Fiji Low Emission Development Strategy 2018-2050

1.1 A Mid-Century Low Emission Development Strategy for Fiji 20 4.3.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework 95

1.2 Fiji’s Vision 20 4.3.4 Methodology 97

1.3 The Approach to Fiji’s LEDS 21 4.3.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios 100

1.4 Why a LEDS? 22 4.3.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High Level Costing 107

1.5 Process for Developing Fiji’s LEDS 22 4.4 Domestic Air Transport 109

1.6 Overview of the Fiji LEDS Document 24 4.4.1 Overview 109

4.4.2 Emission Sources 109 2 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 25

4.4.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework 110

2.1 National Context 26

4.4.4 Methodology 111

2.2 A Warming Planet 26

4.4.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios 111

2.3 International Action to Address Climate Change 29

4.4.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High-Level Costing 116

2.4 Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals 29

4.5 AFOLU 118

2.5 Climate Action in the Pacific Region and with SIDS 30

4.5.1 Overview 118

2.6 Fiji’s Legal and Institutional Frameworks 30

4.5.2 Emission Sources 119 3 PATHWAYS TOWARDS LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP 33 4.5.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework 123 DECARBONISATION IN FIJI 4.5.4 Methodology 124

3.1 Fiji’s Economic and Social Priorities and Trends to 2050 34 4.5.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios 128

3.2 Economy-wide LEDS Pathways 35 4.5.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High-Level Costing 138

4.6 Coastal Wetlands 141 4 SECTOR-SPECIFIC TARGETS AND MEASURES 40

4.6.1 Overview 141

4.1 Electricity and Other Energy Generation and Use 41

4.6.2 Emission Sources 142

4.1.1 Overview 41

4.6.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework 143

4.1.2 Emission Sources 44

4.6.4 Methodology 145

4.1.3 Existing Policy, Institutional, and Regulatory Framework 45

4.6.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios 149

4.1.4 Methodology 45

4.6.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High-Level Costing 154

4.1.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios 51

4.7 Waste Sector 156

4.2 Land Transport 75

4.7.1 Overview 156

4.2.1 Overview 75

4.7.2 Emission Sources 156

4.2.2 Emission Sources 76

4.7.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework 158

4.2.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework 77

4.7.4 Methodology 158

4.2.4 Methodology 77

4.7.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios 161

4.2.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios 79

4.7.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High-Level Costing 167

4.2.6 Policy Recommendations,Priority Actions, and High Level Costing 88 8 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 9

4.8 Cross-Cutting Sectors: Tourism, Commercial, and Industrial and Manufacturing Sectors 170 8 GOV ER N AN C E AN D M O N I TO R IN G AN D EVAL UATIO N 207

4.8.1 Stakeholder Consultation Process 170 8.1 Institutional Arrangements and Governance for Implementing Fiji’s LEDS 208

4.8.2 Tourism Sector 170 8.1.1 The National Climate Change Coordination Committee 208

4.8.3 Commercial, Industrial, and Manufacturing Sectors 179 8.1.2 Cabinet Committee on Climate and Disaster Risk 209

8.1.3 The LEDS Steering Committee 209 5 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE 183

8.1.4 Review of the LEDS 209 5 Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience 184

8.1.5 The Climate Change and International Cooperation Division, Ministry of Economy 210

5.1 National Context – Climate Risk in Fiji 184

8.1.6 Sector and Ministry-Based Climate Change Focal Points 210

5.2 Climate Vulnerability Framework 185

8.1.7 Private Sector Advisory Board 210

5.3 NAP Framework and NAP 185

8.1.8 Local and Sub-national Government 211

5.4 Mainstreaming Climate Resilience into Climate Mitigation Actions 186

8.1.9 Legislation and Standards of Compliance 211

5.5 Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation Actions in this LEDS 186

8.2 Framework for Monitoring and Evaluation of the LEDS 212

5.5.1 Infrastructure: Electricity and Other Energy Generation and Use 187

8.2.1 Monitoring and Evaluation Framework 212

5.5.2 Infrastructure: Land, Maritime, and Air Transport 188

8.2.2 General Evaluation Questions and Principles for Indicators 214

5.5.3 Infrastructure: Waste (including Water and Sanitation) 188

8.2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation Reporting Responsibilities 214

5.5.4 Food Security: Agriculture 189

8.2.4 Strengthening of Data and MRV systems 215

5.5.5 Biodiversity: Forestry (including Plantation Forests) and Coastal Wetlands 189

5.5.6 Cross-Cutting Sectors: Tourism 190 ANNEX A. LIST OF PRIORITISED ACTIONS, WITH HIGH-LEVEL COSTING AND TIMELINE 217 Annex A. List of Prioritised Actions, with High-Level Costing and Timeline 218 6 S O C I A L , E CO N O MIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS 19 1

6.1 Green Jobs and Employment 192 REFERENCES 227

6.1.1 Introduction 192 References 228

6.1.2 Methodology 192 Photo Credits 233

6.1.3 Green Jobs Baseline for Fiji 193

6.1.4 Future Green Jobs in Fiji under LEDS Deep Decarbonisation Pathways 194

6.1.5 Measures and Policies for Green Jobs 195

6.2 Gender and Equity 195

6.3 Green City Development 198

6.4 Biodiversity Conservation 198 7 EDUCATION, CAPACITY BUILDING AND AWARENESS RAISING 200 7 Education, Capacity Building, and Awareness Raising 201

7.1 Introduction 201

7.2 Capacity Building and Awareness Raising 201

7.3 Education 205 10 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 11 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 36. Very High Ambition scenario – Land Transport. Figure 37. Electricity Demand of Very High Ambition scenario for Mobility. 86 87 Figure 1. Total Net Emissions for Fiji under the four LEDS scenarios 5 Figure 38. Comparison of scenarios – Land Transport. 87 Figure 2. Cumulative Emissions of CO2 and future non-CO2 radiative forcing determine the probability of 27 Figure 39. Contribution of Mitigation Actions to GHG Emissions Reduction in the Land Transport Sector. 88 limiting 27 warming to 1.5°C. Figure 40. Estimated 2016 Fiji maritime emissions. 94 Figure 3. How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated with Reasons for Concern 28 and selected natural, managed, and human systems at a Global Scale for Increasing Levels of Figure 41. Potential fuel mix changes in international shipping in line with 50% decarbonisation target. 96 Climate Change. Figure 42. BAU Unconditional scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. 102 Figure 4. BAU Unconditional scenario. 37 Figure 43. BAU Conditional scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. 103 Figure 5. BAU Conditional scenario. 38 Figure 44. High Ambition scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. 104 Figure 6. High Ambition scenario. 38 Figure 45. Very High Ambition scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. 106 Figure 7. Very High Ambition scenario. 39 Figure 46. Comparison of scenarios – Domestic Maritime Transport. 106 Figure 8. Electricity generation by source. 42 Figure 47. BAU Unconditional scenario – Domestic Air Transport. 112 Figure 9. Fiji’s NDC emission reduction targets. 43 Figure 48. BAU Conditional scenario – Domestic Air Transport. 113 Figure 10. Electricity providers to households. 44 Figure 49. High Ambition scenario – Domestic Air Transport. 114 Figure 11. Energy Demand in GWh: Unconditional scenario. 52 Figure 50. Very High Ambition scenario – Domestic Air Transport. 115 Figure 12. Grid Electricity Generation in GWh: Unconditional scenario. 53 Figure 51. Comparison of scenarios – Domestic Air Transport. 116 Figure 13. Unconditional scenario capacity added in MW. 54 Figure 52. Annual removals and emissions in Fiji’s forest sector. 120 Figure 14. Unconditional scenario – Electricity and Other Energy. 56 Figure 53. Emissions for different areas of the agricultural sector. 121 Figure 15. Demand (GWh) under Conditional scenario. 57 Figure 54. Annual GHG emissions from agriculture as reported by FAOSTAT and the Fiji TNC. 122 Figure 16. Generation Technologies in GWh under Conditional scenario. 57 Figure 55. BAU Unconditional scenario – AFOLU. 131 Figure 17. Conditional scenario capacity added in MW. 58 Figure 56. BAU Conditional scenario – AFOLU. 133 Figure 19. Demand (GWh) under High Ambition scenario. 61 Figure 57. High Ambition scenario – AFOLU. 135 Figure 20. Generation Technologies in GWh for on-grid generation under High Ambition scenario. 62 Figure 58. Very High Ambition scenario – AFOLU. 137 Figure 21. New capacity added in MW in High Ambition scenario. 62 Figure 59. Comparison of scenarios – AFOLU. 138 Figure 22. High Ambition scenario – Electricity and other Energy. 64 Figure 60. Above-ground and below-ground biomass of three dominant mangrove species in Rewa Delta. 146 Figure 23. Demand (GWh) under Very High Ambition scenario. 65 Figure 61. Results of eleven plots with fixed radius where data on standing tree biomass (live and dead), downed 146 Figure 24. Generation Technologies in GWh for on-grid generation under Very High Ambition scenario. 66 wood (dead wood on the forest floor), and soils at five depth profiles were collected.
 Figure 25. Very High Ambition scenario capacity added 66 Figure 62. Total Ecosystem Carbon pools expressed in CO2 equivalent for the main mangrove types in Rewa delta. 147 Figure 26. Very High Ambition scenario – Electricity and Other Energy. 68 Figure 63. The emissions associated with a gradient of mangrove conversion in Rewa delta. 147 Figure 27. Renewable energy contribution to electricity generation under all four scenarios. 69 Figure 64. Forecasted mangrove area change submitted for Fiji for Global Forest Resources Assessment. 148 Figure 28. Emissions under various scenarios for on-grid electricity generation. 69 Figure 65. BAU Unconditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 150 Figure 29. Cumulative investment costs for on-grid generation capacity addition. 71 Figure 66. BAU Conditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 151 Figure 30. Vehicle Distribution in Fiji, 2017. 75 Figure 67. High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 152 Figure 31. Mode Share of Urban Trips in Fiji, 2015. 76 Figure 68. Very High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 153 Figure 32. Projected Peak Power Demand from Electric Mobility under Very High Ambition scenario. 80 Figure 69. Comparison of scenarios for Coastal Wetlands. 154 Figure 33. BAU Unconditional scenario – Land Transport. 82 Figure 70. A plan showing the duration of different stages of landfill operation and hectares of area required for 157 each stage. Figure 34. BAU Conditional scenario – Land Transport. 83 Figure 71. Percentage contribution from different SWDs to total methane emissions from solid waste. 162 Figure 35. High Ambition scenario – Land Transport. 85 12 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 13 Figure 72. The BAU scenario for SWDs and WWTPs and the total emissions in Tonnes of CO2e for the waste sector. 162 Table 18. BAU Unconditional scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. 101 Figure 73. BAU Conditional scenario – Waste. 164 Table 19. BAU Conditional scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. 103 Figure 74. High Ambition scenario – Waste. 165 Table 20. High Ambition scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. 104 Figure 75. Very High Ambition scenario – Waste. 166 Table 21. Very High Ambition scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. 105 Figure 76. Comparison of scenarios – Waste. 167 Table 22. BAU Unconditional scenario for Domestic Air Transport. 112 Figure 77. Tourist arrival growth rate for Fiji. 171 Table 23. BAU Conditional scenario for Domestic Air Transport. 113 Figure 78. Unconditional scenario electricity generation for off-grid hotels. 175 Table 24. High Ambition scenario for Domestic Air Transport. 114 Figure 79. Conditional scenario electricity generation for off-grid hotels. 176 Table 25. Very High Ambition scenario for Domestic Air Transport. 115 Figure 80. High Ambition scenario for electricity generation for off-grid hotels. 176 Table 26. Emissions from livestock in Gg CO2e. 122 Figure 81. Very High Ambition scenario for electricity generation for off-grid hotels. 177 Table 27. Data sources for the forestry sector. 124 Figure 82. Emissions from Vatukoula Gold Mine generation. 180 Table 28. Rice area, production, and yield during 2010-2015. 126 Figure 83. Total Investment Costs for Energy for Vatukoula Gold Mine. 180 Table 29. N-fertiliser and urea application. 127 Figure 84. Percentage share of tourism in Fiji’s economy, in terms of GDP (left) and employment (right). 190 Table 30. Number of livestock by species. 127 Figure 85. Relationships and governance arrangements associated with key intra-government plans such as 212 Table 31. Emissions and removals of the AFOLU sector. 129 the NCCP, NAP, and LEDS. Table 32. BAU Unconditional scenario for AFOLU. 130 Figure 86. Four dimensions of LEDS monitoring and evaluation. 213 Table 33. BAU Conditional scenario for AFOLU. 132 Figure 87. Steps for setting up and improving an MRV system. 216 Table 34. High Ambition scenario for AFOLU. 134 Table 35. Very High Ambition scenario for AFOLU. 136 TABLES Table 36. Data sources and gaps for Wetlands. 145 Table 37. BAU Unconditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 150 Table 1. Total Net Emissions for Fiji under four LEDS scenarios 5 Table 38. BAU Conditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 151 Table 2. Key Development Goals and Climate Targets in Fiji’s Policies and Strategies. 31 Table 39. High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 152 Table 3. Summary of Low Emission Scenarios for All Sectors 36 Table 40. Very High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. 153 Table 4. Household efficiency measures. Adapted from MEPSL programme. 47 Table 41. Waste water treatment plants in Fiji and its treatment type. 158 Table 5. BAU Unconditional scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. 55 Table 42 . List of default values used in the IPCC FOD Waste Model. 159 Table 6. BAU Conditional Scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. 59 Table 43. BAU Unconditional scenario for Waste. 162 Table 7. High Ambition Scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. 63 Table 44. BAU Conditional scenario for Waste. 164 Table 8. Very High Ambition scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. 67 Table 45. High Ambition scenario for Waste. 165 Table 9. Summary of total installed capacity for different scenarios for on-grid generation. 70 Table 46. Very High Ambition scenario for Waste. 166 Table 10. Additional capacity and investment required for off-grid rural households under each scenario. 71 Table 47. High-level costing – Waste. 168 Table 11. Relevant Policies for Land Transport. 77 Table 48. Contribution of various components to tourism sector emissions globally. 171 Table 12. GHG Emissions 2014 for Land Transport. 81 Table 49. Percentage of Resorts with Green Initiatives and Green Facilities. 172 Table 13. BAU Unconditional scenario for Land Transport. 82 Table 50. Generation capacity and investment requirements for the tourism sector until 2050. 175 Table 14. BAU Conditional scenario for Land Transport. 83 Table 51. Renewable energy contributions to meeting off-grid hotel electricity demand in 2030 and 2050. 177 Table 15. High Ambition scenario for Land Transport. 84 Table 52. Preliminary Baseline Estimate of Green Formal Jobs in Fiji in Key Sectors (2018). 193 Table 16. Very High Ambition scenario for Land Transport. 86 Table 17. Baseline Emissions for the Domestic Maritime Sector. 100 14 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 15 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS GOF Government of Fiji MAC Marginal abatement cost GPS Global Positioning System MAI Mean annual increment 3R Reduce, reuse, recycle DSM Demand-side management GSS Government Shipping Service MEPS Minimum energy performance standards AAGR Annual average growth rate EBA Ecosystem-based adaptation GSTS Greater Suva Transportation Strategy MEPSL Minimum Energy Performance Standards AC Alternating current ECAL Environment and Climate Adaptation Levy GVW Gross vehicle weight for Appliances and Lighting programme ADB Asian Development Bank EEA European Environment Agency ha Hectares MESCAL Mangrove Ecosystems for Climate Change Adaptation and Livelihoods AFL Airports Fiji Limited EEZ Exclusive economic zone HEVs Hybrid electric vehicles MJ Megajoule AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use EFL Energy Fiji Limited HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons MLTP Maritime and Land Transport Policy AHP Animal health and production EIA Environment impact assessment HFO Heavy fuel oil MMC Mangrove Management Committee AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the EPR Extended producer responsibility HH Household Intergovernmental Panel on Climate MMP Mangrove Management Plan ER-PIN Emission Reduction Program Idea Note ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation Change MOA Ministry of Agriculture EV Electric vehicle ICT Information and communications ATLB Air Transport Licensing Board technology MoIT Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation B5 Biofuels IDO Industrial diesel oil MRV Measurement, reporting and verification FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organisation BAU Business as usual Corporate Statistical Database ILO International Labour Organisation MSAF Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji BC Black carbon FBoS Fiji Bureau of Statistics IMO International Maritime Organisation MW Megawatt BOD Biological oxygen demand FCEF Fiji Commerce and Employers Federation INDC Intended Nationally Determined NO Nitrous oxide BY Base year FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Contribution NAP National Adaptation Plan C Carbon FEA Fiji Electricity Authority IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate NCAMP National Civil Aviation Management Plans CAA Civil Aviation Act Change NCCCC National Climate Change Coordination FHTA Fiji Hotel and Tourism Association CAAF Civil Aviation Authority of Fiji IPP Independent power producer Committee FIR Flight information region CAAFA Civil Aviation Authority of Fiji Act IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency NCV Net calorific value FiT Feed-in-tariff CAGR Compound annual growth rate ISO International Organisation for NDC Nationally Determined Contribution FJD Fijian dollar Standardisation NDP National Development Plan CAPEX Capital expenditure NCCP National Climate Change Policy ISWM Integrated solid waste management NEP National Energy Policy CARA Civil Aviation (Reform) Act FNTPC Fiji National Training and Productivity ITS Intelligent Transport System NGO Non-governmental organisation CCICD Climate Change and International Centre Cooperation Division IUCN International Union for Conservation of NIWMS National Integrated Waste Management FNU Fiji National University Nature Strategy CDL Container Deposit Legislation FOD First order decay kg Kilogram NMT Non-motorized transport CDM Clean Development Mechanism FRA Fiji Roads Authority km Kilometre OTEC Ocean thermal energy conversion CERs Certified Emission Reduction FRCS Fiji Revenue and Customs Service KPI Key performance indicator PHEVs Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles CH4 Methane FSC Fiji Sugar Corporation KSTP Kinoya Sewage Treatment Plant ppm Parts per million CO2 Carbon dioxide GCF Green Climate Fund kt Kilotonnes PT Public transport CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent GCPV Grid-connected photovoltaic kWh Kilowatt hour PV Photovoltaic COP Conference of Parties to the United GDP Gross domestic product Nations Framework Convention on LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning RE Renewable energy GEF Global Environment Facility system Climate Change REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation GGFF Green Growth Framework for Fiji LED Light emitting diode CORs Coefficient of resistances and Forest Degradation GGGI Global Green Growth Institute LEDS Low Emission Development Strategy CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the for International Aviation GHG Greenhouse gas LNG Liquefied natural gas 21st Century CSA Climate smart agriculture GIS Geographic information system LPG Liquefied petroleum gas RoRo Roll on/roll off DC Direct current GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale LTA Fiji Land Transport Authority SDGs Sustainable Development Goals Zusammenarbeit DCA Department of Civil Aviation LUC Land use change SE4All Sustainable Energy for All GLEAM Global livestock environmental DOC Degradable organic content M&E Monitoring and evaluation SEIAPI Sustainable Energy Industry Association of assessment model DoE Department of Energy MA Mitigation action the Pacific Islands GMBM Global market-based measure 16 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 17 SIDS Small Island Developing State(s) SPC The Pacific Community (formerly the Secretariat of the Pacific Community) SPTO South Pacific Tourism Organisation STP Sewage treatment plant SWD Solid waste disposal SWDS Solid waste disposal site T&D Transmission and distribution tCO2 Tonnes of carbon dioxide TCs Tropical cyclones TNC Third National Communication TV Television TVET Technical and vocational education and training UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USD United States dollar 1 INTRODUCTION USP University of the South Pacific V2G Vehicle to grid VGM Vatukoula Gold Mines WAF Water Authority of Fiji WiG Wing-in-Ground WTE Waste to energy WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council WWF World Wildlife Fund WWT Wastewater treatment WWTP Wastewater treatment plant 18 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 1 INTRODUCTION Preparation of Fiji’s LEDS has been led by the Climate Change and International Cooperation Division (CCICD) The vision elaborated in this LEDS, and the pathways to achieve it, will provide a benchmark against which short- and medium-term planning can be measured, “The LEDS adopts at the Ministry of Economy with support from the including national development planning, and new or revised NDCs to be submitted Fiji’s vision is … to forge a grand coalition to accelerate Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI). CCICD convened to the UNFCCC. The LEDS is, however, designed to be a living document that evolves a pragmatic climate action before 2020 and beyond between civil and chaired a LEDS Steering Committee composed as national circumstances change over time, as data becomes available to improve approach to society, the scientific community, the private sector and all levels of government, including cities and of government ministries and major public utilities modelled pathways, and as new decarbonisation options emerge. developing sector- representing all relevant sectors in Fiji. CCICD then regions. I repeat: We are all vulnerable and we all engaged members of the Steering Committee as well Fiji’s 2050 LEDS vision is underpinned by similar visions contained in national by-sector pathways development frameworks, including “a better Fiji for all,” which guides A Green Growth need to act. – Fijian COP23 Presidency as numerous national and international experts and Framework for Fiji (2014) and aims for accelerated green growth that is innovative, to decarbonisation” stakeholders from private sector, academia, and civil

1.1 A MID-CENTURY LOW EMISSION integrated, inclusive, inspires, and creates investment for transformational change,5 society through a participatory process to develop the and “transforming Fiji,” the vision of the NDP (2017). The concept of LEDS integrates DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR FIJI LEDS (described in section 1.5 below). emission reduction and sustainable development objectives into sustainable, low As a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Fiji is one of carbon, and resilient pathways. the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate 1.2 FIJI’S VISION change, while also being among those countries least Fiji aims to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 1.3 THE APPROACH TO FIJI’S LEDS responsible for contributing to the problem. Yet Fiji has across all sectors of its economy. This is consistent Fiji’s LEDS takes a systematic top-down and bottom-up approach to developing an in many ways demonstrated leadership in international and aligns directly with Fiji’s objective stated above to economy-wide plan to decarbonisation. The LEDS identifies a strategic high-ambition climate action, by being the first country to ratify the ensure that net zero emissions is achieved globally by net zero vision for 2050 as established in the NDP. The LEDS then adopts a pragmatic Paris Agreement and serving as President of the 20503. It also answers the urgent call issued by the approach to developing sector-by-sector pathways to decarbonisation, providing 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) of the United Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in modelled baseline scenarios, as well as scenarios associated with Business-As-Usual Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change the newly released report, Global Warming of 1.5°C, an (BAU) Unconditional pathways (undertaken domestically), BAU Conditional pathways (UNFCCC). Fiji has adopted ambitious targets in its first IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming (requiring international support), and High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global to achieve decarbonisation in each sector. The LEDS is primarily focused on mitigation, Paris Agreement and was among the first countries, GHG emission pathways, in the context of strengthening rather than adaptation, which is the primary focus of Fiji’s National Adaptation Plan. and the first SIDS, to develop an NDC Implementation the global response to the threat of climate change, Roadmap. Fiji is submitting this long-term low emission sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate The LEDS examines the following sectors: development strategy (LEDS) as an extension of that poverty (hereinafter IPCC SR 1.5°C). This report urges leadership, outlining an ambitious path towards mid- countries to undertake immediate and sustained GHG • Electricity and other energy generation and use; century decarbonisation. emissions reductions, reaching net zero in 2050, in order • Land transport; to have the possibility of limiting global warming to Fiji is at a crossroads in deciding its development 1.5°C.4 • Domestic maritime transport; trajectory in the 21st C entury. The 5-year and 20- year National Development Plan (hereinafter National Fiji’s transition to a low carbon economy is critical to • Domestic air transport; Development Plan or NDP) recognizes this in its vision of meeting the government’s development objectives, • Agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU); transforming Fiji, stating that “Consistent with the goal including those elaborated in the NDP (2017) and the of the Paris Agreement to achieve climate neutrality and Green Growth Framework for Fiji (2014), as well as the • Wetlands (i.e., coastal wetlands, also referred to as blue carbon); a low-emission world, [Fiji] will develop a 2050 Pathway internationally agreed Sustainable Development Goals • Waste; and to decarbonise the Fijian economy.”1 The mid-century (SDGs) and the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. • The cross-cutting sectors of tourism, commerce, industry, and manufacturing. targets that Fiji identifies as part of its LEDS vision will While Fiji’s share of global GHG emissions is negligible Apart from the last item above, the sectors are defined based on those identified in the serve to dramatically reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) compared to developed and major emerging economies, 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories, which include: energy, industrial emissions. Fiji is committed to leading by example and aims to processes and product use, AFOLU, and waste. The sectors were further selected and This LEDS serves as Fiji’s vision of, and pathway towards, contribute to emission reductions by fully decarbonising disaggregated to better fit key contributors to both Fiji’s economic and GHG emissions a sustainable, resilient low carbon economy. In addition, its economy by 2050. This LEDS outlines ambitious profile. Sector-specific methodologies are described in Chapter 4. It should be noted it is Fiji’s contribution to achieving the global climate scenarios to deeply decarbonise all sectors of Fiji’s that industrial process emissions were not considered in this LEDS as total emissions action goal articulated in the Paris Agreement to hold economy by or before 2050. The scenarios elaborated from this sector in Fiji are marginal. “the increase in the global average temperature to 2°C in the LEDS are expected to not only decarbonise above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the economy, but also to make Fiji’s economy more the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial innovative, sustainable, and resilient by leveraging a levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce variety of sustainable development and adaptation co- the risks and impacts of climate change.”2 benefits of mitigation actions. 1Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. 3Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. 5Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 2UNFCCC. (2015a). Paris Agreement. 4IPCC. (2018). Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. 20 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 21

1.4 WHY A LEDS? The Fiji LEDS work plan encompassed five primary tasks Stakeholder Consultations The concept of Low Emission Development Strategies emerged in the lead-up to the “LEDS have to complete the national LEDS: CCICD convened three National Stakeholder Workshops climate negotiations under the UNFCCC in Copenhagen at COP15. The Copenhagen since emerged • Task 1: Organise the LEDS Process: Institutional with key national and sub-national government, Accord notes that “a low emission development strategy is indispensable for Arrangements, Coordination, and Multi-Stakeholder non-governmental, academic, and private sector sustainable development.”6 LEDS have since emerged as a key tool to bridge as a key tool to Engagement Process (conducted during the entire stakeholders to inform them about the LEDS process countries’ sustainable development and climate mitigation objectives. While some bridge countries’ duration of the LEDS preparation process); and progress, and to solicit feedback to incorporate LEDS are sectoral, the objective is an economy-wide, country-driven, national- sustainable • Task 2: Assess the Current Situation: Strategies, into the LEDS itself. The three workshops addressed: level development strategy that promotes economic growth and long-term the development of Fiji’s 2050 vision for low emission decarbonisation. A LEDS identifies specific pathways towards decarbonisation, and development and Policies, Practices, and Capacities (conducted during development, both economy-wide and for each sector; March to May 2018, and included preparation of describes specific programs, policy recommendations, and implementation and climate mitigation the Fiji Low Emission Development Strategy Policy scenario development in each sector, including financing strategies to get there. objectives” Background Report); business-as-usual (BAU), high ambition, and very high ambition mitigation scenarios; and validation of findings While LEDS have never been a mandatory component under the UNFCCC, the Paris Agreement encourages Parties to submit a LEDS saying they “should strive to • Task 3: Analyse Options - Identify and Analyse for each sector. BAU and Low Emission Development Scenarios formulate and communicate long-term low GHG emission development strategies… Key stakeholders for each sector are identified in (conducted during June to October 2018); taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective Chapter 4 (see below). Other national, regional and capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.”7 In the decision • Task 4. Prioritise actions: Identify Policy, Financing, international stakeholders consulted during the LEDS accompanying the Paris Agreement, this is further clarified by an invitation to and Other Implementation Options and Priorities preparation process included: the Fiji Revenue and Parties “to communicate, by 2020, to the secretariat mid-century, long-term low GHG (conducted during June to October 2018); and Customs Services; the Fiji Bureau of Statistics; the Fijian emission development strategies in accordance with Article 4.19 of the Agreement, • Task 5. Prepare Fiji LEDS Document (conducted Competition and Consumers Commission; the Ministry and requests the secretariat to publish on the UNFCCC website Parties’ low GHG of Health; the Ministry of Women, Children, and Poverty during August to October 2018). emission development strategies as communicated.”8 Alleviation; the Fiji Consumer Council; Fiji Development To identify and develop both the top-down and bottom- Bank, Pacific Islands Climate Action Network; Reserve Fiji committed to responding to the call for mid-century LEDS in the Paris Agreement up approaches, CCICD engaged both a LEDS Steering Bank of Fiji; Pacific Islands Development Forum; the in its National Development Plan, which notes that “Fiji will strive to formulate and Committee and sector-specific stakeholders, including Delegation of the European Union for the Pacific; KOICA; communicate long-term greenhouse gas emission development strategies …. As civil society, through committee meetings and a series of JICA; GIZ; the Australian High Commission; the New such, Fiji will develop by 2020 mid-century long-term low greenhouse gas emission national stakeholder consultation workshops. Zealand High Commission; the Fiji COP23 Secretariat; development strategies, laying out a plan to deeply decarbonise the Fijian economy by 2050.”9 This LEDS will be submitted to the UNFCCC secretariat in fulfilment of the Fiji Environmental Law Association; The Pacific Steering Committee both the invitation in the Paris Agreement and in alignment with the commitment Community; Westpac Banking Corporation; and the made in the National Development Plan. In late February, CCICD invited 14 government ministries International Labour Organization, amongst others. and agencies to the Fiji LEDS Steering Committee.10 The adoption of an ambitious LEDS by Fiji is important as it will help to link the Approximately 100 stakeholders attended the First The Steering Committee serves as an advisory group, national climate change policy to national development plans and sectoral planning National Stakeholder Consultation Workshop on the providing guidance, information, recommendations, processes, engage stakeholders across the economy to enhance buy-in and Fiji LEDS on the 23rd of May, 2018. The workshop and advice to CCICD and partners providing technical ownership of climate mitigation strategies, enable Fiji to meet international climate informed stakeholders on the LEDS process to date assistance in developing the LEDS. In March 2018, one- commitments through nationally appropriate actions, and leverage public and private and described overall global climate change trends and on-one briefings were conducted with members of the climate finance, both domestically and internationally. considerations for achieving net zero and net-negative Committee to introduce and describe the LEDS process. decarbonisation towards limited global warming to 1.5°C As it concludes its Presidency of the COP, Fiji also embraces the opportunity to The Committee later met twice (in March and August) above preindustrial levels. The workshop also engaged demonstrate leadership, as one of the first comprehensive LEDS of any SIDS and and was consulted via written procedure in October 2018 participants in discussion on Fiji’s long-term vision among developing countries in general, in applying the LEDS towards achieving the to provide guidance and to review the sectoral analyses, for low emission development to 2050. Sector-specific critically important goal of limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C. proposed emissions reduction pathways, and the final presentations were given by responsible government LEDS document before it was submitted to the Cabinet ministries and agencies, describing relevant current

1.5 PROCESS FOR DEVELOPING FIJI’S LEDS for approval in November 2018. policies, sector development goals and targets, GHG The Ministry of Economy engaged GGGI to support the LEDS in early 2018 and a reduction opportunities, and both short-term and workplan was jointly developed to complete the LEDS by COP24 in Katowice, Poland, including a comprehensive process for conducting stakeholder consultations, preparing economy-wide low emission scenarios, and identifying priority policies and mitigation actions. 10The Fiji LEDS Steering Committee is composed of: the Climate Change and International Cooperation Division (CCICD) of the Ministry of Economy; the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, Department of Energy and Transport Planning; Energy Fiji Limited; the Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji; the Land Transport Authority; the Ministry of Agriculture; the Ministry of Forestry; the Ministry of Lands and Mineral Resources; the Ministry of Sugar; the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and Department of Tourism; the Ministry of Environment and Waterways, ; the Fiji Bureau of Statistics; the Fiji Revenue and Customs Services; the Water Authority of Fiji; and the Fijian Competition and Consumers Commission. CCICD Chaired the Steering Committee, while GGGI supported CCICD in serving as the Secretariat. 6UNFCCC. (2009). The Copenhagen Accord. 9Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development 7UNFCCC. (2015a). Paris Agreement. Plan. 8 UNFCCC. (2015b). Decision 1/CP.21. 22 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 23 long-term low emission projects and financing needs. 1.6 OVERVIEW OF THE FIJI LEDS Participants developed vision statements for each DOCUMENT sector as well as outcome-oriented, measurable, time The Fiji LEDS is structured to progress from the limited, specific, and practical near- and long-term low domestic and international context to sector-specific low emission development goals (as applicable). Sectors emission scenarios, then to linkages with adaptation, covered in the workshop included: electricity and other social, environmental, and economic considerations, energy; land transport; domestic maritime transport; and finally to governance and monitoring and evaluation agriculture; forestry; waste; blue carbon and wetlands; (M&E) for the LEDS. Chapter 2 describes the national and tourism, the commercial sector, manufacturing, and circumstances underlying the LEDS, including the industry.11 national context, global warming context, international The Second National Stakeholder Consultation was and regional action to address climate change, Fiji’s arranged as a series of separate half-day workshops overall efforts to achieve sustainable development, focusing on individual sectors during June and July and the national legal and institutional frameworks. 2018 on the topics of electricity and other energy, land Chapter 3 explores pathways towards low emission transport, domestic maritime transport, domestic air development and deep decarbonisation in Fiji, looking transport, AFOLU, waste, and tourism and industry.12 at economy-wide scenarios for achieving Fiji’s net zero These workshops provided stakeholders with sector- vision through multi-level climate action. Chapter 4 specific presentations on the current emission elaborates targets and measures in detail, including trends and low emission ambitions (based on the emission pathways and scenarios, for each of the seven first consultation workshop) and on the analysis and target sectors as well as considering cross-cutting modelling work conducted to date, considering BAU, sectors, such as tourism. Chapter 5 examines the high ambition, and very high ambition mitigation climate change adaptation and resilience dimensions of scenarios and policy recommendations. implementing the LEDS, including synergies between 2 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES The Third National Stakeholder Consultation Workshop sectoral decarbonisation pathways and adaptation, as was held on the 28th of August, 2018, serving as the well as adaptation in the context of Fiji’s economy-wide final stakeholder consultation in the LEDS development LEDS vision. Chapter 6 explores economic, social, and process. The objective was to inform stakeholders on environmental dimensions of the LEDS activities in final emission scenarios and actions that had been Fiji. Chapter 7 provides an overview of key education, developed to achieve net zero emissions, receive final capacity building, and awareness raising actions feedback, prioritise actions, and discuss opportunities needed to implement emission reductions for each for implementing the LEDS. For each sector, the four sector of the LEDS. Finally, Chapter 8 outlines the low emission scenarios and associated actions were proposed governance structure for implementing the presented including Very High Ambition scenarios aimed LEDS over the coming decades, including the process at achieving net zero emissions. Participants provided for periodically updating the LEDS and also outlines feedback by prioritising actions while considering a a framework for monitoring and evaluation of the broad range of social, economic, and environmental implementation of the LEDS. Annex A provides a list of criteria. This workshop also offered the first opportunity prioritised actions to be implemented based on the low to see the effects of mitigation actions across all sectors, emission development scenarios presented in the LEDS. and, when considering all sectors in combination, demonstrated a clear pathway for Fiji to achieve net zero emissions overall by the year 2050. 11Due to lack of representation, domestic air transport was not specifically addressed in the first stakeholder workshop. 12Additional consultation meetings were also arranged to discuss wetlands in August 2018. 24 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 2 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES “It is critical to Figure 2. Cumulative Emissions of CO2 and future non-CO2 radiative forcing determine the probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Fiji’s vision is … to harness innovation, enterprise, and investment to fast track the decouple economic development and deployment of climate solutions that will build future economies growth from with net zero greenhouse gas emissions, in an effort to limit the rise of global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. – Fijian COP23 carbon emissions, Presidency while at the same time ensuring

2.1 NATIONAL CONTEXT Fiji is a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) in the South Pacific, encompassing that Fiji meets an area of 18,725 km2, and includes 332 islands in total, 110 of which are inhabited. its development Its population is 884,887, according to the 2017 national census, with most of the objectives” population located on the islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu. Fiji has a large exclusive economic zone of approximately 1.3 million square kilometres.13 Fiji’s current per capita income stands at approximately USD 5,000. The economy of Fiji has been growing since 2009, with an average growth rate of close to 4% from 2011 to 2015.14 Growth has been driven by robust tourism and construction industries, with increasing manufacturing, finance, and transportation sectors. Investment in Fiji increased to 26% of GDP in 2015, primarily in association with private sector investment, and growth is expected to continue.15 In order to ensure sustainable development, it is critical to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions, while at the same time ensuring that Fiji meets its development objectives. This LEDS presents deep decarbonisation pathways across all major sectors of Fiji’s economy, including: electricity and other energy use; transport (land, maritime, and domestic aviation); agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU); coastal wetlands (blue carbon); and waste.16

2.2 A WARMING PLANET In February 2016, one of the strongest recorded tropical cyclones in history, Cyclone Winston, made landfall in Fiji, with peak sustained winds of 233 km per hour. The storm caused 80% of the population to lose power, while nearly 40% of the population was significantly affected by the storm, facing loss of life, property, and livelihoods. Damage amounted to more than USD 0.9 billion.17 It is increasingly possible to attribute extreme weather events, such as Cyclone Winston, in part to climate change. In a warming world, Fiji will face cyclones of increasing intensity, as well as other significant impacts. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC reiterates that human impacts on the climate system are incontrovertible, and that anthropogenic GHG emissions will cause and, indeed, already have caused significant impacts, The recently released IPCC Special Report on Global associated with different levels of warming. Warming of including warming of the oceans and atmosphere, decreasing snow and ice, and rising Warming of 1.5°C emphasises that there are significant even 1.5°C is associated with extreme weather events sea levels, among others.18 Figure 2 presents warming trends from 1850 to present negative impacts at even a 1.5°C temperature increase and poses a high risk to unique and threatened systems, with emission scenarios associated with different levels of emission reductions. above preindustrial levels and highlights that the while risk rapidly and significantly increases with observed warming in 2017 already reached 1°C above additional warming. preindustrial levels. Figure 3 illustrates the level of risk 13Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 14Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. 15Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. 16Note, industrial process emissions are not considered in this LEDS due to a shortage of relevant data and the assumption, as in Fiji’s Third National Communication, that total emissions from this sector are minimal. 17Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 18IPCC. (2014). AR5 Synthesis for Policy Makers (SPM). 26 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 27 Figure 3. How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated with Reasons for Concern and to unique and threatened ecosystems (including very and adaptation targets. These near-term targets are selected natural, managed, and human systems at a Global Scale for Increasing Levels of Climate Change. high risk to warm water corals), and high risk of coastal complemented by the voluntary LEDS process, which flooding – all of which are of particular consequence to encourages Parties to elaborate mid-century targets and Fiji as a SIDS.21 associated emission reduction pathways that can guide elaboration of new or revised NDCs. While adaptation to climate change impacts, both globally and within Fiji, is essential, it is critical for all A number of parallel international processes address countries to adopt ambitious NDCs in the near-term and specific sources of emissions, which have implications long-term LEDS. In order to have a chance to meet the for emission reductions in Fiji either because they Paris Agreement objective of keeping the temperature are likely to effect technology development or market increase to 2°C, while pursuing efforts to limit the conditions in Fiji. These include: the Carbon Offsetting temperature increase to 1.5°C, warming must peak as and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation soon as possible and must be reduced to nearly zero (CORSIA) adopted under the International Civil Aviation between 2040 and 2060, depending on the scenario (see Organization (ICAO) in 2016, which creates a Global Figure 2 above). The earlier emissions peak and the Market-Based Measure (GMBM) to promote carbon more rapidly emissions are curtailed, the more likely the neutral growth in the international aviation sector;24 the earth is to avoid critical and unpredictable tipping points Initial Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from and the less impact vulnerable countries, such as Fiji, Ships adopted by the International Maritime Organization will experience. Pathways to achieve both 1.5°C and 2°C (IMO) in 2018, which aims to reduce the carbon intensity scenarios require ambitious action across all sectors of international shipping;25 and the Kigali Amendment of the economy, including energy, industry, forestry, to the Montreal Protocol to the Vienna Convention for transport, agriculture, and buildings.22 the Protection of the Ozone Layer, which was adopted in 2016 and establishes a pathway to phase out the use of

2.3 INTERNATIONAL ACTION TO hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent GHGs, between 2036 ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE and 2047.26 Fiji has already ratified, or is in the process of ratifying, all of these parallel agreements. Global action to address climate change began with the adoption of the UNFCCC in 1992, which requires Parties to “achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas

2.4 ACHIEVING THE SUSTAINABLE concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would DEVELOPMENT GOALS prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with International and national commitments to sustainable the climate system.”23 Fiji has been a Party to the development will be difficult to achieve without Convention since 1993 and has played a leading role addressing climate change impacts and achieving deep in the evolution of the international climate regime. decarbonisation by the mid-twentieth century. At the Most recently Fiji served as the President of COP23 to same time, actions taken to effect deep decarbonisation the UNFCCC in 2017, the first SIDS to do so, providing have consequences, both positive and negative, on critical leadership in advancing negotiations on livelihoods, health, and wellbeing, as well as efforts to operationalising the Paris Agreement. reduce poverty. The exact consequences of climate change for Fiji • Coastal flooding due to storm surges combined with The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, significantly The international process to achieve sustainable are difficult to predict as it is challenging to assess sea-level rise will increase; advanced the global climate objective, making the first development culminated in the 2030 Sustainable the implications of global climate models for specific • Fiji experiences high flood frequency, which will reference to the 1.5°C goal. The Agreement provides Development Agenda and the Sustainable Development localities, in particular because many of the islands the formal basis for a pledge and review system, in Goals (SDGs) adopted in 2015.27 While Goal 13 on increase further, with 1-in-20-year flooding events comprising SIDS are significantly smaller than global which Parties will provide, on a regular basis, new climate change provides a direct link between climate becoming 1-in-9 or 1-in-4-year events; circulation model grid squares (typically 200-600 km2).19 NDCs containing their national climate mitigation mitigation and the global effort to achieve sustainable Fiji’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment does, however, • Risk of landslides will increase; and identify a number of predicted impacts, including the • Sea-level rise will increase exposure to unrelated following: risks such as tsunamis.20 21IPCC. (2018). Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. ensure clean water and sanitation for all; ensure access to sustainable 22UNEP. (2017a). Emissions Gap Report; and IPCC. (2018). Special • While overall frequency of cyclones is not expected to The IPCC, in its Special Report on Global Warming of Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. and modern energy for all; promote sustained, inclusive economic work and ensure decent work for all; build resilient infrastructure and promote 23UN. (1992). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate increase, and may in fact decrease, the proportion of 1.5°C, reiterates that even limiting warming to 1.5°C will sustainable industrialization; reduce income inequality; make cities Change, Art. 2, 4. and human resources sustainable; ensure sustainable consumption; high-intensity cyclones (Category 4 and 5) will rise; result in high risk of extreme weather events, high risk 24ICAO. (2016). Environmental Report 2016 – Aviation and climate take urgent action on climate change; conserve and sustainable change. International Civil Aviation Organization. use the oceans; protect, restore and promote sustainable terrestrial 25International Maritime Organization. (2018). Initial GHG Emissions ecosystems; promote peace and access to justice; and strengthen means Reduction Strategy. London: IMO. of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable 26UNEP. (2017b). Kigali Amendment. 19Government of Fiji. (2017c). Climate Vulnerability Assessment. development. 27The SDGs set goals to: eliminate poverty; end hunger; ensure health 20Government of Fiji. (2017c). Climate Vulnerability Assessment. and wellbeing; ensure quality education; achieve gender equality; 28 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 29 development, climate change is a cross-cutting issue addition to emission reductions, they address adaptation Implementation Roadmap further analysed the actions needed and estimated a total cost of USD 2.97 billion for across all of the SDGs. needs. Fiji is also the host country and a Steering Fiji to reach its NDC targets.30 The NDC covers the renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors and the specific Committee member for the recently established Pacific actions to achieve the NDC are elaborated in the NDC Implementation Roadmap. Efforts are underway to elaborate The LEDS, as a plan to achieve long-term low carbon Regional NDC Hub, which aims to support Pacific Island an enhanced NDC with targets for the AFOLU and transport sectors, and the LEDS assists in this process by defining emissions development, provides the opportunity to countries to enhance and implement their NDCs, thus emission reduction pathways in all major sectors of Fiji’s economy. integrate national sustainable development objectives driving sustainable and resilient development and into the context of deep decarbonisation and vice versa. Fiji has numerous sector-specific regulations and policies. These are described in detail in the Fiji Low Emission transition to a low carbon development pathway. The The LEDS aims to support Fiji in meeting the SDGs Development Strategy Policy Background Report and, as relevant, in the sector specific sections in Chapter 4. A LEDS further aligns Fiji to these agreements by making at the national level by supporting country-driven summary of key development goals and climate targets in Fiji’s existing policies and strategies, which have been a commitment, at a national level, which complements processes, enhancing integration of decarbonisation taken into account in the development of the LEDS, is given in Table 2 below. and promotes regional action. strategies into national planning, aligning development and climate change and strengthening coordination, and Table 2. Key Development Goals and Climate Targets in Fiji’s Policies and Strategies. improving multi-stakeholder engagement and action. 2.6 FIJI’S LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS Year Target Trajectory It is important to keep in mind that the shift to 2015 2021 2026 2031 2036 decarbonisation of the economy presented in this At the national level Fiji has a robust framework of institutions, laws, regulations, and policy and planning Economic Targets LEDS aims to result in emissions reductions without threatening the national long-term development documents that govern economy-wide and sector Goals/Targets objectives, as outlined in the National Development specific aspects of GHG emission reductions. Fiji is a 2036 Fourfold increase in GDP per capita* Plan (NDP) 2017-2036, and without limiting the parliamentary democratic republic, governed by the 2036 Average annual real GDP growth 4-5% (%)* 3.6 4-5 4-5 4-5 4-5 achievement of the SDGs. The IPCC Special Report Constitution of the Republic of Fiji, which came into 2036 Government debt 35% of GDP (%)* 48.7 47.7 45 40 35 on Global Warming of 1.5°C outlines the significant effect on the 6th of September, 2013. The development 2036 Unemployment rate <4% (%)* 6.2 4 4 4 4 risks to sustainable development of overshooting of Fiji is guided by a series of national development 2030 Reduce people in poverty to 150,000 from 259,554 in 2008-2009** 150,000 1.5°C but notes that there are also potential trade- planning documents, including the National Economy-wide Climate Targets offs between sustainable development and net zero Development Plan, adopted in 2017, and A Green Growth Framework for Fiji, elaborated in 2014, which set both Economy-wide Climate Goals/Targets emission pathways. However, the IPCC acknowledges that those trade-offs can be minimised through economy-wide and sector-specific development targets 2050 Net-zero global GHG emissions* careful and robust planning processes that integrate for Fiji as shown in Table 2 below. Emission reduction- 2050 Deep economy-wide decarbonisation (from 2013 base year)* 30% (energy related targets contained in existing economy-wide and sector) sustainable development and mitigation actions.28 The LEDS will therefore be a key reference document for sector specific policies are described in detail in the Fiji Sector Specific Climate Targets all stakeholders involved in national planning and low Low Emission Development Strategy Policy Background Energy Sector Targets/KPIs carbon pathway initiatives for Fiji. Report, 2018, which has been published as a companion 2021 Access to electricity (% of population) *, *** 90 100 100 100 100 to this LEDS. 2036 Population with primary reliance on wood fuels for cooking (% of population) *** 18 12 6 >1 0

2.5 CLIMATE ACTION IN THE PACIFIC Fiji also has many climate specific policies including the 2036 Reduced consumption of imported fuel per unit of GDP (MJ/FJD)*** 2.89 2.86 2.73 REGION AND WITH SIDS 2012 National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), the initial 2036 Reduced power consumption per unit of GDP (kWh/FJD)*, *** 0.219 0.215 0.209 NDC submitted in 2015, the 2017 NDC Implementation 2036 Renewable energy share in electricity generation (%)*, **, *** 67 81 90 99 100 Fiji has also demonstrated climate leadership through Roadmap, the 2017 National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2035 Increase renewable energy share in total energy consumption (%)*, *** 13 18 25 engagement in regional processes that address, in Framework, and the 2017 Climate Vulnerability particular, the impacts of climate change in the Pacific 2022 Installed solar household systems (No. households)* 1,100 Assessment. In 2018, Fiji has finalised its NAP, as well and among SIDS, in general. Fiji is a signatory to the 2022 Installed hybrid systems* 10 as produced a revised 2018 NCCP aimed at scaling up 1994 Barbados Plan of Action, the 2005 Mauritius 2022 Installed mini-hydro systems* 10 adaptation and mitigation actions and strengthening Strategy for Implementation, the 2005 Pacific Disaster Transport Sector Targets/KPIs sub-national climate planning. Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Framework *** Move from Euro 2 emissions standard to Euro 5 emissions standard*, ** of Action, the 2005 Pacific Islands Framework for Fiji submitted an ambitious first NDC, which aims to 2021 Reduce dependence on imported fossil fuel/km travelled (%)* 42 32 Action on Climate Change, and the 2016 Framework reduce emissions 30% from a BAU scenario by 2030, 2030 Reduce final energy consumption dependence on imported fossil fuel (%)** 42 32 22 for Resilient Development in the Pacific. These focus 10% of which is unconditional and achieved through on the vulnerability of SIDS and Pacific Island States implementation of the Green Growth Framework for 2021 Reduce vehicle emission levels (%)* 50 40 to climate change and, in particular, to sea-level rise Fiji 2014, while 20% is conditional on external funding 2021 Container port traffic (million tonnes)* 1.76 1.87 and increased frequency of cyclones and droughts. In estimated at USD 500 million in 2015.29 The NDC 2022 Biofuel (Ethanol/Biodiesel) plant installed* 4 28IPCC. (2018). Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. 30Government of Fiji. (2017b). NDC Implementation Roadmap 2017-2030. 29Government of Fiji. (2015). Nationally Determined Contributions. 30 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 31 2022 Biogas facilities, plants installed* 24 2022 Domestic aviation passenger growth (%)* 20% 30% 2022 Domestic aircraft landing growth (%)* 15% 20% 2022 Increase in maritime GSS shipping vessels (No.)* 9 13 2022 Increase registered ships/vessels (number)* 15 25 2022 Increase registered boats* 370 490 AFOLU Sector Targets/KPIs 2036 Forest area under long-term conservation (%)* 3 5 16 2022 Reforestation of degraded forests total (hectares)* 500 5,300 2036 Increased share of food domestically produced (%)* 32 42 TBD TBD TBD 2022 Sugarcane production (Total No. hectares of fallow land planting and replanting) 6,000 33,000 2022 Sugarcane production (million tonnes)* 1.39 3.0 2022 Livestock production (% increase per annum)* 5% 5% Waste Sector Targets/KPIs 2036 Access to central sewerage system (% of population)* 25 40 50 60 70 2036 Access to central sewage system, urban (% of population)* 25 40 50 60 70 2036 Access to central sewage system, rural (% of population)* 0 40 50 60 70 2022 Wastewater system extension (km)* 141.3 2022 Upgrading of wastewater treatment plants (number of plants)* 11 2022 Rural sewerage plants installed* 36 2022 Improved final disposal sites (number)* 1 5 3 PATHWAYS TOWARDS *Government of Fiji 2017b; ** Government of Fiji 2014; ***Government of Fiji 2014 LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP DECARBONISATION IN FIJI 32 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 33 3 PATHWAYS TOWARDS LOW EMISSION aspires to expand access of urban and rural households to central sewerage from 25% and 0% respectively to Roadmap), thus this scenario would have higher ambition than “BAU Unconditional.” DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP DECARBONISATION 70%, along with upgrades to wastewater treatment plants and new rural sewerage plans. • A “High Ambition scenario” projects ambitions beyond those already specified in policy, thus relying IN FIJI As described in Fiji’s NDP, implementation of the entire plan, which spans 2017 to 2036, is expected to require on the adoption of new, more ambitious policies and technologies and the availability of additional

3.1 FIJI’S ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ministries and sectors (avoiding “silos”), and considers more than USD 23.4 billion (FJD 50 billion) of investment financing to implement mitigation actions. This 10 key development areas and environment, social, in Fiji’s economy and social development over the scenario aims to achieve significant emission PRIORITIES AND TRENDS TO 2050 next 20 years, including both capital expenditures and reductions by 2050 compared with the business-as- and economic pillars that work to promote disaster This LEDS provides not only a collection of long-term provision of social services. The Fijian Government usual scenarios. and climate resilience, address waste and ecosystem low emission development scenarios for Fiji, but also a envisions mobilising both domestic revenues (tax and strategy for transforming this South Pacific Island nation management challenges, promote inclusive social • A “Very High Ambition scenario” projects ambitions development, food security, and improved water and non-tax) and international financial resources, including into one with a robust, modernised economy which has well beyond those already specified in policy, sanitation, as well as promote sustainable energy and funding from multilateral development partners, as well incorporated goals and targets for decarbonisation. thus relying on the adoption of new, significantly transportation, innovation, and greener tourism and as an increasing core source of financing from private As such, this LEDS provides an opportunity for Fiji to more ambitious policies and technologies and manufacturing.33 sector and climate finance sources.35 As a subset of demonstrate international leadership and help compel the availability of new technologies and additional these investments, as noted above, the government nations around the world to achieve the global-level As reflected in the more ambitious scenarios in financing to implement mitigation actions. Under estimates that the total cost of implementing Fiji’s NDC objective of limiting atmospheric warming to 1.5°C this LEDS, Fiji’s long-term development aspirations this scenario, the aim is to achieve at least net zero Implementation Roadmap will be USD 2.97 billion. above pre-industrial levels and minimise climate reflect coordinated action domestically and significant emissions, if not net negative emissions, by 2050 or risks. Fiji aspires to implement deep economy-wide international engagement. A key aspect of this is earlier in most sectors.

