach Ireland’s climate neutral target, the power sector will need to deliver its own reduction in emissions and support the decarbonisation of multiple other sectors and end uses. The electrification of transport, built environment, and certain industry uses is expected to double electricity demand by 2050, which makes it extremely challenging to continue to deliver increasing rates of renewable penetration. An updated National Policy Statement on Electricity Interconnection was published in July 2023 setting out Ireland’s interconnection ambitions to 2030 and beyond.17 Ireland’s interconnection capacity currently stands at 500 MW in a single connection to the GB market with a further 500 MW linking Northern Ireland and GB. Assuming successful delivery of the 3 ongoing interconnector projects Ireland will have a total of 2,450 MW interconnector capacity by 2030 including a return of direct interconnection between Ireland and the EU via the Celtic Interconnector. Total anticipated Single Energy Market capacity by 2030 is 3,600 MW. It is intended that further interconnection will be closely aligned with the growth of offshore renewable energy and guided by policy developments under the EUs Action Plan for Grids.18 Pathway to 2030 National Energy and Climate Plan In accordance with the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action Regulation, Ireland submitted its draft National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2021-2030 to the European Commission in 2023. 17 https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/3d96f-national-policy-statement-on-electricity-connection-2023/ 18 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip 23 6044 39 The NECP submitted took into account, inter alia, all planned policies and measures that were identified up to the end of 2019, which were projected to collectively deliver a 30% reduction by 2030 in non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions (from 2005 levels). Sectoral Emissions Ceilings and Climate Action Plan 202 Under the sectoral emissions ceilings agreed by the Government on 28 July 2022, the electricity sector has been set a binding carbon budget of 60 MtCO2 eq. over the period from 2021 to 2030, which corresponds with a 75% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to the baseline year of 2018.19 Climate Action Plan 2024 provides an integrated energy strategy for achieving the ambitious emissions reductions required under the Sectoral Emissions Ceiling for Electricity.The central element of the current Plan is to deliver 80% renewable electricity generation by 2030. This will involve a dramatic reduction in fossil fuel generation, increasing renewable electricity, reinforcing the electricity grid (including greater interconnection to allow electricity to flow between Ireland and other European countries) and putting systems in place to manage intermittent sources of power, especially from wind. For fossil fuel generation, the Plan will complete the phase-out of coal and peat fired electricity generation. The plan recognises that it is essential that the burden borne by this transition is seen to be fair and includes a programme of measures to support a just transition. Achieving a renewable electricity target of 80% will entail large-scale investment, including in the installation and maintenance of generation assets, and associated infrastructure and services, as well as in the development of supply chains and port infrastructure. A key component of the Plan will be the continued roll out of regular competitive auctions for onshore and offshore renewables under the Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) to deliver our targets and ensure a steady supply pipeline of projects and efficient use of the network. The RESS invites renewable electricity projects to bid for capacity and receive a guaranteed price for the electricity they generate. The recently launched Small-scale Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (SRESS) will support small scale and community generation from 50 kW up to 6 MW. The Climate Action Plan commits to delivering at least 500 MW of renewables through local community-based 19 40 projects and to supporting the deployment of at least 1000MW of new micro-generation and small scale-generation. Ireland has now moved to a plan-led approach to deliver our offshore wind targets. This means that all future ORE developments, Designated Maritime Area Plans (DMAP) and associated grid connections, will be forward-planned under the Future Framework for Offshore Renewable Energy, published in May 2024, and the Policy and the Offshore Transmission Strategy. The Offshore Transmission Strategy is intended for publication in 2024. It is intended that further interconnection will be closely aligned with the growth of offshore renewable energy and guided by policy developments under the EUs Action Plan for Grids. 20 In May 2024, as part of the plan-led approach to ORE development, DECC published the draft South Coast DMAP, Ireland’s first ever spatial plan for renewable energy at sea. The draft South Coast DMAP identifies four maritime areas off the south coast in which development of ORE is proposed to take place over the next decade. The draft South Coast DMAP proposes that a first offshore wind project with a capacity of approximately 900 MW will take place in ‘Tonn Nua’, off the coast of County Waterford, and will aim for deployment by 2030. It further proposes that over the next decade, further offshore wind projects will be developed in the areas of ‘Lí Ban’, also off the coast of County Waterford, and ‘Manannán’ and ‘Danu’ – both off the south coast of County Wexford. The management of electricity demand will be a central part of our approach to achieving emissions reductions. Similarly, unlocking the flexibility of large electricity demand users will be a key challenge as the electricity system is decarbonised. Energy demand, including data centres, will be expected to operate within sectoral emissions ceilings and further signals will be required to locate demand where existing or future electricity grid is available and close to renewable energy generation. Research and development in energy storage and flexibility (such as a science challenge to industry) will be required to put Ireland on a pathway to net zero-carbon data centres. A reliable, resilient, and flexible electricity network will facilitate customer-centric solutions for citizens to become active participants in the energy system. The National Smart Metering Programme will replace over 2.1 million electricity meters by 2025 and smart meter customers are now able to avail of new Time of Use tariffs and smart services being made 20 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip 23 6044 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip 23 6044 41 available from electricity suppliers. This, in addition to the development of green electricity tariffs to incentivise the use of electricity at times of high wind and solar generation, will be a key measure to deliver on demand innovation and will continue to play an increasingly more important role in enabling consumers to participate in the energy transition to a decarbonised system. Pathway to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Meeting Ireland’s 2050 climate neutrality target will require full decarbonisation of the power sector. In order to achieve this, Ireland will need to achieve near zero emissions from 2035. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) has been tasked with reporting to the Minister on an evidence-based decarbonisation pathway for the electricity system, in order to provide future iterations of the Climate Action Plan, inform future carbon budgets, and provide a basis for a long-term electricity system development strategy to achieve our 2050 objective. SEAI are currently undertaking a Decarbonised Electricity System Study to accomplish this. Over the course of the next decade, Ireland's enormous potential for offshore wind will start to be realised, setting the country on a long-term trajectory for a net zero electricity system and allowing Ireland to supply renewable energy to, and offset emissions in, other European countries Figure 8.1.1: Annual emissions from electricity to 2050 83 Prepared with DECC as part of preparation for CAP24 10 6 3 0 3 4 5 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 00 7 7 8 4 4 0 8 10 6 2 6 2 8 10 12 45 35 2018 25 30 40 2050 Electricity A pathway to 2050 carbon neutrality requires rapid shifts to renewable sources Source EPA Ireland s Provisional Greenhouse Gas Emissions , 1990 2022; SEAI (2023), Net ero by 2050; CAP23 CO2 emissions to 2050 in electricity, Mt CO2e Implications for actions to 2030 Delivery of CAP goals requires rapid expansion of renewables, grid capacity and flexibil ity ey drivers of pathway Abatement to 2030 Major shift to 80% renewables (incl. 14 GW wind, 8 GW solar), as per Climate Action Plan Abatement in 2031 2050 Further shift to 70 90% renewables by 2050. Additionally S1 Medium level of industrial CCUS, heat networks and energy efficiency. S2 igh levels of heat networks and energy efficiency. S3 igh levels of heat networks, medium level of energy efficiency. S4 Low levels of heat networks and efficiency, more 2 and bio derived gas ey uncertainties Abilityto rapidly expand grid capacity Ability for supply chain to expand in l ine with ambition of renewables expansion 1. CAP pathway modelled such that SECs in Budgets 1 and 2 are met, and that sectoral target for 2030 is met. 2. Bioenergywith carbon capture andstorage. CAP pathway S4. SEAI decarbonised gas pathway S2. SEAI Rapid progress pathway S1. SEAI Balanced pathway S3. SEAI igh electrification pathway SEAI 2050 pathways Climate Action Plan Published SEAI pathways do not model updated CAP 2030 target thus, an indicative range of 2031 35 emissions that is aligned with SEAI pathways is shown Indicative range of 2031 35 emissions 42 Emissions Intensity of GDP In order to reach net zero, emissions intensity must decline. The most exposed sectors will be those with high emissions intensity in their own operations; those whose products, in turn, emit while being used; or those that have high emissions embedded in their supply chains. From analysis conducted in 2019, Ireland’s climate neutral pathway implies a decline in emissions intensity by approximately 96%, from ~ 170 kgCO2/thousand USD in 2017 to ~ 8 10 kgCO2/thousand USD by 2050. 21 Figure 8.1.2 Emission Reduction Measures and Milestones to 2050 The core measures necessary to deliver a net zero emissions electricity sector are to deliver significantly higher renewable power capacity mostly through onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar PV. To achieve the required increase in renewable electricity capacity, installation rates of wind and solar power will need to significantly accelerate. We will also need to ensure the timely modernisation and expansion of the power grid in a cost-effective way through the involvement of developers, network operators, communities and other stakeholders. This in turn requires resources and new technologies to manage the intermittency on the grid and ensure our energy supply is stable and secure. 21 McKinsey Global Institute; MACC analysis 43 Further measures will aim to deliver a range of flexible technologies and practices that could enable the grid to function with high levels of intermittent sources of power. • Power storage: development of a variety of long duration storage technologies to capture of energy from intermittent sources (e.g., wind/ solar) for use at a later time – with particular focus on batteries and the storage of renewable power, such as gas (e.g., green Hydrogen) • Power-to-gas: conversion of electrical power into renewable gases that can later be distributed on an as-needed basis, enabling the balance of supply from intermittent sources and demand Climate Action Plan 2024 sets a number of major milestones including to deliver total installed capacity of at least 5 GW of offshore wind capacity and 9 GW of onshore wind and 8GW of solar capacity by 2030. Delivering the Climate Action Plan requires upgrade and expansion of the electricity grid infrastructure to accommodate increased renewable generation as well as increased electrification of energy use (particularly in transport and built environment sectors). As set out in the Climate Action Plan, a long-term electricity system development strategy to achieve our 2050 objective may require the following potential policies and opportunities: • A policy to require future dispatchable generation to be zero carbon gas ready; • The continued delivery of required levels of variable renewable electricity generation and supporting infrastructure as we electrify buildings, industry and transport; • Zero carbon demand growth supported by an industrial spatial strategy to locate new industrial development with renewable generation opportunities; • The continued delivery of demand flexibility, to incentivise demand when low carbon variable renewable electricity is available; • Further policies to incentivise the construction of short and long duration storage to provide for smoothing of electricity supply and demand between times of high variable renewable production and low variable renewable production; • Policies to ensure that zero carbon gases, like hydrogen, are utilised in the electricity sector to provide zero carbon dispatchable electricity at sufficient scale; • Policies to support the development of inter seasonal storage of hydrogen; • Development of further interconnectors with other European markets; • Industrial spatial strategy to locate new industrial development with renewable generation opportunities. 44 Required by all Sectors The pathway outlined above will require market mechanisms that support intermittent energy sources, as well as provision of capacity and effective market signals to produce a reliable demand-side response. Furthermore, the streamlining of licensing, permitting and planning for infrastructure and providing clarity in terms of timing and administrative requirements will underpin the transition required by all sectors. Zero-emissions gas will also be required in a climate neutral pathway in order to support the intermittency of wind and solar generation. .2 Industry State of Play As Ireland and the world aim for a climate neutral economy by 2050, the transition to low carbon has become a defining force for business. Building sustainable, low-carbon, businesses is becoming increasingly imperative, not only from a social and environmental perspective, but also from a market-competitive and financial one. Business models which are sustainable and focused on decarbonisation are crucial to long-term resilience. Equally, companies and sectors that fail to decarbonise will become increasingly uncompetitive. This has the potential to have far reaching negative impacts for the economy, including locking us into a redundant fossil-fuel based economic model. As a small open economy, we need the enterprise sector to be resilient and competitive in international markets. Industry will play a pivotal role in reducing our emissions by 51% by 2030, and in Ireland becoming a climate neutral and resilient economy by no later than the end of 2050. It influences the way scarce resources are managed along supply chains, from raw materials to the consumption of final products and the disposal of waste. It constructs and uses a large share of our building stock and manages significant transport flows. However, emissions from industry in the greenhouse gas inventory include only those associated with industry/production processes, i.e., manufacturing combustion, industrial processes and F gases. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), industry was responsible for 10.9% of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, emitting ~6.6 Mt CO2eq..The sector accounts for a smaller share of total emissions relative to other EU countries. The majority of emissions come from manufacturing, food and beverages processing, alumina production, and cement. Industry emissions are highly correlated with economic activity; emissions from the sector increased steadily between 2012 and 2018 as the recovery of the Irish economy 45 accelerated but remain significantly below the levels of the early 2000s. Swift implementation of Climate Action Plan measures will be important to ensure that any progress already made can be maintained and that the performance of the sector can be decoupled from greenhouse gas emissions. A significant share of the emissions in this sector fall under the EU-wide Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Installations which fall within the EU ETS must purchase a permit for the greenhouse gases they emit. The availability of permits reduces year on-year in order to meet an EU target of 43% emissions reduction by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. The EU “Fit for 55” package proposes that emissions from the current EU ETS sectors (including the extension to maritime transport) be reduced by 61% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. If agreed, this would represent an increase of 18 percentage points compared to the current -43% contribution from the EU ETS to the EU’s climate target. For enterprise to contribute to our climate objectives, and particularly for the Irish ETS sector to meet the proposed new EU ETS target, a dramatic turnaround is required from the sector’s recent trend of a 48% increase in EU ETS emissions between 2011 and 2021. Table 8.2.1 ETS/Non-ETS emissions 2010 – 2020 Emissions from industry that fall outside the EU ETS are highly diverse, with a large proportion arising from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), including those working with industrial gases (also known as fluorinated or F-Gases). These are gases with high global warming potential, which are used in refrigeration, air conditioning and semiconductor manufacturing. According to a Central Statistics Office publication in July 2022, the population of enterprises in Ireland was 278,862 in 2020, with SMEs accounting for 99.8% of the total.22 22 Business Demography 2020 - CSO - Central Statistics Office https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-bd/businessdemography2020/ 46 Pathway to 2030 Sectoral Emissions Ceilings and Climate Action Plan 2024 Under the sectoral emissions ceilings agreed by the Government on 28 July 2022, the industry sector has been set a binding carbon budget of 54 MtCO2eq. over the period from 2021 to 2030, which corresponds with a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to the baseline year of 2018.23 Climate Action Plan 2021, which was prepared ahead of agreeing sectoral emissions ceilings, provides a pathway to emissions reductions for the sector (including F-gases) in the range of 29% to 41% by 2030, relative to 2018, and despite increasing production. This was further updated Climate Action Plan 2023, to align with the agreed sectoral emissions ceiling for the sector, and to update the roadmap of actions where necessary to ensure compliance. Key measures in Climate Action Plan 2024 include increasing the share of carbon neutral heating in total fuel demand, phasing out high-GWP F-gases, reducing embodied carbon in construction, electrification of industry low to medium heating, measures to reduce energy demand reduction in industry and increasing the use of zero emission gas. The Climate Action Plan also tasks several of the State Agencies, such as the SEAI, IDA, EI and others, with supporting industry in the transition to 2030. In parallel to implementing the Climate Action Plan, Ireland will continue to work proactively with our EU partners, including considering the further reforms proposed under the “Fit for 55” package or supplementary measures, to ensure that the EU ETS can effectively deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, while addressing the challenges faced by sectors most exposed to international competition. A strong price signal, as part of a reformed EU ETS, including progressively more restrictive rules on how many allowances will be available within the EU ETS, is expected to drive decarbonisation over the coming decade by increasing the cost to firms in the EU ETS of doing nothing to reduce their emissions. Industry sectors outside the EU ETS will be incentivised by the general carbon price trajectory set by Government in successive budgets which is now set at €56 per tCO2 and is legally required to reach €100 per tCO2 by 2030 but will also be exposed to carbon price movements within the EU ETS in circumstances where such prices can be passed on by EU ETS sectors. As we progressively decarbonise our economy, policy must prevent a large 23 The technical classifications underpinning the EPA inventories and projections do not always align neatly with the configuration of Ministerial accountabilities and associated Departmental structures. Here enterprise covers emissions primarily from manufacturing combustion and industrial processes 47 gap emerging between carbon pricing in the EU ETS and non-EU ETS sectors to ensure an ongoing strong signalling effect for decarbonisation. Pathway to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Full decarbonisation of the industry sector poses significant challenges. There is no known way to deliver complete decarbonisation in some industry sub-sectors, such as cement. This means that the sector will need to reduce emissions as much as possible and use negative emissions to offset these remaining emissions. Delivering this pathway will require integrated action amongst industrial players, the power sector and Government. Figure 8.2.2: Annual emissions from industry to 2050 Emission Reduction Measures and Milestones to 2050 The 2030 target is a steppingstone towards the ambition of achieving climate neutrality, with a relatively clear trajectory for the sector to 2050. Achieving a fully decarbonised industry sector will require; driving material efficiency in construction to reduce embodied energy in materials; employing heat pumps for low-temperature heat and zero emissions gas/ bioenergy for high-temperature heat; fully switching fuel used for cement (e.g., waste, bioenergy) and alumina; and utilising CCS and innovative binders in cement. 84 Prepared with DECC as part of preparation for CAP24 Industry Climate neutrality by 2050 likely driven by electrification, ero emissions fuels, and CCS Source Climate Action Plan 2023, Long term Strategy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Industry and other sector CO2 emissions, 2018 2030, Mt CO2e 1,2,3,4 ey drivers of pathway ey uncertainties Emissions in 2050 Ramp up of carbon capture technologies in the cement industry Carbon capture and removals in cement industry to abate remaining share of process emission (e.g., af ter clinker substitution) Electrif ication potential of high temperature (e.g., 150 200 C) 1. National Inventory Report (NIR) indicates limited to no methane (C 4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in industry sector; NIR indicated ~85% of emissions in waste sector arise from methane emissions (e.g., waste disposal sites ) and ~10% from nitrous oxide (e.g., domestic water);Waste sector presumed to show delayed emission reduction from ~0.9 Mt CO2e in 2021 to ~0.6 Mt CO2e by 2030 and ~0 Mt CO2e in 2050 at constant share of CO2e from C 4 and N2 2. Includes Other sector, i.e., F gases, Waste Management, Oil Gas 3. Uncertainty in pathway driven by uptake of CCS in cement (including biofuels ) and electrification of alumina segment ~(1) Mt CO 2e Negative emission result from BECCS in cement plants Implications for actions to 2030 Development of national strategy to support inf rastructure requirements to capture, transport and store CO2 Build out of renewable f uel capacity (e.g., electroly ser capacity ) Electrif ication of industry low to medium heating (e.g., f ood, bev erage and tobacco) ero emission f uels in high temperature applications (e.g., biomethane, hy drogen) Uptake rate and potential of ero emission f uels (e.g., renewable hy drogen) ~0.2 Mt CO 2e Limited deployment of renewable biogenic sources of heating in cement reduce impact of negative emissions Long term strategy Climate Action Plan 3 1 0 6 4 5 1 2 7 35 0 40 1 30 1 25 2018 45 2050 7 6 1 1 4 2 0 4 CAP23 Rapid Progress Scenario Delayed Progress Scenario 48 Core measures to support decarbonisation are fuel substitution including alternative fuels in cement and lime, electrification of low-temperature industrial processes, and increased solid biomass use. Further and alternative measures in industry could include zero-emissions gas (e.g., biogas/ bio-methane) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and CO2 injection into concrete to promote calcification and rapid cure. These are particularly important for the cement and alumina sectors. At a sectoral level, decarbonisation of cement production may require a suite of abatement levers including CCS and low-energy carbonate binders. By 2050, the cement industry could source 100% of its energy needs from waste, although this would require a secure supply of energy-dense waste in significant volumes. Alternative opportunities may be able to offer emission reductions, such as low-energy carbonate binders, energy efficiency improvements and clinker / feedstock substitution. Each of these options presents different challenges, although the abatement cost through CCS is expected to fall as technology improves. Climate Action Plan 2024 commits to the establishment of a framework for analysis of the potential for CCS deployment for Ireland including assessment of the environmental, technical, and financial factors and including feasibility in electricity and cement sectors. In other industries including the food sector, the most likely decarbonisation path is to electrify low/ mid-temperature heat and to use zero-emissions gas and/ or bioenergy for high-temperature heat. As discussed above, an important short-term priority will be to define the future of zero-emissions gas, given its particular importance for high temperature heat production. F-gases As the enterprise sector transitions to electrification and the use of heat pump technologies become more prevalent, this will lead to a subsequent increase in the level of emissions from F-gases as heat pump technologies require F-gases to transfer heat and cool air from one section to another. Novel technologies will be required to phase out F-gas emissions from use in heat pumps to see a reduction in F-gas emissions as Ireland electrifies the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. 49 .3 Built Environment State of Play The built environment covers residential, commercial and public sector buildings and includes homes, workplaces, schools and hospitals, with 1.8 million permanently occupied dwellings in Ireland, according to the latest available census data, (a number which is expected to grow to 2.5 million by 2050) and about 136,000 non-residential buildings. The built environment sector was responsible for 8.2MtCO2eq. of greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, which accounted for 11.9% of Ireland’s overall emissions for the year. The main emissions in this sector arise from the use of fossil fuel for space and water heating, as the majority of the other end-uses (e.g., lighting, appliances) are already fully electrified. Since 2005, Ireland has experienced some success in reducing the share of national emissions from this sector, reducing from 13% of total emissions in 2005 to 11.9% in 2022. This was achieved despite a large increase in our building stock over the same period. Notwithstanding these reductions, Ireland’s emissions from buildings remain above the EU average. This is because our heating systems are largely reliant on fossil fuels, including oil fired boilers and solid fuels such as peat and coal. Reducing our emissions in this sector means both reducing the energy demand through energy efficiency and decarbonising energy that we do use. Improving the energy efficiency of our buildings will not only reduce emissions, but also reduce our dependence on imported fossil fuels and improve our living standards, by providing buildings which are more comfortable, healthier, safer and less costly to heat. A high level of building standards will help ensure that the energy needs of new buildings are very low. For existing buildings, energy efficiency means improving the fabric of our buildings. Pathway to 2030 Sectoral Emissions Ceiling and Climate Action Plan 2023 Under the sectoral emissions ceilings agreed by the Government on 28 July 2022, the Built Environment sector has been set a binding carbon budget of 64 MtCO2 eq. over the period from 2021 to 2030, which corresponds with a 44% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to the baseline year of 2018.24 24 The technical classifications underpinning the EPA inventories and projections do not always align neatly with the configuration of Ministerial accountabilities and associated Departmental structures. Here built environment covers emissions primarily from residential, commercial and public sector buildings 50 Climate Action Plan 2023, published in December 2022, sets out the policies, measures and actions that will be necessary to achieve the required emissions reduction. Subsequent plans, which will be published annually, will develop these actions further. To meet the required level of emissions reduction, by 2030 Ireland must significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, oil, and peat) to heat our buildings and support an ambitious expansion in retrofit activity to underpin this reduction. This direction of travel is being further driven and supported by EU policy under the Energy Efficiency Directive, Renewable Energy Directive, the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and REPowerEU. Key measures for 2030 set out in the 2024 Climate Action Plan include: the effective phase out of the use of fossil fuels for space and water heating in all new buildings and developing the roadmap for the phase out of fossil fuels in existing buildings; the completion of the equivalent of 500,000 residential retrofits, including the installation of 400,000 heat pumps, to achieve a B2 BER/cost optimal; supporting public and commercial buildings to deliver savings of 735 Kt CO2, and; the delivery of up to 2.7 TWh of district heating. Further, the plan commits to progressively strengthen the Building Regulations for all types of buildings, including to implement legislative changes at EU level, promote the use of lower carbon alternatives in construction, and promote behavioural change in how households use energy. Pathway to Climate Neutrality by 2050 In order to meet an economy-wide target of climate neutrality by 2050, Ireland will need to decarbonise its built environment. The pathway to decarbonisation will include the continuation and expansion of the measures from the Climate Action Plan, including the retrofit of existing housing stock and electrification of heat across residential, commercial, and public buildings. All buildings will need to switch to technologies such as heat pumps or district heating by 2050, meaning that the gas grid will no longer supply existing homes and