The Bahamas NDC 3.0

Article 6 financing will drive a significant percentage of conditional ambition for the NDC 3.0 period. NDC 3.0 builds upon the 2022 Updated NDC (NDC 2.0), further demonstrating The Bahamas’ commitment to the enhancement and implementation of its climate mitigation and adaptation goals. NDC 3.0 also illustrates The Bahamas’ resilience in the face of significant losses and damages resulting from continuous climate impacts, and the country’s climate vulnerabilities. Moreover, NDC 3.0 underscores our commitment to meet and exceed targets through impactful national projects and partnerships. Against this backdrop, the Government of The Bahamas established the Ministry of Energy and Transport (MOET) which has the responsibility for leading a national energy and transportation reform. This includes modernising systems, implementing a sustainable network with utility-scale solar projects throughout the Commonwealth, and upgrading the country’s transmission and distribution lines. Moreover, the Government has secured financing to support the country’s first National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which will include sectoral plans. Furthermore, with the establishment of the National Emissions Registry (NER), the Government has created an electronic database, which will assist in the development of updated national greenhouse gas inventories, while supporting NDC mitigation tracking. Additionally, in May 2025, The Bahamas published a revised National Energy Policy (2025-2030) and has committed to its revision every five years, in keeping with the NDC submission cycle. 5 While NDC 3.0 outlines our climate actions and goals, this document also takes a deep dive into a greater need for more ambitious adaptation measures. The Bahamas recognises that even if the country were to transition to a net zero economy today, it would still not be enough to reduce or eliminate our vulnerabilities to the existential threats of climate change. Consequently, The Bahamas continues to strongly advocate for increased climate finance support that targets adaptation actions. Through meaningful partnerships and stakeholder engagements, The Bahamas has made great strides in its climate efforts. Notwithstanding these efforts, it is important that the country develops a robust and comprehensive NDC tracking mechanism that will monitor and measure the impact of our climate actions as identified in our NDCs. The Bahamas stands ready to receive support that will allow the country to effectively and comprehensively monitor, measure, and evaluate its climate mitigation and adaptation actions. Although The Bahamas is a small island state with limited resources, our country remains committed to the Paris Agreement and to the advancement of ambitious NDCs. Moreover, the climate targets set out in this document are not only being proposed to curb emissions, but to increase adaptation, climate resilience, and sustainable development co-benefits. For The Bahamas, NDC 3.0 is not a “wish list”, alternatively, NDC 3.0 represents urgent climate actions and measures required to ensure a resilient future for our islands and our people. 6 2. National Circumstances Government An independent nation since 1973, The Bahamas has a democratic parliamentary system of governance. Parliament constitutes the Legislative Branch and is a two-chamber system based on the Westminster model, with a House of Assembly and a Senate. There are currently 39 seats in the House of Assembly and 16 members of the Senate (Government of The Bahamas, 2024a). The Judiciary comprises the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court, which function as independent bodies under the Constitution, rather than as departments of Government. Each island, with the exception of New Providence, is divided into Local Government districts and townships under the Local Government Act, 1996. There are currently 33 Local Government districts, and local elections are held every three years. The Local Government Act 2024 expands financial independence and enhances public involvement in the local government system across the Family Islands. Under the previous 1996 Act, Local Councils relied heavily on Central Government budgetary allocations. The new Act provides broader fiscal powers, allowing Local Councils to generate revenue through local taxes, fees, and grants. The new Act also mandates Local Councils to hold town meetings and consultations on a regular basis to ensure that community members have opportunities to participate in local governance. Furthermore, the legislation requires regular audits of Council finances and operations, with audit reports made publicly accessible. This decentralised structure has implications for climate change governance, local adaptation, and implementation of national environmental policies. Population The population of The Bahamas was recorded at 398,165 in the 2022 Census, representing a 13.3% increase since 2010 (BNSI 2024a). This marks the lowest average annual growth rate in the past 52 years, at just 1.2% per year between 2010 and 2022 (BNSI 2024a). Population growth has not been evenly distributed across the islands. New Providence, the main population centre, experienced a 20.5% increase between 2010 and 2022. This growth was driven both by natural increase and inward migration, including the relocation of Bahamians from Abaco and Grand Bahama following the devastating impacts of Hurricane Dorian in 2019. In contrast, Grand Bahama’s population declined by 9.0%, falling from 51,368 to 46,740, and Abaco recorded a 3.1% decline, from 17,224 to 16,695 (BNSI 2024a). 8 At the national level, net migration increased by 73% compared to 2010. As of 2022, 74.5% of Bahamians resided on New Providence and 11.7% on Grand Bahama. Among the Family Islands, Abaco accounted for 4.2% of the total population, while San Salvador represented just 0.2%, highlighting the wide disparity in settlement patterns across the archipelago (BNSI 2024a). Source: Bahamas National Statistical Institute (2024a). Figure 2.1: Population change in selected islands The largest share of the population in 2022 was within the 15–19 age group. However, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over rose by 0.8% in the same year, indicating an emerging aging demographic trend. National population density increased from 65.3 persons per square mile in 2010, to 74.0 persons per square mile in 2022, with New Providence remaining the most densely populated island (BNSI 2024a). The most recent National Poverty Assessment was conducted in 2013 as a part of the Household Expenditure Survey Report. It indicated that 12.5% of the Bahamian population lived below the poverty line. In 2017, the United Nations Development Programme estimated that 14.8% of the population lived below poverty, showing an increase in the national poverty level (Galanis, 2023). In September 2025, the BNSI launched the Household Expenditure Survey process, for the first time in over a decade, after navigating 9 capacity constraints and delays related to Hurricane Dorian and the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey targeted approximately 3,500 households throughout New Providence and selected Family Islands, including Grand Bahama and Abaco. Geography The geography of The Bahamas contributes to its vulnerability, as an archipelagic nation of over 700 islands and cays, The Bahamas is spread across 100,000 square miles of ocean. The Geographic characteristics of the country include low relief with generally flat terrain and elevations of less than 32 feet (10 metres). 80% of the land lies less than 1.5 metres above sea level resulting in vulnerability to floods caused by sea level rise and storm surges due to hurricanes (United Nations Development Programme, 2025). Islands of the southeast and central Bahamas are generally of higher elevation than islands in the northern Bahamas. The highest elevation in the country is Mount Alvernia on Cat Island which is approximately 211 feet (64 metres). The Bahamian archipelago is home to diverse ecosystems and natural resources, including coral reefs, seagrass beds, mangroves, blue holes, and pine forests, which support endangered and endemic species. The country contains one-third of the Caribbean’s coral reefs, supports the third-longest barrier reef globally, and has the largest seagrass beds in the world, making it a critical contributor to global biodiversity and carbon storage. These ecosystems also provide vital coastal protection, fisheries support, and carbon sequestration, which are essential for resilience against climate change. Coral reefs contribute an estimated USD 671 million in dive-related tourism, USD 23.5 million per year to fisheries production, and provide coastal protection for many of the vulnerable communities in The Bahamas (The Nature Conservancy, 2025). In this regard, The Government of The Bahamas received capacity building support from some of the world's leading marine scientists and is set to undertake the mapping of a full Marine Greenhouse Gas inventory. Economic Profile The economy of The Bahamas is primarily dependent on tourism and financial services. The country is classified as high income, with a Gini coefficient of 0.57 as of 2023 (Ministry of Social Services, 2024). In 2024, The Bahamas' economy remained predominantly service-oriented, with tourism and financial services collectively accounting for approximately 80–85% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Tourism alone contributed about 70% of national output, while financial services represented around 15%, underscoring the nation's reliance on these sectors for economic stability (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2024; Central Bank of The Bahamas, 2024). Just under 50% of the labour force is directly employed in tourism. When indirect employment is added, this increases to 70%. Conversely, manufacturing and agriculture sectors continued to play a minimal role, 10 together comprising only about 1–3% of GDP, reflecting the limited industrial base and challenges in economic diversification (Central Bank of The Bahamas, 2024). Given The Bahamas’ service based economy and geography, the country is vulnerable to changes in the global economy and climate-related shocks. For example, most of the infrastructure and settlements of the islands are located along or near the coast, where they are particularly vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise, which will continue to have serious economic and social implications for residents and for sectors of the economy, particularly the tourism sector (Ministry of Finance, 2024). Notably, the most catastrophic climate-related shock experienced by the country was Hurricane Dorian in 2019, which primarily devastated the northern islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama, causing an estimated US$3.4 billion in total damages and losses equal to about one-quarter of national GDP (Inter-American Development Bank, 2021). The housing sector alone suffered more than US$1.4 billion in damage, while critical infrastructure such as power (US$131 million), telecommunications (US$42 million), and transport (US$50 million) were severely disrupted (Inter-American Development Bank, 2021). The tourism industry lost more than US$325 million in service revenue, and biodiversity impacts included widespread mangrove destruction and an oil spill in Grand Bahama, which significantly affected the island’s marine and coastal resources sector (Inter-American Development Bank, 2019). Figure 2.2: The Bahamas Air and Sea Visitors by Year Trends (2010-2024) 11 Less than 6 months later, the COVID‑19 pandemic triggered a severe economic crisis in The Bahamas, primarily affecting tourism and transport sectors. Accommodation and food services contracted by around 70%, while transportation and storage also declined by approximately 70%, reflecting the sharp reduction in both stopover and cruise arrivals (Figure 2.2). These disruptions had cascading effects on trade, retail, and construction, exacerbating the overall economic downturn (IDB/ECLAC, 2021). Persistent unemployment in hurricane-affected islands may undermine community resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of climate shocks. Following the above climate and global shocks, there has been a growth in tourist arrivals to The Bahamas. As of 2024, there were approximately 11.2 million foreign arrivals, including 1.7 million air arrivals and 9.5 million cruise arrivals (Figure 2.2). As of the first half of 2025 (January to June), The Bahamas recorded approximately 6.3 million foreign arrivals, including around 1 million air arrivals and 5.2 million cruise arrivals (Ministry of Tourism, 2025). Additionally, The Bahamas recorded several notable economic achievements. In November 2024, the Government completed a landmark debt conversion for marine conservation agreement, repurchasing US$300 million in external debt and directed the debt service savings of US$124 million, over 15 years, to ocean protection, mangrove restoration, and marine park management (Office of the Prime Minister, 2024). The Bahamas continues to use innovative nature-based financing and is pursuing capacity building support from capital market sources to conduct a full marine GHG inventory. Most recently, in September 2025 S&P Global Ratings (S&P) upgraded its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings for The Bahamas to ‘BB-’ from ‘B+’. This upgrade from S&P reflects the ongoing recovery of credit perception and marks a significant milestone in The Bahamas’ re-rating trajectory, building on positive changes from Moody’s (outlook revision to ‘Positive’ from ‘Stable’) and Fitch (‘BB-’ / ‘Stable’ inaugural credit rating), both of which were published in April 2025, and the country’s successful return to international capital markets in June 2025. It further demonstrates the authorities’ commitment to improved market disclosure and financial transparency (Office of the Prime Minister, 2025a). Additionally, public debt has declined with projections indicating that debt is likely to fall to 66.3% of GDP by the end of 2025, from 77.8% in 2020. The fiscal deficit has narrowed significantly, with projections indicating a fiscal surplus by 2026, supported by structural reforms, particularly in resilient energy systems and processes. 12 Source: Bahamas National Statistical Institute (2024b). Figure 2.3: GDP by Island Group 2015 – 2024 Key for Figures 2.3 Overall, The Bahamas’s economic profile is characterised by high service dependency, limited diversification, and elevated fiscal vulnerability to external shocks, including hurricanes, global recessions, and shifts in tourism demand. Figure 2.3 highlights how over the last decade the economic state has fluctuated due to these unpredicted events, and heavy reliance on service based industries. These circumstances heighten the country’s exposure to climate change and underscores the importance of integrating resilience into macroeconomic planning. The Bahamas faces distinctive challenges in delivering and maintaining infrastructure and services for small, dispersed populations. Essential facilities such as ports, airports, transport fleets, schools, and clinics must be provided in multiple remote locations, resulting in high per-capita costs and limited economies of scale. Transporting materials, deploying technical personnel, and sustaining assets across distant islands are logistically complex and financially demanding. These circumstances highlight the need for spatial diversification of investments and improved inter-island and intermodal connectivity, particularly maritime, air, and digital networks that link the Family Islands with major economic and administrative 13 centres. Such systems are crucial to reducing isolation, enhancing redundancy, and enabling equitable climate-resilient development across the archipelago. Climate The climate of The Bahamas is tropical marine, characterised by a wet season (November to April) and a dry season (May to October) (The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, 2021). Rainfall, temperature, and weather seasons have in recent years shown to have fluctuating trends attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The sub-sections that follow offer details regarding the characteristics and national trends of these factors. Temperature In centrally situated New Providence, winter temperatures seldom fall much below 60°F and usually reach about 75°F in the afternoon (the lowest recorded temperature was 41.4°F on 20 January 1981 ). In summer, temperatures usually fall to 78°F or less at night, and seldom rise above 90°F during the day. Winter temperatures are lower in more northerly islands than in New Providence, and about five degrees higher than in the south. In summer, temperatures tend to be similar all over The Bahamas (Bahamas Department of Meteorology, 2021). The peak temperature change presents itself in mid-summer during the month of July where the average daily maximum temperature has increased by an average of 2 degrees Celsius in 100 years. Additionally, there is a seasonal variation of temperature change between the north and south-western islands where the northern islands experience a higher rapid rate of warming (Government of The Bahamas, 2022b). Rainfall The north and central Bahamas receive on average 50 to 60 inches (1270 to 1524 millimeters) of rainfall annually. Comparatively, the southeast Bahamas receives on average 36 inches (914 millimeters) of rainfall annually (The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, 2021). During the dry season, the risk of drought increases along a southeastern gradient since the more southern islands already experience only half of the rainfall that falls in the more northern islands. Wet season During the summer months, temperatures reach 32 degrees Celsius (90 degrees Fahrenheit) by day. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms can occur for up to an hour and may be widespread. These systems include migratory areas of persistent rain, tropical waves and tropical cyclones. These thunderstorms may be tropical storms with winds up to 63 knots (73 miles per hour), or hurricanes with stronger winds (Bahamas Department of Meteorology, 2021). 14 Dry season From late October through early May, temperatures reach 24 degrees Celsius (76 degrees Fahrenheit) by day. The usual east and northeast trade winds in The Bahamas are often interrupted during this period by cold fronts moving south and southeast from North America. Although these cold fronts can bring rain, total winter rainfall days on average are significantly lower than during the wet season (The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, 2021). Natural hazards The Bahamas is highly exposed to a range of natural hazards, most notably hurricanes, tropical storms, wildfires, and droughts. These extreme events are the primary drivers of disaster-related losses across the archipelago that pose significant threats to its people, economy and ecosystems. Effects of Climate Change Temperature Historical records show that the temperature across the archipelago has been increasing, with the annual mean temperature having increased by 0.5℃ since 1960. The CMIP6 models included in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) projected the global mean surface temperature to increase by 0.6 – 0.9°C by the 2060s and 1.5 - 2.2°C by the 2090s (IPCC, 2021). The projected rate of warming is most rapid in the summer from June - August and September - November. Substantial increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights and decreases in the frequency of cold days and nights are projected to occur, with the most rapid changes occurring in the June - August period. Rainfall The seasonal effects of tropical cyclones have a pronounced effect on annual rainfall across The Bahamas. Additionally, winter storms flowing off the North American continent also impact rainfall during the normally dry period. However, this effect rarely extends into the central and southern Bahamas. Rainfall projections indicate decreases in rainfall for The Bahamas, because of prolonged dry seasons. The decreases in the months from March to August however are partly offset by overall increases in rainfall in the September-November period. Hurricanes and other extreme events Most recently, Hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017 and Dorian in 2019 have caused significant loss of life, evacuation of affected islands, and damage to infrastructure and the economy in billions of dollars. Hurricane Dorian alone is estimated to have caused over US$ 15 3 billion in damages. These hurricanes happened shortly after Hurricanes Joaquin (2015) and Matthew (2016) which also inflicted significant damage on The Bahamas. Hurricanes have had dramatic negative impacts on economic development across The Bahamas (as outlined in Table 2.1). Hurricane Dorian hovered over the northern Bahamas for nearly 40 hours, with wind speeds up to 185 mph and gusts up to 220 mph, decimating parts of the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama (NASA, n.d). In January 2020, the Government of The Bahamas reported the official deaths from Dorian as 71 persons and 282 persons missing (DRM Authority, 2025). Table 2.1: Recent hurricanes impacting The Bahamas Estimates of loss and Name of Hurricane Active dates Category damage (US$) 28 Sep – 15 Oct Joaquin 4 120+ Million 2015 28 Sep – 16 Oct Matthew 4 600 Million 2016 30 Aug – 13 Sep Irma 5 135 Million 2017 24 Aug – 8 Sep Dorian 5 3.4 Billion 2019 Sources: NOAA, 2021; IADB, 2019. The Bahamas has experienced a marked increase in severe weather events, many of which remain poorly documented outside of local media and social media. For example, in May 2024, New Providence was struck by a small hailstorm that surprised many residents and highlighted the growing vulnerability of the capital island to unusual convective weather (EyeWitness News, 2024). Meanwhile, on March 28, 2025, two large brush fires broke out in residential and commercial areas west of Freeport, Grand Bahama, prompting evacuations and threatening dozens of properties (Boulandier, 2025). Similarly, in East Grand Bahama that same month, a large forest fire destroyed utility poles, disrupted electricity services, and threatened multiple communities, with residents reporting extensive smoke and ash exposure (Maycock, 2025). In September 2025, Tropical Storm Imelda had effects across the entire Bahamas archipelago, causing mostly localised flooding across the southern, central and northern islands. Maximum winds reached approximately 40mph, with warnings of six to twelve inches of rain and surges of up to three feet in coastal areas (Bailey, 2025). Because of the 16 recent passing of the storm, there is no official loss and damage report as yet, but many sectors including, energy, transport, and critical infrastructure were impacted in the passing of this storm. Many businesses including government offices and schools in some parts of the country were made inaccessible and were forced to close, disrupting important systems. Some residents reported having to wade through knee-high water while others were unable to evacuate their homes or access their vehicles due to the flooding (Roberts, 2025). Extreme thunderstorms have also intensified. A microburst event in eastern New Providence occurred in September of 2025 and produced heavy rainfall, lightning, and destructive winds that toppled power lines, left neighborhoods without electricity, and blocked roadways (Campbell, 2025). These sudden, intense storms underline how infrastructure, transport, and housing in The Bahamas remain vulnerable to convective weather linked to rising atmospheric instability. Although these storms are often hard to track and document, the Department of Meteorology in The Bahamas places out alerts which help inform the public of severe weather. The visualisation done in Figure 2.4 is a representation of this data to show the amount of severe storms alerts. These alerts are linked to, but not limited to, strong winds and gusts, lightning, waterspout or tornadic activity, with localised flooding being possible when these alerts are active. Figure 2.4: Weather Warnings from 2022 to 2025. 17 Marine ecosystems are simultaneously under stress. In April 2024, NOAA and the International Coral Reef Initiative confirmed that the world had entered its fourth global coral bleaching event, driven by record ocean heat. The Bahamas was among the Caribbean states affected, with local environmental groups reporting widespread bleaching across reefs. Coral bleaching diminishes reef biodiversity, weakens fish populations, and directly threatens reef-based tourism and fisheries (NOAA, 2024). Sea level rise Sea level rise (SLR) and other oceanic climate changes will continue to drive salinisation, flooding, and coastal erosion. SLR will also affect human and ecological systems, including health, heritage, freshwater, biodiversity, agriculture, fisheries and other services. Increased heat in the upper layer of the ocean is also driving more intensive storms and greater rates of inundation, which, together with SLR, are already driving significant impacts to sensitive coastal and low-lying areas. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area and about 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience a sea level change within ±20% of the global mean (IPCC 2018). Under current projections, global mean sea level is expected to rise by 0.26 to 0.77 meters by 2100, depending on future emissions scenarios (IPCC AR6, 2021). GHG Emissions A national GHG inventory was not done for NDC 3.0 but will be conducted for the country’s Biennial Transparency Report, which will be published in 2026. The updated GHG inventory will be shared as an Annex to NDC 3.0. The Bahamas anticipates that this will be one of the first ever LULUCF mappings to include a full marine Greenhouse Gas Inventory. However, based on the country’s latest GHG report, published in 2022 alongside the Bahamas’ first Biennial Update Report (BUR1); total GHG emissions in The Bahamas rose from 5,074.09 Gg CO2-eq in 2001 to 6,264.39 Gg CO2-eq in 2018, which equals an increase by 23.5% (see Figure 2.5)1. During the same time period GHG emissions from the waste sector rose by 30.6%, from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector (including both emissions and removals) by 25.1%, and from the energy sector by 21.1%. Industrial Processes and Produce Use (IPPU) sector emissions fell by 71.1% (the 2018 GHG Inventory covered only lubricant use). 1 The previous GHG inventory of The Bahamas published as part of The Bahamas Second National Communication in 2014 presented GHG emissions for the year 2000, amounting to 702.82 Gg CO2-eq. when considering the gases CO2, CH4 and N2O. These had been estimated using the IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines for national GHG inventories and the GWPs from the IPCC’s 2nd Assessment Report. 18 The AFOLU and energy sectors dominated total national GHG emissions in The Bahamas, contributing 47.8% and 47.1%, respectively, to total emissions in 2018. The waste sector contributed 5.1% and the IPPU sector was less than 0.1% during the same year. Figure 2.5: Total GHG emissions by sector (2001-2018) Total CO2 emissions amounted to 5909.18 Gg in 2018, representing 94.3% of total GHG emissions. CH4 amounted to 11.68 Gg CO2-eq in 2018, representing 5.2 percent of the total and N2O to 0.12 Gg CO2-eq in 2018, representing 0.5% of the total. Likely drivers to The Bahamas’ GHG inventory emissions are the population and economic development. The increase in tourism has likely led to an increase in demand on fuel and transportation, thus affecting energy sector emissions. New Institutional Arrangements Since the last updated NDC in 2022, there have been new institutional arrangements. A brief overview of some of those arrangements can be found below, with more detail provided in the NDC Implementation section. 19 2022 ● Climate Change and Environmental Advisory Unit (CCEAU) The CCEAU provides advice to the Prime Minister, Cabinet, and other senior officials on climate finance, carbon credits, large-scale climate projects, renewable energy, and fossil fuel reduction. They also support initiatives related to the blue and green economy and youth empowerment within the climate change sector. Additionally, they are responsible for coordinating, implementing, and having oversight of inter-ministerial committees related to climate change, and responsibility for submitting national reports to the UNFCCC. ● National Emissions Registry (NER) Established in 2022 through the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act, the NER is responsible for the management, reporting, and tracking of greenhouse gas emissions within the country. The unit also develops greenhouse gas emissions reduction initiatives and incentives for The Bahamas and issues greenhouse gas emissions allocations. Additionally, the unit coordinates with the CCEAU for preparing national reports to the UNFCCC. 2025 ● National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) Though established in 1996, the NCCC is now formally under the carriage of the Climate Change and Environmental Advisory Unit as of 2025. The committee acts as a national coordinating body for climate change and ensures multi-sector engagement, reviews policies and strategies, and advises on implementation of the NDC and related obligations. ● High-Level Climate Policy Committee (HLCPC) Established in 2025, and co-chaired by the CCEAU and the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Authority, the HLCPC includes representatives at the Directors, Deputy Director, and Assistant Director level. The committee coordinates national climate response efforts by aligning climate finance, policy development, and project endorsement across multiple ministries and departments. They are also responsible for ensuring that there is consistent reporting to international bodies, facilitating inter-agency collaboration, and supporting projects aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to address adaptation, mitigation, & loss and damage. 20 3. Policy Framework The climate policy framework of The Bahamas is a reflection of the nation’s significant vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, particularly hurricanes, sea level rise, and coastal erosion. Despite contributing approximately 0.01% of global greenhouse emissions (Government of The Bahamas, 2022b), The Bahamas recognises that effective climate action must be thoroughly integrated into national development efforts, requiring coordination among ministries, departments, and agencies. Driven by national priorities, and supported by key instruments such as the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act, the Disaster Risk Management Act, and the National Energy Policy, The Bahamas has adopted a comprehensive approach to climate policy. These efforts are further reinforced by ongoing efforts in institutional strengthening and capacity building. The Climate Change and Environmental Advisory Unit (CCEAU) in the Office of the Prime Minister serves as the National Focal Point for climate negotiations, climate finance, and is responsible for coordinating the development and reporting of the NDC. Inter-agency coordination is facilitated through bodies such as the High Level Climate Policy Committee (HLCPC) and National Climate Change Committee (NCCC). These bodies ensure that projects and efforts synergise with the nation’s response to climate change, adaptation, loss & damage, and mitigation, as well as international commitments under the Paris Agreement. National Framework Acts and Bills that are related to climate and the environment were outlined in The Bahamas’ Updated NDC (2.0) 2022 (on pages 16-27). Since then, the following climate-related policies and instruments at a national level have been implemented: 2022 ● The Bahamas Agriculture and Marine Science Institute Act (2022) This Act establishes and governs The Bahamas Agriculture and Marine Science Institute (BAMSI), in addition to its administration by a board, incorporation, and other related matters. The Act provides a framework for BAMSI to provide instruction and conduct research in agriculture, marine, environmental, and other related disciplines. BAMSI also focuses on providing professional and technical qualifications, fostering entrepreneurship, and preparing students for careers in these fields. 22 ● Carbon Credit Trading Act (2022) This Act seeks to establish a regulatory framework under the Securities Commission for the trading of carbon credits in or from The Bahamas. The main objectives set out for this Act, are: ● The creation of a regulatory framework for the conduct of carbon credit business, including carbon trading exchanges, carbon credit verification bodies, and carbon trading registries. ● Defining the requirements for the Securities Commission's approval of the listing of carbon trading products on carbon trading exchanges. ● Define the registration requirements for persons wishing to engage or operate in carbon trading activities. ● Define mandatory requirements for registrants to maintain adequate financial resources and solvency. ● Define requirements for registrants to implement and maintain registration and data protection measures. ● Define requirements for registrants to comply with Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) prevention measures and standards. ● Establishing offenses, penalties, and sanctions for non-compliance with the Act. ● Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act (2022) The purpose of this Act is to respond to the Paris Agreement, and to contribute in the global fight against climate change. The main objectives of this Act are: ● To ensure The Bahamas' compliance with its obligations under the Paris Agreement, considering the common but differentiated responsibilities, respective capabilities, and flexibility provisions recognised by the UNFCCC for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to address climate change. ● To enable the Government to create and implement emission reduction initiatives and incentives to support the overall goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the NDCs. ● Enable the establishment of a market in The Bahamas for trading carbon credits through setting administrative roles and governing principles. ● The establishment of the National Emissions Registry (NER). 23 ● Disaster Risk Management Act (2022) This Act provides a comprehensive framework for proactive disaster risk management. Through the establishment of the Disaster Risk Management Authority, it aims to lessen the socio-economic and environmental impacts and risk of disasters, especially those related to climate change. Moreover, it mandates the development of a National Disaster Risk Management Policy and Comprehensive Financial Strategy for Disaster Risk Management. Other key provisions of the legislation include, the formation and maintenance of a National Disaster Risk Information System, National Early Warning System, Disaster Emergency and Disaster Prevention Fund, and an Inter-Ministerial Committee on Disaster Risk Management. ● National Investment Funds Act (2022) The purpose of this Act is to repeal the previous Sovereign Wealth Fund Act, 2016 and establish a National Investment Fund for specific purposes. As it relates to climate, the fund seeks to provide domestic, cultural, and societal advancements in the blue, green, and orange economies of The Bahamas. The Act also provides for the management of the natural resource wealth of The Bahamas and allows funds to receive revenue derived from carbon credits trading. ● The Bahamas Climate Spending Report (Ministry of Finance, 2022) The Bahamas intensified its commitment to climate transition and disaster resilience, recognising the critical link between environmental protection, fiscal sustainability, and national development. A significant milestone in this journey was the publication of the first Climate Spending Report in the 2021–2022 fiscal year, which estimated government expenditures on climate change and disaster risk management using an approved budget documentation (Estimates 2021–2022). This report marked the beginning of a more transparent and systematic approach to understanding climate-relevant spending in both recurrent and capital budgets. By tracing these expenditures, the Government aimed not only to refine climate policies but also to evaluate the effectiveness of investments targeting increasing climate resilience. The Climate Spending Report revealed that in 2021–2022, The Bahamas intended to allocate approximately $72.2 million (2.3% of the total budget) to climate change and $54.4 million (1.7%) to disaster risk management. The broader function of environmental protection, which encompasses both climate change and disaster risk management, was allocated a total of $118.1 million, or about 3.7% of the budget, 24 with expenditures weighted more heavily toward climate change activities. Disaggregating this allocation, roughly 60% was directed toward climate change management and 40% to disaster risk management, supporting the interlinked nature of these priorities. Importantly, the 2021–2022 report also introduced and endorsed the Climate and Disaster Budget Tagging Methodology, allowing the Government to better identify, manage, and report climate and disaster-related expenditures. Through budget tagging, The Bahamas is expected to benefit from: ● Greater ability to monitor, manage, prioritise, and report on climate-smart and disaster-resilient investments, thereby strengthening public investment management and aligning with ongoing public financial management reforms; ● Deepen understanding of spending on climate related activities and disasters by phase (before and after events), sector, and programme; ● Enhance access and mobilisation of climate and disaster finance for long-term resilience. The report highlighted challenges in programme classification and data traceability, noting that existing programme objectives in budget documents are sometimes limited for facilitating robust tagging. It is further argued that as a small island developing state, it is nearly impossible to separate expenditure on development and expenditure on climate action. However, there was a clear commitment to rationalise the Chart of Accounts, ensuring that climate and disaster expenditures can be validated at each budget level and directly linked to outcomes in these relevant areas. 