3.2 ECONOMY-WIDE LEDS PATHWAYS decarbonisation and achieve at least net zero GHG the need for considerable financing and investment Following extensive stakeholder consultations, analysis, – especially for the most ambitious scenarios – for This LEDS document presents a comprehensive emissions by the year 2050. and modelling of different scenarios for each sector, the adopting (and, in many cases, importing) low emission description of the range of options and priorities for Simultaneously, as outlined in its NDP and other LEDS estimates that net zero emissions is achievable technologies and significantly improved management Fiji to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century. national policies, over the next three decades Fiji sets under the Very High Ambition scenario in the year practices in low or zero emission energy, transport, Detailed descriptions of the pathways are discussed out to achieve a four-fold increase in GDP per capita, an 2041, after which emissions would increasingly be waste management, agriculture, forests, and coastal in each of the subsections of Chapter 4, below. These annual real GDP growth rate of 4-5%, poverty reduction net negative. Under the BAU scenarios total emission wetlands. scenarios are largely based on existing and proven of 43%, and an unemployment rate of under 4%. Along levels are expected to stay more or less at the same technologies; although, given the long timeframe, some these lines, Fiji aims to increase access to electricity Through these measures, Fiji expects to achieve a level between 2020 and 2050 – initially declining due basic assumptions have been made about technological to 100% of the population by the year 2021, convert number of key benefits, including increasing GDP and to increased adoption of mitigation measures, and advances as well as the economic and financial 100% of electricity generation to renewables by 2036, revenue (for example, by valuing ecosystem services), then rising again as Fiji’s economy and population feasibility of adopting technologies that are currently not and eliminate all wood consumption for cooking by diversifying the economy (and thus reducing economic continue to grow. However, much more significant yet widely commercialised. 2036.31 Therefore emission reductions envisioned in risks), technology innovation and increased adoption of emissions mitigation will be possible under the High green technology, increased productivity and efficiency This LEDS presents four possible low emission Ambition scenario, and dramatically lower emissions this LEDS will be achieved while supporting national in using natural resources, protection of natural capital, scenarios for Fiji to consider adopting. These include: under the Very High Ambition scenario. The most development goals and working to ensure safety, access and affordability of key infrastructure services (energy, reduced environmental impacts, improved livelihoods • A “BAU Unconditional scenario,” which reflects significant mitigation of emissions results from complete transport, water, and sanitation) to all. and quality of life for the poor, decent jobs, enhanced the implementation of existing and official policies, transformation of Fiji’s energy sector to one based human and social capital, and increased equality. 34 targets, and technologies that are unconditional in on a wide variety of on-grid and off-grid renewable As called for in its Green Growth Framework, Fiji energy generation. This transformation of the energy Fiji has established targets through its NDP and the sense that Fiji would implement and finance envisions a broad transformation in its economic and sector would involve the adoption of clean energy for NDC Implementation Roadmap to reduce reliance on them without reliance on external or international social development towards low carbon, resource commercial, industrial, and household use, as well as imported fossil fuels in the near- and medium-term, financing (largely based on the approach taken in the efficiency through measures that respond to the conversion of most of Fiji’s land transport systems reduce pollution from vehicles, promote the development NDC Implementation Roadmap). international and regional priorities, are participatory, to electric vehicles. The domestic aviation and maritime collaborative, and socially inclusive, promote of biofuel and biogas production, increase adoption of • A “BAU Conditional scenario,” which reflects the sectors will also convert to electricity at a more modest environmental stewardship and civic responsibility, biofuels, expand domestic air travel (to accommodate implementation of existing and official policies, scale, while introducing other measures which will effectively manage risk, promote fair competition, and increased tourism), expand long-term conservation targets, and technologies that are conditional in the drastically reduce emissions. Under the Very High incentivise investment in the sustainable use of natural of forest areas and reforestation of degraded forests, sense that Fiji would rely on external or international Ambition scenario, Fiji’s energy sector itself will be resources. 32 Fiji’s approach, as laid out in the Green increase domestic food production, and increase financing to implement mitigation actions (similar virtually GHG emission free by 2050. Similarly, emissions Growth Framework, aims to integrate efforts across sugarcane and livestock production. By 2036, Fiji also to those described in the NDC Implementation from the waste sector will be reduced to nearly zero as a 31Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development 34Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 35Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. Plan; and Government of Fiji. (2017b). NDC Implementation Roadmap 2017-2030. 32Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 33Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 34 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 35 result of full methane (CH4) capture and utilization for organic wastes and extensive waste reduction and Very High Ambition 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 recycling programs. Electricity and Other 208,577 137,565 100,663 80,788 31,476 24,276 2,695 The primary emissions offsets envisioned under the LEDS will be achieved through AFOLU-related measures, Energy Use including reducing deforestation and investing heavily in sustainable tree plantations and extensive afforestation. Land Transport 790,929 712,473 640,285 368,761 215,399 60,590 0 While currently difficult to calculate, due to limited local data, significant additional offsets are also envisioned Domestic Maritime 187,200 152,300 102,600 70,200 31,600 1,000 0 through mangrove restoration and protection programs. Transport Table 3 provides an overview of total emissions for each sector and for each scenario (note, values for all gases Domestic Air Transport 21,109 25,863 31,634 36,395 41,536 39,971 37,937 have been converted to metric tons CO2e). Detailed descriptions of all emission projections (by source), data and AFOLU 870,302 546,824 272,180 -2,461 -277,101 -551,743 -826,386 assumptions, and policy priorities are provided for each sector in Chapter 4. Waste 172,447 137,569 117,447 83,918 93,520 3,778 2,987 Table 3. Summary of Low Emission Scenarios for All Sectors Total 2,250,564 1,712,595 1,264,809 637,601 136,430 -422,128 -782,767 (metric tonnes CO2e). BAU Unconditional 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Figure 4. BAU Unconditional scenario. Electricity and Other 237,124 219,734 282,652 430,975 603,157 834,329 1,121,791 Energy Use Land Transport 817,396 937,084 1,112,908 1,277,184 1,416,260 1,531,237 1,623,846 Domestic Maritime 198,500 229,900 267,200 317,500 379,100 454,000 545,300 Transport Domestic Air Transport 21,000 27,000 34,000 41,000 50,000 58,000 68,000 AFOLU 870,681 870,729 864,670 858,614 852,554 846,498 840,439 Waste 200,167 226,948 251,061 279,504 301,603 323,293 344,682 Total 2,344,868 2,511,395 2,812,491 3,204,777 3,602,674 4,047,357 4,544,058 BAU Conditional 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity and Other 218,687 167,135 189,934 243,896 325,654 342,695 425,242 Energy Use Land Transport 801,483 850,057 868,969 829,826 775,607 718,293 672,287 Domestic Maritime 195,600 204,500 205,900 221,000 245,300 288,100 340,500 Transport Domestic Air Transport 21,050 25,763 31,484 37,449 44,099 49,945 56,537 AFOLU 870,681 815,412 784,561 753,711 722,859 692,008 661,157 Waste 172,447 137,569 152,037 173,863 187,122 194,967 207,621 Total 2,279,948 2,200,437 2,232,885 2,259,745 2,300,641 2,286,008 2,363,344 High Ambition 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity and Other 213,250 164,719 170,922 184,073 184,121 220,646 240,262 Energy Use Land Transport 791,991 784,501 768,410 701,325 626,637 549,649 477,104 Domestic Maritime 190,100 170,500 145,400 147,600 153,400 172,800 197,400 Transport Domestic Air Transport 21,109 25,863 31,634 36,374 41,485 44,790 48,638 AFOLU 870,681 748,954 663,852 578,752 493,652 408,552 323,453 Waste 172,447 137,569 117,447 83,918 93,520 102,919 112,183 Total 2,259,578 2,032,107 1,897,665 1,732,042 1,592,815 1,499,357 1,399,040 36 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 37 Figure 5. BAU Conditional scenario. Figure 7. Very High Ambition scenario. Figure 6. High Ambition scenario. Consideration of Coastal Wetlands As noted above, whereas the values presented in Table 3 are increasingly ambitious, “Stopping the particularly in the High and Very High Ambition scenarios, the totals do not include removal of the estimates for Coastal Wetlands, provided in section 4.6 below, as the methodology used is simpler than for the other sectors (due to a lack of data). Nevertheless, it mangroves is worth noting that stopping the removal of mangroves and promoting mangrove and promoting recovery and replanting has the potential to provide dramatic sequestration benefits. mangrove recovery With the inclusion of Coastal Wetlands, under the BAU Unconditional scenario, due to continued conversion, total emissions are projected to increase by an additional and replanting has 297,106 tCO2e to a net total of 4,841,164 tCO2e in 2050 for Fiji. Under the BAU the potential to Conditional scenario emissions would increase by an additional 231,189 tCO2e to a net total of 2,594,533 tCO2e. With the noteworthy sequestration benefits provided in provide dramatic the High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios, by 2050 net national emissions sequestration could decrease by an estimated 531,204 and 939,672 tCO2e, respectively, to total net benefits” emissions of 867,836 under High Ambition and net negative emissions of an estimated 1,722,440 tCO2e under Very High Ambition. While still based on limited information, this analysis suggests that Fiji could achieve net negative emissions much earlier if it were to adopt a highly aggressive mangrove restoration program. 38 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 39 4 SECTOR-SPECIFIC TARGETS AND “Today hydropower MEASURES is the mainstay of Fiji’s electricity

4.1 ELECTRICITY AND OTHER ENERGY GENERATION AND USE supply”

4.1.1 Overview This section examines the electricity and other energy use component of Fiji’s LEDS including grid electricity on the major islands, domestic cooking fuels, and LPG usage in commercial and industrial sectors. It also deals with the electricity generation and usage as well as cooking fuel consumption for off-grid locations, including off-grid tourism resorts and the Vatukoula Mine. Fiji’s sole utility Energy Fiji Limited (EFL), formerly Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA), provides grid electricity to the three major islands, Viti Levu, Vanua Levu, and Ovalau, and has recently established a fourth utility grid network system in Taveuni in 2016. EFL is a vertically-integrated utility providing generation, transmission, distribution and sales services. The energy mix for electricity generation comprises mainly hydropower (varying between 45-65% over the last 10 years depending on annual rainfall and other factors) and thermal (industrial diesel oil, or IDO, and heavy fuel oil, or HFO) with some contributions from biomass and wind power (1-3%) and under 1% contributed by solar during 2005-2015. Fiji regulations do not allow more than 500 ppm of sulphur in IDO. 36 The total installed capacity in 2016 was 316 MW with 4 SECTOR-SPECIFIC TARGETS contributions from hydropower (130 MW), wind and biomass (21 MW), and diesel (164.9 MW).37 A 12 MW biomass plant near Sigatoka and approximately 3 MW grid-connected PV (GCPV)38 were added in 2017. EFL’s major installations include: Monasavu hydro (80 MW),39 Nadarivatu hydro (40 MW), and approximately 112 MW of diesel generators. As can be seen in Figure 8, hydropower is the mainstay of Fiji’s electricity supply with AND MEASURES weather patterns being a factor in actual annual generation. 36Isley et al. (2016). Managing Air Quality in Suva. European Journal of Sustainable Development. https://research-management. mq.edu.au/ws/portalfiles/portal/16812097/mq-57690-Publisher+version+%28open+access%29.pdf. 37Parliament of the Republic of Fiji. (2016). Standing Committee on Economic Affairs. Report on Fiji Electricity Authority Annual Report 2016. Department of Legislature. http://www.parliament.gov.fj/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FEA-2016.pdf. 38The GCPV systems are owned and operated by Sunergise. 39Also called the Wailoa Hydro. 40 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 41 Figure 8. Electricity generation by source (EFL).40 Figure 9. Fiji’s NDC emission reduction targets.44 EFL’s current long-term development plan (2018- is similar to that stipulated in Fiji’s Green Growth 2030) includes new hydropower installations (120 MW), Framework42 and SE4All Gap Analysis Report.43 One solar PV (25 MW), and biomass (10 MW) together with third of these emissions reductions (10%) are expected the improvement and extension of transmission and to be achieved through the implementation of the Green Fiji’s National Development Plan aims to achieve areas on larger islands through grid extension funded by distribution networks. Growth Framework (unconditional), while the rest would 100% electrification of the Fiji population by 2021 and the Fijian Government and implemented by EFL, while Fiji’s NDC envisions a 100% renewable energy-based require external funding (conditional). Figure 9 below estimates that Fiji’s electricity sector will become smaller islands are being served with mini/micro grids electricity future by 2030, which, combined with represents Fiji’s NDC targets and the split between fully renewable energy-based by 2036.45 The 100% and solar home systems managed by the Government. economy-wide energy efficiency measures, will help electricity generation and energy efficiency measures. electrification will be achieved through grid extension on According to the 2017 national census, almost 18% of reduce Fiji’s carbon emissions by 30%.41 This target the four main islands and rural electrification schemes total households are dependent on off-grid electricity. (solar home systems and hybrid mini-grids) on the Figure 10 shows the breakdown of the source of smaller islands. electricity for urban and rural households which ranges There have been recent investments in the electricity from EFL to home generators to electricity supplied by grid sector in Fiji by Independent Power Producers the FSC power system. (IPPs), notably by Sunergise, Eltech Ltd., and also Fiji Sugar Corporation (FSC).46 There is an ongoing effort to provide electricity to most of the population living in rural 40http://efl.com.fj/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/fea-annual-report-2016.pdf 44Government of Fiji. (2017b). NDC Implementation Roadmap 2017-2030. 41Government of Fiji. (2015). Nationally Determined Contributions. 45Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. 42Government of Fiji. (2014). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 46GGGI. (2018). Fundamental assessment report, Development of Fiji’s NDC Energy Sector Implementation Roadmap. 43Department of Energy. (2014b). Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All): Rapid Assessment and Gap Analysis. 42 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 43 Figure 10. Electricity providers to households. Fiji has the natural resources to make the electricity 4.1.3 Existing Policy, Institutional, and Regulatory Framework sector fully renewable and reduce its carbon footprint Fiji continues to seek alternative energy sources to supplement its heavy dependence “The NDP has an significantly. However, in order to make economy-wide emission reductions, deep decarbonisation policies on imported fossil fuels, with the goal of being fully reliant on renewable energy overall goal of a by 2030. The Electricity Act of 2017 provides for an independent regulator for the and strategies are required across all sectors. The electricity industry with powers to make regulations and grant licenses to ensure the resource efficient, transport sector (land, marine, and domestic aviation) efficient running of the electricity industry.47 The government’s reform of the electricity cost effective, and is the primary consumer of fossil fuels in Fiji. It will be imperative to electrify the transport sector using sector is on-going and includes restructuring of EFL and establishing the new environmentally electricity industry regulator – the Fijian Competition and Consumer Commission. renewable energy if a zero emission energy future is sustainable energy The Department of Energy (DoE) is responsible for energy policies and plans, energy envisaged. This is discussed under the High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios below and in sections efficiency and conservation, renewable energy (RE) research, and rural electrification. sector” 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4 of the LEDS on land transport, maritime The draft 2013 National Energy Policy (NEP) provides guidance on promoting access to transport, and domestic air transport, respectively. affordable and sustainable energy services to rural areas, grid-based electricity supply and renewable energy development, transport, petroleum, and biofuels, and energy

4.1.2 Emission Sources efficiency. The NDP has an overall goal of “a resource efficient, cost effective and environmentally Summary of Emission Sources sustainable energy sector.” Fiji has a target of 100% electrification by 2021 and The main emission sources are diesel and HFO has a rural electrification programme in place funded by the Fijian Government generators, household fuels (fuel wood and kerosene), and development partners. The target of reaching close to 100% renewable and LPG use in households, commercial, and industrial electricity by 2030 is stated in Fiji’s NDC and supported by the NDP and other policy sectors. It is assumed that LPG usage in tourism is also documents such as the Green Growth Framework. Detailed actions for exploration included in commercial and industrial data obtained and implementation of renewable energy sources are laid out in the Fiji NDC from the Third National Communication (TNC). Implementation Roadmap 2017-2030.48 The Fijian Government is supporting research and development in biofuels and biogas applications. The main policy documents for Type of Emissions the Fiji energy sector include: The National Energy Policy, 2013 (draft); Fiji’s First NDC, Although the GHGs emitted by the fuels under 2015; the Fiji NDC Implementation Roadmap, 2017; the Fiji Green Growth Framework, consideration are CO2, CH4, and NOx, CO2 is the 2014; and the NDP, 2017. dominant GHG for this sector.

4.1.4 Methodology Model and Methodology Used The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) tool was employed for modelling the four scenarios for the energy sector. LEAP software is utilized by a number of countries for integrated resource planning and GHG mitigation assessments and developing LEDS.49 A bottom-up approach is used in the demand structure which was divided into household, commercial, industrial, and streetlights components. Tourism has been included commercial and industrial demand. The base year for modelling is 2013 and end year is 2050. Default emission factors from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories were used for each emission source. 47http://www.parliament.gov.fj/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Act-13-Electricity.pdf 48Government of Fiji. (2017b). NDC Implementation Roadmap 2017-2030. 49https://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=introduction 44 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 45 The following describes the key data sources and assumptions for estimating various Table 4. Household efficiency measures. Adapted from MEPSL programme. sub-sector demands. It should be noted that, because the household section was “Refrigeration, disaggregated, it was not possible to show the effect of GDP on household demand. For commercial and industrial demands, the demands elasticity with respect to GDP lighting, air- Base year With Base year % End year MEPSL Price to load per efficiency household Year MEPSL % household energy (P/E) are not accurately known and, hence, future annual average growth rate (AAGR) was conditioning, TV, HH per kWh/HH/ with existing programme with efficient ratio from Demand cost (average), used based on the past trends. cooking, and other Product year year product start product MEPSL 2014 FJD Domestic 480 44053 75% Assume start in 2030 with 100% 0.2554 Assume average price to Commercial and Industrial Demand. Both electricity and LPG demand are considered uses have been Refrigerators 2014. household having be FJD 2000. For efficient within commercial demand and industrial demand in this LEDS. and freezers efficient product refrigerators it is about used in the demand FJD 2050. Lifetime is Households. The main input datasets used in developing this LEDS are the number of households and energy intensity of each fuel in demand. Using a bottom-up approach, structure for taken as 10 years. household demand is divided into urban and rural. Urban households were further households” Domestic lighting 301 243 100% 2015 2030 - 100% of households with

0.75 Assume each household has 5 lights. Normal light divided into electrified and non-electrified households, while rural households were efficient lighting lasts for 1 year while efficient light last up to 3 divided into grid electrified, off-grid electrified, and non-electrified. Refrigeration, years. One incandescent lighting, air-conditioning, TV, cooking, and other uses have been used in the demand bulb costs about FJD 2 structure for households. Household cooking is further divided into electric stoves, while efficient lamps cost around FJD 9. LPG stoves, kerosene stoves, open fire, wood stoves, and biogas stoves. Domestic Air 1,500 1,300 5% of urban 2020 2030 – 30% of 0.20 Normal air conditioners Transmission and Distribution. Using grid electricity production and sales data conditioners electrified have household with cost FJD 1500 with a available from the Fiji Bureau of Statistics (FBoS),50 transmission and distribution air conditioners air con have lifetime of 10 years while efficient product efficient air conditioners (T&D) losses are assumed to be 10%. 2050 – 100% cost around FJD 2,500 of households with a lifetime of 15 Electricity Generation. Grid electricity generation considers existing generators with aircon have years. (using both non-renewable and renewable sources of energy) with new additions efficient product based on Fiji’s NDC Roadmap until 2030, after which further capacity enhancements Domestic TVs 240 15055 90% of all grid 2020 2030 – all 0.10 Normal TVs cost around are proposed to meet additional future demand in line with data currently available electrified households have FJD 1000 with a lifetime households have efficient TV of 10 years with efficient regarding Fiji’s renewable energy resource options. TV TVs costing around FJD 2000 with lifetime of 15 Data Used, Data Sources, and Assumptions years Number of Households and Efficiency Measures. The 2017 preliminary households census survey data provided by FBoS was used for calculating household demand. The demand projections are as follows and these numbers are used in all four scenarios: • The overall number of households in Fiji in 2013 was 182,282. It is assumed that there were 4.75 persons in each household which is taken from 2007 census report.51 • The projected fraction of urban households are based on FBoS data: Year 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 % urban 52.98 55.57 57.37 58.97 60.51 62.01 63.46 64.93 • Assumptions for the energy efficiency measures are taken from reports by Fiji’s Energy Labelling and Minimum Energy Performance Standards for Appliances and Lighting (MEPSL) programme.52 It is further assumed that the Minimum Energy Performance Standard (MEPS) for refrigerators and freezers were implemented starting in 2012. For the other products’ efficiency, measures are assumed to be in place from 2015. Table 4 shows the domestic energy efficiency measures considered in the modelling. 50FBoS obtains data from EFL. 539% decrease by considering Table 17 in: GWA. (2014) Energy Labelling and Minimum Energy Performance Standards for Appliances 51FBoS. (2010). Fiji Facts and Figures as at July 2010. and Lighting in Fiji: Expanding the Coverage of the Program to Additional Products. 52GWA. (2014). Energy Labelling and Minimum Energy Performance Standards for Appliances and Lighting in Fiji: Expanding the 54This means that a 10% increase in efficiency would increase price by 2.5%. 55EnergyStar rating of EPA reports the most efficient TV, Samsung UN50J5500AF has energy consumption of 66.3 kWh/year. Coverage of the Program to Additional Products. Accessed 17th June 2018. Available at https://www.reinfofiji.com.fj 46 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 47 Household Demand. The LEDS draws on the following data was not available from the 2017 census at the Energy intensity of 61 kWh/household/year is assumed for solar lamps for non- assumptions for calculating household energy demand preparation of this LEDS. Annual LPG consumption is electrified households. “It makes a to address data gaps for energy intensity in households. estimated to be four cylinders per household, or around 50 kg LPG per annum per household. Average kerosene Commercial and Industrial. Electricity demand data was obtained from EFL and LPG significant It has been assumed that household refrigerators demand data was taken from Fiji’s TNC data. consume 480 kWh/year56 (in comparison, the EnergyStar consumption for cooking is assumed to be 140 litres/ difference in rating provided by the United States Environment household/year.62 For the commercial sector, it is assumed that grid electricity demand will grow at a rate of 2.6% per annum in the BAU Unconditional scenario. For the other three emissions if energy Protection Agency57 assumes household refrigeration Emission factors for LPG, kerosene, and biogas for scenarios, the annual growth rate, with implementation of increased energy efficiency intensive industries annual usage of around 500 kWh/household/year). cooking are obtained from IPCC 2006 emission factors Lighting energy consumption is estimated at 301 kWh datasets. For open fire stoves and wood stoves, IPCC measures, is assumed to be 2%. LPG demand is assumed to grow at a rate of 5% per are connected to annum in the Unconditional, Conditional, and High Ambition scenarios. For the Very per household, and 5% of all households in Fiji have tier 1 wood residential emission factors are used. For High Ambition scenario, LPG demand is assumed to increase at a rate of 5% annually the grid or not” air conditioners. For this LEDS, it is assumed that kerosene for lighting, the IPCC 2006 oil residential until the year 2020 and to decrease linearly to zero by 2040, as LPG-fuelled appliances these households are urban with an intensity of 1,500 emission factor is used. will be replaced by electric appliances. kWh/household based on the MEPSL 2014 report. It is For rural off-grid electrified households, Nand and assumed that televisions consume 240 kWh/household/ For the industrial sector, grid electricity demand is assumed to increase by a rate of Raturi63 report that each solar home system has three year in electrified households, based on the MEPSL 2014 2% annually for all scenarios. LPG demand is assumed to increase by a rate of 5% 9W DC lamps and one 7W DC LED lamp. This yields an report, and that electricity consumption for cooking is annually for Unconditional, Conditional, and High Ambition scenarios. For the Very approximate value of 49.64 kWh/household/year. As a 400 kWh/household/year.58 High Ambition scenario, LPG demand is assumed to increase at a rate of 5% growth result, the model assumes existing lamps consume 50 annually until 2020 and to decrease linearly to zero by 2040, as LPG-fuelled appliances Heltberg59 reports that an average rural household kWh in rural off-grid electrified households and efficient will be replaced by electric appliances. uses about 80 kg of firewood per month while urban lamps consume 40 kWh/household/year. households use 5-60 kg of firewood per month It is worth noting that it makes a significant difference in emissions if energy intensive For all other uses such as washing machines, depending on the income level. In the LEAP model industries are connected to the grid or not. For instance, Vatukoula Gold Mines PLC computers, laptops, phone charging, etc., in off-grid used for this LEDS, it is assumed that electrified urban (VGM) has been in operation for 75 years. The mine is located near Tavua and is not electrified households the LEDS assumes 50 kWh/ households use 32 kg of wood per month in open fires connected to the Viti Levu grid but is fully dependent on diesel generators on site. household/year. and 25 kg per month in wood stoves. Rural households These diesel generators are the primary source of energy for VGM and emit CO2, CH4, are assumed to use 70 kg of fuelwood per month in open Lighting in rural non-electrified households is provided and N2O from running 19 MW of diesel generators. The 2014 annual production is 80.4 fires and 50 kg per month in wood stoves. using kerosene, benzene, and solar lamps. These GWh from SPC data.64 Figure 11 below displays the emissions from VGM for the four households are assumed to be electrified by 2020, scenarios, and Figure 12 displays the total investments required to achieve long- Purohit et al60 report that typical energy usage per so the kerosene light demand is zero after 2020. The term deep decarbonisation for the scenarios. The grid-connection of the Vatukoula household per day for cooking is 12.13 MJ, and this Energy Use Survey reports spending of FJD 9.04/ mine alone has the potential to mitigate 55,000 tCO2 per year65 as the mine would value is used for biogas and solar cookers. For all other month/household on kerosene lighting, or around automatically switch from 100% diesel to the hydro, wind, and solar mix of the Viti electrical appliance consumption, the LEDS assumes FJD 108.5/year. Assuming a price of FJD 2.00/litre for Levu grid. As the grid moves to 100% renewable electricity all the emissions from the 500 kWh/household/year for urban grid electrified kerosene, annual consumption is estimated to be 54.2 electricity usage at the mine would be eliminated automatically, avoiding more than households, 500 kWh/household/year for rural grid litres/household. Benzene expenditure per month per 70,000 tCO2 per year. electrified households,61 and 50 kWh/household/year for household is reported to be FJD 9.90, or FJD 118.80 per off-grid electrified households. Generation. The amount of grid electricity generated in 2013 is based on EFL’s annual year. Assuming a price of FJD 2.00/litre for benzene, report for 2013 while the average availability factor for each of these generation Cooking fuel intensity for rural grid connected annual consumption is estimated to be 59.2 litres/ processes was calculated based on the installed capacity and production over 2005- households is assumed to be the same for urban grid- household. Energy intensity of cooking fuels in non- 2015. For technologies to be included in the future, values drawn from EFL and the connected households. The share of cooking fuel activity electrified households is assumed to be same as off-grid literature66 have been used. is based on 2007 census data since the disaggregated rural households. 56GWA. (2014). Energy Labelling and Minimum Energy Performance Standards for Appliances and Lighting in Fiji: Expanding the Coverage of the 64http://prdrse4all.spc.int/data/content/fiji-islands-sep-2014-oct-2015-vatukoula-gold-mines-power-generation-fuel-consumption Program to Additional Products. 65Government of Fiji. (2017b). NDC Implementation Roadmap. 57United States Environment Protection Agency. (2018). SEPA. ENERGY STAR Most Efficient 2018 — Medium, Large, and X-Large Refrigerators. https:// 66Taylor, M, Daniel K, Ilas A, So EY. (2015). Renewable power generation costs in 2014. Germany: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and www.energystar.gov/most-efficient/me-certified-refrigerators Patel, H. (2015). FEA’s strategies & plans and opportunities in Fiji’s renewable energy sector. Renewable Energy Investment Forum for Fiji. 58This value is assumed based on data collected informally using student questionnaires, as well as average values used by LEAP developers. 59Heltberg, R. (2003). Household Fuel And Energy Use In Developing Countries - A Multicountry Study. Accessed 1st May 2018. Available at http:// siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPSIA/Resources/490023-1120845825946/FuelUseMulticountryStudy_05.pdf. 60Purohit P., Kumar A., Rana S., Kandpal T. (2002). Using renewable energy technologies for domestic cooking in India: a methodology for potential estimation. 61Cooking fuel intensity is assumed to be same for grid-connected urban and rural households because it is assumed that each household will cook for the same amount of time with the same kind of technologies. 62Overall kerosene consumption will change depending on the number of households using this fuel. Nevertheless, this LEDS assumes that its intensity remains the same. See Isley, C.F., P.F. Nelson, and M.P. Taylor. (2016). Managing air quality in Suva, Fiji. European Journal of Sustainable Development. 5 (4): 242-254. https://research-management.mq.edu.au/ws/portalfiles/portal/16812097/mq-57690-Publisher+version+%28open+access%29.pdf 63Nand R, Raturi A. (2015). Rural Electrification Initiatives in Fiji – A Case Study of Solar Home Systems. Solar World Congress 2015. Daegu, Korea: International Solar Energy Society. 48 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 49 Limitations and Uncertainties the need to raise awareness when introducing new 4.1.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios One of the main limitations of the modelling was that the cooking and cookstove technologies, the possibility of “The share of making the ambitious scenarios even more ambitious, Base Year (BY) LEAP model does not yet have a module to account for the value of a carbon tax, the need for financing schemes urban electrified grid storage as large-scale use of storage on utility grids The base year used for the energy sector, excluding transport, is 2013 as the NDC is a relatively recent phenomenon. This was addressed to support communities with transition, and the need to Implementation Roadmap also starts from this year. In addition, most of the input data households with in three ways: incorporate biofuels into the scenarios. Among the main were available for this year. air conditioning issues raised during the Third National Stakeholder • The solar availability curve has been modified to Consultation Workshop on the 27th of August, 2018 BAU Unconditional Scenario systems is expected incorporate battery storage and assumes an increase included the transition for households towards electric In the unconditional BAU scenario, no specific international financing support is to increase from in the cost of solar PV; cooking, particularly for rural households which would expected, and Fiji will bear the cost of all applicable mitigation actions. 5% in 2020 to • The capacity credit of wind farms has been increased transition from wood to kerosene and LPG to electric 20% by 2050” to reflect firmer capacity and the cost of wind farms stoves, and how agricultural offsets contribute to For Households, the number is expected to grow based on the population growth rate were increased; and electricity demands. projected by FBoS (0.38%/annum). Other elements in household demand structure are described as follows: • The system load curve has been adjusted to show overall grid storage (pumped hydro storage). • Non-electrified households are all expected to be electrified by 2020. While urban households would be electrified through the EFL grid, rural households would be Considering the assumptions stated above and the electrified using off-grid electrification measures. quality of data used, the model applies a sector-wide uncertainty of +/- 10% (as suggested in the TNC). • Urban electrified households are expected to increase adoption of refrigeration from 75% in 2014 to 80% in 2030 and to 90% by 2050. Stakeholder Consultation Process • For rural grid-electrified households, the adoption of refrigeration is expected to Key stakeholders focusing on electricity generation increase from 66% in 2014 to 70% in 2030 and to 80% in 2050. and other (non-transport-related) energy use • The share of urban electrified households with air conditioning systems is expected who participated in the stakeholder consultation to increase from 5% in 2020 to 20% by 2050. workshops included: officials from the Department of Energy, IRENA, Reserve Bank of Fiji, Sunergise, EFL, • With respect to cooking fuels, open fire and wood stoves are expected to be phased development partners, industry representatives, and out with electric stoves in urban electrified households. For rural grid-electrified regional climate change-focused NGOs, among others. households, open fire usage is expected to drop to zero by 2030 and be replaced In addition to the stakeholder workshops, a number with LPG and electric stoves. For rural off-grid electrified households, from 69.6% of face-to-face consultations were held with EFL, the of households using open fire, it decreases to 50% of households in 2030; for Department of Energy, the Department of Environment, kerosene stoves, 9% of households are using in 2013 which increases to 20% by FBoS, the Department of Transport Planning, the 2030; and LPG stoves usage is expected to increase from 8% in 2013 to 10%67 by Ministry of Sugar, and the Fiji Sugar Corporation. 2030. To promote demand-side management, energy efficiency measures are only in place for refrigerators and freezers, TV, lights, and air conditioners as shown As part of the visioning exercise during the First National in Table 4. Only grid-connected households are considered in the unconditional Stakeholder Consultation Workshop on the 23rd of May, scenario since off-grid households may not have larger electrical appliances, like 2018, stakeholders described two possible visions: those found in grid-connected households. (1) 100% sustainable, resource efficient, inclusive, affordable, resilient energy access to all Fijians; and (2) There are no significant efficiency measures affecting commercial and industrial a resource efficient, cost effective, and environmentally sectors under this scenario. For commercial demand, the annual growth rate of sustainable energy sector for all Fijians. The Second electricity is estimated as 2.6% with 349 GWh of electricity consumed in 2013. The National Stakeholder Consultation Workshop for annual growth rate for LPG is estimated as 5% with 7,218 metric tonnes consumed in electricity and other (non-transport) energy took place 2013. For industrial demand, the annual growth rate for electricity is estimated as 2% on the 28th of June, 2018 to present the initial results of with 202 GWh consumed in 2013. The annual growth rate for LPG is estimated as 5% the LEDS analysis and scenario development. During with 3,573 metric tonnes consumed in 2013. that session, stakeholders discussed the future costs of For streetlights, the annual growth rate for electricity demand is estimated as 0.25%. clean energy technologies (likely to go down), whether For both land and maritime transport, the demand data is generated by the modelling the LEDS may slow down or increase economic growth, for each respective sector (sections 4.2 and 4.3). The small increase is noted because of affordability of LPG in remote islands. 67 50 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 51 Overall demand for the unconditional scenario is shown in Figure 11 below. The transport sector demand is After taking into account some new additions of hydro, biomass and solar between 2013 (the baseline year) and introduced from 2025 and accelerates from 2030 onwards due to electric vehicles. 2018, new IDO and new HFO generators will have to be added to meet the demand, particularly from 2030 onwards, as shown in Figures 12 and 13 below69 because under a BAU unconditional scenario sufficient financing will not be Figure 11. Energy Demand in GWh: Unconditional scenario. available for the solar energy generation capacity required to cover all the increasing demand. Figure 12. Grid Electricity Generation in GWh: Unconditional scenario. With respect to on-grid generation, the unconditional In this scenario, solar PV is considered the only BAU scenario assumes no grid storage and existing renewable technology used for additional generation technologies include: Industrial Diesel Oil (IDO) and capacity from 2018 onwards as the cost of solar PV Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) generators, biomass, wind farms, has fallen by almost 70% between 2010 and 201868 and hydropower, Grid-connected PV (GCPV), Fiji Sugar it would be the most competitive option for Fiji under Corporation (FSC), and Tropik Wood. New solar PV is current circumstances. expected to be added based on targets set in the NDC Implementation Roadmap, as well as new IDO and HFO to further supplement supply when needed post 2030 and up to 2050. 68REN21. (2018). Renewables 2018: Global Status Report. Accessed on 19th June 2018. Available at http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/ 69These factors were added endogenously into the LEAP model; this means that the year is not specified in advance, and generation technology is added uploads/2018/06/17-8652_GSR2018_FullReport_web_-1.pdf. when the need arises by the model. 52 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 53 Figure 13. Unconditional scenario capacity added in MW. Table 5. BAU Unconditional scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Generation - On-Grid IDO CO2 117,445 88,713 53,163 31,870 56,252 121,940 218,831 321,474 446,795 CH4 100 75 45 27 48 104 186 273 380 N2O 295 223 134 80 141 306 549 807 1,122 HFO CO2 154,822 58,830 34,139 19,980 36,515 92,793 135,803 224,702 337,669 CH4 126 48 28 16 30 76 111 183 275 N2O 372 141 82 48 88 223 326 540 811 Subtotal 273,160 148,031 87,591 52,022 93,073 215,441 355,806 547,979 787,052 Electricity Generation - Off-Grid Vatukoula Gold Mine CO2 71,900 66,300 69,700 73,200 77,000 80,800 84,900 89,100 93,600 CH4 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 N2O 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Off-Grid Resorts CO2 8,706 3,770 3,801 4,120 4,475 4,857 5,269 5,725 6,212 CH4 8 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 N2O 22 10 10 11 11 12 14 15 16 Subtotal 80,936 70,383 73,814 77,635 81,790 85,973 90,488 95,145 100,133 Industrial Since the renewable energy sources alone will not be in 2020, to 2.0 MW in 2030, and 1.0 MW in 2040.70 The LPG CO2 10,667 11,761 15,010 19,157 24,449 31,204 39,826 50,829 64,872 sufficient to fulfil the demand posed by the transport scenario also reflects the addition of new solar home CH4 4 4 5 6 8 10 13 17 22 sector as electric vehicles (EV) are introduced from 2030 systems and new solar PV hybrid systems (e.g., solar PV, N2O 11 12 15 19 24 31 40 50 64 along with some electric outboard motors (see also diesel, with battery storage). Subtotal 10,681 11,776 15,030 19,182 24,482 31,246 39,878 50,896 64,958 sections 4.2 and 4.3 on land and maritime transport The Vatukoula mine is also assumed to operate as Commercial respectively), the unconditional scenario includes new normal and demand is assumed to grow at 1% per IDO and HFO generators as shown in Figure 13 above. LPG CO2 21,546 23,755 30,318 38,694 49,384 63,028 80,442 102,667 131,031 annum and there are no energy efficiency measures CH4 36 40 50 64 82 105 134 171 218 With respect to off-grid generation, the unconditional adopted. Generation at the mine is assumed to be from N2O 11 12 15 19 24 31 40 50 64 scenario incorporates the existing technologies of existing diesel generators, to be gradually replaced in solar home systems and diesel generators. Under this the future with new diesel generators. Subtotal 21,593 23,806 30,383 38,777 49,491 63,164 80,615 102,888 131,314 scenario, it is assumed that solar home systems will Household Table 5 shows the emissions from on-grid and off-grid remain, but diesel generators will be retired and scaled Biogas CO2 433 448 490 522 552 580 606 631 653 energy (electricity and cooking fuels) sector. down from 5.5 MW in current (2013) capacity to 3.0 MW CH4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kerosene CO2 15,034 15,088 15,360 16,543 17,678 18,343 18,945 19,460 19,900 CH4 44 44 45 48 52 54 55 57 58 N2O 39 39 40 43 46 47 49 50 51 LPG CO2 9,239 9,713 10,968 12,126 13,247 13,883 14,478 15,010 15,495 CH4 15 16 18 20 22 23 24 25 26 N2O 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 benzene CO2 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wood CH4 3,281 3,157 2,824 2,348 1,848 1,849 1,840 1,821 1,790 N2O 646 621 556 462 364 364 362 358 352 Subtotal 28,751 29,143 30,307 32,118 33,816 35,152 36,369 37,421 38,335 70Based on conversation with the Department of Energy, July 2018. Total CO2e 415,121 283,138 237,124 219,734 282,652 430,975 603,157 834,329 1,121,791 54 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 55 Figure 14. Unconditional scenario – Electricity and Other Energy. Figure 15. Demand (GWh) under Conditional scenario. With respect to on-grid generation, this scenario incorporates grid storage and is based on the use of existing technologies including: IDO and HFO generators, wind farms, hydropower, GCPV, FSC, and Tropik Wood. Figure BAU Conditional Scenario 16 below shows the years where new solar PV, hydropower, and biomass are added, as indicated by the NDC In the conditional BAU scenario, it is expected that Fiji on-grid electricity demand is expected to increase by Implementation Roadmap, as well as additional solar, wind, new IDO, new HFO, and geothermal. will receive international financing support. For demand, only 2.0% as compared to 2.6% in the BAU Unconditional the household sector will have the same demand scenario. It must be noted that EFL uses its own Figure 16. Generation Technologies in GWh under Conditional scenario. structure and efficiency measures as described in definition of commercial and industrial consumers unconditional scenario. based on the power consumption of each customer. Efficiency measures are also anticipated to be As shown in the Figure 15, as a result of the rapid introduced in the commercial sectors (including increase of EVs starting in 2030, the electricity demand tourism), such as through efficient lighting, ACs, for land transport is going to rise steeply and there will freezers, and refrigerators, and other MEPSL measures be a need for significant additional generation capacity are expected to reduce the growth in demand by 0.6% to address this demand. per annum. Hence, in the BAU Conditional scenario, 56 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 57 Figure 17. Conditional scenario capacity added in MW. Table 6. BAU Conditional Scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Generation - On-Grid IDO CO2 117,445 86,381 42,837 1,816 2,418 21,933 47,916 35,153 53,875 CH4 100 73 36 2 2 19 41 30 46 N2O 295 217 108 5 6 55 120 88 135 HFO CO2 154,822 57,251 27,271 0 1,064 10,736 36,624 29,069 47,053 CH4 126 47 22 0 1 9 30 24 38 N2O 372 138 66 0 3 26 88 70 113 Biogas CO2 0 0 862 526 760 805 831 823 825 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WTE power plant CH4 0 0 0 91 132 139 144 142 143 N2O 0 0 0 179 259 274 283 280 281 Subtotal 273,160 144,107 71,203 2,619 4,645 33,997 86,078 65,681 102,510 Electricity Generation - Off-Grid Vatukoula Gold Mine CO2 71,900 66,000 68,700 71,500 74,400 77,400 79,900 83,100 85,700 CH4 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 N2O 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Regarding off-grid generation, the conditional BAU scenario is based on the continued use of existing technologies, Off-Grid Resorts CO2 8,706 2,953 2,405 2,022 1,924 1,764 1,651 1,561 1,300 namely solar home systems and diesel generators. The diesel generators are gradually retired from 5.5 MW capacity CH4 8 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 in 2013, to 3 MW in 2020, to 1 MW in 2030, and 0 MW in 2040. The scenario also envisions the addition of new N2O 22 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 energy generation in the form of new solar home systems and new solar PV hybrid systems (solar PV and diesel Subtotal 80,936 69,264 71,413 73,829 76,631 79,471 81,856 84,966 87,304 with battery storage). The Vatukoula mine is assumed to adopt new energy efficiency measures. Energy demand is Industrial assumed to grow at 0.8% per annum giving rise to almost a 7% reduction in energy demand by 2050 compared with LPG CO2 10,667 11,761 15,010 19,157 24,449 31,204 39,826 50,829 64,872 the BAU Unconditional scenario. Generation at the mine is assumed to be from existing diesel generators, to be gradually replaced in the future with new solar PV and new diesel generators. Table 6 shows the projected emissions CH4 4 4 5 6 8 10 13 17 22 from on-grid and off-grid energy (electricity and cooking fuels). N2O 5 6 7 9 12 15 20 25 32 Subtotal 10,676 11,770 15,022 19,173 24,470 31,230 39,858 50,871 64,925 Commercial LPG CO2 21,546 23,755 30,318 38,694 49,384 63,028 80,442 102,667 131,031 CH4 36 40 50 64 82 105 134 171 218 N2O 11 12 15 19 24 31 40 50 64 Subtotal 21,593 23,806 30,383 38,777 49,491 63,164 80,615 102,888 131,314 Household Biogas CO2 433 448 490 522 552 580 606 631 653 CH4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kerosene CO2 15,034 15,088 15,360 16,543 17,678 18,343 18,945 19,460 19,900 CH4 44 44 45 48 52 54 55 57 58 N2O 39 39 40 43 46 47 49 50 51 LPG CO2 9,239 10,028 12,223 14,293 16,334 16,971 17,551 18,051 18,484 CH4 15 17 20 24 27 28 29 30 31 N2O 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 58 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 59 Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Figure 19. Demand (GWh) under High Ambition scenario. Household (Continued) Benzene CO2 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wood CH4 3,281 2,968 2,072 1,050 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 646 584 408 207 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 28,751 29,233 30,665 32,737 34,697 36,033 37,246 38,289 39,189 Total CO2e 415,116 278,180 218,687 167,135 189,934 243,896 325,654 342,695 425,242 Table 6 shows that the GHG emissions will decline and then rise as new fossil fuel-based technologies are added in order to fulfil the increasing demand from the transport sector. Figure 18. BAU Conditional scenario – Electricity and Other Energy. To further reduce emissions, this scenario envisions Expression of Interest for conducting a resistivity survey adoption of higher levels of renewable energy generation for a geothermal energy project in Fiji,73 which is a capacity. step forward. For solar PV, it is expected that GCPV rooftop systems, including for domestic, government, To reduce emissions from on-grid generation, the LEDS commercial, and industrial buildings, will be widespread envisions using considerable grid storage to integrate in this scenario as well. The Vatukoula mine is assumed large components of intermittent resources like solar to adopt new energy efficiency measures. Energy and wind. The generation mix will be expanded to demand is assumed to grow at 0.6% per annum giving include: new solar PV, hydropower, and biomass (in rise to almost a 14% reduction in energy demand by accordance with the Fiji NDC Implementation Roadmap), 2050 compared with the BAU Unconditional scenario. as well as additional new solar, wind, and geothermal Generation at the mine is assumed to be from existing – as detailed in Table 7. To take this effort further, it will diesel generators that will be retired, starting from the be necessary for Fiji to explore other renewable energy 19 MW in capacity in 2013, reduced to 18 MW by 2025, technologies, like wave and tidal energy. 15 MW by 2030, 12 MW by 2040, and 9 MW by 2050. According to the available literature,71 72 there is Capacity will otherwise be replaced with new solar PV, High Ambition Scenario excellent potential for geothermal energy development new geothermal, and new wind technologies. In the High Ambition scenario, the main objective for 2013. This leads to 20% demand reduction by 2050, in Fiji. However, developing this resource would electricity generation is to reduce emissions to near compared to the BAU Unconditional scenario. In require extensive exploratory work at significant zero. This requires further incorporation of renewable addition, the annual growth rate for LPG is assumed to expense. The World Bank has recently requested an energy-based measures, compared to the BAU be 5% based on 7,218 metric tonnes used in 2013. For Conditional scenario. For demand, energy efficiency industrial demand, the annual growth rate for electricity measures are same as for the BAU Conditional scenario, demand is assumed to be 1.7%, which leads to 10% except that commercial and industrial electricity reduction in demand by 2050, when compared to BAU demand will increase. For commercial demand, the Unconditional scenario, and the annual growth rate for annual growth rate is assumed to be 2% (more efficient LPG is assumed to be 5% based on 3,573 metric tonnes systems) based on 349 GWh electricity generated in used in 2013. 71McCoy West et al. (2011). Proceedings, Thirty-Sixth Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering. 72http://fijisun.com.fj/2013/04/06/ensuring-a-sustainable-energy-hard-talk/ 73http://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/request-for-eoi-world-bank-resistivity-survey-for-geothermal-project-in-fiji-pacific/ 60 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 61 Figure 20. Generation Technologies in GWh for on-grid generation under High Ambition scenario. Table 7 shows projected emissions from on-grid and off-grid electricity generation for urban and rural households and other sectors that are connected to the electricity grid. As illustrated, despite significant renewable energy development, Fiji’s electricity sector will still generate a significant amount of GHG emissions even in the High Ambition scenario. Table 7. High Ambition Scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) High Ambition Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Generation - On-Grid IDO CO2 117,445 85,707 40,630 1,816 8,737 2,372 306 300 293 CH4 100 73 35 2 7 2 0 0 0 N2O 295 215 102 5 22 6 1 1 1 HFO CO2 154,822 56,796 25,804 0 5,264 1,034 0 0 0 CH4 126 46 21 0 4 1 0 0 0 N2O 372 136 62 0 13 2 0 0 0 Biogas CO2 0 0 861 539 810 718 649 601 607 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WTE power plant CH4 0 0 0 93 140 124 112 104 105 N2O 0 0 0 184 276 245 221 205 207 Subtotal 273,160 142,974 67,516 2,639 15,275 4,505 1,290 1,211 1,213 Electricity Generation - Off-Grid Figure 21. New capacity added in MW in High Ambition scenario. Vatukoula Gold Mine CO2 71,900 65,800 67,800 69,800 46,400 48,600 24,900 27,200 3,600 CH4 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 200 200 200 200 100 100 100 100 0 Off-Grid Resorts CO2 8,706 1,665 1,559 1,289 489 440 111 88 21 CH4 8 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 22 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 Subtotal 80,936 67,770 69,664 71,393 46,990 49,141 25,111 27,388 3,621 Industrial LPG CO2 10,667 11,761 15,010 19,157 24,449 31,204 39,826 50,829 64,872 CH4 4 4 5 6 8 10 13 17 22 N2O 5 6 7 9 12 15 20 25 32 Subtotal 10,676 11,770 15,022 19,173 24,470 31,230 39,858 50,871 64,925 Commercial LPG CO2 21,546 23,755 30,318 38,694 49,384 63,028 80,442 102,667 131,031 CH4 36 40 50 64 82 105 134 171 218 N2O 11 12 15 19 24 31 40 50 64 Subtotal 21,593 23,806 30,383 38,777 49,491 63,164 80,615 102,888 131,314 62 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 63 High Ambition Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Figure 23. Demand (GWh) under Very High Ambition scenario. Household (Note the high electrification of transport sector) Biogas CO2 433 448 490 522 552 580 606 631 653 CH4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kerosene CO2 15,034 15,088 15,360 16,543 17,678 18,343 18,945 19,460 19,900 CH4 44 44 45 48 52 54 55 57 58 N2O 39 39 40 43 46 47 49 50 51 LPG CO2 9,239 10,028 12,223 14,293 16,334 16,971 17,551 18,051 18,484 CH4 15 17 20 24 27 28 29 30 31 N2O 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 benzene CO2 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wood CH4 3,281 2,968 2,072 1,050 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 646 584 408 207 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 28,751 29,233 30,665 32,737 34,697 36,033 37,246 38,289 39,189 Total CO2e 415,116 275,553 213,250 164,719 170,922 184,073 184,121 220,646 240,262 Regarding on-grid generation, the Very High Ambition New hydropower and biomass will be added consistent scenario incorporates grid storage by changing the with the NDC Implementation Roadmap and the amount Figure 22. High Ambition scenario – Electricity and other Energy. system load curve. The storage technologies would of investment in solar PV, wind power, and geothermal include a combination of batteries and pumped-hydro will go considerably beyond the NDC Implementation systems with a total of an estimated 3.8 MWh per MW of Roadmap (see Table 8). A large number of proposed PV installed.74 GCPV systems will be installed on suitable building rooftops and also on water reservoirs using floating The scenario envisions continued use of existing systems. Wind turbines will be installed at identified technologies including: IDO and HFO generators, wind onshore and offshore locations. power, hydropower, GCPV, and FSC and Tropik Wood. Very High Ambition Scenario Under the Very High Ambition scenario, Fiji anticipates demand by 2050, compared to the BAU Unconditional achieving net zero emissions from the energy sector. scenario. This scenario also assumes replacing all LPG For this to happen, the whole cooking fuel sub-sector technologies with electric technologies. will need to be electrified, including the industrial and With respect to industrial demand, annual growth rate commercial operations currently utilizing LPG. With for electricity demand is assumed to be 1.5%. This will respect to commercial demand, Fiji assumes an annual lead to a further 16% reduction in demand by 2050, growth rate of 2%. This will lead to a 20% reduction in compared to BAU Unconditional scenario. 74A feasibility study will be required to confirm the exact capacity of batteries and pumped hydro systems required. 64 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 65 Figure 24. Generation Technologies in GWh for on-grid generation under Very High Ambition scenario. With respect to off-grid generation, the Very High Ambition scenario for Fiji will expand the use of solar home systems and introduce new solar PV hybrid systems (solar PV, diesel with battery storage), but gradually phase out diesel generators from 5.5 MW in 2013 to 3 MW in 2020, to 1 MW in 2030, and down to 0 MW in 2040. The Vatukoula mine is assumed to adopt new energy efficiency measures. Energy demand is assumed to grow at 0.4% per annum giving rise to almost a 20% reduction in energy demand by 2050 compared with the BAU Unconditional scenario. Generation at the mine is assumed to be from existing diesel generators that will be retired, starting from the 19 MW in capacity in 2013, reduced to 18 MW by 2025, 12 MW by 2030, 9 MW by 2040, and 0 MW by 2050. Capacity will otherwise be replaced with new solar PV, new geothermal, and new wind technologies. Table 8 below shows the emissions from on-grid and off-grid energy for urban and rural households and other sectors that are connected to the electricity grid. Due to high levels of renewable energy investment, GHG emissions will be almost negligible. Table 8. Very High Ambition scenario for Electricity Generation and Other Energy Use. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Very High Ambition Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Generation - On-Grid IDO CO2 117,445 85,259 39,267 1,816 2,462 1,027 717 912 1,095 CH4 100 73 33 2 2 1 1 1 1 N2O 295 214 99 5 6 3 2 2 3 HFO CO2 154,822 56,493 24,898 0 1,093 0 0 0 0 CH4 126 46 20 0 1 0 0 0 0 Figure 25. Very High Ambition scenario capacity added N2O 372 136 60 0 3 0 0 0 0 (MW). Biogas CO2 0 0 860 663 726 633 575 547 547 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WTE power plant CH4 0 0 0 115 126 109 100 95 95 N2O 0 0 0 226 247 215 196 186 186 Subtotal 273,160 142,221 65,239 2,827 4,666 1,988 1,591 1,743 1,927 Electricity Generation - Off-Grid Vatukoula Gold Mine CO2 71,900 65,500 66,800 68,200 39,100 40,500 10,900 12,400 0 CH4 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 200 200 200 200 100 100 0 0 0 Off-Grid Resorts CO2 8,706 1,896 1,673 578 152 26 0 0 0 CH4 8 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 22 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 80,936 67,703 68,778 69,080 39,352 40,626 10,900 12,400 0 Industrial LPG CO2 10,667 11,477 13,501 10,126 6,750 3,375 0 0 0 CH4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N2O 5 6 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 Subtotal 10,676 11,486 13,512 10,134 6,756 3,378 0 0 0 Commercial LPG CO2 21,546 24,052 30,318 22,738 15,159 7,579 0 0 0 CH4 36 40 50 38 25 13 0 0 0 N2O 11 12 15 11 7 4 0 0 0 Subtotal 21,593 24,104 30,383 22,787 15,192 7,596 0 0 0 66 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 67 Very High Ambition Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Figure 27. Renewable energy contribution to electricity generation under all four scenarios. Household Biogas CO2 433 448 490 522 552 609 665 717 766 CH4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kerosene CO2 15,034 15,088 15,360 16,543 17,678 13,757 9,472 4,865 0 CH4 44 44 45 48 52 40 28 14 0 N2O 39 39 40 43 46 36 25 13 0 LPG CO2 9,239 10,028 12,223 14,293 16,334 12,728 8,776 4,513 0 CH4 15 17 20 24 27 21 15 8 0 N2O 5 5 6 7 8 6 4 2 0 Benzene CO2 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wood CH4 3,281 2,968 2,072 1,050 0 0 0 0 0 N2O 646 584 408 207 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 28,751 29,233 30,665 32,737 34,697 27,200 18,986 10,133 768 Total CO2e 415,116 274,747 208,577 137,565 100,663 80,788 31,476 24,276 2,695 Figure 26. Very High Ambition scenario – Electricity and Other Energy. Figure 27 shows the share of renewable energy sources under all four scenarios. It shows that under BAU Unconditional scenario, in the absence of additional financing, the proportion of renewable energy will drop to less than 60% of total generation if the transport sector is electrified. Comparison of Scenarios Figure 28 shows total emission reductions under all four scenarios. It shows that the interventions outlined in the Very High Ambition scenario will be required to make Fiji’s energy sector fully renewable and reduce emissions to almost zero. Note, all electricity generation (including for transport sector) related emissions are present in Figure 28. For purposes of this LEDS, it is important to note that emissions from the burning of biomass are assumed to be carbon neutral. Figure 28. Emissions under various scenarios for on-grid electricity generation. 68 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 69

4.1.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High-Level Costing Figure 29. Cumulative investment costs for on-grid generation capacity addition. Table 9 summarizes the necessary installed capacity of various generation technologies under the four scenarios and Figure 29 presents the corresponding approximate investment costs for each. Under the BAU Unconditional scenario, which is based on lower renewable energy capacity, the total cost of investment is estimated at about USD 1.4 billion. This increases to USD 4.193 billion under the BAU Conditional scenario, whereas USD 5.386 billion is required for a High Ambition scenario and USD 9.211 billion for a Very High Ambition scenario. The costs of different technologies are taken directly from the NDC Implementation Roadmap as well as from IRENA.75 It should be recognized that energy storage costs in the future are uncertain. The costs are currently on a downward curve and, should this continue, then costs for the High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenario could change significantly in the future. The newly added electricity generators are essential for decarbonising the transport sectors and this adds significantly to the investment cost for the electricity sector. All costs are high-level estimates and specific projects will require feasibility studies to define detailed design and costs which may vary from the estimates below, particularly for technologies new to Fiji, for example for pumped hydro. Table 9. Summary of total installed capacity for different scenarios for on-grid generation. (in MW) Very High Ambition High Ambition Conditional Unconditional New Biogas plant Vuda 1.0 1.0 1 0.0. New Biomass Plant 256.0 166.0 136.0 22.0 New WTE plant 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 New Solar PV 522.8 322.8 272.8 222.8 New hydro 434.7 284.7 234.7 0.7 New FSC 90.0 90.0 18.0 0.0 Table 10. Additional capacity and investment required for off-grid rural households under each scenario. New geothermal 350.0 150.0 52.0 0.0 BAU Unconditional BAU Conditional High Ambition Very High Ambition New wind 350.0 200.0 150.0 0.0 New solar home systems New HFO 0.0 0.0 105.0 105.0 1.51 1.708 1.708 4.676 (MW) New IDO 2.0 2.0 107.0 142.0 Solar PV 9.35 10.54 10.54 28.56 Total 2016.5 1226.5 1086.5 592.5 hybrid (MW) Total Investments (USD 29.8 33.6 33.6 91.2 Figure 29 provides total estimated cumulative investment costs for all types of generation for each scenario. million) Between 2016 and 2050, total investment in additional electricity generation capacity will range from USD 1.4 billion Under all scenarios, it is recommended to review, update (as necessary), and endorse the national energy policy, and USD 4.2 billion for BAU Unconditional and Conditional scenarios, respectively, to as much as USD 5.4 billion and thus strengthening the policy framework which will provide the basis for the actions below. USD 9.2 billion under High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios, respectively. Table 10 presents the technology capacity and corresponding approximate investment costs for the off-grid sub- sector. The total investment for the off-grid sector, depending on the scenario, varies between USD 29.8 and 91.2 million. 75Taylor M, Daniel K, Ilas A, So EY. (2015). Renewable power generation costs in 2014. Germany: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). 70 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 71 Under the BAU Unconditional scenario: for both on-grid and off-grid solar systems to meet Under the Very High Ambition scenario: • 22 MW of biomass power and 223 MW of solar PV is climate resilience needs, amongst other technical • All grid-connected households use electric stoves by 2050; “Under the Very considerations; and installed by 2050; • 522 MW solar PV with storage (including extensive solar rooftop), 435 MW High Ambition • 0.7 MW of new hydro with 105 MW new HFO and 142 • Capacity building needs for renewable energy hydropower, scenario 522 MW development and smart grids will be continuously MW IDO are installed to satisfy increased demand; and addressed. 10 MW WTE and 256 MW biomass power is installed by 2050; solar PV with • Open fire cooking is completely replaced with LPG, • Vehicle to grid (V2G)78 technology implemented to support the grid starting from storage including Under the BAU Conditional scenario: kerosene, and electric stoves by 2030. 2040; • 272 MW solar PV with storage (including rooftop extensive rooftop The following are considered priority actions in • 350 MW geothermal (and ocean energy) and 350 MW wind (on and offshore) is Fiji’s energy sector towards achieving low emission solar), 136 MW biomass generation, 52 MW installed from 2028 onwards; solar is installed geothermal capacity, and 150 MW wind power are development in the next three scenarios. installed by 2050, including smaller installations • 100% renewable energy generation provides grid electricity for domestic, by 2050” Under all three scenarios: for WTE (10 MW – Naboro Landfill and Kinoya commercial, and industrial use as well as electricity for land transport (EVs), some marine transport, and some electric planes; • Energy efficiency measures76 are implemented wastewater treatment plant) and biogas (1 MW), and economy-wide including: initial efforts are undertaken to develop ocean energy • All off-grid households use electric stoves by 2050; and namely tidal power, wave energy and ocean thermal • Full implementation of Minimum Energy energy conversion (OTEC); • By 2040, all off-grid resorts are using 10 MW solar PV and 0.5 MW wind power for Performance Standards and Labelling; their electricity requirements. • For off-grid locations, use of wood fuel for cooking • Review, assessment, and revision of the is eliminated in all households by 2030; In order to achieve the high levels of renewable energy capacity envisaged, a concerted national codes and standards for buildings77 effort is needed in the area of resource assessment, especially for geothermal and and industry; • All diesel generators (5.5 MW at present) in off-grid wind energy. Geothermal exploration is expensive (on average USD 4 million/MW) and locations will be replaced with solar PV with storage Fiji will surely require external financing. Other equally expensive renewable energy • Adoption of ISO 50001:2011 – Energy by 2040, including at off-grid resorts. resources, like wave energy, tidal energy, and OTEC, will also be investigated. As management in the business community; and Under the High Ambition scenario: technologies for harnessing ocean energy become more economical and efficient, • Review of budgeting processes and ocean energy can play a role in future energy scenarios for Fiji. procurement in the public sector to promote • All grid-connected households use electric stoves by 2050; Large increases in solar power capacity will require a significant amount of land79 energy efficiency, adoption of ISO 50001:2011 for installing PV panels. Combining rooftop systems with floating PV systems on – Energy management and energy efficiency • 322 MW solar PV (including extensive rooftop solar) reservoirs can reduce the need for land, which can otherwise be dedicated to AFOLU- demonstration projects for public buildings. with storage and 200 MW wind power is on the grid based mitigation (see section 4.5). However, feasibility studies are needed to define the • A centralized renewable energy resource database by 2050; reservoir area that could be used and the cost. Provision of adequate storage, in the is launched, regularly updated, and made available • 285 MW new hydropower, 166 MW biomass power, 10 form of batteries and pumped hydro, will be crucial in order to integrate large amounts to investors; MW W2E and 150 MW geothermal capacity is installed, of intermittent power. With the introduction of electric vehicles, deploying V2G systems • Grid-connected and off-grid solar PV guidelines plus some ocean power at feasible sites; and can also help ensure grid stability while providing income to vehicle owners. and regulations are established and enforced, • All diesel generators (5.5 MW at present) in off-grid including FiT or Net metering mechanisms – this locations will be replaced with solar PV with storage includes review of design and installation standards by 2040, including at off-grid resorts. 76Success implementation of the energy efficiency measures will require significant data collection (for all energy sectors) in order to monitor the V2G technology makes use of electric vehicle batteries to stabilize the grid. 78 effectiveness of the measures. Assuming a rule-of-thumb number of 10 m2/kW, the PV installations will require about 5 km2 of combined land/water reservoir/rooftop area. 79 77In alignment with Fiji’s mitigation and adaptation objectives, the new building code needs to make distinctions between and be tailored to suit rural, outer-island, and urban contexts ensuring that implementation and enforcement of the codes is appropriate. Enforcement of Fiji’s building codes for public and private sector premises can ensure that disaster risk reduction, energy efficiency, and climate change adaptation benefits are gained. 72 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 73

4.2 LAND TRANSPORT

4.2.1 Overview This section examines the land transport component of Fiji’s LEDS. Land transport in Fiji is mainly composed of road vehicles. Passenger and freight rail services do not “The number of exist, with the exception of old rail transport of sugarcane from farms to sugar mills used on a limited basis. There are also very few motorbikes. vehicles in Fiji is 117,561 in 2017, According to FBoS, the number of vehicles in Fiji is 117,561 in 2017, 84,558 of which are private cars, 6,190 taxis, 2,444 buses (including minibuses as well as larger buses 84,558 or 71% of of varying sizes), and 18,397 goods vehicles (including light and heavy goods vehicles which are private such as vans, trucks, pick-ups, and special purpose vehicles). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for buses is around 4% and for freight vehicles is 1%.80 Vehicles cars” typically comply with the Euro 2 vehicle emission standard related to the fuel quality imported (500ppm sulphur for diesel). Figure 30 shows the vehicle distribution in Fiji as of 2017.