commercial premises. This approach would see the sectors emissions drop to about 1-2 MtCO2eq. in 2040, before reaching zero in 2050. The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (recast) was formally adopted on 12 April 2024. For non-residential buildings, the revised rules require renovating the 16% worst performing buildings by 2030. Ireland will be required to establish a National Building 51 Renovation Plan which must set out the national strategy to decarbonise the building stock and how to address remaining barriers, such as financing, training and attracting more skilled workers. The recast Energy Performance of Buildings Directive will also make zero-emission buildings the standard for new buildings. Under the agreement all new residential and non-residential buildings must have zero on-site emissions from fossil fuels, as of 1 January 2028 for publicly-owned buildings and as of 1 January 2030 for all other new buildings, with some specific exemptions. Ireland will also have to ensure that new buildings are solar-ready, meaning that they have to be fit to host rooftop photovoltaic or solar thermal installations. Installing solar energy installations will become the norm for new buildings. For existing public and non-residential buildings solar will need to be gradually installed, starting from 2027, where this is technically, economically and functionally feasible. Such provisions will come into force at different points in time depending on the building type and size. Figure 8.3.1: Annual Emissions from Built Environment (residential and commercial25) to 2050 25 “Commercial” includes emissions from public buildings, as per the Government decision of July 2022 86 Prepared with DECC as part of preparation for CAP24 Built Environment Impact driven by continued deployment of retrofit, heat pumps, and district heating Source Climate Action Plan 2023, Long term Strategy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Built Env ironment sector CO2 emissions, 2018 2030, Mt CO2e 1,2 ey drivers of pathway ey uncertainties Emissions in 2050 Continued deployment rate of in line with targets set out in Climate Action Plan 2023 Pathway driv en by measures included in Climate Action Plan 2023 Actual technology split across building stock to move away f rom f ossil f uel heating ~0 Mt CO 2e Climate neutrality in 2050 achieved through deployment of energy intensity measures and the move towards ero emission heating, incl. district heating, electrification and ero emission fuels Implications for actions to 2030 Develop required inf rastructure f or f urther buildout of renewable heating (e.g., district heating) Continued energy intensity measures including retrof its to BER B2 or equiv alent building ratings Switch f rom f ossil f uel heating towards alternativ e heating sources (e.g., electrif ication, district heating and ero emission f uel) 1. Trajectory dependent on uptake of measures specified in CAP23 including continued retrofit rate and replacement of fossil fuel heating. ariability estimated by presumed 10% variabilityfactor 2. Includes residential , commercial and public built environment sector. 3.~7 Mt CO2e corresponds to stated CAP ambition of 20% reduction by 2025 rounded value in CAP23 is 6 Mt CO2e. 4 0 5 1 2 8 7 3 9 6 5 1 2018 25 30 35 45 1 40 1 2050 9 73 3 2 0 2 CAP23 Leading decarbonisation 1 Lagging decarbonisation 1 Long term strategy Climate Action Plan 52 Emission Reduction Measures and Milestones to 2050 Key components of a net zero pathway in the built environment will be compact urban growth, zero energy new buildings, fabric first (retrofit) and renewable heating. • Compact urban growth: urban planning and compact urban growth are critical to reducing heating demand and travel distances. Densely populated areas can also facilitate the introduction of district heating networks; • Zero Emission new buildings: Zero Emission Buildings (ZEB) principles will be incorporated in the design of new buildings to ensure sustainability of the growing building stock; • Fabric-first: retrofitting existing buildings will ensure that emissions reduction is achieved in a cost-effective and energy efficient way, while also providing significant co-benefits in terms of thermal comfort and improved health for dwellers; • Renewable heating: electrification and the deployment of district heating will ensure that our buildings are heated using renewable sources. These measures will require continued investment to ensure the electricity grid infrastructure is ready to accommodate the transition, by upgrading and enhancing the network to enable it to support electrification of energy used in our buildings. In taking these measures, the principles within our just transition framework will guide policy decisions to support vulnerable households, and to help ensure that every group makes an appropriate and fair level of effort in the transition. Further research and development in the decarbonisation of the built environment will be required to unlock potential emission reductions, particularly in the areas of low-cost retrofits, high temperature heat-pumps, and district heating. The first set of milestones and decisions are: • Reach target scale of annual building retrofits Continuing to scale up deployment of retrofit for existing dwellings with poor energy performance coupled with the roll-out of heat pumps as established under the Climate Action Plan. This will require the active support and stimulation of both demand for and supply of retrofits. For the residential sector, the National Retrofit Plan sets out Ireland’s approach to meeting our retrofit targets. The Plan was guided by a number of key principles including: Fairness: ensuring fairness to all and supporting a just transition 53 Universality: covering all housing types and consumer segments/income deciles Customer-centric: designing customer centric solutions to reduce the costs and hassle, making the process easier for those investing in retrofit • District Heating SEAI’s National eat Study has identified that district heating could provide as much as 50% of building heat demand in Ireland. The Government will need to make a number of decisions relating to supports for the rollout of district heating in Ireland; the development of a regulatory framework to protect consumers and suppliers; the manner in which national, regional and local planning frameworks encourage and facilitate the development of district heating; and financing mechanisms to support the delivery of district heating projects. Government will develop a regulatory framework for geothermal energy and a strategy for the development of the geothermal energy sector, including as a source of heat district heating schemes. The sector will also be developed to provide a renewable source of energy for cooling buildings across all sectors, for heat storage and electricity generation. • Planning for the phase-out of fossil fuel heating systems Ending the installation of fossil fuel heating systems in existing buildings will be a key step in our transition to zero emissions heating in our building stock. A roadmap will be developed to support this transition, setting out the required policy and regulatory instruments, to promote greater electrification of domestic heating and to accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels for heating. We will continue to drive the development of the supply chain to support the achievement of our heat pump targets so that the technology will become the default solution for householders in choosing a new heating system in the coming years, with district heating also becoming more widely available in the coming years. 54 . Transport State of Play The transport sector includes road transport, domestic aviation and maritime, and railways. The sector has a critical role to play in national decarbonisation policy, given that it accounts for approximately 19.4% of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions. Road transportation accounts for 94% of those emissions and gives rise to a range of air pollutants that can potentially impact both human health and the environment. Transport emissions peaked at 14.4 MtCO2eq. in 2007, falling during the economic recession to 10.9 MtCO2eq. in 2012. As the economic recovery took hold, the sector’s emissions began to rise once more, illustrating a continued relationship between transport emissions and economic activity in Ireland that must be addressed. Ongoing development and implementation of the Climate Action Plan offers a pathway towards a low-emitting and sustainable transport sector. However, it is clear that to deliver an economy-wide 51% GHG emission reduction by 2030, the level of ambition and supporting actions must be based on a systematic and transformative approach to the sector. According to the EPA, emissions from the Transport sector fell to 10.3 MtCO2eq. in 2020 before rebounding to 10.91 MtCO2eq in 2021 as Covid-19 restrictions were eased. While early estimates suggest that transport emissions continued to rise in 2023 to an estimated 11.8 MtCO₂eq. (SEAI 2023), the rate of increase has slowed significantly. However, the need to substantially accelerate the implementation of Climate Action Plan measures is clear to limit and counteract emissions growth associated with increased social and economic activity from future population growth. The population of Ireland is expected to reach 5.7 million by 2040 from a current estimate of 5.1 million in 2022. In parallel, over the next two decades there are projections of both employment and economic growth that may stimulate greater transport activity and demand. Without systemic and transformative changes in travel patterns, modal share, and technology, a growth in current transport activity and demand will further diminish our national competitiveness, quality of life, and decarbonisation goals. The main challenges facing decarbonisation of the sector are: • The universal nature of transport, i.e., that it impacts everyone in society; 55 • In the absence of suitable alternatives to the car at a national level, a cultural mindset has been embedded over decades whereby only car ownership is associated with perceptions of freedom and convenience – this is partly a result of our settlement patterns and previous policy-making; • Communicating the significant benefits of decarbonisation – those that extend beyond carbon emission abatement – to a wide variety of societal cohorts; • How to decouple travel demand from economic growth; • How to address transport poverty while achieving decarbonisation of the sector; • Addressing the significant lead-in times associated with the delivery of major transport infrastructure and rollout of additional public transport services as attractive and compelling alternatives to private car use; • The complex nature of instituting effective governance and oversight across the range of policies and structures relevant to decarbonising the transport sector; • The competing objectives, impacts and costs of decarbonisation as each of the other sectors strive to reduce emissions. There is an increasing pressure for the transportation sector to decarbonise, with an increased focus on the high emissions associated with some modes of transport. Public attitudes are continuing to shift in favour of living and working locally, there is increasing pressure to deliver public transport and active mobility options and business is also paying more attention to the environmental impact of their logistics within their wider supply chains. Action on Non-Road Transport Activities As a small open economy on the periphery of Europe, the aviation and maritime sectors are critical for the movement of our goods and people. It should be noted that emissions from international aviation and from shipping remain outside national emissions targets for EU Member States and are not covered by the Paris Agreement. To use aviation as an example, due to the complexities involved in the attribution and accounting for international emissions and the international character of aviation, tackling these emissions, as agreed by the IPCC, requires strategies and actions at international level. Measures are being taken in line with actions both at EU level and globally. The EU ‘Fit for 55’ Package of measures for example, is aimed at reducing net greenhouse gas emissions at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This package of measures 56 includes among others the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, Fuel EU Maritime and an environmentally ambitious revision of the EU Emissions Trading scheme. In Q1 of 2024, the EU Commission, communicated a proposal to set an intermediate target for 2040 of a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions. This communication recognises that there will be a requirement to consider the barriers to deployment at scale of alternative low and zero-emissions fuels for aviation and maritime. Ireland will continue to support appropriate actions taken at EU and global levels to reduce emissions from the aviation and maritime sectors. Pathway to 2030 Over the next decade, transportation must undergo an unprecedented transition in order to decarbonise. Key drivers for mitigation in this decade will focus on demand reduction, a shift away from the car to more sustainable modes (walking, cycling, public transport) and the continuing electrification of transport fleets. Demand reduction coupled with sustainable and shared mobility will be delivered over time by progressing integrated transport and spatial planning as well as the necessary infrastructure and services to support a shift from car use to sustainable and accessible mobility, both at the national level and in co-operation with local authorities. Notwithstanding the current geopolitical challenges, including global supply chain and resource scarcity, it is anticipated that battery electric passenger cars, vans and light trucks could reach cost-parity with petrol and diesel vehicles mid-way through this decade. While there has previously been a high level of uncertainty as to the likely technological pathway for decarbonising the HGV sector, the recently agreed EU CO2 standard for heavy duty vehicles will drive the mainstream production of zero emission heavy goods vehicles. Together with the requirements that are set out under the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation under the EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ legislative package, which obligate Member States to provide a sufficiently dense electric charging point and alternative fuel refuelling network, it is expected that a transition to battery electric vehicles for this sector will be possible in the near future. While the sector will continue to rely mainly on diesel in the interim, there will be an increasing use of biofuels as a transitional measure going forward. Sectoral Emissions Ceiling and Climate Action Plan 2024 Under the sectoral emissions ceilings agreed by the Government on 28 July 2022, the Transport sector has been set a binding carbon budget of 91 MtCO2eq. over the period from 57 2021 to 2030, which corresponds with a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to the baseline year of 2018.26 Climate Action Plan 2024 provides a pathway to 50% emissions reductions for the sector by 2030 (relative to 2018). Primary measures to deliver decarbonisation to 2030 include measures to reduce and curtail aspects of road transport demand, a strong shift to sustainable travel modes and the electrification of vehicle fleets. The challenge is not so much in setting the pathway to transport decarbonisation, but rather in delivering the requisite policy supports, investment, infrastructure and information, so that the behavioural and technological changes are understandable, easy, plausible and attractive for citizens and businesses, and so that the necessary rates of change can be delivered in a just and fair manner. Nonetheless, delivery of the transport measures will be extremely challenging, as it involves significant changes to long-ingrained personal and social behaviours in the majority of the population. While a pathway has been identified, the practical delivery and success of the measures to achieve the emissions reductions targets will be difficult. As well as continuing the technology improvements previously committed to, demand reduction with modal shift will play an important role in the development of a more sustainable transport system over the next decade. Government investment in public transport, cycling and walking infrastructure, along-side the provision of increased public transport services and shared mobility options, will help to reduce reliance on private cars and address congestion in our cities. This investment is essential if we are to meet the level of system and behavioural change required to deliver on our climate ambition (including targets of a 50% increase in daily active travel journeys and a 130% increase in daily public transport journeys by 2030). Travel demand is expected to grow to 2030 due to population growth; thus, corrective measures will be necessary. The policy focus must be to ensure transport demand is reduced and that we are well positioned to pursue a more widespread modal shift in order to reduce the share of private car journeys arising from the public investments that we will make over the next decade. Supporting National Plans The 2024 Climate Action Plan will support and build on several key national policy plans that are driving the necessary changes in the transport sector, including Project Ireland 2040, the 26 The technical classifications underpinning the EPA inventories and projections do not always align neatly with the configuration of Ministerial accountabilities and associated Departmental structures. 