2023 ● Public Finance Management Act (2023) This Act includes provisions that strengthen the country’s ability to address climate change and environmental risks through improved fiscal governance. By enhancing accountability, transparency, and long-term planning in public finance, the Act promotes a more effective allocation of resources to climate and disaster risk mitigation, response, and management. 2024 ● Electricity Act (2024) The main purpose of this Act is to modernise and consolidate the law relating to the supply of electricity in The Bahamas. This Act repeals the Electricity Act, Chapter 194 25 and is primarily aimed at creating an electricity regime which recognises that safe, cost-effective, reliable, and environmentally sustainable electricity is vital to the economic and social welfare of The Bahamas. It encourages diversification in the generation, transmission, distribution and supply of electricity, promotes energy efficiency (EE), energy conservation, and the development and use of renewable energy resources and technologies. Additional objectives of this Act include securing the long-term energy security of The Bahamas through the establishment of a legal and regulatory framework and establishing an electricity sector policy for the supply of electricity throughout The Bahamas consistent and in accordance with the goals of the national energy policy. ● Environmental Planning and Protection (Amendment) Act (2024) With the foundation of the Environmental Planning and Protection Act, 2019, the purpose of this amendment is to strengthen the country’s environmental governance framework by introducing clearer definitions, stricter enforcement, and streamlined procedures. 2025 ● Environmental Health Services (Amendment) Act (2025) The purpose of this Act is to empower the Director to be able to issue discontinuation orders to stop contaminant or pollution emissions and to impose fixed penalties for non-compliance. It also allows for the issuance of immediate penalties for pollution caused by foreign-owned vessels or cruise ships. ● Emissions Reductions Initiatives and Incentives Regulations (2025) These Regulations are enacted pursuant to the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act, 2022. The purpose of these Regulations are to establish the framework for implementation and participation of emission reduction initiatives and incentives, and set the procedures and reporting obligations for activity data and emission allocations. ● Mining Act 2025 The purpose of this Act is to provide a legal and institutional framework to regulate all mineral prospecting and mining activities in The Bahamas. Through the establishment of the Department of Mining, it seeks to ensure responsible resource management and economic benefit for the country while enforcing environmental 26 protections. The Act guarantees that the government has full ownership and control of all mineral resources, requiring all mining operations to acquire appropriate licenses and approvals before proceeding. Additionally, the legislation prioritises local participation by requiring companies to hire Bahamian citizens and utilise local goods and services. ● The Bahamas National Energy Policy 2025 - 2030 (2025) Building on the foundation of the previous National Energy Policy 2013-2033, the National Energy Policy 2025-2030 outlines clear and updated Strategic Aims and Policy Objectives for the energy sector. It is a reflection of the current developments in the energy sector at both national and international levels. This Policy aims to encourage the further development of electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and supply (GTDS) services throughout The Bahamas. It also seeks to promote cost-effective pricing for such services, emphasises energy efficiency and conservation, and facilitates scaled-up access to energy services across the archipelago. International Reports and Commitments The main climate-related reports and commitments at the international level include: 2021 ● The Bahamas National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA) The NDPBA was conducted in 2020 by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). The assessment was designed to offer a sustainable system for understanding, updating, accessing, and applying critical risk information in decision-making. It provided necessary tools, scientific data, and evidence-based practices to support disaster risk reduction efforts, including a Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA), which considered hazard exposures, vulnerability, island capacity, and logistics capacity. PDC’s unique Disaster Management Analysis (DMA) was then employed to review findings, contextualise the RVA, and offer recommendations designed to increase resilience and reduce disaster risk (PDC, 2021). 2022 ● The Bahamas Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 2.0) The Government of The Bahamas submitted its Updated NDC to the UNFCCC in November 2022, in fulfillment of its commitment under the Paris Agreement. This 27 update was developed through a participatory, multi-stakeholder, and cross-sectoral process, aligned with national policies including, the National Energy Policy (2013–2033), the 2005 National Policy for the Adaptation to Climate Change, and the draft National Development Plan. Despite contributing only 0.01% of global GHG emissions, The Bahamas committed to the following targets by 2030: ● Reduce economy-wide GHG emissions by 30% below the Business-as-Usual (BaU) scenario (equivalent to a reduction of 2,125 GgCO₂e). ● Achieve at least 30% renewable energy in the national energy mix. ● Ensure 35% of vehicle sales are electric and 15% are hybrid by 2030. These targets focus on five priority sectors: Energy, Transport, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Land-Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF), and Waste. The longer-term ambition includes achieving net-zero emissions from the LULUCF sector by 2045. Implementation will be supported by improved Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) systems and enabling legislation such as the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act. Recognising its acute vulnerability as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), The Bahamas’ Updated NDC (2.0) expands adaptation ambition with strategic 2030 goals to: ● Strengthen national preparedness and response to climate-related hazards. ● Strengthen national regulatory frameworks and leverage funding for adaptation. ● Protect human health and ensure food and water security. ● Improve ecosystem management and promote nature-based solutions. ● Enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure and diversify the energy system. ● Mainstream climate change education, awareness, and monitoring across sectors. These measures build on lessons from past extreme events such as Hurricane Dorian (2019), which caused unprecedented loss and damage. These measures are also contingent upon receipt of international finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building. NDC 2.0 emphasises that successful delivery is conditional on scaled-up international support, including through the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, bilateral and 28 multilateral partnerships, and private sector engagement. It also called for strengthened institutional arrangements to support national climate change action, reflected in the establishment of the Climate Change Environmental Advisory Unit (CCEAU) (Government of The Bahamas, 2022b). ● First Biennial Update Report (BUR1) The Bahamas submitted its Biennial Update Report (BUR) in 2022. It highlighted The Bahamas' extreme vulnerability as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) to climate change, despite its minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The country re-iterated its commitment of a 30% economy-wide GHG emission reduction by 2030, as outlined in its Updated Nationally Determined Contribution 2022 (NDC 2.0). The BUR1 outlines 41 specific mitigation actions, focusing on the energy, transportation, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), waste, and Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sectors. It projects that a "Mitigation" scenario will result in a 16% reduction from the 2030 baseline, falling short of the 30% NDC target. An "Ambitious Mitigation" scenario, however, could achieve the target. The report also addresses next steps for implementation of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) and the need for external financial and technical support for The Bahamas to implement its climate goals (Government of The Bahamas, 2022a). 2024 ● The Third National Communication (NC3) The Bahamas submitted its Third National Communication (NC3) to the UNFCCC in 2024. The NC3 serves as a comprehensive national report on the state of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation measures. It reaffirms The Bahamas’ commitment to a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, consistent with the BUR1, and highlights the country’s vulnerability to climate risks as a SIDS. The report also addresses the need for international financial and technical support to achieve these goals (Government of The Bahamas, 2024b). Within the NC3, several sections are especially relevant for the current NDC and warrant focused highlighting including: Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change 29 This section outlines the vulnerabilities of priority sectors such as agriculture, natural resources, energy, human health, human settlements and infrastructure, tourism, transport, water resources, and disaster management, and proposes sector-specific adaptation responses. These include improved water resource management, climate-resilient agriculture, strengthened building codes, enhanced disaster preparedness, and greater ecosystem protection. The assessment also emphasises cross-sectoral actions such as public awareness, knowledge exchange, and targeted investment in resilience. Development and Transfer of Environmentally Sound Technologies (EST) In conducting a Technology Needs Assessment (TNA), The Bahamas identified four priority sectors: meteorology, education, waste, and forestry. Environmentally sound technologies are expected to strengthen monitoring, improve data management, and enhance resource efficiency while supporting climate-smart practices and innovation in these areas. Research and Systematic Observation (RSO) Research and monitoring are recognised as critical to reducing uncertainty and improving decision-making. Current initiatives include studies on the impacts of climate change on tourism, health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and non-economic loss and damage, as well as storm surge modeling. Advancing this work will require sustained investment in observation systems, deeper regional partnerships, and development of a national framework inclusive of RSO. Education, Training and Public Awareness The NC3 documents progress in embedding climate change into the education system from primary through tertiary levels. It also notes the role of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and government agencies in supporting informal learning. Training programmes have strengthened capacity in areas such as greenhouse gas inventories, mitigation modeling, and international negotiations, while youth-focused initiatives have expanded awareness and participation. These efforts aim to ensure that knowledge of climate change reaches all levels of society. Capacity Building Capacity needs are identified at the individual, institutional, and systemic levels. Priority areas include carbon auditing and budgeting, sustainable planning, renewable energy, low-carbon procurement, and green economic 30 planning. Strengthening capacity in these areas is essential to embedding climate considerations across governance, improving institutional performance, and enabling effective climate action. Gender and Climate Change The NC3 introduces, for the first time, a dedicated chapter on gender and climate change, recognising that existing national policies have historically been gender neutral. It highlights the ways in which structural inequalities shape disproportionate vulnerabilities, and stresses the importance of gender mainstreaming in adaptation and mitigation strategies. An intersectional approach that considers factors such as age, ethnicity, disability, and socio-economic status is promoted to ensure inclusive and equitable outcomes in climate action. 2025 ● Biennial Update Report (BUR) Technical Analysis Report As part of the UNFCCC’s International Consultations and Analysis (ICA) process, The Bahamas’ BUR1 was reviewed by experts in October 2023 to increase transparency and help improve future reports through capacity building support. The report notes that while notable efforts have been made in key sectors such as energy and transport, improvements can be made with respect to data transparency, methodological consistency, and baseline and emission reduction projections. The analysis highlights the country’s needs for support in GHG inventory preparation, the MRV process, and the tracking and reporting of climate finance flows, among others (UNFCCC, 2025a). ● Biennial Update Report (BUR) Facilitative Sharing of Views (FSV) Report The Bahamas concluded its first round of the ICA process by successfully undergoing the FSV for its BUR1. During this exchange, the country provided insight on the main drivers for emission trends, as well as the efforts being made in the country to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030, leading to the ultimate goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The Bahamas also highlighted the need for international support for over USD $4 billion to implement its fully conditional NDC, with special emphasis placed on the need for funding to support adaptation. Despite these challenges, efforts to strengthen institutional arrangements include a centralised MRV system, the establishment of the National Emissions Registry, and the enactment of new national climate change legislation (UNFCCC, 2025b). 31 ● Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) The Bahamas is developing the country’s first Biennial Transparency Report. This document is a requirement under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), and must be submitted every two years. According to UNFCCC, this report should include information on The Bahamas’ National Inventory Report (NIR), the country’s progress towards NDCs, policies and measures, climate change impacts and adaptation, status of development on finances, technology, knowledge-transfer, capacity-building support, capacity-building needs and areas of improvement. The report is slated to be completed in 2026. 32 4. NDC Development Process NDC Development Overview The development of The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 was led by the Government of The Bahamas through the Climate Change and Environmental Advisory Unit (CCEAU) under the Office of the Prime Minister. The CCEAU is the technical advisory arm that addresses matters related to climate change and the environment in The Bahamas, and acts as the National Focal Point for the UNFCCC in country. The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 was created in collaboration with the Caribbean Cooperative MRV Hub, which is a regional institution that supports countries in their efforts to improve MRV systems, build Paris Agreement reporting capabilities, and enhance their domestic evidence-based policymaking. The Caribbean Cooperative MRV Hub assisted with emissions and energy modeling utilising the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) program, as well as measuring the progress on the mitigation actions and targets in the NDC 2.0 and the development of new ones. Additionally, a range of stakeholders from various sectors were engaged to support in data collection and verification, either through the National Emissions Registry’s (NER) online platform, or by means of direct correspondence including virtual meetings and written communication. Further mitigation related information was provided by national energy providers, government agencies, and representatives from the transportation and forestry sectors. Relative to adaptation, the development of this section was supported by information gathered from stakeholders involved in adaptation, in addition to information sourced from national adaptation documents and projects including, but not limited to: the Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP) being executed by the Ministry of Health, The Bahamas Debt Conversion Project for Marine Conservation, Race for Resilience (R4R) Programme, and the development of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) through the GCF. These documents and projects will assist in advancing adaptation action within the country, and aid in the development of adaptation indicators. The entities that were involved in stakeholder engagement, as well as the data provided, are outlined below. Energy Providers During the NDC development process, The Bahamas received data from several energy providers that operate throughout the archipelago including the main utility providers, 34 Bahamas Power and Light (BPL), Grand Bahama Power Company (GBPC). Other independently powered resorts, marinas and islands operating in The Bahamas also provided data. The data provided by these energy providers were beneficial for understanding and analysing The Bahamas’ emissions from 2019 to 2024. This data was also used to model future emissions and took into account the decommissioning of facilities, as well as the use of alternative fuels and renewable energy sources. This data informed NDC 3.0’s mitigation actions and targets and shaped The Bahamas’ mitigation strategy for 2035. Fuel Suppliers Three fuel suppliers provided data for this NDC process. These stakeholders’ data were beneficial in understanding The Bahamas’ fuel imports in 2024 and provided accuracy in assessing The Bahamas’ progress towards energy independence. Additional national fuel imports for retro-active years (2022-2024) was collected from the Annual Foreign Trade Statistics Report produced by the Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI). Hotels Given that tourism is the predominant economic driver in The Bahamas, much of the energy used within the country stems from the operation of hotels. Given this context, data was collected from hotels with regard to their energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Seven major hotels shared data which provided insights into any energy efficient or renewable energy technologies integrated into these hotels’ operations. This data has been used to create mitigation actions for NDC 3.0 and to establish the overall mitigation goal for The Bahamas by 2035. Car Dealerships and Major Transportation Companies As part of the data collection process, the Government of The Bahamas contacted key stakeholders in the transportation sector to obtain data on vehicle usage and sales. Data was obtained from five car dealerships and three major transportation companies and has been beneficial for determining mitigation actions and co-benefits for NDC 3.0. Customs Department In addition to requesting data from car dealerships and major transportation companies, data on car imports were requested from The Bahamas Customs and Excise Department. The data provided by this department was helpful in analysing internal combustion engine (ICE), hybrid, and electric vehicle (EV) imports into the country from 2019 to 2024. In addition, this data was utilised in determining 2019 to 2024 emissions, and modeling future emissions from the transportation sector. 35 Road Traffic Department The Road Traffic Department provided disaggregated data for newly registered vehicles between 2019 to 2024. This data was utilised for vehicle analysis and for developing emissions models and projections for the transportation sector in the LEAP software. Ministry of Energy and Transport The Ministry of Energy and Transport provided information related to the planned installments of utility-scale renewable energy systems across the archipelago, as well as updates on Ministry relevant mitigation actions that are outlined in the Updated NDC (NDC 2.0). This information was utilised to develop emissions models in LEAP, and to measure the country’s progress towards those mitigation actions outlined in NDC 2.0. Forestry Unit The Forestry Unit provided information related to restoration, reforestation, and forest management projects occurring in the country between 2019-2025. Timelines for the completion of these projects were also provided as guidance for the development of NDC 3.0. This information aided in updating the LULUCF sector as it relates to the associated mitigation actions and adaptation co-benefits (e.g. enhanced coastal protection). This data offers an enhanced understanding of nature-based emission offsets that occur within the country. National Committees Moreover, stakeholder engagement was conducted with the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) and the Bahamas National Youth Committee (BNYC) as part of the development of NDC 3.0. The NCCC is composed of public and private sector professionals who work in the areas of mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation. As a part of stakeholder engagement, the NCCC was provided with context for those adaptation actions and mitigation actions outlined in NDC 2.0. Thereafter, short surveys (contained in Annex A) were provided to NCCC members for their completion in real time. Additionally, the surveys were emailed to NCCC members to further facilitate stakeholder feedback and contributions. The insights obtained from the adaptation surveys were incorporated into the 3 Horizons Tables (see Adaptation Chapter: Tables 7.1, 7.2 and 7.3). Moreover, their responses for the adaptation survey assisted in the identification of new adaptation actions for NDC 3.0. The insights obtained from the mitigation survey were incorporated into the Mitigation Chapter, and assisted in efforts to identify mitigation actions for NDC 3.0. The BNYC is a committee of youth who convey the needs and ideas of the youth of The Bahamas. The primary role of this committee is to assist the Climate Change Youth 36 Ambassadors in achieving the goals and objectives outlined in their platform. All members of this committee are Bahamians between the ages of 16 and 25 who serve on a voluntary basis. Engaging with the NCCC and BNYC allowed the developers of NDC 3.0 to obtain feedback on previous and newly proposed mitigation and adaptation actions to support the completion of this document. Overview of Changes from NDC 2.0 The NDC 3.0 builds on the Updated NDC (2022), as well as existing legislation and projects that support the country’s climate goals. Since the previous NDC, significant efforts have been made, including the enactment of legislation to support the national shift to renewable energy, and to increase access to climate finance. NDC 3.0 distinguishes itself from NDC 2.0 in several key respects. Most notably, this NDC was prepared primarily utilising in-country expertise and technical officers, under the leadership of the CCEAU. In contrast, previous NDCs were predominantly prepared by external consultants. As a comprehensive and nationally grounded document, the NDC 3.0 provides deeper articulation of the country’s perspectives and priorities from a local point of view, as is evident from the Adaptation and NDC Financing chapters. In regards to adaptation, NDC 3.0 reflects the country’s stance on the importance and the urgent need for concentrated adaptation efforts and increased financing. This document paints a clearer narrative of adaptation in the country, distinguishes the country’s actions from capacities, and identifies new (2031-2035) adaptation actions based on the progress of NDC 2.0’s (pre-2030) adaptations actions. These efforts reflect the country’s position that adaptation is a top national priority. Additionally, NDC 3.0 places greater emphasis on NDC Financing, expanding on the significance of climate finance for the nation, and provides a more contextualised understanding of its local application. This is intended to reflect and reinforce the country’s stance on the dire importance of climate finance for SIDS like The Bahamas. It is envisaged that Article 6 cooperative approaches will drive a significant amount of the enhanced conditional ambition. As The Bahamas transitions from NDC 2.0 to NDC 3.0, reassessing the country’s progress towards its NDC 2.0 goals has revealed opportunities to celebrate progress and areas for improvements ahead of 2030. For example, regarding the country’s commitment to achieve at least 30% renewable energy in the national energy mix by 2030; the country is projected to not only achieve, but potentially exceed this target. This success can be attributed to 37 policy decisions made by the Government and implemented by the Ministry of Energy and Transport, which have advanced utility-scale solar energy penetration on a national level. Table 4.1: Comparative Analysis of Key Elements between NDC 2.0 and NDC 3.0 Element NDC 2.0 NDC 3.0 No models were created for NDC 2.0. The model was updated to reflect Model information was obtained from more recent information, but the country’s BUR1. Additionally, it was calculations were done from a LEAP Modelling one model with specific information from top-down approach where The 3 regions (New Providence, Grand Bahamas was considered as one Bahama, Family Islands) but calculated country, rather than from region for The Bahamas as one region. specific levels. Energy (Energy Demand, IPCC sectors covered in IPPU, Agriculture, LULUCF, Waste and Electricity Generation), Transport, Mitigation Energy. Waste, LULUCF, and IPPU The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 identified 21 mitigation actions. The actions The Bahamas’ NDC 2.0 identified 41 were streamlined based on mitigation actions that span across the 5 national priority and all actions Mitigation IPCC sectors. Mitigation actions were modelled except for modelled covered three sectors Energy, mitigation actions in the IPPU LULUCF and Waste sector. The actions in the electricity generation sector were grouped per island. The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 identifies The Bahamas’ NDC 2.0 identified 47 25 adaptation actions. These adaptation actions, based on one actions were built upon actions Adaptation overarching target and seven identified in NDC 2.0 and objectives/components. streamlined with national priorities. The mitigation and adaptation The mitigation and adaptation targets targets presented in the NDC 3.0 presented in the NDC 2.0 were are conditional upon receiving conditional upon receiving international NDC Financing international support for support for technology transfer, technology transfer, capacity-building and financial capacity-building and financial resources. resources. 38 The Bahamas NDC 3.0 focuses The Bahamas NDC 2.0 focused on the on the gaps, opportunities and gaps, opportunities and needs for five needs of five priority sectors in priority sectors in mitigation which were mitigation and five priority sectors Energy, Transportation, IPPU, LULUCF in adaptation. For mitigation, the Gaps, Opportunities and and Waste. priority sectors are Energy, Needs Transportation, IPPU, LULUCF An assessment of gaps, opportunities and Waste. The five priority and needs was conducted for sectors for adaptation are Coastal adaptation, however priority sectors and Marine Resources, were not identified. Agriculture, Tourism, Critical Infrastructure, and Health. 39 5. Gaps, Opportunities and Needs for Climate Action This section outlines the main gaps, opportunities, and needs that underpin national climate action. It identifies existing social, economic, and environmental gaps associated with both mitigation and adaptation efforts through a multi-sectoral analysis, aligning these gaps with potential or existing opportunities that can fill them. It also examines those opportunities to determine what needs must be satisfied before they can be effectively realised. These needs are categorised as human resource, financial, or technical to provide a detailed overview of how efforts can be supported in each of the priority sectors. Ten sectors are brought into focus, specifically five mitigation sectors: (1) Energy; (2) Transportation; (3) IPPU; (4) LULUCF; and (5) Waste, and five adaptation areas: (1) Coastal and Marine Resources; (2) Agriculture; (3) Tourism; (4) Critical Infrastructure; and (5) Health. The first four adaptation areas are directly linked to the Sectoral Adaptation Plans (SAPs) that will be the focus of the upcoming National Adaptation Plan (NAP), while Health is drawn from the 2024 HNAP. Highlighting the sector-specific gaps, opportunities and needs provides a comprehensive basis guiding national climate action toward meeting The Bahamas’ mitigation and adaptation targets. For each of these sectors, the gaps, opportunities, and needs are detailed in comprehensive tables (see Annex B), but the main insights are outlined below: Mitigation The multi-sectoral analysis of The Bahamas’ five IPCC mitigation sectors demonstrates that while significant opportunities exist for reducing emissions, these are constrained by persistent gaps in data availability, institutional coordination, technical capacity and financial resources. The Bahamas’ emissions profile is dominated by Energy, Transport and Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), while Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) and Waste contribute a smaller, but still material, share of national GHG emissions. The projections for NDC 3.0 indicate that The Bahamas has made notable progress in the Energy and Transport sectors toward achieving its NDC 2.0 targets. Additionally, efforts are currently underway in the LULUCF sector to assess and identify further opportunities for emissions reductions. Increased financial contributions. The LULUCF sector remains highly uncertain due to data deficiencies, limited capacity to undertake comprehensive accounting, and monitoring, therefore making planning difficult. 41 Gaps: ● Social: Public awareness of mitigation actions, measures and policies, though improving, remains limited, particularly regarding energy efficiency, waste reduction, and the adoption of low-carbon technologies. Behavioural barriers, cultural practices, and resistance to lifestyle changes, (such as waste separation or shifts in modes of transportation) continue to slow the uptake of proposed mitigation measures. ● Economic: The high upfront costs of renewable energy, energy efficient transport fleets, waste-to-energy facilities, and efforts to protect and enhance carbon sinks are compounded by The Bahamas’ small market size, its vast archipelagic make-up, import dependency, and vulnerability to global fuel price volatility. Despite its classification as a high-income country, the economy is mainly dependent on the tourism industry, an inherently volatile sector highly susceptible to external shocks including extreme weather events like hurricanes, global economic downturns or pandemics. This vulnerability was starkly demonstrated by Hurricane Dorian, which struck in 2019 and resulted in a 25% loss to the GDP which was further compounded during the COVID-19 pandemic, when The Bahamas experienced a 23.5% GDP contraction in 2020 (Inter-American Development Bank, 2019). Limited economic diversification also poses challenges for accessing financing in other sectors. Moreover, where economic incentives can be engaged they are sometimes insufficient or inconsistently applied. ● Environmental: Incomplete and inconsistent data remain a critical constraint. The Bahamas faces unique challenges in emissions monitoring and accounting due to its geography: while land area covers approximately 13, 939 km2, it is dispersed across an ocean space of over 470,000 km2, meaning land represents only 3% of the total area. This distribution complicates the acquisition of relevant data for emissions estimates and environmental monitoring. The NC3 highlights gaps in baseline emissions inventories across multiple sectors, most acutely in IPPU and waste. Enhanced Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems are critical to support effective planning and progress tracking. In the LULUCF sector, deforestation pressures, land degradation, increasing extreme weather events driven by climate change (i.e. hurricanes and heatwaves), and regulatory loopholes could hinder effective mitigation efforts in this sector. ● Technical: The Bahamas’ renewable energy potential is limited by the lack of consistent wind and other renewable resources when compared to other Caribbean nations. As such, renewable energy expansion relies heavily on solar power and 42 innovation in energy storage. In addition, limited landmass and the geographic dispersion of the islands poses major technical challenges. The lack of interconnectivity among islands prevents the establishment of a unified national grid, increases infrastructure costs, and limits the efficiency of renewable energy deployment and energy sharing across the archipelago. Upfront costs to deliver technical pilots for innovative energy solutions, such as Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), also poses a challenge for this sector. Opportunities: ● Social: Expanding climate education and vocational training offers an avenue to build a culture of low-carbon transition across sectors. Targeted training for technicians in renewable energy systems, efficient transport technologies, and refrigerant management links directly to persistent gaps. ● Economic: The renewable energy potential of The Bahamas presents significant potential to diversify the economy, create employment, and stabilise energy prices. Access to climate finance, carbon markets, debt-for-nature swaps, and regional partnerships create opportunities for scaling investments. The waste sector also holds promise for developing circular economy industries, with waste-to-energy and composting projects providing both mitigation and economic co-benefits. ● Environmental: Ecosystem protection and enhancement in the LULUCF sector can provide dual mitigation and adaptation benefits. Improved MRV frameworks, already being piloted through Global Environment Facility (GEF)-supported transparency initiatives, in addition to the National Emissions Registry (NER) online platform, create opportunities to build robust emissions inventories that will improve accountability and unlock climate finance. Needs: ● Human Resources: Strengthening technical expertise in MRV, renewable energy, and refrigerant management is essential. Sectoral ministries and agencies require trained staff to manage data, enforce regulations, and implement low-carbon technologies. ● Financial: Scaling renewable energy, improving transport systems, deploying waste-to-energy infrastructure, and enhancing efforts in the LULUCF sector will require concessional finance, targeted subsidies, and innovative blended finance mechanisms. 