4.2 Image Figure 30. Vehicle Distribution in Fiji, 2017. Few 2- and 3-wheelers exist on the roads of Fiji. Among passenger cars, around two thirds run on petrol and the remainder run on diesel. The share of diesel vehicles among taxis is slightly smaller, at around 20% of vehicles. Hybrid cars have surged significantly in the past few years due to tax incentives, mostly as second-hand vehicles imported into Fiji. 80Based on registered vehicles period 2001 to 2014; Land Transport Authority. 74 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 75 In the urban context, public transport (PT) buses and passenger cars have a similar mode share of around 40% each 4.2.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework of motorized trips, followed by taxis, as can be seen in Figure 31. Bicycle use is rare. Table 11 shows relevant policies identified in existing government strategies and plans along with the specific documents where the policies are mentioned. The policies have been grouped under mitigation actions (MA). These Figure 31. Mode Share of Urban Trips in Fiji, 2015. mitigation actions were also considered for the LEDS. Under the section “model and methodology” the different (as percentage of trips)81 policies are discussed more in detail. Table 11. Relevant Policies for Land Transport. Mitigation action Policy or plan where action is mentioned83 Low-carbon vehicles including hybrids, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles INDC, GOF, 2018, p.8; GGFF, GOF, 2014, p.74ff; NDP, GOF, 2017; MLTP, (PHEVs) and Electric Vehicles (EVs) GOF, 2015, p.23ff Public transport expansion NDP, GOF, 2017; GSTS, FRA, 2014 Vehicle renewal GGFF, GOF, 2014, p.74ff; MLTP, GOF, 2015, p.23ff Promote Non-Motorized Transport (NMT) NDP, GOF, 2017; GSTS, FRA, 2014 Biofuels INDC, GOF, 2015, p.8; GGFF, GOF, 2014, p. 74ff; NDP, GOF, 2017; MLTP, GOF, 2015, p.23ff Efficient imported vehicles (including labelling) GGFF, GOF, 2014, p.74ff; MLTP, GOF, 2015, p.23ff; NDP, GOF, 2017 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) vehicles NDP, GOF, 2017 Vehicles that comply with Euro IV standard GGFF, GOF, 2014, p.74ff; NDP, GOF, 2017; MLTP, GOF, 2015, p.23ff One additional mitigation action modelled in this LEDS analysis, albeit not mentioned in policy documents, is efficiency improvement of existing vehicles. Note, these mitigation actions have different levels of effectiveness in terms of GHG emissions reduction.

4.2.4 Methodology Model and Methodology Used

4.2.2 Emission Sources Fiji has developed emissions projections for land transport in this LEDS using a bottom-up model. This methodological approach is based on following core elements: Summary of Emission Sources carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide • Use of a bottom-up model based on vehicle-km (vkm) per vehicle technology and fuel type; Sources of land transport emissions considered in this LEDS are separated by vehicle type including: passenger (N2O) are relevant for the transport sector. However, • Application of the Tier-2 approach, i.e. vehicle emissions are not related to speed and operating conditions as no cars, taxis, buses, and trucks. Trucks have been further this LEDS primarily considers CO2 emissions from land data on these factors are available (“hot” and “cold” emissions); disaggregated into urban or small trucks (less than 7.5 transport given that N2O emissions are generally very • Core data required to run the model include: the number of vehicles per vehicle category, the emission standard, tons) and inter-urban or large trucks (larger than 7.5 marginal (based on IPCC methodologies) and CH4 is the vehicle classes per category, fuel types used, annual distance driven, and the total quantity of fuel used; tons). similarly marginal due to limited use of gaseous fuels in Fiji.82 • Vehicle categories are based on registration data. Petrol and diesel vehicles are separated for each vehicle Type of Emissions category. For each category, the main vehicle class is determined based on engine size for passenger cars and Note, indirect emissions from electricity consumption for based on weight for trucks and buses; This LEDS considers only direct (“tank-to-wheel”) GHG powering electric vehicles are addressed in section 4.1 emissions, and not indirect emissions (“well-to-tank”) on Electricity and Other Energy Generation and Use. • CO2 emissions are based on the specific fuel consumption per vehicle category and fuel type used. CO2 emissions or black carbon (BC) emissions. Indirect emissions from are calculated based on the net calorific value (NCV) and the appropriate CO2 emission factor for each type of fuel electricity generation used to power electric vehicles are (IPCC 2006 approach); and considered as part of the energy sector (see section 4.1). • GHG projections are based on GDP projections prepared for the LEDS by the Fiji Ministry of Economy and the Among the GHGs included under the UNFCCC, only elasticity of cargo transported (tonne-km) and passengers transported (passenger-km) to GDP. 81Calculated based on National Household Travel Survey, Fiji 2015. 83The acronyms used in this table include: GOF (Government of Fiji), INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution), GGFF (Green Growth 82IPCC. (2006b). IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 2 Energy, Chapter 3 Mobile Combustion. Prepared by the National Framework for Fiji), NDP (National Development Plan), MLTP (Maritime and Land Transport Policy), GSTS (Greater Suva Transportation Strategy), and Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T., and Tanabe K. (eds). Japan: IGES. FRA (Fiji Roads Authority). 76 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 77 Data Used, Data Sources, and Assumptions assume mileage based on deployment of these inclusive of increased PT mode share, with multi-modal The nine mitigation options considered for low emission trucks for four months per year and average trip transport in urban areas and appropriate hub to provide projections for land transport include: Land transport scenarios were developed based on the distances as reported by the Sugarcane Association. adequate, affordable, reliable service to all areas of following data parameters and sources. • Adoption of HEVs and EVs; Based on the share of sugarcane trucks, an average Fiji.” The Second National Stakeholder Consultation • Vehicle numbers per category. Vehicle numbers mileage was thereafter calculated for all trucks. Workshop focusing on land transport took place on the • Promotion of PT; are based on the Fiji Land Transport Authority (LTA) Average distance for buses is based on data reported 6th of July, 2018. • Promotion of non-motorized transport (NMT) database; for goods vehicles three sub-categories by bus operators. Among stakeholder remarks, a bus company including cycling; are used (trucks < 7.5t, trucks 7.5-16t, and trucks 16-32t).84 These truck categories correspond to the • Total petrol transport fuel consumed. Total petrol representative commented that a planned increase • Promotion of vehicle renewal and scrapping; transport fuel consumed is based on data from Fiji in taxi licenses in Fiji could lead to changes in mode European Environment Agency (EEA) Corinair model Revenue and Customs Service (FRCS), and a 5% non- share from PT. A bus operator also called for stronger • Promotion of biofuels; truck categories. The assignment to each category was made based on the registered gross vehicle road usage for petrol is assumed based on the TNC, government engagement and direction to promote • Adoption of efficient new vehicles; and 2018. cleaner transport, including creating incentives for weight (GVW); for buses there are two categories: cleaner vehicles (including electric scooters and • Efficiency improvements in operating vehicles. minibuses and large buses (standard 10-12m buses), • Vehicle turnover rates. Vehicle turnover rates are bicycles), and addressing traffic congestion and lack of Other possible options considered for this LEDS include: based on the LTA database. required to determine the impacts of new vehicle infrastructure. Stakeholders raised several issues during promotion of LPG and LNG vehicles and compliance technologies (i.e., new vehicle stock penetration, • Fuel types used. Fuel types include petrol and diesel. the Third National Stakeholder Consultation Workshop. with Euro IV standards, but neither is seen as highly based on additional vehicles plus replacement Some LPG is used for vehicles in Fiji, but this is a very One called for broader consideration of cradle-to-grave relevant in reducing GHG emissions per se, and thus not vehicles) based on LTA database per age year and small share and LPG vehicles are also dual-fuel with impacts of developing new low or zero emission vehicles, incorporated into the scenarios. median calculated replacement ages. petrol. Fuel share data is provided by the Fiji LTA. and stronger consideration of non-motorised transport This LEDS also makes several basic assumptions in Other key considerations used in developing the low • Specific fuel consumption. Specific fuel consumption and ways of addressing traffic congestion. emission scenarios for land transport include the following: modelling mitigation actions for land transport. The values are based on Corinair85 using a Tier 2 One observed that reducing the required weight of approach; for all vehicle categories the vehicle vehicle structure in terms of fuel share (petrol vs. diesel) trucks has led to more trucks on the road. Another • Power Supply. The strategy to run 100% EVs will remains constant per vehicle category (except if replaced create significant additional demand on the electric emission standard Euro 2 was assumed as this noted a correction in the baseline information on the by HEVs/EVs under this specific MA), and the relative power grid from 2030 or 2035 onwards, especially corresponds to the median vehicle age registered number of vehicles in Fiji. Furthermore, a participant share of minibuses and bus vs. trucks of different sizes as high GDP growth rates would result in increased in the LTA database, the available fuel quality, and commented that shifting to Euro 4 standards has limited remains constant. In addition, vehicle engine size for vehicle fleet and mileage. To achieve maximum the lack of vehicle emission standards except for difference in terms of GHG emissions, although there fossil-fuel powered passenger cars, vehicle turnover emission mitigation, all new EVs should be charged second-hand imported vehicles since 2013 (requiring are indeed significant reductions in other pollutant rates (average lifetime age of vehicles), and annual using electricity from renewable sources. If this were Euro 4). The median vehicle year is calculated based emissions. There was some debate about promoting average mileage of vehicles all also remain constant. not the case, GHG emissions in the electricity sector on the LTA registration data. The Euro 2 standard is vehicle scrapping vs. renewal, the latter offering the would continue to increase. also assumed as this is the vehicle standard in force ability to direct people to buy lower emission vehicles, Stakeholder Consultation Process in major production countries from which Fiji has as well as whether increasing demand for electricity by • Peak Power Demand. Running 100% EVs will not imported vehicles prior to the year 2000. The average Stakeholders involved in land transport who were invited transitioning to EVs would increase emissions (hence the only stress the grid in terms of electricity production, engine size for cars and taxis for petrol vehicles is to participate in stakeholder consultations included: need for increased renewable generation). but also in terms of power demand. EV charging can 1.4-2.0 litres and for diesel vehicles is greater than the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, the Land have a sizeable impact on the loads applied to the 2.0 litres, based on the median values provided in the Transport Authority, the Fiji Roads Authority, the Fiji Bus 4.2.5 Low Emission Development grid at certain times and locations. Figure 32 shows LTA database. Operators Association, the Fiji Taxi Association, the Fiji the projected peak power demand from EVs under Minibus Association, several private transport service Scenarios • Annual average distance driven. Annual average companies, the International Union for Conservation of A description of the base year and the four emission the very high ambition scenario and indicates that EVs will pose a considerable demand on the grid in distance driven for passenger cars is based on reduction scenarios for land transport follows below. For Nature (IUCN), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Fiji concerning available power. Solutions to these calibration with top-down fuel sales for petrol each of the scenarios, it should be noted that cumulative World Bank, the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network, problems will involve controlled charging and smart and for diesel, based on the assumption of a 60% actions are not necessarily additive. Some might even and the Pacific Island Development Forum. Individual charging. For fast charging, managing power demand higher mileage for diesel units than for petrol cars cancel themselves out, e.g. if 100% of vehicles are consultations were also conducted with the Ministry is also likely to require the deployment of stationary in accordance with the average mileage difference converted to EVs, there is no need for biofuels. The of Infrastructure and Transport and EFL as well as the storage at the local level.87 Promoting Demand Side between diesel or petrol units of other countries. estimation approach used in this LEDS is a first step ADB. Management (DSM) is another important option For taxis, average distance is based on 300 working to determine the impact of combined measures and During the First National Stakeholder Consultation (see policy section below). The figure below shows days per year and 200 km driven daily.86 For trucks. then the mode shift impact based on the new vehicle Workshop on the 23rd of May, 2018, stakeholders outlined that EVs will pose a considerable additional power average distance is based on average data of other efficiencies. a vision of a “fully fossil-fuel free land transport sector, demand on the grid in Fiji. countries. For sugarcane trucks, the projections 84Trucks > 32t are less than 0.1% of all trucks in Fiji according to the LTA database, 2015. 87See IEA. (2017). Global EV Outlook 2017. 85EEA. (2016). Air pollutant emission inventory guidebook Version 2016 update December 2016. 86Various data sources from within Fiji. 78 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 79 Figure 32. Projected Peak Power Demand from Electric Mobility under Very High Ambition scenario. • Biofuel Plants. It should be noted that it may be difficult for Fiji to attract investment in biofuel plants for the production of biodiesel if Fiji runs an aggressive EV strategy at the same time, since demand for biodiesel will gradually decline, resulting in reduced investment recovery periods. • Mode Shift. If most or all vehicles are electric, mode shift will no longer reduce GHG emissions or local pollutants as the direct emissions from land transport will be zero, independent of the mode used. However, higher numbers of EVs would continue to congest the road, result in accidents, and discourage PT and non- motorised transport. Even if they would be carbon neutral at the time, promoting PT and NMT will still be justified to reduce congestion, save time, reduce car accidents, reduce environmental impacts for required road infrastructure, and improve health by encouraging cycling and walking. • EVs. The economic viability of electric vehicles will depend on national price structures and cannot be determined in a general form. This is discussed further in the policy section below. Base Year Emissions in 2014 GHG emissions from the land transport sector were an estimated 635,972 tCO2 in 2014. GHG emissions are dominated by goods vehicles which comprised 45% of emissions, followed by passenger cars generating 28% of emissions, buses 14%, and taxis 13%. Table 12. GHG Emissions 2014 for Land Transport. (tCO2) • Usage of Used Batteries. Used EV batteries can and ineffective policy, except if replaced with long- Source Amount Unit Share Passenger cars 177,388 tCO2 28% provide for low-cost storage capacity which is haul electric trucks (which will probably only be especially important in renewable energy grids. commercially available starting a decade from now). Taxis 82,616 tCO2 13% Particularly for small isolated islands, increasing • Used Vehicles and Cost. As of 2018, Fiji primarily Goods vehicles 284,222 tCO2 45% renewable energy penetration requires sufficient Buses 91,747 tCO2 14% imports used vehicles. These have a far lower cost energy storage systems due to the unpredictability of Total 635,972 tCO2 than new vehicles. With its reduced tax on HEVs, Fiji renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. has received a large influx of hybrid vehicles, thus This LEDS aims to achieve net zero emissions across all sectors by 2050 and does so for the land transport sector The effectiveness of DSM can be enhanced by bi- achieving its goal of promoting these vehicles. In the specifically under the Very High Ambition Scenario (see below). directional V2G capabilities where power can flow case of EVs, however, there are far fewer second- from the grid to the vehicle and vice-versa.88 The hand EVs to import. While this is expected to change BAU Unconditional Scenario development of electric mobility and of a renewable in the future, used EVs would have at least partially electricity system can thus contribute to reducing The BAU Unconditional scenario for land transport has been structured around a target of reducing GHG emissions depleted batteries and purchasers may have to total costs. EV fleets could play a role as distributed from energy sources by 10% by 2030 on an unconditional basis as, outlined in the NDC Implementation Roadmap. make costly investments in new battery sets, while energy storage systems, thereby assisting to increase This has been extrapolated to 2040 and 2050 by having targets of -10% for 2030, -20% for 2040 and -30% for 2050, not having the advantages of a vehicle with a state- the participation of renewables.89 compared to the extrapolated “do-nothing” scenario. of-the art battery management system or charging • Truck Age. Trucks are the most complex vehicle option (i.e., in terms of the charging power the vehicle The main mitigation actions for the BAU Unconditional scenario include: promoting hybrid and electric vehicles, PT, category concerning the reduction of GHG emissions, supports). It will be difficult for second-hand EVs cycling, and biofuels. especially long-haul trucks. Their commercial and even harder for new EVs to compete with used This scenario envisions gradually increasing the share of new vehicle sales to 10% HEVs for cars and taxis starting lifetime in Fiji can be very long; given the mileage conventional cars given the large financial gap that in 2020. Starting in 2030, 80% of all cars, 60% of taxis, and 30% of buses will be HEVs. In addition, 20% of cars, 40% in Fiji, a lifetime of 30 years could be normal and exists between EVs and conventional vehicles. This of taxis, 70% of buses, and 30% of urban trucks will be EVs. By 2050, 80% of cars, 50% of taxis, and 10% of buses economically efficient. Reducing the commercial gap is smaller in countries where new, rather than will be HEVs, while 20% of cars, 50% of taxis, 90% of buses, 40% of urban trucks will be EVs. All large trucks will lifespan of long-haul trucks can be a very costly second-hand, vehicles are sold. continue to use conventional fuels in this scenario. 88IEA. (2018). Global EV Outlook 2018. 89For example, Renault is testing a “smart electric island” with EVs, V2G, and energy storage in Porto Santo island, Portugal (see https://electrek. co/2018/02/21/renault-smart-electric-island-electric-vehicles-v2g-energy-storage/). 80 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 81 The scenario also envisions gradually increasing the share of public transport to 40% in 2020 and 45% from 2030 This scenario envisions gradually increasing the share of new vehicle sales of HEVs starting in 2020 to 30% for cars, onwards. The share of cycling will also gradually start to increase from 0% in 2020 to 1% in 2025 and onwards. 40% taxis, and 20% buses. By 2030, 30% of cars will be HEVs and 70% of cars and 100% of taxis, buses, and urban trucks will be EVs, along with 10% of large trucks. By 2050, all HEVs except large trucks will be phased out and 100% Under the BAU Unconditional scenario, Fiji will also promote biofuels, a bioethanol blend for petrol and biodiesel of cars, taxis, buses, and urban trucks will be EVs, as well as 40% of large trucks. blend for diesel. By 2020, the scenario would achieve 2% bioethanol in petrol and by 2050 and onwards 10% bioethanol in petrol and 5% biodiesel in diesel. The scenario also envisions gradually increasing the share of PT to 40% in 2020 and 45% from 2030 onwards. The share of cycling will also increase from 0% in 2020 to 10% in 2030 and to 20% by 2050. The emissions resulting from the adoption of mitigation actions under BAU Unconditional are provided in Table 13 below. Under the BAU Conditional scenario, Fiji will also achieve 5% bioethanol in petrol and 2% biodiesel in diesel by 2020, and by 2025 onwards 10% bioethanol in petrol and 5% biodiesel in diesel. Table 13. BAU Unconditional scenario for Land Transport. The emissions resulting from the adoption of mitigation actions under BAU Conditional are provided in Table 14 (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) below. GHG emissions are projected to peak in 2028 under this scenario and, thereafter, start dropping (even with Source Gas BY 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 increasing GDP and freight and passenger movement). Cars CO2 177,388 185,778 231,074 261,825 306,956 344,030 372,789 393,514 405,842 Table 14. BAU Conditional scenario for Land Transport. Taxis CO2 82,616 86,524 107,438 118,387 135,525 147,802 149,202 138,505 129,316 (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Buses CO2 284,222 96,086 120,910 142,754 168,525 183,092 181,227 164,928 123,391 Trucks CO2 91,747 295,363 357,974 414,118 501,902 602,260 713,042 834,290 965,297 Source Gas BY 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total CO2e 635,973 663,751 817,396 937,084 1,112,908 1,277,184 1,416,260 1,531,237 1,623,846 Cars CO2 177,388 185,778 225,468 226,364 232,381 213,943 184,108 149,722 115,336 Taxis CO2 82,616 86,524 106,240 95,840 81,664 58,046 30,377 8,901 0 Buses CO2 284,222 96,086 118,316 127,168 115,501 93,308 71,171 43,951 15,481 Figure 33. BAU Unconditional scenario – Land Transport. Trucks CO2 91,747 295,363 351,459 400,685 439,423 464,529 489,951 515,719 541,470 Total CO2e 635,973 663,751 801,483 850,057 868,969 829,826 775,607 718,293 672,287 Figure 34. BAU Conditional scenario – Land Transport. BAU Conditional Scenario The BAU Conditional scenario for land transport has been structured around a target of reducing GHG emissions by 30% by 2030 on a conditional basis as outlined in the NDC Implementation Roadmap. This has been extrapolated to 2040 and 2050 by having targets of -30% for 2030, -40% for 2040 and -50% for 2050 compared to the extrapolated “do-nothing” scenario. As with the BAU Unconditional scenario, the main mitigation actions for the BAU Conditional scenario include: promoting hybrid and electric vehicles, PT, cycling, and biofuels. 82 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 83 High Ambition Scenario Figure 35. High Ambition scenario – Land Transport. The High Ambition scenario for land transport achieves part of the ambition towards full net zero emissions in the Very High Ambition scenario. As with prior scenarios, the main mitigation actions for the High Ambition scenario include: promoting hybrid and electric vehicles, public transport, cycling, and biofuels, as well as efficiency improvement of operating vehicles. This scenario envisions gradually increasing the share of new vehicle sales for HEVs and EVs starting in 2020, with 40% HEV cars, 50% HEV taxis, and 30% HEV buses. By 2030, 20% of cars will be HEVs and 80% cars, 100% taxis, 100% buses, 100% urban trucks, and 40% large trucks will be EVs. By 2050 HEVs will be completely phased out and 100% of all cars, taxis, buses, and urban trucks and 70% of large trucks will be EVs. The scenario also envisions gradually increasing the share of PT to 40% in 2020, 53% by 2030, and 55% by 2050. The share of cycling will increase from 1% in 2020 to 15% in 2030 and to 35% by 2050. Under the High Ambition scenario (as with the BAU Conditional scenario), Fiji would achieve 5% bioethanol in petrol and 2% biodiesel in diesel by 2020, and by 2025 and onward 10% bioethanol in petrol and 5% biodiesel in diesel. Measures implemented by 2020 under the High Ambition scenario will result in capturing 10% of the total potential, and 50% by 2025 and onwards (not all possible measures are expected to be implemented or may only partially be implemented). The emissions resulting from the adoption of mitigation actions under the High Ambition scenario are provided in Table 15 below. It is projected that GHG emissions will peak in 2026 and, thereafter, start dropping even with increasing GDP and freight and passenger movement. By 2040, the total GHG emissions will be less than that of the base year of 2014. vehicle age of 20 years would apply to all vehicle Very High Ambition Scenario categories from 2030 onwards. Table 15. High Ambition scenario for Land Transport. Fiji aims to achieve zero emissions by 2050 from the land (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) The scenario also envisions gradually increasing the transport sector under the Very High Ambition scenario. share of PT to 40% in 2020, 60% by 2030, and 80% by This requires that, in addition to adopting all mitigation Source Gas BY 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2050. The share of cycling will increase from 1% in 2020 action options, all vehicles from 2030 onwards are Cars CO2 177,388 185,778 222,468 206,614 201,826 178,520 148,765 117,050 85,683 to 25% in 2030 and to 60% by 2050. scrapped after 20 years of use, thereby ensuring that all Taxis CO2 82,616 86,524 104,691 86,685 70,780 48,754 23,456 5,989 0 vehicles are electric by 2050. Under the Very High Ambition and BAU Conditional Buses CO2 284,222 96,086 116,887 117,896 105,633 84,413 63,261 37,255 12,253 scenarios, Fiji would achieve 5% bioethanol in petrol and As with prior scenarios, the main mitigation actions Trucks CO2 91,747 295,363 347,945 373,306 390,171 389,638 391,155 389,355 379,168 2% biodiesel in diesel by 2020 and, by 2025 onwards, for the High Ambition scenario include: promoting Total CO2e 635,973 663,751 791,991 784,501 768,410 701,325 626,637 549,649 477,104 10% bioethanol in petrol and 5% biodiesel in diesel. hybrid and electric vehicles, public transport, cycling, biofuels, and efficiency improvement of operating Measures implemented by 2020 under the Very High vehicles, with the addition of vehicle scrapping and Ambition scenario will result in capturing 10% of the maximum vehicle age. total potential, and 100% by 2025 and onwards (all possible mitigation measures are fully implemented). This scenario envisions gradually increasing the share of new vehicle sales for HEVs and EVs starting in 2020, The emissions resulting from the adoption of mitigation with 50% HEV cars, 60% HEV taxis, and 50% HEV buses actions under the Very High Ambition scenario are (0% EVs). By 2030, EVs will aggressively replace most provided in Table 16 below. GHG emissions are projected vehicles, including HEVs (which will be reduced to 0%), to peak in 2020 and thereafter start dropping (even with with 100% of all cars, taxis, buses, and urban trucks and increasing GDP and freight and passenger movement). 90% of large trucks replaced with EVs. By 2050, 100% The total GHG emissions around 2030 is expected to be of all vehicle types will be EVs. In addition, a maximum at parity with that of the base year of 2014. 84 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 85 Table 16. Very High Ambition scenario for Land Transport. Figure 37. Electricity Demand of Very High Ambition scenario for Mobility. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Cars CO2 177,388 185,778 222,040 189,043 169,353 89,156 45,780 13,720 0 Taxis CO2 82,616 86,524 104,446 78,165 58,985 40,078 17,292 3,476 0 Buses CO2 284,222 96,086 116,498 108,368 94,283 56,040 30,560 9,304 0 Trucks CO2 91,747 295,363 347,945 336,897 317,664 183,487 121,767 34,090 0 Total CO2e 635,973 663,751 790,929 712,473 640,285 368,761 215,399 60,590 0 Figure 36. Very High Ambition scenario – Land Transport. Comparison of Scenarios Figure 38 shows projections of GHG emission trajectories of the four scenarios, along with the extrapolation of the current GHG emissions used in the analysis. Figure 38. Comparison of scenarios – Land Transport. Figure 37 shows the total electricity demand for mobility related to the implementation of the Very High Ambition scenario, compared with Fiji’s electricity production in 2015, which highlights the large scale of additional electricity required. 86 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 87

4.2.6 Policy Recommendations,Priority Actions, and High Level Costing Vehicle efficiency improvements include eco-driving, efficient tyres, and improved All scenarios are technically achievable. The following graphs show the percentages that different mitigation actions aerodynamics for trucks. Improvements should be financially attractive to vehicle “Medium-term owner as a result of fuel savings, but may not be attractive enough to be implemented, contribute to GHG emissions reduction under each scenario. with the exception of aerodynamics. Therefore, it may be necessary to adopt mitigation actions regulations to encourage these practices, such as making eco-driving training include adopting Figure 39. Contribution of Mitigation Actions to GHG Emissions Reduction in the Land Transport Sector. compulsory to receive a driver’s license or assigning maximum levels of Coefficient EVs and fostering of Resistances (CORs) for tyres. Limited finance is required to structure these types of actions, which can be driven by appropriate policies, regulations and standards, public transport” alongside public education, awareness and enforcement. Biofuels are, in general, more expensive to produce than conventional fuels. However, actual cost differences will depend on national circumstances and, thus, need to be assessed in detail for Fiji. NMT plans have already been drafted in Fiji. Important steps to take in the future will include establishment of safe bike lanes, bike sharing systems including e-bikes, and policies for “putting bikes first.” Establishing a large biking infrastructure will not have short-term impacts on trip mode shares, but will create a culture of biking starting with sports and recreation and moving towards usage for daily commuting. Without safe and appropriate infrastructure, this shift cannot happen. Medium-term mitigation actions include adopting EVs and fostering public transport. These actions can be planned and trialled in the next few years; on-the-ground implementation is not expected in the short-term, but in the period after 2025. Fostering PT will require a detailed project plan about what is required and what systems are most appropriate. For EVs, it is recommended to develop an EV roadmap for Fiji that identifies which vehicle segments and areas to focus on and details the intervention strategies and financial means. As addressed above, long-term mitigation actions include mandating vehicle scrapping or maximum vehicle age in coordination with the increased adoption of EVs and alternative modes of transport for freight, potentially including rail or coastal shipping. The latter could provide alternatives to scrapping trucks. This will need to be defined prior to 2030 in order for Fiji to achieve zero emissions by 2050 due to the long commercial lifespan of trucks.90 Additional policy measures Fiji would need to consider to achieve these low emission scenarios include: Mode Shift. New policies will be needed to promote transport mode shifts, and simultaneously to promote EVs as well as PT and NMT. From the socio-economic perspective, increased use of PT is seen as economically profitable due to time savings As shown in Figure 39, EVs are by far the dominant Several critical points listed below need to be taken and vehicle operating cost savings. The increase in the mode share of PT can be mitigation action in all LEDS scenarios for the land into consideration for implementing mitigation options achieved with demand management measures which have a very low cost, or with transport sector. Biofuels and vehicle scrapping in land transport as part of this LEDS. supply measures which can entail high investment costs and/or support subsidies, (especially in BAU unconditional and BAU conditional), or a combination of supply and demand measures. Actual costs thus depend on Transitioning the land transport sector towards full and vehicle efficiency in the High Ambition and Very High specific policies and strategies for promoting PT. Increased use of NMT is seen as net zero emissions over the short-, medium-, and Ambition scenarios, can also play an important role in economically profitable due to vehicle operating cost savings. The increase in NMT long-term will require strategic policies and achieving low emission development. All other mitigation can be achieved with demand management measures (e.g., vehicle-free zones) which investments that catalyse and incentivise change actions have much more minor impact in terms of GHG have a very low cost and/or with supply measures such as bike lanes and bike sharing without unduly burdening individuals, business, or mitigation. However, it should be noted that for the Very facilities. Again, actual costs depend on the specific policies chosen. Some estimations government resources. High Ambition scenario, EV mitigation also includes of costs are given in Annex A. establishing a maximum vehicle age of 20 years starting Short-term mitigation actions, which can be in 2030 which can also be considered as a vehicle implemented in the next one to three years include: scrapping measure. vehicle efficiency improvements, biofuels, and NMT. 90To avoid excessive scrapping costs, a regulation establishing vehicle maximum age should be put into place prior to 2030 as then purchasers of vehicles are aware of their commercial lifespan of the vehicle and cannot claim after 20 years a residual value to be paid by the government. 88 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 89 Power Supply. As referenced in section 4.1, broad is estimated at USD 5,000 per passenger car, zero for required to set up such a system and make the adequate policy steps are limited (USD measures to increase investment in renewable energy taxis (due to higher mileage of the vehicles thus being 500,000-1 million for tyres and similar for eco-driving). The incremental CAPEX of “Fiji will also aim will be essential for effectively transitioning the land able to recover the incremental investment), USD 50,000 tyres is paid by vehicle owners which also profit from lower tyre and fuel usage. Also, transport sector. per bus and truck larger than 7.5t, and USD 10,000 per in eco-driving the user should pay the full course cost without subsidies whilst initial to develop Peak Power Demand. As mentioned above, DSM is an truck smaller than 7.5t.94 This would result in a cost funds can be used to set up the system. Such funds can be drawn from the national integrated low instrument that can reduce the need for grid upgrades of implementing the policy with 100% EVs at around budget, but also international cooperation e.g., from the UN system or bilateral donors carbon mobility USD 1.1 billion. Given the above, it will be necessary (this has been the case in various countries). and additional generation capacity. It consists largely of to consider adoption of financial incentive schemes plans that include optimising the charging time to match power supply and PT and NMT. Fiji will consider ways that PT systems can recover investments with demand basically shifting charging to the night or mid- for importers and vehicle purchases to encourage user charges and by collecting part of the windfall profit from increased land prices PT, last mile the adoption of HEVs and EVs in order to achieve the day (depending on the grid).91 Instruments to achieve ambitions of this LEDS. Appropriate national price around core routes through taxation e.g., through parking fees and property taxes. connectivity, this include dynamic tariffs that incentivise customers to charge EVs when optimal, assisted by smart charging structures will also need to be considered to ensure the Public subsidies, of course, can also support PT financing schemes. Fiji will also aim to develop integrated low carbon mobility plans that include PT, last mile connectivity, and NMT” profitability of electric vehicles. applications that can facilitate the choice of customers and NMT to attract international climate financing. To support the investment case, by allowing them to take advantage of a dynamic tariff. An important aspect to consider is how subsidies are bus use will be promoted and public investments will be made into pedestrian Currently, Fiji only has one fixed tariff, plus a power structured. If they are fiscally neutral and subsidies given and public transport infrastructure and traffic control measures to improve bus charge. Price differentiation between times of the day to EVs are paid by the same vehicle category as fossil operations and usage. There will also need to be a commitment to better planning and (depending on the structure of the grid, e.g., if wind fuel powered vehicles, they tend not to have a negative understanding of bus operations. These measures will strengthen the business case power plays an important role, night tariffs would need social impact. If subsidies are, however, paid out of and create an enabling environment for investment, thereby supporting bus operators to be reduced) and also between times of the day for general government revenues (or result in reduced and other stakeholders in making the transition to a low carbon PT system. power demand will be required to reduce additional government revenues e.g., due to lower taxation levels Promoting More Efficient Trucks. To achieve zero emissions in the transport sector in power demand and high peaks. on electric cars), then a negative social impact can the Very High Ambition Scenario, this LEDS envisions a maximum lifetime of vehicles occur. This is the case if subsidies or tax reductions are Fiji will also consider new policies to allow for EV owners of 20 years. All vehicles after 2030 would need to be replaced with electric units after given for private passenger cars. This would be difficult to support bi-directional V2G capabilities where power reaching 20 years. This will require considerable financial resources in terms of to justify based only on the environmental impact. can flow from the grid to the vehicle and vice-versa. scrappage fees. Efficiency improvement measures have a (low) investment cost and Subsidies or tax exemptions to commercial vehicles, this is recovered through energy savings i.e., measures are profitable and thus do not Promoting Adoption of HEVs and EVs. Promotion of on the other hand, are socially more justified as the result in a total cost increase. The cost for promoting more efficient trucks would be in HEVs and EVs will require overcoming their higher major beneficiaries from improved PT are lower income the range of USD 3 million. costs to consumers and businesses. In part, HEVs groups. (in the short-term) and EVs (in the longer-term) are Promoting Biofuels. Similar policies will be needed to encourage short-term Other measures can include separating vehicle expected to recover their incremental investment with investment in biofuel plants to assist in the transition towards EVs and net zero ownership and vehicle operation (e.g., through leasing lower operating costs. This is especially true for high- emission scenarios. Based on the incremental cost of biofuels of around USD 0.20 per contracts with taxi operators and bus operators), mileage vehicles, such as taxis and buses, and at a litre95 and blending levels of 5% biodiesel and 10% bioethanol, the annual cost would reduced taxes on HEVs and EVs (e.g., complemented by later stage also for trucks (due to technology not being be USD 3 million for this policy (at the specified blending levels). increasing taxes on fossil vehicles), and subsidizing the as far developed as for buses and cars). The significant development of public charging infrastructure. Access to green financial funds such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF) or the upfront subsidies given to EVs from countries with high Green Climate Fund (GCF) for electric mobility is also an option. However, each project EV numbers is a certain indication that EVs are currently Efficiency Improvements in Vehicles. Efficiency must clearly demonstrate the impact of the business model used i.e., considering how not economically viable.92 The purchase cost is not the improvements are cost-effective. Public funds would financing needs will evolve as new mitigation actions are adopted. only barrier, but it is still a significant barrier towards thus be used to set up the structure e.g., regulatory purchase of an EV by potential customers.93 Currently, measures for efficient tyres or training facilities for the incremental cost, based on the total cost of eco-driving combined with making their attendance ownership difference between EV and fossil fuel vehicles, compulsory to obtain a driving license. Initial funds 91High non-demanded power generation from wind generators during the night and solar PV at midday. 92As an example, the government of Norway (with the highest share of electric cars) subsidizes 45% of the EV price and the government of China (with the largest absolute number of electric cars) subsidizes 23% of the total price while also providing numerous other benefits (see McKinsey. (2017b). 95Incremental cost based on price differences in Europe. Dynamics in the global electric-vehicle market). China has more than 95% of the world market of electric buses in operation and subsidizes them on average with 65% of the purchase cost, making them cheaper than conventional buses (see Grütter Consulting. (2018). Low Carbon Buses in PR China). 93McKinsey. (2017a). Electrifying insights: How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability. 94Data based on EV policy study prepared by Grütter Consulting for ADB, 2018. 90 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 91

4.3 MARITIME TRANSPORT “People rely on

4.3.1 Overview sea transport not This section examines the maritime transport component of Fiji’s LEDS. Maritime transport encompasses emissions from all domestic shipping and related port just for trade and infrastructure within Fiji Port Authority boundaries. fishing, but also for Throughout human history, maritime transport has played a key role in economic personal transport development. Today, shipping is the lifeblood of international trade and a highly interlinked global economy. Powered almost exclusively by fossil fuels, shipping is and access to also a major emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for 2-3% of anthropogenic CO2 crucial services, emissions.96 International shipping was omitted from the Paris Agreement, mainly such as health because of its international nature and the corresponding difficulty of apportioning emissions from the sector to individual parties. However, the International Maritime and education” Organization (IMO), tasked to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping, has since adopted an initial GHG emission reduction strategy, which includes a target of reducing total CO2 emissions by at least 50% over a 2008 baseline by 2050.97 In Fiji, shipping plays a particularly important role, with people relying on sea transport

4.3 IMAGE not just for trade and fishing, but also for personal transport and access to crucial services, such as health and education. Maritime transport is a cross-cutting issue for a maritime nation such as Fiji and is interrelated with most domestic economic, social, and environmental drivers. A strategy for the maritime transport sector will therefore be a key element of any successful drive for sustainable development in Fiji and emission reductions must be achieved without compromising safety, access, and affordability of maritime transport services. Using the Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji (MSAF) ship register, emissions from maritime transport are broken down into the following: • Government Shipping Service (GSS) vessels; • Vessels operating on designated “Uneconomic Routes” – subsidised, privately owned shipping that services the “uneconomical routes” as defined by Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport (MoIT); • Economical vessels – privately owned shipping that services the “economical routes” as defined by MoIT; • Tourism vessels; • Fishing vessels (domestic flagged vessels only); • Small boats – under 15 m in length and predominantly powered by outboard motors; and • Other vessels – a range of “specialist” vessels such as tugs and dredgers. 96 Smith et al. (2014). 3rd Greenhouse Gas Emission Study. London: International Maritime Organization. 97International Maritime Organisation. (2018). Initial GHG Emissions Reduction Strategy. London: IMO 92 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 93