58 National Planning Framework, Housing for All, the National Remote Work Strategy, the National Adaptation Framework, Our Rural Future – Rural Development Policy 2021-2025, and transport sectoral policies such as the Sustainable Mobility Policy, Road Haulage Strategy 2022-2031, National EV Charging Infrastructure Strategy, Renewable Transport Fuels Policy 2023-2025, and draft Moving Together demand management strategy. Pathway to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Our vision is that Ireland’s transport sector will be carbon neutral by 2050. This will require coordinated action of Government, State transport agencies, Local Authorities, individuals and business, and needs to progress in tandem with technological and regulatory developments within the EU. To achieve our emissions abatement ambition for both 2030 and for 2050, and to reduce the negative externalities associated with high levels of car dependency (both ICE and EV), transformative behavioural and systemic changes will be required in relation to reducing our demand for travel and changing how our residual travel needs are met. To achieve these changes, Climate Action Plan 2024 identifies co-operation between the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage, and with the Local Authorities, as crucial for integrating climate action and transport in the spatial planning system, to better enhance placemaking and accessibility considerations. Achieving climate neutrality will require continued and significant electrification of passenger cars and commercial vehicles, including for heavy duty vehicles by 2050. It will require the continued use of alternative fuels as a transitional measure, particularly for heavy duty and long-haul vehicles. Many of these measures are expected to be cost-beneficial before 2030 but will require adequate infrastructure to be in place for businesses and private individuals to fully take advantage of zero-emission technologies. Radical shifts in the organisation of different modes of our transport system, driven by digitalisation, automation data sharing and interoperable standards, will take place over the next three decades. Effective regulation will be needed to ensure that technological developments maximise decarbonisation within the sector, by facilitating smart traffic management, shared mobility options, freight efficiency, modal shift and demand management, which in turn will reduce congestion and increase occupancy rates in transport fleets, both public and private. 59 Figure 8.4.1: Annual Emissions from Transport to 2050 Emission Reduction Measures and Milestones to 2050 As set out below, the core technology-based measures to achieve a fully decarbonised transport system by 2050 will be the electrification of passenger cars, vans, light trucks and buses and, with a longer time lag, HGVs. This reflects the technology readiness and cost effectiveness for these segments as well as their share of Ireland’s overall transport emissions. All passenger cars could be electrified by the early 2040s, driven by economic competitiveness of battery electric vehicle (BEV) cars, and the anticipated EU wide ban of new fossil fuel-powered car sales from 2035 onwards (through the CO2 standards for cars and vans regulation). The process of electrifying the light truck and bus fleet will accelerate throughout the 2020s and early 2030s driven by light electric trucks potentially reaching cost competitiveness before 2030. Legacy fossil fuel trucks could be substantially phased out by early 2040s in an economically optimal pathway. It will be important to put in place suitable policy and regulatory structures to support this transition and to account for potential downsides associated with the electrification of the national vehicle fleet, including for example, increased demand for batteries and cost, affordability and sustainable supply issues. Further technology measures that will contribute to full decarbonisation of Ireland’s transport system will be deployment of zero carbon fuel alternatives for domestic aviation, navigation and railways. Synthetic or eFuels rely upon hydrogen production and additional renewable 85 Prepared with DECC as part of preparation for CAP24 Transport Climate neutrality potentially achieved through demand management, electrification, sustainable fules Source Climate Action Plan 2023, Long term Strategy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Transport sector CO2 emissions, 2018 2030, Mt CO2e ey drivers of pathway Emissions in 2050 Electrif ication of road transport, including passenger cars, LD s, G s and buses3 ey uncertainties Ramp up of ero emission v ehicles and f uels Ef f ectiv eness of demand management measures ~0 Mt CO 2e Climate neutrality in 2050 achieved through deployment of ero emission vehicles or ero emission fuels Implications for actions to 2030 Build out of inf rastructure requirements, including electric charging, hy drogen pumps Development of supply chain f or production of sustainable f uels, including renewable hy drogen and sustainable biomass Long term strategy Deployment of f uel cell electric (FCE ) v ehicles in LD s, G s and buses Climate Action Plan Demand management measures, specif ically modal shif ts (e.g., public transport) Expansion of inf rastructure to f acilitate modal shif t, including f reight and passenger cars 1. Presumed uptake roughly in line with average lifetime of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles 2. Allows for slower switch to ero emission fuels modelled through exponential uptake indicating shift of uptake towards later in 2030 2050 period 3. Light duty vehicles (LD s), eavy good vehicles ( G s) 6 0 1 7 5 9 2 3 4 8 10 12 11 13 12 2018 35 2 10 40 1 4 30 25 2 45 2050 6 1 0 3 CAP23 Natural replenishment rate scenario Delayed uptake scenario 60 electricity, therefore in the shorter-term a contributing technology will be biofuels, in particular advanced biofuels from a wider range of waste feedstocks. The implementation of Ireland’s National Planning Framework - and notably the National Strategic Objectives for Compact Growth and Sustainable Mobility - will also provide an essential underpinning to a decarbonised transport sector by 2050 by promoting high density residential development with greater urban densities, helping to reduce commuting travel distances and promoting a higher modal share for public transport and for active travel. Transport-led development will be critical to delivering the level of systemic transformation required in reversing Ireland’s high level of car dependency. Widespread development of the 15-minute neighbourhood concept in major cities and urbans centres will be a key factor. Modal shift will play a key role in decarbonisation by 2050. Our cities will be leaders in transport innovation due to the predominance of short-distance journeys, existing availability of public transport alternatives, air quality considerations and due to the requirement to provide for greater urban density in residential development, to ensure improved proximity to services and more viable public transport, and consequently a reduced demand for private car ownership. This will lead to large improvements in the quality of urban living in the coming decades. Mobility in rural areas will see significant changes over the decades, driven by investment to provide greater accessibility of public transport alternatives to private cars as well as by digitalisation. The implementation of the National Broadband Plan, and the establishment of remote working hubs, will underpin a significant shift in commuting patterns away from journeys between rural and urban areas for employment purposes. For passenger cars, an environment fostering the replacement of ICE cars after 2035 will be supported by various EV policy pathways relating to vehicles and charging infrastructure. In line with the EU regulations on alternatively fuelled infrastructure, this pathway will require significant ramping up in public charging sites (including fast motorway chargers) along with continued reliance on private / home charging by 2050. Sufficient space and an adequate grid connection should be available in the cities and along the motorways to install the public chargers. Charging policy must be designed to complement the transformation of cities to public transport and active modes and to facilitate bi-directional EV charging to facilitate the development of commercial grid balancing services. Heavy-duty freight and long-distance vehicles will begin to convert to zero emissions from mid-decade and throughout 2030s and 2040s. While there had been uncertainty as to the 61 likely technological pathway for the sector, electric trucks have emerged as the preferred option for the majority of the vehicle weights and journey lengths. Ensuring adequate charging infrastructure is available to fleet operators will be key to facilitating that transition. While hydrogen is not expected to play a significant role in the decarbonisation of the sector until post 2030, an appropriate regulatory framework will be developed to enable production, transportation, and storage of ammonia and green hydrogen. International Aviation and Shipping As global industries, the contribution of international aviation and shipping to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement requires a global response. In relation to Aviation, the 41st International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Assembly adopted a long-term aspirational goal (the LTAG), for aviation emissions reductions, including a collective global goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions from aviation by 2050. This included enhancing the basket of measures, which includes improved technology, promoting sustainable aviation fuels, operational improvements, and market based measures to assist in achieving the LTAG. The aviation industry in tandem, has committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. In 2023, ICAO convened the Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3). This was an important conference, as it was the first major International Civil Aviation Organisation event offering an opportunity to operationalise the LTAG, by adopting a global framework to incentivise the use of SAFs, LCAFs and other aviation cleaner energies (compared to zero cleaner energy use). The outcome of CAAF/3 was the agreement of an interim, non-binding target to reduce CO2 emissions from global aviation by 5% by 2030 and also that ICAO agreed to review the ambition and convene CAAF/4 by 2028, to take into account market developments and new investments in production capacity around the world. Shipping accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Under a business-as-usual scenario and if other sectors of the economy reduce emissions to keep the global temperature increase below 2oC, shipping could represent some 10% of global greenhouse emissions by 2050. The 2023 International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Strategy on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships has the objective to peak greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping as soon as possible and to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by or around (i.e., close to) 2050. It also contains 62 indicative checkpoints for reductions of 20-30% by 2030 and 70-80% by 2040 compared to 2008 levels. The 2023 strategy includes the development of a basket of candidate measures comprised of both a technical element, namely a goal-based marine fuel standard regulating the phased reduction of the marine fuel’s greenhouse gas intensity and an economic element, on the basis of a maritime greenhouse emissions pricing mechanism. Measures are to be adopted by 2025 and enter into force in 2027. This will encourage further development and use of low and zero carbon fuels in shipping, including a combination of bioenergy and renewable fuels, hydrogen and its derivatives. Research and development of these alternative fuels will require international collaboration requiring significant investments over the coming decades and Ireland will actively contribute to this agenda, including through a supportive research infrastructure where relevant. .5 Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use State of Play Agriculture The agri-food sector is one of Ireland’s largest industries. Agriculture makes an important contribution to Ireland’s society and economy. In 2021, it accounted for almost 7% of modified gross national income; 10% of exports in value terms; approximately 170,400 jobs representing 7.1% of total employment; and €15.4 billion of exports. The historical and economic importance of agriculture relative to other industries means that the sector is the single largest contributor to overall emissions, at 38.5% in 2022, representing more than one third of Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions (G Gs). Our carbon intensity per head of population in the sector, at 4.6 MtCO2eq., is substantially higher than the EU average reflecting the significant role that the agricultural sector plays in Ireland’s economic make-up and the lack of heavy industry in Ireland’s economic profile. Ireland is currently an efficient producer of both milk and beef, relative to other EU Member States and international competitors. However, as a biological system, as long as we produce food, fuel or fibre, there will always be residual emissions. Policies must continue to support the rapid development of new technologies while driving the rollout of existing solutions. Doing so, will allow us to maintain food production and secure the viability of our farmers while delivering on our climate targets out to 2050.”