43 ● Technical: The establishment of a complete national MRV System, with sector-specific protocols, to manage the national GHG inventory is critical. Updated regulatory frameworks for refrigerants, waste management, and the LULUCF sector are also necessary to support mitigation pathways. Adaptation The adaptation priorities of The Bahamas are shifting to align with the NAP that is under development. As such, the adaptation contribution of this NDC focuses on five key sectors: Coastal and Marine Resources, Agriculture, Tourism, Critical Infrastructure, and Health. Together, these sectors represent both the greatest vulnerabilities of the archipelago and the areas where adaptation action can yield the most immediate benefits for livelihoods, ecosystems, and long-term sustainability. The NC3 confirms that while progress has been made in policy development and awareness, adaptation efforts remain underfunded, fragmented, and constrained by geography (Government of The Bahamas, 2024b). Gaps: ● Social: Coastal communities, Family Island residents, women, youth, the elderly, and persons with disabilities face disproportionate risks. Limited public understanding of climate-health risks, unsustainable agricultural practices, and insufficient integration of local and traditional knowledge into planning exacerbate these vulnerabilities. ● Economic: Adaptation investments remain undercosted and underfunded. Infrastructure resilience projects face high capital requirements, while agriculture and tourism lack sufficient resilience measures and safety nets against climate shocks. Insurance penetration is low, particularly for vulnerable households and small enterprises. ● Environmental: Natural buffers such as coral reefs and mangroves continue to degrade, undermining coastal protection. Health facilities and other critical infrastructure are located in high-risk zones and lack resilience to storms and flooding. Outdated adaptation policies and weak enforcement of environmental regulations further constrain effectiveness. Opportunities: ● Social: Community-based adaptation, participatory planning, and environmental education offer low-cost, high-impact avenues for building resilience. The recently approved HNAP provides a structured framework for community engagement and the 44 integration of climate considerations into healthcare delivery. ● Economic: International climate finance, debt-for-nature swaps, and donor partnerships present opportunities to expand adaptation investments. Tourism, as a cornerstone of the economy, offers potential for mainstreaming climate resilience into business models, creating both economic and reputational benefits. ● Environmental: Ecosystem-based adaptation, such as mangrove restoration, coral reef rehabilitation, and the integration of hazard mapping into planning, offers co-benefits for biodiversity, fisheries, and tourism. Upgrading health facilities, infrastructure, and agricultural practices to climate-resilient standards can significantly reduce risks. Needs: ● Human Resource: Expanded training for engineers, health professionals, farmers, and coastal managers is essential. Adaptation requires cross-disciplinary expertise in GIS mapping, hazard assessment, and climate-health surveillance to support comprehensive monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) systems. ● Financial: Dedicated internal adaptation funds and financing strategies, scaled-up direct access to international financing, and innovative risk-pooling and insurance instruments informed by The Bahamas’ unique geography are needed to address the funding shortfall. ● Technical: Updated hazard and vulnerability mapping, enforcement of updated building codes, resilient design standards, and climate-informed environmental impact assessments are necessary to operationalise adaptation. The analysis reveals that while both mitigation and adaptation face financial, technical, and institutional constraints, the nature of these constraints differs. Mitigation progress is primarily hindered by limited technical and institutional capacity, most notably gaps in data availability and weak MRV systems, which create challenges for tracking and reporting emissions reductions. Adaptation, however, suffers from a more acute financing gap. According to the BUR1, a summary of The Bahamas’ climate finance flows from 2010-2020 revealed that of the total climate finance inflows over that period (~$155M) less than 10% funded adaptation-focused activities (Government of The Bahamas, 2022a). Adaptation actions remain systematically undercosted and underfunded. Moreover, the geographic realities of The Bahamas as an archipelago introduce additional logistical costs and strain 45 limited human resources that are already spread thin across many islands and projects. Addressing these challenges requires a balanced approach: scaling up technical and institutional capacity to enable effective climate action while simultaneously prioritising the mobilisation of adaptation finance to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems from the accelerating impacts of climate change. 46 6. Mitigation The Bahamas continues to advance its transition toward a low-carbon and climate-resilient future through strengthened national policies, institutional reform, and renewed ambition. Considerable progress has been made toward achieving its overarching 2030 reduction goals and contributing to the global carbon neutrality objective by 2050. Building on the progress communicated in its NDC 2.0, The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 demonstrates enhanced ambition through these new targets for 2035: ● Having at least 45% of renewables in the national energy mix by 2035, building on the previous 30% by 2030 target outlined in the Updated NDC (2022) and; ● Reducing national GHG emissions by 30% relative to 2010 GHG emissions level, revised from the business-as-usual (BaU) and 2010 levels referenced in the previous NDC and; ● Achieve 50% of new vehicle sales as EVs and 30% as Hybrid by 2035, building on the previous 35% EVs and 15% Hybrid by 2030 in the Updated NDC (2022). The Government recognises that effective coordination is essential for sustained progress to achieve the NDC Mitigation Targets. This led to the establishment of the Climate Change and Environmental Advisory Unit (CCEAU), responsible for leading climate change coordinating activities and reporting requirements to the UNFCCC. Additionally, the Ministry of Energy and Transport (MOET) was established, with responsibility for coordinating national energy and transport reforms. Since the establishment of MOET, several key actions have been undertaken, including the modernisation of the energy system through the expansion of utility-scale solar projects across multiple islands and the upgrading of transmission and distribution networks. Decarbonisation of the transport sector has also been accelerated through the introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles and opportunities for development of a public transportation system. Complementary efforts to improve energy efficiency are underway, including the implementation of appliance standards and labelling programmes, incentives for the import and use of energy-efficient equipment through the Green Choice Exemption Programme, and energy audits across public buildings. These actions collectively aim to reduce national energy demand, lower emissions in the residential and commercial sectors, and deliver cost savings to Bahamians. The enabling environment has been further strengthened through the enactment of the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act 2022, which establishes the National Emissions Registry (NER) which is mandated to manage, track and report greenhouse gas emissions through an online registry and develop greenhouse gas emission reduction 48 initiatives and incentives. Supporting this mandate is the Emissions Reduction Initiatives and Incentives Regulations 2025, which defines the procedures for participation in emissions reduction activities and incentive mechanisms within the NER. The NER’s online platform serves as the official national system for recording the issuance and transfer of carbon credits and Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) recognised by or issued through The Bahamas, as well as collects activity data from entities that operate in sectors outlined in the previous NDC document. In addition, the National Energy Policy (2025–2030) has been revised to emphasise energy diversification, efficiency, and regulatory modernisation, aligning national energy planning with NDC implementation. This policy evolution has helped establish the enabling conditions and actionable pathways required for The Bahamas to achieve its mitigation goals. The Bahamas’ mitigation actions signal a determined effort to transform its energy system and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, which currently dominate the national energy mix. The transition to renewable energy, anchored in utility-scale solar and battery storage technologies, will progressively reshape the electricity generation landscape, enhance energy security, and reduce emissions. Other distributed systems such as rooftop solar and community-level microgrids will further strengthen resilience, lower generation costs across the archipelago, and promote inclusive participation of households and businesses in the clean energy transition. Despite external challenges, including the high cost of imported fuels, limited grid interconnectivity, and exposure to extreme weather events, The Bahamas remains steadfast in its commitment to sustained climate action. NDC 3.0 Target The global response to climate change is driving a transformation in the energy sector, as countries transition from fossil fuel–dependent and emission-intensive economies toward renewable and clean energy systems. The Bahamas is similarly advancing this transition, guided by the ambitions laid out in its previous NDCs and further strengthened in NDC 3.0. The mitigation strategy for NDC 3.0 builds upon the ambition and lessons from the NDC 2.0 and addresses identified gaps to strengthen implementation across the five key IPCC categories: 1. Energy; 2. Transport; 3. Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU); 4. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF); and 5. Waste. 49 Energy and Transport Sectors The energy sector, including energy demand, electricity generation, and transport, plays a pivotal role in The Bahamas’ mitigation strategy.. The renewable energy transition is expected to reshape the national electricity mix, with several islands already introducing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems into their generation portfolios. Fiscal incentives have also been extended to private consumers and businesses investing in cleaner renewable energy technologies. Based on ongoing interventions, The Bahamas projects that renewable energy will account for more than 30% of total electricity generation by 2030. With further distributed-generation systems and installations across additional islands, this share is expected to increase to approximately 45% by 2035. The electricity mix will be further diversified through the planned adoption of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technologies and liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel. Decarbonisation of the transport sector represents another major area of emissions reduction. In line with NDC 3.0’s enhanced ambition, The Bahamas aims to achieve 50% of new vehicle sales as electric vehicles (EVs) and 30% as hybrid vehicles by 2035. This target effectively means that only 20% of new vehicles sold in the country will be powered solely by fossil fuels after 2035. Significant progress has already been made toward this transition. In 2022, the Government of The Bahamas led by example by introducing 50 BYD EVs ahead of COP 27, followed by an additional 185 EVs integrated into the government fleet (McCartney,2022). To further accelerate adoption, import duties on EVs have been reduced to 10% and 25%, depending on vehicle value and type. Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) NDC 3.0 also enhances ambition by accounting for expected emissions from the IPPU sector, particularly from fluorinated gases (F-gases) once the subsector is fully integrated into the National Inventory Report (NIR). While a baseline does not yet exist, data collection and estimation activities are ongoing. The Bahamas ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol in 2023, committing to the phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the coming years, consistent with global efforts to reduce high–global warming potential (GWP) substances. These efforts will be outlined in a national Kigali Implementation Plan (KIP) which is set to be approved in 2026. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) The Bahamas recognises that LULUCF remains its biggest challenge due to issues such as, financial support, development needs, and technical and social constraints. There is also the 50 need to safeguard against the consequences of climate disasters affecting the sector (for example, Hurricane Dorian in 2019). Ultimately, this reduces the amount of carbon sinks thereby increasing the national emissions. Notwithstanding, NDC 3.0 reaffirms the country’s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions with the assistance of strong public-private partnerships and access to relevant technologies. It is only through support that we will meet the international carbon neutrality target of 2050. Reversing the degradation of carbon sinks will be a key focus for The Bahamas across NDC 3.0, driven by advances in best available science and technology transfer. This will expand the scope of emissions and removals covered. Conditionality and Financial Support As a SIDS with limited resources and an economy highly vulnerable to external shocks and climate impacts, The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 mitigation targets are conditional upon adequate access to climate finance and capital. Achieving the Actions and Targets will require scaled-up international financial support, technology transfer, and capacity building to sustain long-term emissions reductions and resilience-building. National Target Summary The Bahamas aims to achieve a total GHG emissions reduction of 30% relative to 2010 emissions. This indicates that the emissions should be 4,148 Gg CO₂e by 2035 based on the 2010 emissions in the National Inventory Report (NIR) submitted with the First Biennial Update Report (BUR1). This target reflects enhanced ambition and is consistent with the country’s long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The mitigation actions and anticipated emissions projections are summarised below. NDC 3.0 Mitigation Actions Mitigation Actions directly contributing to emission reductions The mitigation actions presented in the table below were modelled using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. These actions directly contribute to achieving the NDC 3.0 emissions reduction target and reflect interventions across the five IPCC sectors Energy, Transport, LULUCF, IPPU, and Waste with linkages to relevant cross-cutting measures. The LEAP model was calibrated with national activity data, existing policy interventions, and technology uptake assumptions to estimate sectoral emissions trajectories and assess their contribution toward the 2035 targets. As indicated in Table 4.1 in NDC 3.0, a total of 41 mitigation actions were identified under NDC 2.0; however, not all were modelled for this NDC due to data and methodological limitations. For NDC 3.0, these actions were streamlined in line with revised national priorities, resulting in the removal of certain activities and the enhancement of others. The 51 updated actions are differentiated into modelled mitigation actions with quantifiable emission reduction potential and enabling activities. Mitigation actions previously modelled but removed from the updated list due to revised national priorities include: ● Installation of 20 MW of wind power capacity; and ● Actions related to solar water heating and solar energy usage, specifically: ○ Increasing solar water heater use by 40 percent (The Bahamas); and ○ Introducing incentives for solar water heater installations. In addition, solar photovoltaic (PV) initiatives were rationalised to better reflect current national circumstances and implementation capacity. As a result, there was a reduction in the number of actions related to expanded solar PV installation, focusing instead on high-impact, ongoing, or funded projects with measurable outcomes as highlighted in the table below. The table below highlights the mitigation actions that have been modelled in LEAP and directly contribute to the emissions reductions required to achieve the NDC 3.0 target. Table 6.1: Mitigation Actions Modelled Mitigation Actions Sector/ Sub-sector Adoption and implementation of revised building code for all new 1 buildings and renovations (including promotion and integration of Energy Demand nature-based solutions for low-impact development) Lighting retrofits for all government-occupied buildings in New 2 Energy Demand Providence 3 Streetlighting retrofit Energy Demand 4 Energy Efficient Standards for air conditioning systems Energy Demand Five (5) carbon-neutral Marine Protected Area facilities (photovoltaic 5 Energy Demand substitute for diesel generators) 50% of new vehicle sales to be electric and the 30% to be hybrid by 6 Transport 2035 7 11MW of solar in Grand Bahama by 2025, Electricity Generation 8 An additional 9MW of Solar in Grand Bahamas by 2035 Electricity Generation 9 60 MW of solar in New Providence by 2027 Electricity Generation 10 177MW of LNG plant in New Providence by 2027 Electricity Generation 11 10 MW of solar across the Family Islands by 2025 Electricity Generation 55 MW of solar across the Family Islands by 2035 with 40MW by 12 Electricity Generation 2027 and an additional 7.45MW by 2030 and the remainder by 2035 52 13 78.54 MW of LNG by 2027 with an additional 7.2MW by 2030 Electricity Generation 20MW of distributed solar across The Bahamas by 2035, increasing 14 Electricity Generation from 11.4MW in 2025 to 15MW by 2030 and 20MW by 2035 15 Reduce Transmission and Distribution losses to 7% by 2035 Electricity Generation 16 Pilot project for a 30kW OTEC Plant Electricity Generation Conservation and sustainable management practices, and the 17 LULUCF establishment of a forest estate with 20% land cover Re-establishment & rehabilitation of 50 ha of Davis Creek, Andros 18 LULUCF Ecosystem Net-zero emissions in LULUCF by 2050 (Additional mitigation 19 LULUCF action) 20% phase down of HFCs by 2035 (emission reduction not 20 IPPU estimated) 21 15MW Waste to Energy Plant by 2035 Waste/ Electricity Generation Mitigation Actions indirectly contributing to emission reductions The mitigation actions presented in the table below were not modelled using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. However, these actions indirectly contribute to achieving the NDC 3.0 emissions reduction target, with strong linkages to cross-cutting measures across multiple sectors. They complement the modelled interventions by supporting enabling conditions such as policy reform, capacity-building, institutional strengthening, and enhanced data systems that facilitate effective implementation of The Bahamas’ mitigation commitments. Table 6.2: Mitigation Actions Not Modelled Mitigation Actions Sector/ Sub-sector Energy audits for all Government occupied buildings in New 1 Energy Demand Providence 2 Energy audits for all existing Hotels and Industrial facilities Energy Demand Public awareness campaign for energy efficiency and energy 3 Energy Demand conservation* Establish finance mechanism to increase access to low interest 4 Cross-Cutting loans for EE and RE measures 5 Energy labelling programme for all appliances Energy Demand 6 Promotion of energy efficiency in water production Energy Demand 7 Promotion of the use of public transport Transport 8 Sustainable agroforestry practices in Andros, Grand Bahama, LULUCF 53 Acklins, Crooked Island, Planna and Samana Cays 9 Identify sustainable waste management practices Waste 10 Introduction of national recycling programme Waste Assessment of renewable energy potential across all occupied 11 Electricity Generation islands* 12 Upgrade incentives for renewable energy systems Electricity Generation Integrated resource and resilience plan for Grand Bahama 13 Electricity Generation Power Company and Bahama Power and Light 14 Standards implemented for vehicle fuel efficiency Transport 15 Improved incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles Transport Assessment of Government vehicles and a program for 16 Transport replacement of suitable vehicles with electric vehicles 17 Installation of charging stations for electric vehicles Transport The figure below illustrates the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trajectory for The Bahamas under the NDC 3.0 scenario, showing the impact of modelled mitigation actions across the key sectors including the NDC target level. The combined implementation of these interventions leads to a progressive decline in total national emissions, aligning with the 2035 NDC target of 4,148.22 GgCO₂eq. The baseline scenario represents the emissions trajectory without any additional measures beyond those implemented as of 2025. In contrast, the NDC 3.0 scenario incorporates all modelled mitigation actions except mitigation action 19 in Table 6.1 (net-zero emissions from the LULUCF sector). This specific action is treated as an additional intervention required to achieve the NDC 3.0 target and represents a critical pathway toward long-term decarbonisation objectives. Details on the expected contribution of each modelled mitigation action are provided in Annex C, including sector-specific assumptions, estimated reductions, and timelines for implementation. 54 Figure 6.1: Projected GHG emissions reductions for The Bahamas Table 6.3 represents the total projected emissions (GgCO2eq) figures between 2010 and 2035 for the baseline scenario, NDC 3.0 scenario, and NDC 3.0 scenario with net-zero emissions for LULUCF. Table 6.3: Projected GHG emissions reductions for The Bahamas Estimated Projected Emissions (GgCO2eq) Scenario 2010 2025 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 (Base (start year) year) Baseline 5,926 6,233 6,410 6,441 6,472 6,503 6,534 6,566 NDC 3.0 final 5,926 5,748 5,294 5,308 5,322 5,336 5,350 5,243 NDC 3.0 Final with zero emissions from LULUCF 5,926 5,634 4,606 4,506 4,405 4,305 4,204 3,983 NDC Target 4,148 55 7. Adaptation Enabling Environment for Climate Change Adaptation in The Bahamas The Bahamas has steadily advanced from acknowledging climate risks to enacting concrete adaptation measures through law, policy, and international advocacy. The journey began with the First National Communication (2001) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Policy (2005). Efforts further accelerated with subsequent National Communications, including the Second National Communication (2014) and Third National Communication (2022), which laid the technical foundation for vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. These efforts were further advanced by the recent Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA), conducted as part of the country’s efforts to update its GCF Country Program (CP) in 2025. In addition, The Bahamas developed and approved its first Sectoral Adaptation Plan, The Bahamas’ Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP) in 2024. Moreover, the country received approval in 2025 for a GCF Readiness Project to develop a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and 4 other Sectoral Adaptation Plans (SAPs) for the country, further highlighting that resilience to climate adaptation is a cornerstone issue for The Bahamas. From a legislative position, The Bahamas has responded to the ever intensifying climate risk that the country faces, by way of the Disaster Risk Management Act 2022, which restructured national response systems, mandating national disaster plans, recovery mechanisms, and a disaster fund that allows for more fluid and direct response to emergencies. Similarly, the Environmental Planning and Protection Act 2019 requires that projects establish and maintain environmental standards in the development, implementation and management phases of a project’s lifespan, supporting environmental management and sustainable development from cradle to grave. In practice, the EIA requires developers to implement sustainable means of development which includes environmental best practices. Additionally, with a new building code slated to be released, greater emphasis will be placed on the climate resilient infrastructure. Adaptation efforts in The Bahamas have also expanded beyond environmental measures to include finance and governance. The Public Finance Act 2023 introduces disaster management provisions for public assets, ensuring that climate and disaster risk considerations are integrated into national investment planning. It mandates that projects include risk assessments during identification, appraisal, and selection stages; establishes mechanisms to fast-track urgent investments for disaster recovery; and requires comprehensive understanding of disaster and environmental risks in asset management through relevant information systems. The Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act 2022 provides financial pathways for resilience-building through carbon credit revenues, 57 helping the country adapt to the ever-changing financial climate and enshrines the Paris Agreement in law, and legislates the identification of adaptation goals and the development of a NAP. From a policy perspective, The Bahamas has integrated adaptation into the National Energy Policy 2025 by way of expanding renewable energy access and advancing efforts to reduce the country’s electrical grids to climate vulnerability. At present, The Bahamas is heavily reliant on New Providence for food security, infrastructure, and services. This dependency, combined with coastal vulnerability, heightens climate risk across the Family Islands. Pending programmes like the Race for Resilience Project (R4R) seek to reduce this overdependence by enabling the Family Islands to build localised resilience through nature-based solutions, infrastructure upgrades, and food security initiatives. These programmes embody the vision of a nationwide adaptation strategy designed to ensure resilience is shared across the archipelago, and not concentrated in the capital. In order to ensure that adaptation action has the most impact on the country and leads to the best possible responses to climate change, the actions also attempt to align with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). This alignment emphasises enhancing resilience, reducing vulnerabilities, and ensuring adaptation efforts contribute to sustainable development. By connecting national priorities to the GGA, The Bahamas can measure progress against internationally recognised targets while tailoring responses to its unique circumstances. The Bahamas is already making strides in national climate adaptation, accomplishing innovative milestones that will shape the nation’s climate resilience pathway. Notably, The Bahamas received the ESG Deal of the Year Award (2025) for its groundbreaking Debt Conversion Project for Marine Conservation initiative. Developed in collaboration with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), The Nature Conservancy (TNC), Builders Vision, AXA XL, and Standard Chartered, this innovative programme is projected to generate an estimated USD $124 million over the next 15 years to support marine conservation efforts across the country (Office of the Prime Minister, 2025a). Taken together, the adaptation pathways that The Bahamas has pursued over the years contribute to the creation of a stronger enabling environment for climate resilience. These actions are not only about responding to the immediate threats posed by storms and other climate-related hazards, but also safeguarding the broader well-being of Bahamian society. Adaptation is central to protecting public health, ensuring economic stability, and maintaining the social security of our citizens in the face of intensifying global challenges. Looking 58 forward, the adaptive steps outlined in this document will not only enhance resilience to storms, health crises, and economic disruptions but will also reinforce The Bahamas’ leadership role among SIDS. By pursuing adaptation as both a protective measure and a pathway to sustainable development, The Bahamas is charting a course that seeks to secure a better quality of life for its people today while preparing for the challenges of tomorrow. This section will further focus on advancing adaptation, the relationships needed to further this adaptation, and how it will effect change in The Bahamas. Figure 7.1: Framework for adaptation 59 Distinguishing between Adaptive Capacity and Adaptation Action The Bahamas, while continuing to establish enabling environments, is presently shaping a national adaptation strategy that aims to ensure the security of its citizens, ecosystems, and economy in the long term. In conceptualising this national adaptation strategy, The Bahamas notes the tension between building adaptive capacity and taking actual adaptation actions. The importance of distinguishing between these two activities is carefully outlined to clearly reflect the current state of climate change adaptation in the country, as well as national ambitions for future adaptation outcomes. Currently, the majority of projects classified under adaptation in The Bahamas aims to increase the adaptive capacity of communities, economic sectors, or at-risk ecosystems. Still, reports like the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA), reveal that current levels of adaptive capacity are indicative of the lack of institutional, technical, or financial capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change on coastal ecosystems, communities, and the economy (Baastel, 2023). The archipelagic nature and hurricane exposure further hinder the translation of adaptive capacity into actual adaptation action, forcing responses to be reactive and siloed. As emphasised in the Third National Communication, both adaptive capacity and adaptation actions must be scaled across key sectors to effectively support the national economy, benefit communities, and safeguard vital ecosystems (Government of The Bahamas, 2024b). “Adaptive capacity”, as understood by the UNFCCC, is defined as a system’s ability to reorganise in an effort to cope under current climate variability or future climate-induced stress (Brooks and Adger, 2004). Practically, it contributes to the design and implementation of effective adaptive strategies by providing the essential information, institutional guidance, technical expertise, and financial backing. In The Bahamas, limited adaptive capacity correlates with higher vulnerability to climate risks and inevitable loss and damage. “Adaptation action” is the actualisation of adaptive capacity, using informational, institutional, technical, and financial inputs to directly respond to a localised climate-related problem and create lasting resilience (Brooks and Adger, 2004). In The Bahamas, the effectiveness of adaptation actions across sectors and islands is hindered by capacity constraints affecting one or more of the necessary inputs, leaving sensitive ecosystems and communities vulnerable to climate risks, thereby compounding the consequences of climate change on the economy. Ultimately, the tension underpinning The Bahamas’ adaptation lies between increasing resilience and avoiding loss and damage. Adaptive capacity provides the toolkit necessary for adaptation actions. Stakeholders must balance current adaptation efforts, emerging 60 efforts shaping the future, and long-term goals securing a climate-resilient archipelago. The Three Horizons Framework (Sharpe et al., 2016) is ideal for providing stakeholders with this balanced outlook to assess the evolution of adaptation efforts and support decision-making. The Three Horizons for Adaptation in The Bahamas The first horizon illustrates a business as usual (BaU) trendline for adaptation. Adaptation efforts have been oriented around dated policy frameworks and supported by traditional international mechanisms. Eventually, BaU will reach its peak then become less and less viable to support local adaptation needs. The expectation that such a reality is imminent, paired with the damaging effects of climate change, inspires innovations that facilitate a transition toward the future. The second horizon consists of innovative adaptation efforts underscored by experimentation, learning, and reiteration. This transitional era features direct responses to present challenges identified in Horizon 1 in order to fill gaps, create opportunities, and meet needs with novel ideas, thereby enabling Horizon 3 to take shape. Finally, the third horizon represents the future being envisioned now. It will leverage some of the foundational efforts and lessons from Horizon 1 in order to incorporate successful innovations and best practices from Horizon 2 into future adaptation efforts. Ultimately, these three horizons outline and support the decision-making journey necessary to secure climate resilience for The Bahamas. Figure 7.2: Three Horizons for Adaptation in The Bahamas 61 A stakeholder engagement exercise using the Three Horizons Framework yielded critical insights summarised in the tables that follow. Stakeholders’ feedback highlighted how the Three Horizons Framework effectively captures the state of adaptation efforts in The Bahamas by revealing the coexistence of outdated systems (Horizon 1), emerging innovations (Horizon 2), and a nascent long-term vision for resilience (Horizon 3). Participants noted that while the framework helps visualise this transition, its real value will depend on whether it drives specific, measurable, and enforceable outcomes. Without such grounding, Horizon 2 risks becoming a “graveyard of pilot projects,” and Horizon 3 may remain purely aspirational. To translate the framework into practice, stakeholders suggested linking it to clear, operational standards. For example, embedding adaptation targets into building codes, climate-focused environmental impact assessments, and ecosystem monitoring. In this way, the framework can move beyond conceptual alignment to guide tangible progress, ensuring that adaptation in The Bahamas is both vision-driven and implementation-focused. 62 Table 7.1: Horizon 1 What is the adaptation ‘status quo’ and how has it been shaped? A system built more on recovery than preparedness, caught between good intentions and outdated habits Limited financial capacity to support adaptation needs shaped by the reality that climate finance is more accessible for mitigation-focused projects. Hard engineering solutions for coastal protection shaped by high exposure and vulnerability to coastal hazards and higher costs associated with alternative methods. Disproportionate distribution of losses and damages across Family Island communities shaped by utilitarian management approaches necessary due to capacity constraints. Unsustainable development and reduced climate resilience shaped by inadequate land use / development planning and implementation gaps. Repetitive poor building practices shaped by legislative gaps and solidified societal norms that increase vulnerability and lead to higher recovery costs. What needs to be sustained, improved, or phased out? Efforts to increase adaptation finance, coastal resilience, and resource distribution to the Family Islands need to be significantly enhanced. Management approaches need to ensure the most good is achieved for those most vulnerable communities often located on less populated islands. Outdated adaptation practices that only feature hard engineering solutions, gray infrastructure, and reactive management must be phased out to make way for innovative solutions. The Business-as-Usual mode of operating in silos is one of the internal modes of operation that should be phased out. Coordination between leadership in the adaptation sector needs to be improved to a level that allows for sustainable progress despite political shifts. 63 Table 7.2: Horizon 2 What innovations are shaping the transition from present to future? New fit-for-purpose finance mechanisms such as debt swaps with built-in access to more funds upfront and parametric insurance with climate change specific trigger events. Embedding sector specific adaptation strategies into the national adaptation plan to support a polycentric governance approach. Holistic adaptation projects designed to increase climate resilience with efforts focused on Family Island communities (R4R spatial diversification). Technological advancement by introduction of smart water meters, and desalination projects throughout the archipelago increasing access to potable water for underserved communities. Updating building codes to reflect climate realities and encourage appropriate development particularly in most vulnerable areas. Increased renewable energy projects and energy efficiency programmes, fuel switching, and critical infrastructure updates under the New Energy Era policy framework aimed at transitioning a key sector to support broader adaptation efforts on a national scale. What efforts are missing and how would introducing them support a successful shift? Comprehensive integration of climate change into the education system would enhance public awareness and strengthen internal capacity for adaptation efforts in the future. Investing in local climate research would ensure that scientific insights are locally specific, increase data availability, and encourage experimentation that reveals more effective adaptation measures. Introducing regional policy frameworks and complementary financial mechanisms would encourage knowledge sharing and increase access to funds for ambitious adaptation projects with multi-national benefits. Efforts to encourage community buy-in and increase public trust would bolster localised adaptation strategies by enabling sustainable long-term implementation through empowered communities. Institutional integration of standardised planning mechanisms and project management training. Expansion of in-country technical support, experts, and specialists, who build the systems and understand the local context. This improves decision making by balancing practicality, capability, cost and necessary outcomes. 64 Table 7.3: Horizon 3 What is the future outlook for adaptation across the archipelago? Strong synergies between healthy ecosystems and resilient communities increasing the ability to withstand climate impacts without external support. Information, technology, and finance readily available to inspire and support continuous innovation that enables countrywide adaptation to evolving climate risks. Multisectoral, people-centred climate governance that balances economic prosperity with environmental sustainability and social wellbeing in evolutionary national adaptation policies and plans. Robust locally-specific data systems informing solutions that are beneficial instead of destructive and more effective than the status quo. What specific elements, recognizable now, are signaling that future reality? Nationwide coral reef and mangrove restoration efforts, Integrated coastal zone management projects with extensive stakeholder engagement, policy interventions that strengthen environmental regulations. Efforts to establish monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) systems, accreditation of local climate finance institutions, increased engagement with multilateral climate funds and involvement in UNFCCC processes including climate negotiations, capacity building workshops and technology transfer initiatives. Emerging policy frameworks such as the updated national climate change adaptation policy and innovative sector led initiatives like the recent HNAP. Agencies are moving towards evidence-based decision-making and attempting to generate detailed background data for those purposes. The contributions from stakeholders, captured by the Three Horizons Framework and reflected in Tables 7.1-7.3, informed the development of adaptation actions for NDC 3.0 (See Table 7.6). The vision for the future of national adaptation efforts in The Bahamas, revealed by Horizon 3, is the expected outcome of these actions. However, advancing adaptation efforts towards a comprehensive strategy will depend on whether the necessary support to alleviate financial, institutional, technical, or other constraints that are hindering the adoption and escalation of innovative efforts, highlighted in Horizon 2, is delivered in time to avoid greater loss and damage. 