4.3.2 Emission Sources Figure 40. Estimated 2016 Fiji maritime emissions. As depicted in Figure 40, total emissions for the Fiji maritime sector are estimated at 174 kilotonnes of CO2 in 2016. Commercial vessels on “economical” routes are the “Total emissions Summary of Emission Sources largest source, followed by tourism vessels. for the Fiji Emissions from the sector are primarily from This LEDS considers all estimated emissions from domestic fishing vessels. However, combustion of diesel or petrol aboard vessels of varying emissions from international fishing vessels that bunker and operate in Fiji waters are maritime sector size and capacity. These include fuel burnt in propulsion not included. Under IPCC carbon accountancy guidelines of 2006, such emissions are are estimated engines and, in larger vessels, auxiliary electricity generation motors. to be accounted for under Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (mobile combustion) at 174 kilotonnes and not Transport. However, as no data is available for this sub-sector, it has not been In addition to vessel emissions, a limited amount of included in the scenario projections for the LEDS. of CO2 in 2016” emissions are associated with shoreside buildings and vehicles within the Port Authority’s boundaries. Vessels Type of Emissions have been classified according to size into small vessels In terms of Fiji’s maritime transport emissions, CO2 is the main type of emission which (under 15 m length) and large vessels (over 15 m length). is produced through the internal combustion of diesel and petrol (primarily premix).100 While not a strict delineation, it has been assumed that While there are other GHG gases from the sector (such as black carbon, hydrocarbons, small vessels are primarily powered by petrol motors methane, and nitrous oxide) these are a minute proportion of the totals and have not and large vessels by diesel engines. Large vessels will been considered in the LEDS. When electric motors become available in this sector, also commonly have independent electricity generation any relevant emissions will be accounted for under the electricity sector (if fossil fuels capacity, usually also diesel fuel powered. This is not an are used – see also section 4.1 of the LEDS). exact distinction as some small vessels may be diesel powered and some vessels over 15 m may be powered 4.3.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework by large petrol outboard motors, but the variance is There are numerous plans, policies, strategies, acts, and regulations relating to considered to be too small to make any major statistical maritime transport and emissions from vessels in Fiji, and others are being developed difference. (e.g., NDP, TNC, and the Green Growth Framework for Fiji). These are discussed Shoreside emissions are thought to be a small elsewhere in the LEDS as they have implications for all sectors of Fiji’s emissions. A component, comprising emissions from within Port summary of key policies is provided below. Authority boundaries. However, as no data is available on Adopted in April 2018, the International Maritime Organisation Initial Strategy for GHG port energy use, these emissions are not included in this Emissions Reduction (2018) addresses emissions from international shipping. As an LEDS. Although not considered in this LEDS, shoreside IMO member, the Fiji Government has supported adoption of “high ambition” targets emissions may be considered in future LEDS prepared by for GHG emissions reduction from international shipping consistent with keeping open Fiji. Shoreside emissions are associated with buildings the possibility of achieving the 1.5oC temperature goal. A key effect of the IMO strategy and infrastructure, electricity generation, and petrol and will be to catalyse changes in fuels used by the shipping industry as shown in Figure 41. diesel fuel used in vehicles and equipment.98 Generally, international estimates of such shoreside emissions are about 1.0-1.5% of total maritime emissions.99 Given their negligible contribution and lack of data, these emissions have been excluded from the modelling undertaken for this LEDS. 98Note, savings are potentially available and to be encouraged from changes to building efficiency, installation of electricity saving measures, changes 100Premix refers to a 50:1 petrol/2-stroke oil mixture sold in all Fijian service stations. It provides a rough proxy for 2-stroke outboard engine use, see in vehicle operator behaviour, and transition to electric or alternative fuel powered machinery. The primary future impact would come if the use of “cold Smith, T. et al. (2016). CO2 emissions from international shipping. Possible reduction targets and their associated pathways. London: UMA. ironing” (switching off ship electricity generation systems in ports in favour of grid power connections to land-based supply) were to be contemplated. Given the structure and capacity of the electricity generation sector, this is not considered a feasible future option for Fiji. Reefers are also potentially a large source of demand if stored and powered within Port Authority boundaries on grid electricity supply. 99Smith, T. et al. (2014). 3rd Greenhouse Gas Emission Study. London: International Maritime Organisation. 94 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 95 Figure 41. Potential fuel mix changes in international shipping in line with 50% 4.3.4 Methodology of technological solutions. For Fiji to achieve deep decarbonisation target. “The revival decarbonisation, it will require the creation of a full Model and Methodology Used enabling environment including policies, regulations, of traditional and financial incentives amongst others. This would The LEDS for maritime transport includes four knowledge emissions scenarios modelled against the estimated need to be accompanied by a whole-of-sector approach associated with 2016 domestic maritime emission profile (i.e., base to consultation and implementation including all key year). The four future scenario pathways have targets stakeholder groups, in particular the private sector and use of small canoes industry operators. of 10% by 2030, 30% by 2030 (in line with the 2017 NDC and camakau Implementation Roadmap) and 70% by 2050 and 100% The search for low carbon transitions in the maritime (traditional by 2050 (in line with Fiji’s position in IMO emissions sector globally has demonstrated a significant lag reduction framework negotiations in 2017-18). time behind development of such alternatives in other watercraft) to Emission scenarios for the maritime sector in this LEDS energy sectors, in particular electricity generation and reduce the reliance are calculated based on the number and type of vessels, land transport. The lack of research and development on fossil fuel annual energy consumption for each vessel, and an in the maritime sector in comparison to other energy emission factor for the amount of CO2 emitted per unit use sectors and the barriers to such transitions have outboard motors resulted in a lack of ‘proof of concept’ demonstrations. of energy used. The projections used in this LEDS take is part of national into account the replacement rate of vessels as well This lag is particularly significant for the scale and policy” as measures to improve energy efficiency and reduce type of vessels typical to Fiji, where vessel types are energy demand in vessels, and the degree to which predominantly smaller and comparatively older. new technologies are adopted in the fleet. The LEDS To effect change, therefore, it is recommended that As a maritime nation, Fiji has various domestic maritime policies and has engaged in assumes that the value of the emission factor declines government shipping assets and services (GSS, Water several important regional agreements to promote sustainable maritime transport. over time based on the rate of adoption and penetration Police, Navy, Fisheries, and Biosecurity) should be used Relevant regional policies include the Suva Declaration (2015) which provides for an of low emission technologies for propulsion power, e.g., to pilot and demonstrate the potential for reducing integrated approach to transitioning Pacific countries to low carbon transport futures, alternative fuels. emissions and increasing economic savings to the including sea transport; the Pacific Community (SPC)’s Framework for Action on A range of mitigation options is available for reducing private sector. Such an enabling environment will also Transport Services (2011), and USP’s Regional Research and Education Strategy (2014) and finally eliminating GHG emissions from the maritime rely on external investment in technology trials and long- which promotes research and education needs to promote a shift to low or zero carbon transport sector. The description of the scenarios below term capacity development throughout the sector. It will sea transport in the Pacific. sets out the minimum mitigation measures needed to also require a balanced mixture of financial incentives Among the key national policies is the Maritime and Land Transport Policy (2015), achieve each outcome, and the assumptions made as to (e.g., reduced import taxes for agreed measures and which promotes improved efficiency at ports, the introduction of fuel-efficient transport the enabling environment that will be needed to effect subsidized or soft loan packages such as green bonds) equipment and engines able to operate on biofuels, operation and maintenance of implementation. Measures are divided into those needed and penalties (e.g., import taxes, financial modality transport equipment in a manner that minimises consumption and CO2 emissions, for small vessels under 15 m, and those needed for packages, and regulation) to drive transition and uptake and the development and introduction of low carbon propulsion alternatives and hull larger vessels (all those over 15 m). by the private sector of successfully demonstrated pilots. designs. The policy aims to reduce the energy and carbon intensity of the domestic Market champions should be valorised – for example, The literature102 includes various marginal abatement leaders in the maritime tourism sector are the obvious fleet through the adoption of operational actions (such as slow steaming and weather cost (MAC) curves that model such reductions at various routing), retrofitting and replacement to energy/carbon efficient propulsion and hull group to drive transition in the small vessel market. scales of vessels with options divided into operational These strategies are based on a number of assumptions design, the use of smaller, more efficient craft that are suited to inter-island routes,101 and technological measures and alternative fuels. introduction of renewable energy (biofuel, solar, or sail assisted) vessels and the which are set out in the context of each modelled Existing vessels can be improved through retrofits of scenario. revival of traditional knowledge associated with use of small canoes and camakau various technologies, but increased emissions savings (traditional watercraft) to reduce the reliance on fossil fuel outboard motors. at real scale will require transition to new generation Other relevant policies include the Marine Act (1986) (which addresses vessel vessels. Given the long asset life of most maritime registration and safety), the Sea Ports Management Act (2005) and Sea Ports vessel types, this requires a staged and planned fleet Management Regulations (2008), the Ship Registration Decree (2013), the Maritime replacement strategy over time. Transport Decree (2013), and the Maritime (Fiji Small Craft Code) Regulations (2014). Transition to a full decarbonisation pathway presents a Other more ambitious policies to achieve low or zero emissions in Fiji’s maritime significant challenge to Fiji (and other SIDS) and there sector are also in development, including a proposed GHG Mitigation Plan for the are few current market leaders. There is a marked Maritime Transport Sector in Fiji. increase in both policy development and the availability 101Including routes between Suva and the outer islands as well as travel directly between outer islands 102For a full overview of low carbon transition for SIDS see https://unctadsftportal.org/sftftoolkit/transitioningtolowcarbonshippingmodule/ 96 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 97 Direct measures to reduce emissions can be grouped and available commercially in the future. LNG has options and their effectiveness will be specific according baseline for each type of vessel with the exception of under the following headings. been shown to be unlikely to achieve significant to vessel type and function. Slow steaming is a well- GSS vessels (for which reliable data is available) and (to emissions reductions globally, and this is particularly recognized practice for reducing fuel consumption in a slightly lesser degree) vessels operating under the • Reduction in the number and/or use of vessels – this true for the Pacific given issues of bunkering and shipping and can be applied to some vessels in Fiji. government franchise scheme on uneconomical routes. is not considered a viable option for a maritime nation supply. However, this measure is not generic to all vessels, Commercial vessels on “economical” routes are the and vessel number and use is predicted to increase the nature of a harbour pilot vessel for example means largest emitting sub-sector followed by “tourism.” It is with increasing GDP and population. Mitigation measures also vary according to whether they slow steaming is not an available option. As discussed also possible there are some overlaps between the sub- are targeted at small or large vessel scale, reflecting the • Increased operational efficiency of vessels through previously, emissions reductions are available to existing sectors. For example, small boats may also engage in current dominant fuel use for each (petrol and diesel measures including: increased maintenance, trim vessels through operational measures and retrofitted fishing or tourism activities, however the emissions are respectively). and ballasting; slow steaming (travelling at slower technologies, but such savings will always be lower than not double-counted. speeds); better route and weather planning; just- Small vessels: Vessels under 15 m are powered with what can be achieved with new build vessels. A planned in-time routing (to arrive in port at the optimal petroleum and premix (or 2-stroke) petrol mix. There long-term approach to overall fleet replacement with low Stakeholder Consultation Process time and reduce use of auxiliary motors in port); are two basic types of outboard engines used in Fiji, carbon alternatives is needed over the next 30 years. The The primary stakeholders for domestic maritime improved hull coatings and hull scrubbing to reduce 2-stroke petrol combustion models and 4-stroke, with introduction of new technologies, at all scales, provides transport in Fiji include the Ministry of Infrastructure friction resistance; and crew training and capacity 2-stroke engines making up the vast majority. 2-stroke an opportunity to establish Fiji as a regional centre for and Transport (Transport Planning Unit and Government development. motors are cheaper to purchase initially and less fitting, servicing, and at least partial construction of such Shipping Services), the Ministry of Rural and Maritime complicated to maintain. However, they are considered • Technological options include: use of renewable technologies and potentially construction of complete Development, the MSAF, the Fiji Ports Authority, the to be 40% less fuel efficient than 4-strokes. As small vessels. This will require investment in training, energy (sails, rotors, solar, and biofuels) either as Fiji Ship Owners and Agents Associations, USP, the vessels make up 12.5% of the total emissions for this education, development, and skill retention across the sole power, or primary power hybrids; improved Fiji Maritime Academy, Sailing for Sustainability Fiji sector, a 40% overall saving (5% of total emissions for sector. hull shapes and vessel design; improved efficiency (an NGO), the Fiji Yachting Association, the Uto ni Yalo the sector) is available simply from full transition to propellers and propeller cowlings; upgrading the Trust, Fiji Ships & Heavy Industries Ltd and other private 4-stroke outboards. This would require investment in Data Used, Data Sources, and Assumptions power plants of older vessels to newer and more shipping and ship building companies, the European training and capacity development for 4-stroke outboard efficient motors; air cavitation; and battery electric The primary data source was taken from the ADB Union Delegation, SPC, the World Food Programme, and maintenance, as well as economic instruments (such as hybrid motors. technical assistance study for the sector103 and updated ADB. duty concessions) to address the current cost differential against fresh data sets supplied by various government • Increase the fuel efficiency of the vessel motors and a strong public education campaign. Further savings During the first stakeholder workshop on the 23rd of departments, in particular MSAF and FRCS, and data through transition from current fuel use to lower will require transition to electric motors (e-motors) and, May, 2018, stakeholders developed a long-term vision collected in preparation of the TNC. carbon or more efficient carbon fuel alternatives finally, fuel cells (most likely hydrogen). for Fiji to have a decarbonised maritime transport and vessel types, including: transitioning from sector by 2050 which is clean, safe, affordable, Additionally, wind assistance or primary propulsion Limitations and Uncertainties 2-stroke to 4-stroke petrol motors, higher efficiency appropriate, and provides connectivity to its maritime is a readily available, but currently under used. This There is insufficient data to be able to measure, with diesel and electric hybrid motors, wing-in-ground communities. Participants noted that broader buy-in by proven technological fix offers between 5-100% savings. any accuracy, the historical growth trends of the Fiji (WiG) vessels and high efficiency hull designs. For the private sector, ship operators, and other relevant Greater efficiency hull designs (both hydrodynamic and domestic maritime sector. Therefore, future growth each of these options there are varying degrees stakeholders would be needed, as several private sector aerodynamic) also offer the potential for significant (3- in the sector and its related emissions have been of technology uptake barriers that will need to be representatives were not in attendance. Achieving deep 60%) savings. calculated using government projections of change in addressed, primarily through long-term human decarbonisation would mean net zero emissions in capacity development and financing modalities. Ultimately, to achieve 100% decarbonisation of the GDP as an equivalent proxy. the sector by 2050 as a result of adopting renewable sector, all petrol outboards would need to be replaced energy (including hybrid solar/sail technology) and • Alternative fuels. All of the above, in combination, The lack of data for the maritime sector is a limiting with sails and small motors powered by renewable factor in developing the LEDS and an issue that will traditional sailing. Success would depend on improving can play a role in the initial reduction of existing energy, such as electric (this would have to be produced require ongoing attention. Due to lack of data, totals planned maintenance programmes for ships, support emissions. However, the consensus in the literature from renewable energy sources such as solar to be reflect a margin of error. Improving data capture and for community owned and operated small vessels, and is that these options are likely insufficient to achieve effective in reducing emissions) or hydrogen fuel cells. analysis is a critical first step in any decarbonisation the adoption of enabling policies, increased investment, deep or full decarbonisation across the fleet. agenda and will require dedicated internal government financing, and improved data collection. Stakeholders Achieving full decarbonisation will require the use Larger vessels: There are a variety of vessels of capacity to be built and retained. It will be important, also noted the importance of engaging the tourism of currently commercially unproven fuel sources. between 15 m and 130 m in length, with the vast majority for example, to initiate the top-down collection of sector. Key challenges for decarbonising the sector There are a number of such energy sources being being under 50 m, which burn diesel for propulsion and disaggregated data on fuel imports, combined with discussed during the second stakeholder consultation developed, with methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen as auxiliary power. As there is a wide range of different improved bottom-up data collection from the private included: lack of adequate data, insurance, financing, the most likely alternatives, and there is increasingly types of vessels serving different purposes in this sector and vessel operators on fuel sales, motor sales, human capacity, enabling policies, and monitoring rapid progress being made for each of these. The category (e.g., RoRo passenger/cargo ferries, landing and fuel use. equipment, as well as obsolete machinery and old “high ambition” and “very high ambition” scenarios craft, fishing boats, tourism related, and specialist infrastructure and buildings. Key opportunities included: are predicated on such energy sources being proven vessels such as tugs) there is also a range of mitigation Due to lack of data, error bars are provided in the 103Traut, M., Newell, A. and Smith, T. (2017). GHG Mitigation Plan for the Maritime Transport Sector in Fiji. Manila: ADB. 98 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 99 capitalising on international trends and development, access to climate financing, This scenario reflects existing NDC targets that are unconditional and are to be implemented without the need potential financial savings for public and private sector, potential for increased “Stakeholders for external/international financing and assumes existing programs, such as the Pacific Maritime Technology shipping solutions at all levels, increased employment opportunities from greener Cooperation Centre and the Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, would continue to provide support. Under shipping (local and overseas), increasing Fiji’s profile internationally, expanding the expressed this scenario, domestic maritime emissions will increase from 174 kt CO2 in 2016 to just over 500 kt CO2 annually by maritime sector generally and increasing slipways to accommodate 6,000 tonne confidence in 2050. vessels, promoting existing low carbon vessels (e.g., Uto ni Yalo), and providing a achieving net Achieving this is primarily a result of converting small vessels (mainly using petrol) to new motors. This includes low carbon maritime hub/model for outer islands. The third stakeholder workshop provided an opportunity for key stakeholders to confirm the four low emission zero emissions converting 50% of these vessels from 2-stroke to 4-stroke outboard motors and 10% from petrol to electric outboard motors. Additionally, 20% of small vessels will adopt sail-assist or sail-powered designs scenarios for the sector. They also suggested that Fiji should lead regional capacity for maritime development through research, education, and training. Stakeholders expressed With regard to large vessels running on diesel, improved operational efficiency measures would be adopted in 100% confidence in achieving net zero emissions for maritime transport by ensuring all transport” of government vessels and 20% of private sector vessels. The GSS would also purchase and operate at least one low GSS vessels are low carbon (it was assumed that GSS would be operating at least 10 carbon “proof of concept” vessel in this scenario. ships), adopting increasingly stringent targets for deep decarbonisation, and greatly Achieving this level of reduction is dependent on several assumptions. For example, the government will work to increasing use of coastal maritime freight due to its high energy efficiency. ensure that existing policies and plans are implemented (e.g., GSS purchase of a low carbon demonstration vessel) and that proposed new policies are enacted. Long-term and ongoing investment will be needed in national education

4.3.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios and research in the sector, as well as ongoing stakeholder engagement (especially with private sector support Four Scenarios have been modelled against the estimated 2016 profile as the base services, boat builders, and tourism operators), and awareness raising and training for conversion to 4-stroke and year (see Figures 42 and 43). e-motors at training institutions and private sector maintenance facilities. In line with plans for electricity generation in this LEDS, it will also be essential to ensure all recharging of small vessel electric motors is from renewable Base Year (2016) sources and is commercially viable. The year 2016 is the base year used as it has the most recently available data. Table 18. BAU Unconditional scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. BAU Unconditional Scenario (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) The 2016 Baseline emissions for the domestic maritime sector are shown in Table 17. Source Gas BY 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GSS CO2 3,400 3,900 4,000 4,200 4,900 5,700 6,700 7,900 Table 17. Baseline Emissions for the Domestic Maritime Sector. Franchise CO2 3,600 4,100 4,600 5,300 6,200 7,300 8,600 10,300 Economical CO2 67,100 76,400 86,400 98,200 115,100 135,700 160,800 191,300 Baseline (2016) Fishing CO2 25,400 29,000 34,600 41,400 50,300 61,200 74,500 90,600 Sub-sector (based on MSAF categorization) Emissions (kt CO2) Tourism CO2 33,600 38,400 45,800 54,800 66,600 81,100 98,600 120,000 GSS 3.44 Small Boats CO2 21,700 24,800 28,400 32,000 36,400 41,800 48,500 56,700 Franchise (uneconomical routes) 3.61 Other CO2 19,200 21,900 26,100 31,300 38,000 46,300 56,300 68,500 Passenger & cargo (economical routes) 67.12 Total CO2e 174,000 198,500 229,900 267,200 317,500 379,100 454,000 545,300 Fishing (domestic flagged only) 25.37 Tourism 33.59 Small boats (<15m) 21.67 Other 19.18 TOTAL 173.98 In 2016, total emissions for the maritime sector are estimated at 174 kt of CO2. 100 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 101 Figure 42. BAU Unconditional scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. Table 19. BAU Conditional scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GSS CO2 3,400 3,800 3,800 3,700 4,100 4,700 5,600 6,700 Franchise CO2 3,600 4,000 3,800 3,200 3,200 3,300 3,700 4,200 Economical CO2 67,100 74,400 69,800 62,100 61,200 63,300 71,400 81,400 Fishing CO2 25,400 28,800 32,200 34,900 39,600 45,900 55,900 68,000 Tourism CO2 33,600 38,100 42,600 46,300 52,400 60,800 74,000 90,000 Small Boats CO2 21,700 24,800 28,000 29,300 30,600 32,600 35,300 38,800 Other CO2 19,200 21,700 24,300 26,400 29,900 34,700 42,200 51,400 Total CO2e 174,000 195,600 204,500 205,900 221,000 245,300 288,100 340,500 Figure 43. BAU Conditional scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. BAU Conditional Scenario least two low carbon “proof of concept” vessels in this scenario and prepare and implement a 25-year fleet This scenario reflects existing NDC targets that are replacement strategy with an increasing shift towards conditional and dependent on external/international low carbon designs as mandatory requirements for new financing being available to implement, and thus have vessels purchased. All vessel imports will be subject to higher ambition than the “unconditional scenario” above. increasingly stringent Tier II efficiency requirements. A The BAU Conditional scenario projects a 30% decrease vessel financing modality program will be designed and in emissions from the sector by 2030 relative to the 2016 implemented to support public and private sector uptake baseline. In this scenario, emissions will continue to of new technologies and Fiji’s franchise scheme will increase, but only from 174 kt CO2 in 2016 to 340 kt CO2 need to be amended to favour use of low carbon vessels in 2050. and operational efficiencies. To achieve these emission reductions, among small In addition to the assumptions for the BAU Unconditional vessels (running on petrol) 60% of all 2-stroke outboard scenario, the BAU Conditional scenario will involve motors will be converted to 4-stroke, 25% of motors regular training and outreach to the private sector to High Ambition Scenario running on petrol will be converted to electric outboard promote operational efficiency measures. External The High Ambition scenario projects a 70% decrease in emissions from the sector by 2050, or earlier, relative to motors. Additionally, 40% of small vessels will adopt funding will be secured for a government fleet the 2016 baseline. This reflects the lower-bound position advocated by the Fiji Government in IMO GHG emissions sail-assist or sail-powered designs; wind assist can be replacement strategy, a financing modality for private reduction negotiations for international shipping. The scenario projects a decline in emissions after 2020 but then used by small vessels using outboards (either 4-stroke sector adoption, and research and development slight increases over time, with emissions remaining around 200 kt CO2. or electric). (including data collection/analysis, monitoring, and Among large vessels running on diesel, improved enforcement). The government will also maintain and To achieve these emission reductions, among small vessels (running on petrol), 30% of all 2-stroke outboard motors operational efficiency measures would be adopted in expand partnerships with leading Centres of Excellence will be converted to 4-stroke, 40% of petrol motors will be converted to electric outboard motors, and there will be 100% of government vessels and 50% of private sector and technology providers with the support of bilateral a 30% uptake of hydrogen fuel cells. Moreover, 70% of small vessels will adopt sail-assist or primarily sail-powered vessels. The GSS would also purchase and operate at and donor agencies. designs, in addition to switching to 4-stroke or electric motors. 102 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 103 Among large vessels running on diesel, improved operational efficiency measures would be adopted in 100% of Very High Ambition Scenario government vessels and private sector vessels. The GSS would also purchase and operate at least 10 low carbon The Very High Ambition scenario projects 100% decrease in emissions from the sector by 2050. This scenario “proof of concept” vessels in this scenario and implement a 25-year fleet replacement strategy with an increasing projects ambition well beyond those already specified in policy and envisages achieving net zero emissions by 2050 shift towards low carbon designs as a mandatory requirement for new vessels purchased. All vessel imports will be or earlier. This represents the upper-bound target advocated for by the Fiji Government in the IMO. Achieving 100% subject to increasingly stringent Tier II efficiency requirements. A vessel financing modality program will be designed decarbonisation in the domestic maritime sector is based on a number of assumptions, including international and implemented to support public and private sector uptake of new technologies, and Fiji’s franchise scheme will commercial availability of new technologies (such as new generation fuels), and adequate transitional financing to need to be amended to favour use of low carbon vessels and operational efficiencies. In addition, Fiji will adopt public and private operators. The measures and assumptions are cumulative as ambition increases. regulations to impose penalties on the use of fossil fuel-powered vessels, and low carbon requirement provisions will be included in new and renewed sea route licenses for economic routes. Finally, Fiji will establish a low carbon To achieve these emission reductions, among small vessels (running on petrol), 40% of petrol motors will be maritime technology industry hub, supported by the government and supplying local and regional markets. converted to electric outboard motors, complemented by adoption of hydrogen fuel cells in the remaining 60% of small vessels. Additionally, 90% of small vessels will adopt sail-assist or sail-powered designs to maximise In addition to the assumptions reflected in the BAU Unconditional and BAU Conditional scenarios, the High Ambition efficiency. Scenario assumes the availability of commercially proven and affordable hydrogen fuel cells for small vessels. With regard to large vessels currently running on diesel, improved operational efficiency measures will be adopted in Table 20. High Ambition scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. 100% of government vessels and private sector vessels as a first step. The GSS would also purchase and operate at (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) least 10 low carbon “proof of concept” vessels in this scenario and implement a 25-year fleet replacement strategy with an increasing shift towards low carbon designs, as a mandatory requirement for new vessels purchased. All Source Gas BY 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 vessel imports will be subject to increasingly stringent Tier II efficiency requirements. A vessel financing modality GSS CO2 3,400 3,700 3,000 2,400 2,500 2,800 3,300 4,000 program will be designed and implemented to support public and private sector uptake of new technologies and Franchise CO2 3,600 3,900 3,100 2,200 2,200 2,300 2,600 2,900 Fiji’s franchise scheme will need to be amended to favour use of low carbon vessels and operational efficiencies. Economical CO2 67,100 72,100 57,200 41,700 41,100 42,500 48,000 54,600 As in the High Ambition scenario, Fiji will adopt regulations to impose penalties on the use of fossil fuel-powered Fishing CO2 25,400 27,900 26,400 24,200 25,800 28,600 34,800 42,300 vessels, promote low carbon provisions for new and renewed sea route licenses for economic routes, and propose to establish a low carbon maritime technology industry hub. Tourism CO2 33,600 36,900 34,900 32,000 34,200 37,800 46,000 56,000 Small Boats CO2 21,700 24,700 27,200 26,500 23,200 17,800 11,800 5,600 Under this scenario emissions would peak before 2020 and decline thereafter. Other CO2 19,200 20,900 18,700 16,400 18,600 21,600 26,300 32,000 In addition to the assumptions for the three scenarios above, this scenario assumes: alternative maritime fuels will Total CO2e 174,000 190,100 170,500 145,400 147,600 153,400 172,800 197,400 be available commercially internationally, all GSS vessels will use zero emissions technology by 2050, and a “hub and spoke” model will be adopted for all outer island connectivity routes. Figure 44. High Ambition scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. Table 21. Very High Ambition scenario for Domestic Maritime Transport. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GSS CO2 3,400 3,700 3,000 2,000 1,300 500 0 0 Franchise CO2 3,600 3,800 2,400 1,000 600 100 0 0 Economical CO2 67,100 69,900 44,300 19,200 10,600 2,500 0 0 Fishing CO2 25,400 27,600 24,500 18,000 12,400 5,500 0 0 Tourism CO2 33,600 36,600 32,400 23,900 16,400 7,300 0 0 Small Boats CO2 21,700 24,700 27,200 24,900 19,500 11,500 1,000 0 Other CO2 19,200 20,900 18,500 13,600 9,400 4,200 0 0 Total CO2e 174,000 187,200 152,300 102,600 70,200 31,600 1,000 0 104 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 105 Figure 45. Very High Ambition scenario – Domestic Maritime Transport. 4.3.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High Level Costing “International Significant progress is now being made at the international level on the policy drivers leadership on for maritime decarbonisation and there is demonstrable progress on development and commercialisation of an increasing range of low carbon maritime technological climate change solutions. This strongly indicates that, globally, this sector is about to undergo long- and shipping by term and far-reaching technological change from intensive fossil fuel use to low carbon Fiji provides a alternatives. significant opportunity International leadership on climate change and shipping by Fiji and other Pacific SIDS provides a significant opportunity to harness climate awareness and financing to harness climate to promote external investment into maritime decarbonisation in Fiji. This, in turn, awareness and provides the opportunity to completely overhaul the domestic maritime sector to vessels and technologies, that are not only low emission but also more affordable, financing to promote accessible, and appropriate for Fiji. This will be an ambitious agenda, however, the external investment savings in fuel imports and the potential for Fiji to become the primary low carbon into maritime maritime hub for the Pacific region (with the associated economic, commercial, and employment benefits that could accrue), provide strong positive incentives for adopting decarbonisation” these measures. It is necessary for Fiji to lead in this area in order to ensure that new low emission measures and technologies are developed which are appropriate for Fiji, other SIDS, and coastal LDCs. It is highly likely that significant carbon penalties (taxes, levies, etc.) will be levelled across the global maritime industry in the next 5-10 years, Comparison of Scenarios making all maritime users of fossil fuel subject to increasing costs for not transitioning The comparative result of all four scenarios is provided in Figure 46. away from carbon, which will inevitably affect the Fiji domestic industry. At a national level, an integrated, whole-of-sector approach is required for Figure 46. Comparison of scenarios – Domestic Maritime Transport. decarbonisation to be effectively achieved, requiring full stakeholder buy-in across the sector. The government must create a complete enabling environment for this to happen; the judicious use of economic instruments will be a key tool. Actions to initiate preliminary decarbonisation measures for this sector are already contained in numerous existing policies; although, to date, these have been implemented inconsistently. These policies should be reviewed as the basis for preparing a maritime sector action plan. As decarbonisation of this sector must be a long-term process, given the long-life expectancy of the primary assets, the foundation must be set early. As part of this process, Fiji will need to undertake more concerted efforts to improve the accuracy and extent of data collected for the maritime sector. Actions for initial implementation include: transitioning 2-stroke engines in small vessels to 4-stroke engines (costing USD 0.5-1 million), coupled with a longer-term shift to wind and electric hybrids; use of government vessels as demonstration models, coupled with financing modality packages to prompt private sector uptake of successful trials (costing between USD 10-100 million) and incentivising key market sectors to lead in the transition (such as the maritime tourism sector). The inclusion of shoreside (port) emissions could be possible if one of two policies were considered in the future. The first would be large-scale practice of powering shoreside-stored reefer containers from the grid. A much larger impact would result from requiring large berthed vessels to use shoreside connections to the grid to provide their power needs (“cold ironing”). However, neither of these policies is considered in this LEDS as there would be significant impact on electricity sector generation needs and associated investments. Initial emission reductions can be readily achieved in this sector using existing technologies and operational practices at low investment costs. At the same time, however, achieving the total reductions required for deep decarbonisation will require successful introduction of new and currently commercially unavailable technologies and fuels. Details of indicative costs are given in Annex A. 106 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 107

4.4 DOMESTIC AIR TRANSPORT “Domestic

4.4.1 Overview airlines play an This section examines the domestic air transport component for Fiji’s LEDS. Domestic important role in air transport encompasses emissions from domestic flights only. Fiji’s economic The Fijian Government’s Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) is responsible for the development” safe, efficient, and effective regulation of air transport in Fiji. It ensures necessary compliance with International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) standards through its regulatory arm, the Civil Aviation Authority of Fiji (CAAF). Airports Fiji Limited (AFL), renamed Fiji Airports Limited in May 2018, administers the operation of Nadi and Nausori International Airports and the operation of 13 other government airports throughout Fiji. The government continues to develop the infrastructure of the 15 airports operated by Fiji Airports Limited including Nadi, Nausori, and Rotuma.105 People rely on domestic airlines to travel within Fiji and to access crucial services. The average load factor in the last three years has increased from 50% before 2013 to 70%. This improvement is mainly due to the introduction of new planes. Domestic airlines play an important role in Fiji’s economic development. Fiji Link Airlines continues to be the principal domestic operator. It uses Nadi Airport as its main base but also operates flights out of Suva to Levuka, Savusavu, Taveuni, and Kadavu which are in addition to their existing operations between Suva to Nadi and Suva to Labasa. Fiji Link Airlines also connects Nadi and Suva to Rotuma where the runway has recently been extended allowing larger planes to operate. Fiji Link has a fleet of two ATR 72-600, one ATR 42-600, and three De Havilland Twin Otters.106 Another 100% locally-owned domestic airline, Northern Air, uses Nausori Airport as its main base operating a fleet of six aircrafts (one Britten Norman Islander, one Britten Norman Trilander BN2, and four Embraer Banderaintes). It offers flights to Taveuni, Savusavu, Labasa, Levuka, Moala, and Nadi. It also offers a full charter service. 108 Other commercial domestic operators offering non-scheduled services include Pacific Island Air, Turtle Airways, Air Wakaya, and Laucala Air. Pacific Island Air, which mainly operates seaplanes, is based at Nadi Airport and provides charters to island resorts.

4.4.2 Emission Sources Summary of Emission Sources Emissions from domestic aviation are largely the result of the combustion of fossil fuel for aircraft operation, such as Jet A1 fuel (kerosene) and Avgas (petrol) fuel. For example, Fiji Link’s ATR 72 planes use Jet A1 fuel on flights between Nadi, Suva, and Labasa and the De Havilland twin otters use Avgas fuel on all other domestic flights. In the Fiji TNC108 to the UNFCCC, total fuel consumption amounted to 1.8 million litres of avgas and 3.7 million litres of Jet A1 fuel per annum. For purposes of this LEDS, and following the TNC data, these numbers are rounded up to 2.5 million litres and 5.0 million litres, respectively, to account for fuel use in other aircraft, delays, and charter flights. 105Department of Civil Aviation. (2018). Licensing Procedures. Accessed 30th August 2018. Available at www. civilaviation.gov.fj/licensing-procedures. 106Fiji Airways. (2018). Our Fleet. Accessed 30th August 2018. Available at https://www.fijiairways.com/about-fiji- airways/our-fleet/. 107Northern Air. (2018). Accessed 30th August 2018. Available at https://www.northernair.com.fj/. 108Government of Fiji. (2018c). Fiji Third National Communication (TNC) to the UNFCCC. 108 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 109 Activity in domestic aviation is measured in passenger Committees and the two International Airports 4.4.4 Methodology Dialogue with stakeholders began with an initial kilometre (pkm). The LEDS uses 2013 as the base year subsidiary Aviation Facilitation Committees; and consultation with the Department of Civil Aviation, and for air transport, during which there was a total of 38,950 Model and Methodology Used then with a larger group during the second round of • Overseeing the continuous implementation of the pkm travelled, according to FBoS. The four LEDS scenarios for air transport were national consultations with a workshop held on the air subsidy scheme, to encourage air operators developed using the LEAP model. 28th of June, 2018 which involved senior officers from onto routes in Fiji deemed uneconomical via a Type of Emissions the Department of Civil Aviation and from Fiji Airports tender process; domestic airline operators use the The types of emissions from the above sources are Data Used, Data Sources, and Assumptions Limited who contributed to the proposed scenarios. government subsidies to facilitate trade, tourism, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. IPCC 2006 Suggestions included considering the use of biofuels and public travel needs that are essential especially Fuel intensity for domestic flights is assumed to be default emission factors are used (an average of 72.5 kg/ (B5) to offset emissions from domestic aviation, to Fiji’s outer island communities which rely a great 5 MJ/pkm113 and is held constant in future years. For TJ for both the fuels JetA1 and Avgas was used, which is offsetting emissions through the international carbon deal on aviation services. all scenarios, domestic aviation activity is assumed to within the IPCC limits).109 market, considering commercial and private helicopters CAAFA established the Civil Aviation Authority of Fiji, increase at 4% per annum on average based on past in the analysis, the possibility of a certification scheme which is a Statutory Authority tasked to ensure that trends in the sector and assumed growth of 4% GDP/

4.4.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory for low emission airlines, and whether military aircraft the highest safety standards are met and services capita per annum. GDP/domestic aviation activity should be considered in the LEDS (there are none in Framework are provided in an efficient manner, meeting both elasticity is assumed to be one. the Fijian military). Although no specific stakeholders The primary legislation covering aviation in Fiji includes the regulatory requirements and the needs of its The key data sources for the domestic aviation sector from the air transport sector attended the third national the Civil Aviation Act (CAA) [CAP 174], Civil Aviation customers.111 The Authority is also responsible for include: stakeholder workshop, several relevant comments Authority of Fiji Act (CAAFA) [CAP 174A], and the Civil overseeing the National Civil Aviation Management Aviation (Reform) Act (CARA).110 The Department of Civil Plans (NCAMP) and policies aligned to support the ICAO • FRCS: data for liquid fuel and gas imports; were raised, most notably about the selection of electric planes as the best zero emission option (and the only Aviation is the custodian of these Acts and is accountable regional and global aviation safety, security, efficiency, • FBoS: general data; and currently viable option). to the Minister for Civil Aviation through the Solicitor General and Permanent Secretary for Civil Aviation in and environment initiatives and goals. This is to ensure • Airports Fiji: passenger activity data. that the national aviation legislation, regulations, and 4.4.5 Low Emission Development the provision of sound advice that ensures the effective standards are regularly reviewed and harmonised with Limitations and Uncertainties Scenarios and efficient regulation of air transport within Fiji. Under international best practices and standards to further these regulations, the department is responsible for the raise Fiji’s safety and security record. One major limitation for this component is that fuel BAU Unconditional Scenario following functions: consumption data is not available from individual Airports Fiji has a Carbon Management Policy in place, domestic airline companies; hence, TNC data is used The BAU Unconditional scenario assumes no external • Establishing Air Services Agreements with the main aims include: for calibrating the model for fuel intensity. The TNC air financial support and that Fiji will continue to rely on sovereignties wishing to generate trade, tourism links, and diplomatic relations with Fiji through the • Conduct relevant research and data collection to transport model was constructed using airline schedules its own resources to implement mitigation actions. For identify and control activities of Fiji Airports that for Fiji national flights and emissions were calculated demand under this scenario, all domestic air travel is provisions of air transportation; using IPCC values.114 Also due to the unavailability of serviced by aircraft in current fleets using fossil fuels generate carbon; • Facilitating requests for non-scheduled international • Develop plans to monitor carbon emitting activities official tourist number projections, we have used the (Jet A1 and Avgas). air operators who wish to make a landing or over past trend to estimate the growth. Projected emissions in the BAU Unconditional scenario and develop a baseline;112 flight within the Flight Information Region (FIR); are provided in Table 22. • Facilitating the issuance of air service permits to • Ensure a third party can review and verify data; Stakeholder Consultation Process international operators wishing to provide scheduled • Consider low carbon alternatives; Key stakeholders invited to discuss the domestic air transport components of the LEDS included: the air services into and out of Fiji in accordance with the • Create awareness; and Ministry of Justice and Civil Aviation, the Civil Aviation Air Services Agreement; • Work closely with all stakeholders and airlines. Authority of Fiji, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, • Chairing the National Civil Aviation Intelligence the Department of Tourism, domestic airlines, the Air Community Committee as well as the National Transport Licensing Board (ATLB), Air Terminal Services Aviation Security Committee including the Airport (Fiji), Fiji Airports Limited, the World Bank, the Fiji hotel Aviation Security Committees for both Nadi and tourism associations, private tourist operators, and International Airport and Nausori International the Pacific Island Development Forum. Airport, and representing the Ministry for Civil Aviation in the National Aviation Facilitation 109https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/2_Volume2/V2_3_ 111Laws of Fiji. Accessed 30th August 2018. Available at www.paclii.org/fj/ 113Based on data from the TNC. Ch3_Mobile_Combustion.pdf. legis/sub_leg/caa1976anr2009491.rtf. 114See for example: https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CarbonOffset/Pages/default.aspx 110Laws of Fiji. Accessed 30th August 2018. Available at www.paclii.org/fj/ 112http://airportsfiji.com/includes/AFL-Carbon-Management-Policy-2016. legis/sub_leg/caa1976anr2009491. pdf 110 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 111 Table 22. BAU Unconditional scenario for Domestic Air Transport. Efficiency measures would be adopted starting in 2020, during which 4% of passenger activity (pkm) would be (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) serviced with efficient (newer) aircrafts, increasing to 40% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. Projected emissions for the BAU Conditional scenario are provided in Table 23. Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Av gas or jet a1 fuel CO2 14,000 17,000 21,000 27,000 34,000 41,000 50,000 58,000 67,000 Table 23. BAU Conditional scenario for Domestic Air Transport. CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) N2O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,000 Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total CO2e 14,000 17,000 21,000 27,000 34,000 41,000 50,000 58,000 68,000 Av gas or jet a1 fuel CO2 14,129 17,475 20,927 25,641 31,361 37,326 43,977 49,822 56,415 CH4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Figure 47. BAU Unconditional scenario – Domestic Air Transport. N2O 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 Total CO2e 14,252 17,598 21,050 25,763 31,484 37,449 44,099 49,945 56,537 Figure 48. BAU Conditional scenario – Domestic Air Transport. The solar-at-gate is an ICAO initiative which replaces mitigation actions. For demand under this scenario, diesel generators at airports with solar PV.115 This action all domestic air travel is serviced by aircraft using could be part of BAU scenarios. Establishing solar PV at fossil fuels (Jet A1 and Avgas). In addition, the scenario all the airports will be a sub-set of Fiji’s 100% renewable envisions adoption of energy efficiency measures, such Biojet fuel will start to be used in 2030, initially for 2% of passenger activity (pkm), and then rising to 20% of electricity programme. as improving load factor and reducing fuel consumption passenger activity by 2040 and 40% by 2050. The fuel economy of Biojet fuelled planes is assumed to be the same by changing the types and direction of landing (i.e., as for efficient aircraft, i.e. 4 MJ/km. The emission factor used for Biojet fuel is 75% of the emission factor of fossil BAU Conditional Scenario improved air traffic management at all airports).116 fuelled planes (based on the assumption that 25% Biojet fuel will be blended with conventional jet fuel). The BAU Conditional scenario assumes some Adopting these efficiency measures is expected to international financial support is available to implement reduce fuel intensity from 5 MJ/pkm to 4 MJ/pkm. 115https://www.icao.int/Meetings/greenairports/Documents/2.%20Steve%20Barret.pdf 116Energy efficiency measures cannot be adopted unilaterally by airlines and need to be discussed, agreed, and implemented with a number of key stakeholders. 112 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 113 The same energy efficiency measures and assumptions used in the BAU Conditional scenario will be adopted in the Very High Ambition Scenario High Ambition scenario. Under this scenario, short haul electric planes will be introduced starting in 2040 covering 2% of passenger activity Projected emissions for the High Ambition scenario are provided in Table 24. (pkm), increasing to 20% of all passenger activity by 2050. The fuel intensity of electric planes is assumed to be 2.8 MJ/pkm. Table 24. High Ambition scenario for Domestic Air Transport. The same assumptions for adopting energy efficiency and biojet fuel measures used in the High Ambition scenario (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) will be adopted in the Very High Ambition scenario. Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Projected emissions for the Very High Ambition scenario are provided in Table 25. Av gas or jet a1 fuel CO2 14,129 17,475 20,927 25,641 31,361 33,593 35,181 34,065 32,237 CH4 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 Table 25. Very High Ambition scenario for Domestic Air Transport. N2O 121 149 179 219 268 287 301 291 275 (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Biojet fuel CO2 0 0 0 0 0 2,488 5,997 10,428 16,118 Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 Av gas or jet a1 fuel CO2 14,129 17,475 20,927 25,641 31,361 33,593 35,181 29,198 21,491 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 21 51 89 138 CH4 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 3 Total CO2e 14,252 17,627 21,109 25,863 31,634 36,374 41,485 44,790 48,638 N2O 121 149 179 219 268 287 301 250 184 Biojet fuel CO2 0 0 0 0 0 2,488 5,997 10,428 16,118 Figure 49. High Ambition scenario – Domestic Air Transport. CH4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 N2O 0 0 0 0 0 21 51 89 138 Total CO2e 14,252 17,627 21,109 25,863 31,634 36,395 41,536 39,971 37,937 Figure 50. Very High Ambition scenario – Domestic Air Transport. 114 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 115 Comparison of Scenarios The comparative result of all four scenarios addressing domestic air transport is provided in Figure 51. Figure 51. Comparison of scenarios – Domestic Air Transport.

4.4.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High- Level Costing “The Very Implementation of the High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios can reduce High Ambition CO emissions by 20,000 metric tonnes and 30,000 metric tonnes, respectively, by 2050. 2 scenario will see This would require the introduction of biojet fuel around year 2030, with incremental increase of 20% of passenger activity to be serviced by biojet fuelled planes by 2040 introduction of and further increases to 40% by 2050. This to be complemented with energy efficiency electric planes by measures, such as improving load factor and changing landing type. The Very High Ambition scenario will see introduction of electric planes by 2040 with 20% of all 2040 with 20% passenger activity to be serviced by electric planes 2050. of all passenger “The Very Replacing older aircraft with efficient new planes would cost around USD 500-600 activity to be High Ambition million. Introducing biojet fuel is not expected to create financial burden as the cost serviced by scenario will would be comparable to traditional fuels. Powering all off-grid airports and using solar-at-gate for airplanes at these airports could be part of transforming Fiji’s electric planes see introduction domestic air sector to renewable energy. The cost of these two measures is estimated 2050” of electrical at approximately USD 20 million. Costs of electric aircraft should be investigated further in the future as these technologies are still in the development stage and planes by 2040 should be examined again when commercially mature. with 20% of There will be an ongoing need from the BAU Unconditional scenario to the Very High all passenger Ambition scenario to continue to improve on energy efficiency, such as introducing activity to be energy efficient planes by 2020. Fiji will, therefore, need to formulate national policy and regulatory frameworks on the use of energy efficient planes, with biojet fuel and serviced by” electric planes technology in the period from 2020 and beyond. electric planes 2050 116 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 117

4.5 AFOLU Around 285,000 hectares of permanent crops are climax stage in which biomass production and biomass “AFOLU combines cultivated in Fiji.120 According to the 2009 National degradation balance each other out. These forests can possibilities for 4.5.1 Overview This section examines the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Agricultural Census,121 the main crops cultivated are sugarcane (57,200 ha), cassava (15,500 ha), dalo (15,200 store significant amounts of carbon, but only sequester additional carbon to a limited extent. reducing GHG component for Fiji’s LEDS. AFOLU deals with activities in the areas of land use, ha), coconuts (15,000 ha), yaqona (8,900 ha), and rice Afforestation of non-forested areas is particularly emissions with land use change, forestry, and agriculture. With regard to mitigation potentials, this (3,600 ha). The other main crops included ginger, suitable for sequestering additional quantities of CO2 and eggplant, and tropical fruits. The main livestock raised in possibilities for sector occupies a special position, since it combines possibilities for reducing GHG emissions with possibilities for increasing removals of atmospheric CO . The potential Fiji are beef and dairy cattle, poultry, goats, and pigs. thus increasing the sink function of the forestry sector. Particularly fast-growing tree species and corresponding increasing 2 for emission reductions results from changed land management and livestock farming There are three basic types of agriculture in Fiji: (1) silvicultural management methods offer a high potential removals of and avoided deforestation and forest degradation. The potential for increased removals subsistence, (2) semi commercial, and (3) commercial. for carbon sequestration. Harvesting interventions in is mainly through forest management and afforestation. AFOLU contributes about Small farms dominate Fiji’s agriculture; about 44% forests generally lead to a loss of biomass and therefore atmospheric CO2” a quarter of global net anthropogenic GHG emissions, mainly from deforestation of the farms are less than one hectare in size, while a reduce carbon stocks. This is especially true for and forest degradation, as well as agricultural emissions from livestock farming, small number of farms (0.2%) manage areas over 100 permanent deforestation. When intervening in natural tillage, and fertiliser use. In addition to its importance for GHG emissions, the sector ha. As a result, subsistence agriculture continues to forests, it should be noted that only a small proportion provides a wide range of co-benefits, including ecosystem services. Land management play a significant role in the Fijian agriculture system, of the wood that is removed from the standing wood ensures food security, makes a decisive contribution to safeguarding the quality of accounting for up to one third of total production.122 In volume is actually removed from the forest and utilized. life (especially in rural populations), provides renewable raw materials and energy terms of income structure, 26% of households earn less Often considerable quantities of wood remain unused sources, and preserves natural habitats and their biodiversity. Therefore, measures to than 25% and 58% of households more than 50% of their as harvest waste in the forest. Heavy use interventions reduce emissions and increase removals cannot be considered in isolation but must household income from agricultural activity. can overstrain the resilience of forest ecosystems always consider the effects of other demands on the sector. and therefore lead to forest degradation. In contrast, In 2015, the agricultural sector contributed FJD About 60% of Fiji’s land area is covered by forest. The total forest area (1.162 million sustainable forest management intervenes gently in 541.8 million (8.1%) to GDP.123 Livestock alone (FJD ha) consists of native forest (87%) and plantation forest (13%).117 In addition, around forest stands and can lead to an increase in biomass 52.8 million) accounts for about 0.8% of GDP. Total 50,000 ha are stocked with mangroves and are treated in the blue carbon section. A growth and, thus, carbon sequestration (if the rules of agricultural production in Fiji is 295.536 metric tons, of forest area change assessment, which was carried out on the basis of satellite data, good forest practice are observed). which 14% (40.085 t) is cattle farming and 86% (255.451 shows an error-adjusted annual forest loss of around 2500 ha for the period 2006- t) is arable farming. In 2015 food and live animals Although harvesting wood reduces the amount of carbon 2016. Approximately 1,800 ha were newly forested every year during the same period.118 worth FJD 465.5 million were exported, of which sugar stored in forests, this reduction must not be equated The main drivers of deforestation are commercial and smallholder agriculture. The contributed FJD 129.4 million, and FJD 803.4 million with an immediate release of CO2. Instead, some of the traditional practices of shifting cultivation (migratory agriculture) have gradually been worth were imported (including FJD 109 million worth wood harvested is either converted into durable wood replaced by commercial agriculture in order to establishing cash crops such as kava of wheat and meslin, FJD 200 million worth of fresh products in which the carbon remains fixed, or the wood and taro, which are a common cause of deforestation at the forest frontier. Timber fish, and FJD 42.4 million worth of rice). The sector has harvested is used energetically, thus, avoiding additional harvesting is the main driver of forest degradation. Although commercial harvesting actively employed close to two-thirds of the labour force. emissions from fossil fuels. In addition to energetic in native forests has been largely replaced by timber extraction from plantations, substitution, positive carbon effects are also created by harvesting for domestic and informal markets continues to drive unregulated forest 4.5.2 Emission Sources wood processing, which generally requires less energy degradation. in the production of goods than in the production of Summary of Emission Sources alternative, non-renewable materials. The carbon effects The forest sector accounts on average for 1.2% of GDP and 4.1% of export earnings.119 of wood use can be quantified by life cycle analyses. Agriculture and forestry are by far the most important In 2016, FJD 31.8 million worth of wood chips or particles and FJD 25.7 million worth of For the sake of simplicity and to avoid double counting, contributors of emissions in the AFOLU sector in Fiji. mahogany were exported. Forest management has shifted from timber production to emissions from wood utilization are included in the Forests can be sources as well as sinks of greenhouse conservation and sustainable management, focusing more on the social functions of AFOLU sector in this report. This means that there are gases. Trees remove atmospheric CO2 via photosynthesis forests with the aim to improve the quality of water resources, improving agricultural no calculated emissions from the energetic use of woody and store it as carbon in their woody components. Tree land, contributing to biodiversity protection and climate change mitigation, and biomass. growth increases the carbon storage of forests. Natural reducing vulnerability to natural disasters, particularly floods. forests unaffected by human activity eventually reach a 117FAO. (2010). Global forest resources assessment 2010: Main Report. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; and FAO. (2015). 120Ministry of Agriculture. (2014). Fiji 2020 agricultural sector policy agenda. 121Republic of Fiji. (2009). National Agricultural Census - 2009 Report. Suva: FAO, Fiji Department of Agriculture. Global forest resources assessment 2015. Rome: FAO. 118SPC. (2018). Forest change dectection Fiji. Suva: SPC. 122Cole, S. (2017). Fiji crops sector strategy. 119Republic of Fiji. (2014). Second national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Suva: Ministry of Foreign 123http://www.agriculture.gov.fj/images/Production%20Chart.pnghttp://www.agriculture.gov.fj/images/Production%20Chart.png Affairs. 118 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 119 In Fiji, the current annual emissions and removals for deforestation, logging, and For Fiji, different data sources are available that can be used to assess the composition of sector emissions. “Emissions from associated forest degradation, as well as current removals and emissions from Although the data sources indicate different orders of magnitude of the emissions, they offer a relatively plantation management, are shown in Figure 52. consistent picture of the composition of emissions from different management areas. Emissions estimates for the agriculture can be agricultural sector are based on information from Food and Agriculture Organisation Corporate Statistical Database roughly separated Figure 52. Annual removals and emissions in Fiji’s forest sector.124 (FAOSTAT),125 the Agricultural Census 2009,126 and the Animal Health and Production (AHP) Report 2015.127 into emissions from Figure 53 shows emissions for different areas of the agricultural sector in 2004 and 2015 using data from FAOSTAT. managing croplands, The largest emissions are caused by enteric fermentation, manure left on pasture, and manure management. Emissions from the use of synthetic fertiliser and rice cultivation are significantly lower. Other emissions from crop livestock farming and farming play a negligible role. the use of fertilisers” Figure 53. Emissions for different areas of the agricultural sector. In contrast to forestry, agriculture is strictly a source of GHGs. Emissions from agriculture can be roughly separated into emissions from managing croplands and emissions from livestock farming. In addition, there are emissions from the use of fertilisers, which can mainly be applied to croplands and, to a lesser extent, also to grasslands. By far the largest emissions are caused by livestock farming. Ruminants emit methane (CH4) during digestion and excrement from all livestock The values shown in Figure 53 have been validated using various approaches. A validation with data on synthetic species lead to GHG emissions from manure. The amount of GHG emissions from fertiliser application shows that the respective annual emissions in the period from 2010-2014 are well below 25 livestock farming depends on a number of factors, e.g., whether the livestock are Gg CO2e.128 Research indicates that rice cultivation in 2014 yielded emissions of 2.98 Gg CO2e.129 Emissions from kept indoors or outdoors, the feed used, and the treatment of the manure. When livestock farming were verified with data from the Agricultural Census 2009 and the AHP report. IPCC default values quantifying the emissions from agriculture, a distinction is usually made between the for per animal head emissions from enteric fermentation and manure production were utilized to calculate the total following management areas: livestock management, enteric fermentation, manure emissions from livestock by means of a Tier 1 approach.130 Low emissions from 2010 onwards are due to the fact that management, manure left on pasture and manure applied to soils, and from arable the AHP report only covers livestock in the formal sector (Table 26). farming, rice cultivation, burning of croplands and savannas, crop residues, cultivation of organic soils, and the application of synthetic fertilisers. 124For the forestry sector, data from the 2006 national forest inventory and the forest area change assessment 125http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home 126Republic of Fiji. (2009). National Agricultural Census - 2009 Report. Suva: FAO, Fiji Department of Agriculture. 2006-2016 (provided by SPC) are used, as well as plantation data provided by Fiji Pine Ltd and Fiji Hardwood Ltd. 127Ministry of Agriculture. (2015). Animal health and production report. For plantation growth, IPCC default values have been applied. 128Chand, D., Mani, F.S., Maata, M., Macanawai, A. (2017). Evaluation of methane emissions from the agricultural sector in Fiji. Suva, Fiji: USP. 129IPCC. (2006a). Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use. Eggleston, S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K. (Eds.). 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 4. Japan: IGES. 130Republic of Fiji. (2009). National Agricultural Census - 2009 Report. Suva: FAO, Fiji Department of Agriculture; and Ministry of Agriculture. (2015). Animal health and production report. 120 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 121 Table 26. Emissions from livestock in Gg CO2e. Crop and livestock production for food contribute to agricultural land can only take place in accordance with emissions from agriculture in a variety of ways. The the iTaukei Land Trust Act and taking into account the Livestock type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 application of synthetic and organic fertilisers, the interests of the local population. Beef 131.4 n.a. 46.7 55.9 66.2 77.4 70.2 growth of nitrogen fixing plants, irrigation practices The National Forest Policy 2007 specifies the sector’s Dairy 185.5 26.6 54.9 58.6 59.5 85.7 96.4 and the drainage of organic soils can lead to increased goal: “Sustainable management of Fiji’s forests to Goat 14.8 3.2 3.4 3.6 5.3 5.6 5.9 availability of nitrogen in the soil, which in turn leads to maintain their natural potential and to achieve greater emissions of N2O. Livestock, especially ruminants like Sheep 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.7 2.2 3.1 social, economic and environmental benefits for current cattle, produce CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation Pig 28.9 n.a. 9.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 13.8 and future generations.” The Fiji REDD-Plus Policy132 in the course of their normal digestion and both CH4 Horses 15.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. is embedded in the National Forest Policy and has the and N2O emissions resulting from manure treatment Poultry 2.1 n.a. 9.5 7.3 8.6 6.7 5.5 overall objective of “enhancing the national forest carbon and storage methods. Burning of crop residues also balance.” It will “contribute towards the development of Total 380.0 31.4 125.4 138.8 153.6 188.9 195.0 produces CH4 and N2O. a national carbon trading policy” and “strengthen the Note, the following emissions are not considered in capacities to facilitate access to international financing For the agricultural sector, Fiji’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC reported GHG emissions of 977 Gg the AFOLU sector scenarios, but rather in energy and mechanisms.” Government commitment for Reducing CO2e for 2004. The TNC shows relatively constant annual GHG emissions of 550 Gg CO2e for the period 2006-2011. transport sectors: Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation This value is considerably lower than the average annual emissions of 887 Gg CO2e presented by FAOSTAT for the (REDD+) and for the emissions reduction program is same period as the TNC. For 2015, FAOSTAT reports annual GHG emissions from agriculture at 878 Gg CO2e. The • Emissions from sugar cane residues burned in sugar indicated in the National REDD+ Policy, the NCCP, the mills for energy production; annual GHG emissions according to Fiji’s TNC are about 40% below the emissions reported by FAOSTAT (Figure 54). National Forest Policy, and the recently launched Green While FAOSTAT updates historical data for livestock farming, manure management, and fertiliser application to fill • Emissions caused by the use of machinery in the Growth Framework for Fiji. The Fiji REDD-Plus Policy in missing data, the TNC refers to reported national data and applies no interpolations to fill gaps in the data. The management of forests and agricultural land; has the overall objective of enhancing the national national data only allow an IPCC Tier 1 approach, which is associated with an error margin of 30% or more. • Emissions caused by the transport of forestry and forest-based carbon balance by (1) supporting and agricultural goods; strengthening initiatives that address the drivers of Figure 54. Annual GHG emissions from agriculture as reported by FAOSTAT and the Fiji TNC. forest-based carbon emissions and (2) encouraging the • Emissions through the use of energy in the operation drivers of forest-based carbon sinks.133 According to the of stables; Emission Reduction Program Idea Note (ER-PIN),134 the • Emissions resulting from the production of food or Forestry Department – in partnership with private sector the processing of wood; players and landowners – is planning to establish about 77,400 ha plantations in Fiji over the next 15 years. • Emissions resulting from the production and transport of synthetic fertilisers; and The Fiji Agricultural Strategy 2020135 prioritises a diversified and economically and environmentally • Emissions from fuel consumption in fishing vessels. sustainable agriculture economy in Fiji and, thus, complements the National Green Growth Framework.