. 63 The Climate Act 2021 requires that Irish climate policy take account of ‘special economic and social role of agriculture including with regard to the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane’ It is clear, however, as laid out in Climate Action Plan 2024, that the high proportion of national emissions represented by agriculture means that for Ireland to meet its overall emissions reduction targets, along with all other sectors, the agriculture sector must make a positive contribution to combating climate change and supporting the transition to a climate resilient, biodiversity rich and climate neutral economy and society no later than 2050. Additionally, as other sectors decarbonise, the share of the agriculture contribution to the national emissions profile will increase. Land use, Land use change, and Forestry (LULUCF) According to the EPA’s 2023 data, LULUCF in Ireland was responsible for 3.9 MtCO2eq in 2022. Across the EU-27 since 1990, the LULUCF sector has been a net sink of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily due to extensive forest cover. In contrast, the Irish LULUCF sector has been a net source of GHG emissions in all years from 1990 to 2021. This is largely due to carbon emissions from Grasslands and Wetlands. Forests and Harvested Wood Products have been a significant carbon sink since 1990. However, this sink is in decline. Forest cover in Ireland represents 11.6% of the total land area in comparison to the EU average of 38%. Since the foundation of the State, forest cover in Ireland has grown significantly from 1.4% of the land area to current levels but is still below the national target of 18%. Grassland and Wetlands in Ireland are considerable sources of emissions as a result of the drainage of organic soils. The land-use category Cropland fluctuates between being a small net sink in some years and a small source of emissions in others. However, all of these categories have the potential to be managed as net sinks for GHGs in the longer term. Ireland will need to reverse this trend if it is to achieve its national climate targets. The pathways for Ireland to achieve climate neutrality will require the LULUCF sector to be developed into a net carbon sink in advance of 2050. Pathway to 2030 Agriculture: Sectoral Emissions Ceiling and Climate Action Plan 2021 According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in 2021 agriculture emissions were 23 MtCO2eq (note that this does not include the LULUCF sector), The most significant drivers for emissions in 2021 were increased use of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser use and higher dairy cow numbers with an increase in milk production. 64 Under the sectoral emissions ceilings agreed by the Government on 28 July 2022, the agriculture sector has been set a binding carbon budget of 202 MtCO2eq. over the period from 2021 to 2030, which corresponds with a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to the baseline year of 2018.27 Full implementation of the Climate Action Plan will deliver an emissions reduction from 23 Mt CO2eq. in 2018 to ≤17.25. MtCO2eq. in 2030, in line with a 25% reduction. Key measures included in Climate Action Plan 2024 to reduce on-farm emissions include a significant reduction in nitrous oxide emissions by changing farm management practices in relation to nutrient use improved GHG efficiencies from breeding, feed modification and earlier finishing age for cattle, an increase in the proportion of organic farming, and with the waste sector providing feedstocks for the production of indigenous sustainably produced biomethane. Additional measures required to achieve the 2030 target include enabling a carbon farming framework and exploring the potential for methane reducing feed additives for pasture-based solutions and by incentivising diversification across the sector. The Government is undertaking a comprehensive national Land Use Review, covering farmland, forests and peatlands, with the aim of ensuring that policy decisions are suitably informed by optimal land use strategies. The Government will also carry out diversification reviews for income and land use for farmers, including areas such biomethane and energy production, agro forestry and woodland creation. The Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan (CSP) for 2023 – 2027 will be an important delivery mechanism to achieve our climate ambition. The environmental and climate ambition within the CSP will be aligned to the Common Agricultural Policy’s new ‘green architecture’. This will operate across both pillars of Common Agricultural Policy expenditure to achieve a coherent overall approach. While the CSP has a key role to play in driving the decarbonisation of the agriculture sector, a whole-of-government, and whole-of-industry, approach will be needed (alongside the CSP) to achieve our overall climate objectives. 27 the technical classifications underpinning the EPA inventories and projections do not always align neatly with the configuration of Ministerial accountabilities and associated Departmental structures 65 Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry28 Ireland’s LULUCF sector is currently a net source of emissions, and emissions reductions for this sector are set to become increasingly challenging, as the age profile of the forest stock matures and harvesting levels increase in line with projected forecasts. The 2024 Climate Action Plan also sets out an alternative compliance pathway for the LULUCF sector that is no less ambitious or challenging than the others, but reflects the specific characteristics of land use, accounts for bio-physical and temporal reality, is feasible, and aligns with our longer-term climate objectives out to 2050. This new approach is more aligned to how the EU LULUCF Regulation deals with the fluctuations and limits within the LULUCF sector and will set us on a pathway to achieve our goals allowing for: the setting of activity targets and annual key performance indicators; sectoral accountability; and a 2030 emissions reduction target. The pathway will be subject to future reviews considering a current Land-use Review, ongoing inventory refinements, and any future developments in terms of international and national commitments. Key measures, for reducing emissions from LULUCF, included in Climate Action Plan 2024 are: increasing our annual afforestation rate and the promotion of forest management; initiatives to increase carbon sinks and stores; increasing the area of afforestation by 8,000 hectares/year; reducing the management intensity of 80,000 hectares of grassland on drained organic soils; improving our management for carbon sequestration of at least 450,000 hectares of grasslands on mineral soils; increasing the inclusion of cover crops in tillage to at least 50,000 hectares; increasing the incorporation of straw to tillage (cereal) area; and rehabilitating peatlands across numerous landowners and projects. Pathway to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Meeting Ireland’s 2050 climate neutral target will require agriculture to work together with all the other sectors of the Irish economy towards achieving climate neutrality by 2050. It will not be possible to completely eliminate emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide in the sector, making it necessary to offset any remaining emissions through negative emissions. Realising this pathway for the agriculture sector in a socially and economically viable way is challenging, but achievable. We need to accelerate sustainability transformation in agriculture, including through the scaling-up of greenhouse gas efficient food production, 28 Based on EPA data published in 2023, noting that there have been recent fluxes in the LULUCF baseline due to inventory refinements that will continue until at least the end of the decade. 66 diversifying farm activates (including in forestry and bioenergy crop production), deploying next-horizon technologies, and increasing sequestration from forests, peatlands/ wetlands, and improved grassland management. Supporting the unique capacity of the agriculture and forestry sectors to remove CO2 from the atmosphere will be a key component of this multi pronged approach for the sector. The benefits of delivering this transformation are manifold, not least maintaining Irish agri-food exports “green” reputation and supporting carbon offsets in other sectors. While reducing emissions will bring challenges there will also be opportunities for farmers and their communities, including diversification of farm-based incomes, as well as delivery of further benefits in biodiversity, water and air quality. Support for farmers and rural communities will be required in the transition to lower emissions farming activities. This investment will need to deliver active management of a transition of agricultural activities to establish sufficient and sustained education, knowledge transfer, and behavioural shift interventions. The crucial role played by the sector in limiting the impact of climate change will require sustained, integrated action and support over a number of decades, with Government, industry, research, science and consumers all having a role to play in reducing emissions from agriculture. Through the Climate Action Plan and the Ag-Climatise Strategy, we are rolling out an approach to stakeholder engagement with the sector which recognises the multi-faceted challenges facing the sector as well as the contribution that the sector will need to be empowered to make to achieve our climate objectives. Over the long-term, we will continue to build on our engagement with farmers and with the broader sector to help deliver our climate neutral goal. 67 Figure 8.5.1: Agricultural Emissions Reductions to 2050 Figure 8.5.2: LULUCF Emissions Reductions to 2050 68 Emission Reduction Measures and Milestones to 2050 To maintain Ireland’s leadership in production efficiency, and meet the 2050 emissions reduction targets for the sector, we will need to build on the developments in greenhouse efficient practices, technology and farm income diversity committed to under the 2024 Climate Action Plan, and pursue deep decarbonisation, for example, through incorporating feed additives, driving demand shift, adopting new technological solutions. In addition, we will continue work to enhance sink potential of various land uses in Ireland, including meeting our objective to achieve 18% forest cover in Ireland by 2050, while minimising emissions from other land under agricultural production and from non-agricultural wetlands. At 14 - 18% forest cover, forestry and Harvested Wood Products could deliver a sink of ~5.0 Mt CO2eq. in 2050. Further technologies will emerge over the coming decades that may provide additional abatement opportunities as they mature and come to market, including multiple nascent technologies which are not currently available/ available at scale, but which show promising emissions reduction potential, such as feed additives, vaccines and direct methane capture. Further research and development will be necessary to understand how some of these technologies might be successfully applied to grass-based agricultural systems such as Ireland’s. Engagement with farmers and the wider agriculture sector in delivering Ireland’s climate neutral target will be necessary. This will include supporting the sector to further develop land-based economic opportunities that will enable Ireland to meet its 2050 objectives, e.g., through the development of the bioenergy crop supply chain and through afforestation. The measures required are closely interconnected and will require the development of a strategic approach to land use alongside, and as part of, a long-term shift to low emissions agricultural production. Significant investment in research and development, including technology and infrastructure to unlock potential emissions reductions will be necessary to ensure we can deliver both core and further measures. This will mean supporting the development of new abatement technologies including bringing them to market with a particular focus on applicability to outdoor grass-fed systems. We will also need to define and scale up our strategy to incentivise the uptake of technologies such as methane-inhibiting vaccines, feed additives, as they come to market 69 so that we can deliver ongoing emissions abatement from new technologies from 2030 onwards. This will require continued investment to ensure farmers can properly adopt the new technologies as they emerge. We expect that innovation through digitalisation and smart technologies will play an increasingly important role in the deployment of new technologies at farm level and will underpin precision agriculture techniques such as optimal application of fertiliser and plant protection products. We will aim to provide global leadership on research into low emissions agriculture and will continue to develop our international research partnerships on agriculture and land-use, including through the UNFCCC, Food and Agriculture Organisation and OECD to coordinate the development of practical mitigation technologies for the sector. We will also pursue an EU-wide approach to future targets for agriculture emissions which takes account of both the relative carbon efficiency grass-based agricultural systems and the evolving science and metrics on the measurement and accounting of non-CO2 gases. We recognise that our existing policy commitment to support on-going afforestation rates to meet our mid-century target of 18% forest cover is extremely challenging and we will need to regularly review our approach to the promotion of afforestation to ensure we remain on track. Meeting this target will be essential to maintaining, and building up over time, the carbon sequestration capacity of our national forest estate which, in turn, will contribute to the annual negative emissions budget that will be required to offset remaining emissions from 2050 onwards. We will continue to refine our technical assessment of LULUCF as both sources and sinks of emissions access all land use categories and to define appropriate targets/measures, accordingly, including promotion of nature-based solutions where the carbon sink benefit of such approaches can be verified and where this is appropriate to local ecosystems. This will also require investment in our capacities to analyse land use activities with detailed granularity, including through satellite observations. Building on this, the current Land-use Review will assist in ensuring optimal land functionality to deliver climate and wider environmental benefits, while meeting market demands for food, bioenergy and wider bio-economy needs. Marine Significant developments are currently under way in the planning and consenting regime for the Marine Environment to support our ambitions for decarbonising our energy sector through the development of offshore renewable energy. Alongside this, work is being 70 undertaken to designate further marine Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) in the marine environment and to allow for the designation and management of Marine Protected Areas. This will allow the development of offshore renewable energy to progress at pace alongside the conservation, protection and recovery of marine biodiversity. There have been a number of very significant developments over recent years, which demonstrate Ireland’s commitment to the sustainable development of our maritime area. The National Marine Planning Framework (NMPF) provides for long-term forward planning for Ireland's maritime area and will enhance the effective management of marine activities and more sustainable use of our marine resources. The Maritime Area Planning (MAP) Act 2021, as amended, provides the legal underpinning to an entirely new marine planning system, which will balance harnessing our huge offshore wind potential with protecting our rich and unique marine environment. Enactment of the MAP Act has delivered a new legislative basis, allowing, for the first time, for the regulation of Ireland’s maritime area usage outside the 12 nautical mile coastal one. The comprehensive and coherent marine planning regime in the MAP Act provides clarity to developers on the offshore wind consenting system for developments in our maritime area. Removing barriers in the permitting and consenting process, while ensuring a more facilitative and supportive planning framework, is essential to achieving our green transition as quickly as possible. Marineplan.ie has been developed to assist decision makers in making evidence-based decisions with a graphical representation of relevant activities in the marine space. 