65 Advancing Adaptation Efforts Towards a Comprehensive Strategy The Bahamas’ previous Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC and NDC 2.0), along with its National Communications to the UNFCCC, consistently identified the country’s particular vulnerability to climate change across multiple sectors. Adaptation priorities were anchored in coastal and marine ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, tourism, health, human settlements, energy, and forestry, reflecting both the economic reliance on natural resources and the exposure of infrastructure and communities to climate hazards. These earlier commitments emphasised the need to reduce risks from sea-level rise, hurricanes, storm surge, drought, salinisation, and coral reef degradation, while also building institutional capacity and integrating climate considerations into development planning. Institutional frameworks have been strengthened through initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund readiness programmes, which are helping to enhance project pipelines, strengthen regulatory frameworks, and build technical expertise for adaptation planning. The recently developed GCF Country programme (CP) underwent a series of stakeholder consultations to determine which project ideas and respective sectors are most pressing from a country-wide perspective. The CP document itself identifies five viable project concept notes that can be developed into full-sized projects to strengthen project pipelines and streamline climate finance flows into The Bahamas. Policy and regulatory measures are being advanced, including revisions to building codes, Disaster Risk Management (DRM) planning, and sectoral policies to improve infrastructure, resilience, and safety standards. Additionally, sector-specific initiatives are underway, including health programmes that integrate climate risks like vector-borne diseases; tourism efforts that are expanding to incorporate sustainable practices and the protection of marine and coastal ecosystems; and agriculture pilot projects featuring climate-smart approaches that are being tested to address salinity and water stress. Monitoring and knowledge systems are being updated to improve national reporting through reports such as the Third National Communication (NC3) and Biennial Update Report (BUR1) and to ensure preparations for comprehensive monitoring, reporting, and verification frameworks. Building on these foundations, The Bahamas is now advancing a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach through the development of its first National Adaptation Plan (NAP). The NAP is designed as a country-driven, participatory, and evidence-based process that will translate the long-term vision of the Draft National Development Plan – Vision 2040 into sector-specific adaptation strategies. 66 A core outcome of the NAP will be the preparation of Sectoral Adaptation Plans (SAPs) for four priority areas: Coastal and Marine Resources, Critical Infrastructure, Agriculture, and Tourism. These sectors were selected given their central importance to the country’s economy and wellbeing, and the severe climate risks they face: ● Coastal and Marine Resources are threatened by rising seas, storm surges, and coral reef decline with implications for fisheries and shoreline stability. ● Critical Infrastructure has repeatedly suffered devastating losses during recent hurricanes, exposing vulnerabilities in housing, energy, transport, and public health systems. ● Agriculture faces declining arable land due to salinisation and drought, while also carrying national food security concerns. ● Tourism, contributing 70% of GDP in 2024 (Central Bank of The Bahamas, 2024), is directly tied to the health of beaches, reefs, and built coastal infrastructure, making climate resilience vital for economic survival. To support this strategy, the NAP incorporates LiDAR technology to generate high-resolution risk and vulnerability maps for multiple islands, enabling more precise identification of high-risk zones and guiding targeted interventions. It also calls for the revision of the National Policy for the Adaptation to Climate Change (2005) to ensure that adaptation policy reflects contemporary climate realities and is aligned with the Paris Agreement. In addition, a Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP) was developed in 2024. This plan outlines strategies to reduce the health sector’s vulnerability to climate change while integrating health considerations into national climate action. Efforts under the HNAP will be coordinated by the Climate Change and Health Unit that was established to facilitate implementation by 2030. Although Health will not be a priority sector under the NAP, the existing HNAP offers a proof of concept for the SAPs outlined above and will prioritise Health as a key adaptation area for the country. Through this comprehensive strategy, The Bahamas is moving beyond sectoral listings of vulnerabilities toward actionable roadmaps that align national policy, scientific evidence, and international climate finance. The NAP therefore represents both a continuation of earlier adaptation commitments under the NDCs and a decisive step toward strengthening resilience, safeguarding lives and livelihoods, and positioning the country as a leader in climate-resilient development within the Caribbean. 67 The Adaptation Nexus In keeping with the cross-sectoral focus of the upcoming NAP, The Bahamas recognises the importance of developing and applying integrated approaches to address evolving climate risks. Therefore, an adaptation nexus that integrates and prioritises critical systems (water, food, energy and transport), human security, disaster risk reduction (DRR), participatory policy development and climate justice within the national adaptation strategy is needed to scale and strengthen adaptation efforts. Such a framework could integrate Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, particularly emerging elements of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and the Sendai Framework. As national adaptation efforts advance, such integrative thinking will be critical for ensuring coherence between adaptation priorities, resilience planning, and updated policy frameworks. This emerging perspective emphasises that climate resilience cannot be achieved in isolation; rather, it requires coordinated, multi-sectoral action across systems. Achieving the full scope of this adaptation nexus is a part of a larger effort which The Bahamas aims to initiate through the development of the NAP and the updating of the National Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Policy (2005). Additional technical assistance, institutional capacity-building and financial support would be required to further these efforts. Nevertheless, The Bahamas continues to enhance DRR efforts through the DRM Authority and the node between DRR and CCA strategies is being strengthened through collaboration with the CCEAU. Therefore, the important factors relevant to this existing node of the adaptation nexus are detailed in this section. For The Bahamas, integration of DRR and CCA can be furthered through identification of overlapping hazards as shown in Figure 7.3. 68 Figure 7.3: Hazard typology DRR-CCA integration can be achieved through several spheres of action as indicated in Table 7.4. Table 7.4: Integration of DRR and CCA Spheres of Action Integration Joint data collection, risk assessments, research, and M&E covering all Knowledge natural hazards, their historical timescales and climate change projections. Links with legislation, policies and national plans/strategies to ensure Policy joint planning and implementation. Joint expenditure analysis, budgeting, funding and risk financing opportunities to more explicitly allocate and monitor resources for CCA Finance and DRR as a part of financial management at national and local levels. Build joint risk capacities, coordination, responsibilities, procedures, Organisation tools, programmes and projects with respect to development at the national and local levels. Development at the national and local levels based on technical advice Stakeholders from DRR and CCA practitioners. Source: Adapted from UNDP, 2020. 69 Each sphere of action has varied entry points for achieving desired outcomes with respect to developing an Adaptation Nexus which integrates CCA and DRR. These entry points are outlined in Table 7.4 and 7.5. Which entry points are selected depends on the context for priority actions by the country. For example, if the private sector is taken as an entry point, it is in recognition of the role that this sector can play in CCA and DRR. The private sector can provide financial and technical resources that can help reduce risk and increase resilience. In order to mobilise the private sector to act, the Government will need to engage with the sector, particularly with respect to investment that reduces rather than increases risks. When engaging with the private sector, it is important to engage businesses of all sizes, from large corporations to MSMEs, as well as professional societies and trade associations. Businesses can also be supported to engage in CCA and DRR through providing them tools, such as risk-informed business training and opportunities to participate in PPPs. Table 7.5: Entry points for action Knowledge Policy Finance Organisation Stakeholders Awareness and Budgeting and Capacity education Leadership and expenditure advocacy analysis Government Coordination and Research and local responsibilities knowledge Legislation and Resource Civil society regulation mobilisation Procedures, Assessment and Private sector tools and analysis of risks Policy, strategies and Risk-informed management plans investments Partnerships and Monitoring & networks Programmes and evaluation, compliance Standards Risk-financing projects and reporting and transfers Source: UNDP, 2020 70 Progress on NDC 2.0 (pre-2030) Adaptation Actions and Process to Identify NDC 3.0 (2031-2035) Adaptation Actions The Bahamas’ NDC 2.0 identified 47 adaptation actions, based on one overarching target and seven objectives/components, as outlined in Figure 7.4. For the development of NDC 3.0 adaptation actions, objective No. 5 was expanded to include other critical infrastructure. For this section, the 47 adaptation actions from NDC 2.0 were analysed to reflect progress towards achieving the NDC 2.0 (pre-2030) adaptation actions. The exercise further involved identifying which pre-2030 adaptation actions would benefit from continued implementation during the NDC 3.0 (2031-2025) period and streamlining adaptation actions to better highlight national priorities for implementation during the years 2031-2035. As a result, the items reported in Table 7.6 related to NDC 2.0 (pre-2030) adaptation actions include: current status of NDC 2.0 adaptation actions, key actors involved in facilitating NDC 2.0 actions, relevant sectors, existing constraints, and recent highlights. In addition, Table 7.6 includes: NDC 3.0 (2031-2035) adaptation actions and the corresponding objectives/components related to implementing the NDC 3.0 adaptation actions. Figure 7.4: Objectives of NDC 71 Table 7.6: Tracked progress of NDC 2.0 (pre-2030) Adaptation Actions and recommended Adaptation Actions for NDC 3.0 (2031-2035) Pre-2030 Actions Tracking NDC 2.0 Progress 2031-2035 Actions NDC 2.0 NDC 3.0 Improve access to Status: On Track Increase availability and accurate weather and Actors: Department of Meteorology, BACSWN, BNGIS, DRM access to accurate climate-related data and Authority, CCEAU climate-related data, projections (including Sector: Cross-sectoral projections and models flood maps to inform land Constraints: Institutional and technical capacity gaps are delaying especially flood maps, use planning) to develop outputs extreme precipitation a better understanding of charts, sea-level rise Highlights: A Storm Surge Atlas has been created for Grand the risks and models, and a Bahama and Eleuthera consequences of climate country-wide storm change across sectors. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 3, 6, 7 surge atlas to provide Modelling extreme Status: Not Started stakeholders with a precipitation, sea-level Actors: Department of Meteorology, DRM Authority, WSC, CCEAU better understanding rise and storm surge of the risks and Sector: Water Resources consequences events, to develop a Constraints: Institutional and technical capacity gaps are delaying of climate change better understanding of outputs across sectors. the risks and consequences of these Highlights: Existing Storm Surge Atlas can act as a baseline for phenomena on water modelling surge events in addition to the national Disaster utility systems and Preparedness Baseline Assessment. availability of Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 3, 6, 7 groundwater resources Develop and implement a Status: On Track Implement the Sectoral National Adaptation Plan Actors: CCEAU Adaptation Plans covering priority sectors (SAPs) with emphasis Sector: Cross-Sectoral on vulnerable island Constraints: While The Bahamas will have a NAP developed by communities and 2028 securing funding to implement the NAP will be a constraint update the national Highlights: The Bahamas secured $3M from the GCF in February adaptation policy on a 2025 to advance national adaptation planning. 5-year cycle Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 3 Develop and implement Status: On Track community-based climate Actors: CCEAU change adaptation plans Sector: Cross-sectoral on most vulnerable Constraints: Limited public awareness and engagement reduces islands. community buy-in and resources to implement Highlights: A country-wide Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) was conducted and a NAP project is underway Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 3 Review and update the Status: On Track National Policy for Actors: CCEAU Adaptation to Climate Sector: Cross-sectoral Change 72 Constraints: Institutional and technical capacity gaps are delaying outputs Highlights: The Bahamas secured $3M from the GCF in February 2025 to advance national adaptation planning and to update the 2005 policy Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 3 Develop contingency Status: On Track Scale existing planning for essential Actors: MOWFIA, MOET, BPL, GBPC, contingency planning systems efforts across sectors Sector: Cross-sectoral (electricity,heating, with emphasis on cooling, ventilation, water Constraints: Institutional and technical capacity gaps are delaying country-wide heating supply, sanitation outputs. Financial constraints to implementing pilot projects that and cooling* services, waste would assist with transitioning essential systems. management, and Highlights: Uptake of OTEC systems in hotels for cooling, interests communications) to from multilateral agencies on The Bahamas’ efforts to advance ensure that they will not OTEC. be cut off during extreme Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 3 weather events Develop and implement Status: On Track Review, update, and a plan for integrated Actors: MOWFIA, IDB, BNT implement ICZM coastal zone Framework Policy Sector: Cross-sectoral management (ICZM) to 2005 for Integrated Constraints: Institutional and technical capacity gaps are delaying promote sustainable Coastal Zone outputs. Difficulty with enforcing policies that promote sustainable development of coastal Management to development of coastal zones zones promote sustainable Highlights: There is government support for ICZM projects and development of coastal initiatives, a unit within the Ministry of Works is responsible for ICZM. zones Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 4 Build capacity among Status: Delayed Enhance capacity local communities for Actors: DEPP, Forestry Unit building efforts through alternative livelihoods as Sector: Cross-sectoral projects that increase a means of economic public awareness, Constraints: Implementation challenges including financial, human, recovery / diversification engagement, and and organisational constraints to improve climate transparency relative to Highlights: International technical assistance and financial support resilience alternative livelihoods for projects and strong community buy-in across existing projects. as a means of Non-state actors have also supported efforts in this area. economic Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 4, 6, 7 recovery/diversification to improve climate resilience Conduct a national study Status: On Track Leverage knowledge on sectoral vulnerability Actors: Department of Meteorology, BACSWN, BNGIS, DRM acquired from previous based on geographic Authority, CCEAU studies to update data and indicators Sector: Cross-sectoral national policies/plans Constraints: Lack of data from remote areas, limited financing and inform decisions available for scaling up to the national level and insufficient human by relevant resources stakeholders on sectoral vulnerability, 73 Highlights: There are complementary geospatial projects underway natural capital in the country. A NAP Project is under development that will valuations, and other establish island specific risk and vulnerability maps, while a national economic opportunities CRVA was developed. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 Conduct a study on Status: Delayed economics of climate Actors: CCEAU, DRM Authority, MOF change in The Bahamas Sector: Cross-sectoral with a cost benefit Constraints: Financial and technical support needed for substantive analysis of adaptation undertaking of this exercise actions Highlights: Efforts have been undertaken in the country to connect climate change and finance i.e. a climate and disaster risk budget tagging exercise, government legislation that takes into account climate and finance, establishment of a High Level Climate Policy Committee (HLCPC), NAP can assist in some components related to this adaptation action. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 Develop ecological and Status: On Track economic analysis to Actors: MOF, CCEAU, DCPMC-PMU increase knowledge on Sector: Forests / Biodiversity the value of forest, Constraints: Lack of funding for substantive research to support mangrove, coral reef and these analyses sea grass ecosystems Highlights: The Bahamas hosts 61% of Caribbean seagrass, providing significant ecosystem services and carbon storage capability. The DCPMC sets a foundation for this adaptation action. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 Update and implement Status: On Track Assess and update the the building code so it Actors: MOWFIA building code within the considers the Sector: Infrastructure NDC 3.0 incorporation of the Constraints: Institutional & technical capacity gaps are delaying implementation climate variable into outputs timeline. The updates infrastructure construction Highlights: The building code is in the final stages of the review should include climate and reconstruction process. change considerations processes (including the Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 5, 6 in the design of new promotion of critical infrastructure on nature-based solutions an amendment basis, for low impact ensuring accessibility, development) adoption and alignment Adoption and Status: Not Started with the Critical implementation of Actors: MOWFIA, Bahamian Contractors Association, Bahamas Infrastructure SAP* revised building code for Society of Engineers, Institute of Bahamian Architects and other all new buildings and actors outlined in the updated building code renovations* Sector: Infrastructure Constraints: Institutional and technical capacity gaps in enforcement Deploy climate resilient Highlights: The building code is in the final stages of the review infrastructure and process. climate-proof existing 74 Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 5, 6 critical facilities across Include climate change Status: On Track key sectors and considerations in the Actors: MOET, BPL, GBPC islands. design of new energy Sector: Infrastructure infrastructure (establish Constraints: Institutional & technical capacity gaps are delaying requirements), as well as outputs contingency plans to Highlights: The Bahamas has introduced a New Energy Era Policy reduce long power and an updated National Energy Policy and in developing power outages purchase agreements (PPAs) has required partners to include climate change considerations in the design of new energy infrastructure and inclusion of renewable energy Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 5, 6 Enhance land use Status: Not Started Enhance integrated planning across the Actors: MOWFIA, BNGIS, DRM Authority, CCEAU, OPM, MENR, and climate-informed country to ensure climate BNT land use and change-related risks are Sector: Human Settlements development planning appropriately addressed, Constraints: Institutional & technical capacity gaps are delaying and pursue actions to including providing outputs. Outdated zoning maps do not cater to climate or disaster promote spatial guidance on the location risk planning. diversification, and of coastal development Highlights: Efforts are being undertaken to make relative data more embracing new accessible for the development of models and maps that can inform monitoring land use planning based on more recent information. The NAP technologies that process is underway and will allow alignment with the Critical address climate Infrastructure SAP. There is a draft land-use plan for New change data Providence and Andros that has been developed, but has not been acquisition for the implemented. guidance of coastal Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 4, 7 development. Promote the use of Status: On Track Pursue PPPs and public and private Actors: CCEAU, MOF, HLCPC, BPAF, BDB innovative climate partnerships to increase Sector: Cross-sectoral financing and funding for adaptation Constraints: Adaptation actions are normally viewed as social goods partnerships, as actions that do not align with private sector investment interests, challenges appropriate and with processes responsible for accepting adaptation finance in the leveraging country assessments, lessons learned, and best Highlights: GCF Country Programme in place that takes into account practices, to augment PPPs; DCPMC can serve as an example of PPPs to increase limited national funding for activities in the country with adaptation co-benefits; resources. enhancing direct access to climate finance projects is underway in The Bahamas. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2 Leverage carbon Status: On Track Continue leveraging markets to access Actors: CCEAU, NER, MOF carbon markets to adaptation funding access financing Sector: Cross-sectoral opportunities for Constraints: Timeframe for engaging in carbon market processes adaptation actions can sometimes be protracted. Technical and human capacity constraints. 75 Highlights: Legislation on carbon markets exists and increased capacity on institutional arrangements and technology is in place. Scientific and verification processes are underway for carbon markets. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2 Explore new Status: On Track Enhance technological solutions for Actors: WSC, CCEAU, MOET climate-resilient water ensuring population’s Sector: Water Resources security and promote access to drinking water Constraints: Financing and prioritisation challenges given the on-site renewable (e.g., a pilot project for a geographical context as an archipelago power supplies to lower rainwater harvesting costs of operation Highlights: WSC aiming to deliver a large project supported by the plant, that connects the through new GCF. Reliable and sustainable energy provision will help to increase most vulnerable technologies to ensure access to fresh drinking/potable water. households to a drinking the continued Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 3, 5 water supply availability of drinking system, or for it to be water during natural maintained as backup in disasters, prioritising the event of a natural vulnerable communities disaster) and islands with limited Increase investments in Status: On Track freshwater resources* desalination plants to Actors: WSC, CCEAU, MOET ensure water availability, Sector: Water Resources particularly on the Constraints: Financing and prioritisation challenges given the islands with fewer geographical context as an archipelago freshwater resources Highlights: WSC aiming to deliver a large project supported by the (ex. New Providence) GCF. Reliable and sustainable energy provision will help to increase and promote on-site access to fresh drinking/potable water. renewable power Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 3, 5 Raise awareness among Status: On Track Strengthen vulnerable populations Actors: MOHW, CCEAU, BIS, DEHS, DRM Authority, HBC (Healthy climate-resilient on climate change and Bahamas Coalition) healthcare by climate-related health Sector: Health integrating early risks Constraints: Limited institutional capacity and limited awareness warning systems among the Bahamian population on the connection between climate informed by climate and health scenarios into public Highlights: Climate and Health Unit established in MOHW. A HNAP health planning, was approved. expanding access to Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 3, 7 climate-smart health infrastructure, and Strengthen Status: On Track scaling outreach to epidemiological Actors: MOHW, CCEAU, BIS, DEHS, DRM Authority, HBC (Healthy vulnerable surveillance systems and Bahamas Coalition) communities on develop epidemic early Sector: Health climate-related health warning systems Constraints: Limited institutional capacity and limited awareness risks through the informed by climate among the Bahamian population on the connection between climate implementation of the scenarios, to prevent the and health Health National spread of infectious diseases 76 Highlights: Climate and Health Unit established in MOHW. A HNAP Adaptation Plan was approved. (HNAP) Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 3, 7 Promote climate-smart Status: On Track clinics and health-related Actors: MOHW, CCEAU, NIB, MOF infrastructure Sector: Health Constraints: Financing and prioritisation challenges given the geographical context as an archipelago Highlights: A HNAP was approved that addressed climate-smart health facilities. Private sources have already indicated intention to provide some financial support Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 3, 7 Provide farmers with Status: Delayed Operationalise and relevant meteorological Actors: Department of Meteorology, MOAMR, BAMSI expand the use of information regularly, as established climate Sector: Agriculture well as weather monitoring systems by Constraints: Institutional, technical capacity, and financial support forecasts, with the aim to training farmers in gaps are delaying progress on this action foster climate-sensitive climate-smart Highlights: The NAP process is underway and this action may be farming agriculture practices, undertaken in alignment with the Agriculture SAP. enhancing data Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 3, 6, 7 integration with Establishment of climate Status: Delayed meteorological services, monitoring systems for Actors: Department of Meteorology, MOAMR, BAMSI and scaling access to farms Sector: Agriculture localised weather Constraints: Institutional, technical capacity, and financial support forecasts to support gaps are delaying progress on this action resilient food production Highlights: The NAP process is underway and this action may be through the undertaken in alignment with the Agriculture SAP. implementation of the Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 3, 6, 7 Agriculture SAP Promote climate-smart Status: On Track Implement sustainable agriculture Actors: MOAMR, BAMSI, BAIC, BDB, Access Accelerator SBDC climate-smart measures (optimisation of Sector: Agriculture agriculture and water use/storage, soil Constraints: Financing and prioritisation challenges given the agroforestry practices, conservation, etc.) and geographical context as an archipelago. Impacts of natural disasters specifically the agroforestry practices and insurance provisions for farmers integration of (including diversification Highlights: Golden Yolk Programme is advancing sustainable climate-resilient crops, of crops and raising agricultural husbandry, CSA education being undertaken by BAMSI while leveraging livestock simultaneously, and in schools and agencies like Access Accelerator SBDC and knowledge gained from using significantly less BDB have funded CSA projects the climate change land) Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 3, 7 risks and impacts assessments on Assess climate change Status: Delayed Agriculture and risk and impacts on the Actors: CCEAU DRM Authority, MOAMR, BAMSI Fisheries sectors to Agriculture/Fisheries Sector: Agriculture/Fisheries inform sector specific sector (productivity and projects* food security) 77 Constraints: Financing and prioritisation challenges given the geographical context as an archipelago. Impacts of natural disasters and insurance provisions for farmers Highlights: The NAP process is underway and this action may be undertaken in alignment with the Agriculture SAP. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 3, 7 Investment in research Status: On Track on climate-resilient crops Actors: MOAMR, BAMSI Sector: Agriculture Constraints: Financing and prioritisation challenges given the geographical context as an archipelago. Impacts of natural disasters and insurance provisions for farmers Highlights: CSA education being undertaken by BAMSI and in schools and agencies like Access Accelerator SBDC and BDB have funded CSA projects Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 3, 7 Enhance protection and Status: On Track Expand marine and restoration of Actors: ICZM PIU, BNT, BTT, Waterkeepers, Friends of the terrestrial restoration damaged/degraded Environment, Mangrove Alliance (led by TNC), Coral Gene Bank, initiatives and ecosystems (e.g., Coral Vita, PIMS, BREEF. strengthen sustained terrestrial forests, Sector: Biodiversity conservation financing mangroves, coral reefs)* Constraints: Financing gaps relative to the scale of project to support long-term implementation ecosystem resilience* Highlights: Ongoing restoration initiatives, development of a Mangrove Management Plan and introduction of the DCPMC Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 4 Promote Nature-Based Status: Delayed Develop and Solutions (NbS) Actors: ICZM PIU, BNT, BTT, Waterkeepers, Friends of the implement policy approaches to sustain Environment, Mangrove Alliance (led by TNC), Coral Gene Bank, initiatives promoting ecosystems that ensure Coral Vita, PIMS and BREEF. the use of NbS to resilience against Sector: Biodiversity sustain ecosystems climate-related threats that ensure resilience Constraints: Financing gaps relative to the scale of project (ex. coral reef and against climate-related implementation mangrove) involving threats Highlights: Ongoing restoration initiatives, development of a local communities Mangrove Management Plan and introduction of the DCPMC Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 2, 4 Protect freshwater Status: Delayed Protect freshwater lenses to avoid losing Actors: WSC, CCEAU, MOET, MENR, MOWFIA, MOHUR lenses to avoid losing natural well-fields to Sector: Water Resources natural well-fields to other land use Constraints: Financing and prioritisation challenges given the other land use focusing geographical context as an archipelago on areas of historic water sourcing Highlights: WSC aiming to deliver a large project supported by the GCF. Reliable and sustainable energy provision will help to increase access to fresh drinking/potable water. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 4 78 Achieve a 30% of Status: On Track Achieve 45% of renewable energy mix on Actors: MOET, BPL, GBPC, URCA, other IPPs renewables in the each major island by Sector: Energy energy mix across all 2030* Constraints: Institutional capacity and financial resources, in addition occupied islands by to the impacts of natural disasters. 2035* Highlights: The Bahamas has introduced a New Energy Era Policy and an updated National Energy Policy, and in developing power purchase agreements (PPAs) has required partners to include climate change considerations in the design of new energy infrastructure and inclusion of renewable energy. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 5 Assessment of Status: Completed renewable energy Actors: MOET potential across all Sector: Energy occupied islands* Constraints: Speed and scale of financial resources to implement renewable energy options, unwillingness of some financial actors to take on risks associated with newer renewable energy options. Highlights: The Bahamas has introduced a New Energy Era Policy and updated National Energy Policy and in developing power purchase agreements (PPAs) has required partners to include climate change considerations in the design of new energy infrastructure and inclusion of renewable energy. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 5 Increase the percentage Status: Completed Increase the of electric vehicles to Actors: MOF, MOHW, MOWFIA, MOEVT, WSC, BPL, NIB,, percentage of electric Government fleet* Department of Immigration vehicles in the Sector: Transport Government fleet Constraints: Types and range of EVs available, cost of EVs and lack above 2030 baseline* of funding, willingness / skepticism to adopt EVs, lack of charging infrastructure especially on the Family Islands, potential impacts on the power grid. Highlights: Significant uptake of EVs into multiple government agency fleets, leadership by government in adoption of EVs Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 5 Assessment of variations Status: Delayed Assess variations in in energy demand Actors: MOET, NER, BPL, GBPC, Other IPPs energy demand derived from the effect of Sector: Energy caused by climate climate change Constraints: Availability of technical capacity both in the public and change private sector to conduct the assessments. Financing and prioritisation challenges given the geographical context as an archipelago. Highlights: The Bahamas has introduced a New Energy Era Policy and updated National Energy Policy and in developing power purchase agreements (PPAs) has required partners to include 79 climate change considerations in the design of new energy infrastructure and inclusion of renewable energy. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 1, 5, 7 Develop incentives to Status: Completed Enhance financial encourage the purchase Actors: MOF, NER, The Bahamas Customs & Excise Department, incentives that of electric vehicles* Access Accelerator SBDC, BDB, and other local financing encourage the institutions adoption of clean Sector: Energy energy solutions, Constraints: Types and range of EVs available, cost of EVs and lack including the purchase of funding, willingness / skepticism to adopt EVs, lack of charging of electric vehicles and infrastructure especially on the Family Islands, potential impacts on the conversion to personal electricity costs renewable energy Highlights: Reduction in customs levies on EVs (2022), significant sources* buy-in from private sector and local financial institutions, support better air quality and reduced fuel costs for private-owned vehicles Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 5 Improve financial Status: Completed incentives for Actors: MOF, NER, The Bahamas Customs & Excise Department, citizens/businesses to Access Accelerator SBDC, BDB convert to solar* Sector: Energy Constraints: Spreading awareness of active programmes, upfront cost of transitioning compared to continued fossil fuel reliance is deterring citizens/businesses Highlights: Reduction in customs levies on solar energy kits and components (2022), significant buy-in from private sector and local financial institutions Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 5 Strengthen effective Status: On Track Align the national delivery of climate Actors: Department of Meteorology, MOEVT curriculum and public change contents in the Sector: Cross-sectoral awareness campaigns national educational Constraints: Timeframe to introduce changes to national curriculum, with Action for Climate programme including climate change skepticism limiting opportunities to expand climate Empowerment (ACE) usefulness of relevant education, limited institutional, technical, human capacity and guidance and expand meteorological financial resources to support nationwide delivery across the outreach on climate information* archipelago impacts and adaptation Highlights: Increase in climate change and environmental topics practices to promote being integrated in the national curriculum, additional complimentary climate resilience efforts by NGOs, climate-oriented technical programmes and certifications being offered at the tertiary level Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 6, 7 Increase awareness of Status: Complete the importance of coral Actors: CCEAU, DCPMC-OPM, MOEVT, BNT, BREEF, Coral Vita reefs and mangrove Sector: Coastal & Marine resources forests for sustainable Constraints: Coordination between actors and the need to development and coastal harmonise efforts, limited human, financial, and technical resources. protection 80 Highlights: Multiple NGO focus on outreach and education, as well as programmes to involve and educate the public on these ecosystems, DCPMC providing access to increase funding for activities in the country with co-benefits to support this activity. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 6, 7 Promote public awareness Status: Complete of the possible effects of Actors: MOEVT, BNT, BREEF, DRM Authority, CCEAU climate change and Sector: Cross-sectoral disseminate good Constraints: Capacity gaps reinforce reactive approaches to adaptation practices, in promoting awareness, competition for public attention in traditional alignment with the Action and digital media channels, gaps in engagement of Family Island for Climate Empowerment youth and misalignment in climate opportunities for young (ACE) Bahamians Highlights: An ACE focal point has been appointed within MOEVT. The Bahamas Youth Climate Conference is a successful annual forum for fulfilling this action and national youth ambassadors deliver platforms dedicated to public awareness on climate change. Emerging climate-focused units across different Government agencies, such as the Climate and Health Unit in the MOHW are informing the public on sector-specific impacts and best practices. Many non-state actors are also involved in promoting public awareness on climate change. The Bahamian public is reported to be the most ‘climate aware’ in the region. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 6, 7 Awareness campaign for Status: Complete Develop a specific energy efficiency and Actors: NER, CCEAU, BPL, GBPC, URCA, MOET National Energy energy conservation* Sector: Energy Efficiency and Constraints: Limited connectivity between different actors reinforces Conservation Plan in silos while reducing synergistic partnerships that can boost alignment with the campaigns. 2025-2030 Bahamas Highlights: The Ministry of Energy and Transport and BPL have National Energy increased transparency through updated websites and social media Policy* platforms that facilitate awareness campaigns, NER has contributed to communications campaigns to adopt energy efficient appliances through their Green Choice Exemption Programme. Objectives for NDC 3.0 adaptation action: 2, 5, 6 *This action has mitigation co-benefits While it is clear from Table 7.6 that many adaptation actions from NDC 2.0 are ongoing or planned, it is equally clear that there are a number of constraints to their effective implementation particularly, funding gaps, insufficient technical and/or institutional capacity, limited availability of data and/or technology, and a lack of buy-in from the community and/or private sector. Addressing these constraints by 2030 is critically important to ensure that the implementation of new/updated actions in 2031-35 are not hindered by the same challenges, but instead able to build on the successes of current actions. 81 Introducing NDC 3.0 Adaptation Actions In this NDC, The Bahamas is putting forth a list of 25 updated actions in Table 7.7 to be implemented in 2031-2035 that build on the progress of previous adaptation actions and are tailored to national adaptation priorities. These updated actions, listed below, will guide the implementation of NDC 3.0 and the development of the adaptation contributions for future submissions. Table 7.7: NDC 3.0 (2031-2035) Adaptation Actions 2031-2035 Adaptation Actions 1 Increase availability and access to accurate 13 Strengthen climate-resilient healthcare by integrating climate-related data, projections and models early warning systems informed by climate scenarios especially flood maps, extreme precipitation charts, into public health planning, expanding access to sea-level rise models, and a country-wide storm climate-smart health infrastructure, and scaling surge atlas to provide stakeholders with a better outreach to vulnerable communities on understanding of the risks and consequences of climate-related health risks through the climate change across sectors. implementation of the Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP) 2 Implement the sectoral adaptation plans (SAPs) with 14 Operationalise and expand the use of established emphasis on vulnerable island communities and climate monitoring systems by training farmers in update the national adaptation policy on a 5-year climate-smart agriculture practices, enhancing data cycle integration with meteorological services, and scaling access to localised weather forecasts to support resilient food production through the implementation of the Agriculture SAP 3 Scale existing contingency planning efforts across 15 Implement climate-smart agriculture and sectors with emphasis on country-wide heating and agroforestry practices, specifically the integration of cooling* climate-resilient crops, while leveraging knowledge gained from the climate change risks and impacts assessments on Agriculture and Fisheries sectors to inform sector specific projects* 4 Review, update and implement ICZM Framework 16 Expand marine and terrestrial restoration initiatives Policy 2005 for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and strengthen sustained conservation financing to to promote a sustainable development of coastal support long-term ecosystem resilience* zones 5 Enhance capacity building efforts through projects 17 Develop and implement policy initiatives promoting that increase public awareness, engagement, and the use of NbS to sustain ecosystems that ensure transparency relative to alternative livelihoods as a resilience against climate-related threats means of economic recovery/diversification to improve climate resilience 82 2031-2035 Adaptation Actions 6 Leverage knowledge acquired from previous studies 18 Protect freshwater lenses to avoid losing natural to update national policies/plans and inform decisions well-fields to other land use focusing on areas of by relevant stakeholders on sectoral vulnerability, historic water sourcing natural capital valuations, and other economic opportunities 7 Assess and update the Building Code within the NDC 19 Achieve 45% of renewables in the energy mix 3.0 implementation timeline. The updates should across all occupied islands by 2035* include climate change considerations in the design of new critical infrastructure on an amendment basis, ensuring accessibility, adoption and alignment with the Critical Infrastructure SAP* 8 Deploy climate resilient infrastructure and 20 Increase the percentage of electric vehicles in the climate-proof existing critical facilities across key Government fleet above 2030 baseline* sectors and islands. 9 Enhance integrated and climate-informed land use 21 Assess variations in energy demand caused by and development planning and pursue actions to climate change. promote spatial diversification, and embracing new monitoring technologies that address climate change data acquisition for the guidance of coastal development. 10 Pursue PPPs and innovative climate financing and 22 Enhance financial incentives that encourage the partnerships, as appropriate and leveraging adoption of clean energy solutions, including the assessments, lessons learned, and best practices, to purchase of electric vehicles and the conversion to augment limited national resources. renewable energy sources* 11 Continue leveraging carbon markets to access 23 Align the national curriculum and public awareness financing opportunities for adaptation actions campaigns with Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) guidance and expand outreach on climate impacts and adaptation practices to promote climate resilience. 12 Enhance climate-resilient water security and promote 24 Develop a specific National Energy Efficiency and on-site renewable power supplies to lower costs of Conservation Plan in alignment with the 2025-2030 operation through new technologies to ensure the Bahamas National Energy Policy* continued availability of drinking water during natural disasters, prioritising vulnerable communities and islands with limited freshwater resources* 25 Increase capacity of hurricane shelters to support at least 10% of the population (from 2025 baseline of 3%) by the year 2035. *This action has mitigation co-benefits 83 Loss and Damage The Bahamas faces some of the most severe climate risks globally. Its archipelagic geography, low elevation, and location within the Atlantic Hurricane Belt makes the country highly vulnerable to both sudden-onset hazards and slow-onset processes (Baastel, 2023). Recent decades have seen intensifying storms, recurrent flooding, wildfires, and coastal erosion. Despite ongoing investments in adaptation and mitigation, residual risks remain that cannot be avoided, underscoring the critical importance of addressing Loss and Damage (L&D) within this NDC. Between 2015 and 2019 alone, The Bahamas experienced multiple devastating hurricanes: Joaquin (2015), Matthew (2016), Irma (2017), and most notably Dorian (2019), which caused an estimated USD $3.4 billion in damages and losses, the equivalent to a large share of national GDP (IADB, 2019). These events have had lasting economic, social, and cultural impacts, particularly in Abaco and Grand Bahama, and highlight the urgent need for systematic action on L&D. Figure 7.5: Loss and Damage from Hurricane Dorian 84 Table 7.8: Economic losses and damages from Hurricanes impacting The Bahamas 2015 – 2019 Combined Estimates Name of Estimated Active dates Category of loss & Impacted Islands Hurricane L&D as % of damage (BSD) GDP Long Island, Crooked 28 Sep – 15 Joaquin 4 120+ Million Island, Acklins, Rum Oct 2015 Cay, and San Salvador 28 Sep – 10 New Providence and Matthew 4 600 Million Oct 2016 Grand Bahama 30-40% Inagua, Acklins, Ragged 30 Aug – 13 Irma 5 135 Million Island, and Southern Sep 2017 Andros 24 Aug – 8 Grand Bahama and Dorian 5 3.4 Billion Sep 2019 Abaco Sources: NOAA, 2021;IADB, 2019; Zegarra et al., 2021. Table 7.8 highlights the significant impact of hurricanes, and the subsequent (and compounding) losses and damages experienced by the country. The total damage from these four hurricanes was nearly US$4.4 billion, which is equivalent to about 30 to 40 percent of Bahamian GDP (Zegarra et al., 2021). The table also reflects the important need for spatial diversification considerations for preventative planning to address L&D from extreme weather events impacting The Bahamas. The table reveals this by indicating losses are significantly greater when the northwest islands of the archipelago are impacted versus the southeastern islands despite hurricanes being classified as the same category. This suggests that the archipelago features limited spatial diversity and that directly links to the level of loss and damage experienced due to climate impacts. Overcoming this spatial diversity challenge is an expensive undertaking that faces barriers due to cultural resistance, climate risk, and inadequate financial capacity. Furthermore, not yet captured in Table 7.8 is the impact of Tropical Storm Imelda which primarily affected islands in the central and northern regions of The Bahamas, including the capital, on September 28 - 29th, 2025, leaving heavy flooding in its wake that resulted in economic losses for affected residences. In line with Article 8 of the Paris Agreement, The Bahamas aims to enhance understanding, action and support with respect to L&D through the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for Loss and Damage established under the UNFCCC at COP19. The L&D pillar of the UNFCCC is concerned with the actual and expected impacts of climate change that are not (or cannot be) avoided through mitigation and adaptation. This includes: 85 ● Economic losses: damage to housing, infrastructure, tourism facilities, agriculture, and businesses. ● Non-economic losses: loss of life, health impacts, displacement, cultural heritage loss, and ecosystem degradation. This NDC therefore covers both catastrophic events (e.g., major hurricanes) and the cumulative effects of more frequent, smaller-scale hazards (e.g., microbursts, pluvial flooding, wildfires, and heatwaves), as well as slow-onset changes such as sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion. The country’s two-pronged approach to addressing L&D has resulted in a national institutional framework, as well as international engagement and leadership. For example, the Disaster Risk Management Act, 2022 establishes the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Authority, which is responsible for disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. The Act provides the basis for integrating L&D into national disaster management, including through the Disaster Emergency Fund, and fiscal risk management measures under the responsibility of the DRM Authority (Disaster Risk Management Act, 2022). L&D considerations will also be reflected in the development of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and the soon-to-be-updated climate change adaptation policy. At the international level, The Bahamas aligns with the Warsaw International Mechanism and will engage with the Santiago Network for technical assistance. The country will actively pursue financing and implementation support through the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), for which the Barbados Implementation Modalities (BIM) prioritise Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in early funding phases. The Bahamas notably played a role in securing this early SIDS victory as a member of the board responsible for FRLD. Regionally, The Bahamas will continue to participate in the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) and efforts are currently being explored to better align this instrument with the country’s archipelagic nature. The Bahamas also aims to collaborate further with CARICOM, AOSIS, OAS and regional development banks to advance shared L&D objectives. For example, in 2023 The Bahamas hosted the 4th Inter-American Meeting of Ministers and High-Level Authorities on Sustainable Development organised through the Organisation of American States, Inter-American Council for Integral Development. This gathering of regional leaders yielded the Nassau Declaration and the Inter-American Climate Action Plan 2023-2030. These outcome documents reflect plans to reduce loss and damage by enhancing adaptation and mitigation efforts while calling for stronger financial flows to respond to loss and damage from existing climate change impacts. 86 Table 7.9: Ambitious L&D Actions Time Frame Potential Actions Operationalise an L&D unit within the DRM Authority, create a national Short term L&D registry, and prepare project pipelines for the FRLD. Integrate L&D into the NAP, scale up layered financing mechanisms, and Medium term institutionalise regular L&D reporting within NDC progress reviews. Pursue transformational measures such as rights-based relocation where Long term necessary, advance ecosystem-based solutions, and advocate for predictable and scaled-up international L&D finance for SIDS. Beyond domestic initiatives, The Bahamas has established itself as a leader in global efforts to advance climate justice and secure accountability for loss and damage. In 2024, The Bahamas submitted both written and oral arguments to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), emphasising that state inaction in the face of the climate crisis constitutes a crime of omission (AG Pinder, 2024). This intervention underscored the disproportionate burdens borne by vulnerable nations like The Bahamas. The resulting 2025 ICJ advisory opinion strengthened the evolving international legal framework on state responsibility for climate-related harms. By centering loss and damage in its advocacy, The Bahamas reinforced its position as a moral and legal voice for climate-vulnerable countries. Earlier in 2024, The Bahamas played a pivotal role before the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) as a founding member of the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law (COSIS). In supporting COSIS’s successful request for an advisory opinion, The Bahamas pressed for recognition of greenhouse gas emissions as a form of marine pollution. This legal framing is critical for establishing accountability, as it affirms that climate change impacts are fundamentally human rights issues. Such recognition strengthens the legal and moral basis for SIDS to demand compensation and support for addressing loss and damage. These interventions build on earlier commitments, including ratification of the Paris Agreement (2016), which was the first instance in which Loss and Damage appeared in a legally-binding international climate change treaty, seen as a hard-won victory for SIDS; and the endorsement of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (2024), positioning The Bahamas within global frameworks that advance equity and justice. Together, these actions align the country with emerging legal and financial mechanisms while enhancing its ability to access technical assistance, L&D-specific finance, and international solidarity. 87 Through sustained engagement in the ICJ, ITLOS, COSIS, and global treaty processes, The Bahamas has elevated the international recognition of polluter accountability and the need for loss and damage finance. These efforts demonstrate that even small island states can exercise outsized leadership in shaping a just global climate regime and securing redress for the irreversible impacts of climate change. The Bahamas commits to a comprehensive approach to Loss and Damage that combines strong national institutions, innovative financial mechanisms, robust data systems, and active international engagement. Addressing L&D is central to safeguarding the country’s people, culture, and economy. The Bahamas calls upon the international community to uphold commitments to provide predictable and adequate support for SIDS, ensuring that Loss and Damage finance and technical assistance are commensurate with the scale of the challenges faced. 88 8. Information necessary for Clarity, Transparency and Understanding According to Article 4.8 of the Paris Agreement, “Parties shall provide the information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding” based on elaboration of information elements identified in paragraph 27 of the decision 1/CP.21. In this context, The Bahamas has adopted this guidance within its capacities and this section provides supplemental descriptive, explanative, and contextual information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of NDC 3.0. Table 8.1: Information for Clarity, Transparency and Understanding (ICTU) applicable to The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 1. Reference Point (including, as appropriate, a base year) a. Reference year(s), base year(s), reference Reference year for The Bahamas NDC 3.0 is 2010. period(s) or other starting point(s) The reference indicator is the net total GHG emissions in 2035. b. Quantifiable information on the reference The Bahamas NDC 2.0 indicated two reference points indicators, their values in the reference year(s), as BaU for 2030 and 2010 base year. This NDC 3.0 base year(s), reference period(s) or other retains only the base year of 2010 with GHG emissions starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the estimated from The Bahamas National Inventory Report target year (NIR) of its First Biennial Update Report (BUR1) and Third National Communications (NC3). The net GHG emissions for 2010 is estimated at 5926.03 GgCO2eq. c. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or policies and measures as components of Nationally Determined This is not applicable to The Bahamas. Contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information The Bahamas commits to reducing its GHG emissions d. Target relative to the reference indicator, by 30% compared to its 2010 emissions level and expressed numerically, for example in having at 45% renewables in the country’s energy mix percentage or amount of reduction by 2035. The sources of data used in quantifying the reference points can be found in The Bahamas First Biennial Update report (BUR1) and updated information provided e. Information on sources of data used in by: quantifying the reference point(s) - The Bahamas National Census Data - The Bahamas Power and Light Company - The Grand Bahama Power Company 90 The 2010 base year data may be recalculated and updated due to continuous methodological improvements in the national GHG inventory. Information on updates made will be included in The Bahamas’ Biennial Transparency Reports (BTR), The f. Information on the circumstances under which Bahamas’ National Communications (NC) and any the Party may update the values of the National Inventory Reports (NIR) submitted by The reference indicators Bahamas subsequent to this NDC 3.0 report. It is anticipated that due to strong capacity building support and advances in the best available MRV science, degradation of the LULUCF sector, particularly blue carbon sinks, will lead to an increase in accuracy of emissions. 2. Time frame and/or periods for implementation The targets are a continuous and expansion of efforts a. Time frame and/or period for implementation, listed in the first and second NDC, to meet the target for including start and end date, consistent with any 2030. The Bahamas has begun to implement these further relevant decision adopted by the CMA; targets but noting the new end year for completion is 2035. b. Whether it is a single-year or multiyear target, Single-year target (2035) as applicable. 3. Scope and coverage The Bahamas’ 2035 is sector-wide absolute emissions reductions single year target, using 2010 as the base year. The emissions reduction efforts focus on the energy sector including energy demand, electricity a. General description of the target generation and transport, the waste sector linked to electricity generation and the LULUCF sector. The IPPU sector is included as a mitigation action as per efforts related to the Kigali Amendment to Montreal Protocol. Sectors covered: ● Energy (Electricity generation, energy demand) ● Transportation ● LULUCF b. Sectors, gases, categories and pools ● Waste covered by the nationally determined ● IPPU (HFC’s reduction) contribution, including, as applicable, consistent Gases: with IPCC guidelines; ● Carbon dioxide ● Methane ● Nitrous Oxide ● HFCs (in subsequent iterations of the BTR) 91 The Bahamas as per paragraph 31 (c) in NDC 2.0 extended the NDC to all categories of anthropogenic emissions but the modelling of emissions reductions and projections was not done for all sectors. In the NDC 3.0, The Bahamas assessed whether all sources and sinks should be included in the NDC, and concluded that the concentration should be on the key sectors with inclusion of the other sectors in subsequent NDC iterations. The Bahamas has therefore included five key sectors, excluding the Agriculture sector which contributes approximately 2% of total national emissions c. How the Party has taken into consideration and is not considered as a key category sector based paragraphs 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21; on the latest national inventory report from The Bahamas’ first BUR. The Bahamas also recognises that 1/CP.21 31(c) and (d) state there are some estimation gaps related to GHG data (c) Parties strive to include all categories of identified in the First Biennial Update Report (BUR1) and anthropogenic emissions or removals in their the Third National Communications (NC3) and will nationally determined contributions and, once a prioritise addressing these gaps in future cycles of the source, sink or activity is included, continue to inventory under the Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) include it; and subsequent National Communications (NC) reports. (d) Parties shall provide an explanation of why As The Bahamas continually strives to be a climate any categories of anthropogenic emissions or thought and action leader, we are reviewing ways to removals are excluded; utilise emerging and best available scientific advances which will enable a full national greenhouse gas inventory for the marine sector. In addition, although not modelled, The Bahamas as party to the Montreal Protocol has ratified the Kigali Amendment in May 2023 and is currently in the development of its Kigali Implementation Plan (KIP). As a result it is expected that data improvements will be made in the IPPU sector and therefore this sector has been included in NDC 3.0. d. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic Some of the proposed adaptation actions have diversification plans, including description of mitigation co-benefits as they will contribute to GHG specific projects, measures and initiatives of reduction. Further details in Chapter 6. Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. 4. Planning Processes a. Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its NDC and, if See Chapter 4 available, on the Party’s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: (i) Domestic institutional arrangements, public Led by the Climate Change and Environmental Advisory participation and engagement with local Unit (CCEAU) in the Office of the Prime Minister and 92 communities and indigenous peoples, in a building on activities previously conducted by the gender responsive manner; CCEAU, consultative processes were arranged with stakeholders, including, government, private sector, NGOs, and youth. The validation of the NDC was done through several bilateral meetings and exchanges, and built on extensive work already being conducted by various ministries. Further public consultation will be done on sensitisation and awareness of the general public to the NDC 3.0 document. The Bahamas NDC 3.0 was submitted and endorsed by its Cabinet of Ministers in October/November 2025. (ii) Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate: iia.) National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development and poverty eradication (iib.) Best practices and experience related to See Chapters 1, 2 and 4 the preparation of the nationally determined contribution (iic.) Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement; b. Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organisations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under The Bahamas is not part of an agreement to act jointly

Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, n/a 16 paragraphs 16 18, of the Paris Agreement The first Global Stocktake took place in 2023, calling for the tripling of renewable energy efforts and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 (UNFCCC Decision CMA5, 2023). As outlined in c. How the Party’s preparation of its NDC has Chapter 6 of the NDC 3.0, The country has made been informed by the outcomes of the global several strides to implement actions in line with the stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, outcomes of the GST and to report progress on paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement; achieving its target. The Bahamas has also made efforts to submit updated NDCs every five years, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9 of the Paris Agreement. In addition, The Bahamas has acknowledged 93 FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/10. This report, synthesises information from 168 Nationally Determined Contributions communicated by 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement and recorded in the registry of Nationally Determined Contributions as of 9 September 2024. The Bahamas takes note of this report, in particular paragraph 10 regarding global peaking by 2030. This workflow highlighted by the UNFCCC Secretariat is the type of work flow The Bahamas envisages to deliver enhanced conditional ambition and the financing to realise emission reductions. The Bahamas in NDC 3.0 will continue to pursue significant potential of blue carbon to support enhanced ambition in climate mitigation efforts in the country. Since the submission of NDC 2.0, The Bahamas has reviewed and strengthened its renewable energy and energy efficiency interventions. The country has increased its renewable energy penetration target to at least 45% by 2035 with specific emphasis on scaling up solar photovoltaic systems and battery storage solutions across the islands. In addition, The Bahamas has undertaken significant efforts to improve data quality and availability particularly in the LULUCF sector, to enhance reporting capabilities and ensure more accurate tracking of progress towards its NDC targets. These actions reflect The Bahamas' ongoing commitment to align national climate ambition with global calls for accelerated mitigation and sustainable transition. d. Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to The effects on vulnerability, resilience, economic submit information on: transformation and standards of living were considered in developing the NDC 3.0 (i) How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in The projects concepts with mitigation co-benefits are developing the nationally determined listed in chapter 6. contribution; (ii) Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co – benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, 94 which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries. 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals The Bahamas accounts for its anthropogenic emissions and removals using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for a. Assumptions and methodological approaches National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and its 2013 used for accounting for anthropogenic supplement and 2019 refinement. These are guided by greenhouse gas emissions and removals and consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and corresponding to the Party’s nationally accounting guidance adopted by the CMA. determined contribution, consistent with The Bahamas will account for its 2035 single-year target decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting on the basis of the total net national GHG emissions guidance adopted by the CMA; reported in its National Inventory Report for the year 2035, compared to the total net national GHG emissions for the year 2010, submitted under the Paris Agreement. b. Assumptions and methodological approaches Assumptions: political stability, continuous collection of used for accounting for the implementation of activity data by the National Emissions Registry and the policies and measures or strategies in the use of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines with 2013 Wetlands nationally determined contribution; supplement and the 2019 refinements. c. If applicable, information on how the Party The estimation of emissions and removals used in will take into account existing methods and accounting for The Bahamas NDC will be reported in guidance under the Convention to account for The Bahamas National Inventory Reports which apply anthropogenic emissions and removals, in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and subsequent versions or accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the refinements as agreed by the CMA, IPCC 2013 Paris Agreement, as appropriate; Wetlands supplement and the IPCC 2019 refinements. The Bahamas emissions for CO2, CH4 and N2O are derived using Tier 1 methods of the IPCC 2006 d. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for guidelines, 2013 Wetlands supplement and the 2019 estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas refinement from 2018 but updated Tier methods may emissions and removals; apply and reported in The Bahamas National Inventory Reports applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is based on IPCC AR5. 95 The Bahamas NDC covers anthropogenic emissions and removals. The Bahamas will address non-anthropogenic emissions and subsequent removals e. Sector-, category- or activity-specific from natural disturbances on managed land in assumptions, methodologies and approaches accounting for its NDC. The carbon stock changes from consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, natural disturbances will be included in the national including, as applicable: emissions totals, as described in The Bahamas National Inventory Report. At present these emissions are only (i) Approach to addressing emissions and partially included, as emissions from fires have not been subsequent removals from natural disturbances estimated yet, consistent with the information presented on managed lands; in The Bahamas’s first BUR. This approach is (ii) Approach used to account for emissions and consistent with methodologies outlined in the IPCC 2006 removals from harvested wood products; Guidelines and the 2019 refinement. The Bahamas will (iii) Approach used to address the effects of continue to provide information on its approach to age-class structure in forests; addressing emissions and subsequent removals from natural disturbances in its future National Inventory Reports, through its BTR and NC submissions. f. Other assumptions and methodological The national reference indicators: total net GHG approaches used for understanding the emissions in CO2eq for the latest year of 2024 was nationally determined contribution and, if obtained from updated data for the energy sector, applicable, estimating corresponding emissions including electricity generated, energy demand and and removals, including: transport from the National Emissions Registry (NER) database. The non-energy sector data was obtained (i) How the reference indicators, baseline(s) where possible and was updated. The projections were and/or reference level(s), including, where performed using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform applicable, sector-, category – or (LEAP) by updating the model previously developed activity-specific reference levels, are under the BUR1 and used for NDC 2.0. The drivers used constructed, including, for example, key were population, households, GDP, and GDP per parameters, assumptions, definitions, sector. methodologies, data sources and models used; (ii) For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non-greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; (iii) For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; (iv) Further technical information, as necessary. 96 The Bahamas is open to utilising voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement in the implementation of its climate targets. The country has in place a legislative and policy regime (i.e. Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act (2022) and g. The intention to use voluntary cooperation Carbon Credit Trading Act (2022)) to facilitate both under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if