4.5.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory It emphasises renewable energy and the production of Framework feedstock for biofuels (e.g., cassava and sugarcane) in Activities in the AFOLU sector depend directly on order to reduce the country’s petroleum fuel importation land ownership conditions and their regulation in the bill. The Agricultural Sector Strategy highlights the need relevant laws and regulations. More than 80% of land to prepare a national land use plan and to introduce in Fiji is native land, which would be governed by the “climate change agriculture.” Enabling conditions for the Native Land Trust Board, according to the iTaukei Land agricultural sector have been covered by the Fiji crops Trust Act. These acts form the backbone of Fiji’s land sector strategy136 and the Fiji livestock sector strategy.137 Type of Emissions tenure system. Traditionally owned land is not for sale. Both include domestic policy support frameworks, Large amounts of CO2 move between the atmosphere and plant biomass through plant photosynthesis and Leases of iTaukei land, under the Land Trust Act, can institutional barriers, measures for capacity building and respiration. In the woody biomass of trees, atmospheric CO2 is stored as carbon over long periods of time. Reduction be issued for up to 99 years. Any expansion of forest and training, and cost estimates for individual activities. of the carbon stock of forests thus leads to the release of CO2. In non-forest ecosystems, such as grasslands or croplands, biomass is usually non-woody and the carbon it contains is released annually or within a few years. Non- CO2 emissions in the AFOLU sector are largely a product of microbial activity. The non-CO2 gases of primary concern 132Fiji Forestry Department. (2011). Fiji REDD-Plus Policy: Reducing emissions from deforesta on and forest degrada on in Fiji. Secretariat of the Pacific are methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Emissions of other nitrogenous gases, including NOx and NH3, can serve Community. as a source of subsequent N2O emissions.131 133Fiji Forestry Department. (2011). Fiji REDD-Plus Policy: Reducing emissions from deforesta on and forest degrada on in Fiji. Secretariat of the Pacific Community. 134FCPF. (2015). Emission reductions program idea note (ER-PIN) - Republic of Fiji. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Carbon Fund. 135Ministry of Agriculture. (2014). Fiji 2020 agricultural sector policy agenda. 136Cole, S. (2017). Fiji crops sector strategy. 137Livestock Sector Strategy Working Group, Ministry of Agriculture. (2016). Fiji livestock sector strategy. 131Republic of Fiji. (2009). National Agricultural Census - 2009 Report. Suva: FAO, Fiji Department of Agriculture; and Ministry of Agriculture. (2015). Animal health and production report. 122 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 123

4.5.4 Methodology The different data sources are associated with various Agriculture errors, some of which are unknown. The forest area Model and Methodology Used More limited data was available for the agricultural assessment for Fiji was subject to an extensive accuracy sector than for the forestry sector, as there are no The FAO Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM)138 was used to verify emissions from analysis, carried out according to the guidelines of current representative surveys covering the entire sector agricultural livestock farming. GLEAM simulates the bio-physical processes and activities along livestock supply the IPCC140 and the methodological framework of the (livestock and arable farming). The latest representative chains under a life cycle assessment approach. GLEAM provides: FCPF.141 survey, which provides reliable data for the whole sector, • Systematic, global coverage of six livestock species and their edible products: meat and milk from cattle, buffalo, In 2006, a sample-based field survey was carried out dates from 2009. The Ministry of Agriculture publishes sheep, and goats; meat from pigs; and meat and eggs from chickens; (National Forest Inventory). Using plots in the forest, the Animal Health and Production Report annually, measurement data on trees and descriptions of the and this LEDS uses the 2015 edition. Due to significant • Spatially explicit modelling of livestock distribution, climatic data, feed yields, and biophysical processes that forest stand were collected. Data on wood, biomass, and disease infestation at the beginning of the 2010s, allows the capture of local production drivers and/or constraints, environmental impacts, and intervention carbon were derived with models. Errors in this survey Fiji livestock was drastically reduced and gradually measures; and are composed of sampling errors, model prediction recovered in the following years. No information is • Estimation of GHG emissions from each stage of production: the model covers emissions of methane (CH4), errors, and non-statistical errors (e.g., measurement available on the recovery of livestock in the subsistence carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O), using an IPCC Tier 2 methodology, providing more accurate errors) and are likely to be in the range of 10-20%. sector. Data on agricultural land-use and temporary information on how animal feeding, herd, and manure management options can help in mitigation. crops should be less volatile than in the livestock sector. No uncertainty assessment is available for logging data. Therefore, the data from the 2009 Agricultural Survey GLEAM allows the definition of scenarios in which different aspects of the livestock (e.g., herd size, feed, maturity) Local foresters collect data on harvested volumes and were used for the base year 2015. are mapped. As the available data in Fiji are not sufficient for a complete parameterization of the model, the GLEAM areas using state-of-the-art methods (e.g., GPS for area analysis in part uses default values and information derived from the 2009 Agricultural Census. GLEAM is not used determination) and are therefore within a usual error Livestock data were taken from the 2009 Agricultural for direct calculation of emissions but to verify the order of magnitude derived according to IPCC TIER1 methods. The range of less than 10%. Census and the 2015 Animal Health and Production use of other models (e.g., AFOLU Carbon Calculator)139 was not possible due to lack of input data. Report. Only for 2009 do these figures reflect cattle No accuracy data are available for plantation data. stocks for both the subsistence and commercial sector. However, there are discernible data gaps in the Data Used, Data Sources, Assumptions, Limitations, and Uncertainties For the following years, only stocks for the commercial information on areas harvested and afforested. IPCC Forestry sector are available. default values were used for timber volume growth. These have an error range of 30-50%. Data for rice cultivation were taken from a review of the Table 27 presents the data sources that were used for the forestry sector. development of the rice industry,142 as provided by MOA Table 27. Data sources for the forestry sector. and are shown in Table 28. Data Source Reference period Description Provider Forest area change assessment 2006-2012 Visual interpretation of LANDSAT SPC Geoscience Division, Suva 2012-2016 TM data for forest area; derived classes: deforestation, forest remaining forest, afforestation; does not include areas of forest plantation National Forest Inventory 2006 Sample-based assessment of SPC Geoscience Division, Suva; more than 1,000 field plots with Ministry of Fisheries and Forests, measurements of tree and site Management Service Division, data and derived timber volume, Suva; GIZ, Suva biomass, and C-stock Plantations 2006-2016 Area of forest pine and mahogany Fiji Hardwood, Inc. plantations, including areas logged Fiji Pine, Inc. and reforested; logged volume Logging data 2006-2016 Logging volumes of harvesting Ministry of Fisheries and Forests, operations in concessions and Management Service Division, Suva harvested area Default values - Default values from the IPCC IPCC Guidelines for, e.g., forest growth in plantations 138http://www.fao.org/gleam/en/ 140IPCC. (2003). Good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and forestry. Japan: IGES. 139http://afolucarbon.org 141FCPF. (2016). Carbon fund methodological framework. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. 142Bong, B.B. (2017). Review of the development of the rice industry in Fiji. 124 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 125 Table 28. Rice area, production, and yield during 2010-2015. Equation 11.9 from the IPCC’s AFOLU Guidelines is used to estimate the emissions from the use of synthetic fertilisers. Default values (Table 11.3 from the IPCC Guidelines) are used for the emission factors and the Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 volatilization from synthetic fertilisers. The annual amount of synthetic fertilisers applied to soil is taken from Area (ha) 2 507 3 355 1 803 2 156 3 156 3 200 FAOSTAT. Since FAOSTAT only provides values until 2013, the average consumption of the years 2006 to 2013 is used Production (tonnes) 7 663 7 914 4 653 6 873 6 843 6 329 to estimate the consumption in the years 2014 and 2015 (Table 29). Yield (tonnes/ha) 3.01 2.36 2.58 3.19 2.20 2.00 Table 29. N-fertiliser and urea application.151 No specific emission data have been collected for the from less than 1% for, e.g., plant or animal management 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 agricultural sector for this strategy. The LEDS therefore on grazing lands, and more than 15% for manure N- fertiliser 4,220 4,025 6,758 2,747 2,435 4,101 4,020 3,662 3,996* 3,996* derives emissions on the basis of IPCC default values.143 management. application This corresponds to an IPCC Tier 1 approach associated (tonnes) As methane emissions from rice cultivation is not a with an error of 30-50%. In addition, the analysis uses Urea (tonnes) 453 458 632 948 453 151 605 432 516* 516* significant source and country-specific emission factors data from FAOSTAT on emissions from the agricultural were also not available, Fiji has applied the Tier 1 *estimate sector in Fiji. These data are based on national reports approach. Equations 5.1. and 5.3 in chapter 5.5, volume and adjustments made by FAO. FAOSTAT covers the Since the available stock densities for cattle for the years from 2010 onwards only include the stocks of the 4 of IPCC148 were applied to determine the methane areas of rice cultivation, synthetic fertilisers, enteric commercial sector, the data for beef and dairy cattle have been adjusted by adopting the subsistence sector stocks emissions from rice production.149 Area and production fermentation, manure applied to soils, manure left on of the 2009 Agricultural Census for the 2015 informal sector (Table 30). data were taken over from a review of rice production. pasture, manure management, burning – crop residuals, Table 30. Number of livestock by species. It is assumed that 50% of the total area planted is burning – savanna, crop residues, and cultivation of irrigated and the other 50% is rain fed. A total of 90 days organic soils. These data are also subject to an error Livestock type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 cultivation was taken into consideration. Based on the frame of 30-50%. Beef commercial 20,355 26,888 32,203 38,117 44,568 40,452 production data, a rice-straw ratio of 1:2 is assumed to According to IPCC, the increase in biomass stocks 144 calculate the amount of straw produced. The amount of subsistence 55,327 55,000* of annual crops in a single year is assumed equal to straw absorbed into the soil is determined on the basis total 75,682 26,888 32,203 38,117 44,568 95,452* biomass losses from harvest and mortality in that same of an equal mass basis equal to the dry weight of the Dairy commercial 22,551 8,469 17,500 18,699 18,958 27,341 30,742 year, thus, there is no net accumulation of biomass straw. subsistence 36,599 36,000* carbon stocks. Direct N2O emissions from urine and dung inputs to total 59,150 8,469 17,500 18,699 18,958 27,341 66,742* Other data grazed soil are calculated for cattle, pigs, and poultry *estimate by applying an emission factor of 0.02 Kg N2O-N/kg N For population estimates and projections, data from and for sheep and others the emission factor is 0.01 Kg Stakeholder Consultation Process FBoS has been used (this is supplemented with World N2O-N/kg N (taken from the TNC). Volume 4, Chapter Bank data to 2050 following discussions with FBoS).145 Key stakeholders invited to engage in consultations on AFOLU-related issues included: the Ministry of Agriculture, 10 of IPCC150 (Equation 10.25 and Tables 10.A4 -10.A8) is Data on the use of nitrogen fertilisers and urea the Ministry of Fisheries and Forest, the Fiji Crops and Livestock’s Council, the iTaukei Land Trust Board, several used to estimate emissions from manure management application were taken from the FAO database.146 private agricultural producers and non-governmental organisations, the Sustainable Energy Industry Association of following a Tier 1 approach. Again Tier 1 methodology is Assumptions used as the default emission factor of 0.01 Kg N2O-N/kg the Pacific Islands, Conservation International, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), N input was applied for the total amount of N-synthetic GIZ, SPC, and Pacific Island Development Forum. It should be noted that only a limited number of representatives The technical mitigation potential of various measures in fertiliser addition. from the agricultural sector took part in the stakeholder workshops, mostly with regard to plant breeding, livestock the AFOLU sector is based on a compilation presented in farming, and livestock feeding; there were no representatives from the informal sector. Stakeholders focused on IPCC’s AR5.147 The technical mitigation potential ranges forestry represented a comparably broad coverage of interests, although local communities were not present. Overall, in the agricultural sector, the mitigation options of plant management of croplands, set aside land use change (LUC) croplands, degraded soils restoration, biosolid application, and agroforestry were considered to 144IPCC. (2006a). Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use. Eggleston, S., University Press. 151http://ref.data.fao.org/dataset-data-filter?entryId=d1a87a6c-37a8-43be-bfdc-c5cb398a1956&tab=data 148IPCC. (2006a). Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use. Eggleston, S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K. (Eds.). 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 4. Japan: IGES. Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K. (Eds.). 2006 IPCC Guidelines 145World Bank. (2011). Population estimates and projections. for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 4. Japan: IGES. 146http://ref.data.fao.org/ 149Bong, B.B. (2017). Review of the development of the rice industry in Fiji. 147Smith, P., Bustamante, M., Ahammad, H., Clark, H., Dong, H., Elsiddig, 150IPCC. (2006a). Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use. Eggleston, S., E.A., Haberl, H., Harper, R., House, J.I., Jafari, M., Masera, O., Mbow, Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K. (Eds.). 2006 IPCC Guidelines C., Ravindranath, N.H., Rice, C.W., Robledo Abad, C., Romanovskaya, A., for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 4. Japan: IGES. Sperling, F., Tubiello, F. (2014), Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). In: Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., Zwickel, T., Minx, J.C. (Eds.). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge 126 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 127 have high technical feasibility. Fire management on grazing land, improved tillage in 4.5.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios “Stakeholders croplands, revegetation, restoration of organic soils, and cropland plant management Base Year (BY) were considered to have the lowest costs. High priority was assigned to improved plant recommended management in croplands and in grazing lands, livestock feeding, livestock breeding, A forest area change assessment is available for the forestry sector for the period 2006-2016. For the agricultural opportunities to set aside LUC croplands, degraded soils restoration, biosolid application, and sector, the latest reliable figures are available for 2015. Therefore, the years 2015 for the agricultural sector and integration of biomass production. With regard to forestry, afforestation, reforestation, improve forest 2016 for the forestry sector are defined as the base year (BY) for the simulations. Since the development of forest and forest management were all equally considered to have high technical feasibility, areas and forest carbon stocks are not subject to short-term fluctuations, no inconsistencies in the simulations harvesting through and reducing deforestation was considered to have the highest financial feasibility. result from this small time difference. Table 31 shows the emissions of the various areas of the agricultural and low impact Forest management was given the highest priority and reducing deforestation the forestry sectors. lowest. logging methods During the first national stakeholder consultation, participating stakeholders Table 31. Emissions and removals of the AFOLU sector. and addressing developed three visions for AFOLU: to reduce the amount of CO2 (and other emissions) degradation, which from the agriculture sector by supporting awareness and advocacy with farmers on Source Gas BY (2015/2016) [Gg] Gg CO2e Forestry have mutually organic farming, GHG emissions mitigation measures, sustainable land management, traditional farming, fuel-efficient machinery use, and a 60% reduction in the use of Logging1) CO2 174.29 174 reinforcing benefits synthetic fertilisers; to promote the sustainable conservation of forest habitats for Removals Plantations CO2 -1,539.27 -1,539 and can promote resilience and long-term prosperity with informed voluntary landowner participation; Emissions Plantations CO2 610.45 610 and to restore degraded forest resources with national planting/restoration exceeding timber recovery Deforestation CO2 717.75 718 logging/harvesting. During the second national stakeholder consultation on the 26th and green jobs” of June, 2018, questions mainly related to data sources and gaps (such as for the Afforestation CO2 -21.50 -22 Agriculture number of chickens and consideration of the information sector, which is not captured Livestock: enteric fermentation CH4 22.61 633 in FAOSTAT or in the IPCC 2009 and 2015 livestock numbers), and the need for certain Livestock: manure CH4 5.19 145 assumptions in forming emissions projections. Other stakeholders recommended opportunities to improve forest harvesting through low impact logging methods and N2O 0.46 123 addressing degradation, which have mutually reinforcing benefits and can promote Rice management CH4 0.38 11 timber recovery and green jobs. Synthetic fertiliser N2O 0.06 17 Urea fertilisation CO2 0.38 0 During the third stakeholder workshop on the 27th of August, 2018, participants raised questions about the differences between levels of emissions by different animal Total [CO2e]* CO2e* 871 species, whether cyclones would impact on future emissions projections (it would *GWP NH4: 28; N2O: 265152; 1) net emissions = emissions from logging removals from improved growth be limited), and the potential for sustainable biofuel use for electricity generation domestically (rather than exporting wood chips to China). BAU Unconditional Scenario In the forestry sector, BAU behaviour and the lack of external financing will leave emissions from afforestation, deforestation, and logging relatively unchanged to the year 2050. Under this scenario, the spread in plantation areas of African Tulip, an invasive tree species, will reduce the growth of commercial species. It is assumed that measures to contain the spread of African Tulip will limit losses in growth (and, thus, in removals) to 5%. Similarly, emissions from plantation use will decrease due to the decline in growth. The BAU Unconditional scenario assumes that emissions in the agricultural sector will remain almost unchanged, and that only existing policy measures would be implemented. This will mainly affect livestock farming, as breeding programs are expected to improve production from dairy cows and, thus, reduce emissions from enteric fermentation. However, as these improvements relate primarily to the commercial sector, the effect on total emissions remains small. The decline in rural households will reduce the number of livestock in the subsistence sector, accordingly, while at the same time increasing livestock in the commercial sector in order to secure food supplies. Thus, this strategy assumes an overall reduction of emissions from enteric fermentation in commercial livestock of 1%. If current practices are largely maintained, emissions from the AFOLU sector will decrease by around 4% to 840 Gg CO2e by 2050 (Table 32). 152http://www.ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/ghgp/Global-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28Feb%2016%202016%29_1.pdf 128 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 129 Table 32. BAU Unconditional scenario for AFOLU. Figure 55. BAU Unconditional scenario – AFOLU. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Logging CO2 174,290 174,290 174,000 173,709 173,419 173,128 172,838 172,547 Removals in CO2 -1,539,274 -1,539,274 -1,526,447 -1,513,619 -1,500,792 -1,487,965 -1,475,138 -1,462,310 Plantations Emissions from CO2 610,452 610,452 610,452 604,347 598,243 592,138 586,034 579,929 Plantations Deforestation CO2 717,750 717,750 705,788 693,825 681,863 669,900 657,938 645,975 Afforestation CO2 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 Livestock: CH4 633,055 633,055 632,528 632,000 631,473 630,945 630,418 629,890 enteric fermentation Livestock: CH4 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 manure N2O 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 Rice CH4 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 management Synthetic N2O 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 fertiliser Urea CO2 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 fertilisation Total CO2e 870,681 870,681 870,727 864,670 858,612 852,554 846,496 840,439 BAU Conditional Scenario Under this scenario, Fiji assumes there will be access to limited international “Promoting financing that can be used to improve its BAU scenario through increased plantation sustainable forest productivity, reduced emissions from logging of natural forests, and reduced of emissions from enteric fermentation. This scenario takes into account measures that management can were classified as a priority in the stakeholder workshops. avoid emissions in In the forestry sector, an improved BAU scenario involves promoting sustainable connection with forest management, which can be implemented, on the one hand, to avoid emissions timber harvesting in connection with timber harvesting measures and, on the other hand, to increase biomass production and thus carbon sequestration. At present, the mean annual measures and increment (MAI) in mahogany plantations is 6.3 m3 per ha per year (5.43 tCO2e per increase biomass ha per year, gravity=0.5 kgm-3), and in pine plantations is 10 m3 per ha per year (8.44 tCO2 per ha per year, gravity=0.49 kgm-3). An additional 20% increase in MAI would and thus carbon be achieved through improved plantation management (higher number of plants sequestration” planted, weeding, introduction of thinning regimes). Although emissions from timber harvesting in plantations would also increase from increased yield, net CO2 removals from improved plantation management would increase to 1,114 Gg CO2e by 2050. Consistent application of reduced impact logging in timber harvesting operations in 130 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 131 natural forests will further reduce the corresponding emissions by at least 10%, or 17 Gg CO2e, by 2050. By 2050 Figure 56. BAU Conditional scenario – AFOLU. the total contribution of the forestry sector to the reduction of emissions would, thus, amount to 261 Gg CO2e. In the agricultural sector, the technical mitigation potential of livestock farming is being further expanded. Assuming external financial support, emissions from enteric fermentation in commercial livestock will be reduced by 2%, or 6 Gg CO2e, by 2050. Compared to the base year, these assumptions suggest an emission reduction by 210 Gg CO2e to approximately 660 Gg CO2e in 2050 (Table 33). Table 33. BAU Conditional scenario for AFOLU. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Logging CO2 174,290 174,290 171,385 168,480 165,576 162,671 159,766 156,861 Removals in CO2 -1,539,274 -1,539,274 -1,590,583 -1,641,892 -1,693,201 -1,744,511 -1,795,820 -1,847,129 Plantations Emissions from CO2 610,452 610,452 610,452 634,870 659,288 683,706 708,124 732,542 Plantations Deforestation CO2 717,750 717,750 717,750 717,750 717,750 717,750 717,750 717,750 Afforestation CO2 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 -21,503 Livestock: CH4 633,055 633,055 632,000 630,945 629,890 628,835 627,780 626,725 enteric fermentation Livestock: CH4 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 145,296 manure N2O 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 123,028 Rice CH4 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 management Synthetic N2O 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 fertiliser Urea fertilisation CO2 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 Total CO2e 870,681 870,681 815,412 784,561 753,710 722,859 692,008 661,157 High Ambition Scenario In addition to the measures included in the BAU-conditional scenario, Fiji’s high ambition scenario includes additional activities to reduce emissions. In the forestry sector, an area of 10,000 ha will be reforested with mahogany or equivalent hardwoods by 2050, the MAI of plantations will be increase by 30%, and deforestation will be decreased by 20%. Compared to the BY emissions in the forestry sector, this will result in an additional 587 Gg CO2e being removed annually at the end of the observation period. When afforested stands are harvested at the end of their rotation period, the total emission reductions will be decreased by roughly 2%. In the agricultural sector, emissions from the use of synthetic fertilisers will be reduced by 1% by changing fertiliser rates and types, adjusting the time of application, increasing the precision of application, and using inhibitors. In the commercial livestock sector, emissions from enteric fermentation will be reduced by 5% and emissions from manure by 2%. These measures result in a reduction of the AFOLU sector’s emissions by almost 70% to 323 Gg (Table 34). 132 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 133 Table 34. High Ambition scenario for AFOLU. Figure 57. High Ambition scenario – AFOLU. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Logging CO2 174,290 174,290 171,385 168,480 165,576 162,671 159,766 156,861 Removals in CO2 -1,539,274 -1,539,274 -1,616,238 -1,693,201 -1,770,165 -1,847,129 -1,924,093 -2,001,056 Plantations Emissions from CO2 610,452 610,452 610,452 647,079 683,706 720,333 756,960 793,588 Plantations Deforestation CO2 717,750 717,750 693,825 669,900 645,975 622,050 598,125 574,200 Afforestation CO2 -21,503 -21,503 -36,325 -51,146 -65,967 -80,788 -95,609 -110,430 Livestock: enteric CH4 633,055 633,055 630,418 627,780 625,142 622,504 619,867 617,229 fermentation Livestock: manure CH4 145,296 145,296 145,054 144,811 144,569 144,327 144,085 143,843 N2O 123,028 123,028 122,823 122,617 122,412 122,207 122,002 121,797 Rice management CH4 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 Synthetic fertiliser N2O 16,640 16,640 16,613 16,585 16,557 16,530 16,502 16,474 Urea fertilisation CO2 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 Total CO2e 870,681 870,681 748,953 663,853 578,753 493,653 408,552 323,452 Very High Ambition Scenario Based on the recommendations of the ER-PIN,153 the very high ambition scenario assumes the afforestation of an area of 77,400 ha and the reduction of deforestation by 80%. Through intensive forest management measures and tree improvement, the MAI of plantations is increased by 40%, compared to today’s values, which seems feasible in view of the growth in comparable regions. In the agricultural sector, emission from enteric fermentation and from manure in commercial livestock will be reduced by 10% each and emissions from the application of synthetic fertilisers by 1%. 153FCPF. (2015). Emission reductions program idea note (ER-PIN) - Republic of Fiji. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Carbon Fund . 134 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 135 Under these assumptions, clear removals can be seen in the AFOLU sector from 2035 onwards. In 2050, net Figure 58. Very High Ambition scenario – AFOLU. removals of around 826 Gg CO2e will be achieved. The forestry sector, thus, compensates for all emissions from the agricultural sector and makes a significant contribution that can be credited to other sectors (Table 35). At a later stage, the afforested areas may be harvested. This would result in calculated emissions of about 3-5% of removals. Table 35. Very High Ambition scenario for AFOLU. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Logging CO2 174,290 174,290 171,385 168,480 165,576 162,671 159,766 156,861 Removals in CO2 -1,539,274 -1,539,274 -1,641,892 -1,744,511 -1,847,129 -1,949,747 -2,052,365 -2,154,984 Plantations Emissions from CO2 610,452 610,452 610,452 659,288 708,124 756,960 805,797 854,633 Plantations Deforestation CO2 717,750 717,750 622,050 526,350 430,650 334,950 239,250 143,550 Afforestation CO2 -21,503 -21,503 -136,219 -250,935 -365,651 -480,366 -595,082 -709,798 Livestock: CH4 633,055 633,055 627,780 622,504 617,229 611,953 606,678 601,403 enteric fermentation Livestock: CH4 145,296 145,296 144,085 142,874 141,663 140,453 139,242 138,031 manure N2O 123,028 123,028 122,002 120,977 119,952 118,927 117,901 116,876 Rice CH4 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 10,568 management Synthetic N2O 16,640 16,640 16,613 16,585 16,557 16,530 16,502 16,474 fertiliser Urea fertilisation CO2 0,379 0,379 0,379 0,379 0,379 0,379 0,379 0,379 Total CO2e 870,302 870,302 546,824 272,180 -2,461 -277,101 -551,743 -826,386 136 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 137 Comparison of Scenarios It should also be noted that the expansion of forestry production could include other The comparative results of all four scenarios for AFOLU is provided in Figure 59. benefits if measures are put in place to include in afforestation the three hardwood “By including in species customarily used for the construction of seafaring canoes: Intsia bijuga – Vesi, Agathis macrophylla – Dakua, and Calophyllum inophyllum – Damanu. From these afforestation the Figure 59. Comparison of scenarios – AFOLU. species, combined with a few others to provide the necessary organic pitch and fibres, hardwood species sustainable sea transport materials can be sourced alongside carbon sequestration in used for seafaring the agroforestry sector over the coming decades. canoes, Vesi, Dakua, While the development and implementation of Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems has already been initiated in the context of REDD+, and Damanu, corresponding systems are not yet available in the agricultural sector. In particular, sustainable sea there is a lack of basic information on the reliable derivation of emissions from livestock farming, which accounts for a large proportion of Fiji’s national emissions. transport materials The implementation of an agricultural census, as well as the training of employees to can be sourced calculate the corresponding emissions, is an outstanding necessity. alongside carbon In the forestry sector, measures that increase productivity and, thus, carbon sequestration” sequestration in forest plantations are mandatory. Deforestation must also be reduced to a minimum. In the agricultural sector, measures to reduce emissions from livestock farming are mandatory. On the one hand, the existing programs to improve productivity in the dairy industry and to safeguard animal health should be extended. On the other hand, Fiji will also need to undertake initiatives to improve feed quality, with the aim of reducing emissions from enteric fermentation, and to introduce innovative manure management techniques. Human resources and capacity building are needed for the implementation of

4.5.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority need for 30,000 ha of agricultural land. In order to sustainable forest management including: the improvement of plantation productivity, Actions, and High-Level Costing increase forest carbon storage, an additional 77,400 afforestation and reforestation activities, climate-smart agriculture, animal health, ha are recommended for afforestation as part of the animal breeding, and use of manure for bioenergy. Climate change mitigation activities in the AFOLU introduction of REDD+.157 sector are embedded in the complex interrelations Actions in the forestry sector for the very high ambition scenario are costed at over between environmental and socioeconomic factors that The expansion of agricultural and forestry production USD 150 million. Actions in the Agricultural sector for the very high ambition scenario simultaneously affect patterns, processes, and dynamics areas can only take place in accordance with traditional are costed at just under USD 25 million. More details on indicative costs can be found of land systems.154 Therefore, the creation of an enabling land use rights in Fiji. In addition to official institutions, in Annex A. environment and the removal of barriers remain major local landowners in particular should be involved in the challenges for implementing AFOLU activities.155 programs and compensated accordingly for the use of their land where necessary. In addition to participatory An essential prerequisite for the successful approaches, the creation of employment and income implementation of emission reductions in the AFOLU for the local population, as well as sufficient and fair sector is the provision of additional land for forestry and participation in the profits achieved through land use, agricultural use. For the cultivation of energy crops, the are indispensable. NDC Implementation Roadmap156 sees an additional 154Turner, B.L., Lambin, E.F., Reenberg, A. (2007). The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104. 155FCPF. (2015). Emission reductions program idea note (ER-PIN) - Republic of Fiji. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility . 156Government of Fiji. (2017b). NDC Implementation Roadmap 2017-2030. 157FCPF. (2015). Emission reductions program idea note (ER-PIN) - Republic of Fiji. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. 138 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 139

4.6 COASTAL WETLANDS “Mangrove carbon

4.6.1 Overview stocks, by area, This section examines the coastal wetlands – or blue carbon – component for Fiji’s LEDS, and the mitigation potential this important sector offers. It should be noted, exceed that of however, that due to insufficient data all estimated emissions from and sequestration seagrass, tidal by coastal wetlands (i.e., mangroves) are not included in the total net emissions for the LEDS. marshes, and even rainforests. The The term “blue carbon” refers to carbon that has been captured and stored by living organisms in oceanic and coastal ecosystems, particularly in mangroves, seagrass global average beds, and tidal marshes. The absence of tidal marshes in Fiji means that the focus carbon stock of of national coastal carbon and GHG inventories is on mangroves and seagrass beds. Of the two ecosystems that are present, mangroves receive greater attention due to mangroves is development pressure leading to large-scale conversions, higher data availability estimated at 1,000 due to greater research interest, and in recognition of the ecosystem’s role in climate tonnes/ha” change mitigation and adaptation. The Global Forest Resource Assessment Country Report - Fiji (2015) defines a mangrove forest as a “forest occurring below the high tide water mark with a high occurrence of mangrove species.” There are eight mangrove plant species in Fiji and one hybrid,158 as well as five species and one subspecies of seagrass.159 Seagrass meadows have high biological productivity, recycle nutrients, and play an important role in maintaining coastal water quality. They are important foraging areas for green turtles and provide nursery habitat for fish, molluscs, and crustaceans that support the livelihoods of Fiji’s coastal communities. While the importance of seagrass meadows for fisheries is well known, no carbon sequestration studies have been carried out, so far, on the seagrass meadows in Fiji. The only data available for carbon capture and storage by seagrass areas are based on studies, under comparable conditions, in the Indo-Pacific region. Therefore, seagrasses have not been considered in this LEDS due to lack of data specific to Fiji. It is recommended that efforts are made in the future to collect relevant data on seagrasses in Fiji. Similarly, the rich variety of ecosystem goods and services offered by mangroves are well documented. These include provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural services. The climate regulation service results from the capacity of mangrove soils to sequester carbon and act as a carbon sink. Mangrove carbon stocks, by area, exceed that of seagrass, tidal marshes, and even rainforests. The global average carbon stock of mangroves is estimated at 1,000 tonnes/ha with some 83-99% of it stored in the soil,160 compared with the global average carbon stock of the other three ecosystems estimated at 100, 400, and 500 tonnes/ha, respectively.161 Logically, then, the GHG emissions from mangrove deforestation and degradation are among the highest of all land use practices in the tropics. 158Tuiwawa, S. H., Skelton, P. A., and Tuiwawa, M. V. (2014). A field guide to the management of mangroves and seagrass species of Fiji. Suva: University of the South Pacific Press. 159Brodie, G. and N’Yeurt, D. R. A. (2018). Impacts of Climate Change on Seagrasses and Seagrass Habitats Relevant to the Pacific Islands. Pacific Marine Climate Change Report Card. Science Review: 112-131. 160UNEP. (2014). The Importance of Mangroves to People: A Call to Action. Van Bochove, J., Sullivan, E., Nakamura, T. (Eds). Cambridge: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre. 161UNEP. (2014). The Importance of Mangroves to People: A Call to Action. Van Bochove, J., Sullivan, E., Nakamura, T. (Eds). Cambridge: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre. 140 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 141 Studies that have quantified GHG emissions from 4.6.2 Emission Sources 4.6.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory Framework mangrove conversion to shrimp ponds in the Dominican Summary of Emission Sources The Environment Management Act (2005) is the umbrella legislation for environmental “The Environment Republic162 and cattle pastures in the Pantanos de Centla in Mexico,163 showed a potential loss of 661-1135 Mg C/ governance and covers all ecosystems including mangroves and seagrasses. Part 3 of Management GHG emissions from seagrasses and mangroves in the Act deals with environment reports and plans and requires a National Environment ha and 786-2,173 Mg CO2 e/ha, respectively. Mangrove Fiji results from large-scale mangrove conversion Strategy to be developed. The Strategy must contain a Natural Resource Inventory Act (2005) is the removal in the Rewa Delta in Fiji was estimated to result for tourism facilities, industrial estates, agriculture, and a Natural Resource Management Plan. Mangroves and seagrasses are important umbrella legislation in emissions of 1,513 Mg CO2e/ha.164 municipal rubbish dumps, and housing. Tourism development in Nadi Bay resulted in the removal of coastal wetlands which constitute a part of the Inventory. Part 4 of the Act explains the for environmental With the deforestation rate of mangroves and their requirements and processes involved in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) that inordinate ability to sequester carbon, mangroves more than 200 ha of mangroves from 1986-2005, which developers are required to submit. governance need to be part of mitigation strategies to reduce GHG constituted 22% of the mangrove cover in the area.167 The Environment Management Regulations (2007) detail the steps required in the and covers all One of the last pockets of mangroves on Denarau (200 emissions from anthropogenic sources. In addition to promoting mangrove rehabilitation, which itself presents ha) was removed for tourism development with a lease submission of a proposal to develop wetlands areas, the EIA process and additional ecosystems requirements that may need to be submitted, like an environment management plan challenges, there needs to be a concerted national effort issued in 2009. The Suva-Navua corridor and Denarau and the payment of environmental bonds. including to significantly reduce the loss of mangroves. have recorded the largest mangrove losses due to developmental pressures in the five years since 2013. A development proposal that impacts mangroves is forwarded to the Mangrove mangroves and Unlike the mangrove resources, there is currently Management Committee (MMC) for their review. Should a developer propose the seagrasses” no baseline data available for seagrass meadows in Mangrove degradation from the haphazard dumping of removal of 30% of a mangrove forest then a mangrove management plan needs to be Fiji. There has been no mapping and no biomass data dredge spoil and from the impact of severe cyclones is submitted with the proposal.168 A Mangrove Management Plan outlines landscaping collection meaning the estimation of 16.5 km2 seagrass another source of emissions. options, the selection of areas for landscaping, and conservation and steps in restoring area cover for Fiji, which is frequently quoted figure GHG emissions from the blue carbon sector are not deforested mangrove areas.169 There is no requirement to state the extent and impact in the literature, is likely grossly underestimated.165 currently reflected in Fiji’s national GHG inventory of GHG emissions of such proposals, although it is possible for these to be introduced Some ad hoc monitoring of seven sites in Fiji has been reported in the TNC but are nevertheless considered in in the future as part of the Terms of Reference for future EIAs. done by Seagrass Watch in 2007-2008; this measured this LEDS. seagrass cover, species composition, algae cover, The Ministry of Environment and Waterways charges developers an environmental and epiphyte cover. The volume of data collected, Type of Emissions bond as a surety so that the bond can be used to compensate for any damage done to however, is insufficient to detect any trends. There has adjacent ecosystems, including the removal of mangroves. Due to the huge reservoir of carbon accumulated in been no further analysis on emissions from seagrass The Mangrove Management Plan (2013) begins with a review of the previous Mangrove mangrove soil over millennia, the main gas emitted from meadows, but the potential for such analysis should be Management Plans (MMP), Phases 1 and 2, that were developed in 1985-1986. It mangroves is CO2. Methane emissions are relatively low investigated. provides the background to how the original MMP was developed, the basis of the due to the saline conditions of the ecosystem. Nitrous The economic valuation of the carbon sequestration oxide is emitted when mangroves are converted for zonation maps that were part of the plan, the strengths and shortcomings, and issues function of Fiji’s mangroves has been valued at USD aquaculture uses. Seagrasses are also known to emit that need to be addressed in the revised plan. 1,920 ha/year while that of seagrass is USD 758 ha/ CO2 and CH4. The MMP 2013 states that an MMP should be based on a national policy specifically year.166 on mangrove use and management, although no such policy currently exists, and that an effective MMC needs to be established. Mangrove use and management have nevertheless been integrated into various legislation and policies such as the State Lands Act (Cap 132), the Environment Management Act (2005), the Forest Decree (1992), and the Town Planning Act (Cap 139). 162Kauffman, J. B., Heider, C., Norfolk, J., Payton, F. (2014). Carbon stocks of intact mangroves and carbon emissions arising from their conversion in the The MMP 2013 has yet to be endorsed by Cabinet, one of the major reservations is the Dominican Republic. Ecological Applications 24(3): 518-527. lack of zoned maps. The author of the MMP 2013 stresses that significant resources 163Kauffman, J. B., Trejo, H. H., del Carmen, M., Heider, C., Contreras, W. M. (2015). Carbon stocks of mangroves and losses arising from their conversion to cattle pastures in the Pantanos de Centla, Mexico. Wetlands Ecological Management 23(3). are required for the inclusion of spatial maps with zones demarcated for various uses, 164Watershed Professionals Network. (2013). MESCAL Carbon Assessment: Rewa Delta Mangrove Reference Levels & Emissions Due to Mangrove and there would need to be extensive consultations with traditional fishing rights Conversion. owners to develop consensus. Rather than spatial maps, the MMP 2013 recommends 165Brodie, pers. comm. 166Gonzalez, R., Ram-Bidesi, V., Leport, G., Pascal, N., Brander, L., Fernandes, L., Salcone, J., Seidl, A. (2015). National marine ecosystem service that large scale conversions be dealt with on a case-by-case basis within the valuation: Fiji. Suva, Fiji: MACBIO (GIZ/IUCN/SPREP). legislative framework provided by the Environment Management Act and a rigorous 167Environment Consultants Fiji (ECF). (2006). In literature. EIA process. 168Singh, pers. comm. 169Mangrove Management Committee. (2013). Mangrove Management Plan for Fiji 2013; and, Sykes, H. (2007). Mangrove Management Plan for resorts in the Fiji Islands. Marine Ecology Consulting Report. 142 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 143 The MMP 2013 further recommends that any significant As part of the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action 4.6.4 Methodology conversion of mangroves should require an offset, Plan (2017-2024), under the strategic area of Protected Model and Methodology Used “Factors such as the offset being an equal or larger area of equivalent Areas, the occurrence and status of all existing wetlands mangrove being acquired as a mangrove reserve. is to be analysed, mapped, and documented led by the the hydrology, The approach used to develop estimated emissions and sequestration scenarios for This has been done by developers on Naisoso, Nadi national Protected Areas Committee. coastal wetlands is a simple extrapolation of the only data available in-country for salinity, and who removed seven hectares of mangroves but The Fisheries Department, in conducting fisheries Rewa delta mangrove carbon stocks and estimated emissions and replanting rates. frequency of conserved 100 ha (more than 14 times the area). Such Consideration of mangroves and other coastal wetlands in future national inventories, a requirement is currently being implemented by the impact assessments, does not support any removal NDCs, and LEDS will allow gradual movement towards adoption of Tier 1 estimation tropical cyclones of mangroves. Cooperation between government Ministry of Waterways and Environment, which has departments at middle management level may be for carbon stock changes for the BAU unconditional scenario and the Stock Gain-Loss affect the ability stipulated that an offset must be six times the area removed.170 The scientific basis of the required offset is more effective at enforcing a moratorium on mangrove method using the guidance provided in section “2.3.1.2 Land Converted to Another of mangroves to Land-Use Category” and chapters 4 and 7 of volume 4 of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines unclear, except that it is twice the area recommended removal and initiating mangrove rehabilitation than at senior levels. NGOs, academic institutions, and and chapter 4 of the 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National store carbon” in the only mangrove carbon emission study done Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands. development partners play a critical role in supporting to date in Fiji.171 Despite its apparent benefits, the the government’s efforts to reduce GHG emissions Efforts to improve emission and sequestration estimates that utilize the IPCC Tier 1 ecological practicality of the stipulated offset of 1:6 through projects implemented. methodology will require significant improvements in activity data. This may include: hectares is unclear as mangroves generally will only thrive in the same locations where they have grown The Pacific Blue Carbon Initiative is an example of one • Obtaining high-resolution satellite imagery and mapping mangrove cover and land previously. Finding sites on the scale that the proposed such initiative that will assist by mapping seagrass and use changes; offset requires is challenging, especially with respect mangrove areas and documenting potential threats and to appropriate substrate type, hydrology, and shelter trends. The ecosystems will be assessed for carbon • Establishing a database for all management activities in mangroves and seagrass storage, which should hopefully generate much needed beds; from wind and wave action. Effective approaches for expanding mangroves requires further investigation. data for modelling blue carbon ecosystems in Fiji. • Determining country-specific allometric equations; Conservation International has initiated the development The State of Environment Report (2013) for Fiji states of a Blue Carbon Roadmap for Fiji and is currently • Replication of above-ground and below-ground biomass studies and soil carbon that between 1991-2007 there was a 5% loss in content at all major locales nationally; and engaged in assessing community perceptions of blue mangrove cover with much of the loss recorded in peri- carbon in the Rewa Delta. The Mangrove Ecosystems for • Recording activity data for seagrass beds, which are currently reported anecdotally. urban and urban areas. Analysis of satellite imagery Climate Change Adaptation and Livelihoods (MESCAL) shows a 40% reduction in cover in the Suva Peninsula Data Used, Data Sources, and Assumptions project implemented by IUCN from 2010-2013 was and Lami areas and a 19% reduction in the Coral Coast the flagship mangrove project in the country, and the Data sources and gaps are summarised in Table 36. area between 1991-2007. These tracts of mangroves wider Oceania region, that generated the first mangrove were removed for housing, industrial and tourism biomass and carbon emissions data and resulted in the Table 36. Data sources and gaps for Wetlands. facilities. The lack of rigour in some EIA processes has revised MMP and contributed to the revival of the MMC. seen many areas lying desolate bereft of vegetation Data used Data sources Data gaps and without further development. Although there is Seagrass meadows are not mentioned in national Mangrove area Lands Dept, SPC and reports Mangrove losses and areas acknowledgment of the importance of mangroves in policies or regional frameworks despite their importance revegetated. mitigating GHG emissions, no data has been collected on in emissions mitigation. Carbon stock/biomass MESCAL reports Data from Rewa Delta mangroves the emissions resulting from the large-scale destruction only. Physiology of mangroves that occurred during the 16-year period. in western and northern part of the group, with different climatic conditions, will yield lower biomass values. Carbon emissions MESCAL reports Only one study with limited sites sampled. Paucity in activity data. 170Singh, pers. comm. 171Watershed Professionals Network. (2013). MESCAL Carbon Assessment: Rewa Delta Mangrove Reference Levels & Emissions Due to Mangrove Conversion. Using the carbon stock assessment figures from Rewa delta rests on the assumption that the mangrove stands in the Western Division will have the same biomass. Factors such as the hydrology, salinity, and frequency of tropical cyclones affect the ability of mangroves to store carbon. Those areas that have lower soil salinity, higher rainfall, and infrequent cyclones promote larger carbon stocks, thus, the marked difference in physical stature of the mangroves in Rewa delta and the more stunted mangroves of the Western Division. 144 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 145 There were two studies done172 using different methodologies to determine the total Figure 62. Total Ecosystem Carbon pools expressed in CO2 equivalent for the main mangrove types in Rewa delta. “Three dominant carbon stock of mangroves in the Rewa delta. One study calculated above-ground and below-ground biomass of three dominant mangrove species found in the Rewa delta: mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza, Rhizophora sp., and Xylocarpus granatum. The results from 43 species are long plots are shown in Figure 60. found in the Figure 60. Above-ground and below-ground biomass of three dominant mangrove Rewa delta: species in Rewa Delta. Bruguiera gymnorhiza, Rhizophora sp., and Xylocarpus granatum” A rapid assessment of six additional sites was also done, sampling only soil, to determine carbon emissions due to conversion.174 This was the first such study done in Fiji’s mangroves and Figure 63 shows carbon emissions from the different stages of conversion. This study determined that mangroves in Fiji sequester approximately 1,700 tonnes CO2e/ha. Figure 63. The emissions associated with a gradient of mangrove conversion in Rewa delta. Figures 61 and 62 show the Total Ecosystem Carbon stock and Total CO2e calculated by Watershed Professionals Network (2013) for Bruguiera mangrove sites, Rhizophora mangroves, and sites that had a mix of both species in the Rewa delta. The method used two metre radius and seven metre radius plots.173 The main difference between the two methods was that the former looked at a set number of trees (30-50) within each plot, while the latter looked at all trees within a given radius. Figure 61. Results of eleven plots with fixed radius where data on standing tree biomass (live and dead), downed wood (dead wood on the forest floor), and soils at five depth profiles were collected. 172Duke, N. C., MacKenzie, J., and Wood, A. (2013). An assessment of biomass and carbon content of mangroves in Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga 174Watershed Professionals Network. (2013). MESCAL Carbon Assessment: Rewa Delta Mangrove Reference Levels & Emissions Due to Mangrove & Samoa. TropWATER Report No. 13/24. James Cook University Australia. Conversion. 173Kauffman and Donato. (2012). Protocols for the measurement, monitoring and reporting of structure, biomass and carbon stocks in mangrove forests. Working Paper 86. Bogor, Indonesia: CIFOR. 146 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 147 Limitations and Uncertainties This LEDS envisions a maximum expansion of mangrove areas to about 54,700 and “Mangrove areas Figures for the area of mangroves in Fiji vary, but include estimates of: 38,500 65,000 ha in the High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios, respectively, “This LEDS envisions following adoption of full moratoriums and significant replanting and restoration experienced a ha,175 42,460 ha,176 48,317 ha,177 49,500 ha,178 and 52,000 ha.179 This 25% difference is efforts. Notably, this would signify an increase in mangrove areas by 13% and 34% a maximum expansion significant and will require considerable additional data collection and analysis to loss of 0.5% resolve. Mangrove areas experienced a loss of 0.5% per year during 1991-2007.180 For by 2050 relative to the 48,317 ha in 2008 presented in the MESCAL report. Further of mangrove areas per year during purposes of this LEDS, the baseline value of the total area of mangroves is taken from research will be needed to confirm the full extent possible for rehabilitating and to about 54,700 and expanding Fiji’s mangroves. 1991-2007” the MESCAL report, which took the most comprehensive carbon stock assessment of 65,000 ha in the mangroves in Fiji to date, focusing on the Rewa delta. This remains the only baseline data available for carbon stocks of Fiji’s mangroves. Stakeholder Consultation Process High Ambition and Figure 64 shows the forecasted mangrove area change in the Fiji country report Key stakeholders focusing on blue carbon and wetlands in Fiji include: the Ministry of Very High Ambition Fisheries and Forest (MFF), the Ministry of Lands and Mineral Resources, the Ministry submitted to FAO for the Global Forest Resources Assessment (2015). Once again, the of Industry and Trade and Public Enterprise, the Ministry of Itaukei Affairs, the Ministry scenarios, respectively” difference in figures is significant. The Forestry forecast has mangrove area increasing of Environment, Fiji Tuna Association, Pacific Islands Tuna Industry Association, private during the same period (2005-2010) when other government documents report a loss fishing enterprises, Conservation International, WWF, Nature Fiji, the University of of mangroves. Carbon stock estimates and, consequently, carbon emission estimates the South Pacific, GIZ, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, IUCN, and the Pacific Islands are influenced by such variable values of mangrove area. Accurate coverage figures Development Forum. are essential in order to manage the mangrove resource. A potential source of error in the extent of mangrove cover is the spectral quality of satellite images making the During the first national stakeholder workshop, stakeholders developed a vision that distinction between mangroves and pine forests particularly difficult near human blue carbon and wetland ecosystems of Fiji are sustainably managed and protected, settlements. A case in point are LandSat images from 2006 and 2016 showing the maintaining their ecosystem goods and services for future generations. The second mangrove areas in the Ba delta. Higher resolution satellite imagery is required if more set of stakeholder consultations involved a series of face-to-face meetings with accurate high ambition and very high ambition scenarios are to be developed. government ministries on the 14th, 22nd, and 24th of August, 2018 to receive input on the policy options and priorities for low emission development of the sector. Participants Figure 64. Forecasted mangrove area change submitted for Fiji for Global Forest in the third national consultation workshop indicated that a national mangrove policy Resources Assessment. governing the use and management of the resource and the effective enforcement of existing legislation were equally high priorities. Also important were the need for accurate mangrove maps that are zoned, similar to the detailed maps produced in the MMP (1985), and the identification of national priority areas for conservation. The LEDS stakeholders proposed that by the year 2023 there would be improved coverage data, representative carbon stock measurements, and economic valuations and established restoration targets. By the year 2050, a central repository for blue carbon and wetlands data would be established, sustainable financing mechanisms to sustain projects would be functioning, and EIA policies and practices would be revised.

4.6.5 Low Emission Development Scenarios Base Year (BY) The base year selected for coastal wetlands in this LEDS is 2013. BAU Unconditional Scenario The BAU Unconditional scenario envisions implementation of policies currently in place. The scenario assumes that the total mangroves area in 2008 was 48,317 ha, as stated above, and that mangrove removal will take place at a rate of 0.5% per year thereafter, resulting in approximately 39,144 ha in 2050. Between the 2013 Base Year 175Gonzalez, R., Ram-Bidesi, V., Leport, G., Pascal, N., Brander, L., Fernandes, L., Salcone, J., Seidl, A. (2015). National marine ecosystem service and 2050, mangrove conversion will release an estimated 1,518 tCO2e per hectare. As valuation: Fiji Suva, Fiji: MACBIO (GIZ/IUCN/SPREP). 176Mangubhai S, Sykes H, Lovell E, Brodie G, Jupiter S, Lal R, Lee S, Loganimoce EM, Morris C, Nand Y, Qauqau I, Rashni B. (2018). Fiji: Coastal and the total area of mangroves is projected to decline, total emissions are also projected marine ecosystems. In C. Sheppard (ed.) World Seas: An Environmental Evaluation Volume II: The Indian Ocean to the Pacific. Elsevier. pp. 765-792. to decline from an estimated 357,649 tCO2e in 2013 to 297,106 tCO2e in 2050. 177Mangrove Management Committee. (2013). Mangrove Management Plan for Fiji 2013. 178Ministry of Lands. (2018). The Management of Mangrove Areas in Fiji. Lands Department presentation at the LEDS 1st national stakeholder workshop. 179SPC. (2018). Forest change detection Fiji. Suva: SPC. 180Mangrove Management Committee. (2013). Mangrove Management Plan for Fiji 2013. 148 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 149 Table 37 and Figure 65 present total emissions from mangroves in the BAU Unconditional scenario. purposes of this LEDS, this scenario assumes that the mortality of replanted mangroves will be reduced to zero. Table 38 and Figure 66 present total emissions from mangroves in the BAU Unconditional scenario. Table 37. BAU Unconditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Table 38. BAU Conditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. Source Gas BY (2013) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Mangroves CO2e 357,649 354,082 345,318 336,771 328,435 320,306 312,378 304,646 297,106 Source Gas BY (2013) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Mangroves CO2e 357,649 354,082 339,016 314,930 314,852 293,344 272,235 251,520 231,189 Figure 65. BAU Unconditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e). Figure 66. BAU Conditional scenario for Coastal Wetlands. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e). BAU Conditional Scenario The BAU Conditional scenario assumes that the total The efforts to protect mangroves under the BAU mangroves area in 2008 was 48,317 ha, as stated above, Conditional scenario will be supported through and that mangrove removal will take place at a rate of international and other external financing and resources. High Ambition Scenario Again, emissions resulting from removals are assumed 0.5% per year thereafter, resulting in approximately It would entail creating mangrove maps that are zoned to be 1,518 tCO2e per hectare, whereas restored The High Ambition scenario assumes that the total 39,144 ha in 2050. The scenario reflects no significant for different purposes (e.g., housing, research, tourism, mangroves are assumed to have the potential to mangroves area in 2008 was 48,317 ha, as stated deviations from current policy, except for the initiation agriculture, and reserves), costing approximately sequester the same amount of CO2 emitted, but require above, and that mangrove removal will take place at a of investment in a new replanting program starting in USD 250,000 to produce (CI, 2018), based on extensive 30 years to do so; thus, the rate of sequestration is rate of 0.5% per year until the year 2029, after which a the year 2025, replacing 25% of the area of mangroves consultations with traditional fishing rights owners to estimated to be roughly one thirtieth of the total area fully enforced moratorium is assumed to take effect. lost in the prior year. Emissions resulting from removals ensure they consent to the zonation scheme. The maps being restored. Sequestration is assumed to take place This scenario incorporates the addition of financing are assumed to be 1,518 tCO2e per hectare. Restored would serve as a decision support tool for the MMC. the year after replanting. to support the development of mangrove maps and mangroves are assumed to have the potential to This scenario will also depend on establishing nurseries nurseries for replanting, with additional measures to By 2050, as the total area of mangroves is expected to sequester the same amount of CO2 emitted, but require for the rehabilitation of degraded sites with external improve success rates. Again, for purposes of this LEDS, increase by about 13% of 2008 levels, to a maximum 30 years to do so; thus, the rate of sequestration is funding as well as private sector resources. Mangrove this scenario assumes that the mortality of replanted level of 54,762 ha. Total emissions of an estimated estimated to be roughly one thirtieth of the total area replanting is a popular activity of corporate bodies and mangroves will be reduced to zero.182 357,649 tCO2e in 2013 will transition to net sequestration being restored. Sequestration is assumed to take place reflected in the Suva Mangroves Master Plan, developed starting in 2030 with a maximum sequestration rate of the year after replanting. Following the recommendation of the MESCAL study, in response to this corporate social responsibility. Given -531,204 tCO2e in 2050. Annual rates of sequestration the scenario envisions replanting of two hectares of Between the 2013 Base Year and 2050, as the total that only 6-7% of seedlings survive 12 months after are expected to plateau, as the scenario assumes a limit mangroves for every hectare converted, in this case area of mangroves is expected to decline, despite some planting through earlier efforts,181 additional measures to the area available for mangrove replanting those hectares converted 12 years previously (i.e., the replanting, total emissions are estimated to decline from will need to be taken to ensure higher success rates. For (see above). scale of replanting of 483 ha in 2020 is based on an 357,649 tCO2e in 2013 to 231,189 tCO2e in 2050. estimated total of 242 ha converted in 2008). Table 39 and Figure 67 present total emissions from mangroves in the High Ambition scenario. 181Batibasaga, pers. Comm. 182Conversely, success could be assumed if promoting a much larger replanting area and, thus, offsetting unsuccessful replanting efforts in some locations. 150 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 151 Table 39. High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. to sequester the same amount of CO2 emitted, but require 30 years to do so; thus, the rate of sequestration is (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) estimated to be roughly one thirtieth of the total area being restored. Sequestration is assumed to take place the year after replanting. Source Gas BY (2013) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 By 2050, as the total area of mangroves is expected to increase by about 13% of 2008 levels (to a maximum level Mangroves CO2e 366,726 363,068 354,082 242,264 -242,051 -360,813 -481,918 -531,204 -531,204 of 54,762 ha) total emissions (of an estimated 357,649 tCO2e in 2013) will transition to net sequestration starting in 2021, with a maximum sequestration rate of -939,672.42 tCO2e in 2050. Annual rates of sequestration are expected Figure 67. High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. to plateau, as the scenario assumes a limit to the area available for mangrove replanting (see above). (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Table 40 and Figure 68 present total emissions from mangroves in the Very High Ambition scenario. Table 40. Very High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY (2013) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Mangroves CO2e 366,726 363,068 354,082 -363,077 -726,154 -939,672 -939,672 -939,672 -939,672 Figure 68. Very High Ambition scenario for Coastal Wetlands. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Very High Ambition Scenario This scenario envisions replanting of six hectares of Using the same total area of mangroves in 2008 as mangroves for every hectare removed, following a above, the Very High Ambition scenario assumes that proposal of the Ministry of Waterways and Environment mangrove removal will take place at a rate of 0.5% per for introducing such offsets.184 The size of replanting year until 2020, after which a fully enforced moratorium areas would be six times that of areas converted 12 would take effect. This scenario incorporates the years prior (i.e., the scale of replanting of 1,450 ha in addition of financing to support development of 2020 is based on an estimated total of 242 ha converted mangrove maps and nurseries for replanting, with in 2008). Comparison of Scenarios additional measures to improve success rates. Again, Again, emissions resulting from removals are Figure 69 below provides a comparison of the four scenarios developed for Coastal Wetlands. The analysis shows for purposes of this LEDS, this scenario assumes that assumed to be 1,518 tCO2e per hectare, whereas that it appears possible to begin to achieve net negative emissions before 2030 under the High Ambition scenario the mortality of replanted mangroves will be reduced restored mangroves are assumed to have the potential and before 2025 under the Very High Ambition scenario, as a result of aggressive replanting and restoration. Again, to zero.183 although these projections are highly preliminary and based on a rather simple methodology, they at least present a general idea of the significant carbon sequestration potential that mangroves can offer. 183Conversely, success could be assumed if promoting a much larger replanting area and, thus, offsetting unsuccessful replanting efforts in some locations. 184Singh, pers. comm. 152 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 153 Figure 69. Comparison of scenarios for Coastal Wetlands. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e).