71 9. The Circular and Bioeconomy Technological developments alone will not get Ireland to achieve climate neutrality, it will be important for us change our patterns of consumption and to greatly reduce the amount of waste we produce as an economy. Driving demand reduction, through developing the circular economy and bioeconomy, could decrease the cost of achieving climate neutrality and deliver additional economic value. The circular economy offers an alternative to today’s linear (‘take-make-waste’) model of production and consumption, in which we extract great quantities of natural resources to make things that we may use only once before throwing them away. In the circular economy, resources are kept in use for as long as possible, the maximum value is extracted from them while in use before residual resources are then recovered and regenerated into new products and materials at the end of each lifecycle. The circular economy is, therefore, an inherently regenerative system, which minimises or avoids the emissions and other negative environmental impacts associated, by replacing a linear lifespan with a closed loop for materials. The bioeconomy is a component of the circular economy and relates to the production of renewable biological resources and the conversion of these resources and waste streams into value added products, such as food, and bio-energy. It cuts across a range of sectors, including agriculture, the marine, forestry, water and waste management, energy, as well as biopharmaceuticals. The Government’s vision for the bioeconomy, as set out in the National Policy Statement on the Bioeconomy, is to grow Ireland’s ambition to be a global leader for the bioeconomy through a coordinated approach that harnesses Ireland’s natural resources and competitive advantage, and that fully exploits the opportunities available while monitoring and avoiding unintended consequences. The bio-economy is based on four principles which combine to achieve emissions reduction while creating value; demand reduction; design out waste and pollution; keep products and materials in use; and regenerate natural systems. The four guiding principles underlying the bioeconomy are the: • Sustainability Principle: environmental sustainability is an integral, core principle of the bioeconomy and products developed must be sustainable; 72 • Cascading Principle: whereby higher value applications are preferentially derived from biological resources which will allow us to derive the maximum value from our bioresources; • Precautionary Principle: is a risk management approach to prevent policies or actions causing harm to the public or the environment; • Food First Principle: gives priority to food and nutrition security by improving the availability of and access to a safe and healthy food supply for citizens. A circular and bio-economy maximises the value and benefits from a limited set of resources and reduces demand for new materials through replacing the ‘end-of-life’ concept with restoration and recycling and aiming for the elimination of waste through the superior design of materials, products, systems, and business models. Circular and bioeconomy initiatives are an additional source of CO2 emissions abatement in the most challenging sectors. Further, the associated demand reduction for imported goods will help decrease emissions more globally and the new green economy will save money and create new jobs. Achieving this circular transition will require significant levels of innovation in relation to the design of both production and business models. State of Play The circularity rate indicates the share of material which is recovered and fed back into an economy. Ireland currently has a circularity rate of 1.6%, some way behind the EU average of 12.8%. Improving this rate will yield savings not only in tonnes of materials wasted, but also in carbon emitted. In 2018, waste accounted for 1.5% of Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions – approximately 0.91 MtCO2eq. This figure accounts for emissions from waste treatment that are reported under the waste sector (predominantly methane emissions as a result of disposal to landfill). The gains in reducing material use, and substituting virgin material with recycled material, will be credited back up the supply chain. Minimising waste generation, and improving segregation, reuse and recycling, will lead to less emissions associated with waste transport and treatment. Waste emissions per head are lower in Ireland compared to the EU average. Emissions have fallen since 2005, but not as much as in other Member States or compared to the EU average. Ireland has made significant progress in managing waste streams, particularly in improving recycling rates and diversion from landfill. Ambitious targets have been adopted for 2030. 73 Pathway to 2030 Ireland’s short-/medium-term waste and circular economy strategy is outlined in successive Climate Action Plans , the Whole of Government Circular Economy Strategy 2022 – 2023 and Waste Action Plan for a Circular Economy (2020 – 2025). The Circular Economy and Miscellaneous Provisions Act 2022 placed the Circular Economy Strategy on a statutory footing, making the ongoing development of circular economy policy a legal requirement of Government. The circular economy strategy commits to support and implement measures that significantly reduce Ireland’s circularity gap, in both absolute terms and in comparison, with other EU Member States, so that Ireland’s rate is above the EU average by 2030, with measures to address facets of sustainable production and consumption most impactful in an Irish context. The sector emissions ceiling for ‘Other’, which includes waste, commits to a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, and a 50% reduction by 2030 relative to 2018 levels. Additionally, the plan commits to recycling 70% of packaging by 2030, recycling 55% of plastic waste by 2030, reducing food waste by 50% by 2030, provide for 90% collection of plastic drinks containers by 2029, and further to ensure all plastic packaging is reusable or recyclable by 2030. Pathway to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Achieving additional abatement can become increasingly challenging and increasingly costly meaning that a developed circular and bio-economy can play a significant role in supporting the transition to climate neutrality from 2030. The circular economy is projected to create 700,000 additional jobs across Europe and provide a EUR 1.8 trillion annual benefit. Previous modelling suggested that developing the circular economy could lead to a 5% – 10% reduction in CO2 emissions relative to 2030, an approximate 3.2 MtCO2eq. reduction in emissions included in the national inventory. However, the 2021 Climate Act and subsequent Climate Action Plans mandate an acceleration in the level of emissions reductions to be achieved in this decade and as a result, require a corresponding front-loading of the implementation of abatement measures – including circular economy, bioeconomy and waste-reduction measures. This means that emissions reductions will differ to that previously modelled, with greater abatement in the period to 2030 and slightly less abatement in the period from 2030 to 2050. In any case, it is clear that the circular and bioeconomy provides significant emissions reductions potential as we strive for climate neutrality by 2050. 74 Outside of Ireland, there is also potential emissions abatement that could be achieved due to reduced demand for imports. The circular economy strategy must consider the longer term, end-of-life materials to be dealt with as part of the shift to zero-emissions. The figure below outlines a number of these areas where the transition to zero emissions energy has consequences that the design of a circular economy must take into account and address. Figure 9.1 Circular economy considerations for longer term, end-of-life materials to be dealt with as part of the shift to zero-emissions 75 10. Adaptation to Climate Change Climate Change Impacts International Context The State of the Climate in Europe 2022 report was produced jointly by the World Meteorological Organi ation and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service and launched in Dublin in June 2023 during the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA 2023) It shows how Europe has been warming twice as much as the global average since the 1980s, with far-reaching impacts on the region’s socio-economic fabric and ecosystems. In 2022, Europe was approximately 2.3 °C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) average used as a baseline for the Paris Agreement on climate change. The report notes that 2022 was another year of warming in Europe. Climate indicators showed the continued effect of human induced climate change on the atmosphere, land, sea and cryosphere. The combination of exceptionally high temperatures in summer and severe drought had a significant impact on people and ecosystems, with more than 15000 excess deaths, drying rivers, record melting glaciers and devastating wildfires. 2023 was confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to 1850. 2023 had a global average temperature of 14.98°C, 0.17°C higher than the previous highest annual value in 2016 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I and II Reports, which are part of IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6), have increased our understanding of the impacts of climate change at global and regional levels. The Working Group I Report states that the scale of recent changes across the climate system, and the present state of many aspects of it, are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years. It further states that it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and that widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred. The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850 to 1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming. 76 It projects that global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded this century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other GHG emissions occur in the coming decades. The Working Group I Report29 makes several high-level projections for Europe as a whole, and of more specific relevance in the Irish context. Further projections are made for the Northern Europe region. The report projects that there will be: • An observed increase in pluvial flooding attributed to human influence and projected further increase at global warming of 1.5°C (medium confidence) and 2°C and above (high confidence). • A projected increase in severe windstorms at global warming of 2°C and above (medium confidence). The IPCC Working Group II Report30, published in February 2022, assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels, and is more relevant to reviewing vulnerabilities, and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change. The report finds that climate change, and the related increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related loss and damage to both nature and people. It further finds that the impacts and risks of climate change are becoming more complex and increasingly difficult to manage. Interaction between multiple climatic and non-climatic hazards will result in compounding overall risk, and risks cascading across sectors and regions. The report highlights the urgency of immediate and far-reaching climate action, finding that near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected loss and damage related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems (compared to higher warming levels). However, it cannot eliminate them all. The report states that economic damage from climate change has been detected in climate exposed sectors, with regional effects on agriculture, forestry, fishing, energy, and tourism. It further states that key infrastructure, including sanitation, water, health, transport, 29 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 30 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 77 communications, and energy, will be increasingly vulnerable if design standards do not account for changing climate conditions. In addition, it states that biodiversity loss and degradation, and damage to and transformation of ecosystems, are already key risks for every region due to past global warming and will continue to escalate with every increment of temperature increase. It does, however, also conclude that the scale and scope of actions to reduce climate risks have increased worldwide, while individuals and households, along with communities, businesses, religious groups, and social movements, have begun to adapt already. The report finds that climate change risks and impacts can be reduced, within limits, if humans and nature adapt to the changing conditions. EU Context Forging a climate-resilient Europe – the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, was published in February 2021 in recognition of adaptation as a crucial component of the long term global response to climate change. The strategy identifies that the frequency and severity of climate and weather extremes across the EU is increasing. This has caused a surge in the frequency and severity of disasters over the last two decades. The strategy aims to increase and accelerate the EU’s efforts to protect nature, people and livelihoods against the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Building on the work already carried out as a result of the 2013 EU Adaptation Strategy, the new Strategy outlines a long-term vision of creating a climate resilient EU by 2050 by making adaptation smarter, more systemic and swifter, and by stepping up international action. The EU’s first Climate Change Risk Assessment was published in March 2024. A Risk Data Hub is in place, and the EU Mission on Adaptation under the Horizon Europe Programme, which aims to support at least 150 European regions and communities to move towards climate resilience by 2030 has, to date, welcomed the signatures of 308 regions and local authorities who have signed up to the Mission Charter under the EU Mission for Adaptation to Climate Change. This includes 7 local authorities in Ireland. Louth, Mayo, Offaly and Sligo County Councils as well as Cork, Dublin and Galway City Councils have signed the mission charter and pledged to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. This entitles them to expert advice and guidance through the Mission