Article 6 and market mechanisms in the VCM. The applicable. country’s National Emissions Registry has advanced efforts, processes and infrastructure to track and transfer ITMOs, and is developing further guidance and regulations for further operationalisation of the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Act (2022). 6. How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious, in the light of its national circumstances The Government of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas is fully committed to the Paris Agreement and recognises that global mitigation efforts must aim to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at levels that will limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Although The Bahamas’ contribution to global GHG emissions is residual, the country is pursuing a transition toward low-carbon and sustainable development. It intends to achieve its emissions-reduction targets through: (i) enhancing energy efficiency, promoting sustainable practices across key sectors, and strengthening carbon a. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair sequestration efforts; and and ambitious in the light of its national (ii) expanding renewable energy generation and circumstances; associated enabling measures. In this context, The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 reflects the country’s commitment to enhancing its mitigation ambition by 2035, building upon and strengthening the objectives established under NDC 2.0. The updated targets are underpinned by modelling analyses conducted using the Low Emissions Analysis (LEAP) software, which reflect the nation’s current economic, geographic, and infrastructural circumstances and guide the identification of realistic, data-driven pathways for decarbonisation. The Bahamas’ 2035 emissions-reduction target responds directly to the call to action of the First Global b. Fairness considerations, including reflecting Stocktake (GST), endorsed by all Parties to the Paris on equity; Agreement. This enhanced ambition reflects consideration of the best available science, as 97 recognised in the outcomes of the GST. Although The Bahamas’ contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible, the nation recognises that climate action is both a moral and developmental imperative. Its NDC 3.0 represents an increased level of ambition to mitigate the impacts of climate change on current and future generations, particularly given the country’s high vulnerability to sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and tropical cyclones. The Bahamas acknowledges that actions taken today to protect the climate system will yield profound benefits for the people of The Bahamas and for small island communities worldwide. The Bahamas is committed to ensuring that the implementation of its NDC is gender-responsive, youth-inclusive, and supportive of vulnerable communities across the archipelago. These principles are embedded within the country’s broader development and climate policy frameworks, ensuring that the transition to a low-carbon economy is both equitable and inclusive. The Government seeks to improve the wellbeing and resilience of all Bahamians, including youth, Family Island communities, and other vulnerable groups. In implementing its 2035 target, The Bahamas will continue to partner with communities, local businesses, and regional institutions to reduce emissions, enhance energy security, and promote sustainable economic growth. The transition to a low-carbon economy will prioritise consultation, fairness, and shared benefits, ensuring that all Bahamians can participate in and benefit from the nation’s climate transformation. The Bahamas NDC 3.0 represents a significant enhancement in the first and second NDCs. The NDC 3.0 sets a fixed reference year period to 2010 which would stabilise the estimation of reduction for the NDC targets. c. How the Party has addressed Article 4, The NDC 3.0 also highlights five key sectors, energy paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement; (electricity generation, energy demand), transportation, waste and LULUCF and highlights the inclusion of the IPPU sector once data becomes available. The NDC 3.0 strengthens the renewable energy and energy targets and increases the targets for continuing the efforts in the transport sector through electrification 98 measures. The NDC 3.0 integrates with national emissions registry and national MRV efforts under the CCEAU for robust tracking and reporting. Through these measures, The Bahamas demonstrates clear progression from NDC 2.0 and reflects its highest possible ambition, taking into account its status as a small island developing state (SIDS) with unique vulnerabilities, constrained resources, and high exposure to climate risks. While national efforts are continuing from NDC 2.0 towards emissions reduction, The Bahamas emphasises the need to implement its NDC through enhanced access to climate funds through multilateral or bilateral support. This includes funding through the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and other development partners. These funds will enhance the efforts being undertaken through national resources and leverage technical capacities. The Bahamas reaffirms its commitment to continue strengthening its mitigation contributions in future NDC cycles, consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. 99 Consistent with Article 4, paragraph 4 of the Paris Agreement, The Bahamas, as a developing country Party and small island developing state (SIDS), continues to take mitigation and adaptation actions in accordance with its national circumstances, priorities, and capabilities. The NDC 3.0 strengthens both mitigation and adaptation components by: ● Enhancing sectoral actions to reduce GHG emissions across energy (electricity generation, energy demand and transport), IPPU, waste, and LULUCF; ● Advancing adaptation and resilience-building d. How the Party has addressed Article 4, measures to address increasing climate risks paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement; from sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and extreme weather events; ● Integrating climate resilience into national planning, including energy security, coastal protection, and disaster risk management; and ● Promoting equitable, gender-responsive, and community-driven approaches that safeguard livelihoods and strengthen social inclusion. Through these measures, The Bahamas demonstrates its continued commitment to contribute to the global temperature goal while enhancing its adaptive capacity and resilience, reflecting the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. In accordance with Article 4, paragraph 6 of the Paris Agreement, The Bahamas, as a small island developing state (SIDS), may prepare and communicate its nationally determined contribution (NDC) at any time, reflecting flexibility in light of its special circumstances and capacity constraints. e. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement. The NDC 3.0 has been developed using this flexibility, ensuring that the country’s commitments are ambitious yet achievable within its national context. This includes: ● Utilising simplified methodologies and available data consistent with the IPCC 2006 Guidelines and 2019 Refinement; ● Building on prior communications (NDC 1.0 and 100 2.0, BUR1, and NC3) to ensure continuity and transparency in tracking progress; and ● Reflecting flexibility in timelines, sectoral coverage, and reporting frequency consistent with national capacity, while maintaining alignment with the enhanced transparency framework (ETF). ● Reflecting plans and actions addressing adaptation and possible limits of adaptation that may result in loss and damage The Bahamas will continue to strengthen institutional arrangements and technical capacity for future NDC updates and Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), progressively expanding coverage and methodological sophistication as national systems mature. This approach ensures that The Bahamas fully upholds its obligations under the Paris Agreement while recognising the special circumstances and needs of SIDS. 7. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its

Article 2 This NDC 3.0 will contribute to "strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate a. How the NDC contributes towards achieving poverty" by reducing its contribution to global GHG the objective of the Convention as set out in its emissions that are affecting the

Article 2; climate system and implementing actions that will reduce the country’s vulnerability and improve its ability to prepare and respond to climate change, while ensuring equitable, sustainable, and resilient growth. The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 contributes to the Paris Agreement’s global temperature goal (Article 2.1(a)) and the long-term emissions balance goal (Article 4.1) by: b. How the NDC contributes towards Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of ● Strengthening mitigation ambition through the Paris Agreement. renewable energy expansion, energy efficiency improvements, and transport electrification; ● Enhancing carbon sequestration via protection and restoration of mangroves, wetlands, and other natural sinks; ● Aligning national policies with a low-emission, climate-resilient development pathway; and 101 ● Demonstrating global solidarity as a small island developing state (SIDS) committed to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Together, these actions support the collective effort to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions and removals in the second half of the century, in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. 102 9. NDC Implementation Introduction As a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), it is critical that long-lasting, flexible, and forward-looking plans are put in place to address both mitigation and adaptation in a manner that is complementary and mutually reinforcing. Implementation of climate action must be interconnected with existing and proposed policies, as well as be strategically aligned with ministries, departments, and agencies capable of carrying out the projects within the allotted time frame. However, given that the commitments outlined in NDC 3.0 are 100% conditional, the provision of international climate finance and capacity building will underpin The Bahamas’ ability to successfully implement the actions and activities, during the years 2031-2035, as outlined in NDC 3.0. The intent of this section is to highlight progress in implementation of pre-2030 NDC 2.0 actions, while also establishing baselines for new mitigation and adaptation measures. These measures are directly linked to national goals and supported by relevant policy frameworks, including, but not limited to, previous Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) being developed, the Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the National Energy Policy, etc. They will also be closely tied to ongoing reforms in disaster risk management, environmental protection, and sustainable financing. Furthermore, these efforts align with global climate commitments, particularly The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Paris Agreement, ensuring that The Bahamas continues to strengthen resilience, lower emissions, and safeguard its people and ecosystems. By integrating national priorities with international frameworks, the implementation process not only demonstrates progress, but also reinforces the country’s commitment to climate-resilient development. Preparation for Implementation To ensure that the goals outlined across various sectors are implemented in a measurable and trackable manner, it is critical that a robust framework for data management is established. Each goal must be clearly defined in measurable terms, whether through quantitative indicators or qualitative benchmarks. This measurability is essential for proper monitoring, evaluation, and accountability. A key requirement is the establishment of baseline data for each adaptation and mitigation measure outlined in NDC 3.0. Baselines provide the point of reference against which progress can be measured and assessed over time. Without an accurate and 104 well-documented baseline, it becomes difficult to determine whether interventions are successful, cost-effective, or in need of adjustment. Equally important is the analysis of collected data to ensure that it provides meaningful insights into the effectiveness of actions being undertaken. Regular analysis allows for the identification of trends, gaps, and potential challenges, thereby enabling timely adjustments. Furthermore, maintaining transparency across all agencies involved is crucial. Open access to accurate data builds trust among stakeholders, strengthens inter-agency coordination, and enhances credibility at both national and international levels. With help from international agencies, this capacity can be built not only for NDC 3.0, but also for future NDCs. Critically, the effective implementation of adaptation and mitigation actions, as well as the development and maintenance of the necessary data systems requires significant and sustained financial support. Adequate financing is essential to ensure that technical infrastructure, institutional capacity, and human resources are in place to support the collection, management, and analysis of climate data. Moreover, financing is needed to implement the strategies being tracked, given the unique vulnerabilities and limited fiscal space of SIDS like The Bahamas. Ultimately, a strong data management system not only supports progress tracking but also ensures accountability, facilitates reporting to international partners, and informs evidence-based decision-making for future climate action strategies. Baseline Studies Needed The Bahamas continues to strengthen its climate-related data tracking to ensure that national goals are properly monitored. Baseline data and monitoring systems are being established through key institutions such as the National Emissions Registry (NER), which is responsible for tracking all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the country and maintaining comprehensive records. This foundational data allows for informed strategies aimed at reducing GHG emissions. Other government departments and ministries are also developing and tracking their own baselines, while the Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI) serves as a central repository for socio-economic information, including labour reports, GDP data, and population statistics. Additionally, national initiatives include regular updates to the GHG inventory, vulnerability and risk assessments, and socio-economic impact studies. There is also coordination between agencies to conduct climate and disaster risk budget tagging exercises on an annual basis, which will also contribute towards strengthened climate-related data tracking efforts. 105 The country is currently developing a Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system to generate information on progress in the implementation of the NDC, as well as information on funding, technology transfer and capacity building support requested and received. Once fully implemented, this system will allow for the proper monitoring of the NDC actions through the application of monitoring indicators for mitigation and adaptation goals that will, in turn, measure the success of each action and identify corrections, adjustments and updates as needed. There has been significant capacity built for Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) within The Bahamas. One example includes, the Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT) project, which provided training on emissions accounting across five IPCC sectors and the application of the three methodological tiers, NDC tracking, gap assessments, and climate data management. These trainings were delivered to several agencies across the country including, but not limited to, the National Emissions Registry (NER), the Climate Change and Environmental Advisory Unit (CCEAU), the Department of Environmental Planning and Protection (DEPP), other member agencies represented on the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) and the private sector. Training provided by this project enhanced awareness and knowledge of useful resources and skillsets that support work done throughout various national agencies as it relates to climate change. The CBIT Project built upon previous efforts in the country to advance GHG management and climate MRV systems. Moreover, some technical officers were able to have training, beyond CBIT, reinforced through participation in advanced courses offered by the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute (GHGMI) in cross-cutting issues, energy, agriculture, and waste. Additionally, the CCEAU, NER, and BPL, were able to enhance their capacities in modeling emissions scenarios through hands-on training with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) facilitated by the Caribbean Cooperative MRV Hub. The Bahamas has also built capacity through a joint training programme with the Government of New Zealand and the Caribbean Cooperative MRV Hub to enhance data for the agriculture sector. The outcome of this training will be access to Tier 2 agricultural GHG inventory data to support more robust (future) National Inventory Reports. Additionally, the National Emissions Registry’s domestic emissions reporting online platform has set a standard that will eventually allow future NIRs to utilise Tier 2 Energy data. NDC Progress Since the submission of NDC 2.0, The Bahamas has made notable progress on several goals outlined in the document. 106 Significant strides have been made in advancing climate legislation, with new and updated frameworks now in place to address both adaptation and mitigation. These efforts, outlined in detail in the Policy Framework section, have provided a stronger legal foundation for climate action. In addition, innovative financial mechanisms such as the Debt Conversion Project for Marine Conservation continues to propel the country forward by linking fiscal sustainability with environmental protection (Office of the Prime Minister, 2024). The introduction of the Green Choice Exemption Programme further supports this NDC implementation, by offering incentives for households and businesses to invest in energy-efficient appliances (The Government of The Bahamas, 2025). In the transportation sector, a significant portion of the Government’s fleet has been replaced with electric vehicles (EVs), marking an important step in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from this sector. Additionally, import tariffs on electric vehicles have been reduced, and improved financing options, such as green loans in both the public and private sector, are now available to incentivise their purchase. As a result, there has been a significant uptick in EV imports into the country, and EV utilisation across residential and business consumers. This shift has been further bolstered by the expansion of electric vehicle charging networks across New Providence, including fast chargers, ensuring that infrastructure is in place to support wider adoption of e-mobility. There has also been increased competition among EV dealerships in the country, signaling increased demand for this low emission product. Waste management is another area of progress. Construction is underway on a state-of-the-art Recycling Centre in New Providence, designed to reduce landfill dependency, improve resource recovery, and enhance the sustainability of waste disposal systems (The Government of The Bahamas, 2024). Energy transition efforts have also accelerated, particularly through the implementation of the Government's New Energy Era and National Energy Policy 2025-2030 (Office of the Prime Minister, 2025b). Moreover, in Grand Bahama, construction has begun on a solar farm that will diversify the island’s energy mix, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and strengthen resilience against external energy shocks. Recent legislative reforms have also introduced greater incentives for renewable energy adoption, creating an enabling environment for both public and private sector investment. Similarly to EVs, reduced import tariffs on solar panels and renewable energy equipment, paired with improved financing options, in both the public and private sector, have resulted in increased uptake of renewable energy systems in residential and commercial properties. The Bahamas has advanced biodiversity conservation as well, with a strong focus on ecosystem restoration on Andros. Ongoing initiatives are rehabilitating key habitats, 107 safeguarding natural resources, and strengthening coastal resilience. These conservation projects are closely tied to community education programmes, ensuring that local populations are engaged, empowered, and equipped to participate in long-term environmental stewardship. Collectively, these achievements highlight meaningful progress toward the commitments set out in NDC 2.0. They also demonstrate The Bahamas’ commitment to building climate resilience, fostering sustainable development, and positioning the country as a regional leader in innovative climate action. Figure 9.1: Current Institutional Arrangements Sankey Diagram Institutional Arrangements Effectively ensuring the successful implementation of NDC 3.0 requires establishing flexible and sustainable institutional arrangements that facilitate coordination among intergovernmental agencies, private sector entities, and other key stakeholders including civil society. There has been some changes in the Institutional Arrangements since the last iteration of the NDC and are as follows: 108 Table 9.1: New Institutional Arrangements Name Responsibility Parent Ministry Has responsibility for the development, implementation and review of Climate Change national climate policies and plans, adaptation/mitigation strategies, the and development and submission of national climate reports; the Office of the Prime Environmental mobilisation of climate finance; the fund for loss and damage; Minister Advisory Unit international Climate negotiations; administration of the Carbon (CCEAU) markets; Action for Climate Empowerment and for the mainstreaming of climate change into national planning. National Collects, manages, and reports national greenhouse gas (GHG) Office of the Prime Emissions emissions data; supports NDC tracking, transparency frameworks, and Minister Registry (NER) modeling of emissions scenarios. Disaster Risk Leads national disaster preparedness, response, and recovery; Ministry of Disaster Risk Management integrates climate resilience and risk reduction into development Management (DRM) Authority planning. Develops and implements energy and transport policies; leads Ministry of Energy Ministry of Energy and renewable energy transition, energy efficiency programmes, and and Transport Transport sustainable transport strategies aligned with NDC targets. Provides high-level coordination on climate policy, finance, adaptation, mitigation, and reporting; endorses climate-related projects and High-Level ensures alignment with government and SDG objectives. Membership Climate Policy Co-Chaired by the DRM spans senior administrators (Directors and Asst. Directors) from key Authority and CCEAU Committee government bodies, including the Ministries of Disaster Risk Multi-agency committee (HLCPC) Management, Agriculture, Energy, Environment, Finance, Health, and others, ensuring a holistic and collaborative approach to addressing climate change nationally. Operational from 2025–2035. National Climate Acts as a national coordinating body for climate change; ensures Change multi-sector engagement, reviews policies and strategies, and advises Chaired by CCEAU on national reporting elements, policy implementation and related Committee Multi-agency committee obligations. Functions as the National Project Consultative Committee (NCCC) for national reporting to the UNFCCC and other climate organisations. Projects for Implementation The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 outlines a comprehensive set of climate mitigation and adaptation projects to be implemented between 2031-2035. Key initiatives include reducing fossil fuel dependence, conducting energy audits, expanding electric vehicle utilisation, and updating building codes to enhance resilience. Investments focus on green and grey infrastructure such as storm-resilient construction, sustainable transport, and coastal ecosystem restoration to enhance national climate resilience. The strategy will require innovative funding methods, improved access to climate data, supporting climate-smart agriculture, restoring biodiversity, and strengthening the health system through the Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP). Progress will be monitored through programmes like the Race for 109 Resilience (R4R), the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), and Sectoral Adaptation Plans (SAPs), and the National Emissions Registry, with success dependent on continued funding and stakeholder engagement. Timeline of Implementation Despite the five-year implementation period of NDC 3.0, some proposed projects may extend beyond this timeframe. Several initiatives are expected to begin during this period but may not reach full completion within it. However, measurable progress should be achieved, and the subsequent NDC will assess whether the targets for each implementation goal have been met or missed. To ensure timely and effective implementation, adequate and sustained financing will be essential throughout this period. Many of the adaptation and mitigation projects outlined require significant investment upfront as well as long-term financial support to maintain momentum and ensure scalability. Mobilising climate finance from both domestic and international sources will be critical to starting projects on schedule, addressing potential delays, and achieving the intended outcomes within or beyond the NDC 3.0 timeline. Effect of Implementation The implementation of climate-resilient infrastructure and systems across The Bahamas is expected to significantly strengthen national adaptive capacity while generating important co-benefits. These efforts will have wide-reaching impacts across multiple sectors, ensuring the country is better prepared for the effects of climate change. Restoration initiatives will target degraded ecosystems, improving environmental health and resilience. The adoption and enforcement of an updated, climate-resilient building code will ensure that new infrastructure is designed to withstand climate-related hazards. Simultaneously, the development of climate-resilient food systems will be advanced through the introduction of clean-energy cold storage, modular agro-processing facilities, regenerative agriculture practices, and livelihood diversification. These initiatives will particularly benefit women and youth by enhancing food security and creating new economic opportunities. Housing initiatives, such as strategically planned resilient communities and a Revitalised Properties Programme, will reduce household vulnerability through the integration of solar power, water security systems, and risk-based insurance into both new and retrofitted homes. Public infrastructure including clinics, schools, markets, and government buildings will undergo solarisation and energy-efficiency upgrades. The transition to electric vehicle (EV) fleets and the expansion of charging infrastructure will contribute to a broader low-carbon transformation of the national economy. 110 Lastly, data collection, modeling, and forecasting will play a crucial role in preparedness and adaptation. By providing localised information such as flood maps and agricultural forecasts, individuals, particularly farmers, will be better equipped to adapt to climate change at a personal level. This person-centred approach enhances not only physical safety during disasters, but also improves access to water, healthcare, and education. Overall, the implementation will result in a more resilient population with improved well-being, strengthened infrastructure, and increased adaptive knowledge at both community and national levels. 111 10. NDC Financing Financing NDC 3.0 is central to The Bahamas’ ability to deliver on its climate commitments. This section outlines the country’s financing context, strategies, and readiness to access and channel international climate finance in partnership with bilateral, multilateral, philanthropic, and private sector actors. Introduction The Bahamas is keen to accelerate climate action through robust and ambitious measures from NDC 2.0 to NDC 3.0, having taken steps to support these advancements with policy and legislative measures that clearly outline the need for sustainable development, resilient infrastructure, and provision of government-driven incentives to support private sector investments. And while these efforts are notable, The Bahamas’ updated 2022 NDC has shown an imbalance in climate finance inflows into the country. Nearly $155 million was received between 2010 and 2020, with $140 million earmarked for mitigation, and $15 million for adaptation. The country has shown a willingness to document its priorities, outline its plans, secure partnerships, and make legislative and policy changes, but adaptation has to be better supported by international partners, and it must be balanced. For example, The Bahamas’ Health Adaptation Plan (HNAP), finalised and approved in 2024, has an implementation cost of $127M USD for the period ending in 2030. However, financial flows are not consistent with the urgency of the implementation of the HNAP. Without dedicated, international support, the cost of inaction will result in ballooning adaptation expenditures, in the health sector, for The Bahamas that are likely to roll over into NDC 3.0. Moreover, as a SIDS, located in the middle of “hurricane alley”, it is critical that adequate emergency housing to protect citizens before, during, and after a hurricane passes through The Bahamas is available. Currently, The Bahamas has the capacity to house 3% of its population in purposefully built hurricane shelters. However, it is striving to attain at least 10% population coverage. With the probability of increasing extreme weather events, as a result of climate change, being extremely likely based on the current trajectory of global climate action, the costs to expand multi-purpose emergency shelters should not be borne alone by the people of The Bahamas. It is against this backdrop that the country’s NDC 3.0 has highlighted a greater need for more ambitious adaptation measures, recognising that even if The Bahamas was to 113 transition to a net zero economy today, this would still not be enough to eliminate its vulnerabilities to the existential threats of climate change. It is further noted that the indicative cost for The Bahamas’ identified NDC 2.0 measures through 2030 is in excess of USD $4000 million for mitigation and adaptation actions. Unfortnately, NDC 3.0 does not have fully costed estimates for the implementation of its mitigation and adaptation actions. The Bahamas will require technical assistance to conduct this activity for its prioritised actions. Moreover, with just a little over 5 years left before the next NDC implementation period (NDC 3.0) and limited adaptation finance flows into the country, a reassessment of NDC 2.0 adaptation costs will likely have to be conducted, in tandem with the country’s plans to develop a costed implementation plan for its NAP and 4 SAPs, no later than the year 2028. Constrained Fiscal Space and Structural Vulnerability Financing NDC 3.0 is central to The Bahamas’ ability to deliver on its climate commitments. However, the compounded costs of recovery from repeated climate shocks, building long-term resilience, and advancing the energy transition far exceeds the fiscal capacity of the country. These pressures are further magnified by the structural realities of an archipelagic state, where dispersed geographies significantly raise the cost of climate investments and service delivery. Although classified as high-income on the basis of GDP per capita, this designation masks the stark reality of small island vulnerability. The Bahamas remains among the most climate-exposed countries in the world, with high dependence on external markets and limited fiscal resilience. Nowhere is this clearer than in disaster losses: in a single day, a major storm can erase up to 25 percent of national GDP (case of Hurricane Dorian in 2019), thereby, reversing years of development gains. The consequence is a paradox. The high-income classification restricts access to concessional financing, even as climate shocks impose some of the highest disaster costs relative to GDP globally. This leaves urgent climate and development needs unmet and prevents finances from flowing at the scale and speed required to secure a resilient and sustainable future for the country. These constraints underscore the urgency of expanding access to concessional and innovative finance to unlock the investments needed for NDC 3.0. Conditional and Contingent Ambition Implementation of NDC 2.0 was marked by important progress in mitigation and adaptation, but financial flows fell far short of what was required. For NDC 3.0, The Bahamas’ ambition 114 is still both conditional and contingent upon international support. Specifically, implementation is conditional on the availability of adequate climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building support from developed countries, as articulated under the Paris Agreement. Article 6 cooperative approaches targeting Party buyers for cooperative approaches, adjusted NDC purposes, and other purposes (Corporates/Philanthropic), will drive the quantum of enhanced ambition. In this regard, The Bahamas is engaged with the

Article 6 Implementation Partnership (A6IP) to formalise A6 readiness support. The Bahamas will continue to act within its means, but the ambition of NDC 3.0 can only be realised through international solidarity and in the spirit of common, but differentiated responsibilities. This reflects a principle consistently raised by the country in international engagements which strongly advocates that climate ambition in highly vulnerable states must be matched by climate finance commensurate with the scale of the challenge. Strategic and Innovative Financing Approaches The country recognises that delivering the ambition of NDC 3.0 will require financing solutions that go beyond traditional models. The scale of investment needed for resilience, recovery, and transition is unprecedented, and no single instrument or partnership can address this challenge alone. The country will therefore adopt a financing pathway that is pragmatic, innovative, and flexible - drawing lessons from past initiatives, engaging new partners, and embracing emerging mechanisms. This strategy is designed to reduce the cost of capital, diversify sources of investment, and ensure that financing flows are aligned with national priorities while remaining accessible to communities on the frontlines. Concessional Finance Concessional finance will remain a cornerstone of The Bahamas’ strategy. Grants and highly concessional loans are essential to de-risk projects, lower the overall cost of climate investment, and ensure that debt sustainability is preserved. These resources will be leveraged to mobilise private capital, philanthropic contributions, and new financial modalities. The Bahamas will continue to prioritise engagement with international climate funds such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Adaptation Fund (AF), while expanding access to concessional windows offered by multilateral development banks (MDBs) and bilateral partners. A central focus is achieving direct access to these funds, enabling greater efficiency, stronger national ownership, and alignment with local priorities. Green Climate Fund Since 2022, The Bahamas has leveraged a number of opportunities through the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Its project pipeline includes: 115 ● $1M USD readiness grant to enhance the country’s capacity for direct access to climate finance. A priority objective for The Bahamas is to have at least two in-country Direct Access Entities (DAEs); this grant aids in achieving this objective. This grant will also result in the development of a Climate Investment Framework and Climate Finance Strategic Guide for the country. In addition, a Prioritisation Tool is being developed to support the country in comparing projects against key metrics such as national priorities, funding agency preferences, and project alignment. This tool will assist in determining which projects should be advanced and how best to target financing. ● $3M USD readiness grant to develop its National Adaptation Plan (NAP). In addition to the NAP, the grant will also involve development of Sectoral Adaptation Plans (SAPs) for agriculture, coastal and marine, critical infrastructure, and tourism. This will result in 5 SAPs for the country, as a HNAP was finalised in 2024 (with an implementation cost of $127M USD). The readiness grant will also support an update to the country’s 2005 National Climate Change Adaptation Policy and development of climate change risk and vulnerability maps for four islands in the archipelagic nation. ● $64M USD project for increasing the climate resilience of the water sector. This project is currently under review and will involve policy strengthening for the sector as well as the establishment of a national water resources monitoring network and decision support system to inform climate risk assessments. ● GCF also supported consultations on national projects to produce a detailed list of concepts and ideas that informed The Bahamas GCF Country Programme (CP) 2025-2031. The completed CP will be published in the last quarter of 2025. This programme identifies five priority projects for consideration, providing a framework for preparing concept notes aligned with nationally agreed priorities. Such alignment will help streamline proposals submitted to funding agencies. The Bahamas is also participating in the new GCF Expert Placement Scheme and now has a GCF Liaison Officer in the country to provide essential support to the NDA in all matters concerning GCF climate action. Blended Finance Building on concessional finance, The Bahamas will actively pursue blended finance solutions in collaboration with development banks, bilateral donors, and private investors. By pooling grants, concessional resources, and commercial financing, blended models can 116 unlock capital at scale and bring down the cost of climate investment. This approach will be particularly important in financing infrastructure, renewable energy, and nature-based solutions, where the upfront costs are high but the long-term benefits to resilience and sustainable development are significant. Private Sector Mobilisation The private sector will play a central role in financing and delivering The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0. While international public finance through grants and concessional loans remains critical, it is insufficient to meet the scale of investment required. The Government will therefore actively engage domestic and international private actors to leverage additional capital, technology, and expertise. This will include creating stable policy frameworks, fiscal incentives, and risk-sharing arrangements that attract investment into priority sectors such as resilient infrastructure, renewable energy, sustainable tourism, and nature-based solutions. Public–private partnerships (PPPs) will be expanded, while blended finance instruments will be deployed to de-risk investments and ensure that projects remain compatible with debt sustainability objectives. The Bahamas will also strengthen the role of its local financial institutions and capital markets, enabling them to participate in climate finance delivery through green bonds, resilience-linked loans, and dedicated credit lines for MSMEs. By engaging the private sector at multiple levels: domestic and international, large-scale and community-based, the country aims to mobilise long-term finance and innovation that complement public resources and accelerate the achievement of NDC 3.0 targets. Debt Solutions Recognising the weight of existing debt obligations and learning from the recently concluded $300M USD Debt Conversion Project for Marine Conservation (DCPMC), The Bahamas will continue to explore liability management tools that provide fiscal relief and redirect resources toward climate investments. Options include: restructuring high-cost debt under more favorable terms, embedding natural disaster and pandemic clauses to allow repayment flexibility, and deploying credit enhancement mechanisms to reduce borrowing