4.6.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority Accurately zoned mangrove maps, similar to maps Actions, and High-Level Costing produced in 1985-1986, would assist the MMC in making informed decisions on development proposals. One of the recommendations of the 2013 MMP includes Of course, effective enforcement of existing legislation the formulation of a national mangrove policy and will ensure that mangrove conversion and recovery is the revival of a functional MMC. Under this provision, carefully managed. Conducting a cost-benefit analysis applications for the conversion of mangroves must be can help take into account the carbon sequestration vetted and strict adherence to the EIA process is strongly value of mangroves as part of any proposals requesting recommended. Such a national policy is being given conversion of significant tracts of mangroves. Realistic serious consideration because of the importance of the and effective rehabilitation schemes would also benefit ecosystem to climate change mitigation and adaptation, from involving local communities. as well as disaster risk reduction. Although the Ministry of Lands is the State custodian of mangroves, the To achieve higher ambitions, Fiji’s approach to promoting Ministry of Environment and Waterways, the Ministry of significant restoration of its mangroves will require new Forestry, and the Ministry of Fisheries all play a role in ambitious policies, such as to impose a full national determining its use. A national policy that is robust, easy moratorium on mangrove removal, and an increasingly to interpret, and implementable is advocated in the MMP large replanting program. 2013 and will allow the multiple stakeholders to make In order to consider mitigation and conservation sound decisions regarding the use of the resource. The opportunities for seagrasses, Fiji can consider improved MMP 2013 will need formal endorsement by Cabinet to mapping to determine species assemblages and the re-establish a fully functional mangrove management extent of cover and losses. This can be complemented by mechanism in the country. There is currently a measuring biomass to calculate carbon stocks, as well functional MMC chaired by the PS Lands and co-chaired as identifying threats to seagrass meadows. by the Conservator of Forests, but no plan on which to base their decisions. 154 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 155

4.7 WASTE SECTOR life, reduction of leachate production, an increase in green Figure 70. A plan showing the duration of different stages of landfill operation and hectares of area required for jobs, reduced dependence on fossil fuel for electricity each stage.190

4.7.1 Overview generation, production of compost to increase soil fertility, This section looks at the waste component for Fiji’s LEDS. and reduction of plastic pollution, particularly if plastic The waste sector contributes approximately 3% of total waste is considered a resource with value. global GHG and, according to Fiji’s recent national GHG 185 inventory in the TNC, the waste sector in Fiji represents 4.7.2 Emission Sources 4% of the country’s total emissions.186 With increasing Summary of Emission Sources population and more waste generation projected, these emissions are expected to grow under BAU conditions, For purposes of this LEDS, two major emission source particularly if emissions from the energy sector are categories in Fiji from the waste sector are considered.188 mitigated, as stipulated in Fiji’s NDC Implementation Although incineration of waste also emits CO2, it is not Roadmap. The relative percentage of emissions from the included in this assessment as it is not a significant waste sector is bound to increase beyond the current 4% emissions source category. The only major incineration if no mitigating actions are implemented. source identified in Fiji is the incineration of medical waste in hospitals in Suva, Lautoka, and Labasa. The This section considers methane emissions from the analysis shows that the emissions is in the order of anaerobic decomposition of organic matter, either from 10 tonnes of CO2e per year, which is well within the solid waste disposal sites (SWDSs) or from wastewater uncertainty range of the calculations shown in this report treatment plants (WWTPs). As highlighted in the TNC, and, therefore, not included in the emission reduction methane emissions from the SWDSs are almost double scenarios. It is noteworthy that rubbish dumped in the those of WWTPs. In many developed countries, methane backyards of homes and by the roadside, or dumped in emissions from landfills or wastewater treatment plants the sea or rivers, does not contribute to GHG emissions are trapped and utilized to generate electricity; waste and is not included in the GHG inventory, according to the to energy (WTE) projects have been explored, such 2006 IPCC guidelines. as incineration of waste to generate electricity. Such recovery and utilization technology is expensive and The major SWD site is Naboro Landfill, which is an requires specialized technical expertise and, thus, may anaerobic landfill that receives household waste, green face barriers for implementation in SIDS. (plant matter) waste, and industrial waste from Nausori, Nasinu, Suva, Lami, and the neighboring Pacific Harbour Another sanitary semi-aerobic landfill, at Namara, Savusavu, Sigatoka, Ba, Tavua, and Levuka. Emision reductions from the waste sector provide an Labasa, has been included in GHG emission calculations. municipal areas.189 In 2017, the landfill received around There are 11 major WWTPs around the country and opportunity to achieve net zero emissions by capturing The other major SWD site is the Vunato Rubbish Dump 83,000 tonnes of waste and the amount of waste received are listed in Table 41. However, only Kinoya and Nadi methane emissions and utilizing it to generate electricity in Lautoka which receives waste from Lautoka and Nadi is increasing at a rate of 3,000 tonnes per year. The landfill were considered in the calculation as they both employ that would offset CO2 emissions from the diesel areas. The dump has been in operation for approximately has been in operation since 2005 and is administered by anaerobic treatment systems and emissions from the generators. The low emission scenarios developed for the 50 years and is now coming to the end of its useful life. Government of Fiji and operated by a private contractor, other efficiently-run aerobic plants are negligible. The waste sector in this LEDS incorporate Integrated Solid A new landfill will be needed in the near future and it is HG Leach Company of New Zealand. The landfill at ADB has recently funded a CDM project to flare methane Waste Management (ISWM), which combines different preferable that a semi-aerobic landfill, with a leachate Naboro is planned to be expanded in four stages and produced at Kinoya, which recently received Certified processes and technologies to provide a more holistic collection system, will be developed. The other smaller stage one was filled in January 2016. Figure 70 shows the Emission Reductions (CERs).191 approach aimed at diverting waste from landfill and SWDs included in the LEDS are the rubbish dumps in layout of the different stages of the landfill. With current reducing emissions from the waste sector. It has been practices and increasing volumes of waste generated, the documented that countries which adopt ISWM strategies planned filling of the landfill is per schedule and, in the have successfully reduced their carbon footprints.187 future, it is anticipated that if all the relevant measures Adopting ISWM not only reduces GHG emissions but also are implemented, more diversion of waste from the offers many economic, environmental, and social co- landfill will not lead to any problem of landfilling before benefits. These co-benefits include: extension of landfill the projections. 185Bogner et al. (2008). Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions six times a week respectively. In Labasa, waste collection services are from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel provided to the entire city three times a week. This data is taken from the on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III recent PRIF study detailing Pacific Country Profiles for the solid waste (Mitigation). Waste Management & Research 26: 11–32. management sector. 186Government of Fiji. (2018c). Fiji Third National Communication (TNC) to 189Waste can be classified into two types: organic and inorganic. Organic the UNFCCC. waste is defined as waste that includes any organic matter which can 190Mani et al. (2016). Pre-feasibility study for methane recovery at Naboro Landfill, Suva, Fiji Islands. 187Maloof & El-Fadel. (2018). Carbon footprint of integrated waste scientifically be broken down into organic molecules such as carbon 191https://www.pacificclimatechange.net/node/24774 management systems with implications of food waste diversion into the dioxide, water, methane through a process of anaerobic digestion, wastewater stream. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 133: 263-277. composting or any other similar processes. Inorganic waste is any type of 188For reference purposes, it is estimated that Suva City Council provides waste that cannot be broken down by micro-organisms. residential and commercial solid waste collection services three and 156 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 157 Table 41. Waste water treatment plants in Fiji and its treatment type. Table 42 . List of default values used in the IPCC FOD Waste Model. Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) STP Capacity (equivalent Population connected Treatment Type Parameters Default values inhabitants) DOC 192 0.14 Kinoya 180,000 151,000 High Rate Trickling Filter. Sequence DOCf 0.5 Batch Reactor Plant Methane generation rate constant 0.17 ACS 2,000 800 IMHOFF tank with 2 low rate filter and secondary sediment process Climate Moist and wet tropical WailadaLami 500 200 Activated package plant system Delay Time 6 months Nausori Airport 8,000 2,500 Activated sludge and tertiary pond Fraction of methane in landfill gas 0.5 Pacific Harbour 10,000 2,500 High rate trickling filter Conversion factor C to CH4 1.33 Sigatoka 10,000 1,200 Oxidation pond system DOC for garden waste 0.2 Naboro 6,000 1,500 Activated Sludge treatment DOC for paper and cardboard 0.4 Nadi 35,000 30,000 Activated Sludge treatment DOC for wood and straw 0.43 Lautoka 40,000 45,000 Oxidation pond system Methane Correction factor 1.0 for Naboro landfill; 0.5 for Namara landfill and 0.6 for all the other uncategorized SWDs Ba 8,000 5,000 Oxidation pond system Waste generation rate per capita 690 kg/cap/year Labasa 5,000 7,000 Oxidation pond system % of waste deposited to SWDs 100% for Naboro landfill and 85% default value for the others. Waste Composition Default values for Oceania region Type of Emissions guiding principles for developing low emission scenarios Food 68% for the waste sector. The NIWMS covers the period from This LEDS considers low emission scenarios for Paper 6% 2016 to 2026 and has mid-term (2021) and end-term methane (CH4) emitted from the waste sector. Wood 3% (2026) strategic goals. Its five strategic goals for the When organic matter (food waste, garden waste, paper, waste sector include: Plastics 24% wood, textiles, and diapers) decomposes in the absence of oxygen, CH4 and CO2 are produced. The CO2 emissions • Preventing the generation of waste; Methane recovered 0 (IPCC default value) Methane oxidized 0 (IPCC default value) from this biomass are considered carbon neutral and, • Recovering resources from waste; thus, not accounted for in the GHG inventory or the Methane emissions from the two anaerobic wastewater Data Used, Data Sources, and Assumptions LEDS. • Improving management of residuals; treatment plants are estimated according to the For the FOD model, the main activity data is the In WWTPs, when organic matter or sludge undergoes • Improving protection and monitoring of the receiving procedure outlined in chapter 6 of volume 5 IPCC amount of waste deposited at the landfill site. Accurate environment; and 2006 guidelines. The method for estimating CH4 from anaerobic digestion it produces CH4 and CO2 as well data was obtained for Naboro landfill as there is a and, again, only CH4 emissions are accounted for in • Implementing and monitoring the NIWMS. wastewater handling requires three basic steps and weighbridge installed at the site to weigh the tonnage of the three worksheets provided by IPCC were used to GHG calculation according to the 2006 IPCC guidelines. waste landfilled. The Naboro landfill data was obtained calculate each of the following steps: Although methane is the primary gas emitted, some 4.7.4 Methodology from HG Leach Company and was later verified by N2O is also produced during the treatment but it is very • Step 1: Estimation of Organically Degradable Material the Department of Environment. A linear regression negligible and is not a key category listed in the national Model and Methodology Used in Domestic Wastewater; line fitted to data from 2005-2017 was extrapolated to project the amount of waste to be deposited at Naboro GHG inventory, nor is it included in this LEDS. The IPCC 2006 First Order Decay (FOD) Model is used • Step2: Estimation of CH4 emission factor for to calculate methane emissions from the SWDSs. landfill until 2050. The approach adopted is current Domestic Wastewater; and

4.7.3 Existing Policy and Regulatory This is the standard tool used to estimate methane best practice, but there could be a deviation in the Framework emissions from the waste sector. The model, and further • Step 3: Estimation of CH4 emissions from Domestic total amount of waste from the projection due to an explanation of the parameters used in the model, are Wastewater. increase in the generation rate, due to an increase in A number of existing policies and regulatory frameworks explained in chapter 3 of volume 5 of the 2006 IPCC GDP, or more green waste generated due to frequent provide the foundation for low emission development in Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. the waste sector in Fiji. These include: the Solid Waste The default values used in the calculation are shown in Management Strategy 2011-2014; the Environment Table 42. Management Regulations 2007; the National Liquid Waste Management Strategy 2006; the National The FOD model assumes the time dependent emissions Integrated Waste Management Strategy 2016-2025; the as the degradable organic content (DOC) in waste matter 192Degradable Organic Carbon in a year. This refers to the process in calculating methane emissions where the first order of decay method is used, which National Liquid Trade Waste Policy 2013; and the Litter may take several years to degrade. Thus, within a few takes into account the related time taken for organic carbon content in waste to decay to half its initial mass. Promulgation Act 2008. years of waste placement in the landfill, the emissions may peak and then slowly decay as the DOC of waste The National Integrated Waste Management Strategy depletes. (NIWMS) is the most relevant policy and has provided the 158 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 159 high intensity cyclones in the future. The other SWDSs do not have a weighbridge Stakeholder Consultation Process BAU Unconditional Scenario and, therefore, waste generation rates (kg/cap/day) and population projection for “Installing Key stakeholders focusing on waste and wastewater in The IPCC waste model result for both the SWD and WWT different urban areas (FBoS population projection data supplemented by World Bank projections after consultation with FBoS) have been considered to calculate the weighbridges Fiji include: the Ministry of Local Government, Housing, is shown in the Figure 71 below. The BAU Unconditional and Environment; the Water Authority of Fiji; the Ministry scenario assumes that the current practices in waste amount of waste generated per year. The generation rate of 0.8 kg/cap/day was used at all SWDSs of Health; city and town councils of Suva, Nadi, Nasinu, management are sustained through 2050. In comparison and this value was taken from the NIWMS 2016-2028 document that specifically stated and carrying out Nausori, Lautoka, Savusavu, and Labasa; several to the base year value, the emissions will increase three- that waste generation will be maintained at this rate in future.193 One uncertainty is estimating the population of informal communities and how the dynamics of such detailed waste waste management and recycling firms; USP; Pacific fold in the waste sector overall (combining approximately a Islands Development Forum; SPC; the European Union four-fold and two-fold increase in emissions from the SWD communities will change in future. The Suva City Council makes concerted efforts characterization Delegation; and ADB. In addition to the three stakeholder and WWT subsectors respectively). to collect waste from informal communities by placing large skip bins in the vicinity which are cleared by private companies. The waste generated by such informal studies will consultation workshops, individual consultations Solid Waste Disposal communities around the Greater Suva Area is included in the LEDS. strengthen data were also held between May and August 2018 with the CDM project manager (WAF), the Ministry of Health, The growth rate in emissions from SWDs is expected to For wastewater treatment emissions, IPCC 2006 worksheets are used and the main in the solid waste the Department of Town and Country Planning, the increase steadily and reflects the urban population growth input parameters for the model are population, Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) data, sector” Department of Housing, IUCN, and the Suva and Nasinu rate as the amount of waste generated was approximated type of system, and amount of methane flared. The data required for calculations is Town Councils. using the population growth rate. Table 42 below shows provided by Water Authority of Fiji (WAF) and is highly reliable. The BOD data obtained that there is an increase of 255% in emissions from SWD During the first national stakeholder workshop, from WAF for Kinoya WWTP is in close agreement to the default value. A high- subsector by 2050, as compared to the base year value. stakeholders identified a vision for the waste sector: resolution BOD measurement exists for Kinoya. For the Navakai (Nadi) WWTP the BOD This scenario only calculates methane emissions from the Reduction of GHG emissions from the waste sector measurements are limited and, as a result, the IPCC default BOD value is used for the waste collected and disposed at SWDs. A closer inspection through the implementation of integrated solid waste Nadi WWTP as well. The future development plans for Kinoya WWTP have provided the of the different individual sources for the SWDs shows that management strategies which are environmentally basis for developing low emission scenarios, considering how the plant would expand Naboro landfill generates approximately 80% of emissions. friendly, economical, and sustainable. The waste session and how this will affect the amount of methane generated. Figure 71 below shows that the greatest opportunity for of the second national stakeholder consultation was emission reductions in the future will come from adopting held on the 6th of July, 2018 to present initial emission Limitations and Uncertainties ISWM strategies at Naboro landfill. Vunato rubbish dump, scenarios and discuss priorities. Stakeholders raised the second largest SWD site, is nearing the end of its Uncertainties for waste are difficult to assess and are quite variable. According to the questions about emissions related to transporting waste, useful life. Planning for a new landfill for the Western IPCC 2006 Guidelines, uncertainties can range from 10-30% depending on the quality waste collection from informal settlements, management Division is currently in process and is reflected in this of the activity data. Given the uncertainties surrounding the trend in future generation of hazardous waste (including that from disposing of EV scenario. The LEDS assumes that it will be a semi-aerobic of waste in Fiji, and taking a more conservative approach, the LEDS assumes a total batteries), resource recovery (e.g., methane capture for landfill which will reduce emissions by 50%, as compared uncertainty level of 30% to methane calculations. waste-to-energy uses), export of compost, and the idea of to an anaerobic landfill. The uncertainties are based on assumptions that include: creating a recycling hub for the Pacific region in Suva. In response to seeing the emission scenarios, and proposed Waste Water Treatment • Waste generation rates (0.4-1.8 kg/cap/d);194 actions for each, during the third national stakeholder There is a 50% increase in CH4 emissions in the • Population projections; workshop, stakeholders identified the top priority as a wastewater subsector, as compared to the base year national reduction, reuse, recycling and recovery (3R+R) • Waste characterization – default values were used; and policy to minimise waste going to landfill, combined value. It should be noted that the irregularities (the decreased efficiency in Figure 72) observed in the trend for • Percentage recovery of methane gas at WWTP for electricity generation. with composting household kitchen and green waste. WWT emissions are due to the variances in the efficiency They also prioritised an extended producer responsibility of flaring activity and the planned upgrade work at KSTP. Installing weighbridges at all SWDSs and carrying out detailed waste characterization policy to promote recycling and methane capture from The certified emission reductions stated in the CDM studies will strengthen data in the solid waste sector. anaerobic digesters at Kinoya Sewage Treatment Plant project proposal document are 22,500 tonnes of CO2 but, (KSTP) for co-generation of electricity. due to a malfunction in one of the digesters and problems associated with reporting and verification, emission

4.7.5 Low Emission Development reductions have been below the target. The current Scenarios ADB and GCF funding allocated to WAF for upgrade work at Kinoya is expected to result in the increase in Base Year (BY) the population connected to sewer lines by 2020195 and, 193Department of Environment. (2018). National Integrated Waste Management Strategies 2016-2028. It is important to note that this assumption is based on the fact that as populations rise, there will be interventions in place to manage the increasing amount of waste generated. Although the NIWMS The agreed base year used for the waste sector is 2013, hopefully, would achieve the CERs target for the remaining mentions that the rate of generation will remain stable, if these interventions do not come into practice, this number will change in the future. the year immediately before the flaring of methane began period of reporting to the CDM in 2022. In the worst-case 194www.pacific.undp.org/content/dam/fiji/docs/OtherDocs/.../Fj_FR_Quantification.pdf as part of the CDM project. scenario, there will be no flaring as there will be no more funding or income generated to support calibration and reporting of gas flared. 195https://cop23.com.fj/fiji-welcome-new-water-supply-wastewater-management-project-first-ever-adb-gcf-funding-initiative/ 160 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 161 Figure 71. Percentage contribution from different SWDs to total methane emissions from solid waste. BAU Conditional Scenario “With a concerted Solid Waste Disposal nationwide effort, The BAU Conditional scenario envisions diversion of waste from the landfills and and with proper rubbish dumps to an increased amount of composting. Starting in 2025, 40% of organic waste generated, such as kitchen waste, garden waste and paper, will be planning and diverted from the landfill. This will almost immediately reduce CH4 emissions by 40%. implementation, Nationwide household composting will be encouraged, and the collection of general a 40% reduction household waste is expected to decrease from three to five trips per week to one to two trips only. Each municipality will need to set up a composting facility, whereby all in organic waste market waste and green waste from maintaining parks and roads should be diverted to is feasible” the composting facility. Currently, Suva City Council (SCC) diverts market waste either for composting or animal feed. In 2016, market waste (consisting of primarily organic waste), which constitutes 10% of the total waste collected by SCC, was diverted from Naboro landfill. This intervention, not only reduced emissions by 10%, but also saved SCC a total of FJD 5,568 cartage tariffs annually.196 This scenario also envisions establishing a waste transfer station. The waste transfer station will not only reduce the emissions associated with the cartage of waste but will also provide an opportunity for recovery of resources, such as recyclables, and diversion of organic waste to a composting facility. The fuel data for transportation of waste to the SWDs for 2016 was obtained from various city and town councils Table 43. BAU Unconditional scenario for Waste. and private contractors (such as Waste Clear). The data was used to calculate (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) emissions of CO2 as per the 2006 IPCC Energy Tier 1 guidelines. It was calculated Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 that approximately 2,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions were from transporting waste, SWDs CH4 74,991 94,927 127,367 154,148 178,261 201,104 223,203 244,893 266,282 and this represents approximately 2% of the total emissions from the SWDSs. With the development of a transfer station for the Greater Suva area, the number of trips WWT CH4 42,280 30,520 72,800 72,800 72,800 78,400 78,400 78,400 78,400 to Naboro landfill may decline, although the CO2 emissions reduction is very small Total CO2e 117,271 125,447 200,167 226,948 251,061 279,504 301,603 323,293 344,682 and well within the uncertainty range. Thus, the emissions from the transportation of waste are not specifically accounted for in the development of emission reduction Figure 72. The BAU scenario for SWDs and WWTPs and the total emissions in Tonnes of CO2e for the waste sector. scenarios. With a concerted nationwide effort, and with proper planning and implementation, a 40% reduction in organic waste is feasible. It will require changing the mindset of the general public, that not everything should be landfilled, through extensive awareness and education. The co-benefit of this action is that it is likely to generate employment in the waste sector, particularly at different municipalities and government ministries responsible for advocating 3R policies in waste management. This can further be encouraged by subsidizing the cost of compost bins or providing incentives for reducing waste at the household level, such as by reducing garbage fee collection or city rates. In addition, separation at source is also encouraged at the household and market level, in addition to separation at landfills, to support composting efforts. In the present 2018-2019 budget, FJD 500,000 is allocated to purchase compost bins for Nasinu town area.197 If composting waste at a composting facility will be a major driver for waste diversion, then a well-developed market for selling compost as a product needs to be established. 196The data was provided by Suva City Council. 197http://www.economy.gov.fj/images/phocadownload/1.4%20Infrastructure%20Sector%20Flyer.pdf 162 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 163 Waste Water Treatment Waste Water Treatment For waste water treatment the BAU Conditional scenario is aligned to the planned upgrading work at KSTP. For waste water, Fiji will work to complete the second phase of the upgrade work at KSTP by 2033, and factor in Recently, the Fijian Government received funding of USD 405 million dollars from ADB and GCF to expand the a waste to energy component. It is assumed that approximately 50% of the methane produced will be captured capacity at KSTP from the current capacity of 155,000 people to 277,000 people by 2020, and further increased to and utilized for co-generation of combined heat and power. After taking into account the avoided emission from 330,000 people by 2033. It is also anticipated in this scenario that both digesters will be operational and flaring of electricity generation from diesel and CO2 emissions from WTE, under this approach total emissions will decline to methane will be done in accordance with the target specified in the Project Design Document of the CDM project, 1,578 tonnes of CO2e starting in 2033. The average grid emission factor of 0.24 tonnes of CO2/MWh obtained from which will result in a reduction of 22,500 tonnes CO2/yr. The amount of gas flared will be monitored, although there the LEAP model for the years 2033-2050 was used to calculate the avoided emission from diesel generators. The will be no credits given for the reduction. As illustrated in Table 44, the CH4 emission reduction from the WWT will current grid emission factor is 0.5095 tonnes of CO2/MWh.198 The grid emission factor used in this scenario is lower decrease by 37% from 2020 onwards, as compared to the BAU Unconditional scenario. than the current value as it incorporates more renewable energy to generate electricity, as stipulated in the NDC Implementation Roadmap. Table 44. BAU Conditional scenario for Waste. Significant emissions will still result from SWDs in this scenario, resulting in an overall increase of 35,614 CO2e (or (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) 48%) from 2013-2050. Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Table 45. High Ambition scenario for Waste. SWDs CH4 74,991 94,927 127,367 92,489 106,957 120,663 133,922 141,767 154,421 (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) WWT CH4 42,280 30,520 45,080 45,080 45,080 53,200 53,200 53,200 53,200 Total CO2e 117,271 125,447 172,447 137,569 152,037 173,863 187,122 194,967 207,621 Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 SWDs CH4 74,991 94,927 127,367 92,489 72,367 82,340 91,942 101,341 110,605 Figure 73. BAU Conditional scenario – Waste. WWT CH4 42,280 30,520 45,080 45,080 45,080 1,578 1,578 1,578 1,578 Total CO2e 117,271 125,447 172,447 137,569 117,447 83,918 93,520 102,919 112,183 Figure 74. High Ambition scenario – Waste. High Ambition Scenario Solid Waste Disposal To achieve even greater ambition than the BAU Ambitious recycling of 30% of paper and 40% of plastic Conditional scenario, the High Ambition Scenario will reduce methane emission for the SWD subsector Very High Ambition Scenario in the Naboro landfill will be captured and utilized for envisions more rigorous mitigating actions to further to 47% above the base value in 2050. This mitigating electricity generation to support the operation of the reduce methane emissions. In this scenario, Fiji strategy in the SWD subsector will reduce the emissions In the high ambition scenario, it is possible to achieve landfill from 2045. For the SWD sub-sector, even when proposes to adopt nationwide recycling of paper and further by 28% by the year 2050 (refer to Table 45). To significantly reduced emissions from WWT by 2035 and, considering a conservative result of recovering only 30% plastics starting in 2030 and exploring WTE options for achieve such levels of recycling in Fiji, related policies therefore, no mitigating actions are proposed for the of the methane and an electricity generation efficiency waste water treatment from 2033 onwards. need to be implemented and actions prioritised, which WWT sector in this scenario development. To attain these rate of 40%199 and CO2 emissions from WTE, emissions are further discussed below. emission levels in the very high ambition scenario, the will be reduced by 98% in 2050, as compared to the 2013 methane generated from 60% of organic waste ending 198UNEP. (2013). Fiji Emission Reduction Profile. 199Tercan et al. (2015). Analysis of a landfill gas to energy system at the municipal solid waste landfill in Gaziantep, Turkey. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 65(5): 912-918. 164 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 165 baseline value. In this very high ambition scenario, near zero emission values of 2,200 to 1,409 tonnes of CO2e can be Figure 76. Comparison of scenarios – Waste. achieved in 2045 and 2050, respectively (refer to Table 46 below). Table 46. Very High Ambition scenario for Waste. (all values for all gases in metric tonnes CO2e) Source Gas BY 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 SWDs CH4 74,991 94,927 127,367 92,489 72,367 82,340 91,942 2,200 1,409 WWT CH4 42,280 30,520 45,080 45,080 45,080 1,578 1,578 1,578 1,578 Total CO2e 117,271 125,447 172,447 137,569 117,447 83,918 93,520 3,778 2,987 Figure 75. Very High Ambition scenario – Waste.

4.7.6 Policy Recommendations, Priority everything into a bin and let the municipal and town councils dispose of it in a landfill. There is a need Actions, and High-Level Costing for greater national consultations to increase social The following policy recommendations and priority awareness and to promote behavioural change in actions are proposed for each long-term low emission order to successfully implement the 3R policy. Comparison of Scenarios scenario: • In the Fiji National Budget 2018-2019, funding is Figure 76 below shows a comparison of the four scenarios developed for the waste sector. The analysis shows that it BAU Conditional (40% waste diversion from SWDs and allocated for development of a waste transfer station is only possible to achieve near zero emissions by 2045 with the implementation of methane recovery and utilization flaring methane at Kinoya WWT): in Nasinu. The waste transfer station will not only to generate electricity using a gas turbine. To reach near zero emissions before 2045 may be possible if there is • A national 3R policy will be adopted and implemented reduce the emissions from transporting waste,200 but substantial amount of landfill gas produced for efficient recovery. to minimise waste going to landfills and to promote it also provides an opportunity for separating organic composting of household kitchen and green waste. waste for resource recovery, such as recyclables, and The NIWMS indicates that the 3R policy is still in for promoting green jobs. draft form and should be finalised soon. The policy • Fiji will pursue a program to develop composting should clearly outline the incentives for practicing 3R facilities so that organic waste can be composted on and should also include the polluter pays principle. a large scale. The compost produced could be sold Policymakers will also need to address the tariff in local markets as fertilisers or soil conditioner. structure for collection and disposal of waste to Many stakeholders suggested that the best place to promote an integrated solid waste management develop a composting facility is at Naboro Landfill strategy. itself. Studies have shown that using compost as a • Currently, local households usually opt for the soil cover enhances methane oxidation and thereby simplest option of waste disposal – which is to put reduces methane emissions from the landfill.201 200 As calculated, the total emissions from the transportation of waste was approximately 2% of the total emissions from the solid waste disposal sector. 201https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956053X06002364 166 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 167 High Ambition (30% Paper and 40% plastic recycling and the point of sale. The CDL was passed in the cabinet WTE for Kinoya WWTP): in September 2011 but it has not yet been enacted.202 For the high ambition scenario to increase recycling In addition to the actions proposed for the BAU of plastic, effective implementation of CDL is of Conditional scenario, the following actions are included paramount importance. in the High Ambition scenario: • Adoption of a source separation policy, i.e., for • Introduction of subsidies for recycling companies to counteract the fact that recycled materials are separating recyclable and organic waste from general sometimes subject to significant taxes (first when household waste. they are sold back to the industry as raw materials • Implementation will begin of the Extended Producer and again when they are sold as new products). which Responsibility (EPR) Policy to promote recycling and reduces the demand for recycled material, compared put the responsibility on the producer to ensure their to virgin material.203 Fiji intends to introduce tax products are returned to them and are disposed of exemptions to make recycling a lucrative business properly or recycled or re-used. The EPR policy will model in Fiji. also need to be in place for hazardous materials like car batteries, electronic waste, white goods, cars, and • A final action will involve methane capture from anaerobic digesters at KSTP for co-generation of plastics. Shifting the responsibility to the producers electricity. will force them to make products that can be easily recycled or reused and with the return policy it will Very High Ambition Scenario enhance the life of the local landfill. In addition to the actions proposed for the BAU • Adoption of a mechanism for collecting paper and Conditional and High Ambition scenarios, Fiji will pursue plastics from households. Currently there is limited the following in the Very High Ambition scenario: awareness about recycling paper and plastic bottles. • Naboro Landfill Gas Recovery and electricity Collection points will need to be established where generation will begin by 2045 to achieve net zero these recyclables can be dropped off, or recycling emissions from the waste sector. companies will be able to pick up these resources from each household on designated days of the High-Level Costing month. This section provides an initial high-level estimation of • Introduction of Container Deposit Legislation (CDL) the cost of some projects identified within the scenarios. to require the collection of a monetary deposit on beverage containers (refillable or non-refillable) at Table 47. High-level costing – Waste. Projects Estimated Cost Composting Facility 204 FJD 1.5 million consultation with SCC based on replication and upscaling of an existing facility) 205 Naboro landfill methane recovery and utilization FJD 4 million (Feasibility Study) WTE (Kinoya) FJD 8 million 206 Implementation of 3R, other legislative policies and creating awareness FJD 0.6 million per year 202 http://www.bottlebill.org/legislation/world/fiji.htm 203http://ccap.org/assets/CCAP_Net-Zero-August2014.pdf 204The composting facility would be one about 10 times bigger than the current capacity, as discussed with Suva City Council. 205Personal Communication: Mr. Naresh Narayan, Senior Health Inspector (Operations), Suva City Council, 24th of August 2018. 206A proposal was made to WAF by EVO Energy Technologies for power cogeneration for Kinoya. Based on the current capacity of inflow rates, a total investment of FJD 2.65 million was estimated. Due to the ADB investment and current extension plans at Kinyoa, the capacity will almost increase by three-fold and, therefore, the costing is upscaled by a factor of three as well and is estimated to be approximately FJD 8 million. 168 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 169

4.8 CROSS-CUTTING SECTORS: TOURISM, COMMERCIAL, Figure 77. Tourist arrival growth rate for Fiji. AND INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURING SECTORS “The LEDS This section provides an overview of low emission pathways for cross-cutting sectors, development such as the tourism, commercial, and industrial and manufacturing sectors, and process included explores how these sectors interact with the electricity, transport, AFOLU, and waste sectors. All sources and emissions described in this section are already reported in the consultations totals provided in sections 4.1 to 4.7 of Chapter 4. This section is intended to provide an and workshops illustrative indication of trends and priorities for action, and thus is not to be counted in addition to those emissions described above. with stakeholders Industrial process emissions are not separately considered in this LEDS due to a from the tourism, shortage of relevant data and the assumption, as shown in Fiji’s TNC, that total commercial, emissions from this sector are minimal. industrial and

4.8.1 Stakeholder Consultation Process manufacturing As with other sectors, the LEDS development process included consultations sectors” and workshops with stakeholders from the tourism, commercial, industrial and manufacturing sectors. Stakeholders with which the LEDS development process engaged included: Ministry of Sugar, Fiji Sugar Corporation, Fiji Sugar Cane Growers Council, Ministry of Industry and Trade and Tourism, Ministry of Public Enterprise, Vatukoula Gold Mining Limited, Mining and Quarrying Council of Fiji, Newcrest Fiji Limited, Fiji Manufacturers Association, Fiji Export Council, Fiji Hotel and Tourism Emissions Association, Duavata Sustainable Tourism Collective of Fiji , Fiji Independent Travelers and Backpackers Association, Talonoa Treks, and Leleuvia Resort, among others. Worldwide, the tourism sector is responsible for an estimated 8% of GHG emissions (3.5-4.9 Gt CO2e).211 An estimated total of 75% of these emissions are from air, car, and other transport, followed by 21% for During the first national stakeholder workshop, participating stakeholders developed accommodation and 4% for other activities (see Table 48).212 a vision of “A sustainable, responsible, and greener tourism industry by 2050” for the tourism industry, and “A greener and economically viable industry by 2050” for Table 48. Contribution of various components to tourism sector emissions globally.213 the commercial, industrial, and manufacturing sector. During a half-day second consultation workshop in June 2018, stakeholders from the tourism industry raised Sub Sectors the importance of access to improved air, maritime, and land transport for enhancing Air Transport 40% tourism’s potential – underscoring points made elsewhere in the LEDS about the co- Car Transport 32% benefits of low emission transport. Other Transport 3% Accommodation 21%

4.8.2 Tourism Sector [Other] Activities 4% Overview Total travel and tourism 100% This section describes the role of electricity generation, transport, AFOLU, and waste to the cross-cutting issue of emissions from tourism in Fiji’s economy. Tourism has become increasingly important to the Fijian economy in recent decades with tourism earnings growing from a level of around USD 150 million in 2007 to over USD 800 million in 2016,207 and contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings, GDP, and employment.208 In 2017, a total of 842,884 visitors arrived in Fiji, compared to 792,320 in 2016.209 The NDP aims to grow the contribution of tourism to GDP from 15% in 2015 to 20% by 2021. The World Travel and Tourism Council expects an overall contribution (indirect, direct, and induced) of 41.4% of GDP by 2027.210 To illustrate this point, projected tourist arrivals in Fiji through the year 2027 are shown in Figure 77 below. 211Lenzen et al. (2018). The Carbon Footprint of Global Tourism. Nature. 212World Tourism Organization and UNEP. (2008). Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges, eCLAT. 213World Tourism Organization and UNEP. (2008). Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges, eCLAT. 207Fiji Bureau of Statistics. (2018b). Tourism and Migration Statistics. Accessed 30th September 2018. Available at https://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/latest- releases/tourism-and-migration/earnings-from-tourism 208Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 209Fiji Bureau of Statistics. (2018c). Visitor Arrivals Statistics. Accessed 30th September 2018. Available at https://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/index.php/statistics/ tourism-and-migration-statistics/visitor-arrivals-statistics. 210World Tourism Council. (2017). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017 Fiji. 170 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 171 At a national level, the most common sources of energy supply and their usage in The Draft Fijian Tourism 2021 plan aims to grow In 2013, all off-grid resorts and hotels were using diesel hotels are: “Electricity the tourism industry into a “FJD 2.2 billion industry, generators to meet their electricity demand with an increasing arrivals to Fiji to 930,000, deepening the average generator efficiency of 30%, or a total of 4.2 MW • Electricity; consumption in amount spent by tourists, and spreading benefits from in diesel generation capacity. Solar PV and wind use • Thermal energy (LPG) and other forms of fuel for thermal applications (cooking, Fijian hotels is tourism throughout the country, while developing a were negligible. Since 2013, a number of off-grid resorts laundry, water heating, etc.); and typically sector that is increasingly sustainable and inclusive have introduced solar and battery systems to cover all or • Petrol and diesel fuel for transport. In Fiji, many hotels also use backup generators dominated by in the future.”220 Strategy 21 of the Draft plan directly part of their electricity demand. Wind energy continues that use diesel fuel. 214 addresses the carbon emissions from Fiji’s tourism to play a very small role in electricity generation. air conditioning, sector, which is to “promote climate resilient Low Emission Development Scenarios for Electricity Electricity consumption in Fijian hotels is typically dominated by air conditioning, infrastructure and energy efficiency.”221 followed by lighting. Other major consumers of energy are kitchens (cooking), followed by Use in Off-Grid Hotels refrigeration, water heating, water pumping, laundry drying, and transport. A lighting” 215 The Green Growth Framework also identifies the need for widespread adoption of CO2 recovery techniques It has been assumed that 15% of off-grid hotels are feasibility study carried out in 2011 estimated that in Fiji, air conditioning and lighting, large hotels with an average daily electricity demand accounting for an estimated 70% of electricity use.216 in tourism, in addition to: increased composting of of 2,000 kWh and 85% are small hotels with a daily biodegradable waste, separation of waste materials A recent survey of hotels found that many are taking actions which will reduce their electricity demand of 90 kWh. Furthermore, an AAGR according to type, and strengthened monitoring of waste emissions as shown in Table 49 below. From the total of 42 resorts sampled, 19 of 0.2% in the number of off-grid hotels is assumed for disposal by the tourism sector.222 On greening tourism, responses were received.217 all scenarios. Therefore, electricity demand is assumed the Green Growth Framework identifies the promotion to grow from 10 GWh in 2013 to over 20 GWh by 2050 at of energy efficiency and waste management as key Table 49. Percentage of Resorts with Green Initiatives and Green Facilities.218 an annual rate of 1.5% if no energy efficiency measures areas for intervention that impact GHG emissions. The are implemented. To mitigate emissions from this Green Growth Framework encourages widespread use of Green Initiatives and Green Facilities Percentage of Resorts (%) increasing energy demand from the tourism sector, renewable energy powered transportation in the tourism Directly employed fish wardens, conservation officers 68% this LEDS proposes the adoption of varying capacities or similar. industry by 2019.223 of new solar PV, new wind, and energy storage. In the Formal or informal conservation agreements. Formal – 39% The NCCP also refers to the tourism sector as both a BAU Unconditional and Conditional scenarios new Informal – 39% sector that will need to adapt to climate change, but also IDO gensets are included. In the High Ambition and Informal – 39% No agreement – 26% a major emitter of GHGs in Fiji. The policy emphasises Very High Ambition scenarios, all future demand is Solar energy supply for the resort. 21% the need to involve the private sector in solutions for low met by renewables. Based on the above framework, Practicing organic gardening; for example, through 68% carbon, resilient energy and transport infrastructure, the four scenarios were developed with assumptions as composting. use of local produce, and investments that demonstrate described below. Water supply and water recycling in the resort; for 95% adaptation co-benefits.224 Unconditional Scenario example, through desalination plants and rainwater harvesting. Electricity for Tourism For demand: Proportion practicing waste management and waste recycling practices. 58% Future emissions from the tourism sector are included • There are no energy efficiency measures; and in the emissions described in section 4.1 of the LEDS • Energy usage is expected to grow at 1.5% per annum. with respect to the electricity demand projections for the Existing Policy Framework For generation: electricity grid. Resorts and hotels on the major islands The NDP includes the tourism sector as an area for “transformational strategic of Viti Levu, Vanua Levu, Ovalau, and Taveuni are nearly • Existing technologies are Diesel generators; and thrust” and also lists ecotourism as an important part of Fiji’s tourism sector. The NDP all grid-connected and have been considered in the grid commits to enhancing domestic air services to support growth in the tourism industry, electricity sector in section 4.1 where achieving 100% • In the future, new solar PV and new diesel generators while mandating sustainable energy use, enforcement of building codes related to renewable energy electricity generation will also mean are introduced, as solar is already being used by a energy efficiency, and enhanced waste management.219 These policies are important to that all grid-connected hotels are running on 100% number of off-grid tourism resort and is therefore counter emissions growth from the planned increase in number of tourists. renewable electricity. This section discusses electricity expected to continue expansion even under the BAU use for off-grid hotels only. unconditional scenario. 214SPC and GIZ. (2011). Introduction to Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for Hotels in Fiji with applications to other Pacific Island Countries. 215SPC and GIZ. (2011). Introduction to Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for Hotels in Fiji with applications to other Pacific Island Countries. 220Government of Fiji. (2017d). Draft Fijian Tourism 2021. 216WWF. (2011). PowerPoint Presentation: Hotels Energy Efficiency Project. 221Government of Fiji. (2017d). Draft Fijian Tourism 2021. 217GGGI. (2018b). Green Jobs Survey. 222Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 218GGGI. (2018b). Green Jobs Survey. 223Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 219Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. 224Government of Fiji. (2018b). National Climate Change Policy. 172 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 173 Conditional Scenario Table 50. Generation capacity and investment requirements for the tourism sector until 2050. For demand: “In the future, only 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • Energy efficiency measure are implemented; and new solar PV, Unconditional • Energy demand is assumed to grow at 1.2% per annum giving rise to almost 10% wind and Cumulative New IDO 0.44 0.56 0.68 0.84 1.00 1.16 1.80 2.12 reduction in energy demand by 2050, compared to unconditional scenario and energy storage capacity addition (MW) New Solar PV 3.30 4.20 5.40 6.30 7.50 9.00 13.50 16.20 reducing investment costs. technologies are Cumulative investment cost (USD 5.97 7.59 9.72 11.39 13.56 16.23 24.41 29.25 million) For generation: introduced to meet Conditional • Existing technologies are diesel generators; and demand in off-grid Cumulative New IDO 0.24 0.28 0.36 0.44 0.48 0.56 0.88 1.04 • In the future, new solar PV, new diesel generators and new wind technologies are hotels” capacity addition (MW) New Solar PV 1.80 2.40 2.70 3.30 3.90 4.50 6.90 7.80 introduced. New Wind 1.20 1.40 1.80 2.00 2.40 2.80 4.40 5.20 High Ambition Scenario Cumulative investment cost (USD 6.42 8.00 9.63 11.25 13.35 15.49 24.05 27.83 For demand: million) High Ambition • There is a greater implementation of energy efficiency measures than in the Cumulative New Solar PV 2.40 2.70 3.30 5.40 5.70 7.80 10.50 12.90 conditional scenario; and capacity New Wind 1.60 1.80 2.20 3.40 3.80 5.00 7.00 8.40 • The energy demand is assumed to grow at 0.9% per annum giving rise to almost addition (MW) Cumulative investment cost (USD 8.26 9.29 11.35 18.05 19.61 26.30 36.12 43.85 20% reduction in energy demand by 2050 compared to unconditional scenario. million) For generation: Very High Ambition • Existing technologies are diesel generators. This capacity is assumed to be almost Cumulative capacity New Solar PV 2.40 2.70 4.50 6.00 7.50 9.30 11.70 12.30 completely retired by 2050. By 2030, there will be 3 MW left compared to 4.2 MW in addition (MW) New Wind 1.40 1.60 2.80 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.80 8.20 2013, 2 MW left by 2040 and 1 MW left by 2050; and Cumulative investment cost (USD 7.73 8.76 14.95 20.64 25.80 31.46 40.25 42.31 • In the future, only new solar PV and new wind technologies are introduced to meet million) demand. These new technology investments are projected to result in the following electricity generation mix for tourism Very High Ambition Scenario from 2013-2050, as shown for the different scenarios in Figures 78 through 81 below. For demand: Figure 78. Unconditional scenario electricity generation for off-grid hotels. • There is a greater implementation of energy efficiency measures than in the high ambition scenario; and • The energy demand is assumed to grow at 0.5% per annum giving rise to almost 30% reduction in energy demand by 2050 compared to unconditional scenario and reducing costs of investment in this scenario compared to the high ambition scenario. For generation: • Existing technologies are diesel generators. This capacity is assumed to be completely retired by 2050; and • In the future, only new solar PV, and new wind technologies are introduced to meet demand. The new capacity and investment required for this are outlined in Table 50. As net zero emissions (through utilization of renewable electricity) can be reached in the High Ambition scenario, the High Ambition and Very High Ambition are similar. 174 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 175 Figure 79. Conditional scenario electricity generation for off-grid hotels. Figure 81. Very High Ambition scenario for electricity generation for off-grid hotels. “Energy efficiency can play a large role in reducing emissions and investments costs for the tourism sector” Figure 80. High Ambition scenario for electricity generation for off-grid hotels.225 The total renewable energy contributions to electricity generation are outlined in Table 51 below. Energy efficiency savings would also be expected of 10% under conditional, 20% under high ambition and almost 30% under very high ambition, which would also play a large role in reducing emissions and investments costs for the tourism sector. Table 51. Renewable energy contributions to meeting off-grid hotel electricity demand in 2030 and 2050. % contribution Unconditional Conditional High Ambition Very High Ambition 2030 65 82 97 99 2050 72 92 100 100 Transport for Tourism Of course, domestic air, land, and maritime transport are also crucial components of the tourism sector. This LEDS already includes mitigation actions aimed at promoting the decarbonisation of Fiji’s domestic air sector in section 4.4, including extensive use of solar energy to power Fiji’s airports as well as other measures. Solarisation of the airports would be a very visible action for the domestic air sector. In the land transport sector (section 4.2) major emissions reductions will be achieved through the adoption of HEVs and EVs. It is envisioned that the tourism sector’s land transport vehicles will participate in this transition on the same timeline as the rest of the economy. There is, however, an opportunity for the tourism industry to be a first-mover in adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles, which can immediately contribute to increasing Fiji’s 225Under the High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios, existing diesel generators are retired much earlier (in 2030), compared to the BAU image as a green tourist destination and allow tourism-oriented businesses to scenarios. This means that new solar PV and new wind would be added to meet the demand. In the modelling, the dispatch rule used for solar and wind increasingly market Fiji as a green tourism destination. technologies is “full capacity.” This means that if wind and solar PV are online, then they will be generating based on their available full capacity and are not curtailed to just meet the demand. Therefore, although energy efficiency measures are applied for the HA and VHA scenarios, this is not reflected in Similarly, marine transport services are an important part of the tourism sector. Figure 80 and 81. In reality, the excess electricity generated would be sent to a suitable storage system. The domestic tourism maritime fleet is among the largest for emission sources for maritime transport contributing 19.3% to overall emissions for that sub-sector in 2016 176 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 177 (see section 4.3). While maritime transport emissions its activities contributing to the increasing the carbon 4.8.3 Commercial, Industrial, and Manufacturing Sectors are presumed to be low for hotels on Viti Levu, fuel footprint of Fiji and, if not managed well, decreasing “The industrial usage for transport to and from the many island carbon sinks, such as forests and mangroves. On the Overview resorts in the Yasawas, Mamanucas, and elsewhere is other hand, the tourism industry can also be aligned and manufacturing Fiji’s commercial sector, excluding farming, manufacturing, transport, and tourism, estimated to result in both high costs for hotels and in to the measures proposed by the LEDS for agriculture, consists of service-providing facilities and businesses and consumes high levels sector generates high emissions.226 While many of Fiji’s coastal tourism forestry, and mangroves, thereby promoting low carbon of energy and resources, largely through energy use in buildings and in transport. around 16% of operators value and promote “green” attributes and have growth in the industries that support its food, furniture, Commercial buildings are those that are used for commercial purposes and include: taken steps to introduce energy efficiency and renewable and other supply chains. office buildings, warehouses, and retail buildings (e.g., convenience stores, large total CO2 emissions, electricity, to date there has been limited consideration stores, and shopping malls). The commercial sector contributes significantly to GDP, the second largest given to greening maritime transport. Responsible Waste and Tourism tourism operators have a strong track record as market with wholesale and retail, ICT services, real estate, and finance and insurance alone source of emissions Tourism in Fiji also contributes significantly to solid contributing a combined 32% of GDP.227 With respect to energy, the primary sources innovators in terms of maritime transport, and there waste generation, particularly food, plastic, and general of emissions in the commercial sector are emissions from grid and off-grid electricity after transport” are significant opportunities to leverage greening of waste. All the waste emissions from the tourism sector use, including from diesel and HFO generators, LPG used for cooking, and other fuel the domestic shipping fleet. Section 4.3 covers many on the main islands of Fiji are included in section 4.7. use for thermal applications, as well as emissions from fuel used for transport. of the options which are also available for the tourism fleet. Further, there is an opportunity to reduce fuel Currently, most waste in Fiji’s tourism sector is The industrial and manufacturing sector in Fiji is closely associated with the use of use through transition from 2-stroke to 4-stroke landfilled or dumped at solid waste disposal sites with natural resources as well as energy for operating production plants and equipment outboard motors in the tourism maritime transport very limited recycling and diversion of organic waste. which process raw materials into finished goods. Manufacturing contributes sub-sector. A saving of 30-40% in fuel use is possible, There are many off-shore island resorts that recycle approximately 14% of GDP, while construction and mining contribute approximately with corresponding savings in emissions. There are also solid waste and waste water in recognition of the scarce 3% and 2%, respectively.228 When considering its contribution to emissions across a small number of tourist attractions which feature low resources available on the smaller islands and the all sectors, it is estimated that the cross-cutting manufacturing sector – including or zero carbon vessels (solar and wind power being the high transport cost of both bringing commodities and manufacturing of textiles, garments, footwear, sugar, tobacco, food processing, predominant technologies used). It will soon also be shipping waste, off the islands. New, more rigorous and beverages (including mineral water), wood-based industries, cement, and construction possible to use electric outboard motors, which could be more widespread waste management plans are needed activities – generates around 16% of total CO2 emissions, the second largest source powered through solar energy as well as, to deploy zero- to reduce the waste generated in the tourism sector, and of emissions after transport.229 While emissions from primary agricultural production carbon vessels operating predominantly using solar and to provide greater opportunity for recycling paper and are allocated to the AFOLU sector, emissions from food processing are allocated to the wind power technologies. plastics and composting food waste. industry and manufacturing sector. The cement and mining industry are highly energy intensive industries. The actions needed are highlighted in section 4.7 for Agriculture, Forestry, and Mangroves for Tourism the economy as a whole and the same actions largely Electricity Use Agriculture, forestry, and related land use is an integral hold true for the tourism sector, including greater component of tourism in Fiji. Ecotourism often takes implementation of recycling, reuse, and reduction of In this LEDS, commercial demand for grid electricity is expected to grow by 2.6% per place in regions where the land cover is largely natural, waste. The High Ambition Scenario for the waste sector year in the BAU Unconditional scenario and LPG demand grows by 5% per year in particularly natural forests. However, the economic envisions 40% of plastics and 30% of paper be recycled BAU Conditional, High Ambition, and Very High Ambition scenarios. The actions for importance of ecotourism in Fijian forests is relatively to reduce emissions and includes measures to place mitigating emissions from electricity in the commercial sector are covered by sector low as most tourism is coastal, and mangroves play a recycling bins in all hotels and resorts accompanied 4.1 on electricity. more important role in these areas. Tourism can play a by fines for failing to do so. The introduction of Another consideration is electricity generation and consumption by industries and role in promoting the economic as well as low carbon minimum waste management standards in the tourism manufacturing plants to process raw materials and to produce marketable products, benefits of forest and mangrove conservation, as these sector are an additional measure, accompanied by such as in mining. Emissions from this sector have been covered within section 4.1 on ecosystems provide the “product” being sold to tourists. enforcement measures. Food waste generated in electricity. As noted in section 4.1, significant off-grid emissions also exist in the case hotels can be composted at little additional cost to the of Vatukoula Gold Mines PLC (VGM) which is fully dependent on diesel generators. Tourism also has a strong influence on the agriculture hotel and used in in-situ organic gardens, reducing Figure 82 below displays the emissions from VGM for the four scenarios, and Figure sector. As guests need to be supplied with food, the transport costs. Another option is to use food waste in 83 displays the total investments required to achieve long-term deep decarbonisation number of visitors and the length of their stay have anaerobic digestors to produce biogas for cooking. Both for the scenarios. Measures to shift the mine to grid-based electricity can mitigated a direct impact on local agriculture. A substitution options are win-wins for the tourism industry and the significant emissions as the grid moves to 100% renewable generation. of imports with food produced in country could lead environment as the tourism industry will avoid the costs to a substantial increase in agricultural production. of transporting waste to SWDS. From an environmental Therefore, to cater for the tourism industry, increasing viewpoint, diverting organic waste from the landfill local agricultural production would result in an increase reduces GHG emissions, thereby achieving the emission in emissions, especially in livestock farming and meat reduction targets in the waste sector. 227Fiji Bureau of Statistics. (2017). Key Statistics – National Income, GDP by Industry, December 2017. production. 228Fiji Bureau of Statistics. (2017). Key Statistics – National Income, GDP by Industry, December 2017. 229Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. Tourism is an energy intensive industry with several of 226For example, one Fijian resort on a small island currently uses approximately 80,000 L of fuel for its maritime transport, in comparison to 36,000 L for electricity and water desalination annually. 178 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 179 Figure 82. Emissions from Vatukoula Gold Mine generation. Transport fuel costs, enabling more stable prices and efficient operation of routes. Upfront capital costs will be high, The commercial, industrial, and manufacturing sectors but if these can be overcome through subsidy shifts from are heavy users of transport services. As seen in recurring costs to capital costs, there will be savings section 4.2 on land transport, trucks and heavy goods in operational expenditures in the short-term and the vehicles largely used in the commercial, industrial, and structural changes to the maritime freight sector will manufacturing sectors emit 45% of GHG emissions in be economically beneficial in the long-term through the land transport sector, even though they only make environmental co-benefits of less local pollution. up only about 19% of vehicles on the road. Transitioning to a decarbonised domestic shipping The costs of implementing mitigation actions in land sector will require significant investment by both the transport are predicted to be especially high for the government and the private sector, initially to retrofit commercial, industrial, and manufacturing sectors existing ships and ultimately to build new ships and due to increasing costs for transitioning larger freight change operational practices (please see Maritime transport vehicles towards hybrid and electric. These transport chapter for options available). As noted in vehicles are expected to be more expensive than those section 4.3 above, future scenarios are envisioned where currently used, especially since many commercial larger fleets of smaller vessels operating on a hub- vehicles on the road today are either old or second-hand. and-spoke model are expected to replace Fiji’s current Another action that will add cost but cut emissions is reliance on a smaller number of larger ships. This offers the scrapping of freight vehicles after they reach 15 the potential to revitalise Fiji’s ship building industry. years of age as mentioned in the High Ambition Scenario While this may include construction of larger vessels, of section 4.2 above. As trucks would be used over a there are numerous opportunities for smaller industrial Figure 83. Total Investment Costs for Energy for Vatukoula Gold Mine. shorter period, this again would increase transport expansion into the niche markets of manufacturing, costs and affect primarily the commercial sector and the fitting, maintaining, and adapting individual technological agricultural industry, such as Fiji’s sugarcane industry components such as Flettner rotor231 housings, improved which relies heavily on old and very old trucks. It is worth electric hybrid componentry, including maritime battery noting that there are around 1,500 sugarcane trucks, technologies, sales and service of small boat improved representing about 7% of the truck fleet, operating hull designs, e-motors, hybrid and auxiliary sail systems, during a four-month harvesting season, i.e., their annual and other green technologies. mileage is only a fraction of the mileage of conventional Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use trucks. Hence, sugarcane trucks only represent around 1% of total and 2% of truck emissions of Fiji. The small For the AFOLU sector, commercial and smallholder annual mileage driven by these units will also make agriculture are the main drivers of deforestation. replacement with new trucks costly as investments will Commercial agriculture has established increasing need to be recovered very slowly.230 These investments amounts of cash crops, such as kava and taro given the will, nevertheless, be necessary to successfully favourable market conditions, both of which have been decarbonise Fiji’s sugar, and more broadly, agricultural a common cause of deforestation. Although commercial industry. harvesting of native forests has been significantly replaced by timber extraction from plantations, this Fossil fuels currently comprise between 40-60% timber harvesting to supply commercial markets is the of most shipping operational expenditures. While main contributor to unregulated forest degradation. decarbonisation of the maritime transport sector Introduction of more sustainable practices for through improved energy efficiency, renewable energy, commercial agriculture will be important in enabling and biofuels poses real and significant challenges to Fiji to reach net zero and net negative emissions in the Fiji, it is also an opportunity for the commercial sector AFOLU sector as outlined in section 4.6. to renew its fleet and save operational costs. The prime opportunity for Fiji’s commercial sector is to utilize a Commercial forestry and agriculture also play an decarbonisation plan to deliver alternative shipping important role in avoiding emissions in the electricity services that are carbon friendly and cut recurring sector. Emissions from fossil energy sources are avoided through the use of bagasse, wood, and woody biomass 230GGGI. (2017). Emission control strategy for trucks and buses in Fiji. 231A Flettner rotor is a smooth cylinder with disc end plates which is spun along its long axis and, as air passes at right angles across it, the Magnus effect causes an aerodynamic force to be generated in the third dimension. 180 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 181 for electricity production.232 For Fiji’s net zero electricity of other industry in the area);233 and sector, many commercial plantations, specifically for • Promoting use of wood in commercial, industrial, and biomass production for the electricity sector, will have manufacturing sectors and the production of wood to be planted, creating jobs and income in a new and and biomass-based products. growing industry for Fiji. The use of wood for energy is carbon neutral, whereas the material use of wood in Many of these actions need to be taken alongside manufacturing generally produces significantly lower actions for climate-resilient tourism and commercial emissions than when manufacturing comparable development, such as resilient energy and transport products made of non-renewable materials. For infrastructure for tourism and commerce, use of example, manufacturing a wooden window frame materials and building techniques which consider typically results in one twentieth of the emissions of climate change affects to improve durability and lifetime manufacturing an aluminium window frame. (For this of developments, and other measures. Climate change LEDS, the energetic use of wood and resulting emissions will similarly affect forestry and agricultural sectors are considered part of electricity use in commerce, and may impact their ability to contribute to mitigation industry, and manufacturing. Nevertheless, emissions actions. Thus, building resilience in agriculture and are assumed to be net zero; additional analysis would be forestry to climate change can also contribute to required to quantify any emissions from the burning of meeting mitigation targets. biomass). For additional information on the linkages between low emission development and climate change adaption, Policy Recommendations and Priority Actions please see Chapter 5. Many policy recommendations and priority actions from other chapters will also have a significant impact on the tourism, commercial, manufacturing, and industrial 5 CLIMATE CHANGE sectors. Some of the short-term measures which will result in sustained emission reductions include: • Mainstreaming low carbon development into all tourism-, commercial-, and manufacturing-related ADAPTATION AND plans, frameworks, and legislation; • Promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy use in these sectors through appropriate incentives and regulations; • Benchmarking of energy consumption and RESILIENCE introducing minimum energy performance standards for hotels and resorts, as well as for commercial buildings; • Adoption of the ISO 50001:2011 standard in the tourism and commercial sectors; • Incentives introduced for switching from 2-stroke to 4-stroke outboard motors, for electric motors, and for solar charging for tourism vessels; • Connection to the grid of major off-grid industrial and manufacturing energy users, such as mines, where possible so that their electricity is sourced from renewable energy rather than diesel or HFO gensets (e.g., specifically, the completion of the Vatukoula Gold Mines Grid Extension, including the connection 232The energetic use of wood also leads to the release of CO . However, it is important to note that only the amount of CO that was previously 2 2 sequestered from the atmosphere by biomass growth is emitted into the atmosphere. 233Government of Fiji. (2017b). NDC Implementation Roadmap 2017-2030. 182 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 183 5 CLIMATE CHANGE and floods also have severe impact on poverty, causing an estimated 25,700 people, or 3.7% of Fiji’s total While mitigation strategies, such as those included in Fiji’s NDC and this LEDS, do not directly influence