Implementation Platform and to access funding for innovation activities and pilot projects. Irish adaptation policy will continue the process of aligning, where possible, with EU climate adaptation policy and priorities and also utilise developments in EU adaptation policy, https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/tools/risk-data-hub https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/tools/risk-data-hub https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/funding/funding-opportunities/funding-programmes-and-open-calls/horizon-europe/eu-missions-horizon-europe/adaptation-climate-change en https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/funding/funding-opportunities/funding-programmes-and-open-calls/horizon-europe/eu-missions-horizon-europe/adaptation-climate-change en https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/mission/ 78 including the EU Climate Risk Assessment, EU Climate Adaptation Indicators and the EU Climate Adaptation Mission to increase climate resilience at national level. Irish Context Observations show that Ireland’s climate is changing at a scale and rate of change consistent with regional and global trends. The most immediate risks to Ireland are predominantly those associated with changes in extremes, such as floods, precipitation and storms. Climate change is expected to have diverse and wide-ranging impacts on Ireland’s environment, society and economic development, including on managed and natural ecosystems, water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, and coastal zones. The most immediate risks to Ireland which can be influenced by climate change are predominantly those associated with changes in extremes, including floods, droughts and storms. For Ireland, climate change impacts are projected to increase in the coming decades and could include the following: • sea level rise; • more intense storms and rainfall events; • increased likelihood and magnitude of river and coastal flooding; • water shortages in summer; • increased risk of new pests and diseases; • adverse impacts on water quality; and • changes in distribution and phenology (the timing of lifecycle events) of plant and animal species on land and in the oceans. In 2021, the second The Status of Ireland’s Climate report, commissioned by Global Climate Observing System Ireland, funded by the EPA, the Marine Institute and Met Éireann and taking new data, analyses, and knowledge into account, was published. This report provides an updated picture of developing trends in Ireland’s climate and also how Ireland is being impacted by climate change. Trends in temperature and precipitation records as well as those relating to sea level measurements and ecosystem decline are a cause for concern: • Temperature: Average temperatures have increased by 0.9°C since 1900, with a rise in temperatures being observed in all seasons. This compares with a global average temperature estimated to be 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels. The number of warm spell days has increased slightly over the last 60 years, with very little 79 change in cold spell duration. This is in line with what has been observed in many regions of the world; • Precipitation: Average annual national rainfall has increased by approximately 6% in the period 1989-2018, compared to the period 1961-1990; the largest increases are observed over the west of the country; • Sea level rise: Satellite observations indicate that the sea level around Ireland has risen by approximately 2–3mm per year since the early 1990s, and analysis of sea level data from Dublin Bay show a rise of approximately 1.7mm per year since 1938, consistent with global average rates; • Sea surface temperature: The average sea surface temperature measured at Malin Head was 0.47°C higher over the last 10 years compared with the period 1981– 2010. Climate Change Impacts Towards 2050 While uncertainty remains regarding the impacts of changing climate towards 2050, trends in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise are expected to continue, with impacts affecting the whole of Irish society and the economy: • Temperature: Projections indicate an increase in average temperatures across all seasons (1-1.6°C). The number of warm days is expected to increase and heat waves are expected to occur more frequently. Incidences of cold stress are likely to decrease while incidences of heat stress will increase. The duration of the growing season will increase, starting earlier and extending later. • Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to become more variable, with substantial projected increases in the occurrence of both dry periods and heavy precipitation events. Significant reductions are expected in average annual, spring and summer rainfall. The increased occurrence of dry spells will result in increased pressure on water supply. Projections indicate a substantial increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in winter and autumn (approx. 21% - 31%), which will result in increased fluvial and pluvial flood risk. • Wind speed: Projections indicate an overall decrease in wind speed and an increase in extreme wind speeds, particularly during winter. Increases in extreme wind speeds may impact on wind turbines and the continuity of power supply. • Sea level rise: Sea levels will continue to rise for all coastal areas, by up to 0.84m by 2100. The south of Ireland will likely feel the impacts of these rises first. 80% of the damage associated with sea level rise for Ireland is expected by 2050. There will be 80 a significant increase in areas at risk of coastal inundation and erosion, and increased risk to coastal aquifers and water supply. • Sea surface temperature: Sea surface temperatures are projected to continue warming. Projected changes for the Irish Sea indicate a warming for all seasons with the highest warming in Autumn and the lowest in Spring, however, projected changes remain uncertain. This will result in a change in distribution of fish species, with implications for fisheries and aquaculture industries. Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment (ICCA), published in January 2024 by the EPA, is the first full comprehensive assessment of climate change in Ireland. It addresses Climate Tipping Points as ‘Low-Likelihood igh Impact’ outcomes. ICCA indicates that Climate Tipping Points that shift the global climate or alter the regional climate in the North Atlantic and north-western Europe would have implications for Ireland. For Ireland the stability of the North Atlantic Ocean is a determinant of our climate and agricultural productivity. The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the most immediate potential tipping point. It is considered that the AMOC will almost certainly weaken over the 21st century, and a full collapse cannot be ruled out. This would have profound implications for the Irish climate and society as a result of considerably colder winters and warmer summers, and a likely increase in storminess and potential implications for sea levels. Projections of global sea level rise past 2100 have large uncertainties and will be determined by the effectiveness of global climate policy. Much of the uncertainty is related to the stability of major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Their loss may become inevitable at certain levels of global warming. The loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could result in several metres of sea level rise over time. Currently, thawing permafrost is losing carbon to the atmosphere. Model projections and paleoclimate evidence indicates that as the global climate warms, permafrost extent and volume will shrink, releasing further greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Complete thawing of permafrost cannot be ruled out, and this would emit more carbon than humans have emitted to date into the atmosphere, leading to substantial additional warming. The apparent acceleration of global warming and increased ocean temperatures has resulted in considerable focus on climate change impacts. Recent high-profile research 81 publications31 have suggested that the AMOC may collapse abruptly during this century. These and other developments as well as the high level of scientific uncertainty around Climate Tipping Points highlight the need for targeted and managed research to inform accelerated policy development and implementation. Climate Data and Information Improved information and more detailed and reliable climate projections are required to understand the impacts of climate change and to build resilience towards 2050. While International and European level climate reports and projections provide us with very useful data on the likely impacts of climate change, it is extremely important that Ireland continues to build our understanding of the impacts of climate change at both national and local levels to support adaptation decision making. Observations show that Ireland’s climate is changing in terms of coastline, sea level rise, increases in average temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, and weather extremes. Satellite observations indicate that the sea level around Ireland has risen by approximately 2 to 3mm a year since the early 1990s. There is evidence of an increase in river flows across the country between 1972 and 2017. However, there is also evidence in recent years of an increase in the frequency and intensity of potential drought conditions, especially in the east of Ireland. Temperatures in Ireland have increased by about 0.9°C during the period 1900 to 2019, or an average of about 0.075°C per decade. Fifteen of the top twenty warmest years on record have occurred since 1990. The overall temperature trend is upwards and consistent with global patterns of change. Climate projections work in Ireland date back to 2003 when Met Éireann established a project called the Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland and applied regional climate models (RCMs), structurally very similar to the models used for numerical weather prediction, to simulate the future climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution for the first time. Since then, more climate projections for Ireland have been produced. For example, Met Éireann is a core member of the “EC-Earth” international climate modelling consortium working with leading experts from 12 European countries to develop Global Climate Models and run state-of-the-art climate projections. A large ensemble of global EC-Earth atmosphere-ocean simulations has recently been completed as part of the IPCC’s 6th Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) which informed the IPCC’s AR6 31 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 82 report. These simulations consist of 5 historical (1850-2014) and 20 future scenario simulations (2015-2100) covering the full range of IPCC scenarios. A range of atmosphere-only RCMs (such as HCLIM, WRF and COSMO) and coupled atmosphere-ocean RCMs (such as COAWST) are currently being employed by Met Éireann and Irish Centre for High-End Computing to downscale EC-Earth’s CMIP6 outputs to domains over the North Atlantic and Ireland. This work is co-funded by the EPA, the Marine Institute and Met Éireann and once completed, will be used to update the current set of high resolution 21st century climate projections for Ireland. This work will be crucial in updating our current understanding of the observed and future impacts of climate change in Ireland. Research will also be required to better understand the implications of climate change on areas such as health risks, and how best to build resilience. Another requirement is access to information presented in an accessible form by policy makers, particularly those producing sectoral or local adaptation plans or required to account for climate risks. The provision of accurate and authoritative information and expertise is a crucial element in ensuring that Government, Local Authorities, communities and the private sector can plan ahead and respond effectively to the challenges of climate change. Met Éireann is implementing, with its partners, a National Framework for Climate Services to coordinate the provision of climate services in Ireland in support of climate action decision making. A key output of the National Framework for Climate Services in 2023 was the TRANSLATE project which provides the first standardised and bias-corrected national climate projections for Ireland and allows practitioners to view how Ireland’s climate could change if global temperatures increase to 1.5˚C ,2˚C, 2.5˚C, 3˚C or 4˚C. This is important to ensure that adaptation practitioners in Ireland can work off a common understanding of the future climate, that is peer reviewed and based on the best available science. Ireland’s Climate Information Platform, Climate Ireland, was developed on a phased basis under the EPA Research Programme as a "one-stop shop" of information, data and knowledge to support those preparing for, and adapting to, the consequences of climate change. The platform provides a central source of climate data for Ireland, combining authoritative information from a variety of sources such as Met Éireann, OPW, EPA, the European Environmental Agency and the IPCC to assist a variety of stakeholders in planning ahead for the likely impacts of climate change. Climate Ireland was designed and developed by the Centre for Marine and Renewable Energy (MaREI) at University College Cork (UCC) and the Irish Centre for High End Computer (ICHEC) at the National University 83 of Ireland, Galway and as part of the EPA-funded project A Climate Information Platform for Ireland (ICIP). The EPA will continue the development of Climate Ireland as a key priority. Successive Climate Action Plans implement measures to deliver Climate Ireland as the national platform for data, information and decision supports on climate impacts and adaptation. It is important that security of the resource in the long-term is ensured, to allow for the broader and more in-depth planning required towards 2050. The EPA is progressing the first semi-quantitative National Climate Change Risk Assessment through 2024, to identify and prioritise risks at a national level and to ensure that risk information underpinning the second iteration of Sectoral Adaptation Plans is robust and fit for purpose. It is hoped to align this output with the forthcoming EU Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA). Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment (ICCA) which was also produced by EPA for the first time provides a comprehensive and authoritative assessment of the state of knowledge around all key aspects of climate change, with a central focus on Ireland. Volume 3 of ICCA covers the impacts we are likely to face and how we can prepare for these changes in an Irish context. It incorporates the latest projections from Ireland-specific climate modelling initiatives from ICHEC and Met Éireann. As well as impact modelling and social research into community resilience and wellbeing. The report covers a range of sectors, including biodiversity, critical infrastructure, health, and the co-dependencies between them. It looks at a broad spectrum of research undertaken in Ireland on climate impacts, while also covering best practices in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. The report provides knowledge on the following: • Research and policy gaps in Ireland. • On cross-cutting issues and concepts framing adaptation in Ireland. • On the practical steps required to build community involvement and participation to deliver a more climate resilient Ireland. 