costs. These options can serve as possible financing sources for the R4R Programme to unlock fiscal savings which can be leveraged to mobilise finance to fund urgently needed resilience projects at scale. Risk Protection As part of its finance strategy, The Bahamas is exploring strengthening risk protection instruments to ensure faster and more affordable responses to climate shocks. The country is also exploring expanding the use of parametric and catastrophic insurance solutions at various levels - taking into account the archipelagic make-up of the country. These 117 instruments provide rapid and predictable disbursements following climate shocks, reducing recovery time and protecting households, businesses, and government services from prolonged disruption. At the same time, the Government will pursue efforts to expand insurance penetration nationwide, including the introduction and scaling of micro-insurance products that make coverage more affordable and accessible to the most vulnerable households and small businesses. This approach is a deliberate strategy to reduce the overall cost of recovery and shorten the timeline for rebuilding after climate shocks, ensuring that communities can bounce back faster and with fewer long-term economic disruptions. These measures will be pursued in coordination with regional and global insurance initiatives to maximise efficiency, affordability, and inclusivity. The Bahamas will also work to integrate climate risk insurance with social protection schemes, ensuring that payouts are not only rapid, but also complement safety nets for the most vulnerable. Place-Based Finance Solutions As host to several international financial institutions and multinational enterprises, The Bahamas emphasises the importance of place-based finance solutions. These institutions are invited to actively contribute to the climate agenda in the very places where they operate, ensuring that their presence translates into concrete financing, technical support, and co-investment in local priorities. For The Bahamas, this is particularly important given its role as an international financial hub and service economy. Institutions that derive value from operating in the country are invited to reinvest in strengthening its resilience to climate shocks, aligning their global commitments with the urgent needs of local communities. This approach is consistent with the country’s broader advocacy for reforms in the global financial system, ensuring that institutions are not only global in mandate but also local in impact. Pipeline The Bahamas recognises that mobilising finance depends on a strong pipeline of bankable projects. To this end, the Government is strengthening project preparation capacity and establishing a dedicated climate programme and project development unit. These units will coordinate across agencies to identify priorities, design high-quality proposals, and work with partners to bring projects to financial close. The objective is to create a predictable and transparent flow of projects that can be readily matched with financing instruments and partners, ensuring faster access and smoother implementation. Capacity Strengthening national capacity is central to The Bahamas’ ability to access, manage, and deliver climate finance at scale. Effective implementation of NDC 3.0 requires robust 118 institutions, skilled human resources, and systems that can design, absorb, and account for financing flows in line with international standards. The Government is therefore establishing institutional reforms to ensure climate finance readiness. With the legal establishment of a Climate Change Unit mandated to coordinate national climate finance strategies, consolidate cross-agency ownership, and serve as the focal point for engagement with international partners. The Unit will also have the responsibility for programme and project preparation to design a pipeline of high-quality, bankable projects that align with the NDC priorities and national development goals. Capacity building will also extend to the private sector and financial institutions, enabling them to participate more actively in climate investment through instruments such as resilience-linked lending, green bonds, and credit lines for MSMEs. This dual approach ensures that both public and private actors can mobilise and manage resources effectively. At the same time, capacity building must also extend into local government. The Bahamas operates a system of local government across the Family Islands (outside New Providence) through Family Island Administrators and District Councils empowered under the Local Government Act 2024. These local entities shoulder responsibilities such as infrastructure oversight, chairing disaster risk management consultative committees (CC) before, during and after storms, reporting to central authorities, and addressing island-specific needs. Strengthening the capacity of these local government offices through training, resources, coordination, and clearer mandates will be critical to ensuring that finance and implementation reach all levels and islands in an equitable and efficient way. Race for Resilience (R4R) To demonstrate institutional readiness to access, absorb, and effectively channel climate finance, the Government of The Bahamas intends to operationalise two vertically integrated2 finance mechanisms under the Race for Resilience (R4R) programme. This vertically integrated approach ensures that financing flows are coordinated across national, sectoral, and community levels, creating a seamless pathway from large-scale infrastructure investments to locally led adaptation. These mechanisms are being structured to meet the fiduciary, safeguard, and transparency requirements of international climate funds, ensuring confidence among partners that financing flows will be well-governed, aligned with national priorities, and delivered efficiently to those most in need. 2 Vertical integration is a strategy where an entity brings previously outsourced operations in-house to cut costs and streamline its operations. 119 Climate Resilient Infrastructure Fund (CRIF) At the national level, the Climate Resilient Infrastructure Fund (CRIF), which will operationalise under the legal premise of the National Investments Act of 2022, will blend domestic and international grants, concessional loans, and private capital to finance large-scale climate-resilient infrastructure in health, transport, energy, and food systems. It will serve as a national platform for pooling diverse sources of climate finance, lowering transaction costs, and accelerating the delivery of transformative investments. Local Adaptation Financing Facility (LAFF) At the local level, the Local Adaptation Financing Facility (LAFF) will provide direct access to finance at the subnational level, featuring a grant window for local governments and community organisations, as well as revolving loan facilities for MSMEs and households. By prioritising locally led adaptation, LAFF ensures that finance reaches communities on the frontlines of climate impacts, while strengthening accountability and ownership at the grassroots level. These vertically integrated finance mechanisms form the backbone of The Bahamas’ climate finance readiness architecture. They provide the institutional mechanisms needed to attract, manage, and deploy financing at scale, while offering assurance to bilateral, multilateral, and private partners that The Bahamas is prepared to convert financial commitments into effective, timely, and measurable climate action. Climate & Disaster Tagging (CDT) The Government of The Bahamas has advanced its climate and disaster governance through the introduction of a Climate Spending Report and the endorsment of a Budget Tagging Methodology, mandated under the Disaster Risk Management Act 2022. Climate & Disaster Tagging (CDT) allows the Government to better identify, manage, and report climate and disaster-related expenditures. The methodology not only improves accountability but also ensures resources are strategically directed toward resilience-building measures that align with both national legislation and international commitments, including the Paris Agreement and Sendai Framework. Moreover, The Bahamas is expected to benefit from: ● Greater ability to monitor, manage, prioritise, and report on climate-smart and disaster-resilient investments, thereby strengthening public investment management and aligning with ongoing public financial management reforms; ● Deepen understanding of spending on climate related activities and disasters by phase (before and after events), sector, and programme; ● Enhance access and mobilisation of climate and disaster finance for long-term resilience. 120 Some challenges in CDT include: programme classification and data traceability, given that existing programme objectives in budget documents are sometimes limited for facilitating robust tagging. It is further argued that as a SIDS, it is nearly impossible to separate expenditure on development and expenditure on climate action given that climate change impacts the daily lives of island residents. However, the clear commitment to rationalise the Chart of Accounts ensures that climate and disaster expenditures can be validated at each budget level and directly linked to outcomes in these relevant areas. Loss and Damage The Bahamas underscores the need for predictable and accessible financing to address Loss and Damage from climate change. Given the scale of impacts relative to the size of the economy, losses often exceed the country’s ability to recover through domestic resources alone. The Government will actively seek to access new and emerging loss and damage funding streams under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement processes, while working with partners to ensure that funding is delivered quickly, transparently, and in a manner aligned with national systems and needs. Commitment to Collaboration The Bahamas will continue to deepen collaboration with bilateral and multilateral partners, philanthropic actors, and private investors. Public–private partnerships will remain an important avenue for mobilising long-term investment in resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions. Stable policy frameworks, fiscal incentives, and innovative project design will provide the enabling environment for collaboration, while concessional finance will be used strategically to de-risk investments and crowd in private capital. The Government will also continue to advocate for simplified and faster disbursement of climate finance, mindful of the realities of SIDS. The Bahamas is committed to doing its part in achieving the ambition of NDC 3.0. It will continue to integrate climate resilience into national planning, improve fiscal efficiency, and strengthen governance systems for climate finance. But, the scale of investment required goes far beyond what can be mobilised domestically. However, by combining domestic efforts with scaled-up international support, The Bahamas’ NDC 3.0 can be transformed from a conditional commitment into a concrete reality, delivering resilience, advancing the energy transition, and securing sustainable development for present and future generations of Bahamians. 121 References Baastel (2023). Climate risk and vulnerability assessment for coastal ecosystems and communities of The Bahamas. Final Report. Bailey, P. (2025) “Storm shutdown: Tropical Storm Imelda hits New Providence, heads for GB, Abaco”, The Tribune, 29 September. Available at: https://www.tribune242.com/news/2025/sep/29/storm-shutdown-tropical-storm-imelda-hits-new-provi dence-heads-for-gb-abaco/ (Accessed: 7 October 2025). BNSI (2024a) 2022 Census of Population and Housing. Available at: https://cdn.bahamas.gov.bs/tenant/tenantbnsi/documents/2022-Census-Report-1st-Release-12-Febr uary-2025-FINAL-20250526040559.pdf BNSI (2024b) Quarterly GDP Press Release 2024. 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Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank. 127 Annex A. Surveys from stakeholder engagement exercise Adaptation Survey NDC 3.0 is currently being developed by the Climate Change and Environmental Advisory Unit. Stakeholder engagement is a key component in ensuring a cohesive document which is verified by all vested parties. The CCEAU is therefore kindly requesting your participation in the following google form. Please review the following contextual information and diagram then consider the questions that follow. Your detailed responses will provide us with useful insights on the three horizons for adaptation in The Bahamas and inform the adaptation contribution of NDC 3.0. Key Terms: Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) - "The Paris Agreement (Article 4, paragraph 2)[requires each Party to prepare, communicate and maintain successive [increasingly ambitious] NDCs [to be implemented in five year cycles] that it intends to achieve. [These reports from Parties] embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change." (UNFCCC) Climate Change Adaptation - "refers to adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects. It refers to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change. In simple terms, countries and communities need to develop adaptation solutions and implement actions to respond to current and future climate change impacts." (UNFCCC) Three Horizons Framework - "a strategic foresight tool designed to consider different "horizons" of time simultaneously. Rather than looking at the future as a straight line or a single outcome, this framework encourages a systems-thinking approach, blending the present, the transitional period, and the long-term vision into a cohesive strategy for change." (i&f) The Three Horizons for Adaptation in The Bahamas The first horizon illustrates a business as usual (BAU) trendline for adaptation. Adaptation efforts before now have been oriented around dated policy frameworks and supported by traditional international mechanisms. Eventually, BAU will reach its 129 peak then become less and less viable to support local adaptation needs. The expectation that such a reality is imminent, paired with the damaging effects of climate change, inspires innovations that facilitate a transition toward the future. The second horizon consists of innovative adaptation efforts underscored by experimentation, learning and reiteration. This transitional era features direct responses to present challenges identified in Horizon 1 in order to fill gaps, create opportunities and meet needs with novel ideas, thereby enabling Horizon 3 to take shape. Finally, the third horizon represents the future being envisioned now. It will leverage some of the foundational efforts and lessons from Horizon 1 in order to incorporate successful innovations and best practices from Horizon 2 into future adaptation efforts. Ultimately, these three horizons outline and support the decision-making journey necessary to secure climate resilience for The Bahamas. Horizon 1: Current patterns that sustain the status quo. 1. What is the adaptation ‘status quo’ and how has it been shaped? 2. What needs to be sustained, improved, or phased out? Horizon 2: Transitional activities shaping the shift from present to future. 1. What innovations are shaping the transition from present to future? 2. What efforts are missing and how would introducing them support a successful shift? Horizon 3: Emerging future patterns that signal long-term change. 1. What is the future outlook for adaptation across the archipelago? 2. What specific elements, recognizable now, are signaling that future reality? Adaptation Targets: Updating our adaptation targets increases national ambition, creating opportunities for achieving adaptation goals 1. Are there any specific adaptation targets that should be considered for the implementation of NDC 3.0 (2031 - 2035)? Feedback: Detailed feedback facilitates our learning and enables us to enhance future stakeholder engagement. 1. Please share any feedback on this exercise and/or the application of the three horizons approach in NDC 3.0. 130 Mitigation Survey This form is intended to collect stakeholder input on the progress or lack thereof made toward the 2022 NDC mitigation actions. Please complete this form using the accompanying Excel sheet, which provides a listing of all 41 mitigation actions. 1. Of the 41 mitigation actions, which ones are we making progress on? a. Please provide your reasoning for each of the above, including any relevant references. 2. Of the 41 mitigation actions, which ones are we stagnating on? a. Please provide your reasoning for each of the above, including any relevant references. 3. Of the 41 mitigation actions, which ones are we regressing on? a. Please provide your reasoning for each of the above, including any relevant references. 4. The NDC 2.0 referenced 41 mitigation actions. What additional mitigation actions should be included in NDC 3.0 to enhance climate resilience? 5. Which of the 41 mitigation actions are no longer considered a priority or relevant? 131 B. Tables detailing the Gaps, Opportunities, and Needs for Priority Sectors Table B.1: Outlines Gaps across Priority Sectors Gaps Sectors Social Environmental Economic Multidimensional Limited community Coral reefs continue to Heavy economic Economic engagement in coastal degrade due to reliance on vulnerable dependence of management, bleaching, disease, coastal ecosystems for coastal communities particularly in Family and unsustainable tourism and fisheries on fisheries and Islands where fishing practices creates systemic risk tourism increases livelihoods depend social vulnerability to heavily on fishing and climate impacts and small-scale tourism accelerates environmental degradation Public awareness gaps Mangrove and Losses and damages Limited access to on the links between seagrass ecosystems from hurricanes and finance for ecosystem healthy ecosystems face deforestation, erosion threaten restoration is and climate resilience dredging, and pollution national revenues compounded by weak pressures institutional enforcement of ICZM regulations, leaving both ecosystems and livelihoods Coastal & Marine unprotected. Resources Vulnerable coastal Data gaps persist in Financing gaps for Coastal erosion and communities face coastal hazard large-scale coastal storm surge events inequitable exposure to mapping, ecosystem defense and disproportionately flooding, erosion, and health monitoring, and ecosystem restoration; affect low-income storm surges, with integration of climate most projects remain households lacking limited relocation or projections into donor-driven with insurance, adaptation options planning limited national budget allocation High costs associated with managing dispersed coastlines across more than 700 islands and cays, exacerbating logistical and maintenance challenges 132 Resistance to Changes in Soil quality Inefficient High Import necessary behavioural due to transportation Dependence (Price changes in agricultural (Hydromorphology,Ero infrastructure to shocks, tariffs, supply industry sion, Pests) minimise food disruptions, pest loss/waste along value introduction) chains Educational and Food Quality and Pest Market Saturation and Weak implementation Technical Support to Control not properly Poor Connectivity of Climate Smart food SME Farmers managed security programmes Agriculture Climate Vulnerability No incentives to adopt (Saltwater intrusion, Climate Smart hurricanes, drought) Agriculture practices Extension services are poor (Agri training + Business Development in CSA practices are not financially marketable) Limited inclusion of Overreliance on Heavy dependence on Weak integration local communities in coastal tourism cruise tourism limits between tourism tourism value chains increases vulnerability revenue capture and development and Tourism and decision-making. to climate impacts and local economic national resilience ecosystem linkages. strategies. degradation. Uneven distribution of Insufficient Low levels of tourism Inadequate data tourism benefits enforcement of diversification and systems for between Nassau and environmental value-added services. monitoring tourism’s the Family Islands. regulations in social, economic, and high-tourism zones. environmental impacts. Inadequate access to Vulnerability to High infrastructure Lack of integrated quality infrastructure in hurricanes and sea costs due to planning across Family Islands (e.g., level rise due to geographic sectors (e.g., energy, health, education, insufficient fragmentation. transport, climate). transport). climate-resilient infrastructure. Insufficient affordable Poor wastewater and Limited public-private Insufficient data and Critical housing and community stormwater partnerships and digital systems for Infrastructure resilience management systems. investment channels. infrastructure infrastructure. monitoring and resilience. 133 Limited digital Outdated energy and Bottlenecks in Fragmented connectivity in remote water systems with transportation and institutional communities. high environmental logistics affecting trade coordination on impacts. and tourism. infrastructure projects. Unequal access to Insufficient integration Limited funding and Inadequate data healthcare services of climate resilience resources to upgrade systems for tracking across islands, and environmental health facilities for climate-related health particularly in rural and health in health climate resilience. impacts and planning vulnerable planning. adaptive responses. communities. Limited public Environmental High economic burden Weak coordination awareness on Determinant of Health from climate-sensitive between health, Health climate-related health diseases due to environment, and risks and adaptive inadequate prevention disaster management health behaviors. and response systems. sectors. Health infrastructure Water Security vulnerable to climate hazards like hurricanes, flooding, and heatwaves. Lack of incentives or High GHG emissions Continued heavy Weak integration of financial mechanisms from the energy sector reliance on imported renewable energy to encourage due to fossil fuel fossil fuels, leading to targets with national Energy household and small dependency. energy price volatility development plans business renewable and high operational and disaster risk energy adoption. costs. reduction strategies. Lack of public policy to Growing emissions Limited investment in Inadequate data incentivise the from the transport public transport collection and transition to electric sector, particularly infrastructure and monitoring systems to Transport vehicles (EVs). from road transport. alternative fuel track technologies. transport-related emissions. Inadequate public Lack of Limited financial Absence of a clear awareness and comprehensive valuation of natural governance community-level national forest assets like mangroves framework for involvement in inventories and data and coral reefs. integrating LULUCF LULUCF conservation efforts. on blue carbon targets across ecosystems to different ministries. accurately quantify GHG sinks. 134 Lack of public Limited capacity for Small industrial base Weak coordination awareness on monitoring leaks of limits economies of between household sources of HFC gases scale and innovation in environmental, sector emissions emissions reduction. industrial, and trade policies. Minimal integration of Limited emissions data Dependence on Data gaps and lack of gender and social for local industries and imported products with standardised IPPU inclusion in industrial no comprehensive high embedded reporting systems policy and workforce baseline exists for emissions and limited hinder emissions development. refrigerants or local alternatives. tracking and cement-related planning. emissions. Lack of climate considerations in industrial training Limited public Lack of Limited financial Weak coordination awareness and comprehensive resources and between waste participation in waste systems for hazardous incentives for waste management policies reduction, segregation, and electronic waste reduction and recycling and climate action and recycling disposal. initiatives. strategies. programmes. Waste Insufficient community Consequences of Underdeveloped Insufficient data and engagement in improper land fill waste-to-energy or monitoring systems decision-making for management include resource recovery for waste generation waste management fires, run off and toxic markets. and emissions. infrastructure. emissions causing public and environmental health risks 135 Table B.2: Outlines Opportunities across Priority Sectors Opportunities Sectors Social Environmental Economic Multidimensional Strengthening Scaling The recent Pursuing further community-based ecosystem-based debt-for-nature swap debt-for-nature coastal management adaptation (EBA) unlocks $163 million for swap-style financing and co-management of efforts, including marine conservation creates multidimensional MPAs can empower mangrove restoration and sustainable finance, opportunities by local stakeholders and coral nurseries, supporting long-term incentivising while protecting can deliver protective coastal adaptation conservation, and ecosystems. and biodiversity efforts. ensuring long-term benefits socio-environmental simultaneously. resilience Public education Integrated Coastal Blue carbon markets Investing in campaigns linking Zone Management offer future opportunities ecosystem-based marine health to storm (ICZM) provides a for monetising adaptation (EBA) Coastal & protection, fisheries, governance mangrove and seagrass protects coastal Marine and tourism resilience framework to align conservation. communities, reduces Resources can build public land use, fisheries, disaster recovery costs, support for and tourism policies and strengthens blue conservation. with resilience goals. carbon sinks. Eco-tourism and blue Enhancing economy initiatives partnerships with offer opportunities for NGOs and regional diversified, organisations can climate-resilient provide technical livelihoods. expertise for scaling marine conservation and monitoring. Engaging Schools, Crop mapping and Cold Storage Facilities Blend agriculture with Community Farms and Farmer Registry and transport containers tourism to create new NGOs in establishing with dedicated shipping income streams and Climate Smart routes raise awareness of Agriculture Systems Bahamian farming. CSA training initiatives Soil health and CSA Market Incentive Utilise technology (e.g., that inform and assist Seedling management Policies mobile apps, remote local farmers in sensing, precision Agriculture sustainability transition farming) to boost efficiency and engagement. 136 Reforestation of public CSA Extension Services areas with low (financing, supply maintenance edible aggregation, crops partnerships and climate resilience) Capacity Building Crop Quality Sustainable low cost Standardisation livestock feed Expand Promote ecotourism Diversify offerings (e.g., Leverage digital community-based and sustainable cultural, medical, technologies for smart tourism to empower marine tourism to agri-tourism) to increase tourism planning and local entrepreneurs protect biodiversity revenue and resilience. visitor management. and preserve cultural and attract niche Tourism heritage. markets. Develop tourism Invest in green Strengthen linkages training programmes to certifications and with local industries increase local sustainable (e.g., agriculture, crafts, employment and infrastructure for transport) to boost local career advancement. hotels and resorts. economies. Leverage digital Invest in green and Attract foreign Position The Bahamas infrastructure to blue infrastructure investment via blended as a regional leader in improve education and (e.g., mangroves, financing for sustainable climate-smart health services. permeable surfaces). infrastructure. infrastructure. Build resilient housing Expand decentralised Develop smart ports Adopt GIS for Critical and community centres renewable energy and airports to support infrastructure planning Infrastructure in vulnerable areas. systems (e.g., solar + logistics and tourism. and disaster storage). management. Engage communities Integrate nature-based Create jobs through Align national in co-designing solutions into urban large-scale infrastructure with SDGs resilient infrastructure and coastal planning. infrastructure projects and climate finance projects. with local labor. opportunities. Strengthen Upgrade health Invest in preventative Foster multisectoral community-based facilities to health measures to collaboration for holistic health education on climate-resilient reduce long-term climate and health climate change standards to ensure healthcare costs linked policies. impacts and resilience. continuity of care to climate change. during disasters. Health Expand telemedicine Integrate Develop green health Use improved data and mobile health environmental infrastructure projects to analytics to inform services to improve monitoring with health create jobs and improve climate-resilient health access in remote surveillance to predict sustainability. system planning. areas. and mitigate disease outbreaks. 137 Promoting Accelerating the Attracting private sector Implementing an community-owned transition to renewable investment in ambitious energy renewable energy energy sources like large-scale renewable transformation strategy Energy projects and providing solar and wind, and energy projects and that addresses energy training for green jobs exploring potential for developing a smart grid security, cost, and in the energy sector. geothermal energy infrastructure. resilience to climate (OTEC). impacts. Providing subsidies or Promoting the use of Phasing out fossil fuel Developing integrated tax breaks for EV electric and vehicles and attracting urban planning that Transport purchases to make low-carbon vehicles to private investment in EV supports sustainable them more accessible reduce air pollution charging infrastructure transport systems. to the public. and GHG emissions. and public transport. Enhancing public Developing and Leveraging Establishing education and implementing a nature-based solutions cross-sectoral capacity-building for national blue carbon and the "blue economy" partnerships between sustainable land and programme to to attract investment government, private LULUCF marine management. enhance GHG sink and create jobs in sector, and local capacity. eco-tourism and communities for fisheries. ecosystem-based adaptation. Promote green jobs Transition to low-GWP Incentivise low-emission Integrate IPPU into and training in refrigerants and technologies and national climate sustainable climate-friendly processes in strategies and MRV manufacturing and alternatives in construction, (Monitoring, Reporting, product management. industrial applications. refrigeration, and Verification) systems. IPPU manufacturing. Engage youth and Improve industrial Support circular Leverage regional underrepresented waste and by-product economy initiatives to cooperation for groups in clean management to reduce dependency on technology transfer and industrial innovation reduce environmental imported industrial knowledge sharing. initiatives. impacts. products. Expand public Implement methane Promote investment in Integrate waste education campaigns capture technologies circular economy management more to promote waste at landfills to reduce initiatives and explicitly into national reduction, reuse, and GHG emissions. waste-to-energy climate and sustainable recycling behaviors. projects. development frameworks. Waste Involve communities Develop infrastructure Support SMEs and Utilise data-driven and informal waste for hazardous waste entrepreneurs in approaches to improve collectors in formalised and e-waste recycling creating value-added waste sector recycling and to protect ecosystems. products from recycled transparency and policy composting materials. effectiveness. programmes. 138 Table B.3: Outlines Needs across Priority Sectors Needs Sectors Human Resource Technical Financial Training for coastal Improved hazard and Scaled-up investment in coastal managers, marine biologists, vulnerability mapping, defense infrastructure and GIS specialists, and incorporating sea-level rise, ecosystem restoration. community organisations to storm surge, and erosion implement and monitor data. ecosystem-based adaptation. Building local expertise in Monitoring systems for Mechanisms to channel tourism Coastal & Marine MPA enforcement, coral ecosystem health, fisheries levies or user fees into sustainable Resources restoration, and mangrove stocks, and coastal water coastal management. management. quality. Integration of ICZM and Access to innovative blue finance climate data into national instruments (blue bonds, carbon spatial planning and credits). development approval processes. Develop and expand Provide affordable and Establish accessible financing vocational and academic appropriate tools and options for small and medium-sized programmes focused on machinery to improve farmers to support start-up and modern farming techniques, efficiency and reduce labor expansion efforts. agribusiness, and sustainable intensity. Agriculture practices. Create targeted initiatives to Strengthen agricultural Introduce crop insurance and attract and retain young research institutions and field disaster risk financing to help people in agriculture through extension services to farmers recover from natural shocks internships, mentorship, and disseminate best practices like hurricanes and droughts. career pathways. and innovations. Skilled labor in hospitality, Enhanced data collection Increased investment in sustainable customer service, and and analysis tools for tourism tourism infrastructure and services. tourism management, trends, sustainability, and especially in Family Islands. visitor flows. Tourism Training in sustainable Upgraded digital Access to financing for small and tourism practices and digital infrastructure and systems medium-sized tourism enterprises, tools for tourism operators. for bookings, marketing, and especially in underserved areas. visitor experience. Skilled professionals in Access to modern tools and Increased public and private engineering, urban planning, technologies for investment in infrastructure, and infrastructure resilience infrastructure design, especially through blended finance (especially with climate maintenance, and monitoring and PPP models. adaptation expertise). (e.g., GIS, BIM, remote Critical sensing). Infrastructure 139 Capacity building and training Enforcement of up-to-date Sustainable financing mechanisms programmes for local infrastructure codes and for long-term infrastructure contractors, technicians, and standards, particularly for maintenance and climate adaptation public-sector infrastructure climate resilience and upgrades. managers. disaster risk reduction. Training healthcare workers Development of integrated Increased funding for in climate-sensitive health health and climate data climate-proofing health risks and emergency systems for early warning infrastructure and services. response. and response. Health Access to resilient medical Financial support for community infrastructure and health initiatives addressing climate-adaptive climate-related vulnerabilities. technologies. Specialised training for Technical assistance for grid Access to international climate engineers and technicians in modernisation and finance and concessional loans to Energy solar photovoltaic system integration of variable fund the transition to renewable installation and maintenance. renewable energy sources. energy. A trained workforce for the Expertise in developing and Funding to establish a national maintenance of electric and implementing smart traffic climate fund or green bonds to Transport hybrid vehicles. management systems and support sustainable transport e-mobility policies projects. A sufficient number of trained Advanced remote sensing Significant investment for personnel in ecological technologies and expert conducting national-scale blue LULUCF restoration, carbon training for monitoring GHG carbon assessments and for accounting, and data sinks in forests and coastal implementing large-scale mangrove analysis. ecosystems. restoration projects. Specialists in industrial Robust emissions data Investment in upgrading industrial emissions accounting, systems and MRV tools for equipment and systems to meet product lifecycle assessment, tracking IPPU-related GHGs. climate goals. and compliance. IPPU Workforce training in the use Access to climate-smart Financial incentives for private of low-emission materials and technologies and best sector adoption of clean technologies. practices in industrial technologies and sustainable processes. product use. Training for waste Development of robust waste Mobilisation of funding for waste management professionals in data collection and infrastructure upgrades and climate sustainable and emissions monitoring mitigation projects. climate-resilient practices. systems. Waste Capacity building for Access to modern waste Financial incentives for private community leaders to support processing technologies sector participation in recycling and local waste reduction such as composting and waste diversion. initiatives. methane capture. 