5.3 NAP FRAMEWORK AND NAP The Government of Fiji adopted its NAP Framework ADAPTATION AND population, to fall into poverty in 2017.239 The predicted annual rainfall for Fiji under different climate resilience, they are expected to have synergistic benefits in climate adaptation and overall climate in October 2017 and submitted it to the UNFCCC Secretariat in June 2018. The NAP Framework provides RESILIENCE emission scenarios varies and shows insignificant changes over time. However, the models show that Fiji’s resilience. Building climate resilience into mitigation actions can help avoid or reduce the impacts of climate Fiji’s approach to enhance capacity to undertake climate change adaptation under the UNFCCC process. change in those actions. Fiji’s proactive adaptation The NAP Framework builds on guiding principles, average temperature is likely to increase with high and

5.1 NATIONAL CONTEXT – CLIMATE medium confidence. Although the frequency of climate planning can be amplified through the enhanced such as participatory and inclusiveness, pro-poor, RISK IN FIJI hazards is not expected to change significantly in the mitigation measures contained in this LEDS when the robust decision-making, and managing trade-offs.244 implementation of these measures is undertaken jointly These principles apply to the main policy guidance for Fiji is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world future, all models predict increasing intensity of TCs with climate adaptation actions. mitigation and adaptation that stem from the revised to climate change due to its geographic location, status resulting in more severe damage.240 as a SIDS, and the importance of natural resources to NCCP, the Green Growth Framework and the adaptation its main economic sectors (such as agriculture and Infrastructure in Fiji – including water, energy, and 5.2 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY component of the Government of Fiji’s NDC. These transportation systems – are concentrated along the tourism). Fiji is particularly vulnerable to floods and FRAMEWORK important policies inform the NAP, which serves as the coast and, therefore, particularly exposed to climate tropical cyclones (TCs), which already have significant Fiji’s 2017 Climate Vulnerability Assessment covers all vehicle for translating the short-, medium-, and long- change risks, such as sea-level rise and exposure to impacts on the economy and society.234 Fiji is located sectors and has prioritised five key intervention areas to term goals into action. storm surges. Since basic infrastructure provides critical among the most vulnerable sub-regions in the Pacific address climate change impacts more effectively over The NAP process aims to incorporate climate change services to other sectors, any risks to infrastructure can in terms of the intensity and frequency of severe natural the next decade, these are: increasing urban resilience; adaptation planning into sustainable development negatively impact all economic activities. Although it is disasters. The impact of climate change on Fiji will improving infrastructure services (resilient power strategies, while minimizing the irreversible impacts too early to predict the exact impacts of climate change, depend on regional factors, such as the South Pacific systems, transport, infrastructure); supporting climate of climate change during the development process. increasing temperatures in coastal areas and coral reef Convergence Zone. smart agriculture and fisheries; conserving ecosystems; The NAP also specifically identifies the linkages and bleaching events are already visible impacts of climate While there is limited data on climate change in Fiji, change in Fiji. and building socioeconomic resilience. synergies with this LEDS. The focus of the NAP is according to the National Meteorological Service, by Critically, Fiji’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment serves climate adaptation planning, and while it does not To address the risks posed by climate change 2016 the mean average air temperature in Fiji increased as the policy basis for actions to build Fiji’s climate directly address mitigation actions, it does consider challenges in the near- and long-term, Fiji prepared by 0.9°C over the past 50 years due to climate change. resilience over the next decade in five intervention mitigation co-benefits by prioritising “low-regret a national Climate Vulnerability Assessment241 and a The average sea temperature also increased by 0.3°C areas: ensuring serviced land and housing in safe areas; options,” such as those developed in this LEDS.245 National Adaptation Plan Framework242 in 2017 and every 10 years over recent decades.235 While long-term strengthening infrastructure to meet the needs of the The Government of Fiji used an ecosystem-based adopted the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in 2018. precipitation patterns have not changed and the number economy and population; supporting agriculture and adaptation (EBA) approach for its NAP Framework to Under its NAP, Fiji’s vision is “to anticipate, reduce, of TCs affecting Fiji has slightly decreased, there has fisheries development that is smart for the climate, the complement efforts to build local- and community- and manage environmental and climate risks caused been a statistically significant increase in the intensity environment, and the economy; enacting conservation level climate resilience. The NAP mainstreams climate by climate variability and change to support a vibrant of those cyclones. An average of 28 cyclones per decade policies that protect assets and reduce adaptation costs; resilient planning across the economy and will achieve society and prosperous economy.”243 The long-term developed within or crossed Fiji’s EEZ between 1969/70 and building socioeconomic resilience, taking care of the social, economic, and environmental benefits, while mitigation actions envisioned in this LEDS are intended and 2010/11 seasons. 25 out of 78 (32%) TCs between poor, and keeping economic growth inclusive. actively integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies. to align directly with, and complement, the adaptation the 1981/82 and 2010/11 seasons became severe events The EBA approach has already been used in Fiji’s actions prioritised in the NAP. While the specific sub- Because the Climate Vulnerability Assessment, and its (Category 3 or stronger) in Fiji’s EEZ.236 The average Integrated Coastal Management Framework (2011), the sectors addressed in this LEDS do not match those in identified interventions, are oriented towards climate number of TCs for all the 49 seasons (November – National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (2005), the Climate Vulnerability Assessment, the two plans resilient infrastructure, urban areas, agricultural April) 1969/70 to 2017/18 is 7.1 TCs.237 The estimated and the National State of Environment Report (2013). are comprehensive and should be seen as directly systems, asset protection, and inclusive economic average annual asset losses due to TCs and floods is complementary. growth, it is essential that such systems are designed The Government of Fiji has raised awareness of its NDP, approximately USD 234.16 million, or FJD 500 million. with in-built climate resilience as they are decarbonised. and of climate resilient development in general, but In 2016, tropical cyclone Winston alone resulted in a Climate resilience and mitigation actions are in many effectively implementing the Plan at the sub-national loss of 20% of Fiji’s total GDP, or FJD 2 billion.238 TCs ways synergistic; the more mitigation is undertaken, the level has been challenging. The NAP Framework less adaptation that may be necessary in the long-term. enhances the interlinkages between national- and 234Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 235Government of Fiji. (2018b). National Climate Change Policy. 236BOM. (2014). Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific: New Science and Updated Country Reports. In Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Technical Report. Melbourne: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). 237Fiji Meteorological Service. (2018). Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2018-19. Accessed 5th November 2018. Available at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/ 244Government of Fiji. (2017e). National Adaptation Plan Framework. TC_SeasonalOutlook_2018_19.pdf. 245Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 238Government of Fiji. (2017c). Climate Vulnerability Assessment. 239Government of Fiji. (2017c). Climate Vulnerability Assessment. 240Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 241Government of Fiji. (2017c). Climate Vulnerability Assessment. 242Government of Fiji. (2017e). National Adaptation Plan Framework. 243Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 184 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 185 sub-national-level government agencies, while to more complete data collection on climate actions and 5.5.1 Infrastructure: Electricity and Other Energy facilitating cross-sectoral collaboration, to effectively risks in Fiji. This would include observations of climate Generation and Use “The strategies address climate adaptation. The same network can be risks and impacts on individual sectors (including those utilized to implement other government policies and covered in the LEDS) as a key initial step for developing As with other infrastructure, on-grid and off-grid electricity generation is at increased outlined in the strategies, including those related to climate change long-term climate resilience strategies. risk from sea-level rise (in coastal areas), floods, and cyclones and other extreme weather events (particularly hydropower facilities and electricity transmission lines). NAP are consistent mitigation and poverty reduction. While a number of mitigation strategies proposed in this Certain feedstocks used in biofuel and biojet production could also be adversely with and highly The NAP describes adaptation measures for five LEDS contribute to efforts to improve climate resilience, affected by severe weather and, thus, measures will need to be taken to consider these complementary “sectors,” including: food security, which encompasses long-term climate vulnerabilities and risks will require risks. It is also worth noting that extreme weather events, including natural disasters, agriculture and fisheries health; human settlements; regular attention and response measures, particularly could also create pressures to “fall back” on more conventional off-grid fossil fuel- to the mitigation infrastructure, which includes water and sanitation, as they may undermine mitigation efforts. The Climate based energy systems – e.g., gensets, when existing generation systems are off-line – actions for the energy, transport, and hazard management; and Vulnerability Assessment, NAP Framework, and NAP biodiversity and the natural environment, which combined serve as the foundation for promoting hence, there is a need to make preparations that avoid those options where possible. electricity sector in includes mangroves and natural forests.246 adaptation and resilience for Fiji, and these should be With regard to energy, the NAP outlines several short-term and long-term strategies, the LEDS” all of which are consistent with and highly complementary to proposed mitigation implemented in close coordination with the mitigation The NAP calls for short-term and long-term actions for electricity and other energy use in the LEDS. Design, installation, and strategies outlined in Fiji’s LEDS, over the long-term, adaptation measures consistent with this LEDS for construction standards involved in implementing LEDS scenarios will need to be and NDC, in the near-term (as well as future updates to reducing climate and environmental risk in each reviewed to meet climate resilience requirements. Mitigation plans considered in the Fiji’s NDC and LEDS). sector. With regard to infrastructure (including LEDS were developed with recognition that wind farms, solar PVs on rooftops and energy, transport, and waste), this includes working Key questions that Fiji will need to address and reservoirs, and solar home systems (SHSs) may be at risk from damage from extreme to ensure infrastructure functions for its full intended periodically review in considering climate resilience in events, such as TCs, extreme rainfalls, floods, storm surges, and droughts. Similarly, lifespan as well as promoting infrastructure that is mitigation measures include the following: there will be a need to assess operation of hydropower and other renewable energy resilient to climate risks and can meet all future needs sources to maximise output under new climate conditions. 1. Will the mitigation action or project be affected by while operating under future conditions. Regarding predicted climate change risks? In the near-term, the NAP proposes to endorse the National Energy Policy and to agriculture and fisheries, the NAP aims to improve 2. How will the mitigation action be affected and how create a long-term resilience strategy for the energy sector that addresses the most capacity to anticipate climate events and to transform can those risks be reduced or eliminated? vulnerable power system and network components and works to use international and reorient the agricultural system to produce food and domestic financing for priority investments. Consistent with the LEDS, the NAP sustainably without degrading soils. The NAP also 3. Will the climate change adaptation measure or proposes to investigate options for increasing energy resilience through demand- calls for supporting biodiversity (including mangroves) project increase carbon emissions? side management and to expand solar generation, including additional generation and the natural environment and the services it 4. Is there a low or no-carbon alternative to the in Northwest Viti Levu (5.5 MW solar plants with storage) and distributed generation provides. adaptation measure or project? in Vanua Levu (5 MW). The NAP also proposes to enhance insurance coverage of key energy assets as part of the national Disaster Risk Financing Strategy and to expand

5.4 MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE 5. Are there adaptation actions that will increase the underground distribution lines. Long-term strategies include: diversifying renewable RESILIENCE INTO CLIMATE mitigation potential of the activity or project, or energy generation to improve resilience (directly consistent with proposed High MITIGATION ACTIONS vice versa? Ambition and Very high Ambition scenarios in the LEDS); increasing investments in One of the main challenges to mainstreaming climate rural mini-grids and solar home systems (simultaneously investing and improving resilience in Fiji across all sectors is closing the data

5.5 SYNERGIES BETWEEN ADAPTATION design and installation standards to ensure their resilience) and diversifying gap and conducting a comprehensive assessment of AND MITIGATION ACTIONS IN THIS distributed generation options (including mini-grids); working to optimise hydropower climate change impacts and actions to adapt to and LEDS operations under new climate conditions; and reviewing design and construction mitigate climate change. Climate change models can While the broad linkages and synergies between standards for energy facilities and solar home systems for climate resilience. also be improved with comprehensive and complete adaptation and mitigation planning processes are The NAP emphasis on the national development pathway towards climate-resilient observations and real-time data. The NAP calls for a outlined above, there are also sector-specific synergies. development in the long-term should ensure that mitigation actions are risk-proofed comprehensive climate assessment, to be repeated Each section below briefly explores sector-specific during installation to reduce their vulnerability to future climate change impacts, as part of a regular process, which would contribute climate risks, linkages and synergies for the sectors while insurance of assets should also be enhanced. The NAP, thus, recommends an included in the LEDS. assessment of the costs and benefits of key measures for improving the resilience of the power system and sourcing of concessional funds to meet the financial viability gap. This action will also strengthen the financial viability and sustainability of the LEDS mitigation actions. It is also worth noting that if the global community fails 246Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. to halt further increase in temperatures, it may increase demand for energy use and projections from mitigation actions may fall short of the targets. Again, taking a national development pathway towards climate-resilient development will be an ongoing process. 186 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 187

5.5.2 Infrastructure: Land, Maritime, to increasingly strong storm events and changing LEDS) which minimises waste through both actions 5.5.5 Biodiversity: Forestry (including and Air Transport weather patterns. In part, to address these issues the to prevent and reduce the creation of waste as well as Plantation Forests) and Coastal NAP calls for new or upgraded climate resilient jetties reuse and recycle waste when created. It also calls for This LEDS recognizes the numerous vulnerabilities of and landings and repairs and upgrades to lighthouses, a comprehensive assessment of all of Fiji’s water and Wetlands transport infrastructure during the next three decades The NAP’s focus on Biodiversity and the Natural beacons, and other navigation aids.248 Smaller vessels sanitation infrastructure, in order to meet current and including: increased risk of rising sea levels to seaports, Environment correlates closely with LEDS coverage and technology, such as WiG craft and dirigibles, future needs, in light of climate change projections. Over roads, and airports in coastal areas; and risks from of forests and coastal wetlands (mangroves). Forests also have potential to allow more direct access to the long-term, the NAP proposes: to require national extreme weather and floods in virtually all locations. and mangroves are both threatened by climate change communities and reduce reliance on vulnerable and sub-national government to prepare and publish The Climate Vulnerability Assessment places much impacts, but also play important roles in reducing shoreside infrastructure. climate disaster management plans detailing how water focus on the need for future infrastructure investment to climate risks. and sanitation resources will be managed and protected; ensure resilience to climate change and natural hazards, The NAP does not directly address adaptation for to upgrade and develop new appropriate water and Mangroves and seagrass beds possess extensive including transport infrastructure. The assessment domestic air transport, but this too is an important sanitation infrastructure; to develop and implement new root systems that prevent coastal erosion and help in indicates that almost FJD 9 billion will be needed to consideration for the LEDS. Mitigation actions identified appropriate building codes, zoning, and construction absorbing wave impact and creating calmer conditions climate-proof infrastructure over the next 10 years.247 for the domestic air transport sector are aligned with the codes for water and sanitation infrastructure; and to inland. Depending on the width of mangrove belts, storm Government of Fiji’s national climate change adaptation Whereas the LEDS considers land, domestic maritime, improve overall planning for water and sanitation.249 surges are dampened by the aerial and prop roots of and resilience objectives. However, the materials and and domestic air transport as individual sectors, mangroves, thus contributing to disaster risk reduction. equipment, like solar PV systems and aircrafts, may all transport is considered collectively in Fiji’s NAP, be more vulnerable to climate risks than conventional 5.5.4 Food Security: Agriculture which proposes a series of short-term measures all Climate change will put mangrove forests at risk. systems and aircraft. Several key considerations for the agricultural sector Deterioration in the ability of mangrove forests to survive complementary to proposed actions in the LEDS. Such relate to LEDS scenarios. For example, extreme events, measures will yield direct or indirect benefits with over the medium- and long-term is threatened by sea- regard to emissions mitigation. Regarding all transport

5.5.3 Infrastructure: Waste (including such as high rainfall, floods, and droughts, can affect level rise and other related hazards. Any gradual decline livestock production and management. Land arability infrastructure, the NAP proposes to develop certification Water and Sanitation) of mangroves will have subsequent implications for could be reduced due to salt water intrusion, coastal coastal management, disaster management, and food standards for climate proofing transport infrastructure The implementation of integrated solid waste and riverbank erosion, exposure to salt water spray, and establishing measures to ensure compliance, and to management strategies in the LEDS will not only reduce security. The topic of fisheries is of special interest to and heat stress on soils. Further, floods, droughts, and the NAP due to the magnitude of threat posed by climate promote institution strengthening and capacity building emissions from the waste sector but will have a positive cyclones may physically damage crops, farm equipment, for integrated transport planning. impact for climate change adaptation and resilience. change to inshore and offshore fisheries. The viability of and infrastructure. In addition, high temperatures inshore fisheries is inextricably tied to the future of coral The recent Climate Vulnerability Assessment (2017) and changing rainfall patterns may impact on yields With regard to land transport, the NAP proposes to: reefs, seagrasses, and mangroves over a medium- to highlighted the need to improve waste management and of traditional food crop varieties and may lead to an conduct road inspections, renew and upgrade road long-term timeframe.251 processing to reduce pressure on the environment and increase in pests and diseases. infrastructure to address current and future risks, ecosystems. Some issues at the interface between waste Inland forests are also vulnerable. Higher temperatures address the impacts of overloaded trucks on sealed road Important measures proposed in the NAP, which and climate vulnerability include: the risks that are make forests more vulnerable to fires. Higher pavement and bridges and to enforce load restrictions, could enhance the effectiveness of the LEDS, include a exacerbated by poorly managed waste, such as plastic, temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns may and work to renew and upgrade priority water crossings number of long-term measures, such as: undertaking and plastic bottles blocking drainage systems. Reducing lead to increased occurrence of invasive species and to withstand climate impacts. regular climate change assessments; GIS mapping and waste generation and implementing 3R policies would pests. Forest health could be undermined due to salt Maritime transport has been described as the lifeline of indirectly reduce the impacts of flooding in cities. crop modelling with view to the effects on infrastructure water intrusion, coastal and river-bank erosion, and Pacific SIDS, such as Fiji. It is essential to all agendas For Fiji, sea-level rise is among the most serious and supply chains; production, distribution, and exposure to salt water sprays and heat stress on soils. for climate change resilience, adaptation, economic consequences of climate change. However, most of processing; improving measures to protect against Floods, droughts, and cyclones may physically damage and sustainable development (including fulfilling Fiji’s waste disposal sites have been developed near the invasive species, pests, and diseases which can affect forest plantations, natural forest, and associated most SDGs), government service delivery, and natural sea and are vulnerable to coastal flooding, which could plant and livestock production; strengthening Fiji’s infrastructure. Changing temperature and rainfall disaster preparedness and response. With regard to also result in marine pollution. The mitigation potential disaster preparedness efforts in the agriculture sector patterns may cause shifts in habitats and boundaries of climate change adaptation, which is inherently linked to in the waste sector could also be hindered by future by encouraging the protection, breeding, and cultivation certain tree species, pollinators, and seed dispersers enhanced community resilience and sustainability, the extreme climate events, such as flooding, rainfall, and of indigenous species as well as improved seed and which can affect the flowering behaviour of certain tree maritime transport sector is particularly vulnerable and generation, and extreme rainfall could collapse landfills food storage; strengthening research collaboration species. Beyond these concerns, loss of arable land due of high strategic importance. By definition, all maritime and the excess leachate produced could contaminate with farmers, communities, and national research to climate change would place added pressure on forest infrastructure (which includes: ports, jetties, access groundwater and freshwater resources. institutions; promoting inclusive access to hazard maps areas. roads, navigational markers and beacons, warehousing and climate information; promoting climate-smart Among the short-term measures in the NAP, Fiji agriculture (CSA); increasing the adoption of sustainable The LEDS aims to support adaptation benefits etc.) sit at or very close to sea level, and will be the first proposes to develop and implement a comprehensive soil and land management techniques; improving which align with NAP objectives for the restoration, and most affected by rising seas, king tides, and storm waste management plan (also proposed as part of this water management systems and supporting integrated enhancement, and conservation of coastal ecosystems, surges. Vessels themselves are also highly exposed watershed management planning; and strengthening such as mangroves and seagrasses, in order to resilience by diversification of agricultural produce.250 safeguard inshore fisheries resources amongst other 247Government of Fiji. (2017c). Climate Vulnerability Assessment. 248Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 249Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 251Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 250Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 188 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 189 benefits. The NAP also supports efforts to protect, maintain, and restore degraded habitats, particularly the restoration of critical riparian and coastal zones, as a measure to protect coastlines from extreme weather impacts. The NAP proposes enhanced assessment of coastline health. More broadly affecting coastal and inland forests alike, the NAP also calls for identifying and mapping “climate vulnerable” species of flora and fauna, creating a national plan and monitoring system to support climate vulnerable species, and integrated natural and environmental capital in national accounting. The Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources is working to incorporate a coastal vulnerability layer to overlay the mangroves layer of its GIS to assist in identifying locations for mangrove replanting, when applications are received from corporate bodies as part of their corporate social responsibility initiatives. This is a good example of public-private partnerships in the context of climate change adaptation.

5.5.6 Cross-Cutting Sectors: Tourism While this LEDS addresses tourism as an important cross-cutting issue (separate from IPCC-defined sectors), the NAP considers tourism indirectly. Tourism is of particular concern as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, estimated to comprise approximately 40% of Fiji’s GDP and employment when measured directly and indirectly. Figure 84. Percentage share of tourism in Fiji’s economy, in terms of GDP (left) and employment (right).252 6 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS Tourism supports and provides livelihoods as well as having a vital role in supporting the national balance of payments. It is estimated that climate change impacts could decrease Fiji’s tourism revenues by 18% by the year 2030.253 Mitigation measures considered in this LEDS for tourism will need to align with efforts identified in the NAP Framework and the NAP to minimise or eliminate climate risks. For example, strengthening conservation measures (such as mangroves) in tourist areas can promote sustainable tourism and more climate resilient coastlines. 252Government of Fiji. (2017c). Climate Vulnerability Assessment; and World Tourism Council. (2017). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017 Fiji. 253Government of Fiji. (2018a). National Adaptation Plan. 190 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 191 6 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND “There are Association (FHTA), the Fiji Commerce and Employers Federation (FCEF), the Fiji National Training and (e.g., relocation of facilities to safer areas, more resilient buildings, and infrastructure); and are highly dependent ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS opportunities Productivity Centre (FNTPC), regional and international organisations, public servants, and others. The present on good environmental quality (e.g., eco-tourism). There are nearly 72,000 people in Fiji (Table 52 below), This chapter provides an overview of priority cross-cutting social development and for more green summary should be considered as a first step which can about a third of total current formal employment base, environmental issues associated with the LEDS. Each subsection will address how jobs across be improved as more data become available, providing who work in environmentally important-sectors in the an indicative baseline of green jobs at present and a first proposed actions in each of the LEDS sectors and subsectors may have economic, Fiji’s economy, projection of future green employment aligned with the formal economy within organisations that provide green social, and environmental co-benefits, and any additional safeguards that may be jobs or services. Many of these cannot be classified as needed to ensure social and environmental goals are well maintained. including in LEDS for a low carbon, resilient future for Fiji. green jobs, such as energy sector jobs in petroleum energy, transport, 6.1.3 Green Jobs Baseline for Fiji fuel consumption. The percentage in environmentally

6.1 GREEN JOBS AND EMPLOYMENT tourism, forestry, important sectors would also be much higher if self- Sectors and activities in Fiji with strong links to the employed and subsistence workers were included. Of

6.1.1 Introduction water supply, and environment include those which: make direct use 92,187 people so classified in 2017, more than 80,000 The International Labour Organisation describes green jobs as: waste management” of natural resources (e.g., farming, fishing, forestry, (87%) were employed in agriculture, fisheries, or renewable energy, water supply); support improved forestry, of whom nearly 57,000 were crop farmers. decent jobs that produce goods, provide services or make production processes environmental management (e.g., pollution reduction, more energy and resource efficient and less polluting. Green jobs exist and can be Table 52 provides the baseline estimate of current better management of wastes, recycling, more efficient created in traditional sectors, such as manufacturing and construction or in new green jobs for a limited range of sectors and core use of energy or natural resources); have a significantly sectors, such as renewable energy and energy efficiency. Green jobs help to: i) improve environmental work, consistent with this LEDS. About lower environmental impact than other options (e.g., energy and material efficiency; ii) limit greenhouse gas emissions iii) minimise 20% of the jobs are cross-cutting environment or climate mass transit, electric vehicles, sailing boats); help waste and pollution; iv) protect and restore ecosystems; and v) enable enterprises change focussed positions. The table suggests that mitigate the effects of natural environmental risks (e.g., and communities to adapt to the effects of climate change. [They are] more about 4.5% of formal sector (salary and wage) jobs in Fiji cyclones and floods) or help adapt to climate change environmentally sustainable than the conventional alternative and also offer working are green in 2018, with nearly a quarter each in tourism conditions that meet expected standards of decent work.254 This chapter estimates core green jobs in Fiji meeting ILO criteria, plus those in and the water sector, and about 10% each in sustainable energy and core cross-sectoral environmental work. These sectors with current green employment and future potential consistent with LEDS green job totals are probably underestimated, and there was insufficient information to estimate gender division of priorities, with a focus on energy, tourism (a major and growing employer), forestry, these jobs. water supply, and waste management and recycling. There are additional opportunities Table 52. Preliminary Baseline Estimate of Green Formal Jobs in Fiji in Key Sectors (2018). throughout the economy for green jobs creation including: agriculture, transport, the knowledge industry (ICT), and construction, relocation, and related activities for Industry or Sector Jobs Percent Comment adaptation to increased natural disasters (such as flooding) related to climate change. Agriculture and agro-based products 1,068 12% May be considerably underestimated However, not all opportunities in these areas were assessed due to limited data. Forestry (Government staff only) 183 2% Underestimate; no private sector data yet This chapter summarises a baseline green jobs assessment, indicative of future green Fisheries (Government staff only) 282 3% Commercial fisheries generally not green jobs for a deep decarbonisation scenario, and policy recommendations for green jobs Energy 884 10% Mostly sustainable electricity that contribute to development and mitigation of, and adaptation to, environmental Water Supply & Treatment 2,114 24% State-owned enterprises only degradation and climate change. Waste and Recycling 118 1% Mostly private companies

6.1.2 Methodology Tourism (excluding food services) 2,140 24% Resorts/hotels and tour services Non-profits, regional & international 817 9% Includes universities To the extent that data allow, the analysis conducted follows the methodology of Other Core government staff 90 1% Climate Change Division & Dept of Environment Assessing Green Jobs Potential in Developing Countries: A Practitioner’s Guide.255 Current green employment in selected sectors was estimated through survey Misc. sustainability training, consulting 71 1% Green consultants questionnaires. The survey was supplemented by information from reports and Unallocated 1,030 12% Not clearly attributable to one sector websites, and interviews with about 100 individuals and sector-specific organisations Total 8,797 100% such as the Sustainable Energy Industry Association of the Pacific Islands (SEIAPI), several Fiji-based renewable energy companies, the Sustainable Tourism Programme Total formal sector paid employment 196,800 of the South Pacific Tourism Organisation (SPTO), the Fiji Hotel and Tourism Green jobs as percentage of total 4.5% Note: Covers only paid employment (full-time equivalent), informal wage or salaried jobs. Rounded off to nearest percent. 254ILO. (2011). Assessing Green Jobs Potential in Developing Countries: A Practitioner’s Guide. 255The accuracy of current estimates has been affected by data timeliness, limited sectoral disaggregation of employment data, incomplete knowledge of the informal sector, and, for many jobs, insufficient data to determine compliance with ILO criteria for decent work. 192 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 193

6.1.4 Future Green Jobs in Fiji under LEDS Deep Commercial agriculture. With a greener approach, net more accurate projections of job creation for BAU “In the long- Decarbonisation Pathways commercial agricultural employment (excluding sugar versus green investment. term, green This section discusses future green employment in Fiji in 2030 and beyond. cane) could either increase or decrease depending • To foster green employment the Fijian Government whether the green emphasis is on conservation will support mechanisms for building skills and employment Considering that about 60% of Fiji’s GHG emissions are from the energy sector, agriculture (less employment for same output) or accessing information, markets, and finance. This will be building a greener economy will create more net new jobs than continuing Fiji’s organic (more employment).257 Commercial agriculture, includes development of ICT services for all sectors current petroleum-intensive development for electricity (nearly 50% petroleum- if largely organic,258 could probably produce more than considerably fuelled) and transport (virtually 100%), as well as in construction, tourism, and 10% higher employment for the same yield, at lower which has potential, in itself, to reduce emissions, and also include sustainable resource management higher than commercial agriculture. For Fiji, green investment is expected to create more overall overall costs. Sugar employment259 is likely to continue and use and adaption to climate change (such as employment than a BAU scenario in the electricity sector, transport, tourism, water to decline, even as production increases. petroleum- supply and waste management, forestry, and construction. This anticipates a decline choice of climate-resilient crops). fuelled in petroleum services, and possibly a decline in agriculture. Forestry. Paid employment in forestry is expected to increase due to afforestation and reforestation efforts • Data on informal work within various ministries investment” Electricity. The Very High Ambition scenario in section 4.1 calls for an unprecedented under the LEDS, as well as substantial employment for (e.g., iTaukei Affairs, Ministry of Women, Ministry of Agriculture, and Ministry of Rural and Maritime scale-up of investment in renewable energy. Local employment creation will peak wood plantations for electricity generation. Under the Development) will be gathered and assessed to better during periods of construction, with several hundred new temporary jobs. During VHA scenario, close to 3,000 new jobs (potentially green understand the informal economy and the constraints the many years of operation, nearly 1,000 permanent new green jobs are likely to be jobs) will be created by 2030 for growing and processing to, and opportunities for, green informal jobs. created by 2030, increasing to several thousand by 2050 (excluding employment for wood for electric power generation, increasing to over growing fuel feedstocks for biomass power). In the long-term, green employment 8,000 by 2050. • The Fijian Government will work with the FCEF and will be considerably higher than petroleum-fuelled investment. Changes in the other employee associations and unions to: survey structure of the energy sector – through investments in electricity generation, 6.1.5 Measures and Policies for Green its members to determine their understanding of efficiency of energy use, transport, and construction – will affect other sectors, such as and attitudes to green employment; assess risks to Jobs transport, and create new green employment, both direct and indirect (e.g., in design, members if they fail to green their businesses; and A number of measures and policies to assist in assess opportunities for green employment and the construction, and refitting). monitoring, promoting, and creating green jobs are benefits for members. This will assist the private Transport. Very little employment in Fiji’s transport sector is green today. Converting proposed with this LEDS. These include: sector, including employers as well as employees, to much of Fiji’s land transport to electricity, and sea transport to electricity with some wind, would create considerable green employment (to the extent that the electricity • Develop a detailed Fiji Green Jobs study. When prepare for the transition to a low carbon economy, completed, this should be considered a preliminary while supporting an inclusive, consultative approach is renewable, and that motor vehicles, marine vessels, and aircraft use low and zero effort to be updated and revised by 2020, with more to the transition. emission technologies). There will also be new green employment in maintenance, inputs from economic models and new data. but much of this job growth will be offset by losses of maintenance jobs for petroleum- fuelled vehicles. • To improve the accuracy of estimates and more 6.2 GENDER AND EQUITY standard green job classifications, the FBoS to The first decisions related to gender, equality, and Tourism. Tourism is a key driver of the economy contributing 59,000 direct jobs in 2017 participation of women under the UNFCCC were taken provide more disaggregation of employment and with growth expected to average 2.8% through 2027256 and beyond. Green tourism is in 2001. Since then there have been gradual discussions GDP by sector and gender in forthcoming reports, expected to grow more rapidly than conventional tourism with a concomitant growth in on gender, equity, and climate change under the if practical consistent with the UN guidelines of greener employment. This is likely to be a considerable number. Tourism also provides UNFCCC, culminating with the adoption of the Gender Systems of Environmental and Economic Accounts an important market for woman-owned micro and small enterprises, such as those Action Plan under the Guidance of the Fijian Presidency (SEEA) 2012.260 producing flowers, crafts, artisanal food products, jewellery, and cosmetics. of COP during COP23 in 2017. The Gender Action Plan Water and waste management. This sector accounted for about 3,000 jobs in 2017, • The Fijian Government will update its most recent for the Paris Agreement highlights how climate change Input-Output Table with multipliers (particularly impacts women and women’s roles in bringing about of which well over half are green jobs, mostly at the Water Authority of Fiji. Green employment) disaggregated into BAU and green change. It aims to increase the participation of women employment in waste management and recycling will increase under a Very High components (the latter, at least, for sectors with in all UNFCCC processes and to increase awareness Ambition LEDS scenario, but the absolute numbers are expected to be small. significant environment-related employment) to allow of and support for the development and effective Construction. Construction accounted for 19,000 jobs in 2017. With roughly 59,000 homes in flood-prone coastal areas requiring relocation or climate resilient reconstruction, there is considerable scope for new employment for homes which are 257Conservation agriculture uses minimum mechanical soil disturbance (low tillage), permanent soil cover and diversification of crops (in sequence or in more resistant to natural disasters and more energy efficient. As energy standards (to association) reducing farm employment. Organic agriculture avoids genetically modified organisms, synthetic pesticides, veterinary drugs, additives and be incorporated into a new building code) are implemented, there will be a growing mineral fertilisers, improving soil quality and biodiversity, reducing nutrient leaching, requiring less energy (reducing GHG emissions) and usually raising demand for employment in efficient design (architects) and energy use (energy market prices. It may require more land and is labour-intensive, increasing employment. 258For the potential of organic agriculture, the most conservative data from Green Jobs for a Revitalized Food and Agriculture Sector (FAO, 2011) auditing, energy systems). suggesting 8-12% job increase by 2050 for same yield but better quality food. 259ILO data show Fiji agricultural employment declined steadily from 53% of total employment in 1991 to 39% in 2016. 260UN. (2014). System of Environmental-Economic Accounting 2012 Central Framework. United Nations New York. Available at: https://unstats.un.org/ 256World Tourism Council. (2017). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017 Fiji. unsd/envaccounting/seearev/seea_cf_final_en.pdf 194 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 195 implementation of gender-responsive climate policy concerns and perspectives in policies and programmes sustainable use of the country’s limited natural resources, and the utilization of gender at the regional, national, and local levels. The Gender for sustainable development by 2025. impact assessments, gender analysis and gender aware approaches in assessing “Collection Action Plan specifies five priority areas with detailed environmental issues and on the utilization, exploitation and preservation of natural goals to deliver by 2019: These international and national principles are espoused resources in Fiji through training and continuous monitoring.”262 of gender for the LEDS for its governance, policies, implementation • Capacity building, knowledge sharing, and measures, and monitoring and evaluation in order to On renewable energy, the policy emphasises the need to “Ensure and implement a disaggregated communication; maximise women’s potential as active agents of change policy of access to energy supplies to all persons in Fiji and to ensure that women in data will be • Gender balance, participation, and women’s and drivers of low carbon development. It should be communities are consulted in any energy projects, and recognizing that women in enhanced to noted that in most of the LEDS sectors, such as in rural communities have the most limited access to energy sources including access to leadership; electricity, transport, and waste, there is an imbalance renewable energy.” The National Gender Policy further notes that different types of 263 inform decisions • Coherence to strengthen the integration of gender in representation in the workforce with more men than energy sources have differential impacts on women. along the path to considerations within the work of UNFCCC bodies, the secretariat, and other United Nation entities and women. At the same time, there are skill shortages in some jobs in these sectors and new skills will be The LEDS can play a role in achieving SDG5 on gender equality, taking into a decarbonised stakeholders towards the consistent implementation needed. The LEDS provides an opportunity to involve consideration at all stages of its implementation, in particular SDG sub-outcomes 5.1, economy” 5.4, 5.5, 5a, 5b, and 5c.264 Collection of gender disaggregated data will be enhanced to of gender-related mandates and activities; women and youth in filling those gaps and planning for inform decisions along the path to a decarbonised economy. The LEDS also recognizes • Gender responsive implementation of the convention the future. the role of women as agents of change both in homes and larger society. Aspects and the Paris Agreement; and In order for women and youth to participate fully in the of the implementation of the LEDS that need to take into account equity in access, • Monitoring and reporting. transition to a low carbon economy, it will be essential participation, contribution, and potential benefits to/impacts on women, youth and that employers, trade unions, and government seek to vulnerable groups include: At the national level, Fiji has been making its own efforts actively end gender discrimination in the workplace and to fully integrate gender and equity issue into climate • Access to information about the transition to a decarbonised economy and about make such discrimination illegal. The establishment action. The NDP of Fiji (2017) indicates that achieving the sectors targeted for decarbonisation sector; of comprehensive antidiscrimination labour provisions gender equality in decision-making and income levels and flexibility in the workplace to encourage and • Participation in the formulation of low carbon policies, strategies, and plans; and eliminating violence against women, in accordance with international conventions, is crucial for sustainable promote women’s full participation would be a key • Participation in the development of standards and enforcement of those standards; step. Furthermore, there should be scholarships made development.261 The NCCP (2017) also highlights gender available to enable women to study in areas where • Involvement in consultations and decision-making at all levels; and equality as one of the fundamental approaches to women have been underrepresented historically, but • Equal access to low carbon electricity, water, and other infrastructure services; addressing climate change and adaptation planning. also where growth is predicted in the LEDS, such as As an initial step, Fiji plans to assess gender-related the electricity sector, renewables, energy efficiency, • Equal access to training opportunities, new green job opportunities, raising climate impacts with disaggregated data and adequate various transport areas, and forestry. There is also awareness of new job opportunities; parameters. Ensuring that a gender- and human an opportunity to address youth unemployment by • Awareness of new opportunities and equal access to leadership positions; rights-based approach is being implemented effectively encouraging students to study for skills that will be is also a key part of the NAP, and gender and equity needed in a low carbon economy, particularly technical • Involvement in data collection, analysis, and research; are addressed in the NAP Framework, and are being and vocational skills, again in the same sectors as • Equal access to finance, incentives, and tax cuts; and integrated into all stages of the NAP process, from planning to evaluation. Fiji has been approaching above. • Consultation as part of land-owning groups and equal access to compensation, gender concerns as a universal human right with the The National Gender Policy directly references climate where necessary, National Gender Policy adopted in 2014, and gender change in relation to agriculture, rural development, is mainstreamed throughout the 2014 Green Growth and environment, noting the need to “Promote increased Framework, which highlights that gender equality is regard for environmental sensitivity, climate change important in education and other aspects for sustainable impacts and disaster risks and the role of men and development and calls for integration of gender women at all levels in facilitating the harmonious and 261Government of Fiji. (2017a). 5-Year & 20-Year National Development Plan. 262Government of Fiji. (2014b). National Gender Policy. 263Government of Fiji. (2014b). National Gender Policy. 264https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/sustainabledevelopmentgoals 196 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 197

6.3 GREEN CITY DEVELOPMENT Employment generation in cities will be essential to Fiji has fragile island ecosystems, and the biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services Urbanisation in Fiji is taking place at a rapid rate and, sustain economic growth in urban areas. To this extent, have always been one of the important foundations for Fijian life, culture, and economy. “Efforts to protect as urbanisation takes place, an increasing number Most of Fiji’s biodiversity is unique to Fiji. More than 50% of Fiji’s birds and plants, all as per the latest census figures, 55% of the country’s of people can be employed to fill the gap needed in 24 palms, 72 out of the 76 species of psychotria, frogs, and over 90% of some insect ecosystems and population of 884,887 is urban.265 This trend is attributed to the extension of urban boundaries for some of the terms of providing services. Goals under the NDP groups are all endemic.267 Fiji has more than 332 islands with 18,272 km2 of land area, biodiversity, will larger cities as well as internal movements from rural include: strengthening the urban management and surrounded by over 10,000 km2 of reefs containing various habitats including: estuaries, be integrated in administration of town planning at municipal level, mangroves, sea grass beds, macroalgal assemblages, and sand and mudflats which to urban areas. Fiji is now an Upper Middle-Income strengthening long-term planning for identification of support the biodiversity of the region. This biodiversity has not yet been fully explored implementation Country and is expected to be 56% urban by 2021, with most major urban populations on the island of Viti Levu. growth centres and their development into vibrant urban and its economic (and natural capital) value is not yet well understood. of this LEDS” As these urban centres grow, there is an added stress centres, creating an environment that fosters resource However, Fiji’s biodiversity and ecosystems have been experiencing direct and on access to urban services such as water, electricity, efficiency and effective management practices by indirect pressure from different sectors. Even though Fiji’s rich biodiversity makes a waste management, and transportation, and ensuring individual households and corporate bodies within urban significant contribution to the GDP and foreign exchange, and has direct contribution climate resilient cities. A significant portion of the centres, and preparing vulnerability assessments which to the daily income of numerous households through agriculture and aquaculture population resides in informal settlements and also consider projected risks of climate change and natural activities and tourism, its biodiversity has experienced threats by recent economic needs access to basic urban services, thus, future urban hazards to infrastructure and urban planning. development of the urban and peri-urban areas, and tourism and other development, plans will need to incorporate informal settlements as Although the LEDS exercise has been conducted at the all utilizing or removing significant natural resources. Increased agriculture and well. The national Green Growth Framework states that national level, a key next step will be mainstreaming aquaculture activities have exploited natural areas, while intensive urbanisation and approximately 78,000 people are currently living in 128 the LEDS at the town and city level, through town and industrialisation are causing pollution. Developments in the tourism sector that do not squatter settlements in Fiji’s major urban areas. city councils and associated institutions. Through follow environmental safeguards can be a serious threat to Fiji’s ecosystems and the Since Fiji is prone to natural disasters, with maximum appropriate consultations, there will be opportunities damage is often concentrated around the coastal, coral-reef ecosystem. impact projected to be in the urban areas, any urban to conduct smaller-scale exercises of GHG emissions The government has recognized the importance and value of biodiversity and Fiji’s planning and development needs to also focus on accounting at the city and town level to further inform unique ecosystems and has identified and established key areas to protect The climate resilience to minimise the adverse impacts actions at the local level and empower town and city country’s natural resources. A number of adopted measures directly complement of natural disasters in the future. The Green Growth councils to make their own low carbon plans, based on and advance the objectives of this LEDS. Many government efforts have been aligned Framework identifies the need to ensure that the sound data. These assessments will be done first for with global efforts to protect biodiversity under the Convention on Biological Diversity. building codes are revised so that, going forward, each of the larger cities and will also assist in narrowing The Endangered and Protected Species Act of 2002 established various protection buildings are cyclone resilient and also use energy and the focus on high emitting components in urban programs in both territorial and marine ecosystem. The government also established water more efficiently. Further to this, town plans and environments, such as buildings and specific localised the Environment Management Act in 2005 requiring EIAs prior to any development zone plans need to enforce zoning and buffer zones for industries, which will further assist urban low carbon planning. coastal areas and develop improved waste collection planning. As discussed in section 4.7 above, the government has proposed to protect six and management systems as outlined in section 4.7. As has been identified in the NDP, new towns have 6.4 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION times the area of mangroves removed for tourism development with replanting. This, and related efforts to protect ecosystems and biodiversity, will be integrated in been identified for development both on Viti Levu and As an island nation, the manner in which Fiji’s natural implementation of this LEDS, and further enhanced so that the decarbonisation of Vanua Levu, two of the larger islands in Fiji. Since resources and biodiversity are managed will have the economy and biodiversity conservation plans remain well aligned and are some of these new towns are still rural in nature, implications on future economic prospects of the mutually reinforcing. the LEDS provides an opportunity to skip business as tourism and resource-based industries, the potential usual development, avoid high emission producing for developing renewable sources of energy, as well as infrastructure and opt for low carbon buildings and the resilience and the capacity of communities to deal transport infrastructure for cities, including increase with climate change and disasters, health, and quality urban walkability and facilitation of non-motorised of life.266 For this reason, it is important that, as the modes of transport. In addition, the Fiji government LEDS is undertaken, actions to safeguard biodiversity will look at opportunities to weave in technology with are implemented whenever needed so that a low carbon expansion to achieve sustainable, resilient urbanisation. transition does not come at the expense of Fiji’s unique ecosystems. 265Fiji Bureau of Statistics. (2017). Key Statistics – National Income, GDP by Industry, December 2017. 267https://www.cbd.int/countries/profile/default.shtml?country=fj 266Government of Fiji. (2014a). A Green Growth Framework for Fiji. 198 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 199 7 EDUCATION, their jobs need to change? Do they have the right skills to implement the LEDS? What new skills are needed CAPACITY BUILDING, and how can we acquire them? What is our timeline for making the needed changes and what are the resources AND AWARENESS required? These are not simple questions and many of the answers need to be discussed cross-sectorally RAISING and vertically, from local to national levels. Institutions will need to work together to implement the solutions identified to respond to the needs of the public, the

7.1 INTRODUCTION private sector, and government in terms of education, The transition to a low carbon economy will require capacity building, and awareness raising. far-reaching changes, not only in technology but also in All levels of education in Fiji, from primary school day-to-day decision-making, behaviour, knowledge, and to tertiary, and vocational education to continued skillsets. In order to adjust, embrace, integrate, adapt professional development, will need to be engaged to, and ultimately benefit from the low carbon transition, to deliver long-term educational and skills change. awareness raising, capacity building, and education This will require substantial revision of many existing measures across the whole economy and embracing all curricula through the appropriate Education Standards parts of the population will be essential. There is also a and Qualification Boards and training for current and significant opportunity for Fiji to equip future generations future educators and education professionals. For with the skills for a green, low carbon economy and capacity building and awareness raising activities, initial develop services and products which can be exported external human resources will likely be needed, but overseas. With 545,618 people (61.7% of total population) as the skill sets and knowledge increasingly become aged below 34, Fiji is a young nation.268 An investment available in Fiji, these activities should increasingly be 7 EDUCATION, CAPACITY in education and skill development with an increasing delivered locally by academic institutions, local NGOs, working age population, will provide a pool of human national and local government and private sector resources which is essential for Fiji’s low carbon associations, among others. development. The Fijian Government is committed to making the necessary investment from public resources, This section summarises some key needs already BUILDING, AND while encouraging the private sector to also develop identified overall, as well as by specific LEDS sector capacity for green, low carbon growth. Without this (although coverage is not exhaustive). Relevant actions investment from both the public and private sector, the from the NDP and NDC Implementation Roadmap are AWARENESS RAISING changes needed in mindsets and skillsets will be hard to included, as well as new actions specific to the LEDS achieve. sector identified through the consultation process and analysis of needs for implementation of the LEDS. Education, capacity building, and awareness raising measures are not described in detail in the LEDS. 7.2 CAPACITY BUILDING AND An overview is provided, but the next step will be for AWARENESS RAISING government and non-government actors in each sector to review their strategies and ensure they include The NCCP 2018 emphasises the importance of capacity the actions needed to meet the needs of an economy building, technology transfer, and knowledge sharing transitioning to low carbon, using the LEDS as a guide. as central enablers for Fiji’s adaptation and mitigation Both government and non-government entities need to needs and commitments. It also emphasises that address and answer questions such as: Are we ourselves increasing government interactions with academia and prepared for this change? Are our staff and stakeholders global research networks will increase access to cutting- aware of the LEDS? How will they be affected as LEDS edge innovation, technology transfer, and capacity is implemented? How will their jobs change and how do building. An essential initial prerequisite for capacity building is to clearly identify and quantify current skill 268Fiji Bureau of Statistics. (2018a). 2017 Population and Housing, Release 1. 200 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 201 deficiencies, and prioritise those requiring significant improvement. Building capacity • Integrated Learning. The government will work to • O&M of rooftop solar systems. Skilled and highly- “Changes to will be the next step towards normalising and facilitating the changes to behaviour introduce systems of knowledge management, which skilled domestic labour to design, install, and provide that are required to facilitate a transition to a decarbonised, resilient economy. traverse traditional sectors and improve consistency. maintenance services will be developed for the solar behaviour are An important element of the challenge will be retaining in Fiji the trained staff in Partnerships between the public, private, and PV rooftop and solar water heating sectors. required to the targeted institutions and sectors. Incentives will need to be put in place to academic sectors will be key to building awareness • Biomass Energy Development. There will be large- facilitate a achieve this. across stakeholder groups and enabling coordinated scale support for specific domestic production action. transition to a Cross-Cutting Actions (production and processing) of sustainable biomass, • Capacity Building in the Private Sector. This will including resource surveys and optimisation of the decarbonised, • Assessment of Skills Needed. Although there is awareness of deficiencies in the be key to ensure that low carbon development use of sustainable biomass residues, processing resilient skills needed for a low carbon development path for Fiji, a more comprehensive becomes a core part of Fiji’s business as usual. techniques, logistics planning, and training of skilled assessment is needed to clearly identify gaps, quantify needs, ascertain priority economy” areas that need addressing now, and develop a broad timetable for skills The private sector must be engaged to support long-term capacity building and the development labour. improvements consistent with the LEDS. Government will work closely with • Energy Management. Training for key stakeholders of new businesses and services relevant to the (owners and service providers) on energy auditing, stakeholders on this high-priority need. implementation of the LEDS. application of energy standards within building • Assessment of Training and Staffing Needs. Staffing, capacity building, and • Knowledge Management. CCICD will support codes, and the implementation and operation of training requirements for low carbon development need to be determined at climate change knowledge management through the energy management plans. There will be training the national level and sub-national levels. This should start with the CCICD and development and maintenance of communications for institutions in coordinating and enforcing energy the Steering Committee, as both have important roles to play in driving LEDS strategies, data repositories and functions, and management standards. implementation. Specific actions will be required to strengthen core stakeholders, products designed to raise awareness within build momentum, and provide a foundation for subsequent actions by the broader • Renewable energy Resources. There will be capacity government, the private sector, and the general building support for comprehensive renewable set of stakeholders. public of key climate change issues. energy resource assessments. • Technical Assistance for the CCICD. Technical assistance is proposed to support • National Advocacy and Awareness: CCICD will work CCICD’s roles and responsibilities as Secretariat for the LEDS and other climate with government ministries to support national Land and Maritime Transport change policies and processes. The staff of all sections of the Ministry of Economy climate advocacy and awareness raising campaigns • Electric and hybrid Vehicles. Capacity building will are the “core” key stakeholders to champion change and will need capacity building to support public awareness and increase the be developed for key government ministries and to effectively carry out this function of promulgating LEDS through everyday visibility of key issues within the LEDS. agencies regarding EVs, HEVs, and their batteries, functions and the national budgeting process. This may also require training standards, and maintenance to inform policy on technical aspects of sub-sector activities and, also, training in facilitation, Electricity Generation changes. Buses companies, scrappage facilities, and coordination, and change management. • Energy Efficiency Public Awareness. A nationwide others will be trained in maintenance, management, • MRV and Data Collection. Training on the design and implementation of a robust public awareness programme will be developed and disposal of electric and hybrid vehicles, including and transparent bottom-up MRV system, including: the review of existing data to increase awareness about the existence and replacement and disposal of batteries. and reporting, assessments of data needs, institutional arrangements, data the benefits of energy efficient building design, • Vehicle Imports. Training will be provided to key management systems, standards and procedures for MRV, and evaluation appliances, and savings. stakeholders (i.e., institutions in charge of border mechanism. This would include capacity building across all sectors to strengthen • Energy Efficiency Training. Training will be provided control of vehicles, FRCS, car and truck dealers, and bottom-up data gathering. In many cases, investment and capacity building will to key stakeholders (i.e., institutions in charge of staff of coordinating entity) for enforcement of vehicle be required to improve the ability of stakeholders to produce, collate, and assess boarder control of appliances FRCS, dealers of standards. new types of data. This may include multi-agency activities for data gathering, appliances, staff of coordinating entities, architects, processing, and reporting and include mandatory data through a command • Public Awareness on Low Emission Transport. builders, and building inspectors) for implementation and control mechanism. MRV and data initiatives should capitalise on existing A country-wide awareness and dissemination of energy efficient appliance standards and minimum institutions and technical architecture for knowledge management. campaign, which is non-discriminatory and gender energy performance standards for buildings. inclusive, will be prepared and implemented • Decentralised Capacity Building. The Fijian Government will need to review • O&M of Renewable Energy Systems. Skilled and country wide to inform vehicle owners, operators, existing government institutional mechanisms and develop integrated community highly-skilled domestic labour will be further associations, dealers, and other relevant capacity building programmes at the grassroots level, in close collaboration with developed and sustained to operate and maintain stakeholders (e.g., banks) about the mitigation NGOs and other partners. Capacity building and awareness programmes will various renewable energy power plants in Fiji (e.g., actions for a more energy efficient transport sector continue at the community level supporting resource owners on the importance biomass, solar PV, wind, geothermal, biogas, and and incentive schemes. There will be awareness of proper environmental stewardship as part of low carbon development. Effective energy storage). raising programmes (e.g., adverts, campaigns) for mechanisms are needed to ensure that knowledge is decentralised and distributed drivers and vehicle owners about eco-friendly driving to key users and to ensure that local and sub-national actors can collect, and input, and economic and environmental impacts. data required to support localised actions. 202 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 203 • Marine Transport. A programme will be developed and implemented for Waste Sector Cross-Cutting “Capacity boat building and boat maintenance capacity as many new ship designs and • Waste Management Awareness. There will be • Education for a low carbon transition. Quality building and technologies (e.g., Flettner rotors) can be built and installed in Fiji. There will be investment and human capacity development, including Fiji National University awareness raising campaigns at national and education for all is essential to create a more skilled sub-national levels about the benefits and costs and adaptable workforce and create a knowledge- training will (FNU) (e.g., engineering) and Fiji Maritime Authority (FMA) (e.g., seafarers). associated with proper waste management and based society. All Fijians will be empowered with be provided • Capacity Building for Marine Transport. There will be improved data collection, awareness efforts to reach every household about the education and skill sets so that they may be easily for mangrove capacity building, education, and training for maritime transport across all 3Rs (reduce, reuse, and recycle waste) in rural and absorbed into the workforce. Government will work stakeholders in the public and private sectors. There will also be awareness urban areas. closely with industry, tertiary education institutions, and seagrass campaigns for owners, operators, associations, and other relevant stakeholders and development partners to prepare a workforce Tourism and Commerce monitoring, (e.g., shipping companies, associations, and banks) for marine transport and of highly skilled Fijians in line with future demand • Support for low carbon Tourism. There will be and for carbon climate change. capacity building initiatives for micro, small, and under the LEDS sectors. Education systems should produce a national workforce with the required sequestration AFOLU medium scale tourism businesses for implementing skills to support long-term low carbon transition. measurements” • Sugar. Training and technical assistance will be provided for increasing sugarcane the LEDS through beach and reef protection, Government and the private sector will work together yield per hectare and harvesting and transport logistics. renewable energy, improved waste and water to provide professional development and re-training management, and energy efficiency. • Fuel wood processing. There will be training for wood-cutters for reduced-impact opportunities for those employed in sectors where felling techniques and training of wood cutters, machine operators, and logging • Support for Youth and Women. There will be support skills needs will change significantly as technology women’s and youth community-based capacity changes (e.g., car mechanics moving from working planners in resource-saving reduced impact logging (felling and skidding) with building programmes on green entrepreneurship with combustion engines to electric motors with provision of advanced skidding equipment. development and skills-based training relevant to the battery storage). • Livestock Productivity. Training and financial support will be provided for improving livestock productivity through embryo transfer. LEDS sectors. • Digitization and teacher training. Investments will • Energy Management for Businesses. An awareness be undertaken to improve existing and new education • Fertiliser Use. There will be training of farmers in the proper application of and information campaign will be designed and facilities, purchase new equipment and materials, synthetic and organic fertilisers (type of fertiliser; quantity and time of application). embrace digital learning, and train teachers in low implemented targeting business community and • Farming Practices. There will be provision of further capacity building and government stakeholders on energy management carbon development. awareness of harmful farming practices and awareness and advocacy of organic requirements (e.g., energy standards for new • Women’s access to education. Women will have farming. buildings) and opportunities for businesses (including equal access to employment, remuneration, and • Land Management. There will be a review of administrative processes, digitization hotels and resorts) and public institutions. leadership opportunities from implementation of the of land records, and capacity building to improve the efficiency and effectiveness • Educating Tourists. There will be actions to LEDS. of land-use administration. There will also be capacity building to develop the Fiji improve awareness and educate tourists about • Technical and Vocational Training. The government Geospatial Information System, National Land Bank, and National Land Register. more responsible and sustainable environmental will strengthen and improve the quality of the • Environmental Management Act. Capacity building will improve administration of behaviour, prior to embarking on nature visits. technical and vocational education and training the Environment Management Act (EMA) 2004, particularly EIAs. (TVET) system, as relevant to the LEDS sectors,