84 National Adaptation Policy Ireland’s first statutory National Adaptation Framework (NAF, 2018)32 represents Ireland’s primary national policy response to the challenges posed by the impacts of climate change. The NAF was prepared under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015. It set out the national strategy for the application of adaptation measures in different sectors and by Local Authorities in their administrative areas in order to reduce the vulnerability of the State to the negative effects of climate change and to avail of any positive impacts that may occur. The NAF identified 12 key sectors requiring sectoral adaptation plans. These plans were approved by Government and published in October 2019. The sectoral adaptation plans are grouped under four themes as set out in the following table. Table 10.1 Sectoral Adaptation Plans Theme Sector Level Lead Department for Sectoral Adaptation Plans Natural and Cultural Capital Seafood Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine Agriculture Forestry Biodiversity Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage Built and Archaeological Heritage Critical Infrastructure Transport Infrastructure Department of Transport Electricity and Gas Networks Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications Communications Networks Water Resource and Flood Risk Management Flood Risk Management Office of Public Works Water Quality Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage Water Services Infrastructure Public Health Health Department of Health The plans were developed in line with the Sectoral Planning Guidelines for Climate Change Adaptation, which were published in 2018, ensuring that a consistent and coherent process was followed across all sectors in their development. The plans describe and assess the 32 DCCAE/National Adaptation Framework https://dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/climate-action/publications/Documents/10/FINAL%20National%20Adaptation%20Framework-Planning%20for%20a%20Climate%20Resilient%20Ireland.pdf 85 extent of the risks presented by climate change to the sector, and present contingency plans to address these risks and build climate resilience. They include actions to mainstream adaptation into policy and administration, as well as actions to improve cooperation and coherence across other sectors and with the local government sector. All the sectoral adaptation plans have been published on www.gov.ie. National adaptation measures are also included in annual Climate Action Plans. National Adaptation Framework The NAF clearly identifies the critical role to be played by Local Authorities in building climate resilience. In 2019, Local Adaptation Strategies were developed by all 31 Local Authorities in Ireland in line with Government guidance. Four, Government-funded, Local Authority Climate Action Regional Offices (CAROs) supported the preparation of the strategies, driving climate action at Local Authority level and ensuring consistency in the development of each strategy. Building on their success, the CAROs now provide enhanced support to Local Authorities covering mitigation and citizen engagement along with adaptation. They will also have a key role in the development of the adaptation requirements of Local Authority Climate Action Plans which are now required to be prepared under climate legislation every five years. The new 2024 NAF, in addition to the existing 12 priority sectors, identifies a need for an additional sectoral adaptation plan for the tourism sector under the remit of the Department of Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media. It has also been agreed with the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage that a scoping exercise will be undertaken examining the potential for a built environment and planning sectoral adaptation plan. These two sectors represent key policy areas where climate change is likely to be a significant policy driver over the coming years and decades, and where specific policy interventions will support the implementation of the NAF. http://www.gov.ie/ 86 Table 10.2 Sectoral Adaptation Plans required under the 2024 NAF Theme Sector Level Lead Department for Sectoral Adaptation Plans Cross-cutting Policy Issues Natural Environment Biodiversity Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage Coastal, Built Environment, Urban Environment, Health Impacts, Disaster Risk Reduction Water Quality Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage Built Environment and Infrastructure Communication Networks Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications Electricity and Gas Networks Flood Risk Management Office of Public Works Built Environment and Planning Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage33 Transport Infrastructure Department of Transport Water Services Infrastructure Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage Human Built and Archaeological Heritage Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage Health Department of Health Economy Agriculture Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine Forestry Seafood Tourism Department of Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media Recognising that the process of adapting to climate change is iterative and long-term, Ireland’s National Adaptation Framework considers a set of guiding strategic principles which will inform adaptation planning at sectoral, regional, local and individual levels in Ireland. The following principles summarise the main success factors for adaptation contained within international research aim to inform the approach to be taken in preparing sectoral planning in Ireland: 33 DHLGH is asked to complete scoping exercise prior to committing to the Sectoral Adaptation Plan preparation. 87 • Ownership: a clear commitment at senior levels within relevant organisations to pursuing adaptation from the outset. In the longer term, sufficient personnel and financial resources for adaptation must be made available; • Vulnerability based assessment: each sector and region will begin their adaptation planning with a clear understanding of sensitivities and vulnerabilities to current and future climate change; • Openness and knowledge transfer: sharing best practises in adaptation, improving data collection of adaptation relevant information as well as the communication of this information are all essential for adaptation processes. Scientific information must be presented in a way that is understandable, consistent and meets the requirements of the specific target audience; • Foster cooperation: a working partnership with relevant and affected stakeholders throughout the entire adaptation process is an important prerequisite for successful adaptation. The objectives and the areas of responsibility of the participants must be clearly determined and communicated; • Account for uncertainty: uncertainties are an inherent part of all projections of climate change and its impacts. They will never be fully eliminated but adaptation measures will be required, nonetheless. A precautionary approach to adaptation should be adopted. Appropriately, accounting for uncertainty can improve adaptation decisions by making them more robust in the face of uncertainties; • Climate Scenarios: when prioritising climate change impacts at regional and local levels, both past weather events and scenarios of possible future climatic and socio economic changes should be analysed. In order to understand the uncertainty in the potential impacts of climate change, a range of scenarios should always be drawn upon for the estimation of climate trends; • Identify a wide range of adaptation options: a comprehensive range of adaptation options should be considered at the outset (green, grey and soft). The available options should be described in as much detail as is reasonably possible in terms of their objectives and direct and indirect effects; • Prioritise adaptation actions: it will not be practical to undertake all adaptation options identified. Implementation of adaptation actions must be prioritised according to relevant criteria such as efficiency, cost-effectiveness, risk and urgency and ensuring a just transition. The Local Authority and Sectoral Adaptation Guidelines discuss how to both prioritise climate risks at the appropriate scales and, following this, how identified adaptation options should be prioritised for implementation; 88 • Monitoring progress: it will be necessary to establish appropriate monitoring mechanisms and indicators so as to ensure the effectiveness of sector-specific adaptation responses. Such mechanisms will also ensure efficient use of resources while allowing flexibility to how plans are implemented. In addition to these high-level guiding principles, Ireland will also implement adaptation policies in line with the additional principles below which have gained in prominence since the publication of the NAF in 2018. Considering adaptation in parallel with sustainable development The NAF recognises the international policy context relevant to Ireland’s climate action commitments including the EU Adaptation Strategy, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13: Climate Action. Equally, climate adaptation is fully considered within Ireland’s SDG Implementation Plan. Ireland will continue to ensure alignment between its adaptation policies and the SDGs. Aligning Climate Adaptation and Mitigation The Paris Agreement includes a long-term adaptation goal alongside the goal for mitigation. This connection makes it clear that, if mitigation activities succeed in limiting the rise in global temperature, less adaptation will be needed to deal with the consequences of climate change. Accordingly, the NAF has regard to on-going mitigation actions to limit temperature increases, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Mitigation actions also have the potential to deliver adaptation co-benefits (e.g. rewetting of peatlands, rewilding, vegetation coverage, sustainable planning policies, etc.). It is equally important that mitigation policies minimise maladaptation and that they account for a changing climate (i.e. in building standards, planning policy, etc.). Future iterations of adaptation policy will give greater consideration to how adaptation policy can best support mitigation policy and maximise co-benefits while minimising maladaptation. More emphasis on ‘transformational’ adaptation as a complement to ‘incremental’ adaptation Transformational adaptation, according to the IPCC34 "seeks to change the fundamental attributes of systems in response to actual or expected climate and its effects, often at a 34 IPCC 2014 AR5, Chapter 14: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap14 FINAL.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap14 FINAL.pdf 89 scale and ambition greater than incremental activities. Scheduled reviews of climate change adaptation policy in Ireland, including the review of the National Adaptation Framework in 2022, have provided opportunities to examine the need to more towards transformational adaptation measures as adaptation policy in Ireland is implemented over time and as the scale of the impacts of climate change become clearer. Public consultation and engagement The NDCA facilitates the changing of perceptions around climate change, including adaptation. Public consultation and public engagement will remain a central part of adaptation policy in Ireland. Climate Conversations 2022 surveyed the Irish public specifically on adaptation measures. The responses show that extreme weather events (87%), river and coastal flooding (73%) and pressure on food production (71%) are the top three impacts that people in Ireland associate with climate change. In terms of adaptation measures, 96% of people thought restoring natural habitats was an important aspect of climate change adaptation. Ensuring that planning law supports sustainability (92%); education and training (93%); and putting climate change at the centre of all Government policy (89%); were also seen by approximately nine in ten people as important adaptation responses. Just Transition The Climate Action Plan commits to delivering a just transition, recognising the significant level of change required and that the burden must be as fairly distributed as possible. De carbonising the economy presents significant challenges but also brings important opportunities to respond and create learning on how best to deliver a just transition. Work to date on implementing a just transition has largely focused on mitigation. The concept of just resilience has emerged at international level but has yet to be clearly defined. It is likely to emerge as an important issue in adaptation policy in the future. Irish adaptation policy will examine the just transition in the context of adaptation and to see how adaptation policy can assist in bringing greater clarity to this concept. Continuous review and Updating of National Adaptation Policy Towards 2050 In Ireland national adaptation planning centres on the implementation of National Adaptation Frameworks and Sectoral Adaptation Plans (which are required to be reviewed regularly in line with the requirements of the Climate Act). Monitoring, review, and evaluation are important aspects of such iterative adaptation planning. Ireland continues to provide detailed https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/ccb2e0-the-climate-action-plan-2019/ 90 reports on climate adaptation to the European Commission in line with requirements of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. The review of National Adaptation Frameworks and Sectoral Adaptation Plans allows the latest science and assessment of climate change impacts to be considered, and adaptation policy and planning can be refocussed accordingly. Adaptation policy in Ireland is also subject to review and comment by the independent Climate Change Advisory Council. Cross-sectoral challenges still exist, and solutions to developing climate resilience will be further assessed bilaterally and via the National Adaptation Steering Committee as plans are implemented and further developed. By 2050, the NAF, Sectoral Adaptation Plans, and Local Adaptation Strategies will all be in their 7th iteration, allowing considerable review and adjustment to ensure the development of resilience across society and the economy. In addition to refinement of plans in further iterations, it is expected that sectoral planning will have been broadened to additional sectors and cover additional priorities by 2050. Adaptation planning and actions will have been mainstreamed across policy development in all relevant sectors. It is envisaged that this mainstreaming process will ensure that in future climate change impacts will be taken into consideration strategically across housing and planning, emergency management, and the financial sector which are not currently required to develop sectoral adaptation plans. Prioritisation will also be addressed in further iterations of the plans and strategies, and the development of a national climate change risk assessment will be completed by 2025. Adaptation planning guidelines will be revised and updated over time, using learnings from the recent cycle of planning, EU best practise and allowing flexibility for the different requirements of diverse sectors. Finally, Ireland is committed to supporting the implementation of the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change which, in time, will provide further guidance on many aspects of Climate Adaptation, including risk prevention and preparedness, which will be taken into account in future adaptation planning in Ireland.