140 C. Table outlining Mitigation Actions Modelled ID Sector Proposed Description Objective Methodology and Assumptions Gas Coverage Emission Reduction Potential Potential Other Potential Impacts and Effects Start Progress of Detail of Implementation Completion Lead Mitigation Renewable Date Implementation Year Agency/Agencies Strategies Energy Impacts 1 Energy Adoption and The Bahamas currently has a building code from To adopt and implement the revised building The code is expected to be implemented by Carbon By 2025, the energy demand has Increased The other potential Impacts have been 2020 Ongoing As of Oct. 2024: The draft is expected 2035 Department of Demand Implementation 2003. The revised building code is expected to codes for all new construction and renovations 2025; implementation expected by 2027. Dioxide (CO2), decreased and resilience increased due renewable associated with the following: by the end of December 2024, with Physical Planning, of Revised improve the minimum standards, provisions, and Assumed reduction of consumption in the Methane to the implementation of the new energy use Energy Security and Independence; internal review and public stakeholder Ministry of Public Building Code requirements for safe and stable building design and residential sector as follows: Lighting (CH4), building code. The estimated avoided through SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; consultations scheduled for the first Works, Building for all new construction methods. Improving building design can reduction: 520.6068 MWh by 2027, Nitrous Oxide GHG emissions related to the distributed SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; quarter of 2025. Full implementation is Control buildings and reduce the energy demand and enhance resilience. 3644.2476 MWh by 2035; AC: 740.894 (N2O) implementation of this action is 23.18 generation in SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and anticipated by the end of Q3 2025. renovations. The adoption and implementation of this revised MWh, 5189.258 MWh; Commercial Sector GgCO2eq by 2035. both the Infrastructure; Led by Ministry of Public Works. On building code will assist in the reduction of emissions reductions as follows: AC - 2000.985 by residential and SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and schedule. for commercial and residential buildings. The revision 2027, 14006.7087 MWh by 2035; Lighting - commercial Communities; of the building code is currently ongoing, with several 1074.0602 MWh by 2027, 7518.4215 MWh sector SDG12: Responsible Consumptions; stakeholder workshops and webinars. The revised by 2035 SDG13: Climate Action building code is expected to cover the entire Commonwealth of The Bahamas except for the Port area in Grand Bahama Island. In the 2013-2033 Energy Policy, the need to encourage the integration of renewable energy in building design the physical planning process is highlighted. This is encouraged to be integrated using an appropriately revised building code (Ministry of the Environment and Housing, 2013). In addition, The Bahamas is also currently in the process of adopting the regional Energy Efficiency Building Code. 2 Energy Lighting The adoption of lighting retrofits is usually seen as a To undertake comprehensive lighting retrofits The assumption is that fluorescent lights in Carbon The estimated avoided GHG emissions This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2020 Ongoing Lighting retrofits have been conducted 2035 Department of Demand Retrofits for all quick and low cost energy efficiency measure in for all Government occupied buildings in New buildings are being replaced with LEDs, Dioxide (CO2), are 8.37 GgCO2eq by 2030. not expected to associated with the following: for some government buildings in New Physical Planning, Government budlings. This energy efficiency measure will help Providence. To reduce energy demand and leading to a 60% reduction in electricity Methane include Energy Security and Independence; Providence. Detailed accounting of Ministry of Public Occupied reduce the energy demand in the government emissions in Government buildings in New consumption for lighting in Government (CH4), renewable SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; these retrofits need to be completed. Works, Ministry of Buildings in buildings. This measure is expected as one of the first Providence; To improve energy efficiency in buildings. This reduction can be further Nitrous Oxide energy SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; Environment and New results of the energy audits. Government occupied buildings in New enhanced with additional measures (N2O) potential SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Housing Providence Providence proposed from the energy audits. Infrastructure; Approximately, 14% of all buildings in New SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Providence are Government occupied, Communities; which represent 402 buildings. The retrofits SDG12: Responsible Consumptions; are implemented starting in 2020 and reach SDG 13: Climate Action; 100% by 2035. Assumed reduction: 10965 MWh by 2035 3 Energy Streetlighting Retrofits of streetlights through the replacement of To undertake lighting retrofits to reduce energy 75% of 24806 MWh will be reduced by Carbon The estimated avoided GHG emissions This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2020 Ongoing Streetlight project is currently ongoing. 2027 Bahamas Power Demand retrofit commonly high-pressure sodium bulbs to either LED consumption and emissions from streetlighting 2025, and the remaining 25 % by 2027. Dioxide (CO2), by 2035 are 18.94 GgCO2eq. not expected to associated with the following: As of October 2025 - Retrofit was 75% and Light Company, or solar lights to help reduce energy consumption. Methane include Energy Security and Independence; complete. Grand Bahama The streetlight project is currently ongoing. (CH4), renewable SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; Power Company Nitrous Oxide energy SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; (N2O) potential SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumptions; SDG 13: Climate Action; 4 Energy Energy Efficient Mandatory standards for air conditioning will To encourage the shift to more energy efficient AC Residential reduction: 54503.6184 MWh Carbon The estimated avoided GHG emissions This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2025 Planned As of July 2025, The Bahamas has 2035 Bahamas Bureau of Demand Standards for encourage the adoption of more energy efficient air conditioning systems by 2030, 72671.49 MWh by 2050, AC Dioxide (CO2), by 2035 is 121.59 GgCO2eq for use of not expected to associated with the following: launched the Green Choice Exemption Standards and air conditioning equipment. A shift to more energy efficient air Commercial reduction: 92509.9987 MWh by Methane more efficient air conditioning systems. include Energy Security and Independence; Programme which offers duty Quality || National systems conditioning systems will reduce energy consumption 2030, 123346.6649 MWh by 2050. (CH4), renewable SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; exemptions on eligible energy-efficient Emissions Registry and long term costs to the consumers Nitrous Oxide energy SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, (NER) (N2O) potential Infrastructure; and water heaters to households, SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and non-profit organizations, and Communities commercial entities, including retailers. SDG 12: Responsible Consumptions Programme aims to support the SDG 13: Climate Action national emissions reduction target of 30% by 2030. Under the programme: Households and non-profit organizations may import, annually, up to: 4 air conditioners 2 refrigerators 2 freezers 2 water heaters Commercial entities and retailers may import an unlimited number of eligible appliances for use in their business operations or for resale. 5 Energy 5 carbon Substituting diesel generator for photovoltaic systems To demonstrate the viability of photovoltaic Reduction of 13140 MWh of diesel for five Carbon Estimated total GHG emissions Increase in the The other potential Impacts have been 2017 Ongoing Significantly delayed due to project 2027 DEPP (lead), BNT, Demand neutral Marine will demonstrate the social, environmental and systems in creating carbon neutral facilities facilities by 2026 Dioxide (CO2), reduction is 5.77 Gg CO2-eq. by 2035 use of solar PV associated with the following: management related issues. Meeting TNC, Department of Protected Area economic feasibility of climate change mitigation Methane technology and Energy Security and Independence; the Challenge of 2020 in the Bahamas Marine Resources facilities through implementing innovative carbon neutral (CH4), reduced fuel SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, is ongoing project that is currently (photovoltaic solutions that will contribute to the effective Nitrous Oxide use at the sites SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; funded by the GEF substitute for management of marine protected areas and to reduce (N2O) SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and diesel risks associated to the use of diesel such as “pollution Infrastructure; generators) / storage”. Diesel fuel requires storage of bulk fuels on SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and the islands and the transfer of fuel from bulk storage Communities to monthly storage for daily use. This storage and SDG 12: Responsible Consumptions transfer increases the risk of a spill into the water or SDG 13: Climate Action ground resources of the park. The proposed sites are (i) Visitors Centre for Warderick Wells (ECLSP), (ii) West Andros Fee collection booth, (iii) Bonefish Pond high visibility demo pilot. Up to 3 carbon neutral Marine Protected Area facilities (photovoltaic substitute for diesel generators (minimum 1,052,769.6 tCO2-equivalent direct emission reduction over 15 years). 141 6 Transport 50% of new Adoption of electric vehicles simultaneous with the To increase the sale of electric vehicles by 50% Electric vehicles are assumed to represent Carbon The total GHG emission reduction This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2016 Ongoing The Bahamas currently has 2035 Ministry of Energy vehicle sales to transition to renewables will help reduce fossil fuel by 2035; 35% of the sales of vehicles by 2030, 50% Dioxide (CO2), potential is estimated at 58.24 not expected to associated with the following: approximately 7% electric vehicles in and Transport, be electric and consumption in the transport sector To increase energy efficiency in the transport by 2035. Hybrid vehicles are assumed to Methane GgCO2-eq by 2030 include SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; the new car sales locally. The CCEAU the 30% to be sector; represent 15% of the sales by 2030, 30% by (CH4), renewable SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, Government has introduced over 50 hybrid by 2035 To reduce emissions in the transport sector 2035. Nitrous Oxide energy SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; electric vehicles into its vehicle fleet. (N2O) potential SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and The Government has also introduced Infrastructure; incentives to reduce duties on electric SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and vehicles Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; SDG 13: Climate Action 7 Electricity 11MW Solar PV The Bahamas energy mix is currently dominated by To increase the penetration of renewable Bundled with electricity generation mitigation Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 11MW of install The other potential Impacts have been 2020 Ongoing 11 MW of utility scale solar installed on 2025 Grand Bahama Generation Systems fossil fuels. The Bahamas has declared 45% energy by 45% by 2035 action from renewables. Assumed that Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is solar PV associated with the following: Grand Bahama Power Company installed in renewables in the electricity generation by 2035. 11MW of solar PV are installed in 2025 Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 system on Energy Security and Independence; Grand Bahama Installation of renewable energy systems will help (CH4), island. SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; achieve this goal as well as significantly assist in Nitrous Oxide SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, achieving emission reduction (N2O) SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; SDG 13: Climate Action 8 Electricity An additional The Bahamas energy mix is currently dominated by To increase the penetration of renewable Bundled with electricity generation mitigation Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 11MW of install The other potential Impacts have been 2020 Ongoing 9 MW of utility scale solar installed on 2035 Grand Bahama Generation 9MW of Solar in fossil fuels. The Bahamas has declared 45% energy by 45% by 2035 action from renewables. Assumed that 5MW Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is solar PV associated with the following: Grand Bahama Power Company Grand renewables in the electricity generation by 2035. of solar PV are installed in 2026 and 4MW Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 system on Energy Security and Independence; Bahamas by Installation of renewable energy systems will help by 2035. (CH4), island. SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; 2035 with 5MW achieve this goal as well as significantly assist in Nitrous Oxide SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, in 2026 achieving emission reduction (N2O) SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; SDG 13: Climate Action 9 Electricity 60 MW of solar The Bahamas energy mix is currently dominated by To increase the penetration of renewable Bundled with electricity generation mitigation Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 60MW of install The other potential Impacts have been 2026 Planned 60 MW of Solar PV utility scale with 2027 Bahamas Power Generation in New fossil fuels. The Bahamas has declared 45% energy by 45% by 2035 action from renewables. Assumed that Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is solar PV associated with the following: 10MWh of solar storage and Light, Ministry of Providence by renewables in the electricity generation by 2035. 60MW of solar PV are installed in 2027 Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 system on Energy Security and Independence; Energy and 2027 with Installation of renewable energy systems will help (CH4), island. SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; Transport 10MWh of achieve this goal as well as significantly assist in Nitrous Oxide SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, battery storage achieving emission reduction. This action also (N2O) SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; includes 10MWh of battery storage. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; SDG 13: Climate Action 10 Electricity 177MW of LNG The energy mix of The Bahamas remains Reduce greenhouse gas emissions relative to Bundled with electricity generation from LNG Carbon The total GHG emission reduction support the The other potential Impacts have been 2026 Planned 177MW of LNG installed 2027 Bahamas Power Generation plant in New predominantly dependent on fossil fuels, particularly conventional diesel and heavy fuel oil used for and some small diesel Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is further associated with the following: and Light, Ministry of Providence by diesel and heavy fuel oil, which are used for the electricity generation; Methane estimated at 0.99 GgCO2eq by 2035 penetration of Energy and 2027 majority of electricity generation across the islands. In (CH4), renewable into SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; Transport alignment with its enhanced Nationally Determined Enhance grid stability and energy security by Nitrous Oxide the electricity SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Contribution (NDC 3.0), The Bahamas has set a ensuring a reliable supply of lower-emission (N2O) grid Infrastructure; target of achieving 45 percent renewable energy in fuel while renewable energy capacity is scaled SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and electricity generation by 2035. up; Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; Nevertheless, the country faces resource and Facilitate the integration of variable renewable SDG 13: Climate Action technological constraints that limit the widespread energy sources (such as solar and wind) into deployment of renewable energy technologies—such the national grid; and as limited land area, grid integration challenges, and high capital costs. Consequently, the introduction of Serve as a transitional measure to enable the lower-emission transition fuels, including liquefied country to achieve its NDC target of 45 percent natural gas (LNG), is expected to play a stabilizing renewable electricity generation by 2035, while role in the national grid and support the gradual maintaining affordability and reliability of energy decarbonization of the power sector while renewable services. capacity is expanded. 11 Electricity 10MW Solar PV The Bahamas energy mix is currently dominated by To increase the penetration of renewable Bundled with electricity generation mitigation Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 11MW of install The other potential Impacts have been 2020 Ongoing 11 MW of utility scale solar installed on 2025 Bahamas Power Generation Systems fossil fuels. The Bahamas has declared 45% energy by 45% by 2035 action from renewables. Assumed that Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is solar PV associated with the following: Grand Bahama and Light, Ministry of installed in renewables in the electricity generation by 2035. 10MW of solar PV are installed in 2025 Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 system on Energy Security and Independence; Energy and Family Islands Installation of renewable energy systems will help (CH4), island. SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; Transport achieve this goal as well as significantly assist in Nitrous Oxide SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, achieving emission reduction (N2O) SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; SDG 13: Climate Action 12 Electricity 55MW Solar PV The Bahamas energy mix is currently dominated by To increase the penetration of renewable Bundled with electricity generation mitigation Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 55 MW of The other potential Impacts have been 2026 Planned 55 MW of solar PV installed from 2026 2035 Bahamas Power Generation Systems fossil fuels. The Bahamas has declared 45% energy by 45% by 2036 action from renewables. Assumed that Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is installed solar associated with the following: to 2035. and Light, Ministry of installed in renewables in the electricity generation by 2035. 30MW of solar PV are installed in 2027, an Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 PV on island Energy Security and Independence; Projects confirmed and scheduled to Energy and Family Islands Installation of renewable energy systems will help additional 7.45 installed by 2030 and the (CH4), SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; be completed by 2027: Transport achieve this goal as well as significantly assist in remainder installed by 2035 Nitrous Oxide SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, Abaco - 13.3 MW Solar PV achieving emission reduction (N2O) SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; Eleuthera - 8.7MW Solar PV, SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Exuma - 3MW Solar PV, Infrastructure; Long Island - 3MW Solar PV, SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Cat Island - 1MW Solar PV, Communities; San Salvador - 1MW Solar PV, 1.6 SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; MW LNG SDG 13: Climate Action Projects to be started soon, : Andros - 1MW Solar PV, Mayaguana - 0.65MW Solar PV, Inagua - 3.8MW Solar PV, Crooked Island - 1MW Solar PV, Acklins - 1MW Solar PV, 142 13 Electricity 78.54MW of The energy mix of The Bahamas remains Reduce greenhouse gas emissions relative to Bundled with electricity generation from LNG Carbon The total GHG emission reduction support the The other potential Impacts have been 2026 Planned 78.54MW of LNG installed. 2027 Bahamas Power Generation LNG plant in predominantly dependent on fossil fuels, particularly conventional diesel and heavy fuel oil used for and some small diesel Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is further associated with the following: Projects confirmed and scheduled to and Light, Ministry of Family Islands diesel and heavy fuel oil, which are used for the electricity generation; Methane estimated at 0.99 GgCO2eq by 2035 penetration of be completed by 2027: Energy and by 2027 majority of electricity generation across the islands. In (CH4), renewable into SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; Abaco - 29.97 MW LNG Transport alignment with its enhanced Nationally Determined Enhance grid stability and energy security by Nitrous Oxide the electricity SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Eleuthera - 19.97MW LNG Contribution (NDC 3.0), The Bahamas has set a ensuring a reliable supply of lower-emission (N2O) grid Infrastructure; Exuma - 8.5MW LNG target of achieving 45 percent renewable energy in fuel while renewable energy capacity is scaled SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Long Island - 3.6 MW LNG electricity generation by 2035. up; Communities; Cat Island - 2.4MW LNG SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; San Salvador - 1.6 MW LNG Nevertheless, the country faces resource and Facilitate the integration of variable renewable SDG 13: Climate Action Bimini - 4MW LNG technological constraints that limit the widespread energy sources (such as solar and wind) into Harbour Island - 6.5MW LNG deployment of renewable energy technologies—such the national grid; and Farmer's Cay - 0.25MW LNG as limited land area, grid integration challenges, and Black Point & Staniel Cay - 1.25MW high capital costs. Consequently, the introduction of Serve as a transitional measure to enable the LNG lower-emission transition fuels, including liquefied country to achieve its NDC target of 45 percent Moore's Island - 0.5MW LNG natural gas (LNG), is expected to play a stabilizing renewable electricity generation by 2035, while Projects to be started soon: role in the national grid and support the gradual maintaining affordability and reliability of energy Andros - , 5.6MW LNG decarbonization of the power sector while renewable services. Mayaguana - 0.65MW Solar PV, capacity is expanded. Inagua - 3.8MW Solar PV, 14 Electricity 20MW of The Bahamas energy mix is currently dominated by To increase the penetration of renewable Bundled with electricity generation mitigation Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 20 MW of The other potential Impacts have been 2025 Ongoing 11.4MW of distributed solar PV are 2035 Bahamas Power Generation distributed solar fossil fuels. The Bahamas has declared 45% energy by 45% by 2036 action from renewables. Assumed that Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is installed associated with the following: installed in 2025, a increasing to and Light, Ministry of across The renewables in the electricity generation by 2035. 11.4MW of distributed solar PV are installed Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 distributed Energy Security and Independence; 15MW in 2030 and 20MW in 2035 Energy and Bahamas by Installation of renewable energy systems will help in 2025, a increasing to 15MW in 2030 and (CH4), solar PV on SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; Transport 2035, achieve this goal as well as significantly assist in 20MW in 2035 Nitrous Oxide island SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, increasing from achieving emission reduction (N2O) SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; 11.4MW in SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and 2025 to 15MW Infrastructure; by 2030 and SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and 20MW by 2035 Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; SDG 13: Climate Action 15 Electricity Reduce Reducing transmission and distribution losses, To increase the energy efficiency of the Assumed that reduction from 10% T&D Carbon The total GHG emission reduction support the The other potential Impacts have been 2022 Ongoing New Providence Transmission and 2035 Bahamas Power Generation Transmission reduces the amount of electricity to meet demand. transmission and distribution system by losses in 2018, to 9.3% in 2025, 8% in 2030, Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is further associated with the following: Distribution Improvements: and Light, Ministry of and Distribution Capital investments are required in transmission reducing losses 7% in 2035, and 6% in 2050. Methane estimated at 53.70 GgCO2eq by 2035 penetration of Energy Security and Independence; The Transmission and Distribution Energy and losses to 7% by equipment and meters. (CH4), renewable into SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; Foundational Upgrade will improve Transport 2035 Nitrous Oxide the electricity SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; power reliability and resiliency in New (N2O) grid SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Providence with the addition of a new Infrastructure; switching station and new SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and transmission lines, the proper looping Communities; of the transmission system and SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; reconductoring work, and substation SDG 13: Climate Action protection upgrades, as well as targeted distribution protection schemes and voltage regulation. 16 Electricity Pilot Project for The Bahamas is currently in discussions with the To increase the penetration of renewable Assumed an installation of 30kW OTEC Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 30kW of OTEC The other potential Impacts have been 2022 Ongoing 30kW OTEC system installed by 2030 Ministry of Generation a 30kW OTEC European Union (EU), Caricom, CCREE, and SIDs energy by 45% by 2035 plant in 2030 Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is associated with the following: 2030.The Bahamas is currently in Environment and Plant Dock to develop a pilot OTEC facility. However, OTEC Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 Energy Security and Independence; discussions with the European Union Natural Resources is still seen as being in its experimental stage globally. (CH4), SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; (EU), Caricom, CCREE, and SIDs However, The Bahamas experience reverse Nitrous Oxide SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, Dock to develop a pilot OTEC facility. geothermal conditions of the water resources and (N2O) SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; However, OTEC is still seen as being cold-water sources from boreholes may be utilized for SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and in its experimental stage globally the OTEC process. Cold water via boreholes is Infrastructure; extensively utilized for seawater reverse osmosis SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and (SWRO) and seawater district cooling (SDC), and Communities; may possibly also be obtained for OTEC from deep SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; wells, rather than cold seawater direct from the marine SDG 13: Climate Action environment. The Bahamas is presently exploring both options of accessing the cold-water source, for the pilot OTEC. Further extreme interest in the pairing of OTEC+ SDC for Data Centres / Super Computers as the paired technologies can effectively address the two (2) primary requirements of energy and cost-effective cooling. Required energy + cooling are two requirements for Artificial Intelligence (AI). The attempt to coordinate all OTEC related activities via Academic Institutions, for the long-term efforts of deploying the OTEC technology within The Bahamas. We presently have the Memorandum-Of-Understanding (MOU) between the Institute of Ocean Energy, Saga University Japan (IOES) and the University of The Bahamas (UB). Our hope to also have an MOU in place between Oceanic Platform of the Canary Islands (PLOCAN) and The Bahamas, all with the necessary private sector support. 17 Land Use, Conservation The Pine Island project seeks to innovate community To improve the sustainable management Annual carbon savings by the benefit of the Carbon The estimated GHG emission reduction This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2015 Ongoing Under the Pine Islands – 2026 Forestry Unit Land Use and Sustainable management plans for newly gazetted forest areas. practices of existing and new forest reserves; project through integration of forest domain Dioxide (CO2), is 397.71 GgCO2-eq by 2035 This action not expected to associated with the following: Forest/Mangrove Innovation and Change and management Natural biodiversity, species and trees with crops and To increase emission sinks; into land-use planning improved forest is bundled with mitigation action 18 include 2: Zero hunger; Integration (Grand Bahama, New Forestry practices and livestock will increase emission sinks from native To improve biodiversity in selected area management. They avoided deforestation renewable SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; Providence, Abaco and Andros), these the trees, less fertiliser use, increase habitat and build together with mangrove rehabilitation efforts energy SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; measures have been identified and establishment resilience against one-off disease. Under the Pine estimated up to 381.151 GgCO2- eq. This potential SDG 13: Climate Action, sites have been assessed. [2025 of a forest Islands – Forest/Mangrove Innovation and Integration data was entered into the model as SDG:14 Life below water, Update]: • Mangrove Systems: 50 estate with 20% (Grand Bahama, New Providence, Abaco, and recommended by the project. SDG 15: Life on Land hectares under active restoration with land cover Andros), these measures have been identified, and site-specific management plans sites have been assessed. implemented • Implementation Status: Restoration activities ongoing with community-based monitoring protocols established • Stakeholder Engagement: Participatory management approach involving local communities in indicator species tracking and ecosystem monitoring • Completion Timeline: Project activities continuing through 2026 ; MRV system established for tracking carbon stock changes and ecosystem health indicators 18 Land Use, Reestablishmen Reestablishment and rehabilitation of Davis Creek in To increase emission sinks; to rehabilitate and According to recent studies, mangroves Carbon The estimated GHG emission reduction This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2015 Ongoing Under the Pine Islands – 2026 Forestry Unit Land Use t& Andros will improve sequestration potential re-establish Davis Creek in Andros contain an average of 1,023 tonnes of Dioxide (CO2), is 397.71 GgCO2-eq. by 2035. This not expected to associated with the following: Forest/Mangrove Innovation and Change and Rehabilitation of carbon per hectare. This model will pilot action is bundled with mitigation action include 2: Zero hunger; Integration (Grand Bahama, New Forestry 50 ha of Davis restoration efforts for up to 50 hectares 17 renewable SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; Providence, Abaco and Andros), these Creek, Andros across a potential 500 hectares of mangrove energy SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; measures have been identified and Ecosystem forest, increasing carbon sequestration up to potential SDG 13: Climate Action, sites have been assessed. Restoration 14.563 GgCO2-eq. This data was entered SDG:14 Life below water, activities 70% complete as of into the model as recommended by the SDG 15: Life on Land September 2025.. project. 143 19 Land Use, Net-zero This mitigation action aims to achieve net-zero To transform the LULUCF sector into a net-zero Assumption that the emissions in the Carbon The estimated GHG emission reduction This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2022 Ongoing Through the Food and Agriculture 2026 Forestry Unit Land Use emissions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Land Use, or net-negative emissions system by 2050, LULUCF sector will be zero by 2050 or Dioxide (CO2), is 1656.11 GgCO2-eq. by 2035 not expected to associated with the following: Organisation of the United Nations Change and LULUCF by Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector by thereby contributing significantly to the become a sink include 2: Zero hunger; (FAO) and the national Forestry Unit Forestry 2050 2050 through a combination of enhanced carbon achievement of national long-term low-emission renewable SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; (Ministry of Environment & Natural sequestration and reduced emissions from land-based development objectives and NDC targets. energy SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; Resources), The Bahamas has activities. The action focuses on strengthening the potential SDG 13: Climate Action, initiated a project titled “Preparation of sector’s role as a carbon sink by improving forest SDG:14 Life below water, Strategic Framework to Reduce management, promoting ecosystem restoration, and SDG 15: Life on Land Deforestation and Forest Degradation adopting sustainable land-use practices that balance in The Bahamas”. Its objective is to development needs with environmental protection. improve planning and monitoring of Key components include: forest- and land-use-related activities • Forest conservation and rehabilitation: Expanding for both mitigation and adaptation. and maintaining forest cover through reforestation and • The project includes developing a afforestation programmes targeting degraded or national forest and land-use marginal lands. monitoring system covering • Mangrove and coastal ecosystem restoration: mangroves, coppice forests and other Protecting and restoring mangrove forests and other ecosystems. blue-carbon ecosystems to enhance carbon storage • Institutional capacity building is and coastal resilience. included (data integration across • Sustainable land management: Implementing agencies) to support transparent policies to reduce land degradation, prevent illegal land-use, land-use change and logging, and manage agricultural expansion forestry (LULUCF) accounting. sustainably. Legislative/regulatory upgrades: • Improved data and monitoring systems: • The Forestry Act (Amended 2014) Strengthening national forest inventories, land-use and associated Forestry Regulations mapping, and MRV systems to ensure transparent now explicitly include provisions for accounting of carbon fluxes in the LULUCF sector. carbon sequestration and reforestation in forest management plans and protect mangrove ecosystems. • A more recent national regulation titled Emissions Reduction Initiatives and Incentives Regulations (2025) establishes a framework for entities to participate in emission-reduction initiatives, including those aligned with net-zero efforts 20 Industrial 20% Phase Encouraging alternatives to HFC refrigerants through To reduce use of HFC refrigerants The Bahamas has made a phase-down HFCs Not estimated as this action was not This action is The other potential Impacts have been 2022 Ongoing The Bahamas ratified the Kigali 2035 Ozone Unit Processes Down of HFCs ratification of Kigali amendment and also improving commitment as per the Kigali amendment to modelled. But due to the significance of not expected to associated with the following: Amendment to the Montreal Protocol and Product by 2035 energy efficiency in the sector. the Montreal Protocol. It is anticipated that this action in the sector it is included include SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and on 30 May 2023, thereby legally Use (IPPU) data will be collected to include estimations among the mitigation actions to be renewable communities; committing to the phasedown of in the next inventory; therefore, this considered for NDC3.0 energy SDG 13: Climate Action hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the mitigation will be included in the modelling in potential refrigeration and air-conditioning future iterations. sector. With this ratification, the country has established the regulatory foundation for its mitigation action targeting a 20 percent reduction in HFC use by 2030. Implementation to date includes preparatory steps to develop import/export licensing, a national baseline inventory, and training for servicing standards; however, full operationalisation equipment transitions and system-wide data collection remains ongoing. 21 Waste/ Installation of The Bahamas energy mix is currently dominated by To increase the penetration of renewable It was assumed that a 15MW Waste to Carbon The total GHG emission reduction 15MW The other potential Impacts have been 2030 Planned [Update: Oct 2024] New Providence 2035 Ministry of Electricity 15MW Waste to fossil fuels. The Bahamas has declared 30% energy by 30% by 2030 Energy Plant would be installed in The Dioxide (CO2), potential with the bundled renewables is renewables of associated with the following: Landfill Power Plant is a 15 MW Environment and Generation Energy renewables in the electricity generation by 2030. Bahamas by 2035 Methane estimated at 641.18 GgCO2eq by 2035 waste to Energy Security and Independence; biopower project, currently in its Housing/ Installation of renewable energy systems will help (CH4), energy SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being; feasibility stage Department of achieve this goal as well as significantly assist in Nitrous Oxide SDG 8: Decent work and Economic Growth; Environment Health achieving emission reduction (N2O) SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Services/ Solid Infrastructure; Waste Authority SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 12: Responsible Consumption; SDG 13: Climate Action 144