7.3 EDUCATION and by developing a curriculum aligned with the • Ecosystem Protection. Further capacity building will be provided to communities As stated in the NCCP (2018), the Government of Fiji needs of a low carbon economy labour market. for protection and/or restoration of nearby ecosystems, and protection of Part of this will be to facilitate school-to-work has a continuing commitment to building a strong and biodiversity, in consultation with landowners (through conservation agreements, transitions for Fiji’s youth by fostering stronger dynamic education system. Education plays a key role education, monitoring, etc.). There will be localised capacity building, awareness, links between education/training institutions and in building awareness and setting the foundation for and behaviour change initiatives to reach small-holder farmers. workplaces and encouraging work placements, paid important skill sets and expertise that can be reinvested Blue Carbon into society. Fiji’s education system must deliver the internships, and apprenticeships in the LEDS sectors. tools required for an intergenerational response to A comprehensive and accredited national TVET • Improving Monitoring. Capacity building and training will be provided for mangrove programme is recommended to create sustainable climate change. It will take considerable time to develop and seagrass monitoring, and for carbon sequestration measurements. and establish the curricula and train the educators, and green jobs among Fiji’s youth for renewable energy, • Mangrove Replanting. There will be capacity building and training for even longer to benefit the workforce. Therefore, it is energy efficiency, disaster risk reduction, and climate establishment of mangrove nurseries, re-planting mangroves, and improving crucial to start immediately on actions to transition the change adaptation. survival of replanted mangroves. education sector to better support low carbon growth. • Wetlands Awareness. There will be actions to increase awareness among indigenous communities and commercial and industrial sectors about wetlands and blue carbon economic value and other co-benefits. 204 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 205 • Scholarships. Postgraduate training scholarships in Domestic Aviation green jobs and green investment analysis will assist • Skills for new standards. Training and education for the government to choose investment options that aviation professionals (e.g., aircraft engineers, pilots, maximise green jobs while reducing other job losses. and air traffic controllers) will be strengthened to meet ICAO standards. This will include training on Energy the LEDS actions for domestic aviation. • Technical Skills. To meet the human resource needs of the future electricity sector, the government will Tourism support education for civil, electrical, mechanical, • Training. Tourism training providers and TVET and hydrological engineers and other required skill providers with tourism courses will be encouraged to needs of the sector, including for renewable energy integrate awareness of the LEDS into their training technologies introduced or scaled-up under the on tourism, with particular attention to energy and LEDS, and for energy efficiency improvements in the water use and solid and waste-water management building sector and industry. Land and Maritime Transport • Technical Skills. To meet future human resource needs of the transport sector, government will support education for civil, electrical, and mechanical engineers and other required skill needs of the sector, including for new vehicle and vessel technologies introduced or scaled up under the LEDS. Next generation land and maritime transport 8 GOVERNANCE “upskilling” training programs will be developed with higher education institutions and TVET providers (mechanics, ship builders, fabricators, sailors, etc.) • Sustainable Transport. Education and awareness- AND M O NITO RING raising about sustainable transport will be introduced to school and university curricula. • Practical Skills Development. Training and education for both public and private sector actors will be provided, including both practical elements for seafarers at all levels of service but, AND EVALUATION just as importantly, for all related, secondary, and tertiary industries, including marine engineering and maintenance, planning, and policy, senior management, shore side industry, financing, and insurance. • Regional hub for maritime training. For the maritime sector, supporting an integrated regional education and research strategy targeting all sectors (planning, policy, management, operations, secondary support industries) is a step to developing and retaining in-country and in-region long-term capacity development across the maritime sector. This places Fiji at the heart of a future sustainable maritime transport sector in the Pacific. 206 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 207 • Use influence and authority to assist the cross-cutting policies, frameworks, and “The LEDS will serve 8 GOVERNANCE AND MONITORING plans to achieve their aims and objectives; and “A key role of the as the overarching AND EVALUATION • Review and provide comments on climate change policies and plans. Steering Committee reference document For purposes of this LEDS, it is recommended that the terms of reference of the will be to advise on across all ministries, 8.1 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND GOVERNANCE FOR NCCCC are reviewed and updated to include greater clarity on the NCCCC’s review of the necessity to IMPLEMENTING FIJI’S LEDS NDCs and LEDSs every five years. With these changes to its TOR, the NCCCC would be guiding them the appropriate high-level oversight body for the LEDS. The NCCCC would then be able update the LEDS” The institutional arrangements and governance for implementing the LEDS flow from towards emissions the Fiji NCCP 2018, are aligned with those for other national climate change-related to oversee coordination of LEDS implementation, oversee monitoring of progress of implementation, and ensure action is taken to update the LEDS when needed. reductions in their strategies, such as the NAP, and are guided by the same principles: particular sectors” • Alignment with national development plans and national climate change policies; 8.1.2 Cabinet Committee on Climate and Disaster Risk • Enhanced collaboration and inter-government coordination; As outlined in the NCCP, the LEDS (and other climate related plan implementation) would benefit from the formation of a cabinet select committee on climate and • Evidence-based decision-making; disaster risk based on the intra-government considerations involved with national • An integrated approach to resilient development in recognition of the various risk management, low carbon, and resilient development. Ministerial oversight in this interactions and co-benefits involved with increased alignment and connectivity instance would provide the following benefits: between policies, plans, sectors, and ministries; and • Improved high-level oversight of cross-cutting issues that require greater inter- • Promotion of policy innovations that help to cross-cut development objectives ministerial collaboration; through the increased involvement and engagement of the private sector. • A high-level decision-making body for advancing legislation required to anchor This section describes the overall governance arrangements for Fiji’s LEDS; rather Fiji’s climate change policy in national law; than specific implementing entities, as all ministries, agencies, non-state and private sector actors, and individuals will be responsible for implementing the LEDS. • Oversight to support an integrated approach to national risk in support of the NDP process; Furthermore, the implementation of the LEDS will be mainstreamed through a variety of sector specific policies, strategies, and plans at national, provincial, and local level. • The provision of a high-level ‘action-oriented’ committee that can respond The LEDS will serve as the overarching reference document across all ministries, effectively to issues raised by the NCCCC that required cabinet endorsement; guiding them towards emissions reductions in their particular sectors. As and when • The ability to support the NCCCC with high-level input into adaptation and sector specific policies are reviewed and updated, the LEDS will similarly be used as mitigation prioritisation and investment processes; and a guidance document to align each sector to the objective of net zero emissions and mainstream LEDS strategies. The general and specific government bodies with the • Support for greater understanding of issues that require attention and oversight required to progress coordination and governance functions in service of the consideration on the national security agenda. LEDS follow from those in the NCCP and are described below.

8.1.3 The LEDS Steering Committee

8.1.1 The National Climate Change Coordination The LEDS Steering Committee, which was formed for the development of the LEDS Committee and is comprised of relevant sector leads, should be convened at least once every two years to consider the progress on the NDC and LEDS. For this purpose, the CCICD The National Climate Change Coordination Committee (NCCCC) is comprised should provide a progress report to the Steering Committee once a year. A key role of the Permanent Secretaries and nominated representatives from government of the Steering Committee will be to advise on the necessity to update the LEDS (see ministries, departments, and agencies. The NCCC functions on behalf of the Fijian below). Government to: • Ensure Ministerial and Department activities are aligned with relevant cross- 8.1.4 Review of the LEDS cutting policies and frameworks (such as the LEDS); In keeping with the current duration of the NDC, every four years the LEDS Steering • Ensure the creation, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of these Committee should review progress of the NDC and LEDS, considering relevant cross-cutting policies; technology, finance, and climate context changes, and guide the development of a revised NDC and/or LEDS if and when needed. The Steering Committee will call upon • Ensure the creation, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of relevant relevant technical experts to support committee meetings and will form technical sector plans; working groups as needed to inform decision-making. The LEDS process has created • Assess its own progress on integrating climate change issues into Ministerial and consultative groups involving government, non-government, private sector, and civil Department activities and report on that progress; society representatives which the Steering Committee can utilize in the future to both • Provide advice and assist with resolving strategic-level issues and risks; help inform the review of NDC and LEDS progress and to propose new actions to be considered as part of the NDC and LEDS revision process. 208 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 209

8.1.5 The Climate Change and the SDGs. CCICD is also responsible for MRV for the to establish a Private Sector Advisory Board, which will Key existing standards and recommendations for new International Cooperation NDC, which would feed into reporting on the LEDS. also support LEDS implementation, as outlined in the and improved standards are included in the relevant CCICD will recruit specific monitoring and evaluation NCCP. The Private Sector Advisory Board will provide chapters of the LEDS and are not listed here (e.g., Division, Ministry of Economy expertise as required to support this remit. CCICD a landing zone for key information arising from the review and update of Fiji’s National Building Codes, The CCICD plays a central coordinating role in support also plays an ongoing lead role in coordinating Fiji’s work of the NCCCC and create a space for developing ongoing enforcement and review of emissions standards of the NCCP and, therefore, also of coordinating engagement with the UNFCCC COP and will be and consulting on new private-public partnership, for vehicles, white goods, and electrical appliances, implementing the LEDS. There are seven key responsible for articulated national priorities at the business development, and investment and financing standards and codes of practice related to waste engagement areas associated with implementing the international level. opportunities in both mitigation and adaption. The Board management, etc.). EIAs and safeguard policies for land LEDS: will help to identify key issues relevant to investment and use planning have cross-cutting adaptation, disaster risk • Knowledge Management and Advisory Support: • Coordination of Climate Finance: CCICD acts CCICD supports climate change knowledge business planning and ensure that the private sector is reduction, and carbon mitigation implications and should as a conduit between donors, climate funds, updated in a timely fashion in relation to new initiatives, be assessed on an ongoing basis to ensure compliance management by developing communications and sector recipients of climate finance to help incentives, standards, regulations, and risks. It will also with the objectives of the LEDS. strategies, developing and maintaining data support an integrated approach to proposal design, help to support and promote new types of businesses repositories, and supporting functions and knowledge Further, it is recommended that a review of legislation funding alignment with priorities, and efficient and identify business opportunities that cross-cut products designed to raise awareness of key climate and regulations is undertaken to determine the extent implementation arrangements. Though CCICD climate adaptation and mitigation objectives. change issues in government, the private sector, to which they encourage or discourage the greener may not coordinate specific funds, it should be and civil society. CCICD works to provide support development path of Fiji’s NDP and LEDS, and the involved with all climate finance flows to support to government ministries in national efforts to 8.1.8 Local and Sub-national associated creation of more green employment. coordination, reduce duplication, and enhance mainstream climate change into development Government climate finance tracking. CCICD works closely with Finally, to further ensure and enshrine governance, planning, sectoral planning and strategies, decision- Local government entities, including city and town the national budget process and relevant offices the Ministry of Economy recommends the adoption of making, and policy. councils, district offices, and provincial councils, play a within the Ministry of Economy to improve budget a Climate Change Act for Fiji to provide a legislative coding and tracking systems. CCICD also leads on • National Advocacy and Awareness: CCICD works vital role in the delivery of the NCCP and LEDS objectives foundation to manage climate risks and drive Fiji’s with government ministries to support national at the community and national level. Local government transition to a low carbon, climate resilient economy. the reporting and monitoring of domestic climate entities will require the resources needed to take further finance sources ,such as the ECAL, private sector climate advocacy and awareness raising campaigns The Climate Change Act would strengthen the mandate to support public awareness and increase the ownership of mitigation (and adaptation) actions at the of the bodies mentioned above, and also enshrine the sources, and insurance initiatives. CCICD oversees local level. In many cases, the measures needed to Fiji’s engagement with the Green Climate Fund and visibility of key issues in adaptation and mitigation. principles of inter-ministerial cooperation for mitigation implement the LEDS include behavioural change, which and adaptation action, private sector engagement will engage internationally to enhance Fiji’s access will have to be embedded through campaigns from to sustainable climate finance flows and assist 8.1.6 Sector and Ministry-Based and data collection, management, and sharing for the the local level upward, as well as socialised through purpose of climate action and reporting. to channel those flows to the appropriate entities Climate Change Focal Points national awareness campaigns. Information on new implementing the LEDS within Fiji. As stated in the NCCP, to improve communication, climate-related regulations and policies, incentives, and Figure 85 below represents the relationships and • Implementation Coordination, Support, and coordination, and integration of Fiji’s climate change penalties will need to be disseminated at all levels for governance arrangements associated with key intra- Reporting: CCICD is responsible for coordinating objectives across government, all ministries and sectors, compliance and enforcement to be effective. All local government plans such as the NCCP, NAP, and LEDS. implementation and reporting associated with Fiji’s including state-owned agencies and enterprises (e.g., and sub-national levels will play a role implementing the This representation provides a visualisation of linkages LEDS (as well as commitments under the NDP, NDC, Water Authority of Fiji, Land transport Authority, etc.) LEDS, and should be recognized as such, and provide and is not an exhaustive depiction of Fiji’s climate and NAP). CCICD will help coordinate sector actions must nominate a designated climate change focal point training and resources. change legislation, plans, policy environment, or liaising closely with all government ministries and to CCICD. These individuals will either be existing civil institutional arrangements. agencies to support the various dimensions of NCCP servants, with current obligations relevant to climate 8.1.9 Legislation and Standards of change, or newly recruited specialists. These focal and LEDS implementation, improve data sharing, Compliance and enhance inter- and intra-ministerial cooperation. points will be equipped to manage strategic planning processes and cross-sectorial and intra-ministerial Fiji’s response to climate change will be enabled, CCICD will be supported by sector-based climate in part, through the use of standards of compliance change officers who will support coordination and engagement, including for the LEDS, and this will be part of their job description. designed to improve consistency of practice in ways integration objectives. CCICD would also act as the that reduce GHG emissions and reduce risks to people Secretariat to the LEDS Steering Committee and and to the environment. Climate change-related would be instructed to act by the Steering Committee 8.1.7 Private Sector Advisory Board legislation will help to improve the scope, enforcement, to report progress on and to review and update the To help integration and alignment between the public and value-added potential of the use of standards as a LEDS as needed. and private sectors, and in recognition of the private way to adjust business-as-usual behaviours, instigate • International Reporting and Engagement: CCICD is sector as a catalyst and financier of mitigation and behaviour change, and ultimately help to automate the action and the need for the private sector to receive progression of key priorities. Standards of Compliance responsible for reporting on behalf of the Republic of relevant, tailored, and actionable information on climate should feature as a permanent agenda point for NCCCC Fiji to the UNFCCC as well as ensuring transparency, change mitigation initiatives and impacts, CCICD plans meetings. integrity, and consistency in national reporting on 210 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 211 Figure 85. Relationships and governance arrangements associated with key intra-government plans Due to the cross-cutting nature of the LEDS, the Figure 86. Four dimensions of LEDS monitoring and such as the NCCP, NAP, and LEDS.269 performance indicators and the data required should evaluation.270 be tailored wherever possible to match existing data collection from different sectors and by FBoS. For example, a cross-cutting collection process already takes place for the TNC and the same mechanism could be employed for M&E of the NDC and the LEDS. Where there are gaps, new data collection and indicators will need to be implemented and should be coordinated with the appropriate sector bodies, alongside appropriate capacity building activities, if needed. This may require additional resources (financial in the short-term and most likely human resources in the medium- to long-term). The monitoring approach for the LEDS should allow for tracking progress of four different dimensions of the LEDS: progress made in implementation of the specific measures and policies as recommended by the LEDS; tracking emissions reductions achieved through the measures implemented; assessing co-benefits in terms of green jobs, gender inclusion, SDGs and others; and, finally, tracking the means of implementation and A robust M&E plan for the LEDS will ensure support, such as capacity building, technical assistance, transparency, accuracy, and comparability of information technology, and finance. The four dimensions of the with regards to GHG emissions for each of the five- proposed monitoring system are depicted in Figure 86 year periods leading towards 2050. The M&E plan, and below and described briefly here: supporting activities, will strengthen both national and

8.2 FRAMEWORK FOR MONITORING The M&E approach will involve using existing 1. Tracking specific policies and actions sectoral data and methodologies required to robustly AND EVALUATION OF THE LEDS government systems, while building capacity and data implemented from the LEDS; determined GHG emissions across the defined sectors. collection capability where possible. The specific M&E As M&E is implemented, lessons learnt should create 2. Tracking the GHG emissions reductions achieved

8.2.1 Monitoring and Evaluation plan required for the actions associated with the NDC against the baseline and mitigation pathways (this a positive feedback loop, strengthening data collection and LED implementation (as well as related policies processes and enabling greater accuracy in GHG Framework will be linked to the TNC and NDC tracking); and strategies, such as the NCCP and the NAP) will emission calculations. The M&E plan for the LEDS This section lays out a framework and approach for 3. Tracking impact of policies and actions in creating need performance indicators for each sector. These will should underpin the national and sectoral GHG data monitoring and evaluation of the LEDS. These elements co-benefits in terms of green jobs, gender need to be identified and decided when the M&E plan is quality and assist in identifying downstream national and will contribute to a full monitoring and evaluation inclusion, and contributing to meeting the SDG developed, in coordination with the relevant ministries sectoral priorities and strengthen policy planning and (M&E) plan and MRV system, which will be developed targets; and and other bodies. Therefore, the LEDS does not detail prioritisation towards a low carbon future. and put in place. The purpose of the approach and M&E and performance indicators for each sector, but 4. Tracking means of implementation and support, processes described below are to provide a framework to will provide high-level guidance to support associated i.e., capacity building, technical assistance, transparently demonstrate progress made towards the M&E processes. technology transfer, and amount of finance into net zero emission pathways described in the LEDS and in-line with the targets in Fiji’s NDC. the LEDS actions. Financial flows would include both domestic and international finance and both private and public money. 270Adapted from the Fiji NDC Implementation Roadmap, Ministry of Economy, 2017. 269Government of Fiji. (2018b). National Climate Change Policy. 212 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 213

8.2.2 General Evaluation Questions 1) Human Capital (health, capacity, knowledge, skills, • NDC to the Paris Agreement: Review and enhancement of Fiji’s NDC will take place and Principles for Indicators access to vital resources and services) every five years; “The strengthening In line with the principles laid out in the NCCP, the M&E 2) Natural Capital (natural resources, environmental • NAP: M&E process will be implemented on an ongoing basis with formal national of data and resilience) of progress of actions associated with the delivery of the LEDS should integrate the following principles and lines reporting at least every five years; methodologies 3) Social Capital (networks, behaviours) • NDC Roadmap and LEDS Implementation: MRV of sector emissions conducted on will require of questioning when designing indicators: an ongoing basis; 1) Coverage: What percentage of the target has been 4) Financial Capital (assets and finance) capacity building • Environment and Climate Adaptation Levy (ECAL): National reporting on use of addressed?271 5) Physical Capital (infrastructure) levied funds; and specific 2) Impact: What is the cumulative impact in relation to 6) Political Capital (trust, international partnership, • Green Bond: Issuance reporting to bond holders; actions to be the issue addressed? influence) • Climate finance: Coordination within national budgets and with donors during the designed and The LEDS takes an approach which encourages 3) Sustainability: Is the intervention sustainable? interventions aimed at producing outcomes which design phase of programming will receive support from CCICD. CCICD will work implemented in 4) Replicability: Can the intervention be learned from add value across as many different dimensions of with the relevant offices within the Ministry of Economy to create budget coding and the next two to and applied elsewhere? Would the method be used systems for tracking climate finance; and again? national capital as possible by emphasising the co- three years” benefits of climate mitigation aspects (see Chapter • Other International Cooperation related reporting. 5) Process: How was the intervention designed, 6) and recognizing that mitigation actions to drive prioritised, and justified? decarbonisation of the economy must also result in 8.2.4 Strengthening of Data and MRV systems overall positive contribution to the economy and to the The data required to support various reporting processes will require improved 6) Outcomes: What are all of the outcomes associated national capital as a whole in order to be sustainable in systems for understanding and quantifying national assets and capital. In addition with the intervention both intended and unintended? the long-term. to the financial and physical capital, improved systems will be required to measure, 7) Behaviour: Has behaviour been changed by the evaluate, and understand changes to natural, social, and human capital. intervention? 8.2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation Implementing the LEDS will require robust systems for both centralized and 8) Wellbeing: Did the outcome contribute meaningfully Reporting Responsibilities decentralized reporting. This will require new support to entities collecting and to the improvement of welfare? Relevant sector-leads and ministries from the LEDS managing data. The M&E approach includes a bottom-up approach which will be 9) Gender-responsive and sensitive: Have gender- sectors will be responsible for delivering aspects used to include the strengthening of data and methodologies, the use of existing data sensitive indicators and targets been used to design, of the LEDS. In each case, these lead agencies and and reporting pathways, the identification of additional data and reporting pathway implement, and measure results? ministries will be required to communicate M&E needs, and improved use of internationally recognized and IPCC methodologies and outcomes and reports to CCICD to support national software. The strengthening of data and methodologies will require capacity building 10) Human Rights: Have all potential human rights reporting processes. CCICD is responsible for collating and specific actions to be designed and implemented in the next two to three years to considerations and interactions been taken into and submitting Fiji’s national reporting relating to Paris ensure improved data availability and confirm reporting responsibilities before the next account in the design, implementation, and Agreement and SDG commitments to appropriate UN review and update on the LEDS. These principles will also be the foundation of setting evaluation of results? bodies. The reporting responsibilities of CCICD include, up an MRV system which will be integrated with the national reporting and inventories 11) Cost: How have funds been utilized? What are but are not limited to: system, which is managed by CCICD. Figure 87 below depicts the steps for setting up the expected budgetary implications to require • Voluntary National Reports on SDG progress an MRV system. sustainability. Have available financing sources been (voluntary); leveraged in a complementary way? • National Communications to the UNFCCC (every four The LEDS will also align with the principles laid out years); in the NCCP to ultimately measure contribution to the following disaggregated classifications of national • Biennial Update Reports to UNFCCC (two years after capital: each national communication submission); 271Coverage is especially important in relation to the range of different environments, contexts, and lifestyles found within the urban, peri-urban, coastal- rural, interior-rural, and outer islands areas of the country. 214 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 215 Figure 87. Steps for setting up and improving an MRV system. Strengthening of data collection and management capacity should be a key component of the M&E plan, as the consultations undertaken during the development of the LEDS identified that a key constraint in achieving greater accuracy of the estimated sectoral GHG emissions and ANNEX A. LIST OF PRIORITISED future scenarios was the availability and reliability of data. Strengthening of data availability will enable greater standardization of methodologies and for Fiji to move from using IPCC Tier 1 methodologies towards IPCC Tier 3. This strengthening will take place in cooperation between the various implementing entities of the LEDS associated with data gathering and reporting in the different sectors, with CCICD and FBoS playing key coordination and data consolidation roles. ACTIONS, WITH HIGH-LEVEL COSTING AND TIMELINE 216 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 217 ANNEX A. LIST OF PRIORITISED ACTIONS, Action BAU-U Scenario271 BAU-C HA VHA High-Level Costing (USD millions) Main Implementer Implementation Timeframe WITH HIGH-LEVEL COSTING AND TIMELINE Capacity Building for Renewable Energy and Smart Grids. Capacity building needs for renewable energy X X X X Variable costs DoE, FCC, EFL, Academic Short-term and ongoing to 2050 development and smart grids will be continuously Institutions For purposes of this table, “short-term” actions are to be implemented between 2018-2025, “medium-term” actions addressed (USP, FNU, UoF, are to be implemented between 2026-2035, and “long-term” actions are to be implemented between 2036-2050. TVET) All costs are indicative and, in many cases, will need to be confirmed through further investigation and feasibility New solar with storage installations. 272 MW273 X 1,360 EFL, DoE, IPPs, Gradual –short- studies. It should be noted that this list is not exhaustive, and the costs are not cumulative but depend on the solar PV with storage (including rooftop solar) private sector, to long-term households, scenarios and specific actions which are implemented. New biomass installation. 136 MW biomass X 544 EFL, IPPs Gradual –short- Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation generation to long-term (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA New geothermal installation. 52 MW geothermal X 415 EFL, IPPs Long-term capacity274 Energy Sector (Grid electricity, off-grid electricity, cooking fuels) New wind installation. 150 MW wind power are X 975 EFL, IPPs, DoE Medium- to installed by 2050 long-term Energy policy. Review, update and endorsement of X X X X 0.05-0.15 DoE 2019 the national energy policy New W2E installation. 10 MW Waste to Energy (W2E) X 35 EFL, IPPs, DoE Short-term New biomass installation. 22 MW of biomass power X 88 EFL, IPPs Short-term New biogas installation. Biogas for electricity (1 X 1.25 EFL, IPPs, DoE Short-term MW) New solar installation. 223 MW of solar PV is X 1330 EFL, IPPs, DoE Gradual starting installed by 2050 from 2018 Investigation of ocean energy. Initial efforts are X Variable costs EFL, IPPs, Medium- to undertaken to develop ocean energy namely tidal DoE, Academic long-term New hydro installation. 0.7 MW of new hydro X 2.1 EFL, IPPs, DoE Short term power, wave energy and Ocean Thermal Energy Institutions New fossil fuel installation. 105 MW new HFO X 185.5 EFL, IPPs Medium- to Conversion (OTEC) and 142 MW IDO are installed to satisfy increased long-term New solar and storage installation. 322 MW solar X 1,600 DoE, EFL, IPPs, Gradual starting demand.272 PV (including extensive rooftop solar) with storage private sector, from 2018 Clean Cookstoves. Open fire cooking is completely X X Variable costs EFL, Private Short to and households replaced with LPG, kerosene, and electric stoves in Sector, DoE medium New wind installation. 200 MW wind power is on the X 1,300 DoE, EFL, IPPs Medium- to urban by 2030 long-term grid by 2050 Energy Efficiency. Energy efficiency measures, X X X X Variable costs DoE, FCCC, Short to Wood Fuel Use Eliminated. For off-grid locations, all X Variable costs EFL, DoE, private Gradual starting capacity building and education are implemented EFL, Academic medium household use of wood fuel for cooking is eliminated sector 2018 economy-wide Institutions by 2030 (USP, FNU, UoF) Replacing Diesel Generators. all diesel generators X 33 EFL, DoE, Gradual – Codes and standards. Updating of codes and X X X X 0.5 MITT, private Short to (5.5 MW at present) in off-grid locations will be tourism private medium-term standards for buildings and industry sector medium replaced with solar PV with storage by 2040, sector, and other Minimum Energy Performance Standards and X X X X 1.5 DoE, FCCC, EFL, Short to including at off-grid resorts private sector Labelling. Minimum energy performance standards FRCS, customs, medium Electric Stoves in On-Grid Households. all grid- X X Variable costs DoE, EFL, private Long-term and labelling are implemented for all major private sector, connected households use electric stoves by 2050 sector electrical appliances (including public education and households awareness raising) Electric Stoves in Off-Grid Households. all off-grid X Variable costs EFL, DoE, private Long-term households use electric stoves by 2050275 sector Energy efficiency in the business community. X X X X 2.0 FCCC, FRCS, Short to Adoption of ISO 50001:2011 – Energy Management DoE, MITT, medium New hydro installation. 285 MW new hydropower X 171 DoE, EFL, IPPs Gradual – private sector Short- to long- term Energy efficiency in the public sector. Review of 4.0 MOE, FCCC, Short to budgeting processes and procurement, adoption DoE, all medium New biomass installation: 166 MW biomass power X 664 EFL, IPPs Gradual – of ISO 50001:2011 – Energy Management, energy government Short- to long- efficiency demonstration projects for public ministries term buildings New W2E installation: 10 MW W2E X 35 EFL, IPPs Short-term Renewable Energy Database. A centralized X X X X Variable costs DoE, FCC, Short-term renewable energy resource database is launched, EFL, Academic New geothermal installation: 150 MW geothermal X 600276 EFL, IPPs Medium- to regularly updated, and made available to investors Institutions capacity long-term (USP, FNU, UoF) Solar PV Guidelines and Regulations. Grid- X X X X Variable costs DoE, FCC, Short-term connected solar PV guidelines and regulations are EFL, Academic 273This is cumulative, not additional, so including the 223 proposed under the BAU-Unconditional scenario. The same applies for all other renewable established and enforced, including review of FiT Institutions and/or introduction of net metering mechanisms (USP, FNU, UoF) energy installations under BAU-Condition, High Ambition and Very High Ambition Scenarios. 274Assuming exploration of geothermal resource potential is carried out separately. 271BAU-U = BAU Unconditional; BAU-C = BAU Conditional; HA = High Ambition; VHA = Very High Ambition 275An option could be investigated to use biodigesters to produce gas for cooking in off-grid locations in lieu of electric stoves. However, this would apply 272In the absence of funding for establishing new renewable energy systems under the BAU Unconditional scenario, IDO.HFO generators will be needed only where there are also farming activities and sufficient water availability and it has not been considered in this analysis. 276Assuming exploration of geothermal resource potential is carried out separately. to satisfy additional demand, especially from the transport sector. This cost will not be incurred in any of the other scenarios. 218 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 219 Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe Ocean power installations. First ocean power X Variable cost EFL, IPPs Long-term Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)s. Promotion of hybrid X 79 Private sector 2019 to 2050 installations at feasible sites277 electric vehicles (HEVs) – cars, taxis, and buses purchases vehicles, New solar with storage installation. 522 MW solar X 2,300 EFL, IPPs, DoE Gradual – short- government PV with storage (including extensive rooftop) to long-term sets targets and New hydro installation. 435 MW hydropower X 5,200 EFL, IPPs, DoE Gradual – short- regulations to long-term Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)s. Promotion of hybrid X 61 Private sector 2019 to 2030 New W2E installation. 10 MW W2E installation X 35 EFL, IPPs, DoE Short-term electric vehicles (HEVs) – cars, taxis, and buses purchases vehicles, government New biomass installation. 256 MW biomass power X 1,000 EFL, IPPs, DoE Gradual – short- sets targets and is installed by 2050 to long-term regulations Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) Adoption. New V2G technology X Variable cost EFL, IPPs, Medium- to Electric Vehicles (EV)s. Adoption of electric vehicles X 997 Private sector Starting from implemented to support the grid starting 2040 private sector, long-term (EVs) – taxis (50%), buses (90%), cars (20%), urban purchases 2040 onwards and vehicle trucks (40%) 281282 vehicles, owners government New geothermal and ocean energy installation: 350 X 1,400 EFL, IPPs Medium- to sets targets and MW geothermal long-term regulations New wind installation: 350 MW wind (on and X 4,600 EFL, IPPs, DoE Medium- to Electric Vehicles (EV)s. Adoption electric vehicles X 4,469 Private sector Starting from offshore) long-term (EVs) 283 – Taxis, buses, cars, and urban trucks purchases 2025 onwards (100%); large trucks (40%) vehicles, Solar for Off-grid resorts. By 2040, all off-grid X 42-48 Tourism private Gradual starting government resorts are using 10 MW solar PV and 0.5 MW wind sector 2018- short- to sets targets and power for their electricity requirements long-term regulations Land Transport Electric Vehicles (EV)s. Adoption of electric vehicles X 5,167 Private sector Starting from National Electric mobility strategy. Development of X X X 0.2 Ministry of Short-term (EVs) – Taxis, buses, cars and urban trucks (100%); purchases 2025 onwards a national electric mobility strategy for cars, taxis, Infrastructure large trucks (70%) vehicles, buses and trucks, including hybrid electric and and Transport, government electric vehicles FRA, LTA sets targets and regulations Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)s. Promotion of hybrid X 344 Private sector 2019 to 2050 electric vehicles (HEVs)278 – cars, taxis, and buses279 purchases Electric Vehicles (EV)s. Adoption of electric vehicles X 7,322 Private sector Starting from vehicles, (EVs) – All vehicles 100% electric purchases 2025 onwards government vehicles, sets targets and government regulations sets targets and regulations Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)s. Promotion of hybrid X 92 Private sector 2019 to 2050 electric vehicles (HEVs) – cars, taxis, and buses280 purchases Public Transport. Promotion of public transport284 X X X X 8-10 Ministry of Gradual vehicles, including separated bus lanes, cameras, and ITS Infrastructure increase government and Transport, depending on sets targets and FRA, LTA scenario regulations Non-Motorised Transport. Promotion of non- X X X 20 MoIT, FRA, LTA Gradual motorised transport,285 including bicycle lanes increase 277This would require resource assessment and also availability of commercially proven devices. depending on 278Different target levels for each scenario. Unconditional initially low and then slowly growing HEV target levels and very high ambition starts with high scenario penetration levels of HEV which quickly drop as EVs are promoted within this scenario instead of HEVs. Biofuels. Development of a national biofuel strategy X X X X 3000 per annum286 MoIT, MoE, Up to 2025 279Incremental CAPEX of USD 1,500 per car and taxi and USD 20,000 per bus; incremental CAPEX is recovered with fuel savings. USD 280 million for cars and promotion of biofuels including measures such FRCS, Private and taxis; USD 64 million for buses. as subsidies or tax exemption as required. These sector 280This is the capex required for the specific scenario. This also applies for High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios. measures would support a bioethanol blend for petrol and biodiesel blend for diesel. Fuel Efficiency in Trucks. Efficiency improvement of X X 3 Private sector, Up to 2021 trucks by using deflectors and replacement of tyres LTA and development of eco-driving training centres with truck simulators 281Different target levels for each scenario. BAU-Unconditional starts at 0% and then slowly growing EV target levels and very high ambition starts with low penetration levels of EV which quickly increase to reach 100% penetration levels. 282Incremental CAPEX based on today’s cost differences: incremental CAPEX is expected to be recovered until 2025 with energy and maintenance savings for buses, taxis and urban trucks and by 2030 for private cars and 2035 for long-haul trucks; incremental CAPEX today USD 15,000 per taxi, passenger cars: USD 150,000 per bus; USD 40,000 per urban truck; USD 150,000 per long-haul truck. 283Incremental cumulative capex, not additional, so including the capex required under the BAU-Unconditional scenario. This also applies for High Ambition and Very High Ambition scenarios. 284Lower target levels for less ambitious scenarios. 285Lower target levels for less ambitious scenarios. 286Based on incremental cost of biofuels of around USD 0.20 per litre, 5% biodiesel and 10% bioethanol, incremental cost based on price differences in Europe. 220 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 221 Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe Domestic Maritime Transport Traditional Sailing. Revitalisation of Traditional X X X X 0.5 - 1 Ministry of Short-term, sailing culture. Culture, Ministry ongoing National Action Plan for decarbonisation of X X X 0.2 Ministry of Short-term of Education maritime transport. Design of a long-term National Infrastructure Action Plan for decarbonisation of the maritime and Transport Domestic Air Transport transport sector in Fiji to 2050. Efficient Aircraft. 40% of domestic fleet activity X 120 -400290 Fiji Link, Medium- to Maritime Data Collection and Analysis. Domestic X X X X 3 FBoS, MoIT, From 2019 and replaced with efficient aircraft by 2030 and increases Northern Air long-term maritime data collection, storage, and analysis287 FRCS, MSAF ongoing to 2050 to 80% by 2050. 4-Stroke Engines. Implementation of a national X X X X 0.5 -1 MoIT, MoE, Short-term Efficient Aircraft. 100% domestic fleet replaced with X 500-600 Fiji Link, Medium- to program of transition from 2-stroke to 4-stroke to FRCS efficient aircraft Northern Air long-term electric outboard motors Off-Grid Airports. All off-grid airports are 100% X X X X 8-10 Airports Fiji Short- to Demonstration Vessels. An integrated series X X X X 10 – 100288 GSS, Ministry of Short- to powered by solar PV Limited; medium-term of ‘proof of concept’ demonstration low carbon Health, Min of medium-term Civil Aviation government department vessels at various scales Education, MoIT, Authority of Fiji from village to inter-island transport. This will be MSAF, MoE, (CAAF) accompanied by GSS 30-year fleet replacement Police, Navy Gate Power. All aircraft at off-grid airports rely on X X X X 10 Airports Fiji Short- to strategy with addition of low carbon vessels over dedicated solar PV systems for auxiliary power while Limited; CAAF medium-term time. at gate (replacing diesel generators) Research, Education, and capacity Building. X X X X Variable cost USP, SPC, FMA/ 2019 and Biojet Fuel. 20% of flight activity using biojet by 2040 X Variable costs291 Ministries Medium- to Adoption and implementation of a long-term FNU, Ministry of ongoing which increases to 40% by 2050. X of Economy, long-term research, education, and capacity building strategy Education Agriculture, to underpin a successful domestic low carbon Sugar and Fiji maritime transition. Link, Northern Financing modalities for first phase of investments X X X X 50 -100 MoIT, FRCS, Short- to air in proven technologies. Identification and MoE medium-term Energy efficiency. Improved load factor and aircraft X X X X Variable costs Fiji Link, Gradual: short- development of financing modalities289 to support traffic management at all airports, single engine Northern Air and to medium- private sector uptake of commercial proven taxiing, continuous descent AFL term measures at scale. Electric Aircraft. 20% of all passenger activity is via X Undetermined at Fiji Link, Long-term Economic Opportunities. Identification of the X X 0.05 – 0.2 MoIT, MoE Immediate electric planes the moment Northern Air long-term positive economic opportunities for Fiji’s maritime service delivery industry, tourism industry, AFOLU manufacturing, and finance sectors from positioning Reduced logging emissions in Natural Forests. X 0.2 Ministry of Short-term Fiji as the Pacific hub for low carbon maritime Decrease emissions from logging in natural forests Forestry transition. (forest degradation) by 1%.292 The action can be Policy Incentives. Economic instruments (e.g., tax X X X 0.1 – 0.25 MoE, FRCS Immediate implemented by training of wood cutters in the field incentives) to drive transition of all small motors of reduced impact felling techniques in order to from fossil fuel to sail or RE powered small motors reduce felling residuals. (e.g., electric outboards) Reduced logging emissions in Natural Forests. X X X 0.4 Ministry of Medium-term Fuel Efficiency Standards. Vessel imports subject to X X X X 0.05-0.15 MITT, MSAF, Immediate Decrease emissions from logging in natural forests Forestry increasingly stringent efficiency standards and fossil FRCS (forest degradation) by 10%. This includes training fuel powered vessels increasingly penalized of wood cutters, machine operators and logging planners in the field of resource-saving reduced Financing modalities for second phase of X X X 50-100 MoEcon, MoIT, Medium- to impact logging (felling and skidding) techniques and investments established to support uptake of new FRCS long-term by providing advanced skidding equipment. technologies. Vessel financing modality programme established and implemented to support public and Reduced Deforestation.293 Decrease emissions from X X 6 Ministry of Short-term private sector uptake of new technologies including deforestation by 10%.294 The avoidance of clear- Forestry, Forest wind hybrid, battery hybrid, Wing-in-Ground. cutting and land use changes can be achieved by owners, Local designating protected areas or restrictions on use. stakeholders Shipping Franchise and Sea Route Licensing. X X X X 0.1-0.15 MoIT Short-term Review of Shipping Franchise and Sea Route Reduced Deforestation. Decrease emissions from X 12 Ministry of Mid-term licensing in favour of low/zero carbon vessels and deforestation by 20%295 The avoidance of clear- Forestry, Forest operational efficiencies cutting and land use changes can be achieved by owners, Local designating protected areas or restrictions on use. stakeholders 287USD 200,000 for set-up and 100,000 per year to 2050. 288Over 10 years. 290Assuming the cost of new aircraft to be around USD 40-50 million each (mainly ATRs or similar). 289For example, soft loans, green bonds. 291Studies have indicated that Biojet fuel costs could fall within the same range as fossil fuel costs by 2030, for example see Hayward et al. (2015). The economics of producing sustainable aviation fuel: a regional case study in Queensland, Australia. 292These measures and the measures for 10% reduction in forest degradation can be implemented through the Fiji Forest Harvesting Code of Practice. 293For all reducing deforestation actions, the forest owners must be compensated for financial losses, and all relevant local stakeholders must be given due consideration in design of incentives, etc. Further, these actions can be implemented as part of REDD+. 294Assumes annual average volume extracted of 600,000 m3, 10% would amount to 60,000 m3. With an average price USD 100/m3, loss of income amounts to USD 6,000,000. 295Assumes annual average volume extracted of 600,000 m3, 20% would amount to 120,000 m3. With an average price USD 100/m3, loss of income amounts to USD 12,000,000. 222 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 223 Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe Reduced Deforestation. Decrease emissions from X 48 Ministry of Long-term Enteric Fermentation in Livestock. Reduce X 3 Ministry of Medium-term deforestation by 80%296 The avoidance of clear- Forestry, Forest emissions from enteric fermentation in commercial Agriculture, cutting and land use changes can be achieved by owners, Local livestock by 5% through extended training of Koronivia designating protected areas or restrictions on use. stakeholders farmers and financial support for improving Research Possible compensation areas for alternative land livestock productivity through embryo transfer Station, Fiji use must be designated. This requires adapted land- and genetic improvement. Policies to encourage Livestock use planning policies. changes in livestock breed are recommended. Corporation, local farmers Increased plantation Productivity. Increase X 0.5 Fiji Pine Ltd, Fiji Short-term productivity in forest plantations by 20%. This Hardwood Ltd Enteric Fermentation in Livestock. Reduce X 9 Ministry of Long-term includes measures to increase survival rates emissions from enteric fermentation in commercial Agriculture, after planting and exploitation of the potential site livestock by 10% through extended training of Koronivia productivity. To increase timber production, higher farmers, support for improving livestock productivity Research numbers of seedlings should be planted during through embryo transfer and genetic improvement, Station, Fiji plantation establishment and thinning should be and changes of diets. Policies to encourage changes Livestock applied for stand maintenance. These measures in livestock breed and support of changing diets are Corporation, are taken by the operators of the plantations and do recommended. local farmers not require any specific policy measures other than Manure Management. Reduce emissions from X 1 Ministry of Medium-term financial support, if needed. manure management in commercial livestock by Agriculture, Increased plantation Productivity. Increase X 1 Fiji Pine Ltd, Fiji Mid-term 2% through improved animal diets and instalment Koronivia productivity in forest plantations by 30%. In addition Hardwood Ltd of bio-digesters. These measures may be part of Research to the above-mentioned measures, site specific guidelines for the promotion of bioenergy. Station, Fiji growth models should be derived which allow for an Livestock optimisation of the time of harvest. These measures Corporation, are taken by the operators of the plantations and do local farmers, not require any specific policy measures other than DoE financial support, if needed. Manure Management. Reduce emissions from X 9 Ministry of Long-term Increased plantation Productivity. Increase X 2 Fiji Pine Ltd, Fiji Long-term manure management in commercial livestock by Agriculture, productivity in forest plantations by 40%. Further Hardwood Ltd 10% through improved animal diets and instalment Koronivia increases in productivity can be achieved through of bio-digesters. These measures may be part of Research tree improvement and the cultivation of alternative guidelines for the promotion of bioenergy. Station, Fiji tree species. This requires extensive forest growth Livestock trials. These measures are taken by the operators Corporation, of the plantations and do not require any specific local farmers, policy measures other than financial support and DoE permission to grow non-native tree species. Synthetic Fertilisers. Reduce emissions from the X X 0.4 Ministry of Medium-term Afforestation.297 Afforestation of 10,000 ha with X 12299 Fiji Pine Ltd Mid-term use of synthetic fertilisers by 1%. Measures are the Agriculture, mahogany or equivalent hardwoods.298 Pine can also training of farmers in the application of synthetic Koronivia be used as pine plantations show higher growth fertilisers (type of fertiliser; quantity and time of Research than mahogany plantations and thus sequester application). Station, Fiji higher amounts CO2. These measures require Livestock adapted land-use planning policies. Corporation, local farmers Afforestation. Afforestation of 77,400 ha with X 93300 Fiji Pine Ltd Long-term mahogany, pine, other hardwood species and native Synthetic Fertilisers. Reduce emissions from the X X 0.4 Ministry of Medium- to species. These measures require adapted land-use use of synthetic fertilisers by 1% through training. Agriculture, long-term planning policies. Koronivia Research Enteric Fermentation in Livestock. Reduce X 1 Ministry of Short-term Station, Fiji emissions from enteric fermentation in commercial Agriculture, Livestock livestock by 1%. Measures to be taken are training Koronivia Corporation, of farmers and the financial support for improving Research local farmers livestock productivity through embryo transfer and Station, Fiji genetic improvement. Livestock Wetlands (Blue Carbon) Corporation, Review and adoption of the Mangrove Management X X X X 0.03 - 0.05 MOE&W, 2019 local farmers Plan Ministry of Forests, Ministry 296Assumes annual average volume extracted of 600,000 m3, 80% would amount to 480,000 m3. With an average price USD 100/m3, loss of income of Lands amounts to USD 48,000,000. 297Afforestation measures can be part of the REDD+ implementation. Carry out carbon sequestration studies for the X X X 0.1-0.2 USP Short- to 298Assumes costs incurred for planting. Income from logging would exceed the costs of the plantation, including rent, and compensation for landowners. seagrass meadows in Fiji medium-term 299Financing can take the form of long-term loans, which are repaid when the timber is harvested. Obtain high-resolution satellite imagery and map X 0.15-0.2 SPC, Ministry of Short- to 300Financing can take the form of long-term loans, which are repaid when the timber is harvested. mangrove cover and land use changes Lands, MoE&W medium-term 224 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 225 Action Scenario271 High-Level Costing Main Implementation BAU-U BAU-C HA VHA (USD millions) Implementer Timeframe Replicate above-ground and below-ground biomass X 0.5 USP Short- to studies for mangroves and soil carbon content an all medium-term major locales nationally Include Blue Carbon in the next National X X X 0.05 - 0.1 Ministry of Short- to Communication to the UNFCCC Economy, medium-term MoE&W Establishment of nurseries for rearing of seedlings X X X 0.15 – 0.2 MoE&W Medium-term for replanting & training and capacity building in mangrove protection, planting, and restoration Establishing a database for all management X X X Variable cost MoE&W Medium-term activities in mangroves and seagrass beds Formulate baseline for seagrass emissions in Fiji X X Variable cost MoE&W Medium-term Design, prepare, and adopt policy for replanting X X 0.3 MoE&W Short- to of mangroves and carry out awareness to private medium-term sector and public Waste 3R policy. A national 3R policy to be developed and X X 0.5301 Ministry of Short-term implemented to minimise waste going to landfill, Waterways and (2018 – 2025) encourage recycling and composting of household Environment kitchen and green waste Increased Composting. Composting facility X 0.7302 Suva City Short-term launched and operational. Council, Nasinu Town Council, Nausori Town Council Waste management awareness program. Creating awareness amongst society for behavioural change in successful implementation of 3R policy. X 0.15303 Department of Waterways and Environment Short-term REFERENCES Development of transfer waste station. Reduces X 0.12 - 0.7304 Private company Short-term the transportation time and cost and emissions (WasteClear) and associated with carting waste to Naboro Landfill. Nasinu Town The waste transfer station will provide opportunity Council for separating organic waste and diversion of organic waste from the landfill. Enforcement of Container Deposit Legislation. X Variable cost Ministry Medium-term Legislation has been passed by the cabinet. This of Waterways action would implement and enforce the legislation, and Environment including public awareness and engagement, consultation and planning with the private sector. Waste-to-Energy. Kinoya Waste-to-Energy, X 3.8305 Water Authority Medium-term electricity cogeneration facility – launched and Fiji operational Landfill Methane. Naboro landfill methane recovery X 2306 Mo W&E and HG Long-term and utilization facility – launched and operational Leach 301Department of Environment. (2018). National Integrated Waste Management Strategies 2016-2028. 302The amount includes the cost of land, infrastructure, machinery, and labor cost for 1 year. 303Department of Environment. (2018). National Integrated Waste Management Strategies 2016-2028. 304A proposal was recently submitted to Department of Environment by waste clear company. To have the waste transfer station launched and operational (basic) it would cost approximately USD 117,000 which mostly includes the cost of the land and minimum infrastructure. To have an enclosed waste transfer station, mechanical handling of materials, mechanical sorting of waste and collection and treatment of leachate then it would cost approximately USD 705,000. 305A proposal was made to WAF by EVO Energy Technologies for power cogeneration for Kinoya. Based on the current capacity of inflow rates a total investment of FJD 2.65 million was estimated. Due to the ADB investment and current extension plans at Kinyoa the capacity will almost increase by three-fold and therefore the costing is upscaled by a factor of three as well and is estimated to be approximately USD 3.8 million. 306Mani et al. (2016). 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Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges, Photo Credits eCLAT. Cover photo: Kristin Deason/GGGI; Solar panels at an island resort: Matt Capper/Talanoa Treks. Section 1, p19; Sky, Wu, T. et.al. (2014). Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963-2050. mountain and landscape with trees: Kristin Deason/GGGI. Section 2, p25; Solar panels in Suva: Katerina Syngellakis/ GGGI. Section 3, p33; Hydropower reservoir in Taveuni: Bruce Clay/Clay Energy. Section 4, p40; Bus in Suva: Kristin WWF. (2011). PowerPoint Presentation: Hotels Energy Efficiency Project. Deason/GGGI. p74; Traditional canoe in Suva Harbour: Lukasz Warzecha. p92; Fiji Airways aeroplane: Fiji Airways. p108; Forest: Kristin Deason/GGGI. p117; Mangroves: Kristin Deason/GGGI. p140; Waste management at Naboro landfill: Aarsi Sagar/GGGI. p155.; Hotel with beachfront in the Yasawas: Kristin Deason/GGGI. p169; Rural house with solar home system: Kristin Deason/GGGI. Section 5, p183; Aerial view of rural area: Kristin Deason/GGGI. Section 6, p191; Small boat on the water: Kristin Deason/GGGI. Section 7, p200; Mountain cliff in Viti Levu: Kristin Deason/ GGGI. Section 8, p207; Suva sandbank: Shenila Saniyog/GGGI. Annex A, p217; Mountains and valley with river in Viti Levu: Kristin Deason/GGGI. References, p227. 232 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 CONTACT Ministry of Economy PO Box 2212, Government Buildings, Suva, Fiji Ro Lalabalavu House Tele: (679) 330 7011, Fax: (679) 330 0834 370 Victoria Parade Suva Website: www.economy.gov.fj Email: EconomyInformation@economy.gov.fj 234 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050